18 Burst results for "Warren Sharp"
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Straight trading backwards from 12 to 32. For what they got. And for what that point of the draft was, because look, you could say whatever you want about drafts, but they always have tears. And there had clearly hit a point in that draft, was there was the one awesome receiver left, even though he was coming off the ACL injury. And then you had two more really, really highly regarded defensive players, and they were going to go in some order, 12, 13, 14. And I just don't understand why you would trade out of that, especially when all of these teams wanted receivers and what you saw a la Vega, you know, what just with the saints paid just to get him, I didn't get that at all. I still don't understand it. Yeah, that was one that was certainly a little bit perplexing, especially trading with a team in your own division in the Detroit Lions to make that move. I like who the Lions went up to God. I like their strategy in general. Now, that's not to say, I don't dislike who the Vikings ultimately selected and they thought that there was some value there in making that move. Louis scene is great. I just think you have to get if you're going down 20 spots, I have to get a first round pick back. That's the history of the draft. That's too many spots. You're going from top 12, we're about to drop off, I need a first. That's the price to do that. And they just didn't get it. Well, there are certain GMs, and I'm not saying the lines team has been there for a while, but there are certain GMs like the Vikings GM. First year guys in the door and some of these guys are not getting the right type of value as they should on some of these trades and GMs like Howie roseman are taking advantage of them and some of the other GMs around the league, taking advantage of some of the more youthful, less experienced GMs that are looking to make moves. And in general, like the common thought processes, you gain value by trading down. Like it is a plus EV move because you're going to get extra picks in doing so and the draft is so difficult to hit on a specific player that having these extra arrows in your quiver will provide more upside, big picture. And that's why generally speaking, you do get more value in doing that. But the Vikings move, I agree, it was one of the more perplexing trade downs based upon what they got in return. Well, especially during the year when the receiver getting the receiver on The Rookie contract was like the new inefficiency because of how crazy the receiver prices got. So even if the lines have to wait, I don't know. To a week 11 for Williams or even next year. It's still worth it. If that guy's a number one receiver, you see that. Exactly. And if you look at the wide receiver run, was basically ended there after crystal lava, like the last guy on the board that was viewed in the same class at the top of the first round is Jameson Williams. After that, it was like Jahan dotson and treylon Burks, who obviously, I believe, the run on wide receivers pulled them up the draft board as well. No question. Nobody thought that John Dodson should be going 16 overall. And yet he was because if you need a wide receiver and all the other guys have already been picked 12, what are you going to do? So that's why those guys got shifted up the board, but that pick at number 12 had so much inherent value at that time. The value increased over that pick as soon as the saints took Chris olave at number 11. Yeah, and that's why I didn't get it. And that, you know, I don't go crazy, but oh my God, I can't believe they took this guy here, but it was just so clear that we're about to go crater. One last thing on the rest edge, you said, since 2015, teams that had a legitimate rest edge, 92 of this is home favorites of three to ten points since 2015, rest edge. 92 and 38. Straight up, 70, almost 71%. And then against the spread at 70, 58 and two. Those are real numbers. Well, those are not only real numbers, Bill. Look at the comparison when you talk about equal rest or rest deficit to see, does this actually matter? I will tell you this. The NFL tries to say that this is a minor thing. This doesn't really matter that much. And so if that's true, we should be able to look back at historical data and that's why they probably don't want to look at the point spread element of it. But the point spread is the equalizer that we need to factor into context. So you had equal was 45% and if there's a deficit, it was 40.8 against the spread. So we went from 54.7 to 45 to 40.8 if there was actually a deficit. Those are real numbers. Those are definitely real numbers. And the reason I'm segregating out home favorites of three to ten points is because we want to look at the team that is viewed as better. The better team in general should have more of an advantage if they have a rest edge. They should be in a better position because think about it like one of the reasons you guys end up doing pretty well, you've got a great coaching staff. You know how to prepare the players if you have a short Thursday game, you know what needs to happen? Whereas an inexperienced coach or a bad coach may not know the right strategy to get this team ready for a short week road game on a Thursday night like Belichick does. And so looking at home favorites of three to ten points generally we're talking about this team is viewed as the Betty market as the superior team and double digit favorites are generally speaking terrible, whether you're gonna look at, rest edge, not rest edge. So you could include them if you want to or you could take them out like I did is really not gonna do a make a difference to the general comparison which is these teams that are viewed as the better team by the Las Vegas betting market when they play at home. If they have a rest edge, they're covering the spread almost 55% of the time. If they have equal rest, it's down to 45% of the time. That's basically a ten percentage point differential. And then if they have a deficit, even though their viewed is the better team, they're down to 40.8% ATS. As you said, real numbers. These are things that are different speakers. Different major digital especially with a tease too. If you're getting, if I know I get 55% to cover this straight up, then I know you hate teases, but you're never going to make me a house quit. If I get that on a teaser number, that maybe that's up to like 75%, something like that. Just to win the game. Easily. And I think the difficult part for somebody listening to the show right now is, okay, so you're telling me these numbers, but how do I know you told me the big picture rest advantage? How do I know on a per game basis during the season who's got the rest edge? Because most of you already know. Most people aren't sitting at home like running these calculations. What I will tell you is I am planning on this year in the book. The 500 page book for every single team chapter on the very first page of that team's chapter. I'm going to tell you every single week if this team has a rest advantage or a rest disadvantage in that game. And that.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
Fresh update on "warren sharp" discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Whereas the Niners have to think about a whole bunch of stuff. You don't want to be, they have at least a third seed pretty much locked up, but it's not 100% locked up yet. But also to send a message to this Eagles team after they lost in the playoffs to them last year, this is a revenge game. There was a lot of shit talked on both sides. It just feels like a more important game for the 49ers, but I don't know, is that like a bullshit sports media narrative or are you buying it? You know what, in week 18, when I do my picks every year, I kind of fade that narrative when you always have the team that needs the win for the playoffs, like I think it was the Packers last year against the Lions, I always take the opposite side and it seems to always work out. I mean, I'm with you, it makes sense, but like last week, Buffalo needed that game. I mean, if the Bills win that game, we're probably talking this week about, hey, don't count them out, they still have a chance. And the Eagles, that was like a meaningless out of conference game and they still won. So it can change quickly, like these next two weeks, like if they lose this game to the Niners, now all of a sudden next week against Dallas, like you're talking about, you could be the one seed or you could be the five seed if you lose the division. So, and then everyone saw they were frauds, they won all those close games, but now they lost two in a row. So I hear you, I think you're right, the Niners have had this one circled on their calendar, like their players have just saying it. Yeah, this is a game of the year. It's crazy, yeah, I've never seen anything like it. So I do see it in that respect, but I don't know, that tends to burn me, I feel like when I ride that narrative too long. Yeah, you think Eagles 10 and one, not as Gantling catches the pass, that's nine and two. Jake Elliott has to hit a 59 yarder in shitty weather. Now he did, and that's part of what makes the Eagles such a great team is he's, I would say he might even be the number one kicker right now, but he still had to make it that I didn't think that was going in, that seemed like a lot to ask. And then all of a sudden you're eight and three and the line makes more sense. I had, we had John Ewing look it up and it's only been the third time this century that a team that was 10 and one or better at home was an underdog. And the teams went one and two against the spread. So it's like, there gotta be something to it. Big picture Eagles question, where's Hertz, where's he levitating these days in the Philly athlete kind of stratosphere? Is he like above Embiid? I mean, Bryce Harper's number one because he's the mayor of Philly, I assume. But is Hertz like in the top three, where is he? What's the word on Hertz? Yeah, I mean, Hertz might be number one with the way the Philly season kinda, Hertz and Harper were the two guys who were, last year when the Sixers flamed out, it was like Hertz and Harper are the guys you can, like they show up in the big spots. They had vaulted, they vaulted Embiid. Now the Sixers have had a nice, surprising season here so far, but no one's gonna put Embiid over them until they do something in the playoffs. You can't go five for 18 in game seven and have year after year of disappointment. So I think Hertz is one now, honestly. The thing is, he's so young. What is he, 24, 25? Like if you zoom out and you're like, what could this career actually look like in terms of all time Philadelphia athletes? And it's still early, you know, we know there's injuries and stuff happen, but like that ceiling is there for him. And he just sets the tone. Nick Sirianni after these games, he's yelling at Chiefs fans and going crazy. And like Sirianni has become this hated coach by every other fit. But like the team takes on Hertz's personality. You know, they're just like, all right, go to work. He's steady, he'll figure out a way. At the end, there was this clip last week of Brandon Graham, the defensive end on like one of the final possessions, he's mic'd up. And like, as the ball's being snapped, he's like, you don't know Jalen Hertz, like I know Jalen Hertz. He's yelling this to the offensive tackle on the other side. And so I think he's number one right now. And it, you know, him, Harper, and then if the Sixers do something in the playoffs. And you know, Maxie is like so loved. His approval rating might be the highest of any of them just cause he's like lovable and the expectations aren't quite as high, you know, obviously as those other guys. I like the approval rating thing. Yeah, everyone loves Maxie. He just seems like the most beloved guy on and off the court. The thing that's been interesting to watch with Hertz is his demeanor is exactly the same at all points of