20 Burst results for "Tony Dwyer"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With strength News a Paul little and bit of more Sweeney insight the than U and .S. what from they're consumer. Matt indicating Bloomberg Miller. This is as experts. a market We got small that's a lot of and There's green much still medium on more some the -sized screen optimistic concern here, businesses out but the or The there volume bullish in struggle the is market than light. supply maybe that they chain central We constantly there is has don't bankers room still underestimate are. for present got Breaking dislocations things as Market to much globally and here in the U .S. This is Bloomberg Markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Radio. Alright, coming up in this hour, we're going to have more reporting on the Israeli conflict. We're going to get Sam Dauer reporter on Saudi Arabia with Bloomberg News joins us from Dubai. We'll get that angle of the story. Plus, Fernando Valle, he is the senior energy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Get the latest on the global energy given space what is going on in the Middle East and we'll focus on Chevron in particular. And then Jennifer Lee, senior economist and managing director of BMO Capital Markets will join us to discuss the Fed and what we can look for in terms of some of the inflation data we're going to get starting tomorrow and the remainder of the week. But first, let's kick this hour off like we do with Mr. John Takahashi. All right, I'll start off with data just coming across the tape. New York Fed, one year inflation expectation coming in at 3 .67%. That was prior above the reading of 3 .63. As for markets, sharply lower treasury yields in the hopes Fed may be finished raising interest rates. That has stocks rising today. PepsiCo, that's higher after the beverage and snack giant reported third quarter earnings. Looking forward, the banks, they're going to be opening their books later this week, Friday as earnings season starts. Market strategist Tony Dwyer at Canaccord Genuity says this is not the time to buy those stocks just yet. I don't think it's going to be great. Bank lending standards are tightening. NFIB just came out a little while ago. Small businesses aren't optimistic. The business side for credit to improve. CitiGroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock results quarterly season against. That kicks off on Friday. This week inflation day to PPI.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Focused on the fact that we do have more unity within the West we have more unity with some of our partners the but summit then he's also going to be focused on Turkey issues too in terms of in his agenda you know kind of little brain you're talking about by economics and talking about infrastructure investments investments in green energy that came out of the inflation reduction act and inter chips investments as well Jeanette you talked about call my air endgame in Ukraine what does that look like you know I think people are really trying to put some bookends around what that could be there is definitely concern in Washington that this could be a protracted fight that we don't actually see one side have come to an end or a complete victory and so there's trying to be a push I think to give Ukraine as many tools as it may have at the time to on work this counter offensive to gain some additional territory and then maybe there could be a negotiated settlement after that but I think people are really trying to also think about could this be lasting longer and what does that look like for US engagement we do have a presidential election there could be a change in leadership and they so think there's also concern about what that would mean for the future as well but there's a lot of undecideds and I think that probably the biggest consensus is that we may not see a complete victory and we're looking for some sort of negotiated settlement. Jeanette Lowe of Strategas. Jeanette, thank you. Thanks for your input this morning on the latest with the president foreign policy and recent the visit to Lithuania just got a message on the Bloomberg Tom. Bull market and victory lapse. Bull market and victory lapse. It's a huge debate. I mean I I'm looking at the screen this morning, and I Go go back back to what Englander said yesterday was game -changing. Everyone's going to reset over the weekend. Can you imagine Somebody set lower with a more cautious view the meetings being taken in the next 48 hours to reset for the end of July. Okay. I just think you say victory lap and you're setting yourself up for some real humble pie later on in the year because we're not there yet And the reality is I keep going back to what Tony Dwyer had to say which is it's fine to have those Profit expand margins but then when the revenue declines all bets are off and so it's the heart of the That's matter the heart of the matter if you start to see weakening in the labor market if people can't keep spending endlessly On airline tickets just you know from a personal perspective then at that point you have to imagine all Sudden of it changes the game. Okay, but if we get inflation down to two and a half three percent, which everybody would state is a Massive societal victory lap that still clocks in with nominal GDP. It won't you We're not back to one point eight percent, but if you get inflation to a meaningful Sticky the point bet is from the optimist that you sustain a semblance of The revenue growth that we saw from Pepsi. There's got to be some accountability on these calls though TK, you know You can't just make Then a call wait long enough and say they were right. Congratulation. That's a shell game. That's the Wall Street game. Want to play that game. When can we play history lesson though? When can we look back and say the victory lap? It was a winning victory. I don't know. This is fun though guys. Yeah. Yeah another 90 minutes of it. Can't wait. Should I beside Franklin Templeton today Today nearly all businesses International business the same goes for business disputes. That's why the International Center for dispute resolution provides a faster more efficient approach to dispute resolution across borders. Backed by the American Arbitration Association the ICDR is the world's leading provider of dispute resolution services. Find out why global expertise matters. Visit ICDR .org. What is ICDR .org. We call on Day -Date for short. Every day he's hungry for something whether it's attention affection knowledge and there's this huge responsibility and making sure that when he's no longer under my wing that he's
Northwest Newsradio
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Northwest Newsradio
"Tony Dwyer of Canaccord who says look all of this is recessionary. He says the top 10 stocks as a percentage of the other own market cap stands at 32 .2 % that's even higher than the dot -com era peak in 2000 and it's also higher than in late 2021. He also says that those top 10 stocks currently account for the entire year to date the gain S &P 500. CNBC's Sarah Eisen for the year so far the S &P 500 is up 9%. Investors paying attention today to the debt ceiling progress and Amazon shares as well. Amazon will pay more than 30 million dollars in federal trade commission settlements over ring video doorbell and Alexa privacy violations. The FTC says rings privacy failures led to spying and harassment through the home security cameras and the FTC says Amazon violated the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act by illegally containing thousands of children's information through their profiles set up with the Alexa voice assistant. Great resignation. It was really nice to know you. The U. S. Quit rate is back down to the pre pandemic average as of April and this is according to the latest jolts report on job opportunity and labor turnover. Workers quit their jobs in record numbers in 2021 and 2022 after peaking in April last of year. Things are looking up at American Airlines. Well, American raised its adjusted earnings outlook for this current quarter. That means it thinks it's going to do better now than it thought. At first and investors do like that. Flyers keep buying plane tickets. Jet fuel prices are down. You've got strong demand, which we've known about, but now we're seeing it manifest in terms of the guidance along with lower fuel costs
