17 Burst results for "Will"
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"We have carrier today. If carry gates wide enough you can look to price some of your bushels versus those deferred contracts you know march twenty two corn march twenty. Two beings may twenty. Two core may twenty two being out to july of next year. You could carries wide enough. And you're not too far away from from targets that i would consider you could start to price a bushels that you're going to store versus those higher price deferred contracts anything else in the marketplace or the outside markets. That worries you at this. Point or gives you hope Will the outside markets. And and you know that whole situation regarding the fad and low interest rates is absolutely terrifying but that we can have that conversation a different day Some of the stuff regarding china is interesting so china. Their government had a report out. Just yesterday i think. And they reduced their estimate for corn feeding there at one hundred eighty seven million metric tonnes. Usda increase their number to to fourteen today So you've got a bit of a disparity there to say the least. I don't know exactly how that's gonna play outside but It seems like there are some signals here. That chinese demand for feed grains is wavering. A little bit They've recently cancelled some Purchases of avi grants from other countries. China has not made a purchase of new crop. Us corns it's may. They've got a record book but they haven't been bought anything for a long time Haag expansion expansion. That hoggard in china has been reduced. Usda italian crested still going to be really good china saying not so much. Where does it end up. I really don't know but you can't ignore the fact that china hasn't made into corn purchase since since the month of may for this twenty twenty one crop china. The chinese government saying this was because of low price of hogs in china. So that's not a Production issue in terms of we don't have enough hogs. That's a production issue either. We don't have enough demand or we have far too many hogs. Guess which are ready to. Yeah it's that it's the low. Prices are going to discourage expansion. Usda also in the report increased their projection for chinese corn production today. So there's talk that you know they're just going to have a bigger crop this year or a good cropper deacon crap so that that's a big question i think in regards to soybeans china's going to do it normally does they're going to buy a lot of beans from do us a little bit behind where they need to be but in regard to corn. I still have this like this question. My head was twenty. Twenty two twenty twenty one was that a one and done when it comes to chinese corn imports. Or is this something that we see. continue More so like soybeans i. I think that's a still question. Arthur made at least four soybeans speaking to those Many times producers will run those across the scale. Make the make the sale even at the lower. Usda cash grain price down some What eighty cents today Is there a possibility that because of the six month production cycle for soybeans that there will be a weather market that producers could take advantage of maybe november december possibly january. Absolutely yeah Brazil is going to plant a record amount of soybean acreage. That's a guarantee they They increased acreage every single year. But the size of the crop of course and yields are dependent on weather They're gonna they're dry now. September can be a wet month. And there's a lot of time for things to change..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"You know you're gonna have to complain to someone else because that's a pretty darn good income. And so sometimes. I think we we look at what's happened in the past. And and we get disillusioned by that you know and we think you know what we we don't want to sound until we get back closer to the highs. Well you know this five p. one of those years that you don't get back close to highest because we all know the brazilians are going to bring a significant amount of acres towards the market again this year the markets asking for it they're going to reward it Same thing in argentina. And i think that you've got expect really really strong competition worldwide. Really this year you know and so beings they'll be a mom we'll get to the harvest soon enough for both cornyn savings but should producers sell beans across the scale and by that. I'm thinking do. They need to make more sales now rather than later as they pull those beans across the scale so being the guys i work with bag market you know we were discussing this over the last weekend and we close this last week You know pretty close to thirteen dollars and we thought you know. A lot of producers are expecting after being out in their fields and looking at what they've got like. It's going out there with agronomist. Feel like they've got above eight t h beans not everyone but most producers will work with. So we're thinking ourselves you know How's this gonna look to us if we end up dropping dollar dropping more than that Maybe we need to get more aggressive so we actually moved to seventy five percent of expected. Production sold you know and we also talked to our growers that you know what if you end up in a situation where you're hauling across the scale and you still got thirteen dollar beans or twelve seventy five beans We still feel like Selling the rest of them across the scale makes good sense with those types of yields. Now can you re own something like that. Absolutely there's ways you can do so cheaply But in my opinion turning your nose up at thirteen dollars beans at these yields is probably not very smart business. And can you tell me. Just a bit about Basis nearby deferred in the carry in the market for both corn and soybeans. There's still some premiums Crop depending on where you're at we're still seeing some especially on corn and soybean situation on basis is really Calmed down and really flattened out to be more of the new crop bid right now but corn still a little bit of premiums on some some spots around the corner bell is harvest is still a little slow to get started. It's still going to be two to three weeks in most parts of the midwest before harvest really gets Picking up so we are seeing a little bit of premium ethanol margins. You need to be pretty positive in the spot market Continue need to see that offering some support to some faces around the mid west. I think the rivers probably got the most attention this week..