20 Burst results for "Tony Dwyer"

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

03:08 min | 9 months ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"What are you pay for for infinity easing I? I mean, is it? My Multiple Assumption is twenty times. It'd be twenty, two twenty, four twenty five guys like making make these numbers up all day long, but again I think what I have to. To do is fall back to history and say okay. What is the pretend? What is the markets telling us when they get this broad and two guys point like I. Kind of felt scared a few weeks ago when we were upgrading as Stan was saying, it's the you know craziest market of all time, but the momentum is there I think the momentum is. Is probably played its course because again this the second half of this rally off of that March low was in different stocks so now you really have kind of to whole segments of stock market. That's had a hell of a run. It may be time again to go sideways versus that down big or up big just for the next month or two. Tony Great to speak with you. Thanks for having me mouths last Tony Dwyer Canaccord genuity. Tim. Seymour I'll go to you on Friday. We had a special show at six o'clock on Bass, money five, and in those we do. If the market were song. What would it be and I wonder given that the rally has extended itself. And we are at record levels of the Nasdaq. If you want to change your song selection. Good point so to remind our audience who are tuning in at six o'clock, which is a great time to turn into fast money every once in a while over the summer. I chose the clashes. Should I stay or should I go and I referenced? If I stayed, there will be trouble and if I go, it could be double and my point was. This is a market that a lot of people of Mrs. Been Wall of. Of worry a and you don't necessarily want to hang on here because we're all talking about fundamentals being challenged, but there's a lot of money managers that get fired when they're missing a bull market, especially after a massive bear market, not being in the market is where people have a lot of problems, so no I wouldn't change it. Obviously, you know what we did on Friday with something I didn't think we could can continue to do. Even today just on a short term basis. It looks very overbought. But that song, which isn't one of their best, but I think it's still says a lot. And then you've got a lot of blowback on twitter for the choice of it's. Sort of your like it's not the best song, but anyway guy. I'll go to us well. You're a great band and they've done better than that. All Right? That's that's fair. Guy. Would you amend your Song Choice? I love my song choice the clashes that the most overrated band of all time in my opinion and I want to mend, but I'll add to you Tom. Petty Fan I know. Tim is out of Jackie. Correct him. while. Give you one DNA. Lucky sometimes you go. I'm sorry what was hanging. Buddy! Reason to Tom Petty. Tro Even the losers get lucky sometimes. Okay. HEARTBREAKERS! Coming.

Tom Petty Tim Tony Great twitter Tony Dwyer Canaccord Mrs. Been Seymour Stan
"tony dwyer" Discussed on WTOP

WTOP

01:37 min | 11 months ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on WTOP

"This is a Bloomberg money minute how and when the U. S. economy actually opens it is really anyone's guess but blue chip planemaker Boeing is taking the first few steps in that direction today the company is re opening its Seattle area commercial aircraft assembly plants about twenty seven thousand people are returning to work for now just to talk of an economic re opening it's been enough to send stock prices higher the market as shown weekly gains in each of the last two weeks that's the first time that has happened since February but chief strategist Tony Dwyer over at Canaccord Genuity worries the market may be getting ahead of itself I'm having a hard time maintaining the current level of rally in the market without some kind of economic underpinnings once again this week investors will be closely watching the government's report on the first time jobless claims and reports on new and existing home sales may give us an idea of the pandemic's impact on the housing market from the Bloomberg news room I'm Denise Pellegrini on WTOP it's two fifty six who wants to come I do thanks don't thank me they need of Americans native Americans gave me chewing gum I didn't know that yes they also give you parkas and canoes and snow levels dobies and chaps electroplating really so many things like cross ham makes baby bottles and compass camouflage aspirin aspirin I don't know that either yep and hi axioms maple syrup syringes umbrellas vanilla freeze drying herbs peppers more it's a kick people dot org keeping popcorn if you're caring for someone with Alzheimer's disease the Alzheimer's foundation of America helpline is open seven days a week to answer questions.

Boeing Seattle Tony Dwyer Canaccord Genuity Denise Pellegrini Alzheimer Bloomberg chief strategist aspirin America
Should I Be Freaking Out About All This Recession Talk?

CNBC's Fast Money

06:14 min | 1 year ago

Should I Be Freaking Out About All This Recession Talk?

