40 Burst results for "Treasury"
The Dan Bongino Show
The Worst Bond Bear Market in History
"I didn't know that. It's crazy. It sounds like a long time. So the worst stretch for government bonds since the Civil War? That sounds bad, folks, because it is. Why aren't I hearing about this in the mainstream media? There's an easy answer because the president is a Democrat. If this was a Donald Trump administration, trust me, you'd be hearing about the apocalyptic bond market every day. Donald Trump driving the country to ruins. No one wants to lend this money. Why are you not hearing about it other than the Dan Bongino show? Because the president's a D. Simmer. Democrat, come on. What's wrong with you? Here, the government keeps borrowing to cover its budget deficits while once reliable buyers of US debt, both home and abroad have pulled back. No one wants to buy this crap anymore. The result? Investors are demanding the steepest yield since 2007. Oh, they want a lot of money to lend the government money. Auctions of fresh bonds that were once routine are now going terribly. Getting hammered. The longest dated treasury bonds are in a bear market worse than the dot com bust and almost as bad as 2008. Gee, why aren't you hearing about that? Because Joey Boom bots White House is a D.
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
Fresh update on "treasury" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
"Seng index was one index that was down pretty sharply and we also had the CSI 300 trading off and capping a fourth straight month of losses. Dolly in 147 .93 we have the dollar weaker now it had gained in the US session. The Bloomberg dollar spot index is off a tenth of one percent and on the yield the ten -year treasury 4 .32 percent and that is your Bloomberg Business Flash. It's time now for sports with Dan Schwartzman in New York Dan. Hey Brian Liverpool advancing to the Europa League knockout stage a 4 -0 win over Laskins West Ham United by the way also advancing also winning is right in and of Albion Cristiano Ronaldo is has been slapped with a 1 billion dollar class action lawsuit in federal court in the Southern District of Florida this
Mark Levin
Rich Zeoli and Caller George Talk U.S. Aid Going to Hamas
"Money so well the republicans are trying to stop it in george thanks for the call have a very blessed thanksgiving thank you and the republicans are trying to stop it by carving out separate votes you know vote up or down in israeli which is what it should be a vote up or down in ukraine aid which is the way it should be in a vote up or down on humanitarian aid up or down these are what i'm talking about up or down votes don't tie these things and together then have that debate have that debate exactly where the money's going to go to and if you really believe it's going to be humanitarian relief and it's not going to be used by hamas then you're crazy you're nuts but you know the the senate and the white house they are demanding demanding that all this aid be tied through tied together period because they know that the ukraine aid may not pass is there a number of republicans right now questioning all this money and rightfully so because the other day the secretary of treasury janet yellen's going on about how how we have to keep giving ukraine money so that they can pay their teachers you do what we want so yeah there's there's that conversation then there's a conversation about the humanitarian aid for for gaza and you turn around and go you really you don't think that's going to get into the hands of hamas are you kidding me so oh yeah these have to be separate up or down votes bottom line no question about it let me get back to this media matter story those things are very important and you and i as people who appreciate conservative radio conservative we've talked conservative media you've seen the all out attack on our voice you've seen this yourself the attack on elon musk right now very reminiscent of what people like russian mark and sean and the others went through years and years ago and still do every day still do it's not like a day goes goes by the media matters is in hunting down people like tucker carlson and the list goes on and on the point is that what they're doing to twitter right now manufacturing these images has had a a devastating effect on twitter's bottom line twitter
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
Fresh update on "treasury" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
"Worst month in about a year. Dolly in 148 .02, yield on the 10 -year Treasury 4 .32%, the two -year at 4 .68%. And oil prices, even with the move by OPEC, WTI, moving down to $75 .63 cents a barrel, that's down four tenths of one percent. And that is a Bloomberg Business Flash. Sports Now with Dan Schwartzman in New York. Dan? Hey, Brian, let's start off with Cristiano Ronaldo. He has now been hit with a action class lawsuit in the Southern District of Florida. The lawsuit filed in federal court. This for his voting cryptocurrency of -related, quote, non -fungible tokens, NFTs as they are known. His, of course are the CR7 collection with Binance. He continues, by the way, to promote the Binance X.
Tech Path Crypto
"treasury" Discussed on Tech Path Crypto
"A couple other things while all of that's happening, tokenized treasuries is continuing to fly now, over 770 million right now, current average yield to maturity of 5.24, and you can kind of see the activity there, obviously is Franklin Templeton pretty much running most of the market, obviously riding on ETH, Polygon, Solana, et cetera. Tokenized securities, they're coming, and they're coming in a big way, I think a lot of people are not necessarily ready for this, and may not even know about it, because this story that I'm getting ready to reveal to you guys is not getting a lot of traction, and what it means is some pretty big deals, in reference to what will happen with Stablecoin, but in reference to securities, and tokenized securities for that matter, meet MIDAS, new yield-bearing Stablecoin investing in U.S. treasuries. Couple of points right here I want to hit on, MIDAS is a Stablecoin backed by U.S. treasuries, planning to unleash its STUSD token, and this will be coming up on platforms like Maker, Uniswap, and Aave in the coming weeks, so now you're gonna be looking at a potential Stablecoin within the DeFi market that is gonna have the capacity to gain yield. That's the big difference, we've been waiting for this on a lot of different capacities, through exchanges, things of that nature, now in DeFi, it's here, so a big one. My Stablecoin project intends to buy treasuries via asset manager BlackRock, and then use Circle Financial's USDC Stablecoin as the on-ramp, so when you look at that movement alone, both Circle, BlackRock, and Larry Fink actually spoke to this here recently, he had done a couple of podcast interviews, and he was very specific about where this was going in terms of tokenized securities, but more importantly, around what Stablecoins and what role they would play. Yields are gonna be offered by assets in traditional finance, like U.S. treasuries currently exceed yields on conventional DeFi products, okay, but the solution, as MIDAS presentation deck states, is that the tokenizing TradFi products, so they'll be available in the DeFi ecosystem. Though it may not be equivalent, I think the fact that this is gonna be an option will be absolutely huge, and one of the things that you should probably pay attention to is obviously Uniswap, Uniswap could be one of the early winners here, and if you look at just Uniswap's price, this is their all-time, you can kinda see, Uniswap has taken a lot off the edge there, and even if you look at the market cap, also very low, I'll go here to the one month just to show you what kind of movement Uniswap has had, both in market cap and also in price action, so is and are there a little bit of front running right now as to what's gonna happen with MIDAS out there around Uniswap? Taking a look at USDC, a little bit of action here, this is the all-time here on market cap for USDC, let me take a look real quick on Tether as well, give you guys kind of a comparison because it's a little different comparison on all-time with Tether and right there in the market cap, so some people have said that maybe some of this is in the all-coin market or maybe is it in something that we're gonna start to see in terms of yield products in DeFi for stablecoins, all that could be lining up, and if you look at this last story, Tether issued 4 billion USDT tokens in a month, fueling market speculation around this, so this could be a little bit of the early stages of what we could see around these kinds of strategies. Last up here, stablecoin issuer Circle is now considering going IPO in early 2024, and if you think about this right here, it's reportedly in talks with its advisors over an initial IPO for early 2024, this could be pretty big for them, not only in the sense that they're already seeing the writing on the wall of where this is going in terms of just the fintech assets that will be making their ways to the market, but also the future of USDC and the rest of the crypto market in general. A couple other things, I'm just looking at Uniswap on the chart right here, we're on the four hour, I'll go out here to the daily, kind of stretch this out a little bit, see if there's any potential price action, you can kind of see there's some potential numbers here, obviously the last resistance we saw here is around that 650 range, then it starts to blast up to around 930, so I don't know, are you guys interested in going into projects like that, looking at this as speculation, I'd love to get your feedback, make sure and leave some comments down below, and also make sure and smash the like button if you like these shorts, but also very to the point episodes, let me know, give me some feedback, make sure and put it down there, if you're not in the diamond circle, get in now, it's a great place to get additional alpha, if you guys want to catch me on X, it's at Paul Baron, catch you next time right here on Tech Path.
Bloomberg Radio New York Show
Fresh update on "treasury" discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York Show
"Entertainment is changing and explain what that means for you because context changes how you see things, how you change things. Context changes everything. Start exploring my coverage at IBKR .com. This is Bloomberg Markets with Paul Zwienie and Matt Alright, Molly Smith, Paul Zwienie live here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio looking at these markets. It's S &P down about one tenth of one percent. The Dow up eight tenths of one percent. Salesforce .com really pushing that index higher. It's got a big move today up about six percent. NASDAQ off about three quarters of one percent. Yields moving higher here. The 10 -year Treasury is up six basis points. Four point three two percent WTI crude oil. Despite the fact that OPEC Plus is saying they're going to cut production by another million barrels per day. It's off 3 .5 percent just above twenty five dollars
Tech Path Crypto
"treasury" Discussed on Tech Path Crypto
"All right, so today let's dive into a little bit of what's happening, both with stablecoins and take a look at the market in general. I think you guys will like it. It's going to get to some interesting insights. We'll also reveal something in there at the end that you don't want to miss. My name is Paul Baron. Welcome back into Tech Path. All right, so let's get into it. Before we get started, I want to thank our sponsor and that is iTrust Capital. If you guys are looking at long-term holding, this is the place you can do it. And if it's a crypto IRA, this is one of the best places out there to go. And a couple of reasons why. $7 billion in transactions, 200,000 accounts out there. And if you are doing tax planning and things like that, of course you should always talk to your tax planner, but IRAs are one of the best ways to go. Check out iTrust Capital. Use our link down below for a $100 funding reward to get started. All right, so let's do a couple of coverages here. I want to jump over to Ron Hammond from the Blockchain Association. This week in Congress in crypto, busier week in DC shutdown, looming on Friday, hearings with various bank regulators in both Senate and House, and a major focus on crypto in relation to the Hamas activity. So we're going to continue to get a little bit of FUD from Congress in reference to activities around crypto usage and all that. And I think, of course, that will be dispelled easily. Ron goes into a lot throughout his tweet storm right here. Getting into the Senate banking hearing with the OCC, FDIC, and the Fed, some other things going on there. They're talking about having the prudential regulators, et cetera, all of that happening on their financial committee around illicit finance. This is in reference to Hamas and Iran. So if you guys want to catch a little bit more about what Ron's talking about, make sure you're following him on Twitter. Interesting. Just wanted to bring that up to you guys to give you kind of a heads up of what's happening in DC right now. Another thing that is happening right here, JP Morgan reports doubts about Bitcoin ETF effects on Bitcoin. Now, there's a couple of arguments here, and we just did a show that probably will come out after this, but we did a show with a financial advisor, and I asked him point blank, do you think and are you getting inquiries from your own customers around the Bitcoin ETF? His answer was very surprising, and that was no. So question right here, ETFs in Canada and Europe did not attract much interest, so JP Morgan questions if the US ETFs will be different. They also say legal losses for the SEC won't necessarily make crypto rules any looser. I think that is true to a certain extent, but I would argue that there's still enough of a difference between the two markets, or three markets really, if you look at Canada, the US, and even in Europe. The US has a completely different, I think, attraction when it comes to not only the investment, the institution side of it, and we actually went through this in the video I'll do talking about Bitcoin tomorrow, is where would be the potentials of where ETFs could get exposure, and a lot of it may come from places you don't necessarily expect, versus just a regular spot ETF. So we'll break into that, love to get you guys' feedback, whether or not you think the spot ETF is gonna move, or continue to move Bitcoin, or are we seeing this Bitcoin run on kind of buying the rumor, and then selling the news? Is that how you're playing it? Let me know.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
Fresh update on "treasury" discussed on Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
"Introducing PayUSD, PayPal's stablecoin. Designed for digital payments and Web3 transactions, PayUSD is the only stablecoin supported by PayPal. Built on Ethereum, it's compatible with widely used wallets, exchanges, and dapps and fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits and cash equivalents. Eligible U.S. PayPal customers who purchase PayPal USD are able to transfer PayPal USD between PayPal and external wallets. Send PayPal USD to friends in the U.S. on PayPal or Venmo without fees. Shop with PayPal USD on millions of sites. Convert any of PayPal's supported cryptocurrencies to and from PayPal USD. Whether you are a crypto expert or a newcomer, PayPal provides a secure and convenient platform for your crypto transactions. Start exploring at paypal.com slash p-y-u-s-d. Welcome back. Today, I have to talk about a proposed U.S. rule change that could impact the functioning of crypto markets far beyond U.S. borders. In a speech yesterday, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo outlined a proposal that the Biden administration will submit to the broadest expansion of its powers since the Patriot Act, enacted after the terrorist attacks of 2001. The aim is to further curtail the financing of terrorist activities by making it much harder for certain groups to use crypto assets. Adeyemo's speech cited figures given in media reports suggesting that Hamas has relied on crypto financing, even though these figures have since been solidly debunked. Nevertheless, the message is that crypto helps terrorists, and therefore crypto needs to be controlled. The new powers would give Treasury the right to penalize any crypto platform anywhere for facilitating transactions involving sanctioned entities or persons, even if the transactions have no U.S. touchpoints. It basically extends the reach of Treasury well beyond its current boundaries and essentially places all crypto platforms around the world under U.S. jurisdiction. Treasury would become the world's financial policeman, at least as far as crypto transactions are concerned. You may think that is problematic enough, or you may agree with the idea on the basis that only the U.S. can be trusted to do this, but the proposals go further. They suggest that OFAC should have jurisdiction over all U.S.-based stablecoins anywhere. If blockchain-based dollars were used, then the idea is that the U.S. has jurisdiction, even if, say, a resident of China not on any sanctions list wanted to use USDT to buy some Dogecoin on a Hong Kong-based exchange. But the U.S. does not have jurisdiction over the euro-dollar market or the dollar-cash market, which is plenty active in countries such as Argentina, Zimbabwe and many others. This idea therefore penalizes the technology used rather than the asset or the use case. The result would be to boost the use of stablecoins backed by other assets such as gold or yuan, to the detriment of the U.S. dollar. Hang on, it gets worse. The restrictions on interacting with U.S.-designated sanctioned entities or persons would also apply to DeFi services, wallets and validator nodes, all of which would need to implement anti-money laundering and terrorism financing measures. This reveals a total misunderstanding of how crypto technology works. Nodes, wallets and DeFi apps are not financial entities and don't have a way to collect detailed user identification data, they just don't. And even if they did, there's the security risk of having such data honeypots just sitting there in automated entities distributed around the world. What's more, it's crazy to assume that they even should have to collect this data. It's like holding a road responsible for stopping bank robbery getaway cars. Bottom line, we can probably agree that curtailing terrorism financing is a good thing. But the U.S. administration is proposing to do so by implementing global financial surveillance, even over crypto asset transactions, when this is precisely what Bitcoin and others were created to prevent. The proposal suggests that the fiat system should have jurisdiction over networks created to operate outside the fiat system. Should this proposal go through, and that is not a given, it could push more crypto businesses offshore, swing the balance of stable coin use to non-dollar options and trigger a firestorm of debates about privacy and U.S. is for sure. The privacy-protecting utility of crypto assets will continue to become ever more important. Thanks for listening. That's it for today's show. For more crypto podcasts, check out the CoinDesk Podcast Network. You can reach us at podcasts at coindesk.com, follow us, and if you like the show, please leave us a 5-star rating on whatever platform you're listening to us on. Markets Daily is produced and edited by Eleanor Paul, with executive production by Jared Schwartz. I'm Noelle Acheson for CoinDesk. We're back tomorrow with more market news and insights.
Tech Path Crypto
A highlight from Bitcoin ETF Hype is Exaggerated w/ Andrew Horowitz | Investment Advisor
"All right, today we're going to be diving into some macro news, also get into a little bit of what's happening in DC and then towards the end, we'll get into a little bit of ETFs, some strategies and some things to look forward to in 2024. We're going to do it with a special guest. I think you guys will love it. My name is Paul Baron. Welcome back to Tech Path. Joining me today, of course, is a friend and a guest who's been on our show many times and that, of course, is Mr. Andrew Horowitz, president and founder, Horowitz & Company. Great to have you back. What's happened? It's been a while. How are you, Paul? It has been a while. I'm doing great. The markets are kind of a little crazy, but I think this is, with everything that's going on right now, not only in DC, but just globally from just the scenarios we're facing internationally, I think what's to be expected, I think it's at least, nothing's burnt down yet, so that's a good thing. At least yet. Good news. Yeah, good news. Success. Nothing's on fire that we know of other than, well, a few things. Let's talk about a few things that might be on fire and that, of course, is the U .S.'s credit rating, downgraded from Moody's, not necessarily looking that great and a looming shutdown right now. Obviously, Andrew, you being an investment advisor, you get a chance to work with a lot of high net worth individuals. What's their take on this? Are they concerned at all? What do you think is up? So it's interesting. I was watching, just to be clear, the Moody's move was really not a downgrade. It was more of a credit watch, which is equivalent to like a mini downgrade, if you want to call it that, but it's not a true downgrade. It's saying, it slapped us on it and it was all about just voicing the opinion of the bond rating agency of the dysfunction in Washington. And by the way, it doesn't take a genius or anybody that is doing anything in life to know that there is, that doesn't know that there's a severe dysfunction in Washington, D .C. Our political leaders cannot make a decision and they won't make a decision for any good reason other than the fact of what is politically expedient and good for themselves. And they're not really doing a good job for any of us, right? So okay, that being the state of where we are and the fact that we can't get a budget done, you know, we had to open the debt ceiling up for a year and a half to an unlimited amount of debt being pumped in if necessary, and the fact that they can't get the full resolution done on anything more than a continuing resolution to fund government is a problem, is that there's a functional dysfunction in Washington, kind of like the walking dead of politicians. So most people realize that they're not going to be terribly affected long term, even if we do shut down the parks, the various agencies. Those people are going to get their money when we reopen, eventually something will break and they will be a budget done. So it's this very strange time of a realization that there could be a downgrade. But in the end, what happens, what happens is, as Alan Greenspan would say, it doesn't matter what our rating is, we could always print as much money as we need to pay off all of our debts. The U .S. is not going to default. Yeah, well, but that's the truth. And that's what we've done. Well, yes. And of course, I think, you know, if you look at the spiraling national debt and the continued rise in that, I mean, at some point they have to be able to address this. Is there really any way out of this other than a complete pivot by Powell? There's no way. I can't see a way. You know, what do you do? You raise the, well, yeah, I'll give you the way, right? We all buckle down. We pay higher taxes. You and I are not in favor of that, are we? No, but that's what we do. We slow down the spending on excess and we spend, just like you would do as a business or an individual. If all of a sudden, you know, your salary is capped out at X, you don't spend X plus 20, unless you know you're going to get some money in the future, for whatever reason, whether it's, I don't care if it's an inheritance or whether you're gonna get a raise or a bonus or something else comes in, but that's not how the government operates. They operate on, listen, we're going to spend X, but that's what we plan probably to spend X times, you know, 20 % more. And then if it doesn't work out, what we'll do is just print money and figure our way out of it. And that's what we've been doing for a long time. We're debt dependent society. Sure, sure. With that being the case, you look at the potentials here. I was just looking at a tweet from Peter Schiff, obviously a big gold bug, Moody's lowered its rating, obviously, yes. Risks have been obvious for years on a treasury, it should be rated junk. If you hold them to maturity, guaranteed to lose, and the reason I want to show this is when you look at whether it's 10 -year treasuries or you look at something like gold or Bitcoin, obviously we've seen both of these assets in comparison to the S &P do very well this year. We're also getting ready to go into 2024, there's a lot of things happening in the blockchain industry and within the crypto markets that is probably going to shift around a little bit. You've also got a lot of technology that's been building over time. When you look at the markets like that and you see what people are expecting out of the S &P by the end of the year and through the first of next year, which people are, some analysts, anticipating an uptrend, what is your thought around the market condition right now? Do you feel like we've hit the bottom or is this something that we may see some more pain? Can we just go back to Peter Schiff for a second? Just for a moment. Peter Schiff, I know him well, he's been on my show many times. How many times is he going to be wrong with people just still believing him and wanting to believe him? I've known him for 15 years and it's been the same discussion over and over. The dollar is going to zero, the same thing. And why? He's talking his book. It's a good spiel and he has not been able to pivot off of that. Every once in a while, it looks like he's a flash of genius, right, that this is going to be. And it does make sense, by the way. What he says makes total sense. We haven't broken yet. We haven't broken anything yet. The Fed has been trying to tighten.
