2 Episode results for "Warhol Lichtenstein"

100-Year Bonds Could Alter How Rate Risk Is Traded

P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz

30:18 min | 1 year ago

100-Year Bonds Could Alter How Rate Risk Is Traded

"Welcome to the bloomberg p._n._l. Podcast i'm paul sweeney along with my co-host this abramowicz each day we bring you the most noteworthy in useful interviews is for you and your money whether at the grocery store or the trading floor find a bloomberg pl podcast on apple podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts as well as at bloomberg dot com and every six months or so the debate about whether the u._s. should sell fifty to one hundred year bonds emerges and once again we have that battle raging treasury secretary steve mnuchin weighing in and saying that it seemed really <hes> like a logical thing to do for the u._s. To sell ultra long dated bonds in in the face of just how low interest rates have gone and his advisors are looking into it and are expected to recommend against it but paul. It really raises this question again and again dan. What is the hold up if the borrowing costs are so low and if the holdup is that compelling why do we have this debate every six months joining us out of disgust discuss marcus ashworth columnist covering european markets as well as bond markets globally for bloomberg opinion joining us from london so marcus. Let's just start with widened treasury secretary steven mnuchin revive this debate that seems to sort of bubble up every six months or so because he was told to buy yeah behind you behind you behind the cutting who knows <hes> the great thing is the treasury borrowing advisory committee the key word there being advisory. <hes> keeps sometimes push this back because the u._s. treasury put on dealer and it's difficult enough trying to trade city is key matching trying to trade a hundred years or even stripped hundred years all of a sudden someone comes along list you out of five hundred million. You have no hope of getting back and khalid paying five points higher. It's a disaster. It's try and manage. This type have a risk from a dealer mock. Mega put point of view. They now also if a client buys this stuff look the way no come back for. What a hundred years so. Do you know it it. It kills the quality kills <hes> the sense of controlling risk it kind of cools credit a whole bunch of stuff. I mean look to make this sort of sector world. You'd have to five hundred futures <hes> options and all the other stuff i it could be it could really stretch the way that people trade risk and and trade <hes> duration comeback vexed in and it could do all sorts of things but the u._s. Treasury has to be committed to it for a long time clare plan. The trouble is that trump could be out of office in little areas e._s. Timing the treasury secretary could do the opposite so that's what scares people because you know once you go down this route. You've gotta stay committed to it and there has to be a rational reason for it. Now career on yields are incredibly low. It makes sense for as far as the government's been son but you have to have your client base and pensions funds with you and though they may be in europe and sending in u._k. And different reasons there's less domon and requirement in the u._s. Because you already have strict thirty which gives you a duration of fun off exactly study is a fifty irregular on so there's less real need for it but still listed a government on on doing different things so marcus are there other developed developed markets that have longer dated bonds fifty one hundred years and can we take any sing away from those okay look so in europe. <hes> jeremy doesn't go over thaddeus. <hes> we starting to see other countries around it. <hes> go fast and we know australia's on a one hundred bones <hes> at least fifty on on tapped it again. <hes> franz has done fifty years u k goes out as far as us fifty years sweden's about to look at possibly being one hundred years honoring in belgium. Just <hes> <hes> probably places the last couple of years in one hundred years but that's like one offs so they really you can look at maybe if lee to certain degree u._k. Okay definitely <hes> possibly franz have any form of the quantity further out but it's becoming more and more popular because there is a huge huge hunt for yield. You're much more extreme than you see in the u._s. and uglier on it's it's definitely dab marcus. I mean how much is the obstacle for the u._s. The fact that u._s. this rates are such an important benchmark and that you know a shift in the whole curve creates a much more challenging situation than say in some of these these nations in europe that where there's more of a composite type rate that is sort of the benchmark for a lot of other debt in other words it won't matter as much to the whole structure sure of of a huge debt market if they issue longer data debt as it would in the u._s. Lisa you've been doing bonds in quite a while spot on exactly right and that is that is the the number of the argument. I couldn't put it back. You know look i it does he have on. Does it all for them. Australia likewise reason why germany hasn't done perhaps in ah in europe that really need the money and that have the potential of illiquidity out there and this is a this is exactly the point if you go out to one hundred years you've got to be. I'm convinced it's it's it's a worthwhile thing there's huge demand for it and it's gonna be somebody's hangs around and you're gonna be patient. Courtly you know decent amounts. Some money got a crater features mocking blah blah blah you all the world's interest rate benchmark you you mess that at your peril you have a fantastic city a liquid liquid bond which has strips off it which has tips off it. It's everything works perfectly. Why mass something which is perfection and couldn't he comes uh-huh and and you know for what benefit yeah i i get the point that it's looking at very low rates for a long long while but you know right so he is not not enough here all right so my my my takeaway lisa's mark is not a big fan of the fifteen hundred years to see unlikely. I'll never gonna be made me a market one hundred oh ooh marcus ashworth thank you so much for joining us marcus's economist covering european markets for bloomberg opinion from lung and you can read more on this and other stories from bloomberg opinion <hes> at bloomberg dot com slash opinion and on the turmoil by typing opie. I n go doc well as investors. Come back next week from the long holiday weekend. They're gonna take a look at their portfolios and they're going to say hey we're ten plus years into this economic cycle all trait uncertainties out there weighing on my portfolio but i've got a dovish fed. What should i do maybe to get some answers. Welcome our next guest. Deputy chief investment officer her for the americas for deutsche bank wealth management joins us here on bloomberg interactive brokers studio deepak. Thanks so much for joining us so again. We kind of look at the s. and p. and it's kind of flat over the last s. twelve months. We've had a great rally this year but again. If you look at it over the trailing twelve months kind of flat what are you telling the deutsche bank wealth investors how they you should be preposition to portfolio right now great. Thank you paul. I think couple things a what we have seen over. The last one year. Especially to date is