20 Episode results for "Todd Furman"

323: Episode 323: Week 3 NFL Betting with Todd Fuhrman

The Sharp 600

28:25 min | 3 d ago

323: Episode 323: Week 3 NFL Betting with Todd Fuhrman

"Welcome to the sharp six hundred brought to you by covers dot com. I'm rob chrissy. And i'm super excited jamie. Would you and joining me today to help you get ready for. nfl week. Three action is todd furman host and co founder of the the board podcast in analyst for cbs hq. You can follow him on twitter at todd. Firmin todd great to have you on the show. Hey thank you for inviting me on rob. Hopefully we can make all of your listeners and viewers a little bit smarter in a few minutes so we can keep those bankrolls intact as we head towards week three and man you blink and the start of the season almost feels like it's already in the rear view mirror i know aim and all of that so what we're going to do is i. We're gonna do a quick recap of nfl week to then get to week three but todd. There's a narrative on your twitter. That i love that. I have to talk to you about. Because i don't hear it anywhere else. In this comes from one of your tweets. It says just one week. I'd love sports books to tell us. How many eight nine and ten team parlays loser their shop instead of picking out the one that defies the odds as a sports betting lottery ticket in the reason this resonates with me. So much is foundationally. I want to teach people how to fish how to be a more informed sports better i know what the downside of all of this is in so much of sports. Betting can get overly glamorized where they'd just say look at all this like. We're winning the lottery all the time. Why is this a thing for you. I mean let's not kid ourselves. There's always a place for parleys in the sports betting ecosystem and they're never going away and i think a lot of people can have fun with them when you use them responsibly. But you're right. I think when you sensationalize how many of these things actually hit because you get caught up in the social media storylines that headlines. I mean that just this past week. Mgm apparently had a player that went at twenty five dollars. Free bet with the chance to win more than seven hundred thousand dollars. Those stories are few and far between it's essentially megabucks on the slot machines and the reality of it is. It is a slow arduous process to try and become a profitable sports better. So if you wanna play a two or three team or hey look. There's plenty of opportunities to turn that into a positive expectation. But i just want people to keep perspective that if you keep plugging away hoping that you're going to hit an eight or nine teamer rob. I've never hit one in my entire betting career. Probably because i only three or four them along the way but the simple reality of it is those should be kept in a silo. Have a little fun with it. But don't try and use them as they foundation. If you want to be successful betting sports long term so really. It would be bankroll management aright. We're not saying you can't do these things. But maybe you say i'm going to set aside x. Amount of my bankroll to really invest in a lottery tickets. And if we're gonna do that. Todd do you think that money lines are probably the air quotes smartest way to try and accomplish this. I won't say there is a smarter. Dumber way to try and do it. I think if you're going to capture lightning in a bottle and look to play seven eight nine ten. Maybe even more teams in there. You go about strict structuring it. In such a way that you feel you're going to get your entertainment value and again if it's a ten dollar bet that happens once every weekend during football season so be it take full advantage of it enjoy it have fun with it. But don't use that to replace some of the street wagers and some of the fighting chance that you have against the sports books just because the math is always working against you. I mean. there's a reason that you've seen books over. The years changed the math on a six six. And a half or seven point teaser in the nfl but parlay math never changes and having spent time behind the counter at caesars and we put out the parlay cards. It was a very healthy part of our business. And it's not as though we pull games off of those cards that moved upwards of a full field goal because we knew over the course of the long haul it was an amenity for the customer and they were going to be fighting an uphill battle even with the half point cards or whatever unique variations. We were putting out for a particular season. Yeah my mindset has always been. It's hard enough for me to win. One bet nonetheless two three eight or ten beds. So i i'm right there with you my friend for every one hundred bats i make if i can win fifty four to fifty five out of those. It still leaves plenty of opportunity to get saddled with those bad beat losses one hundred percent so looking back on. Nfl week to we went one and two with our picks are get comfortable being uncomfortable better. The week of the chicago bears. That was a sort of easy bet or easy winner albeit a little bit of a sweat at the end are pickle. Loser of the forty niners lost in. This was terribly frustrating and taught. I want to get your thoughts on this because the eagles are up three nothing. They're driving they look like they're going to go up ten nothing. The narrative of the game is perfect setting up boom everything that i thought we got him at three and a half. This looks amazing and then all of a sudden the eagles completely crapped bed forty. Niners win this game. And i'm sitting here scratching my head saying what in the world happened to the eagles in that game a game in which they looked like they were in control from the beginning. Yeah and i'm right there with ya. I was also sitting on an eagles ticket. Plus three and a half thought the way. The game plan had unfolded at least through the first twenty. Six minutes was exactly as you've envisioned. The forty niners were a little bit flat. The philadelphia eagles defensive line was controlling the trenches. And you have that touchdown pass to jalen. Reagan called back because he was forced out. I don't think that was quite the case. But even with that play you get the big pass over the top two quiz watkins a first and goal where the eagles come away with nothing and the momentum changing drive before the half the forty niners go ninety seven yards and i believe twelve plays and suddenly again. In that you've dominated you had a massive yardage edge. You're going into the break facing a seven three deficit and with a team like philadelphia. That's young still has to learn how to win. It's a disappointment to say the least over the first thirty minutes because they could have had a fourteen. Maybe seventeen nothing type lead. Then they give up the first touchdown in the second half they do of course get the late score convert to to just weren't able to get the offense in a position to get any closer coming up seventeen eleven on the short end but all contend. It was the right side for the first thirty minutes. But when you go into the break chasing four it didn't leave me. Feel in warm and tinguely with philadelphia needing to play for mine. I'm with you in our last. Sing our big mic. My line parlay of the week hit the packers hit the browns ba- lost with the steelers. In how in the world of that happened me. Being from pittsburgh steelers fan. If you would have told me no devon bush and know joe haden ahead of time before i placed that. Then they lose. Tj watts and tyson follow to injury. That steelers defense got absolutely decimated. And i look back to sort of what i was. Live tweeting during week. One and it was the steelers defense is going to need to win this game versus the bills and there was sort of the special teams that made all of that happened. Because the offense in pittsburgh there's so many weapons but there's just my spider sense and what i'm seeing with. Ben rothlisberger is he's very brittle the offensive line is doing him. No favours in. This is football one on one with ask david car when he came to the nfl. When you have no protection or zach wilson certainly experiencing this. When you're line isn't doing anything in ben is made of wheat thins and his super brittle his getting no time and that just the game just did not unfold like expected when i placed the bet on tuesday. What's your thought on pittsburgh. Yeah it's a real problem. And i think the offensive line to the surprise of no one was the major concern with that group. Going into the season you look at the weapons that they have the onta- johnson of course gets hurt at the end of that game. We'll have to monitor his status going for the steelers haven't given any any indication that it's going to be overly serious but you have the weapons but if you can't protect an agent quarterback there who's getting the ball out of his hands quickly and doesn't appear to be reading defenses the same way and the twilight of his career that we were seeing earlier. It's a real problem. You mentioned all of those defensive injuries. And i think the steelers can handle one two. Maybe even three. But when you look at the cluster situation of being down five starters and that doesn't even include stephen to and who hasn't taken a snap yet and could be lost for the entire season. The steelers were going to put themselves behind the eight ball. And then let's add another layer into it. Mike tomlin electing to punt where the steelers had all the momentum in a fourth in short situation when clearly. his defense was gassed. A lot of curious decision making to say the least and then the steelers of course third and ten. They have a chance to get off the field and get the ball back. You run a safety. Blitz doesn't get home and derek carr stands in the pocket and finds henry rugs. I think this is going to be a long year for the steelers team. A lot of ugly football games and if that defense can get healthy they're definitely going to have to lean on the stop unit and it explains part of the reason that you've seen money pretty well respected coming in on the bengals a plus four and a half and i think you could see a little bit of buyback though at the steelers especially at minus three for me as it relates to that game. It comes down to the health of the defense. Because if you tell me. Tj wada's is their endeavour bush's there. Joe hayden is there now. We're back to the majority of the defense we saw against buffalo. And we've seen with the bengals. They've just been a turnstile. I believe it's nine sacks of joe borough in the first two games so the thing the bengals have been had trouble with is protecting the quarterback and that's the thing that the steelers want to feast on because the bengals have the better offense going into that game but it's a matter of. Can you make joe borough uncomfortable. Yeah i mean so many different factors here. And i think you saw the steelers and bengals both address what they perceived to be major needs through the draft. I mean the steelers had a chance to get a building block offensive lineman at the tail end of the teens where they were drafting. But they decided. Hey we wanted a game. changing back. in nausea harris. Harris is going to be great. The problem is you're going to have to utilize moore's receiver out of the backfield because he's gonna find tough. Sledding running in the running between the tackles and the same kind of thing for the bengals they go out and they get. Joe boroughs college teammate. Jomar chase chase it going to be a phenomenal talent on the outside but you begin to wonder given the duress. Borough has been under through the first two weeks. If this team wouldn't have been better drafting penny soule with the fifth. Pick to try and protect the face of their franchise because no matter how many weapons that you have on the outside if you're running for your lives or you can't stand still in the pocket i. It's going to make for precarious sledding and. I'm very curious to see in a match up this weekend that you mentioned which you teams all familiar with each other trying to figure out who stock can be rising and who's going to be able to right the ship given what we saw last week and and very disappointing efforts from both teams in speaking of that last week was overreaction week and i'm curious if anything what you learn from last week because we saw a lot of narratives going one way or another a lot of these games. We'll get to the minnesota. Vikings later on but the margin of victory or defeat is so slim but at team could be just as easily to know as they could. Oh and two. Is there anything that you're taking into week three. That's helping shape your mindset rob. It's always interesting because you're right when you look from week one week. Two no team has ever as good or as bad as they appeared in that opener. Just ask titans fans who are ready to try and throw the baby out with the bathwater in wake of thirty one thirteen loss to arizona. And then when you get down twenty four to nine against the seahawks you think. Oh here we go again. It's more of the same until derrick henry kind of resurrected that performance allowing them to win in overtime. You talked about the vikings of for me. One of the teams that. I'm very curious to see this weekend. Is the buffalo bills. Buffalo didn't really look poised offensively against your beloved steelers in the season opener but it was a special teams play that really swung the momentum there buffalo at least on the scoreboard appears to get healthy with a thirty five. Nothing win against the dolphins but the dolphins were shell once they lost two. They gave up a forty plus yard. Run early on in that game. Devon single terry and. i don't think all is exactly well with buffalo just yet because you're not going to generate thirty five points offensively with the yardage output. Josh allen hasn't looked like the same quarterback at least through one hundred and twenty minutes that we saw last year warrant that huge payday and rise to the top of the odds board as far as we're concerned as viable mvp candidate so of all the teams that we've seen so far buffalo is going to be the side that i'm watching through a magnifying glass on sunday especially against the washington defense. That's underwhelmed through. Its first two games of the season but comes in with a significant rest advantage. Having played on thursday night against the giants with a couple of extra days to scheme for that high-powered buffalo attack. So taw this is a great transition to nfl week. Three unless are first segment are big mick moneyline parlay of the week. They got the big mac. I got the big mic and the goal of the big mic is just to produce a winning bet. That's all we gotta do. Todd we just got it. Produce a winner in for me. I've got a four team. Money line parlay that pays plus one thirty give me the carolina panthers denver broncos baltimore ravens and the aforementioned buffalo bills so when i looked into this i said all right. Who's going to lose this for me. So in order for this to lose one of these teams has to win either. The texans win the jets win the lions win or washington wins and the exposure. That i saw was also. We've got to road teams being the panthers in the ravens. I usually don't like to have a road team because obviously home teams would be much better. I thought about putting the chiefs in there. But i left them out because it's a division game and i try and create these roles for myself so for me. I know a lot of people are going to say but rob o. You do is take these big favorites. Well guess what this can win when you sort of create a formula like this all. We're trying to do is produce a winning bet. So my four teamer give me the panthers broncos. Ravens and bills taught him curious. Do you have a big mick money. Line parlay what typically for me rob. That's a bad type. That i stay away from only because i've seen so many folks come through the sportsbook especially during my time at caesars. And we used to call out of those folks not so much in the nfl but more college. Football bridge jumpers above all else because they identify fourteen plus favored in college football. And they can't imagine under any circumstance where that team would potentially go down so when you dig through the board you know. I'll go a slightly different direction and kind of look for a two team teaser. You talked about the vikings earlier. I think the vikings make for a phenomenal teaser. Leg to try and be able to take up through variety of key numbers getting them up through the three getting them through the four this six in the seven taking him out to seven and a half and you know what. I'll pair them up with the miami dolphins. I know uncertainty around the quarterback situation with to being ruled out. But i think this is a raiders team overvalued and while the numbers off the board at some shops getting the dolphins anything better than a touchdown that would be my two team teaser to rival your big mick money line parlay for the week and actually i like where you're going out because the next segment is get comfortable being uncomfortable in our goal with this bet is to take something that doesn't feel all warm and fuzzy inside you feel gross when you're laying this down in for me. Give me the vikings plus one and a half taking on the seahawks because this is almost like a principal bet because the vikings are significantly better at home than they are on the road. The reason this makes me uncomfortable. When i'm giving this a randy. Moss eighty four out of one hundred on an uncomfortable scale is because what we see out of kirk cousins. What we see out of the vikings and their propensity to find ways to lose close games and certainly one team that is in tons of close games is the seahawks. Never feel all warm and fuzzy betting against russ but this vikings team went to overtime with the bengals and should have beaten the cardinals. They are just as easily to know team as they are. Oh into team. So what would this line be looking like if they were to know. I can tell you this. They're going to be laying points because of this. Give me the vikings getting one and a half at home is my uncomfortable. Bet what about you. Todd yeah i like the spot quite a bit and this thing was going to set up perfectly on ahead. Seattle hung on against the titans. This would have had all the dynamics in play that you'd want a desperate minnesota team in its home opener ruin the opportunities that have gone by the wayside. Because much like you. I don't think delvin cook foam in that overtime period against the cincinnati bengals which would have given them a chance to win that there. And of course. Greg joseph missing not a chip shot field. Go but one and nfl. Kicker should make a with the game hanging in the balance so this vikings team very easily could be to anno despite all the turmoil that they've dealt with during camp this one's gonna make people real squeamish uncomfortable but this numbers gotten bed up to the point where i really can't ignore the price and it's one that if it hits you feel good about trusting the process and if it loses people are gonna look at you like you have three is and you're the biggest more on the face of the planet and that would be the jacksonville jaguars plus seven and a half against arizona. When you look at this cardinals team they were dynamic offensively against the tennessee. Titans they went out. There took care of business. Chandler jones lived in the backfield. You saw arizona withstand a little bit of adversity last week against the minnesota. Vikings and i think you're seeing a potential superstar coming of age in rondell moore who came into the season arguably as their fourth receiver on the team. But he's had more targets through two weeks than even de'andre hopkins. The defense looks drastically improved. But this has landmine written all over it because jacksonville struggled to move the ball against denver. But i think they're gonna find easier sledding in this game against arizona and don't look now but arizona has a huge divisional match up on deck against the rams. These are the kind of games that i need to see. Cliff kingsbury get. His team focused for go out blow out inferior foes before. I officially believe in them. So with this number leaking up through the price of seven at seven and a half i think the jaguars are don't warrant a big bet by any stretch of the imagination but definitely a value proposition this weekend. What's mindset on bedding. Let's call it the worst teams in the league. Because i remember for years when the browns when their own sixteen in. What would we hear on podcasts. There's so much value on the browns and it's like loss loss loss in. Of course i completely get it. It's not comfortable. A bet on the jags and i love what you're talking about in terms of the opportunity to fade the cardinals. I think myself and so many others don't believe in cliff kings. Mary sir waiting for that shooter dropped. But how do you evaluate the lowest end. When is it just based on the number. Because there's not much that gives you confidence in urban meyer. What we've seen out of trevor lawrence so far either yeah it gets to be significantly more difficult and my number has to be far off from where the market is or i have to find situational components that i think are working in my favor because you mentioned the browns and i was one of those guys that found himself on the browns every week because the market was undervaluing them by a field goal. Maybe even more. In some instances the problem being is things snowball for bad teams a lot faster than they do for good teams. They're unable to overcome that one critical mistake and be able to right the ship and you see it all the time in college football. You better team. That's in control. Suddenly one turnover goes the wrong way and three possessions later. They've taken a seven point lead in it's a fourteen point deficit so it's always difficult to try and do this because inevitably is better human nature. You end up kicking yourself going. What am i doing betting on this kind of garbage expecting good things to happen but at some point there's value in every number and early on in the season i don't think any of these teams have truly cash in their chips and typically finding those owen two teams against teams. That are two zero as where you're going to get a little bit of wiggle room. And the jags fit some of those parameters again not one of the strongest positions. I'll have of the weekend by any stretch of the imagination. Just at seven and a half it warrants a small dabble. Because i think this number is a touch rich and to be quite honest here. I look at denver in arizona. I make denver a favourite over the arizona cardinals on a neutral so the fact that denver closes at a six point road favorite last week and arizona's at seven and a half all the value in the world. Especially through a key. Number is indeed on the jags. Here that being said what it shocked me. If arizona is up twenty one to nothing at the end of the first quarter not at all but you know what thankfully in this business. You don't pay any more if you lose a game by three touchdowns than you do by misfield time expired. Todd when you take these gross is live betting them part of your strategy at all where so often we see like you talked about. They can get down fourteen. Nothing twenty-one nothing. We're all of a sudden more value presents itself. Is that sort of way of betting part of your flow for me. I don't like to double down on some of the dregs of the league. So typically when things don't start well for them. They tend to go in the wrong direction pretty quickly. Where sometimes if the in a game like this. If the jackson get out to an early lead you may be able to create a middle or arbitrage situation coming back with the superior team or at least perceived to be on paper and we saw that last week. Jacksonville gets out to a seven. Nothing lead against denver and that was kind of the highlight of the afternoon for them whereas if jacksonville gets down fourteen to seventeen points. I'm not sure. I want to double down my position. I can know when i'm cooked. I'll take my hat and move on to fight another day rather than chasing bad money with good money and turning what should be a small hole on a particular game into a grand canyon type loss. But what if you don't make the first position and you say i'm waiting for my first position to be when they get down so i'd be like all right. What is more likely in the analytics. Might not support this but is it more likely that the jags get down double digits so it doesn't make sense to me to get in at this number as my first position. Yeah i'd probably go the other way in this instance whereas i'd be more inclined to bet the jags early in the game maybe even with a first-half investment if the number got there our dabble on say first. Quarter money law line. Because i think with a young team like jacksonville. They're going to improve the season goes. I'm skeptical of how urban meyer relate to some of the players and adapt to the nfl game. But you have to imagine you're going to get the best from some of these teams early on. It's not going to be like a veteran quarterback. Trevor lawrence starts out poorly in the first half. He can flip the switch. Like you saw ryan tannehill in the tennessee. Titans do on the road against seattle. It's more likely to go in a negative negative manner late. And you're more or less praying to keep that back door open to come in with a slightly more advantageous price i dig that mindset so last segment we have is pickle loser. Oh what a loser and the goal of this bet is to think opposite. Everybody wants us to pick a winner. But can you identify a losing bet. And i actually had a challenge trying to figure it out this week because there was a lot of small numbers but for me my pick a loser. I'm going to monday. Night is the dallas cowboys laying three and a half at home. And i'm gonna go back to the formula. That actually worked for me last thursday when i was on the giants plus three and a half division matchup team getting more than a field goal. Signed me up with the eagles and so often when you get burned by team one week. You're a little bit gun at take them the next week and i've really learned this also in all fantasy sports a player kills you because you're a year ahead on them and then you don't take them the next year and they break out in for those reasons i see potentially close match up there. Give me the eagles or actually give me the eagles getting three and a half which means my pick a loser is the dallas cowboys. What about you todd. So i'll stay in the same division. And i'll go up to metlife stadium. Who in their right mind wants to try. And back the atlanta falcons in this spot given what we've seen from them through the first two games of the arthur smith era embarrassed week one by the philadelphia eagles. They fought valiantly back to get into the game against tampa late before they were done. In by a couple of non offensive touchdowns the giants extra time to prepare daniel jones look poised in. Turn the ball over. You saw his dual threat ability on full display. But this is still the giants. There's minimal homefield advantage working in their favor this team. I don't believe that should be favored over anybody at this juncture in time and the opportunity for me again to grab an owens you team against another owen team owen to team catching a feel my pick. A loser is the giants I think the falcons our value proposition plus three in our last segment. You were talking about the team. That's down three up. Three throws two interceptions for touchdowns and i just relived. The bet that. I was on of the falcons. Plus twelve and a half last week like boob. They're down three. They got the ball this money. We're going to defeat tom. Brady in like in the blink of an eye. You're like oh my god. Why am i betting. On the falcons. Again i feel so sick there. Number of those instances that occurred throughout the season. and i think that's one of the things for new betters. That are out there. It's going to test your it's going to test your intestinal fortitude and your willingness to back what are perceived to be bad teams because there's no doubt their margin for air is a lot slimmer than when you try and back the kansas city chiefs the baltimore ravens the tampa bay bucks but at the same time. It's all about numbers. It's not about the logos on the helmets. Or the names on the back of the jersey. And i think every team eventually hits. It's price point so you have to know when it's the right time to jump into that deep end back a bad team and hope that you've done your homework the right way where they can exploit you tactical advantage either on the offensive defensive side or maybe even on special teams. Todd really enjoyed jayme. Was you as well as following you on twitter. Where can everybody connect with you. Yeah like you said on twitter at todd firm and is going to be a great avenue in vehicle that you to encourage people to ask whatever questions they want. Don't be offended if i don't have a chance to get to them each and every week but go ahead. Download the bet. The board podcast available. Where all podcasts are. Whether it spotify itunes soundcloud you name it. We did launch the bet. The board pre-game show this year. So it's a first video component to our franchise which is available. Fridays at noon. Eastern and that's available on youtube dot com search out bet the board a great information for bettors of all ability levels. Those are going to be the best mediums to try and find it and cbs sports. Each part of the monday thursday and sunday pregame show try trying offer up some player props analysis and find unique investment vehicles to try. And keep that bankroll in good standing from now until they crown a super bowl champion in the middle of february. And i want to hear from you. What is your nfl week. Three card look like do you have big mick money. Line parlay pick a loser or get comfortable being uncomfortable better the week. You can hit me up on twitter or instagram. At rob cressey also make sure to tag act covers and remember if you want to be a sharp. Don't be a square with your bankroll be disciplined with your money management. Hit to the one two three that that'd be fighting up to that rock up some say i got to the two.

steelers Vikings bengals nfl eagles niners joe borough buffalo rob rob chrissy todd furman Firmin todd football arizona browns Todd todd
NFL Week 2 Monday Night Football: Lions vs Packers, Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Bet The Board

