15 Burst results for "Torsten Slock"

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:19 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This significant amount of volatility instruments we had in March but has come with a number of side effects and one side effect is exactly this issue with that the lack of revenue when the doors closed in corporate America and there were no dollars coming into the bottom line companies turn around through borrowing markets and they see the thought of pouring in corporate I. G. and high yield and the commercial paper market and that was essentially magnifying and all that we already have going into the virus so you're absolutely right this is increasing the shelf company this is not only you and that is also in Germany France UK around the world the issue of course is that we will begin to look somewhat similar to Japan in the nineteen nineties we also had very high debt levels in the corporate sector and this is the problem down the road that can companies survive the significant amount of debt load the significant amount of leverage that we now have that being magnified exhilarated upwards because all the response from that there is a there's an irony baked in here towards dinner or the more that asset prices are kept up in these companies are kept afloat with respect to higher debt loads the more people can have confidence in investing in these even though growth is slowing do you expect that paradigm to continue for the zombies to be kept alive and not allowed to go bankrupt read full stop to Tom's point allowing asset prices to continue to climb despite the lack of growth rightly the I mean if you think about the fed's response to that one has a trick up his sleeve in the shale companies are some bees or they don't have enough revenue to pay for the interest payment that was triggered by low interest rates and now not only do we again a low interest rate but we also have that that actually buying IG and buying gold angels and what does that mean that means that they have also it's a device even further mall credit extension and more leverage increased in the corporate sector and of course your non financial support taking them and they're all resolved the problem with the lack of revenue by adding on more debt so someone ironically we had exactly as John just said we've been maybe some trade offs in the short run we stabilizing things but we still have this very important problem that day we need to look at the fundamental structure of the corporate sector and again the comparisons with Japan well it was all about inflation and that goes all to the debate but now they're more parallels with Japan that are coming into the radar screen that becomes very important for investors to you by thinking about it all started they have to be all this is docked in the U. S. I need to go up all other very important sector differences in terms of this is leverage increase that we have seen in contact with another another Austin this is not capitalism we should not pretend it is what is this so I would say I know this might sound very academic but I would say that is interfering with the process of creative destruction I mean greater destruction is of calls that some companies go under some companies open up everything on a normal day about one thousand six hundred companies in the U. S. that go out of business and yet one thousand six other companies that go out of business every day in the U. S. now that artificially IG spreads have been narrowed and although credit spreads have been out of the cost of capital have been lowered which makes complete sense from a business perspective this is beginning to open up a lot of questions what does this mean for the brothers upgraded instructions of companies give MPs the starting and companies going under and what does that mean and how we think about how dynamic the U. S. economy not only is this already the most dynamic economy in the world is able to generate a lot of growth and image ideas and products and ways of being much more productive than other countries but the problem is here that now well how is that process actually looking going forward if you suddenly have a share and a rising share of the corporate sector that is just no longer able to do those significant increase in advances innovations and productivity that we have been so used to call the agency tells the fascinating conversation one but we are going to have to continue for a long time to come Torsten Slok that of Deutsche bank's home K. just remarkable conversation creative destruction transformation these are the kind of things do you need to see happen the issue with this is that this was a pandemic and I think the way the federal reserve has approached it is the belief that no one deserves to go Wanda because no one could have seen this coming now not my personal view what is the right or wrong the price for that just seemingly is the approach from policy makers worldwide some go there to claim torture bank chart did everybody put all the notes zerohedge featured in a couple days ago designed for cation of US economy's extraordinary John all this comes down to is a new kind of capitalism I love your short question there well then what is this we don't know John yeah what this form of modern capitalism is I'm not even sure they see whether we can call this modern capitalism I have no idea what we should be killed in this city has to come my question is I honestly we have a situation where people who own assets are seeing price gains where are people who work at these companies that are being kept alive with more debt are keeping their jobs who's going to push back long term it's theoretical that it prevents the sort of creative destruction that allows the dynamism into society but right now in the here and now it doesn't seem like there is any political will to push back against the on goings on vacation quite clearly everyone's accepting the short term stability that's the trade off that's the sacrifice you sacrifice high long term growth and productivity the short term stability and you have to be willing to accept a vicious contraction I vicious amount of bankruptcies and Tom that for me is the ready ready difficult decision and the more you put off a global economies developed economies have been putting that off now for a long long time the more you put that off in an economy heavily financial lies like this one I don't think you can ever make that decision anymore time unless that decision is made for you but I'll go with you John but to me it's what Bob prince talked about from Bridgewater Davos in what Mr daily was underscored the last few days is this idea of this massive gloom idea of a lost decade and the the optimist push backs they say who says who Kevin I'm next on this program we wanna talk about the last decade we'll talk about the re opening this economy in New York City looking forward to a weekly catch up with The New York lieutenant governor Kathy Hochul that is coming up next this is pulling back.

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:44 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Perpetuation of zombie companies that basically would have failed if it hadn't been for the federal reserve policies that that is leading to a crimping of innovation that you're seeing in real time so what is really interesting is that at the same time as all the negative trends that you've been talking about having going on in the nation actually has continued we have some of the biggest flows to venture in the last year or two and that has continued so while we do have this issue in the more traditional economy news as you mentioned and then the other side of the is the mid size companies so let's say you had a we have close to forty percent off our economy now is in the Medicare companies similarly if you look globally in China for example that was more than sixty percent you have that going on at the same time as a lot of new companies are getting worn and a lot in health education and clean energy financial inclusion all of those were really in more innovative small companies that have actually done quite well over the last few months especially after the best of us always fantastic catch WS and I thank you very much for joining us joining us from Rock Creek group in your market this morning good morning to all equity futures roll together down sixty I only S. and P. five hundred enough by two point one six percent the data will be absolutely K. this morning at eight thirty eastern seven around about I'd say call it nineteen minutes from now we will have initial jobless claims and continuing claims as well they stated Tom follows a blow out payroll support the court a lot of people very off guard and what we're looking for in a round about twenty minutes is alpha nation potentially let's see if we get any validation of that optimism that we field on Friday either way but I I've been completely remiss on this John you're absolutely right this is a huge deal folks coming out here at eight thirty I'm gonna call it nineteen minutes as well John the question that I did not get the doctor bash for son these over arching this free lunch of low interest rates for ever is what does it do to the actuarial assumption I mean I'm never going to retire I get that that's what the math says but John I I really wonder how we set up a sub four percent pension assumption and what that does to investment I I honestly I never framed it I never thought of it and yet John it's here right now you gonna struggle and it's a bigger struggle in Europe at the moment and this is only one of the big issues of the law right policies on the other issue we have to talk about is the future of capitalism as well we've discussed this many many times the fed has to do what I have to do it we understand that this is not a criticism of the fed's response post site the other side to make sure that we did not fall off the cliff but you can also acknowledge there will be consequences and not just on the things that you describe Tom but also in capitalism more generally Jim bianco bianco research was brilliant on this in the last twenty four hours the underpinnings of capitalism what happens if you don't allow the capital to flow away from the bad businesses and so the more productive ones what is that economy look like in the future on I know Lisa was far to putting out a Torsten Slok charred on zombie companies in your really wonder if John we can get to a point where it's almost zombie nations if we don't clear out those markets John we'll talk about a whole lot more through the morning from New York City this morning good morning to all along side Tom Kean.