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Talk of world demand on the world things as we look. The wheat crop was bad and a lot of places we see. The corn crop. Being sh short and south america argentina's shipping their extra corn to brazil. A lot of things like that were seen. Basis levels tremendously high. Last week we had nearby shipment corn at cargill linden a dollar forty over the september. I mean a dollar forty over now and we've got a crop that looks like this sort of crazy out there especially when we're talking about we were gonna decrease ethanol usage And they're still producing. And i think that we have seen ver- we've had really really good early early buying from the chinese but we haven't seen anything in the corn market for a long time And i think that that's it. We're seeing small small chunks being nipped off on the bean market daily but no big sales in what they're looking for. And i think kurt really hit on it here on the last bit would sing and we see a little drip down. Maybe below. thirteen dollars. Will we see china. Come in and book a few more beans like that that they would need to do a degree you know they and a lot of wheat and a lot of different things that way instead of meal And this might change some of that. We're seeing china very much control. How they're doing you know their speculation. And what's going on on a lot of areas that way but A lot of pessimism. Right now i think the knocked the market came out of number one cova number one afghanistan to afghanistan three the feds for the dollar. And what we're talking about and just plain. The funds were getting tired They hadn't sold and today they were pretty good sellers. They were liquidating some of their positions. But i think that we might just might like kurt says at these lower levels see some cash business start to take place by some of the countries that need to block some stuff in. So that's all about the demand structure in that case. Yeah last psychological and wayne hit on afghanistan. i i mean in the public's i you know wow we got a problem here In people are tired of this politics. Right away i made. The decision was stand bush. Not my fault. Well that's great. You can't point the finger you got come up some solutions right away. How am i gonna fix this. How am i going to help those people stranded in there and we've not heard that yet part of the media his his news people. They need to turn this thing. Around those aircraft carriers going in there take people out they need to take the green beret seals in there and show them getting off going in there and people coming on and getting out there..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"We look back and We sell signals back in and in may as i mentioned that has not turned around yet but komo is over yet either but i think From what i. I look at it and i'm not a fan of all about Buying calls take a look at what it costs you to do that. You know why did you. Why did you see side the farm to drain the swamp so to speak And then i look at it. Well what what prices. What's going to happen to demand if prices go to this six dollars. Six fifty or whatever Who's gonna use it. You know you probably can't put it to us and then you invite more competition somewhere else. I look at saying. If i'm gonna put it into. Ben i'm gonna sell it to somebody i have them. also. A called the right to own that corn Twenty cents higher for fifty cents a bushel or thirty cents soybeans and near the level of their words as if it gets that high. I don't care juries as matter. Mike or anybody. That's a lot of money. And i've got to thinking about next year's crop after that so i i think we are focused. Should be that. We have a tax problem at the end of the year. And all we arrive. Athetic work varies with the individual. But i waited like selling called against my inventory. If i decide to keep it. Let's get a final note. From each of you meigs Global com research dot com out of actress in kansas. I'll start with you today. I think it's been a really nice show with everybody. I think there's been a lot to gain in terms of knowledge here todd and hopefully producer. Rachel think seriously about it. My final comment is that we'd is still our leader because of the world numbers. We noticed that the april high and soft red was seven. seventy three. the may high was seven. Seventy three and a half thursdays close with seven fifty one. Let's see if we can't take those spring highs out if we can that should really help the corn market quite a bit if we can't then that's kind of a wakeup call to me. From a standpoint of maybe the wheat market is flagging something. Jerry gawky of the gawky group out of rockford illinois and travelling in north dakota this week i was wondering interesting that Us agreed with a bazillion crop yesterday. Lowered our exports and who's gonna fill that void and You know brazil can export the grain. So there's there's some reason to believe that Those the things that experts could go higher Maybe we gotta wait a while for that to happen and And that's wild card out there. I i look at an awful. Someone mentioned something about inflation and a friend of mine that used to work at. Usda says Nassan us you're gonna come out with numbers and doug them around To make sure that inflation Guys that buy our stuff and use it. It's only being oil. We had the millers today telling us that knowing telling president vitamin that we had to do something because the cost of bridge that are higher. And and that's gonna affect everybody. And i think they're going to try to tap dash this thing until either we get a better profit pecan managed or Or so many use it and Like china doesn't come in and i buy Migraine like like they're supposed to i guess under contract and most people think they are so There's just a lot of elements thought they're playing and this thing. Is.