the game, no matter what just happened. And then sometimes it's maddening, like in that Jets game, where it turns out he was hurt. Of course they didn't tell us, but when he was bad in that game, but there was like, sometimes you feel like, dude, where's the urgency, man? You haven't had a first down or an hour. Like what are you guys doing? And then all of a sudden you can kind of see him get into these grooves. It's weird to call him streaky because he's not streaky. He's actually pretty consistent. But at the same time, I do feel like there's a streakiness to the Eagles offense that I kind of like, cause you can feel it when it's happening. You're like, oh, oh, here they go. And they'll just do it. They'll have three straight touchdown drives in a row, but they'll look like shit for an hour and a half. Yeah, it is so what it's like, once they get that first one, they feel unstoppable. You're just like, all right, they're going to score. But then they have these stretches specifically in the first half. I mean, that's been the big difference this year to last year. If you look at a lot of the numbers, they averaged, I think, 28 points per game with Hertz last year, and this year it's 27. So you're like, it's not really that different, but the way they get there has been very different. Last year, they would jump all over teams in the first half. Hertz would be on the bench in the last six minutes, or they're just running the ball in the last six minutes. And this year, it's like, no, no, first half, they can't do anything. At some point in the second half, they figure it out. And then they come back and they win these games. But yeah, sometimes the camera goes to him. And again, on these text threads, people are like, look at Hertz, you know, why isn't he? I'm like, if you watch this guy- He just looks the same every time. Like, he literally hit a 59-yard game-winning field goal, and he's shaking his head, because he's mad about how the last possession went. So it's kind of like all the sports cliches that we get tired of. He's like the guy they kind of apply to, you know, the next play and stay even, like all that thing that athletes spew. And we're like, all right, give us a break. He actually like abides by all those. So yeah, it's kind of tough to wrap your head around. Warren Sharp was telling me this week that it's that irony of that eagle stat of last year and all the numbers versus this year, that it's pretty similar, because it's actually deceiving. Last year's offense was way better, because they were just doing it in three quarters, and then they would just be up by 20. And if you just actually just look at the first three quarters of last year versus this year, it's no contest, then this year's much harder. At the same time, it just feels like A.J. Brown went up a level from last year. And sometimes they forget about him, or I don't know, he's getting double-teamed. But he is at the point for me now where I always feel like, hey, man, it's third and 16, just get it to A.J. He's gonna make a play, you know? And there's only three guys in the league like that. He's better than anyone ever could have expected when they got him, right? I mean, he's a level higher than they, in your wildest dreams you could have imagined, right? Yeah, I think so. I mean, I was going through like an all-pro team earlier today, just saying, where do I have everyone ranked? And he was definitely one, you know, it was him, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb were my three wide receivers. He's just such a problem solver. Like you said, you can go through a rut and then there'll be these plays where he's literally double-teamed. And on the chalkboard on like a Wednesday, if they're going through that play with Hertz, it's like, no, no, don't go to him. Here's a route underneath. And Hertz, let's just be like, I'm gonna throw that. That guy's really good. And he just makes a contested catch in between two players. So he solves that problem. You can just throw him a slant on third down, a screen, whatever. And he can solve those problems. So yeah, him and Devante Smith. And like you said, they double AJ Brown and now Devante Smith. Like if, think of Devante Smith were on like the Chiefs this year. I mean, he would probably be an all-pro. He would have like 1,400 yards on the Chiefs. So I think they have to keep figuring out that dynamic, making sure both guys are happy. But yeah, they just solve everything for the Eagles passing game. Smith does seem like twice a game, he's just wide open by five yards. And you don't know, he's just one of those guys. There's only like six, seven receivers who just seem like they're just wide open. And you're like, what happened? Did somebody like fuck this up? And say, no, he just completely dusted somebody and he's wide open in the middle of the field or whatever. But yeah, I do wonder what he would be like on a different team. You know what he is? He's like, you know, it's like the comedian's comedian. He is the wide receiver's wide receiver. Like wide receivers are just like, oh my, this is teaching tape. The way he ran this route and read the leverage and the separation and the, like AJ Brown is just a physical specimen where you're like, oh my God, this guy's a beast. Devante Smith is the guy who's just like a technician there. And so yeah, his body control, his instincts are incredible. Well, I'm leaning toward the Niners minus two and a half because of all the stats I'm looking at and the fact that I think you've overachieved a little bit and 11 and one coming off that overtime game and the KC Monday night, the schedule, the gauntlet, the whole thing, whereas the Niners, this is just a nice spot for them. They can go in, they have it circled. They've been thinking about the game all year. And it's just, I just feel like it's probably the right line and I can't believe it. I can't believe a 10 and one team at home in back-to-back home games would be getting points. It seems like a miracle. And at the same time, I actually think the healthy Niners are the best team in the league. And the only time that they haven't been is when Trent Williams was out and Deebo was out and they were missing like some of their major dudes, but they have everybody again, other than the Hifanga. And I just think they're the best team. And this is, we're doing playoff game rules with this game. And I have the 49ers slightly over the Eagles. Do you think that's fair? Yeah, I mean, I think they're, yeah, I would say they're neck and neck. Like I think it's gonna be a field goal game. I picked Eagles 24, 49ers 23. But you had to. When I'm sick of picking, like I picked the, I'm like, oh, the Bills are covering, and I keep, I'm like, why don't you just go with, again, they're 24 and two with Hertz as a starter. I think 14 and one at home. Like just make it easy. If they lose, they lose. But yeah, I don't want the Philly special audience to be coming after me for picking the Niners. And then I'm wrong. We have one other way to go though. We could just take Niners first half minus one and a half. Yeah, that's, you know what? That's not a bad, and by the way, if you're looking at like, if you're really digging deep, the matchup for the Niners in terms of props to me is George Kittle. I mean, his over under for receiving yards is 47 and a half in this game. The Eagles are 32nd in DVOA against tight ends, and they're down. They're two starting linebackers. Like, I don't know, listen, I don't want to say it's like a lock. It's never a lock. I get these wrong all the time. But when I saw that, yeah, he could get hurt. But that is the guy who I feel like is gonna have a monster game if the Niners win. All right, we're gonna take a break.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"That's where that Hopkins. And the O and three coming out of the gate and usually that's a team that starts pretty fast. The Cardinals. And they die in the second half. This year is going to be different. Right. With cliff Kingsbury, he blows this team up like a balloon and then lets it go. And it runs out of air like halfway through the season. And then they're generally speaking terrible. The reason is because he doesn't modify what he's doing. His tactics enough throughout the course of the season. So teams, he's shocked him at the beginning of the year as really good record whether he was in college or the pros to start the year, but then falls off. Well, now he doesn't have Hopkins at the beginning of the season. They do play a difficult schedule, but if you look at this team from week 9 onwards, they literally play the number one most difficult schedule of any team in the NFL over the second half of the season. So you factor that with how they have a game. They do have the Mexico game and you factor that with what he does historically over that last half of the season. I mean, for them to exceed their 8 and a half wins, which is lower than what they've done in the past. For very justified. But they're going to have to win a ton of these games at the beginning of the season because they're going to struggle down the stretch. And you have the Kyler Murray the way he's finished the last two seasons and whether he can hold up for a 5 month year. And the really weird Hollywood Brown trade, we're just standing on that trade, by the way. Hundred and Hollywood Brown for number 23. It just seems steep, but I guess everybody's saying, there's such a run on receivers that felt like they had to get somebody, but I just didn't like it. Yeah, it made a lot more sense once it was announced that Deandre Hopkins was getting suspended because the context at the time we didn't know Hopkins was getting suspended and we said this is ridiculous. It definitely made more sense once that happened. And I still didn't love it, but I could justify why they did it. You love some of the draft teams this year. You enjoyed the jets draft, which I thought was a possible sign of the apocalypse. You enjoying a jet strap on social media. I didn't know what was happening. I kept waiting for the aliens to land, but they did a good job. They did a great job. I was looking at the draft in a little bit of a different context this year, which was, of course, I'm looking at draft value and who you're getting and whether you add more draft capital over the course of the draft or lose it, are you building towards the future? But the other thing that sometimes is useful and there's obviously going to be misses on any way you try to evaluate players, but you look at the wisdom of crowds approach, which is a lot of independent talent evaluators are now in the marketplace sharing their thoughts and opinions on who you should go what position where the top 50 guys top 100 guys rank all these different guys. There's a lot of people that are involved in that now with better data and more information than there's ever been in the past. And so you can compare the average ranking or slotting of these players that are expected to go in the draft with what an individual GM decides to do. So a certain guy might be mocked to go 50th overall. He might be the 50th best player in the draft and a GM who's sitting at pick number 17 decides to go ahead and take that player. Well, is that a reach or not? Well, based on the wisdom of crowds approach that is a reach because he was supposed to go much later in the draft. And then there are certain guys that fall and become values based upon the wisdom of crowds approaching. Generally speaking, I went back and looked at it, you know, two, three years down the road because that's what everybody cares. You can say whatever you want today, everybody can be an expert today because nobody knows what's actually going to happen. But two, three years from now, you're going to figure out which players that were reaches were busts and which players that felt late and we thought might be a steal actually worse deals. And this wisdom of crowds approach does have a pretty good track record of being more than average accurate on picking some of these guys. But I just want to say, was this your way to make me feel bad about coal strange? When I was just over it? In all fairness, you did bring this up. So you asked about this valuation approach. No, I did not mean to make you feel bad. And look, he could be a reach now, but ends up panning out down the road. And so that's what the whole goal is. It's about evaluating these kids and seeing what they could project to in the NFL and look, all of us in the media. I don't think we wish ill on any of these guys. We have our criticisms based on our evaluations in our process and our certain methodologies, but we are secretly rooting for everybody to be successful. That will make the league better. Nobody wants certain teams to whiff on picks and then them to struggle and be terrible. We'll talk about them whether they're good or they're bad, but it'll be interesting. He pans out. I've learned not to get too upset when they would ever happens with the Pats, especially the strange pick when Belichick said after we were pretty confident somebody was going to be taking him soon after. We want to get him. I think if you like the guy, you're going to take them. The only thing we can say with certainty that made no sense. Was the Viking.