55:05 min | 5 d ago

NFL Week 2 Monday Night Football: Lions vs Packers, Odds, Picks, & Predictions

"That thou board with that right. I bet you twenty bucks can get. You can't look for the end of the year. Only fifteen grand. How they pay debts men his manny. It's the board podcast originally the end. I wanna be right back where i started. I could still pick winners. I can still make money for all kinds of people back home. And why mess up a good thing. Airs pain insider and todd. Welcome in to the the board podcast powered by fan duel. Sportsbook and nfl. Week to monday night football edition. I'm your host. Todd furman joined as always by my steam colleague and co host but now is the perfect time to remind you to go to fan duel dot com slash. Bet the board take advantage of all the generous sign up bonuses that fan duel has in store for you a couple of unique promotions to keep your eyes ongoing for all new users can risk five dollars win one hundred and fifty dollars no matter which side they pick and the jets broncos game this coming weekend and of course they special promotion a week from now for the monday night football showdown between the philadelphia. Eagles dallas pain second week essentially in the books. Were your first thoughts in terms of what we saw unfold. This was one of the more frustrating weeks. And i'm typically over games after they happen. But you know this this recap show here that you have me doing. I suddenly have to relive things monday morning. Post to be cathartic. This is supposed to be a safe space where you can vent you can get it off your chest and by the time we wrap things up. That's when you begin to move forward for the subsequent week i appreciate you making it linger an extra twenty four to forty eight hours team. Play saturday team planned guy team got saturday. We had to totals not get there in the first half but of course full game state under so you know you get those reverse results and if you flip on right. It's it's a winning week and then middle of last week. We took a position for sunday over. Twenty three and a half. First half and rams colts. That's why it got to twenty four. That did not go very well. Cold said two possessions where they have a first and goal from the one and then they got zero points. They're obviously and then another possession where they had second and goal from the three and got zero points there too so Of course over was a great bet despite the ridiculousness and then the full game proceeds to go over and then the one that our listeners know all too well about eagles plus three and a half for us they dominate the first half but they go into the break trailing and i watched that game pretty intently went back and watched this morning downloaded all our metrics and whatnot. They'll gain the forty niners by one hundred and seventy yards the first twenty six minutes of that game and you had the ticky tack call. Go against us on the jalen rieger touchdown. Did he step out of bounds. Was he pushed out clearly reestablished but they claiming on willingly went out of bounds. There and then you have the ninety four yard drive first and goal from the forty niners won you get zero points so you dominate that first half and the forty niners get the momentum score before break yay to say this todd. We've been doing this long enough. Where you kind of understand. The game might be over at that point even if the scoreboard says otherwise when you dominate and you should be up seventeen nothing but you mentally see the scoreboard seven three. Jesus it didn't feel like a four point game at halftime. Those spots are always interesting. I had one of our colleagues who you know. I know quite well. Send me a text. He couldn't get three and a half early on in the week in philadelphia so refrain from betting. Game shoots me a note at halftime and goes. Hey look. is this the opportunity. I need to try and get on. He had an opportunity. Bet philadelphian the money line at a reasonable price. Honestly i said you see the momentum score toback baking breaking drive ninety seven yards the forty niners cover and you might want to try and sit this one out because the exactly what you said you watch enough of these games you start to get the feel for game flow and go okay. That first half went poorly. But i feel like we have a punchers chance despite only being down seven three going into the break. I wasn't overly optimistic about what we're going to see in the final thirty minutes known. I was relatively happy with how the game was playing out. We kind of mentioned jonathan gannon coming up with a more sophisticated game. plan defensively. because that's kind of his mo one of kind of the the giant young stars up and coming as defensive mind loved what he did offensively. We said attack deep. The eagles did that a little bit better. Although i wasn't really in love with some of the stuff other than that right there is a lot of trickery. Pre snap which the forty niners probably aren't the team to do that against they see cal. Shanahan's offense all day at practice with all the window dressing trickery. Priests navin post nap didn't really attack the intermediate area of the forty niners defense. Which you know we knew corner was an issue. Moseley ended up getting downgraded to out. We saw d'arret go out with a knee injury last week. And so you're down your top two corners you call basically you know. Pull josh josh norman. Off the scrap heap thrown out there. And so you want to attack that aaron. It's great that they did it downfield but you also have to do it and intermediate area which the eagles did not do very well there. So very frustrating game from that standpoint because if you get up seventeen nothing there. It's like okay. We took the road trip one sunday night. Football on deck against aaron rodgers. Let's let's shift our focus there. It's always interesting. I mean in the nfl. I think i was taught. I first started in the industry. If you go back there are essentially three momentum place and nfl game and this is an over-simplification for those folks who want to visit me for saying this but you need to those three momentum plays to go your way when you have a dog or short home favourite and i really believe in that eagles forty niners game you know. All the momentum plays early went away the forty niners from the jalen. Rieger push out the forty niners. Who deserves full marks for bending but not breaking on the fourth and goal stand there and then of course the forty niners getting momentum scoreboard for the half that allows them to take a four point lead into the break and for all of our listeners. Out there we normally start monday with the good the bad and the ugly typically. We like to go in the optimistic and positive direction but pain since we've already started on a bit of a somber note relatively speaking. What else was disappointing to you. That you saw unfold over the weekend wasn't shocking in any way. But i thought the steelers offense just kind of proved to be what they are and it was a game against the raiders that i just wanted to stay off completely. Sharp money hit the steelers minus five role in the week. Got as high as six and a half some places sunday morning before. Joe haden endeavour bush got announced out around eleven eleven thirty am dipped back below that secondary. Key number t. J. watt then departs in the first half so pittsburgh was basically without a key cog at each level of their defense offensively. We knew there would be a trainwreck. This season you know you don't win. Many games in two thousand twenty one with less than two hundred fifty yards of offense was what the steelers had last week against buffalo. That's a great win right. You look like oh six and a half point dog on the road won outright easy peasy win expectancy was fantastic led by double digits but the offense was just freaking terrible last week and i don't know if there's going to be this massive fix right. Big ben came out in the post game pressure last week and said we're going to need to rely on her defense this season. It's not really what you want to hear from your quarterback. The offensive line isn't good. So the ground game stinks the past protections poor. Basically what you have if you're a steelers fan and you probably already know this because you've watched it for two seasons. You have a thirty nine year. Old big ben treating the ball like a hot potato with a quick release and he's dinking in dunking the ball down the field accurately into tight windows. Only tour has completed. Shorter throws into tighter windows than big ben through two games. The idea of high risk throws in areas that result in low rewards isn't really like this viable long term strategy on offense but it's really the only option pittsburgh has to this point and now it looks like the day johnson could be out a little bit with with this knee injury. Yeah i think all wait and see if it's an mc l. if it's an acl. no injury. Report official diagnosis there regarding deontay johnson status kind of additional salt in the wound and the final play of the game for those folks may have tuned off not only fantasy implications but of course the best receiver. The steelers have in that roster. You mentioned to pain. And i think a lot of people look. I know it was one of the worst decisions of the day. Buffalo goes down to your neck of the woods. wins thirty five nothing but mass in that dominant performance. The buffalo offense for me still appears to be operating fits and spurts less than five yards per play and josh allen. Nowhere near the quarterback. We saw the world on fire season ago. There's certainly a little little something going on there. No emmanuel sanders is one hundred percent healthy and there was this little lol in their offense after they got up fourteen. Nothing where they turn the ball over a couple of times. The dolphins still had a chance to kind of keep themselves in it and then once it was like fourteen nothing in buffalo is driving kind of flipped off that game. But you're right. It's the offense. Is there something not happening right now. That's that's for sure. The ground game appeared efficient in week. One they start the game with a single terry explosive. Run for a touchdown. So i do expect that offense to try to run the ball a little bit more but josh allens missing on some throws that he didn't miss last year and the offensive line still isn't the best and i think you're working your way in there with some receivers like you know manual sanders. That quite aren't up to speed yet. But you're right. The offense was not humming. Despite you know the points they put on the board. They went over their team. Total of twenty six and a half so they exceeded expectation on the scoreboard. There but down to down. It wasn't the most efficient thing that we've seen from buffalo's offense and i don't think by any stretch. It's a reason to panic with a young football team early on. We've seen it time and time again from super bowl contenders. You don't need to play your best. Football in september and buffalo like everyone else in the division now sits at one and one so for all those bills fans out there that are frustrated with what they've seen it's absolute nothing to be concerned about just yet through only two games. Joe borough pain. I watch that game against the chicago. Bears clearly not alone in responsibility for that. Twenty seventeen lossa. Those folks that grabbed the bengals plus three congrats on getting the best of the number. Count your lucky stars that you're able to push out of that game. Three interceptions on three straight passes. The bears defense seemed to be all over them and suddenly the dominant offensive performance. We saw from borough in the bengals week. One against the vikings doesn't look nearly as dynamic when the vikings get absolutely shredded by the arizona cardinals. Think when you put in to perspective that the bengals were a team that was projected to win six and a half games and they go out and they win at home as an underdog that there is this expectation for them to be better than what they are. And i do think there's an ability to kind of be better down. The road is as borough starts to get a little bit. You know have have more chemistry with his guys. Being sat out the entire offseason basically rehabbing the knee. There wasn't a ton of chemistry there. We think the defense got a little bit better but even last week is more. The the vikings beating themselves with ten first-half penalties and your best player. Delvin cooks fumbling the ball over overtime. When they're going in for you know the potential game winning score but this was you know. I i need to go back and watch bengals. Bears a little closer but once we kind of elected not to go under in the first half and then i see the first score. It's like i don't want infuriate myself. So i didn't watch ton of that but what i did see and what i read and what. I'm looking at metrically this morning. Obviously not the best day for borough three picks on three straight plays. That's an nfl record. And it's a little surprising because the first two picks were bad reads from clean pockets the final. He had pressure in his face. The ball was tipped it. Looked like but you know. This was a guy last year before he goes down with an injury. A hundred and ninety nine consecutive passes as a rookie without a pick so that three picks stretch very you know unlike. Joe borough. The bengals offense was pretty grounded. You know things look better than they appear. I think you know when you when you look at the surface right. Yeah the too late. Drives with touchdowns to chase and higgins both in the final five minutes any kind of mass what transpired throughout that game. I again i. I do think there is this thing to the offense for cincinnati where borough is still working himself back into form. You know. you just can't miss the entire offseason. you can't play one series. In the preseason. And i know for him personally. The focus was getting his body right and not necessarily the playbook in the chemistry with teammates. Now that focus can shift a little bit one thing. I will say for bears. Fans who want a pound their chest in the wake of twenty seventeen win a you talked about it with the steelers not gonna win many nfl football games and your offense gains hundred and six yards and bears fans also who are clamoring for justin field to start sooner rather than later. Be careful what you wish for all in signs point to field being the guy going forward once you know what's wrong with andy. Dalton didn't look good from a non contact standpoint potential torn acl but the bears a robust three point four yards per play in the victory. Everything we saw that look positive against that. Rams defense suddenly not there against the cincinnati bengals. One thing pain. That stood out for me and i know titans fans won't be happy because they feel like we unfairly pick on mike variable around these parts the titans comeback they race a twenty four to nine deficit. Seattle seahawks game. That looked like it was going to get away from early on the titans score. Thirty to twenty nine with thirty seconds to go now credit the titans for fighting back. I off not quite sure why. Mike variable doesn't allow a ten second runoff knowing he's got to timeouts in his back pocket. And you don't wanna give russell wilson anytime but paying the strength of your football team is your offense. Derrick henry is running at will and i mean abusing seattle every chance he gets reba instead of trying to win his offense on the field going for to kicked the extra point putting his fate of the football team. In the hands of a coin flip. Tennessee wins the toss. They still don't score. They get a three and out from seattle and win the game but the decision making there in my opinion that when a negative manner gets masked because of the result. Yes if we all know we can win a coin toss or our defense is going to force it three out. You make that call but a little bit staggering. The titans didn't feel they wanted to try and win it right there on the road in a game or they had all the momentum late in regulation you do have the momentum in just on the surface. You're looking at this as saying. Hey were six and a half point dog here. let's let's play with a little more variants. Let's understand that the best unit on our team is the offense in the worst unit on the opposing team is the defense and if we only have to get two or three yards to win this game and not give it back to russel wilson. Let's go ahead and do that. But ultimately variable chose to kick the pat go into overtime but again it wasn't just that decision. It was like how you managed the clock and allowing the ball to get back into russell. Wilson's hands late. I will say this aside from a couple of those decisions. I think you have to give the titans some credit for being resilient you before the game even starts lose your left tackle andrea and more bizarre so bizarre the situation there you go down fifteen at halftime. Nothing is going. The titans way you have to settle for three field goals in the first half the twelfth man is just rocking. You've got jobbed. On the julio jones touchdown the defense is you'll to getting shredded and as a six point dog back and the defense get some stops. Derrick henry literally put the offense on his back. Henry faced eight plus men boxes on fifty four percent of his runs second most in week two yet. He averaged more than two and a half yards per attempt above expectation. That titans defense pays rebel back with the decision right. They get the monster stop and overtime and they're really the ones that set up the game winning drive but you're right you kind of see the decision making process where doesn't necessarily trust his offense and then you've you know kind of fast forward to sunday night football and you have horrible out there like center. We going for this and overtime. Are we going for this overtime. Lamar what do you want to do. Let's go do this and it's just a different mindset there with an organization in baltimore that is analytically driven. Well you had some. I wanted to go. Because i do want to highlight some of the positive things that we saw over the weekend and of course baltimore for those folks who watch the game. The hands down the most entertaining game of the weekend. The ravens battled back they race. A thirty five twenty four devastate against the kansas city chiefs late fumble from clyde edwards allaire. Baltimore gets the football backhand city full complement timeouts and there was zero hesitation. Pain between lamar. John harbaugh you have to love the amount of trust. He showed in his young quarterback and it also helps when a great spot because sammy watkins two yards short. The first down offense who rolls back out there. It looks like they're they're about half a yard short. So that makes the decision process much easier. But you have to say this right tough spot for baltimore. They are an east coast team. That played on the west coast monday night. That game did not end until well after midnight on the east coast. Another five and a half hour flight back. You were beaten banged up. Didn't have two guys on the align we knew all of the other injuries offensively. Your corner situation was a little bit uncertain as well. So you you kind of slade. The dragon right. That was your kryptonite. We saw what lamar sammy. Watkins were celebrating after the fumble awesome in. Maybe that's the thing that kind of changes your season builds confidence for the future and it was fantastic and other man. You beat the chiefs in saying that. I kind of think it was good for for the chiefs as well because there's all this talk about going seventeen. No they're wanted to run the table this year. And now you get smacked in the face. You don't have that pressure. But i will say this. When i watched the game to me. Everything seemed to go perfect for baltimore in the sense that they kept close enough where they could run the ball and yet here. You are down eleven late. Third quarter patrick. Mahomes has the bolt midfield games over. And you've played the best you possibly could. And he just makes an uncharacteristic interception on third down. I don't know what he's trying to do there. And then even despite that you have the game winning drive sealed delivered. And for whatever reason andy. Reid decided not to run offense. We're just gonna hand it off to clyde edwards hilar- like our ninety seventh best player on offense and we're going to let him determined things. And so that's kind of the interesting part to this. Game is baltimore undermanned. Horrific situation pete's the kansas city chiefs. But it's like. I watched ending you know the kansas city chiefs kinda lost that game. And that's kind of how i viewed but it was a fantastic win for baltimore and i don't think it will end up being about loss for the kansas city chiefs. Either no. I don't think kansas city will come back to a game. They lost and prime time in september. And that's where our season got away from us by any stretch of the imagination. Of course the big showdown in the nfc west. This weekend were afc west. Excuse me with a welcome in the los angeles chargers pay no. I was pretty impressed with matt. Rule defense overall they hold the saints to the lowest yardage output. During the sean payton era saints average three yards per play. Get just forty three offensive snaps and the saints. Never snap the ball once. She might take that back. They never drove inside the carolina. Twenty once their only touchdown came on an eighteen yard. Drive pretty impressive effort from a young defense coming at age absolutely in the panthers. Defense is one pro. Betters really gravitated towards this off season. It was young and it was improving. And you had brian burns. Whose kind of turning into a premier pass rusher at this point you drafted. What most think is shutdown corner. Jc horn jimmy. Chen does a great job. Rome in the middle of the field. So you have talent at every level. Now you did face. Zach wilson. Megan his first. Nfl start on the road. Fans in the stands. James in the saints were in a prime letdown position but they were fantastic. Carolina got jameis winston on sixty one percent of his dropbox. The pressure was incredible. Whether it was natural whether it's manufactured james had a passer rating of four when pressured and zero when blitzed his zero point zero to completion percentage overall fourteen percent below expectation. There are some. you know real players here. on carolina's defense. The weakness of the team though is still the offensive line. We saw the jets registered. Eighty percent pass rush win rate week one. They did a good job though here. Holding up against the saints defensive front. That just dominated green bay. If carolina's offensive line can gradually improve the season. Panthers become pretty interesting here talk especially in an nfc that other than maybe the top of the pecking order doesn't have a clearly defined middle class so to speak. I mean we know the rams in box will be there in the thick of things. We know that the nfc is going to be an absolute beast but who knows. Carolina has a chance to crack the back end of the party. A more than winnable game coming up on thursday. Where they're a touchdown. Plus road favorite against the houston texans quarterback. We've blasted in multiple times on this. Very podcast over the last couple of years. I do want to give him props for performance on thursday night. That of course being daniel jones twenty to thirty two for two hundred and forty nine yards nine carries ninety five yards rushing touchdown. More importantly didn't turn the ball over. Once his mastery of the washington football team would've continued. Had it not been for an aaron call from zebras that the nfl sent a nice letter of apology to the new york football giants. About what a nice letter. Doesn't that just fix everything. Remind you eighth grade you know and you try to date older women and they just say pay and we have to let you down gently. It's just not gonna work out there. Is that nice little transition post eighth grade. When you're about to be a freshman and you're kind of mingling with with that with that crowd a little bit and you feel like you're you're just invincible as you're talking to the older class getting back on on on On task here. Daniel jones deserve better and we talked about his ability to handle washington's defense over his career in that did not change and we also outlined how washington's defense is not as good as what people believe it to be they are overrated right now. The perception is higher than than what the reality is of that defense and daniel jones is willing to attack washington through the area in on the ground average ten yards a carry impressive through the air to. He was pressured on forty five percent of his dropbox but is completed air yards. Were nine point two almost a full yard better than any quarterback that's played yet this week. His completion percentage three yards better than expectation. Now you can't settle for five field goals on the highway and expect to win. But the giants were the clear-cut right side in that game from a spread perspective. The of outright. And as you eluded to write like just poor luck with the reps botching that felt like a real rough week overall for for for the of this this. This week didn't inconsistency let's call it consistency on a variety of fronts and hopefully it gets rectified. They're still nod in midseason form by any stretch. But yeah i think there were a number of game changing place. They kind of get swept under the rug. So i'm with you in. That regard did seen interesting. Note may have to dig into it. Apparently the last twelve games played in the nfc east between teams in that division against one another the underdog eleven and one against the spread or maybe twelve in one now at this point so i think it speaks to the level of parody. We've seen in that division from top to bottom but something to keep tabs on as we'll have big showed on a monday night football between the cowboys and eagles as well. What else stood out to you in a positive manner of things that were pleasant surprises over the weekend. I think we probably go to teddy bridgewater because that was one of those weird games where there is an inflated line and that was the great debate all week. Are we taking jacksonville in their home. Opener with a line. That should have been you know or or would have been two and a half last week. We've now crossed three of the four. And we're on the six. Is there enough value. And we saw jacksonville. Get out to an early lead but teddy bridgewater was fantastic again. We kind of said this coming into the season that denver was projected to face the very easiest schedule of passing defenses. Jacksonville is one of those. But what i love to see his ted. He's pushing the ball downfield this year and he's keeping his accuracy. Almost eleven intended area words per throw yesterday at the accuracy. Nine percent better than expectation. Teddy was better under pressure and when he was blitzed than he was from a clean pocket. Pressure on thirty seven percent drawbacks but didn't have a single turnover worthy throw. So it's it's pretty clear at this stage. That bridgewater is confident right now. He's heard the whispers of of being a game manager eddy's expanded his game a little bit. He took to to push the ball. Deeper and denver has the weapons and the schedule to be extremely efficient through the air. All season tell you you talk about his weapons. Portland son looked very healthy in a second game back now knows he can assert himself as their number one while jerry. Judy sideline think it allow him to build some report with teddy. That secondary is one of the best in the league. If not the best and as you mentioned and we talked about in the pre season podcast schedule that's beyond favorable for denver to build cement him and be come formidable in the afc and what we talk about denver and what their defense did pain rookie. Reminded i guess over the weekend. Why rookie quarterback's rnd rookies. Trevor lawrence struggled mightily zach wilson. Three interceptions in his first five passes against that new england defense justin fields albeit coming in. Relief didn't look like he was processing the nfl game nearly as quickly as he needs to know. Of course all those things can change. And then there was davis mills. Who stepped in for tyrod taylor. Going eight of eighteen one touchdown one interception for shade more than one hundred yards. I think it's always fascinating to try and figure out what these rookies can bring to the table and week one because fan base is obviously c. A first round. In the case of the texans a third round quarterback kind of being the saving grace and the silver lining. But these guys have to learn to walk before they run and don't want anybody to panic prematurely Some of these guys may struggle in difficult situations. Davis mills trevor lawrence justin fields. Zach wilson extremely schmaltz sample size but right now number one. Two three and four in terms of worst completion percentage compared to expectation. Davis mills is as you alluded to the first pick. Houston had past. Draft is the third rounder. I think he's a guy with some upside but he's not an nfl starter right now. Trevor lawrence very disappointing. I was more disappointed in his week. One performance i know. It's on the road in front of a hostile crowd but houston's defense is is no great shakes. this was obviously a more difficult task and ultimately what kept me off taking. The inflated price was a young quarterback with a very vanilla offense against vic fangio defense. That's extremely difficult justin fields. We saw him kind of get tossed in there. Let's see what it looks like with a game plan. That's actually devised for him. Very fair. point yet wilson mean. Could you faced tougher defenses. So far i mean carolina's defense was fantastic. And then you get bill belichick. I mean we know. His history facing young quarterbacks so handy looked plays denver. this weekend. I mean talk about a tough trifecta for zach wilson. Dude gonna come out of there going. I'm going to need a mental stability coach to try and keep peace of mind. Yes and the offensive line. You know the the old line which was was built up by joe. Douglas this offseason suddenly without its very best part and mci becton. so he's not getting blindsided protection either So that that's all these teams right. The reason these young quarterbacks are on these teams because they weren't very good to begin with right and so you're playing for poor team. You're going up against some tough competition. Sps blue specifically. It's my cac wilson. And so that's really where the struggles are coming in. But let's give them some time and hopefully things pan out for these guys. The one had will ask you sheriff before we transition here. It would be a disservice both in entertainment. And i think something that we like discussing. What did you think of mike mccarthy late in that game that i think i tweeted out that may have been the worst clock management. I've seen from an nfl head coach in quite some time. No idea what the hell that was. I mean there is no justification for the way. Mike mccarthy handled the final minute plus of that game. I thought it was a great start to the drive. He was methodical. he went are. We're gonna win it with our offense on the field. We're gonna make sure that the chargers don't have a chance to get the football back pain. How the hell do you run. Thirty seconds off the clock. You have timeouts left there and greg. Well we know that he's got the ability hit long field goals. This guy has been accurately wasn't in week one and you settle for a fifty six yard field goal as the game winner as time expired instead of trying to pick up another fifteen to twenty hours to win this thing. I loved the drive. Initially it was like we're just cool calm collected. The situation is not going to impact us. We're just gonna methodically move. This puppy downfield. We're going to kick a game winning field goal. The chargers are not going to see the ball off. It was awesome and all of a sudden. It's like what in the world is going on here. Dallas got one play off the final thirty three seconds and they had a timeout. I can't believe column more called the run play. That was the most botched endgame. I've seen in a long time in the greatest part is the press conference afterwards provided even more entertainment. Mike mccarthy said he didn't want settle for fifty six yarder but several problems arose. He's mccarthy one of the players came off the field that shouldn't have just a communication error. He then blames the stadium. I don't know if you've heard the shea said the digital clock and so i've been dying out. I heard this. He then proceeds to say kellen moore had issues too with the clock was blocked by camera guy and couldn't see and so it was just excuse in lie after lie so but kind of reeling this back in even with pollard as dynamic as you shouldn't call a run and kellyn does call run as soon as pollard. Stop call your time out there. Yeah when he eight seconds left at that point the entire playbook is open. The entire field is still open. At that point. You can throw a seventeen yard. Seem over the middle. Still clock the ball and have plenty of time to run your field. Goal you out there. And let's begin at here like mike. Mccarthy isn't a good coach. And i understand the internet age that we're living in but if i'm jerry jones. I'm expecting more from one hundred sixty million dollar quarterback to like if i'm dak like what the fuck is this just a running play. I'm changing that like if you think for a second. Tom brady peyton. Manning aren't checking out of that bullshit. Run play you're out of your mind so like for me. Doc isn't removed from shoulder. Some of the blame here to at the very least call a timeout. Have like a an understanding of time in situation. If you're i mean pain. Shane felker audibly out of that. Play matt saracen in his second. Start starting quarterback of the dillon. Panthers knows that he's got audible away from a run to try and preserve little time at the end of the game but again these are the things we talk about that. I think fans go. Well we won the game. What does it matter. Don't ever let the results mask some of the deficiencies in the process. Because if you make mistakes over and over again you can get away within a short period of time but over the long haul it's going to rear its ugly head and i think it's a perfect microcosm for the way things work handicapping when we talk about closing line value. We talk about good bets that lose in bad bets that win. Don't fall victim to confirmation bias and just because you get a good result. Let dissuade you from doing the right things. They're going to pay dividends over the long haul. We saw this coaching staff on hard knocks and it was so embarrassing that i couldn't finish watching some of the episodes i mean even the special court and special teams coordinator john fossil great guy and he's come up with some innovative things right. I mean he was the guy that was responsible for like the on side kick last year in the atlanta comeback. You got this guy. Talking to twenty two year old kids telling them running a reward and this this is one of the worse compiled coaching staffs in the entire league. Yeah i mean it's one of those things for the cowboys with so many offensive weapons at their disposal. You go out there. your score. Fourteen points early on that game was rather bizarre from variety of fronts. I don't think the charges were overly good by any stretch of the imagination but have to think that there are over betters. Who are rejoicing. With the way things worked early believe the first in that game came in the third quarter. And it's still never got anywhere close to sniffing the total pace and tempo clearly play a role there. And we'll see the cowboys again. As we mentioned on display a week from today playing host the philadelphia eagles and the charges will have their most daunting test and the division when they go to arrowhead to take on the chiefs anything else from a good bad and ugly standpoint did. He thinks we're touching on before. We pivot real quick to look at lines. We're diving in to the barn burner. We have on tap between the lines and pack. I was going to. But let's save it for chargers. Kansas city but i will frame it this way much more difficult being a head coach than defensive coordinator. There are not some. There's there's some issues going on with the chargers. Both with joe lombardi and brandon staley nice little tease more reason to tune in on thursday. As of course the chargers and chiefs will be one of the marquis games that will break down in great detail all right look at headlines pain from fan duel sportsbook new england though. You're not bringing the play to the new orleans saints. Look ahead number. There had new england listed as a modest one point favorite in the wake of their seventeen sixteen lost the dolphins the saints had looked like the greatest thing since sliced bread and their dismantling of the green bay packers. Suddenly new england goes out. There takes care of business against the jets. The saints could move the football at all and their loss to the panthers. And we're looking at new england fulfill goal favorite on sunday afternoon. It's interesting because let's see what what the saints look like right from. They kinda came down to earth. You know they've been dealing with situations a home away from home for a while now. What impact does that have. Typically some trends in the nfl third straight road game. Not the best. I think we're starting to see what new england is if you look metrically. They should have beaten the dolphins and then they come out in the exceed expectation by a wide margin against the jets. And so that's kind of what you're seeing here is. I think this is a line. That now says new england's for real the defense that got a lot of its parts back whether it was opt out injuries also a couple off season additions as well. The defense is for real. And that offensively mack jones gives them a much better chance to be multidimensional and have some efficiency through the air. Let's also monitor some of the saints injury situations. Does marshon lattimore return. This week does does davenport shot. Do four or five of the rotational. Deb guys defensively return ad d. Get your starting centerback. So there's some some question marks there also with some injuries and and that's why this line is is currently where it's at modest move but onto a key number between a pair of two teams and metlife stadium the giants extra time to prepare. They'll welcome in arthur smith. In the atlanta falcons look ahead at fan duel. Sportsbook made the giants a two and a half point favorite now out to a full field goal. You can see some justification in this number simply because we all think the giants probably should have one in a tough spot thursday night and now you do get that extra time. We'll say the falcons showed better here against tampa offensively. They did some things that were substantially better than the opener against philadelphia. Arthur smith was more aggressive. Arthur smith was more clued into what is offense could do better right. You're relying on offense of line to run the ball all the time and again and we got to kind of have to air this ball out a little bit more and so he took some large steps in week. Two as a head coach which you like to see. Let's see where this line trends always interesting to see how some of these numbers start to move around and last but not least a modest move. I'll be at one coming off the key. We haven't seen green bay play. San francisco look ahead price for sunday night. Football at faneuil. Sportsbook had the niners e. three point favorite that number out to three and a half or even four in some spots up to four fan kind of the top of the market. I could be wrong and correct me. If i am but i could have sworn at some point this off season prior to some of the uncertainty surrounding aaron rodgers that the look ahead line for the game of the year stuff had green bay a favourite and a pretty substantial one that much. I don't have to go back and look at some of the reports that i get. I don't remember seeing them. A favorite. But i definitely don't think it was the forty niners even close to a key number. It wasn't yeah so it'll be interesting to see. Obviously this line will come off the board right before kickoff tonight of of green bay detroit and so if you see an edgier you probably should go attack it now but It it is an interesting number at this point. And it's an open that that says san francisco wins by about four touchdowns. But i i in saying that if green bay goes out and covers tonight and looks itself. That certainly isn't going to reopen for. So that's that's the great debate here. Yep for sure and it's a match that has not exactly been kind to the packers in the past as you've seen forty niners imposed physically multiple times in the last couple of years but again that will bear watching based on sunday night. Football's results all right onto the final game of the nfl slate. For week two takes us to lambofield. Green bay will welcome in a division rival. And it's green bay and eleven and a half point favorite total in the game of forty eight and a half pain at fan duel. Sportsbook the detroit. Lions have not played on a monday night since october. Fourteenth two thousand nineteen a game. They lost twenty three twenty two to green bay amid a myriad of miscues that should have had detroit winning that game outright. It's been fifteen years since the packers start a season two. It's never happened under aaron rodgers leadership and when you look at green bay while they come into this one off the worst loss of aaron rodgers career. Thirty five point. Defeat at the hands of the new orleans saints fewest points. Green bay has mustard in a aaron rodgers. let's start we actually began the second. Half when you look at the packers six straight up and six against the spread in a limited sample size coming in off loss under the floor and the packers will become the first team favored by double digits after a thirty point loss since the two thousand fourteen eagles and only the twelfth team to get thrust into this role since the nfl merger back in one thousand nine hundred seventy but the silver lining if for green bay since two thousand five teams favored by double digits. The week after losing by twenty plus points a robust sixteen and seven against the number. I gave you all of that. Pain to ask the biggest question of all in this matchup. Detroit have anything in the secondary that can slow down a green bay passing attack if it starts to play downhill tonight. Aaron rodgers is certainly chomping at the bit to get back out there after his largest lost ever seeing this secondary. Which you're kind of hinting isn't very good. It's all accurate right. I mean lions defense. Can't stop the pass dead last in defense pass efficiency last year dead. Last in passing touchdown rate allowed week one against san francisco. Lions defense allowed fourteen point one yards per pass attempt in a seventy percent passing success. Rate the first three quarters and now you're number one corner and jeffrey kudos is out. There is some buzz rolling around this week that the saints may have figured out how to defend the packers in. That's going to be the blueprint moving forward. Let's say i mean the saints. Basically played cover to shell. They didn't send extra rushers. They dropped defenders to stop intermediate passes and they had their backside defender. Stay home to negate. Some of what. Aaron rodgers likes to do with roll outs and boots. That style works if you can stop the run with your front four and five or six guys in the box. And that's what we saw against the saints. The packers were held a two point nine. Carry a twenty percent rushing success rate. They didn't record a single explosive run. So the saints dominated in the trenches despite playing with this light box and then the game got out of hand in green bay had to pass if you look at aaron rodgers though last season during his mvp season when he faced any variation of two deep safeties his passer rating dipped twenty. Two points is adjusted. Net yards per tempt declined. One point one yards his touchdown to interception ratio is a shade over two to one. Devante atoms production was substantially worse against two high safeties as well but again single high coverage right cover one or cover three aaron rodgers and davante adams just ate all season right when adams was targeted against cover cover. Three at a league-high thirteen touchdowns eighty two percent of his targets. Rogers at a one. Forty passer rating when targeting rogers When targeting atoms in that coverage detroit last week against san francisco played the highest rate of cover three and they also blitz to the highest rate in the lake. The exact opposite. Of what the saints and dennis allen did the opposite of what you have slowed aaron rodgers down a little bit last season and then again in week one. So maybe aaron glenn changes things runs defense that he didn't intend to run and throws a wrinkle or two here with extra day of prep. I'm not sure. Trade has the defensive pieces to even attempt to mimic this. You know they're defensive. Line is not very good couple. Geyser banged up along the line for this game whether they play. Let's see certainly gonna be one hundred percent jebel lions defense the finish twenty-ninth and defensive line yards last season twenty seventh in pass rush win rate any projections that i saw for the detroit defensive line coming into the season had the lions defensive line basically bottom third of the league so i don't even know if they have the talent or the pieces to attempt to mimic what gave aaron rodgers trouble last year. And what the saints didn't week one. This just kind of feels like a get right game for the packers on this side of the ball. What you mean. The lions allowing thirty plus points in seven straight games flirting with the nfl record for futility if they can make it eight tonight is in a harbinger of things to come for them putting together. A lockdown defensive effort against the packers often embarrassing performance. Yeah and it's just you know not not not a great match up you know we all look looking like oh yeah like you know. Detroit's defense is bad and they struggle in the secondary but again even like some of the scheme element of this detroit is going to do. At least how they wanna be built with aaron land in how they execute in week one is the stuff that green bay just absolutely shreds. Yeah i can't imagine a green bay if they're going new Believe they have title. Aspirations should struggle in any way shape or form with an extra day to prepare against this lion. Stop you now. The other side of the ball. I think probably gets a lot more fascinating when you're talking about a green bay defence at generated just five pressures on jameis winston the entire game last week in four quarterback hits. Things don't get any easier was the zip area. Smith put on short term. I are and the one thing we've seen from green bay over the years paying. You're banging the drum for this years ago. The way to beat this packers defense. That's a little bit lighter. Upfront is to establish the ground game and use a physically imposing offensive line. That's one area where maybe detroit has the personnel to put some stress in green bay. Defensively you get. That furball situation handled the. I think it's still may come up again. I didn't exactly prepare for this podcast. In the fact that i have no water anywhere in my office so i'm trying to hack my way through this because you know what i am the model of intestinal fortitude. So when you say prepare you meant the water situation actual preparation. The actual preparation is there. But the waters allen drug is the the gallon jug is not by your side. I think it's sitting on the kitchen counter. I'm not gonna lie. We're certainly playing through the elements. I'm talking to you on a different phone. Because i didn't have the other one on the charger all weekend. And so here we are. We're just mac in a work situation. We're making it work you. If everything went the way we drew it up this business would be way too easy even the content creation let alone actually winning games at the window. sometimes you got to fight through a little bit of adversity. i like it. So you know the lions offense is good. It's certainly not good enough to get in a shootout here. Their weakness however might actually be a strength tonight right. they're going to need to be old school. They're going to have to run this antiquated run. Happy offense with anthony lynn short in this game limit. Possessions rely on the very best part of this team which is the lions offensive line. You can look at the final score last week against san francisco. Thirty points in that gough threw three touchdowns and think. Wow it was garbage. Time though san fran already have their bags packed in the first half goff threw for three and a half yards and attempt an thirty two passing success rate with a pick but the lions ground game was actually really good last week. Five point to a carry in the first half at four explosive runs the weaknesses. You mentioned. todd is green bay upfront. One of the smith brothers is also out last season. They got bullied along the defensive line. Finish twenty fourth in line yards twentieth in run. Stop win rate over. Fifty two percent of opponent runs greatest successful. The lions have to be able to run the ball short in this game to stick within the number period when gough does throw it the running backs. You're probably going to be involved here because one. He loves checking the ball down and to the lions receiver. Group is both poor and banged up. So i would expect when gough does throw at a heavy dose of de'andre swift and jamaal williams out of the backfield and his revenge game. The packers weren't great. Defending running back passes last season gave about eight and a half yards a reception. Joe berry is obviously the new. Dc came over from the rams so different scheme which could help in that area but the rams were world slightly better defending that type of past than the packers worse. Let's see if the scheme helps that but there's just not much On this side of the ball ta either the lions can lean hogs upfront and run the ball or this probably gets ugly. How dare you not play some respect on some of these lions receivers when they're number one at least on paper is most likely quintas fist. And all you read this week out of the detroit. Free press is how optimistic alliance are about a player named trinity benson who they picked up three days before the first game of the season and they want him to suddenly catapulted into being a prominent piece of their offense. Hey trinity if you're out there listening go out there and prove me wrong. But i don't think that's exactly a ringing endorsement for what the lines are going to get in there. Receiving game knowing that tyrod williams expected to mess with a concussion places them a in a bit of a perilous situation. One thing i do want to ask him about two two things were. You asked me a question here. Number one is trinity's father likely came up with that name in a strip club and number two. You pay for the detroit. Free press you pay dollar. No no no. I've read this answer van. I read the free articles. It was a rough weekend at the window. So i couldn't afford to get the six months of access for couldn't pony pony the dollar if i- ponied up a dollar for every newspaper that wants me to pay to read their stuff. Just get sports. Books advertise their. I'm sure our partners at fanned will be more than happy to advertise. Whether it's the clarion star-ledger the detroit free press or any other newspaper out there and get articles. That paywall thing is rather maddening. I'm not gonna lie pain. This is turned into streaming television. Where no one's come together to like offer this package of all the streaming networks. They're just all doing their own thing. Now the same thing with the with the written articles like it's the process of putting in your car to pay a dollar. That just boggles my mind. It's all about micro transactions now and recurrent billing and everything else and don't get me started on streaming services and all of that. Because i think i pay for every single one of them to watch european soccer leagues and lord knows what else that ends up accumulating faster than my direct tv. Bill ever did one thing. I did want to ask you about in terms of relationships here. If you're matt leflore now granted. You're with jared goff since two thousand seventeen but how does that level of familiarity you think impact the way green bay can go about preparing for him. Yeah absolutely factor in this game. Which is going to kind of keep tucked in the vest. But it's certainly something that he's seen all the time right. And that is going to play a factor in this game. But i think at this stage. We know what jared goff is so. It's not something that's too far outside. The box kind of hinted at his production. The first half when this scheme that detroit wants to implement is is out. That right second half. You're adjusting to the scoreboard. And so this is a quarterback that likes to drink and dunk his way down the field. And that's why he's now in detroit and not in sunny calvin and so when he goes to throw the ball here. It's going to be a lot of tight ends and running backs and it just comes up to you know the new dc to to get that handled. I mean if you are the packers tonight. Your defense should be playing in a phone booth. I want jared goff to attempt to beat me down the field deep with a receiver core. That is not of an nfl standard. I'm not letting that ground game just chunk me to death. Four five six seven yards a clip as my offense sits on the sideline than aaron rodgers. Picking splinters out of his ass. I want an aggressive defensive approach. And that'll be interesting to see if there is that adjustment from the packers defense because it's from that brandon staley. Mantra defensively right. It's we're going to play with five defensive backs we're going to force teams to run the ball which is less efficient. That game plan needs to change tonight. There needs to be more mass in the box. And if you can stop the run then this game gets ugly. Get excited i know. Everyone will be glued to the edge of their seat. Watching the jamaal williams revenge game tonight at lambeau. Green bay and overwhelming favourite at fan duel. Sportsbook water remind. All of you are loyal listeners. Fan to a sportsbook dot com slash. Bet the board plenty of great promotions available for you bet boost everything you can think of to try and take advantage of inefficient markets. That might be out there. Thirty two one. Promotional be available. Starting tuesday for philadelphia against dallas. We're talking about all new users risking five dollars having a chance to get one hundred fifty dollars return on investment that same thing for denver and the jets restrictions do apply so read that fine print and you put yourself in a good spot. All pain last word goes to you before shutting it. Down for the deck all right dolla. Got a man a few words this discussion last week. yeah. I know. But that's why i wanted to. You're gonna close it out. Oh you're in. You're the opposite of what we discussed but mixed it up and then we go back to wednesday. You're gonna tell me you're gonna text me after the show and go. You know what there was something else i wanted to say. And you're not going to be able to say it so all of our listeners. You're hearing and your first but all right we're done we. We've done enough damage for monday morning. Best of luck for all of you. Our loyal listeners. Out there with whatever way you choose to play monday night football or anything else in the next forty hours. We'll be back with you on wednesday with college football action in the meantime. Hopefully we'll see you at the window. Thanks for to the board. You can catch todd and pain every monday. Wednesday and thursday during football season. Breaking down the biggest. Nfl and college football games and to make sure you don't miss any free. Best bets subscribed to bet the board on. Itunes google. Play spotify or wherever. You listen to podcasts.

