4 Episode results for "Zulu Alpa"

Episode 47: Pegasus, Eclipse Awards, Derby Preps

Racing Rundown: A Horse Racing Podcast

50:09 min | 1 year ago

Episode 47: Pegasus, Eclipse Awards, Derby Preps

"All right here. We GO BACK ONCE. Again on racing rundown. Unfortunately we didn't have an absolute last week. I wanted to try to get the amount of time left that we had on the server to maximize that so unfortunately we didn't get a show last week so we're GonNa do everything this we talk about. The eclipse awards fallout from that. As well as the Pegasus World Cup. And then the first real meaningful weekend of Kentucky Derby preparations while some other graded stakes for older horses on the dirt and on turf so we got a lot to get to a pegasus. Obviously those a couple of races from the Pegasus undercard as well. Uh specifically the inside information but I want to get to I the Pegasus. Excuse me not the Pegasus. The eclipse awards and team bricks and mortar. Just just proved how since ational the campaign that was doing something that had only been done once prior by John. Henry's camp of sweeping owner Breeder Trainer Jockey and horse of the year. All five of those categories going to the bricks and mortar camp. And it's just a testament to how perfect of a season that was for. Everyone John John Roberts mortar the only to to do that American. Farrell had come the closest to doing that last time. And then you had cigar. Who MISSED OUT ON CHAMPION BREEDER? That was the the thing that he didn't get. And you know it. It was an interesting point that j made about eclipse award voting. And saying that you know it's an award that champion Breeder specifically but you can owner into this while it's an award that people don't necessarily do their best research on I will say I initially picked Godolphin and Gary Barber and did not go with the person. Mortar camp initially. I wasn't really going to be upset if they won that. But with looking at that in hindsight post mortem from the show on that there was really no other way that you could have gone with that. And it's just a test Mathu bricks and mortar and the year that he had an also Another thing to add to that is he was a unanimous winner of champion Male Turf Horse. That was the one question mark about that award and I asked Jay about that. Specifically that it is not worth forgetting that he was a unanimous male turf award winner and there were several other words that people said should have been unanimous. But that was the one that if there was not unanimous than there would have been I would have had a serious problem with that for me was the breeder in terms of bricks and mortar sweeping the The awards I was not convinced that George strawbridge deserved it but After the fact I kind of realized down his resume. He probably was most deserving in Richardson. Mortar I mean. I don't think I need to say much. About how amazing you was this year I was surprised at how big the margins were in terms of the voting in terms of dot. Bricks horse but The the person the individual awards that were given out the owner wants surprised me the most I did not think that clarifies which in his partner we're going to get her carmen. Excuse me and his partner. We're going to get it but Definitely bricks and mortar. I think kind of push them through to that award and I think we're all very deserving and I'm very happy to see them sweep it and it's very impressive considering there's been only one other horse in the history of the eclipse awards to take home all the major awards him and his connection so very impressive from bricks and mortar. Just a little sad. You don't get to see more of that is another thing. That's worth mentioning. But you know Eric mentioned that the the Horse of the year. Excuse me I actually was not expecting it to be very close the indication that I was getting now I didn't get information on actual numbers but the indication. I was getting from the people that I know. Who were voters was that the margin was going to be bricks and mortar and it was not going to be close i. It was still larger than I think anyone expected because I thought some of the other horses would pick up more votes. I thought some of the one vote get one and to vote getters. Like Vino Roseau. In midnight blue would take a little bit more but that was kind of the theme with the entire eclipse awards. The fact that with the exception of older male horse which will get to in a minute most of the with the exception of older male horse and apprentice jockey. Excuse me none of the eclipse awards. Were very close at all. And that was the one thing that was very surprising. One that really struck was only sister Charlie and got stormy and from what everyone was about. That was going to be a very close nod between bolt got stormy and Ernie and got stormy. Didn't end up getting second place. Sister Charlie Some of the voters valued the entire year campaign that she did have but that was the most interesting of the of the awards on that. Thursday was the fact that there was not a lot of close votes at all horse of the year. Obviously we already talked about that. Two year old male. That was a two year old male two year old female the three year old awards as well as male and female sprinter. Now the one question mark that I had that really was one of the things that I thought was not right with. The eclipse awards was the fact that off. Five people voted for maximum security over Mottola for champion sprinter. Which is just ridiculous. I mean you get that. With the eclipse g get out of nowhere random votes and a unfortunately those votes went to him at one horse that I thought did an extreme disservice to was imperial hint. Who beat Matola in track record time and you know as I've said several as both of us have several several times on the show if she didn't turn around and do what he did in the Amsterdam the very next day that would have been the performance of the Saratoga summer. Meet that we would have been talking about and you you know. It just is very surprising to me that imperial Hinton get a single vote now. If the the rationale was that you're going to pick the best maturity wins it unanimously. That I'm not gonNA fault someone for voting for the best horse but the fact that it goes to goes to horse that ran one race sprint distance and was known for his did his distance running is that was. The one voted the eclipse awards. That was ridiculous but aside from that it was a very that there were snobs. It only eclipse awards. I know a lot of people. Were upset Davina Rosa. Got It over Matali but that was kind of a go either way with me and side from that. There was not much controversy at all. Totally agree with you on. I mean don't know awards really got out me as a really upset me the The beano routes one was confusing. Because I did not think I'm a big fan on twitter. You know long ago when he was doing I predicted he'd be this big horse and he turned out to be one so I was really happy when you were but at the same time confused because I thought that Mottola that award locked up so. I'm just going to forget that that would happen. You know to pretend that. I'm not in being a roses. Can't because honestly Matola a great horse he he deserves. I think he deserved that award. So that was kind of confusing to me. The one that really just boggles me. The most was the gods stormy anyone. I expected you need to Win Julie. Because Breeders Cup win but I thought that the market would be five votes not extremely large margin. It was whatever the number may be So those are the two words that I know. Jackie already conducted on them. Being a ton of most mystifying ones that I totally agree with you. There The apprentice one. I know it's not major award. Confuse me for a multitude of reasons that I could go on and on about but I just think that You Watch not go to a Jock. You're getting ready to go race in America. Considering the eclipse awards are an American award It'd be like getting the best horse in your heavy. Like getting enable horse year last year because he was an amazing horse even though he never ran in America so just a couple questionable votes Here and there but overall I was really happy with the outcome of the awards and I just want to specify I think you're saying with respect to two enables campaign in twenty nineteen where she did not run not with giving her two thousand eighteen eclipse award in two thousand Nineteen Eric's referring to I I think at least that you're referring to her campaign that you had last year receiving an eclipse award in two thousand twenty not retrospective two thousand eighteen thousand nine hundred Just just to make sure that there's not a misunderstanding on what he met there because I could see someone thinking. Well she did run That was two thousand eighteen so just want to clear that up just in case. Anyone didn't didn't get that clear but moving onto the other side of the weekend at Gulfstream Park. Obviously we got Pegasus World Cup and Pegasus World Cup turf to get to but one reset. I do just want to touch on really quick. Is the inside information. Pink Sands Windsor Fraternity showed mcgahey. I know you mentioned last week that you're very big into pick sands and this is the type of work that I would say Should we gay? He's a very smart horsemen but with respect to pick sans. This looks like a horse. It is very likely going to get an A. Now I know who? We're already started talking about Kentucky. Derby so breeders cup is very far away but thinking in the long term I could see her running in a Princess Rooney Handicap type race at Gulfstream Park Win. And you're in race in June. So that's what I expect out of Pink Sands but ver very nice run from her disappointing effort from spice perfection. Not really sure what happened. There are not really any excuse that you could point to but the the winner pink sands was spectacular young. I grew up at tone our last show and she definitely proved me right which was nice to see. I'm interested to see where Shug goes. Turn next because he seems to be versatile she the factories to close at golden would always a couple horses were actually having success with on? Edges Day which was a definitely a wire for that usually playing speed. You know no matter the pace And she did benefit from a quick peso. That was her her benefit. But at the same time I think her pure ability polar through he in In this spot so I'm interested to see you. Whether shug decides to stretch out to to turn where her pedigree suggests he could probably be Excel his Welsh. He is at the shorter distance. Or if he keeps for sure he obviously has You know nine months until the Breeders Cup to kind of figure out what he wants to do with her load to go. I do really like The fog for running in the Princess Rooney staying home getting a winning. You're in opportunity. And if I'm if I'm Shug mcgaughey I put one reason her. Probably at Keeneland in April. Wait until the participant need that. Bring her back at Saratoga. Whether it's in the personal ensign Going on eight or in a the baton to Ballerina which is seven furlongs. So I I think she could be a breakout star this year. Honestly Vince off of her performance here in her race before that. Soak what obviously shut it on gay he. He's very respected Horseman. Us Obviously GonNa make the right decisions matter where he runs her. So it'll be an intriguing prospect. No matter where she runs so now getting into a race. I know Eric was really upset about the pisses turf. We talked to have talked a lot. About how well Joel? Rosario has come along and not that he had crappy years in the past but how last year was really coming out for Joel. Rosario that race's not in the Pegasus turf is not going to go on Joel. Rosario is highlight reel to quote shape ribbon Zulu Alpha surprised. Everyone the horse that I was really into Magic Wand we said choosing win by five lengths or wind or run second. Because that's all she can seem to do and that's exactly what magic wand ran. Second Barely beat instilled regard but Talking about talking about the winners who alpha. What looks interesting to see what is going to happen with him. He's not among the horses that are going to be heading out to Dubai. He's going to stay stateside. Which would is a good move in my opinion on the part of Mike Maker Eleven to one winter not wanting to discount his ability but looking at the races that are going to be going on Dubai specifically the Dubai Classic and the Dubai Turf. Those races could feature superstar horses. Like Almond I and some of the other top horses in the world so and I don't think Zulu Alpha is in the class of beating horses like that so definitely the right decision to keep him stateside at what happened with Mo four once again arc. Low and Sadler's joy horses that I have been over for a long time. Did they didn't run bad. Fifth and sixth respectively for ARC loans joy but they didn't run bad instill regard. Eric's horse ran a very good third as I already mentioned but A lot of surprises in the Pegasus turf with the exception of magic wand running second. I'm not sure any person would be surprised by that. Nailed it right on the head there. magic wandering second. You know you just gotTa hope you're going to break through at some point. She's going to be running on the dirt in a Saudi cups. He's not going to win that race. We know that so now to start from now definitely be looking for her. Hopefully we'll get that through win for twenty twenty after she had one last year to the winner Zulu Alpa got a really good ride on. Saved all ground on the rail. It was one of the better ride. I think I've seen In a grassroots in a while honestly Put on a clinic against a bunch of the world's best writer so that was really impressive to me. reminded you sorry to cut you off there reminded me a lot of his run in the preakness on war of will. That's that's really really good analogy there. It's pretty much exactly you honestly if you compare the ride side by side. That's pretty much exactly what he did. and I mean tyler definitely own I don't think I'm I'm making a groundbreaking statement by saying he's going to be the next Jerry Bailey Gary Stevens whatever you WANNA call him. He is the future of the sport along with a couple of other of the younger writers and In terms of SUV allow for the Horse Definitely one of the weirder stories of just. He's always been kind of under the radar no matter what he's done he's won a lot. Are you want a couple of statehood? Say over the last year and a half great threes on there was hanging in there in the bigger races for him. To finally breakthrough was definitely interesting. Mike Niggers are really good Turf route trainer on so. I'm not shocked to see this horse be moved up because the trainer which I believe he definitely was considering. He's running in claiming races of retaliation that farms Just two years ago So you're in a really good race I could go on for an entire podcast. About how horrible Joel. Rosario right was Unless you had quinnell functional really no excuse for what he did other than just bad because the horse hustled up after a really bad break in Rosario in really WanNa stop and then off the turn. He made no effort to get after the horse. And the horses lugging hidden out everywhere. Dario is just sitting call in the next day. He had a very questionable ride state race at dinner. I need to So maybe just a rough weekend trigeminal Rosario instill. The dog is really the only other horse that Rian kind of how people expecting. You're in a really solid third He's flying under the radar right now. He's going to win a great great one. Great who later on this year I lived healing but where we'll find out later but his runs definitely not getting enough credit. Considering how good it was moving onto the Pegasus dirt of course not race featured the breakout so far this year. Mutual Gustavo. Now I know a lot of people are going to immediately jump in here when talking about Muccio Gustavo and say well. There was no spun to run. There was no Omaha beach. This is the third string baffert horse. There's no way you can say that. This is a superstar that does a disservice to Muccio. Gustavo this is a horse that aside from his run in the Oklahoma Derby which he did run for which I was reading that is a race. That was worse than it actually ended up being so that was me doing a disservice to that but Muccio. Gustavo ran a very very nice race actually very nice couple of races prior to his fourth and the Oklahoma Derby those being a second in the haskell where he basically made made maximum-security go all the way down the stretch with him. Maximum-security reach for everything and then following that running a race in the travers stakes behind code of honor who got votes champion. Three-year-old won the travers. Eventually went on to run a very nice second in the jacket with Gold Cup before being moved up to first following a disqualification and Tacitus who we've all said once hazardous gets his head on his shoulder. He is going to be a really really good horse. So to run third against that. Competition in the travers. That said a lot about Gustavo. And that's what I think. A lot of people are going to lose in this with the the notion of. Oh this is. Just another over hyped baffert horse or Omaha. Beach ran in this race so it was agreed to it was against grade two level competition. Muccio Gustavo is a really solid horse. And I'm not GonNa say that he's going to go on and become the next arrogate type horse but mutual goose is going to have some Nice Racist. As you're going to get some stakes wins eventually going into on the Breeders Cup trailers going next door to Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Cup that racist filling up pretty nicely but to underrate Muccio. Gustav which is what a lot of people are doing with. This works following that really. Nice run in the Pegasus World Cup. That does a disservice to the quality of a horse that he had in for me. I mean you have obviously been talking for quite a while how we respect a lot more than I think. The general public does So writing for him to break through thankfully princess both right but also on this horse is definitely going to have a really good twenty twenty Especially looking at the older male division. There's not a ton of competition that's lining up. So far I mean this was his groupie. Beating Pegasus was kind of not the best level but near there and known known really showed up to pace in those at people thought were. The courses couldn't really run big racist. Higher power was last heat speculation that he had health problems but nevertheless ran very poorly tax ran. Second to last on. That was just didn't have it. That game. Eating soul way past his prime if the races at Churchill he probably would have won but him same with tenfold. I might add those only seem to run well at that track And then Mr preoccupation really good for second I Uni Jack of talks that he could be Another Horse GonNa Break Out in Twenty Twenty Navy not at the classic distance but like Breeders Cup turmoil. Horse so as much as I like Musto Gustaf when I think he was miles. The best improved it in this room his There's still a lot to be. I'm he peace. Group is a good horse however he needs to step forward in Saudi up to win the performance and putting into the Pegasus will not win him. The Saudi puck or when him a race like the Breeders Cup classic down the road so over all I think he'd beat a rather Second Tier Handicap Division Group. But I think he is first Tier Quality Horse. Who could definitely make some noise this year? And that's really kind of the way that I feel about that. I want to give a huge shot by the way to Dale Romans. I was I put a pick in for Mr freeze when all the all the shenanigans happened with First Omaha Beach in our first fun around that Omaha beach going out. And then when the news came down that Baffert and Sadler weren't Gulfstream. That really soured me on those two horses in a higher power with good reason he ran last but really really good. Run FOR MR freeze. Right there You know that may have been a little bit of a bias in me with that. But Mr freeze a very nice worsen Eric. Point is right on point there with you know this is a good fit this a good field the forces but there's the degree of competition that Muccio Gustav is going to have going forward is not going to be what he had the Pegasus World Cup. And he's going to have to step it up if he wants to succeed the next level so with that. That's it for the Pegasus World Cup weekend. Talk that we have going into the stuff from this past weekend. As I mentioned at the top of the show I real meaningful week of Kentucky or weekend of Kentucky Derby Prep Races Racist Act Gulfstream Santita and Oaklawn park all four of those netting Kentucky Derby and oaks points will start down at Gulfstream with Tis. The law. The horse. It looks to be the one that was going to win to your championship. And then he had his very poor very poor run but didn't have his didn't have the best run in the Kentucky Jockey Club and Kinda lost the award there Tis. The law ran a very very nice race in the whole he had some traffic problems. Very eventful trip for him and It it just showed that he that he's not what that race in the Kentucky Jockey Club showed him to be and it's going to be very interesting to see how he goes Ford on the Derby trail. I know there's going to be the question marks with him being a Senate constitution and whether or not you know he'll start to have some of the problems that say a horse like tacitus had who in triple crown never really ran up to his victory in the wood memorial following. He has two wins in Tampa Bay Derby Wood Memorial and did not run up to those races for the rest of the year. So that would be right now. The one concern that I would have with him. But that looking at other horses and saying that he's GonNa be like that You can't necessarily do that with this right now from what we see from him. He's a really talented horse. In one of the leaders on the Kentucky Derby trail you covered all the bases there with his law I really liked the Taurus. Obviously I'm a big Doesn't kind of established over the last few months when huge constitution fan of the sire and I think the source has all the capabilities of Big Derby winner You know you cover all the points tiny hawk about who he'd be in this spot in honestly a bunch of courses with potential but it was unproven and we start with Toledo. The Chad Brown horse. Who Ran Third Iran a credible race but was wellbeing. He's really just a giant question. Mark at this point in everyone below him really just taking giant leap into despite that the runner up at Indian pronounce it He's a horse. I'm asking you really intrigued about As New Ford where and when he'll do it because you have the Patrick Biancone Barn So and headed biancone has another popular horse. Insult Allante. Who was second in the Mutual Macho man at the beginning of the year of the first real gulfstream dud rode the derby prep so It'll be interesting to see how you won an allowance race to strike back very impressively and then As well as he was being by his law it was really only three or four lakes. And this horse didn't have exactly the easiest of trips So moving forward especially because I've seen that the connection to choose the law are possibly planning on running the Louisiana before his final start. I do wonder if it could be the horse emerges from Florida either a winner or second because doubt forget points all he has to do really now is to run second in the Florida Derby. And he'll be in to the Kentucky Derby so he's one to watch looking forward desperately. Don't discount him wherever he prompts next. Going up to Ecuador to the Greek three withers Max Player for the