23 Burst results for "Tom Kean"
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tom Kean back on Monday. Lisa the equity market doing Okay unchanged on the session right now on equity futures. It's the bond market that gets your attention. The worst week for 10 year Treasuries going back to early June. Yeah, although still very low rates, But still, it seems like there is at least a little bit of a concern Creeping and about the record bond issuance from the U. S government question is whether this is a momentary blip, and today people seem to be treating it as a buying opportunity. Economic data in 29 minutes, so far, so good this week. Lisa just in terms of expectation, Certainly not in terms of the absolute number, but claims yesterday positive relative to expectations. I stress relative to expectations hotter, hotter than expected as well, perhaps fueling that move in Treasuries and not just the supply story. Yeah, but we've had this conversation over and over again. This idea of lagging indicators the historical aspect of some of this data it a fast moving pandemic where you get You know, states re shutting down and people losing confidence, and that's why people are looking toward the July consumer spending data, for example, showing the last retail sales gain before some of these unemployment benefits run out and the real economy it's done. I'll put him on this program earlier this week, and he said. The survey week a week earlier a week later, could be the difference between plus a 1,000,000 negative a 1,000,000 in the payroll report. Lisa that speaks to how quickly this is moving and how difficult it is to use the economic data to paint a full picture as to what's happening around us. Not sure of stock investors were really using the economic data to get a sense of how to invest anyway, though I've got to say John O. Well, I mean, come on, we get bad. What does that mean? I had a good print. What is that? You started on credit. You just move into equity now? Well, I'm starting with the point. Being. The economic data has not been translating into market responses, whether in credit or in equity, John and I think that that's also important this idea that no matter what happens, there's faith in a backstop somewhere. What's that phrase about poking the bear? You poked the bear The bear the credit, Bad, just anger. Let's get to the price action this morning. The data coming in around about 27 minutes time we shape up as follows. In the equity market Equity features come down three negative, 1/10 of 1% Total Snow's just a few inches away from all time highs and P 500 drama February 19th But we were talking about a different kind of V shaped recovery was all about how China would come back online quickly. The rest of the world would be okay. The V on February 19th was very, very different to the V paper discussing in August in the bond market years coming into basis points, 0.7% is your yield on a US 10 years Slap bang in the middle of the Post Co vered range the lows 50 the highs 90 in the effects market Euro dollar 1 18 0 Joining us now on this market I'm pleased to say is David Baylin City Private bank chief investment officer David There are plenty of angry bears out there and for good reason. Economic data is really not great, but the performance of the market has been something else. What you take away. Let's put everything in a little bit of context. Today we have $18 trillion worth of getting zero, so everyone is seeking yield. And of course, this has been an extraordinary rally in the bond market. That's the backdrop..
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tom Kean back with us on Monday, Lisa within 2/10 of 1% of all time highs and P 500. Try to find out why I can't. I mean the narrative Basically being momentum begets momentum. Tech names got beat up so much that now others Are catching up a little bit. But, John, I am struggling to understand the why. Behind this since February 19th the average stock still down by what down 6%. Lisa it has been one portion of this market, which is absolutely ripped through 2020. The vast majority still struggling. Yeah, and this is the question, right? Are we at the phase of recovery where you can go into more of the cyclicals, given the fact that you saw a bit of an increase? In a treasure yields Treasury lt's coming back down today We are going to be getting data, though, and the data is not expected to be that great today. 8:30 a.m. One thing I'm watching is the jobless claims. I know you are to John. The US jobless on continuing claims still expected to come in over 1,000,000 Americans piling for jobless claims. In the past week, even though it's expected to come down, still incredibly high. Next that we're looking at a 10:45 a.m. A conference from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Still no deal Stalemate in Washington Road to nowhere, Lisa really seriously and the road to nowhere is paved with a lot more pain. The each week that this goes on is more pain. One PM US selling more debt, $26 billion of 30 year notes. This is another record issue in strong demand all around, which has given a lot of investors some comfort that the baby isn't going to dry up. Even with the record sales, let's get to the first day morning price action. Shall we started with equities equity futures this morning looking like this on the S and P 500 against the bond market That's doing okay Equity futures unchanged on the S and P 500. We come down just the runabout two points in the bond market for day Sal off a little bit of stability Yields in a single basis 20.20 0.67% on the FX market. Euro dollar. 1 18 48 a half of 1%. Lacey, You mentioned the debt issuance 30 year issue coming up a little bit later today, the supply has been taken down. At a decent measure. Demand is doing alright, three year yields on Tuesday were sold at a record low, So we had three year issuance with record low yields yesterday was near that the tenure issue and today's 30 year note sale will bring total three day issuance to $112 billion just to give you some sense. Of how much supplies coming online you 10 year Treasury yield this morning. 0.67% on a 10 year that supply coming up a little bit later joining us now turning to our cannon called General Equity strategist. He joins us on the phone sounded great to hear from you, sir. You more preoccupied with what's going right? What could go wrong Suggest back in 2009 I remember I was sitting in an industrial industrial company conference and they were going through multiple slides of what their contingency plans for. This was in the summer of 2009 so the market was up 50%. But you were still kind of in the grip of the great financial crisis, and people were looking at each other saying, How can the market be up? So much so that this conference this company's talking about what their contingency plans on what could go wrong? If when it goes wrong? I raised my hand and I said, Have you guys ever got a contingency plan of war could go right. And the What could go right has always revolved around credit. And I was reading Ah Bloomberg story. I'm going to look away from the camera for one second, she'll just so I can read a little bit out of the story. Alphabet. Chevron Chevron price to two year bond yield yesterday with a 20.333% coupon. You had on the high yield side. Aluminum packaging Company Ball Corp sold 1.3 billion of 10 year notes at 2.875% high yield. 2.75% So you go into an economic and market kind of catastrophe or problem when you have a need for money would limited or no access to it. Clearly, that's not the case you sent full of the credit market. Keep bonds stocks Yeah, that I listen to guys printing the money Keep telling us their game plan. They're they're not even thinking about thinking about thinking about it. I mean, you could go on and on about not thinking about raising race, 2020 Tony It's for kindness to 2024 potentially for the rest of my career. Unless you get a major surge of inflation that's sustainable. Remember the 10 year inflation break unions are still in about 1.6%. They want core inflation at an average of two per cent. These guys are gonna have their foot on the pedal until the fourth for the foreseeable future. And as a result of that the need for returns and pension plans is creating a demand equation as Lisa pointed out, not just for Treasuries and is that Bloomberg Story pointed out first. For investment grade and speculative credit. Tony When does the real economy matter? Well, so this is an incredible time, Lisa, because what we have is this access liquidity we've never seen before. Coupled with it the same time. If you look at the always CD, which is the Organization of economic cooperation and development, they tracked 37 countries as of the end of June data, and it works with a six week lag. So it's really mid May A T end of June They were saying that there were zero of the 37 economies that were showing positive or above average compass leading indicators that pivoted to 90% month to month. So we have an economy that has largely been in collapse that is just beginning to pivot higher. Whenever that's happened in the past, you've had a sustained economic recovery. So it's really important that we don't need a certain incredible surgeon economic activity because that would that would change the whole dynamic of credit. You want what we're getting with? Well, a little better than we're getting, especially for the small business is the people that need the money. You are beginning to get that inflection higher. Listen, you've got to concede to some degree that the economic story is beneath the index. With Tech stocks. Absolutely riffing. I think the tech sector up about 24% here today, The K B W Bank index is still down around about 30%. That's not because the economy is doing well. It's because there is discretion. Certainly that is beneath the surface of some of these indexes. Hard pressed to find the discretion, though in a junk bond, yielding 2.875% hard to find the discretion in a record amount of issuance across the board in more junk bond issue, and so far year to date than all of last year, Tony Looking forward, there is a question here. How sustainable this is especially in light was a pretty Serious potholes. For example, there is no deal in Washington, and time is ticking and the pain is deepening. Can you imagine Washington is not going to come to a deal and they're going to let the only purpose of government is to support people and they're gonna let everybody fail. So our underlying assumption is they will get pain is the motivate motivator for change and growth. They will get enough. Paying the feed back loop will become negative enough that they will come to a deal. But again, we've got to separate what is good or bad right or wrong. Those don't matter. Hey, I frankly, I don't think this incredible use of Det ultimately is going to be a good thing. But that doesn't matter. It is So when I try to guide our institutional clients and and wealth management clients overseas is try to get by what intuitively seems good or bad, right or wrong and just focus on what is we've had almost won $2 trillion of corporate credit new issuance..
