1 Burst results for "Twenty Eighteen Bank Of America"

"twenty eighteen bank america" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

10:03 min | 3 years ago

"twenty eighteen bank america" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"City confirming a rough end to twenty eighteen banks America's likes his manager's survey showing global GDP and earnings growth expectations. Plummeting and China planning more tax cuts to stabilize a slowing economy, shoving further signs of weakness from New York live from the Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, good morning. As you Tuesday price action following those J P Morgan numbers futures rolling go up belly positive on the session now by just a tenth of one percent in the bond market treasuries coming in bombs bid yields lower by about a basis points at two point six nine percent on a ten year on a two year. We're at two point five to two percent, and we come in a single basis point in the FX market. The euro a little bit softer euro dollar coming down ran about a third of one percent. Sterling pretty much unchanged ahead of that Brexit vote a little bit later widely expected to fail in parliament, the big question is by what margin our chief Brexit correspondent Tom Kane county, making his way from Westminster of cannon straight on the London underground John suck has lost again idea when he's going to arrive, but hopefully in a couple of minutes time, and when he gets there with number chats wounded, at Brexit is that a promotion chief Brexit, correspondent senior chief Brexit. Tom Kaine gonna catch up with him a little bit lighter as we county dancer that vote in parliament later today in the United Kingdom, I want to begin with each AP Morgan numbers. Joining CitiGroup confirming what many people expected a really tough end to two thousand eighteen with the big question. What is the follow through to twenty nine thousand should not dropping by the studio here in New York? Linda investment banking reporter to get us up to speed on the numbers. Let's just start with a tough tough quarter for the capital markets business. It was really tough especially given that JP Morgan is one of the biggest bond trading houses across the world. He didn't say much Jamie diamond say much in the press release yet about what the forward-looking guidances for this business. But he definitely was hurt by the fixed income business and equities was pretty much in line with analysts expected. It definitely wasn't enough to help trading revenues overall Q4.'s ancient history. Now, we expected it to be bad has happened is as it's coming worse than many people expected it to be similar story was city CitiGroup. Yesterday, CitiGroup traded lower on the numbers. Then as the earnings call started, and we started to look forward through to q want twenty nine thousand nine enthusiasm builds up what does nineteen look like. And could we see a similar story today, which AP Morgan we could see a similar story with J P Morgan. But at the first glance at least, the the lending figures are kind week, we're gonna wanna see what Jamie Dimon says about the strength of the economy moving forward at CitiGroup. There were saying trade wars and all this geopolitical turmoil might not hurt until the fourth quarter of this year or later in the year. So a couple of quarters of stability might be really good for these banks. So through the loan growth story at the moment. Because one thing that jumps out of analysts in the early part of the release was just the credit provisions more money set aside to cover potentially souring loans. What's the story? Your sanction Ali within the numbers right at the provision for credit losses. Higher is really a problem. Our colleagues on top live point out that it's mostly from the credit card business, which is good news that it's not all from the mortgage is especially because mortgages have been having a tough market both at Jp Morgan and. And at Citi group, so we're gonna wanna see color about the strength of the American consumer both in the mortgage markets, and then how much Jamie Morgan is extending loans in the small business just working our way through the rest of the Bank for the investment Bank. A thing. This emerging at the moment is eminent advisories doing okay, debt, underwriting. Terrible wish you'd expect given what happened leverage loans and fixed income in terms supply going into the year end just in terms of Israel good pipeline here. A good story to sell for twenty nine thousand nine I twenty nine team the pipeline. He's going to have to comment on it right now because the SEC is not even taking deals and so the first quarter of this year. There is a bit of a backlog. There's a lot of turmoil and people don't like to do deals on the stock market is moving all over the place. You don't know what you're paying? And so we're gonna wanna see what he has to say about that. And we're gonna wanna see equity and debt under writing figures turn around. They're both down at the end of the last year. Cinelli best rights have is with us this morning. The stock by run about one point nine two percents. Nali will be with us through the morning and the afternoon on Bloomberg radio. Bloomberg TV to break down. What's happening with some of these big numbers coming through from Wall Street Brown Levato on against Oppenheimer funds, senior investment strategist, he joins us on the phone here in New York, Brian. It's another big consensus over white. We saw the story plan twenty eighteen as well. How does it plan twenty nine hundred for you? So I think the big story in twenty nineteen is that we're actually having a slowing economy, but probably a more a better environment for rates and inflation. So I