36 Burst results for "chief economist"
Fresh update on "chief economist" discussed on Bloomberg Markets
"Right great Jerry Thank you so much We appreciate that Let's check in with a long time contributor to Bloomberg markets Hugh Johnson chairman chief economist a great point LLC First of all what is the great point LLC What happened to Hugh Johnson advisers for like a gajillion years Well that's a good question We merged our company with a company called bender lane which was a family office business and then we decided to have a give it one name for the two But we've kept a huge onset advisers as a division of and I'm sort of the chairman emeritus of great point and chief economist at great point and I'm also the best I understand it The chairman of Hugh Johnson advisers and the chief economist the Hugh Johnson advisers and the chief investment officer huge Johnson All right we're just going to go Yeah we're just going to go the chairman And everybody knows you're chairman Mister chairman yeah that's good Mister So what do you make of this world we're living in now I mean it's been such a crazy 20 months here with the pandemic and the economic disruption and now the reopening But it just seems like there's one monthly wrench thrown in after another and it's gotta be tough to kind of forecast where this economy is going What are your best thoughts at the moment Well the best thoughts are really number one as you get some surprises thrown at us and that's a part of financial market history and of course with the COVID-19 kind of surprise we've been sent with on the ground right now That's a surprise Very causal a great deal of volatility That's one surprise In the second surprise of course is some of the comments made by chairman Paul which seemed to move up the time in which is going to begin to taper and then of course the time they're going to begin to start to raise interest rates These are surprises create great level of volatility And I would just urge all investors to just try to look through all of that volatility And we'll start to get some real answers on COVID We're going to real answers on monetary policy over the course of a little bit of time now But let's let those things settle out and recognize A more important thing is to recognize look we are in a cycle a stock market economic interest rate cycle It's very normal by past cycles We're at the 20 month Mark We're really not far into it And really all of the kind of the levers when you're looking at leading indicators for the economy look at the yield curve and what it tells you about what the economy has in store for the next 12 months It's still very positive The cycle has further to go and it's going to have a little bit of volatility created by these issues these exogenous unexpected issues along the way It just kind of just kind of put those on the back burner and make sure you pay attention to the fact that you underlying cycle and where we are in that cycle and then make your investment decisions asset allocation on the basis of that Yes we had a great story by Matthew Beau a couple days ago about how fat corporate profit margins are We haven't seen margins this fat since the 50s And yet it looks like investors so you've got the pajama investors the pajama traders who buy the dip for us every night but it does look like sell first ask questions later is the afternoon mantra You know you get you have a group of investors There's very volatile price sensitive investors And that's not all of them That's a really a small group of them I mean they were talking about 10% of all the investors that are involved in these markets that are just extremely edgy and they create a lot of the volatility that you're seeing because they respond to all of the news that comes out And I'm just saying you know okay that's fine They're going to be investors like that They're always have been They're always will be But I think the majority of investors quite frankly have a little bit more sensible are not caught up in that kind of volatility And that's exactly what they should do They should basically set their portfolios on the basis of what is really going on or what the underlying fundamentals and the underlying cycle is doing And that's really the most important thing So don't get caught up in that day to today volatility even though I'm sure all of us kind of emotionally do get caught up in it All right Hugh you've got more than 40 years of experience in this game here What's your outlook for 2022 It's positive but you got to keep in mind I think one thing that's sort of a basic fact And that has since the bottom in 2009 the average annualized rate of return has been over 18% Look that's just a big number And that's not going to continue So my outlook is positive In other words I think the economy is going to continue to expand although it's going to slow I think the same thing is true of earnings And so you should maintain you should maintain a positive view of the equity markets In other words a meaningful allocation to equities but recognize one important fact And that is we're going from a high return environment that's 2020 for sure And we're going to a low return environment My outlook or prospects for 2022 are quite frankly low three to 5% single digit return Okay Don't worry about that because I think you're going to be I'm going to be running on earnings earnings are going to come in higher than I'm expecting in which case the market will do a little bit better than I'm expecting but don't look for anything more than single digit returns and equities will outperform fixed income So you should over allocate to equities All right Thank you so much for joining us once again Hugh Johnson chairman chief economist and a bunch of other stuff at great point LLC over 40 years in the business Bloomberg markets has brought you by the Jewish communal fund JCS donor advised fund is the smart choice to manage your philanthropy Open a JCF fund now to lock in a 2021 tax deduction visit JCF and why Dot org this is Bloomberg.
October existing home sales hit fastest pace since January
"Houses are continuing to sell within days of going on the market sales of existing homes are up and so is the typical price of a house last month the average home prices jumped to almost three hundred fifty four thousand dollars a thirteen point one percent increase from last October existing home sales were up eight tenths of a percent from September that's according to the national association of realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun says the housing market remains strong he credits job growth the stock market at all time highs and low mortgage rates I'm Rita fall lay
'You Will Be Assimilated' Author David Goldman on China's Contempt for the U.S.
"China is not an enemy. And I think that's important for people to clearly understand. China is a rising power, China has been a rising power since Deng Xiaoping in 79. And they are going to develop themselves in our developing themselves into a great power. That is not to say, however, that they are an enemy. They're not an enemy. They're just a great power. That's according to the chairman of the joint chiefs when he was speaking in his private capacity as chief of staff of the army. The NATO summit, maybe that explains a lot about Mark Billy. We'll discuss the realities of what China thinks they are to us and how they're eating our lunch with the man that we always rely upon to tell us about the geo strategic reality in Asia and in Beijing. He's the author of a fabulous work you must check out right now. It's you will be assimilated. China's plan to Sino form the world. David Goldman. Welcome to one on one. A sub gorka it is an honor and privilege to spend fine with you, sir. Thanks for the invitation. I just realized I'm looking at the cover of your book that the Chinese dragon has a pair of iPhone ear pods in. That's a very nice little touch there. I missed in the past. David, we'll talk about Millie. We'll talk about the truth of China Beijing. Xi Jinping and everything else. But first, I have to ask you. The imagery of these super cargo ships off the port of LA, the president of the United States saying, oh, no, don't worry about it. And then Jen Psaki saying, oh, that's a high class issue. People having the Christmas present. So that's, you know, the pipes don't worry about that. Let me ask you, let's think like the Chinese Communist Party for a moment. What does China think of the fact that America can't unload its cargo ships? The Chinese have contempt for us. They think they can take us. We just published an a four times an excerpt from a book by Chinese economist used to be the chief economist of the World Bank Chicago university PhD. Who says, look at history. Look at the United States versus England at the end of the 19th century. The English were lazy complacent and the United States come from behind, took them out and ate their lunch. That's exactly what we're going to do to the United States now. We've got the people. We've got the supply chains. We've got the technology. We've got the will to do it. America's lazy and feckless and their right for the
Delta variant and worker shortage keep a lid on job growth
"September's jobs growth was the lowest of any month of this year as many companies continued struggling to fill millions of open positions employers added just one hundred ninety four thousand jobs the second straight tepid game and the fewest since they cut jobs in December the job survey was taken in early September when delta very in cases were rising the virus still dominates every single month of economic activity grants the wind chief economist Diane Swonk was among those forecasting a much bigger game still president Biden is touting real progress noting a sharp unemployment rate dropped to four point eight percent maybe done seem fast enough I'd like to see it faster we're going to make it faster the jobless rate fell in part because while more people found jobs fewer looked for work despite a record high job openings Sager made Connie Washington
"chief economist" Discussed on Rocketship.fm
Shortages of Supplies and Workers Will Delay Gulf Rebuilding
"Now the rebuild the Louisiana residents are being warned that repairing hurricane I does damage isn't going to be easy my expectation is that it only gets worse from here that's what a real estate agent research firm chief economist says about reconstruction in the region hit by hurricane ida homeowners have been calling about damaged roofs or to get an update on renovations that were scheduled before the storm Joe Sobel the owner of big easy construction in New Orleans says he's got bad news the job will cost a lot more than usual and take a lot longer and one roofing company owner says I've spent more time fighting with insurance companies over prices than I did roofing houses building contractors were already grappling with severe shortages of workers and supplies when IT hit I'm ready to fall late
R.I.P. Going Back to the Office
"Great to sort out. We should say that we are not talking about all workers here. There are a lot of jobs that cannot be done remotely if you are a dentist or a barista or a chef or a carpenter or a surgeon you basically have to show up in real life to do. Your job is true. It's estimated that about half of jobs in the united states can be done remotely so that's kind of what we're debating here. The fee of that one half of working americans. Yes in to help us figure out this fate. I called up in economist. Who has a foot in several different parts of the job market low. My name is adam os. Mac and the chief economist. At up work you are also a business owner. yes. I have a couple of businesses. I am one of the owners of the bowling alley restaurant arcade. I am of the partners in join cat. Events which runs beer fests and i am one of the owners of kempner scott shoes which is the country's oldest children's shoe company. Oh my god adam like what do you do. You have free time. You know my secret is i. Don't like sports and so there you go secret to life. Don't like sports so we asked adam. Are we going back to the office. I mean things have changed radically over the past year and a half but the office you know it evolved over decades it is powerfully entrenched in our culture and in our psyches. Not only that. Adam points out that traditionally there has been a kind of stigma around remote work and remote workers. There's a great paper by emma harrington at harvard about how workers were sort of viewed it firms before the pandemic in how often there is sort of a stigma associated with it. I mean you can certainly see it in media. Portrayals like there is the episode of the simpsons in the nineties where a homer was trying to worker working at home taking breaks and everyone's like drinking beer in the middle of the day.