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The bank collapse and Saudi Aramco falls on the news that a plan for another multi-billion dollar stock offering is gaining momentum. Sources tell Bloomberg that any deal is likely to be one of the world's largest share sales in recent years. This has gone out across the Amazon menace cranny and Dubai. You can hear them salivating over the dividend from Aramco more in that in just a moment. But there is a lack of a surety in these markets of any deal being done. I like what Tony dwyer karma chord said. We're fine. We're frustrated. We're insecure. Neurotic and emotional. It's an average day on daybreak, but look at the T mobile market. You're going all the way back to those zen of 2001. This is as far back as our data goes. And the bond market overall was shaking yesterday a jumbo bond offering from Pfizer $31 billion, the fourth largest ever in the United States of America. That moves the longer end of the curve roll it over, have a look. Short end of the curve spike, the data for consumer retail sales is, again, the first increase since January. So the data and the pushback against rate cuts is what's pushing the yield curve at the moment. I like what New York fed Williams actually had to say. The needs to gather further feedback from past rate moves. So finally, it may be that the narrative is building up for some kind of a positive. It depends on your list to do bargain will raise again, master is ready to pull the trigger. And of course, kashkari says the labor market is too hot. So that's the state of play in the bond market, the yields come back ever so slightly to the equity market. There's just a lack of belief in a lack of conviction. Conviction. There was a short sharp sell off into the close with the diode over 1%, the NASDAQ is back up a quarter of 1%. You are seeing the Bank of America survey. Again, 65% see a weaker economy. Investors are the most pessimistic so far in 2023. They are bearish. The fed is done, risk assets will be resilient so long as there's a soft landing. And the allocation to stocks get this is at a 5 month high. The biggest crowded trade, long, big tech. Let's get to annabelle Julius. She's got the rest of our equity markets to get through this morning. So it's all about the yuan for me and in terms of retesting the 7 level. Good morning. Good afternoon. Absolutely. That's right, yeah, and then as well, good noon really because it's just got midday here in Hong Kong, but that is really the big focus today in the session. It really is about the offshore Chinese you want, it has just gone past that 7 level. The first time we seen that in a few months and it really just is a reflection of how much concern there is around the economy there in China we were covering those activity numbers that came through yesterday disappointing to the downside and just for the signals to us at the recovery there is looking quite uneven. In terms of what else are watching today, well, it is moving to the downside. You can see that the CS 9 300 likewise trading a negative territory, but the focus in the stock space still coming through on Japan today and you can see at the bottom of the screen. The nikkei two two 5 pushing higher and some including CLS, saying we've got upside of a further 10% to go for this market. A lot of foreign investors coming in something calling it perhaps the Warren Buffett effect. We do know he is quite positive on that market, otherwise in terms what else we're keeping an eye on. It is bond yields that are moving high here tracking what we saw in treasury is commodities still under pressure a little bit again a reflection of what's happening in China that's also in turn being weighing on those more commodity sensitive currencies like the Aussie dollar and essentially that really is the excited play today, two big stories down to Japan and then also manage, as you said, China. It is indeed and that data yassi was a bruiser, wasn't it? And about was he later in the morning, annabelle jewelers in Hong Kong. Well, President Biden has scrapped his plans to visit Australia and Papua New Guinea, so he can return to Washington all in the hope of closing a deal on the debt ceiling. The high speaker, Kevin McCarthy, is warning the two sides remain far apart. It says an agreement is possible. Earlier
CNBC's Fast Money
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"With 6 month treasuries. You're getting an equivalent 6 month treasury yield, then you're getting using my $210 estimate, which is below the street. But not Armageddon level is 210 versus 228 straight. So with that scenario, there is no reason to take a major major bet. Just seeing what your position in Tony right now, it looks like you're sort of in a bunker. I mean, if I Tony dwyer standards, you are. If you're an average person at home and there are plenty of people out there if you invest mainly in indices, do you invest for the next 6 months in an index or do you invest in the next 6 months in a T Bill, which yields more than 5% at this point? I think it's the next three months in the T Bill, now this is a levered system. And when it does decide to drop, it's going to do a really quickly. I think the debt ceiling debate, you know, somebody asked me today. What's the catalyst? And we're all so full of it. We don't know what the catalyst is. You never know what the catalyst or you wouldn't have this massive drawdown. It's going to be something that's unexpected in some way. Here's what I do know. The bull story is kind of that October was the loan was discounting everything. The NASDAQ AD line. Remember all the biggest stocks are in the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ AD line made an all time low on Friday. The volume AD line for the New York Stock Exchange is making a new low. These things don't typically happen when you're coming off of a major bear market law. So now we're looking for one more push lower. And it's going to be a nasty push. And with you and the team, the last time the yield curve inverted and the 2019 you and the team, we had a video on behind me or a picture when I was in studio of the grim Reaper and it was the dwyer doomsday plaque. It's all about money. Your permeable when there's open money and quite a solid availability of money. And when it's not like now, you just want to stay on the side ones. Tony, good to see you. Thank you. Great to be with you, Mel. Tony dwyer. Tony is the Reaper. He's the Reaper. I mean, it's going to be quick and nasty. The final push lower guy. I know you're in that camp. Yeah, but it's blue oyster cult, one said so famously that Tim knows this. Don't fear the Reaper. When the Reaper comes, it doesn't matter anyway. But listen, Tony, it's amazing. He gets painted in such corners and his work is extraordinary in terms of what he's doing. He's not a perma anything. He's just perma smart and he's talking about the things that we've been talking about. And those advanced declines, I mean, throw this up there as well. Right now, Microsoft and Apple combined are more than 14% of the S&P 500. That's extraordinary. And maybe that can continue. Maybe the market can continue to be dragged up by a handful of names. I don't think that's the case though. All right, coming up. EU approval. Microsoft's Activision deal getting the okay from European regulators. So will other countries follow? We got the details straight ahead. But first, a burger bump, Shake Shack shares jumping as activist investors get involved more on
CNBC's Fast Money
"tony dwyer" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Of 2023, the Dow shedding almost 700 points Home Depot responsible for nearly 150 points of that drop. The S&P is syncing 2%, the NASDAQ falling two and a half percent. Yields meantime moving higher with the two year over 4.7% and the ten year nearly a 4% and take a look at the HYG high yield corporate bond ETF down at its lowest level of the year, Karen, you went shorts. I've been short for a while. I mean, for a long time. And I think part of the move today obviously is rates, some short this and the LQD, which is bank loans. But I think that we haven't seen a credit cycle where the spreads start to really widen. That hasn't happened yet. And I think that it really could. And then we're also seeing debt that's going to be coming due, and they're going to be able to refinance it probably fine, but a lot higher rates. So I think that adds to balance sheet stress. So to me, it seems like a decent hedge against things kind of going Berserk. Yeah, it was interesting BlackRock today was moving overweight, short term treasuries, underweight, are moving lower their weighting on investment grade. I mean, short term, when you're talking about yields where we are almost 5% approaching 5% with no risk to the principal. We had Richard Fisher on last week and his point about credit being the big concern. And that has not broken, which is a good thing. I'm not suggesting it's bad, but Karen spot on. And the 70 40, $70 and 40 cents was the low in the H one which you were thinking in September. So a 73 handle, although it seems close, it's light years away in this instrument because it doesn't trade. So a one point move in this thing today is big. But you start making moves like this on a consistent basis. Then you have to get concerned. So I'm with Karen on this one. I think HIG goes lower from here. Our next class believes we are getting closer to a recession in the coming months and that October low, not really the low. Let's brain can accord ingenuity's chief market strategy just Tony dwyer, Tony, great to see you. So what kind of low are you bracing for? So why don't we just give it the data? So you open the show with how the two year note yields it, the highest of the cycle, we look back since it's been at 500 stock index and since 1957. And the S&P 500 has never made the low of a cycle when it's down more than 19% before the two year made its peak. So with the two year making, the peak of the cycle so far, that tells you that October low wasn't dull off. Okay, so then in the notes, you say that the higher the two year yield goes, the more likely we are headed into a recession. So does that mean you see that in the cards at this point? And so we're going to do the markets. I do, Mel, I think the soft landing scenario is because you couldn't disprove the data yet. In other words, you go, you don't go from super fast to a recession in a tick. So it takes time to get there. So what we're basing our recession call on is the percentage of the yield curves that are inverted. Is it almost 87%? All you need is 55% of them to be inverted to get into a recession. Even the soft landings of 1966, 1995 and 2016, the composite leading economic indicators were nowhere near as weak as they are now. Anytime the lei's have been here, you've gone into recession, and then lastly, not just the money supply, but the bank lending standards have tightened to a level that