20 Episode results for "risk manager"

Md. Nafeez Al Tarik  Most of the Time the Price is Right

My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

18:38 min | 2 years ago

Md. Nafeez Al Tarik Most of the Time the Price is Right

"Should've had frosted. The Mark it should down some more due diligence under stand why the market is why stop is falling with large volume. So if I do the proper deal diligence at that time brew up that good found that that asset quality was faith or compatible where they are a problem that could cut my position and the stop loss. Hello, fellow risk-takers in welcome to my worst investment ever stories of lost the keep you winning in our community. We know that to win an investing. You must take risk but the win big you've got to reduce it. My name is Andrew stance from ace knots investment research, and I'm here with featured guests fees altering no fees. Are you ready to rock? Yeah. I'm betty. All right. Well, let me give the audience little background the fees is head of research investment at city brokers LTd in dot com. Bangladesh, he has eight years of research and investment experience in the equity markets. Bango dash any provides his research to foreign and local institutions prior to working at city brokerage. He served as chief investment officer Asia tiger capital partners asset management LTd where he was responsible for a couple of mutual funds. Valued at about twelve million US dollars in twenty fifteen in two thousand sixteen the flagship fund generated accumulated Shula tive outperformance respecting a benchmark for about eight percent. He also had experienced an expertise in asset liability management having worked for treasury department of eastern Bank Limited and as an assistant vice president in Royal Bengal investment management company. Ltd the fees holds an MBA and a bachelor's degree from the university of Dhaka faculty of business. Studies department of finance. He's also like me. Me a sea bay charter order. Unlike me, he is a certified financial risk manager in his spare time like me. He's an entrepreneur running a financial coaching institute where he provides training in the field of financial modeling equity valuation risk management. Advanced excel skills for CFA an F RAM candidates. He also has been a guest lecturer at the finance department at a local university where he's taught financial engineering and advanced financial engineering courses in BB, an MBA program and last he's also a c s a society, Bangladesh, volunteer in that's awesome. That's my area that I enjoy so much as volunteering in have actually been to duck to meet all of all in tears in the past. So the fees take a minute fill in any further tidbits about your. I think you covered Joe adult in a days anything to add for. All right. Well, now, it's time to share your worst investment ever since no one goes into their worst investment thinking, it will be tell us a bit about the circumstances leading up to it. And then tell us your story. Yeah. I t- before mentioning by worst investments, I would like to highlight the macroeconomic context under which I made the mistake. So bad girl story would always be very helpful to the listeners to understand the scenario. So my worst investment actually to bless in two thousand thirty as if I go back few years, we have seen the stock market. Bob will in the cousin in on luggage. So contract the negative impact of Lois financial crisis that plastic. Do puzzles seven may jobs for this a win for expansion to policy so they cut interested to low allowed the broad money will do an unsustainable high level. Yeah. In two thousand and the Royne at the broad money girl. The went up by fever sent the private sector created drove the window by twenty two percent Decem time. There was very lenient Martin Linden regulations. Frank. Daca tool flown for one topic Wiki so all these things are true of the stock market to announce sustainable high level the stock market. The Ben index away doubt by sixty two percent in two thousand nine and a three percent in two thousand day. Then we have seen a stop big trash into those in in December and is congenial into custody evident two thousand twelve I joined the investment industry right of their stock market crashed in two thousand eleven mitt these very gloomy environment to start my career, but I can't timing might career. So in fact, the market window and more than fifty five percent humiliatingly into council evident thousand jobs, so after being sold off by motivate if I percents in depositor dean, I think the market has offered a lot of bargain opportunities. So. Independent. Thirty had many stocks went acquisition mega lot of money. The two thousand turned in was very difficult year for Bangladesh economy because of the political in stablity, we had an election dealing generally do causing for two thousand thirteen we have seen a lot of blockage or the call by adopt and also and that video in infect into those eleven twelve interred in the Montreal to tighten the metric all to contract inflation and also may be a little bit of. So in fact, into council Giles lead the market solo by fiber said many banks actually got hit in the banking sector where solo by more so many bands when trading below their book value per share, so particular Bank, which was my worst investment private sector Bank, mashed on back. Emeka had a massive collection duty video the asset quality of the banking sector. Started drinking in depositi as I understood that the quality of the company has degraded and the fundamentally the company was very weak. But I thought the price had commented even more. So the stock went down to apathy our share when I took the position we had earlier. And the first mistake was assuming that the depressed price to boot Valerie show as an indicator of metric value company. I was Teela route Jamil lists that time. So part of that mystic was due to my experience. The stock went down by more after buying it. So the stop mowing down by another fifty percent when it took the position. So but Luke air the Bryce actually seen that. I was missing something. Maybe I was missing something by new. Amok? It knew something that I did. So I should have had trust the market should have down some more due diligence under stand why the market is why the stock is falling with large volume. So if I do the proper duties at that, I grew up that good found that that asset quality was orbital. What are from the ankle cut my position and the stop loss since I was a very inexperienced lists having two years of experience that time. So I did not have the right relationship to go for the management discussion. Or rightfully experienced understand that at the low Bryce boot Saturday, she actually was a trap. The book value was overstated that dives is the company did not begin revision for its non-performing loads. So I got some of that have been, but I was looking for information that actually supported my hypotheses. I shouldn't listen to the contrary of bananas, and I should have a mouth way. Equals migrant farm mission by us and probably some Gunston which made me more confident in I became very overconfident. Bet abyss stock will also fat even to the company's shown consecutive quarterly losses. The storm was living down one day to Dhaka eleven point five seato by share. Remember, we had a cost value of fifty dug up a share. So eventually we took turn percent loss on that stock. And it was extremely extremely painful. I learned a great lesson from that. And I never made the same mistake later. It might carry a fantastic. Well, that's a that's a real good story. I like the fact that it highlights investing in banks because that's a different animal if you were to summarize for the listeners kind of what did you learn from this experience, what would be the less? I think is like. There are four different types of mistakes that had done in twelve the story. So number one is I did not realize that that some stocks that have been looks very very cheap, but they achieve for the right reason, the stock was collected massively. But he was extremely overvalue before that ambassade quantity deteriorated massive deal the Bank. I did not realize how how bad it could be number two. I should have trusted the Bryce action. So I could cut down my losses with a stop it any shale Persson loss and Broadway would do the more due-diligence Billy understand that in order to generate outside-half to country, but we have to write as well. So sometimes the market is ride. So I decided that the price action that times I should have looked at the price. Actual mauguin. Fully I should have done brokered. Due-diligence man, probably Belk odor help reduce my losses. Number three, especially when I've seen that the price action that is something in the market that I don't know. So I should have initiated a management media should have talked to the management. Maybe I talked to settle the analyst may be I talk if one of his students that died mentioned that he had a management meeting, the quality of the management is very or and he rated negative devil. The stop, but I did not ban offense should read because of my involvement by with Louis heavily position. And the number four, I maybe democracy Nettie as well. In two thousand thirty the interest rates are very very high very interested with more than percent Persson the time at this event in the banking sector net interest margin at we together quality banks prosecuted again on the fall in the coming years. We can see the doctor base I did not expect that interest in dries to that high level. We the benefit of hindsight, I should have had zero exposure. To Bank is a and from nicer more way to fight him ten year treasury Bob's while will you've really thought through. I'm very impressed about how you've methodically thought through that. And I think if you share this with your students, you really can help them understand about risk management. Let me summarize some of the takeaways that I got from your story of the first one is this really comes down to a failure to properly assess the risk you talked about asset quality you also talked about the idea of maybe executing some kind of stop loss. But you didn't and one of the other other ways that we manage risk is the sizing of a position, right? So, you know, yeah, we like to stock, but how big is that in our portfolio in those three points that I would go through his forest the risk side of things. I think the other thing that many people don't always think about it. And I was a Bank analyst for my. Ten years of my career is that a banks operate on a sliver of equity and the result of that is that if the if the assets, meaning the loans that they've given out if they were to deteriorate just a little bit. Let's say ten percent of the total assets all loans at a Bank has goes bad that could literally wipe out all of the equity of the Bank. And that's the reason why banks trade at low multiples. They generally always do. So even in a bubble time. The multiples of the banks will be lower than the multiples of the overall market. In fact, the Chinese markets in interesting run right now because some people may say well Chinese market looks little the cheap Chinese A-Shares. But remember that thirty percent of the market is banks, and they're trading at very low multiples. If you strip those out, you find that the underlying other companies are not that cheap. And then also, you know, you mentioned I I like what you talked about about the macro environment. And you gave us a good setting. And I think it's really a great. Investment can go wrong because of the macro environment. And I think for the listeners that's a really great lesson to keep remembering that you have to think of the macro environment. I think a lot of beginner investors. They go in and think I'm gonna read some books on investing in learn about how to value a company, and then I'm going to really apply fundamentals to build a great portfolio. Well, the macro environment can crush you. And the last thing that I'm gonna talk about is there's a TV game show when I was growing up, and I'm gonna tell you the name of it right now. And you'll understand why I'm saying it was called the price is right. And that was the name of the TV game show. I used to watch a lot when I was a kid in. The fact is is that most of the time the price is right in the stock market. We've got a lot of people looking at the market, and that's the paradox the price is right. But as you said in order to be a successful active fund manager at some point you've got to make a bet that the price is wrong. And when you make that bet you really really have a high level of research that you gotta do. And I think that's those are the lessons. Is there? Anything you'd add to that. I think the key suggestions from these mistakes did there several key suggestions number one understand that there are a lot of value traps in the markets don't forty net trap. And number two. Is you already mentioned that most of the time? The prices arrived to look at the price action is and you have to very and this like obedient outweigh the market. Looks like Mark low something that internal number when you are investing in banks. You have to have an extra due diligence on the board the covenants the management that accounting policies, the risks managing elicits, the lone rider policies provision bonds and do the extra team that you have to look at when you are investing medicines on appointment spatial died of research compared to other manufacturing up is listening to the Pierre analysts and fund managers patients who have a contrarian bit that you have. So you should have a misleading bay at ancient to their hypoc. Understanding that you are human being the human being have a lot of biases banish him off feely haven bias if in my case, I had a few we will bias as a I listed those dogs. It's like confirmation bias on racism buys endowment, bias, Google configures as status quo buys in my guess is like it was the endowment and status quo. That they picked me a not at that time. And also all this unique to talk to the management to get a vibe about the management. How one of the people who had that data what incentives on fix interests of not especially when you was issued is better be gift to extract eulogists, and the last gestion is that in investment asset allocation is the key is extremely she decision. In fact, you now see economic it talks a lot of team currently and making. Mental issue, and to do that you have to understand the macro environment alongside don't have been experience in time to understand that at the wine. So I graduated moved over the years dose of understanding the microbes lab. Well, I can say that you are serving your students. Well with all the work you've done to analyze in think about it. So let's wrap this up with the last question, which is what is your number one goal for the next twelve months latching in the next few months. My number one goal is to the as you know, I have a flu type job any mice bedtime may each my students about a in in the next few months. I would like to put a greater emphasis on my work life balance because of the personnel married with a daughter, so she is a four years at three months. So I want to have more quality time with her because this is the time, I should give more attention. So apart from my work at I would like to have a better work life balance in the next two months at this moment, I feel a little bit. Imbalanced? Yes. And that's the great thing about four year olds is that they let you know when you're out of balance because they cry in these cream, dad. Yep. Okay. Well, that's a great goal for the next twelve months. Well listeners there you have it another story of loss to keep you winning to find more stories like this previous episodes and resources to help you reduce your risk. Visit my worst investment effort dot com, and as we ramp up fees. Thank you again for coming on the show. I know it's painful talking about are losers. But our listeners are learning to win as a result. Do you have any parting words for the audience? I think I think investing is a passion. So they'll do all this mistakes at mistakes, eventually the teachers we have to learn by doing mistakes, but we have to keep keep in mind that we draw Nick to make the same mistake every tax. So is to make mistakes it had to passionate about it. And I'm sure in the next few years. I'd make a lot of this. But the only way we can improve his learn from our mistakes enough DIGI. Yeah. So I like that what I oftentimes say is in my own businesses. New mistakes are okay. Yeah. Old mistakes. Repeated are not well that's a wrap on another great story to help us create grow and protect our wealth, fellow risk-takers. I'll see you on the upside.

Bank Bangladesh chief investment officer Asia university of Dhaka Bob department of finance analyst US eastern Bank Limited head of research Andrew risk manager treasury department Shula
The Odds Report CFB Week 15 & NFL Week 14 December 6, 2019

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

28:41 min | 1 year ago

The Odds Report CFB Week 15 & NFL Week 14 December 6, 2019

"Did you know you can get more value from your Medicare coverage choose optima Medicare HMO and get medical and prescription drug coverage coverage plus and has benefits dental vision and allowance for over the counter products with plans starting at just steer dollars per month the Medicare annual enrollment period ends on December seventh. So visit US online today. Learn more at OPTIMA health dot com slash Medicare. We got one more guest. One more segment left here for this Friday edition available. Radio that is with Brent. The head risk manager down at the SL sportsbook for this week's version of of the odd support Out there in both the college football and the NFL Betting Markets Conference Championship Games. You'd figure the lines we tight but short money finding value value out there doing the same for week fourteen in the NFL. So without further ado here is districts version of the report with grant from Ds is joined by Brent. The head risk manager down at sports work for this week's version of the odds report Brett. How's it going today? Man Do very well got to not bull season yet. But we're getting Kinda down the stretch where I mean for me. It's a better time a year instead of having you know like Seventy College Football Games on Saturday ten narrow down because generally speaking people are going to bet the same amount of money now. They're just going to better on fewer game. which from a risk manager point of view it just much much easier for do for us to do and of course? NFL's is a great time of year because also you got sort of that jockeying for play off position in the contenders and pretenders are Kinda showing their heads now. So I don't doing well and excited. I don't get often excited about football but this is the one time of year. I kinda do. Yeah we got the ten Conference Championship Games. Aaron of course college basketball slowing down a little bit now with exam weeks the holidays. So you're not a bad time of year for you down there and we have plenty of stuff to talk about here. Obviously with this week's Conference Championship Games Noteworthy these sharp action at least nothing that you've mentioned here so far With this Oregon Utah Stand alone game on Friday night. But what can you tell us about this game since you know it is a standalone on and I'm sure people are going to be invested in it. Yeah I mean honestly there is kind of what I'M GONNA call respectable action on the dog. There is not calming in College. Football that people people worry about key numbers but in this particular case to get a decent bet from a guy who's kind of like almost a list worthy on the dog on Oregon plus the seven so other than that I've got a waiter accountable to favoring Utah. The favorite. My totals completely balanced I'm good on that one thing you look at it with a lot of these. These is games as we can just not a lot of movement and a lot of these numbers have have really you know held pretty tight. I mean there are some that have moved a couple of points and stuff like that but like I mean central Michigan Ohio take for example. It's pretty much hasn't moved and often six and fifty four APP State Lafayette. Same thing hanging total open lake fifty five and a half or fifty six now in the side who like five and a half to six or whatever so he's numbers of really. It's a lot easier. Obviously when you've got fewer games take a little more time to put this stuff up so it was kinda showing another. There's been a lot less movement. Which of course is better for us to look at the Games that do have extremely notable sharp action here and that begins on Saturday and it begins ends with the first game on the Board Game One? Five one zero six in Detroit Mac. Championship Game Central Michigan. Miami of Ohio. What do you got going on for this one front Brent? I got a good a good spot for us in that I've got a sharp and a public split which is something that we Kinda is always good for us. You can kind of hang your number and maybe a little bit higher than you might sharps in public on the same way so you can kind of balance. You're charging Kinda you know work to a you. Know a a tar position that you're that you're looking for without a whole lot of movement sometimes sometimes when that comes in your favor dig it sharp money on the dog. Miami of Ohio. And I've got to say I mean I. It's a really really big wager. Count when you're talking six to one on favoring central Michigan that's like for college football and especially for the you know the lower-profile game that this is such a big way to count one ways is is is quite know worthy so six to one favoring central Michigan Bay count there I'm talking to teams at eight and four hundred seventy five and you're going to have some common opponents and stuff like that. I I think Miami while they lost a ball state where losses in central Michigan. I think Bertie Squeak by ball seat but you don't really you know from a sharp perspective guys only look uncommon opponents and stuff like that central Michigan to like last week. I guess it was their game. I think in the first half. They'd scored like on a touchdown like seven straight possessions. The lead like thirty five seven at the half or whatever before cruising Toledo so you get a high scoring team like central Michigan and a result like that kind of carries over a bit so just just a really really strong inside account that way are at so the next game here. Is The Sun Belt Championship game. This one on Appalachian State's campus in Boone. North Carolina Game One. Oh seven Louisiana. An APP state. It's been pretty one-sided money at least in terms of the line move for this game on the APP stateside nightside. Yeah there was initial tick up from the six to six and a half. You know again i. I had a bye on Lafayette plus seven minutes. One one twenty so there was a half-point by on the dog there by the sharp so they are on Lafayette on other cases. Well my my count is is pretty much even on this one. I do have a slight count. Count fearing APP state but nothing like is news on a major count that way But sharp money like I said on Lafayette plus seven minus one. Twenty Again same situation you've got common opponents and stuff like that and this is one of those games well where you can look at they. They did actually play each other head to head during the season. But you kinda again every every game is different. You throw that one out yeah. It's something it's kind of interesting about this game. Is that some places kind of got caught a little bit on this number. I'm looking at the screen here and I see in some places even open this thing as low as minus three. Let me just take a look. I mean I obviously didn't open not loy. You did OPACIC. So Oh yeah we open at six three. I don't know I don't know who what where when that happened. The lowest I saw was five and a half and we opened at six. All right Mojo move on and we don't have any noticeable sharp action on this game but I do want to ask you about it. Since we're looking on that portion of the board here game one nine one ten as Baylor and Oklahoma the home of big twelve game rematch from the game a few weeks ago when Oklahoma was actually at ten and a half point favorite in Waco's now under ten at a neutral site are you getting your the makings of a sharp versus public. Split here or what I mean. It's funny we talked about this one. You know when they did play previously inches it just I. I didn't get the line. The sharp plate was on Oklahoma. Didn't make sense to me. Based based on where the records were in the home team all that kind of stuff on this number as well as basically basically the open net at at nine and a half I think it was on nine and a half and it's bounced between the got as low as eight or eight and a half and come back up to nine where we are right now so even the market is pretty much ministerial number. You look right now. You can find numbers as high as nine and a half and as low as eight and a half. It seemed Kinda like that numbers count wise right now I have got more count heavier on Baylor so if anything might take down to the eight and a half at nine nine right now but there was a nine and a half out just kind of hanging at nine with the rest of the market but nothing you know nothing sharp of note but it is kind of interesting. I just kind of had the feeling myself of this number would open a little bit lower but it hasn't worked out are going to give them one seventy one eighteen here the SEC championship game. This is the one that everyone's most interested posted in here this week. Even though you've got Utah and Oklahoma vying for what could be that Funnel College Football playoff spot Georgia would get it if they win this game mm-hmm but they are a seven point. dog-eared LSU yeah. I mean Georgia. They've only got the you know the one loss on the what was that was South Carolina when their their field goal. Kicker I I mean can blankenship or whatever his name. He's usually pretty solid and he he missed their. You know both these teams won easily last week and I got sharp money on this one I again. I mean college football. You don't really look at key numbers too much now. Three and seven are kind of key still on the sharp money they come in on Georgia plus the seven house. Were down seven seven right now. Pretty much across the board. I think I've seen some lake seven fifteen as well so it seems market wise mark white kind of training that way elsewhere must have got hit by short money's well on Georgia so seven dogs fifteen is out there. I'm sitting flat right now. My account again is three to one fearing LSU. So that's why. I'm sitting at seven minus one ten each way if I had to. You know even even count on my probably be kind of tilted towards Georgia's well at at seven minus one fifteen base chart money was plus seven ten and again you talk about both these teams. They've beaten quality opponents. Like Georgia did beat Notre Dame Florida Auburn Auburn teams. Like this. They've always got good schedules and play good gains good team. So when you're talking about eleven one team that twelve and thirteen obviously these kind of proven the worst so far. So so I either. Aside more than a touchdown for your ethnic would be a bit much. Unlike some you know some of the other Games you felt like Ohio state for example like we're GonNa talk about you Boise state's almost two touchdowns failed as well but you know in a game like this conference in such they play in. You know they've kind of had that you know the litmus test if you will in terms of both these teams being tested One loss between the two of them so not much. Choose from like I said Georgia plus seven and a half. I count wise this eight three one. LSU So it was kind of just sitting at the seven where around right now just because the money keeps coming on Lsu. I mean there's just no way move off the number seven right now. We have seen a lot of totals movement in several of these Games. But this this one really hasn't moved too much. Yeah no not much at all. I mean my count. Even news is pretty much deb. Get even on this one. So yeah it's it's kind of between nine. Fifty four and fifty five is pretty much. The number's been pretty solid at sitting at fifty four and a half right now. There's I think there's a fifty five out there right now but everyone elsie fifty four and a half for fifty five. When I was at fifty five I had a little bit more money on the under when I was at fifty four? I had a little bit more money on the over. So low and behold fifty four and half working for us on here is again that seems pretty significant. Totals the big ten championship game game. One Nineteen Twenty Wisconsin and Ohio state state. Ohio state big favourite here. This line has come down a little bit. The total movement is very interesting here with a pretty substantial move up in a pretty big adjustment from the first time these two teams played. Yeah this number has moved quite a bit did open I opened. I think it was fifty three and I got a eastern. It's not often in in college football. That will get you talk about a a sharp and public split on a total but these are you know what you might WanNa Call Marquis Games with fewer games and these are the kind of like the best of the best playing here on this number number dig it but up from the fifty three all the way up to fifty seven. I got sharp money at fifty seven when it came right back down fifty six and a half and fifty six. That's kind of where we're hanging all right now. I even when I went to fifty six though I was still getting over money. Public money on the over. My count even fifty six three two one. Favoring the oversaw backed doc to fifty six and a half kind of splitting the you know the difference there between where the sharp money came in were they. Just keep on betting me so I kind of want to avoid taking back up to fifty seven because I could will get better again and wants to sharp. Show your hand you Kinda you try to avoid showing that number again but right now looking at the way things are going and even like I said when I dropped at fifty-six I still have public money on on your so. I get the feeling that publishers gonNA keep betting this one over no matter what we put up. So you know salons. My position doesn't get out of hand apologised hang the fifty six and a half if the market stays that way. There is a fifty six out there as well so I think that's kind of like seems to be the right number but just a strong leader count on the over from the public. 401 account is the the sharp money was under fifty seven about the side for this one. I guess winds come down a little bit anything notable about that. Yeah I think that that kind of respect a little money out there perhaps grabbing something on the dog of whether it was just the numbers you know grab at the sixteen and a half or I don't know my count in houses about three to one favoring Ohio Ohio state so I I think fifteen and a half is probably going to take up to sixteen. We'll see where it goes from there. All right the other game here the ACC championship game. One twenty one. Twenty two new notable sharp action and shop for this one. Does anybody even have interest in this game with the big number of twenty eight yen not much nine. Honestly the only thing in kind of respectable that I've seen in terms of you know a bet that I you know some guy who I'd say he's he's he's borderline. Sharp was on the favorite. There are Clemson minus twenty eight now. There are some twenty eight and a half. So they're on board so I'm there with them but my county. No at twenty eight was was in his twenty S. A key number or anything by count was about three two one favoring Clemson at that number since twenty eight and a half I'm balancing action both ways so I'll probably just hang there as long as the market stays the same one other thing. I want to ask you about college. Shapur here before he transitioned over to the NFL side a ballgame lines are going to come out on Sunday night so sort of walk us through what that process is like for you in terms of you know getting the numbers in terms of balancing some of the early moves because we will see a lot of people jump on these things early trying to grab some prices. But you've got you'll and and in some cases up to three weeks before the Games actually played. Yeah I mean there are our biggest defense really up. I just lowering our limits. And you talk about these these bowls and there's just there's a lot of unknown because you've got guy you can have situations where guys GonNa you know you're going to declare for the Dow so he's not GonNa play the ball game that can happen. I've heard rumors that every now and then College players kind of get rowdy and get out of hand get suspended for these games so you have that stuff that comes into play You know we've had cases cases. Were like five guys on the defense get suspended stuff like that. So it's really you have to be on the defensive and as you mentioned there's these games you know the lines Komo just so early so really just having early lower limits is the best thing you can do you try and balance you know. Put your initial numbers out there. Thinking like one. What is the number that's GonNa Balance Action and to which way of our customers gonNA go without giving too much away to the sharp side of things if you're looking at a sharp exploded and trying to kind of anticipate that you you also have the factor in terms of just kind of profiling games inter how much action you expect? The habit on certain games obviously certain team certain team brand names obser- ball games have a higher higher-profile another. So you're looking at you. Know what kind of exposure looking at certain games and stuff like that but really the biggest defense we have is is kind of an anticipation of where numbers are GonNa go and also having the lower limits a kinda control getting hit when people are out there looking and make numbers grabbed and you do see that a lot. You'll see a you know. Initial number grabs on a certain number or people setting up a number. They think he's just wait to loyalty at pickup. And one of these relieved to look out for in terms of when you're looking at someone who's setting up a number you really a slow gradual tick up in one way in one direction is not going to be a numbers. Grab when you see a number. Go up say dramatically in in say an hour or thirty minutes and then plummet back down in the next hour board or thirty minutes. That's kind of situation. We have a number being set up and kind of you know look for. That's the okay. That was the number. If you didn't get that price. He missed out all right so move over over to the NFL side of things here and we start with the first game on the board for Sunday. Game One thirty one thirty two Baltimore and Buffalo. What are the toughest handicaps of the week in my opinion because this is a very bad spot for buffalo off that physical win over the forty Niner for Baltimore? Excuse me off at physical win against the forty niners and the other hand Dan. Buffalo's played a very weak schedule here. So you've got questions about them. And the validity of their record seems like some people do have a position on this game though. Yeah Yeah you're I mean you you you hit the nail on the head there automated. It is a very tough spot. Both I think both kind of from a handicap and just kind of a perception of from our side of the counters like okay. Baltimore is all the rage course. Buffalo is kind of like the consistently disrespected by you know by the betting public. So you know what's what's the right number. What's a number number? That's that's high nafis like okay. If these teams played on a neutral site where would you go. Okay factor in how people are GONNA bet. What do you think the right number is going to be so You know buffalo can maybe. Fortunately I guess they had the big win. I guess you call it over Dallas Thanksgiving but Baltimore's has been. I mean he's just been so good for this whole season I've got a you know a wage accountant pretty close out. It's not even two two on favoring Baltimore which I you know I. I'm really happy about because they said they'd been just just like the public darting for even since the pre preseason game out although all the Rachel Jackson and stuff like that and what he was going to do in the weeks week week after week just like okay. MVP gets out of hand so We did have a you know a decent number on this one off. Put a Baltimore five and a half to get bet by sharp money at at that It's number did carry on from six to six and a half and got back. Bet Back Down which. I'm kind of happy both who didn't have to go too far. But five and a half is where I got. Sharply there You you talk about the buffalo and their opposition stuff daddy. It is kind of like if you look at who you know. Prior to the Dallas win had beaten Washington. MIAMI DENVER ENVER LOST AT. Cleveland is Kinda like you know I think us as well as public are still trying to figure these guys out. Yeah I think so too and it's crazy to think about that. You you know with thirteen weeks worth of games already in the books you know. It's tough especially when you factor some of these situations spots into the equation some of these teams and we'll talk about commit. I guess we'll go ahead and go to. That game. Came One thirty seven. Thirty eight San Francisco New Orleans. San Francisco is a team. That had its bye week four. They've been playing a lot of games here in a row so although it hasn't deterred sharp money from taking the dog here yeah I mean right. We'll get to that right away with the sharp money is on Champ Cisco Plus Three even money so this one's move annua take a lot. I think it was even like three. And a half minus one fifteen at one point so they kind of a big number if you will in New Orleans looking where it is now all the way down to Pretty much across the board New Orleans now minus two. I think there's a two and a half there as well but you know kind of a you know a steady result there in the market that the money's coming in on San Francisco consistently plus three. Even money's got sharp money on my also took money on the under this game under forty five and a half where that came. We're down to forty four and a half as well and yeah I mean San Fran. They did the tough loss last week but it was. It was a good game. It's not like you Kinda you don't downgrade them at all off that loss and and Orleans I mean you look at who. They've beaten in recent weeks. I mean they'd beaten Tampa Bay Carolina Atlanta the past three weeks. He's is still kind of trying to be them what I think like how. How good are they Breezes been back you know. It's kind of A. I don't know like you said a after all this time. The jury's still out on the on on on some of these teams I'm waiting account wise. My count is about to one on San Francisco so I got the the public and the sharps in the same way. Decide on the total. I've got a count of about two one five minutes over so I got a publican sharp split there in terms of the public going over and the sharks going under the forty five and a half what. What's kind of amazing to me is? Is your the early week. Move through three is is very telling minutes very eye opening in and of itself but this lines continued to kind of tick down a little. But I'm seeing some twos you too flat too with reduced juice out there. Do you feel like there's some sharp segment of the market coming back in New Orleans at some point. I don't and I only say that because I just Kinda I think you know because my mum money came in at three I think once it dropped to two and a half and two do I think it should have come in. You know even if it didn't come in in house right here. I think somewhere in the market. It should have come in now. You're talking like some some books out there that get a lot of heavy sharpish and they're still sitting at two so you know he's not like there's any big injury information that's waiting to be. You know people are waiting for something like that Just the the minus two is hanging out there and it's you know it's a solitude pretty much across the board so I think if someone waiting for a number to grab on ones they would have done it at that point. What what did I do want to ask you about real quickly here? Carolina Atlanta one forty one forty two not a whole lot of moving on this game but Carolina Firing Ron Rivera. I mean do you find that people people try to use that as a betting angle or do they kind of stay away from that game just because of the uncertainty and not really knowing how team response not honestly I think most people just kind of look at the teams on the field and not so much at the coaches. When there's these changes I mean you could make the same case for Atlanta with quantum? The you know there was talk. Kabua his job being on the line before they were off a couple of wins as well. So I I would say Carolina already took action with their coach was Atlanta's coaches still kind of on the fence events. Whether he'll be back next season or not so no. I don't think that factors in much into a game like this but you know it is one of the you know the lower bed games of the week all right so he jumped one forty five one forty six zero we do have some sharp involvement and you know. Look sometimes we get to talk about sexy games. And sometimes we don't and this one falls into the not sexy category of Miami and the jets. Yeah we kind of no surprise. I mean if you go back you know the recent weeks that we've talked about on on this show. It seems like every week Miami seems to come up or the jets come up and this week probably no surprise and other playing each other. We're we're talking about these teams. Miami's Miami's where I got a sharp money on this one seven so this number obvious he was. Just you know just kind of often. Shouldn't have open as high as it did. I think it opened as high as seven and a half old in the market there which Office just to hire a number. It's weird because Miami was was so bad from the get-go and they were getting these astronomical numbers like seventeen and a half I think you'll plus twenty one and stuff like that and the public. Just love betting Miami. Now they've actually shown a little bit of life with Matt Fitzpatrick at the helm and they're still getting a whole lot of support. I gotTA wage accountable to one fearing Miami. So I've sharp money and public money on the dolphins here and it's just like I'm down a five and a half our finances. You know a real substantial move from the seven all the way down a five and a half so it's as telling move. I think we talked previously about the jets. How their their their strength kind of sets up people defensively to attack the weaknesses? They've got a very strong front seven. So you really can't run against them with much success. You talking about a Miami team who no matter who they're playing couldn't run the ball you know versus anyone. I think ballots had like one of the worst yards per carry numbers like in the history of the NFL. And and now he's out so you've got to. I don't know if you WANNA call it. Third String Four. String running backs coming into the fold for Miami. And you've got a quarterback who just loves force in the ball downfield and and he basically a tax defense leaves it up there and you've got the jets who've got a real weekend injured You Know Defensive Backfield so the tendency I've seen for over these. These jet schemes recently has been towards the over and this number as you can tell has gone from forty four away to forty four forty five and a half so this one's getting bet heavily over and you got money on the dog Miami and the thing with Miami. It's like I said I. I think what happens with the jets as you. You kind of your strength force people to attack your weakness. And that's that's the kind of thing that you know Fitzpatrick laws and Lo and behold the dolphins get behind and they just have to sling it like they did last week in the and he'll do that and the one last week outright and they'll probably get inside the seven this this time around to all right. So we need a pallet cleanser. Here we don't have any sharp action to discuss but game one fifty one fifty two huge game here Kansas City and new the England going to get a lot of public involvement. Obviously you've had some recent playoff meetings to look back at as well. What's the story here with game? One fifty one one fifty two. Yeah I mean it's in an afternoon game is not the the evening game on Sunday because it actually Another great game in the evening but this is going to be a massively bet game in the afternoon Right now my waited counters absolutely dead on not a whole lot of movement from the opener of New England minus three and a half to minus three minus. One twenty five where they are right now. the totals. Well not a whole lot of women opened fifty ob- sitting forty nine as well so it's not you know nothing real you know really know where the in terms of of movement movement on my way to count like his almost dead even this number dig it as low as minus three and got support soon as they hit threes and adding juice on the number three so I I could see the number going back up to three and a half but I just you know I I doubt it will probably refrain from it other than the initial move down. You don't have a whole lot of risk once you've gotten a three. He said we when it got down to three minutes. One fifteen support for New England came in right away so we're back up to three miles a quarter well. Is this football game. It's GONNA makeup for an ugly Monday night football game giants and Philadelphia Monday but Seattle and the rams on Sunday night very good game here in the NFC west and a lot of intriguing intriguing line movement here to this game. WE'RE GONNA flip favorite scenario. Yeah it I think the flip favorite tells you everything you really need to know about this game in terms of where the sharps are going on. The Dick grabbed around at home. And it's you know it's really one of those games were the rams have just looked so ugly so often this season and Seattle's Seattle's look fantastic. They look fantastic last week but for weeks and weeks and weeks they've been overpriced. It's Kinda one of those situations where you get the you know the analytics and the and You know the quant guys in numbers guys who looked game and it's just like they're constantly looking for value and finding value going against Seattle. You found that for years against the Patriots the kept on losing and here the you know again being on the rams plus two and a half I got bet by one sharp on my dad took another sharp bet the other way on the money. Line the rams as well plus one fifteen so have too sharp on the rams here a home Moi initially Home Dog I was GonNa say and numbers now either the rams at a pick or maybe like pick one MM fifteen minute ones out there as well. I'm out. She hit going both ways. Using the rams moneyline minus one fifteen using the spread of minus one dog fifteen as well kind of hanging there so The move down from two and a half not you know not a huge risk because it was an out for your hand that but I've got a non surprisingly at all. I've got a sharp public split here with the public on Seattle Count three to one right now and again. They just they just seem to be overvalued is interesting because two weeks ago I guess it was where the Rams Played Baltimore and they just absolutely got crushed by Baltimore. And there's a Lotta narratives coming out. How Arizona was just going to do the same not quite do the same thing to the rounds but how you know kind of it was going to have a great day against the rams defense and stuff like that because of what Lamar Jackson did and of course they did absolutely nothing? Yeah absolutely absolutely nothing is a good way of putting it. They gained almost four hundred yards. I think in that one so other rams look very good last week. We'll see how they wind up looking here this week against Seattle breadth breadth head risk manager down at sportsbook. Always a pleasure to chat with you man. Thank you so much for joining me. And we'll talk to you next week. All right we can. Adam combining home and auto state farm gets you a whole lot covered less but this state farm radio ad gets you this jam covered for free. AW AW premiums. Two by combining policies. Oh Tom and from our coverage is it stays farm dot com live from state farm. We have Sharon lavishly. It manager attempting to forty seven hundred acts of good. Today's Today's good deed. She will attempt to scored a little old lady across the row had tailed elbows into locked steadier. How across the Sharon Pravo allstate found employees challenging themselves to get on the board with one hundred acts of good see? That story is a neighborhood of good dot com.

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The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook  CFB Week 10 & NFL Week 9 November 1, 2019

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

29:47 min | 1 year ago

The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook CFB Week 10 & NFL Week 9 November 1, 2019

"Hi Joanne how can get center academy brands diaw records Polo Cadila seen good AAs on Zinta Tuna Intelligent Mr details and Fiona I o pies talk radio that is with the head risk manager down at sports book for this week's version in some of them good numbers grabs a lot of different spinning plates for week ten I'm joined by breadth the head risk manager down Diaz sportsbook for this week's version of the odds coming to play at the all these games going on as you like to to rid me about college the biggest initial moves I've seen in futures markets and stuff like that based on the way they came out stitches never the same day after day and I love that about it now something I'm kind of curious earning here but what I'm kind of curious about is when you've got college basketball obviously you have NBA on but you know football games once a week plenty of time to manage risks stuff like that how Liam into question of allocating resources and allocating your time if you're going to get you the game you're probably talking to you know ten times or more so it's a question of allocating resources fell game we're not just talking like I'm side total of my life you're talking the quarters that have that the house they come across the board and you can filter them by bet size and have different colors associated to basketball for a day I can set my filter ups I only see college basketball so it's you know it's good for on when things kind of died down across other sports then it picks up and of course the the madness that comes with self gravitating away from football because we know these teams already I mean to a you don't have a lot of overnight lines that have been out for the week you get stuff like night after GonNa see it's easier but it is more manageable as let's say that the other thing we had unless action say a lower level college basketball game and added nor extra game percentages in mind based on the sport because get as you mentioned college football going to have a lot more volume aliens it weekly how do you sort of set that up know what I'd do more so more than anything with college basketball again will have higher profile games where we might hold numbers more because I wanna hold your whole percentage because you don't know what the outcome of the game is going to be so it's more ones but of course you've got games like on a typical Sunday like a allied I guess I got one more question I just thought here just from future standpoint in college basketball sharp action involved on on caller football futures that usually comes at you know early before using wow this team looks really good but of course at that point if you're doing your job properly the numbers are adjusted accordingly tall here and let's start with three twenty three twenty four here Michigan the money going one way and that is all on Michigan -rupt at twenty one and a half I minus eighteen I think this number opened his lowest sixteen and a half I didn't open quite took a team Lake Michigan they had the big win last week against Notre Dame Maryland uh nothing but sharp money and public money my weight account and very one side as well five yeah I mean I I've kind of stopped the flow of money at twenty one and a half but you gotta go fishing in terms of where you're going to find some buyback and get to we action I I here I get money back on Maryland Yeah you've someone waiting for the number to go higher I know I don't know but twenty Oy and central Michigan and Samak just feels remarkably inconsistent this year so you don't get to see a whole lot of touched on before that we were sitting here on a you know I I don't watch any of them and I mean the way scheduled it just like from morning tonight this one here in Northern Illinois did get sharp back plus one and a half this line is public out but still account two to one the other way I know central Michigan Nassim QB questions as well is one plus four and a half is the sharps came in I minus one and a half right now in northern Illinois style run that type of triple option generally running clock not a lot of possession stuff like that as you know if they're blowing a one of the teams or covering by by a lot they kind of might want to ease up for sure on this line has gone from air force minus thirteen and a half army so sharp money there I'm I'm Kinda surprised with this one or maybe not that I I guess public is just strong public count on army which I'm quite happy to have countable five APSO definite Public sharp split with sharp on Air Force You know I I I'm Kinda comfortable based on the records what I've seen of air force the you know the limited stuff that have seen limited possessions I see the totals forty five or so out there what does the count look like am worth writing home about art so we moved to game three sixty seven three sixty eight here place such a tough tough schedule Georgia's and Alabama's and Florida's they have to go up against did you fear it at home sharp money came in on them at minus ten a month to twelve and a half my accounts pretty much debt dead even when you look you know like say on the surface when you look at records you ninth ranked schedule according to this massive step up in class for them and how many UAB this year wow yeah there there you go that might be reading into some sharp action based on strength of schedule discrepancies one more game on the college side here kind of neutral but it is it is in the State of Florida Leeson is interesting when you look at these games my favorite so it was like Georgia's two points worse than the rankings but fair by might while the sharps fifteen up there so big move the lowest number I think open on this one waiter county Florida so I got a public count five to one fearing Florida sharp money on Georgia last week by mid one by around ten or eleven on my that and George Underside of course losses the records are are almost identical in the ratings are almost identical as well not even like I said I I kind of didn't expect to move off six and I am kind of digging in that way but even when I was at lower numbers I even like four and a half I still had account fearing just because they have so many more Beth's the other way on Florida's so it's it's a good spot for me the fact that some move over to the NFL side of things here we got a handful of games talk about including something these games we just kind of take whatever gets sharp action and beginning with the jets and Miami is maybe a little I'm for sure you know the over here I'm kind of you might be surprised I think they've been so far this year jets are minus three point favorite on the road that line drop moving the total going two and a half points on an NFL game you know talk about pseudo sharp numbers of forty guests the jets feeling too and they they do have some talented some key positions that just kind of put it all together three minutes one twenty even my even my counts lately favors the jets all Detroit and Oakland you these teams look at their bodies at work it but you're right at least in terms of the Coun- I mean my count is is dead over which is a strong strong sharpen public but on this one the public is all over this one going I I don't know that this game was kind of set up to a number but it kind of has that feeling on very quick I do see this number going getting down to fifty for sure I think it's keep dropping I wanting to look at it and again you can go and get into their services out that that show you time stance of of a setup when a number moves within say like a half an hour when it moves like a point to point and a half two points on a they hold onto me yeah you may say like thirty seven and forty one back in the day more so but and a half fifty two you're talking seven touchdowns in a field goal kind of things that if you look into the you know the time stamp of how quick this number move down it was really really quick get things like the Oakland they're a decent team I think the better than people think I'm pseudo one and a half cent and twos out there I'm sitting at to and yet my calendar is about two to one the other way all right through jumped out one spot on the board here four with James Winston betters are not deterred though they they kind of like this one a little bit as you see this number has dropped down not dramatically but from the the six and a half down five and a half I five right now and it seems to be just a consensus towards Tampa Bay and Yeah I mean you're right to mention the turnovers is is really really solid defensively I think Winston does a good job of pushing the ball more value to me they they kind of barely squeak by Atlanta last week I mean they had the bigger leading I think Tampa Bay's just kind of fits the profile that kind of team so high favoring the seahawks atom arts jumped game four sixty nine four seventy here look into like okay someone's got a better feel for whether situation than perhaps we do on this on team now it turns out the FLACCO might be gone for a few weeks I think they're talking now they might be like ran analysis the quarterback who's GonNa be out there for Denver Cleveland been a very offer them but that hasn't stopped the pub from backing them as well I got Brown's money to the tune of five to the market is between three minus a quarter three minus twenty or three and a half dog fifteen even so we hit hit number three my waiter comparable three to one framing the browns so I think it's going to continue before we get to Sunday night football we've got some very interesting sharp action to talk about I wanNA earlier in the week and it's that time of year we're GONNA start having coordinators fired coaches no I didn't you kind of just let the let the people decide that and you know looking like this and the and the fire night that really is going to have a big impact on the number at difference you look at like Washington it really hasn't made a difference to Washington in terms of how we rate the Qu- question of the coach knob making use of it or is it just the talents not there I think in a case going to be incredible for this one New England and Baltimore and we've got a lot to unpack Asian the number did get five on New England and that's where sharp money came probably is going to pick back up to three minus fifteen maybe three twenty I I'm not unfavoured New England and I have accountable to one favoring the over as well so I have public money on a forty five and a half so it had moved one full point looking right now the dom best green across the board of forty so I think this number was just kind of a bit too high to start with maybe we anticipated public money coming I am very curious to see what happens come Sunday night because of course you're GONNA get a lot more I do believe that I'd be surprised. Put it this way to see New England minus three and a half it's such a fascinating game it's such a really interesting and and you know what's kind of a bummer is that that one o'clock injury situation there and that one at least we don't have the same thing here in New England in Baltimore so I am no an ad from dad all right save money on I'm talking to you with the hair yeah where did you get this good stuff salable state to situations it's cutting into your exercise time it stabbing you. I it's fast acting relief with active OTC ingredients plus the added benefits of.

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The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook  Week 1 CFB August 30, 2019

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

33:27 min | 1 year ago

The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook Week 1 CFB August 30, 2019

"Twenty bucks you swear you were going to read a half dozen sweaters courtesy of grandma. There are countless things you cherish on the inside of your home. That's why there's james hardie fiber cement siding on the outside discover the unrivaled protection of fiber cement siding for your new home at james hardie dot com. I'm joined by brent the head risk manager down at d._s. Sportsbook in what i presume as i talked about last week is probably very sunny costa rica bread. How's it going today meant yeah. It's it's it's not bad. I mean we talked on before. Even during quote unquote rainy the season green season here you still have sun most times in the day which is the case here and the afternoon clouds over them. We get some rain sometimes torrential rain but you can almost musty insurance godman greet apples wake up the next day. It's gonna be sunny again so look forward to that every day and a nice sunday morning. Well i gotta say i just got back from vegas a couple of days ago. It was a very hot and dry one hundred and ten degrees out there. I mentioned the humidity is the biggest issue in costa rica. Yeah i mean you know you talk about vegas. I i just loved that. Place and people always always say oh you took vacation. We're gonna go to vegas and people like you work in the gambling industry and you take you know and you're leaving the hot sunny anyplace you take a vacation you go to a hot place with his gambling. I guess i guess i'm a type yeah. I guess that's called a degenerate. That's what we call them here industry. So are your craps blackjack guy what are you. I mean you know i know the i have a negative e._v. Negative expected did value at when i play a game like roulette. The numbers are just obviously the i think he's one of the highest games in terms of the the casino hold percent against me but i dislike it and you know it's funny because i shouldn't play based on the math and stuff like that but the only one the one thing i do that. Many people don't do is when i get up. I walk away. I'm ahead. I walk away and i do that. Consistently it happened last time. I was there. Actually i was there this year as well. I sat down. I played came up played. Okay okay. I'm going to play the second number kind of a number of mine the second number it came up as well so i had to spins the wheel basically more than double my money obviously and walked away and i was like damn house. I was planning on playing for a while while you know what maybe you're just if you just have a fetish for numbers maybe that's why you gravitates roulette. I don't know there's gotta be some kind of name for <hes> a fetish for numbers. I don't know maybe one of our listeners recycled road yeah right all right. Let's let's not so you and we're talking before. I started recording here that you know watching the board light up. I mean it excites me every day. It doesn't matter if it's week one. If it's week eight week fifteen i don't care it's just exciting citing the see the market moving seeing those numbers going up going down all that type of thing you just fall right back into rhythm with the start of a new season yeah pretty much much. I mean it. You know the thing is we. We obviously have our handful sharp betters in house but they're obviously there's a lot of guys who who are out there in the market who don't bet specifically typically here so like you'll see movement on some gains. You'd think wow you know who bet that word of bet that and you kind of like oh. I wonder who that was and you know. Sometimes you can get a feel based from what book moves. I you know how sharp the guy was and you can. Also you know kind of watch things and see how quickly a number gets bet back or if it runs away on one side because you get that a lot of a lot of push and pull in a lot of games and there's there's always a number where you know if you go low enough on one side sharp guys going to bet and there's always a number on the other side. If you go high alpha sharp guys going to bet it. I mean you know we talked about this before. If you ask a sharp guy and say hey you know who do you like this game. He'll say well. You know what's the price. What's the number then. I'll tell you who i like. If if i got laid two and a half well i like a if i'm taking plus six and a half while team b all right so what's again for or listeners here as we go throughout these segments with brand over the course of the college football and the n._f._l. Season so we typically do this all the way up until the super bowl so we get a chance to talk about props and all that type of stuff. You've sort your odds screen by rotation number if you're following along because that's how we're going to be going through these games and this is that we talked about with some sharp action last week but you mentioned that push and pull and i think this is really interesting for that game one forty nine one fifty wisconsin south florida on friday night again. We mentioned this this game last week with some sharp action on the badgers yeah the sharp money i got initially on wisconsin wasn't minus ten. I think the lowest opening number out there at all was nine and the half and that one i believe when we talked about it last week that number gotten up to thirteen and a half and we actually you would ask me about you know if you've got money one way on my bed count. It is almost about to us about two to one fair wisconsin as well. I mean you know you ask. The question is weiss at at their unit half. If everyone's thirteen and a half when i go to fourteen and see if you know kind of fishing in for some money back and we talked about how was earning an and i mentioned that you kinda wanna sit back and see how the market adjusted mean is someone out there waiting for a fourteen to pop in and grab abbett or the waiting for a limited higher than the garage the other side or just kind of found its way in his thirteen and a half was right number. You cannot hope to balance that and almost right off the minus ten. Hope a game like that doesn't land this one here. We're talking about so that's all the way down at ten and a half as well on this one so this one went from an opener here at ten bet by sharp money up to thirteen and a half and now back to ten and a half now. I didn't take a sharp bet here on the other side unsolved four but obviously somewhere in the market. You know the did happen. You've got every every book in the world pretty much out there at ten and a half now so obviously for you as a risk manager i mean this is really where your part. The job comes in. You get sharply wisconsin so your books are imbalanced. Somebody else got sharp money on south florida thirteen or thirteen and a half. You've got to go with the market so that you're not exposed for. Were you know that shirt better to find another thirteen but at the same time it limits your ability to get south florida money back. So how do you handle that situation -tuation where you've got to go with the market but you're still imbalanced. Yeah you wanna take a stand sometimes and again opening week is always kind of fortunate that you know when you get bet early enough you've got lower limits of your risk in terms of a dollar value may not be as high your risk in terms of line movement is probably higher than it will be later on the season just because as the season goes on you know ideally our numbers get sharper as we move along so there is that kind of that you throw into it and again like like i said you ask them you just kind of an experience variance thing as well you asked me about why not being at you know at fourteen wisconsin and get that money back and that's the whole reason why like in a situation like this is really a good example oakland glad you mentioned that just because you can kind of go with the market and see when it's gonna come back and if the market starts going down like when everyone was eleven and a half on wisconsin i had got got bet wisconsin that at ten and twelve if i want to hang a half point higher even a whole point higher ed numbers like eleven and twelve. Maybe not a big deal. I can at least be more attracted. Someone who wants to grab back that south florida seeing if air will mark levin and i'm giving twelve. Someone's going to say okay if i'm gonna if you're gonna give me twelve instead of eleven i may as well take it so it's kinda just us he's kind of get a feel for things and this situation out to you worked out perfectly not the money did come back the other way and our risk really only risk is a landing on kenan paying one side instead of you know the money canceling out on both sides so this one worked out for us. Obviously it doesn't work out all the time. Sometimes you you hold onto a number and you know maybe the whole market did move to fourteen and fourteen half and you kinda think wow i wish i could grab back the other way a. plus fourteen but it just it just kind of experiencing an fuel for games. Now one game i do wanna talk about that has some sharp action in the marketplace. It hasn't necessarily come in there with you at g._s._i. <unk> game one fifty three one fifty four umass in rutgers and and this is one of those conversations that i've had before that shirt betters find value in their numbers and they don't really care which team it is the idea of rutger's is being brought up into a sixteen point favorite against anybody is kind of astonishing but that is the case here in iligan rates some of the talking points we had last week yeah i mean rutgers kersley again rutgers in new mass. It's not one of those marquis games and it's not like you know a whole lot of public. Monies probably going to be bet on that game less than sitting down watching it so that's the number that it looks like was driven up by sharp money and going from ten looks like the lowest opening number was obviously <hes>. Fortunately i didn't get on on that price but we're all the way up to sixteen in like if you're talking about an opening number going that high. It's really is quite a substantial move the only thing like as you're on my side of the counter you you hope that kind of you take will point jumps to that point going from ten to eleven and twelve and to find your kind of your number words going to settle as quickly as possible and you also do that with lower limits and hopefully you don't get for max bets on on numbers town like if you're taking a max bed at minus tenure up sixteen and there are some guys hitting all the way up there then you're really in a bad spot. If if you take a low low limits at ten you move right away to to eleven and you kind of find like your say your thirteen sixteen range quickly. You're much better spot so it's just a you know it just kind of a a feeling process in terms of where a numbers going to settle and trying to limit your risk in terms of taking smaller bets to get to that point now. Let's illustrate that from our carside. We've been talking about it from your side of the counter by our side. I mean you know us. The listeners here and myself game one fifty seven one fifty eight perdue nevada. This number did touch eleven and a half. I missed it with traveling back home and all that yesterday were recording on thursday night so maybe it's back to eleven and a half now. I don't know but that's one. We're a number may have popped up and somebody out there right now. It's me is sitting there going. I wanna wait for an eleven and a half. I may not get one so is there a way that you can kind of as a better see into the market and kind of figure out if you're going to get that desired number or not. It is difficult for sure because you have to know what's driving certain prices. Now you know the sharp guy saone purdue who who laid minus seven might not be you know the sharp guy who laid purdue minus his minus ten or whatever it might be the public who got on that side is all that you know. That's what drove it up. We talked about before we're not only moving on a sharp money. We're moving on on bets. We take take you know regardless of who they are from a case like that like just hypothetically speaking. Let's say short money came in on perdue minus seven and the public kind of tailed. Ah you know all the way up from nine and a half to ten. You're talking about a situation now where your bed count is probably four to one one side. You took sharp money on you know on purdue on the favorite advert and you've got public money the same side so it's like how far that is that number going to go when you see if it popped like eleven and a half we this outta counter. We kind of have to find the point like i say we're number's going to settle. What's it gonna take for me to get money back the other way and if you know a number like ten and eleven half popped up on purdue came back the other way then then you kind of found okay that's that's it's weird is the thursday game is a good example as well. We're talking cincinnati and u._c._l._a. Game we had sharp money on u._c._l._a. Early at plus three and a half the number dropped all the way down to got cincinnati money and then kind of backed backed up to where we are two and a half right now if someone's sitting there saying you know while you know. I wish he'd get u._c._l._a. Soleil plus at least three is that gonna come. You really have to watch the markets and see where you know where it's going because generally speaking the sharp guys are gonna grab the key he numbers as well on the purdue examples talking about eleven and a half and again eleven half. Obviously he's not a key number but every half point is where something yeah that's very true and and so far listeners out there you wanna look for that resistance point you know we're kind of the book gets to a number search to get that nibble back. That's the number that's probably. He's not coming back for you. I mean maybe this one does go to eleven and a half. It'll probably take some decent investment to get there but can you look for that. Resistance point in the marketplace wants once one of these wants a couple of these sports books. Get it. That's when you know is a better you better grab that number and hope that you can get in there or realize that you know maybe you do have to take a plus eleven here instead of an eleven and a half and again not that eleven is a number of significance really as we just talked about but especially when you're dealing with two and a half three three and a half six six six and a half seven seven and a half that's where you really wanna pay close attention because those resistance points come a lot easier on those numbers yeah and you talk about how eleven and a half and eleven it's probably not a big deal and you are right. I mean the difference between ten and a half and eleven eleven and a half releasing them watch but if you think think about it in terms and again. I'm just kind of expressing this in a different way to think about things if you think about that a standard half point is worth ten cents and you're betting say one hundred dollar or bed. That's ten dollars for the first half and it's ten dollars for the second half so you know if someone was gonna if you found twenty dollars on the floor. Would you pick it up and put in your pocket. Probably why wouldn't you kind of thing slows. No one was looking at that so that's that's what i say like the difference between ten and a half and eleven and a half. You're grabbing. He was thinking about it that way. It charts making a little bit more sense all right so as we move ahead to saturday here. We had some ohio state sharp action last week. They're still twenty seven and a half out there in the market had some nebraska activity activity on the over for their game against south alabama game 163 one sixty four anything else on those two games have gotten a little bit more lopsided on the sharper sides <unk> oneal status kind of settled there at twenty seven and a half last week when we did this call the nebraska total had been sixty five and has gone up to sixty six and a half now. I've got more money on the over not since that time i haven't taken another sharp bet <hes> that only one the only one came at over sixty four south alabama nebraska game but the public all because gone the same way so my waiter counts almost three to one on that total which bring me to sixty six and a half. We're on right now. I'm pretty much everyone in the market. Is there as well now. Here's something just just caught my eye here game. One sixty seven one sixty eight akron in illinois. There was a prominent site out there. I can't remember who it is. I'm not just doing that because i don't want to direct traffic to one of our competitors. I can't remember where it came out but there was a very big bet on illinois out in las vegas. Is that something that you follow. Do you sort of keep an eye on on what happens with the brick and mortars or you just mostly focused on the market and what your competitors are doing it pretty much mostly focused on on what our competitors letters are mostly on the offshore market. I would say there's you know. The west gate is probably the most. I guess reputable casino. If you wanna see out there in terms of the vegas guys who were you know probably sharper take higher higher limit bets and stuff for data. They're probably one of the more aggressive ones out there there other than the you know the big chains. If you will of of casinos xenos out in vegas i would say that's probably the one that you would pay attention to arts remove game one eighty one eighty two we get to talk about some new sharp action the marketplace south carolina north carolina neutral site game in charlotte and this is a this is the substantial line in this game yeah it is i mean i i got bet here on south carolina minus nine and a half. That's right took sharp money so sharp money on on south carolina minus nine and a half. We're up to eleven and a half right now. I do see like this. One did open it as low as seven and a half hours and again. You know you throw these numbers out there again. The the idea is that you're going to get as much money on both teams. Are you want as much bet on south carolina as you do on north carolina so seven half seem like the right number when this one was opened at whatever sportsbook open that low and again any it's not necessarily picking the winner and saying okay. I think south carolina is going to win this game by seven or eight points. That's not what you're doing. You're saying you know how how much attention from the beginning to get on both sides and you just looking for number. That's going to kind of split that obviously seven and a half way low my sharp in store. I got nine and a half so that wasn't that wasn't high enough and eleven is where everyone is right now. I'm fortunate in that. I you know north carolina is more of a. I guess you want to say like a brandname. School has done by their you know their unheard of school one. That doesn't get much attention so i do have my counties fairly close my money because the sharp at i took you know is one side of south carolina other than the nine and a half. I really haven't got anything short. Bet bet back the other way but just continued to come back and forth on this on both sides and again. I'm kind of fortunate that case in that only exposure is just kind of like part of the for initial sharp bet. I've got to actions then arts here game. One eighty seven one eight in the a._c._c. virginia tech and boston college interestingly enough here. There is some sharp money on the side. It's the total that you guys got got. Some sharp money on the side has also been climbing here yeah and again you know i didn't take you know obviously you talk about how you know how you manage things and where you go with the market well everyone everyone. Everyone here on tech has basically four and a half or someplace. There are holding a four with jews not wanting to move off that number. It's an interesting game to look at just because because this number did. I think that the lowest number out in the market was a two and a half on virginia now you see books sitting at four right now and putting four minus one fifteen or whatever is those are the guys who probably opened that two and a half. Maybe bet heavy at two and a half and you really want. Don't want to go off for if if if you don't have to if someone opened later and opened up say three or three and a half you might be more inclined to go to four and a half to get money back the other way so that your only risk is really a game landing four so you know where you open is really really key in terms of how you manage the aside you know myself. I did not get bet on on tech at it. You know money is three three and a half and get sharp money on that one at all. I dig it up on the over. Though <hes> that came at over fifty seven fifty eight is were fifty eight and a half is where i am right now. I think there's some fifty eight out there still this one opened his lowest fifty six and a half. I got bit by sharp money over fifty seven now. Maybe some interesting correlation here with the side in total is that you pay attention to when you see one side going coming up and also one part of the total going up. I mean does that sort of catch your eye a little bit more. Sometimes i mean it depends pretty much on the on the spread the end the total you know where they're going and we got you know a big favourite. Who's getting up in the numbers going up say nebraska alabama for example that line open. I opened the net thirty three and a half. I think it was a three six right now. So the money's going up on nebraska the totals open at sixty three and a half. We're up to sixty six and a half right now. Also you've got kind of a spread anatoly same way. There's more of a correlation between you kind of get the wrong impression if you will at the the sharp money on your is the right money because the you know the big favourite side it's going up while all right one more game to touch on here with sharp action on the college side georgia and vanderbilt game tool one two oh two surp- bags. It's probably not going to surprise anybody regarding this game. Yeah i guess not a more city. You know sitting at twenty two which again it's kind of like not our real relevant not a significant number but i did take sharp money here on georgia. I've got a wager count also favorite george of about two to once again not not a crazy countless inside a tude woolens not bad for me. We'll see like when big market teams get get runaway. You'll see counts up to four one five two one five gallons a real substantial cow but you just kind of a typical cal with a two one one way so i do how public money going with georgia which probably is no surprise twenty and a half is rag up besting at twenty any to right now and again. This is one of those things where you just kind of. Sit there and see what the market does again twenty two if i want to twenty two and a half you know what i what i really have any exposure. You know you probably nodded when you when you hit the twenty three. Even you're really not at risk of going up that high when you when you know considering the fact that i opened twenty and a half now if this number that openly say seventeen and a half you'd be more inclined to hold so. I wouldn't be surprised if this number went up all right one more college game. I want to talk about here no sharp action to discuss but this is something that can happen here in late august in september and october boise state and florida state. We have a time change. We have a venue change. Wealth of this game reposted as game to ninety nine in three hundred other rotation order so sort of walk us through that process of you know when it's action when it's not what the house rules are and also some of these games during the non conference may wind up with a running clock or manned up suspended because of weather so how does that factor in yeah. I mean the venue obviously he's this has to be playing at the same venue on. We've seen that several times last year. I believe as well as it happened numerous times where the venue changed due to hurricane gain seasonal or whatever it was and also there were times when games got moved from from the you know the day as well so it's gotta be played on the same day and at the same time and you talk about <hes> sorry the same the same place and the same day talk about the the duration of games again we we have actually in preseason. We had a shortened game. The rule is fifty five minutes of play for the you know the game to have action <hes> second house. Obviously that applies as well. You've got to play the full second half fifty five minutes. There's a place for the game. In case that your first half action would still have action but just the the game of the second half would be impacted if it didn't go the full fifty five minutes now what about the games get canceled from a season win total standpoint. How does that work yeah. I mean it really sucks when that happens. You figure you know most teams. You know you try and make those up but yeah yeah they all teams have to play their regular allotment of scheduled games so i kinda just like a basic rule and i guess it kind of sucks sometimes times for a you know a a guy who bet say over six and a half and a teams already got seven wins but they don't play the full complement but i mean it puts us in a bad position as well bob because you can't just create the older you've got the under as well and it's not fair to the guy who got the all the under all right so let's transition over the n._f._l. Side here and we don't have any new sharp action discuss discuss for week one. I'm sure we'll have plenty next week segment but the big story in the n._f._l. This week obviously andrew lock the impact of him what his impact is to the betting line. So how did you guys handle that situation at g._s._i. Yeah it's a real tough spot because you know when you when you look at a situation like this and it was i mean it was really i mean it was really quite a surprise. I mean there's not many big events like that. I mean you talk about you. Know things that can affect a regular season wins or or you know the odds to win the championship or whatever there's not a whole lot of things that are quite as big as this <hes> you know. Maybe someone like lebron changing teams. You could throw there would be you know a big one. I'm actually this n._b._a. Season the off-season all kind of pairings of superstars that went on those those were the affected the market. This is a case where a guy just decide to hang them up and it's not just it affects many other markets while you're talking about you know the the games that are used up in advance. You're talking about the odds to win the division and the conference the super bowl on a case like lock. You're talking about his. You know who's gonna be the the leading passer yards for the season so you want to adjust those <hes> <hes> the m._v._p. Of the league as wally so you have to adjust those a little bit <hes> and it's really you know you kinda have to just throw numbers out there and see where they're settled. I i mean the colts just for example in the super bowl. They were around twelve to one. I believe it was they were team to the public. You know quite liked and we're betting being on both for the division and the super bowl so they went from twelve to one to some roth thirty one. I think we got as high as sixty one and came back down to where we are right now around on forty two one so it's one of the things you just kind of have to adjust tweak and just kind of find the number that it's going to settle down at now. Also i mean you kind of have to factor into the equation as well that jacoby percent has been a full time starter before he's been getting the first team ref so you know in terms of saying adjustment to the game spread for week one does reset having experience having you're the preseason wraps matter or you just sort of look at a number for andrew luck and say well well. He's worth this much so that's what we're gonna. Take off yeah. That's the thing you obviously have to. I mean go back to like the baseball thing with the wins over replacement that they use as a measure asia quite a bit in a case like this with perset yeah. He's a guy in the thing with with just not like he's. He hasn't played games four and he's pleading the same system as well <hes> <hes> when you're talking about the division here with the colts. It's really interesting because it's not like you know. There's really strong strong teams within that division. I mean you go years in years back and these these teams were kind of like between the six wind. Seven wins eight wins nine wins. There wasn't a whole lot to choose between them and you know the texans. I mean you know previously one teams. I would kind of fade the most and you talk about lock well on what's going on the cloudy as well. I mean what's what's his value to the team the question if they if they trade cloudy away i think last we heard today was think philadelphian seattle were in the mix. Miami was in the mix a few days ago as well so i mean how does that affect houston. Soak yeah lucks gone but you gonna compare luck versus clowning. Let's say they do make a trade. They do deal cloudy and they get draft picks instead of a an immediate impact person. All you know okay. The texans are now a little bit weaker on as well jaguars for example. They got a new offensive coordinator. <hes> new quarterback their offense assistant is is all new terms of depth algirdas jacksonville. I mean if they lose somebody. Saw will can see their defense is probably one of the most overvalued in the n._f._l. Got a offensive coordinator. Who's who's you know. We're gonna find out their head coaching. Isn't that great you know. Maybe they're not as strong as well. I mean you so you got the texans who are probably gonna lose cloudy and we're looking thing at one of those teams. I e sharp guys. Were probably gonna fade this season. The jaguars got a whole lot of changes going on the titans just seem to be overvalued and just not that great of a teen gene and the colts wa. I mean they got one of the probably the best offensive line in the division. If not the conference <hes> the got you know they got depth you. You know i don't know i. I just don't think that the colts are really that bad of a team even even without lock. I that's my opinion at least well so so. I guess that would be my question. Here is when you get a scenario like this and obviously it's very rare. I mean usually it's going to be a wide receiver tears a._c._l. Or running back tears a._c._l. Something like that when you get a situation like this. What is that process like. I mean you guys call it an emergency staff meeting and you're trying to see what everybody thinks about it. You know do you take the lead eight. Is the head risk manager. How does that dynamic play out yeah. It's it's me initially in. The first thing you hope for is that you're you're in the office. When something like this happens i mean and if you're were you there yeah i was yeah yeah so that was kind of fortunate but it's a matter of just kind of have to sit back and wait. I take take a deep breath and say okay. What are we what we think. The right number is is look at that. We know what's going on in the marketplace as well and just lower the limits and just kind of gradually work your way until something just basically settles on. I talked about then win. The super bowl they went they basically went from twelve to fifty back to forty where we are right now and just the number <unk> has to settle in the in the market is who determines that you take a look at the you know this happening in another division like i said i think this division that the colts are in is is one where those other teams just don't make a whole lot of convincing arguments at that much better than the colts even without luck. Maybe you know maybe i'm wrong. We'll find out but you take take a look at a division like say the n._f._c. east dallas philadelphia washington new york. I think most people would agree that washington and new york into the giants. Just don't have a chance now so you're talking about a two horse race whereas in the colts division right now. I think it's still a four horse race. Now i the last thing i'll ask you because this kind of trees me you know when you think back to the old days you know sometimes betters would get quote unquote inside information. They'd find things out before other people would other times. The sports books find things out before other people would. Did you have any inkling about this. Lock thing before it happened. Did you find out at the same time. All of us did with that adam adam schefter tweet yeah. Everyone pretty much found. I think at the same time you'll all the only one who knew about it was the colts himself because apparently they had been working on this deal about a week before the settlement that came with it was like a you know. The colts had at least a week beforehand. Were they knew about it but you know the rest of us were kind of. I guess you wanna say blindsided by it all as well well. I mean at least somebody like schefter. You know it's probably legit. I mean obviously there's parody accounts and stuff like that out there but you know with it being schefter at something where <hes> <hes> you do have to react pretty quickly and like you said fortunately you're in the office. I mean if you're not in the office. Is it like a doctor on call or you just speeding down the office or what yeah no honestly if you know what happened initially is night. People would just take the whole thing off the board and kind of just waiting till morning. Perhaps the wake me up or whatever it was the case like that but yeah. It's you know you have to kind of play defense. I don't wanna aggressive in terms of hanging number. That's not valid anymore all right last thing here on the n._f._l. Then you know these lines have also been up for a long time much like college football. When do you anticipate seeing some movement for the week one n._f._l. Market yeah. I don't think we're gonna see that probably until thursday wednesday of next week or whatever i just if you look at these numbers and again. There's just hasn't been a whole lot of movement. I mean you know atlanta atlanta. Minnesota i number on the board open at four and a half minnesota's sitting at four right now they opened forty seven and a half years still forty seven and a half pop down to washington philadelphia that open eight sitting at eight and a half right now tools move to half a point just not a whole lot of movement at all. I mean one of the you know the biggest moving games if you will would be the detroit game that we talked about sharper trauma was on detroit minus one. That's up to two and a half right now. You know we talked about last week. Actually with cisco go total of sharp money came in on that over forty nine last week we talked about and it was only the toll had gone to forty nine and a half this week. You know it's kind of fifty so you know right now. We're sitting at fifty on that one so it's kinda like it just a gradual gradual move on that one baltimore is one of those teams that has moved morsel. They did open. I think it was three and a half that numbers pretty much five everywhere. That's one of those games where i just wanna. Get a sneaky suspicion that sharp money might be coming back on miami. You know we talked about before how that it's kind of like almost going fishing sometimes years waiting for number two pop up. I think if someone popped up six miami you'd see that grab right away <hes> <hes> my count right now on baltimore even though i don't have a ton of early action my accountable three almost four to one on baltimore now so you kind of get the feeling that it's just a you know a public albuque- side driving that and miami of public you know they certainly seem like a team that we've faded this point brent head risk manager down at sportsbook in costa rica lots of great stuff talking about here today even though we didn't have a lot of sharp action to report i'm sure we'll have a lot more next week with light adjustments in college football and week one of the n._f._l. But brent always always a treatment. Thank you so much for joining me. We'll talk to you next week. Always talked to them there. You go. There's brett the head risk manager down at sportsbook in costa rica finishing out this week here or for us on radio coming up on our monday edition of bloomberg radio. I'll do the box to start things off for the first half of the show. We'll have kyle hunter from hunters. Sports picks dot com big week in college football going from week one to week two with all the adjustments and all that different type stuff so i guarantee you. We'll have plenty to talk about in that week to college football. I i look segment lots of great content for this weekend over at bang the book dotcom covering all things college football for you plus nascar mother stuff so mix. You take a look over bang book dot dot com. I'll do it for me. They thought listening. Everybody and i will talk to you again on monday. Now is the chance to use reliable energy energy to grow your money with the dominion energy reliability investment. Our new investment product offers competitive returns no maintenance fees and flexible online access to your money. 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The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook NFL Playoffs Divisional Round January 10, 2020

