4 Episode results for "joey o'brien"

The Aiuppa Bribery Case

Gangland Wire

28:00 min | 1 year ago

The Aiuppa Bribery Case

"You are listening to gangland wire hosted by former kansas city police intelligence unit detective jerry jenkins good evening. All you wear capris out there tonight. We're going to talk about a bribery attempt of a chicago police officer. I recently had somebody one of our fans. Wire-tappers out author asked me if i'd ever been offered a series bribe and i have to say you know kansas city. We didn't really have that tradition of bribery. By the time i came on in nineteen seventy-one now the nineteen fifties they did a up into the sixties and when we got clarence kelly was a former f._b._i. Agent as our chief of police he really rooted out a lot of the commanders inside liden him. They retired when they realized that <hes> <hes> there's. There's a new sheriff in town jail. We say so that that smaller time bribery <hes> did not exist in the bigger time bribery. I don't know we kelly's one that formed intelligence unit were worked at most of the time and so he started off with two incorruptible guys <hes> rake indian ian in jimmy doolan and like a lot of us we were they were country guys. They were from one of us from stockton. The other now jimmy dylan actually was from up by where i come from. I'm in northwest missouri from a rural area and and it was kind of like. I don't know we didn't really have that tradition. We didn't grow up with that. Tradition of people bill being able to bribe policemen so we didn't take bribes. There were some people at dan we we had our sheriff. Criminals are policemen who were criminals all along. They'd get caught every once in a while but mainly. We didn't have now chicago new york. <hes> is a little different story. There's a long tradition. It's institutional corruption corruption that in a lot of little ways they always took clean joey say clean money as opposed to dirty money never take money from narcotics dealers or <hes> somebody like like my guys if they got outside the the realm of what they were supposed to do like hand heart in chicago william had heart was a longtime police <music> officer sergeant captain went all the way up to commander ran a burglary ring and was really connected closely with the outfit but when a rural rural but a suburban policeman was killed by a couple of mob associated <hes> armed robbers two guys that worked with harry aleman and his crew crew why he made tournament and they had to tell where the body they'd buried displacements body and they had to tell where the body was buried so it kinda like work both th- ways guys who were a little too close with with the outfit <hes> who knows some people as like las vegas. Some people say they liked it when the mob ran it and it was safer nicer nice earners more customer service. I don't know <hes> but <hes> everybody everything is what it is and that's the way it was in kansas city <hes> in my experience but in chicago's a little different experience so i wanna talk about when when joya was coming up and how he got caught up in a bribery attempt by one honest policemen who worked for a sheriff richard ogilvie ogilvy was <hes> was a sheriff that took over he actually hired richard kane and had ended up finding fired him shortly after but they had cooked a cook county sheriff for period of time back in the sixties fifties and sixties i believe and and he was basically he was not corrupt utter. Then you know you got to be a politician you gotta you gotta do certain things to get along but taylor did not allow his guys to to take <hes> the smaller time briberies who who knows i mean he he got run for office again and they take money <hes> for their campaign contributions. I mean that that still goes on up to the day in which allows you access but i'm gonna tell you one story that i thought was kind of interesting interesting about this one honest policemen he was a he was <hes> vice unit officer. He might have been sergeant then really say from this man was donald shaw twenty six six year old vice officer assigned to the cook county vice squad nine hundred and sixty five he and james larkin james hill anna in a james braddock and i guess that was the triple triple. Jimmy gang their triple. Jimmy crew the three gems three. James's probably what they were called at the office. They went into doyle's palm club which was sixty twenty-six west twenty sixth street posing as customers. The coppers heard sounds of slot machines being played played in the back the ended up arresting a sixty three year old woman for gambling and edward f doyle from cicero as the manager and shortly after the rest while they were still there a man named john carr walked in he allegedly at the time tried to offer a five hundred dollar bribe to forget the arrest shop just turns around and arrest junk car for his attempted bribery and later they had a county grand jury heard the case indicted that man for bribery this junk car would be identified by the sheriff's department department has a brother-in-law of joseph korngold who was a well known outfit gambling fixture in cicero his his real name was not car. It was caspar j. cleft peta. We had a guy here in kansas city. Some of the other members of families name was calm assad on he was pretty well. Known william asano colleague willi the rat and we used to call his son is willie comes on a junior he used to call him willie the mouse but they use the name comings and he used used in a lot of different business things and actually if you think about it a lot of prejudice against italians out of the turn of the century not up into the forties and fifties so i understand dan why they might want to anglicized their name a little bit from the italian that and when you were well-known mobster you also don't mind changing your name either. He was an associate of chuckie english. It was a west side mob gambling boss and lester crews who was an operator a floating crap game for the outfit officer shaw later on was approached got a phone call from jacob p dutt's it called him dutch which berg rider which i guess they call him debts from the duke are a german he was a lieutenant on the sheriff's department and and he called called up don shah and said hey. You know let's talk about this. I want you to meet somebody so they got together with the other members of the unit and somehow got a miniature radio transmitter with a receiver from the state police. He's weren't very it common in one thousand nine hundred eighty five. Let me tell you these. These kinds of devices were not common at all but anyhow they got the device. They wired him up. This was a cook county sheriff's office remember and they went to chicago. Police intelligence unit captain duffy and lieutenant berry who assigned a couple of detectives -tective allen jacobson and robert hedley to operate this recording device used to call him a kill kit by that time kate yale and think was the the actual the brand name of them and and it was it looked like a pager <hes> it was a pretty good size <hes> sending unit that they have to tape on him. You had to be real careful not to tape but directly to their skin because it got it got hot. You needed some cloth between the person's skin. Many million informant had to run to the bathroom and and strip that thing off 'cause somebody <hes> tape that kill to directly to their skin and then put enough clothes over that it and they're like maybe like bending over and it was pushing against him real hard <hes> they had to run and take it off. They could even get burnt. Some of their skin would get so bad so at the prearranged time don shaw <hes> walked into a real estate office. Burg brighter also had a off duty gig as a real estate salesman. He had his own company he will when he gets fired. In the the end he will <hes> <hes> go into the real estate business. This real estate office was on northwest highway. In palatine brighter introduces don shaw to a man e calls joy o'brien and those juryman walkabout a half a block away to a sandwich shop and drive in on illinois illinois route fifty three northwest highway. Some you guys live up. There knows nor suburb probably know where this is in that sandwich shop. I did made his offer. He'd offered two thousand dollars to don shaw to water down what he called. Water down your court testimony on the car bribery case in care so much about the the other gambling but what they did care about was bribery after the meeting shall went on home and burgh brighter came to his house about ten or fifteen minutes later called him out and had him sit in his car. Burg brighter went ahead and gave show he hadn't really given his his okay okay particularly but acted like he might be interested in he gave him five hundred dollars down payment on the two thousand dollar bribe in an in an article that mike burnett earn. It put up on his website chicago out that old and new articles. I downloaded this and copied it off. I want to tell you. I'm gonna read read to you. The exact conversation that <hes> these men had that day in that sandwich shop in burg brighter said don. I need a little help with case officers yet. That's what's up your that that bribery bust he made on that guy over and a few months ago yeah now. Some friends of mine are very concerned. Show is a good guy and we should help him out. Yeah has that. I take it easy. Take it easy. I'm not asking you to do anything wrong. Under perjure yourself just help him out a little help his lawyer find a loophole. He's fucking chasers. They did this shit all the time. You know that show says well. What's in it for me. You know the tapes rolling and then this is gonna. This is gonna hook in berg brighter. Later on my friend would be very nice to you. I promise you that yeah well. I don't know how this supposed to work. I don't want no trouble out of this. My friends sitting in the back room right now. Do you want talk to him. At talking can't hurt. I guess get up and walk in the other room walked in the back room. Don this our friend joey o'brien joy this officer don show nice to meet you. Officer shaw likewise. Just call me don join. Don understands what we need here. He just needs some more details. Joy o'brien or joey i o possess don. I can always use a good man. Little extra help l. Shah's as joey is that your real real name. Is it or is it o'brien long long quiet then he just comes back back as if he didn't say anything you just gotta give our lawyer some kind of loophole in the prosecution well. How could i do that. We'll start off. Tell let me what went down that night. After shaw said well my whole squad my whole squad resents. I had the joint and saw the slot machines and the crap game going on we announced ourselves and made all the players players lined up against the bar dislike normal while we were getting ideas from everybody. Your man car came out of the office and he got my face. He tried to pull me the away from the others and was making strong gestures with his hands trying to hand me money so i just popped him for bribery pretty simple open and shut case. He asked me ryan's retorts well. Maybe maybe when he handed you the money. You may have had time to ask him well. I don't know what's his money. Your hand is evidence that the gambling was he trying to give me evidence of these people that were gambling. Did anybody over here exactly the conversation you guys had i don't know that might make me look bad no branches well you know how about if you didn't really hear what he said because he talk so soft and you just grab the money thinking was evidence of gambling joss as ad that sounds better to me they go ahead and leave and and that's when when <hes> he meets up with berg brighter gives him the five hundred dollars well they take the tape and transcribe it and go back to the office of sheriff ogilvy takes over and they get warrants and grand jury indictments against burke brighter and isha for this attempted bribery sheriff ogilby will then start pulling in other sheriff's deputies who were they knew who were friends and cohorts <hes> burg brighter. There was david myers and donal n._a. Night donald deep rent who who had been in the sheriff central vice unit for quite some time and they had already been suspended for refusing to take lie detector test. I called them in ended up <hes> getting them fired after the u._k. Bribery tam on donald shaw they were actually had been assigned to protect shah shah had continued to try to sit up other means to you a little further and all of a sudden he turned cold on him and they knew that that the word was probably out and that's when they assigned these two guys to protect shaw these these are like assigned in the fox's to the chicken house turns out as as this is all going down why of course he's got all kinds of contacts doc inside the police department and he knew that they were going to get a grand jury indictment with him so he just had his lawyer telephone sheriff ogilvy and said that he would surrender the the paper stated at the time i hope appeared in a blue silk suit blue-grey straw hat and sunglasses and they put him in the back of a patio wagon with he's blue silk suit and took him to the milwaukee avenue station mug deepen brennan demon held him for overnight jack with the other law enforcement agencies to send these fingerprints if he had any other charges as just kind of a little you know we've got you buddy and we're fuck with a little bit eventually he was able to get out on bond the only at a five thousand dollar bond and the paid ten percent on that five hundred dollars in cash and which <hes> it was reported paid with two one hundred dollar bills in the rest and tony's days burg brighter will go ahead and resign from the force and actually during the same time he had already had his name and address found around as a contact person inside of a brothel that was up there on the north side. He'd been the chief of the vice squad for quite a while had told donncha trying to recruit him. He said hey don't worry about this. You know i've been on their payroll for longtime. I never had any trouble and have done pretty well. I've got a transcript of that tape recorded conversation between hookah and <hes> dutt's burke broader and donald shaw who was the undercover vice squad detective who had busted mister car in busting for attempted oppor offer a bride. He's introduced adduced by burke brighter in a balentine sandwich shop. Dhanjal sis joy has at your real name o'brien gupta. I said where'd you you get. The name. O'brien says well. It's a name i used to fight under shell. Do you know what you wanna. Do show says not exactly opus says would would you have any objection to help john car off the hook in court for consideration and if in doing so it wouldn't hurt your position as a police officer joe says i wouldn't mind at all but in hurt hurt myself as a cop and if i didn't have to perjure myself in court i hope says you won't hurt yourself and you don't have to be in court. Just give the lawyer loophole in your prosecution. I oprah asking for details the night of the arrest and how that went down then i open gave him away to go. He's excuse me. Do you think there's such a crime as playing a slot machine cha said well. There's a log instant. Oprah says oh laws are flexible. There may have been just like a big tree stan. The narrowness may deflects otherwise it breaks. Hoopla continues on us. Put it cold. This is your hometown. These are your people. Are you gonna let outta town. Guy like o'meara command wrapped around his finger like all these negroes in all their demonstrations. Is there an gold you. Is that any goal you to may may to our friends to our kids. It's the law it's not right but it's a law. He was talking about the new boss of the vice squad that <hes> sheriff ogilby had put in a and i guess they probably what he said. You know like all these negroes in their demonstrations. He probably had become unpopular because he'd been assigned in in some of the guys to go work. The the demonstrations is nineteen. Sixty five were first getting <hes> civil rights demonstrations. John replies well like i said it's law. I get paid to do it. I said alright alright understand fine. We understand each other. They're several ways to do things though take this man's man like o'meara. He thinks he's going to whip the world. He can't just go around hurting people like if you find annoying if you find a place open at ten minutes after four that'd be four in the morning and he's supposed to be closed at four a._m. And there twenty people in there he's going to close them up completely. He can't do that to people and get away with it. All all the time and you got to use some common sense you really do. You've got to use them reasoning. Saturation point calms your saturated. Your through our machines aren't taking money away from children their milk money or the money they go to school with every month. I will see that there is a c note or some other worldly goods in your mailbox. You'll be on the payroll pro shah replied. What do you want from me to be on the payroll. I hope says well i want from you is the information that they will not be kicking me with the point of the shoe but uh-huh mainly with the side of it. If you find out something or see something that i should know and you think i should know it. I'll give you a telephone number. You follow me shaw says well. The thing of it is. I would suddenly be out of a job. If i stopped making pinches you can do it. You could do it like that like you. Say in just kick you in the side. I do not the point. I guess oprah says you will never stop making pension you. If you haven't got an out and have to make a pinch you go on ahead. I paid for these pigeons burke brighter then jumps in their he'll give you some good ones maintenance. Some good pigeons in good bust. I gotta looks down looks back shot. He says well you follow me by pigeons. <hes> he also might have meant that he would hand somebody they wanted to rest. He just had them somebody the who would go ahead and take the bust shah says or what area are you in your replies well when you find out about may you'll see. I'm pretty nice guy. All all i'm interested in is gambling and the night spots and cicero. I'm not interested in the residential areas you could go anywhere outside the business district and you'll find nothing but a nice area burke brighter says shaw give you a little advice being a boss like i was out there justice. You mean advice gambling burke brighter. Was you know it was looted device for a long time. Brighter says yeah that's right. Do this on your own. This is between the three of us. Don't trust your partner. Nobody ah says will say the chicago. Police intelligence unit had a game under surveillance for awhile and then gave it to us and suddenly it wasn't there anymore they would get wise can get wise real quick. They'd no somebody blew the whistle. I hope ah says fine. The tables would be there. The game would be there but the money wouldn't be on the table. Do you follow me. I'll never embarrass you on netflix hurt. You and i can be nice to you. I can help if you have any problem. I could be real nice to you. I can decorate the mahogany a little bit. You know what i mean. See what i mean. I can help with the payments on the new car. I can see to it that you were taking care of every month. I can see that every month. There's a little bit of extra worldly league goods in this life for you just like myself if you walked into place and saw men there and your superior said pants me. I never met you. Go ahead and pence me. I go along with the show. Show says i kick you with the side of my shoe. I says now you're catching on or you with me now. She says i guess i said you know. I'm not involved abdin he prostitution at any narcotics. I don't take any dirty money. It's only gambling. It's okay if you want arrest any prostitutes any narcotics people any of those scumbags bag like that go ahead but that's not me anyhow. Actually he wasn't being real candidate. If they started making a bunch of prostitution arrests that was this connected <unk> eight probably would have tried to get him to quit because he did make money off of prostitution in cicero says you understand if i make money on a you make money. You have a chance to make a little money right now. Do you think that the guy with the four thousand or five thousand dollar job driving a new car with one hundred dollars suits you. I think this is all done with his salary to you. Gambling gambling is going to be here longer than we are. Show replies. I could go in this town tonight and round up one hundred gamblers embers burn brighter says s._e. This everywhere everybody's doing it. I upset you know why you are successful man why the marines <unk> our country is successful because we're gamblers every time there's trouble over there we go. We're gamblers. Were gamblers where americans that's a good one. We're americans so i said hey. Here's a phone number. If there's any gambling raids gimme a car and i want you to know that i can get the a transcript of any grand jury testimony that you give about my friend car so i just want you to find a loophole for the lawyer to step through that money. It might have been gambling evidence that he handed over to your. Maybe it was for the bribe. He didn't really say he was trying to bribe you. You understand cope each shot with that says nice joy who possess the pledgers all mine the rest is history they busted oba and and of course he got out of it. Burke brighter ends up leaving sheriff's office went went into business in business as a real estate person he ended up being a licensed private detective so that's that's the anatomy of a bribery attempt by by joy hooper as a really interesting story. I said i never was involved. In any of this or even worked on cases like this worked on some policemen <hes> <hes> goddamn dirty we <hes> videotaped a few of them stealing from a little crew stealing from boxcars but never anything anything like this at all we picked up on information about some guys that at least one guy that would <hes> would try to tip off some the mob bars if we had long long strip strip so block long of primarily mob operations that were strip clubs and <hes> had <hes> dancers dancers. That kind of thing is back in the seventies and we had a guy when a._t._f. Would go from bar to bar started one in and worked down the other and they aken pour out liquor and see if the liquor on the label is the same as the liquor that's inside the bottle because what these guys were done they would by real cheap booze and then refill the top shelf booze that and they'd like for booze that have been bought at a retail outlet because as you couldn't buy <hes> you can stock a bar ho a retail outlet from retail outlets and sometimes you get guys that get behind on their liquor bills and so they would go to <hes> the liquor store liquor store and buy a bunch of bottle with at a discount bottles at a discount and and use them and they were just looking for any violation any a._t._f. Was looking for any liquor law violations just to just a mess with people and have a chance to look around in their paperwork and see who was working there and that kind of thing more of an intelligence gathering other noperation. We had a downtown foot beat officer that they had an a._t._f. Agent that was sitting inside one the bars about three or four bars down the row <hes> from from where they started in in this guy figured out and he was going barred abortion a he was going barda bars and hey a._t._f. Agents are coming a._t._f. Agent cirque. I mean i don't know whatever happened. I'm dan i notice he did go ahead and retire they probably called him in and pick these buffalo bent and gave him some time off and and <hes> because it was is it like an institutional thing and he was a he he had lost his way somehow he thought that he was part of this little neighborhood an instrumental part of this little neighborhood and that was part of his duties to was to protect his people in this little neighborhood so if you have a friend who has a problem with drugs or alcohol make your first call first call call eight one six three six one fifty nine hundred or go to their website w._w._w. Dot i call casey dot o._r._g. A little little begging now if <hes> to support the podcast if you haven't been mo- app that's v. as in victor e n m oh it's real easy way to to transfer a buck or two to somebody <hes> like i've said before my my son and his daughters use it if he wants to give them five bucks or ten bucks while he can just transfer it to him and then they can. I don't know how they use it. I'm figured it all out. I know i use it goes into my bank account so if you want to buy me a cup of coffee or shot and a beer or something like that like <hes> several other people. We'll have a mark ryan particularly. I really appreciate what you've done. Marking a couple of other guys whose name i can't remember now. <hes> you know to to hit me up on that are go to my website. You can make a donation. He make <hes> twenty five dollars donation not send you a copy of my movie or just by movie or just you can rent for a dollar ninety nine. I get a little piece of that from amazon or there's links on my website. <hes> kansas city mob rap at the apple store the <hes> i tune store. You're a little piece of action off that you know it costs money to keep this website going and and the blueberry podcasting hosting company. I don't really try to get anything for my time. I would like to get my out of pocket and paid back so far up pretty much have got my out of pocket paid back you. You can't beat that and it's a fun turns out. It's a fun hobby. I'll never make money at it but it is fun. I do like town these bob stories and i know there's a lot of people like hearing them so good evening folks using provided by our good friend and superfan from portland oregon casey mcbride. Thanks casey <music>.

