40 Burst results for "chief economist"
Fresh update on "chief economist" discussed on KNX Afternoon News with Mike Simpson and Chris Sedens
"Biden presented his economic plan today with short and long term actions to help individuals and businesses who needed most president Biden says Americans are struggling financially and are quote barely hanging on crisis is only deepening. It's not getting better and steeping you. He has just discussed the country's economic recovery amid a pandemic and will sign new executive orders, including a push to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour can not will not let people go hungry. We cannot let people be a victim because nothing they did themselves. Cannot watch people lose their jobs, and we have to act. We have to act. Now. One order will also allow workers to turn down jobs that may risk their health without losing unemployment benefits. CBS is Skyler Henry. That's on top of the 10 executive Order signed yesterday as part of the president's national strategy for a covert 19 response. His plan established his national standards for vaccine distribution and school re openings. A Matt Piper president Biden's $30 Billion rental relief plan is in addition to the $25 billion set aside for rental assistance. In the last stimulus bill, But he's chief economist Mark Zandi tells KNX this money's welcome because theater pickle renter owes about $5600 and backgrounds. We have about 10 million plus renters across the country who are a lot of back rent utilities like penalties, Theo added all up Day O A T This point well over $50 billion and you know for those households that they can't make that payment and get evicted. It'll be devastating. He tells us. The assistance can help prevent a major homeless crisis that would devastate people's lives and possibly destroy many neighborhoods. Landlords will also be able to apply for the relief money. U C. Berkeley economist Sylvia Allegretto tells Can next the president's economic packages, not traditional stimulus, like just give people money and get them out there, spend it to stimulate the economy, like going to a restaurant or going to a ball game, right? We're not doing that. We don't want to do that. We shouldn't be doing that. So I look at this more as really It's a relief package in the inner while we're waiting. And to get told it under control and getting the vaccinations into people's arms, and it's it is going to be awhile. Allegretto says She supports the plan to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour for federal workers and contractors, She says that could have the effect of raising wages for workers in the private sector knew a forecast predicts leisure and business travel will pick up later this year. The American Hotel and Lodging Association's his leisure travel. Should increase early in the summer months. With business travel rebounding a bit in the late summer and early fall, Association CEO Chip Rogers tells KNX business travel will help hotels make money again. For most hotels. Their revenue stream is about 60 to 65% from business related or conference and events. Travel. And only, you know 35 to 40% from leisure travel. Rogers says hotels will struggle the first half of this year, with some having to close. He says 2021 will be better than last year, but full recovery isn't expected until The end of 2023 a new crashes blocking lanes on the south bound four or five through the.
Fresh update on "chief economist" discussed on Michael Wallace
"Recorded its first cases of that UK variants of covert. We'll have the details coming up in five minutes to 25 at WCBS Money New sponsored by Investors Bank. Here's Bloomberg's Tracy Junkie, Michael. The Coronavirus brought everything to a standstill back in March and April, and then the housing market took off. Never stopped. The National Association of Realtors says 2020 was the best year for home sales since 2006 with more than 5.5 million existing homes going to new owners. Home values jumps, too, because of the demand and the Realtors chief economist says homeowners air smiling But, he says it's been frustrating for first time buyers. Cruise ships have been docked all this time. And now Carnival says its flagship brand won't set off from U. S ports and tell May at least carnivals, also canceling European Cruise is scheduled to start in mid May, and the launch of its new and largest fund ship has been pushed to the end of May. Wall Street after two record breaking days looks a little less festive. At the moment, the Dow is down 114 points. NASDAQ's down one S and P's down seven points with money news at 25 55 on WCBS some Bloomberg's Tracy John Key. Imagine if information came with the nutrition label. Then you know if what you're consuming has the right mix of verified fax, credible sources and relevant context, But news and information doesn't come with a label. It's on us to develop a healthy news diet ourselves. Let's.
Fresh update on "chief economist" discussed on Rush Limbaugh
"The Super Bowl in Tampa next month will have 22,000 fans in total. That number includes 7500 Healthcare workers allowed in for free NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell gave some employees at Sarasota Memorial Hospital the good news during their morning zoom meeting today. We can't thank you enough. We hope that this program will be a small way to celebrate you on, are you Most importantly, thank you. Those invited will have had both doses of the Corona virus vaccine. The Super Bowl could include a first the host city having its home team play in the game. The Buccaneers play at Green Bay Sunday with a trip back to Tampa at stake. The Bucks have won two road games in the playoffs already and seven straight overall, you know, for one reason another. We just done a good job. Some years it's been like that I've been apart other teams where wasn't quite like that. Let's keep that streak going. Buck's quarterback Tom Brady, there 31 million Covert vaccination in Florida went to 100 year old Henry Sailor, a World War two Army veteran, said. We got his shot in ST Petersburg Live on Fox and Friends didn't feel thing. Governor De Santa says the state vaccinated more than 400,000 people just last week. And could do a lot more. If only the feds would send more doses of the vaccine. President Biden has proposed invoking the Defense production act to accelerate the manufacturing of vaccines and pandemic related supplies like masks. Florida Senator Marco Rubio agrees, saying it could address the hollowing out of America's manufacturing Pinellas County. Less people begin registering tomorrow for 8000 vaccine doses It just got from the state. You must now show proof of Florida residency to get a shot. The county starts taking appointments at 10 A.m. at patient portal fl dot com. With Florida's news. I'm John the question. 2020 was a rotten year for most, but not for the housing market. Sales of previously owned homes rose close to 1% in December from November levels and that Capt. Housings best year since 2006. Historically low mortgage rates, combined with efforts to escape crowded cities during the pandemic helped fuel demand. The flaw in the ointment, according to the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, is that prices are rising far above income growth. After the pandemic passes, will we still be hooked on hand sanitizer? Sir. Most consumer product companies aren't willing to test that theory by building new factories. But go Joe Industries, the company behind your L is betting on it, The Wall Street Journal says. The family owned company has.
Fresh update on "chief economist" discussed on Wayne Cabot
"Plane near homes in Chicago before the plane landed last night at O'Hare International Airport, people on the ground about seven miles away in Jefferson Park. Heard a loud noise. The wheel came falling down and nobody was hurt on the ground or among those on the plane. When the Chicago Department of Aviation said sparks were set up the runway is it landed Thursday evening without its left side landing here. 25 Bloomberg money News Now on WCBS sponsored by slogans Home Security. 1 800 Alarm Me, Tracy, Jockey Good morning. Good morning, Wayne. The coronavirus brought everything to a standstill in March and April, and then the housing market took off and never stopped the National Association of Realtors. Says 2020 was the best year for home sales since 2006 with more than 5.5 million existing homes going to new owners. Home values jumps, too because of the demand, and the Realtors chief economist says homeowners air smiling But he says it's been a frustrating for first time buyers. Passenger cruise ships have been docked all this time and now Carnival says its flagship brand won't set off from U. S ports until May at least Particles. Also canceling European Cruise is scheduled to start in mid May, and the launch of its new and largest fund ship has been pushed to the end of May, while straight after two record breaking days looks less festive. At the moment, the Dow is down 203 points. The NASDAQ Down. 24 has some peace down 15 with money news at 25 55 on WCBS on Bloomberg's Tracy John Key. A.
Fresh update on "chief economist" discussed on The Dan Proft Show
"Israeli officials taking a Michigan congresswoman the task for some controversial remarks Israel and its supporters of pushing back a congresswoman Rashid it slaves charge that the Jewish state is racist for not providing coronavirus vaccinations to the Palestinian Authority. The Michigan Democrat, a member of the squad of vocally anti Israel representatives told interviewers that Israel is withholding the vaccine because it believes Palestinians are not equally human. Noting the success of Israel's vaccination program to Lady Man Did it set up similar campaigns in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, feeling to mention that under the Oslo accords, which established the Palestinian Authority, health care, including vaccinations is an exclusive function of the Palestinian Authority. 50,000 doses of Russian vaccine will be administered in coming weeks. I'm police freaks and town Hall News Jerusalem News and analysis at the media line dot Oregon town hall dot com. Long term mortgage rates slip this week, but those rates remain at record low levels. Mortgage Buyer Freddie Back reports that the average rate on the benchmark 30 Year fixed rate home loan ease to 2.77% from 2.79% last week. The damage from the pandemic on the U. S and global economies suppressed home loan rates through most of 2020, Freddie Mac's chief economist says rates will remain relatively low is the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates near zero is needed until the economy. Covers John Scott reporting fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, lowering claims to 900,000 still historically high level that points to further job cuts and a raging pandemic. Meanwhile, home construction jumps 5.8% in December 21.67 million Sure to check out Maurin. These stories at town hall dot com. I'm Rhonda Rostrum. Enjoy. Thanks. He ordered breakfast at the McDonald's.
