39 Burst results for "Xi Jinping"
The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated
Hugh and Trump Discuss the Stability of Xi Jinping in Office
"Go to Xi Jinping in China. There's a story today that he was rebuked by the elders of China at their annual summer gathering. Do you believe he's in any danger of losing his dictatorship? No, I know very well he's in no danger whatsoever. The people that suggested it will probably be executed within the next 24 hours. Right, Vivek likes to say he will get Putin to leave Xi behind. What do you make of Vivek saying that? It would have never happened. I'll tell you this, Ukraine is so sad every time I turn it on. That was a war that I knew it was the apple of Putin's eye. He would have never done it if the election weren't rigged, our election. It was rigged and stolen. If that election wasn't rigged, if I were president, you would right now have millions of people living that were dead. You would have cities that would be flourishing and they'd be up and they'd be in Ukraine. Those beautiful gold, everything else that have been reduced to rubble. Like, I mean, take a look at these cities. It was like demolition crews just went through. There's not a building standing. And then they say two people were injured. I'll tell you the biggest surprise. They tell you how many people were killed because the numbers are staggering. So, but when Vivek says he can talk Putin out of this and break the alliance between Putin and Xi, what does Donald Trump think about that? Well, I can do that very easily. And I did that for four years. They were not close with me. And I was close to both of them. And then when COVID came in, I said, that's a ship too far as far as Xi is concerned.
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Fresh update on "xi jinping" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
"Bar Basis US two point stock at of futures 552, 278. also down. the And the sectors although we NASDAQ saw are big futures a in dollar dropping the significant spot red index more run this than -up is in morning. half the stronger of long market a 1 -dated Only healthcare moves 10th % this let's of 1 and morning. get % insurance to yields this our 10 top seeing morning, -year stories Treasury Anna. some and yields very we start small down with China. Okay, so a The troubled Chinese property developer Evergrande says its mainland unit has defaulted on a 4 billion yuan or 547 million dollar onshore bond. The default comes as reports emerged that a former CEO and CFO at the company have been detained by Chinese authorities. Bloomberg's loans and bonds reporter Loretta Chen has the details. The local media testing which is a reputable media in mainland China reported last night that the ex -CFO and CEO of Evergrande Group were detained by police and these are the people who used to be right -hand men of Huikao Yan, the founder going to finish all these unfinished projects while its chief executives are detained. Loretta Chen says the detentions add another layer of uncertainty to Evergrande's debt restructuring plan. An ex of shares in Chinese property companies slumped on Monday after Evergrande cancelled a meeting with creditors. The crisis at China Evergrande then this morning. Meanwhile the EU's chief trade negotiator says that Beijing's failure to condemn Russia's war in Ukraine is damaging China's investment policies. Wrapping up a high stakes trip to the world's second largest economy, Valdis Dombrovskis issued this clear attack on President Xi Jinping's foreign policy. China's position is affecting the face image not only with European consumers but also with businesses. Over a of third EU companies in this country have indicated that China's position on the war is making it a active investment destination. China's response and its contribution to resolving the war is a way that is important for us to engage. Dombrovskis' trip to China comes after the EU announced a probe into China's electric car subsidies. The move has increased tensions between Brussels and Beijing, with the most significant risk being a damaging trade war. The CEOs of two of Wall Street's biggest banks have been weighing in on growth and rates. Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon says he expects the Fed to hike further and the US economy to cool. Here's what he told the American Energy Security Summit. I think it's going to be hard to get inflation back to the target, probably and that means if inflation is sticky we will see additional interest rate increases and ultimately that that probably does lead to a little bit more of a slowdown in the economy. Whether that's a recession or it's just a slowdown, you know it's hard to say, but it would be unprecedented to go through this type of a tightening cycle and not see us get to a little bit of slower economic growth than what we're seeing right now. The comments from Solomon come as JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he's not sure if the world is prepared for 7 % rates. Speaking to the Times of India, Dimon said that going to that level would be much more painful than getting to 5%. President Joe Biden is stepping further into the auto industry labour dispute in a highly unusual move even for Democratic a president. Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story. Biden travels to the Detroit area today to join workers on the UAW picket line, White House spokeswoman Corrine Jean -Pierre. He is the most pro -union president in modern times and says the message is clear. This is the president that's made very, very clear that he believes that corporate profits should lead to a record UAW contract. Now Donald Trump visits Michigan on Wednesday as a two battle for the blue collar vote. I'm Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio. The London Stock Exchange CEO Julia Hoggart says UK firms risk the market by listing in America. The LSE boss told a conference that international companies underperform US domestic companies in their stock market. She noted that out of 23 British firms that have raised over $100 million in US the over the past decade, six have delisted and 13 are now trading down. Only four trading above their initial value. Now Rishi Sunak is under pressure to say whether HS2 will not confirmed reports that the Birmingham to Manchester section will be scrapped. The former chairman of up until 2021 Alan Cook told the Bloomberg UK politics podcast that the government is end up ignoring the long term benefits of the plan. There has to be a much more consistent the London Stock programs. If we constantly move away from one position to another to another position, it damages our reputation. It the damages way that we actually look at things and actually when we're trying to recruit the very, very best people that we need in the them. It makes them very concerned. Alan Cook is currently chairman of the high value manufacturing sport. catapult. You could hear that full interview on the Bloomberg UK politics podcast. Meanwhile, the FT says that the new US Yes, owners of Birmingham City Football Club have written to the prime minister with a similar warning that he will damage trust in the UK if he scraps the HS two rail project. Now the Citadel founder Ken Griffin is said to be in talks to join a group of investors bidding to take over the Telegraph media group. Various media reports say Griffin could financial provide backing to a consortium led by fellow hedge fund manager Paul Marshall. That's ahead of an auction for the newspaper set to begin in the coming weeks. Bloomberg understands that Griffin would only invest in such an effort personally and not through his company. Those are a few of our top stories for you today on the markets right now. US stock 600 by down half of 1%, S &P 500 Imini futures also declining half of 1 % and Treasury yields 10 -year yields trading at 4 .52 % down a basis point. Okay let's get to the crisis in China and specifically at China Evergrande Group. Its deepening did deepen over the last 24 hours after the company's mainland unit said it failed to repay an onshore bond. The poster child for China's property woes scrapped key creditor meetings at the last minute. Joining us now to discuss is John Liu managing editor for Greater China at Bloomberg. Thanks so much John for joining us. Before there were other issues in property there was China Evergrande. It is, as I mentioned, the sort of poster child for this sector difficulties it's got into. How did the defaults come about then? How come to pass? Well, the company, as you say rightly, has been in trouble for quite a while. They first defaulted on debt back in 2021. And so the fact that they've defaulted on this 4 billion yuan onshore bond, I think is significant. And it shows that the crisis, troubles continue. But at the same time, given how many bonds and how much debt the company has already has failed to pay. It's not that surprising. I think what has really hit sentiment overnight is that poured about the arrest of the ex -CEO and the ex -CFO, the question now is, what is the government up to? Is the government position on how it's going to execute the unwind of this company? Has that changed? And that's causing a lot of uncertainty. Yeah, absolutely. Also, what does it mean in terms of spillover? Could China's property crisis flare up more significantly elsewhere, i .e., what's the contagion risk? So I think the issue right now, we are about to head into a week -long holiday. It's called Golden Week here in China. It is prime time for real estate sales. Every year in the fall, September, October, this is when the vast majority of homes, apartments, property are sold. It has been a period the government's been looking at hoping the market will rebound this October. But with all these bad headlines about Evergrande, about Country Garden, about other developers. There is a real concern shown that that's going to result in the home buyers continuing to sit on the sideline, and that could indeed result in other developers running into trouble because they can't sell their apartments. We were covering earlier John that we've seen local media reporting that the former CEO and CFO of Evergrande are being pained. What does this tell us about where investigations have got to? I think that the concern here is that the government is starting to take steps to execute on that ultimate reckoning of what happened at this and company who caused it. And if that's happening then the worry is that it's going precipitate to really and unwind. That will make it much harder for the creditors to get the money that they're owed. Priority number one for the government Evergrande has sold a bunch of apartments to people that they have not yet built and they have not delivered.
The Breakdown
A highlight from Markets Shrug Off Predictable Powell at Jackson Hole
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, N .L .W. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Friday, August 25th, and today we are doing a macro roundup. Before we get into that, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. Well, friends, today, the big thing, of course, is Jackson Hole and Powell's speech therein. And so I thought it would be good to put that in a wrapper of the stories that have been going on around and outside of the industry, things that have been impacting traditional markets to put that news of what Powell said in its proper context. And for that, I want to start with a story that those of you who have been listening to the AI Breakdown will be quite familiar with. That is, of course, Nvidia. Nvidia absolutely blew earnings out of the water after the market closed on Wednesday. Their Q2 net income came in at a staggering 6 .7 billion, which was a 422 % increase from the same quarter last year. Sales growth shot up by 171 % on an annualized basis to reach 13 .51 billion. Profit came in at 270 per share. Now, compared to analysts' estimates, those figures represented a 30 % beat on profits per share and a 22 % beat on sales. That is massive, especially considering how much hype and anticipation Nvidia had going into this. Now, overnight on Wednesday, shares rocketed up over 6 % and hit a high point of $517 per share. That pushed the stock up more than 220 % on the year. The company also announced the approval of a ridiculously large $25 billion in buybacks, representing a little over 2 % of the total market cap at current prices. Now, this is the second quarter in a row with blowout earnings for Nvidia. Q1 sales came in at 10 .3 billion, outperforming analysts' estimates by almost 30 % again. During their Q1 report, Nvidia had guided 11 billion in revenue for Q2, which was an estimate that exceeded analysts' forecasts by over 50%. And it turns out even that was far too conservative. Now, of course, Nvidia's success has been coupled to the rise of AI. The firm's H100 GPU is the top of the line in AI computing, and it's not particularly close. Individual units range in price between $25 ,000 and $30 ,000 with a volume discount, but that isn't even really the highest end product being demanded by the world's largest tech firms. That distinction goes to the HGX box, which is essentially eight H100s assembled into a single unit of raw AI computing power. Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang said of the product line, We call it H100 as if it's a chip that comes off of a fab, but H100s go out really as HGX to the HGX unit's require a supply chain of 35 ,000 parts to put together and are sold at the lofty price tag of $299 ,999 per unit. And even at that price, Nvidia are struggling to keep up. Huang said, We're not shipping close to demand. Now, in a lot of ways, there really has not been anything like this phenomenon in recent memory. Nvidia has built their firm around the transition away from GPUs as just being used for graphics processing and video games to focus on more generalized use cases for that style of chip architecture. That transition started many years ago. For example, in 2012, researchers used Nvidia chips to achieve previously unheard of image recognition. Since then, the firm began working alongside AI researchers to optimize their chips for the tasks demanded by high -end AI models. They took on an explicit AI focus starting around 2017. That process of iteration has led to Nvidia being the singular leader in AI chips with a wide gap between them and their nearest competitor. During a recent interview, Huang said, This type of computing doesn't allow for you to just build a chip and customers use it. You've got to build the whole data center. And indeed, the customers seem perfectly willing to spend the high -end dollars for premium performance. One high -profile startup, for example Inflection AI, recently raised $1 .3 billion in funding to finance the purchase of 22 ,000 H100 chips. Mustafa Suleiman, the CEO at Inflection and previous co -founder at Google DeepMind, said that none of Nvidia's competitors could offer a comparable solution. Huang broke down the math of his company's product offering like this. He said, If you can reduce the time of training to half on a $5 billion data center, the savings is more than the cost of all the chips. We are the lowest cost solution in the world. This year, Meta has committed to spending $30 billion on data centers, with much of that capital likely to be spent with Nvidia as just one example. Now, Huang was not at all bashful on this week's earnings call, stating that a new computing era has begun. Many others agreed with him. Dan Ives from Wedbush called it a 1995 internet moment and said it was the guidance heard around the world. Indeed, so far this year, the market has been responding as if a paradigm -shifting technology change is underway. Nvidia is by far the best performer in the S &P 500, and alongside Nvidia, six other big tech firms have been benefiting from the AI enthusiasm as well. This includes Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, which is Google, Microsoft, and Tesla. Together, this group, which has now become known as the Magnificent Seven, have outperformed the S &P 500 over the past year. Historically speaking, this narrow range of market breadth is typically only seen in the wake of a massive market downturn, and even then only briefly. The only really comparable era of the last decade when market breadth had maintained such a lopsided slate for so long was in the second half of 2020. During that period, both Etsy and Tesla were added to returns respectively. The rest of the top performers that year were rounded out by L Brands, PayPal, and of course, Nvidia. As another comparison point, so far this year, the median S &P 500 company is up only 2 .34 % compared to the 16 % returns for the overall index. What's more, 228 companies in the index have seen their share price decline year to date. Now, the high -flying Nasdaq 100 index is a little bit more evenly spread. The index saw the best first half returns in its 52 -year history this year, notching up a 30 % gain. 32 firms are outperforming the index this year so far, while the bottom quarter declined in price. Now, these periods of narrow returns don't typically precede a major market correction. However, this situation is somewhat unique. It's rare that multiple companies across a leading sector are so reliant on a single company to supply a critical component. But that's a situation we find ourselves in right now. Now, part of why this matters, of course, is that, as you just heard numbers around, AI has effectively been keeping markets afloat this year. One of the most dramatic moments of this was during the battle around the US debt ceiling. This is a time that the market should have been, by all accounts, incredibly nervous, significantly wobbly. I mean, hell, we had our debt downgraded when all was said and done. But it couldn't beat out Nvidia and AI enthusiasm. Now, that wasn't exactly the case yesterday. A lot of the reporting on Thursday was about how concerns over what Jerome Powell would say at Jackson Hole on Friday were tamping down any particular bump from that Nvidia earnings beat. You'll remember that the annual Jackson Hole Symposium is a big central bankers event that focuses on the long term of monetary policy. It's a chance for the Fed to signal where things are going more than just in the next couple months. At least that's what it's historically been. Last year, it was notable because at the last minute, Powell decided to rip up his speech and give a terse eight minute diatribe that basically said that markets were getting way out ahead of themselves, effectively ending a late summer rally. Powell said at the time in no uncertain terms that the inflation fight was not over and stated explicitly that, quote, there will be pain. Now, coming into this, Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said there's no way Powell's speech can be that tight and clear this time because the economic outlook is genuinely more uncertain. Central bank decision making in some sense is easier when you have policy wrong and you have a long way to go to where you should be. It's more difficult when you have to sort through being close to the right policy, but not sure you're there and that's where the Fed is now. And so a year later, the inflation fight is still underway and it was anticipated that Powell would use his appearance to reinforce the Fed's commitment to finishing the job. Up until now, the policy choices have frankly been somewhat obvious. Continue raising interest rates until inflation cools or something breaks. And even when something breaks, try to fix it without changing interest rate policy and see if that works. However, with inflation now moderating to its lowest level in almost two years, there is a lot more potential for disagreement among FOMC members. Powell was expected to give his views on whether rates should continue to go higher into the end of the year, as well as to sketch out how the Fed would determine when the time would come for rate cuts. Forecasts from Fed members have generally called for rates to be held higher for longer, but with pressure on the banking sector, it's unclear whether policymakers would be on board with sticking to that strategy. Now, as well as the rumors of dissent among FOMC members, the economic establishment is beginning to question whether the inflation fight is even worth taking all the way to its conclusion. Responding to a Wall Street Journal article published on Monday, Paul Krugman tweeted, I agree with Jason Furman's call for a 3 % inflation target. The rationale for 2 % has been overtaken by a couple decades of experience. So if you think 3 % is the right target, shouldn't we be declaring victory? Or to put it a different way, if 2 % was a mistake, how many people should lose their jobs for a mistake? Now, Yuga Kohler, senior staff engineer at Coinbase, captured much of the sentiment in the crypto space when they wrote, the difference between a 2 % and a 3 % inflation rate over the course of 75 years is literally 100%. Raising the target is a sleight of hand to inflate away national debt. Stephen Geiger, an economics commentator and Paul Volcker fan, said, or, and stick with me here, we keep it at 2 % and the Fed and federal government can just do their job. So what did we actually get? Well, in this case, it was much what we expected. Bloomberg's headline reads, Powell signals Fed will raise rates if needed, keep them high. The Wall Street Journal writes, Powell, Fed will proceed carefully on any rate rises. And as per Bloomberg, the key takeaways were that 1. Powell acknowledged that the economic backdrop is better than it was a year ago, but he said that the Fed stands ready and willing to raise interest rates further if they need to. 2. He continued to focus that everything going forward will be data driven, but he did not put the possibility of cuts on the agenda, saying based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or instead to hold the policy rate constant and await further data. Third, Bloomberg says the comments are consistent with expectations that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting with the possibility of another rate hike later in the year. Fourth, Powell acknowledged that interest rates are now high enough to be restrictive, meaning that they are weighing down on growth and inflation. And finally, Powell said 2 % is and will remain our inflation target, throwing some damp water on that part of the conversation. Nick Timiros from the Wall Street Journal, widely viewed as the Fed whisperer, called it a risk management speech. He quoted Powell as saying, given how far we have come at upcoming meetings, we are in a position to proceed carefully. The Kobayisi letter pointed out some data from bond traders around what their predictions are. They write, odds of a 25 basis point rate hike in September more than doubled, 21 .5 % after Powell's speech. Odds of an additional rate hike this year just hit a two -month high of 52 .1%. Rate cuts are now not expected to begin until June 2024. Doug Bonaparte hit it out of the park again with another great headline. Breaking! Stocks fall as Fed Chair Powell signals he's willing to destroy the economy. But in point of fact, stocks are actually leveling out and even going up slightly, based I think on expectations being met. So all in all, a much less dramatic speech than last year, and frankly just a real continuation of what we've gotten from Powell for the last two years. Blockworks Jack Farley wrote, Powell chooses to close his speech with Paul Volcker's phrase, we'll keep at it for the second year in a row. And that is pretty much the story. Now the last interesting thing that I wanted to point out for this week just by way of closing is that the three -day BRICS summit came to a close on Thursday in South Africa with news that six new members would join the loose economic bloc. Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have committed to join in January. This adds to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — there's BRICS — bringing the ranks of membership up to 11. President Xi Jinping called the expansion historic and said it would be a new starting point for BRICS cooperation. Still, while the addition of new nations to the Economic Cooperation Group does add strength, the announcement falls far short of the hype that we had seen coming into it. There had been rampant speculation this year that the group would unveil a common trade currency backed by gold, which frankly rumors of a BRICS currency have been persistent for over a decade but have so far never materialized. So all in all, the world continues to be interesting but doesn't look all that different than it did heading into the week. AI is up, inflation is down, interest rates are flat, but maybe up. And so, as so often has been the case for the last few months, the best thing to do is go touch grass. Until next time, be safe and take care of each other.