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tom Kean back with us in a few days back on Monday, I understanding is moving. He's in the middle of a move right now is not a vacation. I should characterize it. A little bit more specifically, he is moving up a single floor. Yeah, evidently, that's incredibly difficult. Actually, I can attest to testify that it is, I will say, I think he also might be selling some of that jewelry that he bought in a Russian funds to fund the move. Yes, I'll pay single floor. People think I'm kidding. This is the truth. This is wise off for the next three days. Tom's moving apartment. He's going to the floor above him. He could tell you all about it on Monday. Let's get to the price action this Wednesday, Shall we? Good morning to you all we bounce back on the equity market up 25 on the S and P. We advanced 3/4 of 1% in the FX market. You're 1 17 64 euro dollar coming back just a little bit still off that 1 19 level we've reached in the last week or so in the bond market. This is where the action's being. The activity yields up by two or three basis points this morning. 0.67% of supply coming through the wait. Lisa mentioning Freeze yesterday tens today's thirties tomorrow, better data in the mix as well. I just wanted Lisa is this evidence of some supply jitters? In this bond market and what is typically a quiet month of August. It's a really good question. A lot of people saying that the Fed is going to come in and buy if we see any kind of increase on the long end, there also was a question of how much people are pushing back against negative really yields The idea that inflation expectations are starting to creep into the bond market as we are seeing real Yale's start to increase a little bit, John Hard to know what the dynamic exactly Let's get a robot. You shall we investigate chief fixed income strategist and head of a multi sector strategy rubbed orjust right now Great to see you. Robert's always any evidence of some jitters around the August supply. Great tonight. Great. See you. And thanks for having me a cz. You point out Bond yields risen last couple of days and we are getting supply now, But I think the more important thing here is that we're starting to see see some signs of growth, continuing the recovery continuing. You importantly, we're starting to see sort of a peak of infections in the U. S so total daily infections of Pete. We see countries like Sweden show of ghost, fairly substantial decline and affections, and I think the market's just Sort of looking through this and wondering. We got the vaccine news potential vaccine news yesterday, wondering whether this recovery might have more legs than I originally anticipated, robbed many people going back to early tune. That was the last time the rotation trade really, really paid it out. And what we saw in the bond market topped out at about 90 basis points on a 10 year in early June and faded it many people will be looking at this move in the last couple days and wondering whether they should fade that too. What'd you tell them? I think the I think the action is really going to be in really yield. So I think you know, the other important thing that's going on here Jonathan is that the Fed is really committing itself to this kind of long term inflation averaging policy. What That means, we think is that'll come with. Essentially that comes with the sort of aggressive for guidance to say, Hey, the feds not going to do anything for quite a bit of time And so they're going that will sort of peg. The short end of the yield curve and well should put a bit of a cap on the top end of where yields could go so they might go higher, But we're not expecting a massive Spike higher and we really looking in real yields, where probably the action should be for continued rally and really yield, So if you want to fade this market I had faded, really yields rally in real yields. Does that mean that they're going to go more negative? Yeah, that could go more negative about. Hello. How negative content year. Real yields go. Well, you know, I think, Henry, really lt's could there just just about 1% right now. You know, I think we could probably see 10 year real yields, you know, go another 20 to 30 basis points. Lower asleep, if if inflation expectations pick up To you know, historically where they've been Because people buy into what the Fed is saying Somewhere close to 2% you could see you know real yields 30 to 50 basis points lower in there now, so basically another way of expressing this is investors will see inflation taking up over the longer term. Yet they'll still buy bonds, even at these very low yields because they're believing in that fed backstop. What do you do? As a fixed income investor. If you're basically losing money investing in Treasuries, where do you go to hedge against this dynamic? Well, so the option and fixing on his credit and you know, we we do like credit assets because the same factor that if the Fed, not the Fed, committing to staying easy into to this sort of long term inflation averaging means that they will not be preemptive and raising rates. And if you look at the credit investor, one of the things that's really hurt you in the past is the Fed being aggressive and raising rates. So you look at 2018. You look in 2013 with Taper tantrum. You look at 2000 for All all of these all of these periods, you know, you've got the fed raising rates or threatening to raise rates, and that caused a kind of correction risk markets. So if the Fed is not going to be aggressive in sort of pre empting inflation increases that is relatively positive for credit. So you know, we still we still, you know, look for credit investments to do well, Robert keep asking this question. And I hope you give me a good answer What would lead to Y two spreads? Take what you need to say. Here right now. You know the quitting at the current time, Jonathan. The technicals are so incredibly positive you have hall has prevented all this sort of pre limit sort of. Funding has been done by corporate a very aggressive new issue counter that nuisance has dropped off. You saw companies draw their lines down. You've seen a tremendous amount of credit put in the system, so there's there's there's You know, the technicals are very, very positive right now for credit markets. I think we've already had a record August laser supply. Just checking the day. It's August 12th. I mean, we've already had a record August and we don't even two weeks into the month. Supply lakes that just hasn't rolled off in the way people thought it would come again to the summer..
"tom kean" Discussed on Newsradio 950 WWJ
"Getting sick Bloomberg's Tom Kean Francine lock was spoke with Lawrence our Johns Hopkins University a lot of cases of Minton middle aged Americans who have these comorbidities for also being younger people as well and so I think the early data that that we saw that this is all affecting the elderly with comorbid populations is not necessarily true we have a wide age range in our population we have a lot of essential workers who have been working a full time we have a very large spanning population that we're serving at Hopkins right now and I think that's true in many cities across the country the new year the city the idea that in certain geographies were going back and yes the younger people going back and all that when you see younger people trying to get back to what we knew do you feel like there is a greater risk because they think the only one that gets the virus is seventy five and over I think that early messaging about it only being elderly didn't help I think we saw young people resistant to social distancing resistant to some of the other public health approaches that we use and we you know they were they exactly like you're saying we're still going out they were still interacting socially and and I think we're seeing the effects of that that resistance to adopting these measures I think that's what we're seeing right now I also think that these people are they are part of the essential workforce sourcing health care workers for C. L. across the country working people from the meatpacking plants from farm from food processing centers and and they are younger folks as well Lawrence are talking a little bit about this magenta vaccine that then we had reports yesterday that eight it just didn't give us enough information to me whether it was going in the right direction are we going to have news shows like that more regularly it's not uncommon for these companies to put out press releases but usually they have data attached to them this report showed that the the the people in the study eight people that they had conducted a full review of had neutralizing antibodies which is good so they basically so that people in for the different arms that they built developed neutralizing antibodies the challenge with it only being eight people is partially because it takes a long time to do the neutralizing antibody research and we didn't hear from the other and he was thirty thirty five or thirty six trial participants as to how they did or why they didn't develop neutralizing antibodies even if they didn't develop them we need more time to understand those data and so there's no there's no way to know what these data mean and so I think that's what we're all waiting for we're waiting for that resulting dataset to do that in the office to know if the response is going to be durable to know you know what the rest of that vaccine population looks like I think we still have a ways to go it was a surprisingly upbeat result but I think it is definitely a positive finding we just we just have to wait and see what happens next what do you make of what we've heard from the World Health Organization overall so we had the health assembly who's in charge of breaching governments in this do you rely on the World Health Organization was it each country for their own yeah I think the World Health Organization is still are our number one leading international body serving all these member states and they are putting in place the structure by which the entire international responses happening we did here you know it's a digital world health assembly that the couple of days so I think it's not going to be the same as it normally is we did hear calls from the E. U. in Australia for an inquiry into the origins of the Coleman nineteen outbreak which clearly seems to be directed at China even though China wasn't specifically named Lawrence our Johns Hopkins University speaking there with Bloomberg dub dub.