primarily primarily driven by what we would call a p expansion. It's not really driven by corporate earnings going up <hes> so keep that in mind as you've position yourself for the next next <hes> few quarters having said that i think there are certain things for the next couple of months that makes us take a little bit cautious stance. <hes> you know you look at the trade war oh that's going on. Even though there was an olive branch yesterday from the chinese we feel this a protracted sort of a give and take one step forward the two steps back kind of situation and we really don't expect a comprehensive trade deal anytime soon on top of that the next couple of quarters that third quarter is going to be by far for the first quarter of this calendar year for the earning season and then the fourth quarter could be the low water mark for the g._d._p. So the next couple of quarter definitely something to keep an eye on <hes> having said that i think longer term you know things look much better for equities especially. We haven't seen the top you know when you look at how the equity markets end the usually end up with the bank last twelve months as you just pointed out as been relatively flat ish so this is not really really a very top heavy kind of an equity market still sea legs in this market for twelve months forecast remains around three thousand but that is primarily driven the little bit better earnings than pey expansion that we have seen the more recently one counterpoint is that a lot of the bearishness that you talk talk about has been baked into evaluations currently and we've seen a sell off that really has stemmed from the recognition of some of those pessimistic kind of developments that you were talking about. Bank of america came out this morning and recommends buying stocks right now because they say that the bearishness has gotten so extreme that it makes sense. What do you say data that. I wanted to say that the bearishness is to an extreme. I think there's a you know and you have to take into account what the other asset classes are telling your signaling. Thanks i think the bearishness israeli at an extreme many look at the fixed income markets. You know they are really highlighting a really pessimistic scenario for the for inflation nation for growth and and so forth on the equity markets side currently trading at seventeen eighteen times multiple which is to my mind is pretty much where it should be you know when you look at how to assign a multiple on markets you have to look at both what i would call structural forces at play and then the sec nicole trend and the cyclical trend is what we call earnings curve. There's a lot of talk about yield curve and yield curve inversion but i see a lot less focus on earnings curve which is simply put next twelve month earnings subtracting the trailing twelve months earning and what's the trajectory for that earning school and that's still as positive so that's i think to an extent a positive take on the on the other side when you look at the <hes> more structural forces at work that could be a little bit of a downside so that is looking at inflation prognosis and so forth so all that seventeen and a half multiple seems reasonably fair to us and that's what we are saying that for the next month. It stays where it's at. I would be recommending a little bit of an underweight position to your neutral at this stage. Given the next couple of quarters could be a little bit shakey as i said earlier so <hes> you know if you have a fifty percent neutral location to equity. Maybe maybe this is the time view. Take some profits of the table markets are up fifteen sixteen percent and reallocate or keep some extra money in cash so in your scenario in your outlook for the markets. How aggressive do you think the fed is going to be. And how progressive do you think they need to be to kind of. Support your outlook so i think there is a little bit of a disconnect in terms of what the fed futures market is saying and what the the reality is. You look at the numbers especially from the consumers coming coming in yesterday today. Yesterday's the revision on the g._d._p. Side you see the consumer spending number at four point seven multi year high this morning. We saw the corpse number inching a little bit upwards. I think the fed has has to act a given the jackson old speech each and also the preemptive insurance rate cut that they started the july meeting with <hes> so they probably go for a cut here in september meeting but after that i think the incoming data dictates and <hes> our view is to rate cuts for the next twelve months which is a little bit not as aggressive at what the status expecting and primarily our take is dependent on the fact that we see consuming much better health than what the fed is looking at. I think the fed is very myopically looking at an maybe not as myopic but they're really concerned about the overseas market what's the other central banks doing the manufacturing slump up in the global economy and that's creating some level of anxiety on top of that the trade war that has the potential really having a second third derivative relative effect that no one really has the policy measures to counteract so i think that's really where the fed comes into play but we still think of this as a sort of an insurance policy cut face so two to three rate cuts or similar to nine hundred ninety five ninety eight and not really start if an easing cycle which would be two thousand one two thousand or two thousand eight deep up. Thank you so much for being with us. Diba pori chief investment officer for the americas at deutsche bank wealth management joining us here in our bloomberg interactive brokers studios was talking about a bit of cautiousness heading into the next few months right now. We're seeing a bit of cautiousness clawing back. Some of the earlier gains that we saw ian in u._s. Equities nasdaq up now just four basis points almost flat on the day after starting solidly in the green. We are seeing bond yields <hes> coming off earlier highs as well. It seems like people get a little more skeptical. Ahead of trade talks this weekend and the art investing. Should it be a part of your portfolio. Our next guest thinks maybe it should be dr carvey menace. He's an art collector board member of the namesake and the namesake of the menace art and education center the nassau county museum of art documentary. Thanks so much for joining us here in our bloomberg interactive brokers studio so again. We've heard about from time to like when i think about investing in art i think about these big hedge fund managers going out and spending gazillions of dollars on art. Do you think it should be part of of maybe the average investor's portfolio well. Thank you for inviting me and i think it's a good investment. As a matter of fact the wall street regional <hes> came out a couple of months ago stating that art was the best investment for two thousand eighteen off work was up ten point six percent while while the s&p was down five point one percent and through the years ought has been quite a good investment. I've been collecting for over forty years and i've purchased peach. The pieces that were let's save one thousand five thousand ten thousand and they've increased twenty and thirty fold and during a good times people beloved money and they can they can buy art and and if you look at the graph of prices of art it continues