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Fresh update on "xi jinping" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
"Developer Evergrande says its mainland unit has defaulted on a 4 billion yuan or 547 million dollar onshore bond the default comes as reports emerge that the former CEO and CFO at the company have been Chinese Bloomberg's authorities loans and bonds reporter Loretta Chen has the details the local media testing which is a reputable media in mainland China reported last night that the ex CFO and CEO of Evergrande group were detained by police and these are the people who used to be right -hand men of Huikao Yan the founder of Evergrande so this is quite significant in of the terms destiny of this company you know whether it's going to finish all these unfinished projects while its chief executives are detained Loretta Chen says the detentions add a layer of uncertainty to Evergrande debt restructuring plan an index of shares in Chinese property companies slumped on Monday after Evergrande canceled meetings with its creditors the EU's chief negotiator says Beijing's failure to condemn Russia's war in Ukraine was damaging China's investment opportunities. wrapping wrapping up a high stakes trip to the world's second largest economy Valdis Dombrovskis issued this clear attack on Xi Jinping's foreign policy China's position is affecting the country's image not only with European consumers but also with businesses. Over a third of EU companies in this country have indicated that China's position on the war is making it a less China's important destination response and its contribution to resolving the war is a way that is important for us to engage. Dombrovskis' trip to the country comes after the EU announced a probe into China's electric car subsidies the increased move has tensions between Brussels and Beijing with the most significant risk being a damaging trade war. The CEOs of two wall streets of biggest banks have been weighing in on the growth of rates. Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon says he expects the Fed to hike further in the US economy to cool. Here's what he told the G -Security summit. I think it's going to be hard to get inflation back to the target and that probably means if inflation is sticky we will see additional interest rate increases and ultimately that probably does lead to a little bit more of a slowdown in the economy. Whether that's a recession or it's just a slowdown you know it's hard to say but it would be unprecedented to go through this type of a tightening cycle and not see us get little to a bit of slower economic growth than what we're seeing right now. The comments from Solomon come as JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he is not sure if the world is prepared for 7 % rates. Speaking to the Times of India, Dimon said that going to that level would be much more painful than getting to 5%. US President Joe Biden is stepping further into the auto industry labor dispute in a highly an unusual move even for a democratic president Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story. Biden travels to the Detroit area today to join workers on the UAW picket line. White House spokeswoman Corrine Jean -Pierre and and says the message is clear This is a president that's made very very clear that he believes that corporate profits should lead to a record UAW contract. Now Donald Trump visits Michigan on Wednesday as a battle two for the blue -collar vote. I'm Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio. The London President and Stock Exchange CEO Julia Hoggatt says UK firms risk their market value by listing in The LSE boss told a conference that international companies US domestic companies in their stock market. She noted that out of the 23 British firms have raised over a hundred million dollars in the US over the past decade. Six have delisted and 13 are trading down. Only four are trading above their initial value. Prime The Minister Rishi Sunak is under pressure to say whether HS2 will go ahead in full. It's understood that Prime the Minister is concerned by the cost of the rail project but he has not confirmed reports that the Birmingham to Manchester section will be scrapped. The former chairman of HS2 until 2021 Alan Cook told Bloomberg's UK politics podcast that the government is ignoring the long term benefits of the plan. There has to be a much more consistent and concerted view from the government about the long term programs. If we constantly move away from one position to another to another position. It damages our reputation. It the government. We actually look at things and actually when we're trying to recruit the makes them very concerned. Alan Cook The UK football club have written to the Prime Minister with a similar warning that he will damage trust in the UK if he scraps us to rail project. And Citadel founder Ken Griffin is said to be in talks to join a group of investors bidding to take over the Telegraph media group. Various media reports say Griffin could provide financial backing to the consortium led by fellow hedge fund manager Paul Marshall. Action for the newspaper set to begin in the coming weeks. Bloomberg understands that Griffin would only invest in such effort an personally and not through his company. Those are your top stories on the programme. On the markets, the stock's 600 is down six tenths of 1%, the 4100 is three tenths lower and on Wall Street S &P mini futures are two thirds of 1 % lower. Valerie are you a fancy dining person or you food are a course before the pandemic? I really was. Yeah, now it just takes a long time. I don't know if I can be bothered. You know those fancy restaurants, you're there for three hours, you get late, home you know. Okay, fair enough. Well look, for anyone else that is still interested in eating, maybe this will reinvigorate your interest in it. Cake Raider, our food editor, has a fantastic list of the 13 new restaurants in London that you have to eat in. Japanese focus running through it as well. There's got the sushi master known as Asa opening his first UK restaurant in Harrods Food Halls, in case you fancy a trip to Knightsbridge. But also, she has just pointed out the Wolsley's opening a new dining room in the city on King William Street. It's not very far away from where we are here on Bloomberg's headquarters, but great options if you decide to dip your toe back into the eating Marcus? out market. I did read this article and the one thing that did stand out to me is the amount of visitors expected in the UK versus last year, bringing in almost another an additional billion dollars in revenue to the additional visitors in 2022. Stronger dollar and weaker pound I'm sure are going to encourage them. over Marcus here. Watch out as well. Well, let's get more now on one of our top stories this morning. It's at the Evergrande Group, the troubled Chinese property developer. We've had the mainland unit of the company saying that it failed to meet payments on an onshore bond. The poster child for China's property woes scrapped key creditor meetings at the last minute that were scheduled for Monday, sending its shares tumbling. And there's something again today in Hong Kong down 5 percent. Our China credit editor Kevin Kingsbury is with us for more on the story. Kevin, Hong for Evergrande. So Steve, they've missed principal payment due Monday on a 4 billion yuan putable bond that meant that creditors could demand early repayment on it. It missed the principal, or excuse me, an interest payment six months ago. So this is the second time that they've missed interest on this, with principal also Monday. due on It's the second bond that Evergrande has not paid as far as onshore. We've obviously been talking so much about the offshore debt, but they've been largely either keeping current onshore debt or being able to extend it. So not being able to do so in this case does raise even more red flags about Evergrande and its ability to deal with its debt load. What went wrong in this example of Evergrande? It's hard to know because we would think that because of the extensions that we had previously that they would be able to get this extension done again. But it did not happen here, and it kind of goes along with what exactly has happened with the offshore debt plan. And things had seemed to be going along until a month ago when the creditor votes were first delayed. obviously And then we over the weekend we had this vote scrapped and Evergrande saying that it's got to go back and kind of redo its debt restructuring plan in light of falling sales in recent months along with the slump in its shares as well as its property management unit and its electric vehicle units since they've resumed trading over
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 19:00 08-22-2023 19:00
"Wind in a messy way but you don't know when and one of the other points that I that I'd noted in a piece I wrote a couple weeks ago was you know we're all looking at this 210 inversion and we're noticing now that with 10 -year yields rising the inversion is going away but the recessions start after the yield after the inversion is gone so that's another warning sign. See something they're talking to our very own Abigail Doolittle. Of course, Fred Powell, the Fred Chair speaks on Friday. This is Bloomberg. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Wednesday August 23rd in Hong Kong. Tuesday August 22nd in New York coming up this hour. S &P Global Ratings joins Moody's in cutting US banks ratings. Microsoft may get a new chance in its takeover of Activision Blizzard. China's president Xi Jinping calls on South Africa to boost influence on global affairs. US Japan and South Korea prepare for North Korea satellite launch. Donald Trump's inner circle surrendering in Georgia. Hong Kong fights back against Japan's Fukushima wastewater release. I'm Ed Baxter with global news. Has PSG offered Mbappe to Madrid for 250 million euros? I'm Dan Schwartzman. I'll have that story more coming up in Bloomberg Sports. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. On Bloomberg 1130 New York. Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington DC. Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston. Bloomberg 960 San Francisco. Sirius XM 119 and around the world on the Bloomberg Business app. So we're about an hour away from trading in Tokyo Sydney and in Seoul.
BTV Simulcast
Fresh update on "xi jinping" discussed on BTV Simulcast
"Treasury yields at the long -ending multi -year highs amid expectations the Reserve Federal will be holding interest rates high for some time that momentum bleeding into Asia with Australian New Zealand bonds are also declining. The European Union trade negotiator attacks China's foreign policy saying its stance on Ukraine is hurting trade. China urging the block to show restraint in its probe on the EV sector. China's property developers including China grand it's undercutting Xi Jinping's a push to end the housing crisis just as China enters a key holiday sales season and Saudi's IPO scene springing back to life with car rental firm Lumi soaring on his debut while a cargo firm's office sells out within hours of opening its books. 830 in the morning across the Emirates half past noon right here in Hong Kong I'm Rishad Let's go to the market action we have at the moment greater China markets close with a lunch break but certainly we've just been just seeing traffic going in one direction and that is pushing stocks to the downside the dollar to the up and we've got oil prices taking a pause for the time being looking here first of all Brent crude 92 bucks and 91 cents a barrel that as we see this impact of a rapidly tightening market that is perhaps been offset to somewhat by some of the gains that we've been seeing for the dollar of course because it is priced at dollars accrued becomes more expensive for many buyers so perhaps we're just having a little bit of a pause was on the contention that oil is marching towards $100 a barrel otherwise prospects of the trading day look weak for Europe and the US it's a early doors yet as far S as the &P goes in that yield as we've been saying on the 10 -year up to levels we haven't seen since October also 2007 Moody's of course suggesting there are risks in the near term here as well as that looming government shut down at will uh... perhaps also cause more uncertainty it's not helping the treasury market that's one thing for sure right uh... let's check in with that it will hold is in she's Singapore having a look at markets and uh... what do you see right now and unit is that any kind of a move perhaps that we might be pairing some of these losses doesn't quite quite look like it i mean you talk about that pain in the treasury market that's kinda filtered through into the asia fake and we are seeing those yields higher in australia and zealand japan as well little bit a of the momentum carrying through and it's not just because of how investors are eating their interest rate expectations if you take a look at the chinese stock market and what we've seen on the region's benchmark headed for another day of losses that ever grand crisis deepening is really affecting sentiment and now we're hearing about how it has since missed bond payment uh... reportedly former executives have been detained so raising those fears about potential liquidation what is this going to mean for the broader chinese economy we saw already yesterday that gauge of chinese property developers dropping by the most in nine months slipping further still today so still all these key questions surrounding the real estate sector in the asian giant i was playing playing out there with the currencies that has affected the army saluti i mean if you take a look at what we're seeing on the you and is really being delivered a one -two punch from the deepening real estate crisis as well as the strength in the u s dollar and we're actually seeing how the onshore yuan is declining hovering towards the weak length or the weak side of its daily trading limit and worth noting here we actually saw the pboc deliver yet another stronger than expected fix this one another record but that that seems uh not to be helping very much on the currency hovering at 7 30 so it's not just affecting the stock markets our sentiment overall but the currencies as well uh these rich property crisis everyone there for us in singapore uh let's now turn to some of the stories that we're covering as far as the middle east goes and we've got arabia's saudi ambassador to the palestinians due to make his first trip to the west bank this week uh this is really off the back broker a deal between israel and uh... the kingdom bloomberg said christine burke is in riyadh with the details intel is a little bit more here so good morning as it's good to see you we are keeping a close eye on these talks in the west bank because these do appear to be part of efforts uh... by the kingdom to get this deal to normalize relations with israel done so we know that as part of any deal with israel israel will need to offer concessions to the palestinian people so presumably that is what these discussions are about so what we know is that saudi arabia's first ever ambassador to the palestinian people will be in the west bank today and tomorrow he'll present his credentials to the palestinian authority and then he'll meet with palestinian president we reported recently that the palestinian authorities have a number of requests uh... in terms of the concessions they want to see as part of any deal that may eventually happen with israel those concessions include financing from saudi arabia and also full membership to the united nations so it's likely those topics that will be on the table for discussion today as saudi arabia really tries figure to out what needs to get done in order to get this deal with israel over the line yeah and stay with saudi uh... closer step i suppose to having a nuclear power yeah that's right so let me first to say that this is a story that's not unrelated to what we're talking about here so as part of a u s brokered saudi israel deal there are kind of three key things that need to happen first the u s needs to offer security guarantees to both israel and saudi arabia israel of course then it needs to offer those concessions to the palestinian and then the third component is that saudi arabia wants america's blessings to enrich your radium so that it can build nuclear power plants here at home in the kingdom so presumably what we're talking about here relates to the latter part of that equation what we heard yesterday is that saudi arabia will allow international atomic inspectors more access to allow them to monitor what's going on here in the kingdom that will also allow the i .e .a to have more oversight of uranium supply globally now in the past the kingdom has not been particularly transparent when it comes to its nuclear activity so this is a significant step and it'll probably go a long way with the united states because of course if saudi arabia is saying that the international atomic watchdog could come into the country and monitor activities then the u .s may be a little bit more comfortable with granting any nuclear permissions to saudi kusen now it's just a shift down to egypt officially announcing that it will be holding early presidential elections but you know when is this vote and people are talking about a potential pound egyptian pound devaluation and we've seen this currency in the last what 18 months being devalued three times and fact in it's that uh... worth about half as much as it was eighteen months yeah so let's start first with what we know about the vote so egypt did announce yesterday officially that it will hold the presidential election in the country from december tenth to december twelfth it was widely expected that we were going to see elections go ahead in 2024 so it is earlier than anticipated uh... in terms of who's running president lcc has not yet officially announced but he is widely expected to and he's also widely expected to win uh... if that is indeed the case then that show of public support will probably give him a little bit more or room to maneuver in terms of implementing economic reforms that are required in order at the IMF lcc has also been pushing ahead with big infrastructure spending that has drawn a lot of criticism at home so it may give him room to expand there now in terms of the economy and that on devaluation you're talking about monica malik al -babbar commercial banks at that this early election uh... open will the open door to progressing with economic reform sooner but that anything substantial on the economy and with any pound devaluation won't happen until after this election this is a this is a great stuff christine burke there first in a real uh... this is a look at that anymore to come including uh... you bs and uh... how its integration of uh... credit swiss is going an exclusive into the other way this is good the the we used to take our freedom of movement for it's not just the people work for the airlines and it's natural to feel grateful for the things that kept you going does america have a chance to lose whose art advantage can we get to her community fast enough so that will be in good shape but really we were just doing our jobs oxford university is starting a study on patients who've recovered from called it bloomberg radio the bird business app in bloomberg radio dot com the world is listening what's difference the between
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 18:00 08-22-2023 18:00
"Is that what you were referring to, the Ben Emmons? No. Yeah. He sent me the note because we were talking about it. Saw it on the MLive blog as well. I mean, Jersey said in a blog, in Bloomberg, he's our interest rate guy and he said people were talking about Nvidia. Two hundred and what, 13 % so far this year? Yeah, that's right. I wish I could have owned that in January. Hindsight Capital. Oh, nicely done. That's John Authors. Doug Krasner, Daybreak Asia. It starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Wednesday, August 23rd in Hong Kong. Tuesday, August 22nd in New York. Coming up today, S &P Global Ratings joining Moody's in cutting U .S. bank ratings. Microsoft may get a new chance in its takeover of Activision Blizzard. Chinese President Xi Jinping calling on South Africa to boost its influence on global affairs. U .S., Japan and South Korea prepare for North Korea's satellite launch. Donald Trump's inner circle surrendering in Georgia. Hong Kong fights back against Japan's Fukushima waste water release. I'm Ed Baxter with Global News. Has PSG offered Mbappe to Madrid for 250 million euros? I'm Dan Schwartzman. I'll have that story and more coming up in Bloomberg Sports. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. On Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington, D .C., Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston, Bloomberg 960 San Francisco, Sirius XM 119 and around the world on BloombergRadio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. A little past 6 p .m. on Wall Street. Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. I'm Doug Krisner and the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers...