Bloomberg Radio New York Show
Fresh update on "treasury" discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York Show
"Traders also giving a lukewarm response to data that bolstered bets the Fed's done with its hiking cycle, and treasury yields are, well, they're actually higher on that data. Meantime, Russ Costridge at BlackRock says stocks can push higher. Rates are coming down. Inflation appears to be moderating, but there's still not evidence, or at least not a lot of evidence, that the economy is going to close so quickly that you've got to really be concerned about a recession in early 2024. Our view is the economy is slowing, but it's relatively stable, and we're going to see growth into the first half of next year. And Apple facing a revived pro will be in Europe over its dominance in mobile browsers and cloud gaming. It shares right now among the most active down about three tenths of a percent. S &P 500 is still on track for one of its biggest November gains on record.
Simply Bitcoin
A highlight from US Government Succeeds in Criminalizing Bitcoin Privacy | EP 867
"You You're against freedom Yeah, welcome to another episode of simply Bitcoin live your number one source for the peaceful Bitcoin revolution car breaking news culture medic warfare We will be your guide through the separation of money and say and today is one of those episodes We're gonna talk about the separation of money and state the US government's attack. Well, I can't say that that's not a fair characterization Some members of the US government took advantage of the tragedy happening in the Middle East to and their allies in the legacy corporate media to Take advantage of what's happening to really pass through this narrative that a Bitcoin and crypto was being used to fund terrorism and Then that led to the FinCEN which is part of the Treasury to recommend these Broad regulations that I have no idea how that is gonna be enforced But whatever that essentially would make it so that every single Basically every single Bitcoin transaction how it currently stands would have to be reported now after the fact it came out that the article Was blatantly false it was misrepresented and misrepresented the data, but that didn't matter right the FinCEN proposal stayed There's currently an open comment period which I highly suggest you get involved in just like leave your thoughts But it seems like they got away with it because essentially Without the proposal even being introduced. What ended up happening is that already some financial institutions are already blocking Certain Bitcoin transactions that are involved in coin mixing so if you samurai if you use wasabi and then you send that Bitcoin to a An exchange it might get flagged right now. There was a huge amount of backlash over the last week Basically putting the blame on the exchanges Or on some exchanges in particular But the thing is what you guys have to understand is that exchanges aren't banks right as long as there's the on and off -ramp choke point and as long as People are using legacy banks to buy Bitcoin That is a choke point and that is a choke point that governments are gonna take advantage of I think moments like these highlights the importance of really understanding How to use Bitcoin peer -to -peer how to download peer -to -peer or how to use peer -to -peer alternatives like bisque And like a steco huge fan of a beauty on is doing with the steco But yeah, this is part of it. This is part of the separation of money and state and the thing that aggravates me the most is The fact that they were able to really pass this narrative even though is completely false and Without it being even introduced Banks and financial institutions are taking these preemptive measures which is absolutely crazy and then it's the continuation of privacy, which is Completely against the fourth amendment in the United States, which is no unreasonable search and seizure That just completely got thrown out the window But I mean look this is Exactly what you would expect As you know, the the the example that I always bring up is like a wounded animal trapped into a corner That's when they get most vicious, right? and I think that whether is Elizabeth Warren's Freudian slip a couple weeks ago where she's Christine desperation Lagarde's when she's saying that the CBDC is coming and it's here to stay and there's absolutely nothing you could do about it Or whether she even gets caught saying the quiet part out loud saying that Bitcoin is an escape valve, right? There's multiple signs that show you That the powers of be the people that want you to use fiat currencies in the future of fiat currencies which are central bank digital currencies are Absolutely terrified of Bitcoin but most importantly not only are they terrified of Bitcoin They're terrified of people taking self -custody of their money which won't allow them to confiscate it easily either do either either through direct confiscation or Confiscation through inflation because that's really what inflation is at the end of the day.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 12:00 11-14-2023 12:00
"Business stories aren't just about business, they're also about policy, politics, finance, and more. With Bloomberg, you stay informed on global coverage that connects the dots. The Bloomberg mobile app now features Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, so you can get the latest live radio, podcasts, and audio articles in the car. Download the Bloomberg mobile app now to get started. Find it in the Apple App Store or on Google Play. Bloomberg in -car apps are sponsored by Interactive Brokers. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. Why were the economists so wrong? What are the economists getting wrong? Isn't this a slam dunk time to buy U .S. treasuries? Soft landing, hard landing, no landing. I don't know. True. What the heck does that mean? I don't know. Breaking Market News. An insight from Bloomberg experts. We're going to be in an environment with higher rates for longer. The five day in office work week is effectively dead. It's definitely a good sign that we're not ready to land this economy just yet. This is Bloomberg Markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Radio. All right, coming up in this hour, we're going to break down those Home Depot earnings. We do that with Drew Redding. He's a research analyst, covers all the builders and all that adjacent stuff where Bloomberg Intelligence. Plus, we're going to have our C -suite conversation today with Jerome Silvain, CFO at Dexcom. Talk about that company, its initiatives in healthcare, specifically for diabetes. Dude, they've done well, even in the face, at least yesterday, in the face of the Ozempic results. I thought it was really interesting that that stock was able to rally. They were up almost 5 % yesterday.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Rising Venture Capital Investment in Crypto
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group and PayPal. It's Tuesday, November 14th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Crypto as Macro Now newsletter on Substat. On today's show, we're talking about new inflows into the crypto ecosystem, inflation, and more. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice and turn on notifications. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto prices were heading down earlier today, but then we got some good news on the US inflation. I'll talk more about this in a moment. This has turned the mood around, with many assets clawing back some of the day's losses. According to CoinDesk indices, at 9 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was trading at $36 ,546, down almost 1 % over the past 24 hours, although up 1 .5 % over the past hour alone. Ether was trading down 0 .75 % over the past 24 hours at $2 ,043. Elsewhere, Cosmos, Filecoin, and the Lido DAO token were down 9%. Solana and Polkadot were down 3 .5%. Ripple's XRP token had an interesting day yesterday. A tweet reported that BlackRock had filed for an XRP trust in Delaware. This was taken as a sign that the asset manager was planning to file a proposal for a spot XRP ETF, and the asset jumped 12 % in just a few minutes. The news turned out to be fake, however. I mean, it's very, very unlikely BlackRock would file for an ETF based on asset that not only doesn't have a CME derivatives market, but is still in active securities litigation. Needless to say, the XRP price corrected sharply shortly after, with both moves triggering significant losses in derivatives positions. Earlier today, XRP was still up over the past 24 hours, but only around 1%. In macro indicators, the US inflation data for the month of October is in. And it came in soft, which is very good news. To recap, in September, the headline CP index increased by 3 .7%, and consensus estimates for October pointed to a 3 .3 % increase. That itself would have been good. But the number came in even softer, at 3 .2%. Even more relevant for the US Federal Reserve is the Core CPI index, since this strips out the volatile components of food and energy. In September, Core CPI jumped by 4 .1 % year on year, and expectations were for that rate of increase to hold steady in October. The actual figure came in at 4 .0%, the smallest increase since September 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shelter accounted for the bulk of the increase in the Core Inflation Index, but much less so than expected. And it seems lower energy prices are also doing their bit. On a monthly basis, Core CPI grew by 0 .2%, less than expected. This brings the three -month average monthly gain down to 0 .3%, lower than last year's average of 0 .5%. The average needs to come down further to give the Fed some breathing room, but it is progress. A US rate hike at the December FOMC meeting was unlikely anyway, given market tension, geopolitical fragility, and the likelihood of a government shutdown starting this weekend. This release now takes that totally off the table. As we head into record, US yields are heading down fast, with the 10 -year Treasury yield plummeting as investors were holding their breath for the inflation report. The good news in the figures has given the market a jolt of energy, with futures pointing to a very strong open. European indices were more positive yesterday, with the FTSE 100 up 0 .9%, the German DAX up 0 .6%, and the Euro Stoxx 600 up 0 .75%. The US figures are extending this trend for the DAX and the as investors digest the UK cabinet reshuffle. In Asia, stocks were cautiously positive today, with both Japan's Nikkei index and China's Shanghai Composite climbing 0 .3 % and the Hang Seng losing almost 0 .2%. In commodities, oil continues to head up, despite a report out this morning from the International Energy Agency that insists global oil markets won't be as tight as expected this quarter. The agency recognizes that demand is growing, as OPEC said yesterday, but non -OPEC supply apparently is growing even more. The market doesn't seem convinced yet, however, and the Brent crude benchmark is up 0 .4 on the day, trading at $83 .67 a barrel. After falling more than 1 % yesterday, gold today is benefiting from a drop in the $DXY index, as US yields digest the good inflation figures. Earlier today, gold was trading up over 0 .5 % at $1 ,956 per ounce. Stay with us. After the break, we're going to talk about new crypto investment.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | Rising Venture Capital Investment in Crypto
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group and PayPal. It's Tuesday, November 14th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Crypto as Macro Now newsletter on Substat. On today's show, we're talking about new inflows into the crypto ecosystem, inflation, and more. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice and turn on notifications. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto prices were heading down earlier today, but then we got some good news on the US inflation. I'll talk more about this in a moment. This has turned the mood around, with many assets clawing back some of the day's losses. According to CoinDesk indices, at 9 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was trading at $36 ,546, down almost 1 % over the past 24 hours, although up 1 .5 % over the past hour alone. Ether was trading down 0 .75 % over the past 24 hours at $2 ,043. Elsewhere, Cosmos, Filecoin, and the Lido DAO token were down 9%. Solana and Polkadot were down 3 .5%. Ripple's XRP token had an interesting day yesterday. A tweet reported that BlackRock had filed for an XRP trust in Delaware. This was taken as a sign that the asset manager was planning to file a proposal for a spot XRP ETF, and the asset jumped 12 % in just a few minutes. The news turned out to be fake, however. I mean, it's very, very unlikely BlackRock would file for an ETF based on asset that not only doesn't have a CME derivatives market, but is still in active securities litigation. Needless to say, the XRP price corrected sharply shortly after, with both moves triggering significant losses in derivatives positions. Earlier today, XRP was still up over the past 24 hours, but only around 1%. In macro indicators, the US inflation data for the month of October is in. And it came in soft, which is very good news. To recap, in September, the headline CP index increased by 3 .7%, and consensus estimates for October pointed to a 3 .3 % increase. That itself would have been good. But the number came in even softer, at 3 .2%. Even more relevant for the US Federal Reserve is the Core CPI index, since this strips out the volatile components of food and energy. In September, Core CPI jumped by 4 .1 % year on year, and expectations were for that rate of increase to hold steady in October. The actual figure came in at 4 .0%, the smallest increase since September 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shelter accounted for the bulk of the increase in the Core Inflation Index, but much less so than expected. And it seems lower energy prices are also doing their bit. On a monthly basis, Core CPI grew by 0 .2%, less than expected. This brings the three -month average monthly gain down to 0 .3%, lower than last year's average of 0 .5%. The average needs to come down further to give the Fed some breathing room, but it is progress. A US rate hike at the December FOMC meeting was unlikely anyway, given market tension, geopolitical fragility, and the likelihood of a government shutdown starting this weekend. This release now takes that totally off the table. As we head into record, US yields are heading down fast, with the 10 -year Treasury yield plummeting as investors were holding their breath for the inflation report. The good news in the figures has given the market a jolt of energy, with futures pointing to a very strong open. European indices were more positive yesterday, with the FTSE 100 up 0 .9%, the German DAX up 0 .6%, and the Euro Stoxx 600 up 0 .75%. The US figures are extending this trend for the DAX and the as investors digest the UK cabinet reshuffle. In Asia, stocks were cautiously positive today, with both Japan's Nikkei index and China's Shanghai Composite climbing 0 .3 % and the Hang Seng losing almost 0 .2%. In commodities, oil continues to head up, despite a report out this morning from the International Energy Agency that insists global oil markets won't be as tight as expected this quarter. The agency recognizes that demand is growing, as OPEC said yesterday, but non -OPEC supply apparently is growing even more. The market doesn't seem convinced yet, however, and the Brent crude benchmark is up 0 .4 on the day, trading at $83 .67 a barrel. After falling more than 1 % yesterday, gold today is benefiting from a drop in the $DXY index, as US yields digest the good inflation figures. Earlier today, gold was trading up over 0 .5 % at $1 ,956 per ounce. Stay with us. After the break, we're going to talk about new crypto investment.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 05:00 11-14-2023 05:00
"Investment Advisors switch to interactive brokers for lowest cost global trading and turnkey custody solutions. No ticket charges and no conflicts of your interests at IBKR dot com slash RIA. This is Bloomberg Radio. From the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios, this is Bloomberg Daybreak for Tuesday, November 14th. And Israel ramps up its ground war against Hamas. That's as Israel supporters come out in force with a march in Washington. A critical 24 hours as Congress tries to avert a government shutdown. And Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are set to announce a deal to crack down on fentanyl. Donald Trump Jr.'s testimony on the witness stand and his family civil fraud case. Plus, the Supreme Court put in place its first formal code of ethics. I'm Michael Barr. More ahead. I'm John Stash, Aaron Swartz. The Knicks lost in Boston, the Islanders lost in Edmonton Monday Night Football. The Broncos upset the bill. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 99 1 Washington, D .C., Bloomberg 106 1 Boston, Bloomberg 960 San Francisco, Sirius XM 121 and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow and U .S. stock index futures are higher this morning. S &P futures up two tenths of a percent, about nine points. Dow futures up a tenth of a percent or 40 points. NASDAQ futures up three tenths of a percent or 44 points. Ten year Treasury yield four point six one percent. Nathan, Karen, let's get you caught up on what's happening in the Middle East. The focus is turning to hospitals in Gaza, where Israel accuses Hamas of housing command centers and weapons. President Biden says the Al -Shifa hospital.
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
A highlight from Weekly News Block: U.S. Credit Risk, Treasury Auction Disaster, Worlds Largest Bank Hacked, FDIC Party Culture Exposed, US Population Growth Near Zero
"Welcome to the CoinStories news block. I'm Natalie Brunell and in the span of just 10 minutes, roughly the same time it takes to mine a new Bitcoin block, I'll provide you with concise, insightful updates on Bitcoin and the global financial landscape so you're well informed on the week's top stories. Everything you need to know in one place in one block. Let's go. We're all familiar with a credit score. It determines how risky or non -risky it is to lend to us. And the government has one of these scores, too. Only the United States credit rating seems to be getting worse. In fact, at least 10 countries now have a higher credit rating than us, and we may be on the verge of another downgrade. The credit rating agency Moody's announced last week that it has cut its outlook on the U .S. from stable to negative, citing a combination of rising interest rates, government spending that's gone through the roof, aka a mountain of debt, and increased political polarization. Moody's is basically saying what we all know, that our financial situation has become a hot mess and it's getting more unsustainable, unpredictable, and unaffordable. Now, to be clear, Moody's didn't downgrade the U .S. just yet. They only changed the outlook to negative. But this could be a sign that a downgrade might be on the horizon if things don't improve soon, and that can have a real impact on markets. When a credit rating agency downgrades a country, it means it's more risky than before to hold the debt of that nation, given the future outlook of its finances and economy. Moody's is actually the only top credit rating agency that hasn't downgraded the U .S. government yet from AAA. Fitch downgraded the U .S. in August, and the S &P Global rating stripped the U .S. of the top rating back in 2011 in the wake of the global financial crisis. And this has many people talking, because these credit rating agencies have largely ignored the precarious state of the United States balance sheet for years, continuing to give us top ratings despite the government running up its debt to more than $33 trillion.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 05:00 11-13-2023 05:00
"Financial advisors, are you looking to add or switch custodians? Are you going independent? Interactive Brokers provides lowest cost trading and turnkey custody solutions for all size firms. Trade globally from a single integrated master account with no ticket charges, no custody fees, no minimums, and no tech platform or reporting fees. Plus, IBKR has no advisory team or prop trading group to compete with you for your clients. Switch to the custody solutions that work for you at IBKR .com slash RIA. In sports, the Jets lost in Las Vegas, the Giants blown out in Dallas, home wins with the Knicks, Nets, and Rangers. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moskow, and S &P futures are lower this morning, down a quarter percent or 10 points, down futures that'll change, NASDAQ futures down three tenths of a percent or 48 points, and the 10 -year Treasury yields 4 .62 percent. Nathan. Karen, we'll have more on the markets in a moment, but let's get the latest developments on the war in the Middle East. The U .S. has conducted airstrikes in eastern Syria on targets linked to Iran. Those strikes come as talks intensify.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 18:00 11-12-2023 18:00
"Financial advisors, are you looking to add or switch custodians? Are you going independent? Interactive Brokers provides lowest cost trading and turnkey custody solutions for all size firms. Trade globally from a single integrated master account with no ticket charges, no custody fees, no minimums, and no tech platform or reporting fees. Plus, IBKR has no advisory team or prop trading group to compete with you for your clients. Switch to the custody solutions that work for you at IBKR .com slash RIA. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Monday, November 13th in Hong Kong. Sunday, November 12th in New York. And coming up today, the U .S. says restoring military ties with China is a priority at this week's meeting between President Biden and Xi. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans to visit China again next year. Chinese tech giants Alibaba and JD .com report sales increases for single stay. Hostage talks between the leaders of the U .S. and Qatar. Netanyahu says his ground offensive is saving lives in Gaza. U .S. attacks are on targets in Syria, some compromise on U .S. funding. I'm Ed Baxter with Global News. Manchester City moves atop the Premier League table with a draw versus Chelsea. I'm Dan Schwartzman. I'll have that story and more coming up in Bloomberg Sports. Hi, everybody.
