7 Episode results for "Valerie Hopkins"

Hungary offers financial perks to boost birth rate

FT News

14:53 min | 2 years ago

Hungary offers financial perks to boost birth rate

"This financial times podcast is supported by capital. One capital. One is reimagining banking by offering accounts with no fees are minimums that can be opened from anywhere in five minutes. Capital one. What's in your wallet capital? One NA. Hello. From the newsroom if the financial times in London. I'm Suzanne blimps Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban believes he has found a way to ease the country's severe labor shortage while maintaining a tough anti immigration policy. He's offering tax and other incentives to encourage people to have large families. But will it work Casey Martin discusses the Maeve with nail that clay and Valerie Hopkins. Kevin hasn't been. Yes, coach, I'm Bobby. So you've you covered Mr. Auburn speech yesterday when he made these policy announcements what exactly as he promised. Well, in his speech, he laid out a very comprehensive seven point plan that he hopes is going to boost the birth rate. So specifically what made all the biggest headlines was waving all personal income taxes for women who have at least four children, and this is a very small percentage of the Hungarian population. But it should be noted that prime minister orb on his wife do have five children another thing that he proposed was that women who get married under the age of forty can apply for a subsidized loan worth about twenty eight thousand pounds. So a third of the debt will be forgiven. When a second child is born, and then the entire loan would be waived after third child is born they also expanded an existing loan program for families with two or more children to buy homes worth about three thousand pounds. And and even more generous subsidy for family. With at least three children to buy specifically cars with seven seats or more. That's worth about eight thousand euros or two and a half million Hungarian forints, and they also announced a plan that would give something like maternity or paternity leave to grandparents who need to assist with childcare. There are many older workers in the hunger in workforce because there is a labor shortage here, and they also made a promise to make space for twenty one thousand more children in state funded crushes was so this really going on there. I mean, it's difficult for those of us who parents sometimes to imagine wanting that many children clearly taking it seriously. I mean, how serious is the problem of Hungary's fooling population? What's the impact on the economy? Well, Hungary is consistently among the lowest countries in the world in terms of natality rate. I think women have an average of one point four children and hungry population. Now of just under ten million. I think it's also something about the Hungarian national sentiment that they feel that there are small country, and this feeling heightening as the centennial of the treaty of tree and on which saw Hungary lose two thirds of its territory is approaching next year in something that the prime minister sort of regularly hits on, but it has been suffering from a labor shortage with factory workers being squeezed and also very large numbers of Hungarians emigrating the estimates. Now are that between six hundred thousand Hungarians and one million have left the country in the last ten years for better jobs or for different reasons. Some who don't appreciate the political direction the country's taken. And it's important to mention that this is also been having political ramifications. So in December in. An attempt to try to mitigate the labor shortage, the parliament passed a law that's been dumped by opponents as the slave law which allows employers to seek up to four hundred hours annually of overtime, this amounts to about eight hours extra per week, and it caused weeks of street protests, sometimes attended by up to ten thousand people, and it's also affecting Hungary's economic model, which is really focused on German car companies. There was a strike in Audi two weeks ago and the workers demanded an eighteen percent pay increase. They got it. And which is an indication of how overworked people are the right to have one full weekend off per month, which was one of their other key demands. It takes a long time for babies to be old enough to into the workforce. I mean, there's a long time lag here before the results of these policies. Become apparent do. You think Mr Obama has the money to spend on these initiatives? Well, Mr. overnight did not allow. Operate exactly where the funding for this program would come or how much it would cost. I mean, I've seen different estimates already from economists. Some have said it could be between tens of billions of forints other said, it could cost up to five hundred billion forints if every woman of marriageable and child rearing age got married and started to avail herself of these and just for those who can do the swift mental calculations one pound is about three hundred fifty four we should note, though, that there aren't that many women with four children already and many many women who do have a lot of children. Do not reenter the workforce, for instance, anecdotally, I know of a woman who recently gave birth to triplets, and she was entitled to seven years of maternity leave because Hungary has among the most generous maternity policies in Europe. But this is also part and parcel of Mr. Orban's opposition to migration. He's also connected. This need to raise the birth rate in Hungary, too. His opposition to what he dubbed an new internationalism. That's being imposed by pro migration forces in Brussels. This is what he said and he railed yesterday in his speech about mixed population countries saying that if they did allow migration rather than focusing on the Perth, raid Christians would become a minority, and that's not acceptable to him. And this is actually quite popular with the Hungarian electorate is this specifically hung Garin issue in how does the situation that compared to other eastern European countries? Do they face similar problems? Yes, I do think that is being most acutely felt in Hungary, as we saw from the slave lower politically because of the real vehement opposition to Gratien, but across Europe and especially eastern Europe. I think most of the top twenty countries with the lowest birth rates are in eastern Europe. I checked the stats and in two thousand seventeen in Hungary. The average woman was having as I mentioned just. Less than one and a half children. If that's possible, which is the same or similar in Austria Bulgaria Czechia of the new name for the Czech Republic. Germany, Italy, Serbia and Greece, but there are other countries with more dire situations like Romania where between low birth rates. And the fact that estimated fifth of the population emigrated in the last fifteen years, they are seeing severe labor shortages, but there are other countries that have also been trying to deal with this and also connecting it to nationalist populist policies in Poland the lawn Justice party rose to power in two thousand fifteen promising to give families five hundred zlotys about one hundred pounds a month. And this is one third of the minimum wage. So it's very very popular. But it has cost more than one percent of Poland's GDP. I know Serbia as well has instituted a payment for third child hoping to promote population growth, but I've heard. Mixed things about how those funds are actually being distributed and whether or not they've tried to make the conditions for getting the funds a little bit more restrictive. So that families could actually avail themselves at them. So Neil you've been covering this region for many years, I hit my my saying what's causing this widespread phenomenon. Well, it is a problem that is common across the vast majority of European Union countries that you have very low birth rates on the one hand, but you have increasing longevity life expectancy on the other hand, I think all except three European Union countries are in the same position. What does that mean? It means that you don't have necessarily enough people to pay for the cost of the healthcare in the pensions of your aging population. And you can also end up with skills shortages, what's different between western Europe. And central Europe. The former communist bloc countries is most of those countries are seeing outflows of what population they do have the young working age population towards western Europe, where they can earn high wages in many cases. I'm better opportunities on those countries are not attracting in an having attracted in historically immigrants from elsewhere to make up for the labor shortages. So that's why it's such a particular problem in central east near you mentioned a lot of young people leaving to what extent could this situation be resolved by easing up on immigration, and why the strong cultural barriers and some of these places too such a move. Would you gotta remember is most of the centrally sin European countries? Don't have a history of mass migration light western European countries. Like Britain, France, Spain Italy where immigration has been happening for a much longer period of time. Some of. From Fulmer colonies, and it has become more socially accepted over time. Centrally senior opean populations tend to be much more homogeneous. So there is a little bit of popular reluctance suspicion towards the phenomenon of mass immigration, but certain political leaders like Victorio ban in Hungary, like the law and Justice party in Poland all playing on those suspicions and reluctance in a nationalistic nativist kind of a way pointing to what happened in two thousand fifteen when there was the huge influx of refugees from Syria and elsewhere pointing at Islamic terrorism in some west European countries and saying we don't want this. We don't want this in our region. Therefore, we're not going to allow that kind of mass immigration what we're going to do. Instead is persuade our own populations to have more children battery was saying we've had some flavors at these sorts policies from the law and Justice party and. Poland. I mean, what's the evidence that these sorts of financial inducements work, they work in raising the path right now, they're certainly signs that Poland a year or so after it introduced the five hundred plus program. The Valerie mentioned did see an increase in the birth rides. You know, if you provide financial incentives, then people do follow them actually outside the EU, Russia and divided me. Putin has had a system called maternal capital for some years where they similarly make high benefit payments to larger families. So it does help to raise the birth rate. However, you can end up with another problem, which is women dropping out of the workplace because it becomes more financially beneficial for them to stay at home and have more children. And that is also there's some signs of that happening in Poland. So it can be a double-edged thing. You may get the birthright up, but lose people out of the workplace today on of course, babies being born now don't enter the workplace. Until a long time in the future. But of course, it suits, the political needs of these countries to say, we're growing native population. Archie what Poland has been doing is to allow significant immigration but not from the Middle East. It's allowed in more than a million Ukrainians into Poland over the last three or four years to make up for the skill shortage there, and they like to talk about that as well. We doing our bit because we might be taking people from the Middle East, but we're taking people from the Ukraine salary. What happens in the event that went all these children grow up, and they're ready to enter the workforce, actually, but they find a lot of jobs have been automated as this something that's part of the conversation. Yes. Well, I think that Hungary, especially is really waking up to the need to prepare for the future jobs in automation. But you know, right now output from German auto companies, primarily is one third of Hungary's industrial output. And you know, it's clear that these. Jobs will be changing by the time the babies that have not yet been born or young children now come of age. So I think that these investments in boosting demographics also need to come in the form of improving the education system in a healthcare system to look at creating the jobs that don't exist yet, for instance, in Hungary because of the labor shortage. They recently overhauled the vocational training system to decrease the number of hours people spent in the classroom, and some economists worry that this makes people less retrain -able for the future jobs. So I think that Hungary and other countries in the region will need to be assessing their curriculums and making sure that the workers of the future will be more adaptable and ready for automation when it comes fascinating stuff. Tonight's both you very much that was Katie Martin talking to valejo kipnes, south-east Europe. Correspondent and nail Beckley. A former east Europe. Edition. We'll be back with another niece speech and Samora. In the meantime, if you're not ready a subscriber and would like to discover more F T content. Do you take a look at our latest subscription offer at F T dot com. Social. We live in the area of disruption with entire industries in a state of change. Join host Walter Isaacson as he discovers the fascinating stories of some of the world's biggest trailblazers is the federal fence to to launch a rocket on the space. I mean, we're talking two hundred and fifty thousand dollar fine and five years in prison from virtual reality to robotics Formula, one and farming trailblazers from Dell technologies the unexpected stories of digital disruption. Listen now from wherever you get your podcasts. You know, I certified management accountants works so well with robots because we both love bowling, karaoke nights, taco Tuesdays. Actually, it's because you can crunch numbers faster than any human being could which means as like me and set strategy and make decisions faster than we ever could. And that my friend is why we worked together like hand and glove except hand has an office and gloves dozen. Yeah. Well, hand has a CNA and glove doesn't so the CNA certification. You've gotta earn it. Visit CNA, sir. Vacation dot org for details.

Hungary Poland Europe Prime Minister Viktor Orban EU Europe Valerie Hopkins Serbia Casey Martin Bobby Mr. Auburn Kevin London Audi Walter Isaacson Middle East Brussels Mr Obama Austria Bulgaria Czechia
Europe's Balkan dilemma

FT World Weekly

15:35 min | 1 year ago

Europe's Balkan dilemma

"They did. Again is one of the best places in the country for startups. But you don't have to take our word for it take to ruin Kaji pdas, founder of Condor Detroit instead here. I find, it's a lot more collaborative in nature where startups actually working together, and ultimately enabling one another to succeed, and we're a team with three people, but it felt like we were an army big things are happening in business here. Find out why by searching, Michigan fear opportunity. Hello. And welcome to this edition of weld weekly from the financial times. I'm getting Rochman today, we're looking at the Balkans, an area that dominated international attention twenty years ago after the wars in Bosnia and Kossovo. But it slipped from the headlines in recent years. Joining me to discuss the region, and at some certain prospects are the T euro penatta, Ben home, an Fokin correspondent, Valerie Hopkins. Ben the F T this morning described the Balkans as the most volatile region in Europe. Why would he say that? Because historically, it has been a region that has been full tired of by competing power blocks. You know, the ultimate empire the Austro-Hungarian empire the Russian empire and that has left kind of overlapping, national, and ethnic and religious divisions. And we are still living with the legacy of that, and sort of overlaid by an incomplete transition to democracy and the rule of law after communism and. Then probably on top of all of that you have corruption. It's deeply rooted. So Ben before we continue. Let's just define the region. How big is it? And how significant so we're talking about the western Balkans region roughly twenty million people about the population of the Netherlands, but with a really tiny economy, about the size of Slovakia's. And we're talking about Serbia Montenegro Bosnia Herzegovina Albania, north Macedonia, and Kosovo, of course. So it's a pretty small number of people with a pretty small combined GDP. It's not significant, but it's always been a source of instability as we've known for the last century. Valerie, Ben referred to this as a kind of incomplete process and some of the countries in the regions, maybe all of them have hurt. The delta Modeste nation will be joining the EU I'm thinking, particularly of north Macedonian Albanian, but they're finding very hard. Yes. Well, that's true. They've been hoping to join but also the e u has been hoping for them to join I mean for the first time this was articulated in two thousand three in there. I e you some. In Thessaloniki, all of the countries of the western Balkans were promised a credible path to accession we're given unequivocal support from the Member States and one year ago after north miss Adonia and underwent quite comprehensive changes north Macedonia, to its name, and two other reforms and L Bainian committing to a very onerous judicial reform were promised that they would get a green light this year. And as we saw yesterday that decision was punted again, for a couple of months, at least until October and from their point of view, how much of a disastrous. Well, it's quite a big disaster. I mean, enormous Adonia which recently changed its name in order to end a decades long conflict with Greece over their name, which Athens believed implied territorial desire over the Greek region of the same name, the whole public support for the agreement and public support for the government is riding on the guarantees towards progress towards the EU that are written into that. So north Macedonia, has moved forward in terms of its NATO membership. Several countries, I think, have already ratified the NATO accession protocol for them. But, you know, the European Union membership is what the public really wants and at a certain point, it may become untenable for the leaders of the country to stay in power if they can't deliver on what was promised them, and that would be a disaster for them. And for Europe. Yeah. Mean Ben you've been pretty critical of the youth decision. What's the argument for saying the eaves being sources that it had a unique? Novo paternity to put these two countries move firmly on the path of judgement. EU rules values and sort of binding them into the EU orbit, we have to remember that sort of enlargement process. If you just put aside the various problems that we've experienced over the is in the grand sweep of history. It's been a remarkable success for the EU it stabilized the region, it's brought prosperity and it's dissolved the division between eastern western Europe and the argument just to recap for those who don't totally recall took the EU from what fifteen countries to now. Twenty eight to twenty eight. Yeah. And so, in argument is probably the most effective European Union foreign policy, and it has helped put countries on the right path, and stabilize democracy and promote reform and promote the rule of law. But perhaps there are now plenty of people in the EU think we've reached the end of that process and the legacy problems from previous enlargements have come back to haunt the EU. Maybe the enlargement the accession process was not rigorous. Enough. And so now there are plenty of people who are having second thoughts about it. Yeah. And I mean just to play devil's advocate, I suppose if you are European politician, you will say, well, sure the future of these countries matters, but as he was saying Elliott's twenty million people in the, you have the rise of populists across Europe and places like France, the Netherlands, Britain's voted for Brexit. And it doesn't appear that accession to countries like, oh, near is popular. So perhaps that wise, not to do it quite possibly. But I mean, I think the calculation has to be how long can you keep these countries on the path to accession without ever actually giving them accession at the end of the day? And that solvency something that the EU has tried with Turkey and it's backfired arguably spectacularly, although you could also blame premise, Erta one, perhaps originally topper one for the kind of backsliding in democracy, and the sort of drift away from the European mainstream, in Turkey, but I mean that is clearly the calculation it would be good for Europe if. If Albany could be put on the path to membership even if it never actually meets the criteria to join fully, and you mentioned Obama. Valerie back from there. Give us a description of where the country is in terms of its economy, and its politics because when I was growing up out, mania was like the most isolated place. It was North Korea Europe. And the idea that it might even be close to joining the paean union in some ways, seems miraculous. Well, indeed, it is. And it's quite far off. But I think, you know, to build on what Ben said many Member States have grown tired of the process and have learned that they need to impose further and further restrictions. We see that many of the countries that have joined in recent decades still have problems with their judicial systems. So we're talking countries like Romania Bulgaria, yes, Hungary. If I may say, so the conditions and the demands that Brussels and the Member States have made on countries, which are hoping to join have actually become much more onerous Albania, my story that I did while I was in Toronto was about the extremely onerous. Writing process that all judges, and prosecutors are being subjected to which has left. The country's supreme court with only two judges. One of them I think is being vetted this week. So it may have only one judge so far, only one judge survived because the two tional court, I believe, has only one judge, which is actually quite stabilizing, on the political. See now as the parliament has moved to impeach the president for calling early elections. And no one in the court can judge on this. I don't wanna get too deep into their politics. But I would like to say to that Albanian has also accepted to host the first FrontEx mission FrontEx being the US Border police agency because during the two thousand fifteen migrant crisis, the EU sort of realized woke up and remembered that actually all of these countries in the Balkan route are inside of Europe that if you have weak states week, police weakens to, to Sion's at that will have consequences for the security and safety of the rest of the block. So there should be more interest in improving those institutions and the best way to do it all. Of the academic work that's been done in the Balkans shows that the carrot of enlargement, and of a real credible accession path is the best way to inspire reforms, but how is the economy doing? And how connected is opening to the rest of Europe, now compared to those days of isolation. I mean silly, anecdote but, you know, I come across our Bainian in London now buildings around the corner. So to some extent, they seem to have been integrated little bit. Well, absolutely. I mean, quite a significant portion of Albanians left the country in the nineties jobs, better opportunities. And I think it's rare to meet now lenient who doesn't speak at least two or three languages. But now, people are coming back business ties between mania and especially Italy, Switzerland UK are very strong and the economy's growing, I think actually in the Balkans. The economies are growing much faster than the EU average about four five percent. They still have a long way to go to catch up, but there's quite a lot of vitality and what about this issue of organized crime, which is thrown at all the countries in the Balkans. But I think particularly. Albania for those sitting in Brussels or elsewhere, saying, do we really want country in that condition inside the EU, how serious is the problem? Well, it is a serious problem. And it you know, it also goes to show that again you can't separate the Balkans. Even with the Albania or north as Donio, anyone not being inside of the EU criminals will always find a way to engage in their activity. It seems to me in some of my discussions with police dodges prosecutors that sometimes this threat is overblown. For instance, the Dutch parliament, several weeks ago passed a Bill asking their government to withdraw visa-free travel for all Baynes, dude organised crime. And then when you go and inject a Dutch officials, they say actually, this is not necessarily for violent crime. A lot of people are trying to get on both. Maybe they're trying to come to the UK but actually they're not necessarily being arrested for trafficking in drugs, or persons Ben turning to the other country. We were talking about north Macedonia that I suppose, makes the point that this is also still an issue. To some extent, war and peace. I mean they had extremely tense relations with Greece for sometime. Yes. They have done over the dispute over the name after the collapse of the former Yugoslavia. And that, of course, has prevented Macedonia, north Macedonia is now 'cause integration into the Atlantic community, the NATO. So I mean, it really was a huge that Ford when Zorn's Iovan Alexis, it press the Greek premier achieve this deal, and it still highly contentious in Greece. And we have a general election next month in Greece, where you are likely to see the return of a center, right? New democracy led government and new democracy has been very, very critical of the naming deal with north Macedonia. It remains to be seen whether they will actually go as far as to block their entry, but I suspect Athens will be a lot less accommodating in the future than it has been over the last couple of years. And if I recall correctly at the time, there was some evidence, which the Cyprus government acted on the Russian espionage Intel. Emergence agencies trying to stoke up opposition to the north Macedonia settlement does that raise. Also, I suppose a subsidiary issue, but crucial one which affects Europe's judgment, which is that to the extent that this area is not integrated with the rest of the EU becomes the sort of floating space. And there is no evidence that not just the Russians but also the Turks and even the Chinese are taking an interest in the western Balkans. Absolutely. I suspect it's possible to maybe overplay, the extent of Russian influence, although it has been substantial an acute in some places such as the authentic your and Montenegro and this attempt to stoke up resistance to the referendum on the name changed Illinois with Macedonia, which the Greeks are pro Russian country, actually expelled him Russian diplomats accusing the spine. The Turks are obviously increasingly involved in Bosnia to governor, and Albanian in Kosova, and the. Please spot an opportunity to extend their influence through commerce and through infrastructure spending. So, yeah, we're replaying centuries of history where this region has been kind of plaything for the great powers. And of course, I suppose it's easier for Europe to ignore to the extent that these above Ling cute problems, but lots of problems as long as it doesn't actually break out into violence. Now I mentioned at the beginning of the program that the broad or can region. We were at war twenty years ago is there danger of the old conference coming bubbling back. Or is it more that we're talking about serious, but subsidiary issues of people flows economic crises organized crime, and so on, is there danger of real all while I think you'd be foolish to rule out the danger of a return to conflict in this area in the sense that forty years ago, you might have done the same thing but history has shown how quickly this place can erupt into. James, and I suspect that remains although I'm sure it has reduced in the last ten twenty years, and there is more at stake for the region's inhabitants. If they have a clear path to e membership, which will bring guarantees of security, and better economic prospects. And the end of the day, I have the firm feeling that it's often corrupt politicians who have their own economic interests at heart, who are perpetuating the kind of ethnic divisions in this region. More than popular convictions. And Valerie euro correspondent on the ground. So how stable or unstable does it seem to you? Well, I do agree with Ben that seemingly innocuous crisis can escalate. And I think that in most of the countries, you really do have this kind of boiling, the frog situation where I is correspondent struggle with sometimes seemingly small jumps in a story, actually could carry larger consequences later. But I think rather than conflict, the major risk is just that the country will empty out with people losing hope. That they will be able to create a better life for their children and grandchildren. For instance, in Bosnia, which is a population of three and a half million in the last three or four years. I think two hundred thousand people left since January some thirty thousand people have already left the country. And that's when I talked to people, it's really a matter of losing hope that they will join the European Union and have a better life. So these countries will suffer catastrophic demographic decline. And western Europe will find if they didn't integrate them, they'll show up on the doorsteps. Well, many of them, actually are getting jobs in western Europe, which are empty, you know, these are educated workers doctors dentists health worker, social workers, so it's not the same as migrant crisis. Most of them are going legally with work permits, but they're leaving their home countries for good. Okay. We'll, we'll have to leave it. Thank you very much indeed, to buttery Hopkins in the studio and to Ben holes. Well that's it for this week until next week. Goodbye. Be inspired think differently. Discover the real business behind the Disney. Magic attended Disney institute professional development. Course in Florida or California where the Disney parks and resorts become your classroom. Learn methods directly from Disney leaders and explore operational areas to observe real world principles in actions. 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Europe European Union Ben Macedonia Bosnia north Macedonia Greece NATO Albania Valerie Athens Brussels Kosovo Michigan Valerie Hopkins Disney Netherlands Disney institute Serbia Montenegro Bosnia Herze Member States
Thursday 31 October