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Dot com out of atchison kansas. The united states department of agriculture on thursday released the first crop production report for corn and soybeans for the year in it. It lowered the yield for corn by four point. Nine bushels to the acre to one hundred and seventy four point six and that drop total production to fourteen billion seven hundred and fifty million bushels. Did you expect this to happen this quickly or even overtime i did over time. Todd i felt like after doing the crop tour and looking at the remote-sensing information that the. Usda tends to use during this time period that we had a lower yield coming The looked more like a final yield to me from a standpoint. Because that's what i was using was with clients. A one seventy four point nine final yield With the idea that the beano could keep going down so it. It seemed to me that the break in the yield numbers Usda is not going to monkey around at all and we saw this last month as well that they're going to get the supply demand numbers out there as fast as they possibly. Can i think part of this is because the inflationary pressures in the market Washington's very well aware of the the higher prices that consume for paying in the higher prices the businesses paying. So i i'm guessing that's why they're doing this either that or they've had some shifting in their nerves statistics or how they do things Versus what they did in prior years. How did you arrive at your calculation. To begin with that was lower than most. I think the biggest thing was the help of the clients in the western corn bill. I i don't want to tell you everything. Because i a lot of it is proprietary. But i can't tell you. I agree sampled a lot of corn in nebraska and kansas. About three days before i came up with a final yield and i had clients in iowa and other parts of the upper mid west. Send me pictures of what they were looking at. And it was an amazing. How different the fields look. How different the ears look. I should say with the amount of tip. Back that we saw with the hotter drier weather. It it just came at the wrong time and we also had a very big outbreak. I think of japanese beetles and other issues during pollination that really created some problems with the With the with the nick and with the colonels in i'm sure. Usda probably didn't figure that one out yet but they did do some producer survey. So i think they probably did pick up on the tip back so that number you talked to me about last week during the closing market report so we know that that number was there Egg market dot net also had a number. Can you remind us of what that number happened to be matt bennett. Then talk about where you see things going from here. As it's related to the size of the corn crop are official trade guests for the august report. Was one seventy eight eight because we were trying to guess. Usda and quite frankly. I feel like there's an awful lot of really good corn you know In illinois indiana parts of iowa. And of course ohio's got some really good corn as well We did put a spreadsheet together which we utah just to try to highlight the people how hard it actually might be to get trainline yield with. Usda and we were plugging in actually two hundred and fourteen for illinois and one hundred ninety..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"What the in charge might be at the grain elevator and whether this is worth worth the opportunity to get everything covered on a normal kind of Move in downward into the fall harvest season talk if you look at it in that perspective and assume that we're going to get that i think the answer is no but i think if you put yourself in the producers shoes i mean our guys I would say are very optimistic towards what the future might be. But they shouldn't wanna lose sight of the fact that as as chipped when these are some very profitable levels On the farm from parikh or pnl standpoint but when you look at the marketplace right now you've had ample opportunity to make what sales you need to make and hopefully you've been planning for and doing that and when there was a basis in verse in the beans you had the opportunity there and he's had plenty of opportunity flat price to get to a point and you're not happy with where you're at that you look at today's prices but putting either corn or sweet beans in the been unpracticed or protected. This fall is essentially a bet on futures at this point. I mean there's very little curie in the cash market. There's virtually none in the beans a very small amount in cooler. That's not going to pay those charges on storage or dp as you mentioned. But i think the the the decision at that point has to be how favorable you are on the market there are certainly ways to use options to create a downside profile protection will maybe putting an upside cap in place. That's you know. Fifty sixty cents above where we're at and corn maybe a dollar and war and soybeans and not breaking the bank doing something. That's you know a dime or under in terms of premium. So i think you have to frame it up in those terms. I think cash flew right now. Guys are not just sell more than a position where they need to sell more. I think the government put if we want to call it that or the influx of of nontraditional revenue programs a few with e. l. etcetera. That farmers were able to capture the spring and the summer Is sustaining them through this period and and not quite in the same situation that they would have been. Let's say last fall at this time and at that point we had you know to your point. We had a very attractive being. You know number coming on. Certainly not where we're at now. We had corn that showed some carrying so we had a lot of being sold off the combat. I'm not sure that that's gonna be the situation that you're you're but certainly you know. Pick your poison here and you can find something to see if you need the cash. Well other than that. I think i'd i'd use some you know some optionality strategy here to take advantage of my bins in that way. Steve freed well. I think it's almost impossible right now to console to a farmer. Because you know you would just say all right. These corn trades five ninety. You need more and when you look at You know the november beans Fourteen fifty Sell some more..