19 Burst results for "Tom Keane"
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 09-22-2023 07:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV batteries' environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. This is Bloomberg Radio. We still think rates are somewhat too high over the long run. As long as the politics lets the U .S. be exceptional, you can have higher yields and a stronger dollar. Turning to the U .S., we are a lot weaker than consensus with U .S. growth. Inflation expectations are fairly well behaved for consumers. What we're seeing is the lagged impact of fairly aggressive monetary tightening really starting to bite. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keane, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. This is Bloomberg Surveillance live from the city of London for our audience worldwide. Good morning. Good morning. Alongside Tom Keane and Lisa Abramowitz, I'm Jonathan Farrow, your equity market positive here by 0 .2%. It's been a rough, dicey couple of days in this market. Let's put it all together. Biggest one -day loss on the S &P 500 in about six months, yields we haven't seen for more than a decade, cycle highs on a ten -year, on a two -year. This morning in today's session in Asian trading, we went through $4 .50 briefly on a ten -year. We come back about a basis point, $4 .48. TK, putting it all together, what a ride it's been over the last few trading days. I'm going to go away from the equity market. I really take issue with the worry and the doom and gloom on equities. It's barely a pullback here with a VIX at 17 .12, I believe, as a level. You think we had a 20, a 22, a 25 VIX. We got nothing. It's been resilient equity markets with the bounce back today. In the other areas, you're right, John, in foreign exchange, I can tell you it's an interesting study. It's not one or two pairs. It's like 10 or 12 pairs you can study. Sara Velles with us from Deutsche Bank.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 07:00 08-18-2023 07:00
"You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Amy Morris alongside Karen Moscow. It's 659 on Wall Street. Stay with us. Bloomberg Surveillance with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg When Radio. people say this country's economy is in bad shape, I call hogwash to that. This economy is very strong. In fact, it's booming. There are some angles here fundamentally that provide ongoing support for the equity markets. It feels like a lot of investors have been chasing the trade. There is a what I call a Goldilocks scenario emerging where we can avoid recession. I would anticipate from Powell probably next week, Jackson Hole, from the Fed that they lean into a hawkish bias still. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keane, Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. A year ago, Chairman Powell talked about pain. A year later, a lot of people in this US economy, the economists asking the question, what pain? Live from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning. For our audience worldwide, this is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio. Alongside Lisa Abramowitz, I'm Jonathan Farrow. Your equity market on the S &P 500. Three -day losing streak threatening to become four. We're negative here by 0 .2%. The official countdown to Chairman Powell and Jackson Hole has begun. Lisa, how does his comments this year compare to his comments from last year? I'm guessing that pain won't be mentioned quite as much as it was last year. Just a hunch, but we have gotten confirmation. In response to you, they basically came out and said, Jonathan Farrow asked whether we will hear from Chair Jay Powell and the answer is yes, he will come out and he will give a speech and he probably will give a short one that confirms a lot of what we've already heard. You don't expect to hear anything at 10 .05 Eastern Time a week today. I'm curious to see with a long -term neutral rate.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is boulder. On the latest edition of the Tate podcast, a conversation with Kathleen Hayes of Bloomberg television on the bank of Japan. Kathleen, I came in here and listened to the energy John farrow and Tom Keane have about the BOJ. I'm like, I don't know. Can you tell me why this is important? Why is this important? Oh my God. First of all, big surprise. I was sitting on the 6th floor in front of our camera up there, getting ready to react to this with our team in Tokyo and Asia. And when I saw the headline come across, widening yield curve control. I was shocked. Everyone was shocked. All the signals coming out of the bank of Japan, including governor kroda, repeatedly was no we're not ready. And the expectation has been, not ready to start making this move. Even with inflation rising, Corona kept saying, well, we don't know if it's sustainable. You know what? There might be a global recession, bring down prices. That's we need the stimulus. And then we're getting a new governor. The new governor is going to be in place in April. And at that point, that's been the expectation when it would start. But BOJ has been insisting even when the shift away from extraordinary stimulus started, it would be gradual. And when koda had his press conference last night, one of the things he stressed was, we haven't changed our forward guidance. We're still concerned that inflation may not be sustainable. We just have to rise. The spring negotiations start off to the first year probably in late February early March, that it was about financial stability, keeping and there's a big concern about the weekend, right? That that's been something that very unpopular with the public. So this is a step. But one thing to say, it's not clear that the regime shift has fully begun, but at the door is definitely wide open. It's clear that's where the BOJ is going
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Nathan Hager along with Tom Keane and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg surveillance that was the opening bell on Wall Street and stocks are opening this morning. Little change. The S&P 500 is up 5 points or a tenth percent, 4085 for the S&P level, the Dow Jones down 33 points down about a tenth percent at 34,562, the NASDAQ is higher by 5 points, little changed at 11,474. Ten year treasuries down four 30 seconds, the old 3.62% yield on the two year 4.32%. Nymex crews up 2.8% or $2 24 cents at 82 82 a barrel, comex gold is up 3% or $53 80 cents at 1813 80 ounce. The Euro 1.0504 against the dollar the yen at one 36.10. That's the Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Paul. Nathan, thanks so much for watching and presidents of the United States and France at The White House on the south lawn. They just promenade it in grass in front of assembled military and members of The White House. Now their Paul, what is that? Is that like American revolutionaries or French rocks? I don't know. It's very cool. Very pompy in circles. I mean, this is a French. You got to pull out your a game, I think. I mean, you go over to Paris and they're not going to, they're going to give you some good stuff. It is a perfect day on a December 1st in Washington to have these festivities. 30 days ago, we called them the smartest guy in the block. He is more so now. His name is James Glassman. He's a JPMorgan Chase. He's the lead economist for the commercial banking of a rather large bank. He has absolutely nailed the resiliency of labor in America. Jim Glassman, good morning. You start our jobs coverage. Do you still see a resilient employment picture for chairman Powell? I do. And I think I get to a question I'm getting from clients a lot is, look, my business is good. We see this in the labor market. But why did all this worry about recession? And it really comes down to how far do you think the fed is willing to push rates to shut the system down. And honestly, I think lael brainard, the fed vice chair, has been giving some really thoughtful speeches about this that help you understand why there's such a difference of opinion. Her comments are, look, demand is recovered. It's fine. But supply is recovering more slowly because of all these dislocations. And ordinarily, you would look through all that and say, you know, it'll take care of itself. There were at the fed. And it's still a theoretical worry is that supply is being permanently hurt by all these shots. And if so, that would explain why the fed staff tells you they think demand is too much it's too much about potential. But I really think that we're resilient because our economy is much more resilient. And I really think that we're beginning to see evidence of disinflation. And I think the fed is going to be a little more cautious. Part of the glass I'm going to claim, folks. This is years and years ago, Pauly, I think it was like before Truman and I think Jim Glassman folks did original research on what is happened to teenage employment. Let's go to the other age cohort, Jim Glassman. One of the theories is out there. We really don't know who retired or if they retired permanently in the pandemic. What are old people doing? What is the Glassman knowledge there? They try to they're probably disappointed by what retirement looks like. We don't really know how many people have dropped out. And I hear from a lot of clients that there are guys that retire, they're sort of creeping back and working part time arrangements and things like that. So we are in the middle of a major demographic shift. And I think that's one of the reasons why the labor force participation is down so much. And then I think, I think that's what's on the fed's mind. If more Americans don't want to work and we're retiring, or doing something else, well, that means the economy can't produce as much as it did. It could before. But I really think we're going to find when things normalize. It's going to feel a little more normal down the road. Paul, northwestern years ago, and this is a true story. You get to labor economics and you think it's like a joke, and then you realize you're probably not going to pass the exam. Blasphemy is there with a slide rule out. And so and he's going, I don't think he was the only one who passed that day under Gordon. I mean, western music. He is the Jim is the pride of a Big Ten, Tom. University of Illinois undergraduate. University of Illinois masters in economics. So no fun at all, but he doubles down on this economic so you can get