18 Burst results for "Walter Heller"

"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:34 min | Last month

"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You know, one of the old normal if you like, and it feels quite a lot like the late sixties early seventies. Not that I personally remember terribly well. But you know fiscal policy to get unemployment down on no no consequences and concerns about the monetary growth that's out there. So you know, then you get a potential of a repeat of the seventies. You get higher above average inflation and you get the tradeoff there in terms of We'll grow first inflation and normal GDP. I love productivity growth as well. So there's a trade off that I don't think Boniol's depend here for long. I mean, I think O'Neil's is probably that the great short out there, and if you get this vaccine, I'm pretty convinced. That's a great way to make money with 30 or 10 years or so even playing. Questions a bit of a bit of a rate hike on the three or four years, fed funds and O'Banion So you know, I think if we're going to get the economic boom next to it, which I think perfectly plausible. And you get the return of monetary inflation. Boniol's 81 are screaming sell Chris really bold call right now, especially when you have the large houses looking at bonds and seeing perhaps they could sell off a little bit. Yields could rise a bit, but not all that much. Which brings me to a question about what you think monetary policy will and should be. In other words, Will the Fed be willing to expand its balance sheet by more Treasuries in order to suppress bond yields going forward in order to prevent that? Even if inflation increases, you know, leading Tio further negative, really yield. Do you think that that is in acceptable proposal or a good kind of stimulus going forward to help the economic recovery? I state What we have is the Fed. It depends on the shape of the growth and it's probably in part depends on the shape of how the vaccine comes in the shape of the pandemic, if you like. So if it's my scenarios that we expect a strong economic growth and a bit of a boom. Feel to it. And I think the Fed will be start starting to back off back away from its stimulus. Maybe 12 18 24 months down the road, but certainly doing that. What? Rather than engaging in, you could control because good look good and healthy And they won't feel the need to do that. And they won't want to sort of from You know, a stoke up furniture market more with more liquid but wrong pandemic continues that sure. I think that that we will get you control Chris. One final question was alludes to a cz you mentioned of the sixties inflation and I'm going to call it Walter Heller. Inflation so identified their Robert Samuelson with his wonderful book on the sixties and inflation So far, the inflation Easter crew has been wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. What's different this time? Good question. I mean, yeah, absolutely. 10 years of wrongful cost that I would say the demographics is what's different. I mean monetary inflation. These two things it means high our money stock. I need money, velocity and the best correlation and drive of money velocity. We find out that it's ready the growth in the working age population in particular that the younger part of that 20 to 40 year old You know, these guys are starting t grow as of this year. The baby boom has dominated 10 years ago. And they would say this then and into a time and then also in the time and are moving in on the more dominant age group in the states, the millennials they're startinto. Household formation started have babies might might set off the cup predictions. I think we're gonna have a baby boom next year. It seems to be the most logical outcome of a locked out on you know that age group is growing. Money velocity should start to accelerate on that should give you the full monetary inflation equation. If you like, along with very high money stone, which is obviously already there. Chris right to catch up. Chris always appreciate your inside. It's great perspective. Comeback so increased seriously. Chris Wallace of Longview Economics, potentially Tom Kane, another baby boom on the horizon worldwide. Well, we will see you and I don't know about that. But it's a really, really contentious theory that we just heard there and it's good that we do that We try to do all the different theories. They're out there linking an economics to finance and investment. John, I'll tell you it has been is Mr Watling mentioned it has been a long 10 years for those worried about forms of money growth, those worried about debt and deficit increase. They just haven't seen yields come along. No, not until I see that this morning again. I don't think the point of demographics. Is it really important Not what one time we got Serious demographics issues across much of Europe, well known in Japan, China, also in the United States is well well. Russell Shorto John is the expert on that is one volume history of New York City, but also his demographic study of Italy leading the way in Europe towards a lesser demographics. That really folds right into nominal GDP. Coming up on this program. I'm pleased to say I can't confirm He's still going to be on this program. Dave Ricks. Lady C will be joining us for tomorrow's is filling. Thank you. Okay. I feel like I'm going to do this every segment, which is the tots, Keep it up. Which you for 15. We advanced 4/10 of 1%. No one's going to understand why we're talking about Rose. Is any of this on October 27th because they're cheaper for dollars. 92 cents, Freebase. What's different entry level Rotate out of cash show that unite all right? Bloomberg? Now, the latest.

Chris Wallace Fed Boniol Russell Shorto John O'Neil Walter Heller Europe Robert Samuelson Bloomberg Rose Dave Ricks New York City Mr Watling United States Tom Kane China Italy Japan
"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:29 min | 3 months ago

"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"On Bloomberg Television. We welcome all of you worldwide. Lisa Abramowitz and Tom King John Farrow is off of off Lisa your thoughts on the bond market reaction off the Powell speech long dated bonds, 30 year yields rising to the highest and shooting. The question here is whether the Fed will be able to reach Its goal of an average 2% long term inflation rate. The idea it could go above that, and they're going to wait for a long time before raising rates in days of old of Bloomberg on the economy. This would be a one hour conversation will compress that in now with William Dudley for years at Goldman Sachs and given great credit for inventing modern Goldman Sachs economics. And then at the New York Fed Bill Dudley out of Berkeley has been one of our greatest students of our theory of monetary policy. Bill Dudley, What did the chairman wrought? Yesterday? We knew this was coming. But the scathing notes I have read from selected economist has startled me. What did he do yesterday? But what he did yesterday was he basically change the inflation objective Federals Irv before the Fed father what's called bygones Bones. Every year, they tried to hit 2% They missed for five years. 10 years years. 1000 years next year was always to try to hit 2%. Mom was doing that is if you keep missing on one side, placing expectations become an anchor, and that was troubling. The Fed. The Fed hasn't had trouble hitting 2% objective and inflation for many years. So basically, the Fed has shifted said No, No, We don't want to hit 2%. Every year. We wanted to percent on average. So if we underperformance elation for a bunch of years and we need to have inflation above 2% for a while. In order to keep inflation expectations around to question that's really what that this whole shift is designed to keep inflation expectations while anchored at 2%. Well explained if we combine Angus Madison on demographics and population with Allan Meltzer on the history Of your institution. A simple question has to be asked if we assume our lesser nominal GDP if we assume a more dampened economy. Why don't we just lower the 2% target to 1.9 or 1.8%? Why not do that? The reason why the feds wants to have inflation target of 2%. Not lower is they want to have enough room when you and the economic expansion they have the nominal interest rate high enough, so there's enough room to cut rates to stimulate the economy and get the commune out of recession. I see the inflation tire was zero. Then the you know the pink short term funds rate, but at the end of the cycle might be two or 3%. There wouldn't be much room to cut rates. Therefore, there won't be much boy waited, actually stimulate economic activity. Was Fletcher J. Powell, essentially writing Thie obituary for the Philips curve. This relationship that previously was believed that if you get unemployment lower that will lead to a rise in inflation. I would say it's quite the obituary, but he's basically saying that we're now going to focus on inflation to God when we take monetary policy, not the level of the unemployment rate. So they changed the language. With respect to their our employment goals, rather than deviations around their employment goes, it's now shortfalls. So they're basically saying that we'll push the unemployment rate to whatever level we can As long as inflation is low. We're going to keep going before in this last cycle. We actually saw the feds start to raise rates even before we got to a full employment. So we are getting inflation in certain areas, and we were talking about this earlier in the show. Certainly, asset prices have gotten incredibly inflated and continue to do so on the promise of the federal keep rates low. How concerning is this? At what point does this have to take to make the two Fed take stock and raise rates? Well, I think that they are a little bit uncomfortable with the fact that asset prices are so buoyant. But remember, that was, it's also partly by design. I mean, the Fed basically did what they did in March, April may to try to make a monetary policy easy and financial conditions economy and they succeeded. It was the stock market's going up up up up that will cause some eggs a butt thing. But remember, the stock markets go up stock markets go down the consequences for financial stability historically have been actually been pretty modest. We had the stock market crash in 1987. Lots of economists anticipated there'd be a recession. There was no recession. I think that you know, buoyancy in the stock market is probably less risky to the economy because it's Donald people that hold you use a lot of leverage. Tone own stocks. Bill Dudley Robert Samuelson of The Washington Post wrote a fabulous book a decade ago on the sixties inflation really centering on the theology Walter Heller and well meaning people who were trying to contain budgets in the Vietnam War budgets and and such Steven Stanley of Amer's Pierpont wrote a wonderful essay over the weekend and he hearkens back. To the volatilities that could be assumed here through what are called stop. Go policies, the idea of a fed that has to adapt. Suddenly we move away from the Greenspan Ah, Careful. Is sex. A sequential policy back towards the Walter Heller Stop, go Policies of the sixties and seventies. Is that a risk? I wouldn't put it quite that way in terms of stop global. What? What the Fed is basically saying is we're gonna wait until inflation actually gets 2% before we tighten..

Fed Bill Dudley Goldman Sachs William Dudley Fletcher J. Powell Bloomberg Television Lisa Abramowitz Walter Heller New York Bill Dudley Robert Samuelson bygones Bones Berkeley chairman Mom Irv Tom King John Farrow
"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:50 min | 3 months ago

