35 Burst results for "Tracey Samuelson"
Voting Continues On United Auto Workers' Tentative Deal With GM
"This message comes from NPR sponsor xfinity some things are slow like a snail races other things are fast like Xfinity X. by for N._p._R. News I'm Tracey Samuelson
The Global Economy: US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decade and the WTO downgrades the trade volume
"We begin today with the aforementioned slice of the American economy manufacturer ing the Caveat here is that you can't can't tell the whole story of this economy from just one number of course but a report we got today about. US manufacturing is causing a little bit of Aga it comes to was from the Institute for Supply Management. It provides an index or whether the manufacturing is expanding or contracting from month to month. That's Sharyn o'halloran. She's professor of Political Economy at Columbia. The manufacturing index came out. This morning is pretty straight ahead. If it's above fifty fifty manufacturing is expanding below that it's shrinking what we've seen in this latest report is that the index spell below fifty forty seven point eight to be precise signifies. A worsening of manufacturing tring conditions in the in the United States that is manufacturing industries are facing a downturn. Today's number was in fact. The lowest is the index has been in more than ten years manufacturing is not the largest component of the economy is a significant component when there's a contraction in manufacturing other types of sectors will probably follow because it could be layoffs it could be different types of negative activities that are going to happen as a result of it so what is going on here. You know really indicates to me that what's driving. This is our lack of new export orders. That's Timothy Furey. SM He chairs the committee that puts out the survey in question this is more of I think it's more more of a trade throttling it's it's caused a lot of bottlenecks across the global environment not good for the manufacturing economy yeah not good for the manufacturing fracturing. Konami all spink trade bottlenecks and throttling of the global environment let us turn now to the WTO the World Trade Organization. Shall we twice a year the economists honest the WTO get together and go through their models in their crystal balls and tell the rest of us how much trade they're expecting in the next couple of years and you know where this is going right. Their latest I forecast out today shows a sharp drop in the growth of trade from where they were expecting just six months ago in April. Thinking was we'd see trade volumes grow two point six percent this year now just one point two percent its backdrop so we asked marketplace's. Tracey Samuelson to figure out what has changed in the past six months this forecast is downgrade from what the WTO was expecting in April and that was a downgrade from what it was expecting last September Coleman knee and economist in the research in statistics division at the WTO says we're already seeing slower trade growth show up in the data. What's happened is the trade growth in the first half of the year of Twenty nineteen was much listen we expected so we were forced to revise our forecast down pretty substantially. He says there is a number of reasons why there's slowing economic growth in major economies uh-huh and regions in Asia and Europe a bit in the US and that reduces demand for it for all kinds of goods including imports. It's lying. Economic growth doesn't totally explain the slowing growth in trade volumes. There's something else what could it be since April. The trade dispute has only escalated. Fan Vino is the US chief economist SNP Global. We've had the United States add more tariffs on now three hundred billion of Chinese products and still more tears to take effect in December. Eastward facade is a trade policy professor at Cornell has been a fundamentally evaluation about what the prospects for dissolving the retention. It's become clear that the US China trade tensions are here to stay so precise says businesses are reevaluating their supply chains and putting investment plans on hold which can ultimately mean less trade. I'm tracey Samuelson for
Trump considers dramatic escalation of trade war, stopping Chinese firms from US listings
"We begin today in the realm of what if what if the trade war gets worse what if in addition to tariffs and the currency ward that's been threatened. What if the trump administration puts limits on the actual all movement of Money Bloomberg first reported that the White House has been thinking about D. listening Chinese companies from American stock exchanges and putting limits on how Americans can invest invest over there. We should say at this point that the Treasury Department says there is no plan to block Chinese companies from listing on US exchanges for now but as marketplace's places tracey Samuelson reports to get going this whole idea is a bit of a tone change restricting investments would open a big new front in the trade tapeworm says Dan Rosen with the Rhodium group as big as the A to a trade is between the United States and China the financial interaction. It is a much much larger number about four million dollars a flows in both directions according to Rhodium estimates Lee Miller is CEO of china-based book a data and analytics six firm. You've got over a trillion dollars market cap of Chinese companies. They're on US exchanges. You've got enormous opportunities to invest in in in Chinese financial and capital markets going forward what would essentially do is it would shut off a good portion of the investment universe from US investors esters. Miller says US regulators don't have access to the same financial information about Chinese firms listed on U. S. exchanges as they do American ones so strengthening those requirements me aiming sense. If you're Walmart you are subject to a certain set of standards. If you are Alibaba and you're behind the Chinese firewall here then you're able to you push back against this oversight and it's it's becoming a bigger problem. Rosen with Rhodium group says imposing investment restrictions isn't unusual against adversaries. The series like Iran North Korea Cuba. What's very abnormal here is that we haven't at all as a nation or even as a government decided that that's how we you want to consider the People's Republic of China. He says historically. US policy has tended to treat China as more of an economic opportunity than a threat. I'm tracey Samuelson for marketplace
What happens if the trade war hits the tech industry?
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by indeed. Are you hiring with indeed? You can post job in minutes. Set up screener questions than zero in on your shortlist qualified candidates using an online dashboard. Get started today and indeed dot com slash marketplace. That's indeed dot com slash marketplace. And by the Michigan economic Development Corporation, Evan Lyall of rush enterprises is a big fan of Michigan as he put it the future of mobility, is going to be decided right here in the state, visit planted dot com to find out why. That's P. L. A. N. E T, M dot com. What happens if the trade war hits the tech industry from American public media? This is marketplace tech. I'm Tracey Samuelson in for Molly would. The Trump administration is hearing testimony this week from businesses and industry groups affected by a pending fourth round of tariffs on Chinese imports. If an acted these tariffs would cover an additional three hundred billion dollars worth of products. Meaning nearly everything we buy from China would face a tariff that's left, some tech companies scrambling to try and shift their supply chains away from China. Others are lobbying to try and prevent the tariffs. But all face a similar question. Whether to pass the extra cost of tariffs along to consumers. Let's talk more about this in quality assurance, a segment where we take a deeper look at big tech story. See, we covers tech for the Wall Street Journal from Beijing. We talked about how tariffs will affect various consumer technology with sick. The iphone, for instance, a lot of phone parts come from China. There were some reports from J P, Morgan that said that if these terrorists take place than it would could raise the cost of an iphone of an iphone by v. Fifteen twenty percent and unclear whether apple had pass those costs and consumers but we're talking about one hundred fifty dollars increase in the price of the iphone ten if that happens so you mentioned, I phones already are there other products that we should be looking for in terms of the impact of these tears. There's a lot of component so anything that requires a computer chip might be affected. A lot of computer chips, and other components are, are manufactured out here and there's also some indirect costs that could rise because of these tariffs to for instance, stuff that an internet provider like Comcast wireless provider like AT and T buys, they need cell phone tower quit -ment. They need internet routers, and that stuff is facing tariffs to so while AT and T would be, for instance, paying those tariffs. They might raise the cost of your wireless plant because they have to pay more for that equipment. Right. And that's the choice companies face right now as their costs rise, you detectives, they have to decide whether to absorb those costs or how much they might pass on to consumers. Are we hearing anything from companies? To what they're planning to do. Cisco for instance already face a ten percent tariffs since last year. And they said, okay, ten percent we can absorb that. But once they went up to twenty five percent last year. They said we had to raise prices for some of our equipment. We just can't absorb a twenty five percent increase. A lot of people can take ten, they can't do twenty five and companies can also try and avoid the tariffs by shuffling their supply chains to bypass China altogether. What are we hearing from tech companies about their ability to do that? Yeah. Love companies have said they've already taken steps to move production to their other factories outside China. Cisco's done at Ericsson which also makes cell phone tower equipment. They've done that too, but not every company can do that. And there's some logistics involved for instance, if you wanted to move production from China to Vietnam, maybe you already have a factory there. But do you have enough workers to work at that factory? It's not easy to snap your fingers and say, we'll just move it to another country. It's going to be difficult rate, and even if they could there's going to be cost associated with that there's going to be cost. And you might not be able to manufacture a product as quickly or as well, as you did the foreign China, St. we with the Wall Street Journal next week, President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of the g twenty in Japan. Both countries are hoping to make progress after negotiations stalled last month. And now for some related links, US Trade Representative Robert lighthizer testified before Senate, and house committees this week and defended Trump's use of tariffs on Chinese goods, quote, if there's a better idea than tariffs. I'd like to hear it. He told the Senate finance committee, also fortune took a look at why analysts expect iphone production to largely remain in China, despite an offer from Foxconn which assembles the phones to move production to its facilities outside China. I'm Tracey Samuelson. And that's marketplace tech. This is a PM. This is Molly would host of marketplace tech the podcast, where you can hear conversations like legendary Sifi, author, William Gibson, talk about the problems created by the uneven distribution of wealth and technology, helping you think differently about the world you live in every weekday. That's marketplace tech on apple podcasts or wherever you like to download.
The question is not whether the Fed will cut rates but why
"The marketplace word of the day today is expectations expectations used in a sentence. It might sound like this, the Federal Reserve yesterday acted in accordance with expectations and signaled its willingness to cut interest rates the Fed's turned, although not unexpected was a big one from where the central Bank was just six months ago you might remember when it was raising rates. No, we're not talking about a huge cut here. Maybe a quarter of a percentage point. But as marketplace's Tracey Samuelson reports when you are trying to game out what a rate cut is gonna mean in this economy, it is all about expectations. Let's say the fed does shave a quarter of a percent off interest rates at its next meeting. Well, the biggest impact typically on lower rates would be on kind of interest sensitive sectors of the. Enemy housing autos. For example, thing is Tony Rodriguez. Head of fixed income strategy. For new Wien says that the market is already expecting lower rates from the fed, so some rates consumers and businesses pay already reflect that that positive impact is already in the market. So, you know, mortgage rates have come down. Financing rates have come down for you. Know durable equipment, autos, etc. So that cut on its own wouldn't make a huge difference for the economy. What makes a big difference for the economy is does that change expectations about where rates are going into Holland horse? Chief economist for Citi group says, if the fed is cutting rates in the relative near-term, the question is they cut more over the next few months, or next few years in cutting rates, the fed would be sending markets. And I got your back kind of a message that is ready to act if say the trade war starts really slowing economic growth, Carl Tannenbaum is chief economist at Northern Trust, but it's making the statement that the central Bank stands ready to support. Port the continuation of the expansion, and that symbolic message may actually be more powerful than the short room symbolism might be more powerful economically than the cut itself. I'm Tracey Samuelson for
Forced tech transfers happen. But how do they actually work?