"Tony Dwyer is here. He's chief market strategist at Canaccord genuity. Tony Welcome and you're saying you think we have had some the mini recessions but they're over now and it's clear sailing on on the show a few weeks ago we actually we called for a correction classic strategy and I I called it right but we you know it's it's John the Airways so it was a few weeks ago that we thought that the sentiment got bad enough and that some of the data was already discounted that it was especially on the ten tenure no yield dropping the ten year yield. It was time to get more offensive so the supporting evidence to that in the mini recession call is if you look back at two thousand eleven two thousand twelve when the pigs were there and Greece was going to get knocked out of the euro and the euro was going to break up. That's as bad as a trade war right so the ten year. No you'll got back below one and a half percent percents what was interesting is not tober. Two thousand eleven the stock market bottom down nineteen point six percent the tenure didn't bottom until July of that year so in that meantime the S. and P. early twenty two percent led by the defensive into the ten year yield low in July off their you went up up and additional thirty eight percent two until the ten year got over three and three percent so the whole point here is offense should be on the field not because I have some great economic prognostication Asian but all signs are that the ten year made allow and if that's true it's replicating the two thousand eleven twelve two thousand fifteen sixteen period. Were there was clearly an industrial recession or are you making a call about the ten year going back to three percent or above or I think it will go back to two and a half percent. Nobody on the Planet Planet Kelly thought that we were going to go back to one and a half percent at this point ten years into a cycle right so what I think is happening is going back and looking at the nineteen fifty sorry to do it to you going back and looking at the nineteen fifties. There were four recessions from one thousand nine hundred forty nine thousand nine hundred sixty one. They were very brief. The market only went down about twenty percent each time time and then the market went rip into new highs very similar to now and I think technology just in time inventory. More consumption is a percentage. GDP is preventing that official recession but clearly were having these mini recessions driven by global industrial output and maybe hold argument over whether we are aren't going to have one on keeps confusing the picture because what's really happening. Is You have a bunch of growth scares you have quarters or GDP goes negative or almost goes to zero. You have market correction of ten to twenty percent but that's it's a different story than everyone who keeps bracing for. We're going to have another financial crisis in here. It comes again Tony. Let me ask you this. Though I mean think about what just happened in the last couple of weeks we've seen a major moderation in the talk about trade. We've seen massive stimulus in China. We've seen of stimulatory action by the. We've had this balance in rates. No one thought they were going to go down to one five or four or five or something like that. It just seems like we're in a spot here to get out of your mini recessions what we need to do ten years on from this economic crisis that we had. It seems like it's getting a little untenable isn't it. I mean that's the thing is it sustainable and the other point about getting back up to three thousand. It doesn't break out so what's the thing that breaks it out this time in a sustainable fashion. ECB totally disappointed in action last week there. They're coming. Terry in terms of what they were going to do to make sure that inflation got back to where they want it to be. As what drove rates in the market in the spike in the tenure they got ahead of it not by the raised by Blah Blah so I don't really care if it's twenty five or fifty basis points if they do fifty basis points on Wednesday and say we're done for the rest of the time. Market's GONNA get creamed right. They need to get ahead of the market. The highest interest rate cannot be the Fed funds rate right so what gets us over three thousand and that Dan again the the global economy's week. I'm not going to be the straps getting on here telling you oh it's good. It's getting less bad in the data. If you look at the purchasing managers there's breadth the purchasing managers index positive that's inflected off below the same thing with the OCD leading indicators competent leading indicators for the thirty six countries countries. They follow. It's inflicting off the low you can't have the market is a negative when you hit the highest level of all time but the sequential data's rolled over so that's a sale and then you hit the worst level fall time and the squinched out is getting better and that's a sale to right so. I think that the data is going to get better. Give us the playbook then what does it. What does it look like offense. I I mean Kelly. This is offense this everybody's meaning consumer discretionary financials industrials the motorcycle parts attack and again. This was our call from a couple of weeks ago where you get this reflation trade as long as the. Fed stays ahead of the curve and what shut this whole game people to put this on before their decision Wednesday. That's a big call. You make a caller. You don't know you know the views of fast money. No I'm not the greatest of all times but but again and the whole key to this thing is the Fed has to get ahead of the curve. They have to convince the market that we're not going to become Europe and go into negative I so I asked a salesperson today. Who I begged literally bagged two weeks ago. I did it on their please. Refinance your debt. Please one point four percent refinance your loan right right so I went over to the desk today I said. Did you refinancial no my my husband wants me to wait for lower rates okay. That's what the Fed wants to avoid read. Stop waiting for lower rates as low as it's going to get. Let's get in there so you know this kind of churning. We're seeing in the market today. I think has more to do with got extremely overbought in two two weeks right so maybe oil is an excuse and the Fed meeting who's going to really take an offensive playbook into bed meeting and I don't want. I don't want to suggest to to the to the viewers that I'm GonNa be calling the next tick. I'm awful at it. That's why should refinance. I think I think they they should refinance. You could have a pullback in rates. You know what's going to be interesting is to see how Saudi Arabia response to the oil crisis. You know it's not a news item or they blow up their biggest thing and they're like okay. We're good so I'm kind of waiting and to see what the global response is to the whole attack and that may create a temporary law. You can take advantage of and get offense. Thanks thank you

FED Tony Dwyer Tony Welcome Canaccord Genuity Greece Saudi Arabia China Tony Europe Official Terry Kelly DAN Ten Year
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

