20 Episode results for "Tom Rogers"

Fast Money 11/08/18

CNBC's Fast Money

45:59 min | 2 years ago

Fast Money 11/08/18

"Are you prepared to navigate today's bond market's at MFS we help advisors help their clients by assessing market risks and finding opportunities. Learn more at MSN dot com. Thank you guys. Fast money starts right now live from the NASDAQ market side overlook in New York's Times Square, I'm Tyler Mathisen in for Melissa Lee. I am not in Kansas anymore. I hear traders tonight pizza, Jerry, Brian Kelly, then Nathan guy Adama and tonight on fast. We are all over the big after hours movers. We're going to start with Disney. We got activision dropbox all reporting earnings moments ago. Those conference calls are underway will bring you the latest details on that. And the media mogul Tom Rodgers will be here to give us his reaction to Disney's earnings. And what it could mean for the media space in the future of TV and entertainment how we consume it. First we start with the big story of the day. The Federal Reserve keeping rates white where they have been but saying it is on track to continue raising them. Steve Liebmann is still down in Washington. I told you to get on the train steam, you didn't tell the producer of the show Tyler. No, I put in a good word. If you could send a note next time, but meanwhile, let's talk about the affirmation Federal Reserve, which kept interest rates unchanged in the member meeting. The Rangers to to shoot a quarter percent for that overnight funds rate, but did signal that rate you're going to continue to rise the market generally taken the language of the feds to mean, another quarter point is coming call it in December. It's about an eighty percent imacs you'd be higher since we last checked out, and you can see what the outlook is for March and for September, the fed had some really positive worries about the US economy, repeating a lot about what it said last time. So the markets continue to strengthen economic activity is rising in a strong rate. And the unemployment rate has declined they said household spending also growing strongly, but one tweak they made making note of the recent GDP report and some other reports that business investments moderated from prior rapid pace. Now, the fed contingency inflation near the two percent target. Okay. So all of this sets up a potentially fraught meeting for December. Where markets expected. The fed to hike for President Trump, as you know, is complained that the central Bank is moving too fast undoing what's being done by the tax cuts to speed up the economy. Fed officials argue that the current rate is low enough to still be stimulating economic growth, given the high rate of growth and the low level of unemployment they say policy should be. Hey, at least neutral if not even a bit above neutral. But those guys are going to be the questions for December and for twenty nineteen and I don't know maybe want to debate them. Now, you know, the the question for me, Steve is whether the fed could not not raise interest. It could not raise interest rates in in December after having been jawbone by the president. If they didn't raise them, wouldn't they be accused of caving politically. Okay. So let's do one of those all things being equal. Tyler let's say that the job number come in December pretty strong. Let's say the inflation rate remains higher. I think that's the case. I think the bar was high to be. Begin with for the fed not to hike, and I think President Trump's comments make it a little bit higher. I think if you go back there was a reason why President Clinton President Bush and President Obama all decided not to comment on the fed. And this may be the very reason because you win you do. So when you make comments about interest rates you raise that bar for them not to hike. All right now. Go get on the Amtrak. Steve Steve policeman. Thanks, alrighty. Despite all the worries over the Fed's next move. The Dow managing to end the day in the green is you see on that chart. It was up and down day stocks have been slowly, but surely climbing back from their October lows the Dow up now seven percent since then less than three percent away from its all time highs, but not much has changed since October. The fed is still raising rates rates are still rising, and trade fears is still looming. So what does the market think is different now, Mr. Donald J well before we even start, you know, we've been doing this time. Pedro. Well. We make it a chain which twelve year, right? And this is Jim maiden. Boy. This is the first time I've ever had. I haven't had so much fun ever seen. You look. Party here there people. There's beverages out. There were different gonna show called power lunch. It has neither power nor lunch. Entirely different guys, sir, fun and foods if there was a mount Rushmore CNBC your honor your. My right here. Right. Given the question. Oh, October is different Tober. I don't think anything's different all other than the fact that the markets come back in a significant way when the s&p was down five five and a half percent. A couple of weeks. Mel looked at me and said, gee, what do you think? I said, I think we got another eight nine percent to the downside. She said really I said really now, you know, what it got down about eleven eleven half percent. I thought it had another three percent. I was wrong with that said the headwinds in my opinion are still there the headwinds she talked to St. Lifson. In fact, the fed is still in play without question on your show at power lunch today, you talked to Mr. Kvachin tweeden said that if the fed doesn't move in December. I think he used the word catastrophic crash or something like that. So those headwinds are still in place tie what go ahead. Well, I I actually think the market has changed a bit the sell off that we had in October told you that equity investors think that the economy is slowing down. But you look at the bond market the bond markets telling you all signs are great. Everything's fantastic. So either the ball, Mark. That's right or the stock market's right? And we still haven't hit new highs in the stock market. So I do think something's changed over the last. So Dan, what did the market need to digest in October? That's different now. If if he's right, and they were worried that the economy was slowing down. They should still be worried that the economy is slowing down. Right. Became makes a really good point. When you look at equity markets the world over are equity market to the only ones that are all okay when you think about Europe, and you think about Asia a lot more considerably in correction territory right now. So I think global investors have been pricing an economic slowdown for some time. The US still has been this really interesting pocket of positive sentiment. When you think about a handful of names, you know, what they are. It's the maga- if the Microsoft the apple Google in the Amazon in October first they made up three and a half trillion dollars market cap, and they were making up for a disproportionate amount of the performance here in the US we were already in a bear market. So if you think about it through the lens of equity investors, then you overlay that we have the ten year back at three two three. You have your dollar index. Breaking out to a back towards highs getting close to ninety seven again, there's a lot of potential headwinds. And then you throw in the situation would trade. And that is a thing that has the ability to really damp down global growth. Expectation trade is really what it's all about in my opinion. I mean, we got to the mid term the elected matter. I think it did. Because it just it proved that a lot of people said, well, it's priced into the markets. Tyler it clearly wasn't with the kind of a move that we got yesterday. Right. And now today everybody's still trying to digest everything. So you're now focused on fed and the feds they've been so transparent. They're going to raise obviously in December. Right probably due to three next year. But they still will be looking for the data and be data dependent on all of this. The real trade right now is is are we going to do anything in terms of the trade itself, the tariffs? Right. I mean, that's what I think this market is trading off of right now. And when we got in positive days, it's because people feel like, you know, what President Trump is finally get a sit down with she and they're going to work something out at some point. But that's what everybody's focused on. Now. I think the feds. Transparency gets that less of a ugliness in terms of the market right now. And once we got through the midterms now people understand there's going to be checks and balances there's going to be a house in the Senate different sides. It's going to check with the president for sure. And that's going to keep things somebody say think all three of those things matter. I mean, trade matters. No question about it. In other words, the fed matters to because again, the fed that market is telling you, the fed may be making a mistake, then add in the dollar as Dan mentioned. You know, what I failed the dollar is the new Vicks the higher that goes the more risk. There is in the global economy. I think all three of those we argue about which one which one it's all three of those that are concerned for this. I would just had one of the point to is really volatile November has the potential to really obviously be like some sort of consolidation phase when we get close to that g twenty and if nothing comes out regarding trade, there's expectations are getting very high. I think that's a huge mistake for investors. And then you get to December nineteenth, and you have this fed meeting, and they did not have they had a small statement today. You know, they're gonna press conference press conference and every meeting going. Has the potential to be a very volatile month in my opinion. Listen, I don't wanna talk. Once you three think, it's one eight one b and one c in terms of importance. I agree with Pete. The tariffs are important. But you know, we say when the president our president is ready to make a deal. There's going to be a deal mate. I think that's totally incorrect. I don't think the Chinese are in any rush to make a deal, quite frankly, nor should they be in the President Trump will say correctly that their markets down. Thirty percent is down is four five percent. I get it through his lens. We're winning. But that's not. I don't think that's what the Chinese look at. I think they're playing five to tenure game. They can play they can play along probably take more pain. I would you know. A lot of pain. I would say already they've already started to feel some of the pain. And I think that they would want to sit down and try to get something figured out. And the fact that we don't have anything figured out right now Tyler that's what we really heard from the industrials. Right. I mean when we went through the earning season so far thicker seventy five percent through the SAP earnings when we've gone through it that's been what what's really been the concern right now is there's no visibility going forward for a lot of these companies. So their guidance is very difficult. Very cloudy for everybody to read through feels to me like the story of twenty nineteen is going to be not necessarily in this order trade number one interest rates number two and how the markets react to probably decelerate corporate profit growth guys. Yeah. There was one statement in that statement that that everyone said was a big snooze or it was about cap Bax about corporate cap X. And that was the thing that is decelerated from the first half of the year. The thing that those tax cuts were targeted at the end of last year. So if we start anniversary those as we. Get into the beginning of two thousand nineteen that is a huge problem. Especially now that you have this divided government. And you do not really have the potential for the sort of tax cut that could kind of get things juice the way we did the first half of this year. It was fun hanging with you. Yeah. I like this hang you, very very, very good. What do you think? Hey, t MAC, David. Our next guest says the market is hovering near a key level. And we could be shaping up for a year end rally. Todd, Gordon trading analysis dot com is over at the plasma plasma to break down the charts. Todd. What are you see? Hey, tyler. Yeah. A lot of discussion going on about the two hundred eight moving average and a lot of people get very excited with broken the two hundred days if you buy or sell this is show you says do neither just be aware that you're in a very big period of conflict. So to put it in context here. This is the SNP since the credit crisis low, and I'm going to show you three examples of times that we've attacked a two hundred day and then gone into consolidation. Number one. Here is right around two thousand ten again here in two thousand twelve a third time all the way up here in two thousand fifteen into sixty which you'll see each occurrence lasts approximately ninety two days Andrea days hundred and forty four days. So what does that need as we bring it to the to the current market situation? I would say the first time we've attacked the. Moving average the two hundred day is right around October tenth. So if history is any guide to what's going to happen in the future, you tackle one hundred days onto October eleventh that puts you roughly into March one. So what could that mean with everything we're talking about in the desk, it could mean a period of very high back and forth consolidation whipsawed nightmare for investors. Navy a very good opportunity for traders. So I would say don't try to trade the breakouts or breakdowns now on a trend basis. You got to be nimble in here. But as I've said, if we are going to scoop, some longs, there's too strong sectors that we like number one consumer discretionary X L Y. We did the two hundred day moving average, stop Ron. We snapped back above it. Again. I'm not looking for an op breakout, but you nibble traders could try to test back up to the old highs at about one fifty let me show you this. This is the relative strength. We're taking the SNP divided by XL whi-, which is your consumer. Staples. You're starting to see this ratio turn up, which means consumers. Questionnaire starting to outperform the SNP you've got Amazon Home Depot built McConnell's those are your top three holdings in all are starting to come back. You led by XL why? Sorry, Amazon at twenty percent. The other one no surprise. This is a very clean strong chart is healthcare XL. We couldn't even get below the two hundred eight talk about a nice clean test. They're right back up the highs. Maybe we have a little bit of consolidation here. That would form what we call an inverse kind of head and shoulders that guy might have the ability to go up in break out to new highs. So like excell excell why any range-bound SNP looks like a demonic simply just say. Look just like a high. Listen. Something's money. There you go. I've got a quick question for you that very first chart you showed the five hundred you talked about that hundred days going all the way I'll till March. So you're expecting to see volatility really start to accelerate back into the market after we were at twenty to twenty eight in that very big large movement. We have now back to sixteen but you're expecting to see volatility spiked back up above twenty again. Maybe even over thirty from looks talking Vicks. Right. You talk. Yeah. I think what twelve is probably the new twenty in the vix. So this is this is this is trading days. This is not calendar or weeks, you're talking one hundred trading days, maybe that new norm as at twenty Vic support. Yeah. We could have a real period of back and forth there and the s&p. So as it trader stay nimble, maybe us options, right Pete. But yeah. Expect high volatility just stay all right? Todd, Gordon of trading analysis dot com. Thanks very much guy. What do you think? More volatility. Oh without question. I think patriot would say the same thing is now below twenty. But I thought the vixen top out of thirty. But let me mention one specific stock that he mentioned he'd being. Mcdonald's. I think we've all been universally extraordinarily bullish on McDonald's for good reason stock has been on believable. And I think it made an all time high within the last couple of days if not today, if you look at their margins outstanding the last quarter was great, but you know, what at a certain point valuation. It's going to matter and it close to twenty three times next year's earnings in my opinion. Mcdonald's might be getting ahead of itself. And a lot of stocks find themselves in that type of inet sort of circle of maybe we should be taken profits here. I think that you gotta be tactical is what I take away from what Totta say you're in a market that is not easy to trade. It's not gonna be like the last several years. You gotta take your profits. When you have them. And you gotta buy the dips when you can and just trade around this market. You have to be tackled. This goes by really fast guys coming up checkout. Shares of Disney jumping after reporting earnings. We will tell you what Bob Eiger just said that has shareholder so excited. Plus, there's a new driver at tesla as the company names at chaired oversee Eline musk. So who is she? And what does it mean for the stock will explain later retail stocks have been ripping higher, but could the group beheading for a black Friday backlash? We've got the details. We live from time square in New York City, and there is much more fast money right after this break. Thanks for listening to the CNBC podcast will return after a short break, are you prepared to navigate today's bond market's at MFS. We help advisors help their clients by assessing market risks and finding opportunities. Learn more at dot com. All right. Welcome back to fast money. The question on every tesla lovers mind. Just got answered one longtime board member has been appointed to fill the chairmanship taking the reins from CEO, Elon Musk and fill the bow joins us from Chicago with more on the news. Hi, phil. Hey Tyler the new chairwoman. Not just chairman chairwoman of tesla is Robyn Denholm. She has been on the tesla board since two thousand fourteen she's the currency f o of Telstra. Telecommunications firm in Australia. She'll be leaving that job to take the full time position of tesla. Chairwoman former CFO of Juniper Networks, former Toyota executive, she's no dummy she understands what tesla and the auto industry is all about, but it brings up the question. What does the future hold for Elon Musk, and what will his role at tesla? Be like now that there's somebody other than him in that chairman position at least for the next three years. Well, remember he remains CEO of tesla. And while Robyn Denholm and. Elon Musk have said, look, it's great will work together. This is a company that's still marches to the drumbeat of Elon Musk. And other words, Robyn Denholm? We'll be engaged and everybody who I've talked to today who is familiar with her says, look she's going to be good chairwoman at the end of the day. This is still Elon Musk's company and Elon Musk's still hold massive influence in terms of the direction of this company. Even as they look to add two more, independent directors. Finally, take a look at shares of tesla versus the S and P five hundred and we're looking at this over the last three years, the reason we're bringing this up is because MacQuarie is out with a research note, saying look it's possible that tesla could get added to the S and P five hundred now this is not going to happen overnight. Remember to even qualify to be selected for the S and P five hundred the company's gotta have four profitable quarters in a row they had their first one in the third quarter. Elon Musk says they're profitable from here. I know Tyler let's see what happens over the next this quarter and the fourth quarter in the first quarter in the second quarter of next year. Then maybe. That conversation about the S and P five hundred can be revisited. All right, Phil. Thank you very much PK. What do you think? This does to the stock. Musk is still what the number one shareholder right number one shareholder. And also, it's this person was part of the board. And that's been part of the problem. They are the ones that kind of oversaw this this meltdown and didn't really do anything about it. So I would call it a half step a lot of people including myself. We're hoping there'd be something like when Sheryl Sandberg came in and and came into Facebook. This is not that at all in my view. I think it's a half step. You still have to have somebody independent. The board is also the issue here and along is not getting rid of this company. He still going to be she's kind of an inside. Outsider isn't. She would they have done better. What they have done better to go outside. I picked the right person. If somebody like, Tom Rogers, for example, to be on the show later, they tapped him on the shoulder soccer be five hundred dollars a share. There's going to be somebody on swap box. Smart. The said, this is the next trillion dollar company. I don't know about that. But I'll say this, and I'm not gonna pretend have been right over the last couple of months because I have not been. But if you look and see what tesla the stock was doing before Ilan must tweeted. Funding secured that stuck was going straight up things were trajectory was higher and this last quarter should've just built upon that. And I asked Jean Munster this, gene if you can back out that whole little foray with this stock betrayed in four and a quarter. And he said probably it would be given the last quarter. It's very interesting since since that moment there in the summer where where he blurted that out. And then he did the interview with the New York Times, and then he did the podcast with Rogan. It was down. But that's talk has come back. Listen, I actually think the most important podcast was care swishes last week with Rico. Yes, yes, where he got into a lot of detail. But I think there's an issue with that conversation too. Is that he said that they expect to be profitable from here on out the stock is just gone from what to sixty to seventy two three hundred and fifty dollars now. And so all the sudden expectations are very high again. I just don't think that's the sort of messaging that they need at this point. Because you're just setting yourself up for failure. Alrighty for more on what's next for tesla. Head on over CNBC dot com. In the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. Mom is always buy. And that's exactly what retailers are banking on for the holiday season with more deals than ever. But will the desk for discounts. Chris the stocks. Plus it's game on as the biggest gaming stocks in the space tried to take on fortnight. But the traders think there's only one stock that can be called the gaming king will tell you what it is much more fast money after this. ESPN its best quarter in quite a while in terms of sub losses, and what we're seeing there is continued erosion in terms of traditional subs, but the growth in the digital MVP continued through not only the year, but the quarter, and so the sub losses were abated substantially. That was Disney's chairman and CEO Bob Eiger speaking with Julia Boston about business at ESPN right after the company reported a big earnings beat the stock up. Just one percent after hours Pete you've been longtime Disney hold a booster. What do you think? Well, I like the numbers they put up it's great to hear about ESPN because forever that was something that was held out there for all of us to say, hey, look, look at this. Great crown jewel, right? But the problems bend the erosion that they've had if that's slowing. That's obviously something that's very positive, but they crush the earnings crest on the revenue. I think what they're doing is the right thing were they little bit late to going to the direction to compete with the Netflix of the world absolute. But this acquisition that they've made is giving them a huge piece of Hulu, which I think is great as well. There's a lot of positives now, but going forward still love to see a succession plan in place of some sort that we don't really have any view of right now. And the other thing is how fast are they going to be able to roll out this competition to get into the face of Netflix into the future. I think it'll come along very quickly now, but it's been a long time coming we. Had on to people earlier today on power lunch. One of whom said the stock is going to ninety five and Mario gabelli said the stock is going to one hundred fifty where you guys so well, I think the ninety five days are probably in a review mirror for awhile and we'll talk back into spring. This stock was floundering was trading ninety nine and a half dollars p was over there. There were few of us in the middle medicine. And all the sudden was announced gambling was legalized, and we talked about it on the show. He said that might be the lifeline that Disney. The stock needs whether justified or not the stock is rallied some seventeen and a half eighteen percent. So I think the ESPN woes are largely behind them. Now, it just comes down to valuation. Are you comfortable with Disney at a sixteen and a half seventeen time sword multiple with the rest of the space is probably half of that in August two thousand fifteen when the stock topped out near one hundred twenty two is trading above twenty times. So here, you are you have a lot more clarity on some of these businesses that were really put the stock under pressure where did it go down to eighty something? So I mean, this this stocks gonna make a new high without stable market right here. Got a reasonable valuation. And they've really kind of changed the narrative a bit. And once you get this other acquisition done you have this big chunk of Hulu. They can start really start talking about the future is far as how they're going to deliver this unique content. All right. Let's bring in Tom Rogers longtime media executive who was the first president of NBC cable starting CNBC also NBC's former chief strategist former CEO of tvos, currently executive chairman of the sports gaming and gambling company win view and a CNBC contributor, Tom. Good to have you here to be here. They don't do. The intro Pete made the Pete made the point that they have moved into streaming. But maybe not fast enough is that the way you feel the biggest issue Disney had this quarter is stopping people from spreading the ashes of their dead relatives around the Disney parks, but the stock is clearly not dead. It's alive as pizza Marielle actually said earlier as much as two hundred in the next two years, but I don't see a new life. Right here. The sports story is optimistic as he was about ESPN churn for the last quarter generally was terrible. People thought it was getting better in the in the second quarter and the third quarter turn across the industry. Got worse dish and direct TV which are third of that turn was horrendous. The news skinny bundles digital guys are not really making up for that. So I don't quite understand the optimism. And the cord cutting is still happening cord, cutting cutting is still happening is you're going to hear to stay pain. A lot more for sports rights too. Yeah. And the guy's point the big change for the sports networks and people involved in sports marketing is as massive new source of gaming revenue and gaming gambling revenues. They're going to inherit through the FOX acquisition about ten percent of draft king. But my prediction is Disney because of the Disney brand is not a I in mover. Well, that's that was what I was going to ask you, and that's that's that's not grabbing. What's there? It seems to me that there is an opportunity. You guys jump in here. There's an opportunity for a dedicated sports betting channel. But I don't know that that fits with Disney's brand. Well, it might down the road. I don't think they're going to move quickly. And you know, first mover means a lot in any of these businesses. I was surprised at Julius earlier interview that the FOX acquisition got very little mention that ended up being a smaller deal than it. Looks like they're going to get about thirty million of that seventy thirty billion of that seventy billion in consideration back. By the spin off the sky their assets. But they end up with no sports story here. They're getting rid of the regional sports. Channels Justice won't let them on it sky is going to Comcast the whole Sky Sports. European sports expansion story, isn't there? Yes. He mentioned that geo, but look NAT GO and FX do not a net flicks. Make and very interesting commentary out of out of Todd younger the media analyst great media analyst had a Bernstein that Disney was beginning to look more. Like, it was creating a CBS all access than a new net. Flicks. CBS all access going to be happy with sixteen million subscribers over the next couple of years. Obviously, Netflix has one hundred million going to three hundred million if he's right that's a whole different game. And I was surprised and Julius earlier interview. I didn't say that with this new studio superpower, the only studio superpower out there that they are going to be expanding the number of films if they're going after net flicks, you would expect in. Expanded film slate, and I didn't hear that at all. So I don't think they're going to be suffering earnings dilution that people will worried about with putting out fourteen billion dollars a new programming costs the way that net net flix next year. But you gotta have more modest ambitions about what this thing looks like I didn't hear a new life stocks alive. Great consumer economy. The parks will do fantastically in that. But it isn't transformational in terms of anything. I paid you had a question in terms of the gambling. And God brought this up. We talked about it that night when they talked about the gambling. And I know you're very heavily involved in that world. How big is it? And is that something that they should be much more aggressive with in terms of the approach from from Disney. I don't think there's any doubt they should be more aggressive. You gotta grab that. Because you got Amazon you got you got Google. You've got Facebook all looking at sports rights, if you're the leader in sports, right? And you're worried about declining ratings declining subscriber fees, and you got to look for a new revenue base to hang onto those rights to be the. Front bidder. The last thing you want to do is give up that new big source of revenue to somebody else guy. A good fight for it. Video game stocks have just got annihilated in the last couple of months, and when you think about this kind of grab content over the last couple of years. Do you think that Disney would move into maybe electron arch? Do you see the potential for synergies, especially as we see all this with sports? I think e sports is going to be huge. I think that each sport as an opportunity given the demographics that are actively engaged in east sports more than television sports viewing certainly if I was looking to expand a sports franchise. I would go heavily at east sports. Most successful games big money games or shoot 'em up game, so far, and I'm not sure that's going to change near term. But over the long haul. I think east sports is going to be huge peak to is a big one. And they'd mentioned this Bob Eiger synonymous synonymous with Disney is succession plan important in your mind. In terms of the transformation of a company succession plan is everything. I think you've got to really understand what you do to maneuver through a thicket of massively big companies just in the sports right arena. Guys who can bid on sports, and it not bothered their bottom line at all relative to how it would impact a Disney. But look this things in great shape. The stocks very much alive. Marrows is good a stock pornography. Gators anybody in terms of where this thing could go in the near term. I think in terms of long-term transformation. Succession means a lot. All right, Tom. Thank you very much. Great to be thanks for half. Tastic? Thanks for being with us coming up checkout. Shares of activision blizzard or blizzard plunging in the after hours and the gaming stock is stuck in a bear market despite blockbuster sales. So what gives we'll hear from the CEO plus retailers have been soaring. But with the holidays around the corner, some of the biggest players, it'd be diving right into major. Black Friday backlash say that five times fast. We will explain much more fast money ahead. All right. Welcome back. Everybody too fast money retail stocks, ripping higher head of the Super Bowl of shopping black Friday and some of the biggest players have pulling out all the stops to lure in shoppers ahead ahead of the holiday season. Let's go to our very own Courtney Reagan with all the details. Courtney. Hi Tyler well this year retailers. Black Friday plans are all about convenience and offering online deals weeks in advance WalMart is offering almost all it's black Friday deals online on Wednesday, November twenty first at ten PM eastern time that's two hours earlier than last year in hours earlier than targets online doorbusters which start early Thursday morning in store. Walmart deals will start at six pm on Thanksgiving Day. That's the same as last year, but shoppers can feel up with free coffee and cookies at WalMart stores starting at four o'clock targets opening at five that is an hour earlier and staying open an hour later than last year. Best buy Kohl's Macy's those doorbusters. Also start at five PM JC. Penney. Leads the pack opening doors at two o'clock on thanksgiving, both WalMart and target will have associates throughout the store checking out shoppers with mobile check. Cout technology to lessen the time that you wait in line Amazon target and best buy. They're all waving. Minimum purchase for free shipping throughout the holiday season. Walmart though sticking with a thirty five dollar minimum for free shipping Kohl's sticking with fifty and Macy's at ninety nine dollars. Walmart and best buy are offering. Some of those doorbuster deals online today. Other retailers have already done similar this year. Those goalposts are moving stores are opening earlier deals are being offered online earlier than ever before and shipping is free and getting faster Tyler Courtney. Thank you very much. So well, all these wheels and deals may be great for the consumer could it actually bring the retail rally to a screeching halt, Pete. I will never in my life. Go to anything called a doorbuster BUSTER. Ever ever? Not be lured. I. Be on that guy. But like Fridays now Winston, oh, I know, I realized that no I'll tell you. What's interesting, though, when you got somebody like target out there and a lot of these guys who offer the ecommerce side of things when they're doing the online a lot of the time. It's you order online. Then you go pick it up. Well, oftentimes, they can get delivery too. But a lot of people like to go over there pick it up. And they what are they end up doing? They actually ended up shopping at time. So you are still getting people oftentimes into these stores, not just getting the ecommerce side of it. But you're actually getting them in the store for one other item that they decided that hands your great for me, the free shipping is great for me. But it may not be great for the company. I think you're asking the right question. You know, we're seeing this stuff about employment at record lows. We're seeing wage increases. But we're also now starting to hear about all these things that are kind of getting consumers to to buy earlier giving them free shipping on I have to think for the retail stocks. This is the last gasp is far as into this holiday season. We're going to see real lot of just discounting, and we're going to see pressure on margins because of all this free shipping. I mean, look feign this. Look at what really started this retail rally. It was short-covering the big trade this year among hedge funds was long Amazon short retailers like Macy and on the lowest lows at the end of Tober use. Aw, Macy's drop Amazon ripping people on Weiming that position. So to me. I don't think there's a lot of you'll behind this. Then you get into some sort of black Friday price war. There's even pre black Friday sales. That's not a direction. You wanna go you fade it fade the rally? Thank you. All right coming up dropbox and activision on the move after earnings. We will bring you the latest on those reports, including what was said about the latest call of duty game. It was meant to be the fortnight killer. But did the games battle royale mode? Live up to the hype we will hear what the CEO had to say what's more fast money after this? There's a lot of misbehaving that goes on brakes naming welcome back on the activision getting crushed after ours. Crutched on earnings. It's just a month after the video game giant took the fight to fortnight with the latest title in its call of duty franchise Voces got the results of the call from Vancouver. Deidra, hey, Tyler will share thinking in the after hours on tolliday quarter outlook and dropping monthly active users total EMMY fell for a third straight quarter to three hundred forty five million from three hundred and fifty two million in q two now, Kim division may use declined the most while activision EMMY us they were up by one million quarter over quarter. This is the division that includes total. You just mentioned claw call of duty black ops. For now on the earnings. Call analysts press the developer on black ops for performance have a listen. Air engagement to date is better than any call of duty content in recent years and spectator viewing is higher than ever before. As a franchise quote duty has now generated more revenue than the marble semantic universe in the box office and double that of the cumulative box office of Star Wars. So impressive numbers. But this latest call of duty released is so important to the company because of its blackout battle royale mode. This is the answer to fortnight's runaway success in October, the company said that global sales exceeded half a billion dollars in the first three days, but that disappointed investors who wanted more activision blizzard sang on the call that they're confident and energized by performance so far, but Tyler fortnight killer that remains to be seen. And it doesn't quite look like investors are convinced of that yet. All right, did or thanks very much for more on what the results mean for activision. Let's get our game on with Michael. Listen to that. He's a former MVP at activision and the co founder of one of North America's first east sports organizations. Also, an investor in activision, what was the most important thing in this earnings report. I think what people are missing is the digital transition that the entire sectors doing it. We're still away from buying discs. We're still thinking about unit sales. It doesn't really matter anymore. If you listen to what management said it was all about reaching gays men in player investment. Meaning how many people are they getting how long are they staying in the games? And how are they spending in the game? It's not about what's being sold at a game. Stop or best buy it's about how long are the players playing in are they continuing to buy in the game. The other important thing that I took from the earnings call was I think everybody missed this the projecting over four billion in revenue this year from in game purchases, that's more that's more than half of the total revenue mix. I think that's the first time that's ever happened. So that's a huge deal. This is what happens when my son comes to me and says dad dad, can I buy this? And I said, well you already bought it. And and I have. No concept that what he's really buying is some sticker or slick or some additional powers, right? Yeah. That's where the revenue growth, that's where the revenue growth is. That's where the industry's moving. And obviously, the margins are a lot better. If you're not going through a physical brick and mortar store, you're just going direct to consumer. They have all the data at that point. And they're closer to the consumer. I think the other important thing if your son's playing fortnight, and I know we're going to talk about is the battle of the battle royale games, the people that are at home playing blackout right now paid sixty dollars for it. And actually, and then they're gonna buy stuff in the game. The people playing fortnight didn't buy anything when they got the game. It's the free download game. This massive difference in the model visit that you integrate job of making that digital if the revenue numbers are as strong. Mr. Kadett said poked all about that. Why did the stocks in a word? My son would use suck. Bringing it hard. I'm quoting him. I I would never use such words. Ios or the. Perplexed. I really don't know. I'm looking at the whole sector now in thinking, I can't believe why this isn't a huge by take two did earnings yesterday. Their digital sales were up significantly their new red Denver Dempsey's a great game is performing incredibly. Well, they've got a little bit of each sports exposure with NBA two K game. I think Eastport to your last guest. They saw said east sports is going to be the future. Obviously, I believe that I've been in the industry for sixteen years activism invested more than anybody of all the public companies in the sector, and he's kind of the great product greatest product out there. I think right now the floor is. Yes. So the shell. Shelhah the Florencio danced around this earlier with Tom Rogers, who by the way, Tom Rogers, studt we allowed to say that. Yes. Say the other. Content sort of talked about this. These stocks are now getting sort of cheap, even on a valuation basis isn't Disney or there's somebody out there looking at these as my question is electric arts precipitous drop activision precipitous drop to a certain extent, take two as well. Are they for sailing, you think would a company coming in gobble these companies up? I dunno Disney could at the right size. If what I think, you know when you look at. So there's a difference between the stock. So he take two's got a couple of huge titles. He's franchises their original IP that they own one hundred percent of activism blizzard all original IP, basically incredible franchises. They just said call of duty historically has done double the revenue of Star Wars box office, historically, that's a huge franchise to own. That's amazing EA is a little different. It's mostly licensed content. So I don't know if there is as big of a by or maybe because of the kind of content their licensing licensing, especially Star Wars. It does become more of a by dizzy, I think activists. Mission is to be the next is not to be acquired by it. So I again, I'm looking at you guys is like why why is this down? So what's the trade off that you were here? I mean, we saw this social media names that were valued over monthly active users engagement, and when you saw that turn down a few years ago in Twitter for couldn't have. I mean, it depends. How these stocks are being viewed by investors as milestones. And so if they're trying to get away from the unit, and we just saw this with apple is trying to do this to there's going to be a bit of a period where people are starting to digest. What that new business model is all right, Mike. Thank you very much. That's trade the sector guys. What do you like? Well, I'm still with Mike on this. I actually think is buying opportunity at this point. And particularly if you're talking about a longer term play. I mean, we're talking about ESPN is now covering e gaming Bobby Kotik talked about the audience out there. People aren't just playing these games there watching it. So it's a massive market here. I think on any weakness you buy them. All right. Thanks a lot guys. Thank you, Mike. Appreciate your being here. Tastic speaking to the gaming stocks. Check out the Kramer Cam. Madman himself speaking to the CEO of take to stress about his company and staying ahead of the competition. Tune in at the top of the hour for that. But I check out. Shares of dropbox cloud company soaring after hours could be assigned for another name in the good sign for another name in the space will explain as fast money picks up right after this. All right. Welcome back to fast money. Everybody. Got an earnings alert. Dropbox soaring nearly seven percent after hours following its earnings report Josh Lipton, just sat down with dropbox CEO drew Houston at the company's headquarters out in San Francisco. Hi, josh. Tyler so dropbox reporting. You're paying users twelve point three million in the corner that was better than expected also are PU so average revenue per paying user one eighteen sixty in the quarter that was also stronger than expected. So I did sit down with CO drew house tonight asked him about that metrics Pacific. What explain that strengthen the quarter? Here's what he had to tell me. We see that as a measure of how much value we're driving person scrubber and the way we drive out. You pursue subscriber is make the product better. And so there's a number of improvements we've made in this quarter in the last few quarters, and you think about new features and dropbox like smart sink and feature called showcase which ever sharing those are driving higher and higher adoption of our premium individual plans in the business version of dropbox. Now on the call of the company. See if will also given guidance Q four revenue three sixty seven to three seventy the street was at three sixty four. Also, the CFO Saint going to be raised their guidance for the year on revenue operating margins and free cash flow Tyler bacteria or Josh, thank you very much stock up strongly right now but down thirteen percent or so for the year guy. Would you buy it? Yes. And just turned it down and said if you can get comfortable with valuation in this you buy one because it's had a big selloff too. And Josh, by the way, is also you big fed a magnum PI. I mean, Josh Lipton is is Tom Selleck reincarnated, but I digress operating margins. The mustache having the whole thing's ridiculous ridiculous ridiculous. Tell you. What was ridiculous the operating margins? Close to thirteen percent strikes on freight and a half percent. I think the stock goes higher from here anybody else if that's what you're buying. You're buying the growth. You don't have to worry about the valuation as long as you have the growth, if the growth way, you've got a pro I think it dropped the dropbox and you get into the box out at least Slade and I see a massive opportunity at nineteen box. Bianco vio ex-. Speaking of the cloud stocks options traders are betting on even more gains for another name in the space Salesforce, Dan through it. The enterprise cloud here and that Salesforce dot com, call volume of two times out of put today kind of hot here. And there was the most active strike where the December one fifty calls about thirty two hundred of them traded on average about three fifty throughout the day. A lot of those looked opening and they looked like they're bought and what does trader targeting possibly their earnings in about twenty days. You're gonna report their Hugh, three obligation. That's a really tough way. I'm sure Pete will agree to look out that far out of the money and be buying calls. It a name where option prices are very expensive real quickly. Maybe why that one fifty strike. We have a one year chart here. That thing went into correction. It was down twenty percent peak to trough it broke down at one fifty look at where one fifty is. That is the intersection of the uptrend from the fifty two week lows and that breakdown level. So that seems like a level that traders are targeting into their Keith reprint create in the month. Just CEO's. I think of anybody out there is Benny often. I like what they're doing. They've done an amazing job of. Spending their money when they needed to to acquire other companies. I think of the cloud names, this one's my number one. All right number one, pick their gentlemen. Thank you very much for more options action. You can check out the full show that would be tomorrow at five thirty PM eastern time options action of next final trades. Love this time to the final trae. Let's go around the horn, Pete who I there's nobody better out there than Lululemon. Who me this thing's going higher? All right BK, people don't like oil here. I think counter trae neck so P by that one. Tyler you've just caught Pete had his lose a bunch. Yeah. Yeah. On duty. Leisure you go you see that thing about eighty before the end of the year giddy up. You're not sure. Sure. Do you have? Mood. I tell them. Loves this. This was also easy. Right. Thank stomach to shakes lamps Candice. You know, what's going up fast? Hilmi discovery communications that comes out there. Silent disco little disco. Right. Well, gentlemen. Thank you very much. We were really really fun. All right. That does it for us mad money with Jim Cramer. We'll begin in just a few seconds time right to be with you all. Awesome. Podcast is sponsored by MFS investment management.

Tyler Disney Pete CEO Federal Reserve Amazon president CNBC activision tesla Elon Musk President Trump ESPN Tom Rogers dropbox Todd Bob Eiger
Fast Money 08/04/20

CNBC's Fast Money

48:04 min | 6 months ago

Fast Money 08/04/20

"Today every answer matters more than ever before because whether it's about health deliveries or finance some things just can't wait. That's why IBM is helping businesses manage millions of calls, texts, and chats with Watson Assistant. It's conversational I designed to help your customers, find the answers they need faster no matter the industry. Let's put smart to work visit IBM DOT com slash, Watson Assistant to learn more. I in this bass money tonight straighter line of guy me, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan and Chris Perron Tonight on fast a barrage of big name earnings just hitting the street will bring the trains and all of these mega after hours movers plus a pair of retailers topping the tape today we'll tell you what here's of target and Costco to new all-time highs and later Chris. Brown says, this industrial stock is building up a breakout what he is seeing the charts. That's got him feeling. So bullish, but we start off with a big earnings alert on Disney shares point positive after initially dropping on the result Julie Boston's got all the details on the company's quarter Julia. Well Melissa lower than extract expected revenue but stronger-than-expected bottom line results those earnings of eight cents per share were rather than the loss of sixty four cents per share that analysts had been anticipating. That was because of lower production and marketing costs. Now, what's really driving Disney higher now with almost four and a half percent is that news that Disney is embracing is direct relationship with consumers announcing will offer lan to Disney plus subscribers for an additional thirty dollars on September fourth. It will also put that movie in some theaters that are open. Now, this is a dramatic move dramatic. Change, Disney's distribution model in light of the pandemic, and it is sending a theater chain stocks lower right now, we see cinemark shares down over four percent I maxed down two percent and AMC entertainment down over one percent. Now, Disney also announcing that it's going to build a new director consumer international streaming service building on a bright spot in the quarter, which was Disney plots topping sixty million subscribers that had more than two and a half million new subscribers since the end of the quarter Disney now has in total over one hundred, million subscribers across his direct to consumer businesses. Despite the challenges of the pandemic we've managed to take the liberty and innovative steps. Running our businesses. At the same time we've also been very focused on advancing and growing our direct to consumer business, which we see as our top priority and key to the future of our company. The impact of Covid was felt deeply particularly at Disney's parks division. The company says it experienced a three and a half billion dollar adverse impact in segment operating income due to cove it Melissa all right Julia. Thank you. Let's go. there. Are Terriers take on Disney here I tim Seymour you've been an owner of Disney. What do you think of this quarter especially in the emphasis now on dat see in the business that seems to be one of the major reasons why the stock reversed. Well I I think there's mixed views on this. Our friend Tom Rogers is GONNA come on in the second. So curious his view, but I think. is an incredible opportunity for Disney if you think about where they have the ability to bring some of these studio releases straight in the Milan delay was not something I think we were surprised about this is a little bit more of a surprise, but but ultimately, this is about Disney plus this is about all that you know when we got the. Numbers when they first came out? We heard fifty seven and a half. Now it's sixty and a half. If you count the first part of the quarter this great news, and if you think that they haven't even rolled out in Europe yet that's September fifteenth Latin America comes later on in the year and the fact that we know baked into these numbers. Were down eighty five percent in consumer parts experiences, and we know that that's forty percent of the business and we know that that's going to come back I. Don't know when and it has been slower and I think there's been some false starts with the rollout but to to question Disney on this I think is is to be looking at the wrong thing. The fact that they be able to be a little bit more efficient on the margin that they could eke out at least more profitability than expected. I. Think is good news. It's all about Disney plus what's the multiple you WANNA put on that look around the world look at net flicks. What's the multiple you put on that that's my argument for for Disney The question though is, should it all be about Disney plus when as you said, Tim, parks are about forty percent of the business. We know it will come back and you you hit it on the head. We don't know when so guy dominant at this point do you give Disney a free pass on forty percent of its business? Is, so sexy and appealing right now. Doesn't matter what I what I give it a free pass not the market seems to be given a free shuttle give free. Well silly Tim will hit all the salient points I. mean he's close to a five billion dollar loss I mean in terms of Disney plus and you know this I looked at myself rich greenfield's been tweeting about this. But you know there are for dizzy plus customers is down significantly soda his point and I've pointed Tom Rodgers will probably mentioned if you sort of give it away that's going to be what's going to happen in terms of Arpaio, which is going the wrong way I understand they. have to go this direction. They should have done Hamilton quite frankly at thirty dollars because they probably would've scored with that and as we get closer to September fourth my senses that thirty or twenty, nine, ninety, nine number is probably get cut in half. That's just me sort of guessing here. But typically like we've seen before with Disney, the reaction right after earnings as lower they do some jawboning aftermarket and it goes higher and the markets giving complete pass in my opinion Dan what do you think? Yeah I think it's probably too soon to give him a pass. I mean, I think tim breaks a great point I mean Disney plus is the direct to consumer is the future but right now when you think about what's going on I, think I just mentioned that the average revenue per user was down quarter over quarter or excuse me yes quench only eighteen percent. So there's some funky stuff going on there and I don't think the Milan release at thirty bucks is going to help that too much or at least help advance adoption of this product right now. So the way I think about it is this you know I think you would have liked to have seen them almost kitchen sink. The guidance going forward and have investors kind of think back just listen these guys are going to need to quarters. We have no visibility on when they're going to be able to reopen. Right? We have no visibility on when we're going to have a vaccine. So the stock raging four percent in the after hours breaking out of this downturn I don't think is particularly constructive I think we'll have some comments on that because I don't think the fundamentals are really lining up especially when we're seeing everything make new all time highs I think investors are looking for things that they think can play catchup. This one's not there yet. This is going to take a little while what do you think Chris? Doc responded here after hours. I. Think it speaks to the idea that the is pretty low coming into this afternoon that one fifteen, one, sixteen area was just major support. We hold that it looks like we're going to hold that an open tomorrow above one, twenty two that was the July Fifteenth High I. think that's a big step in the right way forward junior day comes to. Play one twenty-three you start to get above that. You look at one, thirty, five, one forty again. Now, if you put this in context of the bigger picture, Disney's really been sideways for five years knows made any money here in five years so I think the bigger question is is a step in the right direction here the start of a bigger longer term breakout get above twenty three. All right for more insight on the numbers. Let's get to Tom Rogers the mentioned town Rogers warmer these cable president and CEO, he's now executive chairman of engine media and a CNBC contributor also a friend of the show Tom always great to speak with you. I know that you're on with our friends over at squawk this morning you said, the Disney earnings will be terrible. What what do you think with the stock up about four percent three percent of the after session. Well, I don't get too focused on these earnings for this quarter. Everybody knew wasn't going to be a good quarter. Maybe. It was a little bit better than people thought it would be but is still have the same question. Here is the decline in the traditional business gonNA be too weighty to overcome the growth in the in the streaming new business and so far. The verdict on that is way out you know since Disney plus was announced. The stock is down about twenty percent Netflix during that time is up about seventy percent I think Netflix has proved a lot about its model when it comes to streaming that Disney has not proved yet. Yes. They've done very well in terms of additional subs. But what kind of turn do we have here particularly when the Roloff, what type of engagement do we have given the limited amount of original production? Are we going to see anything with pricing power all given what turned engagement look like and so there's a verdict here that you can't render yet and we're not going to know for awhile I will give them credit for the move on Move I. think that is actually pretty interesting. They had to do something with this movie obviously, they couldn't put it into theater near. So, not just charging thirty dollars but charging thirty dollars if you are Disney subscriber if I understand that trying to get it to. Collecting the direct to consumer revenue and trying to drive Disney plus subscribers at the same time I don't think that's a formula for most of their big releases, they have too much to protect in terms of the theatrical window movie releases for Disney fuel, the entire engine that whole company from theme parks to consumer products, etc needs the big movie theatrical release. But for purposes of the they're down with right now pretty creative. Can you make the argument Tom that what Disney pluses right now is Netflix's in the early days I mean Disney. Plus I understand your concerns and that the way too early to Kasim's verdict but it reached its target for Patriots scrubbers four years early, it's already building a. International product, which is what Netflix is currently doing I mean it does seem like it's fast tracking the streaming side of the business. Well, I don't think it's Netflix's for a couple reasons. First of all NETFLIX's doesn't have to worry about all the baggage that Disney has an I don't just mean the Cova issues that it's dealing with. Yes. We know everything that they were hit with. It was pretty bad but coming out of it, they still have a mess on their hands. They're they're dependent in terms of their moody mood media networks on the cable. Satellite Bundle. That's going to be dwindling down to sixty million maybe below there's nobody that's got more at stake there than ESPN and the Disney networks in terms of what they'd pull out of that bundle. They still have a mess when it comes to ratings particularly in the kids sector, which has been harder hit with ratings decline than anywhere with that comes advertising decline. They now have the added pressure of other competitor trying to collapse at the window and allow people to think they can stay on their couch and not go to the movie theaters. So they have enormous baggage messed get through coming out of this. They're also not netflix because Disney plots by itself is a narrow service it's its kids and family, but it is not broad-based adult entertainment and Hulu, really looks like it having some issues it has only half the sub says Netflix's in the. North, American market But looks like it grew less than Netflix's in terms of Saab's which many thought North America was getting saturated for net and who grew last and so this new what sounds like adult international entertainment, which I guess is going to take the place of Hulu as a major national player may be an answer that begins to build the blocks that that Netflix's has but they got a lot of pieces together to put together to begin to say they got a model approaching at. Thomas always, it's amazing to have you on. You know what I think of you. The word that comes to mind obviously is stud, but my question is somewhat out of the box we've talked about this on and off. But everybody's tiktok is on everybody's lips. I understand that Disney has a myriad of problems and this is the last one they probably need. But in a calmer time, a more normal time would accompany like tiktok makes sense for Disney. To to sort. Of Insert in their platform. I think you put your finger on the conversation that was missing across all the Microsoft Tick Tock News. That the technology companies are after this and media companies are not and the first thing that came to my mind this world like the kids and teens are going That's the sector that that Disney was all about and the extent that it is not a player here doesn't have the balance sheet I don't think to be a player the Fox acquisition. Even without all the code issues dealing with and I think that's another thing that the verdict still out on this. Vision. You know they were supposed to be about all this content that was gonNA fuel dreaming business. What it's really done is opened up more exposure to the traditional linear television business, and if I was surprised by one thing over copay related, the Disney is fx their big adult brand that they're putting behind Hulu when it came out of everybody being at home and looking at the ratings, their their ratings in the key demo were down seventeen percent in the quarter. So I think. They haven't yet shown themselves to be masters of that acquisition I. Think this was a bridge too far for them even of Covid hadn't hit him but it's the right question. Tile always great to have you. Thanks so much for joining us. Thanks for having me Tom Rogers. All Right Tim. What would you ask on that conference call? Well what I'm I'm curious about is not only what can they expect out of their their roll out in Europe and Latin America but ultimately where they do think that they have an opportunity to expand their demographic I think that is a critical point that Tom brought up I do think when you're when you're an investor and Disney and I actually push back on the argument that they're down twenty percent since they. Announced Disney plus I. I would argue that that was actually a catalyst to the stock beginning to rewrite going into Kobe nineteen stock went from one hundred hundred and five dollars up to one, forty, five But we all know why it's trading at one twenty and it was trading a lot lower. It's all because of the consumer and the parks and the things that got this company going if it gets the least bit of. Of A net netflix's multiple it's very important. I am worried about the balance sheet. I am worried about the the Fox transit transaction in hindsight right now let's really poor and they they were involved in a bidding war one point they ultimately overpaid for the asset so I do agree with that but to look at the entirety of this franchise and look at their ability to at least on the demographic that they do own. I think that the the the streaming business is undervalued relative to a net flicks where the multiple doesn't matter and the company doesn't make money. So that's that's why I like Disney christus quickly, how long does this the or dizzy hold one, twenty, three, the key level that you outlined in order for you to be convinced that maybe we're on our way to some sort of a breakout because we're at one twenty three right now. I think it's happening right now in the fact that against a very low bar, the stock has responded well, I, think is moving in the right direction. The next target here's probably one thirty five, I think we push in that direction and longer we asked is this the start of a major breakout and a leadership phase? It's looking that way. All right. We've got another earnings alert for you. Let's get to fill about the latest results from Nikola fell. Hey Melissa we knew that Nikola was going to report a loss and it comes in at a loss of sixteen cents a share adjusted the expectation from analyst about thirteen or fourteen cents a share loss also on an adjusted basis. The stock's not doing a whole lot right now though we expected that we might see some movement when the conference call began, which started what about forty minutes ago and a couple of. Things they were asked about milestones and targets, and they were very clear about saying look. We're not going to tell you exactly when all of these things will happen but here are three things that investors can look for. From Nikola, before the end of the year first of all a commercial agreement on Battery Electric Vehicles, a partner, the manufacturer that Badger Electric, truck, the pickup truck, which will have more about and just a bit. As a partner for the manufacturing development and manufacturing of hydrogen stations with regard to the Badger pickup truck, and the interest that is there here is CEO mark. Russell on the call just a few minutes ago talking about why they develop did and what he had to say, what he had to say about the Tesla Cyber Truck. We didn't intend to do anything with it until we saw the cyber truck. And a lot of people didn't like the look of this Irish rock. Including me I think it looks like a doorstop, but they got lots of reservations for it. and. And so there's you know more power to 'em. We're trying to get the whole world zero and it's GonNa take more than us so we get him on. But a lot of people didn't like look that thing. So Trevor, just released the concept that we try to pick up trial and people just went nuts over it. I suspect we'll learn more about the banner electric truck within the next couple of months member they have Nikola world coming up Trevor Milton, who is the founder and chairman of the company he's going to be on Squawk on the street tomorrow morning talking with David Favor Jim Cramer Melissa one last note a lot of questions about what's going to happen with the hydrogen fuel cell semis that they are ultimately going to build in Europe and ship to here in the United States there launch customers anheuser. Busch, and they expect to have prototypes to anheuser busch so that they can start testing amount by the end of next year but mass production and delivery that doesn't happen until twenty, twenty three I'm going to hop back onto the call. We'll let you know if they have anything else. So we're quite a far away as off for manufacturing vehicle of actual vehicles, and it sounds like fell with the few things that you would outlined that they say investors should look forward to, which is finding partners for various. Components of their business we knew that they were looking so. They're saying look for this by the end of the year is nothing new. So the racing giving investors nothing to hang their hats on at this there is nothing here that make you say, wow I, mean I've got to get a piece of Niccolo. Right now what they're saying is trust us we have a lot of things we're working on a lot of people were talking to and we've got exciting things that are coming but nothing concrete from this call that you would come away and say, okay now we definitively see x? Y and Z. fell. Thank you as always fell about. The analyst line keeps going through my head who initiated coverage of Nikola and I think it was initiated at a I believe it was a seller underperform sounds more like a business plan then a business guy. Given what the stock has been doing. And I'm sure I'm sure back in the day when Tesla came out a lot of people that said the same thing I'm not I'm not I'm only comparing Tesla in that in that very specific example but couple things stick with me that July seventeenth Friday after the close secondary or whatever it was deemed to be that seemed to catch a lot listen seemed to catch the market offsides in terms of the. Way The stock performed I think there's always the possibility that another secondary comes out given their situation. So you have to be on guard against that but this is this is one of those stocks where you're betting on that business plan and if you're comfortable with and you think this is the future, maybe the risk reward sets up well, obviously there's a lot to be proven here I don't think it's about. Phil alluded to that But my opinion, there's always that that sort of Damocles hangs over you you like that used. To form of secondary or some sort of offering. I mean the images of swords just what my mind the company by the end of the quarter with almost seven hundred, million dollars in cash. Remind people that they don't have manufacturers to the cash burn is not as intensive as Tesla. This is a young company Chris, can you chart this? What does the chart look like you actually can and that's why I think when you look at this, you have to consider from a tactical sense. You rallied right back to forty today forty where the gap is where you broke down from. If fell there, we see that after hours failing forty also had a big. Downtrend combined play near forty so I think until you can reclaim that level, you can't miss. It has to show you that it's done making these lower hides making lower highs I. think it's the middle of June. Until it breaks that pattern, you just can't own it as charged. Wow, Shami anti-fundamentalist was technical level are we're just getting started here on fast money in the earnings keep rolling and up next will breakdown results from activision blizzard beyond meat and win plus we are going shopping a couple of retailers talking to tape today and hit a new all-time highs, those names and more went bass money returns. Today every answer matters more than ever before because whether it's about health deliveries or finance some things just can't wait. That's why IBM is helping businesses manage millions of calls, texts, and chats with Watson Assistant. It's conversational AI designed to help your customers, find the answers they need faster no matter the industry. Let's put smart to work visit Ibkr Dot com slash Watson Assistant to learn more. Welcome back to fast money, we got breaking news. Novak's The stock is falling in the after our session. It had been down as much more than twenty percent, but now down seven percent let's get to Mexico at the details meg. Hey. Melissa. This has just been a for this stock in the after hours. So Novak's putting out the phase one results from its cove nineteen vaccine trial that it ran in about one hundred, thirty healthy people in Australia. Now, the top line results that they put in the press release at four zero five essentially showed that the vaccine was well tolerated and generated an immune response essentially every participant who. had. Two doses. They all did generated neutralizing antibodies Then there were some confusing reports that suggested there were hospitalizations of that turned out to be incorrect. So the company just starting conference call now at five o'clock and the chief of research starting off the call clarifying that there were no hospitalizations seen in this study, and so that is why you're seeing that big plunge and then the recovery of the shares The mel this has been a confusing day to release. You know there's been a lot of complaints from the scientific community about the way biotech companies release these important vaccine data. This was press released. We haven't seen the full data set. They're going through it now on the call, but not submitted or perhaps omitted to journal, but not published yet in a journal in its entirety. So it makes it very confusing and difficult to go through these early results and you will see so much stock volatility particularly among these small companies, we have to remind everybody these earliest clinical trials and they still have to get through phase three to prove that they work not they're safe. Now, May just clarify. So the press release which I have in front of me that has been released, but in terms of the full data set that has not been released at all or has been released to certain people. What are they exactly pouring over over the conference call or is it just Nova Novak's going over the results that they have in telling people about the results that have not yet been published? That is what's going on right now Novak's is going over their own results slides. They had indicated the full slides we're going to be posted at four thirty but nobody was able to find those on the website or at least I wasn't and we can't even get the whole slide presentation as they're going through it on the conference call be company had circulated under embargo to journalists before the press release, a manuscript that presumably they have submitted to a journal or would submit to a P- reprint severer online, which is what you know visor did as they are waiting for publication but that manuscript didn't even seem complete I. Saw tables cited the manuscript that then weren't which would have clarified what those safety issues were. This data is very confusing now and I it's just dangerous. You know on phase one, there's so much volatility particularly for these smaller companies and more bottles stock right many. Thank you meg Terrell with the latest on Novak's crazy action the after our session guide, and maybe this is a cautionary tale. We've got all these companies releasing such preliminary data and not even actually I backed that up releasing preliminary results that are not even backed up by published data yet. With stocks and Again I don't know if I I've been trying to watch where this I have some indications that the stock in the after hours on that there were hospitalizations line which proved to be incorrect I think the stock traded as low as one hundred and five dollars or so. So you know think about this if you're a shareholder in the same for example, and you had to stop in the market and you've got stopped based on what proved to be an erroneous line in a news feed I mean that's problematic so it doesn't speak to Nova. Novak's specifically it speaks to a lot of what's wrong with this market and I guarantee you there people that have found themselves with a position no longer position and here the stock is as last I'm looking right back to one hundred and fifty dollars with that. Said, you know if you back all that out this was a forty dollar stock I think a few months ago. Trading now, one fifty if you've enjoyed that ride and you see what can happen, there's absolutely nothing wrong with taking money off the table here. All right. Coming up shares of activision blizzard beyond meat and win on the move in the after our session will break down those earnings reports. Later, delivery delayed the News Walmart shares tumbling after hours. We've got a lot more money straight ahead. Today every answer matters more than ever before because whether it's about health deliveries or finance some things just can't wait. That's why IBM is helping businesses manage millions of calls, texts, and chats with Watson Assistant. It's conversational AI designed to help your customers, find the answers they need faster no matter the industry. Let's put smart to work visit IBM DOT COM Slash Watson Assistant to learn more. Welcome back to pass money were still in the heat of earning season beyond meat win and activision blizzard all moving higher after hours we've got full team coverage standing by breakdown all of these names let's kick things off with Contessa brewer on. Win. CONTESSA. Well. Melissa. What we're looking at here is a rough road for WYNN resorts in part because. We have Macau close down. Let's face it. The real reason why they're having a tough quarter missed expectations is that visitation just hasn't returned to Macau the way that they were hoping after all the casino was only closed for two weeks. Given that the revenue was down in Macau to twenty one million you had a situation where Las Vegas was pulling in three times. The operating revenue as Macau was that's unheard of Wynn. Resorts is a company that gets seventy five percent of its revenue or thereabouts from Macau on the call. CEO Mathematics points out these baby steps that China's taking toward opening its casino destination it just started. Visas to Chinese travelers everyone tourists. When that happens matic says we'll be back in business until then it's burning as much as two million dollars in cash per day, and that's just Macau Maddox also says his priority is maintaining some cash in order to protect that global luxury brand to preserve this culture of family that he's really worked hard. He's invested seventy five million dollars paying people. Through these closures, he wants to protect that he says, they've just furloughed their first round of workers in Las Vegas that was a couple of weeks ago and Maddox says, at this point, they've really got gotta treat Las Vegas like a super regional casino because all their customers are coming in from driving, they're running promos they're doing partnerships they're doing, and I'm going to quote him here. He said we're doing everything. We can to put heads in beds in this Hotel Melissa contests the thank you contessa brewer Tim Seymour, what do you think of win? I think this is another one of these stories. It's nice to hear the the Bouchier preservation is a big part of the story the fact that Macao really. Since February, we started to see the recovery in Asia and then we started to see it Peter out. So this is really been a I think a highlighted. This is the key to this story, but the cash burn is something that's critical the stock has been kind of basing around seventy, seventy five dollars, and ultimately I think that's really where you are I I think there is long-term. Upside with this type of fiscal discipline in the balance sheet not running in tomorrow especially as regionally if you think about the the commuter element of who actually might be going in Las Vegas these days a lot of those dates are now very hard hit i. don't think it gets better in the short run but I do think it does get better long-term long-term investors will be rewarded but I think you are still waiting for a few more guideposts before you get in there. All right. Let's get to activision blizzard now Josh Lipton's got the latest. Josh. So most Andrew over to Oppenheimer, he'd called these numbers in his words ridiculously strong or seems to be cushioned for continued beaten raises to the lack of enthusiasm here at least in the after hours expectations were very high he says stock did hit a fifty two week high today's trade heading into the print it was about thirty percent of the past. Three months. He says long-term investors. Those should see how mobile and free to play versions of games can greatly enhance earnings power for this company's key franchises another analyst did note to me though that the second hat bookings do look roughly flat year over year despite this momentum. So his point is that sounds conservative but maybe some investors think it's not just Sandbagging on the call co Bobby Kotik, pointing out the company's broad pool of fans four, hundred, million players now and counting call of duty. He says. So remarkable increase in scale talked about war zone. That's a free to play battle Royale version of call of duty over seventy five nine played a war zone since its launch we're about five months in. Their total time spending call of duty eight times higher. He says than the year ago quarter the economic outlook is unclear Bobby Kotik saying but we should be on track to deliver great new content in the second half. Melissa back to you. All right. Josh. Thank you josh lift in Danny's. Would you agree with the analysts assertion that the earnings were ridiculous? Yeah, they're great I mean listen it was beaten raise and you know I think that comment about the second half bookings is pretty interesting. You know this is a company who sales and earnings declined server year in two, thousand and nineteen. So they've obviously been a huge beneficiary of the quarantine lockdown whatever you WANNA call it. But when when you look to the second half, you might think about, okay, maybe some demand was pulled forward I. Think this price action is pretty rational Josh said, the stock is up thirty percent and just the. Last three months it's forty five percent of the year. It trades it a pretty reasonable multiple but at the end of the day, I think investors are going to start pricing in what does deceleration from this very unusual time. Look like especially for a company that had might have already hit a gross speed bump prior to the quarantine. So to me I, think this one makes sense I think you're in have an opportunity to buy a lower but I think it makes sense to buy it lower somewhere in the seventies Chris when he think. I think this whole group is one of the great trends in the market you look at activision. Up through eighty six, the other day as a major break out any weakness post earnings back to Eighties Bible the look at ea look at take two Japanese gaming names have all been on fire. This is a Muslim group. This is a group move stay there if you're long. All Right, let's get Roy now with earnings on beyond meat ADIDI. Leon shares are down about seven percent as the company took a hit from the pandemic. Food Service Channel now, sales and food service were down about sixty percent. The company did shift resources away from food service to retail and well CEO. Even Brown didn't give guidance. He did talk on the call about the Kobe impact on food service. Though, issues related to our food service business itself or a strategy that would include us from returning to a strong growth victory on some level of normalcy returns. For the remainder of the year however we do anticipate the US Food Service demand will remain soft relative to a year ago. And that's which from production lines dedicated to food service to retail led to repacking 'cause that put pressure on the gross margin, which was down from about thirty three point eight percent to twenty nine point seven percent year-over-year however, Retail Channel Net revenues were higher by one hundred and ninety, two percent year-over-year and oppenheimers who park tells us I think the trade off is fine. You've got the strong sales growth and the margins are in line with the company's strategy reinvesting Brown. Also told CNBC, we can expect beyond to continue to go after traditional meet. Customers with lower prices in the future Melissa. Remember they ruled out those value packs over the summer a thank you DD. Roy. The value packs which brought the pricing down to about a dollar sixty patty guide. I don't know how much you pay for your beef patties but I think that they come in a little bit less. I. Don't know about competing on price here, and then there's the other aspect of saying, oh, we're going to return to normal when when food service returned to know well, we don't know when that is going to be either. Period and when you came back, if you remember your came back thinking, well, you remember better than I. Do. But the stock was meandering in the eighties right and we talked about, I remember saying and said, look I know what the product does to me without getting into great detail once again on a national TV show. But I, like the stock and I thought it could trade back to levels we saw last fall and We got I think was high as one fifty or so I think it was going that high. So now you have to ask yourself where do you get back in the name and it makes sense on a number of different metrics to look at that one twenty level, which is sort of where we broke down from in February to be you re entry point for the stock I don't know if it gets there but. It makes a lot of sense again. Protestant. Going anywhere whether I enjoy it or not, and what it does to my gastrointestinal system or not doesn't really matter. It's here to stay and you looking for another level to get back just really TMI Chris on the quickly on one twenty that level that guy was talking about I think that's too low I. Think One, thirty, one, thirty, two, the area where you WanNa Kinda zone. In here that's been good support this stock, it's been two steps forward one step back. This is the one step bag use it to your advantage. All right. Coming up building games the one industrial named Chris Brown's as boys for real breakout and later were gearing up for earnings from past from a fast favorite. Excuse me what officers are expecting from swear when reports to are all that and much more when fast money return. Welcome to fast money industrials have been lagging the broader market this year Chris Farrell says that's all about to change and he's looking at one name that's prime to pop charts. Look Yeah. I think when we talk about the broader sector, so much attention to this business focused on thanks the tech stocks that people are actually missing some improvements in the industrial sector. Now, as far as the broader sector goes, it's been consolidating this very narrow range over the last number of weeks. Though what I think people are missing is when you look at the average industrial stock, which actually outperforming the cap weighted construction of the group. So the average industrial issue is getting battered I want give you a few examples. I think the best one really our radar here is dear, dear has been in this three year range is starting to push up against that one, eighty, one, eighty, two level above that as a clear breakout a major. Major ship for what really has been allegra for the past two or three years I think with dear. You then have to go look at its pier caterpillar cats at a very timely spot here wants thirty I think proves to be good support for the stock trades right now you have the fifty day about to break up the two hundred. So if this is GonNa work, the time is now I think both of these names are going to be. Very, very telling about really the broader Schefter, and then now maybe a little under appreciated election in ninety days, infrastructure stocks are quietly starting to act a little bit better Jacobs Ticker j I. Think is a great example here that has made a series of higher lows over the last four or five months that broke out today getting above edge June high. So a lot of these names are quietly starting to exhibit some strength and then I think. Maybe one of the most important groups in this sector overall are airfreight stocks that the UPS is the best example of this. Clearly, it's broken out already. But what I think is most important the relative strength that's performance versus the SNP is really starting to improve I, think this is a game changer. I think ups is going to be a leader for years to come I think this entire sectors getting better and people are paid enough attention to it. Dan Any of these names strike fancy. Well. Listen and look at the chart or the exile. I see what crissy's but I also see a lot of components back downright horrible I saw breakout to those highs. It looks fantastic. But then when you look at a Boeing look at a Lockheed. There's just triple m honeywell they just don't well and so to me, I do think that there is the rails and now you have the air freight they're saying one thing but there's a lot of other stocks in that group that don't act particularly. Well. So to me I'd say the jury is still out I would also say that. They're discounting a whole heck of a lot of good news that may or may not come in the back half of this year but to Chris's point I mean you know, are they going down further are the valuations trending at levels that make sense for trough valuations possibly. So if you want to play catch up some of those names that makes sense to me, I'll coach points by Dan, die dummy but what do you think? As a great Regis Philbin. Again, we misread just Dan knows a lot and we'll fire that at some point later in the show I'm sure but you know Chris mentioned the one eighty lovely mentioned it for good reason because that's where we failed back in November of last year two, thousand and nineteen th. So it's a huge level into earnings on August twenty first for John Deere. So you can go to two here you can take you can take profits into the earnings number on the twenty-first thinking there's a huge potential. For Double Top, you could sorta go to the hundred dollar table, roll the dice, and hope it breaks out I. Think the prudent thing to do given the move is to take some money off the table and see what they say a couple of weeks timing outputs at anything about a retail wreck we take a look at two names all time highs today, plus are you looking for a round peg in a square hole? Yep. That's a clue on what is ahead stick around for that trade much more fast money into. Welcome active fast money shares of Walmart dropping after hours on a report that it's Amazon prime competitor Walmart plus would be delayed again, the launch of the ninety eight dollar, a year service slated to launch in July let's Takazato one percent. There's a certain amount him of market cap added on the excitement surrounding this and almost a rerating of Walmart When did I announced this off? Sure. I'd say there's certainly a ten percent market cap multiple premium thrown on top of woman I, like the fact that they're delaying. This doesn't mean that they're changing their view on this and they don't have the. To do this, and we've talked about while Amazon went out of their way for years to build out logistics fulfillment Erp Capabilities Walmart on some level has that in place and always had that in place. This makes a ton of sense for Walmart their ability to actually use the the the same day delivery as the same vehicle to drive higher ticket. Items higher margin items and frankly put a lot more pressure on the cost goes in the targets which were about to talk to. So talk about I I think this, this is a a a headline that's not great after hours. This isn't devastating. They told you they weren't going to do this. That's fine. But if you think of the other initiatives that. They've been doing and therefore into commerce and they've had different drivers some of them whether it was jet that we didn't really understand but they gave them some of the know how in the Mo Jo Flip Cart, which you know arguably I- isn't doing a lot for them even though India's a great market, they are finally learning what to do in ECOMMERCE and. Frankly, didn't happen yesterday it's been happening over the last couple of years. That's why the multiple is going higher and I think they are the dominant player in this space. All right. Let's get to those two retail names topping the tape today. Check out target and Costco, both hitting fresh all-time highs Dan flag the move. So what do you make of this? WELL COSCO obviously in front of tomorrow's July sales on June sales were a nice catalyst for the Stock Kinda. Got It. Going again a little bit after consolidation. I don't love the idea of buying a runaway breakout like this. It's fully expecting good July results targets really interesting though this one. Kind of getting back to that prior high here the most defensible valuation Tim does bring up a great point when you think about some of the initiatives, Walmart's trying to do with. Walmart prime. That's going to really weigh on target, but I'd expect target to continue to innovate era. So I like target here. Would you rather rather Guy Dummy Walmart target or? Costco? Costco and it's not a we're not pulling out of a vacuum and usually I sort of equivocate a little bit or try to buy some time. But Costco's been a monster people knock them on valuation. We've been talking about COSCO for a long time on this show targets finally caught up and rightly. So we've talked about how targeted with the discount trading to Walmart. Didn't make sense but costco sort of me. Makes the most sense out of the three but would you rather rather rather you thought dollar Jen and restoration hardware to that mix then you got yourself a basket well, those names by the way our names we've been steadfast in for a while way off the grid that one I mean way way off i. mean you have five that's just way too many choices with that said though Chris author to you. I'll give you all those choices all five of those choices which do you like the best I think targets the best chart here you know it's really the only one that's going up and outperforming some kind of a knock have on Gusto here cockles at new all time highs, but it's actually not new delta Pi versus apiece you're not getting paid to. Own it other stuff target you are charged breaking out of three year base. That's the best one of the bunch. All right coming out but there is no denying the rally in this payment stocks I wasn't hip to be square investor stick around because we'll swipe into the options market. What is ahead is they report earnings tomorrow life more fast money straight ahead. Welcome money the earnings bonanza continues tomorrow payment processor swear on deck to report an option traders are betting. The stock will ring up big gains on the results. Let's bring in Mike Co with the options action Mike what he's seeing. Melissa squares implying about an eight point, eight percent move by the end of the week after they report earnings that's a lot. But maybe not surprising given that it has averaged about seven and a half percent over the course of the last eight quarters. The Bulls and bears were pretty evenly matched in today's volume but the Bulls just edged it out the most active where the weekly one forty strike calls just under. Five thousand of those traded for about four dollars, sixty five cents, buyers of those calls or obviously betting that the stock is going to be higher than that one forty strike price by the end of the week that would be up around one, forty, five or higher by weeks end. So that would suggest that they're making some bullish bets coming out of earnings Dan. What do you think a square you like it here? Well first things first, I missed my senior in a long time I go to see listen that stock that stock has been consolidating over the last month or show. So if you're going make a bad on an upside breakout moved to finding your risk, but those calls makes a lot of sense to me because one hiccup in this name, you know that's up two hundred or something percent from those March lows and you have a stock down materially greater than that in my opinion I don't know if you missed my co Chris but what do you think of the chart? I agree with Dan I think this is a name that I was for six weeks. It's a great long term trend until it gives you a reason to sell it you have to say long these uptrend stay in place. I think the best example of that. All Right Mike. Thank you and I don't Miss Because I. see you on Fridays Fridays when the full show is options action five, thirty PM eastern time. We'll see you then up next final trades. Welcome back to fast money check chairs Kodak dropping as much as thirteen percent today after the announced, launching an investigation to some unusual trading activity in the stock just last week. Remember this is a story that we highlighted a win. The company got a government loan basically to turn into a pharmaceuticals company alone that was seven times its market cap prior to the announcement of that loan guide on me just quickly on on. Kodak. The story to seems to keep on going. And it's not GonNa get any better in terms of some of the things that they uncover is my sense and we we've talked about this week and a half or so ago and it just younger you you wonder why people get upset that's why get upset because things like that Noah, stock that we didn't talk about for a myriad of reasons, not least of which the market cap being below five, hundred, million dollars or the sun it's become relevant. It makes you sort of scratch your head and I think in terms of the headlines worse is yet to come all right time for the final trae. Let's go around the horn ten. Walmart again, I, think this is a multiple story when you talked about their their single day delivery stay with this on those headlines, I wouldn't worry about that Dan. Yeah I agree with the Walmart probably sees new highs soon but else agree with Verona on target I think this thing breaks out here is probably target. Hero through one eighty to break out. All right and guy. Golden to form and Newmont mining called about two thousand dollars for the first time today. MAZING. Thanks for watching fast back tomorrow five more fast money meantime madden money with the one and only Jim and starts right now. Today. Every answer matters were than ever before because whether it's about health deliveries or finance some things just can't wait. That's why IBM is helping businesses manage millions of calls, texts, and chats with Watson Assistant. It's conversational is designed to help your customers, find the answers they need faster no matter the industry. Let's put smart to work visit IBM DOT COM Slash Watson Assistant to learn more.

Disney Chris Tim Seymour IBM Watson Assistant Melissa Dan Walmart Tom Rogers Costco activision Netflix Europe Chris Brown analyst Covid Tesla CNBC Melissa lower United States
Fast Money 07/16/19