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Bob Kraft? Jerry Jones. I would say Jerry Jones is the most powerful in general. And Jerry Jones, this season. It's the first time since the NFL expanded Thursday Night Football that they're making the cowboys play a short week road game. They've never played one of two teams in the league since 2006. And a number of teams have played over ten, 12 of these games. Dallas has never had to play one. They finally have to play one this year. But you know what the NFL is doing then? They're giving them so many other advantageous spots throughout the rest of their schedule. That hardly seem fair and I'll give you one example. This year, the cowboys will play 6 games versus opponents who have less than a week to prepare for them. No other team plays more than four, besides Dallas. Last year, nobody played more than four. The NFL average is only 2.6 of these types of games per year. And in fact, only twice in the prior 30 years that a team plays 6 games versus opponents who have less than a week to prepare for them. And now you've got the Dallas Cowboys. So the league finally. And this is, I think, in large part because I kept pointing this out to them. What they thought was fair with the NFL thought was fair Bill. And nobody looks at the schedule like this. So I'm identifying some things that I know in an interview they did with Peter king, who he interviewed one of the schedule makers. They said that they weren't looking at some of the things that I was identifying in the past and now they're starting to incorporate it. What they tried to do with Dallas in the past is they said, well, Dallas never plays a road Thursday game. So let's give them a road thirsty game, but what they did for multiple years is they made that road Thursday game, be the week after Thanksgiving. And so Dallas actually had a full week to prepare for a road Thursday game. It was not anywhere close to playing on Sunday and then after play on Thursday with a day of travel mixed into things where you could get more injuries, too. Exactly. And so finally, they did that this year and I think they said, Jerry, we're gonna do this, but we'll help you out in other ways and they gave them these 6 games that we just have never seen a team get. And so I do think that there is that element with the cowboys and I look historically over the last decade, the cowboys are one of the teams that have historically received the best rest help from the NFL over the last decade in general. Well, that's why they've won so many playoff games. Oh wait, they have a one any platform. Even with all the benefits, they're still so out of the teams to have the rest advantage. Looking at FanDuel at the odds. Buffalo is our favorite right now to win the Super Bowl plus 6 50 and Tampa's plus 7 50 in Dallas is 18 to one. They have the 9th best odds Denver 17 to one they have the 8th best odds. So out of the 5 rest advantage teams for them are in the top 9 for Super Bowl ads including the top two. Now, I think buffalo and Tampa were up there anyway, but I just think that's yet another thing to do. Plus Tampa's in a crap conference, it looks like and Brady's coming back and they were bringing a lot of their guys back. So they're looking at least pretty solid. But then you go to the rest disadvantage teams. Which you had the Patriots yet again. It's year two. Two years. Yep. Bob crab. Maybe that's why I had the wrong answer when you asked me the most powerful phone was. The packers, F you heard Rogers, Texans, jets, and saints. It's a weird list. You only have kind of two public teams on there, and then you have two terrible teams and the saints who knows what they're going to be. But anybody just get demolished out of those 5? I think the jets are an interesting one because they're the hot button team that a lot of people are talking about. Obviously they're roster has improved. We know that quarterbacks generally take that big step year two. That's Zach Wilson this season. And they've improved a lot of the people around him. So you would imagine that he could, if he's gonna take a step, it would come this year, but they are a team where if you look at the rest advantage spots, they have one day rest here, one day rest there, and one game with a two day rest advantage. These one day rest differences. Don't matter nearly as much as three or four or 7 day rest disadvantages do. And that's what the Jets have. They are one of three teams this year. This is also a crazy nugget. There are only, there are three teams this year who must play four times against teams on mini buys, which are, they played on a Thursday. They obviously don't play the next Sunday, and they don't play until the Sunday after that. So they get three extra days of rest over a team that goes from Sunday to Sunday. The reason why that's important is because for most teams that have a true buy, a real buy, you get days off, you might plan a quick vacation, especially now that COVID has wound down, like you might be able to do more things now. And you're not expected to be at the facility working. But if you just have this mini buy where it's just, you know, you don't have a full quote unquote week in this calendar off, but you actually have ten days off. You're prepping you're going into the facility more frequently and you are your body is resting, but you're mentally getting prepared for this next opponent that you're going to face. Last year, no team played four opponents off of many buy. There's been just one team to play for opponents off of a mini buy in an NFL season since the NFL expanded Thursday Night Football in 2006. And this year we've got three of them. So to force a team like the jets to play four of those games, that is brutal and another team that must do it and they're not at the bottom of these rankings. They're right around league average in terms of net rest, but is the Washington commanders and the reason I call them out specifically is because therefore teams that they must play off of many buys happen from week ten onward. So they're jam packed late into the season and what we've seen, what I've found when I'm studying these rest advantage spots are rest advantages or let's say disadvantages hurt you more later on in the season when you're tired anyway. So now that they're gonna have to play four of these teams from week ten onward that have ten days to rest and rehab their bodies and prepare for them. That's gonna hurt them more than if those four games were spread out over the course of the season or came near the beginning of the year. That makes sense. Fando has odds who will win ten plus regular season games. The jets are 7 to one. To go ten and 7 or better. Everyone was falling all over themselves, high fiving about their draft. They had a good draft last.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Then which is a fun little stat that I'm sure. And then the other part of it is Dallas tried to crash versus Golden State smaller lineup and it backfired mask that they ended up ended up being a -7 on their crashes because they gave up more points in transition on their crashes than they did versus their retreat. So they're kind of in a really tough spot there. I don't know what the solution is. I'm sure you can always improve your I mean, look, maxi Cleveland gotten filed trouble. That was big. That was a big factor. Obviously, the three point shooting was a big factor. That won't be the same in game two. But I do think that I do think that the style of defense of mavericks play was well in retrospect was more well suited to how Phoenix played, which is more of a stationary, one on one attacking, break guys down, defense versus Golden State, which is very off ball, lots of cuts, lots of misdirection. Memphis defended that very well, historically, all season are not historically, but all season. And so they were kind of suited for it. Dallas, I think, wasn't really ready for it. We'll see how they adjust going into a game too. The best thing if I'm making the case for Dallas rebounding game two is what you said about max to get in fact trouble. Because that's the one variable in gold state, which I think is a really hard place to play. If he's going to be in foul trouble, then the other variables for them to win at that point are make a ton of threes or Luca goes off. But I just think they need him. In Dallas, maybe it's a little different, but what did he have? He had 3000 at halftime or Kenny and a half. And I remember not a good sign, yeah. The only played 8 minutes in the first half, I believe. The other thing I want to say quickly, that's disadvantageous for Dallas, is their premium defenders that they have Bullock block, excuse me. And Dorian Finney Smith both really, really good on ball defenders during Finney Smith, one of the better on ball wing defenders in the league. The knock against him has always been the foot speed, tracking guys, offscreen. So him chasing around curry. That's a challenge. I think they're going to have to really dial in how they switch off the ball. And that's got to be I mean, if you remember the way the rockets defended Golden State back in the day. They were aided by Durant because with the rent, there wasn't nearly as much motion in the game was a lot slower as crazy as that sounds. Now you remove a guy like that and now it's just all space and movement. It's tough man. It's tough watching when it works, it looks beautiful when it doesn't work. We're all mocking Steve Kerr for not running simple high pick and roll on Twitter like I am all the time. But yeah, let's do the whole works. So Dallas, I think, was plus one 80 heading into the series on FanDuel and now I think they're like plus 360 something like that or plus somewhere between three 35 and 360 depending on what you're looking at. But.