"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Not asking the head to do too much. If it's one goal was basically not achieved in the last cycle, 2% inflation Is it really a good idea to be lobbing on additional mandates? Defending not only fools for and I think the answer to that is no, We need to be very careful, right if we're asking, you know, if if we as a society are saying, right, we have a pressing need to address climate change or disparities between groups. That's going to be a policy that physical, you know that that elected officials with a fiscal policy apparatus. They're goingto have todo address monetary policy. I think you know we're trying to do too much had a mandate after mandate after mandate all the little growth and inflation even let me cut in and darn it just goes on like that. Michael and I were just fired up. Forthis is like Bloomberg on the economy reduction. As well. Paul, sweetie and time. Michael Darda. We're thrilled. Michael Dorn is with us with the Dow Up 114 points. Okay, I have one more G question. And then Sweeney is going to get control of the program. My dart. The Dallas Fed had that symposium for John B. Taylor of Stanford. I'm going to get eight years ago. And it was the rules. Baia Lipsky spoke Everybody Wade in here on rules. The drone. Powell State a new form of rule today. He did, But like I said in the opening, you know his phraseology was a flexible form of average inflation targeting so an inflexible approach would be to shift to a no explicit new miracle target or something like a price level. Target target. Where the Fed was you explicitly committed to make up. Do you know a precise magnitude of undershoot or to reverse and overshoot? And that's not what happened today with the power of speech. All right, Mike, So from a practical perspective, What do you expect to change for the Fed as over the next several quarters, if anything, in terms of how they're viewing the rate structure and the economy Great question, So I think one change is going to be less confidence in these Phillips curve relationships right? We discussed the Fed tightening policy when the labor market got quite tight in the last Few years of the pre previous expansion, and they did that Because these Phillips curve models were more or less saying OK, labor markets tightening, and so there's less capacity out there less you know, less room to run, and so that'll put upward pressure on inflation. It was not anticipated that we would get to 50 year low is in the unemployment rate, with inflation still below the feds target. When I read the policy speech, that's what comes through loud and clear that there is going to be less focus on you know on the tight labor market necessary, necessarily generating, you know, ah lot of pressure, inflation or even meaningful pressure on inflation. Michael another variable chairman, Paul answering questions now. Is they do with the defendant? That's fine. One of the headline questions goes to the heart of the matter is a Walter Heller moment. Any inflation overshoot will be moderate comma, not permanent. Says Who? Michael Gardner? Yeah, that's true. I mean, listen, you know, we could end up fighting the last war here in by trying to make up for lost ground on inflation. It could be that there's an overheating and a rise in inflation down the road, not a near term risk, but down the road. You know, that's more than Fed officials are bargaining for or anticipating. And so that you know that is a risk. It's not a near term risk, but it's a good point that you So, Michael, What do you think is the most? I mean, we've been talking about 2% inflation, but it's been a very long time before since this economy had to deal with that type of inflation level. What do you think would get us to that type of level over some appreciable period of time. And fourth on before, which would be total aggregate demand. So nominal GDP. This is a favorite metric of Tom keen total spending in the economy. It was very moderate in the last cycle, averaging just 4% per annum. So if really growth potentials around to, you're not going to get, you know inflation of much above two and so really, what the Fed would need to do here would be to set a path for aggregate demand. Nominal GDP, Tio Teo to move up in a way to running away relative to growth potential That would get inflation to 2%. Now we're you know, we're a depressed economy because we just got hit with his shock, so aggregate demand is gonna have to run much faster than the growth rate of potential. For a full recovery to take shape. But once that happens, nominal growth will have to be adequate enough to generate at least 2% in inflation. And with growth potential around two, maybe a little below two. That'll be 4% nominal. Let's go to the reality. Michael Darda one final question. You've been wonderful. How urgent is that? The chairman Powell get a stimulus package. From the White House from the Senate from the house. You know, it's a fascinating question, Tom. I mean, we've been telling clients. Basically you've got three variables to account for here on unanticipated fiscal shock and unanticipated monetary shock, and then the evolution of the pandemic itself out of the three. You know, the news on the pandemic has been getting better over the last few weeks. Obviously, the feds do is, you know, doing what they're doing to help?.

Fed Michael Michael Darda Michael Dorn chairman Tom Michael Gardner Paul Walter Heller Powell State Bloomberg Baia Lipsky Sweeney John B. Taylor Dallas
"walter heller" Discussed on WBBM Newsradio

WBBM Newsradio

01:32 min | 6 months ago

"walter heller" Discussed on WBBM Newsradio

"Gateway foundation here's financial auditor when Walter Heller isn't alone when the market opened triple digits lower was down a hundred and fifty seven quickly came back to a gain of about thirty eight point to topple the three year right now however so the market is struggling but mostly off the lows as I indicated the nasdaq still up I'm sorry it is up about fifteen points make it sixteen now and the S. and P. down about a point and a half today there's so little bit of a rally fueled by optimism over an economic rebound from the pandemic meantime Ford Motor Company is China ventures may sales were higher as the market rebounds there can be an oval corporation plans Uman trials for its potential covered nineteen vaccine in South Korea in June number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped below two million last week for the first time since mid March number two million one hundred and twenty six thousand the prior week this number this morning below that one point eight seven seven million new jobless claims declining since hitting a record six point eight million in late March smokers forecast full year sales to decrease wanted to resign citing weakness in sales to restaurants and schools even as the G. of peanut butter maker beat estimates for fourth quarter sales however the stock is down three point two percent dollars up five nasdaq up sixteen lead Walter newsradio seven eighteen one of five point nine FM strategy whether just ahead WBBM news time nine twenty five.

Gateway foundation auditor Walter Heller Ford Motor Company China ventures South Korea Walter newsradio Uman
Fed, Matthew Zeti And Arthur Burns discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

04:48 min | 1 year ago

Fed, Matthew Zeti And Arthur Burns discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance

"A quiet day to day, but the later on Paul Suinian this, the securities beautifully to our next guest. We have some several many in. The minutes of the fed, which I find ridiculous. And the minutes used to be used to be to try to measure Arthur burns, the what the pipe smoke said out of his pipe. And then it was Greenspan multi syllable. Speeches. And now it's some several many Matthew Zeti joins your Bank right now on the American economy. What fail you miss you do you get out of the minutes? I think the value of the minutes depends on what has happened in between the meeting and today and I think that's a particularly important for about today's minutes. The minutes will typically today should show, the fed was a little bit more optimistic on the growth fund mystic on, on trade, and in global growth. And it clearly that's become stale, given that we've had the flair trade tensions since then I think, more importantly, we'll be looking at is how they talked about the inflation dynamics outlook. Well, let me look into that in moment, but this is really important. The minutes became a joke about some several in many do they still do that to the minute still say some of our districts, several members do they still have absolutely absolutely do. And, and you know, part of job is parsing through how many members and officials are represented by each camping anything on the inflation front, that's going to be an important distinction today. If they feel Matthew, I think from the feds perspective, they feel that inflation is let's call it. Stubbornly low, do you think the fed can even influence inflation? I think that's a key question. And we've certainly seen a number of fed officials and, and academics and others focusing on the fact that the Phillips curve fund, meaning that inflation, does not seem to be as responsive or sensitive to the unemployment rate in growth has been in the past week. We put in a note just recently early this week and it looked at how much of the core PC basket KENDALL said actually affect either through the economic growth or through the dollar. We think about two thirds of the basket. They can't affect that means that there's about a third of the basket that they cannot. And so it does put constraints I think on how much they can they can get inflation. Can I get back to two percent and from this policy framework, debate can even get above two percent if they wanted to so from your perspective, what can lead in a flation higher wage? Just looking at wages, you know three point two percent. That does not seem to be doing it. Yeah. I think wage growth has not been doing it or for a few reasons, one is that productivity growth has risen in line with wage growth. And so you haven't seen these costs push pressures come come through. In addition, these some of these components that, that cannot affect have been been weaker. But I think the fed, if they are looking to push inflation, higher, it's going to, to be through the economy, typing and more importantly to inflation expectations really, really important. How do they force inflation higher? Is there is there a legit published academic study that says a fed pushed inflation higher? I think the whole Phillips curve, framework, which has, has clearly come under question is about the fed being able to push inflation higher. But that's the effectiveness of that has declined because the sensitivity of inflation dislike has declined history. Well, let's go to Walter Heller. He was before you met the sixties did they, quote unquote push inflation higher. Or was it other forces that moved to play should higher? It was a combination if you look back to the sixties, you had an economy that clearly had head over tightened up. They continue to push unemployment rate lower at the same time. You had health care initiatives, that, that let this guy rocketing healthcare inflation. So that was outside their control. But I think most importantly, inflation expectations rose substantially inefficient expectations versus actually because the fed was really trying to get a hot economy at that time they could contain a push mower. And just in time, he had massive fiscal stimulus. So does it looks at that period and said this wasn't uninteresting inflation, expectations and they look forward? Look at that is the key. Way too short. Betsy was we gotta get you in your three hours at some point. He's working with Peter Hooper, just brilliant. Brilliant,

FED Matthew Zeti Arthur Burns Phillips Curve Fund Paul Suinian Walter Heller Greenspan Peter Hooper Kendall Betsy Phillips Two Percent Three Hours
"walter heller" Discussed on KOA 850 AM