Payrolls Increase 943,000 in July as Unemployment Rate Slides to 5.4%
"Was high and unemployment significantly lower in the month just ended. There's word this morning that a very strong nine hundred forty three thousand more people were added to payrolls in july. A parallel government survey of households finds the unemployment rate down to five point four percent christopher lows the chief economist at fhm financial in new york. Not only nine hundred forty three thousand payroll jobs. But actually some pretty hefty upward revisions to may and june as well so the net job gain was over a million. The unemployment rate dropped by half a percent. It's very unusual to see any month. Where the unemployment rate drops more than three tenths. In fact the only time. I can recall. A bigger drop was in the immediate months after the lockdown last year. So this is real progress putting people back to work
Biden's Spending Plans to Increase Inflation
"Walking back. I am joined by brian. Westbury of i trust portfolio is the chief economist for i trust portfolio. You can follow him on twitter at westbury brian. I are going to atlanta and october to talk about the biden. Inflation and brian i am. This is so counterintuitive inflation went up and the ten year treasury went down. It is now at one point two. Oh nine percent at the lowest. I've ever seen it. Can you explain for the steelers fans and indeed me how it is that inflation can be on. everyone's mind. The ten year treasury dropped the one point two percent. I mean you there. There were a bunch of things going on what happened And we have the new delta variants out there. we have We we have the potential of a slowing economy. We have the biden administer administration and congress working on another three and a half trillion dollars spending you know and when you put all that together what what i think. A lot of investors were worried that we could shut down the economy again over that delta variant or That we were going to have a much slower growing economy as spending waned You know government spending government stimulus weight. And so i think that helped like worry. Investors that the economy would slow down but i think the real reason that the ten year treasury yield is so low and in fact a whole what we call the yield curve. Everything from three months to six months to one year. Five years seven years ten year twenty year bonds. is that the federal reserve is promising to hold short-term interest rate at zero. That's where it is. And so if you sort of think about this. If the fed says we are going to hold short-term interest rates at zero for three years well that means the three year treasury yield. well also be zero
U.S. Economy Added 559,000 Jobs in May
"To date. We are asking the all important question who matters more to bitcoin the whales or the plebs first up. Let's do the brief. I on the brief today. We have the jobs report for may and it's kind of mixed news. Us employers added five hundred fifty nine thousand jobs last month which is less than expected but up from two hundred and seventy eight thousand in april but still down from march when seven hundred and eighty five thousand. Jobs were added. Mattielo zeti the chief economist. For which a bank said quote. It's the middle of the road report. It is disappointing relative to where we were a few months ago where we were anticipating. You could see a million plus type prints over these coming months. We've had to ratchet down our expectations. About what job. Gains are likely to be going forward and this should matter to you if you're in the bitcoin space because it has a meaningful impact on monetary policy going forward aggressive accommodative monetary policy has allowed stock valuations to rise as high as they are pushed people farther out on the risk curve a booming market featuring full employment and high inflation would force the fed to change those policies as rates rose stock prices and risk on assets in general could see a fall and bitcoin is enough of a macro asset. Now that it would likely be caught in some of that however the fed has signaled that until jobs are fully recovered degree much farther than this. They'll be keeping policies. The seem even at the cost of a little extra inflation
US Job Growth Slows Sharply in Sign of Hiring Struggles
"The job market recovery hit a bump last month with hiring sharply down from March after adding nine hundred sixteen thousand jobs in March employers added just two hundred sixty six thousand last month your employment report was severely disappointing while many analysts predicted a gain of nearly a million jobs as virus restrictions ease stand more businesses reopened grant Thorton chief economist Diane Swonk says there were losses across the board except in the hospitality sector she says this doesn't mean the recovery has stalled it means people need to temper their expectations amid optimism it's a marathon not a sprint and yet this marathon just lost a little wind will get more soccer make ani Washington
Retailers Try to Hire Tens of Thousands of Workers
"We're looking for a big jump in retail sales as consumers who got him cashed those $1400 virus relief checks. High retail sales, of course, could mean will be seeing a whole bunch more retail job openings, which would be a good thing. Dollar general in point of fact. Just announced it's looking to hire up to 20,000 people. Other chains IHOP, Taco Bell and McDonald's among them are on hiring sprees as well. But even with the labor market as loose as it's been retailers or having a hard time finding people marketplaces, Marielle Segarra explains, what's going on. We talked a lot about pent up demand this idea that people will spend more money when they get vaccinated that they'll go to restaurants and buy clothes to wear those restaurants and on vacations. Andy, Challenger, Challenger, Gray and Christmas, says retailers are preparing for this. These employers are clearly anticipating a huge surge in demand through the summer through the end of the year as people start to feel safe. But that doesn't mean potential Retail workers feel safe, Shawn Ashworth AlixPartners says. A lot of people are worried about getting sick and they're asking themselves Do I want to go back into retail and work in an environment with high contact with other employees and customers? Or do I want to consider work from home job? A lot of people who used to work in retail have probably found other jobs at home or not. Jed Kolko is chief economist at indeed, during insured when retail wasn't hiring many people, other sectors were manufacturing, warehousing, driving, jobs, Pharmacy and other help Your lady jobs. One obvious way for retailers to attract workers would be to offer more money. And Andy Challenger says some are giving bonuses. But when you look at like small retailers, small restaurants, those businesses have been under enormous pressure for a year. It's been a really, really difficult environment. It's easier for the big retailers. Mariel Sierra for
IMF Upgrades Forecast for 2021 Global Growth to a Record 6%
"A new International Monetary Fund report foresees appeared of global economic growth ahead the IMF says the rollout of coded nineteen vaccines involve sums of government aid will this year kickstart growth to a record high in the powerful rebound from the pandemic recession the one hundred ninety country lending agency says it expects the world economy to expand by six percent in twenty twenty one up from the five point five it did full cost in January it would be the fastest expansion for the global economy in IMF records dating back to nineteen eighty I am F. chief economist Gita Gopinath told reporters a way out of this health and economic crises is increasingly visible I'm Charles through this month
Biden Administration To Tackle Economic Disparities Caused By COVID-19
"The pandemic made existing economic inequalities in this country even worse. So what does the biden administration plan to do about that. Npr's asia roscoe talk to john jones chief economist at the labor department and the first black woman to hold that job employers added more than nine hundred thousand jobs last month. That's a banner number for any administration and the unemployment rate dropped to six percent but general jones. The first black woman to serve as the top economists for the labor department says you have to dig further into those numbers whenever someone tells me a headline number or tells me the economy is doing really well. My immediate follow up question is for who and who's being left behind and who is not included. The answer as it has been for years is a lot of the country that is not white or male with the growth in vaccinations. Businesses like restaurants and hotels are making more money and hiring more people. Jones says that's good news for black. And latino women who are over represented in the leisure and hospitality sector. Still unemployment only failed to seven point nine percent for latinos and nine point six percent for african americans if the overall unemployment rate was nine point six percent for all workers we would be running around with our heads on fire that is crisis levels of unemployment and jones says that even a return to pre pandemic jobless levels will not be good enough for many people. During the trump administration the low unemployment that preceded. The pandemic was promoted as a top accomplishment. Here's former president trump. In his farewell address we reignited. America's job creation and achieved record low unemployment for african americans hispanic americans. Asian americans women almost everyone but even at those historic levels. African american unemployment was still about double white unemployment for jones. Those sorts of details are significant
Good Friday Delays Market Reaction to March Employment Report
"Good Friday holiday. But it is not completely quiet today, with the government releasing the March employment report. Of course, there won't be any market reaction to that until Monday. It is good Friday being the holiday, some questioning why the jobs report by the government is being released on a holiday. Well, the government follows a very strict schedule. It takes its household surveys during the week that contains the 12th of the month. And then it always releases the report on the third Friday following that week, so every few years it comes out on good Friday. According to Goldman Sachs chief economist Young Hotsy is it should paint a picture of an improving labor market? What seeing acceleration in the numbers as the economy reopens, and you can see it in some of the most covert affected sectors, and we'll also getting a boost from the tax free dates that went out a couple weeks ago. So all of that should really give us I think strongest growth rates of the year if consensus forecasts are correct the U. S economy and it's 675,000 nonfarm jobs last Ones. With the unemployment rate dropping from 6.2% down to 6%. However, some of the more optimistic forecasts are calling for job additions of one million or more. CNBC's Peter
Florida Gov. DeSantis slams CDC rules keeping cruise industry shuttered
"Approved for teenagers then Florida's economy continues its slow recovery. Florida seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February, 2021 was 4.7%. The state's chief economist, Adrian Johnson, says that number went down 1/10 of a percent from January most jobs. Lost in our state over the past year came in the leisure and hospitality industry. When theme park shut down, they have re opened. But the cruise ship industry remains largely closed by a no sale order by the CDC. Governor De Santis criticized that, saying the feds have offered no
The Jobs Numbers: Who's Hiring in America
"Hundred and forty. Five thousand is the number of the day on this thursday. At of course is the number of new applications for state unemployment benefits filed last week astronomically high as i think i've been saying every single thursday for going on a year now. The bureau of labor statistics is going to hit us with the jobs report for the month of february tomorrow. Another snapshot of how this economy is doing as a whole good in parts. Not so good in others. One part of the labor market. That is doing all right. Actually manufacturing marketplace's andy euler going where the jobs are. The john deere engine in tractor museum in waterloo iowa celebrates the history of mechanized agriculture but the museums hosting an event. This weekend. That is very much about the present a job. Fair randy venzke labor relations manager at john deere's waterloo works where they make those big yellow and green tractors the jobs that were currently focusing on our your general assembly. Some well living in some machining jobs. He says the company started its hiring push back in december quickly had over a thousand applicants. And we're able to fill more than two hundred jobs since then you know. The number of applications have really dropped off fact. We've received about hundred hundred ten applications in the past two weeks. He says they're trying to hire about three hundred more people by april problem is there's only about one hundred thirty thousand people in the county in unemployment is currently under four percent across the. Us manufacturing activity is up increasing three year high in february as consumer demand rebounded after the early stages of the pandemic manufacturing's been growing not quite for a year but for the last nine months. David berson is chief economist at nationwide insurance. Because it's been growing has needed workers and they're starting to run out of workers for whom manufacturing jobs or the appropriate physician and jed cocoa chief economist. The job website indeed dot com says. There's a skills mismatch between those hiring. And those seeking employment sectors have laid people off service leisure tourism and the sectors that have done a lot of hiring endemic manufacturing warehouse. Construction do require somewhat different skills and he says those industries that initially lay people off this time last year are starting to hire people back. I may dealer for marketplace a little bit lost in the news. Firehose today was data on fourth quarter worker. Productivity widgets produced for our work to is the very simple formula down four point two percent october through december the biggest drop in forty years. Not great. no but this is a little bit misleading in terms of understanding. What's going on you aren't s. Q is at the university of pennsylvania school of social policy and practice businesses that were not as productive normally just by the nature of the activity such as restaurants and so on have started reopening. So that drags down the average productivity and today's numbers not entirely unexpected. Well that's happening. There is what we call a regression to the mean. Now why are we telling you. This is amount of zilder is at the conference board. It is a basis for future living standards if productivity rises sustainably. That means that down the line Wages are going to be increasing on a more steady stable basis and so from the history matters filed this bit of context. Productivity growth was really sluggish after the great recession wage growth back then also super sluggish as well
Attacks briefly knock some podcast hosts offline
