17 Burst results for "nadia lewis"

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

09:26 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Happiness. It can feel like a difficult thing to quantify and also kind of elusive moments. Like what will make a person happy. Is it a great job job. Is it a family is it money is it. I don't know Yoga. Yeah I've been some Yoga. Classes is definitely not yoga but still doesn't help answer our questions. So where do we turn for an answer to how to quantify and measure. Happiness economists Horror of course. That's where you go to learn about happiness right so this economist David blanchflower. He is a new study out built on some old work of his where he finds a strong correlation between age and happiness and he released a study recently. That finds that people report. We're being the most unhappy. They reached their peak misery in their mid to late forties. Yeah apparently there's something called the happiness curve so you before you reach this certain age and you're mids it's late forties. You're getting progressively more unhappy. You hit the age and then you get happier after that. This is the indicator from planet. Money I'm Stacey Vanik Smith I'm Greg Rusedski and Greg. You are the author of the Planet Money Newsletter. Right please subscribe. Please subscribe to some desperate. No absolutely not and I read it and I was like this is very bleak and disturbing and would also make an amazing indicator because there's this very particular age that supposedly was lead peak misery. It's like the nater of Nihilism. The bottom of the barrel. The worst of the worst the moment at which darkness closes in and after which apparently releases this is. Greg give it to us. Forty seven point two forty seven point two years old. You heard it here. First peak misery peak misery talk about the dismal science and today in the show we talked to the economist David blanchflower about the happiness curve. Forty seven point two and what it's like to be on the other side of it support for this. NPR podcast and the following message come from IINO. The capital one assistant the catches things that might look wrong with your credit card. Send you an alert and helps you fix them another way. They're watching out for your money when you're not what's in your wallet. Seek seek capital one dot com for details support also comes from Google from Connecticut to California from Mississippi to Minnesota millions of American and businesses are using Google tools to grow online learn more at Google dot com slash. Grow okay. Why don't we start with your name? And what you you David. blanchflower professor of economics at Dartmouth College and there was a period there. Were you served on the Bank of England. Yes in two thousand six. Six Golden Brown called me up and said Don. I wanted you to go to the Bank of England I said Oh okay And I want you to come to the really seriously. Ah So so. Monetary policy clearly is one of your specialties. How did you get into the sort of world of happiness and and in midlife crises? So what does the Central Bank you care about Central Bank as Aboud interest rates inflation unemployment growth. But they're into people don't care about that they care about how it impacts their wellbeing so I started to think about ultimately What impacts impacts their wellbeing so I actually have a paper? Brian Look at Tommy. Inflation and unemployment impact people's happiness so in a sense those things are intermediate goods. What we really do care about a people's happiness so I go to it and then I started to realize the patterns in the data while guests here high unemployment high I am happiness is absolutely right and so what I found was one of the big results from this is a one percentage point increase in unemployment has a big effect on people's happiness? So that's some of the stuff that I've been doing like really basic question is I mean obviously I know how we measure unemployment but how how did you go about measuring wellbeing. Like how do you measure happiness. Feels like that would have been a challenge at the start of this research absolutely So it turns out that there are many many many many many surveys around the world that actually ask people directly. How happy are you so sometimes they say in literally how happy I you on a scale of one to ten? How satisfied with your life? I you so these schools. Well the first thing. Is that the patterns in these data. When you ask this you pretty much get the same results? Every time most people are pretty happy very few people very unhappy and the same fluid ounces occur on it but I think what what you you would say. Why does this matter when it turns out? This is currently with things so happy people heal faster they live longer healthier so you you are are in the world of central banking. You get interested in happiness and well-being And then in two thousand seven you you release this. The sort of paper a had a huge impact on a lot of people. So can you kind of sort of set the scene. Two thousand seven. What was that paper? I started to work with number colleagues leagues on trying to think about these patterns. In happiness data and three things stood out the first one we just talked about that unemployment impacts it impacts happiness being married impacts it but one of the things we saw very easily so in the data was that happiness is high. When you're a young is high when you're old but this trough in the middle so this this you shake so this is what drove it? I'm particularly interested in deepening case. Talk about deaths of despair and particularly we seem a crisis in America suicides especially in drug poisoning deaths amongst the prime age in particular not prime age less educated folk. And there's that issue around the world so that's so that was really kind of the starting point I've done this study of one hundred thirty the two countries and what I find when average all together in advanced countries The the the the deer. If you like the low point of this happiness it is forty seven and when you do it for developing countries that got nine hundred five developing countries that do before very similar about forty eight point six so around forty eight That seems to be right. And what's interesting over the last couple of weeks. I've been talking a lot about lots of people. Call me and tweet it to me and and so on and said wow that really fits my life. So you've you've talked about this a little bit but I'd love to get like really specific. So what is it that that is causing. I do think I mean like what is it about I guess it was at forty seven point to you What is it what is going on that? That's making people unhappy at that age. Well I think if you look back. I'm a professor so I've lots of young people I teach these young folks And then they left home when they come through the university and they suddenly realize there's more than one way to cook an egg but all of that is pretty dumb tough especially these days where student loans and having to try and buy a house. What are you going to do with all of that stuff? This is really hard but I mean in the sense. What's interesting about it is this phenomena phenomenon appears to be true everywhere? It's not unique to Germany Japan the US and Canada African countries. You see it in Latin America seating Thailand highland so I think it's something that's the people the people are experiencing and then eventually I think eventually I think what happens is people get real. I mean some of the work have written said when you get to meet fifty you your aspiration start to become real when I was talking to you. You're in the Florida mangroves and yes and you write fishing right and that day you caught a fish right the was it again. It was a it was a twenty eight inch twenty pound redfish toward and and you so you sent me this picture. It's a picture of just for listeners. Out There WanNA picture You're just beaming. You still have your security. I have to say this professor blanchflower so We publish this article Ray and it goes on the web and twitter being witter. I had somebody are- tweet at me. And they said this. How are we supposed to trust any of this switch? Flower guys work when he blatantly lies about fishing that Royd ride nowhere near twenty pounds eight to ten pounds so any respond here. I mean I mean the question. It doesn't really rely the size of the faith. which is what I said relies on the fact that I looked awfully happy? You happy. You're on the you're on the upward swing of your happiness curve. We're on yes I've come to see my action sir. My son having a wedding party. Today's Louisiana but your children bring you joy. The grandkids life life improves. This episode of the indicator was produced by Nadia Lewis fact checked by Britney Cronin edited did by Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is a production of.

David blanchflower Greg Rusedski Bank of England Google professor NPR Dartmouth College Brian Look Royd Stacey Vanik Smith professor of economics Golden Brown Louisiana IINO David. America Paddy Hirsch Don Nadia Lewis
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

07:41 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Support for NPR in the following message. Come from mail chimp. So you're ready to make that side-hustle your remain hustle. Now what start with the all in one marketing platform from male champ. That's what it has all the tools you need to give your new business. The strongest wrong is start with the right marketing at male champ dot com support for this podcast and the following message come from salesforce a customer relationship management solution dilution committed to helping you deliver the personalized experiences that customers want salesforce bringing companies and customers together visit salesforce dot com slash learn more. Okay Dr is. Are you ready for the three trends. Yeah right so are we going bad. I I think we're going to go with a trend. That was really bad in two thousand nine hundred ninety nine and we'll talk about whether or not it might turn around in twenty twenty and it's this business. Investment K Yeah so business investment vestment by the way is the money that company spent on things like buildings plants equipment research stuff like that and last year. The amount of that money that company spent on these things stopped growing and in fact growth in business investment turned negative so that it shrank. Yeah did it shrink by a lot no not by it ton but the fact that it was shrinking is notable because the economy overall was growing and people were spending money and so. There's this kind of interesting question. It just why that was and there are a few different theories here. The main one is the trade war has been causing a lot of uncertainty in the global economy. And that has made eight companies kind of hesitant to invest. Because they just don't have much clarity on what the future's going to look like so there are a little bit nervous about spending the money now but also it's possible that some some of that sluggishness in business investment was a one off trend in the energy sector or in the aviation sector and so it might rebound in the coming year so the question Now is will business investment in fact make a big comeback in twenty twenty and I would point to one thing as possibly hopeful sign at the end end of last year. The confidence of CEO's had started to go up after it had reached a really low point in the middle of the year and so that suggests that maybe CEO's or becoming a little bit more confident about the economy the direction it's going in the trade war maybe they'll start investing again. How right so yet? To yet to be scene if twenty twenty will will be will continue the trend if this bad trend will turn around or if it will continue right. That's one thing we're going to be watching number to to write a trend that was Kinda Meh last year can mixed and so the question for this one is will go in the right direction or will it turn in the wrong long direction and here it is. Wage growth was stagnant last year. Right here we hear a lot about this. This is this is why a lot of average people aren't necessarily feeling Ling the impacts of a good economy. Yeah I mean there's a few things going on here but the really baffling things. The labor market overall last year was pretty strong right. We were still creating a a lot of jobs but overall for some reason wage growth did not accelerate the way people expected it to okay. So here's something interesting. That happened last last year. Okay of the people who month to month go from being not employed to then getting a job almost three out of four for those people were not even looking for a job the month before and tryst and with a lot of people coming back into the labor force exactly and that's a big deal because it suggests that the economy still needs to create a bunch more jobs before workers have the kind of bargaining power that would lead to accelerating wage growth so this is a huge deal. I mean when you're talking about wages you're talking about something really tangible. I know how much is in my paycheck. I know what that affords me right. The chance to provide for my family the chance. Sometimes too. You know indulge in something. Nice whatever I have a sense of it and that's what wage growth is all about. That's why it matters so much healthy reminder that economics isn't just a game affects people's lives absolutely it. Bears reminding you to lose sight of that. I think we we should remind people and also if it leads people to recommend a certain podcast. I it's quite good at explaining these trends. Then why not liking subscribe wherever you find your pockets exactly Okay so the last trend. This was something that was really good in two thousand nineteen gene. And we're all hoping we'll continue in twenty twenty two good stuff. The good is dollar on me. It is simply consumer spending. Will people keep keep increasing the amount of money that they spend in the economy which is of course what drives the US economy and also to some extent a chunk of the world economy enemy because of course US imports a lot of goods from other parts of the world. And so the question is will Americans keep spending money keep increasing the amount of which we spent a lot of this past year a healthy amount I would say so roughly last year the US increased. How much money spent by about two and a half percent after you just for inflation? That is roughly in the range of what it has been for the last three years when the labor market has stayed strong and when the economy's continued growing and to the question is will the US consumer keep spending it roughly the pace of increase it has been spending at for the last few ears. Some pretty hopeful signs here. The Federal Reserve has suggested that it won't try to slow down the economy anytime soon that it is is comfortable with where the economy's ad so that's one thing another thing. The housing market and the stock market did quite well in the second half of last last year and that can have in fact on the amount of money people are comfortable spending. But here's the thing. Consumer spending is also something that can get hit quite suddenly quite hard. There's a big economic surprise and who knows what we're going to get going into next year right. Will the trade war sort itself out what's going to happen in the political realm with the impeachment and the election coming up. That's something I'm going to be watching all year and at the end of the day. Humans are not perfectly rational all of at the time and so you may be hard to predict exactly how people feel about spending money. It's not quantifiable thing. This is something that economists are studying. Stunning increasingly and again. That's hard to predict what will the narratives be in twenty twenty that become contagious. In that end up having a big influence on how we behave so let me make sure got this all all right. The three things that we are watching but not predicting is correct. Businesses weren't spending enough. Maybe they'll spend more wages. Were flatter than we'd like maybe they'll grow faster consumers. Were spending a good amount. Let's hope they keep spending. Yeah that's exactly right all right. So there's your Educated hypothetical non predictions for twenty twenty. If you lose all your money in the stock market on us that's right and by the way we'll we'll post charts and links to describe some of these trends over at NPR dot org slash money. Dr Is always a conversational pleasure. Thanks for having me. This episode of the indicator was produced by Lena Sons. Gary our editors Paddy Hirsch. Our fact checker is Nadia Lewis Indicator. Peter is a production of N._P._R...