Retail Sales Break Records During Holiday Season
"The us department of commerce's monthly retail sales report is expected to reflect more moderation in consumer spending at the end of two thousand twenty consensus. Economists expect that retail sales were flat in over november. After a one point one percent drop during the previous month while spending likely increased steadily. On a non seasonally-adjusted basis the ramp in seasonal spending was likely lower than in previous years as the pandemic steadily worsened through the month and fewer family gatherings took place over the holidays. New amora chief economist. Louis alexander said in a note. Friday restrictions on restaurant activity resulted in sharp declines for open table data suggesting a decline in food service spending during the month however this will likely be offset to some extent by large increases in gasoline store sales considering higher retail gasoline prices during the month the november retail sales print represented the biggest drop since april's record plunge as virus related restrictions constrained spending on services and more than offset ongoing strength in good spending a nearly eighty percent plunge in department store sales and sharp declines in clothing store and restaurant spending contributed most heavily to the overall monthly drop in november but even with the month over month decline retail sales remained higher by more than four percent year over year thanks to a surge in spending on goods earlier on during the pandemic period. Total sales are set to close out the year better than they started it with our forecast for flat sales growth in december consistent with a four percent year over year gain. This remarkable feat cannot be said for many areas of the economy that continued to reel from the pandemic wells fargo economist. Jay bryson said in a note friday but retail has disproportionately benefited from a surge in good spending that said there remains wide variation in sales by retailer and we expect that these dynamics of varying sales continued last month amid rising virus case counts a weaker than expected print. In friday's retail sales report could also signal some additional pent-up. Consumer demand could come back for goods consumption in the coming months. Bryson added if sales exceed our expectations however it would be further support of our forecast that after a year defined by the virus households spent in record numbers this holiday season as the yearn for comfort and normalcy. He added for
US job market weakens in December, fuelling hopes of more stimulus
"With political implications. That are as we speak. Still tb but with implications for this economy that you can kind of see the outlines of even now here to make sense of it. All our k- davidson. She is from the wall street journal neil. Richardson is the chief. economist ed. Adp hey you too. Neil let me start with a quick pass at this morning's jobs numbers because it is jobs day friday at the end of this kind of amazing week. We lost one hundred and forty thousand jobs last month. My question to you is more of a statement. Actually and it goes like this. Uh oh i guess. I l. indeed but it's not totally unexpected. We knew that the code cases were rising. They were rising december with that. Bryce states and municipalities have had to roll back or tighten restrictions on social gathering that has a direct effect on the job market so this trend of slowing the momentum in jobs recovered each month as cova cases rise continued in december. The hope is that when we have a population that is inoculated. Maybe later this year second half of the year. We'll see those job gains. Come back in the meantime it's still going to be a pretty rough winter For those people who are out of work and also cleared. I was touching with a friend of mine this morning. Who works in finance and he said you know. I think by fall or winter of this year which is to say. Twenty twenty one. We're gonna be rolling right along. And i texted him back and i said look man. We are as far from winter this coming year as we are from the beginning of this thing. Think about all the damage that can That is still yet to come in this economy. What do you think. yeah. I mean. I think that's what Democratic policymakers economists are warning about. And when you hear folks say it's important to have another big economic relief package for example which is something we've been hearing a lot about even though we just had this big nine hundred billion dollar. One Economists say it's important to try to get back to where we were before march as quickly as possible in other words. The longer this is drawn out the Take the harder it is to to come back. The deeper the hole the harder it is to get out of it So right it would be. It would be amazing if vaccines were rolled out quickly which may be an early december. We were all so excited. We thought they would be in our seeing. Gee it's not. It's not so easy. And and people are maybe a little more pessimistic. So that just means it's gonna take longer for people to be back in full force at restaurants or movie theaters or on cruise ships or airplanes and And it might. It might feel like a longtime time before at that place. So nila lemme ask you now about the news of tuesday. The democrats win georgia. They now control the senate and there had been much speculation that they were going to be able to do something more in relief. Maybe even those two thousand dollar checks the president trump and and others had been calling for and then joe manchin a democrat or west. Virginia came out today and said. I'm not sure i'm on board for two thousand dollars and everybody kind of realized that it's a much thinner majority than maybe the actual numbers would imply i think on this front. I make two points at first of all i. I firmly believe that the economy is going to lead politics. Some this issue if we continue to see job losses like we saw in december There may not be a lot of wiggle room of how the government responds. I if they want to make sure that the economy can pull through this. Secondly i think what would it. Also indicates is yes there is the may be some some dissension even along party lines. And so what it means. Is that big reforms which typically occur when there is a single party leadership might be delayed even further in this presidency. Because it's covid right. Now that's taking charge of covid. That has a seat at the table. And so that's going to have to play out a before we can get to those bigger reforms that i'm sure by the would like to tackle his term. That's a really good line. The economy is gonna lead policy Speaking of economic policy. Kate president-elect biden came out in a statement today or in a in a speech to reporters talking about a bunch of economic stuff. He said we should be investing in deficit spending which is remarkable thing for a politician to say out loud. It's a huge Reversal or shift if you will from when president obama came in Last financial crisis democrats were were leaning into this idea that republicans were pushing that in. I think continue to push that. We need to be worried about about deficits right. I mean we obviously want to support the economy and In support people and households. But we can't go too far. And i think that there's been it. There's been a big shift among Economists and economic thinking on this in ten or twelve years since then and that's look at interest rates. They are so low right now. In biden made this point that when interest rates historically low and the federal reserve you know they've got rates as low as they can go or as low as they are willing to go. They said they aren't gonna do negative rates They could do more bond buying but there's not a lot they can do Then you should be spending more even if that is deficit spending And that's the argument that we heard The president-elect today and it's interesting because we know that his economic team the advisors. He's been turning to for advice last year. They were making that same argument. They're saying look at the cost of finance. This debt is so low it it. It makes sense to invest now because those investments will pay off over the long term. If if they boost growth roy All right i'm gonna try to squeeze last one in and i'm going to try to get both here in about thirty seconds apiece if you could we've i want. You can't leave the segment today without the politics of this economy coming up and we talk a lot about uncertainty in this economy and what that has meant the last four years. I wonder neela what you think about instability in the politics of this economy because that seems to me to be where we are i think the biggest danger as we look at the economic fragility of that we're grappling with in the winter months. Is that we keep. We take our eye off the ball of the economy and the people who've been hit hardest in the economy. It's easy to give way to the politics of the moment. That still about ten million americans who were working in february who are not working now and we have rental moratoriums that actually end in january and so the danger is that we give way to the politics. We stop thinking about the economy. So meyer urgency on this. Friday is to remember. It's about the economy right now. And the health infrastructure that is necessary for to keep the economic recovery going to quickly uncertainty verses instability. Well i just. I think so much is going to depend on. What happens after january twentieth. And whether you still have president trump out there sort of riling rolling up his base And how the the congress and how republicans interact with the with the incoming administration the incoming president and we have reason to think that things might go okay mitch. Mcconnell has a longstanding relationship with joe biden and they've worked together for for many many years but to to as point earlier. I think that what happens with the economy is going to be driving these these discussions. Hopefully hopefully if things get worse or things stay. Stay as they are. They'll they'll come together though overcome These issues and get something done if the economy is it who davidson at the wall. Street journal
Economists Brace for Market Rebound Before COVID-19 Holiday Surge Peaks
"New covid nineteen cases in the us. Hit a one day record of nearly three hundred thousand over the weekend. According to data from bloomberg and johns hopkins university following an increase in travel for the holidays and resumption of testing after a holiday pause the widely anticipated post-holiday spike in cases is underway and the seven day average. Likely will hit a new record later this week. Ian shepherdson chief economist. For pantheon macroeconomics said in a note monday. We're braced for a bigger rebound than was seen in early december. Before cases finally peak around the middle of the month.
Pandemic wage gains were just a fluke
"Come friday. We're going to get the latest stab shot on average hourly earnings in this economy and it is expected to show continued strong winds gains but our guy on economic statistics mitchell hartman. He says best to ignore that and focus instead on the trouble yet to come so a crazy thing happened on the way to the pandemic recession. After the economy shut down and twenty million people lost their jobs. Workers average hourly earnings went up skyrocketed. Actually up eight percent year over year but what got was was not signal. Joseph bruce willis is chief economist at rsm consulting. He'll be our guide through this thicket of wage data and when he says noise not signal he means fast. Rising wages have been a statistical anomaly of the pandemic economy high paid professionals kept working from home and mostly held onto their paychecks but millions of mostly low paid service workers lost their jobs. When you've got forty percent of households making forty thousand or less seen a job loss or loss in wages. That explains that head. Fake if you will on wages forty year old cinnamon deutsche is. An example of what bruce willis is talking about. She was teaching at a childcare center in asheville beulah ohio when it closed and she got laid off in march her three hundred and fifty dollars a week. Paycheck disappeared from the average earnings calculation. But she got unemployment which included six hundred dollars a week in extra federal pandemic pay until she was hired back three months later. I made twice as much on unemployment with the extra six hundred dollars. As i do now but i am glad to be back to work. I mean i like going to work so like many americans do inches. Income actually went up for a while because of additional unemployment benefits and relief checks but those temporary effects are fading. And just says we're in for a rude awakening. What i think we're going to see is a very bifurcated. Wage market this idea that k shaped economy separation between the hadgem. The have notch bruce willis says the haves those who work in what he calls. These zoom economy will have made goes at the upper end. Those who are already thriving. There's going to be competition for those workers. you know. Premium place their wages but for lower wage says workers even as the economy reopened and employers. Start staffing up again. Those in the middle to the lower end of the market where the damage occurred. They're not going to see a lot of wage growth. That's due in part to supply and demand. Lots of unemployed workers looking for jobs not enough job openings to give them leverage to demand higher pay. then there's something. Economists call downward nominal wage rigidity firms during hard times ten not reduce. The wages of the employee said they keep on the books but when the times get better wage gains core restrained. That is pretty much what cinnamon joy is seeing in her job. She's back at work fulltime at her previous salary of three hundred and fifty dollars a week. The extra unemployment income she banked back in the spring has run out. My credit card is back up to you. Know almost max out trying to pay five or ten bucks extra so that i can pay that down. I make enough money to pay my bills and have mcdonald's once in a while but you know if my car breaks down or have an emergency am just outta luck i i have to borrow from. Somebody doesn't expect chill get a raise until she hits ten years of service in twenty twenty
S&P 500 ends at another record high as tumultuous 2020 ends
"The S. and P. five hundred and the Dow have closed out twenty twenty at record heights okay not reflective of the turbulent year the S. and P. Dow and the nasdaq wavered between small gains and losses most of the day before all finishing the trading session in positive territory the S. and P. game twenty four to a record three thousand seven fifty six finishing up more than sixteen percent for the year the nasdaq composite added eighteen to twelve eighty eight powered by high flying big tech stocks that soared forty three point six percent for the year and the Dow added one hundred ninety seven points on the day closing at a new record of thirty thousand six oh six the blue chip index finished twenty twenty with a seven point two percent gain apple and Microsoft leading the way but as for the overall economy and particularly the job market PNC financial services group chief economist Gus poche says it could be a slow start for twenty twenty one I don't think we'll see outright job losses but certainly much weaker than what we saw you know over the past you know let the past year or so but I do think that by the spring things will be getting better that will have more people vaccinated the people will feel more comfortable going out I'm Ben Thomas
Farmers Got A Government Bailout In 2020, Even Those Who Didn't Need It
"Back in the spring. Farmers who raise pigs were in panic. Some of their usual customers restaurants weren't buying prices had collapsed. Some hog farmers had no place to ship their animals because workers in pork processing plants. Were getting sick. This is just a grave situation on hot launch. This is nick. Giordano a top lobbyist for the national pork producers council in may on a call with reporters unless there is a large cash infusion from the federal government. We're going to lose a lot of producers lots of different farmers demanded government aid and congress provided thirty five billion dollars in emergency aid to farmers on top of regular farm subsidies which amounted to about ten billion dollars a year. Money went to hog farms but also people raising cattle corn and soybeans fruits and vegetables. Dairy farmers. Joe glauber an economist. At the international food policy research institute had trouble keeping up with at all. You almost lose track of of how much money is going out. Clobber used to be the chief economist at the us department of agriculture. And he finds it a little disturbing because by the time. Farmers got a bunch of those payments in the summer and fall. The problems were going away. Commodity prices have come back up and actually looking better than they've looked in several years. According to usda estimates total farm income this year without that emergency aid would have been about average with the government payments. Twenty twenty looks like it'll be the fifth highest year for farm income in the past forty five years. I think there is a fundamental question at that point. You say well. Why are we providing all this additional aid especially since farmers group are relatively wealthy while millions of other americans are wondering how they will ford groceries. I called up some farmers and got several different answers. Chad lehman is co owner of hog farm in illinois that got more than seven hundred thousand dollars in government payments in twenty twenty according to usda data obtained by the environmental working group which is critic of farm subsidies. Lehman says it's really not much for as big as his. He ran up against a cap on government payments to any single individual or farm. So didn't come close to covering his losses. None of us expect to be made whole but are asked was hey help us get to next year without that money. You don't think you would have made it to next year. What think you would have seen significant fallout from the pork. Industry significant fallout but farmers didn't have to prove that they needed help. They simply got paid based on their previous production of green or pigs or cattle the more crops. They grew the more government. Money they got up to that cap ron roseman farmer in western iowa says his neighbors sometimes made jokes about it. You know all these farmers were getting together and playing cards. These older farmers. I heard one guy say yep got another check from the government today. Didn't need it but boy. Yeah i don't know what to do with it. Roseman got some of money himself and yet i'm not in favor of an overall because it has Disproportionately gone to the largest producers which means those large farmers now have more money to outbid their smaller neighbors when land comes up for rent or for sale and when small farms eventually give up means fewer people in rural communities less life in small towns. We just continue to fight declining and aging population out here. It's a paradoxical result. Rosement says but passing out money to farmers this way can actually hurt farming communities and more money is now on the way. The latest coronavirus relief package contains another eight billion dollars in payments to farmers. Dan charles npr news.