a PhD at northwestern. So all in on the Big Ten. Jim, you're a JPMorgan Chase commercial bank. That means your bankers talk to every company in America and the world for that matter small. Midsize large corporations, multinationals. What are they telling you about a recession in 2023? Well, that's what's interesting. I mean, I learned so much from the guys who are running small businesses because they're having to think out ten years. The big guys, I mean, there's a lot going on. This is what they tell me. And I get this question a lot. I'm doing fine. Why is the world around me talking about recession? And that's why we're sitting here, we economists are sitting around arguing about, is there a recession in the horizon or not that depends on what the fed's going to do? There's been nothing that's happened so far that would make you think you're looking at a recession. And that's why I think it's interesting to me. Honestly, if there is a recession brewing, guys running businesses are going to it's going to take time for them to see it. So there could be a leg here. But I really think when I listen to them, it sounds to me like a lot of what you see in the jobless claims trends in the labor market data, things right and you look around you right now, it's looking pretty good. And worry is what's coming. Exactly right. And you think about it, Jim, I mean, the fed's been so aggressive in raising rates. As you're well aware, Jim, there's a school of thought out there that says, you know, these take time to work their way through the economy 6, 9, 12 months before we start to see the impact, wouldn't it be prudent for the fed to just kind of step back and pause here, is that a reasonable scenario? Or is it or is it just kind of a step down scenario, which is what the chairman is talking about? I think
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Nathan Hager along with Tom Keane and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg surveillance. They're ringing the opening bell this day before Thanksgiving, but stocks are holding steady before the latest FOMC minutes right now, the S&P 500 is down two points at a 4000 level, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is little changed up a point at 34,101, the NASDAQ composite up 5 points at 11,179. Ten year treasuries down four 30 seconds, the yield, 3.74% yield on the two year 4.53%. Nymex crude is plunging down 3.3% or two 72 cents at $78, 23 cents a barrel comic scold down two tenths percent or $3, 1751 80 announced the Euro 1.0332 against the dollar British pound 1.1979, the yen is a one 40.85 Bitcoin up 1.6% at $16,390. This red headline just crossing the Bloomberg terminal, the SEC to push bond and option brokers for better prices on trades. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Paul. Nathan, thanks so much. Greatly appreciate it. There is literally one person to speak to to prepare for Thanksgiving dinner. Anybody on global Wall Street knows that the onions get passed around in the cranberry sauce and the rest. And then you have to decide what was a damage this year in the two O one K what do you do with a bond market down 15%? And everybody knows it was uncle Fred's fault. Joining us now, the interview of the day, Fred lane, joins us from lane generational. And if caught Fred, the title says it all, generational around the Thanksgiving table in the most clumsy, frustrating year ever. What's the view forward? What do you do as you pass the mashed potatoes tomorrow? Well, I think first you should be grateful for living in this country, which is probably the best place in the world to build capital. Problems notwithstanding. So let's start with that. But I think the stepping back a second. I think Elaine generational we're big believers in growth. We're generalists. We have a preference for growth. Because simply over the long term, if a company isn't growing, your investment won't grow either. So basically, we look for companies that are seeking innovation to grow, addressable market, to increase market share to develop new markets entirely. That said, today's macro environment is really hearkens back to the 70s and the 80s for me. And I think it demands a much more flexible approach. Because the past 40 years is not going to be the next ten years. In our view, we are going to live with persistent inflation. In fact, if you go to the lane generational website, you can click on insight. This is a promo part of the shuffle. I want to make a comment, which is that we were prescient, and it brilliant's necessarily with respect to interest rates having increased. We were prescient with respect to inflation being persistent and we were prescient with respect to energy prices. All of those things are the fact. And Fred lane, I quoted Phil, I quoted Phil kare today, the giant of pioneer funds who said that there was a bright light to inflation. Does the Fred lane persistent inflation provide a revenue growth in revenue persistency that salvages quality stocks? I think the I think the answer to that will be that yes. And the reason for that is because I think the fed is going to finally have to relent and accept the fact that they can't compete against the fiscal policies of this country. And the rest of the world as well. So basically, fiscal stimulus is going to come back. It already is in place and the fed has been fighting with one hand behind its back. Because look, we continue, we've had employment benefits extended. In the face of a shortage of labor. So when you extend unemployment benefits, what do you do? You reduce the supply of available labor. We have 7 to 8 million males in this country who aren't working. That is not positive. So how do you deal with all that? You really have to deal with productivity. So the best places to invest in our view, our productivity, and that's technology. And the other places to invest are those aspects of the economy, energy commodities, precious metals that are going to be hedges against inflation. And we think actually going to show substantial appreciation. You have to invest in real assets in this economy. You can invest in in my view and monetary instruments. Most of the monetary instruments that you sensitive to inflation. All right, so Fred, so you, Tom Kean, and myself, we all grew up with that 60 40 portfolio. But I've got my bonds are down, double digits anywhere I look across the fixed Fred lane's acclaim as he wasn't doing 60. He wasn't doing that. Fred lane, nailed the idea of be careful of the comfort of bonds. It's absolutely so Fred. I mean, is fixed income? Does it still have a place in the modern portfolio? I think it has a place if you're using it if you're short maturities and using it as an ATM 5. But don't use your equity portfolio. This gets to the generational aspect with which Tom started this little segment. It's very important to distinguish between what you're going to need in the next year or two or three and what you're putting away for the next 5 years, ten years, 15 years, 20 years. And a lot of our clients and multi generational in their approach because they have enough resources to allow for that. But regardless, if you're 60 years old and you're going to live to be 90 years old or more, which is statistically the case, you really have to invest for the long term and you have to allocate a certain pocket for that and you have to basically grow that. And that's going to take care of just going to protect you against inflation. And the only way to do that is to invest in real assets. Fred, you talk about real assets. I mean, almost on a daily basis, Tom and I are learning about the crypto space that asset class, if you will, what's your take on it? You've seen things asset classes come and go, what do you make of just crypto in general? What are your clients asking you about? Well, we're a little bit unusual because we actually offer crypto to our clients, not many have taken us up on Ali, but it does in our clients actually own crypto. We do it off the fidelity digital assets platform. And we do that. We use that platform because of the security. Because they hold the coins physically in what's called cold storage. They have the pass keys. So you as the client of the holder of the crypto are not going to be responsible. And by the way, we only offer and fidelity only offers at present Bitcoin. It's the only cryptocurrency. It's the only one we believe
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stock index futures on the rise this morning extending their gains treasuries rallying as inflation in the world's largest economy fell sharper than expected, eating pressure on the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign, we checked the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg, right now the S&P 500 up 130 points, Dow futures are up 819 and NASDAQ futures have 488. Again, those are S&P futures that were up 129 and the Dax in Germany is up 2.6%, ten year treasury up one in 9 30 seconds. 