CNBC's Fast Money

46:38 min | 1 year ago

Fast Money 07/16/19

"How do you identify attract and retain talent to grow your business? The answer is workday a single system that aligns your employees career goals with Your Business Goals shape your organization's future with workday a finance H._R.. And planning partner like no other it certainly does fast money does begin right now as always for the Nasdaq market site overlooking the beautiful just cool breeze of Times Square Brian Sullivan Melissa Today Your Traders on the desk our pizza Jerry Karen earned firemen Brian Kelly. Please welcome Jeff Bills from P._N._C. Jeff. Welcome thanks for coming in and you aren't so folks. Here's your setup the Dow squeaking out yet another record high today and for all of you bulls out there. There is one chart that could maybe we signal more gains ahead. We're GONNA show it to you because we're TV plus net flicks on their results tomorrow media mogul. Tom Raj will be here to tell you what the key is going forward for their streaming success but we in planes planes trains and automobiles the transport surging back today trucker J._V. Hunt crushing earnings the airline soaring that group up five percent in just the past week so is the classic Dow Theory The idea via the transports are going to lead the market back in Vogue. It's been around one hundred or so years. Pete Nigerian does that move the huge move for airlines railroads truckers mean that the there's an all clear. I don't think it's that easy. I don't think the markets are ever that easy. Everybody loves to say that theory did well. I would just say this. I would say that it's a great side and the airlines we've watched them produce and produce produce and people still yet don't WanNa seem to own a lot of the various airlines but when I looked at those delta numbers last week and everybody everybody it almost went by and nobody even talked about it Brian and yet they crushed it. They had a record second quarter so we know right now that they do have pricing power. They've got great deals with the credit cards when you look at United you look across the entire landscape right right now I think the pricing power that they've got is impressive and obviously with oil just kind of hanging around in this fifties sixties. That's sort of a range. I think that gives them a great opportunity to just keep printing money which is exactly what the airlines are but separate out the airlines from the rest. Yeah France points very different story on us. We Have C._S._X.. Earnings coming out after the close right now. It's worse-than-expected J.. B. Hunt's earnings last night. Were just slightly better-than-expected on weaker estimates. They weren't really that great now C._S._X.. SEX COMES OUT SAYS intermodal down said there's a slow drip down. It's not complete doom and gloom but a slow drip down. That's the story of the Interior economy. The airlines I think are very separate from the rest of what's going on in transport so I would not look at a broad index Jackson go. Oh everything's great in the market out there these C._S._X.. Numbers are not that great but I gotTa push back on. You'd be you got Canadian Pacific Norfolk southern those stocks thirty eight percent and they're down four percent after the close up thirty eight percent this year down four percent of in the reality is is that the earnings are not great that are coming out now. So whoever bought the last thirty eight percent was wrong well for thirty three percent they were right but the same argument do I do think that to to have this monolithic transports and have that that and be a proxy for the market doesn't make sense. I mean the the airlines which long airlines they seem to be great. Although every time <unk> I hang on too long. I don't know if I should sell some into which airlines Delta American united but the transport's be is a bigger story. Actually the real part of it saying C._S._X.. is coming out with this. What I'm afraid of the trade situation you bet the uncertainty they're looking you know they said their second half is going to be down and we're seeing uncertainty and so for why the market's been trading on this tide of macro events now we're getting into the nitty gritty the earnings? That's what I like to see and so oh to see rail earnings like this be this disappointing that that Jeff it's funny because the two railroads that you think would be most smack down by the trade fight at least with Canada and Mexico Canadian Pacific and Kansas the city southern which has a lot most of its revenue crossing the border. They're up thirty two and twenty percent this year. Are you surprised by that strength. Yeah I am a little bit surprised but look at the transports more broadly yeah. It's been a nice move. I like to see them doing a little bit better better but as a broad index there's still quite a bit below the highs previously so to believe this move. I want to see a breakout pass those old all-time highs if I'm being optimistic. I think that maybe this supports our view that we're going to see a cyclical bottoming in p._M.. Is I think you're still all-seeing. Tighter financial conditions flow through the economy. I think lower interest rates will start to support so I think that's a good thing but if you're looking for confirmation for the for the market overall I still think there are things out there to look at. If you look at the breadth of the market it's widening being out marketed and a good way look at equal weighted indexes volumes day two thousand seventeen days. It doesn't tell the whole store you are seeing market. Cap Weighted Index is an equal weighted index to perform together. That's a good thing look at credit spreads. The triple B credit spreads of hit a fifty two week lows so thinking about liquidity the credit markets these are good things and it based on our work. We don't see sentiment is overly exuberant at this point so I think you take the transport move with a little bit of grain of salt. Look at some of these other areas of the market and I think the setup is generally good looking out over the next six to twelve anybody around the table believed that the overall market yes and P.. Five hundred is overheated is too high. I bet to that overheat. It's probably not but not the word I would use but I'd be extremely cautious. I think the biggest risk that you have here is things stagnate not that we necessarily go into recession but because of the uncertainty the Karen was talking about things stagnate. That's what you're seeing in these earnings here and then at at that point you have to wonder what does the market do. Have we priced in too much at this point in time. I would just be incredibly cautious. I don't think I mean maybe we get a cyclical bottom. Of what if we don't have things to stall. That's a problem well. The one thing I think all of us here have I've been doing this. A long time. That history is told us is that markets could remain or irrational. Maybe overvalued and I say that in air quotes a lot longer than we think there were people ninety eight who were saying we're doomed. They were right but they were two years too early. Which means they were wrong? Yes absolutely the One thing I'd had to you. We talked about volumes. You just did a second ago Brian when you look at the July volumes in the drip is world and the derivatives world is what I look at not only because I came from that world on the options nations floors in Chicago but when you look at when leverage was taken away after the financial crisis where did that volume move it moved into the world where I am in the derivative side. We are seeing right now. Low low volumes to your point. I mean we're three million a day under the average. We've only had three days in derivatives in the derivatives. We've only had three days so far in July that have actually hit the average for the entire year so at nineteen point three million per day so we are seeing low volumes which is odd because here we are in earning season and you would expect to see those volumes really rushing back in so what does seeing those other than maybe a lot of institutional interest. It tells me that the participation right now is starting to back off a little bit. We've got volatility. That's low and Karen and I were talking about. At this earlier but protection right now is cheap and we talk about it all the time and yet people don't like they don't like to hear it but when you can buy these levels protection at twelve and a half over a portfolio on the S. and P. Five hundred. That's a great time to be fire but when it comes when you've got that hurricane often the case. That's exactly what I'm saying. I'm cautious right now. I'm not necessarily saying you need the dump everything but why not buy some volatility at the level right why not protect yourself there are enough concerns out there that you should be at least protected. That's my point well Karen. It's like we we look at low volume as a negative sometimes but you know if you like your car you keep it you hold onto. It and I wonder if low volumes are telling us that there's no buyers but maybe there's no sellers either. The people are happy where they are under sticking with it right well so that that to be read a little of complacency a little. I don't know you could say complacent on either side as a buyer seller but to me I think Pete's point is so it's so on target the volatilities coming in here. I'm I'm always long. No matter what no matter how scared I am or how bullish 'em Moi's long. That's what I do so I'm not going to sell things into a trade war that I'm afraid of but I gotta own protection. If the VIX is going to stay here I gotTa buy more for protection that hopefully I'll lose money on the market to go up but Brian to your point about the market being able to stay expensive for longer than we think. I hate to make this argument because over the long term it's not a good one but look at the equity risk premium with what rates have done. It continues to blow out. It's the Tina argument argument. There is no alternative. It's going to be good in the short term for equities it forces people out the risk curve again over the long term. Look out over the next decade probably means lower return for equities but for now I feel like people are being pushed into risk assets and that's good for multiple by the we've got earnings alert out on one of the names that you own one of the transports that is United Airlines Philo gave you a couple of minutes. Look at those numbers here house United Airlines numbers look. They're strong numbers Brian and that's why the stock is moving a little bit higher plus. There's a piece of news in the earnings report. We'll get to in a little bit look. It comes down to this strong domestic. Demand is the reason that they beat on the top and the bottom line in the second quarter they have also raised the lower end of their full year guidance but for the second quarter in a row united will not detail the exact impact in terms of dollars and cents of having the seven three seven Max grounded. All of this raises the question what is United's plan when it comes to dealing with the Max not that they have a whole lot of choices right now so we're just everybody's clear here they have extended. How long that this plane is off? The scheduled through November third. The capacity is being brought down for the full year was five to six percent growth now. They're saying look it's only going to be three to four percent because there may they may not even have the Max back by the end of the year fourteen in the fleet have already been grounded remember. They're scheduled to get another sixteen this year. Realistically that's probably not going to happen which may be the reason why buried deep within the note. If if you read all the way down you found that united in the second quarter purchased nineteen used Boeing seven three seven seven hundreds those will be into the fleet starting in December. They're not disclosing the price nor are they disclosing who the seller is but guys this speaks to the need to make sure that they have the seats for their capacity growth plans as they move into twenty twenty so again they're buying nineteen used Boeing seven three seven dash seven hundred. We're GONNA be talking with C._E._O.. Oscar Munoz about this as well as a number of other things tomorrow morning you do not want to miss this interview exclusively on Squawk box starting at eight A._M.. Guys back to you that is going to be a big one. There is a lot to discuss with Oscar Munoz there as well okay Karen. We'll start with you. You said Joan it. Numbers are pretty good. Numbers are pretty good. What's really interesting is look at the run? This has this has happened since the end of May I think it hit the high seventies now here we are in the mid nineties. That's been quite a run in the bars been higher earn higher earnings and even beat that all that having been said though the airlines have getting a little time to do some pe- playbook and sell some calls against it. I think which I've already done I own united. I've sold calls on today. I own southwest is well. Today I ruled my calls out a little bit further into August and a little bit of upside. Try to collect the August fifty five and I get a little over a dollar for those so that's I agree with you. I don't know that we're going to see these airlines absolutely take off no pun intended but I think they continue to grind higher and if they're going to do that I'm going to sell calls against it Brian and be able to take in that premium and watch these things that they moved to the upside and get a little protection to the doubts. I guess a point and a question I mean the point where you wonder how much earnings growth there is. If the fleet's aren't getting any bigger planes can only be one hundred percent full. I mean once you've got the load factors they call it almost completely jammed in on every frigging fight rising our baby pricing then you start to but then you get to a point where the fares to hire people say you know what I love. They haven't gotten there yet. They haven't gotten there yet and we all fly and we see all yeah we don't we don't nobody around. This table needs an analyst right to tell them about the airline business because we all have our own little cubicle right at Newark Airport or but you wonder. Where is that pricing power lost? Where's the cap where the non essential business traveler says? I can't swing it up one other thing that everybody forgets about how about the money that Delta makes through the American Express deal in that partnership they've got there that is a is a number. That's free money coming into them for the most those part I mean it's incredible how much money they're making in different areas that people just seem to discount they look at just one specific metric. I think there's other metrics to look at at some of these. Partnerships are really starting to pay off as well. I would just say if you're worried about that and I think that's a legitimate concern about at some point the pricing power fly coach from Newark Cincinnati so I'm looking at the stock trading right so you've got a hundred dollars is where we was the high that we had back in two thousand eighteen. We're getting pretty close to that right so you can use that. You can sell L. calls against that. You can use that as a place where you might WANNA target to sell out of them so I think it's it's not a bad point to say listen. Maybe it doesn't double top here. Let's be cautious. Okay hold on guys. We've got a news alert on new skin stock just painting path for our Seema mody what's going on. Hey Brian. Here's a story new skin is issuing a warning it now sees second quarter earnings coming in below forecasts eighty to eighty four cents versus the estimate of ninety four cents. The company says it's primarily due to a reduce revenue outlook outlook in mainland China following the government's one hundred day campaign to review and inspect the health products and direct selling industry's the company also mentioning the negative impact of the stronger dollar you can see the stock is reacting Bryan's down about fourteen percent in extent trade. It's also been a tough year in general for the company back to you. Thank you stock down twenty five percent this year thirty nine percent over the past year one of these multilevel marketing companies anybody here aw ever owned it and use the product. You know what I mean. I use olive oil. You Look Great. Don't tell constraining to so badly. All all you need wimpy. I thought he was the stronger character Popeye family anyway guys come back. We can to transport. It's funny we focus on united and Delta everything like this. The best performing the airline stock in America is not only allegiant small company but one that sixty minutes did a deep dive in basically escapees on allegiant if you will and yet the market didn't care. There's so many weird things going on with some of the names in this space yeah I. Yeah I wouldn't wanNA touch allegiance I wouldn't want I wouldn't want to touch them for an investment nor would I want to necessarily fly on. That's my personal decision. I happen to think you stick with the majors though because if there's going to be any type of pricing power there's the ones that inhabit the planes are still full and they're still a little bit okay so don't dabble. Maybe in the smaller cap transports is what you're saying all right coming up facebook facing congress and feeling the heat but we'll Congress's anger really hurt the companies or their sharable plus. There's one Chart Jeff. Mill says could help you catch up to this record rally one group that hasn't come along for the ride yet but could as always we're live from Times Square New York City much more fast money right after this stick around teams are hooked. There's a voice my brain they told me to do it. Cure very cigarettes. Curse vaping is no safer than smoking. Watch vaporized America's the cigarette addiction Monday at ten eastern only on C._N._B._C. All right welcome back to fast money everybody the S. and P. Five hundred is hovering near record highs but the little guys really haven't been coming along for the ride small caps down nearly ten percent from their fifty two week highs but doc. Let's now take a look at the chart of the day Jeff Mills of P._N._C. brought along and Jeff. You say something something good may start to be bubbling up for the Russell two thousand. What do you see it yeah? I think there could be an I'll get to the details of the chart in a second but one of the questions we get from advisors clients. All the time is look at this divergence between small and large is this telling us something about the sustainability of the rally and it could be problematic. There could be bearish implications because small caps are not keeping up as M._p.. At all time highs small caps more than ten percent away from their own all-time highs this only happened three times in the past forty years so we went back and took a look at well what happened during those three periods. It's not necessarily a robust sample size but what we saw in every one of those periods was small caps eventually catch up and make their own all-time highs so again not a huge sample size but it gives us an idea of what might happen in this environment and like I mentioned credit spreads before they still look pretty good. You have money supply accelerating so I don't think small caps lagging is necessarily a commentary military that there's risk aversion in the market and that the S._N._p.. Can't sustain its highs. I think it actually may be more of a commentary on the fact that banks for example or the largest industry grew by far in the Russell so there may just be an individual industry group problem there you go to the chart so the Russell hasn't made much progress to all time highs. It's been trading in this channel what you're seeing under the surface. Though is the new twenty day high list so new one month highs starting to expand your now crossing that thirty five percent threshold there so thirty five percent of issues in the Russell Russell now making one month highs this generally a good thing when you look at the returns and the Russell over the next six to twelve months so if history is any guide if this internal expansion we're seeing within the index is any guide we could see a catch up in small caps over the next number of months because the gap jeff between the small caps and the S. and P. Five hundred. I don't know if it's never been wider but it's really wide in terms of the performance over the last year or so. They're just doing this. That's exactly right and I think a lot of it has to do with the interest rate environment we've been in and what's happening to bank so I think that's been a big driver and again. I don't know it's a commentary on the broader market but to your point. It's only happened three times. It's very very unusual for the gap to be this wide but history tells us that there is usually a catch up trade to be had and I like what's happening under the surface purpose as it relates to the broadening participation okay good stuff there. We are watching the small caps for more on the small caps and maybe what it means for the market you can go to trading nation dot C._N._B._C. dot com big tech under fire three major hearings on Capitol Hill and facebook's libra holding its own top analysts will tell you the stocks that could be the big winners the Crypto crazier live is always the Nasdaq what's more fast money right. After this South Asia remains the fastest growing region in the world and will wake up two thirds of Global middle-class consumption by the year twenty fifty at Matthews Asia. We've been investing in Asia for over twenty five years and our mission is to champion an Asia focused investment solutions may profit from this growth and build wealth for our global clients over the long term. Find out what a dedicated allocation to Asia can add to your portfolio at Matthews Asia Dot com slash opportunity. Welcome back to fast money. We've got a news alert breaking right now on qualcomm. Josh Lipton has the very latest Josh. That's why Brian Simpson headlines drop from qualcomm Reuters is reporting that the U._S. Department of Justice has asked a federal appeals court to pause imposition of this antitrust ruling against qualcomm apparently with support from the energy and Defense Departments. You will call back in May this judge ruled that the chipmaker had violated needed antitrust law sided with the F._T._C.'s had qualcomm was suppressing competition qualcomm disagree with those conclusions and his filing an appeal of that decision but also asked the ninth circuit for a stay in other words put on hold altuve the remedies until this appeal is heard and now the government apparently saying yes you should grant that stay in qualcomm moving higher here in the after hours Brian Back to you guys. Thank you very much. Something stock is up about three percent on that news anybody going strong opinion on qualcomm. It's been this has been a court qualcomm court case and litigation and settlement words we have used with the stock for the better part of five to seven years. That's I mean that's been the bet on the stock right. If you're long stock you're betting that these court cases are going to go their way. It looks like Lille Armitage yeah but what's interesting about this. I think is that it kind of goes to the idea that the supply chains because of the trade war might be in jeopardy and I think that's what's driving this some of what's going on with five Ajay the DOD and the Department of Energy needs some of what they have <hes> for that so it could be kind of a side casualty of the trade war or benefit of the trip because of all this litigation though the problem I have with it is that's going to continue I think I don't know that this is the last thing we're going to hear in that whole and it's been going on forever as you mentioned multiple years. I bought Micron today about the stock there. I added to an Intel position that I have and I have A._M._d.. Calls so I like some of the other names where I don't have to deal with all these headaches of well what what's going to happen next and how long is this expands ends green macro question Karen. Should you ever own stock. That effectively is a legal arbitrage play I mean are you buying it based on the expected outcome which is by the way a guess unless you're say star patent attorney or antitrust attorney on how well how judge jury is GonNa Decide Yeah. It's too complicated for me trying to figure out all right if these sweeping changes are implemented if they lose here if they say they get the state and then it goes and then they lose an appeal I it's too complicated agree with Pete other ways to try to play own in other words too complicated or too complicated there on qualcomm. QUALCOMM is certainly a name. I mean it's done well. It's US thirty percent in the last twelve months thirty six percent in the last six months but I think everything is priced then maybe it is. There's always that five Jeez always like the thing that they're going to change everything all right sticking with technology. There are three major tech hearings on Capitol Hill Today D._D.. Roy's in San Francisco hitting one angle l'envoi in Washington D._C.. With another let's start with WHO's got the latest from the Google testimony Adidi Hi there Bryan that's right. We've been monitoring the Senate. Judiciary Committee hearing on Google and Censorship lawmakers have been asking some tough. Of questions of Google policy chief Karen Bhatia questions revolving around privacy and antitrust issues as well as another topic that has made headlines The last few days whether or not Google is working with the Chinese government he was asked that by Senator Richard Sir Richard Blumenthal earlier today and here's what he said have you found any evidence of infiltration of your management or your private data by Chinese intelligence absolutely not senator as Google made had any decision about its contracts with the United States government based on pressure or in consultation with China absolutely not as Google turned over or in any way turned a blind eye to a League of its it software or private data to Chinese intelligence absolutely not we take extremely seriously that the threat of any penetration our systems and again and Google policy chief Karen Bhatia. They're are categorically denying that Google is working with the Chinese government. These comments are stemming from comments that Peter Thiel made earlier this week alleging that perhaps Google is working with the Chinese government calling the company patriotic and that's something thing that president trump also responded to saying he would be looking into that we are continuing to monitor this hearing and we'll flag any further headlines onto you back to you Bryan. Thank you very much so big technology antitrust and facebook's new Lieber coin also hot topics picks on Capitol Hill today. Let's get more now for the capital of Wall Street which is Washington alone with all the details their lawn O'Brien the day did start with facebook under fire as the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing on the new crypto currency libra lawmakers wanted to know how to work who will regulate it and how facebook plans to make money from it but ultimately their concerns boil down to trust trust is something you earn and facebook book certainly hasn't earned it. What what kind of faith do we have in labor? Can we agree that a banker should be trustworthy. I don't WanNa get into the technical stuff. I'm talking about the trust issue chairman. I wish we couldn't trust facebook. It's pretty clear there's almost nobody in this Schmidt the does now I am over in the house where facebook along with Google Amazon and apple just testifying before the judiciary committee as part of its broad antitrust investigation and lawmakers here tried to make the case that these big tech giants are not only the dominant players in their space. Sometimes there are the only players is competition to facebook a yes congressman there is we faced fierce competition for all all the products and services that we offer people come to who would be the competition if I might <hes> so many many of our competitors secret. Many of our competitors are sitting here at this table with me in that thank you and unique chair in a unique position among those who seated at the table Brian the companies tried to argue that they encourage innovation not stifle it back to you and thank you very much already guys just trade this. I mean there's a lot of trade here Jeff. I I'll P._N._C. View on facebook. I mean one of the biggest companies most powerful companies in the world. We'll take a view overall technology for example and we think in this part of the business cycle where like I said you may see a little bit out of a bottoming but we don't think we're going to see a massive acceleration. We still think the companies in technology these secular growers that can grow top and bottom line a lot more than say the broad market they are going to require a premium from investors. They're going to move into those names. We still like those names as it relates to all the antitrust. We actually went back with all this going on. We looked at fifty years worth of data and perhaps not surprisingly D._O._J.. F._T._C. investigations their underperformance before and after but it's interesting if you look at some of the larger cases so when you look at the top ten market cap they've only been antitrust ruling put against eleven of them so the performance there is decidedly mixed and I think what you're seeing right. Now is the market give the benefit of the doubt because you're still seeing that secular growth in those names so I mentioned the equally weighted index is technically weighted index next doing very well versus. The market cap weighted index so tech is not just those names you can get broad exposure to technology companies that are able to grow outside of just the names that are in the crosshairs here. We just talked about Karen Litigation risk. This is congressional risk regulatory risk at the trust risk. Would it scare you off of facebook. Now I've long. I hate it Google Long. I hate that also I I hate. I hate watching things like the a show I gotta say I'm very troubled by either Peter Theo coming out and saying Google may have engaged in seemingly treasonous behavior. He's a big sport over the president big competitor to Google and the president saying yes. Let's take that up and take a look looking at that. That's troubling that he can do that and the president will react the way you deal. Peter Peter also founded Pailin tear the big secretive private. I know Peter I mean so he may have some sort of viewpoint on the security side that wasn't clear in what do you think I would say this. I on facebook as well. I voted for quite a long time. What I like about facebook is the more regulatory the comes down the better the motives for facebook and then actually keeps out competition so because of at the more they're pushing on them and the amount of money that sucker Berg said about a year ago that's when that stock got slammed and it was because the amount of money he said we're going towards security? They got so many verticals where they can make money right now. It's not just facebook which everybody focuses is on instagram. It's messenger. It's all the various and e combat. I will just I know there's other factors I get it but just remember when Microsoft got attacked for antitrust by the government it took fifteen years for that stock stock to get back to the level it was before the antitrust case could be also collect. We had all but Microsoft's focus was wrong right. I mean don't we all said there were other factors. That was a huge factor. Awful has is a really big one. It's from the noon love your we mentioned facebook's new Lieber coin but your next guest says that liebers road deregulation may have a buddy bumpy ride ahead is bringing out Lisa Ella senior research analyst at Moffitt Nathan Lisa. What do you think is going to first off? Do you believe libra will ever actually exist. Will it be allowed by the U._S.. Government we've bought the probability on that at reasonably low. If you define success as libra gets off the ground and is used as a functioning alternative currency and say ten developing markets where they suffer from very high inflation. We'd probably just put a number on on it. Put the probability of getting there probably less than twenty percent and certainly the timeframe measured in years. You know three five or more years so don't you can own facebook but don't buy facebook because of Libro or its parent. That's I think that's right. I mean there's a huge opportunity and facebook for e-commerce just using the normal old Fiat currency types through instagram and what they're starting to do with instagram checkout up through facebook marketplace and extending the early initiatives. They've got around e commerce. That's certainly a reason to be bullish about facebook but I but but libra in many ways it's very futuristic. It's very experimental. It's it's it's something that would be years away in terms of financial impact. You know it's interesting. Lisa is a little bit off topic but we just talked about Microsoft you remember I don't know how long you've been following micro. Remember Microsoft effectively sort of tried to create its own not blockchain but like with Zun their their music player. They basically had their own payments system in a way you bought points and I first thing I thought about Lebron was in that didn't work for a lot lot of reasons that we just talked about but will this affect the payments the paper towels of the world or can everybody kind of get along. If this ultimately is approved yeah I mean it's being designed in a way that they're all working together so paypal visa MasterCard undercard pretty notably of all raised their hands to participate or at least an indication that they would be willing or interested in participating. I guess this point it's nonbinding in the Libra Association and so they are all planning to roll up their sleeves and try to work together to figure out if there is a design in the applicability of crypto currencies in payments so very early days but they're certainly all at this point trying to collaborate <hes> to collaborate on the initiative release its P._K.. So I'm curious why did facebook do this. They didn't have to write. They had to anticipate there was going to be a lot of regulatory pushback. What what else is going on here? They trying to to use this technology in a different way. What do you think well? I mean I do think they look at their user base and the striking thing about facebook's user base across all the platforms is that something like seventy percent of it is in developing markets like not in the U._S. and in Europe and North America Europe and when they look at enabling or empowering commerce for those users literally billion billion plus one point six one point seven users a big enabler of of commerce for those users users is actually an enabling financial services enabling payments and a crypto currency which can function as an alternative to Fiat currency as sort of this global currency. That's not subject to the very very high inflation sometimes some government controls around currencies. That's really what they're after thereafter empowering commerce in close to one hundred countries around the world that the W._T._o.. Qualifies as High Inflation Asian countries. It's like those countries where actually many many millions of of individuals in the population are actually on the facebook platform usually on what's up Lisa Ellis of Muffin Nathanson. Thank you very much all all right. So what's your prediction will lieber exist. We'll libra succeed. I think liberal exist. I think it's GonNa be a longer road that a lot of other people expected <hes>. Will it succeed. I think it's going to be it'll. It'll probably work as a payment system. That's what they're trying to do. My view on this what they're trying to do is compete with chat. They're trying to make a super APP and that's why they added this payment part to it is going to work <HES> I. It depends what you'd find work the more. I think we're making too much but you just basically eliminate the need to type in your pay pal information. Is something a little bank account so it's a pain from your store difference between inventive. I feel like it's more of an Ebay to be honest with. I'm just trying to sell stuff. We gotta go domino's getting sliced thinking on the back of its earnings. The CEO just sat down with Jim. We're going to bring you his comments ahead about what happened what he thought of the quarter plus Netflix that with their numbers after the bell media mogul Tom Rogers says the stock is virtually unbreakable streaming wars to find out what has him so bullish. He's coming up next here on fast money. Stick around net flicks is gearing gearing up for its results tomorrow. I'm not gonNA say earnings because we don't know if they're going to earn anything. Stock is up more than thirty five percent this year. The streaming war certainly heating up. Let's bring in Tom Rogers Executive Chairman of Win View Salsa Former C._E._o.. Of Tibo and former for N._B._C. Executive and a guy very closely associated with this fine network. Tom Thank you thanks her as well. So do you think they'll be earnings. In netflix earnings report they ever make real money well they. They have gap earnings what they don't have yet is free cash flow and they have a pretty deep hole on the cash flow side <hes> projections or three and a half billion dollars of cash losses this year. I don't think that really goes to the essence essence of the story that well. We're not going to know this quarter. Is Anything about friends or frenzy. We're not going to know what it means to lose any of the content because that hasn't taken effect yet won't for a while and the frenzy meaning H._B._O.. L. Max Apple Plus D plus. We're not going to know the effect of any of that stuff yet because it hasn't launched what we are going to know is the pricing power that Netflix has because over the quarter they took some major price increases increases both domestically and abroad yep <hes> fifteen to eighteen percent domestically the standard and the premium package up to box similar types of price increases in western Europe western European countries were Netflix on euros basis. It's actually three more expensive than the U._S.. And we're going to see whether or not there is churn there whether they really had disruption or they're able to hold the base with those price increases. Now expectations are very low for U._S.. Domestic of <hes> less than half a million my guess is they're going to beat on that because they projected very very low guidance on the on the U._s. a little bag maybe perhaps you know stranger things than that good one. Ah I got no credit for friends in frenzy because friends of moving off to A._T.. And T. Warner media. Here's the thing okay so you you you help build C._N._B._C. The wealthiest audience television so maybe not the right one to talk about this with but how many streaming if I go to Apple T._v.. Which I use at home how many streaming platforms do you believe the middle class family the bread and butter this country is realistically going to afford or can't afford well? It's a great question because as people cut the cord and I actually think this quarter we're going to see some record court cutting and that's going to raise the issue of okay. Hey as people cut the cord. How many streaming service they're going to take on your question? My view is Netflix is going to be the overwhelming based streaming service in everybody's home. There's GONNA be a fight between everybody else as to what the second third third four streaming service going to be but Netflix is spending so much more money than anybody else when you look at H._B._O.. Talking about H._B._O.. Max Having a couple extra bucks go into seventeen dollars even assume half of H._B._O.'s thirty eight million subs chubs take that two bucks that's three hundred four hundred million dollars of incremental revenue year Netflix is going from fifteen billion to twenty billion programming costs over year. Nobody else is going to touch that that is going to be the mainstay as a result result the original programming because its original programming that drives new subs and quite frankly hold subs so let me ask you so you're saying Netflix says that their way out ahead nobody's close but of the the Disney's the A._T. and. Whatever else is out there? <hes> over the over the top space who has a chance of surviving. Not all of them can well. Where's Apple? I you know I think there's going to be room for multiple players. I think when you when you think about what is a little detached from reality Disney's gotten fifty billion dollars of incremental market cap since it's made streaming announcement in April okay. It's got a few million subs on E._S._P._N.. Plus hasn't isn't launched Disney plus Kulu. Now it's going to be able to go international but has an announced any numbers on it whatsoever and they gotta buy back comcast a third of it at full market price in five years <hes> there's a lot of risk there and they're getting fifteen billion dollars about one third of Netflix market cap does that mean Disney is going to make I think they probably will but I don't think that it is going to necessarily mean that we have this massively transformed company going on a clear upward word trajectory that <hes> look tight on time with the exception of betting in Europe win view. What is the most exciting company that you see right now the most exciting company I see right now in the space? It's gotta be netflix streaming streaming. No young buck coming up. That's company to watch Netflix is in Bangladesh. It's in Nigeria. It's in Ethiopia. I'd like to see the H._B._O.. Max Plan for entry into Ethiopia and U._S.. The nominated dollars that are being paid their the hit against a net flicks is oh it's subs. Internationally are worth very much their average subs. They're nearing one hundred million subs their their average subs nine to ten bucks. They just took a twenty ninety five percent price increase in Japan nineteen percent in Canada. There is a lot of room on this thing still and I think if I had to pick something that's really exciting. It's that one and I tell them. I remember people on this network years ago saying D._V._D.'s by mail will never work. Nobody wants that. We've got blockbuster video or twenty million subs. They were going to have to cut-price get anymore. Growth Look at that and they've done well. Tom Rogers win. Thank you very much Thomas a real pleasure to get your views net flicks love boasts exciting company out there still still right now and you'll love it. I do because cash flow positive but made no ever will be well. I mean if they never will be. We help problem but I mean that's been. There's been plenty of companies that burn through cash like that. It's all about that original content and that's what they have to do right now in that kid who let's keep Amazon for twenty years isn't it yeah burn through cash. I O net flicks not bought a little over a year ago. I pitched this one as well. Everybody voted against me. Why did they go to because they didn't see the vision that he sees right now? In terms of the international growth pricing power and they've got both those people see that view that's why he founded C._B._C.. Executive vigil whatever are still at A._G.. Getting slammed today one trader says there's more pain to come though it's not gonna get any better. We'll break it out and talk about why checkout the Kramer Cam Jim Cramer speaking with Domino C._e._o.. That's DOT COM roasted today for those comments right after the break all right welcome back to fast plenty well the standout stock not a good way today was dominoes pizza deep easy sinking nine percent reported disappointing sales this morning C._o.. Rich Alison commenting on that a- and growing delivery competition with our own Jim Cramer just moments ago part of what we're going to see here in the near term is that there's so much investor subsidy into that business model right now. We're not really sure where it's going to shake out long-term because there's substantial discounting overinvestment in advertising right now to drive consumer demand. We don't know how that's going to shake out. Once consumers actually have to pay the full the cost of that delivery because those fees are quite substantial relative to the cost of the underlying food. You can catch that full interview tonight of course on mad money right after this program six P._M.. Eastern B. K. and Jeff you guys both viewpoint on Domino's well. What's interesting is that these numbers weren't horrible right so they still were growing? It's just not as fast as the street expected and the question then becomes. Is You know everybody's concerned about Patrick. Doyle retiring is the growth over he was certainly a visionary there <hes> what impact is pizza hut having on it and just talked about the fact that you can get delivery from anywhere at this point in time. It's not that unique so it's it's to me this no touch right now because of all those Jeff Yeah and just looking at the charts for example after the move we it's all after hours of broke below. The fifty day broke below the two hundred days so I think in the near term you could probably see a little bit more weakness in the stock. The debt levels in the company are still relatively high so I think that limits the company's flexibility going forward a bit and when you look at Domino's compared to the peers the international national footprint is quite a bit larger so to the extent that global growth has been a bit worse than growth domestically here in the U._S.. I think Domino's is probably a little bit more exposed to so for now. We're going to stay away. Okay two goes there. All right crew getting crushed today. We're GONNA talk energy stocks because they got taken down with the oil companies here one trader though just betting that the oil problems are going to continue details after the break Walker back the fast money crude oil prices falling today on comments from Secretary of State Michael Pompeo who said a cabinet meeting that Iran is prepared to negotiate with the U._S. about its missile program that also brought down energy stocks energy had been doing well this summer but still the second worst performing sector and the S&P This year and options traders think there's trouble ahead for one of the group's top performers in the last month. Mike Co Joining us from San Francisco with that name and why Mike Yeah So. We're taking a look at slumber J.. One of the largest oil service companies now as the stock has been rising essentially over the course of the last last month up about ten percent. We've seen open interest in the August thirty seven and a half puts rising as well today we saw well over two times. The average daily volume the result of four thousand lot put spread the August thirty seven and a half November thirty seven and a half put spread was traded for just over a dollar so the person who is buying it spread is laying at a little over four hundred thousand dollars in premium essentially to extend the Barish bet that they've already been having on basically over the course of the last month out to November and if that trade is going to be profitable slimmer Jay is going to have to fall at least ten percent. That's the downside break even here so we've been seeing the put open interest in these names build essentially as they've gotten a little bit of a rally off the higher crude prices and I think they're capitalizing on the idea that might not last Mike Cohen San Francisco. Mike thank you very much as always for options action. Check out the full show every Friday five thirty P._M.. Eastern time up next you'll final trades type your final title trades around the Horn. I Jerry Got Minnesota Company that has not treated well for quite a long time but I think it's ready to start making that. Turn of the upside three M Giddy up were there for oh yeah yeah talking about the strength of the airlines which is great however these things should be traded so tag a cell phone calls against united. I call yeah I like that. I think you go broader and you sell the entire transport. I Y T go lower. Wow okay boy heat on the transports P._N._C.. Positioning and copper looks very sure right right now look for a near-term reversal. We think the price of copper is going higher going higher or good economic sign. Perhaps Jeff Bills by the way thank you great. General was always thanks for taking thanks for watching mad money with Jim. Cramer begins right now.

facebook Brian Jerry Karen Jeff Netflix qualcomm Pete Nigerian apple Google Jeff Bills Cam Jim Cramer United Domino France Tom Rogers San Francisco America Bryan
Fast Money 02/04/20

CNBC's Fast Money

44:42 min | 1 year ago

Fast Money 02/04/20

"At fidelity value is automatic. Starting with the rate you can get on your cash when you open a new retail brokerage account learn more at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services member. NYSE law from. New York's Nasdaq market site. This is fast money and we have got a big show tonight here to guide you through it. Steve McCarron fineman also joined by Chris. Ronnie is head of technical research at strategic fatigues. Alright tonight on fast we're tackling three big money head scratchers number one. What Else Tesla the stock that is captivating? Everybody everybody surging another thirteen percent today even after a late date pullback and in the options market things are even more crazy or to break down the action. How much money? Some people may have made head scratcher number two ebay. Let's talk jumping on late dig reports about a takeover offer for the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange by. This could be a game changer for you. The retail investor which brings us to head scratcher number three. Today's rally stocks having their best day since August. The NASDAQ DOC. A new record close. So whatever happened all the fear and loathing around the corona virus. We are going to get some answers to all three of those and much more. Of course all ahead Ed. But we've got to begin with this speaking threes the magic number we've got earnings triple play. Snap poured and Disney. They're all on the move after reporting their results and as always of course yes. We've got full team coverage for you standby breakdown all of these names and the reaction. Let's kick it off with the biggest of them. All and that is Disney to question. Is this baby yoga. And streaming rule the quarter. What had been said about corona virus? This quarters Karenina. Julia Borsen Away with more on this and also great news. Her exclusive interview with Bob. Iger Juliette ticket away. That's right. Brian Disease shares moving higher in after hours trading on better than expected results when it comes to revenue earnings and also those all all important streaming subscriber numbers Disney plus ended the quarter with twenty six and a half million paid streaming subscribers and Bob Eiger just announced that they added added more than two million additional paying subscribers. Since the start of twenty twenty this despite the fact that the flagship show the Mandal Laurean had come to an end he did announce that the medal or will be coming back this fall and he said they were not going to update the company's guidance having between sixty million and ninety million subscribers burs Bhai twenty two thousand four. Take a listen. We were actually heartened by the fact that after the original episodes of mandatory and we're all made available so we really didn't see significant. Turn from that as I said earlier we continue to see subscriber growth from the end of the year December. Twenty eighth through yesterday yesterday now when we also asked him of course about the impact of Corona Virus Disney has closed Shanghai Disney as well as Hong UNCON- dizzy. Co saying that the CFO just said that the closure of Shanghai Disney could impact the company's operating income by one hundred thirty five million dollars in the next quarter assuming that the park is closed for two months take listen to how eicher explained that potential impact in Shanghai in high the business there has been really strong and it's a shame that we had to shut down but obviously this is something that is a big concern to us as well. We have thousands thousands of people that work for us in in that area of the world and we have concerns for them. We've concerns for the world as well and the people of China of course and we'll talk about a little bit more in terms of specifics but it's it's hard to be very specific without knowing. How long's Colest- eiger noting that of course this does come off significant growth in the parks the park division growing it's revenue eight percent in its operating income nine percent in this past quarter but eiger was overall optimistic that there would not be meaningful impact outside of China though? Of course it is a is an issue that he is and his team is monitoring very closely back over to you guys Julia really abortion with a big exclusive. They're in a great interview as always Julia. Thank you very much guy. What do you make of Disney's court other ads the Disney plus numbers ridiculous? I mean it's astounding running and you're not gonNA. I don't think you're GONNA get a lot of churn with this once. People are on. They'RE GONNA stick regardless of John delorean or mandatory and whatever movie that I didn't see this out there now the real problem with this it comes down to. Can you get your arms around valuation. That's been that's been the knock for awhile and it's grown into the valuation so twenty three and a half times next year's number given the growth rate is probably not absurd but I also think that it shouldn't traded such a huge premium some of the competitors. I think the Viacom's comcast I think those the numbers needed to get ratchet up and I think they will give you look at their subs though if you'll get apple. TV plus there were rumors of Apple. Going ahead of Hulu and Disney the Disney would have had a knockout would have had to have a knockout number on subs. Growth would have had been above the thirty million mark. I think that would have impressed the street more. I'm still looking for multiple expansion going forward right now. It's still below it's fifty. I'll let Chris talk to that. I wait to put money to work. If it crosses over the fifty day to the we focus so much on streaming I get it. It's the sexy thing. It's the new thing our D- to order. You want to call it better life care less for I just did. Let's forget Karen. The parks ORCS are a bigger part of the business. People think we rarely talk about them. And now you've got a couple of parks in China closed for a fairly long time for a quarter right. I don't know it was interesting where they came up with that one hundred and thirty five million dollar potential impact. The parks are tremendous business. But I really think people will look through the corona virus and really give them a free pass on not only this quarter but next quarter as well. Because I think it'll take a while for people to feel comfortable again and also for the movie the business I mean. He talked about in. That interview talked to that interview with Julia about some of the films. They want to release in China. Moulana was one but that you know people aren't going to the theaters in China right now. So they got to rethink that a little bit but I think the market will give them a free pass on both of those things. I think the chart has to be owned here. I think we need to remember members. These spent five years in fifty point. Range it only broke out last April. This is still a new move by our work. Look at that one forty area. It's continued to to provide support every big move in the stock over the last year's been on big volume so it's being accumulated when you get weakness particularly to get after hours here. I think you have to step. I've been in support the stock. This is a long-term leader in a good group owning and two guys point you look here. At the Holders Vanguard State Street Black Rock and state farm going anywhere those those are passive holders for the most part. No it's you and I with these. ETF's twenty percent of Disney is owned by four relatively passive investment. They're not going to sell right. But if you whoa you don't care about who is not going to sell as much as who is the next buyer and the next buyer is the growth buyer. That's the ones that's why yes. Parks is a twenty twenty six billion dollar operation but people looking for the growth the growth comes through streaming comes through. Internet comes through that process. That's where we get multiple expansion not from park sued on the growth. Though it doesn't they're going to be spending spending spending right so at Netflix to spending spending spending. I don't know when ultimately you need you to make money on that so far never does it. Never see the as long as you never worked here. Where saying about the parks but let's be clear? How many five ninety nine a month Disney plus subscriptions are going to make up for a family of four spend at Disneyworld Hongkong Todos Santos unlocked? That's not what law pay for growth. It was the same thing with Apple Apple Hardware Company until it wasn't a hardware company. It's about services not about hardware these about streaming not. What about parks okay? Let's talk about streaming right now because I understand it. WE'RE GONNA go back to Julia Gordon. Who's got some breaking news on Boola Boola? Yes that's right Dizzy just announced on the earnings call which is going on right now who will launch in twenty twenty one internationally after Disney plus is through the bulk of it's international launches. So this is a big deal who has been just focused here in the US. It does They did start to reveal some growth numbers for Hulu with thirty point four million million subscribers in total twenty seven point two million of those just streaming video-on-demand but that is just domestic. This'll be a big deal. When Hulu Launches Internationally A and twenty twenty one guys back over there we go big international launch and Twenty Twenty One and speaking we'll go back to streaming Steve Grasso over here because there wasn't a school of thought and it's a little weird but it's there which is that the streaming companies may benefit from? What's going on because people are confined in China particularly to their homes? You're bored what do you do. We've seen a sign up for new services right. We've seen in the run up in the next Netflix stock. We've also seen the Chinese net flicks. which is I q that busted right through resist right around twenty four dollars? All of these things should be bought. Anything China related should be but you like it streaming for on you like get worried more dizzy coming up all right. Let's move on now up. We've got some breaking news out of speaking of new numbers. We're getting some numbers by the end of last night's Iowa Caucus Kayla Toshi who was in Iowa with more Kayla. Brian with sixty two percent of data reported that I would Democratic Party now says that Buddha jr the former southbound mayor is currently in the lead as far as state delegate equivalent counts. Go at this hour. This this is only with sixty two percent reporting but they do say that the sixty two percent of data comes from all ninety nine counties following Mayor Pete is Senator Bernie Bernie Sanders after that Senator Elizabeth Warren after that the former vice president Joe Biden. And after that Senator Amy Klobuchar certainly a win at a caucus caucus like Iowa would have provided a momentous moment for any of these candidates but notably specifically for P. Buddha judge someone who is a a relative unknown just a year ago and would be the first openly gay candidate to win a presidential primary in any state. So that would certainly have been an historic moment. If it were a moment that he were able to claim now we often see that when you have a winner announced on caucus night if it would have happened and last night you would have seen a massive bump in the polls going forward with the debacle. That's that's developed over the last twenty four hours. Unclear if you will see that jump in the polls holes but certainly notable historic momentous To say that Buddha judge is in the lead with sixty two percent reporting. Although you can bet brian that other campaigns we'll take issue with this data Senator Bernie Sanders is campaign overnight. said that it had its own data. That showed that he was in the lead. So expect some backlash here a a lot of questions Kale. I don't WanNa put you too much spot and this is all kind of breaking first off. We know in the remaining thirty eight percent is going to come out and also sixty two percent. I mean we don't have companies reporting sixty two percent of their quarter on the quarterly numbers. Is there any people are asking. Why sixty two percent? Why now? Why not wait till you know? Oh everything before coming out and maybe getting some false hopes up and making other people upset. Of course we have a lot of questions for the Democratic Party here in Iowa whether we have not been able to get answered some of those very questions that you just outlined Brian perhaps sixty two percent felt like it was a rough majority that they felt comfortable going Ford with all of the campaigns have raised issues about the partial release of data. Why not wait until it's done the sanders campaign on a call earlier today said that It believed the Biden campaign was pushing the party to withhold some of the data because it didn't think that it was going to be flattering stood. There has been some behind the scenes hand-wringing about who exactly wants what's this data to come out. The party earlier today said that the full slate of data would be readily available when it is fully verified whether that's a week from now L. or a month from now but clearly they felt like that last thirty eight percent either was not verifiable at this moment or that they owed it to the public to provide the majority of the information when they had it. And that's why they decided to put this information out now or in Iowa knows along kind of an odd night there judge by the way basically claiming victory at around midnight night. Watch that Kayla. Thank you very much trade this keep this right in the CNBC lane as well guide dummy there was again a school of thought that sort of ABS anybody but sanders enders might be the more positive outcome for the equity market looks pretty good for Buddha. Judge Dare does it matter to the equity. I would say we were talking before the show. I think a lot of a lot a lot of the rally to the entire rally but a lot of is predicated on the fact that there was such a crazy evening in Iowa and there were no clear winners. I mean I can make an argument. That if Bernie had emerged victorious last night you would have seen a benign to negative day for the broader market. And I can't do the counterfactual thing I get it. But the fact that it continues to be muddled I think it's pro- it's positive. President trump positive president trump is positive market. I think we'll we gotTA watch tomorrow's. How do these healthcare stocks that have been so impacted by this as the managed care names? UNH She monitor. How do they treat against this backdrop? We're talking about the former stocks as well with frankly act pretty good we had. Jj break out today. We have Pfizer acting better. I think that's is GonNa be the big story but when you look at the betting market right the betting markets are good. Tell on what the market thinks of these things. It's actually Mike Bloomberg who shot up the Betty markets over the last ten fifteen minutes minutes here so the market perceives. The mayor doesn't matter which side of the fence you're on. There won't be a Republican or a Democrat who is more pro growth pro corporations prior a lower tax rate cut regulation that trump. So it's a negative to anybody else but trump mike loyal even Mike Bloomberg. You've you've heard how one's the gated company. That is based on wall. Street's success by the way she does not do well Bloomberg. LP does not one of judges quotes was we have to stop the ever expanding arm. Big Business needs to be stopped to improve our democracy that doesn't sound hopeful for the six or eight names that have kept this market going forward. Well I think you're probably right in terms of who the market perceives to be the best the best to be an office for the market to do better. But you know I think that for me Mike Bloomberg I could do a good job. Negotiating trade with China. I think he's a smart design. We're not getting into that but I think there are other candidates that that are moderate of Warren Sanders. That could be okay for the mark. I think other sectors to Chris and again we're talking about this from a CNBC perspective. You can't ignore the fact. I mean the politics but you can take the NBC lane. I think you also have to look at them talking my book here a little bit about oil and gas. When you've got some candidates you're talking about pretty much ending fracking thing or parts of fracking? That sounds bullish oil and gas right so I think what's been ironic about the trump administration is what was going to be very pro energy. Your situation right too much. Supply apply drill drill drill or not enough I think if you look at a warrant presidency or sanders presidency. Where fracking is banned or they try to pass that that sounds like it's bullish energy? That sounds like it's bullish crude dude. I think that's the kind of talking specific comes. You say I'M GONNA throw it out there. A Devon Energy Devon energy a large part of their portfolio is fracking on federal and New Mexico. If they can't do that that's a a big part of their business. That would go away. They're certainly agree to companies like that. We have to go to break quickly on a day. Where the Dow's up four hundred points to your? We had a conversation last one. Exxon Mobil closed below sixty dollars. Today closed down one and a quarter percent. We've been talking about this for a while so I don't know what the right entry point is an energy the and big cap integrated but it ain't here in my opinion here yet a lot a lot of people agree with you guys all right so there you go big ape block. They're running out with the island news. Thank you Kayla. Tau She coming. We're GONNA dive into some of today's other big numbers you got snap. You got four. They're both moving after hours. And Not in the way that investors probably WANNA see. We'll get full team coverage on both of those and then talk of a deal that has many scratching their heads. Why is the parent? Company of the New York. Stock Exchange reportedly interested in buying ebay. Ebbe Schwab be worried. We'll be soon be buying clothes and bikes for the New York Stock Exchange and a reminder check out the CNBC apper watching listen. Live anywhere where you want to be or back right. After this more fast money at fidelity we work to get you a better price for every trade see how much we saved. INVESTORS LAST YEAR AT FIDELITY DOT com slash price improvement fidelity brokerage services member. NYSE THE SIPC and welcome back to fast money the earnings parade really really rolling on. You've got Ford and snap while. They're both thinking after hours. Kate Rooney's Oliver snaps earnings call. But let's get started with Philibeaux who's back at H. Q.. On Ford Phil Brian. Brian take a look at shares of Ford down more than nine percent. After hours the conference call with analysts has just begun but this is a company that gave investors a real one two punch in terms of the earnings results assault the first punch missing for the fourth quarter coming in with earnings of twelve cents a share the estimate was for fifteen cents a share. Yeah revenues a little bit better than expected but it's the guidance. This is the Second Punch to the gut ninety four cents to a buck. Twenty for twenty twenty. That is what they're expecting to earn the estimate on the street earnings of a dollar twenty six six you take a look at shares of Ford since May of two thousand seventeen. The reason that we're showing this to you is because may of two thousand seventeen is when Jim Hacker took over as CEO. And he said you know what we're going to turn around this company. A pretty ambitious plan geared more towards mobility mobility in the future and leveraging investments investments in that area as it hasn't kicked in yet and a lot of analysts are likely asking questions on this conference call when will turn around kick in because so far it hasn't okay that's Ford. I also understand. There's some breaking news may be wrong. Compensation on Boeing. We're talking about new CEO. Dave Calhoun and as part right of his contract when he became CEO. There is a clause in there that he is potentially eligible to get a seven million. Dollar Bonus if Boeing safely returns the 737 Max to service. When this came out there were some in Congress who said? We're not sure that there should be an incentive of seven billion dollars for him him and Boeing to get this plane back in the air. Boeing has responded sending a letter saying it is going to keep that clause in effect it has however initiated and put into effect a number of safety related clawback measures so that. Let's say if something happens where they get back in service and then there are big issues that develop they would be able to then potentially claw back some of that seven million dollar bonus so again bowing to Congress. We're going to keep the seven million dollar bonus honest in place for Dave Calhoun if he can safely get the seven three seven Max back in service and again guys. They're hoping for that to happen by the middle of this this year clearly it depends on the FAA regulators around the world. Yeah it seems like it'd be more to the FAA than the Boeing but Philip Oh there you go thank you very much two piece of news there and Ford and bowing. Well let's talk about four. Obviously this has been a tough investment for a lot of people for a long time. You take. I don't like it. I mean you know Phil talked about it. This this turnaround isn't really happening and this was actually I think Europe in China did decently so it was really an operational miss. They called it themselves. I mean there should be someone embarrassed I speaking of embarrassment own. GM have owned it for a long time. I feel like Mary. Barra has done a much better job of positioning them correctly. But if if you're an auto and you're not Tesla I mean you didn't trade anyway. Just last night Dan. Nathan's final trade was GM and his thesis. Although it was quick it was final trades was when some of the hot money comes out of test maybe it will go into the GM's of the world. Maybe Ford I wonder if he's coming out of fourteen going into I don't know that say. GM The m that would make more sense that holders would be the same holder. Tesla seems to be a different older. We'll see GM Tesla I think rural thumb in these markets don't own stocks and bear markets and Ford is still in a bear market is going to open below eight forty. That's a fresh low can own it here. Own Toyota owned Volkswagen. They're better charts. No incentive on the charts done narrow none in. I don't expect you to watch this show every night Brian however for years. Now we've been saying if Ford can't can't do it. Get it right in the environment that we find ourselves in with the SNP at an all time high in arguably the best auto market over the you know maybe the last fifty years. When is it going to happen open? And if they want to turn something around they should turn the chart around and maybe it'll look good because it's grim death the way I look at it and that seven forty level from December of two thousand thousand in one thousand nine hundred is right in the crosshairs now that you have negative. EPS growth okay nothing charts. I mean this Ford was what day eighteen dollar stock about five years ago. All right. Let's move on to snap and it's cracked down big after hours. Conference calls also underway right at a Kate Rooney and San Consistent with four snap jets. Quarter as right. Hey Brian Statutes parent company missing on revenue and analysts. Telling me that's what's causing the Stock Doc correction here. It's come back off the lows but had been down as much as fourteen percent after snaps top line. Revenue came up short revenue for the quarter was two million dollars is below estimates average revenue per user also amiss snap was four cents shy investments. But there were some positive numbers for the quarter snap beat on the bottom line. Earnings earnings per share came in two cents vestments and a key milestone to point out here Q.. Four was stamps first. Profitable quarter on an adjusted basis since going public about about three years ago daily active users another bright spot and a key metric for social media companies that was above analysts expectations snapshot now has two hundred eighteen million users. Three million above what Wall Street was looking for expectations. Were Pretty kyw coming into earnings. The stock had seen more than one hundred seventy percent. Rally your rear are we seeing Dr Markman. Haney telling me the stock is starting to come back now. Thanks to stops guidance for q one which shows revenue acceleration but analysts will be asking for more detail detail on how exactly they planned to that after. This quarter Miss Brian. Can you help us out here. Why was there such a big jump in? Da Us daily active users is it all because discover features at keeping people around. They mentioned that the holidays as well that a lot of people were chatting friends and family over the Christmas this holiday week in particular. That's a big part of it. They also mentioned advertising so that also seems to be a bright spot but that is really what analysts seem to look for and so despite the revenue miss some key metrics folks were pretty happy about Laura. Thank you very much. Listen snap may be down twelve and a half percent after hours but if you've listened to this man snap Steve. Grasso made a lot of money yet in long and ride on the stock body. Would you change. No No. And it's it's guy and I were going back and forth where I was doing. My chart work. This was a play into earnings. The reason why I got cute and stayed long. It's still still up twenty percent in the street. I was up twelve twelve percent more than I am right now before this. This stock reported earnings. This was going to be a play into earnings but I thought that it was unfairly. PUNISHED WITH CORONA virus. I thought it got lumped into a bunch of the side and I thought I carved out a little bit of a niche where I could make some profit out of this but if you look at it don't these stocks work off daily daily active users. They beat on that for me. That's a positive they were in this trotting as they're out of that trophic fees to miss two million dollars is nothing in this name. I'm gonNA stay long long. I still believe there's a bright future. It's still growth stock international growth. I'm saying you've been around in the name. Steve Thank you all right. There is a lot more that we have done. And there's a lot more coming up on fast money. Here's some what we got on TAP. You think Tesla investors made a lot of money this week. That's nothing compared to the gains. Some options traders may wreak AAC. Mike Co Breaks down. What's happening in the options market? And how you play the trade plus Disney shares on the move after earnings boomtime deeper into the numbers with media mogul Tom Rogers. We've got that and more when fast money returns. Walk fast money. We've got a news alert right now for you. On the corona virus that death toll jumping again in China. It's been right out of Frank Collin with more on this. This developing story frank. O'Brien is the latest Chinese state media. They say an additional sixty five people have lost their life in relation to the corona virus outbreak that now brings the total on on mainland China to an estimated four hundred ninety thousand again these are certainly fluid numbers that number and estimate the global number approximately four hundred ninety two Chinese state media say the are additional deaths us in the Philippines and Hong Kong again. The death toll mainland China. Now four hundred ninety. That is an estimate. Sixty five additional cases have been reported back over to you all right Frank Frank. Thank you very much. I've moving on. Yeah let's talk about this very quickly is obviously you want to have these numbers B zero. I mean the reality. Is You want to have the numbers. Go down not got up. There was a little optimism I think in the last twenty four hours forty making those numbers guidance. I it's not it's not encouraging and we can have this debate. I think he continues to get worse. I think other people on the desk continued. Then it gets better. I hope I'm wrong. But the market is looking past that at least four today. So we'll see you know it's very very hard to handicapped something of this magnitude my for my money though. I think the news continues to get worse before you only handicap it for me is the mortality rate. So the fatality is still. They'll sticking around two percent to three percent. It's horrific if you're the two to three percent of course but as long as it stays to that level the markets will not get overly excited sited at an extended period of time. And we care about everybody but we also care I think from an equity market perspective if it if it stays subdued here in the United States I think we have what eleven cases obviously thankfully a very very low number. We care more about what happens here from an equity market perspective. I think we have to listen to the message of the market. Here look at the casinos and the hotels and the airlines. They're going to tell us whether this is getting worse over coming days and coming weeks I mean look at the action market. Today it was okay. Breath robust would have liked to see for fifty two point. SNP rally so. I think the jury is still out as to whether or not there's more lakes at the story. Watch the `sensitive stocks even watching apple here. I think apple just given the exposure to that parlor world is going to give you clues as to where we go from here okay. Let's move on to another big story in the market. Could not just today but this year would you believe us if we told you because we're going to tell you. Tesla is up two hundred percent in the past twelve months. How about three hundred percent in the past six months or that? It's doubled in a month. You probably think the crude maybe hit the bar a little too early for the show but they did and all that is true and and if you think the stock action is unbelievable just wait until you hear how some people options market of done Micon San Francisco to talk about. What's going on and I guess who's going to be buying a new yacht? It's quite extraordinary. What we're seeing in TUSLA almost unprecedented? I would have to say so it was the most busy single stock option today. Perhaps unsurprisingly it traded over one point three million contracts overall on that saying something for a stock that actually was closing in on on a thousand dollars at one point today now. Last week we highlighted at trade somebody went out and bought nine hundred of the June. Eight hundred strike puts those were way calls. Excuse me way out of the money. At the time that we highlighted this spent nineteen dollars a contract for those those traded over two hundred fifty dollars today. The buyer of those calls made over twenty million dollars in in one week maybe even more extraordinary than weekly nine hundred strike calls those were trading for five cents last Friday. They traded for over one hundred dollars today. Today that is quite an incredible return when you think about it. The thing is that options prices right now are extraordinarily high in fact in the Russell one thousand els and only penny stocks have higher implied volatilities than Tesla does right now ninety day implied volatility for Tesla is one hundred percent. So if you're thinking about out using options yourself to make directional bets it's probably going to be very expensive to do that unless you use spreads and even those can be quite expensive and some examples I would provide i. I was looking at a one thousand twelve hundred call spread. That would cost about forty dollars to make that bet. So that's a that would go up from about nine hundred bucks approximately where the stock closed close today. Now if you're making similar bet that it could decline by like amount that would be buying the eight hundred six hundred put spread. That would actually cost you fifty five dollars so the options market right now now seems to be betting that there's a bigger chance that the stock could decline from these really elevated prices that we're seeing here then it would go up but I will tell you this. If you're thinking about making your bets and Tesla it's probably smarter to use option that way you can manage your risk because we can see this and can really move around stocks up over one hundred bucks today while truly incredible. We'll stop there on the opposite side as well Mike. Thank you very much and for more stuff like that. Checkout options action that show every Friday five thirty. PM Eastern time on deck. What may be the the most bizarre potential deal a long time? You'll you'll never guess who maybe making a bid for Ebay and later on there's a new secondary market emerging in cannabis and. It's maybe not for what you might think Jane Wells is here and she's got the story from Chicago when fast money returns. We don't say this lightly but this is an interesting story check out. ABC Surging after the Wall Street Journal reporting that it received a takeover overall for from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange the ICE Intercontinental Exchange. You kind of got US scratching our heads. Grassley you work down the New York Stock Exchange. What is your take on this? It's not a deal. It say reported and less stress. Let's stress this is my take. I no way shape or form speak for the exchanges exchanges is me talking about the same way we talk about every other stock on air using what I think they're trying it's obvious they're trying to get into crypto. They're we're trying to get into graded coins Dell and I think this makes a ton of sense. It's an auction market ebay. So wouldn't this seem I'm like if they're trying to get some around some regulatory issues. This might be a way to check a box to get into the CRYPTO business and SORTA SORTA dip. You're telling it and get around a lot of those regulatory issues that might be the roadblock to them with the normal exchange I see I see. There's two potential else theories here. I guess guide number one is they use their expertise at dealmaking to help me better at its core business. I want to buy bicycle faster. They will do that or they disassemble. E based core business and create effectively a retail stock market with. Maybe a place to sell research as these mifid rules and everything kill analyst research and the lab and you layer that on top of what Steve Just said and you look at a company that's under stocks underperformed and you say you know what this could be an interesting play for an ice for sure. I mean. The last quarter wasn't particularly great. Every analyst Wash and say a lot of analysts have hold or and underweight on this stock. And then you start to think like maybe this is an undervalued asset that makes sense. It's valuation-wise it's not crazy ridiculously expensive so I think you could probably. It's been a hard stock to own. I think you might be able to own it now on the back of everything you guys said. I think it's more I'm guessing. Also because I don't know this idea of them being able to run their marketplace business this which really is the heart of Ebay much better that they're they're good at those auction as you said that they could be able to run that much better. The other thing is interesting. How did this this come out today? Why did this come out? It would seem to me that it came out from the ice side or of probably the Iside were shareholder who knew of ice interest to put pressure on the board. This board has been under pressure for a year and a half from Elliot Today from starboard and that they haven't been able to turn around the marketplace business and so this is a good time to really put pressure on the board. I'm skeptical of bad chart that get bailed out with deal news and this has been a bad chart all year and in a market that's made new highs is if new high afternoon high this has been a laggard as guys said for much of the last eighteen twenty four months. So I think if you're long here you've got out today take profits if you're short. Let's stick with it. It's still a vulnerable politically. Should we avoid Schwab and E. Trade. Because maybe this is coming write it down while all the first boy. You don't bet against speaker right the Zeo by CEO of ice he. He's got a long track record of being successful so I wouldn't bet against him there. But all of these names when you just started talking about the other names in the group. They all trade off of the yield curve steepening so keep an eye on that before you worry about this but I do not believe that Jeffs breakers by Ebay to sell Schwinn. Well I have a feeling this could be a topic of conversation down on the floor tomorrow. Just a wild guess coming up check out the after hours action on Disney. The conference calls going on now. The stock is up about a half a percent. Are you looking GONNA make some cash in canvas. We've got the latest craze in that space that is investors maybe seeing green. But maybe not where you think and our Kramer camp. I'm Jim this is a big one politically talking to the sea of seventeen about. What is the health for health care in this political environment? Is Buddha judges reported. Victory Three ish in I will vote. Wealth of the seventeenth of the world will find out as always. We are live at the Nasdaq Times Square. We're back right after this I was asked earlier on CNBC. About whether I felt threatened by competition. There's obviously more competition and coming into the space but there isn't any competition that is like ours like our product because of the investments that we've made in those franchises sizes and the quality of the product that we've made over the years and we're continuing to make. That was dizzy. Oh Bob I just moments ago. In the company's conference call referencing Julia Boorstin interview with him on this network. Let's talk more about that and disease big quarter with longtime meeting executive Tom Rogers. Welcome back. Tom Good issue. Thanks for having Kevin Me Bob. EIGER doesn't sound worried about competition. Should he be well he definitely should be worried about competition but he deserves a victory lap. One Hell Hell of a number hats off to Kevin Mayor who runs the digital streaming operations over there. I think what's impressive more than the numbers is a lot of people were thinking. Can these were overwhelmingly free subs that the are Pu. Hats off to your Arpaio d two very well done better than my peak wolf and peacocks. Peacocks clothing last week. I gotta say that. I am impressed with the revenue per sub that they're generating there the fact that only twenty ninety percent of the suburbs according to Idir are coming from verizon free first year sub base That that's pretty impressive. I think what's even more impressive is after the run a mandatory and they were they were adding two million subs on top of that. It shows this is not a one time and over kind of service. That people believe. I believe this thing has some stickiness and maybe as important as that is the fact that a lot of people were skeptical that you could take a movie franchise and turn Ernest Television because other than Mash. Nobody in the television space had really done that very well. And right off the bat they take a movie franchise and turn turn it into a TV hit. They're disrupting the TV space big time and quite intentionally. They're trying to preserve their theatrical window. And not so much be disruptors in the movie space this may give him some momentum toward thinking. Hey maybe we ought to disrupt the movie space a little bit more toward introducing to TV talent. Let me ask you. We're talking about earlier about spending content. Just the just the massive amounts of spent. How long do you think that we can go on before? We need to see some return on that. Well I think Inherent is that is what they've announced by way of spend is going to be what they really spend. Today they announced announced the launch of Hulu International that is going to be a big additional cash. Strange for a while. I think what is not so impressive and I I think this will involve more cash. Also is that Kulu didn't seem to benefit by the full bundling effect of the Disney Bundle that ESPN plus plus double digit subs on. It looked like the growth of Hulu which not only has the benefit of the Hulu of the Disney plus bundle but the WHO live live bundled. They're skinny bundle of many channels that they package Hulu in with not dimension reduction in price on the add version of Hulu all that work together had there didn't seem that impressive in terms of Hulu growth. Yeah and they still have all the network television shows. What does that say to me? Caryn answer your question. They have to spend spend more on original content for who particularly International. And so I don't think the original guidance they gave us on when they come out of this from a cash flow positive perspective. Active is clear. Let let me just. Let's just do the math for the Disney investor. And put you on the spot Tom because so five years ago you just base paid your hundred bucks hundred fifty a month and cable and in Disney took their chunk through ESPN and ABC. And whatever else they got paid for now that the way things are going. Do you believe that at the end of the day. At the end of the month Disney will collect select overall more money from viewers with a Combo of cable dizzy plus Hulu Espn plus. Then they were in the old old model that is the ultimate question and I think the market is betting that yes the growth of streaming is going to outpace the pace the decline of the legacy business. I think we are going to have a reckoning day sometime in the next two years where the fall off in the legacy business business surprises the market greatly. Keep in mind that going back seven or eight years to where we are today. Primetime television has lost fifty percent of its demographic ratings children's television in the last eight years has lost seventy percent of its ratings something Disney really looks at. ESPN the most surprising thing. There is that the cable and broadcast world have overcome the ratings decline by pushing up rates rates and holding advertising revenue pretty stable to growing what happened with ESPN. Even though football ratings. Were incredibly strong is it looked like they had a decline in AD revenue. That is the beginning of what is going to be a very starry story. We already seen court cutting coming out of the year over five. Five percent. Five million subs loss just in the year what is ESPN. Look like at sixty five million subs sixty million subs at seven or eight bucks a month month times. One hundred ten million subs at its peak. Down by fifty million subs. You're not going to get that back over. The kind of revenue were so far seeing being now. I'm that isn't to say that the multiple that you should apply to streaming versus the multiple on the legacy business isn't one where you overcome some of that but there's going to be a reckoning day on that and that that's why the pace of growth on the streaming is so important and something touched on in that interview as well. Tom Rogers great stuff off really important topic for a lot of reasons by the way here and outside. Tom Thank you very much. Thank right up next. Are you looking to make fast money in cannabis. Jane Wells Dell's breaking down the latest way that investors are seeing Green Jane crying them at the mission dispensary Chicago holding a very rare thing in Illinois right now because of tight supplies a full ounce of flour three hundred fifty dollars over four hundred after taxes. But you know more expensive. A fifty million dollar our cannabis license in Florida on the secondary market. What is crazy in the world of cannabis when we come back? I welcome back as more. Four states embraced the cannabis. Craze grab for licenses has created a whole different market was the latest State to legalize marijuana. Of course refined Jane Wells to break it all down. Jane Hey Brian Applying for licenses. Never sure thing so. Some investors are willing to pay a premium to acquire an existing license. The cannabis resale market is growing as many in this business face a cash. Crunch people license flipping absolutely Avis. Bullying often acts as a broker in cannabis. Licenses can run from two thousand bucks to tens of millions on the resale market depending thing on the state one example he helped a group of investors spent four hundred grand to buy some on the secondary market on that three or four hundred thousand was all -cerned turn down the flipped it the cash that about thirteen fourteen million in cash and the rest stock options. Their stock options aren't really worth much today. But I believe our Florida Florida license net of cash which was on the balance sheet. We paid forty forty three million dollars former Wall Street or Hadley. Ford is now CEO. Theo van this which has bought licenses and at least four states on the Resale Market Florida and New York are highly prized. Because licenses are rare and the case of Florida. Anthony took over firm. which already did the heavy lifting? And I think at that point they had invested somewhere between fifteen or twenty million dollars into the business. So it's what if we just bought a piece of paper that was really for a going concern. The license was just a part of the operation. Now I ant this like like all. The publicly traded companies has had a rough year madman. CEO resigned last week. So you can expect more licensed sales. Maybe a billion says technically these licenses are not transferable referrals like you can get a work around like if it's in the name of an entity instead of a person and the entity changes owners though you still might have to go through background check. He likes retail licenses because because he says they're hard to get he would avoid lap licenses because often. If you buy a lab you are not allowed to be in any other part of the business and guys states are taking note. Nevada has put a moratorium Riem on licensed transfers now back to you or Jane Wilson Chicago interests like the taxi medallions. Jane thank you very much all right time. Now for your final trades Steve Grasso kick kick it off for us. This is my name. I've been long shit shack. And look at that seventy dollars price range right there. It's been the resistance level. I guess going back to seventy two Shiksha Chris Chris we continue to like. Ge like fifteen the street is still too bearish get long. Simon Property Group. Maybe buying Talmon. But they don't need them like it. Brian did you see see the C M G comps. They weren't red hot. They were ready. They were White-hot C M G. My friend going higher pope troy. Thank you for watching fast money mad. Jim Starts Right now at fidelity online. US stock and ETF the F. Trades are commission free Zero Dollar Commission for Online Retail Fidelity Account U._S. equity an E._T._f.. Trades sell order assessment fee and some account type securities excluded fidelity dot com slash commissions fidelity brokerage services. Member N._Y._C. S._I._P._C..

Disney China Ford Tesla New York Phil Brian CEO Hulu Chris Chris apple United States CNBC Ebay Tom Rogers Steve Grasso cannabis Mike Bloomberg Julia
Fast Money 08/06/19

CNBC's Fast Money

45:15 min | 1 year ago

Fast Money 08/06/19

"Brought to you by fidelity where decisions are clear and costs are lower than ever learn more about our industry leading value and open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading reading the brokerage services l._l._c. member n._y._s._e. S._i._p._c. life and the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times where this is bass money. I'm melissa leo traders on the desk for tim. Seymour karen feinerman. Dan nathan guy dommie disney getting dinged shares tumbling after earnings miss. The company's conference call is now underway way we will break down all the big headlines we are also watching shares a win and match pro stocks on the move after reporting results and we're all over today's rally stocks to bounce back after the worst sell off of the year so this an all clear we'll debate that but we begin but the big mover after our business thinking reporting earning straight to julia boston got all the details julia well melissa in his comments on the call dizzy c._e._o. Baba stressing that the lower than expected results in the quarter are really the result all of the big changes that he has implemented the company both the fox acquisition and disney's pivot to embrace the streaming direct to consumer business which they're investing in so much right now now just announced that consumers will be able to subscribe to a bundle of their services for twelve ninety nine. They'll get hulu e._s._p._n. And dizzy plus worth noting that's that's the same cost as a netflix. Take listen to his comments here. Results reflect our efforts integrate at the assets businesses and talent. We acquired in order to enhance an advance. Our strategic transformation implementation of our integration gratien plan is well underway complex process given the magnitude of the endeavor and we remain confident in our ability to successfully execute our strategy c._f._o. Christine mccarthy that the acquisition twenty first century fox and taking control of who will have a dilute of impact on the fiscal fourth quarter of about forty five cents per share but saying that they are still on track for that acquisition to be accretive to earnings in fiscal twenty twenty one eiger stressing throughout his comments. The company's next leg of growth will be driven by the value of their new content library closer focused on leveraging fox's vast library a great titles to further enrich the content mix on our platforms for example reimagining home alone night at the museum cheaper by by the dozen and diary of a wimpy kid for a new generation on disney plus now speaking of disney plus the company missing streaming losses will rise to nine hundred million dollars in the fourth quarter. <hes> also wanted to touch on the lower than expected results at disneyland the anaheim park. I grew saying that there was so much concern about crowding around the launch of the star wars land the star wars galaxies edge land that kept people away <hes> both those key crowding concerns as well as the fact that ticket prices were higher and also hotels in the region raise their prices around that launch but he said long-term. They're not concerned. Turn because guests at his faction is high and they're looking forward to the launch of the second ride. The fact that it opened with only one ride may have also weighed on keeping those fans away guys back over to you all right. Julia keep us posted on the conference. Call julia borsen in los angeles for us at disney. Actually let's trade this. This is a tough because the fox integration makes your on your comparisons difficult difficult one area. That's tough studio for instance avengers which guys favorite movie love was released alongside the garden well that too <hes> but but so you had event the success of avengers the flop of dark necks and that makes things tough now and i think the court if this listen if this disney plus launch date november twelfth wealthed thinking this if they didn't announce that you know the twelve ninety nine the bundle. I think the stock would be down a lot more. You have to admit the stock is traded remarkably well since the end of april so when it traded up to one forty it's sideways to slightly higher ever since on what released recently it's been a pretty dicey tape the problem i have continues to be and you know we can debate it but at twenty two times forward earnings with no real tremendous earnings growth the least that i see a year so this stock is expensive by any metric took you look at in my opinion. It's expensive here with that said. I never thought it'd be up here. In the first place. Twelve ninety nine is the same cost netflix look. I think it's a major competitor. Look the fox content is is something that's a compliment to content that. There's a big argument outside a studio what they're actually doing. That's a value. I think maybe one of our guests was coming on might view on. That's we'll leave that for him. My view is first of all just guy in the valuation think of some other big brands out there with no growth a starbucks thinking cope think a walmart does he's got better growth the bottom line. Here's after april you have started to be able to value this company on a different multiple streaming companies. He talked about losses and investment. It's netflix doesn't make money and look at the multiple the company you should not be penalizing disney investing in this part of their business. I don't know how many subs they're going to pick up but at some point the street has to die this company differently at twenty three times times which is a premium multiple to itself but nowhere near the big boys this one hundred fifty dollars dock at very easy on twenty number. I mean don't i mean i think the key question here's i don't need to give a streaming multiple for part of disney's business at this point and so what does that take disney up to. I don't know already up to it already right multiple. They're already. There's no question about it. Remember how excited people got when they first announced and it was that seven to six hundred ninety nine that was worth a lot of money to it. I mean i think it's designed to premiere company not really lumpy quarter. You never know with merger that gives you a lot of opportunities to kind of. I don't know play with expenses charges. Whatever it is a premier company company though the only thing that there's not expensive compared to is netflix. It's not even obviously anywhere remotely close to where netflixing trading so. I think they're gonna pass. I just just kind of think that if you think of netflix one hundred and fifty plus you know net sobs or paid subs and you look at their conservative disney's conservative guidance for their o._t._t. Service and then you look at this bundle and you think about the things disney plus about e._s._p._n. And then you think the integration of all these assets and then you think about all that i._p. That's going to be coming off of all their editors. I don't really really know how you know how to value. This and i'll just make one other point about who being that bundle. I think hulu is the answer to how to solve four live streaming. That's the one thing that we have not seen on these platforms yet and that's going to be really important as as consumers start to cut the cord because that will be the missing piece. It's one thing to go back for guy to watch vendors and game six tie lines or something like that. It's another thing to get whatever that live content that a lot of content creators producing. That's a federal you know and that's the world that we live in right now so to me. That's the thing i don't in value. I find that i find that bundle very very compelling so when you say you don't know how to evaluate you're saying that it should be perhaps more valuable than we think this okay yeah i edison and let me tell you this november twelfth alliance. There's going to be a lot of the analysts jumping over each other to make expectations about what they're gonna do and what they're not going to do. The companies already told you that this is going to cannibalize some of that that t._v. Business they know that so look if you look at those estimates that's why it looks expensive trading twenty two times flat e._p._s. growth <hes> you know ultimately you should see this thing expand as earnings <hes> as we were earnings visibility over the next two years. Let's get more reaction to disney's results. Joining us. Now is longtime media executive and fast money friend. Tom rogers always great to see a tom. Would you make up your quarter so far well a lot. We still don't know a lot. We need to know <hes> but <hes> this bundling. The thing is big news and it really underscores. What a big deal. It was to do the deal with comcast that got them. The rights do bundling comcast had their the hands around disney's throat. I still not sure why they let them off. They didn't have to do that deal so quickly. What's that with hulu with who <hes> but it by doing this with hulu effectively agreeing to pay third of four third of hulu they got rights to be able to bundle now and with that that they can put together a much more compelling package <hes> we don't know the rest of the story here though without right to get the kulu under their control they got the right to pay hulu international play the real game net flicks is playing which is a big global game which is where the big big multiple hundreds of millions of subs ally that is a totally different expense game than the one they announced april and we didn't hear what they're willing to who invest for that what the cost of that are going to be. That's going to change the whole break even dynamic on the whole thing. The other thing we don't know yet is the decline nine of the traditional television. Business hasn't really bitten disney yet in a big way. We just hadn't reported from a._t. And t. and charter and dish rush and comcast the worst court cutting quarter ever terror and it only looks like that's going to accelerate and even when you take take into account the so-called skinny bundles bundles of skinnier packages that people were taking new still we're looking at about three percent rate decline going forward lowered. When we got the four percent decline in <hes> traditional telephone service we knew things were in trouble and it was going away <hes> they've been able to cover that for the time hi and being with the rate increases in long-term contracts on e._s._p._n. And other things but bottom line is when you lose twenty million subs from the traditional tv business over the next five years that are getting between the fox channels and the disney channel's fifteen sixteen seventeen bucks. You're making it up with twelve ninety nine. You gotta do twenty five thirty million channel sub on your streaming. It's twelve ninety nine just to break. It sounds like because you're concerned about the expenses that they might have to outlay for international expansion that we don't really know how that business is going to shake out in terms of profitability. I mean the span. Dan could far outweigh however many subs they get for twelve ninety nine <hes> that that is a concerned look with the forty billion dollars market cap going into this business since since april just to put in the media world context forty billion dollars market cap. That's c._b._s. Viacom together swimming they combine plus plus some so this is a lot of additional market cap with a whole bunch of questions. We don't know the answer to. They're doing the right thing screaming transforming the company but what the downdraft on draft is what the real risk is. We don't know a lot yet and they're packaged seems extremely competitive with netflix pricing in terms of what you get for that value of twelve ninety nine but when it comes to some of the other services that have yet to be launched like a comcast service etc where does this put disney and what what happens to those players who are trying to get a streaming service off the ground themselves well. Everybody is priced a bit differently. I think look if you're h._b._o. And you're trying to price at sixteen sixteen seventeen dollars above you today and you've gotten take thirty years to get the thirty eight million subs and you've had the mantle of the best programming around saying you're going to charge two dollars more sub and put friends into the package against disney come in twelve ninety nine with these three channels. <hes> that looks like a tough sell for h._b._o. Max so i think disney puts itself in a whole different position being able to bundle and price like this but before you get too excited about streaming you gotta consider just how much downside there is the traditional business and being with e._s._p._n. Dan and how much of the bundle is dependent on e._s._p._n. The number of subs that come off the traditional package for cable and satellite is going to define an awful a lot of does the growth and streaming outweigh the decline in the traditional business question. Tom thank you great to see you. Thanks for having me on rogers rogers. Not disney legends like if there's a mount everest pantheon pantheon of media analysts n._b._c. with that said i mean maybe comcast. I know exactly what tom saint but maybe comcast crunching numbers so you know what maybe who's a bit of a loss sleater. Let disney have it at a price which they got again. I'm not trashing disney here. I just think it's expensive and they really have to execute on this whole streaming thing otherwise otherwise multiple doesn't make sense all right by the way we're going to hear from disney ceo bob eiger tomorrow morning right here on c._n._b._c. coming out the market making a big comeback after yesterday's sell-off why one in top strategist says you want to embrace volatility plus. It's a match shares match soaring the after hours. We'll tell you what's driving. Those games went fast money returns. Hey i'm john harwood host of c._n._b._c. speakeasy podcast listening to my in depth conversations with political decision-makers folks like john delaney the first declared democratic presidential candidate for election twenty twenty along with senator sherrod brown senator elizabeth warren born and stephanie sri of emily's list those interviews and more on the speakeasy podcast subscribe today welcome back to fast money stocks rebounding today after posting their biggest losses of the year yesterday the dow posting a three a three hundred eleven point gain ain't so do you buy into this turnaround tuesday or was this one giant head fake before we start this conversation show of hands here on the desk. I'm just curious who i thought today's bounce was a head fake or raise your hand initially initially how in fact found sack back tuesday. Why was it so unbelievable. First of all we we had there was nothing structural that that turned and you know policy makers didn't panic by the way we're not even sure. Policymakers can do anymore more. I think there's been an appropriate slight reassessment of what what the chinese are doing with their currency but more importantly look at bond markets. Look at the rest of the world look at the deflationary spiral is with us and other if if you thought that the bond movie was an overshoot and treasuries and by the way and a trading perspective we have had moments. I've said this in the last two or three weeks. I think trait treasuries are overbought but the the bond market should have told you something different well. That's the thing right so you would have thought that i mean look at the ten year. Treasury closed at one point seven you know and we we know that people were calling those two two thousand sixteen lows generational lows. They're going back there. You know and maybe support at this point but they're going back there. So what does the bond market telling you about about growth versus the stock market that that is down less than two percent from last week or something like that to me. That's really the dangerous situation and i have always been of the mindset instead. I think guys with me here that this point in time now that we are a rate cutting cycle. It's a cycle it may not be great for risk assets like equities right. Now i agree with what tillerson nothing new happened except the market did rebound when we think about turnaround tuesday's think about our down big and then you start to see buyers saying you know what i know. The things are bad in the world. There's a lot of bear stuff you can point to but here's value and here and i want to be out there and i want to buy and then you see markets shoot around this started off strong and it kind of you know ended it up the day stronger. I find that i find this day so frustrating puts come in right right. They get so. I sold some puts. The morning course not enough and then the launcer launcer okay. That's nice but nothing's really different and i think there wasn't enough panic where you buy some volatility. Don't you twenty one right yes but in terms of what we saw yesterday overnight we saw a low on the dow was down more than six hundred i mean is it your inclination that you want to see us test that before we go i mean is that some sort of significant levels significant mentioned s._a._p. Level the fifty percent retracement basically december low in the recent high and i thought thought yesterday's clothes were about four percent away and i'll stand by that. I still think we should see that but one of the things i said last night is if you are bullish and this is counterintuitive intuitive. You want the market to open in a crater like fashion and then recover the rest of the day. We didn't see the today the carrots point. It is a very frustrating day because it's as much as you want to bush and believed that yesterday was it. It just doesn't feel right all right well. Let's brand chris harvey head of equity strategy at wells fargo securities chris good to see do we couldn't see your hand. Your hand was up when i asked the traders of fake <hes> so why do you think it was a head fake and how do you how do you trade the sort of market where you have. These down moves you. Have these bounces that you don't wanna bile titley so i think it was a little bit of a head fake because you're still technically you're not oversold at this point in time and what you've seen at the end of yesterday and today you saw passive louis convened. They ran the market up but all the issues that we're talking about whether it's rates whether it's trading tariff whether it's the fed they're all still out there and i think we just have to watch that out and i agree with with guy. You wanted to see a down tape. You wanna see that washed out and then you can start to lift going forward. We do two carats point. We do find value. The yield on the s&p five hundred is now above the tenure so every time you've seen that longer term there is opportunity opportunity but in the short-term we do think that you're probably pull back from here in terms of <hes> sectors though you do like semi's and that's been one sector that has been whipped around by all of these headlines certainly certainly we semi's we'd like somebody's on and off and obviously trade and tariff doesn't help the situation but we find good value there and we think that you can still make money too long side in the semi space base but i mean how would you characterize how your position though i mean i can't really figure out if you're a defensive or you've got capital goods diversified financials food beverage and tobacco and also semiconductors and so it was all over the map in terms of defensive offensive. We're pretty well diversified so what we say. We run a model portfolio that model portfolios a high quality model portfolios. It's quality at the right price so we're involved in tak. We're involved in. We're involved in in software and financials in consumer but what we wanna do is. We want to find good balance. You can find good balances in the semi's in a lot of the financials in some of the cap goods as well. How 'bout around the world. What are you gonna only be here. What do you think <hes> so with quality. We it does push us into the united states but we are starting on the value side. We're starting to find more value in the european <hes> sector so we're being very cautious clashes in that regard but we are starting find at the margin more opportunity in europe is there concern about europe the more the more china gets deeper and deeper into trade tensions and possibly the economy goes further and further south absolutely so if you look at the dax a significant portion of revenue from the dax is supported by trade with with china a lot of that china. <hes> trade is related to autos and so as auto slow down tariffs come in. You're going to see that treat. You're going to see that occur and what we saw in earning. Season is autos globally. I believe it's been continues to be very very difficult. Spot chris good to see you. Thanks for coming by chris harvey wells fargo. Let's continue to trade the bounce top performer in today's session tech doc day after leading yesterday self so how should you trade this tech turnaround. Let's go off the charts of todd gordon the trading analysis dot com. We look at hey melissa. Let's take a look at x. Okay this is the sector sputter that tracks the one hundred mostly eighty percent technology here. So what we've seen is a very nice kind of approach of the two hundred day. Moving average is the first thing just below right around seventy two on top of that. What we've seen is a percent decline that is less back here in a couple of months ago. It's only about a twelve percent decline. We're so far we've done about a nine percent decline so studying emotion aside decline we've seen so far is not anywhere <hes> and you know over balancing anything that is obnoxious compared to what we've seen in the past further. This is a new way to look at volume. What's moving average of volume typically on the sex okay in order to see real kind of moves in the market. We need to be averaging about fifteen to twenty million shares a day. Were just starting to move up about ten to twelve million. I continue to need to see more volume which i think won't be hard pressed to get in the middle of august so so far. I think an xs l. k. We look we look fairly supported to stocks. Doc satellite held up relatively well as adobe as to cloud plays. I'll pull up here if i can do my best up trending line on the summit log scale we we held perfectly right around two eighty. Ethic risk is very clearly defined. If in fact this was a tradable low we have the two hundred day that you could use a nice stop-loss there again nice risk to a good reward adobe next one brought along kind of another cloud play staples and tech microsoft exact same option support was was held. This one is getting support from the two. This is actually excuse me. This is the fifty day over your microsoft but one hundred thirty dollars support is found on the one one stock that it would see you have to wait on iona half a position in-app alone full positions and those other two just mentioned. Here's the deal and apple same kind of analysis alison. We obviously made a lower high back here but trendline support is not there. Two hundred day is not there. I really wanna see the one eighty six level here start to hold an apple. If you do break one eighty six there is significantly lower to go. I don't want to say it. I don't want to be taken on twitter here but there is going to be significant lose. I really wanna see one eighty six place. So that's my kind of one <hes> waiting play <hes>. The other thing i would say is guy mentioned the fifty percent retracement in the s._n._p. We we went up from the june lows that we just held yesterday. Big swoosh closed back above the sixty one percent retracement which is one of those v levels. That's at twenty eight forty that it was a key holed so everything looks pretty garden. Variety in terms of the pullback could get more but so far. It's it's. It's it's nothing obsessive here. Nothing excessive. I should say all right todd. Thank you todd gordon trading analysis dot com dan. Do you like or dislike any of the socks that todd talked about. It's really interesting the maga- microsoft obviously it's a pretty special will stock relative to the other mega cap names is obviously has held that trendline interesting the aga- alphabet the google apple never made new highs never confirmed the new highs in the s. and p. five hundred that were made last year. I'll just step on your nicely polished toes for a second here. If you liked alphabet after they reported a couple of weeks ago when that stock gapped up ten percent and yesterday yesterday filled in that entire gap and now today it's up about a percent half. This is your opportunity to buy right there because that is great support if you believe that those fundamentals carry through for the rest of the quarter we're talking these great ideas. Those years are up next. We are rolling the dice an and right shares winning match both on route after reporting results. We're digging into those names later. If you're looking for yield you're not finding it in the treasury market but we know where it is. We're going yield hunting. That's ahead. We are live from times square in new york city much more fast money right after this at fidelity you get value won't find anywhere else decisions. They're clear your costs. They're lower than ever and account fees. There's zero so you can invest with zero trade-offs open account today at fidelity dot com slash trading eating zero account minimums in zero counties apply to retail brokerage accounts. Only expenses charged investments such as funds managed accounts. N._h._t._s._a.'s commissions interest charges or other expenses for transactions may still apply see fidelity ability dot com slash commissions for details ability brokers services l._l._c. member n._y._s._e. Welcome back to pass any time for an earnings. Whip shares a wind resource and match group both on the move after reporting results. We've got full team coverage on both the names leslie picker standing by on match. Let's start with contessa brewer on win resort taking tessa hi hi there melissa c._e._o. Mathematics is echoing what we've heard other casinos say about macau that the high rollers aren't rolling so high he caused the v._i._p. Business choppy but he he says these are just episodic data points not a long term trend the results were clear the mass market gamblers are picking up the slack up twenty two percent and macau over last year and when is shifting focus from those high end junkets to concerts restaurants another non gaming offerings to come say at the crystal pavilion analysts asked about whether the trade war political turmoil in hong kong are affecting the scenario in macau and when you have hundreds of flight light canceled out of hong kong and some reluctant reluctant to travel. I do think that that's impacting the premium in business. However that feels it was very temporary and has really nothing to do with our business and everything to do with what's going on in the region in las vegas a surprise win on bacharach drop up sixteen percent versus the market up eleven percent on domestic table games up twelve percent when the overall strip was down six percent matic said in fact for the first time in five years the revenue per available room in las vegas increase more than nine percent. David katz of jeffrey says of wins results they they were a little mixed with macau below most estimates offset by las vegas overall a pretty strong quarter given how bad expectations are macau remember. Jeffrey just lowered their estimate full. Your growth in macau for gaming revenues one last note while encore boston harbor was open just for one week for the second quarter the company highlights lights the completion of the encore boston harbor reduces near-term capital and improves discretionary free cash flow. It was clear from the call here guys. They've got their work cut out for them. In terms of breaking into that competitive slots market all right contessa. Thank you contessa brewer on win tim i go to you. Is this one that you mean i would you rather be in a more or less megan exposed gaming name versus more heavily exposed mccown. The cyclicality of macau has been a big driver for <hes> these companies over the years too. I macau by any means is dead again. If you think about where expectations on account they've gone south in the last six weeks. <hes> and i'm not sure that this is a massive trend but ultimately we keep punishing on these mccown numbers where i in fact. I think the stock has had four headlines in the last two weeks that i just surprise me. This doc tends to be more of a trade war proxy roxie. This doc tends to be one hundred dollars. <hes> this is a stock that really found a fair amount of support <hes> called six months ago at the worst of the trade that sent me in the beginning of jews one hundred dollar stock july twenty ninety fifth. I think it was trading one forty so i went up forty percent. Basically i don't know four and a half five weeks a pretty significant move now. We're right back to one ten. I don't think the quarter was disaster. Year over year. Revenue avenue growth in macau was not great. Maybe one percent or so then you say you know what it's not crazy expensive valuation and if you don't think the world's blowing up in terms terms u._s. china thing that you take another shot on the long side but it's not just the trade. It's also start rolling in hong kong and macau gets destroyed. I mean literally like the casinos so i mean that's something. That looks like that's happening before. We get any sort of trade clarity so to me if you talk to people were in hong kong. Hong kong is massive throughway to macau's and those are all but but those are overdue. I think you've got to the point. I think is that does create an opportunity because tech and tech proxy plays out of china hong kong even those here that they eh tim my point is is like if there's a crackdown in hong kong. Where do you think they go next. It's cow. I mean if you think about the freedoms democratic freedoms that have been promised in the cow or or excuse me in hong kong think about what goes on in the cow so if they get hong kong under order okay then what happens next you do not want to be in macau that would i don't the issues with macau historically have been about capital flight <hes> as far as i can tell you right now to well. We don't know and i will say this is why we don't need up our macro conversation right now but it's why i don't think china's going to play around with currency but i i think your point is well taken. I think there's extreme value in that part of the world. You just have to be able to to buy and stay in the pocket all right. Let's get to mass group. That sock is soaring after hours. Let's leslie picker with the details less. Hey melissa beat on both the top and bottom line for mac but it's their tender segment sending that stock up nearly eighteen eighteen percent in after hours trading right now more than eighteen percents you can see they're tinder adding one point five million subscribers from last year up thirty seven percent matches subscribers overall were up eighteen percent match ruled out certain features during the quarter such as safety features read receipts on messages and the company is also expanding internationally to help drive user growth. Thanks to these forces matches raising full year revenue growth guidance to the high teens versus the mid teens previously and also the company says the back half of the year is showing quote meaningful acceleration in revenue an ebay growth versus the first half now matches hosting. It's conference call tomorrow morning. Okay so we should learn some more clues about what drove these results. During the quarter not including these moves today in the aftermarket though shares are up a whopping seventy three percent already year to date melissa wow leslie. Thank you leslie pick our on match group. <hes> can i mean that kind of revenue. Growth is just extraordinary right. I mean remember. I don't remember exactly it was when facebook threatened to have a competing product right dating service that of course never came to be the other thing to note about match very big short interest so you put up gigantic antic numbers like this and if you're short. I don't know you got to be somewhat concerned swiped right or left on match. No comment woke means you like it. Is that right. I'm jumped. I would just add euro excited about is in the tinder component but this is a company. That's growing sales mid single digit trading about ten eleven times and i just mentioned one thing stock back in november. It had a huge gap down to forty after tinder results disappointed appointed so you had the stock down at fordham disappointed. You have it up at eighty seven now when they're doing better than expected. I don't think you chased especially with that short interest because thirty five percents short you're crawling crawling all over each other to cover right now but where's it going from here. That said i learned oxygenated any seven. Where do they go to two hundred eight. Hundred know why that is that i only know what you tell me which i'm not sure if that's all other story coming up biotech moving on the back doc of two major headlines we'll find out what is dragging these names down plus rideshare company lips after report earnings tomorrow. We'll tell you traders are betting on even wilder swings for the stock doc much more fast money right after this welcome back to back. We've got a news alert on walgreens. Leslie pickers got the details leslie. Hey melissa walgreens closing about two hundred locations in the united states that represents about two percent of their u._s. stores this announcement they say comes after a review of the real estate footprint they say it should cost up to two billion dollars worth of pre-tax expenditures but eighty percent of that should lead to future future cash expenditures walgreens not really moving too much in the after hours on this news melissa. Thank you leslie picker. Well drug socks on the move today in the back of two who big headlines maxwell's back at c._n._b._c. headquarters with the details behind those moves -ma- well. Let's start with novartis that stock under pressure after kind of shocking revelation this afternoon gene from the f._d._a. Concerning this giants recently approve gene therapies all jen's ma now a lot of people have heard of this drug simply because of the price tag two million dollars for the one time treatment which was approved for the devastating childhood disease spinal muscular atrophy now the f._d._a. said today that novartis subsidiary of which developed the drug manipulated data and its application sultan's ma and what's more that the company knew about it months before approval and didn't notify the f._d._a. Until after the drug was approved now the f._d._a. Says the drug should stay on the market. It's still confident in its safety and efficacy but says it will investigate and could bring civil or criminal penalties now. The second big story of the day and the drug space opioids there are several several massive lawsuits moving forward seeking hold industry accountable for the epidemic and bloomberg news reported today that drug distributors offered to settle with state attorneys general for ten a billion dollars now the state agencies according to the report countered with forty five billion dollars shares of those distributors mckesson amir source bergen and cardinal health all sank today as even the ten billion dollars. Starting point is more than investors had expected but shares of drug companies involved in litigation tether mellon crowd and endo in particular also dropped today. Mckesson told us this afternoon afternoon that it has made no settlement offer as does explore the possibility it would want it to be a global one including not just the states but also local governments cities and counties melissa back over to you meghan novartis is that drop mainly because of concerns about the fallout from an investigation versus the impact on sales of the drug itself. Yes s. most likely it sounds like a situation where the quote unquote cover up is worse than the crime the actual data that were manipulated. Don't look like they really affected a lot of what we know about the the drug. It's just that <hes> this could cast doubt on all of the data that support the drug and the f._d._a. Is going to be looking into this for a few months yeah shocking that they knew for months mag. Thank can meg tyrel a guy tom. I m c k was critically. A final trade recently had a monster quarter stock actually did really really well if you look and now it's back down doug nine times forward earnings. Yes is a big headline deal. I get it but i think you buy the weakness specifically in mckesson. I think it's just probably overdone done quickly and novartis bring up ninety five dollars. Go back and look at july. Two thousand and fifteen see where the stock topped out at sea. We're atop that recently. You have tremendous menace headline riskier. So if you're in nevada i think taking profits but that's the original question. I think it's too much of mckesson to the downside so gordon j._p. Morgan hill is about four percent of their embedded value value so i mean this is really almost nothing except for it is <hes> it does cast some negative paul over the company. I it's it's a coincidence. It's also interesting back to the opioid thing the artists the company that did a deal with till rei and obviously to the extent of talking about candidates relation distribution deal and again we talked about the distributors who have effectively been the ones that have been hand in this stuff off out so this cannabis opioids is one of the reasons for being and it's just part of the reason why people are very excited about a lot of these companies that have huge valuations well excited because they think cannabis is an answer in some part to the opioid epidemic yes and i you know to me there's no question about the efficacy of integrated medicine and how it's actually made progress <hes> but oh you know this is not a place where the big farm is ready to go just yet but they're they're just waiting on a legal framework because if you don't think that these guys don't want to be in a place where they're actually helping a a an epidemic that they've helped to create i think in terms of the proposed settlement of ten billion dollars for all this companies per state law suits so that's their openings. I mean if that report is pinning salvo and that was more than expected right. I mean this seems like one of those situations where you've got all this headline risk and there's no way of of handicapping the outcome is so even though yeah today i don't know maybe it's overdone a little bit but that's a big bid. Ask spread right ten the big ten at forty five although if they were to have some global settlements some clarity clarity is really valuable. Certainty is very valuable goal but we're far from that seems all right coming up shares of lift going on a wild ride since its i._p._o. We'll tell you how the options markets playing lift ahead of. Tomorrow's ordinance earnings plus. We're going l. hunting where you can still find yield as treasuries rally much more money right after this welcome welcome back to pass money and lift shares missing out on today's rally the company gearing up for result after tomorrow's close to what can you expect when a report stand nathan has the options action dan so this one's a tough one you know the company went public just a few months ago. They had one quarter out of the gate. The stock traded down about eleven percent after those results but the options market is implying about a ten percent move in either direction. That's about six and a half bucks. That's a pretty hefty implied move <hes> for a stock with such little history here. <hes> you know look at that. That's the one or the charts art since the i._p._o. It's traded within a range of seventy eight on the upside right after the i._p._o. Forty eight to the downside the average price is basically been sixty one bucks or so. It's trading off. I'm a little bit below that so obviously some support here. There's the price of options implied volatility. That's why that implied. Move is so high because there obviously pretty expensive here i i would expect that to come in afterwards so if you're long this stock and you're thinking about that seventy two dollar p._o. Price where you might have bought shares on the deal the idea of selling calls against your long stock stock to add some yield above where the stock is trading makes a lot of sense because if that stock less than an implied movement and you've sold out of the money calls the option prices are going to come in that. You're gonna take in that premium so to me. There's a lot of call or option selling opportunities against long stock. You know a lot of questions here in terms of the executive departures reasons neil the <hes> the c._m._o. Left at the end of the second quarter. Why are these guys leaving after the i._p._o. That would concern me. So which is why would think if these options come to fruition probably favor brisket downside but i you know you're probably flipping a coin but if you made me play the game will love to play the game. Would you rather play from the short-sighted. Take a would you rather on the same stock along every day. Let me it's a different game. That's what we do all day game anyway. We don't have to play nothing cast be game. You could make position but you could make the argument. Sometimes you have executives. They're like just stay to the i._p._o. Gets done right. We don't want to ruffle any feathers this far along along. You know we gotta just stay till it gets done so <hes> that happens. A lot of these executives have have been there monetize their onto the next conquest so i mean to be cleared. Expect thus you the c._e._o. Unless you somebody that's really been your baby and your vision <hes> these these departure shouldn't be a reason for i would just be concerned that this is a company that i think is still working in through these types of events and frankly. I think there's some some potential for disappointment on the announcements. I don't know i have to chase it. In this kind of market environment where volatility is expected. Did you want to be in. This kind of stock. Hall was for that question. I think for listen if you if you if you're at one hundred dollars table we're talking about wind before and you really feel like gambling. I think this is stock. If you wanna play from the short side in earnings the answer is yes given us environment and given the fact that i think the market's a little richer so yes you do. Can i play yes play. I would say no in this environment anything anything trades at a ridiculous multiple right where it's all about. He doesn't any money right. No thank you for more actions action be sure to catch her full show friday five thirty p._m. Eastern time and take a look at the kramer cam jim sitting down with the f._c._c. Oh be sure to catch that interview coming up at the top of the hour for the nasdaq and time square much more fast money still ella welcome back to fast one of the ten year treasury treasury yield hovering at multiyear lows of you're itching for yields. Where should you look. We sent on to yield. Hunting is back at headquarters with more. Hey don wildman. We'll win yield's fall melissa. There's a reflex reaction by some traders and investors to pay a little more attention to those high yielding stocks that flight to safety recently has pushed yields on ten year treasury notes. It's below one point seven five percent now by contrast the dividend yield on the broader s and p five hundred stands at around two point zero four percent now which type of dividend stocks are in focus will it often has to do with the longer history of being able to sustain and grow dividends one group gets attention is the s&p five hundred dividend aristocrats kratz companies in the index that have grown their dividend for at least twenty five straight years a number of them fit the bill and have yields higher than what you'll get on longer maturity treasuries like walmart walmart. The retail giant currently has dividend yield hovering just around two percent. It's still up fifteen percent as a stock today. Coca cola is another stock in that mix as well all the dividend yield. There is over three percent at this stage. It's got a year do they. Gain of around ten percent then there are some of the beaten down names and oil and gas but believe it or not chevron. It's still up around nine percent as a stock this year. Despite the downside volatility in energy prices it also carries a four percent dividend yield and then there are the outside outsized ones around telecom names like a._t. And t. a yield of over six percent at this point with a year today gain of eighteen percent now melissa if these interest straights continue to be under pressure or find themselves languishing at historically low levels names like these could be worth investors hunt for some of that income but valuations always always a concern back over to you guys down. Thank you dumb jew. So what do you think of these names tim. I feel like you're in a couple of them. I am so let me talk about chevron a._t._t. Not on chevron. It's hard to get excited about energy names. I do think the fundamental call for for macro. Oil prices is not good. I think we're oversupplied and i think we're in a deflationary environment but chevron is probably louis. The most efficient integrated company on free cash flow <hes>. That's the reason why it's up this year. I think people recognized management's ability to do that a._t. And t. I think it's still some the parts i think people under appreciate the pricing of this company the valuation of the company in a stabilizing results environment the h._b._o. Mac's announcement. Tom referred to how difficult is going to be for them on pricing but that is a catalyst for this company and on the less. I still think that a._t. And t. is a company if you look at the various components that they piece together they're not getting credit. You know <hes>. Let's look at walmart for second here. You know obviously a lot of retailers are getting hit with some of the trade fears right here but this accompany that when the half their five hundred billion dollars in annual sales els come from groceries and really not subject to some of the issues now they have issues obviously with transportation costs and some of the other wage costs that sort of thing <hes> but you know to me i find this one pretty pretty interesting not because of that dividend yield but the stock broke out in june above one oh five that was the prior art to all time high up to one fifty and come back to that breakout level founded founded support. That's where you want to start nibbling on stock like this if you think that they're somewhat immune to some of the headwinds that exist right now for retail stocks outside of what mr dumb chew spoke of you've also plays diff- yeah karen. We're where we go for yields. Well okay. Let me just say i don't love the premise of going for yields a wag the dog i heard someone recently say bonds for capital appreciation. Now in stocks are for yield. Which is the odd environment that we're in but i mean when i look at my portfolio i i like walmart but j. p. morgan right there. They've they said that will increase their dividend next quarter so they're going to be a three and a quarter percent yield and tannin and change times earnings. I went on it. I know dan's going to give me a lot of feedback that one not that one's fine have a ball all day. Just sell the other ones. I beg thank god forbid j. P. morgan macy's nichols astor but i mean at a certain point to the point of absurdity big short interests. I think macy's might be one. I am shocked rocked by the way of life nathan walmart you could have one hundred guesses and shocking lately shocking in a good way and i'm sorta. I understand what tim sane about chevron but it's not expensive that coming off what was a pretty decent quarter given the environment and the stock has been sideways and environment where it could a lot lower so i actually think chevron c._b._s. Okay here all right up. Next final trades check on disney on the back of earnings close after our session slows down by three point six percent dizzying suspending stock repurchases because it is an investment mode and by the way we do have an exclusive interview with bob eiger the sea of disney that that is tomorrow here on c._n._b._c. time for the final trade tim so we weren't pounding. I said a._t. And t. let me reiterate that. Even though that's not a reason to chase the stock has karen talked about this the company that i think when yields go lower this outperforms chairman yes. I find myself me uncomfortable position of agreeing with dan alphabet. I do like it. I think it's position if you go home the same buying damn yeah. I'm gonna agree with two months disney. I think you buy this thing on the way down at one thirty four dunaway concerning the fire by the way tim tim sign v._w. One st jim cramer begins right now. Smart smart is open open smart. We're combining the industry expertise of ibm with the open source leadership of red hat. Let's unlock the world's potential cancel. Let's put smart to work learn more at i._b._m. Dot com slash red hat.