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

12:33 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Nine Jonathan ferro together with Lisa Abramowicz what a morning some key to stop the Sime accounts with equity futures absolutely ripping higher this Tuesday no question about it up to down twenty five thousand it's something there's so many have doubted just moments ago Jon Ben Laidler who's been a huge significant bull way way below here just republish and reaffirmed equity prices higher in the link is there to this account to me and how bad it is is just never been wider apart futures higher this morning and John interest rates of up as well yeah he to lower the front ends on a big day for what is happening in Germany that's been the story of the last several weeks we'll talk about that a little bit later in the program places not just around in the United States as a rally across the continent in Europe today yeah particularly in Italy were you seeing yields actually come and further there than in Germany in this points to what I'm looking at this week which is tomorrow European Commission will officially propose that five hundred billion euro plan of a rescue financing very interesting to see what type of push back and concessions were put in there also when I'm watching this week Thursday the national people's Congress of China are going to be voting on that controversial national security law for Hong Kong also on Thursday and this is going to be important the initial U. S. jobless claims I'm watching John how much we see that number come down how much these jobs have become permanent losses at a time of re opening which we're seeing right now more of the data expected through the week and it's on offense because well I think we round out the week which Chapman pal so we can stop this program on place the site with Torsten Slok chief economist a retort to bank Tolson has my question for you we just had a long weekend in the United States and see many pictures of many states getting back to normal quite quickly I know you've touched on this issue is the fate of the global economy still depend on getting a vaccine absolutely I mean if we do get a backseat it would change everything it would change the whole outlook it would change the outlook for market it would change the outlook for the global economy unfortunately looks alike that is not the case so for now we're back to watching the re opening with back to watching the fundamentals and the pictures Jemele getting better it is a slow crawl out we are in awe of you standing at the bottom of the canyon and we're looking up but it looks very clearly like in any news of re opening and the news generally speaking the economic data I didn't think any slow research that that is certainly something that the market to be paying attention to toast in many countries already have gone through the re opening experience several weeks perhaps several months in some places ahead of what we're seeing here the United States what if you learned so far about that experience yes the number of countries in particular in Europe that have already reopened at what has been surprising is that there we've had acted it none of the data including some of the basic data on a credit card and bank data use I think it is shown that the consumers are more willing to call it quits you and then what I would have expected so what about the specter of the answer to a question is this health considerations and which we are debating all the time they need something much weaker consumer spending to meet all the generations are going to stay home alone calls that we have exceeded what does it mean for younger generations we might just have lost a lot of jobs I mean there could be some rays of hope in the day that we begin to see if we can also see that at all the data coming out this week most important perhaps in the competent indicated that beginning to show some signs of rebounding well Deutsche Bank has really led with the grimness on GDP with what we're seeing and what the markets are expecting are you in Peter Hooper metals that in your team are you willing to start nudging the GDP gloom back from the precipice no we are still very good movie yeah I mean I think there are many comparisons yeah when you think about the outlook a we are definitely more groovy than the consensus and the question is what do you compare your podcast with and we certainly because looking at a situation where things look gradually better than they did just a few weeks ago a lot of reasons to be worried why this is going to be ready to be weak recovery yet we do not expect by any means a V. shaped recovery we do expect that it will take quite some time both the consumption spending also caffeic spending because of all the health issues and associated things that come along with buying things might be weaker so we definitely still in the gloomy camp but that that's not an argument for saying that markets should be trading differently from where they are that's an argument for saying that you grow this going to take quite some time people we catch up and get back to where we were in jeopardy and perhaps one reason why markets are trading where they are is because of the fiscal response that we've seen around the world you tabulated at nine trillion dollars which makes me wonder what's been the most effective fiscal stimulus or physical rescue so far yeah this is a really good question Lisa so when you think about the design of the vehicle packages that actually did put quite dramatically across countries the US has to sign the package by focusing on things that would go directly to GDP so not only the twelve hundred dollar check that wasn't a household how close it is close out a few weeks ago and that goes directly to the people that make this conflict that has a very different fiscal multiplier on G. P. let's into say a zone all zones guaranteed I think he alone for someone but if they don't default double bass you have zero impact on you to be at least a reckoning so that's all the differences to your question is I have been very important in this side of the bag is in the U. S. the package the sign that had the biggest impact I regular GP whereas Europe the sided with quick up by alone it guarantees and and compensation schemes to instead focus on providing guaranteed to take the next that basically hit consumers also the company's may never jump into so from that perspective from the GDP forecasting angle it does become quite important what the design of the physical packages photos than in the short term yes what about the longer term this one approach help GDP in the short term does the other approach have laid the foundation for more durable sustainable recovery once we start to re open exactly that's the whole point exactly I completely agree with that so you're not sending a check of twelve hundred dollars to everyone will be very helpful here and now and that would certainly help if you will fill up some of the holes that we have in front of us and just behind us in terms of most revenue in lost income for corporates and puzzles further out if the unemployment rate has gone up a lot more in the U. S. than it has in Europe you would expect that consumers have been to the stop being penny pinching and consumers have been beginning to look better in Europe than they do in the U. S. because on a par rate did not go up as much in the European case so from that perspective I think exactly what you're saying is correct they need that some parts of the fiscal solutions in the U. S. security immediately or if the European solution may be more helpful in the medium term and have we talking about more like three point five portals out yeah we welcome all which I was in time keeper excited about our simulcast is John starting to get put out in New York City have my oldest age I've really been sequestered and John my observation on the Upper West Side of Avenue is John we've got to get open and you wonder John is the more what's going to happen next I think the biggest U. furmay time over the weekend was saying how quickly things reacted to how quickly people got back to normal I was surprised by that that you re open some prices in certain states and they were packed and I just wonder that's the conversations we stand at this week's on whether we've underestimated just how people respond to re opening the outside these places that we live in these bubbles like New York City but a lot of people will get back to normal pretty quickly well off to see about that I mean I you know I look at back to normal but much on the markets are just extraordinary here Dow twenty five thousand this quickly John remarkable absolutely remarkable told the let's talk about it what this market is looking for and I go back to how we started this conversation over the weekend we saw so many prices absolutely packed underpinning any full cost is a pretty firm assumption about how people respond to the re opening in months to come what is your base case to Austin absolutely that's why I think that that one very important factor here is a look at the high frequency data base data you are seeing more people it is from a very low base you're seeing people doing restaurant buildings around the country this is also happening globally is not on the U. S. we all from basically zero but the OpenTable data has certainly shown that we're listing all but in some cases we acted out of food so that way roughly sixty percent down from where we went paper and that may still sound like a lot but it's still quite an improvement relative to what we were of course just a few weeks ago and we're seeing that you're saying how many people flying around the country that has also been going up you even seeing in some of the drug prescriptions data which is weekly also we got to see every pound an improvement that you need to go back through the local pharmacy to pick up their prescription drugs relative to getting it through the mail online so that the number of educated we are watching for exactly trying to pick up the speed and whether this will be your L. shaped all this will shape and that we've been talking about so in short yeah it's correct that we still all agree that this will probably be weak but then some of the data is improving and then and then what we would expect that some of these leaves low about that net map I think we did it is really the only way to go to S. S. going call on whether the speed will be slow all right with the with the fast yeah twice in just real quick here I'm wondering there are estimates that of the twenty one million jobs lost in March and April about half are not coming back does that equation change if the re opening a successful yeah that because really importantly the because the argument and what the academic look at the impressive because again the last few weeks including agreements they thought is to say well this is not only an issue about it not us going up much to restaurants and flying and doing the things that that we might not do but health reasons that does an underlying reallocation of labour going on where you want to open an basis with the some industries the intensity sovereignty more job losses health considerations because if there is no soldier that then things you might have missed a bit less of a need for employment in a number of sectors in the economy and that we had a patient might be playing a very important role here that it's just going to take time to relocate those workers that may not come back to restaurants to a social distancing and occupations but they need to be rescheduled according to other sectors so that we can see growth rate elsewhere in the economy to compensate for the significant job because we have seen so in short this relocation effect is that it's a bit of an unknown but the at this point and we do worry that the global relocation workers because of the need to help considerations that might potentially become a very important goals over the coming quarters and that might imply that for that job growth is going to be somewhat weaker for quite some time does the sock I thought you bank Tolson always fantastic catch up with you send out best for the team when you told the stock that a chief economist of Deutsche bank when you get on this economy this market right now fifty six points in the S. and P. five hundred high by one point nine percent a little bit later this morning now some tricks of the nasdaq the president joined just a little bit later the staff from New York this morning good morning she will this is Bloomberg surveillance live on Bloomberg TV Bloomberg radio now with the latest.

