3 Burst results for "William Hagers"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"william hagers" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And Luxembourg. Those are the two big ones. So during the pension fund meltdown last September, the FT said it was predominantly pension van vehicles based in Europe that were the ones the beery were bailing out. So now the FCA, the BOE, are writing to the EU counterparts to say is regulation and proving are things stable and banking the governor Andrew Bailey last week told MPs he didn't think things would improve because the EU won't change their financial rules until 2025, which by that point the Brexit passport would be gone. So effectively, there are now sort of questions about the UK's financial stability because there are so many assets in Europe. Okay, next to the times and William Hager's writing there today, he warns watch out Rishi sunak, low tax looms are circling. Not just any loon Stephen Tory MPs, which coming from a former leader of the Conservative Party is quite the slur. So he called the mini budget the biggest electoral disaster in 13 years of power. And so he also says that in a recent meeting of back then, just risky student accent, you guys get that I can't just do tax cuts and he reported that one MP was saying, I do want tax cuts and I'm not an idiot. So William haig, very diplomatically in the times today is trying to say he thinks you are an idiot unnamed Tory MP. He says that central banks might be underestimating inflation and combating inflation while having tax cuts has been proven not to work just last autumn and he says Tories need to spend. He says there's Ukraine. There is a need for upping the defense budget. There's an even combat in green subsidies. That's a nod to Biden's inflation reduction act, and he says these things involve economic competence and sometimes competence isn't just offering a tax cut. Okay. And take a story onto your third story, then James, which I'm intrigued by because I heard you mention it in the headlines, putting the O back in ONS, you've got really tell us about this one. So we all make mistakes, Anna, and as a newsroom I think we're supposed to say it's all about being transparent and honest with their mistakes. And I can give the O and S a big credit for doing that. So what is really fascinating is we all have a big worry about the UK's productivity problem. It's being sort of it's chronic and it's being attributed to sort of weak private and public sector investment. So it was fascinating when last year we thought the UK had been the second best in the G 7, only beaten by Japan improving productivity and that was the story maybe of like, what can we learn from the pandemic and improving work culture? It turns out that the ONS had added two years worth of output per hour growth versus one year. And we're actually the worst bar France rather than being the best by Japan. And so instead of a maybe a takeaway about how we're becoming a more productive nation, how working from home has changed the world. It might actually be, oh, we still have a long-term productivity problem and we need to have a real think about how we get out of that. This sounds like something that I would do, frankly, is the idea of just like adding two things together and coming up and being like, yeah, that's definitely right. The FT's Chris Giles put on Twitter that he thinks it must have happened on an Excel spreadsheet. He was like, this is how you get two cobs together. That's how it happens. So we all make mistakes. Another thing that I could see me doing as well is not being very good at excel spreadsheets. All right, James Wilcox, thank you very much for that review. After newspapers this morning. Okay, let's get into some of the latest data outs of the UK in terms of public finances. And the latest data shows that rise in cost of the government's efforts to protect consumers and businesses from the worst of the energy price shock, our UK correspondent Lizzie Burton is here with us. So I mean, lots of governments around the world spent a lot during COVID to shield in some way their population. What's the UK, what does the UK data look like then Lizzie has got this far? These figures worse than expected. Yes. The budget deficit in December, excluding banking groups was 27.4 billion pounds. We had been expecting economists had been expecting 17.3 billion pounds in November, it was 22 billion pounds, so these are not happy numbers for the treasury. It's the highest December figure since records began in January 1993, and it's driven first of all by the rise in spending on energy support schemes that's comments lots of governments and also the rise in debt interest payments, of course the Bank of England has been hiking rates. That alone costs 17.3 billion pounds. Now, given that cutting the national debt is one of Rishi sunak's 5 big pledges for this year that he's asked the public to judge him against. It's not a good look, but well, and it dashes the hopes that the debts, the borrowing is on a downward path. So I have to say when it comes to the march budget, you can expect it to embolden Jeremy hunt in keeping a tight grip on the purse strings as we were already expecting him to do. Yeah, just another piece of taser adding to that multi dimensional puzzle that the Chancellor will have to unpack ahead of the budget. In other piece of the puzzle, the state of the UK economy will get an update on PMI numbers for January later this morning. What are we expecting? Yeah, economists, including our own at Bloomberg economics were expecting the PMI to stay at 49. So just below the threshold that separates expansion from contraction, it would show that a technical recession might