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"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

08:44 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Everyone it stacey and Cardiff and this is the indicator from planet. Money Today on the show are we there yet and by their we mean is the US economy at full employment yet or candle labor market. Get even stronger than it already is. Now this seems kind of obvious but it. It is actually a much trickier question than you might think. Because the definition of full employment is kind of unclear that's right the Federal Reserve for example says that the US economy Konami maximum employment. That's another phrase for full employment when all Americans that want to work are gainfully employed but another definition. That economists honest sometimes use is whether all workers are employed in jobs that make the best use of their skills so that the quality of the jobs matters to and not just whether there there are enough jobs and finally a lot of economists say the labor market is a full employment. Only when it can't get any better without inflation taking off the idea. Is that if enough forcus have jobs. Then companies have to pay higher salaries to attract new workers and the companies then offset the cost of paying those higher salaries by raising the prices of what they sell prices going up. That is inflation. So you've got these different definitions and plus it's hard to measure just how strong. The labor market is in real time. In the first first place so the best we can do is to look at a bunch of economic indicators to get an overall picture and then make an educated guess as to whether the economy is at full employment so historically to get an idea of what full employment is people would look at the unemployment rate so right now the unemployment rate is super low just three point five percent that what is the lowest in more than fifty years. So does that mean we're at full employment well to help answer that question. We are going to be joined today by an old towel. This show L. Economists Jared Bernstein. He is brought three indicators for us that he thinks offer better signals as to whether the economy is at full employment. That is coming up right after the break support for this. NPR podcast and the following message. Come from the. Ymca a nonprofit but that helps fill the gaps and bridge the divides in ten thousand communities. Nationwide learn more about the impact of your donation at Ymca Dot net slash giving the why for a better US shared Bernstein. Welcome back to the PODCAST. Thanks so much for inviting me. So Jared Before anything cards on the table here you do not think. The economy enemy is at full employment right despite the unemployment rate being so low correct. I don't think we're at full employment yet. We're closing in on it but we're not there. That seems crazy because when I was growing up the unemployment rate was always five percent so when five percent of the population was unemployed than that meant it was at full employment and now we're at three three point five percent unemployment and you still think like no we could. We could push it further well first of all. I applaud the fact that when you were growing up you knew what the unemployment rate was so. That was a very sophisticated shut. It makes sense that you ended where you did. That's probably true. I think the challenge with the unemployment rate is that for decade upon decade economists. Honest thought we knew the lowest unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation and we thought that number was six and then we thought it was five and then we thought it was four. And now if we're being being honest we have to recognize that we don't really know what that number is so we have to turn to other indicators to evaluate whether we're truly at full employment or not okay okay. I'm definitely willing to hear you. You always have very interesting smart points to make so you have three indicators about whether or not we're at full employment what is your first indicator gainer. My first indicator is inflation and the inflation gauge. The Federal Reserve watches most closely was recently seen growing at one point. Eight percent year over year a year now listeners to our show probably know that The Fed target say two percent inflation rate so inflation is below two percent That would argue that. We're not quite at full employment generating the sort of pressures that Cardiff mentioned earlier. And it's not just last month that we had this in fact inflation has been below. Hello it's target for about ten years so I would say the most common reason economists would argue that. We're not quite a full employment yet. Is this persistently below target inflation rate. But that but one point eight percent is barely below two percent or am I looking at this wrong because it seems like we're basically to. That's why I cited this long term result. Sure if you if you spend a month below two percent that doesn't tell you anything if you spend ten years below the two percent target that tells you a lot okay. So that's indicator here number. One inflation jared what is indicator number two well indicator number two is a pretty intuitive one and that's wage growth now. Wages have grown more quickly as the unemployment rate comes down and that makes a ton of sense because workers have a bit more bargaining power in tight labor markets. I mean anytime you can tell your employer no thanks or take this job and shove or some variation between those two poles of the gay day. That's that's a day when you expect to see some wage pressure because at very low unemployment employers have to bid up their wage increases to get and keep the workers they need but with unemployment rate at a fifty year low. Oh you might expect to see more wage pressure than we're seeing One frequently cited series was last seen growing at three point two percent year over year. Now that's better than the two percent Kind of growth. We saw a while ago and by the way this relates to my indicator one slow inflation wages that are growing a little bit north of three percent with inflation flation below two percent that means real wage gains so. That's a very good thing for working people but wages should be growing little bit faster if we're truly at full employment and they're up in jared. There is historical evidence that wages can grow faster than they're growing. Now Right. I mean wages were growing faster than then the current pace back in the nineties. Yes they were. But there's a very important asterisk here and that's that back in the nineties. Productivity growth was faster and when productivity he is growing faster employers can dole out wage increases while maintaining their profit margin. So kind of what you're seeing here is really a struggle between in worker. Power and employer power trying to claw back for the workers a bit more share of the growth so jared your first two indicators that that maybe we're not at full employment are that prices aren't growing as fast as they could be. Wages aren't growing as fast as they could be. What is your indicator number? Three indicator number three is less well known the first two but it's labor share of national income so national income is all the compensation all the money in people's paychecks plus all the prophets that Companies Make and so and there's some other cats and dogs in there but basically it's the income that the economy generates and you want to ask yourself what share of that income is going to workers. That's the Labor share of national income and historically at economic peaks that share has stood at sixty six percent. Now even though it's been increasing late which is a good sign and related to the tightening job market. It's at sixty three percent. So that difference between sixty three and sixty six percent can't three. Big percentage points of national income that to me also signifies were not quite at full employment yet. Well let me ask you this question. So we're at three point. Five five percent unemployment right now. Where do you think we need to get for full employment to happen like where would you be happy? Well in a way. It's a little bit of a trick question in because I've just our favorite I've just offered three different indicators that I think allow you to kind of triangulate full employment better than than the unemployment rate. But I've heard people now talking about three and even numbers below that and so I'd be more than interested to see what happens to Oh my three indicators. If the unemployment rate got down to levels that are even lower than it is today but there is a hugely important caveat here all of those indicators decatur inflation wage growth labor share have been down for so long that they need to grow faster than average for a while to make up lost ground and that that means we don't just need to get the full employment we need to get there and stay there for a while for workers to really feel the benefits. Jared Bernstein always a pleasure man my pleasure thank you. Jared sued was originally produced by Dr Rafi on the update was produced by Lena Sons. Geary our interns. Nadia Lewis in our editor is Paddy Hirsch Rush. The indicator is a production of N._P._R.. And again keep in mind. We'll be back next week all new episodes..

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"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

07:37 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Support for NPR and the following message. Come from capital one where you can open a savings account in about five minutes and earn five times times the national average. This is banking reimagined. What's in your Wallet Capital One in a member. FDIC Martha Jimbo is the Economic Research Director. At the indeed hiring lab in a regular on the show one of our favorites and gender segregation in the workplace is a topic. She's been focused on for a while. Now people tend to avoid talking about it a little bit. I think like the fact that women are more likely to be in primary care. Teachers and men are more likely to be. CEO's IT can end up sounding like you're either blaming women or saying it doesn't matter like it's it's hard to talk about but Martha's says we should talk about it because occupational gender segregation Asian matters for everyone for women for men for families for the economy in a bunch of ways for example it explains a big part of the wealth gap that remains between men and women and the reason is that overall most jobs that pay the most are held by men which include jobs like being a doctor or a dentist or an engineer and most of the lower paying jobs jobs are held by women like childcare workers. Cashiers personal care. Aides in the breakdown is really stark. When you look at senior executives of big companies here's a really staggering statistic of the five hundred? CEO's of the companies that made up the fortune five hundred last year only twenty. Four were women. That's not very many. No I five percent not a lot. Are you GONNA do. Women earn about twenty percent less than men do throughout the economy. That's the gender wage gap gap now discrimination and other variables account for a lot of it but in a recent paper. Economists Francine Blau and Lawrence con estimated that roughly half of the gender wage gap is because men and women work in different industries and occupations. So one conclusion is that if the labor market were less segregated in other words if men and women held roughly the same share of jobs in every occupation then women would likely be paid closer to what men are paid overall. The wage gap would be smaller now. Of course one response to the fact that men and and women work in different jobs could just be that women are choosing different jobs than men are that they're just doing the work they want to do that. It's no big deal. It's just free choice. But Martha's the issue is way more complicated than that. She says we should also consider some of the reasons that women might choose to work certain jobs and not working other jobs if they don't have role models if if people assume that women can't do that kind of work if people who are already in that profession ten talk about women in a derogatory way that's going to cause hawes women to think maybe this occupation isn't for me and there is research showing that women who do go to work in male dominated occupations. Find it more pleasant in the working. Environment is more hostile to them in those male dominated fields and that of course can discourage women from trying for those higher paying jobs in the first place and more also so sites fascinating sociology paper about another barrier to women entering these higher paying jobs. Stereotypes there was a paper that came out recently. Showing knowing that when employers were reviewing resumes they preferred to call in high achieving men for interviews but only moderately achieving women and the researchers went. Wait why is this. And they followed up with the employers and the employer said We think that the moderately achieving women will be more sociable and friendly the high achieving women. You know they seem like they're going to cause social problems in the office. These are people they hadn't even met and you could see that. kind of factor being a bigger occur problem in male dominated occupations where there aren't already high achieving women in the office but Martin is quick to point out the gender segregation is also an important issue for men especially when considering where the economy is heading over the next decade. Most of the jobs that will grow the fastest our jobs that have historically been dominated by women. It's things like nurses nurses nurse practitioners We're going to need a lot more. Healthcare workers because of the aging population. Exactly on the other hand occupations that are dominated by men are predicted to grow much more slowly and in fact occupations that are predominantly women are projected to grow about twice. What occupations that are dominated needed by men are so if the men in these heavily male dominated occupations to keep participating in the labor market. A lot of them will probably have to shift into jobs that have traditionally additionally been held by women. There's another point here which is at a lot of the high paying jobs that require long hours and have very little flexibility jobs like lawyers or bankers or senior executives at big companies still tend to be held by men. One likely explanation for that. Is that the responsibilities of parenting and child care. Have disproportionately been carried carried by women. In the past and inflexibility in the workplace is actually a problem for everybody. Martha says it's a problem for women because it means fewer of them can take these jobs jobs. which would also help? Close the wage gap. But it's a problem for men because men also want flexibility at work maybe more than a lot of people realize one. Recent paper for example concluded clued. Men and women just aren't very different when it comes to reporting conflict between work and family finally says Martha Gender Segregation can also hold back overall economic growth. Both because it means that a lot of jobs aren't being taken by the people who are best matched to those jobs and that slows down. The economy produces a lot of the gains that we've seen in our economy over the last thirty forty years or because of women entering the workforce. I would argue that. We aren't aren't yet fully using women's potential. Because they may not they minis shut out of the occupations that where they may be most productive that they would like to be in and so if we are getting the most out of every worker that we possibly can that's great for everyone and so- ending adding gender segregation and occupations or at least the bias and discrimination that keep women out of certain occupations is good for women It's good for men not to be stuck in occupations that may grow more slowly and it's good for our economy. Progress in reducing gender segregation has been slow and some economists find that has actually been getting slower in the last few decades but there have been some signs that more progress is at least possible. For example the sheriff nursing jobs done by men has been steadily going up since the sixties and as the labor market has strengthened in recent years. Women have also been getting hired into more traditionally male dominated jobs things like construction mining and manufacturing. I do think. The tightening labor market has helped here. One thing that we've seen you know from two thousand sixteen to two thousand eighteen in this period of a really hot labor market is is that women's employment in male dominated. Industries has grown almost twice as fast as their employment in non male dominated industries. Now it's still small but it's growing much faster a quick note of gratitude. The idea for this episode was partly sparked by an excellent article about it in the economist. We also relied on some great work on this topic published by economist at the Center for equitable growth and on the paper by cloudy. Golden and work from other economists and scholars. We'll post links to all these articles and papers in the show notes at NPR dot org slash money. This episode was originally produced by Constanza Gherardo and Darius Rafi on the update was produced. Used Lena Sons. Gerry are intern. Is Nadia Lewis. Our editor is Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is a production of N._p._R...