to rise very rarely. Does it go down. I let let's start start with how you got into this. In the first place you're an orthopedic surgeon by day investor finite and then perhaps if you have a few that you're back at your carpentry route. So how did you get into this sort of art and gusting world while i always love art as a child i would my father would take me to the brooklyn museum and i lived in kind of air. A rough neighborhood was crown heights and and my friends were not interested in museums seems nobody around there was interested in museums except when my father would take me i love looking around at the old masters and the impressionists and and the different paintings i just loved art and when i went to college i was a pre med major but i actually majored in art history. So i took a lot of art history classes. <hes> then when i a <hes> finished medical school and i was able to save a few shekels <hes> i started buying art. So how would you suggest that that someone get started in the art business in kind of art investing in art okay very good question. There are many anyways to buy art. You can buy at the auctions. You can buy it galleries art fairs. You can buy online now. Buying online is is a very good <hes> venue <hes> and you don't have to spend a lot of money of course you can spend hundreds of millions like some of the matisse and picasso's actually couldn't. I heard you boarded the davinci like that person. Look back at my records anyway. Carry out so you can buy a lithograph lithographs. Let's say from chagall picasso famous artists that i just happened to mention could be between one thousand and one hundred thousand so if you have a you you know just a few thousand dollars to invest via lippo from one of the famous artists now there are certain parts of an areas of art that go up <hes> <hes> faster than other areas so we have the old masters that increase in value may before five percent a year we have the modern artists like picasso and and legia asia and dolly that increase in value. I don't know six seven eight percent per year and then you have the contemporary. The contemporary market is hot as hell. Yes and i say that is really hot and we have artists like damien hirst jeff koons and especially while warhol lichtenstein the pop artists are still very hot but the graffiti artists are doing amazingly. Well artists like basquiat keith haring kenny scharf off and now feld 'cause k. a._w._s. There are so hot you buy now and within a year or two they will definitely definitely increase in value so if let's say it's not one of the top names. How do you determine whether something's good also also good question first of all you're gonna. This is a collection and you have to really like. Would you buy you just can't buy because you think it's an investment. You're going to have have to hold onto these pieces for a while. It's not a flip type of thing. Let's say like real estate or or stocks. You have to hold onto it seeking to live with it so you have to find a piece that you really like the color of the design. Whatever said you like and then as far as i'm sorry i yeah i'm just thinking about you know you ask you ask the dealer you you ask the auction house. You get prices. You do due diligence. You do your due diligence. Go online put the artists naming. Let's say the artist is john. Smith put it online and you'll see the prices is <hes> if he sold in galleries and auctions but if you if you're talking about an up and coming artist that has not had any sales at auctions or or or major galleries then it's difficult then it's a crapshoot but i try to buy like stocks tried to buy blue-chip artists and <hes> and occasionally by like an overnight. What do they call us the pink sheets occasionally alibi on on a pink sheet but then you're taking a risk so how about for someone like me with little to absolutely no experience. I don't watch spot fakes or is that a risk that i have to really deal with something. That's just it's. It's not it's fake. It's not authentic well thomas hoving the director of the modern art museum <hes> said that forty percent scent of the art museums of fake so it's very hard to really stay away from fakes but what you need is provenance. You buy a piece and you need the papers from the gallery laurie from the auction provenance that this is an authentic piece. Where is the bid coming from keeps prices continually marching higher. Is there sort of the the chinese buyer that's been coming in or the european buyer or is it everywhere just more that it becomes sort of you know popularized realized online at cetera the more everything is worth well you have people who buy our poor very wealthy and it's kind of the prestige type of thing <hes> so that that pushes the prices up as well but there are more museum's opening up every year <hes> more people people are educated. More people are going to museums every year and people want to you know have art in their in their life. It's beautiful to be surrounded around by wonderful pieces of art besides the fact that it's a very good investment so if i go to an auction destroyed. What do i need to know so. I just wait. Wait my little paddle. When i like something. We'll yeah i guess now. That's a big nick paton. Okay but you look you before you bid you have to you look the artists and the auction catalogue. We'll we'll have a low estimate and a highest mitt so they they do a lot of the due-diligence for you. Let's say a pieces <hes> estimated between ten and twenty eight thousand so you know you look it up and online and see if this is <hes> you know within your price range and you see if you think it's fair and you could call the auction or the gallery and ask for previous prices and asked him how they came up with this particular estimate dr harvey menez. Thank you so much for spending time with us. Think what my book collect dough. Mauri dr harvey man is is an art collector board member and the namesake of the mantis art and education occasions that are at the nassau county museum of art and he has a book collecting art for pleasure and profit that he is holding up and you can find it on amazon and and others hurricane doreen continues to bear down on the state of florida expected to make landfall landfall. Perhaps monday of next week the question really is where will it make landfall to help get the latest we welcome matthew pala senior analyst covering property and casualty insurance for bloomberg intelligence. He joins us here in our bloomberg interactive brokers studio and brian sullivan energy and commodities reporter for bloomberg news in our bloomberg one zero six one studio in boston brian. Let's start with you. Can you just give us the latest on what we know about the storm so the storm is on the verge of becoming a category three which will make it a major did you hurricane and it is potentially going to be a category four when it finally gets to the florida coast <hes> late monday early tuesday <hes> right now the current aren't thinking is that it will be somewhere between fort lauderdale port lucy and florida's <hes> southeast coast so matthew given the fact that you focus on insurance insurance companies and that they're expected to have potentially billions of dollars of losses <hes> with this hurricane. I'm wondering where do you see which companies are going to be most affected head. Which what are you watching sure so. The market share of homeowners insurance in florida