Monocle 24: The Globalist

58:58 min | 1 year ago

Thursday 31 October

"You're listening to the globalist first broadcast on the thirty first of October two thousand and nineteen uh-huh hello this is the globalist coming to you live from the Dory House in London I mean for US relations with Southeast Asia then Vladimir Houston and Viktor Shen no bill committee has decided off mid all they did the committee made a mistake will examine Ethiopia's sabre-rattling issue but this interestingly is a moment in California that is very of average for this time of year additionally we'll get the business news the APEC and Cop Twenty five because of widespread protests in recent weeks mystical odds a move that's winning praise from Democrats and scorn from Republicans ahead of a highly unpredictable December poll and now to the top the Japan the United States Australia New Zealand and India will meet in Thailand Indo Pacific with one notable absence Donald Trump who this year didn't even the University of Birmingham Good Morning Scott now trump attended is this a deliberate snub well I think it's more about trump's senses economic agencies the State Department still see the is very different however from a donald trump on a personal level while a couple things one is he doesn't awards when everybody says how wonderful he is but we know from his experience say with the fact that he is in deep domestic trouble with the gathering storm over the trump Ukraine affair oh most consequential region for America's future so I wonder how committed trump Ryan trump's not committed to the region there's a lot of dispute over whether the United States should be part of the trans-pacific nations and bilateral relations rather than multilateral means that conflict with China on or even South Korea doesn't really matter as much when Donald trump is thinking moment I just want to discuss the south China Sea for for a second I mean as we know for not expect rcn to resolve sovereignty disputes and that it's not a court so is there relations is that you have a policy which isn't just completely China is projecting its power in the region not just militarily but economically yeah ACN ACN can't resolve that on its own and it won't resolve down symbols on I wonder if there's an argument that it might actually be beneficial to the others the megyn nobody wants from a trade war and let me just say this I mean the the Americans don't trees in the region to clearly separate the trade war and the economic the confrontation across all fronts that you really have an escalation that is extremely for development which has been official to all and they are not they without rebuffing you think the absence of trump is a boon China. Oh I I he assumed the secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross but who's a man in his eighties who's not really known for inexperienced and and I think the Chinese can continue to take comfort in the fact news and that Donald Trump would prefer basically to project American power through twitter. Well the IT makes a difference who you said as you started off this item where they make a difference and then as a more detailed matter it is important the full delegation Securely Youth Authority if they have high ranking backup and let's be honest on issues far the broader problem that will both affect the summit and exists beyond it yeah it's been canceled now how serious is that well again is the cancellation is not helpful in terms of it removes a form where you can't have conflict that we have identified and right now you have got up position of tension let's be honest a very uncertain American policy and you've got the uncertainty because the world may what's on a day to day basis to deal with these issues Scott thank you very much indeed that was Scott five thousand hours of audio every minute of every show with broadcasts since we launched you'll find well-stocked with clothing books trouble accessories fragrances I'm was eighteen resort guides it's all there for you at Monaco Dot Com. What are you waiting for yesterday? Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Auburn and Russian president least after the meeting Oban said Hungary sought to take a step forward every on the line is Valerie Hopkins Southeast European correspondent for the F. T. go why is it to Orban's advantage to cozy up to Putin since early two thousand Sixteen v Bilateral meeting a no e- You are NATO leader has being above his way to Hungary accountable point eight percent of the E. U.'s GDP prominence they are also of course reliant on on energy imports from of course for Mr Orban's he's interested in maintaining good relations as he broken sanctions the day before Mr Putin's visit there was a high profile. US many years now you know he said Hungary lives on this Berlin Moscow. Istanbul Stephen What's in it for Russia driving wedges Mr Putin is fostering this relationship with Hungary he can and etiquette in in Turkey while again Turkeys member of NATO and of course I think that there is very much it's this personal drive from Putin's point of view that be at Nordstrom to in the Norfolk stream in the south to particularly so he can avoid so there is an economic side to it as well but I think really unfortunately back sanctions and so on but the has been a certain amount of interference in both e ways that Hungary is being quite obstructive lately has been in blocking the NATO targets the native russian-speakers in the East but also cleaning language so because of this Hungary has been obstr- constantly obstructing not that that while the grievances may be legitimate there are there are a number of other countries other issues like the International Investment Bank which is the former comic con living that's paying for other innovations and they also the parliament pledged to a lot of the Western allies have been extremely concerned about the fact that the bank could be used agent activity all over Europe Stephen The point that battery makes their about ethnic stopping ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine from speaking in Hungarian it's actually about trying is the official language of the country this is part of the part of the spat with with Russia before the Russian that's what we wanted to be taught in now spin off his these ethnic Hungarians of are being told really it's pro Ukrainian that's all I did language law and how Turks stream that because of course Russia has to pay crane I mean is this bizarre situation certain advantages for for buying Russian gas so if they were able to take way of putting pressure on Ukraine and in that sense or Ben is being used I've been saying recently Valerie finally has that been any kind of final statement from he said that they plan they made great progress in their relations also he spoke repeatedly about the fact that you know Hungary clear that if if Russian gas comes to Hungary only the Ukraine that's not good for his he became a household name in Hungary was when he stood thirty years ago now to turnaround that to the extent that he's now mentioning Russia China India as as one of the countries that should be emulated in tips Mr Organ from Putin Valerie thank you very much indeed that's Valerie Hawkins Asahi dam could serve as a boot heel on the hose which irrigates it Egypt's the globalist in the world of finance today find out how we can help you contact after winning the Nobel Peace Prize for his outreach to Eritrea Ethiopian Prime Minister Abby the Nobel peace laureate and why dom across the River Nile warrants such sabre-rattling four twenty nine teen to Ethiopian prime a fortune in political capital upon its recipient this is especially us in a difficult and unstable environment will discussing we have a downside to life as freshly ennobled Nobel peace laureate which is to accomplish simultaneously such is the conundrum currently contemplated increasingly thinly veiled menaces towards Egypt at issue is a dam Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has been a dream of Ethiopia's since long before eleven is currently scheduled for completion in two thousand and twenty one and would be potentially blue uh of Ethiopia and depends on the Nile for roughly ninety percent of its fresh water dom could serve as a boot heel on the hose which irrigates it Egypt's two El Sisi has sounded content to tread a diplomatic path so far I'm building a dam if there is a need to go to war we could get millions readied so corporation panic is not the proper response just yet however geography enthusiasts will be aware that these antagonists are separated by not inconsequential two one more like Ethiopia's Cairo may be struggling for an ally on this one Dan attempting to arrive at a resolution of the Grand Ethiopian Relations Damn Conundrum everyone else's fault Egypt has suggested inviting fourth party row has RSVP in the affirmative even if no blows are need a framework for negotiating water disputes between countries could be assembled torch full are not dramatic Dan President Sebastian Pinera has announced the cancellation of two major international summits November and would have bought US President Donald Trump and Chinese president she's in pink but facebook twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has announced the platform is banning political and not bought earlier this month facebook. CEO Mark Zuckerberg was grilled on Capitol Hundred Year Old Castle on Japan Southern Island of Okinawa Japanese media up on the twenty twenty Tokyo Olympic torch relay route this is the globalist always large swathes of California or under an extreme red flag warning hydrogenated so yes the past couple of days have been quite intense here in California are there and the extreme winds that have have been felt in California and the south sts and a single digit humidity levels that combination proved to be lethal throughout the morning until it became apparent that the authorities had been able to control the fire about how the public should reacted this because millions of people hundreds of thousands change so the California Governor Gavin Newsom has been addressing below average fire season to date what we're experiencing at the moment face This state has been well resourced the state has fridge it sounds anything but well unfortunately turn on commentary and people were even talking about there were surprised that it hadn't happened yet shoe most visible and urgent crisis that the state is facing the other one that what advice could housing you have trailer parks or cabins to indeed be at fire risk now there's also something here that we need to mention suffering massive power outages across the state now the company they're old infrastructure might short circuit and while in the short term and might prevent a fire preventing blackouts for at least the next ten years and that's a time line that's just shows the decision making effect so heavily the lives of the everyone is trying to figure out the latest for example is that you have two hundred all from California to Arizona are under red flag warnings homes and it can kate fire which has been the state's largest active heap updating legislation to keep making sure people are aware of the importance of individual actions are not enough and more than municipal and federal to step up and acknowledge that they have some responsibility to Colorado so Louis Wound Jerry Tiger I'm still going still news to be read and talked about so I'm still today and rightly so really you know this is the top politician in the country who absolutely promised everyone and rather than is all kind of reflecting on that today we will be talking about a general election optical voting who's going to win so the front page of the Daily Telegraph Brexit party could age Labor's not living brexit so they're going to over the BREXIT party but should the brexit party light in those seats or should they try and fight them that's a split within the brexit party and you go chicken cheating and it has a joining of amount opening the door to trickle cheetahs fats that there's one love relying on the front page which sums it up purchase basically even causing more either and delay cousy now there will right for democracy political adverts should be streamed through twitter moral stance taken by twitter's interesting but there are a couple of caveats AAC at facebook the rival Mark Zuckerberg who says the opposite he says in a democracy how do you stop political parties organizations coming in lying in that political twitter now I wonder how much that's going to impact on Donald Trump and his personal conservatives yeah which is interesting I don't think many it's very difficult to silence probably at his or at least a security chiefs behest this yeah it's interesting there so this may have heard yesterday basically one of the a lot of basically character assassinations of this guy and I wanted to pick corruption on the call but that comment didn't appear in the transcript released it didn't make it into the transcript so those are the two key facts that this other we don't know it officially Ford we should pay attention to that rather than this huge blustering noise and character word that kind of piece together off to its transcripts a piece together off towards about in piece of evidence yeah let's go to Germany now but perhaps by way of Canada because as we know in Bavaria Merkel's possible successor seems to be doing this all so there are pictures on page thirty nine of the Times which are worth looking at he dressed up as homer to look like Gandhian interesting in the article in the Times it just kind of doesn't Ah Aka K. COM crown power who's being favorite lead in Bavaria this Guy Marcus Oda who's quite a character like and and they're talking about this idea slightly unusual but maybe push him forward without controversy UK which seem slightly all very odd I love blowing us a kiss which is something I don't but I just wonder whether we see this picture of him as Gandhi the we bring fresh thinking perspective to all while we know that it takes one of the most accomplished systems and an unrivalled network of global es every week for the latest insights and opinions Romy Bs all around the listening to the globalist or monocle twenty four with me Georgina Godwin and my favorite business analyst for years yes so as expected pretty much everyone expected the Federal Reserve in the states had to cut rates but also how behind the curve the you know the world's most important the same day that we had us GDP figures for the third quarter showing six percent economic growth Ju- member that when he had that massive thing six would you this is something to remember it's all thanks to the American consumer that no matter how indebted they all the figures from business are particularly manufacturing a dire it's really committee statement. Do you like the ultimate you have to like look at this does that mean they're going to raise rates does it mean they're going to keep rates the same or does it mean they get account writes assesses the appropriate path of target range for the Fed funds rate frankly it's all meaningless bankers play all seems quite meaningless if you look at it from the outside but that's the game tweeted this morning this is a a merger not maiden heaven but one maiden hell a merger look the reason why global car industry is in crisis the sort of car-sharing market self driving cars and electrification volkswagon warned that delivery is going to be a lot slower than expected so so the solution amounts closing factories is highly political this is a French and Italian carmaker he's that had it their own way the Agnelli family founded and run run feared the Persian sensitive plant closures poodle in the mix of an industry in he's over in control this is going to get messy as the two sites interesting let's have a look at apple because I find sales he produced prophets of thirteen point seven billion dollars I mean massive part of its revenue and profits and what we know is when upgrading our the things like wearables you know the phones and the watches and at good even if these other businesses grow really quickly it doesn't make up for ten percent full in iphone sales but but but so so if you listen to the show he's very apple at its most dominant after the iphone they seem to think the festive so this is really sad we get GDP figures out for Hong Kong this morning I is chief as well the damage done to the Hong Kong economy from five months of protests shing the hospitality industry if you Francey holiday go and go to Hong Kong because I'm sure the flights and for those living there and I'm not sure how quickly it's going to bounce back given the him and there are many that say they want to retain that I'm not sure how Beijing feels about it Lewis Cooper download the free monocle twenty four today to tune in wherever in the world you happen to around the kitchen table the Monica twenty four allows you to tune in live or download I don air on the world dentist trucking Migrating Eagles were not prepare to have such sky high which bill when it flew off to Iran naked scientists Chris Smith is here with more Chris They arranged their big predators which means they have a big range and they need to eat a lot of food under pressure but these are a one rest species that we don't want to lose so there's a Russian project tracking where it tends to hunt where it tends to breed where spends summers winters and so on L. noninvasive transponders onto them the idea being that you could say equip Aburd with a Che's on this data and these data include things like GPS position the accelerometer the memory in the device what they usually do is retrieve the data without having to disturb with now so you have to go on try very very hard to go and find somewhere which

Donald Trump US Scott Hungary Ryan trump Mr Putin Ethiopia Southeast Asia twitter south China Sea California APEC State Department China University of Birmingham rcn Wilbur Ross Dory House CEO Mark Zuckerberg ACN
Tuesday 31 March