3.92% and the yield on the two year 4.38%. Nymex crude oil, little change at $85 86 cents a barrel. Comb school at 1.7% or $28 30 cents at 1742 ten ounce. The Euro 1.0127 against the dollar British pound 1.1605, and the yen at one 43.71, and looking at Bitcoin up more than 10% at $17,360. And that's a Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul. Thanks so much. Adeline just out. Paul Sweeney translating for Tom Keane. Alameda research is winding down trading FTX CEO tweets. This goes back 5 years, Alameda research is a quantitative trading firm that's about, yeah, it's a Wikipedia. It's in Hong Kong, I guess. This thing is unraveling quickly. I have no idea. Paul swayne has no idea. No. Eddie van der waal, thank you. He has an idea and he joins us right now. Not in the specifics of the moment. And thank you so much for taking time off to London desk to join with us this morning. Extend this stuff, including a headline just out from Alameda research's winding down trading, et cetera. Extend that out to what it means for the rest of the Bitcoin blockchain, big bank market. How is your world today, Edward van der Walt? Absolutely Tom. You know what? I think, you know, we talked about this being potentially some sort of Lehman moment. I think we've got to be careful with that language because the contagion outside of the crypto space is fairly limited, but there is definitely other firms that we are finding out today that had exposure to FTX, right? The industry is becoming more and more intertwined. And that means that other funds suddenly cut either firm suddenly, can't get access to their money. And they can't get pay their clients and inclines panic and they start withdrawing. It's a mini bank run, isn't it? It's a bank run on the cricket currency. So Sequoia is visible and iconic Paul, you know more about the wonderful people from Menlo Park. And I do, okay, great. But are the banks are listeners know in London in New York worldwide Hong Kong are financial institutions exposed to this liquidity moment. Right, I don't think that they are yet, right? I don't think that this is becoming systemic in that way. But there is something brand new that we saw yesterday. In cryptocurrencies and invited markets, we saw risk appetite broadly, souring as a result purely of a cryptocurrency sell off. Now previously, there had been a correlation between stock prices and cryptocurrency prices, but that's because they were all driven by failed liquidity. This was the first time really that I looked at the wider markets and I saw the NASDAQ fall because cryptocurrencies fell. So they are becoming more integrated into our financial systems, and I think for that, for that reason, the SEC and other and other institutions will start looking very closely at. The triple average stock cash ETF does not own it. We do have some doge. Yeah, you wrote that down. All right, so Eddie, again, this is a market. This is an asset class. Let's call it crypto that's been searching. I think for some levels of legitimacy in some people's minds, this asset class is take a big step backward yesterday. It's always two steps forward, three steps back in the cryptocurrency space, right? They keep every few years after we have that massive boom when we get the bust we get consolidation. It's normal, right? It's a new industry. It is still the wild west, but it is becoming more, it's becoming it's becoming more mature. That's certainly true, because now you can take, you're going to hedge, you can hate your cryptocurrency exposure on the futures exchange. You couldn't do that three years ago. I can only talk to you with a beverage in my hand. Eddie, are you kidding me? We've gone from 65,000. I take your point. There's stability like recently at 20,000. And then something happens. Seriously, are there more, you know, you and Ed Robinson and all world class Bitcoin coverage? Do you guys just assume there's another something happens out there? Look, Tom, I'm really glad you don't have any exposure in that image fund of yours. If you don't like volatility because this is going to be a volatile space for the time being and that's not the stability that I'm talking about. What I'm talking about is a mature industry that has financial levers at its disposal, futures contracts, ETFs, you know, you can take exposure to the price without holding physical Bitcoin. You couldn't do that a few years ago. That's a financialization of it, but do you believe there's an underlying in Bitcoin tether and doge? You know, I think there's still a lot of questions to be asked about the use cases and whether that Bitcoin doge axis is the future of cryptocurrencies or whether we go that Ethereum path. I think that's still another whole debate, but we're not having that debate right now because everybody's distracted by the volatility. And I think that is damaging for cryptocurrency. You should come back in the 10 o'clock hour for a smarter conversation. Thank you so much. Paul sweetie, you've been patient to sit there while I ramble on with my questions, but I think a lot of our listeners are like me, where they're like, wait, do I own this? Exactly. Is this my John Tucker just wrote? Is this in my two O one K? Exactly. So Eddie brings up a great point, which is regulation. You know, when you get a fundamental breakdown in a market like this, IE an exchange, you know, effectively goes out of business, think about NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange, just for example, that has to get the attention of regulators. And then a question is, who's going to regulate this stuff? Is it Gary gensler? Is it a market? Is it an exchange? We use these words. I mean, think of these. I don't know. If the Art Institute in Chicago, they have the commodity exchange from a hundred years ago where they actually traded wheat. That's an exchange. That's an exchange. With all your money. And I'd say this folks with great respect for how the 10 o'clock Bloomberg radio hours really led on this is whatever's going under right now in exchange. I think it is. I mean, I think you had real capital being traded on a daily basis. I was going to say real assets are not real assets. I'm not sure exactly how you think about it. But financial instruments were being traded on this platform and to me that feels like an exchange and but it's been one that has not been obviously regulated like equity exchanges or commodity exchanges for that matter. Has there been a met Miller sighting? Yes, he made it back from the other side of the planet. He was here yesterday in good spirits and so he is back. He survived. We'll do a smarter conversation and 10 o'clock arrhythmic Miller and Paul Sweeney you're going to want to hear that across all of his country. Here's what you need to know. SPX is basically 36% in the last 18 minutes or so. We're up we're up 3.6%. 137 SPX points a Dow up 878 futures points. CPI less. We got to get the markets open. What is dedication? The thing that drives me
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"GA. Influential conversations from Bloomberg television. Here's Tom Keane. Thomas Michelle does chief executive officer of KBW. Keith britton Woods, of course, was Stifel, and is absolutely definitive on the pulse of American banking small mid super regional super super Michelle and the big banks as well. Time has showed when do they capitulate and realize the future is digital banking. Well, that's happening right now right in front of us. I think what was remarkable during the COVID period was how much digital engagement there was. And we've been watching very carefully to see if it would slip back after COVID came to it. Thankfully, it came to an end. That hasn't happened. Digital engagements up that's going to we think it's going to be good for consumers. It's going to take friction out of the fact that it's going to help with the expenses with these big banks and make them profitable. I know you're not involved in the Kroger Albertsons deal. Maybe it's a little bit outside your remedy, but there we are with finally a new risk free rate. Finally, we've got the math back to what it was. Are there zombie banks to be merged? We think consolidation will restart historically speaking when things are disorderly is one consolidation in banking slows down. Stock prices have been very volatile. A lot of concern about the economy. Here more interviews like this one on Bloomberg television, streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg mobile app or check your local cable listings. Markets, headlines, and breaking news, 24 hours a day. At Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg business app and at Bloomberg quick tape. This is a Bloomberg business flash. And I'm Karen Moscow, and futures are higher this morning, but S&P futures have 50 points down futures up 329 and NASDAQ futures have 184, the Dax in Germany's F 1.1%. Ten year treasury that'll change yields four 1% that yield on the two year 4.44%, nymex crude oils down a tenth of a percent or 11 cents at $85 35 cents a barrel, comb school down a third of a percent or $6 at 1658 30 announced Euro .9843 against the dollar British pound 1.1288, the N one 49 O 6 and Intel's mobilize says it sees its IPO to price between 18 and $20 per share according to a filing. Doctor Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In the meantime, let's oh, there you go. Read, come on in. So talk to us about the key points of this morning's monthly jobs report. So what you saw is you saw a payroll moderate to a still really healthy pace that showed this still strong labor market, but from the fed's perspective, you saw two things that they have really been hoping to see, you saw participation finally start to come back. And you saw the pace of wage growth monthly wage growth, you saw that subside a bit. And so when we think about this kind of the role that participation plays is, we talk so much about this imbalance in the labor market. And up until now, while the fed was really hoping that supply would come up and meet demand, it hadn't really been happening. So the focus really had to be on this tamping down demand. But when you see a big increase in the supply of workers like this, it's good news for the economy from the perspective of one more people are going back to work. But two, it also implies that you might not have to bring demand down as much to meet supply. And so you really saw this pick up in what we call the prime age workforce, which is those that are ages 25 to 54, and a truly remarkable surge among women. You know, you saw the participation rate a model this age group of women jumped to the highest since 2000, which is really remarkable when we think about the whole conversation we've had about how the pandemic has impacted women and mothers in particular. I heard Tom Keane talked that we're all