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

26:15 min | 1 year ago

The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook NFL Playoffs Divisional Round January 10, 2020

"We got one more guest one more segment here for this January tenth edition of Bloomberg Radio that is with the head risk manager down at the sports book for this week's version of the odds report. Right how's it going today. Man Glenn wonderfully well. I mean looking forward to the the big college football game on Monday that it Kinda everyone watching and everyone's going to be betting as well. I mean that's one of the most overwhelming overwhelming games we have kind of exceeds. NFL playoff action. Being the only game going fantastic boy on night game and you know it's interesting talking looking ahead of that it's like it's one of those games. Where the sharp action released as the same? I mean sharp. Dome play game just because it's on TV or just because it's a national championship game or whatever but the the public can just massive so always look forward to that helps us in terms of our risk manager those games and of course we got the NFL playoffs getting US closer. Closer to the San Francisco Forty niners being crowned champions. ooh Okay. There's an interesting call. We'll get to that here in the NFL side of things but You know we are recording this on Thursday evening props not yet posted over at GSI. In fact I don't really see them anywhere in the offshore market yet as we're recording here. They should start to pop up on Friday or on into Saturday so unfortunately unfortunately we don't have those to talk about. We did touch on them a little bit last week. We'll touch on briefly really here in a couple of minutes but before we get into the CLEMSON versus Lsu game. I ask you about this before. We started recording here. Jim's Madison North Dakota State on Saturday take it is the national championship game. You're going to get any kind of significant handle for this. This is my pause for effect. No not really no. I mean we'll get we'll get okay action on it but not it's not a big volume game in most the accident we do get. We'll come on the day of the game game. If there was any value sheriffs be found on. This would have been hit already Whether you might be fact from this game and this total has dropped down I see the highest opening number was fifty two and a half down about forty eight and a half now but nothing you know inhouse nothing sharp on that side in terms of the spreads basically just popping back forth between James Madison minus one to North Dakota state minus one to pick them where we are right now all right so we go to Monday night down here Clemson and Lsu you LSU still painted five and a half across across most of the offshore market a Lotta sixes out at the brick and mortars in Vegas. What are you guys got going on? What number you at any updates on the action? You know not not really to be honest with you. I mean we talked last week. I believe it was five and a half or five and a half minus fifteen. I think last week when we talked I was five. And a half minus fifteen one of the books out there respectable book takes you know good heavy sharp actions well with sitting at minus five minus fifteen five five and a half. You know. It's not like we're talking about key numbers here in college football. So I'm still five and a half minus fifteen those books that were five or now five and a half minus fifteen. It's pretty much pain way across the board as you said there are some six is out there elsewhere. Total your total as well. I mean we open house at sixteen nine and a half. I'm still sitting at sixty nine and a half half now. I do have a wage accountable to one towards the over you just slightly higher than that. My waiter count. I think when we talked last week was three and a half to one fearing LSU and it's still over three to one favoring Lsu so just from what I see is just public money going. That way. I'm we're minus five the countless three to one LSU LSU sitting at five and a half. It's still three to one favoring. LSU So five you know five and a half really hasn't done anything and you know we talked about before how you know the whole season started. How handicapping these these Games is just like a completely different animal during the regular season handicapping college football games you're talking about your comfort stats really influenced your handicapping now? It's obviously conference. Death get thrown out the win the window. You talking DOC Mullick a run heavy conference pass heavy conference and how you numbers all get screwed. Defensively is stuff like that a pack twelve verses. You know you know a big ten. Or what have you so the numbers I get thrown out the door. I'm talking about long layoffs as well different preparation schedule so these are really unique to any other callers football game and it's to be honest with you. It's kind of difficult and looking at you know you're talking about handicapping. Non Conference matchups nowadays so it is really a bit of a a difficult task at hand and looking at the number how. It's opened up five and a half here. We're still five and a half an open. sixty-nine still there I'd say. At least we got the right number in terms of balancing our action. I could see myself. The current action creeping towards six haven't gone there yet just to see what the market goes. Well and I mean do you get the feeling that maybe sharp money just kind of waiting on Clemson pick off one of those straight sixes if it comes out there it could be you know but I don't know I mean there are there are six is zelter and you figure yeah you like as you said the brick and mortars maybe if they took a hit they probably would just helping on her anyway based on the. They'll get this weekend on that game so I no. I really don't know six. The number where they come back is at six and a half right now. Like I said I I do have a waiter countable three to one fearing Lsu if we have Zeno state where we are we'll be okay if the market goes up to six obviously going to go with them if the market goes back down. I'll probably still hold my five and a half position simply because I'm still getting three times more bets the Lsu at that price one again obviously for listeners. Here we are several days in advance of this game and several hundred thousand dollars in advance of this game but if if this does come down to something like five would it be an indication of clemson sharp money. Yeah I feel safe to say that I just don't see you know. The the public has definitely kept their hand in terms of where they're going like I said even at five and five and a half. It's still a solid three to one count fearing LSU. So I think baskin hold true. I've I've seen a few by points back and forth and sell points back and forth. Where even at six counts slightly favors Lsu? But it's kind of balanced out there so that seems to be my early. Look that six might be the number. If I'm looking at the balance action but again we still GONNA waste to go into this game on a lot of action coming in on the weekend. Of course the game is just GonNa be crazy volume one. Of course all that money. That's going to come in as well and something that I guess we can Kinda talk about here a little bit from having talked about this with the Super Bowl last year's national championship game stuff. I like that a Lotta Times shirt betters looking for unders and of course public betters looking over so you know maybe that kind of factors into this weekend and some of the activity that we see out the markets. Yeah no that's definitely factor and again it's just a general tendency to for for sharp guys will look for value on the and again we talked about before how you know embedding a AH betting wishing for something exciting to not happen in terms of. Hey let's not have scoring list not have exciting game so at the number. I'm using right now. All the sixty nine and a half. I've still my count is almost three to one. Favoring the over at sixty nine it was about two to one towards the over so seventy the number I don't know but we could pop up there and find out soon enough. As far as the props stuff goes again. Obviously we'll be able to talk a lot more about for the Super Bowl here but I want to ask you. I want you to put your handicapper hat on for a minute. What are you sort of see from this game? What is your thought on it? How do you anticipate the game flow? You'll do expect a higher scoring game. A lower scoring game was think about the outcome here. Why I mean you touched on a right? There I mean game flow is is is the key I mean you look at last week. I guess Minnesota's is a good example in terms of just adjustments and stuff like that but New Orleans just didn't seem to me kind of kept Minnesota in the game until the yen. Now you know with their teams passing a lot or running a lot. Foils down a whole lot to two game flow. You Look at Baltimore in Tennessee. That could be could be a back and forth game teams. Get ahead comfortably. You're GONNA see a heavy run attack. Axel kind of the game flow is a very difficult thing to do. I think what we're going to get is just a ton of action. Obviously on the two quarterback props my my my feeling would be a lean towards the over. I think it's going to be that kind of a game all right so let's move over to the NFL side of things. You're talking about the four divisional round matchups beginning Saturday afternoon. Game three one three zero to Minnesota and San Francisco seven painted pretty much across the market. Here we did have some six six and a half earlier in the week. Those are gone. The total by and large forty four. Yeah I mean the reason that that six and a half money is gone is because sharp money grabbed it as well. That was sharp money on San Francisco minus six and a half. And you know it's kind of helps us in terms of you know when you see a team like Minnesota get the big upset as they did as I mean that line open open New Orleans minus eight close seven and a half dog juice or or minus seven minutes if we took a dramatic drop down of the key number of minus seven. And of course I know Minnesota getting the the the late win for us but that was obviously a really big result. Kind of people look at the game while if Minnesota could hang with New Orleans then they should be able to do it with San Francisco now obviously if you look at the odds to win the super bowl and such there was a big difference between San Francisco and New Orleans that time even though the records were both thirteen and three. Okay so you know it is interesting when you look at this number like the opening number of saints was minus eight at home and now you've Got San Francisco opening basically minus six and half also at home is you know and I think that's what you if you WANNA look at the overreaction to Minnesota win that's kind of like you know an indicator under right there it's like if the the saints open eight you know. How do you have San Francisco opening up a six and a half and the sharps? Grab that six and a half. I'm at seven right now. There are some seven seven minus one. Fifteen out there. I just you know my feelings numbers going to creep up you know. We'll probably end up being seven minus being seven minus one twenty seven and a half wouldn't wouldn't shock me at all so this one of those cases where the Minnesota upset is favourable results for us. Wait account right now in. This game is almost dead even which is which is great for us. I do see this number hanging around seven maybe even creeping up I just think San Francisco obviously already got the action from the sharp side. Even though the fact that we're ballast else right now. I think it's going to continue to trend up in matchup wise. It's very difficult to compare team for team. In terms of the speed is San Francisco has both on offensively and defensively the receivers that they have no knockabout drew brees as well but you know Kinda that one of the things that he's not a guy who goes deep a whole lot Jimmy will. We'll definitely go deep. He's got samuels. He's got Sandra he's got you know arguably the best tight end in the league and got running backs for both solid running the ball and catching the ball of the backfield. So it's I mean it's really difficult difficult to stop that team that being said I've got under money as well which came into sharp at under forty five and a half so both side lentil. This game are sharp at San Francisco minus six and a half from the side the under forty five and a half is where the sharp money came in. I'm sitting at forty four as well and again talk about the you know handicapping and kind of a narrative and all that kind of stuff with these games you talking about you know. Minnesota does have to travel They didn't have the by last week. Like San Francisco. Did you've got stuff to talk about. digs you know. He's he's like not feeling well he's sick under the weather Themes always knocked up and of course the quarterback situation there are no one really believes that quarterback quite yet with Minnesota Minnesota. I think so I think you know I really think just personally that the niners are the right. The right side defensive front seven. Is You know the fastest in the NFL. Well need bandages with that is they. Don't have the blitz to get pressure on the quarterback so cousins in the pocket under pressure. I think is going to be very interesting. Very telling how he handles that one. I think something else. That's really interesting about this game. And about the sharp action. That as you mentioned was on San Francisco minus six and a half if you remember back in early December San Francisco at New Orleans that line open New Orleans in the three with juice three and a half ranch got bet all the way down to one or two out there in the marketplace so San Francisco took money in that game against New Orleans. Now San Francisco opens a smaller favorite against MINNESOTA THAN NEW ORLEANS. Did that's kind of what you're talking about in terms of maybe looking for something of an overreaction to what we saw last week yeah and like I said in this case with the sharp money being on San Francisco and my counting ballots. It kind of you know definitely goes in our favor that people people are following that narrative and and I get it. I mean it's easy to to look at say. Well if they can hang with them they can hang with them The other thing too. I mean we all know that Minnesota plays on a fast surface endorse. They went to New Orleans where they were playing on a faster indoors. Now they're going outdoors on a much slower surface. And you know that that definitely I think will have an effect on the game as well. I think it's going to slow down the running running game as well and I I think I personally I think Minnesota's GonNa have a whole lot of problems The By of course is very favorable for the niners and how they closed the season. They played Green Bay at Baltimore. The New Orleans game that you mentioned You know they lost two in Atlanta team that close the season four and six and two in the second second half they beat the rams and they wanna Seattle and that was the top of the top in terms of competition. I mean they had a real high strength of schedule. Still Finish Dell real strong now as you mentioned last week Minnesota with that wind pretty good for the house. It knocked out. All the teasers ahead New Orleans in it with something you probably desperately desperately needed being able to get New Orleans down to minus two minus two and a half another outcome. That was pretty good for the books last week. Tennessee over New England and the titans here game three zero three three zero four getting nine and a half or ten out there in the market against Baltimore Tennessee. Though very good to you last week what do you think this one's going to look like again. This is another case where this numbers if Tennessee didn't beat New England. I'm just the same as you say. It was a normal game regular season game. This number I believe would be higher. I think it's going to hang around ten right now. It's nine and a half and juice or like say ten fifteen there. I think it's going to be a solid ten and Tennessee money to come at plus ten I still think Baltimore is kind of the the sharper side. And obviously we're not GONNA have any trouble getting money on Baltimore even now Rick Right where we are at the the nine and a half and the juice still almost dead even with my council got two games now back where my wieder count is very very solid at nine and a half and even just slightly favors Tennessee. So let's good for us. I think at ten Tennessee. Money will still come. We basically open the same where we are right now. you know the total Did Open forty seven rough forty eight. I think that might continue to pick up. Also the you know the spread itself was ten dog twenty or nine and a half minus on fifteen is basically held where it is right now so you know Baltimore. I really don't have to tell you much about Baltimore. Having won twelve straight games and stuff like that they have the by as well on again. Same thing with the talking more the defensive front seven you looking at Tennessee and yeah you know. It's an easy sell in terms of the running game. They have and Tanna Hill. Doesn't learn how to do a whole lot on the thinking is well in terms of backing Tennessee's while if they beat the Patriots they can certainly hang with Baltimore was in double digits you would think but again unbolted front. Seven is just so much bigger and better than the Patriots. I think that's going to be a you. Know a real factor in this game and again at Baltimore gets right ahead. You know out ahead and compound the ball on. You're talking talking about how the the game plan might go. That's going to be a big big issue. Got Lamar running the ball. You Got Ingham Raina Ball. You've got solid tight ends. They go to his well and still you know we talked about last week. How Tennessee heading into that game with the Patriots had the you know the worst secondary in the playoffs and they've basically had bad results versus niece scheduled? I think is going to be a problem for them as well. I'm I'm not predicting a blow about predicting this number goes to a solid ten or or higher. What about the total? I mean I was a little bit surprised to see kind of that. Initial move on the under. What do you think happens with a total? Is the game gets here. Yeah I think I mean this number hit forty six and a half and I. I didn't happen house but I'm thinking was sharp money or maybe pseudo sharp money to influence them way. That came back the other way my feeling is this number ticks back up. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this one back up to forty seven and a half looking at my chart right now. I'm pretty much even I. I do have slightly more best towards the under by the over. This game is one of those where I think could could get high on. Yeah I think this number is going to go up. Just based on the toll I kind of hit his bottom at forty six and a half and started keeping map bob up right now. You know going back to Tennessee. Though as as well look at Tannahill what he did last week I think he was. He was like seventy five yards. He threw four on eight. Eight completions or something like that. So it's it's like they won with really really bad numbers you just can't do that versus the Ravens aren't so as we mentioned here on Saturday shirt. Money on San Francisco Andy under we transition over to Sunday. Here you're game three zero five. Three zero six is Houston and Kansas City. We got shirt money in the early game here. Once again yeah. We got trump money on again on a solid all at favorite here with the candidacy. The at home. It's one of those cases where again Houston winning. Houston's got a brand name players that you can kind of sell to the betting public and such coach but I just didn't work for us in terms of the opening number in host. We opened up minus eight. We're sitting at nine and a half right now. So it's a point now move is really really quite substantial. Sharp money came in there on Kansas City. Of course moving out one again the by obviously at you know an advantage for them we talked about. Kansas City's defense has been much better than it was early. In the season they close season. Having won six straight games on these two did play early in the season in Houston won that game so that kind of one of those factors that you think people might keep in mind. I think Houston won the second quarter of that game like twenty or nothing went onto win that game by I seven but right now. My count is just slightly favoring Kansas City a slight count towards the total but going over but just just very slight the so. I've got sharp money and and abet counsel in Kansas City's way again this number two I I think this stopping point on this half is probably going to get to ten where it's going to hold their I I don't see going above Tim but I could certainly reaching ten. Are you surprised that you're only slightly higher on Kansas City or is that maybe an indication of just how little money has come in on this game here so far no it. Just you know just more of an indication as you know Texans for whatever reason I guess you know with with Watson the quarterback and stuff like that they still have you know there's kind of like a brand name You know the dynamic place that he made on the weekends. Welcome to stick in people's minds and again you're talking about you know a Kansas City team. Who maybe wasn't you know as impressive earlier in the season as they you know they closed quite well and there's kind of the perception that even carries back to last season where they weren't very strong defensive even though that might not be true sure now we still have that perception that leaves with people and I think you know we've going back if he could see if I could reopen this game? Yeah obviously go higher. But I don't think you you know really I don't think necessarily a bad opening number on this game. All right one more game to talk about here in the NFL. Plus the divisional round. And this one I would say says clear as mud game three seven. Three eight Seattle in Green Bay does seem like at this point in time no green bay getting more of the respected money as this number starting to creep up. Yeah no this game right on news clear as mud and and you can kind of go back to the the game last week as well as Seattle Philadelphia when we did this show I believe Seattle gala was like a minus one and a half point favorite. My talked about how you know of Earth's and sanders were both going to go from Philadelphia often back down on a pick em and it ended up being a pick em or some books even Philadelphia minus one now again with Sanders and hurts did play and then of course Wednesday basically got gave him a colder and that was nothing he also. That was not a good result for us. The public was still all over the seahawks in that game and they've been a public site for for all the season. This count as well on this game. Same thing I've got a whole lot of action going Seattle's way countable total one their way but it's mostly publish going that way it's just kind of the perception of of Green Bay being a false thirteen and three which is kind of strange in that they would close the season winning five straight and they're coming off a bye they're seven and one at home. I mean how do you how do you kinda hit. Kick them now. But you know this is kind of like the receivers. Kinda aren't aren't what they used to be the running games. Maybe not what it used to be on with. Jones is doing decent job though. But I I don't know it just kind of just the perception of the Mark Green be I think is is down. It's kind of like they're selling on Green Bay and they've been buying Seattle all season long so I think that's kind of what kept US number round on where it is. The odor of four went up to four mine is one fifth dean of Ford Dog. Fifteen back to four. I think some three and a half minute fifteen's even pop out there at four was pretty good two-way action. They'll hallmark basically went up to four and a half. So there's a couple of four four minus fifteen there for everyone else is pretty much four and a half and holding strong there so me in house I mean. I've got even a four ahead a waiter accountable. Three to one favoring Seattle Seattle I did get some briefly and even counter three and a half aiming at four and a half is coming. SEATTLE'S WAY SO I. My tendency is probably hanging around. Four minus one fifteen even though there are some four and a half out there but there are there are some four minus fifteen as well so this is you said it clear as mud. This number just keeps getting beat back and forth between between the four and four and a half Heavy resistance on both sides at four but again you know some of the bigger places out there have gone four and a half so I'm guessing the sharp money that way and I'm also guessing that public money's gone the other way with Seattle like it is here. Yeah that's what I was GONNA ask. I mean if if this looks like some sort of dueling sharp money back and forth or if this I feel like something that's kind of formulating into a sharp versus public split. But again like you said you know a lot of people out there in the community. Don't like Green Bay very much and that includes sharp better so this one's tough because I think both of these teams are fade teams that you want to look to play against. Yeah I mean look at Seattle again. We talk about talked about last week about what they've done done with the running game and it's just like you know I don't know what they're like fourth and fifth string that this guys that have gone in there now and guys who were sitting on the sideline and watching Games a few weeks weeks ago so it's kind of remarkable what they've done in terms of getting to you know where they are Credit to Wilson Credit to their coaching staff. As well I guess They are getting healthier on defense defense. We saw last week. I mean clowney was e- caused a whole lot of trouble in that game so it's going to be interesting interesting here. I think from what I what I've seen in house. I think the best number for me the balance going to ways is probably going to be four with four minutes one fifteen. I don't see this number getting higher than four and a half where it is right now. I could definitely see the market kind of trend back down down again. I think if the sharps have spoken they have already on Green Bay and the public. Like you said is going into Seattle's way I don't see that changing and it's funny too when you look at Cialis. There's always that perception that we've had over the years about you know the twelfth man and how strong they are at home and such then obviously they won last weekend on the road and the playoff game. There were seven wondering the re regular season on on the road as well so people can kinda buy into those narrow as well but and and kind of pushed aside the fact that Green Bay was also seventy one home. But you would say okay. Yeah well we're supposed to win at home. Now look as sharp as the eraser end of a pencil and I will admit. I've scratched a bald spot into my head with the movement. That's happened on this total because I for the life of me cannot figure out why it has gone up. I mean can you shed some light on that no up for short ads on just sit like a head. Fake is it sort of a setup to try and get forty seven later in the week with questionable weather is sort of what this is. My waiter count in this game is is is about three to one towards the under so when I say no I can't show later into it. That's the reason why. Yeah I'm getting under money and the numbers going up so sharper public school on on the total then. I can't say that because I don't have short money on ULA here. I do see forty seven hundred. Forty seven undermines one fifteen. I might feelings is number. macree troops back down but yeah I can't going above forty seven where it is right now. It's just I mean again. We analyze this industry week after week after week. It sometimes there are some things that just wind up being head scratchers. Generally if it's something I can't figure out but it's a sharper position in nature. I'm not going to butt heads with. Is it but man. That's that's a real interesting one particularly again. When you talk about January in Green Bay at Lambeau field me? It's going to be cold. It's not going to be a whole lot of funded wanted to throw the football. I really surprised by that for sure. Yeah I mean it could be. I don't know I was going to say could be not because the defensive offensive Seattle's been strong green based been decent and again you talk about like the running games yeah. Green Bay's been been probably strong within. The Seattle sale was strong throughout the season when they had both I you know Carson arson and penny there but obviously those guys are gone so yeah. It's an interesting kind of look there in terms of why this number's going up especially when looking at my waiter count and sometimes we just. I don't know the answer to everything. We Watch how the game is played well and also to hear. I mean it doesn't sound like it's that far away for these games. The Saturday games to be your two who days away. Since we're recording Thursday night the Sunday games to be three days away but man in this business. That's an attorney for a lot of money to come in on the game. Yeah and the thing to me. It's not exactly exactly you're you're you're Sunday night. ESPN game but this is basically GonNa be the the the last game of the week. Seattle base was obviously going to have a ton of action action. You can get a whole lot of public influence on the numbers. Well Brent the head risk manager down at sportsbook always help us out here with the odds report for an always a treatment. Ed Thank you so much for joining me and we'll talk to you again next week. Thank you I appreciate your help me on.

San Francisco Seattle Lsu New Orleans Minnesota Green Bay NFL Tennessee Baltimore CLEMSON Kansas City risk manager Houston football Patriots Glenn Bloomberg Radio North Dakota Jim
The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook  CFB Week 9 & NFL Week 8 October 25, 2019

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

34:13 min | 1 year ago

The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook CFB Week 9 & NFL Week 8 October 25, 2019

"John Wireless companies but track full wireless gives you control get unlimited talk and text on America's best four G. Lt Network starting twenty dollars a month no contract unlimited carryover. Excuse me captain this is your wake-up call from the new trek film wireless what's that now what if you had to fly this plane while sitting back in the cabin I wouldn't have any control well that's what it's like going not same with college basketball while you're typically find the the smaller schools the games the extra games and tolls and stuff like that were trump's tend to find value just generally speaking aside movement and the movement on the over here because you got an early kickoff again army that option team they played very very slowly San Jose state not great travel spots game one eleven one twelve year is San Jose State and Army we've seen some interesting side movement on this game it's actually the total though then we're going to focus on what some sharp money and yet they're taking a little bit of money on the side any expectation of a high scoring game so I gave I talked about on Thursdays show if you miss Thursday's show mix you swing back and check it out like watching the NBA style of play just like I tell people like wake me up when there's full minutes left in the fourth quarter and then we got a game I can't blame you for that and it's actually kind of a pretty a week or market jumped out to a big ten game here game one twenty seven twenty eight Indiana and Nebraska we gotta flip favorite situation here Brent the in both the college football and the NFL betting markets lots of stuff going on here always great to have bret with us to analyze what we've seen out there and also forecast into our first game here with some sharp money in the college football side because I'm sure there are some people that don't really like watching the service academies playing the triple option running the football a ton welcoming this way the toll was bet at over fifty one and a half by the sharps I'm up to fifty four right now I think there's a couple of places hanging around fifty three and a half well but the the one that game was just fantastic so the NBA my you know I enjoy playing the game of basketball golf on that game and again even you know speaking of public money it's not one of those games can attract a ton of public monies bessie not earlier in the week during the show on Thursday with the game on Saturday so a whole lot you've talked to before when you're playing teams like army and nights it's kind of tough to prepare for them because you don't see Assad like that all season long yeah I'm surprised to see both they find it and use it I mean it'd be nice to talk about all the Marquis Games and only the Marquis Games into house lots of sharp on everyone but that's just not the case and you know typically this is interesting line movement and again we've talked about this before and this is always a theme here I mean you don't pick the games that we talk about we just talk about the ones that sharp players bet and wherever they find yeah the one on the side has moved from nap down or nine and a half and I just kind of gone with the flown out when I think some other books have also touched nine already but I just haven't seen sharp actions funny you mentioned that that Clippers Lakers game opening night that was that was fantastic for us in terms the handle I mean the the line did move a lot clippers won outright so that was that was good I can get a ton of action from the public on a game like this one but I do have I got a bit of public money on the total and I've got sharp money that's going the same way with that so it's not over mm-hmm we got one more guest one more segment for this week on bankable radio that is this week's version of the odds with Brent from sportsbook short in a reasonable amount of time 'cause I got a lot of stuff going on here especially with the NBA now underway Brent how's it going man. NBA underway yeah actually you know what that those line moves heading on into the weekend joined now by Brent the head risk manager Donut DS is sports book for this week's version of the report we got a ton of stuff to get to here we'll try to yeah I can't read too much into this one in terms of trying to read and figure out what the injury situation is with each of these teams in terms of whether that's what's driving the movement or not Martinez for Nebraska's question mark now we're getting some reports that he's taking more reps and practices week Nebraska wasn't by last week as well so that probably dislike has flipped quite a bit was Indiana opened like minus one and a half on the road here at Nebraska we now have Nebraska's a two and a half point favorite half now do you see minus three coming I hope not I think the the driving force now after where we are now sitting when he came in coming here at plus one on Nebraska Indiana Yo a you know a decent record they're five and two Nebraska's foreign three but look at the BRASSICA the he was another game with some quarterback question mark certainly in the Syracuse sight after Tommy Devito left last week and maybe that has some correlation with the sharp movement that we've seen here yeah this one yeah I've got over money is where the sharp money came on this one number did open I believe at fifty-seven out there I was at fifty seven and a half when I got hit helps him out into the Martinez being ready for this game but I bet a waiter count as Welfare Nebraska two to one side and sharp money as well like I said it was a plus one we're up to tune I think it's going to be an injury information being the only thing that drives a number of touches three arts we go to the ACC game one thirty five thirty six Florida state and Syracuse a sharps that was on the over fifty seven and a half interesting enough I don't see this very often especially with teams like Syracuse and Florida state but I got a count favoring the under allsteel but I'm on the top of the market and fifty four over fifty one and a half is where that came in yeah you know I can't really read much in this one you've got a couple of three and four teams and no one gets wpro and maybe if he does not going to play could be the reason why we are seeing that total move around a little bit speaking of moving around we'll take pretty big leap down the board here game for public money even earlier during the week and I do have a wage accountable to one favoring the under I've got sharp money on the over fifty seven half or up to fifty nine and a half as well right now so they've had a couple of toe losses against top team with state and Minnesota was as well quarterback situation for Indiana's panics is a question one eighty seven one eight hundred eighty eight Texas and TCU and This is a game I've got some interesting so I'm curious to hear what's going on in the market about US yeah this one it's going to be the injury information of the quarterback now if you know Martinez confirmed the star panics is confirmed he's not going to see him and based on that but you know right now awful two point move on that despite the fact that the public going the other way and the reason I correlation maybe some people just think that Clayton Welsh the backup quarterback is a better option than Tommy from the public so you know again has talked about like the army game you're not going to get a ton of public money but the the you know the bigger name Schools Florida state definitely qualifies as one of them you're GonNa get more the sharp money on this game on the side that was on Texas is game it's interesting it's kind of like you know dug in at minus one area right now Texas at a pick and a half five points you got several games again with a lot of movement down on the total and I don't know if it's weather related if it's just late in the season AH questionable still but I love the upper body injuries and like do you know what happened to Hillary's hurt got sharp money now in house your account a strong leader countable five to one favoring Texas's wall so I you know I've seen this number touched one and a half I've seen to come back to minus Corser the segment we've got a five point line movement down on the total for this game we've got several totals that have gone down again this week Miami Florida and bit that's dropped the numbers now it's not like one is going to be necessarily a key number at one and a half can be a key number in college football but that was the case where the number came back down but I wouldn't be surprised you know I would say a comfortable move on a caller football towler you're talking like three three and a half points obviously if you don't have to move more than one point and other either direction that's great but you do see I shouldn't chair you know player changes stuff like that but bottom movement doubt and actually quite a few games going up to it seems like a lot of money and the totals market out there in college this week laying big numbers in sharp definitely do that they didn't this case as well again when you're talking college football basically you know once you get above ten there's no such things had a lot where later in the season for some reason whether it's you know injury information whether it's weather information you do Tennessee greater moves but usually it's correlated because you know through a came that I missed your game eighty one eighty two staying in the big twelve though Oklahoma and Kansas state my apologies are missing this one but what's going on with this maybe not at your shop but somewhere yeah even like duck like two lane and navy for example that's been like a six six now move on the total there's been you kind of expect you know they got a couple of tough games coming up and hear the big massive three plus touchdown favorite on the road here yeah and we saw people bet against Kansas state last in the market based on the sharp money coming up minus twenty one and like I said I mean Oklahoma just rolling up on teams Kansas state I think they you know they lost Baylor I guess that was pretty that was look through the Lions on Monday for this game or for this week in college football this one caught my eye and I thought okay this looks a little bit low turns out maybe it is Keke number that you worry about and we got hit with sharp minus twenty one you know Oklahoma just rolling up on teams as maybe not a bit too much of a surprise it may have been with us this week on a reading into the movement just because it did come at pick the sharp

NBA John Wireless companies America G. Lt Network Brent risk manager Donut DS one eleven one twelve year twenty dollars four G
Ep. 76  Insurance & DLT  a risk managers perspective


26:22 min | 1 year ago

Ep. 76 Insurance & DLT a risk managers perspective

"Hello Hello Hello Hello Welcome to insure blocks your decadent podcast to blockchain and smart contracts and insurance industry. I'm will lead all scuff your host just for this week's podcast will be discussing insurance and alleged technology from a risk manager's perspective and I'm very pleased to have Dr Sebastian wrath principal risk officer at Enin and Gianluca Marchi Cro at Unipol Group Gentlemen. Thank you for joining joining us today. Could you please give listeners quicken deduction on your cells. Hello everyone Gianluca team. I'm in the Union and the Union people group chief face coffey center and a member of the Zero Forum while group scenes thousand eight and previously to be appointed as the group zero in two thousand eighteen and I covered a position of avarice management so inaudible I was responsible for the solvency to and elated internal development projects obtaining the approval by the Authority group level and for the main subsidiaries stories only listed insurance group operating across life in life line of businesses. We are the the first showing through in life Italian market with about a fourteen thousand employees and fifty million customers as via handed doesn't eighteen people had died at insurance premiums of around a billion euros. Thank you for that Sebastian. Hi Dear listeners. I'm semester led me to distributed ledger technologies into personal context by talking about Hawaii into the world of Insurance Hauer Work Insurance groups in almost to see that. Dot's May play a significant part in the insurance of the future as part of my PhD. I explored the automation of large amounts of terrestrial data to automate the building of our catastrophic risk models this led me at work in London for the largest global catastrophic risk model vendor then to work in reinsurance to model and underwrite right reinsurance portfolios and pricing risks to journey further into the regulated use of capital and risk models risk-management and shaping the government transformation off insurance groups now for quite a few workflows and product value chains that I've I've seen over the course of my career. I can imagine that decentral edges or dot type solutions could offer potential to simplify insurance now I'm working several years with Enin Group. We're a financial services company active in eighteen countries notably in in Europe and Japan as an end. We commit to helping customers by securing their financial future. offering retirement services insurance investments banking products the roots of our company lie in the Netherlands and companies history stretches back tours around the one hundred seventy years. Maybe let me wrap up by mentioning that the customers of an end group range from individuals too small to medium idiom sized companies to large corporate and institutional great. Thank you very much for your introductions so as it has custody hearing injured blocks. Could you please explain to our listeners. What is blockchain and how does it work. that's a great question to start within one that also opens paper with this. Year Old Forum a distributed ledger can be considered as a database that is distributed across several independent computing devices where changes the data are protected and managed by Dhaka free consensus and providing getting guarantees that the data cannot be tempered with and that all parties have identical copies that can be considered as a reliable single souls of truth to this definition. Let's Ed that the functionality of a distributed ledger system can be enhanced by the use of smart contracts in other words code scripts deployed executed on the ledge network and oracles in the word day defeats that triggers specific conditions as pretty find within the smart contracts great. Thanks for that suggestion so I understand that you're post members of the Sierra form. Could you tell us what it is and it's work and it's also it's fishing please. yeah absolutely the. SEATTLE as an association formed in two thousand four to advance that his management practices in the Insurance Industry the pseudo photo member companies are mainly large multinational insurance company. Our members out at water across the world with the main concentration is a is a is in Europe this zero forum as three main James I avoid champion best practices senior management to advance a business sec on aligning regulatory requirement best practices injuries management and third providing insights on emerging emergent long-term risks the serial forum aims to share its views on topics related management through obligation and papers. It's in this context the paper was created by working group of Ansong at risk and technology experts from weren't people member companies including obviously an-and groper and group owed of Sebastian die today speak for ourselves not on behalf of the zero forum with least discuss our views on dot when Shane Sam of the of the zero form the content great great so to ensure. We're on the same page here could could you please please define what is chief risk officer and what are their responsibilities. Yes I tried to do that. Basically a chief risk officer ease executive responsible for identifying measuring a and addressing animatedly of risks that could have an impact on company objectives the goal of the Zeros and Reese Management in Genoa is not to avoid risks but to understand the risks to which companies out exposure and to manage and mitigate these risks adverse events should be mitigated while opportunities should be announced this heroes heroes are also responsible to spread the risk gutter to to how the company's furthermore according to the solvency to regulation when insurance company on Bunny accolade their own solvency position through internal models are also responsible for the design implementation and Management Manta of these models okay. Gianluca de mind to spending a minute just explaining to us on very high level. You know what is solvency to regulation solvency absolutely solvency deregulation is a framework and the new framework on capital requirements NSA that came into force beginning thousand sixteen at regulation that tried to create Levin Blaine field in the calculation of capital requirement ending produced a risk-based regime for Darkwa meant calculation so did On for Insurance Company that have to follow Fukuda fool collision of capital requirements and Halo Company to use a standard Broacha that is the same for each company did they dishonor formula otherwise companies are allowed to implementer to obtain approval by over an internal model internal Motorola if if framework based not only on Monta Monica Lynne statistical models but also on on governor answer on route supposedly sees etcetera etcetera aw that's a low companies to implement their own ah more della to better obtain a better presentation of the risk profile silence of the company's great thank you for that so the Cro Forum and recently published a White Paper Entitled Insurance and Distributed Ledger Technology from a risk management perspective so why is it that you guys produce this white paper and what was the objective of it yeah so hyper has surrounded his beauty alleged technology and especially blockchain over the last few years so since the birth of the BITCOIN CRYPTOCURRENCY AC- high in criticism to have been fueled by Irvine Bijon says Wella misconceptions these technologies have not yet the Lebron promises but several experts believed that dod as potential can transform the financial services sector so zeros are what position to play a critical role and threatened the innovation initiatives deceitful forum paper is meant as a practical tool for managing and the component of a productive phase of D. A. D. or of additional risk management free more remain the leader specific issues to consider when assessing assessing the risk of DOT BAYS application keep it by findings address the early stage of Deity based solution when adopted without some of these Asian face uncertainty as sweat as strategic risks of course of course so it's about him in your personal opinion what key findings findings of this report did you find interesting. Yeah I think personally I believe that the paper first of all captures today's status quo well for the insurance markets. US offer every salon just deal more importantly I think in my view is that that we used as paper as an opportunity to formulate key considerations key questions as well as advocacy advocacy opportunities where the insurance industry of the future may wish to dedicate some time and resource to shape future decentral solutions and now eventually our recommendations which we dive into later are designed such that they can inform. Dot Solutions and also importantly future standards for technology in IT aspects or strengthen the strategy and governance governance for dot partners our guidance and that's what I find interesting in the paper is both practical and specific in addressing deity applicability the dot feasability aspects governance aspects security not as well as their important profitability of course an engine look from your perspective you know what are some of your personal opinions on some of the key findings. Su I in in addition on what Sebastian say hi. Ho just add to that Babe APEC also exemplifies this -nificant solve race management that don't really stage technology driven business innovation okay the I mean. The whole debate has been going on for quite a few years and do you believe that the role risk managers have has been sufficiently engaged within that debate or have they not been engaged sufficiently while this is a good question during the workshops helps of our working group we have of course debated. Ah such wisdom macho technology even innovation in at its exploratory exploratory phase it is handle within. It business functions obviously through these paper out have deformities sharing towards for is managed Jessica dubroff actively participate and shape the future of Deity in insurance as soon as innovation most from exploratory into the deployment face and let me let me add to general come that by tools we refer in the paper for example to a risk catalog and good practices that are explicitly shared with the community for example the appendix of this year. Oh form paper one of the aims of the working group here through our work to establish a sound and join shared language for deal guilty risks and we share good practice approaches to mitigate such risks with all toolkit and we hope therefore to engage gauge risk managers addressing strategy the aspects of governance and compliance aspects of it and operations as well as the very specific and technical nature of dot topics great. Let's dive straight into some of the key points of this publication location. What role did you see. Cro's have in deonte applications and also at what stage well did centralized centralized of dot and its applications late necessary to a profile that is different from the one that raises from centralized solution so the traditional roles of risk management become therefore ugly valuable also with regards to dot and Dot Bays Project management must play a key role to permanently challenge at the Pierre related the projects through the Food Project Life Cycle and these requires involvement bald mental of this year rose in such initiatives and potentially some knowledge of top with Dina a risk management that eight south the requirement the is a very relevant to a point sierras would start considering key questions regarding for example added added yield strategy the governance the integration of the LT unknown architecture Datta End Agassi showing criteria the first crucial assessment to be done regarding dot and beauty based initiatives however is evaluating the necessity City and applicability of dot approach and I I completely agree with I mean when we looked at some of the initial deal to you. Projects were launched by insurance from even as early as two thousand sixteen. It seemed that there was missing this crucial assessment whether are now deal to you was necessary and applicable. Also I totally agree with this point. So what are some of the key other considerations insurance should look at when determining that applicability of Ideal Solution Solution to answer your question let me mention the sections off Arsia Forum paper where we explore the specific aspects on applicability ability feasability profitability the governance and security first of all. I think a working group was clear not to endorse. Dot guilty as say the only solution for future insurance efficiency improvements. That's quite important. What did we do what we do. Do we share workflow to determine where there may be genuine advantages for implementations we extend this with critical questions questions that any business case should be answering while covering the profitability aspect and while performing comparisons to non on dot solutions and all too while reflecting on the roll off non existent regulation standards are paper also support regular risk identification and monitoring and very importantly we urge risk manages to start understanding business case contexts texts and a specific role of deal tease during those are are quite relevant and very different across the diverse insurance sectors in their lines of business their products and they are required operations and consequently this informs the technical technical characteristics for any chosen guilty platform you're right. Sebastian and figure out how to specifically deal with such thus can refer to real use cases truly analyzing to Bieber the PFISTER Godse at obligation to manage that than India placement process related to catastrophic excessive loss reinsurance it grows Bruecke and the insurance and the second examines at Travel Insurance Product that we did not endorsement for travel experienced a flight lay a great grand and growing chatting a little bit more about these but from a crm perspective. What what are the events that trigger a a new risk risk-assessment if things there's probably a tricky question so far? Let me start by stating the obvious I mean. Dot Technology is such a fast moving development. Our challenge here is the pace the lack of standardization and the essential role of governance. Thank decentralized solution in needs to find to operate with civility in answer to your question ultimately the any major events such as changes in the code base could and would a traitor reassessments for risks as emerging technology the regulatory framework possibly imposes future constraints that need and will need to be managed monitored and also also adhere to so but as you said you know the environment in which we operate in the deal. T. One is one that is that moves and changes very are rapidly. How do how does a cro keep up to speed was all that because the risk must be constantly changing? I mean what do they do today to be able to keep pace with that. Change Yep. I think that was probably partly trading the need uh-huh or in the ideal for entering such a paper which starts with a lot of educational thought prices a lot of discussion and more more more so industry discussion ready now with this Euro Forum paper what we could start to do is to specify an open open list of topics where it could engage with now individuals hero functions may increase collaboration to address that while engaging on on selected. Dot Topics certainly as guilty ecosystems are developing further in the future now your question is also good opportunity entity share a few examples for needs that we identified such as the need for internal policies to inform dot adoptions options at the use of partnerships negotiations governance end ultimately the dot implementation themselves then there are needs around around developing smarter legal contracts and securing really the use of Oracle's there are furthermore needs for managing digital identities also for safeguarding contract certainty and confidentiality for safeguarding the regulatory approval process says and in certain instances. I'd say avoiding a regulatory arbitrage interesting as well well the automation of audit trails and verifications now given such list of topics what's next to effectively effectively achieve decentral collaboration which kind of triggers your question all paper identifies several insurance market enablers you can think of them as the ability to to enforce order to deliver well-defined industry guilty issues and convincing narratives then to propose feasible. Dot Solutions What really works and then to build on that a strong trust the the dot in advocacy capabilities tackling some of the tricky questions also to encourage dot leadership in some sort of champions if you like and we're getting to the stage where informing and mobilizing some of the public and the customers is also quite what key to some extent whether it plays a role together these kinds of aspects helped establish a clear path and resourceful is always full implementation and subzero functions may pick some of those topics supporting shaping and informing dot coronations his hind eat Sebastian and in our scope ability to strengthen dot enables become valuable as soon as the adopters starting gauging in using this is my opinion gentleman from your personal perspective. What aspects of dot not or do you think the opportunities and challenges can have him? What what kind of concluding statement would you like to add to this podcast. I think that commute technologies are reality and therefore insurance companies have to start thinking about the possibility to introduce sir use of these new technologies who improve their business and therefore Cero's need to be engaged engaged from the beginning and the ability to stop to think about did the role that the zero could have into the introduction of projects related to these new technologies and the definition of reese maps towards and other other instruments that could be useful at the aim to prepare a management that practiced to be ready is a very interesting a perspective from my side thank you that's a fascinating perspective and I think from my side personally. The dimension that I would add probably is sned for the insurance market at the deal will need to be watched in terms of how it plays out across cross the opportunity as well as the risk management spectrum it will combine both are because it will only be used successfully so that also means that it is probably not only the classic insurance product and insurance risk management but what you start to see is these industries adopting healty somewhat somewhat converging or blending ideas but which are referred to not only the PNC risk transfers but also the the the dot applications in the health spectrum or say in the year mobility spectrum or is well now is on mobile phones so it is quite open engine of holly emerging technology evolves how they have emerging risks in there and hold all the market really embraces that as an opportunity and from that perspective a finite personally quite exciting so that's that's something to be watched further arts from ear excellent excellent while I'm afraid we're out of time so I want to thank you both very much for sharing your insights lights on your white paper on insurance and deal. Ta from a rich Man's respective this rap subjects in blogs podcasts. We've hope you've enjoyed this episode. If you like what you've heard at this week please don't forget to subscribe to our podcast delivers reviewer nineteenth these reviews really make a huge difference so please share your views and Sebastian Gianluca thank you very much and I hope hope we can catch up in time to see how sierras thinking has evolved regarding to DLT technologies. Thank you okay and thank you and Sebastian Thankfully Ergot.