and the loan demand for senile loans are at a level that have been associated with recession. So to me, the data is there for a recession. We just haven't had enough time to get there yet. Hey, Tony, so this is obviously backward looking if you're, you know, you have the data here. But do you have any sense of when stock market in a bear market usually bottom in and around a recession because again, you know, this recession call by a lot of strategists and some investors too has been pushed out a little bit. You know, a lot of people were saying just a couple of weeks ago, we're in a new bull market and the bear is over. So I'm just curious if you're right about the recession, maybe in the back half of 2023. How do the stock markets usually bottom before recessions are in them? David, it's a great question. They've never bought them before recession. So the mean the median number of weeks from the beginning of the recession to the S&P 500 low is 23 and a half weeks. So that's why this whole call has been about the recession and why it's so important to use that data I mentioned earlier. So we know that when the two years making a peak, the S&P has never made the low. Until after the two year peaks number one, that means the October low isn't it. And we also know that the market has never bottomed before the recession even began. So but what I want to do if I can is be super clear here or over a year into this bear market. I want to attack the next level. You don't get Armageddon negative now. We go back to that October alone, and I want to attack it because it'll be when bad finally bad news will become bad news. And that's typically when you make that recession based loan. And what takes us out then, Tony, because I think, well, I mean, you know we admire your work a great deal.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"You probably have to assume that all that we're in economically is going to fade or we'll go away eventually. We'll stabilize and these companies are going to right size their growth rates back to what we're accustomed to. Ed Amazon shares among the most actively traded right now down close to 10% after its disappointing earnings. Tony dwyer can accord January says the current environment for stocks is, in his words, a mess. The fed is raising rates into a historic way into a generationally levered system based on debt to GDP. Inventories have spiked and demand is weak. That is not the formula for a while. Let's go out and buy stocks because it's about to get good. The economy has surveyed by Bloomberg saying the Federal Reserve will maintain their resolutely hawkish stance next week laying the groundwork for interest rates reaching 5% by March of 2023. Right now, as we look at the major indexes, the S&P 500 up 71 points a rise of 1.9%, NASDAQ 100 up two and a half percent of 275 points, the Dow off 681. I'm John Tucker that's your Bloomberg business flash. This is balance of power on Bloomberg television radio. I'm David Weston. We've just talked to a democratic representative up for our election. And now we're going to talk to a Republican one. He's representative Brad win strip. Republican of Ohio. Congressman, thank you so much for being with us. As I understand it, you're just back from Asia, specifically I visit among other places, Taiwan. Give us your assessment of where we are right now. That's been a source of a lot of increasing conflict between China and the United States. Without a doubt, it's definitely happening, even had the Chinese ambassador want to visit with me and Cincinnati and that was before. I went to Taiwan, but when we went to Taiwan, we had the chance to speak with the president with foreign minister also with the National Security Council members and those on trade. All of these things are very important. All these components are very important in our relationship with Taiwan. And we wanted to talk about the areas that we can work together on to strengthen our bonds and talk about security, stability of the region, stability within the world. And how much we do need to have a trade, but China is certainly on everyone's mind, especially in Taiwan. Now they've been used to that, obviously, for decades. But right now, China seems to be upping the rhetoric and increasing their actions around Taiwan militarily. So it is important that we work with them because what we're seeing is China is trying to advance their power within the South China Sea and around the world. They're certainly watching Ukraine closely as they decide how they may want to act on Ukraine or not. But the bottom line is China really wants to be the one superpower in the world, not just a superpower in the world. But these superpower in the world. And obviously with Taiwan sitting there, they feel Taiwan is theirs. And it seems like more and more they're not willing to let it be autonomous. And we certainly saw what happened in Hong Kong. Yeah, congressman, you mentioned Ukraine. Let's go back to that for a moment here because the minority leader actually got some news there. Kevin McCarthy, when he sort of intimated that maybe if the Republicans took over control of the House, there'd be at least a second look at some of the support giving Ukraine. I'm thinking he said, it's not going to be a blank check. There are other priorities. If in fact, Republicans were to take over the house, should we be focused on whether they'll be continued support for Ukraine the way we've seen it. Yeah, I think you'll see support for Ukraine, but it's a matter of how we do it. One of the concerns that we have on the Republican side is the strength of the United States of America. And we want to make sure that our defenses are strong. Look, you saw the president recently the administration just decided to abandon one of our tactical submarines. The Biden administration's idea of what our military should be looking like is different from what Republicans feel it should look like. And actually, different from what a lot of Democrats feel, it should look like, especially in the armed services committee. So we're going to be more about making sure our military is strong, but when it comes to Ukraine, it's a very good question. All it is is about making sure that we're responsible. Because what is the endgame in Ukraine? I would hope that they are a sovereign nation as they are determined to be and as Russia once said that they were. And we allow that to be our goal, but at the same time, how do we help them get to that point? And so how are we spending our money? I think initially, bipartisan, we all were like, we got to help them. We got to help them now. And let's get some help into Ukraine, whether it's military, humanitarian aid. But now we've got to look at what is our long-term strategy and what is our goal and how we're spending our money. And I think that's where the leader is coming from on that from the Republican standpoint. It's just let's spend our money wisely, but also we want to engage with Europe and make sure that they continue to stay in this conversation as well because they have really awakened to the threat of Russia that they apparently didn't think was as strong before. Cash flows continue on this hypothetical if in fact Republicans take control of the House, which seems certainly a possibility right here we are just a bit half away from the election. What other big changes would you say you serve on House ways and means as well as on the select committee and intelligence? What are the biggest changes you think you'd see? Well, I think we're
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Thank you so much for being with us. Brian deese White House director of the national economic council. We appreciate you taking the time. Alisa Brown was there with Brian deese of The White House off of a good good inflationary report. We've got lots lined up for you here as we see the market of 455 Dow points, which means if you're in the triple leverage all cash fund, you've got to find some form of conversation, Paul. To buy that first share. Yeah, that would be Anthony dwyer. Candy corn Genuity joins us right now. And what is so great about dwyer's concept of you've got to be in the market is it is about recession. Tony dwyer, after a bang up jobs report, after a bang up inflation report, does recession drift away so you can be an Uber bull? It really doesn't come and thanks guys for having me. It really doesn't actually the issue for the market right now shouldn't be inflation. That was going to peak. There was no question. It's already peaked in the core PCE, which is what the fed states that they use a couple of months ago. What now the issue going forward is going to be does it go into recession because how the market acts from here is truly dependent on that call. All right, so Tony, you know, I think over the last several well, I don't know, last couple of weeks, at least folks been trying to get a sense here as they look at their stock market portfolio. Is this real? Is this bounce real or is this something that they tell me as a kind of a bear market bounce? How do you think about it? How do you identify it? Boy, we love throwing those terms around, don't we? Yes, we do Ultimately, our call this year was that it was going to be a tumultuous year on the back of a transition in the fed. First half where the first decline in the market, the 24% decline got excessive. So we expected we expected the history suggested there should be an oversold bouncer somewhere rally because people had just become overly passive mystic toward the fed toward the market toward economic activity in the last couple of reports Paul the time referred to the employment report and the inflation