36 Burst results for "UBS"
Fresh update on "ubs" discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"We're going to drive operating margins of to double digits. We're going to balance revenue growth and we're going to improve our asset intensity and ROIC of 200 basis points overall drive a total shareholder return of 18 to 22%. That was FedEx that you Raj subramania and speaking to CNBC ahead of the company's first investor day in a decade, but despite a double digit growth forecast, a stock lost over two and a half percent today. So it's FedEx ready to deliver on its aggressive goals. And we were just talking in the first block of the show about giving forecasts for the rest of the year and how dangerous that is. And Tim brings up a very good point as it relates to FedEx Tim and what would that be? Well, in their first Analyst Day in over a decade, they're going to give you not just a quarter outlook for next quarter and difficult times. Maybe not even the end of 2022. They're going to give you a three year EPS guide, which is going to grow between 14 and 19% on a cagr basis. Leave you with EPS of around 30 to $35 in 2025. I mean, that's great stuff except for the fact that nobody can tell us what's going on. And this is about a company that's trying to establish credibility. And frankly, hasn't been able to forecast their business in the past. So I'd rather hear CAPEX trends in free cash flow trends because for FedEx, I think those are more important. Yeah, I think part of it is not a great day for industrial. So we'll give them a little bit more. Okay. But as Tim said, I mean, maybe it's great for them to have corporate planning out several years. It probably is that makes sense, but this is a company that we talked about last week over promise and under deliver. Last they seem to put out very good guidance above the consent, the bottom of the range was above consensus. But, you know, your PEs low double digits. The bar is not high. Why, why say we can jump over a bar that's so much higher. I don't really get it. It's a new CEO, but he's not new to the company. Establishing credibility, I think, is super important, a three year target right now just seems, I don't know why they need to do it, but I mean, it will be fantastically cheap if they reach those numbers. I mean, they had every reason to just say they're going to meet estimates, right? Analysts in large part, they like the stock. Most people have a buy rating or the equivalent on the street. So to give guidance that is above what the analysts thought, why bother even doing that for just this year. Guys back. Yeah, I'm sorry, man. I'm sorry everyone. Why? That's a great question. In this environment, there's no reason, but they had announced this. So I have to do something. But hidden in that operating margin of 10%, that sounds great except that I would have rather them said, look, we're trying to get express margins, express being half their revenue, which is currently about 8.2%, north of 10%. And then we're going to build from there. So that doesn't excite me that much because the blending operating margin right now is about 9.3%. For me, that's my takeaway. I think that's what disappointed the street amongst other things. With all that said, UBS just put a $350 price target on it for the reasons that everybody just stated. Valuation is compelling, but that has not been a great reason to own the stock. Quick grass out. I think that they just throw out this guidance because no one's ever going to call them out and if circumstances change if the environment changes, they could just rehash and pull back their guidance. But to guys point, the stock is down 10% year to date. It's rallied 6 and a half percent in the last month. It is crushing UPS on a relative basis. So whatever they're saying, investors are buying in the street likes. Whether it's right or wrong, it's white boarding it in front of the UPS and eating its lunch for the previous year. And again, because it's a much more efficient company. Anyway, a.
Credit Suisse chairman resigns after internal investigation
"The the chairman chairman of of Credit Credit Suisse Suisse resigned resigned after after an an investigation investigation reportedly reportedly finds finds he he violated violated covert covert quarantine quarantine rules rules without without elaborating elaborating Antonio Antonio Horta Horta Osorio Osorio said said in in a a statement statement I I regret regret a a number number of of my my personal personal actions actions have have led led to to difficulties difficulties for for the the bank bank and and compromise compromise my my ability ability to to represent represent the the bank bank Swiss Swiss media media reports reports he he violated violated quarantine quarantine rules rules including including traveling traveling to to Britain Britain in in December December and and to to the the Wimbledon Wimbledon tennis tennis tournament tournament over over the the summer summer a a spokesman spokesman for for the the local local prosecutor's prosecutor's office office in in Switzerland Switzerland confirmed confirmed it it had had received received a a notice notice from from the the former former CEO CEO that that he he might might have have breached breached code code rules rules and and it it was was in in the the process process of of examining examining it it axle axle Leman Leman a a Swiss Swiss national national and and former former executive executive at at rival rival bank bank UBS UBS who who joined joined the the Credit Credit Suisse Suisse boarded boarded October October will will take take over over as as chairman chairman I'm I'm Julie Julie Walker Walker
Shippers prepare for another pandemic crush of holiday gifts
"The US postal service is gearing up for another holiday question says this year it's ready last year's holiday season was far from the most wonderful time of the year for the US postal service we weren't prepared for that this year we know what to expect Stephen Dharti spokesman for the U. S. B. F. says they're hiring forty thousand workers and have extra mail facilities and sorting machines now there is no time for us like Christmas the holidays it's it's our season we've we've done it now for two hundred forty five years we're ready for this year UBS fed ex also say they're hiring workers overall nearly three point four billion parcels are expected to criss cross the country this holiday season according to ship matrix I'm Julie Walker
Flames spoil opening of Islanders' new arena with 5-2 win
"The flames got two goals from Andrew Mongia pani on their way to a five two win to spoil the islanders first game at UBS arena Brad Richards and open the scoring for Calgary with the first ever goal of the aisles new home the flames jumped out to a three one lead in the second New York made a push in the third but Calgary put it away with two empty net goals Brock Nelson scored both New York goals making him the first Islander to score UBS the wind makes three out of four for the flames New York has lost five in a row I'm well you guys
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Thinkers in finance. Take you beyond the numbers in height right to the heart of the big issues of the day. Today we're off to the fair basel to be more specific which is making a much anticipated. Return this week as well as gauging. What the appetites themes in conversations might be on the floor of the fair itself on the program. We're also going to take timely. Dip into ubs basel's jointly published mid year review resilience in the dealer sector authored by the renowned cultural economist. And friend of this program don't declare mckendry in the lead up to basel's returned the survey presents and analysis of the global dealer sector in first half of the year amidst he continued challenges of the pandemic. The analysis is based on responses from over seven hundred dealers operating in art and antiques markets in more than fifty regions or countries. It also integrates fresh insights from a survey of five hundred high net worth collectors across five key markets before we hear from ubs global wealth management's chief economist on themes like the role of sustainability collected engagement market resilience and attitudes around the digital realm. Let's start with a quick thought on what art basel itself might have in store for. Attendees this week and maybe a reflection or to also on just what we've been missing over the last eighteen months or so during various lockdowns and limits on fares and travel joining nato ponder. Those questions is robert bound monocle senior editor and a man who seen quite a lot of fairs in his time robot bound. Can i describe you as a veteran tender in a polite way. Just did yeah. You're saying of being around. What can we expect art. Basel returns kind of the end of the week. And it's very exciting for a lot of market watchers and so forth. But i guess maybe give sense given. You've attended art basel often and lots of other fairs. What have we been missing over the last kind of eighteen months. So that physical moment on we've be missing. Getting eyeballs engage with the paint with sculpture with wonderful works of art. Those physical meetings with gareth with friends with dealers with curator so much businesses done that is not art market business. Not the sort of top line of commercial galleries. Of course a little of that will be done next week. I'm sure basel looking forward to a profitable fair. But i think most of all all of us are kind of wishing for a fair. That's sort of profit on a bit more of a sort of pasta sense right. We want to meet the people. We've missed and this is the real the first big deal fair. That's gonna come back physically there. Hong kong iteration kind of came back in the in the spring Which was good but it had these kind of famous ghost booths where people kind of flu in there that works but not their staff as a bit of a strange one. This is the first one. It'll be back as it kind of real deal. I think you know the the market and curator's and all sorts of different sort of spokes of the wheel just super excited. I'm rob how do you think then fares go about the job. Which i suppose is kind of important of reclaiming that primacy if you like we know about the shift to digital. It's been expedient it makes sense we understand it but how defers go about. Doing that is about the works. They show ken. They rely on people's joyous returns..
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"We're even collecting rainwater off the roof of the building which is going into massive cisterns which will ultimately build the ice that the players are skating on in the arena for the hockey team so to that level of detail is what it requires and we've so far passed every test from every environmentalists. That have have come in and take a look at our operation and we're very proud of that but but this is the first step so we are lovie g zero point one. We haven't got one point. Oh yet and so. We will continue to integrate and build and hopefully costs come down and every other developer of any major sports entertainment. Venue in the world is going to follow our playbook. Yeah exactly how great to be creating the playbook as well as the building at the same time. Let me come back to you on this point about community. Because it's really struck me from what you've both said about how important that is to make something the the community and enjoy can celebrate. Be proud of and you eliminate those friction points you've described. Tell us a bit more about how the community play here works. I know commitments for things like contracting spent a goto partnering with minority and female owned businesses locally. There's clearly massive shot in the arm for the local economy and there's the forty-three foundation and more there are so many leads. It seems to the the such depth to that commitment to the local community must be very proud of that. Yeah proud of who say something that we want to continue to build upon over the time of our relationship. We're going to be in this building for twenty years as an absolute minimum and we have a lot of responsibility that comes with that. So in addition to the sustainability pace which was hugely important for us another key part was ubs arenas commitment to helping elmont and the surrounding communities way radi looking organizationally how we will work with the community in order to provide as much of a positive impacts that we can. I think around the time that the building was constructed there was a commitment the ofi grape would work with organizations and elected officials to feel at least thirty percent of jobs with local residents and they were also the commitments around minority businesses female owns which is great. But i think the place where we can really step in. Ubs where we can kind of have the greatest input is where we look at re-skilling within high schools. All with young adults. So we have programs that we've been running for years such as the keys to your future campaign which is a digital curriculum. That's currently wrong with high school students for career and college readiness. So how can we work to put that in place within the elmont community and also part of the project includes a community center so again how that can be a piece where we're offering jobs but we're actually also offering upward mobility for the local residents will offering greater opportunity. And i think that that's a radio kapot for us and also we can offer financial education along the way which is something that we're passionate about dunk of me..