bribery donald shaw officer chicago burg brighter cicero john carr kansas city don shah kansas joey o'brien shah shah don don shaw o'brien gupta cook county burke clarence kelly richard ogilvie ogilvy
Part 2: Nick Tammaro, Pete Fornatele, Jonathan Kinchen

Thoroughbred Racing Radio Network

1:04:56 hr | 11 months ago

Part 2: Nick Tammaro, Pete Fornatele, Jonathan Kinchen

"DOC YOU'RE Good Morning Steve How are you great levers Lee trying to write notes in the cars is you were talking and now I actually have them ready I got a pen in you're just as dangerous in the playing remote at Santa Anita and so it's a good reason to be home and playing from afar oh you just bring the news on Mazal Tov to you and your wife each grandmother out steak I love it and of course that takes all the sting out of the Astros the seven game anything I ever I've ever watched I I had no interest you you almost never see series turn that many different directions in a in it's really really crazy shame more people watch it really was very entertaining series and even though the one thousand nine hundred eighty five cardinals royals that they play at first base that ended up not hurting the eventual thing because having lived in Kansas City and I was a season ticket holder that year it parallel of course what happened in game six and luckily hopefully that won't be part of the conversation now addition at home and Wednesday night felt like while they had all of those opportunities early online eight and he struck out look bad striking out and Brantley grounded out that was their real opportunity. That's NEAT spirited call. Aj hinch Dave Roberts Yeah you can yeah let's turn to the task raised should be somewhat favourite controlled I think four wheel drive is going to be pretty tough one of the euro's that you see at least in the running lines maybe having the most appeal is so that that's where I'm starting to practice she that's where I landed I didn't have anything in a row and you miss the great in this race it's over so that was my big concern the sense and it's funny that you mention alligator alley because for me does that get gives way to the juvenile turf which I thought was really outstanding race I think that the winner probably is even though he didn't he didn't exactly make the with anticipation looked good is a very bold outside moves that our country was asked to make before ultimately coming up a little bit short as I said the main main principles here those big three look like the winter put more than likely come like the most impressive prep winter was British radio and I thought that she stands to benefit most from ace sprinting stretching out to eight and a half long and facing what might not be great but I wouldn't really be beaten by her I'm not really looking forward to betting her my only longshot possibility like a pacemaker quicken up to me I like it and and KP dreaming I thought Juvenile Filly Surf was was pretty fascinating as well I know the European that means the ground and she will obviously get that to run over the the domestic contingent interesting local local horse so to speak of of them and probably offer kind of meeting type forces sharing Beck and I outstanding and and the Juvenile v Lost a little bit of luster maxine coming out Out and having watched about baffert horses work often enough you feel like that's usually the strength of their drill you can draw but this is a horse with plenty of early speed and if Iran we use the gate with with his mind on business because when you start to pick apart every race he's run he's been really really good this isn't the Derby this is the Breeders Cup juvenile in in November in the Derby moving forward looks like he's going to move on today or it is today took service surface as much as possible we're hearing a million different things about oh it's tiring favoring go into seven eighths the to juvenile California Golden State raises who Saturday action affiliate bear sprint is a race I think start from a couple of really quality speed horses immediately outside and come dancing a la- quite from way far back with a with a very strong pace that up last time I'm just making that happening again eight make one run I think those are two that I'd love to try and squeeze into the TRIFECTA and even if you well if the world was listening to attend to one series I think we'll see what the board does but I really heard of a big mackenzie losing the photo in the big Cap Doc rose doesn't win we still have no three year old that's ever won this race and so everybody along all goes away it's crazy how funny this is the Andy Serwer discussion it even with shamrock rose having won three year olds have not done well in this race when your horses doesn't really have that much speech has a ton of speed I think our concern of course she's GonNa Human then confess has handful move forward Ed sized with the marrow yesterday going through the races and identifying them talked about taking stands and races that look white open especially in chirps sprints I I love Eddie Haskell little bit dirty up I can't imagine he's going to be much more than five to one or so because the money's just going he's got the right kind of jockey and I think will really be able to be positioned just about anywhere simply because he's going to be the insect speed and he's much faster to the punch then checking Shabazz this this I've watched spotify turf races to try and get acclimated to these days lovely and it's funny because going back to was on not long after Glatt was in a unique position because he had the we were talking that was really the first five furlong beneficiary of of the decision the guy that really deserves as much limelight scenario to Omaha beach the participants in the dirt mile because we I'm going to respect or who is arguably the most masterful horsemen in my lifetime and I yeah and I think that while the the forbidden fruit of larger purses or or I've got enough of an air to take a stance against him a five to two or three a one shot I think in terms quote run and and of course we'll see by that point really how the the track is playing and I think sponge think we push comes to shove Omaha beach is clearly horse to beat him turning to scratch Thais out of the filly and Mare turf and declared that there's nothing wrong with Thais and this reminds me of last year when yeah I wonder if the conversation included him letting doctorate Arthur no this really isn't she didn't get out of the gate never got better than fifth in the going and so he charlie Weis being in these roast races actually Mister Charlie a much quicker horse early so I don't I don't really think it's it should be a huge problem for sister Charlie you know I that she's kind of an up and coming horse but she's really making a huge step up class why that opportunities I could see myself using your Edessa i Joe Joey O'Brien very sharp when it comes to and that's a question to as we get to the sprint nick how're you how are you budgeting communities and give give everybody treatment on that I think that this late pick five changed budget player and you're talking about pick five I'm talking about basically anybody that's GONNA F- between fifty and two tolley in this sprint I'm playing this I think there's one chaos opportunity a lot of people that are going to say hey matola faster than these sources early he's going to be able to take all the heat that's worse than being able to to overcome that and I think he's got to get the biggest challenge he's ever faced better horseman whitmore would Moore's hats opportunities but I think this is a time with him having gotten that great oh I think I'll die I will use mentally maybe a little bit more as a backup also use engage third to Steve Asmussen off of Chad Brown so it's a race where I'll be relatively deep opinion of of midnight be Su obviously bricks and mortar gives oh the distaff perhaps and obviously the turf are the two a button in this spot and make sure that you get to those other places if you have a a mid range type of budget and again like you said if you have an opinion group one races that he's run on on somewhat firm type of footing the horse that I'm most interested intercourse at longchamp in the middle of two thousand eighteen he barely missing a group wanted a mile so he's definitely what is your speed in here and what what Eurico Rosa Desilva does with L. Tormentor May but she looks to be maybe almost in control of this race pace wise because gasoline can sort out it was a little wonky down the stretch of the Woodbine Mile I thought that he was probably a little too far back country eight or ten horses really stacked on top of each other and the one who gets the best triple end up winning it sort of a a a bunch of horses moving a little I think it's a big dice roll more or less you're both days and neck basically said what a what a serious I'd like it nick the late three distaff turf classic and and I I'm not gonNA rant about why she's beatable or why you should spend a whole lot of competition against older fillies last time probably was not on the best part of the race track I it's a little bit of concern on my part getting empress idea we'll get away from this field and I'll tell you talked about forwardly poorly placed sources have done well if you believe that there's any of that going on upgrades act that it's time to go right out of the gate and and really if she can beat mostly cow and paradise with get the right setup and I think that she'll be good position I love the everything Don Dailey double from Dunbar road and Getty empress into Anthony Van Dyke and I'm going to take wants Anthony Van dyck is a very atypically campaign date no Bryant Breeders Cup worse in that they four weeks and it just seems like hey we're loading the plane plop him or her on there too tim pretty much better than anybody else between him and Old Persian bricks and mortar is gonna Fatema Chew Best doing it my the reason why I still want to include them as Charlie applebee's been unbelievable in terms lead to set up to go here was very astutely done as far as the classic goes I Mackenzie basically defensively my sheet is that when you look back at this race afterwards another I'll take Kim attend to one over just about anybody else at a shorter price I think the you know roselawn sources so that that's where I ended up I'm not going to be surprised if the Kennedy wins I think Rosario is Asian I'll take a swing against that especially with the horse is going to be two to one or so I pretty respite approach to so we're we're simpatico neck for the baby you get the college money put away by vice gave me an all day there you go neck Tamra everybody end Tam for the Damn Nick thanks thank you good luck that's yep we got the yeah there you go warm warm the third one we'll get Jonathan on the phone that's what we'll do because Jay time he wake up this morning was about seven forty five am so we'll we'll see I haven't call Jonathan now I'm giving her the the information and up and triple crown races derby particularly we're we're right in front in fact I Balance Ballasts type Thurbers yeah and Jonathan of US weekend he could is a a a lifelong astros fan and he had the choice of whether to yes because there was some argument the other night watching the game what Mac he bet at various points along the way the goal being to cover the cost of this I that's what I that's what I that was the number I had done at hurt so those got to pay you almost you you looked about one five shop to to to get away with that batting he played those games at minute maid and there was lots of juice for those small casinos that took the action they crazy old in the wall casinos Mississippi I know he was he was doing some defend has reached out to you for the touch your bankroll is you above are left the our early for that kind of Iraqi the one really gonNA be upset because we're advertising competitive betty I think they're lost you got Yeti Look I love it I love it are you not except and they use the Mike how about that say hello the only one that's what it is too many people out of the building but I wanted I the class one of my classes at University of Arizona the subject do and what kind of information they're looking for and maybe some places to go in the future and you know what we can do now in the modern age to make things better for the giving the students a little some real life realized often it's great you know you could tell it to express their I know that we all appreciate the opportunity what a great idea that was for you for these young minds pillars of the stool of racing the horse player it was it was an absolute pleasure and I understand this is going to meet up today now that most of the work is done right now most the action and and where they've landed and J K first of all in terms I mean you know it's typical of me that I you know and there's a favorite I I got how I can make some money if that fast for shows up I there's GonNa be a big inside those favorites Rexona border I'm ready again there's we'll see fair Pete your overall impression going in to read it to me especially in terms of star power seen people complaining a bit about as of of championship level racing and in terms of wagering there's a couple of places that I'm I was already and he out here at the breakfast marquee in the mornings getting to clap I'm I can't Omaha Beach I mean there's so many great stories and there's reasonable takeout pick fives. I thought that was a great move by Breeders Cup and on a day like this some of my main wagering ideas and sort of my overarching theme for you excellent I wanted to get that in this wraps up and pick five and starts to five so I'm only gonNA use to roughly ward so that horse obviously is is is the the discounts the only two I'm gonNA use Nick luck made really good cases for alligator alley like in our in fifteen feet away from us any seem to break from the not a ton of meat left on the phone for me in that race after J. K. went but I will talk a little bit sharp but this is one that I need to have at least in second four-wheel-drive in Kamari do look very very tough and I defer to Nick Luck on alligator alley and knowledge so horses running straight straight straight straight as the alley to bet on I think I want a horse that gives but failing that when I look at a one like Daiei in the juvenile earlier more of an oaks philly already you can sort of see the Stamina Howe H. E. produces her run meeting before they know they're not gonNa make the not GonNa make a too many I mean really find and there's a lot of interesting horses that you could feather in Nita and and so obviously we'll need to get a little bit Lucky Ryan Moore's done that I wish I liked some of the American horses a little bit better but the two that I do like the most I think that he's sitting on a nice race and I'm going to give our country another shot as well I think our country I think for whatever reason sometimes the relationship

Nick Luck Dave Roberts cardinals Mazal Tov Steve Santa Anita Astros Lee Brantley Kansas City Kamari Daiei Ryan Moore philly Nita Howe H. E. J. K. three year fifteen feet five furlong
Scouting the UDFAs, Hancock's ceiling, Slot logic schemes