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of seven point oh five and that's a Bloomberg business slash coming home thank you so much Paul Sweeney and Tom Kean we welcome all of you nationwide to decidedly different weekend in New York City all of us try to figure out the path forward of this pandemic of Polly walk by Mount Sinai and she's a very very difficult there with very brief people working huge hours in the middle of pandemic Corsicans down to the path forward we spoke today to the gentleman from the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg school of public health I should say Mr Bloomberg is the founder of Bloomberg LP this television radio operation as well and we talked to Josh well short of steam about the path forward a quick move higher on packs and there will be some degree of immunity particularly for people who experience element how much and for how long it's not known at all we just have to really capture that so I don't think there is a concern that this will be a very very differently than everything else but there's a desire to really understand the specifics before making healthy the White House are clearly getting better when do we get to where we flatten the curve I mean if you extrapolate out any given of the myriad logarithmic blind pass are we flat excluding days weeks or does it take me months to flatter curve I'm Karen deland one is going to be a high bar for places that have so much fire and particularly where there are a lot of people live together you know and and so I think the curve may look different in different places and you know the model will model one thing one way but what actually happened maybe maybe different and the models will have to accept it so I think we're learning what it's like on the other side of it because which is better than being on the front of the car but not knowing when to stop rising but is still you know a lot of uncertainty about when we'll be able to return to normal life what are the new studies you get that give us more of an indication of what drugs actually are used to and rightly so in order to combat call the nineteen yeah I got it quickly and it's not been being shown to work in different studies and may even be dangerous although the bat I quote high quality but he's really haven't been published for that and there's also a whole bunch of buddies coming out on embed video which is an anti viral drugs that have yet to come out and there will be some studies I think in a relatively short term about the effectiveness of convalescent plasma and there may be others that come out I think we're gonna get a period where there will be a lot of study coming out and you know it's important to look at different things and just the overall result but if there is in fact how big an impact at what point in the element the study being done that could be it medication that works very well early but not so well laid or vice versa it's gonna be a lot of information coming out and you know what I'm gonna be doing is looking at people who really understand violence and how to treat it the kind of interpret all the different studies that are will be around how long does it take to actually understand all of the unintended consequences of the drug and as you rightly say at what stage they should be administered early three months six months to to better understand it well you know for a particular drug depend the thirty that are available you know and how they all get looked at together but I think it's it that for many of these it'll be mine not many months of months not weeks today is but I think we will know more about what works and at one point in that court what is your sure sure students social distance I guess we've arbitrarily seven six feet or you know whatever it is what's your social distance when you're driving around I could try to steer clear from people as much as I can you know I'm I'm obviously wearing a mask of a declining counter somebody along the way headed to the grocery store or something like that but you know and I also might have a better look out onto my hand before and after being in contact with me you know the usual it yeah it's really a a challenge to kind of keep it top of mind but I think it's time to getting a little easier with the passage of every day now I think it will be for quite a while that work a little bit you know the the we're gonna have to change our routine and it might as well start now sure sure sure see from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg school of public health hugely hugely qualified and defects diseases there I just thought Paul PM there I I would go for you know like the consumer question you know how what is a social distance there's a water written this weekend Tyler Brule over monocle Paul had a great essay you know how do we do this how do we extract ourselves from a pandemic knowing they'll be risk and how do you measure that was taken it's not easy now when I think it's you know that the federal government state governments local governments are all going to weigh in on opinion said that it's also going to come down to individual sama you know when what kind of trade offer people willing to make now they both just to take New York City for example they have really taken to we have really taken to this you know quarantine aspect of it probably more so that people would have thought that's what you know Cuomo said put them pleasantly surprised about how new Yorkers have really taken to the sun martini how within New Yorkers and and everybody else around the world take to social distancing as we begin to open up and critically when the weather gets warmer time that's gonna be the real challenge yeah it really was great he says you know are we gonna have restaurants are sixty percent full I mean how do you manage that yep service Cerebus in central park self on Sunday morning sixty percent full but we worry it's out front I think that's gonna be the new normal and I think that's you know you like I think people are going to doctor just like they've adapted over the last six weeks to staying in place here and what happens when the you know with some of his round beaches and parks and things like that that is going to be the real test tell folks down the Jersey Shore that they can't go to the beach this summer exactly yeah well they were working on that this week of the young photo on the cover the New York times of I think Huntington beach Newport beach California as well Paul how bout those NFL draft ratings jacket out I mean how desperate how desperate people for sports networks whatsoever these even watch people sitting around talking on the phone so yeah it's good it's gonna be interesting so let's have it at that that raises a question is it can be NFL football in the fall well we'll see I mean we're trying to get to the other sports before that but I I think you and Kevin Sir we're right about.
Contagion of fear, uncertainty infect financial markets
"Ask when the bond market rarely rarely fall that's how the last couple of weeks today down seven basis points and it feels like nothing on a ten year one point one two percent is your guild and phone exchange dollar strength through yesterday brutal in the phone exchange market today no different the taller stronger against pretty much everything can G. ten once again makes a promise and that's been the story of the last week or so it's a confluence of all these shocks people just looking to hide cash park it at while they get through this volatility but also all of the companies in it that are not the U. S. who have found themselves in dollars set of currency hedges I mean there's so many factors that are playing into this the result as you said yesterday two levels even matter anymore I'm not sure what they do at the moment SO you wanna pick an example take sterling technically and politically when cable drops below one twenty decent entry point but a lot of support that over the last four years since the brexit vote right now looking gay I was looking at the chart yes that you and I were talking about and I just thought I wonder the flash crash log of twenty sixteen and October actually matters here does that level actually matter in any way shape or form we went through that like an I. three Bucks up with a one fourteen handle cable two Mondays ago yeah the one thirty two handle on cable it is moved so quickly so fast yeah and and that's supposedly a developed market right we we talk about what these are trading like emerging market currencies if you take a look at true emerging market currencies take a look at the Mexican peso it is just absolutely plunged versus the dollar it's now trading twenty four more than twenty four per dollar right now and that the weak as it's ever been in history what if I send my fears such films in capital D. to decapitate the boss of all bosses and the dollar feels like the possible asset classes and like it we think it's how you need to do the proper thing to do the African on this product I like S. Tom Kean comes back well I think he may want to kind of come back what you've told him he wasn't allowed to come back until at last come back next week but I think I'm gonna tell him he has to stay home and do it from his apartment but maybe we'll still hear you speak Italian and maybe or maybe not let's forget Jordan righteous they shall enumerate G. ten FX strategist used to be a neighbor of mine a long long time ago really don't try to catch up these through these things you said to me last week when I change the link and I was like okay Jordan when I take that sounds punchy we went through that like it was nothing the rating was John I mean could sell things fast enough we've we've sold two weeks ago three weeks ago we sold again yesterday and it fell to an office and within ten minutes it was pretty pretty often our clients and the question keeping will make its stock and will make a stop or wait pulled down the virus the incomes of the stunning Pacific angle it's when we get to a level whereas the flows stop comes what islands in the U. K. is actually built seventy years of leverage years of external vulnerabilities that its current account that say you know that balance of U. K. economic trade flows financial Clayton circle from government spending it's been a deficit anywhere between three to six percent of GDP not yet so that builds up and builds and builds up and you got all this external imbalances sensually coming out and and you got U. K. corporate meeting dollars you've got a lot of external investors needing back cash so that selling on the U. K. well and so we ask the question I mean I said one eighteen G. last week because that would be easy answer one other question if it's bigger level where is that where the current account goes into problems when the market will calm down and from all of our not to the point across the street as well as you will recall their fundamental equity in exchange right at the level and the current account goes into a pond and you stop having those that deficit problems you get level such as one to one eight five against the dollar against the euro at five one three one six of the novels so these are pretty scary levels we haven't seen those levels ninety eight people that's all that would be extremely strong for the plaza accord but given what's going on in markets this is a very completely different shock complied two thousand eight we just have to keep our minds open and like you said you said white in a few weeks ago I'm not a big deal while we're now looking at one o'clock the one I five hundred another mistake why keep making increasingly is drawing the line back to fundamentals in a market like the one run right now it's for exchange isn't this for just about illiquidity and technicals and a massive massive demand for U. S. dollar yeah I mean you know one night the man will run out will be at a stage where everyone has what they need and I don't think that's why now live because you just go years of the a leveraged position