6 Burst results for "Torsten Slack"

U.S. Growth at Slowest Since 2016

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

04:28 min | 2 years ago

U.S. Growth at Slowest Since 2016

"From the Commerce Department. This morning came our first peek at economic growth for the fourth quarter of last year and with it the early estimate of growth for all of two thousand nineteen September. Through new years. The American economy grew at an annualized rate of two point one percent for the full year two point three percent well below it ought to be I noted what president trump and his advisors have been promising with their policy prescriptions also a slowdown from two thousand eighteen to boot of particular interest to us today. Hey the line item in this report covering business. Investment what companies are spending on equipment and computers and office supplies and the like it has been falling for three straight quarters now. Marketplace's short gets. Its going with what we ought to take from that for nine months now American businesses have been spending less and less money on things they might need need in the future. Everything that you have in your office. Everything is having a production factory that is business investment and that is Torsten Slack chief economist at deutschebank. That's a trade. War came along we began to see business spending begin to slow down and unfortunately there's been an status slowdown for essentially the last eighteen months or so the business investment accounts for about thirteen percent of GDP more than two point eight to really IAN dollars so if businesses are kind of backing away slowly from investing in the future. What does that mean for the future? The Lost Time we saw business investment decline for three quarters or more was heading heading into the two thousand eight two thousand nine recession Nicholas Bloom is professor of economics at Stanford we are not rest assured bloom says about to have another big recession Russian decline in business investment now is tiny compared to what it was back then swearing although not surprising for now. Shrinking business investment means. Our economy is growing more slowly. Which we've known? GDP growth in the fourth quarter of twenty nineteen was two point one percent. It was two point. Nine percent overall back in two thousand eighteen Richard TASERS chief corporate economists with Wells Fargo and company over the long run if we as a society do not invest in upgrading and modernizing and expanding our capital stock with newer and better Sheen ARY instructors equipment. We'll be productive and economists. Say they do not expect a rebound in business investment asmant around the corner in New York. I'm Sabrina short for marketplace. So that's US but as I mentioned above there is the small matter of the rest of the global economy. We we also learned this morning that the Mexican economy actually contracted last year not allot a tenth of a percent for all of two thousand nineteen but it is the worst showing for the Mexican economy in a decade marketplace Mitchell Hartman. Has that one. The economic news on Mexican cable network millennial today wasn't good man. He coke zero percent while a lot of economies. Hit speed bumps twenty nine thousand nine hundred. Mexico hit a roadblock says Council on Foreign Relations Latin America analysts Shannon. O'Neill Mexico has has definitely been affected by the softness and US manufacturing and particularly in the automobile industry in aerospace. That's because parts and finished goods. Go go back and forth across the border again and again before being shipped to their final destination and Monica to bowl at the Peterson Institute. Says this complex supply. I Ching often involves another country China. Mexico appears to have been the hardest hit economy on a micro level by the US S. China trade war. A lot of the supply chains between the US and China run through Mexico as well as Mexico's manufacturing sector construction -struction and consumption have also been week economists Repairman Chalk that up to uncertainty. He says business owners and International. Investors have been spooked. EXPI- Mexico's new president cancelling big infrastructure projects and the borders than volatile. In twenty. That team there was discussion about diverting the resources that are used to clear cargo back and forth in order to deal with the refugee situation. There has been some slowdown in the retail traffic. Both sides of the border other problems. Meanwhile continue to play. The country says Monica to bowl. It's a slow growing economy. And one of the reasons is the drag posed by e security narcotrafficking corruption. Issue you. She says even in the best of times. The Mexican economy hasn't grown more than about two and a half percent. I'm Mitchell Hartman for

United States Mexico Mitchell Hartman Monica President Trump Commerce Department China Nicholas Bloom Expi- Mexico Donald Trump Torsten Slack Wells Fargo Deutschebank Chief Economist Richard Tasers Stanford Peterson Institute New York
"torsten slack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:25 min | 3 years ago