Jonathan ferro Lisa Abramowicz Jon Ben
"torsten slok" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

90.3 KAZU

03:14 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

"And you still need a marketing plan that makes sense the customer part is not looking good right now at all again clothing sales down by seventy nine percent now those numbers are from April when the country was on full lockdown so Craig rally at the consulting firm Korn ferry says the drop in sales is not surprising and probably not long term it's hard to make any sales in the stores are open the real question will be how fast does read during his comeback as stores are beginning to open up are consumers ready to get out do they feel safe until that's done they are going to go shopping also how much has the world changed now Randy Allen teaches management at Cornell are more people going to work at home that's going to have an impact particularly on a pair all the kinds of apparel who the customers are the frequency with which people are going to buy etcetera there's a lot we don't know but she says the retailers that do succeed it will have to figure out what kind of clothing people want to buy now a Merrill Segarra for marketplace in our most recent marketplace Edison research poll more than forty percent of respondents told us that they would have a hard time managing an unexpected expense of two hundred and fifty dollars the savings situation in this country is pretty dire so with tens of millions of Americans out of work and even more scene cuts and their hours and wages many of them are tapping into their retirement accounts for basic needs marketplace's Sabri Benatar has more Congress waived some of the penalties for withdrawing early from retirement accounts and some people are going for it people are definitely drawing Matt Schultz is chief credit analyst at lending tree they recently surveyed twelve hundred people with retirement savings accounts thirty percent of them said they had withdrawn funds from that account within the last couple of months and another twenty percent said they would do so so dell the investments which manages retirement accounts for twenty three million people says it's only seen about three hundred and seventy three thousand people take a withdrawal Meghan Murphy is a senior vice president it represents about one and a half percent of the people who we record keep retirement plans for she says almost nine percent of people have decreased their contributions that's almost double the number a year ago fidelity is a market place under writer by the way vanguard says it its customers were withdrawing at about the same rate as last year whatever the exact number of people withdrawing from the retirement accounts early David John expects it to rise John is a senior policy advisor at A. A. R. P. many people have been using more liquid forms of savings to get through this month now they're going to start to turn to retirement accounts Americans weren't doing a great job saving for retirement or saving period even before corona virus Torsten Slok is chief economist at Deutsche Bank half of the population did not have a savings account in two thousand nineteen and did not have money for a rainy day people who have to make withdrawals are lower contributions may leave this downturn even less prepared for retirement lending tree says the average withdrawal in its survey was sixty eight hundred dollars over thirty years at five percent interest.

"torsten slok" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

04:23 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Line between retail sales and state revenues unfortunately for those state and municipalities and not a lot of hope their retail sales numbers for the month of April came out this morning they fell by more than sixteen percent over all from the previous month and for clothing retail specifically they were down by seventy nine percent that does not exactly bode well for the clothing companies like J. crew and Neiman Marcus that are filing for chapter eleven bankruptcy and hoping to come out the other side market place's Merrill segera reports you know the kind of bankruptcy were company sells all its staff and closes its doors forever that's not generally how chapter eleven bankruptcy is supposed to go when a company files for chapter eleven it's trying to come up with a plan to save the business for a retailer that usually means closing unprofitable stores cutting staff getting some debt forgiven so when you come out you're a leaner and meaner company that when you went in Larry Katz is a business bankruptcy lawyer at Hirschler Fleischer the thing is if you do come out of bankruptcy leaner and meaner you still need to have a product that people are interested in purchasing you still need customers and you still need a marketing plan that makes sense the customer part is not looking good right now at all again clothing sales down by seventy nine percent now those numbers are from April when the country was on full lockdown so Craig rally at the consulting firm Korn ferry says the drop in sales is not surprising probably not long term it's hard to make any sales in the stores are open the real you will be how fast does record revenues come back as stores are beginning to open up are consumers ready to get out do I feel safe until that's done they are going to go shopping also how much has the world changed now Randy Allen teaches management at Cornell are more people going to work at home that's going to have an impact particularly on a pair all the kinds of apparel who the customers are the frequency with which people are going to buy it Sarah there's a lot we don't know but she says the retailers that do succeed it will have to figure out what kind of clothing people want to buy now el Segarra for marketplace in our recent marketplace Edison research poll more than forty percent of respondents told us that they would have a hard time managing an unexpected expense of two hundred and fifty dollars the savings situation in this country is pretty dire so with tens of millions of Americans out of work and even more scene cuts and their hours and wages many of them are tapping into their retirement accounts for basic needs marketplace's Sabri banister has more on that Congress waived some of the penalties for withdrawing early from retirement accounts and some people are going for it people are definitely drawing Matt Schultz is chief credit analyst at lending tree they recently surveyed twelve hundred people with retirement savings accounts thirty percent of them said they had withdrawn funds from that account within the last couple of months and another twenty percent said they would do so so dell the investments which manages retirement accounts for twenty three million people says it's only seen about three hundred and seventy three thousand people take a withdrawal Meghan Murphy is a senior vice president it represents about one and a half percent of the people who we record keep retirement plans for she says almost nine percent of people have decreased their contributions that's almost double the number a year ago fidelity is a market place under writer by the way vanguard says its customers were withdrawing at about the same rate as last year whatever the exact number of people withdrawing from the retirement accounts early David John expects it to rise John is a senior policy advisor at A. A. R. P. many people have been using more liquid forms of savings to get through this month now they're going to start to turn to retirement accounts Americans weren't doing a great job saving for retirement or saving period even before coronavirus Torsten Slok is chief economist at Deutsche Bank half of the population did not have a savings account in two thousand nineteen and did not have I have money for a rainy day people who have to make withdrawals are lower contributions may leave this downturn even less prepared for retirement lending tree says the average withdrawal in that survey was sixty eight hundred dollars over thirty years at.