03:50 min | 1 year ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"I think the fed really got it right today because I feel like why move when you're going to get a lot lot lot more data by by July thirty and Steve. Touched on a lot of it. Plus, all the things that, you know, the G twenty and whether we have any kind of trade deal, also will really start to see earnings and to me, that's always the most important thing. This is a lot of noise around the most important thing, which is earnings, and what are the outlooks for the second half of the year. I think that to me is the most scary part. I you know, this is as worried as I've been I feel like we're say if a hundred percent priced in that we're is the side. If the economy does better than he has a Powell has a little bit of a of a safeguards. They doesn't have the race. So you have the economy doing better earnings doing better. So you still going to get the market rally if the Konami does it does worse than he can always cut. If trade a worse scenario where this market goes down. That makes no sense. There's one offs. Martin there's one offs. But can you put can you put any type of rationality on the bounce that we've seen from twenty seven to two in the SNP to now it's positioning people were so negative on the lows. Right. And now they had a catch up. Where where to position the other way volumes light inflation. There's no sign of inflation. The Phillips curve is dead. So you have global inflation nonexistent, Goldilocks is what you're saying. Man, I asked this question, and that is the last time we were at these levels on the S and P five hundred. How would you characterize the risk environment then versus now guy interesting? I mean, I don't think I think the risk exactly the same. The only thing that's changed. The commentary out of the Federal Reserve to me, this, pardon me closer. I think it's I'll push back on that. But okay, we can have we can agree to disagree. I think the only thing this changes affect commentary. So when I look at the quote unquote, smart money, and I, I would say that retail and folks that are long only in the wealth management, community and a big chunk if not the major chunk of the global asset base has actually been relatively Bush, but if you look at smart money, if you look at long short hedge funds, if you look at guys who are paid to basically assess risk, I think they've been badly short, maybe not net short, but they've certainly not been long. And if you look at one positioning of long short hedge funds word five year. We're five year lows in terms of net long position which tells me I actually think this could go a little higher. All right. So does the rally really need a rate cut and will we see one as soon as July? Let's bring in Tony Dwyer chief market strategist, a Canaccord Genuity Tony, great to have you with us. Should tell the audience remind them that your price target for the end of the year is twenty nine fifty. Yeah. Price target on valuation at this point in the year is kinda stupid, so we're focused on our thirty three fifty target for next year. And I think that might be a little bit too low as well. What happens between now and the end of next year to give us four hundred points to the upside inflation stays low. The fed gets easy to remember nine hundred ninety five analog it's playing out almost exactly from every angle that I can find it's almost exactly like that environment. So you don't go into a recession remembered that were up in different. I agree with most of the bears. Yes, the economy slowing it almost looks like it's going to go negative, that's the bull story. That's always been the bull story because it takes it takes rates down. And as long as you know, you're not going into recession that gives you upside and equities remember the average P E, multiple when cornflakes between one and three percent is nineteen times it was there for most to sixteen and seventeen..

Federal Reserve Steve Powell Bush Konami Tony Dwyer Martin five year hundred percent three percent
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

01:39 min | 2 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"A right now why the NASDAQ market sign. Overlooking New York City's Times Square, I'm Melissa Leo. Traders on the desk or pizza, Jerry and Tim Seymour. Brian Kelly died Dommie checkout. Shares of Micron. That's Acas volatile after reporting earnings moments ago that conference call is underway. We'll bring you all the latest details. Plus top strategist, Tony Dwyer says almost nothing will bring this rally to a screeching halt. You will explain why he is so bullish as stocks reach for all time highs, but we start off with the market stocks sinking. As the Federal Reserve saying that rate hikes are off the table for the rest of the year after a bit of whiplash. Ultimately, ending the day down nearly one hundred and fifty points. Take a look at some of the big movers. This is what really what we want to focus on the dollar. Got crushed. Choose five spreads taken a dive at checkout. Also, some of these sectors here tech stocks real bright spot than financials the big losers down more than two percents. So it's kind of like a game of choose your own adventure. Look at these charts and tell us what they are telling us about the markets. About the fed decision. What the fed is saying about the markets. Susan new game. Like your team. Like, your T leaves read them interpret them as you will give me today launch exciting adventure tea leaves. I'm gonna go escape in my lane. You know before this whole fast money thing. I actually had a real job and I used to make money. So I said what's going on here? And I said, wait a second. You know, the fed is gonna festively torture US dollar. They're going to continue. Rachel continue to go down to dollars. From your continues selloff central banks will probably continue to buy gold. I think the market.