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"From New York City this morning, good morning with Tom Keane and Lisa Brown with Sam Jonathan farrow futures down hard off by 1.2% on a S&P on the NASDAQ off by 1.54 weakness Friday. Weakness this morning. Yields down about a basis point on a ten year two 96 €29 dollar down a third of 1%. We've had a break of parity a few times this morning right now right at parity one zero zero zero three and gas prices, the culprit here up 18% on the day on the month. The last 30 days, Tom up almost 80% over the last 30 days and clean through the peak of earlier this year. Yeah, that's right. That's a key thing right through the peak. I mean, it's got a life of its own and John. It's about three point X standard deviation. So you could say it's a jump condition move. But I think what Jordan Rochester was getting at Tom of namura mamet's ago, who planned the way it's looking for downside to 95 potentially on Euro dollar, is that perhaps Tom, we're not quite sure how to process these monster moves in European gas prices and what it could mean. For GDP destruction. Exactly. My destruction later this year. We've got to separate your folks and I get it that there's big figure discussions and foreign exchange, how to make money or, you know, if you're hedging how to not lose money, Jane foley at rabobank talks about that a lot. But John, a huge part of this is just what it indicates about per CAPiTA GDP slowdown and the agonies it's going to be out there and it's not just about one country or even one region when you fold it into what's going on in China. It's grim. Are the good news out of Germany in the last week or so Thomas that they've got their storage capacity. Got their storage levels up in a way that they were hoping for just a little bit earlier. But that is a small small ray of light given the darkness surrounding that economy going into yearend Tom. And Jordan was talking about the next phase of gas safe and effort out of places like Germany and Tom ultimately, it's demand destruction and maybe that's the point where we start to wake up to what Europe might be facing later this year. All we can do is look at the markets and we'll do that in economics finance investment international relations as we can right now with a good brief on what will greet chairman Paul at Jackson hall as Dana Peterson, chief economist at the conference board. She's extremely good at melding in the sentiment emotions with the actual math. It's out there. Dana, in your research note, you do a partition that I do all the time, which is the GDP equation, and there's a domestic component, and then there are foreign dynamics as well. Is the domestic component domestic final sales, whatever, is that in recession right now? Well, certainly in the second quarter, it was slightly negative. And so looking at the third quarter, the data that we're getting, certainly out of our leading indicators, which is falling for 5 consecutive months, the suggesting, yes, maybe that's also negative as well in the third quarter. And certainly we've already called for some time that there's going to be a recession in the U.S. at some point before we reach the end of the year. Our hard forecast is the fourth quarter. Maybe it's happening even right now in the third quarter. The strong dollar hurt our listeners and viewers. Well, actually, the strong dollar is great for bringing down inflation. It means we can import things much more inexpensively, but it certainly does hurt our exports, which are if exports are positive, then that's constructive for GDP. Simply because our products are just too expensive abroad. The good news is that the U.S. really doesn't export that much compared to other economies, but still in all a strong dollar is good for bringing down inflation. Dana, we're talking to sonata Desai earlier and she expects inflation to come down this year to all of 8%. It's not really that much of a decline. Do you agree that it's not going to really decline all that much in the United States? Well, we do have inflation softening. We figured that the peak happened in the second quarter, maybe that's true. But certainly when you look at the components, things like food prices, they're being affected by global activity, certainly very bad weather events. And that's something that's outside of the fed's control. Also, when you're looking at services, a big chunk of that is, housing, shelter costs, and even though housing activity is slowed, prices are still very elevated. And that shows up in grants both actual and imputed, but with a lag. So we could potentially still see some pressure on services going forward from housing. Data, you mentioned whether you mentioned food, I have to go there because nobody else will go there with me this morning. I've been talking about this all day, the drought, and the lack of some of the farming supplies that people have been talking about, how big of a concern is this in terms of food prices and what we could see in the fall? We're very concerned and indeed it's not just a U.S. issue in terms of droughts and lack of water. It's happening in Europe with very elevated heat and also in China. We're seeing these food crunches happening even in despite the war in Ukraine, which is also placed a lot of upward pressure on food prices. And so we're hearing from CEOs that they're going to continue to push through higher costs for food. And so that's probably going to continue to be a pressure that the fed really doesn't have much control over. Well, Dana, our headline today is out of Citigroup and United Kingdom with hyperbolic energy prices, parabolic energy prices I should say. And they're looking at 18% inflation Recalculate the conference boards inflation gas for our listeners and viewers. Do we stay at 8% inflation? Well, our hope is no, and certainly you see there's some underlying things that are starting to come off. Certainly when you look at autos, inflation for autos are coming off. Some of that's because people just couldn't find cars, but also because it's much more difficult to finance a car. And certainly goods, many people moving away from goods towards services, now the pandemic is more or less in the rearview mirror. And so that means prices are going to be coming off for goods. We're already seeing a lot of discounts. What's your blended number? Don't make it a mystery here. Chairman pause listening. What's your blended
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It all out. I'm spreading the money all around y'all because hopefully somebody will win. Hopefully I win. So nervous about this jackpot is unbelievable. If you do happen to match all 6 numbers, now you have two options. The $1 billion paid annually over 30 years, or you can take the lump sum of cash up front which is still nearly $650 million. Live in the Bloomberg interactive broker studios, this is global news, 24 hours a day on air, and on Bloomberg, quick take, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than a 120 countries, I'm Michael Barr in this is Bloomberg Paul, Lisa. Michael Barr, I'm taking a lump sum. How about you? I would take the lump sum, and then I would build a money for it, and then I would put in Spanish the blooms, and I'd swim and do the backstroke That's my plan. Out in the poconos. My favorite is that he planned this out that he actually have. I really detail, but you have the actual architectural pictures of that money for it that you're going to build. That's right. It'll look like an igloo. Igloo cash. In the poconos. Seriously. I trust me. I will. If I hit that much money, first of all, I would also buy some hot wheel cars every one because I used to love hot wheel cars as a kid. And I'd buy the classic ones. The classic ones is right. I love it. Reprising your childhood. Yes. I'll go buy hot wheels. The nice ones. Yeah, exactly. All right, Michael Barr, good stuff. Thank you very much. We appreciate that. One billion. That is a huge anyway. We'll have to see. Somebody's going to be a winner, and then will that person come into work on Monday? That's the question. Tom Keane, we'll see if he comes in Monday. I know he's out there today going to the local bodega floating up on the ticket. Look at DeMarcus here, kind of mixed S&P kind of I'm just called
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg Savannah's with Tom Keane Lisa Roberts and Jonathan farrow futures unchanged on the S&P and on the NASDAQ two Here's a call from Oppenheimer Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan upgraded even of the economy were to enter a recession we believe that the banking industry would handle it better than any recession in history We're not economists but let's talk about it But this is unlikely to go straight from labor shortages to recession given the large pullback in the stocks and modestly higher estimates the average bank relative PE multiple is now down to 52% So they're looking for some real upside here to those two names tongue And all that up because they're very very constructive on the markets They have been they participate in this bull market But John again it goes to the people adapt Companies adapt central banks adapt They're looking for 30% upside from here I will just say that the market is not picked up on high yields translating as better for bank stocks That's just not been a story over the last few months In fact year to date we've seen this massive move in yields and banks just haven't participated Slot it in is a two hour conversation that we can have this morning with Kenneth rogoff He's Professor of economics at Harvard He is the former IMF chief economist It's far far more than that Truly one of our thinkers of this moment we're in I mentioned professor rogoff to get a gopinath when I was at the IMF A number of weeks ago about this moment with foreign exchange and linking it into our greater global economy and of course our central banks Ken thank you so much for joining surveillance This morning Ken I want to go to a quote from 20 years ago I remember this paper the Carnegie Mellon the freshwater school Bennett McCollum and the team the once dominant ISL M framework from macroeconomic analysis has been sharply criticized excellent of it and the rest of it Nevertheless most undergraduate macroeconomics textbooks continue to feature IS LM models can take us from John hicks 1939 through what you and I were weaned on to where we are now Does any Central Bank have a convection a conventional theory in 2022 Well they still teach I saw them analysis and modern versions of it But central banks of course were not expecting this inflation They hadn't seen inflation for a long time They didn't know what would cause it They had some thoughts And I think if you're honest about the academic literature there was tremendous uncertainty about the Phillips curve about the long run neutral rate of interest So there's just massive uncertainty and then you get hit by the pandemic and now the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty is bigger than ever It was so important here folks and I speak of project syndicate I can't say enough as a font of wisdom led by Kenneth rogoff the laureate Michael Spence and Steve roach many many others but can rog you're right in your assay there on the synchronized global economy How synchronized are we How synchronized is America with China and with Europe Well I mean I think the risks of having a perfect storm where Europe is in recession because of the war China is in recession because of a failed COVID lockdown policy in the United States because the fed Titans too