Monocle 24: The Globalist

58:00 min | 1 year ago

Tuesday 31 March

"You're listening to the globalist first broadcast on the thirty first of March. Two Thousand Twenty on monocle twenty four the globalist in association with UBS. Hello this is the globalist coming to you live for Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin on the show ahead. We'll begin in Zurich as editor in chief. Tyler gives us the view from there and then we'll hear how Finland is shutting off the capital city. Halo Monaco's Markle's Hippie. We telling you what kind of problems Finland has been running into after blocking the CRESA hills region from the rest of the country in order to slow the spread of Gobert nineteen. Now we all know that. In Times of economic crisis the smart money goes after the currency of last resort gold. But what happens if the banks run out of gold and is that likely then to Hungary where Victor All batum has one vote to rule by decree? We'll be asking about this worrying development in an already authoritarian regime plus an. I really noticed in terms of BBC. Radio Five Live. Having as many experts on his possible and essentially if becoming assaults of nonstop chat room waved specialist in the field and Dr with everyday people asking maybe out of different questioned could the global pandemic the saving of the British Broadcasting Corporation with a look at the world's media an update on the financial markets. Let's all ahead right here on the globalist live from London. This is the globalist. I'm Georgina guttering here in studio one at Midori House now in a moment. We're going to cross the Zurich where I'll be joined by Monaco's editor in chief Tyler. I look at what else is happening in the news. Japan is urging citizens not to travel to seventy three countries and regions or a third of all countries in the world. Airlines must suggest possible. Compensation in return for government cash assistance and agree to conditions that include. Not Cutting pay or laying off employees the US Treasury Department has announced and New South Wales. The Australian state most severely affected by last summer's wildfires has marked the official close to its worst ever bushfire season which burned more than six percent of the state's land area and killed twenty five people nationally. The death toll for the season was thirty. Three it destroyed some two thousand five hundred homes and a wilderness area. The size of South Korea do stay into monocle twenty four throughout the day for more on these stories and not for a longer. Look at some of the pieces on our radar. It's time to welcome in Tyler to the show titled Good Morning to you. Good Morning Geeta. Thanks for joining us from Zurich Studio. Tally stood from from there in Switzerland looking around a little bit further afield at the Nordic region in particular. Now a little bit later on Marcus Hippie will be the studio telling us about Finland and their reaction to the nineteen. But what are you observing from there? Well I think no matter where you sit Georgina that me organizations as much as of course central governments are looking to their peers to see okay. Who's going to make the first move and I think in a European context right now when we think about for move who is going to ease off lockdowns. I of course has been a lot of attention on Sweden because Sweden is operating a very different model Much of Sweden's still functions normal schools till open Shop still open so that that's been focused because in in one way looks like a bit of a Utopia compared to Where many of us are at the moment? I think then an yesterday would everyone to latch onto late yesterday afternoon. With the announcement by Denmark's prime minister that she was saying that after Easter We will be looking at at the Dane seemed to have been behaving. You've got another two weeks to of course prove yourselves but we're looking at a post. Easter lift of of many of the band's now post Easter could be next September as well so we have to be sort of careful but there is sort of sense of optimism that to someone is going to move I and and hopefully this. The sunshine starts to shine a little bit more. I mean Francaise. European Fez Ministers warned. That how the EU deals with this corona virus outbreak will determine. Its credibility I mean. There's been there's been positive news about Germany cheating patients from France and Italy. There's been a kind of a supposedly unity across the borders. Has I think it's been on a very tactical level but I think also high profile if you look at the German state broadcaster just on that very point now. I don't think people in necessarily in Portugal and Italy are running to look at a website or watched the Taisho every night but nevertheless. I think that you've seen Germany trying to make some. Yeah I think trying to make the most out of of what they're doing. In terms of sending their Medevac planes to pick people up bring them to Cologne bringing them to Berlin and hopefully trying to dampen down where people have been saying. Well you Europe's not working together. I think Germany really at the core. Of course the biggest economy within the US saying hold on a second we are doing our bit And I think the likewise in a smaller as well we've been talking about in Switzerland Basel. Geneva hospitals have also been taking people From from France as well a lot of French military helicopters crossing the border and dropping off severe patients. I mean that's very good news from Europe but if you look a little further afield particularly at the United States. You're basically looking at a as some of the press. They're points out today. One virus two countries. How the how. America's dealing with it very much depends whether you're in a republican or a democratic state Georgian it is. It's just appalling. Viewing and I was about to myself into bed last night and saw that That they were going to be assembly on the White House lawn again and tuned into watch that press. Ah PRESS CONFERENCE. It is the most divisive Horrible spectacle. You can possibly imagine it there. You have a president of course leader of the world's biggest economy from how the world's most powerful country just scolding journalists in the most rude way For asking the most simple questions and then of course you see real division amongst the press corps as well. They houses country going to mend itself at such a critical time. It's it's it's. It's a really astonishing thing to watch one longs for the adult in the room. Now you talked about the biggest economy in the world and so let's have a look at. Let's look at the urgent need for a easy access to money for many businesses always seeing more common sense more grownups in how banks are pitching in to fight this economic downturn though I think may banks and certainly ministries of Finance or departments of finance have been really on the back foot And not just you know over the last week the last two weeks. Lots of great announcements coming out that we're going to do a variety of things that we believe in SME's et Cetera. And now I think we're at the point where there needs to be real action in here. I think this is where we're getting to. And maybe we swing back to Europe Rome. It you have. You know the Italian Prime Minister He. He's saying we a problem in the south it already you know. The wheels are spinning off. A little bit. You see the just the I I would say that. A cracks of of civil unrest organized. Crime going after stores These topics that we were talking about probably ten days ago already that if government is not yet on top of things quickly if they cannot make the man who woman on the street whose shop shuttered Who's enterprise is is the zero revenue coming. What do you do for these people and and I think that that and that's not just a story. We don't just have to look to the streets of Palermo. This can happen anywhere so I still think we were not in that place in the United Kingdom There is again just the I would say. Almost a constant stream. Georgina of people readers of the magazine. Who who talk about their small enterprises in the UK and just say I still don't have access to money. I'm not prepared to put up. You know my my you know in the middle of a crisis that I'm still being asked for crazy levels of security that you would have had in in in any other time in the most normal times in the economy is booming And here you have a complete crisis and people are are being being asked of course a put up ridiculous security so I think we are at the end of the month April one kicks in. Tomorrow it's the start of a new quarter and and I think there's going to be. Unfortunately some very telling signs are going to start to emerge over the next week or so particular. Small enterprise and finally tyler. Switzerland's been under shut down for a couple of weeks now. The initial shock is over. People are getting used to it. What's the mood in Zurich as we go into this new quarter? Well it's a crispy or very crisp sunny morning here. It was a very wintery yesterday saying it was like little almost like dusting of snow coming in this morning. It's gorgeous it's cold. It's going to get nicer. Thirteen people are out on the street. They are going to their offices. We've been in this similar position now again for for two plus weeks. We have another three weeks to run here though. Now this I just made all of our heart sank when the government said this but I do think it was quite clever very early on to say we're locked down for five weeks and and here in many other countries which have much more severe cases. They've been given. They were given dates of the fifth. You know they were given maybe just in the run-up to Easter. It would all be over so I think from a mindset point of view. I think people just no. Let's see what happens on the nineteenth. I think there'll obviously be an announcement before if we're going to mobilize businesses. I'm not sitting here thinking. Wow I'm going to be down at the barber and have the the sharp as beard on the twentieth. I'm not expecting so I think there'll be some type of of phasing but you do see in the papers and certainly government knows that that people are getting a little bit itchy particularly country which is a high infection rate. There haven't been that many deaths in considering we're talking about eight million plus people and then it starts to become this. Little bit of an ethical balance has all of this been worth it for for this many severe cases in this many many deaths and I think that's the place that people are starting to arrive right now and governments direct without tyler. Thank you very much indeed Now we're GONNA him move you out. We in in about twenty minutes. You'RE GONNA come back and have a look at the newspapers for us. Indeed I'll be back with the papers and what's happening in the rest of the world. Thanks to Gina Thank you. That's Monaco's editor in chief Type Rela- you're listening to the globalist a monocle twenty four. Let's continue then with a look at how Finland has been fighting the curve at nine thousand nine outbreak. The most drastic of the measures taken by the government has been cutting off the Greater Helsinki region from the rest of the country. So that travelling in and out from it is only permitted when it's absolutely necessary. Well markle's Marcus Hippie. Who is from? Finland joins me in the studio. Good Morning Markus. Good Morning Georgina. Hockey has Finland done. It's very exceptional times around the world. Obviously in Finland to and to the first exceptional thing the governments due to wars to activate emerged as a power to get a better control of the situation. Now what happened over the last week and do start finish. Governments decided to block off the Aussie my region practically the Greater Helsinki region from the rest of the country because this area was the place where most Nico Ninety in cases were found. And obviously that he's also way hills and gear. That's major transport international transport hub for Finland. So how do you go on and create something that when I was following the news last week I think the Phoenix public didn't think something like this would really happen? Considering that's blocking the region from the rest of the country would be. It would be the first time ever to do something like that. Also quite quite a lot of practical challenges over that considering that you know you do have the definition of Alzheimer's region. But he's only four taxpaying purposes and so forth. It's not naturally a separate entity separate area from the rest of the country so you have dozen of of off road crossings. Obviously you have drains grossing these board. You have flights so finished. Government and officials had to figure out in quite a short time. How do practically and what happened over the weekend. Is that now? You See Police Officers and military conscripts at all the borders interviewing everyone trying to get across that border on a car. You are faced with savings view. If you're trying to fly somewhere in Finland's Yosef as to where the savings if you take a train somewhere I'll have to say that cargo go is going to work as it has before so he's only four passengers and for people trying to cross the border. There are some exceptions when you are allowed to cross the border that is when you can prove that you actually working working on the other side of the Board. Also if you have a child on the other side of the border all if you have relatives who appalling. That's a case when he can also cross that line but it must be causing huge delays. Well there's been reports that if you want to gross at border by car now you have to wait about thirty to forty five minutes this being reports at the same time of of kilometers long queues off cost trying to get through this. I think this may be teething problems. I think I think the Finnish public not everyone has understood the seriousness of the situation. How difficult actually to get across that border. So how has the finished approach to tackling the pandemic worked generally? It's been working rather well. Obviously there's been some practical problems we we've we instating this this board for example over the weekend and right before the weekend they were quite of people trying to guess outside for most. Mauritian because their summer houses though on the other side. They thought that if you want to escape the Democ the best way to do that is to be somewhere far away from other people and people who are leaving the countryside getting these people from the capital region are being slightly irritated because obviously they are worried as well about these new comes a wondering if they're going to bring the virus with them but healthy and is being tackling surprisingly well. I have to say considering that our prime minister has been her position very long. Government is not awfully awfully old yet Sunday. Marine thirty four years old was youngest leader when she took the post and I think Finnish people absolute majority of them think that she's really good job. There is something about the way she talks to the public way. She makes herself sound rational. And Hoshi explains the reasons for her decisions in a very in a very logical way and that is something that absolute majority are saying that. They've been very impressed by how she's been handling this crisis. I'll have to say that. Interestingly enough inland was one of the very first countries in Europe to get this virus there was an individual case in the Finnish. Lapland already a couple of months ago when a Chinese woman a tourist over there in LA blunt brought the virus with her she was beans reset in Finland. And I think I think that's was quite probably a good kind of practice for the fiendish healthcare system as well to have to deal with the virus so now there have been strictly mutations in Finland onto we did get some good news the number of new cases not increasing exponentially anymore. But I think for the future there are definitely some lessons to be learned so if you look at criticism. Salah Marines government has been receiving in recent weeks as being. I think the major sue issue has been what happens at hails even airport which is a major international travel before Finland for weeks and weeks. There was no one there greeting incoming passengers telling them to self quarantine for example. No one was telling them to stay away from other people so we saw thousands and thousands of people going through the case of fails to give on the. No one was looking after them. These people are taking trains. These people were taking buses. And I think that's being the major critical points how that was possible to happen and it seems that there is being. I'm unclear situation when it comes to responsibilities whose responsibility was actually. Who's responsible possibility? It was to make sure that has given. The boss works well and handles situation properly. And I think that is something that the Finnish government and the officials arguing to be thinking about now how to prevent something like that from happening in the future. Obviously nowadays when he goes to Helsinki if you fly from abroad officials are their health officials. Aren't you have to self quarantine and if you don't have a place to go to the either drive you for free to hotel or an AIRBNB apartments? That's extraordinary. I mean we're seeing the same thing here in Britain actually. I was completely stunned by the fact that there is still flights coming in from places like Iran. Which is a hot spot from. Italy from the US. Despite lots of airspace closing those commercial flights are still coming in albeit at a much reduced level and there are reports of people. Coming into major hubs like Heathrow say they just walk in the not being checked in any way I mean. Phoenix has been cutting the flights the number of flights drastically but there are some routes. They consider absolutely critical. And we see flies to say Zurich and London departing from Helsinki. And arriving back from these places. You know some things. We'll just have to work and some people will just have to travel these routes. I have to say that's what Tyler mentioned earlier in today's program how differ Nordic countries are taking a different approach. We've been talking about the RAW. The relaxed approach the Swedish. Government is taking this way. More cases in Sweden and Finland is getting slightly irritated by that. There's now reports of people getting the virus from people who come across the Swedish border to Finland. And now now this discussion of trying to control that border more and may just simply blocking it so we can make sure that we don't get the virus from Sweden Nakas. Thank you very much indeed. That was Marcus Hippie. Now still to come in the program. Is the world running out of gold? What happens then? Plus Hungary's Viktor. Orban grabs even more power more on those stories in a moment. This is the globalist. Do Stay tuned a BS. As a one nine hundred investment analysts over one hundred different countries over nine hundred of the sharpest moins and freshest thing in the world of finance today find out how we can help you contact us at. Ubs DOT COM now on Tuesday Goldman Sachs told its clients to buy the currency of the last resort. It's sage advice and in times of Economic. Taibbi has always been followed. But what happens if there isn't physically enough gold as three of the largest refineries in Switzerland suspended production. That's exactly what happened. Joining me from. Zurich is marked his editor of the market financial publication from end zone said Mark. Thanks so much for for coming on to tell. Us exactly why Switzerland has been running out of gold Yeah Good Morning. The the thing is this a go. You know gold is mined and all kinds of places around the world in Canada Nevada in Peru places in African so on it then has to be refined and Molten into into standard bars that are traded now About seventy percent roughly about seventy percent of all the gold into world is being refined in Switzerland and three three largest refineries are placed in the content of Ticino which borders Italy now that continent been very hard hit Abidi Kovic nineteen pandemic in the past few weeks so the government there has shut down or has ordered all companies that are non essential to shut down And these three refineries were shut down as well so they can't refine gold right now and presumably the demand for it has has increased Yes indeed In places like Switzerland like Germany also the UK Traders are saying that the demand for physical gold from retail investors has risen about a fivefold in the past few weeks. Right and of course. It's not just refining. The gold is guessing it around the world. Yes that's exactly right. Most of the gold is shipped around the world on on passenger airplanes in in the in the cargo compartment of passenger airplanes. Now because most of these flight so many of these flights have been canceled It it's it's actually very hard to get the gold from Places like London To some of the places where where it's been demanded One trader Has said there's you know there's about nine thousand tons of gold available in London but it's all in large bars in these eleven and a half kilogram bars that we knew from that we know from the films Anna copy molten down into smaller units and chipped around the world to where it is being demanded So what are the implications then the international gold market right? Now there's a. There's a bit of a problem in the Gold market between London and New York Between the the spot price of gold in London and the price for gold futures that are traded in in New York There's there's a historically a rather large gap between those prices now. The reason is this You can Gold is traded in London in these large. Four hundred spars But to settle futures contracts in New York you have to deliver the gold in one hundred ounce bars because that's the standard unit of trade in New York so gold has to be shipped between London. The refiners in Switzerland the futures markets in New York where it's where The future contracts are settled and this flow of gold between London. Switzerland and New York is right now. heavily disturbed so. Just explain this to me. Does banking rely on the actual physical stock of gold or more on the idea that it exists? That could be available. I mean people buying gold not physically stocking it under their mattresses. Yes and no banking does not rely on on the flow of physical gold per se. There is a market see the comex futures market in New York where professional traders actually settled in physical gold and this. This is the disturbance in that flow of goal that I mentioned between London Switzerland New York. So there's there's a cup in that professional Gold trading market. What we have seen is Many banks they have to store gold because they have offered their clients. So-called exchange traded funds which are backed by physical gold so Commercial BANKS THEY. They do need Physical gold in their vaults because they have sold contracts to gold to the retail clients. What else I mean for those people who still have some kind of income. What should they be looking to invest in? Now it's obviously very hard to to to give investment advice In such a in a general manner But of course we have seen in the past. Few weeks were huge levels of panic in financial markets. Obviously this pandemic is causing large parts of the world economy to to shut down Yet at the same time. You can't say that this shutdown is for one governments. Want the shutdown right now. Because that's the. That's the entire idea to flatten the pandemic curve. And you can say that you know this is not something that will forever as big as it is. This is still a temporary shock to the world economy and not a a permanent shock. So if you're brave There are good financial assets out there Stocks from from solid companies with good balance sheets. They're Darah worst times to buy then doing but ties of crisis mark. Thanks very much indeed. That's not totally. Here's what else we keeping an eye on today. Japan is urging its citizens not to travel to seventy three countries and regions or third of all countries in the world. The Japanese Foreign Ministry issued new travel warnings today against more than twenty countries mostly in Europe. Airlines must suggest possible compensation in return for government cash assistance and agree to conditions that include. Not Cutting pay or laying off employees the US Treasury Department has announced as it prepares to quickly hand out twenty five billion dollars and New South Wales. The Australian state most severely affected by last summer's wildfires has marked the official close to its worst bushfire season which burned more than six percent of the state's land area and killed twenty five people nationally. The death toll for the season was thirty. Three it destroyed some two thousand five hundred homes and a wound wilderness area the size of of South Korea. This is the globalist stay tuned yesterday. The Hungarian parliament voted by a two-thirds majority to allow the government of prime minister. Viktor Orban to rule by decree the regulations were enacted to help combat the pandemic. But don't have a set time limit and mean no elections can be held. This is deeply worrying for those who believed the authoritarian government may be trying to entrench themselves in this way will join me on the line from. Budapest is Valerie Hopkins his Southeast Year correspondent for the Financial Times Valerie. Thanks for coming on this morning. What exactly do these new Hungarian regulations say but thanks very much for having me and the new law will actually yes it will give Prime Minister or Bun and his government. The power to rule by decree there was a special amendment passed by the law. Yesterday that says that the parliament will focus on discussing corona virus while it will continue to meet and the state of emergency that has been imposed can only be lifted Wants the parliament decides agrees that it should be lifted so the fact that Mr Orban enjoys. A two-thirds majority means that we don't know that people are not expecting it to be lifted anytime soon. There's no concrete criteria for lifting the decree. We had a discussion on four hundred dollars. Had A discussion with the justice minister. You Fargo. Who wrote the bill Who said everyone in Europe? We'll know when the crisis is over but she neglected to give kind of any more clear and serious criteria and the government of Hungary imposed a state of emergency in two thousand fifteen a different kind of state of emergency during the refugee crisis and that state of emergency has continued to be extended not been lifted so even though the number of refugees and asylum seekers and