"Browns bean spreaker and captivate all subjects to eight to nile attack. The same attackers appear to have been involved. We were wondering why they targeted podcast hosts so we talked to them. You'll find that full report in our show notes and our newsletter today. A company called. Happy scribe is publishing automated transcripts of podcasters without the parent's consent of many of the publishers. We learned today. Cumulus media owner of westwood. One has its achieved more than one billion downloads. In two thousand twenty podcasting revenue grew forty percent last year to they say. They've made their bet on partnership arrangements with talent as opposed to going out and spending a lot of money on it or infrastructure the company uses spotify owned megaphone backtracks has launched a tool that monitors your head gesture movements. The tool requires the listener to be using airpods pro headphones investor. Andrew wilkinson says in a tweet. He's removing podcasts. From his phone because podcastone mostly people repeating ideas. You already agree with or talking about things that trigger anxiety. He's co founder of tiny capital which invests in ios podcast app castro podcast membership platform super fast and podcast producer. Righto media try and digital has released the latest podcast ranker's for the us and latin. America they're incomplete ranker's containing participating publishers only notably the ranker's don't include. I heart radio podcasts. Triton digital is being bought by the company echoing the open independent nature of podcasting and writing in the financial times fulmer spotify chief economist will page notes that major labels released one point two million songs in two thousand and twenty but diy artists released nine point five million songs the music industry. He says he's making more money but has more mouths to feed. Iv is a new podcast app. That offers a way to follow. Topics tags hosts or podcasts. Catholic part is also a new podcast for android with a great name. Mavi star homa smart speaker in spain from canada now incorporates. I've is podcast catalog. And i will be speaking at the rain. Podcast business summit with npr's. Brian moffatt tickets are free and available now from link in our show notes and our newsletter. Today and in paul cost us the journal has an interview with dominion voting systems. Ceo john pelos today. His company has filed three defamation lawsuits against tv networks. Saying his excellently. One hundred percent accurate and very handsome. Voting machines are perfect. Which of course they absolutely are and nassar's curious universe is the first podcast recorded on another planet if features raw recorded sounds from the mars perseverance rover
South Africa halts AstraZeneca vaccine rollout
"South africa has halted its rollout of the oxford astrazeneca vaccine just a week after the country received. Its first million doses. It seems the vaccine offers limited protection against a new variant of the corona virus. That's now dominant in the country. Salim abdul karim co-chair of south africa's ministerial advisory committee on covid nineteen spoke to a world health organization briefing yesterday. We don't want to end up with a situation where we vaccinated million people too. Many people would have vaccine that may not be effective in preventing hospitalization and severe disease in total more than one point. Two billion corona virus doses have been allocated for the continent. But it's not clear when all those jobs will arrive. The longer any region remains unvaccinated. The greater the chance that more variants arise vaccines though can be tweaked in a formulation of the oxford vaccine targeted at the south african variant could be going into arms by autumn. What scientists cannot address is the long run damage to africa both in human and economic terms so far continent to have been spared from the worst case scenarios predicted early on in the pandemic but the longer term picture remains bleak many ways the impact of the pandemic and africa is worse than it appears on the surface around the official numbers. Kenley salmon is one of our africa correspondent based in dakar. It is the case that having a young population has to some extent protected the continent from the virus africans and died from it that americans europeans but the true scott of infection. Death is really hard to gauge. Studying sudan recently showed the perhaps only two percent of all the covid desk for a quoted in the official tally and the economic impact is worse than it looks last year. The region's economy shrank for the first time. In twenty five years tourism has been badly hit as have commodity exporters things like oil in nigeria and taken together. Gdp per capita fell below twenty ten levels last year so things are perhaps not quite as bad as some other parts the world but certainly still very tough and things may get tougher house. What are the particular challenges to africa. Africa faces quite a number of challenges in the next few years as it tries to recover from the pandemic but the biggest i of the really is vaccines. Some african governments have perhaps failed to grasp the urgency of the situation in tanzania for example the populace president john food even casually cast out with a vaccine work but i do forgive aside claiming the postman precautions such as steaming nation were better than vaccines and even added that if the white man was able to come up with next nations then. Vaccinations for aids. Malaria and cancer would have already been found. So it's not so much a question than of supply. I mean given that quite a few vaccines have been essentially booked at the stage. A number of vaccines have been booked but the big question is when will they arrive because right now there aren't anywhere near the number of axes required forever on in the world and rich countries are of course the front of the queue for those vaccines have been produced africa's going to need perhaps two point six billion doses to vaccinate everyone and those are not being made locally so they have to rely on supplies elsewhere for the moment so that means joining the queue. All this means that whereas rich countries aim to vaccinate most of their people by the middle of this year the african. cdc a public health. Bali in africa's aiming for sixty percent of africans to vaccinated by the end of next year. But even that may be too optimistic. For the poorest countries. The economist intelligence unit sister organization estimates that in most african countries most people will not be inoculated until mid twenty twenty three or even early twenty twenty four and there must be serious consequences of it being that long until the continent is on average vaccinated. Africa is likely. It doesn't get those vaccinations into suffer. Further waves of the infection while after the disease may have amped in the rich world. And that of course will cause more death and more suffering. Doesn't risk that. Having the virus transmitting between people frequently africa could allow new variance to evolve. We've already got the south. African variant and these new variants could endanger people even in rich countries if they prove to be resistant to vaccines and then finally of course not having vaccines could force. African policymakers to continue with these very difficult economic lockdowns curfews even after many other countries around the world set free of those kinds of restrictions and if the public health concern lasts that long then surely the economic concerns will last at least that long. That's right in many african countries facing pretty severe crises at the moment just getting finance to pay their bills. Africa has very limited fiscal space on average countries in sub saharan africa. Spending more than thirty cents on every dollar. They raise and text revenue paying their debts. And that's up from twenty cents on the dollar before the pandemic on the debt side to over half of low income sub saharan african countries are now classed as in distress or at high risk of distress. According to the imf and what about countries with bigger economies the two biggest economies in africa nigeria and south ever both in pretty deep trouble nigeria for example was described by the world. Bank is being an unprecedented crisis. Recently the bank is not normally quite so blunt in nigeria. There has been a legacy of management for a number of years and pandemics really accessible that quite badly. Now focused suggested by twenty twenty three. Gdp per capita may go back as low as it was in one thousand nine hundred eighty time when the oil price was some high on so africa too is in trouble that have been in recession twice in the last three years before the pandemic hit of course now is dribbling itself with a particularly heavy toll from the pandemic so both countries in fact are facing a difficult road out of the crisis. And what about outside help in terms of financing has been quite a bit of outside help although the crisis of course is very big but in twenty twenty the imf for example provided sixteen billion dollars in loans most of that came with relatively few strings attached and this help frigging countries to respond to the pandemic to avoid some of the liquidity crises that were looming the world bank also dispersed another ten billion but many countries got that funding to if the imf under emergency allocations that came quickly and relatively easily and those allocations for many countries will soon be exhausted. The rich world has been trying to help when it comes to debt. They've provided liquidity to countries through some bits of suspension initiative that basically allows poor countries to put off debt repayments until july. Twenty twenty one. This is of course helpful but the trouble is that those payments just suspended and they have to be paid back with interest in about five years time so as the chief economist for africa the world bank put it to us. It may just be kicking the can down the road to. How do you see this playing out. Then how high could the human cost of all this be while the stakes are pretty high. The pandemic has already done lower damage to people's health and africa. it's hitting their economic prospects and they wealth and it's also affecting education of course. Hundreds of millions of students in africa have been affected by school closures. This increases the risk of dropouts and reduces the prospects for africa's largest every generation so overall the costs here really quite significant. There are some reasons for optimism. We may see vaccine rollouts accelerate. There's also hopes that commodity price rises could give africa real boost as the global economy recovers been on balance. The evidence probably points to at pretty difficult road ahead with several more waves of the virus hitting already struggling health systems and perhaps a form of economic long covert in africa. So you know africans have come through this showing remarkable resilience but it may be toughest years are still to come in. Thank you very much for joining us. thank you
The most important 4-letter word in this economy: jobs
"Begin with the most important four letter word in this economy it is of course j o b s jobs about which we got the january report this morning so seventeen days into a new administration thirty six days into a new year three hundred and thirty five ish days into the pandemic economy counting as we are from mid march last year. This is where things stand. Yes we added forty nine thousand jobs last month and yes. The unemployment rate is down to six point three percent but we are still nearly ten million jobs underwater from where we started and also yes. I know that was a lot of numbers. But as i believe we've mentioned a time or two and as marketplace's mitchell hartman is about to remind us numbers can tell you. Think you're too but wearing economy stance. There are a lot of numbers in monthly jobs. Report it's kind of dizzying. So i asked each of the economists. I shoot the jobs data over with today to pick just one indicator that shows where the economy is eleven months into the pandemic one number that slams you between the eyes twelve and a half million. That's kurt long. Chief economist at the national association of federally insured credit unions. And he's referring to the total number of jobs where in the whole since the pandemic hit in the jobs report. That's ten million however if we had not been going through what we've been going through the past. Nearly twelve months the economy would have kept growing and long reckons. It would have added another two and a half million jobs. Jobs needed to keep up with population growth for new high school and college. Grads immigrants new parents returning to work and a half million jobs. That's an enormous deficit of course and at the pace we're going is just not nearly fast enough to eat into that and now the number. That slams elise gould at the economic policy institute between the is three point. Nine million jobs down. That's how many jobs we are still missing in the hard hit and often poorly paid leisure and hospitality sector people who don't have an adequate safety net because their wages have been low for so long. Now let's talk about unemployment. officially that's ten million americans who don't have job and are actively looking but mark hamrick banchory says that doesn't count a lot of people who are not working because of cova danger or childcare needs. We have another thirteen million. Who are either out of the labor force and want to work or who are underemployed. Working part time. I would like to have full time work at him up. He pegs the total unemployed at about twenty three million. That's about one in seven. Americans who had a job before the pandemic started
"chief economist" Discussed on Newsradio 970 WFLA
"Spot more than 12,000. People have been vaccinated against Cove in 19 so far in Pinellas, including nursing home residents and staff and first responders. Gordon Byrd News radio W F L A Hillsborough County has announced no plans yet for giving vaccines Pascoe, Manatee and Sarasota counties have started inoculating people by appointment. Renters in some parts of Florida may be able to find a cheaper place to live. The rental demand. Isn't there like it was in the last few years, arriving vacancies in The fallen one. Igor Pop off, the chief economist at apartment list says that does not include the Tampa Bay area. Pop off predicts that is the vaccine rolls out. Rent prices will stabilize and could start increasing the usual New Year's Eve. Warning. Don't drink and drive gets additions Thanks to the Corona virus pandemic, if you're planning to ring in the new year take steps to prevent the spread of covert 19. Florida attorney general, actually Moody, they're nearly 630 fatalities from impaired driving crashes involving drugs or alcohol have happened on Florida Road so far this year. No city fireworks shows means more people shooting them off at home. And means more mishaps. Never let your Children player ignite fireworks. Sparklers are specially dangerous for kids as thieves can burn at very high temperatures crossing third degree burns. Miami Dade County Fire Rescue's Erica Benitez also reminds you light fireworks on pavement away from grass and plants and never tried to relight malfunctioning fireworks with Florida's news. I'm John Mc Weston. Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell says if specific, struggling households still need more help than the Senate will consider smart, targeted aid in the future. But for now, McConnell has all but shut the door on the $2000 Cove in 19 relief checks called for by President Trump and Democrats in the House. Markets are ending a tumultuous year on a quiet note, where the major indexes fluctuating between small losses and gains in volume. That's about 40% below average for the time of day. It was not a good year to bet against Tesla's short sellers, who make money when the stock falls lost billions more on the electric vehicle maker than any other company in 2020, as bears got severely burned by the stock surged to new highs, with Tesla's shares up over 730% Tesla bears have seen more than $38 billion in losses this year. You're according to data from S three partners checking regional stocks. Brown and Brown up. 1.5% Marine Max Down 1.9% JBL gaining just over 1% from the Bloomberg newsroom. I'm mark Mills for news radio. W F L A W F L A News is brought to you by Titan Plumbing and Electric Fox News. I'm Karen McCue stimulus checks and a veto override of the National Defense Authorization Act. The Senate has a lot of work to do before the year ends. The Senate appears to.