building up and it's also a function of investors wanting to get cash and so even provisions are making money such as the long gold trade that was made by the old old long fixed income money traded I was making money what happened is asset managers are having them vested pullout it makes sense given that the risk off environment so even good trade underperforming Sir is a nightmare there's a question where where is all this money going what are people doing with these dollars since you just need it in your bank account if your if your example someone has to pay the bills this month your record you're gonna call my healthy level could make their eyes that's what you need to call and see just seeing a lot of people draw down the savings and so when we look at different economies who had very low savings right shares are high thank right shares yeah we are starting to see a class in the country hi savings ratios under a little less stress I mean everybody's on the strap of the stage the U. K. did stand out of the country that has a very low savings rate shock brexit by another part of why we've seen this price action there's a concern here that we're getting close to something akin to if not I'm certainly not a run on the banks because the banks are flush with capital and they also have the backs up of central banks but a run on markets and and and there's sort of a question about the circuit breaker you talk about the virus but in terms of the technical selling pressure that you talk about in terms of margin coals or redemptions or foreign companies with swaps how far into what sort of ironing that out our way I do very hard question to answer photo on the bank you're right much more secure in two thousand eight hello a lot of the investment banks have got to have hands to transfiguration hold one years waffle overnight funding requirements so you don't have a similar situation my soul of RBS guns bust back in the heyday of the night's coming issues such as banks on a much better place is not a rush and is that unlike a bank runs let's just say that on the second part of your question I think it does boil down to what will make you stop and it's taking away from the U. K. and making more specific virus if women ruled in fact the hunt for at least two weeks from the county and the lockdown one government stock loosen them so take China for example that might be our best indicator of how this might play out we have two weeks three weeks four weeks of what damages government container Natchez well sometimes you can pop in central workers and then when we get signs that the vice it contains I think that might be the might of the market South Boston because we might get a sense of how deep the pain is and then we can stop twice in recovery because like now we have almost took my V. shaped recovery short shop had been something spectacle god it's now more like usual L. shaped stories but essentially if you think about you I think we have a weak Q. two now and that's when the bank the rolling into at the end of this month will be about pricing that recovery in Q. three and Q. all they could be W. shakes his number one we could see what happens two thousand eight we have the global financial crisis and then if you'd like to order barring that the euro crisis so we could see a couple of tricky is that this is like a very very long I any other letters Justin just with now bottom savings lake that's what it feels like Jordan for many people right now and at risk of getting a few steps ahead of us out to do it once you have some icons of thinking about some of these big issues at the moment because there is a worry and we poured up repeatedly on this program the even after this health crisis fades this particular episode will Spock appeared of defaults and de leveraging this stays with us for quite a while what are people saying to you about that Jordan everyone pretty much agree with the assessment that John in terms of how this plays out we have the recovery by W. SZCZEG W. credit he felt the B. Adeline the we are failed out essentially we have governments that have been very tough it's quite some time as such in America looking a bit more socialist I'm take equity stakes comply without him being out yesterday several companies that they deem worthwhile and if it means they'll be a pair of uncertainty knowing last year thanks that I noted that already single stop nines have shown signs of being resilient buses others using telecoms and other factor I think I'm about the president a global page recent differentiation going on that but essentially what is corruption credit spreads for the next year I think because don't be a fundamental driver of equity especially and for example if there is a long and politically you have a counterparty risk and you'll be dealing with clients being with crackle pets wondering what the level of default with care on this option so could be a lot more talk about even externally devices be contained within the next two weeks outside it will still have repercussions in the months
Starbucks Shuts Stores, Apple Sees Disruptions: Virus Impact
"It is all Stephen will this morning in Hong Kong soon as the staff out to get him vegetables in the morning and he failed yeah you couldn't get vegetables in Hong Kong he just won the anecdotal things you see your family said in a monotone I've got members of the family over in China at the moment how they going day today what they do and their large their fancy there up a skyscraper and they're protected they live work from home and is it is a hormone my son's name is hormone over there is that what we on an afterthought progeny he said there's a lot of other people here that don't get to work on the cushion apartment you know thirty four floors although the sort of lack of foot traffic is heavy says you're in trouble business of fact and I'm really struck by the fact that Starbucks is closed more than two thousand outlets in China have you do that visitor arrivals mainly to have plunged seventy nine percent during this key holidays John I want to go to your observation on United Airlines what really struck me was British air taken what time line out to March in all this morning what's different is are now beginning to see timelines involved and United it just looking at the traffic looking of the bookings incitement to scale back a fast take bookings on that you've got the lights United B. I scanned them back to Lisa's point you've got stop us closing stores you've got Toyota holding production and operations in China until February ninth these are becoming much to output damage the consumption and then also the disruption to supply chains as well apple came out with the radio and the forecast for the coming quarter a white band because when the I'm not they do not know what things look like in China and I don't think anyone does yes CEO Tim cook saying that they're working on alternative sources for the components working a mitigation plans to make up for any expected production loss as they do expect this a coronavirus fought to continue features of twelve we welcome all the global wall street's two things you need to know guess what is John you mentioned it bonds and equities to couple this morning big difference you'll to lower down by two three by several and yet to one sixty three and let's be clear the moving bombs pre dates the corona virus scare the last couple of weeks this is been going since the start of the year you'll to lower your blood when your Slocum's flatter your distance between cities intends right now is just eighteen nineteen basis points and we just take the ten year a one sixty three that's below the fed funds right I guess one but that's on the right out of the federal reserve in the meeting today that's a great point I also want to say that we're seeing is bond you'll never say I agree I say it all the time Tom Kean this you have a great point you just made a great point data could today all right well I will just say this is that the air positive under the couch got that right all right well is that I'm looking right now oil prices actually up which is also non correlated to the bond yields going lower and I think one question is if the fed cuts rate will rates will that be enough given what it would take for them to make that move would that be enough to stay in the rally in and risk assets that we're seeing is Alan Ruskin was saying or not you two are going to be leaving the good life I'll be was scarlet fu doing the fed be it is not that good it's a snooze fest the fed meeting today is a snooze fest with with no hopes of success that's a success with this new system seriously what the new ones for Michael McKee in the press conference look I think the most powerful thing the fed is done in the last twelve months is not even the cuts is the shift to the reaction function effectively telling everyone that if things get worse will be there for you and if things get better we won't cap the upside and stuff hi can again the shift in the reaction function has been really really powerful point one point two there's gonna be a lot of attention on what happens with the bam she we're gonna catch up with the Dudley formally at the New York fed a little bit later on this program in the nine o'clock cat don't miss the conversation because there is a lot of confusion over the balance sheet operation at the fed and there are a lot of people in this market the fed would say mistakenly connecting the balance sheet operation to what was saying in risk assets there's also a feeling as Muhammad Ilarion was saying yesterday that the fed is running out of ammunition that they're sort of ability to continue to boost up both asset prices as well as fat I financial conditions is losing steam at this point and I know that in Davos there are a lot of discussions about potential coordination between fiscal policy makers and politicians which really enter some harassed her just a big distinction their ability to stimulate markets I think at the moment some question given what we've seen in the last twelve months their ability to stimulate economies I think that's why this might get
Over 100 Billionaires Are Descending on Davos Next Week
"At least one hundred billionaires along with many other people will be converging in Davos Switzerland over the next couple of days that's for the annual gathering of the World Economic Forum Bloomberg surveillance host Tom Kean is among those covering the event he says it's not just a big party for the rich and famous Davos is basically a plumber's convention for people in fancy suits is like the nam the music conference going on Anaheim in January every year it's where everybody gets together and you have endless meetings behind the scenes to build in re nurture
"tom kean" Discussed on Newsradio 700 WLW
"Ultimately make what we consider a Rembrandt from could either of you can write all kinds of music yeah you know come up with Tom Kean different things but when you know it's a Rembrandt song but we both kinda go all right we can finish this one up this is somebody told me with this information if it's wrong please but somebody told me back in eighty nine with you were sitting in your basement and that's how you came up with just the way it is baby and that baby was like a word that you really didn't like but it was just you know it's funny I have a microphone plugged into a guitar pedal made of our yeah I was jamming away and you know what company myself with the Telecaster and I I'm coming up with all sorts of song ideas I had it on a tape and I am hers for awhile wild and I pull that I thought oh my god this is control his soul and then Danny and I got together and that was the first thing I showed maybe this is a way of thankless story out of it green and it became not only the first song we recorded as the Rembrandts and it was our first it's all about the baby you they how happy you are you how I guess rewarding is it for you I guess this is for for Danny as well and three feels the same way that you're not remembered for.