much too fast or however we judge it in response to inflation And that's all feed on each other I mean if China has a supply recession which is really what we're talking about that's going to feed inflation It's going to hurt demand in Europe Obviously if the United States goes into recession it hits financial markets all over the world I would say the risks have risen palpably that this might happen We could get things could work out well I said there's a lot of uncertainty but it's not hard to see all of these risks I mean I'd met in China It's hard to see what's going on but I feel they might already be bordering on recession So Ken do you think that already the risk has gotten too much the fed moving too far too fast at a time when a significant proportion of those on Wall Street think it's the opposite that perhaps they're poised to be overly dovish and not respond enough to inflation that surprises again and again to the upside Well I don't think we'll know for a while what they're going to do because they can raise interest rates a lot before they raise them too much I mean the idea at this well I think the idea that just to 3% would be enough is really unlikely I think they're going to have to raise interest rates to four or 5% to bring inflation down to two and a half or 3% And I don't know if that is something they're going to decide to do I'm not even saying that's something they should do We really have to see what's going on How deep the recession is They've dug a hole or to be precise the huge stimulus and march And I think a lot of the pressures on the fat and uncertainty from academics and research has dug a hole And it's not easy to get out of I mean there's no pretty picture here Ken let's sit on that for a minute but you think that in order to get down to a two and a half or 2% inflation rate they would have to raise rates four or 5% You don't know whether they should do that When will we know whether they should be opting for getting back down to that kind of target at some point in the next few years Well I mean you know it depends on what's going on what the costs are They could get lucky and some of the inflation turns out to be transitory enough so that they get a gentle landing It is not impossible but clearly a lot of things still that could go wrong escalation in Europe China getting worse and it's irrational COVID lockdowns And there's just a lot of uncertainty so I'm not going to say I know exactly what needs to be done but it's clear that things are way out of control Can rogoff you are part of our global interior confidence in the dollar from mundell Fleming to Jacob frankel to your work Maurice felt in the rest and on Rudy dornbush and we come to a new point is the dollar study of value now or is it secondary to what it used to be Oh I think the dollars more powerful than it ever was And yes Central Bank reserves have been diversified a bit although a lot into currencies that are sort of pegging against the dollar The dollar is dominant in trade and boy saying it's dominant in financial markets that's dominant and all kinds of transactions it's surprising I think it's actually by many measures more dominant than it was in the 50s when it was supposed to be going to currency Well in the 50s and let me digress then Ken this is so important on Germany right now in Europe is Germany held back by a memory of atmar issing economics and such I mean is Germany reticent with the war and Ukraine from another time and place is the dollar from another time and place I'm not quite sure what you're asking Tom I mean are you asking is Germany not moving more aggressively and Ukraine because it's concerned about deficits I don't think so I think it's much more the concern about escalation how much do you push Putin to push him over a cliff I think that's actually a very tough call and the Germans don't see it the same way that the American administration does Yeah I'm sorry my question there wasn't all that clear I fail I failed Ken when the Red Sox are in last place So I'm failing Right now Ken on Germany then in the Euro the challenge for Christine Lagarde given what I'm going to call the German reticence How difficult a moment is this for the politician Lagarde.
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"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tom Keane They start here by asking robini if he's in the no pain no gain camp I have that same view I mean inflation right now is at the level of not seen in decades break-even has suggested that information expectation are also rising There is a beginning of a price wide sparrow And the other thing that happens is that on top of everything else a tighter monitoring policy would slow down economic growth But now we're facing with a negative supply shock is coming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine that increases prices also slows down growth through global supply chain So that tradeoff becomes even worse before you put monetary policy into the picture because it's calculation shock It's a negative supply shock implies lower growth and higher inflation and everything else equal And then if you're doing them if you don't in terms of monetary policy if you care about inflation and anchoring virtual expectation you have to type that sooner and more But that implies that the growth slowdown is maybe even a growth recite It's more severe And since that you care about growth and then you normalize to slowly the risk of the anchoring inflation expectation So that policy tradeoff becomes even more severe No you wrote an article recently that I thought was really insightful Basically it's the new stagflation policy proof Where does policy fit in to the next year two years when a lot of people say recession is nearly inevitable as we try to come out of this period Well again you're very wide range of sets of policies your monetary policy or fiscal policy You have sanctioned policy You have a regulatory policy You could introduce price wage controls or indexation of wages to prices like we did in the 70s The trouble is that you have a bunch of policy tools that you have also a bunch of very contradictory goals Your goals are to have price stability and push down inflation is now significantly higher but you also have a Monday about maximum employment that goes against right now given them and enables by shot against that target You want to keep an interest rates low long term rates That's actually a formal mandate of the fed and of course higher rates that are tight and financial condition And then you want sanctions to punish Russia and deter other people from doing mistaken things So all these things imply that reaching an optimal policy equilibrium is very hard because suppose that you want to have more sanctions and you want to have more fiscal stimulus sanctions to punish Russia and stimulus to try to support the economic activity both sanctions and fiscal stimulus increase demand and increasing inflation pressure at the time where monetary policy is trying to instead achieve a lower inflation So there is almost a contradiction between the various policies So what do you see as the likely outcome of this as we do get this argument of whether a soft landing is possible I think this is going to be very very hard for the fed to achieve a soft landing Historically you have to tighten more than otherwise when inflation is high I think that the flood of the fed is not realistic having a fed funds at around 1.8 at the end of the year where core PC is going to be more like three to 4% means the monthly cost is not going to be tight enough And then you have two choices either you really tight and monetary policy because you are still behind the curve Right You need the policy and the 3% by the end of this year which gives you calls a recession or you win out because you're worried about growth and your worry about the backdrop Right Private and public debt is so high then when you race rates that you destroy the bank markets and whether you will have because of worries about growth or about that market that are connected and therefore you may end up not doing as much and the anchoring inflation expectations So you have to choose between recession or the anchoring inflation expectation You can not have a soft land No real quickly here I love to end this with you because it's always so constructive You are an I were in a bar once at Davos and we were talking about four standard deviation moves as being a shock German inflation is 7 plus standard deviations What does a society do with that Well as you point out they are already very standard deviation away semi black swan events on things like inflation not just in U.S. but also in Europe Of course we've had also these major geopolitical shocks they were And it's just the symptom of a much broader geopolitical depression In the next few years China in its effective allies Russia Iran North Korea and the U.S. and the west So I think that they were in Ukraine is only the first salvo of this Cold War two I mean the question is not whether it's going to be a Cold War or whether eventually Or within the west and China and so on So we are in a very difficult situation where extreme things are happening And like on the eve of World War I financial market by market did not pricing at all there is a major war And then it's not happened And that was no real robini CEO of robini macro associates with Bloomberg's Tom king and Lisa braunwyn.