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
A highlight from James Lavish: Disaster in Bond Market Auction, Chinese Bank Hack, Bitcoin Price and ETFs
"It was ugly. I mean, it was a wake up call. And if you don't think that the Treasury was scrambling around wondering what the heck is going on, you're crazy. Hello, and welcome to the Coin Stories podcast, where we get to explore the future of money, business, technology, and Bitcoin's revolutionary promise to boost economic prosperity around the world. I'm Natalie Brunell, and I'm here to learn with you. This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only. None of the discussions should constitute as official investment advice, and you should always do your own research. Please make sure you're subscribed to the show and hit that notifications button so you never miss out on any new episodes. This show is made possible and the content is free thanks to partnerships with companies I trust. And I'm very picky about who I choose to partner with. So I hope you take the time to listen to the ad reads throughout the show. Thanks for joining me. And if you're watching this on YouTube and want to see more videos like it, make sure to hit that like button. All right, it's time for the show. The debt spiral is accelerating. Welcome back to the show. I'm doing a last minute episode with macro analyst James lavish, author of the information as newsletter. James, thanks so much for joining me. Oh, it's great to be here. Natalie, always good to talk to you. Well, before we go into this disastrous 30 year Treasury auction, which I want to learn all about, let's start with what happened last week because the Treasury made an announcement about how much it's going to need to borrow. So why don't you fill us in on that first? Yeah, so the Treasury has to have this refunding every single quarter and they announce what they're going to do. They kind of give the market a signal so people can prepare. The investors can can can get ready for the auctions that are going to be kind of coming up. And so last week there was there was the Fed was talking. They were giving their their decision on the rates. And on the same day, the Treasury was giving this release or going to release this information to the street and tell them what the plan was. Well, it was it's been so important. What's been going on in the US Treasury is that almost all of the spotlight was on this on Wednesday. It was not on Powell for the first time in a very long time. As you know, you've been you've been watching this for a while. And and so it was it was pretty surprising. But in reality, it's not that surprising to people like me and some other investors who have been watching the bond market pretty closely recently. And what happened was they announced that they were going to borrow seven hundred and seventy six billion dollars, a few billion dollars less than the market expected. That's number one. And so the market fourth quarter. Right. That's the fourth quarter. And so the market got took that is OK. That's that's good. So maybe they have spending under control. But just remember that we are running a two trillion dollar deficit right now. So that's that spending is not under control. But the second thing they did is they announced that they would be borrowing on the shorter end of the curve. They would continue to be putting out T -bills and shorter term notes so that they would be able to draw capital out of the reverse repo facility. We'll talk about that in a minute. But basically, they were saying they're going to be borrowing on the short end of the curve, not as much on the long end of the curve, like they're not going to be borrowing at first. They're not going to be issuing 30 year bonds, quite as as many of them as the market expected. In reality, they announced they were going to borrow another twenty three billion and or twenty four billion. And the past auction was like twenty three billion. It's in line with and maybe a little bit less than what the street expected. Remember, everything that the market works around expectations. You've seen this happen all the time. If a company comes out with dismal earnings, but they were a little bit less worse than people expected, the stock could actually go up. It's just the way that the street works.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | What Would It Take to Get Bitcoin to $40K?
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group and PayPal. It's Friday, November 10th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from Coindesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, Coindesk collaborator and author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about crypto market dynamics, a possible Ether spot ETF, a shift in rates expectations, and more. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice and turn on notifications. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. In crypto markets, yesterday saw a bit of a narrative pivot. After Bitcoin's strong surge yesterday, it pulled back, but is still up almost 6 % over the past week. According to Coindesk Indices, at 9 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was down eight tenths over the past 24 hours, trading at $36 ,962. Ether was where most of the large cap action was. Earlier today, Ether was up almost 8%, trading at $2 ,074. It is up 15 % over the past week. Ether's strong outperformance this week, yesterday and today, can be attributed to the news that BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, has filed for an Ether spot ETF. This step makes sense as, in principle, the same market factors that would approve a Bitcoin spot ETF are present for Ether. The asset is not as large in market cap or as liquid as Bitcoin. That is not a prerequisite for an ETF wrapper. And nor should the proposal be impacted by the lack of regulatory clarity around Ether, whether or not it is a security. The ETF shares will be securities. The underlying asset could be or not. It shouldn't matter. The SEC will be mainly concerned with market transparency, which is essentially the same for both assets. There could, however, be some issues around whether or not staking rewards could be distributed. That might become a legal question. As with Bitcoin, a listed spot Ether ETF in the US could bring in a lot of new demand, especially since Ether has notably underperformed Bitcoin so far this year. It's still early days in this process, and obviously the ecosystem can't count on SEC chair Gary Gensler's cooperation. But it's a very interesting development that could have an impact on the relative performance of Ether going forward. It seems to also be impacting what are known as Ethereum ecosystem tokens. Optimism is up 7 % over the past 24 hours. Arbitrum is up 4%. And the Lido DAO token is up 17%. In macro indicators, earlier this week, I talked about why we should pay attention to what US Federal Reserve officials are saying. Today, I'm going to focus on one particular official, Fed chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at an IMF conference yesterday, Chair Powell sounded more hawkish than many had expected. Hawkish in Fed speak means talking interest rates up, while dovish talk suggests rates will come down. I don't know where these terms came from, but I think of it as hawks generally fly higher than doves. Anyway, back to Powell. Many were expecting to hear the same sort of neutral tone that he had at the recent FOMC press conference, in which he said that long -term US yields could take care of some of the necessary tightening of economic conditions. Back then, 10 -year Treasury yields were above 4 .9%. Since then, largely encouraged by Powell's remarks and by signs that the jobs market is finally cooling, yields have corrected sharply, down to below 4 .5 % yesterday. So, it's fair to assume that maybe the Federal Reserve won't be so confident that it can pause because long -term yields are high when they're coming down. Sure enough, Powell's words yesterday included phrases such as, and I quote, if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so, end quote. Powell also stressed that the Fed was not confident that it had achieved the appropriate policy stance to bring inflation down to 2%. Basically, this was Powell telling the market that it was wrong to assume peak rates were in. Sure enough, yields started heading up again, passing above 4 .6 % yesterday. This morning, they are settling back and are currently at 4 .57%. Stocks also reacted, more than undoing the week's gains. In the US, the S &P 500 dropped 0 .8%, the NASDAQ dropped almost 1%, and the Dow Jones fell by over 0 .6%. Futures this morning are pointing to a modest recovery on the open.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | What Would It Take to Get Bitcoin to $40K?
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group and PayPal. It's Friday, November 10th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from Coindesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, Coindesk collaborator and author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about crypto market dynamics, a possible Ether spot ETF, a shift in rates expectations, and more. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice and turn on notifications. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. In crypto markets, yesterday saw a bit of a narrative pivot. After Bitcoin's strong surge yesterday, it pulled back, but is still up almost 6 % over the past week. According to Coindesk Indices, at 9 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was down eight tenths over the past 24 hours, trading at $36 ,962. Ether was where most of the large cap action was. Earlier today, Ether was up almost 8%, trading at $2 ,074. It is up 15 % over the past week. Ether's strong outperformance this week, yesterday and today, can be attributed to the news that BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, has filed for an Ether spot ETF. This step makes sense as, in principle, the same market factors that would approve a Bitcoin spot ETF are present for Ether. The asset is not as large in market cap or as liquid as Bitcoin. That is not a prerequisite for an ETF wrapper. And nor should the proposal be impacted by the lack of regulatory clarity around Ether, whether or not it is a security. The ETF shares will be securities. The underlying asset could be or not. It shouldn't matter. The SEC will be mainly concerned with market transparency, which is essentially the same for both assets. There could, however, be some issues around whether or not staking rewards could be distributed. That might become a legal question. As with Bitcoin, a listed spot Ether ETF in the US could bring in a lot of new demand, especially since Ether has notably underperformed Bitcoin so far this year. It's still early days in this process, and obviously the ecosystem can't count on SEC chair Gary Gensler's cooperation. But it's a very interesting development that could have an impact on the relative performance of Ether going forward. It seems to also be impacting what are known as Ethereum ecosystem tokens. Optimism is up 7 % over the past 24 hours. Arbitrum is up 4%. And the Lido DAO token is up 17%. In macro indicators, earlier this week, I talked about why we should pay attention to what US Federal Reserve officials are saying. Today, I'm going to focus on one particular official, Fed chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at an IMF conference yesterday, Chair Powell sounded more hawkish than many had expected. Hawkish in Fed speak means talking interest rates up, while dovish talk suggests rates will come down. I don't know where these terms came from, but I think of it as hawks generally fly higher than doves. Anyway, back to Powell. Many were expecting to hear the same sort of neutral tone that he had at the recent FOMC press conference, in which he said that long -term US yields could take care of some of the necessary tightening of economic conditions. Back then, 10 -year Treasury yields were above 4 .9%. Since then, largely encouraged by Powell's remarks and by signs that the jobs market is finally cooling, yields have corrected sharply, down to below 4 .5 % yesterday. So, it's fair to assume that maybe the Federal Reserve won't be so confident that it can pause because long -term yields are high when they're coming down. Sure enough, Powell's words yesterday included phrases such as, and I quote, if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so, end quote. Powell also stressed that the Fed was not confident that it had achieved the appropriate policy stance to bring inflation down to 2%. Basically, this was Powell telling the market that it was wrong to assume peak rates were in. Sure enough, yields started heading up again, passing above 4 .6 % yesterday. This morning, they are settling back and are currently at 4 .57%. Stocks also reacted, more than undoing the week's gains. In the US, the S &P 500 dropped 0 .8%, the NASDAQ dropped almost 1%, and the Dow Jones fell by over 0 .6%. Futures this morning are pointing to a modest recovery on the open.
The Breakdown
A highlight from ETF Excitement Drives Bitcoin Past $36,000
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, November 9th, and today we are talking about Bitcoin's breakout and all of the bullish sentiment shift. But, before we get into that, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit .ly slash breakdown pod. Hello friends. Well, yesterday, as you know, we pivoted to bullishness, put the SPF trial behind us, and faced firmly forward, and boy, has today extended the excitement. So much so that I'm actually not even really covering the biggest bull thing from today, which is BlackRock registering an Ethereum spot ETF that happened just as I was finishing, so I am sure that that will be front and center tomorrow. For now, let's kick off today with a tweet from Steven Lubka, who's the Managing Director and Head of Private Clients and Family Offices at Swan. He tweets, I love how Bitcoin itself determines how busy my day is going to be. Today is going to be crazy. Thanks for almost cracking $37k overnight. So let's start this report with the ETF speculation. Grayscale has opened talks with the SEC in an attempt to finally move forward with the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin trust into an ETF. Grayscale sources said the company is now in active discussions with the SEC's division of trading and markets and the division of corporate finance. Both divisions play a key role in deciding ETF applications. Now, Grayscale, of course, won its lawsuit against the SEC in August, with the court ruling that the SEC must reconsider the firm's application to convert GBTC. If the SEC wanted to deny the application, it would need to come up with some new reasons after their existing rationale was found to be arbitrary and capricious. Craig Salm, Grayscale's chief legal officer, said, Right now, we're just laser focused on constructively re -engaging with trading and markets. There are still things that have to be worked through. He added that, Overall, it's been good engagement and it's a matter of when, not a matter of if anymore. Grayscale CEO Michael Sonenshine also confirmed that discussions with the SEC have commenced. He told Bloomberg that his team have been busy filing the required documents, which quote, When pressed for a timeline for approval, Sonenshine chuckled, noting that, Timelines are certainly not something that has been discussed, but what I can tell you is that the SEC is constructively engaging at the moment. We remain optimistic that we will get through any final hurdles that need to be there and our investors will finally get what they've been waiting for. Now, the market, for its part, clearly thinks the conversion is likely to be approved. The GBTC discount has now closed to 12 % from over 40 % back in June. It's the smallest discount since November of 2021. Now, widening to the rest of the pool of potential ETFs, Bloomberg analysts reported that the SEC has a brief eight -day window to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs at the same time, which begins today. ETFs are generally not approved while they are still open for public comment following an SEC decision. That comment period concluded today for seven of the ETFs, which were delayed as a group in late September. James Safart, one of the Bloomberg ETF analysts, followed up in a Twitter thread explaining that, If the agency wants to allow all 12 fliers to launch, as we believe, this is the first available window since Grayscale's court victory was affirmed. Now on November 17th, comment periods will reopen for three of the applications from GlobalX, Hashdex, and Franklin Templeton when they hit their next SEC deadline for approval or delay. That would leave the SEC able to approve only nine of the 12 applications until January. Safart, with some assistance from finance lawyer Scott Johnson, added some extra detail to the situation. They explained that there are two approvals required before the ETFs can begin trading. The SEC would need to approve the proposed rule changes, and then a separate division of the regulator would need to sign off on product disclosure forms known as an S -1. Johnson tweeted, If there's a hypothetical approval this week, there's probably minimum a month and probably a couple before any ETF actually launches. S -1's still under review and no real hard deadline for that process. Though I consider it more a formality at that stage. Would be a wild period. Safart agreed, stating that possible and even likely that there could be weeks or even months between approval and launch. This is in line with comments made by Valkyrie CIO Stephen McClurg last week, who said, A late November approval likely means a February launch. Now his view was that the SEC would likely wait until the new year to ask firms to put finishing touches on their S -1 filings before they were given the green light. Adding a little more intrigue to the process, SEC chair Gary Gensler released another one of his little videos. This one was an explanation of the Division of Corporation Finance, the group which has recently been giving feedback on ETF applicants on their S -1s. Gensler emphasized that the SEC is a quote merit neutral regulator. He explained that the basic bargain of US capital markets is that quote, investors get to decide what risk they take so long as public companies make complete and truthful disclosure. Now of course, the timing of this could be nothing, but some viewed it as a meaningful indication of what has been going on behind closed doors at the SEC. Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balcones tweeted, Could be a coincidence, but probably not. They did preapproval educational stuff ahead of BITO approval as well. Also, I feel like this is his way of saying, look, we aren't endorsing these ETFs, we're just trying to disclose all the possible risks so you can decide. Hands washed. Investor Adam Cochrane reiterated the point, tweeting, Usually this kind of stuff is posted by the SEC as like a disclaimer before they approve things they don't like. For example, last time was four days before they approved the BITO futures ETF. We guess this puts Bitcoin ETF approvals at less than one week now. As one final little indication that things could be moving behind the scenes at the SEC, commissioners and staff attended a closed door meeting this afternoon. The agenda included quote, institution and settlement of administrative proceedings and resolution of litigation claims. These kinds of meetings are held as needed and we don't have any further detail to confirm the commissioners are voting on ETF approvals, but holding a meeting is a much stronger indicator than not holding a meeting. To sum up, analysts' current expectations is that the entire cohort of ETFs are likely to be approved at the same time so as not to pick winners and that this could all happen as soon as this week. After that approval, disclosure statements will need to be finalized before the ETFs can be launched, which seems likely to take weeks, if not months. Notably, Bloomberg analysts have not adjusted their odds for full approvals in January up from 90%. They're also leaving their odds at an approval for this year at 70%. There's currently no real expectation that ETFs will begin trading until early next year. All commentary has carried a very prominent disclaimer that approvals are far from guaranteed, but between all of these little indications, market sentiment is clearly pointing towards a Bitcoin ETF approval. Crypto trader AvocadoToast tweeted, ETF thesis is pretty simple, 90 % odds of approval by Jan 10th could happen any day really. Announcement, immediate FOMO to speculate, scramble to search for ETF tokens on DexTools screener and Twitter, find top choice ETF because first mover most liquid highest market cap most trustworthy one, mash buy button candle loads. We all know this is going to happen. Let's just skip the song and dance. Blockworks Jason Yanowitz said, this market still severely underestimates how insane it will be to have Bitcoin ETF approvals and Bitcoin having within 60 days of each other will be obvious in hindsight. Now all of this ETF speculation has of course been extremely positive for Bitcoin price action. The market tested the $36 ,000 level for the third time late on Wednesday evening and effortlessly broke through. Bitcoin settled at a new level of around $36 ,700 overnight. Now Matrixport said earlier on Wednesday that they expected the breakout above $36 ,000 to be imminent. Following on from that correct prediction, the firm said that they believed a sustained rally to follow. Their report stated, the Santa Claus rally could start at any moment with a steady increase in buyers during US trading hours and an ongoing attempt for Bitcoin to break out. We could see prices rallying into the end of the month and year. Matrixport included some macro commentary recognizing that this Bitcoin run has been supported by dovish federal reserve messaging, reducing long -term debt issuance from the treasury and a continued slowdown in inflation. They noted that above $36 ,000 there's a lot of fresh air considering how rapidly prices collapsed in early 2022. The report stated that quote, a break above $36 ,000 could propel Bitcoin toward our next technical resistance level at $40 ,000 potentially reaching $45 ,000 by the end of 2023. Now along these same lines, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or CME, which hosts the highest volume market for Bitcoin futures in the US has continued to see a rush of trading. Open interest for Bitcoin futures has increased by 35 % over the past four weeks, moving above 100 ,000 Bitcoin for the first time. Indeed, the CME is snapping at the heels of Binance as the dominant market for Bitcoin futures trading. Binance currently has a little over 24 % of the market while the CME is closing in with 22 .7%. Now, according to K33 research, the two week price consolidation around 35 ,000 has primed bullish sentiment. Over the last two weeks, dips have been bought and Bitcoin has remained in a $2 ,000 range. That range, of course, is now broken to the upside, but the analysis still seems relevant. K33 observed that with Bitcoin range bound, altcoins have had a chance to run. We've seen numerous tokens achieve gains above 10 % in the past two weeks, which has brought the total crypto market cap back up to $1 .4 trillion for the first time since the Luna collapse. Bitcoin dominance softened slightly as a result of this altcoin run, but remained above 50%. Now, maybe most interestingly, volumes during US trading hours are dominating the market, vastly outstripping other regions. Premiums on front month options have exploded with calls settled at the end of November showing a 16 % annualized premium. ETF inflows continue to be strong, with the pro shares Bitcoin futures ETF BITO just receiving its third highest weekly inflow since November 2021. Now, despite the rush of activity in derivatives markets, Bitcoin's implied volatility remains below its three year average. This indicates that markets are priced for slow, grinding price action rather than sudden spikes.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 19:00 11-10-2023 19:00
"Interactive Brokers pays up to 4 .83 % on instantly available USD cash balances in your brokerage account. How much interest can your broker pay? Interactive Brokers' conservative and prudent risk management uniquely positions them to pay up to 4 .83 % on uninvested, instantly available USD cash balances in your brokerage account. The best informed investors choose Interactive Brokers. Rates subject to change. Visit ibkr .com slash interest rates to learn more. And the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Friday, November 10th in Hong Kong. Thursday, November 9th in New York. Coming up this hour, a hawkish Jay Powell puts markets on notice and says the Fed will tighten policy if appropriate. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Li -feng to lay the groundwork for improved economic relations, and China's top chipmaker, SMIC, reports quarterly sales below expectations. Israel agrees to Northern Gaza pause. Biden administration is hoping for more. Biden pledges auto industry efforts in EV to fight back China. New Bloomberg polls show swing state voters don't want a choice between Biden and Trump. I'm Ed Baxter with Global News. Liverpool suffers a shock defeat in a Europa League group stage match. I'm Dan Schwartzman. I'll have that story and more coming up in Bloomberg Sports. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. On Bloomberg 1130 New York. Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington, D .C. Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston. Bloomberg 960 San Francisco. Sirius XM 121. And around the world on BloombergRadio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. It's a little past nine in the morning in Tokyo, so we have trading in Japanese equities and in U .S. treasuries. And the theme today is...