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Talking with Tom Kean and Jonathan what was it like having the giant darkened door every once in awhile experts appreciated when what they have to say is understood do you think that we might have seen a cyclical pain in the labor market it's the same reason we're recommending Bloomberg surveillance do you everything you thought would happen is handing week two mornings at seven on Bloomberg eleven for you the Bloomberg business happened Bloomberg radio dot com the world is listening like a lot of people out there I think of my business as well unique I have an equity can be complicated and while I don't expect everybody to understand it at the very least I expect my bank to bank they just didn't get it and he never really tried soon colleague of mine mentioned first Republic bank they have a lot of experience in the funds business now I'm convinced there's nothing they can do I come first Republic and they suggested setting up business banking specialist over at my convention that talk about service he came in and just blew me away his knowledge was outstanding and he absolutely spoke my language and since I switched to first Republic they constantly surprised me with their continued interest in understanding my business and the speed of the transactions involved they really know their stuff personal banking business banking private wealth management first Republic it's a privilege to serve you member FDIC Judy.
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Two leaders enjoyed talking with Tom Kean Jonathan what was it like having the giant darkened door every once in awhile experts appreciated when what they have to say is understood do you think we might have seen a cyclical pain in the labor market it's the same reason we're recommending Bloomberg surveillance do you everything you thought would happen attending weekend mornings at seven eastern on Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business happened Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening something remarkable happens when just the right elements come together ideas with technology data with inspiration investors with solutions this is what invesco does every day because they believe the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together invesco let's invest in greater possibilities together to learn more visit invesco dot com slash together invesco distributors incorporated influential conversations from Bloomberg television here's Kathleen Hays joining us now is that because we're not goes managing partner at Concord financial group what do you think we know what we know something's in place there's more to do what does it mean I think overall it's it's positive for the investor I take some of the uncertainty I mean we've always been anxious about the trade war so that certainly is very helpful but I think your face was an execution risk there's a lot to be scene in the weeks and months ahead whether we're gonna be able to actually deliver on the phase one deal that we just went through we don't know a lot of the detail but certainly we know that we don't have additional terms coming on board which will be very helpful and nothing will allow some people that her house was sitting on the sidelines to take a little bit more risk does that mean this is more taking away a negative the headline reads that mark our getting hit by the trade deal fell apart again as opposed to something that opens the door to a big rally the thing business also wants to have more concrete evidence the this is going to stick so there's nothing that prevents us from two months from now saying well you know what they're not fulfilling their obligations so we're back into raising tariffs and I think that's perhaps is going to hold some cool points from making those you know complex investments that of they've been holding off from making here more interviews like this one on Bloomberg television streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg mobile app or check your local cable listings markets headline and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com the Bloomberg business the Bloomberg business slash Moscow European stocks in U. S. stock index futures starting the week of the front foot amid hopes a partial trade deal between the US and China is is a key risk for investors heading into the year end treasuries are edging lower we check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg S. and P. futures are up eight points Dow futures up twenty seven nasdaq futures up twenty eight the dachshund Germany's up half percent ten year treasury down for thirty seconds yields one point eight three percent the yield on the two year one point six two percent NYMEX crude oil down a tenth of a percent or six cents at sixty dollars one cents a barrel coming school days up a dollar is it fourteen eighty two twenty an ounce and that's up less than a tenth of a percent the euro one point one one three nine against the dollar British pound one.
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"NJ IT if you look at where the NJ I. two students are going to go to a career fair there are lines of companies that want to get into the career fair and it's because they see those students as practical innovative I can tell you for a fact because we hire many and Jack graduates the students can contribute right from the get go the guy who reports to me who's in charge of all my implant development and judge the guy reports I'm in charge of all my robotics development and try to grab the contributes to development cycle they contribute to the test and we have enjoyed she graduates in manufacturing women JG graduates in quality assurance we have been J. two graduates in our computer science these students are some of our past and J. I. T. New Jersey institute of technology learn more at stories of innovation and J. I. T. dot E. D. U.. getting into the room with the world's business leaders is only half the battle that was a wild moment you also need to know what to ask bring this in terms of the price action created right now Tom Kean Jonathan ferro and everyone else who's interesting he's given this great perspective on these banks Bloomberg surveillance so you don't think they should but you think they well we do mornings at seven Easter on Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business happened Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening. and I just wanna see is lucky to have a brother. lucky came from our brother is far from easy. he's a part of me my mom's a link so well be his..
Bill Dudley: The Fed shouldn’t enable Donald Trump
"Former New York fed president bill Dudley got a chance to set the record straight today on the Bloomberg opinion column he authored contending the fed shouldn't enable Donald Trump he said in that column that the central bank should refuse to play along with an economic disaster in the making Republicans said they were outraged definitely would suggest the fed should play politics today he spoke to our Tom Kean and Jonathan Ferrell on Bloomberg surveillance we do have to reflect on off at the road around about a month ago I don't think on the quote with you since clarified and I want you to clarify once again it was the conclusion of the original that I think a lot of people's backs up and it said the following if the goal of mine a few policies to achieve the best long term economic outcome than fed officials should consider how the decisions will affect the political outcome it's twenty twenty when I got published how much push back did you get your full McCauley look I think there was a misunderstanding about what I was really trying to say what were you trying to say well the basic that main point the piece was to try to point out the fact that the president trump was trying this or have it both ways on trade he's pursuing a trade policy with China that pose risks for the economy at the same time as saying if the economy performs badly it's it's. the fed slow and my view is that the fed needs to make it very clear that the major risk to the economy is trade policy because creating uncertainty about investment and trade and supply lines and things of that sort and the fed needs to make it clear that that much your policy can only do so much about that I think the fed has made it more clear over the last few weeks I think if you look at chairman Powell's press conference he talked about trade and certainly a lot he talked about how the trade in certain is not some of the fed can easily address and that's the kind of push back that I thought was desirable I think a lot of people would be sympathetic with that view and that was the part of the pet that I think a lot of people were sympathetic with what they want with the mention of twenty twenty what is twenty twelve like I was I was trying to be provocative and what do they what they said the person to be very precise about it one could make if you accept the notion that the feds lofty goals are temps of maxim sustainable price and price stability over long term and one also accept the premise that this trade war might not be good for the the economic outlook then logic would say there's a question about should the fed take this should the fed take this into consideration at the end of the day I made very clear in the second piece that I wrote I don't think the fed should actually take this into consideration in setting policy if the fed were to do that they would become politicized and people would basically react by reducing the independence taking away the independence of the fed so you think the fed's already become politicized well it has become politicized because of the presence of tax on the fence so there's an academic piece that was good came out of the last I don't know twenty four of seventy two hours I saw it I just this morning and and they basically did a study of the effect of the present the fact the fact of the president's treats tweets on on the federal funds market and what they found was that the tweets actually were causing people to reduce their expectations about the federal funds rate so the fence already politicized in the sense that people are not sure now yeah if the fed is easing because that's the appropriate policy path or because of pressure from the trip president but that politicization. it's not coming from the fed is coming from the president but that is a really important point but also not politicize ation that pace I came from you and anyone this conversation now she's talk about in your face we came to say a former New York fed president should not comment on the current New York fed president but by mentioning twenty twenty can you appreciate how you've compromised your former colleagues and the optics around the next decision like I think that I think they're gonna behave in a a political way is there to do what they think is appropriate for the county and if I were sitting in their shoes