Federal Reserve Tony Dwyer Melissa Leo New York City Brian Kelly Tim Seymour US Micron Times Square Jerry Rachel Dommie
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

03:49 min | 2 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"Rodney Dangerfield move to lousy actually they're very few good Roddy filled movies. If you want to their spending this much time on Rodney Dangerfield me. No respect central Bank seizing around the world has been a catalyst for markets to go higher without question, by the way, not to get off track. But I think that's one of the reasons we should still be doing what we're doing. We should still be moving forward. Because as everybody weakens their currency. We have an opportunity to strengthen our foundation and to strengthen our currency. I digress for second. I think at a certain point the the hit a point of minimum marginal returns in terms of central Bank actively I think we're pretty close. Now, you can only go to that. Well, so many times before the market starts to call you. And I think we're just about this. So let's go back to mega cap tech. The ones that do have international pressure. This is this has been brought up tweeted maga- cat strict sitting dollar a strengthened in dollar versus also globe global growth. That's weakening is actually going to be very bad mega cap tech. It's dollars going. And I mean, how does the dollar? Well, how is it for a while? I I think the dollar also has basically gone a one and a half percent in the last five sessions after also doing nothing, but for the last. I just don't know wrenching. You look at all the negatives. All with heads on hold for saying, you think the dollar's gonna rally into this. There's no way could row could rally just just immigration shift to the. Understandable. And by the way, but it's a big mistake. Discount the fed out for two thousand nineteen I think that the market has overestimated, the dovish nece and the fed they're still performing Cutie, and there's still a chance the hike. So then how growth so bad if we're underestimating the Fed's resolve to actually chase. What could be inflationary dynamics in the economy, which seems to be growing others. You can't have it both ways if the fed is in play. The economy's is if anything overheating performance UT though, so they're still removing liquidity from the market by the tune of four hundred billion per year. I don't I still this still at it. I don't know that people are thinking it's going to do that. And if anything part of the last rally for the market, probably the last two hundred s and p points was of you that Powell also no longer robotic on fifty billion coming off the balance sheet. I I think fed in neutral in this goes back to Jay z misters idle and what Melissa brought up about global central banks. I think taking tightening out of central banks arsenal right now in the show. Run means markets Atta very good backstop. But I know I think the Sheffer while welcome back for civil at all. Airplane? Subjects. You're not watching anything across the United States. Yes. Well, you're gonna ask me a question. What do I think about like you had a comment, and you go my comment is when we come to an impasse at this point of the show. Usually it's good to bring somebody in the consort of bridge that divide can sort of cut through all the nonsense guy. Like, Tony Dwyer would be perfect tonight might be able to really bridge both sides by the entry by the introduction that you gave me interesting also have a who is calling for new highs in two twenty nineteen because we're a little bit skeptical off. It's refreshing the host of the show be able to do shells so pay now exact ran Tony Dwyer Canaccord Genuity. He does say that new highs are head for the year. But don't buy just yet. Why? You get a reflects rally of a non recession crash, we got that Szekely thirteen percent. This was fifteen percents taking a little bit longer to get up to that fifteen percent. I'm really torn. I was just talking to Todd off air. I mean there there's a good case to be made for a bigger drop. And there's a great case to be made on the breadth thrust indicators for know rita's, so I'm kind of in this no man's land. Where I don't if anybody comes on set and tells you all this is going to happen. I think they're making it up. There's good data on both sides..

Fed Rodney Dangerfield Tony Dwyer Canaccord Genuity Tony Dwyer Roddy dovish nece United States Jay z Szekely Todd Powell rita Melissa thirteen percent fifteen percent
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

02:24 min | 2 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"And it includes problems in Europe. I'm going to continue to talk about Europe. I'm going to continue to talk about at least the the dynamic on trade the dynamic with the fed those things aren't going to change until four percent. So to your point about a flush. It's up four percent year to date the markets of the indices have given back. We talk on the accurate about its gains. I wanna see you got to see a flush. You can't tell me stock has been flushed when it's still positive on the year. Why? No, you've got to see a real. There's people holding on apple have you. Have you talked to people are they selling their apple yet? I'm still. I bought apple one hundred ninety after the last round earnings as far as I'm concerned has been flushed. So I mean, I wanted to one ninety most people bought it allow. You paid. People have not thrown in the towel with apple if apple restoring to tell you would see it. What is then what is the phrase towel split? Civil. Bought as Baillieu stock and as a growth stock in there. Split in value stock. So you need to see it be flush now people are still believing. Now, what price is a flesh. I think down twenty-five is fleshy still positive still positive. When the indexes are low flat to lower your is the triple bomb year. Why why why is it that we have to care about your today unless? Really? One guy is everybody. Ford bucks. Here's are you. Where are you over on the left? I don't know where am I. Listen, I don't think necessarily that being up down on the Europe. I mean to me flushes when you see three four times normal volume on a on a day where it makes it either new all-time lower new fifty two week low. And we haven't seen that did when we see a five times normal volume day apple then I'll said we've seen the flesh to Cairns point though. It's a pretty significant move to the downside. And if in waiting for the Seattle story, and I don't think it's fundamentally changed the way they're telling their story change. But the apple story itself hasn't one of Wall Street's biggest bowl says the bottom isn't in just yet. Tony Dwyer Canaccord Genuity joins us now. Tony one of the biggest bowls on Wall Street. Yeah. Getting. Tonight, bore you to death with that. I'm going to be bullish until the end of the cycle..