Dot Sebastian Gianluca Dot Solutions chief risk officer Insurance Hauer Work Insurance Europe risk manager Dot Technology Dot Bays Project management DOT BAYS Union people group Dr Sebastian
Summit Panel: A Discussion on leadership from the Unbeatable Mind Summit

The Unbeatable Mind Podcast with Mark Divine

1:12:59 hr | 2 years ago

Summit Panel: A Discussion on leadership from the Unbeatable Mind Summit

"Everything else higher build, but mine. The Bryant of fleets by all men of the. Oh. Hey, folks, if you haven't heard this, I'm stoked to announce that we've launched the new enhanced unbuilt mine, online course, we call. The foundation course, I spent the last eighteen months my team revamping. This course, which we originally launched in two thousand eleven all new videos, all new content, all new everything. It's fantastic. So what does it all about? Well, it's unbeatable mind it is the whole training philosophy tools and developmental model to help you overcome all your negativity feed, the courage wealth, develop the mindset of resiliency and concentration laser point concentration. So you can focus on your. She goals. Help you define your ethos or purpose in life and to align with it develop mission plan and to maintain front sight focus expand your potential. And your peak performance also to serve more powerfully and to connect more deeply it is the totality of it is the five mountain training. So were developing physically, mentally emotionally, intuition Lii and spiritually this is a powerful powerful program and about ten thousand folks have gone through many of you probably are listening this. But it's a great time to take another look if you have already seen it. But if not then perhaps his time for you to dive in and transform your life in two thousand nineteen and beyond. So I am obviously very passionate about this course, because I know it works. I know it will help improve your focus your over a health and fitness develop greater confidence resiliency mental toughness leadership, authenticity, spiritual strength, and some much more. There's tons of support to help you gain traction. On your journey of transformation. And you'll be joining a tribe of committed peers who will care about you, and hold you accountable and support you so like I said if you're looking for that total overhaul this year, then go for it with unbeatable mind, foundations course, train, align and integrate all five mounds become a world Centric, warrior leader have the peace of mind to know that you're doing everything you can to mass yourself. So that you can serve more powerfully serve your family. Your team your organizations and humanity. There you have it no small task. But you're up for let's do this together. I look forward to training you and seen you in the unveil mine online training check it out at unbeatable mind dot com, also note that we're relaunching the unbeatable mind experiences to dovetail with the content, and we'll be focusing on four major theme. Teams each experience will do these twice a year March and September will have a different theme. And we'll go into all the training and practices of the unbuilt mind model concentration meditation witnessing, visualization breath control, teaming leadership development, expanding your potential would be the first the second will be peaking your performance. The third will be connecting a deeper level and the fourth will be expanding your capacity for service. All right enough on that thanks for your support unbeatable. Mine dot com. Who ya topic is leadership in Vuko world. You learn what voca was from Brent's presentation. It's a world. We all live in is getting more interesting. So Bob's presentation was such a mind bender thinking about what is it going to be like to be alive in thirty years, and to be leading organizations, and creating organizations trying to be leading our families and ourselves in like a, but some are calling post human world. What's second of you? Like, it's going to be interesting. So let's let's see what comes of this. Thanks for joining me. Okay. All right. So shuffle the cards a little bit. Let me kick this off. It just like I said a couple of the questions here. Well, the first one is pretty much loaded. What are the tools that a leader will need to be able to operate in volatile uncertain complex and bigamous environment where the most valuable tools from your perspective? We'll start start with whoever's holding the Mike and then just toss it up in the air, and you catches it. I think we've talked a lot about training this whole of into all about trading. And that's where I've seen most organizations thrive. Obviously, we invest significantly in our leaders in the military and special operations community. But most organizations I've actually written about this a lot of research on it to organizations that are thriving, and we'll continue to thrive for the next ten to twenty years are really reshift ING a lot of their budget time and resources to. To leadership development management training as two different disciplines, obviously. And really investing in real time leadership development training for their emerging leaders better succession, planning better opportunities because all these things too. I think we would all agree that they also increase employee engagement. They increase upper, mobility and organization that increases employee retention when your team members know that you're investing in them, especially also not just from a subject matter expertise standpoint. But also from a leadership development standpoint, obviously that means there's going to be opportunity for upward mobility. There's not always opportunity for upper mobility, but there's that time and monetary resource investment that the organizations that are really thriving are investing heavily in that in that creates agile environment. Because obviously, we can't have accountable Thomas leadership decision making mechanisms if we don't give them the training resources and tools to execute. Thank you, Brian. Same question. We'll have another individual jalousie and organizational Julie things are changing really quickly. And in Chris Fussell's book on mission that you referred to he talks about how you need. Both you need both structured people who've been working structure, but you also need the agility to adjust and team of teams and one mission both talk to that specifically, and and you can't just have nothing. But agility because you do have to you have to have regulatory requirements. You have to have some some stability in your organization and some people are better manage structures than others. But if you if you don't have that flexibility in that Gillian, you're orgnization you need a leader who also has that agility in his in his or her own individual style. You're gonna get left behind by the much more rapidly adaptable organizations in a competitive world. Thanks. About. I feel as the world's becoming faster paced and more complicated. The need to slow down and become more simple as it'd become even more important. So to me leadership ten twenty thirty years from now is going to rely a lot on our ability to not be reactive to actually stop go within work on our own consciousness. So that we can respond to things rather than react to things. I think that that's going to be one of our biggest challenges as humans as things get faster as things get more advanced that we don't get even more stressed out that we don't get as frazzled and as quick paced as the world is becoming that we still take that time to remember, we aren't robots we are human beings. And again, kind of so much of what I was talking about yesterday was doing our own inner work. And that is how we become less reactive. The more clear we are inside. The more were able to be responsive and a tune to what truly is in the highest good versus reactive. Thank you Christine. Great answers. So it's interesting because I think what happens in an organization in in the same skills that are needed. There are needed here. So I worked at Kodak for awhile and. World leader, right? They would take about seven years to launch a new product a new film about seven years. How long you think it takes a new iterations of a product in digital age. Now. Three months, not seven years, seven minutes. Probably right. So it used to be control that was it. You could see it in organizations, and how hierarchy manager knows everything tells employees do now it's not controlled connect. No one person's going to know it you need to feel sent you get input from your customers from your clients from employed from people on the shop floor. That's what you need connection. So think about all the tools that would come in. There are some digital. There's Wade is get information real time information, but nothing will surpass the human connection. To be able to relate to people to have open and safe environment. So they will tell you things because if they're afraid of you, they will not tell you anything right or they'll tell you what you wanna hear. So for leaders to be authentic in open and bone -able? That that's where it starts. And if you have that then all the other tools in the digital things. And how you get more information. We'll be great. But if you don't know warmer awesome, awesome answers. So that dub tells into one of the next questions. And Jim you kind of teed it up, but how is leaders. Do we deepen trust in voca environment? Right as organizational leaders and team leaders. I'll start we'll go back. You know? And I think Mark you embody this really well, and you said this even with with. Them via benthic vulnerable. Sometimes you don't know that encourages people to want to help if you act like, I know everything them what have you like screw you find good luck. Seriously. Right. That's what people say you got. But when you say, you know, what I'm not sure let's do this together. And you pull an include people when you ask him really care about their input. Then you get that power. The team. A big part of creating trust. For me is checking my ego at the door and being more concerned about connection than about how people perceive me. And so I think that that's really important part of leadership. It's hard as a leader not to care about how perceived and it can sometimes be hard as a leader not to think we're above because we're in that leadership position. But if we can really see ourselves as we're all in the same position. And we care more about what the vision is. And what the goal is. And then we do about what people think of us so not carrying about how we look carry more about our integrity being our word and really creating a safe space for people, and it's incumbent upon leaders to start that. And I think as we check our ego at the door, and we're less concerned about how we're perceived then we're more likely to share often tickly and to really live in integrity. That was the first round of applause for responsible. My first response to that is the first step towards creating trust is to that. I worry about is my trustworthy best way to get for me to to gender. Trust is to be is to be, trustworthy, as I can be do what I say, I'm gonna do. Be as honest and authentic as I can be transparent. And I'll also go back to Jim said about Wallner ability going great little book called the culture code by Dan Quayle. Some of you heard of it. He he talks about vulnerability as one of the key aspects of of success for leaders today's world and a lot of people say, well, I will once I trust you. I will become wall normal his he turns out around and says you wanna create trust? I you show vulnerability and that opens a door other people to trust you and then for them to show Wallner abilities. So so being honest, transparent, and is trustworthy as possible that said. There's a lot of bad shit going on out there too. So we also need to be careful who we trust. And and so it's not just all unicorns and rainbows. We are going to be trustworthy, and we're going to be vulnerable. But we also have to protect ourselves. So there's a little bit of the Maquiavelian piece of that that is that is important to hold onto as we open ourselves up. Trust. But verify. What if I don't get applause after my response would be? I'm vulnerable though. It's okay. So yeah. Just I'll suffer silence. It's been said, it's really in my opinion about focusing on developing your own emotional intelligence, your self awareness being vulnerable learning to be more empathetic today's workforce really really connects. Well, with that the command and control virement does not work well in Buca world, and obviously the workplaces changing the work force is changing and they respond to things differently. But it's also about because of questions is about building trust in I talked earlier about and we've obviously said, it's it's consistency award in action inconsistency. Even from the most well leaders is one of the easiest ways to damage trust. Without even realizing you're damaging I've done it in my own companies. Especially Buca environment. There's so many things going on everything changing at the speed of war, super example. If you go out and survey your whole team, you what you give them a voice you get feedback. And then you're so busy. What happens? You don't do anything with the feedback? That's worse than not asking them for their opinion in the first place, you'd better not do anything at all unless you're going to take action on it, not all you get. But having a culture where you encourage upward leadership upward management, your vulnerables a leader. Like, you said you're pathetic that really does build trust, especially if it's often tick. But again, obviously have to be careful, but I think all these answers combined to. Give you an idea of how to you know, what a trusting environment is in an organization. Same thing. Applies to family or a team. So. I just feel bad. Okay. You don't have to clap after one. So Brent you talked about engagement as one of your key points for deepening organizational trust and alignment, so one of the questions is can you talk about strategies to have small role players. You know? And I'm thinking about naval special warfare. When we were when we became seals. Like we were the Rockstars. And then when we went to do our job, we quickly realized that we didn't get anything done without everybody else and they were the Rockstars too. And so she'll teams actually have done a fairly good job of engaging all the players, including the people who are sweeping the floor and went out so back to the question is relevant. How do we get all role plays, including the small ones in organization to feel important and engaged, especially if promotion isn't likely it's a good question. Because obviously going to to the end of the question if there's not necessarily opportunity for upward mobility and organization or for promotion things like that there's tons of other different ways to really engage everyone in the organization. Not just your subject matter experts or your senior level, folks. Obviously most important also is everyone else all of the contributors that drive that mission forward giving meaningful work. Really what I call purposeful, storytelling? So ensuring that everyone in the organization understands the mission AirAsia they connect to the vision. They have that emotional connection. Like we talked about before that's critically impairment critically important for keeping people engaged. So they understand even the most mundane tasks have have a contribution to missions excess. We did some work with with Raytheon. And one of the things we were doing we were we put together actually and engagement taskforce to go out. So I had to engage the engagement task force to go out. Engage the other people because obviously people in for example, research and development. They haven't intimate connection understanding how their job how their work benefits, the warfighter on the battlefield whereas people maybe in finance and accounting, maybe not so connected to the warfighter on the battlefield and the mission of the organization. So getting meaningful work giving decision making leadership autonomy if not in a position to really make decisions then there's other opportunity like creating cross functional teams for smaller projects and giving some of your smaller role players decision making on Tani in those smaller project teams, I think cross functional teams are great because it pulls people from different different departments different divisions of organization, and then you can give them really innovative creative things to do that also increases engagement increases retention. So there's other ways that you don't have to throw money at doesn't budge. It doesn't require people thinking they're going to get a promotion, but it's really about getting creative with it and giving people opportunity to innovate within certain combines. Hold the applause into the end, please. I don't wanna make anyone feel bad up here. My my father was a commanding officer near craft carrier. He would regularly plan visit to certain section of the ship and aircraft careers a big place. A city float four thousand plus five thousand people and before he would go he would ask he would find out information about the people in that division. We're going to be there when he went and did that surreptitiously so he'd go down into the into the into the bowels of the ship with these oiler Tech's work wasn't was around him. And he would talk to these. This was all guys at the time. And but he already know about him ask them about their kids. Ask them about their family talked about their hobbies just spend some time with him and he loved doing that because he found out so much, and he was it was so well appreciated and it made such a difference the ship that he was on. He was he just loved him. Everybody loved him there because he really did. Care any love doing that to having a leader take the time to do that. I did that a bit not as much as I should have. But you can anybody. Here's a leader can find out in your in your leadership teams who are the people who are going unrecognized in your organization who are doing great work and just people don't know about it. And for whom it would really be special. If you the boss went down and just hung out with them a little bit and ask them something about themselves. Talking thanked him for what they were doing. That's one of the ways that kind of get a hold organization engaged. This question. I I just want to echo what it's been said the connecting to the bigger mission. I was working with the company wants, and they were having a retention problem with analysts and the way we dealt with it is we just had the C suite people come down at least once a quarter and actually show how the work that the analysts were doing every single day was connecting to the profit of the company, and when they started the sea that connection they started to feel like they matter because that's something we as humans all we need that we want to feel like we matter, and we want to be knowledged and acknowledgement doesn't take money, and it actually doesn't take a lot of time. And I think that's another thing that that builds trust is when you truly knowledge people not just for the job they did. But who they are. And how they're showing up that creates that immediate connection. And I think another piece that so important is are you creating a culture of belonging. Or is it more a culture of segregation and separation based on your rank or your role? That's another thing we all want. We all want belonging. And we wanna feel like we belong to the tribe. And if there's too much feeling of separation or segregation or I'm here, and there there then people don't have that feeling of belonging. So what can you do in your team? What can you do as a leader? What can you do in your organization to, cultivate, that feeling of belonging where everybody comes together and everybody has a voice and we're not separated by our roller rink. That's such a rich question. Couple things come to mind. Firs leaders. You have to care. In not say jobs will be paid differently. Right. That's just the market doesn't mean one is more valuable than the other or a person is more valuable than the other. So you have to care about everybody. And they're they're doing a job. But that's not a judgement about them as a person or their values person. It's the value the marketplaces on that role. That's it. So one leader you have to really value people second. You really need to understand what motivates people like a lot of people talk about a vision. And they're like, yeah. But guess what are indeed people in engineer? They wanna know what's the product roadmap. Because it's cool. And we like that you can talk about any vision. If an engineer our indie person, doesn't know what the product roadmap is. They're not that interested because it's not what's really interesting to them other people. They love to be part of a team. Most managers when you ask what motivates people the most? What do they say money? When you ask them ploys, what motivates you the most money is like six, it's not nothing. But it's not number one. It's not number one. And so a lot of leaders feel compelled like, oh, if I don't give this person money, though, leave and now to what Brent said there are cultures and generations that if they don't get a raise if they don't get, you know, as fancy title, they will leave a lot of geographies parts of Asia parts of Latin America that there you gotta give him that. But understand like, we talk about the three Ps understand what your employees three Ps are understand what they're wise ask them when you have a great day at work. What made a great when you have a lousy day. What made it lousy? It's not that hard. But you have to take a little time. Ask some questions. Then you will know, right. A lot of people. Here have kids you don't treat them the same way. Right. You can buy one gift. It means different things to each of your own children. You know, how to motivate them because you know them. So it takes some time. But not that much ask them some questions, and you'll know then then if they're personally engaged, that's I then everything else that everyone said about the vision and all that. But the three Ps and one thing works brilliantly in a company. Awesome. Hey, folks, I've got a new very cool health product. I want to tell you about I only. Allow sponsors in here for products that I have used and I think are valuable this one is called mud water. What interesting name mud water doesn't make you want to eat it. But it tell you what is stream Lee healthy. So I don't know about you. But there's something about the morning ritual of drinking coffee that is pretty nice. But what if you could get the same effect and drink something completely healthy this made out of all sorts of healthy materials and give you a great effective focusing in not having the crash that comes with the coffee. So the ingredients include adept genyk, mushrooms, kakapo shy to Merick cinnamon and sea salt. 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And what a nice segue to the next question, which is in a voca world, given generational issues that have exacerbated by technology and Brent talked about the millennial issues. How do we attract and retain the type of talent that we really need that that is going to be engaged and trustworthy and developing into whole people we attract recruit and retain these. So Brent earlier talked about culture, I like, Dave. Wiggs monitoring talks about culture, which is a big word. And it means a lot to stop and one. It's really hard to design people talk about engineering culture, that's hard. But so have processes and structure, and you can have talent and leadership. But the thing that's really really important that most people leave on the table is mindset. A lot of people have skills. But you can have someone as a skill set. That doesn't have the right mindset. They're not gonna help. So how would you understand what the mindset is? I you've gotta get that. What are your beliefs? What your vision what your mission? Then you align your process to that. How do you hire for that? How do you develop? How'd you reward? How do you tell stories about that? But you know markets you said take a long time to hire and quick to fire. Right. But you've got understanding and Brent you said earlier, I think the mindset. Is the most powerful component of culture everything else. You can hire build. But mindset, you you you have to get right? Yeah. I love that. I always say you can you can train skill. But you can't train attitude that much so hire for attitude trained for skill. The millennial conversation is an interesting one I've been speaking and study millennials for the past decade. And now we have jen's e or the I gen generation we're going to debate on what we're going to call it coming into the marketplace. And they actually still young. They're like the oldest is twenty twenty two. But that generation is already starting to mimic more of gen-x, then millennials. So that means they they actually care more about money than millennials did at their age millennials were really into I need the title. Everybody. Made the joke about millennials getting trophy for nineteenth place at field day and. Wearing flip flops work. Obviously the joke is still funny. And that's good that after fifteen years. It's still funny. But gen Z. They don't seem to have that sense of entitlement. Because they they saw their parents struggle more financially, the millennials millennials where the children baby boomers, they had the wealthiest parents if any generation so far, and they had very helicopter. I call it. Cockpit parenting parents because they didn't hover they actually flew the plane for their children so often. And so that that created a lot of that. And so in the workplace managers have had to do a little more hand holding with millennials. And that's that's kind of old news millennials now like are thirty seven thirty eight years old. So they're in leadership positions in management position. I'm sure there's tons of millennials in this room. So I think in terms of retaining that kind of talent one I think, oh what I see a lot of leaders and managers miss is. They don't involve the generation they want to attract in the hiring process. So if you have a rockstar, millennial employees. Why in your organization, I don't care if it's your assistant? Okay. What their title is have them involved in the recruitment and hiring and even interviewing process because if they're rockstar reading your company one they're gonna know other ocsta- people and to their you're going to be able to think of questions in the interview process that you may not. So I think that's important thing to do. And then again, it all comes back to the things we've been talking about transparency having a mission having a place where when I come to work there. I feel like I'm contributing to something that matters jen's e is still going to want that even though millennials were more likely to take a job because it was cool. And because they felt like they were doing something that mattered, and they would sacrifice things like salary and health insurance and that kind of stuff because they could still live a mom and dad's house the jen's e not so much. They want the salary and the benefits and all those things and they demand integrity. They demet. Transparency. They still want to work for organizations that are doing good in the world. Wow. I got three millennial kids. And mentioned one of them is struggle with depression. And he's hard core because he's hung in there. And then the other two are harder than I am. So some of them are doing, okay, I guess. But I think the question is kind of two parts one is getting getting him into your organization getting the right people in the hiring process. And what I am for size. When I'm talking to corporate groups that I think where they normally missed the boat is is having an on boarding process. Which is a part, partly is which is largely in the culture ration- process and getting to know each dating before you get married or living together date with her in the hiring. And then you live together. And then you hope we get married and most companies have very poor on boarding processes and the orchid one organization that I've moved into and I got out of the navy. They had they kind of put a check in the box. But it really wasn't very. The seals. That's what seal training. It's an on board. It's a cultural on boarding process. I didn't when I went through my training with Mark with you. And a brand I'm not sure when you went through, but they didn't have a skew t at that time built into buts or was it. You did. Okay. Well, we went through there didn't train us to do anything. We couldn't do anything. But both. We just got our asses kicked. But we, but we were acculturated. We couldn't do. I mean, we thought we could. But we couldn't. And then we got. But now they actually build it to the reality was it was good because there was a strong acculturation on boarding process. Then we got trained got into his Asian retaining him as a different a different deal. And and you're not not going to be able to keep all your good people. Some of the people you may have the best culture in the world. Some people say, yeah. Well, I got this offer for ten thousand dollars for a job, and they're going to go, and I I've talked to several people done that. And they come back on their hands in these begging to come back because they got the ten thousand dollar raise in the culture sucked. And they hated it. And he said it wasn't worth ten wasn't worth twenty. So so talking to the people so you're gonna have to just they're going to learn that the hard way that the culture that they work in his most important thing and Daniel pink wrote a book called Dr eager aware of it. And and people are in and he says people really motivated by three things primarily money isn't one of them is autonomy mastery and purpose. And if you're engaging with people and talking to them, and letting them know that you that that you're aware that there everybody is working for you is already looking for other jobs too. That's given. And when they leave and they choose to leave for whatever reason then wish him. Well, I hope they come back if they're good Nassau good. Then then good on you. But I think that that again. Bringing them in bringing the right people in and keeping the right people once they're in two different two different, but related issues that are worth thinking about. Yeah. Actually, my class was the first class to show up to the team with their tridents. Let me tell you how well that went over. Been into what a happy head is. Okay. We'll skip that little team hazing that they allow hazing in the teams, and you mentioned flip loss. Funny story as my last company we were growing in going from start up to mature organization. So as leaders don't make rules, just for the sake and make it rules. Right. Just to have more structure more metro station of the organization. So we're having more clients coming into the office. And I was like, well, you know, we. I took the flip flops away. Holy hell. It was like a revolt happened. They had a leader they were organized. There was a committee. There was the leader of this. This revolt always worked out in the gym in the office. Same time. I did every day. I'd walk into. Hey, Chris what's going on buddy? He's like so. So. And he was really smart. And he was always right. So why why take the flip flops away? So technically, you're telling me that I could be in nice fancy jeans flip flops and a nice Chris polo shirt, but somebody could be in combat boots baggy jeans, and a t-shirt and still be within dress code. I was like damn it. He's writing. Flip loss. Back. Morale sort. But everything that's been said, it's really about being much more careful in your talent acquisition strategy ensuring that strategy alliance with your on boarding program, your on boarding program, aligns with your professional development programs, a lot of organizations have each of those, but they're very silent. And they don't connect well with one another one of the things that we did. We'd been our turnover was increasing. We had a lot of very technical smart people. But we only been hiring for subject matter expertise. That's it an analytic sky or a coder a program or whatever it is the best of the best great get him in here's quickly as possible. Totally the wrong thing to do and our turnovers was was too high, which of course, affects sufficiency it affects productivity affects morale it affects your ability to service clients. And so we actually took a page out of the w process for when you when operators aspire to go from the vanilla seal team's to our tier one asset. I take physical screen, and then they go to basically a selection committee border. View before the even allowed to go to the lengthy and rigorous additional training, they go through before becoming a tier one operator, and essentially you're sitting in hotseat in front of a very cross functional team from that organization, and they basically ask you questions for as long as they want and keep in mind. These are all combat experience seals. So basically subject matter experts. They're good at what they do. That's not what this process is about. It's about shared values. It's about culture, it's about where your moral compass lies how you think how you make decisions. So they give you all scenario based questions and things like that. And a lot of guys don't even make it through that process to even go into the training program. So we took a page out of that book and created a much lengthier talent acquisition program and a longer interview process. So longer interviews for obviously for technical people even do tests before they come in for their first interview, but we also screened for other things too as far as you. Iki y or emotional intelligence or things like that? And then they come in for selection committee board review, and one of the greatest things said before is that that committee would rotate people it was mandatory volunteer voluntary. But it had to be people from different positions from the most junior person in the organization from different departments Dipper divisions people that but all people you could tell this because they've owned here for it. Because they care about the culture they care about protecting the culture and managing it people who really embodies the core values of the organization will volunteer for things like this. But also, it's great because they have a voice in who they bring into their world into their environment. So it's a great process for the individual as well because they know they've gone through that rigorous program. Once they join the team, they feel empowered because they know that they were accepted by across team within the organization and once we did that. And again, they'd already been vetted for subject matter expertise that was off the table. It was again, it was about culture how they think what. They care about we make them do a presentation to us. But we didn't tell them what the presentation needed to be. Basically, why do you think you're a good person to join this organization, and we would ask them questions for another thirty minutes. And then after that after we would ask them to say goodbye, they leave and then right then and there the committee would make about it was either eighty five percent thumbs up and if not five percent thumbs up and we'd have to rethink or we wouldn't hire the person. So it's just being more thoughtful in who you bring in how you bring them in the Bob Senator earlier, the retention program retention strategy is a whole different ballgame, and it's more complex, and it's ever been. So I'll just it's been set slowly. Do one more. And then maybe take a few from the audience, and then we'll wrap this up. So as you look ahead as vocal leaders. What do you think your biggest obstacle will be? And how will you address it to overcome avoid it? I think to your point earlier is that we talk a lot about today's workforce generation, the millennials and things like that. But now we have continued to have you not to overuse his term, but multigenerational workforce where everybody's motivated by something different. And now we have the next generation coming in like you said they're more like previous generations do care about upper mobility care about money. Great wonderful. We're going to give raised everybody. But that's a whole another thing. Make sure you budget for that people this new generation. Having having mechanisms in place to motivate and retain all different types of people. And again, that's like it was said earlier, that's one of the burdens of command is getting to know, your people truly caring about people, and the people that you lied authenticity being vulnerable. But really taking the time out of your own busy schedule to to understand how you need to lead everyone in the organization differently. And how you need to connect with them differently. And that's all that's never gonna never gonna change. It's only going to get more complex as the world becomes more complex. Because like I said, we're moving at the speed of war, and it's only gonna get probably more complex before it gets less complex. So again, it said before just you have to slow down. Sometimes the teams we say don't run to your death sometimes on enemy target. You know, what I'm saying is, you know, take it slow assess risk and use speed and aggression when necessary same thing applies from a leadership perspective. Even though you're in a fast paced environment, the things they really matter. We have to slow down think about it critically an execute. So that. We can retain Greytown acquired new talent and build a culture that really matters. It's going to actually connect with the vision of the organization. Nice. My challenge is is mytalk people who are kind of in the midst of their careers and are. Operating at work speed moving forward doing all the stuff that you have to do in your thirties and forties and whatnot. My challenge is to get people. Invest in something outside of just their their media career say there's there's something else that you need to invest in other part of who you are. And I see particularly in the seal community can be such a totally gauging fulfilling. And then when they leave that they have nothing left, except they're buddies in the war stories and trying to encourage people to develop a hobby developed some kind of advocation or some to develop yourself outside of your identity as your in your job and really become what we call a guest in the military, the whole man now the whole person because we have a lot of women in there now too. And and. I advocate for that. And I get blank stares. Like you kidding? Too busy to have a hobby. And then there's a prize when I share these hobbies that I have do it. Well, they started developing them back when I was in my twenties, and they are serving me. Well, now that I'm well into the back nine, and they serve me very well while I was also in the game. So that's kind of my. Oh, yeah. Right. I would I would I would like that like to I like the living to be two hundred hundred and fifty of it as age thirty. I don't want to get to eighty five and say, okay, you can live like this for another one hundred. So that's that's the part that that's that's my personal challenge. I think I share one of your challenges in that getting people to invest their time and resources proactively in the personal growth rather than reactively. A lot of times people come to to me in a lot of the coaches in the room when thanks hardy there in an expectation hangover. So how do we get more and more people investing in that proactively like, not let's not wait until we have a massive expectation hangover to do that. And I'd say to other key things. I see his challenges one just attention span. Feels like the attention span of people is getting smaller and smaller and smaller, and our windows really reached someone is getting smaller and smaller. So how do we really get someone's attention in this mall window, we have? And that coupled with what I like to call cheesecake factory paralysis. Then he went into the cheesecake factory that menu. I've counted just because I was curious hundred twenty seven food choices. That's not including cheesecake flavors, that's a lot. And I think that in in our world people have so many choices and so many options. So how do we really stand out with integrity? You know, not stand out with just marketing tactics. But how do we really stand out as leaders and organizations with integrity? But all that said, I see way more opportunities than I do challenges because I think that again back to what we've been talking. About as the world is speeding up. I feel there's going to be more of a need for connection. Trust phone ability belonging, purpose all of those things and everybody in this room values that you're that kind of leader otherwise you wouldn't be in this room. And I feel these kind of leaders are really going to rise to the top because people are really really craving this kind of leadership. Thank you. So I think the challenges on the flip side is also an opportunity and kind of echo. What other folks have said people want engagement? But you look at you know, I heard the other day people's look at their phone every twelve minutes, and I'm like, I think it's more than every twelve minutes as I looked at my phone and tap it twenty six hundred times. And so we can mimic that with teams because there's a lot of good ideas. And we can mimic that in organizations because there's a lot of good ideas. But just as we talked about these last few days, we have to look at our priorities. Right. Is Greg said in in his session where what your hierarchy what's most important to you? And then focus on that. Because it's not going to get less volatile less uncertain less complex and less ambiguous. Do you think it'll get more folks? So as about a product friend of mine, the only all you have is that which occurs an emergency. It's called a sleep remedy. So the training we're trying to during my warm, and some just every stuff can't say enough about it heart of it is organizational goes in the wake of feeling groggy is so land, and it was like that are going to be guest and have biggest return, partly designer lines with ABC's, skillset value, non go after it and live. Him and they were having a huge problem with heroin fears seals cops have this on light something. Okay. I should say, right. Right. You know that? So he'd been monitoring things from things bouncing around phone is sort of associated with developing, I think or the chemical or. Hey, addict front sight focused silicates, sleep. And so. Put it every individual's. That's his accessories. Markets now for a little while awesome answers and Todd. Radial when Vuko Sion's volatility on your motion balanced. Housing. You're in this half hour all razors. Razors. We're experiencing actually thirty percent. We give to work single you at. You at your level by developing them slowing. Discussed here, and the all deal freese with increased also better thing else just night of sleep where you laugh or two years could be one of our our simplicity the other side of complexity partially sleep rents have been able to concert important. What's really important that you need when you go to sleep ROY freeze and like. Oh, yeah. Thousands of people like responders navy. Does getting to that simple. Find the other side or useful. Very very interested in trying to key question all the money back. And you can get off by deal with. Into find the dock to get L E, Y dot com. Right. So enter unbeatable mind in the coupon code box at duck Percy dot com. I recommend check it out. We all. So any other burning questions for this esteemed panel? Now's your opportunity. Yes, sir. Just shouted out. Until the Mike comes to you. And ending. Is is also a. Older year. You're at eight. I'd start with become excellent. Asking questions, I think that one thing that leaders. Good leaders exceptionally. Well is ask excellent questions and really really listen. Especially in a culture of doubt, maybe things that people and topics are a little more sensitive when someone comes with a problem when they come with you to with the complaint asked them a lot of questions help them get to their own answers. And I think that the more we do that the more we can see how quipped someone on our team truly is to handle situation and the more we can make decisions because again in a fast paced world as leaders when you feel a lot of pressure is on us. We can feel the pressure to make decisions quickly and not take the time to ask a lot of questions. Get really curious really seek to understand before we make any decisions. So you saw Christine yesterday with Alice. Right. Thank you Alice for being brave enough to come up here and very, yeah. In Cristine, by the way. If you don't listen to a podcast just do. She has two things went. I'm wednesdays. She coaches people live in Saturday has a coach's corner, which I think was Mark was and so you will and then she kind of debriefs it. So it's awesome. But she'll talk to someone in and very quickly get to the heart of the matter, which was invariably net. What they asked right because the they understand that. So the other thing is and some of you experienced here today. I had someone say I've never told anyone this before. How are you able to do this? And you say this all the time if people say, I don't feel judged right? I don't feel judge and you really present with me your master. Right because you embody what the person needs. So I think. Really echo or build on what Christine said as a leader be present. And those are those skills of focus in box, breathing in all those other things to be present with someone incompassion without your mind going because think about it as a leader the amount of things that you have to deal with our unmade as ING you might be dealing with legal issue. Client issue intellectual property issue up. And then this employee comes with the problem. Now, you've got to change what part of your brain. You use be present. And not judge because so much of your mind. And what you got rewarded for being critical finding out problems judging, but with people that doesn't really work so well, and they're not gonna be open because they feel judged so. That is that is a skill that should be mastered. I lot of organizations. Struggle with the balance between risk management and viceroy bold action. And and if you're somebody like me who has a bias for bold action, you need somebody who's a risk manager kind of holding you holding you back from taking on these great ideas that. That are that are going to be that are going to take you and everybody else with you down the rabbit hole. But if you, but if you have an organization, if you are somebody who's bold, and I think that was kind of your question this this caution and fear and doubt and organization being run by risk managers. Then you never take any chances fun. All you're playing defense all the time. I wanna play offense so finding the right balance. And I I've always said the best leadership team is a really strong number twos. Good at risk management while the bosses of is as bias for bold action. But it can also be the other way around as long as to respect each other and work. The issue about being offended is one I'm struggling with. Because I grew up in same culture that we did and one of our of our selection criteria. Is you thick skin? You can't be offended. So we're constantly testing that. We're seeing if we can offend you. And we're going for the throat and we've done it for thirty years. All of a sudden, I kinda start playfully seeing whether somebody how always said I have gotten in trouble. Now, Kate, and I. Kate. And I got the same attitude towards that we spent a week in the mountains. And and so I knew I could I could throw barbs awake and more. There's more coming my way too. But I also I think this is an area where all of us are still trying to find out what the rules are. And and people who are who are in the victim mentality and looking to be offended are really hard to work with. And now there's a law on their side and everything else. So it's is there's no easy answers there. And certainly I don't have them. Absolutely. Just real quick. Yeah. First of all do not use Twitter as a means to put out major leadership communications to the team. Commander in chief figure that out. Goes back to being authentic. So obviously with doubt and uncertainty and organization, there's organization level, doubt and uncertainty, and there's individual level, doubt and uncertainty. You kind of mentioned it when he broke down the Buca elements organization wide, I found that it's imperative to really engage the participation of almost everybody if not everybody in an organization in problem solving in decision making again, sit said in this fast paced world, obviously, no one person can singularly lead organization, nor should they it needs to be everybody. Participating from your most senior people to the newest people to the seemingly smallest roles. Everybody has an organization and driving mission success. But when you give people the ability to connect with the problem solving mechanism mission planning mechanism, then they feel connected in can mitigate fear can mitigate certain doubt because they're allowed to do the research when we're just making decisions up from our ivory tower, and then delivering them out to the team doubt still there because. Well, first of all, why was I not consulted I own this area of the business. And you didn't consult me about this decision. I'm a frontline manager in this manufacturing firm. And you didn't even ask me. You know, what the new system is going to be? But you just chose a new system for us to track time or for project manager, whatever it is. So enlisting everybody's participation their feedback using that feedback to make decisions communicating back. What you heard and what you're going to do to use? That information mitigates doubt mitigates fear from the individual ever fear, fear uncertainty. Going back to purposeful storytelling connected, people to what you're trying to accomplish as an organization being transparent about the good bad and ugly. At critical times transparency gets thrown around a lot. There are certain times where certain amounts of transparency and other times where transparency doesn't necessarily need to be part of the communication strategy. But. It's really good to be able to tell stories through formal and informal mechanisms. So that people can oftentimes in organizations we put oh. Oh, well, I thought everybody knew what was going on mitigating fear and uncertainty because I explained why we're having this obstacle. What we're going to do about it because it was in the newsletter fucking do that really the newsletter. Nobody what's your open rate on the newsletter. By the way, I mentioned that the company wide meeting. Well, how many people really listening during the company wide meeting clearly from before nobody at mine listening type four experience member? So it's using those formal mechanisms but also integrated do the math. You know, if you're if you have major communication touch points like your monthly companywide meeting. Your news out of the goes out every other month, you're only talking about maybe twenty twenty five touch points year for major company. Why communications, but if you integrate and leaders need to take this on as a responsibility put it in your calendar like managed by walking around and use that opportunity to tell a story at the you know in the break room. Hey, Bob, really really embodies our core values because he live by those core values to help us solve this problem that we're having everybody was. Careful about thank you, Bob and tell the story informally so people connect with exhaustion times. Those types of stories don't get disseminated around the organization, and that informal storytelling mechanism is really useful to mitigate fear or what I call change battle fatigue in organization when it's going through a lot of transformation because it helps people continue to start to visualize. What winning looks like why we're having these challenges. What's being done about them who in the organization is really being change of Angeles and taking the lead and oftentimes that can engage people and also helping out and helping mitigate fear and spread the good word naturally organically. Throw my perspective in here. So I think one of the core skills vocal leader will need to develop the ability to take perspectives and then to make new perspectives that are integrative and inclusive. And so we've kind of danced around this idea without using that terminology, but it's a skill that can be trained. And so requires like Jim said it requires presence requires you to be kind of drop in your heart. Listen authentically like receive information about what some ideas are about. How something can get done which is going to be informed by their booth their background of obviousness, and they're upgrading and there whether you're millennium or jen's e or baby boomer everyone sees the world differently. And this is just been proven here in this very panel. We have one question and four extraordinarily different answers from different perspectives. Everybody in our organization is like that. So get understand them in their perspective and their worldview and their developmental stage and get to understand. In your own perspective and your own worldview and your own developmental stage. And then bring those perspectives together and do a soup and have a dialogue about it. And then make a new perspective that is inclusive and better instead of trying to just tell and direct as a like the individual God head of the organization, right? The leader. So all right. Any one more will one more like super burning question of? And then we'll wrap this up. So I have a question about I think Brent had talked about how. You change the structure for then you change the culture. My question has to do with. So you realize Novacor situation as an organization or as an interpreter wherever you are. And you know, where you want to go you have to make changes almost times people get paralyzed in that moment, right before they make the pivot, and so light here examples of how either your own personal examples or organizations how you what went through your mind or how you went through that pivot situation before you actually made it. So right after the oh crap this situation and then the next step. Are there any recurring themes that you've seen as you've been through different Vuko situations, and how you navigated them. Kind of goes back to the philosophy of not running to your death. It's I think about it at a in a combat situation. You know, we all of a sudden we get a little piece of Intel that that that guy's gonna be this location. This time this point tonight. Let's go get them. That's not how it works. You gotta get the Intel. You gotta steal that. Intel into actionable insights, use those actionable insights to create a mission plan contingency plans. The same thing in a Buca environment. We were talking about this in the hallway when my last company we were going through a significant transformation. We've been growing almost too quickly and realize that we were going to break our back and become irrelevant in a very fast paced. It was a digital media marketing company while the growth is great. It was highly competitive industry digital transformation technological advancements were creating even more of voca environment outside of just the growth. And so what we did was you need to take data driven intelligence driven approach to transformation when you realize Buca environmental, you realize that there's some things in the organization that need to be fixed where organizations fail, and according to McKinsey and company about seventy percent of organizations fail or fall short of meeting their change or transformation objectives in large part because they do run to their death. They see all these different things that need to be changed, and they try and change all of them at the same time. So there's all these competing priorities while you still have to do what you still have to run the business, and you're putting all these competing priorities, and all these things that need to be fixed task people doing then they also have their jobs to do. And the things they get measured on doing and rewarded for doing? And oftentimes we put all these new priorities these competing priorities on the team. We also we don't change. The reward mechanisms we don't reprioritize their schedules. And what we need them to do. So venture they get burned out and leave. And then of course, that's why I don't like the philosophy multitasking because you're doing all those things what poorly you will fail. The engine will not continue to drive Yorgos Asian forward. So it's about going in and getting the proper data. Enlisting feedback from the team on what the real priorities are executing those priorities in a timely manner. And then also reprioritising the other things on your team members plates. So that they actually have the time the energy in the engagement to take on these new tasks and challenges well enough to actually succeed in that change effort in an organization, so let the other talk to, but that's kind of a quick synopsis. I'd say if you things going back to being responsive rather than reactive. So anytime I've made a pivot in my life or company, I've also noticed that my intercept tour my inner critic, they tend to act up a lot. So it's it's knowing that that can come up, especially when we're times, we're in uncertainty, so making sure that if there's an external pivot where we're managing a lot that we're not ignoring the internal mindset because that's when the mindset and the self-care becomes even more important. The other thing I learned from multiple pivots is there's a lot. I don't of. No, I don't know. And then there's a lot. I don't know. I don't even know. But there are a lot of people who've been through what I'm about to go through. And they know what I don't know. I don't know. And I have learned that to reach out for help to ask for support people that have done something similar. This is why I think masterminds peers colleagues this kind of group of people is so. So important is not taking on too much on are not thinking we have to figure it out all ourselves because whatever you're doing whatever uncertainty, you're going through whatever pivot you're making someone has done it and has learned a lot. So I like to learn from other people's mistakes as much as I possibly can to avoid making a lot of my own. So that's a great time to be willing to help and support. Thanks of few comments. I I'll I'll channel Greg for a second quote proverbs, Greg. It says without a vision people perish. And so when it's really volatile. So you know, when things are really tough. We talk about micro goals. Focus on the next burpee, focus on the next evolution, whatever. Right. Because if you think about something too far in advance, you'll get overwhelmed you may give up so folks on the micro goal right in front of you at the same time to have this big vision is very motivating it dry. It draws you forward. So you kind of want to do both. So in an organization stamp point, you need to look at a leaders need to look at where are the dynamics where the market trends where where's it competition? What your swot analysis all those things that you're probably aware of and say, well, where is this going to end up, and you gotta make a bet right? You're gonna invest time resources energy. And then you say, okay. This is why we think things are going, and then you draw back to the day to day. So it's kind of like having the three Ps and then coming back to your micro goals. The other thing to remember is most leaders. One is a marathon effect. So if you can imagine people are in a marathon, and there's ten ten thousand people. Well, the first runner might be done with the race before the last person even started. And so that's what leadership is like a lot of times leaders have thought something through for months, and then they roll it out like okay here it is. And they expect people's emotional reaction. To be already done. Why? Because they did it like, yeah. But remember that was four months ago, plus the amplitude and length of most leaders reactions is like this. They don't get super. They don't get super down. And it's pretty short. Some people are like Whoo. And it's like, you know, the amount of change. But you're like, I can't believe they're so scared of change. Well, what do they do for a job? They go to the same place, and they work on an assembly line and do the exact same thing. I would go mental. If I didn't that job I could not. But so that's what makes them good because they like doing the same thing. So understand that their response to change is not your response to change as a leader, you're boom. And don't by the way, you did this six months ago. Now, let them go through their own process. Don't rush it. Volatility is when things change rapidly. And at Brandon times uncertainty is when you doing something that generally is working. But now, you're the the inputs are uncertain urine uncertain about the timing the might of energy to put into something or whether you should shift course complexity is when there's so many, interlocking interweaving components is something that is impossible to understand the second third and fourth order consequences of a decision and big you ity is when there is no clear direction forward, literally is so Paik, you don't know whether to go forward at a retreat or left to right. Every one of these usually happens kind of simultaneously right in a complex or a shock situation that you're talking about it on one of my favorite quotes is doubt is eliminated by action. And what we're really saying? There is like Jim's point pause. But then do some. Something that's going to create a feedback loop don't run toward your death. But do something that's going to create a new feedback which is then going to help you gather the Intel which then you can process then you can activate that loop that we've talked about observe what happened from that action. Real yourself make another micro decision. And then take it in their action. And then do it again. And again, and again, a pre soon you're starting to find your way through the voca, right and things get a little less MB ambiguous and a little less uncertain. That help you guys are awesome. What really really amazing hour. This has been like I've learned a lot listening to my teammates here. Brent bob. Thank you, Christine, gym, guys rock and also, thank you very much for your presentation today. Let's give all these individuals that huge applause. Thank you so much. Bye.

Brent Mark Christine Mike Wallner Chris Fussell Vuko Bob Julie Gillian Brian Thomas Kodak engineer Raytheon risk manager Jim jen
Business Value and Insurance? A Conversation with Thought Leader Zach Finn