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Maybe <hes> as high as thirteen meinhold hold the beans but it all is going to get down to one thing and one thing over. What's the size of the crop. And i agree wholeheartedly with dan saying we couldn't come up with the right size of the crop. Clear out into january. Last year we had to make one more adjustment. I believe in march may somewhere in there. And i just think they're going to have a hard time getting a handle on this as variable czyz kirk cameron's with bates commodities out of normal illinois. Your final word without we talked about volatile building. If you look the option volatility is still about thirty five thirty six percent. that's fairly high. Typically summer or bull markets gets up to forty five forty seven percent during the winters down around ten or twelve so watch it accordingly but the headline news down. The road is gonna be Location if dakotas or short minnesota short of iowa short the function the market will move the supplies here in the east to the west pacific specifically alad northwest and finally dan's vicar. Its current associates in waco texas. Who drove up to be with us here in champaign county today dan thank you so much for taking the time to come here today to happy to be back in illinois. <hes> is triple digit heat in waco texas. So even those little humid here in july in illinois is much more comfortable. Let's put it that way and I wanna clarify that point that you made. There is a difference between seasonal highs season lows yearly highs and yearly lows counter year highs and lows and What i'm saying is that i think those may highs that we put in Are probably going to hold as seasonal highs now and were searching now were marking time waiting for more information and as merrill said The seasonals pretty well kind of suggests that They're kind of tough to get the market to do anything until the combine start rolling in october And we come in here and october My cycles pru. Well aligned with what maryland is looking at in like i said Then i think were up all the way into next summer So you know. A farmer will have to adjust his marketing pattern. His marketing sales to that <hes> If there's anything that i learned in forty years or watching markets is <hes> Marcus always go higher than what you think are going to going to. And they always go lower than what you think. They are going to And <hes> Also i kind of you. This as a period of time We got a lot of uncertainty some of the outside markets. You know sugar crude oil How that's going to impact over all things. I the biggest thing that i saw that farmers were concerned with when was back home visiting with the people that farm our family ground Is they're scared to death about input costs next year and i said well you know the one thing about high input costs there is a bullish twist to it. It does keep marginal acres from going into production. So you may not see the growth in acres that you normally would see with these kind of prices that we've had so I think you gotta be still friendly. Agriculture and like i said <hes> We're just waiting around to get more information as what the market and west week get that information. Then we'll be able to do something with it and we'll be able to run with that well as a former employee like kurt. We both agree that you taught as well. We both know the differences between seasonal nearly highs. Think you for coming back to that point because you're right you're right and i do appreciate that. Of course we've been talking on this july twenty. Two addition of commodity week with dan's wicker. He's from waco. Texas merrill crowley joined us matsuki illinois and kirk. Kimmel here was here from bates commodities. He's in normal. I'm university of illinois extensions todd.
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Control short-term interest rates But at some point in time The long term interest rates are gonna do what they wanna do and you can keep short term interest rates at one percent and then they can take that money and they can start selling those thirty year bonds and i think back in the eighties. I think those thirty year bonds went down to eighty two. And i think we looked up last night. When we're visiting there up in the sixties so there's a long ways to go on that long term interest rate and i think that long term interest rate is one that you have to really watch because the one that the politicians really can't control Short terms easy with zero percent interest rates on the short term on the fads but when it starts getting long term if the market begins to -ticipant that we're going to have inflation You're gonna see that. Term interest rate begin to draw our uc bonds start dropping long term interest rates. Start rising But that doesn't mean that's going to be a kiss of death to the market right away But it does kind of spell some trouble coming back to the supply and demand figures at hand. A- crop now that seems like it might be more Where usda has it than it has been in the past for awhile The ssd table. However and i've talked about this on air a great deal on commodity week and other places simply asking the question. And i'll ask it again of the three of you. The five seventy used in may the five sixty. They ended up using in july after they dropped. That season's average cash price is a benchmark that many farmers will use for themselves. And it just seems like it's awfully high but it is in being used by. Usda with a record crop size and demand function. That isn't all that different than where we started out at last year. I don't know if i'm the right one to ask that question. I really don't trust the numbers..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Well i think it really depends on where you're located in in the corn belt. Because if i were in north west iowa sure would not be wanting to be cash sold at sixty percent like i would be in indiana I think you've got to be a lot more cautious but I like some options in here. I like long december puts. And and i've been buying the five forty puts and selling six forty calls against him cheap and the price and also selling the for forty put under the market on the beam side of things. I think most people have said well. He's told my beans the last two years off the combine and that probably was not the right thing to do either time. And i'm not gonna do that again. So i think most cash selling is probably locked in at twenty or twenty five percent on the beans and nobody wants to do anything more. So you've gotta look at either buying options which are terribly expensive to buy puts or by selling the board in this Fourteen dollars to fourteen twenty range given what you know about the crop today. Where do you think. The corn crop will land when august comes around for the crop production. Report from usda. Well