"chief economist" Discussed on KQED Radio
"23rd Day of December. Good as always to have you along, everybody. We are going to dispense with the president's remarks last night about changes he wants made to the virus relief bill that Congress finally passed on Monday after months of negotiations. We are going to dispense with it With this observation. It's all fun and games and political intrigue until somebody gets hurt. And people are getting hurt all over the place in this economy as we have been telling you for months, and we got more evidence of that this morning, courtesy of the Commerce Department. We learn consumer spending fell nearly half a percent last month, the first time it has fallen since April thing how long ago that was, and it same time, personal income fell by a little bit more than a full percent, the third decline in four months. No mystery. Why right? Government aid has been keeping people afloat and that aid is running out. So to get us going market places him at the fields looks at what that is going to mean for this economy. This time of year is normally when people spend more money. Carlton and bound chief economist at Northern Trust, says the fact that personal income and consumer spending dropped in November Is a bad omen. It does give a pretty good sense that households are not going into the new year and very strong shape and adds to the urgency around the negotiations in Washington. Consumer spending crashed in March and April but then bounced most of the way back. Largely thanks to government aid back in April, after the cares act, there was a huge pop in personal income. Head. Rossman is an industry analyst at credit cards dot com and a lot of that did trickle down toe other sectors of the economy, he says. Over the summer, A lot of people felt like things were getting better. But now maybe those unemployment checks have dried up. They've long since spent their first stimulus check. Maybe they're not able to go back to work, and people are nervous after months of uncertainty over whether the federal government would provide more relief, says Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo takes a long time to build up consumer confidence and not so long to disrupt it or to shake it. And when people have less confidence and income, they're less likely to spend their money. Carlton in Balham at Northern Trust, says that is a bad combination. The spending done by households accounts for almost 70% of our annual gross domestic product, our national income, and if it's not recovering, he says, neither will the economy. I'm Samantha Fields for marketplace. One more thing about the will he or won't he signed the relief bill Question, which is again the wrong question to ask a better question. It might reasonably be asked since government funding runs out on December 28th if he doesn't sign it. What's the plan for this economy if the government shuts down in the middle of a pandemic? Wall Street today. Basically ignore the president of the United States will have the details when we do the numbers. Mm hmm. Mm hmm. In that relief bill, which I don't know. I mean, he's probably gonna sign right. There is money for a whole new traunch of Paycheck protection program loans. You will remember, though, that the first round of p p p money didn't roll out all that smoothly. So marketplaces Justin Ho, who has been on this story from the very beginning talked ins talk to some small business owners about the pros and cons. Of applying all over again. The new paycheck protection program that Congress is proposing would allow restaurants in hospitality businesses to take out bigger loans. Mark Friar owns three restaurants in Vermont. He says he'd like to spend more on supporting his staff during the difficult, colder months. We're running on a deficit right now, just even try to remain open and keep our employees on payroll. Congress's proposal would also make it easier for smaller loan borrowers to apply for forgiveness. So people like owns a jewelry store in Virginia, she says. It was a struggle to apply for her $14,000 pp. Alone. There were about 20 to 30 pieces of documentation I had to submit, and I'm still waiting to hear about whether I'm going to get forgiven or not. Lake says her jewelry sales have been slow this holiday season, which is usually one of our busiest times and next year. Her rent is going up, she says. If her p p p loan isn't forgiven, she probably won't apply for another one. Don't think I want to take on any more debt. You know, I already feel anxious with the debt that we have. Some Peopie recipients aren't sure they need this second go around. Jackie London is a public health consultant based in Colorado after the disastrous quarter to in the spring. I'm in a better position at the end of the year, and so I I'm not short. To be honest right now. I'm leaning towards no London says she like to think that by holding back business owners who need alone more than she does will have a better chance. I'm Justin. How for marketplace If they do decide to apply for new P P p loans, those air for smaller businesses or if they get other kinds of government help for bigger companies. We could be looking at workers who've been furloughed over the past nine months being brought back. But as marketplace's Eric embarrass reports, after all that time that some people have been on furlough, bringing him back might be harder than people think. When employers are ready to rehire. There are lots of options because right now there's just so you something if you go looking for where, says Lauren Rivera, professor at Northwestern University So Warren professor Peter Capelli says companies might wonder why shouldn't we use this opportunity to look around a little bit and see if there's somebody we would rather have, you know, it's been almost a year now without having him around legally, employers are free to court. Other candidates, says Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist for the vast majority of workers. There's no legal right. Of recall if the employer starts hiring again, the exception to that is for unionized workers with hiring rules in their contracts. But for a company bringing on new workers kind of expensive, where is rehiring a worker may mean re issuing equipment and restarting emails. That's still thousands of dollars cheaper than on boarding and training a new employee and you don't have to, for example, do reference checks. If you already know all about this worker because they were already your workers. But, says Erin Hatton, a sociology professor at the University of Buffalo, once furloughed employees or hired back, those workers may very well. Harper will well and And be less likely to commit to go over and beyond the way that may have before right now, says Hatton. Workers are in a pretty vulnerable position, and.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It hasn't happened. I have to say these numbers are really, really good at first Look town, there's a road resiliency there Right now We have an understanding that each house has its own character. The legacy of Morgan Stanley is Stephen Roach, literally modernizing mark modern market economics. Through the digital through the idea of actually publishing on retail sales. The moment it was done. It was a miracle 15 and 20 years ago carrying that legacy for it is China. He's Morgan Stanley, chief economist, Global Head of economics and, among other things, riding herd on a wonderful group of economists worldwide, including Ellen Zechner. Jane. Thank you so much for joining us this morning. You see retail sales with a nice Abdou are we misjudging queue for and kyu won worldwide where they could actually outperformed the caution. Um, that's what we have been actually highlighting. As you know, we've been making this call that we will see this reshape our company, and the data just continues to confirm that we are on that path, and there is no stalling, especially for us and China, which other two big parts of the world Their data continues to surprise on the upside, and we're expecting something similar on China where we get the GDP data on Monday. How much does the increase in virus cases challenge your assumption of a V shaped recovery? Look, I think I mentioned this on this. So before that what We have been highlighting the equation between dividers and the economy is changing. So as we keep seeing this new case is rising again. We have to temper down the expectation off its impact on the economy. We've been off the view that gross will barter it in the next three months, but it will still continue to make progress towards that reach recovery call that he had made. Which is that we will see the US economy will reach people read levels by second quarter ofthe 2021. Just look at today's retail sales data. If you kind of try and do some backward math on bed, predicted person consumption spending number Person consumption spending number could be as much as 98% off Corbett levels by end of September. And that just tell you that how much progress we have made so far, So the bishop recovery part looks very much secure. Well, Okay. But this is all predicated on this idea that the balance sheet of homes having bolstered by the stimulus that we'd already gotten from Washington D. C. If we don't get that re upped how many more months can consumers continue to sustain the recovery? That's a very good question. So what we have is highlighting is that the underlying strength off the consumer balance sheet as well as income standing has been quite good. So, for example, personal income as off August, and this is not for September, but as of August person in comfort household Is only about by a big coffee lovers by 2%. And the excess saving stock that the consumers have built in the last five months because of the stimulus and the fact they couldn't spend in the nation. Months is $1.1 trillion. The consumers have enough room to continue their spending into this winter months. Kevin, You've been very bold and quite bullish on the economy and you've been an out liar. A Morgan Stanley have let that cold over the last several months coming out of that huge contraction earlier this year. Every economic house, though, looks at their coal their base case and acknowledges a key vulnerability in their forecast. What is it for? You check him right now. Well, I think the key vulnerability is essentially the new cases. If they force aggressive, shut down, that will be the rest to our forecast. I think the stimulus is less authoress. Because of the math that I mentioned to you on the households friends, but it's really this rise in new cases. If they really force aggressive, shut down. That would be the near.
"chief economist" Discussed on Scientific Sense
"Welcome, to the site of accents podcast. Where we.
"chief economist" Discussed on WMAL 630AM
"Chief economist Danielle Hale told Yahoo finance the indications are that this will be a very good summer for the housing market I think we're gonna see some of the mind that would have happened in the spring shift into the summer I think it's also a little bit more of an open question so we could see the housing markets well if there is in fact the second winner actions especially if there need to be additional shut downs in the market and mortgage bankers association vice president Joel Kahn says that pent up buyer demand is what has been reversing a downward trend in mortgage applications from earlier this spring as the economy re opens are you ready to start going to open houses again a majority of people set up a new survey for the national association of realtors that yes they're ready and they are work with two leading public opinion firms including sports and leisure research group John last is president of our company the number of consumers are as concerned about the impacts of the shutdowns on the economy as they are about what's going on with the public health crisis and in light of this we've seen an increased percentage of people ready to go right now willing to resume their normal activities including touring homes and open standing open houses without any further assurances nearly two out of three people who said they had been to an open house in the last year say they are now ready to start going again well in light of recent events some prominent figures in real estate are taking affirmative steps to address racial inequalities in the industry national association of realtors president Vince Malta said in a statement quote as long time champions of fair housing equality and inclusion are among and I ours most cherished values the real deal reports that some industry executives say they will be proactive to achieve change from within and referring to recent events best Friedman the CEO of brown Harris Stevens told her agents quote as real estate professionals we serve our communities and it is incumbent upon us to stand with them we are all human first coming up in half an hour new insight into how you choose where you live Stephen back to you thanks bill we're beginning today show with a look at a big turnaround in one of America's largest city as you know Chicago and many other cities around the country suffered from riots and looting following the death of George Floyd properties throughout the city were severely damaged a devastating loss for Chicago but when real tore Whitney Hampton saw that she sprang into action to help Whitney is a broker with a progeny.
