37 Burst results for "greenspan"
Fresh update on "greenspan" discussed on Biz Talk Radio Show
"First time, um, just had on Mitch Rochelle from macro trend advisers. And you know, he's telling me he's a little wheel it weary of the dollar. Um, not as you know, institutionally interested in alternative assets like Crypto currency. Where do you think the extreme value is right now in a Joe Biden administration? Well, attractive. Extreme value opportunities are really, really hard to find really hard. The most extreme value is just the office stock market into extremely expensive. That's to me. That's where I don't even care that fine. Got elected versus Trump. It wouldn't matter does not work. It is so expensive that I think some volatilities this year until it becomes a better bargain is inevitable. No, I won't be right. I have been my career background on Wall Street before I started pouring into television was around short selling. So I've always been a contrarian I look for, you know, ultra overvalue situations and I feel like right now in the market As soon as I get a handle on where Joe Biden spending in policy is gonna go It's gonna be a significant amount of value in for those who understand it, and it's suitable for them. Maybe shorting stocks, single stocks. Really? It's very difficult. It's a good thing. You've got a background in it because you know it's not for the it's not for the average investor very difficult, especially In times like this, you know, to say that we're in a bubble is valuable. It's valuable to know the environment. But you and I both know this could go on for years, right? Greenspan said. The words irrational exuberance in 1996. Pitching in districts and then he's all four years of the market going up 20% in here and inflate it into what was then the biggest equity problem that had ever existed. So You know, you really do have to be careful. You gotta wait till this thing starts rolling over. I think before you get too aggressive on the short side shorts. Well, look, it's tricky. I don't advocate for any of my viewers to get into shorting without a significant amount of education. I remind them all the time that there's no predefined downside. You could lose everything and more. Because technically you can go to Infinity Diddy upside, But you know, back last year towards the end of January February when they start talking about this stuff. Got even though the market was raging and I love trumps economy. I started getting short, like Simon Property Group. Brookfield Management, Indoor Mall owners, AMC theaters, Gap stores. You know all companies that were Havel doodily duty reliant on indoor you no foot traffic and stuff like that, and retail on gap in particular is almost bankrupt the number of times before that. Even though they're all recovering. Now, this still devastatingly lower than where they were a year ago. Right and the fundamentals were against him to begin with, right? Pandemic or not. The fundamentals have been against them for some time, so yeah, no. That's what I'm saying. Most of these companies pre pandemic we're getting slaughtered. Certainly AMC theaters Because Netflix is picking up you know, millions of people a month would never going on movie theater again. And I was saying back then my friends say, and now you're crazy. They're gonna get a bailout. They got big lobbyists and I was saying, Listen, people used to get mad before pandemic. If you coughed in a movie did to imagine if you call for the movie did And now you're clear the place. You know, um so I know that's not for everyone, but I do talk about it from time to time. Try to encourage people to educate themselves on it because it's a tool. I hate to say it, but it's like a 1% club, right? It's Wall Street's dirty little secret that they don't want the retail investors to know about shorting cause Then that sucks up the supply of Bara bull securities for them and their friends in the hedge fund. So you know what kind of not in on the joke most people Right. You know, that's true. So tell me about the stands. Very podcast. What do you guys cover on then? How come people find it? You can find you an investor our dot com and free podcast once a week. And we're doing their new every week. We try to find a better meet some of the market wizards traders. We've interviewed Ron Paul and John Stossel. We've interviewed authors like Matt Ridley, the science author, Reinterview PD magazine last week. The health and exercise guru. Well, that's a different folks who have something valuable to share mostly about investment. Overwhelmingly about investing 50, Andy, uh, read the mail bag, which is very interesting every week. All right, well, I got to check it out. I would encourage you guys out there to go check out. Investor our dot com and get some free knowledge from Dan Farris and his guests that week, and if you want to do an hour on short selling.
Fresh update on "greenspan" discussed on CRUSADE Channel Previews
"I'm gonna do my this day in money history inside a financial weather report. How do you like that. I'm changing it up a little bit. This is called a tale of two january twentieth ths so january twentieth nineteen ninety nine. That's when we actually had some semblance of rationality still parading around in the universe. There were there were people who had gray matter. That functioned there. There were there were guys who said things that actually might come true because they were based in reality but listen. Listen to this january twentieth. Ninety-nine them it gives the other january twentieth in a minute january twentieth nineteen ninety nine federal reserve chairman. Alan greenspan testified to the house ways and means committee that there is a possibility close quote. The stocks will quote have difficulty. Close quote sustaining. Their recent returns and that investors are expecting substantially greater growth in profits than has been experienced of late so now they can make fun of him in this. Little article was reading because they say. Oh the the nasdaq then jumped seven point three two points so so greenspan was all wet. No this is nineteen thousand. Nine hundred What was the date. January nineteen ninety nine. It wasn't until the end that year that we had the giant tech bubble burst and we lost a whole bunch of money through nine nine and twenty and the year two thousand. So i was living through that i remember. It had lots of clients who were complaining about it and They'd gone all in on the tech thing i said. Well you got hit by the tech wreck good for you anyway. Greenspan kind of saw it coming early as january twenty nine ninety nine now. What's the other january twentieth. My tail of to january twentieth. This is from today's news january twentieth. Twenty twenty one. Here's the headline stock market today. Investors cheer yellen remarks on stimulus and taxes. Pseudo president-elect biden's vp pick for treasury secretary sets a market-friendly tone congressional hearing now. Why wait president-elect. Probably how about this. How about president direct mean. We were directed to have his president. How about how about president Iraq's long standing he's standing there and He's the president because he's the one standing there. We ended up with all kinds of names. But let's just we'll just call him. Fake president elect right now. I guess i'd be good enough. Joe biden's pick for treasury secretary sets a market-friendly tone and congressional hearing lifting investors spirits. Listen this the former federal reserve chair. Janet yellen urge listeners there to act swiftly and strongly on additional covid nineteen eight saying quote. The smartest thing we can do is act big. Okay now. i'm sorry but you compare that. To what greenspan greenspan was talking about. Reality i would have big greenspan fan. It is early green bay reality. He's giving you data. He gave you details. You know They're going to have lower profits. We're going to have difficulty. Achieving recent returns on and on and on right so he's actually in knowing greenspan he probably had a book about four inches thick. That supported all the surgeons. He's making so now. The treasury secretary says the smartest thing we can do is act big..
Monetary & Political Update
"What is your opinion of like all of the latest sort of academic econometrics models? You know the Alan Greenspan productivity norm type models. What do they do for us like during this time? Because if you really just look at how these major swings in the economy happen, they happen. You know every ten years or five ten years. Everybody always says they're completely unexpected. We didn't know enough. We didn't prepare enough. We should do more. We should tweak our models more and in the same thing happens the next five to ten years so. What in your opinion is the point of All of these models and a of metric stuff that economists dude did it help us during this crisis? Will it ever help us? No, I don't think it. Help US I think. Perhaps there they're just. A way to make the economist few more comfortable, regarding the uncertainty of the future on. Maybe they'll feel more at ease regarding their inability to understand what is going on in the economy, I mean if you look at the forecast by the Federal Reserve System and the feds they employ if I'm not mistaken over five hundred economists and mostly PhD's and have they predicted the what happened in two, thousand eight. No, they did not predict that. Did they predict what happened now? No, of course not and. The situation we have. Currently is not only a matter of economic savvy business cycle swings of the business activity. Of course we do have the pandemic. This has had a major. Force in the crisis at least as the main trigger for the crisis, but why? Why always tried to pinpoint is that the economy was already fragile, so you could see from a whole list of financial indicators. Economic Indicators. The American economy is the global economy was not on a sound footing, so the fragility was. There you could see anything that could be. Trigger might have the effect of precipitating an economic crisis that could in turn lead to a financial crisis. Ex exactly as has happened in the last three to four months so I don't think economic models can do any kind of job in predicting what's going to happen? Economists try to. To Understand reality to understand how the world works, and through this econometric models, which some of them are very sophisticated, they think. By doing this. Different models with a lot of different variables they can have a more sophisticated model that that can provide them with more knowledge, regarding the future, but it just can't. It's impossible to model reality. It's impossible to model the world, and it's impossible to predict what's going to happen, but you can at least assess the the underlying state of the economy of markets, and this is something that I think. Mostly Austrian it tastes have done pretty nicely over the last twenty thirty or forty
The Mind Financing The Future
"When powerful people use their advantage to engage in new involuntary transfers of wealth safety or freedom from those too weak to defend themselves. The winners are almost always forced to create an idealism as a cover for their siphoning in simpler terms. These idealisms are actually cover stories or bespoke fig leaves which almost exactly fit. The extraction are taking that they are tailored mask once. This is understood. We realized that to test this theory. Each wave of idealism would have to be matched to a highly specific effective confession for an injustice that pervaded the era in which it was found. This concept of idealism as disguising theft is of course an upsetting cognitive shift get is therefore naturally initially difficult to come to see the waves of idealism that characterized each era that we have lived through not as the best of our aspirations for a better world but rather as the photographic negative of the greed of our own ruling classes for example. The idealism of United States competitiveness was everywhere in the nineteen eighties and early to mid Nineteen Ninety S. At that time it seemed to be about the need for all Americans to pull together and get back into fighting shape as a country looking below the surface however it was not really about the need of managers owners and workers to pull together through shared austerity to reinvigorate American industry. Rather it was a false idealism. That instructed organized American Labor to give up hard won gains that were then not matched by comparable sacrifices from the other groups. Once the United States Labor had been sufficiently humbled in attenuated in its power by the Mid Nineteen Ninety S. The drumbeat of patriotic competitiveness gave way to the post National Davos idealism of a world without borders singing the praises of Financial Inclusion Trade Immigration and philanthropy with the Maudlin sediments of nine hundred eighty five. We are the world as its anthem. The purpose of the Post National Movement was not to include those overseas but instead to allow the wealthy of the industrialized world to break the bonds with their fellow citizens of the working class and to access cheaper labor. Pools abroad using far-flung supply chance likewise the idealism of so-called constructive engagement with governments like communist China's would be seen through this lens as the rationalization for ignoring issues of human rights and strategic risk in such a way as to benefit economically in the short-term selling out American interests in the long-term meanwhile back home in the states the techno Utopian perspective that arose dominate. The Bay area of California held. That information just wants to be free and that now. Transparency is king because privacy is dead perversely as you would expect in this theory. This hippie dippy sounding digital vision is exactly what ushered in the surveillance economy as the platforms became not windows but half silvered mirror through which the social media barons learned every intimate detail about their users. These startups turn techno behemoths. Turned the most intimate personal details of our private lives into their proprietary business. Data which was as far from free or transparent as one could possibly imagine the idealism of gender and identity