report. It kind of is reinforcing that. Things got overdone to the downside. And again, I think the issue that we're going to have going into the fall. Not please. Necessarily right the second, obviously. Going into the fall is the fed is still raising rates. So that typically isn't helpful. The majority of the yield curves are inverted or have been inverted. And that is not good for economic outlook. So the time to not be overly pessimistic was in June when the market's down 20%. I get that, but come on, Tony, the fact is, let's say inflation's, you know, it's there. We're still going to get nominal GDP in revenue growth that's pretty darn good. And everybody got second quarter wrong. I mean, Julian Emmanuel over at Evercore has been brilliant about writing up the revenue miss, the earnings vessel was all better than expected. You're my optimism guy, Tony. I mean, you sound like you're following the Detroit tigers. Are you really that pessimistic? Well, yes, frankly, I think the economy. Your tigers pessimistic? Well, I've been kind of that way this year with the exception of the summer rally call. And it comes down to Tom that, as you know, one credit tightens up and bank lending standards tighten up and corporate spread slowdown. It all comes down to money availability. Now, again, that got two pessimistic in the early part of the summertime. And now it's a little too optimistic. We're having that oversold bounce because it was clear that it's funny. Here's the transition, guys. It's not funny. I'm in the triple leverage all cash fund. Here's the way that for the listener that the sentiment transitions. You go from good news is bad news because it means good economic news means the fed's going to tighten and money is going to become less available. And that transitions into bad news is good news because oh good, thankfully things are slowing down in the fed can stop raising rates, but ultimately you go into the bad news is bad news where you do get that revenue slowdown that people that are really watching this stuff, you're not in a recession when you have nominal GDP at 7% in Q two. It was all about the inflation print. So is that comes down, the reason that's coming down is because of fetish slowing demand and when the fed slows demand, that's where you ultimately have that margin pressure. Tony, is it a fair to say that maybe the feds kind of doing what it said it hope to do kind of finding that balance between inflation and recession? Well, Paul were in that point where, yes. It's the pendulum swing. A member of a pendulum goes from one extreme just as the listeners can do this visually. Take the pendulum that goes from one extreme to the left. So it's swinging to the left, it got so far that it starts to swing back. There is a point in time where it's directly centered. But it doesn't stay there. Right. We're kind of in the sweet spot now where there's still nominal growth as time suggested. We now have a less inflation print, which we saw today. And that's great. That's the summary. I just want to knock down 24% anymore. Okay, well. I've never heard of that gloomy Anthony dwyer. Thank you so much for Genuity. I think I feel better. The market feels better. Dwyer driving the market higher. The Dow up 512 points. That's a Ted Williams statistic. With our news in New York City is Michael Barr. John Paul, thank you very much. Former president Donald Trump is expected to be deposed today in New York by state attorney general letitia James. He is part of the civil investigation into the Trump family's real estate business. Trump and his children, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump will be deposed. Neither did Justice Department nor the FBI has made any public comments about executing a search warrant, a former president Trump's Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Beach. However, Trump supporters are speaking out. Republican senator Ted Cruz of Texas called for a congressional investigation and even subpoenas to gather more information about the search. We should examine what is the basis for this extraordinary invocation of federal power against President Biden's chief political rival. Senator Cruz says this raises serious questions about the Biden administration, politicizing and weaponizing law enforcement. Businessman Tim Michaels endorsed by former president Trump won the Republican primary for Wisconsin governor. Everywhere I go, people come up to me and they say, Tim, I'm so happy that you got into this race. I am ready for a change. I'm tired of politics as usual. Michaels will face democratic governor Tony Evers, Michaels defeated former lieutenant governor Rebecca cleavage, who was endorsed by former VP
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Bloomberg business out and at Bloomberg quick tape. This is a Bloomberg business lash. From woodburn world, headquarters. I'm Charlie palata Thursday rally stocks are higher as recent economic data alleviates concerns that inflation is too hot to be tamed. Commodities from oil to copper jumped as the dollar retreated for the first time in 5 days. The S&P 500 Index is up 49 points now. That is a gain of 1.25%. The Dow's advancing 266 points up 9 tenths of 1% and has stacked composite indexes up 227 higher now by 2%. The ten year yield 3.00% the two year yield 3.05% spot gold up $4 the ounce to 1742 hired by two tenths of 1%, while West Texas intermediate crude oil is surging 5.3% to one O three 81 a barrel on West Texas and immediate crude. So an update across the board for the U.S. stock market has for the market backdrop and the outlook for earnings. Tony dwyer is equity strategist at Canaccord, Genuity. The only thing that can allow us to look through the coming slowdown in academic activity and earnings. To me is when the fed signals a major change since I've been doing this since 1987 and I can't remember a major correction in the market where the bottom didn't come with a signaling change from the fed. GameStop shares are rallying following the announcement of a four for one stock split in the form of a dividend becoming one of the latest companies to do so as the practice has gained in popularity. Game share GameStop shares they're up now by just about 12.4%. Weekly jobless claims rose to 235,000 the highest since January rising interest rates aimed at curbing inflation are weighing on growth. Tomorrow morning, the government will issue June payroll data economists anticipate moderation, complete coverage at 8 30 a.m. Wall Street time when that number breaks right here on Bloomberg radio. One O two on Wall Street time now for the market drivers report with a focus on American depository receipts. And here's Abigail Doolittle. Thanks Charlie and similar to the broader markets ADRs are broadly rallying, starting out with the China tech ADR's the NASDAQ golden dragon index comprised of China tech ADRs well it's up about 4%. This is lots of the ADRs within such as Alibaba JD.com Baidu and neo climbed between three to 7%, not so shabby. This, of course, in the possibility of $220 billion of stimulus from the Chinese government, but the rally extends to natural resource ADRs such as BP, the energy giant of 3.7% of Rio tinto is a minor of 3.3% those ADRs are rallying, respectively with oil up 5% and some metals up about 4%. Charlie? Okay, we thank you very much, Abigail, do a little keeping track of those ADRs. So again, recapping, we've got ourselves a rally with the Dow, the S&P and nesta all advancing S&P up right now by 48 points up 1.3% ten year yield 3.00% the two year yield three 4%. I'm Charlie peloton that is a Bloomberg business flash. This is balance and power with David Weston. Inflation is a bigger risk because it's here. It's real, and if inflation doesn't come under control quickly, it does enormous long-term damage. We have employees who are being bombarded by these rising energy costs. Where the world of politics meets the world of business. There aren't a lot of inflation fighting policies outside of what the fed can do. The American consumer like consumers really all over the world are paying a Putin tax. Balance of power with David Westin on Bloomberg radio, Boris Johnson makes it official Britain will have a new prime minister and a line or maybe we should call it a queue of candidates forms, while the United States will wait for jobs numbers tomorrow with clues on what the fed will do next. From the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York, welcome to the second hour of bounce of power. I'm David Westin