is mostly dominated by smaller regional companies large mutual non-public insurance companies and the state run insurance company so the large national companies like a._i._g. Chubb allstate progressive they they will have exposure but they're kind of the bottom half of the top ten of market share not only that but they're pretty significantly protected by reinsurance so in the event of a really really lorge storm. It's probably the smaller regional companies who are most in jeopardy so brian. I guess the question is if it comes across as it makes landfall as a category for obviously major major storm. I know one of the things i've been reading about and hearing about this storm is kind of the speed at which the storm is moving i e it's not going very fast so that suggests that there could be some significant damage well. What are you hearing <hes> yeah so. There's two things that are going to happen. One is it's gonna come ashore and you're going to have that that initial burst of really intense wins wins in a small area plus the storm surge and that's going to cause most your damage right along the coast but as you point out then it's gonna stall out. It's gonna sit over florida for maybe a couple of days and this is a city situation similar but not exactly the same as what happened in texas with harvey where it just came out and it just rung itself out so <hes> i've been watching the rainfall rainfall totals. Just keep going up and right now. We're in the six to fifteen. Interchange is really interesting to me from an insurance point of you you matt because the more rain there is the more relief there probably is some of these insurance companies right because isn't flood insurance covered by any government and not necessarily their purview isn't that correct that is true so the federal government <hes> basically backstops most of the private flood insurance. There is commercial flood insurance so so you could see private companies. Show us see some of those losses but <hes> for the most part a lot of flood. <hes> doesn't impact these companies one thing that i find really interesting so there are some estimates of fifty three billion dollars for the potential losses for this storm. Is that correct. That's insured values of where it was taming towards well but so so what i'm struggling to understand is just in the larger context these slow moving storm seemed to be increasingly common so how do insurance durance companies changed their calculus as this increasingly happens. I mean basically our insurance. Premiums going up dramatically as each storm arm happens are probably not not as each storm happens but certainly over time insurers are definitely reacting to hire catastrophe prone areas like california and wildfire wildfire and florida with hurricane so not only are they pulling back capacity but they're a buying more protection for these areas as well so brian. I know you recover commodities for bloomberg news what's been the projected impact on some of the citrus and other kind of produce and and so on for the state of florida it it could get very bad <hes> in that situation especially if the storm kind of drags its way northward up the peninsula <hes> <hes> you know the area where it's going to come in and make landfall is not necessarily a heavy par <hes> citrus producer but <hes> that's further north up the peninsula and ah the storm goes up there and you get these flooding rains that is it's going to add brian since you cover the weather so well and i love reading. Your story is because of always interested in what's going to be happening. How much more frequently are we seeing. These big slow moving storms just dump a lot of rain and create a whole host of problems albums. Yeah there's been a lot of discussion back and forth about that with people who study climate change for instance. You're saying that these things are becoming more common because the jetstream itself itself getting stuck and endurance situation what we're gonna have here is two very large high pressure systems one over the western to one over the great plains of the united states and because hurricanes don't move under their own power these two two monster's basically are gonna pin dorian down and that's what's gonna create and make it such a slow mover <hes> and like i said some people point to climate change of saying that you know these big high pressure systems are getting stuck more often because of the problems related with that so so matthew you mentioned earlier <hes> the reinsurance. That's one of the many areas of insurance. I don't understand explain to us kind of how the reinsurance market works and kind of how that might have they might be affected here in florida sure so it's insurance for insurance companies so like let's say you're allstate and you write a lot of homeowners insurance in florida. You might say your insurance companies. If we have losses over one billion dollars you take a certain percentage of reinsurance company so it's increasingly looking like this storm is probably going to be worse than last year's hurricane michael and terms of insured losses. Maybe closer to irma in two thousand seventeen so when you start to get into those like twenty thirty forty billion billion dollar storm losses it starts to go through the reinsurance coverage of companies so brian. How would you rank this season that we have coming up in terms of how active the hurricanes are going to be. How are people sort of talking about. It versus previous years so we're right now. We're entering the the most active period of of the hurricane season and that typically happens around this time of year like say from august twentieth to october first so we're just getting going <hes> there's two more potential storms out in the atlantic following this one and they may take a similar track so you know we could be back here in a week or two weeks talking again about florida taking. I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. The early part of the season was kind of slow but you can't really judge the rest of the season by what happens in the early part of the season so we could be in for a very active period well and we wish the best to everybody who is in the regions that are squarely in the target of hurricane doria and <hes> matt paula sula. Thank you so much for being with us brian sullivan. Thank you as well both of them for bloomberg covering from the insurance side as well as the weather and commodity side what we can n._b._a. Expecting definitely <hes> the human aspect is important honestly although the i i'm actually expecting the debate to emerge once again about the u._s. Government's program to ensure against <hes> flood damage has it's not a they don't have enough money to make it sustainable all given the payouts that we've seen in recent years and so there's going to be a big question of what you do with this program and it always sort of strikes me as the bulk of the of the damage damage gets caused by flooding incident ends up squarely in the government's hands very interesting. We'll be talking about that. Thanks for listening to the bloomberg p._n._l. All podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews at apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer on paul sweeney. I'm on twitter p._t. Sweeney and lisa abramowicz. I'm on twitter at lisa abramowicz one before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on bloomberg radio.