to fits the exact pattern second wave feminism seemed to be about recognizing the intrinsic worth of women in the workforce but it may also be seen as an employer dream to push out the labor supply curve in such a way as to make the previous single breadwinner household require a second income just to keep pace the politics of identity which caught fire in the wake of the twenty ten. Colorado Senate upset are explained largely by economists. Pm Alana's theory. That identity is the cheapest substitute for the Labor Voting Block which demanded far more significant economic concessions. More bizarrely the strange media ritual of pointing the finger of Islamaphobia at anyone who dares ask about a mass murderer in which the killer triumphantly shouts of the hawk. Bar Emits. Bloody and sadistic mayhem may well be about protecting transfer. Payments from oil-rich monarchies while the official admonition to see the Niqab hit job burqa and clitoridectomy predominantly ethnic differences or symbols of female. Liberation is so absurd to go along way towards establishing the need for some theory. Is this to fill the space. The left-leaning idealism of making housing affordable for all that too many bad loans inflated the housing bubble while the right-leaning Ayn Rand Ian Idealism of self regulating markets practiced by Alan Greenspan allowed the banks to privatize gains while socializing the risks losses. The giving pledge to May well be an attempt to keep governments from clawing back unpaid taxes from carefully sheltered fortunes or establishing wealth and asset taxes in a period of radical inequality. In this sense it can be seen as something of a bargain if I promise to screw over my own children for charity. I hope that you will leave me alone and unquestioned to enjoy my vast and carefully sheltered wealth while I'm alive and as we have just seen with the Biden endorsements from Speaker Nancy Pelosi Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and former Senator Hillary Clinton. The metoo movement appears to be less about sexual assault and more about adding a tool for extra-judicial vigilantism which can be wielded selectively or kept sheath according to taste suffice it to say that. Hashtag believe all women has now given way to hash tag believe convenient women so you may ask. Why bring this up now? Well in my opinion what we need now is someone who is not part of any of the official idealisms. Of course that would have sounded quite weird in isolation if I had simply said that we need an anti Utopian to lead us. Wouldn't we want someone envision a dreamer doer hybrid two point the way? No we want someone who is not signed on for any of these horrible anti patriotic charades from either party. Someone who never believed in free trade free markets nationalism housing for all deregulation competitiveness etcetera etcetera. We need someone who is not closed with Jeffrey Epstein who does not possess significant financial relationships abroad. Additionally someone alienated by both the hardline pro-life pro-choice perspectives. Would be perfect for where most Americans are today since the time of Nixon. We've been in an era of predatory idealism with our best impulses used against us from both right and left. It is now time to get back to the hard work of cleaning up from two disastrous generations of failed business people politicians reporters in professors and perhaps most importantly we need to flush our dependence on near totalitarian communist China out of our system before it is too late
Suspicious Celebrity Deaths: Marilyn Monroe
"We'll start our exploration with a clip from podcast original conspiracy. Theories that discusses the media sensationalized death of actress and sex icon Marilyn Monroe nearly sixty years after her death. Monroe continues to be a pop culture icon. Monroe's private life was the subject of much Hollywood gossip in the nineteen fifties. She was involved in two highly publicized marriages and divorces and battled addiction and depression when she died of a prescription overdose in nineteen sixty two. It was ruled a suicide but many believed there was something more behind her cause of death on August fourth nineteen sixty two. Maryland spent most of the afternoon in a room after having an argument with her friend and publicist Pat Nukem in the morning nukem state at the House for the rest of the afternoon at about three or four. Pm Maryland's housekeeper. Eunice Murray called over her psychiatrist. Dr Ralph Greenspan. She claims she called him because she was troubled by Maryland's request for an oxygen treatment. Even though oxygen was a well-known hangover cure at the time Dr Green soon arrived around three or four Pat Nukem left and green spoke to Maryland in her room for about an hour. Greenspan left asking Murray to stay at Maryland's house overnight and keep an eye on her Maryland took a telephone into her room and spent the night making calls to friends and acquaintances every when she spoke to agree she didn't sound drugged or depressed and she gave no indication. She was considering suicide at around ten PM. She set the receiver down during a call and never turned around ten thirty. She made one last call to Peter. Lawford her friend. And the husband of Patricia Kennedy during the call she apparently drifted into unconsciousness and stopped responding at either midnight or three a m. She changed her story later. In the morning Eunice Murray woke up and noticed a light in Maryland's room was still on but she wasn't responding. She called Dr Green Son who broke in through the bedroom window and found Maryland lying dead clutching the telephone. Next to empty pill. Bottles of prescription sedative called NEMBUTAL and a nearly empty bottle of another sedative choral hydrate. Greenspan called Maryland's physician Dr Hyman Engelberg. Who came over and officially pronounced her dead at four. Twenty five am the police were called. Murray Greenspan and Engelberg initially told investigators Jack Clemens that Maryland's body had been found at midnight creating a four hour gap between discovering the body and calling the police that none of them could account for clemens. Was Relieve by Sergeant Marvin known who sealed up the house until the full investigative force arrived at about five thirty when the investigators questioned them later that morning. Murray Greenspan and Engelberg all changed their stories to say that Maryland's body hadn't been discovered until three a m inconsistencies in the forensic evidence and the witnesses stories. Baffled the police but it did appear to be a suicide so they held off on opening an official investigation until the coroner confirmed the cause of death. The coroner's investigation went on for less than a week during which they interviewed. None of the key witnesses except for Maryland psychoanalyst. Dr Ralph Greenspan after speaking with Dr Greenspan the deputy. Da Leading the investigation said. He was completely convinced that. Maryland's death was not a suicide. The medical examiner's performing the autopsy also believed the death couldn't have been a suicide but despite those findings the coroner officially ruled the cause of death as a probable suicide over the past five decades. Even more evidence has emerged to suggest that Marilyn's death was not in fact a suicide. There have been repeated calls to reopen the investigation into Maryland's death some as recent as two thousand two should not be a close case. It should be an open case by the. Da There's too much too. Many people too much overwhelming evidence that proves that this was not a suicide and I think that Maryland needs closure the difficulty with finding the truth. Is that nearly all the key? Figures involved in Maryland's death are now dead themselves and the statements they gave during their lifetimes were often contradictory. Many of the witnesses who have spoken out against the official story have been discredited as liars fame seekers and conspiracy theorists despite evidence that they might be telling the truth and many of the people who upheld the official story had their own hidden agendas. It was in their best interest to end the inquiry into Maryland's death as quickly as possible
U.S. stocks shrug off trade deal concerns, close higher
"It is the record rally that just keeps on running stocks touching new all time highs again today but our next guest says you should probably enjoy the good times while they last because they won't offspring and northbound traders spent Henrik who stayed up late for US overseas then and we do appreciate it. I mean you and I have talked a lot about this worldwide exchange of the programs. This is as the market whether you want to call it the Fed steroid or whatever it might be. Just won't quit anything in the charge that you see that indicate to you. This thing is about ready to roll over not about my charter. Actually on on massive sell but the liquidity momentum is extremely strong. And it's it's like the Fed has been playing secret Santa all year long handing out gifts of asset price inflation and the big issue for me is what I what I see here in the macro context first of all is to say that two thousand nineteen has been read revelation Central banks cannot extract themselves from the monetary easing being monstrosity. They've created two thousand. Eighteen was the only year since the financial crisis with central banks actually reduced liquidity on the net basis and immediately blew up in everybody's face and so two solution in two thousand nineteen was go right back into adding liquidity with obviously global rate cuts everywhere aware and then the addition of Qe and not itself. So we're we're basically stock where we're exiting this decade the same way we entered it kicking and screaming with trillion dollar deficits massive central bank intervention load to negative rates. And absolutely no iota of vision on how we're are ever going to raise rates again or reduce balance-sheets because they all going into twenty twenty just pressing the pedal to the metal. So the question is what's the endgame amy old admittedly and and what we see is there's no bull market without central bank intervention and that's the big challenge for the for the next decade but there there is central bank intervention. So I I assume the bull market could keep going. I mean it's hard to believe spend but twenty years ago. I was in this building reporting on sort of the Nasdaq boom in the Internet. Boom is there anything anything when you look at the charts and not trying to spook anybody here but when you look in the charts. Is there anything technically or in the policy construct or whatever that resembles ninety nine. Well actually. This is really interesting. What's happening this year? Keep in mind. When when the Fed we have to divide the year into two parts the the first nine months and the last three months the first nine months was all about you know ending? The quantitative tightening and Unin became about rate cuts to cut defense out of cut rates three times seventy five basis points but then. Everything changed in October. When the Fed was forced to respond to the overnight rate issue the the report crisis in September and basically in October the Fed went wild they're adding balance-sheet and liquidity? At a rate we've not seen since the two thousand nine in crisis so basically acting like this big crisis underneath what's happening with all this liquidity. It's it's accelerated markets higher and brought a lot of sectors stop were struggling beforehand. What's really interesting here is that this is Kinda the same as construct We saw nine hundred ninety nine. Remember nine thousand nine hundred eight. We had a a twenty percent. Correction the Fed. Cut Seventy five basis points. We had the big rally in one thousand nine hundred nine but it didn't really kick off until until Alan Greenspan span came in late in the year of nineteen ninety nine and added a bunch of liquidity in anticipation of the White UK crisis and that lifted markets of dramatically and then ended up topping in March of two thousand the extended all this liquidity added. Here is artificial and has to be pulled back back. Markets maybe overshooting real quick though. Is this inflation. Or we having reflation trade or we having ultimately setting up for deflation sounds to me like a bubble that bursts that still gets us back to deflation even though always going higher copper is going higher etc.. You know it's interesting I. I'm looking at some big structural charts like gold gold as a big bowl flag on it. Petit has a bull flag on it. And if you look at a actually the the rate action here in in Q.. Four it hasn't confirmed this rally at all in bear flag so we've yet to see the Rian flation evidence in terms of the Bond Market Henrik north man trader raiders spend. We have pre. Listen I. It's been you've been strong and on this market. I know it's been a tough market if you've been short but you've you've come out and you've been honest about the calls and and where you feel about it so it's been Henrik. We do appreciate you coming on. Thanks for staying late overseas. We'll see again appreciate that. Thanks Brian. Listen guys I think spend take some heat because they'll say I'm negative. Negative given the market has gone up. But what he's saying is if and win the Fed ever pulls back Right at this market is going to. That's is exactly right. And his point that central banks tried to do that in two thousand eighteen and it led to twenty nine. Thousand nine is a scary tale. It's just it's a cautionary because eventually we are going to get back where we have to removed that liquid it is. It is interesting that when you start to see what everyone's judging this on rates and rates alone start to look at balance sheets where qt was ineffective. The same result is raising rates at every meeting and now Q. E. adding in the same results as cutting so they're not doing anything to rates. They're actually cutting rates by proxy through through their people people. Come up they probably come to you guys all the time and they say why isn't impeachment affecting the market you know why because impeachment whoever's in sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue you can't compete with a trillion dollars in central bank liquidity.