KOA 850 AM

09:24 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on KOA 850 AM

"Eighty five eighty five or telephone, Mike. Yes. One one of the thing before Dave. Oh, mice me. You actually already has. But I was going to mention the inverted yield Kurd. Now, this is a technical thing. But an inverted curve is when the yields on on blondes with a short maturity abundance going to mature in six months are higher than the yield on bonds that have a longer maturity that's an abnormal situation. And when that happens when the yield curve flips which is doing right now, it is very often a precursor of a recession to come. And if investors are thinking about the lie. Likelihood of a recession that would enlarge part. Explain why the markets dropping just wanted to update you on Walter Heller. Yes. Yes. He passed away in nineteen eighty-seven. Okay. Quite a while. Yes. He would be one hundred five heavy been living today. I guess that. He was he died in eighty seven hundred seventy four years old. Okay. So he never got one hundred five. No. Well, I'm glad I sold at seventy four then thank you for that. All right. Let's go to Loveland. Chuck, what's on your mind. You're on KOA NewsRadio. Hello, chuck. Yes. Rosen guess her. Don't realize but years and years ago like say the nineteen seventies. The Dow Jones industrials whereas like around nine hundred even less. You're right. Yeah. Yeah. Moved a quarter point in a day one way or the other was a huge day. That's right. And nowadays, if it drops, you know, five six hundred that's still like one percent. Well, let's see. So the Dallas say the Dow's at twenty five hundred and ten percent of that would be two hundred fifty so. Yeah, I don't mean excuse me, pardon me, twenty five thousand ten percent of that would be twenty five hundred. That's that's a correction. And the Dow right now is probably about two thousand points off. It's off its Highland who was twenty six thousand something. So that's a pretty solid correction. But you're right. When the Dow is six hundred if it had dropped three points, it would've lost fifty percent of his value. So one percent right now is is two hundred and forty points and people get all excited and in much of their 4._0._1._K's. Oh god. I got to sell. That's that's right. Should be doing is. They should be up in there. Their withdrawals and buying more. Well, that would be the good thing to do is going to drop another two thousand points, which is not impossible that would be a twenty percent correction, which is a big one. But we've had those before. It's still gonna go up when and if you know that exactly and you can prove it I'll make you and I'll make a lot of money in the long term. You know, like buffet Warren said, you gotta be there for the long term, and you have to pick the right stocks for the long term because sometimes you pick a long-term stock in the company goes broke. Well, I've done that. Yes. I haven't we all. So what are you doing with your portfolio in the wake of the last couple of months? Oh, I cast mine in about seven years ago when I retired. So is all the money and stuff in a mattress. Now. Yep. No, it's not what you would you put it in. It's just is it is it in the Bank getting one point three percent. Something like that. I I got it in some mutual that are, you know, very safe. Yeah. Yeah. And you know, if in a given year there's a three percent inflation rate, which is not unheard of. We're moving in that direction right now. And of course, let's say you're getting three percent interest on your one hundred thousand dollars. That would be three thousand dollars. Well, if the interest rate with the excuse me, if the inflation rate were three percent, you're purchasing power. Just kept you even because you'd need one hundred three thousand dollars to buy what you could buy for one hundred thousand dollars a year earlier. However, you've got to pay income tax on interest income. Yeah. Don't forget that. So any any time inflation starts to shoot up bonds or anything else that's interest-bearing will with in order to be able to sell those bonds to people who are willing to buy them. You have to include inflation premium that is the buyer of that bond is going to make some assumption about what inflation is going to be and the difference between the stated the stated interest rate, and what is worth after inflation that gap is called the inflation premium. And if you're a seller of debt, you've got to add that inflation premium if you wanna sell those bonds, so in your situation at best you're saying even with inflation after taxes at worst, you lose like when I retired I figured I was never going to be rich. So I wouldn't worry about it. Okay. All right. And you're not heavily in debt. Right. No. I that. I do not. Okay. Your your home has no mortgage on it. Right. No, see. That's good. Yeah. Pay the taxes? You know, I still don't own it. You know, they say you own it when you're done paying the mornings, but try not paying your taxes. I a here's you'll see. You're not having any trouble meeting your property tax burden. Are you know? No, I'm not. Well, listen explanation on the market though on the on the Super Bowl ticket. Yeah. That's a good analogy. Isn't it makes sense? It is by the way. There are let's say you're in a just with with one hundred friends, you're in a football pool. And it's one of these elimination pools where there's three or four five thousand dollars in the kitty and over the course of the season. When you your team loses your eliminated from the pool and all of a sudden, it's the the last week of the season. There's five thousand dollars in the pool, and you and one other person are the only ones alive. And you're picking different teams to win the Super Bowl, you're taking team may they're taking team be you can get together with them and say. You want to just split the pot? We'll take two thousand five hundred a piece and not worry about the outcome of the game. Yeah. That's that's that's a hedge you giving up the opportunity and making five thousand but you're getting a guaranteed twenty five hundred instead of getting nothing. And that kind of hedging and arbitrage you can do that kind of thing in markets too. Oh, yeah. You just about all the markets commodities. Whatever. That's right. And you remember Hillary Clinton with Clinton was a genius in this regard because years ago, she made a fortune in the commodities market without knowing even what the commodities market was. But you see somebody was making sure that. It's it's the way of concealing a bribe. Which is exactly what she did presumably. Okay. Oh, be careful. You might be on that list. What list the hit miss that? They've got. No, I'll take my chances. He died. Yes. That's the that's the Meena Arkansas list right now, what it was all about for my memory serves. Okay. Thanks for your phone call. Let's check in with Ben in Bennett. They named the town after you, Ben. That's great. Yeah. Just about. Okay mic. Always appreciate hearing. You just a quick question. I have a fifteen year old son. He has the money invested with XL energy, which seems to be holding fairly stable and just wondering if you would recommend that. He he leave it there, you know, based on his age and whatnot. Or if he tried to spread that out doing something different based based on some very painful. Personal disaster that I've suffered I never give specific recommendations at any particular stock anymore you'd you'd love me if it's a good one. But you'd hate me if it's a bad one. So I can talk in general terms now anytime you're talking about a public utility. That's about as safe as you can get excellent energy. For example, has what's called in economic terms and natural monopoly. Doesn't have a lot of competition. And as a consequence we've got something called the PUC. The public utilities commission that regulates the the finances of XL energy in effect the way it works is they guarantee XL energy a certain return on investment. Let's say ten percent. Consequently when XL energy submits its financials to the PUC and wants a price increase. The public utilities commission has to grant them that price increase or negotiated with them. So that they can be assured of getting their guaranteed return. But don't soak the great payers because of their monopoly. So public utilities are very very safe as investments go much safer than others. Like a preferred stock but a little different category. All right. Thanks your phone calls. Susan Witkin, what kind of good news. Have you got for? Oh, wait till you hear this newscast after calling the president undisciplined in saying he doesn't like to read the president hit back calling the guy..

XL energy Dow PUC Walter Heller Chuck president Mike Dave KOA Hillary Clinton Ben Arkansas Loveland Rosen
"walter heller" Discussed on KOA 850 AM

KOA 850 AM

07:28 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on KOA 850 AM

"One three eighty five eighty five managers taking the day off she'll be back on Monday. So in the last segment, I explained. How stock markets work Walter Heller who was a highly regarded economists years ago, he's probably dead. Now, he was once being interviewed and someone asked him to explain why the stock market did whatever it did then up down. And he said, I'm an economist. I can't explain the stock market. I'm a financial analyst. I'm at a psychoanalyst a lot of this is psychological. And when that goes index is start going down. If you consider that this is one of the longest recovery's we've had after a recession in history. Going on ten years. It's not gonna last forever. And if you're sensing that the trend is down down down if you're sensing a market correction of not just ten percent. Maybe twenty percent market correction is a euphemism. For a sharp drop drop in the market losing say ten or twenty percent of its value. Then you wanna get you wanna get out right now, if you're a fund manager, if you're managing large holdings, if you're dealing with a lot of other people's money, they have what's called program trading. There are algorithms that forecast the future based on history. And rather than having to think about what you're going to devise divest from your portfolio? Computer already knows you just push the button and that program trading trading could create a swarm of sellers in when there are more sellers than than buyers prices go down when there are more buyers and sellers prices go up at any time somebody buys a stock. Somebody else has to sell a stock. It's a two way transaction a lot of variables are at play right now. There's a lot of market volatility. Some of that has to do with presidential volatility. We have a very volatile president one day. He's talking about having agreement with China, avoiding a trade war and the next day. He changes his the changes his position on that markets hate uncertainty, the more uncertainty there is usually negative uncertainty. The more likely prices are going to go down over the last. Decade, we've had artificially low interest rates based on history, especially if you're a senior if you're retired and years ago when you're planning for your retirement, you said, you know, my net worth is a million dollars. And I'm just gonna put it in a government guaranteed certificate of deposit or maybe four different certificates of deposit at two hundred and fifty thousand dollars a piece since that's what the government will ensure up to two hundred fifty thousand dollars per account. And if I can get a five percent rate on my CD's, I'll get five fifty thousand dollars a year in interest and with my social security. I can I can retire on that well with artificially low interest rates for as long as we had them hardly paid to keep money in a savings account or anything else that paid less than one percent interest. And that created unusually high demand for stocks. If you couldn't get any kind of a rate of return on savings or on a bond, then people. Were were shoved toward the stock market and all of that market demand contributed in great part to the huge increase in the market index is by the way, when we talk about the the DJI that's the Dow Jones industrial average. That's the Dow which is down twenty four thousand something now and was off a almost six hundred points today. Do not have any stocks are in that index. The Dow doesn't give you a measure of all of the stocks that are being traded the thousands and thousands of shares of stock for different companies. There are only thirty stocks in the DJ. I a it's a price weighted average of these thirty stocks, and it goes back to the very late eighteen hundreds guy by the name of Charles. Dow was the one who invented this index over the years? Some stocks have been taken out some stocks have been put in to replace them. Also when you look at the the NASDAQ and the s&p. There isn't always a good reason for a daily drop. Although wish you listen to the financial reports there has to be a reason given every single day. Even if the market was steady on a given day, if it's down five hundred or five hundred be a reason giving given sometimes that reason makes sense sometimes it's just a guess on a given day, for example. There might be no news of any significance. No news whatsoever. No wars, no problems with trade. No massive government deficits being announced. Let's say out of two thousand sacks being traded that day and many more stocks are traded than that in total one thousand of them went up because of the specifics of those individual companies and one thousand of them went down. Well, the index would be flat that day, but if you were betting on the ones going up you made money, and if you're a betting on the other ones you lost money with the artificially low interest rates that the Federal Reserve. Has been maintaining for years that pushed more demand for equities for stocks. And now that the fed has been increasing just a little bit a quarter of a percent here. Quarter percent there the discount rate in the federal funds rate, it becomes marginally. More more attractive to get into some fixed rate investment like a bond and marginally less attractive to to buy stocks. And if the fed is planning on raising interest rates for the next two years to get them up to two or three percent, which is closer to where they've been historically. Then there's going to be a lot less demand for stock in the future and anticipating that are one. That's one of the big factors that have been driving the market's down the trade wars is another example, Donald Trump's MIR Curiel behaviors and statements are another. Maybe after the two thousand eighteen midterms the prospect of Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren or some other socialist democrat being elected and the Democrats taking over the Senate along with the house baby that's causing investors to look into their crystal ball and say, you know, socialism is coming. That's great for big government. But it's not very good for stock markets in for businesses, especially if they're gonna increase regulations and do all kinds of other things all of this psychology comes together and produces some kind of outcome in any event. If you think that this latest dive, make stocks, a good bargain, and you're right. So you put a bunch of money in stocks tomorrow or I should say Monday. And then the Dow goes back up fifteen hundred points, and you're going to be happy. It's been often said, and I agree from personal experience, the joy.

Federal Reserve Walter Heller financial analyst Dow Donald Trump China fund manager Bernie Sanders president Elizabeth Warren Senate twenty percent two hundred fifty thousand dol
"walter heller" Discussed on KGO 810