I would do the exactly the same thing former New York fed president bill Dudley speaking today to Bloomberg's Tom Kean and Jonathan Ferrell and joining us now is Bloomberg news federal reserve reporter Chris Khandan Chris you heard Mister Dudley's explanation has he effectively put this controversy to rest high above the well it may continue to fade a bit but I think we can fairly call that a very tortured said of explanations about what bill Dudley said in what he has since claimed that he said and wrote they don't quite really match up in I think in the end it's clear that he has not made life for his former colleagues including take Powell easier he's made it more difficult well this is this really a triggered of some tough questions not only from Republicans but from Democrats absolutely and across I must say across the financial markets a lot of economists who watch the fed closely many who who used to work at the fed were fairly aghast at the initial call on it it really just invited hammering of the fed from certain corners on on Capitol Hill some folks that are going to take advantage of that and hammer the fed it it it as Jonathan very rightly pointed out in that interview the bill's own words politicized or or. give the appearance that the fed might act in a political manner when making a monetary policy decisions in may be justified in that and that's that's really it a poisonous idea for policy makers in this new study that was just published on Monday by the national bureau of economic research shows that market participants believe that the fed is under political pressure and will succumb to political pressure by the president so they think it's there that that's a very interesting study and quite frankly that surprised me I'd like to I I need to read more deeply into that but it does they claim to show a combined ten basis points off the expected fed funds futures contracts that's really I'd like to know how persistent that effect may be and we are the on the N. economics and fifteenth we do our own surveys of for instance economists these are not that's not the same body of people that are studied in that paper so they're not market participants but they are economists PhD Scott that following the fed and we asked them in several of our recent surveys over past months whether they think trump's criticisms would have any effect on monetary policy decision making and overwhelming the
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg surveillance I think the US is going in for a couple years of very very strong growth by early the next decade will start to become a real problem for the market the consumer is really strong right now we don't realize how good times are now investments biggest problem that people have been investing in stocks is that they get out of the market last about to be easy and you want to find it easier to. Tom Kean in full swing on Bloomberg radio good morning everyone Paul Sweeney in turn can re second morning do you want to vent full day of course it is the eighteenth anniversary of the tragedy of September eleventh The New Yorker Michael bar was some wonderful reports as for the morning as we move eighteen years on we are close here to another moment of remembrance this on that second tower the south tower we'll get to that here in a bit Paul what is the Clarion moment of these markets this morning for you I think the Clarion moment here is you know were quiet ahead of what is going to be an active several days coming from the central bank later easy bit overwhelmed at all does it really does and so I think we'll see how starting tomorrow that the central banks in view of the current economic outlook I believe our Matthew Miller in Berlin will be in front for it for easy be tomorrow and an exceptionally eventful press conference of Mr Draghi will of course of parse the headlines of the press conference as well the corporate news I don't have time to discover it degree view rather in one breath this morning let us begin with potential acquisition a shock of the hundreds of Hong Kong stock exchange going after the London Stock Exchange a bolt on their London going after affinity of the old Thompson Reuters they would to Hong Kong would jettison that transaction which makes it even more convoluted that good reports and then through the morning and also of course Amazon with a Bloomberg report by our Spencer sober and then Brody of of the FTC taking a harder view of the small business impact of members on that many would expect me to this fish is up for Dow futures up forty four in yields as Paul said of reverse lower earlier have come back up Paul yeah exactly and it's itching to that Amazon news it's just kind of goes to the heart of some of the concerns of tech investors about the regulatory oversight across all of be. tech is it increasing if so is it a problem most investors recognize a better keeping a kind of in the back of their minds at the moment to review the last hour for us to see the president of the United States the First Lady lawn beneath the south portico in their moment of silence they reversed and went back into the White House I don't have in front of me the president's schedule. for the rest of the day at the Pentagon senators and house leadership gathered for the room more memorial with the flag draped across that wall of the Pentagon we saw that with the sunrise remembrance earlier this morning we have remembrances through the hour and now we consider the south tower of the World Trade Center in flight one seventy five Los listen on the September eleventh. boy are you terribly missed by Mary Jo Christine Angelo and we are so so sorry that Michael P. bring the especially beautiful joy never got to meet the one and only great I and Schneider we miss and love you are..
"tom kean" Discussed on WAFS Biz 1190
"Eleven nine Tom Kean daily we bring you inside from the best in economics finance investment information you can't afford to miss after record breaking heat Tuesday not quite as hot Wednesday the temperature still well above average partly cloudy overnight with a stray storm possible seventy seven mix of clouds and sun with afternoon storms Wednesday low nineties heat index near one hundred from the weather channel here in Atlanta I'm here just can moon live from the outlet online dot com studios in Buckhead it's seventy six degrees com broadcasting live to London on the A. B. digital radio in New York LM three up to Washington DC nineteen ninety one to force to include both one of six one to San Francisco nine sixty and around the globe the Bloomberg business center radio call this is the book daybreak thirty AM in London nine thirty two listening ours Frankfort old Brussels good morning everyone I'm a rich text and I'm Roger hearing and you're listening to Bloomberg daybreak year thirty minutes into the equity market opening we've turned negative on the stop six hundred request flat at the open an interesting because at one point in the Asian session futures were actually in positive territory went down two tenths of a percent on the stop six hundred right now if you look at industry groups so there's an even split between gainers and losers taking a look at the regional equity benchmarks let's see one hundred flat CAC forty down three tenths of a cent tax down by the same the ibex inputs he made down about five tenths of a percent I did comment earlier that maybe we would see equity markets take the queue of the bond market and it looks like that is what is happening U. S. futures also when the red nasdaq futures down three tenths of a percent S. and P. five hundred E. minis down three tenths of a percent Dow futures down by the same this after we saw the S. and P. five hundred close up one and a half percent yesterday jumping to percent at one point on positive sentiment G. to president trump delaying tariffs on some Chinese goods but we're taking a pause on that risk valley right now even though we saw a ten year yields back up yesterday the ten year treasury yield is down again with down five basis points now back below one seventy what touching a one sixty five handle a take you look across the U. S. curve you all see yields full across the curve yesterday the two's tends got to below two basis points so that was something of causing a lot of consternation in the markets in the US and we did see Pannonia but went back to fattening now and we all two basis points on that to use tents curve is it still has a recession is it still as much of a recession indicators it used to be though the ten year bund yield down a basis point speaking of recession is Jeremy flirting with it we saw that contraption for the second quarter negative sixty two on the ten year bund yield ten you get a steady doll yet on the back foot after we saw quite a big retreat in the end it yesterday it went down four tenths of percent one of six thirty five and some weakness in oil markets as well but that seems to be driven after four days of gains to the rise in US stockpiles that we saw yesterday in Russia well let's look at some of today's top store including some of course of what is pushing the markets as you said Chinese officials still planning to come to Washington.
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Along side Tom Kean on Jonathan ferro we are live on Bloomberg radio with two hours away from the open about his the news you need to know this hour he was featured in Chicago by two tenths of one percent off the yesterday's one point three percent gain on the S. and P. five hundred meanwhile in the foreign exchange market the wind is weaker after China's central bank that its daily reference right just barely below a seven handle over in Asia three central banks across the Asia Pacific delivering surprise interest right decisions as policy makers take more aggressive action to cancer the rex around the economic outlook New Zealand India left with bigger than expected interest rate cuts while Thailand's twenty five basis point reduction was a surprise to all but two in a Bloomberg survey of economists that's the FX market in the equity market the headline from owning shares of Disney down almost four percent after running some revenue that missed analyst estimates a little bit more on that a little bit later now time symbol headlines from around the world let's say good morning to Michael by thank you very much Jonathan that gets on the sites of the recent mass shootings in Ohio and Texas are preparing for presidential visit White House officials say president Donald Trump will bring a message of national unity and healing to Dayton and el Paso today the communities are grieving for thirty one killed and dozens wounded in a weekend shootings some el Paso residents say they are not a welcoming the president this afternoon casting him as a flawed messenger democratic representative running Gaskell bar of Texas said she declined an invitation to join the president his words have incredible power you walk through all.