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NFC West Betting Preview: 2 NFL Best Bets! Kyler Improvement, McVays Confidence, Russell Wilson MVP

Bet The Board

1:03:27 hr | 1 year ago

NFC West Betting Preview: 2 NFL Best Bets! Kyler Improvement, McVays Confidence, Russell Wilson MVP

"Along. That thou board with. Those Bet You twenty bucks I can get you can't for the end of day illnesses. How they? Pay Debts, men, his manny it's the board podcast. Really. The and Right back where I. Could still pick winners. Can still make money for all kinds of people back home and why mess up a good thing airs pain insider and todd. Bet The board podcast powered by Fox Bent I'm your host Todd Furman join as always by my steam colleague and cohost ago on the only pain insider. What's the good word my man Living the dream, my friend trying to grind away obviously a lot different SPA? Eleven's living the dream. There's no complaints at all about getting a little Stanley Cup playoff hockey between the bruins and Hurricanes Brighton early, obviously, not the best news as far as the sports landscape is concerned, I'm not sure if we wanted to address that or just sweep it all under the rug but. This is the world we live in fortunately, and thankfully pain our beloved NFL is full speed ahead that will get chiefs and taxes on a fateful Thursday night early September. That's all we can hope for just keep during the content. That's kind of why with this point we've prepared for the NFL and we cut back college football prep fingers crossed. We get a little of that. I will say I mean when you talk about opportunity cost at I talked to a couple of other handicappers out here. You're one of the first guys tell me hey, look i. want to scale back some of the work you're doing on those power five conferences that I was plowing through during June and July terms out that was A. Decision at least a few of the leagues that I started with initial prepped. for May, ultimately pay dividends even if we don't get college football for real until late September I'm such a guy man. Aren't. You. I wouldn't go that far but I'll say you're a man of the people. Hopefully, our listeners have taken advantage of the first to preview podcasts we rattled off, of course, leading the AFC east and the transition for the Patriots along with the NFC that appears to be a two-horse race and pain before we get into the topic at hand that will be the NFC west becomes one of the more fascinating divisions in the entire NFL this year. Wanted to get your take real quick on all the players you know a lot of impactful guys especially on the defensive side of the ball opting out for New England, and of course, you had one of the biggest playmakers on the jets roster doing the same given the protocols in place for Covid nineteen this season the Patriots is the big one we've already broken down. The AFC says you alluded to that was the first podcast we did so. Go back and give that a listen. There's the best bet in there as well. But I'm looking at the Patriots the NFL is moving forward towards this analytical approach even more than it has over the last few seasons and similar to baseball with war. We can now track like this approximate value over replacement level in the NFL. Look at pro football reference. They are already said that the Patriots lost more talent this off season than any team in the NFL since two thousand three that was before Patrick Chung and dont`a hightower and you have. Your ace special teamer Brandon bolden. GUYS OPTED OUT If there's a coach they can kind of camouflage these departures, it certainly bill Belichick, but the loss is to me are just so abundant. I don't love all the narrative based things. As you know, it's really tough to quantify those but I think if you disregard them altogether. You're probably a full. I think you have to look at what this means because dont`a hightower is a team captain. You have bill belichick greatest coach to do it I think his style obviously grinds on you. It's GonNa wear you down. We've heard NFL players leave. New. England say like how difficult it was just wonder what these opt-outs mean because it's more than just health in my mind. It kind of indicates that when we're super bowl contender players are willing to run through that brick wall for check but when we're projected to be about five hundred. Suddenly don't WanNa run through that wall, and if there's any ounce of truth to that I, think it's going to have a trickle down effect the attitude I think it permeates throughout the team even for guys that have an opt out what it means when they see all their leaders. decided to not participate this season, the jets so it is. I was GONNA say I mean we know the jets and will, of course, talk about the impact Jamal Adams will have me get to the Seattle seahawks. Cj Moseley. D all of a sudden I mean, what's he played one game in two years for the amount of money and king's ransom that they sent his way. Tough tough between him and John James. Those contracts aren't looking so great. So that was your your leader in the middle of the defense huge loss and I think it puts more onus on that Sam Darnold Adam Gates relationship that we covered on the AFC's podcast that offense is going to have to be significantly better. Now, that is a massive loss. We know it's not a position that has an abundance of talent on the jets roster I. Mean we saw when Cj Moseley went out and they got hit with a slew of other injuries they were starting practice squad players as their lead linebackers they're getting chewed up and coverage. Moseley's a huge loss. Pretty wild to think about all the dynamics that will have to address handicapping. Of course, as we get closer to week one, we'll talk about the impact of fans in various buildings and everything else that a lot of our listeners veterans that have been with us from day one, some of the folks that may be listening to this podcast with the very first time we'll begin understand goes in. Handicapping, not just the impact of one player coaching scheme and everything else along those same lines. But I feel pain you said this perfectly talking about the relationship between Adam Gates and Sam. Darnold when you look at the NFC west, I think we have a bundle of unique quarterback and head coach pairings that will get to and much like we did with the first two preview podcasts rather than any. Particular order we'll go in alphabetical make it simple. But before we do that, let's discuss just early share briefly what the odds look like Fox back to win the NFC west. The San Francisco Forty niners of course are defending divisional champs, their price that a shade better than even money right behind the Seattle Seahawks plus two, twenty five. Then you have the rams at seven to two and it's the. Arizona cardinals picking up the rear at nine to one. Meanwhile, the cardinals win total sits at seven and a half shaded to the over and since we're starting there I, think the biggest question I have to ask you would we define year one between cliff Kingsbury and Kyla Murray as a successful marriage but a strong foundation that that group is capable of using to build going forward I think so. We. Still don't know if Kingsbury can run an entire team couldn't at Texas Tech Thing was twenty three in forty. If you remove FCS opponents in in Kansas from his record policies, they're Kansas. Kansas counts FBI program at least theoretically you know we still don't know if the cardinals organization has the right defensive mind even in Vance Joseph he if he can be trusted to operate on this island essentially without help from his head coach but I think we can say with conviction. Kings varies one of the better offense of minds we saw last year had a willingness to adjust and adapt on the fly with a makeshift align, and he didn't have a true number one receiver. The running back for a good chunk of the season. He didn't like it was pretty impressive how he adopted. Now. You have these added weapons. You have chemistries you alluded to I think the expectations in your two for both cliff in cuyler much higher. So I think we're GONNA see certainly an increase in offensive production this year but I like what I saw at least initially in both their rookie campaigns in the NFL. When you look at Cuyler Murray last year started slow but. Gradually, pick things up and made some of those strategy. You'd like to see from a rookie quarterback I mean thirty seven, hundred passing yards, twenty touchdowns. Twelve interceptions led all rookies and completion percentage better than sixty four percent and the aforementioned passing yards five, hundred, forty, four rushing yards trailed Lamar Jackson amongst quarterbacks and I think pain for me the decision making that I saw look significantly better late in the year. Then when we had a game against the Baltimore Ravens, we went over the. Total and Arizona looked ill equipped to get into the end zone. Now you bring in a big time weapon De'andre Hopkins Statistically, speaking his ninety six plus catches and four the last five seasons eleven hundred receiving yards five of the last six years, and since two thousand thirteen hopkins is third in the NFL in receiving yards with six touchdowns over those last five years. How big an impact can hopkins have alongside the aging wonder Larry Fitzgerald and another emerging talent in Christian Kurkin is receiving core. Give Murray that bona fide number one receiver on the outside. It's huge. You mentioned Fitzgerald is day one hall of Famer, but he is getting a little older. Christian. Kirk has a great report with cuyler from their days at am and I think he's projected to ascend a little bit neither would be number one guys at this point pass you know. I think when you look at where they are in their careers. Christian. Kirk certainly ascending fitzgerald a little bit older. But the receiving options were bleak last season I mean David Johnson who appears to be playing with a piano on his back these days had the third most targets for the cardinals you look it's the injuries they suffered to the receiver group. It's a reason why Kingsbury offense was number one in the NFL and screen pass percentage twenty, two percent of all the passes were screens. But I like Hopkins obviously, if you look at where he operates, which last season was outside, sixty, four percent of his snaps on the outside, you mesh that with where cuyler was best where he had his most success throwing as a rookie it was outside to receivers and tight ends when you look at cuyler when he through to the right side of the field in the air fifteen yards or more, the cardinals were nine percent better than league average passing success rate twelve percent better than league average on those same throws to the left side. So you add hopkins into the mix, he's gotten ability to run routes and create separation. I think that's really going to bode. Well, if you look last season Hopkins, called it a down year for him. He still averaged two point, seven yards of separation per route run. That was better than a lot of big dudes outside that. Get All the praise Michael Thomas Amari Mike Evans obgyn digs hopkins was better in separation than those guys. So that's huge for cuyler. The one thing we touched on it a little bit back in March that I'm still monitoring with Kyle a close eye on it. is how Kylie throws the ball over the middle. If you look at Arizona's passing offense last season, Kyle targeted receiver a tight end over the middle of field in the zero to fourteen yard range. It wasn't good. The cardinals were eight percent worse than league average and success rate fourteen percent worse when the ball was thrown fifteen or more yards in the middle in the air. It's not to bash him obviously, but you start to think the height, the five ten height. Is preventing him from being able to see as well throwing the ball over his offensive line, throwing the ball over defenders in the middle of the field I. think it's something that we have to monitor in year two. I think what you're hoping for if you're cardinals fan. Is that not only will hopkins kind of improve that strength throwing outside but the attention paid to hopkins allows guys like Fitzgerald in Kirk in ills, Avella to kind of flourish over the middle but listen I if thrown over the middle is in Tyler attribute, he's got plenty of other redeeming qualities. Electric his legs or something. You have a game plan for his ability to improvise whether it was a scripted run where you know a defense thinks you know, hey, we got him dead to rights many times. You don't. If you look at work hyler really excelled last year average nearly ten yards per carry seventy, seven percent success rate when scrambling because of pressure todd I think we just hope for his sake there's a little more help upfront this season. While you mentioned that and when you talk about the Arizona Cardinals, of course, the diminutive quarterback even with the mobility of Kyla Murray. That's clearly where you WANNA look along the offensive line, they go out there and they signed Kelvin Beecham, who started forty five of forty eight games for the jets finished third amongst tackles in pass blocking win rate at a shade better than ninety four percent according to ESPN stats and Info they do have Marcus Gilbert opting out who was expected to take the starting right tackle job you now look at just and Murray or maybe a third round pick and Josh Jones that can give them depth but from the existing roster place pain where you feel comfortable with an old line that can protect Murray and give them a semblance of a ground game behind Kenyan drake will be playing under that transitional tag. It's a weird offense of wine and we love digging into some of the metrics but you know they weren't great the cardinals and creating space in the ground game. So they're twenty-second adjusted line yards twenty six adjusted sack right allowed. But what's really interesting is the line finished third in pass blocking efficiency tenth in place block win rate. It tells me going back to Qin. Kings vary that his scheme is pretty good. It really helped the offensive line out in some areas. Arizona had the most injured O- line group in the NFL. So there's some things pointing up there. You're right Marcus. Gilbert he is opting out I think that's a pretty big loss. The cardinals did add Josh Jones from Huston, the rookie tackle. I'm not sure what he's going to be able to contribute right away under the current circumstances but the cardinal's offensive line coach actually recruited Jones in high school. So he's familiar with his abilities a little bit. Let's not forget Max William last year was added. Great out the best run blocking tight end in two thousand nineteen. If you look at where cliff loves running, it's outside zone and with good reason, Arizona had a fifty six percent success rate an outside zone runs last season Max Williams is a big part of that. He pinches off the edgy helps Kenyan drake get. Outside it was really beauty to watch. The other thing that I think helps the offensive line is is having Kenyan drake for the entire year. The difference he made last year to this offense and as you alluded to, it started the trend up towards the end of the year. It's because Kenyan drake and and they started to change things offensively they changed their formation. Aptitude where they were running ton of ten personnel, they decided not to do that. But Kenyan drake was the huge difference in this offense and I think his familiarity helps a little bit. But you focus on Kenyan drake good God cliff Kingsbury used him on nearly eighty percent of the snaps. The final eight games averaged one hundred and two scrimmage yards. He deserved to get all those snaps in the one thing the cardinals offense really struggled with. Their First Down Success I eight Games cardinals offense twenty sixth in I down success rate three percent worse than league average with Kenyan Drake Finally Games Arizona eighth and I down success rate three percent better than league average. What does that do for a young quarterback when he suddenly not faced with long situations on second and third down so drake was helping everybody it was vital that he was implemented into this offense. So I think having him for a full season is is a huge huge gift for the cardinals. Of. Kenyan drake doesn't work out the cardinals can continue to stockpile Arizona state running back I mean Dj Foster Benjamin maybe they'll just create a pipeline therefrom herm Edwards in funnel, right into cliff Kingsbury offense. But for all the optimism pain I, think a lot of have about the cardinals offense and how exciting it could be near two of those to continue to be on the same page head coach and starting quarterback. Obviously, there's some things that people are worried about what the Arizona cardinals that's why their win total is seven and a half, and you mentioned Vance Joseph earlier hilly. The defense that was ranked dead last in the NFL too loud more than four hundred yards. Per Game, we know the Chandler. Jones is the biggest name on that side of the ball five straight double digit sack seasons most in the NFL nineteen sacks that included three games. We didn't even record a single one they went out there and they address some of their needs along the defensive line. You look in the secondary Patrick Peterson Bona fide number one theoretically but maybe not as elite as he was a couple of seasons ago. But what do you make of this stop unit for the Arizona Cardinals Isaiah Simmons all the town the world but asking rookie to contribute right out of the gate to the truncated preseason seems to be a little bit of a reach. I'm not sure ventures of its and I witnessed him I you firsthand down in here in Miami. Two Thousand Sixteen, the dolphins finished nineteenth defensive efficiency against the bottom ten schedule of offenses in somehow vans parlayed that into the Denver Broncos head coaching job. And his defense is finished top ten full seasons there but he inherited the number one defense prior to his arrival. Get. Shit canned and then Arizona hires last season and the cardinals defense finished twenty third against the top ten schedule of offenses. I think this is a monster year for Vance. you start to kind of poke around you try to give the guy a chance. There are some positives I think the indicate probably a better defensive cardinals unit this year we're projecting them right now to face a below average schedule of offenses that should help the glaring weakness of the cardinals defense should improve something we talked about it nauseam todd anytime we broke down cardinals game last season especially I think during those primetime. Games against George on the forty niners they couldn't cover tight ends. They couldn't cover running backs. You mentioned Isaiah Simmons I think he helps immediately with that. But what's really interesting is how they're gonNA use them. We know his versatility he doesn't have a crew position I. Mean you got to play at one position though I think to make his transition to the NFL that much more seamless right I mean you're not gonNA. Drop. Yet, yeah, exactly. What they're talking about doing they said, hey we're gonNA use them as a middle linebacker. We know he's a rookie. We know he's behind the eight ball with short and offseason. So they're going to start a middle linebacker I think his athletic ability his speed to cover tight ends I think helps day one though, and if you look Arizona dead last in receiving yards and touchdowns allowed to tight ends, the NFL average for touchdowns allowed to tight ends was six point two last season. Arizona gave up sixteen touchdowns. Two tight ends couldn't cover running backs either finish twenty fifth or worse in receptions receiving yards in receiving touchdowns allowed to running back. So you have a gazelle out there like Isaiah Simmons and I think that has to improve those two areas. You get another boost though both projected starting corners from season to go either injured or suspended Robert for never played a snap they him to. A pretty nice deal in the offseason last year from. ATLANTA. Patrick Peterson suspended the first six game. So the cardinals pass defense was horrific gave a belief. I seventy two explosive passes first six weeks without Peterson Alford, and then you had the rookie Byron? Murphy effectively like thrown into the fire out of necessity Arizona love fifty, five, percent pass degrade successful ten percent more than league average final ten games with Peterson. Murphy having a little more experience. There was a seven percent improvement passing success rate and oddly the part that left me questioning Vance a little bit was despite not being able to cover tight ends and running backs a secondary. That had a lot of key cogs missing for these large stretch of the season Van said. Hey Bucket I'm just going to blitz he sent. percent of the Yes, you can run the back end just impression. Hope it gets on. Brahmos it didn't get home he blitz a forty percent of the time. It was the third highest rate in the. NFL. But the Russian never got home unfortunately Arizona was twenty-six six, pressure eight. So they were left exposed the secondary by this blitzing defense that rarely impacted opposing quarterbacks. It was a disaster in the scheme didn't help at all. It's going to be an interesting team to watch if. They can figure out anything on the defensive side. You talked about the schedule being a little bit more favorable vision that's not going to really give them any easy out as far as six opportunities against the NFC west should be a fun team to watch and we'll see what they can do with this unique talent that they have. Offensively the kind of performance is they can put forth but I. Know Todd when you mentioned that offense to kind of put a bow tie, they have to start hot because if you look at the schedule from week ten on Arizona faces teams projected to win nearly nine games on average from week ten onward they have to start. So. Much of it's about momentum and you talk about this team in the direction they can had we know that things can easily be derailed in the NFL and I guess that makes sense for the next thing that we're going to discuss with the Los, Angeles Rams win total sits at eight and a half it is indeed shaded to the over of course, the rams missed the playoffs for the first time under coach Sean mcvay last season they are however the only team in the NFL to finish with a winning record yet missed the playoffs in two thousand, nineteen they of course won the NFC west. In. Two thousand, seventeen in two, thousand, eighteen compiled at twenty four and eight record over those seasons which was tied for best in the NFL and they've had a winning record every year under coach McVeigh, thirty, three, and fifteen. The only franchise with a better record during that span would be the New Orleans saints. But pain when we look at McVeigh and we talk about a potential rebound, it's gotta come quick because this team and franchise put themselves in salary cap hell were they have three point nine, million cap space available the only teams in worse shape right now the raiders and the Tampa Bay Bucks. It's hard to say this about coach I like. One of. The least interesting teams in the League Todd so much so that I didn't even watch hard knocks last night. Did you manage to watch that? Know what I was going to start it, and then once the Golden Knights game got going on time realizes about ten, fifteen, ten, thirty figure I don't really care about the two teams that are GonNa be playing so-fi stadium all that much this year. The rams are in a weird spot in in you kind of alluded to this they're trying to shed some dead cap. They didn't have a first round pick. This year won't as it stands in twenty twenty one to me. They're trying to build back some of their resources so they can make another run in two or three seasons. But the other three teams in the NFC Wester far more interesting. There really isn't a story line to the twenty twenty rams aside from McVeigh's confidence in my mind and last year when we previewed the rams, I think we discussed. Little Bit of the Super Bowl hangover and then they had to play the toughest schedule in the entire league. So wasn't surprising that they had down season. We even joked about mcvay kind of having his soul ripped out by bell check and Flora's and I have to tell you. There's no question to me McVeigh's loss of confidence and he starting to really question some things it because for the first time McVeigh's been la says hey. I'm going to appoint an offensive coordinator in Kevin O'CONNELL and he said he wanted to inject a fresh viewpoint into the offense. To me, there's no middle ground here this in my opinions either GonNa help in a big way or it's a sign that McVeigh has truly lost. The MOJO mcvay claims he's still gonNA call place but I was listening to Jared Goff interview and he said the core values of the offense are going to remain the same but there's going to be some new things implemented todd so I'm intrigued to see what that means for the rams offense. Well, when we talk about the rams offense philosophy I, mean you've outlined it and kind of bang the drum over the last couple of seasons it all starts with the effectiveness of a play action pass and the offense was ranked top five in the NFL both passing yards, and in the red zone last season, they put forty three rushing touchdowns on the board over the last two seasons the most in the NFL of course, the lion share of those coming on the shoulders of Todd. Gurley with him gone pain who ultimately the baton I mean is it going to be? Daryl Henderson it's GonNa get First Crack Malcolm Brown camakers Jones John Kelly I. Don't know what to make of the rams back. The clearly Henderson was a guy that we were high on a season ago didn't peruse and after averaging twenty four point, six points per game. It was a precipitous drop off from the thirty one point four, they did in their route to get to the super bowl they're gonNA need a running back to step up maybe it's camakers because when you look at the rams off season, they traded away brandin cooks they draft camakers, they draft a tight end. Of their first four picks were either tight end or running back, it would indicate to me L. A. Plans on starting this season with the mindset of how they finished last year, and that's transitioning to a heavier formation offense. If you look lashed, you're the first ten weeks mcvay US two tight end sets twelve percent of the time final seven weeks forty percent and the two big beneficiaries were tyler higby and golf to an extent. I think golf is going to be helped by this again, higby good God final five games at five, hundred, twenty, two yards literally one some teams fantasy leagues I think he is going to be relied upon heavily if you look higby snaps doubled. In Iran three times, more routes per game. The final five games in the first eleven huge benefactor of mcvay going with heavier formations and I think he also helped in pass blocking because that was an issue and if you look at Higby, he's always been good and pass protection. He's had sixteen hundred in three pass block snaps in his career only allowed three sacks so. Again, it helped golf gave him some much needed protection that he wasn't getting from the Oh liner owned the season. If you look golf actually wasn't sacked one time when the rams used to were more tight ends on the field. Last season you touched on this right the loyal listeners know if you've listened to this podcast, we've chronicle this. We've led the charge golf AIDS pressure. Doesn't like to be hit I think is toughness is a little bit questionable treats the ball like a hot potato he melts when pressure is on. And, the dichotomy Goff's numbers are massive when he was pressured last season passer rating dip forty points completion rate dropped thirty, one percent. He doesn't show at this point a willingness to stand in the pocket or step into the pocket and deliver a ball and getting hit, and you can kind of see that a little bit. There was a real lack of aggressiveness according to player Tracking Data. Golf was thirty fifth out of thirty nine quarterbacks and aggressiveness as a passer his air yards were down his depth per completion was down. Golf needs a clean pocket. He's better when his feeder set. So it'll be interesting to see with these heavier formations if McVeigh uses more play auction. We love the increased use of it but again, I'm not sure we want Goff's feet moving more than than they to, and if you look last season golf had a better passer rating when he threw the ball without play action and oddly he threw more interceptions than touchdowns when using play action so. It's GonNa be interesting to see what this rams offense does. The last thing we want to talk about here, kind of before we transition to the other side of the ball is the o line down the stretch improved and again partly because I think the help of the two tight end sets, but all five lineman returned for. La. So there is some continuity in that means more in this offseason. Rob Haven Stein had his worst season as a pro. You should bounce back a little bit. Your Hope Boston Blythe returns to his two thousand eighteen form in terms of pass protection. Rams are projected the face, a schedule posing pass rushers. That's bottom ten leak. Then you go out yet camakers I think he's an upgrade, I really do his vision at times as great. Soma I'm about to tell you what what his issues are. The vision isn't great because he's this converted high school quarterback but I think there's a lot of upside when you think about and we talk about this all the time, the offensive lines that he had to run behind at Florida, state? And they were the focal point of our shows on on. Wednesday. But if you look at acres productions as a junior, everything was mostly his own doing seventy, nine percent of acres rushing yards came after first contact his elusiveness was off the charts forced miss tackles on thirty, two percent of his touches. So I think it's imperative when you look at McVeigh, he's got to get the ground game going again this season. But it's GonNa be difficult. You just mentioned he's got a slew running back options. Let's see what he goes with I. Think Cam and Henderson are probably the lead guys, but they face a top five schedule of run defenses. So it's not going to be easy and you talked about to change and offensive philosophy McVeigh handing off some of the responsibilities to offensive coordinator, we're going to see some changes on the defensive side. As, well, a veteran DC, and Wade Phillips out. Brandon Staley's in and pain. When you look at this defense, the linebacking core is absolutely barren while the secondary in my opinion has some talent. We know what extremely young Nicole Roby Coleman guy that we've talked about at great length and what the impact he'll have in his new places absence will be felt they have superstars in Jalen, Ramsey Aaron Donald but I guess The biggest question that I have, we're the hell's the pass rush come from Aaron Donald is disruptive force on the defensive line but I can't see anywhere else that the rams go. Hey, look this is where we're going to trust getting sex and it doesn't get easier when you're talking about losing Dante. Fowler Losing Clay Matthews you underperformed during most of his time there and then on the back end, of course Eric retiring. I'm down on the rams defense and we don't know much about that new DC Brennan, Staley Young Guy in his thirties he is from the VIC Fangio tree vic hired him in two thousand, seventeen from a Catholic college in Ohio to be the bears outside linebackers coach followed victim Denver for the same job. So staley only three years in the NFL never more than an. Outside linebackers coach to this is a big leap here and it'll be interesting to see what his style is. If it Mir's Fangio's or if he has a different philosophy without a normal off season or preseason games, it's going to be difficult to gauge some of these things I know McVeigh has hinted trying to be more hands on with the defense todd to suit him. Guys he got his even watch the defense. He's got back to the field what his defense is out there, and all of a sudden he's going to become a defensive guru I that's a stretch I get where go but you're right. We typically see him like isolated in the corner somewhere drawn up plays for the next offensive possession when his defense is on the field. But let's see what it looks like in two thousand twenty in the thing that McVeigh said he wants a defense it's more matchup driven with Week week-to-week week philosophies that change it smart definitely how it should be done. But I think it's tough to implement that this year and when you go down to the actual players on the rams defense, it's tough having questions I think about a unit that includes Aaron Donald