"torsten slok" Discussed on KCRW

KCRW

02:44 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on KCRW

"Are beginning to open up are consumers ready to get out do they feel safe until less than they are going to go shopping also how much has the world changed now Randy Allen teaches management at Cornell are more people going to work at home that's going to have an impact particularly on a pair all the kinds of apparel who the customers are the frequency with which people are going to buy etcetera there's a lot we don't know but she says the retailers that do succeed it will have to figure out what kind of clothing people want to buy now el Segarra for marketplace in our recent marketplace Edison research poll more than forty percent of respondents told us that they would have a hard time managing an unexpected expense of two hundred and fifty dollars the savings situation in this country is pretty dire so with tens of millions of Americans out of work and even more scene cuts and their hours and wages many of them are tapping into their retirement accounts for basic needs marketplace's Sabri Benatar has more on that Congress waived some of the penalties for withdrawing early from retirement accounts and some people are going for it people are definitely worth drawing Matt Schultz is chief credit analyst at lending tree they recently surveyed twelve hundred people with retirement savings accounts thirty percent of them said they had withdrawn funds from that account within the last couple of months and another twenty percent said they would do so so dell the investments which manages retirement accounts for twenty three million people says it's only seen about three hundred and seventy three thousand people take a withdrawal Meghan Murphy is a senior vice president it represents about one and a half percent of the people who we record keeping retirement plans for she says almost nine percent of people have decreased their contributions that's almost double the number a year ago fidelity is a market place under writer by the way vanguard says its customers were withdrawing at about the same rate as last year whatever the exact number of people withdrawing from the retirement accounts early David John expects it to rise John is a senior policy advisor at A. A. R. P. many people have been using more backward forms a savings to get through this month now they're going to start to turn to retirement accounts Americans weren't doing a great job saving for retirement or saving period even before coronavirus Torsten Slok is chief economist at Deutsche Bank half of the population did not have a savings account in two thousand nineteen and did not have I have money for a rainy day people who have to make withdrawals are lower contributions may leave this downturn even less prepared for retirement lending tree says the average withdrawal in that survey was sixty eight hundred dollars over thirty years at five percent.

writer Deutsche Bank A. A. R. dell Edison research chief economist Torsten Slok senior policy advisor David John Randy Allen senior vice president Meghan Murphy credit analyst Matt Schultz Congress Sabri Benatar el Segarra Cornell
"torsten slok" Discussed on AM 1590 WCGO

AM 1590 WCGO

02:59 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on AM 1590 WCGO

"Or you can follow me on Twitter at at Dealey dirt now that ticket gotta take the cats to the vets on Friday which is fine for me for the cats we have a really good relationship with our vet and which we haven't had any sick cats in a long time so we have been spending much time with that but it's the whole family we have five cats if you can name my cats if you can call eight four four three zero five seventy hundred and name my cats then you get a price I'll just tell you the names of my cats it will close you later there's tars who is the boy then mom then vesper than Wendy been Zegna T. U. V. W. X. C. easy to remember so we're taking the cats to the vet and I'm looking forward to it I need this is gonna be fun lots of fun not fun for the cats you know I used to get some criticism for saying that people should have six months of expenses or ten thousand box whichever is more and now you know why you do that hi so you know I was on the radio just breathlessly repeating this over and over again you need to have six months of expenses and this is this is why this is why so now people are learning and we have had seventeen million people lose their jobs and there's an economist his name is Torsten Slok at Deutsche Bank in he is estimating that an additional eight million or to lose their jobs this week which is going to bring us up to twenty five million which is about fourteen percent of the work force we already had an unemployment rate of about three and a half percent so I'll take it up to about seventeen I mean it's bad it's no good no good so there's lots of people have no cash coming in and you always have to be prepared for some period of time where there is no cash coming in in the ultimate example of this was the government shut down which I think was two years ago now or maybe last year the government workers never thought they'd see a day when they didn't have a paycheck they work for the government sends when would you not have a paycheck and they were living paycheck to paycheck so now you realize how fragile everything is how fragile the economy is this is why you have your six months of expenses in the bank accounts preferably a separate bank account earmarked for emergency expenses and just forget all the investing stuff you have to prepare for emergencies first if you can't do that then you haven't made it past step number one there's people out there with lots of money who aren't prepared.

Twitter Dealey dirt Torsten Slok Deutsche Bank Wendy
"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:17 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The consumer on the health of the balance sheets of Americans for frankly years and now it his research is all that much more poignant Torsten Slok Deutsche Bank chief economist joining us now in person you sent out a chart this morning that was pretty stark it was a global discretionary consumer spending a one hundred percent decline in two weeks can you give us a sense forcing of what we have seen so far in terms of the economic impact and what it might say if you extrapolate it further given the all the closures and shut down for the week of the coronavirus yeah I mean the unfortunate thing is that we went into this with an exaggeration consumer loans already going up we have seen it on auto loan delinquency rates go up for several years this has to do with loans were given to people who unfortunately were not able to pay their auto loans on time so that meant that the day would you rate had already been slowly moving high up on a number of different consumer loans so this of course is now the backdrop for the job that I sent out that you're mentioning exactly that we're beginning to see quite a significant drop off in discretionary spending discretionary spending basically means everything from cots two washers and dryers to furniture to electronics things that normally require financing or things that are normally become purchases and the nuance of causes that them with many people working at home you could expect to see some categories of consumer durable goods meeting electronics and computers and other things that could be doing better but broadly speaking this job is a good show for restaurants we've seen and this and more on the anecdotal side but we've seen a number of indicators begin to show that the portion of the global consumer and this is not only U. S. phenomenon the global could you might impulsively stepping pretty hard on the brakes when it comes to discretionary spending and that is of course not particularly good news when you think about the overall picture for the global economy so Thorson over the weekend we've seen a lot of forecast come out economic forecasts that US economic impact with obviously a significant contraction in the second quarter but most of them have a pretty swift rebounding cues three and four suggesting orbit of a V. type of scenario where do you come out on what the economic impact could be here yeah this is after a critical it is also critical to markets I mean what was the other leg of this A. V. O. even what if IT will be you what will that look like they they fear we had is that it will be a muted response and they're new to aspect comes essentially from the fact that once we are on the other side of the virus a if there are fears that the virus is not quite if you didn't everywhere in the world if this is that some countries still have it if the fears that it might still be in some emerging markets then you do begin to one of the one of any indications of course also for travel and not only traveled a globally but even travel domestically what are the implications in terms of how people think about what the longer term planning is in terms of vacations and long term planning in terms of businesses doing things so the reason why the reason to be somewhat cautious about the second leg of the beach or the lake into the second leg of the move higher is that day we will probably come out Malik Scott as consumers on the other side the culprits were quite frankly probably also come out most got what everyone will have higher savings and you as you know too well if you have high us stating the need for consumption will also be muted your high savings of corporate that also be the cap ex spending is also going to be muted so the risks are that they and the rebound here is going to be a mall a new to them all a limited threat to through the speed with which we are only at the moment mystic with persons Flocka US economist at Deutsche Bank and Torsten that you've done a lot of work about the fact that a lot of American households don't have an extra four hundred dollars to cover emergency expenses you've also talked about how the the lower wage workers are going to get harder hit by the disruptions caused by the corona virus and I'm just wondering going forward do you have a sense of whether the fiscal stimulus currently being bandied about in Washington DC adequately gets money to the people who would need it it order to continue their lifestyles and at least cushion the blow a little bit to get back to the kind of recovery that you're looking for hoping for on the other side of this yeah this is actually a key question from a fall classic perspective both of the economy and for markets the problem is that as you know and as you just mentioned that data set data A. M. about forty percent of the population would not be able to come up with a hundred dollars if they had an emergency expense and data from two thousand nineteen shows that roughly half of U. S. households don't have an emergency savings account and that means that they don't have a savings account with money put aside if there is some unexpected expenses and if you also look at the distribution of this it is distributed mall among low income households and if you also they look at the issues in terms of age distribution it is also distributed more in terms of and there's a younger people with a and the younger generations who don't have savings so it will certainly have a significant impact distributional terms on the consumer what we're going through here and to your question about the package that's being discussed a we need to see exactly how the design is the S. you'll cover so well this is still being debated but it is pretty clear that they're from a market perspective for every day that we don't get a solution then then there is a risk that they this will be a deeper slow down simply because something is needed right now all I need to go back and look at what happened in two thousand nine then when that Congress voted on sending checks out to consumers it took two months from the bill was voted on on to the checks actually arrives and two months for from today that brings you to leave me that's a very very long period of consumers why they still have to pay their bills on the rent the mobile phones the groceries everything that's going on and that's why it discretionary spending does get a bit lower priority and that scheme of things is it already too late I wouldn't say it's too late a but I mean S. as we all know and and if you think that the system can check out at the half of the U. S. house rules really only had their checking account and the money that they haven't done anything join us on portion of your lost your job through this and you are so unfortunate you don't have any savings I mean we have a rent payment coming up in April the first day and maybe we'll be able to get through that about the the longer that we have to go through rent payments and payments on mobile phones the more the more cautious and and more hesitant and reluctant to the U. S. could you would probably get so that's why it is the more confidence how U. S. households and markets can get data packages coming in the coming sooner rather later I do think that that will be very supportive of crosses the border from markets the most important ultimately so the U. S. economy tersentak thanks so much for joining us we really appreciate your perspective towards the stock is Deutsche bank's chief economist giving us his thoughts on how this is all involving from an economic perspective right now let's head down to.