Defenders of Business Value

1:04:42 hr | 1 year ago

Business Value and Insurance? A Conversation with Thought Leader Zach Finn

"So when you think of an insurance agent you probably. It doesn't conjure up an exciting kind of guy or or woman and but you need them and you recognize the the versatility of understanding the needs to offset the risk For your personal and your business and so I happened to be looking at Lincoln. And and I run into Zach Finn and I've met him a handful of times over at Butler University and and again I I started following him and all of a sudden I start reading about him talking about business value and losses to the to a business owner and it wasn't just personal losses. It was. How does this affect goodwill I had never heard of a insurance agent talk about that so I reached out to him to get a clearer understanding of why he's different and how he is serving business owners so I hope you enjoy my conversation with Zach Vin? Please welcome. Please welcome welcome. This is another episode of the defenders of business value. Podcast podcast where we talk about. One makes a business volleyball during the tips and tactics to increase your company's value that veteran dealmakers no and now here's your house plant. I'm your host dead mice gland. I teach business owners how to build value in identifying remove risks in their business so that one day they can sell their business maximum value when they want how they want to whom they want on. Today's show I'm I'm really stoked. I exact thin. He's a clinical professor and director of the Debut Risk Management and insurance program over Butler. So Zach Welcome. Thank you happy there. Well I was before we in our pre game chat. I was I was telling you a little bit about you. Know how how you got here. And I told my assistant that I was interviewing and insurance professional. And she's like well. What are you doing that for and I said you know what I don't think you know in this is a different. This is a different guy. So if you don't mind can you Kinda give a little bit about your background and how you got to two Butler and the I mean you're doing different things. So can you talk a little bit about what's going on in Butler in your practice? When it comes to insurance I guess you could say the forefront strong in my family I mean my grandfather even sold. You know you'll debit life insurance back in the day when he was working for us. Factories Indiana My Dad was a life long term carriage and in fact he's probably doing altering benefit woman right now in my mom They're separated but she's a nurse. Case manager does so I picked my career actually not because their careers had spied built enjoy. My parents do Professional respect the work that they do. But it's not that I would enjoy doing you know for me. I actually. I wanted to be a finance major wins. Indiana state has a finance major. Then while I was there Good friend Dan. Matei now reinsurance broker talking about the insurance and risk management program. He talked about the fact that there were only fifteen universities that offer this degree but yet it was a multi trillion dollar industry. And how there was all these job opportunities and I remember thinking I'm a B. Student. That's great I don't want to compete against the ace leans at Harvard some finance and never have a chance when there is no risk management degree at Harvard. There isn't harbor people or or even at the time people worry about the risk of injury insurance. I really enjoyed the material because it was about problem solving it was about. You know putting people's lives back together after bad things happening Business a little bit more than double bent to it and when you have insurance degree you started to get the question of do you want to be an agent? A claims adjuster an underwriter and for meal is Geez. Actually WanNa work. I WANNA be in risk management and so I found my way to Jeff who frankly one of the most brilliant risk manager live is Jeff Hokies the recipe manager of Honda. North America. Absolutely brilliant mind and Jeff was the risk manager of the National Cash Company back in the nineties into jazz in nineteen ninety nine at the National Cash Register Company with Y2k. Going on. And so when you think about some of the things I'm having thinking about Democratic Insurance Act basically can proceed situation in coverage that we'd never covered before might never cover again. Well actually lived already with Y two K. And the thing is all the bad stuff into actually happy now and then was more of a of a false alarm but you know one of the interesting things and I'll part here two minutes you can ask us about working in risk management. Is you become a utility player? Every right I don't turn my renewal. And what my underwriter. Give me my loss. I tell my I lost big. You have to tell me why I'm wrong or I have acclaimed as being adjusted. I don't wait for them to just just and that's true for Palsy. Archaeology to actuaries reinsurance every single position on the team. And so what would you serve and risk management? You'd learn where all the pieces in the insurance industry aren't particularly when he worked for large companies. Where things at the assurance who doesn't understand as you know when you're a hammer everything looks like a nail but when you start to get the size of procter and gamble or Eli Lilly or the. Ncaa you actually have to make your own insurance. Some things just aren't sure but right. If you've got a billion dollar plan New Orleans on a six hundred million dollar flood exposure. There might only be two million dollars insurance on the planet. So you have to start to think more creatively than we're insurance industry used to they like the hand solutions and then just go count the money. There is major actually have to make sure they get implemented and so the other side of the coin industry often misses. How do you take the risk management insurance recommendations it translated into business professionals? You've never heard anything about sharks right. Because they got insurance. Not only is it not agreed. Degree is offered him as universities like it should be but it's also not a classic truecard business professionals so we're living to consequences them all out right now. The avatar of insurance professional is not what what it used to be. The guy that knocked on your door. And I'm I'm selling you some sort of policy that you that you cringe at the thought of getting now. It's an entirely different story where you have empirical data and you're able to communicate you know well not only that but it's that's personal lines right. That's the face of the whole industries. The Personal Linesmen. Forty six percent of all printers commercial lines right so for me. I mean much love and respect on personal lines friends. I actually enjoy all the point. Audits I mean Life Insurance Geek and I'm the Guy who bought his whole life insurance for their college graduation prepaid up and ready to go so you don't get me wrong. I love my personal lines. Friends Richard What is commercial? That's a concussion insurance. That's how they're going to be an NFL when balser coaches here it sued for not falling concussion protocol ensure a pizza which Ronald or Satellite Insurance and all these things that people who've never think that's a prominent shirt us hit right on the head. It's a product that somebody forces me to buy against my will. I get definitely a bunch of money because the state or my wife or somebody said so and then getting valued some terrible happens and so you know who would want to be part of transaction and then and then if you have a claim you don't know insurance then he goods always tell the story like that. Finance Accounting Marketing. You know immediately you got an immediate. You Got myrow is sucks. Peleton happening to me. We never learn what backer smashing was like anything. I hate US example but I love bill. Cosby's comedy and I loved a lot of things that he did your african-americans entertainment and find you. Might have been America's most prolific grapes. And so that's what risk is is great until the day you wake up and you're like Oh my God. Tom Hanks is sick. We're all bounded at home. And you know for hand outs stimulus. And it's really weird way not getting into the right places in the economy and it's all function of there's no risk measure by L. An interesting so because we're we're writing the the playbook as we go right. Well the people in charge. Are you know for someone like me? I like in this way. You know. I'm a trained degris major. The people have plenty more experience than me. Play more education as many people have so and because it. Kinda cry had working in March corporations at supply chain business continuity and understanding I did product recall work with Lloyd's not only supply chains one out but it's unversed logistics so I just see risk in a different way than most people do. And there's a whole generation of people that are coming up. They can do this. I mean you have a situation where the speaker of the House of on national television. He didn't know pandemics weren't included. In business in option policies. And I've got sophomores in Bali University. Who we just literally covered before spring break at an educational risks that exists in the system. It's not like this knowledge is ran new or has not been known. It's just a whole world. Never been on fire before where we we awaken this. You know her gate of risk manager of you had plenty of classes. We've had plenty of marketing issues. They receive these people. Come out of the woodworks. We've never had a chance to look at approximately properly trained British major. Doing what they do and saying. Wow that makes sense. You know so for someone like me. You know I was telling my wife. I think this must have been like the first physicians don't like leeches leading. You're listening to Business economic damage to people are like. You're going to kill people either. They're scared of it. It's like I mean this is just the way you're supposed to deliver snatch with but most people haven't figured that out so that'll be one of the byproducts of this hopefully will learn that you can have a major was thought visit. America right now. You wouldn't be happy will situation right. You'd have Congress will visit. Ruptured claim not sending stimulus to my dad also security out any income. That's any stimulus to the poison. Jam Smarter Company and make more money and peanut butter and Jelly bonuses either in their lives. Dot Love them but they don't need betsy. Moore's my friend who bites and decelerate. Yeah we had We had SPA folks on and a couple of weeks back in and the feedback. Is You know like you said I mean it's getting there's a lot of money going to wear out not into the hands of the people that need it and that's a that's A. That's a problematic thing but it but that's always been a problem right well but I mean you know I i. Identify Governor Holcomb this the beginning of March. But you know I fully believe that we could liberalize the terrorism risk insurance act to pandemics. I believe we could've backdated that. Coverage to include corona virus. I believe we could have regio actively offered anybody declined to four or higher premium and. I think we could've turned on all business interruption. Insurance for every business in America. A big about business rupture transit. What it does pays. Assistance gives them certainty during disaster includes payroll and so we would never even had to lose any of these jobs. Not One of them. All Insurance Strategy was agreed to pay clients through terrorism pandemic risk-insurance revived amended. Terrorism Risk Insurance Act and then work with the government would be backstopped right. I mean we'RE BAILING OUT INDUSTRY. After Industry the banks or taking five percent of the paycheck or extra program like a bunch of Crooks men and then get fees from the biggest clients. I not being American at all and will bear as the insurance industry could have said. Hey We'll pay all these claims through a TREA resources seventy two business restore circa payroll restore certainty to paychecks and you can take all the miners and his social security people. That aren't even a paycheck. All the money that's going to central businesses. That aren't had a paycheck. You all the money that's going to the banks can actually just backstop interest free and just do one bailout for people's actual losses. I mean imagine what would prevent that sanity from getting enacted. Well there's there's two parts of it one is going to be three. One is the lack of insurance knowledge right. So if you don't know anything about insurance agent you're dealing the speaker of the House who just learned that are covered visit option the amount educational that. I need to get you know. Hammer over is frankly too high. And the other part of it is the politics in the muscle memory of bailouts in the this. Is You know hammer and was like a male. So we've done that and then I'll tell you the other part I've yet to speak to forty years old and I've never spoken to an elected member. Congress in my life I got. I got the Democrats Insurance Act through intermediaries to the White House. Mcconnell's numbers of converts. I've I've finally been able to sneak. To General Council member of the small business was very helpful and the cheapest affect Congress wine. We very helpful but to this day or germs degrees twenty years have been served pandemic preparedness experienced. I'm writing stuff that I know. They're reading in. The Washington Times and The Washington Post and I've left messages for my congressmen and senators and I could even get them to pick up the phone and somebody will. It's amazing it's amazing. Is this how government in fact works? I couldn't believe it. So how do you fix it all these people? I don't know I mean you know to me is one of the I mean. I literally had people tell me like you know. Yes we take the economic damages that say allies say doing this with territories insurance act would actually fix it by August will never support it. Because maxine waters which is ironic because. I am a report by the way at moderate one but nevertheless and so it's just crazy because I helped draft opinion-makers insurance act which Democrats lights and I have used regarding shut down and looking at the total cost of risks. That are more came in. The Republicans are fueling. Nobody wants to listen to me because in their camp or the other or maybe they're just too busy talking to the no special interests and had a lot of weird call had folks from Washington that I think are at pastry and or lobbying firms. I think that they're doing the bidding of Congress. I think there's people that are being sent out on their behalf the talk and I'm talking to anybody and everybody about this stuff now hopes they'll get the message but to me. It's just one of those things you talk for ten minutes and keep sending me politicians and keep talking until we get to something that makes sense for sure. Well I had suspenders on ninety snapping them right now. I'm just a simple country insurance adjuster leaving the real world cornfield the right thing because it's the right thing to do but you know what are you GonNa do. Well so the the funny thing is that you know as I was saying. Are you the Avatar of the future for for the insurance professionals? Yeah well yeah I we were. I was actually already on this path before the data. I've been working with some actually some big names in the industry that we actually got former venture capital funding because one of the things that identified in my adventures and we the first run insurance company Butler back. One of the reasons we did that was just show the industry that we could buy. You don't think these students can. Do you know why problems I have with? Insurance degrees is a lot of people. WanNa give me work them. See Basic Right. I got you know. They want them to process certificates of insurance on a captive feasibility. Study and so the only way to get the intrigued understand like now. This is what these kids can do. We actually set up a student run. Insurance Company had the Minister of Finance Bermuda. Pulsar students work was like up there. Same as as good as or better. Some of the professional plans that they had seen and that was about giving students a real life experience but also about shipping industry the wave in the future. Because what's going to happen with insured? Tech is going to become risk. Why would he have technology? That could change whiskey behavior. You really need an intermediary like an insurance company to do that. I mean most insurances because people don't understand the risk won't go comparable retaining so big part of my job is originator. Smucker was bashing finding always not to buy insurance and look at more unique. Alternative refinancing structures. And so you know virus major today looking at Democrats. I know exactly how handle it I would. I would set up what I call the guy that benefits but fire control insurance burger. I've taken owner controlled insurance program for the construction industry where they use that to keep all the subcontractors in line and you know we're getting sued anyway we don't trust you or your insurance so quotas a job with it now. Quarter the DOB without it now by a from us and by the way will be cheaper. Were bigger you can say what you think about it. You WanNa make supply chain WANNA vertically integrate that sucker but at the same time you don't WanNa have no visibility to and people don't understand that with business option you take out one way or like three or four candy jar country. I mean you start taking out one or two plans. You've taken out a lot of things that people don't understand. You can't have a lack of visibility. Your supply chain so what you do is you sell. You sell your suppliers product liability and recalls. He solve all this stuff. You'RE GONNA GET THE BILL FOR ANYWAY. Right. You'RE GONNA pay the bill recall. Thanks you say courtney the strawberries or dog food or whatever it is with your insurance now without. You'RE GONNA buy it from me. It's sickening thousand franchise you by the way Donald Franchisees McDonald's and so technology will now enable other company senior living for decades. And when you get third party risks that you're selling your supply chain. Guess what you can. Do you sell yourself. Billion Dollar Power Pandemic Insurance at twenty one percent tax deductions. Then you start to take that pandemic tower and you could lay it off on reinsurance or go to renaissance into also insurance securities or the painter. I sure exact- passes you can link that up the government. So this is how a risk major like me. He's GonNa think in fact that's the insurance risk if they don't cover head damage in business direction for corona virus there'll be no market for businesses or who in the right mind is ruptured if it doesn't include the one risk that ever shut down what will happen is they'll create that. L. Create a new form of his captains trade association captors of Risk Retention Groups. Many issues net cut off. Its own nose despite its face on. Yeah and the funny thing. One of the things that And just move into business valuation for a second so business. Valuation IS CO is comprised of earnings. Risk an expectation. Two of the three. That's in your Bailiwick. And and that's what prompted me was I saw that you've written an article about about goodwill and and how this company's goodwill evaporated and in this case it was a contamination matter. But can you speak to to how insurance plays in impairing or amplifying business value? Yeah so I mean you know. I don't think I actually love to do. My crew is work on mergers and acquisitions must have thirty or forty due diligence and closed on it doesn't are so different acquisitions. And you know some very familiar with the representation warrants inside of this and you hear talk to like the Cyber Cokes and the FBI. They would tell you that one of the reasons they had a cyber claim where I guess this company had a Chinese national came and stole all their trade secrets China and then and then they didn't want to file anything would give because they're in the middle of solemness the big about that. I mean. That's a very bad fate back with this year but that happened right and so they're not reporting that because they report that they were happening. There's no value to the eligible property in the ADS. That's total violation of reverence. Asia the warranties. Those kind of examples I mean risks are things that you know hiding the scenes. It's kind of that example before about you know bill cosby or near Max or Harvey Weinstein or any of the Bernie madoff any of the things that we thought used to be good and then you find out there was something wrong in their DNA or in the risk and it just came out. We were all at once and and that's basically what we're finding out now. Society was always this way but we had the benefit of you know Walter. Cronkite only had thirty minutes that bang out the losers by so much bad news. You could hear the day Here I mean now. Twenty four seven three sixty five this still and anytime. Anybody doesn't need stupid. We've already heard about it. You know eight ways Sunday so that the risk of loss is much faster and so the awareness. Oh my gosh risk. Israel's response really important and then we can now see example underpass it. You're messing up and got lucky. Now you can mess up not no and then see your neighbor could smack and go awhile. That could happen to be now. Sure we'll win. But when you quantify risk for small business you know and this is one of the biggest challenges that we have is that and it's kind of like we were talking about the stimulus. I mean some of the larger companies that had greater EXA access to two advisers. That could push this thing pushed application process through you know benefited them but the smaller the smaller businesses. That you know they. They don't have that that benefit so where I'm heading with this. You know when you start looking at risk and you know I understand that you know size size matters. As far as business risk goes but as as a risk manager how do you? How do you see businesses? And where do you see the the challenge that they have with risk? I oh great aggregrate story for this actually one of the great things in on the number of this or not whether they are going to digest company my work there as you would actually get the have much with the executive team including timbers and those are two. They're really nice rate guys. Nice to say they could run that company at their last name. Johnson and Richard Smoker in particular. On very interesting guy who vice-chairman Federal Reserve during the great recession. And just a great sense of humor. So I was there I got on the job he asked me said. Hey Zac what's my number one risk and I could tell just talking to a good sense of humor. I wouldn't have done this complex. Ammos like auto. He's hired you paying all this money. Must buy number one Richard. I'm like genie telling thing walls. On which one of your twenty four production silly sixties centers through headquarters that the one hundred point five and a half million dollars revenue? Whatever cool stuff you have at home that I don't know about it most important to you. Isn't it one of the one of the Jelly Plants which bears your name? I said I don't think it is because it's already one hundred percent capacity and so you wanted to listen on the okay that's right. I'm like I bet the most important thing to you by your plan right now because right now. It's the great recession and peanut butter. The cheapest thirteen in store Peter Pans out for the count on a recall. So they're twelve percent market shares up for grab and you're running this planet. One hundred forty percent of capacity Crocker ranted at. Who every molecule peanut butter. You make you can sell. And it's going to cost you this many thousands of dollars per every hour and you can't afford to be down and it doesn't matter whether it's a earthquake or hurricane of Tornado plan of the apes open stampede doesn't matter it also doesn't matter is really matter does it. Really matter what shuts down is what's really important is would twenty four production facilities the most part. Why is it the most important works when you start to look at things like okay? You know when you rose pants on. An industrial scale announce anything. That's out there if you search Lexington and peanut roaster. You'll find fires every night. And it's just on the half you get meals and skins in the roaster in your shooting hot air on it and then you have a roster and so you look at okay. What explosion panels on answer that? The energy of the explosion goes up instead. It helps keep your employees safe and then it becomes a matter of getting replacement kennels on your roasters in your running and so then you got will Geez. These are six minutes to order. And they're flat. Why not stick them under my desk and we'd be running in a day and remember it's how related dollars an hour per hour starting to save yourself plant. It's really about losing this Loeser. And getting replacement panel sever their means that we get up and running in forty eight hours for six weeks. I have yet to even say why they're now about that. We just addressed a major issue for that plant and they can be for any client and we talked about whether a cyber elephants or whatever it was. And that's that's the problem for surgery now. Everybody gets it backwards. I even on Originating Committee for a couple of words shirts. Treat even still Sheri- people every names a hammer. Everything's a nail. Do WanNa talk about risk management. They want to sit in a room and just start long-distant once that recycler pandemic and it is probably a cyber obvious and probably workplace violence or all the things that you're saying but the real issue is where what's the value youth understand like not every risk hunches the same. Some risk will launch with financial severity risk of reputational severity Punch with life safety severity. Some Risk Punch everything all the time all at once and they're not all the same. It's like the corona virus right right. Now we're trying. To mitigate the tally short of corona virus that are growing at a rate of two or three times are not right propagation. Well if you imagine that every every person laid off has a fractional anonymous calories associated with suicide substance abuse domestic violence works rating job loss rate of forty to fifty times the rate were slowing the virus. And so you know. Play this game with your kids. Hey do you want a million dollars or do you want a penny doubled every day for three days because right now you? Detroit rises a million dollars. Can you give us all the mortality from job losses? Pennies bumblers pennies for thirty days. And you got a problem on your hands. And so that's I think we're probably one or two job reports away from discovering that we created a much bigger problem than we thought. And and that's the problem with all this. You have to start looking at risk. The Way I'm looking at it and get away from the causes. I mean that's what we get jams. Oh where have all shut down? It feels like nine eleven but we can't use tree doesn't say pandemic okay. We'll sit and we'll create a pandemic risk insurance act. That will be shut down next time. Because we've been cyber hackers and then we'll sit around. Shutdown will create a cyber risk. Why do we have to do that? Why can't we just have one backstop for any day until like nine eleven to worship down? Here's why does it really matters? You really need to sit here not paying people because it's Terry's pandemic instead of terrorism. Why can't we just say we've got a backstop with two nightmares in it? Work money covering four separate nightmares. And let's just oh we don't have more than to any given time. I mean that's that's how you start portfolio these risks. And we'll get you know right now. We don't terrorism coverage maybe Anna. There's terrorism risk here and so if you trade a separate pandemic risk insurance act which are going to need. In order to offer eruption the future to non essential businesses you may have more affordable by including terrorism now every business in America will by terrorism coverage in order to get pandemic coverage. And I would argue that. You're somebody's buying tree. And now you can get the revised new and improved trio pandemics for less than what Japan now because every business from CD shining sea will be kicking in for terrorism to get pandemic coverage if you handle the risk in that kind of the way you starting to get away from that silo thinking and you know so this is all stuff that is the future is being risk. Management is but this has been going on in the fortune five hundred since probably the ninety S. It's just it's just what we need to do. Is We need to take the kind of things that I was doing. Jeff Hawke in Nineteen Ninety nine and we need to make that available to the businesses on Main Street now. So what is the terrorism risk insurance act so after nine eleven in one of the things? I like to tell my students. Mrs Occasional Wall Street likes act like they move pieces on the Chessboard Insurance. We decided the chessboard. He wanted to be open to it so I would actually true fact I was buying twenty million dollars with aviation shirts on nine eleven. We had a September fifteenth. Burn old eight and had the on my desk at eight. Am Six five thousand dollars. I got a call to Lebanon at quotes were sitting. We're going to reassure later today if there is a later today and by the way Zach at your planes in the air all aviation charts cancelled at the end of this sense of wherever they land whichever citizens to buy cheese all construction. All Air traffic stopped on nine eleven. Now because w Bush now because Osama bin Laden may rotten hill But because of the insurance industry saying there will be no charts today and so they shut it all and the only way to get it back turned on again was the term insurance reinsurance as you said at the time was yet we've created cover terrorism but we never thought it would be like this and how can we possibly put up limits for risk for everybody's having a loss at the same. There's no scenario where you're nice house could be on fire tonight. See reason shortening. What we're both could be stuck for pandemic. I was curious from the standpoint of as you are examining the risk associated with that so number one I didn't realize insurance companies could just say you were done as soon as the plane lands or crashes were done at the start line the coverage so for aviation in that section. It's a few policies were hijacking coverage but that's one of the provisions under war hijacking coverage in aviation is that there is an active war high naked. They would actually cover any losses. That happened while I was still here. But they want that plane on the balanced. So yeah it's like. Oh so I'm a small business owner and I I'm just now getting versed in insurance. I mean how where do I look? I mean I I may have a policy and I. I have no idea if I have Business interruption insurance. Well you know I would recommend you work with a great independence you know. Somebody like veteran. Appel NJ insurance shepherded treasury. Abc Your Own Agency. I mean again there are there are a number of different folks out there and they instant linked to help you and it depends on what your needs are fine. If you're at certain type of respite Campbell Gregory impelled knows a lot of higher education universities and so there are insurance broker at the same time to the fine folks that have insurance do most of the coal mines in America and so they're they're actually experts coalmine or something. That was a small business owner. That had you know college voter. You know you'd be talking. Mj Insurance or trucking and logistics. Open as very good at Again going back to Greg Appel. They've done a lot of work with the city. The Capital Krugman. Or and so when you go to independent agent or broker you're GonNa have some someone that has my background. I mean they were more of them are hiring from Butler and other university. So you're what you're seeing is. The industry gradually shift. Why don't WanNa make it sound like if you don't have my background your professional that's natural. I met some of the greatest insurance about their have philosophy reasons. You Grease engineers you know other experiences but what you're finding is. Is You know when you can only replace every baby boomer with half a Gen xer and demographically speaking. There's just not enough to fill all those roles and then you can't even get people that have degrees what you do at created a huge demand for those five thousand show insurance backwards every year. And so that's what we're seeing a lot of the big firms like Marsh Aon Willis Wilson Already on now. They've been doing this for a lot years. They may go one after. This degree recipients talent. They typically insulted more with the larger fortune. Five hundred four hundred thousand that need more office shelf solutions than what an everyday agency was. You don't for you but if you're and everything Bay who's your small business. I'm taking my family's you you know you're going to work at my house. You'RE GONNA be great with independent charts aches and what you're GonNa WanNa do is sit down with you every year and you call a gap. We should do this with with sin richer sponsor and the leadership team in soccer. Sit Down and say look. Here's all the insurance you have. Here's all the deductibles. Yeah here's all the limits you have and here's why he told me you wanted them. And here's why recommended what? I recommend it all breezes so what we WANNA do this year or not because this is the last year there's a recall the competitor major pandemic law. So you know. The company or any company are going to vary based on. What's going on at the moment? So it's important that you know what might be the? Right Insurance Program for your company. Today could different if your copy. The're smaller different. It's a time of year. Could be different something going on in and so if you look at it every year then you at least know like okay. I've signed off on any gaps and that's the big one is the have your agent or broker. Sit Down with you. Your leadership team out of O'hare to stay well and then make insurance. Well maybe won't after this war Susan backstop but I was looking at it back in two thousand. I mean you have to ask yourself if you're if you're a company that didn't just found out that there was charts. Where was your broker for? And the fault you have to look at the licensing stance. We even train agents on pandemic Exclusions insurance issue to even spend any money on advertising to explain that their exclusions policies. When you start to look at all these uninsured business in Russian claims number one allow these policies could actually cover this loss. Because they're out well written or they're older antiquated But the other side of this is that doctrine a reasonable expectation by insurance to be stuck in all these endorsements I say snuck in intentionally right away after murders and SARS and then they spend exactly no earner money we make sure in the state licensing were updated back may not once dime on advertising. It's all slow to an ice shows nonsense though when you watch a financial services commercial they say investors bank. We miss loss was the last time you ever heard insurance. Commercial has said Hey sees including increase Bush's second halls the fact that means that they can't sit here and say well gee small business you should know. You're doing all right so the so the takeaways. They're revisit your policies in a hurry. When church is the only product to buy out a bad product. You never know you drive up you drive off the lot. You're going to be mad five minutes to get on the road. You bought a terrorist unless you've never had a Scratchy you would never know. And you're the one who died in Houston evernote. And so it's the only product where you're buying it basically on a complete lack of faith and if you don't spend any time learning the contractor shooting someone like me who knows the contract you can then convert it into lacey. I understand wants to repulse love. Why do but that doesn't mean you can't agent fifteen or twenty minutes to get the gist of it and we. It's funny. We carry errors and omissions insurance and you know our deductible went from ten grand to twenty five grand and I said why did that happen and I mean there's there's not a that's just the way it is and I'm sitting here going on the hill. Is that possible? I mean seriously and and I never got much of a much of an answer and it's full limit losses. Actually I mean it. It's combination of things right. 'cause we markets all interconnected. So they don't make a lot of their money through through underwriting it's actually do investments right so they'll collect a dollar premium pay off the dollar to and claims but they'll get eighteen cents in investments and so the market's really bad. Then you're going to see your rates. Go Up if there's been claims for Arizona emissions across the industry that you're in even if you're not the culprit right. I mean think about like Elliott Vegas shooting I use this example win resort had hit metal detects in metal detectors that you walk in and win resort with a suitcase full of guns. You're going to have a conversation with offer very quickly. That's not something that existed in the MGM Grand and so the question is is what's the duty and what are the insurance implications going forward if you you know you have that or you. Don't yeah well like I said it continues to amaze me and but but it sounds like from communicating with your visiting with you that You know there are alternatives. Now one of the things I did follow up with with you is where do you find the specializations for like you were saying? Mj does great work in coal. Mines how do you? How do you find the guy that does great in accounting firms? A healthcare is oh. I would think that you'd want to reach out to some of the Great Trade Association. So you know the the big I in an insurance agent. Deanna like you'd up. He's a great guy. You know you go to a big I convention or that or meeting. Say Hey it's good that Anita frankly that's how great our shirts and she is. I bet if you call comic Nabet Jane. You asked him about something. That was more special so you would mention that should be competent at the talks about why he thinks he has valued at to match that. But he would tell you that you might want to look at too Because that's the kind of folks we are right. We just want everybody to get what's best for them. And so I think part of it's asking doing your diligence and the other thing to remember is most people aren't specialized enough to need an industry expert person and you only need like you did a cold person. Inter fraternity person or a explosives. Personnel are looking person knows you know. Pretty High Risk Industries Girgis regular. You know manufacturing or contractor. You may not mean. I need some great industry specialization. Here so what are the policies that are needed by business owners and what are the most overlooked provisions that somebody needs to spend some time on? I would say you know what it comes down to. What insurance you should have. There's much required by long. What's required by contract? So most businesses are going to have auto driving. They're going to have workers COMP please You're going to have general liability because you can't really sell anywhere without it so for example. Walmart's GONNA WANNA see a million of commercial insurance. Maybe a five million dollar umbrella so a lot of businesses insurance programs into being dictated by their contract since I was in his story with the Business Journal what we looked at the insurance program for the Capital Improvement Board and we made some recommendations of how they might have proved that because what they were doing is they were buying insurance based strictly on what was part of the cadre contracts are between five hundred million and the answer is no you. I need more depending on. What your actual your position it. So that's a big part of it. It starts to get into you know crime. And He's other specialized coverages business eruptions. Business owners will buy property insurance. And when when you buy property insurance cover your building and personal property. It's important that you spend the money for that business interruption. The extra sports car started to get under the hood of a property policy. We actually have to pick what you want the occupancy to cover you against you could take kind of a basic parallel approach. I just give me the big things. Ride the lightning in the fire. Kind of normal stuff that's going to go long You can sue. Data alone is doing some collapse or fungus. Nestlings other cuts barrels. And then you can get. What's kind of the Cadillac? Property Insurance? Is that always palsy? An incoming all risks except once exclusive. And that's really your broadest coverage form so that when you got business or option now you're covered business ruptured against anything unless it's excluded and then you want to start to add in things your policy like civil authority or Ingress Egress. The civil authority would be right now. You can't run your bid you're not essential business. You can't run your business under of civil or the problem is that's not insured is because the root causal civil forties pandemic if there were some sort of like say there was a major fire in the air quality moves bad. We all have to stay in because there was a yoke smog in the air from a third a fire. And you were shut down because of civil authority you pay you pay right now because because you're shut down the ultimate reason for the civil authority shutdown was a fire and in this instance Senate and so it's important to have that business deduction it's important to have that civil authority that ingress egress meaning y clans. Fine but the bridges washed out. I can't get there and then the question becomes and that's the big one is what do we do with this pandemic exposure because to the extent there wasn't before they're really won't be ain't going forward and you can't. You can't insure something that could have every single policy or having to claim it. You know we knew. This was a Spanish flu hundred year event. It'd be no big deal. You'd set aside the present value of all this nonsense over a hundred years and you'll be fine museum as we could be shut down each winner for the next two years and then the not again for two hundred ninety seven years and still be a one hundred year that and so in order to be able to price a premium you after you know the severity and the probability we'll know the severity activist by. We'll know how bad this was. The good the bad associations wall that will come out wash. The problem is is. We'll never know the problem when the Avenue again at this we already versus a very well run universe and our actual losses from Roman border like six million bucks are potential losses if one in ten calls US. Oh come back because job loss at forty million dollars by ARC recovery under the characters to sixty bucks that's it and so and we're well run universities to think about every university in America right now in that same position. If this Kerala shutdown happened a month earlier we probably bank if we could shut down again next year will be bankrupt. Most businesses in America will be bankrupt. Shut down again. Next year I mean the one takeaway from misses me can never do this again. Ever would you must build the resiliency to never shut down like this again and hard. That may be if you're a small business and you can't get big insurance. Maybe you need this seasonally. Build your during the summer cold and flu season as you were talking about the university. I mean what what are like in the cases that required a pivot you know. I know that there's a lot of conversation going on about you. Know why do I need to come to Butler? Or purdue or whatever I can do this online. And why would I pay that kind of tuition if you're able to deliver the service to me? You know effortlessly effortlessly but in a in a manner that I'm I'm still getting the benefit. I would argue that. You're right but in part in universities do have to pivot and our former. Dina's these native really going to be the president about the university or wish him all the best next chapter And that's the reason why he's new president because he has such a great leader and one of the things that need standard will tell you. Is that universities for thousand years when creators and stewards and you paid them premium to get access to the castle and get that knowledge. We'll guess what knowledge of the diamond does and so we actually don't need as many research. Great Universities trying out new knowledge is used to guess what we need need arbiters of Knowledge. What is good knowledge versus now? How do you use the knowledge that you use so you know you could? You could read about Animal Mortality Insurance in a book or you can come to Butler. We're actually underwriting. Dogs building gave a we shall of our student run businesses for commercial general liability or sophomores run businesses and we provide them with C. Joe Exposure. They got hit with the pandemic and they were all shut down. They couldn't sell because they were stuck at home. I stood up. Our entire insurance company is students and we stepped in and backstop their salesforce. We helped them convert to a complete online sales by form of the span of a week into southern inventory to selling it all out and help to save that program and we didn't even passing. We'll card that's why they try to lead. We live our values. Your Butler Scherzer's religious values work there when I needed at we stood up for American. Throw your health is structured damn client and you're not going to get that book. Yeah no you're right and in the future right. There will be universities. That don't they can adapt to that guy but they'll be the ones that real and what we'll find is more cases like Butler that you and I and I'm I'm guilty of the same thing where you know there are. There are businesses. That shouldn't survive the pandemic and his and his terrible as it is and the effect a on the those particular families. At least you're you've stopped going into debt to keep it alive. You know what I mean so so yeah so if you're if you have two pit and I I mean I think you know you're seeing a lot of innovation coming out and that's the blessing of this thing or the silver lining. Is that a lot of. There's a lot of emerging technology ways models and things like that that are that are really good for the country. It's just unfortunately that there's GonNa be some collateral damage in order to get there. Well Probably University did I. I'll I'll tell anybody that you're saying all right. Clinical professors a fancy way of saying thank. Get tenure but actually. I don't believe personally in ten. I believe a good job. Tenure in one of the things that you know and there was probably a time we play. She still lives movement understand that we want to be able to make the statement but one thing that prevents university for that. You know there are programs now that maybe aren't as relevant. They used to be but the others have earned their tenure named and so they're here for life or until they retire and so when you're dishing were like really into normal circuits might cut this program. If you're a business we are hand cut tight and so you know. Part of universities do the cells and other part of that. Is You want to throw out the baby with the bad water. Baffler the good parts of us because there. Yeah but the but again. I think it's forcing everyone to look. Relook it at their business models and makes a lot of really. I'm so puzzled by this. Actually I heard a CEO of big insurance WNYC's places too much marble much Mahogany for their own good and usually like. Oh you know I was really against a teleworking and I guess I was wrong. We're runnin and everybody's doing it and I just you know you talk to people about the future of business travel I mean. I don't think that I think that a lot of things are going to be a lot. Different celebrity culture as a lot of things are going to be different from his experience. Some of the good die right refiner. Lemonade this I think a lot of things are really going to be rethought and change. I mean I I mean we're we're we're a belly to belly firm and I dragged a bunch of fifty sixty year olds into the virtual selling world. You know where we're doing zoom calls and we're we're not missing a beat. I mean we. We'VE GOT A. We've got some lending challenges that we're going to have to attack here soon but but generally speaking I mean we're still making our pitches. We're still doing our thing but but it forced us you know. It forced us to do that. And that that's a good thing for from where I'm sitting. Yeah all right. So you mentioned One of my questions was how often you should be. Auditing your policy you. I think you said every year. You should do a gap analysis right. I so now now some a loaded question so you have your crystal ball out. So what does this? What does this thing look like year year? One year? Two out of this well I think it depends on what the Congress in the insurance industry does one of the reasons why I really want the insurance industry and look at finding we have to find a way back to the future to turn on pandemic insurance in the past this time I never asked to happen and the insures retreat will work for doing that by the way litigation about site. You're already seen it but you're gonNA see massive covers litigation about you know the exclusions under Eyeso- virus excluded are pretty sound. I think it silences damage. I once at fifteen million dollars inventory settled out total loss 'cause Agreed dirty was damaged under the arm. L. Or so you start to talk about you know Tories Feeder. Shut down to thirty crowbars about a property damage claim. I would argue creamy. And and then you start to look at you know somebody smaller insurance that haven't adopted the ice. Oh endorphin I'm here to tell you anybody who has visited after that does not have the eyeso- virus or bacterium squeeze indefinitely as coverage. I'll tell you how you know. Why because they created endorsement if they thought the policy was sitting great before in the exclusions were so great before they wouldn't have gone into created an ISO viruses and bacteria excluding. So if you're all he doesn't have that you've got the rights as far as I'm concerned and so there's a lot of insurance frickley small ones. That haven't done that so what you're seeing is. It's not fun but it's interesting to watch. I should say the trial lawyers are going to pick off the small insurance companies. I seven precedents there. They're going to do. They're going to find all the sleepy little insurance companies in mutual down. Simba to that never obeyed their policy forms of didn't have the right exclusions on there and they're gonNA get all invalidated court and then they're gonNA keep moving their soul up the chain until they either one industry right where they want them or to actually gingrich cushions and things thrown out of court and then they'll have those doctrine reasonable expectations initially do not educate people exclusions. And then there's going to be litigation with agents and brokers you know again if you're a mid agent I don't think you have any exposure the licensing system. I don't think did enough to train you to be able to advise your client properly the way I was getting advice in two thousand ten. But if you're an excess and surplus lines agent of your someone who deals with specialty rest in your specialty boat or with more training and you're a company like you know Major Sports Entertainment Company that should know about these things than you weren't advise there could be closer beginner class. I mean that's about risk manager. You run into the fortune. Five hundred people talk like me some do but not a lot. I mean not as many as they should because the market for insurance assault threw out of every four years if the rates are kind. You don't have any claim you sound prices insurance your boss in your agents twice insurance. Is you think it's all working until one day you wake up? In the Endeavour you go allow that businesses across the street knew how much they were. GonNa lose it. There's mcdonagh. We'd never get any. They Albert's or stuck over a barrel so all that litigation were just be ruinous to the economy to the legal system. I just can't believe that the insurance industry wanted to undertake all that litigation so I think that they would be really smart and it'd be really funny. Frankly Donald Trump voters have taken away from there and he put them the bus advertising right. I saw that finds a way to do an end run around. We're going to get a cover this you know. Maybe not as much like the there's no litigation in so you know the problem is. I think that's the that happen. I just don't think the Congress Nimble enough and when you look at with philosophy congresses the Tortoise the Corona viruses the hair and economic minister auction wrist is the money and they just can't bail out people fast enough anything about it into dollars under cares act. We have a billion dollars in losses would elicit we ended up making money or not giving that to win since ninety dollars back all what he'd been deployed inefficiently and so I just don't see Congress. Changing decades of bailout precedents in doing something completely new and novel recommended by. Insurance pressuring the end. I wish they would but it doesn't see what that's going to be. Hey I'm trying to can't do rhames industry groups and risk managers chew stats and trying to get to these congress host directly and so we'll see what happens the longer they wait the more right. I get right well. I'll tell you the the funny Mark Mark Cuban that came out and I thought it was a really good idea. You know you just you just backstopped the overdraft you you write your checks and and that will be that will be where the stimulus came from so now now you were a hundred percent certain where the money was going going to and that was really interesting and novel way to approach. That's the problem here. Beat uncertain right now. I mean risk is like Aaron a balloon right Losses Carson losses. It's not like we stick someone with the bill or someone else is going to change the billable built. It's an in question is how do you push the air in the balloon? Zeal pop right now. All the heirs weighing down every business in America in the country and people after bashing where they're uncertain the assume the adds three times is is bad and they forget the good part part of America. Where all the Clark? Kent's Wimbledon their shirts in their SS or out. They go and do the Superman. Stop whatever it is that happens every time. That's what you love about American every forgets about it so happens. So why redocking irrational butlers cutting uncut because at started me back into the system. This is usually like in his way. You pay for it by by Stephanie. So security could you find a single American if you were a year from retirement. It's at hey you know what if your your retirement you got one more month. Two years from retirement. Be Two hundred mobile backstop years to where everybody's working extra gear will this? It's a vacation now America. You Know You you always twenty twenty to could work with your old enough to your future self. Pity your vacation where we're young enough to enjoy the whole mood of the country which owns the goal for being grounded under a quarantine screwing around again a three-year early retirement. They basis worth sixty. Six would work that way so switching gears to the sale of insurance agencies and I I I meant to briefly a little bit about it but I mean we're seeing a lot of baby boomer business owner insurance agents that have to do something with their agencies. What's what's the market now. For for for independent agencies to to sell good. Or bad it depends. Depends like anything talent usually missing. Cabral's why usually an agent is forced to sell to somebody who don't want to sell you know at least that's been my experience. Weinstein's most independent eight minutes spent a lifetime building something and it's it's really special to have that book of business and you take a family member or someone where we'd ten whatever they teach me and they just have a hard time finding the right person right. It's our heart. Thinks a generational mentality with all respect the baby console revision service. And and if I don't have all it's all in the united valuable to that but there's also you know how am I gonNa find somebody who could possibly do everything I do. And and and that's really hard rights find that person and so I think for if you're an agent or broker that's not being forced to sell you have time. Now's the time to really invest in succession when they get perpetuation planning ended. You things like you know you've gotTa and you've got a family member that may be wants to teach the agency send into an undergraduate program like Butler Indiana state or no the online master's brisket this that we're doing now and start to prepare someone to take over that next generation. Because what will happen if you don't. You'll get forced to. I am bound bound stock. I make a fortune on it because that's one of your options sell the background. Or there's a Chapman I can remember the name of it. But there's a group out of Columbus Ohio that agents basically form together. My my last question is if you had one piece of advice you could give. That would have the biggest impact on a small business. What would it be all the biggest advice that I have to get on a small business? Jeez honestly situation specific. I think it's helped lobby pandemic risk insurance at. Um You know now whether whether Congress does going backwards for Corona virus that's a whole nother thing at something very new and novel and You. Can you forgive the call this you consider it but when you think about the world going forward how could you run a cruise line without pandemic businesses auction insurance? Sure how could you finance those big boats if you don't if you're GONNA be cruising from one year to the next? Or how could you run Gen con expo or any apples you know? Lot of professional associations live and die by their annual meeting today maybe associations that don't come out of this in the next negative Indianapolis and our economy and who lost twenty five million dollars. I think it was from the NCAA and so. How do we have as vibrant community and opposes? We used to have if we have no certainty around being able to have non essential business. So how do I do that? Where where do I go to to do the writer? You write your congressman and your senators say. Hey there's this kind of nutty professor of Butler University doesn't have any financial interest in him and his students. I'll come up with an idea that we think might help. Why business to have surgery in the future around endemic corruption insurance? And you know. Would you please stop talking to the lobbyists in the special interest in this regular single? How Salter you're right? That and what's great. Is this idea was actually a came from students. It's really really so that. The the framework thousand seventy nine four students. Nick Fox just Harada aired Bundy and map halzack. And they're all very six. Were you on fact Knicks at Mar. She hoped on March to support indebted. Belsen case two thousand seventeen of pay pal and they envisioned Bimbo where we were on a black swan down for months on end because cyber which actually be thinking about it could happen to in fact. Rv worse right. Imagine how much society would be falling apart right now. We never tire kids Enjoy exotic and so you know they envisioned right okay. The only way pay out that live in a world where that could happen so I got a call for Indianapolis Business Journal the NCAA WAS GONNA cancel. Were everybody else. And he asked me what we're going to be and you know you'll find out whether or not but let's put it this way. The risk manager is a former mentally. Advise the math on that one. But when you start to look at all the insularity to other businesses I mean this is GonNa be a nightmare and the next day. You get mental from dangle because what happens when we'RE GONNA LOSE. Maybe forty dollars because construction hiring spending chairman visist by construction heart so. I thought like we have stop and then I and then I came up with his thought I came up with the insurance act there when I had a few minutes to think about. I thought well damn these students arrive. And so let's bring them into the mix and now you're starting to see some of the media and and papers come out you know. I'm just turning their homework. That's what so is is it in the form of a white paper. Yeah so on I leave. It was on Martinez in risk-insurance magazine. I I basically published the memo sent a memo to Governor Eric hold on some around the twelfth month again every day. Marksville like two years but basically the month by sentimental Eric Open and I said Look. This is business. Eruption has been through. This economy like contagious. And we're basically ended up between ten million dollars base. That number. The everything is going to happen. It's happened saint in music. You turn on pandemic risk insurance now. None of this has to happen and by the way. If you don't WanNa do it now you're GonNa have to do for the next pandemic gotten this happens again. Butler thanks. How many do you know that can afford to be shut down next year or two or three months of me and he started coming saying out for eighteen months? Sure be dogs before we're shut down for eighteen months. I'll tell you that right now because they don't understand like when you're not running fueled plans to create catalysts and byproducts to go into other critical products that aren't being made because there's calcium advise the food system is destabilize down and so there's always unintended consequences wrestling and no one's going to know until. I'm is that open to the public or or do you know and so you can go to risk and insurance magazine and you can search for my name or the Pandemic Risk Insurance Act and not only will that included that were done here. I'll send you a link to the he says But not only doesn't include my original call to arms and kind of what? I thought was going to happen. You can basically read and see okay. How right was this guy? Is he about what he says? It's going to happen next. And then you can find a copy of traffic station. Well I'll put I'll put a link to it in in the show notes. So so what's the best way to connect with you? I'm assuming Lincoln. Yeah you'd Academy Pretty Active on linked. Then you can also reach out to the University said. Tim Brock Arcadia liaison again. I'm on the Butler website. You can find you record. It'll let me out much. Well I'll tell you one one of the things you do not disappoint on lengthen. I I have enjoyed following following you in the and the comments and the diplomacy and at times the the nuclear options that you've given I really. I actually at one of the questions that you asked me that I really liked that. Umass me had I saw my role and an as a professor. I still certain level of responsibility. I guess they're certain privileges that are afforded to me as professor both in my schedule in my time but also my academic freedom and the way that I'm a lot thinking approach issues and so I you know when this happens or even just in general. I think about my grandma at a a better golf handicap tiger woods in one state golf in nineteen forty one. And you know where this is going to college you went to the you went to war. He worked in the US accurate fights when he started. He knows how to serve In my family and I think about you know as someone who works with College Students. All Day Long. I don't WANNA be lost too many idols. Right we lost bill cosby. We lost some of our great idol. Be Last Toby Bryant. This year an accident. I mean it seems like every euro we have we lose for one reason or another half. Assume where they do something. It's Never WanNa be that guy. I want to be someone who tries to be better today than I was in yesterday and better tomorrow than it was today. Just try live my values and try and if he you know I function in my family early on some things that happened of course I had an accident where almost I and so I didn't really started to have this kind of career. Life ended up doing a lot of really cool things in my eating dinner with owners of MLB teams the broken bread jams. Smucker's table. I worked on a Hurricane Katrina claiming outbreak domestic partner benefits to accompany. You know two thousand five in Rural Indiana and so I had just so many amazing adventures. I've been able to have a real American dream ways. Bob Nation now. How certain Gordon standing to be able to share with everyone else right? I'm very much. Train comes every writes. Maybe a force for good unlinked any of you ever see me on there and see something that actually gives me trouble too. So I'm trying to the right and they got to not offend anybody but I do obligation go challenging right now. Be Somebody saying look. We appreciate Social Tim. Probably they still be the right thing to do. But there will be a point where we will cause more deaths from it and we are getting back. And that's it very not comfortable popular but I feel like if I don't speak out. I don't remember Bill Sleep at night. If things that I think will happen will happen and I would love to be wrong but I feel an obligation to make sure that I'm doing my art that we get that out. Well one of the one of the great things about you is just that that that it's thoughtful conversation you I mean you may disagree but at your your rebuttals or your position is is well thought out. It's not it's not like you know. Screw you just because you're a Democrat kind of thing I actually. I have a certain certain codes. I live by one of the things I think is very important. I think we've lost it in this society. I believe in my heart. If I disagree with someone was there a racist or a Nazi? Those don't get past but anybody else if I disagree with you. I will give you the courtesy and respect that Seymour. Your because everybody approaches life from a different set of perspectives different set of values. And I think that having rigid political beliefs are I neri thinking is just not the way to what I believe about. The world is completely different during four and after endemic. Yeah but at the same time. It's you know it is. I think we're in a in a world where individual folks you can can be heroes. You know someone that that speaks for the guy that doesn't have the voice and you can push a white paper out and all of a sudden it finds its way to Washington because there was somebody that knew somebody that said you know what you need to take a peek at this. That's what what you can never get America. I mean that's that's where I said I don't like to be called here but there's lots of people just like I did was someone else afforded. But you're exactly right. I mean that always happens. There's always individual Americans you will not have it and you're not going to take down their shirt openness superman and that's my son's Dave Clark just for that reason by the way nice well I mean. That's that's the beauty of of what's going on because I think a lot of you know although there's pain in there's uncertainty in and all that accompanies the corona virus. There are some really good things that are coming out of it and that. That's the blessing I've seen. Most people come together most people in the real world. I would love to see you know I would love to see. Actually you know I wanNA think I heard trump close. You have been in the same room together for thank you know. I've been stuck at home for all these months. Shot that dinner together on national. Tv Fred's right as a matter. Who tweeted what. Who Or. Who appears you anymore? Just go right to be the world's great reset button and let's not complain about anything that happens to be solution. It sweet rated for the name. Amen to them. Well Look I. I've taken way too much time Far More than and you've been so generous with it so you know what thank you. Thank you so much for for taking the time and being a defender of business value. I mean businesses economy businesses the security family and I enjoy it in this time of challenge. If there's anything I can do. I'm here back. I'll be your all summer. So did anybody needs anything. Reach out let us know all right. Will you stay well? I appreciate your time. This was another episode of the defenders of business value podcast for more episodes packed with strategies to increase the value of Your Business Defenders Business Value Dot com for show notes transcripts in three tools to start you on your journey. Subscribe now so you don't miss any future episodes.

America Butler risk manager Congress Jeff Hawke business owner US Indiana bill cosby clinical professor WanNa Harvard
Beverly Carter

Taking a Leap

25:56 min | 2 years ago

Beverly Carter

"Hi, everyone. This is year life coach Debra Brown. Welcoming you to taking a leak or guest today is Beverly Carter. Beverly Carter a retired elementary school teacher and retired nurse is currently a certified medical case manager start to buy legal nurse consultant and certified healthcare risk manager. She's the pro baller of fortune one disease. I grandmother to eight and a great grandmother to and spend quality time in her floor and vegetable gardens reaping fresh organic edible edibles Biblis works out at the gym attend seniors meetings and participates in choir. Recitals she takes a keen interest in writing daily journals on just about any topic of interest spiritual or otherwise, she has a deep passion for helping abused women who are becoming the marginalized of society and strongly feels that domestic violence awareness should be placed on the forefront of humanity. Where people should be three two. Live with those any type of abuse. Welcome to the show. Beverley how're you Frank? You there you are welcome. The Beverly the first question I have for every guest is what has been your biggest leap in life. When you look back at your life. When did you take that big step? I would say one of my biggest stars the biggest bleep in life would be. When I decided to move here to live and to own a home to buy a house. So the the leap was what's coming to the country or remind or buying a home to own a property, and what made that the for you. What made it the really cause? Simply because it's. It's it demands. So much responsibility of financially physically emotionally. The minds. She supplying. Like, I said being responsible, and it takes years of your life to maintain this responsibility. So I care me it a big leap. Was it a smooth experience for you? Because you know, there can be drama at times when you're buying a home was your experience. The experience was smarter as lease mold, but buying the home is not the main issue. The main issue is maintaining the home. Yeah. Comes in. Yeah. You can't call it a landlord for every little thing anymore. It's your problem. Exactly. Exactly. That's what makes it such a big leap because they you're entering into an agreement which you have to stand by as long as you have that property. Easily easily if you have paid off the mortgage is still demand, Shane tenants. And it can be challenging. But then we are live to face challenges and face it knowing that it can be done. Okay, so badly. You know, the reason you're on this show. I love your passion for helping women who are going through the mystic balance. And you speak about it. This is your platform. So I wanted to delve into that a little more with you. And really get first of all where this passion comes room for you. I woman. I have experienced domestic violence. I would say that my experience started. Oh. With this subject. Not being labeled. 'cause you know, like everything in life, courage, a labor and really labeled you're able to determine the factors that these labor carry. This. This didn't carry labor for me. I couldn't I know something was wrong. But of course, I could not forget neater to say these otherwise would describe this behavior. And so it was like taking for granted that it was okay, or I should accept it not realizing that this was very very serious problems. So you thought that go what was happening with you? Your experience was not feeling good to you you thought because you didn't know have labor for it that you had to just keep going with it that you something you just had to accept. Yes, I would say backwards. And I think that until you did that awareness that this is really an issue. A problem should be daily. You can be kind air not treated properly because it is not would you diagnosed like, you know, you're supposed to be actor and examines you able to become diagnosing from diagnoses got to be able to treat you because he has he has a fun of treatment to be that diagnose each this works with the principal. I can determine the factor that caused you really can't treat. And once you discovered what it was actually let me step back and ask at what point were you able to lately? I think I've ever did very late extremely late because I was busy trying to take care of things. Trying to keep my dawn trees maintain my sanity. And just like, you know, this is something that one day would not happen. It would just get better and things change not realizing that in this country. It really doesn't change like you would want to we have today a lot of she teams or. Labeled indeterminate Aries. Inmates are intriguing simply because this was something that was not labeled. And this was diagnosed and on and on the ultimate was somebody's life in the end. So how many years did you go through this situation before you realize what exactly it was that you were in during? Took me about some forty years. I would say I I would say about like forty forty forty five years to realize, but this really. Is the problem? I I would I would read this literature. I was tired of this literature. I would write our do exams to Ecorse industry are. But I all our time. I was not really applying to me personally. I would just like I was studying and to all this subject, but Nash at trying to subject to me personally. Many people do the same thing until there awareness, where do your real life that this is what is really happening. You. So was it that your eyes just opened one day in in going through the literature that you civically go through your eyes. I actually was my going to the literature. I was going to my mind rehearsing and going over past experiences and. Just rethinking and reviewing then they thought just came to me, do you realize that this actually is domestic violence and abuse. So no that that you had the label. You were taught today aware, what did you put into action with this awareness? I quick into action distort that. I need to take care of myself that I need to take a stand. Regarding my personal interest in life because I deserve to. I I need to I need to be treated with respect and I needed to be treated ridiculously and the first person to start with me is many. Was that easy Beverly because from what I know of victims of this the person who's doing this has kinda strips all of that away from the victim, you know, the idea that they can do their own thing. There's usually some degree of control that. Yeah. I just cover these when? I actually this cover these read it was over it me. Oh, it was already over. Yes. I lost those times so much not labeling. This probably that when I actually came to myself and rethinking that what actually happened to me that these was the whole cause of what I was going through. And maybe I could have daily tweet Bater had a label on it to say personally. This is your case. This is how you need to do with ace. And I wonder how many women are are manner to same thing going around in a circle not realizing there's a labor for this and label in needs to be treated in principle. Mothers, I wonder how many you are. They're not able you know, you you have a feeling you. You're you're losing your self esteem your fear for you are. Two are just not yourself. Not be able to see this is the problem, and these how east to be dead with. So my question, then is a honky you could have gone back to that time when you were in your marriage going through this, and you became aware just like someone maybe becoming aware right now listening to this show. What would have been the step? That you would have taken at that time with that new awareness. The first step is to safeguard yourself you need to safeguard your ship. And you need to realize this is a real issue. It's reality, and you're dealing with a circumstance in reach your could lose your life, and you need to start taking action and aggressors their most important issue for them is that the victims should be silent about everything should not open them out to say, anything the minute you open your mouth, you are becoming more for threats to them and your life becomes more in jeopardy. But this is we're you need the bit to develop self confidence in you that you have to take a stand against what show. Going through could be saving your life. You could be saving somebody else's life. But you need to take us time to meet to open them out and let an awareness come about that you are experiencing this. Is that easier said than done, I think it's easier said than done jetties where the bottom line is that the fear of fear of being. Destroyed even more if I talk I think a lot of fifteen maybe holding back because you know, I don't want to lose my life. I don't want to change that. You know, they think I wanna hurting. I don't want to think I don't wanna do. You know, this is this is the personality and this person's always like, so, you know, just generally alone on Lucon two point with these realize that this is an issue that has to be territory each would not be and the aggressor we'll all be sitting awake. Did you have close calls when he went in, you know, 'cause you useful votes. You know having. People who are going through domestic violence, sometimes are put into Asians that you can call very close calls as far as new this goal is if you have any I've I've I've had coached. 'cause basically I've I've had close close card and. I would tell him out there never seen that. You don't have buckles. If you don't talk. Never think you don't have buckle because I could have gotten buckled. If I when I had this close con. I could have gotten jocks. I don't know who I was protecting. Why I didn't reach more from myself. I don't if it was fear. I don't know if it was pride and trying to figure out what stores when I into this gross. 'cause why not take more action on nice debt to to preserve myself to safeguard myself more. I do a lot of any no backdrop, I do a lot of questioning going backwards to see, you know, why did I wait so long? Why why did I hurt myself? So launch. What I would not want victims out there to do continue to be hurting themselves when they need to speak up and say something because the I guiding their life. And that's the that's the thing right there that you are tapping into what makes someone not not do all of that when they knew. And that's where the easier said than done comes in because you're looking and seeing you don't even understand why what was controlling US out point that you didn't Rico's. So we're on the. With with that with that hindsight. What do you think would make someone act even when they're in one of those situations? Right. No that you're trying to figure out to when you look. Rheinische inc. One of his problems, right? Here is fear and the control that he's over your life by an aggressor who feel empowered over you. And you're being squeezed in emotionally, mentally you're being squeezed in. And the one has to realize that on the part of the aggressor. It's it's a very very daily kit parts of your life. We're you'll feel that at any time. You could you could lose your life just by the amount and saying something I I was threatened that if I did speak. What what happened to me so fear played a big Roan until I realized I had to overcome this fear. I had to take a stand. And it's interesting because we know as well that in these situations. Parts of the control leads to the victim isolating. Herself from family and people who would be able to offer good supports normal. The aggressive doesn't want. Those people are on. Dead naturally. Definitely this is where you are caught in isolation. Your look you're being treated like if you should say if you should speak of is like you're being you're not trust worthy. You're not lawyer. And you are you're going to be doing the worst thing if you should open your mouth to speak. I I knew of a situation where they this person got into a marriage and communication was cut off. And we just couldn't get through to this person until after a while. The person got the cremation. Freedom and rain the person become to tell the stuff of what happened. She got into this marriage dispersant came into the house wanted to take over the house wanted her not to communicate with friends and stuff, and she literally had to take a stand. Call the these in guts locks on her door changing locks gut the parties in an everything then she got the freedom to be who she was before. In in a split second. Someone can just try to control your life. It could be a short-term could be long term. But that controlling fake. This aggressor is so over controlled that on the aggressor once is that you need to keep silent about this. You'll need not to speak about this. Because to me you speak equality decent quickly. Otherwise, it's like a a straight threat you, and you you are at the point losing your says because that's not whole you were born to that's not how you want to be you want that freedom of person to be able to talk to be able to socialize to to be able to be the person, you are you want to be in society? Suddenly, I know that this is you can be complicated. Did you still have love in the midst of all that fair? Or you've got to the point where you were just surviving each day with this person, and the local is gone because I know for some woman, they still believe it's love, you know, that they do have for that individuals. And then you wonder you heard some if you look back I've you are in. Some victims may look at the fact that this is my security, and if I should try to venture out of it. What could be from me? It could be a fact that you're playing love, but you're not really love just to just keep some type of peace going just just to maintain your sanity at that moment. What? Then when you win the bottom line is how can you freely? Give of love. Of yourself to personal Louise abusing you is it really love. Rarely loves you get to the point where all that was removed. Like, you really could see clearly that this was not low because some victims. Are you don't have that confusion, basically? I got I got to define to be. I realized. Doesn't shows an operation. These Ray doesn't operate history. Does say spy could have labeled it if I could have labeled it, you know, the aggressor on other hand, they don't want you to open up. They are afraid of counseling. They don't want anybody to interfere. They just want to be in control like they know everything and they don't want anybody around. And that if the mentality of the aggressor that's their mentality. Davy around tree. They are two hundred percent control. Not love. Nut jobs. But that's the know we can see clearly, but the person who is in it sometimes cons. Times, you know. So that's where the complicates the complication occurs. Well, thank you believe how can people reach. 'cause they know that you are helping people individually, you're speaking to groups you are sharing your expertise and not only expertise, but your your personal story. They can reach me at my my phone number. She nine five four three eight three wants to your four eight or on my Email B A S S C A R T E R at she mayor dot com. And one of the things that I would like to add right here is that caused from trees a lot with domestic violence cartridge pace a lot. But I think in all coaches today becoming more predominant becoming more awareness that this is a great issue that is taking place in our societies, and it may have gone out of hand in many places. But I think there's an awareness. That's going on that these these abuses is just costing is costing too much gusting allot a lot of lives. A lot of most now missed most thing but abuses, emotional physical, financial abuse all sides of abuse. And it it is. It if it's not taking into hand and treated the way should be treated like any disease. It could become epidemic where you have so much abuse going on that's getting out of hand. So it people who are easy situation. Don't take it for granted that going to change by of watching time goes by it really doesn't happen. Wait. That's the. Thank you. Beverly? Thank you for sharing that that final thought with us because that that is the key. That is definitely key. Thank you, everyone for listening. My guest today was Beverly Carter. This is your life coach Debra Brown. Thanking you for tuning into taking the you have any questions or comments. I can be reached that nine by four three six one three six one seven or you can visit taking leaf dot com. And waste any questions. You may have see you on the other side of success.

Beverly Carter Debra Brown Ecorse Beverley US school teacher epidemic principal Rheinische inc Nash consultant Frank Lucon risk manager Roan Louise Davy Ray
"A Fungible Color" UCAP1006-charlie

Uncontrolled Airspace: General Aviation Podcast

19:24 min | 11 months ago

"A Fungible Color" UCAP1006-charlie

"Thunderstorms thunderstorms is going to be thunderstorms. Await, that's here. New Hampshire all right in Oshkosh. It's another gorgeous day. The temperature is seventy five degrees scattered clouds light winds out of the northeast. There's no rain in the forecast in Oshkosh and air venture is still canceled so well. You people giving away ponchos just going to to pack them up and ship them back for next year. I was looking at by the way you can get your auch twenty memorabilia your gear all right I mean it all exists. I ordered my buttons and pins and Patches and stuff the other day, and they seem to be very low price too I couldn't quite understand that. They're having a hard time getting rid of them I can't imagine I have no idea why that would be a problem, but you know I went online and took an extensive demographic survey, so I could get my free t shirt. Ooh, there you go, and you think that was worth the the fact that they now have even more information in their in their dossier about amy. Loboda right. Yeah, I'm not sure they got anything new, but whatever? Okay all right. We are here again with another one of our not off twenty. You Cap dailies and we are checking in visiting with a lot of our oshkosh friends. We aren't getting a chance to see in person. And today we're visiting with Amy Loboda hi. Amy. How are you doing? Check. I am doing terrific. It's a rainy afternoon. We've been having a lovely tropical wave for the last twenty four hours coming across the state of Florida and I take that as tremendous relief from relentless heat like. Ninety, five ninety six degrees with high humidity so I'll take eighty six and pouring rain any day over that. Okay well I mean you can always jump in Europe lane and go. That's what JEB is going to do jumping. You're playing good Oshkosh. It's beautiful there. And Ends Right. Yeah, they do have already in Ed's, but I gotta be honest with you. I can't jump in my airplane in this weather. Really. I'm sorry, why is that? There's a convective segment in every direction I. Look Right now I see okay well. That makes sense, I and by the way of course I perhaps goes without saying or not the Jevon. Davor. Hair Hijab Dave how you guys doing? speak for me. I'm gone. Great you you bearing up well under the cash. I would add one thing to to to amy's weather observation. Even though it's thunderstorm me and not as hot, it's at least as humid right now. it's you can cut it with knife or even some other instrument I believe it's been that way up mean. This is the time of year when we get that too I. Know You get it a lot of the summer? but yeah, it's crazy and and you. Amy or you or somebody said you're going to have thunderstorms down there now. I'm supposed to get them any minute. Now we may hear thunders coming through all kinds of channels on these hear nothing from me I. Don't Know I. Oh, yeah, you'll push the button and yeah it out. Well that or I'll just run off to him. Forum ten in shelter the store they. All. Hang Lake this magical world that JEB is in I, think I want to joy. Off. Come on in the water's fine. So first of all, amy, how are you doing in general How is the pandemic treating you? Then you know honestly. I have to say that we are very much sheltered from the storm here, but at the same time I tend to be very cautious person as as a rule, I think a lot of pilots are were risk managers at heart, and so I tend to be a risk manager in the rest of my life as well and my husband is considerably older than I am. So that puts him into a higher risk category. My daughter God lesser. Expect didn't in October which also are in a higher risk category. So, in order to be protective of the people that I am protective of anyway I tend to have created routines that leave me pretty much. Back behind the gates of the Air Park most of the time. I have to be honest with you. So that's kind of been my life. And the and I've worked it out, so that's not such a bad thing I have gotten to do a little flying which has been great. was going to ask about that. Yeah, you are one of you like like Jeb are one of the people who have sanitary control over your airplane. Unlike myself, although I'm getting close to being able to take the risk, but it'd be willing to take the risk, but you guys have your own airplanes. What kind of flying have you been doing? Aiming the the the second level problem in that regard is. Finding a place to go to all right well. Yes, airplane! Sanitary, but you don't know where to go. You can't go one hundred dollar hamburgers, because well, I guess you could. But what are you doing? Where where what kind of flying have you been doing? In the beginning? It was just currency and then it was troubleshooting some new staff, and as you know, we put a new engine in in November of last year, and so we were flying off the the The the break in time on it, so we definitely finished the break in time on it We got some tuning done to it. We got it running lean of peak, and with our special sleeves in injectors, and now fine-tuning all of all of the cylinders and studying all of the information that that we could download off of our office. which tracks all that data on that was very interesting currently chasing down the weirdest break leak ever. That does not seem to be impacting performance, but is definitely driving the mechanic insane. Where were you having this kind of a problem? Like last summer or something? Knowing that other other year was the year we had the oil leak. We had the ranger oil leak on the way up, and that was a strange one, too, but we did figure out what that was. And look set and there was no perceptible damage to the airplane but scared the Jesus out of us. Yeah. Yeah, that was that was an interesting one. Amy's being. A. Forget the word. Jeb, yeah, I but I also flown. Some dual instruction and we masked up and. Yourselves in strange weapon exactly exactly. What a barrier in the middle of the! We didn't winning. Go anywhere. We just fly around and return back to her. Her played in I. Motored on home, did and shortly after that I had the opportunity to help a healthcare worker get to her family, which was great, so had the opportunity to rent somebody up to Panama City. made an attempt to go back and get her, but the weather did not cooperate. In fact, it's the first time in a long longtime where I literally had to make a U-TURN. And said when I got up to where the weather was. I cannot pick my way through this. I thought I could. It looked fine when I left the house. It's now an hour later and I'm right up next to it and I. Do not have the tools to do this. We're not doing this. And what turned? On. Amy, what sort of gear geared you have on board that airplane to help you with that kind of thing, or is it just your eyeballs looking at the sky? Now I have a DSP an my eyeballs, and if you understand how to use ads, be next, Radin and your eyeballs, you can get along just fine, but there are days when you need on board radar to really be able to get through stuff because and Jebel back me up on this because I know he's got a DSP as well There's a significant lag time there's there's a latency time that significant, and also sometimes you'll go through a yellow on DSP that. And sometimes you'll go stick your nose in the yellow on. ESPN, it's like. Okay, so it's a variable kind of thing. Yeah, y'all yellow is a fungible color and adding insult injury. There are two more colors. And L.. Building and not only that, but it was a pickup, so what was going to happen I was going to have to turn around and go right back through it. Yeah. Okay whoops well legal. Let me just jump in here with a little I feel for those of you out there. Who are Alec we all are Jonesing for our air venture, fix? Just WanNa make sure remind everybody that. If you're looking for for to to to get a little bit more alternate oshkosh activities, you should be checking out ya spirit of aviation online of an emmy. If you looked at any of that stuff yet. It's GonNa some fun stuff going on there. Not only have I looked, but I was i. was just recently I jumped on the mental math for pilots for the I thought he did a great job now use some of that stuff with my lane. I liked to calculate my descent. Rates at three miles a minute blah blah blah blah, blah. And he had some some neat tricks and things like that so I was watching that and I'm actually giving a tech talk on Saturday afternoon at five thirty, which is. A time when no one wants to be sitting. Okay with that Saturday at five. They're going by central times, aren't they? Actually, I've thirty it. It's five thirty eastern time for the pilot Proficiency Center Tech Talk and no. Out Eliminating distractions in the cockpit of a technically advanced aircraft. Good luck with that. So many distractions. There's Lauren I just want to I. Want People to admit that there there and start to start the dialogue about how you can defend yourself against them this. Well. There's lots of great information they are. Online is as as Charlie Becker said a placement for adventure, but certainly an alternate is were kind of. sitting around at home or or wherever we're sitting around, you can check out that stuff like shelly game. He said there's forums and interviews and sessions aviation product, information and air venture specials, and you can check that stuff out at ea together dot org that all goes on through the twenty fifth so anyways. He had. Wondering. Have you been wandering around in the virtual hanger? They have a virtual hanger for. Virtual Zander's yeah and then. I thought. I thought we trademark. Lawyer send a letter. Thing. Anyways David David your awful quiet. What's going on with you? What David what would you be doing if you were an era venture? If you're at Oshkosh right now this afternoon today, let's see if I was an adventure right now. I would probably be sitting in the media, center. Finishing lunch or waiting for the next press conference to start, and if I wasn't doing that, I'd be prowling. The exhibits looking for material to turn into stories. Yeah, you see because you. You've always been one of the busiest guys at our venture. Venture Right now. I'd be finding someplace shady to hide out from the midday sun. It's this. Is, exactly right is probably what I would be doing, but well that that that time would come along in another two hours and fifteen minutes, yeah! Amy. What would you be doing intervention right now if you were there? I'd be doing alright out your I'm just going out you. That's what I'm to do here I. warned us. Amy warned us that that hurt. She kinda like. Mr Lunch or something like that and that she was snacking away here and that she would be meeting her microphone from time to time, and I thought I'd give it enough time muted to do her thing, but I've partly I didn't so it's okay. Amy Roll hanging out in the hangar here you. Go ahead I have I have. This point. Okay good. Would you out here or maybe alternately? Tell us about some of the activity things you've done at Oshkosh other than work things I mean we've all kind of I. Mean you know the the the four of us? The nature of our visits to venture oftentimes involves working, but for a lot of people you know I mean and even for US beneath the surface. We go, because we're pilots and we want to hang out there. What's your fond memories of pastor ventures? Amy? Well? You know that I am a volunteer at the AA radio and so I. also I don't consider that work I know. A lot of people consider that work, but in fact it's a wonderful pleasure and I missing that terribly. Might have to be honest with you, but usually by this time of day, I'm getting out of there and I'm just as hungry as I am right now. To be quite honest, and if I'm really lucky, I'm grabbing lunch with with somebody and. The some of my fondest memories of literally been grabbing a lunch, and wondering over at two under a tree somewhere near theater in the woods and relaxing, and not being attacked by ants while we eat it. Sounds good. That sounds good. If you might I don't WanNa. Go too long here because this is a daily not along episode, but I'm kind of curious if you. If you went to Oshkosh and for some reason had to spend the entire week in one particular area of adventure, and maybe you just answered this question, but wh-. Is there an area that you would be happy spending the entire weekend you know. Is it warbirds or is it? Anti or is it what what is it? Now I think I think you miss my point. The only way I am happy at air venture is if I can pace it from length to depth if I start out in the north, forty and I, have a day where I have walked from the north forty all the way to ultralights and back, and my dogs are barking at me, and I'm just as grumpy and tired physically as a person can be, I will be the happiest mentally as a person can be at air venture. So if you pinned me down and told me I had to stay kid venture, and take care of you know this or that or the other or observed I would have problems with that. Okay okay. One of the little bit podcast business here I just want. I've been neglecting this last few episodes, but I really want to make sure we get the word out and thank people. If if you listeners like what we're doing here and you want to help, keep it going. Please consider supporting us through paypal or Patriae on We WanNA. Thank. Say thank you to all the. The folks who make paypal tip jar donations into those who are supporters through Patriot even a small contribution helps makes these podcasts, possible and a special. Thanks to all of the all of you who have already updated your Patriot pledge since we changed over from per episode per month It's really really big. Help you. Folks are the best. Thank you very much Any before we wrap things up here. It's not unusual one. Is over for you and buried ahead head off on some sort of adventure. Is that out of the question this year? Or what's the rest of? Are you going to be? Is this one of the few late summers? You're actually going to be in Fort Myer. The answer is to be determined. Okay well, that's that's actually promising. You're not so you've got. You've got ideas. Oh. We always have ideas honey. We always have ideas. We always have desires. They always involve going somewhere in the airplane. And my hope is that that gets to happen, but I'm also a pragmatist and a risk manager like I said I don't want to. Put anybody in harm's way so every day is a different day and I wake up and I see what the possibilities are. It's a strain summer, but I'm rolling with it. Yeah there you go perfect advice, perfectly of thinking of it Dave Jeb any other questions for me before we wrap this thing up. Need to get together and do some more. At, greed, let's just a statement rather that a question but. Let me, get out from under some schedule issues, and and I will be knocking on your door. We're doing these dailies daily every day. It's going to be ironic when all of a sudden done. If we pull this off, we will probably do more dailies with no air venture happening than we often do when we're actually there. It's you know because when we're actually there were so busy in so many distractions that there's often a day here and there that we miss you know or but you know we're chugging along here. Even I'll be chatting about something very animated fashion and we'll see jack coming. He probably wants to do a daily. We don't WanNa do that. Yet so. We're back. Some more over the next few days with more a not at twenty. You Cap dailies Tomorrow's Daily I should warn everybody. Tomorrow's Daily will be late. For a reason that will become obvious when you hear it but I think is going to be worth the wait, so yeah, they'll be one tomorrow, but it may not appear on the post until late in the evening. So You know there's your. There's your teaser, hint but for now you have you cap off twenty daily up, so charlie and thank you. Amy Really good to talk to you. Great to talk to all of you guys. It feels good. It's almost like home week.

amy Oshkosh Dave Jeb risk manager JEB Amy Loboda Thunderstorms auch Charlie Becker New Hampshire Florida Europe ESPN Amy Roll US paypal Air Park Jevon David David Ed
205: Michael Katz  Day Trading: The Questions You Want Answered