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"An i feel that these are refreshing commitments. When we think about sustainability and health and wellbeing and something that we're not haven't traditionally saying in that arena space. So i really feel that the venues leading the way there is. Such an astonishingly was the holistic approach to sustainability as you said from the smallest item of food stuff and packaging to the big picture with amazing commitments on mass transit and engagement with the local community. And to that point. Dan if i can bring you back in here. How much of that is something which we think is redefining. The broader business of arena development. If we look over jeez work all around the world and indeed all the projects on which where you're engaged is it becoming the case now thankfully that all projects need to at the very least look to if not push the envelope as much as this amazing innovative projects to be more joined up in how they think about sustainability in how they look to look off the local community. Is that something. You're seeing across the board now. I don't know if other developers are feeling the same pressured to follow that path. But it's one of the core pillars of lovie g. and has been since day one. Tim my wicky our our founder. he's incredibly passionate about climate change and spreading the word. And so it's not mutually exclusive to to build an arena and be sustainable. You should be able to do both at the same time interchange. Wait there are some additional costs that come up and you know for seattle. For example changing over the entire building from gas to electric was a pretty significant undertaking building solar farms. The the fact that we're sourcing all of our electricity and and the new york arena from wind. Power isn't an easy thing to accomplish and italy's talked about it a little bit in terms of delaware. North were also using bamboo plates and flatware for guests in the only place that will have actual china's in the high end clubs which is only a handful within the building. I mean we've been thinking about like like meet right one of the largest contributors to climate change is methane gas coming from farming of animals. And so we're thinking of alternatives in terms of potential partnerships that we have with impossible and their plant-based meets to put into our buildings not exclusively but meaning like giving fans more options to eat those types of things and to the point of requiring all of the teams that play in the building and the artists that play in the building music artists to offset their carbon output from transportation and everything and buying offsetting credits before they even played in the building. So we think that this isn't a fad or or this. Isn't you know something that's temporary. This is how this is the should be a basic expectation from fans when they come see a building is that they have a great experience and that we thought about removing those friction points and that the building is not a negative on the community and on the environment. We are building model right now. There is no. There's no case. Study for us to play off of our playbook. We are creating it as we go so we are trying to establish relationships with the smartest people in the industry in opening our doors to every major environmentalist. Who wants to take a pot shot at us in terms of what we're doing and whether or not it's good enough i mean you know..
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Make sure that that has a positive impact so i think the other things that struck us in terms of the way the iv j. in the ups arena management team have worked is for example they've worked with. Gps satellite apps and navigation apps to work out roots that remove all of the smaller local straits out of navigation so that the local community doesn't get disrupted also really been heavily involved in mass transit and the support for electric vehicles so ubs arena will host the first long island or outright station. That's been built for forty five years so as we know infrastructure infrastructure projects within the us or a super hot topic at the moment and it's a pretty significant achievement to get that transport infrastructure put in place for the venue that'll serbia thousands electric charging stations on parking lots and then designated areas for share. And they look to shuttle services from local stations so i think really having this approach where where encouraging people to take mass transit. We're encouraging electric vehicles. Where we can and just really trying to minimize the disruption. The local community might feel by funneling traffic out of the smallest streets and then the other radio important thing. Once you've got to the venue. What's the experience going to be like when with. Also what's the impact of eighteen and a half thousand people when they arrive in a venue. The hospitality partner delaware north has made lots of commitments around sustainability and being apartment. That really looking at how they source and run the operations onsite. So we've got a commitment. The seventy five percent of the ingredients that will go into the food that's produced on site will be soest seasonally and also within a three hundred mile radius of the arena so from farms and suppliers in the surrounding counties. So i think that's radi positive. An aside i've to the welfare and the quality of products that are going to be available in sight so a commitment sauce. Usda organic where possible the hundred percent of eggs will be from katri hens. That seafood will have a sustainable food. Writing and the animal protein will be antiquated home fray and grass fed so i think these commitments when we think of the arena. It's highly commercial mass market venue..
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"It will be the most sustainable arena in the region and also at the time it's been developed. Lots of new. Kobe protocols have been put in place so the engineers are actually leading in that space. And i think done can probably talk more to that but it's just giving us a great opportunity to support new york when it needed it. The most one of the things that i find very striking from actually both viewer your so far is the importance of a truly collaborative approach. And i guess that involves all sorts of stakeholders doesn't it's not just the franchise or the sponsors investors developers but critically and lee spoke to this. It's about the fans and delivering an experience for them. What are the tricks of the trade in terms of how. Vga approaches projects. Dan in ensuring that the fans stay right at the heart of the plan. Yeah great question. First of all every decision you make is from the perspective of fan. I mean we're all fans i right. We started our lives cheering for a team of some kind we didn't start out of the womb building arenas we're all fans i whether it's fans sports or phase of music. I think every time we walk into a facility we recognize some of those friction points that are necessary to building a better fan experience and so every decision that we made. We made sure to do this on. Ubs arena climate pledge arena seattle every every rena that we're building that's a very critical question. That's literally asking every meeting that i. I've sat in over the last three years in the construction process of any of our buildings is is that and i'll give you an example. I mean you know one of the things that we talked about very early on his. You know again. If you look at the fan journey and it's how do they get to the arena. Whether that's mass transit is that through their own cars is that through rideshare. Whatever those things are so. I don't make that process. Great how do they get into the arena faster. How did they find their seats. How do they find merchandise faster. How do they navigate concessions..
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Welcome to the program and thanks to you both for tearing yourselves away from. I'm sure what else sky high interest talk to us today. I have so many questions for you both actually about this project as we countdown towards the opening later this year but before we talk about what the project sort of represents view. Can we get a little more detail about. Well i guess. What the project is dan griffiths. Let me start with you. Tell us a bit more about what. Ubs arena is all about. Give us the story. Yeah it's the next crown jewel Temple sports entertainment and arguably the most important entertainment city in the world so this project was born from a relationship that we had with the islanders ownership scott malkin and john lewis decky started about four and a half five years ago in earnest because islanders were the only nhl franchise in the national hockey league. That didn't have a permanent full-time home so they were looking to solve. That problem is one of the most loyal fan bases and all hockey and one of the most storied franchises and all of hockey and for them not to have a fulltime home was disappointing. So that was that was something that needed to be solved with the new ownership team that had bought the team and so we set out to help them build the next grade hockey facility. But in the meantime we recognize the importance of new york from a music standpoint. This is near and dear to the two founders of oh few group. Tim leiweke in irving as off in terms of their prowess in the music industry. And and all the things that they've accomplished their recognize it. The new york could absolutely use another music facility that was world class and so we set out to go build a facility that that nominally was made for music and built for hockey our tagline and so we found one of the last pieces of property that was wide open and the new york metropolitan area at belmont raceway and worked deal to build the arena on the long island side nassau county side of the city and then the parking. Lots are actually on the new york. City side on queens. So yes so. We've been often running ever since and building opens in november of twenty one. Here just right around the corner and ubs was wonderful enough to come along as our lead partner on this and put their name on it and annelies can give some more details as to why.
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Hello and welcome to the bulletin. Evs on one call twenty four each week.
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"I think the conversation really has shifted especially you know now is. We're starting to move a little bit out of the most intense periods of the crisis. At least here in you know in in canada and the us and other industrialized parts of the world. The conversation certainly has shifted more towards. How do we create a more resilient society so that we can withstand The next set of threats. I will just say kobe. Nineteen as challenging and as disruptive and just tragic as it has been in my estimation. It's actually really only a moderately severe pandemic. i think mother nature actually has a lot worse to deliver. And we've you know buckled under the pressure of this virus. We're going to need to be more resilient to withstand future threats that we will inevitably face perhaps finally karen. What does the future then hold for blue door. What are the limits to what blue dot can achieve as you see. You're right there in the driving seat is the only limit the limit on ambition of yourself and your colleagues is it about metaphorical or literal. Buying from others. Is it about citizen engagement that you were just talking about one imagines it could. Well pick next of all of those. Well i think with respect to the technology itself and the integration of deep subject matter expertise and our capabilities in terms of our global epidemic intelligence platform. I have no doubt that we are just scratching the surface. A i is really about machines mimicking human behavior and human judgement and as i said earlier we are dealing with very heterogeneous group of threats. I have no doubt from technology standpoint. We are going to be able to completely revolutionise how the world detects assesses and response to threats faster and more intelligently more efficiently and in a more coordinated manner than we've ever been able to before with respect to engaging audiences around the world. Were currently doing so today. At blue dot countries around the world and multiple branches of government between public health national defense intelligence agencies food animal health. You know there's an expanding engagement that we're having with government about smart policy decisions during public health emergencies and crises. But we're also expanding the conversation with the private sector. And i think that's really very very exciting for us because you know. Global enterprises can play an important role in public health as well by protecting their employees by protecting the wellbeing and safety of their customers. So there's an important role to play there. So i do really believe that with blue dog for eight years. We've been building. This intelligence platform in this foundation but cove and in many ways is just a walk in the world to the nature of this threat. And i think it's really accelerated the conversation about how can together be working to build more resilient businesses to be building more resilient society. So i'm incredibly excited about you. Know what the future holds for blue. God you know. I got into this space as a physician. There's always been a passage in the talmud that has resonated with me which is wherever saves a single life. It is considered as if they have saved the entire world. And the sentiment of that is that you know you have no idea what one person might be capable of. And how they may impact society and the world around them We certainly understood that in new ways with a pandemic because of course it only takes one person to to start a pandemic what. I'm really excited about with blue. Eyed is. This is an opportunity for us to be using data analytics technology not just to be impacting one life to be reaching millions of lives around the world in a way that is really helping us build a a safer and more secure and more prosperous world. Duck takamine con. Thank you so much for being with us today. And that brings us to the end of this edition of the bulletin with ubs setting the agenda each week here on monaco. Twenty four you can find out more about the work of dr cameron khan and his colleagues and partners in blue dot visit blue dot dot global now and for more about all the global visionaries in the ubs program head to ubs dot com and search global visionaries. In the meantime you can listen again to this. And every episode of the program including our archive of other brilliant visionaries at monaco dot com and across all good audio platforms the bulletin with ubs monocle twenty four..