but I'm not sure about the depth along the Rams Defensive Line question marks as you alluded to at linebacker and slot corner back in March on our off season preview podcasts, we talked about the importance of Cory Littleton in today's game he's a good cover linebacker. He's a surefire tackler few look littleton finish top twenty in yards allowed per route run among linebackers with at least four hundred. Covered snaps a far and away the most efficient tackling linebacker last season. That's a massive loss in the heart of the rams defense. It wasn't worth the price tag of retaining, Dante Fowler. But losing him isn't a positive wet overtired I think most no our feelings at this point about Roby Coleman if you smart listened to the NFC. East betting preview and we touched on him Nicole Roby Coleman in today's game huge loss one of five corners to record four hundred or more coverage naps in the slot in two thousand nineteen allowed zero point six, three yards per coverage nap gigantic loss. I think the loan positive here is it looks like the schedule of offenses faced is projected to be below average slightly easier than last season. Especially when you factor in the past protecting ability of the offensive line's, you're gonNA need big years from rockers. Aba Cam at those two are going to have a chance to eat in their new increased roles but the rams are going to have their hands full trying to stop the run this year tot. How dare we not respect Leonard Floyd the impact he could have that the rams brought him over a guy who's underachieved his previous stop but yeah, I'm right there with Ya. I. Think when you look at this rams team, they're gonNA, have to outscore everyone because that defense isn't going to get stopped consistently should be interesting to try and see when you're matching up twice a year with the team like the San Francisco Forty niners who have their win total set at ten and a half shaded to the over Fox. and. Of course, the forty niners paying you mentioned continuity and how important it'll be in twenty twenty they returned eighteen of twenty, two starters from last year super bowl only three, the last nine super bowl runner ups have gone on to win their division the next season. So the forty niners working against bit history there five streets seasons four this franchise without a winning record until they broke through last year ultimately lost a turnover battle in just four games. which I think we often try and figure out is that sustainable year to year again with the forty niners and of course, get to their defense I. Think the biggest question that a Lotta fans out there have is Jimmy G. Good enough to be the pivot Kyle Shanahan needs to ultimately get them over the Hump not come up eight minutes short of bringing Lombardi trophy back to the bay area. We still haven't figured out where you get that terminology from. Every called a pivot it's not a quarterback it's not single caller it's not to pivot. Yeah, you mix it up a little bit from time to time. No DOC emrick here with the way I can talk about nine thousand different ways to describe a pass in hockey, but we try to keep things fresh as best we can is it almost eleven yet? No got about eighteen minutes until I two. Now you're droning on about NFC teams I start to watch hockey. I may have to flip that on mute as well. Which is typically I watch hockey anyways. Jimmy. G.. I'm going to ignore that day continue with G di? tried. Man The was got screwed in the draft thing. They had to send him to a big market. You have to make the Rangers King's relevant. You Got Sidney Crosby for a few more years your pens be fine. We'll get you. We'll get a hockey podcast on here somewhere and people can see your true colors oh. Yeah Oh. Yeah. Jimmy G. I think he's good enough. The offense is good. Enough Kyle Shanahan arguably the best play caller and designer in the NFL right now. He does all the things that. Most great offensive coordinators in minds do they use play action they use a higher rate of pre snap motion. So there's only going to be I think varying degrees of good from Kyle Shanahan in the offense. The question you kind of mentioned air everyone seems to have with the four hundred is. Do they have the right guy under center. Is Jimmy G. Good Enough? That it feels odd to me and I think you can roll the tape on on her super bowl podcast back in late January, we nixed the idea that Jimmy was the problem. Then I don't believe they'll be what prevents the forty niners from winning super bowl this season either. Were higher on Emmanuel Sanders I. Think than most but it seems like Jimmy Jeez getting crushed his abilities are being questioned for overthrowing. A thirty-three-year-old possession receive run a fifty, five yard deepak pressure in his face. You know there was really no continuity. Those two guys played ten games together I get it. It's a huge play, but it's one snap of an entire season sample and I think that's what most are latching onto. Meanwhile when you look at the entire seasons ample. Jimmy G. was the very best deep passer in the NFL seventy, four percent Jessica percentage deep throws the next bet qualifying border back was in fifty four percent. So you look at Jimmy G. I. Think he was largely responsible for the forty niners having the highest explosive pass rate in the NFL those throws of twenty or more yards. That's important chunk place. I'm not making excuses for the guy, but I think if you remember back, Garoppolo did all this in his first season back from an ACL tear? He faced the top ten schedule passing defenses as you mentioned at the top. Kyle Shanahan won a grand total of ten games. His first two seasons in San Francisco Combined Jimmy Johns first full season thirteen wins. And it would appear to me Jimmy confidence is high right now, I don't know if you've done some reading over the last eighteen hours, but he's shedding the Nibras it's coming off. So he's not going to wear one this season and when I look at the two thousand, twenty season todd in the forty niners offense I think this is probably the first time we can start to be critical in Nitpick Jimmy. Look at Jimmy G.. Of course, it's not just ham we'll get to the offensive line which I think is an interesting group to discuss. But as far as his weapons are concerned, George cadle brandon I you the talented receiver they draft out of Arizona State Deebo Samuel breaks his foot during June workouts. Let's hope he's one hundred percent by the time the. Season gets going in September but doesn't have enough weapons in the passing game. We know there's changing faces in the Backfield as well with her he most you think poised to probably be the lead back, but we know Kyle Shanahan has always gonNA divvy up that carries and not rely on one back to Belco getting twenty touches a game we're going to. Get more from Jimmy G. This year I I really do when you look at the entire landscape, you lose Emmanuel Sanders, you mentioned deebo Samuel breaks his foot. It's not an easy injured or recover from quickly for a number of reasons. I'm not sure we're going to see him at the the onset of the year. So you're down your two highest greater receivers on the roster marquees. Goodwin also moved on. I. Think most would say like well, you know Kyle. Shanahan ran the ball for the first three quarters at the third highest rate in the League is first team no Biggie. I would tend to agree, but the forty niners or a top five schedule of run defenses. This season it was below average last year sue now we anticipate a tougher run schedule. The weapons outside take a little bit of a dip is on Jimmy G. to lift the offense up more the season. You know the forty niners they go out draft Brandon Euch. Explosive. Guy. Great, run after the catch guy can jump a country mile. Let's remember. The JUKU guy wasn't fully developed the knock on him was his route running, and if you look at his route tree at the college level, seventy percent of his targets at Asu. Last season either slants goes posts very basic routes. It's not a really robust route tree right now I you plays one of the toughest position to be a factor as a rookie. Now, we have this extremely shortened off season but I think he's probably a good space receiver and he's going to fill that role deebo Samuel out of the gates if Deebo isn't there I think it's Important, you look a Kendrick born. He's gotTa take the next step and whether it's Jalen Hurd or it's done a pettus. One of those guys needs to be a factor. But the guy I'm hearing the buzz about we're finally going to see Jerick McKinnon and teammates are raving about him. The last time we saw him was like two years ago fifty one receptions from the running back position. Kyle chaining is gonNA find matchups in the past game for him I. Think now more than ever. It's also crazy to say this but maybe more goes on George Kettles plate if that's possible and if you look the forty niners throat in the middle of the field that sixty five percent clip in the league kiddle, Jimmy, G. had a great bond. Last season throws over the Middle Jimmy G. recorded the highest total EPA in the League I love that the forty niners acted fast. They used a previous relationship is well, you hinted at the offensive line. They had a glaring issue there left tackle with Joe Staley retiring they rob Washington Trent Williams. So now Jimmy Jeez blindside is protected a fifth and a third round pick for premium player to premium position had a full year to get healthy reunites with cal. Shanahan. WHO SPENT FOUR YEARS WITH IN WASHINGTON? Perfect fit todd you also Jordan read it came down Sunday afternoon. Do I think he is like the alternate? Eight, he'll be on the field for eight snaps before he ends up hurt again let's not kid ourselves. You're missing the point here right? These are low risk high reward signings, and when you have a team that just needs that one player that one guy to get them over the hump or that one special move or play in a big game is Jordan Reed could potentially. Add that it also indicates we might see a little more two tight end sets here with some of those receivers that could be out or too young to contribute right away. So at least at the onset of the season, if you're trying to get young receivers acclimated Deebo, Mrs Time maybe you start using more twelve before Jordan eluded to leaves and departs with an injury. Offensive. Line was one of the strengths for this team pain. We know about some of the stars that are there. They did have a few guys opt out which I think hurt their depth defensively the forty niners at the top ranked pass defense in the league allowing less than one hundred, seventy yards per game was actually the fewest passing yards at team has allowed since the two thousand nine jets and I think a lot of that pain you don't have to be a rocket scientist to. figure out that they were so good on the back end because they're pass Russia's elite a fifth and sack led by of course, Mr Bosa Eric Armstead deforest Buckner, who's no longer there in d., Ford and they were also very good with undersized albeit athletic linebackers that were great in terms of taking away the tight end. But when you look at this secondary I mean some major question marks there if they can't get home does the forty niners defense and evidently take a step back. I think that makes sense. Yeah. But I do believe Robert Salon will have a very, very good defense again and I think he's really responsible for the forty niners. Making that Super Bowl run because his defense made a huge leap from twenty third defensive efficiency to second year-over-year. Even crazier that gigantic uptick happened with forty niners having the seventh most injured defense. A lot of guys in that secondary were banged up. It'll be interesting to see if the unit can maintain that dominance I think were were calling for some slight regression. Right. Off The bat, the forty niners go from facing a slightly above average schedule of offenses. Last season to a projected top three schedule offenses in two thousand twenty. So that's really where we think some of the regression probably happens down the stretch we started to see a few areas. The forty niners defense could be exploited a little bit. We saw in the forty niners defense face top five offenses they performed at a level below expectation. First half of the season seem like the forty niners defense built the reputation on being elite or one of the best ever. A, lot of that was in part to the competition. If you go back to the first eight weeks of last season when they were stacking up these numbers, San Francisco's defense played offenses with an average efficiency rank of twenty fifth the quarterbacks over that stretch yet guys like Mason. Rudolph James Dalton Two quarterbacks that had down years and Mayfield in Goff they face case keenum and in monsoon and then Kyle Allen. So we felt like there was some noise in some of those early season numbers and we talked about that last year. You'll look at how they fared against top five offenses inefficiency. The forty niners were two and three. In those games they allowed fifty four percent of runs degrade successful in forty, nine percent of passes against all other teams. Forty. Seven percent against the run thirty, seven percent against the past. Now I think everyone listens like, Hey, it's obvious. Right. When you play lead offense is GonNa be tougher to defend. But if you look at how those five offenses performed on average for a full season last year and how they performed against the forty niners defense the second best buy by the metrics four of the five offenses met or outperformed their season-long numbers against the forty niners defense in the Super Bowl Kansas City met their season long success number fifty, one, percent week ten, seattle exceeded their season long success rate metric by five percent week seventeen. Seattle under shot at by five percents that was like the lone win for the San Francisco Defense Week Thirteen. Baltimore is a complete downpour. They exceeded their season long rushing success rate metric by three percent, which was a massive number, two eclipse, and then on top of that, you know you look at that game no one was passing the ball in that game they knew they had to run being successful in fifty eight percent of runs in that game with the weather being ridiculous was pretty impressive. The Saints Offense Week Fourteen, who is number one in the NFL and overall success rate of fifty three percent outperform that number by three percent against San Francisco's defense. You mentioned at the top and we talked about it all last year San Francisco's defense was great because they had an ability to get pressure without blitzing number two and pressure rate but blitz the fourth least perfect combination but San Francisco wasn't this. You know elite defense getting pressure on early downs or in the red zone something we covered in the Super Bowl podcast the gist average in red zone success rate allowed. So to me, I'm a little concerned with the loss of deforest Buckner, I, think they paid the wrong guy I made. That known back in March buckner finished eighth more better in three straight seasons in pressures for all interior linemen. Now, get it. You can't afford everyone and you get his replacement in round one with J von in law he fills that whole and long-term. There will likely be a value gain based on dollar save versus production, but you're in win now mode to me damn good defense it'll continue to be but I don't think it'll be that elite unit that finished second efficiency I believe we see like Utah a small step back this year. And if there's a team poice poised easy for me to say to knock the forty niners off their perch, it may well fact be the Seattle Seahawks win total sits at nine and a half shaded to the over this franchise. It has not won the NFC west since two, thousand sixteen but finished second place each of the last three seasons. When you look at the way, they've built everything around Russell Wilson a winner winning record in Eighth Street seasons every year that Russell Wilson has been team starting quarterback. Only the Patriots have a longer active streak average eleven wins this season with him going back to two, thousand twelve and they're one of. Two teams with double digit wins each of the last two years. What's interesting? No pain. They're twenty and ten, the division and only ten eight against divisional foes over a limited sample size. Is this the year we finally see the Seattle seahawks take the governor off. Russell. Wilson and allow him to be the quarterback. We know he can be and not just have to scramble around make plays every single series on third and eight. You Cheer Hope and I know we've been carrying the Russell. Wilson Torch for Awhile thought you know the last two seasons we've made sure that that flame Burns Taller and wider and we hold it higher so everyone can see. and. We've we've attributed his value to the seahawks organization almost similarly to to Lebron meant to Cleveland, and we've almost like pushed for an ownership stake. He's so important that movements kind of happening. You know people now understand how valuable Russell Wilson is he's guy that's never received an MVP vote in his entire career. Now he's being mentioned as one of the better. So wild. So wild to me of all the stats I read that earlier this off season, and now it seems like he's he's being mentioned as one of the better. MVP bets this season. The problem and you kind of hinted at this, we're still waiting on Pete Carroll. Brian Schottenheimer, to figure this out. This point they haven't and every time we think they're about to you know figure this thing out. We're kind of left disappointed. It shouldn't be difficult to understand. that. When you pay Russ what you pay him, he needs the ball in his hands more because what's around him probably is diminished so you could actually pay him what you paid them. It seems like a simple. When you look at Wilson's player tracking data the last two seasons with Brian Schottenheimer as. I think this probably becomes more evident. Because, Russell Wilson's expected completion percentage under Schottenheimer is bottom five in the NFL but is completion percentage above expectation has been top five back to back seasons. So it says he's not being put in great positions, but yet he still one of the best quarterbacks in the leak. So this is like quite essential meaning of the phrase turning chicken shit in the chicken salad and I think you know when you look at Russell Wilson. He can't be a quarterback on a team that only throws the twenty seventh most in the NFL. He needs to be a bigger part of this offense and hopefully that's the case this year. I mean, his numbers are simply staggering when you talk about a guy who was top five in the NFL and passing touchdowns in passer rating last year yet sacked forty eight times. which time for the League lead turnover differential they were plus twelve tied for third in the NFL and truly elite when it came to red zone scoring obviously, we know that the seahawks live and die with some of their ground attack where they had the fourth ranked rushing offense. A season ago, the Ad Carlos side and Dj Dallas. We know Rashaad Penny and Chris. Carson dealt with major injuries which kind of derailed any playoff aspirations but you also have emerging stars or at least one emerging star decay metcalf went fifty catches for nine hundred plus yards and seven touchdowns. Think he makes a major jump in his second season alongside tyler. Lockett do does Seattle have the weapons pain that you feel comfortable with if they allow Russell Wilson to do what he does best and finally maybe throw on early downs. That's the hope listen we've kind of bagged on. Schottenheimer a little bit here but there was some improvement in if you you mentioned I down specifically, there was a ten point one percent increase year over year in first down pass rate. That's a positive side. Still, far too much running second down and I think that's the next step in the evolution of the offense were hoping to see especially when you look at the schedule of defenses Seattle faces twenty twenty projecting the toughest schedule of run defenses, but just slightly above average of passing defenses. So it's really time to to Unleash Russ, the weapons around him are better than people think too. We saw Tyler Lockett increases production with Doug Baldwin choosing to retire even playing through an injured ankle, the final seven games last season lock it's one thousand yard receiver and. Increased his reception rate by forty five percent. The biggest thing to me though is lock. It showed an ability not just to be like this one trick pony deep threat he could run routes to. Three, point two yards of separation per route run for lock at fourth, most separation of any receiver targeted one hundred or more times. You mentioned decay metcalf specifically surge down the stretch as a rookie I think that bodes well for a year to leap twenty two percent of the seahawks target share. The Final Ten Games had twenty four explosives. He's this rare combination man of of size and speed he can get downfield he can create separation, but he's also this big target in the end zone in the red zone decay led the NFL in end zone targets. Last season. Greg. Olson still has enough in the tank to be a factor plus disley. Think could have a big year if he can stay healthy was the sixth sixth place fantasy production the first six weeks of last season. Then he gets injured additionally, you might be investing before information actually occurs I sent a note last week one of my guys up there said. Listen Seattle would be very open to a Josh Gordon. Reunion if the League reinstates him, I would be looking at either him. Or. A B.. Now, they haven't publicly said ANYTHING ABOUT A B but they publicly or saying some things about Gordon Ab we know is now suspended the first. Eight Games. So. You have to take a risk on him. He's still got the other case pending. So who knows what comes of that but they're talking to both Abyan Gordon potentially one of the two being added. To vinyl things, todd seahawks offensive line we know is a weak link but on the left side, there's at least some continuity you have Dwayne Brown, you have mei-chieh potty you bring in a new starting center and Bj. Finney. Who is Benny backup in Pittsburgh but he's in his prime in four starts last you're only allowed three pressures on one hundred and sixty five pass blocking snaps. If that can somehow translate to a full season, it's a grand slam pickup the sixty ninth pick Seattle took guard Damian Lewis. He is a huge human and you saw his draft stock rise in the Auburn game when played well against. On they've penciled Brandon Shallan at right tackle is shell like this awesome player no. But his worst season over the last four years is a pro is better than any of the four seasons previous right tackle Jermaine IFM has had so it's very possible. The offensive line is a little bit better. This season there's going to be competition throughout right now pete has nineteen offensive lineman on the roster. Okay. So there's going to be competition the last thing and it meshes with the SEAHAWKS O. Line. Even if the aligns improved on I, think you have to get Russell Wilson moving around more have amuse play action more roll him out help Russ help the line by providing this moving target for the defense. But additionally, if you look at Russell Wilson's numbers, he is freaking fantastic with play action completion percentage rose seven percent passer rating improved twenty five points. His yards per pass attempt rose a full two yards more with play action ten touchdowns two zero interceptions with play action. I think you keep Wilson's feet moving and it's going to help this offense. Take that next step in in two thousand, twenty time. I mean just put your playmakers in a position to make plays, and your biggest playmaker is a man who touches the ball on every single offensive snap. I don't want to oversimplify how difficult it is to build. Offensive game plans are called plays to things that I'll never do in my entire life. But Common Sense says somewhere along the way, Russell Wilson has to be that guy defensively for the seahawks we know about the big off season edition you go out there your trade for Jamal Adams it gives them a guy that they're most likely going to give a Max deal to to try and recreate the glory. Days where the Legion of boom more or less patrol that defensive backfield you go out there you pick up a linebacker in Jordan Brooks which fits their mold in the draft from Texas Tech. We know the strength of this team defensively, Bobby Wagner, and Cagey. Right. They really struggled last year in the past defense giving up two hundred and sixty three plus yards per game, which was good for twenty seven. But I think a lot of that pain came from the simple fact that they only recorded twenty eight sex number that was second than elite behind only dolphins have the seahawks done enough defensively to at least make. Knit better knowing that the offense can be sneaky good and put up points on a somewhat regular basis Seattle's. Back Seven Has the potential to really you'll yielded to the big question marks the front four, they lost Quinton, Jefferson and free agency all along the interior of the line he was you know their elite pressure guy finished seventeenth in total pressures among qualifying interior linemen. That's a lot to lose. I think considering Seattle's twenty eighth and pressure. CLOWNEY has yet to accept Seattle's offer. There is some growing skepticism that he will actually sign it and I think Seattle's getting a little bit pissed off about. L. J. Collier, last season's first round. Pick didn't really see the field much a rookie. He needs to be a major player in your two along defensive line. The real concern I think. Within, the organization about the defensive line, they're not quite sure where they're gonna go to add these bodies but I can tell you gotTa dance around this a little bit. They they wanted somebody. Words wise. They pay shoes your word wisely a one hundred percent certainty. They're going to add somebody Seattle's reached out to Everson Griffen. They've reached out to clay matthews who you mentioned the rams lost last season underperformed a little bit. I, think they're happy to sign either. But they're also trying to light a fire under clown. He's asked to force them into a decision because right now they do have the highest offer still on the table. And he's living in La La land I think right now in his value is actually worth the loan positive when you can move it forward to twenty twenty as the front four is GonNa face an easier schedule of pass blocking offensive lines and easier schedule of Ground Games in two twenty, twenty compared to last season. So that could help offset some of these losses. The defensive line could suffer. The linebacker unit is one of the best. In the League we have Wagner and right you add a first round pick in Jordan Brooks there's some nice depth that the position as well. You have Burke Irvine and Cody Barton. I'm intrigued to see if wagner and right can kind of maintain the production as they age both had down seasons relatively speaking a year ago for them. Seattle gave up the second most yards second most receptions, two tight ends. Last season we're closely kind of monitoring this situation because we know wagner and writer aging a little bit they're having maybe potentially you know a touch more difficult time covering in space I think the the drafting of Jordan Brooks says that rights days are numbered they're. This secondary though. Man They have a shot to be very good Shaquille Griffin had a bounceback two, thousand, nineteen, trey flowers performed above average. We absolutely loved the Quinton Dunbar trade absolute robbery allowed a fifty-six six pasteurized. Thirty seven hundred. Well played. He did get himself into legal trouble and landed on the NFL exempt list. But this past Friday prosecution announced that they had insufficient evidence. To charge. Dunbar. So let's see what Goodell does. But I think that bodes very well for the seahawks. Getting him back his attorney. Doesn't seem to be in hot water because there was this little. Tidbit. Of information trying to bribe some. Of the witnesses that may have occurred. Bene- benefit the Dunbar. Emma. Obviously, the safety position makes a huge leap, not just by the obvious additional. Adams but. You can pair him now with quandary dicks and they acquired him around the middle of last season. I think that's a fantastic one two punch. Field they're actually great friends. Digs was atoms host when he visited taxes on a recruiting trip, but they complement each other very well on the field to if you look digs is going to play that free safety spot. He was an ace and coverage last season allow zero point one, five yards per coverage snap only Doron harmon was better i. think that allows Jamal Adams to roam around the box likely helps in an area that were concerned about with pressuring the quarterback Jamal Adams had forty seven quarterback pressures. The last two seasons from the safety position. We know how valuable that off ball pressure is very good chance. Seattle becomes an above average defense inefficiency this season. Especially, if they bring in a guy or to bolster that defensive line. Should be one of the most fascinating divisions in the entire League I. Think we have a ton of question marks even for the so-called favorites, top division and the forty niners and seahawks the rams trying to figure out who or what they're going to be on both sides of the ball, and of course, all of that tantalizing potential at least offensively for the Arizona cardinals to see if the defense can comply remember you can follow on twitter at Paine insider I'm todd firm and you can follow me there as well. But. Most importantly, they follow the podcast at the board pod and pain. After we break down four teams for those new listeners out there it is our final order of business that we hand off a nicely neatly packaged best bet as far as the NFC west is concerned, where are we going to identify our best value before the season kicks off in earnest on September tenth? So I'M GONNA be candid here it's going to be difficult to find eight bets and it's going to be difficult to find them within their own division. I can say since the last time we spoke we were waiting to bet one thing. and. It was based on the rumors that Davis white could potentially being potentially opt out. So just for all purposes we did Bet Buffalo to win the AFC East at about. Plus one forty plus one, fifty I think it's still playable down to plus one twenty. Especially when we mentioned at the top of the show, the the impact on some of those added opt outs from the new. England patriots the other thing that I am intrigued with with NFC west. Is Jimmy Garoppolo. And if you listen to the breakdown, we think more is going to be put on his plate. We like the addition of Jerick McKinnon in the past game when when you look at the schedule of defenses at the forty niners, you're gonNA face top five against the run very manageable against the pass and we know Kyle Shanahan always schemes. To put his offense in the best position based upon what the defense putting out on the field. and. So I think when you look at Jimmy G. His confidence stripping himself of the knee brace I think is going to be a big year for Jimmy J.. So I can tell you in terms of props and we don't love going over on props this year especially with the. The covert situation going on but I think there is some value in Jimmy G. going over thirty, eight hundred and a half passing yards as well. All right. You heard it from the man himself going back to the AFC offering a little bit of player prop opportunities to encourage folks as. To make sure you get the best numbers available and take full advantage of what's out there in the betting market. Any final words of wisdom pain before we close up shop on the NFC west this fine Wednesday morning that's in I. Think we're good to go. I'm going to pop on this hockey game and That's it. You only missed the first one seven, not a whole lot of action there. So you see we got four painted CIDER I am taught firm as always be sure to follow the podcast on twitter at the Board Pot and with a couple of props and futures in hand coming into the regular season, we'll see you at the window. Thanks for listening to the board, you can catch todd and pain every Monday Wednesday and Thursday during football season breaking down the biggest NFL and college football games, and to make sure you don't miss any free best bets subscribe to the board on Itunes Google play spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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Big Ten Football Preview: Best Bets, Picks & Predictions with Analytics