disney Dan nathan netflix walmart todd gordon macau hong kong melissa hulu new york city comcast chevron Tom rogers macau melissa leo Seymour karen feinerman novartis united states t.
Netflix Jumps After Earnings and GMs Self-Driving Ambitions Get a Boost

CNBC's Fast Money

45:12 min | 6 d ago

Netflix Jumps After Earnings and GMs Self-Driving Ambitions Get a Boost

"Worldwide exchange is now a podcast. Join me brian sullivan. Is we get your day started with the big money stories. You care about all the smart takes on the news from the us and around the world subscribe to the worldwide exchange podcast today. I'm melissa leeann this fast money tonight. Straighter lineup guide on me. Tim seymour karen feinerman and dan nathan tonight on fast. Gm cruising to another all-time highs one tech titan vets big on its driverless cars. How are traders are playing this record. Run straight ahead. Plus breaking down banks more earning hitting the street. Today we heard from goldman sachs and bank of america. Find out. why both stopped finish the day in the red. And you're looking live at the national mall in washington. Dc president-elect joe biden is about to make remarks that a memorial ceremony will bring you. The comments live as soon as he begins. We start off with an earnings alert on netflix. That stock is surging. Almost thirteen percent of the after hours following a strong beat on user growth. Let's get to julia. Boston with more details julia melissa. This isn't influxes. Biggest post earnings surged since july of twenty seventeen now that surges on better than expected user growth of eight and a half in the quarter. That's two and a half million more than the company has guidance no expectations for first quarter subscriber growth. Oh did fill. Sh- falls short of expectations but the company also guided to better than anticipated first-quarter. Bottom line results as it announced it expects the for full years free cash flow to be around break even saying believe they no longer have a need to raise external financing and they will explore returning cash to shareholders through stock buybacks going forward now in the quarterly letter to shareholders co ceos reed hastings. Ted sorrento's acknowledged the surge of competition. They write quote. Our strategy is simple. If we can continue to improve netflix's every day to better delight our members. We can be their first choice for streaming entertainment. This past year is a testament to this approach. Disney plus had a massive first year eighty seven million paid subscribers and we recorded the biggest year of paid membership growth in our history. We will hear more when the company hoses quarterly video call. That starts at six. Pm eastern melissa. Julia just to get a little bit more color on on how the first quarter guidance for for additions fell short. If you took the one and a half million excess in the fourth quarter and added it to the first quarter how does that stack up check speculations. It looks like it's it's directly shifting it two and a half million stronger-than-expected in this quarter and the guy and what netflix's guiding for in the first quarter is two and a half million short of expectation so may just have been a shift of that user additions from from one quarter into another. We've talked a lot in the past. Melissa about a poll forward effect. The real question is how much the pandemic is pulling forward demand that might have existed this year. And beyond. All right julia. Thank you julia. Boorstin with the latest on netflix again. That's sock is up by twelve and a half percent guy. Cash flow positive. Starting next year doesn't need external financing for day to day operations netflix's all grown up. Now pretty amazing. It sounds hauntingly. Wins the tesla's story was it's incredible. How similar that is in the bear case. Obviously for netflix has been exactly that. And you wonder now you know. Netflix might be going from subscription story to a cash flow and earnings story. Which i think is fascinating something. I don't think anybody would have thought it's interesting. Some of the ancelotti name. So you've got an upgrade today before i think. The market opened from j. P. morgan stock made an all time high today. And this really interesting to see how disney traits on the back of this and to a certain extent. How fubo trades on the back of this. All things we've talked about we talked with rich greenfield a couple of weeks. About how do you trade netflix's on the back of this a staggering corridor. First time ever more than two hundred million subs globally. It's amazing we say it. All the time reed hastings one of the most underrated in my opinion. Ceo's in the country's done an incredible job. I can think of only two misteps over the last decade but five seventy five. I think thirty eight or so was the prior all time high in september. That's your bogey. Given this quarter of the stock should be through that level but watch tomorrow see how it trades. If it doesn't break that my sense it's gonna trade five six times normal volume that's your line in the sand. I would be inclined to be taking some money off the table. But there's no denying how amazing the quarter was when i read the shareholder letter karen it. It really struck me as to how confident management must be in its ability to generate tash become neutral this year. It said that is going to pay off. The debt maturing february first with cash on hand it's going to explore share share buybacks say these things to shareholders. Unless you're pretty sure you're gonna do it. Yeah they don't say whether they're what price they would buy shares. But i agree with you right. They seem very confident on the cash flow breakeven. I mean this valuation if they buy a million shares. That's five hundred million dollars. Is that no more five sixty now. I don't know so you can't own this doc for a buyback right. It has to be for all the other fantastic things. I you know have been on this ride for several hundred points so i don't have a not celebrating here. I just think that was really an extraordinary quarter. They always seem to have guidance that I don't know. I think they're probably under promises over delivers. Sometimes they get it wrong on this subscribers but this this quarter was really amazing and if you look at the content and you look at a week or two ago when they talked about how much new content they would have. That's exciting for more exciting to me than the share buyback. Yeah we had all speculated when they had announced that they would have a new movie or tv show every single week of the year that that would mean automatically increased costs for content sort of raise their eyebrows at that in terms of the cash that would be required to keep up with that pace. Tim what do you think we i say. We in sort of a general sense of people who are in the bear camp got wrong about net flicks the proverbial we thrown right at this this longtime relative bear and certainly hadn't been bullish on the stock and i and i think you know the story that you've highlighted here. Make no mistake. This is really. I think less about content although content ultimately leads to what we're talking about which is cash flow neutral so margin and free cash flow dynamics and yeah when read on on the release Through the lines and the headlines that talked about beginning to return cash to shareholders. I said wow. This is a very very different released. So is this that inflection point for the company. You know i. i don't know ultimately again. I would go back to look at this works from net flicks. It works a lot better for disney. And that's going to be my trade on this. you know. that's my trade on this. But the fact that we're talking about free castro neutral also where the sub growth is coming from. So you rightly pointed out the wash between This quarter in the first quarter. You know whatever you have what you have you have about. Fifteen million subs But where it's coming from. And the international growth in some markets that i think culturally more challenging and so you're getting out of the middle east eastern europe. That's very impressive I don't chase the stock here. i don't want on this valuation. There's better places to do it. But that flakes clearly also has more pricing power than i thought they just raise prices. Yeah we often talk about stocks that have massive bronze mass evaluations and how that may impute value onto other stocks in similar industries. And i think. That's what tim is getting at dan in terms of disney does this mean that other streaming services should be valued war based on what we're seeing from netflix or net really setting the standard so high that appears at the other streaming services have a much harder. Track ahead to compete. Well i think it's interesting. Netflix's obviously that there were first mover their pioneer and their pure play on the streaming model right and so the knock for them for years was the free the negative free cash flow that it took to acquire this content build this massive audience and we were just saying. Listen the competitions coming all of these huge media companies with these massive catalogs. They're going to pull it back and they're going to offer their own streaming services to date. Disney's been the only one to be able to do that in a way and just because it happened during the pandemic it hasn't really been a big competitive threat. We know that. Nbc universal peacock had a pretty good launch. We know hbo. Max pretty good launch so at the end of the day if one of the main pillars was competition they got pretty lucky because it kind of all happened during the pandemic if you look at their two thousand and twenty adds a lot of them happened in the first and second quarter. Julia talked about that. Whole forward here. Even though that that sub q. Four was better than expected. I don't think it's that particularly exciting to go back to guys last point. This stock made an all time high and mid july. It made a series of it had a series of rejections below that prior high one in september one in october one in november. So here we are with the stock at five sixty five all time. High was at five seventy five. I'd be really surprised if on that guidance it breaks out here. I think you'd probably see some profit-taking i think the stock remains rangebound for probably a bit longer here. What do you think is is the message from the next netflix quarter for the other streaming services that you need to have this many subscribers in order to be free cash love neutral. I mean that's a huge hill decline for a lot of the other ones no question. Stay the course and you'll be rewarded for it but to your point i mean netflix's pobably hasn't tom rogers come on. He knows better than i but did they have six or seven year head. Start on everybody else. So i don't know if you can necessarily then take that math and say okay. In five years disney will be there. I would submit. They probably wealthy. But that's what makes markets. I think it's netflix world. I do think it's gonna drag up some of these other names again. I don't see it but you're probably seeing roca. Which had a huge day to day probably higher in the back of it and disney is probably getting dragged along as well but this is just my opinion. Netflix netflix best in class and everybody else's vying for second place and i don't think that's going to change anytime soon. And i don't necessarily think it's gonna be is symmetrical to get the caswell positive for some of these other companies all right. By the way we're just showing you roku and disney each up about two percent a piece for more netflix's let's bring in media. Mogul tom rogers. From nbc. Cable president and ceo. He's now executive chairman of engine media. Cnbc contributor and of course a fast money friend. Good to see tom. I will start you off at the same question. I asked guy and that is what is the message to the competitors of netflix's from this quarter. Well there's a long time media veteran what this earnings report says to me is that netflix will be the most valuable media company in the world. so in that sense i think i got it absolutely right now. The thing that makes it different for disney by this does not work better for disney. Despite the fact that i was the hell out of him and everything he says is that with success. There is no cost netflix's with streaming success for the legacy media companies. There is huge cost and that cost is pretty much being more. What we've known already. Is that the court. Cutting disruption is obviously wreaking havoc on the models for the network business. What we saw this quarter is that each decided it could not compete in streaming without putting all of its movies. Slate on hbo. Max i think disney is likely to follow that with a little bit about all kinds of flexibility. When you start thinking about a cost to the legacy business the unraveling of the cable satellite on will not being able to look at the actual window is driving. The huge values as they are for business Another companies what it means in terms of having to fort while all licensing off external parties international licensing as they use that content on their own platforms. That cost is meaningful. And it's not being factored in now. The numbers people look at the headline things under meaningful. They're not as meaningful as pricing power. As mentioned netflix's raising price do consistently doing so oslo. It's not as important as engagement. Net flicks has five times. The engagement in terms of our spent the disney does. It has five times the own showtime combined half and that brings with it further pricing power. You have to look at budget. And yes it's netflix's pressure on the other guys to increase. Their budget is pushed out. Cash flow break even or the others as its careful break even has accelerated and that international distribution story that it has it's getting meaningful sub are cool numbers out there versus disney which everybody got excited about one third of their numbers. Were coming from india with sup. One dollar are coups which is a very different contribution in terms of international sub value that went netflixif bidding on the board. When you put that together you've gotta ask what's the bat left of. The bear thesis remains was gonna lose friends. Their whole programming strategies. Go away at turned out to be nonsense and it was. These guys will never hit. Cash flow breakeven. Well they've shown their castle opposite of this year and they're going forward calling the slope is then it's competition is really gonna limit them. Well we've seen with the competition. They're still the number one it's guy said who's gonna elsie you're gonna have never has the position they will be almost all streaming tom. It's carolina here. You're sitting on pricing power. This seems though like an arms race in terms of content and is that part of their strategy to just sort of reagan era arms race in. Hopefully nobody will be able to compete. I know they say they like competition. But what do you think. The grand strategy is well. It's clearly to create model which they've done that. Allow them to sustain a much higher programming than anybody else on their way to twenty billion. They're on their way. That who this year one new movie a week more than one new movie week. I think that a twenty billion dollar but they will be able to introduce one new series or one new movie every day asking to have impact well beyond what anybody else can do. They can do it very efficiently because of the international program strategy now. I couldn't believe i'm sitting here this last week. Watching norwegian series paul occupied which was just fantastic. They have the ability to leverage local programming from other markets and earn it into really meaningful programming with huge audiences in this market. So that programming staticky just some way at now clearly disney recognizing that they had to be much more in they originally were and much more in than their original numbers estimated. Four billion to eight billion in programming. That's gonna matter that's gonna have. Impacted can't ignore that competition. It will drive engagement but net flicks being in a position that well excessive. Anybody else earns of kind of buzz that they've been able to drive. Program is just going to continue to the number one. And with that. I think will ultimately drive more value than any other media company. You could argue there. Undervalued disney overvalued still with the day's rise in after market price is knee seventy billion dollars market cap over time. Netflix will be the more valuable company date. It works really strong. Out of the gate is record showed. That's that's only suburb. Part of this heritage. Be sure to put occupy on the on the to watch lists tom. Thanks for the tip. Thanks the analysis. We appreciate it. Always good to see you tom. Rogers bankamerica an interesting note. Today saying twenty twenty one will be peak competition very strong competition when it comes to the streaming wars but that consumers will probably have budget for three streaming services so dan if not net flicks. Then what well you know. it's funny you should. Tom makes a great point about a media company. You know it's going to be the most valuable one. But the point is disney could do what it's done. In the last six months up almost fifty percent and with thirty percent of their business with the parks in the studio and all this stuff shutdown. I think disney going forward. Tom has been fantastic on netflix. For years and years and years and he's come on our show and he schooled a bunch of us on that. But i think from here on out. I think what you're saying is would you rather i'd rather disney'll i wasn't but allow you to do that. And he just quickly we should. We should note at this conference call or this call with analysts which is not really a conference call starts at six o'clock a lot can happen on that call so karen. I'm curious what question would you have for management because it seems like a very critical quarter this one for net flicks. I guess it's sort of furthering on your question about cash flow breakeven but that's not the end game right. So what could they really. I mean what kind of cash could they really generate to think about buying stock you kind of want to be generating cash. So how did they see that playing out all right That sock is up. Thirteen percent right now coming up jam speeding to another record. High of some big money from microsoft will tell you the news that got this stock cruising today. Plus another big week for the banks goldman sachs bank america. Both out with results today will break down the numbers tell you how to trade it and as we head out another live look at washington. Dc as we await remarked president elect joe biden is about to speak at a memorial honoring kobe victims or bringing that live as soon as he begins with us. Back right after this exchange is now a podcast. I'm brian sullivan. Join me as we hit the biggest money stories from around the world breaking down the risks and rewards of global. Trade the news. You need to know what real world actionable advice. Even a little fun and unique content won't get anywhere else like the most random but it's thing thing you'll hear all day subscribe to the worldwide exchange. Podcast today welcome active past monday. We are tracking the traits in the banks earnings role in bank american goldman sachs both out with results today and posting blow out results for the fourth quarter driven by strengthen its investment banking unit while bank of america reported mixed results record low rates wing and revenues for the quarter of both stocks finishing the day in the red. I feel like we see this all the time. The first batch of banks turn out to be okay. The whole group trades up. Then the second batch. Don't get so lucky to we've seen it and and i think we've we've spent a lot of time talking about how the yield curve changes that we've seen in the new year didn't mean anything to net interest income in the fourth quarter. I i think the issue of bank of america Is is that the fee income was was less than expected Meanwhile the credit and the capital story. There are better than expected. So what would you rather be investing in now with the company that i think is still very cheap relative to historic and and even to peers at least two. Jp morgan so I'm long bank of america there. There was no reason to be buying banks aggressively into any of these earnings. After in many cases of forty two sixty percent move really since november. And i think that's the same story here you do have net interest income Tailwind your favourite would think of the conversation. We're having last week. All people could talk about was higher interest rates. Nobody's talking about that today. Well you should be thinking about that if you own a money center bank. Yeah karen would you make these quarters I agree with him exactly on bank of america. Own bankamerica's will. I don't own goldman sachs. Who was nothing not to like about goldman sachs quarter except exactly what timpson stock. I don't know nearly fifty percent to not a lot of time and their quarters tend to be much more lumpy and so the street doesn't give the same multiple to lumpy earnings as it does to more predictable learning so that's why bank of america has higher earnings. And i think it's a little bit of a delay to get that net interest margin improvement bank of america. They had a lot of deposits that they weren't able to earn on and i think they'll be able to expand that margin in the first quarter so there was nothing not to like about a about goldman sachs for sure accepted it and run up same a little bit for bank of america as a little light. The debt capital markets wasn't great although equity capital markets was great. I own morgan stanley. They're gonna report tomorrow. That's a bit of a different business model. That's wealth management and Investment banking and. I think both of those will do well tomorrow but maybe the stocks run up too much in front of it. Yeah i mean. Talk about lumpy. Management echo minority said that twenty one. Twenty twenty one may not be as good in trading surprise surprise guy well of course you mentioned lumpy and i know you know this but that was obviously bill murray's nickname and the great movie scrooge. But you know what i'd do. I digress is. I typically do what i will say is in terms of goldman sachs. This was a hundred and ninety dollars stock on november second. So just look at the run that it's had and this is a stock goes either side of book value and now at about one point three five times book. You wonder if it's sort of extended side of the pool. I'm not saying it's getting back to book but it would make a lot of sense to go back to. I think july highs which are about to forty five to fifty nothing wrong with the quarter. Nothing wrong at all. I think it does that back. And phil but den nathan by the way set for a long time that morgan stanley best-looking financial chart out there. And we're gonna find out tomorrow. If he's right he's been right my sense he will continue to be right. Yeah you sound like morgan stanley. Going into the quarter. I assume dan well you know what they say about. A blind squirrel mel. That was the one. Listen i think for the very reason that karen Just mentioned the diversification in their streams. And i do think that you're going to see like you mentioned about the lumpy trading. I think you're gonna see really really difficult. Compare comparisons on investment banking too. So yeah. i'd stick with morgan coming out. President-elect joe biden is about to make remarks that a covert memorial ceremony in washington dc. We'll take you there live after this quick break. Welcome to pass a. You're looking live at the national mall in washington. Dc president-elect joe biden is about to speak at a memorial honoring the more than four hundred thousand americans who have died from corona virus. We'll bring you the remarks. As soon as they begin in the meantime we wanna talk about his cabinet. The senate finance committee holding a confirmation hearing today for biden's treasury secretary pick janet yellen yellen urging lawmakers to support a biden's one point nine trillion dollar covert relief. Plan saying it is critically important to act now and not only ask now but act big because why not. Interest rates are at historic lows. The seems to make a lot of sense. Dan nathan but how about the debt. That was the big question. That was a big push back. I mean they didn't care about the debt in the last few years. I don't know why they would care now. I think if Mnuchin was still the treasury secretary yellen predecessor. I think he was on board for something that looked like two trillion for a lot of the same reasons. So i think you make the point now with interest rates here with interest rates net. Really going up anytime soon. And largely because of the fact they've tacked on four or five trillion dollars in debt in just the last few years. This is the time to do it. I agree go big so this could mean good things for the economy in terms of stimulus directly to consumers but canada's give you more hope for things like infrastructure definitely i think infrastructure you put people to work and we really need infrastructure. Not that we don't need some of these other things. But yeah i'm more optimistic. I think those stocks are trading with that kind of optimism. One thing janet yellen did sort of float out there not so overtly but was a fifty year bond which we haven't seen but i mean if you're gonna go big you might as well go long term you know increase that duration and go big. I i get what they're saying. I don't know. I'm not fully monetary Theorist but i think that's what they're going to do out of debt. I believe that treasury secretary steven mnuchin had explored at least the idea of a much longer dated treasury. Seems like you could do that. It seems like you could sell recovery bonds or something of that sort defined whatever project you wanted to find guy no doubt about it. I think gary cohn talked about a hundred year mind when he was part of the administration so i think a lot of people have brought it up and makes a lot of sense in this interest rate environment but it all comes back to when you know dan talked about. When did these debts one of these deficits when this all this matter and apparently it doesn't. But i will say despite janet yellen talking up or trying to talk up the us style everything we just talked about for the last minute and a half two minutes leads to a lower dollar and twenty twenty one. And although i understand people saying that's a good thing for multinationals at a certain point it's a bad thing for everybody and i'm on my concern is when gonna get that point precarious very quickly on top of which interest rates going higher again as a bullshit until it's not so just be careful about both. Those things happening in unison over the next couple of months. It's interesting that you thought that yawns comments talked up the dollar i. I felt like. I got the message. Let the market set the dollar. The dollar trade as a dollar trades. Tim but maybe that's the job of a treasury secretary. I think tim is frozen tips frozen. Yeah i was wondering why he was splaine ignoring me. A guy go back. Go back to you it happens. Sometimes i might say something out of turner know but you. You took that away from his comments on the dollar. No i should have specified. I was talking about comments. She made i think a week or so earlier when she talked about. You know the want for a strong dollar policy and those things. Maybe these comments were sort of walking that back but you know it's interesting you talk about. Historically administrations are all about a stronger. Us dollar policy. Which might be true publicly. I think privately. They have a much different view this now by the way. This posture is sort of one. Eighty from the trump administration which is vocal in their want for week dollars. It's very interesting. What's going on in terms of though a weaker dollar. Be careful what you wish for in terms of stock traders investors out there if the us dollar fee right below eighty nine. Sorry we want to go straight. A president elect joe biden command of my heart. Any angels in heaven. All nurses we know from our family experience which you do the courage the pain you absorb for others. thank you. Thank you your eminence. Cardinal gregory yulon to adams to heal we must remember. It's hard sometimes to remember. But that's how we heal. It's important to do that as a nation. That's why we're here today. Between sundown and dusk but a shy. The lights the dark this along the sinker pool reflection. Remember all we lost. I heard there were a secret. Coal that david play then please. The law but huge. Don't really care for music. Do it goes like this before the thin the minor fall in the major league. The baffled keying composing how Ooh ooh i know that there is a god and all i ever learned from. Anna is how shoot at someone who drew you. It's not a cry here now. it's not so who's seen eight. It's a cold. And your ooh lou who unity on the eve of president. Elect joe biden's inauguration. Tomorrow as we saw the lights go up on the national mall. We also saw lights go on across the country and cities and towns at monuments iconic buildings like the empire state building the space needle in seattle to honor the four hundred thousand american. Lives lost to the coronavirus. Bast money back right after this. Welcome back to fast money general motors cruising to a new all-time high today the stock ending nearly ten percent is one tech. Titan makes a big investment in its driverless car unit phillips got. The details fell here. Melissa fourth best day ever for general motors and we can't emphasize this enough. This stock and i know people say look. It's not really it's all time high. It's just came out of bankruptcy. But yes this is. The highest came out of bankruptcy the government mandated bankruptcy happening back in two thousand nine. Gm and microsoft partnering on autonomous vehicles in both gm and microsoft combining for an investment in cruise. Which is the subsidiary which is developing autonomous vehicles there in there along with honda other institutional investors two billion a little over that for the fundraising round the valuation for cruise is now thirty billion dollars and microsoft will be working with crews bringing it software cloud computing technology for autonomous vehicles which is crucial as they developed this autonomous vehicle network. Self-driving space what we're doing a cruise this is going to be the largest deployment of mission critical eye out into the real world. So it's a very natural partnership to have microsoft and crews come together giving those complementary capabilities and opportunities. We're still a ways out from and i'm thinking maybe a couple of years before we actually see the public in these crews autonomous vehicles. Though they are being tested out in real world traffic in san francisco. This chart is something that people will sit there and look at it and say oh come on. You can't be serious one month. And i know it's just one month but in the last month what's the best performing auto stock general motors better than tesla better than ford. Sta lantis better than Toyota none of them have done a better month than than gm in the last month and one last thing as long as we're talking about autonomous vehicle companies and valuations the ones that people really focus on we're talking about waymo crews and argo. These are the latest either publicly confirmed valuations from the companies in the case of crews and way or one of the latest estimates in the case of waymo though i should point out many people believe way mos valuation is likely much higher than that though. The company waymo itself is not giving evaluation at this point. Melissa fell thank you philip bo. We've been talking about this rerating of general motors for. I feel like months at this point. Karen but it's interesting to think about the cruise unit on having this evaluation which may have been undervalued before as reflected in in the stock price pop today session. But also the ev part of it. Because this happens on a day where reuven got funding which puts it at evaluation about twenty eight billion dollars. So it's got these two big important areas of the market that are potentially undervalued in the marketplace really undervalued. And i think you know. There's a lot of confusion about the debt. But i think the total enterprise value is somewhere around sixty five billion. And here's the thing about cruise a year. I think it was almost two years ago. That dan who is the head of crews was incented to either ipo or spin it off and so if we were to see that i think it would unlock a lot of value. Now this is this cruise is not there Ev business. But i don't think they get enough value for crews but they do get all of the losses their share of losses that works its way through the income statement. So they're getting penalized there. But i don't think they're getting the benefit of crews and i think that You know it's hard for people to say. Oh i can't buy it here because look where it was. You know two three months ago in never should have been where it was two or three months ago. So i'm long. I always say if you go home long. It's if you bought it at this price. I'm still long so you know if i owned none. I probably would start buying at this price. Even though it's run up a lot would you want ten. Gm to spin out crews. no no i. I don't think they need to in certainly part of I think what's going on. Here are the synergies of gm as technology company and as an oem in all their capabilities across the board but First of all i. I've been adding to this position over the last month. And i've been long. Gm for for four years so Couple of dead years in a couple of exciting. You know months on top of decent year but where the company was rerating in my view based upon their ability to run profitably and get rid of unprofitable businesses. What's interesting to me. Is that the same analysts that are are now really drooling over this business and bright drop. Which is this business. Which is last mile delivery for people like fedex and is going to have a major major impact. I think In in their commercial use in the valuation of the company I the analyst that are now paying attention to this the same ones that were upgrading. Tesla a couple years ago on the the dynamics associated with autonomous. Any and we haven't talked about the altium battery and and and so the hydrogen fuel cell. So i like. I like the whole thing and and i like i like the stock here If anything i think it's going significantly higher guy. We usually play this game called. would you rather so. I'll pose that question to you. But one of my favorites. I now along with rapper. Scrap it anyway. Gm or ford four. Which by the way has a stake in ribian. That's a great play. That would you rather than a while. i'll i'll i'll stay gm. And i'm going to give kudos again to tim and karen who've been steadfast in this one of the things we've said now for a while. Is that if you just give for example. Just give a ten multiple on six dollars. Gm's gonna earn it. It's a sixty dollar stock and a twelve multiple which is half of where the broader market is trading. You didn't do the math. That's a seventy two dollars stock right. So i mean there's upside here for sure and you mentioned the spinoffs quickly spin off. Didn't go particularly well. And i would imagine that ebay is not thrilled with pay pal. And you can say the same thing with mcdonald's in tripoli so i think they should hold on to these assets not spin them off. That's just one person's tv shows the spin offs never as good as the original. Where do you stand on gm. Well joe joanie loves chachi thinking of that one laverne with guy i think is the one here. It just broke. This long-term downtrend it's trading about ten bucks here. I think they are going to have two of the hottest. Ev cars the mustang mach e crossover suv and this new line of broncos with one of them the sport being an. I think these are going to be massive massive hits for four to me. You want rerating you talk about riven investment. You talk about their push into it. I think these are going to be really hot. Cars for ford coming up pumping the brakes on peleton. The big call center sucks getting today. Plus buckle up we'll tell you about the big trade. We spotted today. The options markaz united gets ready to report the details with fast money return. Welcome back to fast monday. Check out the peleton stockpiling. Nearly six percent on downgrade a ubs analyst saying the risk reward is skewed to the downside from current levels when measuring valuation against implied growth. It's worth noting in the in the same call. Ubs raise price are gonna talk to one hundred and twenty four share About twenty six bucks lower from where it is right now. Guy that's going to be the argument valuation here knowing that. Meyer the call and i think henry blodget. I know we're all familiar with. I think henry said something t- effect. I wish he made some of those calls back in ninety nine so i admire. Ubs for getting ahead of this into earnings. I think in early february. Maybe they'll prove to be right but better to do it. Ahead of earnings and behind it valuations stretched. We've talked about it for a while but we've also talked about the fact that it's not just a bicycle and they have so many different verticals they can get themselves into one. Twenty four up from one fifteen logical place for the stock that trade. So i like the call i will tell you if it gets the one twenty four. I think you buy it with both ends again. If you're a believer there's pull forward because of the pandemic. This'll be the prime example. I would think karen do you. Yeah i think so. I mean it. They couldn't have asked for a better setup. You know there was an article. I think This weekend about some growing pains and the delivery problems that they've been having and so that's what happens when you grow this fast. Could for them for for downgrading it. I mean down. Seven dollars is really. That's i think hung in there really well considering this the stock is just extraordinarily in my view extraordinarily high value. Maybe it's worth it. But i i can't get involved with this valuation. Not too many cells on wall street. That's sure coming up at bracing. For turbulent one traders protecting against a rough ride and shares a united when reports tomorrow after the bell bringing the trade. You cut me off the top of the hour. Jim is sitting down with the ceo of logitech. Connect with that exclusive interview on mad money six pm eastern time. Don't go anywhere much more fast right after this. Welcome back to fast money. It is a sign of the times for the airlines airfare. Prices plunged to the lowest level on record that is according to inflation adjusted data release from transportation department ticket prices down thirty percent year over year and that is putting pressure on airlines ahead of earnings. That's free coast some interesting options activity in one name reporting tomorrow. Mike see yes. We were taking a look at u. a. l. which is going to be reporting two times as many calls trading is put and right now the market is implying a move of about five percent higher or lower by the end of the week. That's in line with the four point. Four percent or so that the stock averaged over the last eight quarters but one of the trades that stuck out to me was actually a big trade in the feb thirty eight puts about two thousand of those traded for seventy five cents a buyer of those puts his obviously betting that the stock will trade below that level or possibly hedging against the risk that it might and that makes a lot of sense when you consider where the stock was after the last reported quarter in late october at traded down to about thirty two and a half ish. It's up thirty six percent since then. If you owned the stock over that timeframe now might be an interesting time to think about hedging. I tim what do you think the united i think if you look at the majors united is is the one which has maybe the most operational leverage with a decent balance sheet. And if you look at the chart on this thing much as delta has They seem to be clinging and holding the fifty day average. And you you have an upward move from your after consolidating for the last couple of weeks I think the valuations are getting to a place where they're challenging based upon again. Some percentage of normalize earnings right now. The stocks are trading about eighty five percent of normalize earnings. Especially those that have had some dilutive equity issuance but I think the stocks can move higher. And i think they will continue to. It is amazing to see that stat. Karen in for q three down thirty percent year on year. The airline ticket prices. I mean it gives you a sense of how much the airlines have to climb out of that hole in terms of pricing right and then on the balance sheet how much debt they have to climate out of as well but i think i did see something about them being hopeful about maybe some relief from the biden administration is interesting. We talked about that a lot in to who should provide relief. I always thought it should be the equity or the bondholders Not necessarily the government when so many other industries are also in distress. All right my thank you. Mike have more options action. Be sure to tune into the full show. That's friday five thirty. Pm eastern time next. You got your final trades time for the final trailers go around the horn. Tim seymour ten cent. Music is the spotify china and other big acquisition continues to be the way to play online music in asia. Karen chinamen yes. We talked about during the debates. I like morgan stanley. We'll see how their wealth management business remember also e-trade the closed on that early in the fourth quarter. That's probably been good and the banking business so long warning skin. Tanny yeah mel. I think you call this a double upgrade when an analyst goes from a cell skipped the whole and they go to the by jp. Morgan did that. American express today breaking out of a two month consolidation. I like american express traded up to this guy a dummy. What heinous top is dan. Nathan wearing could you just clarify for us quickly check. I don't know i. I don't even know it's very unlikely i'm sure it's made up. Pam guy final trade france-soir coming but sob. An earnings on. Friday ain't so watching past nine starts right now. Water exchange is now a podcast. Brian sullivan join me. As we hit the biggest money stories from around the world breaking down the risks and rewards of global. Trade the news. You need to know. What real world actionable advice and even a little fun and unique content. You won't get anywhere else like the most random but interesting thing you'll hear all day subscribe to the worldwide exchange podcast today.

netflix disney bank of america elect joe biden goldman sachs reed hastings julia brian sullivan tom rogers Tim seymour melissa leeann karen feinerman dan nathan julia melissa Ted sorrento Boorstin P. morgan
Fast Money 11/13/19

CNBC's Fast Money

45:30 min | 1 year ago

Fast Money 11/13/19

"Problems it's human nature to hate problems. But why is that after all problems inspire us to mend things. Ben Things make things things better. That's why so many people work with IBM on everything from city. Traffic to ocean plastic new schools to new energy flight delays delays to food safety smart loves problems. Ibm Let's put smart to work visit. IBM DOT COM slash smart to learn more live on the Nasdaq market. Site overlooking New York. City's Times Square. This is fast money. I'm Melissa League are traders on the desktop Pete and Jerry and see Grasso Karen Feinerman Guidoni tonight on fast just pull. It Nike Yanks. His products from Amazon is a double down on direct to consumer how this could shake up the retail industry plus cashing Ashington Fintech. He'd make some fast pitch for American Express. Will the rest of the desk by in and check out this mystery transport sock posting its worst and more in a month what it says about the health of the industry we start off with a touch of magic. Here's the Disney soaring more than seven percent today after the company announced Avenue Streaming Service or past ten million sign ups in just one day that news adding more than eighteen billion dollars market cap to the entertainment giant today alone and get this since Disney announced pricing Disney plus back in April it's gained more than fifty billion dollars in so doing the magical math fifty eight billion dollars. Market Orca calf ten million subscribers then makes each Disney plus user worth about six thousand dollars. So is this is d magic to beach. Okay that's that's one way to do the math. I think the market is saying it's going to be far more than ten million a certain point so that's six thousand. I guess they're hope is is at some point. It's sixty dollars if you do that math. That's probably their ultimate hope with that said today. The traded about six times normal volume made an all time high. It's up up fifty percent ish. Since that day they announced legalized gambling when the stock was meandering around ninety. Nine dollars to me. That was the first lifeline. This is the second one again it comes down to this. Can you wrap your head around evaluation. I understand candidates spoke about it last night. There spending money to make money and get it. How long does that take? And how long you willing to wait eight. And how long's she to stick around after fifty percent move over the last six or seven months. I saved probably not a bad time to take profits in the name. We did this magical not APP. Because the exercise at this point for investors. Who who've seen this ride up is how much is priced in for business? Would we don't know it's GonNa pay off yet. It's it's a money in hopes that in the future it will pay off. It's a money home. But they've got its money whole funded by someone with a lot of content content and a ton of money shirt right so if anyone is going to be able to compete it will be Disney so I think you know he said at the top of the show about how much has already been priced but in a lot this move today I mean it was trading one thirty seven before they announced this number. Eleven dollars in Disney is an extraordinary Mary. Move right so it would be hard to say. Oh now's the moment you've gotta get in. I feel like this really is by the rumor. Sell the news you know. We've got a little lucky because there was that glitch and people thought Oh the launch didn't go smoothly. That's a complete sideshow non event here. Wow that's a lot of good stuff I priced in. I mean I think good for them for for being really aggressive getting this out there. They didn't extraordinary job with the launch. But that's a business. It's tough for a barometer. When you feel like it's overpriced that you have to? Are you going to get a bigger multiple and Disney for this. Do you ever get your hair around. Maybe you need a little a little more. Why do you need a little more a little more there in the game? They don't have to win the game. You just have to be in the game. They're entering their streaming. Is there for them now. Okay streaming for them. The costs are all I mean. Look I believe that it's going to work but also by your theory then you would pay any price. No not any place tirol than the existing multi put on maybe never for ninety million by fiscal twenty twenty four which was there that has to be calculated. Mark will tell you what it is and technically it has to hold that one thirty mark but way above that right now. I wouldn't be a buyer today. What I'm saying today? Would you be the by. I wouldn't be a buyer because I don't believe the multiple it would be a buyer because the booth has been so big you get a little reversion but I think it goes much higher than where it is our partner partner by the way I should feel secure. I'm a that's what you're saying right Karen the foam at this hour moving moving single day and and this is a new. I know what you're saying. The streaming and the other thing is they do have content to your point Karen. I mean this is something where they're not having to to pay for all of this content like everybody else yes. They're going to have their original content but think of the content already got with marvel and Pixar and all the rest of it and then the bundle package with Hulu and all that. There's a lot of reasons to be excited. And I understand the excitement and I think it's a foam odille where these guys all were jumping in today and that's one of those things that we see happen all the time. They'll we're suddenly the stocks up eleven dollars on this really. I mean this was. This was a known. This was something that we all had some perception of how Joe now most of these many of these is I would say the majority of these subscribers ten million are free old variety to absolutely play out of time right. Where do they still do? They stay when they have to pay. That's the real number right of course but I mean I think embedded in this whole discussion also is is if Netflix valued at at X.. Should Disney pick up some of that evaluation of Netflix. Because of the road that it's on and so therefore when you say the valuations seem stretch right now. Are we not allowing it to expand Dan because it should expand because it's in the streaming business. I think that's fair. McCarron got a view on this. This is a Netflix. Seven year head start and apparently at Lisa you look at it pretty sticky user base. Now again I don't know how sticky it's going to be in the years to come but so now it's been pretty good and you still have that international growth so I think Disney would love to be a Netflix at some point but the runway to get there is. It's not next week. It's probably more like five seven years well so in terms of that valuation it. It doesn't happen overnight so at twenty five times which is where it's training now. That's historically extraordinarily expensive understanding that they have this new guy. It's got to happen but also you know what else has to happen apple. Hold on hold back. Why do you say it's got to happen? Why I understand that you will mystic multiple on? I'm not saying it has to get a netflix multiple. But it has to get a larger multiple than Disney's core business has been given all the history of Disney trading. It has to get a higher multiple then that no one would argue that right. Well okay so so the the projections by Disney's sixty to ninety million subscribers by fiscal twenty twenty four which is approximately four years from now. How many Netflix subscribers are there in United States right now sixty million subscribers right so in in that many years should dizzy have the Netflix valuation? Well I I don't know the short answer but I think it's the strangest this is is changing right so I think that I think they could end up with with more than that but I think it's also an issue of cost as well. It's not just how many subscribers right it's what what is your house and also what other costs Disney Disney owns. ABC TV. That's you know that's not where you want to be right now on the flip side though dizzy busy doesn't need to get a Netflix. Multiple next multiple might need to come down and a lot of yes pure play so net flicks has one way of earning income come. Disney has multiple ways of earning income. So I just I'm not saying I'm not saying a doubling of the multiple there's gotta be some increase and if you say there's not there's is not an increase in multiple deserve. I think that you're not being honest. I can see that there should be add a downgrade of multiple in a in a sock like Netflix. Hundred percent. Okay so it's it's GonNa meet in the middle some yes all right. Let's get some reaction to these Disney plus numbers joining us now. Is Tom Rogers Executive Chairman of win view former tvos CEO former NBC NBC cable president. He's a fast money friend. You name it he is. It is also say that all the time I was I'm GONNA say Hello. Hi Now. I'm also a Disney subscribers ten million with verizon subscribers so I got it for free and I took it do you do you look at that ten million and think. Oh yeah that ten ten dollar pop in the stock was justified. You you gotta give them their due. I mean that was a hell of a launch and that's a very big number. I think that they put a lot of pieces together here to get I to this. They did Fox they they bought Hulu. They took control from comcast. They put together a bundle. They did the verizon deal and then they launched with ten million but we gotta remember Disney. Plus is one piece of this game and they are losing satellite and cable subs that have a very every big purse up number attached to them at fifteen sixteen dollars per subscriber. That court cutting really begins to hurt hurt. And you don't make it up with six ninety. Nine Disney subs forget about free or discounted Disney plus subs and then the question is. How much is the bundle where you don't make it up with thirteen? Eighteen dollar bundle subs either and the question really is. How fast does that legacy business going to go down? Now you got Disney is is better position than any other traditional media company to get this right and the momentum is now with them and I think that will continue to enjoy that momentum until something happens happens on the legacy side of the business right now. The legacy numbers are disguised because you have advertising continuing to go up somewhat with pricing and you have have long-term affiliate agreements with cable and satellite. which the sky's the cord cutting going on there but at some point we're going to have a daylight this going the other way when the legacy issues begin to show themselves and that disintegration of the bundle could happen faster than what people are now looking at the growth growth rate of the new business? They've established themselves. They're they're they deserve credit for what they've done but don't take your eye off the ball here. It's the question of the rate of decline the legacy business versus how fast this new stuff grows. Even the Disney has a deep library of content. And the money to spend on new content tint do you think a pure play streaming play is actually in a better position. Because it doesn't deal with drag from this atrophying legacy business well not not aw pure play streaming plays but if Netflix is what we're talking about when I say that makes no doubt better positioned because it has a huge head start. It has has a fifteen billion dollar programming budget over half of which is original programming compared to about a two billion original programming Disney Budget Disney. I think is going to have to really invest much more significantly in Hulu with original programming than what they've shown yet particularly for the international uh-huh piece of that business. Remember who is is losing gonNA lose the comcast. NBC Content Fox is not really producing original content of this elk anymore and so they did a very smart thing saying that f x programming was going to be highly associated with who but they have a lot more to go particularly in international budget there if they're going to begin to get into the net flicks game now when it comes to original programming the mandatory was there big release in terms of the launch. And you gotta gotTa give him do there too. That got great reviews. Both user and media critic reviews. You want your first original foray to get that kind of thing because because in the end of the day library products important but I don't think it defines what really is going to keep these things from churning which is more good original programming so the bottom line the streaming launch was successful. But you're still a skeptic on the overall business model that Dizzy Scott more positive on it for Disney than any other traditional media company. I need but very aware that the traditional side of the business is in for steep decline. And I think it's an unknown which which happens at a more rapid rate Tom. It's great great to see you. Thank you so much for coming by grabbing me on Rogers does this. Change your mind No I'm not going to invite Tom back into this conversation I know is that there's no way he could be gone. I think that we've had those days where we were we've seen Disney selloff because of ESPN because of their core core business. I think now this is Disney's way of fighting with ESPN plus and with streaming. So we've already seen the negative now. It's about changing a little bit the perception to be more positive and I think that's the stage we're in now for a while amid the stock is set up to push towards its all time highest. That's effectively what happened in four five hours today. We're here on six times normal volume now to buy it here in my opinion. You're betting that the market's GonNa continue to go higher and there's going to be this new flood of capital into the name. I think that's a big bet to make a more inclined to say at this level to take profits and look for that pullback to one thirty which we were just at yesterday as right Karen Petri Today Nice yes. There's a calendar January November one fifty call counter just the November's was just seemed like kind of a bit of a frenzy Azizi and two leg into that calendar. So it's it's you know I have some exposure there but it just seemed like wow people are getting super excited right Maybe a little too much and to that point. I think when Tom Brings up a great point which is the traditional side and the money. They'll be losing from that and replacing with this. But it's not really ten million. I I mean that number is going to be a different number when that actually turns into paying sub. So that's the difference. Plus they're losing that money and it might not happen at the same speed. He doesn't know which one will go faster. But it's still there and we all know it the traditional side that's going to slowly crumble. And then also how well can they do on this site the new site streaming digital dimes and dollars. Still have the subway tokens and none of the garden. State Parkway was stuff that I hear over the tokens though but to that point you're switching legacy more money for the drying subscribers which are less good for them for recognizing a you know a structural tectonic plate move. We got to address it and they did coming out. Fetch Powell testifying on the hill today. We'll tell you what he had to say. And and what it means for the markets plus Nike's picks Amazon to the Kerr Walmart gets ready to report. We've got a full retail roundup. Coming your way. We're live from Times Square in New York City. Much fast baffoni right after this problems. It's human nature to hate problems. But why is that after all problems inspire us to mend things. Bend things make things better. That's why so many people work with IBM on everything thing from city. Traffic to ocean plastic new schools to new energy flight delays to food safety smart loves problems IBM. Let's put smart to work visit. IBM DOT COM slash smart to learn more. Welcome back to fast money and other historic day for stocks Dow hitting a new all-time intra-day high while the S. and P.. Five hundred solids twentieth closing record of the year. The record rally coming Fed chief Jerome Powell to lawmakers. He's optimistic about the economy and that for now rates are on hold. I think the new normal now is lower interest rates lower inflation probably lower growth. And you're seeing that all over the world not just in the United States you sing too much greater extent in many parts of the world. We're seeing it here. Let's bring in Mark Mark Abana be of a Merrill Lynch's head of US Rate Strategy. He just toned down his market forecast for the year mark. Great to see you. You're at two percent correct. The Year Year End Twenty one thousand nine hundred ten year yield on Powell's speech. It almost sounded like he was worried about deflation coming in from around the world. And I'm wondering how big of a concern that is and how you factor that we're hearing from this fed is that they are hoping that they can keep rates on. Hold hold for now. But they're still worried and it really struck me today in Powell's comments. He talked a little bit about how he was worried about. Downside risks to the outlook in particular emanating from abroad. I think that even though the Fed is telling us that low rates of the new normal and that they hope to remain on hold that they're still worried that they need to lower them again in the future. They're hoping that that's not the a case that they're worried about low inflation. They're worried about trade uncertainties. They're worried about global data and in particular data coming out of China which it sounds like today chair Powell's indicating that he doesn't really I trust and so in that context. You're still going to have a fed. It's very cautious very patient and is going to be in no hurry whatsoever to raise interest rates anytime soon. How quickly really do think the Fed would react? If we found out that the December fifteen tariffs we're going to go into effect. I mean if they're that worried right now about the potential impacts if we see this hit because it doesn't seem like the two sides can agree on whether or not there will be any tariff rollbacks at this point do you think that they'll act right away so I don't think that we're going to see them lower rates in December four. Yeah I mean. I don't think any indication that they would be doing that or kind. A preemptive move is likely but I also don't think that at the next fed meeting that would be enough to tip them into lowering rates. What they need to see is that this has a sustained impact act on the economy that there would be a hit the confidence to employment potentially and they would need to see that risks to low inflation increase before they would respond? The Fed really really hopes that they can stay on hold but in all likelihood if they're going to lower rates again. It's going to be because they're very worried about a recession and they may be worried that they need to cut rates all the way to zero. We don't think that that's likely in the near term. And certainly we've seen data stabilize. You've seen central banks around the world. Something a little bit more neutral less dovish. We've also seen trade tensions despite the headline Ping Pong. We see every day. They've ratcheted back to some extent. And that's allowed the data to stabilize it and assuming that that is what we see between now and the end of with the year and into the early part of next year. The Fed won't need to do much. But if the data deteriorates and we really see that it seems like recession risks arising they're probably not gonNA wait too along to respond equity volatility has thirteen handle on it. You know we don't talk about it that much because thirteen is not interesting treasury yields ten year yields has gone from three and a record over the course of the year two one forty seven back to one ninety one fifty one ninety bond volatility is probably a historic levels. And it's and magnitude attitude. It's much bigger than equities is that in and of itself concerning. Yeah it is concerning and I think it reflects a market. That is having a really hard time. Discerning what the Economic Outlook look is because it's largely clouded by uncertainty and a particular trade uncertainty. And that's why you see the market. That's Kinda chases headlines up and down all over to go from three twenty five and two one fiftyish level you did see a meaningful deceleration of activity you saw the pace of payroll growth slow. You saw the Fed commit to lowering interest rates and follow through on that and then I brought rates lower and it's going to keep rates low for quite a bit of time but a lot of the day to day gyrations in the bond market. It's really driven by a lot of the headline line news that we see and it's a market that's struggling to determine. Is this economy. Going to recover and really stabilize and grow faster. The administration hopes or is uncertainty going going to push the economy more towards recession. And I think that's why we see all this volatility mark thank you for coming by having Merrill Lynch Stabilization Stabilization rates. So that's a good thing for equities at least for us is a good thing. It's hard to fight the Fed that old saying right because I it's interesting. What are they going to do with the balance sheet? All of this is going to be easing. Even if they're not cutting rates anymore the interest rate forecast for the market was that thirty percent for a cut in December now down seven percent so the markets okay with where rates are and by the way Powell just got on board lower interest rates lower growth. Lower inflation you could have said the same thing in December. Could you not of two thousand in eighteen. Yes you could so playing with yourself okay. It's a game. It's the markets in my opinion went higher once he got with the program. And what's he started cutting rates at this point. He's on board and if he's not cutting rates he's going to do something that is it's easy with the balance sheet if it's still easy markets for the equity market. You can read about today's Becher testimony on our website. CNBC DOT com. We've got much more year ahead on fast. Coming up. Nike doesn't need Amazon. But will the athletic apparel makers move because others to follow suit and the chip sector is on a tear this year will end videos earnings. Add to those games what options markets are expecting from the semi name. All that seven more when I bunny returns cantor from Cox has all your favorites all in one place and with the contour remote. You can use your voice to fund them on live TV on demand and streaming APPs like netflix prime video and more see Cox dot com for details tails. Welcome back to fast. Money Nike Giving Amazon the boot today announcing it will no longer sell its products through the ECOMMERCE giant. This is all part of Nikes. Focus undirected consumer shares Nike lagging the market this year. But still up around twenty two percent. So we'll Nike's big bet on direct to consumer pay off and we had been wondering during this is direct to consumer has been very very strong and it's last year earnings reports. Yeah it was interesting to me. I mean good for Nike. If you feel like you have a brand. Is that strong like they do that. You can do this and you know I. I'm long footlocker. I think it's a somewhat of a positive for footlocker. The fewer outlets of you know where he can get some gasoline. The the better however it does show Nike's focused on direct to consumer. which is the flu? You know that's not the best thing for footlocker right at this point. You know they still. We need each other a lot but good for them. I wonder you know sort of begs the question where we start to see other brands that feel like they can do this. And what does that mean for Amazon. Can you think of the brand that could do it at this point. Direct to consumer without a middleman ZAPPA's is really powerful I don't know should have an answer through for that but yeah I mean we see it all the time in terms of people pulling brands pulling out of macy's I mean you see it in in other ways. Not maybe necessarily Amazon does it. So so let's talk about what it means to Amazon. Though I mean it's obviously it's not a good thing necessarily. There's still people that need Amazon. But you look at it. The stock has traded. Oh caissons earnings. But now it's doing to turn again. The day they reported the stock was trading sixteen fifty. Everybody hated it on the show that we said before you go running out of the name this the fifty percent retracement of December low in that recent high at twenty twenty. If you're selling it here you're trading it wrong. That turned out to be right. But I gotTa tell you something on a market that Only goes higher the last week or so. It's not been particularly strong for Amazon. So maybe in a weird way this is that opening salvo. That has many chapters somebody else jump in and start the competition levels. That are not necessarily Amazon direct but it's themselves the direct the thing it's really is become something really big overtime. I mean for individual companies. And obviously when you look at somebody like Nike. That's the growth. These guys have done. Your arms problem wasn't it a lot on on TJ. Hey Max holiday needs to go and get a thirty percent. It was all there was all there and that's what was on the shelf so yeah I totally agree the only thing I look at Nike Right now. That reaction today was really positive but look at that care and I know this is the name that we you know we all talk about on the despot talk about stretched. I mean we're looking at Disney saying it's a little stretched. I'd say Nike feels a little stretch starbucks. There are certain names out there that people just keep trying to pile into but is it a little bit late to be found in the way for the pullback to Amazon Guy I agree with you this this is going in the wrong direction. I would not be bulging Amazon right now retail. We could see the true test of the consumer when one of the world's largest retailers reports tomorrow we're talking about Walmart Albuquerque's before the bell shares are roughly twenty nine percent this year sitting a stone's throw away from an all time high so we'll Walmart tell us the true story of the health of the consumer Brosseau so Walmart was the only one that people thought could actually compete aggressively against Amazon. And they've been doing everything right. So is this a true true test of the consumer or is it a true test of how well Walmart has done to compete against Amazon. I think it's the latter versus the former. But I still think you're okay sticking with a Walmart or sticking with a target to Pete's point about maybe getting into late valuation valuation. I think is a little bit stretch to get to Pete's point that he just talked about right. I mean they have been doing everything right. That last quarter was fantastic. I mean those same store sales growth. That was really strong. The grocery business doing really well so all that I haven't been said I said I liked target which I also think will be a survivor and competing against a Amazon but the valuation isn't nearly stretch. In fact I think valuations to cheat sheet a power pitcher. It was long. Hold for me and I'll Katiba hold because even with the run that it's made mel extraordinary run to the upside right. It's up sixty plus less percent. I think on the year this thing still trading at seventeen times remember earlier in the year is trading at about twelve or thirteen times. I'm looking at Walmart right now. At a twenty six p. e. or something in that range. They spent twenty billion dollars on ECOMMERCE which they needed to do they needed to compete. But they're spending all that money. How about brand cornell guys at target spent five hundred million for Shit I mean imagine imagine what that value is now underneath one one thing we? We would be remiss even though you roll your eyes me. We'd BE REMISS OFFER COSCO COSCO up almost fifty percent talk about a name that just continues to defy all laws of. I realize that you more often than not the guy that's usually nice. I will tell you that I know. For a fact that one Carter Braxton in worth who appeared on options action at five thirty one of my favorite most Thursday yeah. Today's Thursday men. My whole week screwed up. Can you just go beyond got it. He mentioned hostile. If you go back to the spring when the market was floundering Kaz holding in there I'm telling CBW good for him and quickly uh-huh if Walmart deserves a twenty four p which I think is a little ridiculous targets. Shouldn't be at sixteen and a half targets shouldn't be twenty four which probably closer to nine team team. You can do the math on the back of that. Coming up. Peleton peddling higher today. We'll tell you what had the stock soaring in the last minutes of trading plus P stepping up to the plate to cash in on one stock. Akhil tell us the name and why he sees it. Hang up much more fast money right after this. Welcome back to fast one. Either fintech space has been on a tear this year impeded pitas cashing in on one name in particular is over at the plaza with his best. Pitch Pete's taken away. Yeah we're throwing out American Express and I liked this name. I own this name. And here's why when when you look at the C. Suite. It's been a very very solid thing for this company for a very long period of time as a matter of fact the CEO who is named the CEO in two thousand eighteen. Sounds like he's young. You Doc couple years in let me tell you. The guy's been there since one thousand nine hundred eighty five. This is a company that has a great C. Suite. It's why I think they function as well as they do. So when you look at that and then you start looking down at. The fundamental story trades it a great p. they got a dividend yield is not as high as I'd like to be but it's close to one and a half percent but these guys are buying back stock like you wouldn't believe in the last five years about five percent so twenty. Five percent of their stock is now off. They bought it back. So that's huge. That's a really big move and they're not just doing it for engineering purposes. They're buying back their stock for all the right reasons when you look at the strong fundamentals. I'm focused right on. Revenues and earnings when you look at revenue new growth over the last five years thirty nine percent. That's a monster number. You look at earnings growth. is well over the last five years. It's doubled so there's a lot of reasons I think when you look at this this company right now you say it is really clicking and I think because of the multiple right now. It's too cheap. I think there's plenty of upside from here cans got a question. Where do you think should be what? How do you think about? What the valuation for this? Well I look at it right now. Karen it's trading around a thirteen. Why don't we just put an SNP type on this company and and if you put something closer fifteen seventeen that puts that stock up there well above where a lot of the price targets are right now so I think that would be a little bit closer to fair and I also like the fact that they are are much more exposed to the US consumer than when you look at like visa and mastercard and some of the rest of these seventy five percent of their revenue is in the US? And that's where the strong consumer Moore is and I think we'll continue to be the next couple of years have questions otherwise we're just gonna go ahead and vote. Vote Cairns little boy now. I can't wait to see it Are you buying or selling pizza. Pitch on American Express the grass. I Love Big Fan. The Pinch Visa and mastercard out-perform outperformed for a reason. I think American Express just doesn't seem to execute the proper way and given what pizza said where you left off with Europe being not as strong strong as the United States. I think Europe has troughed. And I think you're going to see that start to bounce so for those reasons I would rather be a buyer a visa or mastercard. Karen I say bye okay. I'm really not that. This is an American Express to be that used to be the Mike Nice dinner by since two thousand and sixteen where did bottom. It's a punk rea- oppong American Express so Karen Asa Quest. So Pete ended his thing with too cheap. I put this on my board prior to the CHARISSA awesome. What should the multiple beat? Obviously American Express takes credit risk so it should be cheaper right thing. We all grieve but it should be half the valuation of Visa and Mastercard. Should it be young. Says No shouldn't be half chizzy. Close market right. Should be closer market. Multiple page. Last quarter was good. Delinquency rates. Aren't going up. which is it's a good thing? I think he can buy. Speeder rise one cell here on the desk they voted. Are you at home. A voting on pizza pitch on the mayor's American Express buying or selling cash vote on twitter twitter at CBC fast money who revealed results. Later in the show up next fed up with Fedex find out what sent shares sharply lower today. Stay with. That's fast. Money is back right after this. Welcome back money. Peleton racing higher on reports that the exercise his bike makers exploring APPs for Amazon Fire TV and the Apple Watch the company also reportedly planning a cheaper treadmill in rowing machines that hit the market next year another stock now trading at ten percent below its IPO price. Anybody believe that this could help it. Well I don't think it hurts it but again their pathway to profitable. I mean this is an expensive bike and expensive treadmill. God only knows what the rowing machine's GONNA cost. So is that a hardware company is a software company. I think they're trying to figure that out. I love the the product I got the bike on. That sucker tonight doesn't mean you take a hiatus my back was bothering. But if they're GONNA IF THEY'RE GONNA be cheaper products you just opened up the segment saying cheaper treadmill cheaper they can get the volume. Yeah so I'm within the the. IPO price was twenty nine dollars. So so it's honing in on that you starting to trend higher once you get past that resistance of the IPO price this thing could be like a coiled spring. I would say buy into that. The real price of two thousand nine all right switching gears here check out shares of Fedex rolling out today down more than three percent this comes after an impressive run. The stock is up more than thirteen percent sense since October. When Bernstein put a note saying the bull thesis for Fedex has been shredded so today's weakness of the beginning of something bigger? You flag this this guy so we've got to go to the beginning of something. Bigger looked at trend has been lower now for the last two years. I mean you look at where the stopped out and you look at the trajectory. Since I mean you've had moves of this magnitude the upside six times over the last eighteen months and the day the Bernstein said this we said you know what thanks for. Nothing you're late to the party. We also said you'RE GONNA wind that being right but your timing is miserable. And I think that's exactly what's going to happen. Fedex is sort of losing their Mojo and they've been losing it now for the last two or so years on a tape that's been extraordinary an environment where they should be crushing. They're not so. I think today told you a lot. I think the next big move is to the downside. Why do you think you know for a long time? Everybody wants to wants it's too by Fedex. They all want to give all the reasons. Why well on this pullback you want to buy it? I don't agree with that. I think they've mismanaged things for far too long. I don't think they've gone into the right direction. Look at ups look at look at the difference between two companies that we all put in the same category and ups is performed far better. I continue on that stock calls against all the time but a lot of that has to do with melt one of the biggest things whenever I do a pitch stock start with the management. I think that's what the starting point is for these to look at. UPS As management with how they've executed that look at Fedex management and how they execute Karen I'm long Fedex ups Fedex has been a perennial disappointment. Raymond management is one and succession planning. Does it didn't seem to go his plan right so Fred Smith back there again. It did a very ill timed and poorly executed integration of in Europe and then here you have Amazon switching to single day and every day delivery. So that's a a lotta spend for them so I you know it hasn't worked at all however feel the valuation is really discounted counting a lot of really bad news but I have one bad left. One bad news left. That will be the bottom. Joy showed taught pop twenty two off the bottom in October of twenty two percent season -ality for Fedex in November. That's the best month of the year for Fedex. It's usually up around five percent. A lot of this stuff is already been pre rallied. But the worst month of the year is December. Sort of Karen's point. I would probably lock in profits right now. Because December doesn't look so pretty coming F- SHARES OF CISCO IN THE RED after reporting results the company's conference call just wrapping up will break down the big highlights highlights plus one soaring semi Socks Report Marines tomorrow and options traders are betting on even bigger games when the reports. We're live at the at the Nasdaq in Times Square. Much more fast money still Ahead it is time for a wealth tax anti-american pan-american. Some billionaires. Don't support this plant. Vilification leaders makes no sense to me. It's both that is part of Democratic presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren's new Ad Campaign in it Warren blessed several billionaires. Not Just Leon Cooperman a campaign teenage telling. CNBC DOT com. Brian Schwartz. The new ad will start airing on the network later this week in reads more details on our website. By the way. We're going to hear from Leon Cooperman tomorrow. The halftime report he's already given a CNBC DOT com a statement which was filled with colorful. Words can imagine But some of the other billionaires that had been criticized sized in this Ad. Td Ameritrade former C. OF TD Ameritrade. Joe Ricketts former Goldman Sachs CEO. Lloyd blankfein in Silicon Valley investor. Peter Thiel so there's somebody for everybody here you know. It's amazing when you seen Wall Street. They've been forced to give to both sides of the aisle for every presidential election. They have to donate money. The Democrats and Republicans. We've heard from some of the bank saying they're gonNA sit this one out. I wonder as this ratchets up even closer to the election. How how many of them really sit on their hands? Because how do you invest in that. If you're a capitalist. I'm not really sure how you go about doing that. Everyone knows as unbiased as you can get. It was interesting that Senator Ted Cruz tried to press Jerome Powell towards the end of the testimony to comment on the impact of a wealth tax. Jerome Powell would not take the bait. He said I'm not going to assess or score any sort of campaign proposals. That's not my job opera feds job. That's the job of the COE and voters you can decide for yourself He kinda got out of that. But you gotta wonder what the impact would have in terms. You're saying it may not just be billionaires. It's easy to go after billionaires because the numbers are so few but it might be other people who are aspirational who want to be to build the the idea of. Yeah Yeah exactly right. And I think that's part of what we'll see how this plays out and clearly you're going for the masses when you're making this kind of a statement but how do the masses really react to that. That's the be something. I think pretty interesting because I don't know it's as big of a layup as people think going in all right. Let's get to Cisco here we've got an earnings alert. The stock his down after hours. Frank Collins headquarters details. Hey Frank's Melissa week guidance. For the Second Quarter Bean dip and CISCO shares even after a solid beat on the top and the bottom line. The company giving really what you have to call a dire forecast for Q to Saint Louis C. revenues falling three to five percent versus estimates of two point six percent growth Cisco's. EPS forecast ask falling several cents below estimates as well CEO Chuck Robbins Sang Macro issues such as the US China trade war brexit and US political turmoil or leading to lower board business confidence and then impacting Cisco on the call Robbins offered more insight into the business factors that led to that we guidance public sector continued to be strong. But the rest where you know in enterprise commercial Did we can you. You Know Service provider in emerging markets which were stressed last quarter. Were about the same. We had shown you know the ability to To offset authorship that would strengthen these in commercial and enterprise and public sector and when those weakened obviously there's quarter that impacted our ability to to offset them. We've got a quick take from Needham's Alex Henderson. You raise the stock as a hold. Any added in reference to that guidance perhaps a shock to investors. That might have thought that this was a more stable growth. Business and and weakness looks to be from Cisco's cloud customers and service providers service providers include companies such as. At and T. and verizon. We're GONNA continue this conversation about Cisco during an exclusive interview with CEO Chuck Robbins Nine am on Squawk on the street tomorrow. Melissa thank you Frank Hall and Becca Headquarters. What do you make of the second quarter in a row aware CISCO'S BLAMING US China as dampening consumer or business confidence and have to spend? At least I don't know I mean it used to be that Cisco would announcing that would be really A proxy for how Corporate America or maybe we're worldwide is doing it. I wonder if that is the case. Now if it's not so specific to them but it is more broader concern So I don't know actually I'm surprised the the futures are down a little bit on this because I think I think it's kind of a big deal. Yeah the cutest sales missed by the way that's a billion dollars. The billion dollar shortfall. It's the revenues. Yeah it's it's a big mess. I mean go back to the middle of July in July. This was a fifty seven dollar stock doc. Two weeks later it was trained. Forty six on commentary. Basically like we're hearing now so. I think we absolutely go back and revisit. That August I think was forty-six six regardless of what you think about valuation their clarity going forward. US China. I think the stock is destined trade. That loan we'll see what happens when we get there. But the KARENS point I'm surprised that is not having this should be bigger than just cisco it's my sense what I would love to know and I think maybe you could only figure this out by reading the transcript scripted. This point is qualitatively. Where did they see was consistence? Hang back into span throughout the quarter or was it more recent as China trade. The headline started getting a little bit. More tendency was bad. Yes because the interesting thing about Cisco is of course they're they're on a fiscal calendar so they reportedly but later. Are you making a little bit more clarity. In terms of what is happening more recently in time. Yeah and the pressures that the they they put this out there already once before now they do it again and two guys point the forty six number the fifty eight to forty six and here we are again so but the problem I see going forward is we need to see them. Actually put us back in place with a quarter and they can't keep doing this because if the rest of the market isn't quite as negative unless that changes in the next quarter then then then then Cisco was right but otherwise otherwise is this more of a Cisco issue. Well it certainly could be. The competition is fierce. And we all know. There's not one not two but at least two or three or four your competitors right now with Cisco they're still the Big One but they've got competition so earnings are are lagging and guidances leading. This is the second time to your the point that we've heard about lowering guidance. So I don't think it's a so much as a macro call anymore. I think it's as Cisco specifically all right. Let's get to the chip stocks. They've been ripping through the last month. There's a semi search heats up. Big Names Corvo. Amdi qualcomm have done a lot of the heavy lifting checkout and video. That stock has been. No slouch either. It's up more than twelve percent in the past month. A whopping fifty six percent of the year the company reporting results tomorrow after the bell options traders are betting that the semi stock concerns even higher. Mike is in San Francisco. This go without the action. Hey Mike there are so invidia the calls out trade the puts by about two to one in the options market implying a move of about six point eight percent. That's in line with the six six point one percent or so that it is averaged over the last eight quarters most active when I was looking at this where the November twenty calls over three thousand of those at traded for just over two dollars the fire of those is making a bet that is going to rise above the twentieth strike by at least the two bucks that they paid also point out that you can see also not just by what they are doing but what they aren't doing doing how high they think the stock might go because if you bought the two tens those would've been broke breaking even up about four percent these outpace that up eight point eight percent so that's probably the kind kind of bet that they're expecting to make here low probability about the options market. Thanks is about a twenty percent chance that it gets that high all right Mike. Thanks for that Mike. Cohen San Francisco more options action tune in to our full show. That is on Friday which is not tomorrow Friday five thirty. PM Eastern time up next final trades. d'urville weather you at home or buying pizza. Pitch on American Express was close but no cigar. America is not fine pitch heats pitch on Amex but at least we get to play a little Toni. Braxton because we missed her the laws Disney really well enjoy this final trade. Go ahead the the wrong about American Express putt Disney fly into the upside sell the GIA. The December fifty calls against him Gaza. I'm sticking with this one. West Rock W. R. K.. Must hold forty eighty dollars chairwoman. Yes reporting tomorrow but I like target better. Look at the block version of doubts. I like Jim Braxton. Braxton Love Jim br remember we talked about having tickets at the feedback from our five four fast mad money with Jim. Cramer begins the right now. Problems it's human nature to hate problems. But why is that after all problems inspire us to mend things. Ben Things make things things better. That's why so many people work with IBM on everything from city. Traffic to ocean plastic new schools to new energy flight. Delays Delays to food safety smart loves problems I._B._M.. Let's put smart to work visit. I._B._M. dot com slash smart to learn more.

Disney Amazon Nike United States Cisco Netflix Grasso Karen Feinerman Guidoni IBM American Express Fed Jerome Powell Fedex Pete Times Square Disney CEO New York City Tom Rogers verizon
Ep. 173: Heres What You Oughta Do