Where does the economy go from here?
"We are going to dispense with the president's remarks last night about changes he wants made to the virus relief. Bill that congress finally passed on monday. After months of negotiations. We are going to dispense with it with this observation. It's all fun and games and political intrigue until somebody gets hurt and people are getting hurt all over the place in this economy as we have been telling you for months and we got more evidence of that this morning courtesy of the commerce department will learn consumer spending fell nearly half a percent last month the first time. It has fallen since april thing. How long ago. That was and it same time. Personal income fell by a little bit more than a full percent. The third decline in four months. It's no mystery. Y right government aid has been keeping people afloat and that aid is running out so to get us going. Marketplace's samantha fields looks at what that is going to mean for this economy. This time of year is normally when people spend more money. Carl tannenbaum chief economist. At northern trust says the fact that personal income and consumer spending dropped in november is a bad omen. It does give a pretty good sense that households are not going into the new year in very strong answer to the urgency around. The negotiations in washington consumer spending crashed in march and april but then bounced most of the way back largely thanks to government aid back in april after the cares act. There was a huge pop in personal income. Ted rosman is an industry analyst at credit cards dot com and a lot of that did trickle down to other sectors of the economy. He says over the summer a lot of people felt like things were getting better but now maybe those unemployment checks have dried up. They've long since spent their first stimulus check. Maybe they're not able to go back to work. And people are nervous. After months of uncertainty over whether the federal government would provide more relief says tim quinlan senior economist at wells. Fargo six a long time to build up consumer confidence and not so long to disrupt it or to shake it and when people have less confidence and income there are less likely to spend their money. Carl tannenbaum northern trust says that is a bad combination spreading done by households accounts for almost seventy percent of our annual gross domestic product. Our national income. And if it's not recovering he says neither will the economy.
Hopes dimming for another round of stimulus checks in 2020
"Regardless of a vaccine for so many americans. This is emergency time. We're so close. There is a light at the end of the tunnel and yet people are going to the hospital now. Businesses are getting closed now and without financial relief a lot. More people will lose their jobs some getting ready to spend their first winter in homeless shelters but this week you're also seeing some hope in washington that a deal can get done for the first time in months it seems. Lawmakers are close to passing another round of support. Compromise is within reach behind the scenes. There was clearly some bipartisan cooperation. Happening for example many democrats wanted direct stimulus checks sent to americans will it now appears some republicans and perhaps even the white house itself may be on board with that idea. Some workers have gotten sick. Have sued their employers for not protecting them better from the virus. Republicans wanted to shield corporations from that type of lawsuit. Mitch mcconnell is no longer saying that really has to be included. But they're so lots of hangups lots of reasons. This could be sunk so this morning. I don't want to talk about the partisan back and forth. I wanna ask a simple question what happens. Congress does not pass a code relief. Bill what are the consequences days weeks and months from now. Abc's chief business and economics correspondent. Rebecca jarvis is here rebecca. Can you smell it the stakes for me at the capital this week will brad incredibly important. It is make or break. It's life or death. I'm just day by day trying to figure it out day. Bonday that in the pocket of for example a single mother like angel recently spoke to in detroit who works in a hospital makes minimum wage. Therein has three school age. Children were that school. As of last friday is no longer available to her in person. The choice of work and kids shouldn't be a choice. I want to be the best mom i can be. This could be the difference between her being able to afford to pay for childcare to have someone come to her home or to even drop her children off at daycare or her potentially having to quit her job because she has no other alternative to care for her children and at the same time work so it's been challenging trying to keep going to work and prevent being far low or fire to keep you know inconsequential our lives and our lifestyles. But at the same time some nights. I go to sleep. And i'm like why am i going to work. What are the domino's that would actually fall. Just nothing happened like. Can you walk me through how that would play out from. The halls of washington to small business will two things especially are hammering. Small businesses and many small businesses in this country happened to be independent restaurants. They have not given us money and they have shut us down. We cannot survive. My staff cannot survive in one case particularly in california. You have a number of restaurants who've been told to close their doors because of the spike in cova cases now that we are going to close the outside. It's of our employees go home. And how are they going to pay their bills in new york while restaurants can remain open and they can serve primarily outdoors. They have a tipping point because things have just gotten so cold that as goldman sachs estimates about forty degrees. Is the tipping point where people are no longer going to be interested in dining outside while we're there in new york. The summer has just been a disaster to scott freezing cold after thanksgiving and the world has just completely fallen apart. Earlier this year in september the national restaurant association pulled all of its members and said how many of you can make it. The next six months without any additional aid from the government forty percent of the national restaurant association members. These are small independent restaurants across the country. Said they weren't gonna make it six months without help. That was three months ago. We're already in the territory where they weren't sure they were going to be able to survive. We see all these posters that were all in this together but it doesn't seem like we are when a particular industry as being targeted stricter than others for many of them. they're using their home as collateral their mortgage as collateral. What does it mean if they go out of business it means they could lose their home. It also means that their retirement savings for for many small businesses. The retirement account is the business itself. You've seen from j. p. morgan for example. They're now estimating the first quarter of next year. We'll see negative economic growth Moody's they're saying at this point that without help from the government we will see a double dip recession. And that's really what we're talking about here brad. What's you're not just envisioning like stays really bad. You're envisioning a scenario where it could even get a lot worse really suddenly affecting everyone with a potential deal rebecca here. I'm sure the average person would just take what they can get. But when you talk to economists business leaders are there things that need to be in this deal to avoid that disaster scenario. You just talked about well brad. According to a group of more than one. Hundred and twenty-five economists including jason furman who's a former top economic advisor to president obama. Those direct cash payments to american families are incredibly important. I need the help. My kid's name to eight other people's kids. The the the thing about stimulus checks is that they're one of the fastest ways to get people money that money gets spent immediately and it gets spent immediately in ways that can help give the economy a little bit of juice at a time where people have been pulling back but once you start looking at what various analysts in what economists are calling for. They're saying at this point sooner rather than bigger is better in fact If you look at what. Bank of america's chief economist is calling for right now. She wants to see money for testing for the vaccine and contact tracing pandemic employment insurance. That's the employment insurance for gig workers and people who have lost coverage because they've already extended out all of the benefits because they've been collecting benefits for too long and then direct aid to small businesses. Moody's mark zandi adds to that list. Rental assistance among the programs ending soon is the cdc eviction moratorium. If it expires it will lead up to five million tenants facing eviction in january the beginning of winter. I've never been in this situation ever before my life. I've never had to come out to beg for help. And even calling any of this stimulus is sort of a misnomer. It's really about relief. So that people can just get to the other side.
The economy added 245,000 jobs in November, the slowest month of growth since recovery began
"Has reported a sharp slowdown in its November employment report on Lee 245,000 new jobs were created last month that significantly less than the new jobs created in October. I am swamped. Chief Economist at Grant Thornton says the U. S economy has only gained back about half the jobs lost due to the pandemic. Still 9.8 million jobs in the whole as a result of Cove. It 19 from February's peak. That is actually a million more job losses than we saw during the height. Of the recession in 2000 and eight in 2000 and nine. The unemployment rate in November declined to 6.7%. But that number is lower on Lee because hundreds of thousands of Americans gave up searching for jobs.