Martha Jimbo NPR CEO Wallet Capital One FDIC Francine Blau Economic Research Director Paddy Hirsch hawes Lena Sons Nadia Lewis Martin Gerry Constanza Gherardo engineer editor intern Darius Rafi
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

08:48 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Make sure you include the slash indicator because then then they'll know we sent you that's right and we will deliver that love right back. Ta So please make sure to donate before the end of the year. And thanks again N. P. R. Everyone is Cardiff in Stacey. The indicator is taking a week off. But we'll be back with all new episodes next Monday December thirtieth however while we will not actually really be working. We're still going to focus on work We're going to revisit some of our favorite stories about one topic that we talk about a lot on the show. They were not giving our listeners. A break we might now know break now right for you guys. That's right right. Even busted the Air Horn for jobs. Friday who knows who knows exactly basically all this week. We're you're going to revisit stories about a topic that we talked about a lot this year on the show the labor market. We're calling the series the work week and we're going to cover everything from gender segregation into whether the unemployment rate is really to be trusted. Our first episode originally aired in February of this year back in Nineteen thirty seven General Motors signed the very first contract with United Auto Workers Union. It was the culmination weeks of drama. GM did not want its workers to unionize so workers staged a sit in strike inside the jam. Factory production ground to a halt and historic strike began when GM workers barricaded themselves in the automobile assembly plants for forty four days later provided their entertainment slept in an ATM while the work stoppage cost gm one million dollars a day. Officials did try everything to stop the strike. They even turned off the heat in the factory. Sorry and remember. This is winner in Michigan. At one point a riot broke out and this standoff was just captivating the world what observers described as the most lucile battle in American labor history involving nearly one hundred thousand men as practically shut down the entire industry from Michigan where the strike started. We bring you these picture of a riot in progress. What happens when a crowd of strikers goes crazy when destruction becomes the order of the day in the end though? GM's CEO signed a contract with the United Auto Workers Union and that handshake means the strike. The Nation is over. Lieber Lieber and the auto industry would never be the same Chrysler and Ford followed suit signing union agreements of their own. This is the indicator from planet money. I'm Stacey Mac Smith Breath and I'm Cardiff Garcia today. On the show with this major union victory meant for workers what it meant for the auto industry and why unions over time Kinda lost their Mojo after long weeks of idleness. It home today and back to work tomorrow this message comes from. NPR sponsor state farm. Why do you need state farm renter's insurance because it helps protected the stuff landlords don't like your furniture that gets drenched by a broken pipe? State Farm Renter's insurance finding agents or get a quote at State Farm Dot Com support also comes from capital one. Where you you can open a savings account in about five minutes and earned five times the national average? This is banking reimagined. What's in your Wallet Capital One? NA member KNBR FDIC that moment when the auto industry shook hands with the union US business was forever changed without question a historic store milestone Harley. Shakan is a Labor economist at Berkeley that modest contract one page was labour's MAGNA CARTA ARTA in the decades after that contract was signed the UAW bargain for things like pensions and health care benefits and paid vacation and famously high salaries race. That's according to Gary burtless economist with the Brookings Institution. US auto workers were among the princes of industrial labor. In the United States. They received very high Wages very good fringe benefits. A union job became a ticket to the middle class and those high union wages spread out across the economy. People had more purchasing power our the US economy grew companies got wealthier. More of them. Unionized Unions were riding high and everybody wanted to be a union worker. Yeah more and more workers started started unions in their industries. Union spread across the country and by the mid nineteen fifties more than a third of all. US workers were in a union. That is today's indicator more more than a third and then the oil crisis descended. It was the early nineteen seventies gas prices spiked and suddenly everybody wanted a small fuel efficient car. US automakers were not so good with the small fuel-efficient cars and foreign competitors like Volkswagen and Toyota started to get a foothold in the US market market a market that the big three US automakers had just totally owned before then and consequently the big three lost. A lot of sales lost a lot. aww profitability and without those huge profits for GM and Chrysler just could not afford to pay such outsized wages to their workers. Suddenly Americans Americans were actually buying a lot of foreign cars and those foreign cars cost less partially because they weren't dealing with the high salaries and benefits that the big three we were dealing with the good deals. That Union negotiated when times were good started to drag on. US automakers manufacturers and their unions could not turn on Don John. They couldn't change the arrangements. They were less nimble exactly They were less nimble in responding to the demands of the market after that Labor in the US. Just kind of lost it's Mojo all over the country says Gary and this happened for a couple of reasons first. Companies across the US watched watched this thing unfold in the auto sector and they thought we don't want to deal with that they started fighting unionization like never before sometimes intimidating workers or firing workers who who tried to unionize even though that was not legal and also lobbying hard against unions pushing through legislation to weaken them companies in all kinds of industries. We're also seeing more competition petition. From overseas just like the automakers had experienced and companies were starting to equate unions with an inability to compete. And so they fought unions much much harder harder using much stronger methods. Someone say coercive methods at the same time says Gary workers themselves started to back away from unions Indians and from trying to organize employees in the companies. They worked for this happened. Both because companies could be so vicious to workers who tried to unionize and also because in some cases unions were seen as cumbersome to workers with these sort of onerous regulations that would just drag a company down industry in the United States is very dynamic. We always have companies companies that are growing expanding Becoming more profitable and at the same time we have a businesses like sears. WHO's operating model has proven to be less less successful and it happens that in a lot of the shrinking industries unions have been very important and businesses have been much more fierce in resisting unionization than their counterparts were in the nineteen fifties and sixties when it was very plain that unions and very successful ospel unions in many growing industries were not an impediment to companies being very successful and expanding? But nowadays I think in many workers minds and in many businessmen's minds The notion that you would both unionized and growing and flourishing seemed to be incompatible politically in time after the oil crisis the way people and company saw unions had just shifted today says Gary there are more retired members of the united auto workers than working working members right now. The market is strong. The unemployment rate is low and companies are having to compete for workers that gives workers more leverage to do things like unionize is still so scary. That is just not happening. At the rate you might expect in fact last year. Union membership dipped to its lowest level since that contract was signed between the U. A. W. The U. N. G. M. in the thirties according to the Labor Department just over ten percent of. US workers are unionized. And in fact Cardiff probably say that united both in New York full disclosure Yup so a lot of workers and NPR in Sag after and q the old-timey audio this episode was originally produced by Dr Rafi on the update was produced by Lena Sons. Gary are in turn. Is Nadia Lewis. Our editor is Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is a production of N._p._R...

Union United States United Auto Workers Union GM Gary burtless Michigan Cardiff State Farm Renter Stacey Mac Smith NPR General Motors Air Horn Lieber Lieber FDIC Paddy Hirsch Stacey Brookings Institution
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

09:08 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Heroin is Cardiff in Stacey. This is the indicator from planet. Money any welcome to another edition of fun fact. Fridays where I just throw a bunch of facts that I came across it stacy and she judges whether they are in fact fun facts in fact fun facts. Yes that works. Yeah I think that works. We think we need to put it really. Oh my God will be here all week and so I think before we do facto since we need to give you a name like you're the fact judge of the Fine Judge Fun Judge Your. You're judge fun that's what you like. Judge Dredd Yeah but fun that on maybe not very well received movie starring Sylvester Stallone. where I think he? There's a judge in space or something like that. This is a work listeners. You tell us what we should call Stacy Yak Fridays. Yes okay so I picked nick three themes for this one. One is the Volcker era in honor of former fed chair. Paul Volcker who sadly passed away last week. Okay another is building on last last week's theme of household caution and then the last one is something about people who buy houses. I'm very excited here. We go phenomenon is is set support for NPR and the following message. Come from capital. One where you can in opening savings account in about five minutes and earn five times the national average this is banking reimagined. What's in your Wallet Capital One? NA member member FDIC this message comes from NPR sponsor state farm. Why do you need state farm renter's insurance because it helps protected this stuff landlords? Don't don't like your furniture that gets drenched by a broken pipe. State Farm Renter's insurance find an agent or get a quote at State Farm Dot Com. Okay Stacy you're ready for set a fax number one. Oh yes this is from the Volcker era so Paul Volcker was the Fed chair from nineteen seventy nine to nineteen eighty seven. Yeah I wonder if enough people know how different the world was back then so he's sort of famous for being the Fed share who crushed inflation because inflation was super high. You know how high inflation was back then was like sixteen percent or something close. Close it peaked. At more than fourteen percent in April nineteen eighty right now. Inflation is two percent to huge difference. Can you imagine trying to take out a home. Loan if interest rates are facts. That's one of the big. Okay so let's talk about mortgage rates for a second mortgage rates so right now mortgage rates Are about three point seven percent. That's for a thirty year. Fixed rate mortgage okay. Nineteen eighty-one peak mortgage rate more than eighteen gene percent. Oh My do you buy a house right. You've don't buy a lot of people worried that they never would be able to buy houses right because if you have one hundred thousand dollar mortgage Organiz you're paying eighteen percents less on neutra shark. That's like break. Your knee pads interest payments right piece of wood at the track that that is is is nc what Paul Volcker deemed necessary to crush inflation was to raise interest rates and then other interest rates in the economy like mortgage rates followed owed the interest rate that he controls which is the federal funds rate. I just thought it was amazing. To see how different the world was back. Then yet is amazing. we're going with. I'm going with one out of one on that one. Second set of facts household caution. Something we talked about last week actually households become can more cautious over the past decade. They're saving more money saving more money of their income than they used to. Yeah okay. And they're de leveraging. Okay as a share. You're of the economy. They have a lot less debt than they used to. Okay so here's the fun fact. Okay for the first time he the Judge Fair enough. Here's as my attempted to fuck Ya. Okay okay for the first time since one thousand nine hundred ninety one households now have less debt overall than both American businesses and and they have less debt overall than the American government. I'm surprised that it wasn't always that way. So personal debt was above Corporate debt in government debt it was above corporate debt. I'm not sure it was above government but I do know that essentially just now households and businesses have kind switch places businesses have just overtaken household that so like what maybe like. What does that mean? Gene I'm not sure people debate whether or not the rise in corporate debt over the last ten years is something to worry about right in some sense There's there's a reason that businesses have been taken out more debt. Interest rates are Super Low. So it's cheaper to take out that debt and the economy has gotten bigger. It makes sense sense that some companies would take out bigger loans in order to like finance their operations. The question is are they taking out too much debt. And that's the thing that everybody's sort of debating right now now. Okay Yeah Okay so phenomenon I or two four four to four point five interesting. It's interesting it's definitely not fun. Fair okay Last one right after the wounded wounded. It's it's going to happen it's going to happen. You gotta be able. Don't feel terrible phenomenon is always so you only unmerciful honesty. The bride be honest and UNMERCIFUL Caz all right from almost famous goes okay last set of facts. Okay it's about homebuyers fires all right back in nineteen eighty one. The typical age of somebody buying a home was thirty one years old. WHOA that's super young right? You know what it is now forty seven years old really is GonNa below okay. Is this housing crisis this recovery and people not having. It's a long money. It's from a series of longer term trends than that so for one thing that's all homebuyers homebuyers not people who are buying their first home. The rise in the age of first time homebuyers has been more modest but still something to note so it's gone from twenty nine years old back then to about thirty three years old now. Okay and the reason that's happened is because young people now have like more student. Loan debt. Right they got hit really badly by the financial crisis of ten years ago earlier. Generations didn't have that okay so they were able to buy homes a little bit earlier. Okay but also this has to do do with the fact that the population overall is aging and so people who buy home like their second homes or people who trade in a home and buy a new home so repeat homebuyers. Their their typical age has really skyrocketed. It's gone from thirty six years old to fifty five years old just by virtue of the fact that the population is aging and some of them also had to wait a little while to buy their next home so well. My parents just bought a new home this year. And they are in their seventies. Congratulations yes you the Vanik. Smith's Smith I haven't seen it yet actually. But so why did they buy a home in their seventies. They were pretty far outside of town so they wanted a place that was smaller. And in a little more manageable they had like a big yard and everything like that was a lot to handle so they wanted to like a place. That was a little more manageable. Here's one question for them. Yeah I why wait until seventies to do that. Why not buy that home in their fifties or sixties well? They really loved where they were living. They were living in a great place. It was just like a little bit far outside of town and it was kind. The belong drive and it would take a while to get plowed in the snow and bright and he loved that house though and I loved that house okay. Yeah meanwhile Brooklyn Night Stacey Vanik Smith yes. It's like me a renter I I know I know. I don't know what is going to have to happen to my finances for me to buy. But I'm like in the forty seven thing because that makes me feel like I've got at some time all right excellent so those were three facts. I'M GONNA call it two out of three there. You seem pretty interested in very interested. I think that's a very fun fact. Also because it makes me feel less anxiety which is a good thing over the holidays right the whole feeling of like I got some time is a good feeling. So you're the fun for at least two of those and and Thunder Tiger for the second layer taker. I'm sorry it was good Always a pleasure stacey thank you everybody have a great weekend and and send us your recommendations for what we can call stacy. Black Friday with those This episode of the indicator was produced produced by Jared Marcel. Nadia Lewis our fact checker and interim Patty hearst our editor and indicator is a production of.