MeatEater Podcast

2:05:41 hr | 1 year ago

Ep. 173: Heres What You Oughta Do

"Navy? Federal is proud to serve over eight million members in his open to active duty military. The DOD veterans and their family members, receive a lifetime of membership benefits like a credit card AP, our average that is four percent lower than the industry's member only exclusive rates and more visit navy federal dot org slash meter. For more information call one eight eight eight four to six three two eight or download the navy Federal Credit Union app today. Message and data rates may apply. Visit navyfederal dot ORG. For more information. This is the media podcast, Culina you shirtless. Severely vote bitten in my case underwear 'less either. Either podcast, you can't predict anything. Presented by on X hunt. Creators of the most comprehensive digital mapping system for hunters, download the hunt at from the I tunes or Google play store, nor you stand with annex. You know what was story menia have occasion to tell all the time when the subject of sunglasses in polarized? Lenses comes up is the first time I went down to Guyana was, like two thousand nine ten sounds about right. And these guys are the fishing and bow fishnets sons guns on the planet and live on the water. Yeah. I mean they hunt and fish, you know, two hundred two hundred and fifty days a year, but they go out to get tonight's dinner all the time, and they both fish, and he didn't know about polarized lenses, and I kept trying to talk them into. We're talking about makuuchi guys of people from the makuuchi tribe, and also op Sean, how you pronounce it. Didn't blame you say man you put these things on your bills sea fish, really good. And it kinda put him out very awkward feeling firm to have on. And they were skeptical about shades which I couldn't believe still get spot fish like what good right? In a lot of years. Go by six years. Go by. And it was funny because I go back down there, same dudes and every single one of those dudes is running Costa sunglasses living them from the town Waco. Yeah. They go to bed. Yeah. N-nor town you. You know, if you don't if you don't have polarized out here. Ain't gonna work, bro. If you like looking into the water and seeing fish swim around and whatnot seeing seeing where you step tell you what the other day I was with my kids, and we were going down to scout a blue Gill pond. And I could see of bath and blue Gill. It was overcast I could see a bass and blow going right there, right there is this is my little daughter. She couldn't see what I was talking about. And I took my shades off and put them on her and her face is lit up because they're that thing was playing day. She's big believer. Oh man. I had a experience so many times guiding five fishermen. I can't see your what are you talking about this out in the other? And then you realize that they didn't have polarized on you swap sunglasses for a second with them. And like you said their face would light up holy shit. So that's what you. There's a whole world under their check them out gets some coasters, Gary once today were joined by most prominently, Becky Humphries from national wild Turkey federation, who's been on before I have an WTN F and deputy f. Retard you whole bunch before that. We're gonna talk to our very own Joe Farren tunnel. Fair Nado, but close auto. Oh, it's all. Well, I know. Joe are you thinking we should Italian? I know but a lot of that's been lost a lot of my Italian drifted. Fair nado. I couldn't find your phone number my phone. This is your first time you've ever been on the first time you've ever stepped on. And you're only here for a minute trial, run, it is we did reason Joe's here. We did a if you write an if you write an Email into us, Joe will likely reply, or at least knows what's going on tip Joe. Joe's the gatekeeper. We recently did a thing where we were raising money. We, we had a we had my former fish, shootin bow. Right. And we told people, hey, whoever promises to whoever promises to send the highest amount of money to TR CPI gets the fish shooting. Bo. And tell them what ham, some of the challenges we face and how you handle them. So I mean, we had a lot of people right in about it a lot. I used Lingle. Joe my single. No. Or you're not saying, I'm not okay. Go ahead. I'm engaged. Yeah, he's the opposite. I was going to put a little plug for, you know, I'm getting okay great. I'll thank you can talk that fair trial. Go on. But yeah, so I mean, we had a lot of people right in lots of good donation offers, probably the biggest struggle is people donating the money before they received the bow free. Three of the donor EMT donation thinking that they were gonna get in anyway. Which is awesome. But on on this next giveaway, I'd make sure that you don't donate until till you realize that you're the one getting the bow. So what was another? If you want you could certainly donate. Yeah. I mean, if you to always. Place. No. And I think what they were trying to do was. I don't think they thought they had got the bow. I think they're like, look how serious I am here at already is. But then we had another strange offer. Another sharing job for one. Twenty five dollars a month for the next fifty years. Yeah, he was thirty five. He's spending live till eighty five. He said he's not planning to die until he was eighty five years old into credit cards and to keep the same credit card number for fifty years. Yep. And then just donate twenty five dollars a month in the next fifty years. We spent a long time talking about that offer. Yeah. How did we fall in the end, we fell on the probably wouldn't happen? Probably wouldn't be continuous throughout that fifty years. So we decided to do a lump sum up front. No nothing against that fellow nothing. I guess. Well, it's just a complicated process, very complicated legacy partner program, wished here in mediator, and we're not really set up to facility. And tell them, what that bow was now the one in your hand not the new giveaway nothing. You want the, the old fish, Bill the night, a Osprey. Yeah. So it's a pretty good fish Bill left, the here's a big thing, left handed. Yeah. Left-handed because you're, you're a lefty and left-handed Osprey now explain the new Bo. And this, this is you have to because becky's here, so in honor Becky being here you this. Bo. Whoever pledges to give the highest amount to end. WTO. Jeff. Gets the bow explained the book because this is this is a ready to shoot. It always left a quiver. Full a world traveling, it is the world, traveled bow. And you could tell by the stream needs new string. It's we might actually cut that string before we send it to make sure you put a new string on it. Yeah. So it'd be paired to have it arrive with no sharing on it. What do you think? What do you think he gets the reliability like that? No, I don't think it's going to break. It just needs to be waxed. Cottons during this is a ready to shoot bow, and Joe is going to walk you through the accessory package. Can I tell them what the bow is? I you wanna do it. Yeah. However, you wanna do it. Yeah. So he was going to be like, Vanna white, but yoda's know who Vanna white is ages, Joe. I'm young, I'm sorry, but it's a holy carbon spider left-handed obviously, it's got the spot Hogg believe it's called the hunter five pin side on it with the, the micro adjust spendy site. It to good site. I've had it on my Bose for many, many years has the Hoyt ultra rest. So it's just like the QA deal. Tra- drop away, Joel's good at this, but knows the product names, he shoots a bowl. It's gotta, you know, flippy things thing. Thing that you lift up with your standard brawls away. No, it's, it's a it's a great rest in good condition. So you did a good job taking care of it. And it has things on it. And yeah, little pulley things on there. Yeah. No. It's good. It's a sixty to seventy pound pound Bill. Looks like it's not maxed out right now where you pull in, like sixty five Steve. That is actually ninety nine. Then it has a two piece Hoyt quiver. The one that attach is straight to the Bo. So it's not a removable quiver, but it's a great Bill. It's an awesome give it. And check this out when our new episodes, roll up on Netflix. You'll see that Bo used that boat makes appearance of quite a few thousand using that bowl and we did our like Nevada hunt with Rogin use that bowl and killed a real Walker of elk in last year, which will be on a. Thing us that bow down. And I don't know if it ever made it into the cut, but it was down in Guyana. Oh. Definitely. No shot. Curse out hunting birds down in South America. Another episode where I miss at point blank range, I missed the C Qadeer of that. Bo. Not the fault. And they might be mistakes. You see it'd be like, not that both fall. Hey, you know, should you tell them the drawing? I'm guessing since you're twenty nine inch, I'll link that this is set at twenty nine and if it's not go get it. The jets, probably why I think it might be twenty eight to be honest with you. Thanks. All right. So here's what you do. Tell them how to do it. Tell them how to do it. That makes your life easier and tell them what, how long you're willing to field offers. So this castle drop on a Monday, and we'll leave that open for two days, we'll decide Wednesday. I'll reach out to the person with the highest donation on Wednesday. And that's all you'll get the Bill one time donation at one time donation, don't try and finance your donations. We're not going to do that. We're not gonna set up the legacy partnership with you today, send you like a, a receipt, or they sent an Email that says. Hey, I'm going to pledge this station. Yes. And once I reach out to him. I'll have them go forward and send the receipt back in so with confirmation that they don't just sent an Email saying, I'm planning on pledging this amount. She had Becky here have one of her people verify that they came through. That we wanna make sure it's verified because we don't want to just send Steve's world traveling boat or somebody didn't donate the money, Hoyt carbon, spider carbon baptism box. I think we'll get a K going to win for quite a bit above retail quite a bit. Is it a collector's item? This is a collector's item. It's a world traveling carbon spider. We're getting real QVC over here that. He's been in the hands of Stephen or Annella. Yeah, good. Yeah. I'm good. We did we got to get a picture. Oh. With that. Bo. A lotta pictures field. We'll get. We'll get us. All right, sounds that ladies and gentlemen, Joe fair Nado. He said it right? Thanks, joe. And thank you. That's awesome. Now, here comes strapping on Giovanna still warm headset is Spencer Newhart. Get back. I know we got a lot of stuff on top. I got to tell you about something. I okay. If you don't know that's fine. Okay. What is more diagnostic on a Turkey? In terms of age. Oh. All talking about is like Jake Jake. So a one year old or older than. What am I trying to say? Yeah. What is more diagnostic, the tail fan? In the length of the feathers, relative to one another or these spur. Well, we usually use the tail fan just because we know when they do replacement of those tail feathers. That's the most re I mean that's the one that everybody uses to determine twin the Jake and the adult Tom in terms of the tail fan, and it's the easiest to see at a distance to I mean those, those Spurs and various, you know, various types of Turkey's have different Sperling, too. So you got to compare it to the other the other birds are in terms of that. So of I told you that we shot a. Long beard. Okay. It's a Miriam's seven eight inch beard on it full tail fan. Goblin space off who had one kind of spur and in one no spur. And then I says the my brother. Wow. That's where he goes, now, here, it's not because I've got another one just like it you ever hear that. Well, I've heard of it where you have anomalies like that. You know, it's interesting, you get gene pool in certain areas where you get some anomalies last year. I was in Oklahoma. I guess it was. And the when the guy was hunting with that told me he had seen a bearded hen, and he saw this bearded hen, that was actually strutting, and then I wound up going out that day, and we had a bearded hen. It was full strut beaten up on decoy for hours than so you, he gets some anomalies that get in the gene pool where you know, you don't have spurred development for whatever reason, and they persist, now obviously that bird is not in a situation where they're needing their Spurs to fight an awful lot. Because at bird doesn't have them is going to be a hindrance but I presume it was. An area where there wasn't probably a great density of Turkey's. No, it's like a little island, ecosystem. Yep. So he could not literally Nyland, but a but yeah, yeah. An island of habitat or they're they're around. So he didn't. He didn't. You don't even really appreciate. How island is island? Habitat, isn't you look at satellite imagery, and you're like, wow. These turkeys are just they had their own. They had to satellite in there. They had to airdrop in there. They probably don't run into turkeys it. They haven't they don't know. Yeah. So they have their pecking order already established. They know it. They that bird doesn't have to fight all the time to maintain position in the, in the flock or accepts it. That's the other thing. I've heard that spur length can be dictated by the landscape to live on so, like a bird that lives on the mountains where there's very rocky soil or like real, gravelly substrate, their Spurs get worn down. So the real short and Nogi recycle bird down south in the Morsch. Nothing wears on their Spurs. So they grow longer and pointer anything to that. I tell people that all the time too. Do you by that? I mean there could be I mean, there could be differences like that. You see between the various, you know, subspecies the birds they have various links Spurs down in Florida. Those birds those Osceola are real limb hangers. They tend to have really nice long Spurs, and so that would go along with your theory, but they're also pretty sandy soils down there. So, which is, you know anybody has a dog kinda knows. If you're in sandy, soils you tend to that wears down anything like that in terms of nails or the rest of it. So, you know, I know. Be more to do with the it might be more to do with the bird bird, the food that they're getting, you know, the, you know, the character development on that for the subspecies of it. And then the man, I always tell people that I'm like reason, he's not a big limb hanger, as you say he explained with limb hangers Elim hangers Birdsville, hang buys up in a limb by Spurs, because his Spurs or so long hoops, right? How many how much do you? You work in Turkey's. But how much do you actually hunt turkeys? Did you get a fair bit or you just too busy, all the time some years, I hunt more than others? This is one of those years where I've done less Honey, only hunted, South Carolina. Now Hon, little bit Michigan while I'm up there. But other years, I try and get around, you know, we were really fortunate. We have a lot of great hunts. We have governor hunt's Lieutenant governor hunt's around the country and try and get out there with those folks trained get some of our mentored hunters in. I always try and take out somebody that hasn't hunted before, as well things that I do each season because I mean, that's what you know, gives you juice in this business, and, and it's as much fun as, as taken a bird or even more fun. Taking your bird yourself, so some more fun. Yeah, the white person that's more fun. So it varies from year to year. Sometimes I schedule myself. For more hunts this year? I laid back on it. I just moved. I'm heavy into a remodel project, and we've got a lot of stuff going out at work. So with all that I didn't schedule myself for as much hunt. Which gets me real itchy this time of year because we're we're fast approaching, I mean, the seasons of ended in many of the southern States, South Carolina, where the office is closed. Now that season ended Michigan still go on through the end of may. So I can capture some of that. Leo for me. Layoff me, just kind of give me the landscape of NWF. And you've done it before we just do it again. Kind of like mission statement where you're at with membership. All that kind of stuff. Well, the national wild Turkey federation is were forty six going on forty seven years old. It was it was set up to restore the wild Turkey, Tom Rogers, the original, founder of it had a vision that we could restore the wild Turkey to North America, and we're an organization that came together and did that in the early days, we really were a group that did fundraising to help states with trapping efforts, we taught the technology of LA the trapping to the state agencies, and then we help broker the deal so you could trade wildlife between states because you can get yourself in trouble with the Lacey act if you put dollar figures on it, and that's why that happens. Yeah. I didn't realize it. That's why people did swaps. Yep. That's because the Lacey act, you know, when we passed the Lacey act in this country to prohibit. Interstate movement and trade in birds or wildlife in particular. It was a great thing, but state agencies then if they're trying to swap out wild turkeys, those have they also have value to the residents of that state and so giving away their precious wild birds. Usually, they wanted in the end they want to explain to their residents that we're getting something in return for that. So I mean we swap turkeys for otters and turkeys for Elkin turkeys for rough grouse, and they're all kinds of deals around the country. It was the roof exchange rate in your mind. I don't even know now. No one time I was always seem a little. I mean, we're people real literal about a value or is it kind of like almost like a gesture, it was a gesture, but in, in most situations sits when a state really want to reestablish something else. So, for instance, you know, when we were getting turkeys, I, we were trapping rough grouse, and in parts of Michigan around gracious Saginaw, and we ran grouse trap. Ping operations all all summer long to try and get those birds to get to fulfil the requirement. So we could get birds turkeys back in that winter or you mean you were trapped and grouse in order to swap them out. So we could get turkeys back who you who, who was after rouse. I, I think it was Iowa that particular time that we are getting our turkeys from. But I don't know who they were swapping with an order to get the grouse. So somebody in the mid west? I do remember that states ever trade turkeys for Turkey's, like, once they want Easterns, and the state wants Mariam's swallow, they have in the west, but I'm not aware of situations where they swapped various, you know, subspecies between that, but I'm sure they probably have with a menus gotta be real interesting. When you're dealing with the state like Texas. Zebra. Yeah. Zebra, you keep your keep your exotics to yourself. Thank you very much. The draft redraft it was wild in terms of some of the swaps it went on. But anyhow from there, the national Turkey federation is one of those organizations that actually achieved its mission. We worked with the state agencies and restored wild turkeys to, to its historic range and beyond. I mean, we have Turkey some places that, that really weren't historic at the time, the settlers, European settlers came over here, and that's we've got habitat for him. And they're doing well in some of those areas now, and that's great. And there's a lot of social enthusiasm. It's hard to go. I'm gonna ask if he ever got any pushback from that where people say, well, you know, they weren't here. In California turkeys, there were I mean we, we wound up doing studies there, there were concerns with the turkeys would negatively impact the vineyards that they were historic to that area in, you know, the question is how far do you go back on that there is historic evidence, awhile, turkeys, and Californian? So as birds expanded into those areas, and those were restored efforts, and we're able to go in and show that Turkey's the, you know, at the time that they're feeding in vineyards where you've got a lot of great maturity, and all the rest of it. They're really after more high-protein than they are. They might be incidental, takers of, of grapes, and the rest of it. But usually allow the damage is coming from other species out there. You got raccoons that are going out there and clean them out, and the rest of it, but the turkeys are very visible because they're seen more commonly during the daylight hours and, and people see him and they assume they're causing damage. So I was reading about that same. I'm in Wisconsin. When I started seeing a lot to numbers and same thing, they're so visible. He seemed out on the field and the farmers were like they're gonna eat us out of house and home. And they had to do a big study to prove that, well, no, actually it's like ten percent of their diet, and they're usually just picking up the scraps that you've left behind any straight, or the insects thing it's beneficial where they're out there feeding heavily on insects in those in those fields. So the national wild Turkey federation really around year two thousand head completed most of those efforts to restore, and we moved into, we had always incorporated, creating hunting, heritage maintaining the hunting, heritage and really trying to create that next generation of hunters. So we can carry on the lifestyle and the appreciation of hunting and the use of, of hunted animals in our food base in, then we added in habitat restoration, because at that point, we're starting, you know, in parts of this country. We're seeing actual. Declines in Turkey populations now, that they've been restored, they're starting to taper back off, especially this southeastern United States. And in a what's going on with that? We're seeing large landscape level changes. I mean, we know we're losing a lot of the mass crops in the mid west hickory trees, went by the wayside American chess Dutt has has gone. And we've left it now oaks are starting to diminish and that mid western landscape. Those mass crops are just from Jay z land use practice and development. Well, and our forest or turning over to those, those oak, forests that appeared and grew up after logging, and in would lot development and large forest tracks now are turning over to beech maple forest in many areas. And they don't have they don't have the mask crap. They don't provide the food. There's readily available for allow the wildlife species that we all love. I mean deer Turkey, squirrel. Are that hard mast has really, really? Portwood a lot population's. What would you say the deer had to do, and they were in the law, Bliley pine? They had to pack a lunch and take it with them. And you've seen that in red pine stands in Michigan. I mean, those pine forests are all needles on the floor there isn't a four that grows internet there. There's not good sunlight, and they just there's not anything for them to eat. So it's. That's what's happening. I think there's I think there's a whole range of things that are happening to be honest with you had its worst Turkey harvest than seventeen years. I haven't gotten that could be like, you know, that could be weather to could be weather could be what weather was last year for brood production last year. Hang out of bed. Wicked had a wicked snowstorm. I know. And usually your year after really bad weather conditions. When you have you don't have the kind of nest success that you'd really like is where you really feel it the following year. So you feel that there's real, we had a piece about this on the meter dot com about Turkey, you know, Turkey populations dropping and a lot of areas, and then we got a lot of emails people who real upset like, not my woods. Yeah. I don't know how to find them. Yeah, yeah. A lot of folks would be like my bird feeder, there's, like three of them around that every more for their opportunistic, there's no doubt about it. But you do feel that there are like systemic. There are some areas where, you know, South Carolina's one of them that they have really been struggling. We are seeing a definite decline even though hundred numbers are staying are up are actually increasing in some cases. So interesting turkeys is increase. Let me float an idea by okay? Abbadi mind put this to me. He says, you know what's really going on with Turkey's. He says we're killing them too early. I think in some cases, we are good. I think you know, your rational guy now. He's like people who say, like get into mid may, and they say the turkeys are all gobbled out. It goes not gobbled out there dead. Well, and they shut up. I mean that's the other thing most of the studies that take a look at what's happening to birds. They react to hunting pressure. It's like predator pressure. We are predators out there. They move we did telemetry studies here, most recently. And it was fun to watch it on a screen. We showed it for our board couple years ago, but you'd see one hundred walk into an area, you know and, and that bird would walk in further to that area in the hunter would leave and that will bird would walk back. I mean they are they avoid, they know were there. They, you know, even if you're a decent hunter, they know that you're coming into that. And they shut up, we don't see as much gobbling activity in the rest of it. So it's a response just like other predators would be. We're they'll shut up more, and we've all seen that, when birds they'll do a gobble on the roost. And then they when they land on the ground, they're done talking, they'll come inside at that point. So. You know, it, it I think, in some cases, though there's been a lot of controversy right down in South Carolina about what should be the right starting date that, that stayed is, is a state that has temperature changes and climate changes from the coastal area gets warmer sooner they wanna start hunting sooner. But the peak, gobbling activity and the nest initiation is really about April ninth. That's most the studies are most recent study shows that the when nest initiation is April ninth. And they go in there in South Carolina, South Carolina. No, it varies. Another parts of the point. She's dropped her eleven twelve ten and. That's right. And if you're hunting if you start your season before that time period, she still inbreeding cycle at that point. That's you know that's just the peak. There's some that started early there some that start leg. But that's kind of the peak that occurs with that population. So there's discussion down there that they buy they moved their season to start into March, and you're probably disrupting those birds and not getting all the birds Brad and you're not getting as much success on those Ness, because you are having that disruption early during that breeding cycle. So states are taking a look at that also. It's been interesting to take a look at what we're doing with hunting seasons as we move forward. And we know that the timing of the seasons really important, the amount of pressure on the birds is really important. And you know what happens is people wanna have lots of opportunity, they to have lots of days to hunt, and they think that by cutting back bag limits, they can limit what the pressure is on that on that population. But really? In, in almost all your wildlife populations the length the season, the number of people that hunt are the two factors that have the biggest impact on the population harvest in this article that Steve references called the new silent spring, where the turkeys, the author was David Hart. And he talked Sean, a number of different theories as to where the turkeys have gone. Why their population have been falling the recent decade, one of the things that he kind of suggested? But then dismissed was them all. Yes. Besides that was disease, specifically West Nile. You've kind of brought up how states have thought that that's what's decimated grouse populations. So maybe it's doing the same thing with Turkey's but there's just not enough information available. What are your thoughts on, like West Nile, Turkey's good friend of mine? John Fisher and is head of the while he was he just retired as head of the wildlife disease, cooperative at university of Georgia, and John and I shared a lot of the health committees for the association estate agencies and in everybody wants to look to disease, they especially as places where poultry farms, you know, spread manure from poultry houses, and all the rest of it is there an opportunity that we're really spreading disease out there, and I'm not saying that we can't or won't happen. But and you never wanna have birds feeding over situations where they could be exposed to that, where you have dead birds, but with avian influence and stuff. We just haven't seen the die off. I mean, we've done an awful lot of surveillance states have with avian influenza, and what their impacts. We know there are indicator species are far more susceptible to that particular disease, and we're not seeing the indicator species go. We're not seeing it with with the turkeys. Are you saying that there are other species, that are better indicator of West Nile? Yeah. Frozen jays. Yeah. Yeah. Corporal mega hit hard by that really hard they, and they're the first ones when you have that disease show up when you start seeing crow die-offs or raven Diaz, you've got a good indicator got even influence out there. Oh, not west now even influence. I didn't know that. So they're susceptible. Yeah. And this is southern because your body doesn't handle it. Well, or because they're more likely to get stung by mosquitoes. I don't know the answer to that one I don't know enough about it. So, but in West Nile virus the same thing, I mean these viruses have been going, we really expected with West Nile that we would Corbett's a really susceptible west West Nile species, too, so that was where we I indicated it, but we really expected that we would see major die-offs started getting in the in the populations. And, and we did in places so but we also look for high path, avian influenza. That's one of the ones that found in waterfall on his really susceptive. So we use high path high path, high highly pathogenic avian influence. There's always low path low pathogenic avian influenza that center waterfall populations is just endemic and we have it. But when you get in the high pathogenic. That's where you have it kills off major populations of it. And that's a real concern. So, and there's you know, there's avian pox the number of different diseases out there. Abyan it can be spread through populations. So it's probably through touching close proximity feces that kind of stuff. Insect born no, no. What are those theories, there are theories is nothing's have? There's another theory in. I don't understand just one. I mean I understand the concept. But I don't know how true it is that there's just a natural when you bring in, when you reintroduce the species or introduced species, there's a thing where they don't call it. I know founder fact is something entirely different. There's some name for it. I it's like a bloom. Yeah. And then they go like, and then they taper exploiting some environment. For the first time, there's ample food, predators aren't tuned into it yet? And they have this like they, they. Yeah, they bloom. They do really well, and there's a time lag before your predator species kitsch onto it. You know you wind up having the disease issues come along with it. And part of this. Yeah. And then at that point in time the population trails off a little bit. And, and you see that historically in some cases, and we see it with exotic species now native species that come in. I mean I gotta do is look at things like the Great Lakes where you wind up having these zebra mussel populations that just were tremendous blooms. Who were overall the intake pipes and all the rest of it and, and create us, you know, fills this unfilled niche out there or more of greater concern is they replaced native species, because they're more competitive in that environment because they don't have predators or parasites that have adapted to them yet. So they have a competitive edge out there, so yeah, there's some of that. I mean, the other theory is there's, there's been lots of discussion about fire on the landscape in in. This is more a discussion in southeast United States with the large. The forest service has really worked trying and be more active in their management. Get those fuel lodestone, especially in those pine, forests that are fired driven habitats in we're used to have a lot of lightning strikes. Wildfires would move through and burn off the under story, the fuel load and, and help promote the grass those ridding the ground of those needles. That's right. Would allow to come up. That's right. And you those habitats were originally savannah left to their own where they're very open canopy, but you have trees and, and fire moose through it in, in the southern plains at subpoena, Savannah's, you tend to get up in the mid west, and you get the oak savanna, same type of habitat, their fire driven habitats that had a lot of fire that moved through them on a regular basis before we got involved in the in the ecosystem and living there. And then we suppressed that fire, and what has happened then is you wind up having a lot of Woody vegetation, turkeys, don't like to have really a lot of heavy cover. That's Woody right around him because they can't see the they feel unprotected in that much per for to have good grass cover where they have greater visibility. But yet they have good nest protection and then you wind up getting a lot more insect damage air insect. Nut damage, but insect availability for protein food source and all the rest of us when you have that sunshine that comes down to. The forest floor. You think? Yeah, I would imagine that fire could be bad for insects, but habitat wise, it makes up for it makes up for it, and there's, you know, the insects live and those landscapes when you when you see those landscapes after their burned quite often. There's a very large ant. Colonies go in conjunction with it. Those sandy soils are very heavy mineral. There's not a lot of topsoil on them in those ants, are really important for breaking down. What vegetative material or there and getting some organic Senate, you know, placement back in place. It'll burn those ant colonies if you get too hot to fire normal pasture up if you get a really hot fire out I've seen where it's it'll burn it out the ant colonies also, but it comes back landscape. Now it's not bad. It's it's it is part of what happens there. So by putting that fire back on the landscape. We're getting it overall back and better shape for Turkey's because it's getting that open. Grassy component to the savannah Beckham place. But people see we're birds might be nesting and, and the nest gets burned during that time period. And they think we're losing lots of Turkey's to those large-scale fires that are prescribed fires when, in fact, a lot of times they go back and renesse sometimes the nest is even harmed. I mean there you'll see photographs of from researchers, they'll go back in, they'll take a photograph, the nest egg will even be singed, but the nest will hatch, the hen picks up as a fire moisture. She comes back right afterwards. And if you are in those landscapes, right after the burn turkeys, move back in when it still all black, so you guys did a study on that. Yeah. So you had turkeys attrac- into voices and looked at how they respond to fire, and they respond very favorably. So short term losses long-term gain on that landscape. What's a trek invoice? Look like on a Turkey. It's a little a little transmitter goes on the back. There's too. So you can do it through a radio signal or a little larger one will be a satellite signal. So now we have the ability to track them through satellite. And that's like embedded in the Turkey. It goes right on the back between the shoulder says where it goes under the skin. Yeah. We, we put it under the skin originally with some of these devices, they used to have harnesses that fit on them. Now we've gotten to the point where we embed it right in there and it's nice. You can, you can actually imbed it. But it actually you can crazy glue it right on the on the skin. Pull some a few of the feathers out. Crazy, glue it right on the skin and its there it stays there, but area that I was in Tennessee was trying to has a lot of these components that we're talking about where you know, we were on one side of the county. There's birds everywhere on really some of the same property on about fifteen minutes away. Like, yeah, this used to be exactly like the stuff that we were hunting, where there are tons of birds in the last year Nobre, and they had captured a ham. Birds out on. All all reds property out there and put those tracking devices on them to try to get a better understanding what's happening, but went from hundreds of birds to when we went out there. We saw saw one loan Tom out cruising around, or they think they moved or died. He thinks they died. Okay. Yep. And it's the same deal out here in eastern Montana, that I was telling you about, like, the you know there. Person do observation their answer. Like only thing I can think of is a disease, because they were so many birds. And then nobody's well yeah we've seen that out here as well. Just they're just their notes like tons of them and often they're not there, and it takes years to come back. Well, that's it when you lose a population. When you, you get down to a critical mass where you don't have a good breeding population when you lose a couple of production cycles. It takes a long time for those bursts, come back in and fill it. But, you know, sometimes these landscape changes that happen, we don't even recognize them. Give you a perfect example where I live in Michigan. We had we have had turkeys for years. We hunted are back hillside. It was a really nice oak mixed hardwood. Stand with some really old oak mass trees, that are rouce trees on it and stuff in. You know, I I go out there every year. I've seen less turkeys, there's more development area more homes. I'm thinking it's just disturbance. My son comes home, who, who spent a lot of time out back there. And he didn't have been back in three years. And they said, you know, Becky, we're losing our oak. This is moving over to beach beach maple. And you know, it wasn't till Joel said that to me that I started really looking around and thinking should I been property for thirty years? I don't see the kind of maturity changes because every year, I'm out there during that time period in and you don't see that continual maturity in the changeover in how some of the dominant trees are starting to die out and become, you know, sub dominant net that forest and so what's the solution for that? If you cut it. Caught everything not everything. I mean to go into a shelter would cut and bring up some of those I should cut out some of those big older oak trees are starting to die out because they're starting to die, and there's some younger oaks, and I need to release those on that hillside. It's pretty steep hillside stat that much acreage is hard to get in. Somebody to cut it. We don't have a lot of small cutters anymore, you know, in a lot of these timber markets. So it's really hard to get somebody in there to do it. Go the chainsaw with chainsaw our body, Doug. He manages of family farm, he works his ass off try to keep oaks. It's Ricky because the thing is, too, is like, there's so many more deer now where he is. And so they have the way they like to feed, and he has he has a lot of like active forestry management to try to, to keep the, the, you know. The oaks we have the sweet of trees on the on his place, he'd like to see because if he did I came over what one it is. If you just let it go would you want red maple something? He doesn't like a lot of it's probably red maple. It takes over in those upland hardwood. Stands. You just didn't do it. And you just had a bunch of deer there. No one didn't anything and no one was doing any kind of select work. You need wind up with a lot of maple on support the dozens more doesn't sport the, the amount of life. No, it doesn't. It doesn't have the mass crop that you really need to support the wildlife. They really want. They're so I'll tell you start. You ought to do K. Get get your pencil out because this is a good study. I've seen this happened a couple of times now, we're talking, I'm sure it happens in other states, but you should go in. There's a this, this state here that we happen to be sitting in right now is divided into seven regions in. K K. Over the years, they've added on which regions, you're allowed to use an over the counter Turkey tag for came. So as a region is coming into its own with Turkey numbers. It's a draw, and I have come in and hunted turkeys in areas, where it's a draw or you got to apply and win a lottery to get a Turkey permit. I know a very different kind of Turkey hunting, then. When it's an over the counter because people over two years, they why says they know we're all the turkeys are and the minute you can just go they go right? It'd be really interesting to. There's one region left in this state. That's still hard to draw. Turkey tag. Presumably, it'll get to where they're going to open it up, if be interesting to do a gobble study or something to cause here, you have, like a great scenario of, of Turkey population, and all of a sudden, the floodgates opened and a lot more pressure on it and watch and try to put some numbers to how they respond where they're spending their time like how much they gobble. Where do you like to hang out how much are they going to show? How much does that that influx of hunting pressure? Because it happens like overnight. You know what, what is, what are they doing this population response to us, it's gotta be significant man because we just had a thing this year. We went to a place that only a couple of years ago when general and. And, and had a couple individuals say, does like out place change. Because people have been watching those turkeys for a decade, it is like they knew where they were, you know, I spent a lot of years of my life dealing with regulations. Well, if regulations on these very issues, and it's always a tough balance to try and balance the opportunity of making sure that people can get out there and hunt it, and understand the entry system to get into it because you got to think ahead and apply. And meets that deadline, which is well advanced the Turkey hunting season versus have an open entry make it easy for people to get in there and states struggle with this concept and try and balance those two so that we're not unnecessarily restricting people. But on the other hand, were not unnecessarily overharvesting the population or putting too much pressure on the population. I'm not even so much over harvest as much as the kind of pressure that goes in the behavioral changes that I talked about before with that game rolled. We divide the whole world into two things yet quality states in any got your opportunity stays. And it's exactly you're right. We do we do. And and you know what? It's tough because you don't want people to you. You want them to have opportunity to go in and take birds. And, and have that, that place of hunting if they didn't even apply for it. But on the other hand, you don't want to diminish the quality and some states have false reasons to we talked a little bit about that last night, which take on that. Well fall season tends to be a season to restrict the population pull it back. I mean, it's a is intended. Yes. Was intended agricultural interests. You know, we're the we're you open up those hunting seasons to fall hunting. Your, your game plan is to reduce the population and at one reduce it in the spring, that sort of thing. I don't understand like why in the fall, are you allowed to shoot hens? In states have false seasons. Like, once just kill me if you want to kill hence, why not kill him the spring. Well, the idea is that your spring seasons quality season that is not trying to restrict the population. And so we started spring hunting and have had spring, hunting, even as we restore populations that was one, the things that Turkey federation really did a good job on. They brought a lot of the science to the states so that you could introduce wild turkeys. Get that population expanding instill hunt it in the spring season because those birds are still those, you're not taking the Hans you're trying to time your season after the birds of have have bread and you're not disturbing those nests too much in that regard. And you could open up hunting early as you restoring those populations then use your fall seasons chill to reduce populations where you have overabundance in that population who is it? When you say like, oh, there's too many turkeys, who is saying that. Usually who says that are people that call in that have nuisance birds your, your local biologist will have people that will call in. And when I was a field biologist, I would have this at have people that would say, you know, I've got turkeys hanging around my property, the roosting over the cars at night, there they're out in the fields causing problems because they see him out in those particular fields, sometimes is just the presence of Turkey's or not used to it. They don't wanna have turkeys around there. Sometimes sir habituating those turkeys, they've got bird feeders up and supplemental. Feed out those birds or taking advantage of it. It's an education process to get him to realize pulling your feeder stopped putting out throwing out your chicken feet out in the yard and having the turkeys come into it also is a behavioral change. And then sometimes we do have too many birds in particular suburban settings. And that's where it tends to get the most tricky to manage is where you, you have this mix of. Of nice field habitats some small would lots and then a lot of homes in there and you can support pretty good bird populations and the you're not if it's an area where people are privately owned and they're not let people into hunt. Not getting much pressure. You can have some islands of really pretty dense populations. An adept point. You're gonna get someone who's, like just yeah, I don't want them. Get them out of here, depredation tags and Idaho. Turkey depredation Turkey depredation tags on. So if you're a landowner, and you say, you wanna have some turkeys taken off your place in the depredation system, than folks, who apply for those tags can get a phone call says, hey, there's landowners got a bunch of turkeys on their here's the number and they'd have to provide access if they're part of that program. And then you could dispatched out there to hunter he's yeah. Good. Good friend of mine got a call last year for a region. That is a difficult place to yet. You have to draw tagged to go over there and hunt birds, but he got a call for depredation over there, because, like, yeah, he's I got one standing on top of my car right now, come kill him. You looking for hunt property, a working ranch private lake house. Well, most real estate websites are not designed to help you find rural land lands of America's been helping people looking for rural real estate. We're in fifteen years lands of America's popular categories to guide, your search type in hunting land. You can type horse or a question properties, you type in ranches waterfront property, you can filter millions of listings by your preferred location, price and acreage with these filters you can easily and quickly narrow down your search to several properties and just a few seconds used the radius searched find hunting land or vacation cabin within one hour of your home. Save your properties for later or reach out to the owner, with a single click lands of America also has top tier brokers and agents that focus exclusively on rural real estate. You'll find a broker who can help you understand your market, the right time to buy and negotiate a great price. The best place to find rural land his lands of America. Find your dream land at lands of America dot com slash on. Are you looking for a way to save some extra money this summer start paying less interest on your credit card balances by refinancing with a credit card consolidation loan from light stream? It's an easy way to save hundreds of thousands of dollars and lower your interest. Rate, light stream offers credit card consolidation loans from five point nine five percent APR with auto-pay that's far lower than the average credit card interest rate over nineteen percent APR. Plus, they're absolutely no fees. And you can even get your money as soon as a day, you apply. Because light stream believes that people with good credit deserve a better loan experience. Just remind listeners apply now to get a special interest rate discount, the only way to get. This discount is to go to light stream dot com slash meat eater. That's L. I. G. H. T. S. T. R E, AM dot com slash meter subject to credit approval rate. Includes a point five percent. Auto pay discount, terms and conditions. Apply in offers are subject to change without notice. Visit light stream dot com slash meat eater. For more information. I want to get into some legal some stuff you guys do around lobbying and whatnot. Is that a dirty word lobbying? Congressional what he gets caught. What do you like to call it? We like to call it education, and advocacy advocacy. I wanna talk to you about that. What that world's like, but I want to ask a couple of things I what in your mind was very old. Male Turkey, and what's very old female Turkey. You know. Ten is an old bird in the wild. Now, you see domestic birds will get up people keep them there. Barring they're older than that. But, you know, show called kale's we can review. Yes. Show her about the bird, tell her about the bird from episode one of CAL's week in review, real quick. I mean they've oke Golder there's gotta Turkey. Yeah. This is a, a ways in albatross, still oldest known. Oldest known bird. Yeah. Yeah. And she's sixty eight and still rearing chicks or a check a year but was banded. Roughly five years of age. Yeah. Because they don't start laying until they're about five so pretty amazing. Yeah. Yeah. I think I'll little time. She spent on the crown. They think that she's covered how many miles in her life because I mean they go up in the air and they don't come down for long. Periods of time. I think this is a very conservative number when you look at all the other data that's out there, but three million miles on this one bird. Yeah, that's interesting. Delta nico. Week in review more hot. And so, you think between there's no Tom that lives ten no Tom's read not in hunted. Populations six would be like your mega. Oh, yeah. I mean, I'm talking about the really unusual situation out there because you asked, what's the oldest, you know, that's, that's probably not the oldest a really old. Oh, really old one. Yeah. If you get a bird, that's, you know, five, six years old, that's an old bird in the wild. I mean, especially if there's much in terms of hunting pressure on that particular bird. You know, you're, you're lucky, if you have very, many three-year-old birds in the population three and four year old birds in Texas that we got there, all old. Do you think they were three we all? Yeah. Three to four but scarred, think wounds, they'll think they're hunting those birds real hard out there. Maybe. No. But I just think just disease or bacterial infections and stuff, 'cause we had a couple birds with real puncture holes in them and old scars and scrap, and each other. Right. Well, it's a rough life out there. Yeah. It's a rough life. Let me no one, I heard somewhere that appalled so young Turkey, eat seventy five percent animal matter. They do a lot of protein in adult seventy five percent. Vegetable matter is that clean. I couldn't tell you that if it's that clean, but, you know, turkeys are omnivores so they handle their opportunistic and they're as adults, they. Do eat lot, more vegetative material. We know that those young birds those pulse really use protein, they grow really quickly. And so they need those high energy sources those high calorie sources to really put on the kind of growth that they put on because, you know, when you look at a Turkey, it doesn't take very long to get to the point where they are feathered out able to fly. So they grow really quickly as young birds like logged on lot approaching. Yeah, they go out and I mean those, those hens take him out, and they just, you know, snarf up, whatever insect life. They can find out there, Johnny questions. You want zapper with Yanni. No. I wanna come back to the DC stuff. We were about to get him before we get into that quick. Hey, what's up with type questions? No. Standi lead on. So in South Dakota. Male Neuharth ladies a Maleter tag allows you to shoot a Turkey with a visible beard or Spurs in the black hills. There's a lot of bearded hands. I shouldn't say a lot, but more than most place I've ever seen a dozen like in my years of hunting, there in the spring, I have twice shot bearded hands knowing that they were hands. Does that make me a bad person? No can shoot hand in spring. I would shoot a bearded head. Why is that different than a normal hand for you? It's not because I'd be I'd be against the begins the law, so only because it's legal. You're okay with it. Then it's now I like it. Fickle more complicated that if spring Turkey season. Well, here's the thing I have. Like I have. Most states forty eight or so states, I have a lot of. Faith in the wildlife managers. Okay. Forty seven forty eight states I have a lot of faith in the wildlife managers, where I would say if they were saying that we're going to open it up for hens. Most states that'd be like they probably know what they're talking about. This is probably okay. So if I knew that there was a hint like there's, there's a part of the state shoot heads in the spring. Yeah, three of them. So I'm like must be I'm gathering a lot of hands, because there's a lot of parts of the states where you can't there's some parts. We can't hunt turkeys. So they're having elastic model. And if in this little corner of the area they've determined that they wanna kill some heads in the spring. I would have faith that they were operating in the best interest of hunters. So in those places, yes, the bearded hand, I don't think that the American wild Turkey is going to live or die. Or thrive or not thrive. Based on the occurrence rate of hunters harvesting bearded hens, which are in anomaly. So if you were to see one of these, I've never had a bearded head in front of me with a shock on them a hand if I were to see one and get it. I don't think that, that that's gonna then mean that we're going to see this population wide decline in Turkey numbers, I always have a bit of guilt because I feel like I'm the this all the time twice this out all the time. So tell you tell me. Yes. Because like the, the idea of the tag is for you to shoot a male Turkey. Yeah. That's the spirit of the law, and I'm knowingly shooting a female Turkey which is legal to get a Turkey. I feel it's like if you've found a rainbow and there was like a little leprechaun and you stole his gold, it'd be like, sure. Never happens there. I was a took we cut back you off. So tell me more harm not individual choice. I mean you knew it was a bearded hand. Okay. That bird, I had in front of me last year and Oklahoma. I knew she was a hen, choose a legal target. I didn't take it is that why did I do it because I I couldn't believe her behavior. I had never seen a hand to a full strut like this, and be that aggressive doesn't account for why you didn't shoot it. Once you saw regular Turkey do a backflip. Yeah. That's true. But it was you know, I knew it was an egg layer. You know it was out there. I got more enjoyment out of watching her that day than I did in naming her that day behavior and laughing about it. We, well, we, we, we named her a pretty aggressive, female name, so she just wound up being too. She was scaring the Tom saw-. I mean, she was a really aggressive hand. So it was one of those situations where I got more joy out of that, with the people I was hunting with, then I would have by taken it and end in the scenario you saying, Spencer, I'm reading between what she's saying is because she wouldn't do it because it's wrong. Kind, you know, but I don't think we should shame one another on this. I mean, I it was it's okay, you, you could easily change my mind if you said, no, you shouldn't be doing that. You obviously feel that way. Or when asked the question that you had some trepidation about it. But I don't think is hunters we should ever criticize another hunter for taking a legal target. I used to see this all the time and deer hunting with people getting into it, and somebody during an antler season with tak- a buck, fawn. And they couldn't tell us a buck, fawn. They didn't. They just couldn't tell it from the head don't criticize him for doing it, it was legal. It's, it's ethical and the person didn't know it. So let's not chastise them for that. It's legal when you ask that person to get on board with something that you're asking them to get on board with some long term manager plan that maybe they don't even they don't they don't share the desire. That's right. They, they shot a perfectly legal target there. That was. The animal that is going to give them quality meat. They're gonna enjoy it. Don't ruin for and the same thing I would say with that we'd take it into a fact that on harvest when biologist make those recommendations. They know there's a certain percentage of bearded Tom's. It's so or bearded hens. It's small enough. It doesn't factor into a significant part of the population that's going to hurt the population. So it was perfectly legal. Go ahead and do it. And it's probably the, the cleanness indicator for someone who's starting off Turkey hunting to determine whether it's Tom or hand is that beard, the pick it up and see it and visualize it for folks are just getting started. They're not used to looking at all the heads and behavior cues and all the rest of it. Oh, it's one of the hardest things I remember struggling, so for at least two or three years, I'd have he's coming in close for ancient world, just all sudden, moving a million miles an hour and it spinning faster and your. You know, in your heart beat me years with could just never be like that. There's a town that's him right here on with the hunt with Maggie and Tracy ones, or I heard, you know, she's like, well, how do I know? I'm like, oh, you'll does no. About my white talk about this. I think we should touch on bag limits because, you know, the there's a difference between the face value of a bag limit and what the actual practical application of that. Bag limit is like the you can shoot four with no tags and Tennessee, but you can only kill one bird per day. That's right. So, you know, bag limits have have their overall season implications. But people need to realize that season length and the number of hunters are really the controlling force on it. When you put bag limits on, for instance, I'll just use South Carolina, because it's been hotly debated and their legislature lately, they wanted to go from a few years ago. They they moved their season. They provide a longer season with that they cut the bag limit from five to three will it really didn't do a whole lot because there's a lot of turn. There aren't very many people that were shooting five turkeys, and so. You're only nip and back the population of hunters for very small percentage of those folks that were successful enough ever year to take five birds and something that I think about, also is the, the bird per day rule because it's definitely happened to me where if it were legal to fill those tags in, when one morning you would do it. I would have had the opportunity, but because they got to wait to the next day to then have a valid Turkey tag again. I had no opportunity, no opportunity. No fraternity. Sometimes the birds, don't cooperate. Sometimes you can't go out. You've got to actually go work for a living. You know it could be that it was a Sunday Monday. It could be the weather conditions are different and those birds just about the time you think you've got him pattern and figured out. They prove you wrong every time. Yeah. So you. Trying to I'm trying to track what you're saying. So you instinctively don't see a problem or do see a problem with the state saying, like oh yeah. Five turkeys, no problem. It depends on the state where their population is. But I do think a lot of times when you have populations that when the biologists are setting up season recommendations LA Times in some states, legislature that sets the season's not the agency itself, it, it varies by state. But a lot of times what you'll see is legislators wind trade off days and the knit back the bag limit to compensate so okay. The bio saying that, that doesn't work like that doesn't work that. Well, I mean it just doesn't. It's not a trade off your season length the number of hunters are going to have a far greater impact on your harvest than what your bag limits going to be so track. And what you're saying, okay, go soon now. So that's where they really need to listen, the biologist and realized that it isn't for. You can't necessarily compensate for a super long season because you might be harvesting them before the birds are a really fully bread. You might be disrupting that breeding, and number two, having that really long season in a high punt hot hunting population, even if you cut back that bag limit. There's such a small percentage of people that, that can put it together take, you know, five birds, or whatever the maximum is that you're really not having that much impact on restricting that season at that point. So you could have the bag limit and double the season. And you're gonna have a lot more dead birds. You got it. I mean I was just looking at fishing regulations this morning. And it's just it's really hard to. Put reality on those regulations. I'm like, oh, man. I really wanna put a bunch of fish in the freezer. Oh, great. Here's a reservoir that I can put thirty 'Croppy per day in I'm never caught a crappy in my life. The odds of me put in three to grow up in the boat or pretty bad. You know. Yeah. Look at, like if I'm of fifty a day, there's no closed season. Flowed. You know they. Thousands of crappy you talked earlier you mentioned with big game hunting. You have the quality states in you have the opportunity state. Okay. That usually is reflective. When you go back and look at how many people are licensed hunter, within that state usually it is tied to, if you have a smaller hunting population or a smaller population in your state per the population of animals out there that you're hunting, you're going to be able to support a quality regulations and seasons that will because you're not exploiting that population as greatly, as you would with a population that has a lot more hunters. And, and they go out there and they take a lot more animals Michigan's perfect example. When I started my career we had, we had damn near million licensed firearm, hunters, you don't grow old deer in that scenario. No, no. Can I get one more question before move on? Yeah. Yeah. So someplace like the Great Plains, were you have potential for all three species of Turkey's Rios, Mariam's Easterns is our species. Part of the question is there any concern for hybridization like long term? There is like having mutt. Turkeys could potentially be a problem. Well, I won't say concern, but does does hybridization happen. Absolutely right. But is there any concern about it happening or like? Places that are like in Nebraska, or whatever they're like you could kill Miriam's are- on eastern on all the same farms, come on. No. But that's not what he's getting that if there was any like worry that, that could negatively affect her key populations that all of that would be bad for, if all of a sudden white tails and mule do reges hybrid icing all the time. That'd be a bad deal. Those are two distinct species. I know what most people consider these like mistakes varieties. They're not even like legitimately subspecies, so, yes. And no. And I'll give you an example in the waterfall front. Okay. I'll take it away. And when we had, when we dealt with geese populations up on the tunder we head these subspecies, and we tried to manage, it by subspecies in the flyway so that you had James, Bay birds and Mississippi valley, birds, and we tried to keep as you know, distinct populations what you mean. What you mean candidates. Yeah. Back when he thought we had twenty some kinds of candidates. That's right. And they're breeding up on the grounds so we had the we didn't geographically and we tried to just harvest and maintain those separate populations of those geese within it, and everybody was concerned when one population started decline. Well hat loaned up happening as we started use DNA to, to sample. Those populations we realize there's a lot more inbreeding going on there. And there's a lot more of the Matz. You know that really head genetic pools, and it wasn't as clean, geographically as we really thought so taking into turkeys. Yes, you wanna keep very ability in your population, because more variability, you have the more ability, you have that population to adapt to changes you know, they're going to have just like diversity in any population. The more diversity, you have in your going to have some survivors that stand, a better chance than if it's a really homogenous population. So, yeah, you wanna maintain that? But there's always going to be. Some interbreeding of those birds. And with that comes different diversity with it also. So yes, we don't want them all to be cross breads or hybrids between those populations. But on the other hand, you're always going to get some variability because of the range and where they're located. They're going to breed. What I'm getting at here, Spencer. There's no okay, take the eastern Turkey and the Osceola Turkey. We like draw some arbitrary lion across the state. Right. But they just bleed into one another, I understand. But the national wild Turkey foundation draws that line excuse me federation jaws that line in the record books. You guys define them as the different subspecies. We do, and we know it's, it's how people like to classify and go out and gather the different birds. But he don't forget. There has been interbreeding wildlife. I mean and and there's mixing of it over time. And sometimes we like to look at a point at time and think it's clean and neat and tidy and it's just not it's messy, but what it comes to the different types of Turkey's, Rios, Miriam's, Gould's Easterns Osceola, that's everybody. Right. How like with current thinking in our understanding taxonomy changes all the time with current thinking, like how the Jews are those designations? And how is it not just that there's this thing? It's the wild Turkey and there are slight color variations throughout the country. Their distinct enough that they're distinct subspecies there with it. But you're always gonna have some that interbreeding and part of it man is created to 'cause we've moved these birds around with that. So you've got populations where the habitat type might have looked like it was more attractive to various species, and we tried it, but we did that with other species around the country to it's not just Turkey's you know as we restored wildlife populations in this country, we moved wildlife. Heck we moved it from Europe and Asia over here and we put it out and landscapes. And when it did well, it, you know, it did well, and so the same thing is true with these restoration efforts guy was a thing that made me the keys be not fully understanding this subspecies singer, too. Meaning half the time I feel like it's just the different colors in different places, and half time, like okay was like a legitimate difference is a guy in Oregon was telling me when they were trying to get wild turkeys established in some areas of Oregon. They tried Miriam's and couldn't get him to stick. And put reels in their NATO off. Now ask my all what happened. And he had mentioned something about the I can't remember that one of them has a higher likelihood of having a brood. Just fit in that characteristic and was more successful. And he felt that it was the personnel saw new felt that it was the that was the thing was were they took the birds from. And one couldn't figure it out and one figure in the other one figured it out. Yeah. So I mean, there are things genetically different. I mean, look at what we tried to do with Turkey restorations before we really hit the technology to trap live birds. We tried to use these birds that were raised in game farms. I mean Pennsylvania Michigan birds for populations. And several where we head turkeys back in the fifties came from game farm. So then they were LeBron's broad breasted turkeys, but they were not genetically bred for real good survival in a wild environment those populations gone out there, and they maintained, but they were always, they never grew. They never did really well when we brought in live birds released him in adjoining habitats took off and did really well. So there's genetic vary. The ability in these populations. And, and with that sometimes fits different climatic situations. You know, micro climates with the habitat, is there and the rest of it. Good. Good. No more. Like basic Turkey, trivia, I got a thousand basic Turkey treating of my questions or most of them. So most most of them are on answerable. Okay. We did have we did want to ask about the roost thing we didn't know about Reuss that in reference to that study that we were in this study that really surprised me. It was on southern Colorado. I believe so Miriam Turkey's southern Colorado from back in the nineties, if I'm not mistaken. It was like that. On average. A Turkey, only had a thirteen percent like a Turkey, only had thirteen percent chance that he would Reuss in the same tree two nights in a row. And on average would Reuss a thousand yards away from where he roosted the night before. And that the first number decreased during Turkey season in the second number increased during Turkey season, which would lead you to believe they really responded to the fact that every day when they wake up, there's some guy down there trying to call him and then shoot them. He's like man tomorrow night. I'm Rusen way far away from here. Yeah. Probably depends on how many hens are in the area and all the rest of it. You know, when you hunt the same property over and over again. It winds up being one of those situations where you learn that, we're there, you think about Reuss and traditional Reuss and stuff where they'll, they'll come in there and roost, one night. And then there won't be any birds or the next night, or they'll be half as many birds. And then the third night there's nobody there. And you wonder if it's you or whether those birds just move around, I personally, think those birds move around, and they, they're, they're opportunist, so they know they make good use daylight hours. They, you know, they're kind of like we are that get about get up about the same time, even the days are getting longer. They get up about the same time every day, they, they go out they forged. They're looking for hands there breeding. And then when it gets starts to be getting close to sunset. They're looking for the place to go to bed. Now, every few days are coming back in and having kind of in the same vicinity if there if. Habitat set way. I mean when you look at those home ranges, in terms of how far they stray and stuff is going to depend on the habitat, qualities can depend on how many are there in terms of the role, how far in east to Rome and in how frequently he's coming back to the general vicinity. And then also with that forest type is going to be for whether there are a lot of trees. I'm sure they're river corridor there. Cottonwoods down in the south west, where they get hit up and roosted pretty routinely because there just aren't that many Reuss trees. And there are other would lots and places in forested habitats where there are a lot of really significant roots trees that are going to have good growth patterns turkeys are comfortable on them. They're big enough. They're high enough that they're comfortable. They're that they're going to use. They have lots of choices so they're, they're opportunistic. They're going to go out not frequent the same particular Reuss tree, all that often, what's a long walk for for a male Turk in one day. It depends on the habitat and where it is. I mean. Oh, well. Notre Ke's around, you know, I it, it it varies from area to area across the with a particular study you're talking about, they were talking about a thousand meters was about the typical what they did. How far would he just in his travels throughout the day? How many miles would he put on? I mean at that point you're looking at most turkeys. There's fairly small those turkeys in that particular study you're looking at during the breeding season, they were anywhere from forty to eighty acres when you when you factored out the hector's translate it back in. So those aren't big areas. Like he's been in his day in that type little area. Yeah. I mean, it's a fairly area so it's really but that was probably an area. We had some decent habitat. They had some hens around and the rest of it. In other areas, you know, you can see it, so you've got several sections, that those birds are moving around. So they're moving several miles to get around in those areas, because there's not much cover to get to roost trees at night. They gotta move further. So some of those really wide open landscapes was Birger moving further on a daily basis. And then other places where they're staying really tight in. They've got everything they need in pretty short areas, and there's competition if they move into other habitats. Man, those spending their whole day in forty acres makes you think just good. You just sit down. Oh, yeah. And those situations where two good little trails or roads come together, and just always say Cherokee Hon, if you spend a few days on a property, and you're looking at tracks, like you know what we could have done just said that pick a spot at an intersection of two trails and say, you know what you guys do your thing. Underspend spend my three days sitting right here. Not gonna do anything, I'm not gonna make any noise of here at sunup and I'll wait until sundown and you'd probably a very effective Turkey honor just to bide your time. You know, and the other thing that I that Turkey, hunters need to remember as a lot of folks go out. They get out there real early in the morning before the birds get off the. Roost, you know they're going out way before daylight. And then they're coming in a couple of hours after sunrise, you know, the working for a couple of hours, and that's a great time to be out in the Turkey woods. You know, when it's eight nine o'clock ten o'clock in the morning, that's a time where you to sit tight and let all those other Yahoos in the vicinity go to work do what they're gonna do. But about their time, they're going back and make their money. That's right. Gets her Cup of coffee. Whatever they're going to do you need to sit tight at that point because those birds move in response to it. It's a hot Turkey hunt. Vecchione your box makes it easy to get high quality meat that you can trust every month. They deliver one hundred percent grass fed and finished beef free range organic chicken heritage breed, pork and wild Alaskan salmon directly to your door with free shipping this month. They're offering new members free bacon for life. Butcher box dot com believes in a healthier food system where everyone has access to meet the way nature intended free of antibiotics, and added hormones and humanely raised on open pastures butcher box dot com, bake and his source from heritage breed, pigs, and his uncured nitrate free and sugar free. Choose from four curated boxes or customize your own box. You get exactly what you and your family loves to eat. Each box comes with at least nine to eleven pounds of meat frozen at the peak of freshness and individual vacuum. Sealed packs to get the free bacon for the life of your subscription. Plus twenty bucks off. Go to butcher box dot com slash meat eater. Or. Enter the promo code meter at checkout. That's a pack of bacon for free every single box for the life of your subscription. Plus twenty bucks off at butcher box dot com slash meat eater or by using the promo code meter. Ever out hunting big game on the same weekend as well the big game. If so, you need the dish, tailgater pro portable satellite antenna, bond this deal. Let you watch live sports, news and weather outdoors on TV not on a phone. An order thinking portable satellite antenna. Sounds complicated. Right. Nope. You just powered up and let the automatic signal finder do all the work. It's rugged weatherproof weighs less than a can of beans. Plus you only pay for the month you use. No hassles contracts. No credit checks. Even comes with the world's smallest HD satellite receiver with built in Sirius XM Radio Net flicks. We can watch meeting of TV show and other apps. And you don't need to be a dish subscriber at home. Just think about it. If you go camping with family members who are like do love camping, but I can't stand being out of touch. I can't stand missing the things that I need to watch. I want to watch. Here's your solution. Call eight three three TV for RV or visit dish, outdoors dot com and use the promo code pro fifty p r o five zero at checkout to get fifty bucks off your tail gator. Pro restrictions may apply. You spend a lot like your organization spends time on government policy. We do was that look like what did you go down there? You're like we need more turkeys. The federal level we don't do that. Because management of wild turkeys falls to the state authorities, so we do that, you know, we, we have through our chapter system. We have a key when it comes to regulation seasons funding for research those types of things, go to a state and say, we feel that you're going about this the wrong way. Yeah. Most the time we're working with the agency along with it through helping to fund research to help move forward. Good science on it. So we like to work hand hand in hand with the state agency. We're partners with most of them, and we actually have a technical committee that was formed before we even had biological staff with Turkey federation, that's made up of Turkey specialists from the state agencies and are fairly agencies and we call that the technical committee, they meet a number of times during the year. And we share that, that good scientific information. We try and come in and help them so that they are we can support good management. And typically, it's when agency is getting pressure doing something legislatively, that's going to be detrimental that population or restrict hunting too much at the federal level, we try, and we try to narrower focus so we can really be effective on the areas where we have good expertise. We really work on forest management issues. So a lot of the, the work that's been done to try and get more active forest management and try and correct this fire suppression funding problem. We have in the country, we've been very active on that. I've gone fire suppression funding, you know, saying, you want more money to suppress. I'm saying the forest US forest service over the course of time because we've had, we've had we've not kept up with growth cycles, and we have more and more fuel loads building up international force now burning enough, not cutting enough, we've got older four, so we're, we're getting a build up on it. And with that we're having these large wildfires that are currying, and it's we've also come off a period. Of. Unusually high rainfall now we're heading into a more drought type situation. And then you've got disease. I mean we've got trees Diane off. We've got some climatic changes going, but all that's culminating in these mega forest fires at were seeing. And so we have the forest service has has moved a lot head to move a lot of their funding to, to fight those forest fires and put in specialist and fire suppression to try and combat and control. Those fires, and as a result, they have less funding available to do the proactive management to keep our forest healthy. So we've been working with congress and. To get the money in the right direction the money in the right direction and also take away some of the barriers that there are, they're always going to be people that don't like the idea of active forest management. They wanna leave it alone. But it has you know, we're not living in the situation anymore where we can just let it go and it's we're gonna like the results of it. When you're not leave me alone. One we do fires when we put out fires. No. You're not leaving alone. You gotta make up for you know what I mean. You'd like you've already entered into sort of a false pretense on it. That's right. I mean we have as humans we have taken away a lot of these, these fire driven habitats, we have taken away the cycle of fire on it. That occurred so regularly kept those fuel loads, down, low, it would burn the pine needles and the dead Woody, vegetation. So you didn't have it ladder up. You didn't have it climb up those trees and crown, and then just go on these huge fires at burn everything down. And when you have these really hot extensive for. Forest fires. It actually burns, a top soil off the ground. And then the problem is afterwards, you have rain, you have you have the, the, the soil gives Lucy of mudslides and tremendous, you know, siltation in your streams, your watercourses, a result of it, and it takes it takes decades to restore those, those landscapes to that, you know, you can see areas in my home state of Michigan, where I was you can see places where those forest fires after the cut down the white, pine forest northern Michigan. They had fires at literally swept across the peninsula in with that. Because it all that down vegetative material that had died off, and it burned that topsoil and places where we are just now starting to see forest cover back come back into it. It wasn't capable of growing anything, but lichen for decades and decades and decades pushed ego fire. Oh my God. It's a horrific story, man. Yeah. I mean. Some of these job into wells getting bullied live in their own wells and easy fires families getting wiped out. I mean you know, in those Diana boats. Yep. And so I mean it's. It's we have altered landscapes. So we've got to deal with the fact that we don't at this point in time on our on our forest. We're not keeping up with the gross cycles, and we're getting these fuel buildups and either have to become much more engaged in actively manage those us or we gotta be willing to suffer the consequences in part of the consequences. We have people actually building in some of those force also. So you've got homes large homes, sometimes very expensive homes. Right within it, and there, it takes resources to go out and try and put in fire lines and protect those resources and get people evacuated and get them out of those communities that are built right in fire prone landscapes. It sucks kind of wildlife worked on. That's right. So I'd rather put the money towards the proactive management and get our forest so that they, they don't have these build up fuel loads, that we manage them more actively with prescribed fire, and cutting Regina regimes and then that we also need to think about some of these places how much how much were as a public invest in people that want to build large homes in, in holdings in some of that problem. I mean look at the risk right in high risk your fancy home in a spot that nobody built there for reason. That's right. You put a lot of people at risk. When you ask some fire crew full eighteen year old kids go on there and try to save it. Yeah. It's and you know, it's heartbreaking for people, you know, you see whole communities wiped out. So, anyhow, we've been working with congress on that. And, and there are some folks that feel very strongly in, we've used a lot of our, our laws that are on the books right now that were intended to give. The public input into planning processes and, and bring challenges against government when they are unduly negatively impacted, but we've got groups and individuals or using those laws to really slow down the active management process, I'll comment. Yeah. Bring lawsuits, primarily it's lawsuits bringing lawsuits against for service on these particular cases in over than your processes get so expensive. You're spending all your time and energy on the planning process. You're not ever getting to the management and then you're having to pay even more because of the result of lack of management. I was kind of like child is sort of naive idea that the best thing for all forces all, let it go even though you're not even talking about audibles often the case you're not talking about native old growth as you're talking about disturbed. Equal citizens are already disturbed from the start. That's right. And so it's a philosophical difference. It's very expensive way to iron out that phil-, philosophical difference. Tobacco oversight. And you're talking about your, your state involvement federal involvement. Don't name any names or please but dot you'll want to. Do you encounter states that seemed to be very receptive to your professional input in states that kind of run a course where you're like that's not the way to do this, and they don't want to really listen? Or do you guys get pretty good bye? And from state to say, we have pretty good buying from state wildlife agencies. We couple things that, you know, having run a state agency before we don't come in and TRAN lecture states how they should do things, especially there are regional differences in cultural differences on how populations like to run their natural resources and we try and be respectful of that. We also try and be proactive in helping the state agencies, if they have needs if they have scientific needs of they've got questions, if they want to learn from other states on stuff of sharing that information behind in a safe environment that they can get hold of it. And have those conversations and really try it out. And and, and know what they're getting into as they get into those discussions before they come real public because at that point in time, you're, you know, it's tough to be wrong on things. Once you've gone out publicly. Fought pages or whatever. Yes. Right. So we try and take a proactive approach on that, you know, there are other issues we work on a national level. We try and maintain making sure that there's really good access to our public lands out there, making sure that regulations. Unnecessarily hamper the ability to go out and hunt. Those, those lands are are. We're not putting those in place. Try and get the mixture that the federal agencies are respective of people that want to go out and use firearms on those lands and hunt. Those lands ficials lands hike those lands Russo involving this stuff. Yeah. We take a very active role in it. That's one of the criticisms have of the conservation space generals, I feel like you have you'll lot of groups who focus very heavily on hunting rights, and you have groups that focus heavy on habitat and wildlife. And I feel like in a lot of cases I think those two things should be melded together a little bit better. I do too. In fact, as a whole. Ballistic package. It's why mantha Turkey federation show on to be honest with you, when I looked, and I worked with a lot of different conservation groups out there. And there's a lot of really good ones. But I agree with you. I think it takes both habitat management, and it takes people using that landscape carrying about it and being those future conservationists to really get the full picture. We can't pull people out of the equation. You just can't we're part of the ecosystem, we're part of the influence on that landscape. And I want to always to be segments and a big chunk of our population that really understands what's going on, in those landscapes and advocates for wise management in also realizes that are wildlife, or renewable resources we don't have to. I mean, most populations they have high turnover and in hunting can be compensatory. It replaces other types of mortality out there, and I just as soon have people use that, that food source. That's out there and have it is and value it as a way to get part of their protein. And what they like to enjoy and be connected to that landscape and understand it on the federal level. In DC. What are some of the? What are some of the changes you've seen going on in DC? Do you do you find that people is it like you're enjoying? A lot of people who sort of instinctively understand the concerns, you have is that landscape changing a little bit because it harder to explain your mission. It depends. I see. There's glimmers of hope I mean, we have in the house, we have congressman westerman, who is a forester in, he's really been the lead on law this forest initiative, so it's been helpful to be able to work with him and his staff because he's a train forestry gets it. And he's willing to work with leadership and and and move forward. Good regulations good changes that are going to I think help move us forward. There isn't necessarily, I will say, Washington DC since I've been working in it. It's got more contentious more polarized. It's tough with some of the big issues. Our country is facing right now. A lot of the issues on conservation. In some of the challenges, we have you the wind up getting positions, and polarization, where people are talking, they're not talking about ways that they can work together to achieve getting there, but they're taking positions. And whenever that happens were it's. All or nothing. Or we don't. This is off the table. We can't even talk about it, and that doesn't lead us down the path of really great decision making. But it takes people sitting around the table and by has to come about with bipartisan support. It has to be biking, Cambril can't be just a son. It can't be just the house has to be both in order to get it into law. So it's, it's tough, and we have people more and more people in congress who have not. I mean, we're as a population in general, and congress represents at population, we are now several generations off the farm and ranch by and large Jewish, and fewer people are living in those rural environments, living off the land in so their direct knowledge and understanding of those landscapes is impacted by that I always tell people it's really easy to understand how detach, these folks are from some of these outdoor situations. All you gotta do is. Go walk around the tunnels in DC. You're at those, those folks working on the hill, don't even get to go outside. Yeah. It's an you know, and you can't blame them. It's not that they don't wanna know they just don't know. So some of the most effective things you can do, sometimes they're getting getting people out to see stuff in the field to actually do tours of active management to see that. So those are not hearing it from people at saying, oh, my gosh, is timber cut was just devastating. Look at looks terrible. Go out and look it a forest that was hasn't been thin. Look when that has been thin. Look at one that, that see an area, that's been burned over and see some of the degradation occurs from that forest fire as opposed to a timber cut and, and have that real life knowledge, so that when they're talking about these issues, they can visualize that. And it makes more sense to them. Yeah. I think that you're also asking. I mean you kind of asking a lot of people to understand all the complexities and nuance that are involved in, in landscape management were there. There's not a lot of hard and fast rules to live by I think that we have a cabin up in southeast Alaska, and they're. There's a very legitimate argument. And I feel this way personally where I think we're cutting old growth timber. So, but that's a very different thing where you're Tom ball, these coastal, like coastal rainforest areas that have five and six hundred year old trees, that you're not gonna like go back to that. You're not going to go back to that. So it's like how could I say, oh, I don't want them. I, I want a slowdown curtail. I'd love to see the end of old growth timber harvest on public lands, and southeast Alaska. But how can I then turn around and say in northern Michigan? We need to be cutting. Yeah, because people are like, oh, how could both things be true? And it's like because it's just it's a complicated planet. It is complicated. And, and it gets to excess ability it gets to what those, those species, are it gets to how quickly it regenerates with those soil types are what's already happened. And there is, you know, and that's the thing that we talk in generalities, when we it, it, be we try and simplify the system for discussion sake. And in that simplification you lose some of the nuance with became logging as bad. Yep. People. Love absolutes. Right. Because it's like we'll tell me what the problem as logging bad got it was next. Amazing all gist. You're like, well, actually there's a myriad of problems. I don't have time for that. Yeah. Yeah. That anti logging campaign, you know that we all grew up with it. Must've been like the eighties. I'm guessing. Right. That must've been when the spotted owl, the spotted owls. It was the late eighties early nineties early nineties. I think but either way, I mean, it took me a while into adulthood to sort of have my own personal, you know enlightenment about logging to be like, oh, yeah. It's not always bad, because that was just pounded into my head through whatever channels. My parents never told me that logging was bad, but the marketing of that, you know, got into my head. Well, and I mean smokey, the bear is another one of those campaigns it's been highly successful to the point where people don't like prescribed fire that much because they have a fire is bad. Cal smokey. The bear lies to me. She wouldn't do that seems like a straightforward fellow. She's like a straight shooter. All smoky. Okay. Per you'd mentioned that you, you wanted to discuss personal goals for mentoring and new hunter. Well, I think we should all have personal goals. So look at all of you tell us about your personal goals so well I mean we have a new pledge going on with her corporate sponsors right now. Trying to get everyone of our members to make a personal commitment that they'll at least mentor one new hunter every year. Awesome. Well and so and you know we ask them sign a pledge form. We ask them to report back on that pledge form with us. Good. All right. Spencer, not this year yet lesser yet. I don't know about last year either. How about your four? Yes, good possibly last year. Definitely the year before. Yes. And it wasn't just 'cause you met your wife or something. Now take an old college roommate. First time. Good stuff. I'd like to brag the last year I do as well. My neighbor took him out hunting. First time. Yanni tearing it up on the pledge. Yeah. We need to give him a retroactive. Well. Actual sheet. It's an actual sheet. We ask them sign it. Write their name down on it. We kicked it off at our annual convention this year. And we are trying to get everyone of our members to do that, because that's what's going to take. I mean, when you look at the demographics of hunters in this country, we're going to see a pretty start stark decline with the baby boomers as they start to age out of hunting. And if we don't start getting other folks to replace that and everybody loves to do the kids programs and we're one of them. We have a really robust Jake's program. We've done it for years. You love it. But those kids aren't going to grow up fast enough to replace the baby boomer's, we've got to get those adult hunters out there. We've got to get the twentysomethings that either weren't exposed to it or or didn't do it enough to make it part of their lifestyle. We've got to get them to feel welcome and that something that they wanna do and enjoy the lifestyle and, and think of themselves as hunters, there's going to be somebody listening, probably more than probably ten percent. Maybe I don't know a bunch of people. Listen, they're going to say that ain't true not losing any hunters show me, one person that can say, there's less hunters, where I hunt now than there was ten years ago, which is really good. Interesting point. It is about it. You can't you can't at all. It's like oh yeah. Right hunt. You guys everywhere now I go there. No one's around. It's just turkeys gobbling every which way Elkin I did one it run into one guy in Colorado. It's been a few years now maybe five seven years ago. But he did say that. He notice it because they hunted very dense forest and he felt like those less camps along this road. This force wrote used to camp and that he felt like a lot of success was due to more guys in the woods back in the day, moving more animals around and now they didn't have that. And there was like success. And he did complain about having less people out there. But that's interesting that being said, I wonder sometimes if it's not a western thing, right? We hunt big Western Open, vast landscapes. We can see a lot more. So we see more people. Plus more people are people. The people that are, are honing are more inclined. There's a greater likelihood that they are hunting, multiple states and traveling around. That's true. That's true to you like use habits change. And then you have a lot of states that aren't seeing declines. Then you go to these states. These, you'll say Michigan Pennsylvania, and you're seeing declines, you're not experiencing Wyoming, Idaho. That's true. There is changing. I mean and it has changed over time. But overall the license number of licensed honors as a whole declining through the federal surveys. Do you find it more? Like, maybe where you guys are in the southeast. Yeah. I think the eastern United States is seeing it faster than the western United States. And it varies by state. Some states are seeing nice, you know, part of it is populations of those states also, you know, I happened to be from state in terms of Michigan that we lost overall population when lost most two million people during the economic downturn. What really? Yeah. So one from ten years ago. Yeah, so miss you came out of that with fewer citizens it did. Wow. A lot fewer. Yeah. And so as a result of that you lost hunters as part of that also. So go. Sunbelt rawal all over there, like do run the Rostov his place called the sunbelt. You have other states that are seeing population gains, and with that changing demographics in those particular states. And in sometimes with eight you're seeing increase in hunters. And sometimes you're seeing a decrease in hunters, so it's, you know it changes around the country. But overall the total number of hunters and the age of hunters is getting older every single year which means you've got no bottom of the population of hunters coming into the scenario go out with your point on you're going to make a point ten percent of the people are going to well, no. That was it. They're just going to say how can that? How can that be other? You're gonna extend that to like the perspective of why in the world no explored. What role would you ever even suggest the desire to have more hunters like that makes no sense? Right. Why would you want more people screwing up your hunt, which is also the gym? It. Thing to say, oh, yeah. We're our own worst enemy when it comes to that. Yeah. We don't. I mean. We're all guilty of it. Not my spot. You don't. Yeah. Especially coming out from a Turkey hundred Turkey on where he gets shot. Well, and we've all been there where you're out, you go out, you set up that morning you've got that perfect place. And there's somebody else calling. Yeah. We haunted some public land in Missouri, last spring, nanjiani did. And when you heard a gobble instead of like wanting to gobble gobble to keep goblin year to gobble. You're please shut up. Please shut up three. No matter what pretty soon. It's like here car door on some ridge. Like the race is on right? Right. So, but it is, I mean if we've got a window of time here, that is pretty short that we've got to replace those baby boomers, which are the biggest bubble of licensed hunters in the country right now, they're parents, hunting participation was so high for their parents. That's right. So as much as it hurts go out and mentor somebody. That's right. And don't take helps don't pick anybody. That's less than twenty years of age. Australia executive hung rail spot. I think I think that is a point that shouldn't be glossed over is, is there is no set age for a first time hundred. There's not and you know, it the cool part of it is, you can take people out that might have hundreds, our entire life who have wanted to go hunting. Or maybe the only even recognize they wanted to go hunting, but they go out and enjoy it and opens up a whole new world for them. But, you know, the other part of it is stick with them. I it takes more than one hunting experience it. You know, it's intimidating to try and figure out what kind of a quick that you need and, and how it's fun to go out with somebody who's all done all the research and scoping and loans, you're there and takes you out there and, and calls in a bird or whatever you're hunting species is and you get a chance to go out and be part of it. It's another. Then go out and be self sufficient, so you gotta stick with them to be there that mentor that tells them. Okay. You want to go out and get a firearm, here's. Here are some recommendations go with you. If you wanna go talk to the person at the at the gun store, or here's, here's what I recommend for some basic equipment, or, you know, here so, and so that also hunts, maybe you wanna link up with them because I'm going to be gone next month, but maybe you'd like to go hunt with them because we know it takes social that social network. You guys have it because you, you live it every day, but for other folks, as we become more mobile as a population trying to link up with other people in our communities who share that same lifestyle. It's we're not. We don't join clubs anymore. We don't join conservation clubs and some of that stuff. So in and I, you know, I hope they do I hope I'll give a plug for national wild Turkey federation. I you know. That if you move to a new community, or if you just a part of a community, and you wanna meet people that hunter and Canadian induce you to it go join the local chapter chapter, the national Turkey federation go. That's the hot tip. I've been giving people because we, we do live shows we hear it. We talked a bunch of people, and so what's the best tip for getting involved, one hundred two years and haven't seen anything yet. And I'm like I didn't do this because everyone's different. Like I just wrote like very immersed in it was like, what I would do now that realize how things work is I would get involved, volunteering with the conservation group, that's right in your area because you're going to get in there and start doing stuff and people are going to feel sorry for you. They're gonna make front. You're gonna make friends and and get involved in activities through social interactions. And through organized events says the other part of those people little drunk and he'd be like in prison. They'll say something like I haven't been in there myself, but I have a good feeling. That if you tried that spot, those kind of conversations you do and fell a might best, the sentence, you're looking for well, and the other part of this helps motivate you to get out there. You know, when you you're socializing talking about it. Somebody has you over for, you know, for venison dinner afterwards. You're more inclined as you get immersed in lifestyle to remember how much you enjoy it and make that effort to get out. Do some rough math in my head. I feel you need to have the mentor. Oh, 'cause you say in one person every year at least one. Yeah. Because I think that it takes about four to have one stick, just looking at my own set of experiences. You're probably right. Everyone. I've never had someone be like I wish I hadn't done that there is. I really like very informative and really kind of changed my perspective on things. Glad I did it. But that doesn't mean that they're gonna then start. You know, go off on their start finding spas. We've been one of the things that we've been doing on these, we've tried to move away from. One and done events with us what we call them where you come in. You take them out for a hunt, and then you're done. That's it where we try and work with other conservation organizations. So we, we teach them the life skills, they learn how to hunt safely. Get hunter safety move through go out on a hunt. Try several different hunts. What we ideally would like to do as move people through that system. So then they can become mentors to other folks, but it takes having them have exposure in meeting, different people and having those different experiences multiple times to really start thinking themselves of hunters and getting the confidence to go out on their own. Or take somebody else out who hasn't hunted before. So Jane, you can't let those assumptions lie. Either I if you are successful to the point of having a bird or a buck, on the ground, you can't just be like cool. Well, take that the processor, you're successful. Good job a show him. What to do with meat too, is a big deal. Thank you. Got to check the freezer, make sure they're using it if not yell at him. Yes, exactly. Humiliate them in front of their Franklin's. Well. Insurance, all you get more hunters humiliate a man. Got any final thoughts, you want to wedge in their Cal? I know I think wearing a hat and a Brian patch. Well, you know, you got a tiny little head and only certain hats fit me. So I got to stick with them. We'll you get one St. and you stand by it. Yeah, yeah. No, man. I think we covered a lot of a lot of good stuff. Thanks coming out, and my pleasure love love here and all the good info. What's a lifetime membership cost at the old Turkey federation, lifetime, membership, you can an annual membership is thirty five dollars. Sponsorship is to fifty and then we stack membership so you can continue to be lifetime. Memberships, not a once lump sum. Lifetime membership thing. Now I mean you can do that. But typically, what we do is we like to get people back every single year and continue shedder, someone buying in once then going, that's right, because we want to have we want you to be active with us. I mean, that's one of the things with national wild Turkey federation, we have. So we have a pretty high percentage of folks that not only are members but our volunteer, so they, they come in. They put in learn to hunt workshops, they go out there and do the women in the outdoors events. It do the Jake's events do the Willens events to go out and do habitat work or they work at the capitol in their respective states. And so in that is what's so special about it. Because those people are really engaged coming out, so Kansas, like, cut a check. And then go van is for the rest of you can. Really? Heavy come back and be more. The strangest thing you've heard of a Turkey eat. Strangest thing a 'cause they I mean they eat just about anything strangest Cl or contender. I don't know that I can think of something that's really strange. Would have you seen that that'd be on the lookout for that? Well in Colonel Tom Kelly's attendance Liege, and he talks about watching them out eating crayfish from underwater. That's interesting. That's true. That's true. I've heard a number of people bring that up. I've seen Deary fish now. That's pretty weird waiting in an eating ale. Lives footage of a deer eating baby birds out of a nest. Yeah. It was really changes you how you feel about. Dear. That's true. I mean watching watching a Turkey swallow a snake is rather interesting after the snakes they get really excited. Yeah, they do. Yeah. Seem footage that we're a Turkey standing out field beating the snake to death within a back and forth. Trying to kill it and he'd been. She gets it. Yeah. And then gulping it down Yanni computers. You know what you're clear should be should have concluded question where you say what's the strangest wave ever heard of Turkey dying? Unless you got something else. I got something else you can take on. Impressment. We have a lot of guests on this show and. Back. You rarely say I don't know today. I think you said, I don't know to one of these questions. I was going to use. Yes, it's like go. Yeah. What happens there? It's just Beverly. I don't know becky's to she's been. Yeah. Yeah, I'm just always so impressed because now knowing your background because last time last podcast, I wish I knew the number of top of my head. You should listen to that one, too, but we really got your story of, you know how you came path career path and all your experiences and then it just it just. So thoroughly comes out when we're chitchat because, like, yes, the fact is what you're trying to say been around the mill a couple of times. Before we started in it Fisher point little more solid leaks. I might have misunderstood it. No. My point is just that I'm impressed. Like I say he has the humility. Great. I guess you're saying that you appreciate that. She has the humility to say, I don't know or that she rarely doesn't know I didn't say that, about the humility would that's a great. Characteristic of people, I, I like to think that I can say that often, too. I say it often, I don't know. But she doesn't say it often which is so impressive. Oh, because she has a lot of. Yes. Yes. But I took note of when she did. Yeah, in Phil proud and happy to know her that she would be like, I don't know. It's great for us Turkey geeks because we just sit around here and just ask weird Turkey questions and she's like oh yeah. Let me tell you about this that and the that's where you run up against the trouble talking to biologists is I'm interested in like, what's the weirdest, right? No. The armadillo. Abolish this is more like, well, we're kind of a little more focused on sorta like what happens. What are the Bill? Normally have it's so I appreciate it. Mike and clear is that before we started recording Becky. Now, we're talking about the national wild Turkey federation convention that happens a national every week around Valentine's Day. Right. And she was telling me what good time it is. And I was saying that it must be right. But you didn't stay long. I think we should go back next year. Mayb love to have you back. Maybe do a little something Kalama our time doing a little like a seminar called drumsticks and dies. Something along those lines drumsticks down at show as you make them real good and be like, tell me, this ain't good. You know, call that booth something like that way, this ain't good. But yeah, she's just telling me what a party, it is. And what a good time how people like take family vacations to be there. And I was just I was noticing that a lot of other conservation. Organisations, their annual conventions are aren't so hot anymore. And they might be losing participation where it seems like the Turkey convention is just like we hearing everybody's going there and it's, you know, people love it over fifty six thousand people were there last year. Yeah. That's where I met. We'll Primoz real quick. Yeah. I mean I mean it's so fun. Because you can you can we have secretaries of agriculture secretary of interior was there. If chief the forest service, and our C S, and they're, they're, they're having dinner with people, and you can have conversations with our members with those folks and then. A who's who of Turkey calling, and all the rest of it. And so between the trade show, the events, the talks the seminars. You, you get a wide variety, and it's fun. It's like a big family reunion. Is it Nashville this year? Yeah. It's nashville. Somebody used to move it around last time. We had we moved out of Nashville. Oh, when the Gaylard wound up getting flooded and had to be closed. So probably about eight years ago. Seven eight years ago in we head it in Atlanta, much smaller participation. But we have gotten so large at they're very few facilities that we can really host it. Well, don't move that thing, Las Vegas. Well, that's what I said that. And our membership, you know, historically, our membership was more heavier to the eastern United States. So we're a thin driving distance for a lot of our membership. So they can bring the whole family down. And makes it really nice. Let's go down and hang out. Please do on primes her role around that floor just pick up every single pot call and go. You and everybody else. Yeah. Yeah. We, we should get a big stack thighs and drumsticks and do something fun title. It's going to be called Turkey drumsticks. Not just for driving in ten stakes. That would be great man. If we had we solicited from listeners, a whole bunch of thighs and drumsticks and went down and just had a taco truck. We just gave out. Don't talk too much about it because you can be held hell to it. Now said, if. Would be we'd love to have you. Come down Spencer. I don't have any conclusions. Go ahead. The Turkey recovery stories like one of the coolest conservation stories, there is, you know, one time they said, there was like thirty thousand that were left and when people think like imperilled species today like rang a Tang or an elephant, there's hundreds of thousands of those left and people think of how few there are. So when you think about thirty thousand turkeys and other seven million today. That's crazy. So thank you to Becky and WT f in the agency is on all the people before you because to really cool animal that you have brought back to the status of. They're all over the continent, people think there's a trap of people thinking that things only get worse. That's right. And then when you learn about the story of America wildlife, like, oh. You can make the world better. You can I used to give a talk when as the state director that these are the golden years, the great years 'cause, you know, we spent hundred years restoring allow these wildlife population. So just weren't around. But the Turkey federation, and the, the wild Turkey is a great success story. And it's, it's nice because it's confidence boost to people that you really can with working together an effort, we can we can restore these species. We can enjoy him today and having tomorrow. That's pretty cool. Yeah. Good old American elbow, grease, man, you got? And. An a nice incentive program. It is because you can go out and interact with these birds and hunt them and eat them. And that makes people be like I'm in. That's right. Let's do it. And they're and they're, they're gorgeous. I mean. As I said, I probably told you guys this before my daughter when she was the lowest used to call them Globes. Because they glow you know, you bring back those Tom's, and they're still they just glow in the iridescence on the feathers and everything else, pretty spectacular. Oh, I should work on is, is nothing to looks worse in a wet Turkey. That's true. Eardrum giving you think some way to, to when you get a wet Turkey to make them look nice again because then you walk up on a wet Turkey. It's not like walking. It's not like walking up on a dry Turkey. No, you're right. It's not not a global anymore. Tell the person normally this really spectacular. All right. Well, thank you very much. Thank you. People can find you guys obviously, if you type in national wild Turkey federation, I mean, they're young ATF dot org. If you're looking to get into Turkey hunting man go there and read because there is a just a not gonna use the exploitative term there, but just a lot of information like I still go there, I'm like, what, how did not have read that article already? And you can go there for good all vocalisations and stuff. Yep. All kinds of information and look up a local chapter get involved, get to know some of the people in your community that already are active and participate with the national wild Turkey federation. They're great people, and we'd love to have new members join us and get in your bids for the carbon carbon. Use the used left-handed Hoy carbon spider, make your let us know your top bid and then we'll send the boat or whoever pledges the highest dollar amount to the national wild Turkey federation. Thank you for coming on. Thank you. One of the reasons I like all you listeners, is that when we really lean on you and call for you to do something you do it. Everybody got behind our cookbook so hard core. Did it came out of the gate as a bestseller on all kinds of bestseller lists stunned phenomenally? Well, well, I'm here to lean on you again. 'cause I would love for you guys to see our new documentary film stars in the sky, we've been talking about it on and off for longtime. Now, it comes up in this podcast, people are always, like, hey, man. We're having a documenting. Well, it's here. Now there's a lot of people in the film that you'd know from the podcast. Joe Rogan, Robert Abernathy, Doug Dern. Buck bowdoin in on and on. It is stars in the sky, and you will find it at stars in the sky, film dot com available for purchase streaming or download again stars in the sky film dot com.

Turkey Turkey federation Becky Humphries Joe South Carolina Michigan Joe fair Nado Tom Rogers Guyana Spurs navy Federal Credit Union Bill Sean United States Joe Farren tunnel Steve national Turkey federation Google Joel South America
Twitter Co-Founder; NFL & Billionaires; Airbnb News

Squawk Pod

39:22 min | 1 year ago

Twitter Co-Founder; NFL & Billionaires; Airbnb News

"This CNBC podcast is brought to you by TD. AMERITRADE investing isn't one-size-fits-all every investor has a unique style. That's why TD Ameritrade our trade offers two different mobile APPs there's TD AMERITRADE mobile. Which lets you manage your portfolio with streamlined? Simplicity or thinker. Swim Mobile. which gives you tools as you need for more advanced trades an in-depth analysis visit td ameritrade dot com slash APPs to find the one? That's right for you once again. That's TD AMERITRADE AMERITRADE dot com slash APPs member SIPC bringing show musically. This squad the daily podcast brought to you by the team behind squawk box control to CNBC's essential morning show. If you're every day get the best stories debate and analysis from the biggest names in business and politics today on Squawk pod billionaire David. Tepper has made a splash in the NFL. Every last billionaire we look at the history of sports. It come into an industry. They always make their mark. David tempers trying to do it. His way how that conversation led to two of the best known and most successful hedge fund managers in the business weighing in on the markets all right so druckenmiller and temper are both following the momentum on this up as where the market is headed at this co Oh founder of twitter and CEO of medium. Ev Williams has launched a third fund in his venture capital firm. Right we can say he's one of the creators of the modern Internet. His comments comments on impact investing in Silicon Valley. Those stories and so many more seriously from Airbnb to Andrew Yang. I'm CNBC producer Cameron Pasta. It's Friday January seventeen. Twenty twenty squad begins right now. Good morning everybody. Welcome to Squawk box here on on. CNBC from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm becky quick along with Joe. Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. The Future Television is coming into focus. Comcast unveiling details of its streaming service called Peacock Peacock hopes to stand out in a crowded field by offering a free ad supported service. NBC Universal Chairman. Steve Burke explained the strategy at the company's presentation yesterday we think there's a clear opportunity to create a streaming platform that we own operate that. Give people what they want when they want it. But allow us to monetize. We also think we're uniquely positioned to take advantage of this opportunity and play a leadership role in the demand streaming world and that unique AAC positioning comes from all of its content with more than six hundred movies available including titles from Universal Pictures Dreamworks Films Like E and Jaws The more than four hundred TV shows include Saturday night live will and grace in the office and the pricing is tiered. Starting with a free ad supported option option or for ten dollars a month. There will be no add. Soya sounded discuss peacock in the changing streaming landscape. Tom Rogers Executive Chairman of win view former. CEO of former NBC cable President He's also a CNBC contributor and probably one of the two or three people most responsible for CNBC when when the industry was facing something similar and that is cable. And you had to navigate through that. So I gotTa tell. Oh yes speaking of thirty years ago when we launched. CNBC I wanted to put the peacock logo on CNBC and the peacock police showed up in my office and said no freaking way not isn't going to happen. Don't even breathe it. We will have revolution from the broadcast for long. Bill Bolster Right. Well that was. That was a ways down the road. We have to prove to the broadcast stations. It wasn't a threat here. You have the the network called peacock and I gotTa Tell You It's a recreation in some ways of a broadcast network working streaming form. And you don't even hear the issue of what about the broadcast affiliates. What are they gonNA think? What are they going to do? Well what about the cable operators. That's the other question question I have. which is you know? There's a huge carriage fees still are a big part of the business and how power different cable operators take comcast. Obviously out of a given even that they're gonNA look at for example late night be put on eight. Am Eight PM rather available to anybody on peacock peacock but on linear available eleven. Thirty well when it comes to the cable operators including comcast. They've adopted a very different view about what happens to programming because court cutting to them actually benefits their core business because they know people still need the broadband part of the cable service. Because streaming requires high-speed broadband cable is where they go forward the margins on the video business have gotten worse worse so they actually improve their margins. As people cut the cord plus peacock I think will ultimately be distributed by most of the cable industry. So I think they'll look at this. Service is actually something that helps them navigate their relationships with broadband subscribers through offering this content service. Yeah so we know who the players are. Now Right. This is phase one is finished. The everybody's announce everybody's in now let the Games begin. We're going to see what actually happens. Well I think the streaming wars are on. I look at this. I'm surprised at some of the discussion of the content to me. This is in large. which part of a wolf and peacocks clothing? Meaning Dick Wolf has put all of the major shows that he has contributed. Did the police and Crime Family on here and I think that that is going to actually be a very substantial part Arta this all the talk has been in the streaming who gets what's comedy. who gets who gets friends? who gets office but these one hour crime dramas? Actually we have a lot of staying power. I can speak in my own household my wife my daughter-in-law will watch Do over and over. And so there's there's a lot live Guts to this in terms of That kind of programming as well. Are they right to take the embrace Jamaica embrace and call a peacock and be so different than they than it was when. CNBC was launching. I mean this is a whole different way. Wall Street looks at it in a different way to look at Disney Disney said. We're all in on this and Disney. He has gotten fifty billion dollars on most of additional market cap by showing it is really all in obviously comcast. Didn't get at that kind of pop but saying hey. This is core this peacock We're putting our our stuff on this and we're really going to put our shoulder behind it. I think ultimately does get them some reward. I think the shifting of the late night television to earlier in the day is really brilliant. Yeah I think that's a way of getting some of the audience that would does not exist for that kind of first rate programming but it's also a little scary in terms of what it means for what's supposed to remain of a traditional television which is supposed to be about live events Fresh daily stuff sports. Now they're beginning to say. Hey we're not just gonNA put scripted entertainment programming on peacock. We're going to put the fresh daily Allie stuff. There you remember when the all the all the affiliates in their eleven o'clock news when when I dunno whoever's in the lead with late night it would impact the bottom line of all those local affiliates and it's still does it just enclosing you're not really that bullish on the whole screaming business and because it's going to be cut throat but you think comcast has an advantage because anybody who streams needs broadband anyway which Disney wouldn't I mean you think Disney's problems problems in terms of the Stock Price Well I think you can say I think it's gotten a bit ahead of itself relative to what's been accomplished -CCOMPLISH having said that you can't take anything away from him. How much early subscribers they got on Disney plus that? That's a huge thing. Comcast as a cable the company I think is well hedged the issue for all the traditional companies is streaming. They have to get into. They gotta put their shoulder behind it but the downdraft and the traditional traditional business. Yeah he's going to be much steeper than I think. Most investors have priced in art. Tom Thank you twenty twenty election. Day New Reuters. Here's a national poll. Finding Senator Bernie Sanders has been steadily climbing and he is now tied with former vice president. Joe Biden for the Democratic National Nomination among among registered voters twenty percent of registered. Democrats and independents said they would back sanders over. Eleven other candidates says an increase of two percentage points from a similar poll last week now. Nineteen percent supported Biden. Twelve percent supported Senator Elizabeth. Warren nine percent backed former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg which is the other story time. He's up to nine percents. Debate and six they would support Pete footage Another twenty twenty candidate speaking exclusively. CNBC here's injury. Yang speaking with argued your Bosa at a fundraiser in San Francisco last night stock market overvalued or undervalued overvalued big tack regulate or break up. You can't oversimplified at that extent you need to actually dig in and solve the problems. You're concerned about fed chair Powell's tenure approve or disapprove somewhere in between recession in two thousand twenty likely or unlikely I'd say a slight downturn in two thousand twenty is very likely I would start putting more economic buying power into people's hands so that we have a trip economy and when asked about facebook's looks political Ad Policy Yang said the social network needs to step up and verify the facts and truth of the ads have on their platform from the numbers the poll that we quoted twenty percent from Biden is that down for Biden or as Bernie stepped up significantly. Because when you see I I wonder if the nine percent who are now supporting Bloomberg or numbers I came straight from Biden from before seeing what has unfortunately become the status quo for both parties. And that's during the primaries. Whatever extreme positions are in any part of the party? That's where it sort of coalesce and poor biden at this point gotta go left it and then during the during the national election. He's going to have to come back obviously because a- but this is rare you have. He's not Bernie. Sanders is a socialist. He's not the democratic socialist. He's associates so you've got an actual socialist in the Democratic Party. Where everybody else? And he's starting to move up. Everybody else has to has to move the the Republican Party time percent right. I'm not sure Independent. Yeah but we'll watch predict the website. I don't see any movement in the in by binding to move. No He may stay where he is. Because it's a it is a battle for the soul of the Democratic Party and it's fifty fifty right now. There's a a lot of it's weird though because the energy is is with the youthful progressive movement. But it's all being thrown onto a seventy eight year old man so the the energy of the young Russian bazaar bazaar do you consolidate back yesterday. Do you end up you end up consolidating the twelve percents that Elizabeth Warren has with the Bernie Sanders number. Do you end up. Consolidating validating the nine percent that may or may not have with with the twenty percent or ninety percent right in both cases. You end up with just thirty very very interesting. I think you get a brokerage convinced. Maybe it is. That's what I think is talking about broker convention on the first after the first or second We are allowed to the the Canada. The they're released. They're allowed to vote for whoever they want to see a candidate who's either come from behind her. Come from nowhere an hour. It's the same for that. It's been the entire time. And if you were betting you could honestly if you had a dollar you can get twenty five thousand five because no one knows airbnb announcing it will consider all stakeholders when it comes to corporate governance. It says not just investors. It plans to take into account. Guess we're talking about this earlier hosts communities shareholders and employees plans to actually Basis compensation on this I spoke with CEO. Brian Chessy last night and he told me I don't want to be one of those. CEO's to say we're trying to do all this great stuff but then we treat board meetings exactly like every other board meeting. They're actually planning on creating a special committee on the board just to do this. And create a stakeholder day instead of shareholder day but it's obviously would include all of these other people it's going to be. This is what he says is the future of the way businesses are gonNA operate. Of course. There's a company that's going to likely go public later this year would be the biggest. IPO of the year when it happens and interestingly to to some degree you have to argue that the traditional shareholder will be diminished. I mean it. It seems like it's going to be a three. Winning Circus says look. He says it's not you know we're trying not it's a trade off against the other but he said look the future of all these companies to do this. This is somewhat what the Business Roundtable's talked about. It seems like he's he's trying to. He's not they're not part of the practice. But very very meaningfully way every one of those stakeholders have the same influence influence or is there a pecking order. The stakeholders is how I pushed him on that and I think that he was talking about. We don't want to trade one off the other I think invariably some we're going to have to have more power than others by the way right now regulators. I would argue. Perhaps more than any other stakeholder in his company probably are the the most important doing this before the IPO. I can understand why he'd want to do that. To fend off the regulators and to Tamp down criticism. That's come through but I don't don't know if you realize how difficult it is to be a public company because of all the CEO's who have taken their companies private again who have said forget it. It's too much of a hassle. That's when they're just doing dealing with shareholders folders. I mean to suddenly say I get having your employees at the table that makes a lot of sense but to suddenly say people who have no affiliation with the company. I think they need to do a much better better job of addressing those complaints. But I don't know if you want them at the stakeholders meeting having an equal vote or host the hosts who our customers and the the customers who are customers of the House and the person who happens to live next door and then the by the way they have some really good complaints. I see all the time on twitter. That's what they should do. A Better job of addressing. But do we want to bring them all into one meeting where this is happening look just addressed the people that are calling your customer complaint lines. It's going to be very interesting to watch. I imagined by the way they will have a direct listing as supposed to an IPO. In terms of how you think this is going to happen. which would be an interesting thing? They have historically not needed additional cash to raise so smart guy. Hey guys questions sort of how this all works itself out next week. WE'RE GONNA be coming to you. Live from the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. It's a holiday-shortened trading week. But we're GONNA start Tuesday at five. Am If I got that right right who can do a four hour show. Oh do people know that. We're also all wired up right and get to a bathroom. You need unwired take off. All the layers go through a metal detector and a brief quiz on whether you're actually allowed to go in there. I mean that's impossible. How are we gonna be able to do? Are you okay with this are you. Guess what are you gonNa tell me it depends. That's gross gross. Don't you have a big thing. That's come up I I. Don't I think so going. Good President. Trump's expected to address a world leaders and CEOS on Tuesday. We'll bring you his speech live. It's supposed to be speaking speaking from five thirty six on Tuesday thirty six. Am East Coast time. Which is eleven thirty? AM to noon. squawk tradition. I'm GonNa try to talk them if possible. It's a squawk tradition and and go last year. I don't think so we'll see and we have a possible we have a huge lineup of Of other her big people including other presidents but of corporations and dozens more. It's always a big deal. It's cold with the walk everywhere. But I I think it might be worth it as a backdrop it's a beautiful backdrop. It's a cool place. Top leaders in business and government. Who will be there? It's one time that we can go and can have all of the other half lives and things and then I put that in my you know what I mean. I'm there I try why not to live like the other I wa. You live like the half good half the deplore WEFFER's offers out. Actually what you're saying. I talked about it a lot. The Davos Syndrome very similar to Stockholm Syndrome. You might have a nickname. It's going to be Tanya. Just it's like Patty hearst from the she actually turned into you know they captured started carrying. Yeah exactly I hope that I always try to not let that happen over. There not be hit with too many just just remember. The Jamie Diamond Line is really about what you're telling millionaires what what to think. I'm surprised that you would repeat that because you know in the past. I've called you like what you call. There's Neanderthal man. Oh man stops man right. I'll take what I. Can you walk around over there. And it's like right. How many panels relieving seriously now seems like an appropriate time to promote our podcast? You're on swapped. Todd we will bring you the best of next week for Corporate Super Bowl highlight plus some behind the Katie creamer. You're usual hosts will be onsite in our rooftop set in the Swiss Alps navigating the cold the snow and whatever else to get our show on the air. While she's there she'll be recording. Some podcast extras with the the rest of our production team. and was Joe. I'll be here stateside that content and delivering it right Interiors News Azazel be next anyway coming up next on. Today's Squawk pod the new owner on the block if that will goals and the Carolina Panthers Win a super bowl. They were temporary. Looks like the new guy that came one block and show the NFL owners. Look I'm the rich I knew how to do with CNBC. Sports Business reporter to Bari on weighs in on the newest enriches just owner in the NFL and that owner weighs in on the market. He has had some incredible success with major calls that he's made along the way and I would pay attention agenda what he has to say. We'll be right back this. CNBC podcast is brought to you by TD. AMERITRADE investing isn't one-size-fits-all every every investor has a unique style that's why td Ameritrade offers two different mobile APPs there's TD ameritrade mobile which lets you manage your portfolio with streamlined. Simplicity -plicitly or thinker Swim Mobile. which gives you tools? You need for more advanced trades and in-depth analysis visit td Ameritrade dot com slash APPs to find the one. That's right for you once again. That's TD AMERITRADE DOT com slash APPs member s ABC. Welcome back to squawk good morning and welcome squawk box here. CNBC live from the Nasdaq market site. In Times Square. Joe Kernan along with Becky. Quick and Andrew Ross. Sorkin David Tepper bought the Carolina Panthers for more than two billion dollars in two thousand eighteen. Which is pretty interesting? Because he's a huge steeler fan Anyway I guess Selanne look look all of these guys have their teams they love but they also is this. Don't come up very often. Well looks like he's Panthers Fan now for sure becoming the NFL's richest owner. He hasn't been shy about splashing ashes. The cash around promising to build a new world class practice facility for the team just recently signed rookie. A head coach Matt rule to a sixty million dollar contract according to our own Tobar young other. NFL owners are not too happy about the spending spree joining us. Now that was Jabari joins us. He's CBC Dot Com Sports. Business reporter. I can see that I can see how the coaches raises the bar. There's a lot of I mean Bella. Check check US twelve and eleven the Seahawks I paid and Mike Tomlin around ten area. What is about round eight ten in you know ten minute mark? Because he's one hundred dollars for ten years ultimately even seniors that was phenomenal but these coach I mean these owners none of them can block everything get they. Shouldn't they just be happy. They got these this great thing going on they got these unbelievable elite profitable businesses. What are they whining about about this dino? Listen there's nothing that owners want more if you're an owner anything them more money and if I can win by paying somebody left. Then what's the problem. Why are they mad about this? Because you're listening. Every last billionaire we look at the history of sports when they come into an industry. They always try to make their mark. Then when Dan Snyder the redskins on the understand all that money Bruce Smith all of those guys and Mark Cuban the same way but the mavericks came to blast me one time. He sent in Limousines People's houses just so they can get to the to the game goes night's storm and he just made his mark. He went around town promoting they all try to make their mark right. David Store and fine Mark Cuban because he was open his mouth he was the guy that was on camera talking all the time. David tempers trying to do it his way did they eventually. All kind of tamp down where okay. I've been doing this for for a while. It's more business as usual. Some of them really stick around and have that same sort of level of enthusiasm the whole way through. Well you know. I think they learned business. I think Mark Cuban was phenomenal. He'd learn the business. He understood what he could not do. One of his first moves he wouldn't sign dinners rob thirty eight and they got kicked out league right right so he made it. He tried to make his mark. They've temperatures and do the same thing that if Matt we'll goals and the Carolina Panthers went a suitable David tepper. Looks like the new guy came on a block and show the NFL owners. Look I'm the rich rich guy. I don't know how to do it. You said that rule loses then he just looks like the guy who just came aboard. A toy doesn't make as much as some of the other but he's never coached a game. He's never talked about before they got one thing. In common one super bowls they are established in but he says this guy is going to be here persist for thirty to forty years. Well said he's still fan okay. So if he's going and building that team off of the art Rooney model and he's keeping coaches in police and letting him do that. That's fine but we'll see if matt rule we'll see David tepper folds folds on the Fire Matt who doesn't get off to a good start for you know what I like. The idea of being a long-term owner making long term decisions back to investing right if you are an owner who can look out and deal the long term. You can make much better decisions trying to do earning season. I covered the spurs for my my career. And you WANNA talk about somebody puts emphasis on longevity Eh. Gregg Popovich one of the longest tenure the longest tenure head coaching professional eleven million a year. Eleven twelve but I think poppy lions sometimes about his money. But now if you're tired love it and if I'm if I'm any of the NFL Hickel Bill Belichick and see Matt. Rule just came into the League winning one game and he's making I Owner Mr Crayons Tom. The bought me to the twenty rookie. Can't be near me. Have this evil thing. I liked the owners. I'm you know I'm not trying to take Komo small violin and how I feel researching this story talking millions and millions and I'm GONNA get my check. I'm getting practices. Susan are their profit margins at risk. Now because it's not in that way it's more just for the head coach's they WanNa win. You WanNa you WANNA play. You gotta pay but you gotTa pay for the Right Guy who's news these. He's got losing money during draft can look at it and say listen. We had a prison and we sat because these new rookie head coach is coming about four year deals for cheap money. They gotta pull themselves with David. Tepper did got an inexperienced guy and I like Matt Rule. He's a tough guy like me. I like the guy put to give them that amount of money in that amount of years when I hadn't proven anything that's kind of on I'll be upset too because you're messing up the business. This is what Netflix did TV. It's just taking new guys off the street. What are you know you've full? Full seasons of WHO piloted people. Who Do people want the Super Bowl? I want for T- what's best for the forty niners Florida chiefs would be phenomenal young. It would be good if a busy have a young quarterback Patrick mahomes wound up against one of your oldest teams in the NFL. In a San Francisco. Forty niners with the city fan base. Is The fan base down here so so you winning all around. That would be good. It would be something we all right to bars. Thank you you can read a piece on. CNBC DOT com bring a little more more energy. Next time. I'll probably get up for some workout. Go the gym. I don't sleep so the conversation. You just heard David tepper. The guy they were just talking about he heard it too and he was inspired to contact. CNBC afterwards specifically Joe through incidentally was his neighbor before tap removed Florida. He didn't have time to say on this. NFL story but tempered did weigh on the markets. And we should tell you. The recent temper is rich enough to own the Carolina Panthers and the the richest NFL owner in general is because because he's with Joe Calls a hedge fund. There were years that he made over one and a half billion dollars again. Just in one year as a manager in his fund Appalachia. Here's what he had to say to Joe about the markets. During this morning's TV broadcast it was serendipitous that we were talking about the Carolina Panthers and the Pittsburgh steelers. I said what your market how you feeling about it. And he basically quickly said I love riding a horse. It's running I said what the hell does that. Mean is that the Carolina Panthers. You're talking the better. The steelers and he goes no. We've been long the market and continue that way. He said we should put in a qualifier. Though at some point the market we'll get to a level where that I will slow down that horse and eventually get off and he let us know when that happened. Yeah I said well I said do you have a level or some sign that would start indicating that to you and he says is it. I'm going to be the first to know me. Joe Kernan after his wife and his mom and in that aura which which references back to earlier that the Carolina Panthers. So that's the wife and the Pittsburgh steelers are are the mother so I guess if you take away from that it's a mess we've we've had people say that it's a momentum on trade right Kramer said as much. I think I mean how do you ten years ago. He was so right off. This is the hard part and I'm if I'm third that might be early enough Right this is a very significant call Temper doesn't come out and make calls like this very frequently. This seems to to me like something that people should sit up and pay attention to Again he's made a couple of calls mirrors the temper Tantrum at one point when he said to get out of things to It's almost impossible to time the market but he has had some incredible success with major calls that he's made along the way and I would pay attention to what he has to say to. You brought him the homeschool in later on in the broadcast within an hour of those comments from David Tapper and less than ten minutes before the scheduled end described arts programming one of the the other greatest hedge fund managers of all time piped up that would be Stanley druckenmiller Duquesne capital his now closed Hedge Fund had a track record nearly unheard of on wall. Street the thirty percent average annual return to investor's is a legend in the industry temper has been the subject a really positive comments from someone that it may be the best ever in business stand druckenmiller so I asked him About Kemper and his comments and stand doesn't like the pine lightly very often and I appreciate that he did this today but he said of the current market I revealed very bullish posture. Austere Intermediate term in an interview on December thirteenth. Since October when Powell guaranteed that he would not rescind the the insurance cuts unless inflation was persistently above target in other words would not change even if trade brexit worked out since then both of worked out and the Fed is still whining about inflation being below target in addition trump's election prospects of increased to trade agreements in a big win in Iran on which the Democrats have responded poorly to so in his words. I am still riding the horse. As well and bullish intermediate-term all right so druckenmiller and temper are both following the momentum on this and think that up is where the market is headed and there is playing in the net show. Yes and I and like I said it would tempers call when you put in the qualifier that I saw this horse down you know that could be hours days or weeks. I mean so you know. I don't know how long the probably important to say to that. Neither one of these two gentlemen woke up this morning thinking no neither one. Advertising position is to be incumbents tation with them and this is what you I appreciate it but he said if you must. You're just for people who think they're manipulating us. And they're gonNA tell this so so they can sell. That was not the intent. Either of them woke up with then. Just tell you what they actually think about the market right right exactly and you know what you have to worry about saying saying something on a global financial and that's what cell site people. These guys have skin in the game. They got much bigger problems about whether they they say something something on somebody because they have. That's why the buy side is so much. That's why even predicted next next on Squawk pod Internet entrepreneur ev Williams on ESPN investing and the attitudes of Silicon Valley employees toward the tech companies. They work in Silicon Valley for example employee's care tremendous amount about this. It's not district customers. But if you want you want talented full be right back. You're listening to swap good morning. Welcome squawk box right here on. CNBC interests working along with becky. Quick Joe Kernan. Silicon Valley entrepreneurs tour's often want to shake up industries but obvious ventures wants to do more than that the early stage venture fund founded in two thousand fourteen takes a long term view and makes investments in companies the the tackle some of the world's toughest challenges such as climate change healthcare and education its portfolio includes magic leap electric bus startup patera notably beyond meat which was the firm's first public exit. Join US right now can I. We can just say he's one of the creators of the modern Internet Williams's here twitter of course medium. Jim This is the guy. And then James Joaquin co-founder of obvious ventures as a is the CO founder of twitter C- of medium. What what other fabulous fabulous things? What was the original? If there isn't blogger lager. That's what I was thinking to Google in two thousand and three so We've got a lot of topics to talk to them about out. But why don't we just start real real briefly I with the fund. And what you're trying to do with today's big day for us we're announcing our third fund. We're entering our seventh year ear and this is a major growth milestone for us. Our Third Fund is two hundred. Seventy one million eight hundred twenty eight thousand one hundred eighty eighty two dollars. How did you choose that number? Well those are the first nine digits of one of the most important constants in mathematics called oilers number universally known as e so so we like to say E. Equals lovie three for us with this third fund. Do you have. Investors hit themselves investors. who either wanted to get in at a certain number or this and you said we can't do it because because we need to actually equal the certain number two for twenty we're not a cannabis fund all right? This is a tradition for us. Our first fun was just one two three four five six seven eight nine. Yeah your second. One was a pal Andrew in one thousand nine Allen Drummond. We love to celebrate math and science. It's a lot of the cutting edge technology we invest in and so getting our third fund to eat. It was a lot of work to get our. LP's right the right number but we did it. This is the Einstein either equals MC squared or. It's named after Leonard. Swiss mathematician founder the Houston Women's or no connection. There were a little bit older. Ask about a PRI- one of the things. We talked about a lot out on. The show is private valuations relative to public valuations in this marketplace. Right now and what we've seen over feels like the transition at least the last year where there were these very high I public or private valuations and then came down in the public markets. And how you think that's changing the landscape or if it all well I think we got it right with beyond me right right in our. Our private valuations were much lower than the public market valuation. That we see with that company. That's been a fantastic return for us and a fantastic proof point. Join of the word that we do but to your question I think Silicon Valley is increasing. Its focus on profitability and invest at the early stage. So we're not public markets experts but we do focus on making sure that every investment we make there's a thesis and a path to profitability and. We're seeing more investors focused on that. We're seeing some of the late Stage companies start to do some layoffs to reduce burn to get closer to profitability. Maybe that's in anticipation of how they're going to be valued in the public. Let me ask you a beyond meat. Related Eighty question it relates to the news and Our has out in terms of refocusing his firm around climate and sustainability issues like that. He says it's an economic decision. Meaning he he. This is not a political decision. It's not even a to some degree even a science decision for him personally. It's he thinks. The world as investors millennials and others are moving towards sustainable investing. I mean obviously that's part of the trend bought beyond beyond me. What percent? How far do you think that goes? And how quickly do you think it happens. Well I think it's happening right now and beyond is a proof point as James said but it goes back to our original thesis says and which was we don't think of ourselves impact investors we think of ourselves as financial investors who are choosing things that are addressing major problems. Because because if you figure out how to do that profitably it's GonNa be huge business. And so it's very in line with Larry is saying I think it's not just new generations choices it's a necessity necessity and and so what what we've seen beyond and lots of other portfolio companies diamond found agree is about lower carbon diamonds. There's there's all these kinds of things that people are choosing because they realize there's there's a better way to solve these problems but how much of that is a bit for example apple and thinking of a lot of the also going to see the big silicon valley companies that do have big balance sheets. That are now moving in this direction. In terms of some of the work that that they're they're doing at cops to them by the way because you see apple for example now running I think all of their operations the US tolman off of carbon neutral. Well it's Ed cost to them and there's a bigger equation there. I know in Silicon Valley for example employees. Cara tremendous amount about this stuff. So it's not just your customers but if you want you want talent that that feels like you're doing the right thing as a company it becomes a real issue to do that and we think high carbon companies are fragile Rachel right there. They are at risk of a price on carbon fundamentally changing the economics of their business we can flip trillion dollar industries to low-carbon even think about food energy transportation resources a lot of the companies in our portfolio have better economics when Pro Tara sells the city of New York an electric bus. It costs less to operate than diesel bus. So the numbers are just before we let you go. I have a couple of social media questions for you. Okay Tick Tock Doc. What do you think it's fun? It's fun would you use it to use it. I've I've played with it. I liked understand all all the new things. It's not my genre right. Haven't yet made a tick tock video. I don't think I can compete on average snap. I think I think Evan is one of the greatest product thinkers. There is an. I'm sure they're gonNA come out with lots of more creative things. He's very nice and polite. Have James Thank you thanks. That's that's the show for today next week. The World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. It's cold the walk everywhere but I think it might be worth the most influential eventual minds in global business and politics in the Alps with us and before that money might be a market holiday spot. pod will be here with a very special interview from last year's Davos a conversation with conservationist ecology and overall wonderful Human Jane Goodall. But it's very rare. We're I'm MM starstruck and I was genuine starstruck by Jingo squawk boxes hosted by Joe Kernan Becky quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin Weekday Mornings on CNBC eastern at six am eastern to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV. Show right into your ears. Subscribe to swap pod. Wherever you get your news we'll meet you back here on Monday? Have a good weekend are clear skies this CNBC. He podcast is brought to you by TD AMERITRADE investing isn't one-size-fits-all every investor has a unique style. That's why TD AMERITRADE offers two different mobile APPS. There's Tedi Ameritrade Mobile. Which lets you manage your portfolio with streamlined? Simplicity or thinker. Swim Mobile. which gives you tools? You need for more or advanced trades and in-depth Analysis Visit T._d.. AMERITRADE DOT com slash APPs to find the one. That's right for you once again that's T._D.. AMERITRADE DOT com slash APPs members A._B._C..