Biden introduces economic team, including former Obama officials
"The president-elect announced key members of his team on tuesday and among his picks are several officials. Who served in president obama's administration. So what should we expect from biden's incoming economic team joining us. Now is jerry boyer. He's chief economist at violent financial. He's author of the maker versus the takers. What jesus really said about economics and social justice jerry. Good morning good morning nick. How're you doing well. Thank you for asking looking overall at the biden economic team. The rollout yesterday. And i think wall street journal summed it up pretty well. Lots of government. Experience here Knowledge of labor markets An emphasis on equity and climate change in short and really no surprise. Here there's kind of a preference for a government managed economy reregulation in order to produce certain outcomes thinking of this idea of equity in climate change and so forth. But i wonder jerry. Is this not a recipe for a return to the slow growth of the obama years. Yes it's It's almost perfectly seems almost perfectly designed to recreate that those conditions the conditions that held when we had this policy next before and what that was was slow growth growth. There was a plus sign on almost all of the quarterly. gdp reports but it wasn't a kind of plus sign the order of magnitude that were used to expecting as americans. And i expect. We're going to get a similar outcome here and it's also interestingly enough coming out of a crisis coming out of a deep recession. So i think we're gonna get obama results with obama policies.
A clear disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed
"Janet yellen in her first official remarks as treasury secretary nominee. Maybe giving congress low. Poke in the eye. Inaction will produce a self-reinforcing downturn causing more devastation. So that's the maybe there is help on the way news of the day. The oh no. There's not came to us from fed chair. Jay powell and treasury secretary steven mnuchin in congressional testimony this morning summing up their views on the state of this economy and as marketplace's nancy marshall genzer explains. There is a disconnect. If you watch. Chair powell and secretary mnuchin senate banking committee testimony today and i know you did. You'd think they were talking about two different economies. First mnuchin said the october jobs report showed that the economy has gained back. Twelve million jobs since april and powell followed up with although we welcome this progress we will not lose sight of the millions of americans who remain out of work. Powell looks at the big picture. Mnuchin is focused on the letter of the law and the cares act did specify that some pandemic aid stop at the end of the year as the economy recovered mnuchin acknowledges that some additional help is needed but he also points to the falling unemployment rate. Catherine judge is a law professor at columbia university. The look at where we are this quarter relative to last quarter and they look at the rate of improvement. The unemployment rate did fall to six point nine percent in october. But that's still almost double the jobless rate before the pandemic hit the us adam ozimek chief economist at the jobs would site. Upwork says powell sees the glass half empty wall. Mnuchin says it's half full and mnuchin could make it harder to convince wavering members of congress to vote for another relief package. You can't really rally the troops as long as you're describing glasses full if congress doesn't pass another relief bill. Williams college economists. Ken kutner says the fed will say. Look if you guys can't get your act together and pass some fiscal stimulus you know. It's going to fall for the fed to try to try to take that slack as best we can and kutner says the feds tools are not ideal for that fed chair. Powell has said repeatedly. The fed makes loans not the grants that struggling businesses and jobless workers need right now.
Thanksgiving Dinners Are The Cheapest They've Been In Decades
"Every year before thanksgiving the american farm bureau sends volunteer shoppers into grocery stores. They note the prices of the ingredients. That go into thanksgiving dinner. Cardiff garcia and patty hirsch from npr. Podcast indicator from planet. Money discovered the cost of thanksgiving is going down. The american farm bureau is a group that represents farmers throughout the country and its annual survey. It found that the average cost of thanksgiving dinner for ten people. This year is forty six dollars and ninety cents on the farm bureau's chief economist. John newton says that figure is low really low down four percent of from what we saw last year and actually is the lowest level that we've seen since two thousand ten and that's what i'd adjusting for inflation. We asked john if he could tell us high. The cost of thanksgiving dinners changed when he does adjust for inflation and specifically. What we wanted to know was if it was possible. That thanksgiving dinner was actually the cheapest it had ever been since the survey was started back in nineteen eighty six way. Let me let me power a spreadsheet. Just a mayor sure for go for it. Yeah i check it out yes it is. It is the lowest that it's been thirty five years. Wait a minute what did you just tell me. The in inflation adjusted dollars. Thanksgiving dinner is going to be the lowest. It's been thirty five years. Are you stunned. You know i am actually. I don't know why didn't look at that particular statistic before you asked me so. John says that you basically have to understand two stories to also understand why thanksgiving dinner is so cheap this year. Because here's the first story what happened this year. The ingredient with the biggest decline in its price is the turkey turkey. Prices came in dollar twenty one per pound that was down seven percent from what we saw last year. Which means you can put a sixteen pound bird on the table. Offer less than twenty dollars this year and this could be partly because the pandemic has forced families not to gather together in the same big groups as they normally would so. There's just less demand for those big turkeys families usually by and it's also because a lot of grocery stores have discounted the price of turkey. Frankly just to get people through the door. According to the department of agriculture more than eighty percent of retailers were running promotions across the country. When we started this survey. So you'll see turkey. Prices that range anywhere from twenty nine cents a pound to two ninety nine a pound depending on what type of grocer your and then. There's the second the longer story to tell. And this is actually an easy one to explain. Because of new technologies and innovations in how to produce food over the last few decades farmers have simply become better at it more efficient which means that they can sell the food for cheaper. You got to recognize that we benefit from a higher quality very affordable food supply. You know we spend a small percentage of our disposable income on food. Food in the united states is very affordable now john and the farm bureau of course represent farmers so he's boosting his piece. They're a little bit but the general story that the agricultural sector in the us has become more and more efficient over time is definitely true.
Farm Bureau Survey: Thanksgiving dinner cost down 4%
"Every year. Right before thanksgiving. The american farm bureau sends out hundreds of volunteers shoppers into grocery stores all throughout the country. All fifty states their mission to find report the prices of the ingredients that go into a traditional thanksgiving dinner and then the most mouth-watering way possible harris farm bureau chief economist john. Newton listing a bunch of those ingredients. I mean it's your classic thanksgiving dinner so you obviously have the turkey so there check in turkey prices. We've got stuffing sweet. Potatoes brown and serve roles. Cranberries for the cranberry sauce. You're shells your pumpkin pie. Mix whipping cream a gallon of milk. But it goes without saying the prices of these ingredients will be different depending on where you are in the country. Yeah absolutely. I mean a turkey that you buy a whole foods in manhattan is probably going to be more expensive than turkey. You buy a hy-vee in iowa partly because the price of everything is higher in manhattan but also for other economic reasons to john says you also have different supply. Chain costs to get that bird into grocery stores in manhattan for example. It's going to be more expensive to do that. And say Put it in a grocery store in in iowa where you're very close to where turkish approved so john and the crew at the farm bureau do is find the average price of each ingredient across the whole country. Then they add those prices to find the total cost of that classic thanksgiving dinner in every year. John and the farm bureau look at the same ingredients so that they can see just how the cost of thanksgiving dinner has changed through the years. And this is the thirty fifth straight thanksgiving. The farm bureau has conducted the survey. But this is twenty twenty year unlike any other. The couvert pandemic has upended so many parts of our lives and that includes the prices of the foods. We love to eat on thanksgiving today on the show. How and why. The price of thanksgiving has changed. Not just this year though but also through the decades
NRF expects holiday sales will grow between 3.6 and 5.2 percent
"Even more holiday spending this year than last. That's what the National Retail Federation is predicting. Despite the pandemic cutting into in person shopping, it's predicting an improvement in sales in the range of 3.6 to 5.2% compared to this period in 2019. It's also predicting online and other non store sales jumping as much as 30% offsetting any brick and mortar losses. The federation's chief economist reasons that since people aren't spending their money on travel and entertainment They have more to spend on shopping
The GDP report isnt the whole story
"Come on repeat after me, you have been hearing or reading it all day I know the US economy. The US economy con grew at an annual rates GRUDEN annual rate of demain fill in the blank. You know it right thirty, three percent in the third quarter. Again, that is annualized or just from July to September compared to a quarter earlier growth rate was seven point four percent which sounds great. It does and Kinda is, but it doesn't get us back to where we were or. Where we might have been without this pandemic marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer gets his going with the output gap. We've all been there. Sometimes, we just don't live up to our potential former Fed economist Claudia Psalm says it's kind of like what happened in her house this morning when her fifth grade son had to retake virtual math test the teacher knew what his potential was but and because he wanted to get done with school and play on his IPAD, he didn't put in the time and do his best work. Some says it's the same with the economy. The output gap is the difference between what the economy is actually doing versus what it could do before cove it in recent years. GDP has been growing at two percent or more, but it just means that we know what we could be, and if we're not there yet will then we've gotta do gotTa do better even with today's strong GDP number we've only made up about sixty percent of the economic ground we lost in the first half of this year according to nationwide senior economist Benares. He says, that's partly because consumers are still avoiding risk. Your consumers are still down about a third from what they normally spend overall. Certainly, most of that's focused on the service sector with people not eating out as much. Music concerts anything that would involve large groups. Dissolution Solution here is pretty simple, less virus and more economic relief from Congress. Another Relief Bill Greg Dako chief economist at Oxford Economics says a lot of consumers relied on extra federal unemployment payments that ended over the summer as these transfers slowly faded out consumer spending activity has. Called Dako says it'll be at least another year before we get back to a normal rate of economic growth without another relief package he says, it'll take even longer I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer for marketplace.
New GDP Numbers Won't Be Enough To Repair All Economic Damage
"We the are expecting news this morning that the US economy grew at a record pace during the last three months not many people are popping champagne corks though this is because the economy also shrank at a record pace in the three months before that, even the strong rebound in July August September is not enough to repair the damage done by the pandemic earlier this spring, we have NPR's Scott horsely with morning Scott Good Morning David. So what is this morning's report going to tell us about how the economy's doing? It's a snapshot of an economy that has balanced partway back from the depths of the pandemic recession. We know that unemployment's dropped is now just below eight percent and while that's still more than twice as high as it was before the pandemic, it's a lot better than a lot of people for were expecting the we're gonNA see by this time of the year we don't yet know exactly what the Commerce Department will say about GDP, but we do expect it to show a record level of growth in the most recent quarter. And the president has already touting that at campaign rallies as evidence of what he calls a v-shaped recovery having a super V it's called nobody even thought we are doing numbers and where do you see that number? GDP I don't know what it is. The Fed said it may be a thirty five percent increase in GDP in fact, the forecast from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is even better than that they're projecting annualized GDP growth of about thirty seven percent. But a caveat David that headline number is kind of exaggerated. Explain to me why we think that that's an exaggeration. Will the government routinely reports these quarterly shifts GDP as if they were sustained for a full year which makes both the downturn in the spring and the rebound in the summer look bigger than they were and they were. Plenty big to start with in the spring. For example, the Commerce Department said the economy shrank at an annualized rate of about thirty one percent. What that means is if the slide had gone on for a whole year, we would've wound up with an economy thirty, one percent smaller. But of course, it didn't go on for a full year the downturn was really Sharp, but it only lasted a couple of months and likewise the growth spurt we saw this summer is not likely to be maintained Narain vish WHO's chief economist at IHS market says a lot of the growth was actually front loaded in the early part of the year and the result and was the result of a lot of pent up demand when businesses reopened. If you pull back on a rubber band and like Oh, it's going to snap back but then it Kinda goes limp act. Certainly, the fourth quarter and maybe early next year will be pretty weak growth and that's especially true as the corona virus rears its head again and we've seen a sharp selloff in anticipation of that in the stock market. This week of the Dow dropped more than nine hundred points just yesterday.