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"ubs" Discussed on Mindy Diamond on Independence: A Podcast for Financial Advisors Considering Change
"Right for flexibility ripe for our clients in every way that we can manage more and do other things for them and tax estate and complicated planning issues all in house if we can do all those things and by the way they pay fifteen to twenty percent lesson fees because my grid is much higher here than it was at ubs our clients all not so they would come with us but just of the benefit of we shared our higher payout with the client while that's a powerful story so let's talk about the transition to a videon wealth solutions when you transition. The firm was called as a wealth and you made the move in september of two thousand nineteen. So what else did you look at before joining a videon and if you just described the business model out of videon and what your relationship is with them. Sure what i looked at. I wasn't interested in a big farm. If i was interested in a big farm it probably would have been a world wirehouse if i'd gone independent within a big firm. I didn't even talk to them. But i do know several people that went the the raymond james route. I understand that kind of inbetween. I had a very good friend in houston that we had done a lot together and he used honesty as his kind of backbone and wonderful man and he really was a good mentor. Through this transition process we came very close to teaming up together but in the end we looked at each other and said if. I don't know if sarah beth is coming and i don't know for sure. What assistance coming. I need to make sure. I have a team around me because if i walk out the door and it's me by myself and i was willing to do it dan. I need to make sure. I'm surrounded by a great team. A so that my clients do not get any less of service or attention than what they had. Previously so dynasty vary interested in. If i were starting my own shop probably would have gone that route now. That doesn't say anything negative about anyone else. Because i really didn't go looking around. Had a friend that our sons went to the same school played sports together and a mike and psyche tan and he was at a videon and he and his partner had been together fourteen years and they do very indepth planning a for very high net worth families mainly business owners entrepreneurs going through life changing events and i sat down with them and for years he'd be like why don't we do something together. Why don't we do something together. And i was like you know. I'm being patient. I want to see what happens here. We'll see what the teams thinking before do anything. And then the more. I waited and just did research and talk to psi. It was just a natural fit. So if i were starting a firm from scratch and say we were going out to get a dynasty or some backbone or what have you. It would have been the team that we have today so i didn't leave just to go independent. I left to merge our partnership together with science scott so we have a team of twelve total six assistance and we have six advisors now four partners on the team. And that's me and sarah than cy and scott bishop between all of those we have five. Cfp's to cpa's so it's just a very credential deep team but when you ask about a videon so it was s. T. a. wealth. There's no change control. It was just a evolution of the name along with the business that was started in two thousand and three. It's approximately three billion dollars of size. Our team individually manages nine hundred and twenty five million dollars of that and when we look at the firm basically it's highly collaborative so even though there's upwards of close to twenty advisors every one of these advisers at any point they have someone on another team that specializes in certain issue. They can come up with their own agreements a to to work together with and to go through a situations with a fee sharing way but we also have to. Jd's in house a we have three cf as in house one phd. So there is an investment group. There's the planning group. It's basically a family office atmosphere for our clients in so it again. Our team is focused mainly on the business owners the entrepreneurs going through life changing events and guiding them through that but videon is a very collaborative independent firm individual employee owned no outside influence whatsoever three locations in houston but all in texas obviously but again i wanted small. I wanted lack of headwinds to do business. I wanted to centralize compliance and more than anything. I wanted a highly credential team to handle all these situations for families. Yeah sounds like you find the idea match. And did you grapple at all or were you concerned about having seemingly less control in joining a firm versus in even having your own brand like that kind of come on your radar screen or were able to get over that because of his other gains is able to get over it. Because i knew friends that were at the weekly bible. Study with the guys at videon. I knew the leadership after meeting them. I knew it's a small enough firm that you know the culture very quickly and aside and scott are here and they are happy knowing that where they as far as what they're looking for and deliverables and culture. I knew once. I met the leadership here that this was the right fit again. I was not at the point. It's one thing if you asked me. If your entire brown harris group of ubs was leaving together what would you have done. I'm not so sure what that would look like. But i just knew that. The culture here like i said earlier if i were starting a farm from scratch the culture here was exactly what i would built and that is one. That is not of competitiveness against one another. It's collaboration we have two meetings a year as a fireman. I think there might be ten minutes in each minute. Spent on financials. It's highly clientcentric. Highly advisor centric. And that is where the vast difference comes from culture here to where i was previously. Yeah that makes sense. And how about talking about your transition. So how much of your business moved over. And because of the fracturing of the team had that impact portability or the overall experience. Well i mean. There's no question that the risk were increased in our situation pen to paper. I would say there's probably less than ten families that have not come over that we desired that we wanted to come over. They fit the business model that we wanted to a part of our team. I think there's just a gap there of articulating. Really what we have to offer and also being a twenty year client of team that half the team is still there. So it's a little easier in that situation versus a random adviser calling out of the blue sand have inherited your account a we have noticed. I mean we've had you know fifteen million dollars in the last week come over from ubs but it was twenty months later. So what i will say is probably around seventy percent of the assets but were right now giving the fracture given everything that we've done we're at ninety percent of where we were on our share of revenues. So i know a lot of people come on and they're like hey we're a hundred and twenty percent. Are we done this. We've done that if you had told me. Twenty months ago. Today i started that you had had the culture. You have the balanced life. You have the team around you that you really could not hand pick. If you tried and you'd be at ninety percent. I would sign on that all day long so our referrals are much bigger than three. Cpa's that were clients before all came with us. We're getting a lot more share of wallet. We add clients that money at vanguard fidelity schwab in all of a sudden the extra five millions coming over here so we knew it would play out over time but i feel very blessed and fortunate to be at where we are and if we look at where we are as a team nine hundred twenty five and that's just under six.
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Bbs twenty four each week the sharpest minds and freshest thing because in finance take you beyond the numbers at height right on the big issues of the day today with the help of the new q. Three outlook from the ubs global wealth management cio. We're looking at the post covert economic recovery. Considering how fast it's happening and asking what it means for markets are panel from the cio. We'll be exploring ideas for growth income and protection and addressing key questions at the top of investors minds at the midpoint of twenty one against a backdrop of a first half that delivered faster-than-expected vaccine rollouts bigger than expected. Us fiscal stimulus higher-than-expected inflation and strong economic and corporate earnings growth. Let's start with karen. Ganesh strategists in the ubs global wealth management to cio. Karen i up. What do we anticipate that. The pace of the postcode economic recovery to be like. Well we think that the economy is undergoing a pretty rapids recovery in in twenty twenty one After the lockdown induced shocks in twenty twenty now of course that recovery is pretty uneven and the viruses continued to spread in in different locations around the world and that does leading to unscientific and team is and you lock danville manila to being imposed in different places but the overall patriots one of pretty rapid recovery in the global economy. Twenty twenty one..
"ubs" Discussed on Mindy Diamond on Independence: A Podcast for Financial Advisors Considering Change
"Is your whole team there. When we y'all four of us are still here still same advice we've given before you're going to get a different statement than you did before with a different name on it okay. Great and that was most of the conversations. We had a lot of clients who had worked with us for years congratulating. Us saying we're excited for you. Guys are small business owners. Knew exactly what we didn't say. Oh you're gonna love it. This is the best decision you've made when i left. Xyz firm and started my own firm. It was the best decision. And i would never go back so we're very happy for you guys in excited and so that's where it really feels like we are a family owned and operated business and our clients are family too and they've been that way for years. So what is the pitch if you will. What are the things that even with the benefit of hindsight now a year or more of hindsight what are the things you're able to do for clients now that you couldn't do while at ubs certainly pride ourselves on focusing on holistic planning and the fact that we really have true open architecture and we don't have to worry about selling away. I can advise on 401k. Assets for a client and i'm not getting worried about what the weyerhaeuser ubs would say when. I'm advising on that. We have cash management solutions and banking solutions to where i can go and look anywhere across the industry and see what is best in breed for clients and i don't have to be beholden to one bank. Because that's who i work for and so giving us. That flexibility in that open architecture makes a whole lot of sense and then adding some of those technology pieces. That i wouldn't be able to use if i was at a wirehouse because those wouldn't be approved if all i see something that i think makes a lot of sense from a tech stack and i think would be additive to our clients and our planning process. We can run the due. Diligence kick the tires and within a couple of weeks have it up and running in and fully integrated into our our planning. There's no way that would have been done at at our old firm. You know going back to your comment about open architecture. The ability to source alone at multiple different banks. That's amazing in fact whenever we talk with an adviser about the opportunity to do that. What true open architecture means to be able to shop alone across the street and create competition for.