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We're in this new normal where inflation is much higher than anyone expected this inflation is going to be pretty persistent not where it is now but way above where the fed wants it to be The market has raced ahead of the fed and the fed to be very aggressive in their actions The fed's not going to back away because the market's tough The fed's going to back away because inflation starts to slow later in the year Raising interest rates is not going to solve the problem of inflation This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abraham always Good morning everyone Jennifer Farrell Lisa Berman Tom keen Today from the World Economic Forum day two and Davos a Switzerland extraordinary and interesting meetings more different than anything I've seen in whatever it is 18 or 19 years in May was the meeting scheduled in January at least I was speaking to WEF officials today and they don't want to say yet formally we're on for January but they're really getting there quickly Well there's the difference right now between very nice weather that people don't want to miss and the fact that people are enjoying the fact that it's not snowy and icy to the fact that in January people are getting the agenda done and it tends to be more crowded So how do you parse that out But this is a moment where people are coming together Amid a sea of uncertainty for off the record conversations about how things really are because they can not say it in public Market stable two days in a row up and down fractionally I'll say without the emotion Can you imagine what these meetings would be like if what we see in the last two or three weeks it continued Yeah that it would be absolutely a little bit more fear although a lot of people look at this as a short term reprieve And that sort of what we were hearing just now from Tony dwyer that basically there is this feeling We've baked in a lot of fed tightening There's a pause and suddenly people are reassessing to figure out where we go from here It's a dollar in regards to that too Christian guard said that friends in the choir as well There's some adjustment here Maybe it's her job owning maybe it's James diamond but you're a stronger is a breath of fresh air And it's because Christine Lagarde has asserted that they are going to move to avoid the negative yielding policy or the negative rate policy I should say by the end of September but it's paired with Rafael bostic of the Atlanta fed coming out over the past 24 hours and saying he views September is a good time to pause with rate hikes And Tobias Thank you So how much are we really pricing in a pause from the Federal Reserve This is folks I miss stuff up here I'm sorry It's a shock I know I miss this from mister bostic who's very measured in his language but that goes to the sequential meetings It's non linear They do some easy lifting in June and then it gets to be sport out to September Which if that's the case then it feeds into the bull case that this fed will not be as aggressive as the market is currently pricing in Right now I got to say in markets yes we are seeing a turn but yesterday we saw a bit of a reprieve Today not so much And we're seeing back to what we saw over the past 7 weeks with 7 weeks the longest stretch of losses going back to 2000 and tell us about what we got going on here Well the S&P is down to 1% 39 31 the dollar strength does continue Euro Dollar weaker Euro stronger one O 7 Thank you I appreciate that Yields up to heels down Excuse me 2.82% A little lift to crude now but honestly what I really want to know is the people the incredible guests we have coming up including bob prince co chief investment officer at Bridgewater who is going to be with us in just a couple of minutes Pedro Sanchez prime minister of Spain and Tony capuano chief executive officer of Marriott International They've gotten really some of the biggest benefits from all of the consumer spending as everybody has experiences How long can that last given some of the concern people have about inflation One thing on the Bloomberg screen today it's beneath the radar mister Erdoğan is not at Davos today but we did see Turkish lira breakthrough It's been sustaining stronger relatively stronger holding at 16 and just a bit ago broke through decisively to 16.11 It's off the radar but that's something I'm looking at Part of Davos is the investment People come here for years after years after years and some of them have the means to invest in a happy valley And we're thrilled to show you something that ray dalio of Bridgewater is done I mean it's something when you're as large as ray dalio and you can get a couple acres going and you've got the daily old goat farm I mean it's out there And I said who owns the goats And they said we're going to get a shot for you now on radio It is the hills are alive with the sound of music And it's the goats just behind us We can hear them bleeding They're saying what are those that cash is trash Anyways From the goats Well I don't know if they're labs or go to people Come on guys this is the help we get from New York Yes I think Thank you I know that Right now the same misses Robert prince bob prince is co chief investment officer at Bridgewater associates You don't own any goats do you No but my grandchildren have two little sheep Okay They do Next door to us There's a surveillance break exclusive I want to take a bigger picture Bridgewater having a much better year And this year was some solid solid returns The backdrop is a bond market that only people with a gray area you and I have experienced It is extraordinary price down yield up What are the ramifications if this bond bear market continues Well I think the way you have to look at the bond market is that there are really two bond markets According to what's priced in there's the front end of the bond market which is priced in a tightening And then there's the back end of the bond market that's priced in that everything's going to be fine after that little tightening And that the inflation rate is going to go back to 2.7 So the near term has been priced in along the lines of what you're saying And that pricing has passed through to equities and other assets But the second round of tightening hasn't been priced in It hasn't been priced into the bond market It hasn't been priced in the stock market It hasn't been priced in a break-even inflation And so whether that's actually going to happen really depends on the underlying drivers of the inflation Which I think would be good to go into But there's more there's more to go I think Maybe in the near term we get a little pause because the fed will probably follow the forward curve up But even if they follow the forward curve up you're looking at a bond market that has not discounted higher than 2.7 78 prevot or 77 7 8 how do we recover from Bond losses like that You got a whole something besides.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Brad sequel And I'm susannah Palmer in the Bloomberg news room New York City expanded its onsite COVID-19 vaccine hubs to charter schools on Friday We could more about that from Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini The charter schools were initially excluded from the vaccine rollout which saw only vaccine pods at public schools A mayor de Blasio is now calling this new effort to get more vaccines into the arms of children a charter school blitz in the nearly two weeks the vaccine has been available to kids age 5 to 11 in New York City About 78,000 have received their first doses already Denise Pellegrini Bloomberg radio Gains for several technology companies pushed to the NASDAQ composite to another record high Friday and its first close over 16,000 points A choppy several days of trading left the S&P 500 and NASDAQ higher for the week and the Dow lower What about the inflation backdrop at this point Well Tony dwyer is equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity All those signs that show up when inflation becomes a major problem for the financial markets are not showing up And I think that's what's surprising so many people is that even with all this inflation talk it really hasn't hit the market share For the week the S&P 500 rose three tenths of 1% The Dow fell 1.4% this week in the NASDAQ gained one and a half percent for the week Private equity firms Bain capital and hellmann and Friedman LLC are close to a deal to acquire healthcare technology firm athenahealth Price tag $17 billion including debt That is according to The Wall Street Journal which quotes a source as saying there is no guarantee a deal will go through Ford Motor has abandoned plans to jointly develop an electric vehicle with rivian automotive for it holds a 12% stake in rivian the two are abandoning joint plans as they try to focus on their own electric vehicles Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I am Susanna Palmer This is.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Survey conducted by the analytics company YouGov found two out of 5 Americans surveyed believed in ghostly apparitions on top of that one in 5 said they had even seen a spirit from the other side The northern lights may be visible over Lake Erie in the northern U.S. this weekend The national oceanic and atmospheric space weather prediction center says there's a geomagnetic storm brewing for tomorrow People could see the northern lights as far west as Oregon and east as Pennsylvania I'm Bryan shook And I'm Charlie peloton Bloomberg world Hank waters stocks head into the weekend at records traitors for weighing disappointing earnings and bond market gyrations amid concerns over inflation and monetary tightening Apple after earnings was down 1.8% Amazon after earnings down 2.1% Tony dwyer is equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity and he told us you've got to keep the losses at Apple and Amazon in perspective So Amazon and again I'm not giving a recommendation either way I can't talk about individual stocks But Amazon factually is where it was last July July of 2020 is below where it was in July of 2020 So the idea that Amazon has been the market leader over the last year is just inaccurate And if you look at Apple it's back to just a little bit above where it was In January of this year Can accords Tony dwyer So the Apple and Amazon reports clearly highlighted supply chain issues James camp is manager for strategic income and fixed income at eagle asset management We have had so much stimulus put into the consumer pocket We have had such great recovery of consumer balance sheet and many of these folks are supplanting the experiential consumption that travel the movie theaters for buying goods We have massive demand in the way you correct massive demand as you move price James camp of eagle asset management As for the