Data reaffirms expectation for a slowing in consumer spending
"More we are so lucky to have Danielle DiMartino both in the studio with us here chief executive officer and chief strategist of quill intelligence also a Bloomberg opinion column as a former fed employee in Dallas and you know I really want to focus on the consumer we got a number of data today I got a point consumer spending came in lower than expected and the Bloomberg consumer comfort index plunged the most on a weekly basis in eighteen years in eight years and yet Jake how this put all of his eggs in the one basket of saying we're not going to cut rates as long as the consumer hangs in there it's a big bet on his part I mean he really really is not diversifying fed policy let's put it that way all right so I take it just from that come along that you think that the fed you becoming more it's not so much the rate will look the economy is slowing and it gets tiresome to listen to these press conferences when Jay pals clearly in denial yes interest rate sensitive sectors actually let's just say sector because autos really haven't budged in fact auto buying intentions in the latest consumer confidence data are crashing so the only thing the only needle that's been moved by these rate cuts in housing that's it and and we're seeing as I was as I was just thinking least worst we saw in the bank earnings reports that the credit card spending rates have been coming down revolving credit has been a tremendous support for consumer spending we're seeing the saving rate take up we saw that this morning it took up to eight point three percent consumers are clearly battening down the hatches were seen deposits cash savings increase as well so I think the consumer senses that there's something amiss but again that's where Jay pals got all of his bass all right there are two questions implicit here first question well cutting rates actually encourage consumers to spend more no there it it's it's now I I don't think it will and that you know might mean he's been very good at press conferences about drilling him on this what are these rate cuts going to do I think the rate cuts have more to do with the plumbing in the financial system because the fed is buying treasury bills like there's no tomorrow and money market funds are arbitrage in this by parking their money at the fed where they get an additional ten basis points it's boxing the fed into where they have to continue to lower rates okay the second question that I have is regarding that credit card spending is the biggest banks I read the heard on the street column in the Wall Street journal about this and it was not that it is declining it's just that the growth in the credit card revolving credit has been lower right coming down and I guess they're two ways to read this you could read this as a tempering of the economy which everyone knows that it's slowing and you could or you could look at it as out waiting consumer confidence and a sign that things are gonna turn south which is the correct read I think that consumers know that there is slowing let jobless claims of barely moved by the breath of states that have increasing jobless claims has increased from about a third it hit seventy five percent in September we're running about fifty one percent now of state in the country with rising jobless claims and to your point about growth in credit card spending slowing the average weekly earnings will get new data out tomorrow morning but in June it was running at a four percent right in September it'd take down to two point six percent that's the paycheck growth it's not so much that income is declining it's that households know that their paycheck is no longer growing at the same pace so it's it appears a chairman pal and some members of the the dovish fed if you will are thinking about it it's all about the jobs and everybody's got a job on points at its all time low briefly tell off the sidelines a lot blah blah blah blah so tomorrow what's the what do you look at the cut through the blah blah blah tomorrow the jobs number so I'll be focused tomorrow on the sectors where we're seeing job growth if you looked inside the internals of the eighty P. report yesterday one sector financials that was the only one where you saw any growth of any kind and super large companies over a thousand place otherwise you name the sector contracting and you name the size of the business seriously slowing growth so I'm going to be looking at where jobs being created we've seen in the survey we've seen in the soft data that service and employment indices have come down with in in the case of market it's a ten year low so I'll be looking to see what types of jobs are being created dig into this consumer comfort data and you will see that the highest income earners their confidence has been coming down mom at a much faster pace than the people who they employ who still have high confidence are the is the consumer a leading or lagging indicator absolutely lacking every recession like sixty three percent of post war recessions we have been in recession with with expanding consumption it is not something that you look to to see where the economy is headed it is something you look in the rear view mirror to see post facto we're cooking what did you want to hear from chairman Powell yesterday that you didn't hear I wanted to hear a lot more about the repair facility I wanted to hear a lot more about why he contends that it's not quantitative easing just because it's at the at at the short end of maturity curve I don't think there were enough questions that were asked and I think that his intent and his Cinderella wish is to have a nineteen ninety five nineteen ninety eight redox and be Alan Greenspan to where the economy just continues to expand after three rate cuts but in ninety five we were at the beginning of an economic expansion in ninety eight we had a massive hedge fund blowing up these were idiosyncratic events were not there we're deep deep deep into this economic expansion and I would have preferred to have seen a little bit more about him saying no more rate cuts but by the way QB's blasting right king of the Martinez thank you so much for joining us really helpful Daniels the CEO chief strategist of quill intelligence also a Bloomberg opinion calmest giving us her smart thoughts on what we heard yesterday from chairman Palin the fed and what we might be looking for to what we need to focus on tomorrow with the jobs number of course Bloomberg radio will cover the jobs report in full as we
NCAA to let college athletes profit from their likeness
"The state of California force their hand here and with more states incubating Lee solution now the board of governors wants to immediately begin figuring out how to update its roles change is scheduled to be complete by January Twenty Twenty one board chair Michael Drake said the decision quote we must embrace change to provide the best possible experience for college athletes additional flexibility in this area can and must continue to see what college sports is part of higher education this modernization of the future is a natural extension of the numerous steps that NCW members have taken in recent years to improve support for student athletes including full cost of attendance and guaranteed scholarships. Today I mean look you can tell from my voice is a little hard for be flawed people who are forced at knifepoint to make a change for them talking about how they're embracing change or embracing because everyone made you and by the way they spent lobby being dollars in California to try to fight this They spent money to try to prevent athletes from getting money that's how much they wanted the schools to get the keep the money that they're getting off the athletes what do you how do you feel because I'm apparently holed worked out a little bit ironic because you mentioned the cost of attendance and I just could I use that scholarships should be your compensation right but it's it's really interesting because a degree you get sometimes it's not the degree you wanted to get you know what it's like at Stanford when we're there it was work student athletes softball and basketball it was work and there are a lot of students that are your peers that are also doing work and they can profit off of their name and their likeness what Stanford it was like building up since starting businesses meanwhile we're student athletes that are pretty much working a nine to five and then on top of that going to school and then graduate and you're like okay was this the degree that I really wanted sometimes it just doesn't feel right especially when you're you know we talk about the one percent that makes big money in the NFL or the NBA or the WNBA but the ninety nine percent I think they should get a piece of the Pie as well well I mean the it's a good point you make about the degree you get because the there's a lot of things doors that are closed like you can't go study abroad you can't take after noon classes well that's when we practice you know I always remembered every year I would do an internship and we'd have to run it through the compliance office make sure that I didn't get that internship sports illustrated for women because I was a student athlete at Stanford that this wasn't an extra benefit so there's all these stupid rules that needs to go away or at least be revised but I think we're really talking about is a fundamental system change and there is so much more work to go and I'm frankly like yes there is a greeting your teeth and saying that that statement was obviously written by a highly paid political communications consultant and they did a nice job breaking it because they're embracing change because they have no choice but to embrace but one I'm just glad we're not on the court system because this could have gotten longer uglier and more expensive to where at least now the MTA says okay if we must change at least we'll be a part of it at least we will not fight it anymore and they're going to try to determine some of their own ways that they're going to change rather than have it forced upon them I mean they I think they saw the at a public opinion turning Lebron James a big part of changing that public opinion he tweeted quote it's a beautiful day for all college athletes going forward from this day on thank you guys buying me to bring more light to it I'm so proud of the team and uninterrupted bringing focus to this and to everyone who has been fighting this fight not a victory but a start he's right about that the interrupt team did a big documentary on on this that was really effective. He's been very outspoken dream on Greenspan outspoken Kevin Durant has been outspoken and when voices like that help younger the players and reach a hand up I think it makes a difference it's GonNa make a difference now in these guys actually getting compensated for some of what they earn that notoriety that they're bringing their
"greenspan" Discussed on Heartland Newsfeed Radio Network
"The bad crypto podcast is a production of bad CRYPTO LLC the content of the show the videos and the website is provided for educational informational and entertainment purposes only it's not intended to be does not constitute financial investment for trading advice of agents in consultation with the professional financial advisor please understand that the trading of bitcoins and alternative crypto currencies have potential risks involved anyone wishing to united healthcare helps connect you to care whenever you need it like video chatting with the doctor right from your phone so I don't need stitches online at C._B._S. these statements have not been evaluated by the F._D._a. this product is not intended to diagnose treat cure or prevent any disease.
"greenspan" Discussed on Heartland Newsfeed Radio Network
"This episode a bad kripo Travis broke the teaser we have today Mattie Greenspan who's the senior research analyst from Ito to talk all things trading the other one they have him listed on their website if I'm not mistaken so you know they're they're in progress work in progress no doubt unlike me I'll work in term those type of things come and go we'll never really know until until the day it strikes but the idea is that anybody with stack up those that's that's that's a really really important thing to even consider you like it probably a good idea to have some like I'm not a financial advisor said what kind of price action are we going to be looking at well it's always impossible to say I mean long term what's going to happen I mean I always stick to my my prediction which is of very rexel and I believe firmly with the ninety nine percent accuracy that bitcoin will be anywhere between one hundred dollars in a million within the next five years one hundred dollars or a million with anywhere in between twenty one hundred dollars a- At least we're not gonNA break down under a hundred dollars yeah well you know not just double down again yesterday he said fifty thousand by by the end of the year instill said a million by the end of twenty twenty on cutting off your Dick like you've already said go to get on it's what you do with it after you cut it off I mean at this point it is it even possible is there to what what percentage possibility would you say that there is if you were a bookie Okay to say that Bitcoin is GonNa hit a million before the end of twenty twenty I I checked the odds there I think ledger rex has like odds calculator I check the odds of while back was an eighty percent chance that it was not good the happen so according to the betting markets which is what you're talking about there's probably about a twenty percent chance that it's going to happen twenty percent that's still pretty high but that's according to the options markets on the Word you've on ledger exit's where you find that they have this tool where you you can say percent chance that bitcoin is going to be x price by X. Date is not always the most accurate but it's the best connection that we can get according to what people think at the moment very interesting so now you have this complete guide defend tag that's available there on E. Touro at one of the things that you said that people will understand is understanding the plague that stops investors from making money now a lot of investors and traders out there they're they're not experts at this we don't necessarily know how the markets were they just know they wanna make money so what is that plague Outta we stopped that in in what is getting in the way of people for making money burn draining I think it's it's a lot of the time it's fear but a lot of the time it's also the tools are a bit complicated Ryan people get scared when they see things like charred analysis in they're not if they're not familiar with that I mean that's why that's kind of like e- Toro's vision and has been since two thousand seven is gonNA open up the financial markets for everyone it looked a bit different in two thousand seven of course we're talking about a extreme gamification so the Toro platform was kind of a downloadable platform where we had a little bit racist I mean it was like your Uncle Sam and he was racing like a sumo wrestler like uncle Uncle Sam would be the US dollar you betting against the the end for example but these days we strive to make it as simple as possible for everybody to just get in and start to trade and I can understand for some people even that's a little bit difficult but what you can do is you can copy other people so you can see people who are doing well in their account then you can just copy there investment and I think that's an excellent way to start it's Kinda like training wheels for traders so you can get in watch what people are doing and this is the best way to learn something new so typically somebody who's been in Fintech for some time is not just in the Crypto I mean you might be in precious metals you might be looking at docs or forex were you know were else are you paying attention to right now at the moment I only have about the twelve percents the overall portfolio in crypto assets and that's that's even aggressive for some people because crypto is a very high risk asset last so I've got definitely got some currencies in some commodities some stocks there are a few investment trends that I feel that are defining our generation number one is renewable energy and at a we see that playing out on on the grand stage I mean even that video of gratitude number going viral. I think that obviously everybody had an opinion there were critics and whatnot but I think that that signed big spotlight on one of the main debates of our generation and as far as investing or investors are concerned we can actually vote for which companies we want to succeed we vote with our money it's not just about voting in many cases I believe there is a lot more room for growth and room for profit taking in renewable energy rather than old school old school oil in country right so by a nuclear reactor yeah well if you can afford one yeah sure if you WanNa make sure you to know where to place there are plenty of stocks that are dealing with solar energy wind energy things like that we've got a whole slew of Omani tomorrow that you can that you can invest I and I believe that there is a lot more room for growth there because I you know an oil let's say oil exploration or whatever they're kind of tapped out these kind of maxed out there resort verses in their stock prices are peaked so you can get a lot more returns doing some impact investing the second trend that I'm watching right now is the emergence of the marijuana industry is about to ask I was literally got a beer by the cannabis industry because it seems like it's taken off worldwide I mean is becoming it's legal in more states in America than it is not legal in now and so it seems to be taken off it's so yeah I'm really curious about this which companies are you looking at it nats particular space what are the key identifiers that you look at say I this one might be a winner down the road excellent question Travis I it just sparked my interest very recently I was in California and I'd seen the virtual revolution I grew up in California in you know scoring we'd was something completely different back then obviously now nowadays you come in you show them your ID and they just like let you in the door you know thirty strains marijuana you're like I want is that what is this yeah exactly what it is it was like it was a revolution for me and I go to Amsterdam all the time in in California's basically putting Amsterdam to shame you know they've got nuclear incidents way differ because like now it's the bar but then they but also in Europe though it's like they mix their cannabis with tobacco horrible right well this is not what I wanted that's a question right there you know there's a lot of a cannabis companies out there but people are saying screw the small companies go for big tobacco because they're the ones that are going to be putting out you know to the masses they already have the distribution channels you're shaking your head no go ahead no no no no no no no so they're they're not even looking at that right now they've Moore's that kind of own the entire production line from from harvest the countertop in just the way that I mean travis was saying it's legal now in Morrison dates the that it is not but it's still illegal at the federal level and that's the key that's why the big tobacco companies are scared to watch it right now because they they would be risking the rest of their business operations that's why those who are bold enough to take to go for it at this stage I believe that the right now other states are looking at California when young they're looking at where it's legal and they're salivating right they're looking at all of the revenues that these people are bringing in there looking at the crime that's no doubt coming down 'cause people don't have to go to a shady drug dealer to get their weed and they just they and obviously people can just drive from state to state there's no hard borders around the united states right so they have every incentive to go fully legal as well so the more states legalize it they're just gonNA put more and more pressure on the federal government to go legal once they do that just opens up a whole new stream of revenue it makes the entire industry legal that's when you know all of the big tobacco companies will start to put their foot in but I believe that some of these smaller companies are already going to have a nice foothold so crazy when you're looking at that and you go in your okay I'll have this and I'll have that in like and I'm doing the math in my head like okay that was sixty that was one hundred one hundred it's not like Oh that'll be one hundred fifty three dollars I'm like what the to the crypto game because we are back crypto were not bad cannabis but bad read ought to be the bad we'd podcast by that is that is one of the problems is that a lot lease dispensaries have just the they they're they've taken in cash money and they got an ATM machine so he's got all this cash sure would be nice the banks don't allow them to see accounts and Yup Cryptos kind of a nice thing there so maybe the thickness back to to the the business at hand and eat Toro so let's say somebody's brandon you and then they jump on tour we've got a lot of people from bad crypto already have joined eat toro what are what are some of the key things they can do right when they get started to to set them off to be successful I out of they may be research other traders that are doing great stuff what are some of those tips and tricks that folks are that are joining Toro the no to set themselves up for the biggest success yeah so it's we'd make it as simple as possible I mean on the Sidebar you can click the copy people button and it'll show you kind of the the top traders at the moment you can see people by score for example everybody has a risk score from one to ten I would say look for people that are between let's say three and five maybe six is getting a little high ten is basically somebody who's just leveraging themselves entirely the one is somebody's probably not trading very much so look so you know the kind of middle middle of the road and look for.