"torsten slack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Yen at one oh nine point two one. And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom in keeping with futures at negative twenty two real deterioration off of production productions actually, very rich report of data. I went through it. And I'll be direct the vectors pretty much are moldy George serve Ellis Deutsche Bank colleague Torsten slack publishing. Twenty minutes ago. George Cervello's just out saying there is more to go years a cautious tone as he looks at the trade war. We're now going to turn the equity markets. Christopher santee with us with sanity capital management in his charm. Is there is a concentration his portfolio is less diversified than many, but diversified across sectors. Chris let me start with a tie to construct. What did you not done in your portfolio allocation in the last week? What's the thing that sticks out that you've not done? Well, we're not raising cash, Tom. You're the first quarter earnings were good mostly across the board. We're getting some noise today both in US economic end Chinese news. But, but we think it's mostly noise. So we think downturns that are not earnings related are upper -tunities rather than in scary events. So how Chris are you factoring in what potentially could be maybe longer term trade uncertainty that seems like that quick fix that may be the presence mothers. We're talking about just a couple of weeks ago may not occur. Yeah. Clearly, that's the sixty four billion dollar question. But we think there's three possible outcomes. No, no resolution a crummy deal or a good deal. The market will go up on either of the last two, even if it's a crummy deal tariffs are going away. The market will do. Well, we find it hard to believe over the next six months that there won't be some form of deal good or crummy and that with an election coming in both sides and eating deal. You know, we think that's a pretty good battle though, clearly not a flame. So where in the market? Do you look giving these uncertain times sectors in the equity market that you feel more comfortable with now giving what could be six months or maybe even longer than certainty? There's two categories really there's places clearly the first instinct is to run to places that were terrace won't hurt very much, and I've been pounding the table and Wells Fargo way too long. But I think it's a wonderful place. It's got a yield. That's almost twice the ten year. It's not going to be affected by tariffs, etc. Etc. Then there's other places like Delta Airlines, which has been in our opinion overly affected by terrorists. And. And even if tariff stay in place for a while the company should have earning hit a little bit. But not a lot. And yet the stock is down ten twenty thirty percent deltas one fortune brands home security would be another booking dot com. Abi another those are places that will be affected by trade. But we think stocks already reflected in their good long-term companies with good management. What do you expect to hear from you mentioned? We just got through a pretty decent. Let's say a better than expected. First-quarter earnings came in expectations are pretty low going in the company seemed to outperform what is your expectation for earnings for the remainder of the year again, given the backdrop which might be higher uncertainty around trade or in this case, I think boring is good. I think we'll have decent down the middle of the fairway quarters is what we see we see six months when we see Rato long rates higher because we haven't accommodative fed, we may see a steeper curve, therefore, and you know, we think it's a positive construct for stocks trade is the big bucks. Boo. But you could see a resolution to that over the next six months. And I think that's the more likely case, Chris thank you so much greatly. Appreciate it. Management. We'll do a much longer tone him here in a bit Paul think we really got to review the markets. We started out with China data that was in the German data, which was I guess cya relief because it wasn't recession. But I noticed there fixed asset investment was not so good and it came in. And I looked yielding. I said, wow. This is a really big tangible moves the Swiss twenty year point zero one nine which seems I don't know Mack truck distant from where it was forty eight hours ago is well was Frank strength as well as you point out. And then you came over the United States, waking up and to meet Paul. The story is not so much yields are lower. But it's just been a grind and relentless. It's been a grind in. I think the relentless search for, you know, quote, unquote, a safe haven, and people are just piling into US treasuries again looking at the tenure. Today. Fourteen thirty seconds. Mom and pop go to cash, I I think I think so look at that yield on the ten years two point three six is just a week or so ago quoting two point five. So and I know you can calling out the two year down below two point one four. So the yields just grinding lower. It's almost every day. We come in. We talk about you know, how those yields are grinding lower again. I guess it's not surprising because he'd look at where else are you going to go to the major correlation? I look at those you fixated on the stock market is obviously SMP futures negative twenty two in Dow futures down negative two hundred I we we're we're halfway back to where we were at the bottom two days ago. We got to be a bigger percentage than that right now to do that work on a break. But I correlate that with yen. You say, well, why yen impolitic explain this to our listeners dollar yen and stronger, yen weaker dollar is the mother of all saving indicators, particularly when you're talking about. China Asian global trade. I mean the end. Is certainly a place where we're where people look. So it's good that you're calling that out because it's a currency. I think people have been really focusing on the euro and sterling, but when you talk about China, you really need to take a look at yen because a lot of investors do five chart on you. We did not get to a one away handle the low was one oh nine point zero two. We're moving in that facility right now stronger yen today along with these weaker S S A P futures to say where the robot. This is Bloomberg..

Chris US Bloomberg Tom China Paul George Cervello Ellis Deutsche Bank Christopher santee Torsten slack fortune brands Delta Airlines Rato Wells Fargo Mack Frank six months sixty four billion dollar
"torsten slack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