the barn of Linda. Rice owner George Hall. You remember those names with a roller ice Kelly. Brains can be on the show later later in the week but Talking about this horse. He beat shots us. A very nice winner of the renaissance stakes back. In December consecutive two consecutive wins after running second in his first start a maiden at parks came back won his second race to that was also maiden special weight at parks and then getting on these steaks train with a win. In the weather's it'll be interesting to see what this rate. What comes from him from this. After this race passably pointed you could see him go. The same route is tax Tax. When the weather's and then went to run second the wood memorial could see that from him Not Very disappointed with shot ski. I wasn't very enthusiastic about him. Not Saying that he was a bad worse at all but You know he ran in the streets ends prior to his run in the REMINGTON. And then you know He. He won that race but I was never super into shot ski I would definitely look for him to rebound in another race whether that be upbeat up at Ecuador's or down at Gulfstream or anywhere else where they would decide to take him but Max player. Ju just put his name in among among the leaders for the Kentucky Derby I I definitely parallel to tax. In terms of physically pedigrees are really nothing alike Or their connections but physically remind you lot of each other and I think they're both. I think Max players from a follow up the tax routes give the GOP and cutting back to a one mile and go straight to the wood memorial and I think he's maybe not the top level contender he's definitely not continues to laws independence halls of the world right now but he definitely one to keep an eye on because he wanted to spread off a maiden win and the connection said he seems to have all the town in the world but mentally he even. Now it's still kind of trying to put it all together so when I hear that from connections I I can tell that you know that in the Horse wins the race as impressively as Max player. Did I think that both really well? Moving forward for the Horse Shop Ski does not seem to be getting the loved. He was getting heading into the race. And you know even after He you're in a really good race. He wasn't being in that much and he still not getting much respect. So he's a lot like Eddie on where I think you know eat somehow finds the light field or if he gets a navien easier pace in a race like the wood memorial against Max Player for instance. He definitely you know. Wayne or run a close set us. Those top two are really the two. I'm GonNa take away from this race but Porto's if if you can make early Belmont wages right now. Put All your money on it because that horse could run for days. I'm telling you when he's not he's basically tapper it reincarnated he's not gonna come running very fastly but he will come running late and he'll deputy definitely would eat up every single into those twelve furlong. So Porto's is my early Belmont pick. You can sign you up for that but anything shorter than the mile and a half I. He's media cost me moving on to go in Oakland for a minute. It would be doing a disservice not to talk about Toronto. Ause the the Buzz Philly. That's jumping to the Kentucky Derby conversations with the connection saying that they would consider running her against males on the Derby trail if she won the race at the at Oakland the Martha Washington. She did exactly that not as visually impressive as I think. Some people may would have expected it to be. But there's not really anything you can knock her from that race. Very nice run for her. The one question mark that I would have for her going forward as she is. A daughter of into mischief and into mischief has not been the most successful with producing horses. That can do much going past a mile but every horses. They're on their own worse going forward so I don't like to compare and say well because none of these other horses have been able to do it. That means that she's not gonna be able to do it so I'm not going to jump into that camp but it will be. It will be able to tell from her where she goes going forward. The route that most likely is going to be the way they going to run her in the honeybee. Try to get try to get the points to the Kentucky Oaks. And then maybe run her in one of the one hundred point. Derby preparations were all they would need to do. Is Run second and if you look at the some of the some affiliate have gotten into the Kentucky Derby specifically genuine risk is one that comes to mind she wanted. She didn't win the wood memorial. She ran second in that that was enough to get her into the Kentucky Derby in Bolt that time and if they use the modern system back in nineteen eighty so that that's all that would have to do. There's not really much that we need to be done for. Toronto to get to the Kentucky Derby. I know a lot of people are. She's a real buzz buzz philly and I it would be great for her to run in the Kentucky Oaks but Amin Excuse me the Kentucky Derby but we gotta get there. I you make some great points. There Jack in the pedigree thing is definitely I think what is kind of scaring them. Most people We talked about Benthic last month. After a sham when he's also a set of intimacy Similar pedigrees actually to rise with the big difference with them physically off any built like like more of a sprinter I'd say just in terms of his lengths and his when you look at his hindquarters you definitely seemed to have the power was for terrell us just overall is probably the biggest intimacy I've ever seen. She's towering over everybody as very long. You Know Body. That would suggest that she's going to be a distant towards down the road in the Martha Washington on Saturday indicates to me that there's a lot more left in her She didn't really have been getting going yet so physically. I think she has all the capabilities can go the distance really. It's not her fault. Knowing Soda Per Racer you know. We had the winner of the trapeze states at a running tin which is basically the female equivalent of the springboard mile and that horse ran last print sooner. Julia therapy and who was a really impressive? Native winner at the fairgrounds in her last star came back and ran second but Dhabi. That's not talk to your talent and you'll see later on down the road so it's not her fault knowing came to racer She was barely touched like Laurent through And she just has more and more to give you can tell us about. Honeybee will obviously be the deciding factor. I really don't think many horses tried to face her there either But either way I think she she is a Derby Horse establishing now I think that he has all the intangibles to be a horse that they you know. I mentioned the Tis the laws and independence hall. I think she could be right. Up there with him I think she just need one. More is to really prevent another one to keep an eye on in the undefeated campus. The four for four total shape. She got her first win in a graded stakes race. Saffy Joseph within the next couple of years is gonNA take a big jump in probably become one of these mainstream trainers and toneless shape is going to be one of those forces that is going to carry him going forward and really established him as one of the top one of the top up and coming trainers very nice win for her. In the forward Gal is she sat sat as a stocker ran right by the pacesetter compensate and went on to win a very nice. Very nice run for her in the forward. Gal Seven furlongs. We'll see where she goes from here. But I all I all I have to say about tonal. Shape is good things. There's not really much to knock her for She she's one of the leaders in the Kentucky. Oaks camp underrating leader and that I think the most impressive thing People people who are listening probably remember toneless. Her Sire obviously In the name so it should be quite obvious that he is her sire But what impresses me the most Tony a Horse? Who really could not win. Unless the distance with ten furlongs for further a mile quarter or further and year totally shape bring in the longest. Run is a mile in under that she'd been running six and seven furlongs one turn and she's been blowing them out of the water and her pedigree suggests all she should be able to run distances like on violent a quarter and longer winning at the short distances. I'm I think that she is the real deal And then touching on Taffy Joseph. He's on strong this year. I mean looking at the statistics. He is just winning race after race at the beginning of the year. I think he won four states within the first two weekends of the year. He's winning at nearly forty percents rate Thirty eight percent to be exact to start this year. Which is absolutely insane So I think he has. I mean this is going to be. I mean we go back Brad Cox Would when Montemar girl broke onto the scene gave him his first grade one I think we have. I mean Ozzy Savvy. Joseph one is I G- one with math wizard in the Pennsylvania. Derby last night. Wizard is not of the level. That savvy Joseph has here with Tone was shape so I could definitely see toneless shape being the next monoploy girl for his first in terms of you know paralleling the trainer breakthrough horse. I think that this Horse Cook Pie. Tara's doesn't run the Kentucky oaks tunnel shaped probably wouldn't that's Kentucky Oaks. That looks to be shaping up very nicely and we have a couple of horses that haven't yet run on the Kentucky. Oaks trail those being the eclipse award winner. British idiom. Actually really only British. Admi did forget that best Did run this year back in January. But she's on the trail as well but very talented Kentucky oaks trail e even if to rise doesn't run there and if Tara's there's GonNa be a lot a lot of people not very enthusiastic about running against her a couple few stakes races at Santa Anita to get to obviously the great three Robert. Louis was the Kentucky Derby Prep Race and thousand words showed that the Loselle futurity was not just a product of four Horsfield and not really much competition there. He ran a very very solid race to win. The Robert Louis gets his second gets a second set of ten points. Now has twenty on the Kentucky. Derby trail going forward. And you know Bob Baffert has already had the two other horses. The maiden winner Nidal. Who became the Big Buzz Buzz Horse and authentic before him and the two that came before those two eight rings and thousand words kind of got lost in the the focus on those two horses and thousand wars put himself back in the conversation. You know around this time. Last year in February we were looking at Bob sources and he had three or four horses that looked like they could all go on the Kentucky Derby trail ultimately he did bring three to the Kentucky. Derby so and I think this is another year we're baffert over under would probably be two and a half and take the over on the amount of forces at Bob Baffert would bring to the Kentucky Derby. He's got a really talented group of three year olds this year. Obviously we've talked a lot about authentic and Nidal to this point but it is time to look back at an remember. The thousand words is also one that is really really talented horse in Two time stakes when agreed to now grade three winter and we'll see where he goes forward from here. Yeah I'm I'm GonNA touch on Bob. Apper packer really quick. BOB's talent this year. It is definitely not the same. As last year. He had the two year old champion. He had you know roadster come on lay. He had a bunch of really nice horses. assembled in his barn and the same applies issue. However I'm not been blown away by any of the horses at you send out yet. Game winner I mean. It's it's it's hard knobby blown away by a horse that Chiro Champ Undefeated year When the Breeder's cup juvenile in impressive fashion like I was blown away by game winner at this point last year this year. No one's doing it in face off two thousand words race last last Last Saturday You know he ran a good race and one very one nicely but he didn't eat much and he didn't beat them by a lot and that's kind of the concerning part. Two Horse was the runner-up Royal Act has a promising future but He was a grant for up until this point in high-velocity was the second best competition coming in here in a third. But Bob Roberts said he doesn't want to go to turn so thirty thousand words kind of seems to use the bathroom. The Front runner in the Barn Right now. And you know News broke today. That eight rings probably not going to make the rebel which to me. Indicates that he's not GonNa make if you can't make the rebel which is an seven or eight weeks out from the Derby or is a week before horse are making their final prep for the Derby so to me. It's GonNa make it in a doll seems to be you. Don't authentic have to the front runners right now And but once again I haven't seen something from either than this manny say. Wow there were Jig. Top Level Derby contented. I know some people would disagree If you listen to our show from last month after authentic when the annual here why. I'm not convinced about yet so in terms of bathroom. I'm not all the way there on really any of his horses. Despite the fact he has a lot of them And overall knockin use the Bob Lewis has a important going forward Unless thousand words faces field that somehow worse than this one It's going to be very hard for me to pick him in his next race. That is actually interesting. I did not catch that. The news broke about eight range of that. That does take a hit on the Bob Baffert. Barn going forward but Moving onto we talked about roadster so why not jump into the sand pass wall and if you thought I if you could your opinion on roadster if you thought your opinion on roadster couldn't go any lower this weekend just said right over here Thoughts on roadster. Just just a horse. It cannot win one of the one of the more overrated horses that we've had in the past Past couple of years you know he won the Santa Anita. Derby looked like he was going to be a really really talented horse. Rain Sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby and just not been able to put it together since then but I don't want to spend the whole segment bashing roads are going to talk about mid core. We talked about him after he won after he ran. Second behind gift box in the San Antonio gift box is not going to be in California for for the next several months neither is McKinsey or any of the other top older horses. So the the question that I would have with court. He is going to be the favourite for next month's Santa Anita Handicap. That's on the seventh of March. He should win that race. The question that I have with him is what kind of older horse easy. Because I've seen two types of there's two types at midcourt could become. I've seen a horse like accelerate. Do this when all the other forces went to Dubai and accelerators swept up all the great. It's all the graded stakes races in California when the handicapped won the Gold Cup and Excel. Return into an eclipse award winner. Got The year votes but of course of the year if there wasn't a triple crown or he could turn into another horse like Melatonin. The five year old gelding. Who won the Santa Anita Handicap? In Two Thousand Sixteen. He also won the Gold Cup Out that there was really any thing wrong with Melatonin. Melatonin never really turned into anything special. You didn't you ran one race after the Gold Cup. Which was the Bruce? Plus he fifth in that so I it would be interesting to see what those two character type state Midcourt becomes I would lean more towards the Melatonin camp. But I'm not GONNA say that mid court is not a really solid or force because that's what my opinion on a really solid older words in California. It Really Really Nice. Move by connections to keep him out here he's going to get some nice stakes wins in the United States while everyone else is out in the Middle East on their record this group how he should have He's don't have a bad performance bad by instincts to starts back on the neither diver. Extremely impressively I was convinced and San the San Antonio where he lost to give Fox. I just wasn't the horse. A lot of people expected heading in especially considering the competition but he came back in this spot and you blew me away just handled a group. That's definitely average and he handled them with eased So I think that makes him an absolute locked to win the big CAP. If you lose the big cap I would be some someone. Very impressive would have skip a Middle Eastern race and instead come over to California in place him and beat him. Impressively for me to be convinced you. Wouldn't you know win the cabinet? You made excellent point after that what we see from him in any it really does depend on how he handles the next start in the one after that because he can continuously you know dominate these lower level. Horses without confident recoup competence. Excuse me that he can handle those horses. But if you beating you know two hundred five in this race in two thirty five horse to not great one level if he's only beating that horse by half length every time Midcourt definitely not there. I am intrigued by the third place. Finisher combatant We've seen John Sadler time and time again You know basically flipped these. You know average allowance level horses from Trad Brown and before that I can think of hearty five or six years ago. That he bought off Larry. Jones turned him into a grade. One winner Gift boxes now grade one winner and combating for interrupting third off a reasonable layoff for new connections in a completely different environment. Although he was well beating definitely look for him next time going forward if the case that's for him well or something to that effect He could be extremely interesting. I'm excited for him. Down the MIDCOURT. I think you're guessing. Read a leader in the clubhouse In order to have division in southern California and I think he will be up and Kelly face. You know an elite horse at the level of Mackenzie or McKenzie himself. It is worth mentioning. You know. We talked about Combatant this'll horse it. Two years ago in two thousand eighteen rain eighteenth in the Kentucky Derby and now he's in a position you know that's a very good point that you bring up about John Sadler his ability to take these out horses at rent run poorly in these stakes races. Take them off the trainers like Steve. Apps and Chat Brown gift box. Another perfect example. Take them flip them and turn them into really solid graded stakes winners not not that can combat and has yet to do that but specifically with looking at his past with our horses like you mentioned hard aces on the Gold Cup one of the couple years back as well as gift box but it would be interesting to see what we see from Midcourt I have absolutely no sources on this but the the route that I would like to see them. Go after the Big Cap. Go down to oaklawn. Run them in the Oakland handicapped. And I would say that. That would probably be the last race that mid court would be a for sure slam dunk contender in before he would have to. That would probably be the last race. He would run before he would have to run against a really tough horses. Actually that would. I shouldn't say that because that would depend on who runs in the Gold Cup but I don't see him coming Pacific classic time having it necessarily really that easy but regardless of that for now midcourt is leader of the pack and he should unless someone runs absolutely out of their shoes. Which you know roadsters not GonNa do that. Mid Chord is probably the leader in the pack for the time being moving onto the San Marcos. A great race on the grass that race was won by united who was waiting to break through off of consecutive. Really good seconds behind bricks and mortar horses year performance. Breeders Cup Turf. He pushed him right to the end of the wire. And that's when people kind of started to see fifty to one Was a really big overlay on that horse. In the Breeders Cup he ran second the Hollywood Turf Cup now. He gets his greatest. Sakes win not really much to say otherwise. I was really been really impressed by him Since the Breeders Cup and it's good to see him. Now get that graded stakes win in a an older male division on the grass. That is lacking at this point superstar. Not Saying that he's going to turn into that but on this division that seems very wide open he could get some more graded stakes. Wins going forward this this division like you said it isn't it lacks a superstar but it is pretty solid. These horses would not be winning up. portrays that comes ahead is like the Manhattan on my day. None of these horses. In the west coast older male Turkish will be winning that race but they sure they surely make for exciting races in their own division down in southern California for united apparently pointing to buy next. And as good as this horse is he is not that level. I know you're in second in the Breeders Cup turf bind bricks and mortar and beat some. Ub The absent Darby when an engineer dyke in the process but I have not seen enough from united to this point to prove he can beat those high quality horses halfway across the world so I think he here probably you know clean up all the races that there are to offer but unfortunately they seem to have bigger plans and he could be wrong but I highly doubt considering some horses that are handled into run there But the runners-up Cleopatra Strike in Oscar to me gets he ran third those tours earth. Fun To Watch Vesey for me on the West Coast Guy So obviously the California horses. I definitely Get you know watch more get more excited about especially on the grass in addition to being a less though sky also grassroots until those two horses just really old school type courses. That are fun to watch Remind me of a horse early nineties named the NBN who obviously was raised at the time was racing topper horses down in southern California but they both remind me of Byan physically so fun to watch. Definitely division I liked but For United It'd be even more fun on the division. Be More Fun to United State home rather than you watch him run second collapse to Dubai in two months who'll be NBN. That's an interesting name to drop their. I haven't heard that one in a while baton. Yeah so a lot of interesting stuff going forward. Obviously we got some more derby preparations. We'll be back later this week to talk about the prep races. This Sanford Santa. The LAS version is Santa Sunday. No points are up for grabs in that race but it is is agreed to it will see the return of champion two year old male storm the court and As well as the last verges that is the first ten point graded stakes race on the Kentucky Oaks trail out in out at Santa Anita so those are next week as well as the return of Independence Hall from his win on New Year's Day in Jerome. He's running in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay downs. So those races are coming up. We'll talk about those later on in the week Some other stuff coming on a couple of weeks from now. We've got the risen star and Rachel Alexandra. Those two are the first fifty point preferences as well as some other stakes races at oaklawn. I believe the I believe the southwest is also on that Risen Star Day but aside from that Saudi or Saudi Arabia. Saudi Cup is coming up the week after that so interesting stuff to say these. Pardon me. It's coming the week after that but interesting stuff to say the least going forward. Derby trail is now starting to heat up. We had some meaningful. Preparations will be talking a lot about the Kentucky Derby over the course of this show as well as getting into Saudi Arabia and stuff. That is it for this week. We'll see later on this week and we talk about all the stuff on Kentucky Derby trail.