migrants coming through Hungary has more or less diminished since two thousand fifteen so critics and skeptics of of this government are very concerned about what this will mean. I mean is it. Dictatorship by stealth is sensible pandemic legislation to stop the virus or cynical way just to entrench power. Well you know some. Some people have been saying that. Actually Victor or did have had many of these tools already at his disposal. You know since returning to power in twenty ten with two thirds super majority in the parliament. He and his government have been able to rewrite the constitution and Pass the laws even laws that they couldn't get through parliament get them into the constitution later. So what's what's quite interesting is that he tried to rush this through last week Which would have required eighty percent in the parliament to to approve Just because of technical procedures and of course the opposition small and fragmented in Hungary though it may be Refused TO APPROVE. Something that would have no sunset clause and no expiration you know they pleaded and beg. They said it's okay to have a state of emergency you know. Let's renew it every ninety days or something like that And since then the government and the pro government media have been trying to portray the opposition as being with the virus as as not having interest of the Hungarian people at Heart. And so it's it's seen that this is going to be also something to to campaign against the opposition with when the time comes. I should mention that you. You mentioned that there can be no elections held and it's very specific in the law that there can be no by elections referenda or you know small elections but he doesn't mention anything about general elections but there aren't supposed to be any major elections until two thousand twenty two but still the fact that you know if mayor resigns or dies or something like that there can be no elections held. It is quite alarming now. Of course we know that Hungary's currently facing Article Seven proceedings under the EU treaty. That's us when countries a breaching the blocks core values. Is there anything that you can do to censure Hungary and indeed? Should it be doing anything beyond this? Yes I mean. I think raising Raising this as a point of discussion is incredibly important. I think that it's not only about Hungary. But P many people are watching Brussels now to see how they're going to handle this. You know people who are worried about the state of democracy but also people who may leaders who may also want to use this crisis to take advantage of grabbing ever more power so Justice Commission Rangers has said that he's going to review this to see if it's in line with the rule of law. And you know there is a now going to be an entire procedure where all countries legal systems and rule of law levels will be under increased scrutiny from Brussels but I but how you handle this I think will actually be crucial for for how many states perceive their ability to rein them in and you know a prime minister. Orban has really pushed that the article. Seven procedure can only discuss What was the findings of the so-called Sargentini report that passed through the European Parliament? Which was the way that the articles haven't proceedings were initiated? So anything that happened after that he argues is not fair game and I think taking a forceful approach to look at what's happened also. Since then because that wasn't September twenty eighteen will be very important. I mean hungry is just one example looking across the world there are authoritarian regimes using this to further cow their populations. It's a it's a kind of cloak of respectability if you like I mean looking at Russia's specifically or all of this new tech that's come in the the facial recognition tag. It seems that that has given the state many sweeping new powers absolutely yes. It's quite interesting to watch. I've I've also been trying to do a comparative study on how strong men are are using the crisis. But you know when you look at what's happening in in Russia or in the Philippines Thailand you know and even in Israel before the unity government was agreed upon this week. You still have you still remember that. Okay there are other leaders doing this but but this is the European Union and it's true within the EU. I think sixteen member states have imposed states of emergency. Absolutely none of them have done so without a sunset clause or some indication of when it could end or come up for renewal at least Valerie. Thank you very much. Indeed that's Valerie Hopkins South East Europe correspondent for the Financial Times speaking to us from Budapest. Well let's continue now with today's newspapers and we rejoin Monaco's editor in chief Talib Rela- who's in Zurich Studio. Now it's highly you're obviously and so am I. Behind a microphone. So we can't have masks on but when you step away from the from the Mike. Are you wearing a mask? No I'm not wearing a mask. I was forced to to force but I guess the meeting would have happened at dawn. The massacre in Tokyo a few weeks ago so when Japan was getting a bit jittery was at one of the big retail groups. And they said when you come to bill you have to put a mouse gone and then. I had to conduct the meeting in the mouth and my eyes my glasses fogged up and it was. It was an absolute catastrophe so I think this is a good place for us to start today because yesterday Georgina. We saw that the Austrian chancellor announced For All citizens who are going to grocery stores now They will be given a mask before they go into a disposable mouths lady to wear when they go through the store. We know masks work for people who are infected And and that is if you're familiar when you're off in Asia when you're Japan. People were wearing masks and not the The ones who are sick. They're not the ones who are worried about getting infected so this is a bit of a curious picture because we know that of course masks are are in Super Super High Demand. But there's been so much focus on you know can can countries produce them Wiser such a stranglehold from China on the industry it's et CETERA. So Austria goes and makes this. I think rather curious policy at the same time you have the. Who saying we don't believe in mathematics in daily civilian life because just people don't know how to use them properly you touch your face So there's a greater greater chance of infection coming from that and then yesterday we saw president trump summoned fired a question From the from the press corps then he sort of gathered and say well we could look at it. We might look at it. We're not sure but it's sort of. It's sort of suggested that maybe the. Us might look at it or he just winging it as he normally does and now also we see in Germany to The Dis- might be something That that people look out so I think a lot of confusion around it I think it's a bit of an east versus West. We know it's a bit of a psychological. It's sort of a security blanket now almost for for people in Asia and there's just a bit of a of a cultural resistance to it in Europe as well and I mean it goes so far beyond that I was in a pharmacy yesterday And they were only letting you know a couple of people limited time and yet they give you a basket with a metal handle that you hold and you sign for the prescription with a pen that everybody else is touched. It just seems insane. I mean that's where it all unravels in a in a very very strange Manner so and who knows I think at a time when of course we know the medical profession Professions really need masks than than maybe Handed him out in front of the villa. Grocery store or Merkur grocery store in Australia doesn't make much sense and make it a little bit. It's almost what we're seeing now as well and again we've seen the. Who and and certainly many epidemiologists saying. It's a lot of showmanship all of this spring down of the streets where you see these. These massive tankers with disinfectant it. Someone had good point. You're how often are you going to go lick the pavement? It's really one shouldn't bother and then again I think that is just A. That's a lot of set dressing absolutely Let's turn to the F. Tino you found a couple of interesting pieces there. You're a two things maybe we'll start with. Just stay in the states for a moment But just a lot of discussion about the state of retail. We know that. Us malls have been trouble for a long time. Georgina in part because of their offer. They're very uniform. Offer is the mall past. It's IT seldom sell by date Maybe some of reinvented themselves but it. It certainly has been a problem And His and not just to think for the consumer do they want to go there but at the same time of course for Wall Street but also for cities As well because you have a lot of these. Massive derelict centers Sometimes you're sitting. On the periphery of of the inner city Or certainly a little further out by the limiter and and yeah. So they've already. They already challenge going into this now. We're seeing tens and tens of thousands of people being laid off at all kinds of retailers. Macy's talking about one hundred twenty five thousand staff being laid off the gap talking about tens of thousands of staff being laid off and we know that these are. These are not highly paid jobs. Suddenly you have you know the the scale of a of a small city You know without any Without any income And and again with with no end in sight to all of this. Oh this is. It's critical that we know how important that the service and retail sector is already battered. And and you only have to go a step further to think well what's going to become Of course Of of of those companies the other thing which the F. T. there was leading with is. And maybe maybe no surprise but All AOL mergers and acquisitions activity is pretty much falling off the cliff and at a time when management has only so much bandwidth to of course deal with HR issues to to shore up their current client to client roster. They'd need to think about their what they doing with their manufacturing their supply chain. Are they really thinking about engaging with their banks and lawyers to either sell the business or look at new acquisition so again not particularly surprising and I think what it means though perhaps longer term? Georgina is that I think a lot of big deals. We could maybe see that cue for this year. Become sort of the the moment a lot of a lot of companies want to do deals at the end of twenty twenty. But of course if you're numbers aren't are looking at great if you're on the selling side then you you're going to have of course Slightly more robust looking revenues. And you're probably have at the moment. And that means that the deals get kicked into twenty twenty one twenty two. It's I think a lot of things go on hold and not just for this year but I'd probably say a little bit longer term absolutely and I I mean so much of this. Don is done to the exit strategy as we were talking about earlier and that's something that Frankfurter Alamein picks up on the Frankfurt Oklahoma. This morning has their leading right now with. Just what is the Exit Strategy Opposition parties are asking where we going. Here we are a democracy and you need to give people an end point or lease we to work towards something so on one side if people want to of course you know weighed in and get back into into the bay government just wants to be up and running fully and properly again but but more importantly I think they're talking and this is a big issue which I think I really feel. The Germans are probably discussion right now. What is don't just not the economic cost but also you know. Let's talk about the true health cost of all of this. If we look at the number of Germans that have that have died so far. The number that are infected verses. What is the impact of people not not being able to get an exercise? What is the impact for? You know the elderly or just people who are isolated in general. Have no human contact and on it goes. What is the impact just mentally day to day? The stresses of not being able to run your family company that you've been at the helm of for thirty years. It's just it takes a toll on people and so of course the country which is in many ways defined by its middle stand if it's small to medium size enterprise it's it's a very valid question That other lawmakers in Germany asking and no surprise that of course. This is a very dear and hot topic to paper. Like the Frankfurter Allgemeine Germany's newspaper of record that they would be raising this type of question and plenty. Let's look at China because of course having trouble kick-starting therein economy. Will they are and Liz Echo the French. Financial newspaper They are open up with it with really looking at China and of course We've seen Wuhan who a province. Come coming out of lockdown Of course many many corners of Chinese industry have working as well. But okay we can say we. We arrive at the end of Q. One twenty twenty and China starts to move again. But it's it's it's it's rather small steps and I think they're finding of course it's like anything. The light goes off and and sometimes it's very hard to to get the for fully-functioning again and I think that is the same thing with the big engine like China but a second question comes out of that article as well is is. What's their appetite going to be? So if you see the rhetoric in the United States Where of course we've had a president talking about the China Virus Etcetera. And of course you know a very active trade war as well you wonder then you as as we go down the track. What type of questions are going to be rays? Are you going to see campaigns? Very very confident campaigns made in USA and made in USA has always been Of course a bit of a rallying cry it's been Certainly a big marketing story and likewise made in Germany made in France made in the UK. Etc I think it also raises the question. You further down. Maybe when this is all over and and we've been asking the same question as well. What is our relationship going to be with China? Are we going to say oh? We're happy to to have China come in and bid for our railways. Were happy trying to come in and bid for our five G. networks maybe But maybe the the the type of playing field. How level is that playing field That's going to have to be addressed. Tyler. Thank you very much indeed. That was titled Delay In Zurich. This is the globalist monocle. Twenty four we continue with the day's business news after this short break ups is a global financial services firm with over one hundred fifty years of heritage built on the unique dedication of all people. We bring fresh thinking and perspective to all while we know that it takes a marriage of intelligence and heart to create lasting value for all clients. It's about having the right ideas of course but also about having one of the most accomplished systems and an unrivalled network of global experts that's why at. Ubs We pride ourselves on thinking smarter to make a real difference tune into the bulletin with UBS every week for the latest insights and opinions Romy Bs all around the world. Well it's time to business with the broadcaster and financial journalist Cooper. Good morning to you Louise Morning. Let's let's start with oil please. So any I've ever seen an oil price an oil market. That is so broken at the moment oil. The first quarter by the end by the way ends today thirty first March January February march. And we've the worst first-quarter oil prices ever oil price. Down about sixty percent sixty percent yesterday in the states. New York crude got below twenty dollars at the time you've got the Saudis and the Russians having a big spat really big. Wow about who controls OPEC who controls the world's oil price you've also got demand for crude collapsing. I mean absolutely collapsing. Half of the world's airlines airline capacity planes a currently sitting on the ground that by itself takes five million barrels of oil of global tomorrow. And just like that. Also if you've been driving recently if you've got out and about probably many people haven't been but that's the very point. Votes are completely empty as a significant fraction of the world is under lockdown. If you look at Goldman Sachs they were twenty. Six million barrels of oil will be reduced In terms of consumption this week. So you've got an absolute claps in demand and fact we look at the futures price what what oil costs in the future but if you look at like crude wondering round the world in big containers which nobody knows what to do with guests what refineries on shutting down as well. There's just shed. Loads of crude sitting in oil tankers in the seas around the world. A nobody wants it. If you if you wanted to buy an oil tanker full of of oil it would probably cost you just a couple of dollars a barrel paypal or almost paying to take oil away from them. It is quite extraordinary. How quickly this happened. Also bear in mind. There's an awful lot of will one there. Whole countries that demand on that rely on oil exports all the big oil producing nations of the world. There's a whole load of companies that rely on thriving oil industry. They sell them Kate. The makes the refining all the celtics all the stuff that you know builds an oil rig. The bills shape the builds a refinery. All those companies are being because suddenly oil companies and the oil industry isn't buying much and so this gives you an indication of shock. And frankly like I said I've never really seen it happen this quickly and we're going to be discovering the most come quite how cataclysmic this campaign the only upside is. It's very good if you do need to fill your car up but but also it's very good for for dampening down any inflation this. This is a very deflationary. Chat TREND OIL DOWN. Jigsaw up yes so I. Don't you love this story so clearly? We'll stuck at home. We're all on most of STUCCO. We're all trying to stream videos in the evening or trying to do children's homework online or trying to work ourselves online. It's quite taxing. Rarely trying to get your computer setup and trying to buy laptop this beater. Let's be a surgeon. Laptop sales is everybody now has to work for all. This technology has proven quite trying for many and so we've turned apparently jigsaw puzzle maker. Saito Times a booming and this is a Bloomberg article. They've interviewed somebody. An American company could wiped mountain puzzles. That they said they've had to stop accepting orders that two weeks. Behind in shipments twenty ten to twenty times higher than average at apparently not alone ravensburger off got quite a few of their puzzles. They said sales have rocketed. Almost four hundred percent. The only problem with this is clearly. Getting hold of a jigsaw is now quite difficult And the only ones. We've got Christmas ones so I think we'll be doing Christmas. Jigsaw apparently there you can actually do jigsaw puzzles until the same though you got to touch them feel them. I. I'm not you know I I like. I like my traditional puzzle. We'll be going downstairs to gap Christmas ones out. Let's have a look at garden centers because this is really bad news for plants. Yes in some ways so I don't know about you. I am growing my fruit and vegetables as well doing that. You haven't stopped that. Jj Not quite well. That's that's a bit of a thing apparently here in the UK everyone the empty shelves in supermarkets empty anymore and decided to stuck at home. They might as well do something. So getting out seeds and siege trays to plot to your own fruit and veg coming through already Georgina. But more problematic is the garden centers closed and what this is first of all. This is a key growing season. This everyone in the spring goes out starts. Do Gardening buys the lights applause. Now the problem with plants. I'm say a cost seller cars will still exist in three months time. The plants what nobody puts plots out in June July August and most of these plants will be dead and so what this sort of the nurseries that grow the ponds to stop with and the garden centers are pointing out by the way Garden Centers. On Two thousand here in the UK or close. Is that pointing out. This is two hundred fifty million pound. Hit that there are just shed loads of plants. That will literally be binned and they paid for them. The nurseries have grown them but they can't get them online sales. There's not the capacity to deliver them. This is not just in the UK. By the way I've seen photos of tulips that have been harvested in the Netherland. Just been this is a problem for the whole horticultural industry. Louise May your leaks and beans flourish. Thank you very much indeed. Now the pressure has been on for public broadcasters the world over throughout the past weeks in times like this it's a chance for them to really come into their own and provide news information education and entertainment to their nations. The BBC has come under a lot of scrutiny. Recently with questions being raised about how it's funded and whether we'll scrub the license fee but could a pandemic like corona virus. Be The thing that saves it. Monaco's Robert Bounds speaks to the TV critic. Scott Brian about how the BBC is adopted it services in the past fortnight and the importance of public and local broadcasting. It's a very interesting time for the BBC which under the under the and the current government has received a lot of criticism in its reporting on Brexit and the BBC was at at a crisis point As kind of a perch to renew. What are we gonNA do about licence-fee all these sorts of things it seems that people's attitudes the BBC's suddenly that it is second only to the health service or something in terms of how it gets leant upon how gets relied upon and how much it's appreciated by most of the people in the UK. Can you sort of can you sort of feel so the warmth towards it creeping back very much so very early days and I think it's also to point out you know the BBC have been admired by large amount of the population for for a long time? You know the devil frequent studies to say that the license fees stay with the preferential way that many people would want to go and pay for the BBC in the future but thinking lots of the issues the BBC is facing in recent years is comes down to the facts of whether other more commercial businesses have a model that the BBC can replicate or whether the BBC is going fast enough in quick enough to react to these new commercial enterprises. So for example. There's been so much chattan. The gods to why the BBC and be more like Amazon com the BBC be more like net flicks and the BBC have have definitely tried by releasing box sets by being more flexible by source of investing in sorts of talent that would be able to be streaming by These commercial networks have essentially endless amounts of money. They've able to invest in a lot of talent a lot quicker than the BBC. So I think that the fact that the BBC of able to diverge away from competing. Let's say drama and with talent into something completely. Different that Netflix Amazon would never even think of doing that. Has absolutely no commercial benefit whatsoever. I think could actually be a massive for stage boosts to those who think the BBC should be protected and shouldn't be changed at all. And also I think it will make people realize a lot more about what the BBC does differently comparatively to lots of different sorts of companies out that an even compared to a lot of the public courses around the world such as in the US in the PBS has been doing more specialist shows but just do not have the resources to create a lot of the show is that the BBC have promised it shows the power of a national broadcaster and sort of what what what that means to people. I suppose as well the reach of the BBC from its online platforms to national television stations to local radio and all the rest of it. It is in a in a unique position. I suppose which things have. You been tuning into that. Have sort of changed the tone of the of the of the of the broadcast of change their kind of editorial tone. Maybe the way that they speak to listeners. More have you noticed a sort of discernible change of tone of some of the programming across the BBC. Yes definitely so for example because they want to basically ensure that the main new surface is intact that it doesn't come to stretch by too many people getting ill. They've sought to for the time being pulled over their sources as much as they can into that news offering so for example essentially warning news and I really noticed in terms of BBC radio. Five Live having many experts on it's possible and essentially coming assaults of nonstop chat room wave specialist in In in the field and doctors with everyday people asking a mix of different questions about their lives and it can be down to you know health and symptoms but it can also be down to essentially you know employment questions or questions. Surrounding trump will or questions surrounding that consumer choices. We've specialists expert so I think of never seen never heard something so reactive so in so sort of quickly changed and so dedicated such as this voice. I really noticed the power of BBC local radio I think until now local radio stations within the UK have seen to be a bit old hat in mostly aimed at a certain type of all divulgence with lots of choose that. No one's really hard for a lot of time. I think many people were sort of expecting that local radio going to get caught quite brutally but the BBC. I've always kept committed and this is a time which I think is actually really turned out really well because if you think about a lot of people who will be suffering the most in the next few weeks a month of vulnerable older listeners. Who might be staying by themselves for long periods of time and doing special things that they've announced also that they already doing which is having services forecast essentially straits in people's living rooms and homes if they're not able to make it to church. They've made commitments that they'll be working with olive tree groups so essentially if listeners source of half requests for help the BBC will be that to tell them what services who in the local area but also be essentially a reaching coating communications service. So it's sort of made me realize that the a lot of these ongoing services able to be very flexible and changeable very quickly according to the needs of the local community because it's not just a national problem an international program but it's also local problem and that was Scott Brian Speaking to Robert Bound. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to producers Marcus Hippie Culture Rabelo and Daniel Bait and our research Film Courthouse Manager Today was Christie Evans. I'm Georgina Godwin. Thank you for listening.