CNBC NFL CNBC td Ameritrade Carolina Panthers David Tepper CEO Silicon Valley Joe Kernan Joe Kernan Becky comcast David twitter Joe Airbnb Third Fund Matt rule Tom Rogers Ev Williams Joe Biden
Election Day Special: Too Big to Rig

The Asset

34:49 min | 3 months ago

Election Day Special: Too Big to Rig

"The max bergmann here for more of the asset podcast. Please go to our patriarch page at. Www dot patriots dot com slash asset podcast. That's pat r. e. n. dot com slash acid podcast. You'll hear the phone interviews with our roster experts and analysts you'll also get more exclusive content from the acid team like our interview with the chairman of the house intelligence committee adam schiff event reacting to robert morris testimony and upcoming episode following the mysterious trail of dead russians around the twenty sixteen election and a whole lot more. Don't miss out sign up today at. Www dot patriots dot com slash asset. Podcast the united states has decades of experience and invested trillions of dollars to protect our country from the conventional threat of war. But as we near possibly the most consequential presidential election of our history are we prepared for an unconventional threat. It's election night. Two thousand stay with us. We're about to take you on an exciting and bumpy raw an important win for vice president al gore. Nbc news projects that he wins the twenty five electoral votes in the state of florida cnn. Right now is moving our earlier declaration of florida back to the too close to call at eighteen minutes past two o'clock eastern time. Cnn declares that george walker bush has won florida's twenty-five votes. This is abc news. Special report a nation. Wade's now reporting peter. Jennings good evening. everybody. I'll make it quick and simple to beginning. The supreme court of the united states has reversed the decision of the florida supreme court. Clearly it looks like it's all over of for al gore at this point now the. Us supreme court has spoken. Let there be no doubt while. I strongly disagree with the court's decision. I accept it. I accept the finality of this outcome. Which will be ratified next monday. And the electoral college and tonight for the sake of our unity of people and strength of our democracy. I offer my concession. More people probably remember the phrase hanging chads than they do the date when al gore conceded the election to george w bush constitutional scholars argue that date december twelfth two thousand was critical to the election of the president of the united states and some of them would contend that had gore not conceded instead of president george w bush. The forty third president of the united states could have been denny hastert in this episode of unconventional threat. We're going to dig deep into how the winner of the presidency is determined. Densify the threats to reaching that outcome and explain what the results are if those threats are realized. Josh is executive director of the institute for constitutional advocacy and protection at georgetown university law center. He explains the crucial dates. Surrounding the presidential election of twenty twenty november. Third is is election day although this year. I think it's important to emphasize that voting has begun and county will continue their after. But of course. That's that's a key date november third. Then we moved to the next day of december eight the date set by federal statute as a safe harbor so congress has said of a state resolves a dispute over its electric by that day congress will abide by that state's resolution so then the next date of significance comes on december fourteenth. That's the meeting of electors in the various states to indicate how those states have cast their votes for president. Constitution says it has to be the same date for all states. federal law sets the particular day december. Fourteen okay fast. Forward from there to december twenty three. That's a date set by congress for the votes to be received in washington. Dc by the senate and by the archivist. So now you have those votes coming from the states. They'd gone in the people in the states to their electors who meet send them to washington. New congress gets sworn in on january third important to remember that january. Sixth that new congress gets together. House senate sitting together joint session called for by the twelfth amendment to the constitution and that special joint session of congress opens these packages from the states with the the vice president vice president pence this time presiding over that session as president of of the senate so that sequence that i just ran through often passes in relative obscurity which usually is assigned. The things are going smoothly. But there's reason to at least watch carefully this year because to the extent that there are those willing to break with democratic norms those different dates whole different potential for mischief that needs to be resisted and the people need to understand and just to give you one example of that there is a federal law being talked about increasingly in which a state legislature can deem election day fail and instead determine a new way of selecting presidential electors. Now i think we all know what that law fairly means. It means that if a natural disaster would've make voting impossible in a state for example the state legislature might pick a new day for voting. But there's been discussion of could a state legislature not acting in good faith attempt to essentially substitute its own judgment for that. The people for some reason maybe the number of mail in ballots still coming in declare election day failed and choose a new method of selecting namely its own vote. It's at least conceivable. If congress for example hasn't resolved some of the issues we talked about facing it on january six conceivably. You could reach a point in which there has not been a new president-elect determined by january twenty so it's possible if the results voting we may not have determined the winner by january twentieth twenty twenty one as we record this. There are already nineteen major cases in court contesting voting procedures. Thirteen of them are focused on vote-counting and battleground states and five of them are already before the supreme court most of these cases center on accommodations for changes in the voting procedures because of the pandemic as a result of the change. Those procedures almost eighty million votes have been cast advance election day. November third two thirds of those early votes were mailed in. That's record setting number of mail in votes but there has been a constant and consistent campaign of falsehoods claiming that voting by mail will lead to widespread fraud as far as the ballots are concerned. It's a disaster. This ending millions ballots all over the country this fraud. They found him in creeks. They found some with the name. Trump just happened to have the name trump. Just the other day in a wastepaper basket. This is going to be a fraud like you've never seen. Why would president trump and his campaign spread disinformation about and votes at the same time. The trump campaign spent hundreds of thousands of possibly millions of dollars urging their own base to vote by mail. Mary mcchord is legal. Director for the institute for constitutional advocacy and protection. She believes that. Mr trump is sending a message when worried about conceal election is. We've had a near constant refrain from president trump Saying that information really saying that meal imbalance are highly susceptible to fraud saying that any delay in the election is likely to mean that it's rigged and fraudulent refusing to denounce civil unrest if he perceives the election to be unbear- now all of this is disinformation. Meaning it's without any basis in empirical evidence but these are dog whistles to these militia groups to take matters into their own hands. And you know. I have concerns at some will sort of self activate members of organizations tending to be far right organizations and a militia organizations. They're not really listening to what direct ray has to say. They're listening to what the president is saying about voter fraud and They have been known in the past to respond to the president's tweets and similar rhetoric we believe president trump has incorporated bogus claims about voter fraud in his stump speech that he's laying the foundation for disrupting the vote counting and swing states. Tom rogers says trump thinks he has an ace up his sleeve but like a sloppy card player. Trump has tipped his hand drum when asked about the mail in ballots actually spoke about the fact that well at some point congress makes the determination which kinda led out of the bag that this was conscious strategic thinking that clearly had happened in front of him that he was aware of and often speaks of things that maybe he's not supposed to disclose in. Its in his head and he does and he blurted it out in that instance since then there have been a number at times where he's talked about how this could go to the supreme court. This could go to congress and made very clear that if it did go to congress They have an advantage in the house of representatives where under some scenario this ultimately could end up and so it's become very clear this is conscious thinking on the part of the trump campaign that this is a pat they may well go down You're most likely to see a conflict between electoral states that the courts recognizes a conflict in court recognize. There is a somewhat of a contradiction between constitutional roles of the state. Legislature and electoral certification roles laid out in the electoral count. Act of eighteen. Eighty seven is where you do have in michigan wisconsin. Pennsylvania north carolina for key swing states. Where there is a republican legislature and democratic governor and secretary of state and the question becomes will the supreme court decide to take that case and resolve the issue of that inherent contradiction. Will it the decide that that is a political question. Not one for its resolution but one where it believes. Bear is a political process that is set out in the political branch or the congress ought to decide which laid it recognizes as a legitimate one. Michael antonio the author of the truth about trump spoke with us about donald trump's philosophy of engagement. He wants to me that you have to be willing to do. The more extreme thing does so. If you're in a street fight you have to be the first one to hit somebody below the belt and then if if that person does that then you have to be willing to out there is out it. Doesn't you have to go beyond where other people will go. So i don't know that it's a matter of ever. More destructive acts in a conscious way or accent will be targeting. The you know the end of the united states of america as we know it. I think that that would be the collateral damage he wouldn't even care wouldn't even think about that. I don't i don't think he would be reflecting on that. And the other thing think about is that he really does think that he is the state. So what is good for. Donald trump is by definition good for america. And what's bad for. Donald trump is bad for america so his fight for himself as a personality. Is the fight for america. So it's a prescription for us. Being in a lot of trouble. We are in a lot of trouble. It an exclusive interview michael dantonio. Donald trump revealed his strategy for winning disputes in a conversation about his difficulties building. A golf resort in scotland in aberdeen. I built a very successful place. And i mean you can't even get on the course it so fact. I'm going to do a second but i have but i'm demanding that the government stopped the windmill. Shit yeah i know. I've been following that one. Yeah to delay just appeal your way out out less people. Okay i had. I loved picked the pages of the twenty twenty presidential campaign or rip straight out of donald. Trump's playbook fight dirty and outlast your opponent as we've said before this podcast is based on three principles. One everyone who is eligible to vote should be able to vote to every ballot cast should be vote counted and three the voters. Choose president. the president does not choose. Who are the voters we believe. Also since accordance with the constitution should have their say in who becomes sworn in as president on january twentieth. Two thousand twenty one. That means playing by the rules meeting deadlines that are codified the constitution in state and federal law and accepting the consequences of decisions made by both parties and both campaigns leading up to inauguration. Day at the start of the podcast. Josh seltzer enumerated key dates in determining the outcome of the election. One of those dates this election year is the safe harbor date of december eight. That means if a state has a dispute over the vote count the state legislatures have the right to settle that dispute if they do so by december eight th then congress has to abide by their decision and accept the resolution. But what if the state doesn't resolve the dispute what happens then to those all important electoral votes alex case kesar is the matthew w stirling junior professor of history and social policy at harvard university professor case ours the author of. Why do we still have the electoral college. The wording of the constitution makes clear that the state legislatures decide. How electors will be chosen. And there's evidence from bush v gore that suggests that they can even after having decided to hold an election. They can take that power back whether they can do it. After the people have voted of course create will be a work project for lawyers. But this could certainly happen. I think it's not altogether unlikely to see a scenario. Where suppose absentee ballots are being counted slowly or not too slowly or there are challenges and disputes to thousands all absentee ballots signatures and so there are claims that the that the election has not led to a clear result in the state. I think it is very credible to think. That state legislatures may then if the election seems to be in doubt bay then say we can't get a reliable count. We don't know what the story is. We're gonna choose electors by ourselves. Some key battleground states have split state governments where the governor is a democrat and the legislature is republican controlled. One of those states is the key swing state of pennsylvania. Here is norm. Ornstein resident scholar at the american enterprise institute. What if in pennsylvania armies of lawyers decide to try and Contest hundreds and hundreds of thousands of individual votes cast by mail and litigation over and over again. This one has a mismatch in the signature. This one didn't fill out the oval completely. This one Didn't put the date on it and dragged out for many many weeks member the when we had a contested senate election in minnesota norm coleman. Al franken that Even though the number of contested ballots actually came down to just several hundred. It took months to be able to iron all of that out through a legal process and the court's intervention. And if you can push it pass the safe harbor dates than the legislature could say. I'm sorry we can't follow the normal process so we will pick a slate of electors now. The governor in this case a democrat is going to choose his own slate two slates of electors from the same state with the slate from the republican legislature casting. Its electoral votes for donald trump and the slate from the democratic governor casting. Its votes for joe biden. How could that happen. Mark meadows served as special assistant to president clinton and as a senior director on the national security council. The best reading of the electoral laws of the country's governors or the executive of the state of certify electors but creative slash unscrupulous lawyers could make the argument that legislatures also could put forward their own slates of electors which is the recipe for further chaos for potentially short-circuiting the electoral college and the states were. You'll see that. Divided government risk our pennsylvania wisconsin michigan north carolina perhaps pennsylvania wisconsin are the ones that have probably received the most attention because There have been some legislators in pennsylvania for example who've talked about setting up their own election review committee suggesting that they were going to decide. You know who the winner was or is I think in many other states. There is actually bipartisan cooperation. Might guess is most americans in most states actually have a fair amount of bipartisan consensus on the basic principles of letting every valuable voter vote and count all the votes and let the count stand but there. There is a potential this year Disruptive scenarios because of the polarization and because of the divided governance in some of the states here again is josh. Pelzer congress looks to a law passed to figure out to resolve those disputes in. How in particular procedurally. The two houses slip back up. They debate certain things but also how they think through how to accept a package or reject. Apac come back together. And i january twenty. One hopes have figured out who the next president is. Here again is tom. Rogers is this. The entire congress said that is sworn in on january third that will make these decisions and there is a joint session of congress. Under the electoral count act. That happens on january six actually constitutionally provided for i believe that involves a joint session of congress and the electoral slate are supposed to be opened by the vice president in front of that joint session and there are some question about how active a role vice president complained to what extent he can sway. What ballot or what. Electoral slate is open. But what happens at that. Point is the opportunity for objections to be heard from house and senate in that joint session and if there are objections and they're certainly would be with competing slates house and senate than adjourn to their respective delivery. And on the senate side the democrats would have to gain control of the senate for the house and senate bean green as to. What's the appropriate electoral slate in a given state and for that to happen The democratic sweep of the senate would need to be pretty extensive. It's not picking up three seats and were four to the extent. Alabama was lost by the democrats. Which many think is likely but because vice president pence is still in office on january six when this happens because the presidential transfer of power is not till january twentieth as the presiding officer of the senate in over to vote in order to overcome his vote. The democrats would have to pick up five seats so arizona would likely have to be one of those what they probably also have to pick up colorado a name. They probably also need to pick up a north carolina. Montana are the are the next couple after that that are considered most likely Potentially iowa after that so many c. Three seats as really possible for democrats many c. Four five gets to be pretty hard and that would mean if they can't get the five. The house in the senate can't be unified in their objections to the electoral slate. And that's when real trouble ensues because then the ultimate decision falls to the house under the twelfth amendment if the house and senate do not agree from the election would then be decided by the house of representatives mark. Meadows explains how that process might look if in this process. The electoral college is still inconclusive. Deadlocked tied the constitution has provisions for a contingent election process in the house in in congress. Where the house would be picking the president and the senate would be picking the vice president. So that's the process that you were referring to a process of contingent election in the house. So we've gone beyond the electoral college. The assumption would be the electoral college has been short circuited because of delays of counting votes because of uncertainty of of certifications of slates of electors. In like and nobody has a majority so goes to the house in the house. Each state gets one vote so they're fifty votes and and A majority wins currently The republican party has a majority of six. But it's the new house that would vote and we we don't yet know what what the balance of power will be in the new house. What's important here and this is what our article tried to highlight. Is that Within congress each house of congress gets to decide its own rules number one and number two there are certain provisions in the twelfth amendment procedural rules that also have to be obeyed. There are quorum rules for example and it could very well be the case that the senate is unable to meet its squirm requirement and a corm can be blocked in the house and the speaker might be able legitimately to come to that conclusion. So the the the takeaway from this as if the house and the senate are unable to appoint the president and the vice-president what happens. Interestingly is that the speaker of the house becomes the acting president. It should indeed provide a strong impetus for all reasonable. A citizens officials elected officials in this country to work it out and to avoid kate the chaos that we're talking about which would be a true constitutional crisis and should be avoidable. Having nancy pelosi resigned as speaker of the house to become the forty. Six president of the united states is one possible outcome of the twenty twenty election. But of course what we and most americans would prefer as that we have an orderly lawful accurate account of the popular vote followed by the proper certification of electors who represent the will of the people in that way donald trump or joe biden will legitimately be inaugurated as president of the united states on january twentieth. Twenty twenty one. So what can you do to help. Maintain the integrity of our democracy. Here is political. Strategist jamal simmons. My advice is don't just leave this up to the lawyers and the In the media to get this right somebody. I had a republican a colleague. I was on the show recently. Said yeah the states may flip back there. And i said it's not flipping back because flipping back implies that they are ready. The there was an answer that has to be flipped. The truth is we have no answer right. We don't have an answer. It's like grabbing. Somebody's exam halfway. Through and then china determine whether or not they know they pass test or not give them. It takes time to finish the exam. So let's So that's the danger and it's not just going to be left up to the lawyers. People have to be on the streets. People are going to have to be protesting in front of state. capitals people. happy writing letters. B. on the media is going to have to be an entire campaign happens after election day. If if it's unclear election night that enough votes have been counted enough states. People are going to have to be out in force to make sure the narrative doesn't get set in when in fact we don't have the results. Josh belcher the important role local officials will play in determining the winner in the two thousand twenty presidential elections. We've seen one. Category of state officials stepped up at times on a nonpartisan basis already which is secretaries of state who regardless of their political affiliation have made statements out their commitment to a fair vote a safe vote in the midst of a pandemic about what can and can't be trusted mail in ballots. Being in the category of things that can be trusted. And we've seen those voices emerged someone encouragingly. In recent weeks those who serve at the state local level Can can do a lot. If they're willing to raise raise their voices and use the authorities at their disposal to ensure that we have a election season election results ahead that are peaceful regardless of what goes results happen to be and ultimately this is a form of federalism. Our country is built on federalism. Sometimes that structure the lights people. Sometimes it frustrates people but it does mean that there are important actors at the state and the local level at who have an ability to make things better to make these more peaceful to raise their voices and our administration of elections. Even federal elections is federalized. Samat way it's left in a remarkable remarkable level to not just federal officials to do a whole lot of other actors across the country and that creates opportunities for them to help as well former chief of staff. To colin powell. Larry wilkerson sits on a national task force. That's examining how we can improve our electoral system. Well let me just tell you. After nine months of studying this with some of the best electoral politics experts in the country. Like ned foley from ohio state university norm ornstein for may and others. There are some real problems out there. Significant problems out there and we need to fix pixel. One of the things that we're going to do with the national task force is leave. They balloonist report on all the things that need to be fixed including state by state statutes that need to be passed or need to be amended or whatever because we have a lot of hells in our system that said there not enough holes the where if we just act halfway decently and that's where question comes in. But if we do if we can force people to act halfway decent we can get through this election at our institutions will and they will do so much more readily and much easily more easily if it's a blowout and a blowout either way but of all out. That is the popular vote in the electoral college votes massively. I'm way or the other. Two big rig is the phrase people sometimes. Yeah that's true. We have a constitution that has served us has been interpreted and adaptable for some two hundred thirty years. And here we are in twenty twenty facing an election like no other wondering whether that constitution is sufficient to protect a democracy that we all believe in. That's really what i'm hearing as we as we talk folks that were talking to well. I think there's some big principles and our democracy and by focusing on the big principles getting away from the details or the electoral contact the details of the twelfth amendment. There's some big principles and the first big principle is that we're supposed to be a government by oven for the people which means that the popular will is reflected in people's votes truly does need to be respected and we've got a constitution where the popular revoke. It's translated into an electoral count and that doesn't always happen perfectly. There's some additional protection for small states in the electoral college and they have outside influences a result but the basic principle. The governor's opposed to represent the voters can be chosen by the voters. That's the core of the institution and as we look at the electoral contact its intricacies the twelfth amendment. Its intricacies and the question. What happens if there's multiple candidates certified for electoral college Contested election disputes over. Who's one is that. We need to respect the will of people as reflected in the vote and as everybody work through the complexities of twelfth amendment constitution. It is essential. We keep that in mind. There's a lot of optimism to be taken out of of what we're seeing these days voting. That's taking place in ways. It has not been seen before and large percentages of people are standing up. Waiting in lines wearing masks and socially distanced. They seem to be telling me that they care about this. Vote and they care about it being counted. That's the uplift thing part of this story. And how will they respond to the result. What will the result be how they will respond to it. How will it be counted. I see americans doing their part more than ever. Before i look at texas over nine million people fifty three point. One percent of registered voters had cast their ballots in early voting. As of october twenty nights. These are just huge numbers. So americans are doing their part but they're going to have to keep doing it. If their political leaders wind up taking stances making decisions that lead to a contested election and americans need to insist that their voices be recognized. That the people who voted have their votes counted. Those counselors certified these basic principles and as we go through what could be a very complex contested election. We need to keep that in mind at all times. It's not their government. It's our government and the ways every american subscribe to unconventional threat on your favorite podcast app and sign up for breaking news from unconventional threat at unconventional threat dot com unconventional threat as a project keep our republic and is produced by district productive unconventional threat. The creation of jonathan winer. Peter eisner in paul would hold our executive producer. Is peter aubert. Our associate producer is mckenna chester keep our republicans to discover highlight and help to prevent an array of extraordinary threats to the integrity of the twenty twenty election in transition to learn more go to keep our republic dot com. Jonathan winer gary hart and tom. Rogers are members of keep our republic divine more great podcasts from district productive goto district productive dot com.

congress senate united states president george w bush donald trump institute for constitutional a supreme court al gore republican legislature max bergmann house intelligence committee denny hastert florida house House senate pennsylvania cnn Mary mcchord Mr trump legislature
Fast Money 02/22/19

CNBC's Fast Money

22:24 min | 2 years ago

Fast Money 02/22/19

"Fast money starts right now life, the NASDAQ market site. Overlooking New York City's Times Square on Melissa Leo traders on the desk or Tim Seymour. Brian Kelly, Dan, Nathan guy down tonight on fast, a number of big retailers. Reporting earnings next week for Macy's to Home Depot and Lowe's, but the chart master sees trouble brewing in the charts. He will explain. Plus check out shares of Intel soaring on an upgrade from Morgan Stanley is old school chip stock about to go parabolic. The traders will weigh in. But first we start off with the markets. The Dow surging up nearly two hundred points down as both lucky in a nine week winning streak this as US and China inch toward a possible trade deal. Let's get straight to even jobbers in Washington for the very latest details on this developing story Ayman Melissa the president met in the Oval Office today with Leo hood, the Chinese vice premier as a to high level delegations came together after a series of days here in Washington of negotiations at lower levels among the staff, the Chinese delegation announcing they're prepared to stay another couple of days here in Washington DC to contain. To hammer out. Some of the details all of the rhetoric in the meeting today was positive about the chances for a deal between the United States and China before that March first deadline to raise tariffs. Here's how the president sort of handicap the chances. I would say that it's more likely that a deal will happen. The fact that they're staying and this very high delegation misses a a man who is revered all throughout China and the vice premier so the fact that they're willing to stay for a quite a bit longer period. Doubling up the time that means something I think there's a good chance that it happens. So the president saying he thinks there's a good chance that the deal could come together. There was a strange moment though in the Oval Office when the president and his top trade negotiator. Robert lighthizer appeared to disagree about the need for a memorandum of understanding in this deal. The president sort of expressing his disdain for memorandum of understanding in general lighthizer pushing back on that disagreeing with the president. And then ultimately capitulating and saying we were we will not call anything. A memorandum of understanding again going forwards the president getting his way in negotiation with his own trade negotiator there in the Oval Office. And I think he wanted to call a term sheet as they would like in a real estate transaction aim. And so I thought I thought that was very tally in terms of what the president's context is in in making a deal so to speak commercial real estate background. That's his prison that exactly but aim in terms of secretary relations comments on making some progress about currency manipulation on the part of China to have any understanding as to what that might entail. We're gonna have to do a little bit more reporting to find out what the specifics are under that. But ultimately, I think the way to take all of this is this is a lot of positive rhetoric. Everybody is signaling that progress is being made everybody is signaling that we're getting closer to a deal. But you know, as they say in these negotiations, nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to and that sort of where they are. Ultimately, it seems that the president really wants to put the final link on this deal. Whether it's a member of remember end of understanding, or whatever it is in the end he wants to do that face to face with Xi Jinping. And that could happen at mar-a-lago in March the president said today. All right. Amen. Thank you have a great weekend. Avon? Averse from the White House, and it has been a stock market battle royale between the US and China China where we stand right now. The s&p five hundred is up eleven percent so far this year while the FX is the large cap China ETF is up thirteen percent, although it still in correction territory. So if there is a trade deal is the US your best bet or does China have more to gain guy. Can can you tell the crack staffing see two please stop adobe establish a miserable song I actually request knowing that you think it's miserable. I'm Knockin answered. So they saw we'll sit in a row now. Chan I will either be in go, Tim. But I'm going to give me a quick answer to stocks. I would rather be in. I would be in. If there's some sort of deal assume by by the way, I'm not certain it's going to be a deal, but I'll tell you Caterpillar trae back to levels that we saw knock Tober which is one fifty five and win resorts, which has had a tremendous runoff one hundred. We'll trade up to about one fifty five one sixty as well, those are the two places. I would go to things that look very similar right now commodities in China. If you look at what's outperforming in this market materials and China continue to be the story. And if you think about we talk every day, what's rallied. What's still got some room to go obviously emerging markets? China materials industrials are the ones that were most hit back in March of two thousand eighteen that to me is exactly what we're seeing the momentum. The FX I broke back above key resistance today. Shanghai back above the two hundred date first time any year. This is telling you that you're getting different market participation and different dynamics here. Yeah. Well for me. My concern is that we. Might have priced a lot of this. Right. So maybe we get this pause that refreshes here doesn't mean that I'm necessarily bears. It's just that in the US. We've priced a lot of stuff in frankly, even China, we probably priced a lot of stuff in. So instead of plane would you rather I'll go with the brother from you, another mother and checkout Europe, they've been hardest hit by this entire thing. China's their biggest customer if China's going to recover than Europe's got recovery in Europe. Yeah, europe. So like, Germany if you wanna do the E WG is the is the ATF there. The other thing that's great about going into Europe. Is you don't have the currency dynamics? You have between the US dollar and the China and the Chinese one that is likely to stay stable as moonshine cut a deal where Europe can probably cut rates weaken, the euro and do pretty well. It's going to your present. You've got a slowdown pretty much across the board. Terrible team is coming out and get better from Phoebe with very few things that they can do at this point. And all the euro. Got -til whatever your perception. Mel by the way, is what the market thinks the market you had a Batty food today in Germany the data coming out of Europe over the last two quarters has been not great. I think we've priced in Europe Nali grinding due to a stop. But that actually have negative contraction. You know, it's interesting. So what was just talking about a memorandum of understanding or something? It sounds an awful lot. Like after the twenty on December third the level of understanding. We had about a trade deal with China. We gapped up that morning. And then we just flushed after because people thought there was really not to it. And did not think that the Chinese were willing to commit to the sort of things that would take to do a standing deal not just dealing with the trade deficit look at the five hundred where we kinda stopped out here on kind of touching on resistance, very near twenty eight hundred that was the level in early December. So to me, I think there is a lot priced in unless there is something very very substantive. You're acting like this trade deal is something that has to have substance abuse. This is a trade deal. First, I talk about currency manipulation. I mean, this is something we've we've either had the ability to argue about for the last decade and found some way to at time say this is not a big deal. Both sides wanted an opportunity for an agreement. This is going to be. But it doesn't matter. What is it the currency manipulation thing? Just kind of headline, right? As soon as we have to start easing again won't. We will be manipulating our currency. What we did during your. I'm just saying, but it's all smoke and mirrors. Don't mean anything in that we address those really important issues about intellectual property and technology transfer. Those are the big issues. It's the market perspective. Dan, it doesn't matter because I don't know that this administration is going to really push for protection on IP and fraud, and all the other things that are I think both exactly what the economists are saying that these are the long term problems that need to be fixed. It's not this trade issue from the market's perspective. Let's just say there's no further escalation of terrorists. And let's say best case scenario, the tariffs that were put in place in two thousand eighteen world back. What would market reaction be done the knee jerk positive without question understanding that we've rallied some four hundred or so S and P points from summer twenty-fourth low. But then the next question is and you've asked it. So I'll answer before you ask it again is does that foot put the fed back in play became would say probably know. And I'd say it was hit reacceleration. Probably. Yes. I think there's no shot the fed comes back. I mean, they told us today that they're going to look for inflation. That's going to be above two percent before the even think about raising rates again. So I think the feds out of the picture for twenty nineteen. I just think that we probably have priced in everything here. We know we're not gonna get an intellectual property deal in the next three days. We're gonna maybe get some kind of movement forward. But that's what the markets priced in. So until the market sells off I think it's riskier to buy today. Clearly that it was a couple of weeks ago. Well, there's yes, so, but every time we think that the market can't go higher the paint trade is higher, and I'm telling you with expectations so low on global growth, I'm of the view, by the way the. Chinese economy in the second half of the year is actually going to reaccelerate I think GDP is probably going to be six point eight maybe six point seven eight percent, which is above where it is. Now, they've cut rates they've stint they gave you stimulus. They have triple our cuts. And I think the worst is presence the same thing with Europe. I'm not telling you, it's great. I'm telling you when markets are able to move are when they have moved higher in two thousand sixteen when there was no growth. It wasn't on. Hey, things are going to be great in the global growth is great is that things aren't as bad as we thought. So wearing the world where in the world on a trade deal. Would you invest listen? I think the US is obviously, you know, think about some of the businesses that have been hurt here since these terrorists went into place or since the fear of these terrorists. You know, we would see a probably increase cap backs. We know that that's been a problem for much two thousand eighteen that we're expecting all of the benefit of the tax cut. That was supposed to be in cap ex quickly got kneecap as soon as the fear of tariffs came in. And then once the terrorists did. So to me, I think the US trading mid teens multiple is pretty fair. The only thing that I get really. Nervous about is. This is that here we are in the tenth year of this economic recovery. And we have the very dovish fed. We're rates where they are where all these things that they used to dot plot against and everything there are moving the goalposts all over the place, and we have a ten year treasury yield at two six five and that doesn't say to me anything about reacceleration of global growth. It just doesn't say to me. It's not about that. Yeah. I mean, I agree with you stocks and bonds are saying two very different things in this week tells you that tail Vicks hits thirteen eight eight straight weeks, I think of market moving higher Vicks moving lower. So, but that's the whole point. I think expectations are very different than they were three months ago. And that's from markets enough to keep them inching higher. Right. And it's better. It's better. If the fed is easing for markets. We've known that over the last nine years or so, that's that's the entire point. Actually, the whole thirty year bull market is because feds have been easing the entire time. So that's actually good for stocks. I'm not saying it's good for the world. It's good for stocks on the short run. But if you're asking other places to play that haven't necessarily run as much as the stock markets. Why not energy if we're getting reflation? If we're getting a turnaround in Europe, and in China, and we're saying maybe it's going to spill over here to the US you're going to need a lot more oil. And I think energies the way to play it hasn't completely run up yet. There's the plaque. No. I like what you do. They. Oh, beaten, a trade war with the EU. They just said today that they would target companies like Caterpillar, Xerox Samsonite, if the US decides, hey, you know, what we're going to put to auto tariffs on. They've got their list of tariffs ready to go to the next. So of the Chinese this deal with the Chinese food onto the next thing black mole, but. It's a fun game. I hurt my hands. Sometimes because you want to be so quick, the whack the mole. And when my age technique. It's not forced anyway, I'll say this to answer your original question. I'll go back and say Tim would agree with this one. US steel was a forty six dollar stock. When President Trump started talking about tariffs this time last year shut it down to eighteen dollars twenty four. Now, I think that's the stock that goes higher, but I'll just throw this in because why not the Chinese of waited this long. They see what's going. Sure, they watch sixty minutes. They see what's going on in the landscaping United States. Their markets have seemingly bottomed and recovered somewhat. Why would they be in such a hurry to make some deal when they can string this thing along that would be my concern coming up as we mentioned, the NASDAQ hosting a record nine week winning streak, it's longest since nineteen ninety nine. So if you're worried the party might be over we'll tell you how you can protect your portfolio. Plus Intel soaring today, adding to its rallied this year and one analyst says the stock is about to soar another twenty percent. We'll tell you why. Are you so bullish? And later check. Here's a craft the stock having its worst day ever. But if you're losing money, don't worry, we'll tell you how to make some of it back. We're live from Times Square in New York City, much more fast money right after this. Hey, I'm John Harwood host of CNBC's Speakeasy podcast. Listen into my in-depth conversations with political decision-makers, folks. Like, John Delaney, the first declared democratic presidential candidate for election twenty twenty along with Senator Sherrod Brown. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Stephanie shrieks of Emily's list. Those interviews and more on the Speakeasy podcast. Subscribe today. Welcome back to pass money. Shares of Intel getting a boost today following an upgrade from equal weight to an overweight by Morgan Stanley. It is our called the day. The firm calling for more than twenty percent outside in the south pointing to the transition of a Bob swan into full-time CEO is a big catalyst for growth Intel's already up nearly twelve percent this year. So is this a major turning point for this stock Dan has more to do with the macro anything else? I think Bob swan. Everyone was very comfortable with that appointment didn't seem to be anybody more interesting about it. But it said it's up twelve percent of the year. It's still well off its fifty two week. Highs is trading about eleven times. Here's the thing expectations are fairly low right now, I think earnings and sales are expected to be flat you're year. And if we get any more clarity on global growth in the situation with trade with China on this company with this balance sheet where their lever to autonomous to IOT to data center. This thing is going to be in the high fifties, very soon, if the all those things sort of happen as far as trade and global growth again into. Don't you think though, they didn't tell which is drastically underperform the Sammy's as a group probably nine hundred basis points that year today is is the choice. I hear us being bullish. But I this is a table pounding moment on some level. If you believe that this whole thing's going higher Intel because of that diversification because of that balance sheet because I actually think that they tend to be overly conservative at times. And I think those are the numbers we got in the first quarter. Well, if you look talk to the sentiment all the analysts on Wall Street say all of the majority on Wall Street's either have holds or sell only about forty five percent of the analysts on Wall Street. Have a bye on this. So there's a lot more room for upgrades in this is my point. So again break above fifty nowhere. You're stop out is that's great risk reward trade. So I'm with these guys. I mean, why wouldn't you want to buy it? I tend to look over like I'm in class. I look over the students in my rights shoulding cheating for I'm not cheating. He always gets the right. But I look over ten because I make because he has these great charts and he's right fifty seven and a half. If you go back to sort of may of last year. There was a level of this top data. That's another ten ish percent from where we are. And I think that's pretty reasonable given the market we find ourselves in. That's why I think though atop says probably he looks at your screen every day. By the way, if you believe in until do you have to believe in a recovering data center which had seen a rough patch in the latest quarter as well as PC is not a huge, actually. Actually rise in two thousand eighteen. Were data center. We're going to be higher than but now they've come down, you know. And so here's the other thing. We're also getting into a point where we're going to see Hoover lift all these guys go public. We're gonna see more talk about Waymo autonomous is going to be something that's gonna be valued inside of these companies. And we're going to start thinking about who are these companies that were so levered don't forget member Invidia when it went up three hundred percent in a couple of years. What was it lever to autonomous was one of those big areas? So to me, I think it tells well-positioned new CEO who's going to have to make his own Mark go back and look at such in Dallas. If these other guys when they've taken over some of these big behemoths, they'll do some interesting things here like possibly a deal. They've been they bought a lot of things they bothered the Gulf a couple years ago. Yeah. And the thing about Intel is it's lever to multiple industries. Right. So you ask does do you have to believe in data center. You can. But you don't have to dance on video. It was one or two things that really hit this. And if you wanna play that big theme of mobility Intel's, probably one of the better ways to play. So you have multiple different levers sentiment different types of. Industries that can go with a great risk reward. The problem here is that first of all we feel better about the environment where enterprises spending on such services. That's great. Except for the fact that I will say it's becoming all very commodities in very very crowded. Everybody seems to be laying claim to this exact same space in one form or another. That's my pushback to say, hey, I think March is probably get less. Interesting than more interesting in the short run. Would you rather skit was twice in what show quickly? So I didn't do the other one that he would you tell her silence because I tell you right now. Silence. And I know the stock. Power pitch on that. We power pitch that a while back. I think it was two dollars stock. And I remember Dan looked at me and said I'd rather do so. Yeah, he. Exactly haha jokes on you there pal. But the answer your questions Zeilinger because now thirty one billion dollar market cap US Intel can make a deal, I'm not suggesting they buy Xilin, but this is sort of the sweet spot of -nology is in two thousand nineteen Intel head on over to Tracy nation. CNBC that com, I'm Melissa. You're watching fast one CNBC first in business worldwide. In the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. It's a bloodbath for shares of Kraft Heinz the stock getting slammed, but if you're bleeding money, don't worry, Mike co will tell you get some of it back. And I can't deny the fact that you like me Netflix is heading to the red carpet, but we'll have blown of Oscars really make it an award winning stock that traders way in there's much more fast money right after this. Welcome back to fast money a big weekend for Netflix as it's filled. Roma could bring home the Oscar for the streaming giants. I ever best picture nomination. It is spending. A whopping twenty five million dollars on its outskirts campaign for the movie, but can Netflix really take on the Hollywood elite media mogul and fast money friend. Tom Rogers commenting on this on CNBC squawk box earlier today. I don't think it's going to win. And the reason I don't think it's going to win. It goes to the hardier question. I think it is such a disruptive pick for the academy to end up embracing something that is really going to go to the heart of movie theatrical distribution in the whole window ING system. It has. Sal catnapped lakes win. Is it a loss for the rest of high would guy Tom Rogers says are not gonna win? They're not gonna win. Tom Rogers is the he's on this show usually sits next to him on the hook over. There loves our show is probably watching right now stud so says not gonna win. They're not gonna win. Now. In terms of the stock. Let me be clear a couple of weeks ago, and it was three thirty. I thought it would trade three hundred before three fifty and here we are at three sixty three RO, Angie wrong, as I like to say, however, go back about four five months ago at top that at three seventy five approaching that level of I think the tapes going to reverse I think if the taper verses that flips reverses as well, I don't think it has to win though. I mean, they haven't won up to this point. And it really hasn't dented the company one bit. It would be nice to have. But it's not a must have. And I think that these levels may get a little bit of a sell up, but the story with net flicks is not about whether Roma wins the movies about but not Romo Romo. Tomato. I let Disney here the way the stock has reacted since they reported their earnings which no one was particularly excited about Israeli about five percent. It's trading multi-month lows. Here just think what's happening cap. Marvel's coming in March eventers endgame in April. We're having another Spiderman in the July marvel people are going crazy when to end the year with something from the Star Wars family. Well, you know, another big weekend a winner this weekend. What's hot hot hot hot hot on the red carpet is set to like a little greener? This year is one of the luxury swag bags given to nominees is filled with cannabis infused products back. Check out. What's reportedly in the bag edibles topical HS made by Koda signature VIP membership to medicine of the angels pot. Shop even cannabis moisturizer facial oil. So your words won't be the only thing celebs are taking home. Even Hollywood might be embracing the cannabis craze, Tim, I cannabis exfoliating before the show. So I mean. I was gonna glowing extra extra soft. Nice. Look if you think about it, California is not only the biggest market in our country. It's the biggest market in the world. So this is the largest legal market. It's not a surprise when you consider perception change. And if you think about the country eighty million people live in a place where adult use is totally legal one hundred twenty house seats, twenty five Senate seats. I mean, you can put all these numbers together. And it tells you it's not shocking that this is going on. And let's face it Hollywood, you know, a little edgier than some places as it relates to stuff like this. So it's going to be, you know, even if whatever you need to do to watch the movie, I wonder if there's going to be teached see products in there that should make the Oscars. Interesting. All right. Let's see the final trades here. Tim, if you think about the recovery in China, I would make an argument that actually the casinos, especially those mccower related had been really tied to consumption patterns. I like win here. I actually think they continue to outperform PK, well energy is the economy and. So we are going to get some kind of boosting the economy from a trade deal from the fed from wherever you wanna talk about it energy X P's the way I play. Yes. Stay tuned for the Carter night into a rare tag team on Intel x RT. Oh, rip. Show that the Brad Cooper who watches the cell bradtha. Hope you invest that. Did I laugh a little too heartily? Anyway. Your head. Brad's watched right now. Good luck. Sunday night Twitter Twitter. Don't be scared. They took their medicine already them out. All right down. Move options action starts right after this break.

China US Intel Europe president Tim Seymour fed Dan CNBC Oscar New York City cannabis Germany Netflix Times Square Washington
Fast Money 01/21/20

CNBC's Fast Money

45:24 min | 1 year ago

Fast Money 01/21/20

"What is decision tech by fidelity? It's technology that can help you find a stock based on what's trending or investing goal. It's real time insights and information formation delivered in your own customized view of the market. It's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions and it's only from fidelity pretty open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services. LLC MEMBER NYSE SIPC the Nasdaq market side overlooking. New York's Times Square. This is fast money. Hi everybody I'm Brian Sullivan. You're traders on the desk tonight. Are Tim Seymour. Brian and Kelly Daniel Tonight on fast another black guy for bullying and its investors shares down again jet maker delaying the return of. It's seven thirty seven Max again. Gift is this. Should this be the final Straw for investments. Toss we're following a major developing story out of Asia for a deadly virus is spreading fast. The first confirmed case is now in the United States markets in the world on edge. We learn more. We're GONNA bring you up to speed on what we know at this hour and later longtime market bowl. Tony Dwyer leave. The Penn thing now is the time to take some profits. I'll tell you what he's got him. Aluminum nervous about the future of the market. All that ahead but we begin with earnings things. Because we've got alerts on. Both IBM and Netflix. Both stocks of the move after reporting their numbers both stocks higher and as always full team covers standing by to break breakdown. Moves Got Julia. Boston digging a Netflix. Bullets Begin Deirdre Bosa and a major move higher for IBM Little Green in the screen for big blue. That's right Brian ending it streak of declining year over year revenue. Five quarters of that. But the real question here. Brian is it too soon to call a turnaround. Remember that we saw recovery in two thousand eighteen as well. That didn't last. This quarter revenue grew by just a tenth of a percent and shares are popping partly because expectations were so low and losing some of those earlier gains now up just lower than four percent. Sustained turnaround will largely depend on Danny remedies big bet on hybrid cloud intern thirty three billion dollar Red Hat acquisition. Now there are early signs that those efforts are showing some promise this quarter. IBM says revenue hit six point. Eight billion dollars and now comprises nearly thirty percent of total revenue ahead of the report though is IBM. Saw downgrades from Morgan Stanley and from ever core in the Morgan Stanley. report this this table suggesting based on Burmese agent tenure. Seo Transition could be likely. The typical retirement age for an IBM CEO is sixty for media. Sixty the three. And she's been presiding over a turnaround without much luck for eight years now. Morgan Stanley also suggesting the big blue means they more meaningful shift in the portfolio for long term revenue growth so today was a much-needed beat and shares are up. Nearly four percent in the after hours remembered that their underperforming the SNP. Over the last quarter year. And the last decade Brian Deirdre. Thank you very much. Let's go around the horn trade. IBM Goddamn yes. Okay I understand the results. The stock is up one hundred and fifty dollars stock doc. Less than a year ago it was one hundred and eighty dollars stock and three hundred thousand one hundred forty dollar stock ten years ago. Sorry I didn't mean to be so emphatic. Award throwing names and numbers. I just look at the pop guy. You say okay good news we have to look at this holistically in a longer term. I mean I agree with you and we've said for a long time on this show the IBM is getting it wrong. There in the wrong businesses their mixes bad. But guess what a lot of tears are just said makes a lot a sense operating margins for this quarter. We're fifty one point eight percent same quarter last year forty nine and change that is significant. Why because at least their product mixes getting better and this cloud that she spoke up twenty one percent year over year? That's good and if Gina does step down after this tenure. This is the quarter to do it. So I've em is on the verge of breaking out of a four year downtrend and you know valuation has always been the reason and actually might be the reason this year and you got some downgrades the head of the earnings good okay normally. It's the train but Tim. Your point is very well taken. IBM and a lot of good people there but this is not exactly been a money maker for its investors for a long time now so color me cautious just because I think this this red hat acquisition which they paid a lot of money for it that goes north of thirty four. A billion is showing that look return revenue stream. We all know what big cap mega cap tech especially Microsoft and Amazon. Google are really getting out performance on the multiple. That's what this is all about. Because if they can start to go from software sales to return revenue and now it's about twenty percent the size of Amazon's cloud business. This is at seven point. Two billion dollar number it's meaningful it's very real. We've been watching this talk for a long time looking to make that turn. I don't think you need to jump into tomorrow and say it's it's a brand new day. Yeah I just wonder if this remedies last trick. IBM would be kind of break up. These two businesses break up the faster growing we saw done at Hewlett we saw with Ebay and pay pal a few years ago to me. It seemed like an obvious sort of choice. And she seemed like the obvious person to kind of preside over that thing and then kind of find her way to the door a little bit but I just don't think the cognitive solution some of these cloud businesses. They're big enough to kind of make the sort of difference within this legacy business. That IBM has so to me. I just don't find it too exciting right here. I don't not expect investors to Palino's actually find it really exciting guys mentions are positive catalysts for the stock you know. Let's just say sucks. Got Nowhere for a long period of time. That tells me that current management probably isn't exactly the people want to have in there. So Janine were remedy is to retire. I think the stock pops on that if they even talk about breaking it up in this market environment. I think that's good. And then the third thing is they've got a four and a half percent dividend yield in stock environment with anything that with a yield. That's getting getting bit. I've now got stabilized earnings and I've got a good dividend yield and multiple catalysts health. Care about this is the sort of market that actually is kind of rewarding being like laggards rewarding unpolished James. There's so much work that needs to be done here at this stage of what he's done they're turning around the revenue they got a four and a half percent yield. I think that's enough for this. And they're going to put twelve and a half billion of free cash flow and twenty twenty. The these. These guys are certainly giving you some sense. I would argue by the way Dan that the the markets rewarding and almost anyone and I think the market is looking for relative value. Also in Mega CAPITEC were frankly. It's hard to find any value so on a relative basis to itself you can make that argument with IBM but I'm not ready to do. The analysts community rating hold on average. How many big cap tech stocks say that? Before we move on Netflix. Just without picking on IBM Guy Dummy this whole thing about if basically if you're sixty you gotta go this. Is that a stupid policies now. Aren't they hope that guy he's got another others all because you've got these companies. You're you're doing a huge deal with red hat if somebody says Oh you know Virginia Rometty your your sex or whatever her name straight. I've heard gene for Ginny and now Virginia Lie said her actual. Because I don't know where this guy hit with Janney way you're right and I senator with a genie a genie. I should've said the CEO of IBM. You are correct but with that said I think it is a perfect time for her to leave and I think if you listen than Microsoft five years ago. Everybody's saying Microsoft is dead in the water. They can't turn that that aircraft carrier around. Guess what they got into different big business mixed brother new. CEO Look what it's done over the last three or four years. You could do where you hit an age. You gotta go I mean. He seems like relics of another era to me in some respects but whatever oy sticking with. Ibm We're going to be hearing from Virginia Ginny Rometty tomorrow morning on Squawk box live from the World Economic Forum in Davos Swiss. Let's now turn to other big name on the move in the after hours. That is netflix trading higher reporting results Julia Carson in La to break down those numbers the stock stocks of Julia but the subscriber numbers. Maybe not what everybody was looking for. Well Bryan Netflix did add more subscribers than expected in the fourth quarter eight point seven six million subscribers that surpasses the seven point six million the company itself forecast but growth did continue to slow in the US just four hundred in twenty thousand us subscribers were added versus the six hundred thousand that the company itself projected an ethics guidance for the first quarter it was edition of seven million subscribers worldwide that missed analysts projections by one and a half million subscribers. Co Reed Hastings highlighting interest in their showed the witcher despite the launch of rivals Disney plus an apple. TV saying that the WITCHER's tracking to be. Its best first season TV series with seventy six million households watching in the first four weeks. Oh coming up on the call which starts in about an hour. We're sure to hear hastings talk more about competition. He wrote that they're viewing growth. Is Consistent with recent quarters. Despite a number of new rivals also announced is changing the way in measures viewing. It's now no longer counting view as watching seventy percent of an episode or film now reporting unaccounted that. Choose to watch which means watching for at least two minutes so we'll have to see if they have any more commentary about this already thirty drawings a buzz online and also if they see if they say how many people have watched. Martin Scorsese's the Irishman is that it was popular but no numbers from from net flicks yet Bryan hold on Julius. You say if somebody theoretically watches and I'm doing the air quote thing for two minutes. They're going to consider that a view Yup. There's a here I'm looking at it right here. They say now they're reporting on households Prinz accounts that choose to watch given title. The footnote note says choose to watch and did watch for at least two minutes. That's long enough to indicate that the choice was intentional. And that is the precise definition. They say it's similar to help us are measured on Youtube the BBC player. Or how I count in the New York Times play right I mean if you just sit there and do nothing it just keeps going right. I mean well. This is only if an intentional viewings if you clicked to open something If you watch for two minutes there it it seems like they would not count a lot of play away but as you can imagine is already sparking criticism on twitter. Nothing sparks criticism on twitter. It's a land of happiness and complements. That's Julia Burston. Thank you very much okay. The reason I dwell on that a little bit vk was that we go on these numbers. Say Twenty six billion. People Watch the Irishman whatever extensively. If you've we've got to watch for two minutes something all their numbers are going to go up and it but we need I think investors to realize this and be a little careful. I would argue that if you watch the first two minutes the Irishman when you didn't need to watch the other three is coming out with five point. A lot of people don't like to see a company company changed their metrics when they're going through some competition or some struggles type thing. What concerns me more about? Here is the slowing growth in in Subscribers numbers coming up they burn through three point three billion dollars worth of cash. They say that the peak but the long-term debt is increasing now. I've got a company that has multiple competitors that are actually actually online actually coming in and I think they are going to take some market share from net flicks so for me. It's a no touch at best. Yeah I would just say there's a lot of problems in the data. I mean we got to hear what they have to say on the call but when you think about it they're gonNA anniversary this price increase that they had last year when you think of these competitive offerings that you have by some of the riches this companies on the planet when you think of Apple Dizzy that sort of thing who are underpricing. They're they're giving the first year away for free and they're taking back all of their content. I think that's a huge issue. You and then we have all these other launches in the point about the peak cash slow-burn to me you telling me that they're gonNA lose all their best content and they have all this new competition that subsidizing subsidizing these offerings and they are not going to burn more Catholics. They're tacking on a ton of debt Just don't see it. Well I I think you're right to talk about the lack of pricing power because we all know when they got up to fifteen eighteen ninety nine nobody blinked. It seemed like a big day now. The other side of that is we've now had the first quarter Disney pluses out there. Apple pluses made their announcement and here. They are showing that they actually beat on total global subs yeah and they underperformed in. US PEOPLE ARE GONNA say. That's why so I'm netflixing. I'm bullish on Netflix. I'm going to tell you that. Look and move away from linear. TV and Reed Hastings as thing seems to be focused more about this than talking about competition. There's enough and I think I heard rising tide and all this other stuff takes so look a decent quarter. I I think Dan the number you work worry about in terms of pricing is really the cost of content. And they're gonNA spend maybe eight billion dollars in twenty twenty on content as they look across at the competition. So it's less about. How much can they actually charge? It's GONNA spend. It's a great time to be alive content producer. Another time like this. I think in global history. Let's bring in somebody who doesn't would have to speculate. Because he knows from which he speaks his longtime meet executive Tom Rogers them. I gave all your titles. The show be over a Netflix view. By the way you would countdown only you high fast money. We like to hear you keep coming back. Is this that flex now. I don't think so it all and I am quite optimistic about the future net flicks you got to remember. They're playing a different game than everybody else next year. They're likely to introduce a hundred and thirty international series. We're talking about a company that is growing globally at close to thirty million subs just to put that in perspective. HBO over the last five years. With game of thrones I think probably once in a decade kind of hot property to have on pay. Hey television grew four million subs over the course of that tenure net flicks is in a very different league than everybody else the issue. I don't think it's so so much. Are they slowing because competition. Look people thought they were gonNA slow because it was gonna be bidding in disconnect. Find your favorite series binging disconnect. That didn't hurt him. A new competition going to slow them a bit. Maybe but the real issue is they pit. Sixty million two thirds of all broadband subs. They're gonNA continue to grow. Just based on the demographic trend we're probably going to see below eighty million cable and satellite households next year for the first time since two thousand thousand twenty years ago that's a trend of continued disconnect and they're going to benefit from that slower growth and they've had put growth the fact that oversees overseas. Tom Because I think we all do I think we do. Tend to get myopic and we look at the. US We talk about HBO MACs and Apple TV. Plus that's not an Indian talking about growth growth in the US. They will grow with the demographic trend that young people are not taking cable and satellite anymore. Younger households are going to continue to take Netflix. And streaming streaming services and as that demo grows older and older they will continue to benefit from that overall trend. It will not be as fast as overseas but it will continue to growl now. The idea that they're spending overwhelmingly on programming compared to everybody else is absolutely true. But if you do the math and you believe that they're going to be there. Are One hundred. Sixty five million global subs now. Probably one hundred and seventy-five million by the end of next quarter something close to that. Although they guided a little wider I think you will. It's not hard to see. Three hundred million subs in their future at fifteen dollar are PU globally. which with the price increases? They've taken you can see that happening even spending twenty billion a year twelve billion on originals. You can see this thing thrown off real cash when they hit those kinds of numbers. and that's what everybody's now looking for. Is this a cash hole that they never dig out of or is this thing gonNA produce meaningful cash cash flow and I think if you believe they can eat three hundred million subs at fifteen billion. I'm sorry fifteen dollars a month high prices that is evident Easily attainable Tom. I saw your parents on the squawk box last week. And you were brilliant. A Wolf in peacock clothing that line was genius but our people underestimating estimating what comcast has been doing over. The last six months market is rewarding. But as you think there's more reward to come. I think the issue with all the other companies other than Netflix and Amazon separate category. Whether you're talking about comcast when you're talking about. Hbo Max whether you're talking about CBS all actors. We're are you talking about Disney no matter what they're streaming play is and they're all after transitioning to streaming entertainment they gotta manage the downside of the business and the downside died of disconnects. The downside of turning cable and satellite is a really big issue. And if you're not if you're Netflix and you don't have to worry about that. You don't have to worry about collapsing. Theatrical windows and releasing movies first run where all the others do among many other issues they have to manage on the downside. They have a much much more difficult quickly. We got to let you go but I got asked about news and sports because I was talking to some friends direct. TV The only one that has the NFL Sunday ticket. You could pay and it's people say why is that on direct TV. I think it was a fifteen year contract. I believe Tom it's coming up. Should Net flicks go after the NFL. I I don't think Netflix needs to. I think there will be competition for those packages from the crowd. Whether it's Amazon whether it's Google whether it's others but I think Netflix as pure entertainment play is pretty well position. I think the issue is that de streaming wars on entertainment retainment that everybody's focused on is missing a big issue which is when cable and satellite disconnect happens and the bundle continues to decline though subscriber fees. That are supporting news. Programming like this and Sports programming like this that that that has a dwindling wendling revenue base and the issue for all the traditional guys among the other things they have to manage on the entertainment transition is how they manage all that live. Television programming programming which will be the guts will news and sports. We'll be the guts of. How does that get support over time? And that's the big question that people are nowhere near as focused on as they should be entertainment wars. Play out. It is a big question. It's a big question for a lot of people sitting around this desk as well Tom. Rogers always great to have your views. Thank you for having no thank you. Welcome back back Mr Fast Buddy. Tom Rogers right guy. What do you think I think he's right about necklace? I think he's a stud. I say that all the time and he is I mean in this business that what do they call that thing. Mount Mount Rushmore with the Gaza War. How about the Godfather? I mean that could be that as well. I mean I agree. I think Netflix this quarter if they don't if the market it doesn't sell Netflix. Off on this quarter where they have the opportunity. It's not going to sell off. I think it's sort of trade back to those April jobs. Challenge stock doesn't rally than its toast sent from. Its highs it made in two thousand eighteen. It's just it's such a laggard and I actually. There's a lot of things that I I love him to death. Fifteen dollar are Pu for this. This company globally is a pipedream. It's never happening. It's not what is going to be in India and all these other places they're never going to be in China so to me. I just think that that three hundred billion and subscribers a long ways off not gonna get fifteen dollars outside the US. I think we have not yet talked about the stock until you did there. Dan Let the bottom line is it's underperformed the triple accused cop based thirty percent review stocks. Done nothing for two years. That tells you what you need to know about a company that needs to be profitable sooner rather than later despite fight the fundamentals and the structural stuff going on in the industry all right. Good discussion there on Netflix. Basically by the way a two year stock. That's been flat all right. Bully dragging down the Dow the company facing another another major delay for that seven thirty-seven Maxwell debate. What is next for Boeing at its investors and later longtime Margaret Bull? Tony Dwyer says time to take profits. Now why he has turned a little bit cautious. He says we are headed from here. And as always you can watch or what's the new US live on the Golan the CNBC APP the live from Times Square and back after this. What is decision tech by fidelity it's technology Collagen? That can help you find a stock based on what's trending or an investing goal. It's real time insights and information delivered in your own customized view of the market it. It's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions and it's only from fidelity open an account today at fidelity dot com uh-huh slash trading fidelity brokerage services. LLC MEMBER NYSE SIPC. I welcome back another delay for Boeing shares tumbling more than three percent the company saying it does not see federal regulators signing off on seven thirty seven. Max Return to service service until June maybe July or later stock now at its lowest level in a year or even more delays on the way. What might that mean Tim Seymour for the stock? Well the personal this is Boeing doing a complete one eighty in terms of how they're approaching the market. So they're doing this with a Lotta continua conservatism. which is something that I think the? FAA's wanted them to do. And if if if you if you listen to the new management team they're certainly on a charm offensive in that direction when you look at the just. The estimates on the company terms of free cash flow in terms of leverage every push out now now is something that analysts can put right into the stock price If you look at the charts raking three twenty three twenty five and I know you can you can kinda bend the numbers around with the stock like this. But today's break. Nick was a decided break. I think on the chart I agree with them. We've said it had hold that three twenty level it held it bounced look good. This news is disastrous. astras that Choon Ninety three low I think on Christmas Eve of two thousand one thousand nine hundred is absolutely in the crosshairs. I mean now. The market's going to continue to shoot. Shoot first ask questions later and Boeing his absolutely in that in that space so I think you see to ninety before you see it back up to three fifty here Brian as anybody. Nobody does dove into the you know right now. We're just talking about getting this plane. Backup to service. I've talked about slot and maybe I'm wrong but nobody seems disgust. What happens when it returns to service with the public? Look and the airlines. It's going to be hit to the airlines one. They're going to be missing these planes for the summer. So do we look at a ual. An American and South West and also what happens the airlines whenever it returns the service if a good percentage of the passengers refuse to get on it I think most passengers are going to everybody. I don't believe I think most passes are going to say. I don't want to be on with hogwash. Most people just get out. I don't know I I've asked a lot of people I don't know anybody who's GonNa get on it. Lots of people have said. Hey maybe you rename the plane. I don't think that's GonNa work and the other thing. I don't think we've priced. is now that you have this. reputational damage to Boeing. Everybody every analyst is going to start looking at every other product reports that the air force isn't happy with the product. It goes down the line line so I think three hundred holds. I think you wait until Warren Buffett starts buying this thing it comes out Sunday. Warren Buffett bought a ten percent below market. That's the day by Bali. Yeah just I mentioned this. I can't think back in my career and see a company that had almost eleven billion dollars in net income in one year basically goes to a billion you know and not the stocks down thirty percent from its highs. Just you know what six nine months ago to me it. Just the stock has been outta whack. It's been disconnected from the fundamentals. And I think that June or July seems optimistic at this point. So at some point you're gonNA see analyst are taking ratchet to the two thousand twenty estimates and who knows what happens but to me you gotta remember this Dr One hundred hundred early two thousand sixteen traded above four hundred last year to me. I think there's probably more to because I thought they were still producing the eight hundred nine hundred seven they were Philip. Correct correct being said No. This is their seven thirty-seven product. This is their product but they have a ton of inventory already and I you guys could all be right on this. But why why wouldn't they be more conservative rather than more aggressive. And that's that's what I heard today. I don't think it's up to them though I think the FAA has a huge part to play. Or sure. And I don't think I mean they are going to be Uber. Conservative the FAA. With this. I think well pashtoons lot but just what other choices do you have out there in terms of flying an airplane and I think that's something that's going to keep bombing in much better. Hannukah learned today. They are still flying the Max. They're flying by moving it around from various locations so they are open the air occasionally. I learned that today because because they got to get it from Tulsa to Victorville California or vice versa for the latest on bullying head over to our website at CNBC DOT com. Meantime here's what else is coming up on fast. Asian stocks getting rocked has a mysterious new virus spreads across China and the first case is confirmed in the US. We break down the impact on the markets. Plus some of the greatest investing minds in the world are converging in Davos this week and they have very different views of where the market is is going. So booze right. We've got that and a lot more when fast money returns welcome back. We're following a major developing story that has having impact on the markets around the World World Center for Disease Control Confirming the first case of China's corona virus in the United States. Let's get right down to make with more on what we know and we don't know at this so a Brian will. The first patient in the United States confirmed to have this novel. Coronavirus is a man in his thirties in Washington state. He arrived in snohomish county where he lives on on January fifteenth after traveling from China where this outbreak has been going on. Since last month authorities haven't yet detailed which flights he toke but said they're working on identifying anyone who you may have come into contact with him so they can be monitored for fever and respiratory symptoms. Still they say the risk to the general public is low. Now here's what we know about the virus. It's in the same family family as SARS and murders and it does appear to be able to spread between people. What's not known is how easily it spreads which will make a major difference in the scope of this outbreak so farther Arthur more than three hundred confirmed cases mainly in China and a few nearby countries and six confirmed deaths here in the US the CDC is implemented entry screening at three US airports San Francisco Lax New York Staff K. and today said it's expanding at screening to Atlanta and Chicago as well? The patient in Washington arrived before the CDC put those measures in place. Meanwhile an emergency committee of the World Health Organization will convene tomorrow to determine whether this outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. And what recommendations to make to manage it and work is already ongoing on potential vaccines and treatments. A vaccine at the age and a treatment candidate a drug company regeneration but of course Brian it is still early days overdue scary stuff at a big story make troll thank you very much right. Outbreak fears are rattling investors around the globe the Asia markets tumbling Overnight and check out some of the casino stock seems like Mgm Resorts Las Vegas Fans and Milko. They're all selling off got big properties obviously in Macau and the travel. Names like Royal Caribbean Norwegian cruise. Lines and breaking bookings rather also in the red so. There's clearly real fear surroundings outbreak. Tim What is your take on the market reaction what would that in any insensitivity. Because I don't there's obviously people that are sick around the world and this is a big global health issue but I just tell you for many markets perspective in someone that was investing in emerging markets when SARS was first diagnosed and became this This epidemic that people thought was going to be a pandemic ultimately the economic impact was zero. It was short-lived if anything and I think the reaction today is one where people are gonNA regret selling something into this kind of weakness. Now it's fair enough but Wynn resorts for example. Go back and look what the April twentieth high was. I believe it came in around one fifty. One look where we just topped out at around fifty one talking about wind reports. I believe on January thirtieth breath with these headlines might instinct. Is You have a bit of a double top here in the short term. I think it sells off. I mean people aren't going to buy it until you get the all clear. I think you've got to post earnings to reengage. In W I n your next guest says this part of the corona virus could have an impact on your money. Let's bring Tony Dwyer Canaccord. It's chief market strategist. He just took down short term forecast for the overall market. Tony obviously you know we asked you to come on. We weren't really dealing with this even just a couple couple of days ago. We'll get to your primary call in a moment. How does this corona virus in two thousand and three with SARS you saw Chinese domestic spending absolutely collapsed? It came back but it collapsed and the world is rattled. Well that happened again. It really have a short-term impact it was a market that obviously was not prepared for that kind and of that kind of disruption but in the. US I go back. And I look at it in two thousand three occurrence and it didn't have any impact at all. It had a lot of fear in the headlines but didn't really they have a market impact. So I'm kind of with Timmy Brian. I don't really think it should have a long. And that has nothing to do with why we downgraded market offensive. I know that's why I try to get. Ah Introducing you but at the same time it layers on. It's one of those things that you know. I think the most important thing we can do in the media at times where you get these headlines in these his fear based things is actually step back and look at. What's the history of these things when you get an impact and creates a short term drop but ultimately when it gets resolved? You just get right back so so unless unless you believe it's going to become World War Z.. With with Brad Pitt. You gotta Bet that that it's going to be temporary and it's probably not a great investment decision so Tony you've been bullish and spot on your turning cautious. I want to kind of quantify that is this one of your short term calls where we've gotten overbought too far too fast put. The bull market is still intact or you kind of changing your tactic. It's so the last few times I've been on I've been talking about not chasing the market. Bk I've been talking about holding your positions right if I was as you know bullish last year. So I'm fully and fully invested. I was saying. Don't add new money but stay in those offensive sectors. There's let them momentum work for you it is now becomes so extreme that especially in information technology that it warrants more aggressive take profit call for for example we have. We looked at when the SL which is the relative strength index for the information technology sector got to eighty two on the weekly close so the fourteen week. RSI got to eighty two. It's only happened four times before since Nineteen Ninety K.. Your median drop was thirteen percent. The only very low drop and Infotech vo-tech was two percent and even there that was in one thousand nine hundred five. You could've bought it better in one thousand nine hundred ninety six so the point is it's not a if if you look at the chart those aren't the peak. I don't WanNa make the peak call but it can be a nasty peak and I think that's what's kind of lineup changed your earnings estimates. You're not building I love. I Love I will not unless there's a fundamental change in the earnings outlook or the Fed. Change my target. That's just just chasing my tail so my target as you know. Dan Is thirty four forty. It's been there on one hundred and seventy two and earnings and I see no reason. James had that's the other part of my question so if you look at Q.. Four for we're tracking below two percent GDP and look what happened in Q.. Four we saw this massive expansion of the balance sheet. We saw three rate cuts in the back half of the year. That sort of thing. How do we get to these? He's highs single digit earnings growth on the SNP if we don't have more accommodation what you're seeing globally and one of the reasons that we've stayed bullish otherwise otherwise I'd just go outright negative. One of the reasons you want to stabilize is number one. The global monetary authorities every single one of them is going to continue to print money so of the economic data gets a little bit weaker. They'll come out and do more secondarily a big part of it was this inflection off of such historically weak global growth like all the market. PM My dad is going into mid two thousand eighteen. They were tragic. They were about as bad as you've ever been in history now you've inflicted positive than new. Export orders are picking up up the the percentage of market. PM is showing positive year to year. Changes are picking up. So here's the risk to my story. I heard a couple of guys and gals talking today about how the risk is if you do get this economic acceleration and the yields go up in the Fed tightens. That'll do it. I don't think that's it. I think the looking at the wrong thing at this point. I I think the risk is you've had this monetary easing and the Fed is still too tight and you just get this temporary lifting growth and expectations and then it rolls. So I'm watching the initial unemployment claims. I'm watching the market manufacturing data. I'm listening to the conference calls. One thing I wanNA point out it's going into this earnings even though you're right Dan thanks have been produced a little bit. Everybody's pretty optimistic. After the financials which is had been one of our overweight sectors you've actually seen a reduction induction after the good news in the financials. You've seen a reduction in the blended estimate bottoms up estimates. So ex financials even with the better than expected report. They've come down a little bit so we'll call you bearish dwyer because it's not bearish kind of maybe the peak for now might might be Tony Dwyer we appreciate you coming on. Thanks very much during you tomorrow morning. You do not WanNa Miss. President trump will speak with Joe Kernan at the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland again tomorrow morning a five. Am Eastern time such DVR's as well Joe with President Trump. All right speaking of the president coming up but a big day in Washington the impeachment retrial getting underway. We're going to take you live PAPPA hill where we stand right now on a long and so far contentious day one and speaking of earnings began burnings stock reports results before the bell by options. Traders are betting on it big time when it reports more and options action. There's your mystery mystery chart fast money for this just in case you missed it a few minutes ago before with a break on a major interview tomorrow. President trump will sit down with Joe Kernan for the World Economic Forum Internet Five Am eastern time. It's in Davos Switzerland. By the way some reason you're the west coast set your DVR as well cheek check it out on. CBC Dot Com as well. But Joe sit down with President trump. Well that interview comes. As the impeachment trial gets underway underway in the Senate on boys live on Capitol Hill with born. Exactly where we stand as day one I I expect comes to some sort of wrap. And what could be multi week process. Cheer along. O'Brien the Senate is now hearing arguments over whether to subpoena documents from the State Department related to that delay of aid to Ukraine. This is not going going to pass. But it is part of Democrats strategy to methodically force votes and therefore a public debate over whether witnesses to testify in the trial and what what types of evidence should be admitted. The real test will be witnesses and documents will are Republican. Senators serves pressure McConnell. So that we really have witnesses and documents produced either now or after the arguments are made now Schumer spoke to reporters during a brief break in the proceedings because senators are actually not allowed to speak. Wild trial is going on. They cannot use electron electronics. They have to take handwritten notes and there are reports that a few of them may have nodded off during parts of the trial and Schumer did not say though. How many amendments stomach rats plan to bring up tonight so everyone is bracing for many more hours of debate ahead and then Brian Tomorrow's Senate Republicans are GonNa turn around and hold hold a signing ceremony on the MCA trade deal? So you can see. They're trying to create a little bit of counter programming impeachment. Okay Ilan Moyal on thank you very very much. I'll let's go around the Horn guys trade this obviously we had a guest on the exchange today. Guy I mean and they said they'd hold Dan Clifton of strategic they said they pulled a bunch of institutional astute investors said about seventy five percent of the Sushi investors believe that trump would be reelected. I mean they liked him or wanted him to be reelected but they believe that to be the case is is there a risk here where everybody is too optimistic that there won't be that even at small percentage chants hell risk. I agree I mean I think there is a terrorist to this. And when you couple it with Tony Just said and we've talked about at this search twenty different indicators right now metrics that are flashing red now if this was just in a vacuum. I'd say no discount a given everything else that's going on. I do think there's inherent risk. I kind of think of south of thirteen makes zero sense in this environment. Okay well it's there. It is a lot of things coming up. It's cold it's beautiful. There are tons of opinion swirling around. We're going to take a deep dive into the view from Davos but with the big money and big thinkers are saying later on Jayjay reporting earnings earnings. Tomorrow what can you expect from this red hot stock stick with this one for fast money too. I'm more optimistic about stocks about but because when you look at the earnings we're going to I think we're going to get some pretty good earnings growth. This year I mean the economy. When you have unemployment rate this low you you bring in a lot of consumption especially people that are low wage workers? They tend to consume one hundred percent of their income issue. Is You can't jump into cash. Asia cash is trash. Okay you have to have a well diversified portfolio. At first you have to be global and you have to have ballots. I think you have to have a certain amount of gold in your portfolio. Or you have to have something to tarn. We're just again in the craziest monetary fiscal mix and history history It's so explosive. It's it defies imagination and. I don't think anything's changed. It reminds me a lot of early ninety nine or so that is part of the view for the World Economic Forum in Davos. Obviously Three Wall Street titans there three very different opinions wins on the market. So Dan Nathan. Who Do you believe is getting it right out of that esteemed group? Can I say who I think. Dan Thinks I'm sure Dalia untutored doing just fine. I you know here's the thing I actually think in trump. When he spoke this morning he knocked on the Fed he knocked on interest rates? Here as being too high. I think one one of the is going to be a great trade. This year is going to be long t lt long. US Treasury yields going lower. I just don't see what the impetus for them going higher and if we do get that earnings earnings growth. I still don't see rates higher. What happened last time? We saw rates go up with stocks at the end of two thousand eighteen. We stocks get creamed so it's interesting in the bond market would happen over the last couple of days. Is You actually saw real rates. which is inflation? bindis bonds. Go negative out to five years. This is the the feds tips treasury inflation that that hasn't happened in five six years and the last time we saw that you saw gold rip. You saw stock rips. You saw any hard asset rip. Why because if you're holding money out the five years you're actually losing money and that is a huge driver of asset price which gives you a little Dallaglio there and I think not? Surprisingly you had the full spectrum there delio sat right in the middle talk about diversification but he did talk about some of this but at the same time putting a portfolio together. I simply say it's hard not to in this environment. Think about asset bubble moments. Because this is what the Fed set out to do. Let's make no mistake. They set to create acid inflation. And they're being very successful. It may not be in all of our best interest and it may actually be financial oppression. But that's what we had. Obviously you know listen Scott Minor. I'm more of a bond guide guy but the reality he's busy awesome. Bonds Stink go with the equity markets. I mean it's throwing the in his opinion they stink. I'm more in a Dan Nathan camp. WHO's not a bond guide? I think T- Lt continues to rally again greatest economy in the history of mankind and we have a ten year yield at one seventy seven. It's telling you something I think. Gold does go higher from here and listen to Paul Tudor Jones. Think about it heap. Keep he thought about his words and he still came out with something that provocative what he didn't eighty seven. I mean he he was there you go. We got a lot more coming from Davos tomorrow. In fact we've got an interview with the president tomorrow morning. Joe Current president trump sitting down live from donaldson every at five am eastern time remember. squawk box starts early tomorrow because of Davos of can't live set your dvr big interview. There by the way also inducted Jamie Dimon. The CEO Uber and James Quinn. It all kicks off tomorrow. Special Squawk box longer version live from Davos by the way Janine remedy also in that feeling good good how options traders are gearing up for J. J. earning fuss what are we going to check on our Kramer camp. Jim was chatting Costco. CEO Stockton on fire this year. You're you bite him bulk. It's gyms full interview coming up at the top of the hour on mad money. In the meantime we are live at the Nasdaq. And we're back right up here. Welcome back shares of Johnson Johnson. He got another fifty two week. High all this head of tomorrow's earnings and options traders are betting even more gains with the company reports results. Let's get down to Mike. Cohen San Francisco to break down the options action. Like sure so we saw more than two times. The average daily options volume in Johnson and Johnson going into earnings right now. The options market is implying. A move of about two point one percent percents. That's slightly less actually than the two and a half percent that it's averaged over the last eight quarters and where we saw much of the opening activity today was in the February twenty eighth expiration expiration one fifty two and a half strike calls those were being purchased for about a dollar fifty five so buyers of those calls or risking about one percent of the current stock price on a bet that the stock could rise about three and a half percent or so by February. Twenty eighth to get above that break-even now what's interesting to me. If you take a look at the distribution of prices after earnings. You're going to see how inexpensive options are while asset prices and everything else have gone up options. Prices are still quite low. All you would need three percent three nine percent move to the upside to benefit or war if it went down more than one percent. You're better off buying these calls than buying the stock all right. Thank you very much for more options. Action always tune into full show Fridays five thirty. PM Eastern time. I'm all right up. Next is your final trades. Obviously people think of one of our main competitor Uber but I think about our competition as the transportation status quo and right now the average American household spends nine thousand dollars every your own and operate in a car that they used four percent of the time. I think that's ridiculous. Our opportunity is to give people affordable accessible transportation. Like never before your co founder. And President John Zimmer speaking to CNBC the company announcing a bicycle sharing partnership with NBA superstar. Lebron James You can read more on on our website. CNBC DOT com lift by the way. Underperforming Uber this year. Maybe your thoughts on these stocks. Lebron goal of but if you look at these stocks it's eleven percents had a big run big downgrade actually in the last two days. You great from seventy eight to sixty four Steve Downgrade from seven need to sixty one. I think I don't think you need to chase this one. Okay don't chase lift it. It is time now to go around the Horn and our final traits. Tim Why don't we start with you while. Jj might be a bit of a chase here too but this is a very different company in fact if you look at twenty twenty farmers going to grow six percent I I think they're medical devices. Starts to reaccelerate here. It's not crazy cheap but I do think in this environment if you are nervous. This is a great company so the big knock on goal has always been. It costs money to hold on to it in a negative real rate environment. That's out the window gold reptile Dan. Yeah that's what I would not be chasing after that. Quarter and that sub guidance is to sell into solar netflixing tonight. Brian despite my butchering of her name I think. IBM is turned. The proverbial corner likes the big. The big could stop and their stocks popping on that guys. Thank you very much watch tomorrow. Mad Jim Cramer starts right now. What is decision tech by fidelity? It's technology that can help you find a stock based based on what's trending or an investing goal. It's real time insights and information delivered in your own customized view of the market. It's smarter trading technology acknowledgee for smarter trading decisions and it's only from fidelity open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services l._L._C.. Member N._Y._S._E. S._I._P._C..