Kentucky Derby Kentucky Derby trail Kentucky Derby trail Eric Gold Cup Kentucky Oaks John Sadler Dubai California wood memorial Male Turf Horse Kentucky Derby Pegasus World Cup Bob Baffert Saudi Cup Rosario Charlie Some Joel
Episode 50: San Felipe, Santa Anita Handicap

Racing Rundown: A Horse Racing Podcast

53:23 min | 1 year ago

Episode 50: San Felipe, Santa Anita Handicap

"All right here we go. We're back on racing down today. Episode Number Fifty. We got a lot of stuff to get to today. Three fifty three fifty point preparations on the docket for this week. In one hundred Fifty Kentucky Derby points up for grabs three more horses will be on their way to Churchill. Downs weekend. There's also a bunch of other stakes around the country this weekend most notably the grade. Santa Anita Handicap. So we'll get to all those book. I we gotta get to the action from this past weekend in Saudi Arabia and the conversation is coming up at. I've seen it come up in multiple different areas is about the winner of the Saudi. Maximum Security You know that is probably the most the Kentucky Derby incident and you know. I'M NOT GONNA come on here and you know say that the Saudi Cup has anything to do with the decision that was made at Churchill. Downs or anything like that or argue that the disqualification now because he's one twenty million dollars. Saudi Cup shouldn't happen I I am not gonNA come on here. Make that argument I just off you know really looking at it. It's unfortunate that happened because maximum security is really just such a tough horse. And you know there's not enough good things you can say about maximum security and you know that raise really showed that maximum security is one of the best horses in the world and obviously right now. The leader of the pack in the United States for older horse. Right now and be really cool to see this horse competing for your old year and you know depending on where he goes from here. Obviously you know. They already mentioned that. He's not going to Dubai. But just where MAC security goes from. Here I'm excited to see that. And what he has in store you know. I'm sure Eric will have some of his things. Say about maximum security. But that's something not lost museum. Fortunate -ness of the disqualification at the Kentucky Derby. Because you know this is a really really fantastic horse for sure. I mean he's slowly and steadily starting to shed that tag of being the Horse Sector disqualified from the Kentucky Derby even though it will always remember that way. If you were to continue what you did last weekend easily going to be more remembered as one of the better horses heading into this decade in this early part of the century the obviously he's now ten million dollars in earnings in at this stage career. It's only getting go go higher. It'll be interesting to see where he gets brought back. I met in. Saratoga is kind of the midseason point. Four the connections there But honestly I think he's already cemented. His legacy added great horse. Just you know like cigar did way back when of when he won the inaugural Dubai World Cup. Maximum security is going to be able to say the same thing for the Saudi Cup where he'd be a really good group of Horses. I might add Definitely was not lighten any sense I think every horse for the most part Ranta form in the Saudi Cub ibew. Probably the biggest surprise people contend but definitely not be By a quarter of a lengthy Iran. Huge She's also in so many other horses from the race but maximum security Kind of a rough trip was definitely a target especially for teas on Mutual Gustavo. Louisa has had to get created down the stretch. But you work down in that. Horses has tons and tons of heart. I don't really know I've seen a horse. Who Does Not WanNa let him worse by like maximum security does. It's quite impressive. How this works bears down to every time he races and I just think I I I think we all know. He's in pre twenty twenty if he stays healthy yeah. That was another thing that I didn't quite get that opening. Bid Is the fact that you know. Maximum security did all that won the race while Iran Ortiz was basically writing interference. I made the comment to Eric Baxter. Excuse jokers still out there kind of looked like a NASCAR and now you can say all you want about. How you know. Probably wasn't the best rider. You didn't have good character of Iraqis. I thought it was a good strategy on his part to do what he could to be. Maximum security obviously probably definitely in this country If he would probably would have been disqualified but I thought it was good on his part to do his best to win. Win The race. And try to keep maximum-security away because I don't think I if you run that race normally maximum-security just goes by with the rules over there. They run category One rules which unlike in America the disqualification rules are if you preventing a worse from running their best race. You get disqualified. There is. That's worse when when you run interference or not so if mutual Gustavo Iraqis does dat but the horse wins by Lincoln half. It's not a problem. Give what was within the rules so it was a good ride? Bhai Iran It was definitely a little malicious. I certainly Jason Service not lease with IRA. Teaser was on the first things. He made a comment about after the race. In the in an interview shortly after On national television I might add But at the same time that's I mean the races aren't one you know like a track meet where you can necessarily go between the lane. This horse racing and that kind of stuff can fly to an extent maybe a little over the edge. I think especially when acting security job inside. I really started to hurt an inside but I was happy that I read never intentionally drew contact although he was doing some blocking like you said NASCAR ask He never intended to make contact which I think was probably the safest thing and when he when he knew the horses about to go by he kind of backed off on trying to get through so are running more interference so while maybe was maybe a little militias It definitely was good race riding on his part all right so that. That's it for this stuff with the Saudi Cup Stripping back over Cross sees out before we get to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks preparations that you want to highlight a Horse Zulu al folk who is turning into his own. You know I will highlight at about this point last year. This is were bricks and more bricks and mortar was not not saying that Zulu Alpha is going to be the next bricks mortar. Or anything like that. But you know he could do similar things to where it's very likely he's going to do similar things to what bricks and mortar didn't very likely that this is probably the top tier force in the United States. This year. You know at this point last year. Bricks and mortar was a great one Winnipeg World Cup turf and and then he had a great to race. I believe it was either at fairgrounds are one of the tracks Louisiana so to this point Zulu Alpha grade one winner Pegasus World Cup turf now. He's agreed to winner The Mac Ramadan down at Gulfstream. This past weekend. I think Zulu Alpha's in for a really strong really really strong two thousand twenty Keep your eye on him. Come for race like the turf classic the Kentucky Derby Undercard. That's where I would him go but not saying Zulu Alpha is an expert in order. But I'm not saying that he isn't either into Rena. Bricks and mortar was able to have consistent success last year is because all the worst is behind him weren't consistent. I mentioned on the show last week. That Group of forces that Zulu Alpa was facing. He actually used to be a part of that group they never were able to consistently put together strong back. That rates it's bricks. Mortar took it to a new level. Easily able to string together back Multiple consecutive good races in a row. And that's what God in his horse of the year title. And if these keep going the weather going is do. The wealth is going to be able to do the same thing last year Even though I was Kinda surprised after neier introduced the Turks Trinity Series that no horse really emerged from that as premier career force and to be chair. I mean we see that with Dirt horses as well on the on the Derby trail. They don't always shape out after the triple crown trail to be good and that kind of creates inconsistencies in the handicapped division like we saw maybe back Towards the end of maybe before the end of two thousand seventeen that you're got stronger as it went on but nevertheless China look into Alpa. Maybe like an expert in order. I wouldn't be surprised because once again the turf division isn't strong and If I'm going to throw one out there vitality is probably the best grass three year old male out there And I know. The connections are keen. Distract him out so he could be wanted content we know. He has loads talent. So at this point Zulu Alpha is primed at least stay home maleter force because so far. There are no challengers within a mile oven. So I'll also want to mention very quickly. Law Wasn't a good weekend for Dale Rome overall at Gulfstream. He does have a really fine horse in Mr Freeze. You know I talked about him. Pegues World Cup. That was a really fine performance by him. A second place now. He wanted to Gulfstream Park Mile. Go not to do by. He'll run on the good often mile I could see this horse is a horse could potentially get a great one win. I don't think he's a top older horse but he's in that second tier of you know very good horses. That could get a grade two. Maybe you know if favorable circumstances happened upset a great blonde but you know Mr. Freezes that kind of horse that you know. That's a great one race that is GONNA be a viable type horse. Probably doesn't win but he's still very fine horse so some good news out of the deal. Romans burned but on a day. That was supposed to be Denis's moment day. I texted Eric after that race. In you know I was a person who I've been on Dennis's moment since really since I saw him when the earthquake especially after Dale Romans on the show and I had mentioned that I liked Denis before I talked to Dale and after Dale. I love this horse. Something's clearly not right with Dennis's moment I mean you know there's you can lose a race. That's one thing and even. Dale said this. You know losing races one thing. But running last in Fountain of Youth Stakes like that. Dennis's moment is obviously better than running last in a stakes race like that so obviously something's not right with him whether he hasn't fully progressed from his two year old year or could be something physical we don't know They're never gonNA check that out and we'll hear from that one day they figure that out but something is obviously not right with Dennis's moment and he should be a lot better than that and we'll see where they go go with him going forward. I'm not overly optimistic. That he will get to the Kentucky Derby. He's still got a chance at one more preparation if they do decide to go that route with him but not overly optimistic. But there's still a chance you don't tug on Dennis's MOMA BEFORE I go to Mr Freeze del Romans. He said the still can't find out what was wrong with him and maybe he needed the time or maybe he hasn't taken that necessary step forward of two to three years old either way. There's a one more race to kind of prove that he's a derby horse that'll be wherever Romans puts him. I hope it's Bluegrass. That'd be the easiest fought for him and we've seen we've seen horses run poorly in the Fountain of Youth and come back and run a really huge race next time out. Addict of former champion is the first one that comes to mind is saying that Garam just other horses that performed poorly first off of a layoff from their two year old campaign. Brody's 'cause lost. The Tampa Bay became back. One the Blue Rask. So the IT'S NOT. How pressing is heavy from the Romans? Part of obviously we still are. He's showing lots of town. We're GONNA talk about Hin scrolling. His second hidden. Scroll with a horse. You Navy didn't have the maturity of time but because we saw that Clemson town who was replicated at another point in his career. Whether that's the next for Dennis's moment time will only tell us for now. I my I'm not here to say that he doesn't have the talent of because I don't think that was his best race in the Fountain of Youth Onto Mr Producer. He's I think he's going to be the most legitimate horse. Whoever comes to face him in the Godolphin Mile? It's going to be good group like it is every year this. I mean he's now a great stakes out of one turn mile multiple. I should say he won the act last fall at Churchill downs. He's really just kind of a a Rodney Dangerfield type at this point. His career doesn't get get much respect looking at you know his past performances. He won the West Virginia Derby last fall in his fourth career. Start Use really late developing type of broke his maiden in his first start in April April at keeneland on my ad. So it's not like he was the worst that could have possibly been on the table and just had some weird spotting I think he he missed some time Here and there to to make it up now. He's he's a five year old and he's seemed to just really progressed since that time off from When he missed time lateral from last year from January two to August I. If I'm still Romans this is probably the most excited about as we move into the spring and if if he can win the get all the mile. I wouldn't be surprised to see if you would go off. His fear Internet mile especially kind of looking at how things are shaping up in the older male handicapped addition. We're GONNA have these core. We don't really have true. Meyler type like if you've looked at the last couple met mile winners. He's been you know it's holy. Who was fortunate enough that he had the ability to stretch that spring ability to a mile and then be Jersey and mind your biscuits both kind of the same horse so those two alone prove that you need to be able to specs like at a mile to win that net mile and I think that this course has that talent I'm excited about it Do I did all been mile in. Dubai is going to be the The test form though he can win their he'll it'll give us a good idea of how will perform the rest of the year so eric did mention and we want to talk about hidden. Scroll you know obviously in allowance races. Not someone to look at and say all right. Well this is you know top tier competitor again. But I talking to to Eric and people who've asked me privately about installing Dennis's moment about in school. This is the opinion I had him. You know the Kentucky Derby Trail was obviously obviously didn't work out for them last year But to say that the narrative that didn't scroll was never a good horse just never really set right with me because I always had the idea that horse goes out and wins his maiden race fourteen at half lakes. Gulfstream does have the the reputation of especially when it's went to carry speed like that and you get a lot of flashy made winters like that but to go out and win a maiden race by fourteen fourteen lengths and change There has to be something there now. What that something is is still up in the air. But it's definitely. I never felt that in school was a one race. Wander Type Horse. And there's definitely some talent there and you know it probably was just a case of he wasn't ready you know either physically or mentally or possibly both for you know to go on a Kentucky Derby trail running you know I said this last year You know he he. His first start was in was in January of two thousand eighteen. And you know obviously with justify having on the Kentucky Derby after not having run as a two year old. A lot of people are going to start sniff thinking that it's more pot. Sit that someone does it or did it. It's GonNa make it that it's going to happen more often. There's a reason why we went one hundred thirty two something whatever. The one hundred thirty something years between horses not running as a two year old winning the Kentucky Derby because it's a hard thing to do and to now automatically say that every course that doesn't run as a two year old that runs well in the preparation is now going to be justified. I I've never never been a person to buy that You know but I will say within. Swirl there's definitely some talent there and you know it's good to see him back in the winner's circle and we'll see where he goes from here on most interested. He needs his best to raise as of now come at a one turn distance or winter that he covered one nine and change which is which is pretty solid for six furlongs especially off comeback and winning by that big of a margin. I don't know we're next would be for this course. Arrays like the Carter is doing that. that risky he could definitely ship to acqueduct for that even then undercard race on the On the Florida Derby Card could also be in play. I think he is another type. That could aim for met mile if he can have a really good race in between this star in that mile start And then run willamette mile that would kind of give an indication of how how he is a horse in. What fits invest for instance. If he's able to wind mile by multiple links. We can kind of hordes navy getting up to those classic listens. She's just going to depend on where he goes next. But that's kind of scary to me as someone I think. I think personally has loads potential. Don't know what kind of Horsey is still. I based off his past reasons. I think he's a sprinter however pedigree physical build how you trains suggests otherwise so. It's really just going to be interesting. I'm not fully convinced as you can probably tell but I'm excited. I think the source with the right races right trip right. Training has all the potential in the world. So that's it for racing action from the past week and now moving up to Ecuador before we get to the Kentucky Derby and oaks preparations. I do WANNA touch on two of the undercard stakes that feature a pair of Greg. Soko horses a those being a mind control in the Tom. Fool was lessard out a winner in the great three Toboggan and Jovi. Who's running the stymie? My control word. We're talking about horses that you know you're going to hear a saint. A lot in this episode is a potential met Mile Horse but this another strikes me as you know. A potential possible met Mile Horse. You know. Mind Control. I've always been really high on this horse. Use A grade one winner to grade one winner at three. He won a couple of steaks last year. That you won the jerome. And then he won the the bay shore and then he went on to win the Allen Jerkins last year so this a horse that you know obviously has tout grade into dual grade one winner and you know a one of few other stakes races in his career as well so really talented. Mind Control and Jovial. Who had that really nice race in the Belmont stakes didn't run necessarily too well in the razorback. You should get a break in. This spot. Stood definitely stepped down in class but You know a lot of people think back to that that run in the Belmont stakes and you know he wanted allow already as an allowance winner at aqueduct. So could definitely see him build off of those performances You know the Greg Soccer's got a couple good horses coming out this weekend. Definitely more excited to mind control purely. Because he's he's the grade one winner and was killed Around him if he handles it like he showed doesn't have any He'll be very decisive. Winner in is crying. I mean the sprint division. This year is kind of up in arms chance ally is going to be missing. You buy it just like he missed the study. Sprint and We're GONNA talk of. We didn't talk about imperial hand but performed poorly this past weekend so sprint vision that we came into this year off of a really strong. Your last year really excited at his kind of already scheduled just two months of the year. And this is the prime. Boris Greg Soccer has been really smart with how he's placed in and if he wins here I think he. He's trying for a huge twenty twenty so many of the other horses. We've talked about already on this show of Julia. Definitely the best horse in the race based off of their past starts. It's a solid group who shown potential throughout but no one's really put it all together for a string of racist job area. It's pretty interesting as your second. Run third in the Belmont and then come back at US sprint. Distance and win An allowance race so the stymied a perfect spot for him. Especially if you're looking to move forward off that I'm intrigued by him. I think he's GONNA run. Huge great tacos can easily get teased. Aches wins on the aqueduct card on Saturday. Also on the academic Carter as we mentioned show a couple of Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks Point Preparations We'll talk about the pusher I if this feature the comeback of Lake Avenue who has not run since her winning the Demos L. and I'll say this to you know be briefed on this or anything but very likely that. Lake Avenue is the class of this field. She does have the words that ran second. Hurt Marketing trainy but You know I I see no reason. Why Lake Avenue shouldn't be heavily favored to win this. The butcher she's a she's affiliate highlighted of on our on my maiden segment. I usually do and I. I'm just in love with this silly. I think she's Kentucky. Oaks winner if all goes well. She has loads potential. She's already a winner at A mile in which I think is huge a going back honestly Mike Kentucky Duke in two thousand eighteen. I believe it was maybe the year before when monmouth girl one. I wonder Godot when she was about twenty. Two one heading into that Oaks but I really liked her based off the fact. She had a early experience with a mile an innate. She knew the distance of the race. And I think that. Just philly's Kinda the same type. Obviously audible layoff which is scary but bill machen handle them well and I just think she's definitely the class of skills. This is decent group but Lake Avenue is definitely the best Even we're going back to that win. Last time out in November broke from the twelve post away outside was able to clear in lead in Gohire wire. And I think if you're able to do that in your Off of a maiden win you obviously kept proved yourself and she just has to stay healthy and a half clean trips. I once again. I think she's a Kentucky oaks winner so taking a look at the Gotham. Now this Arista Eric and I have talked about this a little bit. You know Kinda something that's lost a little bit of a p lost a lot of its appeal in the Derby trail with the withers now being a derby preparation everything you know this one turn mile And it doesn't really make that much sense for horses. That run in the withers to come back from a mile and an eighth back to a one turn mile so That's why you're not seeing any of the shot skis or the Max players the horses. That have already run an aqueduct. Not Coming in this spot right here. A yogurt and a couple of horses from that from the swell steak specifically mischievous Alex Couple talking about the the Smarty Jones and a fleet out connection Smart John Service into a fleet. Alex owners come teaming together up with this horse Probably that would be the worse than I would go with in this spot but again you know. It's not really a race that bears well for horses especially like the Max Player. Type the winner of the mild anyth- threats that makes no sense to cut back Quebec basically from eight Furlough Quebec and entire furlong. Yeah in this is I. I know you were talking before the show. This is a group. I love this evening. Prep for the woody Stevens or the Allen. Jerkins not the wood memorial to try and get into the Derby. And even if you're looking at a pedigrees there's not many horses in this race with a classic distance pedigree just quickly glancing at it To Cal cal met Horses Flap Jack and First Deputy. The nine eleven are probably the only horses where the top sire and the dam sire both have a distant experience in distance kind of Offspring so a little interesting to see how this all shakes out in the other horse. Who I'm actually GonNa talk for quite a bit about is the three were stopper of was really nice. Pedigree a son of declaration of war out of the Curling Man. He is my pick and this race broke his maiden by five lengths in his first dirt. Start at last time out. Skipped the withers to come to this one turn race and based off this is a race. Were pay scenario in shape of the race. Best trip is going to matter is going to matter a ton because all these horses are pretty even at this point in time at least on talent there is some there is a lot of speed signed on. I'd say especially from posts six through ten. I think all but maybe Montauk traffic there are horses in tax rate. Another horse who likes to be near the lead worst offer kind of likes to come from just off the pace maybe mid pack which once again boats from my argument with him. I really liked this horse. His maiden win impressed me a lot. I even texted Jack The week of the weather's when they were thinking of maybe running him that if this horse runs in the weather's I might. I might have to go with him. If if you were to win here he would shoot right up my derby list to the top three or four even though this is a one turn race Because he has the ability to move forward. It will only be his second start. And if you wins here it would set up. Mice keeper attorneys Some other options mischievous out starting mentioned tons of speed. Will he be able to carry it a mile? The connections didn't seem so confident after the The win in the soil. So I don't really know I can be competent sixto. The seven is another horse coming. Awesome maiden win. Who really impressed as well. So he's one Montauk. Traffic is a stakes winner at aqueduct. And as I said he likes to come from off the pace and the right setup he should be coming and the ten untitled was a high force from the mark. Cassie Barn Has It kind of lived up to Kassy's expectations but this race does kind of seem fit for him? Based off of pedigree other factors so worse APAs mytalk picking the spot. I'm GONNA go Montauk. Traffic second in sticking around for third untitled does like to run a good race. Just never win it so I'll go him for so before we get out to California. We do just want to hit on one more race in the east coast degree to grade. Three Honeybee down at Oaklawn Park and I did make the comment with Eric. That this race does kind of feel the me very obviously. Unfortunately with the passing of torot she will not be running in this race. This was the the race that they had picked out for her that she would run in and probably get into the Kentucky oaks off of this race so I I. It's not a race. It doesn't have any talent in it but definitely you know. Obviously it feels like there's something missing in this race but to all an Eric introduced this race. I just want to make that point about that. You know this race does feel empty without without the presence of Toronto's so the Honeybee this year it's maybe not is lacking to star power. Obviously that were missing in Toronto's in but it's a group of horse that could easily make their way into the Kentucky Oaks Conversation. It's a tough Kentucky. Oaks this year whether or not every single top I mean we've already lost two of the prime contenders for interest in bast. But even that toneless shape who had a huge weekend In winning I think maybe her Fist v race in a row never no matter the number. She's been just lights out. Recently of the runner up from that race spices nice easily could consider herself a Kentucky IOS contender We already talked about Lake Avenue Santa Anita out in California still tons of good horses and I was the fairgrounds finite. Probably your favorite right now. so the. Oaks folks trail is still very strong. So we're these were. This group fits in. It's kind of a bunch of not rejects but horses that are yet to prove themselves on a stakes level alters awards coming off a window in her last start over portrait who was graded stakes placed behind finite and some other really good horses and Sheer Ultra award in a really big race coming from a second last way off the pace to win by just ahead in an allowance race in her last start. She's been pretty in President I he starts of her career and this Rupe as I said not a lot of you know talent on paper she might be the best of the second horse I really like is turtle tracks. She's coming off of her. Last start. I think it was the reset Tampa The the The Sun Coast Sheeran second was coming late but she wants to straits to restrict race or maiden race an allowance race last fall in a lot of people thought she might be a wonder really. Put Her name in the ring for a series oaks contender but then her last two African states just really sub par kind of fitna theme of this race. So you know looking at over whether I think only maybe. The top half of talent horses in this race could consider themselves. You know legitimate oak starters. Maybe not you know win contenders if they run well. So alters award my top choice for sure Turtle Track for second third. The class of the race in for third. You could really go with any of these. All these horses have the ability to run second or third in this race. Navy dot win it but runs second or third. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them. Hit the board. Pick them some oaks points and wouldn't be surprised to see any of them sneak into the oaks a couple months from now at fifty to one onto the Tampa Bay Derby. There's a couple of horses in this race Actually a few of them. The that are semi catchers in this. Obviously you know we talk about this show last week The possibility of chance at scratching out of the Fountain of Youth. That did happen. I know Eric's really excited for chance. It does win this recen- He gets to the Derby and then they draw pose twenty if anyone went what reporters going to ask. Saffy Joseph about the Brown connection that Saffy did make their. But there's some good worse than this one horse that is not here as independence hall. He didn't He ran second in the the Sam Davis local prep for the Tampa Bay. Derby last start out. He will move on and run the Florida. Derby pass up the Tampa Bay. Derby try to Kentucky Derby points there But as I mentioned chance it also talking about that race with independence hall on it you got the horse at one that solve Allante A really nice night. Nice winner of that race to talk race to beat a good horse like in school. And then you'll Scott Market Analysis For Todd pletcher. Johnny Velazquez had been dangerous. Tempe downs before you know what you're obviously had the record. Breaking performance got tablet Three years ago in the Everyday Derby and they've had a bunch of horses run before the Tampa Bay Derby run while another one that I just comes to mind is one. I've been thinking about recently out work on one of the one of the names from wild go but you know in addition to those forces. There's also a bunch of other horses and I'm sure Eric's going to talk about but the big story and this is you know chance it comes scratch out of the Fountain of Youth. Tecom here. Tickner shot with that and also you got solve Allante. I'll look at a bill. That win in the Sam Davis in chance. It's probably the Horse in this race as much as I don't like taking favorites you can make a case. Ten of the twelve horses nine swab forces in this race but chance it just has been the consistent wanted this group in is the most proven of this group and I think that he's based off even for factoring in case he's probably going to be the winner this race but we do know. Tampa is kind of a quirky tracking Courses. Have their off days Who knows maybe Saffy had him crank last week and now missing one race Kind of had to make something up in. Maybe he's not one hundred percent to go that that is something that happens in racing. Is we see horses ready for race. One Week Mrs tried to come back the next week. They don't do so well so I've not been nestling making my top choice here but I do think he is winner or second place candidate I really like Silva lante heading into the Tampa Bay Derby Or not the temporary. Excuse me the Sam Davis in his last are made in my pick and he ran huge in one but things tiny go his way and he is carrying chip pounds. More which might not sound like a big difference but in this in the in the Tampa Bay Derby The rules stipulate if you're stakes when you carry two pounds more than the rest so both tim chance to do. Carry that In things set up really well for Civil Onta- last time I don't know if it's GonNa be that easy for him this time. A lot of question marks around this race and at the end of the day. I'm GonNa go with a pleasure because the pleasure horses seem to just appear out of nowhere at this time and day and you mentioned market analysis and I'm GonNa go with market analysis. He is a maiden winner. One for one Broke it last time out at Gulfstream and like I said the the toddlers just seem to thrive at Tampa especially when we're when he's getting his three year olds cranked up a won by three quarters of a length over a cash rate. Who already came back and won a stakes next. One broke his maiden last time out as a good candidate for the the withers for his next start further back and Field Express Barrow. Who's been a really consistent down and goal three and a unconquered Lee switched to turf in his next start and won by six lengths of very impressive airforce one to watch out for down the road and he was able to beat this group and like. I said it's it's todd pletcher. People seem to have lost their respects form a little. I certainly am not. I think the sources prime for a huge race dot a really nice post gonna sit the trip Johnny Velazquez in this adult one of my favorite writers of all time. Maybe the greatest of all time when he calls it a career so market analysis. My top pick. I'm going to go chance at for second and Santi for there to rather talkie but I think that's kind of what the the route you have to go here With so much unproven talent here however I will mention two other horses with probably chanted hit the board let me know the aid from the in. Wilkes born has been rather consistent throughout his career Spa City the two for Kern McLaughlin. Who It's if it'd be interesting to see because we haven't touched on this CAIRN McLaughlin if you didn't hear announced today he's retiring from training to become a Louis sizes agent At the end of March. So it'd be interesting to see spot city win this race Get a guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby and then I'll have a completely different trainer and based off the owners Dolphin I mean they employ one to two trainers they. They don't employ a lot of trainers in the US and the ones they do they spread out so it'd be very interesting to see if maybe care. Mcglaughlin extended that for another month through SODA. May Have One last crack of all hypothetical of course but definitely interesting plotline Source for to make the Derby another interesting front line plotline that I wanna just quickly mention You know I don't WanNa get into all the recent politics in everything. I could not time for that today. But as eric was like Johnny Velazquez if you did not hear Johnny Velazquez his longtime agent Angel Cordero Up to put this in perspective Eric and I are believe Eric and I are the same age. Angel Cordero had been Johnny Velazquez agent since one thousand nine hundred. That was four years before both Eric and I were born. So that Those who had been a partnership for a long time and You know it was one of those things that it's like That that everyone would think you know. You never think that a partnership like that had lasted for that long would end. But you know that that's the way the business so also worth mentioning that Johnny Velazquez did partways with former agent Angel Cordero and is now going to be moving out with basically horse racing version of Scott. Boris in Ron Anderson. Just wanted to mention that as well moving out. Now we're GonNa talk about some of the racist at California before we get to the big the big three races. I do want to mention the Senate the Santa Isabel and this will feature the return of Donovan who this time will not have to run against a top horse like British idiom or a top horse. Like bast or any of them. It's all her own in this spot. This is very likely going to be where she gets her. Kentucky Oaks points and Does get into that race. No Venetian harbor for her to go against up to this point Entries are not finalized but You know this'll be big for her to get her points and not have to have a Kentucky oaks spot on the line going into Santa Anita oaks against Venetian harbour There's a couple of other good horses industries that are gonNA touch on but Very light very hard to see Donald Loach not winning this race. It's a solid group into looking at the history of race last year the race was cancelled because the sandinistas issues but before that midnight. Visi unique Bella Song Stellar with like. That's that's real on the low Jay. Her name can definitely be right up there with this group in sources behind That should come to face her. Good jettas probably the big one Broker maiden over Some well regarded horses of mainly a Baffert Philly who hurting Muni type belief and was a huge purchase at sales has yet kind of worked out to be a good runner yet but she's been running good races so jeff beatty good deals in. She definitely has talent however Donald J has been running huge racist time and time again. And I think this is going to be her breakthrough and I think she's GonNa easily at herself to that. List of a prestigious winners of this race page on is another one that right Challenger from the Simon Callaghan Barn as well But once again it's IT'S DONALD AS TO LOSE ONLY. She can be herself in the despotic unless Baffert polls something out of that just can run like no tomorrow because Donald you the real planning samples. I've mentioned the Oak Street just a little bit ago. How solid I this philly vaults yourselves to the top with a good effort on Sunday talking about another Philly in the frank. The Frankie Kilroy Mile Got Storm is GONNA look to rebound from very odd performance Shoes fourth grade. Three endeavor attempts downs. That's definitely not the horse that we've seen got stormy to be You know hopefully For for Austin recent community That that is just a one off odd performance from her because got stormy had a lot of talent last year. It was really looking to see her. Come forward and build off of that strong four-year-old campaign but there were some concerns about her coming into this year. So this will tell us a lot about got stormy whether or not. She's going to build off of that campaign that she had last year. Or whether or not she peaked last year and is on the Downturn. So a lot of questions will be used in this race. Another horse of note to mention from this From the Bob Baffert Barn keenly. I know we talk about all the time how Bob Baffert never goes on the turf. He's got a turf wars here With kingly got a chance to win this year You also have a river river born. Who won the Thunder Thunder Road Stakes A grade? Three also so some nice sources in this spot Eric Certainly GonNa touch on that and probably happy for once a Bob Baffert horses on the grass. Yeah for sure. This is about avid horse. I think definitely belongs on the grass despite that pedigree of which has tons of dirt graded stakes winner in it He's kingly is a very nice horse on his best day and one reason I think he has a big chance in this race it. There's not a lot of release fees and this is a horse. Who has maybe sprinter's speed that he can carry a very long distance. He sets pretty quick fractions for Mile Races and is able to carry it. A evident by hiccup win last summer at Del. Mar Touching on got story. I think that last rates. I'm drawing the lines for now Obviously if she doesn't perform this upcoming Saturday I know that that is definitely. I definitely regressed from last year but I have to give her credit. You're in super good at Santa Anita in her in the Breeders Cup a little while ago and I just think she has the talent and I don't think she's regressed. My pick is going to be river bowling. He's he's a favorite of mine. He always has been super consistent as ever since he came to the United States. As a as a late two year old and She just carry. That is one last time kind of just prove that he has a he still hasn't. He's coming off five six straight losses. A dating back to last year and yet his last bounceback super super incredibly winning by two and a half lengths over a pretty solid through multiple coming out of Multiple coming into this race out of that same last race. So he's going to be my pick. I think God stormy runs big but I just think because in like Santa Anita as much as he does it's going to benefit them just slightly more so river going. My pay always been a favorite of mine over got stormy over kingly for third moving onto the San Felipe in this race is obviously rightfully so going to be dominated by Bob Baffert. You know I've had the conversation with Matt many people about this just pointing this out my own time. It's kind of like the way Bob Baffert going about the Kentucky Derby this year. It's like he's playing a game of risk Trying to figure out what horses to put where get the most amount of points in what particular races. And you know we always knew that the two California stakes winners. Authentic thousand words out would be sticking around at Santa Anita and would run in the San Felipe and it's an now that they're both entered. It's very likely that these two horses both run one to At this point. I'm not sure which one does when this authentic Stephanie. The more flashy one thousand words still Very Nice Babur. So Up in the air as to which baffert horse wins this race. But the the prediction that I have for this reason and Eric talking about this agreed with me on this. Is that the fact that Bob Baffert most likely is gonNA run into in this race but Not to only focus on Bob Baffert some other horses. Obviously Breeders Cup Juvenile Winter Storm. The court didn't have the greatest performance. Last start out. The Sanford sent day. He was fourth of five horses. Excuse me four to six horses. Not The Obviously not what you wanted to see from the defending too euro champion coming up but certainly not anything that would keep him from running well in this race in a potentially get getting to the Kentucky Derby. You've also got honor. Ap Son of Honor Code. Who was a really nice made? When a lot of people really like him for John Sheriff's Mike Smith And then you also have the big the big yearling purchase Fort McHenry the three fourths relative. California crump now under new ownership new trainer. Doug O'Neill and Doug is GonNa take a big shot in this spot with Fort McHenry. Both Eric and I are very doubtful on this. But you know admire Dougie for taking a shot here and who knows maybe it will pay off but And also to mention wrecking crew. Fora Peter Miller is also in this. He was stirred Breeders Cup juvenile not in his last night but he was started. Breeders Cup juvenile fourth in the low self utility. Last start out yet. I I definitely agree. I think the bathrooms are the two best race. I can go fantastic. I give more of an edge over thousand work at this distance. They're going a little longer. A kind of flip that good authentic Hatami on a sixteen. He should be fine. I think he's the winner here Obviously thousand words. We talked about him a good amount. I think he's definitely a really good horse so I'm going to focus on a couple of others. I think there's three others in here with a chance. I'm going to throw out four mckenry in seven swag seasonal who Don't even know how he's why he's in this race. I mean I understand why is in this race. It's small small connections trying to get a big success story. It's not gonNA happen so I'm GonNa Start with on repeat. He's a maiden winner in his last start super impressively over at Del. Mar or attend Anita. Excuse me last ball. So it's a bit of a layoff which I don't think he's GonNa put his best foot forward But I think he's GonNa run good in. It'll set him up well for another star probably third or fourth storm in court. I really liked that. Getting back to two turns but once again it's just it's it's very interesting to see that he's he's in this spot in the Breeders Cup. Still Seems Fluke Seems Fluke as it happened and it was backed by that Dole effort in the San sentate coming back to two terms. I have a little bit more Respect for him but even that it's it's hard for me to see this as a horse. Second contend with the two baffles. The horse I think is the most legitimate of legitimate threat to the beverage. Despite the bit of a layoff is wrecking crew You don't run I know he said that. The breeders don't list fluky but he was consistent before is third in the Breeders Cup juvenile second in the del Mar futurity which yes another week. Race But he has the talent. He's he's been consistent. Nevertheless Lasalle futurity was just a weird race in general so I can't knock him for that but he he ran really well in the best pal is his third start in Iran wound down Murphy Charity Herein. Very well in the Breeders Cup and destroy lines that Lewis healthy turtles a weird race for him. He's been very consistent. And Peter Miller Kinda Guy who can move a horse forward off of the layoff he gives. Horses lay off for a reason. He thinks city time you giving a horse time so I think he's maybe the the biggest threat however I don't think he's going to beat him. I think it's definitely authentic one thousand words to wrecking crew is gonNA run a good. I don't think he's GonNa get blown out of the water here. I think he's only get beat. A couple of weeks set him up for Santa Anita Derby run and moving onto the libraries. We're GONNA talk about on this show. Today is Sanity Handicapped Not necessarily didn't necessarily play out how eric and I were expecting after the San Pascall Eric and I were basically handing this race to mid court With the assumption that gift box was gonna go across the ocean of Saudi Arabia. Now that did not happen in gift boxes here. He's going to try to repeat win in the Senate any cap and not you and I were a little bit too quick to hand midcourt this any handicap because as a gift boxes. Of course you know if you're already talking about how how well he's done at Sanaa Nita in the past. We Want Sanity handicapped last year very tough race for him to win very very nice win. A Mackenzie pushed him to to the limit in Santa Anita Handicap last year and You know gearbox show that he was a really classy horse in that one You've also got combatant. Who was third in that? I don't think combatant so win. Contender in the spot but He John Sheriff says tournament or Excuse Me John. Sadler has turned him around a little bit. it will be interesting to see how How mid courts can be able to do when he runs against another horse of high-calibre? Eric cannot have both said mid courts. Not a high caliber horse. But he's the type of that could definitely benefit from the the star horses being overseas. Now that give vox all. It is not overseas though it will. We'll have to see how he's GonNa Handle. That still could be a worse. It could win but I'm not not at all ready to hand him. This race The the to the degree that we were at the San Pascual. You've also got endorsed. We talked care mcglockton already. This could be a final. Like last Hurrah. Great Win for Karen McLaughlin If you're sentimental type of person rooting for this force also bill much brain out. Hockberg on he was seventh in the mineshaft. Not a great start for him but Hockberg has been a horse that looked to have something not really sure if it's there but You know he's out here. He's in the race. He's got a chance to do it. we'll see if he can yeah this horrid only further. I just want to talk about how interesting this group of forces their eight horse in the race. Horses one through six have all switched trainers at one point in their career to. I four for the first five of I. Six horses from one to six posts in order have changed ownership at some point in their career the seven and eight. Hof Offspring endorsed From Judd farms and Godolphin Belmont care. Mcglaughlin have been their whole career so they in their east coast based so just looking at one through six who are all based out west and just kinda shows you how weird this this handicap divisions in America not only but also out in the west coast Considering many of these horses have been clamours sold at horses of racing obeyed sales just a very bizarre group of horses to say the least but nevertheless a good group or I'm not gonNA deny that it's a very talented group. Definitely all had very strange careers. I'm going to focus on the east coast forces because I think they're both more talented than Maybe not more talent. I should say more talented. I think they're as talented as the two west coast hopes here gift box midcourt. We talked about gift box extensively How we think he's how we think he's legit but we thought he was going to Saudi and he did and that gives me confidence that he's going to run big. Here is the highway though and gives eleven pounds to Hawford in endorsed which to me is kind of insane. Hockberg is no slouch at all to be carrying one hundred fifteen pounds which is actually less than the two thirty five. He's been very average eighties. California stakes races seems very disrespectful. To me I think cough break. This is make or break time for him for sure You know he's coming off a big layoff in the mine shaft which is why ag- knocked y kind of have to throw that race out and he's only ran two times since the fall of two thousand eighteen but when he puts his best foot forward. He's a very good horse. He's he was second in the Florida Derby and I As three year old and gave back that up a really good reason to Kentucky Derby just an awful trip and then the Belmont. He ran a really good third before he came back into chrome to win by. Maybe maybe ten weeks so I think he's a good worst nineteenth that he's getting to an optimal distance a mile quarter probably his best distance. So I I think it's just because I like hoffer lot now have that I'm denim citing within here but I just think that this race went in. I do like that flavor of Support Flavian. Pratt rides out of his mind every time he's at Santa Anita so I'm GonNa go Hockberg on top of Midcourt I don't know facing this kind of group is because we talk. We're going to give it to them. That was before we knew gift box in Hoffer in endurance. We're going to show up in the spot. We didn't know that we were going to give it to face off the back that none of those three showed up those three showed up. I think he's the best horse in this race so I'm GonNa Cau- On top and that's fairly gift box fairly being exciting gift boxes. I mean he is the class this. This west coast handicapped did and endorsed of youngest horse in the race. The only four year old which is pretty pretty weird to save at least in a great raid one race but he came back in the grocery mouths race in rain. Huge definitely underrated based off of the factory ranch fourth in the travers to starts back against the likes of Mutual Gustavo WHO WANNA PAY. His task disarranged huge last time out in the Saudi Cup and the winner of that race code honor. Who went onto win Jockey Club Gold Cup not to mention finishing ahead of some pretty solid horses as well so on. Go Hawks on top Over the Fox over endorsed Midcourt. Listen if those three weren't showing up I would. I would definitely given give him all the praise in the world but he's just not at that level so that's about it for this episode looking ahead to the next couple weeks we got to. Arkansas is coming up next week. Obviously the rebel big grade one race. We'll talk about that. We'll talk about all the stuff that happened this weekend. A one thing. That one other notable piece of information came out. This week is the annual nominations for the hall of fame. So if you remember back from the early days of this show over on Youtube I chronicled. All the cases looked at all the cases of the fever all the horses in all the people who are up for consideration law fame. We're going to do that again. This Year Eric. Split that up. Eric's going to do the horses that I did last year. and also he's going to take a look at my. Guy Doug O'Neill goes you know as much as I could put aside buys. It's much easier to to let eric do it So so those will be coming out over. The course of the time between This week and all the way up until the May sixth one when we find out who is inducted Hopefully we'll get we'll get into that toward that points or not really gonNa just wanted to mention that. We're not get into big hall of fame stuff on this show but we'll get to that down the road as well so that's coming up. We'll see you next week on racing run out.