Finland Germany Europe Zurich British Broadcasting Corporati Switzerland Hungary London United Kingdom Monaco Tyler Georgina China Japan United States European Union editor in chief prime minister Marcus Hippie
Friday 27 November

Monocle 24: The Globalist

1:00:18 hr | 4 months ago

Friday 27 November

"You're listening to the globalist first broadcast on the twenty seventh of november. Two thousand and twenty on monocle twenty four the globalist in association with ubs. Hello this is the globalist coming to you. Live from the dory house in london. I'm not coming on the show ahead. Their european union is well prepared for a no deal scenario but of course we prefer to have an agreement brexit. Where are the grownups. Will britain be further plunged into economic chaos because of a desire to triumph in this game of brinksmanship. We'll get expert analysis from vincent mcilvanney and also looked to boris johnson's new chief of staff and his relationship with the chancellor of the exchequer then poland and hungary swear they believe in gender equality but not enough it would seem to reverse their veto on the trillions of euros of pandemic aid that's conditional to a deering to the rule of law will examine what happens next donald trump fired mark espa for telling the truth and now he's pardoned. Michael flynn for lying. We'll ask what kind of dangerous precedent this sets. Plus we learned this week that depending on your view of things we have either visited by an extraterrestrial intelligence or that the long winter evenings in utah are on the slow side. It's friday so we'll have our usual. Look what we've learned this week. We'll review the papers and get the latest financial news from lewis cooper and finally can berlin rent revive the creative sector and is it a model that could be implemented elsewhere. That's all ahead on the globalist live from london. Donald trump has said that he will leave the white house but only once. Joe biden is officially confirmed as the winner of the election. Britain has lost its medical regulator to assess the oxford and astrazeneca covid nineteen vaccine candidate in the hope. Roll out before the end of the year and argentina's diego maradona has been buried next to his parents. In buenos aires the global footballing icon died on wednesday at age. Sixty following a heart attack. Do stay tuned to monocle twenty four throughout the day for more on those stories but first michelle bonnier the chief negotiator has warned his british counterpart david frost that unless downing street shifts negotiating position. He will buck out of brexit negotiations scheduled for london this weekend with just over a month to go until the deadline. This could have extremely serious. Ramifications vincent. lack of any his political reporter and a monocle. Twenty four regular is on the line with more. Good morning to you vincent. Good morning. how's it all then just descended into a game of brinksmanship. Well quite possibly. I mean this latest delay came author member of the negotiating team tested positive for covid nineteen last week and so the rest of the team have been isolating and it's led to the cessation of the talks but really as you say. The time is taking on any of that. Thirty six days or so left until that deadline and the eu made it clear with bonnier saying unless the u k was willing to budge. He wasn't going to get on. The year starts day to come for a weekend of more talks. So the british position has awakes. Been take the eu every point down to the wire brussels midnight such that is a high stakes gamble that they were pursuing before covid. Nineteen effectively wrecked the economy. Not just around europe. I particularly britain's economy as well. We heard the dia full counts coming from the chancellor earlier this week and so now it really is a game of who will blink first with about ninety five percent of this agreement done. Is it worse on. Either side caving. In on those last five percent of the topics they need to get sorted in order to make sure that that is a deal there is a lot to play for still but it does seem increasingly like it is brinson more than the eu that needs. These talks to be successful. And what is that five percent will. There are three main areas. The one that we've all had so much about fishing even though two counts for less than about point. Five percent of the uk whole economy. It's become a real contentious issue launch. Because for years it has been a bugbear of the british tabloid papers at the battles that go on the channel and the north sea between a british fishermen and european counterparts incursions into water. Things like throwback so when you hit a quota of certain species if it's courts in nets it was having to be thrown back And obviously die and it could have been eaten and that became moreels sort of issue with the eu here in the uk. Lots of footage was taken of these throwback policies and so the sort of main bugbear there is what's been called zonal attachment An annual negotiations between the uk and eu the uk wants in order to set quotas for things like stock division. And what can fish and cons say that is something that will really affect coastal communities up and down the eu. They wanted to have a much sure fishing. So they don't want these annual negotiations When the other side you've got said the second topic the standards in domestic subsidies as well seems to be a growing problem so this is the ease worried that the uk could assertive. Lower the standards when it comes to environmental policies when it comes to employment policies and be race to the bottom so companies might come to the uk because it is cheaper and easier for them to operate to set up factors here because you haven't got the same standards in the rest of the eu and the uk could also put in a domestic subsidies or state hayes and increase an unpleasant unfair playing field where they'll give incentives to countries in order to set up their businesses in parts of the uk that under eu rules. They count can't give and then the final third. We think. A disputed area is the dispute resolution. So who should look over this now. The e you of is a little bit worried given the uk's behavioral withdrawal agreement trying to break national law already less than a year off that was ratified so it wants make sure as european court justice sits over all of this but the uk of course wants to shake itself free. Of course it only wants to stick to have power a british governments up at. You still need some kind of mechanism for dispute resolution and that is still a big contentious issues about ninety. Five percents of this declaration is done about six hundred pages. We believe This last five percents is sticky issues. That still remain. Now vincent we oversee know that the timetables incredibly tight even if they do managed to secure a deal but if they don't get one. Where does that leave britain. Well it leaves britain heading towards No deal oh. Wto terms what like the prime minister seems to call ustralian deal. It'll names the same thing. It means that britain would leave without access to the single market and would be very much out on its own. Then we've heard over the years the various projections that the british whitehall administration's The civil service have for what would happen. We know that it would li two weeks. If not months of chaos particularly around the ports britain is very weak. And this is something that they've detected a when it comes to its Serve resilience if the ports link between dover and calais were to be impacted either because of increased bureaucracy coming through the french side an will say that kid also be protests. They think is well from fishing ships to try to blockade the ports on the french side so that could lead to huge disruption in supply lines in food delivery lines it could leave british shops running without Many many goods on the shells and of course with that has already been strained. Max this year with covid nineteen and so one thing that the retailers are saying it will be as bad as thoughts in two thousand eighteen two thousand nineteen because they have had to get that extra storage capacity in place. This year they have stocked up more because of covid nineteen in recent months and we're expecting british consumers to spend less over christmas because of course we're having these much smaller christmases to might not impact badly but they'll still be massive disruption across the board. There was talk of having to use hired. Planes are after fly in medicine. Hospitals were being told to try and source medicine medicines and medical supplies on other routes not david kelly and so we know that it could lead to a huge disruption in person own until already being a pretty disruptive year british life and it would leave huge questions about things like british rights when it comes to to traveling across europe. A plane routes all sorts of things. That said that haven't been sorted out if these negotiations don't come to a close vinnie. I want to look at the the what's going on in downing street. This talk of big divisions between soon sooner the chancellor and johnson a particularly over this brexit tale seeing that The chancellor who replaced santa javid at the beginning of this year Really spelled out the other day in his words he said were coming to now with the vaccines. The end of dealing with this pandemic need the beginning of the financial recovery and he has as and the slightly rock star status in the uk. Because he's been the man that's turned on the money taps. He's been the man that ran the sally scheme he supported. Work is a self employed most of them throughout this year. And so he. Someone is this popularity and he's worked hard to groom. An image is very strange of the main. When you see a tory add this campaign. You see two versions one with the conservative lego inside and one with the conservative lego and then logo that Himself has created eating very active on social media platforms that he knows that now is the hard part said. The uk economy is expected to shrink by levin point three percent this year. It's been the biggest strength of three hundred years. Unemployment expected to get seven point five percent next spring. That would be two point six million out of work. He's the overseas aid budget by. About four billion towns down from point seven percents point five percent of gdp so he is starting to make the soundings that there is real financial struggle coming at the moment. He's on increasing taxes. But he says he will. He's frozen the pay of one point three million public sector workers and so he is trying to say a. We believe hundred seems to the prime minister. Look the economic outlook is tough enough. He is a brexit t he someone that supported brexit and was in the leave campaign but even he knows the now the idea of hitting no deal which could cause further pain to the uk economy lack of consumer confidence and just estimate look on the international markets like burston israeli. Making things worse cells that it is time to try to get a deal and we think he is trying to pressure the prime minister who let's not forget with someone who wrote two columns a brexit one a remain one and need wrote the brexit one and then sent it in because he thought it could do his own career good and so he is trying to encourage the prime minister. Now is the time to get a deal. We push this as far as we can. Let's get this deal done because the timetable is tight. And of course we've seen the the departure of two prominent levers from downing street. Lee kane and dominic cummings What can you tell us about. Boris johnson's new chief of staff of the name. That's not many people have heard of. I had just come scratch my head about who he was and he was actually the principal. Private secretary at georgia's bulletin. He was david cameron's chancellor from twenty ten twenty sixteen so he's coming. In as chief of staff he previously worked to the treasury for many years. He saw things like the olympic budgets And he's well-thought-out thoughts be highly intelligent quite sociable. He's a father of three. But it's really being seen as a bit of a reset because he's replacing. This jewel team of lee kane and dominic cummings who worked with boris johnson on the leave campaign and they were highly contentious figures. They were aggressive. They were fighters. Dominic cummings had these huge idea of reforming in everything that he could see. He wanted to reform the civil service and whitehall. He was starting bustles left right and centre with organizations like the bbc. And i think he hits become a prominent figure. I've talked to canadians music. I've talked to you know ustralia new zealand media and they know the name dominic. Cummings this is not the name. They should know he'd earned a profile to match his boss at large they of course because of that trip we all remember to barnard castle where he broke the rules he had set himself on covert and he did. That's a round trip to test. Its site with his wife and child in the kyw was all remarkable bank holiday weekend. I think diane rosenfeld is a person who will be hearing a lot less of and that is because he is someone who has worked for both labor governments and conservative governments at when he was a civil seven he's been in private banking and consultantcy since then but he works in the uk. It will for many years. He's not someone who's going to be front and center. He's not going to try and reform everything that he sees with. Grandiose plans that frankly through failed to really launch he is as a signal. I think from downing street's that they want to just get on. It's been a very difficult year. They need someone who can be under the radar and work with people effectively. Vincent thank you very much indeed. That was vincent mcevoy. Anita the leaders of hungary and poland. Who said that. They will uphold their veto of the european union's next budget of one point eight trillion euro which includes a substantial amount for pandemic relief. Unless the block decouples this from deering to the rule of law funds will be denied to members that violated democratic norms which places hungary and poland firmly in the crosshairs. Tough negotiations are expected. An e. u. summit next month. Well i'm joined now by valerie. Hopkins whose southeast european correspondent for the f. t. valerie thanks for joining us this one. Can we start by recapping. The meeting between the leaders of hungary and poland. What was said sure. We'll good morning and thank you so much for having me so yesterday. Prime ministers are more of its key convened in budapest to sort of well. Some people thought they might be trying to find a way out of this budget impasse. But in fact they have dug deeper down into their resistance to the idea of tying the disbursement of funds to meeting basic conditions for the rule of law such is functioning judiciaries transparency accountability etc and. Both of them have already been protecting each other in the so-called article seven proceedings that have been going on for more than a year for both of them. They've pledged to protect one another and so what they said yesterday is that they would like to decouple this. Eu budget from the from the recovery fund. Which is about seven hundred and fifty billion euros. And so that so that they can still access the funds. But i think it's really important to point out and very few people in the budget debate have been doing so that this mechanism that that the other member states agreed to is actually quite weak. So you know. Hungary and poland are sort of fighting this on principle in the sense that they don't they don't want this to set a precedent and they don't want to be subject to further scrutiny. Even though they say they have nothing to hide they say it's a politically motivated process. One of their objections is their reluctance to promote gender equality and women's empowerment as part of the bloc's foreign policy but both countries stressed their commitment to equality between men and women. So why did they take issue with the term gender equality. It's really in. This is a really interesting debate. That's going on right. Now they the hungarians and the and the polls are also quite keen to talk about their commitment to gender equality or excuse me to the equality between men and women. they don't like to use the word gender and they don't like the idea of gender as a social construct hungary actually more than a year ago banned the teaching of gender studies as an academic discipline and they also took went through great pains during the pandemic in the first round when they passed an emergency a very controversial at that point emergency legislation at the end of march. And they also then the next day band the rights of people to change the gender that they were given at birth and this time several weeks ago when they went into a second state of emergency in hungary They decided to propose amendments to the constitution. That would say that every child has a father who was a man and a mother who was a woman so so they take great pains to emphasize equality between the sexes. but they don't like the term gender and they go so far as to to blocking many european union documents press releases declarations that that use the term gender and poland. As well. You saw that as coronavirus pandemic as a second wave really started to crest in poland and the government to cook quite a strong action to restrict abortion rights that has brought many many people out into the streets so both of these governments are instrumentalising. Their culture wars at a time when they're under fire from brussels for law violations but i mean democracy and the rule of law founding principles the eu. Non-negotiable what does it mean. Then for the future of europe if you can be a member but not stick to what is it the very heart of what the eu means indeed. I think that we're opening up a big question. Now i should point out that hungary and poland maintain that this is a political process. Hungary's justice minister in repeated jewish with me and others maintains that there is no single definition of rule of law. She says rule of law is whatever they don't like about hungary you know and it's true that all of the member states have different Legal setups different Constitutional courts of ministry of justice's ministries of justice have different power in in all these different countries but but the fact remains that that both of these countries and also others. I should point out the czech republic. Bulgaria have well documented issues with with using european union funds. That wind up being used in a in a corrupt manner. But but i think the question that you raised is more interesting. Some of the analysts that i talked to say that you know. We're at the us definitely in crisis. But it has a potential for a deeper crisis than brexit. Because for instance the uk is leaving whereas this is fundamentally challenging the way that the eu is functioning. Institutionally from the inside and some member states are already talking about okay. Hungary doesn't like this recovery fund and we will then the twenty five of us without hungary and poland will create our own recovery mechanism and they can be excluded from that if they don't want to adhere to these basic rule of law restrictions. But you know again. What does it say them when you have a twenty-seven member block but but not everyone can agree on how to get out of the very deep economic crisis since the second world war. I mean of course. A massive own-goal hungary and poland. They desperately need those funds Valerie just quickly before we go what happens next the ease instituting legal action. I understand well. I think that the eu are still looking out for what to do. They have told hungary and poland that rather than just veto the budget that they should take this to the us court of justice and challenge the mechanism but what seems unclear whether hungary poland are really willing to do that. I mean i think this kind of high stakes game of chicken will continue but eat for hungary and poland as well. You know the the last budget cycle as well. The funds annually contributed between four and five percent of each country's gdp and both countries stand to gain disproportionately and and have really really suffered tremendously during this year's economic crash. So i think the leaders are still searching for a way out of this morass and the german you presidency has a great task before it. Now there's a big question of whether there will be a consideration of suspending the so-called article seven proceedings that are going on against both poland and hungary already for rule of law breaches. Which are they could end up in both countries losing their you voting rights but because they're being pursued both at the same time and and this would require unanimity it. They're seen as effectively toothless. So there's a big debate about whether lifting these procedures would help move the impasse forward or actually reward hungary and poland for their boisterous obstructive behaviour. Valerie thank you very much. Indeed that's valerie hopkins at the f. T. now still to come on the program more erotic behavior from the white house and we learned this week that depending on your view of things we have either. Bean visited by an extraterrestrial intelligence or that the long winter evenings in utah are on the slow side and takes us through what we've learned this week. This is the globalist stay tuned a vs has one nine hundred investment analysts from over one hundred different countries over nine hundred of the sharpest minds and freshest thinkers in the world of finance today. Find out how we can help you. Contact us at. Ubs dot com. You're listening to the globalist on monocle. Twenty four i'm georgina. Got the former. Us national security adviser. Michael flynn who was convicted during the justice department inquiry into alleged russian interference in the two thousand sixteen election has been pardoned by president. Donald trump trump called his own action. A great honor whilst house speaker. Nancy pelosi called it an act of grave corruption and abrazen brazen abuse of power. Well which is it. And what kind of precedent does it set. Let's get the opinion of scott lucas professor of us. Politics at the university of birmingham scott. Good morning to you. Good morning do remind us of flynn's short-lived term. I think it was just three weeks in the white house. Well while it was only three weeks in the white house there was an import run up to the while he was on the trump campaign in two thousand sixteen. Because michael. Flynn lied to the fbi on two occasions and pleaded implied pleaded guilty to lying to the fbi about a number of conversations. He had with the russian ambassador. Sergei kislyak and december two thousand sixteen. Why were those conversations important because they were about an incoming trump administration lifting sanctions on russia. That had just been imposed by president. Barack obama over moscow's interference in the two thousand sixteen election and interference which of course favoured donald trump. So the was that that michael flynn on behalf of the trump campaign or trump transition was trading immediate political favors in exchange for russia's help The initially the trump administration tried to keep planning office in january february two thousand and seventeen but he had to be sacrificed trump's trying to create a firewall to prevent further investigation. That investigation didn't stop of course accommodated in the miller report which found that there was cooperation between the trump folks and the russians but the right wing insisted and kept pressing trump. You must pardon. Michael flynn he became like this icon for the misinformation that this was all a deep state plot to overthrow the president and we do at some point. That trump would probably pardon fled. It just so happens to come. Easy as trump is trying to cling onto the white house after losing the election in november. We'll see what kind of precedent does this set. I mean do you think that we'll see trump do similar in this. Lame duck period. Oh yeah i think there will be more. And i think that's for a couple of reasons but first let me remind you. That is not just that michael. Flynn actually lied to the fbi about the russia case. It's also that michael flood may have faced prosecution over being an unregistered agent for a foreign power. Taking hundreds of thousands of dollars shrunk turkey and russia for his work while he was on the trump campaign to the extent of making on voice of the turkish government. About extraditing a cleric who is considered an opponent of president aired on And that michael. Flynn was making more money of trying to get nuclear power plants for saudi arabia while he was on the trump campaign and the trump administration In other words trump is willing to give flint a pass for that for two reasons. One he wants to bury the trump russia a fair and trump still faces possible charges over obstruction of justice over trump russia. And secondly michael. Flynn could testify against donald trump in a number of proceedings that are ongoing at state and federal level. Trump wants to cut off that possibility. But you know what michael not. The only person who could testify against donald trump avoid that possibility and of course after trump's term ends in january. He is as you say likely to face. Many legal challenges is there any way he can preemptively. Pardon himself no. We don't think so. I mean no president has tried to pardon himself so we're on noodle legal ground but mostly glands say no that power can't be used to get yourself off the hook what donald trump could do however days before january twentieth. Joe biden takes office resign. Let mike pence become president mike pence pardons donald trump. That is an extraordinary scenario to to think of if it didn't happen in the interest of a united america do you think joe biden might pardon trump if he is convicted. I don't think biden will pardon trump because the scale of the abuse of power by trump as well as the possible crimes is is great probably greater than that of richard nixon in the nineteen seventies. But i what. I do think joe biden will do as is that he will not possibly. He will not push the justice department To do federal investigations in other words. Trump is in sort of a limbo but of lambeau at the federal level. However what joe biden can't do is issue commands to the new york state prosecutors who were compiling a series of cases against what would then be the former president and i mean. Do you seriously think that we could be looking at a feature where donald trump is behind bars. Look georgina there are many things that have happened. We could not visit for years. So i i wouldn't rule anything out at this point. I think donald trump's gonna go kicking and screaming and he as we've seen with his dispute of the election results. His attorneys will drive this out as long as possible. So trump might avoid prison but to avoid prosecution. Now i think even the donald can't get away with that scott lakers. Thanks very much indeed. Here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. Donald trump has said he will leave the white house but only ones joe biden is officially confirmed as the winner of the election. The electoral college meets next month. Trump says he'll keep up his efforts to overturn. The result earned that a lot of things will happen between now and january. The twentieth when biden is inaugurated as president. Britain has asked its medical regulator to assess the oxford astrazeneca covid nineteen vaccine candidate. It in hopes of a rollout before the end of the year health minister matt. Hancock says the hope is the vaccine will meet rigorous standards so that vaccinations can begin before christmas. However a number of scientists have raised concerns about trial results which could delay approval in the us and the eu and lawmakers from taiwan's main opposition of threatened pill guts and exchanged blows with other lawmakers in parliament as they attempted to stop the premier from taking questions. Us pork implants president. Tsai ing-wen has announced that from january. The first court containing an additive that enhances leanness would-be committed. It's banned in the european union and china and the decision has created an outpour over concerns about food safety. This is the globalist stay tuned. Well it's the end of another week. Which rose here on the global. This can only mean one thing. It's time to turn to our contributing editor andrew as he brings us this week's installment of what we learned. We learned this week. That depending on your view of things we have either. Bean visited by an extraterrestrial intelligence or that the long winter evenings in utah are on the slow side. We learned that an unearthly seeming three meter. High slab of polished steel was secreted amid the red rocks of the beehive states outback. We've let alone. The today's most probably either a work. By weadock minimalist artist john mccracken paying hamas there too but none of that was interesting as how we learned of the silver monuments existence. It was spotted by ranges from. Utah's department of public safety. Who were counting bighorn sheep from a helicopter. We learned that flying over. Utah's glorious landscape pointing at shape from god. Damn helicopter is an actual job. Which people get paid to do so. We've learned that we all should have paid more attention in helicopter klaus. We learned that. Utah's bureau of land management. Have a commendable sense of humor. He is the statement on the matter. Voiced by monaco's potential alien visitations desk chief kalamata to rebelo who isn't from utah. We would like to remind. Public land that using occupying or developing the public lands or their resources without a required authorization is illegal. No matter what planet you are from in france we learned that. I desire to smack a fellow citizen upside the head. However reasonable will not do for reasons of breaking quarantine in the brittany burg of land. Your genomes hinted an apparent ne'er do well who is walking the streets in contravention of current lockdown rules when lip laud asked the suspected scofflaw for the downloadable certificate necessary to licensed such an escapade they were bemused to discover that the potential miscreant had one and had punctiliously filled it. In giving the time of his post curfew peregrination ten fifteen pm and his reason for it. I e that he was going out to duff someone up he is now one hundred and thirty five euros. Worse off for trying this on another one hundred. Fifty down on the grounds of public drunkenness. And he's doubtless wondering why he even bothered trying to do the right thing maestro. God save the queen. Yes very amusing here in the uk sticking with the subject ob citizens attempting a somewhat optimistic interpretation of covid nineteen measures. We learned that magna carta a primordial bill of rights signed grudgingly off by king john. Back in twelve fifteen is no insulation from present day. Laws among the foil. Hata dan door hard of thinking. The idea has taken root posting the allegedly pertinent article. Sixty one of magna carta in your place of business excuses you from pandemic related strictures on happily for this thesis article sixty one which translates broadly as to don't have to can't make me has no legal force as we learned when one persistent offender was find a men find again and again and again queen blakey headdresses of kirk lease we learned is now on the hook. For twenty seven grand but will not be daunted you might say it's a case of live free or die like head. I come on this platinum. Taking of a wry sidelong look at the news to review all and we learned that sound tracking any and every mention of rudy giuliani with some reference to his four seasons total landscaping of philadelphia. A few weeks ago is still funny at least two us and that's all that matters maestro. Bring novelty giuliani personal attorney to outgoing. Us president benito kaufman has in recent weeks. Reinvented himself as the evil. Knievel of our dot cage contriving. A succession of bizarre stunts many of which have ended in undignified calamity. we learned guiliani was intent on taking another stand on his bosses behalf. This time at gettysburg a breathtakingly audacious choice of location. In giuliani's become circumstances not only years gettysburg famous for being somewhere the previous cranky. Right wing nationalist crusade came unglued but it's synonymous with presidential gratis and our tori eloquence. Giuliani your gettysburg. Promised to be something akin to ozzy osborne playing scholar with possibly even greater likelihood of a bat getting its head bitten off we learned however that sad to relate. We may have passed peak. Giuliani as he contented himself merely with rambling. Bafflingly at a room. Full of other people with nowhere else to be your your election because of these two counties and maybe one other is shan still. There's always next week from article twenty four. i'm andrew. this is the list. I'm georgina godwin. And here's tells hecker senior partner at control risks to have a look at the day's papers. Good morning to you charles. Good morning gene. Shall we start with the f. T. and vaccinations those who get vaccinated deserve more freedom so this is an opinion column. Tell us what it says. That's right a little bit unusual. Perhaps for the review of the papers. Today we're going to start with an opinion piece instead of a news piece. But this is a piece of writing from john capela. Who's an opinion columnist for the f. T. that really wonderfully encapsulates. The zeitgeist an emerging issues that are very very current and very modern coming out of the pandemic. And you're right about the headline. And what john capper argues is that there's people who get vaccinated should be able to do more in society then people who don't moreover companies that insist on proof of vaccination are actually acting in the public service and so there's a lot of things going on in this piece which makes it so interesting because one of the things that he starts out with is an example of what happened at ellis island at the end of the eighteen. Hundreds of the beginning of the nineteen hundred when immigrants were coming to the united states. And that is that they were checked for tuberculosis and they were checked for other diseases. This is believed to be in the public service of the united states and that they were only letting healthy people in so he. Setting a type of historic precedent. Number one number two. This is a shot against the bow of the anti fax irs. Who it's anticipated is going to be sort of force against public health and in uptake of the vaccine. And what gappor is saying here. Is that listen. You know if you reject the vaccine you should be punished and you should be prohibited from accessing things that the rest of us you know the brave people who take the job in the arm that that those people should get more access. An anti vaccine should be punished. And and so he's referring additionally to a decision may just a couple of days ago by qantas the airline that says they will only accept long haul passengers who have poof of vaccination and then says looking if you want to go to nigeria or if you wanna go to other countries in the world you need a yellow fever certificates so nothing wrong with that. And and it's just this great conversation about freedom and mobility post pandemic and what that may or may not require now of course while we wait for vaccination. Thousands are dying every day particularly in america but one hospital in vermont has got more problems than just being overrun by covid patients. It's also had a cyber attack right. So here's a really really interesting piece from the new york times. It takes something that's happened on his very small level that from mont university hospital in use it to illustrate something that's happening all around the world and the headline here is patients vermont. Hospital are left in the dark after a cyberattack and essentially this vermont hospital was hit by. What's called ransomware. And ransomware is where a cyber criminal shuts down your computer network until you pay usually quite a chunky sum of money in in ransom sort of like like kidnapping your site. Your online systems until you pay them off and for a number of days in october This hospital was shut down and patients were locked out and treatment had to stop and records. Were lost all of these things and what this shows is the latest trend in cyber hostility that began at the beginning of the pandemic when cyber actors in cybercriminals were taking advantage of the fact that we were all more vulnerable because we were working from home and then you had a wave of cyber activity in connection with the us elections. Then you had a wave of cyber activity as different states and non state actors tried to hack into vaccine research and now the latest thing in and this is particularly in the united states. The latest thing shutting down hospitals and this attack in vermont was part of a wave that hit more than a dozen. Us hospitals ironically. I think georgina the last time we talked on the air. We talked about the firing of christopher. Krebs who was one of the most senior cybersecurity officials in the united states that was done by president trump after the elections. And so you see this. This building trend of cyber hostility and then sort of disarming of us cyber defences in the face of this activity. I'm where do these threats come from. Kennedy pinpointed to one place geographically. Yes in fact. This particular incident they believed was traced back to russia. But you have a fairly reliable stable of cyber actors in this in this field. And that is russia and north korea and iran and those are the state actors. And then you also have non-state actor because bear in mind that asking for cyber ranson is a great source of income for terrorist organizations. So you also see you know i. S and al qaeda and other terrorist organizations who see a mexican organized crime gangs using this sort of tactic to raise money. There is a a a fairly consistent set of gangsters out there who are doing us. Yeah let's turn to the guardian now and this is about a e you students being fined. That's right so following on from the discussion that you had at the beginning of the broadcast about brexit. This is again. This sort of human level impact of what's happening to brexit and of course the complicating factor the pandemic and the guardian in a headline that says first year. Eu students face eight hundred pound brexit bill if not in uk before twenty twenty one so the guardian paints the following scenario for us. Imagine you are a student somewhere in the eu and you've been accepted into a uk university. And of course you know. The uk remains a fantastic magnet for students all around the eu because of the quality of the universities. Here so imagine you get accepted but because of the pandemic you're beginning your first year studies at home so you haven't been able to cross the border and come in to the uk and apparently because of brexit. You need to do that this year to earn settled status as a student mouthful. And if you can't do that you're being penalized what you've got to do is you've got to pay additional visa processing and application fees. You've got to pay additional healthcare and insurance fees every year going forward if you don't have settled status and the only thing that the uk saying right now is you've got to get here. You've got to put a toe on british soil. Even it's only for a day you've got to come. You've got a stamp in your passport and then you can go home and finish your first year of studies. But unless you do that. You're facing significant financial burden. I'd imagine what that's like if you're a first year student only beginning our studies and with the vaccine to without the vaccine. I mean at this point finally charles. There's a story that should not be a story. How is this even news. That outgoing going president of the united states says he will in fact leave. Let's as you touched on in your summary of the news a little bit earlier and this is on the front page of every newspaper website and it is remarkable that this is even a story but in spite of all of the shenanigans and in spite of all of the ongoing challenges to the veracity of the us elections. It appears that maybe president trump has taken some etiquette lessons. His finally learned when it's time to leave a party and that is that the president has publicly acknowledged that he will leave the oval office. He will leave the white house on inauguration day in typical trumpian fashion there. There was a follow up question to this admission. That said listen. Are you going to come to the inauguration. Will you be sitting next to a president-elect biden as he's inaugurated in apparently the president sort of shook his head and kind of winked at the cameras and said. I know the answer jail to us. Thank you very much indeed. That was charles hecker from control risks. And this is. The globalist is a global financial services firm with over one hundred fifty years of heritage built on the unique dedication of all people. We bring fresh thinking and perspective to our why we know that it takes a marriage of intelligence and heart to create lasting value for all clients. It's about having the right ideas of course but also about how one of the most accomplished systems and an unrivalled network of global experts. That's why at. Ubs we pride ourselves on thinking smarter to make a real difference tune into the bulletin with ubs every week for the latest insights and opinions for me bs all around the world. Well it's time to business now with the financial analysts. Louise cooper's louise. Are you in a shopping frenzy. No although possibly i should because it is black friday. How many emails have you had offering you. Black friday deals already this morning to people some people labeling as green friday for some reason why did. I've had a few emails now. I've i've already got organized. So there was a survey form witch. The uk consumer champion and. They've said be very wary of so-called deals because ninety percent of them actually the products were offered an equal price or lower price at some stage of the year. So these supposed deals also. There's not many of them. Interestingly is come from america uk retailers have gone with it not gone with it. Interestingly this year's time of a high street crisis if not catastrophe the two largest clothing retailers in the uk next marks and spencers have both decided not to participate now. first of all next hated black. Friday tried it for a couple of years and is now reverse that decision. How interesting is that. Next is regarded as being an amazing clothing. Retailer grown firm consistent growth over thirty years. Now the number one you can plaguing retailer. And the other one is marks and spencers the sort of stalwart of the high street. That's reported its first ever loss ever is in its entire history as a public limited company so both companies are under a lot of pressure. But they've both decided to not participate. Which i think says an awful lot about the damage. Black friday deals can do to retailers. And of course and of course the one winner and the person that really promoted amazon so amazon. Doing amazingly well. We've already discussed how this. How the share prices soared. How jeff bezos is worth billions tens of billions even more than before we've talked about how online search in their profits are up like thirty to forty percent. Interestingly amazon's also come under a lot of criticism for not protect protecting their workers in warehouses though amazon will say no. We spent a fortune on a personal protective equipment But interestingly last night amazon announced it was going to give all of its stuff. A five hundred million dollar bonus so that means if you're a warehouse worker you're gonna get a few hundred dollars and this is if you're working between in december that crazy crazy time in december and it is quite interesting. They have come under a lot of criticism. A lot of scrutiny for their working practices. This is sort of another way an interesting identify. There are in europe as well but here in the uk amazon or actually running adverts fronted by their warehouse employees saying what a fantastic place amazon is to work so they're clearly taken all this criticism on board taken on board that politicians and regulators. All over the world are looking at dominance of online retail. And i think this five hundred million dollar payout to all of its global workers is part of the same thing. Yeah it's not like he's gonna miss this basis will not miss. I mean it's like loose change for him and at this point i should just point out that if you are considering buy books from amazon you should also check out bookshop dot org which represents the interests of independent bookshops across the world all go to a charity shop and buy them secondhand. Yeah exactly now. Economic dumping is something that china does particularly in africa. But now it's accusing australia of doing the same to it through. This is really interesting. It's on australian wine. A subject on a product terribly. Close to my heart georgina. As well as my taste buds and my stomach and it's massive they're imposing tariffs of between one hundred and two hundred percent which is massive tariffs okay. It essentially makes selling australian wine to china pretty much viable the share price of the world's biggest winemaker. Twa treasury wine estates has fallen more than thirteen percent this morning in australian trading. This is a huge deal now. Australia has extremely rich on selling stuff to the chinese because the chinese economy is growing ten percent eight percent nine percent apes and year four decades. And that's always been a very cozy relationship but the relationship is starting to break down. It may be all the australia's feeling much more grieved regarding trade. Thanks to trump has been up to but it's also that australia joined in with the criticism of covid nineteen originating in china. That's the first thing that upset them. And this is this is this is potentially a really significant move not surprisingly the australians. Happy agriculture's a massive industry for for a stra and china consume something like forty percent of australian wine exports thirty nine percent. I mean absolutely massive so one wonders where this is going to end up but clearly for stralia winemakers. This is a huge deal. There hasn't been time yet for australia to react other than getting upset and saying things but the thought is they may will take this to the world trade organization. Louis find very quick look at google and facebook. And uk's attempts to limit their power so again one of the big themes over the last year has been politicians and regulators looking at the power and the dominance of american big tech. It's not just amazon and particularly with facebook and google dominate online advertising. Here in the uk. It's thought that facebook. Can google take something like eighty percent of the fourteen billion pounds spent on online advertising. Why because they can target you know. Google knows your searches. Facebook knows who your friends with you like what you don't like that. Power gives them the ability to tug adverts. Which is advertisers love. This is ripping out particularly newspapers in the media industry that have really relied on on on advertising. And if you look at the newspaper. That's their business model. And so what. The uk government has doing is they're setting up a digital markets unit as part of the competition and markets authority to look their power and their dominance to look how they use data and to restrict the try to restrict their power to enable more innovation new companies to come in and to enable the media industry to thrive and also to enable consumers to have more control and to give small companies the ability to thrive and not be squished by google and facebook. Frankly there's going to be way more of this all over the world absolutely louis. Thank you very much also. I know that listeners will be interested because they've been asking me about did. Finally follow me on twitter. Yes it's mostly pictures of my dog. I mine is mostly pictures of the cats. We deeply fascinating. Both of us. cooper thanks for joining us. This is the globalist on monocle. Twenty four now. Many tenants in berlin have had very welcome news reduction in rent though. Some of them aren't even aware of the windfall. Katie causes montiel's contributed in berlin is on the line to explain 'cause you what's the detail of this new legislation. Hello good morning The new legislation is actually old legislation. It came into effect in january Of this year and it considered three pots. The first was an immediate stop to rent increases. The second was the rent sealy for all new contracts And that run. Ceiling was a bit of a complex system the twelfth different categories and it means that rents cannot be higher per square meter anywhere between four and eleven euros more or less and the sad part of the devastation which is what came into effect on last sunday was a rent reduction for that applies to all rental contracts that one existence already before the law was passed so any tenant who has a rental contract. That's older than than i think he last year and can have to run reduced now To a maximum of twenty percent above the red ceiling. that was decided in this new. And if you're currently pay yep sorry. Go all the other tenants aware of this. I don't know i mean it it. It was actually. It was not a big media event. It's not as much as when the law was passed and that's been several stages to that so already. In april all landlords were required to sense that tenants the information they needed to calculate what the maximum rent would be. Come november So you know if people have been following this then already in april they should have known okay so these are the categories. This was still. This is what kind of what kind of heat into a bathroom. Do i have What's the location. And from that you can calculate your maximum rent should be and this has been sort of a very quiet this week. So i'm not sure many people Were and honesty. The the other part of this is that it's actually not as easy as it sounds because the The the the law is still before the constitutional court answer is really important indicators that everybody's hedging them so that the official things like the inefficient advisor. Even if you rent now whatever the difference but that aside in case laws repealed next year you might have to pay back right supposed to presumably landlords. yes. I would assume all and Obviously the political parties set mostly represented landlords of the conservative. Party's been liberals the ftp this edu And this was the no that was passed by balance leftist coalition government for the green says democrats and the left I wonder if if it does stand might has a beneficial effect for the artistic community will see the. The creators of crowd spurred being able to access more affordable space. I think the jury's our on that and the the the main issue why everybody's not exactly right now is that the data we have so far is not promising so there isn't a hold of official data so the main batch of state of there is come from the from germany's biggest property website and they published a report in october where they said that yes rents between september two thousand and nineteen september. Two thousand twenty rents in berlin did did indeed sink by decreased by five percents. Oh by the way. I mentioned the only applies to flat so any building built before two thousand fourteen. Right this is. This doesn't apply to anything that's built recently because the the law with meant to encourage so the topic to rent. Did it decrease however the number of flights offered also decreased by forty five percent very many thanks to katie cross in berlin. And that's all for today's program. Thanks to producers daniel h and collado rabelo our researcher charlie film a court studio monitor nor a whole off to the headlines. There's move music on the way. And the briefing is live at midday in london. I'll be with you for the rest of the money under glibness will return at the same time on monday. And don't miss monocle on saturday tomorrow. And a couple of literary treats me to look forward to The winner of the baillie gifford prize for nonfiction. Craig brown who won his book about the beatles. One two three four. The beatles and time is now live on our website. And we're also at the moment carrying latest edition of meet. The writers which is the winner of the booker prize is of course the fiction and that is douglas stuart. My name's georgina. Godwin thank you for listening. Monarchial and ubs to present a nobel cause a book that celebrates more than half a century of the nobel memorial prize in economic sciences. A nobel course gave an overview of the anti four winning laureates and their influence on global society. It builds excitement around economics by talking to the laureates and unpacking their theories from a pioneer in the field of the economics of climate change tune israeli psychologists to change the way we think about thinking the winners stories make for an incredibly diverse. Read as well as real life case studies of applications of the prize. Winning theories you'll find an illustrated history of global economics alongside. Look ahead at what we can expect. Over the next fifty years you can discover the story of alfred nobel himself and the legacy of his awards on sale from october. Twenty twenty from monaco and he s purchase the book from retail stores offer. Monaco dot com a nobel. Kohl's asking the questions that shape our.