economic backdrop Christina hooper is chief global market strategist at invesco I think we're going to see a bit of a pickup in the fourth quarter as COVID headwinds have dissipated But then we should see some moderation in growth next year as we transition to a more normal state In vesco's Christina hooper S&P up 9 up two tenths of 1% today the Dow of 89 at a record up three tenths has stack also up by three tenths of 1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie Pollock this is Bloomberg This is masters in business with very renewals on Bloomberg radio My extra special guest this week is Lisa Jones She is the CEO of a Monday U.S. the $100 billion U.S. arm of Europe's second largest asset manager on Mundy a Mundy proper manages over $2 trillion in assets than one of the ten largest asset managers in the world with over a 100 million clients in 36 countries about 4500 employees Lisa Jones welcome to Bloomberg Thanks Barry thanks for having me here today My pleasure I've been looking forward to chatting with you for a while I think of a Monday as really one of the largest asset managers that a lot of people especially in the U.S. haven't heard of But before we get to mundi let's talk a little bit about your early career experience You come out of trendy college with a bachelor's in economics and you start at MFS investment management Tell us a little bit about your early experiences in the industry So you know I've been working for 30 years So when you say to me about your early experience because make sure we don't go on for so long But actually prior to MFS I started working at EF button for those of your listeners who remember EF Hutton Trinity has been Hartford and at that point in time you went to New York or you went to Boston and I was from Boston so I wanted to take a shot at working in New York City And I started working for EF Hutton and work there for a few years really working through the crisis of 1980 the stock market crash in the late 1980s and started in customer service of the brokerage accounts where shareholders wanted to call and ask questions and get some answers It was a great introduction into being an a client facing role And so from there I went to work at MFS in Boston and I joined MFS in 1988 I joined MFS as a wholesaler covering the bank channel The territory was the northeast and back then in the bank channel the northeast was really laying down to Virginia And it was in the early days where beyond bank trust departments banks were beginning to have licensed investment professionals sitting there lobbies to offer alternatives to banking customers And that was my first experience working at MFS as a wholesaler I then as the time went on began to become in-house more in a management role and assume responsibility for running the bank channel after MFS and keep in mind as we think about the world of investing today and talking about low interest rates This is a period of time when CDs were double digit treasuries or double digit And so it was a quite a different environment for selling investment products in yields event at that point in time So is that enough as for a total of 16 or so years to spend some time on the institutional side running the global institutional business for emphasis at that time So let's talk a little bit about that global institutional business eventually you end up as global head of distribution at Morgan Stanley's What enabled you to climb to the top of that ladder and how different is institutional and distribution from what people typically think of as individual investing So today I would say that those lines between the two groups are blurring But let's go back to the point in time of when I transitioned from what we would call the kind of retail or the distribution side to the institutional side being responsible for running the bank channel at that time I was engaged with the bank trust departments and they would be hiring external managers to offer investment solutions to trust clients And I began working very closely with the portfolio managers.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Because there are so many issues swirling around right now and that is up for the individuals who have all the information Cuomo is expected to face a judge on November 17th I'm Brian shook And I'm Charlie peloton Bloomberg world Hank waters stocks head into the weekend at records traders were weighing disappointing earnings and bond market gyrations amid concerns over inflation and monetary tightening Apple after earnings was down 1.8% Amazon after earnings down 2.1% Tony dwyer is equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity and he told us you've got to keep the losses at Apple and Amazon in perspective So Amazon and again I'm not giving a recommendation either way I can't talk about individual stocks But Amazon factually is where it was last July July of 2020 it's below where it was in July of 2020 So the idea that Amazon has been the market leader over the last year is just inaccurate And if you look at Apple it's back to just a little bit above where it was In January of this year It's Tony dwyer so the Apple and Amazon reports clearly highlighted supply chain issues James camp is manager forced strategic income and fixed income at eagle asset management We have had so much stimulus put into the consumer pocket We have had such great recovery of consumer balance sheet and many of these folks are supplanting the experiential consumption to travel the movie theaters for buying goods We have massive demand in the way you correct massive demand as you move price James camp of eagle asset management as for the economic backdrop Christina hooper is chief global market strategist at invesco I think we're going to see a bit of a pickup in the fourth quarter as COVID headwinds have dissipated But then we should see some moderation in growth next year as we transition to a more normal state In Vasco's Christina hooper S&P up 9 up two tenths of 1% today the Dow of 89 at a record up three tenths as stack also up by three tenths of 1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie paddock this is Bloomberg This.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In kids ages 5 to 11 The CDC still needs to weigh in before younger kids could officially roll up their sleeves and advisory committee meets next week to discuss the vaccine The Albany county sheriff is revealing what happened when former New York governor Andrew Cuomo was charged with a misdemeanor sex crime Craig Apple senior says the charging document was leaked online before he could inform the Albany county district attorney But needless to say the document was signed the document was leaked So again things don't always work out as planned That's where we are today Mister Cuomo is scheduled to appear in November 17th and of any city court The Biden administration is moving to increase COVID testing in schools The education department is partnering with the Rockefeller foundation to accelerate school based screening testing for students and staff as soon as possible The foundation is distributing a startup guide for schools I'm Brian shook And I'm Charlie peloton Bloomberg world Hank waters Stocks head into the weekend at records traders were weighing disappointing earnings and bond market gyrations amid concerns over inflation and monetary tightening Apple after earnings was down 1.8% Amazon after earnings down 2.1% Tony dwyer is equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity and he told us you've got to keep the losses at Apple and Amazon in perspective So Amazon and again I'm not giving a recommendation either way I can't talk about it in the video stocks But Amazon factually is where it was last July July of 2020 it's below where it was in July of 2020 So the idea that Amazon has been the market leader over the last year is just inaccurate And if you look at Apple it's back to just a little bit above where it was In January of this year Count accords Tony dwyer so the Apple and Amazon reports clearly highlighted supply chain issues James camp is manager for strategic income and fixed income at eagle asset management We have had so much stimulus put into the consumer pocket We have had such great recovery and consumer balance sheet and many of these folks are supplanting the experiential consumption of travel the movie theaters for buying goods We have massive demand in the way you correct master demand as you move price James camp of eagle asset management As for the economic backdrop Christina hooper is chief global market strategist at invesco I think we're going to see a bit of a pickup in the fourth quarter as COVID headwinds have dissipated But then we should see some moderation in growth next year as we transition to a more normal state In Vasco's Christina hooper S&P up 9 up two tenths of 1% today the Dow of 89 at a record up three tenths has stack also up by three tenths of 1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie palace this is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Looking for approval to use its vaccine on Children, 12 and older in the EU, United States and Canada. Or Pfizer is planning to test their vaccine on younger Children live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers. Studios. This is global news. 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick tank powered by more than 2700, journalist and analyst, more than 120 countries. Michael Bar This is Bloomberg Temple. Goodbye. Thanks so much Possibly. I thought, surely I would never say this number. 