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Let's start with our regular commentator on this team and a great friend of the show. Paul donovan pulls chief economist in ubs global wealth management. Thanks for being with us as ever pulled them in just a kickoff and i guess the first question here is even in an admittedly imperfect world. Why should lgbtq plus investors have to even think about investing differently from anyone else's seems a sad indictment of the times in which we live. Well it is. I'm afraid because if we look around the world today obviously in many many countries you don't have legal equality for the lgbtq plus community and even where you have legal equality. There isn't genuine social equality. There are still people in society who misguidedly feel that members of the queer community are somehow less than other people and that creates a series of problems a series of issues which means that members of the ldp tq plus live and work in a different environment to remember the straight community and as a result they have to think about their investments in a different way. Well yeah. I find that really interesting. And that's talk. Then paul about potentially power then. The impact of those investment decisions are made by the community and by their allies more. Broadly is it fair then to say that those choices are are more powerful precisely because of that context of of prejudice and off bias. I think potentially yes so one of the things that's been coming out in the research around. Investing an investment decisions by the lgbtq community is for example that a member of the queer community is less likely to have the capital to be an entrepreneur to start up their own business either because they have become alienated from their family and savvy. That's a very common occurrence. Disproportionately common for the coupons community and families traditionally big supporters of people. When they're entrepreneurs bill gates was helped helped by his parents for example. I mean that sort of thing does does play a role but also for various reasons members of the key plus community are less likely to own a home and owning your own home is a an asset of former security. That very often used securitise borrowing for a business investment. So it's harder for someone in the queer community to be an entrepreneur and that means that if there is a way that members of the community and allies can support through investment entrepreneurialism and the lgbtq community. There's a potential upside. They're both odyssey for the community but also for the investors as your your investing in an area which is otherwise somewhat capable deprive. I think that's really interesting. And i did want to ask you a bit more about the complexity of that family picture. And you mentioned there paul. I'm sure listeners will understand that. You know prejudice endures within families as well as as without but maybe they're not aware of how directly that bias can shape the financial future of those lgbtq plus people you mentioned about some of the ways that can benefit a bit more about the. How how sort of far reaching that family buyers can be in terms of shaping that long term horizon. This i think is really a very significant challenge so being where is relatively unusual as a form of prejudice. In in the sense that you can be a target for prejudice from within your own family and obviously generally with gender or race or ethnicity or religion. That's a lot less likely to be the case. Because other members of your family are likely to have similar experiences to you and this leads i think to really three or four areas where you can have some quite long term consequences so the first is we know for example that the chance of being homeless as a an lgbtq plus youth is about twice as high as if straight and so right out at the start of of your life there is then a risk of.
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Each week the sharpest minds and freshest thing is in finance take you beyond the numbers and high to the heart of the big issues of the day today. We're digging into the latest report in shifting asia series published by ubs global wealth management. The addition in the frame this week is titled the global engine of new ability and explores how asia is looking to grab pole position in the race for electric vehicles. Supremacy china is upping the ante and funneling vast amounts of investment into the av industry hotbed for innovation from batteries to autonomous driving software japan and korea to have entered the fray an pledging policy support and investment to become ev powerhouses. So what do the investment opportunities across the space. Look like. well we have with us today. Two of the co authors of the shifting asia report let's start with culbertson in the ubs wealth management cio co in terms of the shifting asia. Pieces really really fascinating pieces on the global engine of name abilities the this up her book just remind us what the shifting asia pieces are much what they are. What what did they do. What kind of insights today help you and your colleagues provide okay. Generally we look at their little bit similar to the long-term investment team series and they have a long Kind of investment horizon so the long-term investment seems theories is like they look out said years for the shifting asia. Timeframes bit shorter. It's we we look at trends. We think investors should be focused on over over a decade or ten to fifteen year outlook. So we typically focus on structural trends. That are very early phase of growth and sort of we we basically now how we think these trend these investment trends in fan out over a period of a decade or so so a lot of things policy driven a will police driven gives us a degree of confidence. The you know that it will actually unfold over this timeframe. So we have said degree of sort of i would say good visibility of You know for a short to medium term period so with focused on strunk true an industry trends that i mean investors should be paying attention to because are the clearly opportunities.
Streaming Services Are Booming Right Now
"Topic is one of my favorites streaming video. If you remember back in february i mentioned how streaming had grown during our stay at home. Twenty twenty with many homes pain for perhaps five or more services up from three before the pandemic while there's no slowdown in sight. That's according to motley fool. Contributor adam levy in a column you can find on tech dot. Usa today com. He reports that analysts had global financial firm. Ubs expect that americans will add fifty million net new video subscriptions this year. That's up from forty seven million increase in twenty twenty. You expect newer service to see. The most growth among those are disney plus and paramount plus which are expected to add eight million subscribers. Each each max. Discovery plus expected to add seven million subscribers.
Wall Street analysts on what to expect from Apple earnings
"The pre earnings financial analyst frenzy continues even analysts. That aren't that sold on apple shares long-term or all about anticipated december quarter numbers among them. Ubs analyst david vote apple insider had him issuing note monday wherein he raised his revenue and earnings per share expectations for the first quarter of fiscal year. Twenty twenty one. He had been looking for revenue of ninety eight point nine billion dollars on earnings per share of a buck thirty five. He is now looking revenue of one hundred six point nine billion dollars on earnings per share of one forty five. What's not to like would seem to be question. He thinks apple ship more iphones than he expected. He thinks the phones they sold had a higher average selling price than expected. He thinks max did better than the same quarter a year earlier and he is really just not into apple. Shares these got a hold rating on apple. Shares is a matter of fact and our price target of one hundred fifteen dollars other firms see apple beating expectations and they are in the apple. Shares take j. P. morgan melissa. Chatterjee please apple through reynaud from chapman to clients in it. He has the cupertino company back with another one of those buster beats when it comes to revenue expectations his appears to be the highest. He is looking for december revenue of one hundred ten billion dollars on earnings of one dollar and fifty six cents.
How Are Sales On The iPhone 12 lIneup Going?
"Power sales of the various models of iphone. Twelve going will never know for sure. But that won't keep the financial folks guessing. I'm sorry guesstimate philip. Elmer dewitt's apple three oh had ubs analyst. David vote telling tapping tale. Then again. he's jojo manappl- so maybe that's not surprising. Bottom line. he thinks. Iphone expectations might be a bit high for the current quarter. Thanks to ready availability of iphone. Twelve many and the standard iphone twelve and again the more expensive iphone. Twelve pro and iphone twelve pro max or both playing hard to get especially the twelve pro. Max quoting his note initial availability. Data highlights strong demand for the iphone. Twelve pro max. Version relative to the iphone twelve pro and the iphone eleven. Pro max last year shortly after. Launch pro max. Availability has exceeded three weeks. Similar to eleven pro max last year and modestly above the twelve. Pro he does point out. Though that the iphone twelve pro max did launch late so add that to the mix as for the perceived weakness on the lower end of the line vote wrote while potentially softer demand for the to skews does not indicate an earnings miss given the holiday selling season. Still to come get does suggest. Unit upside might be muted relative to investor expectations. Just a month ago and of course apple doesn't report unit numbers anymore so go crazy man go crazy. Votes on a neutral rating on apple shares. His price target on the shares is one hundred fifteen dollars spending a somewhat more positive take as j. p. morgan analyst samir chatterjee then again he's double plus good on apple so maybe that's not surprising. Another post from apple. Three dot o. Had chat chatman seeing similar trends as mr vote quoting his note. We find lead times for the twelve many and the twelve tracking lower than in prior weeks while lead times for the twelve pro and twelve pro. Max have been largely stable at roughly twenty four days while he thinks it's too early to know whether unit numbers will meet expectations. He doesn't expect changes. And i phone. Orders from apple for the supply chain thing so cool it on the mini and the twelve and ramp up production on the pro and pro max. Tragedy has an overweight rating on apple shares. His price target on the shares is one hundred fifty dollars.