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg best on Bloomberg radio This is Bloomberg best I'm Ed Baxter And I'm Denise Pellegrini Denise pilgrim as you know is a cofounder of pimco and notably the author of I'm still standing An interesting to think about how he became known as the so called bam king to begin with And then what does he think about the bond market now Gross started his career at what became pimco later on in the vault operations there And here is what he told Bloomberg's Lisa Abramovich and Tom Keane about how he worked his way up and went to watch out for with bonds these days Let's listen in Well we had a $1 billion portfolio Pacific mutual did It wasn't pimple at the time And I just graduated from UCLA Anderson I had a master's degree I was clipping coupons not exactly in the mailroom clipping coupons And I said to myself wouldn't it be better to get out of the vault and into the sunshine and maybe you could trade these bonds you know back then there weren't computers IBM had a 360 et cetera but you couldn't really move them back and forth except physically And so most banks and most insurance companies didn't And so I thought that if I could take 5 million of that 1 billion portfolio and trade it and perform then we could get some clients and grow a little investment company called little investment company They grew quite large Bill You talk also about your start just even with education with $200 so into your pants going to Las Vegas gambling and getting $10,000 to pay for your college education Partly that gambling to the markets and how the game has changed How much has the game changed over your tenure Most states a lot Since when I started there weren't really liquid mortgage pass throughs This certainly wasn't interested in foreign bonds There weren't any tips inflation protected securities et cetera et cetera And so that and the evolution of financial futures which is probably the biggest change Introduce liquidity into the marketplace and it allowed for even a small firm at the time like pimco to basically trade and to make money Bill the reason why I ask is because we're in an era where a lot of people talk about the distortions in the debond market by the Federal Reserve or the fed is prepared to start moving back from some of their support from their bond purchases How much can the bond market really give the same kinds of messages as it did back when you started out clipping coupons Well certainly not as much There's more involvement by almost all central banks despite the pullback that you mentioned And interest rates are so artificially low that it's hard for institutional investors or even individual and private investors to make much of a difference Central banks control the market I think they're terribly wrong in terms of what they've done So low for so long and now we have inflation not necessarily because of those policies but probably in large part because of them And so it's just a difficult market You train to anticipate the central banks which has been relatively easy in the past few years because they haven't done anything But now they're about moving it's simply a question of what Powell and others do in terms of the policy rate Bill gross I've been out to Newport to see your Monroe trader on your desk of long ago and far away where you calculated convexity like no one that could do it And part of the as you mentioned the first mover advantage of pimco was intellect I want you to speak about what you and doctor Aryan did When the two of you got together and put intellect first for a buy side house every single buy side shop had to react and pattern themselves against what you and Muhammad invented Tell us how you put intellect first at your pimp co Well we did build a small company that a larger company a very smart people And it wasn't just myself and Muhammad Muhammad came much later Pimple was very much a success before Muhammad but Paul McCullough was very key in terms of fed policy and anticipating the Great Recession Chris Diana was very important in terms of bringing financial futures to the company There were lots of others that were innovators that were mild risk takers and putting together a group of Bond kings and later queens was quite important Was it challenges that you had later in your career And I don't want to get into the soap opera of it But Bill gross were the challenges that you had like it's so many other shops due to the decline in profitability of the buy side It used to be a cozy job billiard show up for two hours then you'd go pay cough golf trying to get your handicap up And that Bill the buy side every single buy side story is about lower and lower and lower revenue and squeezed margin Is that what you ran into later in your career That's what I was advocating in the bond market There was this extension of trading into ETFs into vehicles that charged lower and lower and lower fees I sensed that as a Sense of as a trend because simply as interest rates themselves lowered went down to 5 four three two one You know you couldn't charge 50 basis points on a 1% ten year treasury That's half of the half of the yield and it was almost an egregious type of situation And so fees became important It became important in terms of my leaving pimp code because the surviving contingent basically wanted higher yield products hedge fund types of products and I wanted to stick to the old total return formula that had done so well The total return formula is in a very tenuous moment simply because of where yields are and where inflation is expected to be Some people consider Jeff gunlock your successor when it comes to the bond king moniker You may disagree Others do the question I have is do you agree with his prognostications of a 10% inflation rate this year And the likelihood that the fed is vastly behind the curve Will the ladder yes 10% inflation rate is problematic It depends of course on commodity prices oil prices And the wage follow on But I do think inflation will be in a four to 5% category for the next several years And does that validate a ten year at one 80 or 85 it does not Is it mean that there will be a huge amount of sellers because of the lack of fed buying Probably not You know as we've seen in the last few weeks treasuries are a safe haven much like gold And so investors are stick at.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On the S&P on one line Tom Keane from the president of Russia For one line for the president of Russia and we're going to have good conversation on this through the SARS Please stay with us on that very informed conversation John as you mentioned there's an equity lift as well I see it across the safe havens I see it in some of the commodities as well I would respectfully suggest none of it matters John what matters is the full scale war and we need to see how that adapts to the president's speech this morning And some of the difference between what we hear from the Russian president and what we see the reality of it on the ground in Ukraine Here's the line from the Russian president There are certain positive developments as far as negotiators from our side informed me Vladimir Putin Tom earlier this morning Our team summarized moments ago our reporters across all of the continent of Europe and John the single thing that I think gives pause on a Friday morning when we're all worn out is the bombing of airfields 94 miles from live in the western Ukraine close to the Polish border At least this is just 50% of the story we need the other half We need the other half from the Ukrainians and we've heard from them It's a lot less optimistic at least we were here yesterday and the day before A lot of international strategists have also come on this show and said that they don't see as clear of an off ramp especially as a Russia does try to get additional troops and supplies to the troops that are out there in order to escalate further So given that right now we have to treat any news that we get with a bit of skepticism Yesterday the Russian foreign minister said Russia once serious talks with Ukraine and Belarus the Ukrainian foreign minister said this Russia 6 surrender Ukraine once surrender What's happened in between a change of interpretation a shift in substance Honestly what's the off ramp right I mean is it the idea of assuming a posture of neutrality as our story suggests that that message from Ukraine has helped Vladimir Putin get to a more conciliatory place or is there something else in the works but honestly if we're talking about this without a ceasefire and without any prospect of a ceasefire can we get anywhere Has anything changed We'll get into that in just a moment Futures kick higher at 1.3% on the S&P on the NASDAQ up at 1.5 in the bond market back through 2% on a ten year yield crude off session highs One O 7 62 we pulled back to positive 1.5% and Euro Lisa Euro dollar show and a bit of strength here on the Euro side one ten 11 up a quarter of 1% Reassessing what we heard from ECB president madam Lagarde yesterday coming out and talking about possibly accelerating the taper of the pandemic era purchase program We're all hoping for a diplomatic resolution Let's be clear The reason why we're being pessimistic or skeptical is not because we don't want it everybody wants this and European leaders are finishing finishing up a two day meeting in Versailles today They are trying to figure out a way out of this without torpedoing the European economy and while preserving some of the Ukrainian land as we deal with all of these images of destruction How much do they talk about accelerating their defense spending And how do they plan for an era with less Russia dependence At 10 a.m. in the United States we get the University of Michigan sentiment survey for the month of March We get a read on how much consumer sentiment took a hit in the wake of this conflict as well as what it did to the price of oil It already is at the lowest level Since 2011 how much further will deteriorate from here and at ten 15 a.m. President Biden is discussing further potential actions by the U.S. to hold Russia accountable for what it's doing in Ukraine Really how much does he use this as a time to message the need for Americans to absorb the higher costs of actually tightening the screws on Russia We're already seeing the inflation expectations for the next 5 years rise to the highest levels going back decades to three and a half percent If you take a look at break-even rates how much can we attribute this to higher gas prices How much are we looking at a very different regime especially as even the likes of treasury secretary Jenny Ellen John have come out and said honestly we're going to have to expect a very uncomfortable rate of inflation over the next 12 months a different tone really than what we've heard from her in the past Lisa thank you team coverage begins right now with Bloomberg's and Marie Horton at The White House Maria tadeo in Versailles Let's go through this calmly and carefully Maria the line There are certain positive developments as far as negotiators from our side and formed me the words of the Russian president mama Suga go Your interpretation of that from Vladimir Putin Well Jonathan this is a complete whiplash from everything that we've heard from the Russians until now Yesterday morning the foreign ministers had a lab was still denying a war in Russia The Ukrainians said they had no interest in talking about a ceasefire and this.