30 year per year Total return. S P x 10.5%. Yeah, here. I honestly never framed that It would be double digit. You know, my friends and I would talk about it all the time. We all came into the market roughly in the middle late eighties. And what to run the market has had during our investable lifetime. We think about our Children now. Well, they have that I can't imagine. I got a 10 year. 1.5% where it is, I I can't imagine. So you think about you know the next generation and how they're going to prepare? You know, for a longer and longer life. You think about some of the returns they can expect. In their 41 case in their IRAs and things like that again, given the returns that you just mentioned 10% compounded is just extraordinary and accounts for, you know, a lot of obviously a lot of household wealth out there, and the question is going forward. What are those returns going to look like the green on the screen? Now? That's very different than futures this morning, which were mostly red to go through it down up. 100 SPX up six. Even NASDAQ 100 gives us green on the screen now. Up nine Those levels 3 34,008 0 S and P 542 96. We made a dash for 4300. I don't believe we got their NASDAQ 100. Nowhere near 15,000 just extraordinary part. Yes, it's just been. It's been interesting and again. He's like Tony Dwyer said. Yeah, absolutely. And for me, the issue is is the Federal Reserve and that's You know the first lesson I learned on Wall Street, and it seems to be the one that is Most powerful don't fight the Fed and the Fed is obviously just been extraordinary, supportive of risk assets, uh, into the July meeting. We'll see what the Fed does Right now. We're focused on economic data, including jobs Day on Friday. Stay with us. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is a Bloomberg pursuits..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tony Dwyer, thank you so much way too optimistic there with Canaccord ingenuity with our news in New York City is Michael Bar. Tom Paul. The slow work of sifting through the debris of the collapsed Florida condo building is now into its sixth day. The number of confirmed dead is an 11 about 150 people are still unaccounted for. And Surfside Miami Dade Mayor Daniella Levine cover We are exploring all possible avenues that they identify and we're going to continue and work. Ceaselessly to exhaust every possible option in our search. Levine Cava says the wait for news is excruciating for relatives. U. S troops are making progress on their withdrawal from Afghanistan. Bagram Airfield, which was once the hub for air strikes and other military operations is nearly a ghost town as U. S forces pack up and leave General Austin Miller, the head of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, told ABC s Martha Raddatz. Is concerned the Taliban will see opportunity to reclaim power in the region. How alarmed are you? The loss of terrain and the rapidity of that loss of terrain has to be concerning. We're starting to create conditions here. That doesn't Won't look good for Afghanistan in the future. If there's a Push for a military takeover. General Miller says the U. S will keep an eye on Afghanistan from afar, but it is harder. Many countries are fighting. New Covid 19 outbreaks due to the highly contagious dealt a variant of the virus. Officials are first person to increase vaccination rates to halt the spread of the variant in California's Los Angeles County officials are recommending that even fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors. Meanwhile, Moderna is.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tony dwyer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The S and P 500 little changed at the open at 38 01, the Dow Jones industrial average Also little changed down 14 points at 31,055, the NASDAQ's up 2/10 percent or 21 points at 13,095 10 Year. Treasury of 4 30 seconds. You have 1.11% yield on the two year 20.14%. Nymex crude oil is down 6/10 percent, or 33. Cents a 50 to 89 a barrel Comex gold is up 6/10 percent, or $10.40. At 18 54 60 announce the euro 1.2158 against the dollar, the yen 103.93 Tom and Paul They're in Moscow. Thank you so much. We appreciate that, Tom. Let me bring back a great name from Wall Street lure Prudential Bache Securities back in the eighties and early nineties. That's where some of the best analysts on Wall Street were trained. It's where they cut their teeth. And then they went on to all sorts of fame and fortune. Tony Dwyer can't Accord ingenuity, chief market strategist That's where he started his game back in the eighties. Tony, Thanks so much for joining us here, you know, it's just extraordinary time. In the marketplace. We're dealing with a pandemic. We're dealing now, with some political issues coming out of Washington, but it's still early in January. How do you think about your 2021 outlook given all of these external Variables buzzing around the fundamentals of this market. No, Paul. Thank you for the leader that brought product great memories back to make it time goes by quickly, huh? So 2021. There's this great fear in the marketplace that were similar to where we were in 2000 valuations or high Equity offerings are historically high infotech and mega cap. Stocks are leading the charge, and people said she isn't it just like the bubble. And it couldn't be further from the truth. And while those things are accurate, back then credit was a mess. The Fed it tightened. Real set. The real Fed funds rate was making a peak corporate credit was dislocating and the yield curve was inverted. We have the opposite view of credit right now, credit is The corporate yield. You're making a record low. The real Fed funds rate is making is in negative territory coming off of the recession and lastly and comparison to that period. The valuation in 2000. Which is it the current will, which is you know the current levels right around that that point that was on peak earnings were coming off a trough. Earnings. So are 2021 Outlook. Paul is constructive. But you know again, we think it's going to be similar to the post 2009 environment where you could get a multiple compression because earnings air jumping so much, so should be a good year. But not the kind of year we just had. Yes. So that's kind of where I wanted to go to Tony. It seems like we think about the performance of this equity market. You know, since the lows of March and you could really point to the Federal Reserve and the liquidity That the Fed injected into the marketplace and then, of course, fiscal stimulus with more to come as being big, big supporters of the equity market. It feels like at this point. Now corporate America has to come through. With earnings. How do you think about earnings here as we begin the fourth quarter earnings season, But how do you feel about earnings in 2021? Pie. It's extraordinary. You know, I even roll my eyes have come on the show. And I've said it so often that we're in an environment with a record historic amount of access liquidity and what that simply means is money that is readily available. So you haven't economic and earnings problem when you have a need for money and no or limited access to it. The opposite is true. Today. We've never seen this kind of money growth and M two money supply. And readily available money. Plus the at you know, the financial markets are ripping. So that's helping available money via mutual funds and E T. F. So the amount of historic money availability is going to go into it fast. When we feel like everybody. I mean, I'm in a little funk now myself because of the whole sitting home a covert thing without freedom, So when that unleashes is able to be unleashed, it's gonna lead to a significant Second half ramp in corporate profits and into 2022. Go ahead time. So yeah, I'm loving this, Tony. But the heart of the matter is that Dwyer theory This goes back not to Prudential Bache. But this goes back to base of, I think, 1933 when wire into the door. Your core theory. Tony is you need a recession before you get gloomy. Are we near a recession? You need an inversion of the yield curve, which shuts down credit, which is your predecessor to a recession. That's when you want to get a little bit more cautious, and we had downgraded the market January of Of 2020, because those those influences in those things that typically happen ahead of a recession now I didn't expect him any minute recession when I did that, because we didn't have covert yet. Like You really do to be sustainably negative to really kind of quote unquote play the downside. You really need that Sustained negative economic outcome time. As you know, we just don't have that with the stage is set for a correction. You've never had this kind of optimism in terms of investor sentiment. You know the market's gone straight up all the influence. We now have stimulus coming out of Washington. Frankly, this environment reminds me very, very much of January, 2018. And we had a pretty sharp correction in January 2000 and at the end of January 2018 because of it, you know, it's an environment that's looking for a reason to correct but that macro background a better earnings, excessive liquidity. That means you want to be prepared to attack that decline and take advantage of it first is quote unquote play it like you would in a recession. E mean, Tony, what's so important here? Is the courage to be in the market. So if I was just by per chance, looking for an entry point How do you get into the Dwyer market if you've never been in it So we look for the tact that we have some tactical indicators We watch. I'll give you a very simple one time that I've given publicly before. It's a key indicator. It's what got us in the September swoon down 10%. In the October washed down 10% at the end of October. Those when you get those, how.