Baseball Things

49:11 min | 3 months ago

Scouting the UDFAs, Hancock's ceiling, Slot logic schemes

"Yes it's baseball. That's out to center field. Down the. Line? Here's Jason a Churchill. I have to tell you i. have to tell this has been the most exhausting four plus days since the draft ended last. Thursday despite the fact. The draft itself was thirty five rounds and more than a thousand players smaller than usual, because finding reliable information on post draft free agents takes more time because I wasn't talking about those players at all if they weren't at least a top two hundred prospects, and a lot of them are not a lot of college seniors, which is why were convening here on Tuesday rather than Sunday or Monday? Monday is just a little more time to get info. On the players. The mariners have been signing since the draft ended a baseball things Jayson Churchill, the draft speaking of his coming gone, but your Seattle Mariners continue to add those undrafted free agents and it last check. I believe they're up to four someone to go over all of those four with scouting notes that I was able to. To kind of SCROUNGE UP I won't even call it last-second. It literally took me four days to get information. On the first two players. That they signed to get information that was worth. Going to the MIC with so to speak we're also gonNA talk about resetting the farm system, a little bit You'll see when I mean. the drafts impact impact on future roles Emerson handcocks ceiling. We have a question that falls into that particular category. How about some slot logic like why? Go this question? When sent him, why go under slot at forty-three in verse lot at sixty, four instead of just picking the player at sixty four at forty three, so you can know that he's available. So, we'll talk about that. A little bit and also summer league impact on the draft. You've heard a lot about the Cape Cod League in the strath, probably more than. More than usual, and there are two reasons for that and I'll talk about that in a little bit all of the above by the way it comes from your great questions. It's episodes like this that allow me to sit back in my lazy boy, and just talk about baseball because you've done all the work for me. This is the kind of podcast I like. Let's start with those undrafted free agents so far it is four players. It's just in Levy. Tied Yuval Match Chef Ler in Brett. Rodriguez all college players. I'll call it. Seniors Let's start with Wavy gravy played on the left side of the diamond for the cardinals for three years, including shortstop projects best at third base, which is a little bit of a cop out, but I do believe he ends up playing more third base than shortstop at least if he gets to the big leagues, but has some athleticism could be plus at third base, including an above average, two plus throwing arm. He's at least interesting at the plate. Numbers are not gonNA. Wow you his good ability to make a lot of contact Shrek out just. Thirty five times in a full season a year ago in the sixty seven appearances, he had in the shortened twenty twenty season. I believe just four times. So a lot of the free agents clubs are signing after the fifth round. Levi's swing needs some work, and that's generally were clubs will see the upside here. Hey, he's got some bats beedon. Lady does at least average bat speed, but he hasn't produced the power. You'd want especially from somebody who's probably have to believe there. Multiple positions as utility player, or some of that ends up as a corner likely in his one scout mentioned there is some stiffness in his arm and some limited vertical zone coverage, but those are things. Things that can be worked on six, one, two, hundred and five pounds. He's from Kenosha Wisconsin in plate for the same club as Kalmyk before getting to Louisville so Justin left side. Guy May be a multibazillionaire guy. Some athleticism I'd say average to slightly above average speed, maybe even a little bit better than that under way I'm not gonNA steal on the basis of an interesting player and interesting athlete. Where if you make the the right swing adjustments? Maybe there's average or better power there because the bad speed is pretty legitimate. Tied Yuval is an undersized catcher from from Vanderbilt. Five ten hundred ninety five pounds mix a lot of contact with a line drive oriented swing knows the strike zone well. That's probably his best attribute. He's a fringe average glove with good receiving blocking skills, average arm strength. There's not much power in the bat. He doesn't create a lot of leverage in generally just looking for the barrel, which is okay if you're a catcher playing in a place like vanderbilt with a lineup's going to be stacked, anyway gets rave reviews for his baseball, Iq and leadership. That's tidy vall, the Vanderbilt Catcher to be honest with you default little bit difficult to project that to the big leagues. But you get some catching depth, and you never know you know. As soon as you want to say. This guy flat out cannot be something when he turns out to be something and makes you look like an ass so? As, I like to say non zero chance, but definitely not a high chance that duval ends up in the big leagues. Brett Rodriguez is a middle infielder from WOFFORD. Above average presents drank enough bats to eventually produce enough pop to profile as a bench option swing needs to be shortened up a bit, and he has quite a bit of frontside league. He opens up the hips. and gets that front foot out sometimes a little too early they need. Need to close that and fix that if he's the battle versus pitching on a consistent basis, but there are some physical tools there that could give Rodriguez. A chance at some pro success played a lot of shortstop in college. Likely fits best at second maybe third there might be some outfield in his future as well as decent athleticism, six feet, two hundred pounds, solid average arm, goodfeet, suggesting some kind of utility role again may be in his future. The fourth and probably the best free agent signing by the mariners at least those far. Is Auburn Catcher Matt, Shuffler, who played at Lake Washington High School right here in Kirkland just east of Seattle and happened to know a little bit to coach Lake Washington and I was able to get him to chime in a little bit, so I'll share his thoughts in a minute. Here's what I got from. Scouts very sound fundamentally behind the plate blocks, well received receives well understand. The position well has the frame at six. Six tune about one hundred ninety five pounds could add some bulk and project much better physically at that position, then maybe he does currently, but he held up pretty well in school at Auburn, his experience in the SEC and having caught several big leagues aren't bigly. Arms at Auburn, including Tanner Burns is certainly a feather in his cap and his His arm is above average and couldn't A-plus with some pro instruction. He's abundantly athletic for a backstop prompting one area scout to to ask me. Hey, have you seen him? Play another position and I hadn't and today I found out why I never did. It's because he didn't in highschool. That Lake Washington teams. He was on were so good and so loaded, and he was so good behind the plate. It just didn't make any sense for him to do so. with the Bat covers the plate well knows who he is as a hitter, but the bats beat his average. That's a positive thing here. That could be more power to come in with a couple of tweaks here and there there's the the strength and the hands, and the wrists, and certainly leverage that he could create where we see average or better power out of that when you look at the athlete in the swing in the the potential athleticism in the swing. We could see a contacted or turn into a double center. That has a little bit of Homerun. Poppy didn't really show that in college but he does make good consistent contact knows the strike zone well with potentially more power to come. He's really really interesting. Many believe Shuffler was the best senior Catcher in college baseball this year. So in. There's not a lot of argument with that. Usually, if if you're really good, you come out as a junior. You know or or a sophomore eligible like the like the Austin Wells and the Dylan dealers of the World Patrick Bailey in this year's draft. You don't get to your senior year, but Shuffler is having a really really good senior year at the plate, so it definitely made sense for him to come back, and despite the fact, that was a shorter season that helps show some things, those sixty or seventy plate appearances. He got in twenty twenty absolutely helped him His athleticism suggests two things to me. One that there's more in the tank to his entire game, and it just takes a little extra time for catchers to unlock that but it was pounding the baseball this spring when the season ended, and last year showed signs of the hit tool yet to sixty with a three forty three forty two obt excuse me in sixty one games Maybe the best quote I. I got from a scout was an area guy telling me quote? He plays a very unselfish brand of all, which is usually hard to see, but not with him. He's a kid. You can easily win the college world series with there's a lot of wiry strength to come I would have tried to draft him in the fifth. I had a fifth round grade on him. So you can at least one area scout here that that says yeah, this is a guy you kinda. Want your system even if you're not hundred centuries of big leaguer. because of the experience. He hasn't because there is some upside here. I mentioned lake. Washington head coach at a lot of good things to say about him. I was able to get actually coach. Derek Bingham at Lake Washington school. Thank you actually reached out to me to see what I heard. about Shuffler and I was still in the middle I was down. You been long four days. Trying to gather information and got back to him today, and he was willing to offer some some thoughts on Shuffler as a player leader and a worker, saying quote mad is a special player and even better young man. He has worked extremely hard to get to this point and I have no doubt will continue working hard to achieve his ultimate goal as a player, he is very gifted by the plate, well above average athleticism for a catcher plus speed and agility for the physician leadership skills off the charts, great receiver that can command a staff would be able to play multiple positions. Positions if asked based on his athleticism, good hitter can drive the ball gap, the gap and provide speed from the catcher position on the basepaths. He is extremely motivated and driven with a singular focus to achieve success at the highest level whatever ceiling as a player I have no doubt in my mind, he will achieve that he has already made our program and city extremely proud. The kings in the city of Kirkman have his back exclamation point I can't wait to see where the next step in his journey takes him. That's from Lake Washington head coach Derek Bingham. Who Coached Match Shuffler? In High, school just done not well, not that long four years ago, some pretty good stuff later from from being a special thanks to coach, being for for taking the time to help understand what match Shuffler is, is all about does. Does that sound like a kid well worth the twenty thousand dollars and then some. Like I I. Realize Twenty dollars nothing in in this situation, but this is this is a prime reason why major league baseball's garbage changes to this year's draft are an utter travesty. This is a kid. That's worth a couple hundred thousand dollars. Without question, and if he gets drafted and round five or gets drafting around seven, or he gets drafting around nine. I got a lot of fifth to tenth round. estimations on Shuffler This is a guy that's worth. You know. He's worth six digits. Twenty thousand dollars is an insult to what this kid brings to the table, even if he never makes it to the big leagues. The work he can do with your pitching prospects. The George Kirby's of the world. The Logan Gilbert's of the world even. Certainly Emerson Hancock, that's the level of arm. He saw an faced as a hitter and caught as a catcher. At Auburn in the SEC. Mostly over the last two plus years. So, yeah, another reason to just throw the word trash at with Major League baseball did to this year's draft, but certainly welcome to the Seattle Mariners. match Schefter. In terms of prospect, ranking Shuffler is going to rank in my top twenty, five likely as the club's number, two catching prospect behind cal Raleigh, and at least slightly ahead of Carter bins. So the clubs strengthened the depth at catcher with shetler without using draft on. So there there are the the free agents the mariners of signed since the end of the draft and I imagine they're going to continue to add to those, but It's tough to beat Shuffler. Who really can catch and certainly has some upside with his athleticism in at the plate and really interesting to see what the mayor's can do with them? Over the next couple of years. ALL RIGHT Let's get to your questions, which helps us cover a wide variety of and I don't. KINDA SORTA hot button topics your start off with Andrew. who asked this last week, but skipped over it on the draft episodes, so I could stay focused on the draft Andrew Asks. Were there any surprises among the minor league cuts? The mariners made a couple of weeks back. We can have back. Actually No we actually see thirty plus cuts, generally in February and March anyway, and for the most part that's all this was, and sometimes the cuts are purely baseball related. Sometimes it's depth but those reasons ranged from a lack of projectable big-league skills Black of progress. To work ethic to a numbers game at a position group, and sometimes they're off field issues that also get in the way, sometimes, not even the players fault, I think the most interesting to prospects that were let go are or when Peter. Nila, you've heard me talk about him. From time to time on the PODCAST WHO has experienced catching, but actually runs pretty well. At least you know in line could end up. Up In outfielder, first base tight, because he was playing a little bit of first base outfield in the Dominican Summer League, and there are a lot of advanced plate skills and physical tools here, but you know still project in an interesting bat based on tools and production, both but not surprised. He was among those Let go, and maybe there was something away from baseball. Maybe it was a depth thing. Maybe it was. A again. If you'RE GONNA make some cuts because you're making room for the new players that came in from last year's draft that didn't get activated and remember. Last year's draft was forty rounds. And, not all of them were activated in playing. Last year. Some of them will really get going this year. Joey O'Brien was a two way player in college but his injury certainly played a role here. He was another interesting talent that was amongst those cuts. Another of some note, Louis Villa's four hundred eighty five pound outfielder. Lots of physical tools there but lacked production in there may be a work at the gives you there I don't know but those three stuck out the most me, but again this happens every year. They're always a few interesting talents that get let go for one reason to the other. We don't know details on it. But. It's rarely a player Eli. WHOA really I. Mean like if they would have cut. I don't know cargo bins would have been lying. Why why would you do that? It doesn't make any sense So again interesting talents, a couple of them, sure generally nothing to to to worry about be concerned about, and some of them would have been released in March, and a few others in June or July to make room for this year's draft players that sign and get sent out in July so if you add all that up, it's usually thirtyish, in March, and you're gonNA. Do another ten to fifteen in May June July anyway to make room for some of the drafted players that ultimately getting sent out. This is pretty normal really. Really really close to it so there you go thanks Andrew. Be saved one of the things to note on this. Though the mirrors farm, the floor has been raised every step of the way under Jerry Dipoto despite the draft, being somewhat of a missed opportunity for Major League baseball as a whole, and certainly for the mirrors as a whole at least in my opinion i. don't think I'm alone there. considering their approach on day two. They certainly raise the floor again last week with six and five rounds. Certainly did that, so they basically just kind of lopped off the end. And that happens every year. thank you again. Andrew! Appreciate it. Dan VN's host of the Dan Cave podcast. By the way, which is a really fun listen ask seahawks forever on twitter Dan Asks Hey Jason with the selection of handcock now added to an impressive stable of starting pitchers in the Mirror System Gilbert. Kirby Campbell Williamson Thin Sheffield et Cetera in addition to UC Kukuchi Mark Open Zala, and now seems like Justin. Done is destined to be on the Edmund Yeahs plan. Do you now anticipating being moved to the bullpen as soon as twenty twenty one? while moving don is plausible certainly wouldn't expect it. In Twenty Twenty one unless we learn information that strongly suggest the timing of that like as we sit here right now. We haven't seen him pigeon twenty twenty. We haven't seen these guys pitch in two thousand twenty, and so we don't know whether there's development or lack of development and he really hasn't had the opportunity to do that, so we know he was going to get the chance to start in twenty twenty. Twenty if he doesn't the pitch or pitch much I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense to go ahead and change that projection certainly not at the start of twenty twenty one. We may get most of the way through a twenty twenty one season and he didn't show the progress. They wanted to see for the most part in the minors. And then we see that I guess that's possible But, he has the kind of lesson that suggests that changes he needs to make can be done pitch development delivery I'm imagining stays a starter until it's pretty clear. He's not going to help Seattle. They're soon enough. And? That's what they did with. Edmund es done is further along as a starter. He was a year ago at this point then. Edwin D as ever got. Has, a better flat fastball, slider, Combo and a better delivery. ultimately chances are done ends up. I average reliever and it. was but to not give him. A full shot would be a mistake in since Seattle isn't winning until at least twenty twenty two and now maybe we have to push that back a year because the twenty twenty season at least at this point is at least mostly a law season. They still have some time to figure that out. There's no rush. It's not like thin. And Williamson and and Campbell are going to be in the Big Leagues in Twenty Twenty. Twenty, twenty one, so they're not really rushed to do it and now Dan. You weren't discussing Sheffield here. Because some asked this question, there's a lot of talk about Sheffield's gotta go to the bullpen. I will include him in the rest of this conversation Justice Sheffield is a different story because he's passed all the minor league tests and we'll get a big league test. You know the next year plus before the club has considered change. He's just as athletic as done. Maybe more his lower half and has a third pitch. He just needs to command the fastball better and get to council where he can use his best pitch a slider, and ultimately the change up more in. It's always easier to say guys better in the bullpen, because for so that's true including established major league starters. Are you telling me that Masimba? bumgarner wouldn't be amazing in the bullpen. Those numbers would be unbelievable. He Be Andrew Miller. How good would Patrick Corbin being? The bullpen lots out and we saw some of that in October, but when the answer to the following question becomes clear the mariners. They'll make the move and that question is. Where is just an done most valuable for us? Not Better Most Valuable, and they won't ask themselves that question for at least a year. Maybe two on Sheffield and we're still probably talking. I don't know fifteen twenty starts minimum at the minor league level for Justin done. And maybe even starts at the big league level depending on those minor-league starts. Go I. think that's what we were going to see in twenty twenty in a regular year. You know the majority of the season in the minors done. If things look good enough, he'd get some time at the end of the year to make five to ten starts. But it's also worth noting here that that the same, that's true for done and to a lesser extent, Sheffield is also true for Sam Carlsen Brandon, Williamson and Isaiah Campbell. Good enough. Chance there relievers not bank on a starting role for them and start making decisions based on what you have coming with those players. Are believe the confidence. At least for me is significantly higher when we're talking about Logan Gilbert Emerson, Hancock and George, Kirby, the club's stopped three pitching prospects. Those are all starters who barring injury will start significantly in the majors with at least some regularity. Thanks Dan Balls. Well with you hope the job is going well. Our state in our county start reopening. businesses that are so important. All of us getting back to work Yeah, we could see justice done kind of pulling Ed Wendy as I. Don't think that decision needs to be made any time soon, but if I were wait, if are making a wager at this point, I would bet that ultimately up in the Pan I don't know if that comes before he makes significant. A significant number of starts in twenty twenty slash twenty, twenty, one as a starter for the mayor's. Because again. They have the time to do that. I, mean the earliest. They're going to actually claim that they have a chance is twenty twenty two and we're probably actually looking at twenty twenty three now. Unfortunately. are moving on here. Dj Van Court. Checks in with a question on the first round. Pick talk a lot about Hancock, but this is an interesting one hancock versus Felix as prospects floor ceiling. Can Hancock good as Felix was in his prime if his development goes as planned. let's with the floor I It's it's actually difficult to match these two into kind of compare these two because Felix. When I saw Felix, it just turned seventeen like a couple of months earlier and was down in short seasonable. Emerson Hancock is twenty one years old pitched in college in the SEC so it's really difficult to To compare the two, and because we won't see Hancock pitch this year, we only his college performances in scanner reports to us, but catching up with Felix as a prospect isn't happening for any of the mirrors current pitching prospects Felix. Hernandez was nineteen mowing down PCL batters and made his debut at the big league level later that same summer. He was nineteen. And when he peaked in at the big league level, he was among the top three arms in baseball. In many thought for at least a two or three period was the best. Right. There were Clayton Kershaw. That's a lot to ask. So the safe bet and I put quotes around safe and here's why put quotes around safe. This isn't the projection on him. Necessarily, it's the safe bet. The safe bet on Hancock is. He's a really good number. Three starter with a very good chance to be a to an outside chance to be a one a slightly better chance to be a one then Gilbert. ADD coming out of the draft. Now, there's always this caveat. Thinking the aces in the game today and I mean the aces not number ones because every team has a number one starter. The mayor is number one starts