bloomberg florida bloomberg interactive brokers hurricane marcus ashworth lisa abramowicz fed bloomberg brian sullivan nassau county museum of art europe paul sweeney deutsche bank Treasury allstate
Anselm Kiefer interview. Plus, New York auction "gigaweek"

The Art Newspaper Weekly

37:51 min | 1 year ago

Anselm Kiefer interview. Plus, New York auction "gigaweek"

"The newspaper put coasties. Brought to you in association with Bonhams. Auction is since seventeen ninety three to find out more visit bombs dot com. Hello and welcome to the art. Newspaper puck cursed. I'm Ben Luke. Thanks expert joining US later. In the past we take the temperature of the art market in New York auction week but I am still keefer. The German artist has a new show at the White White Cube Gallery in London. And typically. He's taking on big subjects this time the scientific concept known a string theory characteristically keefer explores this mathematical muddle little imbo sculpture and painting with a much broader cultural and historical framework looking back to ancient mythology are contemporary art correspondent. Louisa Buck went to what keep cheap to meet him so unsettling the title of this exhibition that fills white. Cuban Bergonzi is super strings. RUNES GNOMES Gordian Knot. I mean that's quite a lineup. This artists but let's just zero on the super strings. This particular body of work is largely underpinned by recent explorations in string theory. Can you just talk a bit about what's brought into string theory wife. I did this paintings about Mattis. Peration I kinda done a stint ten string theory. It's so complex and so difficult and I'm not a mathematician and I read about outs in. I think twenty five years. Perhaps a read about string theory in magazines at one magazine I have. It's called a MM spectrum and they're all the new discoveries in Mathematics Chemistry Physics and and I'm really leap fascinated because it's such a vast nola Julia who develops there and and and I can always sees a connection between the old meath and the new Future explorations in physics by example but string theory. As far as I know I go to limited knowledge of these things but it hasn't actually been empirically not proven by rules or formula yet. It's still up for interpretation. Not One formalized proven by experiments normally family of physicians. They they have an idea. They have an intuition Einstein head in nine thousand nine hundred seven also and the heaven new idea about the about the context of and then batiks time until it's proven by experiments and in the case of Einstein was proven once I think ten years later also and then he goes nobre overpriced because then they thought it's religious but concern exists string theory. Nothing is proven is that what appeals to you the fact that it started with intuition intuition and it hasn't actually been hammered down into a set of rules you know in the aren't nothing is provable. You cannot prove you can approve by the deduction that this thing is a best always better than the other you cannot you you you can pretend and art is potentially it's proof is almost like a literal illustration of strings literally their wrought in these thirty enormous veterans for me to hide that run down the central corridor of white cube full of a tangled mass of wires cords all kinds industrial wiring foaming strings intertwined with mathematical theories also written on the on the glass. Is this kind of literal. Tend to give some. I'm kind of expression to this. Intuitive Tangle of unresolved theory. It's naive you know then when you are naive you have big take advantage. You can do what you want. And it's I heard about strings and I started with the mathematics and then I had by accident I bought. My neighbor was an industrial plays simple to new property in devils off. Aw this this electric stuff in and I said don't be they know they have any anything away and I held at. It's my strings string. It's naive but then I had later when I had already done some paintings that came to Titian he came in in my studio. That's it can you imagine. A mathematician about string theory. I I liked it you know. I didn't need to prove the paintings assembly but it was a nice nice exit so also also with your tangle of strings also bring in references to ancient Nordic figures the nor death at the spinners of feints and also ancient runes ancient letters as well so you'll still weaving in literally as well as quickly mythology as well as science. Since I started to work. I saw that all the means you can find in north in edged into berea in the Baruch on. They're all connected you know and you can even prove how certain people's traveled school who are coming to Europe how they brought with them. How there was modified other meat and this is fantastic? So you know it's something ever strings it's everywhere you have to mean and they're all connected and interfering how important mm time potent is it for people coming to the exhibition I mean how much do they need to know. Do they need to know anything you know. I always say you have nothing to uh looked at the paintings. And if you are attracted Innova then then you can. You can study. But it's not necessary to have started. Before I the painting has to have a certain impetus certain brilliance and then and I know a lot of people who study now so come by and to me and let's to you know but it's not necessary to be to be touched by and the scale of your work is always colossal. Aw and in these works absolutely so I mean. There's one work that the Romani John Summation which fills up an entire room and scale seems to be a very crucial part for you to draw in the viewer. To draw. Skill has nothing to do with quality. Nothing no the scale is not too much importance importance. It's more a physical thing you know. I'm I'm physically remember again dancing painting and I can intel. Do these are medium sized paintings. I have in my studio paintings. They don't fit in him. So what I like Mike very much because they can sell them throughout these new works. We see mets runic forms. References string theory but always over the top of these apocalyptic bleak. Aw Barren landscapes seems to be so much part of your language now that we associated with the manor. You've done landscapes with flowers and other things but these baron bleak landscapes that we see here's exhibition seemed to be so much part of your practice. What is it about this particular imagery that real comeback getting extreme China? My landscapes grew growing. Wear something pretty dead. The ones in this job I look pretty good for you. It's that for me burning. Something the thing is we saw action. My paintings are lot because a disparate. Like me like me but but then they a half another of this election. You know Philosophi- like so much. It's IMMEL end. He say's just throughout this has to economic last breaking means also already resurrection and also. You've talked a lot about alchemy. Lca ME BEING SO CRUCIAL TO LURK LA- making base material into here are trials and gold. They do gold and I see these works. Very how much is being a part of that particularly new vitrine afoot of the kind of rubbish. This new property you've acquired being made into art. Yeah No I. He is Sir permanent. Transformation of materia into very dangerous process. You know because this was the chimneys chimneys in a lot of accidents and stuff and in the books you can read. It doesn't mean to make gold out of let it