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
Fresh update on "xi jinping" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
"Here in Asia. Well on to the top stories now. Moody's investors service has signaled that its confidence is wavering ahead of a potential US government shutdown. It stopped short of threatening a downgrade, but it used unusually blunt language to express Moody's concerns over the looming shutdown. It said that it has or it has left its US rating change, but its latest report is a sign that debt sustainability and the politics surrounding it will continue to be a theme through the remainder of the year. Amazon is planning to invest as much as four billion dollars in AI startup Anthropic. As part of the deal, Anthropic will move most of its software Amazon's to web services data centers. It will use the cloud computing company's chips to train models that it uses to power up chatbots and other applications. Here's Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky. Anthropic will use AWS as its primary cloud provider for mission critical workloads including building foundational foundation models and doing AI safety research and will run the majority of its workloads on AWS. The deal is the latest move by Amazon to become a major player in the generative AI sector. Amazon is committing one and a quarter billion dollars for its initial investment and it will have position in the startup. Ford is halting construction of a three and a half billion dollar battery in plant Michigan. The plan drew scrutiny from Republican lawmakers for its ties to a Chinese battery maker. The plan was to license technology from China's contemporary Amperex technology. But some lawmakers accused the company of being affiliated with the Communist Party in China. A Ford spokesperson said that the company is pausing work now and will limit spending on construction for the moment. It's not clear if the political pressure is the reason for the halt. China and the EU reached a slew of agreements on on areas including macroeconomic policy as well as supply chain cooperation. However, China's Vice -Premier He Li -feng expressed strong concern and dissatisfaction over the EU's anti subsidy probe into Chinese electric vehicles. Here's He speaking to reporters. We hope that the EU would exercise caution and to continue to keep its market free and open. This benefits European consumers, benefits green and local development of Europe and the benefits global climate change cooperation. Later, after the comments or earlier on Monday, Dombrovskis had warned China that the EU would be more forceful full in upholding fair competition. Vice -Premier He also said that China is hoping that the EU cancel export on restrictions high tech goods. All right, we are coming up on 32 minutes past the hour. It's time for world news. South Korea is seeking to have Chinese president Xi Jinping visit for the first time in about a decade. And back to with global news in San Francisco, Ed. Yeah, that's right, Brian. This is Korea's aligned itself more strongly with the U .S., President Yun's office, saying it could be a turning point in Korea -China relations. Meanwhile, U .S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is praising South Korea amid growing concern over Russia -North Korea military cooperation. Blinken says, well, they're building a relationship between international and allies NATO. Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand are now regular and active participants in NATO meetings. As President Yun has said, European and Indo -Pacific security are now truly indivisible. Blinken says Putin's war in Ukraine has brought transatlantic and Indo Pacific closer than ever before. Now, when House Republicans return from their recess tomorrow, they'll be working
Crypto Banter
A highlight from Your U.S Dollars Are NOT SAFE! (Buy Bitcoin?) | BRICS Summit 2023
"All right, here we are back again 26 ,000 and we back below the 200 week moving average and the 200 day moving average. Now we haven't been there since January and we don't really want to be spending a long time under this this level. But under this level, there has been a buyer and that buyer has accumulated a large amount of Bitcoin have accumulated over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin. And there is speculation that that buyer may be linked to BlackRock somehow we're going to explore that today. Also, as I said, you don't miss this. And then the last thing that I want to talk about is I want to talk about BRICS because we're here in South Africa. You've got world leaders that have arrived here in South Africa. This is Xi Jinping. I can't believe it. He's arrived in South Africa crazy, but he's here. So he's here. We're going to talk about BRICS because there's a lot coming out of BRICS. You know, there's the BRICS summit happening in South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa all meeting here among things they're discussing is potentially a new currency that's going to that's going to disrupt the dollar. They're talking about A .I., they're talking about military cooperation and talking about growth of these nations. So we're going to we're going to cover the BRICS summit and what it actually means for the U .S. dollar and what it actually means for Bitcoin. So it's going to be a big show. And I know a lot of you in the in the comments are asking, so let's do it. Time to wake up, bitch, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up, get up. All right. Welcome back. Wakey wakey. Rise and shine. Here we are again. Hold on. Can you guys hear me? Here we go. Let me turn up my levels a little bit. Wakey wakey, rise and shine. Let's look at what's happening on the markets. Let's get a quick look. Looking at the bubbles. If I look at the bubbles in today, I see SUI up five point one percent. We're going to talk about curve and why curves going down, because remember that the founder of curve actually sold a whole lot of tokens OTC to avoid getting liquidated. Now the price of curve is actually coming very close to his liquidation price. So the question is, is he going to get liquidated? Otherwise the majority of the bubbles are red. By the way, if you are using the bubbles, we've introduced an amazing, amazing, amazing feature. I want to show you. So when sometimes you look at the bubbles, you can't find the bubble that you're looking for. Like, for example, now, if I'm holding Solana and I want to know what's happening on Solana, you see, I can't really see Solana or at least I can't see it. If you go to the search, though, and you press S O L, what you can see is Solana starts flashing for us. We've introduced that search functionality. And if you are looking for a token that's not in the top one hundred, say, for example, looking at Unibot and it's not in the top one hundred bang, it just pops up here so you can see your favorite tokens. So we've introduced that functionality into the banter bubbles. Also, if you don't if you're not joining our morning research call, you should join or you do click on this newsroom, press add to calendar and then tomorrow when we have our banter research group call where we have all our analysts on one call, you can join and you can actually listen to call. And I don't know if you guys have been listening in the call. If you have, let us know in the comments, because I think those calls are amazing. It gives you a real taste of what life is like at banter. So, you know, really like you hear everything, you hear how we plan, you hear you hear everything. And I know a lot of you have actually been in the in that thing, got a big show today. I want to talk about BRICS and I want to talk about de -dollarization. And I don't think de -dollarization is going to happen today or next week or next month. But it's important that we understand how powerful BRICS is. And what you'll see is you'll see it. The Western media aren't really going to cover BRICS. And so you may not know exactly what's happening at BRICS, because it's not in their best interest to cover BRICS. It's almost like, why would you cover the BRICS summit if it specifically excludes the UK, excludes Europe, excludes the US? So you'll see the Western media ain't going to cover it, but we're going to bring you coverage of BRICS and everything that's going on there. Also, I want to talk about this US Treasury yield, because if it keeps rising, we're getting back to the same levels as 2017. And if we do get back to the same level, sorry, 2007. And after 2007, when it got to those levels, that is when Lehman Brothers collapsed and Bear Stearns collapsed and we had the whole housing market collapse. The question is, can that happen now? That's what we want to talk about today. And are you safe and should you maybe be in Bitcoin? And then I want to talk about this buyer of Bitcoin, because there is a new buyer of Bitcoin on the market buying a hell of a lot of Bitcoin, three billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. We're going to investigate that and see whether that could be BlackRock. So huge show. So what I need you to do, subscribe if you're not already subscribed. We are growing very, very, very fast. Thanks to you guys. The fam. Tell me you're present. So Scott Days, let me know if you're present. Ruggie, let me know if you're present. Maven, if you're present. Mark Davies, Frank, all of you, let me know if you're present. Just say, yeah, present, subscribe. Let's have some fun. Let's talk about what's going on in the markets.
The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated
A highlight from Chairman Gallagher on What Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum Should Ask the GOP Candidates About Xi and CCP
"We're proud to announce our brand new ACLJ Life and Liberty Drive. Our legal teams will be focusing on the issues that you, our ACLJ members, have told us matter the most to you, life and religious liberty. Join the ACLJ in the fight to keep America free. Welcome to today's podcast, sponsored by Hillsdale College, all things Hillsdale, Hillsdale dot edu. I encourage you to take advantage of the many free online courses there. And of course, a listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them at Q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google Apple, iTunes and Hillsdale. Morning Glory America Bonjour. Hi, Canada. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Tomorrow night, eight Republicans will meet on the stage in Milwaukee for a debate. I am certain that China will come up the Chinese Communist Party, but I'm not sure how. Brett Baer, of course, coming up later in the program. Martha McCollum, two superb professionals, the equal of anyone else in our business, will be asking the question. But I thought I would talk it through with the chairman of the House Select Committee on Engagement with the Chinese Communist Party. Mike Gallagher, congressman. Good morning. Great to have you. Thank you for joining me. It is great to be with you, Hugh. We're going to come back around to this kind of war, which I finished last night on the recommendation of you. It is a remarkable book. And I had no idea how awful the chai comms were to our American prisoners. I just I didn't know. Did you know that before? Did the Marines teach you that when you were in the Marines? No, there's there's two things that I think, well, a lot of actually our modern thinking about how to prepare people for when they get captured. Think survival of Asian resistance and escape school, which I attended when I was in the Marine Corps actually comes out of the experience of the Korean War, particularly some politically sensitive moments when a few American captives refused actually to go home. There was, of course, this controversy during that time period post Korean War in the 50s about this idea of brainwashing. This is prominently expressed in the fictional book The Manchurian Candidate, which became a major American movie. But a lot of our thinking about how to better prepare pilots in particular because they get shot down for resisting in captivity actually comes out of that period. Well, a couple of takeaways I'll never forget. There are no Turks died in the camps. The Turks are the toughest people in the world, and none of them died in the Chinese Communist Party camps. And the Americans didn't eat everything they could eat because they didn't like it and they died of starvation. But the fact that the Chinese communists treated our men that way is a tell because they've reverted to this mode. They were the hardcore Maoist, Leninist mode in 1950 through 1953, and they've reverted. And that's what I want to talk to you about. I want to ask you at length. We got a lot of time this morning and thank you for the time. If you were advising Brett and Martha based upon your six months, what would you tell them are the major takeaways that you've learned as the chairman of the Select Committee? And how would you suggest they be turned into a question? Take your time, because that's a big that's a big question. What have you learned thus far in six months? And how would you convert that into questions for our candidates? Well, I think the overall thing to realize for these candidates and this advice is worth what they're paying me for it is that there is, in my opinion, something called the commander in chief test. It's not you know, you're not graded A through F. I think it's a pass fail endeavor, but it is absolutely critical. Put differently, I'm not myopic enough to believe that foreign policy or a particular issue of foreign policy is going to win the candidate candidate the election, but it could very well lose them the election. The final thing to say about the assumptions going into this when it comes to foreign policy is that the conventional wisdom is that it doesn't really matter from a political electoral perspective. And there's a lot of social science to support that. I just would say it doesn't matter until it does. It doesn't matter until things go haywire on the world stage and suddenly voters are looking to a prospective commander in chief to communicate, if nothing else, a sense of safety that I have the temperament and the plan to keep America safe in a very dangerous world, which leads, I think, to the answer your question more than anything else. I think these candidates need to communicate that they have a clear understanding of the threat we face in the Chinese Communist Party, the scale and scope of this threat. Why this isn't just a matter of some obscure territorial disputes in the South China Sea. This is indeed a global competition. The CCP has global ambitions. What happens in Xinjiang, what happens in Beijing is not going to stay there. They are intent on exporting their model of total techno totalitarian control, which leads to the second point that you need to find a way to contrast that threat to enduring the and inherently superior American values. And I do believe that this is a contest between two fundamentally incompatible systems of government. And it's unlike anything we've seen since, of course, the old Cold War. So communicating the stakes, communicating who we're dealing with in the nature of a Marxist Leninist regime that will stop at nothing to ensure that they survive at the expense of their own people. And that is the enemy of freedom around the world is the most important thing. In fact, I would say even more important than any particular policy position is just communicating that understanding of the threat and the prioritization of the threat, a recognition that as president, the most important issue that you will be dealing with as commander in chief is how to deter a war with the CCP in the short term and win a new Cold War with the CCP over the long term. So let's put that in the form of a question for Brett and Martha, because I think you're right, I am looking at, of course, I've always looked at every one of these debates as an audition to be commander in chief. Eventually, there comes a choice with the Democrat. But right now, when I vote in the Virginia primary, I will vote based on who will be the best commander in chief. And because that's what matter. 9 -11 matters. What is the W do on 9 -11 that matters? What does W do? The Afghanistan and Iraq. What does anyone do on any moment of crisis? What do they do in the situation room? Figuring out how to elicit that about China is a difficult thing. So you've been doing nothing but this for six months. And by the way, recap for our audience and Pittsburgh Steeler fans what you have been doing for six months, because they may never have heard of the select committee. This might be the first day they're listening to the audience. No acronyms or five dollars in the tip jar for food for the poor. Well, the speaker of the House created the select committee on the CCP to do two things. One is to communicate why this matters, why anybody in northeast Wisconsin or Pittsburgh or Ohio should care about the threat posed by the CCP, to shine a light on all the things that they're doing, whether it's threatening to invade Taiwan, whether it's establishing illegal police stations on American soil, whether it's infiltrating American universities or attempting to build spy bases in our near abroad, to explain why it matters and why your average American should care about it. The second thing is to identify policies and pieces of legislation that can pass even in divided government. In the 118th Congress, what is the center of gravity in terms of steps that we can take in order to put ourselves on a better position to beat the CCP in this short and long term competition? So that's what we've been doing. We've broken it down, essentially, as though this isn't a perfect organization into three main lines of effort. And I do think this reflects our overall lines of effort, our grand strategy against China basically has three main components. One is military competition. What are the things we need to do to deter a war over Taiwan in the near term, as well as ensure that we maintain our dominant military position over the long term? The second is what I call economic statecraft. How do we selectively decouple from China so they don't have a coercive leverage over us so they can't threaten, for example, to cut off the export of advanced pharmaceutical ingredients in order to bring us to our knees? And then the third line of effort is what I call ideological warfare or ideological competition, which is not only how do we rediscover a language for talking about American values and incorporate values and human rights back into American grand strategy, but also how do we better defend our institutions from Chinese Communist Party subversion, from something called United Front Work, from traditional espionage, things like that. So we aren't corrupted and divided from within, which is what the Chinese Communist Party is trying to do. Wang Huning, who's Xi Jinping's top lieutenant in the 90s, wrote a book called America Against America, in which he talks about Americans as greedy, factional. And that that title, America against America, I think reflects their overall strategy, which is to divide Americans against Americans and thereby make it impossible for us to compete. So we've been developing policy recommendations along each of those lines. We've put out two reports, one on military competition, one related to human rights. And we're going to be putting out further reports. So, you know, I think those are useful starting points for for candidates who want to prepare for a debate in terms of where's Congress at on this issue? Where's the bipartisan center of gravity? Where can you potentially build on some of our work? But that's what we've been doing for six months. It's trying to understand and explain the threat and then identify policy solutions that help us to combat that threat. How would you put that in the form of a question by Brett or Martha? Well, there's the overall prioritization question, you know, what is the biggest threat to American national security, which is a bit boring, but no, it's not that's not boring. That that is that is the question, isn't it? Shouldn't that just be asked? What is the number one threat to American national security and why? Shouldn't that be it? Yeah, I think that that's table stakes, right? That's a good diagnostic question. And then it also allows the candidates, if they want to use their full time and I forget how much time they get to really articulate the key distinction between them and the Biden administration, because if you read the Biden administration's national security strategy that they talk about China as a pacing threat, although I'm hearing now that the Pentagon is saying don't say pacing threat, say pacing challenge or competitor, because we obviously don't want to provoke the CCP for whatever reason. I've described this as kind of like a Voldemort phenomenon. There's this belief that the more more we say things like New Cold War or say that the CCP is doing bad things, that it will somehow become more true, which I think is absurd. I'll be right back. Sherman Gallagher is going to stay with me through the break and then we're going to bring him back and then we're going to do that again. And we're going to talk to him for 15 minutes this morning about this. I can't believe I'm doing that. 15 minutes with Mike Gallagher coming right at you, America. Stay tuned. I'm back now with Chairman Mike Gallagher. This is the segment between the radio segments, so you don't get to hear this unless you're watching it on YouTube or on the on the television station. Chairman, in terms of what level should we expect of our candidates knowledge? I see your Green Bay Packers thing yet. Do you know the Browns cleared 38 million in cap yesterday by restructuring Joel Bentonio and Miles Garrett's contract? We have no we have the most cap space in the NFL. We are the team to beat. We will see you. I actually I don't think you're making it to the Super Bowl this year. We are going to be in the Super Bowl this year and you are not ready for this. I'm glad this isn't on the air because this is a serious conversation. But you had to do that little thing. And I'll I'll just go get my brown sweater and just put it on during this segment like that. I'm going to wear this all the time now on the air because we're going to the Super Bowl. Chairman, do you know that we cleared Miles Garrett contract yesterday? You know what we do? Do you follow sports at all or do you just do ChaiCom stuff? I don't follow Brown's contract minutia. I'll confess. I'll confess that, though. I was I was yesterday. Someone said that I had the potential to coach for the Browns after I helped them with a constituent case issue, to which I said I would never coach for the Browns on an Intel. All right. Let me get serious again. I'm going to try to go off the off the rail. We'll get back on the rails. How many times have you guys held public hearings? Oh, gosh, I think 10 at this point, approximately 10. You had at least one set of war games. You have more war games coming. We do. We have we have at least one more coming up that's going to be more focused on economic and supply chain issues. OK. Do you think the candidates know anything about that? I really do want to try and use today to focus their attention on China. Do you think they know anything about what the select committee has been doing? Have you been approached by any of them? I think some do. It's part of the reason I wrote an op ed on this that appeared today in The Wall Street Journal just came out was an effort, maybe shamelessly, to draw attention to some of the things we're doing, because I think it creates some unique opportunities. I mean, to me, you know, the most and this reflects my bias in thinking that hard power is the most important variable on the world stage. I think a candidate who can articulate what we need to do to rebuild the military in general, but really the Navy in particular, which is, as you know, Hugh is really struggling right now. It needs to be our priority force in our priority theater. It's not. We're going backwards. There's questions about focus, warfighting prowess. You know, I wrote a report with the help of Admiral Montgomery about the lack of warfighting focus in the surface Navy with Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw and others. I mean, I think that's a massive opportunity for a candidate really to take the ball on defense and go a few layers deep beyond just peace through strength, military good, China bad. You go a few layers deep on that and sort of communicate that you have a coherent plan. Doesn't need to be super detailed. Doesn't need to be a 50 page white paper about everything we need to do. But just as an overall strategy for fiction, I'm going to get your comms team in trouble again. I haven't seen this plan that you and Cotton worked on. How can I not have seen this plan? Well, this is a year ago. You got to blame Cotton's comms team for this because he was OK. And usually it's good to blame Tom Cotton. He's on next hour. I'll do that. Is that widely available? Yeah, it's Cotton did it with four of us in the house. It was over a year, a year and a half ago, kind of in response to all of these ship collisions. Some of the reports that we were getting from active duty sailors and just the changes over the years to training in the surface Navy. We did a deep dive drawing on the expertise of Admiral Montgomery and others. I will give him about that in the next hour and I'll get a link and I'll make sure it's posted out to the candidates. Don't go anywhere. I'm coming right back with Chairman Gallagher. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt, Chairman Mike Gallagher of the House Select Committee on Engagement, the Chinese Communist Party returns. We talked during the break and we got off course because we did a little football trash talk. But now we're back on course. Chairman Gallagher, have you read this book? You had Kabul, the untold story of Biden's fiasco and the warriors who fought to the end. It it made me furious. It absolutely made me furious. Have you had a chance to read it yet? No, but my friend Commander Salamander, who's great in his podcast, Midrats, I highly recommend, just did a podcast with with the authors. So I listened to it. It's not the same, but I am now looking forward to reading the actual hard copy. Well, the end of the book, which I don't know of Commander Salamander got to because I didn't get to it and I talked to him for a long time. It's about how the chai comms came in as soon as we left. They have designs on Bagram. They know what the air raids mean. They know what the strategic minerals mean. It's just a great example of what happens when we retreat in the world. In fact, in the in the this kind of war book you had me read, I wrote down some notes. A retreat once started as the most difficult of all human actions to reverse. And they were talking about the retreat of the Norcs at that point. And then we would retreat later when they counterattack with the chai comms. But we retreated from Afghanistan and they have come in. Have you focused yet on what they're doing there? It hasn't been, admittedly, a subject of a hearing. You know, we have experts, you know, regional experts and Afghanistan experts. I think the key thing to bring it back to the the presidential debate, obviously the obvious thing to do is to connect the surrender to terrorists in Afghanistan, our abandonment of our position, our abandonment of billions of dollars worth of military equipment to then the collapse of deterrence in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, because I do believe that our feckless position in Afghanistan sent a clear signal of weakness to Vladimir Putin. And no wonder Vladimir Putin ignored all of our warnings leading up to the invasion on February 24th because we look so weak on the world stage and we allowed terrorists to completely take over the country. And I think also that has had a negative impact on our deterrent posture in in the Indo -Pacific, across the Taiwan Strait. You mentioned critical minerals. I also think this is a huge opportunity for presidential candidates to articulate a plausible path towards reducing our dependency on China for critical mineral processing. They control 90 percent of the processing. Right now, I think our attempts to wean ourselves off of our to to establish some form of semiconductor manufacturing independence are not going to be successful, in part because the Biden administration has placed so many onerous regulations on grants for chips, fabrication facilities. But if a Republican candidate, particularly one with a business background or with a gubernatorial background, came in and said, here's our strategy when it comes to advanced pharmaceutical ingredients, critical minerals and rare earth processing, tie that to a robust domestic economic agenda. That's a massive opportunity for someone trying to pass the commander in chief test, because the reality is we are going to have to reclaim our economic independence from China in key areas. The progressives are experimenting with one way to do it. We need to identify a way that is fundamentally free market, but not but nonetheless achieves the actual goal of reducing our dependency on China. Chairman Gallagher, there's only one veteran on the stage, Ron DeSantis. Mike Pence has got a son and a son in law on active duty. Of course, Nikki Haley's husband is deployed. Those three know about this in terms of of why is China a threat? Is it a fair question to ask? Why is China a threat? What is it that worries you about China? Is that a fair question? If so, how would you answer that or suggest they answer that if you are one of the people on the stage? Well, first of all, I do think DeSantis has been really good on China and probably the best in the field. I was watching the forum that they did in Iowa. I forget what it's called, the Iowa Faith and Family Forum. And he proactively brought up China as an issue and talked about what he's done in Florida to combat the threat, talked about the threat in global terms. And so the most of the discussion focused on Ukraine. And I understand that that's more of a politically divisive issue on the stage. And so there is a you know, I think the moderators will want to identify the differences between the candidate thus far. Governor DeSantis has been talking in clear and unapologetic language about why the CCP is a threat and what he would do to combat it, which is greatly appreciated. More to your point, as a Navy veteran, I think he has a huge opportunity to be the Navy guy, be the guy who's going to rebuild the Navy and put it in a position where it can it can deter Xi Jinping from attempting to achieve his lifelong ambition was to take Taiwan by force. So to answer your question, Vivek just told me last week, we'll give them Taiwan after we achieve semiconductor independence. In other words, Vivek understands Taiwan is important for its semiconductor. Your colleague on the committee, Ro Khanna, tweeted at me last night when I was already offline that that doesn't do the trick. That's not why we're worried about Taiwan going down. Who's right? Well, obviously, our interests in Taiwan extend far beyond semiconductors. Our interests predate Taiwan's emergence as a semiconductor powerhouse. And if the concern from Vivek and I think it is that our dependence on TSMC for semiconductor manufacturing needs to be eliminated, I just would say two things. It's highly unlikely that we're going to achieve semiconductor independence by 2028. TSMC is investing far more money than the CHIPS Act is investing right now. Even under a Republican president, we would struggle to wean ourself off our dependency. But if the CCP had control of Taiwan, they would still be able to hold the rest of the world economically hostage. And that is the issue. Semiconductors or other or some sort of domain of economic competition. If they had Taiwan, they would be able to completely dominate the region through which trillions of dollars of international trade go. The other thing I would say, it's I mean, we got to go to break. I'll come back to go to break. We'll be right back with Chairman Gallagher during the break and then one more segment beyond. Don't go anywhere. America, I'm Hugh Hewitt. Portions of The Hugh Hewitt Show are brought to you by Food for the Poor. So I'm back with Chairman Gallagher, Chairman Vivek's answer to that is I'm going to get India to cooperate. And if Taiwan closes the Taiwan Straits, we're going to close the Malacca Straits. Ro Khanna says that's that's crazy. That doesn't work. I don't know what the answer is, but I know what Vivek has told me. I don't think he agrees with you, but I'll let him speak for himself. I don't want to put words in his mouth that we have to worry that much about the Taiwan Strait. Well, he's obviously very smart. I would say this with Marxist Leninist regimes, their appetites grow with the eating. So I think it would be a mistake to think that if we just surrender Taiwan on a date certain that we wouldn't have to worry about the problem. If they're the dominant regional power, they're one step closer to becoming the dominant global power. And that, I think, is the answer to your earlier question. Why? Why is the CCP a threat? Because they're trying to destroy our geopolitical position. Primarily by convincing us to destroy ourselves, they believe, as we mince words about whether they're a competitor or an adversary, they certainly believe that they're in an existential war with the free world led by America and that China will win, rendering America and our constitutional system of self -government subordinate, humiliated and wholly irrelevant on the world stage. So you can sort of think of it as as an assisted suicide. You know, they're trying to expedite our collapse. They provide the chemicals, fentanyl, the collapse in prosperity. Covid, IP theft, economic warfare and the self -loathing and depression via political interference and information warfare. So I think the the the threat would not stop after Xi Jinping had taken Taiwan. I think it would only expedite and become greater. So if you could read Xi Jinping's mind, what is he thinking about us? What does he want to see happen to us? I think he wants us to look inward and to abandon our position on the world stage and to be consumed with internal political battles. I also think he likes seeing us embrace this almost the CCP's narrative that America is an evil country. America is a neo colonial racist hellscape. I mean, this is CCP propaganda that a lot of Americans have embraced. I think ultimately he wants us to lose faith in ourselves as a force for good in the world. And ultimately, over time, he thinks the rest of the world is going to Finland dies more in the CCP's direction as an alternative model of government and world leadership, in part because America has lost faith in itself. That's why I think primarily the hard power is the most important variable. This is an ideological competition overall. And ignoring the role ideology plays in the competition is a fatal flaw. And so we need to find a way to press the candidates on that as well. You know, the we got two minutes before we come back. The ideological competition is quite simply not discussed. And I don't think our media is familiar with it. They're not stupid. They're ignorant of the ideological. They don't even believe it exists anymore. Chairman, have you run into that? Do your Democratic colleagues believe that there are such things like Leninist and that that the 20th century ideological competition is back with a vengeance? Well, I think for two and a half decades, we tried to take the communist out of Chinese Communist Party, and this belief persists that, well, they're not really communist. They're not really Marxist. They've embraced forms of capitalism and they're they're rational actors. And I think this is a dangerous way of thinking to go down, particularly under Xi Jinping. The party has embraced its Marxist Leninist roots. Xi's spirit animal is, in fact, Stalin. He looks to Stalin for guidance on how to operate. And so a candidate who understands that and can articulate that, I think, has a massive opportunity to distinguish themselves. The Democrats sort of come at the ideological competition through human rights. And there are a lot who genuinely believe in the cause of human rights. And though there are times when we have to prioritize between security concerns and human rights, this is when dealing with China, that's not an issue at all. We're coming right back. Stand by, chairman.
The Breakdown
A highlight from A Primer on China's Current Economic Turmoil
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, August 17th, and today we are doing a great, big, what the heck is going on with China episode. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link at the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. Hello friends, we are rumbling on towards the end of the week. And speaking of rumblings, if you have been watching the macro Twittersphere closely, there have been growing rumblings about China. You see it pop up a little bit in mainstream media and on YouTube's and certainly now happening on podcasts. And then yesterday, Preston Pish tweeted, anyone have a really good and recent article or podcast on what's happening with the economy in China right now? Well over here at The Breakdown, that really cinched it that we were going to dig into this. And before we do the usual caveats, one, I am not a China expert, just like basically I'm not an expert on anything we talk about here. But what we try to do well over here at The Breakdown is aggregate sources to help you better understand what's happening at least a little bit better. And number two, to the extent it comes up, apologies in advance for pronunciations or perhaps I should say mispronunciations. With that, let's try to get a sense of what's happening and why it matters. On Tuesday, the People's Bank of China cut rates on one year loans by 15 basis points to 2 .5%. This is the largest cut since 2020 and was an emergency policy adjustment following the release of some truly dismal economic data. July data showed weak consumer spending growth, sliding investment and rising unemployment. Youth unemployment for people between the ages of 16 and 24 hit 21 % in June. I know you guys can do the math, but to put that differently, that means one in five young people are now out of work. In fact, this month, the National Bureau of Statistics didn't actually release data on youth unemployment, stating that they needed to adjust their methodology to exclude students seeking their first job. Now, over in currency land, the yuan has devalued by 6 % over the course of the year, recently reaching the low point it recorded last October of 7 .3 yuan per dollar. That's the weakest exchange rate for the yuan since late 2007. Data from June showed that China have decreased their holdings of U .S. treasuries for three months in a row, bringing them to a 14 -year low. Some analysts believe that these reserves have been mobilized to defend the yuan from devaluing too rapidly. June CPI data released last week showed that the Chinese economy was in outright deflation. Consumer prices fell by 0 .3 % on an annualized basis. Manufacturing activity has now contracted for four months straight, and GDP growth this year has been paltry, recording 2 .2 % in the first quarter and just 0 .8 % in the second quarter. Multiple international banks have now downgraded Chinese growth estimates, forecasting that the economy will fail to achieve the 5 % growth target set by the CCP. And if that target is not hit, it will be the third year in a row with sub -5 % growth, an unprecedented rough patch in the post -Mao era from 1976 onwards. Now, contributing to this are debt problems, credit problems, and social stability problems. But before we get to those, let's do a whistle -stop review of the last few years in China to see how things wound up in this position. You will remember that during the pandemic, China ran one of the strictest and longest -running lockdown regimes in the world. And while the impact of the lockdown on the people of China was of course immense, the disruption it caused was also a major driver in economic dysfunction. Global supply chains became broken, impacting items from semiconductors to gym equipment. While the fragility of supply chains based in Chinese manufacturing had long been a talking point for hawks in the West, the failure of multiple critical supply chains during the pandemic cemented the idea of reshoring manufacturing across the political aisle in the US. Since taking office, the Biden administration has pursued major industrial policy with a view to decoupling critical industries from reliance on China. The financial sector has also been discouraged from investing in China over the past few years, with a range of policies and pressure campaigns ensuring that capital flows into China are crimped. And as a little bit of a self -shill, if you want to hear about how this has been impacting the development of their artificial intelligence field, go check that out. There continues to be incredible pressure on the Biden administration to even increase restrictions on export of AI -related technology to China, even though many of those restrictions are already in place. Anyway, heading back into the COVID era, as the rest of the world opened up and rolled back lockdowns in late 2021, China continued to be locked down into the strict zero COVID era. Many times, even when it appeared that things were on the verge of opening back up, some new outbreak would cause another lockdown, leading ultimately to citizens bristling at the continuation of tough track and trace policies. Another big notable event during this time was that in December of 2021, the massive Evergrande property development group defaulted on an interest payment on its corporate bonds. The property giant had been severely impacted by a crackdown on leverage within the property sector in 2020 and had struggled to refinance its debt. The tightening of credit standards was known as the three red lines policy and was intended to reduce the credit risk of home builders. When it collapsed, Evergrande had over 50 million apartments left unfinished, leaving homeowners to question whether they would ever receive finished units. The Evergrande failure precipitated further economic problems across China in 2022. Protesters staged demonstrations outside banks, with organized groups refusing to make mortgage payments on unfinished homes. In many cases, mortgages had been taken out prior to construction beginning, and so you can only imagine the frustration of people who were continuing to pay for homes that had been further and further delayed and who couldn't actually even live in them. In that same time period, multiple banks and wealth management products failed across the country and Chinese real estate in general entered its most severe downturn in history. Now the government did step in to manage the Evergrande failure and broader economic contagion. They were, however, in a tough position. Government policy around the restriction of credit to the property sector had been a major catalyst for the problems, but officials were reluctant to wind back the regulations entirely. President Xi Jinping has been outspoken about reducing the financialization of housing, stating, quote, houses are for living in, not for speculation. Now diving a little bit deeper into this area of the economy, the property sector is a key part of basically every major economy, but China takes this element to the extreme. China has one of the most overvalued housing markets in the world in relation to income. On average, an apartment cost over 30 times annual income, with major cities like Shanghai bringing this ratio as high as 50 times income. In the US, the ratio between housing costs and income is closer to four times on average and 10 times for major metros like New York and San Diego. Part of the reason housing is so expensive is that Chinese citizens use housing as a primary store of wealth. Again, this is true globally, but it's particularly lopsided in China. Housing accounts for more than 70 % of household wealth in China. Many people invest in property and then hold it vacant to preserve its value as a never lived in home. China has some of the highest rates of homeownership in the world, with as many as 90 % of households owning at least one property. This skew towards the property sector is largely a function of mistrust in other domestic assets, as well as tight capital controls. The Chinese stock market is notoriously opaque and lacking in the disclosure rules that provide a semblance of investor protection in the West. And while managed investment products are popular, they're often just proxies for exposure to the property sector. Analysts typically measure the Chinese property sector as representing around 30 % of Chinese GDP, which compares to the estimates of around 17 % in the US. Now other countries, including Canada and Australia, have similar levels of household wealth and GDP contribution from the property sector. But the key difference for the Chinese housing industry is the sheer scale of the market. Chinese real estate is estimated to be worth $42 .7 trillion. This is slightly larger than the US real estate market in aggregate, and even a few trillion dollars bigger than the total market capitalization of the entire US stock market. Many point to Chinese real estate then as the largest asset class in the world, and it is going down hard right now. Official data has new home prices down 2 .4 % across China since their peak in August of 2021. Existing homes have dropped by 6 % in the same time. This is already a massive drop for a housing market that was generally assumed to go up forever, but these official average figures don't tell the whole story. In China, closing prices for real estate are not public, so the official data is an estimate at best and a political fabrication at worst. The data relies on surveys and has significant smoothing to dampen trends. This makes turning points difficult to capture and could mean the official data is not telling the full story. Private data from property agents shows major markets like Shanghai and Shenzhen falling by at least 15 % in prime neighborhoods. The real estate surrounding Alibaba's headquarters is estimated to have lost a quarter of its value. Goldman Sachs economist Wang Lishang said, Now, alongside the fall in the housing market, more acute problems in the financial sector have also sprung up recently. At the end of July, Zhongrong International Trust Company missed payments across dozens of wealth management products. The company is a gigantic player in the Chinese shadow banking sector, which intermediates loans between individuals and private lenders. They primarily deal in the sale of real estate backed bonds, and at least 30 products are now overdue, and the company have said they have no immediate plans to make clients whole. Chinese authorities have set up a task force to investigate potential contagion, and banking regulators are looking into risks at the firm's part owner, Zhongjie Enterprise Group. Zhongjie managed around $138 billion. Jason Hsu, chief investment officer of Raelient Global Advisors, said, This was one that everyone knew was going to blow up. Overall, there are 106 trust products across the country in default through to July of this year, worth around $6 billion in principle. Real estate investments have accounted for 74 % of default by value. Corporate defaults are also up in recent months. June and July recorded missed payments on more than a billion dollars in domestic notes. That's the worst stretch since last December and January, which was punctuated by the default of Evergrande. This time around, the problem seems centered on an even larger property developer called Country Garden. The firm is considered by most to be the largest home builder in China and has more than four times as many outstanding projects as Evergrande. Country Garden has missed payments on its dollar -denominated bonds and is currently inside a 30 -day grace period prior to a formal default. Trading has been suspended on at least 11 onshore notes, and payment extension proposals are in the works. Country Garden's January 2024 dollar bond issuance traded at 9 cents earlier this week, an implied yield of 2 ,500%, just to give you an idea of how the market is pricing the firm's chance of recovery here. Now, as credit risk rips through domestic markets, China's major state -owned banks have been told to sell dollars to buy yuan in both onshore and offshore markets. According to anonymous sources speaking to Reuters, Chinese banks have been propping up the yuan throughout the week in an attempt to control the decline of the currency. Now, standard caveat on quoting Zero Hedge, but Zero Hedge is also reporting that Beijing have urged investment funds not to sell off Chinese stocks. Taking a step back, up until recently, the Chinese reopening was a major narrative for markets. There had been turmoil across China over the last two years, but many investors consoled themselves that China would reopen strong and provide some much -needed growth to the global economy. What's happened is almost the complete opposite. Chinese growth has come in weak and sputtered along since reopening. It now looks like China is headed for a recession at best, if not a full -blown financial crisis. Carnegie Endowment senior fellow Michael Pettis wrote, It may seem like terrible luck and amazing coincidence that so many things are going wrong in the Chinese economy at the same time. But of course, it is not a coincidence at all. This is how systemic imbalances work themselves out. I've often written about the Minskyan dynamics of long periods in which market variables move persistently in the same direction. When that happens, businesses, banks, local governments, and households who implicitly or explicitly take too much one -direction risk systematically outperform those that don't, until eventually the operations and balance sheets of much of the economy are directly or indirectly leveraged to those variables. That is why, when that variable finally reverses, the damage can often be much greater than anyone expected, mainly because no one understood the extent of the implicit and explicit exposures. Decades of surging property prices, expanding liquidity, and contracting credit spreads in China have created an economy in which balance sheets have highly correlated mismatches and distortions. In that case, the impact of an eventual reversal is brutally hard to predict. What about the response? Well, three weeks ago, when it had become clear that China was entering another period of economic distress, Chinese leaders vowed to provide more support. The Politburo pledged to spur consumer spending, tackle unemployment, and backstop the property sector. However, details were sorely lacking. The Politburo's statement acknowledged that the economic recovery after reopening was making quote torturous progress and that it was necessary to quote actively expand domestic demand and expand consumption by increasing residents' income. Julian Evans -Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, lamented the lack of a clear plan. He said at the time, Given how bad things are at the moment, it is a bit disappointing that they didn't give us some figures. And while their statement did recognize the risk to the economy, Evans -Pritchard said quote, They are not so desperate that they feel the need to resort to the old -school Big Bang stimulus. What he's referring to is that during prior downturns during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2012 euro crisis, the CCP was eager to dole out massive stimulus on the supply side. The Chinese government directed the stockpiling of commodities and gigantic infrastructure projects to keep growth ticking over at a fast pace despite global economic turmoil. This time around, as of yet, there is no clear policy, just haphazard emergency interventions. For example, the People's Bank of China has cut rates, but there's a limit to what monetary stimulus can do to support consumption. This time, the problem is deflation, a collapse of demand. Until now, Chinese policymakers have largely been able to keep the economy out of the ditch using only supply -side stimulus, but it's not clear that that will work again. Late on Monday, Kai Fang, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the PBOC, warned that emergency rate cuts would not be enough. He said, Fang joins a growing chorus of economists insisting on direct transfer payments to consumers in order to support spending. This option has been controversial with senior Politburo figures, however, and so far Beijing has ignored the suggestion. Many have suggested instead that tax and fee cuts for companies were the most direct, fair, and efficient way to stimulate the economy. Senior Party members also have a history of warning against the Of course, the concern is that the underlying problem might be a simple lack of capacity. China's government resources are distributed through numerous local governments. These governments typically raise funding through land sales, but with the property sector in trouble, this line of revenue is less viable. There has also been an ongoing dispute between the central party and provincial governments. During the turmoil of the last few years, Beijing has been reluctant to come to the aid of overindebted regional governments. Estimates vary wildly due to the large amount of off -balance sheet liabilities, but Goldman Sachs analysts think there could be as much as $13 trillion in debt held by local governments. China's GDP is around $17 trillion annually, so there could be significantly less fiscal space for stimulus than the publicly disclosed figures imply. Liu Chao, professor of finance at Peking University, said, Now, as you might imagine, overarching all of these economic problems are the very real political considerations. Tensions around the rule of President Xi Jinping have started to come to a head around the financial turmoil of the last two years. For the first time, we've seen evidence of open protests against Xi on the mainland. Now, of course, it's impossible to tell how widespread the antipathy towards Xi is, but it's hard not to view at least some of the events of the last couple years as cracks emerging. And so really where we're left to do a very brief summary is a situation in which a set of challenges are converging all at the same time. And they're a set of challenges not necessarily easily solved by old techniques. Officials are caught between wanting to run back the old playbook and trying to figure out if there's a new playbook that'll work better. Michael Pettis again wrote, What got China into this mess has been over a decade of massive amounts of investment in unnecessary infrastructure and empty apartments. If this investment had been economically justified, rising debt would have been more than matched by rising productive capacity and GDP, which means local government debt would have never become the problem it has clearly become. I understand why many policy advisors are so worried about China's economic slowdown, that they are turning again to the old policies that boosted GDP in the past. But more of the same won't get China out of the mess that more of the same got it into. Now, of course, outside of China, the big questions are how a Chinese recession or slowdown or even financial crisis will impact the global economy. One thing that some observers have noted is that we haven't had a normal business cycle recession in so long. In other words, we haven't had a downturn precipitated by anything other than a financial crisis for so long that we kind of don't know how to handle it. We don't really have a playbook for what to do with it, at least not one that's been updated recently. To some extent, I wonder if the not knowingness of the situation is contributing to the anxiety around it, but as with any macro topic, it is an extremely dense, complex, nuanced intertwined set of issues. And so the best we can do is keep trying to keep track of it and recontextualize as new events teach us more about what's happening. Hope this was a helpful primer, at least a little bit on what's going on. Until next time, peace.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 12:00 08-11-2023 12:00
"Very interesting story. I recommend people check out that story on the Bloomberg Terminal or on Bloomberg .com. When we come back, we're going to talk about a couple of really important cage matches. Cage matches? One possibly real between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg. One just in my head between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping in China. It's going to be a very interesting story with our Bloomberg opinion writer. More markets up next. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. We got a lot of green on the screen here, but the volume is light. We constantly underestimate the strength of the U .S. consumer. This is a market that's much more optimistic or bullish than maybe central bankers are. Breaking market news and insight from Bloomberg experts. There's still some concern out there in the market that there is room for things to deteriorate a little bit more than what they're indicating. As small and medium -sized businesses struggle, they don't present as much competition. The supply chain has still got dislocations globally and here in the U .S. This is Bloomberg Markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Radio. Matt Miller here in the Interactive Brokers Studio with Simone Foxman. Paul Sweeney is off today on a well -deserved tea day. That's what we call it when you take off. On assignment, figuring out work -life balance. Exactly. Just swimming through his pool of municipal bonds. We have a lot coming up, though, on the program. I'm very excited to get Howard Chua -Yuan with us. He's an international editor with Bloomberg Opinion to talk about the comments that President Biden made about the Communist Party at Xi Jinping, about China. Some of them, I think, pretty inflammatory, it's safe to say. Almost Trumpian.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Featured Story | Some Users May Want an Everything App, but What We Need Is Digital Sovereignty
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Thursday, August 10th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from Coindesk. George Kaloudis here again with your featured story. On today's show, we're bringing the Wondercraft AI voice back to read an opinion piece by Jameson Lapp, the CTO and co -founder of CASA. The piece is titled, Some users may want an everything app, but what we need is digital sovereignty. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a news source and does not provide financial advice. I'll catch y 'all on the other side. In late July, Twitter's logo suddenly changed to an X, followed by Elon Musk's official announcement. Twitter is officially no more, and the website used by millions around the world is now called X. According to the platform's CEO, Linda Yaccarino, the rebranding was the next step toward, quote, the future state of unlimited interactivity, end quote, morphing Twitter into, quote, a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities, end quote, or a unified, quote, unquote, everything app. But who asked for this? At a time when our lives are only becoming increasingly digital, why should we hand all of our information to centralized opaque organizations that have a track record of using it unethically? Sure, these services can be profoundly convenient, and many people undoubtedly enjoy having one user friendly application that can manage so much of their digital and real lives. But what's the price? Is convenience worth our freedom? The idea of Twitter as an everything app was seemingly inspired by the popular Chinese platform WeChat, which allows users not only to chat, make calls, and send media, but also to make payments and access a wide range of financial and personal services. As Elon Musk has said, you basically live on WeChat in China. If we can recreate that with Twitter, we'll be a great success. Despite sounding convenient on paper, there's a genuine concern about what happens when you use a single point of access for your entire digital world. If you do anything deemed unacceptable, generally by algorithms designed by people you will never know, you can be cut off in a second, often with little to no recourse. Last October, for example, some WeChat users in China reported that they were banned from the platform entirely, effectively killing their digital self, just for reposting some questionable banners condemning Xi Jinping. More recently, X itself literally hijacked a 16 -year -old account that used the atX handle, replacing its name with atX, followed by a 14 -digit long sequence of numbers without any prior warnings, consent, or compensation. Twitter's rebranding was happening alongside the launch of Meta's new community messaging service called Threads. It joined Meta's other social media offerings, including Facebook and Instagram, and is designed for sharing text updates and joining public conversations in competition with X. Considering Meta's complicated history with customer data, it's unsurprising that many are concerned that Threads is simply a new avenue for information gathering and potential abuse. Many big tech companies like Meta and X have tried to create everything platforms by expanding into new products because being present in users' day -to -day lives is a way to gather untold gigabytes of data on people worldwide. But without owning your account, everything can be unilaterally taken away in an instant, and everything becomes a single point of surveillance and potential failure.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Featured Story | Some Users May Want an Everything App, but What We Need Is Digital Sovereignty
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Thursday, August 10th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from Coindesk. George Kaloudis here again with your featured story. On today's show, we're bringing the Wondercraft AI voice back to read an opinion piece by Jameson Lapp, the CTO and co -founder of CASA. The piece is titled, Some users may want an everything app, but what we need is digital sovereignty. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a news source and does not provide financial advice. I'll catch y 'all on the other side. In late July, Twitter's logo suddenly changed to an X, followed by Elon Musk's official announcement. Twitter is officially no more, and the website used by millions around the world is now called X. According to the platform's CEO, Linda Yaccarino, the rebranding was the next step toward, quote, the future state of unlimited interactivity, end quote, morphing Twitter into, quote, a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities, end quote, or a unified, quote, unquote, everything app. But who asked for this? At a time when our lives are only becoming increasingly digital, why should we hand all of our information to centralized opaque organizations that have a track record of using it unethically? Sure, these services can be profoundly convenient, and many people undoubtedly enjoy having one user friendly application that can manage so much of their digital and real lives. But what's the price? Is convenience worth our freedom? The idea of Twitter as an everything app was seemingly inspired by the popular Chinese platform WeChat, which allows users not only to chat, make calls, and send media, but also to make payments and access a wide range of financial and personal services. As Elon Musk has said, you basically live on WeChat in China. If we can recreate that with Twitter, we'll be a great success. Despite sounding convenient on paper, there's a genuine concern about what happens when you use a single point of access for your entire digital world. If you do anything deemed unacceptable, generally by algorithms designed by people you will never know, you can be cut off in a second, often with little to no recourse. Last October, for example, some WeChat users in China reported that they were banned from the platform entirely, effectively killing their digital self, just for reposting some questionable banners condemning Xi Jinping. More recently, X itself literally hijacked a 16 -year -old account that used the atX handle, replacing its name with atX, followed by a 14 -digit long sequence of numbers without any prior warnings, consent, or compensation. Twitter's rebranding was happening alongside the launch of Meta's new community messaging service called Threads. It joined Meta's other social media offerings, including Facebook and Instagram, and is designed for sharing text updates and joining public conversations in competition with X. Considering Meta's complicated history with customer data, it's unsurprising that many are concerned that Threads is simply a new avenue for information gathering and potential abuse. Many big tech companies like Meta and X have tried to create everything platforms by expanding into new products because being present in users' day -to -day lives is a way to gather untold gigabytes of data on people worldwide. But without owning your account, everything can be unilaterally taken away in an instant, and everything becomes a single point of surveillance and potential failure.
The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated
Sen. Tom Cotton Assess the Risk of a CCP Strike on American Assets
"Right now senator I do want to talk to you about what Ron DeSantis told me which is he does not discount the Possibility that she and the CCP would order a first strike on American assets. How do you assess that risk? He's right it is a genuine risk if Xi Jinping thinks that he can go for the jugular in Taiwan and achieve his and the party's long stated desire of Invading and annexing Taiwan to communist China He knows the number one really the only impediment to that ambition is the American military So I would not be surprised at all If Xi Jinping launches a military first strike against our assets in places like Guam or Okinawa or takes actions that are harder to attribute in cyberspace or in outer space as a way to Inhibit our ability to stop his invasion or to deter us and that may seem like it's unlikely or improbable or Scaremongering, but you know the hue that's exactly what people probably thought about Japan launching a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor or if you consider Germany's war plans leading up toward war one when everyone knew that Germany had to launch an unprovoked attack the West if it were to defend itself to the east So you cannot absolutely cannot discount the possibility that China might launch a first strike of some sort against the United States As part of its plan to invade and annex
The Charlie Kirk Show
A highlight from Facing the Dragon with Vivek Ramaswamy and Rich Baris
"Hey, everybody. Vivek Ramaswamy, who is surging into second place in the Republican field, and Rich Barris join us. Subscribe to our podcast by opening up your podcast app and type in Charlie Kirk show. Email me as always, freedom at charliekirk .com. Get involved, get involved with Turning Point USA at tpusa .com. That is tpusa .com. Start a high school or college chapter today at tpusa .com. Turning Point USA is the way we stop the cultural revolution, is with Turning Point USA at tpusa .com. Buckle up, everybody. Here we go. Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk. Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks. I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. That's why we are here. Brought to you by the loan experts I trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at andrewandtodd .com. Joining us now is Rich Barris. He has a lot of polling that he wants to discuss from the People's Pundit Daily. Rich, you were watching the response, the ACT Conference. What is your response to it? Did you learn anything? Does it confirm some other big trends that you are seeing? Rich Barris? You know, Charlie, I was actually just saying yesterday, and as always, thanks for having me on. In the 2022 primaries, there was already this fight between the Trump wing, the Turning Point base, right, the war room crowd, you put it all together, and the traditional wings of the party, or I hate saying traditional, it's just how the media phrases it, and they lost. And I'm not sure that you can win a presidential nomination by ignoring the young base of the party. So it did, you know, the energy confirmed it, the Turning Point straw poll confirmed it. I really think that was a mistake by Governor DeSantis not going there, especially considering, I mean, they had the summit with evangelical leaders with Bob Vander Plaatsch, Trump did not go to that, and the media made a lot of hay about that. But in truth, I thought it was a bigger mistake for DeSantis not to go to an event in his own state where the real base of his party is. And he wants to be president of Iowa, I guess. You cannot win a nomination by being the president of Iowa, but we just polled that state, Charlie, and as you can see from what I sent you, that doesn't even look like that's going to happen. So you needed to appeal to a greater number of people. I've been saying this for a while, MAGA is younger, MAGA is more diverse, MAGA is the future, and you cannot win a Republican nomination doing what Ron DeSantis is doing, which is running a 1990s 2000 style Republican campaign. So, Rich, it's confusing to me and I want to make sure it's clear, I get hate mails for saying this, but Ron DeSantis is a great governor. Some people, you know, are trying to rewrite history. We're honest on this show. He's not a good candidate. He's not going in a good direction, presidential candidate. He's running a poor campaign, but he's been a terrifically conservative governor. And Rich, I'm confused. What is the internal strategy around there? What is the calculation? If you don't want to talk to 6000 voters, just walk me through it. I mean, I'm a Trump guy, but I'm also an interested patriot who doesn't want to see a conservative governor become so deeply unpopular that it's going to turn Florida blue. I'm not kidding. What am I missing here, Rich? Because it seems to be a pattern of mistakes, Rich Barris. Yeah, it's a tragic story. It's one we've seen a lot on the Republican side, unfortunately, where they take somebody with a bright future and they being the consultant class, they take somebody with a bright future. They see dollar signs around these people. Charlie, the filings just came out and people like me, even from NBC News to The Washington Post to The New York Times, I hate to say it, but they all see what I see, which is what you and I have been talking about for months. This is a donor's you know what dream. This is not a campaign for the people. This is not a campaign to reach the future of the party. And by the way, it might have been 6000 people in attendance at the Turning Point Action Conference. But how many people watched online? How many people want speeches online, clips online? It's a lot more than that. I mean, you know those numbers better than I. Yeah. You know those numbers better than I, Charlie, a lot more than the Bob Vander Plaats event. Give me a break. It was unbelievable. He was obviously told by consultants not to go there because he was afraid of the reception that he was going to get, which, by the way, if you're afraid of Turning Point activists, how are you going to fare in front of Vladimir Putin? How are you going to fare in front of Xi Jinping? You can't stand up to the base of your own party? It's sad because it's really worse than people are saying when I'm looking at these numbers. I'm looking at a lot of consultants getting rich. I'm looking at a lot of vendors who have failed Republican campaigns time and time again, getting rich. I'm looking at millions upon millions of dollars that could have been spent at vote, you know, some more sophisticated get out vote being operation spent on making them rich. Meanwhile, his poll numbers just completely tank. IBD, TIP out today. We took a lot of flack because we were the first ones to put him in the teens. Well, at least we still have him at 17. IBD and TIP have him at 14 nationally now. He was 19 percent in our poll in Iowa. I got to tell you, that stunned me, Charlie. He spent, that campaign has spent a lot of money in Iowa. And I was thinking anywhere this guy's going to be at 30, 32 percent, it will be the state of Iowa. He was not. The entire strategy is built around evangelicals. And Trump had a 31 point lead with evangelicals in Iowa. So overall, Trump was ahead 51 to 19. And we put out that map. And it's it's just, again, it's tragic. It's a tragic story because I don't know a young governor his age as successful as he was. I don't know that anyone couldn't have looked at him and said he had a bright future. Why would you do this? And the truth is, look at the FEC filings and then you'll see clear as day why it was easy to convince him to do this and why people tried to convince him. What is it? So hold on, hold on, hold on. What is the S? What are what are in the files? Because people, there's been a lot of cattle walling around it. We were running an event and dealing with all sorts of stuff. Tell us about the filings, Rich. A lot of people don't know about it. His burn rate is through the roof. A burn rate is basically the ratio of how much have you got coming in versus how much you're putting out. They're burning, they're churning and burning through the money he's raised. And he has nowhere to go to get more money because not only have people maxed out, most of his vast majority of his donations not only came from big donors who are maxed out and cannot come back, but not just for the primary Charlie, but most of them have even maxed out for the general election. And then the one out of six that he has remaining cash on hand, which is about 21 million dollars, is actually not really the case because one out of six dollars of that 21 million can only be used in a general election. So the truth is, Trump outraised him on what can be used before Iowa and New Hampshire. So again, no low dollar contributions. To be fair, every non -Trump candidate is having problems with low dollar contributions. But why does this matter? No matter how much money DeSantis' PAC brings in, a PAC cannot run a campaign. There are jobs that need to be run through the campaign. There are not even jobs, like I'm talking about people taking roles. There are things, there are operations that only a campaign can do. You cannot coordinate with the super PAC. So all that will do is make the consulting class even more rich while the campaign flounders. That's why Hillary Clinton had such a low dollar contributions coming in and revitalizing his campaign. Trump has always been a low dollar bull when it came to raising money. So he never had this problem of his donors maxing out. So he's really, and there's been a lot of comparisons made in the last couple of days looking at this, these reports, to Scott Walker in 2016. This is the same warning signs we saw flashing with Scott Walker and his money situation. And he didn't even make it to a single state, Charlie. So this is very real. This is a very real problem. However, remember, again, the consultants, they're millions richer, millions richer. The vendors, millions richer. It's tragedy. I love the framing of the tragedy because in some ways, we want everyone to be the best version of themselves. He has a terrific record. And so then I was chatting with somebody and texting who is a DeSantis person. And they said, oh, Charlie, you know, I would have given the same advice for Ron DeSantis not to show up, which is just so silly. And they said, they said, what would you have expected him to do? I'd say, look, just take a little bit of a pay. I mean, obviously they don't listen to people like me because they think they know better. But when you have a problem, confront it or just do an open mic and say, if you disagree, let's chat. Do you understand the virality, Rich? That would have been right. I mean, you have 6 ,000 grassroots activists. And honestly, Ron DeSantis is a smart guy. If I would advise him Ron DeSantis, I'd look him in the eyes and be like, you're tough. You're smart. Lean in, man. Have a have a viral grassroots moment. Listen to people. Clarify the misconceptions. And you're in a dominance. You're in a dominance struggle with an alpha beast. You don't do that by avoidance. You don't do that. You're right, Rich. Now that his campaign is going down, people don't want to give money. He's laying off staff and it's going down. He's going down to the polls.