KGO 810

13:42 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on KGO 810

"Larry Kudlow, and Brian Dmitri mixed. Book is Jeff can the Reagan revolution. The secret history of American prosperity. You've heard the president in December of eighteen sixty nine hundred sixty two speaking the whole country New York economic club what she wants. But he knows that congress is in his way all tax bills must begin in the house, and therefore we're going to go to the house Wilbur mills is head of ways and means Brian I'll begin with you the house at this point. After the Kennedy makes his presentation. We'd thrashed through nine hundred and sixty two civil rights was competing for the attention of the president and the country at the time. It was there was Anzeiger everywhere you make the point that the civil rights alleged inflation of fifty seven was not adequate or was Brown v board of education's decision fifty four adequate because the lack of prosperity, man. Those last hired were first fired. Or the people who did not have jobs a long time were left out of the economy. They were never going to join and it made the unions powerful because there were too few jobs. That's what a tax cut will do. But the houses in the way Wilbur mills is head of ways and means does he want the tax cut or are they playing the are they stalling Wilbur mills absolutely wants to tax cut. He was partially responsible for giving candidate the idea of the tax cut news persistent efforts in the nineteen fifties. Especially to get that top rate. Hammered down to about fifty five percent from nine fifty five percent from ninety one. The problem in the house was the rest of the southern delegation mills, of course, was from Arkansas the great part of the southern delegation was worried about unleashing economic growth in this country because if economic growth came like Kennedy said and he said he wanted five percent per year. All of a sudden all the northerners stop discriminating against African Americans in hiring because the southerners saw that in the nineteen fifties. When jobs were scarce whites made sure that they. They reserved in employment for blacks, if there were civil rights in that context. Both whites would have to have their fair share of unemployment. So the southerners knew that if they were big time economic growth, they would be exposed as the only ones who really deeply cared about segregation. And they tried to sucker punch the tax and he held hearings. I believe they begin in February they extend through March where the hearing successful from Kennedy's point of view, Brian. No, they weren't they lasted forever. And they just brought in a parade of lobbyists. The other big problem was that the ninety one percent marginal tax rate made exemptions to the income tax very lucrative. And so all sorts of lobbyists and corporations had put in these little sweetheart deals in the tax code that exempted him from that rate. If that rate was gonna fall substantially, then those sweetheart deals would be devalued. So they all rushed to make all sorts of excuses about why you have to keep the current tax structure in Kennedy. I have to say it was not enough to get this through. He made a big strategic mistake in a state of the union in nineteen sixty three he announced more government. Spending. Just right after he indicated he wanted to cut tax rates if he had just held firm and just said, my only priority is tax rate cuts. He probably would have gotten out of committee, right then and there and early sixty three. Yes. Interesting is. This coalition was created later on as we right not only with Wilbur mills and not only with the head of the chamber of commerce Plumlee Plumlee, very important voice, a Republican. But anyway, he was the Mr. business spokesperson. But also he persuaded George Meany LBJ helped persuade George Meany the head of the AFL CIO, which days is an extremely powerful union. And they were persuaded mania was persuaded by the discussion of economic growth, and I think many was a cold warrior. Also was persuaded that this would help this kind of growth and employment would help raise revenues to fight communism and keep the defense budget, very very strong. So you got these disparate elements that though Kennedy and later Johnson we're able to put together it's really quite remarkable on it. It goes to to my point earlier. You have to work compromises. You have to be willing to sit down and persuade Kennedy had that knack Johnson. By the way, had that knack. I'm not a great fan of Lyndon Johnson regarding it'd be at Phnom more. But I must say nineteen sixty three and nineteen sixty four he was helpful. And again couple of decades later Ronald Reagan who also understood the art of persuasion, did exactly the same thing. He tried to bring everybody on board and give credit to that, John. Reagan was a guy who gave a lot of credit to those people that helped him out that to the idea of giving credit to other politicians in either party is a lost art, regrettably. It is a lost art Larry just a detail here. The president also wanted tariff reduction and he wanted to emphasize business investment by lowering the corporate tax. So it was a mixture. It's not just personal income taxes. It was no one or a strong dollar. It was across the board to make the economy grow. That was the president's vision that he's Earl he's very early and understanding this Larry a very early to my understanding over the last sixty years. Kennedy was the pioneer. That's the irony. I mean Ronald Reagan's been attacked by his critics and those of us who Cathy Reagan torch on supply-side economics king dollar tax cuts. We've all been attacked down to the years for this whole idea of lowering tax rates, you know, taxes for the rich lower taxes for the rich corporations, and all that kind of rhetoric that we hear on the campaign trail is just utter nonsense and even today probably the biggest obstacle to economic growth is are extremely high business tax rates for both large and small businesses. And fact is the best way to raise middle income wages the. The best way to raise wages today is to slash business tax rates wage earners. Get the bulk of the benefits the economy expands. The jobs are created and hence the wages. Go that's Assad now. Kennedy had that thought Wegener had that saw. It's surfacing more. Trump has the same thought here in the election. I'll give Trump credit for that. Whatever one thinks of him in my opinion is analysis of the importance of cutting business taxes is correct. But yes, the bigger point was you can blame everything you want. I'm Brian Dimitrijevic. You can blame it on Larry cudlow. You can blame it all on Arthur Laffer, you can time it all on Jack Kemp, the reality was it was John F Kennedy. Who was the first supply-sider was Kennedy revived the idea that has a long history and economics. It was Kennedy. And Reagan came as I say, he duplicated Kennedy's pioneering work, and for some darn reason. The Democrats will. Not go there and twice in our book. It's an Mark remarkable success that that finds its way through tragedy because the house passes the Bill to seventy one to one fifty five and September of sixty three Rumsfeld and Ford voted nay. All right. And then we're into the tragedy and the change of command and Lyndon Johnson who sets the tax Bill the revenue act of nineteen sixty four as one of his first accomplishments, and he mixes it with civil rights with Vietnam. It's al- suddenly and Brian come to you on this because the tax cut that Lyndon Johnson pushed through was extremely successful immediately. And then he started to reverse himself in the in the same president. Did he understand the tax cut that he helped pass? And if he did why did he suddenly decide to put on a a ten percent surcharge tax on a tax that was already working the country was growing under Johnson. I'm afraid Lyndon. Johnson understands understood very little of it. One of the big problems was that the assassination was did in a macabre fashion provide enormous short-term boost to the tax cut the nation really had to have a legislative memorial to Kennedy, and this is his big Bill right there that he was trying to get past that November. So it was passed but without Kennedy's presence after that time because of the assassination. There was no enforcer of that philosophy in Johnson had not been part of the he'd come of age and congress in the fifties where he thought you stimulated the economy by by spending in manipulating tax rates. Moreover, he kept Kennedy's economic team minus Douglas Dillon who went back to private pursuits in nineteen sixty four. So all the Keynesians on the Kennedy team who had gotten burned by Dylan percolated up in the Kennedy in the Johnson ministration, Arthur oaken, Walter Heller, and they said, oh that was just supposed to be a temporary tax cut. We need an income. Tax surcharge, surcharge, right now that wasn't really long term policy. Johnson got conned by that. And we got the stagflation of the nineteen seventies for that. I mean, this is I I don't think Johnson ever understood it. I totally agree with Brian as we write in the book that he really did that as a memorial to Kennedy was a political move because Johnson was facing reelection and wanted to make sure that the new frontiers men were on his side, but Douglas Dillon last to go elsewhere to be at Phnom war. Intruded basically Johnson relapsed into the idea that higher tax rates would somehow produce higher revenues, even though the reverse was true. And in fact, the economy swamped, the economy slumped and the Johnson also gave up on the dollar, and so the dollar began to slump and then most regrettably, a Republican Richard Nixon completely overturned, the Kennedy growth model of tax cuts and sound dollar Nixon raise taxes, Nixon took the dollar off the gold disciplined, and of course, Nixon went on for wage. Price controls and other things. And unfortunately, neither Gerald Ford. Jimmy Carter sought to go back to the Kennedy model and so the next year. Oh in this story. We right is. In fact, Ronald Reagan, and again, people like Jack Kemp, and Arthur Laffer and Norman trae who I might add was a ways and means staffer under Wilbur mills, Jude waninsky, and many others Bruce Bartlett, lots of good people out Reynolds, they wigs by the Kennedy idea, the Kennedy economic model and Reagan who had no particular history as a tax cutter, indeed, raise taxes, quite a bit as governor of California. Reagan saw through and went with it. He went with it and campaign in virtually the same language at Kennedy. Did it's like the laugh occurred before a laugher wrote the Laffer curve, which shows lower tax rates will produce higher revenues to grow JFK. Adopt. That model and then later on laugher was a Reagan economic advisor and a very important one. And he persuaded that this was the right way to go. And reagan. I was Reagan's budget deputy in those days, and we had a hell of a time persuading everybody that this is about a work. But fortunately, the gipper stayed with it, and it did work that that's the one thing about this. With today's attacks on low cash rates. Okay. Taxing those tax the rich tax risk it works out. And it's like if something works, then why not use it? It's broad-based econometric models. Plaguing. The administration's in Washington. Gotta reserve which produce the wrong outcomes and have been wrong. So many years. Let's look at history. I mean, Brian May disagree. But I think our book is a history book as much or more as it is an economic book go with what works, and in fact before the war in the nineteen twenties. The model worked when they went off that modern the economy crashed then it works again in the sixties and it works again in the eighties and well into the nineties. My plea here is to quit political quibbling attacking and class warfare. We need growth in America. We needed to lift our spirits and make us stronger at home and abroad. Let's go back to history. It teaches us that Democrats and Republicans that JFK and Reagan could produce a model of growth low marginal tax rates and a steady dollar. And by the way, you were right. Jeff K was a free trader. And Reagan was a free trader, and that's a big issue because tariffs are like taxes. John you start raising tariffs, you're raising taxes, and that's bad for the economy. So it's all there. We just reassembled the parts and did the chronology of them. And I just wish people would read the book if for no other reason to see how recovery can be achieved. That's what I'm saying things look bleak, but we can do better to coin a phrase the book is JFK and the Reagan revolution the secret history of American prosperity, Larry Kudlow, and Brian Dmitrov vicar, the authors, and when we come back a note about a man, Jack Kemp who could have been president on the basis of his own genius on taxes. I'm John Batchelor. This is the John Batchelor show..

John F Kennedy Ronald Reagan Lyndon Johnson president Brian Wilbur mills Jack Kemp Kennedy Reagan Larry Kudlow congress Jeff K Democrats Larry Cathy Reagan
"walter heller" Discussed on WMAL 630AM