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Monday 29 July

Monocle 24: The Globalist

58:43 min | 1 year ago

Monday 29 July

"You're listening to the globalist first broadcast on the twenty ninth of July Two Thousand and nineteen on monocle twenty four the globalist in association with U._B._S.. Hello this is globalist coming to you live from Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin on the show ahead. Iran will start up a weapons-grade plutonium plant following the failure of talks on the future of the nuclear deal. They've been mass arrests in Moscow is protests against the city council elections continue enough. The slogans were exactly the same this time round we are the power here and Putin is a thief and Viktor Auburn of Hungary has been whipping up a crowd at a nationalist festival in Transylvania then we'll hear more detail on the issues driving the demonstrations in Hong Kong as violence flared again on the streets this weekend plus. We'll check in with our Los Angeles Bureau wrote with a roundup of business news and look through the papers. That's all ahead right here on the globalist live from London Iran has announced. It's going to start a weapons-grade. Plutonium plant aunt this comes after a last ditch attempt was made to save the Tehran nuclear deal yesterday Britain France Germany Russia and China met in Vienna to discuss the joint comprehensive plan of Action The J. C. P. O. a forged in two thousand MM fifteen and put at risk when Donald Trump withdrew the U._s. from it in May last year since then Washington has reimposed punishing sanctions against Tehran Iran has disregarded limits the deal set on its nuclear program and now says it will escalate the program well here to tell us more is David Pacheco's who is author of nuclear Iran the birth of an atomic state David. Thanks for joining us. Do we know how this meeting unfolded. It's very very good to be here this morning. <hes> I mean things are still ongoing but early signs of positive. The key takeaway keeping to understand about this meeting is that everybody wants it to succeed. Nobody wants at this meeting. which is the five <hes> I mean the nuclear deal with Iran and the P five plus one? That's the Security Council plus Germany. Everyone is in that room except the United States and everyone where on one side and the security remaining Security Council plus Germany one bed to be breakthrough they want these negotiate succeed so far we've heard about you know tend to cautious optimism <hes> but the fact remains that without American the rumors gains would be very difficult to make a real breakthrough but what about these reports that the talks has in fact failed Iran is pushing forward with its nuclear enrichment program like I mean Iran is like heavily signaling hair. <hes> Iran obviously doesn't mean he's pulling the lines tale. It's trying to get the the you know the European the Chinese he's an Russians to to help them to try and go back the guys Jackie Zabel but I would say that the talks failed. I mean we're still I'm still hearing you know tentatively positive stuff Iran gangs what Iran does and his gang as say the lion's tail and undo what Kansas your attention to itself and grand standards and people in the hines I mean this is a very old boy to understand globally while he's doing. It's for domestic appeal so what he wants to do is eventually goes to the shaking table and <hes> give concessions and in order to do that. It has to be seen to be standing up to the Great Satan in little safer note. Whatever so we very much sort of Iran type phase of STIGMATA signaling negotiation so we know that the relationship between Iran and Europe has been and put under further strain after the activities in the state of a mood or in the Strait of all moons British authorities as we know have detained an Iranian oil tanker of the the coast of Gibraltar because of the alleged violations of of European Union sanctions Iranian Union forces impounded a British flagship? Are these incidents being linked to the deal. Oh absolutely I mean there's an immediate context of the wider context so you Iran's seizure of of of the British time <hes> O._B.. With no British citizens on Oh boy is an immediate contents types of Britain seizing of an Iranian tanker Nazir Alter the one of the context this is all about the needs <hes> they want to you know get into sort of Adana with the Europeans I wanted to essentially get going again. They essentially sort of pushing pushing pushing the game of brinkmanship but this is all very much go of getting back to the table and getting those sanctions lifted and getting that deal back in place but unfortunately without the Americans. It's all pretty much academic united our European nations in their desire to save the deal. I mean as Britain faces the the idea of a no deal brexit. It's clear that the U._k.. Needs the U._S. and might be unwilling to upset Washington. I mean yeah I mean look at question the priorities I think Britain wants the Nikkei deal to to to remain intact but I mean what's our priority right. Now is brexit so it's very lay down the list spiritus. There is general consensus on you know work on the design for the deals remain place but obviously you know different countries. How you know missed? It's varying degrees. Look I mean personally speaking don't trump or his many many floors. He's not a woman agency. Instinctively dislikes not for mobile the financial reasons <hes> there is a belief in Iran and indeed among some of the impounds some ADR remember has already said he's willing to meet with your own without three conditions. I think that you know don't from Kim Bay well sign and you could with the wall and happy to be more or less what his predecessor did but the fact that it's him and not Obama. He'd be happy to do that very mine I mean he he tore up the new deal essentially out of spite because it was a bomb that made it not for any real other reason is it slightly terrifying for for the other signatures chase that trump might go ahead and just do a deal without consulting anybody. Wow I mean I think trump is terrifying. Generally you never know what to do. I mean he's terrifying domestically in international relations where they say many meeting policies even worse so. I think you're absolutely right. Yes let's within Iran itself. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has publicly chastise the country's elected president and his foreign minister as the accord unraveled. So how united is that leadership do. Did they have the same aims. Well I mean this is I mean the the story of Iranian politics is a constant dialectic between so-called motorists and cycles or you didn't hauled lines so I mean there's always Rafsanjani and <hes> from minister <hes> <hes> the reef much more hours facing on much more keen to deal with the world than harmony and the hotlines around it when the deal was struck how they made it very clear that that you know that was the end that there was going to be no detente though the phone lines were worried that the thin end of the wedge it would mean detente with the West has made it very clear he doesn't want that <hes> and this him and rest and Janis already do differ but ultimately attend the calls the shots and <hes> you know what trump did to with everything you we need to do was to to me count the motorists in regimes embolden hardliners so Iran's already exceeded limits placed on the stockpiles of enriched uranium and has now announced further measures doing exactly what they are and how dangerous dangerous <hes> they really well. I mean the thing about what Iran is day enriching the high levels. This stuff is they're very easily reversible. That's the thing I mean it's potentially dangerous because wherever you enriched sort of potentially weapons grade levels or you exceed what has been agreed <hes> you'll violating the terms of the deal that I mean I still technically still alive so it's always dangerous. I mean the big worry about this. Whole situation is is not the you know? Everyone decides to go to war. Oh sweet with each other about wearing happened. We stumble into it. You know well one type scenario where Iran sees an American tangcal harasses wants American soldiers Die America retaliates then Iran Hezbollah said miss all the do is right and you know all these moving parts only get Benjamin and you can have something very very bad that no one really wants but no one's really by council say he's in law me situation generally and so what are the status of the talks now. They're ongoing <hes> well. I mean they they they met <hes> <hes> Chinese expressed cautious optimism but he rolling. I mean Iran is is is playing a very sort of tough rhetorical game. It's trying to get the attention of trump is trying to get attention to the weld saying okay we all. We're going to do this or found the deal come back to the negotiating table or we're going to just behave very very happy and you know middle. This is the hope that they can return to the trump will and they can do it tricky from a position of strength because they have to if they're gonNA make concessions they are buried state. You know they cannot they cannot lose ever seen to lose face with their public because that way exhaust it's renewable Jerry Regime David. Thank you very much indeed. That's David Patrick heracles. Here's what else we're keeping an eye on today. At least three people have been killed and eleven injured in a shooting at a food festival in California. The incident happened at the Gilroy garlic festival that attracts more than one hundred thousand people. The police say the suspected shooter is among the dead the U._S. Director. Sure of National Intelligence Dan Coats resigning after two years on the job and frequent policy clashes with the White House coats tendered his resignation in a letter to president trump yesterday trump has tweeted that coats will step down on August the fifteenth. The resignation comes just two weeks after Labor Secretary Alexandra Kosta resigned from his post and it's reported that south career is going to send a naval unit to the Strait of Hamas to help God oil tankers sailing through it South Korea's Michael in business newspaper rights so we'll send an anti-piracy unit currently operating in waters off Somalia. The United States has earlier are South Korea Japan France Germany Australia and others to take part in operation to secure energy shipments agents passing through the Strait of all news. This is the globalist stay tuned earlier this month Moscow city authorities disqualify dozens of opposition Asian candidates from standing in the upcoming city council vote on the apparent spurious claim that some of the required signatures they'd collected with fake. This triggered mass protests the latest of which took place in central Moscow on Saturday the police police detained nearly one thousand four hundred people and used batons to disperse the crowds during condemnation from the European Union which said the disproportionate use of force against the protesters undermined the fundamental freedoms of Expression Association Association and Assembly the demonstration showed that Muscovites are prepared to take their anger with the authorities decision onto the street Monaco's Alexi Karloff reports Moscow hasn't seen protests like this in years not since that glorious winter of two thousand eleven and two thousand twelve when tens of thousands of people took to the streets demanding free and fair elections actions funnily enough the slogans were exactly the same this time round we are the power here and Putin is a thief. Some might say this just goes to show that nothing changes in Russia but that's not true people change. There's a new generation have protesters who are ready to come out and stand their ground. What source unchanged is that? The authorities don't seem to know what to do. The old tactics of intimidation arrests and violence just aren't working anymore. One of the chance of the Saturday demonstration was we are not afraid to which one protested quietly added where we are little but you still can't stop us. So how did it come to this. They yes in a sense authorities have only themselves to blame. Obviously they never wanted the opposition candidates on the ballot especially because some of them like Ilya Yashin Mithra good cove and Lebeau sobel Zabul are outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin in Moscow mayor says beyond the way they used every trick in the book to try and keep them from running simply too much the first Moscow's electoral commission declared some of the signatures and their support invalid and the police launched an investigation into water described as threats of violence against said commission then the homes of several of the opposition candidates was searched then said candidates were detained freed and detained again needless to say none of this helped. If anything it had only boulder the protests the Moscow city Duma city palment doesn't actually have much power it doesn't control the city's budget or choose key points but authorities know that letting independent politicians take part in these elections would mean recognizing them and that's just something they absolutely cannot do. Vladimir Putin for example is careful to never say the name of his archenemy Alexei Navalny as a way of refusing to acknowledge his existence. It's hard to tell what's going to happen next. There's another big rally planned for this weekend and they will surely be more detentions in the meantime but the ball is now in authorities caught. Will they step up that crackdown or will they allow free and fair elections to be held for Monaco in Moscow Amex Gaurav. Thank you to Alexi. You're listening to the globalist still to come on the program. We'll check in with our Los Angeles Bureau and hear more about what's happening in Hong Kong. This is the globalist well. It's time now to cross. The Los Angeles where Colosio Rabelo has around up on U._S. News for US Good Morning Colossus that Sir starts up with this shakeup of the intelligence service. What's going on Hi Georgina? Yes let's start with this story about the director and Dan Coats <hes> that has just resigned <hes> today the Sunday now the announcement Nelson had been expected for a couple of months now <hes> that he was going to assign he had been clashing with the trump administration for awhile and essentially <hes> today's announcement by the President <hes> on twitter <hes> made at uh-huh Coats didn't have you know the graceful way out of the National Intelligence Office and now he will leave the job next month. <hes> there's still a couple of weeks of them left there to tie up loose and but doc was very much expected that after two turbulent years <hes> where they were very much at all <hes> especially over the Russian interference in pretty sixty election that coats wouldn't be staying along as the next next up until elections election enters peak campaign season and so the person taking over from him is very much a trump loyalist. Yes exactly at trump trump loyalists have been appointed and it is what is expected once we we look back at how the past couple of months has been <hes> for <hes> past couple of months and year has been between the trump administration and <hes> coats. That's <hes> trump would appoint someone that basically we'll follow <hes> his his lead and cause too many waves when it comes to the national security and basically he just want someone that follows <hes> and it's not being viewed with alarm in America interestingly. It's told those things that just adds to the pile all alarming things that are happening in the U._S.. I mean look the Los Angeles Times in The New York Times. <hes> one day reported on the Dan Coats as stepping down <hes> before it was made clear who was going to be replacing him <hes> this was a concern that was mainly voiced as you know he despite everything he was one of the last proper <hes> seasoned people in this administration nation you know someone was respected throughout his peers in the intelligence community <hes> so anyone else <hes> that <hes> it's coming along would <hes> wouldn't have the same sort of recognition as coach. They'd have <hes> well. Let's move onto your new hometown Los Angeles <hes> and the affordable housing developments. They've just received huge amounts of boost in state funding yes so we have spoken about this story a couple of weeks ago when a we suspected at that <hes> L._A.. Wouldn't be receiving these funds because of the stalemate that was happening at the federal level and <hes> over the weekend. It was announced that fifty seven million dollars in state funding is coming to Los Angeles directly four affordable housing now of course we know this is a city that is battling with one of the worst <hes> homelessness crisis across the United States so <hes> this <hes> fund at we'll go towards you know an array of developments <hes> elements from <hes> services for Homeless Youth and disabled people to even <hes> support system for <hes> like medical support systems or employment training and there's also a provision for legal counseling and domestic violence support so it's not just about you know building housing which is one of the main reasons why so many people are going to this crisis but it's also trying to you know get people's <hes> wellbeing being emotional and mental wellbeing as well <hes> kind of trying to query might easier for them to find a job and if they happen to be <hes> you know on the streets because of former criminality or for substance abuse you know there's something I think there are other than just the houses that for a lot of these people end up being temporary and a couple of weeks later they're backward. They started now. I know that urbanism is is your your specialist subject. How will this change Los Angeles architecturally? Is it exciting these new developments were will there be a state type buildings. No they actually are quite exciting and you know <hes>. It's it's very much going against what we would expect affordable. Level Housing to be I guess where you know. Let's do the cheapest way and as many as we can <hes> there's this idea to try to integrate them in areas <hes> you know where three are have quite a high median income <hes> in those areas so that the whole community works together <hes> now some of the projects of the rendering have been announced. You have some <hes> respected architecture studios working on them and they're not just in part of the the city <hes> that's traditionally <hes> of affordable housing goes to <hes> obviously now that brings another question which is how is the community <hes> going to react to that you know <hes> the every of Venice for example here in Los Angeles a couple of months ago <hes> I've been with the ones that had been <hes> in route to get one of these units but then you know everyone in the community was like well I don't want that unit here. <hes> and it's about changing changing and indicating people's perspectives on the matter as well <hes> 'cause sadly <hes> a lot of people do <hes> think that having these units in their area because it's going to devalue their own homes so much they end up you know signing petitions or rallying against the south and that's the next hurdle not funding is in place is how do we make sure they actually happen and finally let's have a look at another architectural story. This is the amoeba music building what's special about this this building wise it being knocked down and what's the backlash so even music building <hes> it's an icon of Los Angeles architecture. I mean it has both inside and outside a spectacular and murals painted by two different artists kind of neon <hes> facade and kind of tourist as well and it's one of the biggest record stores and the the West Coast for sure now a couple of weeks ago <hes> <hes> officials in Los Angeles and to a debate that had been going on for the past three years which was to get green lights for new development to be broke here. We're talking about you know. This building is in a very privileged position. It's right in the middle of Hollywood on Sunset Boulevard and it doesn't get any better location wise than this so it. It's not unexpected that developers wants to take over the space and build high rises that tend to have more you you know send just a record store in a couple of shops around because this is just a two level building at the moment <hes> but it represents so much for this history of Los Angeles the city and for the history of music in the United States you know every good artists played in Los Angeles House performed at Amoeba for free <hes> that <hes> now a group called them healthcare foundation and also the coalition to preserve L._A.. <hes> Cup Su are suing doing the city <hes> because of that primes to demolish Amoeba and the whole idea is to preserve <hes> icon such as this now if how successful the score is going to be we don't really know about it's it's something that has been dude at least here in the city of a good thing to protect a bit of the heritage and cultural heritage of Los Angeles color. Thank you very much indeed that was Monaco's collateral Bella in Los Angeles. The U._B._S. has over nine hundred investment analysts from over one hundred different over nine hundred of the shop is maulings freshest thinkers in the world of finance today and one this mall. No one knows and find out how we can help you contact us at U._B._S.. Dot Com in recent weeks leaks the streets of Hong Kong have been filled by not just the biggest demonstrations in recent memory but some of the largest gatherings of people in human history they began as protests against a proposed law which will enable extradition of suspected it criminals from Hong Kong to mainland China. They've escalated into a standoff between Beijing and the people of Hong Kong is under Moolah to tell us more. There's protests have been largely only and peaceful especially relative to their colossal size among the expressions of dissent that have flourished our so called Lennon walls named after the late Beatle these ad hoc installations nations of posted notes were a feature of the umbrella movement and have returned in two thousand nineteen butter Chow is a Chinese artist activist and designer who makes political art and posters for the protests in Hong Kong. He explains the importance of the linen rules. I think it's pretty like when you have facebook or twitter ing real live in that way you have a physical form. Actually people will using sticky notes to ride down the message about understanding of the situation right down their message about supporting the people and paste on straightly on the war in the city. They are using the sticky notes the colorful for ones they are green yellow pink dumb those three colors and people will just write down their message saying you know stick together. Go Hong Kong or free Hong Kong who simple messages than pace it online layers by layer until the whole building is covered. I mean it's really beautiful just color wise as if you had a piece of wrangle that just literally stick on the stretching Hong Kong but also I guess because this way well people can just is leave a note on the war without worrying to be monitored by the government and recorded so it's also kind of helping them to keep them anonymously and trying to express and protests in a safe way. The protests have not been without unruly moments earlier this month. A mob forced its way into the <unk> building which houses Hong Kong's government the Legislative Council known as LegCo among the vandalism perpetrated was an unfurling the flag which flew over Hong Kong during its years as a British colony here is Fernando Cheung Labor Party member of Hong Kong's Legislative Council and a pro-democracy campaigner. We don't WanNa see any vandalism more violence to occur in Hong Call. We don't condone it but on the other hand we don't condone all we shouldn't even condemn the administration for its lack of any responses to the <music> outcry from the public so far and it seems to lack any will to govern. It's not doing anything he essentially other than every single time coming out to condemn so parties condemned the demonstrators condemned their vandalism condemned the violence but they don't provide any answers so they are the ones who hold all the power and resources and still they don't do anything folding their heads. This bill is not initiated by the Central People's government. I I have not received any instruction or mended from Beijing to spill how we doing out of our KIA crunches and our commitment to Hong Kong it was the proposed new extradition law that drew Hong Kong's people into the streets but disatisfaction with LegCo and its chief executive. If Carrie Lam runs deeper than that Johnson young is the head of Civil Human Rights Front organization focusing on Human Rights and democratic development in Hong Kong solid state media has already described what that the democracy let's see movement the political reforms many in Hong Kong as a colorless solution sponsored by foreign agents and this is not how will this is not how we at all and it gives a lot of justifications for the states to crack down the movement of Hong Kong and because in China they would meet some soft legitimacy to justify their group and a pass China's got menus economic success as one of the foundations Foale delegitimacy now that doesn't really work because of the trade will and also no down of economic growth so we see a lot of groups and also stay sponsored Hogan's who are trying to use nationalism hatreds to four intervention as a way to maintain offer Terry Room in the country and he's Labor Party lawmaker Fernando Cheung again they are governess Nisa puppet of the Beijing regime. Now it is crystal clear to even Hong Kong people now. They cannot hide that anymore. Carry Lemon regime this not serving the interest of the people in Hong Kong she is. <music> the representative of the Central Government. Nobody has any attention or energy to spare. We all are phasing crisis after crisis each day and we don't know whether we're going to stay safe even so I mean how can society be run by that. I mean you're talking about in Asia's international cities of financial how major trading posed and how