chief economist Torsten Slok Deutsche Bank
"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:42 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"My special guest today is Brian Deese is the global head of sustainable investing at blackrock let's talk a little bit about climate change and what we're doing in response to it do you help to actually draft the Paris climate agreement what was your reaction to seeing the current administration withdraw from that and to how dangerous is it for the United States to not be a part of that well look I think it's in the the economic and national security interest of every country to be a finding a coordinate solution to this issue yeah I think the the impacts both the physical impacts that we're seeing that you know you we were seeing with our own eyes Californians are seeing if people in the Midwest or Centralia Australia and you know up and down the east coast the United States we're so we're seeing that everywhere and we're also seeing the risks from a financial perspective of what it means to actually move toward a low carbon economy pressure on fossil intensive business models more economic opportunity for low carbon solutions and I think that's the piece that is is is missing for this conversation sometime as you think about Paris and you think about a global effort what Paris really did was climate change internationally used to be this big debate between two teams is like a soccer match developed countries on the one hand developing countries and the others fighting about who was in charge of trick of having to solve this problem what Paris did was change that from head to head fight into a race we're all working together and now the question is which countries can actually get ahead in being the clean energy superpower so that twenty first century who's going to actually capture the economic opportunity enormous economic opportunity it's going to come from this transition in these new industries and so at the end of the day every country should want to be part of that race because the economic dividends that it creates so I saw a chart yesterday from Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank basically showing the US gets only about ten percent of our energy supply from renewables and I remember that more or less correctly that's from wind and solar if you look at the zero carbon including nuclear and hydro the number is the number is closer to forty right but we all really that much because we've had a pretty robust nuclear and hydro not as much as France has on the nuclear side or hydro so dependent on the local geology but we've had that for decades yeah yeah and so what has been the marginal increase and low carbon or zero carbon energy sources over the past decade or so we'll see the two big things that you've seen happen in the U. S. energy mix R. one V. rapid increase of renewable spring onto the grid and the the rate of change and adoption of renewables is very fast even though we're still you know we're still moving up at a relatively low base and the second is the the adoption of and build out of natural gas as a baseload cheaper baseload energy source to call which is primarily manifesting itself in the transition of the big electrical generation plants that used to be mostly coal fired and now have seen some dramatically move towards gas is that fair correct so those are the two the two big dynamics is gas driving coal out of the energy mix and renewables coming on to the grid it rapidly that's that's the story of the last decade I think the story of the next decade is really going to be about what happens not the future of utilities but the utilities of the future because we're gonna move increasingly toward a scenario where we are electrifying everything and so the great and the great applications are going to become less straight forward of you have a point source where you generate a bunch of electrons in the figure out of transmission and distribution system we're going to have increasingly distributed generation you're gonna have sources you know its sources of power and sources of storage that are plugging into the grid in different ways which will create new stresses but also a bunch of new opportunities different that will be one of the things that make the next decade different from the last so we converted to natural gas about two or three years ago not only do we do that I ran a a backup generator on top of that and I noticed not only am I not burning home heating oil I'm burning gas the price is a fraction of what it was and if you live anywhere north of the Mason Dixon line and won a heated pool oh my god I used to get thousand dollar oil deliveries it seemed like every other day and now it cost me two hundred Bucks keep the pool with eighty six degrees into November it's so incredibly cheap why hasn't this transition taking place faster where we going as fast as we can well the good news is that the transition has both economics and physics on its side and so the reason why you're seeing that and the reason why zero carbon renewable energy is increasingly the lowest cost source of generation to add into the grading places around the world from in DOT Chile where new solar beats on a levelized cost the build out of new coal or other sources it's amazing should eat them the market is driving that but also the the zero carbon energy sources are technology and so part of the reason why is you've seen this rapid reduction in the cost of wind and solar and battery storage because the technology is just advancing very rapidly and so this year carbon energy sources have technology at their back as well that's the good news the bad news here is that even though this transition it's not moving nearly fast enough to put us on a trajectory that would keep the increasing global temperatures to the rate that we identified in the Paris agreement or to the rate of even more ambitious set of targets that are white the global body of science is telling us you need to avoid the worst impacts so what aren't we doing that we should be doing and what I mean by that is not just Hey everybody go buy a Tesla or GM vaults but what is the government not doing to provide incentives to accelerate what's already taking place on an economic and market driven set of functions ultimately what's going to drive the speed of the transition is government policies that provide long term stability in prioritizing more sustainable source of energy and more sustainable sources of economic activity and you know around the world we're seeing less than a coherent global coordination of policy that's a long way from that being the case but the other thing that's gonna help accelerating it gets to the work we're really doing a blackrock is a greater understanding and a greater clarity within financial markets about the magnitude that of the risk that actually already exists or is coming and our view is as that becomes clearer we're gonna see a big reallocation of capital based on risk and based on financial markets fully reflecting those risks in the market so let's focus not for a moment we've seen in the insurance space more than anywhere else big increase in rates how long do you expect it to take to transition from insurance as a frontline recipient of the impact and costs of climate change to the rest of those sectors in the market place well look I would say you're starting to see that insurance but I think we're gonna see accelerate much more significantly as well most of the financial models in the financial approaches that we've taken our eyes are backward looking or they rely on this assumption of climactic stability the basic stability we've seen around physical impacts and and threats will you accelerate the way it has in the past and that's no longer a viable option which is going to require us to rethink a lot of basic questions about finance quite fascinating coming up we continue our conversation with Brian Deese global.