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1:26:41 hr | 2 months ago

Big Ten Football Preview: Best Bets, Picks & Predictions with Analytics

"Along that thou board bet you ever bet you twenty bucks. Look for the end of the day. He'll fifteen grand tau they pay debts men his manny. It's the board. Podcast really like the end right back where i could still pick. Winners can still make money for all kinds of people back home and why mess up a good thing. Airs pain insider and todd to the beds the board podcast powered by fan duel. Sportsbook go to fan sportsbook. Sign up one thousand dollar risk-free back use the promo code. That the poor backslash bet the board and get you started for big time college and pro football season. i'm your host. Todd furman join as always by my esteemed colleague and co host. The one the only pain insider. How goes it this morning. My friend it goes back a week later after that huge podcast that we just released. I feel like we did. The lord's work in included notre dame in the acc preview this year which is something people have been clamoring for for a while. That's partly why went a little long last show i. It's always interesting. Because i feel like each of the last couple of years. We've tried to break down the conferences. Identify teams in brands. That are worth us doing deep dies. I'm not just from a national relevant standpoint but also from fan interest and it seemed for the first couple of years. We do these college football previews we get to the final. Show go shit. We didn't include notre dame and every year we kind of had to scramble to get them baked into the week one preview in some capacity. That's right we have done that. It just made sense there in the acc last year. Five acc games this year. Squeeze him in there. This is the reason we time stamp. Everything if you're fan of just one specific team your role straight to listen for fifteen twenty minutes and you're good to go. Yeah and the nice part about this. You got six weeks before the season kicks off. No one saying you gotta sit down and listen for the two of us ramble on and on for ninety minutes straight. Listen to a team here at team there. We all know when everyone's starting to return to the office. They're not paying attention at their desk. Throwing the headphones one preview at time you'll be all set and ready ago as it pertains to the five power conferences. Today's pain feels as good as any for us to do a little big ten. So we spend about an hour talking about ohio state and we partition out five minutes each on maybe six or seven other relevant teams in the league. I think ohio states the least interesting team of the entire big ten. I would go once that further and say that this may be the first year in recent memory that at least for me. The big ten west holds a lot more injury than the big ten east. Oh absolutely a lot so much more for grabs. I think there's just not a lot there in the big ten east but we'll see comes down to cj shrout and meakin You know what let's do it. Let's dive right into the scarlet and gray right off the top where the ohio state buckeyes find themselves a prohibitive favorite yet again. Rinse and repeat for the boys there minus two twentieth fan sportsbook to win the league. They are a robust two to nine favourite. Put up four dollars and fifty cents to get a dollar coming back if you believe. They're going to win the east their win total pegged at eleven. You do have to lay a buck and a quarter to go under and pain. When it comes to the buckeyes and what ryan days building assume the reins from urban meyer success. There is gauged entirely by national titles. It's not league championships. it's not division crowns or anything else along those lines and this is a program. That's one twenty-one straight over league opponents since losing purdue in west lafayette as a double digit favourite a few seasons ago and you mentioned the key change no longer justin fields calling the shots under center. They have to hand the baton. Most likely to cj stroud who comes in amid all sorts of hype. But let's see if he can go out there and materialize on the football field ryan day said something to your point in one of his off season pressures. He said every day wakes up scared because he knows it's championship robust. That's it right now so. Cj shroud is the question. Nobody on that roster has attempted meaningful pass and. It sounds like he's going to be the guy. None of us really know what it'll be this season we know the accolades are as high high level. Four star recruit the only quarterbacks that were rated higher in stroud class or starting for alabama and clemson this year. So it's like nice company got a massive arm can move real while. I think we saw that last year. He came in garbage time against sparty right and ran for that. Forty eight yard touchdown. So he's a dual threat. It's going to be thrown to the best receivers in the country. Ad helps in ryan days. Offense is also the guy's a genius. So i think he's going to be really comfortable at least try to make shroud comfortable by design. If you look there aren't a lot of throws in traffic rights. His spread offense vertical. The balls thrown outside. That's going to be helpful for young quarterback but we'll know a lot more thing about cj drought after the opening season. Ri- start seizing on the road at minnesota. It's not the best defense but it's going to be hostile environment. Then you get the home opener against oregon who were projecting a top ten defense and i know also loses best defender zaven collins. But i think they're gonna probably still fight to be a top thirty defense so there's some tests early for stroud out of the gate now you'll get the rest of the offense. Got great tackles in front of them. Probably a little drop off on the interior loose duds like white davis and josh meyers. But i think there's some nice veteran depth to fill in there on the interior day just have shown the last few years like this ability to mull you up front and i think they'll be good again this year last season. Six in line yards. Only twelve percent runs were stuffed. There's big nasty. They got a lot of veteran guys up there that are filling in that played in the sparty game when three. Oh linemen starters were out. I think trae sermon could be a little bit of a loss which was shocking to me. The way he played down the stretch on fire. So i think he'll be missed a little bit. Trayvon henderson's all. The hype is the impact freshman at running back. I think you'll help. Master teak shoulder that load thing at minimum. He's probably a really good help in the past game henderson. I mean he's just kind of freaky when you look at him but ultimately it comes back to where we started. It's it's cj drought. I think he determines ohio state ceiling offensively. But i will say this and you mentioned. There's a little bit of a a discrepancy on. What ohio state as you look at some places like eleven point two wins with juice. Look other places like ten point. Eight with juice were more like ten point four and we know all about the talent but what is. Cj shrimp right. he could be good but is he. Seventy five percent adjusted fields. What if some of the question mark defensively for aisles state aren't fixed so for me locking up money for five months hoping for a perfect season doesn't sound like the best use of funds and it doesn't surprise me that there is some small under money trickling in a little bit here on on on ohio state. I mean you briefly mentioned their schedule and we're going to know a lot about what ohio state is. After the first two weeks. I mean you go. Further on down the the home game you mentioned against tulsa week three. They'll get accurate at home. They go on the road to take on rutgers for their second conference road game in early october. But there aren't really a whole heck of a lot of landmines indiana. I know we'll get to. They'll go to bloomington for that game. And of course. They finished the season at michigan. But if they're able to get through the first two games. Cj stroud looks as good at his debut is maybe guy like jameis winston did and his debut for florida state. There can be a lot of optimism for this team. That game against oregon. It's going to be tremendous the second week of the regular season as will really get a great read on both of those teams and where they stand. And i think you raise an excellent point talking about how much this ohio state team even last year with. The veteran quarterback relied on their ground game. They didn't get going until trae sermon started to shoulder. The lion's share responsibilities master teague never really proved to be that burst fullbacks. We'll see retrieve and henderson provides and defensively. Hey look i think the biggest question carry coons has to ask pain that we were asking most last year. Secondary really can't get worse by ohio state standards. I mean this was a team that gave a shade less than six yards per. Play the worst in school history so from a defensive standpoint. I guess just the average and hope you're young quarterback as able to pick up right where you're veteran left off. Ohio says even seems to be much better than average. And i think they will but there is going to be a drop off because we're not quite sure what the secondary is going to look like the entire linebacking. Core is gone and candidly. As much as i love ryan day they have not shown defensively a willingness to adapt but it sounds like they may there are some discussions of shifting and adapting to a four to five so you mentioned the secondary got torched last year shaun wade finished his career on a downtrend savion on banks was supposed to be the guy twenty two catches in three touchdowns allowed in coverage the final three games on all allows day fifty eighth and passing success. Rate defense fifty ninth and explosive pass. Defense a hundred and five over on epa defense. That's secondary scotto improve when we did the national championship preview dot. I was explicit. That if ohio state stayed in their four three and felt linebackers were gonna cover bama wide receivers is gonna be a long long night and we gave out bama team total over. We didn't think ohio state would adapt. And sure enough. You've got guys like pete werner and tough borland are out there trying to cover devante smith and company in the slot and ohio state. It's torch might. Understanding is ohio state is going to try to adapt to the dimes and go with a four to five the season. They're gonna have a fifth man in the secondary likely a safety which they're going to call the bullet position. Part of this is getting torched by bama. The other part is losing your top four linebackers from last season so there are some holes defensively so i think some of those are the things defensively look for now. Ohio state obviously has like embarrassment of riches. Defensively i mean they got jack sawyer now this kid that they just signed tj. And i'm going to butcher the name to we mow alot in the last few days to five star is gonna be impact freshman. Oh i thought that was a game effort on the pronunciation. His name especially in the preseason. He's only been there less than a week. I didn't quite stick the landing. The russian judge may have discounted appoint there at the end. But i thought it was a good first effort but i just. I don't think there's going to be a dominant unit. I do see some regression from last year. But it's still going to be a top twenty five thirty defense. But i don't think it's there's some question marks there for sure. Yeah and and the one thing is. We've seen time and time again. As far as it pertains to the big ten and the proverbial gauntlet which is anything but for ohio state. That's secondary doesn't often get tested by nfl caliber quarterbacks until they get to the big stage which includes a semifinal games and potential championships. So maybe it's oregon and we to maybe. It is tanner morgan week. One or down the road if they face a healthy mike panics. But there aren't a lot of quarterbacks if you look through that buckeye schedule and go hey look these guys are going to carve us up week in week out so you have to take a wait and see and oftentimes. There can be some noise in the numbers but from ohio. State to the school up north with the michigan wolverines. They're twenty five to one to win the big ten fourteen to one to win the big ten east. Ed faneuil sportsbook and you look at their win. Total it seven you do have to lay a buck and a quarter to go over the total. I mean the reality of things for michigan pain is. This is a program that has a proud tradition. We know about coach harbaugh being on the hot seat and not getting those winds especially against the aforementioned ohio state buckeyes michigan this off season. They overhauled a lot of coaches. So there'll be a number of different faces out there but you josh gaddis returns as the offensive coordinator in conjunction with sharon. More you see. Mike mcdonald come in as the new defensive coordinator. Obviously a harbaugh tie as the former linebacking coach in baltimore. But when you look at the michigan. Wolverines from an offensive standpoint all signs are pointing at cade mcnamara being their starting quarterback. But maybe there's a little bit more that'll be decided in fall camp before we ultimately no the man taking snaps under centers for their opener against western michigan. It's not just a big year for the quarterback position. But josh gaddis this feels like a really crucial season for him and know we know. The offense has changed dramatically but the efficiency has improved. And so that was one thing that we banged the table for right. We just kind of need to get out of this bc. Type offense right this archaic offense but the year before god scott. Their michigan past forty percent of the time last year is fifty six percent pass. So we like that. The year before gas derived michigan used heavy formations at sixty five percent of time last year. Just thirty three percent so there was that stylistic shift that we were hoping for but the efficiency hasn't fallen in fact gone backwards so this is a huge year for gaddis because if the offense fails again he's probably out of town. You mentioned kate mcnamara. That's the question i know. It looks like he's the guy that's in the driver's seat heading into fall camp. Alan bowman said he didn't transfer not to start. And obviously jj mccarthy the five star prized quarterback is the most talented at bunch. But i think our understandings the same here. Todd it sounds like mcnamara is is the leader right now. He knows the offense best. These guys played it. And when i watch him right it's clear knows where the ball needs to go. Does kind of give off a game manager vibe but when michigan's o. Line kept them clean. Mcnamara's good when michigan through action. Mcnamara's good whoever starts under center. Though i think the offensive line will be improved. So that's going to help the injury lock. Last year was terrible. So i think they'll be a healthier unit upfront michigan's o. Line wasn't good last year because of those injuries creating room for its backs outside the top eighty in line yards and stuff rates. I'd like the running back room this year. I think haskins now. He's a fulltime. Starters can be really good. The freshman donovan edwards appears to be the kind of back like harbaugh has not had it michigan yet. He looks bursting. He looks. I can get outside. I think he's going to contribute at minimum in the past game out of the backfield. He just appears to be the type of back. That harbaugh has just been like hoping and praying for. This is by far the best back that he's recruited. I think question marks though receiver once you get past ronnie bell. You had josh jackson surprisingly transfer out after spring ball the washington's and not only do you lose probably your best your second best receiver but he transfers to a dean michigan place week too so i'm gonna spill the beans a little bit on. What josh gad is wants to do and then michigan did landale in baldwin. The jackson state transfer apparently worked out for both ohio. State and penn state and both offered baldwin shows michigan. So let's see what impact he has the fortunate thing for michigan's offense the first month of the season. You get western michigan. You get an you get rutgers defensively. All of those defenses. Were projecting outside the top eighty so michigan has a chance to at least get it going early. There are some brutal games on the schedule. Oughta conference as i mentioned washington. You're at wisconsin and penn state. You closed the earth. Ohio state but at least early on the offense has a chance to build some momentum. Get acclimated to whichever quarterback it is in this new system. Our number michigan seven point two. I know under eight was extremely sharp. There are other places out there that are still dealing like seven point. Seven seven point eight if you could find those in in you. Wanna fade michigan gopher. There is some value there. Not enough for me but there is some value there when you look at michigan pain on the defensive side of the ball. Were expecting a scheme. Change to go to three four. Don brown's defense. That looked old and antiquated. Not every week but every time they stepped up in class against ohio state will be a thing of the past. An uncharacteristically bad michigan stop unit last season. There are some playmakers in this particular group though but they have to be much more effective in creating havoc place last year. Defense struggle the force turnovers only two picks a takeaway. Excuse me coming every hundred fifty five snaps easy for me to say when you look at michigan defensively. Do we think we can expect a positive regression this year in ann arbor. Let's hope you know. At least you have the full offseason to implement this style change. And you mentioned. Dom brown's out mike mcdonald's in go into a three four. We have seen a mass exodus of defenders transferring out mostly at linebacker. That's what happens when you switch to a three or four. But what. I am hearing even if the scheme may look different. I think the principles are still going to be the same right. It's going to be a bunch of blitz. it's going to be playing man. Michigan was the most bullets abby team in college football last season. They played man at the success rate. And i think that's ultimately what they're gonna do. Because mike mcdonald is from the school of the baltimore ravens defense which is exactly that the question really for me is does michigan have the talent corner to hold up in that style and they just haven't shown that they're plentiful at that position over fifteen percent passes. Michigan faced last year ended up being explosive over six percent passes ended up in thirty plus yard gains last season. So it's fine if you wanna shift your scheme but if the principles are the same with constant blitzing and press coverage. I don't know if they have the jimmy's and joe's to pull that off the rest of the defense there is issues there too. It wasn't just the secondary. I mean hundred twentieth and havoc great so nothing was really happening at or behind the line of scrimmage a hundred twenty fifth in snaps between takeaway so they didn't turn anybody over one hundred and twenty third and stuff right so the guys up front weren't really penetrating all that. Well so it's one thing to get beat deep right. If you're playing if you're making plays behind the line of scrimmage you're going to sacrifice deep shot or two if you're going to turn someone over. I never happened in twenty. You're looking at the secondary. It's going to be basically vincent grain. Jim in green. They've take take their game to the next level great safeties dachshund hill and hawkins josh. Ross in the middle of solid and you have eight and hutchinson. He can be around one pick if he stays healthy and has a monster season. There's just not much depth past those five guys and we also saw michigan lost at secondary coach before fall. You brought in maurice linguist who everyone seems to rave about. He took the buffalo job michigan players. If you were listening reading some of the quotes there like maria came in just infused energy into the entire team and poof. He's gone he's having nine. It'd be there for a game. So i think there isn't quite the depth or the talent there for michigan yet to actually show a ton of improvement but if you can stay healthy on the offensive side of the ball if mcnamara can be a solid game manager if you can get the ground game going a little bit if the defense just isn't an abject disaster like it was last year and it's very tough to be as bad as last year. There is going to be some improvement for michigan. You just wonder how much that improvements going to be. Well if there are question marks surrounding the wolverines i think they're just as many surrounding their conference rivals that reside in happy valley. When you look at penn state pain they're listed nine to one to win the big ten fan duel sportsbook six to one to emerge from the big ten east and when their win total hovering. Right around nine you do have to a substantial price to go under james. Franklin has come in kind of selling that dream of optimism. At least he did when he arrived in happy valley. I'm not so sure it's as simple as waving a magic one. And there's no doubt. For penn state they righted the ship last year in a season. That can be rather difficult to do. So you start off. Losing what five straight games you finish with four straight victories. But if you dig into the opponent's they beat down the stretch for those four wins michigan rutgers michigan state and illinois not exactly who the navy and white have to knock off if they're going to be relevant in the conference discussion and again which seems to be a rinse and repeat approach and not necessarily for the best james franklin going to his fourth new offensive coordinator in just five seasons. When we look at penn state. Do we think they bounce back from last year or is it more trouble in the not so happy happy valley. Whatever james franklin is selling seems to be working on the twenty twenty two recruiting class. I am not a james franklin guy. I think you and i both hear rumblings outside of what we do. That is not the best human and these kind of phony. So i'm i'm not james franklin guy and i think we probably saw that again this off season but ultimately he's gotta figure out what he wants his offense of identity to be defensive coach. But you gotta figure out in the year twenty twenty one when offense equates to winning far more than defense what your programs offense of identity is going to be. You can't constantly change the foundation. Expect sustainability and firing your first euro see and a kovic shortened offseason without spring. Practice comes off is insane to me not being able to understand horrific turnover. Luck is the reason you got off to. The slow start is a little puzzling. And you mentioned it incomes. Mike pence fourth. Oh seen five years. The covered is in bear on offense. Let's put it that way. Penn state actually finished top. Twenty five offense of epa. They were just again. One of the unluckiest teams in college. Football poor fumble and clifford constantly airmail passes that led to picks but if you look at the entire body of work. Psu had the thirteenth best epa margin college football despite a losing record so you could make the case that the stock indicator if penn state is a stock is just pointing up because of those things. Offensively there's three key thinks sean. Clifford as you mentioned what is he. What can he be the o. Line which seems like. I don't know he just hasn't figured out the align situation there. There's always a question. Mark and then what. Receivers are going to emerge pass. John dotson clifford's the obvious asia's play better is pocket. Presence was terrible. Last year's footwork was terrible. It's why airmails all those passes then. He loses confidence in. Doesn't even try to get the ball deep. You got to a point where he just wouldn't even throw it. Nine percent of his passes went twenty or more yards. Clever wasn't gonna oppressor wasn't good. When his blitzed. I really think penn state would be better getting him to go back to being more of a game manager. Right get the ball out quickly and on time us more play action and if you look there is areas where clifford was elite. Last year he was very good with action adjusted. Completion percentage of seventy five percent ten and a half yards an attempt no picks one thirty passer rating when he knew where to go with the ball and got it out quickly in those intermediaries. Clifford was was damned. Good the running back room is loaded. The key is the offensive line. Getting better there wasn't a lot of push up front last season barely inside the dot fifty in line yards. And i think that number's really inflated when you look at the best runs coming from clifford creating that extra man advantage in the box so those numbers. I would kind of throw out a little bit in terms of line yards. Clifford had sixty designed runs lead. Psu rushing once you remove sack yardage in protection as he was outside the top one hundred and passing down sack raid a lot so when defenses can their ears back and get to the quarterback in these known passing situations they did the interior of the offensive line. Still unsettled had to bring in a harvard. Transfer at this point. They haven't named starting center. Let's see what happens here in fall camp but it's one of the most important position on the football field and then i mentioned john dawson very good receiver but who else is going to merge you know you have these two four star kids from twenty twenty in parker washington and k. l. s. brenton strange came on at tight end last season. When friar move got injured he showed to be pretty damn good when he was targeted quarterbacks at a one forty five passer rating so hopefully he becomes a nice security blanket for clifford there but there isn't really a sure thing passed johnson now. The other interesting barnier. Todd when i look at the schedule. Psu is gonna face five defenses. Were projecting to finish top twenty inefficiency. So it is a brutal schedule. From that standpoint for penn. State's offense. I mean the other thing too pain when you talk about penn state and their offensive line concerns their week one opponent. Probably not the team. You wanna face. When you're unsettled in the trenches. Going to camp randall in environment. And let's not ignore the fact that most of these kids last year played in venues. That were had a handful of fans. If that you're now going into hostile territory you talk about not being able to name a center to have that continuity things in my opinion for penn state and we'll get to their defense in a second could snowball quickly because not only. Do you play physical opponent week. One in wisconsin. You get two teams. That i think are going to be much better than people anticipate coming into your building in subsequent weeks ball state not going to be as physical in the trenches but hey there goodbye mac standards then you get the rare. Scc opponent coming on the road up. North i mean if things don't start well for penn state maybe the nittany lions are stared down the barrel of an owen three start in an absolute worst case scenario. That would be the worst case in our. Yes and that opening game i think is one that i'm going to watch pretty closely and i'll probably watch it multiple times because i think there's a lot of question marks about what wisconsin can be. Can penn state bounce back. I think we're going to find out a lot about those two teams in that week. One game and defensively when we look at penn state. Last year they allowed a school worst. Nearly twenty eight points per game. They gave up more than thirty plus in five games. Clearly that middle linebacking group was never settled. Mike parsons opting out defensive line. Even this year. In my estimation pain still a major concern is. There's not a lot of continuity there. They weren't able to generate pressure. What do we think we're going to see from the nittany lion. Stop unit the opposite of its offense penn. State's defense doesn't really face a gauntlet of schedule. And that's that's the positive our projectionist psu facing one offense in the top thirty this season and that teams ohio state in the replacing. Its its first round quarterback. You mentioned the big question. It is upfront. A little bit. Penn state loses a first round. Pick jason la shocking. Tony was also drafted antonio shell and transferred to florida. They were the three best. Defensive line in penn state had lesser. You get the temple. Transfer be akita is his name. I believe looks like he's the real deal. He may be softens. The blow of of oa in tony leaving. They added a duke transfer. Derek tanja leo. He's a depth guy he supposed to replace shelton. Let's say you basically have young guys that we haven't seen they're going to be required to contribute. And if penn state's going to improve defensively. It's going to be on those guys. Because i think there were some really dicey situations last year. At least defensively. That need improving. It wasn't just like sean. Clifford being a disaster Issues defense thirty or more points. In each of their first five games it would have been much worse. Had they not stopped so many four thousand temps when i deep dive into some of the important metrics. Psu is not their normal self down to down forty percent success rate a lot You know as hyped as the is on early downs. Psu torch through the seventy second defense pass efficiency and early downs. There wasn't a lot of negative plays being created pens seventieth in havoc fifty. Nine th and stuff right. That's why he only create nine takeaways. I know a lot of people look and say like and you kind of hinted at this at the top that us defense improved down the stretch only allowed seventeen points a game. The final four weeks is what i'm here but you mentioned that list of teams rutgers sparty illinois michigan average offense efficiency rank of those four teams last year's eighty fifth. Two of those teams michigan illinois started freshman quarterbacks in those games the season's lost his dot is over. There were transitioning next year right. So i mean. I've seen projections from others taught that have. Ps defense flirting with potentially being a top five unit. This season feels extremely aggressive Even with this offset schedule. I think a lot of people have bought in some of the penn state height by know what the team that we talked about off the air that felt like there are some real aggressive projections. Not just with their defense but their overall ceiling for this season. Hey maybe sean clifford me wrong. There's definitely been quarterbacks that things have clicked. I just hate the idea of now bringing in a new offensive scheme much like you mentioned at the top talking about you brought into no see that came with a good resume and kirk saroka out of minnesota. You can't after one season and you didn't have spring practice. You were interrupted with covert protocols in a variety of other things. I don't know maybe For me it's the glass half full at absolute best. But i'm not quite sure this bounceback season happy valley that a lot of people anticipate team lead. I don't think they're gonna have losing records so from that. Yes but i don't think they're reaching penn state levels or i guess we should probably say the perception of what penn state levels are known. And i'm not saying this is a team that's going to struggle to go six and six and make the music city bowl by any stretch of the imagination. But i think when you look at penn state and its pedigree people expect them to be a ten win. And if you're doing anything less than that somehow it's a disappointment. So we'll see if they can achieve some of those lofty goals team who clearly exceeded expectations. A season ago was the indiana hoosiers and a hat tip to tom. Allen and what he was able to do taking a early season upset at penn state and using that to kinda cress the momentum until you lost ohio state and then came up short in their bowl. Game against ole miss. When you look at indiana they are twenty two one at vandross sportsbook to win the big ten ten to one to emerge from the big ten east and their win total sits at seven and a half flat. I mean the one thing pain that i think was evident that we talked about was that this is now a program that appears to be built on camaraderie. There's a lot more chemistry. Everyone's pulling in the same direction. Kennett pay dividends against a much more difficult schedule at the hoosiers encounter in two thousand twenty one with a target on their back than what they were able to do a season ago. So right off the top. We have seen some under money on indiana depending on where you look. It's either eight under minus one fifty or the number. You mentioned there. It's really interesting. Because tom allen does seem to get more out of his everyone's bought in they love him and from our perspective writhing. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone not in the hoosiers building. That's been more bullish on indiana the last eighteen to twenty four months than us but there is expectation right. There's five million dollar contracts to live up to for tom allen. There's panic junior being anointed the best quarterback in the big ten by some despite not finishing a single season and tearing the same. Acl twice. When i dug in indiana there are two dramatically different sides to last season success and the optimistic and positive side is six and one of the big. Dan only loss on the highway to ohio state by one score and they made the championship. And now you look at indiana and they return over. Eighty percent of that on both sides of the ball towns bright. The other side of the coin is really ugly. Though in its that indiana finished one hundred tenth in epa differential last season which effectively means when you account for every single snap on both sides of the ball. Indiana's defense allowed a greater epa than its own offense achieved. Okay that's basically what that means. The offensive success was not very good. They're only successful on thirty eight percent snaps that was outside the top. One hundred five offenses indiana's trench play wasn't good either. Couldn't pass protect could open up holes in the ground. Game hundred eighteenth and rushing success rate hundred twenty first and explosive runs panics. There's a reason he's constantly getting injured. And it's because he's been thrown from his ass guy. Among quarterbacks with at least one hundred job dropback last season panics. The twelfth lease time to throw his pressure on forty one percent of dropbox. Yeah you had to treat the ball like a hot potato so many times that needs to improve because when when panics is able to throw the ball and this is what everyone loves about him and he doesn't have pressure in his face and he has time he's damned one eleven passer rating seventy four percent adjusted completion percentage last year when he was protected. Now i think the hope is that left tackle. Caleb jones plays more than sixty percent of games and he looks like an nfl tackle and that michigan transfers at carpenter makes an impact on the interior of the line. If indian is offensive line can go from five orange pylons to below average maybe maybe indiana can meet the eight win expectation or go over seven and a half word is some places but the schedule out of the gate isn't pleasant. I mean we're we're gonna know pretty early on pass. Protection is better if there's more running lanes being open because three of indiana's first five games. Todd were projecting those defenses to finish inside the top fifteen inefficiency. Yeah taking your show on the road week. One for a conference showdown at kinnock stadium against iowa. Probably not the way that you wanna break in and offensive line especially if michael panics isn't fully at one hundred percent and we'll get a better indication of where that niyaz when practice reports start to circulate throughout the course of the fall. I know jack tuttle filled informed. But let's not kid ourselves. Pennock is the guy that makes that offense go largely because they have some in. Our opinion underrated weapons out there in the likes of tie fry fogel. Dj matthews fsu transfer. And of course the big fella in titan peyton hendershot. You mentioned dj matthews. So we get storytime. Ati source. Awesome unfortunate news with tomorrow and terry Dj matthews is the one that gave tomorrow interiors nickname of of scary terry and we now see potentially why. And so. that's an interesting fellow to bring to bloomington so interesting to see a dj matthews works there. Yeah you have to hope that he buys in to who he the we over me concept that tom allen is trying to foster their miles marshall another guy who we saw a few explosive plays last year but just wasn't consistent enough in that offense defensively. You talked about what this group was able to do for stretches We know they bring back a ton of continuity for their four to five defense. Taiwan molin probably the player to watch in the secondary. I mean in absolute ball. Hawk that can eliminate huge portions of the field and while indiana last year. You talked about their epa metrics. I mean this was a group that kind of epitomized the true bend but don't break mantra. They allow just three point three points per drive and had a thirty six percent stop rate inside the twenty paint. I don't have to be a math wizard to figure out that. That's probably not going to be sustainable. If you continue to let your opponents into the green zone let alone the red zone. Oh you're absolutely correct and you know you also dealing with a new defensive coordinator charlton warrant and the pedigree's pretty good. You spent the last few seasons in the. Sec has the db coach for georgia. And indiana's gonna play a four to five so it's predicated on good dv's a good db coach and what players are saying from what i've read and poked around and heard is that the defense might actually be a little bit more aggressive despite keeping that scheme. It's a really quirky defense. You know it's undersized. The front seven isn't all that great the last few years. We've seen them get bullied in the trenches. Last year was pretty much the same hundred and thirteenth in line yards hundred and seventeenth stuff right but the secondary is the strength in. Indiana's gonna play to that strength formation. Which makes a ton of sense. Most of the pressure generated is from exotic blitzes and stunts. Natural pressure has not really happened for indiana. The last few years forty seven percent bullets rate last year. But what's interesting is when they started to manufacture that pressure it got home. A bunch and secondary made a ton of place. And that's how indiana survived on defense last season by creating havoc. But as you're kind of hinted at here it it's tough to replicate a lot of these various metrics which helped indiana survived defensively. You mentioned the red zone for instance. Typically that has a ton of various season season. Indiana face twenty five red zone trips last year. Nine of them teams came with zero points. Less than half resulted in. Touchdowns batted balls galore. Almost twenty percent of of opponent possessions ended turnovers. But yet it all up in you. Actually dig into some of these Predictive metrics indiana seventy eighth in defensive. Epa which is well below the national average and so you know despite all the the luck metrics grossly in their favor. It wasn't the best down to down. Defense fortunately indiana only place to offense. Is this year that we're projecting the finish in the top thirty. So maybe maybe. That's the saving grace that allows indiana over chief again. Hey it's an interesting team. There's a lot to be said about culture and being able to defy the metrics but we talk time and time again you can sneak up on league opponents when nobody's expecting much from you. It's a little bit different once you've arrived so to speak and being able to maintain that personal you're gonna get everyone's best shot and you talked about the schedule. We can just look at the first three weeks going to kenneka. Take on iowa. Home game against idaho and a game that will go a long long way in defining not only the and but also their opponents when they play host to cincinnati the third week of the season. So we'll keep tabs on the hoosiers probably one of the more relevant teams in the east but as we pivot from the east to the west again remind. All of you are loyal listeners. Go to fan. Duel sportsbook backslash. Bet the board sign up news. Our code take advantage of the thousand dollar risk-free bat is the perfect way to build your bankroll for football season. Use it for our best bet win. Totals you name it. A variety of ways to get in on the action even before the season gets here. Encourage you to follow pain on twitter at paine insider firm and you can follow me there as well most importantly they'll follow the podcast at the board pot for all sorts of great updates as we inch ever so close to meaningful football about six weeks away pay no. We begin to look at the landscape in the west. I think this is where there's a lot of injury because there's question marks. None of these teams appear to be airtight on paper offering an explosive offense and complementary defense to go along with it. Wisconsin is the favourite at least on paper. They're six to one to win the entire conference at fan duel sportsbook their minus one. Twenty five to win the west. You look at their win. Total nine and a half over minus one twenty and not to drudge up painful memories but a lot of our listeners. From season to go remember that the badgers were the bane of our existence when it came to best bets as we continue to watch them struggle to move the ball three to five yards a pop but last season didn't include spring practice in was interrupted by a major covert outbreak grammar. It should be healthier going into the season. The receivers that weren't on the roster or available late in the campaign specifically danny davis the third kendrick prior should be healthy and ready to go along with jalen burger as a game-breaker or running back. But when you look at this wisconsin team do we think that what we on paper can translate to real world football success so the reason for optimism and it sounds like you're extremely optimistic based on kind of your tone you know i love you know i love college. Football teams. can't score wisconsin michigan state. The list goes on grim. Merch is interesting right. We all saw the opener against illinois where he didn't throw a single inaccurate passion. We're like i see what the five star hype is about. But that was as good as it got was really bad after that now. You mentioned some of the reasons right injured throwing shoulder. He missed multiple games because of co videoed and getting spring ball. The receiver group wasn't great. And then it got injured and the wisconsin's running back room. Todd was that maybe the worst. I've seen in two decades. I don't even know that mean that maybe ever running on this season it was terrible so you know. You hate to make excuses. But there's validity to what wisconsin went through offensively last season. Now where the conundrum is here is how much positive projecting can you do. And so there's a wide range of opinions on wisconsin. That i've seen from winning the conference and fighting for a playoff berth. If cj stroud isn't the guy to is like an eight windy without question wisconsin's offense is improving. But how far is the leap in. I mean it was ugly last year. Hundred eleven in in offense of epa less than thirty eight percent of offense of snaps great successful outside the top one hundred explosiveness merchant terms of epa per pass attempt was worse than adrian. Martinez has a passer. So you have to take this large leap of faith in manually adjust for merz not having spring ball and again with the shoulder and the series bout of cove at any missed almost three weeks and so those are some things right. Didn't have good. Running backs had suspect receivers. But how far can you manually adjust wisconsin's projection upwards is the question because actually have to do and so. That becomes really interesting to me. Paul chris i think knows. This is a big season that there needs to be offensive improvement. It's why he's taken on. The the added role of quarterback coach and play caller. Said tells you. I think a lot. There's zero excuses this year right. I mean merch is going to be pressured on. Like less than