Chat With Traders

1:10:29 hr | 8 months ago

205: Michael Katz Day Trading: The Questions You Want Answered

"For. Chat. With traders comes from coin flex tried bitcoin bitcoin cash thiam various defy coins, and more on the world's first crypto exchange to do physically delivered future is and with up to two hundred and fifty x leverage take two minutes to register for a free account. No Personal Info required at coin flex dot com slash chat. Markets Speculation and risk. This is the chat with traders podcast hosted by Aaron Fifield. What's up everyone? I'm your host Darren Fifield. This is episode two, hundred and five and returning to the Shar is mock. Oh cats mark of course, is an active equities trader and managing partner of trading firm seven points capital. As. This is Mike's third appearance on chat with traders I figured with tweak the format a little bit previously we did more or less a regular interview that was episode one, hundred and fifty six. We also did an episode analyzing how mock try to the lift IPR see episode one, hundred and seventy three, and now this time Mike is Answering your questions. So that means each and every one of the questions I. Ask Mike During this episode was submitted by listeners of the Shar. There were many questions sent in of which assorted into four categories strategy tried management try to development and lastly proprietary trading. And as Usual Mike is a standout guest. So I'm sure the next sixty minutes will be beneficial. Here we go. Because, there's a whole bunch of questions here. I'm not sure if we'll get through them, but we'll see how we go for time. So what don as of tycoon the questions of organisms little bit sorted them into categories. So the first category is broadly around strategy and these first couple of questions most specifically are with regards to content developing strategy. So the first question all throw at you mock what are the best strategies or setups to learn from new tried is Good one. Good question. I think as a traitor, we have to be in a mindset where. Our skill set matches the skills that are needed for any particular strategy. So if my skill set is not on par with what's defeated, then I'm going to hard time. So as a beginning trader, while lot of strategies might really look interesting very sexy. I just have to make sure that they're not too difficult to execute right because then I'll run into some trouble be deterred release. And I won't be able to execute and I want to be able to enter that flow state soap for beginning traders I would say strategies that help you join trend without chasing or probably my favorite. As opposed to strategies where You are trying to fade trend and a reversal. Those are very popular beginning traders, but I think they're more difficult and the reward to risk ratio is not great there. So I would say strategies where you can buy dip in an uptrend whether it's a pullback to moving average or pull back to a previous breakout area in an uptrend. Those are really good risk reward strategies can join what's the bigger picture what's going on there you're buying cheap stock in the short term with the big picture in mind does tend to be easier strategies for beginning traders and vice versa for shorts. Right if it's something selling off and and trending lower you're looking at bounces to join. The downtrend bounces to get short. How do you go about developing new strategies? So I kinda liked to. Develop Strategies I. Radically, it's gotTa make sense to me I like to Baptist where can. I like to try small. On a very small scale think of his lab where. It's Galab were there bunch of strategies in there and we're trying different things, and if it graduates to become a real strategy than we allocate more and more capital to it, but developing new strategies takes the form of I. It's gotTa make sense for us. I like to think that there is there's a thesis behind why I'm in right? So big picture is there a catalyst? Catalyst is going to get the stock to move zero catalyst. It's GonNa, get large participants to want to transact and get and cause an imbalance in the symbol right That's the main thing that we look for, and if that's there then the next thing we want to try to figure out his water, some optimal entries where we can risk x and potentially. Make multiples of that. That's what I'm looking for. So when we're developing strategies really interested in was to catalyst was the reason I'm in there and what's the best spas to get in there and risk very little to make more and and then one day do graduate out of the lab that we call it Then we start allocating more capital to it. And just keeps sizing up as long as it keeps working. So Development, some of it is with coating. Some of it is with back testing, but a lot of it is for us as as discretionary traitors is. Try and get small and sizing up on what does work. And a lot of the thesis for these strategies just comes from screen time like Bain observing the market. Absolutely absolutely. So You know it gets the stock to move because you've seen it before right. So that's where screen time really comes in Handy You know that if CEO gets ousted, that's not good for the stock. Hence Nicole is going to be heading lower and There's D certain catalysts will get a lot of order flow to want to come and participate. And, that's where you want to be. That's where you have the largest imbalances and screen time teaches you that over time it's really good idea to take notes of these catalysts. The ones that caused these massive moves, one way or another, and then you start taking notes and developing strategies around that, and before you know it, you guys off a playbook. As, an you try to should I look into new strategies because of slow market old I'm still trying to master my first strategy. So I think the rational behind this question is. This person is probably heard someone say. Mazda one strategy before we go on and try something else. But perhaps that strategy isn't as effective in a slow market. So should they continue sort of pushing on to try and find another talk of strategy that might be more fitting to the current market? Yeah, I'm I'm all for that I'm all for trying things, but definitely do it on a small scale right? You don't want to try anything new and size up early on you wanted I figured out that there is edge there. You want to figure out when you're getting gained when you're getting out how much you risking and make sure that you're not going. Very hard, very, very pretty soon early on. So I'd say, yes, gets quiet. Try Different things, but don't risk your hall count on it. and. Then size up if it does work now. Beginning traders and developing traders and experienced traders. Challenges to sit on your hands and not to a whole lot whenever the market gets quiet right? You WanNa, hit it whenever it's really busy. You WanNa hit it whenever it opportunities are there and then just do a lot less when it gets quiet. So you guys have to be careful not to fall into the trap of it's quiet. Therefore, I'm going to try new things therefore here I am now all of a sudden very active. It's okay to try it on a small scale to see if you can figure out some some setups but make sure it's not just to get you to. Don't get very active again. How to chase edge and constantly shifting markets. And I guess this is probably quite relevant given the sort of market conditions with saint over the past. Twelve months or so. I. I I. Don't like JC Nudge. Chasing edge has the connotation of whatever's working now, running after an AB- sizing always behind the curve. That's kind of how I see chasing edge first of all, I to know what to expect from my strategy. So when starts to underperform? I can figure out if it's me, that's underperforming is it just a bad market for for this particular setup or has the setup lost edge I really want to try to figure that out and before I start chasing edge and moving on I know what I want to execute what works for me and wild sometimes, it does slow down I'll do lesson them but just make sure that you're not chasing edge always chasing the next thing that that's. Looks like it's working by the time you realize early changing. How to detect a short squeeze now, these next couple questions I think. Probably. GonNa be around shorting Para Bolic's. which often occur from a short squeeze or can-do. Sure. Yeah. We see that a lot we have a lot of these low floats that can really get extremely parabolic trap a Lotta Schwartz. How do you detect that What we've noticed with a lot of these symbols that do end up trapping shorts creating squeezes that Whenever they look like they're weak. They're not really going down so. You have to spot what? Isn't happening and should be happening. So IF A. Trash named looks like it's going lower breaks previous support, and he just peaks below it and has no follow-through. That's information. Right that's telling us there isn't any follow through this a lot of soaking lot of buying going on there. That's a lot of times of precursor to squeeze later on ride. So that's the first e will look for. The other thing we're interested in is the time of day a lot of these low flows that end up running and having a multiday run. They're making new highs after ten thirty eleven o'clock. Most of these floods when a gap up their fading sometimes pre-market given up a lot of gains. Sometimes, they've given up a lot of gains by ten thirty and they continue lower. So if they're making you highs after ten thirty eleven o'clock, that's another huge red flag saying. This is potentially squeezed. could be squeezed coming here. So those are the two main ones when you expecting something to happen and it doesn't just be careful and make sure that you know where your exits are before. You even get in that way if it's does not work, you not just being forced out of Detroit already lower getting out beforehand. Just as you mentioned premark, the allow ski this question which came through. As pre-market trading bad as bad as the retail world says it is. So let me just rephrase that a main thoughts on pre-market trading. Yeah we. Trade. Actively. Pre. But we want to straight anything. Obviously, it's gotTa have a reason for us to be in. There has to have volume when you pull up the chart. When you pull up the stock, it has to look like the ready open and has to be trading with that type of the quantity. Otherwise we won't look at it right. So we're okay with trading premarketing just gotTa make sure that it's not something very thin the you're not being moved around and being. Squeezed one way or another because there's no liquidity. That's the main thing for us if it's Scott acquitted. By all means we traded pre market we have no problem with that. Okay. Just going back to the parabolic moves. So I just previously asked you to detect a short squeeze. Once the squeeze is our ever. Obviously I'm simplifying here how do you sense when a top may come in? So to answer Dallas backup second, let's talk about the short squeeze. What are the precursors for that? Short squeeze. If you're trading low flow, let's say there's five million shares. That's available on the market, right as a floater five million and at the stocks already traded. Twenty thirty fifty one hundred million shares by ten eleven o'clock. Right and it's not really going down. What does that tell you? Tells you that there's a lot of shares changing hands or a lot of participants are going in and out and chances are whoever wanted to sell that. Got The ability to sell it there and surprise didn't really go down off of that. We will we see with a lot of stocks the squeezing really hard is we have this theory on a desk that there's somebody that comes in some big player that corners to float and says, okay, you anything you want to sell all by it and then one day own most of the float than they run it up and they decide where that. Where to sell you a stock right so two shorts or pretty much in really bad shape and they're at the mercy of whenever that individual wants to sell them those shares. So, when something is running like that and it's a real parabolic is the slope is accelerating and is going higher and higher, and you know it's halting left and right and everybody's excited over the symbol. While for participant to be able to get out. He's GonNa, leave a footprint behind, and that usually tends to be with a lot of volume also at the top. So we look for Parabolic potty another top you look for the big volume you want volume because that's where the shorts are being forced out of their positions. That's where they're giving up, and that's where whoever cornered to flow to say, Hey, I will sell it to you here and they've decided to win the happens and from that point I'm guessing that that. Particular participant. Is Now just selling on the way down and unwinding everything else that they have to sell. This next question might Sorta Bay referring to what you were talking about there but how do you use overflow execution on reversal setups? Exactly. So it's extended. Order flow could come in very, very handy device. which the tape is printing is important. The size of the prince's important. And how they're being absorbed by the level two is also important. So if all of a sudden. The stock has gone. Parabolic is extremely extended. Say one eight t away from. To eighteen hours away from view up very extended from short term moving averages and all of a sudden you have a lot of volume velocity picks up and you have these massive prints that are going off massive offers or come and. That tells us that the smart money two large players are selling their and then if if you see also. Certain amount of soaking the offer. So let's say thousand shares displayed and all of a sudden. Tens and hundreds of thousands of shares traded that price would thousand shares budging that tells us also that there's a lot of selling their. So reading the tape there does come in handy but you gotta be able to act quickly respond to that. So volume velocity and soaking. When shorting a parabolic move like we've been discussing him. Do you scale and slightly add into a top or d white for clear lower heart to get insured. So the safer way to do it is to wait for that lower high. Right. So something is going up is accelerating. It's it's peaking. Let's say not a top is in if we try to pick this top, that's a very difficult trade and it's not really for beginners. But. That's where you get the most reward. Right. But you have to be able to cut that trade off in and move on and close it if you're not right and try to get another time. So that's a very difficult trade and it's not for beginners because a lot of times beginnings will freeze up in that spot and not cut that trade. And something that's going as fast as it is similar, we're talking about that can get far away from really quickly and it could get ugly right. So that topic is very difficult our trade as do it some like it and some do really well at it but not for newbies if you wait for that drop, right? So if a top is in. The shorts covered that gave up the chasers got caught they chased in smart money selling their chances. Are you going to have a big drop because there's the vacuum now there those buyers the chasing it up and bidding up and not getting filled guess what the volume traded. And now they're all filled. Who Else is there? Nobody's there left anymore to. To, buy stock up right. So he's a big drop and that's The frontside traders are looking to catch but then. That lower high comes afterwards if it's not able to make new highs on next balance. The curl down they're the age pattern lower high whatever you call it. That's a safer entry, and now you have a defined spot to trade against that high. Therefore, if it does make all new highs again, then you're getting out, but that's a safer play and that's one that we like a lot. This next question is not necessarily in regard to a shorting parabolic moves. but just in general, how do you Scou- into positions and adjust risk accordingly. Unless my position is going to be so large that have to scale in without choice, I really prefer to do it in one or two shots. I like to wait for a spot wait for my timing wait for the opportune time to hit it and then and then just go all in when whatever my risk allows me to go in I find that that's better for me because it allows me to sit on my hands more and weight as opposed to having some on scaling again, and then allowing it to go against me and adding that's not the type of traitor I am you know the are traders out there that? That's what they like to do the as a higher caused immortal add more they liked to trade and immortal short or as a stock is dropping into buying in their keep on adding as it's going lower, they might start with a starter and get bigger as it confirms me personally I don't like to trade that way. I. Like to just wait for my my opportune time and if I'm right and I have been able to spot that inflection point where one man there should be no turning back. And then that's great spot from deandre and I want to have the full size on at that point and if it's not, that's what it's very easy for me to tell because the trays going against me and I can get up. Other than parabolic. What's one of your favorite small cups setups? And what are some things within the setup that you're looking at to enter and exit the tried? So parabolic is definitely a big one. the age pattern afterward after power Bali that's key for us as well. So something that's been running. Drops. Hard, not able to make you highs. That's a that's a secondary up there. Really good. you rarely see these small caps with rounding top. Rounding top means like every time it makes a new high. It makes it vital a lower and lower amount whereas kind of slows down momentum slowing down shifting to the downside. A Lotta, these small caps that that we're talking about the mostly end with some sort of acceleration to the upside, and then just a sharp drop right afterwards. So As far small caps those are my main ones once it's once it's backside. Once, it's already shown that it's backside than the the the other thing that we could do is just getting on bounces if it's downtrend and it's backside we're looking for pop's we're looking for sharp rallies that in a maybe it's short-covering maybe it's just some pr Some nonsense move it we try to get in on does bounces. So those are the three railways will get in on small caps. What if moving away from small caps? Are there any longer short setups that? Go to. In. General. Just any. Schwartz setup. Let's see. So. In. This market since since we bottomed in March we've had. A really strong rally off the laws right and despise have put in pretty much Avi bottom. Nobody really expected that and. We've had a lot of market leading stocks that did extremely well, the Amazons the zooms. CRM and the video. So many symbols come to mind where. Not only. Did they bottom? Extremely outperformed the market. So one of my favorite trays these days is to just look for these symbols that are really strong they they. Might. Fit to cancel a model where you know they have. They're they're growing really well they have a new product that's the market, their segment It's really strong making you highs and I tend to focus on the long side. Those try to find dips within a trend or try to find continuation patterns like flags and pennants to join trend but having that big picture of. Hate Peleton. They're really. Cornering the market if stir growth is is through the roof. The stocks acting really well, let's find ways to to to trade and alongside during the day I'd rather not short does. And those ways might be like like I said patterns such as. retracement to two previous breakout flags. And some failed. Short setup. So that's you there. So big picture looks really good right strong on a daily lots of catalysts driving the stock up higher, and then when we zoomed in, whatever would get me in on a short setup if that starts to fail. They fill a level against broken and again follow through. Now that becomes a long signal for me. ACA. Chat with tried his podcast is brought to you by a new sponsor to in a really cool thing that I would like to introduce to you Mazda works with bones and savings accounts providing dismal returns right now preserving your net worth is as hard as it's ever Bain but that's where masterworks comes into the picture masterworks. That's you buy and sell investments and blue chip art by. Artists like bank see 'cause and even monae. 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Our exchange to do physically delivered futures. Quinn flex is also the first to offer two hundred and fifty x leverage and the first to launch a crypt spread market. As many traders, NAR spreads up all too common in traditional futures, and now coin flex is providing a similar market for crypt I tried as. and. When it comes to security, you can rest easy knowing the team behind coin flex have flawless track record and all assets as security held and multi signature cold storage. Sorry. It's feticide. Coin Flex is an exchange leading the way on many fronts take. That's to register for a free account. No personal inferred required at coin flex dot com slash chat. Someone has sent in a question here, which I think is quite interesting would love to hear how the firm traded big hot stocks like cardiac how do you manage risk with these massive spikes and stock halts Max Day losses sticking trading rules managing emotion, etc.. A lot of these symbols are just really wild As a traitor, you look forward to these types of symbols you like. Kodak and go from twenty to sixty. In one day you have sti the other day we had the stock. Oh from a dollar forty. And then back to fifteen I think in the same day. How do you manage risk as intraday traders? Just incredible. So as as Traders we love you want the volatility and we can't wait for simple to to move like that. But now when you wearing your risk manager hat on and you're monitoring traders and you want to make sure that nobody blows up you WANNA make sure that everybody's. You know in in a good spot to try to capitalize on it rather than get hurt then it's gotta approach little bit differently One of the takeaway videos we did recently was about P I, and I had to call a meeting. S P I and you mentioned Kodak but it's the same idea SPF. Midday, we call the meeting we all jumping zoom call and ask guys what the F. We doing here. Everybody's trading frontside. Everybody's so convinced that the stock is going down the all the stocks eighteen or fifteen or whatever was and everybody you look at my screen and everybody's shorts and it's like it's a nightmare as a risk manager because like well, how many times does each train going to try this thing? Before they realize. Okay, maybe it's not going down and it really starts to add up. So. On our part is it's really important to to monitor the symbols and to be in touch with the traders throughout the day. Just make sure. Hey, make sure you we waiting for your setup. Don't just be emotionally because you know it's going down. Make sure you have a reason to be in preferably wait for the backside because once the backside is in it. That's going to be easier, but then you look at us. And distinct kept halting left and right went from twenty to thirty to forty and end from forty. I think it opened down twenty five. it was just incredible it's very hard to manage risk Delhi so. A lot of traitors just end up leaving it alone. Insane. I'm I'm GonNa wait I'm going to wait for this thing I don't care if it goes from forty to twenty five without me. But maybe. It goes to twenty-five. It gives me a trade where I can try to make five ten fifteen dollars under way down. So it's really hard. How do we manage it position sizing? Just. Constantly being in touch with the traders making sure that they're third straight emotionally, not just in and out for the sake of being in an. Really, wait for for the best setups in it because if you if you're. If you run out of AMMO. then. You're not going to be able to hit it opportunity looks great. But if you're out of AMMO A lot of times, you're not gonna be able to hit it again. So It's important to to size down and we. have no interest in trading those days in those symbols because it's just too difficult. So when you have these like extrordinary situations like this. Do you increase the amount of risk that you're giving yourself on that day a little bit more flexible in that regard or is it still just the same as any other day? So each trader has a lockout and we call that a speed bump. once hit a certain Max loss they. LOCKED OUT OF TRADING At that point they have to chat with your manager or with me or with my? and. Explain why they WANNA be unlocked right so if if it seems that the traders Is. Not. untilt. Seems like the trailer is. Just. Hate a few bad trades happens sometimes get streak of trays a homework. There's still opportunity there trade thinking clearly than we give them an locking and he can keep going to get some more risk But if we see that it's the trader is not. Put on. The best till now is trading emotionally is afraid of missing out on the trade constantly just kidding back in after closing trade. These are things that we don't like, and they probably won't get locked day now to come back another day. I think this question Tarzan nightly with the previous spun. AROUND CARDIAC SPF. Is a question with regard to Sa n a I'm not familiar with the story behind this, but it's probably much long sin the law. When you see a stock like s in a gaping and developing Bullish Prosecution de style bearish due to its fundamentals and filings or neutral, and a by what the shot says. Right. So SRNA's that covert stock that is is working on on developing a drug for for Covid it's been employees it's been. It's had a lot of strength. The fundamentals say that this is toxic stock every time he caps up as an offering they don't make any money. This is going to go back down. And now here you are you're short and you noted the stocks going lower, but the stock is not right is heading higher. So. We we are price action traders it. We can have a thesis whether it's fundamental or whatever it is filings. But if the price is not adhering to what were we need the stock to do then then we have to get out as just. Does nothing else to you can try it again another time maybe at a better opportunity, maybe at a higher price may be another day but you can't just be in there and say, well, this is A. This is a trash company. It's GonNa drop offering I'm going to sit here and wait for them to to drop that offering or it's such a garbage company that every time it's run up. It's failed before you can have a little bit of bias but you can't just sit there and watch the thing go against you keep running the half to have the point where you're getting out and it's better to have that spot. Beforehand. You know what that is otherwise if you don't have it, then the stock's GonNa find that spot and get you out. Force. You Up. It's happened to be so many times you know I in preparation for this for this show, I went back in for the last couple years I pulled up all my biggest winners and biggest losers I just started looking at the biggest losers like every time I get into a stock and I, don't really have an idea of where my stop is where I'm going to call it quits onto symbol That's the one I really get hurt and it instead of me deciding where I'm getting out the market decides that and Usually not in a good spot. Yeah I think it's if you don't cut the trade quickly and you let it run against run against you too far. It's like. Eat Don't want to be cutting the top right. It's it's that fear of counting the top. Exactly. And that's what you see with these symbols when they're running right like you see trader, get it in the shortage anti goes up and they get stopped out and the worst thing for trader is the second closed out the thing goes right back down like aw shit I gotta get back in and then they chasing one is going down and then guess what it's an uptrend you just shorted the bottom of a pullback in an uptrend. And it's going back up. And I if. You really want to know where you're getting outlet. Let the price tell you where yeah you fundamentals are right. But right now is not the right time. Try to know another time and give yourself down with to to try it a couple of times. Are there traders say hey, this is. A carbon symbol, it's five. It's ten. It's fifteen and guess what I'm going to keep adding and I've got the bank bankroll and I can keep adding and it's not gonNA phase me. I know the end result lets us laughing last Arner traders that could do that. Yet I'm sure there are I, know of a couple. But for the most. Most traitors just puke it out at the worst time and I don't have the bankroll to to be able to ride that out. So yeah, I I'm almost for just saying I've been wrong. Let me try another time brought. So this next category of questions of put into tried management that includes risk of SUV talk that risk a little bit hit but there's a few more questions on that topic. How do you adjust your position saws and daily risk after having multiple red dyes consecutively, and how do you approach it went on a winning streak. Good one. Good question because we're faced with that every single day righty Caesar, we gotta sized down where we guys is up or stay course. Cut In half. If I'm having a Shitty Ron cut it in half might whatever my lockout is on the day cut it in half and if it's still not running well cutting half again and keep doing that until I can get Green Day until I could get another green day and I can get a consecutive run where I'm having some green days some momentum I'm thinking clearly again I've got my confidence back. And then let size backup. So. If I'm running well, just cutting half and cut in half again I keep doing down until you get your footing until you stop that slide, stop the bleeding. And then there's always going to be a time to make that money back but don't try to do it whenever things aren't working. Don't try to do it whenever either you're you're not reading the market well or your strategies not allowing up with the market. Well, for whatever reason, we don't care why just cut in half and do less, and then get your footing and and size up on time becomes right and to answer the second part of question. How do you size up Stan was been on your show before he kind of came up with this basic idea of hey, let's take our. Twenty one day average of our green trades of our green day. So the average Green Day for the last twenty one days and make the your lockout or some variation of that so that when you do get locked out you're. Just giving back. One day's worth of losses. Right? One days worth of gains. So if my average Winning days x for the last twenty one days. That's my lockout. And then. What that forces me to do is all of a sudden. Wow. I. WanNa put this trade on but. I'm really going to be selective because to make sure that averaged as high because that's what's going to get my lockout bumped even higher I sa- traders become really aware of what their trading and wider doing it is this going to be the one that's going allow me to bring up my my average higher because I want to keep sizing up I want to keep doing more so just some metric of. Your average winning day because you really don't want to give back more than one or two winning days. If you give back a months worth of trade of of piano in one trade and it's just it's it's tough spot to be in a traitor. A lock that concept that's seems court clever. Yeah. A lot of guys started using his Dan kind of. Made up the school spreadsheet and he chatted about it with our traders and worn more guys started using it and. We like it a lot. It's just if you're not. Making on average per. You really shouldn't be losing that much. Yeah. Yeah Okay knows. During periods of tilt associated with one particular setup giving back a month's work of Prophet. Do you size down on that particular setup? Are Only would he saw down for all of your setups? Did that your question. Yeah for sure I mean if I don't care why if it's a one set up or if I'm not trading while if I'm giving back a months worth of piano in one trade, then I've I've got us is down because I'm I'm emotional. Probably GONNA try to make it back That's a pretty big loss. Lose one month's worth of piano. So yes, definitely size down overall not just for that set A. Fish short-term term equity trading dies A. Six. How do you try trial I stop I. Guess asking You. This question is probably more proper to ask about on intraday basis. Yeah. How do you try to stop or do you have a fixed target for we exit the position? So? I guess Kinda talking about two different things they're trying to stop for managing the tried and then finally exiting the tried. When I get in I wanNA. have an idea of what I can potentially make on the trade have some sort of a target. It's not a hard target where if it gets there on closing trade, you know I'm up three Rs. Thank you very much on the no, it's more of like well, I can kind of target. Three RS five hours whatever to set up calls for and that's kind of where I'm targeting. But I won't get out there just because it's headed I wanna try to make more. and as far as trailing goes. I like to trail two previous spits. I don't like trailing by fixed dollar amount like by trailed assemble by twenty cents or fifty cents or some or one Agr I've seen traders do I just like to say if there's a trend? Let's say to stocks going up in and every time to stock pulls back and makes a higher low. Well, if it's not able to get below a previous low, that's a good spot for me to put my stop because it's proven that their support there is proven that is an inflection point there that the buyers are in control, the sellers could not overpower to buyers and to stock went up from there and. That's how I tend to trail my stop just move it to right below that spot if it breaks that and I'm used to Trenton has changed otherwise I wanna keep going staying with trade. Okay. This next question, the person says I have been struggling with my exit slightly what criteria do you consider prior to exiting a profitable trade? Okay. Goodson. It's kind of a follow up to the previous one I should say that you know I. I don't only trauma stops, right so I do also take pieces off as it's working, but I do want to make sure that I have some for the bigger move. Right. So if I if I'm trading setup where on my parabolic. I am looking for you know stock that's running up and I tend to see from my from the for my history that I will make anywhere from like two to three hours on average on that setup. But with maybe like seventy five percent win rate. Then, I'm Kinda gone for two three, four are range right and I will trim when when when the stock. Gives me that. Right. So a lot of it is very setup specific I'm gonNA trail my stop very differently for something that's a parabolic and is now just coming back in line and and gum coming back to the averages coming back to Earth. Trade, trailed very differently than short. That's trending down and making lower lower highs. In lower lower. High. Setup. A more likely just trailed with with pivots list. Let it keep going. Stop the out whenever you re reclaimed a previous high. Whereas if it's just more Rick Retracement, a mean reversion type of trade then I'm kind of going for that. Preset number two, three, four hours give it to me give me that high win rate and I'm out. What would you suggest to someone who usually scouts out too early on triads. Force yourself to to trail a little bit. Maybe. Not The whole thing but some. And also try to explore what might be causing you to take a trade off too soon. Is it because you're too big and you see it you see the number on your screen you see. I gotTA grab it. And then that gets you emotional or is it maybe you don't have a predetermined list of of wireless to exit right so Baker List what are the reasons you're allowed to exit disparate ticketless setup one might be approaching support one might be, let's say for short you're approaching support and other one might be the trends change is now a positive trend reclaimed highs. That's another reason PR hits against extended to the downside of it gets power had inverse of parabolic really shoots through downside volume kicks in. All the long Spanich out that's another reason to exit. So each set up is going to have that set of rules for me and say. These are the ways to exit this particular setup. And now I have something hold myself accountable to I. I can grade myself and say, okay at the end of the day, what do you give yourself? What kind of grade on your exits if you don't have that list, it's kind of is going to be very difficult to know what he did. Wrong. Is next category of questions of classed as more development type of questions. I want Bain I'm currently break-even try to how can I get to the next step and become a consistently profitable trader. Just keep at it. In nobody goes from consistently read to consistently green and become a superstar overnight. So whatever got you from. Going to from consistently read to break even. That's that's an accomplishment you know in this market. It's an accomplishment. So whatever that point, keep at it and keep improving, cut out the car, the mediocre traits cut out the ones that are like, okay. Should I be and you're not sure. Leave them out just focus on your best rates and a Lotta Times that will get. To the next level and now just focusing on on on really good traits. What software do you use for bacter-, sting and tracking data? I've got better with python over the years. So a lot of my back testing I do python, I get the tick data and then loaded and and I work on in Jupiter Notebook. We have other tools available. You know such as trade station, not some guys years in thinker swim. Different. What is quantum paean different ones out there. but I personally lately have been they've been doing a lot in python just downloading raw data and and just building back tester from scratch. It's time consuming but really gets me gets involved with the data and I know what I'm looking at as opposed to just looking at the results. I can appreciate that answer. Love it do you track statistics on your tried setups and if sorry, how many traits do you consider to be sufficient sample size for analyzing? The more better I definitely track. Stats and each setup I'd say at least thirty, forty trades a is is the minimum to say, Hey. This is enough data to go on. But I definitely do track the more to better and I like to track him by setup. Trader view is a good tool for that. Some traders have different accounts for different setups. So you know under front end. They select, which account they trade goes into. So that that helps them. In couple of ways one is that. They can track the stats lot easier. It's ready segregating separate accounts. And the other is that to get some to to think about the trays that they wanNA. Put on C. which bucket a belongs in does belong in district district is account on data count it allows them to be more selective. In your opinion, what characteristics separate medic consistently profitable traders from the very late traders. Let's see somebody to answer that. Two ways one is pre corona and then post coronas at Ikea divert. Pre Corona it's. A. It's a mindset that entrepreneurial mindsets you're always learning. You're always adapting. You're always trying to get better. Very aware of your stats, you very aware of of what you're doing what's working and keep doing more of what is working just cut out all the noise and cut out all the mediocre trays that that tends to elevators the next level and an elite traders definitely doing that the really a very good understanding of what it is that they do well. What segments of the market they re dwell and a focus they're not they're not scattered. An yet, it's still very true pre or Gerona. Now that we've kind of been through corona and we've we've had the crazy volatility and we had traders do extremely well. Traders all of a sudden just have. Positive performance really elevate them to the next level. It gave them more confidence. some of them made good money and how they're not worried about money as much or not really more focused on the trade. So post grown I would say also it's just. It comes to you over time you got to see it and you gotta go through really good periods and you. You've got to have some success in all of a sudden that brings you to the next level. It gives you the confidence. You not thinking about the money anymore now, you really zoned in on trades. And then I've seen that with a few traders where all man where did they come out of like all of a sudden they just Putting up say numbers that. We weren't really expecting beforehand. So you know to prone answer there, and at the same time, some people are just not. Going to make it to be emily trader and I'm sorry to say you know some people are just going to be consistently profitable traders. Crate. Traders. Good traders, but not everybody is going to be in elite trader. Some. Some of it does end up being talent. Everybody can get to the point where they're like. Okay traders consistent. Profitable traders but not everybody's going to be able to get to the point where they're superstars. this these next questions all around prop trading and questions around. One points now obviously it's. Doing this episode wasn't intended to be a promotional pace for seven points, but there's a lot of questions around it. So it's you know people want answers to these types of things. An in this first question might be a little bit similar to that last one. I'm not sure if it's worth while asking, you can tell me to move on if if you think. It was the current tame at seven points. What's the number? One skill attribute that you'll most consistent possesses? Just, being able to sit on the sidelines and wait for their trades the best traders just sitting and waiting, and they're really pushing it hard whenever it lines up whenever they're setup lines up to timing's right. They're really pushing hard and then they just doing a lot less or very little of everything that thought that doesn't meet that criteria. In general. How long does it take for China's seven points to become consistent in the case of nonprotection experience and I'm not sure if you actually hire anyone with prod China experience but. Yet feel free to onset heavy. See Fit. How we don't really hire traders with no prior experience. We tend to focus on traders that have some profitability some consistency. Even if it's just where they've been trading for a year or two would small account but they're learning the ropes there the have the passion for trading they they can't get enough of it. They're learning the reaching out to people and. They learned that this is not just some pipedream learned. This is not just. Go on on some chat room and you become a millionaire. It's not like that. So yet that usually tends to weed out a lot of the beginning traders they're not gonNA make it. If they've been doing it for a year or two on their own, and now they're getting to the point where they might be at break even on their own, and now you put them under a trading umbrella where to have support from other traders. have managers have a feedback from other traders have. People help them control their risk have capital day. They're not just be not trading tiny account all of a sudden those traitors have a chance of making it a becoming a lot better. So we don't really hire traders with with zero experience but we will look traders that are still early in their development of showing that they do have that chance to make. A Jalan would you say it takes a try tip become consistent obviously there's there's one number there but just broadly speaking sort of an approximate on an expected timeframe. It's really on a by case. Basis we have high traders that can come in and sit down and within a month or two already putting up some really good numbers of and. That that does happen sometimes then we have traders there have been with us for. A year year and a half and just still not doing great and we're never going to tell them look. It's not working out because they're not really losing. US. Money. May Be making a little bit of money We're just constantly GONNA try to help them improve and make them better but I'd say on average six months years should be plenty of time to become consistent and and making progress. Especially, if you've done a lot of basics your own for year where you learn a lot of the basics if you know what I mean. What are the advantages and disadvantages of trading at a prop them this trading Gerard Money? The big one is capital. Know. If you have a small account, then you're limited to PD and You're not really able to trade freely. That's a big one Capital another one is support. Having access to other traders that are trading well are consistent or profitable have winning strategies and being able to get exposure to them. a lot of traders where we have the little clusters where even though that's not the traders manager that they'll have a lot of clusters discussions. Of throughout the day and they'll send each other report cards and they'll send each other journals. So having exposure to winning traders is definitely a big positive i. think another big one is having someone to hold you accountable. That's key. So if you're if you're constantly making the same mistake. Somebody say, Hey, why are you repeating these mistakes over and over? Let's work on. Putting in some processes in place help us get rid of this mistake that's constantly coming up in your trading. So having someone to answer to and to work with you on on becoming a better trader and. And risk manager also, right how many times do you see traders on their own blowing up an SPF or Kodak I I mean it doesn't mean that we don't have bad days. Well, we definitely do just we have these heart stops. We have you know my my partner Mike was just tremendous with managing risk and dealing with the with the back end of business. He's he's the one. I. Got to go to his hey, Mike, I'm locked out. Even, I have to do that I'm locked out What do you think about Miki continue to trade by now? So I even I need to have that That backstop that guardrail in place that says a you cannot. Blow Up. You cannot risk your whole career just because you're having a bad day just because you're emotional just because things aren't really working for you so that Guardrail place to say to help traders. Not Blow up in help them from. Just getting in trouble and keep the monitor from themselves. Any disadvantages. Disadvantages. I guess maybe if you're if you have a certain trading style that doesn't Mesh with the firm that you're joining. That might be one. So if you just gotTa, make sure that the the firm that you're joining the strategy that you like to trade type betray you are kind of lines with with the firm that you're joining. So if your future's firm a futures trader and you joining an equity firm that could be one if you're one that likes to swing for the fences and takes huge drawdowns and you're okay with that but the firm joining doesn't let you draw down that big that could be. A disadvantage. We you might be a profitable trader you're just. Taking big drawdowns that's trade. while. Not the most efficient way to trade you're profitable. So that could be a disadvantage but I think in the long run definitely a lot more advantages we'll said. D. Think beginning retail traders have a chance was should they try joining a proper at first chance? We get on a lot Most prop trams are probably not going to be able to give you a seat and allocate capital to you. If you don't have some experience. If you're completely a beginner, you're new to the game. There's a lot to learn and you're not gonNA be able to hold on the seat than a prop firm while you're learning those basics so. Learn as much as you can on your own learn about the market structure learn about what you WANNA trade was it equities is it options? Futures it. What are you looking at trade and then learn what type of set of us make sense to you try different things but make sure that you're you're doing that on a very small scale. You don't want to risk your livelihood you on a risk, your savings thankfully these days it's very easy to open small account and no commissions and tried things on a very small scale. And then. Find Yourself Mentor join a chat room here and there join a chat room for a month or to see what you could learn from their join another one month to later see, we can learn from there and pick up some skills and then you say, okay. I've tried it. I've gone from consistently read less red, maybe NAMA break. Even trader I've realized that this is not an overnight success story I've realized that it takes a lot of hard work. amped up for it. I'm willing to put into time and I've tried on a small scale. This is kind of what I'm interested in. And can I find it prop firm that can I can align myself with and now become better with them? That's that's the best way to. What role did quotes have at seven points if any? we. Have Quantitative. Traders where they're doing a lot of back testing data mining. We don't do automated trading but you know we do use data and quantitative data to to figure out setups to figure out what works to write are indicators to write scanners. And Baptist ideas. But I would say we're more discretionary than quant. To seven points highest swing traders. Yes yes definitely. A decent amount of my gains. This year has been an swing side. I think since the first time we spoke why my personal trading has changed to the point where I'm doing a lot more swing trading. The firm as a whole where or were holding positions overnight a little bit more. So if somebody has a a good strategy has edged that doesn't have blow up risk overnight we're definitely open to them. I'm just curious to Nari myself a little bit about some of those swing tried. So I come today out as a diatribe which works it's you know picking up momentum in the afternoon you feel like there's going to be a gap. The next die is that the top swing tried you talking about or you'd sort of writing a a hot sector or? What's going to get you interested to to swing a position? Some is a day trade that translates into an overnight trade never when it's losing trade. So the only way to a deidre can become an overnight hold is. If it's a winning trade, we never want to extend more time to losing trade but most of the traits they start out with in mind they stay our swing set up. You know why you're in and You know where you're out is you know where your stop goes on their sector is hot like an EV market right now all the Ev. Stocks have gone crazy for a while that was good on alongside with some sweet traders than on the backside as well. pot stocks for a were extremely hot. So Yup, when when the sector becomes hot, that could be good. I personally have been doing a lot of swinging indies market-leading leading stocks that we'd mentioned before the Peleton's zooms and have you know? The away of ranking De stocks that if they're outperforming acting while. I'm not just interested in day I want to hold them for the bigger pictures while. Okay Coco. How can someone who wants to transition from a different career get a job with a prop trading firm. I. Appreciate this mobile a little bit similar to some of the those past questions but it's an interesting way to put it. Yeah definitely it's it's similar to before just. You can have to learn a lot on your own. You'RE GONNA have to learn the basics lease on your own I wouldn't be so quick to transition from current career. What a lot of guys do is we've seen workers if somebody is transitioning from another career, they start out small. They're trading part-time. They figure out a way to make the two work together and slowly when trading proven to the the. It's profitable enough where they can. Live off of it then they do more of that and then quit their their careers I wouldn't quit. Your current career in hopes of trading replacing that especially if you're sitting home. Because of Corona and now you have some free time and you're in front of computer, you've got your Robin Hood Account Going and. All of a sudden you become a proper traitor just make sure that You prove to yourself that you can do it and do it on a small scale and then the market's not going anywhere. There's always going to be time for you to be able to quit your job and do it fulltime. What kind of profile a looking for to fill remote TRY TO POSITIONS It's the same as. An in house trader. Maybe, with a little bit stricter because they're not sitting right next to us and It's a little bit more involved with managing that traitor, but it's the same idea. That have to be profitable to have to show that they're growing. The have strategies are scalable. A lot of times when we come across. Remote traders is that might have they might be profitable, but the strategies aren't really scalable also they're. Trading off of one, very small edge at does can really handle. A lot of size were not as interested in that because. there is a lot of room to grow there so. as far as remote traders were, we've actually hired quite a few because of Gerona. Now that everybody's trading from home our offices are all still closed and. It's going to remain that way for a little bit. we've we've definitely heard some remote traders and. they've been great some been some some great pickups and they've been. Able to integrate into firm. Really well. It's the same idea. A good trader. That's GonNa sit next to you is going to be a good trader if he's sitting home remotely involved with the tea or just right there live next year. Last question mark any chance you're going to open an office in London. Is a matter of fact, we just have a recent. But at times this this airs will probably have a traitor in London. He's a study for the fifty seven bullet translate into an office in London. Maybe We'd love to have a place there. Yeah. That would be cool. Yeah. Right now it's just It's going to be one trader in London but if we can find enough talent art thinking is where if we have a good team, we have a good. Per Trader that can start an office and then surround himself with talent and there is that talent pool there. Then we're interested in opposite open location. There with with with corona things are a little bit different than a lot of new offices have taken a pause right but. Overall. Yeah we'd love to have an officer. Okay and what about Australia office coming saying? Let's do it. The timeframes a little bit different and how does it work? Yeah it's it's three US markets. I tie. Trade. Mostly, Australia markets. Yeah hundred percent I. Think. I think the market I'm not sure what the the taught differences at the moment but I think it depends around about midnight here. An enclosed around six seven in the morning something like that. Depend on daylight savings, etc.. So it's definitely the graveyard shift. Yeah, exactly mostly focusing probably an Asian markets. But. again, if opportunities right and we're aligned with the right people, it makes sense and we hit it off all with them. Well, we are interested in other officers just it's gotTa make sense MOLSEM. Now just throwing in here if you're interested about the hiring process and lenny more bets, the back end of a problem, etc check out the episode I did with Marc Men Jerry obviously I'm speaking to the listeners here. Markman Jerry is co founder and partner with Mike Cats and waited podcast. tonight must be at least like six months ago I probably longer but linked to that in the show nights. So there's a lot more information around this particular topic which will pick up in that episode as well. That was a fun one. Yeah. Mark was excellent. Well we've got through all the questions. I'm actually quite surprised. There was a lot. There would definitely covered a lot of ground NAS precise throughout a think definitely hopes I Yeah that was amazing mark I really appreciate you making the time to do this and I'm sure everyone who's submitted questions in enhances be grateful as well. So yet massive thank you. It's been an absolute pleasure to have you on the podcast again and I'd love to have you back some time. It's it's always fun chatting with you and with you've created here is just amazing. They'll say it again and. Thanks for having me on and just stay safe and I wish everybody let's of health and success. Thank you and if someone wants to find out more about yourself, twitter, probably a good place to guy and maybe the seven points website would you like to share by those things? Sure. So it's a seven points capital dot com, and then my twitter handle is at Michael underscore cats one. Yep that's the one a lot of different imposters out there. So let's see at Michael Underscore cats, eleven. Yeah. Yeah. Twitter is a proper mess at the moment with these fake accounts popping up. I noticed every week is one of them popping up in these the community keeps on sending me these images of of how they're trying to extract money from that. It's just terrible and I don't think you can get that check mark anymore on on twitter I, they don't do anything. Yeah. Hell that works but I mean that would definitely help because it's not good. Main people using your nine to try and scam money out of paper lock. It's. Stodgy Jazz. Yeah. So if if anybody reaches out to you and I it you to trade night Nigerian dollars or whatever Zimbabwe money or crypto that's not us. Okay. Actually following the real the real mark. Let's call it a wrap. Thanks once again, animal chat soon. Thanks. You reach the end of this episode of Chat with traders. But rest assured there are more episodes loaded with real market insight and zero hype on the way soon. So to stay updated with each new release, subscribe to the podcast tonight's and we'd love it. If you leave a rating and review, we'll catch you next time on chat with traders.

Mike Catalyst risk manager Kodak China Mazda Bain Lotta Schwartz Darren Fifield Aaron Fifield managing partner don Galab CEO Nicole US A. Trash Detroit
Brown & Riding at IRMIs Energy Risk and Insurance Conference on Oil and Gas HSE Podcast  OGHSE105

Red Wing's Oil and Gas HSE Podcast

23:54 min | 2 years ago

Brown & Riding at IRMIs Energy Risk and Insurance Conference on Oil and Gas HSE Podcast OGHSE105

"In a global industry, where anything can happen, where mistakes can cost far more than dollars. One oil and gas sales expert, one, hey, Jesse professional and the greatest p p provider on the planet must come together to men, one brand one mission, Red Wings, oil and gas agency podcast with Marc Lacouture and Patrick Pistre starts now. Hey, everybody. This is the oil and gas, HSE podcasts fostered by red wing Red Wings the best in PP, and you want the best, because we want everyone to go home safe every day. I'm your host Russell Stewart. This is our second final day in Houston, where at the energy risk and insurance conference. You may have already heard our podcast where we interviewed yesterday's. Keynote speaker Daniel Wagner. We talked about geopolitics cyber risk and a as released HSE today. We'll be talking to an insurance expert Jeff Hubbard who has extensive experience in dealing with environmental exposures arising from cyber intrusions. We're at the but I is conference is being sponsored by the international risk management institute. That's I R M I R army as it's called, and we're joined by its executive vice president and chief content officer, Joel Applebaum. Joe, thanks for coming in. Oh, you're welcome. Glad to be here. I've face made for podcast, you and me both now wanted to have you on. I for just a few minutes before we get to Jeff, because while this show, is specifically targeted in the oil and gas industry to be concerned with health safety, and the environment, always say that we should all be concerned about health safety and the environment. So this shows really for everyone and army offers an opportunity that I want you to tell us about for all in gas folks to perhaps expand their horizons. In fact, I want to set it up by telling you about something that happened yesterday in the networking our last night. I met a friend of mine, who's a small operator, and I said, what? Are you doing here? He said, well, he said, you know, I was the drill and manager for for years and years at my company, then they may be the operations manager, then the owner of the company retired and guess what they said. Now you're the risk manager. He said, I don't know anything about insurance and risk management. So I heard about this army outfit and I want you to he said, I'm, I'm gonna take this this program, and they said when I get through this program, I'll be golden. So tell us tell us about this certification. Ebb -solutely. It's my pleasure. So the energy risk and insurance specialist certification is really continuing education program developed by army to help people feel really confident about procuring coverages for the specifically for the energy industry. So, you know, it's five courses you can take them in any way you like on the web in person. So. We offer both ways to take the courses. And, you know, I feel you know, they're designed to be, you know, unbiased evaluations of the coverages that you need. But also the risks that you face as a in the energy industry, especially oil and gas. And once you've taken the courses as a requirement for ongoing continuing education, which you can get at this conference by coming here by networking by attending the classes by specialists and experts like one of our own guests. Here we can, you know, you can make sure that you continue to develop and learn and build your network around energy oil and gas. Okay. If you want to get more information on how you sign up for this, or you can go to Ernie dot com. Look under our certifications and sign up, right there. One of the one of the best ways. And what's the certification actually called? It is called the energy risk and insurance specialist. We call it. Heiress heiress. Okay. All right. We'll, we'll probably will will post the army website on the. Show notes. We'll put heiress on there. And if folks wanted to get in touch with you to find out more about army, or, or that sort of thing, what's the best way for them to get in touch with you. You can reach out to, you know, Ernie dot com put comments on there, and I make my phone number and available, and my Email addresses, Joel J. O E L bat, a at Ernie dot com. So to me directly. All right. We'll put that on the show nuts, too. Great. I we really appreciate it. And we appreciate army for leading his come here and do these podcasts. You're welcome to stay as I talked to Jeff. I know you're busy with this conference. So if you need to leave in the Ness fine, too. So now we turn to pollution, liability insurance expert, Jeff Hubbard good afternoon. Is that a proper way to introduce you Jack of all trades master done? So, yeah. That works just as well as anything else. Well, some folks may be wondering and why we would have a pollution liability insurance expert on HSE podcast. But you actually did a presentation yesterday about cyber security and have relates to pollution issues. So let's talk about that. Sure. Sure the basis of the conversation yesterday was really to begin to get people to think about the change in how cyber risk is changing from what used to be the single perpetrator kind of set in the bottom of his of his basement living in his mom and dad's house getting into your system, asking you for a hundred bucks, unlock your computer to a much more wide ranging geopolitical potential effect. It's of course. They're still the, the individuals who want to hack want to get in and try to make quick money. But more importantly, cyber risks are becoming the weapon of nation states, and the way that our infrastructure is set up with respect to energy. We have. Done to us what's referred to as smart devices also referred to as I t the industrial internet of things, which means we have smart devices that take place in the oilfield on the well, heads skater systems, pompous pipelines, smart devices include smart grids, as well as smart meters. And if you think about the way your meter is read at your at your home. It's no longer somebody coming and actually getting out of a truck walking to your meter looking at the numbers. It's a guy in vehicle that drives down your street and collect data. So the bad guys can essentially do the same thing any person that thinks that a hacker is just some lowlife that, that has no skills. That is lazy as really misreading the back guys. These guys are extremely brilliant. They're, they're very motivated. And they can and do develop technology. To go in and steal that information with nothing more than just driving down the street. So that's really affected the way we have to view the terrorist writ risk, and the cyber risk in energy. Because these guys now have the opportunity through nation states. They have the opportunity to shutdown field or from the our mental perspective. It's not so much shutting down a field or shutting down a pipeline over-pressuring pipeline. It's over-pressuring vessel at a refinery, which can be used to create a cataclysmic environmental loss. So the HSE guy, thanks cyber security is an IT issue, but it's really a safety and environmental issue. It's a broad ranging issue the way we finished up the presentation yesterday. And it was really more of a discussion was getting people to begin to think about the fact that we have to work together. It's industry. It's insurance. It's IT inside and outside the organization. It's environmental health and safety, because while the IT guy knows what happens if somebody hacks, into a lacked unit Mila west Texas. And at what kind of unit is that a lacked unit is basically a unit that is used to quickly it's done by a card system where you deposit crude oil or remove crude oil, that's taken to market, its unmanned. So it's generally done by card lock essentially as a swipe card, and then the data as far as the amount of oil in the tank, the amount of oil taken out of the tank, that's all fed back to the company through wireless through our technologies Lear sulpha that is a weak link effectively, because just like we can get hold of that information. And it gets reported back to the company a hacker can break through that network. And if they so choose, they can turn on the pumps at that lack unit and empty the entire contents of the tank, that's purely within their their abilities. So what measures are people turning to protect themselves against this sort of thing? The first thing is you have to have robust systems and you have to have robust. Firewalls, you have to have the series of systems that make it more difficult for somebody to get into your system. What we try to we try to tell people to think about the risk of your own home nowadays. Hackers that get into your home network. Many times they don't go through your general router. They try to utilize things like nest thermostats or Alexa, or Google home to get into your system. So as a corporation, we I have to build very tight networks, that account for not only the main systems, but all of these para hillians at attached to it to make sure that there's no point of entry beyond just the, the main computer system. You have to educate, folks, people that are sitting at your desk, handling accounts, payable perceive. A bowls to the local assistant who's just working on behalf of an executive. She has the ability or he has the ability to click on a an Email, and give the hacker access as well as, as an engineer, or he h s person it's very easy to get in. So we have to build robust systems we have to educate our employees, so they understand the risk, and they understand had dinner by the risk. And then we also have to look at the concepts of insurance insurance is there to fix what's broken. But the best path is always to prevent right, right. Those are the primary things we look at as far as how to deal with the threat, you know, talking about the threat, I was in, in one of your presentations, yesterday and someone told the story about some CEO where they actually hacked him through his toaster. Correct. It's in. Oh, you always wonder why do you need to you need to host her attached to your home network? I still think we have an answer for that. But when you look at it, and you look at it from an industry level, those same kind of examples exist. We, we all as industry have our toasters that are attached to our networks. And the reality is, when you look back at it tickly, if that's the input that the point that hacker gets into are you think why in the world that I need to tact, my network, right? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but it certainly makes you more vulnerable. While, you know, you, I guess you handle the claim told another interesting story where hackers got into the network. Work and messed up. Everybody's royalty payments held him for ransom on that or right? Right. You know, the one thing in our business, particularly on expiration production ever elti interest holders, and the royalty interest holders expect their checks. In this particular case, the hacker got in and shut down their systems so they couldn't issue royalty checks, the only way to resolve the issue was to pay the ransom. And at that point, the hacker, gladly open up the system and let you write royalty checks. So the company has a dilemma at that point, do they try to figure it out themselves and delay their role checks for two weeks. Thirty days have to begin to deal with very irritated royalty interest holders, or do they simply write a check to the hacker in letting open up his system, in this particular case, they've paid the ransom and moved on understand why they would do that because they felt like that was the path least resistance and had to get back online. But by the same token, every time you get into that you're also creating the next opportunity for that hacker. He got what he wanted and he's not gonna stop until he doesn't get what he wants. So just cure. Was there insurance coverage for that? That's not something uncommon on. Terribly. Sorry. No. You'll just have to decide for yourself. Can you get injures coverage for that? Okay. Very robust market. Now, cyber liability policies come in various shapes and sizes. The one thing you always have to be wary of is no policies the same. So wording is extremely important. You have to read the policy, whether you're in the environmental Rena, or the, the cyber arena. The one thing we tell clients consistently is read your policy. Okay, but, but I've seen insurance policies the written by lawyers and they, you know, they're in like six point font in their forty pages. You know. So do you really expect me to read my policy? That's why you employ a good broker and a good agent. The reality is your insurance, broker your insurance agent should be doing that on your behalf and should be boiling it down to more layman terms. That you understand. So you understand the risks that you're continuing to assume even under that policy. What's insured? What's not sent off insured and what you need to do in a victim of claim. Okay. So that's so, so what you should do is, is you should ask your broker. Have they read them read the policy today? No, the policy, and I guess what you just kinda outlined here. You should have maybe a list of questions that you ask your broker in. Oh, does it do this, does it do that? Or maybe what it doesn't do what the exclusions are. Yeah. I mean, you, you always want to be an informed consumer so understand what your policy doesn't doesn't do what we suggest is take the time internally to sit down with your finance, folks, your H, NS, folks, your IT folks, and ask the question what happens if? Because each one of those constituencies, will have a different answer IT will have a different answer as to what happens if they have a cyber attack versus finance, because finance views it from a completely monetary perspective is going to have you it from a health and safety, and environmental impact, and IT is going to go view it from houses deal with my computer system. What am I going to have to rebuild was gonna take get back online? So I start with those internal groups because that's your constituency, and then take those questions and those comments to your insurance, broker and start asking the questions does this policy respond to X doesn't respond to why so that you become an informed consumer, and also you can go back and answer those questions for all your constituencies. You can tell finance. Yes. Our policy will respond to. To what you were concerned about and actually good broker should actually, be also telling you what you need to be concerned about on the IT side, or on HSE side, or on the, you know, absolutely the, the carrier and the broker should have a vast amount of knowledge, as far as what claims look like in this, this arena of what the risks are in this arena, so that they can articulate some of things they've seen on the carrier side, the carriers who are in this space. They see the claims they know what's happening. They know what the newest trends are, they know what the newest viruses are? They can be great sources of information and a huge help the designing a program that really works for you, and your company ever known you have to ask, but many brokers agents will be more than happy to give you input and bring in a carrier. That has a good robust program. Maybe they had their own cyber experts. Maybe have their own cyber response teams, don't make those vailable to eat. Those are fantastic. People talk number one, they're actually incredibly interesting for an insurance person, but they've seen it, they've done it. They've lived it so they can tell you what happens in real life. And I might add, Jeff, you're, you're the expert and all his you're actually the guy behind the brokers, and in those, you're not selling directly to the to the consumer anything, you're actually helping the brokers on these things. Correct, correct. Okay. We are technical experts are our firm is a series of technical experts. Whether it be cyber environmental construction. There's a number different verticals and our firm, but we do not focus on, just general risk. We focus on very specific classes of risk. And we are each technical experts in our. Specific tower of risk mine of courses environmental, and with that comes the cyber risk associated with environmental loss. So how long have you been doing that since before? God created dirty I joined the insurance industry in nineteen ninety started out in risk management. That's where I cut my teeth on bar, mental, so in nineteen ninety you work cutting your teeth on environmental it. I'm trying to figure out because environmental really wasn't an issue in the own gas industry for a long, long time. No, no. It wasn't. But I actually went to work for a company that manufactured plumbing supplies, whether it was a, a porcelain toilet or a cast aren't saying or a gas valve. So we had our own set of issues. And I got there very early my career. My boss said we have an issue with the EPA go. See if we have coverage, you're all our policies. So that was my first experience environment. Duck into environmental. Risk management. Yeah, it was pretty daunting for a young person just coming out of school, but it's been fun. So if if oaks wanna get in touch with you, what's the best way they can do that. They're certainly they can go to the Browner writing website, K, we'll post I don't show nuts. Perfect perfect. They can also on the brunt writing website is by contact information. My Email as well as my, my phone number gang. You certainly welcome to, to reach out that way. So what's most interesting claim most interesting claim pure pollution? Well, yeah. Or if you got what we don't have to stick with just one. Okay. Most. Interesting Clave in my tenure doing this was up timber fourth. I guess that would have been two thousand five it was right after Katrina came in. So I was I remember absolutely like it was yesterday September fourth is my wife's birthday. So I'm glad you. Remember that? Yeah. Thank goodness, I'm horrible dates. But so we got up, we hit it off the church or sitting in church and my phone rings and I looked down at my phone and it's the risk manager for this this entity. And I thought, wow he never calls me particularly weekend. And so I just hit ignore. Thirty seconds later. The phone rings again. It's the same risk manager of okay? Something something something not good. You're right. So I step outside answer the phone risk managers. First words out of his mouth were we have a problem? And unfortunately they had had an issue related to Katrina it was a very significant issue. So I got to spend my wife's birthday basically making phone calls to insurance adjusters to insurance carriers. Trying to get them mobilized into south Louisiana to begin to deal with the issue. So was it a pollution claim will? Yes, it was. Okay. All right. Eight made for a fun day. But also made for a very irritated spouse. When I got home. Well, we're winding this thing down since this is an HSE show. We always try to have what we call the red wing safety tip of the week. Anything that company entity coulda done to have mitigated that problem or we just, you know, there's just some things you can't can't do anything about that. You know, sometimes God just decides begun. And in this case, I'm not sure a whole lot of could have been done about Katrina wasn't a significant event that hopefully never happens again. So I can't say there was a whole lot to be done in this particular case. But what we tell clients every day is just pay attention to your surroundings. If you have storage tanks, if you have pipelines be mindful of the maintenance, don't put it off. What you spend in maintenance front. You'll save on the back end with respect claims, though, just work hard at the maintenance and Dell help you on the back end, and you'll protect people annual tech. Tech the environment. Correct. That's that's great. That's a great safety tip. Hey, everyone. We're going to post these links so you can get a hold of army, or you can get a hold of Jeff. We're gonna also post a link to the show notes all and gas global network dot com slash events. So you can find out about oil and gas happenings. That might be interest to you. Please help us out and support the show by leaving us a good review on at tens and as Jeff said be safe out there, folks. You know, remember those famous last words, what does this, but do and be cautious careful and never be complaining, actually. Thank you. Of next week for another exciting episode of Red Wings, oil and gas. Hey chessy podcast a production of the global oil and gas network urine. More from Marc Lacorte at modal point dot com. Connect with Patrick Pistre at lean oilfield dot com. From Houston to, to do. And.

HSE Jeff Hubbard risk manager Houston Ernie dot com Patrick Pistre Katrina operations manager Russell Stewart Daniel Wagner Joe Joel Applebaum
The Traders Journey: Sacrifice

The Trader Cobb Crypto Podcast

10:45 min | 1 year ago

The Traders Journey: Sacrifice

"The show is proudly sponsored by trying to call dot com. The leaders in checklist based trading strategy. Yes that's exactly how it sounds. I'll teach you a literal checklist so you can take off autumns and be decisive very quickly. Get across to try to cobb dot com where there's a bunch of free content there. You'd have a look at and of course if you're interested didn't having may come to your city. Click register for the live events coming up and feeling fast have a great day visit. Try to call dot com now. Get everybody. Welcome the traffic of cryptos show today. I'm going to start a new series. The series is gonna be called a traitor. His journey and what i want to do is basically been thinking a lot about all the little things things that <hes>. I guess you have to go through. I want to give you a step by step. As some of the experiences some of the mistake some of the lessons that i've sort of bain through over the span of my twelve years trading of course obey some lessons and bits and pieces of threatening from way back when i first started investing and having interesting marcus when all sixteen when i got blown out lost money and you know i sort of understanding of how important risk manager was. I want to share with you. <hes> this series series a trade is journey trying to help you to understand what's to come all sorts. Just swallow some of the things you probably going through to understand that it's normal. There's a lot of things things are very difficult. When you're trading your mindset. He's one of them. Finding the right strategies is another finding someone to work with another keeping your cool under pressure russia. There's another one that there are so many of them. Today's that i wanna touch on day is sacrifice. <hes> you know it's it's probably early no surprise to any of you. That sacrifice is a ingredient to being a winner to being successful. What you sacrifice for your success ultimately shows how much want we can give up and that's the dream is gone. The end is there. If you never lose until you give up. It's it really is as simple as that. Now i can tell you a little bit more sacrifice because <hes> you know i sacrificed <hes> quite a bit of time and a bit of experience as far as travel and what not to to become good at this so my actual trading journey started in london in about two thousand six or got to london and it was <hes> ah it was it was a good a good first experience. I was twenty two twenty three twenty two <hes> i remember how old i was there and and basically i got to london shacked up with these girls with them on and we <hes> we lived in piccadilly circus. These will very lovely girls. I had lots of money indian day. <hes> had expensive tastes. We ended up spending my travel money very very quickly and needing a job. I had an interesting trading because my sort of billboard in london about how to spread bet wanted to know what spread bidding was and <hes> anyway long story short got into the market started trading now from their sacrifice really came when i realized i is sacrificed a lot of money. The guy had to travel fund but i also had a a a a business fund. If you wanna call it that i had money that i had set aside i saw to sort of do stuff with that wasn't just you know go. Potty travel the world and have fun with it was their set aside from business that i had <hes> i did a project in new support from had some money there and away i went now. I lost all that money. <hes> in the space of about i think i lost the majority of it in the first six months aunts and then went on to lose the rest of it in the next <hes> twelve months i think blew my loss account at about twelve to eighteen months. I can't remember exactly now. I sacrificed a lot of finance enhance. <hes> i sacrificed a lot of blood sweat and tees because it's very frustrating when you want to be good at something and you try and all you do is put time in and lose money of bain there. I've done that but the true sacrifice us when actually realize to myself required sacrifice driving wasn't just going to come to me. It wasn't going to be something that i'll just pick up. I realize that and from there. I started to seek the rock paper. I actually went and got a job with trading education firm. <hes> and stars learn from them. <hes> i've found the tame that was there. It was very very good. The guy who was running it wasn't so good <hes> he was enigmatic but he wasn't a very good trade up but it didn't really bother me because he was bringing people in he's tamed were fantastic the guys and gals that he he's tame with the dow very good traders so balls in there every morning and every evening all sacrificing tom at that stage because i would get a stop mushy if till nine o'clock and finished about six o'clock but i would be in there in london. It's doc in winter. It's like it's it's always doc. I was walking. The streets. Were full of like two hours. Before the sun came up with the frosted my fate it was horrible. It was hideous <hes> always affair wife from the office so as a series of buses and walking in tube and it was just pretty disgusting to be honest with you but i did it a sacrifice because the goal was there. I'd stay light as well. <hes> friends guide to pubs fans ganapati doing all sorts of things. Now i always have the weekends because of course markets on hyphen on the way traditional markets they are but i sacrifice i that time to get that experience and i sat with the try it is i learnt from the tribe as i work with the try. It is and i heard about their journeys their experiences but sacrifices acuff losses the biggest one. You can't sit back and feel entitled that you should get this. You know i it doesn't work that way. You got to put the time. You've got to put the tom leykis show oh now i did it while sol's working a full time job and you would probably do that too. Most of you will be sitting there doing a full-time job running business or whatever it is you're doing. I get that but don't let that be an excuse you know if your goals big enough and path they just winning anyway just have a crack get going. Don't stop. I get people come and get well. Look all all of this of just gotta. Do this. Gotta be fulltime. If i finished my job at this fucking finish this contract with my took turns to when i get back from hey when i get this new job when they get paid this much money and what tax comes back blah blah blah united i hear now i don't i don't know i just say it's a live at that because my voice i wanna on a site to you guys in an audience like this on the podcast rather than individually. I'm not trying to pressure anyone do anything. I'm just trying to help you to believe that you can and to give you the skills and the tools to learn now. All those excuses are exactly that excuses already care why why you do something. I'm more interested in when you commit to doing it. You know all the reasons under the the sun for you not to do the training. I want to do it but i wanted to but i'm going to do it but i want to do but i want to try but i'm sorry i don't k- i don't mean to be or sound like an asshole and that i just don't care i care about the people that <hes> the people that go i can and i will they're. They're the ones that i get my attention to more so because they're the ones that have made the sacrifice already is always sacrifice. Always you sacrifice she time to learn you sacrifice money to pay someone to learn you guys in my team that you know we had some issues over the weekend kinsey <unk> website and whatnot they sacrifice family time to help us to get back. Sacrifices need to be made and sacrifices. This is our the sacred source of success. If you think that getting up and you know becoming a great writer and being out to afford to buy yourself out of work to work when you want how you want where you want i mean that's your freedom. You know making millions of dollars on top of that. That's that's cool. That's excellent but the first thing is afraid that the whole point of me getting into this was for freedom. I wanted to do what i won't win. I want how i want it. Wherever in the world that i wanted to trading allows me to do that now i've ninety sacrifices guys you all you guys are seeing and hearing is a finished. The finished products get along. Go always learning but you sing. The polished polished product. You're saying the twelve years that the you know well ten thousand dollars of thomas put into these markets that's why when i turned up the last week and said i am bullish bitcoin and it's continued to move in that favor when i said it. I didn't care what it did because i knew what i saw. I was confident. I don't listen to anybody. Look look at anything else. I read books to better to have my mindset. He stories don't follow anybody else that i've done the time delays of sacrificed a lot i continue to sacrifice the you know from this podcast for example doing these interviews for you. Sometimes as stupid dad was missing my kid. There's a lot miss out on but i'm i'm committed to what trying to achieve here now. If you want to do that sacrifices a part of your journey. I don't wanna here and look if you've got your razor. That's cool. I get it and i appreciate the support. Don't get me wrong people who say look. I can't wait to look for but but but that's fine. I'm not putting you down on hearing. You and i appreciate the feedback was well. It tells me is you want to get involved but you've got something in your head. That's preventing you from doing it. That's like supports. There and i appreciate that but i want to help. Can you guys to understand that it's up to you to get started using saying time and time again from zig ziglar. You don't have to be great to get started but you have to get started to be great and the more time you put it off. The more you mesa right now. We've turned. We're in a bull market. We are in an uptrend waiting for opportunities for those of you who don't know how to trade right now. Now's the time to get started. Don't don't want any longer. You've already white too long as it is. If this is something you want sacrifices pile of it consider the sacrifice. Can you do the sacrifice. Can you make the sacrifice woo. You lost. Go on an easy end goal worth your wall. That's the first in the journey that i've called. <hes> i kind of remember what i call it. The truth complete tried or whatever all this way and forgotten what the bloody episode is called the tried his journey <hes> something along long does not the listened back and remember what we'll have called this because it will be a series. I will continue to add to these little snippets along the way have a great. I hope you understand this and take a lot from this series because it's designed just be what it is from where i've come from have a good day bobby. This shows proudly sponsored by try to call dot com the leaders in checklist based trading strategy. Yes that's exactly how it sounds. I'll teach you a liberal checkless or you can take off autumns and be decisive very quickly sleep. Get across to try to call dot com with as a bunch of free content their feud have gotten of course if you're interested in having me come to your city click and register for the live events events coming up and filling fast have a great day visit. Try to call dot com now.