apple Europe Tony Dwyer Canaccord Genuity Ford bucks Baillieu Seattle Cairns point four percent fifty two week
Rick Pitino says in interview that "I'm finished coaching"

Tony and Dwight

00:22 sec | 2 years ago

Rick Pitino says in interview that "I'm finished coaching"

"Last a little clipper is just a few seconds. Rick Pitino talking to Doug Gottlieb on Fox Sports radio late last night about his life. Now the same question, I'm asking me before wouldn't the heck are you doing you're no longer coach? And so I get up in the morning at five thirty I put on my gym shorts. And I have no place to go. So I say that because I do miss it terribly says you'll never go back coaching.

Rick Pitino Michael Sokolov Basketball San It Doug Gottlieb The New York Times Magazine Tony Dwyer Louisville Fox Sports Tom Jerry Eight Forty W
Papa John's Schnatter making new claims of company corruption

Tony and Dwight

01:00 min | 2 years ago

Papa John's Schnatter making new claims of company corruption

"The drama meter is pegged when it comes to Papa John's pizza John Schneider claims that CEO. Stevie, Richie of accessing confidential information from, Schneider's computer files? To a pair of unnamed company underlings who were having. A fairy says Just keeps getting just, keeps, getting better, than, the CEO Steve Ritchie replies once again John is making untrue. Disparaging statements and self-serving attempt, to distract from the damaging impact his own words. And actions have had, on the company and stakeholders he. Really was to be on that pizza box does he. I mean what we say about a women's skirts SCO billionaire scorned. Yeah lookout cages, bus. And billboards to put your face on it on that note. Since we we've been talking about Rick. Pitino and John Schneider in the same light there's sort. Of the same person they don't can't figure out just we earn people's respect that's all you gotta do man at burn everything. To the

Rick Pitino Mike Mike Papa John Rainbow Bridge Tony Tony Dwight John Schneider Tony Dwyer Churchill Downs Mike It CEO Polio JCP Stacy Cps Jefferson County Louisville Twitter Football Eddie
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:11 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Tony dwyer where's the money gonna come from in order to make stocks move higher if there's no longer a central bank put it's gonna be in the corporate buybacks that's why it's so essential to have the credit markets open which is driven by the yield curve positive slope euchre because if you net out all other areas of equity investors it's basically flat so you take active versus passive it's basically flat for the whole cycle the only net adding addition to stocks is corporate buybacks get corporate five packs that doesn't that belie the theory that the money that's going to be repatriated to the united states because of tax reform is going to go into research development and more factories in fact what you just described as it's going to go back into the pockets of investors who typically you're going to end up saving the money not spending it it's going to go back into both it's not like a company just says okay we're gonna bring all our money back and just invested in stock they do the best thing not just for their shareholders but for their businesses so the history shows that yeah a lot of the money goes into buybacks and that's because that's what actually performs the best our friends in that davis did a great study that showed if you break down the s and p five hundred by five by quintiles the best performing quintiles are those that do the stock repurchase but that doesn't mean that's all they do i think that's a great you know tweet kind of thing but at the end of the day companies do the best thing to grow their share price and grow their businesses and that's why despite all the reasons i mean the reasons the cycled tom and pen that you could have been negative it could have been european debt crisis breakup up the euro could have been chinese real commodity crisis all of that has not mattered because there's enough growth in a quarter of the global economy in the us to drive earnings and those earnings are driving share prices tony which sector within technology which piece of technology offers the best risk reward ratio we don't break it down that much is you know tom are y you know i take software and services and i think just about all areas of technology do well when you have.

Tony dwyer united states davis tom
"tony dwyer" Discussed on KSFO-AM

KSFO-AM

01:39 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on KSFO-AM

"The financial engines research center and bill it's great to have you back on the show we have a lot to cover today is the great to be back thanks for having me bill again thank you for taking some time and and talking with here on investing sense what is your latest read on what's happening with the stock market right now while the market just wrapped up its first negative quarter since q three of two thousand fifteen and there was a lot of news flow in market activity to digest now we came out of the gate roaring a solid seven percent gain through the first four weeks of january it really looked like the smooth sailing experience in two thousand seventeen was just going to continue since then though it's been it's been an interesting eight or nine weeks following the most recent peak i think what might be most interesting it seems from week to week there's a new narrative for what's driving markets we see tony dwyer one of the best strategists in the business had a great take on this angle it began with interest rates rising back in late january it looked like the ten year yield is headed back to three percent investors were worried about inflation then trade policy came into play and the steel and aluminum tariffs concerns about a trade war with china we certainly seeing that continue to escalate everybody then started getting worried about tech regulation we had facebook's data privacy issues trump's amazon tweets and then the whole time we've also had some traders looking at the rise in library which is a key interest rate for global banks and derivative markets so bill among all these narratives do you favor any of these over another no i wouldn't say we favor one single explanation all of them have contributed to the pullback they all influenced investor behavior emotions can be a major driver of market activity honestly i think a case can be made for a simpler explanation and that's really just history right you know corrections happen it's a natural part of market cycles we enjoyed a steady rise last year with historically low volatility we set a record for.