Inside Uber's Push to Win California Ballot Race
"Opponents of a ballot measure, bankrolled by Uber lift, have questioned the use of uber hubs as voting locations in L. A county. This comes pretty close pretty close to buying a vote. Democratic Assemblyman Miguel Santiago from L. A says it's a conflict for people to cast votes at the location that's tied to a company with a proposition on the ballot. It doesn't make any sense. It would be like me running a full fledged campaign and having a voting center in sight of my campaign office, close to $200 million has been spent to push the ballot measure, which would keep drivers classified his independent contractors to uber UBS in Burbank and Redondo Beach are among the 800 voting locations in L. A county that opened the weekend before Election Day in
Ray Ecosystem with Ion Stoica
"So. What, other applications do you anticipate being built on top of Ray that have not been built yet? So I think that one excited I think sting is about engine that I love about. Of Platform which is general is that you can run on that platform. Wetlands, it was hard before because they for many deficiencies stems ran the same ought about. So these putting them together and I think that you know have these like. You know a lot of analogies like iphone ipad before the IPHONE smartphones you'll have different use cases or defendant capabilities which are embedded in defendant devices like UBS for getting direction as for. Maps and getting direction driving directions they will have Remember you know like a cameras digital cameras so you can have sleep. Utah this device for recording or You ambitiously ladders and seem like. Something that I on like bring goal of this guess at its go now you're an. Obligation on your device, and now you can build new obligation which can use. Like virtual reality you can put that in an indoor you know put together in in a game and UCONN. and. Some seemed like that which you are away at about was location because. Yes I. think that's one that actually did exciting in the big picture. So the example is I have in mind which I believe. Talk a little bit about Bobby was at. Embedding. Now you can have one system to runs. Hope almost the entire beckoned. And? Business logic last machine learning you can have say. Many companies don't run only one model on a number of modern Caesar backhands and then needed. To figure out which models are they're going to use how going to the request between this model. So for instance, if you look at the image and you may want to identify locates. License, plates like only have you know annual you can have a model which look at your image and Suzanne if the image. Has a kagyu identify Ikat only then you can look that. Defy. Something of that car, light? licensed. Licensed like that I if he's not a car, you don't need to do that. So that's an example, a very simple example of business logic that allows example business. each other, very useful cutting stunts. Some industries you need to provence I'm that. Relations in the you are going to make and to verify before you give an asset back that Z. Circulation Salamat. So that's you know that's another example because in. You know like like, for instance, say. One example it's about you make a decision on. Something like a mortgage. You apply for the mortgage and I'm a bank and I'm going to decide on that bondage and it turns out that if I deny you, you can ask me why denied I need to explain you the reason for that I need to make sure to tell you and to assure you that I'd be done denial because using Sam, say racial profiling what seemed like that right to check illegal. So then if I use them in and lovely model, a deep learning, they city hard explain what that is an has been made. So that's why but on the other hand if before I give you the asset I kind of. The asset to make sure that. Is. Not you know it's in. So to speak, it cannot be interpreted like being based on race or something like that which somehow the model had picked it up. then. That's one way to use a machine deep learning model, which I cannot explain in an obligation. We requires me by AG relation to met some rules and even be eight Boko explained that it was. I didn't use in my decision, some of the imports which are not against relations that. I think that's one. John Exciting sinks that I had so madding classic. settting obligation with developing D- obligation billing it on. And Platform
UBS Severs Ties With Some Wealthy Venezuelans Amid Sanctions
"Is severing ties with some Venezuelan clients as it Serves from the U. S. At the Trump Administration tighten sanctions on a country that's mired in a power struggle. Sources say The decision affects the number of accounts with links to Venezuela's government, or to Petroleos de Venezuela. A state owned oil company. That's a Bloomberg business. Flash.
Sasol shares climb more than 20.5%; Braskem shares fall 2.3%
"South Africa's Sasso is quite more than twenty and a half percent people familiar with the matter said the oil and chemical companies receive multiple offers for a stake in a Louisiana plant they said the suitors include LyondellBasell industries and a joint venture of chevron and Phillips sixty six Brazilian chemical company Braskem has fallen two point three percent after being cut to neutral from buy at UBS the firm side a thirty five percent gain in the ADRs underlying shares since mid may when the firm raised Braskem to body from
German government to bail Lufthansa out of bankruptcy
"Air France a bit of a conditional type of of bailout happening there And then a lot of discussions and of course. This has been going on for for a while. Would we see Berlin looking at some type of loan scheme investment in Lufthansa? A LOT OF PEOPLE. Also saying yeah. Governments have no part of this But of course it seems like something is going to go ahead. what What do we know yet could often intimate afternoon indeed? Yeah Lifthansa. They've they've got there. They've got their annual shareholder meeting today. And of course I mean it's it's an AGM in a shareholder meeting without shareholders. Because you know everyone has to watch it removes Anyway Long Story. Short like other airlines. Lufthansa is also fighting for its survival. government bailout looks. Uh looks likely well. It looks absolutely necessary to be honest. the figure we've hurt is around ten billion euros and of course the The controversial story is that how big will the government influence be once they've provided the ten billion and you know if Lift chief executive officer. Cast boy has any say. I mean he doesn't want an easy to government people on his supervisory board and tell him how to run an airline and I think history's poorly shown that Governments aren't good owners of many assets airlines in particular. So so he. As far as we know he doesn't want the government in there but of course he needs the money so this is kind of this kind of the the question. That's that's being discussed in Berlin as we speak. How much government influence You know will will lift and up with overall. I mean the The the shares have had a pretty disastrous year. Obviously they've Haft lift has has said it will cut the number of aircraft operates permanently They've they've closed a few weeks ago. They've closed their discount Germanwings As a as a first step to to cut back on expenses so at the moment the company is burning through eight hundred million euros a month I think got fourbillion liquidity. Right now You do the math. It's it's it's not a unique situation but maybe just before we get to unique situations. Do we have any indication as to how much going to be Loans and then securities in? Are we looking at? The German state would actually go in and end up with fifteen percent right away or does that come as a second stage potentially I think I think it's really still still up in the. I mean as an example. You look at Suisse the Swiss army of of Lufthansa. They fully They got their money and the Swiss government Hey decided rather than to take a direct stake in the company which is giving medicine hundred percent owned by. Lufthansa would be difficult to pull off. Anyway Dave basically provided credit guarantees so Swiss will receive money from the banks from UBS in Credit Suisse and the government will provide guarantees to the tune of one point three billion francs
Why Negative Prices Exist and What They Can Teach Us
"Last week? The price of the May twenty twenty West Texas intermediate crude oil futures contract known as WTI fell to as low as negative thirty seven dollars per contract that means the holder who was long oil was willing to pay to exit the contract. Cnbc markets reporter. Pippa Stevens wrote on Monday for the first time on record west Texas intermediate the US oil benchmark plunged below zero and into negative territory before Monday. Many thought this was impossible. Maybe just maybe it could drop to zero effectively erasing. All value but negative territory seemed unimaginable. Not least because it's hard even to wrap one's mind around it pay someone to take your oil in this episode. We're going to see why oil prices went negative. We'll also look at other examples of negative prices and why they exist and what we can learn from them. The WTI futures contract has a physical settlement which whoever holds the contract when it expires receives a barrel of oil the contract settles in Cushing Oklahoma. That's where that of oil is delivered if he owned the contract. That's where you're going to get your oil or at least arrange for somebody to store it for you. Us crude inventories are near an all time record high. In cushing Oklahoma. Seventy percent of the storage capacity was four as a mid April and a Reuters. Article suggested that most of the available space already leased out. There's nowhere to put that oil. That is being received as part of the future contract settlement. Now the May oil futures contract has since expired and now the June oil futures contract is the front month contract that will expire in the third week of May. Yesterday the June contract fell twenty five percent just under thirteen dollars. They United States oil. Etf USO fell fifteen percent. It has lost eighty three percent year to date leveraged exchange traded funds tied to oil have shut down. They lost all the money products by wisdom tree. Ubs and velocity shares which is owned by Janice. Jim Cramer said there are times in life where people know that there's an instrument that is faulty and they can shoot against that instrument and bury these people there is this financial problem people who are buying the USO that United States oil energy T.F. Bay our financial people. So if you're a real person or you're a large contractor a large player they can wipe out the USO in. I think that's been what's going on. It's not a conspiracy. It's a reality when you have an organization that can't take delivery. Well you should crushed that organization every time and that's what probably happened. Who are these people that are getting crushed that own USO? Well some of them are retail investors. But most are institutional investors John Highland. He's now retired but he was the former investment officer of the United States Commodity Fund which manages USO. He pointed out that eighty percent of USOC shares are held by non retail investors hedge funds include energy trading desk and other professional players the purpose of this ETF was to allow investors to get exposure to the front month contract of oil at the end of twenty nine thousand nine. It had one point. Two billion dollars under management and the vast majority of its investment at the end of December was in the February wti crude oil futures contract that expired in January every month this ETF would sell that contract right before it expired. And then by the next contract in order to make money it needed to sell that contract for a higher price than what it paid for it right now when you look at the price of West Texas intermediate crude futures contract or is a steep premium as you go further out
HSBC sees mounting credit losses after pandemic halves first-quarter profit
"So much now let's get back to the banking earnings from this morning Europe's biggest lenders have reported a surge in credit losses amid the corona virus outbreak HSBC taking its biggest charged about deaths in almost nine years and saying it expects credit losses to rise to as much as eleven billion dollars this year the picture was a bit better over at UBS which saw net profit surged forty percent despite concerns about income streams from its wealth management unit for more let's bring in Jonathan Tice senior analyst for European banks at Bloomberg intelligence I'm Jonathan great to have you with us I know going into this you were hoping perhaps for some sort of guidance from the transformation planned they announced back in February a lot of which has of course been put on hold because of corona virus the shares are down just a little bit today down one and a half percent in London and a what was the biggest takeaway for you what sets the scale of the credit losses that we might see in twenty twenty but also the fact that that number as CFO you Stevenson said to us on TV could be subject to change
The US is now in a recession — How long will it last?