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 12:00 11-09-2023 12:00
"Business stories aren't just about business, they're also about policy, politics, finance, and more. With Bloomberg, you stay informed on global coverage that connects the dots. The Bloomberg mobile app now features Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, so you can get the latest live radio, podcasts, and audio articles in the car. Download the Bloomberg mobile app now to get started. Find it in the Apple App Store or on Google Play. Bloomberg in -car apps are sponsored by Interactive Brokers. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. Why were the economists so wrong? What are the economists getting wrong? Isn't this a slam dunk time to buy U .S. treasuries? Soft landing, hard landing, no landing. I don't know. True. What the heck does that mean? I don't know. Breaking market news and insight from Bloomberg experts. We're going to be in an environment with higher rates for longer. The five day in office work week is effectively dead. It's definitely a good sign that we're not ready to land this economy just yet. This is Bloomberg Markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Radio. Matt Miller here in the Interactive Brokers studio with Bailey Lipschultz. Paul Sweeney has stepped out. He is flying down to Duke in order to, I think he's going to watch a basketball game. Is it season started? Yeah, it started. Watch a football game. He's got a board meeting. Apparently he promised me if he sees Tim Cook down there, because I think he's a board member as well, he's going to demand that Apple pay a dividend. He brings that up every time. Every time we talk Apple stocks, he's always like, get that dividend number higher. It's on his list. We're also going to talk to some really interesting guests.
Tech Path Crypto
A highlight from Robinhood Relisting Cardano, Solana, Polygon | Cathie Preps for Bitcoin ETF
"All right, so is Robinhood setting up for a bull run? Are they getting prepared for something that could be very unique in the crypto space? We're going to break all that down for you guys today. You're going to love it. My name is Paul Baron. Welcome back on the Tech Path. Before we get started, thanking our sponsor that is iTrust Capital. If you guys are looking at long -term holding and you want to do it in an IRA, this is one place you can do it. And of course, with iTrust Capital, you can do this by either locking up your ETH, your Bitcoin, put it in an IRA. It's self -directed, so you're only making trades within the IRA itself, and that's the only time you're going to incur a fee. So make sure and check it out. It's absolutely no monthly fees. All you have to do is use our link down below, get a $100 funding reward if you guys decide to go that direction. All right, so a couple of things I want to hit on here. This is Kobe Easey hitting up on Robinhood. Robinhood did their earnings yesterday, if you guys heard. They missed. I'll show you some stuff around that. But there may be a silver lining in this, and I want you to kind of follow along here. So stock officially traded below $10 on the share after missing earnings. Interestingly, Robinhood also noted a major slowdown in retail trading activity, obviously for most of the activity around crypto that's really reduced. And I think also retail traders, in essence, have also been damaged to a certain extent. But their transaction -based revenue decreased 11 % year over year, $185 million. Trading platform monthly active users dropped 16%. That's the bigger number that I don't necessarily like, down to $10 .3 million. And volatility in the stocks and crypto have been cited as the potential drivers. Okay, that's kind of the known area. And I think everybody that's following Robinhood probably understood that they were making a ton of money off of things like Doge and just crypto in general. And remember, they had to delist three of the biggest assets, and I'll talk about that in a minute, this year. And that also, I think, affected them as well. Another tweet right here, never quite understood Robinhood's business proposition. I want to play this clip for you guys to listen in, so people can kind of get a framework of how Robinhood is really set to make money in the future, because there's some things changing with them. Listen in. But how does it speak to what we're seeing across platforms right now where retail traders are concerned and where trading activity in this volatile environment is concerned? Well, to tell you frankly, I never quite understood Robinhood's business proposition because they have 10 million customers or 11 million customers, and they keep reporting losses. We interactive have brokers, has two and a half million customers, and we have about $3 billion of profits a year. So I just don't see, I don't understand. That's okay. It's okay that you don't understand, because I think there's a silver lining in here of where this is going. I want to hit on a couple of headlines here. ARK investing is and betting big on Robinhood Coinbase with over a billion dollars invested. Now, many people will say, well, I don't trust Kathy. I don't think her strategy is right. But I look at it this way. They, ARK, have been very forward about getting into innovation and really understand where innovation is going. And that, I think, is the thing that Wall Street is missing here. I want to go to another tweet right here. Now, this one goes more of a flip side of the previous clip you saw, that they didn't understand the model. Listen into this one. It's a little different of a story. Because we did have this loss. We had had a profitable quarter last quarter, monthly active users coming in below expectations. It looks like revenue is missing, even though those were up 29 % year on year. And a lot of talk about higher rates offsetting the weaker volumes. But overall, we're continuing to see some of the activity on this platform sag. Is that the right way to think about this? I actually would think it looks better than meets the eye, or basically the results are actually better than people think. So if you think about those mouths, I think they declined about 500 ,000. They went from 10 .8 to 10 .3. The decline is more muted than the decline between the first quarter and the second quarter. I think it went from 11 something to 10 .8. So you're seeing like an abating of the decline. To me, that means the first derivative is turning positive. So I would actually be less negative on the results. I'm looking at those first derivative trends, and they don't seem as bad. They give you like every month, they give you the trending update. So there's not that much surprise here. They're kind of losing the element of surprise because everybody kind of knows what they're going to report. So it's more about these sort of intricacies. Okay. Is it a buy here then as the stock sells off? Oh, 100%. You own Robinhood for the future. You don't own it for like... All right. So own it for the future. And I think the key here with this, and this is something that Cathie Wood talks about a lot, and I'll show you some clips on her, is that there's something here that could be even bigger than maybe some of the crypto plays. So I think Robinhood is poising up nicely. There is some recent news, though, in the earnings call that I think is interesting. And I want you to listen into... We're going to have a few clips of Vlad, who is their CEO, who will talk about some of the things that are coming down the pipe, but also something to watch for that I'll see if you guys can catch it. But listen to this clip right here. Robinhood could be a great place for traders to benefit from the future Bitcoin ETF. Can you maybe talk a little bit about the opportunity if it exists? Robinhood has been early to offer Bitcoin in its native form. Robinhood has really, really competitive pricing, but maybe customers aren't aware of that. So we're looking to solve that problem. We believe we have solved it. For our crypto customers, we've rolled out some changes to the user interface on mobile so that customers can clearly see the spreads that we offer on our crypto transactions. This makes it easier for customers to see their all -in cost of execution, compare it against other platforms, and see how great of a deal Robinhood is giving them. All right, so I'm going to show you a screenshot of the mobile platform. And what you'll notice here is you'll see that the spread is identified now. So it gives you the actual spread within it. And this is super important, and here's the reason why. When you look at the ETFs that will happen, all right, they're coiling up for an ETF to hit the market. There's going to be new players coming into the space that are going to say, okay, I'll go with BlackRock, I'll go with Fidelity, and here's my fees. That's the key right there is where are the fees? So what Vlad is betting on is that maybe Robinhood wins the direct access to the asset with lower fees within the Robinhood app. So he may get a bump, he, Robinhood, may get a huge bump in trading activity around all of this just because they're going to be lining up fee -wise cheaper than Coinbase and then possibly going head to head with some of these ETFs of getting direct exposure to the asset. So that's something to really pay attention to. And as it plays out for them, and I think because they're focused on that, it's pretty significant that they see something coming down the pipe. The other thing that's playing out right now is their strategy on a global perspective. Also in the coming weeks, we will launch crypto trading in the EU. Crypto benefits from a relatively clear regulatory framework in the EU, and we're excited to bring our capabilities across the pond to better serve that market. And that's going to come right on the heels of the UK brokerage launch. Just trying to understand in that context what kind of products or services that you could tangibly point to there. Would you envision kind of more assets for trading in the EU than the US? I really don't want to get ahead of the launch that's coming in a couple of weeks and tell you what the value props are going to be. But yes, in general, we do expect, given the clarity, to be able to offer a different set of assets and capabilities in Europe as in the US. Within the EU, because of the regulatory framework, it's going to set up a very interesting opportunity for Robinhood. They could energize a lot more tokens back into the platform. Likelihood, as we'll see, you know, the three horsemen, Cardano, including Polygon, and Solana, make their way back onto the platform in Europe. And could they be setting that up here in the United States as well? And don't forget, just in, Bank of England now poses allowing stablecoins as a payment option for goods and services. This is huge for what's going to happen in the EU. That gets back to the whole point. Will Robinhood be a successful platform in terms of a trading exchange within the EU? Very active overall, if you just think about the UK in general, much less some of the other emerging countries around financial services. Robinhood could end up leading the way there. This could be a big, big bonanza for hood. And I think with Coinbase, they've already kind of gone that direction. Now, of course, with all that happening and the good stuff, here's the bad stuff. Right now, US Treasury official says Biden is wanting to basically create new powers from Congress to crack down on crypto. So while everybody else is moving on and starting to understand where the growth is going to be, right now we have the US basically shooting ourselves in the foot. So this is a problem I think that we're going to have to face. At some point, Congress will be able to address this. I think that or an election. Next thing up here I want to hit on is getting Robinhood to talk about delisting relisting and tokens. Listen in. Taking the other side of that, looking at the US market, you know, you guys recently delisted some of the crypto assets. What would give you comfortability to relist some? Yeah, it's hard to say what specifically we're waiting for to give us comfort. I think that rules, rulemaking, court case data, that all helps. And of course, we'll continue to push for regulatory clarity because I think it would be a shame for the innovation that we've been seeing in crypto to be co -opted overseas. I think it's very, very important for the US to remain a leader in every new technology and industry that we possibly can. Now, remember, all the way back here in June of 2023, this is when Robinhood ended support for Solana Polygon and Cardano. And this, of course, was because of the SEC's crackdown on some of these additional tokens. Now, remember that. You take that, and then you take the opportunity of coiling up with what could be prepping for an ETF and or the win, obviously, with Ripple and most likely the Coinbase case that will be very critical of Robinhood being able to relist some of these assets and things change again over there. I want to go to a clip real quick. And this is talking about how Cathie Wood perceives Robinhood as a growth vehicle. Listen in. Robinhood, along with Coinbase and Block, the three of them we think are in the running for dominating potentially the digital wallet space. Robinhood is very user friendly. It could become either the digital wallet. More likely it will become a part of a digital wallet ecosystem, either alone, standalone or in partnership and in partnership with someone or as part of someone else. Taking a look at some of the stocks here, I just want to take a look at Coinbase. They had reported $674 million in revenue. Their estimate was $650. So they over indexed there. That was great. If you look at Hood, just to give you an idea of what happened here on theirs, they had reported $467 million. The estimate expectation was around $480. So that was the big problem. And obviously what you're seeing right now in terms of the stock bleeding out. So is this the time to look at Hood more of a long -term play? Maybe this is it. If you look at, and I'll go to the daily here and I'll really kind of squeeze out into time. And you can kind of see from where Hood has come from all the way down. We'll go up to back here in 2021 when really they were at the peak of the market, when all that Doge community was going like crazy. Bitcoin was flying. And of course, crypto services and crypto fees were being transaction on Robinhood in a big way. But the slide down, is this maybe the bottom? The last time they hit this range was around $765 back in December of last year. And then prior to that, it was in June of 22. So very interesting positions right now for Robinhood. If in fact they are lining up for a bonanza around the ETF and taking advantage of this next evolution of regulation. All this could be playing in. Make sure and stay tuned right here for all that good stuff. We'll continue to cover these kind of topics. If you guys are not in the diamond circle already, make sure and get in. It's another place where you can catch additional content. We have two podcasts over there now. And they're basically not available on YouTube. So you've got to go over there. Just visit the link down below. You can catch them there. If you guys want to catch me out there on X, it's at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on Tech Path.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"Understanding crypto, we don't necessarily have the best track record of all of our startups and companies fulfilling their original obligations. How do we know that when we are provided with a slew of companies with on-chain T-bills, how do we know which one is a RUG? I would assume proof of reserves gets incepted here or maybe other mechanisms. How will bankless listeners, myself included, identify the RUG, UST, on-chain USC bills from the non-RUG ones? Yeah, because we know some of them are going to be RUGs. We don't even know. There are many RUGs already. And like Tether is still a question mark. Is it like, what is Tether? We don't fully know. So disclaimer, Nick is an investor in Mountain Protocol. So he has invested interest here. To differentiate a RUG from a non-RUG, you have like your total scan tokens. You can identify those because they are not licensed. They don't have a regulatory framework that you can go and look at. Like you don't know who the team is. They are anonymous. You don't have proof of reserves. So all your basic kind of like cleanups in a centralized product, which this is, if you don't see that, that's a very good tell that this is a RUG. Then you go to the design questions and who is designed properly to be this narrow bank that you can kind of trust. That goes a lot into bankruptcy remoteness. Is the asset recognized in the country where it's registered? You get into more kind of legal questions. I think lots of this is going to come out soon. Maker just issued a declaration of intent for RFPs for tokenized treasuries. So you're going to see Maker's assessment of a bunch of products in the next, there's no timeline, but I think it's going to be in the next couple of months. So that is going to be pretty cool. Steakhouse Financial. So Sebastian and Adrian and other friends of the pod did that proposal. And if Maker passes that, there's going to be an independent assessment of a bunch of products out there. Martin, why doesn't Circle go do that? Right. Is it because they can't be a narrow bank? There's many reasons. I think the first one is regulatory, right? So if Circle wanted to do this, they would have to give up their U.S. market. That's 30 percent of their issuance, but they would also have to stop trading in Coinbase. They would have to stop doing conferences in the U.S. So there's a lot of things that they would have to stop doing. But why couldn't they create like an international subsidiary, something like that, different product, that kind of thing? You're saying that would be quite the pivot, though? I think it's not only a big pivot. Reg S, you have to be a foreign issuer. It's not enough for you to be a U.S. company selling outside. If you're a U.S. company selling outside, there is a class two asset where you have to wait for 40 days after you buy it before you actually can move it. So technically they could, but the experience will be pretty bad. So that's the first reason, it's regulation. I think the second reason is the same reason why Wells Fargo pays you zero today, which is why would they? And doing that math is I'm going to cut essentially from taking 100 percent commission on the yield, right? If we think this as stake D versus CBE, right? It's 10 percent commission, 25 percent commission. Circle's commission today is 100 percent, right? And going from 100 to 10 percent, which is what basically all of the TBL issuers are getting, that's a 90 percent reduction on your revenue. It's probably not worth it. And they're making a lot of money right now, right? Hundreds of millions of dollars? The question is, who makes more money? USDC or Ethereum? Yeah, well, what is the answer actually? Wait, I have a feeling you're smiling, so you know. Yeah, the answer is it's the same. I just checked. And if you look at like last seven days, Ethereum versus run rate for Circle, it's the same amount of money. Sorry, when you say Ethereum making money, you're using the way that we often describe it on Bankless, which is like the protocol fees that are burned, the ether that is burned on a yearly basis, like the protocol revenue. Is the equivalent to Circle? Exactly, exactly. Holy shit, Circle is printing money. Every time you pay gas, like that amount of gas, that's the same amount of money that Circle is making. Oh, my God. And Tether is three times that. So Tether alone is making more money than the whole rest of the crypto ecosystem outside centralized exchanges. This is insane. But they shouldn't. So they shouldn't be, right? So this should be passed on to the customers. This should be passed on to the users in an ideal world. Oh, that's your margin. Your margin is my opportunity. Is that what you're saying, Martin? Exactly, exactly, exactly. So that's why I think you guys did in the roll up, there's like 4 million crypto users, something like that. If you divide the Tether revenues by crypto user, that's $1,000 per user per year. Oh, my God. We're paying this in hidden costs. That's large numbers. It's not like costs. That's the thing. It's opportunity costs. It's opportunity costs. Which is equivalent to cost. It really is. People don't view it like that. Oh, my God. Wow. No shit. There's like over 10 companies trying to do this. That's why I think a trillion dollars is not a wild guess. I think lots of people are going to be, okay, this is free money. How can I get it? And the traditional system is not going to give it to them. If you're in Argentina, if you're in Brazil, if you're in Turkey, if you're in Europe even, you're not going to get this risk-free yield pass on to you. Unless you're in the US, it's very, very hard to get it. Here's the thing, though. So when you guys start up and when these kind of 10 companies doing tokenized treasuries kind of start up, you know, I expect kind of these regulations will sort of hold. Kind of make sense. But as you scale up, you're talking about numbers like trillion, okay? So you get to 1 billion. All right, you get to 10 billion. Okay, you get to 100 billion. Guess what? The IMF starts raising its eyebrows and starts saying things like financial stability. And anytime they use the term financial stability, what they actually mean is control because they don't care so much. Sorry, I'm editorializing. I feel like a lot of times when the IMF talks about financial stability, they actually just want control. And if you start creeping up towards like half a trillion dollars or trillion dollars, all right, then that word will start to be used a lot more. And this whole kind of Reg S thing might seem like it's like you get more attention. All right. And I'm wondering if they will try to put a stop to this is kind of a question. And also, I love the test here. I love that we are just pushing this to the limit because how else do we how else do we approve and improve our banking system? How else do we get rid of the inefficiency and the incumbents? But I wonder if kind of the as you scale up, the eye will start to turn towards tokenized treasuries and the kind of the regulatory climate might start to clamp down a little bit. What are you thinking about that, Martin? Tether announced, I think it was two weeks ago, that they are one of I think like if they were a country, they would be in the top 20 in terms of like treasury holdings. So Tether is a very relevant player. They have 83 billion in issuance. Most of that is collateralized by treasuries. So this is already a thing. What I see at least is the government kind of likes the fact that people are buying U.S. treasuries. And the path that at least we've taken is we want to be compliant. So if these clampdowns come, which they may come, we're going to be prepared and we're not going to be two people in a garage. We're a licensed entity by a top regulator in financial markets. Right. So it's going to be at least harder if they try to shut us down. I think there's no incentive to do so. But if it were, we want to be as prepared as we can. Well, you have to speed run real big, real fast. You have to get big real quick to the point where, you know, they don't mind so much. I love that as an acid test. The other acid test, which I don't know how it's going to work out right, is it's ironic that we're doing this entire episode. And both David and I are incredibly excited about these types of products. Right. A tokenized version of a treasury. And yet because we live in the United States, which I don't know, feels like a financial prison, we actually can't buy it. Right. Or at least we can't officially