Marco Gonzales. That's not a guy. You want Tony regular basis of Justin Verlander, but he's their guy so I separate aces from number, one stars, and I look around the League in at any given time there anywhere from eight to twelve aces in baseball. There are even fewer that are aces on a regular basis. They don't just have one or two years. That's pretty much what they are. Max Scherzer Justin verlander Stephen Strasburg. And now Garrett Cole But Shares her coal Verlinden Strasbourg Chris Sale Jacob degrom. Those of the six that jumped out off the top of my head now think of the thoughts on those players when they were drafted and keep in mind that they were drafted in a time. When scrutiny wasn't nearly as high because data. Was Not a part of it for any of them. We weren't talking about spin rates on even college players. When Garrett Cole came out in two thousand eleven. We just weren't. It wasn't part of the process. Cole went one and at the time most saw potential number one starter Strauss same thing. For the other four shirts had the stuff, but his command was questionable in his delivery, scared the absolute daylights out of most clubs for injury and command. So the stuff was there, the delivery and the command was not. Verlinden was highly thought of, and he was the number one pick in the twenty four draft. But, he was a little bit more of a to pitch arm coming out. He's a little bit more like Max. Mayer is right now, so you believe in him. You think you'll develop that third pitch. And he has four pitches. But really only two of them are majorly average or better right now, but those two pitches were really really good a lot like Max Meyer. The Club saw the fact that he walked one hundred and thirty guys in three hundred thirty college innings, and they weren't salivating over him like this guy's the next Nolan. Ryan We hope he's the next on Ryan. He's built like a guy that could go two hundred thirty innings a year and beat at. But there was risk there. It was an average draft class. Maybe not even average, and he went number two overall number, one upside lots of hurdles to get over in order to get their. Jacob degrom same thing, but even more so because he made eighteen starts in college, and didn't show big secondaries, and wasn't sitting ninety five, plus. That's why it wasn't a high pick. It took them three and a half years to go from drafted to the majors despite being a college arm. Now there's no injuries involved. Lacey Hancock mired. They're getting the big leagues far before that if three full years pass. And that player isn't in the in the big leagues already from college especially a major college. and. I mean major like including degrom pitching at Stetson. If you were a G C kinnear project. That's a different story. But it takes three years, and there's no injuries involved. There was a developmental snag and there were some issues. But what degrom did in that time is why he's elite today. It was absolutely not apparent at the time clearly. Chris Sale Had Delivery and change of questions would he holed up is their way to pitch effectively and consistently to write in and batters for a low slot lefty that six eight. Even the White Sox who took him in number thirteen in two thousand, ten new. It was a fairly large risk. They also knew he had a high floor. Is it as an elite reliever? But if you think that's what he actually is, you don't take him there, so they thought okay. Maybe we have something really good here in at number thirteen. It's not the same risk. It would have been number one number, five or number seven. But still a risk. But at the time, nobody was saying. Chris Sale Future Ace it was oh. We think he could get that for, but we don't know that. In most projections said yeah, there's number two upside here. Because, projecting number one slash true ace upside is really difficult to do all these players that are twenty, twenty, one twenty two years old have flaws. In all of these six that I just mentioned? College draftees and four of the six km with similar projections as this year's top three starters number two upsides from the scouting community. So while it's not something that's necessarily visible now in a SALESI, Emerson Hancock. That doesn't mean it won't get there Max Meyer. Most True Ace's weren't thought to be future aces when they entered pro ball, and we can throw Blake's now and Corey Kluber and guys like this conversation to neither really year to year aces. An injury has bit them the past few years, and that's part of the problem, but not long ago. They were and neither had that tag when they signed. So Hancock has good athleticism, good feel for all four pitches, all four or at least average two plus secondary's already the makings of a number one are there he has worked to do. And, if the dad on the fastball proves costly, and there's no fixed in place, which there will be Seattle's not stupid. He'll have to develop sixty or better. fastball command to carry the kind of fastball value aces always do. It's not a problem or a grips. Gripper spin fix is effectively in blended. Then sixty command would make him a number one star. Would make him that ace. And I think the fastball stuff was overblown. I don't think it's meaningless. But, that's probably why a data driven club including in the draft. Seattle took him a number six. I think there's at least a shot to be where Felix got to, but it's really tough to bet on that. Because it's an outside shot, and like I said a minute ago. A lot of number one aces enter pro ball with projections that resemble hancocks in Lacy's and Myers. And Gilbert's. Corey, Kluber was not all that highly thought of college he wasn't. either. It happens it happens a lot. Max Scherzer was a first round pick, but he wasn't number one. There were concerns there were issues. Thank you DJ good. Fun Question There Emerson Hancock be. Fun Fund to watch. Doug Salisbury checks in with the draft question. We are kind of been waiting for this one. Doug asks. Can you walk me through the logic of going under slot at forty three only to then go over slot at sixty four. To me. It seems that if the money would be the same. I E two, million, two, million at forty, three or sixty four. You're probably better off just picking the player you want at forty-three, paying that same amount and then saving it sixty four. That were you don't risk the player you value most getting picked in the twenty picks in between. Am I missing something. There are a lot of scenarios. That would work out that way, and that actually is the way they generally work out, which is why the scheme isn't put into play that often. It's not and it wasn't this year either. But if a club sees the better values in the draft in the sixties and Seventies. But no, it's going to take over slot those picks to get there. The only way to make it work is to save at least some money at forty-three, because the higher the pick, the higher the potential savings at the pick, if Seattle would have gone with, say Bisco at six, for example they could probably save north of two million dollars on that pick alone, but at forty three. They couldn't save that much because the picked value was under two million. So the savings they could have got it. Six is actually larger. Than the entire slot value at one point seven. At pick forty three, so if you needed two million dollars at forty three, which is three hundred k. over slot, you'd have to take a seven hundred K. player at sixty, four or eight, hundred and fifty thousand dollar player at sixty born six hundred thousand dollar players seventy eight for example. In some clubs do indeed do that. But the cashier is if you think that two million dollar player could be available at sixty four, which is the only reason why you do the under slot at forty three to go over slot sixty four. You take a one million dollar player at forty three and save seven hundred k. and then use the pig leverage. If you take the two million dollar player at forty three, you have far less pick leverage and value leverage over the player than if you take him in sixty four, so if you take at sixty four instead of forty three. Maybe you get that two million dollars player for one point eight. And that may be a reason why a lot of clubs passed on the coal Wilcox in the jared. Kelly's because. Word is I. Mean I think Jeff Passan mention that Cole? Wilcox was looking for three million dollars, which probably means at least two five. And I had heard that Kelly was looking for three million dollars. I. Don't know if they're gonNA. Get that, but when that's the asking price, the probably GONNA. Get relatively close to that. So if you end up spending two million dollars at forty three. Sure you could just make that up, but you're trying to maximize each of your picks also. Have you taken under slot guy at forty three? You got to keep in mind that maybe they're. They feel they're getting an under slot guy at forty three. That fits closer to forty three than maybe most other clubs. So in this in this instance, let's pretend that sixty four. The Mariners took Co. Wilcox and we're going to pay him two million dollars. which is like eight hundred thousand dollars over slot, so they needed to save at least eight hundred thousand dollars somewhere. So at forty three, let's say they take Zach. Lowe Chit forty-three thinking he was about the sixtieth or sixty fifth best player in the draft, and can get them for six, hundred or seven hundred thousand dollars under slot. Then you get you get to players that are top sixty five players for you. And you took care of the savings before he ever got to sixty four. Because you're going to know what Deloitte GonNa, sign for within a couple hundred thousand dollars, if not on the money. So there there are scenarios where you just take the player like like you said you. Just you just take the player. There's no reason to get cute and that's generally what happens. But when you see the value in it, and it's a little bit like football a lot of ways if you see the value in a certain area and you think a player's GonNa get to a certain point or you value a player more than the rest of the League or the majority of the clubs that would be drafting ahead of you and you think that player's GonNa get to you at sixty four and he and like you really truly believe that players getting to sixty four. Then, you would have picked leverage on that player. Because now slot is one point two, not one point seven. And Change, So. There's a five hundred thousand dollar difference there, so maybe you split that difference with the player so if he wanted two million dollars. But YOU KINDA WANNA. Pay Him one five. Because slot is one point two and he wants to. Even though slot is one point may be split that difference with him to get him for one point eight. Every I don't want to say every dollar counts because that's hyperbole, but I'd say every fifty thousand to one hundred thousand dollars counts. Because, you don't WanNa. Go over your bonus pool, and you certainly don't want to go. Don't go over significantly because of the penalties. In some some clue that some clubs you know you go, you don't really want to do that, but if you think you can, and you really truly believe you can. Then you do what you gotTa do to make it happen. But for the most part Doug. You're right. That's exactly what teams do. They just take the player. This year was weird. It was weird because it was weird. Draft in the mayor's took a weird approach in this draft. And the mayor's did not taken over slot player on day two at all, not one. Not One I don't care what the final bonuses turn out to be. In the end. They simply did not take an overslept player with any of their day to picks period end of story they didn't. And there's a chance that none of them signed for slot values. Though I think it would be relatively reasonable for two of them to do so. In a perfect situation here as we look at the draft like this, all clubs would just take the BPA. They would generally be in the same range as the rest of the league. And there isn't any of this. Be S but bonus. Pools and limits are major. League Baseball's way of suppressing bonuses so here we are. As the Cleveland Indians told me way back in two thousand eleven one I on the board when I in the money. that. That's what we're going to have to do, and that's what they did. When that all kicked in? Excellent question. Thanks appreciate it Hobos well. moving on here Tyler e asks Hey church. Wonder if you could take some time discussing the Cape Cod League in the mariners affinity towards taking players from it during the MLB network coverage on day, two, I heard Dan o'dowd say something to the effect at college teams aren't really sending their best pitchers to that league anymore, and that offense of numbers are inflated. Because of that are the M.'s putting too much stock into these offense. Guys if so. this actually isn't new the mainstream media is Kinda SORTA catching up on it for two reasons one because they're seeing the value of covering the draft and Summer Leagues and the Minor Leagues, and things like that a little bit more because the interest is there. but also because this is a weird year and the Cape Cod League has actually given a little bit more necessary data to Major. League clubs to make these decisions. 'cause The Cape or other Summer Leagues Provide Additional Scouting Info and advanced data to us in that evaluation process, the Cape however comes with caveats like like o'dowd said. The performance aren't all that important terms of numbers. Because most top college arms aren't there or they don't pitch much. Or when they do pitch, they're not going out there. Looking to dominate or because they're working on things, or they're in there for short and outings so inherently clubs aren't getting a lot of super valuable looks at pictures, and then that impacts the value of the production hitters put up. But it does offer look so the clubs can see what the players swing. Look swing looks like with wood, and you know generally against decent velocity. You still get pretty good velocity there it helps, but it's not nearly as prominent as this particular season. This particular draft makes it seem and it certainly not new at all. Cape Cod League is the elite wood bat summer, League in the country and has been for decades. I, don't believe the mariners used the Cape production for anything more than they should have or otherwise would have a poor performance. There would actually go further in the process than good ones, if somebody's struggled at the plate and hundred and fifty two hundred plate appearances on the Cape. That might be enough data to push player down a half around and more or completely off somebody's board. So this at least partially may entirely explains why so many college picks that were drafted including by Seattle. Had Cape Success? It was more of a process of elimination than anything else. And whatever it is the oldest. Piece of data. The club has on a player in a sample size larger than about seventy plate appearances. Since the end of the two thousand nineteen season, so putting a lot of stock in it would be dumb, but it is more recent and with a wood bat. So that contrast with the thousand nineteen season. And we got a short look at these guys in twenty twenty, so clubs were talking about it more that we're using that. Data as a little bigger piece of. The, Pie, little bigger piece of the process, but you can't look at the production. People looking at the numbers. It's really not that meaningful. Because still it is a relatively small sample, and like you mentioned like you think it was doubt that mentioned it You're not facing. You know ACN Emerson. ACA, you're not facing Friday and Saturday starters all that much, if at all in the Cape Cod, league. So I don't think Seattle used it really all that much more than most other clubs and I don't think they leaned on it the way that it, Kinda sorta seems like. Maybe they did because just about any player you take. That's a top one. Hundred and fifty player had some success on the Cape. A college player anyway, and that was all Seattle did was college players. They went with a very strange approach that certainly I didn't see coming and didn't take the most valuable players, the best players available at really any of those fix so they took college players, and a lot of those players play in the Cape and if you didn't have success on the Cape, there's a problem and you're probably not getting drafted or certainly not drafted as. So. It's I don't WanNa. Say It's coincidence because the Cape does matter a little bit, but. Even in a year like this when we only got a month of the college season, it's still relatively small piece of the Pie. I would value Twenty nineteen and twenty twenty college season more than the Cape. Even though the twenty twenty college season was half as long as a cape. Like forty percent as long as the Cape. thank you. Tyler I'm actually considering going out to the Cape Mex- summer I haven't been there since I was a kid and it's quite festive in it's. It's pretty good baseball yet. not super, busy, crowded, ridiculous and got put on mine, humid hat and deal with the heat, but anyway. Yeah, good question Tyler Kathy as the next question. Kathy says hey I'm not sure if you saw and there's a video or Zach Lowe mentions that his adviser told him the marriage or planning to take him in the second, unless Dylan dealer was available I. Don't really have a specific questionnaire, but I'd love to hear any thoughts you have on this also. Do you have any similar info about other players? The mariners have been specifically targeting and just missed out on. the draft used a lot of these situations in its. It happens a lot happens in every draft. It's not usually as cut and dry as this year, but because it was limited to five rounds, the lack of data on high school players, and for Seattle the approach they decided to take. It led them there for three of their day five. Excuse me three of their five day two picks. I was told they would have taken to lunch at sixty four Dingo ben there at forty three, but also were in deep similar conversations with Miami shortstop Ferdie Zamora which didn't get very far. I'm told at pick sixty four in anthony video at one zero seven. Neither player was available with those spots, but it's clear they wanted them for less than either. Going to sign for same with Daimler Dingo is going to be Detroit someone catcher in two or three years so I get why Seattle is on him and he went thirty eight. To. Five picks ahead of Seattle would have been really interesting to get Ding with the system. This is also why the trading of picks would make it more fun. Because just think of that particular situation Seattle wanted dealer forty three. Or they wanted more at sixty four, or they wanted so video at one awesome ballistic with England one because that's the question Kathy asked, so they want dealer at forty three. They don't feel like he's going to get there or they're worried that he's not going to get there. He's available starting the second round. MAYBE SEATTLE SENDS DETROIT PICK One thirty seven and pick forty three for pick thirty eight and just takes dealer. Although I got to be with you. I have hope for loach. I liked loach. I wouldn't have picked the mid forty three but I liked lunch. Kathy also checked in on the undrafted. Free agents question hopefully I answered. All your questions in that in that Second Ping me again and I'll certainly. make a better effort to Answer the question properly Thank you, Kathy hope the family is. Doing well. Is it hot over on that side of the mountains? Because it's June in? It's been raining here the last few days in the Seattle. Marriage. I dread the eastern Washington he just why? This is about as far east in the state I will ever live. I do not do well in the heat, which is why mentioned what? I did a little bit, the came. There in August. Hot and humid, so I'll have to prepare for that one more thing before we close the episode here with all the talk about Major. League baseball and whether there's going to be a season. Just. Finish this out real quick. Here's what I think happens in. It'll be the next week or two. Either some kind of last-second agreement between the Players Association and the League's owners for fifty to sixty game season that starts around. July fifteen July twenty occurs or major league. Baseball implements their. Apparent Right For a forty eight to fifty two game season. I also believe no all star game. I think that's a given at this point. I've heard that they may allow trades from the date of reopening spring training to the end of the regular season. That's being considered that there might be a few doubleheaders in order to create enough days off to make it doable for players, considering the situation larger active rosters up to and potentially be on thirty early in the season with some late summer dates. That may take it down to twenty eight. I don't expect it to get under twenty eight, twenty, twenty, including the playoffs, speaking of the playoffs expanded playoffs. You've heard about that up to sixteen total as has been reported, which means eight teams. in each league I do think they're ultimately going to try to keep the three division thing going to keep it as similar as it will be next year as it was last year as possible and then the five teams after that with the best record in each league to make up the sixteen playoff teams. The concern here which can be tonight or ignored is what happens if. A player or coach or manager or somebody else tests positive. What's the protocol? I don't know. I'M GONNA be interested in those details. And of course, if we were all using mask and social distancing properly, we'd have far less of a concern right now than we do at the moment, but the importance of the protests hasn't helped situation and I'm not going to sit here and jump on the cases of those protesting for the rights of black people in America. Just flat out not going to do it. I absolutely. Get it and I'm glad that folks are out there doing that But in terms of the season, I do think we're GONNA. Start the baseball. season. And hopefully the league and its players find a way to make it safe and keep it safe for everyone i. don't believe we will see fans in most stadiums and we'll. We're definitely not going to see full capacity and twenty twenty. That would be pure insanity, and to be honest with you. I don't really love the idea of full. I don't really love the idea of even partially filled stadiums. Because of what does that mean that means now you have to sell? Because you're going to have to, but you're going to. You're going to sell concessions. And now there's added risk of the folks at the concession dance. And the fans in the stands with the folks I. Just think minimizing I mean. Maybe they could allow twenty five to fifty percent capacity. Keep people, ten or twelve feet away unless it's the party you came with and you bring your own stuff. That would be better. but again I do think they're going to start the season. at least in I don't know what happens when somebody I don't know how they handle that, but hopefully we learned that in the next couple of weeks all right, that's all I have for this episode. I'll be back later in the week to answer your questions and take a look at some potential prospect impact. If, indeed there is a major league season summer going to assume fifty ISH games for that probably do that probably Thursday or Friday. They extra debasement for existing, thank you, Steve Mark Thank you for listening and driving every episode with your passion for Baseball. Stay safe help. Each other black lives matter piece.