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191: Nishant Porbanderwalla  Extreme volatilitytrading markets during a global pandemic

Chat With Traders

38:02 min | 1 year ago

191: Nishant Porbanderwalla Extreme volatilitytrading markets during a global pandemic

"This podcast is backed by friends of chat with China's coin. Flex straight up. If you're trading crypto and you don't really know about cornflakes will you mad? This is one exchange. That is hard to fault. The extensive benefits and features provided by cornflakes unmatched by many see for yourself visit coin flex dot com slash chat chat with his is also brought to with support from top step. F X Top. Step is here to assist. Folks tried that lack sufficient capital or just prefer to risk someone else's money into the top step program. Mate set profit targets within set risk primaries get funded and save fifty dollars at top step f x Dot com slash chat markets speculation and risk. This is the chat with traders podcast hosted by Aaron. Fifield TRY IS AARON. Fought FUELED HAIR. Welcome to one ninety. This is an episode to cover the extreme volatility in markets following. The recent outbreak of carnivorous. Join me is the SHUNT Porbandar Wella. Returning for a second. Time on chat with tried his and head to discuss how he's been navigating through the turmoil. Niche is a pro-trade equities try to at Kirschner trading group with will over a decade of experience behind him and just a few things. I'd like to point out before we get started by SNITCH. And I a sensitive to the fact that they are a lot of people who have been adversely impacted by this outbreak and the market downturn niches hip purely to share his insights and wisdom not to gloat about large gains. Also you finish. Speak about a scenario for how he thinks. The market could play out over the coming weeks and months. It's important to remember though. He's an intraday trader. Who's not married to any one idea? He will quickly abandoned an opinion when necessary so as usual. Nothing you here. In this episode or any episode is to be traded as financial advice. You are entirely responsible for your own trading decisions and after this episode it would be will with wall to go back and listen to one seventy. That's the first time niche was on chat with China's. But right now. Here's Elliot is compensation immediately after the. Us Close Eighteenth the march twenty twenty. Thanks for listening pretty much. The Farkas have just catching up with you. Now was just to talk about what's going on currently 'cause it's it's quite unique sorry one thing's was going to ask you about this first of all an we'll get recording now. I'm win the virus. I began spreading through China. Back in January. Did you have any four sought to imagine the nor corn effect? That's happening right now. No I think like like every other person in the United States no one did this solicitously honest on things happened in China. They won't happen audio. This one spread like this plus two thousand twenty meters early. Dial for virus Just like same. Normally in a naive taught that I tink every other person had audio. I think beat straight as at the same thing we were just like oh great. At least something has come up. It'd be some In the market because of that. And that's IT and no destroyed like China named things like that and then You know I think Game February and suddenly started big focus on on the United States in a bid a few cases Yahoo cases the a sudden panic in the stock market. Something side falling to fifty five O'Reilly locate cool. The something happening out here but it him sporting on what he action you know people you know at one thing you have to understand in this market is that people have been. God with advanced down when I say that I mean like everyone was so published met. Many of these people have not seen. What two dozen ain't like so they never the only seen the blue market and then passive investing people are. Just you know what I don't know what to buy lettuce by spy lessons by cues so like all your 401k. Or you're just bein. Facet OF INVESTING. And and you know you didn't have to bother about it because the most management acquired because democracy is going up every day every day no one bothered you know your portfolio from than percent or fifty percent of one hundred percent up and now people keep questioning me like hey man portfolios down thirty thirty five percent of what should I do. I said. Did you think about it but it was up twenty five percent norad. So you don't do anything right now or you should have done something. Then you know. That's what that people but again you know all this. I don't think I had the foresight to see something in the United States. It's very strange because even when it was beginning to spread through China the market in the US. And even strike here just was continuing to push on into all-time highs just die off to die. So I think the majority of people thought that it was going to be much better contained and as you said it's obviously caught a lot of paper with the pence down And I think that's partially the reason. Everyone was super bullish up until a few weeks ago. Yeah and that's what is different than two thousand eight right. Two Thousand Eight. We kind of sought things progress over bureau. Be Four five months you know. Things went from bad. The worst too little would is coming to an end in this case. The time period is so much shorter. Right I mean one billion all-time highs in what January February you know pretty much like I think I I think. Twenty trading days ago we were spy was at all time highs twenty trading days ago so in dash much time sort so much trillion dollars worth of stock and people. I mean I would say won't be covering their long like getting out right now saying that you know we didn't take any people in the weeks is going crazy because people are hedging a long bets instead setting stalk you know at like crazy prizes. I think today I felt the today's Veterans Day. I think seventeen so Was the first time I think I saw some buying a little bit at the end but there was a lot of panic and then some stocks have just done so badly so badly like they're like down I don't know two thousand eight levels Read anything that's the has mortgage in them right now. People don't think that that debt is the biggest problem and I feel like that will stocks like X. Y. D. I. B. in a what was it a tease you know the DVD's and all bonds and everything is just melting down bff's the preferred ETF like that's like getting killed. I made got killed back in two thousand and eight also that made sense because it was a debt crisis. But this is Tony. Indoor debt crisis watch it because you know the way America works and I was telling my friend that you know we need change. The mentality of this country of our community is that we gotta start saving money for a rainy day. You know it's like seventy five percent of American lives paycheck to paycheck now. They live paycheck to paycheck but they can always save some for the paycheck. I'm sure there's a certain amount of people that can surely do that. And now when Shit hits the fan like this you know everything just goes in disarray. You know it's like it. It becomes into a wall ending situation. Become like into the walking dead which it won't happen in level go dad bad but the future is going to be that bad and people will just like sell everything stained in. Gash in all. That's what happened in two thousand eight also. There will be good stuff to buy. Eventually they will be but I still don't think we are at the bottom right now. That's my personal view. I know I'm a day trader. Listen I'm no I'm no. Mutual Fund manager is something that I really know when the bottom is but I just feel like there's one big move left. Maybe I think once we finish all this. I think the bottom will be about fifty percent down from the top full you. What signaled ECLAIR REGIME SHIFT? Because as we've seen over the past couple of years there's been a few Nasty Selloffs But the bane reasonably short-lived. This is obviously gone much. Further and much pasta was there a point in the past. Let's say twenty dies? Which signaled a clear James? Shift to you. I think for me the Forest Hall Market Sixteen Years in this market. I've created the two thousand eight traded to flash crashes. I I've created a lot of stuff you know but I've seen to limit down. That has that's not a big deal but I've never seen the market right and I couldn't believe in a market for the first time and I was like you know what this is different. I mean this is a lot of people have to unwind their positions out there. Because you know this if the worst happens right People are going to be stuck big diamond as millions of billions and trillions of Off Passive money that stuck. So everyone's going to unload and what? I think my my biggest mistake which I did was to buy Boeing. I think I thought Boeing is untouchable. You know that's what I thought. That I get buying Boeing and get buying Boeing and I'm like non like it on maybe I should not have bought it. I mean forget started by already getting out of by blowing position. Because I'm like you know what I mean if you think about blowing right. This is the way I thought about. Applying Boeing is pretty much like the only people in this world make plans right end of the day. The world is going to become a bigger place. It's GonNa be more people in this. World is going more travel end of the day. People have to buy plans is just a normal. That's what's going to happen eventually. But that's not how the stock has been seated right now and I still have that view but the same time. I'm just like you know what this is not the time you know. Maybe that'd be a better prize a better diamond. I don't want to be in this market. You know because I mean I think I think in this market now cash is king right. I mean people like Microsoft people like apple who have like a hundred and fifty two hundred billion dollars sitting with them dip become like you know the the gods of the market right. Now listen. Listen because I guess we can get through this the people who have all leveraged like Kennel at everyone over leverage in this market right. I mean because you're in a bull market everyone. Everything is created by backs. dividend degrees. Let's let's US less less bottle money for cheap and it'll be like Mattia all those guys you know. They just all leverage themselves. That's the problem in America. As as as a whole is that we over leveraged all all our accredit. God's this and that's when Shit hits the fan we always go to extreme downtown you know and this is what happened in a ruling quick but again we're still in the state of fear right now so it's still only I don't know when this is all GonNa unwinding all a big part of performing well in these conditions. I'm sure comes down to preparedness. What are you doing to prepare? Prior to the Arpan each day you know wanting to do. Vati environment is to be flexible. You know. I think that's very important. Like don't come at three notions in Notion that you're GONNA by the market because we are down two and a half thousand points. Et doesn't mean anything. Now you just have to be flexible. Seemed to see what you see. If you like it. Then go for it to not have these preconceived notions that damn dude. You know apples to forty two thirty. Let's go buy it. You never know what's going to happen. You just have to be flexible and I think you know. I think expedients in this market has everything I feel like I mean in this year. I'm doing well because I've seen about of two thousand and eight. I've seen a big bar and I've seen flash crashes. I've seen everything that Israel does easy money in this stuff. Money Ride easy money is opera trot stuff. You know When things halted for example Dez all rhythms that trade. The open right obviously preventing halted those algorithms. We're not working right. So when something halls at the whole market was halted all all dreams are shut off. So what a stock is going to open? It was watered closed at is a is a big difference and so I start looking at those things and I'm like you know what just before the market does before the hauled happen. Unh for example. Close one seventy off the hordes opening at one fifty five. I'm like you know what spy is not opening down that much as as you know the way. Unh is doing this. Because this there was no liquidity in the market at at those hawks. Because of all of them's being shut off. Because they're not program for horse they will. They were programmed for on open on clothes program for throughout the day. After you know whatever half an Iro off the open they don't know what to do. So there's a lot of things like this which company expedient that you saw watching you know you like you know what this is what I saw. This is what I like and and there's so much craziness in the market by this. Because data's people selling things really quickly rolling fires just panic selling you buy you can buy. You could go momentum. A lot of these stocks have become shots unrestricted if someone does understand that basically if star goes down more than ten percent and for two days it becomes short-selling restricted which means that he can only buy if there's an uptick so you can only shot doesn't optic right so all. These scenarios are coming in spy. Itself has become shot sell restricted. That creates a lot of problem. Because if you WANNA shot spy it has to have an optic before you can shot it. So there's lots of stuff that's happening in the market in order just I think this is where it expedience. comes in handy because this alive now. I said to dominate. It's a once-in-a-lifetime Come back again so I don't want to say that It's unfortunate in. Our lives also always make money when things go bad mendel world is like you know crying about stuff and you'll be like. I don't know what that might be enough to anyone in our because I'm like it's feasible unethical sometimes to do it but But yeah this is extraordinary time you just have to stand up and And trade and you know put risk on because the rates have to put the risk on you know you say listen. What if you're right you'RE GONNA make three four five points if you're wrong you just have to learn to manage your getting dressed management This market is probably the biggest thing you know you just Uganda stub on Yukon. Yukon's the this is not possible. Boing can not be going to ninety dollars. Boeing cannot fall hundred and fifty points in a week. It did it just it you know and you just have to agree to it and say listen. What get out get out users. Get Him again when you think it's time but get out right now on that subject. This seems to be almost like two mindsets around trading during these conditions. There's one where it's you know. These conditions are too abnormal. It's time to dial back the risk and then there's the other mindset which is this is a very rare opportunity right now doesn't come around very often. Increasing risk is actually justified during periods. Like this how would you encourage a junior try to think out which sawed they might be leaning towards? I mean I do have a student. He is junior trader. He's only been six months. I'm like listen. This is a market where you stand up and you know you show me how you know you have the box. It doesn't mean you go and be stupid. It means you do a calculated risk right. If you see something that that you like and you take you can surely make Tragic money you go step on it. Nobody because in this market there's going to be so much fortunatus that if you're wrong you can August come back from it in a dead market like two months ago if I was down. Thirty Forty Thousand. The day is done today. I'm like listen if I'm down twenty I was out sixty yesterday and I finished the day up. Twenty you know so. It's just like in in days like this. I'm not worried about being down because I know there's enough of just come when when does not a Portuguese. That's the Dave and I'm like listen to manage even harder right now. I'm like what are you gonNa take the risk You might be wrong. But there's other places where you can be right and come back from it you know. So one of my students is doing is like he's looking at might trades and trying to emulate the same thing. And that's the way to do it. You know what I mean He's I mean stop because he's seeing the cleanness of this market very early in his career the next time he sees it. He's going to be even more aggressive and he'll stand up even more but right now he's like. Oh you know this guy is doing it so I'm just going to stand up because he's doing he knows it's right but eventually that's how you learn you know you just have to hold someone's hand and walk and soon then sought joining themselves end of the day so I so yeah so I do onto question I would say hundred just depends on concentrator. You are right. I'm Deidra I in and out of positions quickly to want to sit on positions overnight and things like that. Nah You gotTa You. GotTa be more sensible. You've got to be more. Maybe take a hedgerow things like that. I'm not my slate every day because I mean we are thousand points over down two thousand points forget up without maybe two thousand points on the Dow these days. Yeah I think. That's that's really was niche. How are you more specifically at managing risk through this like are there any rules that you are enforcing upon yourself? I said you know what I mean not to be stubborn about things in unbelievable situations on happening. How do at the same time? You're like you just have to say this what you have to cut your losses. That's something which is ingrained in me. You know. I just see Stock I stopped selling in on dislike government position. Whatever apper do I get out but I might get in again. Maybe like fifteen minutes later again. And you know The same stock again. But I don't know my mind is conditioned just like it just sixteen-year-old trading and continuously doing it. You just just comes automatically to you now you know. I don't have to think about as much but at the same time you know. I just big one wrong. Move in this market. You can get hit pretty badly so I'm just starting to double take on every day. I'm like you know what should I take this size? Yeah okay fine. Let's go do it. You know just have a second tort before I do. Sometimes you know in this market because it's such so crazy. Let me tell you one thing also right in this market. I haven't seen crazy panic yet. Yes if you've been gap down we have sold off all that but the panic of Flash crash is not been seen the panic of two thousand eight that I saw hasn't been saying senior and I feel like when that happens. That's going to be the bottom of the market or very close to the bottom of the market. And that's my personal view because it's still been utterly selling you know it hasn't been it has been a lot of selling but still been very odd audie selling in the Flash Crash. I'd bought Homedepot Seventeen eighteen points fell it in a minute Today homedepot is down. Aiding Twenty blinds. But it's down over the holidays. So you see the difference. In the quickness and the lack of liquidity that was dead in flash crashes is not it is not senior right as of right now it still does a lot of liquidity to get in get out of positions but yet there's a lot of I think Olbermann night. There's a lot more happening than it happened back. Then see feel like we haven't seen that real big volume capitulation which often signals a bottom. Come in yet. Exactly exactly we need to. I mean this is what I think. Oh this is just me is that we need to open down swoosh down and then finish higher for the day and come back and finish high for the day. Get all the shots out you know And the day that happened. I think is a Redound to the you know the the bottom of the market. I feel but has had the open. You'll fall down newsra trace back all those losses and you know. Finish up high. The day that happens I think we might be about him. When the trading day is underway with so much moving right now. How do you determine where to focus your attention? That's where Khalid come in handy and you know you have your own ticker that you program over a long period of time My my company has great tools to go and figure and find situations that are unique and my friends. You know I mean people said left and right of me all we keep talking keep saying like Hey Listen. I'M CHECKING IN CHECKING OUT THIS SYMBOL. So it's great because you know this way we have them cheap as of. Is You know watching three different things and I'm like listen God colored when you think it's going to turn and they'll call you when it's going to turn. I'm going to call it when I see something. We just keep saying symbols or no keep talking to other day. I mean. This is the hardest I've ever worked in sixteen years hottest. I have sat on my on my desk for eight. Oz for the last. I don't know fifteen sixteen days. A lunch has been ordered inside. I drink water so that I can go and be. It's just been it's just been crazy all working so hard. I mean. I've never waited for the weekend as much as we did right now because my wife was telling me the same thing she likes hold you said that. Tang God weekends you always said Oh man. I can't trade on a weekend you know so. She's also like she's like great man you you must be really tired because you actually wanting a weekend coming in a passionate today does out till you know so. It's like you just want to trade and it just it's hard to get some sleep at night and then you know at night because you're always thinking when oil fell at twenty percent when Saudi to the Tang and sold futures down about twelve thirteen hundred. I'm like Oh my God like you know what's going to happen to the night you know it's going to be limited down to the next day and you start thinking Fall Asleep and then Sunday at one thirty in the morning you wake up and you're like you know what? Let me check the futures. Check THE FUTURE DOWN. Fourteen hundred hundred locate fine. Go back to sleep in stock still thinking about trading and how you're gonNA manage the day and things like that again. You wake up at five thirty futures and you know you again started. Go to sleep number five thirty again up and I'm not GonNa what makes no sense Need to go to work and finish this day. And then you crash off for the day. Just mentally drained. Your mentally drained physically drained back a hunting. You know running a risk guard right now because I've typed in this month I must have at least fifteen twenty million shows. At least I've been attention but I'm thinking average about two or three million a day at least chat was tried as podcast is brought to you with support from top step f x the thing. You should not be top step. Is THEY ASSIST FOR X? by providing live capital while also acting as a risk manager. To of course top step is not gonNA pass at capital to anyone so I you must enter the trading combine. This is where you tried in real time on a simulated account with the goal of reaching a set profit targets within set risk parameters once. Proving that you can. Profit and importantly protect the downside. You'll earn a funded account with up to five hundred K. And Blind power from that point on. It's real money and you take a generous split. If any prophets that gener- I'd get more and far on how to get funded read reviews from rail uses and Saif fifty dollars off your first account at top step f x Dot com slash chat. This podcast is also backed by friends of chat with traders coin. Flex if you already aware conflicts Pioneers physically delivered futures on crypto currencies. That actually the world's first exchange to do it and that's one of the reasons why coin flex is of rising later among literally hundreds of exchanges out there in recent US coin flex have also cranked up the leverage China can now use up to forty x leverage on Bitcoin ethereal and Bitcoin cash contracts and still quite flex continue to offer the lowest Taika phase in Crypto. Furthermore the bracket was trading combs. A yet to end. It's a daily battle for top of the Labor Board and winnings from the prize. Post up to ten thousand Teva Nets Register for a free coin. Flex account it takes two minutes visit coin flex dot com slash chat. And by using this link you'll get reduced trading phase that's coin flex dot com slash chat. One of the things. I wanted to ask you about this We'll have is. How has your your approach outed from how you a trading earlier in the year? Like what have you done to adapt to this informant like the Siwa trading in January are presume is not the same way you trading right now. I mean. I'm sure it's probably similar in many ways but there are probably some adjustments as well. Yeah for sure. I mean it was off friend of mine yesterday and I'm like the way the stocks of four legs. I was russell trader right. So I'm looking for things going down and I'm buying them in their dining in this lock doesn't happen that often no anymore So we like it or wait in a window by things that are going down because it's different when a stock shot sell restricted Because you know it's just like sell orders coming in and they have to get done and how do you sit out when they are done? Because it's like I don't know who settled on the other end but like they come in a big size and they keep coming down down down down down down down down down you figured out. How much is left in them? And so I'm just trying to figure that out more right now That is a challenge. And that's how it was down sixty thousand other day because I was started by like the normally buy in January. And I'm like you know what things have changed. The way by now is much later. Wait Ford ultimate panic of panic. That diamond January would buy it usually but now it's like a different level of panic in your seat. The level of panic that was there in January comes much earlier in the day out here so it's a different adapter that I think today was the fullest Dick I kind of adapted to that and I felt like okay what I'm seeing things differently When things are down you know forty fifty percent Even at ten percent move after that can ruin your day. You know so you just have be supersized so I mean I'm in an out a controlling interest because I know what I'm right. It's going to be a full point. Move up so I can't give the no more than forty fifty cents. If I'm wrong anytime so trying to be is on less obviously helps but I'm just undermanaged my address condos because I know the Diamond. Would it be right? I need to be in the right size and I need to be you know I knew. Dick Prophets also because these things moved three four points so quickly. And you're like Oh my God that's amazing raise back all fifty percent in that Dante. Now it's not going to happen the way that you used to happen in January. You'd get a good replacement but slow and steady traits but now the drought is much pasta. Short-lived so those things have changed Just adding both sides to things that you know one thing. One thing that you don't enforce and learn is that when you have a bankroll we get paid every month. So let's say some up pretty good in a month right. I don't mind risking more on good situation. Do Not Make nominated twenty thousand shares. I might take in all seventy dollars. Eighty thousand shows. I'm like I'm not scared to lose money. And that only happens when you have a bank or whatever you save shoot traders have that kind of guts and kind of this. I mean do. It doesn't matter to them how much the apple down in the month and they treated the same way for me I mentally. I know that's what I am. I have enough money lying in that that Monday. I don't mind if I'm wrong. If I lose fifteen twenty thousand Up a decent amount. I try and you know be more risky. I try to push the envelope more. I press my bets a little bit more. I believe in myself more confidence automatically only comes when you're in your side being right multiple times and then you start adding to your positions more than one you believe in yourself and all of the the money comes along with their. You know so you just stopped. It's like A. It's like a an clockwork on. This works well when you when you do things right in somehow me. It's like if I'm if I'm positive is because I'm doing things right in our try not to a negative day because I changed my mind changes so it's good to know yourself you know. I think sixteen years of officiating started getting new yourself surely well. Yeah it's a long time and more specifically on this point here how you deciding on k points or maybe optimal points on where to enter and exit your your triads. It's tough it's a tough question to answer without someone sitting right next to me and me explaining what the torturous was and I've ended the street in all because so many other factors in this market that that that determine you know it's trump tweeting. It's a press. Conference is the number of That meeting New York City or is New York City on lockdown. Now San Francisco is on lockdown. You know just just so much happening even if a good set of is is there a big undertow? Bad set up because of what what happened on the news at times so I mean you just have to. You just have to say this I WANNA be in. If doesn't work out the way it is you got your losses and move on insists risk management right. Now you know it's just you know you will be right because you know the situation that that you wanna see it's about you other factors and you just have to be you know. Just be quick. I mean that's something which we are very quick without with a finger super-quick Amino we'd get in position to get oppositions Pre number. It's not like you know. Let let's buy this holded for ten fifteen minutes and then see what happens. That's put a stop. I've not been all that I'm just like in I'm like do I like I like it. Okay finding direction move onto the next set up and the way I do is I just. I just might be from from Linda's losers. Just managing my losers most of the time and then keep looking at the top of the no and I stopped putting out articles to get out on those winners so if they hit by orders great dozen. I'm still watching everything as much as possible. You multitasking man. Yeah I know that was a bit of a tricky question but I just wanted to ask it. I was interested to hear how you would on a very good man. I last question a nave done very well during this downturn automatically. What do you put it down to? What skills and abilities have enabled you to make much gains? One is obviously risk reward. I've always said that second is expediency in all honestly. Expedients is a big factor. In this. It's about you know you've seen situations you know What to see in the situations. You know how the clothes is going to behave. Just you know just also knowledge of like just everything not office. Seniors just gather knowledge of so many different parts of the market So I feel like it all risk experience I think talking to other traders around me seeing what the s seeing What they don't like sometimes join it. So the stock traders manage your risk Does does lots of just. Don't think about one side of the market Always thing that someone is buying someone selling you know someone things they are right in some of the things that wrong so know just that basic mentality in mind will wake up early. Have a clear mind to sleep well at one night. I didn't sleep at grade because drag cups of tea us that twas the whole day and I was like a jittery mess not great I did. I did good that day but I didn't like the way I feeling at all. I don't enjoy enjoy for me. I enjoyed this moments. Also like it's it's like know once in a lifetime kind of situation. I'm like sitting throughout the day. This is what I love doing. And that's the most important thing I think is that if you love trading love being in front of the market somehow you'll you know you'll do it like my student He used he used for Microsoft equipped by yourself to be a traitor because he just loves what what any and he was telling me that this is the fullest in his life. That is actually enjoyed something that he's doing so it's very important to enjoy because you will do. Well if you enjoy something I feel. Yeah aren't niche will. Now you've got to run very shortly. Sorry I'll let you guy I just wanted to take this opportunity to have a quick catch up with you in sort of discuss What's been going on as of lights? I I really appreciate you taking the Tom. Now you have a lot going on right now. It's a busy period for you. So yeah thanks again. I learned the marketing busy. It does even kids at home and life stake of both the kids so so it takes a family to to really a traitor. It doesn't sort of one man job. Takes everyone a good team around you? Thanks man. Enjoy your evening. Thanks for the call. Aaron will chat soon. Thank you thanks buddy. You've reached the end of this episode of Chat with traders but rest assured there are more episodes loaded with real market insights and zero hype on the way soon so to stay updated with each great new release. Subscribe to the podcast. Tonight's US and we'd love it if you leave a rating and review. We'll catch you next time on chat with traders.

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188: Best of Risk Management, Pt. 1

Chat With Traders

55:42 min | 1 year ago

188: Best of Risk Management, Pt. 1

"Chat with China's podcast is supported by top step. FX simply put top step is in the business funding currency traders tried is around the world who demonstrate that they can turn a profit and protect the downside allocated live capital discovered. Exactly how it works and save fifty dollars goes off your first account by visiting top step. F X DOT COM slash chat chat with tried. His podcast is is also sponsored by coin. Flex not only. Is this the first exchange to do physically delivered futures on crypto currencies coin flex also has the the lowest Taika phase on offer register for a free account. Sign up takes two minutes and no personal info required go now to coin flex dot com slash chat market speculation and risk. This is the chat with traders podcast hosted by Aaron Fifield will to episode one hundred eighty eight of chat with tried his podcast. This episode It's exactly what it says on the tin. It's a compilation episode. The Best of risk management enjoyment of sifted through interviews. I've done over the past few years and compiled some of the best bits pertaining to risk management. Once I got done though. I realize ahead too mini bits for one episode sigh of Split into two parts. This of course is part. One and part two will fall on the next episode. One of the reasons for doing this episode is to haul out some interviews from the past which he may have missed so before each snippet you'll him a nine. The guest with a very brief description and the episode number two easily get to any one of these episodes on the chat with China's website simply pension chat with trade is dot com slash the episode number. Or you can find the link in the shy nights of this episode at Chat with China's dot com slash one night first stop is Andy. Kirshner with a clip taken from episode. One hundred twenty eight. And he's active stock trader and the founder of Kirschner trading in group at proprietary trading firm with offices in Austin Texas and midtown Manhattan. Big Mistakes that I've made the biggest ones that I typically may one of my strengths as that I can hold loss of pain in. I can hold winners for a long time. They also my biggest weakness. which is you know a lot of times? I'll be up. I might get up twenty percent on a swing trade or something like that and not. It hasn't quite hit my targets. I don't have a sometimes if I'm not a little bit more structured on. Hey how I need to capture prophet or if it doesn't work out exactly as I intend in how do I work my way out of this trade and so sometimes I will hold onto long gift. Things let them come back to far and so you know a couple years ago turn to a couple of million dollar trade into a couple of million dollar loss. No across a number of different stocks in that hurts and it just gets you psychology all messed up and anyway I still have troubles with that from time to time and I just have to journal about it and make sure that I'm a little bit more focused on making sure I have a real structure in if things aren't going exactly as I need to. How am I going to scale down right? So that ability to take a lot of pine on positions can be a positive and disadvantage. I mean is that something you have always been able to do or or is that something. That's you've been able to get better at or is become more acceptable to you over time. I think I'm all I've always been overconfident. And the numbers big numbers. Don't bother me so you grow into it and it just recently this this year upset next to really good traitor. That's traded really big. And so I'm trying a lot bigger because of it And so them having to change my psychology around and also tactics around how so I'm trying to capture trade and you know how do you handle stops when you're even lots more shares and those types of things hell important think. I think it is to to have that skill of being able to take you know a bit of hate on a position and withhold the pine win when positions moving against you like I felt that this is probably a quote A. K.. Element to your success as a traitor. You know I don't I don't know if it is or isn't you think it's one part of it. I mean I think it's it's it's more helpful to kind of trade according to your psychology. If you if you have something that really works twelve for you and you can repeat it lots of times then you should focus on that and make sure that you know finding edge and really make sure that it works for you and then see how big you can do it without affecting the way that you trade you know the best traders are the ones that that can trade fifty thousand one hundred thousand years like they trade thousand chairs and not change. They're not change a decision making process for the most part. If if you're GONNA sit in the seat all day you might as well be doing some some size so even when you get into position. How do you determine when you get? When you're actually going to cut your losses like do you have a predetermined timid point with the economy failed out as you guy usually now all I am lettering into positions and lettering out of physicians? And I get more of a feel for how things are going to happen but I usually am trying to you know. Get into okay okay. I'M GONNA risk a point point and a half on this trade. You know kind of worst case and I think I can make three and a half or four you know in what what an odd you know. I'll probably have a fifty fifty chance on something like that. Sometimes you may add into something and that feels like. It's really got some support in here so I may triple all my size and go. Well I'm only GONNA risk and other thirty cents on this particular her name from this spot on triple the size. But the risk reward went from Gone against me but it seems to be having some support risk reward is now not one to three or three to one. It's more like ten to one and and so I don't mind getting in a lot bigger right here even though my odds are a little bit less because it hasn't worked for me thus far but I still have I mean the chances of the trade and working are less I may only be a thirty percent chance that it works but if it does it's going to be ten to one winner in so I modify what if I'm on behavior around that at times now just want to take a step back to comment. You made to a couple of questions guy you know when I said that your ability to be out of hike a lot of pine on a position is probably Ban Ki Element to your success. And you weren't sure if it is. Do you think the try try is who maybe have a lower risk tolerance make less money though no not necessarily not at all there's there's lots of different styles That worked people some people are scalpers and people are swing traders. Some people only like to do things that are set up where they're going to win. You know seventy or eighty percent of the time so you can be very successful and you can accomplish whatever your goals are in lots of different ways. I mean you can be a computer genius and writes a model so we got a bunch of guys here doing quantitatively. So there's you know I I asked somebody want Who ran a real big firm? Hundreds of traders said WHO's your best Raider and he looked at me and said I don't have a best traitor. You know best writer in what you know the best trader that's short seller in this in this particular market the best semiconductor traitor the best swing trader. The best an end so matching up your psychology with the types of trading that you're willing to do types of risk that you're willing to take makes a big difference in you know it really has helped to discover what that is and then you have to really make sure you have all the right habits around two or you journaling. Are you doing. Are you preparing you know. Could I can tell you my exact strategy today when you could tell me yours and unless I did all the work around it I'd be only only twenty percent of is good. You are at it and probably the same thing for you. So it's much less about the strategy and much more about are you doing doing all the right habits and preparation journaling review using the technology preparedness next stop trading legend and market wise at Blair. How on episode eighty five Blair was a serious blackjack? Plaid during the seventies and in nineteen ninety five he founded options trading trading firm. How trading and ninety nine Goldman Sachs acquired? How trading the slightly more than half a billion dollars? Okay and if you had to summarize it for us why blackjack help you to prepare for trading and why we actually you kind of answered that I was GonNa GonNa ask you. Why were you attracted to options markets? Either other types of markets. Well the BLACKJACK Gotcha in any kind of a game any kind of game whether it's a gambling or investing or whatever. Call it the two things you need. Do you need an advantage in then. You need to stay in the game and what Blackjack taught me is that I had to bet in proportion to my bankroll I had bed in proportion to my advantage if I had up a big advantage I can bet or money but never more than one. Fiftieth Fiftieth my bankroll. So if I had one hundred dollars I could never bet more than two dollars. So that's a pretty good rule you think about you're going to go to the casino us and you have ten thousand dollars a most. You can bet two hundred dollars or you will ruin you. Risk risk ruin. You could risk losing all your money so when you when you're playing a game whether it be trading or blackjack and you lose half your money you have to cut your bets in half and most people would try to go. They tried to get even. But you have to do the opposite. So I'd say stain and the game aim was the most important thing that I learned in fact I You mentioned. CDI actually started on the Pacific Stock Exchange. Where at least a seat for five hundred dollars a month? But I would go around and I'd have there would be an option that would be the all public we're going after this option and I had had it worse according to my model of say twenty five cents and it was selling for a dollar and so I'd sold maybe two hundred of these options and I run around and say oh that's such a juicy bet and then I'd say I look at I look at the price again out to sell more of those nights eight. I've already have that bet on the table. I envisioned a a stack of chips ch and so I couldn't so I I wouldn't over bet over abetting the thing that kills you in any kind of game you can have a winning strategy but because of the way in which you wager you can almost stood guaranteed to go broke. That's that's important as to whether you have an advantage and how much you bet is important of getting is getting an advantage. This next snippet is from episode. Eighty two how to become the trial. You wish you were with more ad. I futures try to seventy one. Do you have any any tips. In point is how to properly manage periods of drawdown or periods of losing losing trades on a run of loses. And you just really feel like nothing can guy roy kind of hit on it there with you know knocking attached to the outcome. But how should attr- right a properly manage a draw Dan and maybe if you could touch on the risk management aspect of that as well okay. That's a really big part of staying in the game so I could tell you in my career I've I've gone through rough patches every single year that I've been a traitor if anybody has ever told you that they come in and make huge money every day of the year every year. Then you'LL WANNA check that traders credentials. The fact is most of the money is made in a short period of time short segment of the year. The rest of the year is simply staying afoot with the market so that when that opportunity comes to push for example the China correction in August. The big drop you had to you had to have been in the market and consistently in the market following the same routine all all the time to be able to participate in that in any meaningful way and part of the process of having a few short weeks of really really good. Good trades good returns A lot of weeks of just grinding along kind of making a living just like everybody else. But then there's also that rough patch we call it the rough patch. I've had rough patches that have lasting were from two weeks to ten ten weeks and they come and go with time and most of the time they simply force me to go back to you know go back to stage three of of competence where we what we would call conscious. Competence in other words consciously deliberately Focus Kozly following some sort of a plan or original plan or a modified plan to suit the current market conditions. And so the way to manage manage rough patches is to have an understanding of one one has occurred and no way you know one has occurred is to is to look at the streaks that you have and this is again the conversations always going to go back to really good record keeping and you're running a business just imagine you're running a bakery or an auto dealership or something. It would be crazy to think that you're selling something or you're running a business without some really accurate. Bookkeeping trading is a business and bookkeeping is a huge part of this business. So you can always go back and understand that okay. Okay I recognize a losing streak as for me. A losing streak is four consecutive down days in a row and and I'm I'm speaking about consecutive down days where I'm actually doing what I'm supposed to do. As opposed to going off the handle and starting according to fight the market or something does don't count as consecutive down days. It just counts as me being emotional stupid which means I need time off. And that's what I forced myself have to do is just to detach just move away. But if I have four down days and I'm following my plan that tells me that something has dramatically changed aged and so my response to that is to. I'll go into how managing risk through this process. My response to that is to simply take the following being day off the probability of being down four days in a row is what zero point five which is a a fifty percent probability of losing to the power of for four. So there's a six and a quarter percent chance that I would have four losing days in a row so it's like flipping heads four times in a row so it's zero point five to the power four or six point two five percent. I know that for me to hit that kind of probability that's almost two sigma or the second standard deviation. I wait wait. I'll back off the statistics a little bit but for me to hit that. It's pretty hard for me to hit three down days in a row nets down days mean. I'm down on my panel plus my cost plus my daily F- fixed costs rent software. All that stuff broken down on on a daily basis the fifth day. I'm off I'm not trading the fifth day the fifth days me watching the market doing the homework and everything watching the market and spending the day just going through trades from the past just running through what has happened pulling up higher timeframe charts and really trying to see the goal is to see. Has something changed dramatically enough in the market to tell me that something's wrong. In fact last week was one of these weeks where the market was dramatically unusual. We had several days where the market gapped up in a row gapped up up and never closed the gap and it just continued in the same direction. that's unusual behavior. I didn't I didn't have a draw down your nappy head. Hit during that streak but it tells me that something. Hey Be careful. Something has changed. How do I manage the losses or the risk intra-day I use a regressive risk strategy and so let's say just for relevance Sake? Let's say that I generally trade ten lots in the ES okay. And if I start out the day and I'm trading ten lots and I take a trade and I take a loss and my loss my daily loss limit. Let's say is two thousand dollars or three thousand. Let's call it three thousand one dollars per day. Okay which means that. My average update needs to be around three thousand dollars per day for me to stay in business in the long term. If I reach a third of the way down than I am cutting my size to six contracts if I get halfway to three thousand dollars down that I'm only trading five if I get three quarters of the way down the training to continue to trade to contracts until I hit the limit and that's very rare that I hit that loss limit the daily loss limit but I want to hit my daily loss limit with the minimum size possible. Now that's not possible for trading one contract You know in the future or a small share share size Inequities but my goal is not to make back the fifteen fifteen hundred dollars that I've lost this morning or the twenty five hundred dollars or whatever. But that's not my goal my focus is not the PL. It really isn't took took me a long time to actually be able to accomplish that. But my goal is to find my alignment with the market. I'm going to repeat that my goal is not to make the money back. My goal is to find my land met with the market in other words. Get in the zone and get in gear with the market to find that way to be able to recognize that wave. That's coming in to be able to paddle my surfboard on top of it and to to finally stand and ride that wave back to shore. That's my goal and I'm not going to be able to do that. By insisting on trading ten lots ten lots ten sandlots taking losses and then boom five losses five trades on a ten lot. And I'm out three thousand dollars and I have to stop for the day. That's not going to help help me. What I WANNA do is hit that three thousand three thousand dollar loss limit with my smallest size possible? Because if I can't can't accomplish that get with two contracts to where I can find my linemen and start building my account backup with a series of really good positive traits. Then I'm not putting in a M- not giving myself enough sample size or enough samples of trades to be able to find that alignment so imagine the opposite. Imagine if you ha- you traded ten lots and you have a three thousand dollar limit for the day before you have to stop for the day. Imagine if I go halfway through and I lose fifteen hundred dollars and all of a sudden I put on Twenty Loch Trade and that twenty lot trade wipes away the rest of the fifteen hundred dollars K so out of the three thousand dollars I have gotten. I was able to participate in the market. Twice with two traits. To trades is not nearly enough to show me that my something's wrong or my plan doesn't have an edge. My goal is to maximize it. If I'M GONNA give away three thousand dollars I need to do it with a large as large number of trade this possible because what happens is eventually if I if I start to find what the market is looking to do. I start to find alignment Lineman and as I cross if I get down from zero to fifteen hundred to two thousand five hundred twenty eight hundred dollars and all of a sudden I find myself from twenty eight hundred dollars down onto contracts. I start to come up to two thousand dollars. Okay back to four contracts I get down fifteen hundred dollars Up to six contracts or five contracts now have alignment and now I can start building that position backup. I have the confidence to push those trades or to take take the trades that are paying off. I've found the edge again and I'm building backup and to me every other way I've tried for myself I self. My traders has not worked. I've had traders use a constant you know doesn't matter how far you're down. Just keep trading the same size book and most of the time they just they just limit out for the day and you know the council locked and our dump for the day what I do is I regress. Yes I I look for a regression and the amount I'm trading and my goal is to create as many opportunities to read the market to trade the market and read the market as possible. And I know that most people don't do that but that if I hit three days in a row on on limits using that method something is dramatically going wrong it really is and if you're trading one or two lots just start out with your to lots halfway to your limit. Let's say your limits. You know six hundred dollars. You've lost three hundred dollars on your to lots switch to one lots and get really picky about your trades. Just fine the traits that you are most confident in that you have. The highest probability is on and end steak. Your one lot on that and it should give you about four trades before you lose the entire amount which you don't want to do is take your to law trade loose six hundred dollars on one trade for the day and that is a that is a very binary way to lose money and my intent always isn't trading is to get the most to make the market work as hard as possible to take my money away if it will take money away and it often does But I want to do it on as many trades as possible. I WANNA do fighting not the market but I want to do it fighting the probabilities. ODY's fighting the negative probability. Finding that positive probability the alignment with the market. I hope that makes sense next from episode at One hundred and twenty two doug safer the CO founder and C. E. R. of the chief financial. Sorry the color of Nhl Tame mm-hmm Forida Panthers Virtue Without question is one of today's most dominant electronic market making firms trading millions of times everyday across hundreds of markets. How you describe it as a sky business? I think that's very cool and one of the reasons you're able to do that is because you very good risk controls and your ability to manage risk on the counter to that what are some of the what sort of potential risks affirm virtue could be vulnerable to. Well look I mean. There's obviously we can't believe our own bs right there. We're connected to a lot of different venues around around the world. I don't want to insult anybody. But robot work was subject to the lowest common denominator technology in the world right the trading world and so when we put out we put out bids and offers. That's real risk right. I mean we trade a lot for a million times a day. You can only imagine how many orders are putting out there right. It's multiples of that. Many many many multiples of that and so so we have to be very cognizant of the acknowledgement if you will in the management of those orders in a way that is that is seamless and human beings have to do that. You cannot rely on you know technology allowed to do that because humans gonNA react and say hey we put out this order. We haven't we haven't seen it or on the contrary you can have the situation where you know your algorithm screwing up it keeps its MSRP something. It keeps sending an order on one side of the book. You know. It's lost a lot of money. He's made too much money. It's not designed to make a lot out of money. Maybe it's missed mid price spread and so we're very cognizant of that and we've sacrificed Latency by having a lot of pre-trade risk controls but we also have a lot of what I would say are real time post trade risk controls where we're doing real time house versus St reconciliations to manage that risk again. I come back to when you have a singular mission in a posting bids and offers when you have a single platform McHugh will a single engine that is multi asset class multi-currency which virtuous when you don't have pods you don't have you know trading eating pods. It's really just one open environment where everybody kind of collaborates and sees in a kind of wear what's affirm trading and what the reaction times are and whatnot. You know that will mitigate the risk at the end of the day. Look you know we. We can't believe on press clippings right. We spent a lot of time in a lot of money. Always trying to improve. ooh and Hubris is a horrible horrible vice in so we always live by the Credo the there but the grace of God go I so risk controls are really really important here and when you own and operate and manage very large integrated technology firm like we all do. We have to be really vigilant to ensure that so you know. We don't have material losses chat with tried his podcast. It's sponsored by the exchange coin. Flex if you are trading crypto. Then you've got to pay attention to coin flex because these folks of really doing things the incentives to trade on coin flex a massive physically delivered futures contracts with up to twenty x leverage. The lowest phase offered in Crip dark rewards Affleck's coin when ever taking the quantity a slake web based trading platform. That looks with Real Nice. And Ultra low latency. APR anyone running owl goes and the incentives are only ramped up further with the current bracket woes. WHO's trading comp take part join trade is battling it out for a total prize pool of one hundred thousand register for a free free account at coin flex dot com slash chat sign up? Takes two minutes. No personal invite required Goto coin coin flex dot com slash chat. Oh sorry if you're curious about the papal behind coin flex guy check out my recent interview with car found a pseudo aroma gum on episode one hundred and eighty six chat with tried is so supported by top step FX who is planning simply in the business of funding currency traders. I try to must demonstrate that. They can intern prophet and protect the downside. Keeping within a few defined risk parameters wants to try to receives an allocation of live capital top. Step then Biz. Any losses occurred and splits any prophets and the split his boss. It's on par. With what many proper firms offer whatever your situation Russian bit undercapitalized in native hard and fast risk controls to protect yourself or psychologically maybe you'd benefit from risking someone else's capital explore. What top step ethics has to offer? Discover exactly how it works and save fifty dollars off your first account by visiting top step F x Dot com slash chat again photos at top step f x Dot com slash. Chat in this next bit sewn up from episode. Seventy six soul is a spread trader and former risk manager who would oversee approximately take one hundred and twenty futures traders at a London trading firm with any specific risk parameters or roles that you would not budge Joan in order to protect the firm's capital and of course the traitor. Yeah enormous stop socialize. If I'm stuck in traffic lot system so to try to with a gray of prayed Incisa could try it and the maximum needed. Many hats tried that maximal the time if they'd be could you tried up to an agreed size if he had they said for example This is one thousand pounds stop loss for the die and he got to say four hundred under pounds down. I would approachable skype him. All not the silicone. See Him just say you know you're four percent of the whites who stop when you say Asian forbid maybe his back so that would be the first warning that with the first point of contact and the name if he if he joins more trouble. Maybe so six fifty seven hundred pounds down a garbage Suggest the BRYK Gaddi positions. Pull your oldest. WHO's they had vertigo? Bid and deputy cut your size now until you gave back fifty percent of your money back and then they go to their stop on the Diet and that was pretty much now anytime I would have a badge on the radio. Absurd market. Move with something unbelievable would happen and they go co instantly on a blip and I'd go stops out on my let them try it again after that a brake on reduced size. And we've really so I still for the the rest of the guys. That bag coming up now is an exit from Dan. Shapiro on episode sixty six. Dan's in equities sky. He mostly tried tied names now is he just tries for himself though he came up as a New York. City prop trader and fun. Fact he funded his I. I tried to count by borrowing money from a loan shark at the end of the day. Or however often you do this. How do you reflect on your trades ads and review or judge your performance repression? I do it once a month. I look at my sheets once a month. Okay I fully expect respect and and I wanna I wanNA make I see this all the time on on social media. Stay humble right you hit it all the time. Stay humble put your head down. Uh Smile and stay humble because the market will humbly. That's all true. Okay here's the here's here's something that I completely disagree was okay. I think you have to. It'd be a good person in life. Okay I think you have to be a humble person. I think when you're a traitor. You have to have a God complex. You have to believe I believe you could walk on water. You believe that. The person on the other side of the trade. I will bankrupt your whole lifeline. Okay if you're trading improperly okay and and I have no problem taking the food out of your kids melts okay. That's on the training aspect. I believe I'm a good guy. I'm a family man. I love my kids. I'm pretty pretty good in my community. Okay Okay I'm a very nice person but in trading you gotta be Kobe Bryant. You gotta be you gotTa be Michael Jordan. You have to be a killer. Okay you have to be the Absolute killer so when I'm looking at my trading. I expect every single traded put on. I'm going to make money okay. I'M GONNA make money on every single trait. Obviously does that happen force. Not but you have to believe that. So what I do is every single month at the end of the month. I'll look at my sheets and I look at the days and I say to myself. Well what happened that day right and look at the trades. I'll go back on the charts and try to figure things out and I don't look at the way I trade whether it's a good thing or bad acting on a daily basis on a weekly basis. I go through my sheets once a month but I do truly believe as long as you don't prostitute your process and I don't care what your processes as you can be trading at the fall swamps you can be trading whatever it is whatever you trading is. I believe that you have periods of dullness. Right right you'll have periods of you'll go on a monster on and you'll have periods that you know you can't get out of your way. It's called the buzzsaw every single trader for the exception of social media every single trader that puts on risk. Okay is going to run into a puzzle. It's inevitable the more screen time you get the more screen time you have and the more you'll more hands that the market gives you eventually. You're going to run into a bustle. There's been days and I swear like the days long every single thing that I've done for that one day ED whatever random date is throughout my career is been wrong. I buy the stock of the top of the channel. I get hit with a reload seller. I short the stock of the bottom of the channel. I hit the reload bio. There's nothing I can do to make money that day right and I shake it off. There's nothing you can do is again. Sometimes you'll get that two five off suit and there's no way you could play that hand the the only thing different about that days instead of me keep on compounding the problem and saying myself. Well I'm only down X.. What EXCA- turned into Xyz? So you you don't want to turn abandoned right. You don't want to turn a paper cut into a severed head so what I do every single month I wanna make sure yes my losing days. I'll have losing in days but I WANNA make sure this is whether the responsibility kicks in. I want to make sure I didn't take that bandmate right that band-aid with all these paper apricots and turned into a severed head. So if I see a number okay five number that jumps out me on my sheets. I know there was something wrong that day whether it was something I was holding overnight. You know obviously bad news it comes out all the time you could get downgraded FDA. I try not to hold biotechs overnight but you know you never know what comes out overnight overnight like a couple of years ago. I was long instructor. Potash super news came out the whole sector. The whole group was down. Twenty five percents and say okay. It's as part of the business so that kind of day would obviously stand out for me but most important thing would I do to kind of look back at a trading month. I say to myself well if I made made money. Eighteen out of twenty nine thousand nine hundred twenty two days. Whatever the number is I want to make sure the days that I didn't make money okay or quarter bustle? Okay because again every single trader. No matter who you are we'll catch that bus all. I WanNa make sure first and foremost that again. I can make back day whether it's the next trade next to trays the the next day. I just don't want to make sure I put myself in a situation being stubborn or pigheaded or just being an idiot okay because again. Meyer often used to tell me all the time. The greatest greatest thing you can do is don't trade like that's it. Don't trae like the greatest advice every game. You don't trae like a pause so as long as I never traded like pots and those numbers down days are manageable. I'm fine with it because again. That's the cost of doing business. There's not you can't escape. There's nothing to do so I try to make sure those days. Don't jump off the page. I WanNa make sure those numbers and not exaggerated to what I normally take on my days at a downside. I try to correct it. If they're possibly is. If there's just one of those days that you know what happens right. We say it all the time ish happens right if it's one of those days then you know what I'm fine with it. Rinse Repeat Repeat Golden next month short memory is part of the cost of doing business next trade next next year. I dance it while we're on this subject. Let's move a little deeper tape into risk management and position sizing. There were a few questions that actually came through on twitter about this. Can you talk to us about how you actually measure the size of your positions. Well let me say this. I WANNA actually break this down because it's different. How I it was just sixteen years? Okay I let me let me tell tell you what the advice I give to new traders okay number one most new traders again as we all know are undercapitalized and there's a whole theory out there so many different weird we use our ways of of kind of risk management. This is what I tell my guys. This is what it when I was in the business. This is what I used to tell all my traitors. If your account size is twenty five thousand thousand dollars okay if your accounts is twenty five thousand dollars. The maximum maximum fisk fixed risk on every single trade should be one percent right one percent that should should be your maximum risk. Now here's where things get very very good for you okay. Here's what good good for you. So let's just say for example. A stock closes again. Goes goes back to the five hundred yards previous night to get to your to get to your homework to next. So let's say solar city close at twenty four you you know. Twenty Four Seventy Five right twenty four seventy five. The high for that day was twenty five bucks so I know going into the next trading day if it takes Tau Twenty Five Bucks I WanNa be long the stock okay. So let's say you have a twenty five thousand dollar count right. One percent of twenty five thousand dollars is two hundred and fifty bucks correct. So that is your Max risk. That is your mattress so you know going into the trade okay. How many shares? Here's what's the biggest bang for my buck that I could put on still have a fixed cost of twenty two hundred and fifty dollars. Okay and get the biggest bang to the upside upside if the stock works so you say well. I'm buying stock at twenty five stock closed the previous day at twenty four seventy five. So if the stock sales right stockdale's my maximum axiom. Pain is two hundred and fifty dollars. Twenty five cents. So I'm buying a thousand shares rights. If the stock goes goes up a dollar goes up two dollars you're risking. I'm twenty two hundred and fifty dollars to make thousand two thousand etc for example if you buy a five dollar stock right five dollars. Stock Stock closed at four ninety. Ninety five you're buying the stock at five. You know you have a five cent rix Max you know your fixed rate. Your fixed costs is two hundred and fifty dollars so you say yourself. How many shares can I maximize? What again the biggest Max Payne is one percent of my count which is two hundred and fifty dollars and your upside is again where the chart looks so you said he saw fault five cents two hundred and fifty dollar risk? I'm buying five thousand shares so the closest you are okay the closer so you are to the entry okay. The closer you are to the entry for the previous day's closing price you can tear up or tear down and give you the biggest bang for your bucks is remember. Your Max Payne is always fixed and with that does it takes to complete emotional part of the trade out of the way you don't need to you you don't need to forecast you don't need to over thing. Oh there's a buyer there's a seller does a buyer is a cella you can late. The trade play out organically. Okay you can let it up organically weekly. You don't need to over think you already know. You're Max Payne and you saying yourself. What's the most amount of shares that I could buy within this interval that if it goes goes it's going to work very very big if down you know what I'm still down that one percent so again you buy? The stock could five star goes to five fifty and today's Europe. To what twenty five hundred bucks and your Max Payne again your fixed Max Payne is still that two hundred fifty dollars. You could do that with Google. You could do that with apple so you have a twenty five thousand thousand dollar count. Maybe you know maybe twenty thousand dollars account is a little bit of a hard stretch trait trading google. But let's just say you know you say to yourself okay. I'm risking Google. I'm risking Google rule. The previous day's high was just pick a number seven fifty whatever was seven fifty. The stock closed at seven. Forty eight right seven forty. What is the maximum shares? I can buy okay and sell. Have my fixed cost my max pain that I could trade google not get shaken out instill said the same thing so you say so I could by roughly one hundred shares of the stock. I'm risking two two and a half points and if the stock goes and again everybody knows how Google run and goes on a multiday run. You can make twenty thirty points Google. So the best thing for Mu Traders is stop over thinking because remember is only three parts of a train just think about that is only three parts of the train. It's the process right your size and the dlt. There's nothing else okay. There is nothing else but if you can't intelligently okay understand your Max Payne if you can't intelligently have the proper tier size your your result is already lost because all your emotions already already engulfed in the first two the first two parts train. So if you're if you're buying a stock right if you're buying stock and you can't sit in the trade for ten cents you're trading way too much sauce right way too much size here on time. Well the stock is not going. Well the stock is down seven cents sense against you but the stock is now gone thirty minutes later. Stock takes up highs today so tier size is very very important but more importantly tier size is having your fix your fixed stop Max Payne so if you go into every single trait and you said. He's a new traitor. I'm going with that one percent on both now one percent maximum drawdown per position. Now all I need have to do is figure out from the time entering the trade to my whatever my stop is whether it's on the fifteen minute chart your your maximum joy down to the downside on the daily charts from where the stock previously closed. I ready no by Max Payne the dollar mouth. Now I have to figure out the correlated number share St- how much to buy and then I give myself the biggest bang for my buck because again. It's all about risk define traits if if you're risking a thousand dollars to make three hundred dollars you're wrong if if you're risking five hundred dollars to make two hundred dollars you're wrong. But if if you put aside and allocated percentage which is a one percent basis which I always tell new traders do you already know you're my ex pain. You can do the numbers very very quickly and you had. What's the difference between the closing price and the entry in the next previous day? Give you some of the biggest is bang for your buck. Let the stock run take cash flow Holda Rauner use break-even stop again. Rinse Repeat Rinse. Repeat you now about to hail from Sam Bank fraud who featured on episode one hundred and seventy seven. Sam was an ATF. Tried at giant straight prior to relocating to the Hong Kong and starting his firm Alameda Research Alameda is a big volume. Quantitative trading firm solely focused on crypto currency markets. So what would you say is would you say is like the biggest risk as quitting provided in the crypto market. Like what's the biggest risk risk to you goes. Yeah and I think that like risk in two different things and we split it up very much between these two one sort of risk is like the risk that we just don't make watch money and to that extent whether there is obviously more competition is one of them off Mediocre Job I think is probably the biggest b-best is this is a really complicated messy environment. Anything only do these traits if you get a lot of things right if we just kind of half ass it and we're like yeah. I don't know it'll be nice to have this bank account prince a lot of work let's not bother novice on. Some great tree comes up but you can only do it. If you can send money to the bank out. E- chew bother getting. It seemed like a lot of work. And now you're not making money so I think that's sort of made your biggest risk in terms of just like why would we stop making money. The answer is which is kind of lazy. You just don't do job and we'll stopping he money like it's not like we just have. This machine can turn on in. Its money forever like we need to keep keep innovating keep working hard. Keep providing systems Cheaper finding our internal intuitions about what's going on and keep getting better every day in order to keep up and to keep growing such one way to think about that the other thing. But it's like what's the Bayes risk. I losing a lot of money in on that. Will they're few big big ones. I think exchange hacks obviously one of these and we have to be really mindful of like where are we putting our assets You know do we really want to have. Have you know. Twenty million dollars sitting on Kouadria out the parliament of cancer. Well being smart about how much you're putting where managing your risk. There's another one of like you know. Do you just do something totally crazy. Do you decide yet get long. Two hundred million dollars. Big Point hopefully will go. Aw Well it's finding forgot ten billion dollars in a mandate to take risks. But if you don't and bitcoin crashes use lost a lot of money I think we kind of think about this. The Lord risk says like one of them is like somehow like an exchange loses or assets and the other stories like we just put opposition that we have no business putting on that are we to live risk. Eat At least taking us out here on the best of risk risk-management pot one is Anthony Crudelly Anthony's and ex PIT TRISHA OF AMY S&P futures and he's also a body podcast is the host of futures. Reidar shy what was it that. What did you change like? Why did it all of a sudden things? Start clicking for you doing anything different different. Like what was was anything noticeably or significantly different that you are implementing my risk management. I became extremely efficient at managing risk. And how did I do that. Well when I started to figure out was okay start my position small goes if it starts to go my way of potentially add. If it started to go back against me I would scratch. I basically weekly would always start my position at twenty five. Th You know maybe thirty five percent of what I was going to sell. So let's say sell three. I'd sell one that's one then I'd sell one before. I would just sell three by three. So what I started to do was basically get in small my initial area and then I would be quick to Ed quick to cover over and I started to be able to massage my areas. We basically what I was doing so if I wanted to sell one by one and specific level I'd buy one I'd watch it. Sit there a little bit but that I buy another one and I buy another one then go my way and then I'd sell one and it would sit there and then I would sell another one out and then I keep one and I would try. I'd worked at so what I started wanted to do was once I started getting really comfortable doing that. I started with two that I went to four and I went to six and I started testing myself when I was up money money so what I started to do was when I was up money I was started pressel. I'd press a little bit and the next day press a little bit more. You know I'd be up eight hundred three hundred go up five hundred IBM nine hundred four hundred five hundred six hundred risk one hundred I go up five hundred. I'd always tried to go up five five hundred bucks and then one day you hit him for twelve hundred and you're like I got seven hundred bucks a risk now so what I would do. Laws downside was only five hundred bucks a day so if I hit that five hundred But when I started getting more than five hundred. I'd play with that money and I started depress depress a little bit more said all of a sudden I trade a little bit bigger so when I was was hot I be pressing when I was cold. I if I started off my winning my first-rate was a loser. It would only be a third of my position so when I was finally getting into a full position position in already be partially my way. I learned how to scratch or get out of that position and I would always constantly keep keep myself small get back small And I did that and I was able to ascoli that rather quickly I would say about I would say within. I don't remember exactly but let's just call it. Within two months I was already. I went from trading eating. I typically traded under five lots majority of that time prior to that and I went from like ten thousand I remember was like twenty something thousand Just by trading between four and six lots I was just basically basically making five hundred to seven hundred in a day over about a month and a half and I remember getting my count just over twenty grand And I was like okay and remember. I wasn't taking money out because I was working on. The floor was finally able to build it so when I started to do was was I started just a little bit so remember within that span. Now I had worked my way up at my first fifty and I remember my first fifty lot and it was just like I bought five. I bought five more than I bought ten more and these are all within a couple of six. Then we'll once my way again and then I bought twenty and I was like Okay Nam long forty that I bought ten more. I remember seeing it long fifty. I'm like if this thing doesn't go my way one tick right away. Mature around and sell it one wanting my way toothpicks against me boom turn around so fifty and I was like okay wasn't so bad I did it. I felt like a sense of like I can do this. I can trade fifty lots you know. I didn't go right back into it by. Continue to test the limits to see how I would feel so I started playing with my emotions. Okay fifty then and all of a sudden when I had fifty on ten feel felt more comfortable more controllable and that's how I slowly built it up and you know you know eventually I was able to build it up to to some real size and you know but that's how it started. I've got one last question for you. And that's pretty much. Do you have any final two words or anything you'd like to pass onto other traders this thing. I know you've obviously been through quite a roller coaster. Jenny yourself at any lessons. Sounds you'd like to pass on. That might be helpful to anyone listening to this podcast right now. I think the most important thing for traders to to really understand Dan is lost. I think it's the hardest thing I think that people come into this like myself with expectations to make money and I know from a lot of your gas. Ask because I listen to your shows in the past which are great by the way I think that a lot of good traders will say this but the one thing that I believe is most important is understanding standing how to manage your risk. That's what changed my life. That's how I changed everything and having a set of rules that are like instincts to you not having a set of rules that you have to look at it on a piece of paper like I'm a firm believer that especially in the futures markets. You can't be going going back and trying to you. Have too many things in your head. You're going to struggle Learn how to manage your risk understand. That loss is part of the business business and you will be able to heal from your loss. I come in every day and I know how much I'm under risk per day. I know what I'm going to risk pro-trade I know how much I'm going to risk per month. And at that point the worst thing that happened is guess what I lose that risk so I already know it going into it so that just cleared through everything you know. It helps me focus on what I'm doing and helps you focus on what's important the market. I've had so many the young traders come to me and the one thing that they just can't get past is when they say well. What should I be focusing anthony? And I'm like protecting the downside. I said you need to learn how to lose before you could win and people literally look at me. They think I'm crazy by saying learn how to lose before you could win because nobody comes in the mindset nobody nobody comes into trading with the mindset that I need to learn how to lose. It just doesn't even sound right like because nobody wants to but when you go into with that mindset something changes at least it did for me that when I came in knowing that My number one goal was to manage. Risk keep a very small Instinctual set of trading rules. I was able to free up all of the emotion and go after the market. You've reached the end of this episode of Chat with traders but rest assured there are more episodes loaded with real the market insights and zero hype on the way soon so to stay updated with each new release. Subscribe to the podcast. Tonight's US and we'd love it if you leave rating and review. We'll catch you next time on chat with traders.