Netflix US IBM Dan Timmy Brian Tim Seymour Davos CEO Fed Tony Dwyer Lebron James Disney Asia CNBC apple Boeing Tom it
Morning Joe 1/12/21

MSNBC Morning Joe

48:48 min | 2 weeks ago

Morning Joe 1/12/21

"Good morning and welcome to morning. Joe it is tuesday january twelfth along with joe willie and me we have former. Us senator now and nbc news and msnbc political analyst. Claire mccaskill co founder of punchbowl news. Jake sherman he's an msnbc politic- political contributor. He'll be here in just a moment and former assistant director of the fbi. Counterintelligence division frank. The lucy joins us this morning. His new book is the fbi way inside the bureau's code of excellence. So we got frank here. So it's a frank. I went to law school country. Lawyer scott really don't understand these strange words than you. All jumbled together but i'd like to coppell Couple of federal criminal statutes. Because i think it's a good place to start this show because i think with all of the ground noise going on all of all of the questions about who voted what way i think. We're missing the bigger picture. And i want federal authorities to know that the people of the united states of america are going to pressure them every day to hold these traitors to hold these seditionists to the full extent of the law. And i understand. There are a lot of people out there who call themselves evangelical. 's that no longer believing the word of god that now worship false idols. That haven't read the new testament having read the gossip. That's fine that's fine. You and jesus okay. That's between you and jesus but when you storm the capital that's between the federal government and you and we are the people we are the people you're you you try to take over our house you trashed our house. You beat up bar police officers. You tried to kill our speaker. You tried to kill our vice president. You are going to be held accountable. And then maybe when you're in jail for a long time maybe somebody can slip you a bible and you can start reading the gospels again and maybe even read some of the old testament about what happens to nations when they worship false idol so that as a backdrop wanting everyone suction two three eight four seditious conspiracy and stop me. If this doesn't apply. Keep the picture there. Yeah if two or more persons at any state or territory or in any place. Subject to the jurisdiction of the united states conspire to overthrow put down or to destroy by force. A government of the united states are to levy war against them are to oppose by force the authority there of our to force to prevent hinder or delay the execution of any law of the united states or by force to seize take or possess in e property of the united states contrary to the authority thereof they shall each be fined not more than five thousand and imprisoned not more than six years. There are others that actually were updated. That's in nineteen forty eight. This one says than years. Now of course it was updated in nineteen ninety four and updated frank to twenty years and so frank you look at the language. Let's put it up for more time. You look at the language frank. And you tell me how these people who were breaking into the capital and we're now whimpering and winding with there being taken off of airplanes. They don't understand that they've committed treason against the united states of america that they are involved in a seditious conspiracy by force. Hinder delay the execution of any law of the united states. That's thing this wasn't just any law. This was actually one of the cornerstones. The united states constitution this was the port of the constitution that separated us from every other country in the world. John adams did it first and eighteen hundred when he voluntarily walked away from the presidency after he lost he didn't seize power. it shocked countries across the world. That this brand new constitutional republic. We'd have a peaceful transfer of power and so there was written in the united states. Constitutional guarantee that peaceful transfer of power. And this was the day that the constitution set that our representatives are elected representatives. Were to count the electoral votes as required by the constitution of the united states. And those people on those scr on screen. I'm sorry i'm a simple country lawyer. But even i can figure out. That is a conspiracy to commit sedition against the united states of america. Please tell me where. I'm wrong and please tell me if i am not wrong. Why the hell. These people shouldn't be charged by federal prosecutors to the fullest extent of the law and be sent to prison for twenty years joe. There's a lot to unpack there. But i'm going to take the easiest. No brainer section of the question. I these are seditionists. And you don't need to have a law degree to understand that. They have violated the sedition laws of the united states. Now i'm not necessarily talking about the maps. Massive crowd that wandered in behind the organizers and the most violent and didn't even realize where they were and took pictures and wondered aloud how this happened. I'm talking about the people who had the intention to do. It traveled with the intention to do it. Conspired with others and Enacted violence against not only people officers and our legislators but intended to disrupt our government processes. There is no question that the charge sedition applies to them. And here's here's what what's happening. Joe there's a race against the clock right now with the fbi. They've got a pending inauguration to secure. They've got to build cases like you talked about. Identifying organizers taking an enterprise approach to the investigation and so what we're seeing is arrest now on complaint. Then we're going to see grand juries sitting and indictments for much much heavier charges against america and one of those charges for at least. A handful of organizers will be sedition. I want to go back earlier to something you said. Because it's something i'm passionate about. And you mentioned evangelical christians. You mentioned people who think they're patriots right now and they're doing the right thing for america. One of the ways you d radicalize the population and sadly we've learned this lesson from the international terrorism side of things is that you continually exposed to the truth and you give them other options. The problem is these people have lost sight of their code their core values. There is misplaced loyalty. They are not loyal to a country anymore. They are loyal to a person. I wrote this book that launches today because the fbi has got it right about how it preserves its core values inside and the nation's core values distilled it down to the seven seas. Guess what the i see is in the book code code from key codes codes of conduct. Come from keeping your eyes on your core values. We have americans who have lost sight of the core values of america. The second see in my book is conservancy. What's that the concept that collectively every single one of us is responsible for preserving the core values of our group company community and country. And we've lost it the most disturbing thing of all joe that's been developing over. The course of the last forty eight hours is that we may have had law enforcement officers. Who have lost their code. Lost their core values. Don't understand who to be loyal to and we're hearing reports of fifteen capital. Police officers suspended. We're hearing reports that city. Police departments across the country are opening internal affairs cases for officers. That have lost their way and sadly. I'm here to tell you. That's factoring into the security. Preparations for the inauguration. Why because while we always have counter surveillance looking at parameters now we have to have counter surveillance looking at cups. During the inauguration of a new president will end of course we read and we roll arise when we read about problems at having with neo nazi center infiltrating their police force infiltrating their security forces. Were having the same problem in the united states of america right now. It's a fascist president who's inspiring people again. Go against their code. Mika the code the bible the constitution which of course hypocritically they they hold up both but they're worshiping an idol and you look at their actions they shall be judged by their actions. They shall be judged by their fruits. This is not even close call as far as being part of this addition put on their facebook page. Hey let's go up to the capital and stop this. Let's go up to the capital and be part of this. This revolt. Guess what that sedition that is addition and those people need to go to jail for twenty years if they came up and broke into the capital and trashed the united. Look at the tax on the media. Here rejection of sedition a rejection of treasonous acts rejection of coup attempts as you said jell separates us from other countries around the world and willie republicans in congress. Who aren't speaking out as vehemently and passionately as joe is right now who cannot recognize the accountability. That is needed here. How can they call themselves. Patriots how can they call themselves servants to this country and not seditious themselves. They shouldn't call themselves. Patriots if they can't condemn what we saw on wednesday and well we know. Maybe coming on the inauguration next week we know from reporting. We know from what we're seeing on the internet. We know from what we're hearing talking to members of congress and national security people that what we saw last wednesday maybe the undercard to the main event for what's being planned around the inauguration which is why you're seeing this stepped up security so claire mccaskill the fact that so many of your former republican colleagues in the senate and republicans in the house can't stand up and say once and for all it may be too late but say once and for all today it should have said a long time ago. That joe biden won this election. President trump cut seventy four million votes but he came up short. It was fair and square. It's time to move on and support the new president. You don't have to like what happened but you have to come to grips with reality why. Why can't republicans stand up and say that to their voters the republicans on capitol hill have bought ended. The lies from day. One day they either ignore them or they look the other way or worst of all worst of all embrace them and the big lie. Then donald trump started committing the crime against america that donald trump began really began months ago when he started telling people that believed in him that if he didn't win the election was a fraud and he continues to embrace the big lie and unfortunately the majority of republicans on capitol hill voted for the big lie even after they watch donald. Trump's supporters beat police officers with an american flag. So that's where we are. And if we want unity. And i think joe biden desperately wanted i think all of us want unity. We want coming together. We want to stitch this back together. It has to begin with republicans acknowledging that there was no mass massive fraud that donald trump's had all the evidence and the evidence was not there. it was rumors. It was internet conspiracies. It was edited videotape. It was people trying to make a buck. It was anything but massive fraud and until republicans can do that until they can reject the big lie. They can't spend making even open their mouths about unity. Shut up about unity until you can state the obvious that there was a big lie. An unfair and by the way lindsay graham on the floor that night he said enough is enough. They were not eighty two thousand people. Underage voted in georgia. There was not fraud in georgia. Enough is enough. it's over. He didn't say. I've been lying all this time. And i tried to get georgia due at the president did but he at least said it's over and there was no fraud. Prut and mika republicans aren't being asked to condemn president's tweets they're not being asked to condemn something. That happened on cable news. They're being asked to stand up in this moment in our country's history and to help prevent a terrorist attack on the united states next week read the reporting talk to national security officials. Talk to anyone in washington. That's what is in the works here. Republicans being asked to stand up and tell the truth. Many of them that trouble doing that over the last several months around this election and stop a terrorist attack on america. Well now does something that hadn't happened in trump's entire presidency house minority leader. Kevin mccarthy reportedly stood up to him. Axiom is reporting that during a thirty minute phone call yesterday with mccarthy president trump falsely blamed antiques people for storming the capital last week. That's a lie that they tried to spread around to no avail. A white house official and another source familiar with the hall. Tell us that mccarthy would have none of it telling the president quote it's not antifa it's maga- i know i was there. The white house official described the calls tents and digressive at times with trump ranting about election fraud and exasperated mccarthy cutting into say stop. It's over the election is over. Stop it is over. The election is over. it's not it's not hard. republicans stop it. It's over the election is over. And if you tell. Americans this mega an amazing thing may happen. We may actually be able to prevent further murders of capitol hill police officers. We may be able to prevent further abuse against law enforcement officers. They killing of five people in the capital insurrection against the united states of america. Riots against the united states of america s. If if they will tell the truth that they know is the truth that every federal court with trump judges said was the truth. Then maybe maybe that maybe those are the words. You stop it. it's over. The election is over during a conference call with house. Republicans yesterday mccarthy told members that trump bears some responsibility for the riot but mccarthy was one of the over one hundred house. Republicans who voted to challenge biden's election win and his newfound pushback against the president may have a lot to do with campaign donations. A growing wave of big businesses say they will suspend or review their campaign donations in the wake of last week's riot at the capitol. Many are saying they would stop toning donating to republicans who objected to the election certification. The growing list of those corporation includes dow mariette. Blue cross american express airbnb. Best buy mastercard as well as comcast the parent company of nbc universal so far thirty three companies by either temporarily halted all political action committee donations donations to lawmakers who voted against certifying electoral college votes. Or we'll take the unprecedented events of last week into account when considering future political donations other companies said. They are reviewing their procedures for political donations. But they will continue to give money through their political action. Committees sherman of course the race for twenty twenty. Two in the house begins now and kevin mccarthy understands that. He can't do that if he's got over. One hundred members that have the political mark of cain on them. That aren't going to be touched. And what corporations in the united states of america can support a house member. That voted for insurrection. Against the united states of america at the end of the day. That's what it's all going to boil down to. So it did. Mccarthy have his road to damascus experience because these corporations started pull the plug on a republican donations. Well a few things to keep in mind number one. It's not the like you said. Joe it's not these people who came to the capital that are funding. Donald trump and kevin mccarthy in the senate republicans big corporations that give big checks the nrc. See the party's campaign committees superpac. So you're absolutely right that. He has a big problem on his hands. But the larger problem for mccarthy is that i. I understand what he said on the private call but mccarthy a call yesterday with house republicans didn't say that he's not taking responsibility for Or is not publicly. Blaming donald trump. He's not saying going to be any repercussions for his actions. He's not doing the things that shows that he understands publicly. What donald trump did here and and trust me. I was in the building. I know who was there but there is nobody who was in. That building was seen mitch and who is a free thinking. Natural naturally intelligent human being that cannot look at the president and say you called for people to strong. You call people come up to the capital day. Came up to my place. Were kevin mccarthy's place of work and they storm the building so people normal republicans. Now's republican conference not people who follow on not these lunatics who believe these conspiracy theories but real freethinking. People want to hear something from mccarthy and mccarthy needs to have some sort of reaction year that goes beyond maybe we should. we should Censure him or it's not it's not antifa people. Wanna see that from kevin. I'm hearing that all over. People wanna hear some reaction from him. Such jake where does impeachment stand and especially in light of what these companies are are doing and considering the the no fly list story which will get to in just a moment. Could that impact impeachment votes. Where does impeachment stand first of all so we have at the top of punchbowl. Am this morning that up to twenty republicans are going to are expected to vote for impeachment between ten and twenty. That's a tiny sliver of the two hundred member house republican conference but it's it's it's massive compared to the zero republicans that voted for peach back at twenty nineteen. I think listen. I think people are trying to in the capital finding artful way to break from trump. But frankly and i say this often but people just don't have the backbone and and they need to find the backbone of twelve people will just consider them to be joked so I think impeachment is going to die. It's going to pass the house. It's gonna die in the senate most likely And and going to move to the next congress. But i do think there's just going to be continued Ways to try to prevent donald trump for getting the white house again clare. Joe biden said yesterday he he'd like two bifurcated the impeachment process meaning. He wants to begin his agenda january twentieth. But we'll respect if democrats in the senate want to move forward with the trial impeachment even after the president has left office. There's some legal question about how that would work exactly. But what are you hearing from your old friends around congress about how. This may play out as jake said. Democrats already have the votes to impeach. That will move quickly then. It moves to the senate. What happens from there. I think going to happen. There is a little notice provision that was put in the law. When we had the rice in scare on capitol hill they passed a little resolution. That changed the senate rules. Allow the majority leader the minority leader to call the senate back from recess without having to have unanimous consent of all hundred members so what that means is chuck schumer is going to be in a position once if the house and peaches and they do it quickly. Then chuck is in a position where he can say to mitch mcconnell. We don't have to wait. All you have to do is sign your name on this piece of paper and we're back in session and we could begin work on an impeachment trial that will put a lot of pressure on mitch mcconnell because there are members i think that are ready to vote for conviction in the senate republican members. Besides mitt romney. The bifurcation issue is really just as simple. They could do hearings for confirmations in the morning and they could conduct the trial in the afternoon but they have the ability to get started early. All they have to have is a cooperation of one. Guy that's mitch mcconnell. So frank here. We are now a week almost a week. From the time of the capital insurrection. The capital seeds capital riots. What what what can you. What can you tell us looking at law enforcement you piecing together. What went wrong. So i've been calling this not an intelligence failure but a failure to act on available intelligence. That makes it a security failure. Nbc broke the news a couple of days ago. That f. b. i. actually provided it's intelligence concerns regarding violence to the capitol police to the washington metro police similarly nypd until unit. Did the exact same thing so not an intelligent failure but not acting unavailable intelligence. That raises the question of why and now. We're looking at suspensions of capital police officers. We're hearing about national guard not being deployed or deployed delayed deployment. And we've got to look at the role of executive leadership in the police department but farther up who was pulling the strings and saying we're going to have a limited footprint. We don't like the optics of this. Was this a strategy. This is where we're headed moving forward on the manhunt side. The fbi is racing the clock right now. All fifty six field offices monumental task. Joe i am. I am hearing that. They are pulling their hair out with regard to the vast numbers of threats that exist on social media. Imagine it's your job in the new york city field office to wade through people saying i'm going to blow something up but they're never going to do it and people saying i am headed to. Dc you gotta make the difference. They don't have the tools to do it like international terrorism. The whole idea of prevention needs to be examined by the new congress. What do i mean by that. We still don't have a domestic terrorism law. We still don't treat this like we do. International terrorism change the religion of some of those people that entered the capital. And you've got violent. John lewis you've got the fbi with undercover informants electronic surveillance and agents in their groups and organizations because we've designated them as potentially violent. We've got nothing like that going on. So we need to think about how we prevent this moving forward because the threat is not going away simply because donald trump leaves office memo to joe biden the first bill he should push congress to pass in the first bill he should sign would be the defining domestic terrorism and aggressively going after domestic terrorism in this post age of trump of frank finally. Do you have confidence. Your new book is the fbi way. Do you have confidence that people inside. The fbi are of one accord that they're moving in one direction. They're not split like they were in the two thousand sixteen election with a lot of people hating hillary clinton a lot of people hating donald trump. And you having competition between the new york office and the dc office and all. The other offices is the f. b. i. Way in two thousand twenty one hunting down these seditionists dragging them to jail and making sure justice is served against each and every one of them. The is on the job like it's never been before since nine eleven. Now here's the deal. I wrote the book. Because i know the fbi operates at the highest level of excellence when the stakes matter. The most. i know how they do it. I've distilled it down for your viewers in seven simple sees. I call the. But here's here's the more disturbing part of answering your question. I have to tell you. The pervasive the penetration of law enforcement by the trump ideology. We've had a president who who each campaign has held huge cops for trump rallies around the country. They are there well attended. There are cops wearing cunanan badges on their uniforms. Can i guarantee you that that hasn't penetrated federal agencies. I cannot guarantee that there has been a radicalization process occurring in this country and law enforcement is not immune to radicalization. And i. I fear that as we move forward we're going to hear more and more stories and more and more investigations of current and former law enforcement and military that have kept their eyes off of democracy and put them onto a single individual. It was a perfect storm. The bill then protest calls for defunding of the police feeling like they're isolated and they're about to get even axed in some cities and now you have an isolated angry population. I can't believe we're talking about counter. Snipers for the inauguration that have to keep their eyes on cups as well as on protesters good god. Are we hear it. We are the new book is the fbi way inside the bureau's code of excellence former assistant director of the fbi counterintelligence division. Frank the glues. -i thank you very much and co founder of punchbowl news. Jake sherman thank you. What's Punch bowls lead today. What what our readers of punchbowl. Getting today in their inbox will the the that twenty people are going to vote against our vote for peach mint and We talked about mccarthy and the problems that he faces and the deep divide in the house. Republican conference joe between people like lose. Cheney who are speaking against the president and kevin mccarthy who was who is tone. The line at the moment is an amazing Split amazing divide on on the conference. Call yesterday on the house. Republican conference call between low lauren. Beaubourg acuna on a believer in nancy mesa south carolina whose proving herself to be a mainstream republican and mace was decrying. The fact that the party is being led by cunanan at the moment which is something that you could probably sympathize with a little bit but this divide. joe is as bad as it's ever been not curse the darkness. We had a light a candle. I'm chuck rosenberg on my podcast. The oath i talk with people who served with integrity and honor men and women who liked the way this week. Former head of the guantanamo review task force matt olsen. The initial idea of guantanamo was. Ill conceived that there could be sort of a legal black hole where we could all detainees and it remains a problem in our history. I think from counterterrorism perspective. Join me for season for the oath and msnbc podcasts. Search for the oath wherever you're listening right now and subscribe new episodes every wednesday. Still ahead on morning joe. With president trump facing a second possible impeachment trial we'll be joined by two democratic lawmakers who also served as impeachment managers during his first trial congressman hakeem jeffries and adam schiff will both be our guests this morning. You're watching morning joe. We'll be right back. A season of chaos the crimson tide other conference concent- excellence. Bama bludgeons the buckeyes and saving steps past paul bryant with his seventh national championship. Chris fowler on the call last night for. Espn is alabama won. Its sixth national title in twelve years blowing out a good ohio state team fifty two to twenty four the heisman trophy winner. Devante smith had three touchdowns two hundred fifteen yards receiving first half. They didn't even need them to do anything in the second half. He was incredible. Mack jones. The quarterback najji harris running back ran in for a couple of touchdowns. The game really was never close. Joe nick sabin. Who doesn't get too excited after game said he thinks this is the ultimate team. Mack jones of quarterback said. I think we're the best team to play. You can make a case for that offense certainly again. You're tied rolls onto another title. I agree looking at this team last night. It certainly the best offense i've ever seen at the university of alabama the best offense coordinator. I've ever seen well. He started lane. Kiffin we we never. We never put lane kiffin second. Anybody best quarterback alabama this century easily. He's he he just cut. He is cut out the new england patriots under bella check fest wide receiver not only in alabama but in college football ever most likely my favorite running back at alabama in najji. Harrison's johnny musso in the early seventies and you gotta say willie The greatest football coach Certainly of our time and Would be hard pressed to not say of all time what they've accomplished over the last ten eleven twelve years. Why does it. He's won seven national championships. And he's seven any bear bryant the great bear bryant of course for the most ever by a major college football coach so even objectively. He's the best college coach of all time. Alabama is the national champ. Yeah yeah and they'll say willie to. I'd love to get your input on this. Is you know as we get older. We understand that these are kids that are throwing the ball around and what we were always told them. We played football in high school and kids played football in college. It was about character building. And tell you what. This has been a tough season for all of these teams. They've they've stayed in a bubble they've stayed away from their families And you look at smith. The heisman trophy winner showed such great humility so many kids at that ceremony. The heisman ceremony showed such great humility. I saw there again last night. This has been a lot of those alabama kids could have been multimillionaires. A lot of them decided to stay for this one final year to win the national championship and shows real character speaking of that willies. You know the nation's highest civilian honor has been turned down by new england patriots coach. Bill belichick the six time super bowl. Winning head coach agreed to accept the medal of freedom when he was offered that award by our that honored by president trump but his now declined it and in a statement. He said this. Recently i was offered the opportunity to receive the presidential medal of freedom which i was flattered by out of respect for what the honor represents admiration for prior recipients. Subsequently the tragic events of last week occurred in the decision has been made not to move forward with award above all. I am an american citizen with great reverence for our nation's values freedom and democracy. I know i also represent my family and the new england patriots team. One of the most rewarding things in my professional career took place in two thousand and two win through the great leadership within our team. Conversations about social justice equality and human rights moved to the forefront and became actions continuing those efforts while remaining true to the people team and country. I love outweigh the benefits of any individual award. A white house official doesn't nbc news. The white house has been made aware abella checks decision. The certainly for anybody especially football code. This is an honor that a that a lot wouldn't pass up. But i guess it shows to sell remarkable willie. The events of the last week have been yet when we saw this on the schedule this week. A lot of people wondered my gosh. After what happened. On wednesday is bill belichick really going to step forward and accept a medal from president trump. He came out yesterday and put out that statement. It may seem like a small thing to some people k. A football coach declines a metal. But when bill belichick does this win. Arnold schwarzenegger makes that speech the other day. They're speaking to audiences who have great respect for them and who listened to them and who may tune into them in a way. They don't listen to a politician or a member of the media. It matters what leaders like this do and say and it was good to see bill belichick. Step up and do the right thing. You know william so glad. You brought up arnold schwarzenegger because schwarzenegger ballot check. You're exactly right Those are the people that are going to at least be able to slightly penetrate a group that have been part of this cult. It's not going to be the chuck. Schumer are titian. It's not going to be talking heads on cable news shows. It will be people like arnold schwarzenegger that a lot of americans have grown up with an wait. Take south at conan's sword. Yeah sure a lot of people might think that's a little over the top the audience said it's intended for doesn't think it's over the top and he makes a great point with it and bella check and swertz and your you're right. Those are two voices that could break through and actually move some minds and if they stop one or two people from doing what they're talking about doing next week not just in washington but it state capitals across the country it will have been worth the stands that they've taken in the last couple of days for sure up next of donald trump. We're back in a moment. I want to be clear to those lead this department who you will serve. You won't work for me. You are not the president or the vice president's lawyer your loyalty is not to me is to the law. The constitution the people of this nation to guarantee justice resin elect joe biden. Speaking when he nominated merrick garland for attorney general. But what will happen if the justice department decide to pursue prosecution prosecution against trump joining us now longtime media executive cnbc founder and contributor and editor at large newsweek. Tom rogers he's out with a new piece for the magazine. At ten point guides at the prosecution of donald trump also with us professor in law at john university and a former trial attorney with the united states department of justice paul butler he is an msnbc legal analysts. So paul begin with you with the thirty thousand foot question. We've heard at the end of the past couple of presidencies People on the other side talking about wanting to prosecute You had Some democrats urging the prosecution of george w bush for war crimes in iraq war. There were of course Republicans urging the same for barack obama. And now we get to the end of the trump presidency and of course my god. There is a laundry list of things that donald trump could be prosecuted for both the federal level and the state level. But my concern is always been we go down this road with then we are criminalizing politics and people start understanding that. If i lose this election i could end up in jail i understand. Donald trump is an exception to all exceptions. But do we not have to keep that in mind. Do we not have to be cognizant of that back that if we do jail president even if it's even if he deserves to be in jail that we began down a dangerous road. Hey guys willie geist here reminding you. To check out the sunday. Sit down podcast. On this week's episode. I get together with emmy award winner. Rachel brosnahan to talk about the return of her. Hit series. the marvelous. Mrs maisel taking on her first starring role in a major movie and what life has been like during quarantine including a lot of survivor. Reruns you can listen to our full conversation right now on the sunday. Sit down podcast. Get it for free or have you download yours. We certainly have to have that concern. Joe and mirror garland if confirmed most difficult decision both be to prosecute donald trump and other numbers of his administration on the one hand. We don't want to look like this is the evelyn of lock him up. Lock her up of the other hand. People should be held accountable. And no person is above the law including the president as you indicated. Donald trump's alleged criminality is of a different order. It's on a different scale than even allegations that were made against. Bbs presidents and tom rogers we of course saw donald trump trying to get joe biden arrested and joe biden son Family members arrested. We have the possibility of the biden administration looking at criminal. Referrals for jared kushner and criminal referrals for don jr. from the republican senate intel committee. That is strong but at the same time. You remember as well as i do. Gerald ford deciding to end the long national nightmare pardoning richard nixon. He knew it would likely cost him the presidency. It did but of course. The kennedy center gave him a profile in courage award for having the courage to make that tough decision. This would be an even tougher. Decision is joe biden the better position if he moves forward remembers abraham lincoln's words with malice toward nine. Well joe i think we have to look beyond the issue of just the prosecution of donald trump and think about the malignancy that trump has caused our raw politics It there were a lot of devastating things that happened last week. But there was nothing in my mind more devastating in terms of a statement about our politics that after the riots after all the legislators had the flay a majority of republican elected. Legislators came back to vote in support of the big lie. And what that really says. Is they believe their constituents still believe in trump. And as you've said many times this is a cult of personality and given the fact that it's a cult of personality. I think we have to go after him as a person. Not as the head of a political movement i think biden justice department prosecute him at in presidential acts it's invariably abuse looking at zip fit political revenge and instead we need to elevate the prosecution of him as a person with state and local prosecutors taking the lead on what looked like a huge number of tax evasion money laundering illegal corporate payments bank fraud. There's a lot there and if he can be seen to be nothing more than a convicted felon white collar criminal a complete fraud on that basis. I think we have some way of detaching much more of that republican constituency which still seems to believe in this guy and not enough of them as will be seen from impeachment vote even now against him had had separate his constituencies belief in him as a person. So i think the elevation of those prosecutions not the justice department by on state prosecutors become to barrett so tom i'm looking at your ten point guide and one of them is to remove donald trump from the political playing field. What does that mean. Exactly how do you go about doing it. I think that one of the things that we know about trump is. He says things out loud. He shouldn't necessarily say but are extremely revealing back in the spring. When i was talking about how they were gonna take this whole electoral college overturned vote congress. He was actually saying. This is all going to end up in congress. Well one thing he also said a number of months ago was imagine. If i lose. I might have to leave the country. I actually think if he is indicted here for the kind of criminal acts that i'm talking about and obviously they need to be pursued with complete new assets and fairness. But if he is. I think there is a chance. He would flee the country to a country that we have no extradition treaty with with a friendly president. Maybe like brazil. And i think this whole notion of going after him as a person as the head of a personality coal in really do an awful lot not only changed this perception of people still believing in him and therefore him being able to pose litmus s on how congressman act when it comes to all kinds of our and political issues and turn him into some level of a political relevant which i think is absolutely doerr mullet hard and fast at going after him on these other criminal activities. So claire mccaskill. You can jump in with Next question but i just wonder also about trump's family members and these lawyers whatever you wanna call them that are around him i mean. Shouldn't there be a plan to hold them accountable as well. So that further criminal actions and incitements of riots or whatever can be stopped in their tracks will there's certainly enough evidence for disarmament of the clown car of lawyers that hung on until the end clinging to the big lie rudy lynnwood sydney whatever. Her name is They're certainly a basis for that. And by the way. I should point out. Technically in removing him from the political plainfield lotta people have said if he's impeached. He can't run again. That's a separate vote. The senate has to take they. I had would have to convict him and remove him from office. Then there's a second vote which by the way is only a simple majority that would take to bar him from seeking for future office. Let me ask call this. Would it make more sense. Go terms of trump wanting to be a martyr. Would it make more sense to focus on his crimes. That were financial That have to do with him. Both drifting off the presidency and the fraud that we're all pretty certain he committed as part of his business dealings prior to taking the presidency does that isolate his behavior as a crook but not make him a political martyr in terms of the public at large it might have that impact clear but donald trump's most egregious acts are precisely the ones that he's committed in office as president so i think he should be investigated and prosecuted for inciting insurrection at the capitol and trying to get the georgia officials to steal election for him in for obstructing justice in the countless investigations of his administration the advantage of a state prosecution that trump couldn't part in self that wouldn't be true even if he's prosecuted by saying the southern district of new york but at this point a prosecution for bank or insurance fraud would not sufficiently capture trump's criminal exposure or his just desserts. Paul butler thank you tom. Rogers thank you as well. The new pieces online for newsweek and still ahead former. Dhs secretary michael chertoff on the security failure at the capital last week. And why he says to quote buckle up over the next few weeks and months morning. Joe is coming right back. Hi it's msnbc's haze brown these days. There's just so much news to wrap your head around. It's challenging to get a deeper understanding of things so every morning go beyond the headlines with msnbc daily it features britain perspectives from people. You know and trust including tremaine. Lee mehdi hassan lists plank and frank biglou cheap. They'll take you inside the most important issues of our times issues like systemic racism domestic terrorism. And how we can bridge our political divide. Plus you'll get a fresh take every morning from me start your day with msnbc. Daily at msnbc dot com.

united states of america donald trump fbi mccarthy frank senate joe biden kevin mccarthy punchbowl news Jake sherman joe congress claire mccaskill Joe joe willie Lawyer scott white house mitch mcconnell cunanan neo nazi center
Biggest IPO of the year plus Disneys streaming magic

CNBC's Fast Money

48:57 min | Last month

Biggest IPO of the year plus Disneys streaming magic

"Some bonds last a lifetime some bonds inspire confidence. And some you grow to rely on. These are the bonds worth investing in for nearly fifty years. Pimco has reinvented fixed. Income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. So no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. Pimco a global leader in active fixed income learn more at pimco dot com slash bonds all investments contain risk and may lose value console your investment professional before investing up. Right there melissa lee. This is fast tonight. Straighter line karen barnum and dominik. Dan nathan tim seymour. Let's get straight to it. We are getting headlines out of the disney investor day the company's streaming service front and center at this year's meeting some staggering numbers unveiled so far. Let's get straight to. Julie abortions got all the details julia most of the best streaming service at front and center and the message from disney. Ceo bob peck as well as from cream daniel who's in charge of the distribution of olive disease content is that the streaming direct to consumer model is working the company announcing eighty six point eight million subscribers to disney plus. Now that is up from seventy three point. Seven million announced at the end of the last quarter so meaningful growth as they've rolled out to latin america. They're also talking about a new distribution deal with comcast saying that these distribution deals having easy access through the likes of apple has been really crucial for their growth in this partnership with comcast on his ex-wife platform will also be instrumental and a lot of talk right now about the amount of exclusive content. That's going to be on disney. Plus they over the next few years. Roughly ten marvel series series. Fifteen disney live action series as well as films from disney animation and pixar and then melissa as the question of what happens to the movie theaters they say the key thing about this reorganize they're able to be nimble and decide. Which films should go where on a case by case basis so not making any big commitments but they say there will be some films that go into theaters for window before they're available on disney plus other films they said we'll be available day and date that means available for streaming the same time. They're in theaters. That might be controversial with the theater chains. We'll have to see. And then they say other films that were intended for theatres they'll send it straight to disney plus because that's the best thing for them to do right now in terms of the pandemic so really setting forth a nimble strategy of distribution but disney plus is really at the center of it and in terms of the overall numbers. they're showing growth across these different platforms. Espn plus has eleven. And a half million subs. Who thirty eight. Point eight million subs melissa. It's a four hour presentation as i understand. Julius i'm sure they're gonna be a lot more headlines you're going to keep us posted on but in terms of the eighty six point. Eight million number sub sub number. How many of those jobs are not paying in other words. How many are getting it for free. So disney has always reported paying subscribers. Remember ever deal. Verizon but verizon is paying disney so this is not a situation where they have tons of free subscribers who doing trial periods. They really are able to get people to pay. And i think the key thing here is not melissa just about the fact that they have these partnerships but they also been putting exclusive content on the platform spooky which they have an animated movie. That's coming out in march. They say they're going to be putting it on disney plus the same time. It's in theaters. Course that could be controversial but it seems like this is the way the world and those traditional windows between the obstacle and ad hoc distribution have really been shattered. Is this the venue. Julia where executive departures could be announced. There have been some rumblings that bob eiger would depart. He has made comments that he would be willing to serve in a biden administration. So even though bob shape because obviously at the helm people are wondering about eiger. You know i've heard a lot of speculation. A lot of rumors that bob eiger is being considered for various roles in the biden administration. One senior executive told me they'd love to see him be ambassador to china. As far as i can tell. That's not going to be coming today. I believe that disney really wants this to be about the content and about the vision for disney plus direct to consumer focus of the company is something that eiger has really put forth but we will be hearing from later in the day. He is gonna be unveiling the contents late so right now. They're talking about the business. Cfo christine mccarthy is laying out some new financial forecast for the company. And then later on there's gonna be a break and then we'll be showcasing some of the content that will be the centerpiece of disney plus. So who knows there could always be a surprise. But from what i'm hearing he's really gonna be focusing on the content today. All right julia. Thank you keep us wrong be wrong. We'll stay tuned juliette. Thank you julia. Borsen the stock is up three percent of the after recession. The stock is up by the way about thirty. Two percent since this investor day was announced in august guy dummy. Where do you see on disney shares. Right now in shoot it now. Now that is putting forth this huge slate of original content. Get some of that valuation. That netflix has. Although tim seymour's are emerging markets expert. He's become art disney expert as well and he was early usually earliest wrong. But in this case it was right saying that you know disney is morphing itself under streaming company. Now all of a sudden you have analysts talking about exactly that i think wells fargo raised their price target a couple of days. Go to one eighty five citing streaming have more analysts. Probably now giving you probably have if you include who. Espn probably north of one. Hundred thirty five million or so. Subsets tremendous numbers. And i guess you're getting the rest of the company at somewhat of a discount. that's the play here valuation. I think is a concern because at thirty two times next year's numbers it's clearly expensive to what it was in its history. But you know what it's not disney of your my father's or your father's disney. It's morphed into something else so maybe that one eighty five price target is right. Melissa wells park that was actually an upgrade also so not just the price target increase credit suisse also increase their their price. Get certain morgan stanley Just in recent days. So tim i hear this huge slate of content. And i think lots of spending. Do you like that. As a shareholder look at. Netflix is still cash on negative. And so it's been great for netflix. Shareholders and guys talking about this hybrid multiple that i think. How can you not take one hundred. Thirty seven million customers across their entire spectrum as of december two which is what i just read And not say wow this is. This is real. This is major critical mass and at some point they're also gonna have pricing power. This and the rumor is. They're going to start raising prices next year but more importantly back to the multiple times multiple on the stock On on just their. Dt business seven times sales and remember if you look at net flicks it trades at about eleven times trailing twenty nine thousand nine sales So you know. And then you put the legacy business at fifteen sixteen seventeen multiple. You've got one hundred and eighty dollars stock and that's something that i think the street is getting around to. I think these upgrades are buried in this hybrid multiple which is going to be a sum of the parts of the business and the legacy business. And why shouldn't disney continue to rewrite and unfortunately for yes. They're not earning money right now and they're going to spend a lot on cash. Excuse me on of their cash on content. But that's to be rewarded if you look at the other players in the industry like netflix. You agree karen. I mean this is a stock that just hit its all-time high in yesterday's session. With a major part of its business effectively shutdown right so they do get a pass on You know parks and hotels and they'll get a pass. It doesn't matter how bad those quarters coming up are. But i guess you know to me. It's expensive. they've done a tremendous job in the last year. The growth is fantastic. I just you know at some point. I always think companies need to make money net flicks. I guess teaches us a different lesson. I've also been concerned about the debt. They had from the fox acquisition. But i guess. Zero eight environment doesn't matter how much debt you have So i understand why it's trading up. I think that. I i can't see getting on board here but i would not be surprised if it goes higher. I'm interested. I don't know how much they'll focus on some of the what we call legacy businesses now I'm interested if they're going to spend much time on that or the whole story now is just going to be all streaming. And that's the disney story. Well it seems like that's the multiple or evaluation expansion part of the story which is very important to shareholders Dan when i heard ten new star wars series for disney plus. I immediately thought of you. And how you'll be glued to discuss. So i have two words for mel boba fett okay. The mandalorian with john fabra brought this thing out last year. They launched disney plus this. It's absolutely killing. At the fact that they have eighty seven million viewers on a two billion dollar spend in this first year versus net flicks. That's going to do fifteen sixteen seventeen. Maybe even higher on their original content. You say to yourself okay. Netflix has two hundred million paid subscribers. Globally and disney hasn't even rolled it out think of the marvel universe. You think of pixar you think of this new world order that we're in whether these directors in these creators don't like the fact that movies are going to have these dual releases its happening and i can't think of a better catalog than disney's to kind of roll this out for this new way that we're going to be viewing content. That was once made for the big screen. So when you think about that. I buy the argument. Tim says seven times sales for this part of disney's business which is only going to be growing very fast. I do have a problem with where it is. When you think about these other legacy businesses you think the challenges that they have in their networks business with espn that sort of thing. I mean these are all still there. So the way i see it. Is you know the stocks at all time highs here could pull back to that. One forty breakout level over the next month or two and then you start reloading but this is going to be a different company going forward. Tim and karen and guy who'd been all over this for months and months and months and i think you look to buy on pullbacks. Here's a question for you. Multiple choice so follow along very carefully. Because they're if you wanna get a pen and paper. You're welcome to do so right now. It's a good time. You're literally doing that. Disney comcast or netflix. Right here disney kyw down. Because i don't need my smart board. I don't know. I don't need my smart board for that. I still need it netflix. Netflix is still there was used to be a softball team. That played in my area. Westchester called the king and his court. It was one dude like to other people and they would smoke everybody. They played Netflix is the king and his or her court. And everybody else so the gesture. So and my world it would be netflix mill. I think tim that. All the moves the disney plus turning up the heat turning the screws on some of its competitors like an hbo max which is charging a lot more than disney plus subscription costs and yet. Hbo max is certainly helped that. At and t. stock over the last couple of days. But you know they certainly created major headwinds talking about how movies will be running through. Hbo max and again the attack on the theaters. This is the one of the big questions for disney. To how are they going to handle the feature films and through this new reorder structure. You know ultimately i think if anyone is in a position to do this and do this and stay ahead of everyone is the one i is is the group of the best studio out. There mean disney studio We forget that some of the blockbusters that have been turned out in the last ten years. That have been billion dollar franchises. And they keep rolling them out so I think that disney is certainly got competition. And i do think. Hbo max and undervalued asset But i'd rather own disney over. At and t. from disney's investor day. Let's bring in fast money. Friend and media mogul tom. Rogers former. nbc cable president and tvos ceo. He is now the executive chairman of engine media and a cnbc contributor. Always a pleasure to speak with you. Thanks for having me. Melissa in the notes that you think the market is underestimating. The risks to this story. Why eighty six point eight million subs. That's a huge number for business that had zero a year ago. It does and they've done a wonderful job with subs- but the sub number there it doesn't reveal everything I remember once being on the show discussing net and talking about their prospects in asia. And we said oh. Yeah but they're going to have a lot of mobile subs well. Thirty percent of the subs in that eighty six point eight number are a dollar or less coming out of india. So you gotta put that against what their total revenue is and it brings it down quite considerably You gotta look what they're doing in the us that's a big global number but they're doing about thirty five million in the us a year peacocks and added a few months. And it's at about twenty six million so you gotta you gotta dissect these number. Disney does a wonderful job with presentations. And a wonderful dopp showing. How their brand plus distribution is going to end up with some enormously valued asset and so far. The market's been buying but the issue they got a focus on now and the reason. This event is all about rolling out. Programming is their engagement with yours is actually pretty low. The studies have shown that netflix amazon. Even youtube have huge viewer engagement prepared to disney which is only about five percent of screaming so to really get up their pricing who really have a bright price value proposition. That is gonna put them in the league's of a netflix. They have to get much more engagement with do that. They need much more original programming for much more original programming. They're going to have to spend a lot more than they originally sent. And that is going to have to be across hulu above star and of course disney plus so how they how much they are willing to spend is a big issue here and that they haven't revealed so far in this event is they program town. It's karen thanks for coming on today. Let me ask you when you talk about this. Enormous growth and value. What how do we think about valuing this how do you value it. Well you know when you think you can't now you disney without thinking about all the headwinds involved with disney disney has more opportunity than any legacy media company. But it's got much more headwind than any legacy media company because it such a big part of the bundle basically when you gotta think that as we go from one hundred million years ago in satellite cable subs down to something. That's in the high mid seventy s. Today were you're talking about seventeen dollars of value coming out of that bundle which they're trading for subs in somewhere in the six they're bundled thirteen dollar ring. That's a big trader and that those though streaming subs are lower margin some silver losing much more her subscriber as they dwindle in the cable satellite world relative to the revenue per sub. They're picking up in the streaming world and they have all the marketing costs of direct to consumer in the streaming world which is wholesale seller satellite and cable. They don't have so you can't look at disney as wow it's gonna make this transition to screaming and there's no real cost to. They're doing so ahead. Windsor huge and that i don't think the market is focused on as much because the brunt of those net winds although they'd been feeling him haven't hit full yet tom just quickly. I let you go. But i gotta ask you this multiple choice question which i post a guy as well. You're also break out a pen and paper. If i don't think you need to go disney comcast or netflix's i gotta agree with the great guy guy said netflix. Netflix is in the category by itself. Terms of global sobs in terms of price value perception. in terms of the rate that it's able to chart internationally he would run circles around his plus comcast necks because it has a broadband pipe coupled with content. Play is the. I put last all right. Tom great to speak with you. Thank you so much. Tom rogers We should note that comcast is the parent company of cnbc Dan nathan what do you think. How do you think about the streaming landscape a year from now a lot of change in just one year. Yeah i think. Tom brought up some good points about the headwinds for disney. I'll just tell you this. I cut the cord last year. And i'm using who. And that's how i access my live tv right now and they all have a bundle with espn plots with disney plus. I think there's going to be tremendous opportunities as that cord cutting continues to increase. But i also think it's worth noting that guy and the great tom. Rogers pick of netflix's netflix's hasn't gone anywhere in four months of anything. It's actually been rejected above five fifty each of the last three times. It's been there since september. So to me i think before the pandemic we were already pricing in what negative growth in north america looked like for netflix. They might have pulled for a lot of big demands. So we're going to see what that looks like in two thousand and twenty one especially as all of this competition ramps up Peacocking warner hbo and disney plus. I think there's a lot coming. So i'm not so certain that netflix's the play here all right. Disney shares are up three and a quarter percent right now. The investor day presentation continues will bring you any news as breaks coming up another big story. We're following tonight airbnb going bonkers in its market debut. Should your book this name in your portfolio will debate that ahead. But first we've done earnings alert for you. On lululemon and oracle shares on the move after reporting results will bring you all the action when fast money return some bonds last a lifetime. Some bonds inspire confidence. And some you grow to rely on. These are the bonds worth investing in for nearly fifty years. Pimco has reinvented fixed. Income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. So no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. Pimco a global leader in active fixed income learn more at pimco dot com slash bonds own investments contain risk and may lose value. Console your investment professional before investing. Welcome back to pass money. We've got an earnings alert on lululemon and both stocks on the move in the after session. Eric champion sandy. By the latest on oracle. But we kick things off with. Sarah is in. Who has the latest on lulu sarah. Hi melissa good to see you. So this is a much better than expected. Report from lulu. In fact earnings beat estimates on wall street strong sales continues to be the name of the game up twenty two percent overall if you break that down further. I'll give you some other numbers which really speaks to the strength right now. That lulu is seeing com store sales which includes online and stores open at least a year up nineteen percent women sales up twenty two percent. Men's only up fourteen percents calvin mcdonald just talking about that on the call. Thanks she was quicker to go out shopping after the lockdowns than he was. But that men's is still a key priority and growth driver for the company another number that beat expectations online sales up. Ninety three percent company also gave an update on mirror. Remember that was lulus. I ever acquisition back in june. The at home fitness company bought for half a billion dollars it is selling it in stores as it launched in eighteen different stores and online mirror cost fifteen hundred dollars and lulu says. It's going to add about one hundred million dollars in sales this year. Macdonald also saying it's having a strong holiday quarter. They also said that. They gain share in north america and just often analyst questions about the question about tam total addressable market calvin mcdonald saying that. He believes that they are in the early stages of reaching the total addressable market pointing to the strength. They're seeing in men's and women's as far from seeing its potential siting new guest coming into the stores and online this quarter and new innovations like the cloud bra which are doing well. The stock is down after hours initially popped on the news on the better results. Few could potential reasons number one. Melissa they did not give guidance which may come as a disappointment to citing the uncertainty around kobe. Nineteen they've been impacted of course by capacity restraints in stores and closer closures around the world and it's also very high multiple already trading around sixty times earnings. So that's always going to be the debate on the stock. Yup sarah thank you. Sarah is with the lowdown on lululemon. Karen where do you stand on lulu. Those numbers are just staggering. Dtcc business up up ninety. Here's the thing that's so amazing so. Dt is now forty three percent of their business and and they were able to increase their gross margin percent will be so everyone else including lulu as they switched to a more online business actually saw margin compression so they're seeing margin expansion. Now that's amazing. I a little skeptical of mirror. If i if it's one hundred million revenue. If it were freely traded today it would trade it a lot. More than five times revenue. So i think Also they're having they have bigger sizes and maybe their total addressable market of women that would wear of lou is increasing and they increase thereby back to five hundred million. My only problem with lulu. And i don't own anymore. Which makes me sad but my only problem is. It's so expensive when it got to about. I don't know fifty times earnings. I felt like all right. I had to sell it as great as it is. It doesn't mean you'll pay any price for it so it's not surprising that it was down just the weight of its own expectations. Were too high no matter what they put out. This was fantastic. Quarter gross margins were impressed. Fifty six percent gross margin for a retailer Tim seymour where do you stand on this. Well i i liked the story. But i think it's too expensive i i again. Let's highlight forty-three percent of their overall. Business from twenty seven percent a year earlier and and if you look at those quarterly sequential sales though their extraordinary. I just have to say i. Does it get any better for for than this and this is. I think there's a real come up. It's for some of these specialty retailers when we get well through covert where these multiples Don't have the same kind of tailwinds and again there are big winner and the men's dynamic guy can talk about those abc pants. I know he's a big advocate But i think this is too expensive. Such a great company though It's the underwear he said yesterday. I'm quoting guy from yesterday But i think that's the question for a lot of these work from home. Pandemic success stocks guy and that's a degree of portfolio. That's a degree of you. Know how is it going to be this good later on. Our people are gonna wanna buy all those yoga pants if they actually have to go someplace short. Answer the short answers. I think they can continue on. I mean maybe the trajectory slows but fifty six times next year's numbers expensive. And you know the one thing. So i'll see your gross margins which were outstanding but operating margin quarter last year was nineteen point three percent and this year they came in. I think at eighteen point three better than the street was expecting by the way but operating margins little lower. Maybe people were disappointed by that. If you're looking for the level to buy the stock it comes in the form of the october high where we traded up to and failed three fifty six. I think it probably gets there and by the way could owes to. Sarah is. who's doing yeoman's work. I mean putting in the extra to just surround the lululemon lemon earnings. Well done sara. Lee always appreciate it when they're grace's us with her presence and gives us her expertise Let's now or the stock is off. It's after hours. Lows accompanies call is underway. Let's go to eric. Who's following the call eric. He melissa the threat. Oracle shares dropping as much as two percent after the bell on the earnings report but recovering a bit after guidance. On the call that's better than analysts. Had expected turning back to the last quarter. Revenue grew just two percent from last year. The company beefed up its cloud services during the quarter as people continue to work remotely that helped strengthen its positioning. it's microsoft amazon's cloud offerings. The company's largest business segment is cloud services and licensed support which was four percent from last year and slightly beat analysts estimates but spot smaller parts of the company declined like cloud license and on prem licensed segment that dropped three percent that it's hard revenue dropping as well services revenue also dropping in the quarter remember. The federal government agreed to a deal moving tiktok. Us user data onto oracle's cloud infrastructure. But that deal not final yet. The company also announced the availability of a cloud service that companies can use to monitor the health of different parts of applications running and clouds and on premise centers. Melissa back to you eric. thanks eric. Cheney dan nathan your take on oracle it's just not particularly exciting when you see that revenue license revenue disappointing and you see low single digits revenue growth high single digits earnings growth. You see a stock. That's up you know less than the s p five hundred on the year much less than as dak you start seeing yourself. Why were they thinking about spending ten billion dollars. They have a mountain of cash over forty billion dollars in their balance. You to get involved that tiktok deal. I look around. And i say they should be looking at in the private markets. A lot of exciting stuff. You think of that. That cloud services business issued by a company like eight nine billion dollar Cloud security based company five hundred dollars. Revenues growing fifty percent of your ninety percent gross margins they need to actually layer on some other services to cross sell exciting new businesses. That's where i'd be. Focus our them all right coming up. Snap and twitter. Teaming up is a social gathering. A win win will bring all the details plus airbnb going bonkers in its market debut. Should your book this name your portfolio. We've got that and much more. When fast bunny returns support for this podcast comes from neutrogena. Hydro boost does your day last all day. Keep your skin. Dewey soft and smooth with neutrogena hydro boost the new hyler onic acid quenches skin with two sizes of hyler onic. Acid dermatologist. recommended glycerin vitamin b. Five and kiwi extract just apply in the morning for weightless fragrance-free hydration that reaches nine layers of skin and then seals it in for twenty four hours or pair it with neutrogena hydro boost water gel for four times the hydrating power de-stress rehydrate with premium. Skin care at home and on your schedule. Neutrogena hydro boost tyler onic. Acid serum stay dewey soft and drenched in hydration learn more at neutrogena dot com. Welcome back to take a look at airbnb soaring and its market debut. The stock surging one hundred and thirteen percent. But check this out. One of these things is not like the other awards sesame street. Just take a look at the travel sox. Airbnb is market. Cap now. Stands at eighty six and a half billion dollars that is bigger than booking holdings marriott hilton and expedia and it goes beyond travel with. Today's gains. Airbnb is now bigger than target and goldman sachs. We could talk about money being left on the table. We talk about the huge. I stay pop but the question that we need to answer tonight is simply. Does that make sense. That i mean what you say. They're into four billion dollars in revenue. They're expecting double digit revenue growth. At least the analysts are start doing the math. I mean it's going to take in my opinion five years to deserve this valuation. And maybe that's the way the world is right now. Maybe people don't care maybe this sort of the grey fool theory thing but when you sort of look at this and look at jordache yesterday and save yourself. What am i missing i. It doesn't make any sense to me. It takes a long time to grow in these evaluations. And oh by the way we didn't even talk about but the employment Situation this country is not getting better. As a matter of fact that seems to be getting worse and although we can talk about know the summer of next year things getting back to normal a long time from here to there so in my world. It's ridiculously expensive melissa. Karen what do you make of. It will one thing that i found really interesting. That didn't notice until this afternoon. When i looked at the s one they actually the company themselves or the entity of the company was not actually selling stock. It was all it looked at employee. Ease and you know about hundreds of names of people selling so. I don't know that the company really left any money off the on the table And even if they did they were selling thirty one million shares out of you know ever two hundred sixty but whatever the number is it something much much greater all that. Haven't been though it's crazy. I don't get it at all. it's crazy. I mean it reminds me of two thousand reminds me of you know ridiculous first day you know up things up a thousand percent that ended up going zero. Not but i think this is. There's real value here for sure. There's real value endure dash this much real value. I don't really get it. And that total addressable market. It somewhat reminds me of you know in two thousand they would price things by eyeballs. I mean these other travel companies. They still have a gigantic addressable market as well. And they're not trading anything close. So i don't get it. Maybe the thought though is that airbnb will displace the business of a hyatt marriott and and the other companies which it now eclipses evaluation. Dan can you. Can you get your arms around that sort of explanation. Well it's funny. You know a few years ago when we saw gig economy companies really take off and we were really worried about the displacement of a lot of businesses a lot of workers because of this disruption. And when you think about it. The hospitality industry has at least a hotel in. She has two and a half million workers that are a lot of them. Furloughed right now probably are out of jobs so if airbnb comes back and they've really attacked that addressable market which a lot of people think they do there's going to be tremendous disruption in our workforce here so you know. Listen it's a great company. You know we were all renting houses on vr be. Oh ten years ago before airbnb existed. It's not like they invented the space or anything like that so to me at eight billion dollars. It doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense but this is not on the bankers and it's not on the company's it's investors who want to buy it here point there. Let's talk more about the airbnb with one of its original. Investors rick heights. Men is founder and partner at first capital. Rick good to see you to see you again. Run into everybody's great. You still own chairs at this point. Have you sold any so zero scope. Dustin louis in happy so i guess i guess that answers short answers this question but slightly different because you got in and a much lower cost basis. If you're to put money to work at this moment in time would you buy airbnb stock at one hundred forty four dollars a share. Would i think differently than some of the stocks. You've seen pop recently erie as really set up for either. The kind of deposed vaccination world post kobe where people traveling maybe not a great business and you know you think about consumer brands going forward now become verb for both hosts and guests so the ability to build that market place and be part of a kind of permanent part of the twenty first century economies aware he records tim facts rejoined the next. Would you say airbnb was helped or hurt by covid. You look at how they were pitching this deal They were certainly making. It seem as if this was a very friendly way to travel and the great irony here is that they seem to have benefited from it. Really is a great irony san. If you would've told us in february that airbnb wasn't going to be a public company equal shot and if you would have told us in june that airbnb was going to be of accompanying twenty twenty. We would have been chopped so originally especially coming out of the early signs of china. I the company tremendously negatively impact dubai. Kobe You know. obviously but nice wanted a couple of months of negative revenue. More cancellations and bookings. But i think as all of us adapted the company apted and now quarter of its bookings for twenty eight days or more so in this work from home work from everywhere culture. Air be amazed and it's become a warrant from an airbnb and they've captured that part of the market. In addition at least when i started traveling for business again. I'd rather not be around people. I don't need a big or seen or big restaurant. I'd rather be safe and secure place in my own. And i think that plays into clearly the the direction areas being beings going on the on this side. I think that originally started out as if thing and now taken advantage of the kobe. Hey rick it's dan congrats on another great exit. Here's the question i have for you. The word exit right. There's a lot of different ways that private companies can come to the public markets. We've seen the traditional ipo airbnb and door dash. Today we've seen in past ones where Direct listing spotify slack. That sort of think you're vc. Firm just launched back this year What are you thinking out of all these different ways of exiting the way you're advising your portfolio companies and. What does this week with nash. Airbnb tell you or form About your experience possibly with the spackling ford. What i think it says is that the one size fits all traditional. Ipo doesn't work. I mean nate. There was a bunch of games that we will try to play to make sure but obviously with all the people involved in all the banking games in syndication teams price discovering sloping. You saw brian. Space laying saw the initial bid. He was shot. So tiny space door dashing. Today they were shot dead in the price range mechanism of attritional. Ipo is your working or most companies today and the looking at alternatives. So i think here's a tremendous number of high quality but he's going to go out and twenty twenty one and there's going to be three paths. I e you're gonna see diversity of ways. The best companies only was going to be a traditional view where people will still complain about them on twitter. Fall the same reasons. Just going to be specs which we're gonna get eight. Increasing share of the best companies want price and date certainty and they'll be reckless. Things seem couple of great ones. The scher wreck. Always great. to hear from you thank you. Thank you could say everybody man i mark. We got breaking news here. Let's get straight to metrorail melissa. The fda outside committee of advisors has just voted in favor of pfizer and beyond tech's covid nineteen vaccine saying that the benefits outweigh the risk for people ages. Sixteen years older now. The vote broke down to seventeen yeses. Four noes and one abstention And really the disagreement there at the end was over whether to include sixteen and seventeen year olds here in the vote just debating. How much evidence really Is there for them. So the discussion is continuing right now. And we'll see if you know. They discuss what age group the emergency use authorization they would recommend Be issued four but a favorable vote there for this first covid nineteen vaccine in the united states. Melissa now goes up to the fda and they make their decision about whether to issue this emergency use authorization seeing pfizer. They're up three percent. This is a big moment. The first vaccine potentially headed to market in the us for this pandemic mel. This is good news. Good news coming out of the fda. What is what would You know assuming. The fda in full approves the panel's decision. What are the next steps because it sounds like the states haven't even decided who would get the vaccine. I mean uber ceo. Dara khosrowshahi is sending letters to all the governor saying that they want he wants uber. Drivers be considered essential workers. Certain things haven't yet even been decided that is true. The first tippy top priority group one eight hundred recommended by cdc Advisory committee for healthcare workers and people who live in long term care facilities like nursing homes. Now states can make their own plans. Most of them have said those are the two groups they plan to give their first doses to so once the fda issues as emergency use authorization within twenty four hours. Almost three million doses are going to go out across the united states. Six hundred thirty six different locations so all the states have somewhat different plans for who. They are going to prioritize And then we're going to hear more about how that. Cdc advisory committee recommends the next groups. And that is where you're going to see a lot of lobbying for who's an essential workers should people over sixty five be prioritized i. This is going to be a debate to come. And of course now. Maderna's vaccine is up next week too. So we're gonna have to vaccines potentially coming out within weeks but this is a really huge moment here after a long committee discussion today. All right man. Thank you mac. Terrell with the latest good news coming out of the fda the first of the first vaccine potentially to be fully of grew for emergency use authorization in the united states. We were looking at some of these travel. Stocks there up in the afternoon session. A delta. A caribbean no surprise Tim seymour what. What should we expect the reaction be tomorrow. I think we had a big run in reopening stocks. And i forgot it's been pretty bullish on airlines good days and bad days so you know average that out you know i i do. Think that you've you've you normalized earnings for airlines or maybe two thousand and twenty three if you get back that international travel and and the business and i at some point you have to say that you know. We've we've done a lot of work on the way back. So i don't think we're going to get a very big response on this. I think you know ultimately yes you by reopening plays when kobe maybe seen in its starkest point And i think we've had that point because again the the concept of the vaccine has been vaccination has been priced in for for for a month and a half at this point so I don't think you run out of these reopening stocks. And i think the trades that we've talked about on the industrial and reopening still work. But i don't think you're gonna see a big bounce on this news. Yeah you see carnival up by about three percents. Nc l. h. Up two point four percent. Dan nathan. I thought it was by the rumor. Sell the news. Well they bought it and they kept on buying it and now we know that the vaccines are coming. I think you know the report as it relates to this visor vaccine earlier in the year that the trump administration did not buy another one hundred million. Doses are so listen. I've said this on the show numerous times. I think the optimism that this is going to be very easy inoculation of our population if you're under thirty million for a whole host of reasons whether it's logistics whether it's antibac- sers whether it supply is just to me i think that's baked into the market right now and it's not discounting the potential for just a push out of that whole process where we will not really be back to normal until sometime late. Twenty twenty one possibly early twenty twenty two so to me. I think you might see these news. Pegs getting sold by investors especially early next year. Dr fauci was saying that he would expect a return to some sort of normalcy by the end of next year guy. We're making the point before that on. On the most recent vaccine. Mondays of good news. The market impact had been less and less. And less. what do you think will be tomorrow. I don't know necessarily if it's a broader market thing. Because i unless i'm way off face i thought this was somewhat expected in terms of this outcome and it is a great outcome so i don't know necessarily broader market. We'll say is. I know for a fact that dan nathan at risk versus was talking about five getting forty three dollars which was the high we saw late. Two thousand eighteen early two thousand and nineteen. Here we are now. You have to make a decision. I think it's probably a good idea to take a little money off the table and we've been somewhat steadfast in. Ib the biotech etf. Which as last. I looked right around one fifty or so which is another all time high. So i'd be taken prophets adviser rolling the dice and continuing to say long. And i'd be yeah. It feels though karen like this could help pave the way for the markets to continue being strong into your end. At least yes. I think so. I kind of disagree with dan and the thought of even if they're even if the vaccine isn't rolled out seamlessly and even if there are hiccups that the the positive sentiment that comes from it. I think will be enough to keep this market buoyed. And then who knows. We wouldn't get a stimulus package. I don't know that'll happen but So i do think this good news will continue to be good news for a while. I'll be less and less you know. Bang for the buck. Every time i think for the fda had come out with something different that would have been obviously far more newsworthy. This was this was expected. But i think as the population gets inoculated. I think that we'll continue to see positive. News all right just taking a check on some of the stay at home. Stocks peleton zoom there each down about a percent right now. We'll keep monitoring the market reaction as we go along coming up another part of the market that could get a boost from despiser news energy. It had a big day today. We'll dive into the options pits. Take a look at what is around the corner. Stay tuned welcome to pass one eight. Today was a huge day for the energy trade brand jumping above fifty dollars a barrel for the first time since march while wti had its best. Mid-november let's bring in. Mike co spotted a big move for one energy name in the options market which sees. Yeah we were taking a look at oxford dental which saw well above average daily options volume calls outpacing by about four to one. The most active options were january. Twenty two straight calls more than twenty five thousand of those traded for a dollar sixty five buyers. Those calls righteously betting that the rally in that stock could continue. But i would point out. This wasn't the only one we also saw it in south west slumber j. cabot oil and gas apache diamond back and of course. Xl energy etf. All of these were seeing unusually bullish ups activity today. Timmy by by moves like these big long slumber j. For the last three months four months and and you know people forget also how we started all this move remember. This was a price war between russia and opec. That was started. Percolating in kind of you know getting into february and really led the market down. Oil has been the last to come out of this. doesn't mean demands recovered but they didn't expect the demand shock and it's brought a lot more discipline back in opec. Unfortunately that's what it took I think oil prices are going to be able to hold these levels if the dollar stays low and therefore look at best of breed whether it's the integrated names or slumber j. to me Which have lagged that moved back in oil actually and are well below their ovid levels. All right thanks mike. And i'll see you tomorrow tomorrow. Being options action. Full show five thirty. Pm eastern time up next goldman sachs getting all grinchey on shares at best buy just as we close in the holiday rush will tell you what landed the retailer on this nautilus. Much more fast right. After this quick break only fourteen days until christmas and goldman sachs is getting real grinchey on one retail and the big bang slapping a sell rating on best by saying it. Strong twenty twenty performance will be hard to top. You can head over to cnbc dot com slash perjury. More about the call in the meantime. Let's get the trade on this Bowman the analysts. There makes it very clear that he likes the company. It's just the stock's valuation. The cops are gonna get tough. Tim where do you stand on best. Buy grinchey is is probably the right thing to do. Even though this is a company that i'm i'm largely bullshit onto. I think you look at that on ninety dollars. Level on the stock though. And i think you're gonna see holiday season People bought those ipads laptops. You know all kinds of apple gear and phones and printers going into this and throughout the year so I do think this was one of the great years the best buy. We'll see And i think this doc still needs to correct two bit guy. What do you think we're thinking about creating a countdown clock guy by the way for not this christmas but the following christmas well starting on the twenty six right and just every day just for new york make you what you're saying you're saying goldman sachs's grinchey. I know for a fact that when you go to best buy go there with a legal pad and you take notes and then you walk out and you buy the stuff on the line. So maybe maybe the reason they're grinchey is because your shopping habits ever thought of that with that said melissa. I think ninety one makes sense to tim's point because that's where we topped out back in february if you can believe it i'm don't have a huge amount of eps growth. It's not crazy expensive. The quarter was fantastic. But maybe the best is in the stock right now. Ninety one makes sense to me and quickly care in the analysts say. He expects good company reported when the when the company does report. It's quarter in march so expecting a pretty good holiday season. But i guess the question is how much performed was there in. Can they top. This year's performance. I don't think evaluation is really that stretched here at all. I understand you know. They're obviously the beneficiary in many ways but of the pandemic and certainly from work from home. But i don't know i so it's coming in fairmount already. So i'm disagreeing with the grinch here and don't know what the opposite of the grinch was but a frosty on it. I like it since even do okay. Good one guy up next year. Final trades miss the path forward race in opportunity in america. Look at the economics of a latino community including representation in corporate america education and entrepreneurship. That is tonight eight. Pm eastern time here on cnbc tanker the final trae. Tim seymour disney. I mean you want new content. How about that kardashian. Family on hulu star. I mean reason enough to buy disney ten nathan. Yeah i think a real unsung player in that content. Worst sirius satellite radio sirius. Karen with dan on that and i agree. We're talking to the half time. Call today on home depot. Which dan like from the chart. I like from the Valuation home depot. Lowe's had good earnings good investor. Day and i like home depot as well guy money starts right now some bonds last a lifetime some bonds inspire confidence and some you grow to rely on. These are the bonds worth investing in for nearly fifty years. Pimco has reinvented fixed. Income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. So no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. Pimco a global leader in active fixed income learn more at pimco dot com slash bonds all investments contain risk and may lose value. Console your investment professional before investing.

disney netflix pimco airbnb Tim seymour melissa bob eiger Dan nathan biden administration three percent comcast twenty two percent calvin mcdonald julia Hbo karen barnum Ceo bob peck cream daniel Cfo christine mccarthy thirty. Two percent
Tuesday, Oct. 27: Jon Meacham

The View

37:16 min | 3 months ago

Tuesday, Oct. 27: Jon Meacham

"Subscribe to our podcast to get hot topics delivered every afternoon, and while you're at it, rate US and Labor Review. A brand new US darts live right now. We're just one week away from Election Day Twenty Twenty Passing Judgment Amy Kuney Barrett is confirmed as America's newest Supreme Court justice, and while she pledges to serve without bias a judge declares independence not only Congress and the president but also from the private beliefs that might otherwise move her outrage Democrats are making their verdict loud and clear. One of the darkest days in two hundred and thirty one year history. Of the United States Senate will their next move trying to pack the court and did the White House need to pack them in. So tightly at her reception just weeks after hosting a super spreader event. And if you think America's future has never been more uncertain historian, Jon Meacham is giving you an eye opening look at how history may be repeating itself in the battle for the soul of America. Plus columnist and author Berry Rice is given her view as guest co host. Here, come hot topics with Whoopi. Sarah. Haynes chewy Bihar Sunny. And Meghan McCain. Now. Let's get things started. Hello and welcome to the view joys not here today and honest not here today. But joining us as guest cohost please welcome columnist and author of the book how to Fight Antisemitism Barry Weiss welcome back Berry. Thank you so much more excited to be here. Excellent. So let's start. American history was made last night when amy conybeare Barrett was sworn in as our newest Supreme Court justice and even though she didn't get a single vote from the Democrats, she pledges to be a judge for all. Americans take a look a judge declares independence. Not only from Congress and the president. But. Also from the private beliefs that might otherwise move her. The judicial oath captures the essence of the judicial duty. The rule of law must always control. My fellow Americans. Even though we judges don't face elections. We still work for you. Well so That sounded good I. Think it made a point. You know. I. Always believe that justices when they becalm Supreme Court justices have to Change somehow like Anthony Kennedy. Did he went from being very right wing guy and you know seemed to be judging about the law. So how do you feel when you look at this and you hear this? How do you feel about how it all went down Sarah? Well and the whole process felt rushed in and for my personal beliefs, it was inappropriate to push this through but even the pictures of the swearing in this happened hours after she was confirmed, she took the oath and it was dark out and it felt secretive and just strange and like you said, this is the first time in one hundred and fifty one years that she didn't receive one single vote from the minority party and. So, it kind of spoke to how divided we are. So there was a bit of heavy heartedness I watched this and it made me sad because swearing in a Supreme Court justice should be a great moment for our country and also you know for her as an individual I. if it wasn't her, it would have been someone else. So I don't blame her personally but what a heavy burden to bear on such a momentous moment and I think that it just. It. Kind of spoke to how divided we are everyone race to their corners of their party. It was party over people I feel like in this instance and the only person that gave me hope Senator Susan Collins who was the one Republican dissenting vote and you know she said something that resonated with me. She said you know what? I have concentrated on his being fair and consistent, and I do not think it is fair nor consistent to have a Senate confirmation vote prior to the election but that was only one person. So that was kind of where I had to rest my hope. So sunny when you heard all of that, what was your impression? Because you know of course, he put her in three years ago. So that she he couldn't confirm her you know. The neck and a couple of years do you how do you feel about? Do you feel like she's ready for this or is this something that you should get thrown into? Well, excuse a constitutional law scholar I. Don't know that anyone is questioning her legal chops i. mean she has only been a judge for. Three years, she was put on the circuit court I believe in two thousand and seventeen. She's never tried a case before she's never argued in front of the Supreme Court. So that kind of experience is lacking, but she certainly a brilliant constitutional law scholar that being said it was really odd that she even sort of participated in the pomp and circumstance that we saw yesterday she didn't know president trump anything she didn't have to be at the on the White House grounds especially after the super spreader event of her appointment at the rose. Garden. And so I thought that was poor form I thought it showed a tremendous lack of judgment and I think that her appointment is really going to change. The way. The Supreme Court is going not only to handle cases, but the way the Supreme Court is going to look going forward because we all know that the Republican Party has been packing. The Supreme Court for decades they've been packing be judiciary for decades. Trump has put now three justices Supreme Court, and just Dozens and dozens of judges on the federal judiciary. So I think what we're going to see is perhaps the Democrats unpacking the supreme. Court. So that is more of a balance because right now, the Supreme Court does not reflect the values of America. The Supreme Court now reflects the minority of the values of America, and that is important because it's supposed to really reflect what is a balance of American values with a swing justice deciding sort of what what the law is and bad is not what we are seeing now. So this is going to lead I think to unpacking a core which may lead to thirteen justices. which would reflect the federal appeals courts around the country or some impeachments, which is possible. With Supreme, court judges, they also can be impeached berry. When you look at this, did you think boy this is a little quick. Did you think I'm not sure she? She's the person or were you comfortable that she might be the person we don't know. Well. I'm confused about what Sonny's saying about packing and unpacking the court packing the court is about adding more justices to the bench, which is something that people like. In l.. Hunt. Omar. Advocating for packing the court doesn't mean appointing justices that some people don't like I think that's really where the debate is. Everyone knew that Barrett had the votes to get through. You can be angry at the Republicans for their hypocrisy with garland versus Amy Kuney Barrett. But I think we're the conversation is right now is about whether or not the Democrats if they win the Senate and if Joe Biden wins if they're going to fundamentally change the nature of the Court as Roosevelt once tried to do and I think it's really interesting that you know there's tons of discussion about respect or Ginsburg mourning her death. The anger that a lot of Liberals and Democrats feel of Republicans not honoring her last wish. But in twenty, nine, thousand, nine, hundred, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg was asked by Nina Totenberg NPR. If she believed in court packing, which was already sort of in the at that point and she opposed it, she said nine is a very good number. I think one thing that a lot of centrists and moderates are looking for right. Now. Is Whether Joe? Biden we'll have the strength to stand up to the left wing flank of his party. The fact that he is refused on the record to say whether or not he will pack the court I think is is very suspicious to some people in the fact that journalists aren't forcing him to ask that essential question that he's saying only answer at after I win is pretty ridiculous as far as I'm concerned. Well. Here's what I think. We're talking about weight led me up hold on hold on one second. Let me because I I think when Sonny was talking about packing the coach. I think she was talking about the fact that the lower courts have impact I don't think she was talking about. The Supreme, court that's what that's what I. Rhyme court. You were talking about this for us. I was particularly talking about the Supreme Court being packed and I use those words very specifically. Because if you look at an article in Newsweek written by a very good friend of mine in a legal scholar, Tom Rogers and it's entitled unpacking the Supreme Court and that is because again, Republicans have been packing not only the federal judiciary they have been packing the Supreme Court by design that has been the Republican plan and in order to unpack the Supreme Court meaning unpacked the culture, unpack the values that are on the Supreme Court in order to do that, you would have to add. Either term limits age limits or you would have to add justices which would been. The Supreme Court which would lead to an unpacking so I use those term. specically, because I was referring to Tom Rogers. which has been discussed very much but also berry to your other point about Joe Biden answered that question and he has said that he is going to put together a coalition, a bipartisan Colin who studied not. Of the Supreme Court that's not answering the getting because he's he's what he's doing. It's urging question in a bipartisan way because he's leading to he wants this this country not to be divided at as it has been, he wants to bring the country together and a way to do that is to study the issue and a studied issue in a bipartisan way. That's the best answer that anyone has really provided. Shoe studying the issue is great when a presidential nominee. Says that he is unwilling to answer the question that the minute after Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed last night you had all of the most in my view where the energies and the Democratic Party. Ilhan Omar. AOC. Presley tweeting about packing the court that's alive and relevant issue, and for the Democratic nominee to not answer it, I believe it to dodge to talk about appointing a commission that may be all well and good. But he should have into that just like rb John Point Out I will point out that he actually did answer this issue twice and the fact that AOL see and those young ladies and all of those votes they don't speak for the whole Party and really there are lots of ways to shift this. You know one could impeach judges that have not stuck to the rules of being judges. On the Supreme Court, that's been done several times. So there's a lot of ways to balance stuff out and I'm quite happy he didn't answer and I'm going to tell you why and then we're going to go to break. I'm glad he didn't answer because frankly he doesn't have to. You know we ask a Lotta questions, we want answers, but we don't always get them and now I don't think we're going to get them the way we want them now. So you know this is this is going to go up to the to the bottom of it. You don't think the American people to an answer about that. I think they will get an answer when he's ready to give one when he has the information that he's comfortable sharing, and now I don't think that the American people are use now to getting answers to the questions that they ask because we've had an administration that doesn't ever answer a question we'll be right back. On Motivational Speaker Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner under fire for claiming black Americans shouldn't blame his father-in-law for not getting ahead. You can't want them to be successful more than they want to be successful. Make an impact with black Americans at the polls. The time and splendidly come we have to win. This is the most important election in the history of our country I will draw the best of stopped word. I'll be an American president who will be your next president I m your president of law and order I won't fanned the flames of election-night ABC. and. This is a battle we will win and we'll do it together ABC election-night lines and on Apple News. Still Ahead Historian Jon Meacham gives his view of what Amy Conybeare at joining the Supreme Court means to him as a man faith and why this election is so vital to the soul of America he's endorsing a candidate for the first time ever. Welcome back yesterday White House senior adviser Jared Kushner was talking of how much this administration has done for the black community and claim that you can't blame his father-in-law for not putting in the effort. Take a look one thing we've seen in. The black community, which is mostly Democrat is that president trump's policies are the policies that can help people break out of the problems that they're complaining about but he can't want them to be successful more than they want to be successful and what you're seeing throughout the country now is a groundswell of support in the black community because they're realizing that all the different bad things that the media and the Democrats have said about President trump are not true. Boy, am I getting tired of hearing this crap from people who don't know anything about what's going on but let me not be a bonehead. I guess I'm supposed to ask this question how black voters going to react to that statement sunny being the black woman on the panel I'm glad. I fact that jared Kushner. Trafficking in racial tropes that have been used by people for such a long claiming that black people aren't successful because they're lazy isn't going to bode well. For the Republican, Party. So close to election when you have I, think the stats at this point are. Black eligible voters now make up twelve point five percent of the electorate up from eleven point five percent right and that a pew research survey found that sixty three percent of black registered voters are extremely motivated to vote. The other thing is you look at the Messenger you have someone like, Jared Kushner. Who is only in the White House because his father in law placed him there he is woefully. Unqualified to be there and he you know got into Harvard because his father paid two five million dollars to get him there. So someone who has made it only because people have paid for his position and appointed him to positions really has no business talking about success in any way shape or form. And I'm just really surprised. that he would do so. Well, I shouldn't be surprised that he would say something like that because I think it's probably emblematic of what the White House thinks about black Americans, and thinks about the constituents they're. They're black constituents telling what he said I'm on what was your reaction to hearing? I'm sorry what was your reaction to hearing this Sarah when you heard it didn't. Use. All. It was a detached extremely tone I don't think the black community has been a focus of this administration and I you know conveniently find that we're talking about it right now in the throes of an election. So there's a lot of rattling off of points about historically black historically black colleges also the opportunities they had some talking points and I think he would have been better just sticking to those off script doesn't work well for him clearly and or his father-in-law but I think the thing that jumped out at me was language reveals your thought patterns and when he says complaining about. He's speaking to how they view what the black community has spoken up about, and there are extremely valid points that you can't really argue with to say complaining sounds like they're throwing something at a whiny toddler and so to me I found not the most off-putting moment of what he was saying and. I don't think this helped if they were going for more votes. With the black community this was not the way to get them. Yeah. What about you bear when you when you heard him sort of. Lang all of these things out you know prosecuting the clan and making lynching a national hate crime, which they could have done as you know a couple of years ago but they didn't because they didn't want to be bothered. But when you heard all of this, do you think he? Well. Where do you think he was saying? Wall sometimes, it feels like this administration wants to lose the election and watching a moment like that. You're kind of thinking is this is Mr closing argument I mean. It's baffling to me like everyone said, meeting was utterly tone deaf but is that a surprise? Not a surprise? I do think a Charlemagne the God had a really interesting interview a few days ago I think he's super interesting on CNN and he talked about how trump is successfully courting not older black voters who are reliably Democrat but younger black voters and there was a recent poll that found that black voters between the ages of eighteen and forty four. Their support for trump has jumped from ten percent in the last election to twenty one percent in this one I look it's still a very low number, but I thought that was quite interesting to say nothing of jared, Kushner's utterly tone deafness which re and a half years and we shouldn't be surprised by. I I would have liked to have heard I'd like to see that poll. Well see you know. What percent of he may he may he may. But here's what he doesn't. Here's what is wrong for me. If you want people to stop bitching about stuff, then do something about it. You want people to stop saying, Hey, stop shooting us then stopped shooting us you want to understand what's going on in the black community as the white folks that are marching with all these black lives matter kids because they're saying we get it. Why don't you? It's a whole thing. So when you talk about what you're going to do for the black community, don't tell me you gonNA pass this law that law because you had an opportunity to do that what I want you to do as I want you to address the issues if you address the issues, then I'll have some faith when you do this, this is like a Fart Madonna Storm. It's gone we'll be right back. Welcome back on her podcast the other day comedian Sarah Silverman weighed in on so-called cancel culture and she claims there can be unintended consequences tackle up in this cancel culture. And we all know what I'm talking about whether you think there is one or there isn't one or where you stand on it and there's a Lotta Gray matter there. But without a path to redemption. When you take someone, you found tweet they wrote seven years ago or a thing that they said and you expose it and you say this person should be no more banish them forever. They're gonNA, find someplace where they are accepted. And it's not going to be with progressives, which ironically means to be changed progress. So. This is an issue y'all feel strongly about I'm told Berry this is one that you particularly feel strongly about tell me about. I do because. This is a country and the values that I believe in believe in giving people second chances I believe that no one should be. Hung or have their reputation destroyed or lose their job because of a mistake or liking a bad tweet and I think often times when we talk about canceled culture people think about celebrities that have gotten in trouble people that are famous people that frankly. Have, the financial net if they lose a job but I think about someone like Emmanuel Kathy Emmanuel Kathy. Worked for the San Diego, utility company he was driving his truck by a protest a few months ago when his hand was hanging out the window someone snapped a picture of his hand and he said that he was making a white supremacist hand gesture. He is Hispanic his family is from Mexico, but it didn't matter the people that carried out the investigation at the San Diego. Utility Company decided that what he was doing was racist gesture and he was fired from his job. Now, this is a working. Class guy he was playing with his fingers he had no idea what he was doing. These are the kinds of stories that we talk about when we're talking about canceled culture and I think that I find it ironic that Progressives as Sarah Silverman wisely put it in that clip the kind of people who talk about giving criminals giving murderers a second chance the people that care about things like prison reform, which I also feel passionately about that they also feel that someone should have their social reputation destroyed. Because a mistake like that and I think that that is wrong and it is deeply un-american. And you have an issue with canceled culture as well. Sunny. Yes. I do I have an issue with the term actually cancelled culture because I think for far too long. We've let people get away with really bad behavior. And now deemed it that they're being canceled because of. Their behavior rather than being held accountable for their behavior I. Think it's high time that many people. That behave badly. Behave poorly behaved in racist manners be held accountable for it because there should be consequences to behaviour. So rather than call cancel culture why not call it consequence culture why not? Call it other things like that and when you look at it through that Lens. Then, I, think that that's different. And around, we used to say things were. To. Well I don't know if you are the subject of the behavior. Then, then perhaps you look at it a little differently, right? There's a difference. would. Go ahead, Sarah. Even if it was even if it was called consequence culture, which I tend to use the term cancel, the consequence should fit the crime and I don't think in this day and age there's any spectrum for that bucket of wrong. We put everyone in the same bucket and there's like a pariah scarlet scarlet letter on them and it often I actually agree with a lot of what Berry said it ends up wiping out full families association people look back and dig, and if you have a picture with the person that's been. suffered a consequences. Sunny would say you're guilt by association you can no longer be near them I think there's this unforgiving. Culture right now, that's become acceptable to mob mentality and I think sadly, if it were to affect you or someone you love we would expect more grace and nuance, but we don't extend that to other people. Well I happen to know a little something about canceled culture as does Berry. You know I was canceled. West. Canceled it if it wasn't for. Barbara Walters saying, Hey, would you come in do this show? I would still probably be out of work because I wasn't getting any work for five years. We went through all my savings went through everything but she gave me an opportunity and that's what happens. Someone has to make a space for you and say I'm going to take the chance I. Really, believe that it's important to find out the facts of things before we just erase stuff because oftentimes people are being raised not because you thought they actually did something bad. But because people have decided that this is the thing we're we're going after now. So I'm real. I'm real particular about going after people and cancelling them because sometimes they're not guilty. I'm just saying we'll be. Right. Back. Staying informed has never been more important get information is coming at US faster than ever. So how do you make sensible start here? Hey, I'm Brad milkey from ABC News every weekday we will break down the latest headlines in just twenty minutes straightforward reporting dynamic interviews and analysis experts you can trust always credible always solid start here from news twenty minutes every weekday on your smart speaker or your favorite podcast. APP. I'm on founder of owning myself product on cell that begin cruelty for now Polish made in USA and based in. California owning a small business can be challenging but rewarding as well. Since Povich many have been forced to do their own nails at home but using safer and cleaner products on Michelle makes the experience more pleasant. I'm thrilled to offer the view fifty percent off a variety of my product. Thank you for your support and happy shopping. Welcome back Oscar Win and Marlee Matlin is spelling it out for people that still aren't sure what they need to do to vote their view. Watch the clip. How does meal in voting? Book? You must. Register. about you must do question absentee ballot do it now? Don't they fill it out and sign it make sure that you mail it in early if you know what you do consider hoping to fend. Cheese. Watch these hands I. Love It. Vote Twenty, twenty. It's you know China, get everybody going and motivated, and thank you Marley for putting that out because I think a whole lot of people didn't remember. We have to get everybody motivated to vote I think we're going to go to commercial and when we come back, we're coming back with JON MEACHAM WE'LL BE, right? Back. Back, it may seem like. To some people, the country's never been in this deep dark kind of place before. But in the new documentary sole of America Historian Jon meacham reminds us we have been down these roads before and how we found a way out take a look. So often people in American history have felt that they were on a precipice. So they lash out on the long you saw white southerners after reconstruction. The second plan immigration shifting. On nine hundred thirty. Incredibly powerful political motion and the great political leaders. Are the ones who don't cater to it. Who Tamp it down instead of flaming. Please welcome John Nature. Coming. Morning. Thank you Ma'am appreciate how you've done. You've done something for the first time in your very long career as as a historian and a presidential biographer you've actually endorsed a presidential candidate. Joe Biden to be exact and you spoke on his behalf at the DNC why what made you change your mind now? And do something. So really unprecedented for for you. Well I. Think this is an existential electric I think decency and democracy and the role of fact, as opposed to automatic reflexive ideological passion are all on the ballot and I believe that it's given to those of us too much is given much is expected I've been very fortunate in my life look I'm a white male episcopate you the things tend to work out for me in this country and I think that. Is at its best when he will reach out and don't simply clench their fists and keep their hands in their pockets. Were better when we hope not when we fear, we're better when we build a not when we try to tear down and I think it's a pretty clear choice I'm not a Republican I'm not a Democrat I voted for presidents of both parties. Look I'm George Bush's biographer but I think that. Vice President Biden is clearly the best choice for this moment and I felt that if my conscience and my heart and my brain we're all in alignment on this I had an obligation to speak out. The election is only a week away. If Vice President Biden wins what's the immediate impact on the country and? Also if if president trump were be reelected. Great question if Vice President Biden winds of a lot depends on also defining. What that win is does the president accept those results and as important? Do the president's most fervent supporters except those results if there's a clear and clean victory and people are everybody signed on to the constitutional experiment as as we're supposed to be I, think the first thing going to happen. and the first thing I hope that happens is there's a rational response to the pandemic because until we get the pandemic under control the the economic structural shifts that we're all dealing with are not gonna be fixed. The other thing I hope that happens in the fullness of time is that politics will become a again part of our lives and not the consuming prevailing element. Of politics the last five years as head this immense control over our mind share and I think that Vice President Biden has the capacity to return us to a place where we don't have to wake up worrying about what the president might have said overnight. Last night Amy Coney Barrett was sworn into the Supreme Court at a ceremony at the White House So she has now Justice Barrett. What are your thoughts on how this process was conducted and what will the political effects me? I understand why people are angry about the political hypocrisy of of the Republican majorities views on filling the Supreme Court seats but ultimately, the Constitution itself was adhered to and so one can be unhappy about the way this unfolded but it's a totally legitimate constitutionally legitimate confirmation and as president trump has said and I would urge everybody to remember elections have consequences and if you're looking for consistency of principle. And people to follow what they said in one era into the next politicians probably not the place where you should look for that right I mean politics is imperfect, very human undertaking, and so it's GonNa be characterized by the vices that all of us have in our own lives. There's GonNa be selfishness. There's GonNa be hypocrisy. There's GONNA be self justification I. Think the Real Question Beyond Justice Barrett is. Particularly for religious folks in the country of white evangelicals. The Supreme Court has come to occupy this powerful position in the center of Conservative mind. It really started not with the road decision in seventy three, but it started in one, thousand, nine, hundred, sixty, two. With the school prayer decisions that you couldn't have Organi school prayer and in many ways is started nineteen fifty four with the Brown decision when people began to realize very clearly that the supreme court mattered. Enormously, my own hope for us going forward is that particularly people who are inspired by their religion to be in the public arena, which is totally legitimate and and to be understood in expected. I would hope they would start focusing a little bit more on the sermon on the mount than the Supreme Court I. Think We'd be better off this looks did that. John. Documentary the soul of America. You note a significant number that stuck with me, which is seventeen percent. you say that only seventeen percent of Americans have trust in the federal government and I'm wondering if you think that trump's election was a symptom of this lack of trust or was he a catalyst for it? I think both if if I may if I could be Anglican about it I think that both are true i. think he is a figure in a populist at culturally populist tradition who? Took on who managed to exacerbate and deepen a fundamental distrust of elites and of institutions, which is fascinating given his own socioeconomic place. But but that's a that's a conversation for a history and biography. He's both symptomatic laws and one of the things that we have to deal with in the country is what was it about the last five years the last ten years that made so many Americans so desperate. So unhappy. Some were desperate. Some were unhappy with the way the country was working that they were willing to take a flyer on this incredibly disruptive figure. And I think that we're going to have to deal with that the number the number you say in one, thousand, nine, hundred, eighty, four, we had seventy seven percent of the country believe the federal government could basically trusted. Now it's seventeen percent, and I, think that feels a little high to me. One of the tasks of potential Biden presidency is GONNA be and you get people to believe in the common good again. Right, what a great way I mean. That's the most brilliant way to put it. Can we get them to believe in the common good because the common good is the American good right. So hopefully, you know something will change and. You. Know we'll be heading forward and I just want to tell people to check out your podcast. It was said the documentary the soul of America premieres tonight on HBO at nine. Am John Thank you for coming to us and we'll be right back. Well, that's it for us today. Thank you Barry It's always a pleasure y'all all look good. All of us will see tomorrow why my by.