WMAL 630AM

13:33 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on WMAL 630AM

"Huge difference one zero five point nine FM and AM six thirty. That's what we do w m AL. I'm John Batchelor. This is the John Batchelor show. Larry Kudlow, and Brian Beatrix. Book is Jeff Ken the Reagan revolution the secret history of American prosperity. You have heard the president in December of eighteen sixty nine hundred sixty two speaking of the whole country New York economic club what he wants. But he knows that congress is in his way all tax bills must begin in the house, and therefore we're going to go to the house Wilbur mills is head of ways and means Brian I'll begin with you the house at this point. After the Kennedy makes his presentation. We'd thrashed through a nine hundred sixty two civil rights was competing for the attention of the president and the country at the time. It was there was everywhere you make the point that the civil rights a legislative of fifty seven was not adequate or was Brown v board of education's decision fifty four adequate because the lack of prosperity men those last hired were first fired or the people who did not. Have jobs a long time were left out of the economy. They were never going to join and it made the unions too powerful because there were too few jobs. That's what a tax cut will do. But the houses in the way Wilbur mills is head of ways and means does he want the tax cut or are they playing the are they stalling? Wilbur mills absolutely wants to tax cut. He was partially responsible for giving candidate the idea of the tax cutting his persistent efforts in the nineteen fifties. Especially to get that top rate. Hammered down to about fifty five percent from sixty five percent from ninety one. The problem in the house was the rest of the southern delegation mills, of course, was from Arkansas the great part of the southern delegation was worried about unleashing economic growth in this country because if economic growth came like Kennedy said and he said he wanted five percent per year. All of a sudden all the northerners would stop discriminating against African Americans in hiring because the southerners saw that in the nineteen fifties. When jobs were scarce whites made sure that they reserved in employment for blacks, if there were civil rights in that context of slow growth whites would have to have their fair share of unemployment. So the southerners knew that if they were big time economic growth, they would be exposed as the only ones who really deeply cared about segregation. And they tried to sucker punch the tax and he held hearings. I believe they beginning February the. Extend through March where the hearing successful from Kennedy's point of view, Brian. No, they weren't they lasted forever. And they just brought in a parade of lobbyists. The other big problem was that the ninety one percent marginal tax rate made exemptions to the income tax very lucrative, and so all sorts of lobbyists and corporations and put in these little sweetheart deals in the tax code that exempted from that rate if that rate was gonna fall substantially then those sweetheart deals would be devalued. So they all rush to make all sorts of excuses about why you have to keep the current tax structure and Kennedy I have to say it was not enough to get this through. He made a big strategic mistake in his state of the union in nineteen sixty three he announced more government spending. Just right after he indicated he wanted to cut tax rates if he had just held firm and just said, my only priority is tax rate cuts. He probably would have gotten out of committee, right then and there and early sixty three interesting job is. This coalition was created later on as we right not only with Wilbur mills and not only with the head of the chamber of commerce Plum land Plumlee, very important voice. Sure, it was a Republican. But anyway, he was the Mr. business spokesperson. But also he persuaded George Meany and LBJ helped persuade George mainly the head of the AFL CIO, which knows days is an extremely powerful union. And they were persuaded mania was persuaded by the discussion of economic growth, and I think many who was a cold warrior. Also was persuaded that this would help this kind of growth and full employment would help raise revenues to fight communism and keep the defense budget, very very strong. So you've got these disparate elements that though Kennedy and later Johnson were able to together it's really quite remarkable on it. It goes to my point earlier. You have to work compromises. You have to be willing to sit down and persuade Kennedy had that knack Johnson. By the way, had that knack. I'm not a great fan of Lyndon Johnson regarding the Vietnam war, but I must say in nineteen sixty three and nineteen sixty four. He was extremely helpful. And again couple of decades later Ronald Reagan who also understood the art of persuasion, did exactly the same thing. He tried to bring everybody on board and give credit to John. Reagan was a guy who gave a lot of credit to those people that helped him out that to the idea of giving credit to other politicians in either party is a lost art, regrettably. It is a lost art Larry just a detail here. The president also wanted tariff reduction and he wanted to emphasize business investment by lowering the corporate tax. So it was a mixture. Personal income taxes. It was no one or a strong dollar. It was across the board to make the economy grow. That was the president's vision that he's he's very early and understanding this Larry a very early to my understanding over the last sixty years Houston. Kennedy was the pioneer. That's the irony. I mean Ronald Reagan's been attacked by his critics and those of us who Cathy Reagan torch on supply-side economics king dollar tax cuts. We've all been attacked down to the years for this whole idea of lowering tax rates, you know, taxes for the rich lower taxes for the rich corporations, and all that kind of rhetoric that we hear on the campaign trail is just utter nonsense and even today probably the biggest obstacle to economic growth is are extremely high business tax rates for both large and small businesses. And fact is the best way to raise middle income wages. The best way to raise wages today is to slash business tax rates wage earners. Get the bulk of the benefits the economy expands. The jobs are created and hence the wages. Go up. That's thought now Kennedy had that thought Reagan had that thought it's surfacing more. Trump has the same thought here in the election. I'll give Trump credit for that. Whatever one thinks of him in my opinion is analysis of the importance of cutting business. Axes is correct. But yes, the bigger point was you can blame everything you want. I'm Brian Dimitrijevic. You can blame it on Larry cudlow. You can blame it all on Arthur Laffer, you can time on check out the reality was it was John F Kennedy who was the first supply-sider, and it was Kennedy who revived the idea that has a long history and economics. It was Kennedy. And Reagan came later as I say, he duplicated Kennedy's pioneering work, and for some darn reason that Democrats will. Not go there. And you know, that's one book. It's an Mark remarkable success that that finds its way through tragedy because the house passes the Bill to seventy one to one fifty five in September, sixty three Rumsfeld and Ford voted nay. All right. And then we're into the tragedy and the change of command and Lyndon Johnson who sets the tax Bill the revenue act of nineteen sixty four as one of his first accomplishments, any mixes it with civil rights with Vietnam. It's al- suddenly and Brian come to you on this because the tax cut that Lyndon Johnson pushed through was extremely successful immediately. And then he started to reverse himself in the in the same president. Did he understand the tax cut that he helped pass? And if he did why did he suddenly decide to put on a a ten percent surcharge tax on tax that was already working the country was growing under Johnson. I'm afraid Lyndon. Johnson understand understood very little of it. One of the big problems was that the assassination was it did in a macabre fashion provide an enormous short-term boost to the tax cut the nation really had to have a legislative memorial to Kennedy, and this is his big Bill right there that he was trying to get past that November. So it was passed but without Kennedy's presence after that time because of the assassination. There was no enforcer of that philosophy in Johnson had not been part of the Kennedy inner circle he'd come of age in congress in the fifties. Where he thought you stimulated the economy by by spending in manipulating tax rates. Moreover, he kept Kennedy's economic team minus Douglas Dillon who went back to private pursuits in nineteen sixty four. So all the Keynesians on the Kennedy team who had gotten burned by Dylan percolated up in the candidate in the Johnson ministration, Arthur oaken, Walter Heller, and they said, oh that was just supposed to be temporary tax cut. We need an income. Tax surcharge, surcharge, right now that wasn't really long term policy. Johnson got conned by that. And we got the stagflation of the nineteen seventies for it. I think that I mean, this is I I don't think Johnson ever understood it. I totally agree with Brian as we write in the book that he really did that as a memorial to Kennedy was a political move because Johnson was facing reelection and wanted to make sure that the new frontiers men were on his side, but douglaston left to go. Elsewhere to be at nine war intruded at basically Johnson relapsed into the idea that higher tax rates would somehow produce higher revenues, even though the reverse was true. And in fact, the economy swamped, the economy slumps and the Johnson also gave up on the dollar, and so the dollar began to slump and then most regrettably, a retired looking Richard Nixon completely overturned, the Kennedy growth model of tax cuts and. Sound dollar Nixon raised taxes Nixon took the door off of the gold discipline? And of course, Nixon went on for wage and price controls and other things. And unfortunately, neither Gerald Ford nor Jimmy Carter sought to go back to the Kennedy model and so the next year. Oh in this story. We right is. In fact, Ronald Reagan, and again people I checked camp, and Arthur Laffer and Norman trae who I might add was a ways and means staffer under Wilbur mills. Jude waninsky and many others Bruce Bartlett, lots of good people out Reynolds, they will buy the Kennedy idea the candidate economic model and Reagan who had no particular history as a tax cutter, indeed, raise taxes, quite a bit as governor of California Reagan through and went with it. He went with and campaigned on it in virtually the same language it Kennedy. Ditch it's like the Laffer curve before a laugher wrote the Laffer curve, which shows lower tax rates will produce higher revenue to grow JFK adopted that model and then later on laugher was a Reagan economic advisor and a very important one. And he persuaded the gipper that this was the right way to go and Reagan. Wow, look, I was Reagan's budget deputy in those days, and we had a hell of a time persuading everybody that this is gonna work. But fortunately, the gipper stayed with it, and it did work that that's the. The one thing about this with today's attacks on low tax rates. Okay. Taxing their tax rich tax risk bridge. It works out as like if something works, then why not use it? It's these broad-based econometric models plaguing. The administration's in Washington plaguing the Federal Reserve, which produce the wrong outcomes and have been wrong. So many years. Let's look at history. I mean, Brian May disagree. But I think our book is a history book as much or more as an economic book go with what works, and in fact before the war and the nineteen twenties the motto worked, and when when when they went off that model the economy crashed then it works again in the sixties and it works again in the eighties and well into the nineties. My plea here is to quit political crippling and attacking and class. Warfare. We need growth in America. We need it to lift our spirits and make us stronger at home and abroad. Let's go back to history. It teaches us that Democrats and Republicans the JFK and Reagan could produce a model of growth low marginal tax rates and a steady dollar. And by the way, you were right JFK was a free trader and Reagan was a free-trader, and that's a big issue because tariffs are like taxes. John Scott, raising tariffs, you're raising taxes, and that's bad for the economy. So it's there we just reassembled the parts and did the chronology of them. And I just wish people would read the book if for no.

John F Kennedy Ronald Reagan Lyndon Johnson Brian president Wilbur mills John Batchelor congress Larry Kudlow Arthur Laffer Cathy Reagan Larry JFK New York
"walter heller" Discussed on Talk 650 KSTE