CNBC's Fast Money
Should I Be Freaking Out About All This Recession Talk?
"Tony Dwyer is here. He's chief market strategist at Canaccord genuity. Tony Welcome and you're saying you think we have had some the mini recessions but they're over now and it's clear sailing on on the show a few weeks ago we actually we called for a correction classic strategy and I I called it right but we you know it's it's John the Airways so it was a few weeks ago that we thought that the sentiment got bad enough and that some of the data was already discounted that it was especially on the ten tenure no yield dropping the ten year yield. It was time to get more offensive so the supporting evidence to that in the mini recession call is if you look back at two thousand eleven two thousand twelve when the pigs were there and Greece was going to get knocked out of the euro and the euro was going to break up. That's as bad as a trade war right so the ten year. No you'll got back below one and a half percent percents what was interesting is not tober. Two thousand eleven the stock market bottom down nineteen point six percent the tenure didn't bottom until July of that year so in that meantime the S. and P. early twenty two percent led by the defensive into the ten year yield low in July off their you went up up and additional thirty eight percent two until the ten year got over three and three percent so the whole point here is offense should be on the field not because I have some great economic prognostication Asian but all signs are that the ten year made allow and if that's true it's replicating the two thousand eleven twelve two thousand fifteen sixteen period. Were there was clearly an industrial recession or are you making a call about the ten year going back to three percent or above or I think it will go back to two and a half percent. Nobody on the Planet Planet Kelly thought that we were going to go back to one and a half percent at this point ten years into a cycle right so what I think is happening is going back and looking at the nineteen fifty sorry to do it to you going back and looking at the nineteen fifties. There were four recessions from one thousand nine hundred forty nine thousand nine hundred sixty one. They were very brief. The market only went down about twenty percent each time time and then the market went rip into new highs very similar to now and I think technology just in time inventory. More consumption is a percentage. GDP is preventing that official recession but clearly were having these mini recessions driven by global industrial output and maybe hold argument over whether we are aren't going to have one on keeps confusing the picture because what's really happening. Is You have a bunch of growth scares you have quarters or GDP goes negative or almost goes to zero. You have market correction of ten to twenty percent but that's it's a different story than everyone who keeps bracing for. We're going to have another financial crisis in here. It comes again Tony. Let me ask you this. Though I mean think about what just happened in the last couple of weeks we've seen a major moderation in the talk about trade. We've seen massive stimulus in China. We've seen of stimulatory action by the. We've had this balance in rates. No one thought they were going to go down to one five or four or five or something like that. It just seems like we're in a spot here to get out of your mini recessions what we need to do ten years on from this economic crisis that we had. It seems like it's getting a little untenable isn't it. I mean that's the thing is it sustainable and the other point about getting back up to three thousand. It doesn't break out so what's the thing that breaks it out this time in a sustainable fashion. ECB totally disappointed in action last week there. They're coming. Terry in terms of what they were going to do to make sure that inflation got back to where they want it to be. As what drove rates in the market in the spike in the tenure they got ahead of it not by the raised by Blah Blah so I don't really care if it's twenty five or fifty basis points if they do fifty basis points on Wednesday and say we're done for the rest of the time. Market's GONNA get creamed right. They need to get ahead of the market. The highest interest rate cannot be the Fed funds rate right so what gets us over three thousand and that Dan again the the global economy's week. I'm not going to be the straps getting on here telling you oh it's good. It's getting less bad in the data. If you look at the purchasing managers there's breadth the purchasing managers index positive that's inflected off below the same thing with the OCD leading indicators competent leading indicators for the thirty six countries countries. They follow. It's inflicting off the low you can't have the market is a negative when you hit the highest level of all time but the sequential data's rolled over so that's a sale and then you hit the worst level fall time and the squinched out is getting better and that's a sale to right so. I think that the data is going to get better. Give us the playbook then what does it. What does it look like offense. I I mean Kelly. This is offense this everybody's meaning consumer discretionary financials industrials the motorcycle parts attack and again. This was our call from a couple of weeks ago where you get this reflation trade as long as the. Fed stays ahead of the curve and what shut this whole game people to put this on before their decision Wednesday. That's a big call. You make a caller. You don't know you know the views of fast money. No I'm not the greatest of all times but but again and the whole key to this thing is the Fed has to get ahead of the curve. They have to convince the market that we're not going to become Europe and go into negative I so I asked a salesperson today. Who I begged literally bagged two weeks ago. I did it on their please. Refinance your debt. Please one point four percent refinance your loan right right so I went over to the desk today I said. Did you refinancial no my my husband wants me to wait for lower rates okay. That's what the Fed wants to avoid read. Stop waiting for lower rates as low as it's going to get. Let's get in there so you know this kind of churning. We're seeing in the market today. I think has more to do with got extremely overbought in two two weeks right so maybe oil is an excuse and the Fed meeting who's going to really take an offensive playbook into bed meeting and I don't want. I don't want to suggest to to the to the viewers that I'm GonNa be calling the next tick. I'm awful at it. That's why should refinance. I think I think they they should refinance. You could have a pullback in rates. You know what's going to be interesting is to see how Saudi Arabia response to the oil crisis. You know it's not a news item or they blow up their biggest thing and they're like okay. We're good so I'm kind of waiting and to see what the global response is to the whole attack and that may create a temporary law. You can take advantage of and get offense. Thanks thank you
Tony and Dwight
Rick Pitino says in interview that "I'm finished coaching"
"Last a little clipper is just a few seconds. Rick Pitino talking to Doug Gottlieb on Fox Sports radio late last night about his life. Now the same question, I'm asking me before wouldn't the heck are you doing you're no longer coach? And so I get up in the morning at five thirty I put on my gym shorts. And I have no place to go. So I say that because I do miss it terribly says you'll never go back coaching.
Tony and Dwight
Papa John's Schnatter making new claims of company corruption
"The drama meter is pegged when it comes to Papa John's pizza John Schneider claims that CEO. Stevie, Richie of accessing confidential information from, Schneider's computer files? To a pair of unnamed company underlings who were having. A fairy says Just keeps getting just, keeps, getting better, than, the CEO Steve Ritchie replies once again John is making untrue. Disparaging statements and self-serving attempt, to distract from the damaging impact his own words. And actions have had, on the company and stakeholders he. Really was to be on that pizza box does he. I mean what we say about a women's skirts SCO billionaire scorned. Yeah lookout cages, bus. And billboards to put your face on it on that note. Since we we've been talking about Rick. Pitino and John Schneider in the same light there's sort. Of the same person they don't can't figure out just we earn people's respect that's all you gotta do man at burn everything. To the