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by vast a global cybersecurity company trusted by over four hundred million people avast is dedicated to protect you online. So you can connect to the internet confidently avast keeping the world safe from cyber attacks. Visit them at a vast dot com. And by the Michigan economic Development Corporation, John really founder and CEO at airspace experienced technologies landed his company in Michigan. He said it's because he believes in Michigan revolution is in the air land at 'em agrees. They're working hard to support and grow the state's mobility ecosystem with powerful matchmaking and entrepreneurial resources, the next big thing in mobility, is happening in Michigan. Find out what planet am can offer your business at planet, m dot com. That's P L A, an ET m dot com. Force technology transfers are getting a lot of attention in the US China trade talks. But how do they actually work from American public media? This is marketplace tech. I'm Tracey Samuelson in for Molly would. Here's how force tech transfer doesn't typically work usually, there's no explicit requests from a Chinese official handover this trade secret or else you cannot right here. Instead, it's murkier perhaps a verbal request for sensitive information behind closed doors as part of the government's licensing or approvals process. It's tough to say how prevalent the practice is says Naomi Wilson, she's director of policy focusing on Asia at the information technology industry council, a tech trade group. She talked about the most common ways foreign firms are pressured to part with their IP. We see a couple of most prominent ones in the cybersecurity reviewers James that the Chinese government has established which are very ambiguous, so companies are often, not entirely sure of what compliance means and they may be getting different direction, depending on. On the enforcement arm of the Chinese government that contacts them the other area where we see this is in forced partnerships with Chinese companies. So in the cloud services market, in particular, foreign companies cannot obtain licenses to operate on their own. It's the Chinese partner that obtains the license and that runs the operation under their own brand name for the US or foreign company. And so the idea is when you're required to work with a Chinese partner you're required to share how your business works with that local firm. Right. So think of it this way, essentially the force partnerships give a Chinese company, the inside track onto how the best cloud services providers in the world operate their businesses. So it's sort of like a master class in the business of cloud services. But it's. Not necessarily like here's some valuable piece of code that makes our business run. Right. They're basically learning from the experts at a much faster pace than they would be able to develop this type of business model on their own the close coordination between the foreign cloud service provider and the Chinese partner also does lend itself to circumstances where individuals may be privy to information such as intellectual property that they might not otherwise be. But I also think it's fair to say that companies take very specific and concrete measures to safeguard their intellectual property, which, of course, is the lifeblood of their business, and it seems like when companies do the math calculating maybe the cost of force tech transfer verses the opportunity that they have to operate in China. They. Often move forward with their Chinese operation. Right. And it's interesting that you bring up the cost and the potential cost of operating in China. And the potential negative cost say think companies more and more have to factor in the cost of dealing with US policies, as well as Chinese policies in the current climate. The China is an exceptionally influential and large market. And so pulling out of China completely for many companies is just not an option because it would put them at such a competitive disadvantage. Not only in China but globally. If you're not in China, you're not a recognized name brand in China than, really, what are the prospects for success in the rest of Asia Naomi Wilson with the information technology industry. Council. The Chinese government has long denied for technology transfers are problem, but this spring, it passed a foreign investment law that says foreign firms shouldn't be forced to transfer their tech to Chinese companies. It was seen as an effort to appease the US, but there are also concerns about how it will be enforced. And now for some related links. The US trade Representative did a big investigation into four second transfers in China last year. You can read their two hundred page report for a lot more information on how this happens. Also, Bloomberg put together a helpful Q and A on tech transfers a few days ago. It includes a roundup of some high profile court cases where companies have alleged. They were made to share their secrets. I'm Tracey Samuelson. And that's marketplace tech. This is a PM. This is Molly would host of marketplace tech the podcast, where you can hear conversations like legendary Sifi, author, William Gibson, talk about the problems created by the uneven distribution of wealth and technology, helping you think differently about the world you live in every weekday. That's marketplace tech on apple podcasts or wherever you like to download.
Facebook's crypto dream
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by ultimate software dedicated to putting people first with innovative solutions for HR payroll and talent management. Learn more at ultimate software dot com. Ultimate software people. First. Baseba goes crypto, because why actually from American public media, this is marketplace tech? I'm Tracey Samuelson in for Molly would. Facebook is planning to launch a cryptocurrency in twenty twenty it's called libra and Facebook already has a bunch of high profile partners, lined up. Uber Spotify and notably. Big players in the payment space, like visa, MasterCard and PayPal. The partners will jointly manage the currency through a nonprofit association and Facebook says they'll be a firewall of sorts between users finances, and the social network. It won't use financial data to improve ad targeting on Facebook. So why create a digital wallet and why do it with a crypto currency? We say L S covers payments and crypto currency at the research firm Moffitt. Nathan said she says Facebook wants to be a commerce pot form. They have a major goal to start facilitating commerce over their platforms as a whole do revenue stream for them beyond the social media revenue, streams and payments are essential to facilitate in commerce. So like eighty five percent of. Facebook users when you look across all their properties, including WhatsApp, and Instagram and Facebook are actually in developing markets. So as a means for empowering their WhatsApp users that are sitting in all these countries where those what's up users have a phone and have a Wes up account, but may not have a Bank account, or even if they do they may limit their use of the local currency because of its volatility. They're trying to empower that group of individuals talk to me about the trust factor. Right. Because that's been a huge issue around Facebook. And now we're introducing a wallet into that scenario. Yeah. It's perhaps one of the most challenging things. Let me put it that way that this initiative will have to work through is the process of distancing itself from Facebook. So they're quarterbacking the creation of libra, but it's, you know, once it's up and running in twenty twenty they will be one of one hundred or so roughly. Members of the association with in theory. No more control over the system than any of the other core. Constituents even their wallet. Which is, you know, being called ca- libra. They're setting up as a separate subsidiary from Facebook specifically, so that it can meet all of the regulatory compliance and kind of maintain the data separation, let it go wrong. What should we be worried about well payments are extremely messy and a highly regulated and very different in every jurisdiction? And so most countries haven't even decided how they wanna treat crypto currencies. Are they a commodity like gold? Are they a currency like dollars? Are they a security like stock in a company like it's actually treated in all three of those ways in different places? So given that not only will libra have to navigate two hundred plus countries different treatments, most of. The countries don't even have the treatment established. Lisa LS covers payments and crypto currencies at the research, firm Moffat Nathanson that big open question of regulation, Ella says, how receptive countries are to Facebook's currency will likely have a big impact on where out the currency and win. It could take a phased approach. And now for some related links. If you really want to nerd out on this, you can check out Facebook's, white paper for more on the mechanics of how libra will work how it will be backed by a reserve of real assets. And the association that will govern it and for something maybe lighter, remember, the winkle Vaas twins Tyler and Cameron sued. Facebook founder, Mark Zuckerberg, claiming he stole their idea and settled for sixty five million dollars. The twins have been big crypto investors and said on CBS Sunday morning last weekend that they need to be frenemies with Facebook in may the financial times reported that suck and the winkle vi- have actually talked about the new currency. I'm Tracey Samuelson. And that's marketplace tech. This is APN. Marketplace turns thirty this year and to celebrate we're going back to the eighties. Checkout are totally radical new. Thank you gifts that you can choose from when you become a marketplace investor, your donation, large or small will help us keep bringing you news and information you trust for years to come. Donate today at marketplace dot org. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by click share an award-winning wireless presentation system with click share in your meeting. You can share your screen instantly from any device, no more awkward small talk, or wasted time as you wait for tech problems to be fixed. Click share instantly projects any speakers laptop tablet or phone onto a presentation screen so everyone can work together share their ideas and create something great. That's the click share effect. Visit click share free trial dot com to learn more and sign up for your free trial.
ADP: Job creation drops to 9-year low in May
"Arguably the three most relevant letters in this economy. Today are a D N P ADP. That's a company does payroll processing among many other things. It is also, we should tell you an underwriter of this program, but one of the things that does with all that payroll data, it has put out a monthly report on private sector employment. How much of it there is in this morning? We learned that last month, there was less of it than we thought there would be just twenty seven thousand new jobs, last month, a giant drop from the two hundred and seventy five thousand jobs. ADP says we added in April. Now one data point does not panic warrant so bear that in mind. But one big reason for the weakness was small businesses companies with less than nineteen employees. So a drop in employment. So what is going on with the little guys? Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson gets. Is going Nick given our open the sandwich king in Long Island city, queens, this past January sandwiches. Yes, plus some hot foods and catering. He has about five employee's. And he take another one or two, if he could find them hard for good workers at a way, that is fair for both people. He starts new employees around fourteen or fifteen dollars an hour. It's hard to compete with somebody that's offering nineteen dollars if you're just a deli, you know what I mean. How do you put that into your payroll? How'd you fit that into your budget symbolical in a tight labor market, where companies have to increasingly fight for workers, small businesses are losing the battle, Mark Zandi the chief economist at Moody's analytics, which puts together, these payroll reports for ADP small businesses, or distinct disadvantage, relative to the big guys. Because the big guys have lots of resources, they can raise wages. They can provide other benefits and attract workers, small companies just don't have the ability to keep up and they're not this smaller the small business. The harder. The hiring companies with more than twenty employees are out competing those with fewer says Jim Diffley, he's with IHS market, which also track small business hiring. Matters here, intense track workers and influence of this tight labor market is having says, in addition to higher wages and better benefits workers may also prefer the stability of bigger companies in New York. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU
"To have you long, arguably, the three most relevant letters in this economy. Today are a d and p ADP a company does payroll processing among many other things. It is also, we should tell you an underwriter of this program. But one of the things that does with all that payroll data aid has put out a monthly report on private sector employment. How much of it there is in this morning, we learned that last month, there was less than we thought there would be just twenty seven thousand new jobs, last month, a giant drop from the two hundred and seventy five thousand jobs. ADP says we added in April now one data point does not panic warrant so bear that in mind. But one big reason for the weakness was small businesses companies with less than nineteen employee's. So a drop in employment. So what is going on with the little guys? Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson gets. Going nick. Open the sandwich king in Long Island city, queens, this past January sandwiches. Yes, plus them hot foods and catering. He has about five, and please. And he take another one or two, if he could find them good workers, that way, that is fair for both people. He starts please around fourteen or fifteen dollars an hour. It's hard to compete with somebody that's offering nineteen dollars just deli. You know what I mean? How do you put that into your payroll? How'd you fit that into your budget symbolical in a tight labor market, where companies have to increasingly fight for workers, small businesses are losing the battle, Mark Zandi the chief economist at Moody's analytics, which puts together, these payroll reports for ADP small business, sir, distinct disadvantage, relative to the big guys. Because the big guys have lots of resources, they can raise wages. They can provide other benefits and attract workers, small companies just don't have the ability to keep up and they're not this smaller small business the harder. The hiring companies. With more than twenty employees are out competing those with fewer says Jim Diffley, he's with IHS market, which also track small business hiring matters. Track workers and influence of the labor market is having. He says, in addition to higher wages and better benefits workers may also prefer the stability of bigger companies in New York. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace this being a presidential election year. And no, I know not technically, but the twenty twenty campaign is already well, along a lot of issues are getting a lot more play than they ordinarily would our choice today. Affordable housing unaffordable housing in reality, especially for would be buyers, and renters at the lower end of the income, spectrum, it's become a talking point on the presidential campaign trail for housing has. But what defines affordable turns out there is a definition at least a guideline really thirty percent three zero percent housing costs should not exceed thirty percent of your income. I know I can hear your eyes rolling from here. Here's marketplace's Amy Scott to break it down. Like most sound economic policy. The thirty percent. Benchmark comes from an old adage, that a week's worth of wages should allow for someone to pay for a month of rent. Dan McHugh with Harvard joint center for housing studies says, actually it's a little more scientific than that in the late nineteen sixties congress based Federal Housing subsidies on studies that had shown the typical family spent about twenty five percent of its income on housing. Then in the eighties McHugh says the single thirty percent rule was adopted across all of the HUD, subsidized housing programs and some house, like the two thousand calorie diet or the ten thousand daily steps were supposed to take that became a rule of them for everyone. It makes absolutely no sense. In an economy us, the United States David berry teaches public policy and economics at Virginia Tech, he says higher, earning families can often afford much more than thirty percent. For others even thirty percent is too much. For example, he says people in low income neighborhoods tend to live much farther from their jobs. So they're housing may be technically affordable than they end up spending so much more money on community, which is radio kills them. Initially there are other ways to gauge affordability says Diane Intel with the national low income housing coalition, like how much money a family would need after paying for housing to afford, basic necessities. But that's complicated to measure on a large scale for now at the federal level and among most housing, experts and researchers the thirty percent threshold is the right place to start at last count. Thirty eight million Americans were paying more than that. I'm Amy Scott for marketplace. Coming up tomorrow on the marketplace morning report. There are some changes come at a healthcare for veterans as we all know changing healthcare is never easy. So we will break that story down for you. On Wall Street today, traders took the Powell put the belief reality based or not that fed chair, J pal was going to cut interest rates to keep stocks rising. They rolled in some. Hey, maybe those Mexican tariffs, aren't actually gonna happen on Monday anyway. And they went on a buying spree. We will have the details when we do the numbers. Well, let's see. Now what does the latest.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson reports app developers want slash neat to have their products in the apple app store because that's where Apple's customers have to download apps. John Butler is a telecom analyst at Bloomberg intelligence. The small guy actually has a shot. Thanks to the apple app store 'cause they get on a platform where there. There are a lot of eyeball, and they get distribution that they otherwise wouldn't be able to generate on their own. But apple takes a cut thirty percent for one off purchases and for the first year of subscriptions. It's actually pretty common business model says every gardener at the center for democracy and technology think of a grocery store where our food manufacturers pay slotting fees to get their products on the shelf and where they pay for the right to promote their product in the produce section. The issue here is whether that fee is unfairly high Spotify thinks it is and has asked European regulators to look into it net. Netflix doesn't allow users to purchase subscriptions through the app store anymore. They have to go to its website. And that could be a problem for apple and Google, which charges a similar commission for its app store. People don't realize how big outdoors have become an important. They are for profitability. Then Schachter an internet analyst at MacQuarie says apple would take a big hit. If it had to cut its commission say by half. Could impact their overall profit but somewhere between seven and fifteen percent for one of the world's largest companies at quite a lot of money. But he thinks that's exactly what might happen that both apple and Google will eventually have to cut their fees. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. On Wall Street. Yeah, I already gave it away. But we'll have details when we do the numbers. It's been.