10:09 min | 3 years ago

"torsten slack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Let's get the payrolls report his Vinnie Donncha dice Jonathan gang BUSTER. Number april. Non-farm payrolls up by a quarter million. A gain of two hundred sixty three thousand the unemployment rate. Dropping three point six percent average hourly earnings picking up a point two percent month over month. Three point two percent. Sent in April year-over-year, that's actually unchanged but month over month. We are seeing a bit of a pickup in average hourly earnings again nonfarm payrolls up by two hundred sixty three thousand topping forecasts unemployment free point six percent of gang BUSTER report. And he could probably toss out the jobless claim numbers. We've seen the past two weeks. I'm vinnie. Bloomberg radio. Let's go back to New York Vinnie. Thank you. Thank you very much. He's the price action that Dulles stronger ninety eight handle on the dollar index. Pay quarter of one percent coda third on the session right now in the bond market treasury drifted higher they drift even higher up three paces points on a ten year to fifty seven on. I two, you know, at two point three six seven percent and up to his points on the day futures. They stay positive the S and P five hundred up by ten points. Tom Kaine that's really solid headline number two sixty three. And even if you strip out what could be the census affect private payrolls Coggins said he six Megyn estimate one IT. And then I know what you want to talk about. I wanna talk your morning. Dwight Eisenhower out on employment. I'm sorry. Three point six percent. Unemployment rate. Glassman was young Turk. When we were back. It's patient. Come again a little bit though that sixty two point. I'm no, I think it's Radi. Ready decent payrolls report. I'm just making Don wreck to the unemployment dynamics Glassman. This is so important with the augmented unemployment rate down other things we look at the participation rate. Okay. Fine. Median duration down back down lower. Again. I mean, this eliminates any talk about a rate cut, doesn't it should. I think you know. Actually, I think the fed you might argue somewhat from the past might say, oh my gosh. Are we setting up policing problem? I said quietly sharing this kind of thing because this tells you maybe we can fly at a higher altitude without having to worry about a place Browns. Pretty impressive news. I think the I think economists are quietly baffled that we continue to get Sperry strong job growth when the working age population is growing so slowly fifty thousand month, it's phenomenal. Pockets of strong market and pays going up. People are gonna come in come in and look for something. So let's talk about that. Jim some economists have come on this program, and we can't keep printing hundred K. It's too much. It's too much that was three years ago. We still, Yep. You know, we don't know what we do know is in this recession. They were just a lot of people who gave up and disappeared a lot of more young adults, by the way. So we know that they're never hidden populations. Hidden unemployment coming back in. We thought that we were through the end of that. Well, we don't know is what about immigration. We don't get very good date on immigration. But I bet you anything stories from clients they're calling bringing people from Bosnia Becca start. I'd see so many people coming from there. It may be that when people here there's our jobs to do here. Right. Start to draw people in and that could be part of what's going on lesson. Thank you so much with J P Morgan, John. I just wanna thank equities pretty much flat. Maybe with a little up, but what I'd really is dollar strength and yields a backup nicely two basis points on the ten year back away from a session high still clan clinging onto the Ninety-Eight handle on the dollar index. Talked about yields tries to raise a little bit. Hi to faces points at two point five six three percent on TV enough. I single by six point two two point three five nine percents. The market continues to digest the payroll. We're gonna continue the conversation. We can do that with Jeff books city of funding manager on BlackRock systematic sixteen come Tate. Great to catch up with Jeff you. I rate on the payrolls for place. Great to see you guys. I read is, you know, it's a it's a strong report. It continues to tell the story of strong growth in the labor market without pressuring inflation. That's a little bit of a weaker number point two versus point three expectations in terms of hourly earnings year over year three point two percents. You had these strong numbers in terms of payroll growth without really pushing up the acceleration. I think this just continues a sequence of of strong reports in the labor market and not really pressuring on the inflation, Tom, you mentioned a minute ago about, you know, the inflation narrative, I think Powell put a pin in that. At earlier this week, and certainly nothing out of this. What is gonna is gonna raise concerns on the lie is their insatiable desire. We always look at yield and price in