Supreme Court president Vice President Biden Sarah Silverman America Jon Meacham Berry Rice White House Trump Jared Kushner Party United States Senate Amy Kuney Barrett US White House Meghan McCain amy conybeare Barrett Haynes Congress Justice Barrett
The Rush Limbaugh Show Podcast - May 12 2020

The Rush Limbaugh Show

1:51:03 hr | 9 months ago

The Rush Limbaugh Show Podcast - May 12 2020

"Welcome to today's edition of the rush. LIMBAUGH show podcast. Hey, greetings, my friends great to have you with us as we kick off yet. Another three hour broadcast, excellence, Extravaganza and excursion hosted by me. Rush limbaugh America's Real Anchorman, our phone number if you WANNA be on. The program is eight, hundred, two, eight, two, two, eight, eight, two and I check emails naturally the email address. ELRUSHBO EIBNET DOT, US. I can't been watching the Senate committee. Hearing with the testimony from all the CDC people and the doctor found G. And I don't folks. I'm I'm really I'm. I'm fighting trying very hard not to be a cynic. But I think this is an exercise in nothing, but a bunch of gum flapping. This is just a bunch of people trying to get themselves onto record. To cover their rear ends, if the worst happens down the line. I am certainly not inspired watching any of this. And by that I mean I'm not I haven't heard anybody say anything remotely positive. I haven't heard anybody extol the virtues of the people of America. Well, I take it back there. A couple of witnesses have given lip service to that. But. This has been an exercise in in what Washington has become. And that's many things is an exercise. In self focus self-aggrandizing. Self Self Promotion. And the for the Democrats, the only reason for this hearing today was to get to the FAO Chea there. To warn that the biggest mistake we could make is what Donald trump is doing trying to reopen the country biggest mistake we could make. Will lead to needless. Suffering will lead to needless death. We cannot open the schools in the fall, and that's why they wanna Doctor Fauci up there. and Dr Fauci came through and even Chuck Schumer before the hearing today before the committee hearing. Told found she to go for it. He was on MSNBC last night. And he said Dr Ci will have the opportunity to testify for the first time. Without Donald Trump lurking over his shoulder. Do you realize what a Crock that? How many times of Fao she been on? Meet the press by himself. How many times is that? A Foul G BEN ON FACE? The Nation by himself. Without Big Orangemen working over his shoulder, threatening to beat him up and to pound him in the ground if he doesn't say what big orange man wants to say. And so Chuck Schumer says you know what I say Dr found she go for it. Tell us the truth. America needs to hear the truth. And president trump. Your boss needs to hear the truth. I'm sorry, the Democrat Party is the last place to go to get the truth. The Democrat. Party is the home of the ruination of this country. If the Democrat party prevails. In this corona fight if their policies prevail. Then you can say goodbye to this nation as a constitutional republic. Look, there's always going to be an America's always going to be a place called America. But. You cannot. Sit By and watch this the world's greatest economy. Purposefully destroyed and hold onto what this country was. Just can't do it. Now they're making this big pitch. Universal basic income two thousand dollars a month for every American. I warned you this was coming. They're getting close to this point in time where they think. That they can convince a majority of Americans. The government can provide for everybody. You don't even have to work. You don't even have to go to school. We can keep you fan. We can keep you in your house and we'll give you two thousand dollars a month. Vote for us. seriously pushing it out there. And I'm telling you all of these medical and science experts. I mean if you if you just take their tests on the day before this committee and isolated. They are much closer aligned with the policies in wishes of the Democrat Party. You take a look at these blue states that are still shutdown. People are getting restless. They're opening up various businesses defiance of the governors in these states, California Elon Musk is one. Pennsylvania is another example. This is seen as an opportunity by the. Democrat party to finally achieve their objectives. which I it's IT'S I. I can't believe that that they're this close to it. And they're openly advocating it, but they are, they're. They're making no bones about. What their desires are here. rampal today where I'm GonNa ask Cook It. He hit me the sound bite of this. Rand! Paul said the doctor. She and I'm paraphrasing. Because don't have the quote right in front of me. But. He said Doctor. You're not the end word for me. You're not the final authority. You're not the only authority and all this. I think you're the last word. On all this. Silently stood up and cheered it that. Because it's absolutely correct. Dr Found? She said Hey. There's thirty two seconds left. Can I respond to that? Of course! Dr. J. wanted to respond so they let Dr Algae Respond. Dr John positioned myself as the world's vital authority. No Rally of sat by and let the media do it for you. and. You have happily accepted the role. Anyway get into more of this as the program unfolds. I I think it's all worthless I? Don't think anything's being accomplished here. I can't imagine your average ordinary American citizen watching this looking for some kind of. Upbeat. In American people can take bad news, but. Watch this and you WanNa you WanNa, have some confidence that you people you're watching. Have got kiss. Somebody in the US military. Don't worry. We got this. You believe them. Somebody from the CDC comes along. Don't worry. We got this. You don't believe him. If any of these people come don't worry. We got this. You don't believe him. This is. Out of Control outsized. Administrative State bureaucracy on steroids. It really is a bunch of people trying to protect their little fiefdoms or their. Areas of. so-called expertise, thank you for that question senator. After most ridiculous question, you can possibly imagine. Thank you for them like Bernie Sanders crazy where the president of the United States, who doesn't care. If people are thank you for that question senator. From the trump administration, thank you for math questions senator. Anyway there are other things happening out there. Besides all this. and. I want to focus on one of them right now. And this is the ongoing effort here to expose. The coup and the people who ran it. That attempted to overturn a duly constituted election, legal and fair election. Attempted to reverse the results attempted to. Get the winner thrown out of office. With a failed allegation phony allegation of colluding with the Russian. We continue to learn even more about this I. WanNa. Take you back. May Not remember this. When the transcript of the phone call. Between President Trump, and the president of Ukraine was released. It was. Really, noteworthy. That the president. Asked the president of Ukraine. For instance. In looking into crowd strike. Now when I heard what I what I read that in the transcript of the phone call. Man Oh man did my radar rise. Up and my red flags rise up. Because that told me that trump. was on this like they say white on Rice. and. It told me that what trump was actually doing in this phone call with the president of Ukraine. was asking the president to cooperate with bar. Cooperate with Durham. In the investigation into the coup to get rid of trump. Now let me refresh your memory. As to cross-examine may ring a Bell I've heard that and I. Don't know what that is. When the Democrat National Committee! Computer Network servers. Were hacked in two thousand sixteen. Democrat? National Committee refused to let the FBI. Examine the server. or any part of the network? Debbie Blabbermouth Schultz. The Chairman of the Democrat National Committee refused. To turn over the servers or any part of the network to the FBI forty forensic analysis instead. The Democrat national. Committee claimed that they were hacked by the Russians. The Russians hacked and the Russians then led to the hacking of Nesta's emails and the embarrassing reveal of those emails during the campaign starting in October the Russians did it. The Russians did it. The Russians did it. And Debbie Blabbermouth Schultz, went out and hired a private sector. Computer Network analysis construction and. Forensics team call crown strike to come in and do the forensic analysis of their servers. Yo refusing to let the FBI and by the way James Call Me, and the FBI said okay fine. You don't want to see your servers fine. Let me ask you if the FBI comes. Knocking on your office door wants to see your server, and you say sorry I. Don't want you to walk away. Think, the FBI is going to just walk away when you tell them that they can't see your server that you don't need them to look at it that you've got it handled. Well. That's exactly what happened. The Democrat National Committee. And the FBI saw okay. Comb McCabe and the Voice of fine. To this day. The F. B. I. has not seen the Democrat National Committee servers. Or an aspect of the network that was. Hacked, we don't even know that it was hacked. The truth of the matter is. We don't even know that now you might be so. What's the big deal about this? Let me. Connect, the dots for you. We have been connecting the dots and talking about all the bombshells. That are in the classified documents that were released. By Adam Schiff. Who chaired that basement committee? Looking into trump Russia collusion and then. Ukraine impeachment and so forth. But a particular bombshell has not gotten much news. Even though it came out on Friday. The released transcripts. These are the transcripts that the director of acting director, national, intelligence Rick. Grenell He forced the release of these transcripts because he told shift. If you don't do it I'm going to. So shift. They didn't want these transcripts to be released because look what they've exposed. They've exposed that. Call Me Brennan Clapper. Every one of these people were lying for their teeth about this. Russian collusion business. And, what they've also exposed exposed. Is that Barack? Obama was probably the orchestrator of this more on that coming up and you don't WanNa miss this. The released transcripts showed. That the president of crowd strike was brought in to testify before shifts committee. This was again. The firm hired to investigate. The Democrat National Committee servers and computer network to find out who did it to find out who hacked them. The president of crowd strike, told Shifts Committee. They didn't know. They couldn't find out they couldn't learn. They couldn't say for certain. The Russians had the hat. The DNC server. They could not say for sure that the Russians were involved in letting Podesta's emails out. Well Now Fox for crying out loud. That is only the entire basis. For the entire Russian collusion claim. that the F. B. I. was refused permission to see the DNC server. They hired crowd strike crowd strike was sent to. They didn't publicly. The DNC said this. That the people they hired crowd strike demonstrated that their servers were hacked by Russia. And so that was part of this. Two year. Never ending pack of lies about this story at turns out. The president of Crops Stike couldn't figure out who had hacked the DNC server. They couldn't. Say for certain that it was the Russians. Crowd strike also never allowed the FBI to examine the DNC. Serve one now. We know why. My guess is the server wasn't hacked. I, don't think the Russians hacked the DNC server at all. They made that up to. And the guy that runs crown strike. was testifying under oath. They couldn't confirm that the Russians have done the hacking, and yet in the New York Times and the Washington Post and CNN and all of that every day for two years in addition. To intelligence officials, claiming they had evidence of trump colluded with Russia that trump was a spy was a traitor. So. They had evidence that the Russians hacked the DNC server and. Had tried to to hack the Republican National Committee servers, but had failed. Now something happened. There were some stuff that was on the DNC server did. Leak out of it, but. I'm here to tell you that it was an inside job. Somebody at the Democrat National Committee, actually went in there and arranged for whatever day they wanted out. To be stolen from that served with the Russians didn't hack it. It didn't come from an out-. Outside commuter computer connection outside the building outside the network. But yet everybody has been laboring under the belief that it did. All this time. And this assertion the Russians hacked. The DNC server was the entire basis that got Russian collusion. Up started. Rolling I take a break here. I'm real long in the segment. Take a break and be back after this. You. Know, that's another thing. I guarantee you this this committee hearing. And I even had a bunch of people say to me in the email rush. You realize the Republicans run the Senate right. They're running. I don't care folks. This has gone. This has gone way beyond. The Standard Way Look at this. What's happening in this committee? Everybody there. is looking out for everybody else. They're making sure nobody gets harmed. Nobody gets criticized. Nobody loses their job. Nobody has the reputation sullied. That's what's going on here. This is a collective cya. Hearing. There in I haven't learned a single thing I didn't know. I know that foul she. CanNot possibly be goaded into talking about the possibility of opening up too late. Don't you think we ought to be looking at this that way? Here FAO G here Pelosi your own people. They got plenty of money. Their refrigerators fully stocked. Their jobs are not threatened. And they're all out there. Saying don't open to Soden. It could be disastrous. Could lead to needless suffering and death. Don't open too soon. Don't open prematurely. What happens if we open too late? What happens if the economic damages so bad that we can't recover? What was the goal here to flatten the curve and a flattening US economy and this hearing is not helping us answer that. I'm just telling you as far as far as the Democrats are concerned Fars. The medias concern. The Senate Committee hearing today has been for one reason as to showcase voucher, and by the way felt she's not you know what he did found. She sent an email to sheryl stolberg reporter for the New York Times last night. telegraphing is testimony. Now he's the director of the national institutes. Institute for Health Infectious Diseases whatever the hell else they. Put it his pervy sitting in New York Times. Reporter and email previewing his testimony today so the New York Times yesterday right what she's GonNa. Say before he says it as the news on every network today. Before the hearing even began was found, she was going to say then found. You got up there and he said it. And he basically warned the Senate reopening, too quickly could lead to needless suffering and death, and that there's no way we're opening the schools in the fall. Just not gonNA, do it. Okay Mission Accomplished as far as the Democrats and the media are concerned. And the Republicans become bit players in all this because that. Was the. Acknowledged objective. Iran Paul pushed back against it a little bit. I'm going to get to that in just a second, but I I want I want to. The option here that we're looking at with this is. We're getting paranoid and worried. Are we opening too soon? We better start looking at. Are we opening too late? His acolytes Schumer Pelosi the media. As I say folks this matters. They've got their jobs. They have their money. They're not. They're not threatened with losing their jobs and not threat. They're going to need two thousand dollar. Check every month from the government. Their careers are not threatened. They worked for the government. And they're deciding that they know. When it's too early to open out are saying don't open too soon. Don't open prematurely. Isn't it about time we started asking? What if we open too late and I know some people are doing in these. Exact words, but that's that's the real concern. What happens if we open too late? What if the economic damages so severe? We've killed the patient. In order to cure disease. What that? You telling me that the only way. To fight. This pandemic is to destroy the US economy. Because? That's what they're telling us. When Thao she says well opening, too quickly could lead to needless suffering up. He's advocating for keeping shut. So we're being led to believe the only way. To defeat this virus. is to keep this nation's economy shutdown and lockdown. That really is what they want to go with. Thought the goal was to flatten the curve. Not Flat in the US economy, but non beginning to rethink what their original objective was. because. That's how everybody ought to be looking at this. What happens if we open all this way too late? Man The power. Of the, forces arrayed against. Reopening the economy. It's startling. It's such a teachable moment. It's such a wonderful opportunity for people of finally learn what the modern. Day Democrat Party is all about. Anyway I WANNA go back to the crowd. Strike business because. These are all things that are connected folks. I know it may be tough to believe. But please don't doubt me this objective of destroying the US economy to save us from virus. It really is destroying. Donald trump that's the objective. They'll in their minds. They'll deal with whatever mess they make in the process later. They have got to get rid of trump. They are singularly focused obsessed with this and they have been since election night two thousand sixteen. It's all connected. Trump Russia collusion cavenaugh the impeachment over the phone. Call with the press you. It's all the same thing. And all of it is ally. They didn't just start telling the truth now. So here are what these declassified transcripts showed. Crowd strike couldn't even say for sure that Russia hacked or stole Democrat National Committee emails, and the reason this is important is because that assertion was the entire basis. For the entire Russian collusion claim that the Rut when when I would ask anybody. I. I asked my friends in wash. What could somebody showed me? You guys are all just accepting the idea that the meddled. What did they do and every time I? Ask somebody they had to DNC servers. They hacked all. Well, they didn't. We know they didn't. We now know the people investigating the hack couldn't say. That the Russians did it or anybody else did it. But even my friends in Washington, even people on my side when I would say because I never believed the Russian meddling and he believed that. That seemed to me nothing but a bunch of conventional wisdom it. Everybody was accepting because it just made things easier. To accept if you'RE GONNA go on TV and talk of this, you have to accept the Russians meddled or else the. Hosts on TV. You'll browbeat you and accuse you of being bigger. Whatever so it's one of these things you have to accept it. I never did. I never thought because I. Never saw any evidence. What was the evidence of Russian hacking? I knew the Russians have a damn thing to do with the outcome of the election. The Russians did not tamper with one vote Rod Rosenstein even said so in announcing indictments of Russians during the Muller hearings. The Russians didn't do diddly squat. But I would ask people. Say They hacked DNC server will now. We know that they didn't. Crowd Strike CEO Shawn Henry Interviewed by the House Intelligence, committee member December, two thousand seventeen. This is three years two and a half years. We've been under a live for two and a half series of them. Declassified documents released by House. Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff. Show, the president of crowd strike couldn't say for certain that Russians downloaded Democrat party emailed. December twenty seventeen. There were Republicans in this damn hearing. Who heard this guy say it? Just like the Republicans in this hearing who heard clapper and Brennan, and all these other people come up and say no. We don't have any evidence. Russia's to and never and they let the Li-. that. These people were telling TV every night that the Russians had had or that. The Russians did collude with trump. And yet the Republicans are new. This is all a lie who knew every syllable of IT WAS BE S. And never publicly corrected the record. They just let all this play out. During an interview made public. Last Thursday Shaun Henry crowd strike explained. That crown strike found some evidence that information was taken from the servers, but it was not conclusive. She got a question from Democrat. Joaquin Castro Texas question. Look. There's evidence of exfiltration, not conclusively, but indicators of exfiltration off the DNC server beating. Somebody took something off of it. Sean. Henry said well. Yeah they believe seventy gigabytes. David were exfiltrated or taken from the DNC network however. When Republican Mike conaway Texas. Asked whether he can unequivocally say. That it was or was not exfiltrated out of the DNC from what you know of the Crown Strike Guy couldn't even say that. Much less that the Russians did it, the Crown Strike Guy couldn't even say he couldn't even confirm that any data left the DNC server. Much less than Russia, did it? And I'm telling the foundation for all of this. Collusion. Stealing the election meddling in it's all rooted right here in the belief that the Russians Act the DNC server. Now some stuff on that server ended up in the public domain. and. Crowd strike could not confirm how. That tells me they know how. If they're gonNA. Sit there and say under off. If they're going to sit there and deny, they're gonNA. No, no, no, no, no, we can't titus this to the Russians. While, they know how it happened. Let me refresh your memory on one other thing. And it's David transferred, speeds. Now I know. Some of you. Working at home, you want to download a movie or a gigantic file. From a server somewhere. And the speed of your download depends on how much you're willing to pay for it. You have your Internet service provider. And you may be buying fifty megabits now. You may be buying a hundred and twenty-five whatever. But, it's an economic decision. And you've made the decision lottery to pay a whole lot of money for it because I'm not that impatient if something takes two hours to download, that's what it takes. There are maximum speeds. That you can exfiltration data from a server Internet. The speeds. With which data the Democrat National Committee server are much faster than is possible over the Internet. This has also been released in classified testimony long before this we've known that the day that it did come off that server. Did Not come from an Internet hack because the data transferred speeds transfer speeds were so much faster than you can get. Over the Internet on less as Well they are. It the kind of transfer speeds. When you attack, attach jump, drive or thumb drive. To a computer and start downloading data from the hard to the thumb drive. That's lickety-split. You can't even approach that speed with an Internet connection, and that's the speed that data left the DNC servers. At So. That would tend to indicate. That, whatever happened in that server was an inside job at somebody went in there. Attach the thumb drive to one of the servers. Downloaded a bunch of data and send it off to wikileaks. That would mean either an employee of the DNC or somebody in the Democrat Party or A SPY! But. It was not the Russians and it was not an Internet hack. It was nothing that they lied through their teeth and told us it was. Going on now three and a half. Okay. Sound bite number five. The guy talks to slow. We're going to start with number six here Ken Starr. Last night with Laura Ingram. She said why is Obama wrong about the rule of law being at risk because the the the this, this has to do with its dumping. From the crowd strike story to the the idea here that Obama's out there. Claiming that, he doesn't know how somebody could be exonerated for perjury, and of course, Flynn was never charged with perjury. But. This crown strike business. The Russians meddled. It all started somewhere folks. And I believe it started with Obama. I believe it started the Obama. White House I believe Obama. And I'll explain this after I play these two soundbites, but let's listen to Ken Starr. because. Basically he's asking or are asking what did Obama do. And when did he do it the question? Why is Obama wrong? About the rule of law being at risk because the Department of Justice dropped criminal charges against, Flynn the motion to dismiss the General Flynn indictment I. Think is very very troubling for President Obama. The Emerges not chest. What did the president know? And when did he know it? I haven't asked the further question. What did the president do? And Win it, he do. And did he know that? The Department of Justice was being completely circumvented by guest director of the FBI Jim Thome E. League which changed clapper huge questions I'm GonNa, Answer. This is simple. This is a simple answer. But I got one more sound Bite Brit Hume. Who Lot of things are just nodding Brit Hume. It's good. It's great say. He was he was on with Bret Baier last night. and. He also reacting to Obama claiming the rule of law is at risk with the case against Flynn, based on interesting statement emerges at the very time when his name really for the first time in any real evidentiary way has come into the public that appears in the president. Heading encouraged the Justice Department the FBI not to tell Donald Trump about what they'd been looking into with. With regard to Flynn although they were happy to tell him about the preposterous p. tape, it was supposedly part of that von ago discredited dossier, so we have some more to learn about what President Obama may have done instead about all this. And whether he made directed the whole thing. We don't have much to learn just the courage to it at knowledge at all takes. Let me ask you. When you hear the question about whether Obama knew about the FBI targeting Flynn. You think about operation fast and furious. You know, but that was. That was Obama and Eric. Holder planting guns in American gun stores. Intending for them to be purchased and then given insulted drug lords in Mexico so that the people would be outraged. All my God we've it was a ploy to get the American people who agree with stricter gun control measures in. It blew up in their face, but the point is that happened. Did that happen with Obama knowing about it? What about Lois Lerner targeting conservative fundraising groups of the IRS, denying them tax exempt status. That happened. That Obama know about that. You want was James Komi. Exonerating Hillary Clinton from all of her crimes, involving her illegal server. and her emails. The F. B. I. was targeting Flynn with phony allegations lies and false interviews. You think. Komi woke up one day. I got an idea. Let's target Flint the point. Is All of these things happened? All of these targeted things happened to Republicans and Conservatives. They all happened during the Obama Administration. What are the odds? He didn't know about any of it. The very long if you ask me. They're now starting to ask. What did Obama know? When did he know what Obama do? And what did he do? It and Obama has stepped in it by starting to rip trump on this corona virus response. It's causing people to take a look it's it could be a big been political blunder. This brilliant guy has made here. Again if you're asking rush. Why are you spend so much time in this Russia's stuff? It's over it isn't. The people behind the thinking behind it. They object to behind. It is still operative. It's still going on. It's just transferred over now to the virus. Mine is an education project. Look at it that way. We'll be back in continuing moment. I'll tell you something else starting to. Red Flags up. You probably have already noticed this. All these blue state governors. That want to keep their states lockdown. It's purely political. But what are they? What are they depending on? Their depending on the red states, the red states that are opening up the red states going to get the economy kickstarted. The Red States are gonNA. Create capital and money transfer to pay. These people are stupid welfare costs, and whatever else they're using bleed this country dry while their populations hits, home doesn't work waits for the federal check to show up. And they sit around and they trash the supposedly reckless red states. I cannot tell you how this irritates me. The Red State got. In Georgia and any number of these people are doing the right thing. They're trying to get their people back to work for all of the right, commonsensical, human and humane reasons. To protect lives to protect livelihoods, the United States economy the state economy, and then you go to a blue state, and it's the exact opposite. They shut down and locked down, and they want to remain lockdown until July or August or whatever and nothing's going to open, and nothing is going to happen. Fully expect the Red States to sit there and essentially pay for it. I folks I'm going to tell you. These next four months. Are GonNa be a veritable war like we have not seen. The American left! The Democrat Party. Is going to do its best. To keep this economy shut down. To extend and expand that shut down. And Blow Up. Their own countries jobs just. To ensure that trump loses. But? Here's the thing about that. Let's let's let's. Do a little hypothetical. Let's say this continues. As it is. And let's say that more and more red states open up, and the economy in these states starts to return and revive the Blue States. Stay lockdown. These are populous places. New York Massachusetts California. So they stay lockdown down. All for the express purpose of canceling. Out. The increase created by the red states, the economic activity that will happen the red states going back to work the blue state governors are going to try to cancel it out by keeping their people at home. They're going to wreck the economy. Their objective is to wreck the economy and get rid of trump, so let's say that. Hard as it is to. Imagine. Let's say they succeed. Let's. Let's imagine they do this. They keep the economy in such bad shape. That? Trump is sent packing. What did they expect? When that's all over. Expect us to forget it. They expect all these red state people all well nice fair fight. You guys great to see you will see in the next election. Put all of it aside and try to all just get along again. What what do they expect is going to happen? With this effort if there's to ruin the US economy, do they think people are just going to sit by and let it happen? And, I'm telling you that they do. These are the same people at pass tax increases on the rich, and then ended up shocked that the rich find a way around it. So to be engaged these blue state governors and the entire Democrat Party, and by the way. We predicted this here. We predicted that it wouldn't be long before the Democrats would start blaming trump. For the rotten economy because of the way he's handled the virus. And right on schedule they're now calling. Trump Herbert Hoover. Have you noticed that Mr Snerdley? They're all ED markey. They're all over. Trump is herbert hoover. Herbert Hoover was a Republican president time of the Depression. There's no comparison and fortunately, because it a lack education this country nobody knows Herbert Hoover is. Particularly on the West. But what do they expect to happen? They expect us to just watch them. Try to literally destroy this country's economy. And do nothing about it. They expect us to just watch it when the election's over Wave Adam and say hey. Guys Nice try. What do they expect to happen here? They think they can ruin the economy. They think they can even try to ruin the economy and at the end of were all. Brothers and sisters and say okay. Let's now work together to heal. I I can't I can't believe that. That will work. But time will tell I mentioned earlier that Rand Paul got into it a little bit with Dr Jean. At this hearing today. This is the let's see what is the name of this committee. It's the Senate Health Committee. Well. It's the H. E. L. P. Committee Health Education Labor and pontificating I gotTA. Know what the name of it is doesn't matter here. Is this Dr Out? She has already testified. At the at the time, Rand Paul Speaks Dot GonNa found she has warned. The Senate opening too quickly could lead to needless suffering and death that kids should not be going back to school in the fall of a dire circumstances. Await us. If we don't follow Dr. Fao Cheese guidelines so now here's Rand Paul with a couple of soundbites, doctor dustup over children, returning to school, and the ducks couches infallibility with regard to going back to school. One thing that was left out of that discussion is. Mortality the mortality between zero and eighteen in the new. York data approach zero between eighteen and forty five, the mortality and New York was ten out of one hundred thousand. We need to observe with an open mind. What went on in Sweden with the kids kept going to school. The mortality per capita in Sweden is actually less than France less than Italy less than Spain less than Belgium less than the Netherlands about the same. Switzerland I don't think. Think any of us are certain when we do these modeling who've been more people wrong with modeling than right. We're opening up a lot of economies around the US and I hope that people who are predicting doom and gloom, and saying. Oh, we can't do this is going to be. His surge will admit that they were wrong. If there isn't a surge well, they not going to admit that they've been wrong yet in any of the modeling. Why would they admit they were wrong? There isn't a surge. That's doctor. Dr Paul. That's the thing about doomsayers. They're never wrong. That's the genius of being a doomsayer. You're never wrong. Here's how it works. doomsayer comes along and says do not open to quickly. There will be needless suffering and. Death. Hey we will make. Mistakenly often too soon. People will die. Could be upwards of one hundred and fifty thousand people who die if we often do soon. You do not do it. Listen to do not open to so we come along and. The death toll approaches have picked eight thousand. What does it doomsayer say? Doomsayer doesn't say it was wrong. The doomsayer says there's. D death total only approach eighteen thousand because I wanted everybody to behave in the proper way, and because people listen to me. The figure of one hundred fifty thousand deaths was leaked. This is how they do it. Pick a figure. Anything less credit themselves. For the number. Coming in low. At the same time they get away with doom and gloom. So Dr? Paul they never acknowledged they were wrong. Never never ever ain't gonNA. Admit they were wrong. Now here is. Dr Rand Paul speaking with Dr J.. On the subject of the infallibility of Dr J. in rural states, we never really reached any sort of pandemic levels in Kentucky and other states. We have less deaths in Kentucky than we have an an average flu season. It's not to say this isn't deadly, but really outside of New England. We've had a relatively benign course for this virus nationwide and I think the one size fits all that we're GONNA have a national strategy and nobody's going to go to school. School is kind of ridiculous so I think we have a little bit of humility in our whole leaf that we know what's best for the economy, and as much as I respect. You Doctor Fauci I. Don't think you're the end hall. We can listen to your advice, but there are people on the other side saying there's not going to be a surge and that we can safely open the economy a mistake if we don't open the schools in the fall survey. Respect your of course, everybody has to say that, but I don't think you to. Reimpose exactly right by the way. In his statistical data presentation here. If somebody charted this, you'd probably be amazed. If you color coded the areas of the country where? Vast. Majority of deaths have occurred. And they have a different color for areas that are way below that a you'd be surprised at how tiny the geographic area is. Where the majority of deaths of Covid nineteen of happened? You'd be flat out amazed. You'd be stupefied. You'd look at a map or attorney said what the hell have we been doing? Because the deaths corona virus are concentrated doctor. Dr Paul Senate here in New England. Tom In Michigan and the The Great Lakes in Chicago area, but most of it is. New York. New Jersey some Connecticut Tristate area there up. Here's Doctor Dr. Responding. To Rand Paul claiming that he'd knocked out of Saudi is not infallible Mr Chairman. Can I respond to that? Even they're are only thirty two seconds left I have never made myself out to be the end goal and only voice. This I'm a scientist, a physician and public health official I give advice according to the best scientific evidence, there are a number of other people come into that and give advice that are more related to the things that you spoke about the need to get the country back Oakland again and economically I. Don't give advice about economic. and. Other Public Health Weight respond to that. He doesn't give advice. About economic things. What. I? I'm confused. Because, he's warning reopening too quickly can lead to needless suffering and death. Don't do it. Mistake were not opening sports this fall, probably not going to school and he says that. He. Doesn't give advice about economic things. I'd like to know how he draws the line the separation between. What he's advocating here on the medical and scientific side. And the economic side of things is that there's no overlap. There's no. I don't. I don't give advice about economic things. I don't give advice abutting other than public, health. Does He. He really saying that his advice has no economic impact. See. What I mean folks this this? This hearing today has sold largely been a bunch of people running. C. Y. A. Operations. Is Making sure that whatever negative blowback there is on. This thing doesn't stick to them. This is not a profile. Encourage Day, if you. Ask Me I. Haven't seen the whole thing, but in what? Portions of this morning. So one more soundbite dibbled to a break, and we'll start what the phones after that this Senator Tim Scott. From South Carolina at the hearing just a minute, we didn't set out with the goal of preventing one hundred percent fatalities. That would be unrealistic. It is impossible and we didn't set out to keep quarantines in place until we found a safe and effective vaccine. That would take too long while I respect the need for caution, we are too often presented with a false dichotomies either saving our economy or saving lives. We've seen the goal posts around flatly in the curve move and I think that's unfortunate, because at the same time we're doing that. Businesses collapsed mental and physical health have declined. Depths of despair escalate education outcomes nosedive as we wait in our living room, spraying for some good news around therapies and around vaccines we set out to flatten the curve and I think we've done a pretty good job of that. Yeah, but we're now on the moving on a flattening the economy. They raises some good points here. We didn't set out to shut down to make sure nobody got sick to make sure nobody died. We didn't set out to keep quarantines in place until we've found day vaccine. That would take too long. Now we're moving the goalposts around flattening the curve. Because, while we do that, businesses have collapsed. And that's that's what I have seen driving around the country as I've been doing. Boarded up closed up. Shop is a human being behind. Every one of those stores are a family or A group of people investors owners people that took a flyer. People, it took a chance opening a business. Maybe it's a family owned business been there for decades. Who knows, but there are people behind everyone and I haven't gotten the impression that anybody involved in this gives a with about the people all of this statistics. All of this flattening the curve and mitigation policy to what end. We can't keep this country shutdown until nobody dies, or until nobody gets sick and isn't going to happen from. It's absurd, and that's what we're up against. We're actually in a battle with people who want more lively hoods destroyed. Who want more businesses destroyed? Who want more people in pain and suffering? And boy that pitches sitting at home, desperately waiting for a vaccine or therapy. Vaccine, that may never be discovered. Therapies are going to take months anyway. Okay, break time. Your phone calls are coming right up. When we get back, so they'll go anywhere. As we start on the phones going going to Boston. Still Shutdown. Boston is Alex and welcome. Sir Great to have you here with us. Hi Rush Gutless. You and we're all praying for your health. Thank you, thank you, sir very much. Look Russia is support president trump on voting for him in November, no matter what I am mad at him I furious. Because he will not seriously push back at the people who are trying to destroy him. You keep talking about pushback. You keep saying this is what pushback looks like. But the president's fairly pushing. He's pushing just one singer and we need them to use both hands. We need him to put his back into it and give you examples if you want them, but the bottom line is this rush. He's the most powerful man in the world. But he acts like he's just a guy with a pocket or twitter account. I love his tweets. I read is tweets I want him to keep tweeting. But we need more action. We need him to fight fire with fire. One. Are you hoping by now? He would have done that. He hasn't done and I. Don't don't infer an accusatory tone. I don't may not just what what do you want more than the tweets? PUSHBACK has not been satisfactory. No No, you're right Russia. Is the right question. My point is he hasn't declassified. He has prosecuted and now he's letting him. Burke lie about corona fires, and it's tearing the country apart. Yeah that last part I know a lot of people are concerned about. and. How do you? How do you battle foul CI and Cheap particularly, you're not going to dislodge him. He's got. Russia uses own. All right Dr. Cheat told sixty minutes in March. It's on video that face coverings don't work. He said he he didn't use these words, but essentially he said they're public healthier. and. Nobody's talking about that now. Nobody asked. The president plays clips during his press conferences, but he won't play that clip. We have we have more testing than we need right now? Rush. There are credible reports of testing sites closing because they don't have enough patience. But we're not talking about that. The lockdowns don't work. The viruses continued to spread despite the fact that every state has some kind of locked out. Only the economy stopped not the virus, but we don't talk about that. And and don't get me started. Rush on the fatality rate. There's viruses on par with the flu when you consider all of the uncounted infections, all of the. I'm glad I stuck. I'm glad I stuck with this because now. I know what you're real irritation is about. It's it's not trump's not pushing back on the Russian collusion stuff. You'd think that he's being run roughshod over by these. People Say you know what's happening now. So the committee was just adjourned Lamar Alexander and his dog. He was on from his Living Room in Tennessee justice journal the hearing and guess what both Fox CNN doesn't a two. Networks I have on what they're doing. They're reviewing doctor faustus testimony. That got panels of guests discussing what Dr Fauci said. What was it dr found she said. Doctor said no schools in the fall Georgia opening too soon. Not Enough testing, not enough data. We don't a sports I don't know I don't know. I think this is really. Good lead to needless suffering and death all this reopening too quickly, so we just had a three and a half hour hearing and both networks that I'm watching. Our highlighting what Dr Found, she said. What's missing. How about trump put together? A new task force in the White, house made up of people like Elon Musk. Want to open up. Made up of people like Brian Camp the governor of Georgia. Made up of other CEOS and business, people who want to open up enter describing how they've done it how they're gonNA. Do it how it can be done. Back to the phones. We go bill in Long Valley new. Jersey great to have you. Sir Hello. Arrest doing longtime listener since your ABC local to our show for many moons ago. That's longtime ago that thank you. My point on this is that if The information came about that. The data on the death was comparable to the flu in terms of age demographic, and that it was the over the people that were affected. That's exactly when this. Order, to go back to work should have occurred. It's too late now. Why why is it too late? Too late in terms of they've already missed the mark us. Scared people literally to death, and now wants to make a move if it had been done if the initial two weeks, which myself and most people agree on, you're dealing with something brand new that you didn't know once. He realized that the breakdown on death was comparable to other medical problems. The workforce was not the force that was affected. That is the. Time to get the working age population twenty to. Sixty back into the workforce. Sure. People might get sick, but they weren't going to be dying. You're the second caller in a row. Who has offered the viewpoint that the death rate the mortality rate is way exaggerated that it's not as deadly. You don't think as deadly as it is. Being neutral portrayed not. Not Setting. It's not what I'm saying is that it didn't affect? People from twenty to fifty. It affects people like most diseases and illnesses, people seventy five plus. So those people aren't in the workforce in general anyway. And I think that's true. Here's you go through this I'm wondering what what would be the result if every flu season. The news coverage of the arrival of each new flu strain was exactly like this. For Coronavirus. What if we did everything the same we quarantined? We shut down. We told people and can't go to work so if you're to do this or that and the other thing, warn people who get die. Of course you can't draw. Perfect analogy because we've got what people think vaccines. We got flu shots and we don't have something like that for this, but still if you covered the flu every season like this, you could shut down the country as easily as they've done here. Sure fewer people would die, but the. Collateral damage is staggering, absolutely staggering. Early prediction for twenty twenty four. The presidential election. They're going to say that actions taken today has reduced the death rate. To the flu, and that the older people will are not dying in is high numbers in four years, because of actions taken today. Of course the reason is people that might have died. For years from now, maybe were killed by the coronavirus this year. So you'RE GONNA. See Flu! Season's not be as dramatic and the next four five years, and they're gonNA. Take credit for it. As actions taken today, there's no. There's no question about that. There is no. That's exactly what this hearing was about today. Laying the groundwork for taking credit for caring. For, getting involved for being an eagle eye on this thing. No, you're. You're absolutely right. Flu Deaths. because. They're they're attaching. covid nineteen very much every death they can. Buy The health officials in various cities. And States and factor burkes is even admitted. That they're doing this. You die with covid nineteen. They're going to put on your desert. You died because of it. And so the number of people dying attributed to covert nineteenth, we skyrocketing meaning that people die from the flu in ensuing years is going to appear to be way down. If if that's all dealt with. Honestly at above Morton as well bill I. Appreciate the call. We move on Don in Norfolk Virginia. Welcome Sir great to have you here hello. Russia Omega Mega Dose and many prayers. You're wrong. Good Health! Thank you very much. Now you were talking earlier about the Democrat National Committee and if you don't mind to go back to that because. They had a problem within the DNC with Debbie Wasserman Schultz hired her own. It Guy, a Pakistani named Imran one. This is true. This is very very true. He's an in very involved player in all of this. more than just involved. His wife was caught, trying to leave the country with one hundred and seventy five thousand dollars in cash in a suitcase he himself was accused. I never did see the results of whether he even if he ever went to trial of stealing Info for many of the Kung now now now that got out of the country there scotfree. Oh, okay well that that's the yet that it's funny. How that so little reported on after it was done because it was huge. I mean she basically as far as I'm concerned because of the fact that you said the the download speed from the server was so high that it was done at the point of the server that. Lays, hands all over the it guy and that was Imron A1. Then it's just unbelievable how that just gets glossed over in the media and gloss over by all the Intel committees. I can't believe that they're not even most most people in the media don't even know who this guy is that you're talking about most most people listening you don't know who this guy is. or his wife or his brother, who they the Pakistanis or Louie Gohmert tried to make a case out of this and nobody was interested. even the committees that he is on. in in in the House But, they they're they're gone now. So whatever they did is is is into the into the ether. And it by the way that that that wasn't just Debbie Blabbermouth Schultz. Pelosi was up to her eyeballs with this. This operation as as well it. It leads to what was taken off that server. WHO DID IT and why? For what purpose? And the only thing that you need to really be concerned with as far as understanding the Russians didn't do it. The Russians did not hack the DNC server and sent. We've known that now. Because the people that examined, it said so they couldn't prove. The Russians were involved. That blows to Smithereens. The whole notion that the Russians meddled in the two thousand sixteen election. Because that was whoever you ask well what they do. What was the meddling? They hacked to Democrats server. Turns out they didn't. Democrats server. was more than likely an inside job, and for what reason and by whom? That's often to the ether. By. The Russians didn't do it. Therefore the Russians, didn't this. This whole thing has just been. As I say I'm outta ways to describe this. How outrageous and beyond the Pale, this whole thing is and we had somebody call earlier that trump's not pushing back on this. Fast enough grab sound bite number. Eight, here's what Rudy think's going to happen to. Rudy was on A. New York radio. Show Sunday. And was basically asked WH- how come trump every dragging their feet on dealing with the people that tried to run him out of town. Despite the fact that he got let off a couple of times, and I have no inside the summation I believe that attorney general bar were saving could really good case the one that comes pretty close to trees because what they did after he was elected I. Don't say that it's treason, but assess closer trees, and as you can get. They wanted to take out the lawfully elected president of the United States and they wanted to do it by I. Am many false affidavits using phony witnesses in other words? They wanted to do it by illegal means, so the bottom line is that rudy thinks that bar will indict Komi and we'll try. That is waiting for the right case. And I think they're all waiting for the right time to do this. Well, so everything is politicized. In Washington, this is going to be. Quick time out back with more in a moment. To make a point that I earlier illustrated. I said these blue state. Governors are keeping their state shutdown. and. They're demanding that the red states and are going back to work pay for them. Red State Governors like camp in Georgia, and elsewhere who are opening up. Florida Santa's. Trying to get businesses back up and running restaurants. You name it. These! Blue, guys sitting around keeping themselves lockdown. Crying. For because bed KP through, and they're demanding that the federal government which means. Tax Revenue from you. Be used to prop them up and support you know what I would if I lived in California. If I lived in the state of Washington. If I lived in New York. If I lived in Massachusetts. I would tell these stupid idiotic governors. I would say no property tax if I can't work. No tax of any kind of I can't work. If you're going to prevent me from working I'm not GonNa pay you a diamond taxes. How can I? But they're going to be out there. Demanding taxes collecting taxes, property taxes is. Preventing Their own citizens from working. This ball governor in Illinois this J. B. Pritzker Guy Classic illustration of what's gone wrong with every aspect of the Democrat Party liberal education. This guy just announced a new inept I. Don't know how new it is. Only two people in a boat. If you have a four hundred forty yacht on the two people can be on it. If you have a twelve foot? Only two people can be on it. You have a forty foot. Boston wailer. Only two people can be on it. On a boat. J. B. Pritzker governor of Illinois now Gavin newsom. This. To me, this is a purposeful and willful. Destruction. So I think these blue state governors have so many financial. They can't cover. Like the unfunded pension. Liabilities that they have. Just to name one thing. You California New York. These dates are in such bad fiscal condition even before the virus hits the. Governor's doing. These governors have seen the virus hit and to them. This is a once in a one hundred year opportunity. They are going to let their state crash and burn to where only a federal bailout can save them. Gavin NEWSOM. California Oregon Washington about Colorado and our legislative leaders meeting in California have joined together to ask the federal government for one trillion dollars. To protect. Our schools are public health and public safety services. Without Federal Support Says Governor Newsom states will be forced to make impossible decisions. They have been mismanaged. He's are blue states. They've been mismanaged. They have been run by a bunch of incompetence. They can't print money. They're out of it and they're looking at this arrival of the virus an opportunity. It's no wonder they WANNA crash. They figured that's the only way that they're going to ever be able to find any hope of being made whole coming up with money to fund their pension obligations, and all that is gigantic federal bailouts. And if he sending people back to work. If Governor Newsom opens the state let's people reopen businesses. That starts the California economy. We can't have that. We can't have one of these states economy. Start up and get percolating. Because that would create revenue would create. Something more than idol financial loss. They need idol. They need financial destruction. I think these blue state. Governors are doing this largely on purpose. They are destroying the economy of their states. In the belief or the hope? That they're going to get federal money to bail them out. And now he's called for one trillion dollars for California. Oregon Washington, Vada and Colorado I. Don't know if he means a trillion each. Trillion total. Lifetime to squeeze. Yes, I do here is Susan San. Antonio Texas it's great to have you, hello. Hello, crash I'M A retired infectious disease specialist and I just wanted to point out that the same career bureaucrats. I've been watching this unfold with Ouchi. The same career bureaucrats that have told us over the decades that he is brilliant, and you know perfect, and all this are the same ones that gave us. The information and the. On on more that he was a man of high integrity and character, and just couldn't be. You know questioned. I'm watching all this unfold and. These public health officials and these bloated bureaucracies for our public health have been completely blindsided. And I WANNA point out that Taiwan and Singapore were not blindsided. They saw this coming and I slammed into place. The protocols that everyone had developed during the SARS epidemic. Immediately because they don't trust the communist Chinese and knew better than to when they heard. That there was you know an epidemic occurring on. They knew to shut down. There flights in from there and to put into place immediately their protocols. That because we all learn from the experience in Toronto, during the SARS epidemic and put protocols into place for exactly this sort of thing. That could be implemented. They weren't and I'll tell you what there are a lot of people in these positions that should not be in them, because of pre demonstrated incompetence. In dealing with things like SARS, or AIDS or what anyway I appreciate the call Susan Sadly. I'm out of busy broadcast moments for this time. I look at these headlines AP as trump urges reopening thousands. Getting sick on the job found g warns of suffering and death of us. Open's too soon. Accidental poisonings from bleach. SPYKMAN MACARONI BY. What's happening out here? I mean it's predictable, but it's still. I mean Dr. Is still being talked about on all the networks. Are that stupid hearing and an hour ago. Forty five minutes ago and you would think the only thing that happened at the Senate hearing. Was Dr, testimony. That's all any network is talking about. Dr Fao. Say That we're going way too fast. States like Georgia getting way out ahead of their skis. We shouldn't be opening up now. No schools in the fall people are GonNa die GonNa be needless suffering if we keep opening up. A headline trump urges reopening thousands. Thousands getting sick. On the job. Another. Headline Fao g warns of Suffering and death. If US reopened soon. Accidental poisonings from bleach and other disinfectants spiked amid Kuroda, and that's a veiled attack on trump. As well trump slams corona virus models that predicted millions of deaths as having been way off. So the media fully invested in this economic collapse. Fully invested in it as are these blue state governors now I checked the email during the break. And some of you said well. You didn't tell us what you think. What these blue state governors are doing. I didn't I thought it was abundantly clear. Well. Let me let me on a little bit. In case. You're just you're just joining us. A governor newsom. A Colorado has demanded. Requested essentially a trillion dollar bailout. He has said without Federal Support California Oregon. WASHINGTON NEVADA COLORADO Will be forced to make impossible decisions. They can't survive. We can't survive. He's saying without a trillion dollars federal money. To protect our schools are public health in our public safety services, and what's obviously going on here is these states as blue states Democrats having run these states for who knows how many. Years there in horrible, fiscal and financial shape. They have unfunded pension liabilities. That had never be able to pay. They have spent money buying votes buying welfare by. They have just spent money that they've never ever going to see. Generated by economic activity, in taxes. And they see their. They see the arrival of the virus. As, a once in a lifetime, Opportunity. To have their states crash. With the virus, taking the blame for it happening. Instead of them and their predecessors and their policies, being the reason these states crash. So. That's why they want the economic slowdown to keep on. That's why these blue state governors are going to keep their economies locked down and shut down. They know their states. This is going to happen to them at some point. They want the virus getting blamed. Still, they will get a federal bailout at least have an easier shot at it. So. Let me tell you what I think. You're right. I didn't close the loop on this. If the look I know this is easy for me to say because I don't live in one of these states. I. Don't live in California. Oregon! Washington Nevada Colorado and many of you. But. If these people these governors. The Democrat Party if they are allowed. To crash their states economies. In pursuit of a federal bailout and if they get that bailout. They are not going to change. At all, they're gonNA. Keep coming up for bailouts. They're gonNA keep running their states into the ground. They're not gonNA learn a single thing I think. Look these these these governors. They hate trump. Anyway, they holders. The trump cannot lose any. Ground with these people. They hate everything that trump stands for. Cutting off their money supply. Let them go bankrupt. Maybe what they deserve it may be what's called for. It may be what's necessary. It's patently obvious what's happening. It's time to wrap up. It's time to get this country back up and running folks. We've been shut down long enough. Blue state governors want no part of it. People scratching their heads why? This is the reason why they want their state economies wiped out. With. The virus taking the blame for doing it, so they'll have a more valid claim to a federal bailout. Because they're going to need a federal bailout regardless. Of the virus can be blamed. That'd be sympathy for them, and there'll be compassion in be concern, and then prompt in the federal governor. Come along and bail them out. The, a big big mistake. But what a odds! What are the odds? Federal Government will never let us go bankrupt. But, if they get bailed out. There won't be a single lesson learned. To play an audio sound bite for you. This happened yesterday at the White House to the briefing. There is an info babe working at CBS. And her name is Ouija Jiang and she is a provocateur. She hates trump. And she purposely attempts to. Show trump up. She asks disrespectful questions. She asks Gotcha questions where CBS News. And trump finally hit back at her yesterday. And then walked out of his own press briefing. And now people are trump guy. You know what the pressures get into. Chrome can't handle it, they. It's and I want. I want to play this. Because these people have made no effort, understand who trump is and what makes him tick. and. By. Here's about forty three seconds. You've probably you may have seen this been watching Cable News, but here is many times that the US is doing far better than any other country when it comes to testing. Why does that matter? Why is this a global competition to you? If every day Americans are still losing their lives and we're still seeing more cases every day. Will they lose? You lives everywhere in the world, and maybe that's a question. You should ask China. Don't ask me has China that question okay. When you ask them that question, you may get a very unusual answer. Yes, behind you, please Sir why are you saying that to me? Specifically I'm telling you I'm not saying it's specifically to anybody I'm saying it anybody who s could nasty question like that right, so she's in there wearing a mask. She. took the mask off. so that everybody watching would know that she's Chai Khan and then she said Sir ways. You ask you that question of me. Why are you asking? Me? As, trump some kind of a racist. He's trying to portray him as a racist and a bigot by mentioning China. Now, but the the the lesson to be learned in this is not that because that's typical left-wing behavior. This babe tricalm. She's sitting there practicing identity politics. The trump, you should ask China for the answer to your. She gets personally offended. Thinking that trump is insulted her. These people can't get past the notion. This isn't about them. At any rate. So trump points out and he had a chart yesterday. Pointing out that we have more testing done than any other country in the world. And we've been ramping up our testing. We are running rings around the rest of the world. And she says why did gap matter? Why is this at global copy casing? T you? And that question. is so illuminating. It illustrates so much about how these people and why have no idea who donald trump is? Donald Trump. Since he's been talking politics on television for the last thirty years has been trying to warn everybody that we are in a lose lose. Set circumstances with China. That they're manipulating their currency that they are screwing us on trade balances. They're screwing us. On import export. They are not playing fairly in the realm of international trade. He's been on this for thirty years. It is a competition to him. The world is a gigantic competition. We are in competition with other nations. In competition to have the biggest baddest superpower military, we're in competition to have the biggest. Super Economy. We always have been. Why do you look at? This is a competition? Why is it so parkview to say there are so many more tests. W-. Maybe because you people have been ripping trump for incompetence since this all started. You've been ribbon in for the lack of ventilators. You been ribbon in for the lack of tests. You've been ripped him to shreds for the lack of this and the lack of that claiming the US isn't doing anything right because him. So he comes out in a press conference at points out that we're running rings around the world testing. Which FAO she and all these other people are saying is crucial to opening up. All these people. Who are encouraging the shutdown and we can't reopen till we can test everybody every day. WHAT AN ABSOLUTE CROCK! So trump responds to it or you think we don't having of Middle Ages okay. Watch this. Okay, you like you're in front of test. Watch this. Now, we lead the world and ventilators tests rang. You look at everything competition. Now, his point to her. You go ask China. Don't ask me that question. Go Ask China China started this. This is the China Wu Han virus. They started it. They kept facts and figures about it from the rest of the world for six weeks. They did divulge the transmissibility. They didn't denied that it could be transferred person to person. They denied how contagious it was. That's what he meant. Go Ask China. President. Why does it matter global competition? Everyday Americans everyday Americans are dying because of China. You'll twit not because of me. Go as China. They can't see that. They haven't the slightest. You know what it's not even that they don't have the ability to understand trump. He'll even care to. And they don't care to understand you. Who are trump's? Voters saw grab here. Sound bite number fifty s after that exchange. We put together a montage. Drive by media reacting to what had happened that he saw at his news conference today on top of the overt racism at the CBS White House correspondent. He saw an Asian American woman. And what did he think China this weird racist response to a CBS reporter? Way Zhang decided in such a leering, ugly nasty way. President doesn't like tough questions. It doesn't like being challenged by women. Reporters very was saying to. To her asked China, why would he do that? The president said to this Asian American go ask China. He's a racist. He's a disgusting racist. It is racist to look at an Asian American White House correspondent and say ask China okay so this woman asked him why did everything and copied teaching? Du To me to die, and he says local as China China's where the started China's the reason people are dying. And she takes she's. Being insulted for being tricalm. They all know this. Garbage they know none of this is true. They know trump's not a racist or bigot. They're using all of this. It's just classic. They know everything they're saying about trump and that montage, yes. He said it's gusting racist. They say. Anyway, let me take a brief break. We'll come back. We'll continue got your phone call. Still continue with salt. Don't go away. Gentlemen makes perfect sense that online cyber thieves are adapting their focus in the wake of the corona virus. Now the newest wave of phishing email attacks. And I do this text messages to. Focusing on people binge watching TV shows online during the stay at home time. They're creating bogus websites and phony messages posing netflix's for example. A sending out emails and text messages get the latest on Netflix's. Here's what's being added next. Fix this month or whatever? And you're you're you? Click on the link and you're supposedly taken to the website that fulfills the promise about information. And a Lotta people are falling for it. They're clicking on one of these links. That's one example of how online identity theft happens that case, they could actually plant malware on your computer have access to your contact address database for example or even If you have a password, protect attic and have access to that. You, if you get an email from somebody, don't know or a text and it's got a link to click on. You really can't be hurt by not clicking on it tapping on it. If, it's somebody that's genuine legitimate trying to reach. They'll get back to you after some time goes by. Now you you in this audience, an informed much of people you know just how costly and distracting identity theft can be. lifelock. Man has that your best defense? Being, a lifelock member gives you the benefit of their online monitoring systems that watch. For your online identity being used by somebody illegally. And then the notified, you can shut it down. Now no one company can prevent all of this, but there's nobody. But. Nobody does it like lifelock does. They called a text. They right. They alert you and if you need help. Fixing something they right there with the restoration team and the restoration team will not stop. Until whatever happened to you has been fixed. I mean all the way there are a lot of companies. Try to make you think they offer this service, but they don't. Sign up today. LIFELOCK DOT, com use my name when you do save twenty five percent off the first year. LIFELOCK DOT COM Promo. Code Rush Jack and Tampa. It's great to have you, Sir Hello. Hey! Jackson from Tampa I just wanted to say that. This whole Corentin business was just unnecessary, and it really is political chaos scandal. Probably the biggest one I've ever could ever imagine. Our. Immune system has specialized cells called. Plasma B cells that once nat the t helper cells. Kill the virus after infection they carry the genetic code from that virus, the complete genetic code to these plasma T. cells now you have pleasantly cells and you haven't memory. He sells the memory cells, or what store that genetic code for At least the duration of flu season, so we'll say eight eight to twelve months. Okay, those pipes be cell, start producing the antibodies, and once you're infected again. Then those antibodies actually shutdown that viruses. Necessary metabolic pathways, so you're you're an advocate. You're an advocate of herd immunity. Let people get this and let them spread the immunity to it and be done with it. Exactly right, that's the only true immunity. Now once enough people now that's called moral immunity when when when when individuals get infected, and they have the immunity that's immoral. Once enough of the population has unity, they create rather a barrier in no longer a healthy host viable host for that virus. So that's heard of unity. It's like building a wall around the elderly. How many deaths should be willing to tolerate to establish herd immunity? Well we have a vaccine for the flu and sixty two over sixty two. Now we don't. Know we don't. We don't have a vaccine for the flu. But we. We have a flu vaccine each year. No, we don't know. We do not. We do not have a flu vaccine. There isn't somewhere where you can go and get shot up and be guaranteed. You'RE NOT GONNA. Get the flu. We have flu shots. Which? May Work and they may not. In helping people avoid the every year's strain. Of the flu, there is not a flu vaccine. A polio vaccine you go, take it. You'RE NOT GONNA. Get Polio smallpox vaccine. Take it. You will not get smallpox. There is no such thing as the flu vaccine. So the question I've been a lot of people advocate hurt in unity. And it's basically what. Sweden. Switzerland get the two confused. Sweden tried, but you've got to be willing to accept. Culturally it as sight after able or willing willing to accept a certain number of depths. We're at over eighty thousand now. If you could be higher than that. Most people think Dr Fao. She said that numbers. Twenty, five Percent Law Dr Fao. She thanks for over one hundred thousand deaths. He didn't use that number, but he said he thinks eighty. Thousand is like by a factor of twenty five percents. are you welcome back rush, limbaugh and the EIB network executing assigned host duties flawlessly. Zero Mistakes America's Real Anchorman Meeting and surpassing all audience expectations. I have here A. Story at by the way I need to make an observation. The calls that Mr Snerdley has sometimes folks what happens on this show? When snugly thinks I'm not talking about things the right way he will send callers to me that will steer the program in a direction that Snerdley things, and it's obvious it's obvious I haven't been spending enough time on the conspiracy aspects of this because Snerdley had every call. Today has dealt with one. Aspect of the conspiracy theory part of this story. That, we're being lied to. Being, set up. I love it I. Love It, it's. You haven't given the which calls that came in. All I thank you for that. I knew that those would happen. We don't we don't want him. I have here a story. That is written by some guy named Tom Rogers editor at large at Newsweek. Does anybody read Newsweek anymore? I. It's just it's digital. Only now, right, you can't get. Their news newsstands, I guess the virus is shut newsstands down now. Anyway they. The headline of this clown's piece. Words matter and Joe. Biden needs to use his better. Tom Rogers editor at large for Newsweek, the founder of CNBC, all that Tom Rogers. This guy's ancient. That top. You got this founder a CNBC. Holy smokes. This guy got to be one hundred and ten. And, I know he's a i. mean died in the Wool Connie leftist. Okay Anyway, this guy his his his. Let me, give you a couple. Pull quotes. When Biden is talking with a teleprompter, he commands the situation much better than trump. But in his living room media appearances so far Biden stumbles. He fails to complete sentences. He searches for words he repeats the same points. He has difficulty hitting the right points. He doesn't take points to a deeper level. Making his comments seem overly general and superficial. Here's another another poke. I can't believe it's that Tom Rogers. Holy, anyway. If Biden's speaking does not improve. It will play into the most obvious critiques of his candidacy. The trump campaign will go after Biden as an establishment politician in the Washington swamp. Who therefore talks in political speak, or it'll characterize Biden this confused and therefore standing for nothing. Or the trump campaign will paint biden as to all to handle the job. And one more quote if Biden can't pick up his game. Capturing the hearts of those voters he needs at the margin is going to be extremely difficult, and instead he'll have to rely on the rationality of their minds, and recognizing him as a superior can I read this I could not believe it. Do you, think folks. Do. You think the pin. This is a question that we have asked over and over. Do you think the people? In Biden's campaign do not know. That he's got dementia. In his campaign like this guy. His campaign. Don't know that his cognitive skills or on the downside. Do. You think they they chalk. What Biden is up to just not being a good performer lately. My, this is this is. This even better than I dreamed a they don't. If this guy's writing this stuff seriously. He's got no idea that plugs are doing the best he can. He's got no idea to plug the nor years half the time. By the way have you heard plugs his latest defense and Tara Reid. He was on with George Stephanopoulos. Good Morning America, he said. Is Look at you. You said during the cavenaugh hearings and with balls. Ford was out there doing her to use it. Every woman should be believed. But you're saying turn not telling the truth. Plugs said, and I'm paraphrasing what I think. I think that. all these women need to be vetted by the media. To find out if they're telling the truth. And you, you haven't vetted. Terra made theresa and in the media. So when he is the one being accused. Women cannot be believed. And now the media have to come along. and investigate them now the other the other day. The New York Times said the DNC needs to investigate Bein and Tara Reid and now plugs is saying the media needs to do it. And get this guy writing a piece. That obviously doesn't think plugs hasn't ain't wrong with him. He just needs to step up his game. Here's Joe in Stockton California great to have you on the EIB network hello. Hello Russ megadose and hoping for a speedy recovery for you. Thank you, sir, are you? Are you part of the conspiracy? Cabal today just checking. There's no wrong answer. No, I don't believe that I believe in any conspiracy. What I I called for is I have a document that I found on the CDC website because I was trying to find out what the actual number of deaths for the. The flu is this year because I would think that if the number of deaths for covert is as high as they're saying that we would, you could add those two together, and they would be much higher than years previous, but I was not able to find these numbers for for the flu death, and I could've been looking in the wrong place, but what I did find was a document. Twenty ID zero one from the Council of State territory and territorial epidemiologists. And this document on the table it states that for other criteria for reporting a covid nineteen case that all you need is an autopsy finding inconsistent with pneumonia or respiratory distress. That's exactly right, if you. If you die with covid nineteen, chalking up you dying because of it. No. This does not even say state that you have to have covert nineteen. It just states that is in in an autopsy that they find the Monja or acute respiratory distress syndrome. It does not state that you have to have. Cova, nineteen for them to chalk it up to it. And it states that that is the. Case. That the death toll of eighty, thousand and and eighty, one, thousand, five, hundred seventy one now. You think that's inflated obviously. Well I. Don't know I was trying to find something that would show me whether it was or not. Because yes, I have a feeling that it is, but that doesn't mean. Let me just tell you what this happen. At the White House press briefing, some snarky reporter wearing a mask. was asking a new White House Presser Kaley, mcenaney. Why don't you have Dr Burks out here anymore? And why don't you have found out here anymore? And she said fallacy found she, but on television day more time than President has thought she's not denied any time and I just had a conversation with burks, because I heard Elizabeth Warren telling a bunch of lies in the hearing today and I wanted burks to set me straight here the numbers. Elizabeth Warren said during her time to testify, but committee hearing today that today along twenty five thousand new cases Corona virus reported. Katie. mcenaney went and asked burks about it. Burke sitting on a not even twenty thousand eight. Dr Are, Elizabeth more focus hottest then, said the number of new deaths today. Is over two thousand came we mcenaney center? Dr, said No. No, no, no, it's not even a thousand deaths yet today. So Elizabeth Warren was lying about the number of cases today, the number of deaths today, according to Dr Burks. I believe that. That, Elizabeth Warren would lie. And if she is, she's not alone. No she's not somebody had to those numbers. So if I understand it, you are doubtful that the death toll exclusive, and really because of Corona virus is as high as they're saying. Yes, I am doubtful. You have a wild guess as to what the number actually is. I do not, and you are doubtful because you think they have an agenda. In the more people dying there for the more dangerous, it is to venture outside their for the more likely, they'll be able to persuade people not to venture outside to stay home station down. Oh, I believe that there are some agendas at play here. Yes, and that has been prove it. It's been proven to me. I can't prove it to anyone else, but it's been proven to me just by the way this is all played out. just your common sense is telling you. This is exactly my instincts, which I don't believe that they want us to use our instinct. No they want you to believe Ouchi. Though exactly they want you to they. Don't even care if you believe burke anymore. They want you to believe Pouch -I. instinctually when I see Falcon on the news, I don't believe that he's telling the complete through about, but he's got an impeccable reputation for honor and integrity and honesty. It's right up there with Robert Muller's. Yes, so did Robert Muller Yeah. Oh. We found out about that, and so did the former FBI chief until we. There isn't a person. Who will in any way. Do Anything but lawn even when they're gonNA, disagree with him. They have to precipice. Preface it by. All the respect in the world for Dr Algae, he is the answer to every dream in health, but nobody nobody will go anywhere near. Being critical of Dr found she. Not even trump not even trump fear. That's because of fear. People fear that they don't understand something that felt she understand. But you have to follow your instincts in that case. Well true, but you wouldn't care if you would i. Openly ripped him, so he wouldn't care about that so. so if we did it, you know no big deal so because there are people like you and I who? Might be inclined to be little critical, but nobody in that task force will ever ever utter any less than laudatory words about Dr Algae that includes trump. I agree because their price to pay for it. The media would just jump on their throats and ram them silly. And they all know it and they're all saying it's not worth the hassle. Anyway I glad you call out there. Jobs take a brief timeout. My Friends of the right back on. Mr Snerdley ask a question. You occasionally visit twitter, facebook and see things that are. Exposes or critical of Dr Tsim. He's been in the public realm here since the eighties with AIDS and so forth. And you'll come across things about him. It really critical and raise and then the next day you're looking. They're gone. You've experienced that. So? They're sweeping this stuff. And anything they think is disruptive or or creditably critical. Of. The tech overlords sweeping away. You've seen this. Fascinating, Hey. Let me break up a myth here today. Used to be that when it comes to home security, you had to pay a lot to get a lot. Used to be true used to be expensive. But it's all wrong now. Simply safe. U. S. A. Dot. COM has proven his home security used to be really expensive. And one of the reasons is you need to have people come out and do a site survey, and then you buy it, and then they got to run wires to connect everything that takes people at a lot of wire and sometimes. Construction work. It was a costly enterprises, and and and it was a messy when. All those moves made you feel protected because it looked really big man. They're turn my home here. Putting us in. It's gotTa work. It's gotta be. It's not necessary. Here comes simplisafe. No wires. They don't make a big enough deal about this. In my humble opinion, taken the wires out of this makes all the difference. It removes the complexity. It removes the chances for things going bad. It certainly makes it easier to find a bad sensor when it does. Go Bad, and it makes it much easier to replace when that happens. And it's also much easier to install if you can put stick them on windows and doors. Then, you can install this if you can put a motion detector in. Hd Camera where you want it in your house. Then you can do it. simplisafe sirens, their cameras or twenty four seven monitoring. Reasonably priced. The monitoring for example used to be fifty bucks with a two year contract with simplisafe. It's fourteen, ninety nine a month and no contract sign. You can see all online at simplysafeusa.com. Your system that you buy what you want you by the sensors that you want you want motion detectors. If. You want hd cameras if you want. Sensors that. Are Breaking, glass. There's any number of. Things that you can choose, and you put them in, and they're they're in. They're up and running. You see all of it at their website simplysafeusa.com whatever you buy, they pre tested. They reconfigure it, so that would it shows up at your house. It's ready to install right out of the box which can happen in under? An hour, and they're throwing a free hd camera. With your system purchase when you buy this week. So, think about it seriously. If you've all, you can do an apartment or Condo, not just a standalone house, which could always do to small business. It's simply safe. U. S. A. DOT COM. All right if you're out of work and want to go back to work. Look I'm going to acknowledges a lot of people making more, not working. Because unemployment, or whatever the hell else, but if you want to go back to work. Are you the type that would let Dr Foul. She be the one to tell you you shouldn't. Because that's. That's what. That's what's being relied on here. I gotta take a break. Because we're out of time, but we're going to be back tomorrow. We always are I. Appreciate Your being here today, folks. I always do don't say it enough. But I mean. Look forward tomorrow, so you been?

president Democrat National Committee Russia DNC President Trump Democrat Party President Obama US Dr Rand Paul FBI flu Doctor Fauci Senate Adam Schiff Senate Committee Chairman Georgia
Threats Foreign and Domestic

The Asset

50:35 min | 3 months ago

Threats Foreign and Domestic

"The. Max Bergmann, here, for more of the asset podcast, please go to our patriarch page at www dot patriots dot com slash asset podcast. That's Pat R. E. N. dot com slash acid podcast. You'll hear the phone interviews with our roster experts and analysts. You'll also get more exclusive content from the acid team like our interview with the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff. Event reacting to Robert Morris testimony and upcoming episode following the mysterious trail of dead. Russians. Around the twenty sixteen election and a whole lot more. Don't miss out. Sign up today at www dot patriots dot com slash asset podcast. And so using information disinformation propaganda. And coopting American entities like the Republican. Party. The Russians in these. Advanced persistent threats have the mindset of the American voter. What can they do now? What they didn't do as far as we can tell twenty sixteen, they could direct we attack the American voting. Expert posted the asset today we are introducing you to a new special podcast called unconventional threats. Unconventional threat brings together exclusive interviews with newsmakers everything that can happen between now and inauguration day. When it's possible, we may still have chosen a president. Journalists, Peter Eisner, and longtime State Department official and friend of the asset podcast Jonathan. Langer will outlined all the possibilities including the use of the military uncounted ballots in one scenario where the House of Representatives Hicks the next president with each state getting just one vote no matter who wins the popular vote or Electoral College you hear exclusive interviews with notable such as former Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff in the ranking member of the foreign. Relations. Committee Senator Bob. Menendez. Based on hard reporting facts and constitutional law, this series of ten podcasts will prepare you for very possible unconventional threat and delineate the steps we can take to come together as a nation to ensure that everyone has the chance to vote their votes are counted in the counters respected to create our national choice for president for the next four years. Unconventional threat is a project of keeper republic and is produced by the same producers of the acid podcast district productive go to wherever you get your podcast and subscribe to unconventional threat or go to unconventional threat DOT COM to learn more. And now here's a special episode of unconventional breath. The United States has decades of experience in invested trillions of dollars to protect our country from the conventional threat of war but as we possibly the most consequential presidential election of our history. Are we prepared for an unconventional threat. How shocked are we at seventeen year olds with rifles decided they had to maintain order when no one else would the largest single state immigration rate and US history has divided families. He's Greenland dismantling the post office before is. and. This is the way fascist things. So I don't know how you could possibly using these balanced meal and balanced. We certainly have seen very active, very active efforts by the Russians to influence our election. In twenty twenty, the ruling from the State Supreme Court will allow Mellon, ballots postmarked by election day to be received and counted on the Friday after the election, which of course, could delay results will you commit to making sure that there is a peaceful transfer of power after the election? To See what happens. Welcome to unconventional threat I'm Jonathan Winer I'm Peter is unconventional. Threat is dedicated to three big principles every. American. With the right to vote should be able to do. So every ballot cast must become a vote counted and the voters choose president. The president does not choose who the voters we need to be prepared for any possibility as we go into the election period and we think it's our responsibility to highlight some of the issues that you should be thinking about this. First episode really sets the scene for why we're doing what we're doing. We've spoken to a broad array of very important people that have been focusing on these issues. What's the danger that we're facing these days? What are the things that we need to think about earlier this year we sat down with Congressman Jim McGovern, who is the chair of the House Committee on rules to share his thoughts on voter suppression. One of our nightmare scenarios is what happens if there's voter suppression? And in some states, legitimate voters. who had registered are prevented from voting under their names having been stricken from row the roles. Deliberate decisions to provide too few voting machines at a precinct. Or. Even something worse of some computer intrusion that wipes out their names and prevents them from voting. Do you think this could happen based on what you've seen as chairman of the house rules. Committee is a congressman and what steps you think can be done to stop it. Yes I. Think it can happen it has happened I mean voter suppression has been a tool that Republicans have used quite often over the years I tell people all the time that one of the most important offices you know that in in states is the secretary of state I mean it's not just senator member Congress or The Secretary of state has enormous power in a lot of states you have secretaries of state who get elected was primary goal is to suppress the vote to make it more difficult for people who live in urban areas where there's a large minority population to be able to vote they limit the number of places to vote they routinely drop people off the voter Rolls they they limit the hours that you can vote they're not Flexible. If there's a big line and you know the polls closed at seven or eight and urine line sometimes they say that's it. You can't. You can't vote. So there's all kinds of things that have gone we in the house. passed. An up date of the. Voting Rights Act to try to deal with some of that unfortunately, Senate has taken it up. But in the meantime we need to we need to focus on these secretary of state races. We also need to have a legal strategy in place and the Democratic National Committee and other organizations that Cabo voting rights and we need to raise money to be able to have a legal team in place on election day. So when he's irregularities occur that we are immediately going to court Republicans know. that. Based on the demographics in this country and based on the trends. Voting trends in this country. that. They don't have much of a future. The only way they can assure ensure future is to keep people from voting is to suppress the vote. That's their magic formula for victory. So it's a strategy it is a strategy it's a deliberate strategy and some of them have even. you know have even admitted it in Republican circles. You know it'd been pretty candidate about it. Another thing that I'm about as a nightmare scenario in August two, thousand nineteen. In a Republican Primary Mississippi. There's a video. was taken of somebody trying to vote and the man touches, the voting screen for one candidate and the machine registers it for his opponent the both Republicans in a primary you can see it go back and forth hits one button registered for the other. Mississippi voting. Officials. Later acknowledged this really happened. How much risks do we face from the possibility that are voting systems could be hacked Impairing the integrity of the results in trust even affecting who was elected president and what can we do about it but we known election day while we do face that risk I mean this is not a far-fetched not a fan of so it's not it's it's it's real and I mean look. We have We have tried on numerous occasions, in our appropriations process to put more money. Aside. To help states kind of deal with that kind of nightmare scenario to make sure that their election systems are protected that their elections have integrity but it's not just you know you have to worry about it I don't know who was responsible for that in Mississippi whether it's Republican operative unawed. But we have to worry about an opposing political party trying to fix the election we have to worry about foreign interference and we know that the Russians. and. The two thousand sixteen election had tried to hack into some of our our voting system. So I expected, they will do so again. So we need to be on alert and we need to provide the resources. So states can protect the system. Now we have a problem right now and that is Mitch McConnell who. Has embraced the title of the Grim Reaper. Who turned the Senate into a graveyard for good legislation We have a problem with getting him to do anything I think they feel if they do anything that they're conceding that basically trump's election. Was Illegitimate. And by the way I do think his election was illegitimate based on all the interference in the last election he he lost the election by with three million votes. But I, you know given the given what we read in the Mall report given what we've heard from our intelligence briefings I mean the the amount of interference in our election by the Russians, the disinformation campaigns I'm a had put leave that that affected several thousand votes in a handful of states I have no doubt about. We spoke with Asha run. GOP. Asha is a former FBI special agent. She specializes in counterintelligence investigations. Aisha's spoke with us about the pervasiveness and effectiveness of this information on social media. Okay well, we know the CIA cat track would Americans are doing. Can only attracting sir happening overseas lawfully. And they're supposed to minimize even unintended touching on American activities. So the Americans aren't identified FBI is got the authority to this is connor intelligence division, the part that. The organization you were part of. The CIA can't do it and the F. B.. I can't protect us what's there to protect us what's the? What's the way they should needs to be? Looked at to be understood. Waited this needs to be looked at to be understood is that these social media platforms financial interest in not taking? INAUTHENTIC account off their platform. Their value is based on the number of active users that they have, and if they were to accurately identify and remove all of the authentic accounts, then their value would fall. It is also not in their financial interest to remove disinformation, which is more has more vitality on on their platforms, which results in more cliques, which resulted more ad revenue. So basically, you you have a an industry right now that I put in the same. Category as tobacco or gun manufacturers where their bottom line is against what is interest in the interest of the public? So your options are either you rely on their self policing, which as I just mentioned is probably not going to result in much you rely on some kind of regulatory scheme but that requires a certain amount of technological savvy among legislators which I don't think we have right now I mean most of them didn't even know how facebook make money when Tucker I verse came in to testify or you create you know media literacy and civic you know engagement and awareness among the populace I mean I deleted facebook account three months ago at some point. You convince people or you make them aware that this addictive thing that they are engaging in that brings them. A lot of you know feelings of connectivity is actually damaging to democracy but I think those are basically the options Depending on, you know law enforcement or you know CIA to somehow like. Stop. It is not going to happen and it's partly why Russia Iran. China. All these people are so effective because they can use our open society and you know constitutional freedoms against. Social media disinformation is only one option in the toolkit of foreign adversaries who wished to disrupt our democracy the threats from hacking and interference to the November election from foreign governments are growing as we move closer to November a bipartisan Senate panel says Paul Manafort, the two thousand sixteen trump campaign chairman was in. Contact with a Russian operative during the two thousand sixteen campaign, we're you about Russia. This is the one nation on earth that has enough nuclear weapons pointed at us to wipe us off the face of the planet. And that government is working as we speak to Donald, trump reelected. We spoke with former secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Senator Bob Menendez and national security analyst, New York Times bestselling author Malcolm Naps about foreign interference in our elections. Here's Malcolm Nance. What can you conceive of them doing as we approach the election and Election Day itself? What can they do they create chaos real chaos because twenty sixteen was an information warfare attack. It's where they carried out what's called the Gerasimov doctor. and. That was the the Russian information warfare doctrine to change the mindset of foreign populations as Gerasimov. Policy documents stated to remove their own sovereignty to let the foreign population, surrender their sovereignty, and essentially welcome invasion without firing a shot or putting another personal on into that country soil, and so using information disinformation propaganda. and. coopting American entities like the Republican Party, the Russians in these. Advanced persistent threats have the mindset of the American voter. What can they do now? What they didn't do as far as we can tell twenty sixteen, they could directly attack the American voting system, which is I actually was criticized publicly by the Secretary of State, of Florida, and twenty sixteen when I said that the Russians had entered the Florida voting systems. They insisted that never happened. It was a lie I should be fired from MSNBC and it turns out we found out this year they directly hacked to counties and they can't attribute whether they changed anything but they could do that this year they do it for one of two purposes. One total mayhem in order to stoke an American civil war which is. Very viable or number two they could do it in order to subtly to just increase Donald Trump's chances of being reelected. But you know if you do number one, you get number two your head. So it is in their interest to create as much You know malignancy in the American democratic processes as possible here is Michael Chertoff, former Secretary of Homeland Security. Back. Before the election and again, it's not a tribute to the managerial expertise return administration. But here again, we talked about politicization and trust. even if what is delay the ballots is just the fact that they're under resource. And you know trying to cut back on overtime the fact that yours drumbeat coming out of the White House that mail ballots are nefarious. Suggests that Lee there's political motivation here, and again that erodes trust and you have to understand that for people who want to undermine democracy whether they're living in this country whether there's living in. Moscow. Keys not so much who wins ask can you get the public to basically is already tall fake because that's ultimately were afford tyrians. Count on like a Putin or or. That the public will not believe in voting and the rule of law and therefore don't trust the strong man who says to the public I know you want I will fight for you. This is a playbook that we have seen run literally seen in south. America. We've seen it in Asia wish in Europe and in some of these tactics unfolding here in the US. One of the things. That's interesting though is in two thousand sixteen when the Russians generated their own disinformation. It actually was not that effective. There weren't that many people who picked up on it and. You know either re tweeted or like. But when the Russians amplified Kinda miss on misstatements or full city that was generated by American. Dj. That actually did get track. And so I think with the Russians of learned is their best play. is to Americans come up with you know concocted conspiracy theories or misinformation, and then using the kind of the texture of that kind of content. The Russians can you know put it out there and repeat it and amplify. We asked Senator Bob Menendez what options we have to defend our country from foreign adversaries. First of all new, American people will have to choose do you want to even engage in information that foreign intelligence agency is supposedly offering in? Now? Do you want to accept that in the first instance that's with re without regards to whether or not? The information is true or fabricated as it may very well be you know I'm ten times wonder do the Russian say that let it be known that they quote unquote on. Hacking because then anything that they produce the supposedly the result of the hack, even though it may not be an original document or real document but now you've supposedly Haxhi you got something right so here's what we do. So I think that both for the press for voters for those involved in the public discourse whether or not. We you know we reject information that is coming from a source that we know is malign is is a critical question then as it relates to, you know, what do we do? I think that you know these efforts that we have been talking about both in preserving our electoral process in its infrastructure as well as in you know in the in the negative cyber efforts that are going to come across from abroad you know with Russia being the centerpiece of it is critical. It's interesting to see that we can't get the type of election security legislation that we think is critical to protect the nation that should not be a Democrat or Republican You know issue it should be. A red white and blue issue, and so one must only say if you're not willing to protect the very essence of our electoral process, then you must believe that there is a benefit and not doing. So I think there's a detriment did not doing. So in Dutch regardless of what the result is but there are some who obviously will not put their votes up necessary to protect the integrity of our elections and you must one can only say, well, you think there's some benefit in those outsiders playing a role. If creating chaos in America's the goal and sowing distrust among our fellow citizens is the strategy. Than Cyber attacks are very much tactic of choice for the malevolent foreign forces working against the best interests of our country and our people. Dick Clark has served our country under four different presidents including his role as special adviser on Cybersecurity to President George W Bush. And he's the author of numerous books including against all enemies and the fifth domain, Dick you have warned in your book the fifth domain. About various kinds of cyberattacks. Given what we went through in two thousand sixteen. I'm worried about what we might go through in two thousand and twenty I'm worried about the integrity of our voting systems. are take our databases whether People's votes could be hacked not just to interfere with them, but to change them. And whether we'd know if it happened. and. Then I worry about a bigger phenomenon. What Are we at risk of entire systems being shut down who foreign online activity. Is it paranoid a? Is it a fantasy to believe that somebody could actually take our election grit off make it impossible for people about that way? I'm asking that question because our constitution is. That when she said Election Day. Nobody is allowed to vote after that day doesn't matter what happens. So if you've been prevented from voting and election day because it was a hurricane. Katia was struck by lightning or because entire region of the country wasn't printed a vote. The votes have come in the absentee ballots or whatever. That's all you get zero and in fact. Any county person responsible certify the boats could say I can't certify the volt a secretary of state could I can't certify the votes for our state we don't have result in our state for this election. And their constitutional consequences of that, we can talk about those constitutional consequences. But right now one understand from you are these realistic threats or am I worrying about things that are just not possible well, let's let's take the election system and break it down. I think the election system as three components one you've got the campaigns and the parties. Are they any more secure than they were into any sixteen when John Podesta's emails or were hacked and the DNC was hacked and all of that. talk to ask that question are you talk to them? I'd rather not answer that but the the. The truth is that they're not much better off than they were four years ago. only one campaign on the democratic side that I know of has a full time. Chief Information Security Officer in other words, some cyber defence guy full-time professional cyber defence guy only one of the campaigns as far as I can tell. And the DNC I don't think is much better off either a little bit better. But look if the GRE wants to get into the DNC wants to get into any of these campaigns. It's a cakewalk. So that's the first of the you is I take it to the Russian intelligence service that did to us in two thousand Russian Military Intelligence Service, that did it to us and Tony Sixteen. These are the people who Bob Muller indicted right exactly by name individuals. So that's the first part of the three parts. The second part is the voter data lists the registries. The is your name on the voter list and does have your address and the right precinct because you know you cannot in this country, go to the wrong voter a precinct you'll the wrong fire station. And he can't vote. you have to go the right one they try to manipulate or they. They tried to get in any way to who voted data registration lists and almost all the states. and. If that sounds like an extreme statement, you can back that up with a lot of law. The facts love details. Democrats and Republicans are going to be fighting about all kinds of thinks democratically be trying to get votes Republicans may be trying to suppress votes in those states in fighting about election rules where it's different thing when a foreign country comes in intervenes and changed what happens in our country So I am focused on a particular edition to getting us to protect ourselves is A. As good. There'd be a disaster could there be a disaster Caribbean nightmare and is it realistic or is it a fantasy? This notion that the could go out and people could be prevented from voting and one state or in more stay look I think is very clear that you can take down parts of the power. That the director of National Intelligence Dan Coats at the last year testified before Congress that the Russians are in the control system for our power grid, not that they were data, but they are he painted the picture based on the seventeen US intelligence agencies report. that the Russians have infiltrated and the Chinese as well. Have infiltrated controls for things like the Power Grid and the natural gas pipeline system. Now, if you think about the pipelines if we've converted so much from coal to natural gas for power generation. That if you don't have. A natural gas getting to the Pike through the pipelines to the power plants, they can't generate electricity. There too vulnerable systems. And you know people used to say I was crazy when I said, you could bring down the electric grid through hacking and then the Russians did in Ukraine and they did it again in Ukraine and thou the federal government admits publicly that could happen The United States has also leaked officially out of the White House that well, we're in the Russian power grid too. Well if we're in the Russian power grid that must mean, you can take down power. So the answer to your question is yes a foreign country can do regional at least power blackouts at the time of its choosing, and if they chose to do that on election day I, know what the law is about the the do-overs but it would certainly cause a lot of. Chaos and distrust of the system, which is their goal attacks on our voting infrastructure are not limited to Russia PRISCILA MARUCCI is an expert on state sponsored cyber operations and Asia Pacific regional and cyber threats. She spoke with us about cyber attacks from China and North Korea their goals in relation to how they execute operations influence operation cyber operations are different because distrust in organizations distrust in government is not a a stop on the way to their goal, right So if we talk about would China conducted. Investigation into the Biden's in then strategically released the information. I would say I, don't think they're at that point yet. So China has been conducting successful cyber operations mood call the message against political campaigns since at least two, thousand eight if you remember both Senator McCain, and at the time, Senator Obama's campaigns were victimized by Chinese hackers. Unpacked with tell us a little more about how. Candidate Obama and Kennett McCain's campaigns were victimized center there. Campaign headquarters I believe it was via spearfishing were both essentially intruded upon right documents were stolen. That were. Internal Messaging or political documents belonging to the campaigns are the documents never turned up anywhere right and this is something that you'll see is common with Chinese operations. Right is the sensitive information that stolen doesn't make it out onto the so called dark web or in these sort of criminal marketplace's because the Chinese keep a much stronger hold on this type of data, and it's used right by the state for state and intelligence purposes and that's what happened in two, thousand eight and in successive presidential elections afterwards. We've been here before. Many people strongly believe that the result of this year's election will be delayed by days or weeks, but even in the hotly contested presidential election of two thousand when we waited thirty six days for a final result, our democracy prevailed with a peaceful transition of power we call Florida. Al Gore Column Standbys Standby CNN right now is moving. Our earlier declaration of Florida. Back to the. Too. Close to call column, the Vice President has recalled the governor and retracted his concession just moments ago I spoke with George W Bush, and congratulated him on becoming the forty third president of the United States. And I promise them that I wouldn't call him back. This time here are Senator Tim wirth and media executive Tom Rogers on what to expect and what we can do come are there particular states we should be looking at as to where this could play out and have we seen signs that people are planning to do it? Signed made very clear that this is more than a hypothetical possibility and more than just A. Bad News scenario that. Is Conceivable. But Unlikely is Donald Trump about ten days ago when asked about the mail-in ballots actually spoke about the fact that? Well, at some point, Congress makes the determination. Which Kinda let out of the bag that this was conscious strategic thinking that clearly had happened in front of him that he was aware of than often speaks of things that. Maybe. He's not supposed to disclose and it's in his Adam. He does and he blurted out in that instance. Since then. A number at times where he's talked about how this could go to the Supreme Court. This could go to Congress and made very clear that if it did go to Congress they have an advantage in the House of Representatives where under some scenario, this ultimately could end up and so it's become very clear. This is conscious thinking on the part of the trump campaign that this is a path they may well go down Senator Tim wirth sense at all levels have to be very patient and wait for the full count to come in. We know that the count will be different between the votes that are cast on election day those that are sent in by mail it's GonNa. Take a long time for those votes to be counted. That delay is room for a lot of mischief. During that two or three week period of time after November third. Citizens have to be patient, and that's part of the citizens firewall against Michigan. If we do not have a clear winner decided by the electoral. College. There is a danger to our democracy because of a little known and barely understood weapon all presidents have. Presidential emergency powers. We asked former senator Gary Hart to explain. How could secret? Emergency powers be used to create a dictatorship in the United States. Don't we have rule of law and judges in courts and Congress and lots of protections. How could this possibly happen? Well. That's the question and we don't know when I learned in April. That these secret bowers existed or are reported to have existed? I started canvassing friends of mine who at held senior. Government positions in various administrations and a surprising number of them replied to my inquiry that they knew nothing about these secret powers. That's question number one. How can one be Secretary of Defense? have in the White House, the ability of the president to suspend the constitution. And the Secretary of Defense doesn't know about that. The same is true of the Secretary of State. Even more hustling. Was the fact that I Contacted people I had known and served within Congress and other capacities. And asked them to tell me what they knew about the secret powers. and. Some of them refuse to respond. These are secrets wrapped in mystery. What is it so secret about these powers that people who know about them who have to know about them? REFUSED TO ACKNOWLEDGE KNOWING KNOWING ABOUT THEM How concerned should we be about the possibility of a dictator? In the white? House I I read a study that was done by political scientists twenty five or thirty years ago. which looked at the characteristics of a fascist dictator and of the fascist movement classical sense on the Italian Mussolini Fascism. rather than the particular form took place in Germany and he checked off the boxes and I looked at the boxes la boxes included things like attacking the press. Getting intelligence law enforcement under the control of executive. Many other of the elements that we've seen play out over the last few years. To what extent are you worried about essentially authoritarian rule in the United States being outcome which is country could be faced with in the future. Is that a crazy idea? Is it a realistic idea or something just can't assess right now? Well. Those who have studied the issue they were discussing. Have described. What they know about the secret powers as a blueprint or dictatorship if those powers include the suspension of Habeas Corpus. Peaceful Assembly. Authorized. Mass arrests. And warrantless searches and seizures and the list goes on. At. That's about as close to a dictatorship as you can get. So that's why we have to find out what these hours are and for those who defend them saying well, that's just a strong president. Well Good luck with that. Here again is Senator Tim wirth. Twelfth Amendment issues was. The first of the two major issues that our group keep our republic focused on the second. was to try to better understand. The vast emergency powers held by the President United States. Unknown to most Americans and certainly an also unknown do most members of Congress. President has a very large array of emergency powers. Originally some were granted to him at the time of the threat of a nuclear attack during the Eisenhower era and quite justifiably we had to figure out what would happen if so emergency powers were them packaged and and given to the present. Since then those emergency powers of expanded with the threats of biological warfare, chemical, warfare, terrorism, and most recently a pandemic. And the. Did now as a whole suite of powers. which had been granted to him, but about which the Congress knows almost nothing. There had been no votes in the United States. Congress. There have been no hearings in the United States Congress. These powers of slowly but surely equated to the president. Over many many years. And our concern is that these powers can be very dangerous if improperly used by a president. For example, president couldn't wait a habeas corpus. president can waive the constitutional provision protecting against STA searches and seizures. President can shut down the Internet. President. has a vast array of powers which can be used. Our worry was if these election if these powers are used a during at the counting of an election, they can skew the results of that election and So he tried to get after that. Understand it. We found that very few members of. Congress if any know anything about these at all. We thought it would be up to us to help to eliminate. These powers are concerns are very real indeed, and we think that the counting of the votes at the time of the Electoral College together a Canon Dame be skewed by the president and Kennedy be skewed by the emergency powers which he and the Attorney General May will. So, those are the two concerns of keep our republic. The counting the Electoral College Jack. And second the. emergency hours held by the president. I'm more than one occasion president trump has told us he will not commit to leaving the White House of his own volition. No matter who is the lawful next president of the United States. We're going to win four more years in the white out. Based on the way we were treated with probably entitled to another four after that. When Donald Trump jokes about twelve more years he's not joking it's kind of stunning that a president of the United States from the podium at the White House, is unwilling to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. The only way we're going to lose this election is if the election is rigged, remember that Senator Bob Menendez is the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Americans are free to disagree with the law, but they're not free to disobey him at the end of the day. It would be a constitutional crisis, but I would expect that even this Supreme Court if we had a majority of the appointees would find that as a a straw that broke the camel's back because a bridge too far, and of course the. Court has the power to call out the National Guard and the army to enforce its orders I can't imagine that that would be the case but you know that's when the essence of our democracy and our constitution would be tested Lawrence be Wilkerson is a retired United States army colonel who served as chief of staff United States Secretary of State. Powell. We asked a Wilkerson for his expert opinion and how the military might react if any precedent refused to leave office. But what you're telling me is that with all of the institutional integrity that we have. And all the tradition and build up is that you don't know after all your years services, the military or what happened if the military was faced with these kinds of conundrums. No, and I'm also very aware of what's happened to countries in history who formed empires and formed military's to protect those empires and if our speaking to you from strictly a historical point of view, I'd say watch out don't convince yourself it can't happen. You're using, it can HAP- yes. Yes. Exactly, what and what's The it? What is the that can happen in two thousand twenty let the military would throw its weight to what in effect would be a coup d'etat. So you think we should, as we look at two thousand twenty, not rule data out of out of the picture very sophisticated not looking like a coup d'etat. Yes, and do you think it's possible that if Donald trump loses the popular vote by millions of votes? And loses the Electoral College vote if it were to be counted that he might decide to stay anyway. That's one of the high severity lob ability. Being looked at and why high severity and why low probability verity because it destroys our republic You know we are at least. Possessed of a few democratic tendencies. We've destroyed a lot of them, but there are still a few one of them is the ballot box. Another is the rule of law as it is influential within a liberal democracy. we're rapidly tried to eat that one away eroded, kill it but there are a few aspects of this empire that could be called democratic with some validity. We'd take those out with that in one of the one of the things I I've felt for Dick Cheney for Dick Cheney said if we have another attack particularly, if it's low yield nuclear weapon or dirty bomb, we will lose our republic. Martial Law will be declared not just in the area where the munition went off but across the country and we will never get it back. We'll never get our republic back. Dick Cheney was right. I think and he said this is where I think he aired. Maybe not but I think he did I'm willing to do anything to prevent that outcome anything and so we went to torture. We went to lying you know. Some people some at times say that with the with the wild swings and and and impulsiveness of of president, they're always looking to somebody and they say, they use use the term, the adults in the room, right who a lot of whom have been have been cast aside but. Those of us who've watched the military over the last thirty years conduct diplomacy better sometimes than others. Say That maybe maybe a committee of high level military. Would be prepared and be ready for for extreme events to take place before they take place and maybe. Protect us in some ways that is that is that spurious? Well, that's if you look back on history all the way back to Athens Rome there is an element of that in almost every imperial Klein. That looks good at the time. It looks like it has bona feed as it looks like it really is the only course of action. It looks like it could be recovered from eventually and yet in most cases isn't. It isn't any of those things and once power is obtained in that sort away, and once it proves itself as Churchill said, the best form of government is a benevolent dictatorship. The problem is the transition. What we licked in two hundred some odd years is we've made transition after transition after transition without major chaos we've had some tough ones, but we have made the transition we're talking about now coming to a point where we may on the verge of destroying that last rubric that lasts piece of our democracy that still stands and allows for these peaceful transitions every four years or every eight years whatever it may be once you've done that. There's no going back and if if your initial experience with that verifies more or less, and the Tennessee probably would be to do just that that it is a better government. Then you cemented that kind of government probably for the foreseeable future. But where do you find the next tyrant and where you find the next benevolent dictator power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely ain't Kinda. Nice is in re Kisner said quipping it does it it it is the ultimate corrupter. These are deeply troubling times for all Americans. Republicans Democrats. Conservatives liberals. Everybody in between those on the fringes. We're all impacted by the scorch of the pandemic, the devastation, the economy, and the threat of domestic discord. It's easy and understandable for us to lose heart, we've had two, hundred, forty, four years of democracy and we're fortunate enough to be living at a moment in which we ourselves can make the choice. Does it matter enough to us to fight for our right to vote? Does it matter enough for us to stand up and say, this is our democracy and we're going to push ahead and make it work. We've asked former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt. For his thoughts people complained in the all time about the polarization that's in the country about. That they think you're behaving badly in the congress. Can't do anything in the people are only interested in themselves and they don't care about the country and on non non I get all that in clearly there's. Room. For saying all of that because all of that has been pressed but. I spent forty years in public service and. All. I did whenever I went back home or if I was in home in one of my city jobs. Is that went door to door. Door to door incisively. Hour after hour after hour that's all I did. And the reason I did that. was because I realized that if people didn't know me as a human being. And didn't believe that I cared about them. And even if they disagreed with me on most of the issues that I was trying to do what I thought was best for everybody. That I could not be reelected in I shouldn't be realized. I had to have that connection. With, the people. And I must tell you I've been to millions of doors. In those forty years even when I ran for president that's what I did I won New Hampshire went door to door. In My belief is that you know nobody's perfect. But. The vast majority of the American people are really good able. They want the right things for our country they want the right outcomes. They care about their community they care about their families they care about what they're doing. And They WanNa do the right things and they want leadership and they want honest good leadership. So that's always give me optimism about this. Has the most important thing. Subscribe to unconventional threat on your favorite PODCAST APP and sign up for breaking news from unconventional threat at unconventional threat dot com unconventional threat as a project of keep our republic and is produced by district productive unconventional threatens the creation of Jonathan Winer. Peter is ner and Paul Woodhall. Our executive producer is Peter Aubert. Our associate producer is mechanic chester keep our republicans discover. Highlight and help to prevent an array extraordinary threats to the integrity of the twenty twenty election and transition to learn more go to keep our Republic Dot Com Jonathan Winer Gary Hart Dick Gephardt and Tom. Rogers are members of keep our republic Tim Worth is co founder and member of keep our republic divine more podcasts from district productive go to district productive dot com.

