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"ward mccarthy" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:33 min | 1 year ago

"ward mccarthy" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now both Sweeney and Matt Miller. All right, great, Jared. Good stuff. We appreciate it. You know Matt was just calling out here and I end screen the Bloomberg index browser, Bloomberg, U.S. corporate, total return value year to date. -14.6%. Treasuries too, -14.8. I mean, what's going on? And that does in total return. So not that it would have mattered because the coupons are so low, man. Yes. But it's harsh. And look, my mom and dad just retired. This month and I feel for them. I guess I'm going to have to step up. Sure. Is there broke now? You know? All right, Liz McCormick, global fixed income on foreign exchange reporter joins us live here in a Bloomberg, you know, I have to broker studio. So Liz, again, these are numbers. These are performance numbers. Your Friends in a fixed income market have ever seen? Never seen? Yeah, I mean, some of the data how you splice and dice it is like at least the worst first half and kind of modern times call it. I was mentioning to Matt that Deutsche Bank had some great data back to the 1700s, like how bad it was. I mean, people just aren't, most people aren't used to this kind of beating up in bonds. I mean, do people in fixed income today? They try to call the bottom like we hear equity. Investors try to call the Bacchus. Yeah, and this is where I feel like I see the same dichotomy going on as you guys are talking all about and stocks, you know, is this like a bear rally? Is it over? Same thing in bonds. People saying, oh, we've seen the peak and yields, you know, all the fed pricing for hikes is in there, the worst is over. And then other people saying, um, wait a minute, you know? Like 3.5 on the ten year was the highest we've seen, but like, listen, you know, I've been around for a while like the folks at Bridgewater have said to me a few times. We think rates go a lot higher, ten year could go to 4% or more. You know, fed is just got a lot more tightening to do. So there is these battles, I think, in both asset classes, you know? We'll see who wins in the end, right? Maybe next year sometime. I met a guy over the weekend, 83 years old, fascinating guy, and he watches and listens to us every day. He trades bonds every night. So at the end of the day, he'll make a trade, put on a position and then the next day. No one, nobody does that, right? Nobody does that. My father, who I've been doing this for so long, still says to me, can you explain to me again? What a bond is, you know what I mean? All the bond traders, I know all the guys I know who worked in firms on the street have long since retired or quit. Right, exactly. I remember my old boss ward McCarthy saying, years back when there was yield saying, I bought, you know, zero coupons, ages ago, and that put my kids through college. You know, like what used to be such great rates and those are just gone. Well, actually, Scott miner did say he's buying the strips, right? 20 years. Which is kind of jargony, but I guess when you strip out the coupon, you can trade the maturities, and then you can also trade each due date of the coupon. It's like a bullet, you know? It's just like a single coupon, in a sense, just what you get at the end. But yeah, they're stripping and I saw that. And we'll see, I mean, if we were in this era that we're never going to get rates too high again, which I'm not sure I buy into yet. People who bought strips or locked in tens at over 3% are going to be pretty happy if in a couple of years the feds fighting in a recession cutting rates again. Is that, by the way, kind of a consensus that the fed is going to raise rates high enough to fight inflation because now they have to. That's they're locked in and not only is it one of their actual mandates. And then we're going to have a recession in 2023 and they're going to have to cut right back down again. Well, I would say the timing of the recession gets nebulous. A lot of people say late 2023, I've heard a few say, maybe there's enough cash in the system corporations are much better. It could be 2024, but I think in general Matt, you're right that it's fast up front loaded quick and then the fed is going to have to eventually not too long be cutting rates again because they're trying to manage in pal said he's gone from, you know, like soft landing soft dish to saying, well, we could have a slow. He's trying, but you raise rates this fast, and I know there's not a lot of floating rate debt out there, but I have a home equity line of credit. And I was like, oh, they raised that rate pretty darn fast. You know what I mean? And not only that. Joel levington wrote a piece about the automakers. Now they're facing a $145 billion wall of debt. And it's not like, you know, they can just hold it. Right. They're constantly rolling over. So now they're going to look at 250, 300 basis points of increased cost. This, by the way, adds to inflation because they've got to pass that along to the customer, but it's tough for companies as well. Yeah, I think everyone, you're going to feel this very quickly. Now the fed said, we're really watching financial conditions, which is kind of nebulous, you know, how tight do they have to get, you know, not just what's the hard rate, the fed funds has to get to, but that's what they're watching. How does this filter through, look at mortgage rates over 6%. You know, they seem like so low for so long. The housing market has an imploded yet, but for once, not that I'm looking to buy, but you see on Zillow finally, price reduction. We didn't see that forever. So I think it's going to be no sale. I know people who wanted to sell and now they can't so they got to rent. Yeah, and you know what rents are crazy, right? Going up in price, the leases up, I've heard so many people complaining, oh, the lounge putting up my rank 25. Rent is too damn high. The rent is too damn high. So if you move, is that another reason to move the Austin Texas or? I don't think pricing is good in Austin Texas. I don't think it is either. You don't get a special rates because it's Texas. So where do you have to go? Columbus, Ohio. It's a great place to live in very affordable. People are just wonderful. And they play football. No accent. It's the only place in the country where there's absolutely no regional accents. They use people from the great state of Ohio often for newscasters. And Matt Miller, case in point. All right, Liz McCormick. Thanks so much for joining us, Liz McCormack. She covers all things global fixed income, foreign exchange reporters. She does it all for Bloomberg news and most important. She is in the Bloomberg director broker studio today, so we appreciate that. Looking at these markets here, just a little bit of red on the screen, not going to oversell here

Bloomberg Liz McCormick Matt fed Matt Miller ward McCarthy Scott miner Sweeney Jared Deutsche Bank Bridgewater Liz Joel levington U.S. pal