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"7 versus Golden State. Houston's threes though were very like looking back at that. They were contested threes. It wasn't like, oh, we're just going to, so that's something to always think about is, 'cause I always thought that too, I think when we played the clippers, we were kind of thinking, well, if they beat us from three, we're not really going to win. Yeah. And so we just kind of packed it and let them try to guard the corners and let them shoot above the breakthroughs and they shot very well in that game. But we'll see how it plays out. I think Milwaukee just ran out of gas to be perfectly honest. The way these series go, both of these Conference Finals that there's a two days off, I believe, in between games two and three in the east. But every other, but every other game for both series is a day of rest than a game the next day, including the travel days on games four, 5, 6 and 7 or 5, 6 and 7. And I just think that's really unfortunate the league does that because these are your teams preparing for the finals and really are going to play with just one day off and travel every day in between games. I think they should take a break between round two and round three. Round two ends on the Sunday. And I wouldn't even start the next one until the Thursday Friday. Or Wednesday. Wednesday, Thursday at worst. You could do that. The level of play would be a lot better. I think it's very important also to have a day of rest between certainly game 6 and game 7 if there's a game set and not just one day and then you're traveling but travel day and then another day because you've noticed a lot of these game 7s have been really grimy and we'll look at that Sunday get the Celtics and bugs play it on Friday night and then it was three 30 Sunday. The game 7. It was like 37 hours later or whatever and you're not getting any time to prepare to make adjustments like these guys are doing their game planning on the plane. It's really interesting to think about. But yeah, I would say that would be something I'd recommend. Well, it's like people that assumed they can't afford great insurance. They discover State Farm has surprisingly great rates. Like a good neighbor State Farm is there, get a quote today. All right, you're Miami, you're going back to Boston. You're playing Saturday night and Monday night, which is just a bizarre combo. In the old days, it used to be the Friday and then the Sunday afternoon. The crowd's going to be rocking on game three. There's going to be, I'm sure the extender will be showing up for game four of the Celtics ticket to one lead. We haven't seen the extender. The extenders in a cave somewhere doing pull ups and push ups, get ready. Scott foster. So I assume there would be one game where Jimmy's gonna get calls. I think Jimmy's hard to officiate too because he is a little like a minus where it's always him bouncing off dudes and bumping off dudes and you just kind of have to decide how much how much is going to happen. Do you see Miami just going for more offense? In those next two games, just trying to outscore them. What do they do? I don't know. It'll be interesting. I don't know, really know what moves they have to be honest. I mean, possibly.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"On wide open threes to just their threes. I was thinking about that a little bit about how game 7s are notoriously lower scoring and also the nerves are higher because players missed threes, but I think if players are comfortable and they know they're just not going to, I think that's one way to feel more comfortable about shooting the threes. If you just know you're not going to be defended at all and you can just and I think part of what helps Boston with him as they were trying to get him as normal threes versus the ones where he was just standing all along. They were trying to get them some threes off of drive and kicks. Yeah, that felt like it was actually in the game. I'm standing here ready to shoot as the pressure just beats down on my forehead. I still thought I thought the bugs had run out of ideas by game 7. They even went, they basically went back to what they did in game one and they tried the bigger lineup and they just left guys wide open from three hope in the Celtics would miss because they wanted to basically pack in the paint and it's not a bad strategy to play the odds on that because we've seen so many teams in the last 5, 6 years. Just completely crater from three during a game and it becomes almost like a virus that starts going around the court, just hitting different guys. I went to that 2018 Celtics Cavs game when you could literally see it in the air. It was like, oh my God, nobody could make it. Nobody wanted to shoot it. You know, and sometimes that happened. And I think that's what they were banking on and it's that Williams turned it the other way. And then the very next night, Houston missed, however many in a row in their game 7 versus Golden State. Houston's threes though were very like looking back at that. They were contested threes. It wasn't like, oh, we're just going to, so that's something to always think about is,.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Get a quote today. All right, Warren sharp is here from the ringer gambling show, sharp football, first time we've seen him in a while. He goes into a cave after the football season ends and crunches numbers for two straight months. Starting to get some action though. We had free agency kind of wrapped up last week, although there's some lingering dudes left. We have some books are starting to put out the over unders. We know the schedule. We kind of have a feel for where the draft picks are going. Let's start with free agency. I know it's not done yet, but it seems like the two winners were Tampa and buffalo, just in terms of Tampa, not only kept their team together. It seems like they added to it a little bit. And then buffalo just had a really good off season. That would be where I'm leaning if I had gone to my head if I had to pick a Super Bowl matchup right now. Is there anybody else that jumped out to or were those two? I liked what the Chargers did. I think one thing that people have to realize though with free agency spending or just the approach to free agency is the teams that just open their pocketbooks and spend in free agency and bring in a lot of big stars. Typically that ends up backfiring. They may get a slight boost, you know, for this upcoming season. For some of them, from a record's perspective, the Jags can't be any worse than they were last year. It probably gonna win more games. It's mainly because they have a new coach and Doug Peterson who will do things a lot better than urban was doing last season. But that's not a sustained model for success. These teams end up losing more. So if you're one of the teams that, you know, your team didn't do a whole lot this off season. Don't get too down on that fact. But in terms of some teams that selected some good players or were able to avoid some, I guess, landmines in terms of adding too many bad players. I definitely think that the Chargers are up there. Tampa getting Brady back is definitely beneficial. But look, I'm a little bit concerned still about Tampa. Here's the reason Bill, I love the fact that this team got Brady back and I'm sure you got some takes on Bruce Arians. But the simple fact is they tried to bring everything together and structure all these contracts after their Super Bowl run of 2020 to bring this team back for 2021 and they weren't really looking much beyond that. And I don't think they've lost a lot of players through this process over the last calendar year. And I just think it's going to be difficult for them to replicate the success that they had of that 2020 season. That being said, they play in the NFC, and the NFC is wide open. I think there's teams from the east that could come out and make runs and they're not even going to be great teams this year. So the fact that they get to play in the NFC is definitely beneficial. In terms of picking a winner and or like a Super Bowl matchup out of the AFC, there's just so many good teams right now. I don't think that there's any value actually if you're picking one of these like top 5 teams to come out of the AFC. I don't think you should be betting right now. I just think it's too difficult to forecast who's going to win the AFC who's going to go to the Super Bowl from the AFC, I would rather wait to see what the actual schedule, the release of the particular dates and weeks that these teams are playing to try to figure out when I might time a bet like all the charters have a brutal first three weeks. Maybe they'll drop a couple games. Then I can get them when they're a little bit lower than what they are now. Well, I guess the thing with Tampa, I kind of written them off after last season. It was like, well, they had this two year run. Now Brady's leaving. They kind of stack the deck for 20 and 21. But now Brady's back. The Bruce Arians thing, which, you know, I talked about on the pod two and a half weeks ago when it was trying to, I think we did a good job on this podcast. Kind of nailing the beats of the Brady of the Brady roller coaster. But the Bruce Arians thing was a big part of it. And I think that was affecting his decision, whether he wanted to play football again, whether he wanted to go to San Francisco. The teen did a really nice job of basically blocking him and being like, if you're playing football, you're playing football here, and that's the way it's going to go. And they clearly carved out some sort of, well, if I'm playing a game, maybe can we do something about the coaching? And now we have this miraculously Bruce's decided to move it in the front office. Todd Bowles is in. And this is lined up now. Todd Bowles has the defense Brady has the offense, which is, I think, what Brady wanted. I look at where Tampa is, this just seems like a miracle that the NFC played out the way it has. We have all these quarterbacks leaving. If the rams, who have definitely one more year in them, but they went all in to win last year. You've Green Bay who's just considerably worse. And I don't know, man, Wilson's gone. The niners look like they're just going to roll the dice with Trey Lance. Jimmy G's hurt. They can't even get an asset for him. Kyler Murray, I don't know what's going on with that. It's gotten to the point where you start looking at Minnesota and you're like, I'm Minnesota. Who knows? Cousins for surgeons. But you mentioned the AFC versus the NFC. Have you ever seen it more lopsided from a QB talent standpoint? This has to be the record. I believe it is. I have not seen it. This lopsided, you know the NBA far better than I do, but when I was younger watching the NBA, it was always like the Western Conference Finals was the de facto title. And that's more or less what this sort of feels like, although the great thing about the NFL is the playoffs are single elimination series, basically. And so in the NBA, it's always the better team in the playoffs, almost always the better team that tends to advance. In the NFL, you have upsets from time to time frequently. I mean, look at the 2007 New England Patriots, the Giants and what Eli Manning did there. So that's what I love about what we're going to get out of this Super Bowl. But no, I have not seen it more lopsided in my memory with one conference having so much more talent at the quarterback position. And especially when you layer in the fact that quarterbacks matter more now than they ever have before. It's a passing league now and quarterbacks matter more than they ever have. And now you've got such a lopsided level of talent is going to be fun to see what the records are for AFC versus NFC teams. This season, but was that something, is that something you try to track and try to get advantages on the first half of the season? Absolutely. I mean, we're going to be tracking everything we're looking. I mean, two years ago, we were betting over at a ridiculous rate earlier in the season because we anticipated some of the crowd noise and lack of home field advantage would help the opposing offenses, the road offenses in those stadiums. Last year, we were betting under really heavily because we got some crowd noise back and a variety of other factors. We look at every single thing and this is obviously going to be one of them. One last note on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that just gives me a little bit of pause. Their path is a little bit more difficult. We're going to talk about strength to schedule momentarily. They had the number two easy schedule last year. That drops down to number 12 easiest this year. So it does get a little bit more difficult. Overall, the conference, though, is easier. Their division is easier. I think that's one of the reasons that Tom Brady chose to come back is because he's like, look at what's happening here with the landscape..