could you let Tom Com to slide into this situation. Look at longest today. It was like curfew. The shops all closed no activity all because of the anticipation of confrontation and violence this is unimaginable so without the leading the whole administration. I don't think we can rebuild because this administration association has completely lost confidence and trust among the people and that was Fernando Cheung speaking on this week's episode of the foreign desk for more on the Hong Kong protests and where they might be headed tune in into the full episode anytime Monocle Dot Com but let's cross now to Hong Kong where James Chambers can give us the latest James. It's been a really extraordinary we can. What can you tell us about the violence? What a busy weekend here in Hong Kong? I mean normally we used to these protests now. They happen every weekend but <hes> whereas in the past they've happened normally on one day and this weekend we saw three days of protests starting with one at the Air I four on Friday and on Saturday at the demonstration in long which is the the town in the New Territories where the triad thugs beats up the protesters last week and then last night and yesterday was a i I guess more the traditional <hes> protests happening on Hong Kong Island <hes> so there's so many getting busy at year there was the usual response from police in terms of firing tear-gas nothing unusual in that <hes> I guess the the beginning you just how much they they they spread out across Hong Kong and you know they're lost for consecutive days and in terms of of the tear gas and all the rest of it. It just seemed to be a lot more severe fightback from the police looking at footage well. I think you know from our perspective here in Hong Kong I it does seem like it's become the norm our regular response folks. I think what's interesting. What will help the protests with this is what's going on in Hongkong seems to be getting more and more international exposure? <hes> there's a lot more attention on what was going on on Saturday and Sunday outside a phone call. <hes> I'm not is obviously going to play into the protests favor so there was nothing I mean there was nothing abnormal and in the way that police responded this time compared to in weeks previous <hes> but there is there's a suggestion that the types of types of objects being used by the protesters might be ratcheting up you know the the the amount of objects and projectiles being thrown at the police seems to be stepping up and then there's news today that <hes> the police are thinking about deploying these massive <hes> Mercedes anti protests kind of cannon vehicle that they purchase last year they had these kinds of sitting sitting around in Hong Kong waiting to get their comes straight license but <hes> it looks like those might be <hes> being ready to be deployed floyd so as we look ahead <hes> the kind of the tool that it'd be used by both sides might be increase in severity now <hes> I guess the thing that we're all really anticipating right now. Is this press conference but the <hes> Hong Kong Macau <hes> Affairs Office in Beijing is meant to be giving at three o'clock so that's in half an hour's time here in Hong Kong. <hes> you know this is significant because it's it's the first time that this office which looks off to Hong Kong affairs in Beijing has ever done something of this kind of the first time they'll be holding a press conference to tell us what base <hes> planning to do in Hong Kong now one of the questions we've been having so this is what will Beijing do <hes> so I guess we'll be ever would really looking forward to <hes> to see what they say about the city and I'm nick we can kind of gain anything about what they plan to do. James Thank you very much indeed and we'll continue to follow developments in Hong Kong here on monocle twenty four <music>. You're listening to the globalist on twenty four with me. Georgina Godwin the time now thirty four minutes past the top of the hour and let's continue with today's newspapers so joining me in the studio is the political journalist and author terraced. Yes many Terry. We've just been hearing about Hong Kong. How the papers reporting it well? Yes that your correspondent in Hong Kong was saying that there was much more international attention on the protests in Hong Kong <hes> and that certainly born out boy <hes> this morning's U._k.. Papers <hes> so the Guardian for instance <hes> mentions the protests on its front page saying Hong Kong protesters clashed with riot police <hes> an on their inside pages they have <hes> some very dramatic pictures of these <hes> most recent protests including being a protester who's throwing back a tear gas canister police and other pictures of police detaining protester and people being being thrown to the ground and that's also similar coverage in the Times which headlines at China's patience wears thin after eight weeks of chaos and it is again making the point that we just heard earlier about how these protests have become more broad after eight weeks you know having started with the issue of <hes> the deportations to China and the introduction of a new law about people being tried and tried has now become more of a protest against alleged brutality and misconduct by the police and they've got another very dramatic picture here of the police firing firing tear gas at the demonstrators and you can see the serried ranks of <hes> of the police there <hes> with their riot shields and also again mentioning the point by the concerns about how China is going to react after after this these separatists have been going on for <hes> for nearly two months now until saying that <hes> the protesters have been particularly targeting the Chinese liaison office and including things like setting fire to truly filled with cardboard and pushing it towards police so which <hes> that police seem to have reacted very strongly and as you say this is getting a lot of coverage not just on the foreign pages but the front pages to <hes> the other story that of course dominates the British press is no deal preparations <hes> the F._t.. Goes with that on the front front page. Yes <hes> the F._T.. Picks up the story which <hes> other papers haven't highlighted as much yet but the because they have spoken to the chief executive of P._S._A.. That French carmaker owns Vauxhall <hes> which are saying that <hes> it's possible that it's <hes> they might move production Vauxhall 'cause outs of the U._k.. If the U._K.. In there was not able to achieve a satisfactory outcome when leaving the E._U. and that saying that could lead to the closure of Cheshire plot and employs more than two thousand workers workers and <hes> the the the chief executive told the Financial Times I prefer to put the car in Ellesmere port but if the conditions are bad my cannot make it profitable and I have to protect the rest of the company and I will not do it and he said we have an alternative <hes> elsewhere in Europe and says says they've been looking at sites in southern Europe so that's you know another of the concrete examples of things that businesses are already planning for and say yeah. There's a lot of coverage of <hes> new Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to do so amongst other things he's traveling up to Scotland today for his his first visit there as prime minister <hes> but on the inside pages they are talking a bit more about again some of the plan so he's put this government or go to the government on a kind of a new deal footing if you like lake <hes> and they are talking more about <hes> what exactly what exactly that might involve <hes> which includes cabinet commit special cabinet committees set up <hes> on no deal footing and talking about the views as of business so the business group the C._B._i.. Has Been <hes> seems to be slightly taking a more pragmatic approach according according to the Times <hes> and suggesting that the pragmatic approach they quote involves saying things like oh well we're putting some putting sandbags up around around business which doesn't sound entirely as though they are they are happy <hes> with with what's going on the absolutely and ah on the Guardian Front page <hes> the prime minister has been mooned. No deal brexit would leave spending plans entices says the headline yes. This is a report which is come comes from the Institute for Government which is a very respected think-tank largely. The run by people who've worked inside the heart of government and they say there is no such thing as a managed no deal <hes> and it will be very difficult to have this kind of a clean break and also just saying yes if spending inning plans will be in tatters over there talking about the government now spending more than a billion pounds on no deal preparations <hes> but they are also saying <hes> excuse me trust fund correct pleasure <hes> yes saying that <hes> it was been Turbo Hubbard charging the economy. The government is more likely to be occupied with providing money and support to businesses and industries that have not prepared or worst affected by a new deal brexit and they're saying that it is going to be a much more expensive even the government foresees he's and hearing about this new committee the X. Committee apparently that will be chaired by Michael Gave and meeting the Cobra Emergency Situation Room with all sorts of high tech <hes> deadlines and lines of accountability on screens at every meeting. We're told so they have a special committee has special room. They have special tech <hes> but people still skeptical about how this may workouts absolutely well. Let's let's widen us a little bit now and have a look at what is going on in Turkey and Lebanon so it looks like there is a the mass deportation of refugees that all being sent with some up being sent back to Syria. Yes this is <hes> really quite a worrying story. <hes> the The Guardian picks up on so it's one of the stories that we want forgotten about what's going on in Syria but it's not so much on the front pages and saying that <hes> in Turkey Syria and in Lebanon Syrians living in Istanbul and Beirut have been targeted by immigration authorities in recent weeks with more than a thousand people detained in Istanbul and give them thirty days to leave the background to this is the <hes> slightly shift in policy in Turkey but in in Lebanon also <hes> refugees many hooping working without permission have been some really psyched and the host countries there have obviously in Turkey stuck in Lebanon they have had such a large proportion of refugees from from Syria and that's you know affected politics locally and it says this report here says polling shows sentiment running heavily against Syrian refugees cheese and people have not been made welcome but this is very concerning that now the government's actually going up going around and rounding up refugees and taking them home is reports here with people who've been told that you know they've been forced to sign documents before being sent back and not knowing in Turkey what what's happening to them and they just being told you have to send the sign these papers and then being sent back to Syria. Where of course you know this is not being handled by all the international organizations that are there and they haven't got go controls over the process and they don't know where people are going back to and whether it's safe or not and of course in Turkey this plays a lot to domestic politics where exactly in Istanbul in particular <hes> but of course the new man who's an opponent of <hes> also has this anti migrant <hes> stunts and that was what his campaign was based on so it's a yeah very worrying? Let's go to Rome now free public transport if you recycle yes now. This is an intriguing idea which only get sort of a brief mentioned here in in the Times but it's something that I would. I'd like to know more about this. Great System says commuters in Romer exchanging used plastic bottles for Metro and bus tickets under scheme that the city's mayor has called a first for Europe so you can take your empty <hes> assume plastic bottles because it's worrying about single plastic glass bottles but anyway <hes> you can put them into a machine metro station and that Inter return leads an APP with credit to travel on public transport so every bottles. It's like a deposit scheme you put you in a machine you get credit for using public transport and this seems like a star but Rome has got such a problem with with rubbish in particular collection of rubbish and the non collection of rubbish in the state of the streets in Rome has become a big issue in the local elections in mayoral elections <hes> and it just seems very clever idea and it seems something that if it works you would hope can can spread to other cities absolutely brilliant idea terry all right. Thank you very much indeed that was Terry Stephanie. This is the globalist U._B._S.. Global Financial Services firm with over one hundred fifty years of heritage built on the unique dedication of people we'll bring fresh thinking and perspective to work and we know that it takes a marriage of intelligence and heart to create lasting value for Clinton's it's about having the right ideas of course but also about having one of the most accomplished systems and an unrivalled network of global experts. That's why at U._B._S.. We pride ourselves on thinking smarter to make a real difference June in weekly to the bulletin with U._B._S. for all the latest insights and opinions from U._B._S. and experts that's from around the world summer is festival time in Europe and many people like to congregate in beauty spots to engage in cultural debate and listen to Music Isaac. It seems Victor Orban Hungary's prime minister is no different as he made a return visit to a festival in Transylvania this weekend in a previous visit in two thousand fourteen. He attracted much attention by detailing his efforts to build an illiberal state. It was a subject he returned to again as well as talking. The European Union which he says is my grave mistakes of immigration and the economy will join me on the line is Valerie Hopkins Southeast Europe correspondent for the F. T. Valerie thanks for for coming onto monocle twenty four this morning. Can you give us some context why was done in Romania or the prime minister. Every year for the last thirty years has traveled to Tucson Yo ships known in Hungarian or by Latouche not in Romanian and for <hes> a festival that is supposed to be a like a week long <hes> music festival but also political debates discussions and and a meeting place for kind of intellectual elites and supporters of the Party <hes> and their local counterparts in Romania and <hes> this was the thirtieth anniversary of his speech and it comes at a time when Hungary like much of Europe is marking the thirty years since nineteen ninety collapse of the Berlin Wall <hes> and so he goes every year and this is normally where he lays out his agenda for the coming years and and even the coming <hes> decades he he mentioned <hes> the next era of fifteen years <hes> which he said in his speech would be the prime time of his life comparing kind of the transition <hes> of Hungary to a democracy now to a national transition which he referred to as beginning in two thousand ten when he came back <hes> <hes> to become the prime minister for the second time <hes> and has now been prime minister of Hungary <hes> he's now in his third consecutive term and so she laid out he kind of built in his speech he was expanding on his twenty fourteenth beach about liberalism here he really defined it and he tried to shape it and describe it now more I think he's trying to rebrand it as Christian liberty and he really <hes> in his speech kind of tried to pit his vision of of Liberalism of Christian liberty against a so called global internationalist <hes> order which he said you know was trying to diminish personal ties to the state with too focused on individual freedoms and liberties and and <hes> you know that that they were that that these global internationalists are attacking a Hungary and and the things that the prime minister stands for <hes> because he was saying that that incompatible with their idea of of liberalism so he really <hes> was was pushing for his vision and he spent a lot of times speaking about the importance of collective identity collective achievements that <hes> he said individual freedoms can never encroach on the interests of the community <hes> and that that the majority needs need to be respected and he said that that constitutes the foundation of democracy and he had a bit of a dig at the E. U.. Two didn't he he did well. He actually made a very pointed dig <hes> a much stronger more point to dig at Finland which is now holding the E._U.. Presidency and this has been going on now for about ten days ever since Finland indicated that one of the priorities the EU presidency over the next month is to <hes> find a mechanism to tie E._U.. Funding <hes> to rule of law benchmarks you know and Hungary is is a pretty big recipient of EU funds. I think about three percent of its G._D._p.. <hes> <hes> is <hes>. The equivalent has been given to Hungary every year by the E._U.. <hes> about twenty five billion over over a five year period and it is a really important part of the economy so are the one who's that but he certainly certainly <hes> does not want to <hes> be tied to any any rule of law benchmarks you know and <hes> he and his supporters are are very adamant that <hes> the sovereignty that that would be an infringement uh-huh sovereignty so his point attack on Finland he went and looked you know complained. Finland have no constitutional court you know he went into some of the minutiae of how judges are appointed and and he I mean it's quite common in his rhetoric that he tries to point to a double. Double Standard in the E._U.. <hes> and elsewhere that that that people are attacking Hungary because they have a more conservative they'll liberal view on on how the world should be organizer. How you're organizing state <hes> compared to other other countries and <hes> the Finns we acted quite quite strongly immediately afterwards and I think that it's kind of <hes> setting up <hes> an ideological battle that that or continue to you use in his in his political communication now he was a big supporter of us? You'll Vonda lion in her bid. For the presidency of the European Commission. He's due to meet with her later this week to think that he can expect it to be receptive to his ideas indeed. He was a big supporter and he in his speech <hes> expressed the glee that that Hungary he said and the other before countries were able to squash the candidacy of of who he said were political gorillas <hes> Frans Timmermans Nepal's and <hes> <hes> my mental Jaber from Germany and and he what's interesting is that they really made a big effort to portray misunder lions <hes> victory is the success of Hungary as of the four countries but what they and usually they do so by pointing out I think in his speech he said she's a very practical woman and the mother of seven children and that's been something that he's he's trumpeted quite regularly regularly in what he what or bonded and other have not said is that you know she has been. She's criticized Hungary in two thousand fifteen for its treatment of migrants <hes> she's criticized Poland <hes> and express support for the position in the past I <hes> and she has you know articulates a vision of Europe. That's quite federalist. <hes> I think that he that that they have every incentive to try to start off on the right foot <hes> and and the the what I what I'm often told him would have passed that <hes> they expect this underlay into B be aware of the hack that she's in her position because of Hungary and the other Vinaigrette Grete four countries so Slovakia and Czech Republic and and and to be understanding of their position <hes> and how Sunderland <hes> will will behave in the first meeting or <hes> subsequently and guest but I do think that <hes> <hes> she may we'll probably not stop the rule of law procedures <hes> against Hungary that have been initiated the article seven proceedings. Thanks very much indeed. That's Valerie Hopkins of the F. T. Yeah and it's time to talk business now. With upshot rutty from couth shut quite a focus on climate change this morning our environmental environmental protests shaking corporate boards yeah I mean we see them on streets and <hes> we wonder that they have any impact and I thought this story from the F._D._A.. Made it clear that they can have impact <hes> I'm so there's a group called climate action one hundred plots which was set up only two years ago and it has <hes> investors that <hes> manage about the d three trillion dollars of assets and what this group is done is is taking what we see on the streets and brought them to the attention of corporate boards so they're asking companies like oil companies B._P.. or Shell or even retail companies like Unilever or cement companies needs which are big emitters <hes> like <hes> Lafarge Holcim to change how corporate boards operate they want to. They want them to have someone who's specifically on the board of only to deal with the with the risks. It's that time of change <hes> puts forth <hes> and that sort of top down change is crucial if we are to hit climate goals absolutely then onto a story from your own organ from courts talking about extreme temperatures feeling dangerous climate feedback feedback loop. Tell us more so we had <hes> we had a heatwave. It's gone. I don't know if people think about it anymore. <hes> but these sorts <hes> short-term heatwaves actually make a big impact because they are happening being in multiple places throughout the year and so these unusually hot or cold days as scientists refer to them <hes> because climate change also brings cold snaps as we've experienced some of those in the past <hes> caused us to use more energy because we want to live in a comfortable sewn wherever we might be so in the in the U._k.. Wherever there is air conditioning people use more air conditioning <hes> if it's a cold snap he'll burn more natural gas and those commissions add up and because most of our energy still comes from fossil fuels having these heatwaves ends up putting out more emissions which causes more climate change which is likely to cause more heat waves and that's the dangerous feedback luke that we should be aware of absolutely unfunny? Let's have a look at Texas generated more electricity from wind power the column. That's got to be positive yeah I mean we think of Texas is <hes> the capital of fossil fuels in the U._S._A.. <hes> and here it is <hes> you know in two thousand three Texas generated less than one percent of its electricity from <hes> Rynd and about forty percent of electricity from coal and in just sixteen years <hes> this year has been has generated twenty two percent of his electricity <hes> for for Texas and caller generated only twenty one percent and so even in a Republican stronghold stronghold under Republican Governors and presidents <hes> Texas the capital fossil fuels in the U._S._A.. Is doing pretty well under nubile energy and and there's a there's a food cuss that renewables like wind and solar pal will be the fastest growing source of power for at least the next couple of years indeed <hes> and it is peculiar that Texas which is also sunbaked does not have that much solar power just because of the way the policies were set up wind <hes> <hes> been power got a lot more attention <hes> but of course what we do know is that wind and Sun can complement so when <hes> tends to be higher at night <hes> when the sun is shining and of course you've got the sun in the day so shows <hes> Texas has a lot of potential to install more solar and I hope <hes> people in Texas realized that thanks very much indeed that's actually rutty. You'll with the globalist or monocle twenty four and finally today of you for Monaco's editorial flo now culture editor Kiara Miller has some news for us from the Italian publishing industry. If Italian redes- had to point out the country's most experimental novelist very few would think of Fidelity Camacho the fifty-six-year-old broin author is famous for his who the cheesy romantic young adult fiction including cringe-worthy early noughties teenage by both cemetery several cello and less for his writing prowess and yet macho made headlines last week as publishing innovator when he announced his next I toll will be written in collaboration with eight amateur contributors the lucky winners of a contest open until the thirty first of October his forthcoming. Eh Got Saudi Romano. The girl from Rome north already has a plot skeleton in place. The pieces submitted will sit a separate stories in such it in a book by Connie Narrative Device Macho believes this is a way to give back into a public. That's always supported him the C._E._O.. Of Sam the Publishing House G. TO RELEASE The book next year thinks this is an experiment to innovate a market. That's clinging onto a world that no longer exists it's true the publishing industry has had to adopt to a huge shift in the way people consume information but is mimicking the interactivity of the digital domain the way forward Rita's often make their opinions heard on common sections forums and portals bills online that freedom is both revolutionary and pernicious the reason we love books is because they often function as an antidote not an echo to time spent staring at a screen and that was Monaco's Kiara Romola Mela and that's all we have time for today. Thanks to our producer. Marcus hippie will be back in a moment. He's going to be hosting the continental shift for us. In August in much Larry was also a producer on today's show our researches page Reynolds and Nick Committees and our studio manager was Kenya scarlet well after the headlines. I say more music on the way from Marcus. The briefing is live at midday in London today. And of course we'll be following all of those major stories and the Andrew Mueller is here in our time <hes> with his program the foreign desk of course that always gives us a very in depth look at what's going on in the world. I'm Georgina Godwin. I'll return on the globalist at the same time tomorrow thank.