"We are in a recession like right now already thing is this isn't like the recessions we usually get were something wrong with the financial system or another part of the economy a problem it might take a while to fix right this is a pandemic a really fast moving pandemic that at some point is going to be over and that let us today to wonder how bad this recession might get how quickly it might pass and how long it's gonna take us to get back to where we were marketplace's Sabri Banna shore starts us off in one week jobless claims went from two hundred and eighty two thousand to three point three million one week that is how fast this economic downturn is happening but just because it is coming on quickly does not mean it will go away quickly the recovery is going to be staggered a sharp V. shaped recession doesn't seem likely says carpenter is chief U. S. economist at UBS securities as different parts of the country get hacked and shut down at different times the recession spreads out across time how much time welcome here says he thinks the lockdowns in the worst of the virus could pass by June but the economy we knew will not be waiting on the other side there are millions upon millions of Americans who have already and will have lost their jobs I suspect spending will be damped pretty dramatically for a lot of those people as they try to rebuild their lives the unemployment rate could fall somewhere between ten and thirty percent even people who don't lose their jobs may not spend the same way Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia group people are not going to feel comfortable going to concerts going to bars or getting on a crowded plane after nine eleven it took about two years for the truck to return to the pre attack levels here Norman bar this is chief economist of IHS Markit he says businesses like people will take on debt to get through this which will leave them much less likely to make big investments as some businesses go under supply chains will lose links we don't think will regain the pre opened nineteen levels of GDP for another two or three years so in two to three years the economy will be where it was a few months ago forget where we would have been had this pandemic not happened but despite that the US has one piece of advice this too shall pass one more time this too shall
Why You Need Trustology
"Really interesting Willie. Our at the moment when it comes to crypto now this is going to a affiliate shortly so paper will still be in the midst of this covered. Nineteen virus that has you locked down and may on lockdown and probably many more people listening to this. Because they're in lockdown. I wanted to so to speak to you today. About is that affecting the market it before we get to that stage A little bit about yourself. Trust in when you started a little shocked System just og back in November twenty seventeen now so well now And that was a with consensus so we started a consensus spoke. Lubin enough to Ye away spun out as a separate legal entity Within BEEN INVESTED BY CONSENSUS. So thank you to them and to Sigma Ventures. Thank you to them to Based out of London Swell of us a cutting code enduring also stuff Yeah and we've been ready kind of waking ready. Huts Custodial will it platform So we say cup. People's case and held them to put transactions through onto it coin theorem and we'll be adding spoiled to other bulk. James like finance shortly as well as looking after kind of assets on exchanges as world helping flakes managed that before that very kind of now Career for a lot of people in crypto half of the people in Crypto works for banks used Iran innovation for UBS Swear I was looking at all sorts of stuff from cool mobile projects looking to security on the streets Moving into kind of machine learning Big dates all that kind of stuff. Undiscovered blockchain also super cool Ended up opening lap at a level nine or UBS where we did a lot of work on small bones and so on Ammon Windy being one Mellon Custody and then tried to tried to stop mining company. Did we just just just energy raw. Have been you've been every women as they cite financing around but I mean all in the same industry. Did you serve when you? Ubs did you jump ship because you saw something. Bigger your bold. What was the raising V to leave your mothers and fathers would call a good job. A styling count it. It's a big step to walk away from From those sorts of organizations what was it. That really inspired you to do that. I felt like I had a once in a life. Chance to try and build something an look Lodge organizations ready kind of a very important function But being very big F you simply cannot say the same wrist yet When you playing a trillion with a pension funds and stuff like that he just socially irresponsible to take the kind of risks startup candidate I wake up with startups in my role back in the banks. Mentoring them will genie to do you. Know to kind of In engineering assistance. Full Bank grade scale But after a year. Raila us that if you are trying to be on Leandro Angel Tech You have to have a go at a small company. The only place that you'll be able to do that in a way. That's except risky is in data system. There's anything wrong with a bank or it's more the fact that quite right. You have to choose the level risk. You want to work on and then said negotiations. I see jewel and others for an Nightclub Stanton. And the word that you used there was was responsible obviously a startup. You is the risk to reward ratio. You take bigger risks than you are looking for bigger rewards. These institutions tend to sometimes not taking bigger risks. And I need to keep chipping away completely. Understand that point of view I guess moving into the actual service itself. Do you WanNa tell us a little bit about who you sane because you've been around for a good couple of years now it's to be around or Saudi accompanying two thousand seventeen in this space. It is and is still be alive. Audits ushered should tied with that to still be around. 'cause many let's face it many of those are see is popped up have also pumped out And then longer around. But you've been around. You continue to move for us to way and it's interesting to say the China the monitoring what sort of changes you say in the space transform of that so two hundred eight years You saying a different demographic coming now to use your product. Yeah absolutely so you know if if you look at the early days he had Ic craze radius kind of crowd funded many way but with very tech savvy people so those not mind for custody that Boyne because GonNa defects that will get into this space Wanted to connect fully control a case just completely respect and they didn't need assistance. We've seen a change in that on the ICS kind of the Public. Lachey gone and his lawyer worry about whether they seem to be securities and so on So instead a lot more private placements but actually we've seen of people who are buying the tokens They now from wider People but they tend to be less technical so they need a little more Holding they're looking for much more school. Two Point Zero experience where a lot of things to handle for them which is kind of what we designed
UBS Bank won’t fund new offshore Arctic oil, gas projects
"A Swiss bank has joined with three major U. S. banks and ending support for offshore drilling in the arctic brain shock reports UBS invested roughly three hundred million dollars into arctic oil and gas projects between twenty sixteen and twenty eighteen according to an environmental group this comes after similar announcements from Wells Fargo JPMorgan chase and Goldman Sachs Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs specifically said they would avoid future drilling in the arctic National Wildlife
Bank of England keeps main interest rate unchanged at 0.75%
"Money tree policy committee meeting as the governor of the bank of England is one of the most unpredictable of his tenure money markets are pricing the chances of a twenty five basis point cut just under fifty percent same as a toss of a coin that's down from seventy percent two weeks ago as improving economic indicators may trade is less sure the bank needs to take action over to say joining us here in our London studio John Rafe UBS heads off you Kate rates a strategy will earlier Richard Jones called and said he reckoned it would be a cop today what do you think how you use the use the expression coin toss I think you're right it is a coin toss which is not in possession of some of the information the bank of England is what they've basically told us is that going to act early and aggressively if an awesome when they see a need to ease if I see anything in the data that worries them that likely to certify first and ask questions later have they seen something yet we don't know its internal intelligence some gets published next week which is quite significant there is the mantra policy report being published today which will have to tell for cost and information as well off he was that not gonna cut we've been saying that for a while and on the economic outlook I'm what we do know in leading indicators in terms of him awesome things we don't miss any case for them to do so we wouldn't be having this conversation were it not for the comments made about three weeks ago by Mister Khan and others yeah absolutely and I think that you know initially it really pushed up of bets on an interest rate cut but now they've sort of kind of waned essentially why do you think that that is what I think when they the comments were initially made the markets what was he trying to understand why they'd come out at that time it was any three weeks off the last meeting when they sounded much more sanguine that they came out with these much more urgent sounding calm and acting in a more private preemptively and there was a sense that maybe they were speaks about Walt had rob hadn't happened post election post clarity around that face the first phase of brexit that and the bounce back they were hoping for was materializing so that's why the market reprise so dramatically now we've had the PMR eyes in the CBI survey which suggest will be early in soft later and I'm very early stuff like that that's been something of a rebound people say well maybe they weren't talking about this meeting that just talking about that reaction function going forward and if the PMR is tell us anything it's that there has been a bit of an improvement that full they don't need to go as soon as today so this is just huge confusion and that's why the market split down the middle works I say to you have the C. B. eyes you said PM eyes with holiday of course it's backward looking I understand that is much less impressive I mean inflation weakest in three years British consumers shopping stores during the the December the key pad or if I mean if you were being really solid about what you believe that that that's going to be your main consideration I mean I think what what they really told us a nice comments it wasn't just that they sounded concerned it was about them saying pretty explicitly at least for those members from now on we can out act very swiftly and therefore it becomes more about we looking at those we are looking forward in two cases if they wait until the end of the first quarter to say well how did the holiday to look for January December their argument seems to be that'll be too late so they have changed the way they behave and that's why it becomes on certain for markets because they're looking at real time data the market often isn't privy to so that's why it's introduced this new amounts of volatility we thought and still think that they'll cut in may by which time it will be clear that Q. one wasn't grates and momentum starting to fade again as we head through the air in the brexit situation sauce come back in focus what they're suggesting and what the market reprocessing is happened is maybe they're not going to wait that long neck and what first and more about it often okay very briefly in the kills market is looking pretty cheap across various maturities I mean I'm in the hunt for yielded across Europe yeah well I mean that that yeah you need to say you have to call the law yes any of around fifty basis points that was awful costs for the end of the first quarter so we've got that by the end of the first month I'm at these levels you know guilt actually started a quite expensive to us partly depends on what goes on elsewhere if treasury yields keep falling away to have some of the last few days then you know never to be guilty of willful some offered the role that we think that they'll under perform treasury's in on the ongoing rally from here the front and we think it's likely to get a very dovish message today whether the MPC council not said every scarred for from ten years to for a bit further with
Are financial institutions waking up to climate change?