Talk 650 KSTE

08:05 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on Talk 650 KSTE

"Fidelity, brokerage services number NYC SIPC Back to Jim Bohannon. Show Frank, Buckley our guest author of the, Republican Workers Party how the Trump victory, drove everyone crazy and why it was just what we needed as, we get, to, a call her, if you have an actual movement for example if, if rand Paul retired tomorrow I wouldn't have, to look, to art I don't think defined other libertarians who would pick. Up the banner But I'm not sure who who who the Trumpers are frankly to me he's a lot in that regard a lot like Ross Perot without whom the Reform Party died a lot. Like, George Wallace in that his American independent party without Wallace withered and died as well these were one person movements much more than than the ideologically founded movements with with acolytes and other followers tell me. This let's, assume Trump wins reelection in two, thousand twenty and twenty twenty four who. Picks up the Trump banner or does it refer to the previous Does he revert to does it revert to the previous Ted Cruz Marco Rubio type of debate We Got them all lined. Up I, mean we gotta. Vancouver we got Don Jr. who he, got, Jared and then, there's Well that's pretty much that's pretty much where the is in my. Mind too I, mean I guess you could have said Jeff Sessions by virtue of of his early backing of Trump but of course obviously those to, have. Cooled and I'm not sure that sessions has ever? That much more than that. An old, country club Republican. Himself so so who are the the, Trump, Republicans out there Well I'm a great data Jeff Sessions but. You're right I, mean who else is there I don't know accept that maybe somebody will grow into it I mean the thing is we're talking about, a. Very distinctive approach to American politics it's nationalism okay It's it's not the same thing as Pat Buchanan who. Which a. Nationalist But There's a special logic. Nationalism it draws you to the left on economic issues because you're a, nationalist your fellow feelings for your fellow. Americans? Right you don't think they're. Deplorables you don't think that they're not, American, you're you, know, and and you don't distinguish on the basis of, race? Right so you don't want these people, to you, know dying the. Streets remember when Trump talked about health, care he, said I don't wanna just repeal Affordable Care Act. ObamaCare I want repeal and replace it with something, better Yeah so you know so he had that sense of not only, I'm not going to attack the. Entitlement program but I I will have a positive message of social welfare, it's it's part of being an American. If? You're an American you feel. The sense of loyalty non-custodial country but, whether, Americans as, well, that's the key to it all and and that's, exactly? The way in which he was distinguished, from people, like Ted Cruz. Those are the official right-wing although you're, right that, he said that though I don't remember ever seeing. An actual proposal in terms of a replacement but Well he you know I mean. What what he ran, up against was the separation of powers and, Paul Ryan and the fact, that as your previous guests said. It's pretty darn hard to get stuff done right now yeah that is all true but. That fact was standing I, granted he said we should replace ObamaCare with, something better but I don't remember what the Trump version of something better, was Well you, know this was mired in the details of be, behind closed doors so I don't know what that yes. Either, I the details behind. Closed doors are not necessarily. Donald Trump, strong suit we have Mark in Anchorage Alaska to, give us his thoughts tonight good evening Mark yes good evening sir You've mentioned the JFK presidency a couple of. Times and unlike his youngest brother, Edward president Kennedy was not a leftist, ideologue and he had his own economic advisers probably the most prominent of which was John Kenneth Galbraith who urged him not to cut the taxes but here's another lesser-known economic advisor about in the. Name of Walter Heller and Heller, although he, was a solid democrat although by today's in today's political ambience, you'd probably be regarded as more. Of, a conservative, urged president Kennedy to go ahead and cut the taxes, stated that. That is exactly what the country needed in the the situation of. The time, and. Of, course he, was Absolutely right why do the Republicans not site Walter Heller and here's reasoning. More frequently in today's atmosphere My In that. Regard Do we do we not. Do, that. Marcus absolutely, right I mean these. Are great, points I mean JFK tried to run to the right of Richard Nixon back in ninety As he did fairly randomly right of Hubert. Humphrey yeah well you. Know I, mean I'm kind of I'm gonna lose happier audience? But I mean there were these issues like? Missile. Gap. And kamori, to and all that. And then, Bobby Kennedy I mean who was groomed by Joe McCarthy for God's sakes People at, the far right of of the Democratic Party, people forget the, the the ties between Bobby and for that matter Jack and Joe McCarthy. All very true but. That was, then Robert Burlington Vermont joins us good evening Robert Thank you were taking my call, sure well I think if, you This, maybe twenty thirty years The democrat leadership Translate pulling the party further to the left and the left Actually pull the party. Passed the average democrat and Republicans of compromise always drinkable time, it's like moving the middle of roles you move a toll do let me know told the modes Wrote Oh people that make up Trump supporters are the people who are Republicans and the Democrats to the second Democrats they don't take leadership is representing, anymore The what Hey traditionally been, Democrat Bill, good values and so they're now beginning to Was, bashing out there and, and Trump. Is sort of stepping on bullet Sure There's a lot of citizens. Amac that's. True but it still boils down to the question we've been talking about exactly what does this new Republican Workers Party really stand? For Well I tried to get part of an answer I mean first of. All you know the caller is absolutely. Right this was a repudiation of both parties right you know what used to be the Republican party. And and certainly the Democratic Party and so Trump stuck up. The middle so we're coming up. Here and. I will have to rather than giving you a head of steam.

Donald Trump Trump Republican Workers Party Walter Heller Reform Party Democratic Party Republican party George Wallace Ross Perot Edward president Kennedy Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Jim Bohannon Jeff Sessions rand Paul Ted Cruz NYC Pat Buchanan Bobby Kennedy JFK
"walter heller" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

KTAR 92.3FM

08:06 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

"Brokerage services number NYSE SIPC Back to. Jimbohannonshow Frank, Buckley our guest author of the, Republican Workers Party now the Trump victory, drove everyone crazy and why it was just what we needed as we get, to, a call here if you have an. Actual movement for example if, if rand Paul retired tomorrow I wouldn't have, to look, to art I don't think defined other libertarians who would pick. Up the banner But I'm, not sure who who who the Trumpers are frankly to me he's a lot in that regard a lot like Ross Perot without whom the Reform? Party died a lot like George Wallace in that his American independent party, without Wallace withered and died as well these. Were, one person movements much more than than any. Logically founded movements with with acolytes and other followers tell me this let's assume Trump wins reelection in two thousand twenty and. Twenty twenty four who picks up. The Trump, banner or does it refer to, the previous does he revert to does. It revert to the previous Ted Cruz Marco Rubio type of debate Oh Got them all lined. Up I, mean we, got we got Don Jr. who he, got, Jared and then, there's Well you know that that's pretty much that's pretty much where the fans in my mind. Too I mean, I guess you could have said Jeff Sessions by virtue of of these early backing of Trump but of course obviously those to have, cooled. And I'm not sure that sessions has ever that? Much more than that an. Old country, club Republican, himself so so who are the the, Trump, Republicans out there Well I'm a great data Jeff Sessions but you're. Right I mean, who else is there I don't know accept that maybe somebody will grow into it and I mean the thing is we're talking about, a. Very distinctive approach to American politics it's nationalism okay And it's it's not the same thing, as Pat, Buchanan who, internationalised but there's a special logic than nationalism it, draws? You to the left on economic issues, because if, you're a nationalist your. Fellow ceilings for your fellow Americans right, you don't, think they're deplorables you don't think that they're not. American so you're you know and you don't distinguish. On. The basis of. Race right so you don't want these people to you know dying in the streets remember, when Trump talked, about, health care they said I don't wanna just repeal. Affordable Care Act ObamaCare I wanna repeal. And replace it with, something better yeah so you know so he had that, sense of not only. I'm, not going to attack the entitlement, program but you. Know I, I will have a? Positive message of, social welfare. It's it's part of being an. American if you're, an American you feel a sense of loyalty Nakas through the country but. To other. Americans Well that's the key to it all and that's exactly, the way in, which, he was distinguished from people like Ted Cruz is. The official right-wing although you're right that. He said that although, I don't remember ever seeing an actual proposal in terms, of a replacement but Well, you know I mean what what he ran up, against was the separation of powers and Paul Ryan and the the. Fact, that as your previous guests said. It's pretty darn hard to get stuff done right now that is all true but that fact notwithstanding I, granted he said we should replace ObamaCare, with something better but I don't remember what the Trump version of something better, was Well you know this, was mired in the details of being behind the closed, doors so I don't know what that yes either I. The details behind closed. Doors or not necessarily Donald Trump, strong suit we have Mark in Anchorage Alaska to, give us his thoughts tonight the evening Mark yes good evening sir You've mentioned the JFK presidency a couple of times. And unlike his youngest brother Edward, president Kennedy was not a leftist ideologue, and he had his own economic advisers probably the most prominent of which was John Kenneth Galbraith who urged him not to cut the taxes but he had a another lesser-known economic, advisor about in the name of. Walter Heller and Heller although he, was a, solid democrat although by today's in today's political ambience you'd probably be. Regarded as more of a conservative. Urged, president Kennedy to go ahead and cut the taxes and stated that that is. Exactly what the country needed in the the the economic situation of. The time, and? Of, course he, was Absolutely right why do the Republicans not site, Walter Heller and here's reasoning more. Frequently in today's atmosphere my Regarding do we do we not do that Marcus absolutely right I mean these are great points I mean JFK tried. To. Run, to the, right of, Richard Nixon back in nineteen sixty as he, did fairly random Hubert Humphrey yeah well you know I, mean I'm kind of I'm gonna lose. Happier audience but I. Mean there, were these issues like missile gap and that's you and all that this and then Bobby Kennedy I mean it. Was, groomed by Joe McCarthy for God's sakes people at the far right of, the of the Democratic, Party yeah the. Love people forget the the ties, between Bobby and for that, matter. Jack, and. Joe McCarthy all very true but that was then Robert Burlington Vermont joins us good evening? Robert Thank you for taking my call, sure well I think if, you Maybe twenty thirty years The democrat leadership Has entrust Li pulling the party's further to the left. And the left I think he's actually pull. The party pass the average democrat and, Republicans have compromised Are we single time it's like moving. In the middle of the roles you move. A toll teeth do full of oats Oh What is the middle of the? Road I think a lot of people that make up Trump supporters of the people, who are with Republicans and the Democrats They don't take leadership is representing anymore The what Traditionally, Ben democrat Values and so they're now beginning to Mastic out there and and. Trump's. Just sort of stepping on. It sure, there's a lot of citizen that's true but it still boils down to the question we've been talking about exactly what does this new? Republican Workers Party really stand for Well. I tried to get part of an. Answer I mean first of all you know the caller is absolutely right this was a repudiation of. Both parties right you know what used to be the Republican. Party and and certainly the Democratic Party and, so Trump stuck up the middle so we're coming up here and I will have to rather than giving you. A head of steam we'll pause and come.

Donald Trump Party Republican Workers Party Bobby Kennedy Walter Heller Trump Ross Perot rand Paul Democratic Party George Wallace Jeff Sessions Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Joe McCarthy Twenty twenty Jimbohannonshow Frank Richard Nixon Don Jr. president
"walter heller" Discussed on NewsRadio 1020 KDKA

NewsRadio 1020 KDKA

08:12 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on NewsRadio 1020 KDKA