Paul Volcker fed stacy Stacey Vanik Smith State Farm Renter NPR Heroin Dredd FDIC State Farm Dot Com American government Sylvester Stallone. Stacey nick Cardiff Patty hearst Gene Brooklyn
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

07:57 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Support for this podcast and the following message come from Google from Connecticut to California from Mississippi Minnesota millions of American businesses. These are using google tools to grow online learn more at Google dot com slash grow. This message comes from. NPR sponsor state. Farm why do you need state farm renter's insurance because it helps protected this stuff. Landlords don't like your furniture gets drenched by a broken pipe state farm renter's insurance find an agent or get a quote at state. Farm Dot Com. Economists are terrible about gifts. Oh no no no no no no search you know now we have brilliant it gives. Now it's a it's a particular angle that you guys take on gift giving. It's all about efficiency like economics is about deficiency and gifts are not particularly efficient. That is not necessarily their goal. When you buy a Christmas gift this is a big expenditure of resources? Sources and people worked hard to create this thing and yet some gifts not all gifts are not actually valued by the people who received them what they value is the the gesture the connection and the larger the gift the more resources have been put into it the bigger the potential waste and so if instead I were to maybe give view a really small gift that showed some real personal thought that I really thought a lot about what you wanted maybe written. You're a handwritten letter rather than I'm just saying I'm going to go to macy's and just going to buy something big in a big golden box and I don't care about stacy I just care about gesture isn't the handwritten letter. Isn't that better sir. You're telling me you're telling me that I'm getting it wrong. The exclusive right so thoughtful gift than a giant mindless gift. Sure still you WANNA gift. Okay I hear you. You don't WanNa let you WANNA gift so okay plan. He is what I need to do is to find out what you actually want. Is the efficient present hypothesis present. This is mine. Efficient president hypotheses Russian president hypothesis is. If I get something I think you really want. You've already got it. You think I'm joking but this happens a love. I've had this experience with with my wife. For example I know. She really likes his particular brand of woolen socks. Keep our feet warm in the winter and so last Christmas yes I thought I was smart guy. We got your wife socks not just expect like one of the things. She really likes his socks so I got these sure that's true. I am sure it's socks and gift. Cards are the are the junk bonds of gifts okay. So here's the reason. I'm sure it's true. She bought the same pair of socks herself and gave it to me to like. Oh please give me this gift for Christmas. And I'm like I already bought those socks for you like herself. A Christmas Ms President and gave it to you to give to her because she didn't trust me to do it right so good that I was bad because we bought the same thing so the solution to all of if this is ask all wishlist. Now I know what you think you this point. Wow that's so kind of mechanical. So that's like you're not even thinking surprise. The prize registered for Christmas gift. I don't know do you have an official wish-lists that you give to all your friends. No just my family. I don't the family to send people please by this stuff and I ask them for their wish list. And if they don't have stuff on the wishlist I asked them to put stuff on their wishlist. And here's why because I have read. The academic research gathered by Francesca. Gino and Francis Flynn the people receiving the gifts love getting gifts off wishlist. It's like great. That was so thoughtful of you. You went to the trouble to find out what I actually wanted. And you got it for me and I really like that and there was no sense of or you didn't try or you. He didn't surprise me. So people think that wishlist saw like cop-out not really playing the game but they work really well but like when we think about gifts and we think about the economy and we think about like the parallels between the two the economy obviously grows as it becomes more efficient or it has the potential to grow as it becomes more efficient right right relationships grow or become more meaningful very often when they are inefficient right so think about like. The parents aren't spending like a lot of time with their kids or something like that. We could be doing other things sometimes. You're just lazing about but it's meaningful in the context of the relationships when it comes to giving gifts anticipating what somebody wants isn't always a straightforward as like what they themselves have expressed that they want right. Sometimes Times like the Weirdo gift that they absolutely have no use for. Okay is the thing that deepens the relationship and so even if in the moment the person's like okay. This gift right is what I want. I'm like really excited about it. It might not be as memorable say as the incredibly weird thing that you came on. That is there's more use right right. This is like a cash thing like giving cash well so caches another benchmark things a want to give cash like as an economist. Do you feel like you wish you could give people. Cash is big stigma to giving cash. Even we economists. Know if you've had your spouse one hundred dollars on Christmas they love you babe. That's like I know that you know it's funny gift from the airport. I think the wish solution really works for me. You are giving something. It's symbolized this relationship. It symbolizes a certain amount of thought which is not. Hey I went off piste and I thought some crazy Cardiff Cassia kind of gift It was like I thought enough to figure out exactly what you wanted. And I I asked you what you want hidden. I gave you what you wanted and people really the research has people really appreciative By other point is just referred to SOx's the junk bonds of guests but actually I was just thinking junk bonds would be a great gift to give someone. Is that a great risk risk high reward. It's very interesting it's weird. It's flash element. I want junk bonds for Christmas. Jump on sending out. That's okay so that now we got. If let it be known you are now stacy. You are now allowed to buy junk bonds for Christmas because he would really appreciate it if you did. That's it's what the research shows junk bonds all right. Well there is one like irony. I think potentially to like a lot of economists recommendations since for gift buying which is that our economy like a lot. It's not only not only. Is it actually a practical thing. That mm-hmm Christmas retail is like a huge part of a lot of retailers income. And if they don't get that it can become really bad but also as an indicator like people sort of freak out if holiday sales. Those aren't what they are expected to be. So if people followed economists advice about gifts you'll be terrible for the economy to be good for human beings so that's the the China's economists argue. I know the the economy exists. Serve US as I said I. It's not as big as people say but if a big chunk of the economy is devoted two people running around in cramped conditions under a lot of stress working really hard to buy each other staff. They don't actually want like whip we'd better off without. That's all very bleak Christmas. I Love I love Christmas. Do you love Christmas. I'm big into Christmas and I liked by. I The people that they want to receive rum rubbish. So junk bonds for Cardiff got it. Today's episode the indicator was produced by Jared Marcel fact checked by Nadia Lewis our editors Patty hearst indicator is a production of N._p._R...

Google President Cardiff NPR US China macy Connecticut Francesca SOx official Minnesota Francis Flynn Patty hearst Jared Marcel Gino Mississippi California Nadia Lewis
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

03:25 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"The most underrated trend of the past past decade ready. I'm ready all right. Well you know. I hope our listeners in our listeners. Ready exactly our top underrated trend brand of the decade is the spooky consistency of US economic growth. So the economy has been following a weirdly steady path all decade-long along but that consistency it sounds like a pretty positive thing but it is both a good and a bad thing. That's right it's good. Obviously because the economy has at least continued. Can you growing the entire decade rather than stumbling back into a recession but the consistency is bad because the pace of that growth has been very very slow. And that's especially especially when you consider how devastating the last recession was and so a lot of people a lot of workers and people who want to work have only just recently started benefiting from the economy's recovery even though it is more than a decade old and here's some indicators demonstrate both sides of the story the US economy has now been growing for one hundred twenty six straight straight months including this month. which makes it the longest economic expansion ever but on the other hand throughout the expansion? The economy's only been growing at an annual pace of about two point three percent. That is the slowest pace of growth for any expansion. Going all the way back to the nineteen forties. Now take a look at the unemployment rate. The two thousand ten's will we'll be the first full decade in which the unemployment rate has fallen every single year. That's going all the way back to win. Records were first kept in the late nineteen forties and this sounds awesome right right. I mean falling unemployment means more people getting jobs. This is all good. It should be awesome but hold the celebrations because the decline in the unemployment rate has been super gradual Joel. Not until eight years into the economic recovery to the unemployment rate fall back to where it was before the recession. This means that there were a lot of people who could not find work after the recession. Who have only recently found good consistent work and there are other signs of labor market health? It did not get back to where they were until just this year. This is a horribly horribly longtime to wait and you can look at a bunch of charts showing these and other trends. They all kind of look like straight lines and we'll post the charts at NPR dot org slash money if you WANNA see more but the overall impression they give is one of constant but very slow improvement and this is harmed low income workers the most at the same time they see. I got to say. Hey you know when you think about all that stuff that happened in the past decade the stuff that we listed when we started the episode yeah it is kind of amazing that the US economy just kept going right on through it. It's like the tortoise and the hare like slow and steady. Yeah except like. It's bad that it was so slow. Yeah but it also could have been worse. It's sort of like a big Mac. Is I think the way to describe the past decade but like more like a mess. Give me like a map of the next. I'm kind of hoping that that the upcoming decade can kinda like reverse these things we're like the. US economy grows at really fast awesome pays and it helps workers and society's most vulnerable and everything is calm everywhere else Like for math too. Yeah Yeah exactly and also economics journalists like you and I could use a decade of you know good good news. We might lose our jobs but I would. I think it's worth it. It would be worth it. This episode of the indicator is produced by Rafi on our intern. Is Nadia Lewis. Our editor is Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is a production of N._p._R...

US Paddy Hirsch NPR Nadia Lewis Rafi intern editor
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

07:59 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Support for the indicator and the following message. Come from American Express. You wants to build your business. They can help build your business with financing solutions for eligible business business customers the powerful backing of American Express. Don't do business without it. Terms apply visit American Express Dot com slash business this message comes from from. NPR sponsor state. Farm why do you need state farm renter's insurance because it helps protected this stuff. Landlords don't like your furniture that gets drenched by a broken pipe. Pipe State Farm Renter's insurance finding agents or get a quote at State Farm Dot Com Milka real quick. Before we start the show. We should note that you you reached out to both Nike and Amazon for comment. They did not respond. Right correct But you know we wanted to know what was going on between Nike and Amazon. Here serve out to a leading analyst Omar sorry from ever core. That's an investment banking advisory firm. He is actually tracked the retail market for almost two decades. It's and he had actually a lot of things to say. The ultimate point here is that Nike believes Amazon. Needs it more than it needs Amazon. And that's why they're doing this. Omar more Saad says that Nike decided to pull out of Amazon for at least three reasons. The first reason is that over the past few years Nike started to aggressively market it directly to its customers because it wanted to be in charge of how customers experienced the Nike brand an Amazon. Just kind of fits less and less into that strategy edgy. Second reason we know everything about data and in Nike's is Amazon. Didn't share of the customer data. Nike would've liked to get from this partnership and he comes. The third reason Nike was upset. That Amazon didn't do enough to police the gray market in the sale of fakes on their platform. The Long Story Short I don't think Nike believed that Amazon. Mazang delivered the experience. They want for their consumers There was too much gray INAUTHENTIC and authorized product being sold through Amazon marketplace. You know I once bought this. You know what I thought was going to be this amazing golf bag Yeah it was a callaway golf bag which is a great brand and When I put my golf clubs in the bag the way the legs replaced it tipped over it? Couldn't stand up straight with the golf clubs in it was clearly a fake give thankfully Amazon took it back but those are the kinds of consumer experiences that people have when it's just kind of this open market wild west Cowboy for marketplace. Now some of these third party sellers on Amazon are selling fakes but a lot of them are selling genuine Nike Nike products. And they buy these products from a wholesaler and then they're expected to sell those goods those Nike goods to people only in their local areas out of their stores. But instead sometimes these sellers don't stick to that and they might go online and sell those goods anywhere and everywhere. What they've been doing is kind of on the sly fly? Changing their name and selling Amazon's third party website at a discount. That's where this grey market is coming from. It's actually Nike's own existing customers so he'll imagine Jin. That Nike was hoping Amazon. Would police these third party sellers right. Yes when Nike started selling directly Amazon they obviously had hoped that Amazon Amazon would start policing these third party sellers and also would police the fake products on their platforms. Okay and did they do enough of that. It doesn't look like they did enough so Nike's he's pretty unhappy about this and actually if you look on Amazon right now you still see that. There was a ton of Nike products. Even after Nike has pulled out of Amazon so I talked talked to Omar about it and he showed me how big this problem is. Oh that's pretty crazy. He'll look at this shoe. So this this pegase Shoe Nike Zoom Pegasus. Thirty five running shoe. The price is eighty three ninety nine ranging to two hundred eighty one twenty-one so and you really have to pick your color and your size there could be dozens dozens if not hundreds of different sellers just for one Nike Air Zoom Pegasus thirty-five running shoe. So he'll get kind of. Sounds like you know more. We're getting a little frustrated looking for that. Pegasus running shoe absolutely looking through all the shoes the different sizes it was a frustrating experience. And I think that a lot of other customers have that same experience with Nike is a brand that wants to protect how it's perceived and how the consumer experience perceives it especially in these new digital realm so to speak and today today Nike's business is all about that kind of consumer interaction about thirty percent of Nike sales volume is directly to consumers in that sector has been growing year a year after year. They're selling direct to the consumer and they're having that direct relationship for the consumer hit and they also get the customer's data. This is a total change from Nike's traditional way of doing doing business for example here's Omar Saad describing. How Nike did business like twenty years ago? It's a fascinating discussion. Because when Nike was ninety five percent wholesale their business model was you know. Do some high level brand marketings run a campaign like just do it and billboards and some TV spots And then you wait for the phone to ring. And it's one the retailers like footlocker. Dick Sporting goes. Let's have twenty thousand yellow ones in ten thousand white ones and you know. Nike dials. Up At supply chain in Asia. And you know six months later. The shoes are are being delivered to the retailers in Nike's wiping his hands and the and the retailers of the ones that are owning that consumer interaction but now things are different today. Nike wants wants to know who is the customer. Maggie knows who I am old. I am kind of income core tile. I'm in who my kids are. What sports they play? You know they can see you know through through the APP. What different kind of content interview we interact with and engage with Nike knows who you are and based on that knowledge the company will try to sell you more than the sneakers? You came to the APP for it can do this wherever you're shopping on. Nike's APP and one of their stores via Social Media Nike wants customers to emotionally nationally. Connect to its brand. which hopefully will motivate them to obviously by its products and ideally directly from Nike and not through a third party seller or the Amazon but it does raise the question? What about the convenience that shoppers love when they do go to Amazon being? What Nike's doing that? As well Nike he has two day shipping and next day shipping now but the company also offers pick up in store. So you can swing by on your way home from work and avoid the return hassle. This is one of the clear advantages into just traditional retailers. Have they already have stores near where people live. Nike has caught up in other ways as well. The company now puts tracking tags on most of its products products and it knows where every single item is at any given time and the tracking is not limited to one location Nike contract inventory across the physical stores and warehouses houses and the whole network serves basically as a gigantic distribution center. This means if you order a shoe Nike can send it to you from their own warehouse or any physical Nike store. Or whether it's in Los Angeles or in New York you're seeing retailer is finally starting to figure out how to use their store networks as a competitive advantage and everyone thought thought that the these digital disruptors we're GONNA send retail into permanent tailspin and there has been massive disruption. Let's be clear I mean the business model has changed the inventory model. How consumers shop and it's taken several years for these companies to adapt but to me it's clear they're adapting? He'll get this kind of does raise the question. Though of whether or not other the companies will also try to pull out Amazon or whether it's just a nike specific thing. I know I know well. It's hard to say because the truth is baked brands. They can probably pull it off like Nike. You have a strong connection. Direct connection to the consumer small brands. And they're gonNA pull it off. Probably not even those companies that can connects that well with consumers. Some of them may not want a lot of Amazon area. Love it Thanks so much for bringing a story. Thank you so much for having me. Today's episode indicator was produced by Jared Marcel. Fact Checker is Nadia Lewis. Our Editors Patty hearst indicator is a production of N._p._R...