buy it. And I don't know what's going to happen with, you know, like respect to that. So if somebody accidentally dusts my account with some USDM, is Gary Gensler going to show up at my house and try to arrest me? Like, how does it work when there are some, this is probably not something that you can answer or even talk about. But it just strikes me that the more people who see people outside of the US, the more Americans who see people outside of the US owning these products, and the more American citizens realize that they are like on a list on a website with Iran and North Korea and America that can't access these products, hopefully the more we react and change the laws that we have. And so I'm excited about that test, too, because there is nothing, of course, at the protocol level that would prohibit an ETH address, no matter where it is, from actually having USDM inside of its account. So it's going to be an interesting test from that perspective, too. And I'm sure you can't comment on how all of this will unfold, but I'm excited about that. Yeah, I think we're going to test on the Reg S, the test that you're referring to is substantial US market interest. We're going to test a substantial portion, and that's where it's going to fall down. And our work is to make sure the substantial is still in check. I'm assuming the model would be grow as fast as possible, get as much TVL, AUM as possible, and then start lobbying, just lobby, get the Reg S changes. Court battles, too. Yeah, exactly. There's so many laws out there that are just asynchronous with how crypto works that eventually in the fullness of time will have to be walked back. But whether it's two years or 20 years is really the big difference. Yeah, I don't think it's going to be us lobbying. I think the US is going to look at the rest of the world and say we are the exception. Switzerland was first, Bermuda, Japan, Korea, Singapore, now the UK. Everyone is passing laws making this product something that you can actually do. And all of those regulators are uncomfortable around the compliance perspective, around the soundness of the product. So I think the US will wake up. I don't know if it's some challenge in China doing it and like a threat coming to the US or if it's something different, but I think that will change because the US is the one that's the odd get out. Yeah, no, I think that is the big force for change. One last thing we haven't touched here, Martin, and I think we'll maybe close with this question. So we haven't talked about central bank digital currency yet, which is interesting. So one, maybe if this puts kind of like the US regulatory apparatus in check and shows how outdated its laws are. One counter to that that the US might take is actually to deploy some sort of central bank digital currency that has what you're talking about, but it has kind of the narrow bank type function where actual citizens can create an account at the Fed and they get access to this yield bearing instrument. And it's kind of in its tokenized form. I don't know the full manifestation of a national tokenized ERC 20, except it may not be an ERC 20. I don't know if it'll be on a private blockchain or what, but this is the idea of a central bank digital currency. And you could see from a, I guess, a country's monetary policy perspective, it might be kind of nice to have the dials of this and like directly you could even get to, I've seen monetary policy papers talking about like negative interest rates in some different economic climates where you're actually like taking from your citizens' digital dollars, So you have this happen in Europe. OK, right. It happened in Europe, but indirectly, you could just cut out the banks entirely, I guess. And, you know, the biggest bank in the world could do that, the central bank. How do you think this all plays out? Do you think that some countries in the US or other countries might decide to leapfrog what crypto is attempting to do with a tokenized T-bill and roll out its own central bank digital currency that also has a yield instrument and a T-bill attached to it? Yeah. So this is already happening in Brazil. Brazil is designing an EVM deployed token, which is going to be their central bank digital currency. So we see this already happening in other parts of the world. The challenge is if you do this, you're doing a death blow to your whole banking system. Who's going to bank at a regional bank? If you have the risk of that falling, they're paying you zero percent and the Fed is zero risk and they're paying you the same risk-free rate. So I think getting from where we are to that in the US is going to be very, very, very challenging. I don't see it happening, at least with the way the world works today. Like, what do you do with all the banks? What do you do with loans? Who gives loans? There are so many open questions that I don't think that could go through Congress and actually pass through. So this would be the equivalent of like cannibalizing the entire US banking system, and they're not ready to take that step. But you think that tokenized T-bills as kind of stablecoin instruments in crypto can work because the US actually is incented to find net new buyers of treasuries. And so while they might not like aspects of it cannibalizing the US banking industry, so long as it's outside of the US primarily, they may kind of turn a blind eye to it because they actually like this property of new treasury demand. And that's how we sort of thread this needle with the sleeping giant here. It's the best of both worlds. You don't have to kill your banking system. You work as it is today, and you're finding net new buyers of treasuries and you're exporting the US dollar offshore. I think that the current equilibrium is pretty good for the establishment. Well, this is going to be an exciting time. And so all of these projects, including yours, are launching imminently, it seems like. So there's a couple that have launched. We're launching imminently. There's others in the pipeline. So it's going to be... This is becoming the big narrative for the second half of the year. And I think this will bring, hopefully, the next bull run because all this new demanding crypto will start in stablecoins. But then who knows where that money goes next, right? This is a take that I think Jim Bianco gave us. And I think both Ryan and I just readily accepted it, which is that crypto prices, Bitcoin, Ether, pick your favorite blue chip asset, cannot and will not go up until on-chain liquidity goes up. Stablecoins. And if this brings liquidity into Uniswap, into our layer twos, into all the splattering of layer ones, that is bullish. That's bullish. And you're about to bring a lot new buyers. It makes sense. Last bull cycle, I think the risk-free rate, the T-bill rate was something like, I don't know, 1%, you know, 2%, right? And this time it's 5%. It was 0.25%. So it was technically 0.25%. It was that low at that point in time. Yeah. And then the risk-free rate in Europe was negative. So this is the first time since crypto was born that we're actually seeing non-zero rates except for a very short period right before the pandemic. So it is the first time we see this and rates are probably going to stay high for a good time. So this is going to play out nicely. Rates are going to stay high because the time of fiat is drawing to a close. And I actually think that the business model for on-chain treasuries is also an indication of the long-term close of the fiat era because you have to charge interest rates to induce demand, blah, blah, blah, blah. Is that an acceptable take, Martin? Yeah. I don't know if the fiat cycle is to an end. Long-term. Yeah. Multiple decades. Very long-term, I think governments are going to issue their own stablecoins on-chain, right? So Argentina is going to issue Argentum on-chain. Right now there's conversations about dollar rising in Argentina. So taking out the central bank because we clearly don't know how to handle a currency and using the dollar. I think that it's insane. But like inflation in Argentina is over 100%. So it is super tough. Now, instead of going to the dollar, can you go to your own year C20 with a cap supply or with a fixed emission and automate that central bank? And some countries where the central bank is not credible, I think that's where it's going to start. Well, very cool. Martin, thanks for explaining this to us. I'm sure we'll do much more on the tokenized T-bill narrative as projects get built out and your specific instrument, Mountain Protocol is what you're calling it, and USDM. And of course, if you are a US resident and listener, you live in a financial prison, so you cannot purchase this asset anywhere, apparently. Yeah, you can go to high-yield checking events. It's stuck in that 0.15% yield account in your Wells Fargo. Sorry, guys. But very cool, Martin. This has been a lot of fun. Thanks for taking us on the tour today. Thank you, guys. Bankless Nation will include a link to the show notes. We've referenced an article that Martin wrote called, Crypto's hidden money printers goes through the business model of USDC. It's a great read. Gotta remind you, of course, none of this has been financial advice. Crypto is risky. You could lose what you put in, but we are headed west. This is Frontier. It's not for everyone, but we're glad you're with us on the Bankless journey. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"I know inside of the LST ecosystem, the liquid staking token ecosystem, there are many different ways of the value of your token going up. There's a number of different mechanisms. And so there's different design decisions as to how you actually receive the yield. The actual value of the ERC20 token could go up, like increment up over time. You could get airdropped more. You could rebase downwards. That's probably of all the different landscapes of on-chain T-bill competitors is probably a vector of competition to have the most optimized market desired one. And the biggest advantage that we have is we've become regulated. So we spent a full year getting licensed out of Bermuda. So the Bermuda Monetary Authority gave us a license to actually do this in a permissionless way. So we are a utility token that is used for payments. So in the U.S., a payment token would be the closest thing, which is redeemable one to one. And that allows us to be permissionless. Most products out there, they are permissioned, and they're adding a lending protocol in the middle as a DAO to convert permission collateral into permissionless yield via supply on the protocol. So those are the two models that you're seeing out there. So this is a bit cleaner then. How big can you grow this, Martin? It's a great question. I think it's going to be trillions, right? I think this category, regardless of whether it's USDM or other players, if you look at it in a couple of years, it's going to be multiple trillion dollar industry. I think the demand for yield-bearing dollars is going to eat out of the dollar bank deposits globally. It's going to eat out a bunch of other alternative stores of value globally. And it's stable. So it's programmable money. So you can have SMEs creating an account and holding dollars and paying their suppliers. And that money is yielding all the time. I think it's going to change massively. Nick Carter is the one who introduced us. So I'm going to put on my Nick Carter hat here. You said there's like 10 or something competitors out there who are all trying to do the same business model.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"But still like USDC is 70% overseas as in not held by U.S. people. How do they know that? That's a good question. So I took that quote from Jeremy itself. I don't know exactly, but you don't know exactly which address is from where. But there are providers that tell you these transactions are coming from IPs that are coming from these countries and you can monitor this. You don't have 100% certainty, but you have pretty good certainty about who's using your tokens and where they are. And the reason you have to monitor is because if it gets over 20% then you're outside of the bounds of the Reg S. Correct. But you can't measure it precisely. That's why we go for zero. The burden of proof is just on Circle and on you. You have the burden of proof to say that, hey, you were not violating the law. So for context, I'm not a lawyer, but how I think this is going to play out, I think there's going to be two outcomes. On one hand, you're going to have unregistered, unregulated entities probably doing some fake decentralization. What the SEC can go on point and say, this is a scheme to evade. You still have the question around substantial US market interest, but it's easier. The bar is lower to actually go after these cases. Where I think it's going to be harder is on regulated entities by respected countries, financial regulators, where there's a regulated product. There's best business efforts to kind of avoid US consumers accessing it and where you still have the no substantial US market interest, which is pretty strong. And finally, these guys like us, we're spending a lot of money on lawyers. So lawyers are pretty happy trying to protect us. I bet. Yeah, the ultimate winners of crypto are the lawyers. I didn't know that about Circle, USCC. So they need to make sure that the weight, the gravitational pull of USCC is offshore. No, they don't need to do that because it's USCC. That's USCC. USCC needs to do this. Yeah, USCC needs to do that. USCC is fine. That's just a fun fact stat. 70% is offshore. And I think, Martin, you were making the point that there's a lot of demand for dollars offshore. Just look at USDC, a US product, and yet 70% of the ownership, according to Jeremy Lehrer, maybe is offshore. You're making the point that basically for this new tokenized treasury product, hey, a lot of the demand will actually be offshore anyway. And there's no restrictions if it's kind of somebody outside of the US owning this thing. And the average Joe in the US, they have high-yield checking accounts. Those are FDIC insured. They're paying 5%. You have your Robinhood app, your public.com app. You can go and buy treasuries of 5%. So there's no reason for the average US consumer to go and buy USD. Because we're sufficiently banked, yeah. Exactly, right? There's no access problem. The banking system, with all its things, it kind of works. You can trust it. It's insured. So this is not a product aimed for US persons. I get it. Seems dumb. And at the same time, the US banking system sucks. It sucks, Martin. I would so much rather have all of my dollars into USDC and stablecoins. In fact, that's more the direction I'm going. But take your point. So I guess outside of the US, though, this is pretty free, unencumbered, works just like USDC would only. It has kind of the yield attached to it. And this looks like an ERC20 token. So it'd be available anywhere that a DeFi application is available. Is that correct? Exactly. So we're doing work to make it available in as many places as possible so that the utility of having USDM is not just having USDM. You can put it as collateral. You can swap it and access other liquidity pools. So that's the work that we're going to do after we launch on Monday. Just to finish kind of like how the token works. If you think about USDC, it's an ERC20 in the front. It's actually cash equivalents, which is literally tables in the back. This is the exact same thing. But this ERC20 rebases on a daily basis. So you get airdropped more tokens every day.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"I enjoy this image that keeps on popping up in my brain, which is you have the United States Treasury on one side, the archetypal bank with columns to allow for bankless listeners' imaginations to go. So then you have a pipe from the big bank with the columns, the United States Treasury, going into crossing the dimension between TradFi and DeFi. And that is where these on-chain T-bill companies, like your company, Martin, and the many other competitors out there, your company spans between these two planes. And so it goes into your company, and then it goes out into the world of DeFi, into the Bankmaker, Dow, Aave, you know, wherever. And so again, like, we have the shortest possible pipe between the Treasury and crypto mediated by some sort of centralized company, because that's part of the deal. That's how it goes. And then it's into DeFi. And we are cutting out the entire commercial banking layer between the Federal Reserve and DeFi. And so, like, while in bankless philosophy, we would actually call your company, Martin, a bank. But I like it because it cuts out hundreds of other banks before it spits out its product into DeFi. It does, except there is one banking party, if I'm understanding this correctly, Martin, which is like some bank, let's say, or I don't know if you call it a bank, but in Switzerland, for example. So it's not a U.S. domestic bank. It's somebody with kind of in a more, I guess, tokenized Treasury friendly jurisdiction that is set up there. So that would be the bank that would be involved. Is that right? Correct. So that would be the custodian. So they would be holding that security. We call custodians banks. We call a lot of things banks. Yeah. Perfect. And then we would fall under the typical denomination of a narrow bank, right? So narrow banks issue deposits, right? Like a stablecoin is a deposit. And we turn around and instead of issuing mortgages, card loans, credit cards, we just lend to the U.S. government. I like narrow banks. Exactly. So narrow banks, it's very, very hard for you to fail. Like if you have access to the Fed, it's literally impossible. If you have very short duration Treasuries, which is what every player out there does, like the U.S. government needs to default for you to fail. Like that's the level of certainty that you have. We would be a narrow bank, essentially. So Martin, that is a product that you are rolling out. The product that we just described, right? So tell us what you're kind of building in that product. And then I'm really curious about like, how big can you actually grow this thing? USDC, right? That's under 100 billion right now, I believe. 25 billion. Oh, okay. It's 25 billion. It went down dramatically. It's gone down a lot. What are you building? Who can access it? How big can this thing actually get? And again, this is like a tokenized ERC-20 Treasury that does not have all of the handcuffs of past tokenized Treasury instruments, right? This is what I'm understanding. Just tell us about what you're building and how big you can kind of get. So first a disclaimer. So USDM and our products are not available for U.S. consumers and restricted countries. For more information, go to mountainprotocol.com, terms and conditions, and you can read everything there. Is that Gary's fault? It's the SEC's securities laws we're reading long before Gary. So we use an exception called Reg S, which basically means if you're a foreign issuer, you don't have to register with the SEC, but you have to not sell into U.S. consumers. That means you can't sell directly into U.S. consumers. What does this mean? So I live in the U.S. I don't know if you could even answer this question. I want to buy it on Uniswap, right? Do I have the ability to go to the Uniswap protocol and actually buy some of this new tokenized T-bill thing? Or I can't because I'm a U.S. citizen or something. What stops me from doing that? So Ryan, I understand why you and many people listening to this podcast might be excited about this product. Everyone listening to this podcast is highly innovative and like trying new stuff, which this product is. However, I think you'd agree that most people in the U.S. don't understand why we need stablecoins, why we need tokenized treasuries. All of these products are kind of like odd and they don't really understand what purpose they fill in the market. And the reason is clear, right? Like you don't have an access problem in the United States. For most consumers in this podcast that are in the U.S., you can easily open a high-yield checking FDIC insured account. You can use a money market fund that you can access through your brokerage on your phone. So it's very easy to actually access this product. So what that means is there is no U.S. substantial market interest, which is a core component of the law on why we cannot offer into the U.S. The test that that law gives you is substantial market interest. The second thing I would say is for the people who are listening to this podcast that are really excited about this product, please don't use it. Every company engaged in this industry has to do best business efforts. There are several ways in which you can identify U.S. consumers. And if you are identified as such as a U.S. person, there will be each company will have different approaches, but there will be disruptions to your service. So you're not going to experience the full power of what you got to offer. And it's going to be a subpar experience versus what you can get in the traditional markets. For context, Circle, which is like super U.S. centric, has 30 percent of their assets, their U.S. ECC circulating in the U.S. So most of this is like for non-U.S. persons. Yeah, I'm confused. So I didn't know that about Circle. I want to try and get into the same conversation through a different injection point. The contract address for this on-chain T-bill ERC20 token, yours is USDM. Again, there's many other competitors out there. Yours is USDM and Tether and Circle both have blacklist functionality, but it's open by default. So by default, all the Ethereum addresses are enabled to receive the stablecoin. And then if we find out that this one particular address is North Korea, then we add them to the blacklist. That seems totally fine with me. That's aligned with nation state regulations. That's just the dance that we have to play. That's great. That's fine. Is there anything different about a on-chain T-bill smart contract address that is different from that status quo? So the function is the same. The thing that we are adding on top of that USDC or USDT typical OFAC restriction is let's say Kraken U.S. started trading this coin. We would first message Kraken and tell them to stop because they might not know that they are not allowed to do that by terms and conditions. But if they insist, we're going to block that address so that that doesn't happen. Who would be in violation? Is Kraken in this example breaking the law or are you breaking the law? Kraken is breaking the terms and conditions. Terms and conditions. Correct. So the terms and conditions of using the mountain burgle. Each asset that you hold that centralized has some sort of terms and conditions. USDT has this exact same terms and conditions. So USDT has been applying Reg S since I think 2018. And that's why it's hard to buy USDT locally in centralized exchanges and so on. I didn't know that.