The Climb: Auburn Athletic Director Allen Greene
"We walk me back to reach the final hour of the program and shout out to our crew here. Uh in the last thirty minutes we have gone from being outside inside outside and inside again all all because it is summertime. No it's actually the fall but it feels like the summertime here in Auburn Alabama. Let me also welcome the Director of Athletes Alan Greenspan Alan considering. You're wearing snazzy so you're probably lucky to be inside outside one hundred degrees all day and I think I'm just going to throw all my calls away on the way home. I'm glad you've worked your weather magic. Yes nice being inside. It's great to have you in when you were introduced. not that long ago as as AH Athletic Director it was a significant moment historically and sometimes people look the other way when when we talk about the first this for the first step but I think it's also worth talking about Allen because we're what fifty the fiftieth anniversary of the integration integration of of integration in this thing and so many significant moments and there was this series that we have on Tuesday and a lot of attention has been paid to that glad that we've talked to Congress hallway other day was the first black quarterback in the SEC and he talked about the struggles even thinking about going to one school but he said coach Bryan told them Alabama may not be ready for that. These sound foreign to young people who don't know a world like that but it is. It's important to remember. It is thank you bring that up Paul. It's not lost upon me. I'm the first Black Catholic director Albany has ever had and although I see myself as just another aid like my colleagues I do have to at least understand that my skin's a little bit darker. I got a little more of a Tan than everybody else but we are celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of integration in Auburn Athletics Alexander. I'm really truly humbled to be at Auburn at this time to be able to help celebrate this milestone and so all we can we're going to celebrate the integration and it just speaks volumes in my opinion of Auburn family and gives us a chance to just celebrate something. That's really important as we move forward in our country. Particularly I remember that time. You're too young and it was difficult because coach. I said something a minute ago. You said it was politically they difficult but for him growing up on a farm. It was not difficult at all but I'm I'm interested Allen in you. Have Young children seven seven seven year old senator in you have another one to have a twelve year old son Sammy and for for for Sammy Seneca what what does this mean to them because I don't remember well about one more who's fourteen and she's a freshman. Her name is Ryan and we try to help. Educate our kids about the differences the struggles that people of color have had throughout our country and it's not just people of color but those who are in the minority of those who have had a difficult time in navigating society diety across across the world and so we it's important that they understand that will drive through Birmingham or Montgomery there's a history their job to sell them for the summer for the first time in drove over Edmund Pettus first time a couple of weeks ago and the people that were gracious incredibly emotional for me and those are just things that we have to consider remember I'm from Seattle Washington so getting in and having that experience experienced down southbound. I watched it on TV and I watched it on the Internet and so but being here at Auburn his has helped me understand the real true through hearts of people in the south and we couldn't be we couldn't be happier to be here. I remember early in my career. I became very close. Translate with Tom. Ghassem who was one of the first to to be down here and he told me the stories of some of his friends one. I think it was a trailblazer basketball that had a tough time right and it was such an education and it still is it is it is but but I again like I gotTa tell people the I've told this to our fan base Auburn family has embraced Christie myself in our kids so much more when I ever thought and it's a it's a great community to be in. We are thriving. Everyone asks all the time. How you and your family doing work great. We love it here. In the family's van been very very welcome and embrace us with open arms and things seem to be going pretty well. You can just go right down the list of Sports Baseball Paul last summer basketball on and obviously things are looking up. I I realize good so it's funny. Someone told me Stat last year we were only the fourth school in Division. One history to winnable game goes to the final four college world series and one year and I said the fourth this year and they said no the fourth the fourth ever so we had a tremendous season last year. We had a national champion. Gymnastics are women's golf team went to the final four for we've. We've had a lot of success to build on and we certainly got enough to a hot start in football this year and we're really excited about that and robs. You really excited about what the future has force the rest of this fall since our really hot button questions ask you about personnel. I do want to ask you about the student athletes of today so much going on especially with the legislation in California mark talking about that today and and you know you because you talk to athletes every single day you go to practices you. Keep up with it. What do you hear from young people about where their sports are going yeah. It's it's interesting Paul. A lot of the concern for our student athletes is mental health in time demands. Those things haven't changed. I think we're we're a little bit of a different world now where student athletes and I guess millennials so to speak haven't really had to deal with coping right and and having to figure the things on their own and so we see that and you see that in our student athletes are member about five years ago. I didn't believe that there was actually mental illness. Why can't the kids just toughened up like we and we just battled getaway but it's a different environment and so we do all that we can try to to wrap our arms around our student athletes help give give them the skills necessary to be able to to cope and go through adversity and then also certainly from a time perspective helping them understand that in order to have a great student athlete experience they have to be more than just athletes they have to be students have to engage in our campus life and try to do something that's going to push them out of their comfort zone and just get to get to experience all that their universities have to offer. I was struck. I'll tell you I had the opportunity to speak to a journalism. I was in class and I've done this before and sometimes I walked away going. I'm not really sure about today's students. Today I walked away blown away by by everything about the young people in terms of their knowledge their awareness and I just I I I'm I'm really just so thrilled in the opportunity because I sometimes we don't give enough credit and and and I'm particularly interested in the coping part. I know this sounds a little heavy for a sports show. Why do you think having played intercollegiate athletics a couple years ago a couple of why why. Why do you think it is it? Is it different than it was when I don't know that things are any well yes. It's different social media media. We didn't have email back then. I'm dating myself but so social media's out. There are students in our young people in society ninety. Today in my opinion are a lot more a lot smarter right. They have so much more information but Tom Goss said this during lunch today just because they have all the information on their phones doesn't mean they have all the answers and I think it's our responsibility as adults to help them find those answers when they have when they have some sort of a struggle Ogle to help make the decision for them but to help guide them so that they can make the most appropriate decisions and allow in this tough for us because we're in such a competitive environment armant but people need to be allowed to fail and sometimes it happens on the field of play when you don't want to but we are so interested in preventing our young people from failing because we don't want to hurt them. They're actually probably do a little bit of a disservice so trying to find those environments where they can fail or they can learn. They can grow that will help also make them better people. That's that's what we're trying to do. What I sit here and listen to this you sit in these ivory tower positions TMZ which sometimes we we are in the director and say well he he'd better view this or that because the program is not being competitive you often forget. There is a a huge underbelly of all of this so what no there's no answer to these issues but How do you work on a daily consistent basis to deal with them? You've got really deep Paul one of the things I think what our coaches do. A great job of is really getting to know our student athletes elites and getting to know them as people whether it's doing ropes courses or just having them over their house for dinner really understanding where they came from what what makes them tick what makes them what do they respond to and then more importantly. Paul I think is the coaches understanding how they coach. One of Bar Coaches Mickey Dean our softball coach was talking to us as head coaches and said he takes the test so he knows how he coaches and he also takes has as their student athletes take tests and he realizes that there's sometimes when personalities don't match up and if the student athlete doesn't either move toward the coach or the coach doesn't doesn't more to move toward the student athlete kind of there's not much of twenty four success there so I think having some self awareness really really important and those types of things that we talk talk about as as head coaches and as administrators finally what you engine to lunch what what else is on on the schedule for the for the weekend. It's been a long one. Campus is a buzz right now funny enough. I actually saw some people. They weren't tailgating yet but they were setting up. It's an o'clock this this morning to get ready to set up for their tailgate. They said they were sitting in sweating this morning but we've got a ton of dedications a couple of dedications today. We dedicated eight at our barn today which was fantastic event. WE'VE got a couple of events this this evening to honor and celebrate the fiftieth anniversary surreal integration. We're going to have a little soiree at our house this evening with some special guests are gonna come over and then we meet with recruits all day tomorrow some more more celebrations and
"greenspan" Discussed on Radio Cherry Bombe
"And now Christina. I'm so excited. Everyone came up to hear me talk. So my name's Christina I have two main interests cookies and cats and I do both for a living. I've two bakeries called macaroni parlor then there's meow Parlor New York's first cat cafe on UNAI throw the cat equivalent of this jubilee every year call Jackson galaxies cat camp. I'm a lucky person. I have a wonderful family. I have amazing easing friends. I have great employees and I've helped over five hundred cats find homes. However things weren't always this way? The loneliest period of my life was about ten years ago. I'm not sure what I was looking for when I moved to New York but I knew I was afraid to to stay in the suburbs and afraid that I would just settle as a teenager. I didn't know what settling was. I didn't know if it meant fulfilling the dreams of my immigrant parents by becoming a lawyer or if it was choosing a path because it seemed easy I don't know what are y but I had felt uneasy for very long time. So I just kept busy busy. I graduated college in three and a half years then went back to school to get an associate's and then back to school to learn how to sew instead of pursuing higher education as just signing up for school for the sake of filling my time I took internships and eventually jobs my dream companies only to look around one day Eh and wonder why didn't fit in. I'm an introvert who felt so uncomfortable in a city of eight million people that I was thinking into into myself. It was my mom who encouraged me to sign up for my first speaking class at that point. She knew I would never be a doctor or a lawyer and she a new unhappiness look like she told me that. When I was in preschool we had a weekly Bacon class and it was my favorite thing in the world? She knew I was lonely than to partly because I didn't speak a lot partly because I didn't understand what people were saying and partly because they constantly felt like other but food has no language barriers and it was my favorite part of the school week so as an adult I start to take baking classes over time late nights of anxiously waiting in for the night to end and the next workday to begin turned into our spend on the floor with my feet propped up against the oven watching breads rise cookies caramelized caramelized and magic happen. Finally something felt right. I'd spent so long chasing shadow. They never stop to look at what was in front of me that in a city with thousands of restaurants fast casual joints and cafes though the thing that made me happiest could be a career I went all in I use recession as an excuse to shrug and say the desk job wasn't going anywhere anyway. Within a year I was in pastry school met my now husband who's over there and we started macaroni parlor but anyone who has opened a business knows the first few years are still lonely. You don't have time to socialize because you're understaffed. You're afraid to step out because replaced my burn down in fifteen minutes. You're gone and you go to sleep so late that you wake up tired but that kind of loneliness didn't hurt I had a purpose and it was tangible and things felt right during this period. I didn't have many friends ends but I had the Internet I used to write about my life about owning a business and the things I was learning. I didn't write for an audience. I wrote because for the first time in a long time I'd a lot to say and so I wrote into the abyss of the Internet much to my surprise it spoke back. If you love a New York has a cat cafe it only exists because my business partner sent me a letter five years ago and I was so touched that I hired her her to work in my kitchen so one who works for me now read my blog when she was in pastry school last month someone from Australia message me to say that she thought me recently because you starting her own business. I haven't written for many years now because I'm not lonely but there are still people out there looking. It made me realize that we're all looking looking for some connection. It's what makes us alive Dory understood this years ago before we had twitter and instagram that will food is a necessity city. It's so much more than that. It's about people it's about connecting with others about memories and experiences her cookbooks were the first I had ever read included stories about a recipe thirteen cookbooks in Dory's invited people all over the world in some of the greatest kitchens and more recently into her own own kitchen. I I found through her world peace cookies name because they are good enough to bring world peace then there was Tuesdays with Dory where people connected connected with each other from their own homes by blogging recipes entire communities sprung out of doors writing and everyone who participated how their own story to tell she helped people create memories. Today we have so many more tools at our grass to allow us to stay in touch to meet new people to double tap or Swipe right right we can invite people to peek into our kitchens with photos taken on a phone or quite literally like joy invite people to cook besides us in our actual kitchen joys joys one of those people who figured out a way to combine storytelling food and the desire to connect both on and offscreen using these new tools she gets it. I wouldn't be surprised if that's helping out someone who is lonely today. Food has stories to tell people to feed look forward to listening to these women talk about their careers. Here's the human element of food and how social media has impacted the landscape from their first cookbook. Dori was one of the first people I met in the food industry three men T in a mentorship program and for years. She sent me words of encouragement. Every few months got an email from her about something she saw that she wanted