not mental spiritual and but it has hit nevertheless economic physical effects and your materials. Israel's current become very much associated with you lead Straw combed leaf. Why do you keep battalion to these very a similar materials again again? I mean I think of you. We think of lead strong. We think sunflowers these very particular material as well as paid candidate to paint on. Why US always right in coinage itself? I use material who has spirit inside I I don't I'm not a plateau honest things. There is the theory uses the system and the system keeps form to the material I think in materia is already spirit and so for me let has spirit and I know it because I discovered it by accident in my house because I had lead pipes and I was immediately fascinated and I didn't know nothing about I. It was a young almost twenty years old or so and but I see some some spill to impact and they're very physically evidence materials when in these works here in White Cube and sticks as Straw Straw that falling out sometimes. Almost the paintings seem to be a state of about leap often reentered the world. They they move onto the time you don't see too but they move said the Lux will ways unstable absolutely not simple view. Yes you know you cannot fix fix the painting on a certain state nobody's moves. How important is it for you to be physically making? These words obviously have many assistances czar. Numerous works but you go salivate among I paint myself for them. Yeah when I put the branches ranches on I have someone behind to who fix them. You know that I put it and I paint so no no no I do do the work and yours. You born in one thousand forty five so you steeped in the ruins of the Second World War and you know been been on. I was going into the Cave of the hospital because a lot of air rats and then in our house bumped can imagine they told me. That's really that's really the sewing machine. Later I worked with this machine in the sewing machine was standing upright on to talk about on the house was done. It's fantastic testing. Do you still feel to great extent. You are still playing in the ruins of our society ruins of Europe. The way in which things you're doing I think then Reid said wants to me on what you do goes back to try to you know you you compel impaled You experience then because then the experiences are the most deep ones and I think it's I'm my leg and also playground in budget two hundred acres also playground in the north of Paris as well and other vast vol- studio studio in the old Samaritan warehouse these almost it seems to me like artworks themselves as what a studio circling Barak. Why does that sound poor computer make these environments ornaments run? Just I think a painting alone. That painting needs around opinions about for this reason. I forbid to all my gurvey's to show my work on up chess because now them put together and they kill each other you you know and nominated photo me. The Avocado is as it show. It didn't but my ghetto is. They don't do it and I think it's all a process you know in in budget. I have a lot of buildings. Buildings with paintings watercolors sculptures and it changed all the time so I changed from these two days until so it's it's It's this big movement all the time and also you have the actual spaces amphitheater Jacques Towers so in a way they feed into the work and then also are expressed is works and then often selves. I made him like paintings. The towers I just started a little bit and then it was going on and on and then destroyed in Lee. The constructed acted. It's likely to pay him so since the nine hundred you've lived in France not in Germany. But you'll still very much associated as a German painter dealing with breath. Even though you draw always vast range of mythologies people still associate you very much of the German painter dealing with German imagery is not a problem for you. Do you feel constrained by that. No no because I'm a Kennedy and don't be Norwegian Legionella. Whatever no it's it's and if you wouldn't legal denies me as a German and it wouldn't be authentic I Perhaps I try to do to build. A house is due next Rhine under German side and the the one under on the French side. It's this big half inch term and perhaps it would be nice. We we need something similar in the UK at the Majo- having his show here at a very very problematic difficult time in Britain. To put it mildly. I mean. You'll oh famously. Very in favor of a united Europe you see yourself as I'm also very much as a European. So how do you feel at the moment in this current situation situation one of your paintings actually referred as it not the European Parliament is one painting shows. One thousand empty seats and This this I I took this this this image from my Pharma University studied law and so but I thought I need this like this because I thought string theory is all about. Instability has no fixed point on on moves. And when you look at the quarks. They moved differently if we if we don't do so it's all symbol of instability and then this European Parliament this really a symbol of instability to and you are in England at the moment which is as it's most unstable phases in living memory but you know other countries are unstable to know east. German government had problems then in Gerry opponent. It's it's very strange time now. And the America don't know what would happen and so I'm not pessimistic not optimistic I see the things from another from another point. I see that what happens happens. All the time and I started so much mythological material that I can say in certain times for example in geological times. That's all what can happen happen. Because there's enough time so if I would have enough time or would be possible these paintings at white cube appear immensely apocalyptic bleak. But you also say there are about Resurrection and Growth. Do you see them as actually having some. I'm kind of comment on the Times in which living you're so turbulent and so full problem no no I think that being and non being the nothing is i. Don't see them connor logic way. I see them into same time. When is the painting? It's from your resignation of painting so I cannot be stressed by my paintings light. It is but your Expression of string theory or expirations a connection string theory with myths these different myths of the deep past it seems like investigations trying to show the interconnectedness of things. Yeah but also perhaps to try and explain what does hold us all together. Are you trying to do that. I try always unreas- to find the formula of bird. I tried to do the last painting but I will not succeed but I try join well that seems like a perfect note on which to end. Thank you very much and so thank you for coming. In and some Kiefer's exhibition superstring Bruhns. The non school not is at the White Cube Gallery until the twenty sixth. The January twenty twenty will be back at the New York auctions after this the pool. Nash is renowned for visceral depictions. The horrors of trench warfare during the first World War. He's earliest images of the war. However painted in spring nineteen seventeen on convalescent? He tripped in the dark. And broken. Rib these works well together. Gentlemen tone. Though by no means sugar coated the were leaving the trenches of bombs modern British and Irish art sale in London. This it's a vector dunes that Nash exhibited in London's goupil gallery in Medan. Seventeen bottoms director of modern. British