president United States Congress Donald Trump Senator Bob Menendez White House Senator Tim wirth Michael Chertoff Russia Republican Party President George W Bush House of Representatives Senate Chairman Florida
Fast Money 05/08/20

CNBC's Fast Money

24:16 min | 9 months ago

Fast Money 05/08/20

"Fractional shares trading is now available for all fidelity customers on the FIDELITY MOBILE APP by US STOCKS. Ats Commission free based on. How much you want to spend. Instead of. By the share fractional share quantities can be entered up to three decimal places as long as the value of the order is at least one cent dollar as traits can be entered out to two decimal places. Sell orders are subject to an activity assessment fee from one cent to three cents per thousand dollars of principal fidelity brokerage services member. Nyse bath when he starts right now. I'm Melissa Tonight's trader lineup. Guy Dommie Tim Seymour. Brian Kelly and Win Technology Permits Jeff. Mills will be along coming up on fast hidden figures. The one thing missing from today's record jobs before that could have a huge impact on your money. Plus something just happened in China. That's a big bullish sign for Disney. What it is and how are traders are playing it and later get ready for the having? Sounds like a horror film. But it's not everything you need to know about the major event. That's about to take place in the cryptocurrency world. We start off tonight with that historic jobs report. More than twenty million people put out of work last month alone. The worst monthly loss on record the markets rallied anyway with the Dow ending higher nearly two percent and check this out the volatility index dropping below. Its one hundred day moving average for the first time since February so on a day when we find out the US economy just lost a mind blowing twenty and a half million jobs and unemployment skyrockets fifteen percent. You think the stock market would be down but it did it. So Guy Dummy. What do you make of that? One would think one would be myself absolutely I. It's definitely saw the move back to twenty ninety. We talked about that for while Kudos to Tim. Who's been used the word all the time steadfast and is believed that the Patriot is higher. And here we are. What do I make of it? Well I guess it is as simple as when liquidity is sloshing around you know. Don't fight these central banks but just caution you. It's it's good that we'd be talking about Disney later because the markets clearly in my favorite area of Disneyland which is fantasy land and at thirty three ninety three when the S. and P. Five hundred made an all time high. We were talking about twenty one and a half times multiple. That's assuming one hundred sixty dollars worth of earnings if you give the market one thirty now which is also fantasy. The markets actually more expensive today than it was at all time highs. I think it's just something to think about as we head into the weekend. Something seem to change about the rally that we saw today and yesterday as well Tim and that is the breadth of the of this rally. It wasn't just the five biggest tech stocks making their way. They did do quite nicely. Granted this week with technology Becoming positive for the year but we did see for instance the Russell up strongly today equal S. and P. Five hundred did a percent better than than regular old S. and P. Five hundred. So what do you make of that? Is that more positive? Perhaps it's absolutely more positive Brenton. Crude prices are up another five percent. So I mean you know. This isn't space mountain. Either though I mean I think you have a case here where you have still a very much. A chasm between the haves and the have nots of the covert Nineteen Stock Market. And then you kind of have main street versus did right or electric avenues. Eddy Grant said you have these these main street stocks are banks are industrials are obviously the direct hit on on Cove Nineteen Airlines cruise lines etc. But then you have what you what we've talked about. What are the stocks and ultimately? I do think you have a case here where we're starting to get a little bit more confidence as as some of the country reopened. I think we're going to see this in cycles and I think this is again partly just about market position. I still think there are a lot of equity shorts and under weights if you look at the position of the P Y for example is an. Etf It's still relatively near where it was at the bottom if you look at sentiment indicators in terms of the retail audience as opposed to the professional audience They are basically where they were at the lows of March in terms of their bearishness. And I do think that these are factors. Even though I don't think that would get away from me on the upside over the next two to three weeks. We need see the company opened up. And then I think some realities are gonNA take back in. But I don't see a mass run for the exits because in fact I still think a lot of people are not here. I think the other question to be as the jobs report that we saw this morning. Is that going to mark the worst of it? I don't know I mean. Is there going to be another way? Ahead for instance right and so. That's that's the biggest question out. There are looking at temporary or permanent job losses. And so I think that will go to what's going on in the stock market. The thing that you have in the stock market here is that the Federal Reserve and this is not the bachelor offender. But they've taken away any price discovery whatsoever so the stock market will increasingly get disconnected from the wheel economy. But I think going forward if we look at it and say okay you know in three months and six months. What's the point is GONNA be like? Does it permanently stay high at ten percent or twelve percents then you're gonNA have erosion of earnings? Then I think the stock market might start to think about okay. This is not the environment that we anticipated. I think it's GonNa be very hard for it to make new highs but I've been proven wrong before the same time. Maybe maybe we are catching a glimpse of what lies on the other side. Guy. It is a Friday show. I don't want be complete. Debbie Downer on a Friday. Got a very strong week for the markets Take a look at this charts or imagine it in your mind because you guys are at home. This was given to us in tweet it out by Dr Scott Gottlieb the former FDA commissioner on in this shows effectively the US daily positively rate so even though testing is becoming more widespread the positivity rate has gone down that. Actually things might be getting better. There were tests being given and there are fewer positive still. Isn't that a massively bullish? Optimistic signed for US guy. Yeah well if you if the only reason you believe the market is here is because of covert and things associated with then I guess the answer is yes and clearly. I think we're all wishing for the day where you know. This is a radically. Aided much like smallpox was for example. But I don't think we're that close so you know until we get a vaccine. It's very hard for me to get. You know all Giddy in terms of where we are in the health front but I understand what people are looking at. I also just want to say that. It's so unfortunate for all. Those people named Debbie out there. The Downer has to be associated with the back. End of that. It's Denise Downer or or or Donna Downer which is actually better if you think about it. But I digress. Dan Downer in honor. Dan Nathan Debbie Downer. I wonder why the W asssociation out. There doesn't contact. Us eight male We've got Jeff Mills. Thanks to technology a what you make of this week's Action Jeff which is very strong and broader than than past move higher. I'm Linda yes finally made it thankfully. I'll go back to what Tim said. And Look I've been pretty negative throughout this entire rally but it does seem like if you look at blows out of global equities flows into money market funds. Cfp positioning still pretty net. Sure so I don't know that the spark is necessarily there for a major and violent. Move Lower at this point. I think we got past the week of BIG TECH EARNINGS. That was particularly concentrated area of vulnerability in the market. So if there was a big disappointment that could have been the catalyst but again passed that so near term I think the pain trae may actually be higher but looking out passed a few weeks or maybe a month or so. I still think that we're going to be dealing with the economic fundamental issue. It seems like the data is just so bad. I mean we're going to be inventing new charts to try to capture the data that we're getting month over month. It's really just unbelievable I think. The market's having a hard time internalizing that data and figuring out what to do with it so by and large. It seems to be ignoring it and I think ultimately that's not going to be possible. I think about twenty twenty one earnings look like at one sixty five or one seventy dollars a share. Which is the forecast right now. That just seems way too high to me. So as those estimates start to come down the multiple that the market is going to have to carry to support markets where they are today or higher is just going to be too high. I think to sustain current levels and I also don't believe that we're gifted some high multiple just because interest rates are low. So we've taken a little bit of risk off the table for our clients just in anticipation of additional volatility in the coming months. Let's talk more about that. Stupendous Lee horrific data and specifically. Today's jobs report bringing Steve. Leeson secret to have you with us. we've been sort of throwing this around with the trails are already about the notion that this could be the worst in terms of job losses. Is that what? You're hearing from economists or should we be expecting another way because obviously the first waves were the lower paying jobs and are we now going to get into the cycle where we see the professionals the higher paying jobs and potentially a bigger hit to the economy? It's a definite possibility. Melissa you get your point where well if there's nobody to boss around. What do you need the boss for? It's possible this goes into say a white collar round of layoffs as well just as an example the unemployment rate for those with less than high school diploma is above twenty one percent for those with the bachelor degree or higher is just eight point four percent. You would think that would be more your managerial class. Those with college degrees so they have really been just affected a little bit by this but I just want to come back to one thing. Melissa this idea of the Fed put the Fed put is in a totally different places where it's ever been. The Fed put was always thought of well if the market goes down a lot the Fed lower interest rates and that lower interest fifth with you and help the stock market. The Fed put in this case. Is this coming corporate bond facility. The Fed has put on equities in the sense that if the Fed was in they're buying bonds and those bonds went out went went into default. The equity could be wiped out. Defend doesn't have to buy stocks here because effectively. The Fed is put a floor under stocks. And to me when I think about why this markets rallying it's that essentially that the equity won't be wiped out because the get won't go bad. That's a huge part of this rally in the market. It's extraordinary Steve to think that this is a blanket guarantee for corporate America and the Fed has not yet spent a single penny on it and yet here. We are in terms of results when it comes to the market as well as the equities market. But what happened Steve? With this blanket that guarantee what happens when the Fed is left holding the bag if this lasts longer. It's not just a short term. Liquidity crunch is not just the short term period of recession. And there's no snapback. Recovery things are more protracted and as you say companies do in fact see their equity wiped out. I just want to apologize if I made you think it's a blanket guarantee it's not a blanket guarantee there are some restrictions on. I believe it's it's four year debt. Lower it's not everybody. And it's obviously not all speculative grade death. They're not GONNA be out there buying that in but they will buy some especially the fallen angels on. I don't know what happens when the Fed if it should perhaps be ended up at an owner of these things. We don't haven't seen all the rules yet for this program. I thought it was going to be announced this week. I'm not sure why it wasn't. I'm almost certain it'll happen next week. And you're right about the powerful effect it's ad in the corporate bond market. You had companies like Boeing come to market all kinds of companies easy money which is a market. Yes seaworld Norwegian U. A. L. The list goes on and on and on here I think has a question actually started interrupt. You Steve as Steve. Thanks for sticking around. So there's been a lot of chatter lot written about potentially negative interest rates in the United States inside the Fed. I know you're not there. But you know people what. What are their views on potentially negative interest rates in the United States negative interest rates? Get Double dumbed down thumbs down from all of the people. I know what the Federal Reserve I think. There are so many things they would do before they went to negative interest rates that they haven't even thought about the things they would do before they go to negative interest rates. I think they're going. They're at least not right now. They may be forced there but it really gets back to the conversation. You had an apologies to Melissa Weis even brought me on the show. Which is this jobs market story? There is a debate out there right now and debate number one is this is over. This is the worst of it. I have some people even saying you may see positive employment in May based on their upbeat beliefs about what happens to the reopening. Got A communists enemy. Look there's another ten twelve fifteen million Americans who may lose their job and that's from a second wave of economic job losses. That could come first because restaurant shut down. The second wave is going to happen because like the restaurant. Suppliers didn't have the restaurants to supply. That's an economic way. Do you see that in these lousy jobs numbers if we get to a place where more is needed you could imagine the. Fed could increase these programs guy. You could imagine they could. They could make the rules easier than they are already. That would be all stuff that would come before. The Fed went negative. I believe Steve. Just to be clear. We have you on the show because we love speaking to. You have a great weekend. Yes Steve leads man. It sounds like a could be a market moving event when the Fed actually releases the rules by which they will follow their corporate bond buying program. Brian Kelly and I'm wondering if if there's two reasons why there might be pressure could be the rules in the release of the rules getting some more clarity on that but also when the Fed starts buying do you want to do you want to be. Should you be selling to the Fed? Basically so the short answer is yes. The answer the second question is yes. There is an awful lot of hedge fund money money that have bought a corporate bonds. That are just waiting to plug the fat. And while we're talking about here exactly what you brought up. There's a huge difference. Between liquidity and solvency liquidity. Get you over the Hump until the economy kid gets opened up again but if that economy isn't robust enough then you have a solvency issue and the Fed will be holding the bag now again. We can print as much money as possible. The principal go bar and just keep printing the mice on not terribly worried about it but I do think that the market has not priced in the potential insolvencies. We've got some breaking news here on jewel dom she's got the story dumb or it's so jewell labs the vaping giant is now taking other right down in essence. What's Happening Melissa? Gang jewel labs says and this is according to an internal memo provided to us by a spokesperson jewel. As basically saying that as of the end of December the company's private valuation according to its own books and models was roughly twenty billion dollars as of currently it is now being written down to roughly thirteen billion dollars or a fairly large write-down perhaps no surprise though Melissa guys because we've known that there's been a series of writedowns including from one of its biggest shareholders that is altria the US tobacco giant which even earlier this year took its own right down of its investment by about four. Some billion dollars so right now what this implies is that ultras investment of five percent of jewel is rough closely worth closer to that four five billion dollar range but again this is now jewel saying that this is what they're doing to reflect some of the issues happening right now and I will say this in in a statement. They said that they took this step. As they continue to reset the vapor category and build the company for the long term the valuation reflects the overall volatility in the public markets and our near-term updated projections. But still a big deal and other set of write here this time for Joel Melissa back over to you guys all right Dan. Thank you we go to Tim. Altria was your final trade yesterday. Tim This is the lagging effective private equity. Right you're kind of chasing your tail in terms evaluations. That's exactly what's happened to your I think Altria has priced this in. I think I'll got out there but I also think that the equity a the equity analyst team following altree understands its dynamic. The value in jail right now is as much the customer base and. I think that's something that ultra owns but Altri is heavily discounted. Everything's going on in vape in my view coming up. It's a small world after all. We'll tell you what just happened. In China the Disney shares soaring today later bitcoin breaking above a key level as crypto world. Years up for the great having became will break down everything you need to know about this big events. Fractional shares trading is now available for all fidelity customers on the FIDELITY MOBILE APP by US STOCKS. Ats Commission free based on. How much you want to spend. Instead of? By the share fractional share quantities can be entered up to three decimal places as long as the value of the order is at least one cent dollar-based traits can be entered to two decimal places. Sell orders are subject to an activity assessment from one cent to three cents per thousand dollars of principal fidelity brokerage services member. Nyse money popping today on news it will start to reopen some US stores starting next week. Meantime checkout here's a Disney jumping. A Shanghai Disneyland preps to reopen on Monday. Tickets sold out in just minutes. The park will operate at thirty percent capacity and have some safeguards in place. Visitors must wear a mask. At All Times. There will be temperature checks. No parades fireworks social distancing for the rides and no up close pictures with do with Mickey or any of the other characters and that's a huge dry no for lots of little kids and Jeff know thing or two about this to you like Disney though. Do you think this will give us a glimpse of what the park reopening could could mean? And look like yeah. I think it's one of the best data points that we have right now. The question if they open it will they come and I think this goes a long way to answering that question and speaking about my kids I would certainly rather drag them around Disneyworld at thirty percent capacity than when it's busting at the seams with people so this may even be more of an incentive for folks to want to go. I think so. Even if it's operating at thirty forty fifty percent at whatever capacity Disney decides to open the parks. I think the ticket demand will be there so I definitely think that this is a good sign. I mean thinking long term obviously Disney plus continues to shine a good sign long-term the companies able to innovate and disrupt itself and do it successfully. So I think that's a really good quality for the company longer term and this is my chart the week a couple of weeks ago. It's done well since then but it's still down twenty five percent for the year so I think the price is still reflecting some of the challenges that the companies likely to face in the coming quarters. But it's peaked above fifty day moving average. If we can hold that it looks like the next test is going to be around one thirty so I think you have some room here and I would want to own it. The question is is if thirty percent capacity becomes one hundred percent capacity guy and I know that's like a mind to like might be confusing but imagine if this is the new normal for Disney. Is that profitable. Does that make the Stock Work? They can sell. Those Drew Barrymore lightsabres for three times. The price they were selling them before then price works and I'm not trying to be cute here but no clearly not and listen. I don't think thirty percents could be the new norm. But you think we're ever going to be back in the near future near future. The next couple of years at what was one hundred percent I think not I Harken back to what rich Bernstein recently said. I think was rich. Bernstein. I also hearken back to this word on the street column in the Journal and talking about the Castro problems and I talk about Tom. Rogers with his sort of tepid view on where Disney is right now so let. Stocks had a great run post but remember still trades. Expensively an earnings were down I think sixty three percent year over year which just think about that for a second for a company like Disney. All right coming up bitcoin briefly breaking above ten thousand dollar. So where is it headed from? Here became his opening up his playbook and later calling crude comeback by options. Traders are fueling on best energy breakout. We've got the details when we come right back. Welcome back to pass money. We have. Bitcoin alert the cryptocurrency briefly breaking above ten thousand dollars earlier today for the first time since February and of course be K. We're counting down to the having at this point. Apparently we're having an issue with Brian. Kelly sound but of course part of the rise in Bitcoin this week was Paul Tudor Jones. A reportedly saying that he is investing in Bitcoin. Comparing it to gold in the nineteen seventies and of course that bitcoin having which hopefully will be able to talk to become a little bit more about Which is happening next week by the way squawk box will have an interview with legendary investor. Paul Tudor Jones on Monday. Eight thirty A. M. Eastern time to get his take on Bitcoin as well as his Robin Hood Foundation. That group is putting on virus relief. Telethon you can join host Tina fey virtual benefit program rise up New York City to support the city in the state hardest hit by the corona virus at airs. This Monday at seven PM Eastern time right here on CNBC. Paul Tudor Jones. The big headline here for Monday. I in the morning on Squawk box. Brian Kelly you back. So can you hear me there? You have it. So is it going to be one of these? Sell the news source of events because we know that bitcoin in past for past have risen. Maybe everybody knows that now well yes potentially could sell the news event. But that's what everybody's anticipating so I'm more inclined to go on the other side of that and say where's the pain train here. The pain trade is higher. We look back at the last couple of happenings. You saw a decline in the first thirty to sixty days after the after happening happened right but we didn't have an environment like we have to that all right. Let's do a quick final trade Jeff. Mel's so I still like some of the stay at home. Stocks and electronic arts. One of them. I think it might have some legs province of exploded the last couple of months. It has a great balance sheet. It's up quite a bit but still trading only eleven times trailing earnings. So I like it here. Ea chip stocks have been flying to and invidia certainly exploded back effectively now to all time highs backing that level back in mid February. I think you tap the breaks here again while they are involved in exciting parts of the chips base the multiple very inflated. And it's a difficult time to be saying it's it's time to push the fresh. Iq listen happy. Mother's Day to my wife all the moms out there and Mel for the first time ever happy. Mother's Day to you Nike. Thank you up next. Fractional shares trading is now available for fidelity customers on the FIDELITY MOBILE APP by US stocks and ETF's commission free based on. How much you WANNA spend instead of by the share fractional share quantities can be entered up to three decimal places as long as the value of the orders at least one cent dollar-based traits can be entered to two decimal places. Sell orders are subject to activity assessment fee from one cent to three cents per thousand dollars a principal fidelity brokerage services member NYSE SIPC.

Federal Reserve United States Disney Tim Brian Kelly Jeff Mills principal Steve Dan Nathan Debbie Downer Joel Melissa Paul Tudor Jones Tim Seymour Nyse China Melissa Tonight
Morning Joe 12/4/20

MSNBC Morning Joe

56:39 min | Last month

Morning Joe 12/4/20

"I'm trevor noah of the daily show with trevor noah which is also a podcast. Did you miss last night's episode catch up with the daily show with. Trevor noah is addition. It's everything you love about the daily show except for the dimples but we are working on technology to make an audio version of those two. You can listen to the podcast. Monday to friday mornings everywhere. Podcasts are available daily. Show with trevor noah is addition subscribe. Now nobody's done what we've done what i've done despite what's going on so i'm very disappointed. In my justice department lose my justice department that arrested them. It's not my justice department of people's justice department. Yeah just one of the ways. Things will be different forty seven days from now. It's definitely not his justice. Oh sell me ask him just curious so it's not going to be his justice system. It's not going to be his military. It's not gonna be like the bullets that he gets the. What was the other one willie before. I became president. Donald trump say my army was out of bulletins. Wasn't there out of ammunition. Yeah oh my god. It was monopoly or something and he talks about my generals. He loves talk about my generals right the generals and my military. But it's amazing. Isn't it to listen to. Joe biden radical to say something as conventional as the justice department does not belong to me. I mean that's it is a radical departure from the last four years but it's obviously what a president should say and it is in line with what republican presidents and democratic presidents have said for will our entire lifetime so it's nice to hear that it is good morning and welcome to morning. Joe it is. Friday december fourth along with joe willie and me we have. Nbc news capitol hill correspondent and host of way. Too early she never sleeps. Casey hud and for the second straight day. We'll get right into it the. Us has set a record for coronavirus deaths. The president's talking about lawsuits according to nbc news. More than twenty eight hundred people died yesterday from covid nineteen. The previous record came just a day earlier when country also saw the highest number of infections and hospitalizations. Want to stop there for a second. Because you know willie for for so long. The president would lie to the american people. I was on voters and say the only reason our numbers are higher. Here is because we take more tests of course talking about infections. One that doesn't lies of courses the numbers The number of deaths we were. We were struggling with a thousand deaths today and again. The president said this wasn't coming back in the fall. We're at nine eleven numbers. i mean. we're getting close to the same number of people who died on nine eleven dying yesterday from a pandemic that the president told us in january was just one person coming in from china told us a month later was just fifteen people and it was going away then promised us it would be a way in april when it gets warmer and then the clips. We show yesterday telling us an undermining his own advisers is cdc director. And also dr fauci by saying. It's not gonna come back in the fall. Let's put that number up yesterday from yesterday. This is how many people died of this disease. This pandemic that the president said and has been for nine months singers is going to go away and again these are at nine eleven numbers right and if you add up the number of americans who died two days ago and died yesterday. That's a higher number. Willie i think if my my additions right then. All of the american soldiers who have died in afghanistan over the past two decades. That's how many americans died of cova in just two days. That number sounds right to me. Just off the top of my head and that's a way to put it. My gosh puts it in some perspective. And i hate to add onto this darkness but dr fauci pointed out again. Yes straight an interview here on. Msnbc with andrew mitchell. He said we haven't even gotten to the seeding that took place during thanksgiving. This this is just. This is just us going into fall and early winter. We haven't seen when we will in a couple of weeks. The new cases that come with the thanksgiving gatherings we saw millions of people traveling across the country against the advice of the cdc. So we're just at the beginning of something that dr redfield the head of the cdc said may be the worst public health moment in the history of the country. Going through these next three months and as you just said we will be going through these next couple of months with donald trump as president. There's only so much. Joe biden can do at this point as he's on the sideline so we have a president who's obsessed with overturning an election and not this tragedy right in front of us and if you think about that he's got this. These pitiful attempts across the country with rudy giuliani. Like say no more right there and we have record highs in deaths because the president won't daily tell people to wear masks. He won't daily do a briefing with dr fauci and top doctors to explain to people that were not there yet with the vaccines and in fact when he talks about vaccines he talks about how he somehow created them. An it's somehow is the trump vaccine. No it's the trump virus and this presidency continues to kill people. And i don't know i don't know how to get through to people who follow donald trump to the end but look at the people who are dying. They like trump have not taken this virus seriously. Many of them have been impacted or victimized by all those who haven't taken this virus seriously. It's unbelievable these are numbers that no don't need to be happening and it would've been hard but it was simple what needed to be done and this president couldn't get it done. Couldn't get it done. Willie though you talk about how dr fauci warning that the worst is yet to calm talking about rightly about how the president never took this virus seriously. There are a lot of dead americans because of that. There are a lot of governors republican governors. Who have acted like total idiots by proudly saying that they didn't believe that masks should be worn local republican officials who have acted like idiots. But if you saw the new york post today my god the progressive leaders we talked about gavin newsom. And what he did you go down the list. Though denver mayor michael hancock telling citizens not to travel for the holidays in boarding a plane to mississippi not an hour later austin texas mayor steve adler recording video telling people to stay home and filming nick from time. Share in kabo you have. Diane feinstein caught maskless at at the capital and the airport. You have a governor cuomo. Of course planning the family thanksgiving. That would've broken his own rules and then and then backing down. You have the mayor of san francisco. Go you know this must be. What's that restaurant in san francisco that they all go to win this covid. When this this cova pandemic breaks what's it called alexan- line three points frizz laundry right to invite the entire morning. Joe audience one point five. Maybe about four million. Tell all cram into france laundry when this is over because it must be a hell of a restaurant because leaders in california keep risking their lives and keep risking. The lives of their family. Members can the lives of everybody around them to go to this restaurant. They must have really good mac and cheese. Because i i've never really just think about how corrosive that is when we have idiots in the republican party that are pretending that this is not real and we have hypocrites who are these progressive leaders acting like total idiots a and about how corrosive that is where say no. You can't go to a restaurant no you can't visit your family members. No you can't do. Oh but oh we're going to go with lobbyists and we're gonna eat at the fanciest restaurant in san francisco. What are these people. thinking like. You said an underlining it because as dr fauci said we haven't even gotten to the worst part of this yet. Well we're i saw. We're not that. Mika call french laundry because they're not letting you or me in that place i i assume that's gotta be you. It's gotta be a phone call. Yeah it's basic leadership and it's hypocrisy and it's all the things you just said if it's so dire and so important and it is that we can't see our family members thanksgiving and we didn't if it so dire and so important that you can't see a dying loved one or you can't have a proper funeral for somebody who dies from corona virus because it's too risky then it is and you are the leader and you should live the things you're saying and we've seen tons and tons of hypocrisy again and again from republicans but also yet from democrats. We mentioned dr. Anthony vouching minute ago. Joe biden actually announce that dr fauci will in fact stay on as director of the national institute of allergy and infectious diseases also will serve as chief medical advisor. The news came after faucher formally met with the president-elect's transition team for the first time yesterday during zoom meeting to discuss kobe. Nineteen related topics. President-elect also has tapped a veteran of the obama administration to serve as america's top dr the washington post reports former. us surgeon general vivek murthy has been asked to reprise the role in expanded version in the new administration is expected to be part of a team to help lead the nation's response to the coronavirus crisis also president elect joe biden. Says he will ask americans to wear masks for the first one hundred days after he takes office the first day i'm inaugurated to say i'm going to ask the public for one hundred days to mask just one hundred days to mask forever one hundred days and i think we'll see a significant reduction if kerr that everything that occurs with vaccinations and masking to drive down the numbers considerably. Do you plan to get vaccinated before inauguration day and we'll you do it in public the way that presidents obama bush and clinton have suggested they're willing. I'd be happy to do that. When dr fauci says we have a vaccine. That is safe. That's the moment of which i will stand before the public and see that look part of what has to happen. Jake and you know as well as i do. People have lost faith in the ability of the vaccine to work already. The numbers are really staggering. Low so i just wonder One hundred days of masking across the board americans being required to wear masks just how quickly the numbers will change. And i wonder if some of the friends you've been talking to joe and some of the republicans who've been standing by as stooges to president trump not stepping up for the american people and their safety and quite frankly stepping up against the president stupidity and cruelty not being a leader on this corona virus. I wonder how quickly in the numbers will change. And i wonder if your friends and those republicans will actually admit that actually doing basic things to mitigate this virus would have changed the course of this pandemic should should ask them that way. Yeah ask them about the number chain. There's always her. I don't have to be careful. Cannot let me ask them okay. You just all dial really. What do you think they should ask my friends. Are you think. I should let me ask my friends in that town. Nica calls the restaurant. You call the friends. Let's just do that. Honestly on his late we get your house stupid. Can you be at this point. If you just actually read about it. Okay learn about it. You're right. How stupid can you be to be so arrogant and should be so flip about this when we have numbers like this. How crazy are you will been asking that question for quite some time again. I think we'll i think i'll be a little polite. I in hopes of picked up the phone or go down with me. Hey i actually but like people in this country to stay alive. Unlike some of your friends and republicans in the senate and in the house and president trump who's presidency is killing people by the tens of thousands. We agree though that would just dug that white friends that we're really call your friends. Hey listen how about alabama. They sure looked good against honorable. Sort with that was a president wanted. You arrested joe. How's your family. And they still stood by him. I'm just saying could. Could you require that. He doesn't kill people. How how's your family doing. How's your mom tellers at high right. And then i'll say hey you can. We're met. maybe we'll work getting in that way. I don't know. I'll tell you and speak at work and things in right now. I think now it'd be a great time to work in some really smart people. Let's bring in right now. Ask dr paul member of fdic advisory committee on vaccines. Dr paul off. And he is also practicing physician in the director of the vaccine education center at children's hospital philadelphia also with us infectious diseases physician and medical director of the special pathogens unit. At the boston university. School of medicine dr. He'd been delia. She is an nbc news and msnbc contributor. Been talking about friends. I'll tell you a doctor often. I need to start with you with family members. I've got a son who's a diabetic. Got another son. Who's very healthy. A big guy but he's got some whopper respiratory problems has got asmaa had pneumonia last year for five days just out of nowhere when we looked. Yeah they've been camping a bubble. And i've been saying. Hey these vaccines are coming along. Really excited for you guys and said we think we're going to wait a little while. Dad says i don't think they are. How can we make sure that that. Americans and i've heard this skepticism. Not just for my own kids. I've heard it from so many americans because of all of the garbage that they pick up on social media. How how do we convince. Americans especially older americans and those who have underlying conditions that when they have vaccine. And if dr fauci says it safe that they can trust the word of that and understand not taking. The vaccine is far more risky than taking it. I think that most people are concerned about safety. I mean reasonably they argue. This messenger are a vaccine. This is the first ever. Messenger are vaccine. So how do we know it's safe. It hasn't been tested. In large numbers of people it will have been tested. Tens of thousands of people before it's approved and put out there which means it. We can save with confidence that doesn't have a relatively uncommon severe side effect but twenty thousand people isn't twenty million people and i think people could reasonably argue with. It doesn't have a rare serious side of with the way this is practically. Is that the one group that i hear roof is defined as defined by the cd safe. We'll be long term care. Facility residents and staff and essential health care workers which is another twenty one million people which means by the time you get to just other essential workers must less those who over sixty five those with a high risk medical condition. Your this vaccine is already going to have been in tens of millions of people. So you're going to have a huge safety portfolio were you can say hopefully doesn't even cause a rare serious side of that. It appears to work and it safe and then with those kinds of that kind of information those kinds of data. i think people feel more comfortable. Dr padilla i'm sure you as a physician have been encouraged by some of the things you've heard coming out of the biden transition team including yesterday in that interview. We talked about mask wearing for the first one hundred days of his term. But we've got a long way to go and we've got difficult days as many people including dr fauci have said until we get to a biden administration setting new records of deaths cases and hospitalizations for the last couple of days. And other one yesterday. So where do you think we are right now. In without joe biden in the white house. What mitigation efforts should be taken right now morning. Really really glad to hear dr office. Talk about the workaround around the vaccines because really it. Is this committee and the work that the independent advisor committee that we they'll be putting in. That's to part of my mind at ease to look at the data from pfizer and madeira The worrisome thing about this willies. Exactly what dr fauci said is that we're not at the peak where at the incline and we know that the correct because our test positivity rates have gone up as a nation in the last month that means that we're missing chains of transmission and over a hundred thousand people hospitalized. We're losing to americans a minute disease. The human mind boggles because one death. You can understand the suffering of that you know when it becomes. Thousands becomes hundreds of thousands of becomes extract at an week. Don't understand abstract suffering as much the the things that we can do. And i say that is because i want to sort of driving the gravity but there are things that we as individuals can do. it is the masking and there was a yale. Study again this week. That showed that mask. Mandates can drop mortality Mortality of its state by about twelve percent in isolation. Even before you do stay at home orders or anything else you can make sure you don't travel winter if you don't have to and then due to do that. Three seized avoid the three cs close spaces so that you know you don't get into situations that are indoors or have no ventilation crowds. Don't be around people who are not part of your household if you can help it particularly without basques and And close contact. Don't be in close contact with people who are not in your household without a mascot and those are things that we can do. What are what are leadership can do. Well one thing is. I really hope. Our government passes that kobe a bill. That will all been waiting for because President-elect biden yesterday said is look states are still looking for assistance. They're not just looking for guidance in a national standard on how to approach this but they're looking for funding because of the increase in hospitalizations and funding to help distribution of vaccines casey. I know you're going to be covering for us in a minute. Some glimmers of hope on that front with covert relief but a question for dr off. At first case. Yeah no for sure. And dr audit you were at the children's hospital of philadelphia which is just one of the country's preeminent institutions and we were lucky enough to benefit from your expertise when i was growing up and when joe was talking about his kids the conversations. They're having about vaccines. I've got a lot of friends in the text messages. That i'm getting from people are around what to do if you're pregnant if you're thinking about getting pregnant and if you have really little kids and i'm hoping you could just fill us in especially when you're concerned if you are pregnant you concerned about the health of the baby as well as your own health. What concerns do you have about pregnant women getting this vaccine if any should they go out and get this are you. Confident will be safe for them and their baby and then what should people do about their children. What kind of data do we need before. We'll know that it's safe especially for infants and toddlers to get this vaccine to parts of that question So first of all. Although pregnant women have been excluded from these trials. These huge trials by five during the fact remains. Is that whenever you do. Huge trials like that pregnant variably are included because people sign up for the trial and didn't know they were pregnant. Then get the vaccine identified out. They were pregnant. Were there already are sunday to on what happens when pregnant with me. Get this vaccine. That's also going to happen when the vaccine starts to roll out and is given to essential health care workers. Who didn't know they were pregnant. Now there's an cdc has a program called v. safe where they're going to be filing up those women for to look for two things one is is has affected them and to Has it affected their child months born so i think those data will start to roll out very quickly. I think in the in the next few months and then we'll know whether or not there's any problem with with with women who are pregnant getting acceded either for them or for their trial. In terms of children children had not been a priority for this vaccine for the simple reason that people less than twenty one although they make up twenty six percent of the population make up zero point zero eight percent of the desk. Let's compared to say nursing hunger forty percent of that. That's the good news. I think early this coming year at least is going to start doing. A prospective placebo controlled trials in children. Working our way down from eighteen to sixteen to twelve and then lower do the kind of dose ranging trials so we can see what the right doses recovery i think by the middle of next year. We will have four more date in children. So we'll know a whether how we can best immunize because they need to be is. I mean the fact that matters children can die. This as many children died of this virus ours has died of influenza. This year and children can suffer other longer term problems so called multi planetary disease. Which i think. We'll get those eight. And i do think children do need to okay. This is kind of basic dr. But i'm just looking at for example this washington post piece from a couple of days ago Where the secretary. State has invited hundreds of people to a series of indoor parties. It's called diplomacy at home. Which i would rather it be called. Come on over and get killed but here is the secretary state taking pictures with a woman. It looks really scared. They're very close. This lineup of parties has happening over the next three weeks while the us government is saying don't have parties. What are we supposed to think of this. Hundreds and hundreds of people are being invite one of them has nine hundred people coming to it. Invited what are we supposed to think well kremlin public health perspective. It breaks all three of those. We just talked about right. It's close contact. It's crowded people and it is indoors that which is what we're trying to avoid. It is on par with what we've seen restriction whether is one set of rules for the public and then you know our own government. Our own government Downplays or bounce. You know against the public roles at their own. Kobe task force puts into place. This is the time if there was ever a time. This is the time for us to unite as a country to recognize that. If we put everything we have into the next couple of months. The light is at the end of the tunnel. You know in just disappointing to see that i would. I hope to see what the next administration is what they do in action as is exactly what they say in words. Dr the diliah. And dr paul off. Thank you both so much. We really do appreciate it. Casey I i don't i don't want to sound so optimistic. That meek is going to strike me after this segment but maybe starting to by the way. Mingka's that i'm tired of being nice. And alex scott said when she ever nice about anyway maybe breaking out on capitol hill or at least. Let's just say the cold war maybe thawing just a little bit yesterday. Nancy pelosi and mitch mcconnell got together and they're at least talking as we can start by talking to each other and talking about helping the american people with a covert relief. Bill what can you tell us well. First of all i can tell i think is very nice. She's definitely the nicest one on the i. Rhys i mean it's seems obvious me i'm but no you're right about the thought and that's i think a really good way to put it because there had been Basically a cold war between frankly pelosi and donald trump that also had drawn mitch mcconnell into it as well but now all of a sudden everyone's saying okay. Actually we want to get on board. We want to get on the same page. We want to get something done before the end of the year. I think that's partly because things have gotten so dire out in the country you know. The real economy is is not where the stock market is. People are really hurting. And that's what everyone is hearing from their constituents. I think it's also potentially a sign of things to come. I mean this came about because there was a bipartisan group of senators. Who got together and said our leaderships failed us. We want to figure out if there's something we can do to pull people together and there was a press conference earlier this week with all of those names joe that you have listed off several times since joe biden's won this election. People like mitt. Romney joe manchin other susan collins lisa murkowski the kind of centrist pragmatist middle of the senate. That is going to be the focus. I think no matter frankly who wins the senate and georgia but especially if republicans control the senate and that actually seems to have been enough and pelosi and schumer came around and said okay. Let's use this to negotiate mitch. Mcconnell seems to suggest he's actually willing to do that i think. Donald trump is a real x factor. Here i mean there's a lot of concern that he may do something irrational or blow up some of these some of these deals. But i i think this is bottom line pretty good news for the american people generally and maybe a glimmer of hope for more optimistic times to come in the senate. Well we'll move attorney general bar now. The president is disappointed at the attorney. General for not looking hard enough at why trump didn't win the election. This comes after bill barr said this week. There wasn't enough evidence of fraud. That would overturn the election. Do you still have confidence in a in a number of weeks from now they should be looking at all of this fraud morning. joe is supported by norton. Lifelock this holiday season will be trying to stay connected with family and friends through our devices. And i don't know about you. But i've already started my blizzard of online shopping but all that online activity can mean more chances of exposing your personal information in fact sixty four percent of adults admit to risking online privacy for convenience but buying gifts are getting something special for yourself. You may not know that your identity has been compromised or that your info has been sold on the dark web. Don't spend the holidays without identity. Theft protection from lifelock. It monitors for uses of your personal information and if you have a problem with identity theft a us based identity restoration. Specialist will work to fix it. No one can prevent all identity theft or monitor all transactions at all businesses. But lifelock can help you feel safer and warm. This holiday season all year long. Save up to twenty five percent off your first year. Go to lifelock. Dot com slash. Mj that's locked dot com slash mj. To save twenty five percent off not here. The curse the darkness we. I had a light a candle. I'm chuck rosenberg on my podcast. The oath i talk with people who served with integrity and honor men and women who liked the way. Our conversations on the oath are thoughtful civil respectful essential. We bring these leaders in their struggles and successes to life this week the oath returns with former. Fbi director robert mueller. Here i thought thanks. Rinker is your men. How do i keep my man safe. I was there to take care of. Harmen join me for season for the oath and msnbc podcast search for the oath wherever you are listening right now and subscribe new episodes every wednesday nbc news reports that the president has not ruled out firing the attorney general but that a sudden departure was not seen as imminent. There's also new reporting on the justice department investigation into alleged bribery scheme involving a presidential pardon to people familiar with the investigation. Tell the new york times said it concerned. The efforts of the attorney. To jared kushner abby lowell and republican fundraiser elliott brady who pleaded guilty earlier this year in a different lobbying scheme involving the trumpet since bringing new york times reporter and msnbc national security analyst and bestselling author. Michael schmidt. michael. What can you tell us about the story. So on tuesday this document came out that basically laid out the this scheme about a a bribe being paid for part and how the justice department was going to great lengths to examine some documents related to it going through such great lengths that they went to a federal judge to ask for permission to see some of this material but the document was highly redacted. You could not make much sense of who this document was about but what our reporting shows is that. It's sort of this this this this elaborate but very trumpian story about a wealthy republican donor. Who named sanford diller. This man who was trying to help a bay area psychologists who had pulled ahead been sentenced to over two years in prison on tax charges. The this guy. Sanford diller was trying to get this person out of prison and basically thought because i have given all of this money to republican causes. It should open the doors for me to try and get clemency for this psychologist. Psychologists who had helped sanford diller so in the course of this sanfer diller reaches out to elliott brady. The trump fundraiser elliott brady connects him with abby lull. Who later goes on to become jared. Kushner's lawyer abbe lowell. Who has gone out there. And repeatedly made false statements about jared kushner security clearance so abby. This is back in twenty seventeen Works with these folks on trying to get this clemency now fast forward to this past summer and the justice department is looking at some sort of email correspondences that raised questions about what had really gone on here. And what was this. This wealthy donor. Sanford diller trying to do and trying insane about how. He was trying to get this clemency. Bottom line in two thousand eighteen. Sanford dillard die None of this was in the materials that came out on tuesday and the simple fact that the justice department was investigating. This just raised all new questions about the pardon process going on at the white house. And that's because the president has refused to follow the normal pardon process in what he's done he is treated pardons like party favors or gifts for friends and doing that has has opened up the door to certainly allow the public to wonder what's really going on here. How are you using your part in power so we also know michael as you reported earlier in the week. that rudy. Giuliani has been talking with the white house about a potential pardon for himself and the president has talked about blanket pardons for members of his own family. We should point out in your story. That abbe lowell. And elliott brody bo. Say they did nothing wrong here. There was no wrongdoing in. The white house didn't comment on the story but for people putting these pieces together and trying to sort through some new names and new players here. What was the white house role in this. How did this go to. The oval office is something that donald trump himself would have been involved in discussing so we know from the documents that there was some back and forth with the white house. Counsel's office which is supposed to be the place at the white house. That looks at clemency requests. We don't know if it went any further than that. From abby lowell side abdul side says that abby was not representing jared kushner at the time this is before he was representing cara kushner in he would not and never has raised questions of pardons with jared kushner. So we don't know a lot about what happened on the white house side. We don't know has has tried to figure math. Mike let me ask you in your great book. Donald trump versus the united states You went through so much certainly went through an awful lot with william barr from everything that you wrote from all of your research. It must seem nothing strange in this white house but it quite interesting that it is not william bar. Who's on the outs after after. He degraded himself for years and may in fact not even making to the end of donald trump's term no donald trump in many ways has william barr thank for his presidency. As i write about in my book. William bar was really the person who helped guide the malla report in such a favorable way to donald trump that the president was able to go out and claim that he was fully exonerated. Although he he wasn't in that's not what the report did That there was no collusion. All the claims that trump a that happened in large part. Because of william barr and william bar was able to manage it To the point. That which i just soon astounding point of bar and muller and trump is dead the day after robert muller testifies before congress donald trump. It's only donald. Trump could do when out and took the greatest hits volume one of the ball report. Which is about colluding with a foreign power around on election foreign interference and volume two which was about obstruction and donald trump was able to be certainly not be nothing. Nothing came of a muller report in regards to him. Donald trump was able to go out and combine them into one single in what he does when he picks up the phone. The day after the robber miller testifies in two thousand nineteen and he called the ukrainian president and he's able to take Colluding with a foreign power or foreign interference in an election and obstruction using the justice department. To go after your rivals and he combines them into one which turns into impeachment That was a result of the fact in many ways that donald trump had not paid any price around the report and that was directly because of his attorney. General william bar all right mike schmidt. Michael thank you so much for your reporting the book again is donald trump versus the united states. And it's interesting alex. Just telling me that Yesterday when donald trump turned on william charlie said today was a day in the maga- universe swim the truly. Deranged turned on the merely dimiss. Just not it's not even. It's not believable. You think. I'm not shocked shocked at donald trump. I'm shocked at your friends and family and republicans and by the way if they i'm sorry if your friends received half of what president trump has done to you you would stand for your friends and loved ones loud and proud thank you. I don't get what's going on here. Okay because people are dying because of this man really what do you think. Stay out of this one joe. You're on your own again. These are inside. Don't go breaks. We tell on morning to mitral college. Paper bag here could have half. This is going to be a tough season. we're not having people for holidays. Don't gather don't talk and have a great time. That's the advice from the cdc plus the new york times with his new reporting on trump campaign. Legal adviser jenna. Ls and how. She's not the type of lawyer she plays on tv. And i have exciting news for you. Joe you're on the new york times bestseller list your new book saving freedom to tell you the truth rather just have the cold war and the fight for western civilization has landed on the new york times bestseller list. Congratulations you're watching morning joe. We'll be right back. Hey it's chris as this. My podcast wise is happening. I'll be talking with outgoing congresswoman debbie mook or so powell who just lost a tight reelection race in miami dade county about what went wrong for down ballot democrats in two thousand twenty. This is much more complicated than just making any assumption that it was socialism. It was the police cuvette while it was all of those things combined and it was also the republican party spreading out lies and conspiracy theories. I mean we can't forget that we cannot forget what they were doing. They were spending their money doing that. But at the same time we can assume that racial identity is what drives voters. We need to understand the different issues. That drive voters here in south florida warren south texas. And yes we all happen to be latino by the way. That's this week on. Why is this happening. Search for wise's happening wherever you're listening right now and subscribe. What is your favorite memory of working. Or were spending time with joe biden. Probably my strongest memories of joe are when we were campaigning together I'd work the world blinds after. I made a speech in on hug babies and yeah his grandma's and we go around and shake hands and all this stuff and i felt like i'd Shaking every hand. And i'm finished with the rope line and i look back like joe's just starting i mean i think he's gotten the life story of the first four people and campaigning with joe meant you were going to be late because he he really cares about Your hearing people and led men know that important. And i think that fundamental character of his is exactly what we need right now after So much Division anger and frustration. Just having somebody who likes people cares about him knows their struggles. I think that's gonna make a big difference and i think Kamla will bring some of those same values to bear a one mega in. I'll tell you what that is a really is regardless of whether you're a democrat or republican you can look at joe biden see how he responds to republicans and independents and democrats alike and understand that. I can't take it back to gerald ford after. Richard nixon left office. Ford was a fundamentally decent man. He was a good man. Republicans and democrats knew that and they saw it and it really did start the healing of this country after vietnam and watergate and let's hope after many tumultuous years very tumultuous actually i twenty years of this century This new century. I think it's time for us to slow down. A couple of deep breaths in washington. Dc and have republicans democrats working together again. And hopefully joe biden can get us back to that place where we were that was an exclusive sneak peek at jimmy fallon's interview with former president barack obama which airs tonight on the tonight show joining us now co founder and ceo of jim vanda high longtime media executive and editor at large at newsweek and cnbc founder and contributor tom rogers and new york times reporter jeremy peters good to have you all joining us germany You had quite a piece in the new york times about one of donald trump's lawyers tell us about it so geneticists somebody you will recognize from television and when we started reporting on her. We found out that really. That's most of what she's known for or television. Appearances went back and interviewed lawyers in colorado where she started practicing and found that while she's prosecutor criminal cases. Landlord tenant disputes D wise things like that and was a defense attorney for some time. She has never once filed for an appearance in federal court. She's never handled any election walk. And she's also padded her resume to make herself appear as a constitutional law expert. Which is how often referred to when you see her on fox news well only qualifications for being a constitutional law expert. are a self published book and a role teaching legal studies to undergraduates. She teaches at a school. That doesn't have a law school but she calls herself a constitutional law. Professor which i think most lawyers would save is a complete exaggeration of your claims. Now this is all fine. If you're just a country lawyer than by all means deprive yourself that way but not holding herself up as a country lawyer. She's holding herself up as a constitutional law expert and the legal counsel to the president of the united states. Somebody with great authority. When in fact she does not have much authority on the subject with which she reports to speak. And willie. i'm i'm living proof that there's nothing wrong with being a country lawyer. I mean you don't want me trying to defend the president's courtroom or anything like that but this is really end as we. Donald trump a long time. This this is what he does. He take shortcuts. He cuts corners. Because he doesn't want to pay the price of one top lawyers in new york or in washington are gonna cost him and besides most lawyers. Just certainly no lawyer. That that that i ever worked for would ever take a client. Like donald trump. Because you've got to have a client that one tells the truth and to follow your directions when you walk into court when you go into the courtroom your client works for you. Your client keeps her mouth. Shut if you want your client to keep their mouth shut the talks or she talks when you need them to talk to win the case. That's just not what donald trump does. He can't follow directions at all. And we'll get a lawyer in trouble. A great lawyer in trouble real fast and what's doubly strange about. This is heading into the election season. Like all campaigns. Do there was a team of actual lawyers like election lawyers. Who could have prosecuted these cases but he instead turn to rudy giuliani and miss ellis. She as you know. Jeremy was a prosecutor at county prosecutor in colorado. Was as you point out doing traffic cases and misdemeanors so the larger question. We were talking about this yesterday. With lynnwood is he was screaming in a maga- hat down in georgia. Why are these attorneys doing it is. It's simply the fame the money now. They'll be on the speaking circuit and they'll write a book and they'll be inside that sort of maga- bubble now or what. What are they doing this for. Look i think it's always pretty hard to tell with these people and trump world what their true beliefs are whether or not they actually believe that millions. And millions of voters voted fraudulently. I do think the party answer. Willie is that. It's just easy to get in the inner circle right now because nobody else wants to be there. I mean this is one thing we heard when we were reporting the story is that there just aren't a lot of lawyers right now top quality high qualifications. Who will work for this president in this legal pursuit because there is no way to win it and the the as a lawyer to go around making claims like alex and rudy giuliani have of this massive fraud when there is no evidence it's not just questionable it may be unethical and in violation of a proper conduct codes for the way attorneys are supposed to carry solves. Jeremy thank you so much for coming on this morning. Let's turn now to thanh rogers and tom. You've been coming on this show in the weeks leading up to the election. Warning of the possible end runs that the president could make around the democracy that we hold. What do you make of these legal efforts right now on. How much do they coincide with what you were warning about. Well it's clear that the legal strategy all along was getting this into the house of representatives by getting state legislature Point alternative elector slate and ignore the popular vote and giuliani still had it today and the reason that they have these third rate lawyers leading the charge is that there really isn't any evidence to back up what they said. Look we we. We gotta learn from this experience and know what we need to do to reform so that the somebody else cannot follow this path again and the first thing we gotta learn is this election came within forty four thousand votes of landing in the house of representatives and it others the story of seven million popular vote win. Doesn't tell that the story of three hundred sixty two hundred thirty. Two electoral votes doesn't how that donald trump won in two thousand sixteen by seventy thousand votes across wisconsin. pennsylvania and michigan and joe biden. Only one by half that. About forty four thousand votes across arizona georgia and wisconsin and those forty four thousand votes had gone the other way. The electoral college would have been a two sixty nine to sixty nine. I would have gone into the house of And donald trump would have won that vote in the house of representatives. That's how close we got now. Their plan was forget about where it where that ended up. They were gonna convince state legislatures on some narrative of fraud who appoint alternative electors and have it thrown into the house of representative off the chaos. That would create. Fortunately that did not happen. The guardrails held but if he'd been any closer or there had been any real election irregularities it could have been pointed to they would have had the momentum potentially to make that happen until we need a few reforms. Here i at the state level. We gotta make sure that states changed the law so that they can count absentee ballots before election day. So you don't have this red mirage. Blue wave potential mischievous bits narrative over three or four days of counting that can sue secondly at the federal level. This electoral count act of eighteen. Eighty seven that hasn't been reformed in over one hundred and forty years. We gotta figure out too key ways to reform that at the federal level one you can only appoint electors based on who won the popular vote. That's gotta be clear in the federal law and two states have to have in place. Their procedures for electoral college electors being selected at least sixty days before the election. So none of this post election. We're gonna come up with some alternative paths to award electoral votes. After the fact on some new irie can happen. Those are two key reforms down and that eighty seven bill really does. It needs to be updated. There's so much of this that needs to be updated. And yes there. Jim vanda hi yes. The constitution of the united states says the state legislators certainly determine how Votes are counted and how elections iran unfortunately in wisconsin pennsylvania and michigan. They decided they would not let the states count the votes in the mail in votes early we would have known who on election night. Had they done that but there does. Doesn't there have to be some at least on the counting of electoral votes and in the process following the election. There needs to be some reforms. Some we need to tighten up some of these ambiguities not just democrats but for democrats and republicans who may find themselves in this position for years from now one. It's hard to do. You have to do it up. State by state. I do think like if you could get the votes counted ahead of time. That's probably the thing that would have mitigated a lot of this. The truth is a system works. Like i'm sitting here listening to this all real in all the stuff that trump and his lawyers are doing a we've known it's been based on nonsensical legal logic from the beginning in. There's been a lot of theater and a lot of circus but it almost every single case. The court system works exactly the way the court system should work. Even republican state officials in many of these states behave the way. Republican state officials should behave in these states even when they drew the ire of donald trump and so they can often puff but at the end of the day. Joe biden is going to be president in january. We're going to had all of this on the outside but it really isn't going to matter yes. It goes at like the heart of kenya challenge. Every single thing about our system gets you can rhetorically but if you can't legally it doesn't have a practical effect in. It's interesting when you were saying earlier. Pre- segment about justice obsession. That joe biden has with normal normal. Really seems to be working for him. Think about the pixies made so far from the cabinet. If the biggest controversy we're going to have is that his own beat a director treated things that offensive to republicans he's clearly done something that's diffused republicans who are inclined to not give them everybody. He wants for his cabinet naming Wear masks focus on the stimulus package. He's had this plan ever since south carolina in it's been nice. I think juxtaposition for him against sort of the circus Illegal theatrics because it's the only thing really can focus on. He's gonna come into january and he's gonna have a hell of a thing greeting him right. You're going to have lots of unemployment. You're going to have an economy. It's crushed for at least people the service astronomy and you're gonna have donald trump. Who's doing a lot of stuff that he's doing now on the outside and he's going to have to figure out a way to get that economy and get that vaccine out in. I think normal is probably the best strategy. You could use any circumstances. Hey generally quickly then figured out. Euro wisconsin guy. You figured out. Exactly what happened in wisconsin. How some polls had joe biden winning by eighty seven points and it ended up being one of the tighter states. I really do think it's some of these states in particular. It's just clear that there were so many people who were never gonna tell. Pollsters how voting the you had both these people who are maybe somewhere embarrassed to some of them are just being a mischievous in. Were so wildly off like this idea that people are still defending polls is probably got it right somewhere. A poll headed Joking about seventy seventeen points off. Seems like a pretty big miscalculation. And again i just a quick look for different ways to measure of people actually feel about things because donald trump despite all the things that he's doing today continues to be more popular than we've been out looks like his favorable rating was close to fifty by the time. The election are rolled around. And i don't think anybody saw that coming in. So wow we can sort of ridiculed the lawyers around donald trump. The reality of donald trump won't change and now by the way he controls the rnc us raise two hundred million a lot of that cupid regular politics. he's not going away or delusional that he's going to say it as much as thinking going to fame. Tim banda high and tom. Rogers thank you both for being on this morning and still ahead. The cdc announced guidelines this week for the first phase of coronavirus by respect seen distribution would look like and who should receive it But what comes after that a lack of planning is raising concerns about what happens next and also who pays for it. Nbc's heidi preuss spell joins us with her latest reporting on that morning. Joe is back in a moment high. It's msnbc's alley belsey these days. There's just so much news to wrap your head around. It's hard to know what's most important. That's why we're updating msnbc dot com with a special feature on our homepage called msnbc daily. It's a place where you'll find the same type of expert analysis. You're used to getting on tv. But now with a new written perspective section all neatly organized in one place so you can go beyond the headlines and get a deeper understanding of the that matter. Most you'll find perspectives written by people uniquely qualified to write them people. You're familiar with from our network. Barbara mcquade writing about legal matters. Dr kavita patel weighing in on public health liz plank giving her take on women's rights and gender issues and i'm excited to share that i'll be writing some pieces of my own so visit. Msnbc dot com today and look for our new feature msnbc daily.

dr fauci donald trump joe biden one hundred days justice department dr paul trevor noah cdc jared kushner white house joe elliott brady william barr department of people's justice forty seven days msnbc joe willie Casey hud senate twenty five percent
Fast Money 03/25/2020

CNBC's Fast Money

49:32 min | 10 months ago

Fast Money 03/25/2020

"What IS DECISION TECH BY FIDELITY? It's technology that can help you find a stock based on what's trending or investing goal. It's real time insights and information delivered in your own customized view of the market. It's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions and it's only from fidelity open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services. Llc MEMBER NYSE SIPC or no deal stocks giving up a big chunk of their game signs that a massive two trillion dollar relief bill could be delayed Bernie Sanders and four. Gop SENATORS WELCOME CBC's continuing coverage of these markets. I am Brian Sullivan checkup a late day. Move in the market and you could see the market taking a big hit into the close right at the end of the day. That's as Senator Bernie. Sanders came out and said that he will hold up the two trillion dollar package if the GOP senators do not change their views on what he calls corporate welfare. The Dow did manage to finish the day in the green however but well off ties still want to find a positive. It is the first back to back days in the gains in the Dow. Since early February. A lot of today's Riley was driven by Boeing optimism. Around bail out there helping Boeing post a twenty four percent gain. Its best day ever since the Nineteen Sixty two IPO. We're GONNA dig into all of this. Tonight's traitor panel guy. Tim Stephen K. They're all standing by for you. Plus you'll hear from New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. State just reported one of its biggest single-day jumps in corona virus cases where to speak with the governor about what is being done to stem the outbreak. And help all those hardworking men and women and their businesses in the garden state as is becoming a trend lately we are also waiting a White House briefing on the virus. We're going to bring it to you. Live as soon as it occurs but let us begin with that bombshell out of Capitol Hill where we are seeing new signs. That stimulus aid bill could be delayed. Latasha she is live in. Dc with more on this developing story Kayla. Brian there are some late day. Snags in the stimulus bill. That was supposed to sail through with bipartisan support. After days of round the clock negotiations now progressives Alexandria Akhazia Cortez and Bernie Sanders or vowing to gum up. The works and delay vote in either chamber if Senate Republicans succeed in getting changes that they have sought earlier today. A OC tweeting. There is absolutely no good reason. Why Senate Republicans are tying a historic corporate giveaway to getting relief? Money in the hands of Families Sanders says if Republicans get their way that he'll move to add more conditions to the five hundred billion dollar loan program that he is calling a corporate welfare fund earlier today three Senate Republicans objected to the fact that four. Some states workers who are laid off and get unemployment benefits would be making more than they would have made had they been employed. They say that that is a perverse incentive. Here's Senator Lindsey Graham describing earlier this bill pays you more not to work then. If you were working very few people are going to turn down a twenty four hour dollar deal not to work a GOP aide says that this is the result of trying to standardize. The dollar figure paid out to laid off workers in different states a second. Gop aide says that it's understood that there will be changes needed to appease either side but it's still unclear how substantive those would be Brian. Or a killer she in DC kill. Thank you very much. Of course we're going to hear much more in all of this tomorrow morning when we interviewed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. That'd be at nine. Am Eastern time. We may or may not have a deal by then all right. Let's now bring in tonight's trader panel making kind of feel like the fast money of old guy. Dhamma Tim Seymour. Steve Grasso and Brian Kelly names you know and trust great to chat with guys wherever you may be guided me. Let's begin with you as well. I Two Day Rally for the Dow it a month. Do you take some comfort from that absolutely in an hi Brian. Hi Everybody Yeah you have to take comfort and it without question Encouraging something I said yesterday sort of rings true as well. Today I know you've mentioned Bernie Sanders. And how he sort of putting a Kabosh on this rally a little bit today but I gotTa tell you something yesterday. The volatility index went from fifty two to sixty one today. The volatility index closed higher on the day and we can speak to how good indicator that's been in this environment but the fact that the vix is going higher on a day or two days when the Dow's up somewhat twenty five hundred or so points is a little bit is a little bit disconcerting. I think it speaks to me that I don't think we're necessarily out of the woods yet. Bryan yes a little bit weird there on that. Vic something to watch all right Tim Seymour. Let's talk about watching Boeing. At twenty four percent gain. The market is obviously betting that this stimulus deal is going to get done because Boeing I guess would be a massive beneficiary of it unless something material is changed in it between now and the vote. Well again Boeing's deal is also about the airlines getting a deal and Look at Airbus. We've talked about this in terms of the impact. The bigness for balling today was discussion. That 737 Max in June begins production. I think it's critical. It's critical certainly ultimately for a company that people want to believe the former business model worked and airlines have the same appetite. And obviously there's still a lot to work through on the public relations in the FAA side. But that that's the kind of movie you've seen and over the last two days. People done the math. I mean you know Boeing hit a low of ninety one or eighty nine dollars and at some point today. Intraday was in the in the seventies. So this is the kind of reaction that if this company has a balance sheet and again I focus on the commercial aircraft. Then this is a company. That's not only gonNA survive but it will remain one of the better companies out. There tremendous headwinds short to medium-term and I you know as someone that's long the name and actually believes in the longer term business model. It's far from easy sledding here but with support from the government with support from the airline industry and with a plan to get this plane back into production. That's what we're waiting for. Not An overstatement based on what we've seen to say that every day hundreds of thousands if not more. Americans are losing their jobs everyday so it's hard to believe that the senators are not going to kind of come to some conclusion and get a deal done. That said we've seen things happen. Congress before if a deal is delayed by a day or not signed for a day or a week. What's going to happen to the market? Yeah you know it's funny. Hey Brian I. It's really funny because I traded through Through multiple crisis but I remember distinctly trading through two thousand eight two thousand nine when everybody thought well obviously the Senate and the Congress has to pass our And they didn't and the market just tank and so you know. I think there's a danger of bat again. I'll be shocked if that happens but I do think there's a danger of that happening. I mean you know. Our government by design is supposed to be slow and clunky and inefficient. And we're trying to pass something that people need money today. I mean there are people with forty dollars in their bank account over forty percent of the. Us population has only four dollars in their bank account. You know by the end of this week. It's GonNa Start to get tight for people so this is more of a humanitarian crisis in a political issue. At this point I mean. Dsw warehouse ticket eighty percent of their staff on basically leave without direct compensation. They will have employee benefits. But they're not getting paid. Steve Grasso. That story is replicated all across the country. We know that the market is supposed to be discounting mechanism predict. The future may be six eight nine months out. Do you feel that Monday was a bottom? I don't know if you could necessarily call the bottom just yet Bryan. Obviously this market is going on stimulus right now because it wants a treatment Watson vaccine. We're not getting either one of those so it's all on stimulus. Right now. Was Monday bottom when I look across my desk and I see that equity stakes or what scooping the market now even with the stimulus. I don't know if you can call the bottom into you. Really get a treatment or a vaccine. But I'm definitely encourage going into month. And because of the woody amount that needs to be purchased for pension funds. Yeah and that's it. I mean there's so many large-scale problems out there guy. It's almost impossible to know where to start. I want to talk about apple though. Let's get a little bit micro. That stock fell in Nikkei reporting that apple. Maybe delaying its five g phones. We might start to see some longer term impacts if that indeed report is true on these names that have been powering. This rally. You guys have talked about fast money for five years. If if Microsoft an apple those they start to roll over continuously what then you gotta find a place where you think. It's safe to get back into the water in terms of apple and if you're looking for levels then again. I'm not suggesting by any stretch. It's getting there but you know that if you go back to the to twenty level which was sort of the the highs. We topped out in June and July. Two Thousand Nineteen and prior to that. And May I mean that makes a Lotta sense so you have to sort of say to yourself? Look if this stock gets to these levels regardless of what's happening in the world I'm going to step in and buy you know you have to have a plan going in because if it gets there I'll tell you right. Now it's GonNa look terrifying. But quickly on the Boeing Front and Dan Nathan alluded to this. I think the fact that Boeing came back and told the government they have no interest in being deluded by them in terms of an equity stake. I think that was really encouraging for the broader market. I think a lot of people were playing bowling from the short side thinking. It's going to get extraordinarily dilute of the stock. It's going to be have a fifty handle and I think that caught a lot of people off guard. So don't underestimate the power of the Boeing. Move on this broad rally over the last couple of days. Yeah Tim can I ask you to focus on Ford? The stock maybe thirty minutes ago the company getting its credit rating downgraded to junk by. Snp obviously for many reasons. The stock is down after hours. I brought this up last night with guest and I'll just ask you because I know that you're a plane speaker. Do you think that there needs some kind of a hold put on these credit rating downgrades? I'm not knocking Moody's Fitch I'm just saying these companies are facing these executives. Events is not because their business is inherently bad. Do you think we need to stop that or just let that function the way it always has. I wouldn't stop thing. I mean ultimately I want to understand what the the Bouchier these companies look like Ultimately debt covenants are what they are dead. Investors Invest in credit investors certainly are judging their entire livelihood based upon again the ability to pay dot the willingness. So I like. Gm was downgraded as well. Today what we're going to see what we've said all along while we got so worried about this trough of essentially tripled the debt. That was out there. Across the investment grade corporate sector is that the downgraded Johnke was gonna be dramatic and it was going to be significant having said all that again. I think if you look at the investment grade credit investment scenario not what a lot of our investors A lot of our audience look at but just in terms of understanding what is most oversold. I would say investment grade credit is probably cheap relative to its long-term average as much as any other part of the market but do I need credit rating credit rating agencies To step in now in downgrade. I mean you know. I'm not sure that's doing the a lot of good or telling me what I didn't already know. And again Ford over in terms of credit exposure and I would say that concerns there are significantly greater but look market has to do. Its job. Alice have to do their job. Transparency has to be there. You can't you can't placate you. Can't I think that that would be disturbing to me? The fact that the feds getting involved in handling where Both the public that consumer and certain companies need a bailout. That's fine but saying that we can't look at the market for what it is and understand where companies went into this over there sees and are now that much more beleaguered. I want to know that they need to do that job. Okay I hear. It's a fair point. Became I guess. My point is listen. Ford built up. Its own one hundred and fifty six billion in de the actual number. But if we're being told we can't leave the house to go buy a car. I mean we just can't actually do that in many states. I do wonder if companies are going to be sort of unfairly punished by the market. I mean fair is a subjective term. I get it. We've literally never had this kind of situation in modern American history. Yeah I mean listen we have a government mandated recession. Everybody closes desk. Stay at the grocery store and hopefully not to see your dot right and so. That's no company's fault necessarily You know so so. I think there's an argument to be made there that you need to kind of look through that That being said I actually think Ford is a really interesting stock to watch for tomorrow. I'm always looking for a stock that trades really well on bad news panthers that means it's flushed out. That means it's priced in so I would watch for tomorrow morning and see if that thing starts to go green that's going to be a really positive sign for the market because it means you know what everybody knew. This was coming. That's old news now. We're looking forward so I if there's one name I'm looking for tomorrow it's board and how traits green shoots for the blue light to hear it a little optimism. Pk There Steve. Grasso leave it with you. Listen tomorrow morning going to get that unemployment number of the weekly jobless claims number. I tweeted out last night. It could be a five million people. Applying for unemployment benefits does the economic data is going to impact trading at all or. Do you think everybody just no matter. How bad numbers are the market is probably already priced that in so so the problem is the market and intelligent. People can price that in but the market has had this systemic technology algorithm arrhythmic. Drive to it so I think the algorithms are GonNa read that number just as negative as if it wasn't out there already and just negative as if all of us didn't realize it was already gonna be. That's where you can get the flush but I think the other interesting point about Ford. Gm is that the way this rule is written in in the stimulus plan. I'm not sure that the Fed could find their debt so we have to get a little bit brand new. Maybe change that. Maybe we'll change the wording on that but I ask because interesting to say to the credit rating agencies. Take a powder. Let's revisit this in a month or two guys. We do appreciate it Guy Donnie Tim Seymour Bouquet. And Steve Grasso guys appreciate it. Be well thinking of you all right. Look forward to the day that everybody's around this guess again all right on the head of the. Us Chamber of Commerce is with us what he likes the relief bill and what businesses around America still need from it assuming it is ever signed and later on Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. His state now has the second highest number of cases in the nation. Were to talk to him about what he is doing. Just trying to stem the outbreak. Protect all those hardworking small businessmen and women across the garden state. Stick with us. What IS DECISION TECH BY FIDELITY? It's technology that can help you find a stock based on what's trending or an investing goal. It's real time insights and information delivered in your own customized view of the market. It's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions and it's only from fidelity opening account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services. Llc member NYSE SIPC quarterback what we hopefully await the passage of the two trillion dollar relief built. Let's focus our attention to the economy. Hundred Sixty three million Americans during the labor force yesterday. Canada had five percent of its labor force file for unemployment benefits which means if we posted the same rate of jobless benefits tomorrow morning as Canada. Being five million Americans applying for unemployment benefits in one week and would array six years of job gains across the country joining us now. Is Tom Donahoe? Ceo of the US Chamber of Commerce. Tom It's good to chat with you again and I mean let's hope the number is not that large but at this point we just don't know and yet Congress continues to seem to dither over the details. Where do we stand on the bill? Are you optimistic? Something is going to done absolutely. I believe that we can count on something being done either this evening or the first thing in the morning the deal is all cut. There happened to be a few senators that are as sort of Exercising Some of their ability to have a different view. But it's GonNa get past and we're asking the House of Representatives and not the bonded. Come back they don't have to. There's a way to just have them approve it tomorrow. We need to do that because we need to. Take all of these resources. We've assembled under this. Very Good Bill and beginning mmediately to distribute them around this country so that no company goes bankrupt. Knows CITIZEN GOES bankrupt. No family goes bankrupt. We have things in this bill to avoid. Let's do it you. And what's amazing in sort of bizarre? Tom Is that you've got parts of the economy that are working. Obviously the first responders they are working all the hardworking people at the grocery store and the truck drivers and delivering it by the way. Some of us here as well. The Nasdaq but in other parts aren't and so we see this. We see like you talked about four getting its credit rating downgrade. And I brought up the idea of maybe pausing some of this stuff. Do we need just kind of a real two to three week? Total pause in the economy. I feel like we're kind of halfway there. Well YOU BRIAN. You know we can't. We can't pause. The part of the economy produces and delivers food to the shelves of stores in the people that sell them. We can't do that with gasoline. We can't do that with the people that provide power generation for the whole country. We and we can go on and on their hundreds of services and companies. That are out there doing their job. what we're trying to do if you look for a second on the pen dynamic is you're not going to cure this whole thing. The idea is to push down that bubble and get it down flatter so that we'll be able to have adequate services in every city across this country to take care of those that are really sick and need our soon after that. We're going to start moving more people back to work but that has to be done in an orderly cooperative business between the government the United States and the medical professionals both in the government and out of the government so that we make things better not worse. And I think we're on our way to get there not tomorrow not next week but soon. Is there any realistic estimate? Or indication of the financial damage that has been done to the small businesses across the United States. We have anything yet. Well we've talked about data in recent hours and the point is you're not gonna be able to figure that out until put the resources that we're going to put in place and see what is not there to be rescued and we can even then go back and bring people back into a company that have already been. Let go and have those loans which turn into grants and companies will be able to You know get out of a hole that they might be. I'm not sure what the number is GONNA be. It'll certainly be something but we're GonNa put a minimum right away of three hundred and fifty billion dollars in too many of these programs and when you add it all up for the big companies. The small companies the hospitals and everybody. That's going to get a break here. All the individual workers And then go to what the Federal Reserve and the and the Treasury are going to be able to do together. They're going to have a package that will go up four trillion dollars. You know the last two. Of course you're going to have to pay back but. I think we've taken a big step forward. We need to do it. Four and a half times larger than two thousand nine but quickly time you do remain optimistic. Bill will get signed by soon. I'm an Irishman. I've watched what this country could do for a long long time. We're doing it. We're a little slowdown with what's going on in Washington. Probably not heard this yet but we gotta move on it right now. I'm an absolute optimist. This country will stand for nothing else. Well Tom I'll tell you. What when this thing hol wraps up when we get back together again. The First Guinness is on me. Irishman Irishman. Tom Donahue thank you very much about it man. I'll be there all right. Choose Tonight at seven o'clock and important program for you to tune in to be sure to catch a special CNBC townhall pandemic and the path Ford. We're to speak with former chief White House advisor. Gary Cohn Mark Cuban Nasdaq CEO need a Freedman John. Rogers Ariel investments in former FDA heads Scott Godly to not miss it tonight. Seven all right up next to this back to your money. Market veteran mark mobius trying time the challenges all of our basic assumptions. However one thing that brings us all together is our common humanity now more than ever teams must come together and work together to solve big challenges and Trello is here to help trello part of Atlassian collaborative sweet as an APP with an easy to understand visual format plus tons of features that make working with your team functional and just plain fun teams of all shapes and sizes and companies like Google fender and even Cosco all used Trello to collaborate and get work done with Trello. You can work with your team wherever you are whether it's at home or in an office no matter what device you're using computer tablet or phone. Trello sinks across all of them so you can stay up to date on all the things your team cares about. Keep your workflow going from wherever you are with Trello try Trello for free and learn more at Trello DOT com. That's T. R. E. L. L. O. DOT COM TRELLO DOT COM. Find out where he is finding opportunity around the world and these wild swings and then New Jersey Governor Phil. Murphy's steak just reported one of the biggest single-day jumped in cases but he may have some good news on. We're GONNA ask about that. And what is being done to protect the garden state sticker up all right welcome back. We are very pleased to be joined on. Cnbc by Phil Murphy. Of course he is the governor of New Jersey Governor Murphy. Thank you very much for joining us. During these difficult times I saw Bryan. Thank you and you know as listed as a New Jersey resident. I'm glad to speak with you as well. And there's so much fear around what's going on right now. I understand that anxiety levels are up. I actually heard that you had a little bit of. I think good news earlier today where you said as bad as it is. We need to remember that. Eighty to eighty five percent of cases. End Up fairly mild. Is that correct data. I'd say moderate to mild Brian. And that's that's the that's the the worldwide trend and that's important for folks to know so we'll see where the number two impacted state right now. In America we have forty four hundred folks who've tested positive. We've lost sixty two precious lives. We knew these numbers. We're going to go up. Were in a war and I would just say to folks no time to panic but also no time for business as usual and this notion of staying home and social distancing and allow us to build out capacity aggressively in the Healthcare System. That combination will allow us to deal with this. And I've got a good friend. Who is a doctor at Robert Wood? Johnson obviously the doctors and nurses. They are working their tails off here night night and day. What is being done as far as extra facilities tents outside where do we stand on respirators ventilators? Yep So we've got On the I'll put aside social distancing and flattening the curve and staying at home to one side for a second although that's really important on the healthcare side there are three variables were trying to expand as dramatically as possible critical care beds personal protective equipment including a ventilators and thirdly the healthcare workforce who are heroes right now on the first two. That's a lot of not entirely and not exclusively but that's a lot Senator our relationship with the federal government. I was on with Vice President Pence earlier. We'll be back at it again tomorrow. About to get on a call. With the FEMA administrator we have four field hospitals being delivered right now from Femur region to the army chorus helping set them up. We're opening wings of hospitals. That were closed. We're looking at opening hole hospitals that were close converting things like dorm rooms for low symptom folks a lot going on there secondly on personal protective equipment. We just don't have enough And it's really frustrating. We've got a big asset to the federal government to their credit. They've given us to slugs but we we need a lot more. We're turning over every stone. Private sectors stepped up in a big way. We cancelled elective surgeries as a Friday. So those those Health Care Centers. We're going to get equipment. They're it's literally trying to scrap for every bit of it. The prices are going up the world market. We're all competing with each other as you can imagine if that's a big that's a big challenge and then expanding the workforce or things like school nurses retired nurses and healthcare workers Folks who are in the last semester in there to get their degree of folks who have a licensed state giving them a license to practice in New Jersey. So those are the three big initiatives on the healthcare system side. Were full speed ahead on all three trying to get out ahead of this thing. We're we're talking about this stimulus plan from a federal level governor. I wrote something quickly today. Basically saying you know like if you want to build a stadium you basically float the bonds and then you build the stadium and then you sort of pay it back with taxes and hotels and everything else. Is there something that New Jersey is looking at doing on the statewide level that we can New Jersey is a state where people the family owned? Restaurant still exists. It's not all big chains. Not taking anything away from them. How do we make sure that those small businesses across the state can survive discovery? Yeah I mean listen. Crushed As have the workers we had two choices. Bryant from the get-go we started meeting on this January. So we've been at this for months. One one possible road would have been to let the virus runamuck and taking nervous economic pain as a result with a lot of fatalities and folks who get sick the other road that we have chosen affirmatively to take every step of the way as to rip the band aid off take economic pain upfront but break. The back of the Corona virus hopefully keep our fatalities and sicknesses down and then reopened the economy. I still think that's the right way to go. I don't think you can reverse that order. And there's no price that's too much for us to try to save every single precious life. But in the meantime folks are getting crushed. The Federal Bill in Congress that you're referring to is a huge x factor for US assuming it comes out the right way and it gives us flexibility for workers who are unemployed for small businesses hospitals transit systems for the state itself. Frankly we're getting crushed as you can imagine That's a huge lifeline for us. Potentially going forward drove up here today on the TURNPIKE governor. And I don't need to tell you but it's but it's empty. What what also means is that the revenues for the Parkway and the Turnpike and the Lincoln Tunnel. These are lost. Revenues are the pension fund. Where do we stand on funding levels for critical services like the highways and roads? We need to get the trucks up and down into the grocery store as well as what's the state of the pension plan data the pension plan as you can imagine it's been is challenged The past couple of days in the market have been good ones and I don't know whether or not that continues or not. But the pension plans like any pension plans around the country have been hit sideways And so they're going to need some time here to stabilize Again I think the order of events here as painful as it is is to break the back of the virus and then responsibly begin to open society and the economy back. The president has mentioned Easter I listen I I hope he's right. I'll be th