"Fidelity. Brokerage services number NYSE SIPC Jimbohannonshow Frank Buckley our guest author of the Republican Workers Party now, the Trump victory drove everyone crazy and why it was just what, we needed as we get to a call here if you, have an, actual movement for example if if. Rand Paul retired tomorrow I wouldn't have to look to I don't think defined other libertarians who would pick up the banner but I'm not sure who who who. The Trumpers are frankly to me he's a lot in that regard a lot like Ross Perot without whom. The Reform Party, died a lot like George Wallace in that his American independent party without Wallace withered and died as well these were one person movements much more than than the. Ideologically founded movements with with, acolytes and other followers tell me, this let's assume, Trump wins reelection in two thousand twenty and twenty twenty four who picks. Up the Trump Banner or does it. Refer to the. Previous does he revert to does it revert to the previous Ted Cruz Marco Rubio type of debate We got them? All lined up I mean we got we got Don Jr. who got, Jared and then there's Well that's pretty much that's pretty much where the fans in my mind. Too I mean, I guess you could have said Jeff Sessions by virtue of of his early backing of Trump but of course obviously those to have, cooled. And I'm not sure that sessions has ever that? Much more than that an old. Country club, Republican himself, so so who are the the Trump, Republicans out there Well, I'm a great data Jeff Sessions but you're right I mean who else is there I don't know accept that maybe somebody will grow, into. It I mean the thing is we're talking about A very distinctive. Approach to, American politics it's it's nationalism okay It's, it's not the same thing as Pat. Buchanan who international stream but there's a special logic than nationalism it draws you, to the left on economic issues because, if? You're a nationalist your fellow. Feelings for your fellow Americans right you, don't, think they're, deplorables, you don't think that they're not Americans you're you, know? And and you don't distinguish on the basis of race right. So you don't want these people to. Die in, the streets remember what Trump talked about health care they said I don't want to just repeal the. Affordable. Care Act ObamaCare. Repeal and replace it with something better yeah so you know so he had that sense, of not only, I'm, not going to attack the entitlement program but you. Know I I will have a positive. Message of social welfare, it's it's part of being an American if you're an American, you feel the sense of loyalty Nakashima. Country to other. Americans Well that's the key to it all and that's exactly the way in which, he was distinguished, from, people like Ted Cruz those are the official right-wing. Although you're right that he said that. Although I don't remember, ever seeing an actual proposal in terms of a replacement but Well, you know I mean what what he ran up, against was the separation of powers and Paul Ryan and the the. Fact, that as your previous guests said. It's pretty darn hard to get stuff done right now yeah that is all true. But that fact notwithstanding I, granted he said we should replace ObamaCare, with something better but I don't remember what the Trump version of something better, was Well you know this, was mired in the details of being behind the closed, doors so I don't know what that yes either I. The, details behind closed doors. Are not necessarily Donald Trump's Crohn's, suit I'll we have Mark in Anchorage Alaska to, give us his thoughts tonight good evening Mark yes good evening sir You mentioned the JFK presidency. A couple of times and unlike, his youngest brother Edward president Kennedy was, not a leftist ideologue any had those own economic advisers probably the most prominent of which was John Kenneth Galbraith who urged him not to cut the taxes but here's another lesser-known, economic advisor about in the name. Of Walter Heller and Heller although, he was, a solid democrat although by today's in today's political ambience you'd probably. Be regarded as more of a. Conservative urged president, Kennedy to go ahead and cut the taxes and stated that that. Is exactly what the country needed in the the the economic situation of. The time, and. Of, course he, was Absolutely right why do the Republicans not, site Walter Heller and here's reasoning. More frequently in today's atmosphere I four In? That regard Do we do we not do. That. Mar. Markets absolutely, right I mean these. Are great, points I mean JFK tried to run to the right of Richard Nixon back in nineteen sixty as he did fairly randomly right. Of. Uber, Humphry yeah, well you, know I mean I'm kind of I'm gonna lose, half your audience but I mean there were these issues like missile gap and kamori you and. All that this and then Bobby Kennedy who was groomed by Joe McCarthy for God's sakes people at the far right of the of. The, Democratic Party yeah the love people, forget the the the ties between Bobby and, for that matter Jack, and Joe McCarthy. All very true but that was, then Robert Burlington Vermont joins, us good evening Robert Good evening. Thank you for taking my call, sure well I think if, you Maybe twenty thirty years The democrat leadership Has trust me pulling. The party further. Civile leftist throw this, is the left Actually pull the party Pass the average democrat and Republicans have compromised Always single. Time it's like movie the middle of roles, you. Move a toll fee to the left What is the middle of the road People that make up Trump supporters the, people are second Republicans and the Democrats The second of. Emigrants they don't take leadership is representing anymore The what Traditionally democrat Values and so they're now beginning to Massing out. There. And and Trump says sorta. Bullet sure, there's a lot of citizen that's true but it still boils down to the question we've been talking about exactly what does this new? Republican Workers Party really stand for Well I tried to get part. Of an answer I mean first of all the callers absolutely right this was a repudiation of both. Parties right you know what used to be the Republican party and the Democratic Party and so trunks, stuck up. The. Middle so we're coming up. Here and, I will have to rather than giving you a head of steam we'll pause and come back on that thought on the moment Happening now we're hearing now Katie.

Donald Trump Trump Republican Workers Party Democratic Party Walter Heller Reform Party Edward president Kennedy George Wallace Ross Perot Republican party Rand Paul Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Jeff Sessions SIPC Jimbohannonshow Frank Buc Bobby Kennedy Ted Cruz Country club Fidelity. Brokerage JFK
"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:19 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Best And I'm Doug krizner at Bloomberg world headquarters in New. York let's check. This hour's top business stories and the markets commerce secretary Wilbur. Ross signaled dairy is. More pain ahead unless China changes its economic system Ross told FOX business we have to create a situation where it's more. Painful for them to continue their bad practices than it is to reform he said the US will keep turning up the pressure on China. For, as long as, the country refuses. To level the economic playing field now for its part China has repeated it will never surrender to US trade threats international. Dealmaker Johnston's Inskeep who became a fixture at Davos is leaving Blackstone group he. Had been a human rights advocate and an advisor to the Vatican studs Inskeep is sixty two and. He said he's ready for some new challenges after twelve years at Blackstone Disney is said to have tried to buy. Back TV rights to Star Wars movies from AT and t.'s Turner Broadcasting we were told Disney was hoping to offer them on A new streaming video service shares in shake shack. Were down nearly five percent in late US trading that after. The restaurant reported slower foot traffic and an unchanged revenue outlook in. China the PBOC. Weakened its daily reference rate for the you want to the. Lowest level since may. Twenty seventeen right now the off-shore currency is down more than one tenth of one percent against the dollar to six spot. Eighty eight ninety three we check markets every fifteen minutes here on Bloomberg dollar yen one eleven seventy four so the end slightly weaker and. In, the Japanese equity, market the Nikkei. Is head two tenths of one percent in Hong Kong Hang Seng higher by less than one tenth of one percents Shanghai. Composite down one tenth of one percent the kospi in Seoul is better by. One half of one percent and in Sydney ASX two hundred had one tenth of one percent global. News twenty four hours a day on air and a tick tock on Twitter powered by more than twenty seven hundred. Journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries This is Bloomberg Central Bank policy is in focus this week as the b. o. e. b. o. j. in the Federal Reserve all announced policy decisions in the past three days, for more Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Francine lacrosse spoke with. Peterson institute president Adam Posen the Cashcall. On tax reform we got a sixty percents sixty three percent increase in debt issued here into this year by, the federal government and we're doing that, on seven percent less tax. Increases in July are we gonna tipping point where raid surge because of our legislative, process, tipping point Tom but. You're absolutely right the flag this as was the journal at some point you when you take, in less money you should be spending less unless it's, a temporary thing but this tax spending which is what it is at least giveaways on taxes and the spending Bill are just not based on any kind of. Reasonable revenue projection and so we're starting to see the the. The gap wide It's not that Turkey. Chart you talked about but they're talking Turkey on the brains maybe not Turkey Turkey later I want one more question is Adam Posen rubber Samuelson at the Washington Post wrote a fabulous book a few years ago on, her fear fear of Walter Heller inflation of the sixties. Are we going to some terminal rate. That's okay or is there a fear that we go back to a Heller like inflation of the nineteen sixties, the fear is there but it's not, justified in my opinion Tom. I think it was a good book by by Bob Samuelson but it is not, the, rattles and book for. Right now everybody including obviously governor Carney and Bank of England is seeing the inflation goes everywhere, and I think the last thirty years thirty five years, of showed us that it's wages and innovation and trade that are driving inflation not these monetary factors the way people think and as a result I'm not worried. About the inflection point I'd worry a little, more about real Interest rates in. The US we're busy spending so much more than we're taking in the government sounds like banana Republic or at least in emerging market economy Adam tell me about the relationship of any troubled. Economy like Turkey with the International Monetary? Fund with. All the politics with all the uproar over Mr. earn one can the IMF do the right thing? For Turkey if and, when they're called the IMF can do, the, right thing for Turkey Tom and the right thing is defined, as giving them essentially bridge financing with the IMF does in. A program it's, like a bankruptcy restructuring for company with screwy accounting they go in. They figure out what is the actual state of the books and then they give them a loan conditional conditional on them restructuring the. Business and in this, case the business is. Nation's economy the particularly, the fiscal situation in Turkey it's like. Having obsessive volatile CEO you've got addicted toria leader in there to one he appointed his son-in-law finance minister and appointing son-in-law's is always a sign of bad policy and the markets are now reacting the sanctions thing is i think just the trigger the turkish situation it's been waiting the blow up for some months it's july of two thousand eighteen water we over in august now what are we going to be doing in late august of two thousand eighteen is it a redux of twenty years ago now twenty years ago tom because there are a lot of emerging markets that are in much better shape both in physical terms and growth terms and and the idiosyncrasies of turkey are madder because there's less sense of contagion but stanford views on this are always relevant and what you're seeing is the inherent problems that if you just promised too much and lean on the central bank to be easy and you pay no attention to markets do you end up over extending Especially if you're a populous pandering to a nativist, group you also turn on the international world. Comes out starting to cost you in terms of foreign investment coming in and good business some of this you might hear has echoes of what's going on on smaller scale, in the US by the way Adam let me bring you over to this kind of, ties to what you're saying but I want to specifically look at China advocates of course solving these trade issues with dialogue but. They're also saying that the US carrot and stick approach just won't work for China what happens to be from now Depreciates Francine is going to be an orderly depreciation and it's going to be a, slow depreciation as I think you were discussing before I came on you know they. They are not, in, a position where they want to see. Twenty-five percent decline but the economic fundamentals are as we've, seen with Mexico that when the US puts on tariffs Kitson, a trade war with somebody, their currency the opposite, country's, currency tends to go down, nearly one for one with the tariffs in China's case though tapping. The brakes. And both domestic economy so it's probably not going to be. One for one but. It's been a go down that was Peterson institute president Adam Posen speaking with. Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Francine look wa coming up Starbucks CEO,.