Kentucky Derby Arista Eric Kentucky Eric Baxter United States California Derby Bob Baffert Gulfstream Dennis Breeders Cup Derby trail Fifty Kentucky Derby Johnny Velazquez Tampa Bay Saudi Cup Tampa Saudi Arabia Dale Rome Horse Sector
TimeformUS Pacecast - Episode 57 - March 31, 2020

Daily Racing Form

52:25 min | 1 year ago

TimeformUS Pacecast - Episode 57 - March 31, 2020

"Hi everyone welcome to the March thirty first edition of time formula pace cast. I'm David Arrogant. And I'll be joined shortly by my co host criminal housekeeping. The focus of the show this week for the dirt day from last Saturday at Gulfstream Park. We'll be recapping all of the station that took place that improving the main event. Florida Derby Will really stick it. Gulf's entire week because tracks running consistently last week. We'll talk about one rates earlier in the week off but mostly off the Saturday card that we won't be disgusting. Craig March Berkeley I. It's kind of weird. That mark coming close because looking back at this month I mean it's just been a whirlwind of developments especially in the racing world of feels like an eternity ago that we got that big news in the second week of March about those federal indictments. Now really. It's just three weeks later. And there's very few very few stakes racing happening anywhere around the country. Yeah there is it was pretty much gulfstream or bust. I think there was one Arkansas bread rates at oak long last weekend in a really small state. Get fauner but nothing. We're going to talk about here. We're GONNA focus on Gulfstream and I guess from here on out we just gotTA play by year in C- WHO's GONNA run latest news. I saw there was optimism seeing Anita would open back up and they might even have their big grace's this week but we'll just have to wait and see. I think we all have our fingers crossed. I mean what I will say about this Florida. Derby Day was that it was definitely welcome to have this card and it was a fantastic car. I mean I tweeted about how long it was desperate out the for this day. got some some flag about actually printing out. Pp's in this day and age But no I mean the racist. Were stacked all day. The stakes racing was competitive And it felt almost like Breeders Cup Day. Not because they were all grade one races. But just because everybody's eyes were just so trained on Gulfstream sends. It was really the only action that was happening. There and just was pretty cool to have everybody sort of participating in giving feedback on the development of the day Let's start off by talking about the Florida Derby the main event and we'll just work our way backwards through to stakes racing. Tis The law got the job done now. Four or five in his career really aside from now one questionable ride in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He's been pretty much perfect in his career and I think he exits this first portion of the season as the definitive leader on the east coast. Oh he does. I don't think there's much doubt about that in some could even argue. He's the leader overall. I know we have the strong BAFFERT contingent out west. But he's been just as good as any of them. He he's been totally professional Iran a new top in here for for my speed figure scale one twenty one. Which is it's just really good figure as good as we've seen in any of the Derby points races in. It's just the hard to see somebody hard to see him. That being a factor in any three-year-old racy would enter now. I'm not sure what the plans are now. I know the Arkansas Derby it's been pushed back to. May second may be others will use that as a spot that go when he would show up there. And what would be almost like a a Kentucky Derby this year but it's just really hard to say but ju- Jefford from him and I thought some of the others rank good in here as well. Obviously chivalry a crazy crazy. That he shouldn't have been easy to one but crazy that he was able to run second. Eighty one Just ran a huge race. I thought at Indian ran a good race from that outside post. I saw some pictures where he had some pretty nasty cuts on his lay. It gets always hard to say how much that really affects. A horse storing running of a race. But you can safely say it didn't help that's for sure. And then we had gouverneur Morris who was able to run fourth but improved a little ran a new top for him as well. Yeah I mean as for the speed figure of the race. Correct me if I'm wrong on this but just looking at them. It looks like you had to break out the mile and an eighth to turn races from the other one turned races on the card and I can't really argue it that comparing this race to the house hope. The Times were pretty similar to pace of this Florida. Derby was obviously slower than the house. Hope and I think you could see that based on just the visual impact as they were heading around. I turn the field was pretty bunched and this was a race that pretty much held together on the front end of chivalry at Indian They were able to maintain their positions and held on for second and third whereas nobody really did any running from the back of the pack. Tis The law is the only orange past more than a couple of runners gouverneur. Morris made a mild late run to before but he was never really a factor in this race. Yeah I don't have a whole lot to add about the law. I did see Barclay tagging. The Post quotes the daily racing form. was saying that his main goal really is that for Saturday. September the Kentucky Derby so it sounds like he's more likely to give the horse a layoff now and he was talking about using Assuming that they do run them. A New York series of preparations like maybe the Dwyer and the The travers to get into the Kentucky Derby he was talking maybe having two or three starts between now and then So I think it's GonNa be interesting to see how many of these trainers managed horses To really keep them inform and get them to peek a little bit later in the year there originally intending. It is going to be interesting to follow especially I mean they just. It's gotta be impossible to plan schedule right now. You just got to point to it by year. The one thing I'd say about the flow in the race is pretty much after the top. Four of the other horses. Just there wasn't a whole adept in this field. We talked about it on the forecast. I think we'd have been surprised if if I mean we'd have been shocked if chivalry one but of the others that if the first third or fourth finisher didn't win we would have been totally shocked by that. So I'M NOT GONNA put a lot of stock in the race flow here because I just didn't think a whole out of the others. Yeah I did post the rhetorical question on twitter that a lot of people had different responses to where did Independence Hall's natural performance. Come from because obviously he did not run well in this race I had taken an optimistic view coming in kind of with some reservations though. I know we talked about it on the forecast last week. He's not a horse. You really could be sure of what we're GONNA get from him and unfortunately he took a step in the wrong direction. Just one of these horses. That ran an exceptionally fast feet. That you as a two year old and it's kind of a mystery as to why he hasn't been able to carry it forward into his three year old season. Yeah you know I totally forgot. He was in here. He ran so poorly. He witnessed shocked me if he won. Based on that race we saw earlier in his career but it was really high on a year. But yeah that's just how poorly ran. That didn't even think the discussing is one of the also rans but he certainly didn't run well at all As for the speed figure you mentioned I did treat that to nine furlong races differently than the eight and a half furlong race. It's one of those. Usually I would rate them together given the close proximity but I have questions about the times of that mile and a sixteenth routes especially the final time. It's really hard to time from video given the angles. A used with that alternate finish line where the race starts. But I had enough questions that I wasn't going to treat it the same ahead I it would lowered this race. It would've lowered the house. Hope and it would give the oaks figure. I just wasn't comfortable giving particularly with Pace that we'll talk about when we get to that one. Yeah let's actually help right into the Gulfstream Park Oaks and stick with the Dir- raises for now and just wrap up these three roles. Swiss skydiver won this race on the Front End Which? I don't think I mean maybe you could have made a case for her winning the race. I don't think anybody for saw her going to the lead leading this field from gate to wire She is a horse race as a closer in all of her races. Up until this point but Pokka Lopez was honored this day. He was aggressive in a race. Where a lot of other writers just chose to not ride for position coming out of the gate and that can be really detrimental and these Milena sixteenth races at Gulfstream. Or you had right into the first turn and they. Swiss skydivers has never looked back. Yeah this was a race. That was just really puzzling. When you look at the ride Sacha God. There were a lot. There was a lot of this on Saturday. Given the big fields allowed a rides that had just shaking your head but basically half the field and this when I think which. It's just mind boggling that nobody wanted to show when he speed this. I was kind of inspiration. I posted on twitter. How often speed runs? Uh Speed wins at all the different distances and surfaces in it just really is crazy how these guys yank courses back off the pace and I think the main one. We have to talk about his lake. Avenue with Joel Rosario I just have no idea what he was doing here in the states. We we don't know what kind of directions were given from the trainer. But it's Kinda hard to imagine Bill Mount With Bill. Motte would say the Yankees source back off the pace. I think you could argue. She was probably the best horse in the race given the pace that she got but in the end it's just a race that I'm putting a line through. The pace was really slow. They weren't able to finish all that strongly. So just just not a good race at all for me in a bit of an eyesore really. Yeah I mean the one thing I'll say about Swiss skydiver. Is that if you've watched a lot of her prior races even though she's been written as a closer and his run from behind she's a horse was always really keen in her racism even when they get her to settle in behind horses. She just raises like she wants to do more. She fights the rider a little bit and Paka Lopez. Who was credit? This philly broke well and he didn't grab her. I mean he didn't try to say well. Okay this is a feeling that rib in Britain from the back of the past married to doing that again. He just played the break. And you wish that more riders would do that Obviously drivers are lake. Avenue didn't have the same plan You a big fan of drivers. Reo I think that he he is a ride. Who TAKES A lot of chances? It works out for a lot more than it does for a lot of other writers who take similar chances But he does at times over think things a little bit too much I would say and this is situation where I think that happened There was plenty of speed on paper. But you still have to play the break in these races and Lake Avenue. She did break. Maybe a half step slowly. I think Swiss skydiver had maybe a half length position. Honor coming past the wire for the first time but still he made no attempt to move forward he actually grabbed her and took her back to get her way back to fifth place early It's just not the kind of ride you're supposed to be giving horse especially one of these to turn. Milena sixteen races at Gulfstream or getting forward position is almost always advantage. Yeah it sure is and I do. WanNa get your opinion As I said. I'm drawing a line through this race but I was really perplexed by the terrible for performances by spices. Nice Antonio its shape the think that was pacer or do you think there was more to that because they just never looked like contenders at any point. Yeah I mean detract Gulfstream on Saturday the main track I wouldn't say that it was biased in the sense that it was favouring rail or the outside that any particular running style had a huge advantage. But I will say we didn't see a ton of running from the back of the pack and horses that were making big runs did seem to flat out a little bit. I would say What will you did see a pays collapsed in the house. Hope that was kind of the outlier of the dirt races that we saw on Saturday and spices. Nice in particular was just completely out of position for the entire race. I mean she's never the quickest horse out of the gate. I place but she was just losing position into the I heard. And she was like a second to last down the backstretch. She was just never going to win from that position especially considering the pace of this race total shape. She did really regrets here. She was wide the entire way Ground loss alone doesn't account for how poorly she ran But I think it is worth noting that those three horses that were coming out of the Devonian Dale Spices. Nice tongue shape even dream Marie They finished right together again but they finished fifth sixth and seventh. So it does make you question the quality of that devoted Dell a little bit. Yeah the one thing I would say is looking at our page figures which are all coded in blue of course for this race. Switz- skydiver head after six furlongs in the race said just the ninety pace figure and she finished with a one. Oh six final time figure so it was basically impossible for anybody to make up ground through the the latter part of this roots. Yeah they don't want to harp on it too much but this is the kind of race where. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Lake Avenue probably should have won this race. If she had gotten the aggressive ride that she really deserved. Because she's a horse who had we know is effective on the lead and I think she did run a really nice race to almost get up for second. All things considered since nobody was doing any passing late. But that's just the way the cookie crumbles. Sometimes let's move onto the turf stakes Gulfstream Park. And we'll start with the longest them they mile and a half Panamerican which went has raised twelve on Saturday and The theme of these turf is shredders. Sending out horses that finished one two and complete the attire exact on that was the case here. Although it was the other Mike Maker Horse who got the job done demos boy really tale of two different trips here is damage boy. Saved all the ground and Zubov Alpha just took the overland route. Yeah there were definitely submits your same trips in this race as well when it just said. Bama's boy not to take anything away from him. He took full advantage in. He's in just top form right now. he had commented that reset. Houston in. He's a horse. I remember back at Saratoga was actually there last year. When he won I think it was an optional. Claimer by just a whole Bunch Lance I think you won by six lengths which is just a huge amount on turf but he really seems to have found new life since he stretched out to a mile and a half which isn't a big surprise for might make her. I think it is a surprise that he'd be stablemates zoo. Alpha would come in red hot but that horses was kind of a last second audible for the horse to be in this race given the state of racing these days and as you said it probably was a trip that I think if Tyler Death Leone had to do over again he might think I saw Andy Serwer tweeted on twitter and I basically agree with the word he used. The net was panicked. Yeah I mean I watched the race. I was inclined to be critical of Tyler. Leone for making that early. Move what I went back and watched it again. I think I I wouldn't be so hard on him because it was a race. That was just had no speed especially after channel. Cat didn't break well. I mean the only horse that could have gone to the lead was him seemed unwilling the League before. So you had a horse like Spooky Channel Upfront early. Who is not really a front running type and just seemed like the kind of race where you wouldn't WanNa get cau- behind horses like channel ultimately ended up getting in the stretch. He was never really in the clear So I don't blame tyler. Gaffer Leone for Riding Zulu Alpa like he was the best horse And making early backstretch move like that. While IT IS UNORTHODOX I tend to like riders being a little more aggressive those situations than just waiting waiting waiting again. A little getting a little too cute on an odds on favourite and make networks have to be so much the best in the stretch to win the race up because you'll alto really was in position to win at the end and he barely got by current at the end of the race courage not a horse. Who Excelled going this arm the past not a horse. Run this kind of speed or So I do think Zillow Alpha regressed a little bit. I mean he's a horse who had been indecent four last year but he wasn't really a standout in this division and the real question so far in twenty twenty was is he just a horse improve so much the Dow he's at the top of the division or is he a horse that just got very fortunate trips in his last two races. Personally that question wasn't settled for me and I think the same for you. That's channel a little bit in this race and it just showed that when everything doesn't go perfectly for Zillow Alpha. Maybe he still is the same old Zulu Alpha. Yeah and you mentioned channel Cat If you're tripping be capper you can write a novel on what he went through. Some of it was his own doing at the break Kinda put himself in a bad spot where he had the we through traffic with the pace. Not being all that. Hoti was able to get through. A current was interesting horse for me. He was one of those three year olds last year from from crop. That didn't run all that well but they seem to be stepping up this year's expect they get older and he wants a big price in here but I thought he ran very well. Given the circumstances in could be one to watch going forward. Yeah I mean and Emma's boy you mentioned radical Saratoga last summer. I think I actually picked it was opening day at Saratoga when he finished third and like a forty thousand dollar claiming race it was his first start off that claim for maker and Mike Maker claimed his horse off just a bunch of dirt races and obviously claimed him with the intention to put him on the turf. Probably thinking it'd be a claiming type of course But nobody is better than Mike Maker at sort of selecting the horses in his barn that he thinks are going to be best these turf marathon distances. I mean they've just been so many horses over the years that he's just progressively over time gotten better has drained relaxed these longer races and really finish It doesn't happen instantaneously not suggesting anything nefarious like he just is working miracles. It happens over time. And he's able to turn these horses into ones. That WANNA go longer. And I think it's a pattern that more trainers could follow if they focus more on these marathon races but he really has the formula down. Yeah I mean it's sources when a mile and a half now three times I guess it is in has two wins in a close second so as you said he does this time and time again and kind of shame on betters for the Horse Getaway at nine the one right after that pan-american they ran the grade. Three appleton going a mile on the turf and this was the one where the pace really did come apart late Social Paranoia was able to come from all the way at the back of the pack through Rue. Had Him in last even coming to the top of the stretch. He ran by the mall. Though with the really eye-catching late Ryan this race. The pasted help though because even though it didn't seem like there was that much speed on paper. Some horses got pretty rankled around the clubhouse. Turn they really pressure Doctor Edgar on the front end and it set it up for late runner. I know we both like Edgar in. He did make the leaders wiz expected but unfortunately for me as a better at didn't last long as a L. Tormenta was written up by Jillian late Peru and just really forced the pace and it got pretty crazy upfront all our fractions for the racer coated in red and the rich. This really fell apart. Lead Social Paranoia. He's another those three-year-olds last year. Who had run these races? The aim was certainly a good horse but had had really popped the good figure and he stepped up in one. This when not to be honest. Didn't run a huge speed figure in this when either you only got a one seventeen though the runner up some by a better figure for being close to the pace. Him and frost. I'm forgetting his name. The horse who I bet a doctor. would factor actor I. Just yeah just. They actually got as good a figures as the winner because the racist fell apart and they were the survivors but social includes our social inclusion man. I'm struggle in social. Paranoia will be a horse that he's won the watch because this was definitely kind of a new running style from him. Me Never come back successfully from from that far back he had shown a tendency to be more up-close in his races so maybe that changes style will fit him a bit more social inclusion rather than social paranoia at this point in time but he was inappropriate winner. Saturday given the circumstances that we're in. He's a horse that I had talked about on the forecast last week is potentially liking this turn back in distance because they had tried to make him go longer and I think the Belmont Derby last. You're going a mile and a quarter. I think they even ran a mile and five sixteenths and a stakes race at Kentucky downs. A He's a horse who have been successful sprinting early in his career and he was able to use that speed that he has in the late stages of this race. Just run by them all in the stretch so I wonder if he's ultimately going to be horse that really does turn out to be a miles echelon and again. This is the race for todd. Pletcher just dominated had the two horses that filled out the exact Some Bay and social paranoia turned out to be real complements to each other because Sunday was pressing the pace and it was really the horse. The did the best of those that were up. Close early and social paranoia came from so far back like you said not the highest speed figure but I thought that the winter did well and given the given that it was his first race. Back off the bench He's one that I'd be somewhat excited about moving forward. Let's move on to the house. Hope which is one of the dirt races early in the day that was running at the same distance as the Florida. Derby a mile and an eighth as we said. We discussed the Florida Derby of this house. Hope featured a different kind of pay scenario. We saw in the last race of the day. They went pretty quickly. A rare form has just hustled out of that that far outside gate to make the lead over Bodey Express these two ran off on the front end body expressed. Put that horse away. The really threw it down through that third quarter of a mile a keeping up that pace and both expressed just paid the price late and it was identifier who I have no idea how you can come up with this horse but congrats to those. Who had him at sixty one? Yeah there was no way I was coming up with that horse. I can tell you that We had a predicted as a race likely to have a fast PACE I. I don't think there's any doubt that it did all our fractions. Impeach figures or coated in red at every single call and this is just what happened sometime when a race falls apart. The horses were back off the pace although the top two were just both well back off the pace kind of fell into the best trips They didn't get great speed figures. One seventeen for both at the top to where Bodey express as the only or she was anywhere remotely near the pace to finish in. I think even the top seven or eight year got a one twenty two So I actually think he was the best horse in the race. He didn't make the lead he fought to get it open DOPP. It just couldn't hold off those long shots but I think this was actually the best receives running wild despite finishing third due to a couple of big all chats. Got No argument with that I thought Bodey expressed really did run the best race. I'm not even sure that. Bodey expressed wants to go this. I think he's maybe a little bit better going shorter distances But he did run really well to put away that name speed. Who really finished nowhere. I think rare form finished last in this race actually and he owed expresses only lost by length and a half almost got the job done. Yeah identifier where? The performance came from just whistle. Ramboll to be second here. The real story of this race though was even though it featured such a fast pace so many of the more logical closers just couldn't make up any ground on the back of the pack. I know you like target. Wal Banger. I like Sarangani. You would have thought these horses would have gotten great pace that ups and been threats laid up but they just didn't know running and it was one of these days Gulfstream where certain horses couldn't muster up rallies in these races and it doesn't doesn't make a whole lot of sense on your looking back and I got a wonderful handicapping perspective. How you handle situations like this moving forward because I on paper. These horses read very poorly. But maybe that was just the way the track was playing on Saturday. It's a really bizarre result. I it just said the race did fall apart but the logical closer assistant do any running just looking at the chart now that the three other horses who were in the top four early finished in the last three positions just to highlight how well Bodey Express state run but other net sometimes. Just turn to page. Because I I don't know what else how else to explain this one. Go back to the turf and talk about some of the phillies and mayors and the grade three orchid which was raised ten at Gulfstream. On Saturday this was a great three event. Going a mile and three eighths and this was a situation where I think it was a race that just probably in retrospect wasn't worth overcomplicating. The two best horses coming in were pretty clearly mean Mary gentle ruler and they were just better than these horses. It was probably a little bit silly. That mean Mary was even money and gentle. Roller was five to one. I think a lot of people pointed out had to do with the fact that Chris Landeros was on that Oh for skid Did finally end this past weekend on Sunday But these two horses. They're pretty nice delays at this level. Yeah they are. We talked about this one on the forecast me. Mary look like she was going to have clearly. She got the clearly to 'em once that happened. The race was pretty much over. I thought General Roller ran fine coming off the layoffs. He got a one sixteen speed figure compared to a one eighteen for the winner. She's capable of a little better but like I said coming off the bench probably not fool way ready to give her best effort especially chasing a loose on the lead horse I will say mean Mary. Though she's won the last two without a lot of pressure she does said an honest piece. It's not what she's going out there in setting fifty one fractions or anything like that She's moving pretty well so cheese earning them until she faces or sue challenges early. She's going to be really tough to beat it. These extended distances. Yeah I was GONNA say something. Similar my opinion of me. Mary actually really rose out of this race whereas I was a little bit. Skeptical if we're coming out of law PRIANTE because that just wasn't a very competitive race and the pace of that race was just exceptionally slow. This wasn't more honest pace. I wouldn't say it was a fast paced by any means But she was going fractions that warrant. I mean she wasn't walking up front. Let's say and Gentle ruler really did have every chance in the stretch to make a late writer and Mary just turned her away Resting that Graham Ocean has stripped her out distance early in her