Nike Amazon Omar Saad American Express American Express Dot Pipe State Farm NPR callaway golf State Farm golf Patty hearst Mazang Jared Marcel Nadia Lewis Dick Sporting
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

08:18 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Breath everyone indicator from planet money. I'm Cardiff Garcia. Today's episode begins with a question. Is there any way to know in real time if an economic recession has started and that's actually a tricky question but there is an answer the answer is called the psalm rule named after the economists. who recently discovered it a cloudy Assam and who is cloudy Assam so I have been twelve years at the Federal Reserve Board and the first ten years were on the staffs macro forecast the last two years I have worked in the division of consumer and Community Affairs and now I am the first director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for equitable growth? You're the eponymous economist. After which the rules named. How can that be your new nickname? Police sure combined navy twitter profile excellent. I suspect cloudy. It might not end up using economist economist in her twitter profile. But after the break break you our listeners are going to get to hear my conversation with her explaining what the Psalm is and also why it matter so much that we identify early on when a recession historic. Finally policymakers can do if the sun will is triggered and a recession indeed has started. This message comes from. NPR SPONSOR TIAA committed to the idea that while most things in life run out from clean shirts in the morning to a favorite dessert at night lifetime income in retirement shouldn't learn more at Tiaa dot org slash. Never runout support also comes from Google from Connecticut to California from Mississippi to Minnesota millions of American businesses are using Google tools else to grow online learn more at Google dot com slash. Grow the last recession. You know the big one that ended roughly a decade ago started in December. Remember two thousand and seven but the committee within the economics world that officially identifies the start of a recession. Didn't make the announcement until December two thousand eight affoil year later. It's actually called a recession. Dating Committee were sounds a lot more fun than it actually is. That is economists. Cloudy Assam and she says it is normal normal for this committee to take a while to be delivered. Take its time when it's identifying the start of a recession see the recession dating committee weights because it wants to be sure that there actually actually was a recession and also because the committee is looking at a lot of data to confirm that there was quote a significant decline in economic activity Spread across the economy lasting more than a few months unquote. That's how the committee defines a recession into be cleared those experts and they're all very senior macro-economists macro-economists they're looking at the data all the time especially when the economy starts to soften but what they're using as a whole host of data now there is also an unofficial way to know if there has been a recession which is if the economy shrinks for two straight quarters which is obviously half a year but that takes a while to know also uh-huh especially since the quarterly growth statistics. Take a while to come out after each quarter ends so that if hypothetically a recession started last month in October we wouldn't find out about it until almost the start of next May so based on her research cloudy came up with a better way the psalm rule what is is the psalm rule. So this psalm rule. It's all based off the unemployment rate. Okay so quicken. Injection the unemployment rate that is the share of people in the labor force who do not have jobs but are looking for jobs and since the unemployment rate can sometimes fluctuate from month to month for arbitrary reasons. The summer looks at the three month. Average of the unemployment unemployment rate to smooth out those fluctuations back to Klaudia so he take a three month average of the monthly unemployment rate. Okay then I look at any month. Oh relative to the prior twelve months so I'm using thirteen months data and what I do is win the difference. So when the current unemployment rate is a a half percentage point or more above the prior low over that prior twelve months. Then we're in a recession okay. So there's a little bit to unpack there so here is what what it means in practice right now. The three month average of the unemployment rate is three point six percent so that's number to focus on three point. Six percent blissett starts rising and within the next year. Let's say July of next year it has climbed half a percentage point and it hits four point one one percent that means that the psalm rule has been triggered and a recession has started within the prior few months. Well in fact since the nineteen seventies. That's always he's been the case any time from the seventies on every time it triggers we are two to four months into a recession and the big advantage of the Psalm. Rule over over the other ways of knowing if an economy's in recession is that we find out much sooner that the recession has started and cloudy work on. Recessions does not stop there. She also so came up with a way. For policymakers to respond wants to SOM- rule has been triggered and we know the recession is indeed underway. And so I developed the Psalm ruled to put a proposal. Together that said payments to household individuals in a recession should be automatic. They should happen as fast as they can. In a recession they should be noticeable cinema thousand dollars or more and get that money out to household so they they don't have to cut back on spending as much there. They know that the government is trying to do something to support them. Cloudy is ideas. Note an economics as has an automatic stabiliser. It's automatic because once the economy does something specific like say it triggers the Psalm rule then. The response from the government is automatic. Those checks go out because Congress already agreed how the government will respond to stabilize the economy hence the name automatic stabiliser and cloudy. Saudis proposal is based on research from the past couple of decades including some of her own and that research shows that people will spend more money to boost the economy if they get a big one time payment than if they get a smaller steady stream of payments that hits their paychecks. Every couple of weeks and cloudy says. There's a good reason for why every household I should get a big check and not just those where someone has lost a job or had their wages cut early in a recession. It's hard to know who is going to be hit hard and and there's a lot of anxiety. There are a lot of households that no. They're on the margin and we want to support them. We don't want them to stop spending to stop supporting the lifestyle they have. So that's the idea and you know what the Psalm rule has become a big league hit with economists. But it's worth noting that Claudia herself is actually hoping for obvious reasons that we don't have to apply for a while. Here's a question that thinks on everybody's everybody's mind. What is the some real saying right now? We're not in a recession excellent. Yes that's a very happy thing. I did talk. Talk to someone and they're like well. This is going to be you know. The big test is when the next recession happens. And I'm like you know what frankly I'd be happy to wait a long time for that. Yeah no kidding thing you know decades and decades possibly be Australia. They've had like twenty seven straight years or something like that without a recession Cloudy Sam thanks so much for being on the indicator thank you and that's it that's the psalm rule if you want to know more about it how it works cloudy. wrote a detailed peace about it a and about automatic stabilisers brookings think tank earlier this year. We'll post a link to it at NPR dot org slash money and on twitter. This podcast gas was produced by Lena. Sons Gerry our editors Patty I or fact checkers Nadia Lewis in the indicator is a production of NPR. Also by the way the indicator is on Thanksgiving break tomorrow Thanksgiving Day and on Friday. So we'll be back on Monday and we wish all of you our listeners. A very happy and restful Thanksgiving holiday break.

twitter Assam NPR Google Dating Committee Cardiff Garcia Australia Federal Reserve Board Community Affairs Washington Center Gerry Congress Klaudia Nadia Lewis
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

08:45 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Saudi Arabia's state owned oil company. Saudi Aramco is legendary the company owns and runs Saudi. Arabia's oilfields Aramco is is also known to be an incredibly secretive company. It bankrolls the Saudi Royal Family and it's thousands of Princes Aramco makes up most of Saudi Arabia's entire economy so when Aramco announced that it was going to go public and start selling shares of stock people went crazy exchanges. All over the world. Were doing it out out for the IPO. The New York Stock Exchange exchanges in London China Japan. Everyone wanted to be the exchange that was selling Aramco. Stock Banks were also fighting it out for or a piece of the action. There was just so much money at stake. Rumors the company's value at two trillion dollars. Which would make the biggest company in the world wealthier than Apple Assan even Alibaba and this was set to be the biggest? IPO ever but going public means the public owns a chunk of your company usually usually around twenty percent and that comes with a bunch of regulations and transparency. You have to open your books and subject yourself to all kinds of scrutiny. Saudi Aramco Coke really didn't want to do that and it's been more than a year jumping from exchange to exchange trying to find someone who would bend the rules enough that proved to be difficult and and in fact last week. Saudi Arabia announced that the search was over. It was just going to sell the shares of Aramco itself on its own local Saudi exchange which seems like such a downshift township from the initial like Neg ambitions of the ARAMCO IPO. This is the indicator from planet. Money I'm Stacey Vanek Smith Today on the show the Aramco. IPO what happens. And what does it mean for Saudi Arabia this message comes from. NPR sponsor their state farm. Why do you need state farm renter's insurance because it helps protect stuff landlords? Don't like your furniture that gets drenched by a broken pipe. State farm arm Renter's insurance find an agent or get a quote at State Farm Dot Com. Today on the show we're talking with Samantha Gross. She's a fellow in foreign policy. At the Brookings Institution Samantha. Thank you for talking with us. My pleasure happy to talk to you. Do you remember when you first heard that the Saudi government was going to start selling shares shares of ARAMCO's stock. Absolutely I saw the interview that Mohammed bin Salman did with the Economist. My first thought was literally as your Daddy. Now that you're you're talking about this because this is a really selling Saudis family jewels and I was shocked that they would go so far as to consider this. Well I remember the thing that I was so captivated by was so in an initial public offering companies have to open their books their subject. All these reviews use the ideas your companies now owned by the public. You can raise a lot of money but the other side of that is you're subject to all these regulations and everybody gets to see under the curtain like everybody. Nobody gets to see all the things and so. I was all excited at the prospect of all this information coming out about Aramco but it seems like from the very first time I heard about witnesses expected sort of a normal. IPO things changed a little. Well it's been a real trade off the reason why Mohammed bin Salman wanted to do this. It's because he wanted to sell five percent of Aramco take it public in order to get money for his vision. Twenty thirty plan to revolutionize the Saudi economy and to make it less dependent dependent on oil and so that was a serious goal that he intended to bring in serious money for however the trade off is transparency that there's never been around Saudi Aramco. Hamco this is a difficult thing for them to think about. The rewards are great but also the risks and the challenges of that level of transparency are also great. I mean you know there. There is a real upside to an IPO going public. which is you raise a ton of money? There's a real downside. which is you are exposed as a company in a Lotta ways and it is like it almost seemed like they didn't want the downside including what you just mentioned which is that? They wanted to put five percent of the company public which is like a really tiny mountain normally. It's much higher than telling five percent of the world's largest companies still a ton of money. Yes but then. It doesn't mean five percent transparency in order to sell five percent of the company. You need to do just as much much transparency if you would if you're putting the whole thing up for an IPO. And so. I think they wanted sort of some transparency. But it doesn't work that ah you need complete transparency to to publicly offer any of the company right so in in the very beginning. I mean this was going to be the prettiest girl all at the dance for lack of a better metaphor and so it did seem like one by one. The major exchanges kind of backed away and then Saudi Arabia was talking to some kind of more obscure. The exchange is part of that was because the Saudis didn't want to meet some of the requirements that those exchanges had that they really couldn't bend. I mean those requirements are there to to protect investors and so then the Saudis sort of backed away and started looking at different exchanges at looking at private placements within institutional investors and in different ways to sort of float part of the company. Get money back without this full level of transparency. That was a lot for them. Yeah this was supposed to be the IPO of the century and then became sort of progressively ratcheted down to like more and more modest goals. Well Yeah and I think it ultimately fell apart heart just last weekend actually because they had a herd of bankers. I'm not sure what you call a hurt of bankers a number of bankers murder of crows or something exactly a flock of seagulls heard of bankers. Who was who were there advising them on the IPO in these bankers came in and said if a few place this he'll publicly in western countries? This is what we think it's worth. And they came up with numbers as low as one point one trillion. I'm some up to one point point five trillion but they weren't with the kingdom was looking for and so the kingdom was very frustrated and felt like well you know. Why should we sell this company to Western investors dress for less than we think it's worth? Why don't we place it locally on the Tato of a the Saudi exchange I'm and sell it to local investors and maybe we can get more money for it but even the local bankers wouldn't put a two trillion dollar valuation on Aramco Right? No they did not. They settled at about a one point. Six to one point seven trillion billion dollar value valuation. Why wouldn't they just say yes to two trillion like that? Seems I was shocked to read about that pushback. You know. They didn't feel like they could place it at that level revel in. It's an interesting when you think about what Saudi Aramco is worth. You have to look at a couple of different things. That oil is involved in sort political skirmishes in that part the world. We saw what Iran did recently in attacking the facilities there They demonstrated that those facilities are vulnerable. And that is important to evaluation evaluation of Saudi Aramco. Oh there's no question that they can make money and no question that their oil will continue to be valuable going forward but the question is what price they'll get for that oil so if we take climate change seriously if we see the demand for oil go down on that oils likely to sell at a lower price so they clearly have a proven track record into making money and they have a lot of inexpensive well but the question is how long can they make as much money as they have in the past and so now it seems like Aramco's Ramco in this weird position of going public for a lot less money than it wanted locally Saudi exchange and apparently kind of twisting people's arms to promised to buy the stock. They want to make sure that this public offering is fully subscribed. I've also heard tell of some pressure on sort of V very wealthy people little within the Kingdom to buy stock some of the same people that the kingdom rounded up a couple years ago. And I'm put them in the Ritz Carlton for a little wiles. Shakedown like Ritz is not nearly the kind of shakedown. That that was but I think some of them are being gently encouraged to buy around cuffs graphs. Just crazy because one point seven trillion dollars still make Saudi Aramco the most valuable company in the world. It is the most valuable company in the world. The I mean this the Saudi family jewels. And if you think about the pride enjoy of your country think the engine that makes your country move and you have a thought in your your head about what that is worth. It's very difficult to sell it. For Less Alright Samantha. Thank you thank you no problem. Today's episode of the indicator was produced by Jared Marquel L. fact checked by Nadia Lewis. Editor is Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is a production of NPR..