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"We got to interpret. Technically, Aave and Compound are margin loan automation smart contracts. So you put an asset and you take a margin loan. Money market funds is more similar to USDC would be a money market fund or USDM or a token unstable would be more of a money market fund because you put together a bunch of treasuries in there. So going back to the banks, the banks are actually, you have the top banks in the United States, the G-SIBs, those are paying you 0.15%, like you said. They're actually growing and they're not going down. The people who are paying the price are the small banks, all the regional banks, your SBBs of life, which are the ones that people are going out of. They're going either to money market funds or they're going to G-SIBs because that's where they are flying to safety or trying to get closer to the Fed. What are the banks telling the government and why this is getting stopped is if the banks don't have 0% deposits that they can acquire, then they cannot give you a mortgage at 3%. If they have to go and finance at the risk-free rate, which is 5% call it, then your mortgage has to be 7-8% and your SME loan has to be 10%. And that's what people in the US government are nervous about is what happens to the economy once the rational actor decides to go to a money market fund and what happens to all loans that were issued for mortgages, for SMEs and so on. And that's the tension that's happening. In my opinion, stopping this, like this is like water, right? Like you can put dams on it. It will inevitably happen because rational actors and people think they are the best at managing their own money and self-interested people will go where things are best. But that's the tension why it's not that obvious. Mantle, formerly known as BitDao, is the first Dow-led Web3 ecosystem, all built on top of Mantle's first core product, the Mantle network, a brand new high-performance Ethereum layer 2 built using the OP stack, but uses Eigenlayers data availability solution instead of the expensive Ethereum layer 1. Not only does this reduce Mantle network's gas fees by 80%, but it also reduces gas fee volatility, providing a more stable foundation for Mantle's applications. The Mantle treasury is one of the biggest Dow-owned treasuries, which is seeding an ecosystem of projects from all around the Web3 space for Mantle. Mantle already has sub-communities from around Web3 onboarded, like Game7 for Web3 gaming and Bybit for TVL and liquidity and on-ramps. So if you want to build on the Mantle network, Mantle is offering a grants program that provides milestone-based funding to promising projects that help expand, secure, and decentralize Mantle. If you want to get started working with the first Dow-led layer 2 ecosystem, check out Mantle at mantle.xyz and follow them on Twitter at 0xmantle. You know Uniswap. It's the world's largest decentralized exchange with over 1.4 trillion dollars in trading volume. You know this because we talk about it endlessly on bank lists. It's Uniswap, but Uniswap is becoming so much more. Uniswap Labs just released the Uniswap mobile wallet for iOS, the newest, easiest way to trade tokens on the go. With the Uniswap wallet, you can easily create or import a new wallet, buy crypto on any available exchange with your debit card with extremely low fiat on-ramp fees, and you can seamlessly swap on Mainnet, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism. On the Uniswap mobile wallet, you can store and display your beautiful NFTs, and you can also explore Web3 with the in-app search features, market leaderboards, and price charts. Or use Wallet Connect to connect to any Web3 application. So you can now go directly to DeFi with the Uniswap mobile wallet. Safe, simple custody from the most trusted team in DeFi. Download the Uniswap wallet today on iOS. There is a link in the show notes. Celo is the mobile-first, EVM-compatible, carbon-negative blockchain built for the real world. And now, something big is happening. Introducing the Celo Layer 2. It's a game-changing proposal that's going to bring Celo's rapidly growing ecosystem home to Ethereum. Vitalik has shared his excitement for the Celo Layer 2 on the Celo Forum, so has Ben Jones from Optimism. But why? The Celo Layer 2 will bring huge advantages, like a decentralized sequencer, off-chain data availability, and one-block finality. What does all that mean? Rock-solid security, a trustless bridge to Ethereum, and more real-world use cases for Ethereum without compromise. And real-world adoption is happening. Active addresses on Celo have grown over 500% in the last six months. With the Celo Layer 2, gas fees will stay low, and you can even pay for gas using ERC20 tokens. But Celo is a community-governed protocol. This means that Celo needs you to weigh in and make your voice heard. Join the conversation in the Celo Forum. Follow at Celo.org on Twitter, and visit Celo.org to shape the future of Ethereum.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"Some centralized exchanges that don't have direct commercial agreements with stablecoin issuers will also pay you so that you have money for swaps and they make money in the swap. So it could also be a marketing expense. So Coinbase, I think, is probably not the best example in this yield because it could be a marketing component rather than them passing through the yield of the TBO. But regardless, the US sort of inserts this middleman type function, I suppose. That's kind of in between, you know, the treasury and the retail market. And you're saying other jurisdictions do not have this. Other jurisdictions. So we talked about the traditional securities law model where you build a fund and the token HD bill is a share of the fund. And that is today the market cap of tokenized treasury, 600 million. Most of that follows that path. There's a second path, which is the SEWS DLT low path, where the SEWS DLT has said a stock before we had electronic system stocks were bare assets. I could change a piece of paper with you and you would be the owner of that stock. So why don't we do that with securities again? So there is a company out of Switzerland that did a prospectus and they have a tokenized security, but that's permissionless. So essentially it's very similar to like an ETF, like a gold ETF. They put a bar of gold in a safe. They give you a piece of paper. That piece of paper moves around. And if you want to claim it back, you have to do KYC and you take the bar of gold. This is the same, but for that treasury bill or that fund. And they were the first ones to be able to do permissionless treasuries. Well, I was going to ask a question about whether the US actually wants this. So one thing that's notable about a treasury is that it's kind of a product of the US government, And so is the system that you're describing in Switzerland and our scheme here to like, you just create a tokenized version of treasuries and call it USDT or something and get the 5% yield, is that contrary to what actually like US monetary policy and kind of treasury department and the feds actually want? Like, is there a reason that that product doesn't exist? And so what I'm wondering is like, whether these regulatory kind of arbitrage opportunities in say Switzerland or elsewhere, whether they might be closed at some point in time because this is counter to what US monetary and financial policy actually wants. And so they'll try to put the kibosh on it in another way. Do you have any insight into that? I have to. I think if I were the US government, I would do a 180 on this. If I could have all Argentinians transacting US dollars, it means I have forced buyers of my treasuries. That means I could sell my treasuries at a lower rate. I lower my interest expense. So therefore my budget closes nicely. And if you deal with Argentina and Turkey and all other emerging markets, you can export dollars globally. And those dollars are going to be stable coins that are holding treasuries. That is like forced buyers. They cannot take more risk. So when you're doing those auctions, the interest rates that you're going to have to pay are going to be lower. So I think it's against US interest to stop this market. Against US interest to stop this market. One of the things that we say on Bankless is like DeFi is exporting the power and the brand of the United States dollar. And I think that's what you're saying in agreement too, right? Like again, we're just connecting bigger, shorter pipes between Aave and the United States Treasury. And so like Aave is just a reseller of United States treasuries. And if you're the dollar that makes you happy, correct? Correct. Correct. And I think going a step further, going on top of treasuries, if you can bring any stock that's trading in the US and put it in crypto, now you have you expanded NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange globally. You should have an interest to do that too and have Robinhood be in 180 countries. So I think there's an interest to export the US financial system if your objective is capital market capital information. So your argument here is to answer the question of, but won't the US try to kill this? Your answer is, well, if they're rational and they actually want to export the dollar, what better way to do that than to have a tokenized version of a dollar plus yield plus risk-free rate and have that be kind of the ultimate dollar stablecoin. It's just the ultimate form of that is clearly a treasury rather than just the dollar because you get the yield embedded in that. And in a world where let's imagine this world might be close to, the US runs out of countries or banks or like pension funds, buyers in general of its treasuries. It's going to need to find new markets for this. And you're saying, hey, emerging markets like Argentina, like Turkey, maybe it's really into the global emerging markets. For them, the dollar is still a pretty strong product. You'll have net new demand from these markets in these countries. And hey, isn't that in the US interest? That's what you're saying. And if you think about it today, that demand exists. It's called the euro dollar complex. So without the US promoting it, this euro dollar complex form and it continues to expand despite it being outside of the purview of the US government. We now have swap lines and so on, so it's starting to connect. But this euro dollar, if you add stablecoins on top, you can grow it a lot more. We call them stablecoins, but really we should call them crypto dollars. Like you have euro dollars, now you have crypto dollars, but we're stuck in the stablecoin terminology. Martin, one thing I want to ask is like intuitively, yeah, like dollars produce yield. Let's get the yield into DeFi. But like kind of don't we already already have the value of yield from the United States treasury markets in DeFi, not in a direct way, but in a roundabout way, just like because overall, like slowly over time, the efficient market hypothesis does play out. And then all of a sudden, whatever yield that is being offered by the United States Treasury is through the market being offered by Aave. And then Aave turns DAI into ADI or USDC into AUSCC. And then the power of the yield of the treasury market does actually become expressed in an ERC20 token, albeit in a roundabout way. But eventually for the end user, they don't care what happens in the background, so long as they get their yield. So like, don't we already have on-chain treasuries, at least implicitly? And how does actual on-chain treasuries differ as a product? Yeah, so there's a couple of things there. The first one is it requires not only holding a stablecoin, but also participating in a DeFi protocol. If you look at the percentage of stablecoins that participate in these protocols, it's always about 20 percent. Even in the bull market, most stablecoins sit in the sidelines. So and the reason for that is it's either like experience because getting into these protocols can be risky, it's complex, requires management. It could be technical risk and adding counterparty risk to your holding, right? It really kind of neuters the whole risk-free rate thing, doesn't it? Exactly. Exactly. Right. Like we saw Curve get hacked recently. So even blue chip protocols are not totally risk-free. So you're adding additional layers of risk that you're taking. It might be worth it if they're paying you an additional interest on top of the risk-free rate. But for the risk-free rate, you wouldn't want to add counterparty risk. So taking another example of this in DeFi Martin is Maker MKR token. So they have DAI, of course, David is just talking about the stablecoin. And they have this function in their contract called the DSR, right? And that is if you park your DAI inside of the DSR, then you get yield effectively. And I'm not sure what the yield rates are lately, but I recall recently they were like 8%, for instance, right? So that was above the risk-free rate. And then kind of governance changes them. They go up or down. I guess my point about that particular product is there's not really the certainty of like treasury risk-free rate or if it's going to be below. It's kind of dependent on governance. It would be nice, I think, for a product that just very clearly tracks whatever Jerome Powell is doing. You know, kind of like the one-to-one instantly if the rates change, then you get that kind of inside of the token. So I feel like that's another plus one need. It also seems kind of cleaner, right? Because again, with something like the DSR or Aave, as David was talking about, you still have this like middleman market, right, that doesn't quite track one-to-one with what the treasury is. So it's a less clean instrument. Are these valid points as well? Super valid point. And in fact, the DSR today is the same as the risk-free rate. They're both at 5%. And the risk-free rate is at 5 point something. But if you take out the expenses that would be allocated to actually bring it on chain, it's going to be 5%. So it's 5 to 5. The difference is, on one hand, you have Maker, which has DAI, which is integrated everywhere. So it has a bunch of advantages, right? It's also decentralized for some people and some DAOs companies. That's very important. On the other hand, Maker has its own governance. It's decentralized. You don't know what Maker holders are going to vote for. You have smart contract risk that is more complex than an ERC-20. So those are the trade-offs that some of our clients are doing. And anyone thinking about buying a tokenized treasury versus putting money into DSR should think. And there's pros and cons to each of those. Yeah, right. Let's be clear. Any tokenized treasury instrument would be very centralized. Completely centralized, right? We're talking about just like USDC. That kind of instrument. And in the back end, you're holding reserves. Those reserves are physical assets that can be seized. They see it at the Fed. So even there are some protocols that have said we're going to go with T-bill collateral without any centralization. In the end, the centralization happens elsewhere in the chain. If you cannot blocklist OFAC, you're going to have the treasury come and knock your door, And in the end, the reserves are going to be the point of centralization. So to understand on-chain treasuries, like you said, I asked the question, why isn't A-DAI out of AVE just kind of the same thing in a more roundabout way? And your answer was, well, there's also smart contract risk. And so that's the difference. And then on the flip side of things, in the TradFi side of the equation, Circle and USDC, even though that could in theory become yield bearing, it's not as directly connected to being a treasury as an actual treasury. And so you have like the metaphorical middleman of MakerDAO or AVE on the DeFi side, and then you have the unknown black box that is the yield in Circle, USDC on the TradFi side of things. And so I think what you're saying is like with this on-chain T-bill, it's the most direct pipe possible on the TradFi side. And then on the DeFi side, there's no smart contract risk. It's not like a race to the bottom, but it's like a race to the logical conclusion of the shortest, fattest pipe between DeFi and treasuries with zero counterparty smart contract risk on the DeFi side. And that's probably why you said like there's over like 10 companies in a race. It reminds me of the stablecoin wars of 2017 that have been ongoing to this day. But now there's like the on-chain T-bills race, the race to be the liquid T-bill. So this kind of feels like an evolution of stablecoins, right? We have Tether, the Wild West unregulated stablecoin. Then you have like the teacher's pet stablecoin, which is USDC. And now we have this next evolution in the war of stablecoins, which is on-chain T-bills, which is where we are in crypto history today. Is that right? Exactly. And I would say in terms of counterparty risk that you're taking with any T-bill issuer, you don't have the Lindy that USDC has. So you're taking a bet on how the specific issuer is set up, their legal structure and so on. But essentially the layers that you have in the middle are the same. You have the Fed, you have DTCC, you have your custodian, you have your broker, your bank that you have to go through, your on-ramp and off-ramp and your issuer. And that's kind of the cleanest chain that you can do. Anything less than that, you cannot move money in and out. So and that's the same for USDC, USDC and any other T-bill issuer. The conversation around this staked ether space in DeFi, where like Lido and kind of everyone I think has accepted that all vanilla ether in as collateral in DeFi, all vanilla ether in Maker, vanilla ether in Abe, any collateral that accepts ether will eventually become staked ether. And this is more or less playing out like slowly, but surely everything all collateral in DeFi is being replaced by staked ether in DeFi, because why wouldn't you trade your non-yield bearing ether for yield bearing ether? Is this the same conversation with on-chain T-bills like, well, why would you hold vanilla stables crypto dollars in DeFi when you could just hold on-chain T-bills in DeFi? Let's just cut to the chase here and get to the logical conclusion of this. This is the same fight that's going on. Exactly. So for degens or crypto natives, we explain tokenized treasuries as like staked ether for dollars. So you have the Bitcoin chain is the US Treasury, right? That's the source of yield and where the ultimate asset sits. Then you have a wrapper on top of that, that makes it liquid. And that wrapper is a near C20 that is yield bearing, in our case, rebasing. Some other will do price appreciating like rocket pool and staked teeth, right? You have those two flavors and that is a near C20 that you can move anywhere. So it's very much the same system. How big is this fight? You said there's like over 10 companies trying to produce the same outcome. How much value is there to be gathered? Like how big is this pie? What's the value of this pie? So if we dream big, there's 20 trillion US dollars, right? So the market is massive. Just like the stablecoin market cap is 120 something billion. It was 200 billion. And a lot of that has died because there's a huge opportunity cost by being on chain. You're taking more risk because you're taking Ethereum risk, which is not negligible. You're taking your C20 risk from your issuer, whatever your custody risk. And you're getting paid zero, whereas you could go to a treasury and get 5%. Why would you do that? So we saw this decline from 200 billion to 125. I think by adding yield again, now you have a very compelling argument to tell my mom, hey, take those dollars that you have under your mattress, turn them into a yield bearing stablecoin and you're earning 5% of your money, whereas you were earning zero. You can go to a small and medium business and say, you know, this high yield check, you have dollars, right? Or you're interested in paying dollars. When you're holding those dollars, instead of holding them at your local bank, which by the way, it's not FDIC insured because it's offshore, hold them in USDM. You're taking Bermuda structural risk or Swiss structural risk or Singapore structural risk, right? All major jurisdictions instead of Argentinian structural risk. And you're earning the 5%. So it becomes a way more compelling argument to bring new money on chain. I'm going to throw a number here. I think we're going to get to a trillion in stablecoins in the next two years. Like there's so much money. In the next how long, Marc? I'm going to say three years for one trillion. A trillion in stablecoins. And that is when you say stablecoins, you mean the tokenized T-bills that we're talking about slash stablecoins, like both that. So anything that follows the value of one US dollar, right? Like tokenized US Treasuries, that is USDC, USDT. That could be us. It could be an ETF, T-billed ETF. Anything that follows the core US government debt. I can totally see the market demand for something like this. Like I want it and there's nothing available like it in TradFi. And yet I'm still kind of wondering if we're missing something here, like an alignment perspective. What you said earlier was, yeah, why wouldn't the US government want to export its dollars? Of course it would want to do that and export its treasuries more specifically, export its debt more specifically. But I'm wondering if we're missing an actually important stakeholder, I put important in air quotes, called the banks. And you know, this is bankless, so we are no friend of the banks. But it seems like they could be cut out of the mix here in some way, Martin. And let me just ask you how this works, right? So I go to my bank account and yes, full confession, bankless listeners. I have a bank account, all right, because I need to pay taxes. Wells Fargo. You know it. It's literally Wells Fargo. And my bank account pays me a whopping 0.15% in my savings account. Actually, maybe that's the checking account rate, OK? There's some arbitrage there, because that's a lot lower than what I see as the risk-free rate, OK? So that tells me somebody's making some money, and I think it's the bank. I think Wells Fargo is making that money on the account. And so there's this kind of arbitrage here. And of course, if I was more motivated, I could take that money out of Wells Fargo, and I could go find a place to park it in good old TradFi and get those sweet T-bills. I'd rather actually just move it into crypto and buy the tokenized T-bills that you have. That would be great. But it strikes me that if I did that, there would be this sucking sound from the US banking system, the kind of sucking sound that may have been the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank, right? Only maybe not kind of quickly, but just slow sucking train crash where liquidity leaves the banking system. And I'm just thinking, Martin, the banks might have something to say about that. And the banks have some influence in DC. Not just the banks. Yeah, not just the banks, right? So is this a piece we haven't covered yet? Tell me how this conspiracy theory fits in here. So if you talk to people at Congress and you bring lots of people to the show, they will tell you there's, out of 20 trillion, there's 5 trillion that are sitting in money markets, right? So one in four dollars are making that decision that you just said, right? A money market is effectively what we just said, only it's in TradFi, is that right? For DeFi enthusiasts, that's Compound or Aave, but in their TradFi forms.