i think personally that were around one. Seventy five area one. Seventy five and a half. I think you have to consider that huge area from minnesota the dakotas it's got some major problems Illinois taking it out of the equation with Taking a record deal dot the crop. I'm landing china somewhere in. That wants to seventy five area and for soybeans. I think has a soybean. Neil of is probably somewhere under fifty bush in the forty nine area The problem becomes For usda if they drop the yield down into the forty nine sub fifty. They're going to have to adjust demand or that would imply we would have to ration price for that long yield. What do you make of this week's trade so far I think it's Reacting pretty favorably. What we've seen is a market repel off some of those lows Starting to put some weather premium back into the market Certainly you've seen wheat to become a leader and There were the recognition of bam. Each out in the west so overall pretty favorable. I think coming in sunday nine and monday..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"We and that's been something that's held us back. I think in the price action waiting for more yield numbers and and those the yield numbers were while they're fantastic and the software and we've from what i'm hearing the hardware. We sound like it's great. It's great but it's not as great as they thought it would be so. I think this is where again after the report. I'd like to see the wheat. Join up with the corn again and find some support if we take that july corn low out from mid june of six twenty nine and a half That is a cell signal to me one of a key cell signal and especially given all the information we have at this point so i won't hesitate to pull more triggers on buying puts for twenty one. Corn hedges won't do any cash sales. But i'll really put hard The idea of getting some puts in place because we don't know whether we've got another leg of the downside is Mister kimble said we've got a cap. The upside we've also got a gap to the downside in the corner to get to logan and cheyenne in just a moment for that. Five seventy cash and what they think was he will show next week. But i wanna follow up with you on on a couple of historical things with the spring wheat You mentioned twenty twelve. I want to say that the spring wheat the big move in the spring wheat was not that year it was earlier. I don't recall for sure as the case the one where we went. Well into the twenties but There was a move in spring wheat. So i i wanted. I'm trying to put it in historical context from what you think the highs might or should be in spring wheat. Yeah sure no. You're absolutely right. That the scope of the drought and spring wheat is like twenty twelve for corn. And that's what i was really trying to get at. You're absolutely right. I don't know why we're not running Maybe even two dollars higher and spring wheat Versus where we're at right now to answer your question. Right and logan. Kim on the five seventy cash price will usda justice. I think it will still stay fairly elevated in that range What will help. We'll get a better picture again with the holidays with the.
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Yeah i i would agree with that and trains right. It's really quieted down here. Last couple of weeks and of course a limit down move on tuesday has a way of Keeping the phones awful quiet and then pretty quiet week Overall you know across the elevator systems that we work with across the corn bell right. We we've been using kind of twenty to twenty five percent sold for new cross for both corn and soybeans. Probably a little heavier beans. Maybe then corn on a percentage basis but That seems to be about the average as far as what kind of sales so the producer at least based on what we've seen all last couple of years. The producer has been fairly aggressive on pricing. Part of that has been kinda ran out of old cropped to sell started pricing. Some new crop and of course he's pretty good prices now with the insurance guarantee there in february but just You know historically pretty prices in general so in pretty active but it's definitely slowed down Based partly on the fact that Farmer steams to be pretty comfortable right now where they're at and this market kind of dip and has a way of quieting things down but you know if we continue to stay. Maybe range-bound here. I think if we get back closer to that six dollar level in these corn Especially with some of the reins we received from from illinois and and east Most of those crops at least one core inside look pretty good. I think we'll see the farmer a little more engaged again. Todd zillow in your area have you been excessively wet. I think it differs todd. There's certainly some Holes that have gotten ten twelve inches of rain. Not i'm like northern illinois in that kankakee and and west of kankakee area and on south of that area. I'd say we're a lot like that area right now. Based upon the clients. I work with in that area but clients in north eastern missouri or a really suffering. You can't really see it. Based upon the crop conditions because in the corn especially it's covered up however we have a lot of Rolling hilly ground That that really drains well. And i think we're still sitting at an above average crop. I think the biggest issue that. I see This side of the mississippi other than something we're all looking at the planes and the dakotas and iowa and southern minnesota that shyam is talking about is probably that border central North kansas central south nebraska Stay round marysville kansas and just above the border and nebraska. There's a pretty big chunk where an inch inch and a half of rain is pretty much all they've gotten Most of the growing season you know the last sixty seven days. So they're really starting to suffer. Dry-land corns really. Starting to go. And i think that's a that's a hot spot that could drag down probably if it worsens anymore than already does maybe could drag down the state yields and both the nebraska and kansas state yields. Which for me you need everything running on all as to get one. Seventy nine point five at the stage. So logan kimmel tell me a little bit about The trade over the last five to seven trading sessions and how you've viewed That limit down move and an those moves that the corn market in particular has made since tim. it's Today relatively quiet compared to previous sessions this week You know working our way older than six dollar level and then you got the holiday weekend in the big move down Really with today's clothes. Were looking at.