The Dan Bongino Show
Flashback: Expert Connects Joe Biden to Chinese Foundations
"Money the money trail is everywhere Jim queue for up me cut five here's a flashback to a Tucker Carlson show clip China expert Gordon Chang's on they're talking about a communist Chinese Communist Party professor Dijon and in this speech this Chinese Communist Party affiliated professor gives he's talking about Joe Biden getting elected and implying that the Chinese Communist Party had something to do with these Biden foundations that were all set up that sounds like kind of a big freaking deal though listen to their analysis of the situation you probably haven't heard this anywhere else check this out this is what Chinese leaders think and because they think that way they're going to push a President Biden around they're going to do things which are dangerous because they're going to have to push back under President Trump the Chinese didn't try this because they were afraid of him so what I'm concerned about is the state of mind of China and we see this from Xi Jinping, the Chinese ruler, all the way to down this guy, Ding Dongshan, this is dangerous so he's out there less than a month after our presidential election saying essentially we admit it we are in control our friends in the business community in the United States Wall Street specifically are on our side up over and against the US government itself the current presidential administration and we pull the strings. Do you think that's bragging? To what extent is that true? Well that part of the video is true. What I was referring to was the politics and pros incident which is very interesting but in terms of the most important points that D That's absolutely true. It's just incredible. Do you understand if even 20 -25 % of everything we're about to cover is true, all of it's true, but even a quarter or twenty percent of a fifth of it was true. How damaged critically the national security of the United States is going to be in the coming years because the president of the United States
The Dan Bongino Show
Vivek Ramaswamy: How to Declare Economic Independence From China
"How do you anticipate in the future handling China So look I think that we have a short window Dan we're a little lucky We can't take credit for this but we're a little lucky that Xi Jinping has shot himself in the foot in the last year to hold on to his third term of power He took the floor out of China's economy This is our moment to declare economic independence from China I think we can do it This is our window because China's already weak And if we declare independence and say that here are the terms if you don't reform no data theft no intellectual property theft Here's how you're actually going to play with state subsidized competition on the global stage Lay out our list of demands You're not going to use our companies as pawns to advance your political agenda through lobbying here in the United States If we do these things then you tell Xi Jinping if not we're actually going to pull out and we beat it Xi Jinping will fold The CCP might fall if we actually economically sever our ties from China So what I would say is I've put in bands to say no CCP buying land in the United States I ban most U.S. businesses from expanding into the Chinese market Until and unless this ECP meets our list of demands and they're in such a weak spot Dan if we can open our eyes and see it that we're working within a short window now to actually deliver that with the spine but that takes fortitude It takes a little more Churchill a little less Chamberlain in our foreign policy That's part of my urgency I understand these issues deeply I've been in exchange student in China In fact in my first company I did business in China That's why I started when I started strive I said no we're not going to do business in China because I understand how the game is played But I understand this deeply that gives me part of my urgency to run for president I think we can do it
AP News Radio
'Clock has hit midnight': China loans pushing world’s poorest countries to brink of collapse
"China has said it special envoy met with Ukraine's president during talks in Kyiv, according to China, the meeting with Ukrainian president Vladimir zelensky came about amid discussions between envoy Li Hui and Ukraine's foreign minister. The envoy's visit followed an earlier Franco between zelensky and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Ukrainian officials say that over two days Lee and Ukrainian foreign minister dimitro kuleba discussed ways to stop Russian aggression, made it clear again that Ukraine wouldn't accept any proposal involving the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflicts. Cheese government says its neutral and wants to serve as a mediator in the 15 monthlong conflict, but has supported Moscow politically and economically. I'm Karen Chammas
AP News Radio
China says Ukraine envoy met with Zelenskyy during talks in Kyiv
"China has said it special envoy met with Ukraine's president during talks in Kyiv, according to China, the meeting with Ukrainian president Vladimir zelensky came about amid discussions between envoy Li Hui and Ukraine's foreign minister. The envoy's visit followed an earlier Franco between zelensky and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Ukrainian officials say that over two days Lee and Ukrainian foreign minister dimitro kuleba discussed ways to stop Russian aggression, made it clear again that Ukraine wouldn't accept any proposal involving the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflicts. Cheese government says its neutral and wants to serve as a mediator in the 15 monthlong conflict, but has supported Moscow politically and economically. I'm Karen Chammas
The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated
The Return of Neo-Appeasement: Are We Doomed to Repeat History?
"The neo appeasement that's in the water. And everyone takes that as an insult. I don't mean it as an insult. I mean it is a genuine ideology that dominated in the 30s from Stanley Baldwin through Neville Chamberlain, which is you can satisfy dictators. You can actually do a deal with a dictator that they will stick to. That's back and it's deep. We saw Reagan beat it in the 80s with the deployment of the parachutes and the cruise missiles, but it's back and the neo appeasers don't want to deal with you. How is the committee going to get that to change? Well, the Democrats on the committee be vital to that change. Well, we're hoping to have our first set of policy recommendations out next week. We're working towards a strong set of recommendations that are focused on Taiwan, as well as a smaller set of strong recommendations that came out of our hearing on the ongoing Uyghur genocide, which leads to something that we're doing from our night. We're having a hearing tomorrow night on the CCP's ongoing economic aggression globally and how we level the playing field. We have this witnesses roger Robinson who designed and was key to the implementation of Ronald Reagan's economic warfare strategy against the Soviet Union. We have bob lighthizer, who served as U.S. trade representative and we have Eric Schmidt, who obviously was the head of Google and brings a private sector experience. And so we're hoping that hearing will then tee up our broader effort, which is the next phase of the committee's work, which is focused on selective economic decoupling and how we win this economic competition. Because a lot of the sentiment for engagement and appeasement comes from the private sector comes from Wall Street. It comes from K street. It comes from Hollywood. It comes from silly Silicon Valley, and there's this naive belief that we can just go back to the status quo ante that somehow we can go back to the good old days and return to the responsible stakeholder hypothesis or the more theme parks we open up in China, the more the better behaves Xi Jinping will become. I disagree with that, but we need to have a conversation with the private sector and get them to understand that there is no such thing as a private business in China.
The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated
Left in Denial: China Planning Invasion of Taiwan
"I had a dinner lunch last week with three smart people. One of whom is a foreign national two of them are Democrats. All three of whom agreed that China wasn't going to attack Taiwan. They would prefer to absorb it by osmosis and take many years and they'll just buy the island like they did Hong Kong. And I thought to myself, boy, oh boy, the left doesn't want to deal with the reality of the chai comes. How do you get through to people like this that we could wake up any morning and see an invasion? Well, let me start by paraphrasing what Churchill said at Westminster college in Fulton, Missouri, which is to say there's no doubt that the Soviet Union does not want war. They want the fruits of war and an unimpeded expansion of their power and ideological objectives. The same is true of Xi Jinping. No doubt he would prefer to absorb Taiwan via political warfare rather than actual warfare. Yet he repeatedly is telling us that he's prepared to use force if necessary to achieve his life's ambition. And what these people need to do is pay attention to what Xi Jinping says when he talks not to the Davos crowd, but when he talks to his own party membership. And on that point, he has been crystal clear that he is prepared to use force if necessary, particularly when, as I believe, will happen, he realizes that if achieving that objective, that objective of reunification of Taiwan with the mainland, can not be achieved via political warfare because the DPP is going to win the election in Taiwan in January of 2024. So if you crane has taught us anything, it is that we should listen to dictators when they tell us in plain language what they intend to do. And if we ignore that because we graphed our own western sensibilities on to Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping and we do mirror imaging, we do so at our own peril.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Chinese policy with Chinese characteristics is those so called policy banks, giving out loans to local governments. The policy bank China development bank that's a major policy bank. The other risk is that president Xi Jinping will want to talk about common prosperity, which will probably turn off investors around the world because common prosperity is not really what they want to hear about because that would probably necessarily mean more crackdowns, right? Yeah, so I think what's happening with the China market is that before that investors will say all China is a long-term play because of economic prospects. The China is changing like we already know the Chinese demographics is changing. Populations started to dip. Young people are not having enough children. And then another problem is all the crackdown. So what global investors would you start to see a lot of so called macro torrents? They come in and out in and out. You know, when there's suddenly opening, they come by very quickly. And then they take profit after 30 40% capital gain. And we already seeing that. And basically China is becoming like Japan that says it's becoming rather than a long-term place. It's becoming a macro tourist play. Wow. Will president Xi Jinping worry about macro tourism or will he accept it? He probably wouldn't like it. I mean, no government won't portfolio hot flows in and out. He probably wouldn't like it. Yeah. The other thing is the developer is surely it looks like there was going to be this massive crackdown, then he eased off for perhaps it was because cobalt zero was just so negative for the economy, but what's to become of the property sector is China already overdeveloped I think so China is a property factor has true stories. If you look at computer one cities like Shanghai and Beijing, those are property markets have stayed pretty firm because they are the financial and commercial hubs where everyone wants to go away. But if you look at like the third year of fourth tier cities, they were being very, very much overdeveloped. I mean, China's urbanization rate had bought. President Xi Jinping actually doesn't want so many people in smaller city, right? So the property sector's biggest problems are the smallest. The ones that you have never heard of. Patients have so much inventory. I don't know what the government is going to do about them. And then, of course, there's the tech crackdown and the most recent chill that went through markets was when Bao fun disappeared, who was apparently the banker to most of the tech companies. So then his company renaissance said that he was helping the authorities with investigations. What does that phrase mean? Helping is better than he has been investigated. That's for sure. So the market speculation is that we hired this act enterprises that occur at a very high salary because that guy's expertise and social network in the SOE banks. I think that all month somehow got my present GCP and high corruption crackdown in the financial services industry because you know, like they own bankers, they have a lot of power in the economy, right? In terms of who they lend money to. And there are now concerns regarding how those tech companies 5 years ago got so much funding in the first place. This might be just president Xi Jinping trying to write the ship. Yes, he's just trying to basically try to have a really crazy credit cycle. And everybody got drunk from chief credit and now we are left with that debt and the investment and president Xi Jinping on that and he's like, I'm going to call back some money or punishment people. That's what he's doing. Bloomberg opinions truly wren continues with us in moments stay tuned. And don't forget we're available as a podcast on Apple, Spotify or your favorite podcast platform
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"5 40 odd Wall Street, I'm Karen Moscow, the dollar rallying this morning stocks are dropping alongside U.S. stock index futures with expectations of steeper rate hikes growing after some hawkish comments from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials. We checked the markets all day long here on Bloomberg, S&P futures are down 7 tenths percent or 29 points. Now futures down half percent or 161 points at NASDAQ futures down 9 tenths of a percent or 116 points. The Dax in Germany is down 8 tenths of a percent. Ten year treasury down ten 30 seconds yield 3.89%, yield on the two year 4.69%. Nymex crude oil is down two and a half percent on a dollar 92 at $76 57 cents a barrel. Comex gold down 1.1% or $19 80 cents at 1832 ounce. The Euro one O 6 three 9 against the dollar British pound 1.19401, and again one 34.91. And as a Bloomberg business flash, now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world, Michael. Karen, thank you very much, president Joe Biden, as he expects to soon speak with president Xi Jinping about the Chinese balloon shot down by the U.S. earlier this month. It is a sign to end a dispute that has highlighted already fragile relations between the world's biggest economies. 5 former Memphis officers are scheduled to make their first court appearance today on murder and other charges in the violent arrest and death of Tyree Nichols. In the NHL, the Devils and capitals lost, the bruins won, Tiger Woods is 5 shots off the lead at the genesis invitational. Max oma and Keith Mitchell share the lead at 7 under and fame baseball broadcaster and former St.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With more on what's going on around the world. Michael good morning. Good morning, Karen. President Joe Biden says he expects to soon speak with president Xi Jinping about the Chinese balloon shot down by the U.S. earlier this month. Biden says though he will make no apologies for taking down the balloon. The EPA is on the ground after a train carrying toxic chemicals rode through eastern Ohio to railed and officials executed a controlled release. The train company Norfolk Southern also issued an apology and pledged support for residents of east Palestine. In the NHL, the Devils and capitals lost bruins won, Tiger Woods, 5 shots off the lead at the genesis invitational max homa and Keith Mitchell shared the lead at 7 under. And fame baseball broadcaster and former St. Louis cardinal star Tim M Carver has died at age 81. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over a 120 countries on Michael Barr, this is Bloomberg Nathan. Thanks, Michael. It's 5 23 on Wall Street. I'm Nathan Hager. This is Bloomberg daybreak. We're joined now by Bloomberg markets reporter, Valerie ty tell as we try to digest this market, some of the latest fed speak, not the least of which, of course, is Cleveland fed president Loretta mester and St. Louis fed chief. James bullard, both saying, yeah, maybe we should have done 50 basis points last time around. Is another 50 basis point rate hike back on the table for this market Valerie? Yeah, it's very notable that both of them mentioned that the doors is a bit open to a 50 basis point rise in the March meeting, but look, you know, okay, going into January, they both advocated for a 50 basis point hike. And you have to remember, going into that January meeting, we had a string of soft data. So the fact that they were still pushing for 50 basis points, almost carries a bit more weight, and their non voters so it didn't show up necessarily as a descent, but watch out for those fed minutes we get next week. There could have been a bit more division within the fed than we had thought going into that January meeting. It is interesting as, well, just thinking about the fed minutes, but we've gotten all this new data that shows inflation is sticking around potentially a little bit longer than this market might have expected. While the economy continues to remain strong. I mean, what could that mean for the fed's path? So the PPI number that we got yesterday, the components that feed through the PCE came in strong, so we had UBS Goldman Barclays all upgrade their forecast for the core PCE next next week. So that's, again, not looking good for the fed. And then that claims data yesterday is just shocking. We are continually getting these record tights within the labor force, claims coming out one 94 K, it's just what the market is happening to grapple with is just shocking. Those claims numbers, you know, that's really the most up to date information that we get, you know, they come weekly. Everyone's recession models is just waiting for a slight uptick in those claims numbers and they continue to surprise below expectations. Yeah, and it feeds into this debate about how much the market should be listening to the fed at this point, what the market is pricing in when it comes to where the policy path could go from here. What's the sense among market participants that you're talking to about whether they're listening to the market when it comes to rates or whether they're listening to the fed? Look, to me, the markets have done a whole lot of movement. We've seen two year yields rise nearly 70 basis points. Now that I'm looking at them again since that February payroll report at the beginning of February. And to me, you could almost, you could almost view it as a 50 basis points pace is back on the table. The front end really should have reacted a bit more. So maybe there is just a bit of exhaustion in this yield rise and we need another kicker. And that kicker is going to be the data. So we get the preliminary February PMIs next week for the U.S. and we get that core PCE number again on Friday. Again, with this door open to 50, if we do see the PMI data come in strong, maybe this core PCE come in higher than even the upgraded forecasts expect. We could see a decent repricing in the front end now that we have to take the pace back into account again. And it does look like we're seeing that repricing and play out in real time here with the two year yield close to 4.7. Valerie keitel Bloomberg markets, thanks for this. Great having you on with us as we watch this market continue to digest the fed speak and the data we're watching futures point to a lower open this morning after the S&P lost more than 1% just yesterday. Up next, we're going to have the very latest on the hawkish fed speak plus. President Biden hopes to take the air out of U.S. China tensions, it's coming up in our 5 30 news. First, let's bring in rob Carolyn for
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Unsustainable. John is the sort of, I guess, social contract between the Chinese people and the government that they accept one party rule. A lot of restrictions in exchange for competent government, good public services, protection, public safety, has that been shattered a bit. Are people expressing kind of discontent in a way that maybe they didn't before? I think it is definitely been stressed by the situation. It's been put under greater stress that compact the social compact, but I think it was under a lot of stress during the lockdowns. I mean, we saw the protests. We saw the impact on the economy. We saw the high rates of youth unemployment that hadn't existed in decades in China. And that, I think, ultimately would have produced more stress on that, that compact between the government and society than what we're going through right now, which is obviously the deaths, the critical illnesses are have had a huge impact on families across the country, but we do seem to be over the peak of that. The economy is coming back. And so I think over the next months, over the next year, the government is going to be able to spend the story, you know, to say, look, what we did was the best thing and ultimately we came out through the other side into a better place. And John before COVID, president Xi Jinping, who had solidified his power and was making very sweeping changes in Chinese society, had really started to crack down on forms of protest, descent, free expression, then head happened before our people now finding that they're able to criticize a little bit more as the government sort of like, you know, allowing a little bit more room to dissent just to avoid pressure building up. I think the government is quite sophisticated in how it manages sort of social what people are talking about, the general discussion around the country. And so for example, when we had so many people upset about the lockdowns, there was it seemed an allowance, a greater allowance for people to criticize that to voice their upsetness. Since then, that has again tightened, very noticeably. We've had reports of many of the those who participate in the protests, people who helped sort of drum up attention for the protests, being detained by the police. So I don't think there is in the greater sense any relaxation of how tightly controlled public opinion is in China. That being said, I think the government is really sensitive to making changes sort of course correction when it has to to make sure that people are not are not being pushed to an extreme when it comes to what they think about the government, what they think about policy with their undergoing in their lives. And so, you know, in that respect, I don't think