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"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In the February and John tons of economic data We're going to reframe 8 35 Friday morning Look how below on payrolls the range is still wide It always is at the moment two 50 Positive all the way down to 400 K negative What it changed the conversation around the fed Given this is an induced slowdown And on the juice slow down Tom Keane you said the asterisks next to that number will be shining bright this Friday It's going to be fascinating to see Well this horn be coming up here in a moment John what I think is so important is the backdrop of this and I'll lead with ferocious with a 1.5% GDP in this present quarter We're doing this within slowing economic growth That changes the dial I'll lead with banks of America Tom They're looking for a hike at every meeting this year 7 hikes three to year end a peak in the fed funds rate two 75 to 3% That's the outlier call at the moment Tom The direction of travel though said been moving in that direction The center of gravity 5 hikes right now Tom for 2022 That's the call on Wall Street Lisa what's so important here then is the mix here around the pandemic we see cases rolling over hospitalization rolling over maybe deaths to I'm getting some constructive tone And from strategist it's a fairly constructive tone within a lot of different angst It's fairly constructive but on the edges there is this growth concern that we've been talking about for a couple of weeks now And I keep going back to the yield curve Is this an instructive tool of something like the U.S. economy can't really withstand much higher rates the longer term 'cause that seems to be this suggestion Is this still a telling tool or has it been corrupted by some of the fed policy And frankly the international policy at least as a pure read on what's going on Tom John what's going on in the spirit We're going to interrupt the program right now This is so important And it's about the cloud and how Apple adapts to it Thursday We've got Amazon in the cloud Microsoft was stellar earnings X number of days ago And here's Eliot stepping in at this moment as suggested over the weekend and they take out Citrix which we use at Bloomberg as part of our cloud technology People are still deploying cash ton even with the threat of higher interest rates They're getting to work and maybe in some cases that's why they're getting to work because some of these valuations have come down so much We talked about the Microsoft deal They're basically paying for that acquisition what the company was worth Tom 12 months ago Correction It's life goes on and you see that within the date of this morning the vix from 32 John down to a 28.87 more constructive in the last two days I keep smiling because you let that comment from Lisa slide She used that word corrupt They've corrupted the yield curve Lisa thought I did not miss that I know that was so impressive That's corrupted the yield curve Wow wow wow You turn it for framed it I'm saying has been corrupted by policies Maybe it's basically let's be clear It's a very strong word The idea here is have we distorted some of the traditional signals Yeah And if we have then what does that mean in terms of this guessing game that we've been talking about all morning I've been struggling the word choice that's so erupted in It's Monday The ten year right now one 79 63 Equities come in On the S&P down four tenths of X.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A bit of great solutions for last mile delivery small parcel things like that Why not a motorbike Well this is a fully enclosed cabin We made a niche right between micro mobility which our motorbikes and scooters and cars And part of this it's classified as a motorcycle It does Best Buy there but you have power windows power brakes You get in eating cooling air conditioning heated seat back up cameras So it's everything you could expect from a vehicle Highway speeds 80 miles an hour a hundred miles of range It just gives you a lot more flexibility in all kinds of weather That you might not get out of a two wheel vehicle And then it gives you all the efficiencies that you would get on before wheel So how many been delivered today We've got over 60 vehicles that we've delivered to consumers and fleets And that was electromechanical CEO Kevin pavlov with Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde All right now let's get to some of the bigger vehicle makers because Ford is doubling capacity for its battery powered F one 50 lightning to 150,000 trucks after getting a lot of interest in the pickup And Ed Kumar goji is president of the Americas and international markets for Ford is all this is going on And this particular pickup starts at just over $39,000 Tells Bloomberg's Tom Keane and Lisa Brahma wits It's not the price that has people so excited.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"If they're shutting down cities you're gonna have this sort of spike and then pull back and spike and pull back The kind that we felt in the United States suddenly you get back in China and of course that means that we're going to continue to have supply chain challenges across the world in 2022 but also means that inflation has the ability to persist longer than you otherwise would have expected In Bremen there the president of Eurasia group and chief zero media from New York City with Tom Keane and Lisa Brown with some Jonathan Ferro your price action close to all time highs in the equity market at 15 on the S&P 500 futures positive a third of 1% and NASDAQ 100 futures up two tenths of 1% And in the bond market Tom another lift for treasury yields after yesterday's move of 12 basis points were hired by three basis points to one 65 95 on tens in the United States just a note for you A news conference taking place a virtual news conference at 5 p.m. I assume UK time for the British prime minister Tom On the pandemic back to take place a little bit later You think we're going to see a few of those in the coming days as well no doubt from The White House as well Right now and as well understood as we saw Ian bremmer with Elizabeth economy yesterday on China that doctor bremer like a magnet tracks qualified people to the Eurasia group to generate their top ten risks for any given year This year's nuanced brilliant list includes Iran We get an update from Henry Rome who is with Eurasia group Henry Rome of Cambridge Henry Rome of his journalism at the Jerusalem post gives us the immediacy of the moment Henry Rome what I know is there's worries about drones in the air flying in I believe it's to Baghdad in danger Give us the immediate right now of drones and the danger of drones from Tehran Sure Well good morning and great great to be here again I think what we've seen over the past day or so with the anniversary of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani of course from a couple of years ago The Iran backed militias in Iraq flying these explosive drones at bases that house U.S. forces Now I think the real risk here is the ever present one that you get U.S. forces killed or injured in some of these attacks and then pressure on the Biden administration to retaliate to try to show that there's a cost for this kind of activity Now there's a lot of ambiguity with drones like these about whether they're ordered from Iran or whether these are the actions of the local militias But I think the concern overall is real Henry help us with our stereotypes we are all molded certainly of my generation by 1979 and permanent damage of our relationship with Iran Give us the update What is the number one thing Americans get wrong about Tehran and all of Iran You know I think the number one thing is that despite that image kind of seared in our collective memory the Iranian leadership today is quite rational in the sense of making cost benefit calculations when pursuing its policies They might not have the same kind of way of looking at things that we do certainly in a different ways of assessing costs and benefits But when you ask questions like why and under what circumstances would they ramp up their nuclear program why or under what circumstances would they seek a nuclear weapon What is their policy around the region I think it's easy to get caught up in a lot of the rhetoric which is fiery is explosive but I think when you look at the actions at least over the past several decades here you see a pretty consistent through line of a fairly sober weighing of costs and benefits And I think we're seeing that today with the ramp up on the nuclear program and the fairly imperiled nuclear talks Henry there's an issue of this being a regional problem And then there is the more geopolitical risk that you're Asia group seem to identify in their latest report of risks When you talk about a potentially less calm year for Iran where there can be a conflagration of some of these tensions what's the broader read through to the geopolitics of 2022 Yeah so I think we were a bit lulled to a false sense of security last year given the kind of on again off again nuclear talks I think the real key to stability in the region are these negotiations And then negotiations aren't going well I think the real pivot point here will be likely over.