career. Typically you see horses start to tackle these longer. Marathon races once they get. Maybe a ten twelve starts under their belts But he's really targeted mean Mary towards these longer races basically from the start and she's done nothing wrong on the turf she's now four for five on this surface. Her only poor effort came on the dirt in her first career race. So she's a pretty. Exciting prospect is a four year old now moving onto the rest of the year in twenty twenty she is. It's hard to say where it's GonNa go as we keep talking about giving the calendar. But she's a fun horse because I liked courses to just go to the lead and take it to him and say catch me if he can and she certainly one of those will stay on the turf in the Cutler Bay which took place early in the day. One of two races for three year olds on the grass on Saturday at Gulfstream and this one featured a favorite winning no surprise decorated invader was able to avenge a frustrating loss in the Breeders Cup juvenile turf. Last year. I think a lot of people thought that maybe he should have been the winner that day. Just got a nightmare trip. Getting shuffled bag wide without cover. The entire way in really congested field Things worked out much better for him in this Cutler Bay because they were really moving on the front end drawers just took decorated invader to the back of the pack and didn't get cute on him just took him wide coming off the far turn but it didn't matter because he had all meant him to run this field down yet he was. He was Why won't say much the best but he was certainly the he got the right set up and took full advantage. He got a one time for. Us speed figure on this. We had this race a bit lower. As you know this is It was run at the same exact conditions as a race. We're going to talk about later. The Sand Springs and they were very close on time but using the projection methods that I use what based on the other races. It just didn't look reasonable to to assign those rates. It's very similar speed figures. But the more I went back in dug through there really was no reason to break this race out. So that's where the one a week came from. I think originally headed as low as a one zero three But I thought all the top four in here ran. Well I thought South Bend. It is shown he's really is a tur- force US since moving there. He seems to be getting better and better and he ran a winning race for the most part if decorating invader wasn't in here and I was particularly impressed with get smoking as well. He's another who survived the Pasto Open. The lead wasn't able to hold off the top two. But when you look at how the other piece horses in here finish. He did very well so again. I thought this was a strong rates for three-year-olds in just march. Yeah I feel the same way I think this might be a decent field overall because decorated invader while he hadn't run a particularly high speed as a two year old. I mean as I said he was impressive at Saratoga. And he got that terrible trip in the Breeders Cup So he's one that did have the potential to do better and I agree about get smoke and the I think he's the horse. You really want to highlight out of this race because the pace was exceptionally fast. I made the horse that was dealing with smoking and actually ran into the lead into Miami. I mean he faded Divis- last in this race. I know he was a huge price. I mean he was done effort at five furlongs and get. Smoking really continued on gamely rebrand at the top of the stretch tried to hold off those closers who had built up so much momentum He's a horse. Who's just been Italy improving all winter for Tom? Bush has shown the versatility to handle faster and slower paces. So he's one that I'd be interested in moving forward a decorated invader I agree. He's the best coming out of this race and he's one little. I'll be interested to see especially how he does stretching out distance because a lot of the major races in this world turf division. Do come going farther these days a mile and a quarter of three sixteens So we'll see if added. Ground is in his wheelhouse move onto the phillies version of this race. The Santa Bell Island which was run a bit later. This didn't come up quite as fast but I still think. We saw solid performance from the winner of this race. Highland Glory One that just didn't get a trip that would you'd expect a worse winter circle. She really was wide the entire way without cover but she just kept finding a stretch and was able to just now the runner up on the wire. Yeah that was some late surge. He had I actually didn't think she was going to get there. And then all the sudden in that last twenty yard she put on bursted the just get her nose on the wire in. I was impressed with that. The figure probably doesn't reflect how good the race was a Meiping itchy. She only got ninety nine time form. Usb figure but when you consider how why she was and how she just made that long sustained run. I was actually pretty impressed with this and I think she's a better horse than what that ninety nine would indicate. Yeah this is one of those. I think you really do have to take ground loss into account because not only what she. Why just on the far turn? She was wide on the clubhouse turn to she didn't have cover and that's a really difficult situation for. Young Horse To just keep running all the way out in the middle of the racetrack like that and then find more in the stretch. I looked at the track is figures Gordon too. That she covered fifty five more feet than schirrmeister. Who RODE THE RAIL THE ENTIRE WAY? Setting the pace in highland glory just came and got her in the stretch shot. She is a full sister to highland sky. Who was a good horse for these connections? A number of years ago a horse that never really fulfilled expectations. I think he only ended. Up HIS CAREER WITH MEDIA COUPLE OF STAKES WINS. Do his name after seeing like you might do better than that when he was a three year old But that pedigree does suggest that highland glory is going to be just fine going farther distances. That racist like the mile and a quarter domino's later in the year assuming they continue to run this triple turf triple series in New York So she's really that even though she didn't run that fast in this race is one that I think we might see better from the future. Yeah just WanNa make one note about this since we are talking about ground. Lots something in the slower times me and my assistant Figure maker GONNA do. It's really explore using ground loss in these TURF RACES. In addition the pace. I'm not sure where it's GONNA lead. It's but but I do think we can improve upon what we have and we're going to start with turf because I I think round losses just more important than turf races and also because it's manageable. There's obviously a turf. Races run in this country than there are dirt racist. So it's something the two of us can probably handle. That's really interesting. It's the guy look forward to. When I totally agree. That turf is the place to start with that because we discussed so many times on this. Podcast remember reassessing trips. That saving ground is of the utmost importance especially on the turns and raising out in the center of the racetrack like highland glory. Did you really do want to elevate those performances and if that could be reflected at the speed Baker. I think a lot of people would appreciate that. Move back to the dirt and discuss these. Sir Shackleton which featured the return of a coma. Hoarser would show in a lot of promise early in his three year old season. Back in twenty nineteen He was the winner of the bluegrass before. Not Running so well in the Kentucky Derby This was his first start since his first start getting back to a one turn race since early in his career and mccomb is the kind of horse that based on this performance. I'm not going to be surprised if you ultimately turns out to be really more. Seven belong to a mile runner. Yeah this was a really good effort. this is a race. David emailed me about because victim only got a one thirteen time for. Us speed figure in. That's all a one eighteen time for a final time figure and personally I agree with them. It's it's a little silly that were downgrading in this spot because he's a horse that actually caused the downgrade because he finished so well where the other horses didn't really get any kind of of knock and this is another thing that's on our to do this store in the slower times. I'm really looking at these slow pace street. Penalties will give forces because frankly sometimes we just go overboard and this is one of these spots. We're GONNA talk about another one a little later but it was a good point brought up by David. I don't have a whole add about the race. I thought it was a really good effort from him. I I do think he's GonNa Excel at a mile one turn mile seven furlong races i. It wouldn't surprise me if he's a mile and a sixteenth force but since most of the bigger races in this country on dirt or run at a mile and an eighth. If you're talking to route I'd really like to see him him. Stick the one turn and see. Just how good he is. There's not a whole lot to say about the others. I don't think any ran particularly the notably good performances but I was impressed with the coma. Yeah I mean right to know that it wasn't a strong field and I don't WanNa get too much credit for beating on But George Weaver. As we discussed last week doesn't have great numbers off layoffs. I wouldn't be surprised if a coma probably needed this race. A little bit even coming to the top of the stretch you could see was just showing some signs of Ross wasn't really in the bridal at the quarter Paul but he just got home on class and really finished up strongly like the kind of horse like the kind of finish that you expect from a horse that had want great to as a three year old So I'd be interested to see if you can take a step forward from this. He still has that really. Wacky action is front legs or going in every direction but doesn't seem to hinder him didn't last year and not so now so I hope that they can keep this horse racetrack. Because he's one. That could have an interesting year. Let's go back to the turf and discuss the standard springs for the fillies and Mares. This one going the mile distance the same as that appleton. We talked about earlier for the colts and geldings this one. Another one of these turf races. Where one trainer sent out the two top finishers and Loss ignoring the other. Brendon Walsh. Worst got the job done over so fell This was yet another race where I think it was a tale of two different trips. That might have made the difference. Yeah it probably was. I do want to note though. This was the same races social paranoia. It's win it was run on a different setting. It was actually run on the same one as the Cutler Bay. I bring that up because I saw some questions about the speed figures and people were comparing the times of the races and wondering how social paranoia could get such a a higher figure and I just WanNa say at Gulfstream. It really isn't wise to compare horse races run. On Different Rail settings is a race where ridgely I headed a little bit higher. But when I compared it to that Cutler Bay they're virtually identical one time the run-up sore exactly the same. I timed them from video just to be sure and the way it came back for me is. It just wasn't a particularly strong race. I she got a one week for the win. Zone fell regressed a little bit to get one. Oh seven but if you watched her trip I really think that's a surprise. Wouldn't expect that she of runner best number in the air given the trip that she had and Valedictorian basically ram what she's been running. We talked about her on the forecast. We we both thought she's not really the same horse she was last year. And I think we saw that in this spot where she had. An easy name was run down by a couple of horses that the frankly didn't run all that great. They just ran better than the rest in here. Yeah I mean Valedictorian. Probably did take a bit more pace pressure than it. Even looked like she would on paper because three of the key speeds did scratch out of this race and it is worth noting that newspaper of record was going to be the big favourite. She did not participate so that just made this a week race overall and perhaps that's an explanation for why it's not so surprising that it got a lower speed gear and I agree Valedictorian. Just doesn't seem like what the same horse. She probably still should've gotten the job done if she were Valedictorian. From last year that was running speakers approaching one twenty in almost every race Las Ignoring. She's okay I don't think she is anything particularly special in graded stakes races. This division But when she gets to go these shorter distances and when she gets the right kind of ride she can be dangerous us. She has a horse that tends to get a little bit rank and Jerez especially when they center longer distances. So I think this slightly faster pace going shorter Flat Mile Really did work to her advantage. Because Tyler Gaffes Leone was able to get her to settle down early and she produced that late. Kick also help that. She was able to get outside run and really build up a lot of momentum coming into the quarter. Paul whereas fell withdraws. Reo aboard He was waiting inside for probably touch too long. When you take chances like that and tried to get through on the inside sometimes just at the mercy of the Horse's head of the when they decide to vacate that rail position and the Horse on the Liege shifted out a bit too late for so fell to pick up at them to get to her stablemate But I thought both of these works reasonably well. Yeah I'd agree and it's interesting to note Tyler Gaffney. Liam rode this horse and kind and not quite as a dramatic but it was almost the same move that he used on Wylfa where he chose to just make the wide sweeping move even if he moved just a tad bit early than than you would like an beat the horses who got bogged down inside. So you know it's interesting these trips. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. Sometimes jocks are just a no win situations that wraps up the stakes racing at Gulfstream Park from last Saturday. But let's also discuss a couple of the allowance races that took place earlier in the day? A one of those was a Turk stakes turf allowance race in the third on the card. That was won by the heavy favourite large for todd pletcher This is a horse. Seems like he's had a following since he debuted so impressively Gulfstream Park last year as a three year old. He's a four year old. Now was down to be the four to five favorite in this race and didn't exactly win like you'd WanNa fortify shot to do so. He never looked like he had the victory so nup he actually had a horse outside the middle of the head of him down. The backstretch was able to come through inside the quarter pole. Thou hold off the closers but I thought some others also route wellness raise. Yeah I thought this was a really strong allowance. Retired actually got a better speed. Figure than the APPLETON data a one nineteen for l'argent. He's lately race four year old. And what impressed me here is He got a trip that I usually don't like at all when they're down inside doing for the lead but don't have your hidden run of auto horses. Don't take kindly to that. But he handled it. Well when turning for who must stakes winner temple another might make your horse. We've talked about on this show before. Made what look like. It was going to be a good winning run at him and he just dug in game. Weigh-in held off so I was impressed by by both the top two in even the top. Three D Shipper for Chad Brown first time in North America. I won't pretend to know how to pronounce his name. I'll leave that to smarter guy like David but I thought he ran Woah in his debut here in North America so pretty strong re-sign. This was definitely not your typical allowance contest for my eyes. Yeah I thought it was a strong race as well. I'm not quite as willing to give large and extra credit is you are because while he did have that uncomfortable inside position. Down the backstretch I still thought this was a race that featured a pretty moderate pace and it was one where I thought horses trying to make wider runs from the back of the pack. A slight disadvantage. So if there's one horse that I would want to upgrade in this race it would be replaced That you mentioned Let's go with Tribhuvan. this was his first start in this country for Chad Brown. He's also had raced believe in France last year. Even run and I think the Swedish Derby So an unusual career so far this horse but seems like he's one that could have some potential or Chad Brown in perhaps going longer distances missing the future And he just was funded extremely wide coming off the darker and I thought really did well to get up for given that groundwater is a temple like you said he's just rock-solid Joe's up every time he's going to be tough in any kind of listed stakes race that they run but a solid race and large to me seems like a horse that has been very short prices in all of his races. He's run well up into this point but I wonder if he's going to be a short price against stakes company next time especially if it's a more competitive pay situation if he's one that I'd be a little bit wary of maybe getting over bet also mentioned just these Gulfstream turf courses certainly favors speed more than we're gonNA see while more than we would normally see when these horses shipped to Belmont King Landon and other places not sure how much of that we're GonNa get to see this year so even if you think the pace was solid we just have at average in a race like this but even if you think it solid the horses still seem to have a little more finish up on the front end and then they do it other voices other allowance race from Saturday as we wrap up that card was the fifth a one mile optional. Claiming event generated a bit of an upset as the number seven. Winds of change led the way this is a race where the pace projector was predicting a fast pace but if you look through all the runners in the race he was one of those situations where it was a fast pace. Even though there weren't any confirmed front runners in the race and I think Edwards is just took advantage of that situation with wind of Che and she was wearing blinkers for the first time he was just pretty keyed up down the backstretch and he took no prisoners. He just let them run off on the front end and nobody could catch him in the lane. Yeah I actually thought this was a really strong race. It was a big upset in terms. Odds is a winner was nineteen the one but he certainly looked on paper like he could win this race. It was just a second start since coming here from Brazil He was awarded and it was a strong effort. He got that one fifteen time for them. Us and he didn't do it easily. Ya the two horses at challenged Murli. Were actually pretty much worse as people consider contenders in here in intrepid hard. I think was one of them and I forget the other two but I know the two closest to were horses. That were actually bet. Any got challenged late by the favourite network effect and he was able to fight them all often. Hold on so I thought it was a really game. Effort blinkers did the trick and I really liked how they used a speed near. They just is Edgar. Says as you said just took him right to the front plate catch me. If he can end nobody could yeah. I mean I don't WanNa read board but I I kind of agree with you that nineteen to one with a little bit crazy on this horse when you consider that his first recent this country was actually really solid. I mean he finished third in that stakes. Tampa behind killybegs captain. Who let's be honest? He's turned into a really solid graded stakes level. Sprinter who I know. They were pointing the Golden Shot. He didn't do by. I think Obviously they'll be rerouting him to stateside races at this point He hated me was second in that race. Oh wouldn't have changed and beaten by some really good horses in his debut and Based on his races in Brazil for instance was not supposed to be a problem So I don't think it's a big shock that he improved a bit race and I agree he just ran them off their feet network effect chewing gum. They ran find to be second and third but they're two horses that don't have a ton of speed and I think that just put put them at a slight disadvantage here. Alma Shriek was the other horse who I had forgotten that. Challenge them at the half mile call Polish. He didn't get all that close but he tried to make a move up in just moving into that. Who pays cost him? He was actually seventy two in the recent. He wound up finishing a distant last. We will wrap up this podcast with one more race from Gulfstream. Though was one that did not take place on that Saturday card. We'll move two days earlier to Thursday's program the ninth race. It was a six furlong allowance. Race won by Todd. Pletcher trained assault DOTTO This was a horse that was making his second start off a layoff he had one pretty impressively in his first start. Back in February had to work a lot harder for this victory inishmore. Bryce don't think this was the kind of tripped at Luby's size drew up on paper. No I'm sure it wasn't. He's been a horse who has done most of his better running up on the lead. He was another one coming out of a race where we really penalized it. He had a final time of one thirteen on a figure of ass time but only a one hundred over. Also this is another impetus to review how we do those rates but it was a pretty good run. He was a horse who showed some promise last year he won. I doubt he then had trouble. In the stake Gulfstream he he shipped on ran in an allowance race but ran up against the really tough warriors charge. Exit went off favored that they over warriors charge if member serves if not to If not they were very close in the bedding maybe co favorites but just the good effort and maybe this is one that just wants a sprint. Because he shoney's versatile and he's actually not WASCO in six for one sees now three for three. He got a one thirteen time form. Usb figure for this effort what's matched his final time effort from last time. So you know. Promising lightly reese four year old that earlier in the week about the coma but really more so with this race in mind because we gave salt auto at one thirteen final time figure for his return race back in February and that got knocked down thirteen points to the one hundred time formula. Speed figure to something that you want. Look at it as well because Both Salgado and traveling minus the first two finishers in that February race both came back to run really well this weekend. At Gulfstream really running back and basically repeating author final time figures from the prior at race. And I think this is something that we we've been starting to see a lot where there's just not a whole lot of aggression and a lot of these dirt sprints and horses. Sometimes they're able to finish pretty quickly especially on these upper level races We've seen it a number of times at Gulfstream this winter even thinking about that return race for hidden. Scroll where he didn't run that fast in the early going but really finished up wealth the land. I know that's a thing that we knocked down quite a bit of the same thing that Franks rocket race when she won. I WanNa say like the old hat going six furlongs at really fast final time of but again. It's the choice. Reid knocked down the speed figure a lot because she finished so fast. And the thing about it is with a horse. Like Soul Donohoe Maybe wouldn't be the case. So much hidden scroll but I think with a lot of these courses that are able to finish up fast after setting the pace on these races. Thr- able to adapt the running styles and come from off. The pace like dotto did in his next start So I think you don't want to be too Negative on these words is because it's not saying that they need the lead to when they have to run faster to get the lead. They'RE GOING TO BE SUCCESSFUL. Because sometimes these horses can change up the running styles and run a similar speed figure. Just doing it. Come from off the pace. And it's a good point you make. I think about the riders. They're just not as aggressive as it used to be. There was a time when we actually came up with algorithms we data and we tested them that this was the way to go but this just points out. The game has changed in in. You have to review things in. That's what we're in the process of doing now because I don't think many people would doubt especially on the bigger circuits that the running styles of riders have changed for whatever reason are not as aggressive. You don't see as many hot aces so OUGHTA TIME SO NEAT sources fall win. The reads in slow fractions. It's almost by default really Drew Front runners and we saw that with Salgado. He didn't was nowhere near the lead. This time he was able to adapt his running style and still get the same kind of final time figure. Yeah I think it's really interesting and I am one of the positives about having a schedule. It's a little busy these days. You get the look at stuff like that and really take a second glance because sometimes during the racing calendar every year it seems like there is no real lull and no real break to work on stuff like this so maybe we'll have some time to think about things like do some work and make some improvements in the coming weeks and months Craig. So that's offer this week's podcast. We'll see what happens. This Friday won't be but normally do the time form forecast as you said Santa. Anita's not quite certain to run at this point. I think they're still not scheduled at the moment We'll see if that changes between now and Friday. Obviously if there is stakes racing to discuss will discuss it on the time. Formulas forecast We'll see if you WANNA use that time for something else if there's not racing but will obviously post that on social media this week if there are any developments on that front. I know though both Both of US still posting on social media regardless. If there's racing or not just you know engage with the fans during this time to keep everybody busy and thinking about some other stuff. There's always stuff to talk about. I just did a thing where I posted who I thought were the best horses to ever win. A breeders copies for everyone something. I would never do ever but just bored out of my mind at times here can only play so much gallop. Racer the fingers start to get tired. So I'm sure we'll find funny things to talk about at. I know our friend Dandy Sir Wings. Posting a lot of polls he puts up some replace some really fun stuff so there is still stuff to keep you occupied and keep your mind on racing When you know frankly there's not a lot of other fun stuff to think about kind of a nice diversion from the real world at times. Yeah as I mentioned to you before we started. I'm quarantining at my dad's place right now. I'm not sick. I'm just staying away because I came out of the city. I don't want anybody around me just in case but he's got a ton of every memorabilia at his house and I've been going through some of that recently and what blinds Mr interesting things. I'll post on twitter over the next couple of days because it's interesting for me just to look back at some of racing history and it helps you learn a little bit because there are some great or assistant great range from the past that. I'm just not familiar with and it's fun to go back and look into the history of all those so I'll I'll be posting those for the rest of this weekend. Moving forward as long as there's not a racing on the calendar Craig Funds. Talk about this Last Saturday Cardi Gulfstream. With you this week As always you can listen to the to the time formulas pace cast and the time from. Us forecast on Dear F. DOT COM spotify. I tunes Youtube and soundcloud richer. Podcast just make sure to subscribe to the daily Racing Form Channel. Thanks for listening guys and we'll be back again later in the week let's hope.