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A massive COVID surge. As we talked about on this show the other day that China's 5 balloon, the U.S. shot down is about the only China related story making headlines right now, especially as news develops that China's balloon surveillance program was more widespread than anyone knew. And we'll continue to follow that story. But as China tries to contain the fallout from that incident overseas, at the same time, is trying to contain another problem at home, a wave of COVID cases that overwhelm the country. You may remember in December, Chinese citizens, protested in the streets against the government's strict COVID zero lockdowns, and soon after, president Xi Jinping relaxed the restrictions in China has begun to reopen. People are out and about again. But as feared, that's also meant a staggering spike in COVID cases throughout China. More than a billion people are believed to have been infected. And it's put an enormous strain on China's health system, which hasn't been able to keep up. My colleagues John Liu in Beijing and Shia zeb in Singapore join me now to talk about how China is coping with so many sick people all at once. John in these widespread protests at the end of last year, people were very angry. They wanted an immediate end to COVID zero lockdowns and they got them. Of course, we've been talking all about the downside of opening up so quickly with our preparation. How have people responded to this? You know, the government did what they asked. And now they're the consequences. Have people been patient accepting of what happened here? I mean, I think China's a lot like, you know, the U.S. and many other parts of the world where the public opinion is quite split on the issue. There are lots of people working age people, people who have businesses who are really happy that the economy is reopened, we've just had the lunar new year festival, which is the most important holiday in China and many people were able to go home to see family for the first time in many years. Because there are no longer these restrictions on travel internally, but at the same time, we talked about the large number of deaths that we've seen across the country. That's obviously impact the families all over. And we have actually seen some criticism online. People saying, you know, people who didn't want to open up or were against opening up, saying, blaming these deaths on those who protest the saying, look, look what that gotten us. And so there is this balance between pro and con, people who oppose and people who supported the reopening. But I think looking forward, if you listen to the government spin on the way on what's happening, you will see that there is much more of an emphasis on the economy rebounding growth returning. People getting back to work, job prospects for the young, the newly graduated and I think that will be the emphasis going forward
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"As we talked about on the show the other day, that China's spy balloon, the U.S. shot down is about the only China related story making headlines right now, especially as news develops that China's balloon surveillance program was more widespread than anyone knew. And we'll continue to follow that story. But as China tries to contain the fallout from that incident overseas, at the same time, is trying to contain another problem at home, a wave of COVID cases that overwhelm the country. You may remember in December, Chinese citizens, protested in the streets against the government's strict COVID zero lockdowns, and soon after, president Xi Jinping relaxed the restrictions in China has begun to reopen. People are out and about again. But as feared, that's also meant a staggering spike in COVID cases throughout China. More than a billion people are believed to have been infected. And it's put an enormous strain on China's health system, which hasn't been able to keep up. My colleagues John Liu in Beijing and shards are in Singapore, joining out to talk about how China is coping with so many sick people all at once. John, let me start with you the last time you were on this program in November. It was the height of the protests against the COVID zero lockdowns. And you said three things were likely to happen the first was that the protests would subside. They wouldn't become more widespread. That the Chinese government, which has a history of responding to social unrest, would likely ease the lockdowns. And that if that happened, there would be a wildfire of COVID cases across the country. And all three of those things fairly quickly came true. Can you now just say exactly what's happening now in Beijing and other cities, now that COVID has spread so far so fast. Well, we saw a huge uptick in infections, widespread throughout the country. Lots of disruption as a result of that. We had a big increase in deaths across the country specifically among the elderly. We've seen cases where hospitals have been packed with people who are sick, looking for care, a shortage of medicines. Unfortunately, very, very busy crematoriums and funeral homes across the country. That was sort of the situation we had in late December, early January, trying to report it about 60,000 deaths for the month through January 12th. There was almost 13 deaths in a week in early January. Since then though, towards the end of the month end of January, the number of infections seems to have peaked, it seems to have plateaued. It started to come down
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Door? Dan tank is here to help us understand he's based in Hong Kong and overseas Bloomberg's government coverage across Asia. Dan, can you talk a little bit about this idea that Xi is trying to present an alternative to the western led world order? We've seen this for a couple of years and it's really been more prevalent after the trade war with Donald Trump. The last party Congress, which is basically China's version of election, was in 2017. And that event, she basically said China's standing tall in the east. And after that, the U.S. sort of took that as China coming out in the world and saying, wow, you know, they're really catching up to us quickly here. And you saw Trump with the trade war trying to keep China down a little bit. All that's done is kind of reaffirm China's notion that, okay, the U.S. and the global institutions that existed don't work for China anymore in the same ways that they do and that the U.S. is kind of actively using them now to keep China down. So we saw that last month when Xi Jinping had the latest party Congress and essentially set himself up to rule China for at least the next ten years, if not for life. And in that speech he basically made the point that China, first of all, I was in backing down on any of its core interests and secondly that Chinese modernization offers a new choice for humanity. But as Xi Jinping mean by Chinese modernization, it's the Chinese system to legitimacy of a system that doesn't depend on elections. And a lot of what Xi Jinping and Chinese officials have done, even when they contrast with America as they say, look, America has its own version of democracy, and that's great. China has its own version of democracy, and that's also great. And China's version is, of course, not democracy at all in any sense of how one would define it in terms of elections and transparency and openness and free information. That sort of thing. So essentially it provides authoritarian regimes cover to go along their merry way in a way that's, you know, they don't have anyone judging them or seeking to overthrow them or in any way sort of sanctioning them or punishing them, Xi Jinping really now on a conservative diplomatic mission to win over kind of the third countries or the swing states. You might call them and LATAM is a huge part of that. I'm just winning over these countries that really don't want to pick sides between the U.S. and China. Has the U.S. being kind of slow to recognize and to respond to China's advances throughout that region? Definitely, there's really no doubt about it
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"China the most vocal since president Xi Jinping took his leadership role, protests have spread from zhejiang to Beijing, Shanghai, were huge crowds gather calling for president Xi to step down, as well as disband the Communist Party. Meanwhile, authorities are set to resume local transportation after a month, gradually and orderly, but adviser doctor Anthony Fauci says the COVID zero approach to fighting the pandemic is not effective without a long-term strategy, Fauci also says he's puzzled by China's insistence of using only vaccines manufactured in China. White House COVID response coordinator doctor afshar says it is incredibly important for people to update their COVID vaccines heading into the holiday season. New Canadian strategy for paper boosts the military spending and expands ties to the indo Pacific to forge stronger ties with Asia allies, also will carefully screen Chinese owned enterprises and North Korea state media says it's received new support from president Xi. In San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg. Brian back to you. All right, the time here is about ten minutes before the top of the hour. I mentioned that the BBC had one of its journalists beaten and kicked by Chinese police during COVID protests in Shanghai. That's according to a story by the press association, citing the BBC broadcaster. It's a cameraman, Edward Lawrence, that this story says, who is attacked while covering the demonstrations in Shanghai yesterday on Sunday. A BBC spokesman told the press association that Lawrence was held for several hours before being released, adding that he was beaten and kicked by police during the arrest. From The Wall Street Journal U.S. officials fear the Ukraine war is slowing the delivery of weapons to Taiwan and said to be a backlog of weapons running to the tune of about $19 billion. The delay is hurting efforts to arm the island as tensions with China escalate. From the South China morning post, WhatsApp has dismissed a media report claiming that a database containing phone numbers of some half a billion users have been leaked and put up for sale. This was in an article by cyber news, it reported an advertisement on a hacking forum and offered to sell a database containing the mobile phone numbers of 487 million users, some 3 million said to be from Hong Kong, a meta spokesman, said that the report was speculative and based on unsubstantiated, screenshots. And a final note for you from the Financial Times, the value of rare scotch whiskies has jumped by more than a 5th this year. That's due to younger investors looking for tangible assets in these turbulent times. And that is a look at the media. It's now 9 minutes before the top of the art Juliet back to you. Thank you, Brian. Joining us is Greg potel lead partner global consumer practice at Carney on the assessment of Black Friday, and what we
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg Wall Street week with David Weston from Bloomberg radio. Ten years of remarkable growth. That's what president Xi Jinping of China focused on in his speech to the party Congress last Saturday. Brought about the historical rise. In China's economic strength. In a past decade, China's GDP has grown from 55 trillion to 114 million and come to account for 18.5% of the world economy. Not a bad track record during Xi's time in office, but if president Xi had been willing to go back to before he was president, the story is even more dramatic. Since Deng Xiaoping initiated the open door policy in 1978, China's economy has gone from under $150 billion to nearly $18 trillion last year. Now that growth is slowing down with possible repercussions for the rest of the world, according to the head of the WTO. If China's economy continues to slow, the way we are seeing that will have a big impact on what happens to the world economy. And U.S. officials like deputy treasury secretary Wally adeyemo say that the open door isn't as open as it used to be. In addition to having resilient supply chains, we want to make sure that American companies are competing on a level playing field with companies in China and around the world and that's why we've taken actions like restraining the ability to ship some key components. But Bridgewater's ray dalio who's been back and forth to China over the last 30 years insists that, despite all the problems, he wouldn't bet against Beijing over the long term. I think the longer term picture in China is still bright because I know the people and I know the culture and I think it's good, but they have major issues now. And
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"As for those yields, the benchmark ten year at four 12, the two year is at four 53, which at the markets for you every 15 minutes, I'm John Tucker that should Bloomberg business flash. This is balance of power on Bloomberg television and radio. I'm David Wesson we want to turn now to Beijing, China where they're having the 20th party Congress. We've already heard from president Xi with his two hour long remarks. We're waiting to see who the new leadership is going to be, assuming the president Xi will be the president still, but he'll be some other changes at senior levels. To take us through exactly what we are seeing because we all care about the second largest economy in the world. We welcome now, David dollar. He's senior fellow at the brookings institution. Mister dollar earlier serves in the US Treasury's economic and financial emissary to China. So thanks so much, David, for being back with us. What did we learn, particularly on that economic front out of president Xi's speech? Because I heard a lot about politics, I heard a lot about security. I'm not sure how much I heard about economic policy. I think indirectly Xi Jinping's speech told us quite a bit about their economic policy. The basic message was status quo. He spent quite a bit of time defending the zero tolerance policy toward COVID. I think they will ease up a little bit on the various restrictions, but there won't be any sudden change in the COVID policy. I think that was disappointing for a lot of Chinese people. He also made it clear there's a role for the private sector in China's development, but it's subservient to the state and the party and I think that's been a problem for China over the last one to two years is cracking down on the private sector, which is the source of dynamism. So I mostly took away that they're going to be continuing the same policies of the last few years and they have generally brought about a slowdown in growth to much lower level that had been occurring as of a few years ago. Well, that's exactly what I was going to ask about. I mean, goodness knows it's been an economic miracle since 1978. When Deng Xiaoping had his open door policy and they've done amazing things, but it is slowing down is what worked in the past going to work in the future. Is it a good strategy to say, let's just keep going the way we're going? Well, basically, they were going to slow down to some extent. That's almost inevitable. They had been growing at ten, and that's not realistic to keep that up to middle income. The question is how much, how far will the growth rate fall, they certainly have the potential to continue to grow at about 5 if they had really good policies, but I don't see that coming out of this particular leadership consensus forecast for this year is 3.2 you probably saw they took the extraordinary move of postponing the publication of their GDP data, their third quarter data was probably a little bit better than the second quarter, but basically it's showing that the whole year is going to be disappointing and some of that is short term and cyclical, but I think the general expectation among experts is, you know, there'll be struggling to grow in the three to 4% range over the next few years. There's no question that president Xi wants I think what he calls development. He wants economic growth. At the same time, given the tenor of his remarks and frankly his administration in recent years is he's sending a signal that if he has to choose between ideology and economics he'll pick ideology every time. I think he would phrase it slightly different basically, if you look at his long speech, one of the most common words was Antoine, which means security or safety. He talked about health security, technology, security, military security, et cetera. So I think from the leadership point of view, there clearly favoring security over economic development. There really wasn't a lot in that speech about economic development. You have to read the tea leaves in order to glean what's likely to happen. Well, in fairness, security is something that often comes into the discussion from the United States side and talking about China these days, and particularly when it comes to technology. And some of the issues, including the export control, limitations have been put on by the Biden administration. We talked with Virginia senator Mark Warner yesterday about this very question about security and the competition with China in tech. I do think the long-term issue of this century is technology competition with China and as chairman of the intelligence committee, I'm working on in a bipartisan way is what other areas. Do we need to make sure that China doesn't win the technology race? So here's senator Warner saying, we want to make sure China doesn't win the technology war. President Xi Jinping is I understood what he was saying is we were going to make sure we win that war. It's a competition, I should say at least. So who's got the upper hand? Well, the United States definitely has the upper hand for the moment. We have superior technology in most areas. We're pretty far ahead of China. It's good to have bipartisan consensus that we need to maintain that. So I'm happy to see more resources going into research and development. And some of the protections that have been put in place around exports and foreign investment. I think all of this is quite sensible. So China is going to make a big push to catch up. And they'll probably succeed in some specific areas, but it's unlikely that we're going to see a single clear winner or certainly it's unlikely that China would be a single clear winner given all the advantages the United States still has. So keep in mind, you might get a kind of mixed solution where each country is quite technologically advanced in specific areas and we're continuing to have a high level of trade between China and the United States. We're walling off certain areas, but everything else is still going up, frankly, for the moment. The economic relations trade and otherwise between China and the United States a priority for either country because there was a time that we talked about China and awful lot of it was about the economy about WTO and about trade and things like that, increasingly it seems like what we're hearing from officials in both countries is about national security and actually putting up some pretty substantial barriers to one another. Yeah, it's an interesting equilibrium at the moment, you know, as they say, we still have a lot of trade. We're going to hit a new high in our trade with China during 2022. But frankly, a lot of our partners are more deeply integrated with China than we are. So South Korea and Japan, Germany, for example. They're all very deeply integrated, and they're not going to want to see decoupling from China. In the United States, we're trying to decouple in some high-tech areas related to security without having a more general decoupling. Our leaders like Tony blinken have talked about, were not in favor of a complete decoupling with the Chinese economy, which would be very disruptive and damaging to U.S. interests. So it's a real challenge to navigate that. One more, David, as I understand it this weekend, we will learn about the new leadership as they come up from behind a curtain, I guess. It sounds a little bit like a game show, very dramatic, presumably we'll see president Xi, get his third term, which will be historic. No question. And we'll learn about the senior leadership. Do you think that senior leadership will indicate anything new and surprising to us? It will tell us a little bit because for some key positions like premiere, there are only a small number of candidates and some are really cronies of Xi Jinping and others are more technocrats with an independent track record. So it'll be interesting to see if we get a little bit of diversity on that standing committee of the political bureau. I wouldn't exaggerate clearly Xi Jinping is going to be in control. And it might even be smart on his part to accept some of these technocrats because they do have quite serious economic challenges. But let's see if it's all Xi Jinping cronies or if there's a little bit of that technocratic flavor. That will give us some indication of whether they're worried about growth and likely to reverse