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The new Brexit deal is a stunt because you will not rule out leaving the European Union without an agreement labor party leader. Jeremy Corbyn is refusing to meet may until she takes no deal off the table. After May's e you divorce deal was resoundingly rejected by parliament. She said she would talk to opposition leaders and other lawmakers in a bid to find a consensus on a new plan. Isis has claimed responsibility for a deadly explosion in Syria that killed four members of Americans to US service members and a defense contractor ended apartment of defense civilian state twenty seven of the partial government shutdown still no breakthroughs. Global news twenty four hours a day on air at a tick tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. Michael. Barr. This is Bloomberg Jonathan Michael Barr. Thank so much negative nine futures negative eighty two. John heroin, Tom Kean from New York London. This is Bloomberg. For the fifth time running sarcoma. Odds are you've never heard that word before for the forty people diagnosed with sarcoma everyday, it is a life changing word because this cancer awareness, advocacy, and research, the sarcoma foundation of America is bringing hope to the families whose lives have been turned upside down by cancer. They've never heard of until diagnosis please twins. The fight to find the cure for sarcoma. For more information on the work of the sarcoma foundation of.
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Bloomberg interactive brokers studios. I'm Tom Kean and our beautiful London studios here Queen Victoria street by Mansion House for those, you know, London just just up against Bonk or Bank the tube stop here as well. Joining us now on the great bounce is Margie Patel. It has been harsh high yield price think on the Eighty-six down to eighty. But what a nice bounce. We've had in the first part of January Margie wasn't Howard marks calls. It a downdraft in December due back to weeks. Did you play this in a choir? High yield price up yield lower is we've seen in January. Did you play this bounce? I was really pretty quiet because any cash needs. But certainly I thought it was a great buying opportunity because it went down in a vacuum. No negative news for high yield really knee-jerk reaction to equities. So now what I mean, this is fascinating folks, we're talking to the iconic Margie Patel of wells, capital management and Margie. It seems like still a nice opportunity to get back to the relative calm of August. And september. Number is that what you see I think so because you have yields so say five and a half to seven percent average average for good quality, high-heeled defaults, still low. So even if you had a pickup in default by percents or to an unlikely event at this point, you're more than compensated in the extra yield. And I think it's really going to provide competitive return for equities some Marquis switching over to the equity side as Thomas mentioning that just investors been whipsawed coming out of that fourth quarter. And then a nice bounce here. So far in two thousand nineteen as we go into earnings. What do you think investors should be focusing on across the board here? I think the large themes what sectors? What industries are being hurt by this clear deceleration in global growth at gross here. That's the number one thing that I'm going to be looking for how about in the in the tech sector. It's been obviously, a sector that has led the markets both directions. A lot of volatility there. Do you see any value in tech sector here? Well, I do because many names have had big corrections certainly from there maybe down twenty percent. They still have secular growth, even the more cyclical sectors like semiconductors after resting for another quarter to should have a rebound in growth there virtually all cash flow machine. So I think they're pretty attractive for long-term at this discounted prices. We have right now. This is a critical issue. Then we're talking about deployment of cash continued rising dividends use of cash to buy shares. It's a little bit Margie. But it's not do you believe the corporations will behave with cash the way they have over the last fifteen years. They showed themselves to be pretty astute users. They took advantage of the record low rates to borrow have a lot of on the balance sheet flexibility to pay down lines do acquisitions buy back stock. They haven't. Wasted the money by buying back too much stock or spending on huge expansion. So I think they've been very good job husband or of their cash. Just so you know that we're getting headlines out right now for the president. We may have the audio coming up of the president's come comments rather to reporters he is heading to Nashville, Tennessee to the farm convention. The American firm bureau federation's one hundred annual convention that ought to be interesting in itself and Paul Sweeney the headlines, I see your simple, the president says the US doing very well China. The president says allegations he worked for Russia disgrace and a hoax Paula. It goes on from the storyline that we saw over the weekend. It does he has a lot of balls in the air and the markets are just trying to synthesize. What's going on? What's important, actually? And certainly. Get through the noise in murky Patel. You've had a few years, you know, five or ten looking at this. Does the president's comments does the uproar in Washington? Fold over into the confidence in the high yield space. I think it's just really background noise. Because none of the uncertainties that we see in Washington are affecting economic fundamentals and certainly not in the high yield market or helped a lot because there's been no issuance, virtually no issuance so far this year and the market is still star for high yielding papers always. I'm corrected in New York. I'm in London, folks. What do I know? But the president told Marlins and that national I got the N word. Right. You know, I got Nashville New Orleans. I got one of them. Right. Right. And he's talking about the farms, and that's obviously a big part of the economy. Yes, just wondering what you know in the high yield market one one of the sectors. That's always been obviously, a big player there and the housing sector in you know, now in a rising interest rate environment. What are you seeing coming out of some of those credits? I'm rather muted to slightly negative on there. Because I think that it's a question of affordability in the in the housing sector. We've had rates go up. We've had rakes come down a little bit. But I think that's really what's going to pinch demand rather than anything else. So I'm I'm pretty neutral on that sector. Margie within yield. What's a yield hog right now. I was sorta surprised last somebody was telling me you could comfortably. Get a four percent coupon is that true that you could pick up even for even five percent yield in your world in certainly in in high yield. That would be very very easy to do. That would be a probably a high yield bond trading on a yield to call and ears. Is is is stupid stupid season? And we did we clear out the yield hoggish -ness of the market with his uproar in December. Well, there are very attractive even say tenure areas bonds yield your magic four percent and. Five and say five and five eight so that's pretty attractive. In a world where equities are probably going to have profit Groza five to eight percent. Okay. Margie patel. Thank you so much as Wells Fargo wells capital management this morning, Paul love to speak to Margaret Patel because she synthesizes over from high yield over in dividend growth in equity markets as well. It gets us away from that endless, full, faith and credit talk. Yeah. Japan. Was there? Whether you're looking at high yield or some of these high growth equity spaces, you know, these are really stories that investors really have to pay attention to you can't just make a market call. You really have to dig down into the fundamentals. Visual. You know, the selection even though there's a lot more bonds in a given portfolio typically equity. Listen, data check comeback, Paul Sweeney and Tom Keene. Lots going on on a Monday again, the president heading for Konare Louisiana out of joint base Andrews here in a bit down negative one eighty SAP negative twenty two. Of course, we're trading right now the vix nineteen point seven four a little bit of risk on here. One eight fourteen stronger Japanese yen and other than that assured to the market with the yield two point six eight and the tenure yield as Well, Paul Sweeney in New York. I'm Tom Kean in London stay with us. This is Bloomberg. Let's go for news update. Michael barr. Thank you very much, Paul. Thank you, Tom. The normally busy terminal at Houston's main airport remains closed today by product of the partial government shutdown airport. Officials call it a staffing issue associated with the shutdown as TSA employees who aren't getting paid stayed home. The shutdown is now in its twenty fourth day US district judge has blocked the Trump administration's plan to under the ObamaCare rule that provides free contraception coverage ruling, however, only applies to the thirteen states that sue plus the district of Columbia British Prime Minister Theresa may made a last ditch attempt to win lawmakers over to her Brexit deal as the European Union's own efforts to help her fell short the refuses to put a time limit on the backstop. The key demand from the UK critical parliamentary vote on Brexit plan takes place tomorrow. Indonesia, navy divers have recovered the cockpit voice recorder of. A lion air jet that crashed into the Java sea in October killing all one hundred eighty nine people on board. Global news twenty four hours a day on Aaron at tick tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg Michael Barr. Thank you so much Brexit, Washington. Pulse. Sweeney. None of it matters April fourteenth. They announced game of thrones returns to HBO. That is a big deal for HBO isn't a big deal for HBO announce a big deal for AT and T which owns HBO. There. We go. Be something to talk about season..
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We had a big new shock. We tag contagion plus nine eleven commission chairman, Tom Kean on lessons learned from the attack. But we didn't do. Go to the stage. The Middle East Africa where the terrorists thrive with a come from all this and more coming up in the next hour of Bloomberg best. First. Let's check the markets and some of today's top business stories. I'm Charlie Pellett. Technology rebounded and energy related. Shares rallied along with crude oil west Texas intermediate crude up two point seven percent as P five hundred and NASDAQ up for a second day as investors shook off lingering anxiety about US and Chinese trade relations Savita superman, Ian is head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, Merrill, Lynch. You know, I think what's going on in the US is sufficiently different from what's going on in other regions that you can't actually justify this divergence. I mean, look at the US, we're tightening. We are the fed is officially tightening. We've had this massive fiscal stimulus package dropped on us in the form of tax cuts at a time when we probably didn't even need it. The economy was starting to chug along and Chris almond is chief investment officer at the California state teachers retirement fund, the nation's second-biggest pension. And fund, we're constantly watching it. I can't figure it out. You know, it's it's equal match like a tennis match back and forth. But everytime. It gets raised. The stakes get raised higher and higher, and it's hurt the dollar, and it's hurt. The emerging markets. Also on Bloomberg talking about trade and tariffs. Kathleen, Gaffney director of diversified fixed. Income at Eaton Vance management in Boston as much as the headlines are negative. I really view.