Brian Deese global head blackrock Paris
"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:35 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Bloomberg radio my special guest today is Brian Dees he is the global head of sustainable investing at blackrock let's talk a little bit about climate change and what we're doing in response to it do you help to actually draft the Paris climate agreement what was your reaction to seeing the current administration withdraw from that and how dangerous is it for the United States to not be a part of that well look I think it's in the the economic and national security interest of every country to be a finding a coordinate solution to this issue yeah I think the the impacts both the physical impacts that we're seeing that you know we were seeing with our own eyes Californians are seeing if people in the Midwest for Centralia Australia and you know up and down the east coast the United States we're so we're seeing that everywhere and we're also seeing the risks from a financial perspective of what it means to actually move toward a low carbon economy pressure on fossil intensive business models more economic opportunity for low carbon solutions and I think that's the piece that is is is missing for this conversation sometime as you think about Paris and you think about a global effort what parents really did was climate change internationally used to be this big debate between two teams is like a soccer match developed countries on the one hand developing countries and the others fighting about who was in charge of trick of having to solve this problem what Paris did was change that from head to head fight into a race we're all working together and now the question is which countries can actually get ahead in being the clean energy superpower so that twenty first century who's going to actually capture the economic opportunity enormous economic opportunity it's going to come from this transition in these new industries and so at the end of the day every country should want to be part of that race because the economic dividends that it creates so Sir chart yesterday from Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank basically showing the US gets only about ten percent of our energy supply from renewables and I remember that more or less correctly that's from wind and solar if you look at the zero carbon including nuclear and hydro the numbers the number is closer to forty right but we all really that much because we've had a pretty robust nuclear and hydro not as much as France has on the nuclear side or hydro so dependent on the local geology but we've had that for decades yeah yeah and so what has been the marginal increase and low carbon or zero carbon energy sources over the past decade or so we'll see the two big things that you've seen happen in the U. S. energy mix R. one the rapid increase of renewables bring on to the grid and V. the rate of change and adoption of renewables is very fast even though we're still you know we're still moving up at a relatively low base and the second is the the adoption of and build out of natural gas as a baseload cheaper baseload energy source to call which is primarily manifesting itself in the transition of the big electrical generation plants that used to be mostly coal fired and now have seem them dramatically move towards gas is that fair correct so those are the two the two big dynamics is gas driving coal out of the energy mix and renewables coming on to the great rapidly that's that's the story of the last decade I think this story the next decade is really going to be about what happens not the future of utilities but the utilities of the future because we're gonna move increasingly toward a scenario where we are electrifying everything and so the great and the great applications are going to become less straight forward of you have a point source where you generate a bunch of electrons in the figure out of transmission and distribution system we're going to have increasingly distributed generation you're gonna have sources you know its sources of power and sources of storage there plugging into the grid in different ways which will create new stresses but also a bunch of new opportunities different that will be one of the things that make the next decade different from the last so we converted to natural gas about two or three years ago not only do we do that I ran a a backup generator on top of that and I noticed not only am I not burning home heating oil on burning gas the price is a fraction of what it was and if you live anywhere north of the Mason Dixon line and won a heated pool oh my god I used to get thousand dollar oil deliveries seem like every other day and now it cost me two hundred Bucks keep the pool with eighty six degrees into November it's so incredibly cheap why hasn't this transition taking place faster or we going as fast as we can well the good news is that the transition has both economics and physics on its side.

Bloomberg global head blackrock
"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:14 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Is Brian Dees he is the global head of sustainable investing at blackrock let's talk a little bit about climate change and what we're doing in response to it do you help to actually draft the Paris climate agreement what was your reaction to seeing the current administration withdraw from that and to how dangerous is it for the United States to not be a part of that well look I think it's in the the economic and national security interest of every country to be a finding a coordinate solution to this issue yeah I think the the impacts both the physical impacts that we're seeing that you know you we were seeing with our own eyes Californians are seeing it people the Midwest for Centralia Australia and you know up and down the east coast the United States we're so we're seeing that everywhere and we're also seeing the risks from a financial perspective of what it means to actually move toward a low carbon economy pressure on fossil intensive business models more economic opportunity for low carbon solutions and I think that's the piece that is is is missing for this conversation sometime as you think about Paris and you think about a global effort what parents really did was climate change internationally used to be this big debate between two teams is like a soccer match developed countries on the one hand developing countries and the others fighting about who was in charge of trick of having to solve this problem what did was change that from head to head fight into a race we're all working together and now the question is which countries can actually get ahead in being the clean energy superpower so that twenty first century who's going to actually capture the economic opportunity enormous economic opportunity it's going to come from this transition in these new industries and so at the end of the day every country should want to be part of that race because the economic dividends that it creates so I saw a chart yesterday from Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank basically showing the US gets only about ten percent of our energy supply from renewables and I remember that more or less correctly that's from wind and solar if you look at the zero carbon including nuclear and hydro the numbers the number is closer to forty right but we all really that much because we've had a pretty robust nuclear and hydro not as much as France has on the nuclear side or hydro so dependent on the local geology but we've had that for decades yeah yeah and so what has been the marginal increase and low carbon or zero carbon energy sources over the past decade or so well so the two big things that you've seen happen in the U. S. energy mix R. one the rapid increase of renewables bring on to the grid and V. the rate of change and adoption of renewables is very fast even though we're still you know we're still moving up at a relatively low base and the second is the hit option of and build out of natural gas as a baseload cheaper baseload energy source to call which is primarily manifesting itself in the transition of the big electrical generation plants that used to be mostly coal fired and now have seen some dramatically move towards gas is that fair correct so those are the two the two big dynamics is gas driving coal out of the energy mix and renewables coming on to the grid it rapidly that's that's the story of the last decade I think the story of the next decade is really going to be about what happens not the future of utilities but the utilities of the future because we're gonna move increasingly toward a scenario where we are electrifying everything and so the great and the great applications are going to become less straight forward of you have a point source where you generate a bunch of electrons and you figure out a transmission and distribution system we're going to have increasingly distributed generation you're gonna have sources you know its sources of power and sources of storage there plugging into the grid in different ways which will create new stresses but also a bunch of new opportunities different that will be one of the things that make the next decade different from the last so we converted to natural gas about two or three years ago not only do we do that I ran a a backup generator on top of that and I noticed not only am I not burning home heating oil on burning gas the price is a fraction of what it was and if you live anywhere north of the Mason Dixon line and when heated pool oh my god I used to get.