twenty percent of his drawbacks. Because the outline is elite. And you mentioned jalen burger. I think he's got the potential to be the next great wisconsin back. But i'll be candid. As i as i said before like that opener against penn state another team that had a you know w t.f season. It's going to be one that i watched closely and probably gonna watch it. Multiple times wisconsin. Though looking at the schedule they evade ohio state and penn state notre dame michigan in the iowa games are either home or neutral site only four road games this season so there is real potential. If graham is the quarterback that he looked like against illinois there's reason to To have some optimism for wisconsin. This year yeah i mean. I knew that the offense was bad last year. Because of what is told us when we watch them to week i had no idea it was actually as bad from an explosive play standpoint in terms of when i looked at the overall history six plays of thirty or more yards in four hundred ninety five offensive snaps pain. That might have been good in one thousand nine hundred fifty two but in twenty twenty. That's not really going to get it done. Especially when you have a grand total of three plays that covered forty plus yards now. Fortunately for wisconsin. You mentioned that offensive line. That's a big reason for the optimism but defensively while. This may be a big season for paul chris. They'd better get the most out of their stop unit. Because jim leonard's not going to be there for long i'm honestly surprised he decided to spurn. Nfl overtures to come back to camp randall and madison and to be the architect behind this defense but this is a group that led the league in total defense a season ago. Finish ninth and scoring defense and that was despite an offense that really gave them no silver lining as it felt they were constantly behind the eight ball and spending a lotta time out there after that. Badgers offense went three and out. You think there's something jim. Leonard knew that a lot of people didn't know. I think there's always some things that jim lender knows end up. I don't think it's coincidence. When you talk about making the potential three to four hour career shift heading up. I ninety four into northern wisconsin. Yeah jim leonard is going to have another really good defense. He's one of the best coach in football. And that's why you start to wonder if he knew something before many others because no clue how the packers didn't close him on that pitch but he's got a lot returning in immediate turn down floor state like a year ago. He's been turning down jobs. Well turning florida state's just a smart move. Let's not kid ourselves here. That's a prudent career decision. That jim leonard mate. So i'm not gonna fault the guy for that. So when you look at wisconsin. Top twenty five returning production. The linebacker groups elite and leonard seems to get the most out of a secondary because there's a former secondary guy so he coaches up the position. Really well he also brought in hank petite a nfl corner to help with the secondary. This year i think the question for wisconsin becomes is upfront you know. They seem to do very well. Transitioning but guys like kiana. Benton james thomson. Kate mcdonald that step up and be consistent along that defensive line. What impact is forced our freshman. Tj bowlers can have will isaac towns in the organ transfer being immediate impact guy on the edge. So those are the guys up front. That are really going to have to make some. Hey they have to be able to get natural pressure. I think jim lennon we look at his defense very aggressive. But i don't think he wants to bullets that much. He's he's willing to plan an aggressive defense. And he does like the press likes to blitz but wisconsin blitz on more than forty four percent. Snap slashers to top twenty rate in college football. We did see. It left his his secondary. Expose on the back in a bit. And you know. Wisconsin finished fifty eighth and explosive pass defense so by nature. It's an aggressive defense. But i don't think. Leonard wants to bullets that much. Twenty twenty one the the positive though when you start to project out ahead and you start to look at the schedule. Wisconsin is not going to face a top twenty offense all season based on our projections. Not one so. obviously something. Offense could emerge but when we're looking at our preseason projections were putting in her numbers. Jim leonard is not going to face. Top twenty offense this year. Which is Bodes for wisconsin. So there are some positive things here. If you do get graham mertz back in the saddle and he looks like the five star quarterback in and looking at the schedule of offenses that jim leonard is gonna have to face. There's there's a reason why this windows nine and a half. They are the clear cut favorite on this side of the big ten. One thing that does provide a little bit of concern for me with wisconsin more so than other big ten teams not necessarily the opponents that they'll face over the course of the regular season but wisconsin is the only team in the conference that has to play ten straight games. Because they're buying them come so early so they'll open up with a huge game against penn state in their own building. They'll take on eastern michigan. They'll have that by week. They'll have notre dame on a neutral which will jump start a long stretch in for team. Who's running back. Depth could be a concern after jalen burger. You wonder how healthy they'll be able to be this year. Compared to all the misfortunes they dealt with on the injury site a season ago no question about it. That's schedule is pretty interesting. How lays out obviously in an ideal world. You'd like to have that by middle of the season that is for sure at least on paper pain. The biggest competition to wisconsin for big ten west supremacy appears to be kirk appearances iowa hawkeyes iowa listed at nine to one at fan duel sportsbook to win the big ten their plus. One seventy five to win the big ten west and the wind. Total for the hawks. That's eight and a half eight and a half flat will call it right now. This was an iowa team that started extremely slow last year but finished with six straight wins the close out the campaign when you look at iowa figuring out when they're going to be successful well it's been a pretty straightforward formula iowa fifty one in six when they run for one hundred yards two and fifteen when they don't over the last six years. Fortunately for the hawkeyes. This offense is built around a potential all american running back in tyler. Goodson and hey. A lot of people are optimistic about what we could see out spencer petrous in his second season in iowa city. You're not supposed to encourage brian. Farance to call more runs with that little nugget. I think you may have well. I'm not encouraging the call more runs. Maybe use the passing game to open up the ground game. You have to think counter-intuitively outside the box instead of slamming your head into a brick wall on first and second down and setting up third intermediate every single time you play team above average defense and i think that's the question for me because we've talked about iowa's offensive ceiling only being so high with how they play in how brian farance calls. A lot of predictable runs unpredictable downs. And there's this unwillingness to have quarterbacks feet play a role within the offense. And i was still a team that punts plus territory in short yardage situations more than they probably should and you know last. Season's the perfect example of all this. Because you have a great one you have to receivers that are going to be on. Nfl rosters you have the first team all big ten running back and yet you only finished sixty eighth and offensive. Epa and sixty first explosiveness. Last season brian farance puts a governor on his own offense. With how antiquated is. Now i look at. I was offense this season. You mentioned spencer patriots. I think it comes down to him. I think it comes down to the offensive line. You know you'll lose a left tackle. You'll lose your top. Two right tackles you lose a starting guard. There's also a new o line coach. The projected left tackle missed the entire spring. So i do think we see downgrade with iowa's offensive line. The big question becomes is. How large is the debt. And then of course spencer patriots. He finished last season strong. Final two games against illinois wisconsin. Really only two that he finished with a passer rating above one hundred. His teammates are saying all the right things. They respect him for his work ethic. They claim is the first one in the building in the last one to leave. Guys like tracing regaining in the receiver rumor claiming that the timing's much better that his accuracy and pocket presence has improved in that. He's learned to be a leader. He commands the huddle now. Kirk vari- has been saying peaches praise. Basically all offseason says night and day and that he had a great spring start to finish. Let's hope that's the case because his accuracy was really poor last season. And i mean. I guess you give him the deserved crutch that. We give a lot of other teams and quarterbacks for last year is that it's a first time starter and a shortened offseason but no spring because of the the cova chaos but peter has had like this really bad combination of not pushing the ball downfield while also being inaccurate. It's not a good combination to be. Can you know this conservative game manager. That's also not accurate. Almost fifty five percent of his throws reader short. Or behind the line of scrimmage. He only attempted deep throat. Twelve percent of the time and going back to his pocket presence patriots was a disaster when he was pressured aligned at a really good job keeping them clean zone pressure twenty three percent of dropbox but when he was pressured twenty nine passer rating four point one yards per attempt. So for me. Qb align are still the two question marks. i have. I don't know if patriots is just going to automatically become this accurate. Passer obviously does have a full off season to improve on that. But i would say the receiver room while. I don't think it's going to be glaring. Issue is certainly going to take a little ticked back as well. Yeah this is an interesting team. I mean from an offensive line standpoint. They have arguably one of the best centers in the country in tyler. Her mom but i'm not quite sure. They have much beyond that and while we can say we want about iowa needing to do what had to be done with coach doyle being let go. He was an integral part of their strength and conditioning program. In terms of getting these guys to be the lynchpin building blocks not only the translated every saturday throughout the fall. But the reason that iowa's put so many offensive lineman into the national football league and when you talk about trenches for the hawkeyes there aren't just questions on the offensive side pain there. Plenty of questions defensively where they'll have to reload as well. You lose guys like chancy. Golsen david nixon jack. Heflin big shoes to fill in a defense that led the conference in fewest yards per play at four point. Three a pop when you look at the hawk is on that side of the ball. Where do some of your biggest question marks come from or what maybe on the converse where you most confident they're going to excel. I mean you hit a perfectly. I think the question mark is defensive. Line losing those two guys in nixon but it just oddly seems to be rinse and repeat for that position group at iowa so i didn't downgrade that unit as much as i probably would. If it wasn't iowa and candidly it wasn't a unit last year. That got a ridiculous amount of pressure either. Now it's damn near impossible to replicate last season just based on various. I mean i was defensive. Top eight inefficiency and epa explosiveness. Pass the defensive line. The linebacker room looks damn good jack. Campbell has potential to be a star secondary returns all four starters from a group that was top ten in yards per pass attempt to let you get what you get with. Iowa's defense it. It's very meat and potatoes phil. Parker lives in zone. Any dials up. Let's not all that often right. It's it's really this like kinda sit back Beat us by one. Thousand paper cuts kind of defense. That we're just gonna we're gonna hang out here zone and we're gonna see if we get natural pressure we're not gonna leave ourselves exposed it just very bend but don't break keep everything in front passed the in state game though against iowa state. I only face one other offense at were projecting inside the top thirtieth season. You know you miss ohio state. They get indiana penn state and minnesota at home and looking at our preseason numbers iowa's projected to be a favourite in ten of twelve games. Now there's a slew of tossup games in there but even like the trips i was state wisconsin as it stands. Now i was less than a touchdown dog and both of us. We're projecting more of like the four to five point dog range in each of those games. So when i look at at iowa like i think they're going to be solid again. The floor seems to be really high. But i'm looking at our projections. Eight point two wins with juice the markets at like eight point three so. There's not a ton of reason to tie up money for for many months. But i could see a lot of variance right i if this were any other team. That was replacing you know. Three starters along the align and bowl tackles and hadn't inaccurate quarterback in you know as replacing to nfl receivers and to all big ten defensive lineman. We'd be calling for regression but just iowa's seems to live in this ballpark of of seven to nine wins. So it's it's tough to gauge their a model of consistency in for a lot of iowa fans Sometimes it can be more frustrating than anything else with that occasional ten and two season there but rarely six and six is like you said seven and five. You can pencil iowan in good years. They can go plus or minus a game or two in that particular department from the iowa. Hawkeyes pain in. I believe the rivalry is the floyd of rosedale The minnesota golden gophers who are listed at thirty to one to win the big ten at fan duel. Sportsbook tend to one to come out of the big ten west and their win. Total sits at seven flat. I mean when you look at this minnesota team clearly last year was not exactly what golden gophers hopeful had anticipated. The defense was downright dumpster. Fire the offense never really seemed to find it swagger you get rashad bateman opt out and the rest is more or less history. Tanner morgan returns. They have a reliable starting quarterback there but other than that for minnesota all admit the more i dug into this team the more confused i became because i'm not quite sure if they have a high ceiling if they have a high floor or where it's going to land for. Pj flex next trip around the sun in the twin cities. I'm not quite sure in. Minnesota is one of our largest regression candidates last season and i was just looking at some power numbers this morning from their peak in two thousand nineteen to their floor last year in twenty twenty are downgrade was eleven points and i mean it was just i know you and i talked and the new. Oh see that was downgrade. You'll lost to starting a lineman that weren't available last year. In you mentioned bateman opting out in tyler. Johnson obviously moved onto the nfl along with seven starting defenders. Now i've moved minnesota backup a tick since they're twenty twenty four but offensively. They're they're still two huge questions for me. And it's it's mike. Sanford junior the the oc is he any good and obviously who emerges from a receiver group of othman bel and daniel jackson and eleven freshman. Whether they're roger freshman true freshman. What is that receiver group. Look like i am not a mike sanford junior guy. Think our listeners. Know that wasn't quite sure what. Pj flack was doing. When he hired him that might be one of his first missteps. You look at his last few stops western kentucky utah state. Neither good western kentucky was ninth and offensive efficiency. The year before. Mike sanford junior got there by the time he left one hundred twenty and then he took the utah state. Oc job in the aggies were twenty second offense efficiency of the year before he got there. He's there one year utah state finished seventy seventh. And toughish. wonder what chucky keaton's up to these days my favorite utah state quarterback of all time. I'm convinced was on campus for about nine years. He feels like he was also so. I mean you're looking at him. And obviously inherits the minnesota job and there wasn't as much talent there. But the offense arrests again and mike sanford junior just to me isn't a great play caller. He's shown struggle within game adjustments. So i think that's a big thing to watch this season. And i when you look at that i mean what are team's going to do when they attempt to defend minnesota. They're gonna load the box because when you just look at how they're built right now. Five massive oh linemen and they returned one of the most consistent running backs in the entire country and hebron but what happens when defense. They're gonna love the box. Can sanford adjust right. And that's going to be the interesting thing to me. I'm not quite sure. And you're looking. At least tanner. Morgan is going to be in year. Two of the system so he's got to be able to figure out how to keep defenses honest with that receiver it. It's different when you're throw into two. Nfl receivers and tyler johnson reshad bateman. And even bateman. You opted out. Last year. came back. Played a few games in those games. Us responsible fifty percent of minnesota targets. They naveh anybody else in the passing game was just not good. Year-over-year massive decline minnesota's a hundred and fifteenth in epa per pass differential from two thousand nineteen to twenty twenty only twelve other teams in college. Football saul worst decline year over year in. Epa per pass by and so a lot of that is on sanford. A lot of that is on. Tanner morgan did regrets. But he's got a full offseason. So there's no excuses issue. I think we'll see obviously an uptick. You can't be worse than you were last year. And i think you will see some improvement right with with morgan. Learn more comfortable in the system. Brian were also going to have to make a pretty large adjustment. More than normal game to game. I i really believe that because the gophers are going to be able to run the ball and certain teams right there. There's to be able to just overpower certain teams. And it's gonna look like everything's fine offensively but then there's going to be gains were minnesota just can't believe defenses and there's gonna be a massive drop off in offense of production being able to make that manual game to game adjustment. I think's going to be really really important if you plan on betting minnesota this year. Well i can tell you one thing. Minnesota's opener when they welcome in ohio state will be one worth watching with ohio state. Right around a two touchdown favored as things stand right now. Fan duel sportsbook rare. That the buckeyes will play on a thursday night. You know go for stadium will be absolutely electric in that type of environment. Biggest question though pain for as many as we have on the offensive side. Ken this defense get better. I mean the magic number last year was eighteen. And i don't say that in a good context they recorded. Eighteen tackles for loss the entire season that accounted for less than five percent of the total defensive snaps that the gopher stop unit was out there and while the offense regressed some the defense completely fell off a damn cliff. Yeah i mean. I felt that was to be expected. We knew there is massive regression. Defensive lesson you can't replace seven on defense and foreign. Nfl draft picks from a program like minnesota nazi decline and last season flat out like minnesota just got bullied on defense. Just beat up. They could not stop a nosebleed. They were shoved around the trenches. They're outside the top. One hundred line yards stuff right and have a great literally in you. You you mentioned this. Four percent of opponent plays ended in a tackle for loss teams were successful in fifty percent of their offense of snaps against minnesota over fifty two percent of runs grade successful. I and they were just trounced a hundred eleven in explosive. Run defense ball. Carriers contacted on average of three and a half yards downfield. But i i mean it was just one of the worst defensive performances of the entire season from power. Five group hundred and sixteenth in defensive. Epa but. i don't listen your play. Seven starters four on four that that go to the nfl like minnesota just doesn't recruit at that level even with pj flack. It's just not that type of program so expect to drop off. I did not expect that. I mean that was that was horrific. The scary part for context. Todd the schedule wasn't all that difficult season. Minnesota didn't play the top. Three big dent offense as either they evaded. Ohio state and penn state and indiana minnesota. Didn't face offense inside the top thirty five and efficiency last season. So you know. I be improved because they have to be. There's only one direction to go. But it wasn't like they played this murderer's row schedule last year. I don't really like the way the defenses constructed either like. I hate the bend but don't break philosophy. I just don't like right in. Minnesota doesn't play aggressively. They sit back and coverage minnesota's sent blitz less than fifteen percent of the time last season. Now they go out they get niles pinkney the transfer from clemson who should help with that run game that we mentioned that was abysmal. He was had the top run. Stop percentage in the acc in two thousand nineteen was the team captain so maybe he helps improve the run defense some again. I'm expecting improvement here. Todd but obviously nothing remotely close to to their two thousand nineteen form when they made that run for expecting improvement in minnesota. That fan base isn't as devout as the next program were about to dissect and that would be the nebraska cornhuskers who see themselves forty two one outsiders to win the big ten fourteen to one to win the big ten west at fan duel sportsbook and their win total will it would make nebraska barely bowl eligible as it sits at six. You do have to lay dollar twenty to go over. I think it suffice to say that the honeymoon for scott frost coming back home is officially over at this particular point. And when you've said it time and time again when it teams dna doesn't reflect that of their head coach. It's a bit problematic and last year the silver lining for nebraska was. The defense actually had a pulse. I'm still not quite sure. How many times. That offense had to be resuscitated. Especially when you consider. The cornhuskers had two quarterbacks one of which was no longer on campus We're one of only a handful of teams that found it difficult to score more than twenty points against that vaunted golden gophers defense that you just basically shredded. I have no idea what's happening to nebraska's program. Do i don't but i can tell you. From reading some of the quotes and all of that that the bush has been improved culture in buying from those guys still theoretically wanting to be members of the program the reason why find out a little bit troublesome why are so many of the programs top talents transferring out. I mean. I think we knew they weren't going to compete for national championships. But when scott frost went this is the perfect combination. Cause a great coach. Good offensive coach can have ties to florida. Which is an area that you know doesn't really recruit but scott frost winning less than thirty eight percent of his games. The first three seasons and offense as you alluded to being the reason why shocking to me. I mean i was so hopeful. Knowing that wisconsin the top dog in the big ten west didn't recruit at this insurmountable level. I literally thought year three nebraska be fighting for being top dog in that division. I really did and right off the bat issue. Scott frost quarterback rights is four star quarterback his is adrian martinez and you think like the trajectory is going to be in one direction and it might happen quicker than we all think and it just hasn't happened and for nebraska to have a winning record and go over there window the season. I think you hit it. Like it's on the offensive side of the ball it specifically on adrian martinez to figure it out. He just got to improve as a passer simple as that. Hundred in thirty second last season in epa per pass attempt out of one hundred seventy four quarterbacks he was benched at one point even when the offensive line kept them clean. it wasn't good eighty-eight passer rating scott. Frost tries to make life as easy as humanly possible on adrian martinez over forty one percent of throws come with play action. Martinez couldn't even execute that eighty four passer rating withdrawing the play action. There's absolutely zero pop to the past game nebraska's one hundred and fourth explosive. Passing last year four passes went more than thirty arts all season and then you mentioned the talent right. Wendell robinson he leaves he was best receiver. He upgrades to the sec. They do bring in marquee step. Transfer from us's nebraska's projected lead back hasn't been healthy for any of his three seasons you know at us's already missed the spring with an injury. Now he's out of rehab and apparently working in the white room so be ready for fall camp but how reliable is he and yeah. Where does the ground game go. If step isn't the guy we think he can be. If he isn't healthy. I mean it's basically martinez has been the ground game. One of the biggest anomalies in nebraska's rushing metrics. I think because it looks great and excel sheet right. Twenty eighth explosive runs last year. Nineteen th and rushing accessory all is well and then you realize vast majority of that was a byproduct of its quarterbacks running and not running backs so i think it's a little fu gezi that background and the love. It's been getting the positive is that nebraska's offense should start hot. And they have to write the have to build that early confidence they get illinois fordham in buffalo's defense out of the gate those are all substantially below average defenses a murderer's row. I'm trying to be this little kinder gentler. Version of me. Well see below average. It's still also only july. By the time we get to the middle of august. There won't be a kinder gentler pain. Let's not kid ourselves. Yes that's probably accurate but you know nebraska's offense doesn't get into form early. I think things get ugly because you do. Have this difficult for game. Stretch against defenses. All projected to be insider top third and. I hate to over simplify things. Todd but this season and i think it success is is all on adrian martinez thrown. Are you know. Turner cochran looks to be the guy the four star twenty twenty freshmen. He's going to be the starting left tackle. Everyone's raving about the the twenty twenty freshman receiver xavier betts. Who is this homegrown product. If those two can be major. Contributors i think you know the offense takes that that leap but relying on like to really really young is at key positions. It's tough this. This is all on ager martinez. He's got to figure out how to be an accurate passer. And it's it's tough to say that reich. His accuracy is one thing. It's probably the toughest thing to improve on his quarterback. Yeah you mentioned. How prolific the quarterbacks were in the ground game quarterbacks accounted for fifty five percent of the rushing yards that nebraska was able to generate last season. While that might be fine. If eric crouch or scott for us is leading an option offense. Not what you want to see now. With thirty seven of the fifty five explosive runs that group generated. Also coming from that quarterback spot now for all the questions and concerns. We have about the team offensively. Maybe a little bit of optimism on the defensive signed side pain. They bring back a slew of six year. Starters returned to run defense. That was surprisingly stingy last year. By what we anticipated coming into the season and with that string schedule of opponents they can potentially build some confidence right out of the gates and if the offense gets clicking hey who knows. Nebraska starts three and and suddenly. We're talking about this team. Being semi relevant as far as the conference landscapes concerned the six year. That's like jeff's becali territory there. But you are. you're right. There's there's lots of optimism. I think defensively for for nebraska in the coaching staff sounds super pumped and nebraska's top ten in returning production. Because of all those old guys coming back. Five super seniors coaches do think the d. line is bulked up a bit and they're not going to be pushed around as much of the season the trenches. I just wonder you know how good good means for nebraska's defense in twenty twenty one. You know. I guess if nebraska finishes top thirty five in defensive efficiency. That's a really good season so it's always important to kind of conceptualize because you know there's a lot of nebraska fans out there that think they have a chance to win the jamie jeff every air and you say like defense can be good. And they're like a blackshirts or back baby top five. I think a good year is like top thirty five here. And that's the reason why i always try to use the word relative because the todd you read these articles you read a lot of the preview. Content ninety five percent of what you read is is rainbows and pots of gold. And so you kind of have to be able to to separate that as you're going through things and nebraska's defense it's it's going to be a better unit and we saw major improvement last year. But they still don't create a lot of havoc eighty third in the country. It's partly why they didn't turn anyone over. Defenses eighty seven explosive pass defense and on throws twenty or more yards hundred and fifteens in the country when nebraska got teams in known passing situations. They rarely disrupted the quarterback one hundred second passing down sack rate. So you know no doubt nebraska's a ton of experience and we did see a nicely. They went from sixty two top forty last year and defensive efficiency over your but you know. Is that experience this season going to actually take the next step so again. I think like if you're fighting to be like a top thirty or thirty five defense awesome. I mean the reality is. There's a reason why you have to come back for your six year and then you might want to be doctors pain. Maybe they're starting their medical degrees on campus. You always got to be some rural. All of them are meyer enroll So you know you kind of have to like figure out also was the improvement a byproduct of poor offenses. You know you remove ohio state from the equation. Nebraska playing in a power five conference ended up facing offense with an average efficiency rank of sixtieth last season. This year were projecting schedule about ten to fifteen percent more difficult than last season. So you also have to kind of put that into the equation of was last year. The best we're gonna see from from nebraska defense. Yeah and i mean. I think this is a program that really has to break it all down before they can build a back up for those folks that believe much like we did that. They were going to be competing for big ten west. Titles that doesn't appear to be the case is they're recruiting right now isn't even on the same level of wisconsin. Who's actually gotten better in that department. Which is a credit to paul chris. As he's finally started bringing in top twenty recruiting classes so the road to relevance for the nebraska cornhuskers to be a little bit more of an uphill battle than what scott frost even thought he was going to encounter when he left orlando to make his way there. I mean paying. Those are probably the most eight most relevant teams. I know there will be a couple of loyal listeners ago. I can't believe you guys didn't dive in to last year's big ten west champions in the form of the northwestern wildcats and the simple reality of it is. This is the north northwestern team on paper. Doesn't appear to be as good as what we saw last year. We'll see how the quarterback battle plays itself out with ryan who linski opposite hunter. Johnson and a pat fitzgerald's credit. This team typically does more with less but northwestern a team that probably got lost in the cutting floor. There was one other team though. And i kind of wanted to get your take real briefly on them because when you look at the big chinese we know how tough it is to compete with the ohio state. The penn state's theoretically michigan and now indiana but a team has really raised its overall recruiting profile and level of onfield talent would be the maryland terrapins. I mean this was a group last year who combined from an offense passing offense. Look legitimate under little to the passing. Defense was one of the teams biggest strengths but largely because nobody had actually try to run the ball into their defensive. Everyone excuse me. Everyone did run. The ball into their defensive. Front and maryland finds themselves at one hundred to one to win the conference. Fifty two one win the east. Neither of those things are going to happen. They brought in one of your favorite guys is their offensive coordinator dan enos so clearly there ties to the two of family. And i'm sure that played a major role. And while i might not think the most mike loxley as head coach when it comes to axes does. This is a team on mildly intrigued. By because the talent level far better than what you'd expect him to get in college park and starting to get back to a semblance of what they were under ralph region. I'm just not sure loxley could be that guy to get them over the hump. Yeah there is some talent there. And they're recruiting at a level. That is certainly better than what most think maryland can recruit to. I think we're projecting them hire. You just wonder when you look at the schedule. Where are the winds gonna come from. They had a couple outburst last season where they won some games. It might Projected to win. I'm looking right now. Are wind total projections. Like five point. Eight five on maryland. So i think you're going to see that that leap forward in terms of the onfield product. But there's always this saying like. I you lose big than you lose small than you win small then you win big and i think maryland's probably in that lose small territory before they ventured to the next tier but ultimately there is some talent here. There are some guys that locks leaves brought in that have just a slew of talent. And i think this is the year that they make that improvement on the field and it might not necessarily show itself in the win column and then you're hoping that trajectory to next year's there the season where it's really put in the win column. Yeah i would agree completely. And i think when you look at maryland if they're going to have a successful season as far as the win. Total is concerned. We're going to get a pretty good indication of what the terrapins will bring week in week out with their week. One date a defacto coin flip game in their own building. We'll be about a four four and a half point underdog as they welcome in west virginia. If you're able to pull off the upset there the potential to start forno before you host iowa's very realistic with games against howard at illinois state and playing host to kent state. So if you're coach loxley. I think you go in treating the west virginia game like your super bowl As you need to build confidence with some of these guys and we saw italia taegu vilo could produce what he had time in the pocket. The receiving core is extremely deep in my opinion only the number one running back to emerge and the defense well. It's not going to be great by any stretch of the imagination. You just can't give up two hundred and thirty plus yards per game on the ground. So they're going to need a little bit more proven depth. So i think maryland for me One of the more intriguing teams not necessarily for the best reasons But one that will bear watching. I think the market could struggle with proper valuations if they start hot or if the converse is true that they start cold and don't adjust down fast enough with them. Yeah ultimately i think there's there's some variants in the past game with two in that receiver group a lot of talent. Let's see if it's comes to fruition so this is a pass unit that could be damn good or could struggle. I actually think their defense is going to improve greatly. So if you get that combination of a much improved defense in the past game flying high you you have a chance to blow through that win total even though the schedule is is difficult. But it's it's really an interesting team see locks building there. He feels like maybe not. The best action knows coach but if he just takes on the role as ceo and uses those relationships to kenny. Continue to bring in talent. That probably is better than the maryland. Football program should things are heading in a positive direction. No doubt about it. And i think you know as we kind of put a bow and encapsulate slate everything. We've broken down in a little bit more than an hour in the big ten. I don't want to say that it's necessarily the case. But it feels like this is a lead going through a bit of a transitional period. Not only with the top dog in ohio state but some questions surrounding teams in the west. And it feels that when michigan isn't quite of national relevance and people can say what they want over the last couple of years. Sure they have been ohio state. But they've at least been in the discussion that the complete talent that we're gonna see from top to bottom in the big ten maybe a step down or to as they go through a transitional year. I think what we would call. This is the acc. I mean basically you have ohio state being your clemson and then there's just a lot of mediocrity in the middle where variants and you know close game situations are going to prevail here and so you're seeing some of those mid tier teams have the potential to have a little bit of an outburst this season but ultimately there's just a lot of middling stuff going on here from the other teams within this conference. He should be fun to watch as we try and figure out how these teams will go in. There pecking order not necessarily at the top of more that middle of the pack. And what team can pull the indiana type. Surprise through the big ten encourage folks to follow pain on twitter at paine insider on todd firm and you can follow me there. Most importantly follow the podcast app. At the board pod go to fan duel dot com slash. The board take advantage of all those generous sign up bonuses. That are there just in time for football season thousand dollar risk-free bet all the details in the click. The link with this podcast and pain as has become tradition around here. Is we do all of these conferences from top to bottom. Sometimes they avail themselves to a best bet opportunity. Sometimes they don't. Is there an opportunity for us to make a dollar or two as it pertains. The big ten play this upcoming season. Not at the moment. But what i'm going to say. Is this our goal is to churn out thirteen previous podcast. Eight in the nfl. Five in college football. I don't know if we're going to get to thirteen best pats. I'm just being honest. However i do want to spit out. Best bets as we're betting them in before the market move so we do have a best bet. It's just not going to be in the big ten in. It's not going to be in college football. But i think it's one we need to attack now because by the time we get to it for. Nfl season the line is not going to be there. And i think it has the potential to actually get to nine and a half from where it sits now and we're going to stick to a team in the mid west. I wanna go the minnesota. Vikings over eight and a half wins. There is some juice attached to it. But i truly believe aaron rodgers know. Aaron rodgers has the potential to get the nine and a half and it's a little bit of an advantage there because if aaron rodgers is not there then you feel supremely confident about this so i think we want to attack this before. Nfl camp starts. And that's the best way to approach. It will dive into minnesota obviously in deeper detail when we get to the nfl side of things. But i really like what the offense doing this season. Kirk cousins gonna have a little bit pressure now. They drafted quarterback you pick up your ten year. Starting left tackle in the draft. Think the receiver group continues to improve and defensively. The thing we've hated about minnesota. The last few years feels like everything that i am seeing. It's going to be basically a brand new defense you know. You're getting healthier with pearson. Neil hunter the linebackers will be much healthier in the question. Mark we had last year is young. Cornerbacks learning zimmer system in a shortened. Offseason a what we did see last year was that absolutely came to fruition. They struggled but they also showed the ability to make a ton of place. I think in another year in his system one. That's very difficult to learn. Those young guys will emerge lewitt better so we want to get out ahead. Grab the minnesota. Vikings over eight naff wins. It is a little juicy. But i do believe we're going to get to nine and a half by the time. The season kicks off. Look at data curveball. Even i didn't anticipate coming on this fine podcast for all that one in the glove. Nobody saw you know. That's the hidden ball trick right there. you know the pitcher you walk up to the bomb. You see the rosin bag. Hendro rohan garner slips. The ball was first baseman and applies the tag knowing that he doesn't have the same arm to try and throw heat by some of the mets hitters rookie of the year. Yes yes perfect. Analogy minnesota vikings over eight and a half now. I do have to ask the question because we know it's going to be time. Yes yes what. Is the acceptable. Cut off. Price at eight and a half. Just bet the thing. I know you're from like a different school. i'm from the i'm from the school of there's an edgier and it's going to be nine and a half just make sure you bet i'm not from that school. I'm just trying to cut it off at the pass because we know our listeners that we thought i think rights it and we're gonna fire your thing is. We'll we'll discuss this when we get to the nfl side but with the seventeenth game. You're looking at half winds decreasing a little bit in value or at about forty five cents in value there so you are looking depending on where you get it right. Like nine hasn't quite materialized yet. It's basically and a half minus seventy. Do i wanna go over nine. Not really but If you're going to get nine around even like that's that's perfectly fine again. I do think this is probably going to get to nine and a half potentially juiced And so it's just one of these things where we've bet it. We want to get out there and attack it and Most numbers at this current pointer are still really good. Take full advantage. Sometimes you don't have to get to the window of the college football best. Bet all money pays just the same with the nfl least. We stayed in big ten country so a hat tip to you. Mr pain any final. All words of wisdom advice apologies to those folks that may find themselves rooting for rutgers perdue illinois and a couple of the other big ten teams that we didn't decide. Were worth us delving into today. No i don't have much other than illinois. Might be a little bit better than their wind projection. That's about it. Look at you by over lama. Nothing else back next week with. I believe the big twelve. What did we decide for next week. Which direction are we going. Yeah big twelve is what it is that four pain insider you can follow pain on twitter at paine insider. I'm todd firm and you can follow me there as well. Best of luck with all of your preseason handicapping and while we didn't have a big ten best bet didn't keep us from invading the. Nfl ranks in big ten country. But the minnesota vikings and come the month of december. Hopefully we'll see you at the wind. Thanks for listening to the board. You can catch todd and pain every monday. Wednesday and thursday during football season. Breaking down the biggest. Nfl and college football games and to make sure you don't miss any free best. Bets subscribe to bet the board on itunes google. Play spotify or wherever. You listen to podcasts.