Times Gulfstream Gulfstream Park Kentucky Derby twitter Us David Arrogant Florida Derby gouverneur Morris Florida Cutler Bay Tyler Death Leone Doctor Edgar phillies Saratoga Pokka Lopez Tyler New York Gulf
Episode 49: Saudi Cup, Fountain of Youth

Racing Rundown: A Horse Racing Podcast

1:04:40 hr | 1 year ago

Episode 49: Saudi Cup, Fountain of Youth

"All right so. We're back after a unseasonably long delay once again We ran out of allowance time so we didn't. We weren't able to have a show the week of the rebel. Excuse me not the rebel. The southwest stakes so we got a couple of. Derby preps from the past couple of weeks to talk about in addition to looking at some nice state's racist Gulfstream. We Got Kentucky Derby Points. One Horse GonNa Punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby this weekend another Horse GonNa Punch their ticket to the Kentucky Oaks on then. There's a couple graded stakes races one on one on grass horses at Gulfstream this weekend and in addition to Gulfstream. You've got everything with the Saudi Cup so But before we get into all the horses I want to just give Eric one opportunity to kind of give you his brief thoughts on one of the real sad moments that has happened recently in horse racing. And I if you're not aware if you've not checked out the video that I made on this already I would definitely suggest. Check this action. We're not gonNA spend too much time on this but if you're not aware champion Sire Racehorse. Ap Andy passed away this past weekend. So very unfortunate loss for the industry. He was thirty one so he did live a full life but again always said to lose so shape and horses. So I'll give you eric an opportunity just to give your thoughts as you weren't able to do the video with me on You know the the legacy of a PhD and just the type of horse that he he was dragging encourage. Everybody listened to go back and watch that. Video of Jackson was very detailed ing when a lot to Apd legacy on and off the track very well done But in terms of how I kind of do you hear the term sire of sires throwing out a lot for a lot of different horses out there pulpit is one of them and he's an offspring of eighteen because obviously the more Kind of the more recent one but ADP India's really discredited whole new generation of incredible sires. obviously The horse I think I mentioned every single weekend on this podcast constitution. is through the lines You get to. Ap In obviously his sire tap it's so many others at Jack mentioned a good amount of him in his videos. I won't go too in depth with just the incredible shaping of the breed on the. There's really no other way to describe how he left his mark every single race. Pretty much in America run every day will probably have an offspring of AP at some point in their bloodlines. He'll be there just quite incredible And the best part is is that even though he's not here On the Earth physically we are going to be able to see his his offspring. Maybe not direct offspring but Multigenerational offspring coming still on the race. Track for years to come and they're going to live on through the likes of constitution happen. Tell he's done in the breeding shed and so many others so truly a great loss but he's not gone yet. Yeah and that is one thing that you didn't mention his I was able to got a couple of Compliments on this. I was able to actually find most of the old. Ap and erase footage for some reason Usually don't have too much luck with finding stuff like that but I was able to pull it down off of all the all the places so also got that in the background so once again a loss for the industry but ap all in all in every facet was phenomenal. So on a bit of a lighter note GonNa get to get into the risen star two divisions of that race to horses on their way to the Kentucky Derby Mr Mom away from the first division and modernise from the Second Division. One horse that did not and I don't want to obviously start this by going at one works but one horse that did not perform was ano- door. I was not one that was particularly fond of the decision to take him away from the Elkin Rail Derby and go down and try to win a race. It fairgrounds that there wasn't really much of an indication that he would do particularly well in. But you know that's what they did and it ultimately didn't work out for him but Talk about Mr Automo- I think very solid win by Mr Mamo. He turned back a couple of really tough challenges. Enforceable ran a good second in that race but Mister mom really stamped himself as a horse that's going to be on the Derby trail Definitely for a trainer. Brad Cox who who at this time? He needs someone like that. Yeah I mean I won't get to detail about the race because we have a lot to talk about but I texted Jack. He was either the morning over the day after. Because I had it made my takes yet Or the day before it's us me and I told him My my pigs for the president. Who was Mr Mum and Moi was probably my most confidence? Turnoff GOES OFF IT. Close to each one. Wins by two and a half lengths very impressively. Well Ridden Jack as you touched on. Brag Hawksbill. Thought was going to be his His Big Derby Horse Kind of once in a generation Philly But obviously we unfortunately lost her of Mr Modern Way seems very capable of kind of taking taking the torch for the Blackhawks on the Derby trail of pedigree was maybe not the most beautiful thing Just by bear looks but if if you follow racing enough you probably know mama girl. Is He sure enough? He's a half two were in Vitalis melanoma winters distance should never be a problem You do definitely get away with an easy pace in the spot but I think I'll cheer town kind of pushed him through to victory garden more ideal trip than he had in his last couple of races and then so the horses. I'm going to Kinda take out of this because obviously if the Derby trail this is not the final. Stop in just because you don't win the race doesn't mean you're out of this. I'm GONNA take the top four enforceable and silver state continued to be very consistent. Definitely the types of going to see him the derby more than likely because they're easily going to be able to pick paychecks and they'll probably be running at the end of the Derby on the first Saturday in May then the four Farmington Urda ten and finished for Farmington road. I STAKE START AUTOMATING TAMPA Y. Post and was very far back. Came running late really well. Kind of off of kind of a slow pace so Pletcher knows how to get into Derby so I wouldn't be surprised as he and sneaking with a good effort in a one hundred point race. Yeah Very Nice. Serve that from the first division now. One thing that Eric didn't necessarily bring up here. But one of the things that Eric likes to do is go through and look at maidens and one of the horses that he has mentioned before came through Big Time. Modernists credit you on that. You're better a lot better at spotting Aden's than I am At a racist. That's another horse. Obviously Bill Motte looking for looking to get a controversial controversy Freeh Kentucky Derby and it looks like modern. It's going to be very give him a very good opportunity to do that. This year. Jacket. Ya You stated it perfectly this award. I'm really proud that I use a busy weekend. When he broke his deminers. Ben Pegasus weekend. I can't be sure about that but it was a rather big weekend in. He broke his maiden up at Ecuador's but I did get a chance to catch it in when I wash them like. This horse broke his maiden going nine pearl onto mile eighth and I told myself I didn't of course has a physical ability and he looks just like a like a like a runner. Chernoff proved that in the second division of the risen star of very impressive. Considering at at one point the stretch he was either headed or path. I really can't tell from the replay either way. There was a horse that item and he just continued to fight on. That was major traffic. I believe from the sappy Joseph Farnan. Obviously we'll talk about sappy jobs a little bit later So modernist huge huge upside I guarantee I don't believe there are a lot of believers in yet but I think when he goes on to win Louisiana Derby a really good second or third people start respecting this race. Definitely the weaker of the two divisions Our favorite door really did no running Kind of a nesn rising. Maybe it was the blinkers. Maybe the new writer either way. Not Impressive at all for me though. I think you could take the to the top. Six are all planning on moving on to even the top seven hundred. Saint moving on to reproduce In their next star however. I'm only really convinced about the top. Three major ped- runner really huge second off a rather slow pace and my traffic of solid third. I think only modernist is awarded again. Maybe consider a legitimate contender out of this. But obviously you get points running second third or fourth in every single derby race points race In there's hundred points coming up in I could definitely see one of these horses. Getting lucky hitting the board and running in the Derby. I'm moving onto last week. And we got a couple of horses from different sides of the country One thing that I want to touch on with the horses from Arkansas specifically with a southwest days Just the winner of silver prospectors. This is the kind of field of horses. It seems like that it could get overlooked. And that's understandable because Bob Baffert has the amount of forces that he's Gotten California and he's kind of kind of moving them around like chess pieces and try to get as many of them into the Kentucky Derby which is one of the things that Bob Baffert is really good at doing a trainer. But there's some talented worse. That are down in Oakland. That may not get as much of a notice as you would as they normally would being the fact that the Bob Baffert horses are waiting in the wings but with that being said silver prospect comes back off of head scratching run in the Smarty Jones and gets a win in the southwest. He's a nice horse and I could see him being able to compete with the heavy hitters from California. Once they come and not saying that he's not in the Senate is better than number is significantly worse but he seems like this is a horse that You know he really goes back to the form that he had the Kentucky Jockey Club and he can compete with them In the rebel and later on down the road at oaklawn totally Kind of east there. Adopt point of this group is definitely an overlooked one Especially when you consider the kind of Horse Over Prospectors Kentucky Jogging Club. Wonder which is historically and I mean when I say stork mean literally last year the year before always pumping out good runners on and he won that race This past fall in pedigree. Wise probably the most underrated on this year. Derby trail being a son of declaration of war. His then Especially towards the end of last year was throwing out runners left and right On all services over all distances and a son of a tap at damn so we're prospect is a really nice pedigree and he could only get better with more distant so I mean it was cutting back in the Smarty Jones. I doubt that the reason he lost but it could be an excuse But the southwest. When I mean to me He's a Derby Horse. He's on my derby top ten list. He he has a lot of potential and I think the one big concern. He's not battle-tested but we'll find out in three or so weeks What kind of course he when he runs in the rebel and asked to face the likes of Nepal. And any other Outta town. That's GONNA come and face this group so I think he's a really nice worse. The runner up world by you kind of just another untested type. But that considering that was his first week star and you lost by linked to agree to winter That's a gotTa give them a lot of credit for that. So a lot of question marks coming out of this race but I can't really speak negatively to the top three or top four. I think they all have a lot of potential there. Untested of those questions will be answered within the next month month and a half another worse. Gluten not necessarily blew up caught. A Lotta is was another affirmation from Bob Baffert coast running up at the Commuter Rail Derby. I mentioned my dissatisfaction with an odor. Not going to that that spot and that opened it up for us coast to run a big race here. He's not actually that bad. A lot of people are saying that he's run in the elk. Morale Derby validated. Even more the performance authentic had a going back to the first week in January in the sham stakes. But you know Aswa coast is not the type of horse that I would necessarily think would be the Kentucky Derby the question that I have with him as the exact question that I had with another twist of fate last year is. Where do you go with this horse from this point because turf way no longer has the fifty points with the the Jeff Ruby? Whatever iteration that racist being called so that is no longer an option. You can't go only synthetic to get to the Kentucky Derby so he's going to have to run on dirt somewhere and my question would be. Where would Bob Baffert? Go with this source would it be go to Sunland? Would it be maybe go to turf way and try? Try another low points race after turf way. I don't think that that's an option that Bob Baffert is not the type of trying to do that but That's something that if I was in the position it would be on the table for me or does he go to California. I also Nice Horse. I think he's probably either fifth or sixth. On the list of horses that Bob Baffert on his horses for the Kentucky Derby because there there was that really nice maiden winner that he had Charlotte in a couple of weeks that same weekend. So I would the question that would be with me for also says. He's got some town but I don't know where he would go with him from here. I agree that the back. The fabric definitely has no. I don't I wouldn't say no real plan. But he has no high expectations for this horse. obviously even now twenty years ago we were saying the same things we still say it. Now when Bob Baffert has where he's going to hype them up. Never even know hyper on this horse. And that's why I sent him the Golden Gate. His he didn't think he had the ability to contend down at Okwanda running arrays like this out west at maybe at this point. Obviously the Horse now has a rebirth in the preakness and I bought her. Isn't the type gotTA JUMP AT THAT? Opportunity immediately but if he thinks her horse has potential he might in terms of the next race. This kind of just a really cruddy race to run. And if you're trying to continue on the retrieval This weekend if you're not going to be flowing stream to another race at the track like Oakland does with rose outwards to the rebel fairgrounds from the ridden started Louisiana Derby. There's nowhere to go after this. You can maybe running the The sample ebay which is a week from this Saturday Which I think would be three weeks in between races for this worse. Or you can wait for the rebel. But I don't think this is of that caliber already going. You can wait for Sunlen but I mean it just doesn't make a lot of sense to run his horse to run any worse in the church that you're trying to continue on the Derby trail so I know will put it in a race But I don't think he used this horse as a scariest Derby horse new. Yeah that that. That's kind kinda echoes. The point of I don't know where you go with this from here. Remember you remember a couple years ago. Two thousand eighteen. There was a really nice grass philly paved that ran in the commuter rail derby she won that and didn't even go onto to run in any derby. Prep so there is that precedent to of a horse winning Elk Norell. Derby not saying that El Camino real is going to go on the turf though. That's not one of Bob Baffert specialties. But to Eric Chagrin at sometimes. But that's not a Bob baffert specialty. But it's very likely to see that. This is not even running in any triple crown race but regardless. It is worth mentioning him. He did one of preparation. It wasn't nice win but it wasn't anything super spectacular so this is probably a very low end. Derby Horse Horse on Derby lists for Bob Baffert. I don't think he gets in at some point. I think too many too many things would have to happen and everything would fall into place and as we all know nothing falls into place. One hundred percent for people in horse racing so with that being said we'll move on to the racist for this weekend and a race. That was Kinda. Hit a little bit by a last minute. Defection of the Breeder's cup juvenile turf. Winter structre The Fountain of Youth Balloon at the last second now has a really really big field of horses for this this race It's obviously headlined by my favorite horse. Dennis's moment I'm really high on Dennis's moment I've said that I liked Denis moment before but after I talked to Dale Rooms I believe I said. I've said this you ever points the phrase that I said was. I like the source before I love. This horse now But regardless of the fondness that I have for the trainer and for the Horse it's proof at time fifty points. You're not GonNa get into another opportunity. No bad steps at notepad steps stumbling out of the starting gate or throwing the jockey. It's go time we. We both talked about this to each other a lot. I think everybody that he's cheering. Dennis's moment has the same feeling of like he's a lock but eating internally there saying I've no idea how this is going to run. I think he's a really good horse. We all know a good horse when he puts it all together but I when we were talking yesterday. Go on Kinda what we're going to discuss today. I mentioned that Palladian perhaps never ridden this horse. Lean taking over in the saddle for a moment because I rather cheese in Saudi Arabia this weekend. So a new rider on a horse that is very capable of showing his quirks Non Very ideal So I don't really I can't say you to lock and I can't make it my top choice purely because there's so many questions that surround him So I- looking at this research. A lot of other ways. We could go jack. I'm GonNa let you talk a little bit about chanted and kind of his situation before we go to further because You're GonNa talk about how What's Happy Joseph thing with his horse? We can't really go without talking about that. Came out a couple couple of hours ago. That after the post a three horses in this have very very good chance of winning at shot ski and chance at all them drew the three outside posts in a chance at being obviously the far outside Post Efi Joseph considering taking him out of the race and postpone his run until Tampa so that would definitely make this race a lot. Easier not just for Dennis moment but for a lot of other horses on there so that would be interesting to see whether or not sappy Joe do it. I know Eric told me before the show he said. That's not always the best sign because a good really good horse will run well no matter what the post physician is so but you know regardless of that whether he runs industries are not he. It's still really solid field very solid out before I go any further also. I'm just going to tell you. The horses our entered the trainer saw the small field and thought they might have a chance. But let me tell you. If they don't the two three four eight joining me consider they are. I think I think one or two at least is a maiden the other two are just so out of their league in this spot profited. Trainers for you know putting them in here but there's really no legitimate chance for those horses so I'm gonNA focus on the ones that we can talk about champion. You'd already talked about very talented of doubts. I post is a bit of a concern for me but I think if you have. The Best Horse Post doesn't matter either way was not gonna be my top choice in here. It'll be interesting to see these days in of but based off the trainers Thomas saying that he's I understand that he is no big brown as sappy. Joseph said a big brown was maybe not the last words to win from the twelve post at Gulfstream but Probably the most notable one. I understand that your horse is maybe not that caliber. But you don't say you don't tell the public that you that you think you're legitimate legitimate in hand quotes Derby. Contender is not like a derby horse. Derby winner so to me that. That's a major turnoff for that horse. I'm GonNa go with the Horse to have the barn at the moment And you're in a really good second to my favorite horse under Derby trail right now to the law Eddie neon the eleven outside coast but it doesn't matter because he's not as you'd horse He's got a lot of raw talent that I think we're yet to see to starts back. He wanted allowance by multiple links over Toledo who is highly regarded from the Chad Brown. Barn in overall. I think there isn't a ton of speed in this race but not necessarily locked in speed horse even though there isn't because to stalkers will seem to have a better chance or kind of a mid. Pack Horse. And that's exactly where this horse falso. Eddie Andy on my pick in the spot despite the outside post In addition the tractor the Varna. Sautin plur onto route leader. Not a not a lot of people really. He's very good when he arrived at Gulfstream Park. The biggest one being the Pegasus went on gunrunner a couple years ago but any other time. He's written up a Gulfstream. He seems to ride just about as well as he does at his local track. So I'm excited about Jack. Lee Talk about a couple of other bigger contenders in this race. Like Like shots he of TV. But Eddie in your is kind of my lock for the weekend. Yeah and like I said before before we go any further I will say I'm going to die on the Dennis Moment Hill. I've been with this horse since since he won the the era. Of course I'm going to die on the Dennis's moment hill. I do want to mention Eric. Talking about One of some of the throwaway horses eight gear. Jockey is one of the ones that he mentioned less three starts gear. Jackie has run on grass. So this hasn't run on dirt since his first start in which he ran eight so complete. Draw a line through gear. Jockey shot skeet. You go back. A couple starts to his win in the ransom. That was very good but he ran rig. Okay second last time out to Max player but you know I I would say. There's some better horses racing. The horse rain a very nice second was the affirmation as seen on TV. Also Kelly brain front of the show so I would love to see Dennis's moment and ask seen on. Tv Run one too. So I can say show people to do well but realistically I'm not going to write off as seen on. Tv Nice horse but a running in a grade two race against the Breeders Cup. Juvenile favourite probably would have been two year old champion. If he'd been able to run well it is a lot is a lot more than just running against a nice horse like chance it as rooster earlier. So there's some there's some good horses in this spot though and you know even if like I mentioned earlier chance it does defect still really solid race but unlike I said I'm going to die in the dentist Moment Hill so Moving onto another race. That is going to have a heavy favourite in it. Going back out to the the her last start the forward. Gal stakes and that is the really Nice Philly tonal shape four for four her career undefeated. She's not she's not the only horse in this race with a chance to win it but Tony shape is still very highly regarded and one horse in the spot that I am side from. Toneless SHAPE THAT. I am interested to see how she turns out. Is the the first time starter from WHO was ran? Third in the forward Gal Nikki and Papa for Ron Pollute jam interested to see how she comes back in her second start to starts to stakes. You don't really see that too often. This time and age in the sport but those are the tumors. They catch my eye. But I'll pick totally shape in the spot. But this is definitely not a slam dunk rated off win for Tomas Shaping in the Doina Dale. You covered the with the favourite likely. Heretic should say toneless shape. Focus on two horses That you didn't mention that you mentioned are probably So therefore horses out of the nine that I think of legitimate chances. A your mentioned tonal shape Niqian Papa. Who's I mean whether I can think legit or not? I don't know but to run their new graded stakes on debut albeit a rather weak. One is pretty impressive. So the two. I'm going to focus on are the six. Fights is nice in seven Byron. Not so I'll start with a little less high end byronesque. She's two for two in her career. coming up in allowance when Churchill on Kentucky Jockey Club weekend of so last fall so I- about three months now Since she last ran but she's coming from the Cherry do go bard who not many people probably know that name but choosing Chad Brown assistant for quite a long time before going out on her own last year And one thing every everyone to gambled at least or cares about Pitino winner. should know from the Chan- Brown Barney's it doesn't matter horse has been offer. Five years out. Horse is going to run a excellent race back off. The left had horses fire. At an extremely high rate off the layoff and as a result his protege Shrewd Abo- has had the same of luck with horses. Coming off of a bit of a layoff so layoff does not scare me for this horse that his two for two has shown a lot of potential winter I he races and I imagine has gotten better from two to three so byronesque horse going to run at least place at least place in this spot. But I think she's going to play because I think she can beat the six spices nice. Who An incredible pedigree Daughter of curling out of grade one winner game. Dorothy who I this Iran. I think I could do my own show on about how gained working probably should have won the Breeders Cup billionaire sprint in two thousand fifteen But that's another story for another day. The phillies one for one from the todd. Pletcher born a one million dollar purchase of the yearling and she won by daylight just blew the doors off of all competition I I am willing to say that. If this horse wins the Dimona Dale I could spy impressively she. Can't anybody knows. But if he wins this race by four more lancs as impressively as I hope. I think she can be a derby horse. I think she's damage potential and that much ability on that she could be a horse to win the Florida. Derby obviously at speculation for now but I just think that this horse is very legit so a lot of talent from that race Moving onto one of the other races that we mentioned roller horses. The the Mac. Barometer that reese will feature the return of the Pegasus World Cup turf winner Zulu Alpha in a spot. Here's a couple of Nice horses Channel Maker not necessarily being more than a very high end but one. That's worth mentioning last. Start out he was twelfth in the Breeders Cup Turf so not a very good performance from here a horse. I've talked about a lot and I picked him before and spots but I've just lost faith in him over the course of his not performing well since he ran third in the two thousand Eighteen Breeders Cup turf that that of course being Sadler's joy and then also from the New York terp triple series. You have a threat of blue who on the Saratoga Derby last summer you also have another horse returning from the Pegasus World Cup turf. Admission Office. this'll be a spot that I'd say. It's very likely that Zulu Alpha will build off of that win and the Pegasus Turf. It's not a guarantee but very very good chance for him to build off of a really solid foundation that he set this year on the Pegasus Sharp. Not that he's going to be calm and other bricks and mortar but a very good start for allow going into twenty twenty and could see him mow continuing more off of that really solid beginning. Probably the choice in this spot. Just because he is you want one Pegasus World Cup turf. Obviously last time out. And it's hard to go against that kind of this group of horses just so gang inconsistent it is rather impossible to dictate what they're gonNA do at any given time so to pick a winner among these ten entered horses is very challenging spooky channel who won on the undercard race Mcknight I believe it was A. He was astronomic. Odds something like that but just screw up This kind of group can be I'M NOT GONNA go with a long shot. I'm knocking to go with a mild upset. Even though that's probably what's going to happen I'm just going to stick to the one. That has the nicest price on the board that'll be do Alpha Expect salaries join channel maker to be well. Bet is a threat of blue to be right up there as well as admission office Squeaky channel will get more respect. His win but I can honestly tell you that any of them have a chance Pure talents I think that the most talented of this group throughout their careers has always been the five channel maker in teams have been on a bit of a decline. No last few starts I do wonder maybe this is the race. He turns around and be perfect considering How this group goes of the Juru Zulu Alpa just based off that last one. A little too impressive to go against and moving onto the fundraiser golfing. Park that we're going to touch on today another race. It's full of some horses that I would describe as okay too good and a lot of those okay. Horses having a lot of inconsistency with them So some the headliners from that group. Obviously everyone's favourite made an allowance allowance when our body express? I've said it before and I will continue European notion that I had never been high body express Another Eric mentioned before In our show planning crustal this has been the definition of inconsistent He wins a great. He runs one one or two in three consecutive races and Wins the grade one. Would HE STEVENS RUN? Second to a really solid really saw at four year old mind control and beats chance lot. Who probably is the best sprinter going into this year? And then He'll go and he'll run a fifth in Phoenix and a sixth and the Breeder's Cup sprint. And then come back and run a second at the fairgrounds so this is a Horse Hakkari. Coastal that it's the definition of As I mentioned with Bodey Express he also got high call who was a head not a headliner but had some respect on the Derby trail ask ultimately didn't run in the Kentucky Derby because he's scratched high calls got got some respect to your true timber. That's a horse I'm highlighting because he's usually in a lot of these graded stakes. Races usually doesn't do anything in them but Worth mentioning him also. The horse is probably going to be the favourite for this race off of his really really good performance in the Pegasus turf. Her excuse me Pegasus. World Cup is Mister freeze again from my Mandell Romans Barn and of course I would love to see Mr freeze win this race But I'm not ready to sit to to jump jump up and say that this horses superstar off a second place effort or not even just a superstar to say that he. He's turned a corner a really high level horse down at Gulfstream. Because there's really not that there's not an indication of that but You know this aretha mile that it's more of like his distance and mister freeze has been running really solid races last three times out in the Clark was third in the air before the Clark you on the second the fate third in the Clark second the Pegasus World Cup this horse. It's been really really running well and put in good performances as past four times but Ju- just not really certain that he's going to come off and win in this spot. Because I mentioned there are some really inconsistent horses stories. And maybe maybe we get Hakkari running the race of his wife. Or MAYBE WE GET MR freeze winning winning another graded stakes race. Or maybe we get someone else doing something that you really cannot predict what's going to happen and the the the most interesting thing about this rate is going to