global head blackrock
"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:46 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I'm very results you're listening to masters in business on Bloomberg radio my special guest today is Brian Dees he is the global head of sustainable investing at blackrock let's talk a little bit about climate change and what we're doing in response to it you help to actually draft the Paris climate agreement what was your reaction to seeing the current administration withdraw from that and to how dangerous is it for the United States to not be a part of that well look I think it's in the the economic and national security interest of every country to be a finding a coordinate solution to this issue yeah I think the the impacts both the physical impacts that we're seeing that you know you we were seeing with our own eyes Californians are seeing if people the Midwest or Centralia Australia and you know up and down the east coast the United States we're so we're seeing that everywhere and we're also seeing the risks from a financial perspective of what it means to actually move toward a low carbon economy pressure on fossil intensive business models more economic opportunity for low carbon solutions and I think that's the piece that is is is missing for this conversation sometime this you think about Paris and you think about a global effort what parents really did was climate change internationally used to be this big debate between two teams is like a soccer match developed countries on the one hand developing countries and the others fighting about who was in charge of trick of having to solve this problem what Paris did was change that from head to head fight into a race we're all working together and now the question is which countries can actually get ahead in being the clean energy superpower so that twenty first century who's going to actually capture the economic opportunity enormous economic opportunity it's going to come from this transition and these new industries and so at the end of the day every country should want to be part of that race because the economic dividends that it creates so I saw a chart yesterday from Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank basically showing the US gets only about ten percent of our energy supply from renewables and I remember that more or less correctly that's from wind and solar if you look at the zero carbon including nuclear and hydro the number is the number is closer to forty right but we all really that much because we've had a pretty robust nuclear and hydro not as much as France has on the nuclear side or hydro so dependent on the local geology but we've had that for decades yeah yeah and so what has been the marginal increase in low carbon or zero carbon energy sources over the past decade or so well so the two big things that you've seen happen in the U. S. energy mix R. one the rapid increase of renewable spring onto the grid and V. the rate of change and adoption of renewables is very fast even though we're still you know we're still moving up at a relatively low base and the second is the hit option of and build out of natural gas as a baseload cheaper baseload energy source to call which is primarily manifesting itself in the transition of the big electrical generation plants that used to be mostly coal fired and now have seen some dramatically move towards gas is that fair correct so those are the two the two big dynamics is gas driving coal out of the energy mix and renewables coming on to the great rapidly that's that's the story of the last decade I think the story of the next decade is really going to be about what happens not the future of utilities but the utilities of the future because we're gonna move increasingly toward a scenario where we are electrifying everything and so the great and the great applications are going to become less straight forward of you have a point source where you generate a bunch of electrons in the figure out of transmission and distribution system we're going to have increasingly distributed generation you're gonna have sources you know its sources of power and sources of storage there plugging into the grid in different ways which will create new stresses but also a bunch of new opportunities different that will be one of the things that make the next decade different from the last so we converted to natural gas about two or three years ago not only do we do that I ran a a backup generator on top of that and I noticed not only in my not burning home heating oil on burning gas the price is a fraction of what it was and if you live anywhere north of the Mason Dixon line and won a heated pool oh my god I used to get thousand dollar oil deliveries it seemed like every other day and now it cost me two hundred Bucks keep the pool at eighty six degrees into November it's so incredibly cheap why hasn't this transition taking place faster or we going as fast as we can well the good news is that the transition has both economics and physics on its side and so the reason why you're seeing that and the reason why zero carbon renewable energy is increasingly the lowest cost source of generation to add into the grid in places around the world from in E. L. to Chile where new solar beats on levelized cost the build out of new coal or other sources that's amazing city them the market is driving that but also the the zero carbon energy sources are technology and so the reason why is you've seen this rapid reduction in the cost of wind and solar and battery storage because the technology is just advancing very rapidly and so the zero carbon energy sources have technology at their back as well that's the good news the bad news here is that even though this transition it's not moving nearly fast enough to put us on a trajectory that would keep the increasing global temperatures to the rate that we identified in the Paris agreement or to the rate of even more ambitious set of targets that are white the global body of science is telling us you need to avoid the worst impacts so what aren't we doing that we should be doing and what I mean by that is not just Hey everybody go buy a Tesla or GM vaults but what is the government not doing to provide incentives to accelerate what's already taking place on an economic and market driven set of functions ultimately what's going to drive the speed of the transition is government policies that provide long term stability in prioritizing more sustainable source of energy and more sustainable sources of economic activity and you know around the world we're seeing less than a coherent global coordination of policy as are a long way from that being the case but the other thing that's gonna help accelerating it gets to the work we're really doing a blackrock is a greater understanding and a greater clarity within financial markets about the magnitude that of the risk that actually already exists or is coming and our view is as that becomes clearer we're going to see a big reallocation of capital based on risk and based on financial markets fully reflecting those risks in the market so let's focus on not for a moment we've seen in the insurance space more than anywhere else big increase in rates how long do you expect it to take to transition from insurance as a frontline recipient of the impact and costs of climate change to the rest of those sectors in the marketplace well look I would say you're starting to see that insurance but I think we're gonna see accelerate much more significantly as well most of the financial models in the financial approaches that we've taken our eyes are backward looking or they rely on this assumption of climactic stability the basic stability we've seen around physical impacts and and threats will accelerate the way it has in the past and that's no longer a viable option which is going to require us to rethink a lot of basic questions about finance quite fascinating coming up we continue our conversation with Brian Deese global.

Brian Dees global head blackrock Bloomberg
"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:50 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Is Brian Dees he is the global head of sustainable investing at blackrock let's talk a little bit about climate change and what we're doing in response to it do you help to actually draft the Paris climate agreement what was your reaction to seeing the current administration withdraw from that and how dangerous is it for the United States to not be a part of that well look I think it's in the the economic and national security interest of every country to be a finding a coordinate solution to this issue yeah I think the the impacts both the physical impacts that we're seeing that you know you we were seeing with our own eyes Californians are seeing if people in the Midwest for Centralia Australia and you know up and down the east coast the United States we're so we're seeing that everywhere and we're also seeing the risks from a financial perspective of what it means to actually move toward a low carbon economy pressure on fossil intensive business models more economic opportunity for low carbon solutions and I think that's the piece that is is is missing for this conversation sometime as you think about Paris and you think about a global effort what Paris really did was climate change internationally used to be this big debate between two teams is like a soccer match developed countries on the one hand developing countries and the others fighting about who was in charge of trick of having to solve this problem what Paris did was change that from head to head fight into a race we're all working together and now the question is which countries can actually get ahead in being the clean energy superpower so that twenty first century who's going to actually capture the economic opportunity enormous economic opportunity it's going to come from this transition in these new industries and so at the end of the day every country should want to be part of that race because the economic dividends that it creates so is your chart yesterday from Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank basically showing the US gets only about ten percent of our energy supply from renewables and I remember that more or less correctly that's from wind and solar if you look at the zero carbon including nuclear and hydro the numbers the number is closer to forty right but we all really that much because we've had a pretty robust nuclear and hydro not as much as France has on the nuclear side or hydro so dependent on the local geology but we've had that for decades yeah yeah and so what has been the marginal increase and low carbon or zero carbon energy sources over the past decade or so we'll see the two big things that you've seen happen in the U. S. energy mix R. one the rapid increase of renewable spring onto the grid and V. the rate of change and adoption of renewables is very fast even though we're still you know we're still moving up at a relatively low base and the second is the the adoption of and build out of natural gas as a baseload cheaper baseload energy source to call which is primarily manifesting itself in the transition of the big electrical generation plants that used to be mostly coal fired and now have seem them dramatically move towards gas is that fair correct so those are the two the two big dynamics is gas driving coal out of the energy mix and renewables coming on to the grid rapidly that's that's the story of the last decade I think the story of the next decade is really going to be about what happens not the future of utilities but the utilities of the future because we're gonna move increasingly toward a scenario where we are electrifying everything and so the great and the great applications are going to become less straight forward of you have a point source where you generate a bunch of electrons and you figure out a transmission and distribution system we're going to have increasingly distributed generation you're gonna have sources you know its sources of power and sources of storage there plugging into the grid in different ways which will create new stresses but also a bunch of new opportunities different that will be one of the things that make the next decade different from the last so we converted to natural gas about two or three years ago not only do we do that I ran a a backup generator on top of that and I noticed not only in my not burning home heating oil on burning gas the price is a fraction of what it was and if you live anywhere north of the Mason Dixon line and when heated pool oh my god I used to get thousand dollar oil deliveries it seemed like every other day and now it cost me two hundred Bucks keep the pool at eighty six degrees into November it's so incredibly cheap why hasn't this transition taking place faster where we going as fast as we can well the good news is that the transition has both economics and physics on its side and so the reason why you're seeing that and the reason why zero carbon renewable energy is increasingly the lowest cost source of generation to add into the grid in places around the world from in you don't actually work new solar beats on a levelized cost the build out of new coal or other sources it's amazing city them the market is driving that but also the the zero carbon energy sources are technology and so part of the reason why is you've seen this rapid reduction in the cost of wind and solar and battery storage because the technology is just advancing very rapidly and so the zero carbon energy sources have technology at their back as well that's the good news the bad news here is that even though this transition it's not moving nearly fast enough to put us on a trajectory that would keep the increasing global temperatures to the rate that we identified in the Paris agreement or to the rate of even more ambitious set of targets that are white the global body of science is telling us you need to avoid the worst impacts so what aren't we doing that we should be doing and what I mean by that is not just Hey everybody go buy a Tesla or GM vaults but what is the government not doing to provide incentives to accelerate what's already taking place on an economic and market driven set of functions ultimately what's going to drive the speed of the transition is government policies that provide long term stability in prioritizing more sustainable source of energy and more sustainable sources of economic activity and you know around the world we're seeing less than a coherent global coordination and policy it's a long way from that being the case but the other thing that's gonna help accelerating it gets to the work we're really doing a blackrock is a greater understanding and a greater clarity within financial markets about the magnitude that of the risk that actually already exists or is coming and our view is as that becomes clearer we're going to see a big reallocation of capital based on risk and based on financial markets fully reflecting those risks in the market so let's focus on not for a moment we've seen in the insurance space more than anywhere else big increase in rates how long do you expect it to take to transition from insurance as a frontline recipient of the impact and costs of climate change to the rest of those sectors in the market place well look I would say you're starting to see that insurance but I think we're gonna see accelerate much more significantly as well most of the financial models in the financial approaches that we've taken our eyes are backward looking or they rely on this assumption of climactic stability the basic stability we've seen around physical impacts and and threats will accelerate the way it has in the past and that's no longer a viable option which is going to require us to rethink a lot of basic questions about finance quite fascinating coming up we continue our conversation with Brian Deese global head of sustainable investing at blackrock discussing the rise of sustainable investment you're listening to masters in business with very results on Bloomberg.