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April 5, 2020 | On GPS: Covid-19 spurs economic crisis, gives way to a power grab in Hungary & forces globe's largest democracy into lockdown

Fareed Zakaria GPS

41:14 min | 1 year ago

April 5, 2020 | On GPS: Covid-19 spurs economic crisis, gives way to a power grab in Hungary & forces globe's largest democracy into lockdown

"This is the Global Public Square. Welcome to all of you in the United States and around the world. I'm Reid Zaccaria coming to you. Live from New York. Today on the show. The Corona virus and the economy is the world headed toward a great depression. And how do we come out of it? I will ask the Nobel Prize winning economist. Paul Krugman Ian Bremmer and Zanny Minton beddoes. Also Corona virus becomes the excuse for dictatorship in the last few weeks. Hungary's government has used the pandemic to give its leader unchecked power. Is this the end of democracy in a European country and India? We will take you inside. Perhaps the greatest gamble yet. The unprecedented locked down of some one point. Three billion people to stave off catastrophe. We live work but first here's my take even as we're just beginning to confront the magnitude of the shock caused by this pan-demic we need to wrap our minds around a painful truth. We're in the early stages of what is going to become a series of cascading crises reverberating throughout the world. And we will not be able to get back to anything resembling normal life unless the major powers in the world can find some way to cooperate and manage these problems together. The first phase has been the healthcare crisis in the world's major economies. The next phase is the economic paralysis. The magnitude of which we are only just beginning to comprehend in the last two weeks two weeks. America lost ten million jobs exceeding the eight point. Eight million total jobs lost over one hundred six weeks during the two thousand and eight to two thousand ten recession but this is just the beginning next up with surely be the danger of countries defaulting. Italy entered the crisis with the highest level of public debt of the euro-zone countries and the third highest in the world. The country's debt will skyrocket now as it spends money to combat the economic fallout from covert nineteen. Next come the explosions in the developing world so far the numbers of infected have been low in countries like India Brazil Nigeria and Indonesia probably because they're less linked by trade and traveled in the advanced world. In addition these countries have tested very few people which is keeping the numbers artificially low but unless we get lucky and it turns out that he does temple the virus. These countries will all get hit and hard and then there are the oil states. Even of the quarrel between Saudi Arabia and Russia gets resolved at this point. Demand for oil has collapsed and will not soon recover. Consider what that means for countries like Libya Nigeria Iran Iraq and Venezuela where oil revenues make up the vast majority of government revenue. The vast majority of the economy expect political turmoil. Refugees revolutions crackdowns maybe terrorism. All of this might happen on a scale. We haven't seen for decades. The world has entered this Ben. Democ with two challenges it is a Washington debt government and private with a total global GDP of ninety trillion public and private debt. Add Up to two hundred and sixty trillion. The world's two leading economies the United States and China have public and private debt-to-gdp Ratios of two hundred and ten percent and three hundred and ten percent respectively. Now this would all be manageable if not for the second challenge. This crisis is occurring at a time. When Global Cooperation House collapsed and the traditional leader and Organiz of such efforts? The United States of America has abandoned that role entirely last month. The G seven meeting was not even able to issue a joint statement on the pandemic because the US refused to sign anything did not label the disease the Wuhan Virus but dispute. That sounds like something that comes out of high school the centerpiece of any global effort would have to be close cooperation between the United States and China instead that relationship is in freefall with each side. Deflecting blame on itself by blaming the other the follow up to the g seven. The G Twenty meeting was also a dad. Even the European Union has been laid to recognize the seriousness of this crisis that most serious crisis in its existence. Arash statement by the head of the European Central Bank caused Italy's worse stock market crash in the country's his now what would be achieved by greater global cooperation. Well since so much of the containment strategy involves travel it would be far more effective if travel bans and advisories coordinated during the eight or nine recession central banks have governments worked with each other to help contain and damp and financial contagion if countries like Iraq and Nigeria explode. The cost in refugees disease. Terrorism would all make us wish. We had tried harder to manage their fall. If the richest countries pool funds and share information that will speed up the arrival of treatments and vaccines and when the time comes to reopen economies coordinated action on trade and travel for instance would give us all the biggest bang for the buck. The problem we face is broad and global but unfortunately the responses I increasingly narrow and parochial for more go to CNN dot com slash for read and read my Washington Post column this week and let's get started look at Los Angeles at Rush Hour. Freeways that are usually bumper to bumper now yearly empty. We'll take a look at the shot of the Shawn's Elysee. It makes the usually vivacious. Paris look like a ghost town seeing such stock pictures and these two cities and there are many many more across the globe. It is obvious that vast parts of the global economy are shut down simultaneously. The question many are asking is will this unprecedented shutdown lead to another great depression? This really global joining me. Now are Paul Krugman a Nobel laureate in economics and a columnist for the New York Times. Zanny Minton beddoes is the editor in chief of the Economist and Ian Bremmer is the founder of the Eurasia Group of Political Risk Consultancy Paul let me start with you. I sometimes I feel as though we even mislabeling this when we talk about a recession or even depression. We've never seen anything like this. This is more like a great paralysis. Mark Zandi At at Moody's who has the best data on this says that if you look at it right now you have had essentially would amount to seventy five percent decline in GDP in the United States. How do we comprehend something like this? The Metaphor I've been using is that this is it's like a medically induced coma where doctors deliberately shut down a lot of the brains function in order to give a patient a chance to a chance to recover from a severe blow. And what what? What we've seen so far is mostly not a recession in the normal recessions. Happen when there isn't enough spending there isn't enough demand for goods. What's happened instead is that we have more of those deliberately. Shut down a large part of the economy because we're trying to avoid activities that can spread the disease. We've done that way too late. But that's it's it's what has to be done and overwhelmingly what we're seeing so far. You know those ten million jobs and sure it'll be fifteen million by the end of this week that we've lost in the. Us are because of that deliberately induced. Coma the that's a pretty bad that self and for millions of people that's total loss of income and then there's a we worry a lot of people all of us are working on this now There's been a second wave which is because so many people are suddenly impoverished. They can't buy other stuff. And so you get a severe recession of more conventional type overlaid on top of this coma that the economy has already gone into. We're definitely going to see unemployment numbers that are as high as if not higher than anything we saw in the Great Depression. The only question really is how long it lasts. Zanny Minton beddoes does. This looks a different in Europe. Because again we have this extraordinary reality that it's all happening at the same time and it's happening in the richest countries of the world simultaneously. It doesn't give and I find pools Metaphor Kinda grimly appropriate. The medically induced coma. And if I might just extend that Memphis metaphor a little bit. I think what is worrying is that we don't really have a clear exit strategy and I think that there is still a view that wheel to beat this and then life will go back to and that's just not going to happen. We are going to almost certainly have periods of risk was undoing some of these restrictions and then having to put them on again as the virus comes back and we're going to damage just as a medically induced coma and leaves serious serious damage if people are that sick so we're going to leave serious. Davidge for the economy and right now. We're seeing these almost unimaginable figures but in real time. So much is happening that we're GONNA be behind. The official statistics are going to be behind getting against. We're going to have a cascade of figures. And just how they get will depend in part Hallam full but also how quickly the very equally dramatic government stimulus plan can actually get the people that need them. The workers that are being laid off the companies that need payroll support and right now on both sides of the Atlantic. They're way behind on that because it's just very very hard to get these enormous programs into gear very quickly. So I'm afraid I think this is. We are just as you said the deduction in the early stages of something that is going to be much much less economically than it is now zanny. Let me ask you about a Europe. Because there have been sort of there does seem to be an interesting difference where in Europe unemployment is not spiking in quite the same way and they're approaching it somewhat differently. I look at places like Denmark. Explain how that part of the European response looks different from the American response so there. There are several ways in which the European response is different. But one is in particular is whether you basically subsidised firms to keep workers on the payroll. Which is broadly the European response and something like close to a million European funds have across countries applied payroll subsidies and the generosity of their subsidies differ there in Denmark. Seventy five percent. I believe of a of a of his average salary or salary is paid for by the government in the UK here. It's even more generous. It's eighty percent the US. Broadly has a different approach. Which is that. There's been a very big increase in unemployment insurance. And so there's been a huge increase in layoffs. There is some attempt also through through loans that can then be forgiven to help particularly move as keep people on their payroll. But I think you are seeing if you will that sort of classic difference the the the US tougher capitalism that are just foster people get fired and there's A. There's a much much bigger than usual federal support in in Europe. It's much more trying to keep workers paid with the companies that they're the AD and broadly the European response. I think is one that is more likely to keep people getting their salaries getting income in the short term but it also has some interesting consequences so for example in the United Kingdom where we do have this very generous support from the government for people keeping people on payroll actually those companies whether it's in the retail sector that desperately trying to attract new workers and hire people to do all the surge in demand for home delivery of finding it quite hard to get workers right now or stay with me when we come back. I'm going to ask our panel. How exactly do we start the economy? And what do the political effects of all this look like when we come back you're about to fees? Keel? O.`Neil like you've never seen him before. This is show about my life just because I have more than the average guy doesn't mean I'm better than the average guy. Jack like all new Thursdays at nine on TNT as the corona virus pandemic has four schools across the country to close teachers are scrambling to get their curriculum and their students online. I'm poppy harlow in this week. On boss files. I talked to two leaders who are supporting those teachers students and their parents during this crisis Russia Johnny the founder and CEO of girls who code and Joe Holland the CEO of teachers pay teachers. They talk to me about how their organizations are working to help the most vulnerable students during this uncertain time. You can listen to the latest episode boss Files. Wherever you get your podcasts. And we are back with Paul Krugman Zanny Minton beddoes and Ian Bremmer. I should note. Paul Krugman has a new book out arguing with zombies Ball let me get. Let's get back to this issue. Zante pointed out. Which is that when you we start the economy. It's not going to start up in full steam I WANNA ask a different part of that. Which is President? Trump clearly wants to restart. The economy wants to get the United States back to work What is the danger if it starts up too early after all the one does understand His concern which is you know. There's a cost a huge cost to the economy being paralyzed this way Is there a danger that we start up too soon? And what happens then is a huge danger. I mean the We we really need a period of extreme locked down to make sure that this thing has that that we've we've really brought the pandemic to an end and I keep on seeing people saying that. Economists WANT THE ECONOMY TO RESTART. That's actually not true. The overwhelming consensus of serious. Economists is that That you want to wait. I bet it or on the side of staying shutdown longer rather than to herb by starting up too soon. We even have some evidence in nineteen eighteen. Nineteen flu pandemic of there was actual. There was social distancing. Were many of the policies that we're doing now. They vary quite a lot among cities and the cities that That did more social distancing and stayed with it not only had much lower death rates actually did better economically so everything renowned says this is not the time to worry about. Gdp don't worry about dollars. We need provide disastrous if we provide aid to people who are not getting incomes and that and that makes it tolerable and we can go on for. We need to go on as long as it takes the trying to get things started because you want air by wants a return to the life. We had but trying to do that. Prematurely is a recipe not just for a lot more people dying but also a recipe for actually a much longer economic slump in what we're seeing in China. I think we lost you. Now let me ask you ZANU. What we're seeing in. China is the return of the economy after a period of a very drastic and dramatic lockdown. I is that a hopeful sign. Because if you look at the way. China is is Reopening its economy. It does seem to suggest that once you get this under control and the numbers of new cases of very small you can start up again. It is although I would caution. That is quite early days in China and there are a you know that there was a an increase in infections that came from people returning from abroad and so they they shut the country to foreigners in particular and I would point to Singapore which is really handled this in an exemplary manner but Singapore has actually been fighting increase lockdown. It's actually brought in October which it hasn't really had before it was seeing cases increasing and I don't think it's going to be binary I think at some point we. We all want to have to weigh the costs of keeping the economy. Shot Down with the impact on lives saved and the P- the panic. Of course right now. I completely agree with Paul. It's absolutely clear that the right thing to do is to lock down but over time. The cost of the lockdown going to increase and for some countries. It's just not really possible to do this. They won't have the resources to carry on doing this. And I think we're going to have to think or at ways to start bringing the economy back to life and I think one of the big differences between now and one thousand nine hundred and I read that very excited about the US. Then we have technology in a way that we didn't then. And I think one of the kind of under focused on areas of this is how we can harness technology not just technology to get this fast as possible to vaccine to a treatment but technology to trace people technology to see where people are. Let's use this huge infrastructure. We've got in terms of everybody having a cell phone in their hand. There are big issues with this all. We're going to be heading towards the surveillance state. Do we need to worry about invasion of privacy? But I think right now that stuff is outweighed by people's desire to know whether they how viruses spread to know whether they have had it to know whether they have seen the people who've had it and I think we'll see businesses re organize themselves so that you can have production lines with social distancing. We'll see service to firms reorganize themselves restaurants have much bigger space between tables. And will I hope use technology in a much much more dramatic way than we've used it now to know who's had the virus where there were hot spots where there's much less bit? Ian? Let me ask you about a bigger picture about this. And I'm sorry we had a little technical difficulty getting you on Which is China is now donating ventilators to New York? Talk about the competition for leadership that is coming out of this which China appearing to be at least more confident in the United States Essentially uninterested well of course on a couple of levels I mean even the Chinese are responsible for the original outbreak with all the travel and the cover up. The fact is their economy is going to be back to pretty much. One hundred percents at least on the supply side within the coming weeks while the Americans and Europeans are still shutdown. They've got the medical supply chain. They have the excess medical personnel. They have the ability to learn some lessons from when the Americans gave humanitarian aid. After pre-crisis lessens the Americans appear to have forgotten. And you know I certainly believe that the Americans are capable of implementing real walk downs and listening to authority with clearly capable of putting a lot of money into our economy eight for relief and restart as we need it. We have completely abdicated. Leadership internationally for the developing world. That'll most need it for our allies like in Europe that we're not coordinating with and the Chinese smell opportunity here. They recognize that the global order will look very different coming out of this crisis than it did going in and we really need to be paying attention to what Beijing is doing right now. Paul let me ask you a quick question. We only have a few. We have about forty five seconds. One thing that worries me but all of us on this Battleline noticed have been to graduate school in social science the days very bad That is coming out. Countries testing differently Is there a danger that we are making predictions on the basis of very very incomplete data? Here especially because everything moves so fast we knew that exponential growth and in the disease but also even on the economic thing. We're now at the point where you know. Monthly economic data are already so far out of date that they're useless and so even really are a weekly figures which are not the right numbers but we were doing what we can't so Jut Look just three weeks ago. People I was in contact with people who were debating whether we needed a any sort of major economic response. It didn't do. We really have an economic emergency into justifies a large package. Unbelievable now right now. We're probably fifteen million jobs down while we were just getting this thing together. So We are it. Turns OUT THAT WE HAVE WE? We're not prepared. Not just for something of this magnitude but we're not prepared for something of this speed And this is a big problem. Thank you all we will. We will come back to you because this isn't going away and thanks in particular next on. Gps always leader Viktor. Orban's has used the corona virus crisis to grab all but absolute power. He was given the POW this week to rule by presidential decree. I'll tell you all about it when we come back. I'm Tony Shibani and I'm Aubrey Edwards. And we've got brandy roads on a w unrestricted dusty. I tell cody. Hey there's this new girl she's really cool. You should check her out Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah and. It was right over his head. Listen and subscribe to eighty w unrestricted four free. Wherever you your podcast. Just don't worry to face the world on my own Tracy. Morgan is back. You are low rough around the edges. Tiffany haddish's back if we support one another everything's GonNa be okay the last. Og Only Tuesdays at ten thirty nine thirty central on TBS. Donald Trump's US complaints over what he terms fake news which is really news. He doesn't like haven't gone away during the corona virus crisis but one leader has taken it farther much farther. A new law in hungry calls for up to five years in jail for publishing so called fake news related to corona and that is just a minor part of a major measure that will give prime minister. Viktor ultimate power. The ability to rule by decree. His personal whims will have no checks no balances. What will this mean for Hungary? Michael League nutty is the president of the Central European University George Source funston funded institution founded in Hungary. That was expelled by Auburn. Last year and Valerie Hopkins is a budapest-based Washington correspondent for the Financial Times. Michael let me ask you. How did we get here? This is a European country that is essentially slade from what looked like a functioning liberal democracy to something very different of Farid. This began ten years ago when he won power in twenty ten the muzzle depress a cut back on the autonomy of the courts and he came after our free institutions Central European University. Now this seems to me a culmination of Pattern that's developed over ten years and it's developed frankly because the European Union didn't stop because Successive American administrations didn't stop him. And because China and Russia the authoritarian states were only too happy to welcome another authoritarian under their camp. So it's a it's a story of him getting away with stuff but it's also a story of him being simply continuous with what he's been doing since twenty ten fascinating twenty Dan. Of course he wins the election because his His opponent The prime minister said something In in He made a gaffe on TV Valerie let me ask you about this. The judiciary hungry seemed independent The press seemed to be a thriving. Free press what did he do in both cases to neuter them? Well thank you very much for having me personally and I think it's important to know that it's if anybody knows how dangerous and economic crisis is it's Victorian so he has as Michaelson. He swept into power and twenty ten after an economic crash. And I think now. This law is geared towards preventing a similar loss of power and over the course of the last decade. He's really focused on first and rewriting the constitution amending times and then stacking the institutions like the Constitutional Court and also regulatory bodies with people loyal. To him I mean most Hungarians will tell you that actually. The lower levels of the judiciary are still fine and many of them will still make good decisions. But it's the highest levels that that we have to be worried about regarding the press. There's been a real trend of powerful all the guards tied to the government coming in taking profitable interesting independent media outlets buying a majority stake in them and then eventually turning them into government propaganda mouthpieces that was announced that one of the most important to media outlets that still independent. There are still a number of very brave and very wonderful. Local journalists working very hard to their job here was bought by a businessman close to the government. He bought a controlling stake in the paper. So it's very concerning the not happen to the day after this law passed and one of the thing. Is that a November twenty eighteen five hundred media outlets who had systematically been targeted and sort of had their editorial policies effected shall we say donated themselves for three to a foundation. That's now run and managed by ORB on loyalists and they will publish identical news. About how great the government is again. Michael describe what What some Hungarians Call. A Victory Peacock dance though this shows. You how savvy he is and that you know when he's confronted sometimes digs one step too far. He backs off. Well the optimistic view of this suspension of all a parliamentary rule and constitutional rule is that he he he can trade this back if he gets external pressure. But I actually think this is a peacock dance that In which is not dancing back. I think he's consolidating power And is going to be indifferent to what the European Union says was. I think the European Union the French. The Germans are so deep in their own crises that they're not going to mind that Basically one European state has turned into a single party state in front of their eyes and I think president trump has been Positively Friendly Orban for two years. So Orban's peacock dance used to depend on counter-pressure counter pressure from the franchise from the Germans or from the Americans. He doesn't need to do the Peacock. Dance he just keeps running. And that it seems to me is very important here You can't see what's happening in Hungary. Apart from a basic abdication of The defense of the basic principles of European Democratic Freedom Right across the European Union and and also the retreat of America from any role in defending democracy overseas Valerie what is this? Wouldn't Hungarians look at this and think because you know as often happens in parliamentary systems? It seems to me that Orban has about thirty percent of the population solidly behind him. Maybe another ten percent deal. You know somewhat supportive. But it's not a vast majority and so what are. What are all these Hungarians? Who are uneasy with all of this. What are they saying? What are they doing? Well like many leaders now in the corner crisis has experienced a bump in his popularity but it's very unclear how long it will last you know before coming out with an economic package. The government already started proposing laws. That have nothing to do with grown virus like Or combating the virus. Making it illegal to change once gender identity or something. I think most ordinary Hungarians are incredibly worried about the very poor health system here and the very poor economic measures that may be taken. I mean the. The Prime Minister has announced that there won't be any special measures other than three months of unemployment for people so I think they're very very scared. About what their economic future will entail and very very worried about their own personal safety and security When it comes to the health system I think it's the measures are popular but you know. The opposition in Hungary has been quite fragmented now for so many years and in addition to being able to rewrite the laws. The government has changed the the electoral maps of the country. Making making it more and more difficult for for the opposition to come back however in the local elections in October ten out of twenty. Three of the major cities were won by the opposition. And it's possible that that eventually they may be able to to make a comeback but but it will be ever harder with the new laws imposed especially now a new proposal that was announced yesterday that will make all parties give half of their funding to a special Corona Virus Fund administered centrally. My Lemme ask you very quickly. We have thirty seconds but the European Union provides six percent of Hungary's GDP. Some years couldn't just say. Stop this free if only I mean. That's clearly the most important lever but the European Union. I think is so weak that they fear if bay. Apply that Lever Hungry or walk. We're hungry would walk to is not clear so I think it's a lever. That should be but they certainly have had many occasions and what they could wrote that hammer down and having done so freed and this is just I think a sign of the extraordinary fragmenting impact of the corona virus on the on European politics on the capacity of European states to act together and act against what I think is a threat to the democratic values of the whole continent. Michael ignited very pleasure to have you on next on. Gps All these spring break will make it clear how difficult it is to lockdown America which is a country of three hundred and thirty million people. How about a country of one point? Three billion we will take you inside history's largest ever locked down when we come back. What does leadership look like in times of crisis? I'm poppy harlow for the next several weeks. My show boss files is going to bring you. Conversations with business leaders who are trying to navigate the economic fallout of the corona virus pandemic in real time. We ask how. They're looking out for their employees. How they're planning for a future that will undoubtedly look very different for their business. Look for new episodes of this boss files special series every Thursday. I hope you'll join us with a no-holds-barred election right around the corner. Take a look at some of the most hard-fought presidential races throughout history the CNN original series race for the White House is bad for a brand new season Sundays at nine on March twenty four. The Prime Minister Narendra. Modi made a nationally televised address to tell Indian citizens that at midnight. Four hours from then. The Nation would be on lockdown for at least three weeks. It is the biggest lockdown ever ordered in history. Almost all of India's one point three billion people are subject to it. Sounds like many western nations. No there is a big difference and in order to help us understand that the Indian journalists park that joins me from Delhi. She's a Washington Post columnist. The the extraordinary nature of this lockdown giving people no time to prepare must've thrones India into which is already you know God Brits Line Functioning Anarchy. It must have made it pretty chaotic. I mean three chaotic would be an understatement. Win The prime minister announced to the nation effectively. Shut down the first instinct of the country was to be fearful but essentially applaud him and understand the inevitability of the decision as also the how extraordinarily difficult it was going to be but I think what people did not anticipate is not spaces that had been planned at all and what we saw erupt in the first. Seventy two hours after the lockdown was hundreds of thousands of poor people literally the cities that they're walking these are India's migrant workers the poorest of the estimated forty five million migrant workers we mean people who live elsewhere in villages come to the cities to walk that effectively daily wages because the prime minister's address did not make any sort of message about economic packages and economic rehabilitation when he announced the lockdown must phonics read. I walked with many of these men and women. They were poor men carrying five hundred children on their shoulders. Women carrying their belongings rolled into one sack on their heads. Little children on roads walking hundreds of miles and it's been called the largest mass exodus mass movement of peoples petition and it was starting to see the fact that millions of poor had not been factored in and just four dollars was given to the country shuts down so people are now worried so many men and women. I met why reporting this story said to me the poverty that we're going through the loss of jobs and loss of wages the absence of food. That's us before the corona virus. The the theory behind this which I which I think most people understand. What was that you needed to take very tough even brutal measures because and try to suppress of the via the virus which is still in low numbers in India because if it did spiral the Indian health care system is really one of the worst in the world right now. I think we got here and we got the logic and the country really did rally behind the prime minister when I made the announcement but I think there's a sense now that the execution of the planning has not been up to the mark and I don't mean to be an armchair analyst saying this I've been out on the ground reporting this story and we understand that this is one point. Eight billion the words of sort of most dodgers democracy that we're talking about. We understand how difficult this is but the fact. Is that the evidence on the ground tells you read? That should have been even earlier. Be The government should have given itself time to plan for the most vulnerable Indian people just to give your viewers a sense about two hundred and fifty million. Indians live below the poverty line and just imagine relation to the United States entire population forty five million as I said a transient workers daily waiters and ninety two million Indian homes. Households actually live in one room. So when you tell these household stay at home. What are you really saying to them? So the challenge before India right now. Is that the socio economic crisis. The spectrum of starvation. The very real fear of Anglo Dutch does not become a big crisis than the krona virus infection. We understand the logic of the lockdown. We just wish citizens and reporters covering the story that the governor given itself much more time to plan it better. Keeping most vulnerable are most impoverished citizens in mind finally tell me how this impacted mody and his his kind of leadership style because last night he called for a kind of national PD period of Faulk of darkness and the lighting of Lamps What is it? What has he turned us into. These great skill is return. Every disruptive moment in politics are into a test of patriotism. That is how he handle de-modernisation which is I was considered one of his biggest mistakes when he swiftly took a more than eighty percent of India's cash out of circulation the locked up is not seen as a whimsical decision for him but in many quarters to seen as an implant decision when he rushed so without giving the government enough time has been saying for planning planning probably Dot said. Moody does have a kind of death lawn different advantage almost and he's managed to convert this moment also into sort of test about whether you're standing with India or against India. And the other thing that's happened that does enable and it's horrible to say at this point but it's true it enables the BJP is a Hindutva. Politics is totally percent of India's confirmed cases. According to officials are linked to a religious congregations of an Orthodox Sunni Muslim group called Jemaah more than one thousand of confirmed cases in have gone to this inside politics at this point. I it's got back to. That's another very important argument. Sorry I B- unless you thank you so much. Thank you next on. Gps Can Polish come together like our scientists to my book of the week is a terrific story of a courageous leader who took his country from depression and despair to hope and recovery. No it's not a fictional story but rather a great history of Franklin Delano Roosevelt's first hundred days Jonathan alter the defining moment will give you a rich sense of what great leadership actually looks like and now a last look at some good news across the world. Scientists us have been busy working together across borders across oceans across time zones to fight cove in nineteen to build an antibody test or develop a vaccine but the impact of the diseases felt far beyond hospitals and doctors offices and so- technologists are stepping in to fill the gap as the virus spreads Italian Australian-german mobile operators aggregated cellphone data to track uses collective movements from hot spots in the US. The World's fastest supercomputer. Ibm Summit was put to Work Screaming. Eight thousand molecular compounds to identify the seventy-seven most likely to block with nineteen infections. This process which would have taken months on a normal computer allowed researchers to narrow the scope of their research with just a few days now the newly narrowed list of drugs can be studied by scientists around the world and in the tech savvy nation of Estonia to technology companies. Held a hacker thon last month. More than one thousand three hundred people in Twenty countries worked together for forty eight hours to develop digital solutions to the many problems created by the crisis to cut through the swirl of information and misinformation. There's an artificial intelligence bought to answer questions about the viruses spread based on reliable sources like the World Health Organization and the Estonian Health Board for sick people wondering if they should get a desktop. Go to the hospital. There's an APP to help. Track your symptoms compare them to the prevalence of covered nineteen in your neighborhood and help you. Assess your risk first hacker. Thon was so successful. The Estonian companies are helping organize a global on this coming week. If you have an idea go to the global hack DOT COM to register. Maybe all this global collaboration can inspire politicians to follow the examples being set by private citizens working together across national borders against a common foe. Thank you to all of you for being part of my program this week. I'll see you next week.

United States government China India European Union Hungary prime minister Paul Krugman Zanny Minton coma Europe America Donald Trump Orban Paul Krugman President Italy Paul Krugman Ian Bremmer