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And I'm Richard Salomon. We are having a look at how the first training day of the week is going to be shaping up. Let's get it over to Bloomberg's Doug Christmas and certainly there'll be not much market reaction, but a great deal of interest in Xi Jinping had to say as he opened the People's Congress there in Beijing. Let's get into Bloomberg's not Christmas. Yeah, we're going to talk a little bit more about that when we check in with Ed Baxter momentarily. But I think for markets in Asia Rashad, it's going to be a reaction to the sell off that we had in U.S. equities on Friday. A lot of inflation concerns after inflation expectations reported by the University of Michigan spiked. And so we had at the S&P 500 finishing down more than 2%. If you look at the bond market, a sell off in treasuries, yields pop, the ten year right now is just under 4.02%. A rally in the dollar Friday with the Bloomberg dollar spot index picking up about 7 tenths of 1%. As you guys indicated a short while ago, markets will soon pass judgment on a prime minister Liz truss U turn, economic U turn will have a closer look at that momentarily. But the pound right now has been getting knocked around here in the foreign exchange. We rallied in the overnight session to about a dollar 13 right now we're trading a dollar 1225 against the U.S. currency. Also keeping a very close eye on the Japanese currency Friday in New York trading, we were week two, one 48 70 against the greenback capping a straight streak I should say of 9 weekly losses for the N where the dollar is concerned. Right now about one 48 60. We heard from the Japanese finance minister being a deeply concerned about the rapid volatility in the foreign exchange and a lot of the weakness that we have seen in yen. We'll also talk about Jim bullard and what he had to say in terms of fed policy will do that after we update global news. We've got to define president Xi Jinping telling the world that China is ready to stand its ground and defend its sovereignty. Let's check in with Ed Baxter Eddie. Thank you, Douglas, I exactly right in front of the party Congress she's clear message was that China has made great progress in all areas and anybody who wants to thwart that continued rise will fail contained in his two hour speech was a message of Hong Kong is now on the right path. In a face of turbulent development in Hong Kong, the central government exercises overall jurisdiction over its special administrative regions as prescribed by China's constitution and basic law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and ensure that Hong Kong is mischief by patriots. Which he also says through a translator dovetails into China's sovereignty regarding Taiwan. We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort. But we will never promise to renounce the use of force. And we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary. Regarding COVID, she says they have added to the supremacy of the people and supremacy of life in China. He says they have and will continue to adhere to the dynamic zero COVID policy regarding the economy. He says that he will increase the income of low income people expand middle class income standardize the order of income distribution and standardized wealth of accumulation mechanisms. She says the country will accelerate innovation and fight corruption. He says the Marxist party is even more united. Now, reaction to Bloomberg, Eurasia, China analyst Neil Thomas says the speech showed a new focus on science and education and as a reflection of just how much she is betting on innovation as one of the solutions to China's economic problems. Scott Kennedy, senior adviser at the center for strategic international studies, says the language of the speech is all about trying to establish a different kind of international system for what we've seen since World War II. And fund manager at Shenzhen long-term assets management says the standout of the speech was the emphasis on economic development contrary to what had been floated before the speech. Meanwhile, China may further relax its border restrictions with Hong Kong, including shortening mandatory hotel quarantine for arrivals from the city, South China morning post says a 7 day could be cut to four. Well, that's in a capsule. The two hour speech. All right, Brian, back to you. All right, and thanks very much 6 minutes past the hour, all throughout the program. We'll be getting response to the speech yesterday and the future direction for China here. We'll get it through our analysts on the program. Let's take a look at some other news this morning. British prime minister Liz truss will host a reception for the cabinet on Monday night to get members input into the medium term fiscal plan. Last Friday, trust made an economic U turn. She rolled back her planned tax cuts and sacked the Chancellor of the exchequer quasi quark Tang. The new Chancellor Jeremy hunt said nothing is off the table when asked if he would abandon more of the prime minister's economic plan. It may mean another U turn on parts of the mini budget. Last Friday, trust requested that unstick to the remaining measures in her fiscal plan, but then over the weekend, hunt made it clear in interviews that calming the markets is his priority. St. Louis fed president James bullard has left open the possibility of a larger December interest rate increase. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points for the third straight meeting last month to a target range of between three and three and a quarter percent. Officials projected a 125 basis points of tightening of the rest of the year. That suggests that 75 basis points move in November and 50 basis points in December the bullocks as it's still too soon to make that call a further 25 basis points of tightening is penciled in for next year according to the officials estimates. All right, the time is 7 and a half minutes past the hour. Let's get to our guest. It's Steve sons Nick, chief strategist at interactive brokers. Steve, we also had kind of a three day delay on the statement from the G 20. And the headlines kind of cute. The guardians of the global economy have been told to buckle up. That doesn't exactly inspire all that much confidence in the immediate future for you, Steve, is that parallel or opportunity over the next 6 to 12 months? Good morning, Brian. I'm going to say both. I think in the short term, it's probably a bit more perilous than not. There are so many cross currents that we're having to deal with right now. And uncertainty is easier to deal with when the Monet fiscal and monetary winds are at your back. When they're in your face, it's just that much harder to deal with and it's so much harder to predict. The reason I say that
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Been double vaccinated double boosted symptoms are mild and I really appreciate your inquiry that you're concerned. And President Biden is a bit fatigued and has other mild symptoms, according to White House press secretary, karine Jean Pierre. Chinese president Xi Jinping has sent the message to President Biden carrying wishing him a quick recovery. That's according to Chinese media. The president joins a rising national COVID wave dominated by a new variant, Bloomberg's renita young joins us live with more good morning granita. Good morning, Nathan. This new variant known as BA .5 easily evades immune defenses in the U.S. more than 170,000 new cases were reported on July 19th. That's more than 6 times higher than the level reported back in April. Meantime, Los Angeles considers bringing back indoor mask mandates in San Francisco virus levels in wastewater have climbed higher than this past winter. But although the hospitalization rate has also been inching up since April, it's still well below previous peaks. Live in New York, I'm renita young Bloomberg day break. All right, ready to thank you. Well, turning to the markets now. Now today, futures are lower following disappointing earnings from a snap. That stock is down almost 29% this morning. Other social media stocks are taking a hit as well. Facebook parent met a platforms is down four and a half percent and Google owner alphabet is down 2.7%. And the earnings continue to roll in today, Karen Dow members, American Express and Verizon are scheduled to report this morning and Twitter opens its books before the market open. And futures, again, lower S&P futures down 12 points down features down 19 NASDAQ futures down 67 and the ten year treasury of 1830 seconds yield 2.80%. Straight ahead your latest local headlines, plus a check of sports and this is Bloomberg. Thanks Karen 5 33
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg daybreak Middle East. Our top stories this morning. The ram master says that the fed is just at the beginning of raising rates. Meanwhile, Jay Powell insists a recession can be avoided, but warns the task is getting tougher. The path to act of 2% inflation, while still retaining a sustaining a strong labor market, we believe we can do that. That is our aim. There's no guarantee that we can do that. It's obviously something that's going to be quite challenging, and I would also say that the events of the last few months have made it significantly more challenging. John is economy shows further signs of improvement, but president Xi Jinping is sticking with COVID zero saying strategies such as herd immunity would have unimaginable consequences. President Biden praises turkey's Erdoğan for finally relenting to Sweden and Finland joining NATO and for helping to get grain out of the Ukraine. And Uber raises first in the United Arab Emirates for the second time this year amid a surge in gasoline prices that has I paced the increases in neighboring oil rich states. It's just gone 8 a.m. across the Emirates, some men's grain in Dubai, and I'm used to Medellín right alongside you. So stock futures, leaning to the downside, we have to China data to digest and finally Wall Street analysts are moving on some of the earnings estimate JPMorgan downgrading some of the biggest tech companies on the S&P 500 mini were called down by about three tenths of 1%. We're really stood out to me. It's a note from George bawley, 60 year Wall Street veteran. He says the S&P 500 will sink to 3100. That's 35% of where we are now. He says that will be just a normal cyclical adjustment. What also caught my attention is some of the earnings announcements guidance. Specifically when restoration hardware it's not every day we talk about this high end hold furnishing in the U.S. the stock sliding after cutting revenue forecasts on slowing demand. The dire macro warning, they're seeing revenues contracting two to 5 digits in 2023 currently we are down and have post market about 5%. The consumer is in trouble. The struggle is clear as daylight on days like this Bed Bath & Beyond is another example, cruise stocks getting beached. I want to talk about energy also because oil is set for the first monthly decline. This year before the OPEC plus meeting, basically the rubber stamping is expected of a modest increase. Sure. But what really stood out was the inventory data out of the United States, stockpiles there, got released, and that shows that it's tight everywhere. RBC saying, $150, $175 a barrel, $200 a barrel at the end of this year, pick your number because it all speaks in favor of that kind of scenario, Manus. The question for the bond market use of is whether they're ready to declare that central banks are winning the fight and inflation. Now, you've seen rates at tip a little bit higher ever so slightly this morning. Two messages come through loud and clear from the federal Loretta master saying, it's wrong. It would be more costly to believe that inflation expectations are well angered. Yes, the break evens have rolled over dramatically. The 5 year break evens have imploded from 3.1% downsides from 3.76% down to 2.61%. So inflation expectations are rolling over. So what is a bond market thing? Well, the fed's looking for 4% at the end of next year. This is what the deck deck spread is saying, already they are pricing in 3% by the end of the year next year. So 3.08%. That is 50 basis points below where December futures are indicated at the moment. So the bond market is beginning to believe that the shakedown from the central banks is beginning to work. What does that mean for the dollar? Let's have a look at the dollar. I mean, you're up 7 and a half percent year to date. It was up 9% at its zenith. But you hear pile talking about the inflation fight will cause a bit of pain. In that sense of pain in terms of raising rates in economic pain, where do you want to be? And as Loretta master says, we are just at the beginning of raising rates. So there's a tussle between the market and the fed as usual. Tussles with the Asian market session every day. What's going on Jews? Well, it is a bit of a tussle because Mattis, you mentioned there that better than expected PMI data that we had coming through out of China, but at the same time you've got president Xi still saying that the path for them is COVID zero, but you also have that relaxation of some of those quarantine restrictions in place earlier in the week. So you are seeing an upside in China's CSI 300 very much taking that positive momentum and as we know we've been talking about this market getting very close to bull market territory, Hong Kong is a little bit more flat and we are seeing weakness in some of the other markets across Asia and this is as we continue to really be worried by global growth concerns that they are down by about one and a half percent. It's certainly been a better session for Asian currencies though today and that is on the back of that PMI data. We've had the one game we've had South Korea's one rebound as well. If you own a limb who manages FX over at malayan bank here in Singapore saying that this better pay my print out of China could be soothing sentiment and give a bit of a breather for Asian currencies which are actually on track for their worst quarter since 1997, creating a different dilemma for central bankers in this region. Let's quickly have a look at that PMI data. I know you're going to get into it with more detail with ender, but it was a bait in terms of that official PMI 50.2 from 49.6 in May that's the first time since February. We have seen that back in that expansionary territory and the non manufacturing at its highest in more than a year still a lot of challenges though for this economy and still overall estimates of about 4.1% growth for China this year, Manus, which is well down from that 5 and a half percent that they had flagged. Yep, was certainly going down in history as the worst as the worst first half for a number of sectors of the market deals. We'll catch up with you a little bit later on. So Jay palm, he says the U.S. economy is in strong shape and the Central Bank can reduce inflation without causing a recession even though that task has become trickier. The path back to 2% inflation, while still retaining a sustaining a strong labor market, we believe we can do that. That is our aim. There's no guarantee that we can do that. It's obviously something that's going to be quite challenging, and I would also say that the events of the last few months have made it significantly more challenging. Meanwhile, Paul's colleague Loretta master says the fed is only at the beginning of raising rates. Let's get more with our global economics and policy editor. Kathleen Hayes, Kathleen, good to have you with us. So it was an overall hulk ish tone from that panel at francine moderated. Your first take. Well, when it comes to Jay Powell, and I think he's the person who sort of led the pack today, he is ready. He's made it very clear he is ready to risk recession in order to get inflation down. He said the big risk is the fed doesn't do enough. Not enough to fight inflation. The big risk isn't recession. When he was asked about this very question, could you push too far? Listen to how he responded. Is there a risk that we would go too far certainly? There's a risk. But I wouldn't agree that it's the biggest risk to the economy. I think the bigger mistake to make. Let's put it that way. Would be to fail to restore price stability. Powell said there's a clock running. You can't let inflation expectations get entrenched. This is classic central banker many max strategy. You minimize the worst. The maximum mistake you could make. And in his eyes, in the fed's eyes, a recession, yes, it wouldn't be nice. But the worst outcome would be inflation that doesn't come down, a fed that has to be even more aggressive. Loretta mester says, the fed has to act forcefully in her remarks at center. She also pointed out that fed research shows that you get better outcomes when the fed worries too much about inflation expectations, not when it doesn't worry enough. As you said, just the beginning of rates, she sees the funds rate at 4% next year or a bit above, very different from the bond market right now. And I think we can kind of put the two sides together is this. If
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We will go with you. And Ukraine is a horrid example he says. We are ready to face threats of Russian aggression. Because quite frankly, there's no choice. It's been the most significant abuse of power. Since World War II. Australian prime minister Anthony albanese is warned the Chinese government to learn the lessons of Russia's failures in Ukraine, have an easy and Madrid for the NATO meeting, his visitor and says the globe can stand united against Russia and it's a warning to China. China has made the biggest COVID zero shift today travelers will now have to spend just 7 days in quarantine facility then monitor at home for three days. Hong Kong's incoming government is considering cutting the time inbound travelers must spend in hotel quarantine and may go to 5 days followed by two days of home isolation. And Hong Kong police have now confirmed president Xi Jinping will attend the events marking the celebration of the 25th. The quickly arranged meeting of the January 6th committee featuring a glimpse of what it was like on January 6th to be in president Trump's inner circle, has told by Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows aid Cassidy Hutchinson, one of Trump wanting guns to be led into a speech and rally of Mark Meadows chief of staff Cassidy Hutchinson saying Trump was held back from going to the capitol. There were discussions about him having another speech outside of the capitol before going in. I know that there is a conversation about him going into the House chamber at one point. Yeah, and having to be held out of going to the capitol itself, knowing about the threats against Mike Pence and saying that this is Trump saying that Pence deserved it and Mark Meadows and Rudy Giuliani seeking pardons, and that attorney pat cipollini told chief of staff Meadows that the president needed to stop the mob. I remember pat saying to him something to the effect of
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Putin regime will decline Is there a role for China to play in trying to resolve this conflict or is that too much to ask at this point It's not just too much to ask I think strategically China thought that Russia is a powerful ally in the 5000 word declaration that Xi Jinping and Putin published during the Olympics suggest that Russia and China and tandem were about to challenge the United States Well it's not going so well for Russia and China is growing lessons and trying to distance itself which is noticed that Chinese oil companies said that they're not going to trade in Russian oil if I remember correctly So the Chinese are facing a dire choice between being a good ally To Russia or losing hundreds of billions of dollars because of sanctions And I would add just one more thing If we go towards secondary sanctions sanctioning companies the trade with Russia the Chinese will suffer a lot and they don't want to do that But don't want to be in that hotspot in that hot seat of being Russia's enabler Ariel 20 seconds what's the endgame for Putin He could drag it It's putting Castro under sanctions and just dragging it onto he dies in office or there is a serious pushback and he may be removed like Nikita Khrushchev who mishandled the Cuban missile crisis in 1964 He was removed Ariel good stuff always a pleasure to have the chance to talk.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"xi jinping" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Domestic demand has been struggling given a number of setbacks including a real estate downturn a power crunch and outbreaks of the delta variant In Hong Kong and Rosalind chin Bloomberg daybreak Europe And sticking with China president Xi Jinping will meet with the Communist Party one last time That's where he's set to unveil a new doctrine and could let could let him rule for life Bloomberg's Greater China editor Jenny marsh has the details From Monday to Thursday about 400 senior officials will meet behind closed doors in Beijing for the annual policy plan of meeting The summit runs from November 8th to 11th in kicks off the closest thing China has to a campaign season and set to top the agenda the first official declaration on Chinese history in 40 years President Xi Jinping is expected to break precedent and unveil a new doctrine that secures him a third 5 year term extending his indefinite rule In Hong Kong I'm Jenny marsh Bloomberg daybreak Europe Now Elon Musk's love of Twitter will now have him selling a good deal of his Tesla stock Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story That amounts to 10% which roughly comes out to $21 billion Musk launched the Twitter poll Saturday asking his 3.5 million followers if he should sell 10% and said he would abide by the decision Well a majority 58% said sell Musk says he is prepared either way but any outcome Musk uses Twitter to stoke interest and keep it alive and this certainly did In San Francisco I met Baxter Bloomberg daybreak Europe Yes certainly got a lot of attention on Twitter Now to corporate news a SoftBank reported a record loss at his vision fund unit That's as the value of public holdings like coupon and DD global plunged the unit's loss in the third quarter was $7.3 billion that is the vision fund's worst performers ever SoftBank also announced it no longer lists several technology giants among its public holdings including Amazon and TSMC So that's some of our top corporate stories and other news wrapped up Let's take a global view though get.
The Propaganda Report
"xi jinping" Discussed on The Propaganda Report
"A way to lock in the democrats dominance in politics the relationships they have with corporations already. Just because there's too much money being spent on it. If you can only guys with a little less money maybe you want to are in these regulatory barriers like in any case where the more hoops to jump through the more. You have an advantage over a little guy. The reason they have. Lobbying is so that companies can ask politicians. Hey tell them. This is our interest. We have employees whatever but when it gets to the point where it's billions of dollars just for global corporations. It's it is not. It is not helpful to american companies of the people who have a vested interest illegitimate vested interest in political decisions. Yeah and those companies. That are making those decisions not to support. People who quote supported the insurrection politicians or not to allow them to raise money through them. That is right in line with the standards of the great reset the social credit score for corporations the equivalent of that. If you show that you are social. You're putting on social justice. Initiatives climate change initiatives. You are in. You are with the great reset and you're going to have the advantage of getting around the regulations that are going to crush on the other businesses around the world to give them that worldwide monopoly. Kind of as you. You were mentioning earlier. also yesterday. Some of the opening opening ceremonies opening panel discussions. They have a major theme of what they're what they're gonna be trying to spread around the world policies as long term strategy to create anti-racist organisations. And we know from the indivisible activism training that we went through they talked about anti-racism what it is. Anti racism is constantly and forever doing things to show that you are not racist goal that you can never become not racist you can only live in anti-racist lifestyles kind of like following. Jesus you always have to ask. Yes and they want to turn corporations into anti racist corporations which means constantly doing programs showing programs demonstrating them to the public to prove that you are not a.