Saudi Aramco Aramco Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco Coke Princes Aramco Saudi Royal Family Saudi government Samantha Gross Mohammed Arabia NPR Stock Banks New York Salman Ritz State Farm Dot Com
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

07:28 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"This message comes from? NPR sponsor state farm. Why do you need state farm renter's insurance because it helps protect stuff landlords? Don't like your furniture that gets drenched by a broken pipe. State Farm Renter's insurance find an agents or get a quote at State Farm Dot Com about two years into their stay at a Kenyan refugee camp after fleeing Somalia Mustafa Nor and his family found that they had been selected to be resettled in the US and initially they had mixed feelings so in the country select you. You're notified two years in that. Hey you know. United States has selected you and that has in the refugee camp that always comes as a great news center. Santa about bad news because Because the United States takes the longest to process innovating they have a hard process. They have hottest scrutiny. Hot above ranch aches six. And he's right. The vetting process for refugees coming to the. US is intense. There's multiple interviews and background checks and security checks by different branches of the US government. It's fingerprints tests for contagious diseases. It can take years from office family. It took a decade but eventually as with other refugees who make it through the whole process assess. The family was paired with a resettlement agency. Mustafa and his family were paired with Church World Service which has a branch in Lancaster. It's nonprofit that receives funding funding from the federal government and from private donors and it sets up refugee families with a few months of housing some counseling services food and clothing and then they tried to US find your job right away because once you around here you have to start paying your bill for the government for bringing you a lot of people. I don't know this but yes refugees payback the US government for the cost of flying here from the southwest big family. Those were not cheap flights around eleven twelve hundred per person so a family of ten ten people. You get a bill of almost ten thousand dollars. Mustafa says he found Lancaster City. Lancaster County unexpectedly welcoming to his refugee family and to other refugee families and that in fact is the city's reputation in two thousand sixteen before the trump administration started limiting. How many refugees could come to the US? The number of refugees were resettled. In Lancaster. City hit a peak of four hundred and seven as a share of the city's population. That's almost twenty three times more more refugees resettled than in the US as a whole which is why. The city was labeled the refugee capital of America by the BBC. So why is Lancaster able to resettle so many refugees. One reason is resources. For example Church World Service. The Resettlement Agency is able to partner with local organizations to provide services is beyond just the basics beyond the initial housing and food and clothes for example. There's a nonprofit that provides health care to refugees. English language tutors the school district and in universities to help with education employment programs and companies that will actively try to hire refugees and train them. She masto Prieto runs. The Lancaster Office of Church World World Service and she says that all these resources make it possible for Lancaster to accept even the hardest cases. Like when there's a huge refugee family of ten or fifteen people or when a refugee has a medical issue and can't work or if a refugee only speaks a really obscure foreign language there are no cases in this area that we that we would refuse so we do have the option when cases sent to us by our national office to say they basically. They're saying will you accept this case so we always do and it's not just tangible resources. There's something else that has given Lancaster the ability to absorb refugees. Its history starting. In the early eighteenth century entry members of the Mennonite and Amish churches were fleeing persecution in Europe and started moving to Lancaster. The county still has a huge amish mennonite population and and the value of welcoming people in need of a new home has remained Steve Noel. A professor at Elizabethtown College spoke with us at the Mennonite historical society which features exhibits exhibits about the Amish and Mennonite history of Lancaster. Well in the in the late nineteen seventies and early nineteen eighties. For example Mennonites in this area were were deeply involved in resettlement of refugees from Southeast Asia. from from Vietnam Cambodia Laos and that's that was motivated both by Christian humanitarian concerns and also concerns that as Mennonites as conscientious objectors pacifists. I am in fact Mustafa's own experience right after arriving in Lancaster reflects this my first ever job. was I worked with Amish. I used to work for a company that build moved garages and sheds so used to install windows. He did well enough at this job installing windows for these sheds that he was hired by a company called E. Impact Marketing working which provides marketing for amish companies in the area in which trained Mustafa in Web design. Mustafa would end up becoming their head web developer and then he started thinking thinking more broadly he started a company called bridge which is a website where people can sign up to have dinner in the home of a refugee family in the area. The refugee family will cook the meal and share their story and the family will also said a fever. The dinner which it gets to keep bridge charges service fee which is how it makes money. Mustafa's office original pitch for bridge. One A business plan competition which provided the funding to get started. My feature was done I was gonNA instead of instead of free training or giving refugees a new skill. Why not give them a plot from where they can on an income with what they already know and we'll have their culture under food and part one we? We explained how refugees and immigrants contribute to an economy by helping its population grow and giving new businesses more people to sell two into higher Adamo MIC. The Lancaster based economist. I says it stories. Like Mustafa's also demonstrate the more subtle ways to immigrants and refugees contribute a move into neighborhoods that others might find less desirable herbal and they start interesting businesses and they really contribute to the diversity of consumer experiences downtown and you can in downtown like stir. You can eat into Vietnamese place. You can meet on Nepalese place. There's just a huge amount of writing. Her Moustapha says his company is making money and he even has plans to expand into neighboring in York County and he adds. His story shows the symbiotic relationship between the Lancaster economy and it's refugees and it goes something like this. The success of the Economy Konami makes it possible for the city to offer resources to these refugees so that they can prosper and they're prospering feeds right back into the success of the Lancaster economy. So what happens happens is warning refugee person comes here the community. This community has done a very good job of harnessing that refugee person as a whole from employment to training to the job opportunities to internship training. So I I went through those different circles of of coming here sieving. Welcome Hi finding a stable able job and then how developing a skill. Which is the development web development using that skill to create a company? Now so it's a great circle on. It's it's a something which is very I don't WanNa say unique. What's special about Lancaster? Lancaster is now a pretty good place to get it by. This episode of the indicator was produced by Lena Sons Gary fact check by Nadia Lewis. Our Editors Paddy Hirsch in indicator is a production of NPR.

Lancaster Mustafa United States Lancaster Office of Church Wor Lancaster County Lancaster City Resettlement Agency State Farm Renter Church World Service NPR federal government State Farm Dot Com Somalia Paddy Hirsch masto Prieto Europe Santa BBC
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

07:45 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Yes okay we got this from the economist Jed Cocoa of indeed. And here's what he did. He built this model that tried to figure out the growth in earnings for people who likely voted for Hillary Clinton in two two thousand sixteen and then compared them to the earnings growth of people. Who'd likely voted for Donald Trump in two thousand sixteen okay so he used the ones like demographic combinations like racial and ethnic background where you live all that stuff to determine the likely voter behavior? It's like salary wise investments in everything. Just how much you get paid for your your job okay. Weekly basis paycheck. Exactly here is fact number one ready for this okay. People who likely voted for Donald Trump. I've been twenty sixteen in the past year. Their weekly earnings have grown by about two point. Nine percent okay okay people who likely voted for Hillary Louis Clinton you know how much their earnings have gone up in the past year. No five point nine percent twice as fast. That's interesting why so. This is all a bit speculative effective but I had a little tweet discussion with Jed. There's a few possibilities. One is that manufacturing has really suffered this year right the regions that that have a lot of manufacturing activity so that not just people who work in manufacturing but also people who work in industries in those places that have a lot of manufacturing activity might might also have suffered. That's a possibility. And the sort of difference between goods making sectors and services sectors might also account for some of the distinction right goods making sectors could have been hit by the trade war. That's exactly right. Sort of the irony of this is that the trade war might be one of the things it's keeping down the earnings growth of people people who likely voted for Donald Trump. I think that's really interesting. Yes off to a great start. I love it. I'm super interested. Okay number two is one of both of our favorite indicators okay. It's the prime age employment to population ratio. Yet right okay. Yeah take all. The people in their prime working. Age is so that's between the ages of twenty five and fifty four right so people in that age group. How many of those people have job? That's the Prime Age employment to population appellation ratio. The fact is this last month. It's at eighty point three percent and that is the first month in which this this ratio has gotten back to where it was before the recession started. Oh to go in that ratio has only you just now arrived. Wow that a slow. That's a slow recovery. It's bad it's a really slow recovery and I think it goes along because like it's it feels like the economy's been doing well for a long time. Yeah for a few years. At least I think this is has to do with. How awful and severe that recession was you know like the economy economy was in such a horrible place? I mean you and I remember this but like I don't know younger people people in like their twenties or whatever like they might not know just how awful it was was but it was terrible. It was awful. Yeah exactly A bit of a subject here by the way came across in a Bloomberg article by the writer Justin in Fox in recent years. There's been a lot of progress in that exact ratio for women all across that age spectrum so from from twenty five to fifty four women have been getting jobs right to pay at a at a pretty fast pace in fact for them. Eighty s yet for them that employment to population elation ratio for the prime ages is higher than it was before the recession started. I UH-HUH FOR MEN. They are still a little bit below their their peak from before. The recession started. Well women tend to be a little cheaper to hire because they get paid less so it could be that you know. Yeah these are getting some deals in overall terms. There's still a gap between men and women. Men still have those jobs than women. Yes yes so but I just thought thought it note that that's kind of an interesting little subplot that's interesting right to add a two. I'm impressed this last one's a little bit tough. I gotTa tell you this. This might be the thing that stinks it. Okay okay. Are you ready for this. Yeah two weeks ago the yield curve uninvited. It's back to a normal looking yield curve the weights. Wait wait wait okay so that would seem to be good news. Because an inverted yield curve has been linked to moments of recession. Yes right like it has a very very very good track record of this right exactly right so listeners. To our earlier episodes we'll know that for the last six decades. Okay seven out of the seven past. Recessions sessions were preceded by an inverted yield curve an inverted yield curve means short-term interest rates on government bonds are higher than long term interest rates on government bonds and typically means that economic growth is going to slow and tip into recession. Okay here's the interesting thing. The yield curve is now uninvited which does mean that. The outlook is better for the economy. Now but didn't you tell me the other day that ever like before recession start. The yield curve does unimpressed. I did the recession con so this is not good news. Well it might be though. I know. Here's the thing. So for the last three recessions. It is true that the a yield curve uninvited before the recession started anyways. But thinking about it this way when the yield curve on invert it does mean that. The outlook has gotten better in part because policymakers have taken steps to alleviate the damage from the oncoming recession. And so the way to think about this is policy. See makers will respond sometimes to the inverted yield curve and they'll try to do things to stimulate the economy but sometimes things they do arrive too late and so you get the recession anyways. The Federal Reserve has been lowering interest rates this year and so the question is did they get there in time. Have they acted unleash. The economy fast enough to avoid the recession. That might have arrived in the absence. Right like did they feel the cold coming on. took a ton of ECHINACEA vitamin ADAMANCY and got a good night's sleep and they're fine. That is that's the question really right and we don't know we won't find out until another year or so. I'll be honest. Yeah I am actually increasingly optimistic. Really that this might might be the time that finally the yield curve Stops acting as a recession predictor. Why what makes you think that in part because there was a lot less dismissive nece about the yield curve? This time I. I think there's a chance that the Federal Reserve now recognizes that the economy was in a dangerous place it has acted to stimulate the economy and it might just be enough to to get us through this time. I'm hoping the little canary in a coal mine and like the powers that be paid attention and maybe it saved us from a recession. I mean we're hoping that's that's the case right. Of course. Yeah so So what do you think Fun Fact Friday or Stacy's not impressed well. The last thing that could qualify defies is fun. I think we're GONNA have to make this thing. No I really like it because all I have to do is gauge my level of being impressed. Which is actually you know as a New Yorker something that I I like to do anyway? Today's episode of the indicator was produced by Jared Marcel. Our fact checkers Nadia Lewis. Our Editors Patty Hirsch and the indicator is a production of of N._p._R..