to share or deceive. I was practicing self care or just to send some love. Doria was one of my first friends as an adult and she claimed she had nothing thing to teach me. She may not know this. The much of what I've learned from her has shaped entirety of my career so without off my chest. I'm so happy for everyone here to listen to the Magic to come because I know it's going to be so beautiful. The I'm going to start off my conversation with Dory today by telling her a story so I was saying in two thousand and six I was working as a baker in two bakeries. I wasn't joy the baker so it was funny that I was Baker into bakeries because I was an enthusiastic home Baker and I had finagled my way into to baking jobs because I realized that if you like to bake and you will get to work at three thirty in the morning you're hired you know so I would get to work at two thirty in the morning and start baking because a lot of times I would mess things up and have to throw them away so then at three thirty ready when real bakers came in I'd be like hey guys just starting fresh just here ready that happened a lot career and so much chocolate Mousse okay. I'll get to it training you in the speaker like coming prepared with extra black bags to throw yes yes and after I get off of work I would go home on the way home. There was a bookstore and in the bookstore was your baking from my home to yours book and I couldn't afford to buy it but I would sit in the aisle and copy down your few recipes word word for word it's no problem and then I would take the notebook to the bakery at two thirty in the morning and try some of your recipes and what was that wasn't the one that didn't work was it that you know they always and what was so wonderful to me about that book. Is that your your technique was so helpful but it was written from the perspective and from the heart of a home Baker and so I take it to this new job in in a place where I was making friends with my fear and I got so much comfort and skill from it and I bought the book I eventually could afford it. I had to save up but but the mother in me is thinking. If only I had known this I would've since you the book story they don't do that. People need to buy books so yeah so I wanted to tell you that story and then ask you you think you ask you how your kitchen journey started and what were the books that maybe you held close to your chest as you were embarking on your journey from Home Baker to professional personal home Baker to Home Baker. No I am a home home big can I just I worked with Julie. This has not answering your question but I will call okay so I had the amazing the amazing good fortune to work with Julia Child in the nineties. I wrote baking with Julia which was the book that accompanied her TV series and we shoot every day and one day Julius said I want to play Hooky. We play with me and so I had I still have a little MIATA which is like a car the size of Jelly Bean holdaway. You have Miata a red one a red one yet yeah and it's it's a convertible but Julia you couldn't you couldn't take the top down because your hair right and Julia had sized is twelve or thirteen feet and so I kind of had to plead her to get her into the carpet. This isn't this isn't the story. I want to tell you so. Julia said let's play Hooky. I Origami her into the car. Her idea of Hooky is going to the supermarket and so we're we're shopping around. She's helping people choose a good melon and at some point she turned to me and she put her arm around me. She's six tall and she said you know we make such a good team and I was really touched and she said we make a good team because his were just a couple of home bakers and even after all the Julia had done and all the Chia taught all of us. She really thought of herself as a home Baker and I have never stopped thinking of myself that I burnt my parents kitchen down when I was twelve I wasn't. I'm GonNa do this very quickly. I wasn't allowed to bay. I got married when I was nineteen. I'm still married to Michael Greenspan and I learned to cook and Bake because I I learned to cook because I had to and I learned to bake because I really wanted to and I my book the book that is tattered and has spots. I thought they were chocolate. I have no idea what they are. All over. The place is me to heater she. He was my does it. Does anybody know maybe heater so she was my hero zero. Everything I made from her books worked. Her directions. Were so precise. When I started writing about food I had made it in my my minehead she was she taught me to Bait? What is your favorite thing of hers to Bake? Do you have a favorite. She had a lemon cake in her the first book that I made for I made it every year for our son's teachers for their Christmas gift. I made it for potlucks. I made it for everything everything and when her the paperback version came out that recipe wasn't there and one book later she wrote and she said here's my revised version..
8 Things that Happen During a Recession
"GONNA talk about eight. Things usually hassle ate during recession comfy here you go number one stocks drop generally speaking the drop about start drop about six months before the recession and according to the capital group which is the folks behind the American family of funds the start to rebound about six months into recession and that they've recoup their losses over about eighteen months so usually it's. It's not too bad. the average loss during recession depends on how you look at it but it's like twenty to thirty percent some of in very shallow that said the last two recessions we experience at the dot com crash and the great recession. Those were declines a fifty percent. It took more than five years for the stock market to recover but basically this is why we always say any money you need. The next few years should not be in the stock market number. Two rates also dropped so it's already started. They could continue to go lower. The Federal Reserve is going to meet a week. Everyone expects them to drop the Fed funds rate by twenty five basis points. Maybe fifty basis points around the world. There's this is phenomenon of negative. Interest rates hasn't happened yet in America but Alan Greenspan recently just told CNBC. It's only a matter of time so rates. Could it keep dropping. What does that mean well. Ideally you could refinance your home. Get a lower mortgage. Guitar Refinance Your Car Loan Student Loan. Hopefully your credit card rates also get out so that's actually pretty good news number. Three bonds hold up depending on the bonds so generally speaking when rates go down bounds go up as we've seen that this year bonds actually made almost ten percent so far in two thousand nineteen which is a pretty extraordinary turn for bonds in two thousand eight when the S. and P. Five hundred went down thirty seven percent bonds. I went up five percent. The only thing is it does depend on the type of bonds treasuries do well corporates do generally okay but it depends on how far you go down the the credit rating. When you're looking at junk bonds they do not do so well. They lost twenty percent and two thousand eight so the more you are concerned about a recession the more you should keep your bonds to treasuries or highly rated corporates or maybe just play it safe with cash number four. The price of your house actually might go. Woah so I think a lot of us were stung by the great recession and that was really the first time when we saw a nationwide drop in home prices the truth is when you look at recessions historically home prices actually hold up well and there was a study by Mark Mark Holbert published in Market Watch we found that when when you look at the case Schiller Index of home prices that actually does better during stock bear markets than does during stock bull markets so historically in in most cases. Your House is actually a good hedge against the recession against inflation and its stock market drop however during the great recession what we saw last time that was not the case so there will always be outlived. Generally houses hold up pretty well number. Five inflation generally goes down so this is the upside of downtrodden economy economy. Prices generally do go down. So what does that mean for you well. It's actually a really good time to make a major purchase by a car. Get an appliance because all those folks out there trying to get consumers to come in and buy something so if you have the means and you're looking to make a good perk big. Purchase recession is actually a good time to do it number. Six employment goes up so according to the Washington Post the unemployment rate has risen two point four percentage points on average during the eleven recessions since World War Two so it goes up slightly but of course sometimes it could be worse. What was the worst since World War. Two was the last one the great recession unemployment went from five percent to ten percent on average. People were out of a job for six months so that's a good frame for what we talked about the Emergency Fund how much you should have and the way to prepare for this of course is to have the emergency fund but also keep your debt levels manageable because that's where people get in trouble to have high debt levels. They lose their job and they could no longer pay the mortgage or anything else so they they lose the house or they lose the car. So have the Emergency Fund and keep your debt levels manageable number. Seven employers reduce benefits so even if you are fortunate enough to remain among the working chances are something we'll get reduced. That's right. You may not get a raise. You may not get the bonus. Your 401k match might get eliminated. That's happened. Here is then the for kindly made up for it. Retroactively that usually does not happen so you'll see stuff like that. You may not have fancy holiday party at the end of the year might be in the conflicts in how we've done that too potluck instead of a fancy party downtown but so even if you do have managed to keep your job and most people will all you do have to expect that you'll probably have to tighten your belt a little bit somewhere another and number eight intersection stocks do go back up in the economy eventually eventually recovers so for those who have the cash on the sidelines and the guts buying stocks in the middle of recessions can actually be one of the best investments you ever made but you can't wait until the recession over is over because the stock market begins to recover before the overall economy but history has shown. US economy will recover you will be able to go back to the Fancy Politics Party at the hotel downtown and stocks will eventually they will recover and reach higher
What is Landscape Architecture?
"Studying landscape architecture. Is that right yeah. That's right what appeals to you about landscape architecture yeah no. I think something that appeals to me about landscape architecture is really the broad range of possibilities that come with it so i guess you could say architectures focus focus primarily on the building and landscape. It's everything outside of that in so that encompasses a lot of different types of spaces and a lot of scale space some really interested in more of the social aspect or like public spaces within the urban city. That's kind of what drew me to study landscape and under god. I was always focused on like thinking about the community people that lived around public spaces or in buildings that we we were designing for and i was really interested in thinking about okay how do people move throughout space or where do they interact and kind of like what are big places places or opportunities to engage communities more and give them access to green space clean air and other opportunities for like socialization shen yeah i think when most people think about landscape architecture they're thinking mostly about greenspan. Yeah parks up things things of that nature. I know here in atlanta. There's we have so many little just pocket parks in a way like little parks just kind of tucked in here and there i think right but now there's a proposal to build sort of part of a park over our highway over one of the highway but what are some of the other sorts of things that make up landscape architecture aside from that yeah. That's a good point. I think it's easiest to describe people like oh you know like park designed but they're actually a lot of different other types of the public spaces plazas one of the most famous places that a lot of people recognize is like the hotline so also thinking about post industrial uses uh spaces there also a lot of power and landscape where we can. We have a lot of control over sustainability so we can impact the environment in a positive way way. There are a lot of initiatives happening right now. New york to kind of protect the city against sea level rise so there are a lot of constructions happening along the the coast and we're seeing that development happened so there's a wide scale to thinking about design both on a regional scale but also they're smaller like hard scape plans and thinking about outdoor malls plazas and transportation kinda gets <unk> looped into that as well. How does transportation you looked into that yeah. I guess that is a big statement but i think now that people are kind of thinking about the future of like driverless cars i <hes> now we're thinking about how we can retake over the street for pedestrians or like. Maybe we will need as many spaces for car so i think there's a a lot of pedestrian centered ideas about read configuring street spaces or like what happens if we take away highways from you we know communities can be transformed those spaces into other types of recreational use or ecological use. I think to bypass a really big and thinking get about circulation so how do people move throughout spaces that can be both through cars <hes> through highlights through aeroplanes but also at the ground sound level like walking or biking dot space so those are factors. I think that a lot of designers try to influence into their designs but also could be it's like the highland is a completely new way of kind of moving throughout new york city so really you're. You're kind of like you have the opportunity to design on a bunch of different types of scales it sounds you can do something really small like a plaza or yeah ab- santa park but even apart can range in size from really small to like central park or something the yeah it's funny said positive because <hes> i guess for our first semester design school we had a design like from the smallest scale so like a courtyard yard and it was like teeny like enclosed space but it was really fun of what we can come up with and there were so many different ideas and it was kind of our first project and and then we ramped up in scale and thinking about boston's city hall plaza in that was like seven and a half acres and thinking about okay like this is a hard scape space like we weren't allowed to use like lawns or anything like that like it's completely like thinking about people moving freely and it had to be accessible supposed to boston's like governmental building and then our final design was ramped up in scale again and it was thinking about like waterfront design and interaction between the city city and also like recreational space say yeah. It's definitely a wide range of scales that you can design and everything in between. I'm glad you mentioned accessibility accessibility. That's been something that's been on my mind lately mostly in the web space and i'll bring this back landscape architecture so just just what would be your. I was reading this article this morning about how <hes> domino's pizza is trying to take a case all the way to the supreme court art because a customer suing them because their websites not accessible to not able to access it on a screen reader and there has been other types of lawsuits that are like this. I think there were people that were trying to sue beyond say because her website was not accessible and granted the web guidelines around accessibility normally normally tend to pertain to government sites in terms of enforceability beyond say side is not a government site. Neither domino's pizza however what i found is in the weapons that accessibility the is kind of a it's a slippery scale. Some people really adhere to others. Don't care about it at all but when it comes to landscape architecture accessibility is super important because all types of people have to move throughout spaces yeah. How do you design for physical accessibility yeah. No that's a good question and i think it varies in the designer what you're trying