that. But Jeffrey, Rosenberg the fact is people are issuing paper and the demand for it. I'm going to use a non-pro word is insatiable that keeps yields down. Let's begin with square one. Why is there an insatiable demand for fixed income paper? Well, there's a lot of reasons behind that, Tom. I mean, you you have a you have a supply demand issue. And it's it's not new it's been going on for a long time. And it's not just about the US. This is about global savings about global demand for fixed income that's a secular trend part of that is driven by demographics part of it is is is driven by the lack of yield in the rest of the world pursuing zero negative interest rate policies that makes our levels vary. Attractive yield call. And I mean seriously in that you're not. In the forecast business working at by side BlackRock, but two point five six, and it feels like an economy that says three point zero zero to me, and yet we're not there are we what's your what's your call twelve months out on tenure yield. Do I think that what we are in in this environment? And I think the more important data around. Today's report is on the inflation side rather than the headline. Where is the debate? The debate is centered around the inflation outlook today's a little bit helpful. It doesn't accelerate the inflation outlook, and it certainly helps to stem some of the concerns about too little inflation. But that's the environment that we've been in and we've been talking about. And we'll talk about later today in the Hoover institute, and we get the headlines from policymakers discussion about changing the framework to how do you deal with very low inflation in that kind of environment? The reason for such low levels of interest rates is there's an expectation that central Bank policy makers are gone. Gonna be much more willing to cut interest rates than they are to raise interest rates because of the fear of inflation going downward, and that's what's pushing downward interest rates. I think that as we get through U S twelve month outlook as we get through this low level one and a half percent is where inflation is running our forecast. See that not in the near turn out in the next three months. But by the end of the year, we're going to be around one eight one nine on that favored measure by the fed core PC, and in that kind of environment you could pick up modestly higher in terms of interest rates Jeffey Rosenberg Jeffrey Rosenberg with BlackRock. And we continue. I can't say enough, folks. If you don't have a Bloomberg terminal, you will get one only for t- live go. It is outstanding in the esteem Scott Landman right now writing their Jeff Rosenberg this puts historic perspective on the moment. The jobless rate falls to a fresh forty nine year. Low of three point six percent that wasn't in. In your textbooks at Carnegie Mellon. What is three point six percent? Unemployment rate mean to President Trump. Well, it's obviously, very good news. Now, the details around that unemployment and a big drop in terms of the workforce. And you know, some people will will certainly highlight maybe technically driven. But the fact is is we are at historic low levels of unemployment as low as they've been since the nineteen sixties, and it's indicative of where the economy is very strong labor markets very extended cycle in terms of the economic expansion. But without the inflationary consequences that we saw in that last period of very low unemployment rates, mid nineteen sixties inflation de anchored. And you had the origin story of the fed popping the bubble of inflation expectations. Very different story for very different reasons this time, but that's what the low. Okay. Telling you within TI go, Jeff Rosenberg. I know you've been on t live go written up with your comments many times the gentlemen Torsten slack of Deutsche Bank. He's got a three three words cents. Here of analysis. Powell was right. If Powell was right? Why is he getting so much grief from the president of the United States? Well. He was wrong before he was right? Okay. Thank you. Well, said expected that December move was the policy mistake. So he was right to pivot is Torsten talking about it. And that's that's what has occurred here. And that is correct. And you certainly see the market and the economy responding to the easing in financial conditions from the pivot from Powell back on January fourth after recognize recognizing belatedly with the markets help that the increase in in December was misplaced Zeltner our team putting out that census bureau blip here that we see this month in private payrolls is MS enter at Morgan Stanley mentioned is important was still buoyant two hundred thirty six thousand we are thrilled Jeffey Rosenberg's with us black BlackRock. We'll continue. We're gonna synthesize. One of our reporters called it. A Goldilocks report, we will synthesize Goldilocks report into the greater picture of equity and bonded. We can do that Mr. Rosenberg of BlackRock futures up ten now of twelve Dow futures up one oh nine yield two point five five percent. And on this thing report, we've got.