"chief economist" Discussed on KSFO-AM
"Chief economist Danielle Hale told Yahoo finance the indications are that this will be a very good summer for the housing market I think we're gonna see some of the buying that would have happened in the spring shift into the summer I think it's also a little bit more of an open question so we could see the housing market slow if there is in fact the second winner actions especially if there need to be additional shut downs in the market and mortgage bankers association vice president Joel Kahn says that pent up buyer demand is what has been reversing a downward trend in mortgage applications from earlier this spring as the economy re opens are you ready to start going to open houses again a majority of people set up a new survey for the national association of realtors that yes they're ready and they are work with two leading public opinion firms including sports and leisure research group John last is president about company and equal number of consumers are as concerned about the impacts of the shutdowns on the economy as they are about what's going on with the public health crisis and in light of this we've seen an increased percentage of people ready to go right now willing to resume their normal activities including touring homes and open extending open houses without any further assurances nearly two out of three people who said they had been to an open house in the last year say they are now ready to start going again well in light of recent events some prominent figures in real estate are taking affirmative steps to address racial inequalities in the industry national association of realtors president Vince Malta said in a statement quote as long time champions of fair housing equality and inclusion are among N. A. ours most cherished values the real deal reports that some industry executives say they will be proactive to achieve change from within and referring to recent events best Friedman the CEO of brown Harris Stevens told her agents quote as real estate professionals we serve our communities and it is incumbent upon us to stand with them we are all human first coming up in half an hour new insight into how you choose where you live Stephen back to you thanks bill we're beginning today show with a look at a big turnaround in one of America's largest city as you know Chicago and many other cities around the country suffered from riots and looting following the death of George Floyd properties throughout the city were severely damaged a devastating loss for Chicago but when real tore Whitney Hampton saw that she sprang into action to help Whitney is a broker with a progeny global LLC in Chicago and she started a campaign to rebuild the areas hit hardest she teamed up with other realtors and created the clean out in board up twenty twenty group dedicated to helping businesses survived the destruction and get up and running again once it was over and Whitney Hampton is with us now Whitney welcome to real estate today thank you so much for having me I'm excited to speak with you all today I must say we're the excited once because it's so great to talk to someone who is helping so much so let's talk about your group clean out in board up twenty twenty what was the moment you first decided you were gonna form that group and help the people of Chicago sold as many of us watched over the weekend and saw the looting and rioting that was taking place all over the country I felt so overwhelmed and then that Sunday I actually have to go out and sell properties sold the first building that we showed was actually about two blocks east of war active rioting and looting was taking place so after we saw that property we kind of made the decision that we would hold off for the rest of the day and then go ahead and go home so on my ride home I actually passed by and saw you know live why it eight and it just overwhelmed me with the motion until I got home I guess put both baseball polls police said if you are in these communities will be negatively impacted by the rioting and looting don't worry we will help you rebuild Zach is just wonderful and you teamed up with real Tor metallo McGee owner and managing broker of any real estate informed clean out in board up twenty twenty and yes so as soon as I put that whole stuff it started to be shared all over Facebook and was one of the first to call me and say listen I think this is an awesome initiative and I would like to help what do you need assistance with and someone he offered to be of assistance and then started the Facebook group so we said if you've been impacted by this negatively please just give me a call and that first night I was up until three o'clock in the morning receiving phone calls and text messages from business owners that were crying and distraught some of them could actually speed the looting happening on their cameras from whole that is amazing yeah they were overwhelmed but I said don't worry there's nothing to be upset about I understand but I assure you that we will be there and we will clean it out and it's not going to cost you a dime and that very first day on Monday morning operable Paulson said if you are willing to help please just meet me on eighty seven and the Dan Ryan at the home depot and we have over sixty five people show up that first day wow yeah you know that is so amazing because just imagine being a business owner and losing just about everything in the riots and looting and all of a sudden a person says Hey I am.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Harvard did not live with me you know I've been buying in which we see employment and growth and income per capita get back to our clean hold that level for a few years Reinhardt by the way yesterday was named chief economist at the World Bank easyjet will resume flights from twenty two European airports on June fifteenth it's based in the UK it becomes one of the first airlines in the region to begin building up services as the corona lockdown eases in terms of some of the U. S. carriers today they were higher on a down day for the rest of the market you A. L. up three point seven percent American Airlines group up point two percent delta one point nine percent Southwest Airlines up by one and a half percent first day out for select quote Inc shares rallied thirty five percent the Dow down one oh one no drop off point four percent S. and P. down point eight percent nasdaq down one percent the ten year yield point six seven percent and gold little changed up thirty cents eons now it's seventeen twenty seven I'm Charlie palette that is a Bloomberg business slash is indeed all right Charlie palate thank you so much well our next guest is a documentary filmmaker with a few currently in production she looks at everything from history to sports to individuals reaching out really to fulfill their dreams her name will sound familiar and from what I've read she doesn't mind being known as Stephen little sister delighted to have with us I will make an anti Spielberg director placement productions joining us on the phone in your I have to say I have a large family I love my siblings and I everything I read sounds like you guys do too and you support each other so we had to say that welcome welcome thank you thank you Carol you know what and we do love each other and we are supportive and I don't I like being called the bay because it means I'm always young I'm one of the younger ones out of seven and I'm okay being called the baby my goodness and Jason when you said you wanna hear about growing up in our family grow up with like a dirty word really almost like Peter Pan yeah my mom was a kid and so you know we all grew up with that sort of that instant way of looking and try and don't dress you know hopefully we necessarily don't act age appropriate that's that was our our model her mom and I love the fact it just to stick with the family for a second I mean playing up because all the way back to nineteen sixty two right your dad set it up yes yes and my dad who actually is a hundred and three and listening to us right now in Los Angeles my dad needed a vehicle for my brother's early thinking and he was making films with the Boy Scouts and making films with us in the backyard because there's nothing else to do and with this you know but he's in school so I play now is the it it it play is spielen German and mount is burned you know it is it's the translation of Spielberg so I took the name it was perfect do you like them to have such a supportive environment right for basically your creativity growing up well I think that you know part of it was the parent and my mom was really very much a free spirit my dad was a computer engineer and very technical so we had to start as we have that part he brain that never made us finish everything on our plate we can do what we wanted and my dad was just you know a more focused on doing the right things in education so those two things mix together was great because you know we got the artistic push and the technical push and which married well when it came to filmmaking cameras and special effects and all that and you really are parents let us strive however we felt in whatever direction we wanted to go and and that's like a huge challenge for parents it did not tell their children what to do so thank thankfully it worked out and also you know almost like today is what is everybody doing with their kids when there's very little to do there was nothing to do in Arizona in the summer time and that you know we don't have a swimming pool time for the summer camp yeah so we you know we fried eggs on the sidewalk and we used to make films wow and so how do you find yourself and we're gonna have a longer conversation only have about a minute and a half or so for this first initial question but thank how do you find yourself getting into documentaries specifically basically I don't really want to get into film but I always love to tell stories and it started it evolved in a way where I was really helping other people and that happened mostly to my philanthropy and then I discovered and we also discovered that there are incredible stories out there that aren't true stories of ordinary people doing extraordinary things and I just drew me in that direction and it's a very poor form you know it's not given authority by box office and that has not won the thing that drives documentary films so it felt right we're going to continue the conversation because we are we are getting a bit of a break and then we'll come back and continue because I am really curious about how you pick stories what is it that interests you because you really do have quite a range so we'll come back and continue that in just a moment we're talking with with an energy center I'm just I'm just saying like I'm interested also to to talk about sort of the state stated the movie business I mean I am an avid movie person as you know have that listed all these podcasts that's sort of how we come back in what the films are that might sort of kick that often you know documentaries were climbing on to them like the last dance it and others so I just wonder about the mix going forward okay well we can get into that you had this look like did my clock stop or something did I mess up that is my concern look okay just intense well it's a great way to continue this conversation if he still works is gonna come backed director Plano productions joining us on the phone in New York you are listening to Bloomberg business week I'm Carol Massar along with Jason Kelly and we do want to get a check on world and national news headlines a lot going on in the world for that let's turn things over to you Baxter in San Francisco Hey ed Hey Carol president Donald Trump created quite a stir today in a Ford motor plant in Michigan when he did part of his tour without a mask which was against company policy I was given I was given a choice that I had one on in an area with a preferred so I put it on and it was very nice very nice which I guess is most important earlier in the day for had said it would back off its rules so we didn't have to wear one but he says he did a doctor Anthony Fauci reiterated today that the country had better not move too fast or they'll be dire consequences he said call it nineteen will not be totally defeated until there's a vaccine for the entire globe if you don't control an outbreak in the developing world it's going to come right around and bites you the next season and I says all wall cannot be built to isolate from developing countries and he says all of social distancing has slowed spreads if you look at the data it is not the end of the spread yet indeed though New York governor Andrew Cuomo says that date is looking better and New Jersey governor Phil Murphy says absolutely the same thing each day brings with it sure signs that we're moving closer to being able to enter phase two of our economic restart but he says it has to be balanced United States Senate now has two bills aimed at China and human rights the first yesterday has the listing for Chinese companies involved in taking human rights and house speaker Nancy Pelosi on balance of power with David Westin says China has a dismal human rights record but we had to have a relationship with China and we checked every action as to what it means to us as well as what it means to them.