baseball Seattle mariners Twenty Twenty League Emerson Hancock Cape Cod League Shuffler Justin Verlander Major League Felix Brett Rodriguez SEC Andrew Miller Tyler Kathy Logan Gilbert Emerson Shrek Max Scherzer Justice Sheffield Garrett Cole
PART 2: Nick Tammaro, Ron Gierkink, Ed DeRosa , Barry Meadow

Thoroughbred Racing Radio Network

1:48:01 hr | 1 year ago

PART 2: Nick Tammaro, Ron Gierkink, Ed DeRosa , Barry Meadow

"Let's with our team covering the bookkeeping or continuing yourself and monthly subscription check out our video tutorial on the portions mccown to chat and get started for free or spills dot com toll free number eight hundred eight nine four six four three learn the business of horses in the world's only accredited equine business program the University of Louisville Equine Business Program. The University of Louisville has a legacy of excellence silence for more than twenty five years of equine business education classes are taught by industry experts in state of the art facilities located in the heartland of America's equine Industry St the University of Louisville Equine Business program when it comes to horses we mean business for More Information Visit Business Dot Louisville Dot. Edu Slash equal. Why is accreditation important in aftercare the thoroughbred aftercare alliances standard of accreditation and GRANDPA's provide donors with confidence that their contributions abusive are allocated in the most effective manner? Da Accreditation is only awarded after a complete review of an organization aftercare cannot be an an afterthought for the industry to learn more or support the TA's mission visit Thurber aftercare dot org now back to at the races with St Leave Dick on Sirius XM radio such hands washed out. Send the ship down this same save the mass it was this you we're back at braces fifteen hour to weekend preview bid month here and Churchill getting started would bind with they're the first really too big weekends they also course got the international later in the meet later in the fall and and that brings in some international shippers this woodbine mile just the mile either northern dancer the more you look at it. I thought was was was intriguing and there's plenty of other a lot of stars on the card including Holy Khaleda and pink Loyd. WHO's I I for a horse? That's one like twenty seven in a row. Nobody seems the talk about him or pay much attention to him. Bob Tillers streaking sprinter and here's a streaking sprinter victim Rio depends on where the sprint destination is. I think might Tapei at times but shop racing form a yes to the windows. Definitely Pink Floyd is is really sort of a marvel in terms of how he's performed well routinely I of course needed him to at least be third in this race last year in the contest and finished fifth so the pink floyd stop it will be nowhere near Wreck Stale Ontario and so his chances tomorrow we'll probably increase exponentially. He's in the early. They put the bold venture early on the card actually in fact when I went to the stakes together and put them up Derby Trail Oh. I didn't even look that that early on the card so I didn't even have to go back in fact I don't know if I did go back and put it up but there are a couple couple of very nice horses here including Carlin's honor the Jack Oxley Breezy York good old Yordan approaching half a million dollars for a chiefs would and Stewart Simon you know a lot of your a lot of your local players in the sprint scene but pink Cloyd is now twenty one twenty six and it really was late last year September October that he started to show some some frings signs of tiring and Kinda sputtered out at the end of the year could. Could he be beaten in here. I don't think so no it looks like he's he's back where he needs to be and I don't really know I guess other than Caroline's honor who's supposed to be particularly big threat to him in the spot so he he should get the job done. I mean it's always nice to see good. Horses do Well York than obviously was in much better form coming into this last year having run a good second pink Floyd Royd individual and and that was also during a period of time where pink floyd was having a really hard time getting out of the gate so he's a little ornery for a seven year old gelding and he had a little bit gate trouble really about four or five races in a row going into last year's bold venture he he's not he still not they really particularly the obedient or when it comes to getting out of the gate or being trained for it but he's definitely a little bit better spot with that right now so I think given that he's he's inform and should be sitting right off of the of the pace. If you worked in may be line to the front end. I think he should be okay before we talk about the Canadian the end the grade to which does start the cross country and will incorporate the pebbles and the nightcap at Belmont Nixon thoughts about last week at Belmont. We talked about this Jockey Club Derby and oaks and the Grand Prix. I talked to Andy on Tuesday. The Grand Prix was oddly contest than I thought but some some quick hits on opening the opening salvos at Belmont. I guess guess I'll try and keep it as charitable as possible. Given I took my shots at it last week but I think they played out largely. How we expected decide thought was a pretty impressive winner of the Jockey Club oaks overcoming? I think by all counsel was a pretty negative pace setup and winning is much the best running down Wonderman who I thought probably got a little bit more the run of the race and the American contingent as we expected in that race as well as the Jockey Club Derby were pretty much no shows and it could also be that the American continuing is pretty thin out by now. We'll talk about the pebbles and a little bit but the pebbles is going to be the ninth race for one hundred thousand dollars or more for three year olds fillies on turf going back to June sixth six and that's insane so the ranks of American horses that are ready to go a mile and three eighths early in September. We're really not very not very robust and and that proved out on the lady side and I thought Spanish mission I I actually thought he was totally out of position and thought that he was about to have a Jamie Spencer Special before he was able to overcome it and get the job done so a little bit. I know that the horse was capable of overcoming his writer. I I would imagine he he should be one of the better distant sources that we could potentially see over here next year given that he's going to be off now until the spring and there's just obviously connections that have problems shipping over the Grand Prix North American Jockey Club invitational brought to you by whatever most pretentious name of all time that was one of the most oddly run races I've ever seen first of all. I don't know how the hell everybody knew. Marconi was winning that race for fun and then to watch the riders of both realm and roaming union gather a hold of their horses so strongly almost as if they were waiting for Marconi to catch up and take the lead after he blew the break so that he could go one sixteen flat it was basically sort of the epitome of what we complain about left and right about American American dirt racing right now and you know in this day and age of sort of turf occasion of American racing where everybody points to turf races races are run like turf races. It's almost as if one horse makes the lead all the other guys say okay well. They're the pacesetter we're just GONNA go ahead and sit back and wait for them to come back to us and the majority of the time on the dirt that just doesn't happen even so shockingly Marconi was able to set a pedestrian pace and and went on with it and I I obviously would not have been a big fan of his at the price he went off often. We talked about how it looked like a bit more competitive race on paper the other todd pletcher trainee your to blame. I thought ran pretty well. He was able to stop the pace on the inside but you know I don't y horse like roaming union was in there if he wasn't GonNa GonNa contest the pace especially given that he's from connections like Michelle Navin who generally have a pretty decent idea how to win dirt racist so that was is a little bit of a head scratcher. you know look my personal opinion is that if there's any thought given to this turf triple. I really hope that same amount of money is committed to a dirt program and trying trying to incentivize horsemen to get there and run on dirt more frequently really try and build up the claiming ranks again because it's kind of embarrassing through the first three days of racing. I'm I'm sorry through the first three days of Racing Belmont there were seventy eight horses total entered to run on dirt and there are over seventy eight horses enter to run dirt in the first day at Churchill so I if the same number number of races and and that's that's not good. That's a big big problem that creates a big problem in the winter so that's my hope for it as it is. I guess we'll see probably a little bit better from Spanish mission in the Diese Lisa next year well we turn to Belmont today and into the weekend a couple of very good maiden races actually as part of that card and maybe we'll touch on them but let's let's look at the cross country pick five and it is comprised of of the three three of the stakes would bind the Canadian the mile and the northern dancer that you know you the top of your head. You wouldn't have thought it the three of them were as complex as actually I think they are and then the pebbles and the turf sprint claiming nightcap the eleventh at Belmont so let's start with the Canadian you know this is an interesting field the and really they'll competition. Idea should probably go off a pretty solid favorite. I don't really see how tactically you could make a real stand with her and she's a horseshoe. Obviously needs to lay back and make one run and you know those types generally at the mercy of the pace and this race does not look like it's going to have really any pace speak of so so she's going to have to overcome that now. I will say that you'll Rosario getting back on board to me feels like a very good thing. It does seem like she's just a little bit better horse when he's John Her but now the flip side of that is that we know Joel style. He's GonNa take her back and let her make one run so I mean they're they're going to. There's going to have to be some pace in here that you can't really foresee and I guess the hope is that Dixie moon and or starship do believe maybe show a little bit more speed than they have before. That's if you're back competition of ideas with any great fervor because obviously what this is shaping up as a situation where Holy Helena has a big tactical advantage on the other favorite and and she's been effective at Woodbine in the past. You look good winning the dance smartly last time Jimmy was giving a little bit of time since and I think she's a horse that that will really get the run of the race and and that's GonNa make her toffee. This could be a situation where on your your pick five. You're really leaning on those two pretty heavily and maybe you could give a little bit of a nod holy Helena on one one more additional ticket. I did want to try and make a case for to Riga and my hope is the Tyler Galileo. Maybe a little bit more aggressive with her than Johnny. Velazquez was was last time he finished just length and a half behind the competition of ideas did get into a little bit of trouble amazingly. She got into trouble in the three-horse rates which it happens of course and with a little bit cleaner run maybe second off the off the layoff off the ship in we can see some improvement grim oceans been a little the little laid back with her she she ran on July twentieth didn't work until August thirty first but might be one of those horses that can stay fit without doing that. I I'm always very very in tune and was looking at his horses in these kind of scenarios as they they generally overperform relative to their odds so I'm GonNa go ahead and include Theresa's well the and will include could starship jubilee more than likely those two has backups because I think they each offers some appeal at what should be better prices than the two chalks should note that ah Jimmy Jerkins after sending Holy Elena opt for the dance smartly basically is as left her there and oh my Gosh the stronach trainer but my Woodbine what is yes thank you Mike Doyle. Mike Doyle has been handling and Jimmy is on TV with seth deny after after precision is one and he told the story about Jimmy said he got the notification is it is stable mail all that Holy Helena had worked Labor Day weekend and so gets the notice he opens it up and Airy Jerry Sees Holy Elena six longs one eleven and three Jimmy said got on the phone to this is Mike what's going on up there and he said I really don't worry though or she did it easy. Did it easy the track was the polly was slick. It was cold or whatever yeah what eleven at three and you know what I did. I brought up with Jimmy that great story that is his father told about Bo purple and going out to Hawthorn for the Hawthorne Gold Cup on Tuesday the race as was Saturday and on Tuesday he gets a call from a Chicago sportswriter and said Jerkins. I wanted to ask you for comment about outvote purples work and said what about it. He says well he he he went a mile in one thirty. Two and three Korea broke the track record or mile. I think he went to violent at eight and broke the track record. What what forty seven forty six shades or something and and and Jerkin said you know? I'm sure he'll be fine and sure enough. He went out and won the Gold Cup but that was funny. One one eleven and three Holy Elena has been absolutely had this circled on the calendar ever since the win in June so the timing was by design yeah yeah I'm not looks like enough to to really go ahead and make a major player. I'm sure the ultimate goal is ep Taylor and she seems like a horse. It would be a very good candidate candidate for that so we'll expect a big effort here absolute. Let's talk about the mile. You know I think the I guess what the more mile really boils down to who is is what approach to get stormy and got sore me. I should say and you know I I think that this is obviously marquette. Nina's element and and got stormy undoubtedly has really blossomed as a four year old filly. We've seen this happen before of course in his barn and one on the short rest. I didn't didn't particularly like her in the forest. Dave thought she was very impressive. That day. I did think she got a great ride from Carlos Santana who had her in the right spot the entire time I think that given given she was five to one eight two five or less than here. I think that you're supposed to take a little bit more of a critical approach. It's not quite Mr Wedding. Don't go to the funeral scenario because she wasn't that big a price but I think this is a scenario where you can get more appealing odds on horses whose chances probably aren't that much worse than hers and you know the two for me. Primarily are going to be call in and made you look and I know that both of them are a little bit more of the forwardly placed types and I don't think that's a bad thing I do think American Guru will more than likely be tasked with setting the pace and I figured you look going to get a very nice trips talking outside of him. I know that people are probably going to dismiss his last two in looking like they were mid. Pack type finishes that that would be the wrong approach to the four-star Dave it clearly the plan was to be aggressive with him coming out of the gate they were he was very close to to do in the middle part of that race he made the first move into it at the quarter pole looked like he was going to win and all of a sudden he hit the wall of course having been involved in that that suicidal pace in a more honestly asleep run race of a more traditionally run race. I like his chances and I think he's going to be very good price. I think he's a horse who really doesn't have to improve much to to get to where he needs to be to win and we've seen races in the past from around one turn that have really been some of his best so I'm gonNA. I'm GonNa take a shot there. I thought that was terrific. Last time I'm an winning the lure and and he tracked pretty strong pace himself and was able to hold off sacred life who had had an ideal setup and trip in his North American debut view and I feel like we call it has been handled in kind of a cagey way with an eye on this given the two mile is probably going to be ultimately what I think is going to be his best trip so I'm going to use those to both as as I'll include God stormy I think you have to include synchrony and raging bull Moore's backups for me raging bull. There's a horse that that I think needs to win a major race before we can start to look at him as a really a great one type I know he was a grade one winners the three year old but I think he said I think anybody would admit his connections that this has been a little bit of a disappointing campaign so far and you know I. I think that that will pretty much cover it. There's nobody that I worry about too too much. I know that awesome tank ran well last time in Beverley but I feel like these horses generally run their big race off the ship in and can take a big step backward in their next start but it's encouraging to see her hear what probably is her best distance and she's another one who'd be waiting in the wings. When if the pace pacesetters ultimately falter that takes us to Belmont the third leg of the cross country pick five and the pebbles the mile with for three year old yes speaking of of yeah I mean it's been a week since we had a three year old filly so it's time for the pebbles and of course we have the risk averse about a week and a half before that but all kidding aside I was really interesting to the east and the entries for this race? I did not realize that she had come to America and was in the care of Christoph Command. east was the Philly who was received some late in the game support award in the juvenile fillies turf was a mile out me too big move to run second. I was a horse. I think that that was on a lot of of wiseguy type tickets and I ah I don't know really what is you run into. She's campaigned against been campaigns against the best horses overseas and and really now in terms of of what she's lining up against. I know she hasn't performed all that well in her last two starts but this is a massive drop in class I mean we're talking about blow out and feel glorious and seek and destroy and and this is a Philly who's been running against laurens and and Castle Lady and Pretty Pollyanna an Hermosa. I mean this is just a huge drop in class. I guess there's some amount of concern about whether there's going to be enough pace for her to run at but I thought with Alyssa Kiel and blow out towards the inside there would be enough going on early to set her up. I I'm guessing that lasix might might be something that she needs. A firm turf might also be something that she prefers. There's been a little give me probably a little bit more given the ground than she's wanted in her. Two of her starts arts so far this year so I'm expecting a big effort from east I'm I'm not a big fan of of blowout and thought she set an extremely slow pace on that of course I that was gradually becoming wetter is race went on aback on Alabama Day and even though she will probably be in that sort of ideal Johnny v stalking outside trip I I would I would relegate her to more of a backup and I'm GonNa concentrate in here on east along with with passing out as as the main horses I thought passing out really took a step forward last time I don't think captured necessarily in her buyer figure but she feels like a horse still have some some moving forward in her and and I just would rather play the horses at good prices you can hear them. The two two over bad horses the Horse that the horse that I gotta bring up is the stretch out I in this guy off that Galloway performance yeah she she obviously moved forward a great deal at Saratoga now. I wonder I thought ought to back that. She ran as well as she did because she did get paid around. I thought Rosario gave her a great ride. I actually think he writes turf sprints at at any location better than anybody I've ever seen so. I just wonder that she's going to be as effective at a mile and also with regards to how the pace is gonNA play out. I mean I would I would imagine they'll be some consideration given to her just going and trying to get the lead especially if he'll and and a blow out or ridden conservatively as most horses are nowadays so that might be really what gives you the best chance. My problem is her. Two Mile Races says at least on the turf are amongst her worst so that was my concern. I don't blame anybody for wanting to go there because it's very very clear she's moved forward a great deal in her last two starts. We'll we'll find out if that was because that was the right trip or if she's capable of just continuing that forward well and Dylan Davis Ah that kind of voyage if they do want to if they do want to try to seize control of although I imagine Catalano is going to have some interest in you know it being forward you mentioned glow out Johnny they they could grab it just as easily but dylan. Davis is sort of Louis Sayas light when it comes to that you know that front end rabbi baby trip he I agree. I think that I think he's also writing better now and with a little bit more confidence than he was at Saratoga. We've seen the same thing with many Franko who has improved since getting back downstate and I think much of a pressure cooker as it is for for better than fans I think it's even more so jockeys and trainers and when you're struggling you really feel it so I I see him. I could see him being a little bit aggressive and if so I think that might work in her favor after the pebbles you go back to Woodbine for the northern dancer and here's a small field Chad Brown attacking ear but but Roger Outfield with streaking Tisza slam the man's plenty of attention nessie shows up in here kind of an interesting it's kind of interesting