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"A miner in a McDonald's? That's how you got your first Bitcoin? Correct. That is cool. How did you find this person? There were groups. I don't remember exactly what app it was because this was early on. This was before Mt. Cox, right? So we would pull all of my friends' money and someone would go and we would rotate who it was. It was like a LocalBitcoins type thing. Very cool. All right. Continue. Hope you enjoyed the meal at McDonald's. Yeah, it was like two blocks. So it was enough to do everything you needed to do. You had time to count the money. And then it was super cheap. We would distribute the Bitcoin afterwards. Just to give you a sense, that was like our internship salary, like 150 bucks each, right? Like it was like miner purchases. So that got me interested in Bitcoin. Initially, I thought Bitcoin was an emerging market thing, right? Like Argentina makes sense. In China, it makes sense. In Turkey, it might make sense. I studied engineering. I got into traditional banking work. I did a lot of work with failed banks, launching new products for banks. I did a high yield checking account with banks, and that is relevant to this story. And when Stablecoins came in, I was like, okay, this is exciting. Now you have a product that meant like my mom uses, like she actually uses Stablecoin today. And in Argentina, if you go now, like people will purchase a Stablecoin when they get their salary, they use our Stablecoin, and then they will swap it out two pesos to pay for their last week or two weeks of expenses. And that's, they will hedge against inflation doing stuff like that, right? So applications of this in Argentina are massive. Basically, back to the high yield checking account side, I did that prior, like 20, the prior cycle after Goldman Sachs did Marcus. And when Luna exploded and appetite for leverage and therefore interest in DeFi went to zero, I was like, how is it possible that the risk-free rate is higher than what we're getting in DeFi? Someone has to have built a product that bridges these two things and that allows everyone in the world to access dollars and now with a native yield of the dollar. Really quick, when you say risk-free rate, can you just define that for people? Yeah. So if you lend money to the US government, the US government can print money and they do that every day. So therefore, it is assumed that the US government is not going to default. If default were to happen, usually they will print more money. So you're going to see inflation rather than actual default. So that means if you lend money to the government, you're guaranteed to get that money back. And then that time value of money is a risk-free rate. By the full faith, power, and credit of the money printer. Exactly. Is because there's a money printer, there's no risk. We'll just print the answer. This is basically the Fed rate that we talk about so often. The whole economy is like, what, 5-point something percent right now? 5.2 or 5.3 percent. It varies a little bit every day. Usually you take the secured over net funding rate. So a bank will leave a treasury bill, they will take cash in exchange, and then they will do a repurchase agreement on the other side the next day. So that's usually what's considered the risk-free rate. You still have risk-free rates in other currencies. So for ETH, that is the liquid staking yield. That would be the risk-free rate for ETH because you know you're not going to get defaulted on that ETH. In Argentina, you also have the risk-free rate in Argentina in pesos. That's 100 percent. You know the government is going to pay you, but they're going to pay you in pesos. So each currency has their own risk-free rate. I would say most assets have their own risk-free rate. Bitcoin doesn't. Bitcoin doesn't have any native source of yield. But most of these assets do have some kind of risk rate, and it's an independent process. So I'm sorry I interrupted you, Martin. You're talking about the risk-free rate. You saw that creeping up, and you're talking about the Fed risk-free rate. You saw that creeping up, and then what happened? So it was about 1.5 percent. I was presenting to a bank. They wanted to learn about crypto. And I was like, if I were a bank, what would I do? And I was like, this is an amazing deposit strategy. And I calculated the revenue of a couple other stablecoin providers, and the number was like massive. And I presented to them, and they were like, yes, but it's very, very hard for us to do. There is no framework for us to issue this, and so on. And I started… Sorry, sorry. Is it borrowing stablecoins in DeFi? Because you said they were at a lower yield than the risk-free rate. So what you're saying, like, it's hard for us to do it. It is borrowing stablecoins in DeFi at like the very low post-TERRA, post-FTX rates of 0.3 percent, I think, if I remember correctly, while you're saying the risk-free rate was 1.5 percent. So you're saying like, hey, there's this free arbitrage. People are leaving money on the table, and banks were saying to you, sure, we see that free arbitrage, but it's hard, so we won't. That's what you're saying, correct? Yeah, so the arbitrage that I was posting to them is go acquire deposits in this market. So if you go and acquire deposits in trust fund markets, you open a branch, and people start depositing, and you give them an IOU. In stablecoins, that IOU is a stablecoin. So you can issue a bank's stablecoin, imagine a Wells Fargo stablecoin, and you could start acquiring assets basically at a very, very low rate, and you wouldn't have to pay much. And then you can lend that on the other side to the U.S. Government, and there's an infinite amount that you can lend to the U.S. Government in the order of trillions. And so take us further in this story. So you see DeFi yields at zero while the risk-free rate is 1.5 percent. What do you do about that? So I started looking like someone has to have built something that solves this problem, and no one had. The big challenge here is how do you bridge these two worlds, giving clarity on the real world asset side? So someone has to hold a treasury, a treasury bill, and that person was buying those treasury bills. At small scale, you can buy, but if you're starting to buy anything at meaningful scale, you have to show where the money came from. And that where the money came from, the compliance AMLKYC component was hard to do. So we said, OK, if we want to offer this, you have to be regulated to do this at scale. If you are not regulated, you're never going to have a framework to bring this pipe and have it be wide enough to bring money and show where the money is coming from and still have sustainable banking, brokerage, custody relationships in the traffic world. And that is the biggest challenge that everyone in this industry faces is how do you answer that regulatory or legal structure in question? It sounds like what you're trying to build is the largest pipe possible between the United States government risk-free rate and DeFi. And right now you're saying that this pipe is actually constrained by our current stablecoin paradigm, the current meta of stablecoins, because you go through it vanilla dollars first, when really you can just go more, let's get right to the punchline of this whole thing, let's take the yield of the risk-free rate and get it into DeFi. What you're buying today when you buy a stablecoin on the back end, it's cash and cash equivalents. That's an accounting term to say treasuries, repos and some cash in banks. So if you look at the disclosures of all major stablecoin holders, most of it is treasuries already. So we are already doing this. The thing that is not flowing through is the yield component. So you're getting a 0% yield on your stablecoins today. So Martin, we actually don't usually ask people about their background and their story about how they came to build what they are building in crypto. But in this particular moment, especially we just did the weekly roll up last week. It went out yesterday and we talked about how increasing inflation in Turkey has led to 12% of the Turkish population adopting crypto in the last year and a half. And you come from Argentina. Argentina is very familiar with inflation. We've had plenty of Argentines previously on the show, Mariano Conti, just talk about the role that inflation played in their lives. And just the happenstance of Argentina also being a very internet-connected country. You mix inflation and internet connectivity and all of a sudden you have an entire country that is pushing forward crypto adoption. And this is a story I see playing out with you, right? Born in the world of inflation, tech enabled. Now you live in the United States and want to build in the world of crypto because that is your genesis, that is your upbringing. And so I wanted to take this moment to tell the story of showing how inflation leads to people, builders, building stuff in crypto to help progress forward this new financial revolution. And so I just wanted to do the thing we don't usually do, which is have people explain their background, because that is how you've gotten to be where you are today. Any comments or reflections on that? I would add to that capital controls, right? Like that's the other big thing that has made Argentina so strong in crypto. I couldn't buy a dollar even if I wanted to, right? So the experience of buying a crypto asset, like my mom, she's 60 years old. She buys stable coins because she cannot access them through the traditional financial system. Her alternative is to have someone bring her, like, we call it the blue market. It's called the black market in practice. Someone comes on a scooter, brings pesos or brings dollars, and you exchange everything in a very informal way. That's the alternative today. I want to put this through the lens of something you were saying when we were going through your background is you said that at first you discovered Bitcoin and kind of that McDonald's transaction. And then later you discovered stable coins and you said you were very excited about stable coins. And I think a lot of our listeners today and people in crypto, maybe in the West, they look at stable coins and they don't get very excited. You know what I mean? Like, they're more excited about the speculation. They're more excited about the gambling. But you see in stable coins, you know, probably as a result of kind of growing up in Argentina in a high inflation environment, and you see a killer app and a killer use case. You wrote this fantastic article I really liked back in December of last year called stable coins are crypto's hidden money printers. And you talk about how great USDC is the stable coin, how that is the definition of product market fit. And you brought the receipts into this post where you kind of so the charts and, you know, hey, this is crypto's killer app. It's called stable coins. I want to get to more of that story. But before we do, let's talk about this this T bill thing. And I have kind of a simple maybe crypto native type question for you that we've sort of gotten to the edges around, but it's like more directly. I tweeted this out. USDC and tokenized dollars are fine, but with rates over 5%, I want tokenized treasuries. Where's our USD T? I'm not talking about Tether here. I'm talking about the T as in T for T bills. OK, so the simple idea, and it feels like we should be able to do this. I think you were kind of like, you know, hinting about this is rather than have an ERC 20 fungible, you know, stable coin that is just one to one backed by a dollar. Why not have an ERC 20, a tokenized form of a T bill, call it USD T? I guess we tried that one. USD treasury, right? And like make that the same thing, except it gets me that 5% yield or wherever the Fed rates goes next. Maybe it's down to 4%. Maybe it's up to 6%. Maybe it's up to 8%. Who knows? Wherever it ends up, I still get that yield. To me, that would be like the perfect instrument and completely ripe for crypto. So let me ask the really dumb, simple question is like, why don't we have that already? It's not just the three of us making this connection. I'm sure the people at Coinbase and Circle. We're not geniuses here. This is a pretty simple instrument. Why don't we have it yet? The answer is there's no regulation where you can plug this in and it's ready to go. We're not the only company doing this. There's at least 10 that I know of. And most of them have gone through the path of let's literally tokenize the treasury bill. The treasury bill is a security. And then the claim that you have is a share, like it's the T-bill or a share of a fund or something like that. The issue with that path is you run through securities laws and it kills the composability, right? I cannot transfer it to you unless you also whitelist unless you are also an accredited investor. How do you whitelist Uniswap or a curve pool? So you start getting into those issues down the securities path. Just to rearticulate why that's such a big issue. So you're saying like the token, the ERC-20 token on Ethereum would come with a whitelist. And so by default, every other address on Ethereum is not allowed to touch that contract address until their specific Ethereum address is approved on the whitelist, which is like what's the effing point at that point, right? Like one by one by one automatic. Yeah, there is no composability there. There's no permissionlessness there. There's plenty of risk there. Yeah, that's a huge barrier. I just want to back up. So is what you're saying that the dollar, right? A dollar's an account and so therefore USDC, that is not a security, despite what Gary Gensler might want it to be, right? That's not a security as of now. It's just like a currency. It's something different. But a treasury, are treasuries securities then in all of their forms and flavors? Like I'm talking in the TradFi market. They're all securities. And so they come attached with securities laws. What are those securities laws? Is that, I mean, I'm more familiar with kind of securities laws as they pertain to like stocks, but what is there specifically for like treasuries? So treasuries are considered debts, right? They're a US government debt. And by that, they are a security. The thing that you're going to is USDC is a wrapper on those securities today. So USDC is a wrapper on a bunch of T-bills. They have a fund in BlackRock. I forgot the ticker, but you can go and check and it has a bunch of securities and repos and so on. So you're already wrapping that and creating a non-security payment token. So there is a gap that the US still needs to address for this law, right? This is a gap that Bermuda, where we've gone, Switzerland, Singapore is soon to address, the UK, every other jurisdiction is starting to address this gap. So this question that you have is very US centric in that that model doesn't work. There are other models, which is one that we went down with. We'll get to that in a second. Let's finish this. So what you're saying is right now, USDC is sort of effectively a middleman, kind of a go-between. So all the dollars that back USDC, it's not actually dollars. Like we use that in short form. We say there's one dollar here, there's one dollar in the bank. These are actually like treasuries. And that is why you can go to Coinbase and you can press a button or I don't even know if you have to press a button anymore, but there's some sort of setting inside of Coinbase where you park your USDC there and you get, I think it's like 4.75% yield. The reason they're able to give you that yield when the USDC is sitting in Coinbase is because there's actually treasuries behind this. And so I think, am I right here? Where does the yield come from, Martin? Yeah. So Coinbase and Circle are different entities. Where the yield for Coinbase specifically comes from, I don't think it's disclosed. They own a portion of Circle. They might have a commercial agreement.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"Arbitrum is accelerating the Web3 landscape with a suite of secure Ethereum scaling solutions. Hundreds of projects have already deployed on Arbitrum 1 with flourishing DeFi and NFT ecosystems. Arbitrum Nova is quickly becoming a Web3 gaming hub and social dapps like Reddit are also calling Arbitrum home. And now, Arbitrum Orbit allows you to use Arbitrum's secure scaling technology to build your own layer 3, giving you access to interoperable, customizable permissions with dedicated throughput. Whether you are a developer, enterprise, or user, Arbitrum Orbit lets you take your project to new heights. All of these technologies leverage the security and decentralization of Ethereum and provide a builder experience that's intuitive, familiar, and fully EVM compatible, faster transaction speeds, and significantly lower gas fees. So visit arbitrum.io where you can join the community, dive into the developer docs, bridge your assets, and start building your first app with Arbitrum. Experience Web3 development the way it was always meant to be. Secure, fast, cheap, and friction free. Bankless Nation, I would love to introduce you to Martin Karika, the founder of Mountain Protocol, a native yield-bearing stablecoin project. And Martin himself is alleged to be extremely knowledgeable about stables, especially from a regulatory perspective. At least that's how he was introduced to us by our friend Nick Carter, who is also extremely knowledgeable about stablecoins. Lately, in the crypto world, the conversation around real-world assets and on-chain T-bills has been growing in interest. So we're hoping Martin here can help guide us in our understanding about what is next in this new evolution of stablecoins from on-chain dollars to on-chain T-bills. Martin, welcome to Bankless. Thank you, guys. Thank you for having me. Well, Martin, this is your first time on Bankless. Tell us a little bit about yourself, your background, and why this story of stablecoins is so important to you. Awesome. So I'm originally from Argentina, lived through high inflation for a long time, started in crypto, got my first salary, like a stratified company, oil pipe company, purchased Bitcoin, going to a miner in a McDonald's and exchanging cash for Bitcoin and having to wait for the two blocks. So we had lunch together.
Bankless
"treasury" Discussed on Bankless
"If you look at like last seven days Ethereum versus run rate for Circle, it's the same amount of money. Huh, is the equivalent to Circle? Exactly, exactly. Holy shit, Circle is printing money. Every time you pay gas, like that amount of gas, that's the same amount of money that Circle is making. Tether is three times that. Tether alone is making more money than the whole rest of the crypto ecosystem outside centralized exchanges. Oh, that's your margin. Your margin is my opportunity, is that what you're saying, Martin? Exactly. Welcome to Bankless, where we explore the frontier of internet money and internet finance. This is how to get started, how to get better, and how to front-run the opportunity. This is Ryan John Adams, and I'm here with David Hoffman, and we're here to help you become more bankless. This is certainly a money opportunity to front-run. On-chain T-bills is the topic today. The overnight Fed funds rate is 5.3% right now, and that's some pretty good yield. But how much are you getting in your bank account? Probably not very much of that. How much are you getting from your stablecoin is maybe a better question for crypto natives. And if it's an instrument like USDC in your Ethereum address, the answer is probably nothing. You're not getting any of that yield. But what if we could tokenize treasuries instead of just dollars? What if we could create a USDT, and the T is for treasury. And that tokenized treasury yielded 5% just for holding in your ETH address. That is the promise of tokenized T-bills, and it's gearing up to be a major theme over the next 12 months. I think another force for democratization worldwide. We have Martin Karika here. He's the founder of a tokenized T-bill company, and he's here to get us up to speed. A few takeaways for you on the episode today. Number one, why don't we already have tokenized treasuries? Why doesn't that product already exist? Number two, we talk about why on-chain treasuries are a force for democratization worldwide, especially in emerging countries. Number three, we talk about why the US government actually wants this, even though they may not admit it. Number four, in this weird paradox, we talk about why US citizens will probably have a hard time getting tokenized T-bills as well. David, you're laughing right now because, man, it is hard being a US citizen in crypto these days, isn't it? Yeah, really. The irony of US citizens being the people that are going to be the hardest population to be able to access the yield from their own government's money printing. And in fact, no, we're going to just export it straight to the foreign countries of the world. Bankless listeners, you'll just have to listen to the episode to understand, understand the punchline there. But Martin, not the guests on the show, does a really good job laying it out for us. I think Ryan presented this as the promise of tokenized T-bills, tokenized treasuries, on-chain T-bills, whatever you want to call these things. Also, I'll add that there's an economic weight here. It's kind of destiny. You know, like maybe we don't get there for some reason that I can't understand, but incentives will produce this outcome. Eventually, stablecoins will be replaced by tokenized treasuries. It's kind of the same if you accept that eventually all vanilla ETH will be replaced by some liquid staking token alternative. Eventually, like why would you just hold vanilla ETH and Aave when you can do our ETH and Aave instead? If you accept that, then it's kind of the same thing. Eventually, all vanilla stablecoins will just be replaced by tokenized treasuries and you will get the yield natively. There's a gravitational pull, right? It's like water goes downhill and liquidity finds a way and a yield will find its way in a tokenized form on-chain. So there's been just growing demand and interest about this topic of on-chain treasuries and real-world assets. So Bankless listeners, you can consider this the first of a few steps into the world of real-world assets on-chain that we want to explore here on Bankless, starting with tokenized treasuries. Yeah. I'm looking forward to discussing this with you. A lot of interesting implications here. And David and I are going to discuss that in the debrief. Of course, if you're a Bankless citizen, you already have access to that on the Bankless Premium feed. So go check that out right now. Ad-free. Bankless Premium feed. Ad-free. It's a beautiful thing. But before we get into this episode, first we disclose and the disclosures are there's nothing really to disclose here. Of course, we hold crypto assets. Didn't even talk about ETH. No, we didn't. Crypto assets that we do hold stand to benefit from tokenized T-bill transactions. But of course, you know that. And we are long-term investors. We're not journalists. We don't do paid content. There's always a link to all Bankless disclosures in the show notes. You can access that at bankless.com slash disclosures. All right, we're going to get right to the conversation with Martin on tokenized T-bills. But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible, including our number one recommended crypto exchange for 2023, Kraken. Go create an account. Kraken Pro has easily become the best crypto trading platform in the industry. The place I use to check the charts and the crypto prices, even when I'm not looking to place a trade. On Kraken Pro, you'll have access to advanced charting tools, real-time market data, and fast trade execution, all inside their spiffy new modular interface. Kraken's new customizable modular layout lets you tailor your trading experience to suit your needs. Pick and choose your favorite modules and place them anywhere you want in your screen. With Kraken Pro, you have that power. Whether you are a seasoned pro or just starting out, join thousands of traders who trust Kraken Pro for their crypto trading needs. Visit pro.kraken.com to get started today. Metamask Portfolio is your one-stop shop to manage your crypto assets and to tap into DeFi all in one place. And the most important part of that experience? Buying crypto, obviously. Metamask Portfolio's buy feature enables you to purchase crypto easily without going through centralized exchanges. Designed with you in mind, you can fund your wallet directly in just a few clicks with convenience and simplicity. What happens when you press the buy button? Rather than being limited to a single payment provider, Metamask brings together a bunch of vetted trustworthy providers to present you with customized quotes for your crypto purchase. Once you've funded your wallet, you'll be able to plug into DeFi with all the money like swapping, bridging, and staking. But first things first, you need skin in the game. Head over to metamask.io slash portfolio to buy crypto the easy way.