Jeffey Rosenberg Jeffrey Rosen Tom Kaine Jeffey Rosenberg Powell Bloomberg BlackRock Glassman United States Vinnie Donncha New York Dwight Eisenhower Jeff Torsten slack J P Morgan Bosnia Hoover institute
"torsten slack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

09:43 min | 3 years ago

"torsten slack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"John what's your observation on the data screen right now that we've had a really good run up in risk assets that seven straight days of gains coming into Monday with just a little bit self this morning. No real drama hit with down around about a tenth of one percent. The market's terrible. There's a wall worry Dow up thirteen point three percent SMP up fifteen point four percent. Nasdaq composite all in. It's a terrible year rounded up two zero twenty percent year today the dates when America's pretty good still holding up pretty well kit that view on Friday, I want to vamp here. And then you bring in our sting guest. What's great about? Some of these guests is they'll put like a seven pager eight page paper. Or you hate them because you have to read them, and they'll do that. Like once a year once every eighteen months, and then there's animals of economics that delivered. Well, yeah. Or even I'll go with twice every six months and one of them is Torsten slack where ego. Damn and he's with us now. Yeah. Toast in slugged or managing director and chief international economist good morning tea, Tillerson. I'm proud to be then economics at the animal of economic. Do. You have any kids. Have it though? He's name is Joey Joey in France. That's very kill. That is very cool. Okay. I'm told have to let go the Catholic. The hate mail is off the chart. You'll get I'm good. Okay. Let's talk about Federal Reserve independence, shall we toast, and how many clients roskin you about that subject right now. Benny it's it's really a game changer. I mean normally the profile from semen by someone who work in community Bank in Wall Street Bank on the buy side, in some cases, with Kurita also wasn't academia, all it is which has been a longtime. Some will dean professor in monetary policy. And that's why. The new candidates have somewhat different profile. So what do you say to clients when they ask you about it that it's really difficult to assess to what extent this is going to make a change what he said, this is going to be a big difference. The thing that we often talk a lot about that in emerging markets. You know, I used to work at the IMF emerging markets, many central banks, basically have lead us vet. I've in some cases, family members of the president's sometimes basically people who put it against all to do certain things. The fed has an incredible amount of independence and incredibly high level of credit busy. So in that sense with the big boat. Changing a few posts is that gonna make a big difference? We really go and turn the fed into some emerging market central Bank. That does not seem to be likely if anything, let's expose ended up bit further operationally. The Federal Reserve is very much independent by definition. It is but the perception of independence, I think is important and a perception of independence will be defined. And by people like you people listening to this program market participants. If they believe optically, something has changed, then something ultimately little change in a marquee. I see very little sign of that right now agree, but I do want you view on it. Absolutely. So the academic literature, kooky amount and others have tried to show. What is central Bank independence? And how do you measure that exactly? That is really at the core of this issue. Is this going to compromise independence that we are? Now getting someone who might be multiple motivated on the on the committee. So we get into British view actual descent. We're gonna have like six to tour. Whatever the vote is what's? So what of that? I mean sense. Good, right. Absolutely. The other problem, of course, is certainly grew during the moment by groupthink, and that sense is really so bad to get new ideas. New thoughts the discussion that is what kind of new ideas and should someone have anomaly saying we only like that other take your point that the new ideas may be controversial excetera, but to the point of. King joining or Mr. Moore joining is well, how far are we from where they actually have. This dreaded word power and the answer miles away. Right. So so the staff at the fed is probably the Reggie is extremely powerful. So in that sense of fat rides the notes staff. The knows staff makes everything in terms of preparations. It really remains to be seen. If this becomes a challenge. But it really is back to the discussion of well, Willie compromise credit because you're not in markets as we just talk John was mentioning really haven't shown much signs of being overly worried, as at least Tern premia don't rates have not all matters here is whether Mr. Moore, Mr. Qena, the echoes building have Bloomberg's on their desk. What matters is what did they get approved asked many many of us. We just in terms of the perception of independence has it been damaged the answer to that is no then following question is is it because you don't think they will be confirmed because Behrmann they haven't been officially nominated as yet. Do you think they'll get confirmed given three different versions of no last Friday? I think to some degree to a small degree the has been some hypocritical analysis of the events of the last couple of weeks once upon a time president Barrack Obama wanted to nominate Larry Summers they form a democrat Treasury Secretary to run the Federal Reserve just think about that for a moment. It's not normal that people want that guy with that political strife. Types in the Federal Reserve. I think what's so different about this new touched on it. And it's the caliber of the people that are being nominated. It is not that they have different experiences. The level of that experience Herman Cain and Stephen Moore on of the caliber of rich Clarita. They don't they aren't the intellectual heavyweights of what came before them the Stanley fishes that Janet Yellen is that a bad thick. Well, if you I in the economic community, you think that that's definitely not go to and that's not the right characteristics. This you is that at the end of the day fete decisions have political consequences. So in that sense, the fit is in several ways. As a political institution that has a number of impacts on whether they going into that from that angle. Does it? Okay. Sitting on their only of wouldn't it be good for diversity to also have at different views your team in with Peter Hooper in torsos luck. And the rest is the fed in analog to a seven forty seven pilot. He'll gets paid three times a year to do something. That's really serious about saving the flight integrity. Or is it a day to day months? Two months meeting to meeting integrity that we're talking about. So this is of course, really important because a lot of things happen in principle. So in principle, you might have you all would like to see these characteristics as John also mentioning, but then as a day from meeting to meeting does it really make a big difference as you said, oh, that's interesting. Have plenty of dissent. We haven't seen descend at the fed for a long long time. So and that's ends the group think is faded pronounced. That's not to say that these the right candidates or wrong candidates or anything else to say that it's pretty from an economic of inflation has been below two for a very very. Longtime policies have not been able to generate inflation. Now, we're talking about average inflation targeting some attempt of trying to get inflation if they sneak up, but the big backup still here is that the fed has succeeded in some friends, and we all have to be honest with ourselves they also enough areas where if to wrap this up, and you've just touched on it right now. And I think is the most important point the most important point is the moment in time that we are currently in the backdrop right now is favorable to have candidates that are talking about cutting interest right because inflation is below target. It's not something that the market is going to be uncomfortable with that you have to adopt regardless of intent, and regardless of motivations and objectives. When the backdrop looks like it does right now, I think the issues the problems reveal themselves in adverse conditions at a time. And we approach this time anytime soon, but at a time of crisis. That's when the intellectual capacity the Federal Reserve for reveals itself, it's not right now is it toss them as true. But at one very important point. And that is Tom spoken about. For years. I mean, the Phillips curve have we essentially misunderstood what drives inflation if it has essentially misunderstood that. It may not be that the two candidates now understand inflation process bitter. But at least they're pointing out some things that say, well, maybe if there is more room before we begin to see inflation. Maybe the intellectual Varados that we've been using all these years is actually flawed. That's not. But of course, most of the people out there in the community believes, but the bottom line here is that some of the understanding the inflation process, and the fears of inflation we've had fall while might have been displaced, and maybe someone coming around and saying, hey, the emperor might not have too much new clothes here. We should be also thinking about what maybe there is something to the argument that inflation was not as big of a worry as we all including myself happy word about quite some time Tursun. Thanks. I don't you Bank with unfed chat. We'll get the really connects here at some point to your very important point. Joe nobody's been nominated. You not officially now. Frankly that needed to be said is we go there. What's the next meeting? I don't even I got ta Tillerson's got the whole schedule. Minutes this way. Maybe once it this week so tell we the never a dull moment here fishers to Dow futures thinking to seventy one fractional lift yields this morning don't want to oversell that. From New York City is John homeland security secretary. Here's did Nielsen resigns at President Trump's request at a meeting with.