The Exim Bank Could Gain Strength This Week
"American trade policy. There is news of the US export economy. The Export Import Bank which helps finance the sale of made in America products. Overseas hasn't been at full strength since two thousand fourteen but as marketplace's Tracey Samuelson reports that might change this week for. Two years. The EximBank has been the subject of debate. Is it a valuable tool to help us companies sell abroad, or does it mainly benefit big multinationals that don't really need it support? The White House is in the valuable tool camp says Gary Heff Bauer with the Peterson institute. Who is quite focused on increasing US exports and historically the EximBank has fostered. US exports. Bet since the Bank can't prove financing over ten million dollars. It's just doing a lot less than it used to. Bankers operating a level. It hasn't seen maybe forty or fifty years. Fred Hochberg is a former president and chairman of Export Import Bank in two thousand sixteen and twenty seventeen he was its sole board member he says during the Obama years the Bank financed roughly fifteen to twenty billion a year last year about three and a half billion dollars in Financing's. The Bank may soon be back to full muster. Thanks in part to recently changed rules in how the Senate confirms presidential nominees, but the banks near-disappearance has given its critics new ammunition. Very Nikkei J at George Mason's Mercatus center says despite its reduced capacity. We've found is basically the impact on export was absolutely. They was non as we expected an issue that sir to come up when the banks chartered needs to be renewed. Again, this fall.
U.S. Worker Productivity Advances at Best Rate Since 2010
"We had best begins today. I think with the definition worker productivity is the metric of the day and in very basic terms. It is the number of widgets produced per hour worked. I mentioned it because we learned this morning in the first quarter of the year productivity rose at the fastest pace since two thousand fourteen inserts caveat here about quarterly numbers bouncing around a lot. But generally speaking, we are seeing increased productivity now that is weird because more productivity usually leads to higher wages, which really isn't happening at the Richard think, and sometimes it can lead to inflation, which is definitely not happening. So what gives marketplace's Tracey Samuelson hopped into a metaphorical boat to explain. Picture crew team. Two. One jumping eight rowers workers and a manager the Cox in on each trip. Aparna matter is an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, she says if you want the boat to go faster, the owner could maybe get those rowers some better ores or faster boat. It's the same number of people in abode, but having access to tools just makes the board go that much faster, or maybe the owner could figure out some way to improve results ro faster without a big investment. Dean Baker is at the center for economic and policy research and tight labor market. Employers have incentive to try to Condomi's on labor. They have an incentive to figure out the reorganized their workplace to be more efficient Baker says if companies can produce more with the same workers, they don't have to compete to hire new workers in a tight labor market, which often means paying more and those companies can absorb the modest wage increases. We have been seeing without raising prices, which may help explain why inflation is so low can Kutner is an economist at Williams College. We tend to even flation as. Happening when people are trying to buy more stuff than is being produced. If you get a raise, and you have extra money to spend that increased demand for goods can push prices up. But if you want to buy more stuff at the same time that the economy is making more stuff, they think it's the balance between those two that is preventing inflation from rising, but if wage gains started to really outpaced productivity growth, that's when you start to worry more about inflation.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Ryssdal. Wednesday, the seventeenth of April get as always to have a long everybody to possibly slash probably inter related items with which to begin on this Wednesday item. The I will learn this morning that the Chinese economy grew six point four percent in the first quarter. That's from your earlier and for those not keeping score at home that is more growth than a whole lot of people expected item number two from the Wall Street Journal. There's talk that there might be some kind of U S China trade deal signing ceremony come late may or early June, which gets us to the synthesis part of this program. How does news item one Aera covering Chinese economy fit into news item to Chinese trade talks? Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson gets us go. The question is whereas China's economic recovery coming from and the answer is mostly government knit concentrate. China researcher at the rhodium group economic. Over the past three years has been. De leveraging effort that the government pursued to reduce debt. China had been trying to tamp down on lending to boost its financial stability, but as growth slowed last year its priorities shifted to boost growth, it's now encouraging London particularly to Chinese corporate. What was previously? A stifling affect has. Now become a driver of growth again corporate borrowing has shot up to a six year high according to data from the China beige book, which tracks the country's economy by serving thousands of Chinese companies Shahzad. Khazei is its managing director is almost entirely a credit driven or credit recovery. What you see is that anybody who wanted alone in Q one got one that is really what has propelled this coupon. One recovery administration had previously argued that China's weakening economy would motivate Beijing close a trade deal. So the question now is whether that leverage goes away with its current economic rebound doesn't think so he says China's still wants an agreement each preside trade policy. Professor at Cornell, agrees the. The US to has some leverage over China because China clearly wants to deal, but cautions US doesn't have a huge advantage in these negotiations. Either the White House also wants to deal US financial markets also seem to have been boosted by the prospects of L S, China trade deal. So I think it could have negative effect on both financial markets and economic activity in both countries. If it be listener struck says the question continues to be what that looks like and how comprehensive it might be. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. Okay. Tracy having done the, synthesis. We now move to practical application as in what does all of this American trade policies are committed spring two thousand nineteen what does it mean for people out there actually running businesses for that we have gone to one of our Goto Goldenberg is the president of the Delaware steel company, Pennsylvania. Lease. It's good to talk to you again. Great to speak with you. Let me give you the first and usual, Lisa Goldenberg. Question has business has steal these days. I give it a fair. Disappointing is a better way of saying. I'm not down in the dumps because I rarely get that. But I'm just things are not coming along as they should be. This should be a pretty busy time of year. And I'm disappointed to say the things are not as robust as expected. How come what's going on? You know, I it's tough. I I gave a very strong first-quarter forecast. And I completely blow. It on humbled to say, I guess that happens from time to time all the indicators gave us reason to believe I quarters always strong in this would be equally strong, and it just wasn't. I think manufacturing volumes a little bit down. And I also think that margins are really getting squeezed. It's difficult to say why chaos fatigue? I think the world is chaotic. Yeah. That's where I was going to go. I was going to ask you to quantify uncertainty. Right. Because here we are year in the Trump administration's trade program tariffs, and people are still suffering it out, we know what's going on with China. How big a deal is uncertainty or as you just called it chaos fatigue. Well, I think it's a continuum where you first start when there's chaos it's excited and people scrambled to buy or to take positions because it could get. Really bad. Right. So if I told you that drought was coming. You've run him by water. But if after a year drought wasn't coming. You wouldn't buy that much water? And after a while you start to think what about the water I have, and I better start drinking that and do I need more. And at the same time the administration saying we're gonna have a deal any minute. So not only drought not coming. But in fact, you might have an endless supply of water. So how much water would you go by? So it's the same thing with steel and the fatigue is nobody knows how to plan. Everyone's numbers are just it's dramatically off. So something to change. I'm going to ask you a personal question here. You're ready. Go for it. I'm pretty open. I I know are that's why I feel. How how long have you been in the steel business nineteen eighty-seven show without putting any of those? This is unprecedented in and all my goodness. It's cataclysmic is this one of the most unusual period you've seen in in your industry. No in that sense. That's a fair question. We've been in horrible feel markets scary downward spiral. No end in sight. This is not that. This is something in highly different. I speak to people all day who think the administration is doing a great job. They just want policy, and I gotta tell you in manufacturing. There's kai. There's a lot they just got unbelievable tax credits. So it's been a huge boost manufacturing and people who really dislike the, you know administration. They're saying well, okay. I don't like you. Gimme some policy. So I can make a plan. How much is this chaos slow down? And I'm talking just simply dealing with paperwork and all the tariff exclusion request and all of that stuff that comes along with this. Okay. It's so burdensome, so I had them waiting for months to steal for steeled across the border from Mexico to the United States and the answer. I'm giving day after day is you'll just have to wait your turn. It's really there is no proper way to handle the paperwork, so steel sits I got a call very good Canadian customer screaming the other day, the paperwork was taking forever to cross the border and blaming my team, and we worked with Canadians two hundred years Certa effortlessly, this is a new drama suddenly were can battle with our trade partners. It's bizarre. It's craziness. Lisa goldenberg. She is the president of the Delaware steel company of Pennsylvania. Lisa. Thanks much. We'll talk to you. Thank you so much happy spring. It's gonna it's gonna improve down the southern end of this island today on a lovely spring day. It has to be said traders were mostly black. We'll have the details when we do the numbers..
Where is China's economy recovery coming from?
"To possibly slash probably inter related items with which to begin on this Wednesday item. The first we learned this morning that the Chinese economy grew six point four percent in the first quarter. That's from your earlier and for those not keeping score at home that is more growth than a whole lot of people expected item. Number two from the Wall Street Journal. There is talk that there might be some kind of U S China trade deal signing ceremony come late may or early June, which gets us to the synthesis part of this program. How does news item one a recovering Chinese economy fit into news item to Chinese trade talks? Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson gets us going. The question is whereas China's economic recovery coming from and the answer is mostly it's government. Nee concentrate is a researcher at the rhodium group. The biggest economic policy story for China over the past three years has been this deleveraging effort that the government pursued to reduce debt. China had been trying to tamp down on lending to boost its financial stability, but as growth slowed last year its priorities shifted to boost growth, it's now encouraging lending particularly to Chinese corporate. What was previously a stifling effect has now become a driver of growth again corporate barring has shot up to a six year high according to data from the China beige book, which tracks the country's economy by surveying thousands of Chinese companies Shahzad khazei is its managing director. This is almost entirely a credit driven or credit soak recovery. What you see is that anybody who wanted to loan in Q one got one. And that is really what has propelled this Q one recovery. The Trump administration had previously argued that China's weakening economy would motivate Beijing to close a trade deal. So the question now is whether that leverage goes away with its current economic rebound doesn't think so he says China's still wants. An agreement Issoire produce trade policy, professor at Cornell agrees, the US has some leverage over China because China clearly wants to deal, but preside cautions US doesn't have a huge vantage in these negotiations. Either the White House also wants to deal US financial markets also seemed to have been boosted by the prospects of a U S China trade deal. So I think it could have a negative effect on both financial markets and economic activity in both countries if a deal is not struck precise. The question continues to be what that deal look like and how comprehensive it might be.