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"It up. It ties into the third point really well too, because during these games, it can be easy to take for granted that he is just kind of messing around. He is just kind of toying with Moses Brown and he still gets, I think he had 37 and 13 assists or something in that game. Just kind of playing in his own speed, taking his own pace and that's against the Cavs team that while short handed has a lot to play for, like the math, they've run up against teams that are missing guys, but desperate teams. And Luke is just doing his thing, you know, slinging through pick and rolls, no problem. He can do that. And he can mess with you and still put up huge numbers and still win. And the team is structured in a way now where it really, it really suits him incredibly well in terms of the defensive support he gets, how small they're playing now in the spacing that puts on the floor, just incredibly dangerous stuff. And I love, I love the idea of him as a guy who could pop in the postseason and get to the finals earlier than expected, whether that's this season, whatever season that ends up being, those things always, they just completely blindside you. And this, I have a hard time, you know, we've talked about this. I have a hard time seeing how anyone beats Phoenix, which maybe makes it perfect for that kind of blind sighting surprise whether it's him, whether it's jaw or whoever it is, if anyone's going to make that kind of leap, you have to do it against a Titan like the suns and you have to tear down a team that's that good to get there. Yeah, I want to talk about Phoenix in a second because we were texting about that last night. And I think it's on topic. The thing with the thing with Dallas,.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Got to say in this scenario, I'm definitely the first fan. Do not talk to me until my lineup is set. Like a good neighbor. State Farm is there. Get a quote today. Warren sharp is here you can hear him on the ringer gambling show on Monday Wednesday and Friday on Wednesdays with the terminator Ben solac and they talk in some language that I think I mostly understand, but it's just like the language of people who have surpassed us mortals with football knowledge. Why don't we have a best football team this year, sharp? We've got a number of great ones. Best one, I think there's a variety of factors. I think defenses made some big adjustments to take away what some of the very best offenses were doing in the past. We're talking like the chiefs and the bills. And these offenses knew that heading into the off season, the teams are going to try to figure out how to slow down what they like to do. They're going to play more of this defensive coverage that includes dropping these two safeties back and playing the shell defense and keeping everything in front of them. But I think they've been a little bit slow to counter punch and to figure out what to do from there. It's been a little bit of a shock to their system in both cases. These were two of the very best offenses in the NFL. I mean, the bills, 20 plus first downs. Every single game last season, no other team in NFL history had been able to accomplish that. And the chiefs, of course, two straight super bowls. So defenses are figuring out different strategies to defend these great offenses. And it's now going to be a matter of making the adjustments down the stretch of the season. And that's why I think this year is so fascinating because what we've seen to date is fine. It's been very exciting and interesting for a while there were no big upsets. Now we've seen a few, so at least that adds to the intrigue. This stretch run is going to be absolutely insane. I think there's going to be separation from some of the greatest teams. They're going to make some adjustments. I think it's going to be really exciting throughout the rest of the season and into the postseason. So when you say the great offenses and you would have said going in the year, Casey and buffalo made that conversation. I think Dallas entered the conversation. And then they got shut out by Denver, who then the next week got picked apart by an inferior quarterback with inferior receivers. And I'm looking at it. I bet on Denver last week and it's just like, all right, now we have entered the there's no rhyme or reason from week to week stage of the season, which has now been three weeks long. There are some predictability with the high favorites. I think at one point, what was it like 27 and O with the favorites in that 6 to 9 point range? Then it flipped. And it's flipped and flipped and the underdogs have basically been hitting over 50%. But.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"They've got you covered with a special game day deals throughout the entire NFL season. And I've actually used this. I have stepped in. I can tell you firsthand, you know you have something satisfying to look forward to even if the games don't go how you expected them to. Tonight, I'll be eating Uber eats, the official on demand food delivery partner, the NFL. Uber eats is bringing you game day deals all season. Order now. We're also brought to you by FanDuel sportsbook where we're gonna be running MB underdog parleys of the week on Wednesdays. I think we might even start this week. It's very possible. Go to their app and check out the boost. And if we have one for this week, it would be bulls and magic, which I don't know what they'll boost that too, but it will be significant. So check that out in the fandos sports book app. Also brought to you by the ringer podcast network where we have the prestige TV pod, which is heated up with curb your enthusiasm and Yellowstone and Succession with the final episode of the morning show. My least favorite show that I can't stop watching, that will be at some point this weekend and a whole bunch more the rewatchables Wesley Morris and I had tackled focus the most underrated Will Smith movie, a movie that kind of re energized his career in a lot of ways. And that is relevant because this weekend king Richard is coming out and I saw it's fantastic. I'm going on Shawn fantasy's big picture podcast. Talk about it. But man was that a satisfying movie? He's great and this feels like Will Smith week. So there you go. Coming up on this podcast, Joe has is going to tell us if the wizards are for real. Chris Vernon is going to zag about as well as anyone zagged in a while talking about Daryl morey and Ben Simmons. Warren sharp is going to come on to tell us, do we even have a best NFL team? Or is it just a bunch of half decent to good teams? I want to talk some football stuff with him. And then finally, my buddy goss comes on to try to convince me to watch the rocky four director's cut, which I've refused to do. He's going to give his rear. I put that at the end because there's some spoilers in and if you still haven't seen the racket for directors cut, what an action packed podcast for us though. One last thing, music box, don't forget. Thursday, 8 p.m., the second of our films because Woodstock 99 is already on the HBO Max app that premiered this summer, but we have 5 in a row coming 5 Thursdays and this first one is called jagged it's about Alanis Morissette. It's directed by Alison klayman. We are very proud of this film. Can't wait for you to watch it. So put that on your radar. I know pat's falcons is Thursday night. The good news is we have DVRs now. You can DVR the pat's game and watch the music box or you could watch the past game and either DVR music box or just go go to HBO Max. Either way, you're watching this Atlantis film. I'm just telling you now. You owe it to me. I've been giving you free podcasts since forever. You can't watch 5 documentaries in 5 weeks. Come on..