tony dwyer china facebook amazon seven percent three percent four weeks nine weeks ten year
"tony dwyer" Discussed on WPRO 630AM

WPRO 630AM

01:44 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on WPRO 630AM

"The markets as being in motion well if if you have felt motion sickness from all of that activity then consider this show your dramamine we're going to calm your stomach help you understand what events are causing the motion and understand what you should do and the guy standing next to me andy smith he'll be doing that along with our first guest who we are so glad to have back on the show with us it's bill tracy villas a senior investment analyst and cfa charter holder at the financial engines research center and bill it's great to have you back on the show we have a lot to cover today is the great to be back thanks for having me bill again thank you for taking some time and and talking with us here on investing sense what is your latest read on what's happening with the stock market right now well the market just wrapped up its first negative quarters since q three of two thousand fifteen and there was a lot of news flow in market activity to digest now we came out of the gate roaring a solid seven percent game through the first four weeks of january it really looked like the smooth sailing experience in two thousand seventeen was just going to continue since then though it's been it's been an interesting eight or nine weeks following the most recent peak i think what might be most interesting it seems from week to week there's a new narrative for what's driving markets we'll see tony dwyer one of the best strategists in the business had a great take on this angle it began with interest rates rising back in late january it looked like the ten year yield is headed back to three percent investors were worried about inflation then trade policy came into play and the steel and aluminum tariffs concerns about a trade war with china we certainly seen that continue to escalate everybody then started getting worried about tech regulation we had facebook's data privacy issues trump's amazon tweets and then the whole time we've also had some traders looking at the rise in live which is a key interest rate for global banks and derivative markets so bill among all these narratives do you.

andy smith investment analyst tony dwyer china facebook amazon seven percent three percent four weeks nine weeks ten year
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

01:35 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"In exile up and it has been market leader we do know even chris talking about over the last eight years yield curve hasn't necessarily mattered we've had other guests tony dwyer talked about the fact even when the yield kurt and burt you still get eighteen months or so of positive returns so i think if any place i wanted to jump in it would be financial i think the the yield curve i obviously matters it's important but i think the variable of cost cutting the variable of deregulation if he will especially if these regional banks is super important to keep in mind so the the cost cutting structures for these guys the balance sheet freeing up from you know really constricting levels from before is a win win for them and i look at that and say that detail when my thanks and some of these larger names i totally agree with chris if you correlate twos tenths spread to back prices and you go back to two thousand six and seven and before the crisis these banks were on a flatter yield curve we're making a ton of money they're geared toward library there the low end of the curve so on that as i mentioned in the show i think that the downward sloping fifty day is not a disaster it just means that i think we've been in this longer its defining the trenton it's harder to certainly break higher i think it means it ensures you at this a little bit longer before you start to turn around all right still ahead does all this volatility have your head spinning we'll don't panic because guy he's got three simple steps to trading a wild market you will break down if you break that down later on this show twitter tanking today entering a bear market after short seller andrew left slammed the social media giant will hear the comments that sent that stock reeling much more fast money right after that.

chris tony dwyer kurt twitter andrew eighteen months eight years fifty day
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

01:45 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"Bass starts right now from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa leo traders on the desk or brosseau david seabourn dan nathan and guide dom tonight on fast it is a cristo comeback bitcoin light point bitcoin cash all raging higher after hitting fresh lows over the weekend is a bit point bear market over we've got a special report plus socks getting slammed in many socalled safety getting hammered as well so where should you hide now top strategists and fast funny friends tony dwyer got some ideas we start off with that market selloff as the dow one point dropped nearly five hundred point points at the lowes before rebounding but still turning negative for the year the nasdaq led the way lower falling nearly two percent on facebook show it looks like the perfect storm is brewing for the market for big fed meeting this week with rome pao stuff rates his first time at that as we've mentioned facebook at the forefront of an attack on big tech and chaos and dc heating up with the government shutdown looming and the muller investigation to the trump administration gaining steam so is this just the beginning of a bigger selloff is the worst yet to come guy the worst you have to come to go back to last week and obviously facebook is a big story today but i'm not convinced that we will not a soft today even facebook didn't have that those headlines i'm not sure would have been out as much as we were but the thing about last week karen find him in sat there and said it was the most concerned she's been in quite some time i think it was on wednesday on thursday the lead was is this a now sell the rips mark and i think across the desk we said even pete jerian who's been extraordinarily bullish said you know what he favors so in the rips right now so my sense is the market action we got last week set us up for today so obviously facebook is the headline but i do think this more pain to the downside they're going to be opportunities and.