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Don't disagree <Speech_Male> with dale <Speech_Male> said. I <Speech_Male> guess i would like to take <Speech_Male> a different thought <Speech_Male> pattern <Speech_Male> with it. <Speech_Male> Where <Speech_Male> are they going to put their money. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> I mean you talk <Speech_Male> about him. Being <Speech_Male> extended in <Speech_Male> the corn where they were extended <Speech_Male> in the <Speech_Male> crude they were extended <Speech_Male> in the gold. And <Speech_Male> silver would say. Kept saying <Speech_Male> it's gonna go higher and higher <Speech_Male> and that's backed <Speech_Male> off <Speech_Male> The stock market <Speech_Male> is kind of lethargic. <Speech_Male> It's picking up some <Speech_Male> so that <Speech_Male> money's got to go somewhere. <Speech_Male> The investors <Speech_Male> are going to demand <Speech_Male> that it be invested. <Speech_Male> So <Speech_Male> i guess. I'm just not <Speech_Male> sure <SpeakerChange> where we'd <Speech_Music_Male> go at this time <Speech_Male> and jackie <Speech_Male> banks of total <Speech_Music_Male> far marketing <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Male> com. And <Speech_Music_Male> i'll just add onto with <Speech_Music_Male> dale and moore <Speech_Music_Female> talking about. I think <Speech_Music_Female> when you look at <Speech_Female> the money flow is <Speech_Male> always the keytar <Speech_Male> market. There's <Speech_Male> no two ways about it <Speech_Male> and <Speech_Male> After all these <Speech_Male> years we recognize <Speech_Male> you know if if <Speech_Female> the dow is taken a <Speech_Male> tank and it takes a tank <Speech_Female> for a couple of days. We've <Speech_Male> got guys over here in <Speech_Female> the commodity market taking <Speech_Male> money back out to <Speech_Male> make margin calls over <Speech_Female> there and so <Speech_Female> you know <Speech_Male> that's <Speech_Male> if i could give you one <Speech_Male> piece of advice. It's <Speech_Male> try to <Speech_Male> control your emotions <Speech_Male> when <Speech_Male> you look at this marketplace <Speech_Male> if you looked at the <Speech_Male> marketplace yesterday <Speech_Male> morning and you saw it down <Speech_Female> fifteen cents. You're <Speech_Female> probably sick to your stomach. <Speech_Male> And then the <Speech_Female> report came out and it was <Speech_Male> up forty and seventy <Speech_Male> and you were jumping <Speech_Male> up and down for joy <Speech_Male> so <Speech_Male> you have to <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> you saw it down <Speech_Female> fifteen cents. You're <Speech_Female> probably sick to your stomach. <Speech_Male> And then the <Speech_Female> report came out and it was <Speech_Male> up forty and seventy <Speech_Male> and you were jumping <Speech_Male> up and down for joy <Speech_Male> so <Speech_Male> you have to <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> be extremely careful <Speech_Music_Male> and <Speech_Music_Male> know where <Speech_Music_Male> you're at and <Speech_Music_Female> what. <Speech_Female> What price makes <Speech_Male> you money <Speech_Music_Male> and at this stage <Speech_Music_Male> of the game. I think <Speech_Music_Male> you know inputs <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> for next year. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> It has to be has to <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> be a big focus. There's <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> no question <SpeakerChange> about that <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> because everything's higher. <Speech_Male> Commodity we of <Speech_Male> course is the production of <Speech_Male> illinois. public media. <Speech_Male> May listen to the whole <Speech_Male> of the program <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> online. Anytime <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> you'd like w <Speech_Music_Male> i l l a <Speech_Music_Male> g dot. Org <Speech_Music_Male> that's will <Speech_Music_Male> egg and dot <Speech_Music_Male> org are thanks. Go <Speech_Music_Male> to our panelists. This week <Speech_Music_Male> including <Speech_Music_Male> jackie vache smale <Speech_Music_Male> crowley <Speech_Music_Male> and elder holes. <Speech_Music_Male> I'm illinois extensions <Speech_Music_Male> <SpeakerChange> todd <Speech_Music_Male>
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"When you're in one of the hab noch places. The minnesota and the north dakota while why did i know you were gonna ask me. How do you deal with the problem that you've got as marketing emotional to begin with and now you've really got issues you know. Well we've seen we've seen it in the past if you were an aggressive seller and suddenly earn a position where you aren't going to necessarily be able to meet your contracts. It's very difficult journey for any any marketer to do. And so i think what they probably need to do is they should be in on the board and they should have calls in place to help themselves able to buy out of these contracts. Because that's the name. But i want to take a step back just for a second todd. If you notice on the bottom of the acreage numbers. As of the end of this survey there were still nine point. Eight four million to be planted in two point. One five million Cornerstone planted and i sat down. And i looked at how many double-cropped beans we did last year. And that was four point one million acres. And i would bet that that's all right here