Social media, elections and fake news: India edition
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by portfolio books publisher of an economists walks into a brothel by Alison Schrager, a legal brothel isn't where you'd expect to find an economist. But Allison traeger isn't your typical communist in her new book Schrager interviews, some of the world's most interesting risk-takers from sex workers to big wave surfers to bring real world applications to risk assessment. After all wall streeters aren't the only ones taking risks every day and economists walks into a brothel is available wherever books are sold. Social media elections and bake news. The India edition from American public media. This is marketplace tech. I'm Tracey Samuelson in for me. What? India holds national elections next week. And as we get ready to head to the polls, they're being targeted with false and misleading information. The platform of choice is what's up the messaging service owned by Facebook? That allows users to send encrypted messages to other individuals groups of people or forward messages they've received according to a survey by Microsoft, sixty four percent of all Indian say they've encountered fake news. So the role of what's app in the election is the subject of this week's quality assurance where we take a closer. Look at a story that's been in the news Kinjo Petiot ag- has been following this story for our partner at the BBC. She talked to us about how you BIC witness WhatsApp is in India v have out a friend of rinse groups on what Fabu have a colleague group on bought fab it few everything and also largely due share news and information if Bill and a lot of that does end up to be fake can communicate ample of an incidence of fake. News spreading over what's up. Give Feek news it on polishing what they've said how the left about things. And how the cried about things how they laughed about things. I'll give you an example, a recent examples you knew in India Pakistan tensions were high recently after the attack in Alabama. You know, one politicians pitcher was a writer in India. And it was shown that visiting the the last writer for soldier and over there. He's laughing, and you know, it was literally a doctor image. It was basically being spread to show that look this politician from this particular party was laughing about this. So this is really right or do you really think we should vote for him or the party? What does Facebook and what's up doing to try and stop the spread of fake news? Yes. So recently Facebook as actually pulled out a lot of political thing that either the these are the groups and accounts that are involved in inappropriate behavior. Now, it's not very clear what the mean by that. So they've blocked those accounts they have block. Accounts. And what tap has. Also started a helpline to verify fake news with lever in Indians or using WhatsApp can share pitchers we'd use of it what fab and ask whether vivere authentic. Yeah. And messages on what's app are encrypted which actually makes this harder for governments and the company to trace or crackdown on yet. Absolutely. But if all so the unique selling proposition for what's up for consumer. What if use of because you know, you those really want privacy to their conversations that people to their to their called and to kind of message that they exchanging if what type does agree to remove encryption that basically means that they are compromising on, you know, the the kind of privacy they are giving to it few. And then use those might not be happy with what? So this is. This is really going to be sticky point the gunman. Indian government has been pressurising what's up to to to make information more. Accessible to the gunmen to see who's Hussein what? And who's doing what on WhatsApp, but I don't think going to be that easy for what fab to agree to that. And for the for the government to get to do that. Because they've they will be both of them will be criticized. Do you think that the spread of fake news on what's app could actually influence the Indian election over cannot on that for sure, but we have already seen in the last year how the kind of information that is shared on what the have influence on people social behavior lynching of people on the streets of after the spread of rumors of child kidnapper have have led to people being killed? So that if that is a good indicator that information that is shared and shared widely on what fab can change people's behavior and people stinking Kinjo penny walk with the BBC that tip line. Cantrell mentioned. It might not be the real time feedback tool. It initially appeared to be BuzzFeed reported this week that it wasn't getting timely responses to the. Techs and links it submitted to test the hotline in response proto an Indian startup that's partnered with WhatsApp on the service clarified. It's actually a research project, it'll mostly gather data and won't be able to respond to every submission. It receives it shouldn't be relied upon to combat political. Rumors in the run-up to India's election. And now for some related links before India, there was Brazil, the Washington Post. Chronicle spread of fake news on what's app in Brazil's presidential elections. This fall, we've got linked to that coverage on our website and last month Facebook, founder, Mark Zuckerberg came out with a long piece about the future of social media. He thinks it'll revolve around private interactions similar to what's up a digital living room to complement Facebook's digital public square. And if he's right he said, the switch to private communications will make it even harder for companies to spot and stop fake news. I'm Tracey Samuelson. And that's marketplace tech. This is APN.
Homework is much harder when you can't get online at home
"This. Marketplace podcast is brought to you by aqua. The open source digital experience company. Brands, often struggled to find a comprehensive solution to power their drubel websites and applications aqueous platform enables you to build operate in optimize at scale as the open source leader. Aqua gives customers around the world the freedom to build tomorrow on their terms. Learn more awkward dot com and by Rochester institute of technology. Faculty and students at Rochester institute of technology have been studying fish inspired by their short powerful movements. A team of creative engineering students are using design thinking and innovative technology to construct robotic fish, it just might create the next wave of prosthetic devices. They're onto something life changing. Learn more about the project at RIT dot EDU slash tech. Hallmark is a lot harder. When you can't get online at home from American public media. This is marketplace tech. I'm Tracey Samuelson in for Molly would. Homework is a big part of any child's education and homework today means getting online to watch a video the teacher assigned do research Philip forms and worksheets but pure research says almost a quarter of students from low income families often struggled to finish their homework because they lack a dependable computer or internet connection. It's what experts referred to as the hallmark gap. Just Clark is an education reporter at New Orleans public radio in a city where nearly forty percent of children live in poverty to help understand the homework gap. She shares one students experience I wanted to find out what it's liked try to graduate high school without internet access. So I met a student. I know outside his school went after noon. Can you just introduce yourself? I'm Larry Brown. How old are you? Currently nineteen Leary is super thoughtful. In fact, when I met him he was getting ready to head to American University in DC to speak on a panel about gun. Violence money is tight for his family. There's no extra New Orleans teachers, I've talked to say about half their students don't have internet access at home. Do you have internet at home? Now. Do you ever? Do your homework on your phone. Sort of use the internet and the answers eventually come up to me. The keyboard is not the best thing to try to type on sometimes the phone just doesn't cut it not for a project like a research paper for that. Larry needs a full size screen a reliable connection and an actual keyboard at either go to Ibrar, but any other place that has no in excess or of I was like ask a friend who does have access or I'd like put it down to or put it on my gender. Yes. Larry keeps an agenda. He's a planner. He has to be with his schedule. Larry works late nights at a fast food place. But sometimes even with all the planning getting online for homework just doesn't work out like for this one science project when he had to map out of food chain. So it's like only forty minutes and me being in the library. And then we're so that became pretty problematic 'cause I couldn't keep going through. Run into the library trying to hear them and get what I cannot in and didn't run to work. So I kind of gave honestly really was your teacher say well, explain his you understand their, you know, you have a lot going on in your life. And I see that you are still trying she had to fail him on that assignment. Leary says most of his assignments don't require the internet. But the ones that do are often important things that make up a big part of his grade a lot of things on the internet that can meet work a lot easier than not having gets kind of like, oh, if only you know, he just keeps trying finding ways to get online and get his work done. That's just clerk in Orleans. You can find more digital divide stories at marketplace dot org. Look for the series called evenly distributed. And now for some related links one. I was school district is turning to local businesses to increase internet access after hours a local bakery pharmacy a couple of fast food chains. Have all agreed to let kids use their wifi to do homework. The superintendent of winter set community schools told Ed search site for education tech news that not a single business. She reached out to turn her down. And at the other end of the digital divide. The New York Times took a look this fall at affluent families concerns that their children are spending too much time with technology. Some parents featured in the story we're joining forces to try and limit their kids screen time. They're concerned technology's impact on their children's, health and development outweighs educational opportunities. It might offer. I'm Tracey Samuelson. And that's marketplace tech. This is a PM. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by with Sabi cloud storage thinking about moving your data storage to the cloud. We saw these enterprise class cloud storage at a fifth of the price of Amazon S three and up to six times faster with no hidden fees for egress or API requests who Sabas low cost high speed fully secure storage blows away the competition, including Google and Microsoft distribution starts here. Do the math for yourself and start a free trial. It was Sabi dot com.
What if we just ... closed the border?
"Full disclosure, I suppose that whole close the southern border thing. Not my original idea. If we don't make a deal with congress the border is going to be closed under percent, President Trump obviously in the Oval Office today. White House aides had been hemming and Haworth all day about whether the president was really serious about his threat to close the border with Mexico security is his main concern, the president says, and as you just heard he is completely serious except the economy. Sure, there will be avacado shortages and whatnot. If the president goes through with his threat, but let's think really big here, shall we say the entire American automobile industry. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson gets us gone. Let's start really small with a car seat the leather. Phone a little electric bit. That moves it forward and backward and changes the incline. Many of those bits were made or symbol in. Mexico says Keith head a professor at the university of British Columbia along the way, it may have gone back to three four times across the Texas border in Mexico. I'm back to the US and without a certain piece. You can't make a seat that seats can make a car like that story about the for the want of a nail. The battle was lost automakers. Simply don't stockpile their parts they have them delivered as they're needed. And there are lots of parts that can only be sourced in Mexico says Kristen g check with the center for automotive research. We would see a ripple effect pretty quickly. I think within a week. We would shut down almost all of the US auto motive industry. Yeah. Shut down within a week. Michelle Krebs is an analyst with auto. Trader we saw that with the earthquakes in Japan? There was one electric component. It's shut down a lot of plants not just Japanese but American ones because that's where they got that this. I would be much much bigger. In fact, Charles chess, bro and economist at Cox automotive says, the consequences would be so dramatic you the president do this for more than a day or two without we'll make no economic zone. So we something like this in place. The added supply chain between the US and Mexico is so integrated one simply can't function without the other.
What role does government play in innovation?
"This. Marketplace podcast is brought to you by the university of Florida Warrington college of business transform your future with an MBA from one of America's top ten universities. Learn more at Warrington dot ufl dot EDU slash MBA. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by equities N a premier platform bringing private markets to the public get access to tech unicorns like Uber. Airbnb and more sign up for free today at equities N dot com slash tech. A look at the secret sauce of innovation and it's less glamorous cousin adaptation from American public media. This is marketplace tech. I'm Tracey Samuelson in for Molly would. If you're a government day, the Chinese government looking to spur more innovation in your country. How do you do that you can think of innovation as a ladder of sorts? It might start with imitation. And then progressed you adaptation like tweaking a foreign idea to develop it for a local market. Finally, hopefully, you reach invention, perhaps even big industry changing ones. But the steps needed to climb that ladder can be elusive murky, and there's only so much governments can do says Regina abroa- me a professor at the university of Pennsylvania's Wharton school of business. I talked to her about China's efforts at state-sponsored innovation. It's something country. Can't cause to happen. It has to happen at a much more micro level, which is gonna what's the form of business organization in your country. Is it a collaborative is it a hierarchical places their scope for collaboration? What's the the nature of your education system? Are you teaching children to be problem solvers or are you rewarding? What are you? Awarding them for are you rewarding them for getting the answer's right or you're rewarding them for seeing something that you did wrong. But you know, I think we've I think we're at a point now where anyone who thinks that it's just about plopping cluster together meaning to say and China has lots of these right? Let's let's have one university in the next. Let's put a little tech park and extra. Let's do this other thing and magic show happen. It doesn't always work then then last, but not least. And this is not a trivial point you need a legal system where intellectual property is protected, right? Which is a chief US complaint about operating in China Raina, right? But it's not just us firms Chinese firms themselves also want to make sure that their IP is protected. It's interesting because the communist party's main in China twenty twenty five planets received a lot of attention recently for its attempts to you know, pick and develop specific Chinese industries is that type of industrial policy successful in fostering innovation. I think it's successful in fostering market leadership. Perhaps even market domination of a given sector within the Chinese context. And also potentially allowing for firms to compete in a way that gives them an advantage in the global marketplace. So it's not necessarily the case that industrial policy equals innovation policy. Yeah. So this idea of like, creative add patient versus a truly innovative breakthrough. But at a patient, you know is innovation. I mean, you know, as at the end of the day, this sort of hacking and making it work is a kind of innovation right? And certainly if we look at Chinese companies and their ability to sort of really target mid range markets, and how successful they've been in that space. It has been because they've been able to sort of make that those those adaptations that are targeted to our particular customer. They're trying to sell to. So it's it's not that China made in twenty twenty five has not succeeded in many ways it has. But that in an insane China the leading innovator in the world today. I think that we have to be a little bit more cautious on that front. Regina balmy at the Wharton school of business. Professor Rami made an important distinction. She said this isn't about the capacity of the Chinese people to be innovative. It's about the context and system they have to innovate within. Now for some related links. Professor brownie wrote an article called why China can't innovate in the Harvard. Business review back in two thousand fourteen much of that still applies today this China Morning Post had a couple of recent articles on China's intellectual property articles how they could be strengthened to meet US demands in the ongoing trade war and foster innovation the number of intellectual property rights cases in China increased more than forty percent last year and finally on the theme of creative thinking, there's this quantum magazine story from two thousand seventeen I just keep going back to it's about a retired statistician who solved a math proof others had struggled with for more than fifty years. He had the idea while brushing his teeth. I love stories of late bloomers. They give me hope. I'm Tracey Samuelson. And that's marketplace tech. This is a PM. You trust marketplace to cover more than business news. You rely on us to connect the dots between complex economic issues. And why they matter to you to keep public service journalism going, strong, please go to marketplace dot org today and become a marketplace investor with a donation in any amount, we appreciate your support. This. Marketplace podcast is brought to you by Kronos, look into any great business. Whether it's a manufacturer or a hotel a store school or hospital look into each and every one of them and you'll find the same thing. Great people at Cronos believe that great businesses are powered by great people. And with Kronos workforce solutions, it'll help you find them keep them and engage them. Learn more at kronoScom. Kronos, workforce innovation that works.