michigan ohio indiana trae sermon football josh gaddis james franklin mike mcdonald acc epa harbaugh wisconsin cj stroud Todd furman penn state clifford ryan cj shrout
John Ourand and Aqib Talib

SI Media Podcast

54:53 min | 5 months ago

John Ourand and Aqib Talib

"What up. I'm howard beck. Senior writer for sports illustrated the little breaking news. The crossover pot is expanding. But it's like a minor expansion like adding a game room or a breakfast nook. I always wanted to breakfast nook. What's that mean for the pod more episodes and more guests and not just traditional nba voices. Of course we'll talk to players and coaches and others around the league but also actors comedians musicians. Basically anyone with a connection to the game or who's just a big fan but it will always come back to the nba in this game. We love it's gonna be a blast. You'll still here. Chris mannix than me. Every tuesday on the crossover with the discussion of all the latest. Nba news then on fridays. It's me and a guest. I think it's a great idea. You'll hear it and a lot more so stick around. Walk run to the sports illustrated media. Podcast i'm your host jimmy trained and thank you for listening. Good show today. We've got two guests first. Upjohn ran from sports business. Journal breaking down all the latest sports media business news. Nhl to deals with espn and turner. What that means. What's going on with streaming. I thought it was interesting as john. If he thinks is a good time or a bad time to be a sports fan based on consumption of games at that answer and conversation was interesting and then after john owen. We have a keep to leave. Who did two games for fox former. Nfl player and he's doing some stuff for with bleacher report for their draft and he was phenomenal. In the little time we had with him Had some interesting thoughts on mock drafts. Peyton manning going into the booth talked about his time as a patriot and shed some light on brady and belichick. He was great Keep philippe so check that out after. John ram Before we get to those two spots last week if you did not listen to the media podcast we had adnan virk on. Who is now the play by play van for monday night. Raw and he talked about Being fired from espn picking up the pieces getting a ton of jobs including raw and Life after espn so check that out. Two weeks ago Todd furman on. What's going on with gaming legalized sports gambling and Other recent podcast w. w edge. Scott van pelt. Check all those out in the archives. I let's get to john. I and then following him to keep toledo right here on the media. Podcast all right joining me. Now from sports business journal time us on was january. So it's good to catch up with mr john ron john. How's it going great man. Thanks for having me. My pleasure like i said last time you're on was in january some. There's a lot of news going on then and it's been a pretty busy time for sports media news now obviously They is news coming down. This week was the nhl and turner Announcing their deal. Which i believe you broke a couple of things before we get into. I think when. I had you on in january and i know i've talked about this with other people in the sports media rob. I was always surprised that turner did not get involved in the nfl negotiations. This time around. And then here they come spending all this money on nhl and now they have nhl mba mlb. They do a little bit of golf tournament. Why any do we know why turner in bother getting involved with nfl negotiations. The price has got too high. I think that For for turner for the nfl. The nfl really wants broadcasts To be a part of it. I think that's why you're seeing the espn piece of it adding a lot more abc than it had And they say that you know that one small package thursday night package for streaming for amazon. But the the prioritizes broadcast the attorney new. That you know it In previous years when david levy was turner they they tried to get into the mix with the nfl and you know the broadcast networks were or are there are prepared to pay an alternate was going to do was sort of bit it up and and it was unlikely that they wind up with anything. So excuse me. Sorry so. I i think that the nfl deal is a great deal for I don't know if they're paying too much. Every every story. I've ever written about rights. You know the the network is paying too much and by the end of the contract. It doesn't look like that much. But for turner thing about this they have the nba. They have mlb and now they have the nhl and they go deep into the playoffs with the nfl. They they have actually stanley cup finals. They have the ncaa tournament. they're gonna have the final four in the championship game on You know. I think it's neck next season. They have like those are the big four. They have the they've really have stepped up to where they're a big part of the sports landscape. And i know this isn't your world but they also have a e w rustling which is a pretty amazing success story where they were going head to head with the wwe's then exte- on wednesday nights and wwe just moved off. Wednesday's to tuesday's. Because w was doing better in the ratings. And you know w wanted to get away from it. Which is pretty amazing considering. Aws a startup company but they You know they're gonna take one night a week on. Tnt as well you know and unlike nba nhl in wrestling. There's no offseason. Make all year long. So not only that but i i don't know a ton about it but i i. I have seen the numbers. Numbers are right around. A million viewers it over a million that first week that The first week. I think it was two weeks ago could be three weeks. It might have been two weeks ago the first week that. Wwe moved off of wednesday nights going head to head with awa. W did over a million. Which i mean and how many how many networks especially cable networks would love to get a million viewers. I in prime time. So that's i mean that that is something that is really proving it's value for for turner they only did eight million less than the oscars on cable. No less the the big events. I tell you the the Within the sports landscape everybody's looking at the oscars. The grammys a golden globes. All of them setting record lows this year. I mean the one thing about tv is at. It's been live sports events and all of sudden you have these really big live events. That aren't doing well and people are People are a little bit nervous in this arena about some of those numbers. But don't you think you know. I didn't watch one second of the oscars did you watch any of it. I'm not a dockers oscars. yeah. I didn't watch one second of it normally. I would check it out. I just don't know how you expect that show to do well. When we went to the movies for year next year their ratings will be. I'm not saying they'll be up significantly and people have clearly you know. Don't go out of their way to watch award shows anymore. But i would be surprised if the numbers weren't up next year with people going back to the movies i mean i think that's true but i i mean my pushback on that is that people were stuck in quarantine at home binge-watching everything that came out and the golden globes suffered their worst ever. I i mean. I just you know there. There has been even before the pandemic there was a definite trend. Line that that showed viewership for those for those dachau's no doubt but there's a big difference between like the golden globes. Having the worst ratings ever isn't surprising the oscar thing i mean they the oscars went from twenty four million two to ten million. That drop excuse me. I think you know i think next year it goes up only because again you can binge things and watch things at home but the oscars of based on movies where you go to the movies and there's buzz and opening friday night and word of mouth and go see this movie. They had none of that this year. So i don't know how they're expected to have the show was terrible to from everything you read but going into it before you knew what the show was. I mean i don't know why you would watch it if you didn't go to the movies all year. Yeah and one other thing is that you know the the pre the pre show the pre-game show i guess either red carpet right it. Just it does build a certain excitement you get to see. You know people's what what people are wearing different stars and all that stuff and at and that does help bring that casualty to to watch it and there was much less about the sinus here so that was good oscar standard back to the nhl in So it's seventy turner. Nhl deal seven years. One point five seven five billion. Were you surprised the was able to get the money they got from turner and espn. Yeah i was. I was surprised But by that. I i thought that the nfl's one hundred ten billion dollars worth of deals was going to take enough money out of the market. I took a look at the. Nhl regular season. Viewership numbers on nbc and nbc sports network. And we were just talking about wrestling and the amount of viewers they brought in the nfl nfl games. Were you know none of them. Got close to a a a million viewers in the regular season. And i thought that you know that they might see a little bit of an increase. But i didn't think that they would be able to double which i did and i think that that shows the power of for sports leagues. I think that shows the premium that they're get to have their stuff strained. It's interesting because we said at the top us at the top when we talk about the nfl that they wanna stay on broadcast. Meanwhile everything in this world is is going to streaming. And obviously i know the nhl part of the the espn part of the nhl deal was obviously huge because from st standpoint cause they're gonna put seventy five exclusive games on espn plaza with this time. Deal hbo. Max component. that. I guess won't kick in right away is. Is that correct. Yeah that's going to kick in and a little bit. But you know what i think about. This deal is a it confirms that. It's a big bet on linear tv. There's so many streaming components to so th they're acknowledging the unmistakable trend in the business right now but in seven years from now we're going to be watching all. Nfl games on a linear television except for the amazon package. Seven years from now. We're going to watch the entire. Nhl playoffs and that's all. That really makes the money out of this. That's all going to be available on linear television and to me i've been writing about big tech coming in and how we're going to be streaming all these games for a decade now. And every every time i write about it's like well it must. It's going to be the next time. The rights come up. Well this is the next time the rights have come up and it's still about linear television. I mean they're they're again they're unmistakable streaming components but it's all about linear tv so but the the tnt has stanley cup. It's going to be unstable. It's going to be on. Tnt correct correct. Yeah so he says do you think the from from a consumption of game standpoint. Do you think this is a good time to be a sports fan or a bad time to be a sports fan. I think it's a bad time. That's a good question. I think that it's a bad time to be a sports fan because right now i think that if you're if you're a big soccer fan you have to subscribe to how many different streaming services to get what you want to see and you can see whatever you want compared to. When when i grew up in half the game were you. You could only listen to on the radio. Sound like an old guy now but it's you know it's a lot better than that but i have. I have a feeling. I'm pretty certain that there's gonna be a big shake-out within the string of the streaming space mass to where we're gonna be able to figure out a lot better about how you can as a as a really hard for fan of a certain sport or a certain team or certainly you can figure out how to how to get that relatively affordably bomb very glad you said that because i think it's a bad time to be a sports fan as well from that standpoint but you're way smarter than may. I'm happy because i just think. I think if you're if you're a again john mentioned it. I'm talking about the big time sports fan. Who pays attention to almost every sport. I'm not talking about the casual or woman who's in and out. I'm talking about the person whose life is sports and watches every sport. You still need to have network television. You need to have cable and then you need to subscribe to about eight billion streaming services. So you know. I don't know if you like every sport you're showing out a lotta money every month. That's really what the bottom line is in two thousand ten and before all you had to do is get a cable subscription and you had one or multiple. Rsn's to where you could see all your local teams. You had all these national networks. You had an nba tv nfl. Now we're gonna nhl network and you had distributors. That were too scared to drop any of them. Because they they realized way back when they're subscribing their their core subscribers were big sports fans that were sort of keeping everything afloat bra. That's not the case anymore. And i find all the streaming very confusing. I don't i always let hulu was nbc deal but now they have peacock which won an and the espn deal. I think puts games on hulu but you need espn plus and then you're gonna need some sort of bleacher report apple. Guess for the nhl. If you're a hardcore nhl fan you have access now to every single game and that that should be great but you need a cable subscription you need an espn plus subscription and you can bundled subscription and you need an hbo mexican subscription and all of a sudden that cable bundle that everybody complained about. Why am i spending this much money. When i never watched lifetime you know all of a sudden that's looking a lot more affordable than than it used to and you're always going to need to be able to fox and cbs if you're an nfl fan because that's where those games are and and So funny because those are over the air broadcast. I defy you to figure out how to put up rabbit ears just to get those those channels to come in. It's not an easy process. You almost need to pay a distributor in order to get those or figure out how to stream them. And i feel like anytime. I tried to watch something. That's not on traditional television. I always run into some issue anyway. It's you got subscribe to this or upgrade to this. I mean it's it's not a simple i. I'll tell you a story from over the weekend on a total side note. I decided you know less year in the pandemic hit. I wasn't mentally prepared. Like i'm going to be home for the whole summer. Like i sort of knew it but he was you navigating the pandemic this year. It's a lot different. If you're vaccinated like i am sorta looking forward to this summer so i said i'm going to be home all summer. Still there's no word on going back to the as i also might get a very small cheap. Tv for the backyard. So back there and watch yankee games. It's all i wanna do. Zabel get like a twenty eight inch. Tv for one hundred nineteen dollars. So even if i leave it out and it rains and ruins a tv it's fights set. It gets delivered friday. I set it up. I figured i'll put a amazon fire. Stick in it. Download the yes network app and there i go. I'm good to go ready to watching enke's so comes friday. I'm all pumped up. I set it up. I got the fires thick load. Yes i brought a brand new chair for the backyard. I get comfortable seven o'clock. Let's watch the yankees. And they're on channel eleven w pix at night. And now i can't watch them at all so even when you think you have it all figured out. There's always a curve ball. It seems like when you're trying to watch all these things it's on it's on over the air for the cord cutters your that out to watch it. So goes the whole of jimmy in the backyard deal. I would have thought you weren't watching the yankees this season. I the way they're playing. What do we got here. They play in your oriole's right now battle for last place matt. Harvey turned back to the dark knight. Beat the yankees. Yeah i don't know the streaming thing. I don't i feel like it has to get narrowed down a little bit in the next few years. Yes or no. Yeah absolutely. I think that what what we've seen is really an unbundling of of the cable system. And you're going to see a bundling again because bundle bundled services are more consumer friendly. And they they they. They're going to cost less right now. You have Paramount plus peacock. Hbo max all of these services hulu is stuck with disney plus in. They're actually doing. Why hulu and netflix. I think our disney plus a netflix are up there. And like but i do and you still need your like. If you're new york you want be able to have yasser. I said why depending on if you're a yankee fan but my point is like there was like there's a whole group of like mid level streaming services that are doing whatever they can to step out so like. Did you watch wrestlemainia this year on peacock. I did not. I watched what it was two nights. I watched one night but even that was an issue. Because you can't get peacock yet if you have an amazon fire stick. Are they not download. It's quick serena right. Yeah so you had a that was an issue So that's what that's what. Nbc's doing it's like okay. We have all the wwe fans. So that's that's the way for them to get. I mean i think that this Red zone At the Nfl sunday ticket deal. That's coming down. The pike one of these streaming services is gonna unload a ton of money. Because they're going to use this as a way for it to really sort of step and step away from the others and become something like a netflix disney. Plus and that is by far and away. If i'm just going on the people in my life my friends who follow me on twitter my circle more than anything else that all anyone wants to know is what's happening with sunday ticket but we still have to get through this season and next season if i'm not mistaken with direct tv exclusively and then it'll get opened up so he's still got two more nfl seasons to get through before the change can come off the Sunday ticket lock that direct. Tv has yet how many people are dying to get rid of direct tv. The might my friends that are direct. Tv subscribers solely for sunday ticket can't wait for it to go somewhere else. It does seem like espn plus is going to end up with that. Just based on nothing. That i now. Yeah my my Out of the off the wall predicted. Is i think peacock kit. What will use this to really ramp up and try to get you know jeff. Shell runs universal. He's a guy that did the pj toward deal back in two thousand six you know. That was a such a seismic deal for golf channel. And like he. He's he comes from fox and he knows the value of live sports. That's where i'm going to put my money. Yeah let's switch gears to the nfl draft. Which is thursday nights. Some of you listening to probably taking place already. Some of you coming up. I understand the. Nfl rules the country. And it's not even close with whatever second. The coverage of the draft is completely out of control. And it is. I mean it's amazing. I mean listen you have your espn and your nfl network and abc which will wear it but you know then. Every other side company tries to do their own show. It's amazing to see how big this thing has become. I mean how many mock drafts can people go through. But they all get clicks. I mean they do it if they didn't get viewership on a on all of this it's under percent it's a the the draft has become such a big event I'm still amazed. I don't think we're gonna see in cleveland yet. But no two years ago when it was in nashville the amount of people that came for just what was basically a street party still amazes me like i. I'm a big sports fan. I grew up as a big sports fan. i like. I can't fathom who would go for one hundred thousand people crowding into a street to hear like a names get announced over a loudspeaker to. I mean it's how this has been built into such a big event. And i think that you can see that with all the shoulder program that end companies that don't have the draft of doing their own draft shows and i don't get it but that's just me i. I predict the rating will be down from last year because last year there was nothing going on on the draft. Took place people yearning for anything now yet. There's more competition. What do you think about the ratings addressed. I think the ratings for the draft. They're going to be great. I think that there will be great. I'm saying lower higher lower than higher than lower than is here. i think they'll be lower than last year. Last year. was like a high wire. Act right and remember. Everything was remote. And i watched it just because i was waiting to see it all like mess. Up like Somebody's video freezing or having a go black. I mean it was it was a. I thought last year's draft was a technical marvel. I mean look. We're trying to do alive of or a taped show here and my my internet's freezing in the dogs barking. They were able to do something that was broadcast. Quality that That was that just nominal. And i think that I don't think it will touch last year's rating. But i you know th they have five big quarterbacks that are going in the first round they have a lot of a. There's a lot of interest in in some of the players. That are coming out. A lot of good storylines i think. be down from astier. But it's going to be a really big number. I agree with all of that definitely Another big item that came out this week The dan le batard star up metal lark got a huge huge investment from draft kings. What can you share. Anything with a i know a lot of The libertad audience out there is huge and the stugotz army. Is there anything you can share that. We might not know yet about metal metalworker where we can. I mean right now. It's just a podcast. But i'm sure they'll be tv or some sort of streaming component. Do we know anything yet. The ebony expectations what can you tell us about. Metal arc Not yet i think it's john skipper x. Espn x. zone is is running it He is a of course. Very tight with that lebatardshow. And he John skipper is as responsible as anybody in my opinion for building up. Espn's a editorial outfit. I mean he was at. Espn roll well. Before he is espn's president and was overseeing the magazine overseeing all the editorial going in the dot com. I think that he wants to build something along those lines And i think that he sees a place for that it gets especially if you have people like letard who are who are big names that that can get away from that but what i think so so interesting about that deal is actually had broke the story the draft kings really looking to get in get content and right now. They're starting with podcasts. And they're starting with certain shoulder programming. And i think you know they're they're looking by different publications. That are out there and i think that you can really like if you take this to. Its logical conclusion. You know everybody's waiting for amazon apple and google to bid on sports rights. What's gonna stop draft kings from going in telling. Mls will buy your sports. rachel stream them off. Whatever we will and will be you your users or your viewers will be able to bet on. It went whenever they want. I think that that's that appears to be where this is going. But we're sort of at the early steps in the first steps and when i saw that Meadow lark deal that. That's that's the first thing that i thought about. It's an interesting wrinkle. If dr king's ends up getting into the streaming rights business with sports and you know and and again don't think about the big sports like they're not going to get the nfl would never do at the nba would never do that. But you know at least not for a primary package but you have you know small to mid level conferences and leagues that now all of sudden. Nbc sports network is no more. I mean they're they're less places to go and they're less than you have networks that again have spent hundred ten billion dollars on the nfl. They have less money to spend on some of these smaller networks. That could be a really interesting place for them to to make some money. Just thinking of how you said you think peacock could be a player for sunday ticket on. If they're applying for the lebatardshow. I know they have is in and dan. Patrick could have i. I know that skipper is out there actively shopping at any shopping all the regular people a regular companies these new companies as well. I thought it was interesting to laboratories said draftkings is giving them more support than anyone ever thought. That was that you could read between the lines of that one pretty easily so easily that i don't think there was anything to read between the. Oh that's i was to say so you know it's draft kings and and so much of the. Nfl deals revolve. Re much of the money revolves around this increase in gambling. That's going on throughout the country at being legalized gediminas. Finally acknowledging it. I thought though. Did you see the quote. On tuesday from rob manfred where he said that I guess adam silver told him to stop complaining about the pace of play in major league baseball because the downtime is perfect for in game betting the fact that commissioner even talking about that we have come a long way. I gotta because. I can't figure this out i'm not a. I'm not a big gambler. As i think you know not. I know that you gamble a bit. Like what's is there an attraction for you in a baseball game because you're also baseball fan of saying like this next pitches of striker ball or something like that. Is that really an attraction for me personally. No i love to bet baseball. But i wouldn't bet. Is the next pitch going to be a baller strike but there are enough people out there where that is an attraction in game in game out of everything that's gone on in the gambling world over the past couple of years with the becoming legalized and the rise of the draft kings and the and the fan dole's and whatever is daily fantasy. The in game is where the biggest Opportunity is for these companies to make money. Because you know again you mentioned before they. You felt all doll fuel now. It used to be when i started betting back in college. Echina- day back in the day. You called in your bed at six thirty and it seven or seven thirty when the game started it was done for the night like that was it. It was over then online came in you. Were able to bet like you had a bed at ten thirty at ten o'clock west coast game at seven o'clock on the east coast now online. Gambling came so you can bet the ten thirty game at ten thirty. Now you can bet. Throughout any game you could not watch the first seven innings of a game put it on and then bet the last three innings in bed whose i mean you have unlimited opportunity to place those wagers which means all these companies are just gonna make more and more money. So are you finding that you personally. Are betting more in game. I don't like in game. I'm not. I let me just say this about the gambling thing in in in all seriousness. I only bet. Nfl and college football. And i usually have a ton going on those days with wages. So i don't get involved in the in game we're in game is good as let's say it's a sunday night game monday night game. I don't like the game. i don't like the line. I don't feel like betting it. I'm tired from watching football all day. And then i watch it and then i decided i wanna make a bet then i can. I won't end game a game. I already have a bet on. If i don't bet a game and then watching it and i see something. Oh then maybe. I'll jump in on it but i know a lot of people who love everything about in game. That's another area where you know we're talking about the streaming services in the shakeout boy the gambling right. Now it's like go like a a land rush and you see so many companies doing so many things to do to try to get involved with that night. There has to be a shakeout at some point. Where the you know. The the business term further consolidation. But you're going to see some a lot of consolidation. And i think pretty soon in that was speaking of consolidating that ended on. Because i'm curious. Because i think you had mentioned this we just so the nhl sign a huge deal. We just want the nfl sign. A monster deal. I think baseball signed new deals with turner and espn last year. Nba's coming up. Where does this leave all the sports that are not part of the traditional for majors even though lives in college football as much bigger sport than the nhl but what are traditionally known as the four major sports in the united states. Where does that leave everything else in terms of network deals money. Prophets what they can do in the future you know they're going to have to. My personal viewpoint is that I've said this already but the the nfl deals were so big and they took so much money. Out of the market and these media companies are for profit companies. They they're not just going to. It's sorta they're not cases where they're just gonna give money just to you know something that doesn't rate to these. These leagues and these conferences need to demonstrate that they they have a substantial fan base. And that's a substantial fan base that has great demos young male demos that are willing to spend And it's going to be tough. I think it's going to be really tough for them. Because you have you have cable Service cable services are the subscribers are dropping like a stone. You have nbc sports network. Going going dark. You have other other networks that are just like you know kind of they're not in growth mode right now so that the the big question is It's going to be very easy to get streaming deals as we talked about. And you'll be able to go do that but like if you're going to if you're going to go on a streaming service you're only going to appeal to your hardcore fans and most people like linear tv because it's it's a way to get people to a sample their product and it's just it's going to be a real tough road moving forward for a lot of those Smaller smaller leagues definitely a bummer Went went to the nba deals up with the espn and turner. Off the top of my head. I think is Twenty four but we've got a little a little bit away and that's going to be really substantial. I mean i. That's everybody's been talking about when as big tech on a come in. That's last cancer. The that we have for this cycle for big tech to really swoop in and do something and nba could have the type of fan base or somebody like apple. Just kinda says like dog it to us. That's that would be interesting for sure. I'm not predicting that that that that would be something to look at all right so you got a little break till twenty twenty four with the nba. Then that'll be the be fun to see what happens with that. I mean i feel like they've been with the spn and turner for of definitely forever. They had nbc before us. Peon how that shakes out. Well again like what we saw from the nhl what we saw from the nfl. They prioritize broad linear television and broadcast television. Right all right. I appreciate you coming on and giving us some info very very enlightening stuff. Always good to hear from you on this kind of news. So i appreciate it love on his jimmy. Thanks for having me now. All right take care of they save look. No one's perfect. Even the best baseball players strike out with the bases loaded. The best golfers sometimes three-putt with the tournament on the line. So if you feel like you've come up short in the bedroom sometimes it's perfectly okay but it's bothering you. 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All right joining me now. He was a big head in a limited run in the fox booth last year. And he's going to be part of bleacher reports draft show on thursday friday and saturday former. Nfl player keep ta- leib gabe going all good. I'll good how you doing doing well. Thanks for coming on. I I know you get ready for big draft show with bleacher report. The nfl draft. I feel is just blown up in a way that it's hard to even imagine the coverage and i'm curious because you've gone now from player now you're doing the media thing Can you even believe how big the draft has become in terms of fan's thirst and appetite for. Yeah i mean it just disputes. On our game we a fans every year. And i'm is not like is a small deal it was. It was a big deal in as an eight when i got drafted man. So is a huge event. Man is a is a is a celebration for them. Young guy right. Did they make a big right. You're going to be doing The studio stuff. Bleacher report gridiron thursday friday saturday for the draft. Are you expecting What are you looking at. Bring yourself to this show. I'm just curious because we saw you on fox you very loose people liked it where your philosophy going into the gridiron draft. Show the same man. Just know sherman knowledge man. I'm i'm the i'm the. Nfl perspective in nfl. Out of this day. So i just missed teams mass studying rosters depth chart stuff like that so coal in emceeing connor is some fun guy so much to be a good time so tell me about a little bit last year like i said You're a big hit with a lot of people. did you. Two games for fox week. Ten week fifteen right. You did the washington team vs detroit and then did eagles cardinals which i saw a lot of. I wrote a column Saying we need more of you in the booth just ca. Why only two games last. You're all come about for you. Take me through your your last year with fox. They're doing the games. Well when when. I got the call from fights while my agent karma He said that they wanted to sign me to three game deals. It was like a max of three games and you know is a chance that you would do no games. 'cause you not on a team where to beat team so you just kind of filling for god's with all its covid stuff going on Like an audition really man. I probably like ten k. For the game right. Really get no kasim Game but It would just opportunity opportunity to go out there. Not see if you can do it or not. I honestly it was a. It was an opportunity for me to see if i enjoyed it. 'cause it's not like i'm hurting for cash right. I'm right on his good right so it was opportunity to see if i was going to enjoy it or not for myself and i loved it man. I loved it. It was a real rush. It was it was about as close as you can get to plan in the game so besides coaching. But i loved him man. I loved every minute of it. And i'm looking forward to doing it more to season ten k. For three hours isn't bad. Em's and can't can't complain about that. It's a tell me what did you tell me what you liked the most about it but let me ask you this. Let me start with this when you were in your playing days. Buccaneers broncos etc. Did you ever think you'd go in the booth. Never okay never. I never i never. That's why so crazy. I came up. I never say like when. I'm done playing. I'm gonna do. I'm gonna get in the booth on play-by-play commentate like i. It just came about man. I kinda start paying for the rams next thing you know. I'm in nfl network box office just meeting with the guys next thing you know. J. b. is calling me saying that. I wanna do a three game deal next thing you know. I'm against them tips and reminders from jerry. Madeline and a mini booth. Who's j just for the listeners. Out there s a my agent united agency was this something that you pursued or was it the networks pursuing you way would they kind of pursue me. I mean i don't know to what extent my agent them you know. Pursue them out white. When i was done. I'm like art uneven job. Somebody gimme on fox like you know kind of asked me did i wanna do it. I'm like yeah. I tried out. It's cool. i'm sure i like it. I love football. So i feel like it kind of found me man kinda just fell right in my lap. And what kind of feedback did he get from the fox higher ups because you were. Obviously you were different then. Most of the cookie cutter analysts were used to. And that's why. I thought you were great and a lot of people did and fear someone who covers. This is that you know executives. When someone's different they try to change them a little bit and make them more cookie cutter. Which i hope doesn't happen with you. But what was the feedback you got from fox. Executives was good good feedback man. I made me smile. 'cause i got it puts miles on my face from the higher ups wa wa talk to and They had no problem with me being myself. They actually like. I remember like jake man. The producer was like like he be key like we had our production and he liked. Don't try to be nobody else. Be regular key like they reminded me to be regularized. Loose is keep man. That's even want to hear. So they want me to be myself up there. I i i. I haven't watched the game. Like octa i could have been. I'm talking kinda proper right there. I could be myself a little bit more and so they was just super encouraging for me to be myself. That's what i really enjoyed about it. Well that's an interesting point do you. Would you prefer like you know. Go back to fox next year. We did it. You had a good time but you are a little bit limited in what you can say you just said about. You know you see a crazy play like oh my god that was fucked up. You can't say that on fox but if you do maybe like a streaming dealer. Maybe a little looser does one appeal. But obviously you're gonna get more money from fox than what what is going through the keep mindset for like next year year after a deadly definitely the money comforts healing work without seeing that money. Like you know what i'm saying. What if if it was something else in the works man. I hear a amazon. Prime is getting to football. Some of the game's going to say you know i think. Jd mentioned them. One time and so i'm open. Any man is football. I'm a football fan. So i love the stay around the game in almonte studying. I kind of retired. 'cause i was todd studying but not be so bored now for the draft and stuff and our my studying on my putting the working man. So is you gotta do a lot of work in studying for the draft to come to that definitely i. I studied the players. Maybe like top five top seven each positions top. The top guys top guys but for the most part man. I'm the nfl perspective. So i really. I really locked in on these teams and You know depth charge and things like that what these teams could use. So i can know how valuable these pigs won't be as a guy who was playing recently and now you're transitioning into media of these eight billion mock draft cycle on and all these quote unquote draft experts. Do you look at it and smiles. Like oh this is a bunch of bullshit or do you take it seriously as 'cause now you're on both sides of the fence. So what do you think about the way. All these mock drafts come about well. When i was when i was playing and when i was coming out myself i kind of thought like a bunch of bullshit and you know i kind of think anything right now. It's still it's still a bunch of bullshit you know is entertainment man. It is as a football fan when there's nothing else going on man. I can look at the draft in cedar guys anticipate the guys coming nancy. How good they issued a top. Db's is it and things like that so it's still a bunch of boys shake because you never really know who's gonna be good. Who's going go. where what gm's thinking but is an attainment to say. The least makes me happy to hear you say that. Because i think that's what i know is i know me and i think other sports fans gets lost in the shuffle that sports. It's supposed to be entertainment. That's why you were so refreshing. Doing those two games for fox. And i'm sure it's one of the reasons. I'm looking forward to watching it a little bit during the draft. Because i know there'll be some entertainment there. People sometimes forget sports. It's supposed to be about entertainment associated television. That's the that's the most point man we entertainers at the at the end of the day. That's what they're paying us. Millions for because we entertain. This has got to be a little careful these days. 'cause you know one slip up and you're gone. Yeah yeah yeah. Yeah i mean that's that's entertainment right. Yes eh. who is who are some broadcasters. You you enjoy listening to well. When i really getting ready for a look at it like this when i was trying to be the best corner. I'm watching sanders charles. Woodson right so trying to be the best commentator. I'm watching who get paid the best. They probably the best from watching troy aikman in rome. Oh you know what. I'm saying so. Nobody gets paid like romo as actually so i. I think i think able to do a good job. Man and get their point across at the same time and teaching entertaining at the same time so no one of the things. That's always tough for player. When they transitioned to the booth is being critical of other players. Because you know most of the guys you just played with these guys. Are you ever feel hesitant about you. Know if you've got to knock a guy and montauk about going over the top of socks pumped about someone makes a bad play. You gotta call him out on it and you may know these guys that difficult for you or that. Is that easy for you. As i'm getting there i'm getting there. I think it's easy. They make a bad play and they make a bad place. I've been calling guys out from making bad place whole career right. But i think when you really gotta like you know maybe like pre game or post game you really got to talk about the guy That's what i'm getting used to. I gotta put them aside with them. Friendships aside and i just the truth. Is there an example. Where there's a guy you're friends with who you may have had to critique and it was uncomfortable for you. I don't think not yet not yet. Maybe i had to think about a little bit. But i think the game when you call in that game in the booth is going so fast. You'll have time to really comes. Whereabout in is not like that. It's it's a it's a it's a real real pace. And i feel like if i if i said i mean listen you only two games so it's not like you got a ton of experience doing so obviously there's room for appropriate if i said to you what's the number one thing you want to improve on. If you do games next year what would you say. Say take just my speech taken out the arms and demands for show. Definitely gotta get the Man every other word. I got got a big guy so i feel you on that. I do a lot. I could work on that i can. I can get better at it though. I know it so i think just taking those out man and and just replays i. I was kinda slow on the replays and marshall but i see like troy and tony them sometimes they replay it immediately after the play phone down until what they want to watch what they want to know what i'm saying. Lock in on editor rape replay. Quick so i think if i can if i can get on replays and get to my explaining a little bit faster. That'd be good so couple more here before we wrap nano. Obviously you pressure on you when you start doing this draft show biard gridiron because you gotta know what you're talking about and no these draft prospects but i know for me personally to an end. See what you're gonna wear after that second game with fox when you had that on now you've got to maintain the standard. Do we have a special outfit for thursday night. Got a fit. Man i got. I got a fitter too casual though so we in like suits and stuff. So you know be. It's going to be a little disappointing because the soup game there because a lot of stir there on twitter. I won't disappoint though man. I i won't is. I went to the store. So we'll get something something notable it'd be a see that was something else when you did the philly arizona game. Yeah it was christmas time. And i think the game a couple of days before christmas so little festive had had a chandra. Give me a little festive. And that's what she came whitman. She always come with the people who became. I keep to lead fans during that game the tune into bleacher report. There's and they don't wanna see something you know something. Stand out on you. So it'd be nice neat man. Tell me do you have any sort of deal for the twenty twenty one season. Are you back with fox. You still working out. What's what's your status for twenty the twenty one season. Even i mean it doesn't get started for another five months but where we got so i hear i hear they kinda kinda hone in on that situation after the draft so as right now i'm still free agent but hopefully i'll be freezing too long. I'm sure if these networks want someone who's original you won't be a free agent too long 'cause you you you were. You were a fun listen. I enjoyed those games the second game. I heard clips to the first one the second game i watch all thing and i enjoyed it so appreciate it. Hope you back and then Like i said you can see a keep on the bleacher. Report gridiron draft. Show thursday friday and saturday Yet any like wild prediction for the draft. You got any thoughts on the draft. Before i let you go. Wow perdition for the drafts Let's say really. Wild me fox quarterbacks top ten any while right everybody's that right. Well forget the driven. Ask you this. You played with brady. 'cause you played with the patriots. We surprised at all. He was able to win the super bowl at his age last year. Na na and surprise at all man you you surround him with talent like that in bed. Defense called fire right at the right at the perfect time i did. I did a podcast. So i kind of follow defense. Follow secondary's all year. They was kind of high on my list at the beginning of the year. Then they kinda you know fizzled out towards the middle middle slash end of the year but they kinda caught fire right right again at the end of the year man so you you surround brady with that in a defense like that. Maj doubt he can win again. This year i was gonna say they're bringing everyone back so i guess you won't be surprised for a repeat. I definitely want. Were you when you play that year for the patriots. What did you learn about tom. Will you surprised by this accessories. Yeah party working to. What did you learn about tom that. Yeah you definitely see a factor man guys you want in the building. I wanted to impress excuse. I wanted to impress bill but should at practice. I'm prague's against time i wanted to. I want him to notice me. I'm going to stand out and impress him just as much man. And that's what you notice. Alight respect is due to roof man in you. Can philip guys guys showing up on time. Not just for bill showing up on time. 'cause tom show up on time every day and and and it's just that competitive nature Even in practice meetings anything we doing time super competitive a if you around them. You really could fill it. So i'll say to him to things and a year and a half. I play with the patriots season and a half. that's that's probably the two things i learned. I noticed about him. and what. what was it. Like playing for belichick. Tom tom thomas he does. He does have a good personality. He's all about work and focus but we see the personality come out and he's got something there ballot check a little more reserve. What tell me about the ballot check personality. I think it's a different than than guys. Think from the outside looking in man he he witty man. He joke all day. He get on god's butman so he really showed it to the media. I guess just the little spy. Gate kind of The media so he really mess with the media man but in a building. You could really see his personality. Man is second to none interesting. Yeah i build not really a big fan of the media. Seems like and now you're part of the media. Is that weird to hear that. You're part of the media. I am the bill told me you need some for me manual. Hesitate to call new anything meal. Show so man. I got the you know i got the i got the past. Can you tax them. You have his number if you had a text them. Say it again. Do you have his number if you had a text them. Oh yeah are calling me answer the phone. All right there you go. That's a good thing. Is we this this week this weekend. A little busy but definitely. I definitely got a bill like then. That's a good contact to have if you're in the what about tom can you take tom. Elliott definitely both got. Tom pay the other day. Ad me for my email. Ma i feel special man when i when i. When is this a random tuesday wednesday. One o'clock your phone beeping in his manny on actually email. So maybe you could shed some light on some rapid on this for the last three or four years. There's all these rumors that know. Espn wants payton for monday night. Football and people want payton in the booth and peyton never does it. Why do you think that you think putin will ever become a broadcaster. Man i'll i don't. They got enough money to pay. They got a. They got a double what they pay romance. They got forty million a year to get paid booth me he expensive. He's going to be the best one ever. Did it so expense that i mean. That's a ball. He hasn't done it so we got to see. Yeah i know pay is nobody. Don't think faster smarter. No football better than paying so it'd be the best ever do it. Well romo's getting seventeen and a half million a year so we'll see if they are you five minutes thirty five million pain yet especially monday night football to all. Yeah he definitely need thirty. Five million disney can afford it. They can afford it. I keep appreciate it. Good luck on the draft show. They had gridiron thursday friday saturday looking forward to seeing what we got what you're going to have on their that wraps up. This week's episode of the media podcasts. Keep toledo was a blast. Really enjoyed talking to him. John and great information on what's going on there with streaming and sports consumption very interesting time if you're a sports fan who likes all the sports there. Your your walls getting killed If you missed any reason episodes of the media podcast gonna the archives check those out. I'm on virk last week. todd furman. Wwe star edge of impact. All reason guests so subscribe rate and review. That wraps it up. We'll see you next week right here. On the media. Podcast stay safe and take.

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Adnan Virk on WWE job, ESPN firing, movie and more