US Turkey China Adam Posen Tom Keene Bloomberg Peterson institute Bloomberg world Francine lacrosse Ross president Bloomberg Central Bank IMF Doug krizner Turkey Tom Blackstone Disney York Walter Heller federal government
"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:20 min | 2 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Question is what. Is the eventual pricing and profitability of, this vehicle and. Then also as you're doing this ramp what. Does the quality of of things that that does raise some, risks to quality concerns jobless claims, edged higher last week the story from Bloomberg's Vinny Del Giudice jobless claims totaled two hundred eighteen thousand last week covering close to a five decade low and, consistent, with, a tight labor market the data set the stage for Friday's monthly, employment report, look for. More payroll growth in the Eli figure. Something in the neighborhood of one hundred ninety thousand based. On Wall Street forecasts America's economy added more than one million jobs since the start of the year? Vinny Del Giudice Bloomberg radio after the bell, we heard from CBS sales and profit at the TV network beat analysts estimates a I? G missed the lowest estimate s.. And p. up thirteen a gain of. Five tenths of one percent the Dow down seven little change their NASDAQ up ninety five a gain of one point two percent. I'm Charlie Pellett that's a Bloomberg business, flash Bloomberg best. With June Grasso and Ed Baxter continues Central Bank policy is in focus this week as the b. o. we the b. o. j. in the Federal Reserve all. Announced policy. Decisions in the past three days for more Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Francine lacrosse spoke with Peterson. Institute, president Adam Posen the cash call on tax reform we go, to sixty percent sixty three percent increase in. Debt issued here into this year by the federal. Government and, we're doing that on seven, percent less. Tax increases in. July are we to tipping point where raid surge because of our legislative process Tipping point Tom but you're absolutely right the flag this as was the journal at some point you when you take, in less money you should, be spending less unless it's a temporary thing but this tax. Spending which. Is what it is these giveaways on taxes and spending Bill are just not based on any kind of? Reasonable revenue projection and, so we're starting to see the the, the, gap why it's not that Turkey chart you talked about but, they're talking Turkey on the rates maybe not Turkey Turkey later I want one more question is Adam Posen rivers Samuelson at the Washington Post wrote a fabulous book a few years ago on her fear a, fear of Walter Heller inflation of the sixties and we. Go into some terminal rate that's okay or. Is there a fear here that we go back to a Heller like inflation of the nineteen sixties the fear, is there but it's not justified in, my opinion Tom I think. It was a good book by by Bob Samuelson but it is not The rattle of in book for right now everybody including obviously governor Carney and Bank of, England is seeing the inflation goes everywhere and I think, the last thirty years thirty five years have showed. Us that it's wages and innovation and trade that are driving inflation not these monetary factors the way. People think and as a result I'm not worried about, the inflection point I'd worry a little more about, real interest rates in the US what, we're busy spending so much more than we're taking in at the government it sounds like a banana Republic or at least an emerging market economy Adam tell me about, the relationship of any troubled, economy like Turkey with the International Monetary Fund with all the. Politics with. All the uproar over Mr. earner one can the IMF do the right thing for Turkey if and when? They're called the IMF, can do the right thing Turkey Tom, and, the right thing is defined as giving them essentially bridge financing, what the IMF does A program it's like a bankruptcy restructuring for company with screwy accounting they go in they figure out what is the. Actual state of the books and then they. Give them a loan, conditional conditional on them restructuring the business. And in this case the businesses nation's economy the particularly the fiscal situation in Turkey it's like having obsessive volatile CEO you've got a dictatorial leader. In air to one he appointed his son-in-law finance minister and appointing son-in-law's. Is. Always a sign of bad policy and the markets are now reacting the sanctions thing is I think just the trigger the Turkish situation it's been waiting the blow up for some months it's July of two thousand eighteen what are we over in August now what are we going, to, be doing in late August of two thousand eighteen is a reduction, of twenty years ago Not twenty years ago. Tom because there, are a lot of emerging markets that are in much better, shape both in fiscal terms and growth terms and and the idiots synchronizes of. Turkey are madder because, there's less sense of, contagion but STAN fishers reviews on this. Are always relevant and what you're. Seeing is the inherent problems that if you just promised too much and lean, on the central Bank to be easy and you pay no attention to markets you end up. Overextending especially if you're a populous pandering to a, nativist group you. Also turn on the international world it comes out. Starting to cost you in terms. Of foreign investment coming in and good, business some of this you might hear echoes of what's going on on smaller scale in the US by the way Adam let me bring you over to I mean this kind of ties to, what you're saying but I want to. Specifically look at one China advocates of course solving these trade issues with dialogue but they're also. Saying that the, US carrot and stick approach just won't work for China what happens to women be from now Ready be depreciates Francine it's going to be an orderly depreciation and it's, going to be a slow depreciation as I think you were discussing before I came. On you know, they they are not in a position where. They want to see twenty-five percent decline but the economic, fundamentals are as we've seen with Mexico that when the US, puts on tariffs Kitson a, trade war with somebody their, currency the opposite. Country's currency, tends to go down nearly one for one with the tariffs in. China's case. They'll be tapping the brakes mostly domestic economy so it's. Probably not going to. Be one for one but it's. Been a, go down that was Peterson institute president Adam, Posen speaking with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Francine look walk, coming up, Starbucks.

Adam Posen Turkey Bloomberg Turkey Tom US International Monetary Fund Vinny Del Giudice Bloomberg Tom Keene Francine lacrosse Bob Samuelson Vinny Del Giudice president China Walter Heller America Tom I CBS Peterson institute Federal Reserve
"walter heller" Discussed on WHO NewsRadio 1040 AM

WHO NewsRadio 1040 AM

01:40 min | 3 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on WHO NewsRadio 1040 AM

"The nation was you did in a macabre fashion provide enormous shortterm boost the tax cut the nation really had to have a legislative memorial to kennedy you mrs his big bill right there that he was trying to get past that november so it was passed but without kennedy's presence after that time because of the assassination it there was no enforcer of that philosophy in johnson had not been part of the kennedy inner circle he'd come of age in congress in the fifties where he thought you stimulated the economy by by spending and manipulating tax rates moreover he kept kennedy's economic team minus douglas dillon who went back to private pursuits and nineteen 64 so all the keynesians on the kennedy team who had gotten burned by dylann percolated up in the candidate in the johnson administration arthur okun walter heller and they said oh no that was just supposed to be a temporary tax cut we need an income tax surcharge surcharge right now that wasn't really longterm policy johnson got conned by that and we got the stagflation of the 1970s worth i think that this is key i i don't think jobs ever understood i totally agree with brian uh as we right in the book that he really did that as a memorial to kennedy and it was a political move because johnson was facing reelection and wanted to make sure that the new frontiers men were on his side but douglas still on left to go elsewhere the vietnam war intruded basically johnson relapsed into the idea that higher tax rates would somehow produce higher revenues even though the reverse was true and in fact the economy swamped the economy slumped and the johnson also.

tax rates vietnam war administration congress income tax time shortterm
"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:50 min | 3 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You looking to them or you're looking to to house speaker paul ryan argue you even cast here a little less looking at at the white house as well i'm not so much will you the white house because they're kind of distracted with a bunch of other things and i'm not so much looking at a quote big six the architects of the plan what am looking at a is the republican caucus remember it was the republican caucus that brought down their attempt to repeal the affordable care act and it's not a slam dunk that they're going to have their be able to muster their troops behind them on the tax cut either so that's where i think you wanna look if you're trying to figure out where this is going on all of this and i guess i'm touching back to the '60s because of watching the can burns the vietnam war effort which folks his spectacular feel like try exfilm from eastman kodak you'll love the black and white voters are just breathtaking one they've done in the restoration of another time and place the arch fear of your world jeered bernstein is all know we're going to have the walter heller 60s runaway inflation remember that phrase with inflation now more miles from that era we're we're miles from the arch republicans fear we yeah i i think we are and that's essentially gets back to our where we started our discussion i think you have to be very careful if you're administering monetary policy to not be fighting really old war as an engine actually cherry own was quite articulate about this in the speech he gave last week to the to the nave which people said it was an important speak i found it very important cushy really was scratching her head about the underlying ma and i think saying quite clearly we really have to think the fundamental forces driving inflation so to the extent that you're pulling monetary policy based on memories of runaway '60s and '70s i.

white house kodak bernstein house speaker paul ryan vietnam war walter heller
"walter heller" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

KBNP AM 1410

01:50 min | 3 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

"Are you looking to them or you're looking to task speaker paul ryan argue even casting your eyes a little less looking at at the white house as well i'm not so much looking at the white house because they're kind of distracted with a bunch of other things and i'm not so much looking at the quote big six the architects of the plan what am looking at a is the republican caucus remember it with the republican caucus that brought down there attempt to repeal the affordable care act and it's not a slam dunk that they are going to have their be able to muster their troops behind them on the tax cut either so that's where i think you wanna look if you're trying to figure out where this is going to all of this and i guess touching back to the '60s because of watching the conversions the vietnam war the effort which folks his spectacular feel like try exfilm from eastman kodak you'll love the black and white voters are just breathtaking wanted they've done and the restoration of another time and place the arch fear of your world jeered bernstein is all know we're going to have the walter heller 60s runaway inflation remember that phrase with inflation now now miles from that era were miles from the arch republicans fear wing yeah i i think we are an inch the gets back to our where we started our discussion i think you have to be very careful if you're administering monetary policy to not be fighting really old war as an engineer actually cherry own was quite articulate about this in a speech he gave last week to the to the nave which people said it was an important speech i found a very important cushy really was scratching her head about the underlying model and i think saying quite clearly we really have to think the fundamental forces driving inflation so to the extent that you're polling monetary policy based on memories of runaway '60s and '70s i.

paul ryan white house vietnam war kodak bernstein engineer walter heller
"walter heller" Discussed on KBOI 670AM

KBOI 670AM

02:06 min | 3 years ago

"walter heller" Discussed on KBOI 670AM

"The tax cuts that jfk's saw when he first came became president he had a vision that tax cuts will start american growth again and the doubts were ferocious brian a very good evening to you the the president john f kennedy the new president the young president fortythree years old takes office and he's surrounded by the wise old man all keynesians remembering the new deal telling him you must not cut taxes you must raise taxes that's how we can pay for our government that's how we can pay for the needy in our government jfk didn't believe him how dg refute those overwhelming voices in 1960 one good evening bribe good evening john john f kennedy set up a little bit of a team of rivals his academic that he brought in walter heller at the council of economic advisers paul samuelson it was always by his side at mit they were the keynesians who said who temporary tax credit most but we have to preserve the revenue power of this government or a big social programs he did bring in one skeptic on that score in that was his treasury secretary douglas dillon who said you know what if you wanna keep that gold standard you're going to have to cut tax rates so people still want their staller did i never what's the paroled genesis brian genesee thous one of the key parts of our book because brian it i've been talking for years about the tax cuts and i i my hunch was and i couldn't prove it that doug gone the republican treasury secretary uh very wealthy guy in a row new york socialite and eisenhower undersecretary doug don't the guy that talk kennedy into lorry marginal tax rates but i couldn't prove it so my pal brian dimitrievic who is a fabulous is taurean goes out and growth this really a very important part of this but i want to ask you something i'm reading this new biography of william f buckley junior and it's quite good and it's by 1000 burke who is very good stories good guy but thousand burke who probably way said crockery.

president the new deal john john f kennedy walter heller tax credit douglas dillon tax rates doug treasury secretary new york brian dimitrievic william f buckley junior jfk paul samuelson undersecretary fortythree years