Max Payne China Dan Google Pain Anthony Crudelly Anthony Twenty Loch Trade Aaron Fifield Kirshner risk manager Goldman Sachs roy kind founder Austin Texas Europe Blackjack Kirschner Manhattan
The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook  CFB Week 4 & NFL Week 3 September 20, 2019

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

32:32 min | 1 year ago

The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook CFB Week 4 & NFL Week 3 September 20, 2019

"Welcome Sherwin Williams hi there I heard paints or forty percents off. Yep and stains to right here uh-huh only at your neighborhood Sherwin Williams store right now well September twentieth through twenty third right on who right ask Sherwin Williams September twentieth through twenty third and see forty percent on paints and stains with sale prices starting at twenty three. Oh nine only at your local. Sherwin Williams store retail sales only some exclusions. Hi See store for details. We got one more guest. One more segment here left for this week. I'm banged about greatest once again as I mentioned recorded that on skype so we'll sound a little bit different but hopefully I can streamline and sue the audio a little bit for you here in the editing process but that last segment is with Brent the head risk manager down at DS sportsbook gain and recorded this on Thursday evening so some of these lines may have moved around a little bit but still lots of good insight on sharp money in both the college football and the NFL markets markets with Brent for sportsbook joined now by Brent the head risk manager down at Diaz sportsbook in Costa Rica for this week's version of the odds report right housing wanted Ayman going all right. I mean I'm looking out my window. The got a bit of a tropical storm here some thunder some lightning and I'm indoors talking to you so I couldn't be better all right. Buddy sounds good. We got a lot of stuff to get to here on today's show as well and we'll go ahead and start Friday night right away first game on the board three zero five three zero six seer Utah and USC and we've talked all week about how interesting this game is how interesting this handicap is kind of Nice. We have sharp action to start with this game on the on the segment here yeah I mean it's not sometimes we go through a whole season where we don't get to talk about a Friday game but we got one here the early game if you will not the Ernie game first game on my a screen with USC and Utah. You know this is a i. I liked this spot just because Utah is where I got my count. It's a strong countable. Oh five to one favoring Utah got sharp money on USC plus four and a half the line marketwide has gone down three and a half telling me that we're sitting on the right side with the sharp money in the public going against them so I'm feeling feeling good about this one right now like I said we're we're sitting here. Plus four and a half was sharp money more money though on on Utah based on the strong count five to one usually like around two to one three to one public versus sharp. I kind of get my chart around balanced five have two one. I'm still one side to the public. That's always of course a good spot to be so. Here's my question about this game. I mean we talk about how you classify. The sharp betters others that are out there. Was this a numbers play getting the four and a half or is this look like it's you know probably a pretty true position like USC. It's this this is obviously a big game in the PAC twelve got repeat that PAC twelve now pac twelve adam with sitting there I mean there are two one overall. We're all you got. Utah and Utah's like ranked around top ten. I think they are right now. So this is obviously a big big game from what I've seen and again it just a matter of profiling your customers right. There are certain guys just go out there and grab numbers and boom. They go their way and play back other side. You've got guys who do that as well and is at the guys is who were just sharp guys long-term who grabbed side and just stick with it and that's the case here with the plus four and a half on UC. We're GONNA make a big leap down the board here to one of the Marquis Games on the card but before we do that I just want to ask you about some of these games. Ohio states at thirty nine point favorite Clemson a forty one and a half point favorite favorite. You've got some four touchdown games out there as well. How do you approach these Games where you have some of these massive teams or some of these really really bad teams James. You just have huge numbers in the non conference and this is probably the last time that you'll have a lot of those since so many teams going to conference play. How do you approach just across the board the really big numbers in college football but the big numbers is just a matter of of moving more aggressively when you need to really. I mean like realistically speaking speaking anytime you get above ten even like in the NFL anything anything above ten on that. It's not a key member anymore. You know you could make an argument. Oh you know like thirteen eighteen or fourteen is a sharp number in the NFL but now I I mean we don't hold off on stuff that you don't consider that a key number so it just aggressive grasses movement and generally speaking to when you get numbers that high you know the public yeah they'll they'll they'll side with the with the with the big price sometimes but they'll also take take back prices and when they see you plus thirty eight and a half to like wow I mean that's just too much to pass up every now and then we talked about the past every now and then even though you get big number sometimes you do get sharp money on it so obviously if the respect that and move very aggressively so if you get sharp money like thirty seven. It's not like you're going from thirty seven to thirty eight or thirty thirty seven and a half. What's the point you're going Netflix. Jump bump up to thirty eight or three and a half you you got to move really aggressively stuff like that and generally the public's not going to be as heavily involved even though it's a marquee team well. This is a marquee archy game. You're going to have public money and you've got some sharp investment in this one as well Kim three forty three three forty four Michigan and Wisconsin Eleven. AM local time kickoff noon eastern time kickoff so not a whole lot of time for a massive handle on this game but I'm sure it won't stop people from betting it yeah. This will definitely be one of the the heavier bet games of the week. I mean we talked about that. USC Game. That's on on fighter. That's going to be heavily bed of course on this Wisconsin. Michigan game definitely will another big game on the West. I guess you want to call it was the Washington. Byu that should be that should be decent as well as got a decent spreading some some decent teams well so well games out get real good action foresee. We've you gotta you know the other really good teams that are involved are generally higher point spreads right now like Lsu's around twenty four. I think it was of Florida's up around there for over fourteen stuff like that so you get a few competitive games like this. This is definitely Morla what you would call a marquee match up. This number has moved slightly in terms of the spread read from two and a half up to three three and a half or three and Jews. What's out there. The Count Bait basically is about two to one Wisconsin. I just got right now from what I've seen in the house just just general public money betting the side right now moving them Wisconsin number two. I opened at three in the juice right now but I know there are some three and a half with that with dogs out there but I did get bet on the total one. I got sharp money on the under here. So under forty six is where it came here in house on my sitting at forty four and a half right now. That's pretty pretty much market wide. I think forty seven was the highest opener all like I said forty six right got bet here are moved to that. Washington and Byu game that you mention the game three forty nine three fifty so sounds like you've got some pretty good action on this but also some sharp money to yeah I got I mean already. My wagered. Count is good my volumes on good game. This game was looking like it's going to be a good one. In terms of you know for me sitting back as a risk manager the the more volume I have on a game and more interest. There is the generally really you know. It's easier for me now that as easy to balance action now of course you never rebels as well on a game. You never get exactly even really close to the same amount of money onto sides but you get you get what you call manageable numbers this one here another one. I got bet on Washington's got our road favorite here at Byu and I I don't know. Byu's I mean this is really you know. They're not a bad side. It'd be on if you're going to get you know quote unquote stuck on aside. Byu already. I think they've gone on they beat. USC At home last week. I guess it was they went on the road and beat Tennessee. Thirty was the first game this season versus Utah who's like I said they're they're ranked number number ten. I think so decent tough schedule for Byu so far they are. They are two in one after the sit here rooting for them and I again going to sharp is not something something I opposition you. WanNa be on. I have accountable to one favorite Washington. I got sharp money at minus five and a half so I I don't want to go to seven by I could see this one going up to seven just trying to get some money back on. Byu hopefully some sharp money but you can have a little bit of confidence going to Byu what they've done so far. This season sounds. It's one hell of a thunderstorm down there man yeah. That's a good one yeah funder. I got lightning and and I'm talking new so it's a great day. I will say Eddie not to go way off track kind of weather nerd so it's it's kind of interesting. Don't don't make that sound. Is that a thing. I told you I would love to spend a few weeks in the spring storm chasing in the Midwest and the great plans. I think that would be awesome. I mean a huge fan of doing that. Moving right along okay fine. We'll move past that if you just want to crush my dreams in my talk Kim three seventy three seventy four here West Virginia and Oh Kansas fascinating fascinating handicapped lots of intrigue about this one yeah this one here. The number on the side has been pretty. You know pretty stable often four sitting at four and a half right now so it's good to action on the on the spread here. I do have one sided action on the total just sharp money so far coming in on that one at the honor fifty four so under fifty four is what I got bet. this number did open his high fifty five in pretty much consensus out on the board right now as a forty nine so so it's a five point move the sharp money bet me so far. It's just trickles of public Monday going the same way as well so I'm sitting at fifty four if I don't get something back the other way. I'm probably going to have to go even lower on this trying. You just kind of you know excellent attempt. Simone de the over on this one. I say man I mean Kansas you know. It's been a longtime since they've been relevant. They pick up that big Friday night win last week against Boston College. I'll be curious to see what happens with some of their prices as they go along in particular if they they win this game here this week then you really have to respect what they've done. Yeah no that was that wind last week which is massive and obviously was a game where on Game Day. Hr Passion came in on them so I was Kinda waiting to see if you know this number I think is a respectable number at the four four and a half where it is right now. It's one of those ones that you might WanNa. Watch TV takes six back. Neil awakes if it does. I'm pretty sure it's GonNa be sharply that moves that are so we jump down a couple of spots here on the board to some action game three seventy seven three seventy eight bowling green and Kent State and again. I wish we could always talk about Auburn an Oklahoma State Texas all those types of games but as we've talked about before sharp's fine in value no matter what the game looks like and they found some here yeah. I've got sharp money on this one on the home favourite Kent State minus nine is where that came in gone all the we have to live and a half right now. This is one of those those good spots to look for his where as well where you gotta sharpen public split now. I'm not going to try and convince you that I got massive public action action on this Game Adam but I do have a higher count on Bowling Green so I've got twice as many symbol in green sharp money Kent State at minus nine seeing eleven half right now aw I did talk about this game kind of follow college football a little better than I do a little more than I do and I wrote down about bowling green was horrible yeah. It's just pretty accurate. I mean my words so team that I mean they've won a handful of games the last few years and now all of a sudden they're laying double digits and somebody who went to Akron Kent State's primary rival those studios play on homecoming in a few weeks here and I'm kind of worried about what that line looks like for accurate because it's pretty clear that zips or one of the worst teams in the country so them in bowling green I mean that's a real pillow fight whenever accurate bowling green it's tough right. I mean some of these teams are just that bad right and sometimes too with the team like you mass for example not that there's any sharp action that game but it's almost like you can't set lines high enough because they've played that poorly yeah. No I mean it's a tough thing with with college football especially when I'm not talking about the marquee schools here but you talking about as a player right if you're one all the best players coming out. Where are you gonNa go while you're going to go to the best school the school that has most people playing in the NFL and all that kind of stuff so it's kind of if you trickle that down even at the lower lower levels you still get that discrepancy. I mean if you've got a choice of going to a you know a middle school if you WANNA call it or or low lower level school if you're if you're good enough you take the best opportunity for yourself and it's kind of a little things that it's really tough to change art so we go here to game three hundred eighty one three ninety-two marquee game in this one so I do get to hit on at least just a few of those here on this segment. Notre Dame and Georgia and like I talked about on Thursdays show you're going to top ten battle here with a two touchdowns touchdown spread and and I think some people just think it's too high but maybe not yeah I mean you. You would think that again. That's part of the battle in that. We come up with with like I said before. We talk about you know before putting these numbers up where we see other books come up. We have our own handicappers that we talked with as well and it's just like you want to put a number that you think is high enough but not too high of course and again. The idea is that you want to get as much action on both sides of the teams. You're not really about predicting nick outcomes. I mean you hear that. All the time where you know a line comes out at you know like minus fourteen in the team wins by fourteen and all while the bookmakers really had it right while you we're really trying to predict the score. We're trying to balance action between two sides this one here with Georgia. It seemed like a reasonable number in terms of opening up below fourteen we opened up thirteen and a half and I got sharp money at Soya at twelve and a half ago sharp money at twelve and a half. I think the lowest opening number out of the market was eleven and a half so I kinda got ahead of the game by opening at twelve and a half got hit by sharp money at the twelve and a half. We're up to fourteen and a half now. I mean it's like you figure if Notre Dame money was in be tempted did at fourteen and a half that probably would have been the spot also in turn my bet count. I've got a wage accountable to to one favoring Georgia's well so you know I it is marquee game. It's a big game between being too big schools. In Notre. Dame obviously has a great following by still have account twice as many bets on Georgia and the sharp Georgia's while once again to household names Ames here primetime game huge handle coming. What do you think I mean. Do we see fourteen again with reasonable juicers fourteen and a half probably where we are now where I'm I'm sitting right now. The only number where I've got my my money balanced and my count kind of close to being bells is fourteen and a half but even there I'm still my count still favors Georgia even at fourteen it was almost two favoring Georgia so it was nothing but Georgia money below fourteen so I guess we're probably going to stay at fourteen and a half year who knows those maybe even go higher on this marquee match up in Primetime. One more game to touch on here this three thirty Eastern Kickoff in the ACC Louisville and Florida state game three nine thousand three hundred ninety four and this sharp actions pretty obvious regarding this game yeah and here's the other quote that have written down was about Florida estate that they shouldn't be favored by death this much over anybody so sharp money came in on Louisville that was at eight and a half plus eight and a half off on Lever Bill. We're down to six and a half right now. My counts pretty much even so it's not it's not too bad in terms of my my dollar position although to have almost twice as much much money on on Louisville because of course sharp money to play a little bit more than your your public is generally speaking so Florida state's been just you know rough rough this year and Louisville's kind of like one of those teams at I I you know I've been identified a couple of times already by the sharps as a as a side to it hasn't always worked out but they've been picked on a couple of times already so that's something to look for. Maybe going forward plus eight and a Half Louisville sharp money here count pretty much even all right so before we start looking at some specific. NFL Games here. I want to ask you about this. You and I were talking before we started recording here about how much of a mess the NFL is this weekend to spreads over three touchdowns bunch of backup quarterbacks all that different type of thing when you see a week like this in the NFL and this may be as bad as it's been but when you see a week in the NFL made with bad games or a bunch of injuries something like that. Do you see the college channel increased to the point where people are just like. I don't want to bet the NFL. I'll just do more with college this week. Yeah no I mean the early action has been pretty pretty much the same endgame the actions pretty much the same you have to remember to there's so much ochsner comes on Game Day and even like on college football especially it gets turned like people we'll have a limited bankroll they'll turn through ERTA Games journey through Middle Games and literature and through Lake Games and then they'll play a game on Sunday so now I mean the only thing that really affects volumes blowing me. If you have like a horrible day on Saturday or a great day on Saturday that will affect volume more than anything else you talk about. NFL The all the changes is in quarterbacks and this and that it's been like if you look back say to the start of the season or or whatever three weeks back. I mean you've got I mean right now. I think Newton's walking boot that's the latest thing but Andrew Luck retired foles broke his collarbone. I Game Rothlisberger has done for the year you're breezes gone for like six plus week with his thumb darnold for the jets comes up with model gets replaced by Siemian and he's done for the year as well now. He's just like crazy. I mean we're looking at week three here and those those big big stories all these key quarterbacks yeah and this isn't really a conversation for for this segment necessarily but I'll throw this out there anyway there's already some discontent with the product here for the NFL NFL with all the officiating the Opie I the flags the reviews and then you've also got all these injuries and not just the quarterbacks but some wide receivers guys like Tyreek Hill are already down and I'm sure we'll lose more of them. As we go along the way Asia Green still not playing who knows if he'll be back in week four or not that's it may just be one of those years for the NFL where the injury bug just mainly devastated. Yeah I get I get I get evil looks around here when I say that the NFL stands the answer the no fun league. It's really I mean watching some of these games especially with the flags and stuff like that. It's just been just been no fun sometimes all right so what does the Canadian football league what does the NFL stand for them. Oh Hey hey hey. I think it's October second. NHL SAW AW NHL Exhibition. We've got already yeah well. You're right yeah yeah they. Are they going to do this year. They're up and coming team. They're her young and hungry. So am I so we'll finish this segment here so I can get some food all right look. Let's let's go ahead and talk about the first game on the board here for Sunday Game Four. I sixty one four sixty to Denver and Green Bay and not not a real aesthetically pleasing game here I don't think and the sharp action may kind of agree with with that standpoint yeah I mean the sharp action will will will let the genie out of the ball here that under forty three and a half is where the sharp money is so yeah yeah. I guess we're looking at a I think Green Bay's defense to is we talked about. I think one that I kind of had a feeling that charter looking out a Green Bay hoping they kinda lost that that week one game so they could get on them later but obviously won that game so that's all Shabat Green Bay. I think is one of those teams that Kinda you know. The defenses is really. You know a lot better than it used to be. I think I think that's one of the one of their strong suits now. The under forty three happening played by sharp's. Maybe maybe reinforces that or could would be comment on on offense as well accounts pretty close on this this game in terms of the site itself. I'm sitting at I'm kind of torn born between sitting at home right now seven juice or going to seven dogs fifteen or something like this. I I get the feeling that number is going to go back up. I also have already already seen that. Green Bay's you know one of the most popular teaser sides for the week as well so it's kind of one of those those those games we look at if you can kind of make a decision between going minus seven minus one fifteen or or whatever or minus seven and a half dog twenty or dog fifteen you want to be on seven and a half just to kind of make people pay that extra point for the teasers. Yeah you know I was on Minnesota last week in circa million contest and if you would've told me before the game that Green Bay would score its first three possessions and the not score at all. I'd have been very happy with the spot I would have been in with plus five and plus three and it doesn't even matter and that's a testament to that packers defense so I I agree with you and again we'd probably look at Green Bay under team and you know if they have lower numbers I would imagine it will probably be for the most part a playoff team as well speaking of Minnesota SORTA. We moved out and game four seventy one four seventy two and it appears the Vikings. Were a playoff team earlier this week. Yeah Minnesota's got charbonnet here. You see this numbers move quite a bit minus seven minus one fifteen is where sharp money came in. We're sitting at minus nine right now. That is Minnesota at home to Oakland. I guess the the bubble double may have burst already on Oakland that opening week victory where they'd be Denver and again. We just talked about Denver. Who I mean you know may have a rough long year but sharp money on Minnesota minus seven minus fifteen interestingly enough and these are the public perspective on my couch is pretty pretty close so that means. I am getting support for Oakland Glenn from public which I Kinda I kinda appreciate but you also see the fact that the numbers still moved all the way up to nine from the minus seven minus one fifteen where the sharps came in at at the lower number as well. I think Minnesota's one of the one of the top tier teams while you can right now if you're doing like you know six and a half point teaser a seven-point tease. You're getting them to less Aston three points at as a home teaser so that's another team that you know Green Bay's popular teaser side and Minnesota is already as well well as somebody who mentioned Oakland in the previous segment segment regarding the super contest. I'm concerned to hear that you know Minnesota sharp side early Oakland kind of the public side. Do you think this line comes back down a little bit. Do you feel like somebody out there. There's waiting to dig Oakland. No how's that for short answer. No I mean my count is pretty much. Even so it's you know it is one of those spots where I could continue to get okay money or at least get said right now. I do have to a action so I'm in a decent spot. Oakland is getting support and again once you get up over seven and a half around sitting around around eight. It's a decent spot where you can get you know. Get money back or get to. We asked now for that pretty much after the seventies pull this up again. I think pretty much after the you know the seven even bats is Brunette decent to react on this one yeah. He's not bad so I I you know I think it's going to hang around where it is. It takes down like down eight. Yeah yeah that wouldn't surprise me at all but I think it's going to hang steady between eight and nine for sure but that would have to be sharp action to bump it back to eight right. The public would know the public pretty much wouldn't do it. I don't think again the sharp money did come in at seven so if you've got overwhelmed with pub public money yeah you could take down. Maybe half point or so but you you you know you you pretty much want to hold your position with the sharp long-term all right so go to game four seventy five four seventy six and I talked about in the college segment previously disley how it's very hard to find a number where people will bet on Umass. It's probably impossible to find a number where people will bet on Miami and the NFL. I mean municipal. It's it's tough. I mean you know you talk about all the stuff that we did in week. One about all the off field stuff with Miami's well you know the trading of Tunsil that didn't go over. We're well of course they're all the you know the ports of reports of them quote unquote tanking this season and stuff like that. I mean they just offensively. They don't have any he real weapons. Rawson I think is going in quarterback this week replacing Fitzpatrick who had no magic this season and it's just it's just a bad bad spotty. It's their offensive offensive. Line is just like replacement level as well and you got Dallas team. That's just rolling the world rolling offensively new offensive coordinator. I mean you look at how Prescott throws the ball now on the receivers he has with Cobb and everything and they seem to be a really really deep team. You saw last week with no Miami cap catching the big points versus New England last last week. Just simply didn't matter now. They're on the road. Versus Dallas in Dallas is at twenty three point favor now. I'm in a bad spot and I got sharp money on Dallas in the you know the opening opening a number which is minus seventeen of course public wise. You just not going to get a whole lot of support for Dallas at all. I've got a count of about three two one two and a half three to one the cowboys as well so I got public money all of the cowboys and I got the sharp early money on them as well and the thing of it too is that you look at Miami and I mean as this thing continues eighteen used to go along as more guys trades unless Josh Rosen looks pretty good this week and I'm sure dolphins fans and and you guys there at the books are really hoping that happens. I don't know what you do on a weekly basis with this team. You know it's just so hard to power rate because not only did a question of talent. It's also a question of boat ovation every week and it's tough to look at the quarterback spot. He's in I mean. How good can he look? I mean the dolphins are saying look. I want to see it happen. This quarterback and he's got basically no offense line to throw to wow is he. GonNa look so. It's it's just I mean. They're offensive. Line is anemic of the can't run the camp. They can't protect and they basically don't. Oh really how many weapons I mean. This is crazy right. You've been doing this for a long time. It's week three and we have two games with lines over three touchdowns. It's astonishing rushing yeah. I don't think I mean I could be wrong but from my recollection. I don't think I've ever had to correlate a games in the NFL in the same week doc and as we look at Miami here was was there any difference between Rosen Fitzpatrick or no no terms of adjustment to the line. No no I mean the thing is yes. I mean Fitzpatrick was was pretty much a disaster and you kind of look as could rosen be worse probably not so I mean but there's no it just the rest of the team. There's just not enough. There's just not enough people around to help the guy all right so we moved here to game four seventy seven four seventy eight another new quarterback in this one that is Daniel Jones going for the giants getting the start over Eli Manning and I guess it's the end of the manning era at least as long as Jones stays healthy there for the giants. It's what do you see it from this game. Yeah this talk about whether you adjust for Rosner Fitzpatrick this will games and and you know with all the respect aspect ally manning you pretty much get a slight upgrade upgrade or the giants Jones in there. I mean he's manning didn't look good at all. Jones showed the decent the preseason yes it was preseason and mop up duty facing second-stringer sometimes and stuff like that but but he looked good and the thing is is not just you know how he is on the field is exchanges the attitude you talk about the perceptible the dolphins and just kind of like even the players in the team like okay. We're tanking. This is going to be a brutal year here. We're not going to win a single game where you got. The giants were at least has a player saying okay. You know they're making a change. They're looking to the future giving the young guy a shot. Let's go do do something for them so I I think he had a different attitude there in terms of the actual results on the field you know we'll see what I've seen so far in terms of shirt monies that so far or I got Tampa Bay money that is sharp and got public money backing them as well so it could be a case where giants just up and down or just not that good. I question how good they are defensively as well. All we got a total of forty seven from the opener of while my opener was forty eight and a half four down to forty seven and a half so number has ticked down but still it's a it's a it's a pretty high total total sharp money on Tampa Bay was minus five. I'm this number has gone up six and a half and six I think is going to continue to between six and a half and six. If you touch seven I wouldn't be surprised but I'd probably get some you know some buyback plus seven there on the giants but I would look for this number two hang between six and six and a half account right now is about two to one favoring Tampa a base of public and sharp money on the box no sharp action here until Monday night but I do want to ask you about the rest of the Sunday car quickly. Carolina no Cam Newton New Orleans breeze Pittsburgh no Ben Rothlisberger. What do you think the adjustments are at the point spread for for those three big name quarterbacks. Yeah I mean it's you how can have to look at what teams are doing as well. I mean the with you know the saints for example. It sounds like this week. They're going to go a little bit. More of of Bridgewater and I Guess Hill is is the name he's GonNa be out there as well. I'm quarterback a lot more you saw from from Rudolph. Is We have a bit of a sample size with him in terms of Pittsburgh and stuff like that and obviously it's tough because you gotta look guys. You're talking about guys who generally having you carry the ball before you in terms of carrying the load and they're they're out there for the first time really so you have have to be kind of cautious. I guess with it. Obviously the you know the drop down from breezes is kind of a big one. We saw you know when we saw him speaking rothlisberger as well but it's kind of you know we. We've got our power rating numbers. We've got adjustment numbers and we also use like the look ahead numbers as well right you talking about looking at numbers from previous weeks and you. Kinda just based on what's happening on the field so it's a whole a lot of you know up and down with the abacus throwing it out there and see what the sharper public guys do with art so we go to Monday night football here final game of the week chase game for some people obviously the bears and the Redskins game four eighty nine four ninety. What's the early activity on this game. Yeah you're seeing a chase game and the one thing with the you know the Sunday night and Monday night games is yeah. I mean people do everyone watches those games so pretty much everyone vessels games we talk about how you know how heavily gambling coming impacts the NFL and these are clear examples of it just because our handle is massive. He's not like I suddenly found. Everyone suddenly found value on those games now. Everyone's watching servewell invests them. I like her spot here in that. We do have sharp on this game. You've seen the number dropped down to four or three and a half out there. I dig it sharp sharp money on Washington the home dog when the line ticked up to four and a half so plus four and a half lab sharp money I I kind of expected public money on the bears and I have seen that so so far not a massive count because it's the Monday night game foreign advanced but the count still is about to one favoring the Barrasso the the early look. I'm going to end up with a sharpened. Public Split obviously obviously Monday night and Sunday night. Get more public action than any single game so I'm expecting more public money. Come in on the bears. I can probably hang around four. Maybe four fifteen if the entire market serene half Okla with them of course but I'm looking at right now where I got hit yeah plus four and a half. I think I can probably hang plus four thousand action there or even start needing the redskins come on Monday night. Brent ahead wrist measured down at a sports book talking about Sharp Action here for us we in college football and the NFL and laughing at the back that I enjoy severe weather and I'm a little bit of of weather nerd. Brent appreciate your time as always thank you so much. We'll talk to you again next week. Have a fantastic we we can add them. Thanks for calling. It's cutting into your exercise time it stabbing you in the back nine and it's attacking your peace of mind. It's pain and it's getting in between you you in a life you want to live. CD medic targets your pain added source. It's fast acting relief with active. OTC ingredients plus the added benefits of THC free hemp oil oil get back to your life with CB medic available online and at CBS these statements have not been evaluated by the FDA. This product is not intended to diagnose treat cure or prevent any disease these it's cutting into your exercise time it stabbing you in the back nine and it's attacking your peace of mind it's pain and and it's getting in between you and the life you want to live. CD medic targets your pain at its source. It's fast acting relief with active. OTC ingredients plus the added benefits of T._H._C. Free soil. Get back to your life with C._B._D. medic available online and at C._B._S. These statements have not been evaluated by the F._D._A. This product is not intended to diagnose treat cure or prevent any disease.

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The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook Super Bowl LIV January 24, 2020

Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook

19:51 min | 1 year ago

The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook Super Bowl LIV January 24, 2020

"We got one more guest one more segment here four this week on the show that is this version of the odds report with Brent from Diaz. Sportsbook we talked super bowl fifty four before we talk some stuff on the. You Have C.. Here for this weekend not a whole lot in the pro markets as of yet still working through getting a lot of that stuff up and of course sharp. It better going to start picking away at some of those props throughout next week so a shorter segment on the odds report here this week with Brentwood still some very good information with thoughts. What's on the Super Bowl in this weekend's see event so here is this week's version of the odds report with Brett from the SL sports? I'm joined by Brent. The head risk manager down at the sports book for this version of the odds report breath. How's it going today? Man Doing wonderfully well. I mean this is the the you know the culmination of the whole football season here and like it's it's a great match up to that we're looking at as well so I mean it's kind of like the the right teams if you want you know quote unquote say that are are in their in some way that is exciting that respect and we had the debut is I n Williams last night and we're getting close to Lake All star Games in hockey and NBA and stuff stuff like that which means baseball pitchers catchers should be reporting a few weeks so good. I mean it's beautiful things about this industry just like really it. It just doesn't stop. I mean you can say yeah you know say baseball. WNBA sleaze whatever is like a slow season but that doesn't last a whole lot long especially when you factor in how late the the NF NHL Osco. So it's oppy content guy here well and just to clarify when you talk about the big game in the right teams you're talking about the NFC versus the AFC and the pro bowl on Sunday right. Yeah they still play that they do. Yeah it's not even in Hawaii Wii anymore though Orlando I think right. Yeah and I don't know that it's just it's just a bad idea like the same with the NBA UC just the human the All Star game. Just the way they play is like it's not even it's not even like a game of pickup. It just like you guys take the ball and see what kind of dunks you can do or shooter the two threes from half court or whatever it is the NFL just the style of play. It's just not set up. Well two guys being aggressive hitting which is the whole concept of defense. Yeah we'll see if there's any defense played in the pro bowl but there should be some defense played here in the Super Bowl. Although the early bet counts on the total would suggest that maybe defense could be optional here in this one but it is the forty niners and the chiefs out there as you know if you don't know that. Am and listening to the show and be must must be listening to anything but small favorite out there a lot of over money here so far. What's going on in house at? GSI On the big game. Yeah Count Wise is. It's it's pretty. It's to wait one side to the total as you know you touched on there just seems to be just been impounded. I thought it was just when I kind of get a feel for where where things are going to go. I thought after the open fifty one and a half fifty two. I thought it was going to settle around fifty four. Maybe sit there for a couple of days and then come back come back down. I think maybe we'll see it. Come down next week. You got a ton of time for this game. Of course still so I just I just see this number. Probably getting hit and coming back down at some point in time. I don't have sharp money on you know on the toilet. All I waited count towards the over seven to one so it's just a a massive count towards towards the over but from what I see so far. It's just like you know just public. Is Betting night it just non stop. Of course no matter what we put up. So I'm highest fifty four and a half which is the highest number on the board and that's Kinda we're going until someone suggested the wise. There's a dramatic move back the other way Spread it's a spread of money line because this number is so short at either one and a half with Kansas City or minus one minus fifteen out. There on we're talking money light up minus one twenty five so to come back there as possible. No five so as you would expect just kind of like the the rationale of a lot of people's while phone and just go you know why. Take the one minus. Oh five or you may as well take the plus five so. I'm getting that a lot. My my waiter count on the money line is very specific about two point. Two five times favored of San Francisco. So I'm getting more money on the money line. I did take sharp action action non-candidacy beyond the spread now. I didn't Oakland pick. We opened up minus one an Raghav bet on Kansas City. So the hit there were initially again. This number came mm up while the while the game on last week and was still going on so it's been up for quite a long time again. I didn't I didn't open at the pick. I opened a minus one. That's got sharp money on Kansas City now. The spread count itself is about two point seven five times candidacy so not quite three to one favorite Kansas City so I got two and a quarter. Basically money align favoring the niners and two and three quarters the other way was Kansas City on the spread. So if I if I add it all together. I'm still off on Kansas City in terms of overall money money but still not that bad honestly I I'll admit in this case I just don't really have a few for the side other than I think. It's probably beginning bounce around where it is. I could seek going to. I mean if you look at the look ahead light I believe it was two and a half or or or or Tunein. I think it's probably going to get to there. I just this. I can't see going back to a pick because just my rationale there is that you pick was already on the board when it opened up and you know there wasn't a rush of San Francisco money there so i. I don't think it's going to go back down a picks but the way the money's going on the money line and the way it is on the on the spread is just not overwhelming. I just don't see hitting three either even like three dog twenty or whatever I I just don't see that so I think you know we're going to be in a comfortable spot. You're not really risking any key numbers here. I think is probably going to stay between one. And and maybe too and we'll probably end up with a similar chart as we have right now. The only thing I think like you say I I just I think at some point next week. Maybe we'll get so money coming in on the under the haven't seen it yet so from a risk management standpoint. You know when we talk about the Super Bowl. It's usually the dog on the money. Line and the favorite mytalk lightest points and a lot of people kinda just liked to adopt that strategy here with this game but as you mentioned with this one basically one one and a half not really a whole lot out of wiggle room for movement. It's not gonNA hit three. It may get the San Francisco minus one if that ends up being the sharp side but not a lot of movement here on the side so from a risk management standpoint. I mean does that free you guys up to focus more on other things. How do you sort of balance that out? Well I just you get. It feels sometimes the numbers right and I think this one is very strong again. The early indication from the mets got show that actually I think the the number could take up. It might go to you know to I two and a half maybe I. I don't know 'cause I think you might see some guys buying at that point. They said I don't think it's going to drop down a pick. I don't think it's GonNa flip worse. Our Cisco's the favorite either so. I think this numbers can be good for us. The only thing I I think that could volatility wheat would be the toll on my my my feelings at that would come down but who knows now does would money line exposure caused you to move the spread at all or would you just move the money line price down. I mean you can do that sometimes. Yeah the right now. The way things are balanced off the spread and the money line being this lowest plus five and the minus one and a half it just. It's not not really significant for us to make move if I was one sided toward San Francisco on the money line but right now you know. It's a good spot. I if you took a boat talk about sorry last week when you're getting and you know bigger payoffs like plus two fifty on the dogs and the minus seven and a half dot fifteen. What it was on those games? You might look at those in terms of exposure and stuff like that but those games while they they just worked out for us in terms of the management. Now of course going back to two that week things weren't great frost and the fact that both favorites covered him in both games. Went over when you look at the teasers and self at that so that wasn't a great result for us but I think this number's going to work for us where we are now. I don't know if you know this and I apologize if I'm blindsiding you with it because you know I didn't ask you this before the show. But in terms of super bowl futures exposure I mean given the San Francisco defense given how you know they had that real. Oh Nice Cameo with Jimmy G. A couple of years ago and then given Kansas City and the offense I think that these two teams are real great in terms of the futures exposure. You may have had not yet. No actually we're good spot. I think she when the playoffs started. We basically had a you know one Risk position to the eagles and that was really the only team that we lost to. I think Seattle was not great for us but I think the Eagles and Seattle were the only ones who were at risk too. So we'RE GONNA WE'RE GONNA do well to both these teams as you segue in for me. I did personally Bet San Francisco at thirty five to one before the season started. So I'm glad you brought that up. What's your play are there? What's your plan? Have you decided. Well I mean we talked to the market and stuff like that and kind of the feeling as to where things might go. I might be a good time to just just look at how things might go into the game or you get into terms of the analyzing the stats and stuff like that and the matchups in Dauphin. You know it's interesting because San Francisco is different front. Seven is by by far the fastest in there in the league. I mean they they go up and down the linebackers go side to side real well and you know you know in terms of Mahomes were struggles and stuff like that Arias. More when he's forced to sit in the pocket on you saw last week as well what happens to him when he gets out of the pocket. I mean He. He succeeds quite well their homes as well. He does very well versus zone. Defenses in San Fran plays they play more of a tight zone coverage I guess you could say okay so but we're Kansas City. How successes with the tight ends and receivers who can sit into those pockets and stuff like that so? I think it's really interesting in terms so how well the defense contains mahomes. Obviously that's key but you know San Fran. They've been a little bit more vulnerable to Russia's well and the thing that kind of has me the spread of minus one or whatever the Kennedy being a slight favorite really doesn't concern me much but if I did kind of like look into things myself I'd just can't get past you know how sound Cisco yes they got this great defense has got that reputations really been built up but on the field shore but in medias wall but I mean they was against New Orleans I guess it was a forty eight forty six game. They lost at home to Atlanta. Twenty nine twenty. Two in the Falcons they were Kinda Anna second half season yeah they got lice. Important played better but The Rams as well I think that was like a thirty four thirty one and compare those teams to to the chiefs and Mahomes and I just you know I think San Francisco Yeah. Their defense is really really good. But I think cassidy's is likely to expose him to some degree flip side of that as well as like you know who do you trust. More Jimmy G. or mahomes hiking. Oh Yeah I love my price. I said thirty five to one but I think you know just for me. I just have to hedge back. I just I just really can't rest that on Jimmy G. and and again I'm not even looking back into the last week and stuff like that you know his stats was six out of eight for less than eighty yards or whatever but he didn't have to do anymore I mean San and I just kind of rolled with with what remained Gabe in Green Bay. Play the horrible run defense. I mean why bother chuck hundred out there. They just didn't have to so I I kind of I don't really read much into that but San Francisco does run the ball more than anyone else in the league but they do have good matchup issues too with Deebo Samuel on the outside you got kittles. Well doing his stuff so I I see a lot of ways for both these teams to you know to win the game. I I wish I could say I just love San Francisco in this game. I'm going to ride it out but it's interesting because it's been so dominant with the run and Ken Cities Been So donald the pass I think the key to this game really is going to be San Francisco who can have success passing the ball and can the city can run the ball well and that's the funny thing too. You know. I know that you guys over there are working on your prop catalog. You're still trying to put what a lot of that stuff up there so we don't have anything really to talk about on the prop side. We'll do a lot of that on next week segment but I do think that prop creation is a big challenge and also also playing a lot of these because again two contrasting styles teams San Francisco runs at Kansas City. Throws it if San Francisco Plays Ball Control and Mahomes. uh-huh doesn't get a lot of volume. Well let's get hurt. All the skill position over that people want to bet on the flip side if San Francisco has no help or has no success. Passing thing can't get a lot of those third medium third and longs and Kansas City. Has the ball a lot all those are going to come in so the prop betting the procreation creationist so tough for this game. Because he's teams are so wildly different. Yeah I think what when people when you do your own handicap and I definitely encouraged that you you've got to look at the statistics and you gotta look matchups in well and I think when it comes to the stats as well. You have to look at strength schedule and stuff like that and you look at Kansas missile. Defense it has been well-documented how they're quote unquote improve but if you look at the strength of schedule versus the pass offenses that they when they had some really really tough team that went against. I think they played like the top five on top five in terms of the offense the defense when against so. That's really be skewed. We talked about it at at bowl season as well. You know when you got conference teams playing against each other you know all the stats are based on conference. Play a ninety going auto conference in these Games. You really have to throw a law that stuff away this is game obviously the NFL. You you don't really have to throw stuff away and it really comes comes down to these two teams. Who Do those two different things? Really well in terms of San Francisco passing a sort of San Francisco running and Kansas City passing. I think it's like I said I think it's the opposite is what's is going to be key these games now. I just I again. I keep going back to this whole Jimmy versus home things. We know they're not you know. I hate when people say that. Oh you know Jimmy. G. is whatever whatever record against Pat Mahomes. Well he does not pay play Games mahomes. He plays against Kansas. City's defense The other thing too and probably much can be made of it next week or already has a boat and you read and how well he does off the bye. I think one of the things that's lost with him is. He's really strong defensively. There's a strong defensive correlation between reads team and coming off off the bye. So that's another chip sort of in their favor as well again. You know like read the concern that I if you look at the past two weeks weeks offensively. They just started really slow. They came up behind the ball. They're losing both games and read. He does his stuff from the sidelines. He's okay tweak this to the offense boom on the offense is ticking okay the offense is going and Lsu we can do on defense and woman having both those games The the the defense started started poorly. The offense started poorly. If the offense I fix the defense necks and here they are in the Super Bowl right. Well we get some extra time here on this segment because we don't really have a ton to talk about beyond what we've already discussed here for the Super Bowl so with a little bit of extra time we do have a you have see this weekend. Not nearly as much fanfare as last week. SARONIC McGregor speaking of that. How did that fight wind up going free last week? It did go well for us. I mean unfortunately maybe I you know too many of your listeners picked up suggesting that the the sharper played was McGregor by knockout. TKO That taught obviously well for that. That's kind of where the value was but still still had a lot of money on just I again. I touched on before it was almost like the you know the reputation that McGregor has kind of makes people want to see him lose they WANNA bet against when they want to say. Hey I'm the guy who bet against him. Winsor only knocked motor. What have you so we had a lot of a lot of bets? Required exposed to ceremony was the you know is a a big decision for us. A five figure decision. We obviously got out well without one. McGregor was just kind of funny at the end like it was like he was running for politics or shaken hands ends kissing babies and stuff like that or maybe you know kissing opponents and shaking grammas and holding hugging grandma's and stuff like that it was. It was quite interesting to see him out. There though is like a different Conor McGregor. Maybe you know. Maybe he's going to be more personal art shows. We take a look at this weekend's car down in Raleigh North Carolina you have see on ESPN plus plus twenty four UFC. Fight night one sixty six. There's like eighteen different names for all these events here in the UFC. But what are what are some of the sharp plays is that we're looking at here for this weekend that you've seen some sharp action there at. GSI Yeah on the undercard a couple of fights. Serra McMahon is one right to get sharp box in there on that came in at minus one forty there and I think she's just kind of being being undervalues off a couple of losses stuff like that but she's just she's just to goodness prices. Seems you know what one forty was. A was a sharp lane. I kind of see the logic behind that one I also have a burns burns on land. where now burns? He's he's was a small favourite and he slipped to a small dog right now. Even money's where he got played by sharp money and these guys are newcomers on with UFC. But if you look at burn what he's done it just seems like he's he's got. He's a better submission threat and he's face better opposition. You can see stuff going that way. In terms of his his favor the Townsend Lewis fight over one and a half that Kim minus one fifty five the over minus one ninety whole markets. Move that one as as well. Lewis is kind of in spots. Where he's he's gotTa Win you know? He's good striking good in the clinches. Well and and Townsend. He's a good solid opponent. He does you know he's he's a good striker from rains and stuff like that. Okay when you can set the pace but you know. He's just not a hard enough hitter as well to not. You know to to send this out early so I kind of agree with the over one and a half says is while the to the you know. The main event in Col- main event I guess you will with San Hose and they'll sandals and blades. I do have sharp money on the over there with the main event and blade so that one I kind of got pseudo sharp money on India GSA fight over as well new blades. Very interesting you look at his record. He's he's the guy who wasn't division he'd be. You could argue. He's probably Bobby. Blades is probably the heavyweight champion winning while just kinda matter of time before he gets there he still by UFC terms. He's still a young twenty eight on they'll Santos now is he's. He's long in the tooth. Yeah but he's a solid better. He's around thirty five years old. He's you know quality gatekeeper. If if you will I think with him as he just it takes you know aggression and kind of power to back him up and and blades. The ice is going to be effective. I think but it's just you know style fights. I think this one favors blades lades now. He's a big favorite. I think he opened to forty five to fifty to fifty five. So horse and a dramatic move but I think the style wise suits plays well. I think he's probably just going back though Santos up into the fence and get some take down and control and stuff like that so I kind of see the logic behind the over in this one and getting plus one fifty obviously saw money to go with it Brent. The head risk manager down at the sports book with us for this week's version of the odds report Brent always a pleasure man good to chat a couple of different sports betting markets with the here over the last two weeks and look forward to our Super Bowl Extravaganza. Next week. We're showing our versatility definitely are thanks a lot man. We'll talk to you next week. Thanks again for me on atom.

San Francisco Kansas City Kansas City Jimmy G. NFL risk manager Brent UFC chiefs Pat Mahomes Cisco McGregor NBA baseball Townsend Lewis San Fran Orlando
Every Trigger is an Opening- Podcast #529