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Alex smith with forty pins at his leg tariff to have to get rid of the ball one second and i. You can't do worse at the court. The has nothing was unbelievable. How bad he was. And then he's like partying in the strip club without his mask and do look hoskin starts the first four games. Then they go to kyle allen and alex smith week five weeks six seven and nine is kyle and then you mix alex smith in weeks ten through fourteen then you go back to haskins. After smith gets her haskins there for three weeks. Smith is back for week. seventeen week. Eighteen is heineke this offensive coordinator in terms of scott turner. Just had to try to figure out how to optimize the offense whatever he could to all these different guys that were getting thrown out in. I think he did an admiral job given what he was dealing with. I think we're going to see a team. That has a lot. More upside from calling perspective can do a lot more with ryan fitzpatrick quarterback. I think this offense absolutely improves. I think diane brown who may knock it on the field quite as often is going to be an absolute stud there when he does she chance to get on the field but my concern is actually on the defensive side of the football. It's it's not a concern. It's just like water. Could problems rise. Arise from defensively. This team got it. Seven wins against some pretty crappy quarterbacks. I think you probably know this house but they did not. They only beat one team. Had a winning record last year. And that was ben rothlisberger on that weekday night other than that the only teams they beat were bad teams with terrible offenses and backup. Quarterbacks like nate said feld nick mullins and andy dalton twice in carson wentz. Then got benched. And joe borough who got injured during that game so this defense is probably not as good as what we saw last year. I like their talent there. Just it's unlikely. They produce the same type of defensive results. I'd but i do think the offense can carry them. I got a little bit. You heard house has no house sharp. I got washington football team early in this off season. A little bit. I took some on washington s. Four hundred to win the division. So i think that there's certainly upside in them. Winning the division I don't like it at their current number. Not whatsoever. But i think that there was definitely value there and i think that there's a good chance they can emerge Dana jones. i mean. Did you wanna talk about daniel jones at all. They're not anti dana. Can we talk about house. House told me last week and he was completed hundred percent serious that he thought antonio gibson was better than the dania tomlinson and his prime it was an actual acting. He sat through now. Don't you discredit be any further all on my own. I will just say that you do. Love your tony gibson. Though i do love him i also This is the kind of psychological gymnastics yet. Performers washington fan. Dwayne haskins ultimately is the price. We had to pay to get dan. Snyder the fuck away from the football team. He is the dan snyder. We paid a premium like a after twenty fucking years of this jerk off meddling and putting in yes men and all that it finally took a guy who was absolutely unfit for the nfl to be put into a starting position and then go to the strip club after abysmal failure after abysmal failure to get past neither the fox away from the because ron rivera saved the team. He saved the franchise. And that's the only way that we have a chance to get to tonight wins so i'm okay with haskins because that's the price that we had to pay to get to this point right now. The snyder tax the snyder tax exactly right. that's fair. you biters peter this house. How does really like daniels center that much. I i would wager to say that. That is strong. Favourite among most people who are fans of the washington team in this area has done a great job maybe as as the owner that not ideal that at all right. We're going to end it with the shanna gasm. Let me let me set the table. San francisco last year six ten this year. They're over unders ten and a half. That's a pretty dramatic for. I can't remember the over under for team being that much higher than their respective largest in the nfl this year only to the jacksonville jaguars who only right. Yes usually shitty team division there plus one ninety conference plus six fifty super bowl. Fourteen one not to make the plus minus two five I'm.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Out who can start three. Know who can start foreign because sometimes when you start well during a season you get so much momentum and confidence from that in the nfl is so flimsy as it is right. The roster's changed so much that you just got a little momentum and a little confidence it could flip first of all they play the. Nfc's this year which is great for them but their first three weeks at the giants dana jones at the jaguars who you know went from. Oh maybe they could steal the afc south to wow. That team sucks. They can't block and then their home for the jets week. Three and then week four ravens if the ravens you know are are potentially not nearly as good as we thought but i think they could go three no coming out of the gate and sharp by all your research and all your instincts with this stuff. How important. I sound like a sideline reporter. How important is a good early. Start but i really do feel like it is important. If we're trying to figure out these these sleepers if they start three you know. Would that change your thinking here. Well yeah it would it. Would i already like them. And so i've already bet their win. Total over who tom. I think this is a team. I did not bet them to make the playoffs. Whoever because the afc is loaded. And i think there's a chance nine ten wins. They don't make the playoffs but so that way. That's plus one fifty five. If i told you start three you know. Would you bet them to make the playoffs While they're favored in going to be favored in these games. So i don't necessarily think that changes my mindset at that point in time that they'll make the playoffs i we need them to win at least two these games. Three of them is what i'm hoping for. But that's not gonna make me think that they automatically you're gonna make it to the playoffs. Here's two things that you Two points to tag onto what you said. You don't necessarily love their running backs you know what's really weird about what they did. This preseason the last two games they did not play giovanni williams at all the draft. Pick the running back. They got pick number thirty five overall. They apparently absolutely love devante williams. And might be carving out a pretty nice role for him. Him exceeding his rushing yards is a nice profit that i think hold some water. The other thing the other thing that has been jim j. house down the other thing that's interesting is i mentioned you know how teddy is now going to face the number one easiest schedule of pass defenses. You know last year this team and you just mentioned it. Bill which is why i brought it to my mind. They played the number one. Most difficult schedule pass offense as last year this year vic fangio defense plays the number twenty five most difficult schedule of pass offensive mentioned the nfc east. They also get the afc north if we think ben is not what he is ben. You've also got baker. We don't know yet about joe borough and lamar there and then the non division games that they've got they've got the jets. The jags in the lions. We're talking about a ton of teams that drafted inside the top ten. This broncos team is going to be going up against the season. A lot of these teams have new quarterbacks this year some inexperienced quarterbacks this year when you talk about the jets jags and the lions with jared goff there now i just think there there will be opportunities for this defense to really make teddy not have to do too much and teddy you. You mentioned hamlet down the field. I don't know how much of that we're going to see. I think teddy is like more of a ball control efficient quarterback. Hopefully you don't turn the ball over too much. Don't get your offense off schedule. We don't necessarily need these huge big plays. We just need you to get hammers for that. He's good for the shorts. Yes i agree. I agree what happens in week. Eighteen for denver. To if we're again that's exactly the this is the other reason. Why like them is. There is a better than zero. A non zero chance that they will be playing the kansas city chiefs week. Eighteen where kennedy has zero to earn without win. Kansas city is not playing all of their starters. The last game of the season. They're going to go into the postseason. They might want to rest there guys for a couple of weeks if they've already earned that by so you're talking about a couple of team you're talking about that game where you might just be able to walk get a cakewalk. As long as you don't fuck it up a little bit and then look at weeks fourteen. Fifteen and i'm i don't know even sixteen potentially you've got the lions the bengals and For a and the raiders. Those three teams might be vying for the number one overall. Pick or draft position. By the time we're talking about week fourteen in week fifteen etc so I definitely think that there's upside in playing those teams so late in the season where they're focused might be elsewhere. House what would you. What odds would. I have to give you to bet on. Jon gruden when we get to that week. Sixteen raiders broncos game. Being in serious trouble at the raiders. Ooh what say does jon gruden make it to week sixteen. I'll give you twelve to one. would you take it. Oh yeah. I would definitely take that kidding me. You take eight to one. Yes i would definitely take that. Yes really would you take six to one now. We're starting a long shot but not too long shot. Yes exactly right yeah. Yeah pick 'cause. I ten years almost sharp. I think the raiders are going to be bad. They just haven't he's just not good at being. Gm unfortunately or the player picker..
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Sharp. Well you know earlier when we were trying to figure out what qualifies. We said anybody who has a losing record. Last year ca qualifies asleep or this year and throughout. What about the forty niners. Because they are forecast to win ten and a half games. You said they would still qualify. Are you still holding. The forty niners would qualify as a sleeper. Or should i go with somebody else to make a case for them. Well there's two kinds of sleepers right. The forty niners were six and ten last year and there are no hard division and we don't know how much their rookie quarterback's going to play. I think they qualify as asleep. I mean true sleepers. If you told me like i think the lions are going to win. The nfc nores. I don't feel like we have any teen. That's like the quote unquote true sleeper. Unless we're gonna look at denver. And atlanta i was ending to that qualify for like realistically teams that could jump and compete in a real way and potentially go tendons tannin seven eleven six a couple quick nuggets on denver. And then i'll breakdown the forty niners but denver absolutely was my number two. If you said. I can't choose the forty niners but teddy bridgewater. Last year was in carolina. They played the number one. Most difficult schedule of opposing. Pass defenses this year. He's a starter for the denver broncos. They play the number one easiest schedule of opposing pass. Defense is based on my projections from number one. Most difficult to number one easiest. The only thing that gives me consternation about the denver broncos is fucking pat shurmur who i think is adult of an offensive coordinator. I think he calls far. Too many runs on first down. That's why the average eight point two yards to go on second down the worst in the nfl. No other team was worse than seven point. Nine denver had the number three highest run rate on these second and long situations behind only the baltimore ravens and the new england patriots. Two teams that had running quarterbacks and tried to limit the amount of passing that their quarterbacks redoing the broncos did not have a running quarterback they did not have a good run game they average the longest yards to go on third down because second downplays were so terrible. This offense coordinator is a disaster. I didn't like him in new york. I don't like him in denver. I also have concerns about their head coach vic fangio in terms of being too conservative. But if you're telling me what do i think about the broncos upside. They've got an incredibly good defense. They've got a very good. Looks like the rookie cornerback. Looks like a stud by all accounts. Every bad guy fucking capital as stood and the thing is like. I know that some people were like well. If you were going to go and start teddy bridgewater widens. You just draft justin fields and i hear you on that but i also know this that denver is basically playing right now to keep vic. Fangio's job and goal is to get aaron rodgers next season. So what good is having justin fields in the draft this year when you draft the number one corner get aaron rodgers away from tom. Brady over to the afc. I know patrick mahomes. They're not anything easier longer difficulty. But i think daddy's in upside the denver's going to look after this year but if denver win this year vic is gone doesn't matter just love certain and just felt like. Wow we we have a chance to get like a jalen ramsey type. Cornerback in the spot. And we'll worry about aaron rodgers year. Now we hire. They knew that people like bridgewater. Whoever were going to be available as stopgaps stabs don't like drew lock. And then that. Set that akaba with bathhouse. I also don't like drew lock so that was there. I wondered sharpie as you were going through. Some of those numbers how much you would attribute their inefficiency and their disinclination to throw the ball on first down to drew lock like they. They know they made a mistake with locked they were disinclined to compound that mistake by putting the ball in his hands and entrusting him That's just you know. I get that i get that perspective but the reality is lock is gonna look worse. When he's on third and long then he would be on first and ten from a passing perspective. Defenses are pinning their ears back on third down. That is why. I don't care who. The quarterback is pass the ball on first down not third and long. And if you run the ball and run. Offense sucks which there's did last year. You're only setting yourself up and delaying the inevitable. We've seen teams really improve their offense of efficiency with the same exact quarterback by shifting to a heavier pass rate on early downs as exactly what denver needed to do. This is a flaw with shurmur. It's it's it's a. It's a feature not a bug. This is what this guy does. And i just hope that teddy's going to be able to maybe showcase himself a little bit better and they will ease away from that a little bit. Perhaps the inefficiency brought last year will make them change their mind. I liked judy. Judea have asterisk all over. The place says like making a making a leap guy. K j hamblur. Who i thought was good near the end of the season He's he's kind of one of those like borderline electric. Those receivers those guys as little shifty guys that i always wish the patriots would have a. I'm not positive. I love the running backs but i. Here's what i do. Love guys their first three games and when you talk about sleepers the schedule always has to play a big part of a ray in. This is something when i used to ride my comps and espn is used to look for..