be. How speech shapes out purely because Gulfstream generally favors horses. But there's a lot of early speed in this race however none of that early speed has ever proved. They can hold their early speed. There's a lot of pressure But in a race like this you do tendency horse that maybe comes from maybe not all the way off the pace so deep closer like do share or Hogg Creek Hustle win rather use Economou mid to late closer horse come. That is where I land on the two or three high call. Fatman so the speed in this race is GonNa come from the fives ended. The one body express Likely the eight rare form and mister freeze right off of that rare form is dead. Set on the lead of you'll like ended is generally out on on the top and early on and body expresses likes to press the pace as well as MR freeze In that justly probably a forty five something forty-five unchanged half-mile a little too fast for those those horses. So high call. He came back to win that allowance from Atwood of very impressively In in his comeback race after being injured on Derby Week and I was probably the most impressive ever been by this horse and especially because that went ackward one turn mile Give needed more faith. You can replicate a Fatman ran really huge. Last time out on his win at Gulfstream I wasn't necessarily expecting that. Big of a performance from him but it obviously was enough to win and he seems to dislike goals remains. He's now a win win in a second they're both At a mile or a mile and sixteen. So He's definitely one that's on the improvement. Probably been the most consistent over the last couple of races out of this group. So I'M GONNA go. Hi Column Top to Fatman Second. And I'M GONNA KEEP MR freeze around four third and those closers are going to be coming late. I have a lot of feet hog creek. Hustle is ready for a big year but a one where he's going to pick up a lot of good paychecks for places and shows and great ones in grade Jews but he's GonNa come running late but Just at a track like this. There's no guarantees will run day. So now we're GONNA shift all the way over halfway around the world for the inaugural running of the Saudi Cup. And obviously it's as we have seen over in. Dubai when you get these bigger races that bring that the American Dirt Stars over American distanced stars. You always got to have an undercard full of some good races and there are some. There are some recent in Saudi Cup. That are under Carter definitely worth paying attention to. I'll let air get into the the Nausea Motor Motors Cup that net so I race in Saudi card. That will be on at about a for for Erica. A nice solid five in the morning A little bit more reasonable in the morning for me but some of these people are going to be some early post times early warning races. Jack yesterday told him at least. It's going to be good practice before you buy when I have to get up just as early so I'll be used to it by then But starting with the I'M NOT GONNA say the entire sponsorship. I'm just GONNA call it the motors. Tough the Motors Cup My own five sixteen so just a little bit longer than a mile and a quarter. This group tiny wide open not a ton of a ton of talents. But Not one horse in here. That's really gonNA blow the doors off you But the headliner is geared rather the Japanese villa who spent a good portion of last year in the United Kingdom and Ireland running and their biggest races and actually won a big Grade one over group. One excuse me over there Forcing the Hong Kong vase last time in a very tough race We talked about it a little bit on the podcast when it was ran again But in terms of talent she has the most in this group and if she can replicate for her performance maybe even that performance. It'll do enough to get the victory in this spot. If she can run how she ran in the Nassau. I think it was the Nassau at least Last summer she should be able to win this race by multiple links down. Ever from the annual. Brian Barn Rin really poor in the In the Hong Kong vase a couple of actually not spot but he he has shown consistent before then and the last horse. I'm GonNa Kinda talk about Willie mullins For those who follow international racing enough of very prominent steeplechase trainer But he also does some work on marathon Level TURF horses over there. This horse definitely likes to go along To start back. He ran in a Australian packed in your in second any very competitive group stakes down there so I think he's one that maybe could improve from Last year to this year Going a little short I might like to see from him It's a good group. But I think the end of the day Deirdre Navy. Not a lock. Because she has proven that she can be kind of like a magic wand sends where even though she has all the talent in the world doesn't like to win so that's my one concern with her but if she's on her best she should one and we'll get to magic wand later on in the program and this is one one prediction that I wanNA make. This might not be the most bold prediction or anything but One thing that I will say about this is I think there's going to. There's going to be going to be a big weekend for Japan on Saudi Arabia. Hong Kong the Hong Kong Cup Hong Kong vase weekend one three of the four group one races out moving onto the next race the thirteen fifty one cup and that that is a six and a half furlong turf sprint. A headliner here is swayed Wa Who's run some nice races in the United States before Rent third last start in the United States at Keeneland in the in the shed while turf miles. Use Me there behind Bowie. Zero and diamond. Oops then he last start out one WANNA race it made on on the turf so had a lot of starts eating generally very consistent. Not If you look at his last starts aside from a poor run in the Queen Anne stakes in two thousand eighteen a lot. A lot of top four finishes for for this Horse. Swayed joie really really consistent. Moore's again aside from that Disaster in the Queen Anne that we're not gonNA talk about anymore but definitely definitely worth looking into it. I would probably say this. I'm not GonNa say this is the best source but definitely wanted to keep your eye out on. You also got a Horse in the Doug O'Neill barn legends of war Sun A scat. Daddy WanNa last his Daddy Who has not run very well in his last two starts Did Not do anything was last in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint and was ninth in the Joe. Hernandez is worth mentioning that. He has one racist before he won the Franklin Simpson and was second in the desert code at Santa. Anita back going all the way back to June of two thousand seventeen. But I'd probably say my my horse go in this spot would be swayed Wa. Yeah that's a really good pick. I do like it a lot especially because my big thing. When with these turf sprints is if it's around a turn the Europeans are not going to like it. They never have they never will and all that evidence comes from their runs in the. Us and the tourists were is there. Obviously there's no straight of like like in Europe The UK Ireland Ninety nine percent of their turf races. Six or five for long are ran on a straight. There're no bends or anything they go straight down the line bathroom north winds in the US. Obviously all the tracks are Ogle's so you're never gonNA see a street six furlongs five. It's all going to be a around at least one ben and Breeders Cup every year an American horses one. Why because they're used to bed the Europeans are not which is why I have to go with an American or horse. That's used to abandoned in the spot. So there's two horses. I really liked because of that factor the horse. I'm going with this. Peter Miller Goule. He knows how to get Peter. Miller knows how to get them. Ready for those Middle Eastern turf sprints. Because now there's two the first one being the Sprint where US had loads of success just yet to get that big winner of but he ran second a couple of times and this horse probably should've won last start had a horrendous ride on who's worse weaken of writing of his career combined. Depth Hoar effort with the Pacers Turf effort which I talked about on the podcast last month but I think this has all the intangibles to put together. A huge breakthrough win The other one Probably I imagine going to be. One of the favorites is glorious journey. When the off the hedy forward seven furlongs at dawn also around a bend Definitely low talent from the Charlie appleby Barna very successful bond In one of the more impressive efforts. I think I've seen from the Dubai Carnival over. I just think you'll probably is going to like the six and a half furlongs and the bend a little bit more. So Google top pick in this spot glorious journey for Second. I will go a Suede Suede Walker third moving onto the the long gene TURF Cup. You gotTA gotta former Melbourne Cup winner in this race cross counter again for the aforementioned. Charlie appleby you also have called to the bar. Who's in Hong Kong vase and we've been talking about a lot on this show The fifteen that started last. You also have another horse from the barn of Three Time Breeders Cup winners a trainer to Time Breeders Cup Winners Jockey Freddy Head of course You remember the names mask and gold a cova with Freddie head He's got this horse. He was second in the Free Royal. Oakes last start out so those would be the horses that I would highlight in the spot. Who are who are you? Thinking are some horses. You're really interested in the spot. It's it's a very talented group Obviously Very European because I imagine most of our listeners. A focus on American racing right quickly so In this group is very You have to follow European rates into kind of know them which I won't say forward at a depth his home and lives there but I do follow it as As much as I can and we have the Melbourne Cup winner from two years ago. I in cross counter. He's very talented together. Very solid campaign last year. Dx BE WHO is coming off a poor effort And his last are Emmy Don his first start for new trainer however before that he was very consistent in those rich before then but overall just kind of looking through this group. I have this racist run at a mile and seventy s and one of the factors that I usually Take in examining race with A marathon race is the because even though it is a long distance horses for even longer distances than my own seventy S. That's what I usually get from call to call the wind From two two miles. He's usually pretty thought but the longer the better for him so I can rule them out because I think a mile and seven eighths might be a little too short for him looking around. I do think weekender from John. Gosden Barn will put in a good run if he's on his game. There's no guarantees. But he very solid horse when he's on his best day Over although I think I'm going to stick with cross counter on top I think Charlie applebee's is really good off a bit of a layoff as this horse coming off of so you don't talk to me. I think twilight payment from the Joseph Bryan born is distant. Kind of right in the WHEELHOUSE Anything under a little under two miles or time from mile and Fleming eighth teach. Miles should be up his alley. So I think twilight payment per second and I'm going to stick with weekender for third Call the wind. He's going to run these races. You're not gonNA seem going until the GAL about event So Cross counter twilight aiming and weakened or my talk are moving onto the next race which is Saudi Arabia again. Note Derby points on the line for this race that could change going into the future depending on how this race runs up before. WanNa hit on before I hit on the the two American horses in this spot. Rowdy Yates and billy batts. I just want to highlight. What the Philly in this race down by is going to try to do in this spot last weekend at the she had that absolutely dazzling performance one by a bunch of links. I don't actually specifically off the top of my head. What the final margin that race was but you buy a bunch and coming off of that to run in this race a week after that. If she were if she were to win this race I would be comfortable in saying right. I if she was at raised. I will say Saturday afternoon. That that horse is a Kentucky Derby Player on a Horse. The able to you know just run run a really fantastic race like she did it in the UAE oaks turnaround or something like that in the Saudi Derbi again she's going to have to win the UAE Derby in order to get in. But if she's able to do that. I will definitely say very very serious contender for the Kentucky Looking at looking at the two other horses I mentioned radiates won the Riley Alison Derby last. Start out he he. He's been around for trainers. Spca he was seven The start before the Riley Allison in the springboard mile Not Not a really good performance from him there He was also fifth year. Of course not not great in graded stakes but he has won some listed races on the Don McNeill the Oklahoma juvenile's classic and he also won Before the Iroquois the Ellis Park juvenile so and he has had he did have one success graded stakes theresa a second in the Bashford manor that research Churchill. Downs on the twenty ninth of June. Going way back for him. And then you also have Billy Betts who? I mentioned a little bit earlier with year jockey. The Breeders Cup juvenile end with obviously the winner But the this Horse Billy Batts was second in the Breeders Cup juvenile before that he was third in the Juma Beach in second in the del Mar turf not this will be his first start on dirt so it will be interesting to see where he goes from there but he was. Y- has won his last out the BAFFI state or shooting the BAFFLES stakes at Santa Anita. So it will be interesting to see how this works does is i. Start on dirt There's other horses spot but I wanted to highlight the two American runners in this Martin. Also just up say mentioned what the phillies trying to do yeah. I'm glad you highlighted the Philly. 'cause obviously that ever last was huge I don't know how else able to repeat it. Curious that The group she was a little weak this rates. It's super interesting if you look back on last year's Ua Eater Bee. We saw two Americans come home. One to that in America probably would not have qualified for the Derby based on points in in Preparez. A one hundred point. Prep race over here. These two verses are very talented. Billy Batten radiates. They've proven it But I doubt the better of the two but based off of that last last year Derby alone I think you might be looking at a similar situation where you have a group of pretty good horses however none of them are going to be able to compete with an American dirt horse There is some talent though that that it is in the race that I think it's important talk about if you're trying to look outside. The Americans Bella fever ear first. Northern Hemisphere Star won a seven furlong race industry is a mile. So it's not like it's an extremely long distance that Schwartz's can't handle Delicate everyone going on the grass don in her first ever Northern Hemisphere Stars News. Brennan unbeliev either Uruguay or Argentina. One of the two Either way he was South America so she has a little bit more experience than Groups will be facing this year. Full flat ran. We're the say a good fit in abused juvenile based on his expectations. Going in so with the right set of might be will get home. Fleet Conway is a horse. I really liked from Dubai. He's run a couple of really good local races with Scorpion. The UN you two thousand guineas and his last start up a really rough trip So think there's one horse that isn't one of the two Americans that I can win. It would be late. Causeway this track in In Riyadh the The tracking seems to very very very Fair to everybody the best will win nine out of ten times in never affected I By the track being speed biased or for closures on this season closer. So if there's a write pay set of which I believe there could be with the two Americans plus down onto by you. I think that grace could sit out really well for him. He's my third choice. I'M GONNA GO BILLY BATTS. First Rowdy eight seconds and I will make a prediction at this point. I was just looking over this And looking ahead toward the jury. I will make a prediction rowdy. Yates will be in the Kentucky Derby this year whether he wins or run second in the UAE Derby that prediction that. I am comfortable at making now rowdy. Yates will be in the Kentucky Derby this year. Not saying that he you'd necessarily run well. But that will be a prediction that at this point all be comfortable to make Moving onto the race that a obviously everyone's excited for the Saudi Cup at the rates that I'm really looking forward to is the Saudi sprint. Which will feature the return of imperial hint a you remember. He was scratched before the Breeder's Cup sprint. I think he would have a very good chance to win that race. And then Last amount he was stirred in the Mr Prospector. He had an absolute Payton. There was absolute pace meltdown in that race with him in the late X. Y. jet. I think this is definitely be a better spot for imperial hint again. The seven furlongs is not the best a distances. Four imperial hint coming back down to six furlongs definitely will help him. A lot in this spot and There's not really any horse that I look at this out. Say That that horse would be particularly better than imperial hint. I think that this is a spot. That imperial hint is GonNa come back off and Get get a win going onto what I think could possibly be his final year. I don't know purely has been around for a lot but Adeptly sentimental story at least for me to see him come round. How the Nice Twenty twenty. Maybe maybe finally get that Breeders Cup win. He's definitely the class of this group. I've never been impressed with one of his races at six furlongs. He always seems to really well at this distance which I know he's coming off of a kind of a sub par everbody's he's definitely The class of the field so super excited for him. However there is some good competition in here and mainly a lot of speed and speed is going to be able to is the one thing that. I can always test this horse. No matter I know girling can run very fast. But I don't know how long he can hold it off of a slightly off. I should say in addition to the fact that He's kind of getting up there in age and the older you get. I seems like with this horse. The his power has kind of deteriorated even from last July. Gladiator Qinghai seems to be the horse on the based off of two stakes. Wins in Dubai I've really been impressed with those two words And if he can replicate them he's going to be good enough to contend with this group. Captain Scottie he's an American horse is a horse however unwilling to throw them out in this spot. I think that last one was kind of flunkies. Never been super consistent when he needed to be In for me. That is the automatic Crossed the line there is he needs to be able to keep put a game poor to win this race and I just haven't seen it from him yet the other to highlight but not necessarily pick but they're important to the structures New York central to former Steve Atkinson Training Just have loads of early speed. He's going to show it in. Probably has the imperial events and drafted comes from way off the pace. And he's just nominated by very nice setup in his last year Ron Abney Don so this track seemingly being one that plays fair he could come running late. I'M GONNA stick with gladiator king in this spot to pull the upset on imperial and imperial. Hit is probably the better horse driving. See a couple of factors going against him. In addition to that gladiator king seems to be on the on the on the Inclined at this point in his career. So I'M GONNA go gladiator king. He's GONNA run down imperial him late and drafted is gonNA come running late for and now moving onto the race and which is twenty million dollars Saudi Cup richest race in the world. I running that in all at Eric. Introduce this by letting him give the horse that he's going to throw out of this spot right right off the Bat. The two says you can definitely just look at immediately asked on or I'm not really sure how to pronounce it because there's nothing in the English dictionary that has two days in a row so Jacker whatever that's worth to throw you get when the local Pratt but I'm pretty sure he's going to see these sources into panic and he's going to immediately just wish did not show up this day's GonNa miss his old Saudi. But he's a great Scott's the other one He's another local horse but he does just as urge no looks in this one But the rest is group is loaded with Donald. Get back to Jack so we can talk about it. I think that the other I won't say all of the twelve has had a chance at winning. But all twelve vicente running a really good rix. Obviously you know the top five horses. Everyone's going to talk about. Are The Americans over here? Maximum security? Obviously we've talked ad nauseam about him midnight. Bc It's going to be her first start against males. She had a very very saw camping. You don't mean need me to tell you how good her campaign was if she had been able to put it together with the Breeders Cup very easily. She could have been horse year. Tacitus is a horse that I have always liked. Liked him back to all the way back to his run in the Tampa Bay Derby when no one was really sure on what was what the source is GonNa be. I think that the new writer change with the Ryder. Change with Tacitus. I think that's definitely going to benefit him. I don't think Jose Ortiz has ridden him too. I've said this about tacitus before I don't think the Tacitus in any of his starts since the wood memorial he's written up to the potential that he has I think very easily tacitus could've been a Belmont stakes winner But that's neither here nor there. I'm not going to go through and give reason you've reason why tacitus should have won every race running. Mackenzie obviously from Bob Baffert He ran a nice second Breeders Cup classic last year. He's run good braces before There's obviously a lot of focus around him. And the new the new one on the scene the Pegasus World Cup winner. Muccio Gustavo It's going to be interesting to see with him whether or not he's going to be able to take that step and show that he is a horse that's worthy to compete on the top level and can beat really high class horses like these ones. I not going to say that. I don't doubt that he can I do have some slight reservations with him. But I I have always been a defender Macho goose don't even going into the Pegasus When when there wasn't the question of some of these sources running and not running I thought Muccio Gustav could always be counted on to run a really solid race in any spot. Another horse that I really really like At going back to the another another one from Pegasus Week in his magic wand. She's trying something new that maybe the new surface is what they need to finally get this force to win a race but it just seems with magic wand the only thing she can do is run second so if you want a sure bet not a sure. Bet because it's not interpret if you WANNA make a bet on something That's probably very likely to happen. Bet Magic Wanda run second. You might get. You might thank me for that later. But I I would love to see Magic Wanda do all. I don't necessarily have the highest confidence in her to do that. But I'd love to see her run second and another horse. It looks to build off of a very nice performance last year. That wasn't his last start. I will mention but looks to build off that really really good run in Dubai World Cup last year's Gronkowski so again airs talk about The horses that I talked about some of the others that I left for him to talk about But all of really nice forces in this field. Yeah you mentioned pretty much all the American horses or even the two the one former American horse in the one horse who likes to run second in America magic. Juan Gronkowski you into the Dubai World Cup runner up last time out in he's going to be better crate for the start He's comeback race was was a comeback race for reason he did not here in a very non threatening of behind the eventual winner. That One ben battle. Who if I think there is any horse? Well I'm not GonNa say I think he's the clear choice to beat the Americans because I'm GonNa talk about the Japanese crossover role in a second but then battle. I drew comparisons to Dubai Millennium after his win last out in his first ever dirt stark in the second round of the al-Maktoum Challenge. And I I have to agree with those e absolutely random off his feet We've seen the Godolphin success with the horse going from Turkic Thunder Snow I think this horse mining even be better under thunder snow. This horse battle has a lot of talent. So I'M GONNA keep talking to talk about a little bit more in a little bit. I'm going to mention another horse coming of Dubai. A former Dubai World Cup a local favourite North America. Who has run some incredible races over at Madang Coming off a kind of once again. A very light prep into this race. Definitely A tune-up race in the first round Kyun Challenge But I do think that he could come back and run a better race here. Cap is on. Oh very impressive win. Going a mile and made on his last start his seasonal debut And then the one of the two Japanese who I think is definitely going to run up the track gold dream. He's a very good Japanese horse but I just don't think he's at that this level In there is precedent to see not able to compete with this. He ran last Nadu. Viral up your arrogate wanted with the one horse who I think is an absolute wildcard. But if he shows like he showed up in Japan is going to be maybe better than the American. It's Chris Oh barrel. He is one every single starting his career by open links. A witty's is one running the at a mile and a quarter den his best race in the Japan Cup. Derby are the Japan Derby. Excuse me being a lot of good horse into competition weaker. No no dirt horse has No dirt horse internationally. can hold a candle to American worse by this horse is the best of the best on the on the dirt in Japan. And if he's able to run he's run in Japan if he's able to just usually handle the competition there. I think he can hang with the best American horses in this spot. So He's GonNa be my top three not my top choice but he's going to be in my top three plus talk pace a little bit because as much talked about how fair this track is. That doesn't mean it's going to be It's not going to hurt a horse or a group of horses ever GonNa go back on the front and it just means that it's going to be easier for to get home so we have the speed horses in this rates were maximum-security who show Goose Joe. North America cap is on a likes to get up there. in the Kinsey McKenzie's definitely going to be near the lead. So those are those are all horses. I'm kinda weary on now because there's a lot of good horses that are GonNa want. There's a couple of weeks white being in front that moves through the able to rate however he does his best running on the lead same kind of set from jobs to definitely North America. Definitely Capistrano and I don't think either of them. They believe which is why I have to throw them out. So I'm GonNa go to horse that's Kinda mid pack closer. The horse. Who Navy's been hyped up all week but I think it's for good reason. I'm GONNA go tacit. Is HE GONNA give a call it up the first ever Saudi Cup win being a you know Saudi royalty going to get that big. I think that this horse has been training. Well He seems to maybe have mentally matured as happened to do with age and I think he's bound for huge willing. I think he's going to pick up the pieces of the tired front runners run on bought for. Sobral is my my wildcard. Pick FOR SECONDS. I who have a lot of respect for this horse. I think he's GonNa run huge and third. I'M GONNA I'm GonNa go with midnight. She's looked really good in the morning videos. I've seen on twitter. Probably not the best way to handy have but I think she. She's going to do better than breeders. Cup distaff effort show. She probably could have been horse beer if he wins that race. So tacitus for so long my long-shot pick and then midnight do. However as I said earlier there are twelve horses in this race with a legitimate shot to win. I'M GONNA. I'M GONNA GO WITH THAT. Same Ron. I'M GONNA Tennessee this year and it's worth mentioning one thing. I'll get back to Ben Battle. I think this is a horse that year and a half ago was running against winks in the cock cocks play. Excuse me and now is going to be going on dirt for a chance to win the Saudi Cup against a American really talented American horses. And also with Tacitus Billy. It has been the international trailblazer. He won the first. You Buy World Cup with Cigar. He's got a chance to win the first World Cup with Saudi Arabia. So if your person who likes to bet history not a bad bet to make what tacitus at all but You know like Eric has mentioned twelve forces that have a legitimate shot to win You know I it would be a great story of the Phillies ran one two. I'd love to see magic wand run well but not no guarantee that that's going to happen. I think that this is a new experiment with magic minimal. See how it goes but all in all looks like it's going to be a good week of racing in Saudi Arabia looking ahead toward next weekend we got some. Derby preps on hand. Obviously the San Felipe out in California. That race was not run last year because of the issues that Senator had that we've talked about Ad Nauseam on on the show also running that we can is the Gotham in the tape Derby so By that point we we should have a very very solid clear picture of what the Kentucky Derby is GonNa look like. Obviously not every horse is going to be decided but We'll we'll be able to see some of the really good horses and then moving on into that week as Eric. Texted me yesterday. He said we're heading into seven weeks of just really good racing and also I didn't even didn't even mention We got I got caught up in all the derby stuff sanity handicap is next week and so big great one for older Americans horses. I believe game winner is returning that spot a horse that I've been very highly on so excited to see that but as I mentioned. Seven weekends of just great racing As we head into the Kentucky Derby and then from that we will be three weeks out from the Kentucky Derby and we'll obviously be talking about the the the the Kentucky Derby over those three weeks for for a bunch of that and we will be I. I know one of my very most controversial things from last year is when I went through I chronicled. Why Major Horse on the Kentucky Derby trail would not were on the Kentucky? Derby field would not win the Kentucky Derby this year. We're GONNA switch that up and Eric and I are going to. Why every horses going to win the Kentucky Derby and we'll have to we'll definitely have to work for some of those but that is something that will be coming up with that going into the Kentucky Derby so looking forward to seven weeks of just really good racing across the country. I'm excited for Eric's excited for it. And so should you so with that That that is it. Good luck with everything this weekend. If you decide Blue Saudi Cup or anything else Will be interesting to see how US Americans do out there and Whether or not it is a spoiler from whether it's Japan or Australia. Whoever is the spoiler would be interested to see who that is going to be? So that is about it That's all we have for you today. we'll see you next week.

Kentucky Derby Bob Baffert Eric Chagrin Saudi Cup Alison Derby Jack Louisiana Derby Dubai Philly Dennis Saudi Arabia Elkin Rail Derby Eddie Andy Breeders Cup Pegasus Turf California Oakland Second Division America