Brian Dees global head blackrock Paris
"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:17 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"On Bloomberg radio my special guest today is Brian Dees he is the global head of sustainable investing at blackrock let's talk a little bit about climate change and what we're doing in response to it do you help to actually draft the Paris climate agreement what was your reaction to seeing the current administration withdraw from that and to how dangerous is it for the United States to not be a part of that well look I think it's in the the economic and national security interest of every country to be a finding a coordinate solution to this issue yeah I think the the impacts both the physical impacts that we're seeing that you know you we were seeing with our own eyes Californians are seeing if people in the Midwest for Centralia Australia and you know up and down the east coast the United States we're so we're seeing that everywhere and we're also seeing the risks from a financial perspective of what it means to actually move toward a low carbon economy pressure on fossil intensive business models more economic opportunity for low carbon solutions and I think that's the piece that is is is missing for this conversation sometime as you think about Paris and you think about a global effort what parents really did was climate change internationally used to be this big debate between two teams is like a soccer match developed countries on the one hand developing countries and the others fighting about who was in charge of trick of having to solve this problem what Paris did was change that from head to head fight into a race we're all working together and now the question is which countries can actually get ahead in being the clean energy superpower so that twenty first century who's going to actually capture the economic opportunity enormous economic opportunity it's going to come from this transition in these new industries and so at the end of the day every country should want to be part of that race because the economic dividends that it creates so I saw a chart yesterday from Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank basically showing the US gets only about ten percent of our energy supply from renewables and I remember that more or less correctly that's from wind and solar if you look at the zero carbon including nuclear and hydro the number is the number is closer to forty right but we all really that much because we've had a pretty robust nuclear and hydro not as much as France has on the nuclear side or hydro so dependent on the local geology but we've had that for decades yeah yeah and so what has been the marginal increase and low carbon or zero carbon energy sources over the past decade or so we'll see the two big things that you've seen happen in the U. S. energy mix R. one the rapid increase of renewables bring on to the grid and V. the rate of change and adoption of renewables is very fast even though we're still you know we're still moving up at a relatively low base and the second is the hit option of and build out of natural gas as a baseload cheaper baseload energy source to call which is primarily manifesting itself in the transition of the big electrical generation plants that used to be mostly coal fired and now have seen some dramatically move towards gas is that fair correct so those are the two the two big dynamics is gas driving coal out of the energy mix and renewables coming on to the grid rapidly that's that's the story of the last decade I think the story of the next decade is really going to be about what happens not the future of utilities but the utilities of the future because we're gonna move increasingly toward a scenario where we are electrifying everything and so the great and the great applications are going to become less straight forward of you have a point source where you generate a bunch of electrons and you figure out a transmission and distribution system we're going to have increasingly distributed generation you're gonna have sources you know its sources of power and sources of storage that are plugging into the grid in different ways which will create new stresses but also a bunch of new opportunities different that will be one of the things that make the next decade different from the last so we converted to natural gas about two or three years ago not only do we do that I ran a a backup generator on top of that and I noticed not only am I not burning home heating oil on burning gas the price is a fraction of what it was and if you live anywhere north of the Mason Dixon line and when heated pool oh my god I used to get.

global head blackrock Bloomberg
"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:35 min | 2 years ago

"torsten slok" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"On Bloomberg radio my special guest today is Brian Dees he is the global head of sustainable investing at blackrock let's talk a little bit about climate change and what we're doing in response to it do you help to actually draft the Paris climate agreement what was your reaction to seeing the current administration withdraw from that and to how dangerous is it for the United States to not be a part of that well look I think it's in the the economic and national security interest of every country to be a finding a coordinate solution to this issue yeah I think the the impacts both the physical impacts that we're seeing that you know you we were seeing with our own eyes Californians are seeing if people the Midwest or Centralia astro yeah and you know up and down the east coast the United States we're so we're seeing that everywhere and we're also seeing the risks from a financial perspective of what it means to actually move toward a low carbon economy pressure on fossil intensive business models more economic opportunity for low carbon solutions and I think that's the piece that is is is missing for this conversation sometime as you think about Paris and you think about a global effort what Paris really did was climate change internationally used to be this big debate between two teams it was like a soccer match developed countries on the one hand developing countries and the others fighting about who was in charge of trick of having to solve this problem what Paris did was change that from head to head fight into a race we're all working together and now the question is which countries can actually get ahead in being the clean energy superpower so that twenty first century who's going to actually capture the economic opportunity enormous economic opportunity it's going to come from this transition in these new industries and so at the end of the day every country should want to be part of that race because the economic dividends that it creates so is your chart yesterday from Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank basically showing the US gets only about ten percent of our energy supply from renewables and I remember that more or less correctly that's from wind and solar if you look at the zero carbon including nuclear and hydro the number is the number is closer to forty right but we all really that much because we've had a pretty robust nuclear and hydro not as much as France has on the nuclear side or hydro so dependent on the local geology but we've had that for decades yeah yeah and so what has been the marginal increase in low carbon or zero carbon energy sources over the past decade or so we'll see the two big things that you've seen happen in the U. S. energy mix R. one the rapid increase of renewable spring onto the grid and V. the rate of change and adoption of renewables is very fast even though we're still you know we're still moving up at a relatively low base and the second is the deduction of and build out of natural gas as a baseload cheaper baseload energy source to call which is primarily manifesting itself in the transition of the big electrical generation plants that used to be mostly coal fired and now have seen some dramatically move towards gas is that fair correct so those are the two the two big dynamics is gas driving coal out of the energy mix and renewables coming on to the grid rapidly that's that's the story of the last decade I think this story the next decade is really going to be about what happens not the future of utilities but the utilities of the future because we're gonna move increasingly toward a scenario where we are electrifying everything and so the great and the great applications are going to become less straight forward of you have a point source where you generate a bunch of electrons in the figure out of transmission and distribution system we're going to have increasingly distributed generation you're gonna have sources you know its sources of power and sources of storage that are plugging into the grid in different ways which will create new stresses but also a bunch of new opportunities different that will be one of the things that make the next decade different from the last so we converted to natural gas about two or three years ago not only do we do that I ran a a backup generator on top of that and I noticed not only in my not burning home heating oil on burning gas the price is a fraction of what it was and if you live anywhere north of the Mason Dixon line and when heated pool oh my god I used to get thousand dollar oil deliveries it seemed like every other day and now it cost me two hundred Bucks keep the pool with eighty six degrees into November it's so incredibly cheap why hasn't this transition taking place faster where we going as fast as we can well the good news is that the transition has both economics and physics on its side.

global head blackrock Bloomberg