new york city tony dwyer facebook karen pete jerian melissa leo muller two percent
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:04 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Did the math you're open you're up from that moment you were up eleven percent for the year it's a double digit tony dwyer and there's a lot of people that don't agree with you what did they get wrong tommy the title of our our monthly pitcher book is called evidence over emotion for reason i think people get very emotional they they try to think it's different this time so for example i it's interesting i you're a study you're better study of the fact that i am but the the san francisco fed just recently did a paper that looked at the yield curve figuring out of a different this time or not so they've looked at quantitative easing they've looked at all the factors that people think it's different emotionally this cycle versus any other cycle you know what they found it's not different this time it's exactly the same as it is so i think what the bears get wrong ultimately they're never wrong when the eucharist vertical it gets crushed it's gonna get crushed as soon as the fed and burke yorker which they do every cycle what they get wrong it's the timing of it well the last couple of months and you've really been beating the table about is that what matters here is not the flatness of the curve it's the inversion and that equities can continue to rally continue to mount up through a flattening curve is that the big point you try to make tony i really wanted to be clear on people like me when we say my opinion is you should ignore ignore us what i go by is what the evidence suggests in history is telling us it's commanding that the market is gonna go higher until it's proven differently which it hasn't over the last sixty years until proven differently until you'll curve and verts credit accelerates even toward the end of the cycle so again i think it's so important that we forget about that work quote unquote nine years into an economic recovery and look at what is the driver of a change in the economic direction always is the fed inverting kirk some banks and let's pick up on this point there was a huge consensus by other banks in two thousand eighteen you santa banks cannot perform well despite the shape of.

tony dwyer tommy san francisco fed kirk burke yorker eleven percent sixty years nine years
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

01:32 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"At this point it has an effect it continues i completely understand that but do you think they were at a place though that the consumer expects the retailer to sort of absorb that i mean the problem of stir enemy in the case dealers thinking consumer can absorb it the consumers are doing better wages are higher some of them are getting bonuses actually increase prices ab lg price increase brains absorbing that hyundai of i dunno right where i don't know this consumer russia i don't absorb that i don't know but protectionism and trade barriers in everything that's going on at least in terms of the rhetoric last week tomorrow we're going to flex some muscle we're going to tell the world how tough we are on trade this is all going to be inflationary it's all going to have an impact and at a time when we've been expecting inflation at some point to rear its ugly head and yet people are pricing in four fed hikes were at about fifteen percent probability of that we're at a fifty eight percent probability of three hikes i think of people beyond the curve are driving today said he'd gone the car you d risking your yes yes today today today i sold emerging markets that that to me or part of a tactical allegation which to me i tree quite actively and i flat did out i think emerging markets are are going a lot higher but they don't need to go a lot higher when there is overbought as they were in the dollar was his oversold as it was well if he thought today was wilder next guest as buckle up a pullback is coming and you want to listen to him because he is wall street's biggest ball tony dwyer chief market strategist at canaccord genuity is over at the plaza to break it all down tony take it away.

hyundai russia market strategist canaccord genuity lg tony dwyer fifty eight percent fifteen percent
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:42 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Also topping forecast up point three percent yearoveryear we've broken free percent were looking at a three point one percent increase over again the producer price index a gauge of wholesale prices topping forecast november a point four percent for more on the economy on the bloomberg terminal type echo go echo go on the internet bloombergcom unfancied belgium dice let's go back and you weren't video jesus thank you so much and fifteen minutes our composition of bitcoin with tyler in cameroon and if you don't know tyler in care winner you're not going game the sank the bully bankable us yeah the the viggo hawes vinko roughly the legal vast rice them w i've always had trouble with that and we have winkle vied hiring camera a casuarina sierra and more and you can actually sounded we're bitcoin is moving right of brain rentals canaccord genuity you know tony dwyer giving wisdom there brian is done terrific research and something very important and that is share buyback dynamic sprang give us the quick summary hear what you learned in your year and study of share buybacks well buybacks have been the main engine poland is bull market since two thousand nine and your continuing to grow women are actually celebrating a little bit check yesterday but one in elkton eighteen billion dollar buyback that comes on the heels of home depot's fifteen billion dollars by that last week it is stunning the disparity you've got a church sources too complicated these are discussed but it's got like eight lines and then there's buybacks i mean are you willing to say we're getting these big doubledigit returns just because of by x yes and while the chart you referred to was really complex because it looks at every major participated in the stock market i have another chart that's really simple towards the negative that com much chips compares by baxter all investors combine and what that shows is that investors have done very little point the point during the bull markets what does this say about tax cuts though and what's going to happen with the monti wants thankful to the bottom line well lis buybacks are fuelled by death the deck is fueled by our nation's public pensions who become a dominant global investor tax reform he's going to do nothing in terms of changing the demand for death and so what it maybe that is the make companies issue lestat women's to outcomes one is that.