"chief economist" Discussed on #hottakeoftheday
"I don't do that very often but when I do gloomy I recognize that democracies sometimes or ten tend not to make felit difficult political choices until they forced to do so and so you would hope. There are adults in the room that can have an adult conversations. They how we gotta get out of this or we can continue to fight and then the next crisis made me when the rest of the world is is not GonNa buy it. When that happens that will be a mess in. Yes it will take you. We'll make the adjustment at that point. But it's going to be a mess end so. I do hope dupree that we do have adult conversation in the next few years but again when I recognized democracies tend not do that something I hadn't thought about until you just said it was the concept around one with higher unemployment rate in order for the US. I think even in two thousand sixteen trump ran on make America great again which was was in part bringing jobs back that we had previously off shored. And if you have higher unemployment you would bring some of these manufacturing and certainly essential pharmaceuticals which were short of a P P which were short. Some of these might come back to the US but the more we onshore jobs we've previously offshore creates less demand. Globally four are US dollar which does sort of exacerbate the whole were no longer the global currency. And we don't have lenders. Do you see that inter playing at all or are we still the big kid on the block? So you know countries will just adjust yes or no. So we you know so. I think we'll be the big kid on the block. So let me bring up another concept here. And that is the current account deficit right. The president makes a big deal about the current account deficit. You find that for for listeners. Essentially what it is. We import more than we export. Okay and the reason we do that is we here in this country. Lee tend to You know we could saw here right. Consumers consumer and businesses investment spending is Israeli Straw. Okay suspended because we spend more than we produce. We have to get some of that from abroad and We could correct overnight just by not trading with the rest of the world. Well if we did that there will be huge destruction if we just closed off our economy you said okay. We want to get rid of this current account deficit. And we're just going to close off our economy from the rest of the world entitled that's hugely disrupt too to the economy and so as long as this process occurs in a slow grab sorta process. That's fine you try to take do it all at one time. That's going to have major consequences for a definite. I do think that some of that. You will probably start to see you and we already were. Starting to see more. And more out of onshore occur. Many businesses had recognized even before this crowbars thing that their supply chain. We're getting a little bit to stretch a little bit too pompous. I'm not really corona virus. That can shut down a strike on the west of the West Coast can do you know. Airplanes not began will fly can do it. There's lots of different things naked. 'cause this and so businesses were starting to bring some of that stuff back on shore in this corona virus will probably sell. It feels like we're really walking a very very tight rope. And if we take all the correct actions and the correct steps then things can be good but there does seem like. There's there's a lot of ways that if we walk off the line there's a lot of substantially bad things that can happen. Is that important? The reason is going to go back to this word against a cliche. It's kind of UNPRECEDENT. They don't have a playbook for this right. We have not seen a global pandemic it almost one hundred years and so you know. How do you respond in a global? I Dunno making Knuckles Week along. And so that's so. Yeah it does leave your maybe your margin for error a little bit less than what it would be as you know. We haven't seen this in our in our lifetimes. So last question for you and again we talked about the bond market being bigger than the stock market but but macro there are choices to make. Which is you can be dogmatic and just let things fail and see what happens or you can be. I'M GONNA pragmatic which is to sort of help ease. The stock market continues to just fly. And we're back to twenty nine hundred in spite of whatever's going to happen in q two earnings and it seems to be projecting like a pretty solid return to the way things were. How do you see the stock market tying back to the realities of unemployment and small businesses and and the dichotomy? Maybe there that that small business owners are really potentially going to struggle but these large massive companies doing really really well and driving the stock market to new highs which seems to be positive or negative. Or what's what's your take on it. Well we're not. We're not back to in terms of the major indices. We're not back to you. Know quite where we were when this thing started the stock market as always forward. And so it's starting to price in some fairly optimistic sort of of us right now You know there's the optimism. That states are starting to reopen. There's an optimism that they're made either. Maybe vaccines that are available up. Sooner rather than later that we can potentially return Back to some sort of semblance of normalcy yes. The unemployment rate in the near term is going to go shooting up but the stock market is forward looking. It's looking beyond that. And so I think the biggest risk of the stock market right now is if you know if the virus doesn't go right in that you and I are having this conversation for your four months from now and we're still sitting at our homes because we're still at loft SORTA orders. There's a potential for us to come back to quickly We'll see how that goes then by guesses stock markets right will J. Very interesting conversation I think never before in the history of the world has economic spend such an interesting and relevant topic to ninety nine percent of the population and hopefully the listeners. Were able to hear some of the concepts that maybe they've been hearing in the news but they here in twenty seconds into have a deeper conversation into inflation in the Fed Reserve and bonds and pricing and and the way in economy works. I think is is really really helpful and I really appreciate you spending the time It must be funded to not have to wear a suit every day. My my my view of bankers everywhere you go. It's always suit and tie and so you've got to have like six weeks golf shirts. How is that fun or what I've got? I've been working in flannel shirts for the most essentially eight weeks now and I was saying this to my wife a night or two ago. It's GONNA be hard but I. I wonder if dress codes are really going to change. That'll be interesting. I think another thing. It'll be interesting we'll be do we. In fact actually start to go back to our offices again or I think. Many of us are who are who have luxury of being able to work. All many of us are finding g pretty productive at all and I do think that has some that does have implications for things like commercial real estate. You know and things of that nature. Do we need as many office towers five years from now as we do right now. That's an open question. I don't know but it'll be interesting to see how this changes behavior on a more permanent sorta basis will. If there's one thing we know humans and an economic capitalist systems adapt to stimulus and so whatever. The future holds We will we will be adapting very very quickly. So thank you again for joining us for everyone else. We appreciate you joining the heartache. Today podcast if you have comments or questions or topics for for suggestion. Please send me an email at DFW at the day dot com even catch up on all the old blogs and podcasts on our website at www dot heartache of the day dot com.
"chief economist" Discussed on #hottakeoftheday
"And I'll use Illinois's an example where I think they had come out and said that they they wanted a bail out and part of that bailout was a bail out of their their pension and the state pension was underfunded in Illinois is one of the states that people believe may go bankrupt sooner than later and then the governor New Jersey and the governor of New York Abo- said substantial billion multibillion dollar shortfalls in their in their state budget. This year because of the falling taxes. How how does this come to roost? Where Illinois spent a whole bunch has huge debt gets bailed out Montana. A North Dakota as as sort of a smaller state not as big. A deficit doesn't get bailed out to the same effect. What does that do for the state? Residents in federal tax payers in terms of the distribution of risk. In your view. Yeah so I mean I guess what you know what would would say To all of that would be you know so have is the one thing that you could potentially do. Fear is again a split decision. One thing he potentially could do is to give the state of Illinois will use them as an example give the state of Illinois. A you know to give them money at the federal government is the federal government can run deficits for Illinois to get through the next year or two one. One thing that you could potentially do there is have strings attached to okay. We're GONNA in order for us to give you X. billions of dollars for you not have to cut your payroll and things like that. We do expect to see these sorts of programs put place to push down the rate of spending or or whatever it is in the IMF. Does that all the time with with countries that get into problems right the IMF will come to a country Uganda for example. And they'll give you Gonda twenty billion dollars so it can. It can pay its obligations but they also say okay in order get twenty billion dollars and they do it in tranches. It's not all just one twenty billion. Maybe it's five and then another three or whatever they have to they have to make certain checks along the way to get the next sort of trucks and so what the tensely. The federal government could do is design hate. Imf SORTA program for the State of Illinois a okay. You Need X. billion dollars over the next three years. We're going to give you these trenches but you've got to be doing this along the way for us to continue to give you the money so then the big elephants in the room is is the feds because it all comes back to whether you're a company and the federal government effectively mandated a shutdown businesses so small businesses and large businesses alike are sort of down. There's the nuance of guys like Amazon. Costco target are winning winning. All the business. And therefore probably don't even WanNa see the shutdown end because you know from a purely competitive standpoint. They are the winners the definitive winners which seems to be one of the reasons the SNP which is so heavily weighted to these big Amazon. Google Apple Target Costco etc is going up but then at the same time all these small businesses that pay and all these governments that pay can't pay so for the federal government level with the national debt the deficit that the incurred costs on the balance sheet for this. How do we undo this or have any semblance of getting back to the way life was in any period of time? And and what do you and I guess speaking for Wells Fargo think about GDP contraction unemployment. Systemic where what does the government do to undo the damage that we've done in the last six weeks well in some sense the government doesn't have or when I say the Gun Lee. The people who is we don't have we don't have much of a choice In this all right so you could take a real hard line approach here and say okay. We're going to. We're not going to anybody out. We're not going to Give people unemployment. Because we're afraid what's going to happen to the deficit. I'm in that kind of all right. So people who lose their jobs ear or not Aren't GONNA be paying income taxes. The deficit is going to go one way or the other and you know if you take a real hard line approach that we said No. We're not going to bail anybody out there. You're looking at the economy collapsing At that point and that has so many social and political implications involved breaks. Things are bad now. The unemployment rate in this country goes the forty or fifty percents change. Katie bar the door right way you think. What do you think unemployment not not only just will what will it hit but where do you how do you see unemployment trending in the next few years because clearly? That's a big driver for economic predictions would make for the US right right so next Friday. They're gonNA print the unemployment the labor force Labor report for the month of April That will the unemployment rate will probably be at least fifteen percent if maybe on its way to twenty percents okay but unlike other recessions whereas go up that high it would take a while for it to come back now. We're not really expecting that because I mean what's you know we're looking for. We're not looking forward to go back to three point five percents anytime soon. But we don't think it goes up to fifteen twenty percent and then it stays up there because you know the economy is GonNa start to slowly reopen and many businesses. That are shot right now. They are getting loans from the federal government and a lot of these loans will be forgiven as long as they continue to keep people on payrolls things of that nature. Essentially it's grants and so as the economy starts to slowly open back up. You'RE GONNA START YOU'RE GONNA see. Employment comes springing back pretty quickly Young people haven't been to their doctor or dentist for non essential treatments for the last month or two. I haven't been to the barber in two months. I can't wait to me. I am starting to look like that. Guy From game of thrones their red beard like I feel like I should be going behind the wall. So so there's there's GONNA be pent up demand for a lot of that services and these businesses that are shuddered right now or Many of them are not closed for good and so once the once. The economy starts to reopen again. A lot those folks are gonna come are going to be called back to their jobs. And so you're going to see the unemployment rates spike up but then it's GonNa come back down pretty quickly now. It's not GONNA go back down to three points because some businesses that they're they're they're gone already right and so at the end of next year we still think your rate is north of six percents so by the end. Twenty Twenty One. Twenty twenty one. The bad news is not back down to three point. Five percent but the good news is not fifteen percent either so you know talking about the unprecedented nature of this this this will be an unprecedented sort of economic recovery. I'm not going to say a complete fee that we go right back to where we were in February. That's probably not but I think it's the third quarter and fourth quarter. Gdp numbers knowing what I know right now. I think we'll be pretty strong as more and more start to reopen and people come back for now. What do you think about you know if you if you go out five years and you know I think the number of seen is the feds have sort of added six and a half trillion dollars of liquidity? Some of that is forgivable loans. Some of that is purchasing bonds. Which presumably they would sell back to the market at some point. If if things loosened up a bit is that is that a fair characterization like that they could unwind some of the the balance sheet increase and that there would be a demand for that we'll banks like yourself and the other one's pay what they sold it for a frank so frankly. I don't think the Federal Reserve will start to unwind its balance sheet. I think the bonds that they have wall probably stay on the Federal Reserve's balance and so they'll get the money back win. Those bonds come due and pay. That's so so what happens is the federal. The Federal Reserve buys a Bon from the mark. Right and so now. The Fed has this as a ten year bond sitting on its balance sheet of a coupon it was called one and a half okay so every six months with the Treasury Department. As that coupon it'll pay it to the Federal Reserve the Federal Reserve then turned right around and gives it right back to the treasury and so again I don't expect the Fed's going to unwind its balance because if it if it did which you could potentially see is long term if the Fed started to sell trillions of dollars of government bonds into the marketplace. That could cause BECCA. 'cause interest rates is to move up pretty significantly and that's got last thing that the federal government wants at this point and their deficit problems are big enough. Last thing they need to be doing is spending even more in terms of injuries. Yeah on the federal. That's going to be sitting on the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet for the foreseeable future. Nj One. I wanted you to explain again just for the for the listeners. Who might not be as familiar with how that would work in? Terms of supply demand if the government were to sell a whole bunch of bonds into the market that would presumably depressed the prices. But that's the price that those bonds pay every month or every year is the same therefore the yield goes up which which has the net effect of raising interest rates and making debt more expensive for new issuers that. Yes Oh right. So what happens is if there's a big supply that comes into the marketplace everything else equal that causes prices of bonds to go down which means they're yields go and then for the Treasury Secretary to be issuing new bonds going forward he or she has to have a higher interest payments on the to make them comparable to the existing stock of debt. Out there and so rather than issuing a ten year note ads call up one and a half with one and a half percent now in order to make that more attractive if gotta be issuing that at a two percent were a two and a half percent and so the interest expenses of the government then are going up so when you think about long term. I mean the. Us dollar has sort of been the world's currency. I would. I would describe it as I guess. Informal but a lot of current oil straighted in. Us dollars a lot of debt is denominated in US dollars so there's a huge global demand for US dollars with the response to this. I mean do you have any comments on the euro the US dollar and broadly global capitalism as we move forward what what happens to the way we loan inter money between governments and currencies like the euro any comments on that so the US is the world's preeminent reserve currency today? I'm GONNA say the. Us dollar is going to be the world's preeminent reserve currency twenty years. There's no alternative to that. Okay now you talk about you know a big government debt here in the United States. Put THIS IN IN IN. Country Music Charts. Okay John. Johnny Cash Sang a song. Sixty seven year Fifty six years ago Sunday morning coming down there. That's on a woke up Sunday morning and I fumbled through my closet. Fine Mike cleanest dirty shirt. That's what Treasury securities. Are there the clean dirty shirt? There's no alternative to are you going to. Are you going to as an investor invest in euros right? Well we think about. There's not one European. There's one thousand nine hundred individual and what we learned during the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Ten years ago is that a Portuguese sovereign bond is not the same thing as a German Japanese yet. China Get Invest. They're needed if you could. I don't think I would touch Chinese. So the reason why the US dollar is the world's preeminent reserve currency is not only because the US has the biggest military might around but also because we have the deepest most liquid most transparent capital markets in the world Europe doesn't can't compete with us when it comes to that sort of stuff. Japan has a deep bond market government market. But that's about it. China a transparent. Ask Ask anyone abode the numbers coming out of the out of the Wu flu and see how that works. Yeah so because of the deep liquid nature of transparent nature of our capital markets investors from all over the World WanNa buy equities. They WANNA buy corporate bonds. I WANNA buy sovereign bonds etc etc in. Need dollars to be able to do so so long. So long term..