New home sales jumped more than 30% in the past year
"The housing market took a bit of a surprising turn last month sales of new homes fell. In September three and a half percent that's from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development Down we should say from August. So it's month on month from September a year ago though sales are actually up more than thirty percents low mortgage rates, not a lot of supply of existing homes and a whole lot of people looking for more space in this pandemic equals a whole lot of demand for new and bigger construction as marketplace's amy. Scott? Reports the average size of a new single family home peaked at two, thousand, six, hundred, eighty, nine, square feet, five years ago think maybe a two story house with four bedrooms and two and a half baths that average has been falling gradually ever since as more millennials have entered the market seeking affordable I homes. But now because of the pandemic, we're seeing data already that builders are getting more and more requests for larger homes because people want more space rose. Quint with the National Association of Home Builders predicts in the second half of this year average home size will start growing again as buyers look for space to work go to school an exercise at home a return to bigger holmes isn't great for the Environment Says Maury Cohen who teaches sustainability at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. Clearly, it takes more energy to heat and cool larger spaces rather than than smaller spaces that even if people want bigger houses they. Can't necessarily afford them. Alley Wolf is chief economist at Zonda Housing Data and consulting firm and so builders are really struggling with should we build larger homes that may have to come with a larger price tag or find creative work arounds that buyers can afford one builder she knows took a bit of extra closet space and turned it into a zoom room. Just big enough for a desk and chair same square footage whole different vibe. I'm Amy Scott for marketplace.
Housing Boom: Sales of Million-Dollar Homes Double
"The pandemic is driving a record setting boom in the housing market, according to new numbers just out today, and as NPR's Kris Arnold reports, it's also exposing the ever growing gulf between the haves and the have nots in America. Overall about 20% more homes were sold in September compared to a year ago. But the most dramatic increases their happening at the top end of the market. Sales of homes costing a million dollars in up have more than doubled since last year. I don't ever recall home sells doubling in a 12 month times that Very unusual. That's Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. He says people are working from home while juggling their kids, remote schooling him and many who can afford to are buying bigger houses. Mortgage companies are making money hand over fist. Right now they're doing so many more home loans. Some are running ads like Thiss and although together is great, together with more space Is better. It's not just the super rich buying bigger places home selling between 255 $100,000, though, saw a 36% jump in sales. Meanwhile, the median home price has also just hit a new record. $312,000 Now you did great news for homeowners as they're seeing equity devised and why, but Yoon says prices are rising too fast. Economists like to see home prices climb in line with people's wages. But home prices, he says, are way beyond that. He will eventually lead to a talking point where first time buyers simply cannot show up to the market because they can't afford to buy any house that actually want to live in. And he's worried that that will lead to even greater income inequality. A that virgins in society you have to have With homeownership gaining their equity. Those people who would like to become homeowners continually being frustrated, Yoon says. Already, there are fewer first time Homebuyers as Faras. What's driving up prices? It's low interest rates, and there are also just aren't enough homes for sale. Construction is ramping up so that should help eventually. But for now, Homebuyers air quickly pouncing on the few homes that get put
"chief economist" Discussed on #hottakeoftheday
"Is going on vacation? It is dear w here for another episode of the heartache of the day podcast today. I'm very fortunate to be joined by Jay. Bryson who is the acting chief economist for Wells Fargo Bank and his base in North Carolina? J. Welcome to the show. How are you today great? Thanks for thanks for having meter so so North Carolina big basketball town. How are you feeling about the fact that there may not be there is no final four? Obviously no no march madness what. What was the vibe of of the state so so I'm a North Carolina Tar heel. I WENT TO UNC. Many my children and also did as well and actually it was kind of good news because we were going to make it to the big dance this year. So our streak up to like fifteen sixteen. A big dances remains intact but Yeah but but now it's obviously you know not having the NC Double A. Tournament. Iryna basketball crazy sort of places you know. It was tough but Just all sorts of sports. You know it's Things got shut down now. But that's all open and and hopefully things will start to get back to the good and and so we were chatting just before we went on air here about Where North Carolina is in terms of the stay at home order and South Carolina's obviously opened up with Tennessee. Atlanta Georgia has opened up as well. Where where's where's North Carolina in that spectrum of opening backup right so the governor Re a few weeks ago extended stay at home orders until may eighth And that's the latest so whereas South Carolina you know is starting to gradually reopen some of those other states. You mentioned we're not dairy that said It does seem like cases here as many other states are they're still going up at a decreasing rate. The curb is flattening here and we'll sleet and we'll see what happens going forward so one thing I did read today is that there's a Nascar race here in Charlotte Over Memorial Day Coca Cola. Six hundred they always APP and in the paper today. The governor said a assumes that that race will go forward doubts. Whether or not there's actually fans in the stands. I probably not GONNA be in front of nobody five. They may in fact the letter. That's I mean that's great and and I'd read earlier that the first professional sport that was at least coming back after cancelling was the PGA tour right and and It it certainly seems like people are are getting ready to get back to life. It'll be interesting so so talk to me a little bit about your background. And what it takes to become chief economist. And I think I think from context a lot of energy professionals who listen to this show are thinking about a career change after the crazy crazy. Double Black Swan and chief economist. Right so So I've been doing this for a number of years. Now I have a background did so. I have a economics in earlier by career I taught at university is a University of Alabama moved to Zuhdi Federal Reserve in Washington. Dc spent a number of years there and then about twenty years ago ourselves. I came to at the time. The bank was first union which became more covert. Now Wells. Fargo in you know I've been here for about twenty years now and So started out as our global economists of watching what's happening in the rest of the World Dawson there's a lot going on obviously here in the United States and I had to keep a track and then as chief economist retired about two years ago so I moved into that role. So so how over your twenty years. So I'm just thinking going back. It was about two thousand so so you would have been in a similar role kind of around the tech bubble burst and the Y2K. The most similar pandemic was that all the computers. Were GonNA end January. I was going to happen in Y. Two K. was GONNA melt down the world than it was sort of a non event but it coincided with the tech bubble. You know sort of took a long time to recover their the great recession in two thousand eight two thousand nine and then now this how does this compare to those events both similarities and differences? So this is a cliche now to use this word by us it anyway and this is unprecedented. We have never seen an economy. Just completely stop an altogether young tech bubble when you go back and you look at it. That turned out to be very mild. Recession was depression for the tech industry but for the overall economy wasn't much of her session at off of thought that the global financial crisis was once a generation. Not Lifetime sort of thing. This is completely different. This is where every part of the economy just shuts down and even as bad as October. Two thousand. Eight was Dench adapt so. That's the biggest difference This time around. I think some similarities. Are you know if you think back to two thousand eight you had? The government got very active decorated. Tom Ridge it for Federal Reserve Rolling out all sorts of programs and twelve years. Later we're kind of doing the same SORTA policy response. And so you know I think the good news of this world a lesson of the Great Depression you know the Great Depression. There was a recession. That was starting in the summer of nineteen twenty nine that turned into the Great Depression because of utter failure of policy. I'm Federal Reserve. Did Not do its job. As the lender of last resort fiscal policy in this country didn't really turn stimulant of until nineteen thirty three nineteen thirty four not the depths of great so we we've learned that lesson that when the economy in the private sector Covet grinds to a halt the other public sector has a role to prevent something even worse from happening. It is from from a context standpoint. Nineteen you know. We do have these major events in history and I think of one thousand nine hundred eighty nine nineteen eighty seven two thousand eight and two thousand twenty as sort of the big ones. I don't I don't know that I've missed any for walk with my wife. 'cause that's what you now. Do you go for a walk with family members during the day and we were looking at from nineteen thousand nine hundred. Nineteen thirty two. The Dow fell from about three sixty. Two thirty is at the bottom which cheer point on Fiscal Stimulus. So maybe talk high level Before we dive into the details about some of the functions of the of the Fed how you think about their use of the balance sheet and you know tarp as I recall which felt like a huge number at the time was like eight hundred billion if I remember correctly and we've already in terms of liquidity and fed action have already taken multitudes more and and as a buyer of last resort of municipal bonds and high yield bonds and treasuries and multiple levels of stimulus. What is the role of the Fed in the economy? And how does the economy? Broadly work for those. Who aren't as familiar with it before we dive into the specifics of what comes next. So the Fed is the lender of last resort with. Nobody is there to to lend. That's where that's what the Federal Reserve is is charged with doing. And so what they're doing now is is so he may remember the quantitative easing programs her after their young well what has been known up to this point as the great recession where they're buying government bonds mortgage back securities. They started doing that. But they're also as you got as you mentioned are also starting to buy corporal corporate bonds so high yield bonds in terms of exchange traded funds and municipal securities as well. And so what they're doing is a lot of these markets in recent weeks or back in back in late March Really started to grind to a halt. And if there's no trading in these markets witty and justice system just starts to completely dry out we are a capital markets based economy a lot of lending occurs through the capital markets through the corporate bond markets. So at the Fed is doing is by purchasing. Those things are starting to re liquify those markets and we've seen Issuance in the investment grade market. Just explode recently. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Fed if some of these bonds at their buying holding on the balance if they if they go bad you have the false then the Fed is looking at credit losses. And maybe sooner or later Congress would have to step in and make the quote solid. The Fed became technically insolvent because his losses. So they're really treading in some some really use. This word again unprecedented. And they're all. Potentially there could be some political blowback from all of this if some of these things that they're doing right now we're starting to go badly so so I wanna I wanNA take it a little bit in pieces and I'm Gonna I'M GONNA set of context and then I just want to get your feedback. So as said March I remember it was about March. Twenty third like the the market ceased to act and think for a lot of people who are just their day to day. They don't really pay attention to their stock portfolio. They don't really understand that. The bond market is much much much larger than the equity market. And how everything works. But I was looking at the city of Detroit and in about two thousand thirteen. The city of Detroit declared bankruptcy meaning of course that they didn't have enough funds to to pay their debt back so they they restructured their debt. And at the time the municipal bond holders got seventy four cents on the dollar and so if we think about the municipal bond market now which is where all the city's fund all of the infrastructure projects. How worried are you about a drop in income tax in a drop in property tax in cities all across America that they don't have ability to print money that they have these bonds and projects and government workers and state workers who are now starting to hear beget laid off? How does a city recover two three years? What does this look like from the municipality perspective so I am a marginally worried about that I mean if you look at the spending at the state and local governments together aggregate that accounts for close to ten percents of GDP and unlike the federal government which can run these guys generally cannot write their constitutionally barred from their own constitutions from being on to do that so when tax revenue start to dry up as they are right now what they have to do they have to cut spending in the last thing you WanNa do when GDP is contracting significantly like it is right now is to have to cut spending and so this is? This is another political flight that occurring in Washington do make the the next package fiscal stimulus package up to this point focused on consumers and on businesses. Do we do this as well at the state and local people in Washington who sites? We need to do that. There's other people there who are saying no. We shouldn't be bailing those guys out. They need to cut spending Yada Yada Yada. That's that's a political argument right but you know if you look back at the at the recovery from the last recession. One of the things that cut that held that recovery back was that you have all these big cutbacks at the state over. So it'll be it'll be interesting with the politics out all plays out of Washington. So is there. Is there a potential come because again I I like how you keep sort of touching on? There is a political element that that overlays the the economics and so depending on your slant whether you're republican sort of small government small spend small tax or Democrat big government big. Spend big tax that. You're you're cutting down these lines but do you have a fundamental economic question around. Should the Fed be buying municipal bonds? So that if they go bankrupt it's basically the Fed gets hurt not the rest of capital which is an interesting economic argument. Now if we go one level up to the states and you alluded to this. And I'll use Illinois's an example where I think they had come out and said that they they wanted a bail out and part of that bailout was a bail out of their their pension and the state.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The chief economist at Amherst pure point securities about what to expect from chairman past comments tomorrow from Jackson Hole Wyoming plus we'll speak to our good friend Barry results Bloomberg opinion columnist on his hash tag trump recession piece as well as the new concept being floated over last several days about stakeholder capitalism we'll see what that's all about the first as good as the prisoner Bloomberg news for a Bloomberg business flashed up Hey Paul ours some down today in the market about the path of the fed the end of the rate cuts that the market had been discounted today we heard from a Kansas city fed bank president Esther George saying the American economy doesn't need lower interest rate it's curious to because the Kansas city fed bank reported its factory Gage now contracting by the most since twenty sixteen now another fed official Philadelphia fed bank president Patrick Parker was telling CNBC he is on hold right now when it comes to the idea of cutting interest rates further now tomorrow venture Jay Powell will be speaking at the Kansas city fed bank has symposium in Jackson Hole that's the speech that the market really is waiting for terms of the equity market right now the Dow was weaker by tenth of one percent S. and P. five hundred down about three tenths of one percent the nasdaq composite meantime weaker by about seven tenths of one percent terms of eco data the numbers on weekly jobless claims much stronger than forecast we're now at a four week low but the manufacturing PMI here in the states a reading of forty nine nine for the month of August that echoed some of the weakness of we had coming out of Germany the manufacturing PMI their weaker for a seventh straight month contraction below fifty although on the positive side for Germany services about four cast ten year treasury right now with the yield of one point five nine percent you're caught up on markets let's get back to Lisa and Paul this is Bloomberg markets with Lisa from it's in polls we radio to Margie Powell will we're hoping at least will be some sort of definitive freed on whether or not the federal reserve will cut rates as much as investors are hoping most likely he will.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Mickey Levy chief economist at Bernburg capital markets with a focus on the Asia Pacific region, which seems to be the focus of markets over the last several months. It seems Mickey good to talk with you this morning. We are as many market. Participants are trying to figure out what comes next in the US China trade dispute. Where do you see this going? Critical point is the whole issue has gone way beyond and focuses on intellectual property and related issues in that regard. I do expect this current impasse to be broken with some kind of agreement on some of some of trade and tariff related issues. I think. The debate and and scuffle on intellectual property is going to continue to keep in mind is. Some of these, like, borrowing actual pretty and requiring foreign companies. To turn over their actual property. You know, Detroit dentures this is this is part of this is a critical factor. That is it is lifted China from being a poor country into into an economic superpower, America's not willing to give it up right away. So we look for some breakthrough not on everything and likely to continue teacher. All right. So how do you read the bond markets? Read on what's been happening in terms of the heightened rhetoric we've seen on both sides. Well, I think that I think the lower farm yields are reflecting a confluence of factors including economic slump. And this is related to real problems and challenges in Europe. China's not just negotiations with the US, but also China's growth is slowing. Then you have also industrial slump in the United States with a moderate inventory overhanging to be unwound. We can't we can't lose sight of the Federal Reserve and other central banks are folding massive amounts of sovereign bonds and keeping interest rates really low inflation. Confluence of events are. Toward lower on yoga being. By the concern that, that things might unravel in the economy. So we've seen this before we had an industrial in two thousand fifteen sixteen late two thousand fifteen look like the wheels were coming off the China and much lower than they are now. Were down one point six to one point seven range, and then and then another episode was late. Two thousand eighteen were yields fell very sharply before. I don't think the US is going to fall into recession once again industrial but not a recession and just like the other episodes of the markets will way out of us. And, yes, I do some you know, agreement to agree between the US and China will will break the current impasse, if not Saul all the all of the critical issues, they face only about a minute left. You mentioned that inventory overhang that hung a lot in the read of first quarter GDP. We got the first time around. We got the first revision coming out later this morning expecting any major changes to that. We three very well could see another slightly downward revision but I think the critical point about the inventory. Overhang is appro- visit. Because because this is slumped in, in product demand. And she won and what is suggesting in to to the Renou, and maybe three. Final sales by the okay yield cheating people that will cut production. Try to. And a little a week, JD PM will maybe perpetuate market concerns about about weaker economic growth. Mickey Levy chief economist berenberg capital markets. Nice to talk with you this morning. And again, the revised first quarter GDP comes out at eight thirty A M, Wall Street time is five twenty four on Wall Street right now straight ahead on Bloomberg daybreak. We're going to hear from Morgan Stanley CEO, James Gorman about the risks to the financial markets. Plus, all the latest news in business economics and finance development futures pointing to a higher open for equities on Wall Street s and p.
"chief economist" Discussed on Outcomes Rocket
"Two thousand financial times top ten digital management teams in five, Dr Kennedy joined GE healthcare, as chief economist and received the CEO's president's award for creating a team to drive market access at GE. She was a globe. The head of marketing operations and managed in innovation portfolio that lead GE's healthcare strategy, which the company grew two billion dollars in nine she was awarded the vice-chairman's award for John rice, for the creation of the N launch of GE's six billion dollars. Healthy magic nation innovation incubator. She's got a long list of accolades, including awards from the UN, the White House idea the triple negative foundation and the national association of executives really, really excited the dive into her expertise, today, some of the other things she's involved with our, Ted med a singularity university. So the list is long with that I wanna stop there and open up the microphone to Lisa to welcome to the podcast, Lisa. So glad you're on. Hi saw, thanks so much on. It's a real pleasure, privileged to be invited onto your show. Thank you. And so, is there anything that maybe you wanna fill in on that intro? No, I think you got it all aside from I wish my mom was listening. A lot of cool stuff for sure. That's awesome wall. You'll definitely have to share with her. So she could take a listen. I'd of your parents are like this. But I'm not sure that mine really know what I do. So I'll definitely send them send them this. No, it's, it's Fritz the same as same. So it's it'll be a good one. So a shoutout to Lisa's. Mom. So lisa. Why did you decide to get into the medical sector in a certificate question? And it was an accident. I was finishing my masters in policy management economics in the U K. And then, you know, I was looking to pursue a PHD and you know, I was only twenty three and I really thought that marketing was placed to be my supervisor at the time he talked using economists and you talked me back into economic sets out swipe background, I've, I've been really studying economics until Ben, and he specific area of expertise was health economics is in my twenties. Early twist. I really thought it was going to be just the most boring thing you could possibly do. But as you know, if anything opposite, he just in my PHD, I was able to travel that you THEO Pia. I didn't know anybody. But each day I could travel in a UN truck. I took down a data from about fifteen hundred maybe patients in Addison, baba. I went through patient charts, find drug reactions being able to watch nurses, go out find patients in their houses to make sure that they got the treatment that they needed witnessing what they have to go through and her to get healthcare. We think we have it hardware, who we have really have no idea in US. Yeah. It's such a good point. You know, we tend to be a little near sighted, when it comes to the larger global health issues. Sounds like you got a feel for a lot of the stuff those happening globally. So if you were to design on a hot topic, Lisa that needs to be on every health eaters mind today. What would you say that is, and are you guys approaching it at fifty so I know you probably really want me to save blockchain is, that's what everyone says undistributed leisures for help data and security is really pretty exciting. But instead, I'm gonna go with health coin, you know, I think the innovative finance in finding that unit to measure progress not really into. Acting for the US, if you think about carbon trading will I always inscription? We haven't we've been on a perennial search for the carbon of health and, you know, I think we need to clear way to measure health. Standardize way, I don't think the quality is it when you think about actions and steps to improve it, everyone acknowledges that health is married. Goodwill communists, for sure in so we need units to help us understand. How do we measure progress better? How do we incentivize it? I how do we maintain competition within the US? How do we get what is essentially a fundamental market failure in healthcare?.