Lyft IPO makes it the ridesharing star, at least for today
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by pinata for businesses. And universities Panatta was everything YouTube isn't with enterprise grade security Bilton recording and live streaming and a unique search engine that finds any words spoken in any video Panatta was how professionals share knowledge and by Oregon state university campus wanna take the fast track to your career and computing, earn your computer science degree one hundred percent online from Oregon state and tap into unlimited career possibilities in any field. Learn more at e campus dot Oregon, state dot EDU slash tech. Lift gets out of Uber shadow at least for today from American public media. This is marketplace tech. I'm Tracey Samuelson in for Molly would. The ride hailing platform lift good public today. Ahead of Uber, which is expected to list in the coming weeks drivers from both companies went on strike in southern California. Earlier this week to protest changes in how their pay is calculated which they say amounts to a pay cut. Now, these drivers are contractors. They're not employee's. That's a key part of lifts business model, but it's reliance on drivers is also a risk factor lift mentioned in its paperwork to go public others include new regulations or the possibility it will never be profitable for every dollar revenue. The company brings in it actually winds up forty cents in the red still lift has been able to pick up more riders in the last couple of years. Thanks in part to big public. Stumbles by Uber which prompted some users to look for alternatives. I asked says Siddiqi a tech reporter covering transit for the Washington Post wear lift goes from here lift is sort of billing itself as the nice guy of the ride hailing ups even on the heels of some of that. Backlash against Uber. Lift undertook, these beano these social campaigns charitable giving, you know, where you could take a ride and donate a certain portion of that fair to a charity. So I think lifts continues to try to capitalize on that image. Whether that works out for them in the end remains to be seen. But certainly they're going to keep pushing that message, right? We saw this week some drivers protesting pay cuts, and there is sort of baked into this model into lifts business model kind of tension between the the worker contractor the drivers and the company. Yeah. I mean look lifts ultimate their end goal. Here is you know, going driverless. And once they do that, you know, you can give rides sort of on the cheap. I've heard in the range of twenty cents a mile. So it it seems like the companies. Can achieve profitability at that point. Yeah. I mean, you know, the you mentioned the the goal of going driverless. So we know what what lifts does today. We know that it it's, you know, a an app that links passengers and drivers for on demand rides. But what lift could become whether it's driverless or perhaps, you know, a more regulated company. We don't really know. Right. So so what are investors buying in this IPO? They're sort of buying hope, you know, the consistent line that I've gotten from investors is somewhere between you know. Why would you ever invest to do invest? It's potentially really lucrative. But don't put all your eggs in one basket. What's left gonna use the money for? That's the question. You know with the company like tesla, you go public. You have the money to do something like build a consumer passenger vehicle like the model three with the new left. The question is does this mean like the era of investor? Subsidised fares, you know, that are maybe super cheap, those are those fares over my sense is no, but it could be sort of the beginning of that transition. And when you look at the risks facing the company other potential headwinds how big a factor. Do you think labor is in terms of drivers organizing or potentially, you know, a court ruling that drivers are employees not contractors yet? Those things are huge, you know, that's sort of the core of their overhead costs, you know. They don't they don't really have, you know, fleets of cars that they operate with some exceptions is. So drivers are the key question here. And if anything happens to change the status of drivers from contractors to employees, if there's court ruling that mandates, you know, better treatment of dry. Drivers more vestment and drivers a living wage. Those would be potentially massive for a company that relies on this type of model fezzet Iki with the Washington Post city. He said he doesn't expect immediate changes. But lift will face more pressure to be profitable and steady as a public company. Big bold investments, like the bike share company bought last summer might no longer fly. And now for some related links. I mentioned lifts own assessment of the risks it faces they're about a dozen and a half of them rather candidate in the companies registration statement, we've linked to that on our website tech site. The information put together a pay walled list of people who are going to make a lot of money today. A thirty thousand dollar investment in two thousand seven is now worth hundred million dollars, not bad. But what does that kind of wealth due to a city when it's not just lift and Uber employees, but also slack post mates Pinterest and Airbnb the New York Times predicted earlier this month that San Francisco will drown in millionaires. I'm Tracey Samuelson. And that's marketplace tech. This is APN. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by Oregon state, university e campus wanna take the fast track to your career and computing, earn your computer science degree one hundred percent online from Oregon state and tap into unlimited career possibilities in any field. Learn more at e campus dot Oregon, state dot EDU slash tech.
Inflation outlook remains just slightly below target
"To recap this macroeconomic moment. Recapping because macroeconomic moments are what we do around these parts things are overall. All right. No less a figure than Jay Powell. The chairman of the Federal Reserve said so just yesterday. But I overall means something's specifically aren't hence the fed saying yesterday, it's thinking it's not going to raise interest rates at all this year. So we are gonna continue today with a bit of Powell parsing something he said, I don't know thirty five forty minutes into his forty five minute Cuna about inflation or more accurately, the lack thereof inflation is currently and persistently a bit below the feds target level of two percent. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson explains the problem with a little too little inflation worrying about too much inflation that hasn't traditionally kept economists up at night says Kevin Jake's he's a finance professor. At Baldwin Wallace university and a former economist at the treasury department, most of us have these preconceived notions of high inflation being problematic. Like it wasn't. If you go back and look at the late nineteen seventies or the early nineteen eighties. When inflation ran into the double digits detainment, the fed had to Jack up interest rates, which put the US economy into a recession. Ho this whole idea that, hey, wait a minute. There can be problems from low inflation that's really out of the traditional realm of what economics and policy makers have looked at over the decades. But to little inflation isn't just a problem. It's a major challenge. One of the major challenges of our time. Really that's fed chair Powell at yesterday's press conference, it gives central banks less room to to respond to downturns this gets a little technical. But lean on in recall that in a recession the fed can cut interest rates to try and stimulate the economy. Kevin Logan chief economist at HSBC. We look too low. Lower the interest rate below the rate of inflation. And that encourages more borrowing didn't people to pay back their debts more easily, and it provides some stimulus to economic activity line low inflation makes that option less powerful. It makes it less effective. That's really what they're concerned about. And to low inflation has this self-reinforcing quality to it when people and companies think inflation over main low, they don't increase prices or wages and that turn keeps inflation low.
U.S. trade deficit hits 10-year high in 2018 on record imports
"Is an observation to be made here as we get going with the big picture economic news of the day. Which is of course, this morning's report from the good people at the Commerce Department that our trade deficit, President Trump's favorite economic indicator. You might remember. Anyway, it grew last year to a record six hundred twenty one billion dollars. That is we imported six hundred twenty one billion dollars more stuff goods and services than we sold abroad. Here. Then is the observation that for all of those hard earned American dollars. We send overseas we get stuff in return their goods and services other countries make that we want so we buy them global trade, the often overlooked point, though, is that the trade deficit isn't some kind of profit and loss statement for the American economy report card, and it's not in and of itself a cause for concern. In fact, the trade gap last year was largely. Driven by a strong domestic economy. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson gets us going. President Trump talks about the trade deficit kind of a lot. We have a trade deficit with almost every country in the we have a massive trade deficit with everybody. But which aging we racked up trillions of dollars in trade deficits, also known as loss we are going to start whittling that down and as fast as possible. So the fact that the trade deficit grew nearly thirteen percent just last year by his own standard. The higher deficit means he's failing. And that we're losing that other countries are taking advantage of us, but Doug Irwin economists. And trade historian at Dartmouth College doesn't actually see it that way, he says it's natural expected even at the trade deficit increased last year in general what we've seen US history is that when we have a booming economy or a growing economy trade deficit tends to either stay the same or grow. Oh, and they tend to strengthen recessions from two thousand eight to two thousand nine the trade deficit fell by nearly half counterintuitive as it may seem the growing trade deficit last year was driven by how strong the US economy was especially relative to big trading partners, like the European Union and China, Catherine man is the global chief economist at Citi group consumers are buying more because they are have higher income because they're strong labor markets, and because they got a little bit of a tax cut that makes them able to consume more. And some of it falls on imports seem thing with business businesses producing because labor markets are tight they got a little bit of a tax cut. So they import intermediate product so that they can produce goods to meet the demand in the domestic economy, and for a communist, this is all very very predictable. They saw this coming a mile away. If the US really wants to reduce the trade deficit it should. Save more says Carl Tannenbaum chief economist at Northern Trust. One of the reasons we have a trade deficit is that on average our consumers spend a lot more of their income than foreigners to saving not as fun as spending. But ten imams says it make households more stable in the long run and reduce the trade deficit. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. Well, let's put a context on this morning's trade gap. Number reminder that it's the total value of goods and services that we buy and sell overseas, Tracy was talking about goods that has actual tangible stuff that blew out our trade deficit. Well, here's the deal. The interesting part is that we've got a trade surplus in services have for decades now actually of which we sell a bunch overseas
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KQED Radio
"On two hundred eighty billion dollars worth of imports everything from solar panels and washing machines to steal an aluminum to about half of everything that we import from China, we've been telling you with some degree of regularity about what those tariffs are doing to companies and entire industries. But what about us consumers, according to new data from the New York fed, the consumer price index, which tracks price changes on a whole basket of goods and services. It's three tenths percent higher now than it would have been without tariffs. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson reports on what that actually looks like at the cash. Register so far price increases haven't been very noticeable at least for consumers, the new tariffs effect. Only about twelve percent of US imports. Researchers at Princeton and the London School of economics have estimated they add about one hundred and twelve dollars in extra costs for the average household each year. Hundred and twelve dollars over a year. That's less than one percent of their annual household expenditures, pretty negligible to be honest. But it'd be another pair of shoes. Probably I'm willing to pay it. If it's American made that's barely a hiccup. You know, what that is? That is a pimple on a bull's spot. That was Greg ward from New York Patricia Becker from Florida and colorful, Howard Thompson from Connecticut. Some people tend to say that this this new tariffs are really terrible and create a huge price increase for people. I wouldn't go that far at least so far Carol bar sack is a post doc at Princeton, one of the researchers that came up with that one hundred twelve dollar cost estimate. He says whether or not consumers notice these price increases, they add up one hundred odd dollars times a hundred and twenty million American households. That's a large cost while the benefit. I mean, you know, the benefits can be debated. But if the benefit the certain save jobs, then the number of jobs that you save with these limited tariffs is also not that large. Alexander geissinger is a policy professor at temple university. One of the things that fascinating is how different it is to think about the aggregate effects that economists clearly worry about. And this individual effects individual effects that might change people's spending behavior or how they might vote in an election. If you think about the impact on an average consumer you really going to get different interpretations, depending on how you think about what they're purchasing in other words, most people might not notice these tariffs unless they have big purchases plans like buying a washing machine or putting solar panels on their house do products that are facing high tariffs, we are due for a washer dryer, and I'm cringing Andrew Smith is a lawyer in Connecticut, she's been following the news of tariffs pretty closely. I'm kicking myself that I didn't do it. Last year. The price of washing machines increased thirteen percent last year, which is giving Smith some sticker shock. She says her current washers old but still working so for now, so. Probably hold off on an upgrade. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. It's been thirty years since the teachers of the Los Angeles unified.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KCRW
"Who's on assignment China's economy has been growing more slowly than expected? We knew that. But we have some surprise news today that Chinese imports and exports both fell in December year-over-year many analysts were actually expecting them to increase. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson covers trade for us and has more miss isn't solely due to the US Chinese trade war. Chinese exports also fell to the EU, Hong Kong and Japan. But some of the drop in exports in December was thanks to trade. Tensions with the US. Logan, right is the director of China research for the rhodium group this weaknesses been caused by some of the exports have been front loaded the head of the anticipation of tariffs being implemented in the United States. If you look at two thousand eighteen as a whole Chinese imports and exports actually increased US purchases from China were up about eleven percent. So the question is how much of the December drop was a one a four part of a longer trend. Mary lovely as an econ, professor. At Syracuse university. How much of that was front loading and how much of that is either twitching of suppliers or moving back to domestic suppliers or just doing without some of these goods, we don't know yet, and like exports Chinese imports also fell in December behind China or other little cars on the train that supply inputs to China's exports. This slowdown in China is going to be transmitted to its main suppliers for the export lovely says that's bad for places like Japan, South Korea, and Germany. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. So one of the things that the government normally does is compile release data is mostly not doing that right now because of the shutdown the longest shutdown ever, by the way, riveting as data may sound. It's actually pretty important. It's literally how we perceive the economy. Marketplace's senior economic contributor Chris Farrell joins us, Chris. Good morning. Can you give us a sense real quick of of what do we not know as a result of this government shutdown? Well, let me be good example. They Commerce Department now it has to critical data generating departments one is the bureau economic analysis and the census bureau, so for example, the census bureau was scheduled to release the November data on what's going on with international trade in goods and services. Well, it's been delayed and the same goes for factory orders and construction spending is the government really the only source for this information. I mean is there not I don't know. On private-sector source for this stuff. There's a lot of good private sector data out there. So for example, if we don't get to retail sales figure people will turn to this private sector group called Johnson Redbook research, and it's a a long term resource on what's happening on retail sales. And here's the thing Sabrina. I think this is the key point the public sector data in the private sector data they're complimentary to each other. So the government statistics. Their foundational in a modern economy. And then what the private sector does is it takes us government generated data, and then add some unique twists some additional data and generate some research that goes out to its customers. It's as data government data supplemented with private data that helps companies and investors make good investment decisions. So basically the longer the shutdown persists the more that some businesses and investors are going to be almost flying blind. That's right. I mean, and they're gonna start making mistakes in the way that I like to think about the government data is is like infrastructure investing. So when you build new roads, and you improve an airport, you private sector productivity grows and companies become more efficient will the same thing is true when it holds with the government data with the government data better decisions get made capital gets allocated, more smartly. It doesn't mean that people don't make mistakes. But the less data we have the more we're going to miss allocate capital, which is just a fancy way of saying we're gonna make some bad investments because of lack of data. Marketplace senior economic contributor Chris Farrell. Thank you as always, thanks a lot. Let's do the numbers..