"Concerned about climate change is rising around the world on the streets in parliaments and among investors questions about the future of fossil fuels are putting new pressure on companies. He's and financial institutions so he was made to discuss what this means are hugh vents daynuss chair of the sustainable finance committee at UBS and former adviser to to Bank of England governor mark. Carney and billy nauman a reporter for the FTA's moral money. which covers the world of sustainable finance? I billy let's talk about some examples of the financial impact of climate change. What's been the economic fallout from the Australian? Bushfires that's a very good example I think and and it's one that's still kind of playing out obviously so it will take some time to see. The True Fallout Bank of America made some projections that the fires just for the first quarter of twenty twenty twenty could subtract at least zero point zero point four percent from Australia's entire GDP. So yeah. It's it's bad and probably a bit worse than people. Were expecting only a month six weeks ago absolutely. Yeah I mean the numbers were seeing on the insurance sector at this point they. They don't jump off the page. Necessarily I think they were close to nine. Thousand fire related claims from September until early January but that compares to just fourteen hundred fifteen hundred hundred for the yearly average of the last five years. I think so. It's a massive uptick in so much is still coming at this point. It's hard to say with the crisis. It's still playing out how bad it's going to be right. Hugh you recently wrote pace for the FDA about why investors and boards NATO take climate. I'm at risk into account now the Australian fires an example of that sort of risk. Or you have other. Things changed as well. Australia is clearly very stark reminder of the potential attention challenges but I think it's a much broader range of issues and I think there's always a push poll we're seeing regulators start to impose stress tests on the banks and their insurers shores particularly led by Governor Connie but also there have been some great initiatives to improve the quality of data. Because the key issue if you can't measure it you can't manage it and I think one of the companies and boards in particular realized they will increasingly be held to account through numbers which could be used both by investors by pressure groups. And we shouldn't underestimate the impact or pressure groups oops grabbing and using this data so far it's been a kind of voluntary initiative nine hundred of the biggest one thousand five hundred companies now starting to measure data but bit by bit is improving but the challenges as just investor behavior themselves. A growing number of vest design meet. Astonished say well they're all GONNA be big valley dispersions not just more Stralia. It could be from changes in tax. Six regulation or Brandon Pam if people think the company simply not honoring its responsibility. So it's it's a range of issues but there was definite groundswell in the market and that son what we're seeing in all business. Yeah you mentioned shareholder pressure there. We've just seen shareholders in Barclays Bank demanding that it starts the phase out financing companies that are not aligned with the Paris agreement. I wonder if both of you this seems to be something of a step up in relation relation to shareholder action when it comes to financial institutions. Is that how you say it or do you think. It's a trend already saying certainly I see. It's a growing trend and I think it comes from particularly some of the AH owners the big pension funds who are demanding action something like two thirds of all new mandates which are granted have some sort of sustainable finance aspect so they're pressurizing the managers to put their money where the mouth is but secondly on billy side of the pond in the states. There's a much richer. Set of data around proxy voting. One of the most striking statistics about the current round was the provos around environment were as frequent has governance. I think that's the first year that I've seen that. Yeah that's absolutely been the trend in it's been increasing and and one of the things I think is interesting is looking at some of these pressure groups some of these activist groups. And they're really ramping up their efforts. I was at a thing in in September around climate week here in New York and it was the principles for responsible banking which is a big. UN Consortium of banks talking about what their responsibility is as bankers anchors in terms of helping the world achieved the sustainable development goals and even at that event there was a group of protesters out there. And you could tell it really struck a chord with the bankers anchors. That were there. You know they're thinking well we're the ones that are doing well. We signed our names to this piece of paper and replacing to do this but from the activist groups. The message was that's not enough. We need to see action on this. And they're very adamant about keeping up this pressure on the banks that are financing fossil fuel companies. That's the case isn't Hugh that the banks are moving. They are taking steps to be more transparent in many cases but at the same time activists are saying listen. That's great but we just want. You should get out of fossil fuels. Yeah I think this is very challenging because you know let's face it finances the arterial system of the economy. And so we always you need power and and whilst I think many can be frustrated with the pace of change this will be more evolutionary than revolutionary some stats that McConnell US recently is one hundred trillion dollars of power and a sustainable projects which needs to be financed of the next decade and some of the going green so a new soda plant but some of them can try to be improving the quality of what we've God and we shouldn't underestimate improving. The bad to good is actually still step forward and I think that's a very nuanced and difficult argument for a financial innovation to make into a pressure. Group agree with what you said and it is very important that we have financing for going from bad to good from Brown to green. Or however you want to phrase it but I think that at that area gets very ripe for greenwashing for putting money into things that are not actually improving climate emissions. Like they might say they. Are you talking. In relation onto green bonds there perhaps green bonds is a perfect example. Yeah and then there's these things called transition bond which is a relatively new development. You Know Green bonds you run into the the problem where these companies are issuing green bonds for these projects that are allegedly going to improve carbon emissions. But it's just they were going to do anyway at stuff they're mandated to do you buy some new set of regulations and they are going out with this green bond and getting better terms as a result because they can label it his green the transition bonds. It's something that's offered offered to companies that might not usually qualify for green bond but they need to transition to be more green so this is a new category of financing financing available to these companies that helps them fund projects that move along that spectrum from Brown to green. Yeah and I mean greenwashing is a concern obviously and seems to me that more and more focus has come onto these sorts of bonds at some people find a suspect however broadly speaking. Isn't this a structural troll issue. I mean it. Doesn't it really point to the fact that there's not enough regulation either national or international of this market. I'm not sure if it's necessarily the regulation because you know if you make an example. Sir Chris hones dissolve all the company's portfolio disclose. Just this Christopher Hon who has a large hedge fund and here in London and. He said that he's not going to invest in any company that doesn't abide by the climate disclosure guidelines. That Mr Connie and you helped develop the Governor Carney server initiative but I think that the bottom line here is that actually sometimes the activists in the regulators may not be that far apart. Obviously there's a lot of good hard work to be done around the Standards Serum the investor point of view. Wouldn't it be great if as early as possible tomorrow. Really these guidelines which as you say currently voluntary were made mandatory. So I think actually in the best thing to do would be say within three years it will be mandatory and get companies to get on undo it there are still some some creases to iron out in the methodology but I think I would be very encouraging of that. Why should we wait three years when we've got the climate scientists telling us that this is a matter of extreme urgency and we really need eight to be cutting emissions as quickly as possible and therefore financing of fossil fuels needs to be effectively reigned in so for me? I would want all the companies to start today. Hey but you may not want to co defy methodologies. There's still a work in progress so I think it's by saying we will make it managed to in three years and we really rather expect you to do it. This year is sort of awed. Get to and billy what about the US. Do you think that you're going to be seeing. Regulators introducing mandatory disclosure anytime soon. No no I don't think the Political Otago Environment here is is going to lead to that at all. Unfortunately and what does that mean then if we have a world in which we have say European countries are making it mandatory the US and others a saying saying it's fine. You don't need to what then happens if we have a very uneven playing field. Well I mean I think we kind of saw something like this with GDP right where American companies have to abide by GDP CPR if they have European clients or do business in Europe so it's it's not ideal that the US is dragging its feet on these sorts of issues. But I do think that US companies will have to come around to some degree depending on what sort of regulation comes out of the you just moving onto another area. Do you think there are parts of the financial world old that Performing will when it comes to taking climate concerns into account for example green bond market is expected to keep growing this year. And we've forty saint extraordinary growth there there any other areas where we are starting to see a real change. You're starting to see a lot of sustainability linked loans Richard similar to green bonds where banks are incentivizing borrowers to hit targets whether it's emissions reductions by whatever means they can do it and if they do so they get better terms on their loans. That kind of stuff is growing a lot of support. You'll nap there's lots of really interesting pockets. One of the ones which is hardly reported about is the private equity quarter to also trying to become more sustainable an increasing number of creating their own sustainable funds. But also if you turn this around and it's not just climate if you've got a very concentrated portfolio do you really WanNa make sure your companies are being well run and that by the time you come until I was seldom they actually look as valuable as possible. So there's an increasing focus on what I'd say is the sustainability the inability of the franchise in all its manifestations and clearly firms will prioritize. But there's a growing market as well in private equity. I'm a little skeptical of of a lot of the claims coming out of the private equity market cricket and that's because of the lack of transparency. A lot of the major major companies have come out with these big impact funds. And when you look under the hood at some of the investments they've made aide you know there since there are no kind of set definitions on what is impact or how impact is measured. Some of them do a little dubious. I've been doing some research into one. One of the the bigger impact funds and just looking at some of the underlying investments. This is the Bane Double Impact Fund which is run by Duval. Patrick who's a former governor of Massachusetts. WHO's now running for president here in the US and A lot of the investments are in home health care which is a growing sector but is that really impact or is that just a play for a sector that they think. There's going to be growth in. I think more transparency from the private equity market would help a lot in terms of if they do deserve credit on this to give them that credit. But I'm skeptical of a lot of their claims this to be frank right. I'd like to ask both of you when you think we will see major banks in Europe and on wall all straight no longer financing fossil fuels. Never sorry to be a downer. But unless they're strict regulation that says you cannot do this someone will always do. Okay never look we will want to keep the lights on and so I. My sense is that this isn't evolution. And I got back the statistic if there's one hundred trillion over investments be made in energy clean energy and transition. That's an extraordinary amount of money. And fumbled in central banks buying and so whether it's capital markets all banks or insurers don't need be financing all the overall transition I think that what regulators can do and what I was certainly arguing for in the pieces through stress testing the banks us through providing better data. You can at least act to trump bring forward when that transition happens and that's probably the best one can hope for. I mean even the practice of with that transition though is likely to have an impact on a lot of industries. And how should that be managed. Well this comes down to the big public policy questions which you know the F. T. writes about so eloquently silently. I mean these are genuinely as much political questions other opportunities. I think that you know Al Gore says the investing in Green Tech is one of the biggest investment opportunities in his lifetime and at one level we need to also change the language so it was seen as much. The investment opportunities immobilized the capital in the way. That governor Connie is going to be going onto after the bank as much chaz trying to stress test and think through the risks. And I think it's a bit of sticks and carrots to try not just along but that's not going to take away the very big political challenges ages of you know who wants a carbon tax. I think that's an excellent point. Actually I I will amend my never if there is a disruptive technology that makes fossil fuel obsolete then then they will stop financing it because it will no longer be profitable. Think about whale oil. I suppose you could compare it to that. When fossil fuels came along and made will oil obsolete than nobody nobody is financing it anymore? So maybe if there is some sort of green technology that completely upends the energy sector then that could lead to it from a fan perspective. I suppose billy thank very much end. Hugh thank
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"From the sharpest minds and freshest, thinkers in the world of finance taking on the numbers in the hype and getting to the heart of the big issues of the day this week we're once again, putting art Basel in the frame, today's their final day of the event and over this past week, Bs Martinez twenty-six year as global lead partner by presenting collaboration with artist Federico Harare, in the UBS lounge at the fair now the banks being collecting, Harare's worked for eight years, and we'll hear from the head of its collection. Mary rebel a familiar voice listeners of this program as to why Federico feature so prominently Amway Costa Rican was a natural choice to create a site specific wall-painting for the occasion as well as five other new paintings from Harare, in the mix. The autism is also being presenting work this week in UBS public booth in whole one, the fair dedicated to the together band, which ki- listener. Will recall from a special episode of this show. Back in April we'll hear from Federico to, to learn about his inspiration and practice. And to hear about the challenge and opportunity presented by this sort of commission, and they sort of fair. But we start with Maryvale head of the art collection. Mary joined Monica's culture, editor yada, Mela in Basel to talk about the site specific installation at the heart of the lounge Kiara began by asking Mary. Why Federico Harare for this piece in this place, rather than say at Basel Miami Beach, which might have seemed more natural fit for celebrated Costa Rican artist? I immediately thought that Basel.