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Twelve last year. Their win total right. Now is so basically. We're already. The oddsmakers are predicting a grenade out of the saints. And i took under nine myself so i. I think there's a good potential. This team is eight. Eight wins nine losses. This season house playoffs to make it. They're minus one ten. No playoffs plus one thirty four. The nine numbers even even money. Oh that go down and you lose nothing. Union lose a vague. Did sharp convince you or you going with the With the old sage francesa his whole case about if the tight end has dropped pass in that bugs game. This saints are actually in the super bowl and that's borderline super bowl team last year with a quarterback who can actually throw deep. Now i think francis is right about the potential outcome for the saints last season but that was last fucking season the quarterback that season is jameis. Winston it's not you know drew brees who can gay manage them around a gain manage them into you. Know twelve wins Last season. I already bet They're they're under. You did okay all right so to wrap up the grenades sharp. Has the saints over under nine. House has the colts over under eight and a half. I'm leaning toward the ravens and they're over under. What was it. eleven now to do the steelers. There's also by my three. I think it's going to be between the ravens. The steelers and I think the colts are getting there but ravens steelers. I think one of those two is going to drop. I don't think we're getting three playoff teams. I gotta say with the steelers. I was ready to have them. That was gonna be my pick. And i did some. I did some recant as you know. I'm i'm not. I'm not opposed to going on the blogs and message boards for every single team. Try to see what's going on. They might have nailed their draft. It's not just i know. Their offensive line is shake is off fucking hell and i know what we saw from rothlisberger last year. Though it does seem like they're gonna make it easier for them but the tight end that they got. And then naji harris to. It really seems like they have to guys who are going to come in and be like impact dudes sharp would have you heard about the tight end. Yeah farmers he looks great in the preseason right like they need receiving tight end ben always years ago. Ben made a comment that like. I try not to forget things that are of this nature. He said i liked tall. Receivers in the red zone and vermouth is the type of guy who can be a target for ben down inside the red. So it doesn't surprise me that he's going to lean on him For some touchdown upside one of the reasons they went after chase klay pool as well but just tell you built like i liked najah harris as a player and maybe a team should have taken him in the first round because he has that upside. Although i personally disagree that you need to value a running back in the first round i disagree with the fact that their offensive line was sufficient enough that they could afford to draft. A running back is the opportunity cost there and agree i also will say that preseason stats are relatively meaningless although get ready for me to like share some stuff on your boy mack jones however look at the steelers leading rushers. This preseason behind this line again take take it with a grain of salt. The leading rusher in terms of attempts was jalen samuel. She averaged two point nine yards per carry on thirty nine. Thirty one rushes. Anthony mcfarland was the number two leading. Rusher he three point. Zero najah harris was the number three. He averaged three point. Two and caylin balaj was number four. He averaged four point one k on their average a even average what the nfl average yards per carry. Are i do think the steelers. I would have liked to bet against them. There's a lotta things that are going to regress for a grenade. I could see it for a win. Total however the problem for me was the win. Total has already been taken into account the fact that they're going to step back. They want eight teams last year. It's down to eight and a half the odds makers you know credit. Where credit is due. They did a great job of removing all opportunity to bet this team under. Because i don't see a whole lot of value. Embedding them under eight and a half. I really don't see that ridiculously low of a floor that this team's winning four or five games. I think even in a bad year. What is the worst six problem or likely. Seven or eight games for the pittsburgh steelers so I just think there's no value in the win. Total but certainly from a grenade perspective. No more than nine wins for the steelers. I think certainly A potential brutal scheduled to house at buffalo week one which is a loss their own one. There haven't been a five team parlay week four week. Five weeks six at packers home denver home seahawks on a night game and then they finished the year home ravens at vikings on a thursday titans home Home for the titans achieves home browns at ravens. Here's why i haven't. I'm gonna wait another week before. I decide ravens steelers. Here's what scares me about the steelers. 'cause i i get the offensive line stuff. Last year. they had the worst runs per attempt. I think of any half decent to good team. They have so many weapons now if fryer myth is good right away and we know naji harris is going to be a hundred times better than james connor. I love all the stuff. I've read about him like he's definitely one of those if you've read any of the pieces about him he's one of those actually have to tell him to leave the facility at night guys recyc- hey we're turning off the lights. You have to go like. He's one of those guys and then their receivers clay and shuster dante johnson. They just have a shitload of weapons. I think if rothlisburger unless he completely sucks now. That's a team that you've got you by the way but house. Why am i afraid of the steelers. Why am i afraid of all these weapons. Plus all the defense they have. Your brain is wrapped around a version of rothlisberger. That no longer exists. She is in the bottom. He's one of the worst Quarterbacks in the league at deep passing thirty i in this is straight out of the the sharpie a bible here thirty first in completion percentage at twenty eighth and passer rating last season on on deep passes. Those weapons exists. They're good weapons ben. Rothlisberger is thirty nine years old and looks and plays like. He's thirty nine years old and their backup quarterback stink..