"chief economist" Discussed on KCRW
"Your long everybody, we begin on this Tuesday with a restatement of our every now and then observation that this is a global economy, and we are kind of stuck with it. Come. What may and when what is coming is generally good rising growth in economic optimism. Good fine. When what's coming is less growth in some small degree of economic pessimism. Well, you got to play the Andrew del right? And the global economic hand we are being dealt today comes to us from the International Monetary Fund. IMF get it which is out with its latest forecast on the global economy growth. Yes. But less of it the IMF third forecast of slower growth in six months. He took over not is the chief economist for the doctor welcome to the program. Thank you, you called the global economy this morning and some of your commentary. You said we're at a delicate moment how come why said global growth is projected to slow down to three point three percent in twenty nineteen and we expected coveting twenty twenty and you know, that covers precarious so that's the sense in which this is delicate moment because if any of the downside that we worry about materialize. Now, the recovery that we're expecting a may not come about. Okay. Why are you expecting covering if it's if it's precarious seems like a gutsy call them make well, we certainly seen as a substantial amount of policy combination around the world. I mean, all of the major central banks have shifted to a more accommodative stands we've seen China. Putin a fair amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. We certainly seeing some improvement in trade tensions between the US and China at least compared to twenty eighteen so all of those factors, you know, would help a growth going forward, and we expect. See some recovery's and stressed economies that Tina Turkey. So that's where I focused is coming from show. We've got low rates the accommodative policy that you mentioned, but we do still have the specter of a no deal, Brexit or whatever's going to happen over there. We have ongoing U S China trade talks, which again who knows what's gonna happen over there. Get me, then to your to your downside risk that you mentioned. I mean, I'm unavo- main downside risk remains an escalating intrigue tensions, you know. Maybe with other countries in other sectors like autos, a we would like to see a resolution of Brexit with an agreement. That's not a audio Brexit. I mean, these would be some of the important policy missteps to be avoided. Let me get a little more specific. Are you talking American trade policy movement here we are talking about? Yes of eating the US China trade tensions weaken growth weakened investments. Reduced business confidence. So the question is what happens going forward from the US side from any retaliation. Which is why we you know, we say that this is a delicate moment and is important for policy makers to avoid missteps, let me just ask since you mentioned central banks and listeners will hear elsewhere in the program about about the impedance of central banks. And since you led with it in your answer. How critical are central banks and the proper functioning of to the to the future health of global economy. I mean, central Bank policies vase is taken recently the independence of the central Bank are all hugely important for the health of the global economy. They played an important role in reducing downside risks that were showing up towards the end of twenty eighteen and so it is important that they remain independence remain data driven and the the policies are well communicated. So you've been on the job since the first of January, how're you liking it so far it's been it's been a lot of fun. Great. Doc to choose the new ish chief economist at the International Monetary Fund out with your global forecast this morning, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Thank you so much. She mentioned a no deal Brexit, by the way, without getting into the current state of play over in the UK because frankly, one loses track US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this today in congressional testimony, quote, I think at this point secretary said we need to be prepared for a hard Brexit as a very realistic outcome, and of quote, hard Brexit, of course, is a no deal Brexit again. Who knows what the what over there on Wall Street today? Honestly kinda man nobody was really wild about that IMF forecast. We'll have the details when we do the numbers..
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Arjun is chief economist at fort Washington investment advisers, his book investing in the Trump era, how economic policies impact financial markets. He's based in Virginia. But with us in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio nice to see you again. Same carol. It's great. And you've got this book. I feel like it's very timely. We were kidding with you Jason. I that. It's a little dance. There's a reminds me of my economic textbooks in college. But tell me what you set out to do. Yes. The the motivation was watching the presidential debates and I wanted to turn them off. Because I said this isn't informing the electorate this is just name calling. And so I said in a time of partisanship. Can't somebody go out explain to the electorate, here's what the issues are all about present views from both sides of the political divide. Try to present evidence to suggest who might be right or not. And then just be a more informed voter. And so how do you cut through all of it because we were talking right before we came on air that we are starting to sense that investors are better maybe a little bit better. As this administration goes on at separating the signal from the noise, you don't see as much of the market fluctuation on a tweet here there and focusing in on the key economic and investment issues. What are they what? So if there are three. Three. What are they what we should be focused on? You know, basically, initially it. I thought the most important were the corporate tax changes and deregulation, and I had the good the bad and the ugly of Trump policies. So the good was I'm not saying from an absolute perspective and saying will be good for the market. Right. And my conclusion was they would be good for the stock market they boost corporate profits. What was the bad? The bad was how did we finance of the tax cuts? They didn't pay themselves. And we're finding out we're facing a trillion dollar budget deficit in the coming year. The treasury has admitted that so that goes hand in hand with rising bond yields so that's the bad. And then of course, what's the ugly? I'm an international economist by training. And what worries me is with Trump follow through on his rhetoric, and he has big time this year. And I think with the world is worried about. Is our economy's fine. But I look at the overseas economies they're softening in China and emerging economies Europe. And if we get into a major trade war, nobody knows how will play out. But it can sure you one thing nobody wins. That's my ugly. That's interesting. All right. So we've heard also President Trump talk about even more tax breaks for some and some and going onto trade policy. Some say it is smart to kind of rework some of these policies that were in a different environment. That some of them are old what what are the policies that you think would make the biggest difference to the US economy right now? So Carol to that we don't need more tax cuts. In fact, I thought we needed tax reform simplify the tax code to make it easier. And if you if you give somebody a tax break, you gotta take away a tax loophole. And Ronald Reagan learned that in one thousand nine hundred eighty six so so basically, I'm not in favor of more tax cuts. I think the thing that everybody said would have made sense and might still make sense is public sector infrastructure structure. And it's amazing. Everybody agrees that it's the thing to do. Right. Still. It's still and there's a lot of money as we know. Jason I talked to a lot of the private equity guys have been raising these billions of dollars in funds and not being put to work. That's right. And I'm saying, so that's what should happen. But let me tell you why won't happen. Again. It comes down to the budget deficit not just for a year. Carol I'm talking for the foreseeable future is out of sight. And so even the president has had to go to his various agencies and say all right everybody for next year cut spending by ten percent. So. It doesn't add up. They're not going to be able to figure out a you know, how to do this. So I wish we had started with it. And I'm afraid it's too late right now. So you come out of writing this book. Are you more optimistic about the investment possibilities now less optimistic about where where you were when you went in? I'd say less optimistic. I think initially there was the basis for. If they stimulate the economy, and so far to be fair to the president that's worked corporate profits record highs. But what I'm basically saying Jason is okay. Now, though, we have to pay for some of the Bill, and as I say, I believe that interest rates are headed higher on not because of inflation. It's just there's a huge amount of borrowing going on the economy strong. So that's gonna be a headwind for the stock market. And then on top of that, I've got a very strong dollar which Trump doesn't want right because he knows that hurts American exporters. But guess what if you are growing faster than the rest of the world? You've got rising rates capital comes in. So I think that we're going to face more headwinds. And that's why tell everybody I'm not perish. But I tell everybody listen this time to be more cautious of those glorious returns of last year. Just be grateful. You got him right, greedy, some basic economic fundamentals going on right in terms of higher rates capital flows. It's really it's really fascinating. Thank you so much. Thank you. Great to have you back here. Next Arjun chief economist at fort Washington investment advisers, his book is investing in the Trump era economic policies impact financial markets. He's based in Virginia. But again was joining us in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio coming up on the other side of the break. We'll get a check on your top business stories. We did see a headline crossing edgy out with their third quarter just at loss of thirty four cents a share versus an estimate of six cents a.
"chief economist" Discussed on Talk 1300 AM
"The chief economist for i trust as we follow his his commentary daylight he's he's a big contributor to the fox business network as well and he he basically believes that and he's holding his forecast of twenty eight thousand five hundred dow and a thirty one hundred snp which is you know about fifteen percent higher than it is right now he has not changed that standard to despite the correction we've seen despite the trade wars despite the uptick of interest rates and he said it could be higher but he's still holding to that twenty eight five on the dow and thirty one hundred on the smp and he thinks that the trade negotiations ship usually will provide good things and you know he expects the earnings to continue to grow for the full year about fifteen percent and he's a big proponent on on market's doing better as we head through the balance of this year deductive kelly would j p morgan who's another economists that we follow and he's been on the show and bryant westbury westbury's been on our show his analysis is is is based on fundamentals and valuations and positioning and he he thinks you know the huge amount of information that's out there on the internet is often wrong it's often dangerous and he constantly rejects the fundamentals on the economy on interest rates and earnings anything's you know nothing has changed for money conomic growth point of view and he's he feels the tax cuts will will give us economic growth the jobs report will be better and better confidence is going to be there and spending is going to increase and spite you know the uptick at the at the the gasoline pump the rise in oil prices does have effects on the economy there's no doubt about it you know higher gasoline prices may restrain slightly in my opinion consumer spending but the increase in energy exploration because of the increase in oil prices does imply more capital spending out there that's going to add to the gross domestic product growth the gdp and for the fed policymakers the key questions whether the higher cost of transporting goods maybe passed along to consumer prices in this adds to the difficulties that the fed has an achieving a soft landing for the economy in the.
"chief economist" Discussed on AP News
"The past days see store for details and terms and conditions a fight brewing over a trump administration decision to add a question about citizenship status to the twenty twenty us census ap washington correspondent saga megani says it's facing opposition especially in california the administration says asking for citizenship information is helpful on a number of fronts specifically to help us better comply with the voting rights act but democrats are blasting a move they say will intimidate immigrants meant to try to drive certain populations away from completing the form california attorney general havi airbus sarah says that would skew each community's numbers affecting everything from seats in the us house to federal funding california and other states say they're suing the administration over the change saga megani at the white house a democratic senators demanding answers from the national rifle association ap correspondent matt small says it has to do with money coming in from overseas senator ron wyden of oregon wants the national rifle association to turn over information about funding it receives from foreign sources and how it spins that money the ranking democrat on the senate finance committee has asked the group for a detailed breakdown of their media buys over the past three years purchased with foreign funds is also seeking communications and other internal nra metrics regarding those media campaigns but the nra insists that while it received some foreign funding it says none of the money is spent on elections a left leaning advocacy group has asked the federal election commission to investigate whether an ally of russia's president gave to the nra during the two thousand sixteen presidential campaign matt small washington pending home sales in the us picked up last month after falling five percent in january the national association of realtors says it's pending sales index rose three point one percent in february two one hundred seven point five despite the uptick the index is still down four point one percent from a year earlier chief chief economist blames the uneven performance at a shortage of homes on the market pending sales surged ten point three percent in the northeast rose three percent in the south but eked out gains of just point seven percents in the midwest and point four percent in the west what a matchup.