Vista. Dourson explains the Work Goupil Exhibition. We've let the artist limited experience of the at that time. You don't even in France for a few weeks before his accident even so have immediate impact on public starved of realistic images of life at the front. Let Nash deficient wards. These early works by national escape. Mostly Lecture said the emergence of leaving in the trenches reaching. There's a significant to find out more visit. BARNUM'S DOT com. Welcome back now. It's one of the biggest moments in the art calendar New New York Auction Week I'll deputy are marketed. To Margaret. Carrigan has been at Yorktown or weak and was joined by Scott Rayburn writes for the newspaper as well as the New York Times to discuss this week's events what it tells us about the market at the end of a remarkable decade so Scott you are a art market veteran very skilled at surveying during this rocky terrain that we all terse can we not use the word veteran. I wonder you know there's been a squeeze he's on consignment this season and they're down about twenty five percent going into this week on top of that. Confidence is low thing. Art Tactic said that it's data by about twenty percent. Just since May show. How are we seeing that? Play out this week in the sales okay in terms of actual results We've seen a big drop Impressions involved sales at Christie's falling from last May Christie's would I'm fifty two percent so the business down forty percents and then last night at Christie's so the contemporary sale down forty the percent. Now what everyone in the market says Autzen in you. Marcus says that I will. The thing is the right people hadn't died died. The right people can get divorced. It's all going to be fine. The next year because the Macleod voice consign oil. Come in. That's at least seven hundred million gene. So everything's fine and so you essentially have this mentality of the goldfish going around the bowl and and so that the goldfish goes around the back. The views not so great. But you're on the front. It's fine everything is the same and that in the sense is the big question about the art market. Is it the same. Is it all going to be fine. Is there a status quo that just continues and continues continues and the key thing is demand everyone talks about supply and saying well if the right supply comes along the figures will be great. It'll be fine I actually I. This is a big question but I just wonder about supply because Ah Nets did a very very interesting report which showed that when you look at total auction sales over the last ten years The high when you adjust for inflation Was In two thousand eleven. Not Six six point nine billion dollars since then toodle haven't even got within a billion so essentially it the the whole whole market is treading water at the same time. If you look at wealth reports The number of billionaires since the financial financial crisis since two thousand nine has doubled Now they're number wealth reports but one Won Miss Recent. Put the wealth of billionaires. This is just billionaire. This is not multimillionaires just nine trillion so billionaire suspending less than naught point one percent of the disposable wealth on a hot which is a minute mute amount now why hasn't the art market got further traction the when you walk around the other so meet new people coming into to the market that flooding in you the auctions you go to the office you see exactly the same people you see one or two new faces so what is concerning about the the market is everyone feels. Oh it's fine things just carry on normal but all the time more more wealthy people aren't buying and this is the art market has any number of elephants in the room but that's one of the bigger elephants so actually demand is not increasing using a matches a concern so this raises two questions for me which is one the reliability of auctions as the kind of benchmark of show the art mark is doing this is notoriously a fraught offcially. They own so I think when we're when we're looking at a slow season as in like we are right now in New York. I wonder how much we can temper our expectations when you're saying like we're treading water. Isn't that better than declining necessarily surly but then at the same time you're saying we are have been in decline like numbers in two thousand eleven so I guess it's how do we. How do we square that circle? Ercole there what I would say that. If you look at presumption that this series of sales the so-called gateway hate that Fraser husband but this so-called Mulkey ocoee series of sales. You look the numbers at the they start in two thousand fourteen. And that was a great season with it Koso- from Delta Elsa that made two point two billion then we had a high of two point. Three billion in two thousand seventeen gene in two thousand sixteen was down to one point one but essentially these sales are in a band of roughly one point eight to two point. Two billion this. This season may be down but that to my mind is that's treading water. I know statistics lie all the time but the difficult it. It doesn't indicate that the needle is moving to me and what kind of repercussions you think. That's going to have for the art market as a whole if we're just looking at the auctions now okay where do you. Where do you think that points us going forward? Well the thing is the Obviously the impression Multan cells. Now I'm old enough to remember. Nineteen eighty cells. where the Japanese and the black tie that? Which is the old Peter Wilson Model He? He really really changed the market with the gold. China's sale back in one thousand nine hundred fifty seven fifty eight of eighty one that completely changed the nature of the art market and it's essentially sleep in the same model since then evening sales to create as much international interest as possible. Then you go to some mold sale now and it's a very very very different thing. It's full of people of a certain age you didn't see young people the material because it's been so heavily traded There's very little fresh material There'll be one or two lots in an evening. That fly for example celebrates had a really beautiful Giacometti bust of Diego. That had sensational pattern Asian and it was great cars and that went nuts went Welt W. estimates from about thirteen point five. That's a great object. But that's just one lot you were there in the room in a lot after lot after lot cells Dell's to Single bid to Asia or Russian I don't know how long these people are going to the end of the market. And then when you look at the numbers as an investment vehicle. That's particularly interesting. Because at at Christie's that taught lot was that that lovely McGreevey it knocked turn now. That seem to do pretty well. It made fools nineteen point nine hundred point five with premium but the seller aborted privately. Five years before for twenty one. And if you drill into the numbers with Particularly Impressions Multan quite concerning because people aren't making money out of it and people were in a market where people actually must build and Care Valley on the all they just want to make money out of it and since they start. Stop making money. That is going to be a moment of concern. Came we talk a little bit about the postwar and contemporary market. Because we're halfway through those sales week we've got some other beasts night Christie's last night but Christie's was equally as may be concerning turning is the earlier sales this