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Hello and welcome to the bulletin with UPS Monaco twenty four each week. We'll be hearing from the shop is mine's. Freshest thing is in the world of finance taking on the numbers in the height and getting to the heart of the big issues of the day this week, we're in Shanghai for the two thousand nine hundred edition of the flagship UBS greater China conference. The event offers comprehensive analysis of how greater China's positioning itself to take advantage of the opportunities offered by technological change as well as important global issues that impact the markets for discussion before the almost three thousand delegates in attendance, along with key figures from central banks from business and leading investors and innovators topics like the development of the new economy global trade the pace of growth and the momentum behind things like sustainability start with the UBS president of APEC Edmund co sets the scene for the G C. Here's how he welcomes delegates to the event and Shanghai. The morning everyone will come to Shanghai and they'll come to annual greater China conference. This team is contending for the future. This is critical time in history and the decisions we make today will have a lasting impact for the future. We have a record number of attendees at this conference with representatives from twenty six countries. Thank you all for joining us. Your presence is important to us as you to help ship. The will over the next couple of days. We have some top speakers lineup for you. They will be tackling some of the key issues affecting all of us. We will you sensually be taking a deep dive into three Keating's one of insights into US and China tensions. I'm sure a lot of you interested in that too looking at artificial intelligence and China's growing role on this very important sector and leading the discussion on sustainability and impact investing. We'll be asking plenty of questions, and we hope to equip you with the right answers to help guide Joe investment decisions in twenty nine thousand nine Paul going is China auto analyst in EBS investment research. Paul can you tell us a bit about the from your perspective? What are some of the main aims you? How this greater China conference every year in generating song-tai and this year are panted to amend chalks are Wyeth outside yours China tweet ward either wires up out at ratio imperative. And China throw you can get I think the other topic is suspended about developments. I haven't attended Mench work for. I think they several key topics doing this GCC, I was told their war eighteen hundred participants foreign investor community from the cooperates managements and industry experts coming to this event, Wendy lose chief, China strategist in UBS investment research and Wendy make just to kick off. Can you give us a bit of a scene setter? We already spoke with your colleague poll gong for this program about the Umbro times. Just tell us a bit about what goes on in Shanghai. Why the great China conference such a compelling event because the so many interesting narratives, it's always such an intriguing fixture in the UBS calendar. Isn't it? Tell us a bit about it. And why it matters so much? Started to become more of a Moscow event for the investors in China equities. Whether it's asures h years, the attendance is up almost by twenty percent and couple years ago we with year muster saying, it's too big. And I want to go to mid sized conference. But now since everyone's coming they wanna come excellent speakers. Lot of the top minds was in the industry is from a macro perspective and also vertical indices top minds in the in the shoes and hedge fund managers and the only seven wells fund. So I just think people wanted to have a gathering place to look for the you're ahead. And this is also the first major you bent for this year for all investors in Chinese equities. So I think it's just a must go you meant now when the other star of the conference CBS tem and actually talked about the critical impulse. Of China to UBS what wants to quite so much. I see the UBS brand in China. And to that matter Asia Pac has a an paralleled advantage and the quality of service or quality of research that I take pride in is also very impressive. And I think our investor clients find it very useful, and among the foreign investors that would like to comment invest in China UBS is a trusted provider. We have the biggest research combine onshore all Shoreham on all so Sipe brokers. And I think the economy the spy it's moderating growth rate is still growing at a phenomenal rate. The walls is building. So as a leading whilst manager around the world. And then also as a shop that is very much dedicated to providing vise and then. MS men services. We just see the different things coming together that could make it into even bigger business for UBS, and it's just uniquely position for this very large and growing up potentially. Let's reflect maybe on some of the big picture challenges before we talk about some more specifics to do with that tees, obviously a lot of the narrative of the last year and one imagine still in two thousand nineteen volatility globally, geopolitical uncertainty, and those are things that impact markets, as we know those kinds of discussions, you know, when you talk to clients the Bank into other stakeholders who who there in Shanghai is that what dominates the agenda is the issue of Chinese growth, maybe Chinese debt, of course, though, some of these some of the big things that people really interested in. Yeah. I think you hit the nail on the head. I think two thousand eighteen had the global Marcus started on a pretty upbeat beginning. And then throughout the year volatility rose. Oh, political uncertainty rose now people are wondering how much more downside there is and just the informal pool at the conference indicate that U S China trade issue is a concern. Also, you know Chinese policymakers make execution mistakes. But interestingly affects the arm be exchange rate that's less of a concern. And the property market is also less of a concern. So I think people are looking to the nineteen was quite sanguine outlook, the understand valuation is cheaper not at real, you know, so recession level, but it's, you know, near recession, and so they wanted to look at the companies whose going to grow earnings who may have some disappointment and try to position portfolio for the best possible return. So our advice to them is to start was a bit of caution and. And then in the second half of the year, particularly the fourth quarter the year over year comparison will be quite easy, particularly when we get to fourth quarter and just be a little bit cautious at the beginning of the year. If they were down with earnings revisions still come on the bulletin with him about the challenges and opportunities of the new economy from punt. If
"ubs" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS
"Minds and freshest is in the world of finance taking on the numbers in the hype and getting to the heart of the big issues of the day. If you're a regular listener to this program. Indeed, if you choosing in this time last week, you'll be well aware that UBS interested in addressing the big questions that shape the world to help us to them. They've been seeking out a number of Nobel laureates in the economic sciences to ask them to share insights and discuss their research this week. We're hearing from another such eminent mind fin kid land winner of the twenty four Nobel prize for his work on the time consistency of economic policy and the driving forces behind business cycles. Finn is sitting down with us on the bulletin with UBS today to talk about the hat and to discuss the regulation of monetary policy. His first nation with exploring the application of his theories in interdisciplinary fields. And we trust plenty more. Besides. Fin Kilonzo welcome to the program. I wonder in terms of if we look big questions big policy questions. It seems to me that there's not a tremendous amount of reassurance outlet currently that governments presidents all particularly invested in long-term strategic thinking I wanted you think that's fair observation, and if not what needs to be done, or what could be done to address that short termism in this political classes, I think that's correct. But I think it varies depending on what what part of the world you're talking about. So in the past couple of years quite a bit of uncertainty has been introduced by the United States. I think. Nothing much has changed in Scandinavian countries. My home country, no way, I think is fairly stable politically. Trustworthy. So and probably the same in Sweden. And then Mark it's not too surprising. From theoretical standpoint. That short termism sometimes arises, it's kind of what would predict. After discovered the principle that optimal government policies, timing consistent. It's sort of what you suspect will happen in countries. You suspect it would happen in countries with weak. But institutions it's a bit surprising may be that the United States would be the country embarking on. Issues like trade restrictions at cetera. Because that's a perfect example of short termism. Most economists agree that in the long run trade across nations is is beneficial to all nations. And so I kind of regard this short termism in in in the United States as as sort of naive. Maybe suggesting that whoever came up with it is. Either has not very trustworthy advisors or or he himself as they themselves may be if the if they hold party is in agreement that there. They haven't really thought through. They don't have the ability to think of the long run implications. I guess you've written and spoken extensively before about why given that backdrop the describe their force. It's very important to have central Bank independence, for example. And I guess if you have those kinds of governance structures that do sit without the political ecosystem largely without it that demonstrates the efficacy of that doesn't it? It shows how you can mitigate against some short termism. Is that enough though? I mean, you mentioned how we look to the US in the last couple of years. It does seem to go against so much of the received wisdom if you like about trade or about how to conduct day, stay politics. Do do you think sort of more needs to be done? Is it the job of economists like yourself to say, well, this doesn't seem very sensible? I think we readily point out what the issues are all the problems are. It's not so easy to. Come up with a long term solution. I mean the. The example of independent settle Bank. That has worked very well in the countries that can maintain that institution. It's much harder to think. Of a way, you could commit to good future fiscal policy or to goods, a long run fiscal policy and admittedly fiscal policy for for the long run as to be more important than monetary policy. So I sometimes half jokingly suggests that if some hotshot young economists can come up with a solution to the commitment problem, and now guess to Monte policy,.