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KCRW
"You know, a funny thing happened on the way to the next recession. Dana came from the chairman of the White House council of economic advisers. Kevin Hassett is his name. He was talking to CNN this morning from the White House driveway in on it's not going to be just apple I think that they're a heck of a lot of US companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded next year until we get to deal with China without mixing my metaphors too much. You're has its point was that apple might well be the canary in the economic coal mine that the earnings warning the company came out with yesterday after the bell that we told you about an which also helped torpedo stocks today. Oh, by the way, that might just be a leading indicator of the problems a lot of companies are going to be having as the second biggest economy in the world slows down. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson though, on our trade beat was way ahead of mister Hassett. Here's Ford CEO, James Hackett on an earnings call in October. Performance in China clearly has been disappointed. I can assure you the leadership of the company Tiffany CEO asandra bolio in November what we have clearly seen in the quarter. Shift in Chinese puritanism and expanding. Fedex CEO, Fred Smith in December Jonah's economy has weakened due in part to trade disputes as a result. We have lowered our fiscal China's not just an apple problem. But it also shouldn't be blown out of proportion says, Derrick scissors with the American Enterprise Institute. Right. I would say apple. Yeah. The car companies you have the chip company semiconductor companies and after that, it's really scattered. He says Apple's weak sales in China are due to weak consumer demand there and must American firms just aren't that heavily reliant on Chinese consumers wherever China can make something they don't let foreign competition succeed that much guilt. Loria director of research at DA Davidson adds another category that could be hit if Chinese consumers keep a tighter hold on their wallets luxury. Brands tend to have higher share of their sales in China because the. Chinese consumers, the consumer that's often gun wealthy recently. And and therefore is more attractive daas racial brands, still that Tiffany's clip by plant the CEO said Chinese tourists an important segment for them. We're spending less in the Americas and Hong Kong, but so far spending in mainland. China was holding up. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. There is a corporate question to ask alongside Tracy's more macro piece about the apple news. And it goes like this. What does it company do when it single most important product starts, and I stress your starts to run out of steam apple is going to need to replace some of the iphone revenue if told us yesterday, it's losing an increasingly the answer for that replacement is services the app store Apple Pay apple care, all the rest of that stuff. Marketplace's Ben Bradford looked into how much applicants squeeze from its services. Michael Wade is part of Apple's problem. Wade's a professor at Swiss business school. I am d but also a longtime iphone user who no longer rushes to buy the newest model the days of the iphone. Three and I four, and I couldn't wait to to to get the new device, but that's just not the case anymore. Apple cited the Chinese market for declining sales. But also blamed people like Wade who are holding onto their phones longer. Wait says the company's solution is to squeeze more money from each user through services. So have an iphone ipod a lot of my files or on apple servers people like him. They buy music and apps and service contracts from apple the company is famous for pivoting from computers to music to smartphones. Analysts Timothy are curious UBS says apple is making another turn five to ten years down the road. You know services will be much greater component of their revenue than it is today right now it's about fifteen percent compared to sixty percent from iphones are curious says growth and services could come from new and current offerings. Look at Apple Pay for example. I mean, there's huge longer term opportunities. But this would be a big switch business. Professor schlick. Chowdhry at Warton is skeptical. It'll be. A smooth transition apple has always been focused on product that's been their strength. So it's not that easy to shift their focus on their business model, although he notes apple has reinvented itself with services before it built the ipod. Sure. But it was really selling the ninety nine cents song. I'm Ben Bradford for marketplace. Despite all the media attention it gets and yes may culpa on this one apple is not the only corporate story of this Thursday Bristol-Myers Squibb said today, it's going to buy the drug cell, gene. For about seventy four billion dollars, the combined enterprise will have nine products with sales of more than a billion dollars a year. That includes a blockbuster cancer drugs as well. So.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"Along everybody. You know, a funny thing happened on the way to the next recession. Dan came from the chairman of the White House council of economic advisers, Kevin Hassett is his name. He was talking to CNN this morning from the White House driveway in on it's not going to be just apple I think that they're a heck of a lot of US companies that have a lot of sales in China that are gonna be watching their earnings be downgraded next year until we got to deal with China without mixing my metaphors too much. You're has its point was that apple might well be the canary in the economic coal mine that the earnings warning the company came out with yesterday after the bell that we told you about and which also helped torpedo stocks today. Oh, by the way, that might just be a leading indicator of the problems a lot of companies are going to be having as the second biggest economy in the world slows down. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson though, on our trade beat was way ahead of mister Hassett. Here's Ford CEO, James Hackett on an earnings call in October. That our performance in China clearly has been disappointed. I can assure you the leadership of the company Tiffany CEO. Sandra bul- yolo in November what we have clearly seen in the quarter shift the Chinese puritanism and FedEx CEO, Fred Smith in December Ghana's economy has weakened due in part to trade disputes as a result. We have lowered our fiscal China's not just an apple problem. But also shouldn't be blown out of proportion says Derrick scissors with the American Enterprise Institute. Right. I would say, yeah. Apple you the car companies. You have the chip company hemming connector company, and after that, it's really scattered. He says Apple's weak sales in China are due to weak consumer demand there and most American firms just aren't that heavily reliant on Chinese consumers wherever China can make something they don't let foreign competition succeed that much guilt. Loria director of research at. Davidson adds another category that could be hit if Chinese consumers keep a tighter hold on their wallets luxury. Brands tend to have higher share of their sales in China because the Chinese consumers consumer that's often gun wealthy recently. And and therefore is more attracted desparation all brands still that Tiffany's clip by the CEO said Chinese tourists an important segment for them. We're spending less in the Americas and Hong Kong, but so far spending in mainland. China was holding up. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. There is a corporate question to ask alongside traces more macro piece about the apple news. And it goes like this. What does it company do when it single most important product starts, and I stress your starts to run out of steam apple is going to need to replace him. The iphone revenue told us yesterday. It's losing increasingly the answer for that replacement is services the app store Apple Pay apple care, all the rest of that stuff. Marketplace's Ben Bradford looked into how much applicants squeeze from its services. Michael wade. Aid is part of Apple's problem. Wade's a professor at Swiss business school. I am d but also a longtime iphone user who no longer rushes to buy the newest model the days of the iphone three and iphone four. I couldn't wait to to to get the new device, but that's just not the case anymore. Apple cited the Chinese market for declining sales. But also blamed people like Wade who are holding onto their phones longer. Wait says the company's solution is to squeeze more money from each user through services. So I have an iphone ipod a lot of my files or on apple servers people like him. They buy music and apps and service contracts from apple the company is famous for pivoting from computers to music to smartphones. Analysts Timothy are curious UBS says apple is making another turn five or ten years down. The road services will be much greater component of their revenue than it is today right now it's about fifteen percent compared to sixty percent from iphones are Curie says growth and services could come from new. New and current offerings. Look at Apple Pay for example. I mean, there's huge longer term opportunities. But this would be a big switch business. Professor schweik. At Chowdhry at Warton is skeptical. It'll be a smooth transition apple has always been focused on product that's been their strength. So it's not that easy to shift their focus on their business model, although he notes apple has reinvented itself with services before it built the ipod. Sure. But it was really selling the ninety nine cents song. I'm Ben Bradford for marketplace. Despite all the media attention it gets and yes may culpa on this one apple is not the only corporate story of this Thursday prison Myers Squibb said today, it's going to buy the drug cell, gene. For about seventy four billion dollars, the combined enterprise will have nine products was sales them more than a billion dollars a year. That includes a blockbuster cancer drugs as well. So marketplace's Nancy Marshall genzer explains..