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Who do you have. I grenade for you house. Already mentioned it. I'm going to go ahead and throw it out. I know james looked brilliant against the fucking jacksonville. Jaguars fast one of the worst teams in the nfl. And keep in mind. Those passes he threw passes no doubt about it. We're talking about some ridiculous catches that callaway had to make to bring those in. So let's let's put that off the side but for me. I'm going to go with the saints. I don't dislike the colts. They were on my list as well. But for the saints. Here's my big issue with the saints. No matter how we ended up slicing it. I know james looked looked pretty good but i believe that the saints are going to inevitably end up running the football a little bit more because drew brees isn't there and there's a little bit less trust in the quarterback situation without drew brees and when that happens what is going to be the result is it's going to be difficult to maintain efficiency on early downs when you're passing less than inevitably you're going to be facing more third down attempts and those third down attempts on average are going to be longer yards to go than they were last season and as a result your offense overall is going to be worse. It's going to be faced with these more third down attempts with longer yards to go which are obvious passing situations which then the defense can pin their ears back. You're gonna get sacked more often. You're going to turn the ball. More often throw interceptions or sack. Fumbles and this is a recipe for disaster for team like the saints. That was just so good with drew brees at playing on schedule eliminating turnover staying ahead of the sticks and fix efficiently moving the football down the field. I simply think that you're gonna have jamie's and a little sprinkle of tastes. And and i just i just don't like the involvement of tastes them. I don't think this is anywhere close to the situation. You may have in san francisco. Where is the jimmy. Garoppolo show early in the season but will insert a little bit trae lance which has some really high upside plays in. You can actually throw the football down the field. This is like a totally different version. That haysom is bad okay. Charlie shirt tastes hymns. Tastes them say young. Qb like trae. lance no no taste is. He's thirty years old. That got information. I didn't realize it was thirty. He is old and look. I mean god bless him you know. He's he's he's probably a really nice guy but the reality is she is not a quarterback in the modern air football. He's fine for like line. Runs short yardage drawn. You kind of are very predicted on the field. A little bit like cam newton yet much worse as a passer. In my opinion i knew. You're big on a big mac and down kipton. I have seen came. I'm a huge mack. Jones fan we could talk about mack. Come on i four. We do that. I'm gonna break out an old pack of cigarettes for back. Jones subjects ob so giddy about backbones. I can't even talk about. So here's the case for free estimate on thursday on the saints for them actually going over. That breeze really held them back last year. Because brees was just bad bike. He couldn't through passes. And if you if your banking on this this marquez. Calloway who everybody is. You know having a circle jerk about as like the sleeper fantasy receiver of all time this year. Just becoming michael thomas and then you can somehow right the michael thomas ship at some point during the season and james has the ability to fling the ball around. You got sean payton and the whole thing like you don't think they could still go ten and seven will look i. I think i think yours the issue with james okay. Let's take it back to your team. The patriots how did i know it's slightly different situation. Not a perfect parallel. But tom brady without rob gronkowski in two twenty nineteen and with shit receivers in two thousand nineteen looked terrible right. Like let's be honest. He did not look good whatsoever. Then he goes down to. Bruce arians offense in tampa bay. And he's got mike evans and he's got chris godman. Of course gronkowski comes back. But he's got a lot of good wide receivers that are in tampa and he looks like a million bucks will guess where james looked like a million bucks in the offense that all on brady looked good. Now what is james going to in new orleans. I love sean payton. And if the saints make the postseason and potentially make iran. He's coach of the year. In my opinion you've got to maybe get a little bit down on a future for sean payton coach of the years and outside shot if the saints end up doing something really well but from a grenade perspective james now going here. Calloway seems to be a stud. But he's completely unproven. Who the hell knows when. Michael thomas is gonna come back and the rest of that. Receiving core is one of the worst in the nfl. They just lost their tight end. Trautmann for a little while like i think this receiving core is very bad. Clearly in my opinion they're number. One receiver is going to be the running back alvin kamara. He's going to catch the most passes there. That's far from an ideal situation to game plan and offense around. We're talking about james like pushing the ball down the field and like giving more of an arm shrink but i think the guys catching the most passes closer. Linux scrimmaging alvin kamara so. I don't disagree that he's going to be able to do some things that drew brees couldn't do but i'm also not convinced that all the sudden is smart. Decisions are going to be there. All the negative decisions are going to be gone. He's not going to turn the ball over. He's not gonna take bad sacks he's not gonna fumble the ball so i think there's a lot of potential for the saints to go under their win total which is nine and a grenade..
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"Coordinate the way the sharpie thinks about it trace mcsorley in tyler huntley for an organization like baltimore and by the way. We just saw the gardner. Miss you was available available. My god now. Could he hit flourished in this baltimore officer. David been a nice. Backup to to lamar. So i'm with you on the souring but my my question is what are they going to do about quarterback in baltimore sharpie well. I think what they did. Tyler huntley i believe is moved up into the second place guy there. And if you're exactly but if you if you have an offense. That's totally taylor tour towards lamar jackson. There's two ways to look at it number one. If he goes down and he's out for most of the season you're screwed anyways right. Yes but if he only needs to be replaced for game or two you want a guy. That's going to do some of the things similar to lamar jackson. You don't really want a guy like the gardner menchu. Because he can't do. Your offense is geared towards the mobile quarterback. That's gonna handle awful lot and and not really throw as many passes. So i don't think carter mint shoe fits in re really well there. And there aren't a whole lot quarterbacks that actually do and so. I think that that's what their issue is. They aren't funneling a lot of money into the quarterback position. They've got lamar jackson. They're about to have to pay him. Make a decision for the time being would. They're spending all their cap. Space on is all the other players around him. They wanna make a big run this season and they aren't willing to funnel it into the backup quarterback position so it's lamar bust service. That's how old fantasy strategy right like in the old days in our basketball league if you took shack at center like what are you even want to draft a backup center in the first eight rounds because if jack goes down you're it's it's it's a very different proposition in this current era with the nfl the particular circumstances of this nfl season and unprecedented. That's season i don't mention is the right guy i think. No i'm just making a joke. Ironically watching pats giants today. I can't believe the giants didn't get mentioned. I can't believe i mean people. Listen to podcasts. Know how i feel about men show. I would have been totally fine rolling with him and mack jones quarterbacks this year i don't get the men she thing in the fact that jacksonville gave them away. I thought was really weird to. Why are you giving away somebody with thirty seven touchdowns at eleven picks the last two years on some pretty good teams. I think he's gonna go to philly i. He's going to win that job. At some point it will be in the first eight weeks or so sharp. Why why give men show ad and get that. I thought the whole thing was totally stupid. Utterly stupid by the jacksonville jaguars. You are taking away. Reps from trevor lawrence. I know that urban meyer is going to come in here and you know i talk to people on various different teams. I know that urban meyer was all about. We're not gonna hand anything to anybody. Even the number one overall pick you have to earn it. There's competition so that's what this whole thing was but let's be realistic. If the guy that is competing with the number one overall draft pick one of the best quarterback prospects in years is then worth trading for only a sixth round pick. What are you even doing year with what you think about. This is good enough to play with trevor lawrence. You just trading him away for a sixth round pick. That's what everybody else thinks of him. And that's what you clearly think he's worth because you were willing to give him up for that. I totally agree. I think that the way that means you was handled last season. If you read the chapter in the book on the jaguars yet. It was an atrocity by by by j rooted in ed jackson milwaukee him cerebral totally a nincompoop. Move with what he was doing in terms of how he's handling not so i agree i think gartner minhsiu is better than what most people think. Guard dementia is. I'm fully on board with your take bill in that regard. I think the eagles got a steal getting him for sixth round. Pick and i just thought for taking away wraps from trevor lawrence. You need him to get ready. This is a long as hell season. You need him to be primed. You need to say oh well actually. I've seen him in games. I've seen him in practices with the ones. This is what he's good at. This is what he struggles with. Let me try to introduce these other concepts you know. Also gordon makes you is not the type of running quarterback. Trevor lawrence's you need to work on your. Qb runs down inside the red zone. The five yard line. Install these different packages that you aren't gonna have in their. If men shoes there. I just felt like they were wasting time and then they dealt him for a sixth rounder by the way. Where is indianapolis. That's another one another greatly. They're gonna go indianapolis if they don't figure out you know wentz doesn't come back when they think he's when they're hoping he comes back and they have the wrong. Qb for those first five games they could Take a completely other season house. Who do you have for your first grenade. well. I'm glad you started with indianapolis because i think that they're definitely in the running. I mean This the saints are kind of like an unnatural grenade and You know there's there's all the factors that point to The the the limitations that they have their to starting ride receivers right now are are questionable Thomas out for a more indefinite time and jameis winston now. He looked pretty good. This kind of sold me on the states on thursday quebec to the colts second. They were eleven and five last year so for them to be an official grenade. They would have to eight nine this year. They are even odds. Basically not to make the playoffs and they're over under for wins is Eight and a half there plus one forty four the division that first five games i mentioned home seahawks home rams at titans at dolphins at ravens on a monday night and they might have you know jacob as as a qb.
The Bill Simmons Podcast
"warren sharp" Discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast
"And i'm craig hornbeck. We host the ringer fantasy football. Show on the ringer podcast network to avoid eating twelve waffles waffle house. Follow the ringer. fancy football. Show on spotify. This episode is brought to you by direct. Tv stream introducing activity stream the best alive to be an on demand. Which means you can watch your favorite sports movies and shows on one place. Whether you're gonna catch game live or watch the latest blockbuster. They've got you covered and no annual contract direct. Tv stream get your tv together at direct tv dot com compatible device required. Content varies by package. The subset of the bill. Simmons podcast is brought to you by ziprecruiter. Ziprecruiter knows that the general experience look for a job is pretty sucky. That's why they figured out a way to make it unsexy when you sign up at ziprecruiter dot com you can create a free profile and then you get matched a great jobs plus a lot. More ziprecruiter will proactively pitcher profile to employers. Who jobs match your experience possibly like the job you can apply to and many others. Just one click. Is that easy. Sign up for free. End ziprecruiter dot com today and experience. The better way to find a job once again. Ziprecruiter dot com right now to sign up absolutely free and put ziprecruiter to work for you. The bill simmons podcast is brought to you by vandals sportsbook as well as the ringer. The ringer podcast network. This is part. Two of our big sunday podcast. If you missed part one johasson. I talked to a lot of goff and some mba over anders as well because the first way we even have our first locks that we like for the season. Although we're not gonna really dive into that october. That was really fun. This podcast weren't sharp. Is going to join us and we're going to talk. Nfl for the next almost one hundred minutes so that is all coming up. Let's bring back pearl jam. I'm so excited. Let's bring back a second time here. We go our guy. Warrant sharp is here. You're going to be carrying on the ringer podcast. Weights be three times a week this year..