Federal Reserve John president Stephen Moore Dow Torsten slack America France Joey Joey New York City Janet Yellen Kurita Peter Hooper Benny managing director professor IMF Tillerson
"torsten slack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

09:27 min | 3 years ago

"torsten slack" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Thank you so much pulse. When here with Tom Keene, Tom the biggest emanate deal and a pharmaceutical business, which is they've seen a lot of big emanate deals in the time Bristol-Myers acquisition of cell, gene. Looks to be in trouble shareholders coming out against the deal. I think most notably Wellington who typically has does not come out against deals is not an activist. But they certainly came out against this deal cell. Gene was down nine percent yesterday to eighty two dollars versus the deal price of one hundred one dollars. So there's a lot of doubt in the marketplace about this deal. So to dig down a little bit deeper, we go to my number one source for all things farm, and that Sampras Ellie sandwiches senior pharmaceutical analyst at Bloomberg intelligence covers all things big farmer for a long time. He's based out of London. He joins us on the phone Sam, thanks for joining us. The question really is just at this point is does this deal even get done. Hi, paul. Thank you for the nice things. You said I think it's very difficult to say the the deal did for for a couple of reasons the total voting power talk. It said it put it that way, including Wellington dodge. And Cox starboard is only around twelve percent there were there abouts. So we're quite away off from them being able to block the deal on their own. Of course, no management team would like to have one of the best known healthcare. Investors e Wellington getting away or suggests that the deal is not a good one. What's interesting politician? Look at that. You'll find that dodge and Cox and Burlington are the only shareholders who do not have a shareholding in both companies. So then not benefiting from the from the inside at the end of the day. We've done some research. We've looked at it and talked about it and said look what what's the alternative. If you believe the company needs to do a deal on that many other options, which would have given them the sort of EPS lift that says giving them in the cash for the James giving them. So what is it saying that the markets don't like about this? Do you? Remember when the deal was announced was not well received. So what's the problem here? No. So he's got a patent expiry ahead of it. So basically their biggest drug which is rarely made for a type of blood cancer. He's set to lose patent protection in twenty twenty two timeframe. And do you cannot be modeled because we know how these things go when they go when they expire. But that hasn't been at risk, and there's still a risk, and, you know, very, well that one of our own colleagues here BI old gear soccer has been looking at this that there is a risk to the public could be challenged earlier than that. And we keep looking at it. It's you can't easily probability in these things. But there's that that risk out there, nevertheless, victimizes, buying an asset that whose main source of revenue is going to decline. So it's going to be a calculation of how much revenue can you get out of it before it disappears in Paul don't mention the dreaded D word. I mean, Bristol Myers is non debt is you can ever get. I believe it's eight percent long-term, maybe even less than that. I'll let you decide facility and cell gene is loaded to his eyeballs in debt. Plus, I believe to make this thing go. There's an added debt overlay is. Well. If traditional BMI shareholder apoplectic. But so we've looked at that Tom and also given the cash flow that they're going to get out of the combined business. We don't think that it is an unmanageable one. But certainly it's much bigger number than they have ever had. Jump into this is critical. But culturally does the B M Y, button-down Wellington Belton suspenders crew. Do they want all that dirty debt itself? All yeah. It's a Sam. Well, we'll knows. I mean, a lot of these deals when they come together there's a lot of debt at the beginning. And you know, it's a question of can they service that dead? And I know a lot analysts investors think they can in here, but management often states, as you know, Tom that they're going to pay down debt that's going to be one of their big. Plus the posted we see it all the time. Comcast loaded on a bus, AT and T. Okay. But since I got a three percent yield on dividend. B Y. I got mutt. Below par. Dividend growth, I've got no dividend. Itsel djing. All you're giving me his debt. Right. Right. Right. So I mean, that's because that's the way the company was was being run as more of a biotech company. But at the end of the day, see, I think the. The the equation that has to be solved here is our people happy with them is as go alone. As it was, you know, we've considered that in a note that we wrote it wasn't that bad. It was middle of the road. Peer group type of growth. Peer group and below valuation. So the issue they're going to have to deal with people have to deal with is whether they want this added, you know, cash flow and potential for that that salaries pipeline brings which is where there's also a lot of controversy. Do you think there might be? If the deal is, you know, it's unlikely to break per se. Do you think there's any odds for them to restructure, maybe some of the terms here? I don't I don't think that there is much. You know, changing was trading at a single digit PE multiple for the reason. Because a lot of people are worried about that. And also the risk of the pipeline. So when Bristol Myers came to buy it. It wasn't on paper. You can immediately. Make it a creative in terms of an APS going, right? So at the end of the day, though, these guys have got to make a decision as shareholders to make a decision. What do we want Mr. minds on its own because there aren't that many other viable alternative Dr little biotechs that they can buy lower valuation at higher valuations lower cost. In terms of total value, and they can do lots of talking deals, but at the end of the day, do I'm my happy with Bristol as as or do. I want them to to do something transformational. This is as as you gets. Okay. Sam facility think so much what a clinic there and B M Y cell, gene. And there's like eight other major deals right now. I'm most focused on we haven't done any work on this Paul CVS. I'm fascinated because CBS was the ultimate that was the Danaher of retail drugstores and all that it was just like truly like a Swiss watch. Yeah. And then they make this transformational deal for Aetna. Who who do we hate the most right now in terms of like ruining the weekend? Torsten slack. Who is your Bank brilliant economist Michael Barr. Torsten slack sends out an Email on Fridays called weekend reading here. I may not be able to walk vet Bill. How about how the ATM affects the way we pay. How about trade exposure in the evolution of inflation dynamics? How about do the EC B's monetary policies benefit of merging market economies? How about leaving the library for you like that movie? Horse. He could keep me going the whole weekend nerd alert. I mean is that is serious mistook basketball. What's Duke doing this week? They're hosting the university of Miami. We're we're okay. This is Miami of anyone over six three. They're they're pretty good. They're pretty good football. But they're pretty. Oh, okay. Okay. You know? I mean, do you killed it right now? Right to say that on this show Dow up two hundred and five points. This is Bloomberg. Let's get national headlines right now with Michael Barr. Welcome michael. Thank you very much. Tom Democrats are sorting through a torrent of information provided in the public testimony from president Donald Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen democratic caucus chairman Akeem Jeffrey says they need deeper investigation into the allegations from Cohen's testimony. We have to allow the Muller investigation to run its course. And then for the Muller reports of the issue we have to allow the southern district of New York's investigation to run its course simultaneously. We can begin our oversight responsibilities. Meanwhile, house minority leader Kevin McCarthy is blasting Democrats for having Cohen testify on Capitol Hill Wednesday as the president had a high stakes meeting with North Korea's leader in Vietnam. The idea that we could not postpone that we could not show the rest of the world that America stands together to denuclearize North Korea. I think there was another misstep by this majority. Meanwhile. Cohen will return to the house intelligence committee next week for more testimony. President Trump is said to have ordered his chief of staff to grant son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, a top secret security clearance. Kushtia denies the New York Times report Washington governor Jay Inslee has joined the race for the twenty twenty democratic presidential nomination. Global news twenty four hours a day on air and tick tock on Twitter powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. Michael barr. This is Bloomberg. I'm not gonna take so much up to thirteen twenty six thousand one thirty six.