have been avoided in the fourth quarter of 2022, but a recession is unlikely to be averted because of course, as I say, monetary policy is lagging, rates now are in restrictive territory. And you've also got the labor market cooling. So there is this risk that people lose their jobs. We did see the economy unexpectedly growing in November despite the rise of interest payments, perhaps because of the fiscal support. So maybe we'll get a nice surprise today. The other happy spot in economic news in the UK is Credit Suisse expects that China's reopening and the return of Chinese tourists in the UK could soften the economic blow by driving UK exports, Credit Suisse says it could add 8 basis points to UK growth. So maybe we'll get that positive wind later in the year. Yeah. So that is another Lake to the China reopening story and the countries that will benefit. We talk a lot about others in Asia Pacific but also the tourism vibe. Now let's pull all that together then Lizzie and what does that mean for the Bank of England? Well, of course, the main worry going ahead is how sticky inflation is proving to be an the hawks on the monetary policy committee really pointing to the core inflation figure, but the softer the recession as we'll see in these figures, the more hawkish the NPC can be. Interesting to see in HSBC's note yesterday, their forecasting only a 25 basis point hike in February and economists there, Liz Martin's reckons you'll get two doves for no change, two hawks for a half point and then the four core internals going for a quarter point move. So another three way split and Liz Martin cites this drop in inflation for two straight months and the fact that the housing market has slowed as her reasons for seeing a smaller rise. Yeah, okay, so there's lots of factors being considered there by those members of the NPC as they are looking towards that next meeting, of course, just next week. It will be a bit of bumper days. It's also the day the ECB will be announcing its monetary policy decision, of course, the fad coming up as well. So a busy week for central banking ahead, our UK correspondent Lizzie Bergen, thank you very much for taking us through the latest on that story this morning, those latest public finances figures out from the UK and looking ahead to the composite PMI numbers as well. Okay, let's get a
Bloomberg Radio New York
"william hagers" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And as their regulations diverge, it turns out that back then the governor Andrew Bailey last week told MPs that he wasn't that impressed and he doesn't think these things are going to improve because the EU say they can't change their regulations until 2025, which is when they're giving you mandate, which is also when these passports run out. So increasingly, the UK is now looking at these kind of large amounts of money in Europe and saying, we're not sure this is good for our financial stability. Okay, in the times William Hager's rising a piece there and he's warning watch out Rishi sunak, low tax loons are circling. It's quite something Stephen when a former leader of the Conservative Party is calling his own MPs loons. So William Hague doesn't name this MP, but is talking about a recent meeting Rishi sudak had with his own backbenches where he's saying, you all understand I can't do tax cuts and one in people's reporters saying I do want tax cuts and I'm not an idiot. Well, William Hague is politely saying you are an idiot. And it's a Tory calling for public spending. This is unusual argument. So I think it's worth pointing out in the papers. He's saying that defense does not need a small amount of money if you look at Ukraine. He says we also need green subsidies to combat what's happening in the U.S. and ultimately central banks might be underestimating inflation. We don't know and the qua Tang mini budget was a surefire way of saying actually trying to have a tax reduction during a period of high interest rates and inflation doesn't work. So he sums us up by saying that Pete voters want economic competence from the Tories not just tax cuts. There is more to politics than just offering a sort of a short term incentive. Yeah, I mean, on the other hand, one can have a bit of sympathy for the MP, the MP understands that with the cost of living crisis, his own constituents are watching their tax bills rise. And that's a stress point, isn't it? And that's the debate that they're going to have over the next year and the challenge we've seen our phase are trying to hold these two wings together. Yeah, absolutely. You're stuck on the times though this morning change because there's another story. But this time about the ONS, The Office for national statistics in there. What's going on? I couldn't get away from this one. So long story short, obviously I missed a lot of data and most of it is very accurate, but in productivity, the idea that the amount of output per hour you work with a focus on productivity because after the working from home revolution now for the pandemic, we're really quite interested in how the UK performed. And to put it bluntly, the ONS had to release a correction to their figures because they had added up two years worth of growth into one. So for last year's productivity, we went from being the best barge of pan in the G 7 to the worst bar France. It's a complete reversal and it is highlighting that Britain's conductivity chronic productivity problem, which we've talked about private and public sector investment, it's not a question of, oh, what have we learned from the pandemic? And more, oh, that's not so great. So the technology is not helped, particularly, yeah, very interesting. Okay, James Wilcox, thank you very much for that review of the