"chief economist" Discussed on KQED Radio
"More than a hundred gop lawmakers sent a letter to the president yesterday urging him to reconsider the european union said it would retaliate they in swonk is chief economist at accounting firm grain thornton according to important thing is now markets are hoping now be scaled back but at the end of the day we are moving gown and shifting course in terms of protectionism and then go it's important to remember protectionism is something that always benefit semi minority over the majority in an economy and that's a dangerous route to czech shifting gears international to what's going on here at home tomorrow we expect to get the employment report from the commerce department what are you looking for what we had regime and montored january there was a lot of workers who literally couldn't get to work particularly in the south because if unusually harsh winter weather which means the composition of games in the month of january we're more high wage workers they got to work forgot paid any ways than what we usually see in a month the wage data in the month of february as those low wage workers come back to work could be much softer than we saw in the month of january and that could be something that markets are very focused on and they could misery debt as a slowdown in wage gains rather than just these month to month distortions and what it means for the trajectory on interest rate hikes this year chief economist at grant thornton and i'll let's do numbers the dow jones industrial average is up thirty seven point says less than twotenths percent the smp 500 is up about twotenths percent the nasdaq is up twotenths of percent 10year treasury elders at two point eight five percent the senate is expected to vote on a bipartisan bill possibly as early as today that will free up small and midsize community banks from the regulations but in place after the financial crisis one prevision would relax how the bank's report who gets housing loans.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm barry ritholtz you're listening to masters in business on bloomberg radio my guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates their tightening okay they're selling assets off of their balance sheet are they selling them or they learning them just roll off when they vote your mind sending us they are doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is it the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow that is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of larger than bactor so you surprised that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet i atto the street gets paid so of course that's what matters the moves a little classic confirmation biased so what about the idea of the fed is in so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off the there were mergency footing this is really normalization so i went back and looked at tech real tenure yeltsin right over the last four decades averages about two percent absolutely there's wide variations but the average is about two percent were sold other words when you when we say we'll he'll real adjusted for inflation right 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very its by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding this really no other word to describe that above the.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"My guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates vetter tightening okay they're selling acids half of their balance sheet are they selling them or they lining them just roll off when they won't your mind sending us they are doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is that the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow god is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of largely factors so you should prize that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet ayatollah the street gets paid so of course us what matters the moves a little classic confirmation biased so what about the idea of the fed isn't so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off their emergency footing this is really normalization so i went back and looked at tech real 10year yields right over the last four decades averages about two percent absolutely there's wide variations but the averages about two percent were donald woods when you when we say will he'll real adjusted for inflation 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very it's by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding there's really no other way to describe that above the.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm barry ritholtz you're listening to masters in business on bloomberg radio my guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates their tightening okay they're selling acids half of their balance are they selling them or they lining them just roll off when they vote your mind sending us they're doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is it the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow the jet is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of lord's factors so you surprised that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet i atto the street gets paid so of course that's what matters the moves a little classic confirmation bias so what about the idea of the fed is in so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off their emergency footing this is really normalization sir so i went back and looked at 10 real 10year yields right over the last four decades averages about two percent finally there's wide variations but the averages about two percent were donald woods when you when we say lille real adjusted for inflation right 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very it's by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding there's really no other way to describe that by the.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is constance hunter she is the chief economist at kpmg wish she overseas aid broad portfolio of different of business sectors let's jump right into where we are in the modern economy from the perspective of a big accounting and consulting firm they they split the two pieces in two different groups is that right so we have some regulatory requirements that they create chinese walls and we there are a long list of advisory services that we cannot offer to our audit client right and but this is a great businessman because it it diversifies our business we have audit and tax mmhmm and then we have our entire advisory business which is very diverse so we do things like data analytics we do things we vote entire business called people and change which when you think about what is happening in the labor force and the way technology is impacting firms and how they're managing for that how their retrain their workers that's a that's a huge practice for us for example showed none of course risk compliance all that other stuff on either traditionally expect someone like kpmg to do so you originally were on the biocide you were an investor in fixed income an alternative investments how has that colored how you see the world of economics whether it's for an audit slash consulting firm or anyone else what does coming from the biocide duty your economic perspective fall for me i think it's critical to my ads and and that is that i i've spent most of my career using economics to make investment decisions and.
"chief economist" Discussed on BBC Radio 4
"Chief economist of the imf said the overarching risk is complacency we've seen other markets hit many many record highs we have uh this idea rolf that growth is hiding some of these big structural problems and these big structural problem is all things like inequality inequality he within countries who have within countries inequality between generations between countries here there's a big push on gender equality just twenty one percent of the delegates here are women now that's a record high but still a remarkably low number and israel worries that although there is global growth is not global growth that is being shed in a way that many people think he should be in people look at the events hair and the the big dinners in the glamour and they won the weather capitalism is really working for them but really the big issue will be here is looking towards the end of the week and the arrival of president trump the firstserving president to visit double since president clinton the year two thousand what's hone will he set here will he b combative about the way america is leading the world and you should all get on the way that where operating and not worry so much by global trade or will he be more conciliatary now that'll be the really interesting part of this whole event and we'll broadcasters program from dennis on that day on friday thanks komo twenty four minutes past seven turkish forces and still on the attack on the border between turkey and syria they're trying to throw kurdish forces are northern syria with worrying implications for turkey's relationship with nature will act made better shonka is a turkish mp heads the turkish delegation to the nato parliamentary assembly and he's on the line so is color who goal the new york times bureau chief and i think keleti you are actually on the border what's happening at the moment they they're in today three and the pushing in but they haven't got very far they've they've entered to several miles into our free in this two kurdish enclave of northern syria but they're taking that time they using air jetson unborn quite lord but the going quite slowly so far towards we march in the town of our but they're not there yet because they have had a casualty overnight the.
"chief economist" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410
"With your even forty dead news headlines on keep leads a video posted on youtube joe's oregon state police talked with the suspect accused of starting the massive eagle creek fire the columbia river gorge on saturday it's been identified as a fifteen year old boy who was setting off illegal fireworks the video post by a witness showed police talking to that suspect his careless nail legal actions are believed to have ignited the you go creek canyon fire oregon state police said the suspect was contacted by law enforcement of the parking lot of the eagle creek trail head just as the fire started on saturday that team has not been arrested no formal charges have been filed at this time thus to leave the teen and others were using fireworks along the eagle creek trailed troopers are asking anyone who were firework drug or explosions on saturday near the eagle creek trail or punchbowl falls to notify them that the oregon state police officers four the money station on key points chief economist at the renaissance macro well just to reiterate vice chair fan stanley fischer has announced his resignation from the federal reserve effective mid october uh cited personal reasons joining me in studio here are michael mckee are economics editor matt buzzer who recovers the fed uh marta schenker executive senior executive editor and now we've got carl riccadonna our uh economists for bloomberg intelligence so carl go ahead e on pounds worth a penny go ahead what are your thoughts about all this sure well this the the unwritten rule of being the vicechair is dead thou shalt not disagree with the chair so what yellen goes from having a defect defacto two votes on the committee having just one which means that she's going to have a harder push to convince policymakers to stay on course for rate hike by end so i think this says significantly reduces said those those chances as a number of other voting members of the committee including governor brainard yesterday expressed reserve about any additional lower rate tightening and this is the the.
"chief economist" Discussed on Vox's The Weeds
"We are so focused on what the trump administration is doing that i think it is sometimes hard to keep an eye on what they are not doing there is no economic theory currently animating the trump administration and their policies except for a generalised orientation towards deregulation they don't have a chief economist like the caa does not have a a chief economist appointed to it they are not running any kind of overall theory i mean towards the end of the obama administration as you know there was something interesting beating papin their caa with jason furhman around trying to look at some of this monopolistic stafan and trying to think about how to do it they began talking about occupational licensing and and trying to develop again like okay we did all this stimulus and financial rescue things clearly and fix the economy even averted or worse catastrophe what do we have to do next and and something i do think is a pity on right now and and the failure is it there is no work in any serious way happening in the trump indecision to diagnose the problems in theory he ran on and come up with something to do about them they want to do tax reform but they do not know what kind or really why they want to deregulate 'cause like their friends don't like regulations but again it's not a targeted kind of approach and i just this is bad like be these these papers was saying there's something deeply fundamentally wrong in the american economy even if the economy as a whole is still growing okay and still creating jobs and so even grading income and i am not sure that there i think we are justin appeared in the trump administration of drift on this might be considered part of the for back half obama when they did not have really the power to pass much but this is not.
"chief economist" Discussed on AP News
"Chief economist gospel shea calls the lives jobs report excellent not only did we had a lot of jobs over the month but we also saw average hourly earnings rise we saw upward revisions to job growth in may and april as well in economy is added about one hundred ninety four thousand jobs on average over the last three months which is a very good number because the labor department report wasn't expected to be bad but they weren't expecting it to be so good this is above expectations and so certainly if the economies creating two hundred thousand jobs a month that means that we're quickly absorbing slack in the labour market and the unemployed people were being put back to work despite the big game the jobless rate still matched up a tenth of a percent to four point four percent something jose says isn't a bad thing because it means more time out of work americans resumed their search we saw about three hundred and sixty thousand more people in the labor force in in june from may uh that means people are feeling more confident than the job market uh and so that should be taken as a good sign that people are feeling their prospects of getting the job or good in so they're coming back to look for work however while more jobs are being created the rate of pay is not corresponding and he says there are a couple of reasons why average pay rose just two and a half percent in june one percent below the pace typical of a healthy economy inflation is low so if we look at after inflation wages they they look a little bit better but also businesses are reluctant to raise pay up but i think is is the job market gets tighter is businesses compete more for workers we will see stronger wage growth and so i think by this time next year will see wage growth of above three percent robust jobs report means the us economy remains resilience and could signal another interest rate hike from.