to achieve and some people are very much like oh. We don't want this to be accessed by like massive amounts of people like it could be very dangerous address. It could pose threats large gatherings but i think to like the more practical answers. Oh like in designing public spaces. There are laws and codes like a._d._a. Accessibility laws that you have to buy four but it's also like okay now you can accept those code standards or like how do you truly remake space open and then it raises more questions about like who is allowed in what spaces in who isn't so that got really interesting and especially in terms of the plaza plaza and how do you make a space feel comfortable for maybe a single person who's walking there or in their wheelchair and then also can the space <unk> accommodate like large art gatherings of protests like does the public have a right you know to gather and protests and speak in kind of connected large groups yeah. I don't know if that answers your question. No this is my question. It also made me think a little bit about sorta this concept that i've heard of with defensive design where sometimes certain public spaces like you say designed to keep people out yeah like for example park benches that may have a middle railing so no one can lay across them or four. Maybe low to the ground services. They'll put like little bumps or spikes on them so no one can sit comfortably on it. Yes what it reminded me that that definitely light comes up a lot in designed to in. It's like then. It gets extremely political suicide in like yeah okay. I'm just wondering design like this nice space that maybe people could have like a lunch break oregon but then i think too in the era of like public safety and security people get really like nervous about okay like who sitting sitting and lingering in these spaces and yeah. It's a fine line but i think it's also kind of exciting because you're giving a space where you would not you don't necessarily know what will happen like an park and prospect park in brooklyn. It's like a wonderful space. When i go there. I see people by gang doing tai not doing yoga with their dogs and like there's not a set like programmed area for that to happen. It kind of just is able to happen and there are like political local statements that also happened there so i think it's an exciting platform to be able to design kind of within that one thing when you when you sort of talk about spaces like this i'm thinking of how a few years ago there were a lot of public protests in the streets blocking highways and and blocking major thoroughfares thoroughfares and things like that and i know like here in atlanta for example there was a big complaints that people could walk down onto the highway. Yeah they're like oh. Why is that. Why is that possible which doesn't make sense like why wouldn't they you can drive down there. You walk down there but no it's interesting about the the sort of governance of different spaces for different types of people or even different modes of transportation. There's more that i want to dive into with the topic but i want to take it back a little bit. I'm really curious to know about more about you and how you came to be studying at harvard talking about all this stuff so where did you. Where'd you grow up yeah definitely so i was born in new jersey but i grew up my whole life and south west virginia. A little town called roanoke doc. Anybody knows it and i'm the youngest of three girls and so my mom. She's a new yorker. My dad was from chicago. They're both from big city and then when they have made they decided they wanted to move down south and kind of slow things down and so i grew up in roanoke must of my life i went to school with a lot of my friends like kindergarten through high school and even some in college. I think it was a good community where everyone was really well connected. It and everyone knew each other and so grown up in a place like that was really unique as i'm learning and then i went off to school to study architecture at the university of virginia i think tau i got there was like not a linear path at all listening like oh. How did you have it figured out yet was curious. Here is like has designed been like a big part of your childhood growing up where you're surrounded by it. Yeah i think one since i was surrounded by it i didn't really realized that until later and now like looking back. I was like oh <hes> my parents did a good job at like teaching me how to do this or that and so oh my dad did many things that he also briefly worked in furniture procurement in my mom went to fashion school for a little bit and then decided that wasn't for her but they in my grandma on my mom's side like always painted and drew and so my parents were good at like exposing me to the arts very early but i didn't realize what's that there were possible careers through design until high school and so i kind of was always interested in drawing and painting in but it was kind of like something i did just for fun and then i thought i wanted to be a doctor. I thought that was like what is going to do and i very it. Quickly realized like i don't like hospitals. I'm very scared of blood in bali fluids and so then i said oh my goodness like what am i gonna do. Who i think was like fourteen. I was like man. I just don't know what i'm going to study and my dad actually said what about architecture and then at that time i had no. I know i dea what that field was an. I was like what is this and <hes> in high school. I got to go to a couple of design camps at <hes> virginia ginny tech university. What was other school. I went to another school north carolina state university and they had like the summer design her rams that my dad found his co. You you should go in and you can kind of test and see if he liked it and so at first it was just such a different way of thinking and i was not really excited about it <hes> but then i went on to study it in college and it was very hard at first has a lot of people seal when i studied architecture but <hes> no now it turned out to be really amazing from people who have had on the show we've had a couple of of architects on before and they have always talked about i mean the difficulty of i think just yes of course learning about the subject matter but also a lot of those spaces are not super diverse and so if you're coming in there as quote unquote the other and that sort of just adds an element to the difficulty of studying and being a space like that yeah absolutely so no one in my immediate any family or anyone i knew of really studied architecture and so that was a whole new learning environment for me. I went to school in a lot of people the parents had studied architecture like they're punctual and so they were kind of already looped in the field and yeah it was very hard to understand the language <hes> just even what architecture it was <hes> it was a difficult amount of learning that you have to do a friend like learning the software but also a lot of technical skills that you need to choir but overall though what was your time at university of virginia yeah i think overall the wall. It was really great. 'cause then my first year the kind of restarted i think as my first year right before i got they restarted their no muss chapter. I know ma says the national organization
What is an inverted yield curve and what does it really mean
"What's the yield curve in version and does it mean we have to go into a recession because we don't want to right right so are you a current version means the short rate or the federal funds rate that is is or the two year rate is higher than the ten year or the thirty year upside down right the the long you take longer duration risk and you get less yield which that make any sense puppies kissing Katie's it just this is the world upside down it's pretty crazy yeah that the thirty year treasury trading at a just under two percent this week you know you can get more than that in a money market yeah that's okay well yeah I kinda like that no duration vanguard money market it to point to an Wes where we put the good save cash because I don't have any good muny sin I don't have I don't have a good place for it and I'll just keep some dry gunpowder maybe a third of the portfolio right there and that's the first investment strategy discussion if you don't like fluctuation there's there's a choice out there that's better than zero in cash one of the banks are still paying zero on big check and balance meanwhile yeah yeah you have to call them up and say Hey I get to I need to or close to it yeah and they get that for you yeah thank you we did an analysis interesting way on on the thirty year treasury yeah and currently priced at thirty two a two and a quarter percent coupon to twenty forty nine trading at about one of six and about a two percent yield okay if you get a move to zero right yeah which is that big price goes to almost one seventy I mean to make you could make sixty percent in a thirty year treasury you can make sixty percent if the thirty year went to zero and I don't know how likely that is no Greenspan as one of our headlines let me get to the Greenspan headline because that relates to it we got to skip around here to get the exact Greenspan says no barrier to prevent negative treasury yields he's never been wrong by the way Greenspan well we've all been wrong that's just part of the opportunity you get every day it's just better to admit it but he's so so what I put on that headline is is there no limit to duration stupidity now having a treasury go with the price that that makes me feel good but what happens if the yields just go back up to where they were last year all right Sir you're gonna take a twenty percent hit on Capitol for that treasury right so if you went from two to back to a three on the thirty year price goes from one of five eighty five yeah so if I put a million dollars and then I could wake up at eight hundred thousand you really good yeah yeah yeah and I would not be happy about that in a good safe treasury bond no no that's not when they when they sell you the long term government securities fund in the four one K. they don't tell you about duration risk it's not it's not explicitly spelled out like it is on the Bloomberg charts at network radio dot com right there okay so thank you for doing those charts what else did you see on those charts well if you want to get it if you if prices stayed stable how long would it take in coupon payments actually get your money back in this twenty three twenty four years twenty one time twenty three twenty four years so you could be stuck in that long term government security that's what they call it long term you could be stuck for full time if rates go back up okay just pointed out that yeah yeah so we're selling premium duration where possible and we're looking at global high yield and energy
Fed Considers Rate Cut as Political Pressure Mounts
"Now, our main story this morning, just how President Trump's repeated hectoring of the Federal Reserve has complicated interest rate decisions. Here's what the president had to say to CNBC yesterday in response to a question about whether he thought the fed had listened to him. Listen to me, and get a we have people, it's more than just Jay Powell. We have people on the fed really weren't, you know, they're not might people. So how has this changed the environment in which the fed must determine whether economic conditions warrant a rate cut are fed reporter, Nick Tim Roche has been speaking to Charlie Turner from Washington. Well, let's be up front about this Nick has any fed chief ever faced such pressure before, from a president actually, yes, you could probably say that this is something fed cheers in the postwar period, have faced, what's different about President Trump? Is that his criticism has been much more public of the fed? So just to. Go back in time in the nineteen sixties, the fed chairman by the name of William mcchesney Morgan was very unpopular with president Johnson recall Johnson was trying to boost domestic spending while fighting the Vietnam war, and he did not like the fact that the fed was raising borrowing costs to limit inflation. And so he was very critical privately of Martin. There's a story about how he pushed him up against the wall said my boys are dying in Vietnam. And you won't give me the money I need. So there is a history of presidents putting pressure usually in private on the fed chair. What's different about this president is that he does it pretty often in public via Twitter via interviews or off the cuff statements to reporters on his way to Marine One helicopter. And so it creates a perception problem for the fed because the fed doesn't want to be seen by the markets is responding to anything but the economic and financial. Data that they analyze that could change the way investors. Think about inflation, and bond yields, and so forth. You described three challenges fed chair pal is navigating at this point. What are they so the fed has to set the right interest rate of the right time? The fed has to explain clearly, what they're doing and why they're doing it, and those are two challenges that every fed leader faces, but the third one is unique as we've talked about. And that is he has to deal with this public pressure, campaign, very loud, criticism from the president something that we haven't seen since the early nineteen nineties President George Bush senior was the last president who even said publicly what he thought the fed should be doing President Clinton and his two successors Bush, and Obama maintained this rule where they were not going to comment on the fed, and Clinton's advisers convinced him. This was a good policy for them because they had seen how President Bush. This is a first President Bush had called on Greenspan to lower rates. And Greenspan didn't go along with it. And so Clinton's advisers told him, look, you really don't have anything to gain by pressuring the fed. They're going to do what they think they need to do. And you putting pressure on them isn't gonna make their life any easier. They may feel like they have to do the opposite to to, you know, to look independent so Clinton and then Bush forty three and Obama never said anything about the fed, and that was a tradition that continued up until about a year and a half into Donald Trump's presidency doesn't fed chairman pal. Face pressure to cut rates for the rest of the year, including at the June meeting. So the Fed's next meeting is in less than two weeks on June.
The Fed was unusually chatty Tuesday
"The marketplace number oh, the day this Tuesday is five five members of the Federal Reserve's open market committee. That's the one that gets to decide interest rates. Remember five of them gave public speeches today. And believe me when I tell you for the fed that has a whole lot of talking central bankers have non at least historically been the most say, what's on your mind group of people that has been changing those we've been reporting and as marketplace's Mitchell Hartman tells us today, it has potential upsides and downsides back in nineteen Ninety-six. Then fed chair Alan Greenspan, uttered, the words irrational exuberance in a speech investors thought he was saying stocks were overvalued and the market tanked, probably not what Greenspan intended. But he did want to be opaque, says economist Frederic Mishkin, who served as a fed governor in the mid. Thousands. Michigan says one time after testifying to congress. One of the congress, people said that was very clear and Alan Greenspan, said, well, then it must have been a mistake. But under the next fed chair, Ben Bernanke transparency and frequent communication became guiding principles. That's continued under his successors. If you can get the markets understand how you react to future events that can actually make things monetary policy of warfare, active. A lot of what current chairman Jerome Powell. Communicates says university of Michigan economist, Betsey Stevenson is to reassure us that the feds got. It's all on the ball and on the news. Oh, and they're aware that obviously, the trade issues had the potential to have a big impact, so they're watching it really closely chairman Powell does have to contend with one communications challenge. His predecessors didn't says, dean Baker at the center for economic and policy research, and that's a president who publicly criticizes the fed POWs going to bend over back. Quds to say, we're not gonna listen to the present telling us to lower rates not Baker says, if economic conditions warranted Powell won't hesitate to cut rates and explain exactly why.