newspapers, this morning. Let's dig into the latest commentary from the European Central Bank now. Christine Lagarde pointing to more significant interest rate rises as they and her words stay the course to bring inflation back down to the 2% target this of course ahead of next week's ECB meeting markets are expecting the bank to raise rates by another 50 basis points our ECB reporter Janna rando joins us now for a more good morning to you. How clear then have the signals been from the ECB president in this latest speech? I think she couldn't have been any clearer. She said, and it was very specific. That staying the course is the policy mantra for the ECB for the time to come. And that means if there had been any doubts about another half point hike coming up in February, those doubts are now dispelled. There weren't then many I have to say because she was already very specific in December, but we have seen some diverging opinions I would say over the past couple of days. And she put her foot down and said, for now, this is what we're going to do. And that was certainly very forceful. Yeah. It's a very forceful, but the issue is about getting unanimity or at least getting agreement across the ECB is often seen more difficult than for the fed. How does her position compare to other governing council members that we've heard from Jana? I think for February there, all of them are pretty much on message and everybody expects another half point hike. The more interesting debate is going to be march when new forecasts are available. And of course, we have seen quite a few developments since the last round in December. That suggests that the inflation outlook might have actually improved a little bit gas prices have come down inflation itself has slowed quite a bit. And that, of course, takes pressure out of discussions. So there is a bit of hope that the forecast will look a lot better. And with that, with that prospect came quite a diverging view of opinion, we've heard from the likes of Robert holtzman and class can not. Sitting very much on the hawkish side of the governing council. Pushing for several more half point hikes in the first half of the year. And that, of course, contrasts very clearly with comments from Ignacio visco or Janice to naras from Italy and Greece, respectively, that argued for a gradual saying, we need to be more gradual. We need to take into account what we've already done. And they also brought up the idea of maybe now is not the time to hike too much and go into restrictive territory too much. So there is a difference of opinion out there we're not going to get much clarity. I'm afraid in the next couple of weeks because ultimately the ECB says it is data dependent. It will look at the numbers it will look at the forecast and then it will take its decision and marches unfortunately quite a while away. Okay, and of course we have those PMI data out later as well. What are the data points that we should be keeping a very close eye on that would feed into the ECB's thinking? Yeah, so the PMIs are going to be an interesting one to watch. Mainly because for the Eurozone, we are expecting our economists, I should say, are expecting a return to growth in the services sector, and that would be certainly good news. What I like to look at for the PMIs are the forward looking indicators. The order intake export orders that might tell us a little bit about demand in China and how that is going to boost the economy. And then of course, of course, the price and indicators are all going to be interesting. How much are companies adjusting their prices, we've seen a slowdown in producer prices and other indicators in the important prices, of course. So it's going to be interesting to watch whether they're that will feed through and maybe ease pressures a little bit. Beyond the thank you so much for being with us, Bloomberg's ECB reporter Jana ran down 9 a.m. is the time we get your error flash PMI figures out today. Let's take a look now at global news with Bloomberg's James Walcott good morning. Good morning. President Erdoğan of turkey says he won't support Sweden's bid to join NATO, an agreement reached at the NATO summit in Madrid in June and had Sweden and villains membership bids to move ahead, but turkey refused to ratify the bids and its position has changed little since then. And Bloomberg understands the Biden administration has confronted Beijing on its stance towards Russia. U.S.
The Shawn Harvey Morning Show Podcast
"william hagers" Discussed on The Shawn Harvey Morning Show Podcast
"Exactly you might redirect your focus right. Who jones is here. Hey we're having a party literally the godfather solar tracy. Hey tracy dray shaw is. He hated reagan. More noble love a party. Danielle williams hager. Hey you're much to you. The who is who are both sitting this baby. She is your julius gala. Show if she worked harder here last night. I don't know if they're watching him. She shot out to my amazing daughter. Lucia and my phenomenal son cam. And my sister. My helping for helping me. Last night there official decorates because remember. They were in here for halloween and there were so excited they were planning on this stuff. My son was acting like he was. He was sean or my daughter was me. He was cutting her off about ahead. And then my daughter says don't cut me off my son said What did he say he was like. No i have to. Because you're always talking like mommy. And you sound like sean from over there was supposed to be over there. Let's applaud the they had a great time. Coupla cute who else we have The low is here. Hey girl haiti low. What's up de la. Deborah jackson is in the building. What's up do you ever darlene. Hendricks this here. Hey darlene game.