actually think the markets will have a good year in two thousand nineteen but it goes back to the point where investors are going to be favoring true growth companies over, you know, more of the cyclical names in the United States or names that are more value oriented. So it's a shift. I mean last year was all about better growth, but not great policy. This year is going to be about slower growth, we suspect better policy, but that takes us back to an environment. Where investors in our mind bid up the true growth companies sobriety. What does that mean for the nation's banks here in America as we get the earnings yesterday from Citi group in today from J P Morgan and both of them just in terms of numbers for q four which we had expectations come in for already disappointing. Yeah. I mean, I I would think that in a slowing growth environment and environment where the the yield curve remains relatively flat. That's not kit, basically an environment where the financial sector the nation's banks are among the leaders in the market. I don't I don't expect that we're going into an environment where you know, financials are a significant drag on the market, but I suspect market leadership will come from elsewhere Brian fascinating to me, the the market is already getting ahead of where the data's coming through. And what a main by that. If you just look at the recent survey from Bank of America that is fund manager survey showing GDP and earnings growth expectations. Totally plummeting. You see the numbers coming out of China? Absolutely terrible. But what I'm saying is a market adjusting for maybe a rebound later this year. I'm looking at the high yield story in Asia and China the junk bond story lot more people constructive on that that's market. There's bid Brian is that a little bit of a head fake is that the market. Going too far ahead of the day, sir. Or is that a story you'd get behind? Now. That's a story. I would get behind like I think that what's what's transpired is. You know, the US we had a lot of stimulus the US decoupled from the rest of the world that lead to a strengthening dollar money being sucked out of other parts of the world into the United States oil prices collapsing, and that all kind of fed on itself, and the fed compounded by suggesting they were going to raise interest rates multiple times. We're now seeing the flip side of that in which the US is slowing back to trend. Yeah. China China is weakening, but you're starting to see some stimulus comes through new credit growth looks favourable. So basically a stimulus the catalyst for the rest of the world is the US moving back towards a trend level of growth the rest of the world generally hanging in the dollar moderating. That's actually a better environment than what we had in twenty eighteen when there was really good growth in the United States, but Pol. That was pretty disruptive to the rest of the world. This seems to be a how Brian the stimulus coming through from China will be enough to stabilize the economy was very incremental to me in the seems to be a shift as well over what they want to stimulate the economy with moving away from infrastructure spending moving away from leaning monetary policy to heavily and leaning into things like tax cuts. Now have the incremental moves beat enough will they be enough to turn the story around. It's a great point. Because what you had in two thousand fifteen in two thousand sixteen was significant investment that led to significant Chinese growth that lifted up growth all around the world, and that was the catalyst. We're not getting that this time. So in essence what you're getting is efforts to to stabilize Chinese growth near a trend level. And so the catalyst for the rest of the world in these higher yielding markets that you're talking about is not gonna be massive Chinese stimulus. It's going to be what we call. Stimulus alight. So that happens that stabilization happens as the US slows towards trend. It doesn't look exactly like fifteen and sixteen but markets could play out similarly because similar to the nine twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen emerging markets have been beaten up an investor sentiment gotten really weak, the dollar is pretty strong. And you know, this this stimulus light at a China could be the catalyst to unlock some of that volume. Final question for a lot of investors out. There were waiting for the data to confirm the turnaround a us saying that by the time they've got that they're going to miss the big chunk of the upside. Yeah. I mean, that's how it goes. I like, I don't think that this cycle ends anytime soon. There's really not inflation anywhere in the world. I don't see significant excess anywhere in the world. So I suspect this is a cycle that goes on longer than people expect think concerns of twenty nineteen or twenty twenty recession or hyperbole. Investors should be. Investing. This is one of those big bull markets. Long-term secular bull markets that we get in our lives. I've been told you get three of them on. You're too young to old advantage of the one in the middle. And that's that's what I think investors need to be doing. Hey, Brian catch up on the funds senior investment strategist to run us through the market. San respond to the latest earnings in a financial sector. Brian Levitt there from Oppenheimer in the market J P Morgan numbers relative to expectations analysts expectations. Disappointing just a bit. We're down by one on a half percent futures pretty much unchanged from New York. This is Bloomberg..

United States Brian Levitt Citi group China Jamie Morgan New York J P Morgan Bloomberg Bloomberg interactive brokers Jamie Dimon United Kingdom Brexit Oppenheimer Tom Kaine SEC