Donald Trump Hillary Louis Clinton Jed Cocoa Federal Reserve Jared Marcel Patty Hirsch Nadia Lewis Bloomberg Stacy Fox writer Justin three percent Nine percent nine percent six decades two weeks
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

09:01 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Season has begun politics coverage of what you might call widely varying quality is going to be everywhere for the next year and we'd indicator also acknowledged that politics does matter for what we cover for the economy in business and finance and money stuff because who gets elected can determine which canonic policies ended up being enacted. Obviously so we are not going to shy away from covering politics during the election cycle. And there's maybe no better guests to start doing this with our old friend. The economist Chad bound at the Peterson. Institute Chattanooga's co-authors Emily Blanchard and Davin shore have just finished a study trying to assess the potential affects of the trade war on last year's elections in the House of Representatives twenty eighteen election's that was when Democrats flipped forty seats there were previously held by Republicans. And we're going to speak with him about what that might tell us about the politics of Trade Chad. Welcome thanks for having me. The silly season never are really starts and stops. Actually now that I think about it right. It's just kind of there it is never ending. It's it's going on all the time that's absolutely right So Chad before the break what letting x just set up this paper force. What were you trying to analyze? Well back in in two thousand eighteen. We had to really big things that took place. The first obviously obviously for at least from my perspective was president trump's trade war so we had lots of American tariffs lots of retaliatory tariffs. We had the trump administration doling rolling out tens of billions of dollars in subsidies to the agricultural sector that was hurt by those tariffs and then of course we had the the twenty eighteen midterm elections. So the big question questioned the that we wanted to try to ask in an answer is was there any relationship between the two. Did the trade war have any impact whatsoever on on the flip from Republicans to Democrats in in the House of Representatives yet specifically those three parts of the trade war so first off the tariffs tariffs that the US put on goods that were being bought by Americans in American companies that came in from abroad. Second you said retaliatory tariffs Oh like when China saw hey the US putting on tariffs and we'll put some of our own on American products that are being bought by Chinese people And then third heard the US government gave subsidies to the agricultural sector to try to offset the damage of the trade war. Those three things right. That's exactly right. President Trump did tariffs arison steel aluminum solar panels washing machines and then two hundred fifty billion dollars worth of imports from China China Europe Europe Mexico Canada. A number of countries retaliated against American exports a lot of soybeans but but other farm products and other manufacturing exports as well into lots lots of Americans workers were potentially hurt by that and then the trump administration rolled out twelve billion dollars of subsidies to American farmers that it was concerned. Were being hurt by all that retaliation. That's what we're going to look at to see if we can trace an impact of those sorts of policies on the voting outcomes in the the twentieth election. Let's take a quick break and then we're back we're gonNA discuss what you and your co authors actually found support for. NPR comes from national car rental. The WHO wants you to know that with a membership in our complimentary Emerald Club you can skip the counter and choose any car in the aisle at participating national locations you can even even select an upgrade without paying extra learn more at national car dot com slash NPR. Everybody we've got Chad bound. He's joining us from Washington in DC. Chad let's start with this okay. You wanted to start by studying. The effects of US tariffs on goods that are imported from abroad rod into the US. How did that affect voting behaviour? So there's a number of ways in which tariffs which these taxes that are imposed on things that are produced another their countries can impact the US economy but the most direct way is through your job and so in principle if you are a worker and and you're employed by a company out there that competes with with stuff coming in from another country and all of a sudden president trump imposes tariffs on that thing whether it's steel will or aluminum or washing machines or just something else. We import from China. Now you face less competition from those products coming in and if you're a worker you potentially benefit from that reduction in in competition You may see wage increases and so in those particular instances. You might be more likely to to to vote for the Republican candidate in in your county or in your district In that two thousand eighteen election when we did our study though so we really didn't see any of that showing up in the data. There's really no discernible. Evidence that the workers that stood to benefit from president trump's tariffs were more likely to vote for Republicans in two thousand eighteen election. There were not more likely to vote for Republican. Because of those tariffs exactly there was no influence on their voting behavior okay and what about the retaliatory tariffs so other countries. Then see the American terrorist and say no hang on a second we're GONNA put tariffs of our own so presumably that might hurt American companies right exactly. So if you're an American working at Harley Davidson So the Europeans retaliated against them. Or you know your your soybean farmer pork farmer or you work for Levi's there were lots of products that trading partners retaliated over. We matched those up with a local employment across the United States and we did find evidence that if if you were more more likely to work in one of those industries that was exposed to the trading partner retaliation. You were actually less likely to vote for the Republican candidate in your in your account account your or your district in the twenty eighteen midterm election. Okay so that's sort of part two of the three things that you studied. par-three was interesting because because it involved the US government giving subsidies to farmers and to the agricultural sector in response to the retaliatory tariffs Chris by mainly China against. US farmers did those subsidies from the US government and up affecting voter behavior that we know of there is in fact some evidence that voters that that were receiving those subsidy payments from from the trump administration that were rolled out beginning in the summer of two thousand eighteen they were actually more likely to vote for Republicans in the in the two thousand eighteen election. the effect was small but it did have a bit of an offsetting effect on the fact that those also tended to be the county's areas that we're going to be the ones hurt by the the foreign retaliation when you say that the affect small do you mean that it was not enough to offset the potential loss of votes from the people who worked in counties that suffered from the retaliatory Tori tariffs. That's exactly right and partially that's because Those subsidies were were so geographically concentrated in terms of how they were dispersed I and they also tended to be dispersed in counties that were already very Republican in in terms of how traditionally voted And so at the margin region was really unlikely that that was going to flip any Any votes in in any significant manner. Okay so Chad. What are you wrap all this up for us? Then I mean when you look at these three findings what would be a good takeaway from this study. While the results that we found are relatively small and modest on average average across the United States there particularly important in the most competitive counties in in districts where the votes are close so we looked at in particular the counties that had been very close in the two thousand sixteen election and we see even bigger affects in those counties. And then when you when you add it all blop and we kind of do an exercise there to see how much of this swing of You know say forty votes in the twenty eighteen election toward the Democrats away from the Republicans. Republicans how much of those can be accounted for by the trade war We found that a that a pretty reasonable sized share of those so about fourteen percent of of the the flip can be attributed to the trade war chat down. Thanks for being back on the show man. Thanks for having me. This episode indicator was produced by Lena Sons. Geary fact check by Nadia Nadia Lewis. Our Editors Patty Hirsch in indicator is a production of NPR.

US Chad president Democrats China trump NPR House of Representatives Chattanooga Trump China China Europe Europe Mexi Harley Davidson Levi Emerald Club Emily Blanchard Lena Sons Peterson Washington Patty Hirsch
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

07:04 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"For. NPR comes from national car rental. Who wants you to know that with a membership in our complimentary Emerald Club you can skip the counselor and choose any car in the aisle at participating national locations you can even select an upgrade without paying extra learn more at national car dot com slash? NPR for today's indicator is nine hundred and seventy million that is the estimated number of video streaming subscriptions that are expected to exist in the next x five years And most people in the US they account for one or two of those. Yes at least right now most people in the US say they're willing to spend around twenty bucks per month on streaming which is like no it's a two streaming services maybe three and so these services are in this really tight competition with each other over those dollars. So Sam let's profile some of the League warriors and the streaming war. Oh Yeah let's start with the big one net flicks. It has almost one hundred and sixty million subscribers shocking. That's a lot. I didn't know that much. That is why they charge about nine bucks a month. A lot of folks say that it could be in trouble because net flicks is losing all these big shows like friends and the office to these other new streaming services and the thing about net flicks. Is that friends in. The office. Are Their two biggest shows. Most Watch on Netflix. In terms of minutes watched the old shows do so much better better than all of Netflix original content. Yeah and like I. It's it's much more economical than original content. Because you know people are going to love it you know it's going to be a hit and if you make your own content like queer eye and ozarks. They've definitely made some hits. But you just don't misses a lot of them. Are Mrs so now. Let's just lost all of these. These shows that that have been. It's like it's cash cows. It's losing its main business. So they're in trouble so the second big gun is Amazon. Prime Amazon prime has about one hundred million Liam subscribers they own a bunch of shows and make original shows like the Marvelous Mrs Mazel and the man in the high castle but they have a secret superpower which is that Amazon prime streaming comes with Amazon prime shipping so they can probably afford to be a bit lazy on content. Currently it's about thirteen dollars a month. The streaming almost almost feels like secondary. Yeah it's like the the side dish to getting things shipped to you really fix exactly. And then there is Hulu with twenty eight million subscribers. which is the home of handmaid's tale and now love island solution? Start at six dollars. But who has the service where you can pay to subscribe to just streaming TV so a lot of people. Use It to watch the Olympics. And Sam didn't you signed up to watch the World Cup. I did so. I signed up for the live TV streaming on Hulu to watch the World Cup. But I gotta say Stacy wasn't the best experience because the screen froze a lot. It was no boundary. Maddie buffering. Yo It's back and then on top of I forgot to move the live streaming service or whatever from my Hulu subscription So now that I think about it talking to you I'm still paying forty bucks a month for Hulu really. Ah Stacey there's more Yeah next up is apple. TV plus they have the splashing new show which everyone's been seen gene ad for that TV news. Show with Jennifer Aniston and Steve Carell and Reese Witherspoon. They also have Oprah's book club. I Would Watch Oprah's book the heck out out of that five dollars a month five dollars a month I might do that. That is like super. I mean who knows if it will stay at that price but five dollars a month is good. Then there's HBO Max which is coming next year from Warner Media and SAM. This is where you will now have to find friends and other. Hbo Shows like succession. And Am also sesame street especially street and succession are going to be seen full service. I know it's a little. Oh more expensive. It's fifty packs and then stacey there is more probably what will soon become the big Kahuna Disney. Plus tomorrow it's supposed to be the monster Mr of online streaming. Not only will Disney have all the you know Disney movies. It'll have all the marvel comic stuff and all the Pixar stuff and all the national geographic stuff and star wars star wars could probably have its own streaming site and he's just fine and in fact like the shows that Disney is developing for the streaming. Service has caused all this excitement. That's according to Jessica Reef Erlich. She's an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and she was actually at an analyst meeting at Disney when they introduced Disney anyplace there were audible gasping room when they started talking about mandatory him. Give it to what of their original shows. It is a star wars. Spin off and Jessica Jessica says there was a second gasp and then the second one time was when they announced the which was shocking. Love seven dollars a month. That's pretty good. So if you add all all that up so far it's fifty five dollars a month for all those streaming packages. Yes and there are a whole bunch of other streaming services cropping up there's ESPN plus food network plus Youtube Streaming Channel Peacock is getting launched by NBC and that will have the office and Battle Star Galactica and saved by the bell and cheers and thirty rock. I've even mincing ads for B. E. T. plus O'Grady's upcoming streaming service and they're boasting about being able to offer the entirety of Tyler. Perry media pack cattle does zipping catalog. This formidable it's all just so much like it's too many services it's all annoying expensive in confusing you don't know want brothers created friends or that. NBC You on the Office you. It comes very difficult to find the shows that you're looking for. They won't all be in one place anymore. So Jessica look at things that most of these services will not survive. They won't get enough subscribers. I also think that like as this stuff becomes more cluttered and confusing. I'll just use all the services less when it stops becoming easy to figure out. What watching her so Jessica thanks to survive? The streaming services will end up looking a lot like the old cable packages so the big streaming packages But with a twist. The crazy twist is like these. Bundles aren't just going to be other streaming sites bundling together. It's going to include all kinds of things including like physical hardware. Apple's GONNA use Apple. TV Plus it's new streaming service as kind of a bonus apparently to get people to buy you know the newest phone or or special computers or a TV Disney snia Portland with verizon. So if you get an unlimited verizon wireless plan you will get the Disney streaming service for free and you'll get a deal if you sign a three year contract contract. It's a lot three year contracts with no cable package. NFL phone contract and an annoying apple equipment upgrade all in one. Do you know what it feels like. Sam What does it feel likes. They sort of feels like consumers are always stuck in second gear. It's like it has been our day or month or Stacey When the rain starts to fall today's episode of the indicator was produced by Jared Marcel backcheck checked by Nadia Lewis? Our editor is Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is a production of N._p._R...