in that nine point eight four million acres that they haven't planted yet so this weather hasn't been very conducive to wheat harvest. Which is where double-cropped beans goal. And so you know. I definitely think that. We could sale of shifting around acreage weiss. I would agree. But i think you need a price for that extra. Push push to take the risk right now especially in those two areas that you talk about now. Your question was. How do you handle it. Well first and foremost you gotta know where you're at. How how's it price gonna affect you. How's it going to work out even if you're in the drought area. The second thing is i think the people in the east can rely more on some cash sales very simply because they look to have the bushels. Those in the west are dry are going to have to rely either on tap that using futures which could really bad if this keeps going up higher but so they're going to have to shell out for the puts and those aren't cheap but if you find yourself with nothing price in this market drops you're going to be in a world of hurt. I think the one thing you know. I mean in in merrill really hit it right you know. People in the east and people in the west have two different marketing games to to play at this point jack even touched on that deal with more certainty in the east where you've had good moisture you have more certainty on on bushels gonna produce nothing. You have to look at it and go. Hey i can make money at this. I have to. I have to sell something in the west Where you have some uncertainty. I think he is an option thing. But the one thing i think people always need to look at in in terms of options especially in a market like this to us. You know a combination. I i would stay with from k. Sales and using bull call spreads. I would be more inclined to use. Bear put spreads. Because you aren't going to see this market fall out to oblivion low prices Anytime over the course of the next three to four months so you can use some bear. Put spreads there are a lot cheaper than us and puts outright and they give you that protection for a certain price range. And i think that's the way that people need to go about that point. I think i..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"To come from. Because it's the cheapest one we're going to buy freight is that freight continues to be bought. That lane will rise Others will kind of normalize the market over time but it is a very free inefficient market when left alone. And how does the united states today and maybe in september october november december fair as the landed costs around the world compared to other nations well right now. We're probably pretty well. Highest in the world. I mean if you look at it. I mean brazil's Cheaper on corn. They're probably going to be pretty similar on their freight costs over. All i mean comparable yeses the most expensive in the world. Wanna fob basis. Let alone afraid. Basis so Tha destination so as we look at what they call cautioned freight so that would be the to the price to the buyers destination. The us is the most expensive through the crop here. But that's gonna flip when when when it turns it. We're going to see lower premiums at the us gulf when harvest are says we typically do. We're gonna see the brazil crop winding down when the argentine crop winding down. And that's going to put the onus on the us to be the shipper for world one more question before along preview which is from brazil win normally with their export market year sort of wind down for corn. Well last couple years. They've been kind of a pain in our our side here up until november december because they've had these big corn crops long tails and then they'll kind of get in trouble 'cause last few years they've oversold position and now they're saying. Oh no we're gonna have to import corn from argentina to do it. But what the sabrina crop. I would say this she would probably going to be. Cnn album market by for sure. September maybe even by mid august to where they're going to have left. The export is means so that takes care of the export market. I'm trying to lake some fundamentals going forward and then we'll come back and deal with where the price of gordon's beans has gone. You talked a little bit about the ethanol issues as it's related to sound s are a small refinery exemptions wayne and i'm wondering how the biden administration might end up dealing with the stave going forward because they're getting pressure politically from both sides of the aisle. The president made promises to the farm community that he would support Biofuels going forward of course Not very happy of the farm and biofuels community about the at the moment and the push per electric vacation For vehicles in his budget however when he came into office you did reverse a bunch of the sra's that were already in place. What is it that we believe. The biden administration will do and how is ethanol Ferrying at this point as we have brought the another the economy back online. Yeah nothing has been fearing well. Todd i mean demand is picked up machine gasoline demand in the us finally kind of get back above those twenty nineteen prepaid Twenty twenty excuse me pre pandemic levels back to the twenty nineteen levels here in the last three or four weeks and so that the demand for ethanol and the blending capability for that physical product is is there. I think is going to stay there as we continue to recover. The issue that we're talking about is really all about the biofuel certificates in the rinse and rennes got very pricey. Here of late. We had before rents rathenow all above two dollars a gallon..