mix of horses and you've got the rare hop garden to Woodbine ship for the one old Persian yeah not not quite what you'd expect I was I didn't realize that the Dubai Sheema Classic stuck out on all persons. PP's as much as they do and and of course being owned by Godolphin you do get a little you I of course raise an eyebrow when you see these big phone moves in Dubai which obviously sorts did and he wasn't competitive competitive really in group one company prior to that and then found a way to win a race on World Cup night very easily. This is a race that's been supported by Godolphin pretty well. They sent to Hawk bill here a couple years ago and he found a way to lose to a former twenty five thousand dollars claimer. I don't know if all Persian will suffer a similar fate. I think that he will benefit from the fact that there should be two horses. You show speed cooler cooler. Mike anticipate slammed both or are front running types. Did this lands it very dangerous horse and I think you have to you have to treat him with a lot of hand limit a lot of care he's really hit his dry. Now is just a a one way speed type and I mean look at his record when Stephen Bannon is on and he gets the lead. It's it's pretty damn good and so oh I think that's enough for you to really give him a lengthy look and and I think while he will undoubtedly set the table for horses like Focus Group and Old Persian I still do think he's capable of getting the job done so even a shorter prices Old Persian is going to be. I'M GONNA use all three of them. I think focus group is probably most effective at a mile and a half and that bowling green being having been such a hodgepodge judge of horses kind of coming together with with the leader somehow staying on despite really setting a quick pace and look like he was going to be engulfed twenty five different times. I'M GONNA I'M GONNA include Focus Group and and think that maybe two configuration in the mile and a half might be ideal so I think this is one where some people will want to maybe lean on old Persian a little bit more if I I think he is certainly in good in a form but I do think that there are real alternatives and then you might want to entertain those and then back to Belmont for the nightcap this turf sprint six furlongs on the Inner Thirty Thousand Dollar Phillies bears the two lifetime back with respect to the veteran the ageless Mike Lousy. How much do you WanNa lean on him? As a probably a two favorite on a big drop down for a high percentage aren't learn given on something joyful and I think that David Arizona's a tremendous morning winemaker. I'll be surprised if my girl goes off the favorite in this race. He's I guess she could but he's a really bad horse and was able to find a an awful forty thousand dollars maiden claimer feel to win last time does does not look like she's going to get a sniff of the early lead here either so I've been surprised by the way some of these things have gone in the past. I'm not going to be shocked. I'll tell you who's a bomb to throw in there by the way I think something joyfully clearly the horse to be. I think the class drop is more than enough to to make me land there. did you dues one race on turf was very good and the fact that Tom Morley is willing to get back in ultimately to probably get her to the turf. I I thought I thought that was I thought that was an encouraging sign and and while she didn't finish all that great didn't really face that great afield she got involved in a really strong pace in that debut was quite a while ago of course she's obviously affiliate who's had some some issues but I thought she was one that you might want to include it what could end up being a pretty big price and I think the same thing of Android android is not going to be big price but she looks like she'll get a really nice setup up and and looks to fit this kind of race quite well. It is kind of a maddening finish to the sequence because it's a it's exactly what you'd expect. I guess in a thirty nine to life so once you work your way through it. If you feel like you can stand on a couple of legs being a little bit more narrow like I kind of alluded to then this might be a spot where you you end up going three or four deep because it does look look like contention runs pretty deep well and I'll I'll throw in a throw in just the windows little tidbits that that I love in this nightcap. It's a keeper for Bob Massey Yellow and Tom Emmer tranny her sis- I have no problem with doors. Well her sister a runs in the fourth so you've got you've got sisters on this card. keep it in the fourth and here's it's a keeper dropping in for a tag for the first time and is that that alone makes her intriguing it here at fifty to one and Louis raise doesn't get had a whole lot of you know. Super Live opportunities but I thought his fifteen to one. It's a keeper horse that the need to be aware of in in some backups at the very least 'cause I agree that you know with your general premise that this is This is a greased watermelon this race it is we saw over trying to win on Sunday with Dan Darragh in kind of a similar somewhat similar scenario getting some class relief and and being an winning a realistic spot where she can win i. I guess both Bob Masiello and Tom over Toronto reach the conclusion that that their horse was worth attack and and they're spotting her properly here. She's a climber. It's just you know it's that simple and I think she'll probably move forward on the class drop so I would certainly find a way to include her fifteen to one would be plenty attractive enough so yeah I think we could you can find yourself yourself alive in this thing to some pretty Nice pretty nice probables closing it out. I assume that even though the first leg is is it would buy a fifty cent minimum because I think Belmont is technically we've hub. They know this was the cross country five was offered once before on Woodbine Mile at a twenty cent minimum match up with with their with acid assiduity. Yeah let's see I think it's going to be fifty cents. I would imagine if I find any different. I'll certainly tweeted all right. I'm looking on the let me look at it. Starts on the would binds A and I don't think it was on the website actually delineated specifically so all right. I will mention quite a few. These races are overlaps in the beat Bic Challenge Championship very disappointed we did that. You didn't get the qualify for I completely missed it. It was it was almost as if time just flew by and and I I definitely erred in doing so but I'm gonNA take my next. Hd Shot at Keeneland in a few weeks and we'll see if I can go ahead and knock that out well all right. I disappointed minded. I I looked last night and I got to the tees and there was no tomorrow so no good no good no good that that can good luck this weekend. I appreciate it. I should really give everybody a SH. Sh we should have run these down. Shoot me. Shoot can shoot me the at least the as in this and no question about it all right we'll do. You're good luck buddy talking. Actually Nick Nick could be followed and Tam T. a. m. m. one two one five back after this ron gear kink will head across the border and talked to Rhonda about his thoughts on the not just the Woodbine Mile Card because I do WanNa get the town uh-huh and the summer discussed on Sunday because if you haven't looked ahead a lot of good two year old racing and more on that Sunday card it's a great great weekend of action it would buy back after this apparatuses who's with Steve on Sirius Xm radio hey what's going on here and I'm going to tell you about an offer from my good friends at express. I bet let's be honest. 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I know they'll that'd be glad to see old friends equine dot org or call us at five. Oh two eight six three seventeen seventy five breaking down the biggest stories in the horse racing. This is at the races with vic on Sirius. XM radio in the fall Bash Bash. We're back at the races about fifteen to the top of the hour four and always a pleasure to bring the races Canadian racing and when I you say Canadian racing I mean both standard bread and thoroughbred one of the really knowledgeable and terrific daily racing form forum correspondents gear king joins US good morning hurry today not bad not bad pretty busy this week to who drives for these weekend cards on Wednesday and it was a lot of any capital two big time and I really stressing to people that you you know the tendency when you get a big weekend at Queen's plate or doesn't even have to be confined to Woodbine is not even think about Sunday but Sunday Day in some ways Sunday is as good a card as Saturday. Maybe even to some degree even more intriguing. Yeah maybe so maybe so better betting card you know they're both parts but with fourteen year old steaks on Sunday to great ones I mean it's it's really you could be some future. Stars that car like war will last year ranks second in the summer as a maiden so really I don't know where you want to start but I suppose and I keep literally as we built up to Woodbine Mile conversations I kept referencing the stars that we're GonNa be on the card and beside the Woodbine mile players you know holy Helana back the Woodbine and actually has stated Ada Woodbine since the dance smartly and and Pink Lloyd who I told just a little bit ago I told Nick tomorrow for a horse that is done as much as he has a and has been so good for such an extended period he he's a virtual unknown. I don't I'm kind of this defied by the lack of notoriety for pink floyd at this point. I guess you know he's looking at a regional horse and until there's been conservative with him he hasn't snl town. He hasn't tried him on the turf. He doesn't think he really has a turf foot so he's just around the same race as every year and he just wanted to conover stakes for the third year in Arro- the almost broke his track record in that race and I guess you know if you if you're gonNA try and beat him. This is the time to do. I think because you know we bombed in this race last last year running running back in two and a half weeks yes. He's probably a better horse this year than last year so he might be bit vulnerable just because he's coming back a bit quick and it's it's a fairly tough. There's some good alternatives like Yorktown won this race last year easily when he was in better form he's had a break coming into this race. Has Connections were unhappy with the the forward ride that he got last time and now he's drawn outside again with Patrick Husbands a new writer who's been working working him. He can sit me just office sable island and I'm thinking you've got to run a big race whether it be good enough to be pink floyd. I'm not sure but that's who I picked nice all right well I. I asked I said Nick again he can he be beaten beat and then of course last year at this time he started to tail off yeah yeah so last year right. That's been smooth this year so far this'll be his six start of the year and it was actually last year in his seventh and eighth starts so you know maybe we'll see what what tiller see how this goes and then what Tiller does come in out of it you gotta I gotTa get back on. I haven't talked to him this year last year. When the horse just I mean he was just so much fun you running things to say about him? Yeah exactly that's fair. The let's talk about the Canadian and and Nick just now he went through the cross country pick five which teams up with with Belmont and it starts with this Canadian radiant and yet it's so rare to have a mile and an eighth at one turn on on turf in North America and you know would bind is you yeah the place that has this opportunity and you know you look at these racists slightly. I think slightly differently really suits starship jubilee because she won this race easily last year and I think Kevin Hart a little frustrated with some of the rides he's got in terms of just just the fact that they tried to take her back when she runs in longer races and she's come running a little late so now she's back to. Maybe your best distance. She'd worked very good it on the main turf the same course running on coming into the race. I think she's going to run a big win. You guys talked about holiness and and like she did get the summer Iraq and dwell fresh under up and Mike Doyle. I think you know a mile. An eighth is a little short for her and they're really they need to win a great one with her before she retired so she's he's really pointing to the Taylor so maybe this is one that she'll need interesting interesting what other what would what did you do it here what direction I think you know competition of ideas I she's always underneath. You know. She's a bit of a hangar right. She's I think she should come running late for and you know that's that's about it really G. Giovanni blues come running late for a piece of two. She's never been in better form. She's more of a mile and a half horse but maybe she's a long shot that could hit the trier the super that gets us to the Woodbine Mile and this race is has has really become a a centerpiece and not to take away from the other sponsors and the earlier incantation when it was the ato mile but naming it the woodbine mile and I and maybe tappin at her notoriety contributed but the race has really been elevated I it seems Ron in stature and InFocus yet. Your has been a great Breeders Cup Mile Prep over the years and not necessarily last year but this is probably an above average field for for this race a little better than last here. I mean silent poet poetess a horse a local horse who I think is getting overlooked. he won the broke. The seven furlong course record in in the local prep for the race agreed to play the king and he's very tactically can go to lead or second or third looks like he's probably GonNa stock the other strike stable runner American Guru who would expect to go into the lead. I I like to call it a lot. he reminds me of Shakespeare when when McLaughlin Auckland won the two thousand seven Woodbine mile was Shakespeare who had been off for almost two years before he came back and won the two mile in his second start after a long lab to complete his career and new collins making his third start after a layoff of over a year and coming off a nice race in the lure and he's very he's he's he's got a good stocking style that he can sit maybe third undersize and being near what could be a moderate pace and before he pounces and I think you know I I was I when any circling tweeds the other day after the draw that would be great value at eight to one at that made me feel better about Maybe selecting them so I think I think he's in with a pretty good shot. We should talk a about the females in here and got stormy that I really latched onto at Saratoga over the summer and we're having our our beat big challenge championship it's kind of appropriate the Eh she's actually on a card because I used her both weeks in a row with when cassie Gary Barber sputter back from the Dale arose into the four star Dave and then of course there's also the you talk about being overlooked awesome tank who ran a very good race behind sister Charlie in the Beverly D and comes back to North America and a I I don't. I'm surprised that nobody's really you know had much to say about awesome. Thank yeah I believe I was just going through the paper my colleague Marcus Hirsch picture sort of a long shot square place the price to play so yeah. There's there's some appeal with her. I mean whether it mile is maybe a little short for her. Maybe she's more of an underneath horse. got story. We worked very good on the the main turf last weekend. If I think that's something that hasn't been brought up yet here. Maybe fat even faster than the posted time mm-hmm because of those those works around the cones are hard to time but it looks like she's coming into the race in in good order not not a horse. It's maybe the fried from two to back to back races so at Saratoga so yeah I think you you know I just think Edda short price you have to try and beat God stormy with somebody raging bull deserves attention Joel Rosario reuniting with uh with him and he got untracked late in the four star Dave and was making progress ended up pushing through to to get second behind got stormy and a raging ball. I think is a at the least eight minus on tickets. Yeah I'm not. I'm not sure what to do. A synchrony I mean he when he won the the the gray to King Edward on Queen's plate dated beat that that good field really but he looked good doing it and he's obviously point them to this race since then stood up and if you just bet fair hill horses at the would buy me we all year you'd be up a fortune I mean it's just been a tremendous angle and of course picks up Buffalo Avian Pratt so you know he could run big. I'm not really sure what to do with him. Though gets us to the northern dancer and short field but a little bit of a little bit of an interesting scenario and I really respect what Hatfield has accomplished with Tisza Slam and the five year old has strung together the Louisville the Singspiel and and the jet ski wins at now guns for a great one yeah and you know he's been getting fairly soft leads and the connections I think he doesn't really need to lead that he can track a horse and go on to victory and it could end up tracking a cooler Mike here who gives a mile and a half on the main turf every every we day I just saw this morning so he he's that long shot his maybe going to lead the way with Kizer Slam sitting second and my my long shot play Sir say he boozman chasing to the slam home in his last couple of steaks engagements where we're really not a lot of pace to run at and then this time it should be a little quicker the pace and and he's really he's a four year old STRANA runner. This is his fourth start off the layup. It could be sitting on the race of his life. I think he's worth using it and which would be ten to twenty two one. Maybe it is it is notable that with the with the change in in Wilkes had I've ever had this source and that's our took some time to get them going. He has made two significant in forward moves in these last two performances and one more step forward and absolutely ron that that's a that's a legitimate elite clever push yeah. He's worked very well coming in the race to a bullet fifty nine and one the other day so I think my my colleague Penny Candy Eddie Peck picked him too so I'm not the only one who likes him. I gotta ask you before we talk about Sunday. We're having we're having the the AH the NHCD final to send somebody the Vegas and the woodbine eleventh happens to be in the sequence and I'm going to ask you what you're doing in there to help people that might be listening and taking notes. This is a nice allowance of money allowance group going six on the grass I I I work with the CASSIE horse combative. He's he's three to one on the line. He's coming up of the elite closing maiden win on the set going Oh and seven and a half on the inner turf now. This is six furlongs on the main turf lane one so there's a lot of room on the course and there's a lot of speed in the race yeah on paper. It looks like it sets up for him so he's not he's no secret or anything but that to kind of jumped out at me in that race fair enough off with the silver three two one let's turn to Sunday Ron Gear kink with us from the daily racing form the big big big weekend and we can talk about some of the other races uses but let's start with the summer and the town that have been very productive on the juvenile scene for the Breeders Cup since the advent of of the turf races for Juveniles and some of them actually you know have tried dirt you know it's a kind of a mix and match and no shortage of players in this great once summer what Nice Field Yeah what a great field and I haven't seen align on this yet. I don't think it's quite yet but keep on truckin. Obviously be one of the favorites favorites if not de favorite. He's been the most flashy local two year old this year. He's one is to racist by a combined total of almost twenty links beat Ontario breads last time in the Clarendon now he's been sprinting on the Topeka. This is a mile on the turf sure he certainly bred to run on and and bread for the turf whether or not you know he can beat. This field with the speed style is is hard to say. I'm Katherine Days. The trainer is is very adamant that he doesn't need to lead. He's very tactical and that he he he he can do whatever they want him to do. Emma Wilson World last time she got hurt the other day so the Silva's back on him for this race it's GonNa be fascinating to see him. In the mix here running against a few Europeans. you know a couple of really good Saratoga made winners decorated invader the Khulumani Torso first and then Todd pletcher is the debut Inter Mystic Lancelot. I mean what a what a terrific field and and Kathy's got a few cats actually kind of European in the race and I don't know and Joey O'Brien has a tiny little known they never called and a- and the Horse I ended up picking actually please call me back who was second in the local prep. The soaring free stakes looks like he'll love a mile and Roger hatfields roads are putting blinkers on He's a half to Dixie moon and Guy Caballero a couple of routers. I think I think he's going to really be a good road an Ontario bread who might be acquaintance play next year how about that and Moon dixie mood is running somewhere this weekend as she's in the Canadian yeah that's that's right yeah. I was GONNA say it can't last weekend and Mr Harbour camp passed on the with my mom that she's been in a bit of a slump this year but she's coming into the Canadian meanwhile off last week so that's why I thought I got a mention because we've been tracking proven strategies the Sky Mesa call for lead green in our friend Aaron Your Goethe and partners and he's a maiden granted but they've got high hopes for him and he seems to be a little little bit of a little bit of a project but cassie swinging for the fences here and I don't blame them. with this this kind of an opportunity you you mentioned the imports while it addition to Joseph O'Brien showing up with the Qatar owned Vittachi Gary Barber clearly found found a horse for purchase and gets the services of