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

08:49 min | 1 year ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"N. P. R. Before we get started you mind if I get your name the way you'd like it and your title the way like it Micheal Creamer So non dairy creamer and my titles actually gates professor of develop into site is in the Department of Economics at Harvard and Nobel laureate I think you definitely have to put that on there I should think so he'll pry I mean you know that to Converse much the peak because when someone wins the Nobel Prize the whole world is going to acknowledge them as having contributed significantly to their field and in this case to humanity meaningful way. It's hard to think of how you even celebrate that actually found out our reporting at was diet coke awesome upgrade to the Diet Coke Survive and that ladies and gentlemen is how you celebrate winning a Nobel Prize you upgrade for it diet coke to irregular nothing so mind now Micheal Creamer just won the Nobel prize for his work in what's known is element economics along with his colleagues esther flow an advocate Banerjee the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said that the work of the three economists had quote dramatically proved our ability to fight poverty in practice visit indicated from planet money I'm Garcia and I'm Stacey Vanek Smith Today on the show we talk with Nobel laureate and regular coke drinker Micheal creamer about development economics what it is how it has helped change the way we think about economics and how it's even changed the world support for this podcast and the following message come from Zoom Zoom is used by millions to connect face to face through a single APP for videoconferencing phone calls group Chat Webinars and conference rooms visit zoom online to set up your free account today meet happy with Zoom so economics as a field it can have the reputation of being kind of abstract cerebral yes that's true if matty lots of CIGNA's you know complicated financial instruments ivory tower stuff Michael Creamer our newly minted Nobel laureate says he here's this from people all the time people have a view of economic says only about the stock market talks next. That's the question that you get when you sit makes people on airplanes there like is the stock market GonNa go up hopefully classic questions going to the I I also much place on that one now is a Nobel prize so you really want to know if he thinks. I got this doctor from a Nobel Prize winner and the response he might give to somebody who asks him for stomach that look development economics is something different branches mixed focuses on improving conditions in developing countries so Michael's research is looked at different ways to improve health care education agriculture social conditions all these different things in those developing countries Michael got started in this kind of economics when he was visiting a friend who was teaching in Kenya his friend was working for a nonprofit and had been put in charge of a bunch of local schools and they were trying to figure out how to best run these schools and where to invest their very limited resources we weren't sure uh what the best approach was they had several different ideas that they were interested in China and as we were talking I suggested that perhaps they could try some approaches in some schools and other approaches and other schools and they did that systematically they could learn what was what was working best and evaluate the impact of what they're doing much isn't Medical trial much as in a medical trial real world trials are used in many of the sciences but applying them in economics was groundbreaking in some of the most noted work of Michael Kramer and his colleagues they looked at where to best allocate resources impoverished schools in Kenya so for example would students benefit more from free textbooks or from free meals it turned out neither of those things actually made a huge impact for the students what did make a huge impact for the students another study uncovered a pretty unexpected answer to that hyphen free access to de worming medication. Hookworm whipper roundworm worms that actually used to be in the southern United States. take the medication to treat worms was quite cheap but it did still cost some money and there were a lot of parents who are still not getting it for their kids what made a huge difference was when kids were given free access to de worming medication Michael says the impact it had on their education was extraordinary we found that topic for much more like quitting school absence from school what by one quarter reflect when they had access to the medicine Michael and his colleagues followed the students for years all the way through school and into the workforce and they found that free access to de worming medication just kept paying off this was a while ago Alga young adults we see that they're actually earning more and consuming more and the girls are more likely to onto secondary school so huge impact relative to the really tiny costs lose medicines cost really pennies per does investing in De worming medication as it turned out had a much bigger impact on the educations professional lives of kids than textbooks or school meals and economic mixed figured that out the solution was not obvious it emerged after a series of rigorous experiments that were systematically trying different approaches until they found the most active efficient solution Michael and his colleagues presented that information to the Kenyan government you want to help kids and keep them in school put your money here in best in de worming medication and it will affect major change it will move the needle they were excited about it and they decided they wanted to launch an national program and then Indians state governments heard heard about it and then the national government of India introduced a similar program so now Aw Th Indian program is reaching more than one hundred million children every year and I think I remember reading that The program actually did a pain for itself through increased tax revenue because people did become more productive when they were healthier is that is that right that's exactly right recent follow up work we've looked at the economic impact of us now that students at the time of original de worming are now in the labor force and see the people are earning more Ah The free just do the calculations turns out of the extra tax revenue alone would have been more than enough to pay the cost of the program. It's estimated that the work of Michael Creamer in his fellow laureates this year has changed the lives of hundreds of millions of people around the world and Michael Says he's very glad to see that a more hands on kind of economics is being acknowledged invalidated in such an important way we're trying to do work that is very rigorous that is using the Ah Tours of of economics but that is also engaged with practical problems it's easy to see the problems of global poverty and to think that there are intractable that we can't make a difference but actually there's been huge progress there will be more progress as economics is applied to different problems in the developing world he thinks he can help find simple practical solutions that can actually make a big difference. Michael says he is incredibly excited to see economics being used this way and of course peace excited about winning the Nobel yeah maybe we'll even figure out how to celebrate it properly congratulations thank you so much and I think you should upgrade to regular coke for at least a week paid lip balm yeah there you go there now we're talking we're talking this episode of the indicator was produced by Lena. San's Gary edited by Paddy Hirsch Our intern is Nadia Lewis indicator is a production of NPR. Yeah.

Nobel Prize Micheal Creamer Michael Michael Creamer Department of Economics Nobel Royal Swedish Academy of Scien CIGNA Michael Kramer Kenya N. P. R. Banerjee Harvard professor Stacey Vanek Smith Garcia China San
"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

07:16 min | 2 years ago

"nadia lewis" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"For this episode of the indicator and the following message come from capital one Ken Dolan and his team built no the intelligent assistant who proactively alerts customers to fraud and other account activity we know people are just trying to live their lives and we try to empower E-e-e-e-no to only interrupt them from their life when absolutely necessary just like you would want a human assistant to do stay tuned after the episode to learn how can and his team at capital one programmed to proactively help customers manage their finances okay so mary this story of nuns who are trying to get their way on gun control. Where does it start. It starts with a group called the interfaith center on corporate responsibility. It is yeah. You showed me their website earlier mary. It's like this coalition of some three hundred groups and it includes members who are like just traditional financial institutions but it also has these faith-based groups and that's where the nuns come in yes mary. What is the story about? ICR that you wanNA tell us so back in two thousand twelve there was a mass mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown Connecticut and Twenty Six people died twenty of whom were children and when politicians failed to do really anything anything in response to that ICCPR felt like they had to do something about it so I spoke with Mr Judy Byron. She is the director of a regional group within ICCPR and I remember Sandy Hook and thinking. You know if we don't do something now as a country we never will. I mean these are little kids and we know that you you know there was a movement that we basically did nothing. Here's where the story takes a turn into our world finance. Normally investors who consider themselves socially responsible like these nuns would not by what are called sin stocks shares of companies that do bad stuff like make guns are cigarettes or whatever on the other hand these is not also realized that being shareholder of these companies means corporate management should have to listen to them because they're the owners yeah. I mean you would think that being a shareholder is at least supposed to give you access to the managers right. You can attend shareholder meetings and speak you can request a meeting and you might even get one so since relying on politicians nations didn't really work. Iccpr decided to turn to the markets because it markets at least have these rules and lovers that actually can work so in the fall of twenty sixteen. They started buying lying shares. They bought shares in two of the major gun makers. Sturm Ruger and American outdoor brands not a huge number of shares but some okay so these nuns the ICR Dr the coalition of Religious Groups they've started putting their money where their principles are so to speak and then one so the next summer this we're now into twenty seventeen. They privately wrote the company's trying to kind of engage them in conversation notice a little time goes by and in January of last year they quietly begin to file oh shareholder resolutions which are basically cordial corporate requests from shareholders for management to please consider something so the nuns wanted basically three things I for these gun companies simply to report on their efforts to make their product safer second for the gun companies also to prepare reports on the reputational and financial risks from from their products and third for them to monitor violent events like mass shootings but not much came of these resolutions okay and then came Parkland to park of course this was is the very tragic mass shooting from early last year that I think a lot of people remember that's right February fourteenth two thousand eighteen shooter killed seventeen students and faculty and injured seventeen nineteen more at Marjory stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland Florida and that catalyze this huge wave of outrage right over gun violence and gun control but once again a lot of if people were disappointed by the political response disappointed that no new laws were passed here sister judy again we just can't let the kids do the heavy lifting in our society we we really need to step up and be with them and also show leadership so the nuns and ICR decided to act more forcefully so I they joined other activists in criticizing the banks that lend money to the gun companies but second remember those shareholder resolutions that they'd quietly gently sent to the companies companies asking them to report on how they were making gun safer in the company's kind of blew him off this time. ICCPR went public with those resolutions and put them into a shareholder vote and the shareholder resolutions passed with huge support okay so I mean in that case. It kind of sounds like they kind of yeah. They did get their reports. in the reports the companies defend themselves by saying that the problem isn't the people who buy their products. It's criminals doing bad things but the truth is the reports themselves solve our kind of toothless. They don't really compel the companies to change anything that they actually do. They're just a sign that they've complied with what shareholders asked but it's something. ICR did show that they could get something from the gun companies. Yeah it sounds from the way you're describing that this is a kind of symbolic victory. I mean these reports as you described them are toothless but you still have a situation where this group of nuns and these other religious groups did compel companies to do something right and they compelled them to do something using the markets rather than other forms of of persuasion so what's happening now so for the nuns it seems like some of the momentum has dissipated this past. Tuesday the annual shareholder meeting for American outdoor brands. ICCO had another resolution up for a vote vote it was asking the company to adopt a human rights policy in line with the UN's guiding principles but that vote did fail so our UCR still add. They're hoping that the more more noise they make the more reputational pressure they put on the companies will have some impact on the shares on the company's trajectory and maybe someday that will lead to a bigger change but sister. Judy says they're in it for the long haul we started with the issue of apartheid in South Africa and you know that was in nineteen seventy one and finally it was in nineteen ninety four when there were free elections so this issue of gun violence. We hope it's not that long but you know we're not going to go away away because we really believe that they have a critical role in this in solving this very the story's interesting because I think that when a lot of folks folks try to influence the way a company does business they think of maybe boycotting the product and showing they're not interested. This was totally different. These nuns actually bought shares in the company. They actually decided that by owning a part of the company that that was the approach that they would take instead yeah and and it's kind of in concert with this broader movement. I think this becomes more effective in in that broader context of people saying now that corporations have a bigger responsibility. It's not just to generate profits. It's also responsibility to the society in which they operate Mary Tiles. Thanks so much. Thank you this episode. The indicator was produced by Darius roffe on it was edited by Paddy Hirsch in fact check by Nadia. Lewis indicator is a production of NPR.

ICCPR ICR Mr Judy Byron Ken Dolan fraud Parkland Marjory stoneman Douglas High Mary Tiles Sandy Hook Elementary School Sandy Hook coalition of Religious Groups Paddy Hirsch Sturm Ruger director Newtown Connecticut Darius roffe NPR UN Lewis ICCO