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Has started on the takeoff stage now in years where maybe China was ten years ago So it's got a long way to go and it's going to be a long run Of course they're going to be corrections along the way So you have to be aware of that But otherwise India is really on a run It's going to do very very well My Mobius there on emerging markets as always on India specifically from New York City this morning Good morning Tom Keane Lisa brammer and Jonathan Ferro your equity market shaping up as follows We're down 6 with negative attempt of 1% After an 8 day winning streak on the S&P it's been a while since we've seen some red on the screen The S&P 500 just a little bit softer Yields come in three basis points The race for the fed is on welling to hear something from The White House at some point in the near term One 46 19 on tens and your pre market mover of this morning and maybe you know what of the week General Electric GE splitting into three healthcare power and aviation the years that Jack Welch wow behind us now This stock is up by more than 7% in the premarket some one 16 ten A premier now and without question or global Wall Street interview of the day Joe levington joins us director of credit research from Bloomberg intelligence and folks This is different than the rah rah of the stock market equity sell side This is about really looking acutely at any given industrial company is doing Joel levington is expert When you split off three companies even over timeline the PR the spin and all that who gets the liabilities who's gonna grandfather the headaches here Yeah they're all gonna get some of the liabilities Tom My guess is if they follow the Tycho playbook which seems to be what they're doing in terms of the spinoff what you'll wind up having is the new companies and the energy company and the healthcare company will issue debt back and use the proceeds back to the parent to pay down some of the liabilities but the aerospace company at the end of the day will wind up with the majority of the liabilities because it's the company that can handle the most liabilities You rode 15 days ago or maybe it was 20 days ago about the idea of a piece of this train wreck being junk junior subordinated paper This is on the aircraft leasing And I get it's a small part of it but I think a lot of our viewers and listeners would be surprised that an adult like you is writing about junior supported aid in garbage Well that's true but GE part of its capital business has a junior preferred debt That is across over credit meaning that it is junk on one side from the readers and investment grade That is likely to remain investment grade in the future Joel going forward this will be a tale of many different bonds I'm sure as we parse out what the capital structure of the new entities are I am wondering though from a larger perspective whether the de conglomeration that we saw over the past three years has shifted in light of what happened with the pandemic the idea that size actually helped with respect to shoring up supply chains and other types of resources Well Lisa you're totally on point and size definitely matters but it's also the kind of size that you have Here when you have so diversified businesses where you really can't leverage the technologies to a great extent it's not the same as let's say a Roper Technologies where it's a software based platform across different verticals So here I think it's clearly a case for making it into three unique companies I would also say it makes my eyes move towards an Emerson Electric or 3M where you might not have the same kind of consistency in their portfolios and maybe those are portfolios that might be next to see breakups So Joel do you think that the reaction that we're seeing both in equities and frankly even in bonds to the split up of GE will actually encourage some of the separations whether it's 3M or Emerson Without a doubt I think people like having straight plain vanilla stories with a growth outlook that they can understand It's never really great in a diversified conglomerate because in that case there's always some companies that are doing well and other companies that aren't doing as well So I think you will see more breakups happen in the future How does Amazon 20 or 30 years out with their different businesses not become what you just described Well I guess that'll become an issue once Amazon's PE is S&P 500 level Same thing with Tesla right Tesla has a variety of different businesses inside of it But I think when the markets are hot for your stock it doesn't really make a difference Protect you Yes Exactly Super instance I'm gonna stay on Amazon is a real company and some people would say Tesla's not a real company but on something like Amazon which is like Jack Welch pre ML right now How do they avoid in your debt expertise to run into the challenges that we saw with GE The market is always about growth And as long as you have growth you'll be okay It's this is the story They got buried because of growth at all costs They did and that's really what happened right Because you had during the ML days and the Jack wall stays the build up of the capital business which became two risky two levered and with lower quality assets And that's really where the problem started When it comes to the big industrials chill just sort of to wrap this all together Have you rethought the breakup of any companies the potential breakup I should say as a result of what we have seen with supply chain issues what we have seen with respect to pricing power when it comes to the bigger companies I really haven't Lisa but what I would say is that there are a lot of diversified industrials out there where I think you have to question do the businesses make sense together To me something like Emerson Electric does not belong together where you have it a Home Depot type business where you're selling a home consumer goods as well as an automated business where you're dealing with chemical petrochemical companies It doesn't really come together I think Stanley Black & Decker is another situation 3M I think also gets put into question And I think there are shareholders and bondholders need to take notice because as you can see with GE it's going to work out pretty well for them today in terms of how people are going to think about them as a streamlined entity Joe before you run can we talk about how wrong we all were on Tesla credit I just want to bring that out quickly We haven't spoken for a while What a run It's been just the equity It's been massive and it certainly has played out well They are following many of their EV peers in getting rid of all the debt on their balance sheet They just have a little bit left And right now if you look at the CDS on Tesla it's trading inside of companies like salons which is a triple B minus credit So the corporate credit market has gone from thinking of it as almost dying about three and a half years ago to being worthy of investment grade quality John can you imagine Joel lovington and Lisa abramo at a bar having a conversation You're talking about how your credit Tom We were just down to its knees with happiness When Lisa walks in and everyone goes I'll have another one There's a flattering Making that a dumpling Can we talk to 7 year auction Thank you Wow love blow Tom Tends to be TK Ten $39 billion of Ted's $25 billion of 30 years tomorrow I'm sorry the reach here of reginald Jones who got all this started and this goes back to my youth and a company called Lin tempo vote at LTV And I'm sorry John conglomerates just don't work I mean what can I say I think the Amazon question serious Well hold on a second Tom That was the view three years ago And then suddenly at the end of last year people were saying well actually maybe some of these conglomerates make sense if they do have pricing power The key is as Joel was saying what's the synergy I hate that word I know you this is breaking news we got John I'm sorry peloton introduces strength training TV devices Camera Nice Quick I think it's fair to say industrial conglomerates don't work Maybe Yeah I think that might be Yeah but I think being more specific is important here As always features in four 20 years when we're doing this Things I thought could never happen for me in a punk band What We are lady parts a new original comedy.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"tom keane" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Worldwide good morning to old Tom Keane Elisa bramson Jonathan Ferro your equity market positive a quarter of 1% on the S&P 500 with your job's number Let's bring in Michael McKee Morning Mike What are you gonna bring me in but I can't bring you the jobs number yet because just came out now as I pop this up 531,000 is the number so a significant beat for the jobs numbers about 81,000 more than anticipated and certainly much more than the 194,000 reported in September The unemployment rate goes down by two tenths of a percent to 4.6% So that is the lowest post pandemic number of that we have had and it is good news for the Federal Reserve chairman The number that everybody wants to see is the participation rate and that comes in at 61 6 So that is unchanged from the month of September and it doesn't suggest that people are coming right back into the labor force Employment to population ratio which some people follow 58.8 that goes up a tick from the previous month Looking at unemployment rates for the various minority groups black or African American is at 7.9 that's no change Asian 4.2 no change Hispanic or Latino goes down to 5 9 from 6 three so a big move there So those are the immediate moves in these numbers that we're looking at that the fed is putting a lot of emphasis on And then looking at the establishment data in terms of who got jobs where the manufacturing numbers come in up by 12,000 Up by 60,000 for manufacturing constructions up 44,000 So some significant hiring in those categories which are generally higher paid Let's take.