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KQED Radio
"If you take care of that the stock price, you know, will find its proper home in the long run. Even if the long run is a little hard to keep in mind. These days in. In New York. I'm Justin how for marketplace. Among the many factors. Weighing on investors are ongoing tensions with China. Reuters reported today that President Trump is considering an executive order that would bar US companies from using equipment made by Chinese telecom. Giants y y and z t the Trump administration has already blocked the US government from using equipment from the two companies over fears. It could be used to spy on Americans technology is just one front in an ongoing trade war with China. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson has been following the ins and outs all year and joins me now for a look back at the year in global trade. And what's to come in two thousand nineteen? Hi, tracy. Hey, amy. So what a year to be a trade reporter? Yeah. It's been pretty quiet. Yeah. So tell us the summary of two thousand eighteen in trade. Okay. So I guess we should probably start with tariffs. Then back in March, President Trump announced those steel and. Aluminum tariffs. They are still largely in place, including four close allies and trading partners like the EU Mexico Canada. This is despite lots of pressure on the Trump administration to lift those tariffs, Canada, and Mexico in particular argue that with the new NAFTA, these countries have agreed to the US MCI, they should get some relief from steel and aluminum tariffs. But so far that's not happened. We can look for more pressure in that area in two thousand nineteen also lingering out there are auto tariffs at the Trump administration has talked about but not put in place. That's also something to watch in two thousand nineteen. Okay. And what about China, which is arguably the real target of the Trump administration in this trade war where things stand there? Yeah. And this is probably the biggest question Mark for early twenty nineteen. So the US has tariffs in place on about two hundred and fifty billion worth of imports from China. That's about half of what we import from China and the Trump administration has threaten. To raise those tariffs and expanding the amount of products covered by them. But that's on hold until March. Second to see if the US and China can negotiate solutions to US concerns, which are pretty pretty broad based concerns that range from our trade deficit with China to you the way the US businesses are treated when doing business in China that they can't get access to Chinese markets that they're forced to share their technology in electrical properties stuff like that Tracy March second isn't that far away. I mean, how much progress do you think the US and China can make before that? Yeah. It was a ninety day truce and these are big issues. So that is a huge question. Mark the trains have signaled some willingness to compromise. But whether it'll be enough to satisfy US complaints or how much flexibility the US might bring to the table. Those are big to be determined questions. And if we step back from tariffs for a second in this bigger picture, we have this intensifying economic. Rivalry between the US and China in terms of technology in terms of high tech and earlier this year, congress passed legislation that beefed up US oversight of foreign investment that wasn't specific to China, but China was definitely front of mind there and also potential export restrictions in terms of what high tech products can be allowed out of the US. So we'll definitely be watching in early twenty nineteen to see how those play out. And if new restrictions are put in place on on high tech exports. You mentioned the new NAFTA deal, which is now known as US MCA. You've got to wonder if that name is ever going to stick. But where does that go in two thousand nineteen right? So that deal was signed by the three countries at the end of November. But now congress needs to pass the legislation that will actually implement it. And Democrats are a question Mark there. They've said they'd like some changes to the environmental and labor provisions in the agreement to make them more enforceable. So we'll be watching to see whether or not. The administration can deliver on those changes. Whether Democrats will hold up a vote, which is something the business community very much wants to see resolved and to complicate all of this President Trump has threatened to pull out of the old NAFTA as a way to try and force congress to pass this new NAFTA. So we'll be watching a see whether he follows through on that. And if so how congress reacts to that kind of pressure. Another question Mark going into the new year. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson. Thanks so much. You're on Wall Street. An update across the board. We'll have details when we do the numbers. six of the partial government shutdown both.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU
"In oakland. I'm Ali would in for Kyra, Saul. It is Thursday December twentieth. So close everyone so close but twenty eighteen is not going quietly into this dark night. It has been another keep you on your toes day in the stock market charts for the major indices as we head to the end of the year down and to the right, but the bond market has been heading in the opposite direction. These last few weeks. Investors are buying for safety. Prices are going up yields are going down. I know you've learned all this from Cairo. Alright the yield on the ten year treasury finished today almost half a percent lower than its recent October peak. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson is here with the what that means when the stock market starts bouncing up and down and down some more investors start looking at the bond market with little heart shaped people's typically when we have Bala Tilleke in the equity markets people will look for safe haven by safe-haven James camp with eagle asset management. Doesn't mean the two thousand ten nNcholas Burke. Novel north at twenty thirteen film of the same name. This safe haven is the bond market. Oftentimes is the ten year treasury, and we're seeing quite a bit of of interest in the lower risk treasury market, relative to more risky markets. As a consequence of a number of factors, including international troubles like Brexit and slower than expected growth in China. US government debt is a safe bet for nervous investors. But when those investors want to buy a lot of bonds, it drives the price up and pushes down. The yield lower yields have all these ripple effects some good for the economy and some bad for the account instant Reinhart is chief economist with Standish Mellon asset management savers. Get a lower return, however mortgage Burs alternately will face we're borrowing costs because most mortgage yields are tied to those bond yields. It's also a good thing for the US government says Maryland Cohen, president of envision capital management. Oh my gosh. Government barring is just up the wazoo. There's no question about that. So this is like a breather lower yields means cheaper borrowing for the government, and it's been doing lots of that pay for recent tax cuts. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. Okay. Quick. I will give you a two dollar Bill. If you can tell me how quantum computing works. I'm just kidding. You really don't need to know the six I certainly do not just know that quantum computing is a big deal big enough for bipartisanship, the house passed a Bill this week by a vote of three hundred and forty eight to eleven that makes speeding up work on quantum computers. A national priority. See super powerful quantum computers could vastly improve cyber security and encrypted communication. But they're not quite there yet. And Meanwhile, China says China it's opening a major quantum laboratory in just a couple of years. Marketplace's Andy Euler tells us why the stakes are so high. So you're probably not going to boot up quantum computer at your house or carrying around a mini version in your pocket anytime soon, but investment in the technology is at an all time high this Bill allocates at least another eighty million dollars for the next four years. How come a big reason is cybersecurity? So it is possible to use a quantum computer to create a secure key that really cannot be broken. That's Michael Kusano with MIT. He says the government imagines using those keys to store national security secrets banks could use them to secure financial data better cryptographic solutions in quantum computing might provide that China has already invested heavily in quantum development. And is that open a major lab in twenty twenty Steve Weber is a professor in the school of information at UC, Berkeley. I think the view is that the Chinese government is going to be pushing this technology than the US government ought to be doing more to be pushing this technology as well. But Weber says thinking about quantum development is an arms race could be the wrong approach is they're going to be some space missed for what we sometimes think of his common human heritage applications like drug discovery and climate modeling and things like that. It's kind of wasteful to have the United States and China doing those kinds of things separately. He also says he wouldn't be surprised if China and the US sought to limit quantum computing proliferation. Not unlike the nuclear race, the nineteen sixties I mean dealer for marketplace. Another big investment today. The Altria group the parent company of tobacco giant Philip Morris said it's spending twelve point eight billion dollars for roughly a one third stake in jewel labs that. Of course is the e cigarette maker that dominates the vaping market here in the US and health advocates are little split on whether vaping is better than cigarettes or just hooking another generation on nicotine. Marketplace's Justin how takes that one Altria cigarette. Brands Marlboro Virginia Slims parliament, they have a side effect..
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"But that's seeming reliance on objections is troubling says Christine McDaniel a researcher at George Mason University. She's added up all this deal. That companies have applied to bring in Tara free and all the objections on those applications. She says the math doesn't work distill producers in the US are claiming to be able to produce and an amount of steel way above. And beyond even what their current production. As McDaniel says if you look at each set of applications and objections one at a time, maybe a US steel or aluminum producer could supply everything that one company wanted to import. But when you zoom out and look at all of the objections accompanies filed it doesn't seem like they could supply them all somebody's are filing objections to hundreds occasionally, even thousands of exemption requests. There are three companies that are falling about half of all the objections in September commerce started leading companies respond to the objections other companies filed on their applications the objectors, then get their own chance to rebut that means getting a decision we'll take longer, but the new system will give companies and commerce a better opportunity to sift through these competing clans still. It's not clear that are keeping track at the firm level. You know, how much each firm is saying that they can produce commerce didn't respond to questions about whether they have a system for that Charles Smith and his firm token may have found their own solution. They worked with. The groups that had objected to their exemption requests to narrow the scope out on certain conditions. So that when the company resubmitted its application, no objections commerce says yet to make a final decision, but I says without any objections. She's feeling optimistic. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. We put a bunch of the documents. We got from the freedom of information act request. We filed with the Commerce Department on these tariffs online. They are pretty interesting. Actually, check them out at marketplace dot org. The link you're looking for says mentioned on air..
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KQED Radio
"The newly negotiated US MCI trade agreement between the US, Canada, and Mexico is thousands of pages long and buried in. It is a provision clearly targeting China. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson covers trade and is here to explain. So it isn't explicitly named in the section that we're talking about. But non market economies are and that is referring to economies where the government control. Roles or manages things that market forces would determine and other economies. So for example, maybe setting or heavily subsidizing certain commodity prices. The new NAFTA says that if one of the three member countries wants to pursue a free trade deal with a non-market economy. It has to notify the other two, and if it does complete a free trade agreement with that non-market economy, the other two countries can leave NAFTA or the new NAFTA in six months and form their own bilateral deal. So this seems pretty clearly about excluding China exactly China for the record wants to be recognized as a market economy, but the US Europe other countries still think China has a really heavy hand in its economy, and that's not fair. And this non-market language was not in the old after it was not. But countries could always give six months notice and leave the agreement as President Trump has threatened to do many times writing in this explicit justification is new and critics think it amounts to giving the us veto power over. Deals that Canada and Mexico might want to pursue a China. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson. Thank you, home prices, and rents are going up wages, especially for low and middle income workers. Have not kept up. Senator Elizabeth Warren democrat of Massachusetts introduced legislation last week to address this housing affordability crisis Mitchell Hartman reports Senator Warren's Bill would pump fifty billion dollars a year into affordable home and apartment construction through local housing agencies and nonprofit developers. This is a market where financing is a big deal. It's a problem. Mark Zandi at Moody's analytics has crunched the numbers on the Bill. We're not talking about homes that builders can make a lot of money on. These are homes that are in urban areas. That are struggling in rural parts of the country. The money would come from racing the estate tax back to pre two thousand nine levels Zandi estimates. The Bill would generate three million additional housing. Units over ten years, but Lynn Fisher at the conservative American Enterprise Institute argues the government has a poor track record creating affordable housing. No matter how much it spends. We really need the private sector. That's homebuilders to have greater rights to build within cities and suburban communities. Warren's Bill tries to tackle this by offering localities financial incentives to change their zoning laws. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. And let's do the numbers. The Dow Jones industrial average is up one hundred and sixty points that is six tenths of a percent. The S and P five hundred is up a half a percent. So as the NASDAQ ten year treasury yield is it three point one percent and Italian bonds are.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"Hiscox insurance, encourage courage in New York, I'm Sabrina short in for David Brancaccio. The newly negotiated US MCA trade agreement between the US, Canada, and Mexico is thousands of pages long and buried in. It is they provisions clearly targeting China. Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson Samuelson covers trait and is here to explain Tracy. So why and how is China getting a shout out in this updated version of NAFTA? So China isn't explicitly named in the section that we're talking about but non market economies are and that is referring to economies where the government controls or manages things that market forces would determine and other economies. So for example, maybe setting or heavily subsidizing certain commodity prices. The new NAFTA says that if one of the three member countries wants to pursue a free trade deal with a non-market economy. It has to notify the other two, and if it does complete a free trade agreement with that non-market economy, the other two countries can leave NAFTA or the new NAFTA in six months and form their own bilateral deal. So this this seems pretty clearly about excluding China exactly China for the record wants to be recognized as a market economy, but the US Europe other countries still think China has really heavy hand in its economy, and that's not fair. And this non-market language was not in the old after it was not. But countries could always give six months, notice and. Leave the agreement as President Trump has threatened to do many times writing in this explicit justification is new and critics think it amounts to giving. The us veto power over deals that Canada and Mexico might wanna pursue China. Marketplace's Tracey Tracey Samuelson. Thank you, Amazon as we've heard we'll pay three hundred and fifty thousand of its workers at least fifteen dollars an hour large companies. And Amazon is worth a trillion dollars have always had to make choices about how they give back and how they invest in themselves Amazon, maybe doing both as marketplace's Erica barest reports from W A in Pittsburgh workers who get paid more have more to spend CB Bhattacharya business professor at the university of Pittsburgh says Amazon is probably increasing pay because it's the smart thing to do business wise. And but I'm sure they understand that, you know, this is kind of the right time to implement such a policy that's because we have a tight labor market and Amazon's been under pressure to raise wages, plus it looks good. For the company like in nineteen fourteen. When Henry Ford started paying workers, a then unheard of five dollars a day. It got Ford. Great press kept workers on the assembly line. And they were able to buy the cars they made which made Ford richer these days corporations tend to give back through philanthropy. John four runs the institute for corporate responsibility at George Washington University, and you could see companies making a choice that it is better for the company to move some of that money to their workers than it is to put it in some foundation fund, and then help people who may not be as tied to the company or tied to the company's success amick Paris for marketplace. And let's do the numbers.