Flavian Pratt secret stash and macadam philly that takes the shot in here against the boys only gets three pounds for it but interesting that secret stash it double entered but what what we hear. What are they doing well yeah? I guess you know she's a philly entered against the boys in the summer as well. I mean I mean I would think she'd run against the phillies. Maybe they're looking for the softest field because sometimes in the past two summers come up easier than than the town I mean in this case I'm guessing she's GonNa stay with the Phillies but but that said Kathy has couple of others in the his multiple runners in both races so oh I guess they'll handicap races and then go from there well and Gary Barber eclipse do have that diamond sparkles in the Philly race ace and if you're if you're talking about ease of you know ease of the two races obviously let's start the town conversation with fair Bayden who I had gone after the catch a glimpse the horse had turned heads when beating boys at Arlington and fair made in seemingly way the horse to beat it here yeah she she just toyed with that at field in the catch a glimpse stakes going six and a half on yielding turf last time shipping in I'm from Chicago. you know Emma Wilson obviously he's hurt and so played being Pratt's picked up a pretty nice mount their You would think she'd go mile. I haven't seen the line I think she'd be the favorite but the mark Johnson English phillies. She's no slouch either you know she she went through. She went three in a row in England before running third of four in a group to at Deauville in France so that looks like a series of course to walk in Marrakesh is philly there. You're talking about for Meribel and a Irish interests very nice and Jamie Spencer back again to ride after winning the titus photo we've seen since since a dead eat frankly Spanish haddish missions when the last week Spencer was was all out desperate. He's got that flailing motion Ron you know that that that hoo-ha Walk Cowboy riding style from Europe and it it doesn't look good so I I always wonder about you know it's not taking away from the Horse's action but could get overlooked here. A little bit is coach. Laurie him cassie debut winner going five eighths on the inner turf Jr's ars GonNa ride her and she's worked just unbelievably well heading into this race on the Topeka I think she's a Cairo. Prince of Burton Jones home-bred. I I think she's going to run big very nice. I and I see that you picture actually I did yeah for the I saw the fifty eight and to work I mean she she started five lengths behind the runner finished five in front that day. It was a very impressive well beyond those two stakes. There's there's two others as the antero racing and then the woodbine cares which I assumed as a kind of a fund raiser for aftercare Yeah Woodbine cares it's like charity to honor charities that would bind participates in the affiliate there to catch fast seen I mean she she ran against a a fair maiden in the in the catch a glimpse and she set the pace. She was just a runaway on the lead that day and she's cutting back to five eighth on the inter- speed is in going five on the inner turf is just so important and looks like she's speed the speed and that's the eleventh and final race on under any other any other maiden races are or the other stake that you want to mention. I should say by the way that in that would bind cares. who was it that caught? My eye was one where is it. Oh barely seen a horse that we talked about with Brad Cox the buyer and another fast philly since okay they about about her nice she's worth. She's worth looking at in here and obviously it's a question question of pairing up you mentioned fast scene and I'm looking around to Avi Samurais got speed and you know this. This thing is obviously going to this. Is this could easily over boil right. You may need you may need to be poking around for somebody that can come from off the pace somewhat reminded. We're supposed to get rain tonight. not that it's GonNa make the turf the soft or anything but even with when we get a lot of rain the inner turf is always firm under the water just goes right through it the two fabulous days of racing at Woodbine Woodbine Mile Card and then the great ones spill over into Sunday Ron I appreciate she ate the visit as always always great to touch base with you I didn't come this year but I'll. I'll put it on the list for next year for those of you. That aren't following Rod. You should be D. R. F. Gear King. Gi Har- Kia K. A. Rod enjoy best a lot. You're welcome Steve. Thanks rod gear cake from the Form Long Time Forum warm correspondent and family involved in the standard breads and a exceedingly knowledgeable and a good good player Ed Garozzo standing by and I I had to get run on early because he had to get out and now I have to get to Ed because he's got only until eleven thirty good morning any good morning happy opening day church. Oh absolutely not the same as happy Derby but quite you know yeah happy non winners to Kevin live racing closer than further away though though no doubt no doubt and and you're going to be heavily involved and everybody is going to get a chance to hear from you and and Joe as the meat unfolds colds and boy these I do cards as I said to scully things really get off to a flying start. They do back half of the car especially today. Hey you know for Friday. Just thinks level allowance races interesting maiden on the turf the only turf race today for the two year old doc raised five so yeah a lot of interesting looks today and then of course is powers that may never too early to think Derby and oaks but we have an official reason to do so tomorrow 'cause the points racist kickoff with the Pocahontas scenario well and I do WanNa get opinions from you Ed and we'll save that Atfer the end of the conversation because I really want you to hit the highlights about the overhaul on the APP and and for those that you know some of you play twin spires on on your laptop or your pc but the APP has been refashioned and there's more bells and whistles seemingly on the horizon to absolutely yeah the good thing now with you know technology on where it is a Qalat easier to be agile and develop these things so first and foremost WANNA encourage everyone who interacts with it definitely let us know the good the bad and the ugly because it was developed in such a way that we are able to adapt to what our consumers want so send us a tweet. Send me an email what have you but let us I know what you think first and foremost by don't mean ever going to be a finished product. We always want to keep making it better for our user but the one thing I'm personally most excited sided about the what's the new APP is it's just plain faster and I'm a big desktop user really haven't cut the cord in that regard but when I'm out and about need need to rely on the mobile can make that this is unquestionably just a more efficient experience to get through whether it's a pick five or just get back down on a horse's nose snows so for those who may be resisted the the mobile environment so they're comfortable you know calling about in using their desktop. definitely check this down because it's just it's a lot quicker and it's a lot of experience and I think the the replace status on replays on the phone yeah it was there when we updated the the mobile responsive and I'd be shocked if these are available go I I hate to I hate to promise like next week but it it's all rolling out shortly so the replayed will be there. There were also incorporating more handicapping stuff. This is just kind of bare bone start there and then bet share the other thing. We're excited about. I've I've shared a few this week and hopefully more people were looking for partners. They have a little fun and some of these tickets can use the mobile APP and get get people involved excellent. Well check it out and I came across it with the with an update myself to like sixty Steve APPs you know one of those yeah I do yeah you see that you see that notation and and there was so I- I I poked around and it looks great thanksgiving and like like I said it's it's living and breathing and we know what these update you know. Some people aren't going GonNa like everything and that that's okay we want to hear from you and we want to you know just keep improving as we go along so hopefully your listeners won't be shy hi and racing Peter Correct they won't be let's get to the to the action anything anything today today ED before we go to Saturday Yeah Really WanNA point out race it is I was believe it's race for and it's the morning line favorite but really race but dark arts is a horse. I'm GonNa Lean on pretty heavily. In the early sequences of the race ready for number six stretches out a little bit to seven furlongs which actually like for our Chart Chart didn't work out too well before Steve claimed named but the horse has improved since and get Santana and I think in a race for a lot of people are going to see Super Competitive that that horse might be one to lean on and and then race seven a two year old race I thought what Toy on debut was super super game and just missing ahead and it didn't seem seemed like any of the first or Enra- seven or going to be world-beater so I thought toy a five to one with Corey Landry Up was worth a look today. It's all right. Let's turn to the the two year old steaks and work our way back and it's impossible to bring this this action without discussing that is his moment I and I cannot think of in recent memory of a maiden winter that has had had people so looking forward to their next outing yeah absolutely I and I was thinking yesterday when talking with James for our podcast odd cats and I didn't say it I'll say it now though this is the first time I think as long as I've been covering racing that I can remember the most exciting two year old male not having run at Saratoga Down Mar in the summer. certainly Ellis's is unique so really really curious to see how he does and I'm actually GONNA GONNA play against the is what I think will be outdone. I don't think we're GONNA get ninety. I five but is just too much of a gamble for me with the outside post and I was there for that her juvenile and I thought Rowdy Eight and let me know both ran super races there and the much bigger price I pick let me know on top here. I think with a better insight trip of Calvin works out something up the rail. He can make some noise late He's GonNa have to catch his moment but I'm I'm stabbing with. Let me know in the Air Koi I I did. I I said to scully to you had to you have to at least consider the the other the other interesting interesting parties and Scabbard as well as gotta be mentioned and Rowdy Yates scully likes January one at least as a as an exotic candidate There's there's more going on here than than just just the big. The Big Star two year old. Yes I agree and you know posted is is no picnic. I mean just looking at the post stats going eight and a half especially especially for two year old definitely favor further inside I mean it's not awful the outside so we we can't win from out there but you know if you're looking for reasons that's at least a little bit of a spy to add to the recipe again ironically though number nine black right is another alternative for me. the comeback at Delaware. Maybe this is too much too soon from five and a half to eight and a half but that it was a fast race in that in that AOL the Trevor McCarthy comes in for the Mount so as you said there. There's enough going on here that it is on I'll play against them being the Nets world-beater but certainly a win an impressive went here and it's hard to imagine he's not the favorite in the breeders of Juvenile Yeah Great Okay Great let's turn to the phillies and here you know portrait may not necessarily come in with as lofty expectations or you know as big of a wake in in you know a regard to the maiden win but the main win was by a dozen lancs and and this is a clearly a serious philly might be a few more interesting options would building. He plays in here. and I really like Kenny mcpeek Philly I can't imagine a three to one co morning line choice. I it seems like Brad. Cox's axes pair are both gonna take more money than her own nine race field. Maybe we can get a ten or clubs our mutual hopefully people be scared away by the fact that she started a career on her My thought there fever is that she probably just wanted that middle type of distance by morning line out of an Indian Charlie early mayor the mile type distances make sense and a lot of the options on dirt is a two year old or by shorter so I thought Kenny probably had a a lot of confidence in the silly wanted to get some races and now shows up here on the dirt with Jose Ortiz retaining them out that maiden win so three to one would definitely be my absolute war with her but actually think we'll get a little more with the two Cox is likely to take money and you know that that made and went on the turf she that she made a nice little move and that just bloom away from there and could expect the same thing here at a decent price the horse the horse I keep just wondering about is blood-curdling. This is one of those mystery horses that shows up at a spotlight this and I I totally it's what about a fifty fifty split. The mystery shows up and runs big mystery horror shows up and disappoints and and I will say this about the the two year old shipping in like this and I'm I'm drawing a blank on the name. I know we've seen a Texas bread that Bret Calhoun had he shipped the my pyramid and one this type of race and of course rowdy gates is is in Oklahoma Brad. you know winning it out with but yeah these these types have kind of storm Dan then and one of these big two year old races so I wouldn't let you know where this one broke broke his maiden discourage anyone and especially you know before choice on on the morning line. I think you're going to get the price you well that this is the first the first pair of significant to turn two year old races toward the fall in toward the Breeders Cup and win in your in action at the really really a nice a nice mid-september highlight as Churchill season gets going we also get the races around to turns and would short earlier the open mind and the Locust Grove in the Locust Grove really struggling with the obvious one thing obvious to me but if I can be Denis's moment than you know I won't matter that escape clause or my lady curling one and of course seen a pair come out of a racist this'll down to compete in the greatest fake that Churchill warms my heart so what's for their albeit not at great prices races but I do think in the open mind the Ascott Day on the outside with Carol no no way to declan cannon. Excuse me Danny pilots. is the guy that confided with horses. Your Church really burned me a couple of times in in the spring summer me I think Ascott what day has has a look here at six to one on the outside all right so yeah. That's that's my pick four approach coach GonNa try to beat the favorites in the open mind I'm pretty rocky in the middle two legs but then I think if an actually there is no big before but to start pick five She's going to try to be narrow so I can use a few against Dennis this moment very good all right I i. I'M NOT GONNA I won't I won't argue what anything else on the card. Nothing else on Saturday haven't dug in to much. I gave my church. Oh and I will say I'm running back starship jubilee. I think I pick her and every star this year and I keep thinking man. It's gotta be next time She's GonNa find the right group and I think in in the race the do they call it the Canadian there the the Philly turf free on the Woodbine. My wonder pirate. I think tomorrow's finally the day for me cool. That'd be fine. I got no no the argument I've also utilized utilized her on a regular basis looking ahead to Sunday Churchill kind of more more of a more of a mundane slate but still still okay with the second level second level I would says the feature and and yeah you know more more meat and potatoes. I'm sure those opening Saturday ten but one thing you know Scott Shapiro and I were talking about terms terms of pointing to this me with all the turf Racing Kentucky down and of course Cain Linda world-class turf as well to Churchill isn't but this kind of inbetween need a really great spot for some horsemen to to get some opportunities that the person is on the main tracks here and one thing I under is that the September meet since its inception Churchill which is twenty thirteen trainer Dale Roman positive flatbed our watch for guy people know about and typically takes money and his owners like the bed as well. I thought that was pretty incredible fat on him. that this if need no matter what if you bet you'd be head how and what what's the I saw that you made that that the stat and how many starters does that include one hundred sixty seven. That's I know you can't argue with the statistical significance of that so yeah he's he's one to look and and I did want actually go through all the winters I mean I'm guessing he had a couple upsets in there. Maybe I popped or something. I'd like to see what you know is helping them get to that number but nevertheless yeah over six seasons one hundred sixty seven sorry so we're talking about. Twenty five plus starts in me to be ahead. I think speaks you know pretty well that maybe you know some maybe some form darkening at Saratoga or turf the dirt site move. I'm not entirely sure I need to dig it more to try to find you know maybe we're crisis is gonNA come with me but nevertheless a name to to really pay close attention to Churchill et de got I got a couple of newer got about two more minutes if you want before I let you go anything. anything that we missed. They didn't get a chance to talk to you the last couple of weeks at the end of the summer yeah well. I'm looking forward to the the final run-up. I've seen a few articles in the last couple of weeks about the eclipse award picture which is always a topic topic I enjoy and I mostly agree with them. I don't I can't remember a year where so many divisions were up for grabs and you know even in division who's in for we have kind of clear superstar so to speak like sister Charlie the female serve reality. She's only one two great ones in much admiration ration- as I have for her talent you know that that's not good enough so far which is great because that means you'll have to earn it and talking to Chad Brown round after his spectacular million performance. He is a trainer. That's not shy about saying yeah we we like these awards for our owners and regarding regarding bricks and mortar he mentioned how his barn has never trained a horse of the year and how much that would mean to his operation so the fact that he is aware of what it takes then that he wants to these awards I think is great because I wanNA see Sister Charlie compete at the top end but if a horse like fully like got stormy when the Woodbine mile two great ones against males you know sister travel is going to have to earn it so even in division where there are some superstars no gimmes and hopefully that's going to set up for the second or at this point late third quarter of racing I I sort of was hinting at that after the four star Dave and knowing that she was headed toward this assignment and this is this is this is the Tappin turnpike hike yeah it is and Marquess and other trainer this it's not afraid to tackle pick assignment for you know various rewards whether so you know accolades and obviously the the person's nice as well so it's the setting up by you know Kinda I after the air we weren't a lot of different directions action that things are really coming into focus now ed Derosa Good Luck meet and we'll be watching TV and on the on the simulcast feed and and watch it through the twin spires freshened APP and we should also mention. I'll repeat that Kelly Reilly has got the international sources in focus as well up at the twin spires block. That's right and we're dreaming. Churchill downs today on twin spires APPS when spires on order so check that out for insights into everyday excellent Ed thanks we'll get you back regularly and as we start the march toward readers cup Ed Derosa. EJ Xt to your twitter. Let's take a break coming up on the bottom of the hour. Ferry Eto is going to join us in a couple of minutes. We'll come back from the break. I WANNA give everybody the big challenge layout and so about five minutes into the last half our we'll be joined by Berry. We'll talk more about his terrific book. We haven't talked. I guess probably since June wanted wanted to have more regular visits but my summer was so screwed up the skeptical handicapper berry meadow in a few minutes stay with us back after this with Steve Vic on Sirius. XM Radio Amazing achievements Pennsylvania Bridge on the world stage thanks to find sitting unique Bella and Shamrock rose not a joins Kentucky as the only state in the past decade to breed eclipse award champions three straight years add that to our unmatched incentives plus our Racehorse Development Fund can only be used to support. 