Fed, Matthew Zeti And Arthur Burns discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"A quiet day to day, but the later on Paul Suinian this, the securities beautifully to our next guest. We have some several many in. The minutes of the fed, which I find ridiculous. And the minutes used to be used to be to try to measure Arthur burns, the what the pipe smoke said out of his pipe. And then it was Greenspan multi syllable. Speeches. And now it's some several many Matthew Zeti joins your Bank right now on the American economy. What fail you miss you do you get out of the minutes? I think the value of the minutes depends on what has happened in between the meeting and today and I think that's a particularly important for about today's minutes. The minutes will typically today should show, the fed was a little bit more optimistic on the growth fund mystic on, on trade, and in global growth. And it clearly that's become stale, given that we've had the flair trade tensions since then I think, more importantly, we'll be looking at is how they talked about the inflation dynamics outlook. Well, let me look into that in moment, but this is really important. The minutes became a joke about some several in many do they still do that to the minute still say some of our districts, several members do they still have absolutely absolutely do. And, and you know, part of job is parsing through how many members and officials are represented by each camping anything on the inflation front, that's going to be an important distinction today. If they feel Matthew, I think from the feds perspective, they feel that inflation is let's call it. Stubbornly low, do you think the fed can even influence inflation? I think that's a key question. And we've certainly seen a number of fed officials and, and academics and others focusing on the fact that the Phillips curve fund, meaning that inflation, does not seem to be as responsive or sensitive to the unemployment rate in growth has been in the past week. We put in a note just recently early this week and it looked at how much of the core PC basket KENDALL said actually affect either through the economic growth or through the dollar. We think about two thirds of the basket. They can't affect that means that there's about a third of the basket that they cannot. And so it does put constraints I think on how much they can they can get inflation. Can I get back to two percent and from this policy framework, debate can even get above two percent if they wanted to so from your perspective, what can lead in a flation higher wage? Just looking at wages, you know three point two percent. That does not seem to be doing it. Yeah. I think wage growth has not been doing it or for a few reasons, one is that productivity growth has risen in line with wage growth. And so you haven't seen these costs push pressures come come through. In addition, these some of these components that, that cannot affect have been been weaker. But I think the fed, if they are looking to push inflation, higher, it's going to, to be through the economy, typing and more importantly to inflation expectations really, really important. How do they force inflation higher? Is there is there a legit published academic study that says a fed pushed inflation higher? I think the whole Phillips curve, framework, which has, has clearly come under question is about the fed being able to push inflation higher. But that's the effectiveness of that has declined because the sensitivity of inflation dislike has declined history. Well, let's go to Walter Heller. He was before you met the sixties did they, quote unquote push inflation higher. Or was it other forces that moved to play should higher? It was a combination if you look back to the sixties, you had an economy that clearly had head over tightened up. They continue to push unemployment rate lower at the same time. You had health care initiatives, that, that let this guy rocketing healthcare inflation. So that was outside their control. But I think most importantly, inflation expectations rose substantially inefficient expectations versus actually because the fed was really trying to get a hot economy at that time they could contain a push mower. And just in time, he had massive fiscal stimulus. So does it looks at that period and said this wasn't uninteresting inflation, expectations and they look forward? Look at that is the key. Way too short. Betsy was we gotta get you in your three hours at some point. He's working with Peter Hooper, just brilliant. Brilliant,
"greenspan" Discussed on KQED Radio
"As a young man Greenspan was a serious clarinet player. He even studied music at the prestigious Juilliard school. But as you see in the play his heart is with economics. The asset and the impact and the advocate balance sheet have on the aggregate investment process that that number is called going to leave Juilliard going to study economics. Later, we see Greenspan spending time with his friend. I n rant at her weekly gatherings. Debating taxation is immoral. How can function in? Most of the play though, traces the five terms Alan Greenspan spent as chair of the fed. In fact, some of the music just sets Greenspan's most famous speeches to a beat the sun. The simple notion of price, which draws from his nineteen Ninety-six speech to the American Enterprise Institute. Right. Financial implication, critical reception has been irrationally exuberant an audience interest has been high sold out crowds standing ovations six curtain calls every night. Word has spread quickly. And that's made tickets hard to get on a recent Wednesday the line snaked around the block small Greenglass was in the crowd. I've been lining up, and I still have not gotten tickets yet. I've just been listening to the album on arepa. Financial? May Lee has already seen it back for more. This is already in the pantheon of musicals. Like, you've got les mis cats Greenspan, it's also.
Fed holds line on rates, says no more hikes ahead this year
"And in a world filled with uncertainties that Federal Reserve gave us one less thing to worry about this week to no one's surprise. The fed kept interest rates unchanged. But came across as more dovish than most were expecting Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell indicated that they are unlikely to raise rates again this year, and maybe nearly finished with a series of increases they began within three years ago. In response. Stocks climbed briefly to their highest levels for the year and the bond market rallied higher across all maturities, the benchmark ten year treasury bond yield declined to two and a half percent. A new low for the year at a big positive for the housing market since mortgage rates loosely. Follow the ten year yield and mortgage rates fell sharply this week to their lowest level in fifth. Fifty two weeks in some the feds may name appears to be to do. No harm to the economy. The chairman pelvis was in a quote, good place unquote, while inflation continues to run below its two percent target. And in the absence of a sharp economic slowdown, which the fed doesn't see in the cards their forecast for gross domestic product growth was trained to two point one percent down from two point three percent while it's predicting growth of one point nine percent. Twenty twenty the Federal Reserve chairman recent actions are reminiscent of a previous chairman Alan Greenspan whose actions during his reign in the ninety s repoprtedly known as the Greenspan put leading investors to believe that whenever stormclouds appeared in the economy. The fed would come to the rescue with loose monetary policy. Do we now have a pal put well, a time will
How Bariatric Surgery Works
"We have a lot of a lot of different components. To make sure that they're gonna do well for surgery and not just do well from the surgery, but that the surgery's going to set them into rate course for life. Not all of the young patients will need bariatric surgery from patients who are sent to us to be evaluated for obesity surgery. We have approximately I'd say seventy five percent of the patients who we have seen for surgery are in a pathway for surgery, and that surgery, usually it's what's called a sleeve gastric to me, which is removing about seventy percent of the stomach taking the stomach which is shaped in size and shape really about the size of a inflated American football into signs of a bad of banana. Dr Greenspan says this program it s has some health Karna Glennon children's hospital helps these young people turn their lives around with the hope for a healthier future. All of our patients are patients who have tried other things for example, exercise multiple diets found little to no success. And this surgery really provide almost a reset button for the weight loss and the patients have just
"greenspan" Discussed on Your Last Meal With Rachel Belle
"Dorie Greenspan wants mitt chip ice cream lobster and then and ice cream sundae with hot fudge and toasted nuts for her last meal, but for years and years and years, she ate a much more modest meal every single day for lunch rice with sunflower seeds, and raisins, so interesting doesn't come from. I don't know where it came from. I used to wake up in the morning and make a pot of rice. And I would have the rice hot for breakfast. And then for lunch. I would have it at room temperature with little olive oil over at salt pepper nuts, and raisins, and then whatever was left over. I would you know put away we he'd or fry. I just hit this thing for race years. It lasted years. Are you a creature of habit in general just with the rice guess things that I do all the time? But in Fant I am somebody who just follows her wims on one of the things I do. The kitchen all the time is not do what I say I'm gonna do. So I can plan a menu, and my husband will come into the kitchen and say, oh, I thought you were making chicken, I think I had another idea or, you know, I'm the kind who goes to the market with a list and comes home with nothing from the. So I'm not really a creature of habit. But lunch. Yeah. Yeah. With launch makes it easier. I mean, you're probably coming up with recipes all the time. And so it's like one less thing. You have to think about is your lunch. I also liked it. Was just good. I am fascinated with people who can eat the same thing every day because I am. So not like that. I've tried to be one of those meal planning people that you read about in women's magazines where you're supposed to make a big pot of something on Sunday night and eat it throughout the week and by Wednesday. I hate this dish, I can't eat it anymore. I literally don't eat it ever again. Sometimes because I'm so sick of it. But Donald Gorski takes the cake in the creature of habit department, even though he never eats cake because the only it's big Macs. Let's start at the beginning. When did you have your first Big Mac? I Big Mac on me seventeenth nineteen seventy two. And it was the day. I got my first car. And when I got my first car I wanted to go with McDonald's. And then I went to McDonald's, and I bought three big Macs. And I my three big Macs. The cartons in the backseat. I ended up coming coming back. A couple more times that day for three times eight nine big Macs on may seventeenth nineteen seventy two. And then I started in big Macs. Every. Ever since in. What prompted that? Why did you start eating them everyday? And why were you eating so many like so many I probably 'cause compared to like eating chocolate for the first time or something you can't get enough of it at first. And then after a while you just can't eat as much chocolate as you want anymore. I quite a few big Macs for about a month. And then I started coming down into a phase where it was like three a day or down to a day. But it wasn't never doing nine. Again. What gummy started on? It is just that Big Mac or my favorite food, and there's nothing better in the world. And so I just wanted to leave my favorite food every day. So what's your first ever big neck on may seventeenth or had you had them before? No. That was my first one ever was may seventeenth nineteen seventy two in. So were you still living with your family when when you got your car in nineteen seventy-two? Yes, I was my mom later on made me promise each one a day for a while. They're in a little bit worried. Just eat those all the time. So there's..
Three Factors or Events that Affect the Stock Market
"Nine hundred ninety nine when the market overheated bobble number one in Alan Greenspan was late to the game of raising rates. Finally, smoking the market and creating bubble number two in the real estate market. The credit crisis ensued killing the market in two thousand and eight we're now in bubble number three. In all likelihood this market needs to go lower reverting back to the mean the historical average would take the SNP down to a stomach churning drop of thirty eight percent. So it can go higher long term. If you have the time. This would take you back to September twenty thirteen wiping out five years of gains and the last third scenario where stocks are discounted for the prospect of a recession in the coming two years fears the most logical right now recessions typically reduce corporate earnings by an average of twenty to thirty percent such that a dropped from today's level would give the SNP downside of about thirty percent. If you're in this retirement, red zone of two to ten years for retirement, a falling market in the last few years before retirement or in your first few years into it cannibalize is your nest egg due to retirement killer, one sequence rest the secrets of when you take losses. Relative to
Dow's drop marks longest skid for blue chips in 3 months, amid Brexit and falling Apple shares
"Of the day weakness in technology again, apple for example, down two point six percent. The NASDAQ one hundred index down seven tenths of one percent. Former fed chair. Alan Greenspan says a rising US debt-burdened could derail the card expansion and warned the tight labor. Market could lift inflation. I think it's a different. Recalled stagflation. Had some of the characteristics
Greenspan says Fed should use ‘earmuffs’ to tune out Trump
"greenspan" Discussed on KTLK 1130 AM
"No comment Vati Greenspan from each Horo also you can follow him on Twitter, at Mattie Greenspan Greenspan Yeah also answer your your previous? Question do you would you. Be fired if you've got quickly. Caught sleeping at your. Desk, I. Believe I would. Not and I've seen studies that show this is a. Healthy yeah concept I agree too I'm going, to bed Healthy. For you or. Healthy for the business Various, studies. Grabbing me on had a great thanks Bye-bye Tired I gotta be honest villains join yeah yeah I would love to have, him back, to talk about the concept because I actually I mean we run our business like this to where you know if, you if, you you're in. Charge of your own day you do. However you do you just have to get it done that's not the way it's happening at. The sleeping on the they're not getting, their work done it's not. Like, I slept all. Day but I got everything done. No that's. Not happening they're not getting the job done all right. Let me tell you. About our sponsor this half hour it's mercury. Real. Estate You know there's a there's something weird going on in. Real estate right now Home prices are at all time highs again It's been a there's been a run and there's this really weird There's really weird a. Shortage of of homes, because the the upper price is so high, and so there's a there's a shortage of homes that are reasonable. And that is where the real, money is to be made it it's just this this weird.
"greenspan" Discussed on BizTalk Radio
"Name of alan greenspan who believed in easy money policies and at that time all it meant was lowering interest rates and keeping them down but not to zero percent i still remember when being easy was when they would take the fed funds rate down from four percent the three quarter over a six month period and that was real easy and then cambridge and we watched how we went easy and easier and in that time a bubble was created one of the biggest bubbles in history that being the housing bubble and mr banenky didn't know it was coming didn't have an idea it was coming didn't see it coming when it came did not know it was here and not until everything blow blew up did he acknowledge it and what did he do he did something we have not seen before he immediately ramp down interest rates down to zero percent zero percent zero percent now these interest rates are important why because.