bitcoin cameroon tyler tony dwyer poland stock market monti producer bloomberg winkle brian elkton baxter eighteen billion dollar fifteen billion dollars fifteen minutes three percent four percent one percent
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

01:31 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"There is no question that the rally in the stock market has based in to it reasonably high expectations of us getting tax cuts and tax reform done it also has based in to it uh optimism on regulatory relief which they begun to see and there's expectations so i think to the extent we get the tax deal done the stock market will go up higher but there's no question in my mind if we don't get it done you're going to see a reversal of a significant amount to these gains so what is really driving this rally tax hopes or earnings maybe a little bit about tony dwyer has canaccord union these chief market strategist tony welcome back it's great to be here my first i gotta say all right gave me a really good feeling to hear p talking about a global synchronized recovery bk is is the treasury secretary correct reform by the end of the year which is his own target i think the administration and the republican congress is responsible for some of it the global synchronized recovery that we're goofing around about it's been in place we've been talking about it on the show for the last year and a half once you came out of that february two thousand sixteen need a collapse of global economic of the global economy and era and it was really the ecb buying corporate debt kickstarted corporates in europe and you start to get this groundswell of activity was already in place but not yet showing up when the election happened.

stock market tony dwyer republican congress global economy market strategist p treasury secretary ecb europe
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

CNBC's Fast Money

01:43 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money

"So much for the duff so it's not who's the fed governor it's what the inflation expectations are doing and that's what derails it if you really get a rampant inflation expectations that in verts the curve paul volcker style almost i think that is the only thing that could create the peak even 1987 wasn't peak it was ual credit crisis when they couldn't get financing a 1989 so it sounds like you think the thing that could derail the markets is very unlikely to happen i mean is that total that's totally so so i'm listening today a lot of folks are talking about how the fed manipulates the curve really do it every cycle and then they east too much i remember alan greenspan and one point saying you'll never see three percent again i don't know friedman on the upside he met on the downside so the fed always over stimulates and then it takes lag it in the data and then they have to overtightening the 10year stays there any invert the curve and you shut down credit he cannot fix credit with credit so it's going to end badly but we're still on the right side of tony thank you tony dwyer thank you guys that's always ominous where he's coming off i can't agree more on financials and i think banks are in record profits and i think they have more operational leverage to this economy and the growth we're talking about and i still think that the materials trade is very interesting a lot of these guys a run their businesses very different for the last few quarters i'm talking about integrated miners steel companies that's where i think there's upset we got city and jp morgan to if your holdings report this week thursday i think right i mean i don't like it when they run up into earnings is the bars higher but but this is not a quarter that is really going to be critically important.

duff credit crisis alan greenspan friedman tony dwyer jp morgan paul volcker shut down three percent 10year
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:11 min | 3 years ago

"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The economy doing better better growth prospects and companies needing to finance and there's a lot of highgrowth companies that issue convertibles and it's great to be invested in those companies through the structure the spdr bloomberg barclays convertible securities etf up about twelve percent this year so you think is more room to run here absolutely um so i think that to the equity market has some more upside as long as monetary policy the means on the path that it is right now the most monetary policy so important i'll bring it up because i'm listening to you at one of the essence of elon's tony dwyer this might just talked about what's important right now he's watching kind of growth globally seems to be okay we're seeing growth in revenues as companies port report earnings i mean they're they're growing their business absolutely and if you listen to the imf there's been a nice pickup in global gdp this here who had a three point five percent annualized up from two point six percent nitish sappi not too shabby atto and you've seen the second quarter results the revenues going eight point six percent firstquarter was very strong so i think we've got a backdrop here with as being a pickup in growth at the same time mm inflation remains very moderate which then is a great recipe for companies to be able to grow their earnings without having to worry about raising rates and the valuations being impacted so it's a it's a great to be to be in the stock market so given example of a convertible so some examples of convertibles that futile rely on there's the as as an example of for highgrowth company that's great viv for convertibles to participate in is tesla motors which is i think is very fullyvalued his surface john emerging valuation but they're they're transformational company and they could be a lot of upside ready for the same time some of the projections in terms of the number of cars they're able to sell the margins they don't come true and they don't transform the electric grid as some people are expecting than they could be alerted downside and be there's a lot of ways to play the convert market had to explain why you like the.

spdr bloomberg elon tony dwyer imf stock market tesla motors six percent twelve percent five percent