week. like you said forty percent Down and also forty percent of the lots went hammered on their lowest met. Waterlo yeah so it just shows even even leaner season that there's that people really aren't Getting up their pocket for this kind of work anymore and While they're a few record set last night For Charles White Thomas and Ellsworth Kelly and of course the ED every show you thank you. I wonder with as you're saying that the people aren't making money and contemporary art has been so hyped up in the past five years especially not really a as an asset class as we kind of reached this new plateau. Do you think that that demand will suffer there too and that we will see the financial financial ization chat around contemporary art slip. Well looking at the day sales isn't it because in the sense that's where the action is And there's a fascinating sort of what I call the spin cycle. There where you have autism really really really hot every wants to buy them I spoke to dealer who Josh Lily teric for jaw. Show show in London He said he had full hundred people wanting to buy that. God four hundred So on put around the results on the day styles and the trouble on the Self Bandwagon keeps on going alone. You know there was a very strong work actually estimator eight hundred three fifty. Now I've actually spoken to her about this. She's she's very concerned about this it's incredibly difficult and wearing syndrome. Young artists being turned over. Because there's just it's like it's like a washing machine isn't it that's a spin cycle And if you have the right connections and you're rich enough you get in at the beginning and then you get out in time And the rest is desperate to try and by the work and usually by too late and they get lumbered with this. And it's and this. This whole cycle whole this whole dynamic is very concerned for the market. As a whole I think with calls it's just bonkers and you had a really interesting piece that you actually usually root for for the art newspaper recently which is about kind of like populace Martin tasted are How how is that? Maybe shifted over the past few few years and how is that affecting the market his younger artists. Just wondering to what extent. S- those two wills into into sex. I think banks in Kohl's very very so separate markets from the super Super Hot markets will young anointed artists from fashionable galleries. I think not slightly different I wonder how long the calls things can go on for. I'm not sure sculptures particularly interesting. There was a big painting sculpture From edition of Ten plus two is estimated mated at three hundred made eight hundred thirty six thousand That the sculptured the paintings I sort of understand and but the sculpture. I just find completely anonymous and mad. Why is that well this thing and then his time you're going to be looking at the? This is losing me a Lotta money speaking city in the cool room make you look fool. I think Speaking of cause and banks You know we're obviously coming to the end of twenty nine thousand nine here moving into a new decade. Their markets have been the most astronomical made in the last decade. Are there some other artists that you know have had a miraculous rise or miraculous fall in some ways over the past decade or any larger your trends. That you've been noticing since you know. Obviously we were in a very different financial place. Sure back in two thousand nine right after the financial crash and now we're kind kind of staring down the barrel of possible. Recession trade war is brexit. The whole Shebang wonder if you're seeing any kind of trends that you can spot okay in the last ten years of the first thing to say though of course is the that there's no The people aren't losing any money right. Yeah the guessing guessing richer and richer and richer The that the context for all this is is Thomas Spaghetti wrote the script book called capital for century and antique came up with this one fulfilled relation which is aw is always greater than Jesus returns on capital are always greater than growth which is linked to contagious so the rich get richer and richer and richer so the money is all they just they just get distracted sometimes and they're a bit distracted moments and that's that's that's the the only problem no way but what is it from. The market is blue chip off and finding new blue chip artists because house Very interesting came back to this. Aunt net report on staggered to see that in the first half of two thousand nineteen coils made mort Olshan as you'll Michel Basquiat which is a bit of a moment. Now oversleep owners of of a Big Ticket buskers. Don't want to put them on the market and they're they're concerned okay. Let's understood but with with basketball top. Ask as not coming on the market. Warhol's Kuhn's the traditional blue chip where the auction houses GonNa make the numbers. So what I have noticed is the way. They're trying in to pump up secondary names as blue chip and in London in October album. Oland suddenly be was meant to be a great artist. uh-huh so we had to deal shows. We had Serpentine Gallery Exhibition which was sponsored by subsidies and Gagosian and there was a load of Alba Roland sales. which did all right? It didn't actually have a transformative effect. I think Edry Shea last night was another example of this Now he's interesting artist in academically and in terms of art history. That's in terms of Papa. You know he doesn't have the directs. The visual impact of Warhol Lichtenstein or Allen Jones Frogman. Say but what I thought was interesting was that they gave gave that painting. Take Pride of place where the Kuhn's Bundy had been in this shrine to blue chip timeless. Ause I thought they were really pushing the envelope there but on the other hand it made fifty two million now. Is that a reflection of well. Find the histories catching up with Trichet. All this just a hell of a lot of money in California. It's probably a mixture of the two but I think the trend next decade will be. The auction house is desperately trying to find blue chip names to replace Bacon Rick to all the others and I think they're struggling because we're not living living in a great period of I would say you can see it's videos from the New York auctions and all ladies reporting from the salesrooms at the art newspaper Dot Com or on our APP for IOS which you can find at the APP store on the website you can funding subscription to see you so that you can read reporting across multiple platforms and while you can also subscribe for free to our daily newsletter for all the latest stories take the newsletter linked at the top right of our homepage and each academy monthly newsletter called market I with comment and analysis every month for market experts in London and New York. They've forget forget. Subscribe to the podcast if you haven't already and if you've enjoyed it please rate or review it on apple podcasts. You can also follow us on twitter at Tan audio and we're on facebook and instagram. Of course the art newspaper cast is produced by Judy housekeeper. Amy Dawson and David Clack and David User does the editing thanks to Louisa an answer on to Maggie and Scots. What's thank you for listening? Join US next week where we'll be looking at DORMA and John Howarth. CNN The newspaper cost to you and associated with bonhams auctioneers since seventeen ninety three to find out more visit dot com.

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