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The University of Louisville has a legacy of excellence for more than twenty five years of equine business education education classes are taught by industry experts in state of the art facilities located in the heartland of America's Equine Industry the University of Louisville Equine Business program when it comes to horses we mean business for More Information Visit Business Dot Louisville Dot. Edu Slash equal. Why is accreditation important in aftercare thoroughbred after Carolina's standard of accreditation and GRANDPA's provide donors with confidence that their contributions are allocated in the most effective manner? Ta Accreditation is only awarded after a complete review of an organization aftercare cannot be an afterthought for the industry to learn more or support port. Ta's mission visit Thurber after care dot org now back to at the races with Steve BIC on on Sirius Xm radio his around around thirty Rolls Lousy is they want to roll this. They can't it can't hurt you back at the races about twenty five minutes to fill out in this half hour and we'll do it with Berry Beto in just a minute I wanted to however spend a couple AH minutes wishing everybody the best of luck because I know at the end of the show will end up jammed up at the top the top of the hour and I won't get to it but we've we've had so much fun with the beat big challenge and this was floated to me. I don't know maybe two three years ago even by Kief shambling and Michelle Raven and craft and we finally we kept threatening to do it and it's been just so much fun and we had the seven weeks of of qualifiers and we got a big roster almost a thousand people playing tomorrow and a lot of you have have as many as three entries and you know even if you got just one some cases one might be plenty. won't be surprised if you get a winter who only had one entry and the the the whole layout the the whole template is up complete now and you all should have gotten a an email from holly short and the fact the our friend Dan Heart mentioned that he was having trouble finding it ended up in his it is bulk mail so if you don't see it if you had a midweek basically it went out and so you should have gotten it by now and the look in your bulk and junk mail folders just in case the PP's by Akwa base available and I've got a I've got. I've got an entry but I'm going to certainly make selections to here's the sequence. If you haven't had a chance to start the handicap yet it is tricky. got to tell you right now. From what I could tell I went through the races that we weren't going to be talking about on air. We'd would we did the stakes obviously but there's four racists from Laurel and it starts with racists six seven three forty pm is I post and it goes for three hours basically to the woodbine eleventh which is at six forty seven so you got pretty much. you know the the regular afternoon ship for those either play on Saturdays a one mile second level allowance at Laurel. That's got a you you know a nice big full field and I think the east coast weather looks good so starts out with this group going by on the grass then it comes back with a six prolong turf sprint second level allowance again or thirty thirty five thousand and virtually everybody I think is isn't allow it source there. There are no there aren't a horse who cleared the condition in this group. This is a nice field. Then the scene shifts to Monmouth the eighth race at Monmouth twelve five claimer going long on the grass and you gotta again almost all full fields. There's a couple of spots where you get a little breather you know in terms of the slightly smaller and this group at monmouth leads into the Belmont eighth which is a starter allowance go along on the grass for fillies. You'll see a lot of familiar out of familiar horses in here at Saratoga Belmont that back to Monmouth for a second Second Level Allowance Jersey breads. Everybody's favourite Jersey breath this is one of the smaller fields seven Horsfield and and you do have a two one favourite in here for Kelly Breen actually three two favorite should save Jose Delgado off the claim and then end the two to one Kelly Breen Second Choice Belmont State bread allowance short on the dirt. This is a seven Horsfield so you get a bit of a break and then you get steaks pairing. We go to woodbine right for the mile. We talked about it plenty than to back to Belmont for the pebbles. I think I skipped word Laura Race in here. That should have gone. There's a laurel tense in eleven. Where's the there it is? Laurel is a one mile claimer going the the the one turn mile at Laurel then it finishes up after the pebbles you got Bayden sixteens. The only maiden race in the sequence the maiden sixteens means go to mile and a sixteenth on the grass and everybody has started so you don't have any first timers to have to figure out and then the sequence everything finishes up with Belmont and Woodbine eleventh the Belmont eleventh is six furlong thirty thousand nine winter's too and then that money allowance that I asked Ron Gear kink about six long money allowance on the grass for the boys at Woodbine so there's the twelve races and I wish everybody best of luck. I can't wait. It's a follow this and and play along and then celebrate with somebody who's go to vegas out of it and I wanNA thank Holly Short and Michelle Rave Craft to have administered it and everybody that that participated so should be a Lotta Fun the Big Challenge Championship. I love it. happy to get back with us as well and we. I don't know if we have very yet do we. I guess not all right so let's get berry going and we'll close out the morning. Get you into the weekend which I think you know I did not really check. really did not check weather wise and I. There's obviously plenty of plenty of grass racing but I don't. I don't think we've got any issues tomorrow no New York twenty percent down to let's take a look at at Bwi twenty percent now we're we're. I think we're in good shape. Ron said they're they're good at Woodbine and Bama th so we should be. We should be good if the rain's GonNa come on Sunday because we've got carlisle bell in as a MTO. I wouldn't mind that if she could run out Sunday. That'd be okay. Let Me let me give Deja. Handier Deja do have a second I do have a second number if that one if you're we're having trouble with that that might be my fault. I may have given you the wrong number for for Berry the eight Oh five if you've got it yeah. I think that's the yeah I think that's the one the one you want here. I'll send it to you. Try that if you don't have it all right all right well for those of you. Ah that missed any of I think we've had at least two maybe even three conversations this year with Berry Peto about his new book and AH THE WHEN I say new book there virtually isn't anybody out there who hasn't read money secrets at the racetrack which was something of a pamphlet. It's it's sort of the making making very meadow the Thomas Paine of it's kind pamphleteer money secrets at the racetrack and it it has stood the test of time and then in fact when when we had berry on earlier in the year to talk about the skeptical handicapper it was really one of the questions and I'm going to reiterate it to berry because you know he had written a lot of articles since money secrets at the racetrack but he hadn't it a put everything together in a in in a new publishing effort and very meadow joins us again at very good morning great great to get you back on and remind everybody I mean what prompted you to go to the well and to really start the churn out chapters again after such a long really long stretch after money secrets at the racetrack secrets at the racetrack came in nineteen nineteen eighty eight and I spent twenty three years gambling full-time on the bridge so I was pretty busy because when you're gambling fulltime I'm you're up early in the morning. You're checking scratches making adjustments. You're watching all the races all day and night you working on your numbers and working on your trainer. Stats can watch all the replays so I didn't have a lot of time once I retired. I I like to write a book about handicapping just betting and the kind of book I one of the right it would be based on data and that's just my opinion. That's just my experience I'd rather look at the results of hundred thousand races rather than just three minutes. I made on some dangle so it was a break in between I'm happy I reckon I'm happy I came out with well. You know more and more people we'll have I've I've seen more and more feedback about the book for people and you know it it it. It's intense. I mean let let's not pretend that the way you approach things is not exceedingly thorough and and intensive and considering what you did here using data and and really doing a lot of number crunching the kind of unearth you know new ways to approach the game talk a little bit about about about how you even when a when about the the number crunching well I worked with ten mass who has handicapping technology and research. He's been at fair-way emily researcher for many many years and what we would do is we'd disable this angle. What's the best way that we can check it will every erase in North America ten thousand fourteen in two thousand seventeen hundred sixty eight thousand races and we looked at a lot of different things and we came up with a the usual conclusion because we had data? Let me just give you a one off the top orchestras that race less than ten days ago race person ten thousand dollars or more quickly turning. Some people say it's bad worse back into competition other say it's good because you must be in short form well L. Let's check it. We looked at many thousands of racists. We found thirty eight hundred races. We're always won. His last race came back and less than ten days for that who I mentioned purse and these return lane the chance per dollar. That's an amazing record. Considering there was no handicap at all. They won their last race whereas the tennis court what they're wars it was forty one cents dollar per hour and that was based on twenty four thousand races so these are the kinds of things it's very difficult for an individual forget unless you've done the research and that's what we decided to do look at many factors like this talked to that this has been one of the challenges for us in these in these conversations has been how much how much is out there how much information and how many angles and things but from an approach standpoint you bring up you bring up the Roi what from your own playing experience Berry and approach to the game you. How does that fit in? We look at we look at stats. It's so often and a lot of ways we we constantly talk about well so and so's got a positive. Roi And he's got Oh you know he's got a whatever percentage it might be. you know let's say a percentage above the trainers day in day out win percentage adage be what what should we as players key in on in in that equation the percentage the Roi why beware to those stats fit well it depends how many raises you looking at a criminal. Has I wanNA climb starts in particular category. Hateful goes I'm on me has worn forty seven dollars over the course ran the money well. He's got a positive or a wife and maybe be a guy to follow and so it's the combination of Roi and number of scarves second third diploid Virginia's one win but he has ten seconds and ten thirds maybe he's just unlucky on the other end of. US Ten wins and no seconds of note there Mickey one six photos by knows so there's other factors to look at onto remember. The trainers keep changing getting bigger as a quality of interest local and the quality of owners they had changes interesting. I'd top within something might have worked fifteen years. Ago May not be working today. So that's why we try to have latest stats and everything you're not gonNa make money by playing anything anything blindly but what you GonNa do you start off with knowing what works and what doesn't you can integrate handicapping into it and probably are on this is this is esoteric and probably a little tough to define fine but for for slightly inexperienced players and players who were just formulating their approach to to horseplay what what can make it easier for them to to key in on Berry if you if you understand the you know the sort of general nature of the question if there was a a priority priority list what should a neophyte start out what should they should. They feel comfortable about early in their development as a player well I think when you're first starting you have to learn the obvious packers the trainers jockeys what's escape figuring. How are they produced? What's it's a crash that I could earnings per start any measure? That was his best last race things like that. Once you learn those things then it becomes looking for stuff. That's not so obvious because you're not gonNA make money. Following the obvious fact is you're GONNA make money by building deeply into certain factors and by giving something the public is not doing and the approach is different. If you're a casual player goes to once a week you got one hundred dollars new pocket and you. I want to play every race versus somebody that wants to do this reliving the more serious about the game the more you have to do certain things that you were not going to do when you're a casual the player for example every single we play at northern and southern California every single day for twenty three years. The reason is by watching replays. He plays you learn things not so obvious in the chart I if you can figure the probable pace of a race you're way ahead of people dislike. I think so this regression you have to learn the obvious and once you've known the obvious then you're gonNA look at certain factors a little bit more carefully because you realize if you look at things exactly the way everybody else does. You're not gonNA make money. If you look at it different way now you have a chance to make money well and that's really part of the answer or or part of the framework that I I was thinking about which is those kinds of statistics that we see in in uh in whatever PP's we use those are generally you know being seen by everybody. So how do we develop a counter measure a counter intuitive approach to what we know. The public is seeing verses identifying abetting Opportunity Rover public might see something but may not take it seriously for example our research found that workout you're extremely important with inexperienced horses then that's so important with seven-year-olds racing inch clamours but they own import for just starting the corridors consistent escape the workout the distance how regular work and things like that so even though they're in the form of players don't look at them too seriously they figure I can see the workout so much so that would be one factor uh trying to figure out the probable pay the race is something that's difficult for a Lotta people they. They don't understand why horses win and I want you understand that it's a lot of handicapped as runs fine horses that might be good prizes because maybe Gore's hasn't gotten situation situation last raises the public forget about him now drugs into race where everything lines up for him. He's got the right distance. She has a good post his opposition. It is the styles and their race. are not the same as his racing style and so he opened overcome the fact that he may have bad numbers eventually when you're going to make some money looking at stuff it's jeopardy. I'll give you another example of something we found which is simple but the Bouma doesn't even look at it we looked at every single turf sprint nearly ten thousand of them in the forty year period and if you do that were the offenses first-quarter anywhere cleaners best performance in seven starts back then Warsaw recourse over the ten thousand racists and Anti Euro handicapping happen so that's the sort of stuff the night already did canaanite discover for the book is stuff that you can use when you're handicapping not just during like everybody else does us but chronic dive a little bit deeper into why is winning races not just what numbers they run and that that is something something that that you stress and in skeptical Andy Capper it it really becomes I think with any like with any of the the important horse play written works. It's a question of gleaning the the concepts but then being able to incorporate it into your own play because nobody nobody is is well served you know trying to just branch out even even if you're only a marginally successful player you you can't just overhaul your your game. I mean you have to you have to take what you know no and then incorporate the new information and you talk about adjusting Berry I mean this is difficult an era even with all the tools that we have as players we're we're still fighting uphill battle between the computer groups and the edge that they have and then just what take out even before we we play bet one you know you've already got a gigantic pantic hurdle so my question is how do you suggest players. Take the the kind of ideas that you can on earth I and incorporated into their play well. I think I always have to start with facts unless you have the facts then you start making decisions what things are important in order not and then when you look at the O. Handicapping Books People's opinions or they we had a stock race informs options. It'll it'll research but check one hundred races. You might get any possible result. We looked at one hundred sixty eight thousand racist and we discovered things things that the contradict when a lot of people believe for example if a room to talk how likely is it to raise next time that very three quarters of the time is number decline of so if you're just been in his last race which was the latest harbormaster very good bet that would be the kind of happy might WanNa say such a big race equally will run as well next time people like class drops jockeys which is so we looked at many Macau's wounds and racists where horses droppings last and switched to Jackie with more than twenty percents from last year and you got twenty percent lower but you ended up losing seventeen percent on your money so I have dealt with the fact once once you've got that for the weaknesses that the public does the public this week in certain areas. They don't spend a lot of time watching replaced they don't understand and look at warm-ups in lately allies work much of that pedigree they claim is one percents into the details of AH training who cares. It's maybe some training young drops awards in class trying to get rid of him others. You're looking for the win they don't understand bodyline which there's a lot of stuff is not so good at and that's one's year win trying to find out who has the fastest Pinkney last races cub lance raise kind of a waste of time because awnings Justin who goes very he as a stack of his last race at higher what happens too much time out well if he was three to four percent it he was eight to one or more he the one four percent. The public knows how to find these sources so instead loan for something. The public is not so that I don't have time for it today but I what we when we visit next I want you to talk about going against a and picking areas where players have a level playing field versus the computer groups in particular. I know I brought this up with you in the past but we I want you to give a dissertation on it because it's certainly an area that in your career as a player you've seen the advent but let me finish with one simple question the you find and and have you found very that there are a specific set of conditions editions whether it's distance surface circuit where the most glaring opportunities present themselves most regularly really funny one time between the asked me when the first printing synthetic tracks he said well as a horse player that can make a difference not we know just put something out there and off beat it mainly have to stretch your own youkilis circuit because you're traveling with different advancing differences short compositions different prefer a simple purpose some trainers prepare for certain meat and don't prepare so much other meat which uses preps you have to understand in your local horse population your local trainer population and when you do that you really have an advantage over the computer which I thought that a few months ago ring rain one of those James Groups I asked him is a learn player can can do well even today actual because we're trying to get as much money ah down as possible we hear the indepth dies in individual player Moses on circuit so it also started learning everything you can about here own track according to we're back bending over track in the country. I I agree. I mean I'm willing to play different circuits just because I it it's sort of part of what goes on the show today we're talking about woodbine tomorrow and and church is going to start tomorrow. I played the the Saturdays of Kentucky downs because we were talking about it but generally I mean I. I'm most comfortable when I'm you know when I'm playing New York on a regular basis and until this past winter Santa Anita of an and before that Hollywood but I ah it it does feel like your best served you know getting immersed in in one one circuit or or in a region of the country autry where horses may overlap quite a bit and just you know being very focused and being able to follow horses and and you talk about doing the work replays well. That's going to lend itself to betting turf races where the most bad trips are at surfaces interpreters if you don't watch replays what chance do you have really because turf rates is generally speaking brunch where dirt roses the winners went win by a lot more on we had a physics book about this. a bad trip makes pick you consider race and the bad trip might consist of how wide visit horse what was the patient in the race win is down. I'm grounded you save. Those are all very very important thing chirp chirp pans. You've got to allow the harnessed handicapping together needs to do. I would always look for trips favoring horses. Maybe didn't get the best trips but it was not obviously a bad chip like he wasn't blocked and he was raging and with a lot of speed he wanted to get out and he couldn't well. Everybody sees bad. You're looking for things a lot more subtle than that for example half of the recent for my wife on the charity I say how why was he doing and his wife moved just kind of floating out there and observations nations muse always the best way to learn that stuff in the mortgage observe and the federal government the more you understand why horses winning Lewis once you understand that you'll be able to put them in the context of today's raises and decide that this defender sponsor them or worse by it's always a good spot when we've got buried meadow to talk to T. R. Publishing Dot Com if you wanNA order direct from Berry and I bet he would even autograph it for you and Amazon everywhere else the skeptical handicapper and great to get very back in for the fall and we'll get the more regular conversations again berry. Thank you authorized authorized joining very Beto one of the great handicapping and playing minds. He said he wanted to

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