"chief economist" Discussed on #hottakeoftheday
"Is going on vacation? It is dear w here for another episode of the heartache of the day podcast today. I'm very fortunate to be joined by Jay. Bryson who is the acting chief economist for Wells Fargo Bank and his base in North Carolina? J. Welcome to the show. How are you today great? Thanks for thanks for having meter so so North Carolina big basketball town. How are you feeling about the fact that there may not be there is no final four? Obviously no no march madness what. What was the vibe of of the state so so I'm a North Carolina Tar heel. I WENT TO UNC. Many my children and also did as well and actually it was kind of good news because we were going to make it to the big dance this year. So our streak up to like fifteen sixteen. A big dances remains intact but Yeah but but now it's obviously you know not having the NC Double A. Tournament. Iryna basketball crazy sort of places you know. It was tough but Just all sorts of sports. You know it's Things got shut down now. But that's all open and and hopefully things will start to get back to the good and and so we were chatting just before we went on air here about Where North Carolina is in terms of the stay at home order and South Carolina's obviously opened up with Tennessee. Atlanta Georgia has opened up as well. Where where's where's North Carolina in that spectrum of opening backup right so the governor Re a few weeks ago extended stay at home orders until may eighth And that's the latest so whereas South Carolina you know is starting to gradually reopen some of those other states. You mentioned we're not dairy that said It does seem like cases here as many other states are they're still going up at a decreasing rate. The curb is flattening here and we'll sleet and we'll see what happens going forward so one thing I did read today is that there's a Nascar race here in Charlotte Over Memorial Day Coca Cola. Six hundred they always APP and in the paper today. The governor said a assumes that that race will go forward doubts. Whether or not there's actually fans in the stands. I probably not GONNA be in front of nobody five. They may in fact the letter. That's I mean that's great and and I'd read earlier that the first professional sport that was at least coming back after cancelling was the PGA tour right and and It it certainly seems like people are are getting ready to get back to life. It'll be interesting so so talk to me a little bit about your background. And what it takes to become chief economist. And I think I think from context a lot of energy professionals who listen to this show are thinking about a career change after the crazy crazy. Double Black Swan and chief economist. Right so So I've been doing this for a number of years. Now I have a background did so. I have a economics in earlier by career I taught at university is a University of Alabama moved to Zuhdi Federal Reserve in Washington. Dc spent a number of years there and then about twenty years ago ourselves. I came to at the time. The bank was first union which became more covert. Now Wells. Fargo in you know I've been here for about twenty years now and So started out as our global economists of watching what's happening in the rest of the World Dawson there's a lot going on obviously here in the United States and I had to keep a track and then as chief economist retired about two years ago so I moved into that role. So so how over your twenty years. So I'm just thinking going back. It was about two thousand so so you would have been in a similar role kind of around the tech bubble burst and the Y2K. The most similar pandemic was that all the computers. Were GonNA end January. I was going to happen in Y. Two K. was GONNA melt down the world than it was sort of a non event but it coincided with the tech bubble. You know sort of took a long time to recover their the great recession in two thousand eight two thousand nine and then now this how does this compare to those events both similarities and differences? So this is a cliche now to use this word by us it anyway and this is unprecedented. We have never seen an economy. Just completely stop an altogether young tech bubble when you go back and you look at it. That turned out to be very mild. Recession was depression for the tech industry but for the overall economy wasn't much of her session at off of thought that the global financial crisis was once a generation. Not Lifetime sort of thing. This is completely different. This is where every part of the economy just shuts down and even as bad as October. Two thousand. Eight was Dench adapt so. That's the biggest difference This time around. I think some similarities. Are you know if you think back to two thousand eight you had? The government got very active decorated. Tom Ridge it for Federal Reserve Rolling out all sorts of programs and twelve years. Later we're kind of doing the same SORTA policy response. And so you know I think the good news of this world a lesson of the Great Depression you know the Great Depression. There was a recession. That was starting in the summer of nineteen twenty nine that turned into the Great Depression because of utter failure of policy. I'm Federal Reserve. Did Not do its job. As the lender of last resort fiscal policy in this country didn't really turn stimulant of until nineteen thirty three nineteen thirty four not the depths of great so we we've learned that lesson that when the economy in the private sector Covet grinds to a halt the other public sector has a role to prevent something even worse from happening. It is from from a context standpoint. Nineteen you know. We do have these major events in history and I think of one thousand nine hundred eighty nine nineteen eighty seven two thousand eight and two thousand twenty as sort of the big ones. I don't I don't know that I've missed any for walk with my wife. 'cause that's what you now. Do you go for a walk with family members during the day and we were looking at from nineteen thousand nine hundred. Nineteen thirty two. The Dow fell from about three sixty. Two thirty is at the bottom which cheer point on Fiscal Stimulus. So maybe talk high level Before we dive into the details about some of the functions of the of the Fed how you think about their use of the balance sheet and you know tarp as I recall which felt like a huge number at the time was like eight hundred billion if I remember correctly and we've already in terms of liquidity and fed action have already taken multitudes more and and as a buyer of last resort of municipal bonds and high yield bonds and treasuries and multiple levels of stimulus. What is the role of the Fed in the economy? And how does the economy? Broadly work for those. Who aren't as familiar with it before we dive into the specifics of what comes next. So the Fed is the lender of last resort with. Nobody is there to to lend. That's where that's what the Federal Reserve is is charged with doing. And so what they're doing now is is so he may remember the quantitative easing programs her after their young well what has been known up to this point as the great recession where they're buying government bonds mortgage back securities. They started doing that. But they're also as you got as you mentioned are also starting to buy corporal corporate bonds so high yield bonds in terms of exchange traded funds and municipal securities as well. And so what they're doing is a lot of these markets in recent weeks or back in back in late March Really started to grind to a halt. And if there's no trading in these markets witty and justice system just starts to completely dry out we are a capital markets based economy a lot of lending occurs through the capital markets through the corporate bond markets. So at the Fed is doing is by purchasing. Those things are starting to re liquify those markets and we've seen Issuance in the investment grade market. Just explode recently. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Fed if some of these bonds at their buying holding on the balance if they if they go bad you have the false then the Fed is looking at credit losses. And maybe sooner or later Congress would have to step in and make the quote solid. The Fed became technically insolvent because his losses. So they're really treading in some some really use. This word again unprecedented. And they're all. Potentially there could be some political blowback from all of this if some of these things that they're doing right now we're starting to go badly so so I wanna I wanNA take it a little bit in pieces and I'm Gonna I'M GONNA set of context and then I just want to get your feedback. So as said March I remember it was about March. Twenty third like the the market ceased to act and think for a lot of people who are just their day to day. They don't really pay attention to their stock portfolio. They don't really understand that. The bond market is much much much larger than the equity market. And how everything works. But I was looking at the city of Detroit and in about two thousand thirteen. The city of Detroit declared bankruptcy meaning of course that they didn't have enough funds to to pay their debt back so they they restructured their debt. And at the time the municipal bond holders got seventy four cents on the dollar and so if we think about the municipal bond market now which is where all the city's fund all of the infrastructure projects. How worried are you about a drop in income tax in a drop in property tax in cities all across America that they don't have ability to print money that they have these bonds and projects and government workers and state workers who are now starting to hear beget laid off? How does a city recover two three years? What does this look like from the municipality perspective so I am a marginally worried about that I mean if you look at the spending at the state and local governments together aggregate that accounts for close to ten percents of GDP and unlike the federal government which can run these guys generally cannot write their constitutionally barred from their own constitutions from being on to do that so when tax revenue start to dry up as they are right now what they have to do they have to cut spending in the last thing you WanNa do when GDP is contracting significantly like it is right now is to have to cut spending and so this is? This is another political flight that occurring in Washington do make the the next package fiscal stimulus package up to this point focused on consumers and on businesses. Do we do this as well at the state and local people in Washington who sites? We need to do that. There's other people there who are saying no. We shouldn't be bailing those guys out. They need to cut spending Yada Yada Yada. That's that's a political argument right but you know if you look back at the at the recovery from the last recession. One of the things that cut that held that recovery back was that you have all these big cutbacks at the state over. So it'll be it'll be interesting with the politics out all plays out of Washington. So is there. Is there a potential come because again I I like how you keep sort of touching on? There is a political element that that overlays the the economics and so depending on your slant whether you're republican sort of small government small spend small tax or Democrat big government big. Spend big tax that. You're you're cutting down these lines but do you have a fundamental economic question around. Should the Fed be buying municipal bonds? So that if they go bankrupt it's basically the Fed gets hurt not the rest of capital which is an interesting economic argument. Now if we go one level up to the states and you alluded to this. And I'll use Illinois's an example where I think they had come out and said that they they wanted a bail out and part of that bailout was a bail out of their their pension and the state.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The chief economist at Amherst pure point securities about what to expect from chairman past comments tomorrow from Jackson Hole Wyoming plus we'll speak to our good friend Barry results Bloomberg opinion columnist on his hash tag trump recession piece as well as the new concept being floated over last several days about stakeholder capitalism we'll see what that's all about the first as good as the prisoner Bloomberg news for a Bloomberg business flashed up Hey Paul ours some down today in the market about the path of the fed the end of the rate cuts that the market had been discounted today we heard from a Kansas city fed bank president Esther George saying the American economy doesn't need lower interest rate it's curious to because the Kansas city fed bank reported its factory Gage now contracting by the most since twenty sixteen now another fed official Philadelphia fed bank president Patrick Parker was telling CNBC he is on hold right now when it comes to the idea of cutting interest rates further now tomorrow venture Jay Powell will be speaking at the Kansas city fed bank has symposium in Jackson Hole that's the speech that the market really is waiting for terms of the equity market right now the Dow was weaker by tenth of one percent S. and P. five hundred down about three tenths of one percent the nasdaq composite meantime weaker by about seven tenths of one percent terms of eco data the numbers on weekly jobless claims much stronger than forecast we're now at a four week low but the manufacturing PMI here in the states a reading of forty nine nine for the month of August that echoed some of the weakness of we had coming out of Germany the manufacturing PMI their weaker for a seventh straight month contraction below fifty although on the positive side for Germany services about four cast ten year treasury right now with the yield of one point five nine percent you're caught up on markets let's get back to Lisa and Paul this is Bloomberg markets with Lisa from it's in polls we radio to Margie Powell will we're hoping at least will be some sort of definitive freed on whether or not the federal reserve will cut rates as much as investors are hoping most likely he will.