The Breakdown
"treasury" Discussed on The Breakdown
"Meaning, in other words, that if these regulations are enforced in their current form, they would apply equally to both centralized and decentralized exchanges. The Treasury claimed this was an attempt to ensure the rules were equally applied to all trading venues. They stated in the published notes that This decision was made because the reasons for requiring information reporting on dispositions of digital assets do not depend on the manner by which a business operating a platform affects customer transactions. Miller Whitehouse Levine, chief executive officer of the DeFi Education Fund, said in a statement While acknowledging that self-hosted wallet users effectuate their own transfers, the proposal still somehow attempts to find third parties responsible for effectuating transfers on behalf of a wallet user. Now, another big theme of comments from the crypto lobby over the past few years has been that lawmakers need additional education on how crypto, and particularly DeFi, work to be able to enact functional policy. Often when a clumsy worded piece of legislation or guidance was issued, the industry gave the benefit of the doubt and assumed that sensible policymakers wouldn't want to snuff out a potentially lucrative industry while it was still in its infancy. Indeed, many thought that the first draft of these rules in the original infrastructure bill was exactly that, just a mistake. Sad for them to discover that it was not. And to the extent that there was any benefit of the doubt left, for some, that clearly stops now. Gabriel Shapiro, the general counsel at Delphi Digital, tweeted The worst thing you could think is that the new treasury broker rules are based on tech ignorance. All the little details show otherwise, including hypotheticals that exactly match how DeFi web apps work, how metamask swaps work, etc. They know how it works and don't care. They even went out of their way to say that a website that communicates with the user's wallet and receives revenue from ads on the site can be a broker with tax reporting obligations. Sweeping in Etherscan. So what is to be done? Well, some discussed ways to deal with these rules if they were to be implemented. Many suggested that services could be pushed to the protocol layer or otherwise decentralized away from any recognizable developer group to ensure there was no target for compliance. Consensus lawyer Bill Hughes, for example, wrote Offer your Exchange and or DEX interface services for free and you aren't a broker because it isn't part of a trade or business. Still the more common reaction was that DeFi protocols would simply need to geoblock U.S. customers and accept that DeFi just wasn't compatible with the current policy agenda in the land of the free. Evgeny Gayoff, the CEO of Wintermute, said If this passes, no other way but to block U.S. people out of your DeFi protocol. Biggest retail market locked out from the rest of the world. CCP make notes. Senior Dago said, idea. The entire crypto space should geoblock the U.S. to their UIs, but link to that Coinbase website to help you find your congressperson to talk about bad crypto policy choices with. Now, obviously, another big theme of this is the political ramifications. Alliance DAO's Jacob Franek writes, The Dems' strategy for banning crypto is clear. They won't attempt an outright ban. That draws too much attention. Instead, they'll slowly suffocate it through enforcements, SEC and Treasury, and a DDoS-style flood of bills that are intended to confuse and pick apart crypto at the margins. Ryan Selkis, the CEO at Masari, said There's no future for crypto in the U.S. if Biden is re-elected. I'm sorry. Move abroad, draft Newsom and hope for the best. Or vote GOP, where at least we know the top three candidates are less terrible on this issue. Crypto has always been political. Andrew at Apiabicus writes, The lengthy, coordinated, and multifaceted approach to attacking crypto over the past 18 months is all about one word – control. It should be obvious by now that the U.S. government is going to allow Bitcoin and ETH to exist, but they want to control it and your use of it. Fidelity, BlackRock, Coinbase, CME, and others are all means of control. Operation Chokepoint 2.0 was a successful campaign directly and indirectly. Crypto-friendly banks were assassinated and held up as examples for other banks as a this-could-happen-to-you example. Decentralization here in the U.S. is very near to being outlawed based on today's developments. SEC, DOJ, IRS, Treasury, OCC – if you aren't convinced by now of this reality, the memo from Treasury and the IRS should end all doubt. So far, the proposal is just for discussion purposes, with the Treasury to solicit public input and feedback on the proposed regulations. Public comment on the rule will be open until October 30th, after which a public hearing will be held on November 7th. What's more, the enactment period for the rule is unusually long. The first required reporting date is not until 2026 to cover the previous year's transactions. Summing up the mood closing out Friday, Jake Travinsky wrote, There are good weeks and bad weeks in crypto policy. This week, DOJ and Treasury reminded us of a sad but unsurprising truth. Our effort to manifest the right to privacy through code will be met with fierce resistance. It was a bad week, but that's okay. In the end, we win. So that's the lay of the land. Just a couple reflections before we close out here. First of all, DeFi was always going to be an incredibly challenging regulatory issue in the United States. We can hem and haw and scream all we want about the stupidity of the KYC regime, the inefficacy of the Bank Secrecy Act, etc. etc. But at the end of the day, those things absolutely dominate and rule thinking in Washington, basically among both parties. There isn't really any meaningful or serious challenge to that regime. So then anything that seems or has a whiff of challenging that regime is very likely to be politically challenging. That was always going to be the case. The problem, of course, is that we're not dealing with an environment in which thoughtful good faith conversations, negotiations, discussions are being or even really can be held. Instead, what we're dealing with is a political environment in which crypto is on the outs due to a variety of self-imposed wounds from last year and before, due to the extreme extreme counter reaction of Dems against the industry after their favorite person within it fell from grace, and due to the fact that there were always people within each of these agencies and institutions who just had it out for this industry from the get go, even holding aside all of those things that transpired. From what I heard back in 2021, when the infrastructure bill was first being negotiated, Treasury was an absolute bastion of those people. Now, of course, Treasury got quiet over the subsequent couple of years and other agencies and regulators became chief villains. I'm looking at you, Gary Gensler, but that doesn't mean that those people who hated crypto from the get go ever really went away. I think one of the things that we've learned this year with Operation Chokepoint 2.0 is that you don't need a presidential mandate for unelected officials to run roughshod over an industry. All you need is for some portion of people in leadership positions in these various agencies to not be contested by people who are either neutral or on the other side of the issue to get really bad aggressive policy. I believe more than anything, that's where we've been since the collapse of FTX. Sure, some people went from neutral to against, but I think the bigger thing is that the people who were neutral and pro just didn't want to stick their neck out. And frankly, it's kind of understandable why. Now of course, as we've documented extensively on this show, that feels to be changing in general. But the Treasury won this battle two years ago. It just hadn't put it into practice subsequent to that. For those feeling glum or gloomy, there is still a ton of politicking to be done here, and this particular issue is far from solved. So keep your heads up, keep letting that anger fuel you, and we will live to fight another day. Until tomorrow, be safe and take care of each other.
The Breakdown
"treasury" Discussed on The Breakdown
"Welcome back to The Breakdown with me and LW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Monday, August 28th, and today we are talking about the new broker definitions from the US Treasury and all of the scuttlebutt around them. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Hello friends, hope you had a great late summer weekend. Today we are getting into news that broke just before the beginning of the weekend but has continued to reverberate throughout. The US Treasury has finally released their definition of a broker as part of broader crypto tax reporting rules. The nearly 300-page rule proposal was published on Friday to codify language in the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The rule would require centralized crypto exchanges, payment processors, and other entities that regularly redeem crypto issued by them to report customer transactions to the IRS in a similar way to stockbrokers. Now the issue is that the definition of broker is so broad that it captures some hosted wallet services, some DeFi applications, and potentially much more. In addition to the reporting requirements, the rulemaking introduces a new dedicated tax form, the 1099-DA, which settles confusion around which form crypto brokers should file. Miners and validators are expressly excluded from the reporting requirements, but the rules seek to capture essentially all other web-based services that provide access to trading platforms within their own user interface. Now of course, this set of rules was controversial from the start. In late 2021, as the infrastructure bill was being negotiated, there was an industry outcry that the rulemaking instructions as drafted would be unworkable. These concerns were shared by many lawmakers, including a small group of pro-crypto-democrats. Still the loudest complaint came from Republican Patrick McHenry, who said the current language is completely unacceptable, it needs to be fixed. The major concern in 2021 was that the loose language would be used to put reporting requirements on miners, validators, and self-hosted wallet providers, who plainly did not have the personal information and transaction data required to comply. As the bill moved towards a vote, the Treasury attempted to ease nerves. One source told Bloomberg that the Treasury Department wasn't looking to go after businesses that don't have transaction data, however they noted that much of the lobbying was aimed at limiting the Treasury Department's authority to collect legitimate tax information. This was viewed as an indication that the rules were not intended to place an unworkable reporting burden on miners and validators. The Treasury has stuck to their word on this end and ensured that the rules do not apply to those groups within the crypto ecosystem. Alexis Goldstein, Financial Policy Director at the Open Markets Institute, and frequent anti-crypto witness at Congressional Testimonies, argued that DeFi protocols should not be given a carve-out from the new rules. She said at the time, Ultimately, an eleventh-hour effort to amend the language in the bill was snuffed out by an unrelated procedural quirk which forced an unamended vote. Crypto lobbyists recognized that the rules would need to be objected to once published. Since then, there have been multiple legislative efforts to repeal the rules before they were issued but none have progressed. The rulemaking is being justified as a measure to close the tax gap. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that these provisions would raise up to $28 billion in additional tax payments over the next decade. The Biden Administration and the IRS under them view unpaid taxes on digital asset trading as a major contributor to the tax gap which is the difference between taxes owed and taxes collected. Some estimates put this overall tax gap issue in the ballpark of $500 billion per year. The Treasury directly addressed this issue as the reasoning behind the rulemaking and stated that it was an effort to crack down on tax cheats while helping law-abiding taxpayers know how much they owe on the sale or exchange of digital assets. This isn't really the main point but obviously the crypto industry as a source of tax revenue looks very different to the way it looked in mid-2021 when the infrastructure bill was passed. And what's more, even if somehow this rulemaking brought in the entire $28 billion in additional revenue over the next 10 years, which most think is extremely overzealous, it would still barely make a dent in the $1 trillion price tag for the Infrastructure Act. Maybe because of that, the Treasury gave the impression that funding the Infrastructure Act was a secondary consideration. Now, speaking of Patrick McHenry, he said that he was Other than that, however, he was disappointed in how broad the rulemaking was. He stated that However, it fails on numerous other counts. Any additional rulemaking related to the other sections from the law must adhere to congressional intent. McHenry also directly called out the White House for yet another piece of bad faith policy, adding that Now on the flip side, Elizabeth Warren, leader of course of the anti-crypto army, didn't think the Treasury went far enough. She said in a statement Kristin Smith, the CEO of the Blockchain Association, noted that by overreaching, the Treasury has presented both an unworkable set of rules and failed to execute on policy which could lower the burden of calculating taxes for everyday crypto users. If done correctly, she said, these rules could help provide everyday crypto users with the necessary information to accurately comply with tax laws. However, it's important to remember that the crypto ecosystem is very different from that of traditional assets, so the rules must be tailored accordingly and not capture ecosystem participants that don't have a pathway to compliance. Another concern was the cost of implementation and the sheer difficulty of compliance, even for well-established centralized exchanges. Coinbase Vice President of Tax, Lawrence Latkin, said in a statement The practicality of the IRS's requirement to report, let alone enforce this incredible minutiae of taxpayer data, is questionable at best. Miles Fuller, head of government solutions at crypto tax software company Taxbit, was a little more credulous about the feasibility compliance for large firms, stating that Quote, There's obviously an immediate investment cost to brokers that will have to implement this and digest and figure out how to do it, but the longer-term outlook in my view is good for the industry because it'll help bring more mainstream adoption. Still, by far the most common discussion point on Twitter was that these rules were overly broad and capture far too much of DeFi infrastructure in their definition of a broker. Crypto commentator Spreak writes, So to recap the new proposed tax rules, Metamask is a broker and has to KYC and report all users unless it removes swaps. Uniswap is a broker and is required to update its UI to a new KYC version. Anything with a multisig is a broker and required to add KYC. For completeness, the proposed definition of a broker includes A person who, in the ordinary course of a trade or business, operate a non-custodial trading platform or website that stands ready to affect sales of digital assets for others by allowing persons to exchange digital assets directly with other persons for cash stored value cards or different digital assets, including by providing access to automatically executing contracts, protocols or other software that automatically affects such sales.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"treasury" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Limit, but they came so close that there was a real set of spasms and financial markets. Of course, investors run away first from the maturities that are about to come due. But then it sends spasms throughout the rest of the financial markets we saw stocks across the globe drop. And if they do indeed breach the debt limit and people stop getting their pay, social security checks stopped going out, investors stop getting their interest payments. That would be an even much more serious situation. Yeah. Now, you mentioned treasury secretary Yellen, she's already said. She said, I believe late last week that a special accounting maneuvers will begin this week. How long can she keep her finger in the dam and hold things together? That's right. Well, that's a very good question. They refer to these as extraordinary measures, as you say, essentially accounting methods. Now, they should last for several months. The treasury is about to enter tax season where at first they see a lot of outflows, but then they'll get a lot of tax receipts when the April 15th deadline comes. And that should hold them over in these extraordinary measures. The secretary said in her letter, this past week to Congress, that they should be able to hold out at least until early June and after that, it becomes much more uncertain. Economists are expecting somewhere in July or August. So there is time, but of course that will dwindle away quite quickly. All right, well, let the games begin, I said, I don't mean to be glib, but it's going to be something to watch this week, Chris. And I know you'll be watching and we'll be reading your stories up in the Bloomberg terminal, probably hearing from you too as well. Thank you so much. You're terrific. That is a Bloomberg US Treasury and economic policy report at Chris condon. In San Francisco, I met Baxter and this is Bloomberg. Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York. Bloomberg 11 three O to Washington, D.C., Bloomberg 99 one to Boston, Bloomberg one O 6 one to San Francisco, Bloomberg 9 60 to the country, Syria's XM channel one 19, and around the globe, the Bloomberg business act in Bloomberg radio dot com. This is Bloomberg daybreak, Asia.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"treasury" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is here to help. Find the care guides you need to help, complete with tips and resources at AARP dot org slash caregiving. Brought to you by AARP and the ad console. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg business week podcast, former treasury official Steven skanky, he's now chief economic adviser kill point. We get a preview of Wednesday's fed decision. I think the fed will continue to be pretty hawkish. They're going to raise rates by a half percent, which is what they telegraphed already, but they're very sensitive and share power is particularly sensitive to the idea that the fed is making the dovish pivot. So they wanted to dispel that. They want to use that as forward guidance in rates continuing to rise probably above. They're higher the peak that they had put out in September. And so I don't think that the fed is going to do anything differently than what they've said. And they are going to still continue to be hockey, at least until they see another month of inflation data. You know, Steve, I was thinking about 60 minutes, they did a nice deep dive with Janet Yellen, of course, of the US Treasury, and all of the things that they're dealing with right now. If you were at the treasury right now, would you be telling your treasury secretary? Hey guys, get ready. We've got a recession coming in. It could be a problem. Well, I would surely be telling them to continue to be alert because it's a possibility when you look at the conference board leading indicators index, the inversion of the yield curve, now even more deeply on the ten year two year and the three month, ten year in inversion territory over the last several weeks. So the barkers are out there. But as you pointed out, the news is actually pretty good. Catch more of this and other conversations on today's Bloomberg businessweek podcast. Subscribe on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Plus listen anytime on Bloomberg dot com. But I know about courage, I learned from my adoptive mom. She said sometimes you just gotta hold on, and no we'll get through this. Mom, we are so high up. Hold my hand. No, you holding my hand. Here we go. Learn about adopting a team from foster care. You can't
Bloomberg Radio New York
"treasury" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Treasuries rallied, the dollar goes down, and stocks are mostly lower after less than forecast increasing inflation was seen as giving Ben officials more flexibility. When it comes to pulling back stimulus, the S and P is down 3/10 of a percent now down 14. The Dow is down 6/10 of a percent down 208 and the NASDAQ is down to 10% down 23. The 10 year is currently up. 18 30 seconds with the yield of 1.26%, West Texas Intermediate create crude is off earlier highs up a quarter of a percent. Now at 70 62 a barrel Connection. Gold is up 8/10 of a percent at 18 08 18 ounce The dollar yen 1967 the euro dollar 18 19, the British found a dollar 38 54 House Democrats are considering a two year repeal as one of their potential paths to undoing the $10,000 capital. Federal deduction for state and local taxes, Senator Senior Ways and Means Committee Democrat Bill Pascrell of New Jersey, says the temporary rollback is one of the main considerations before the Democratic caucus. Now that is a Bloomberg business Flash. I'm Greg Jarrett. This is the big take the best of Bloomberg's original reporting from around the globe. Well, we actually make sure we do you as the economy recovers is look at the data kind of broken down of it is becoming more and more expensive. Looking into $15 billion for the entry level. There have been waves of immigration that have faced a lot of resistance. A lot of color behind the scenes in a great untold story. How did Bezos really come out on top? As the cover? Says Jeff wins, he always seems to win. The big Take on Bloomberg Radio. Alright, Matt. When I read today's big take story, which I do every day, I just said as I'm reading it, Boy, This is a HBO Max or Netflix kind of Movie in the making. Just start with the headline Glencore, Trader turns on colleagues.
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
"treasury" Discussed on The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
"They're even afraid to articulate effect. Fact i saw somebody interviewed from the chamber of commerce and ask him about the minimum wage and the person was in favor of it representing small business. Just didn't want fifteen dollars. An hour wanted it. Maybe a lower minimum. I mean they should be advocating for the abolition of the minimum wage. But they don't have the guts to state their position. Because they're afraid of being called heartless or mean and as i said many times on this podcast once you make the mistake of accepting that a minimum wage is good. And you're not willing to be honest and say that it's bad at any price and it should be abolished if you try to argue that seven twenty five is good and it should go up will then. There's no reason why it shouldn't be fifteen destroyed your own argument before you even start to make it. But it's all about the pressure to try to pretend and try to signal to everybody. How caring you are because everybody is afraid to stand up for doing. What's right right to try to argue the economic case forgetting about the moral case of just freedom and allowing you know consenting adults to enter into their own agreements without the government prohibiting it but to argue the economic realities of the destruction of the minimum wage particularly when it comes to the poor and minority communities. Nobody is willing to make that argument because everybody is afraid that no one is going to see that. No one is going to listen to or follow that all they're going to see is a mean person who doesn't care..