Netflix plummets as subscriber growth slows
"John. Farrow in New York I'm. Tom Kean in London in between us we have. Eight net flicks accounts we tried to get rid of them as. Best as we can different people keep signing up using art. Names and that's on Netflix has. Done it until yesterday the stock down over fifty dollars call a. Twelve percent. Right now Joins us from LeBron. London is we look, at. The end of net flicks, is we know, an. And I just did a two standard deviation. Chart net flicks is such. A juggernaut it's not even down to resistance it's. Amazing it's pulled back twelve percent this morning and it's still within trend his the bat been broken of net flicks is unreal. Bull market is this just a. Quick blip along the road or is there something different this time I, think what we'll have. To see is one of. The results that come out from the following quotes? Mean it's always dangerous taking one quarters Results, and then extrapolate move across. Having said that there will be some particular points of concern for people in terms of longer term story berry mind given the market cap stock Four hundred fifty million dollars you really need some punches sumptious both in terms subscribe because as, well off, because moving forwards to justify Now I think people will be particularly concerned about this the courts to subscribe Which is not great then the tweet subscriber addiction, doesn't look victory fantastic Come back to this point before it's the the the argument that, Netflix has that impacted. By the fact of a lack of new. Shows What is it suggests that they have to continually invest in very expensive very costly drama which quite frankly nobody knows whether, we'll be showed to keep that subscribe of immense and the rest of the the package Just doesn't seem good enough to watch she gets to subscribe Then some expecting out. Down the street so As I said I won't call numbers let's not put it into. A trend if this Qatif the next quarter. So I think people would be very wide so let's talk about a couple of things in the first point, you've made as the as the quarterly miss and. I want to talk. About the communication Rian we didn't just miss we miss by. A million subscribers when you miss that big typically something's gone wrong with communication both from the company towards, the street and just the general visibility internally how if they got it this wrong. In I think they they probably a. Company doing what you. Love you look at the trends that being going on both. In, terms all q on q and then year on year you'll take of you on that you'll say, since of all markets than you in previously Suddenly you become all the more productivity growth as well I think therefore full of things What extrapolate from that worn either the growth markets hasn't been is good as they expected all they've. Seen more weapons to slow down Markets both of which is obviously of a Boeing trend. They might argue that the World Cup is having, the fact in the sense that the World Cup probably was much better received competition. The many would've expected, the star, of, the tournament and. I think that will probably be the main line of defense
Why investors should worry about plunging copper and soybean prices
"The president pimm he exodus brussels right now is there a sigh of relief or is there a round of sort of congratulations that perhaps what has happened is going to change the way nato operates for the better others pontificate about whether it's a permanent change or whatever but there's a lot of finessing politics there always is but there's just a trump way to this how much did you think brussels was like quebec i thought unfortunately there are some real similarities to a certain extent but also i would just point out that you know if you type in president donald trump and nato and if you just look at what comes up in twenty seventeen many of those headlines could be used today yes and he frankly he made that point with an extended press conference he goes to england a big uproar about a balloon sorta like a mini blimp kind of thing at the mayors allowed to be within protests in london he will meet the us embassy staff i believe that's close him and then royal pomp and serpents circumstance that it blended blerim palace i should say the home of the marlboros so he's going to be there as well as a working lunch i believe with prime minister theresa may yes he'll be lunching and meeting the queen at windsor castle and on and you wonder if he'll do comments again before he troops off to helsinki one of the uproars is mike gallon hasn't axios this morning is he's proposing to repaint air force one and this is created the history was fascinating i have no idea that the design was from jfk and jackie and they had picked out that sort of off blue that is worldwide world known yes well we'll have to see what the president decides or indeed if they do it but i would think they're going to stick with the majority of white on the on the air the article is it's a fascinating article i'll try to get it out technical terms right having some painted white makes it easier to inspect for cracks or dense oil like that safety reasons absolutely as well hockey's hockey stick moves in the market pimm i'm looking soybeans now out over eight standard deviations another leg down yeah another like down and also dollaryen with new weakness what are you looking at well i agree and also been looking at copper prices because copper soybeans the commodities perhaps that may tell you more about what's going on china us trade relations copper also lower today well actually moving a little bit higher but i would say that's more of a rebound copper prices have consistently declined over the last twelve months now folks surveillance good news the golfing fritzy has a gulfstream this weekend pimm she's going down to i don't know somewhere in the mediterranean i can't remember so i'm i'm going like you know he's wrote a helsinki kind of thing and i get into helsinki before i believe france croatia so i guess that's good news a watch it from finland you'll be able to do that it's everywhere saturday belgium england is well sort of like i guess they play really hard in the game as well fox in new york i'm tom kean in london please stay with us this is bloomberg it's a great time of year to be outdoors fishing in a local stream splashing through a creek we almost soon these waters are safe and clean but for most streams no one knows for sure what's a problem a.
"tom kean" Discussed on The Tom Leykis Show
"Four workplace with a supervisor i got along with and co workers there was all good you know so i don't know what your field is there anything but you're making good money you might want to look at that yeah i work in the insurance field and yeah i work with i work a lot of hassle just add this particular nature we deal with people high profile people so that that whole energy that we deal with just very much everything has to be now everything is negative you know and and so you're right that you're perceptive too that's yeah wanna look at you know either getting to a workplace where they treat you better and even if it means a little bit of a pay cut if you're not going into work you know miserable every day it's worth it you know when you don't have to start over you know what i mean well we start steelers out there it's horrid this point because i've been in point where you know the the the salary would be quite a bit and not that there's nobody out there but you know it's just less choices but i do always have my my feelers out there just yeah yeah and then the other thing i wanted to tell you i mean i was gonna counting i have a degree in finance applied economics and on starting to be a cpa i should be within a year and i'll have a degree i can sit i can sit for the test which is cool and i like i like listening to tom kean me on track you know what i mean cracks a little bit and once the one one piece of advice i would give you as you say you just pay your goals and you just spend you know you don't have to track every sense but why what once he's that might be helpful for you to take account of all like all your bills all your obligations that you have to pay and how much you may just see why you have to pay each month to meet your obligations and then you should set it up with payroll so that they automatically take a certain percentage of your paycheck and it goes to different a different thank you.
"tom kean" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tom kean in new york this is bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg radi we go back to the spectrum enterprise phone line now spectrum enterprise nationwide fiber base network and i t infrastructure solutions find mohammad hilarion chief economic adviser to ali on author of the only game in town and of course columnist for bloomberg view i know muhammad you're lending an ear to the interview that our colleague michael mckee just did with bill deadly the president of the new york fed i wonder what stood out to you i we were listening here for some commentary on unwinding that balance sheet the great by mike ricky dr me one one more general very specific the remarks that could be twenty seven teen and they don't have strong feelings clinton thing oh i think that democracy who moved into but more until wsb comments today most of the pets queen good what king but the fact with getting more confident about the economy somewhat more with market and with keeping an eye on outfit crisis w didn't go back to that totally was much more back so it's interesting to see that get as much stick knows you've got of the law when he meeting with it really pain jamak we had a conversation throughout the week about the relationship between the soft data and the hard data tobias levkovich earlier in the week saying he's looking itself data as a firm indicator of of what's happening with the hard dates leading the hard days how do you see it's something to build deadly talked about this morning like on the team yeah he and he said what everybody has noticed so far which is that the much improved two men for household and business indicators not yet reflected in hot data i don't know whether it's uh huh indicator or whether it's a fall in decatur it certainly will have an impact on behaviors but i wouldn't see firm needing into mm let me change gears who can we say rose your coverage of the state in the heart of the man's this is coming to thunderous end this quarter with restructurings it's adele the black rock cetera and you were truly one of the great experts on this you work for years go and of course you work for harvard management.