"chief economist" Discussed on AP News
"More the chief economist for the national association of realtors warrant June says US home sales increased two and a half percent last month first year over year gain in seventeen months UN says lower mortgage rates lord many would be buyers into the market but he's not expecting rates to drop much further given that the market has already priced stand for further rate cuts we need to be at the low point in terms of mortgage rates Yun says the median sales price jump four point three percent from a year ago mainly due to a lack of housing inventory my cap in Washington the space craft that India launched last month is now orbiting the moon it's on its way to the lunar South Pole the study water deposits it'll be circling the moon in a tighter orbit until reaching sixty two miles above the moon's surface then the lander will separate from the orbiter and use rocket fuel to break and then land on a relatively flat surface between two craters in the south polar region on September seventh it's an area where no moon landings ever been attempted before a row overall study moon craters thought to contain a hundred million tons of water scientists believe water and mineral deposits could make the moon a good pit stop for further space travel NASA's Artemis missional use the data to send astronauts to the moon by twenty twenty four preparing the way for human missions to Mars fans of Netflix's stranger things have been traveling to Georgia to see were scenes of the eighties sci fi series were filmed people have been visiting the state since the series premiered in twenty sixteen including downtown Jackson which became the downtown of fictional Hawkins Indiana for the show which broke Netflix records with its third season they've gone to filming locations such as the Piggly wiggly grocery store formally known as Bradley's big by which is sold more Aigle waffles than ever in recent years thanks to the show people also take pictures of Gwinnett place mall in Duluth Georgia which is called star court mall in the show in downtown Jackson lose lose coffee cafe offers a stranger drinks menu drinks include the sheriff hopper which is the hazel nut and vanilla coffee drink a cashier at the cafes as we've seen a lot of tourists come in since they opened in twenty seventeen end of scene sales rights I'm Jackie Quinn president trump appears to be backing away from last week's call for stronger.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Mickey Levy chief economist at Bernburg capital markets with a focus on the Asia Pacific region, which seems to be the focus of markets over the last several months. It seems Mickey good to talk with you this morning. We are as many market. Participants are trying to figure out what comes next in the US China trade dispute. Where do you see this going? Critical point is the whole issue has gone way beyond and focuses on intellectual property and related issues in that regard. I do expect this current impasse to be broken with some kind of agreement on some of some of trade and tariff related issues. I think. The debate and and scuffle on intellectual property is going to continue to keep in mind is. Some of these, like, borrowing actual pretty and requiring foreign companies. To turn over their actual property. You know, Detroit dentures this is this is part of this is a critical factor. That is it is lifted China from being a poor country into into an economic superpower, America's not willing to give it up right away. So we look for some breakthrough not on everything and likely to continue teacher. All right. So how do you read the bond markets? Read on what's been happening in terms of the heightened rhetoric we've seen on both sides. Well, I think that I think the lower farm yields are reflecting a confluence of factors including economic slump. And this is related to real problems and challenges in Europe. China's not just negotiations with the US, but also China's growth is slowing. Then you have also industrial slump in the United States with a moderate inventory overhanging to be unwound. We can't we can't lose sight of the Federal Reserve and other central banks are folding massive amounts of sovereign bonds and keeping interest rates really low inflation. Confluence of events are. Toward lower on yoga being. By the concern that, that things might unravel in the economy. So we've seen this before we had an industrial in two thousand fifteen sixteen late two thousand fifteen look like the wheels were coming off the China and much lower than they are now. Were down one point six to one point seven range, and then and then another episode was late. Two thousand eighteen were yields fell very sharply before. I don't think the US is going to fall into recession once again industrial but not a recession and just like the other episodes of the markets will way out of us. And, yes, I do some you know, agreement to agree between the US and China will will break the current impasse, if not Saul all the all of the critical issues, they face only about a minute left. You mentioned that inventory overhang that hung a lot in the read of first quarter GDP. We got the first time around. We got the first revision coming out later this morning expecting any major changes to that. We three very well could see another slightly downward revision but I think the critical point about the inventory. Overhang is appro- visit. Because because this is slumped in, in product demand. And she won and what is suggesting in to to the Renou, and maybe three. Final sales by the okay yield cheating people that will cut production. Try to. And a little a week, JD PM will maybe perpetuate market concerns about about weaker economic growth. Mickey Levy chief economist berenberg capital markets. Nice to talk with you this morning. And again, the revised first quarter GDP comes out at eight thirty A M, Wall Street time is five twenty four on Wall Street right now straight ahead on Bloomberg daybreak. We're going to hear from Morgan Stanley CEO, James Gorman about the risks to the financial markets. Plus, all the latest news in business economics and finance development futures pointing to a higher open for equities on Wall Street s and p.
"chief economist" Discussed on KCRW
"Your long everybody, we begin on this Tuesday with a restatement of our every now and then observation that this is a global economy, and we are kind of stuck with it. Come. What may and when what is coming is generally good rising growth in economic optimism. Good fine. When what's coming is less growth in some small degree of economic pessimism. Well, you got to play the Andrew del right? And the global economic hand we are being dealt today comes to us from the International Monetary Fund. IMF get it which is out with its latest forecast on the global economy growth. Yes. But less of it the IMF third forecast of slower growth in six months. He took over not is the chief economist for the doctor welcome to the program. Thank you, you called the global economy this morning and some of your commentary. You said we're at a delicate moment how come why said global growth is projected to slow down to three point three percent in twenty nineteen and we expected coveting twenty twenty and you know, that covers precarious so that's the sense in which this is delicate moment because if any of the downside that we worry about materialize. Now, the recovery that we're expecting a may not come about. Okay. Why are you expecting covering if it's if it's precarious seems like a gutsy call them make well, we certainly seen as a substantial amount of policy combination around the world. I mean, all of the major central banks have shifted to a more accommodative stands we've seen China. Putin a fair amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. We certainly seeing some improvement in trade tensions between the US and China at least compared to twenty eighteen so all of those factors, you know, would help a growth going forward, and we expect. See some recovery's and stressed economies that Tina Turkey. So that's where I focused is coming from show. We've got low rates the accommodative policy that you mentioned, but we do still have the specter of a no deal, Brexit or whatever's going to happen over there. We have ongoing U S China trade talks, which again who knows what's gonna happen over there. Get me, then to your to your downside risk that you mentioned. I mean, I'm unavo- main downside risk remains an escalating intrigue tensions, you know. Maybe with other countries in other sectors like autos, a we would like to see a resolution of Brexit with an agreement. That's not a audio Brexit. I mean, these would be some of the important policy missteps to be avoided. Let me get a little more specific. Are you talking American trade policy movement here we are talking about? Yes of eating the US China trade tensions weaken growth weakened investments. Reduced business confidence. So the question is what happens going forward from the US side from any retaliation. Which is why we you know, we say that this is a delicate moment and is important for policy makers to avoid missteps, let me just ask since you mentioned central banks and listeners will hear elsewhere in the program about about the impedance of central banks. And since you led with it in your answer. How critical are central banks and the proper functioning of to the to the future health of global economy. I mean, central Bank policies vase is taken recently the independence of the central Bank are all hugely important for the health of the global economy. They played an important role in reducing downside risks that were showing up towards the end of twenty eighteen and so it is important that they remain independence remain data driven and the the policies are well communicated. So you've been on the job since the first of January, how're you liking it so far it's been it's been a lot of fun. Great. Doc to choose the new ish chief economist at the International Monetary Fund out with your global forecast this morning, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Thank you so much. She mentioned a no deal Brexit, by the way, without getting into the current state of play over in the UK because frankly, one loses track US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this today in congressional testimony, quote, I think at this point secretary said we need to be prepared for a hard Brexit as a very realistic outcome, and of quote, hard Brexit, of course, is a no deal Brexit again. Who knows what the what over there on Wall Street today? Honestly kinda man nobody was really wild about that IMF forecast. We'll have the details when we do the numbers..
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Daryl Fairweather is chief economist at red fin. Even though there were more homes for sale in two thousand eighteen than there were in two thousand seventeen fewer of those homes or affordable my making the median income in America. Which means that a typical American is going to have a harder time finding a home within their budget and becoming a homeowner. And that's a scenario that's playing out in markets like the bay area, San Diego, Seattle, Los Angeles, another major metros, but you might have better luck in some inland markets. If you happen to live in Minneapolis. You're going to have a lot of options Saint Louis and Pittsburgh also have plenty of affordable options and will the sheriff affordable homes fell in all forty nine metros Redfin. Looked at for last year. The number of affordable homes for sale increased in Nashville, Jacksonville, Florida, and Hartford Connecticut, and that is your Bloomberg real estate report underneath. Greedy. Please just a really really good guy. The term good egg isn't enough to describe him. He's also certified organic and free range. Rich puts the cap back on everything the toothpaste, the olive oil the shampoo everything. He lets his ten year old nephew beat him at virtual tennis. Even though he can straight up slay his ten year old nephew in virtual tennis. When the toilet paper is running low rich replaces the roll on the actual holder. Not just on the back of the toilet reaches texting and driving rich. No, what are you doing rich? I was.
"chief economist" Discussed on KSFO-AM
"This. I have to take that you have to take the survey surveys done, okay, service valley, police caller from Idaho. Maryland wrote a railroad avenue reported a smoldering fire in the creek who now whenever we see smoldering fires near creeks in the bay area. It always comes back to a homeless camp. Does you're right. And what did they find in grass valley a homeless camp? Oh. That's the one it's the one. That's there. Let me see we have caller from the one hundred block of set way reported two men and a physical fight. Opposed to a verbal fight physical fight fisticuffs. Or as opposed to way, metaphysical fight. You know, I'm not. Yeah. Watch. But I think really hard. They're hurts you with my thoughts. I'm gonna get you Brian. This is a metaphysical fight. We have a man tried to get. Okay. This was a man trying to get into a vehicle. Left on foot. He cannot be located feet were really fast. Caller for the three hundred block of north church street reported cars coming and going with loud music in the early morning hours. Well, this call came in at one A M. I'm guessing it was a party must have been seven forty on Kosovo. Steve more our chief economist and just a second plus katie's traffic. Stay tuned. Left an ad from dad. All right..