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"At this point that in part not because soybeans wayne house and had a big move yesterday but part of the other complex. Can you explain to me just a little bit about how it is. That soybeans managed move more than limit. Despite the fact that it wasn't a limit move on the previous day. Well i guess that the merck decided that if being oil moved to limit the day before the fate expand beans to limit moves that the expanded limits the next day. actually it wasn't that well publicized. It was one little line that didn't say we increased it and a lot of the people didn't realize until after pop through more than a dollar lower than even was going on and then they went back and hunted for it and i found it on a little email. Come through at six forty five this morning. So the store complexes connected together completely now yes onto the you know to follow on a way and the. He's made a number of of changes here strategically this year. They started with the position limits. Were those were expanded and not by a little bit by tone of sixty to eighty percent in most cases then they've expanded the daily price limits and now they've tied these together so is wayne indicated right now when we have anything in this world complex whether it's the beans the meal or the oil that makes it limit move the following day The entire complex is on these expanded limits and he says as wayne indicated wasn't well you know advertise fact. I think a lot of people were caught a little bit off guard from it but we are testing out these new limits in these new price limits into volatility ranges. so it's I guess it was a good test. I don't know. I mean We we're gonna see more of this. I think as we go along but it's certainly something that we have to be prepared for four from a marketing. A a producer. You know risk management standpoint going forward. Dave captured of courses with strategic far marketing and been coons is here. He's with the mcdonald hells farmer and with mcdonald's pels.
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Kind of think this stacks might be a little bit tighter than than what we think I haven't really gotten into the numbers. Just kinda talk and elevator managers and producers and seeing where they're at you know we could see some surprises with that as well but you know it's it's hard to stay out to the twenty two and look at five twenty five thirty corn and and not want to do something about it the same thirteen dollars being so But at the same time. I think we need to be careful with bittermann. I'm saying this with a very very humble attitude because you know so. Many things can change but We're we're fifty percent sold on corn. And but you know since last september we've made sure that we've advised our customers to buy at least as many calls is they are selling bushels. But we're lacking in our profit margin right now on the farm. I'm looking at his twelve hundred seventeen dollars a lot in and that's locked in revenue inputs already. the ground we've got options already. Bought or upside is protected. And if this market. Let's say goes up to seven fifty. We're going to be making about fifteen hundred dollars acre so we can't lose money if it goes down as it goes up. We make money. I mean that. That's that's a really great way to go to sleep at night. So you know. We're not comfortable going over fifty percent of production because we've had a lot of variability in in Delivered against contracts. We want to avoid. But we're comfortable with that. And and i think if you're not taking advantage of these prices you could be passing up profit opportunity but at the same time you really need to talk to you. Know one of these guys or your advisors and and make sure you have something built in to protect that upside and then you can't go wrong now as far as next year because you were talking about you know the long term strategy if we get into a wild weather market and this thing does.
WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"will" Discussed on WILL 580 Ag Reports: Commodity Week
"Anything else that we haven't discussed that you want to bring up as well you know. I agree with what the deal san. That's kind of what it was getting at both with corn and beans as far as Getting some things priced up to about thirty percent And then to reiterate what allen said about you know president basis are important when you're looking for a high in the marketplace can weather push us back up to uh sure sure can What are you looking at their normally. They're pretty low. They're probably more like twenty or thirty. Maybe thirty five percent odds. Now that the weather will push you to do highs We just don't know but you know if you're looking at that being the truth and you don't have a lot working for you. Because on the flip side you're looking at something like seventy percent chances go lower and personally. I'd rather bet those odds and try to bet the twenty thirty but it's always a concern with the producer of having the grain to provide to the marketplace. And in the back of my mind. I keep thinking about Two thousand twelve when people had to buy contracts back some of them were being charged. Difference plus dollar if this thing is as tied is it is now and continues to tighten because of weather with your cash marketing and maybe just up and swallow.