"greenspan" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM
"Fatal conceit the idea that a group person or group of people can actually be smarter than a market that if we have enough experts working on something we can solve these problems and the reality is you can't no person or group of people can ever be smarter than everybody else i'll put together and terms of the saddest thing what people's wants needs and desires are and the more we go down this road the worst were just making it for ourselves but that's kind of the basis of the federal reserve that you can have this group of i don't care how smart they are a people that they can somehow manage this economy of three hundred twenty million people that's insanity when you actually sit and think about it and which will also realize if you look at history if it doesn't work okay you have as many recessions now as you head before he had the fed many of them are much worse than they were before the fed but not to get off on it just kind of a bashed the fed theme but you know they have to even when they talked about greenspan was this wizard you'll maestro greenspan he was in the right place at the right time for a period of time and what he did is he built up this huge bubble and it didn't burst until he was gone and so he looks like a genius okay and that's what all these guys do and guys and gals as long as it doesn't go south on their watch it somebody else's rob okay and and the problem this is one day it's got to go south and someone's gonna take the hit for it but the people that are in power now want to make it look like things are really good so that your vote for them you'll support them you believe in them you believe in the economy and by definition that's going to make things better and then i get that the psychology is really really important when the psychology is built on a fundamental lie then you're going to pay the consequence for that down the road road and the fundamental light years is that things are getting better what is the evidence they give us.
"greenspan" Discussed on AM 1300 Business Radio KKOL
"In his distrust of bitcoin howard davies chairman of rbs explained his thumb with bloomberg's tom keene and what is the underpinning market structure that makes a bid bid bid bid bid bid bid on bitcoin well i'm afraid that says irrational exuberance this is as greenspan's famous phrase of course he then found that the market kept on going up off the he said it should stop but this is a very very unusual ball kate this shows we're not in a normal twoway trading market that you normally have even at the in the biggest rises you've got some people trading in and out so we're in a very unusual charge a here and i'm not sure that normal rational market analysis can really eliminate this terribly well davies you're the most closely person in the world to talk about derivatives in wall street founded fsa help you may regulation can you should see hear me and the cbo we should the american derivatives market make a formal market in this thing i think i would counsel them not to at this point because i'm not quite sure that they know enough about what the underlying is about the nature of the supply and demand of the underlying asset so i think it would be a very risky move in reputational turns for them to go in that direction now that was rbs chairman howard davies speaking with bloomberg's tom keene and despite davies warning cbo launched bitcoin futures earlier this week bloomberg's julie hyman spoke with artillery the c o of cbo how's it going from your perspective and how does that compare with what you expect expectations it's meeting expectations really any early days as open interest is building our dedicated liquidity provider's getting com triple a turning a new commodity in this case so it's business as usual from a launch perspective uh three thousand contracts as you point out that's a.
"greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"He ran a global strategy for ubs before launching his own hedge funds in the early nineties when put up spectacular numbers felix also runs zulle off consulting out of zurich switzerland's he has been a member of barons round table for thirty years let's talk a little bit about the great financial crisis because what you said some really interesting things are both before and after and i i will discuss that a little bit heading into the crisis you were fairly bearish tell us tell us what the thought priceless was in the early 2000s before the financial well before we had a the asian crisis in the nineteen night late 1990s and the eu we had the alan greenspan running the fed and i knew alan greenspan before he became a fed chairman the he was an advisor to ubs at that time and we met there is three months to dishonest serve world affairs at the his focus will not that the appropriate but he he's a great the historian and i i detected because most of the time of the late seventies early '80s when we went from rising inflation to declining inflation and i ask the minutes of questions about deflationary processes and he was very concerned about the nozzle told maddie 1930's and from the on and you can really go back into statistic from 1987 on that trauma sought of guided monetary policy it was always too easy for way too long and this leads to the excesses that we have seen before id asian crisis then we had the 1998 with a big decline in the market and then we had the event as tcm russia and the.
"greenspan" Discussed on WDRC
"For fifty per se meaning tax payers of paying for fifty percent of the taxpayers in the not paying taxes is that economically it is a mistake to deal which shop reductions in taxes now greenspan told fox business on thursday it said i quote we are we are a premature on fiscal stimulus whether it's tax cuts or expenditure increases we've got to get the debt stabilise before we can even think of of those terms greenspan said the that nobody is going to change what's going on in washington at this point you're not going to go to donald trump is trump i am alan greenspan you know hawaii us uh i'm a smart guy and i think you should listen to me i don't think we should give the american people i don't think we should give the tax uh companies the tax deduction we just saw what happened the g uh they they cut they cut the dividend by 50 percent so i think it was twenty five cents i think the cut a twelve and thirteen sand now that is a significant decrease they lost one hundred million dollars in market share 100 million die or more in that could be mistaken by that nominee but it was pretty significant village probably worse the number i'm giving you it said that stands in stark contrast with your jean please whole lower taxes by trump who during the campaign dodd himself as the king of how do you w self is the king of dat i quote trump argues that americans economy i called desperately needs massive tax cuts that's what trump is saying but how do we compete with the rest of the world that's what you asked asked the alan greenspan but alan greenspan as saying yes we have to compete with the rest of the world but we have to be smart about it and not on seed a tax deduction i don't see the deductions and spending that's going to solve this.
"greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The tuesday after black monday and suddenly made everybody look at him in a in a fresh and novel way and the reputation that ultimately perhaps became too greatly enhanced over the decades began there weren't you think that greenspan the perfect personality for an verge of significance he certainly was one of three people who i think played an important role in that net psychological factor that you're so clearly pointing to avenue you were one of the people at the time arthur who realized that there was a leadership vacuum in washington president reagan was distracted by his wife sailed initiate had cancer for breast surgery on black monday the answers he sherrad out to the press corps back and forth between hospital sounded out of touch and and ill advised and there was there is a sense that near nobody in washington knew what was going on the fcc chair was only ten weeks in office the secretary of the treasury had gone hunting with the king of sweden i mean it it was a it was a day when nobody was at the eu at their desks where they needed to be and intent that leadership crisis step left some unexpected he rose really alan greenspan was one of them with a com very area died understanding of economics john falen was another one of them he held the first ever live press conference from the new york stock exchange on the afternoon of black monday his com humor in his mastery of the facts made everyone feel like getting there was a grown up in charge here and of course uh jerry corrigan at the new york fed in a more private role was contacting bankers all across the country to reassure them and enforce in their minds the necessity keep credit flowing to wall street so that things didn't just completely freeze up and fall apart so we had some unexpected heroes step in and greenspan was certainly one of.
"greenspan" Discussed on KTRH
"Time a and alan greenspan so you know in a criminal complaint it says on august seven v tip myself as well they they live six or seven other people in the criminal complaint and that we created three com and at the formal legal document i and when i showed that to my lawyer said all right are you traded it on august sabbath i said august sabbath i was at the federal reserve i didn't have access to a computer or a phone or anything else obviously they go into embargo stage uh when they do that decision on interest rate and it was like you said it was my father laws retirement dinner you of the federal reserve up on his car cargo federal reserve i and we were you know at lunch with alan greenspan of been renee in denver an eightyear you talking to my younger nephew is about ten about the yankees and the rent thoughtful and alan great fan was talking to my wife at the time about vegetable so i i was not hit by any measure uh until you know i think it was the next night when i got home i did he actually told me about it but it's my lawyer said look if they can get the date raw in a criminal complaint that the most important iv uh did you know that they could print you know it makes you question the rest of the veracity of the document so how were the how are they monitoring you how did they who i mean we were employees incremental be where we were they wired how how did this and if they get you the i mean that was again it was a little bit like an episode of the wire and i was a guy who was oblivious to at all and again even if i wasn't drinking i think i would have been oblivious.
"greenspan" Discussed on Capital Ideas Investing Podcast
"Greenspan was more straightforward than volcker he talked much much more to the press he left open to the press and he shaped the message with off the record briefings in very cunningly that was part of his machiavellian political skills but greenspan and arrived at the time when it was not noble for the fed necessarily to announce after a decision what the decision was the markets was supposed to in fact that by seeing what the federal reserve open market operations were doing in new york as there was no formal announcement and in next ninety four formal announcements began and they became more common and then communications became more complete and the reason this happened is that as you move from a bank based financial system to capital markets based financial system the road of the fed if it wanted to interest rate economy it had to talk to the markets and persuade market based interest rates traders of those rates to listen and so communication became in itself a policy tool more powerful even than the physical buying and selling of shortterm securities by the open market desk so it's a natural trajectory and benign he took it further more communication and it's gone even further notice it's good or bad in my view it ever shot in recent years because this notion that the fed can guide you about what is going to do in the future and as the vice chairman of today says down fisher central banks should not always tell you what they will do in the future because they don't know what they're going to during the future.
"greenspan" Discussed on Capital Ideas Investing Podcast
"Fascinated now it and i should say also that when you go through the seventies the pictures you actually have in the book greenspan in the seventies our wonderful the kind of coats and pants and the guard from the seventies alan greenspan part choked fully of the of the era right seriously checks talk about the changes in said practice from greenspan's day to now greenspan was we were saying kind of the you know the the archetype of the the chairman whose testifying saying nothing and being you know in you we had there's some famous quote i think you say were if he if i seem to be coming across clearly you must not be understanding because his intent is to be you know totally opaque and say a lot of words that don't say anything now you flash four to today and the introduction of fed news conferences and what do you make of greenspan make of that with what was the case for kind of fed mystery versus today and are we better off what's the right way to think about well there's a long tradition tree which actually even predates greenspan arriving you know in the nineteen nineteennineties when volker channon before greenspan had a complete change in the way he did monetary policy he abandoned munnetra targets having a seven three as he didn't even ten anybody it was a secret and then he showed up a bit later the banking conference in says something like well none of you should really worry about this but we had a slight change in the way we do stuff that we might reverse it again they worry about it this is volcker volcker saying otherwise there was not only a lack of communication it was almost misinformation about what they were doing.
"greenspan" Discussed on Capital Ideas Investing Podcast
"But when you take that paradox that ironies you describe what then accounts in your view for you know as you chronicled the end greenspan after being celebrated as the you know part of the committee to save the world and the most celebrated economic policymaker of this era and then after two thousand eight you know there's a kind of tarnishing of his reputation in this kind of famous hearing where henry waxman the congressional up democrat kind of confront semin green greenspan admits there was a kind of a flaw in his reasoning talk about it remind folks that but then also reckitt what was it that he felt constrained by enduring are already think about the politics of managing acid bulbs or the institutional constraints he felt sure well there was a famous hearing just as you say right after the two thousand eight mcgruther's collapse greenspan was called in to the congress and henry waxman was crossexamining him in a rather aggressive very skilful way and greenspan says at one point i found a flow i found a floor my wills you'd my ideology i've i realized that i was wrong and of course people seized upon this confession i mean there's a documentary called the floor which starts with greenspan making his confession there is near that was a headline in the financial times it was all over the place and this appeared to vindicate the idea that greenspan had admitted that he thought financial companies were look after their and risks they would not take too much leverage because they with low themselves up and so he was believed that finances can be trusted to be safe and now you realize after liman that was a mistake.
"greenspan" Discussed on Capital Ideas Investing Podcast
"Investments are not fdic insured nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity so they may lose value back i map miller and this capital ideas your connection to the lines in inside shaping the world of investments today will talk with author sebastian malady about the life of times of former federal reserve chairman alan greenspan one of the most influential inconsequential figures in the history of modern finance in this episode of capital ideas headed a quiet and rather nerdy man rise to the pinnacle of economic power was greenspan responsible for the worst financial crisis since the great depression and is it true that the man who embodied the fed thought it never should have been created in the first place now here's my conversation with sebastian mallaby sebastian mallaby is a senior fellow at the council on foreign relations he's a contributing columnist to the washington post and most importantly he's the author of the new book the man who knew the life and times of alan greenspan sebastian mallaby welcomed the capital ideas great to be with you met there's so much to talk about in this book which i think will surely stand is the definitive account of of not only greenspan's life but also the larger story of modern finance that is his trajectory embodies the reviews have been staggeringly positive it's prizewinning already so congratulations on all the accolades i guess i see there's too big stories that your talent one is the story of a nerdy man's rise to the pinnacle of economic power and how that when and then there's this other story that's the interaction between our economic understanding of the risks and consequences of financial fragility and the perceived political constraints in managing it that you also use greenspan to tell that story in we're gonna dive into both of those but let's start with the story of young alan greenspan and how he rose what's his story.