Tom Wellington Michael Barr Bristol Myers Bloomberg Paul Gene Bloomberg intelligence Sam Michael Cohen Tom Keene Cox starboard analyst London dodge BMI soccer Wellington Belton
"torsten slack" Discussed on 760 KFMB Radio

760 KFMB Radio

10:32 min | 3 years ago

"torsten slack" Discussed on 760 KFMB Radio

"There you go. Listen Mana broken clocks right twice a day. And that's nice that he came out and said that because most of the time he's the person saying that Trump got elected because of a whitelash and white people are racist. And you know, kids aren't allowed to be you know, to live in America. Historical stuff, and that that is a universally good thing. And it's a shame that the president is never going to get any credit for people want to believe, whatever it is that that Cohen's gin and ups and the are racist, not all people of color. They're in imprison. But obviously, these these moves have benefited communities of color who have feel like they are disproportionately represented inside the incarceration of our of our prison system. But you know, who's getting the backlash Mark meadows. Over the thing yesterday. Yeah. Mark Mark meadows called out Rashida to leave and said, he's not racist. Because he's got he's got black family members. And he's not a racist. Because he's got friends who are black and all that sort of stuff. And what I guess, I guess what MSNBC went unearth. It's always MSNBC. Let me tell you something if CNN actually I'm gonna I'm just gonna I'm going to reserve. My my words. MSNBC MSNBC is a force for ill in our culture, in my opinion. Here's what MSNBC earth, and listen, it's not like they made the video. This is this is Mark meadows saying these these things go and play it is it really that bad though. Dow's in twelve is the time that we're gonna send Mr Obama home Kenya. Wherever it is. Now, they're calling that racist. Well, everything's I mean, sure, it's defacto it's racist. It's always do. I believe in birtherism. No when it comes to Obama. No. But I don't see that necessarily is being racist. Well, MSNBC does NSMBC sets the tone for social Justice movements in our country. This bothers me greatly to US army soldiers tried to sell stolen weapons and explosives to members of the Mexican drug cartel. What Tom more service members are involved in the conspiracy. According to Newsweek, former US army explosive ordinance disposal specialist Tyler someone and sergeant first class. Jason w Jarvis were charged with eight felony counts in December, including transferring firearms to an out of state resident conspiracy smuggled goods from the United States and transporting explosive materials without a license. The pair started planning the sale honor before June of twenty eighteen according to this indictment. Jarvis is assigned to Fort Bragg, North Carolina. He rented a Chevy Tahoe. In November loaded the vehicle with explosives and. Firearms and other military items and drove them to Inverness Florida to meet someone there. The men combine their weapons wiped them clean and put them in storage containers, then drove to El Paso, Texas together, where they thought they were meeting the sellers who are going to pay them seventy five thousand dollars. Instead they were arrested by undercover agents with homeland security investigations the agents seized thirty two rifles three handguns silencers five pounds of c four explosive at hand grenade. Someone in a Facebook post said he was arrested for quote doing some things I shouldn't have been doing. I really messed up my future along with the future of anyone who is remotely affected by my life. I am not looking for anyone's pity. I did the crime. Now, I'm gonna do the time. Now, we have heard all this stuff. Said about the. About the need for for background checks and investigations and things like that. But somebody explained to me what gun law would have stopped these guys in the military from from stealing thirty two rifles three handguns silencers five pounds of c four and a hand grenade. You're not allowed to possess a hand grenade. C four silencers the three handguns and the thirty two rifles, obviously government property. Along with the other stuff. But I mean, how do you how do you account for that in in the laws because I'm not going to go out and buy C for because I don't think C four is going to be useful in defending my property against a robber. I'm not going to purchase a silencer because frankly, I prefer to have the bad guy. Here the round go off. I just like, I don't I don't get how the gun laws that are going to restrict you, and I who who are law abiding. Owners of firearms. How how how are how are we going to be made safer by by these laws being on these books because criminals are going to go by him from these kinds of guys? Someone told agents that he was aware that the firearms we're going to be sent to Mexico. He said he was gonna earn twelve thousand dollars from the sale. Jarvis told authorities. He was gonna earn two thousand dollars. So these guys were going to do all this for fourteen thousand dollars destroy your future fourteen thousand dollars. Now, somebody notes in this story. I think it's interesting. They say they don't understand how this got through inventory checks in aviation