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Perspective, the medals tariffs. Took about a billion dollars of profit from us. Which is we source most of that in the US today. Anyways, the metal tariffs, of course, are the Trump administration steel and aluminum tariffs that got this whole import tax ball rolling this past spring, the interesting bit of what hack it said is that this is where the tariff story veers firmly into the that is the way they're supposed to work lane. Marketplace's run out of sago has that one. When the Trump administration slapped a twenty five percent tariff on Steagall ship to the US in June. The idea was we raise the price of foreign steel and that'll force companies that need the raw material to buy domestic instead John zella runs. The trade group global automakers he says, we forgot one thing about tariffs. US steel producers because they're protected now from foreign competition have raised their prices almost to the same level of the tariffs. Domestic steel companies are seeing a boost to their bottom lines. One of the biggest US steel projects record revenue grow. By the end of this year, but a much larger group is losing out American and foreign companies that manufacturer in the US and firms that export from this country. But our exports to other countries around the world have now gotten more expensive because other countries are retaliating by imposing tariffs of their own on goods exported from the US automakers face some stiff headwinds right now car sales are down just as they say they need to maximize profits to pay for newer, safer cars and compete technologically at chemist vice president of industry at the research firm auto Pacific, whether you're whether you're Honda. This is bad news. No matter who you are. He says many car companies are eating up the higher still prices for now. But pretty soon he says they'll hit consumers to I'm Renata Saco for marketplace on that last bit from Rinat, by the way about tariffs eventually affecting consumers, so too will the feds steady raising of interest rates and soon to we put together an explainer of where in your. Wallet. Those interest rates might hit ya. It's at marketplace dot ORG. Nafta is still although it's faded from the headlines at Ted it is still being renegotiated Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he is going to stay in talks as long as it takes to get a deal. That is good for Canada. President Trump lead his press conference afternoon talking about NAFTA, and what a bad deal it has been for the United States has he's been saying for a number of years now the Trump administration. In fact, says Sunday is the deadline. Gotta have US-Canadian agreement by Sunday or Ottawa might be left behind. Why Sunday you ask me to seems? There's a press on to get a deal done before. Mexico's current president leaves office December the first and also a bunch of procedural things that have to happen before pain is put to paper, but how firm marketplace's Tracey Samuelson asks is that Sunday deadline, really US. Trade Representative Robert lighthizer warned yesterday that if an updated NAFTA wasn't signed by the current Mexican president we'd have to start a new negotiation with the new president. I was pretty puzzled why he said that actually you pneumonic is a visiting scholar at the Cato Institute who's been following. These negotiations everyone, I know on the next confide and people who follow politics have said, this is not a problem for Mexico that they're not going to reopen negotiations. Monica says signing the deal would be a feather in the cap of outgoing president Enrico opinion and something the incoming president would rather not have to take on, sir. Changing administrations might introduce a little bit of uncertainty says Gustavo Flora's Massias at Cornell University, but president-elect Andreas manual Lopez. Over door has signaled support for overhauling NAFTA anti had his own negotiator in on the talks. I think of this deadline is missed a new administration would probably continue along the same lines. Plus he says getting a deal done now would have political benefits for the Trump administration to be able to craft the narrative for the November elections midterm elections. President Trump has actually follow through on an important campaign promise. So this deadline might be more motivational than drop. Dead. Says Issoire preside with the Peterson institute for international economics somewhat. Artificial deadline may have been contrived by the Trump administration. That's the way of putting greater pressure on Canada to come to the table and sign a deal. It includes all three countries Canada might not find the deadline as motivating as Washington would like so far. It's been insisting a deal can't be hurried. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. I'm going to go back to the Powell well one more time here by way of explaining why Wall Street was slightly displeased with what the fed did today. It's all about one word seriously one word of the two hundred and fifty or so in the statement that the fed issued after its meeting that word is accommodated, which is fed speak for low interest rates. Here's chair Powell one last time readers of the FOMC statement likely noted that the committee dropped a sentence that indicated that. Stance of monetary policy remains accommodative this change does not signal any change in the likely passive policy. Instead, it is a sign that policy is proceeding in line with our expectations or as chair Yellen used to say, we're going to let the data tell us what do President Trump in fact said today at that presser I mentioned that the fed raised interest rates because the economy is doing so well, which is not wrong. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. Okay to housing.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on Marketplace All-in-One
"We're having pastries for marketplace in New York. I'm Tracey Samuelson in for David Brancaccio four point, one percent. That's how fast the economy grew in the second quarter according to the Commerce Department. And yeah, we own our nursery around here. So there are pastries for GDP day. This is a strong number almost double last quarter. A major driver of that was consumer spending which grew four percent marketplace's. Andy, Euler looks at this important component of GDP whether we buy stuff largely depends on how much money we have and what we think our future incomes going to be up until the recession, economists, traditionally thought of consumer spending as the volatile part of the economy is the consumer feeling good today, Austin goolsbee teaches economics at the university of Chicago and was an economic adviser in the Obama administration. He says over the past few years, consumer spending has become very predictable consumer spending is sort of the slow, steady race, win. Here, you know, consumer spending's kinda turned itself into the tortoise in the race. Consumers are confident because they have jobs, unemployment is at near record lows. But what about that trade war, Bob Murphy and economics professor at Boston College says, he actually doesn't think that influences when everyday Americans buy stuff. I don't know if they make the connection that directly that things are likely to cost them more down the road, and therefore they rush out and buy today because prices haven't risen dramatically. The of make things is higher, but companies are largely taking the brunt of that pain at least for now. I mean, Euler for marketplace, President Trump speaking about GDP growth. This morning said, we're going to go a lot higher than four point one percent going forward. But most economists and analysts agreed. This level of growth is unique to this quarter and won't be quite this high in the future. We learned more yesterday about the Trump administration's closely watched trade policy from none other than Robert lighthizer. The US trade Representative lighthizer testified before a Senate subcommittee and covered a lot of ground. The beginning of talks between the US and the EU the status of NAFTA negotiations, China marketplace's Renata sago as fault this for us. So we're not a what did we learn from the three hours or so of testimony. This session was about two things who the president's trade deals are meant to help and win. Those trade deals will become concrete. Some lawmakers asked about the emergency aid package for farmers. Why just them and not small businesses hit by terrorists to other lawmakers s about the very status of the US trade deficit, whether the eight hundred billion dollar deficit that President Trump often refers to holds up. If you account for US services, we sell to other countries. Lighthizer said, yes, there is a surplus of services with some countries, but overall clearly. A very, very. Negative dried situation, but it. But if you don't accept that everything we're doing is not. It doesn't make sense. So he added that. The idea is to really focus on bilateral agreements because according to the Trump administration, they give the US more leverage. So did lighthizer offer any new information about those talks between the US and the EU from earlier this week? He did. He said that the whole agricultural industry is a key component to these talks, but it doesn't really seem like e you officials are on the same page. They said, is just soybeans and beef. What about negotiations with NAFTA or China with China, he said that's going to take some time, and he justified that by emphasizing the weight of what the White House says China's done. They're taking advantage of an open US economy. They're using state capitalism, and they're taking US jobs and US. Well. Lighthizer said, a NAFTA deal is going to be finalized soon, but that's been trade officials response for months. Now, marketplace's we're not a sago. Thanks sticking with trade. The Senate yesterday approved a Bill without debate that would cut imp- cut tariffs on some imports. Nearly half of those items are produced in China according to avoid analysis. Not everyone gets a chance to study the economy in school anyway, who doesn't need a brush up marketplace helps you continue your education in a way that we hope is smart accessible and hopefully even a bit fund, your donation is not only an investment in your own learning, but also in helping us make more.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on KQED Radio
"The world trade organization is what we're talking about here and handles commercial disputes between and among its one hundred sixty four member nations marketplace's tracey samuelson explains how the wto is supposed to work joining the wto is optional for countries but once you're in you got to follow its rules on trade and if you think a trading partner is breaking those rules you agree to hash it out at the wto a panel of three judges here's your case issues a ruling there's also an appeals process chad bound with the peterson institute says the us has been involved in about forty percent of all wto disputes and it's primarily because the us is just such a large trading economy has so much international trade with lots and lots of countries around the world that there's lots of things to potentially fight about even so this is a system that's worked pretty well for the us says petrosa avoid you teaches wto law at columbia university and recently looked at all disputes in the history of the wto and the us has the highest winning percentage the us is the number one winning complaining about the wto when cases are brought against the us we lose about the same amount as everybody else that record might sound pretty good like a system the us could get behind in fact it's a system the us help built gregory shaffer with the university of california irvine school of law there's another view on that which is the us has lost some politically sensitive cases against china which has upset those affected by those losses also politically sensitive president trump's new tariffs on steel and aluminum which are likely to be challenged at the wto how that case is decided and how the president reacts could have big implications for the global trading system i'm tracey samuelson for marketplace.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"The world trade organization is while we're talking about here at handles commercial disputes between and among its one hundred sixty four member nations marketplace's tracey samuelson explains how the wto is supposed to work joining the wto is optional for countries but once you're in you gotta follow its rules on trade and if you think trading partner is breaking those rules you agree to hash it out at the wto a panel of three judges here's your case issues a ruling there's also an appeals process chad bound with the peterson institute says the us has been involved in about forty percent of all wto disputes and it's primarily because the us is just such a large trading economy has so much international trade with lots and lots countries around the world that there's lots of things to potentially fight about even so this is a system that's worked pretty well for the us says petro's nevada's he teaches wto la at columbia university and recently looked at all disputes in the history of the wto and the us has the highest winning percentage the us is the number one winning complaining about the wto when cases are brought against the us we lose about the same amount as everybody else that record might some pretty good like a system the us could get behind in fact it's a system the us help build gregory shaffer with the university of california irvine school of law there's another view on that which is the us has lost some politically sensitive cases against china which has upset those affected by those losses also politically sensitive president trump's new tariffs on steel and aluminum which are likely to be challenged the wto how that case is decided and how the president reacts could have big implications for the global trading system i'm tracey samuelson for marketplace coming up i really wish i was able to help the american people understand that what we're doing wasn't for wall street it was for them a big hurdle back then a.
"tracey samuelson" Discussed on Marketplace All-in-One
"Olympic it suspended its ceo alexander knicks is his name after a series of video surfaced showing him endorsing shall we say unsavory ways to influence foreign elections right moving on we are probably less than a week away from the tariff tit for tat really getting going president trump's import duties on steel and aluminum take affect on friday the europeans have already drawn up their list of retaliatory items there is serious talk at the white house of extra tariffs on chinese products and counter threats to take the united states to court in a manner of speaking the world trade organization is while we're talking about here in handles commercial disputes between and among its one hundred sixty four member nations marketplace's tracey samuelson explains how the wto is supposed to work joining the wto is optional for countries but once you're in you've got to follow its rules on trade and if you think a trading partner is breaking those rules you agree to hash it out at the wto panel of three judges here's your case issues of ruling there's also an appeals process chad bound with the peterson institute says the us has been involved in about four eighty percent of all wto disputes and it's primarily because the us is just such a large trading economy has so much international trade with lots and lots of countries around the world that there's lots of things to potentially fight about even so this is a system that's worked pretty well for the us says petuous mavericks he teaches wto at columbia university and recently looked at all disputes in the history of the wto and the us has the highest winning percentage the us is the number one weaning complaining about team that w deal when cases are brought against the us we lose about the same amount as everybody else that record might sound pretty good like a system the us could get behind in fact it's a system the us helped built gregory shaffer with the university of california irvine school of law there's another view on that which is the us has lost some politically sensitive cases against china which has upset those affected by those losses also politically sensitive president trump's new tariffs on steel.