Zen Parenting Radio

1:04:12 hr | 1 year ago

Every Trigger is an Opening- Podcast #529

"Do here we go. My Name's todd. This is Kathy. Welcome back to parenting radio. This podcast number. Five hundred twenty eighty nine wireless news then parenting radio because you'll feel outstanding Outstanding remember that. The best predictor of Charles will being parents self-understanding on today's show. Follow from last week's podcast. What do we call it? Wounds and triggers and triggers. Kind of a lot of feedback on that one may May. Maybe we touched a nerve. Hopefully they're not what we would trigger them. Probably probably but first few different things we have is then talk later on today. Hey this is something we do with the teams N.. US questions we answer we have discussions. We support each other. It's alive podcast hundred percent support support. What is it what? What's her tagline? I don't remember one hundred percent. Where's my water bottle? Some two hundred percents hero zero pressure one hundred percent support. Thank you try. Beating January twenty ninth January thirtieth We're doing a bystander. Moment screening partnering with Navigator Lessons Raising Confident daughter February fourth February twelfth. You're going to be in Bloomingdale and the about self awareness S. and self compassion and self care I think exactly right and then February twenty eight twenty eighth and twenty nine. That's the big one the conference. That's it's the granddaddy of Mall Sweetie. Yes Os and parenting conference. It is so if you want to know more about our speakers goto Zen parenting conference DOT ECOMMERCE end. PARENTING RADIO DOT COM and click on events. When you click on events you'll see all the events attached just mentioned so it will give you all the information about where they are in time and place and whether or not you need need tickets or to register but the conference Jump on it now because it's very soon and you WanNa make sure you can make your plan Google calendar do that. That's where we put things in the works. Well that's your. What people did before Google calendars just regular calendars? I used to have like a regular chair. Lurs like Chandler's the when you're little. Didn't you have an assignment. Notebook called Chandler's assignment notebook. I had like maybe I always think about it. Is like Covey wasn't Franklin Covey. You know that's really professionals. I'm talking like sixth grade stuff. Oh I don't remember what I used in sixth grade. I just know that we all had called Chandler's not like Chan their bane. I don't like I had that in. dekalb didn't float all the way west to think we had chandler's I think we had to take care of our own schedule. You guys are writing rocks rock town bad but I think there is an expectation that we just wrote it down in a notebook great. Death spiral bound a notebook. But once I was a in college and going forward I always had a Franklin covey planner and I miss those used to carry it around. It's like got a little diary of your whole life to Stephen Covey. I do you ever met. Stephen Covey did meet Stephen Covey twice and I sat by him at lunch once. Got To chat with them introduce him was he is impressive of a man in his in person as he was in his writing he was very kind and very very word. I'm looking for. He didn't he didn't seem like he needed a lot. What how do I explain? That he was very comfortable in has skin low-maintenance yeah very low maintenance and really good speaker and was very focused and organized and I always always loved hearing them speak and talking with them. Do you know what the pros The the publishing places and all the people that have anything to do with deciding books in names of books. They said nobody will ever buy a book. That has such a long title. I know seven habits of highly effective. People it doesn't matter what it's called if it's good it's going to sell well and since then everybody has borrowed his because now. If you're trying to publish your book everyone wants to know how many components opponents the twenty questions you ask yourself the fifteen ways to be a good speaker the ten ways to change your life like it's kind of annoying because there it really constricts us in the way that we view things to framework that certain people's brain including mine like okay. I get it twenty things. Give it it to me one at a time but it's Baloney because it's not just twenty things it's a it's A. I shouldn't say it's Baloney. I think that like I love seven habits and it was completely effective. But for people like me who see things in a much bigger framework It's not better. It's just bigger saying they're seven things to do so it's that's that's not true. I think there's only one thing to do that. I just read a book saying the one thing you need to do to survive in this world. They'll have three ED pages and they'll just say breath and everyone. I know yeah. Yeah I just stemming deep thoughts about books right now in such the middle of all of that in the throes in the throes of the publishing world right now and it's interesting interesting. So so that shall we move on. Let's jump okay so Wounds and triggers. So I wanted to talk about People have to listen to the last week to listen to them. They don't I think if you listen to last week's you'll kind of this will be a a a very natural continuation. If you didn't listen to last week I think today will still be helpful. I and then if you really liked today then you can go back and listen to it but you don't have to stop. You can just listen so so majority of e mails we got. Were so just to kind of give you a little perspective about we talked about last week we were talking about what a wound is and you know that we have healthy parts and we have wounded parts and that sometimes are wounded. Parts tend to take over and be really reactive. We talked about Where childhood wounding ending comes from? You know. Sometimes it's an attachment wound sometimes. It's a trauma wound. We also talked about What a trigger is which basically means that one of your wounds has ben touched And we were talking about other people who've discuss this like Eker totally causes the pain body in in this example. You know Michael Singer who you recommended that book last week you know the untethered soul he talks about that. Those are like thorns that we have and that if you like touch a thorn than we he kinda go off. It's like we. We can't tolerate certain things because the wound that we have around onto that issue is so deep that we have a strong reaction definition of being triggered very tender like. It'll if you just get scraped this piece then it'll hurt a lot plot. It hurts beyond what the present moment is really having or experiencing or offering you. It's really not in present time you're reacting reacting from something from your history and whatever's coming up in present time is activating it and one of the you know the examples I used. Is that when you are triggered. It's almost like pressing a play button and you are replaying the wounding experience you had. You aren't doing it by choice. Yes this is what our body on brain does is. We haven't experienced is very similar and all the sudden it gets. It's like we you know. Like I said push a play button and we relive all those feelings and fear or feelings and then maybe shame whatever it may be whatever it evokes in us. I was thinking about. This is a little different but hang with me for a second. You guys ever like. Do something like you'll be folding laundry. Dri and listening to a podcast or like the other night. I was painting. My toenails and I was listening to a song and so you're having that experience in those two things are happening happening at once and then this morning I got out of the shower and I was kind of a touching my toenail and the song that I was listening to while I was painting. My toenails came into my head. Oh good okay or sometimes reminder completely because you have in your brain they got a little bit. They got a little hardwired. You if not hardwired a little bonded for that that moment and or you'll be like you know. I'll pull out a piece of clothing that I remember folding and I'll be like Oh yeah I was listening to Ronin Pharaohs podcast. I've a huge crush. Dan Ronan Farrow. You've listened to about different PODCASTS. That that guy has been interviewed. aww He's got his own podcast for those people don't know who you're talking about. Who are you talking about? So I'm talking about Ronan Farrow. Who is a journalist and he is the one who one of the people along with Megan twohey and Jodi Cantor Broke the Harvey Weinstein Story. He was with the New York Kerr and they were at the New York Times so they were doing it. Simultaneously but Ronin in in is also there's so much history I mean where would I began like. I've kind of been following him even before this just because I know all this if somebody wanted to be like Oh yeah that guy. I like what he's done. Or what would you recommend okay. That's easy read catch and kill which is his book? That came out this year era and then listened to the catch and kill podcast. And he's been on every do one I you listen to podcasts. Read the book I because then it makes the podcast so interesting. Because because he's interviewing all the people that he had in his book got so I loved catch and kill. It was like everything that I love. Because not only I it. It wasn't a hundred percent satisfying because Harvey Weinstein is still on trial and not a lot has changed in. I mean some things have changed but it still feels like everything. There's a little bit untethered but I just really have a crush on him and he's but he you don't need to worry todd goodness because he's thirty two and he he is gay and he is engaged and feel safe even if he was straight. You would say okay. Well how about this. This is us the other night when the girl wins. Sophia Bush was. She got the okay from her husband Hall Pass Hall. Pass to sleep with Kevin Because Kevin plays a character actor on his character is an actor on. TV's so Sophia Bush's character had a hall pass for this this actor actor actor in the show. Yeah and then. She's like I can't do it. I wonder how many times there's been a successful hall pass. Sexual interactions never going going to be successful because the person who gave you that hall past doesn't really think that's going to happen. That's talk about going off the deep end in a completely different. They just wonder how many times like somebody happens to meet a celebrity. Like has it ever happened on friends. Remember Isabella Rossellini. Right though. Well you're right but he does like I'm going to bet in this big huge expansive world and billions of people people. I'm willing to bet it has never happened. No it's happened really especially someone who works in the industry our lives in L. A. or in New York or happens to be in a play. It was someone that you I guess. I guess it would need to be somebody that is like in normal regular not attached to the Hollywood life happens to meet whatever whatever Alec Baldwin or some only meet them but have the opportunity to get to know that that person is attracted to them and then they say Hook Up. I don't know if it's like a rock concert and somebody's like some woman really likes whatever. Vince Neal for Motley crue who. That's my guy right and then the the girl says the husband just you know that's my guy and the girl. All of a sudden finds herself backstage and maybe Vince Neal had sex with everybody back then. So it's probably happened. That's when I mean like you don't there's no way we say it's never happened. Of course it has but I think in this instance were okay. I I really do have a crush on Ronan Farrow. Think about them a lot He's thirty two and he's like US reindel younger guys I know he went to college when he was eleven. So few of us out there. He went to law school when he was eighteen bill. He's so cool and he has such like a I just love his energy. I love listening to him and I I love listening to you guys. Listen to pod Save America. He is engaged to John Farrell. No no not John. He's he's engaged the other guy. Yeah Not Tommy. WHO's engaged to podcasts? I have to John John Lovett. John Love love of it or leave is so weird because Jon favreau to John Fabrics. And there's two Jon Lovitz right certain line that I know they have to so he usually goes by Jonathan but anyway a day. I loved listening to Jonathan Interview. Ronin on pod Save America. That was fun. Anyway they're together we're together life is fine yes So okay so let's go back to the wounds and the triggers so the emails todd night got about this podcast from last week was about People saying it first of all like you said that it touched a nerve or that they needed to hear it or that they're recognizing recognizing their own wounds or whatever it may be and then a lot of the The commentary was. I can't talk to the person who hurt me. It'd be my mother or an ex partner or whatever because they won't understand therefore I can't heal my wounds and I think that's the first thing the first misunderstanding I I want to get out of the way is that you don't need to get their buy in for you to choose to heal yourself. This is like the whole idea idea forgiveness. People sometimes think forgiveness means you go to the person s for ask for it. They apologized to you and give you everything you wanted. Not The way it works. It doesn't work at all that way you. I don't need that person's buying for you to start looking at how you were harmed and you don't need them to say yes you're right. I did that for you to recognize that you were harmed. Here's the thing that's most important about the reason why we have to understand our healthy parts and our wounded parts is if if you are wounded there is sometimes we look around us and we say somebody else has to acknowledge that this was wounding. And we're lucky because if you have a therapist poster a coach or a partner a best friend who understands. They can validate that for you but really there's other parts of you the healthier parts that can be that validating validating source to you. You know like you can do this completely internally like it's very I am a big Fan of therapy and coaching the and and speaking about your pain. So I'm not saying you have to do it by yourself. I think. Get the help you need. But I I want to be clear that this this is an internal job and the coaches and therapists. They're they're unhappy but it's still an inside job. You have to believe that they they're we're not going to be able to say okay. Now you're healed. This has to be something you can believe in yourself and I have found that my healthy parts help validate my wounded parts. Because here let me tell this story and this for me or for anybody else. Their parts of us that were wounded by something thing that a lot of people say is no big deal or a lot of people will say well. I had a worse story. Or you're lucky or that's really not that bad or in the moment when we were wounded had someone looked at us and said something. Like what's wrong with you. You're going to cry about that. You can't get over that you're not strong enough or we. Basically in that moment probably nobly felt bad then maybe compiled where we got. We felt ashamed that we felt bad. And then we created the story around it where we were like I shouldn't have been bothered by that. How how weaken my because I was bothered by that and then there's all these layers on top of it you see how like and the truth is if something hurts Kirch you? It doesn't matter if there's consensus from the outside world that it hurts you and it doesn't matter where your pain is is in comparison to other people's pain because we're not in competition here. The goal is not to say who's hurt more. It's to acknowledge that there's something in in the way for us some kind of pain that we have an acknowledged and maybe like even in again we may not even know where it began like one. I can talk about for myself. Is that I kind of never wanted anyone to think that they hurt me so I would. which changed sign of strength? And But but I'm vinyl invulnerability. Yes I don't want to let them know. They got that. He was worse than that tidy. It wasn't because sometimes sometimes that the I don't want anyone to think they hurt me shows up as I'm going to be tough and you didn't hurt me. That's not what it was. Someone would say something mean to me and I would say that. That's funny or no that's okay No no I know what you meant. No no it's no big deal so I'm not putting on a tough huff act. I am making sure they feel comfortable with their ignorance. Yeah do you see what I mean. I am willing to take the hit of the pain as long as they're comfortable and that is there who knows where that began. I mean I have some guesses I've gone through a lot of these wounds but the point is is that we start to that then becomes our the way that we operate in the world and so let me say this. WE'RE GONNA we'll dive back into forgiveness in a second but the reason reason why this is so important is because if we don't know what our wounds are then we are reacting from them constantly. Okay if you really believe oh I'm over that or I don't need to look at that or that's not important than your behavior will be a reflection of your wounds. That have gone unchecked. If you at least know what your wounds are and you can acknowledge that and you can be like yes. I was hurt by this or this scares me or this is still bothersome to me. Then you at least have a little room to respond rather than react. DC what I mean like you can instead of being triggered and someone hits your thorn and you just react you may get your Horn Horn your thorne hit and you may hold it and say ooh that hurts. Let me tell you why that hurts me or I need some time to kind of get you know as you would say be above the line so we we can have this conversation so at least you're aware there's a wound then you can talk about it and respond so I agree with you. Step one is no that this is a wound right just got triggered or whatever it is and maybe I'm skipping a few steps but one of the steps is where does this wound generate generate from an most or maybe always it generates from some part of your history Right the tricky part is how in the world. Because I could speak for myself. I'm pretty good at knowing when I'm wounded but if I have to go back in the child and say like what does this remind me of. This reminds me of when my dad. This this this to me or or my kids. My friends make fun of me on the field. Or because I'm drop the pass like that's for me really hard to access where where this comes from. Well this is good news because you don't have to know the exact moment you don't even have to know the story. Because sometimes our brain has compartmentalize xanten place. That's safe because the story is painful but we do know that we have a feeling around something like if like I. I know that if if you don't hear me or listen to me and I can tell that you're not listening to me. I am affected by that so I know that there's something for my history that I didn't feel heard word now. I don't have one story for you. I don't have like this is who did it to me or like a painful sob story about this person or my parents are I. I just know there's something in my history where I know that not being. It could be a collective unconsciousness it could be the collective consciousness of women from generation generations nations paired. Here's the thing real quick though where I struggle is. You're talking. I'm not listening. It affects you. The question is sometimes times. Forget about history and triggers and moons. It's just rude to not listen so like how do you tell when something. Hey He's not listening learning and I am annoyed and or he's not listening and this goes deeper and further back like there's like some there's a logical to it like maybe there is no it's like brick and listen to me you know. There is no wound. Like how do you differentiate between between just natural pleasantries within a conversation of talking and listening and there's something deeper going on here. Well the it's going to be individual individual but to me. It's the reaction that I have to it because if someone's not listening and they're not you and it's just somebody else I may say. Do you need a second or want me to repeat that right like I'm not really offended by the fact that someone was you know maybe looking at their phone or I can use humor because it's present time so like sometimes I'll be at lunch was someone and I'll be telling them a story and they're like texting and I will say something like. Do you need me to wait like I use humor because I'm not really offended. In that moment I can tell that my a reaction or my response is present time but if you or maybe the person I was with who may be meant a lot to me or I was I really did want I want them to hear me for whatever reason and my reaction was to be really hurt or wounded or I shut down or I I. I'm I shut down. I don't respond with anger but people who do respond with anger who have an over the top response to this. You can tell that you know we've said this before if it's hysterical hysterical. It's historical versus so I don't have any cut and dried. Here's the top ten reasons tufted ways you know but you can tell hell by your reaction which requires self awareness. No there's a re-export real quick and I'm sure we talked about this on dozens of podcast. Yes but why. Let's just stick with the. I'm not listening to you example. Why would it? I think you'd be more likely to get triggered if I wasn't listening. Verses says somebody that you is just random. Fred cracked so help me remember one more time why I am more likely to trigger you than an acquaintance acquaintance because most likely I was triggered by a caregiver of some kind in it could have been a teacher could have been a coach. Could my parents could have been my sister and and that relationship that I had with them was close and carrying and I felt safe. They were like part of my safety and my security. That's who you are to me. Okay so you are like you have caregiver energy even if you're not literally my caregiver just closeness or whatever it is and if there is somebody who I don't know oh where someone for work or whatever. It's not that I when I say don't care about them. I don't mean that literally. Of course I care about them but they are not part of my team. They're not part part of my life in a way that can you know we're always affected more by the ones we love the most because we we feel they a our our security they are family they and when they don't hear us or see us or understand it hurts ten times more than a stranger ray okay and then the irony is let me flip this on its head for a second. The irony is sometimes in our relationships. We pay more attention to what a stranger thinks. Thanks about us than what our own child or partner thinks about us like we eat so interesting how can I talk about the inner circle. Go ahead did I not clearly explain the circle of trust you greg. I think I got it then. Is there something you WanNa tell me. I I don't think so. Did we have a discussion yesterday in the car about this. Oh Yes yes I mean me and Pam yes I would love talk to you talking about. We're talking about you. See if I can't trust you greg than I have no choice but to put you right back outside the circle and once you're out you're Out there's no coming back. Well I would definitely like stay inside the circle. Tell me the truth. This is great. Okay all right and I looked proper Robert. I'm a patient man. That's nineteen Muslim Vietnamese. Prison Campbell. Duty but I will be watching you studying your every move and if I I find that you are trying to corrupt my firstborn child. I will bring you down baby. I will bring you down to Chinatown Sweetie. I'm in the inner circle or you're in my inner circle yes you are. I have no idea for your part of that. Seem like there's like a five supplies like Jack. I duNNo. We're talking about okay. How many times have we all been in that situation? Shin high now where. Somebody's talking to us and we don't have a freaking clue what they're talking about part of that is because who they're talking to in that moment is not you. They are talking into their person from their past. And so stay with me everybody. What I'm saying is when you are throwing a bunch of stuff out at someone in present time and they have no idea what you're talking talking about you can pretty much especially if you're coming from like a really emotional place you're basically still talking to the person from your past by the way that was sir? Robert Deniro talking to Ben Stiller from meet the parents. Yes yes yes yes so I wanna say something else about this About time healing healing wound before you do that. Can I interrupt talk about our partner. The week prodigy prodigy is an online math platform loved by more than fifty million first to eighth grade students and one point five million teachers worldwide with their premium membership. They get extra features and fund rewards like exclusive pet characters gear and accessories. That will give leave your child more incentive to play and keep them engaged with math practice. If you're not familiar prodigy this game takes kids fantasy world full of epic battles and adventure venture were success involves answering curriculum align math questions with a premium membership. Students often spend more time in the game which leads to more questions. Answered Word and more math skills mastered and with monthly yearly or even family memberships. You can find the premium membership that works for your family. Check out the prodigy premium memberships ships page to find out how you can level up math learning and unlock your child's full potential visit prodigy game dot com slash en parenting and click. Get your free account. Ought to get started all right now go back to this so I wanted to talk about. How time heals wounds so a lot of people say that right? It's a time heals all wounds and I mean I think that again like all things. There's a Lotta Gray in here. I think that personally speaking I have Had painful experiences like you know the way I in my dad's been gone for a few years. Now he passed away a few years ago. Obviously the way I feel now is very different than I felt right right after he while he was sick or when he died so of course time makes it a little easier to sit with something painful but I think in the Kinda hind wounds we're talking about right now That time doesn't necessarily get rid of. I agree with you. I think so. It depends on the wound. It does because we need to. We were still reacting from that old place even happen even if it happened when we were five so time is not healing that wound. We were still responding from that place so it is we are. Do I want to say this. I wrote a bunch of words and I didn't right like a clear myself so if we are continually lashing out at people about something that happened a long time ago. Meaning we're very I'M GONNA use the word again triggered by something or easily offended by something or we just just go into really childlike place when someone says something. Time isn't going to do anything about that. We eventually have to go into that and at least acknowledge what it is and to. Todd's point the question that he had before about board. If we don't know what it is you don't have to know the story. Can you just at least be able to say when you say that word back to me or when you make. Don't make eye contact with me or win. I feel like you don't listen or whatever it may be I feel really afraid I feel like I need to be defensive. That's that in itself is a huge step and it's vulnerable and some people if they've done enough work and have enough self awareness. They can trace it back to a time a person a place maybe not the exact experience because most likely it happened over and over over and over again the tr- you know I was talking about wounds. Before like attachment wounds are things that happen repeatedly messages that get conveyed repeatedly and they they're rejecting our neglectful or like we talk but in meshing are shaming or just my favorite just miss a tuned and it happens over over and over so you don't have one story. A trauma wound can come from like one experience a physical or sexual inexperience. That is threatening or feels. Feels scarier where you were harmed but most things. We can't trace it to one experience but we can be honest enough to at least say I feel scared scared or I feel threatened or I feel misunderstood when you say that well and it could be as simple trying to obviously always try to get resources but one is is you can if you find yourself triggered you have the awareness that like. Oh my God I'm triggered. You can answer this simple question or finish a statement from the past this reminds go dot dot dot. My problem is most of the time like I don't. I have no clue but it's because I'm not dropping into my heart center. Are you know I'm still like coming at this from my logical brain. That's what I was GONNA say there's part of you that I think thinks you're above all of it and that sounds horrible it. It sounds like I'm saying you think you're too smart. I feel like I can't get there but it's the same thing I'm using words that sound a little more shaming and I. That's not my intention attention but I think sometimes you're like that doesn't affect me and you. Yeah that's what I'm just like putting up a wall right and that is where you're like. I don't know why this affects you or bothers you. This doesn't affect me. Gene and there is a component where we're both being harmed in that situation because I feel like you're saying that there's some kind of weakness or sensitivity that I have that I should have and you don't be so sensitive about these things about these insensitive comments I'm saying and you are basically saying look. What a rock solid guy I am like I'm I don't get affected and I can handle anything and there is in both of our experiences? There's positive like yours that you can be really good in crisis mino is that I really do feel what's happening in a room so sometimes you're missing it you know so it's like neither of us are wrong and neither of us. It's it's not like you're above me or I'm above you but there is I think for you a sense sometimes where you're like. Why would I go house this sentence it with you why I would go into something painful like I think there's part of me that's like why would I is short term long term correct? Because my answer is I don't WanNa go there because that's going to hurt right. The long term is if I go oh there and go through it right come out clean and better and stronger and more confident or more loving on the other side or more understanding of yourself because because like there it's not like there's a lot of behaviors you need to correct. I think that you're very kind and compassionate like there's nothing where Mike while you need to get that anger under control. That's that's not an issue for you But I think that there would be things that would make more sense to you. I think it would enrich your your life for sure and I actually did a little bit of that this weekend. I was on my my annual men's retreat and you know everybody twenty two guys that were part part of it and I saw a lot of guys kind of going back and healing some of these wounds and it's just so empowering to see and so anyways shout out to all you guys were there with me this weekend well like hear hear me on this and this may be able to give you some like understanding of of you and people say this about me by the way but I uh well let me start with you and then I'll I'll say this about me. I think sometimes you go through life thinking how do I understand other people better. How Kathy how do I understand you better? How do I understand these sky's better? How do I understand doing my work? And you're working. You think everybody else needs to be understood that you're kind of fine and that everybody else needs to be understood the people that I get that pushback from people. I work with where they're like. You know we're sharing all these vulnerabilities. You're not but there are certain situations where I am in like when I'm running a group or when I'm doing one on one worker one on family work with people that's not my time to be vulnerable. But I do have therapist and I do have people you know a few people my life including you who I'm very I can go into pot o' wetter like where it can be like. I can't see this clearly so I think that's the thing is there is a version of the world and this is not just about todd night. The reason I'm bringing this up is I think a lot of us especially in correct. Correct me if I'm wrong. Todd I don't want to talk about men out of turn but I think men a lot or like how do I understand my wife. And how do I get to know. And they're not looking at themselves course now. They're looking at everybody else. As the problem I can only say that for myself I. I'm always trying to like process somebody or or help support you because everything's directed outward I- too scared to look in the mirror and see look into my own past and you know it's it's a scary place to be right and and as guys were. You can't be scared if you're scared you're not a man right and the end so it's better to just not even be scared and say put up the wall man well and it's interesting so let's go into that idea because what I see I do. Em Dr with my therapist. And what I have found is in present time you get crack and what that means is something in present time bothers you more than it should like what I always say to. Her is this thing saying is really bothering me and it does. It feels out of context feels bigger than it should be. And that is the crack into the wound DC would would. I mean that you don't have to be like I'm just going to do a bunch of inner child work in. Just talk to my inner child if you are having inexperience in present time that is completely blown out of proportion. That's like the portal. That's the gateway to that pain from your path for sure and his funny was having to me this weekend. In an without getting details there is a point and the weekend where I was challenged to go inward and I there was a crack and you know I started started. What's the word? There's word that one of the guys in the weekend said rationalizing. No no no. I started going there and then and then I myself My lip starts quivering. Yes thank you taught out quiver and I got there. And if they'll good like but that was the crack but I couldn't dive in right. That's as far as I. I can go in that moment. That's fine whereas other guys they see the crack and then they just. There's no longer a crack. They're just jumping in with both racks. And so we all need to bless myself itself like the quiver was good like I'm okay with the quiver. A not going to shame myself because that's as far as I can go right so yeah and that's you know the exactly like there is no like well it should have been better. It should have been deeper. It's pretty good. I mean at least they're at least you're acknowledging the crack at least there is like you you know and again as the quote says you know that's how the light gets in like if you acknowledges crack there and you like step into it and feel it that's how it's not about and again again we've talked about this a lot on the show but I wanna be clear. Healing does not mean all that pain goes away. It means you can hold the pain without shame game you can see it for what it was and you can give yourself some peace about that. Something happened and now you know. Now you understand something about yourself now you you hold it gently like a kid when we say on this podcast all-time Peel field. One Layer. I call it. Like chipping away. You're chipping away at it man and then you think like. I haven't felt this way since my late thirties. Forty eight now but some some things have been so profound for me. Some awareness is or you know realizations that I've had about myself for whatever that I've been like. Wow I am they're like I now. I'm completely clear and it never ends. But that doesn't need to scare you it I'm talking to everybody listening right now. You don't need to be afraid of that. It's the recognition that anything that is affecting us. Our brain is processing in a certain way in taking us back in time because our brain likes to. We like to see patterns right and so when something I feel like a pattern it like you. I've experienced this before. Oh it's GonNa feel like this who it's going to be scary. Things are GONNA go bad again our history if we had bad experiences give us a maladaptive viewpoint. Remember when I talked about this last week like if something negative happened to us when we were seven and we knew there was nothing we could do about it because we depended on others. There's no one talk to you. It gave us a maladaptive viewpoint of I can't trust anybody now at forty eight. I may have experienced. That gives me that feeling of powerlessness us. But I have to acknowledge it and say you know what all the things that were happening. Then they're not true right now even though I acknowledge that pain and I don't push it away now now. I can have a more adaptive viewpoint on this this present time experience so I have A. I have a question for you. I'm going to play a clip from a movie and it's always always the clip that I was referred to. You might even know where where am I going. It's good will hunting rate and this rate and I have very few of these. Let's just say that so we're gonNA play it just because it's an awesome movie. Look at me. It's not your fault bolt. It's not your fault I'm no so you know it's not your fault. It's not your fault it's not your fault your fault. It's not your fault with me. All right don't you you fault So powerful scene and that Ah yes so just few things what we have been talking about. The first one is that Sean is the outside person or speaking up for wills healthy parts. Yes okay yes so. If will was doing this work on his own which he cannot hot right. You can't be as healthy parts saying you didn't do anything to deserve this. It's not your fault. We have dialogue in his head. Correct so shawn like his. We'll pain lived ruled his life. It right chose. It made his choices so I went to jail guy girlfriend Schuyler who we named her daughter after I did but go hi did anyway and and he so and Sean had to keep saying that now what ended up happening the part of him that that has been protecting him. This whole time spoke up and said stop it. I'm not going there. which is kind of what happens with you after when you start to get close to crying there is a part of you? That was adaptive as a child. Yes but is now maladaptive because captain meaning good. Help me if you missed if if you were playing baseball and you're playing second base and you missed a ball and that was devastating devastating to your sense of self or you had a party yourself. That said do not cry right. The term. I use for that as my risk manager my manager's it shows up and shut that shutdown got it. Okay sorry everybody with their children but yeah shut that down. Use that risk manager is still really got a big level job in your life very much. Yes he's like less now than ten years ago but yes he's he is well well. Ten years ago your joker was more not joker Joaquin Phoenix. But your silly person. You're timmy was just as as loud loud as your risk manager which they're actually at odds a little bit much better not to so. Timmy is So we're gonNA tell the story and I was city drunk with a bunch of my friends and when I'm sometimes when I had drunk Doric you don't do this anymore. One even sometime until silver I just I just regret childhood and sometimes a healthy way like I become joyful playful and all that sort of big huge balloon tied on my wrist now like twenty eight years old and I just came out of the bar and all my friends are out there and some guy walks by me and who I didn't know and he goes. Oh Look Timmy. Went to the fair today so that so now my question is how does timmy. Timmy wasn't protection for you too. Okay because Timmy Timmy. Just thought life Timmy's like life is tough but I'm GONNA have fun. Yes and I love to. Timmy is a child and Timmy. Can't can't have three children and a wife and pay attention to call that. But it's okay if to me shows up every known okay and Timmy will never go away like this. This is the thing about our parts even early 'cause and I'm not talking about me and talking about all of us like don't ever lose that. Well here's the thing. Every part of us that it is wounded is not meaner evil. It's wounded yeah so if you can acknowledge that wounded part of the country you poorly early right. 'cause the this gets so intricate and like please everybody listening just disclaimer. Go Talk to your therapist about this. Okay Eh Tondo. You're having a discussion about our own. You know you can't don't sit here and do some analyzing of yourself and say that's it. This is work or that. That'd be a start but then go talk to your therapist about there because this is inner child work every piece of you my belief system and I I know this fact for me but you guys have to take what we are born. Good every part of good we are pure. We are all those beautiful things then things happen. We learn things things that don't jive with. Who who we are someone hurt society? Parents coaches exactly school education. Even some good things can hurt us and then all these pieces of us some some of them are mad for good reason. Some of them are protective like wills that protective part saved his but so many times but it also got him into fights on the schoolyard and your part that showed up for you was so helpful full in baseball. Or maybe with your brother or maybe more you know. My parents are fighting ahead to shut down the problem. Is I no longer seven seven years old hiding underneath the covers hoping my parents are going to fight anymore and forty seven right and I need to be vulnerable and accessible to the people around me and that protector. I don't you know what it looks like to you. I don't know who what the name is of that protector. That protector needs to know. You're okay and unless you acknowledge that protector and give it some room to talk to you and allow it to say. But you're I'm protecting you from this pain underneath. This is a layer thing it's saying do you really WanNa feel this uh-huh because I've been protecting you and you can say protector. Thank God you're there and please don't go away just it's okay to back up when those tears WanNa come out so this yeah. I don't know if this is going to translate but this weekend I am one Guy Cantu less minute for the retreat. Writes last minute an hour before. Everybody's supposed to get there and I got really really pissed in some of the guys that were with me so that I shut down okay so we went through this process and the guy. WHO's helping me lead this kind of helping me facilitate through this thing? He's like tied your risk manager. Protector is always trying to help you but can you give him a break just for a second and and he said pick a man in the circle to represent that risk manager so that we can do some work together and that helped so it was interesting so literally there was a man Imbaba being the manager that resides in rain. And he's now in front of me and I see it and he's a friend of mine but that's who he represents he can hold the place orange. Meanwhile as I'm going through this process the phone rings and I'm worried something else bad is going to happen for the weekend. And Frank Who's my co facilitator of the whole retreat answered it and I. I lost my presence in the situation because I was worried that something else bad was manager came back online so what I said the frank was. Will you. Please whisper to the risk manager that being the the man that was standing there. Can you please tell him so I so I can keep doing this work so anyways and then did what I kept. I kept moving through the process. Yeah that's the only way so anyways and for me see okay because we all have different from ways of doing this I do vision boards and I use imagination and creativity and mine is a little more years is very literal and mine is very very much like drawings and symbolic symbolic easy Buddhism. w-what symbolic word Vic. So are you sure. Symbol allergy analogy. I liked him. I better symbolism to me. Sounds like school and see so. This is very kathy. Ish that this conversation we're having is words. Everything feels like something to me so as soon as you say symbolism I go no that's not what I'm talking about symbolically if it's not a word in a find okay I'm gonNA use it anyway because that relays what my body feels okay and analogy the study or use of symbols. Okay good symbolic but even if it wasn't it would still be still use it and this is why people make up words sometimes because they're like my Chelsea or whatever you don't even have to call them your children your parts. You're healthy parts. You're not so healthy. Parts of your data for the language doesn't matter this is why everybody but he has a different. Yes it's just there's all these pieces of you and all of them deserve to be hurt so I wanna go back to the very beginning of what we talked about. Is that even. If you have a part that is hurt and the outside world or caregivers or anybody has told you. It shouldn't have been hurt that you're too. You're being too sensitive or you shouldn't have been hurt that part of you deeds to be heard if it's by your other healthy parts it's or somebody else and I'm saying this over and over again because especially for women I'm going to focus on women right now. We have been told our whole lives that we shouldn't feel feel the way we feel and I know that this is also true for people of Color especially women of color. You shouldn't feel this way because that's not what I'm trying to say so you shouldn't feel this way. You're the problem not always saying exactly so a lot of our parts have been really pushed aside in that we shouldn't I now. I'm ashamed that that bothered me. Somebody touch my body in such a way. I'm just kidding. Why is this watering so sensitive? Don't be so sensitive that I touched your body and then I'm thinking to myself okay. My being sensitive Im- I like a killjoy joy. Am I like not sexual enough you. This is an example that I think about the amount of time. How many times you think you've been inappropriate inappropriately? Talk whether it be in a crowded bar or whatever it's probably in the dozens fair to say well beyond that okay. Yeah think about that wound like it just keeps cropping like it probably sick of a scab like if you keep taking a scab off it gets worse and worse and worse especially when you keep majority of the time get told the same thing in which is you misinterpreted your you. You don't understand or you told me it was okay or I felt like it was there was there's always a reason and and even if it's I was drunk sorry there's always we have to like take it on ourselves and right now we're talking about sexual things but it's not always it could be emotional thing it could be. Let's let's take it off of sex for a second and say you know our partner or friend yelled at us and then and then the next day we say while that really hurt well I was tired. Tired was good. I was just kidding. You said the thing that pissed me out. So there's a lot of those wounded gaslight you they absolutely gas lighting. Oh my God go back and listen to our podcast about gas lighting. I think it was a couple months ago. If if you don't know what that word means so I guess my point is is that because I know we're probably getting to the end of the show is that won't podcast 507. What has gas lighting podcast? Five listen to that one you guys because the gas lighting is real and it's happening right now and a macro level with our government our leadership and it's and I'm sure it's happening on a micro level. Maybe be at work. Maybe in a partnership with children. So I guess my point is is that you your reaction to something in present time. mm-hmm may be over to heightened hysterical but a lot of times that's based on something you felt as a child that wasn't hysterical but is still not got hurt so let me go back to the original question. Then we'll finish up. which is I don't know how to heal whatever I'm feeling or not be triggered because the person who triggers me as never gonNA understand? You don't need to talk to them about it That's kind of relieving right. You don't need to talk to them about this as an inside job sometimes uh helps no of course like if I guess my point is is if you can talk to them about it but it's not a requirement to process through part of the healing like todd. It's not the reason that I don't feel hurt okay. But sometimes when Todd doesn't hear me my reaction to him is the way it would have been as a child if I can talk that through tied tide and he can understand it. That's helped helps me start the healing process right but if there's somebody that hurt me in the past who's now not here or I can't access her. They've they've passed away on the part of their life that I know they're not awakened enough to understand. I don't have to do that work with them. It's just like forgiveness like doc I need to be able to see what I experienced in. A certain way have compassion for what I experienced and search relieves. Some of the shame and pressure around it so well then. I don't feel that part of me doesn't feel unheard. I can do that work without that person around. And then when that person if that person person does come around again I will not give them. The power forgiveness is about taking your power back because if you're continually angry at somebody they have all the power because they can provoke all this anger and you can instead have some compassion for yourself. You don't even enough to go into them yet. That's a whole nother thing. That's where we could get into loving kindness meditation and or you know really having a visualization of them as a child you know work with Byron. Katie there's a million different tools in that too about. That's and that's a whole nother thing but you know this is I wanted to read one quote or maybe two quotes here This is A Ruby core Quote from milk and honey and it says do not look for healing at the feet of of those who broke you right. Oh that's nice. Isn't that nice and the other one. The other is also from milk and honey. Because obviously I've been reading quotes from lately rupee core so rupee cores person's name and milk and honey is the name of the book. Okay she says how you love yourself is how you teach others to love view so you. This is an inside job and there's no guarantees that the person from your past or your partner or kid is going to turn around and go. Oh you love yourself now I I love you. I don't guarantee that but that is the teaching if you are if you are harmful to yourself and you are self harming and self shaming people. Oh feel that energy and watch and follow your lead if they know they can get away with stuff with you. Because you're going to be it's it's this is it. You know the best predictor of a child's well being as apparent self understanding. Oh that's drop the MIC sweetie. Yes that's it okay. That was fun. Oh good I like that one. Good well and it's like the surface there's so much I would like we'll call it January. Ob Wounds and triggers month. They come up with something next next week We got a nice review on I tunes. Okay Abby Abby before before United States. I've been listening. Listen to totten Kathy for over a year and I swear it's the number one reason for my personal growth as a human wife and mother turn on one of the roads and the beginning jingle and todd's voice starting during the show instantly puts me in my much-needed head space. Oh good become more self aware mindful considering overall better person. Great job guys. Keep on truckin. That's what we call a positive trigger. Yes I didn't know. There was such thing as positive triggers shirt. That's why I was saying like I was when I'm painting my nails and then a song comes in my head. It's like or the triggers can be politics two triggers. Because who cares what was the towel thing The Nail Polish example. One more time that I was painting my toenails and then the song that that I was listening to while painting my toenails came back. My has made you think the towel thing or maybe the other way around. I don't remember but the thing about I remembered I was. I opened up. Something you know picked up something that I had folded listening to a podcast and then I remembered the podcast. When I picked it up those artists smell could be pas absolutely olfactory? Remember when I told told you that the other night raise a bell. I'm so smell sensitive shaving cream. This is what I'm talking about is that I don't. It's very hard with todd. Sometimes because sometimes I have to say to him like the shaving cream you used. The smell is bothering me. And it's not you todd or bothering me I'm so small sensitive that we're in such close proximity that I have to be that person who tells you these things and it's not super comfortable because I don't I want to thank you. I'm not offended as I'm annoyed that I gotta go pick and different shaving cream. 'cause I got to spend another three bucks right an only expended three bucks. This is super cheap. Cheap I literally have like generic foam. I Know Georgia. You pick what you pick out like that NEUTROGENA. It's various Sean. All there's no neutrogena shaving cream I don't know maybe I like the Yeah I think there's like aftershave lotion. So maybe I'll go so I do like smells but I have such a strong reaction to them will remember how the bionic man was like fast runner but the bionic woman could hear flake from a credible despite had the I take the is it a lot of things you can do. What of the Lindsay Wagner's at her name? She could run and jump like him but then like you said she had the bannock hearing you have the note and inasmuch as it can be good in certain situations food. Yeah like in certain situations. It's great NYC and good smells like I really can like walk into a situation be like Oh this like brings me back but it's also very distracting and the I can be one of those people you know in Yoga like I'm one of those people and I've never never had to do this but they say if you come into a yoga studio don't wear perfume don't I'm one of those people that they do that for because it can be really really distracting English sensory wise olfactory and what is the factory. What did we figure out? I said that and then I'm like again like symbol. Look it up while I talk about Jeremy Craft. He's a bald headed beauty and he is been our sponsor for all five hundred twenty nine podcasts. He does painting and remodeling throughout Chicagoland area. So if anybody out out there in Chicago is thinking of doing any type of painting of the Interior Exterior that our house remodeling a kitchen basement bathroom. Whatever Call Jeremy Six zero nine five six eighteen hundred avid code dot net? And I was going to say something else but I don't remember what it was so I'm actually putting an extra a in there and I shouldn't. It's it's just olfactory is OLAF actor. It's all factory relating to the sense of smell is what it means. An old faction is the like the chemicals locals that are going on in our body when we are forming our sense of smell so I have a good i. It's like Fairmont's I I mean. Honestly their positive to like I told told Todd when We first when I first met him in college he smelled so good and it wasn't like his Cologne because he didn't wear any didn't the shower that much. You just smelled good to me. Brush my teeth so I knew that. So there must have good Fairmont's together through you know bones interesting stay we should talk about fair modes. 'cause that's like the chemical that is this traction attraction nothing to do with how nice you are no me or it's like like it's like primal it's like a rock kilian prime all deal. Yeah like I don't know I just know that. There are certain people in India you. This is not about perfume this is not about like the it's about that. Todd just smelled a certain way that I I think it's very strange. No I think people know you're talking about are chemicals capable of acting like hormones outside the body of the secreting individual Oh to impact. The behavior of the receiving individual there are alarm pheromones food trail pheromones sex fare moans and many other that affect behavior here or psychology. Yes and do you want to know some some animals that have great sense of smell and can smell those kinds of things who bloodhounds announce sharks Turkey vultures. Yes Basset Hounds yes. I thought I'd share that because when I put it in all these animals came up one last plug Rogers behavioral health they are sponsoring Zen parent. Conference twenty twenty Rogers. B. H. Dot. Org Rg leading the industry in outcome. Driven patient care so look them up and then look for them at the CON. What's your website? Rogers be like boy. Ah Lake Herald DOT ORG So now we're going to play this little jingle that I like to call the then parenting theme which may be triggers positive. Yeah feelings and thoughts for people or or negative help not negative number. No Sweetie Kravis ten years ago. Frick Travis Gosh Darn you. That's a trigger. We need to figure out facilitate that one. You don't like it when people don't like you I I don't mind not true I don't mind G. will are making that up. You Care Travis I love you wherever you are. The crack was aired. And you didn't walk through. We know time drug it. Thanks for listening everyone. Remember to subscribe to the podcast. So you never miss an episode and feel free to leave a five star review on itunes. It helps people find us. Also subscribe and review our pop. Culturing podcast a gen-x viewpoint on movies and TV with an emphasis on personal growth and self awareness. It's basically the flip side of parenting radio. Do you want more than parenting. CHECK OUT OUR PODCAST. Otherwise known as teams in one of our team members described it. That's an advice column. Meets Group helped meets like-minded community with your twenty five dollars. Subscription you get to lives talks with an opportunity to ask us live questions plus plus a facebook community where he can interact or just listen to like minded parents. If you can't join us live you can still access all the xanax. The teams and Podcast App Zoo Parity conference twenty two thousand twenty s February twenty eighth and twenty nine will be discussing sex ED gender anxiety neuro diversity and healthy relationships Goethe's N.. PARENTING CONFERENCE DOT COM. Get your tickets interested in inviting us to speak at your conference or organization go to send parenting radio DOT COM and submit speaker request. And while you're there check out her upcoming events Sir can purchase one of my three bucks. Have you ever shopped via Amazon. You can help us out by first going through the Amazon link under the support US link on our homepage. It doesn't cost anything to you. I believe small commission from Amazon. And guys I want them on. Coaching Practices called coaching. For guys. You want to achieve a better work-life balance or deepen your relationships with loved ones we can talk in person phone facetime you choose. And don't forget about try Ben's group we have a virtual community from men over the world head on over to tribe men's group dot org org or shoot me an email at todd's parenting radio DOT com. It's an opportunity for guys to come together and talk about what really matters. Finally I want to give a special thanks to our founding partner. The journey craft. He's bald headed beauty. The company has avid. They do painting remodeling Chicagoland area. Go to avid. Co Dot net. Organ McCall at six three L.. Nine five six eighteen hundred. Thanks for all your love and support and keep on trying.

Todd partner Timmy Timmy risk manager Dan Ronan Farrow Wounds Chandler Stephen Covey Kathy Google Ronin America Ben Stiller DC Sophia Bush Franklin Covey Bloomingdale Charles
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31:51 min | 1 year ago

The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook CFB Week 12 & NFL Week 11 November 15, 2019

"It's cutting into your exercise time. It stabbing you in the back nine and it's attacking your peace of mind. It's pain and it's getting in between you and the life few onto live CD medic target your pain at its source. It's fast acting relief with active OTC ingredients plus the added benefits of THC free hemp oil. Get get back to your life with CBD medic available online and at CVS. These statements have not been evaluated by the FDA this product is not intended to diagnose treat cure or prevent any disease joined by Brent head risk manager down at sports book for this week's version of the odds report Brent. How's it going man going well? It's going well I mean it's it's busy time of year. Put it that way. It's a good thing. I mean the idle hands. Make Devil's work but yeah even called basketball being here. At least as you know there are basically Arnel L. Lulls and no del periods anymore. Which keeps you keeps the days passing by faster? I don't know if we've ever talked about it. Your College Basketball Fan Right. No we have doubts. He but no. I'm not either. Yeah no I just I just don't who would actually Kentucky got beat the other day right Evansville they were like Evansville. Yeah Yay twenty five point favorite. They lost at home there. That's my my contribution to your college basketball segment as a as a born Canadian and now a Costa Corregan even know what state Evansville then. Yes okay the state of Washington. No EVANSVILLE Indiana Sir but the reason Evansville in Washington. I'm sure there is. There's a Cleveland Tennessee. But people only talk about the one in Ohio. So yeah you're probably right. I guess we'll go. We'll go to the jeopardy judges on that one. Even though you didn't answer the reason is because even though I do dislike in college basketball I D I do enjoy basketball itself and I do enjoy playing the game and the reason I know that there is Evansville in the state of Washington is because every summer the team would go down there for a basketball account. They have a pretty well. Well no basketball camp there so even us from Canada came down there for for the basketball camp so thus I know Evansville Washington very good basketball player. No where are you a pretty good basketball player. I know in in much of everything I was slow but I could shoot I. Could you know if you it left me alone and three point range. I was pretty good if I had to go inside or run up and down. I was not good all right fair enough. Well I know you've been doing a lot of running up and down here with the Board for the College Football Card as well as the NFL card a lot of stuff for us to get to here today segment and we start on Friday night. We haven't had too many Friday night games to discuss here. You're on the segments. What we've got one this week in three fifteen three sixty in Louisiana tech and Marshall? What's up here man? Yeah I mean a whole lot of moving going on in this game and you know I got by sharp money Marshall Two and a half of this get that out of the way and it's tough like when you when you get hit at a number two and a half below three obviously three three being a key number even in college football you have to respect the three and the seven but I got bet on Marshall at two and a half I mean right away. You're up to three. Ideally you Kinda I wanna see it on three as much as you can. Maybe three minutes fifteen. I try not to use like three minus twenty and stuff like that on a more minor game like this one is but I mean you you Kinda just have to fall the market and watch the board and everyone kind of blew past the three the three and a half and all the way up to five where we are right now. So it's numbers taking a a real a real turn Kinda Anna people pointing us and saying hey look you got this one wrong so you kind of just going to take it on the chin and try and balance as best you can around four and a half and five. which is we're out right now? My count actually. Isn't that bad on this game. It's not a heavily bet game. Even though this game is on Friday I do is interesting. I mean you got Marshall at six and three in lieu tech I think he's he's like eight and one aint through like a one loss team in their only loss was opening week at Texas so but then again I mean you're talking about a team whose beating up on you know UMASS and rice and in Utah you tapped on disrespect to those teams but Marshall minus two and a half is where that sharp money came. They're six and three with you. Know decent losses. If you will it you can have decent losses to Cincinnati. It's now in Boise state. So they've played some decent competition and then they are at home. I guess that probably has something to do with it. Of course and also some rumors coming out here on Thursday afternoon that Louisiana attack has some suspensions coming down the pike including quarterback Jamar Smith which would necessitate a pretty big movement in this game. So somebody must have found out about this one kind of drove of this number up a little bit and I presume we'll have piggyback irs. That come in once. That news is made public if that news is made public so you got the number wrong. I think he just maybe got beaten eating the punch with some of the news. That was out. Yeah I mean even where I am at four and a half and five. It's pretty much balanced inside being there. So I'm kind of taken on the chain at two and a now for even at threes. Where your you know your your first hits come and you balancings off at the rest of it you kind of you kind of end up being up okay if you can bounce a four and a half and five and let that money take take care of it you some your juice to cover the hit you got two and a half of Marshall does end up covering this Saturday here? We go to a noon kickoff in Happy Valley Game Three Twenty Twenty five three twenty-six Indiana Penn state side and total sharp action. Here yeah and I mean. Indiana obviously is decent so so far this season seven and two Penn state and one of course and they lost it was last week. Yeah last week I had sharp money on Penn state they. They laid an egg losing losing to Minnesota last week but lo and behold I still have sharp money once again Penn state this time delayed the thirteen and a half and again I mean yeah we we went through fourteen fourteen fourteen. You WanNa think of it as a keenum but really you know especially in college football but even in the NFL is not a number that you really concern yourself with too much so we have gone from thirteen half all the way up to fourteen and a half where we are right now. Chart Mini came on Penn state and I mean related or not to that is money on the over as well so I have a sharp favorite and sharp over here play here. The overcame at fifty one fifty four and a half right. Now I think couple books did touch fifty fifty if the fifty-five I'm sitting fifty four and a half right now my account just very slightly towards the over on the side Achy. You know kind of you know in a good spot and that I've got not a glaring sharpen public split but I do have more bets on Indiana. I've got accountable To to one very now and I think maybe you know the there is like the correlation between Penn State and the over here because when Indiana did lose. They've lost twice so far this year they keep up the fifty one to Ohio state. I mean I'm obviously obviously no no harmon. You know. It's not such a such a bad thing giving up that Ohio state because they're they look like such a superior team also lost to Michigan State and gave up forty that cases while so the loss of Michigan State about forty points. You kind of looking at while. They're going to get beat the role you know. Give up a whole lot of points. I guess there could be a correlation between the two here so we jumped down to the PAC twelve game three forty nine three fifty. UCLA AND UTAH. We've seen this a lot here this year with a big spread Eh. Total coming down. And that's the case here in this game. Yeah and the case I mean to with Utah. You kinda they do have a reputation of a very strong defence. Historically historically the way the way they win games and they've been very strong obviously against teams are supposed to beat they. They they they do quite well in that spot shutting down on Poland's who were supposed to beat. Ucla informed five not have won three straight but after starting at one and five on the season sharp sharp money that came in on this one. Of course the total we're talking about was the under fifty four on. We're done a fifty two right now on my housing fifty one and a house on the board so we could kind of drop down where they are but right now fifty two. I'm I'm kind of doing all right. Not a ton of action on the total but I I you know slightly slight count towards the over but not a whole lot. It's it's not what you know what I'm going to call a sharpen public split by any means but I got a slight tick towards the over. That's why I'm sitting at fifty two and have a gone to fifty one and a half yet but it is kind of trending downward even further either. A sharp came in here. What about the side? I mean obviously it's going up a little bit but that doesn't really seem to suggest too much of the sharp variety on the aside. I'm no I mean. I'm pretty much balance. You're out she when I'm looking at on the on the side Slightly more money if you will towards UCLA But not not a lot by any means account. It's not even two to one but it's trending towards two to one This number has actually gone up as well. It did open as lowest twenty going twenty half where I got my first bets on Utah and since Twenty One and even at twenty one and a half is coming back towards UCLA so you might go back down at twenty one thousand surprise me at all. But I don't have sharp money either way on the spread or we go to the mountain west game three forty. There are three fifty. Three three fifty four excuse me Wyoming and Utah Estate and last week than Boise state took a ton of money against Wyoming and he went to overtime with the cowboys. In Boise. State comes away with a three point win but the situations flipped a little bit. Yeah I mean you mentioned that last week. I don't know if that's part of the you know the carryover in terms of the backing of Wyoming but I do have trump money there Plus seven minus one fifteen is where that came in. My count is pretty much even on this one. What is it has gone just constantly? There's numbers just keep keeps on ticking down at five and a half right now. I've seen some fives on the board. As well so this one seems to be just continually being on the Wyoming side. The sharp money like I it was possible and a half minus one fifteen. Since I've gone down lakes even at six and a half pretty much balance. You know. It's a case where you kind of fall the market at at this point two five and a half. I'm Debbie mentioned my waiter account. I had slightly more in Wyoming a plus six once. I got that that sharp hit and the counting balance instead. I just call it kind of been following the board again. I don't know if you know the kind of a carryover effect with how tough they played boise state losing by three last week but they have the road. DOGG getting support here like I said Utah stays down five and a half right now when we have seen the market Fade Utah State quite a few times this season to an and it almost seems like these things kind of going so in like three and four week. Intervals where you'll Louisville's another example. Where Louisville took sharp money probably three weeks in a row didn't take sharp money gets Miami should should have been an easy sign for all of us? Miami wins in Blah fashion. It seems like you kind of like a three to four week period of one team getting pretty consistent sharp money and and the adjustment happens and then they kind of back off a little bit. Yeah and you see that year-over-year even in nfl there's just certain things where whether it's a certain team or just certain numbers that that just saw oftentimes especially this game and the gambling side of things is so driven by analytics and stuff like that as well nowadays that you look at at at teams mm situations where the numbers just don't support what they're doing you know even though you know this. This event keeps on happening. This result keeps happening. The numbers just don't support it so you're betting being at based on it going the other way all right so we go to the big twelve here and this is a big game in the big twelve game. Three hundred eighty one three eighty two Oklahoma. And Baylor sure and you and I were talking for started recording here Brent and you were going to surprise by what's going on in this game I was. I was hoping I mean. I don't know what I I was thinking hoping that you're going to shed some light on this for me Adam but a whole lot of I don't know how to you kind of didn't didn't add a lot of value to that conversation. But Yeah I just you keep you know. There's all saying you know keep Keep it simple stupid something like that where it just like. You just look at the situation here with Oklahoma on the road at Baylor Oklahoma eight and one bay there nine or no now. Oklahoma is rated ten. I think right now baylor thirteen three spots separating them but I mean Baylor's beaten The won at Kansas State. They beat Oklahoma State Oklahoma lost to Kansas State. And yet here. We have Oklahoma opening as a nine point favorite. I bet by sharp minus nine so that was the play here. That's the gate while we're talking about this game in particular so Oklahoma minus nine ish sharp and there's numbers all the way up to ten and a half half my count is pretty much even So I kind of expected that beginning money at least from the public side but Neil. That really hasn't coming bather said they. They've they've played Kansas State. They beat Oklahoma state. They've got Texas next week. So obviously you you know you got a lot of a lot of top opponents. They're going up again. They are like you say at home getting double digits but sharp money. I guess knows better than you and I like. I said that came in Oklahoma minus nine. Save something for the show right. I can't tell you everything before. We actually start recording here so here comes right when you look at a lot of shirt movement. That's out there in the marketplace. I'm not saying this for you. I'm saying us with better for the listeners. But you mention the stats angles and the analytics. And it's the crowd that really jumps in early in the week Oklahoma even with the perception of their defense here this year they're yards per play. Differential offense and defense is almost four yards per play there a yard and a half better in yards per plan offense offense than anybody else in the country so I think that's the driving force behind this line move. Is that the analytics crowd. The quad crowd that gets in early is saying this Oklahoma team four yards per play better on offense. You know the defense. And that's because their offense is absolutely elite. It's one of the best in the country the best we've ever seen on a per play standpoint so you see that. I think we get some Baylor buyback here before kickoff. I'm just not sure when that happens. Yeah I'm I'm actually getting. I'm I've got you know bather buyers in house for sure So I'm Michael. It's not that bad all it's it's pretty much even so I mean you know I'm in a good spot brought in terms of my my waiter counting the way things are going. Yeah I took that early. Hit at minus nine. Yeah I've crossed ten but I'm not really too worried about the fact that I've gone across town like I said the key numbers in college. Football are kind of less relevant and I kind of only really pay attention or try and hold onto numbers eight three and seven of the fact that it's crossed from nine all the way past asked ten and ten and a half where we are now is not I definitely do have a bather buyers like I said. I'm getting money back to way if I sit here way. We are which I think is the way it's going to be I. I think we're just GONNA be balanced between ten and a half and ten. Perhaps until Saturday and also to a degree there's a correlation between the size of the line. Move and the total. That's on the game because the higher the total the more scoring maybe a little bit more variance in some of those games so you can go from nine to ten and a half or eleven if this total was forty five or something maybe you do stop at ten I and see what happens there. Yeah I mean the total pretty much its openness sixty seven just kind of ticked up to sixty seven and a half. I think this kind of market y. There's nothing but public money going out direction. So far my count on the totals about four to one towards the older but again Oklahoma's and all this really not much of a surprise all right so we go down to three ninety nine four hundred in the big ten Wisconsin and Nebraska and looks like it's a pretty one way set of activity here for this game. Yeah this numbers move quite a bit. I think he opened as as low as like around twelve out in the marketplace. I got by sharp money minus thirteen. So that's favorite Wisconsin minus thirteen numbers up to fourteen and a half right now. So it's pretty consistent across the board Wisconsin. They did lose to. I think it was Illinois and Ohio. Ohio state on back-to-back. wheats they beat Biwa last week I guess it was but I think this Nebraska's almost just been consistently bet against the season They've the they've they just beat the where they got. BEAT BY MINNESOTA Indiana purdue in the live loss for the last five and including those three straight The only win was by three at home to North Western. WHO's sitting at one eight and just like there's just not a whole lot lot light about vote number like about Nebraska and I hope fourteen half is going to do it for us from the balance off so I'm sitting between thirteen where the money in fourteen and a half any money both ways? I hope that's how it turns out for me. Even at fourteen I was getting. I was getting consistent. Wisconsin Badger money at fourteen and a half. It's pretty much even attention. My Waiter Council. Fourteen half seems to be the number. You know the numbers that working in house for me but thirteen and fourteen and was some money so as I look at the screen here both Alabama Alabama Lsu and their respective games right in the same area in terms of the board where Wisconsin Nebraska is. So we're not going to talk about the Games involving those teams but before before we transition over to the. NFL just want to ask how did that Lsu Alabama game last week end up for you. It was good. Yeah I know the result was very good for us and the the big thing for me. I mean. We talked about it on Thursday that I expected to have more volume on that game than several of the NFL Games and that was that was the case. The volume on that game probably was probably exceeded the volume on about half of the NFL Games that we took on Sunday it was it was just massive fantastic volume and then of course you know it's interesting because it knocks all the well temporarily at least the Alabama futures off the market you know. It was interesting for the heisman market. To where it takes you know to pretty much out of the equation so that was kind of interesting about that game too. Yeah the trickle down effect we're at the point where with the ratings and stuff like that with the top teams. Now you know you're looking all these teams who have have one loss and and Minnesota who has hasn't lost yet so far this season to kind of puts them into the bottom better spot. Everyone's just kind of like inching closer. I talked about organizing. It was last week one loss team. I believe. The only loss was at Auburn. Very very early in the season where they're up by a bunch at halftime where they lost by six. I think it was so. They're one of those teams now. They don't have any big market teams on deck. So you probably looking at them finishing with that that one loss and if you know chips fall right for for them when these other teams lose another game you know who knows they could get into the way up there and Utah's pretty much in the same spot as well so it's really interesting. We talked about last week. How the the margin the victory might come into play with these bigger favorites but you also got these teams who are on the fringes like five six seven ranked teams who are dealing with one loss or no losses? Who probably I'm trying to roll it up on teams as well all right so we transitioned over the NFL side of the market and this Games off the board? But I just want to touch on it real quickly here. Dallas and Detroit. I don't remember seeing a player of Matt Stafford's magnitude ruled out the morning of the game. That had to be kind of crazy for you. Yeah I I mean what's what's more crazy to me is that we were even talking about him playing. I mean I think right. Now he's listed the injury like on on Bomba's like it's it's a hip injury but they're talking about how got broken bones in his back and I remember like the the previous weeks and stuff you see him like going in between linebackers and lowering his head and stuff like that and so what you want about the guy but man. He's just top snails guy and he had like a a long streak. I believe without being out. And he's just a tough football player but that's probably why came down on the morning of the game because he was probably like why. Why sit me out? I haven't before I'm just happy. My teaser got there because I had a perfect. You know through three. And and seven teaser with the Lions. I'm just happy that found a way to get there. It was funny I had A. I had a four team and they were involved in. I can't remember who would the fourteen in pieces I have but I know Detroit was on there and then yeah no I. I actually won my teaser. It's it's funny like we talk about it in house sometimes we all dabble input fun. Vets out there. And it's like we're calling. The teaser. Were telling customers. Look this is really GonNa Look Super Nice on paper but you're probably not gonna get it people better anyway. It's just kinda funny like naming something to tease her. That released a teaser. That's very true. As as we take a look here at game. Four fifty three four fifty four New Orleans wins and Tampa Bay the saints our on the road after a very surprising loss last week to say the least against the Atlanta Falcons. What's the story here in this game? The story Lori Adams. I'm going to try and sell you and your listeners. On some more Tampa Bay unders. We try last week and didn't work out and we're going to try again Again you know we talk dirty able how analytics and stuff like that and these these guys who drive the numbers and stuff like that these days and you know I think when you what. I'm my feelings that when you dig deep deep into Tampa Bay's numbers that just don't support the fact that they've had all these games just consistently going over. I mean I. I think we're going back. Does it since the giants on the twenty second and that's one two three four five six seven weeks now where they've been Fifty points or higher. I mean it's just like combined points and they just we do. We talked about last week on the show. They had the under on the Arizona. Tampa Bay game and the kind of feeling was that if they void giving up the big place. They'll get that under any kind of looked like it was going to go that way. And then Kirk went for a sixty nine yard. Touchdown career Isabel receiver went for like fifty five yards. Marie had like a thirty thirty. Two Yard Run so my dad and they've Kinda as Tampa Bay team. They kind of have to avoid giving up those big plays and you look we you know. We talked about as well. They're defensive front. Seven is one of the top in the league. They just kind of have a weaker secondary where they get exposed. That's what happened last week so I do. How sharp money on this one again? It came at under fifty one and a half. I've got a strong wager. Count fearing the over so I got a you know a definite and clear public and sharp split with the public on the over. Yeah no surprise and the money on the under fifty one and a half and I think you know if I kinda WanNa look in angry with the show. I think you know what we've seen from breeze so far. He's just not going. I'm deep is much. And if he doesn't go deep like Arizona did last week he probably cash this under. Yeah it's it's one against short butters are smarter than diameter. That's why I'm sitting here hosting the show. As opposed to betting for a living but with Marshon lattimore probably out for New Orleans. Nobody to cover Mike Evans and probably no one to cover Chris Godwin. Oh I don't think I could step in front of this total. I don't think there's any way good but again like you said I mean how long Tampa Bay keep doing this and also New Orleans. They've got a ton of skill position talent. But you know how prolific and that offense be. There's always a method to the madness. Again they find value wherever they find it. And if it's on Tampa Bay unders. Maybe this week they get one. Yeah we you could. Maybe assume that you know from the handicap and stuff that you're opening Tampa Bay numbers a little bit higher just because Ah said they've gone sixers. Whatever weeks has been where they've scored over fifty points and sometimes in the sixties combine? So you're getting some really high scoring games with them and and yet the numbers may be supported Maybe they're in a spot now. Where breeze doesn't really go deep a whole lot more anymore and they their numbers in terms of their their front seven and stuff like that kind of support that and you also have to wonder? I guess maybe you how how's New Orleans can look after that absolute shock loss last week to Atlanta all right so we jump down here to pretty interesting game game. Four sixty four sixty four buffalo and Miami. These teams played in week week. Six buffalo was a seventeen point home favourite now on the road there just a six and a half point favorite. What's going on with this game? Yeah yeah this is Miami has been one of those teams almost since late week. Two or three just consistently getting money as mostly been Public money in the last couple of weeks. I know there was a couple of spots earned this season with a sharps. Were on Miami just getting. It'll double digit volume with them now. That home sharp money came in on buffalo minus his five and a half. So I'm at six and a half right now. There are some six and a half minus fifteen. So you kind of you know when you get early money at a number like five and a half and then you're up to six years six and a half half you kind of want to resist touching on seven because you figure once you hit seventy one anchor in there you don't WanNa be hitting popping back and forth so I'm still sitting at six and a half. I see some books out. Thirty six and a half minus fifteen. So that Kinda seems to be where it's going right now six and a half with juice while I might be there. Buffalo has lost a couple of games lost that heartbreaker against last week at Cleveland. But I mean their defense has been strong all season long. Your Miami has got Fitzpatrick quarterback but I mean I think generally speaking they are weak You know generally speaking. They're a week or team. If you WANNA call it that you just talent wise looking at what they have or buffalo this five and a half seems to be like some decent. He's at value. I don't think this number is GONNA come back down at all. I think is probably going to hang. Just where does it six and a half. Maybe six and a half with juice. I I don't see this one coming back down at all this the numbers just I just. I don't think support it. I am getting away to count that favors Miami accountable to to one. Like I said they just been consistently getting money mostly from public bidders last last few weeks are earlier on like I said it was shot money back in Miami but they haven't really jumped on my. I'm all in in many many weeks so a sharp public count but not a not a massive cowboys do have public money on Miami Sharp Ceelo way on Buffalo Alright so game. Four sixty nine four seventy I would say this is the game of the week. Although we got to real good ones this week Houston Baltimore one of them. But this is New England in Philadelphia bolted these teams off of a by New England. A three and a half point road favorite favorite. I get the impression that we're GONNA wind up with. Sharpen public split on this game and you mean we always pretty much always have a massive count favoring New England uh-huh and when I talk about the game which we'll get into that right away was on Philadelphia plus three and a half. You look at the board right now. Almost every single book there there is still at three and a half. You kind of look you know. Why are you not know having budged down from three and a half on three and the simple fact is just the waiter count favoring the Patriots? It's it's still very very strong. I got accountable four to one right now favoring the Patriots so it's quite strong count in a in a game this between to kind of quote unquote marquee teams and and again. I think the public is going to be behind doing the initial metal already. Just because that's kind of what they do and numbers guys. I think you know. You look at Philadelphia. They're sitting at five and four but numbers wise. I mean it just seems like a decent matchup for them I mean New England they do struggle versus the run on. You know they are coming off their first losses season at at Baltimore. The numbers wise. You look at League averages and stuff like that in terms of offensive success rates. I mean their offense Vince. Passing wise just slightly. Above average the rushing offense is just slightly below average. So they're not really excelling in any particular area and you look at the eagles. Of course they've got one of the top ten defenses burr both versus the rush and verses the past. So they're they're solid and I think you look at both offense defensely at at the line of scripted. I think they're going to have a whole lot of successful. This is one of those spots where I'm kind of content to sit back and hopefully I can balance action. It three and a half. I don't see myself going any higher higher for sure. I don't see this number of going higher. Anything might take back down to like hit on three and if it gets to three I can't see it moving through New England minus three minus one twenty or th- reminds one fifteen or something to that effect but there's nothing I just can't see any situation where we're going to be higher than three and a half where we are right now if anything despite the fact that I bought such strong account the other way if anything I could see this one coming down and if you know come kickoff if we need if we need the eagles for a a big route I'll be happiness spot. Yeah and of course again. It's very important to use your onscreen to your advantage because as you look out there in the market as said most books at three and a half. The ones that are at four shouldn't surprise you at all so will get us. Those context clues to your advantage out there in terms of the odds screen one more game in the. NFL is a wrap things up here for this segment and for this week on the show. Game Game Four. Seventy one four seventy to Cincinnati and Oakland. This probably won't surprise anybody. The real surprise I think is the fact that the Oakland razor as a redouble digit favorite. I mean going back to last season that you don't you don't think you would ever be on a position where you're going to say that. But they they. You know this game right here. I think they're gonNA match up pretty well and I mean who doesn't match wilburs the Bengals of course Oakland minus nine is the sharp money. Kane we've gone boom right up to ten boomer on ten and a half right now also Sitting at ten and a half here and kind of just kind of digging in on this one and you know it's real tough because you know at ten and a half. Yeah I'm starting at two. We Action Action when I was at ten four to one favoring Oakland so I count overall is kind of closer to guy you know slightly more than ten and a half but ten and a half seems like ah Ha is the number that it has to be all week long and it probably the number. That's going to work for us from getting to a action bengals worst defense in the league. They're just is going against the you know what really is inefficient Oakland offense. I think they'd run the ball. Probably a little more than people would like to see them but they're just Kinda gruden being committed to the run as he is but I think Oakland was basically in the house accessories. The run running the ball and passing the ball. They're going to win this game however you know which ever way they want to so ten and a half I you know. I'm kind of see you know happy that I'm getting reaction at ten and a half half. We kind of found that spot earning the week being Thursday. We're okay this is the number that's working in terms of getting to weigh action. I'll tell you this. Second time in the last fifteen years. The raiders have been a double digit favourite. The other time we to in two thousand seventeen. That was when they were at home to Josh mccown. And The New York Orc jets there were twelve and a half four or fourteen point favorite in that game. So as you said very surprising to see the raiders a double digit favorite here in this one. I guess one last question should not not a game with any sharp axe or anything like that but Kansas City and the chargers on Monday night game in Mexico City. We have of course seeing the over the line up on the total here a little bit but the one in Mexico City type games they kind of throw people off a little bit or not really not really. No I think people you know the only thing that Kinda yeah throws people off is when they had the London Games that are early those are the only spot that really has that effect at all but no these being Mexico game and not a big deal at all. uh-huh sharper guys might digging stuff into the altitude in the suffocating in Mexico and what kind of effect that would have but the general public bidders doesn't concern them at all right once again. The head risk manager down at sportsbook odds report always a great segment man. I always enjoy it. Thank you so much for joining me. We'll talk to you again next week. Appreciate having me on Adam thank you now. Is the chance to use reliable energy to grow your money. 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