ordinance in the navy. You inventoried every shift and quarterly inventories from the wing. This person is wondering whether or not there must have been more people than these two guys involved. Who knows I mean, this is the problem? This is this is a huge issue and all the gun laws that you can come up with and put on the books are not gonna they're not gonna stop these criminals. They're not going to stop criminals from getting guns, man. It's just that's just how it's going to be. We have laws on the books that prevent the counterfeiting of hundred dollar bills. And there are you know, there's there's a huge surge of hundred dollar bills in circulation right now. That are fake. They don't know there's a surge in hundred dollar bills. And they think that it may be linked to what they call global corruption. The number of hundred dollar bills in circulation has skyrocketed in the past decade. It could be a troubling indicator for global corruption is high denomination bills. Remain a Goto for criminals, given the anonymity and the lack of a transaction record. I mean you ever if you ever you ever go to buy something with a hundred dollar Bill. That's just a hassle. You have to put up with. I've done all the time. I've done it many times. The amount of hundred dollar bills is now surging the number of outstanding hundred dollar bills has doubled since the financial crisis with more than twelve billion one hundred dollar bills across the world while. Twelve billion bills that twelve billion in twelve billion hundred dollar Bill twelve trillion. Twelve billion times a hundred would be twelve hundred billion dollars worth one point two trillion in cash. That according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve notes have passed one dollar bills in circulation. There are more Hon does than once we need to dollar bills out there exist combine them, I think so Deutsche Bank chief international economist Torsten slack. Said it ain't no to his clients this week. Generally, economists believe the surge is related to people around the world wanting to hoard cash a similar force. That's driven the interest in John's favorite crypto currency high-denomination. High value currency notes have historically been a preferred form of payment for criminals, given the anonymity, etc. That I mentioned nNcholas colas co-founder of data trek research has been down the rabbit hole topic for more than a decade says the growth in hundred dollar bills in circulation is a signal the world is relying on them as a store of value and still using them for international crime. So knowing that this is like a haven for international crime. Does it freak you out that you walk around with with C notes and that they've been connected to crime. Maybe. Well, no because that would be like ask you all aren't you free? You may get cocaine on your on your on your hands or something because there's cocaine on ninety percent of a bills out there is that really true. Yeah. That's true. That's why I wear. That's why we're these latex gloves hands all the time. And this mask is protected from the coca I don't want the cocaine. The problem though. Okay. So let me ask you this. When you're carrying your hundred dollar bills. You got him in those hundred you've got them in those one hundred stacks one hundred the one hundred hundred dollar Bill stacks is that what you walk around without keeping one hundred all time while we? Yeah. He's waiting. He's keeping one hundred. It's unbelievable. That's right. Do you ever told them around like in a briefcase with a with a with a handcuff on your hand, you know, like a handcuff briefcase like one of those would like yours super super important banker. Yeah. No wonder people were giving me that look on that sixty hour train ride from young to. So do you know he's not back yet, by the way? And somebody observed that somebody observed, and I don't know if this is on Twitter Facebook that that his Kim Jong UN's aides are working overtime to erase all the match libs can do on the way back. Hey, do you think someone's getting killed over there because they didn't work out a deal? You think? When. They they have like they probably have a they probably have like a beating room where he gets to go, and he gets to put these puts on like like a fat suit like a protective suit and gets like Spar datum Spar Faris can I just tell, you know, the Kim Jong UN, right? You know, he's the kind of guy that brings in all kinds of weird performers to do like weird feats of strength. Like the guy lays the guy lays with like a. With like a cinderblock on his chest. And a guy stands over on with like a with a big sledge hammer. Breaking the cinderblock on his chest. And he has like he'll hire. I'll bet you. I'm willing to believe that this is true. I'll bet you Kim Jong UN has greyhound dogs and specially trained monkeys that ride the greyhound dogs like little mini jockeys. And he races them around the compound. Oh, no, dude. No doubt. He's just like he's got kangaroos box in each other. He's got like he's got like eat out fighters doing. He'll heck. Yeah..

MSNBC Mark Mark meadows Kim Jong UN Jason w Jarvis Mr Obama US cocaine Facebook America Trump CNN president Federal Reserve El Paso Dow Chevy Cohen Kenya birtherism