SI Media Podcast

1:03:52 hr | 5 months ago

Adnan Virk on WWE job, ESPN firing, movie and more

"Around the band across the pond off the beaten path. There's a lot of ways to say you're going places but only one. Suv that helps you. Get there as a family. The newly redesigned santa fe. The suv made for getting out there and doing more together so take the scenic route because the santa fe's equipped available h. Track all wheel drive to help you get off the paved road a little further together and it has advanced safety features like available blind spot view monitor. That can help you see. What's their side of the car. When switching lanes this is huge. I don't know how anyone drives without the blind spot. you monitor. It is huge for safety and one of the best new features. You can possibly get in a car. Plus you'll stay comfortable wherever you're headed. The santa fe's available premium nappa leather seating generous room for five and sophisticated interior. Styling nothing like rumi cars. You need it especially these days. You're always packing a ton of stuff wherever you go. This has plenty of room in the santa fe so get out there and find new adventures together in the new hyundai santa fe and more about the santa fe by going hyundai. Usa dot com. Welcome everyone to the sports illustrated media. Podcast i'm your host jimmy train of thank you for listening. Great show today. I'm not virk. Who is the new play by. Play man for monday night raw and also worked for mlb network nhl network dozen podcasts worked at espn and is a huge movie. Fan got the oscars this sunday. If you're listening before sunday the twenty whatever. It is sixth Lot of talk about his career are joining. Wwe firing from espn Bouncing back having so many jobs and then tons of movie and tv talk with Annan it was very very very very fun conversation so check that out in a moment let me i tell you that if you missed any reason episodes if you're gambling fed todd furman was on last week. You know him. If you're in the gambling world we talked about a bunch of things related to sports betting so make sure you give that a listen andrew marshon on a bunch of sports media news two weeks ago. Wwe fans listening for adnan. Virk adriaan three weeks ago. Check that out and scott van pelt four weeks if you missed any of those give a lesson in the archives subscribe to the media podcast and if you can rent review that helps as well. I am plugging. let's get to a non virk right now. Right here on the media podcast. Join me now. This is usually where like. I list the jobs but if i think i think if i did that it be here till about may so. We'll skip it and go through it when we start getting into the conversation. His latest job is the play by play man for monday night raw. Wwe on the usa network a non virk non. Has it going. I'm doing great jimmy first time long time. I'm glad we finally get to catch up. You can ask whatever you like. We're gonna go in different directions. But i'm going to give you my feedback. I saw my favorite episodes have included robert floors lawrence shahada teammates. Mlb network vamp. Easy great talking about bad beats james jamila. Hbo book and i share kinship. An adoration of the sopranos. And the larry sanders show. It's one of the all-time great shows. I remember all my god. I listen. I tell people like i was before my time ago. That's like beethoven was before my time. But i can still appreciate. Hemingway was before by tom. I can go back and read. The old man too see sanders shows the best. So i i'm eager to finally chat with you. I hope things are well. I really appreciate that always bizarre to me when someone actually listened when i hear that someone actually listened to the podcast. I still think there's like four people listening. When i do this and i i mean i've written column for a site for like fifteen years and i still think like four. My friends read it. No women someone says You i'm like oh my god you read it. I feel the same way about my own work. So i appreciate it. It's bizarre on the sopranos. Guys have been the best ever today. Sopranos listers right. Now who are like me. And jimmy listened to sharpen imperial when they're on jimmy's body shoddy. Listen they're talking sopranos but those guys were great. They were really good that that turned out. You know it's one of those things where you have the mind and you think. What don't we know about the sopranos like. What can we possibly discussed that. People don't know about you. Know what i mean. And it's you know my dream interview is probably larry david and even with him. You know everyone knows. The show's not scripted. Eh you know. It's hard to get. But i thought imperial lee and And they they. They did a good job when i had them on west summer. So i was impressed with that. Larry larry i can get into the larry sanders by just say this if i went back and watched it during the pandemic when we were corentin it holds up. Oh yeah definitely holds up. The shows that the finale is the best episode of the entire show. Out finale. remember correct. Jim carey was unbelievable. That followups oh goodbye. He was the first seen. thank god. He's watching the mets ends with the three of them together. Already an hank. And and i never until i started working in television i realized how prescient that show was. It is so exacting from the needy insecurity and self absorption of the host the to the ho producers to the doofus sidekick like corner o'brien. One said he goes the best thing that show nailed is the combination of god. I love this so much. And i gotta get out of this. Larry has a duality. it's basic rip torn on. That show is just beyond brilliant. Just one of the best if you google rip. Torn one liners from that show. It's unreal and appetite tells great stories about obviously. Yes it you know. It's funny we'll get into all the sports stuff and raw and everything else and you'll yard that joshua's run topic. I'm just curious because you do. Have the movie podcast. Yeah sinophile of adnan virk. And i guess it's going to deliver libertad. The new lebatardshow setup passion for tv as movies or is it movies. I tv second. Would you say they're like one. A one b. Yeah it's one. Eight one bay jimmy growing up doors score. I still do and i said okay. I'm going to be like martin. Scorsese's remember when i went to ryerson. Which was the university of toronto and immigrants. There's no way my parents were going to pay for film education. Is that no. So mike clever idea was i was gonna major in radio and television arts which i did and i said robert altman. My favorite book is easy. Riders raging bulls And coppola lucas. And almost director the seventy s and one of those is robert altman. And that's interesting all tv director. And then he said film and said okay. I'll tell my parents going to school for broadcasting. They're going to dream that. I'm like on sixty minutes. But although the tv directing thing go to movies. And instead i started there. And i took like a film one a one class and was terrible at directing and you know when people ask you for advice. I always tell them. It's not what you love. It's what you're actually good at. So even though. I wanted to be a director. I was actually horrible at it because i had no visual sense and as you can tell i'm very voluble so it's all but words rather than pictures so i always said okay. I'd love to work in movies when that didn't work. I said this is a natural segue. Broadcasting of course always been a sports fan. Yeah 'cause i'm more of a tv that movie guy but the oscars of this week in nine years so we'll get into all that let me let's start raw though because it was a fascinating announcement when it came out. Were i mean. I love you. Know one of my one of my good friends who have had on the podcast. The bunches cal. Brandt and i love. I love the trajectory of someone's career. You know he was on the real world in days of our lives rome and now going football you started. Espn going through it. You covered everything there. Mlb college football college basketball talk shows. And now you've got mlb network. Disown monday night raw you when when when the monday night. Raw thing came up. What was your first reaction. I love the fact that when you said. I've still astounded when you actually see those words driven jimmy. This actually be true. The way it went down as nick was by longtime agent and of course. He's now the president. Wbz and you know this is a relationship business so you have a good relationship with somebody that means something. And when nick latino i smoked him and thanked him for all he did for me and my family. I'll always be so grateful to nick and his stewardship and mentorship. And and i said something the effect a if there's anything for me now let me know. Okay sure never thinking it would come to fruition and i. My understanding is that w. w brain trust wanted. A voice wanted something different. And michael cole. Who in addition to being the voice of smackdown is obviously part of the brain trust and he was talking to my agent. Matt olsen. who in many ways is nick. Protege and said okay you know. Who's the guy in russia. Think my bill to do this. What about adnia. that's intriguing. Done anything like this. As you said a lot of things that he s been virtually everything so they sent stuff. I'd call boxing zone etc and then i went to the audition but cheer point. It's one thing to say. Oh there's mutual interests it's another thing that they can actually get the job. Like when i flew down for the audition. You've done this jogging. Well hey why not. Why wouldn't you at least try this. But i called a few matches and everything seemed to work out and when they actually called and said you've got the job. I was floored but your point. It's also about managing everything. We're in a very tricky time. In the world in terms of kobe traveling. I've a fulltime job with major league baseball. So i was a great going to do this. That i'm able to travel and overcome quarantines as you can see in the last month and a half. The world has improved immeasurably in america as april. Third the cdc said if you're fully vaccine you can travel mesko quarantining as i am. So it's been a lot of excitement and elation mixed with trying to balance all the different balls in the air but when it came to your point i felt like i was jumping out of a birthday cake. It's opposite marilyn monroe but imagine imagine. Imagine keeping that surpri jimmy. I told five people my parents so tell me. Announcement came out a week ago. Let's see monday was twelve was twelve. When did you know you got the job. So i addition february fifth. They told me in february. Got the job. But then i had to get. Mlb to sign off marks. That took some time the vaccinations. Ww basically said. The job is yours if you want at the end of february. Yeah if. I'm if that secret till april twelfth. That's impressive in this business isn't it. I always joke it. I said i told my parents my brother my wife and one of my kids. I have four kids. I told one of them as you can't breathe a word to it since your point in this business. That's pretty wild. Yeah couple of a couple of things on the wwe gig. We'll tell me first. What is your history as a wrestling fan like. Were you in it. You know saturday mornings and the in the eighty. I don't even know if you were born in the eighty s and saturday mornings and had an on but like where did it start with it. And winning a pickup. Take me through. That shirt was a kid. I was certainly a rabid fan. I mean i wish by still have the hulk maniac shirts. I had as a kid but my brother would watch it all the time and i'm sure anybody who had siblings listening knows what it's like to replicate moves and imitated being canadian. I mean i'll never forget the wrestlemania six at skydome. When it was all vs warriors. I remember the time that was like the highest rated event most fans ever an event. Skydome like it was. It was breathtaking spectacle. It was demolition my favorite tag team. But like i mean. That era is unreal. I mean particularly hog output were ric flair. I mean that that whole generation of stars. I think anybody my age loves and adores and then when i worked at the score which was first major job in toronto which was a national sports network. The best ratings we had was wbz content so we actually had and smack story. Wilson interviewed other stars. When they've come through i worked at. Espn got so many jobs. Different things as you said you kind of move away from it but that natural fandom and enthusiasm has never waned in such respect to the operation. I know you're a fan as well as i tell people i go. I have a full respect and appreciation. what wb does. I'm amazed at anybody who would not give me an all time favorite story. Line that sticks with you. Well i mean listen anything with bobby. The brain heenan just thought he was such a mastermind. I just watch it because this guy. So clever if the ways manipulating everything. I thought his smarts was great. I mean probably the best to ever do it from broadcasting standpoint and i thought it was amazing and that that was always interesting to me is a little guy i wasn't saying. Hey i wish i was santana nailing a flying forum more like man. Jim mouth of the south. Jimmy hart is unbelievable. I love those tend to be icier million dollar man but we they pull the strings love dulles guys now one of the things that struck me as interesting when it came out that you got the job and then you know because you know i'm a wrestling fan and then i'm sort of like you know covering media for s i sure and one of the things that struck me that i thought was interesting and a little scary for you is. I mean you got right into it monday night raw a month. Doing this show a month doing that. Show maybe you know were you okay with that. Would you like some practice shows. I know you call two matches or something like that. But that's not really doing. Three hour telecast live on a monday night what about jumping right into it with no sort of. I don't want practice but you know a little experience under the belt. No you're right. I mean that's why they say. Ignorance is bliss for agassi learned. Fans that listen. The right after media is a huge deal. You're making her debut. There is an absolutely. But i'm of the opinion. It's baptism by fire. At your point. I call the few matches off a monitor. But you really only gonna new at once. You're in the chair. I can only watch the people doing it so much. So my thing is how like a diet. I've someone trying to lose the same twenty pounds for twenty years but it's not really start. It's where you finish. So you're gonna let suppose i'd done a month of matches that first night talking to be bumping you're still gonna make mistakes. You're only going to get better by doing it. So i could understand if they had said he wants to do something else. I but at the same time. I respected the fact that they had conference amita and listening to what. Go out and get this done and i should mention. I'm burying the leader of the fact that with corey graves and byron saxton. When i knew. I had those guys at okay. They're really putting me in a position to succeed. Like graves is like herbstreet. I worked to them. And i said man he can do play by play. Any can do color as a former wrestler. He knows it byron party. I said you know byron. same thing. He has all the elements of great broadcasting along with phantom. So i said okay you know what it is a big time spot. But they're giving you a great team around you kevin dunn producing etcetera and to your point. Listen i auditioned to the job. I mean if they didn't think i was good enough to do it. They wouldn't give me the gig addition they liked we go. Was there any hesitation. Your part was it a yes right away. All yes right away. I mean the only concern. I would have had is as i've been joking. I've got more jobs than kids so with on through that before there is a chance i mean i guess you know you never know but people get thrown into that announce table basically on a regular basis. You even though you're the play by play man there could end up being some physicality to it at some point or not intentional. Your anybody who's ever denigrated me. I'm praying for this. Thank god he's gonna get a steel chair crosses back but to your point night. One when drew mcintyre got thrown to the table. I did not know that what's coming and you can watch. The tape will quickly see corey and byron bail than as an idiot did not better. I just hung in there. This scottish warriors landing on the table in front of me so they too. I realized when they come. You gotta run so a little different than being in the studio baseball. Mlb network it's a caucus. Exactly dan please sack is not going to throw off. He disagrees the by opinion or bill. Rip never so it was definitely jarring but fun at the same time and to your point when you get opportunities like this you gotta say you and i know how fickle this businesses these. These rarely come around. Just say s and figure it out. Now i know michael cole was sort of the catalyst in getting you the job. Have you met in person face to face vince yet. I have yeah. I met him after the second show and he was great. He was released supportive. He'll give good feedback and he. I don't know if you wanna is he in your headset during raw i was. He's giving real-time feedback. I definitely know what he's feeling but now it's interesting when when you're there it's like as a lifelong fan. There's so much that goes through your mind when you see. Vince mcmahon like obviously you think of him what he's done on the air but then i was. I was telling my friends who go. This is one of the great american success stories. Ever have had a doubt right if you think back like oh better himself with i. So many of the fact that this is going into this a global entity. It's kind of remarkable. Like as i was talking to him. It's tough not to just think about all these accomplish amazing. I've always said that if you take it. I've always said that if there was going to be one documentary. I want made from the sports world. S i'm counting. Ww in the sports world so if some asshole on twitter it on tv and say it's not a sport. I think by far and away. The number. One person for that. As vince for me at least i because there's so much we you know in this day and age we we sort of know everything about everybody. We don't know much about vince. I think simmons is is doing something. i think. There's something in the works. Maybe with simmons doing it i remember. I spoke to simmons when he had the phenomenal. Andre the giant doc on hbo and you know. I asked about another wrestling dock. And he said he wanted to be vince and love to see that one day for sure. I couldn't agree more because just because you said like i can't think of any other corporation or operation of that size and popularity. Were somebody's that involve dated. Yeah right most corporations sl or is bannon. We'll be now we have bosses but they're not literally day to day going through everything. I mean that kind of passionate work ethic. I think it's unparalleled that really do now. Wrestling fans can be. Let's just say there are unique bunch. Because i've experienced that myself. I've had wrestlers on this podcast. And i see the ones that come in and i just can't believe what i'm reading started jumping but i love edge fellow canadian. Worry well read here. It's seventy two books. He was great. I yeah he was great But the broadcasting is very very important to wwe fans and listen. I've said this means anyone who's calling anything any play by play person analysts. Don't check twitter. Don't look at twitter. Yea stay away. it's not worth it But wrestling fans are sort of another level. Have you experienced any positive. I don't know. I haven't checked so i don't know if it's been positive negative. Sure there's only been two weeks so for me. I'm not going to write a column of someone doing something for two weeks. But obviously fans don't care have you checked feedback and if so what has it been like so far. What are the great piece of advice. Michael sediment amigos listen. Whatever you do. Please don't check social media. And not and he goes no. I'm serious about this because no one listens and then they check it and either way jimmy. It's not good if you're great doesn't matter if they say your awful that also doesn't matter like there's one man's opinion matters. Don't lose sight of that. What was funny is i get home. And i took michael's advice to heart. And i'm talking to my wife. She's had to go. And i said all right now. I made some mistakes and stuff. I'd like to get back but according barak great. I think i'll get better. I thought this was good. And and i only really get better by watching. It's when i watched the whole show. I watched start to finish. I haven't yet for the second one. But i will say okay. That was better than i thought. It was worse than i thought. And i think when you make a mistake again you'd like to make zero mistakes. You want thousand but he can make a mistake. Don't make the same mistake twice just learned from it right starts saying all. This person tweeted this. This one says why would you tell this. I called my parents jimmy and they got same thing some other go. Yeah you're checking twitter. And off for god's sakes it's amazing to me that when people are looking for feedback social media is you and i both know each generally place where people are spewing vitriol and is not whether saying man train us great. I love his stuff right right and you know it's and i do think you know you're going to have. They're going to be wrestling fans out there whether this is justified or not. Who probably just going to have sort of a negative impression of you. Not even based on what. You're calling just have a wrestling background. There used to ross so right off the bat. That's so that's what you really can't take it seriously. Yeah right. I think and certainly people were going to have that impression. Who's interloper network television world in my domain. He does not we do things here. You go all right. Listen i think of the great ernie harwell line. Of course the tigers play guy. He said that when you start a new job people are initially resistant. And they're gonna crush in no matter. What just because they're like whatever and he goes after you're there for a year two years whatever whatever it is. he said. It doesn't matter if they like you or they hate you. they just get used to you. I think ultimately happened there. There will be fans will say. I can't stand him. But i've been listening to him for so long. I have no choice. And as you. And i both know ultimately leader watching the event like who cares of the announcers are well. I push back on that a little bit only for on monday night raw. Does it matter like like you said about the mistakes to me and this goes across all sports. I've said this before. A broadcaster push messes up a name as his up number to me. That's so you're doing live tv three hours. There's going to be a mistake in there. You don't wanna blow a game winning call of course and the mistakes have that is not how i would judge. That's not how i judge brought. I mean listen if you're making fifteen mistakes a game. Yeah then there's going to be an issue but a mistake one or two on a name is not the end of the world. If you're doing a good job and everything else. But i will say on the i push back only a little. Because you know the case of like jim ross. For instance ooh. Wwe probably swami mentioning this because he's related but like he added a lot to a lot of matches so there you can do that But yeah that's a lifelong die in the business became sort of their iconic broadcaster. But he you can add. I definitely think you can add to the to the matches Which i think just takes time in your case when it's been two weeks notice. I'll be clear you can enhance the broadcast. My point is only simply as you've written your commerce said to people you're gonna watch superbowl regardless right. I like jim nance or not. But i i do. A great broadcast could certainly enhance the product. That's true yeah now tell me. I need the your schedule. Now gimme the schedule. Now that you have because i did raw obviously two nights ago on monday and then you're on baseball baseball network. What the hell is that. Mlb network on tuesday. And then you have all these other jobs mixed in taping pot to podcast. You do the movie podcast. Then you have a gm shuffle podcast. What is i need the weekly schedule. Take me throw it. Sure so i'll give you this week. So yeah sunday. Sunday morning with my eldest son. Twelve year old yousef had grows baseball game so that was great. Came home are nine for in two quick sunday brunch together then i balanced flight gets the sunday night to florida raw on monday. Tuesday morning six am flight tampa atlanta though direct that early at leads it's newark land at ten thirtyish and then eleven. Am meeting. i'm into mlb network. Eleven thirty. i did a show called the rundown of me and bill ripken from three until four. Dan o'dowd involved as well came home. Tape stuff for zone. Disown has nfl rights in canada. So i'm doing some mock drafts with draft coming up as you know next week so tapes himself stuff there. Everybody has a mock draft. Oh my god you're not breathing. You don't have a mock draft. let me tell you. What's the lines at seven. Okay sure you know. Knocked it out and then today admi did some radio in toronto. I do radio hits nine o'clock the gm shuffled michael lombardi. Again we did our mock drafts what to expect. Now i'm talking with you tonight. I'm gonna do interview chase claypool. Of course still just who's canadian. He's gonna do his version for zone tomorrow. I've got baseball. Mlb network the day after that of the nhl which also owns it will be networked. And then saturday baseball wellman sundial fly so they do. The movie podcast. Let's just reminded me advising normally tape on tuesdays and of course the oscar on sunday. So the good news. Is you know with podcasts. It's at home it's loose. I've got some notes but we're free between all this trying to catch up on the wwe story lines and stuff like that one hundred percent. So that's the big thing. Is you know it's not just plug and play. Michaels doesn't just shop all right guys. We got it's still a matter of keeping up just going on the website watching youtube videos trying to learn all the finishing moves the verbiage strike as as you said it. It's a law. But i think you have to embrace the challenge. You have to realize that you're only going to be as good as the preparation. Your work ethic us now. You mentioned you doing. Mlb network nhl network. You have raw nfl stuff at espn. Did college football. Do you have one favorite sport. Baseball's always been my favorite sport. So i mean growing up in eastern ontario. It was always baseball in the summer and hockey in the winter. So i'm grateful to baseball tonight for so many years and i would be able to act nine years. What was your highlight. I think probably the number one. Now that you're asking me this but the number one day was when i filled in for bob lee and outside the lines and then i got in the car and filled in for obermann when he was doing a show in new york. And i said you know. That's a pretty tough when the police so you could probably and keith olbermann the same day. That's pretty good but the second would be. I got to call games at yankee stadium. Wrigley field fenway park as a baseball lifer the fact. I've got to call those games and go to the world series. That's always been my favorite. Mlb network but amazing. And i should say against thanks to rob mccleary my bosses are you know jimmy other companies would say. Listen you're ours. And this is it the fact that the allied you do other things shoddy stuff for turner bass urging works on. Espn that's really cool that they allow us to do that. Yeah well listen in this business. I mean almost everyone has more than one job. It's i mean you're a little over the top but we gotta do you gotta do you know. Obviously you had this famous dismissal from espn years ago. Did you ever think then when that was going on that you'd end up in this position i mean because there is this thing i think it's not i don't think it's it used to be where like if you're in sports network for espn or you look over his pants the end of the world. But we've seen it now over and over with you know. Dan patrick is in etc. There is life after his pin But you've really edit a ton to the resume. So what when that happened. Did you ever think you'd get to this. There's no way i mean it's beyond my wildest dreams made that point assist. Okay take a deep breath. Let's get through this faith. Family friends all right. How did we get through this. And i think the biggest thing is people told me people who have lost jobs and try to bounce back this you know as cliche as it may sound. ignore the setback focused on the comeback. But the most important things this it's character and reputation and your actual work so they said you know people perspective employers say. Is this guy gordon or not. You see him on television or on the radio or podcasts. Can he deliver or not. Does he have the chops. And then furthermore everyone knows everyone in this business you know. They're going to tax people go. What kind of guys. He is you guys. Bad guy is easy to work with difficult. So i think if you have actual talents god given talent and you're actually a good person people. Well hope that things work out for you but your point. I never would have imagined sixty two years later. I don't want to rehash what happened. Everyone knows what happened. I'm just curious when you look back now. Do you think it was fair. What he is handed it. It's interesting i think at the time. Obviously it was very upsetting. And you don't even really kind of because you're in that bubble it's hard to be objective about it. You know i think. It was an overreaction on their part but at the same time you know it's a major corporation that they're overseeing an and i understand how public sentiment appear to be on my side. And i said well of course it is like. I'm the little guy from canada and they're big bad monolithic. Espn so it's not always a fair argument with things get framed but in my view i thought it was over reaction. I thought it was necessary but at the same time jimmy. All that i'm doing now is based on the nine years that i put their right to this day. People still go that. espn guy. So i the seven to two hours of tumultuous ending. It never erases the good feelings of nine years. They had all the friends that i keep in touch with and all the great relationships so i think in the moment it's maybe it's kinda like a relationship ending right in the moment camping. She dumped me. How could you do this to me. I'm a good guy an effort to go. Hey know what it all works out for the best and incredibly grapefruits worked out for the best. Yeah i think too. I mean it's been proven out. I mean what you did is not something that you prevent you from getting other jobs. So i'm not the bounceback shouldn't be that shocking. Because it wasn't. I mean there i mean people get like oh for so much worse. I mean that that definitely seemed a bit over the top at the time. So yeah i think that's always tricky to say okay. You know whenever something happens. If k what was the action who is the person who your point. It's almost like you get copper. Speeding all right and you get thrown in jail but go ahead wait a second. It seemed like how many times has this happened where this happened. Let's get through this first defense. That kind of stuff. Well and you're gonna have people like me defending you because we want people to leak stuff to us so we can't really say this is a scrape but he was leaking information. You know the funniest thing is what i had people who were again listening on my behalf like you should listen to marcia and trainer said okay. I'm trying to get a job right now. But you gonna be a transcript of what they say about me. I here's what you should be now. You should be bragging about the fact that you got the wd wwe monday night. Rajab in february and it didn't come out until april twelfth. Like you've proven that you could you know go tell you should have been leaked exactly the top live here yeah it. It's funny too. Because i got laid off. I left this. I went to foxsports got laid off and luckily by and like you said you know it's once you survive those first few days. It's sort of like almost anything. I see this with people when they get these twitter. Controversies like you you to take forty eight hours and just do nothing. And then you'll see it you know if anyone's out there looking for like broadcasting advice like just you know if there's a there's insanity take two days to just relax and then you can sort of focus and go forward. Yeah but i think probably both sympathetic individuals but what happens when you go through it. You become even more empathetic. So what they've gone through. The last year particularly sports media seeing friends lose their jobs in the business. You really feel for them. But that's why. I make the effort. And i think i did before but now especially the call in texas. Hang in there to get through it this past year. What's it been like few in terms of in terms of work working from home. Not a problem. don't like it. I mean so many jobs. So i would imagine you know you gotta get used to it but that doesn't mean you like it. Yeah i one of our other favorite seinfeld. It's like. I'm just tired of seeing people's background. I don't care about your kids and your dogs and you're like i want to see you in the studio now. I the same way like especially. I'm a huge talk. Show fan obsolete. Zander's going back fictional talk show. But like when i'm watching colbert ever came on. I was like this. Just isn't the same seeing them in their dead right. Like i'm tired of it was cool for like two weeks. Yeah i feel like everyone should be out of their element a little bit sometimes but after like two weeks yeah it it definitely got all. Yeah but now it's your point you have to be malleable. You just have to adjust my biggest fear. Is all these kids run around. Someone's gonna make some noise. That's always my thing michael. How unprofessional but to your point. Civil go makes us like voice but kids voter rail the viceroy. Listen that's life. I'm thinking i just hit me now. I i'm an idiot for not realizing this to like you still haven't called an event. Wwe you've only done tweaks but no fans. Yeah that's going to be. God is going to be an experience and a half when you finally get to do roll with fans in the stands you tell people bad. Listen this is all great fodder for the book like chapter seven. Wwe like the first time. I'm calling raw with fans there. It's going to be electric. i can't even imagine. forget twitter. you'll get it right in your face. The thing that's the thing though. Say it to your face. So rustling fans might. They might be the one group who well the thing. Is you have to have a sense of humor about it. Like it's it's the old axiom right. Take take your workers. They don't take yourself seriously. And like i think joe buck is a great example of somebody who always great with twitter. I'm just cheering against your team. Yeah that's exactly this is about have you gotten i mean like i said it's only been two weeks but have you gotten to know any of the. Wwe superstar is a little bit. I'm sure you've probably just had. Maybe i don't know if you've had more than just brief conversations. But i mean know i have him on this podcast when i can because it's a fascinating lifestyle and life. Is you know like a guy. Like roman reigns live out. A bunch mean when he comes on. He's one of the greatest guys and you know he was on one about magilla seinfeld like you. Don't get any of that when you watching. Wbz program you could. Bonnet roman reigns shrink. Okay let's go so But there you know fascinating people in what obviously what they do. No one else in the world does so from that standpoint. It's very unique. Oh it's amazing. Jimmy and you know because you're a fan of it but like when i first went through for the dishes i was at the athleticism is incredible. It's i i'm watching it. It's like a movie like you're watching people behind the scenes at so well orchestrated so smart. Okay i'm going to try this flip and this suplex and this year that like anybody who can't appreciate this clearly lost unless you see it up close and personal. I recommend anyone once. We can actually go back to a live show. This is so intricate. But your point. I've met them backstage. Kindest cursory conversations. But everyone's really friendly. Very welcoming biggie. I was so happy when i met him. He was okay. Hey guys to watch like oh thanks. It's your point full onto them. Sports fans yeah right so all these played in college. Yeah exactly so. That's pretty fun background as well media. Podcast is brought to you by progressive. Have you tried the name your price tool yet. It works just the way it sounds. You tell progressive how much you want to pay for car insurance and they'll show you coverage options that fit your budget. 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I really get into the backstory of whatever. I'm pouring out of respect. There are literally years of experience behind these bottles while turkey at the same recipe says hundred and two. You want a true classic. This is what you want to order wild turkey while turkey still incoming lawrenceburg kentucky copyright twenty twenty. Campari american new york new york never compromise drink responsibly. Let's switch gears to the movie. So i didn't want to have you on for roy. Now you can talk about other sports and the movies thing and then i was a little embarrassed to tell you this. You haven't seen any of the oscar nominees for the oscar nominees. I've seen i think two movies and twenty year. I saw and coming to america to. I'm a comedy drama guy. I don't do sci fi. I don't do the star wars and the lord of the rings and all latte style. I give me a comedy drama with some realism mixed in so the only two movies i've seen this year borat and coming to america so let's start with that given your review of both of those i thought it was fascinating and i said on my podcast and a foul which as you mentioned was previously on cadence thirteen now with metal arc media which is the dan le vian either way. It's interrupt you mentioned backgrounds before if anyone's watching on youtube your background is phenomenal. You don't have the talk shows with all the bullshit parts and nobody reads. You've got one poster and it's it's your sinophile but from. Espn a fire. You gotta rip that down thing. I've figured a way just to get a magic marker. Espn pin thing. On how amateur hour set up. But i thought it was amazing. Jimmy and i tell people like that guy. Sacha baron cohen is like daniel day. Lewis okay method. That's method acting like literally when he is thinking. Those guys houses that was in character for a week. This isn't a couple of takes. All right caught us regroup. He's like that all the time. I don't care if you like politics. I don't care if you like the movie or appreciate messaging. It's remarkable work is doing. I wish it was up for best actor. I'm glad the film is at least received recognition. Maria back is up supporting actress rush. Might when i don't think she will either up or screenplay might win. But i honestly understand. This guy should with an academy award. It's remarkable the. Does he really should have been nominated for the first one. I loved the second one too. Yeah i i enjoyed it. The first one is really remarkable what he did. I thought you know the second one. He's got some experience with it but But if you watch a lot of movies someone like do what you care for. More than anything originality you want something fresh when cisco lieber i raised about fargo and i was in college watching. It kept saying. I've never seen a movie like fargo. It's your point it's a comedy it's a crime film. It's a drama it's a harkening to pass films etc so it's like a movie film festival with the first one. It was so audacious asics. It's very rare to say. I've never seen anything like this. Before and again as larry sanders guys shanley was a big influence insurance. Such a bird colonies. Schilling was unbelievable in terms of helping them know that. Yeah watch the documentary. That on sailing session. Brian cone is in there and he goes. Gary would send me notes in the first. Borough was amazing. I did not know that that's unbelievable. And he said he goes growing up in england. Because there's bbc one which was like eastenders. These classic shows bbc to more avant garde shows. and that's the larry sanders show was me and my buddies all said this is the best show on tv. So it really inspired. I was a huge fan of sasha baron cohen from the alley do show on. Hbo and i remember watching that. Now i don't know. Did you watch that when it was on originally on friday or saturday nights at like eleven o'clock midnight and i remember watching it and this was before twitter so i miss that feeling like i would be watching going. This is anyone else. Does anyone see what's going on here. Is anyone else seeing the show. This is the most unbelievable thing i've ever seen if the media which nobody else picked. That's what it felt. It felt like i was blown away and go from ali to borat to bruno and it was unlike anything i'd ever seen before and so when i knew borat would be good just based off that i had no doubt. And you don't wanna do that. Sometimes because things don't live up to the obviously seeded the hype. Oh yeah the funny is when you actually see him in interviews. He's so eloquent and articulate and passionate go well you know it takes an intelligent person to play the fool right. Tackle the other way around but he can really dive into it before coming to america. You mentioned them. So i'm just curious were you were you into movies. Where you big siskel and ebert guy. I would've when people ask me my favorite tv shows i'll start listing through curb your enthusiasm. Larry sanders show the sopranos homicide life in the street. Siskel nira they go away. Why go that's one of the greatest shows ever and you know this and the media you can't throw a stone five minutes and go. That shows influenced by cisco neighbor crossfire. I take first things first. It's all cisco neighbor. One guys arguing here. I go back and watch oakley sometimes if you want them arguing about the doors. It's amazing and if forbes so much of my education as as a cinematic fan because there were so passionate and you could honestly see both sides of the argument and when they really agreed like do the right thing. Hoop dreams like they. They were champions for films like that. So it's funny. You say that i went. I did. I went back into the rabbit hole and watched a bunch of them. A couple of you know what i did. I did it when coming to america. Came because i wanted to see their review of the first one one liked it didn't and then i watched a bunch of their reviews. You know i'm a big howard stern guy. So i watched their review of private parts. Which was fascinating to say. They love geometry right. I think they nailed the fact that this guy great and no one knew who he was at the time and they had high praise for. I always i knew them. I watch their show but also they were great guests on howard show so that i was curious review. It'd be because back then. Everyone was repulsed by howard. Who's in the media. And they loved him so that sort of i was intrigued by that and yeah that show was for that time was really really groundbreaking and you know all about chemistry all chemistry hugely influential and the fact that like they're literally the catchphrases still remember. The balcony is closed the fact that two thumbs up took off and some people like despise the film criticism because they said listen. We're used these long-form elaborate pieces from pauline kaelin andrew cyrus and now it's being reduced to two thumbs up like we are dumbing down since i like the way the way twitter has done this thing but it's like i am elaborate. I wanna be as garrulous as possible talking about these reviews. I don't want twelve seconds. I don't want rotten tomatoes giving eighty three percent. that means it's good so i think they're unfairly. Criticized read egrets. Prim reviews were amazing. He can go illitch at ten thousand words driver and it's really really exceptionally well written but their chemistry to your point off the air not always close friends like there's a great documentary rodr which they call cut and they start sniping at each other you keep screwing this up. You keep doing this. I was like it was genuinely animosity. Was there as well. It was great outtakes of them on youtube. If you haven't seen it so coming to america to what was so high expectations like all of us. And then you go okay. I was lucky enough. You know. I get to see the screen or ahead of time. Because i interviewed every louie anderson and by the way was great. He was on the podcast. Wonderful guy really salt of the earth and he's not nearly enough for my liking but anyways when they you know this when they give you a screener mcgee a couple interviews okay. Well human nature. You don't wanna crush the thing now. They did give me twenty minutes of lawyers and watched the way. And i go all right. All the best jokes are the rehashes and retreads the original. So anytime a steeple comes out the key. Is you have to have the dna of the original but then extended an ad in new information and i thought the callback the barbershop scenes. Of course incredible. We can have a whole movie of that. There's a movie called barbershop. And spiral eddie murphy. Did but i thought the new material wasn't enough to carry. It felt a little softening diluted. Feel like we just became best friends just as mama arabia because what happened was i got the i mean. I was waiting for this movie. I think eddie is the funniest person of my lifetime. I was waiting for this movie. Obviously the first one is one of my favorites of all time. Yeah and i got a screener. I did a giveaway in my column and train of thoughts. Watch the movie and was like a boy. And i couldn't sweet about it which you know in this day and age is like not being able to breathe right. Here's my here's what i felt like eddie was barely in it. Yeah he's not he's throwing he should be in every scene right. It was like a small supporting member of the mood. What yeah what. I believe it. Yeah and i get the facts that the gang back together again. We want all the people there. But john was barely in it then. Like what are you do like. I guess it way too much to the sun way to the sun and i think here's the other part of it too personally. They had like whatever seven different scripts over the last thirty years. I wanted to say. And i see the other six scripts like this is the one that you know what took a long time but now like i'm a little surprised. Cheer point but when you see it. And you're cautious about what to say. Owen gleiberman the great critic for entertainment weekly variety. He tells a story about. Ben affleck because you know africa if you meet him. He's a very charming disarming guy. But i had to be honest about his reviews so he goes. You know i'd meet him. We'd be talking to anybody and you really across daredevil. Aided julie on these guys are reading alflex credit he knew he enviros. Like i gotta do it man and he goes argo was made. I said ben. this is you. You're such a smart guy. You're a great director acting. You weren't getting good roles but funny it. Just imagine if you. And i meet eddie murphy. One day and he goes. I am so the sequel give. I'm slightly distracted because they just a tweet. That new york is officially now signed the bill. That will bring mobile sports betting to new york. So i wanna jump out of my chair and start celebrate. Fasching elicit bad beats you inventhelp. Besides godfather to is coming to america. What's the best sequel of all time. You can't say the godfather to us but to say because that is the correct answer. That's i think. I think part of strikes back is pretty good. You know. I think they actually did a really good job with that. In terms of trying to have the elements of the first one little bit darker and going to different direction. It's really hard especially with comedies. Like i find back. The future to actually think is reasonable. I don't think this as the first one. But i think it has good elements of science fiction and still elements of the love and the story. But it's oftentimes just focus on the negative ones like fletch lives. I guess is all right. Caddyshack to is memorably awful and it's a very short list. It's got further to empire strikes back back to churchill. That's about it. I'd give i'd give you a sequel. I liked but you'd probably hang up zoom too. I love it dancing on the ladder match. If that's your rationale jimmy. That i can accept it. Tried to describe the cinematography the storytelling like michelle pfeiffer amid. All you gotta look at me you look hold on rider. Oh my god that move on. Because i think it's roger ritz review. Shell pfeiffer in the fabulous baker boys it is. You got to look it up. I'm messing it up at the first couple of lines were michelle pfeiffer. Too tight red. Slinky dress dances on a piano. The rest of the movie is also quite good. It's one of the most famous. Roger would not get away with that review in twenty twenty one. That's for sure. Noah give me. I don't the oscars sunday. I don't care about what's nominated give you worth. Give me three movies in the past year. That anyone listening to this podcast needs to watch. I'm glad you said that. Because i get confused. People say the ostra sunday. What should i watch and i say okay. Do you want me to tell you what's going to wait. What i think is good. You think so sounded metal. I think is remarkable. You've got to see it i. It stars resign med. He's an incredible actor. Who's in the show the night of as you said tv. I'm sure you saw the. Hbo limited series. John detoro originally our boy gandolfini was going to do it. He passed away to recommend ras amazing. He plays a heavy metal drummer who suddenly loses his hearing. And i don't think there's a lot of great films about being hearing-impaired what that's like remarkable performance you know. He learned sign language. Got into that world. It's very very immersive. Since your comedy guy there's a great comedy called the combine. And i loved it and i interviewed the actor michelangelo casino who wrote directed and starred in it. This is gonna turn you off but bear with me. It's almost like a comedy done with the european sensibility. I don't mind that it's almost like this kind of french aesthetic to it. And it's got these incredibly long takes. We love goodfellas. The most famous tracking shot ever is of course the copa shot at eight or takes in this movie. I talked to the guys interviewed him in macau marvin. It was a minute shots. You don't see that. The comedy such exquisite attention to detail in terms of a long tracking shot they go. We wanted to stay in the frame and we felt it work the la times. Forget me la times call it possibly the greatest bromance movie of all time to check out the climate for comedy guy. I think you'll really enjoy that. And i also really liked palm springs. That was really good. Comedy with andy sandberg on hulu but i would go with nomad land. That's going to win. Best picture this weekend. Is the francis storm. I thought it was excellent high-quality the oscars. There's this thing out award shows where basically no one's watching them anymore. It's kinda crazy. And i don't know how i feel bad for them this year. I mean after what we've gone through the no movie theaters open. What's the situation movie. now have you been. have you gone to movie theaters and vaccinated or before i did. Yeah so what happened. Was i remember when everything fell apart. I said to my wife. This shows you sick i am. I getting into the theaters. What i said before covid. How often would you go to the theater. So i probably go like. Listen in my heyday. Pre kids me every week twice week three times a week. Now i would say probably with with kids and everything probably once a week maybe every other week so with screeners. It's a big help and you can sell. This is netflix hulu. Etcetera the studios will send you stuff. Once i got into the broadcast association. That was a game changer. Wants to send you stuff but as you know you'll get stuff during award so that's only generally speaking september december. So if i want to see movies tomorrow i go pay my fourteen dollars. The mc and parameters. And i go check it out north jersey so when everything was happening wife i get the going to do so the way back with ben affleck was the last pre pandemic. Didn't see a movie in theaters for four months which is a long. It's been forty years but once we're back to be saved again. I'm like you. I take it seriously at the mask on the whole time. I watched chris nolan's where we would to be honest. I waited four months movie. Would've liked to better. Fell in the was not one of crystal best films. But i'm still trying to go. I'll take my kids. Took missy crudes to i mean they love popcorn slushy all that kind of stuff but thankfully jersey. We've opened up. it'd be great you. i don't want to tell you what to do. But now he's got the monday night raw gig. It would be great if you back and reviewed some of the famous. There's a couple of famous wrestling documentaries. Beyond the yeah. Pardo's the bernhardt one. I've got something. Shadows sure. A movie the wrestler. I'm sure you watch. With mickey rourke would you think of that remarkable i remember. I saw that the toronto film festival. I saw it with my boss at the time and i just thought it was so brave in convincing and just immersive and movies like that they generally give you an out right at the end me. Some sort redemption but that marissa's thomann him at the back. I thought it was so powerful running when she says you know. I'm here i'm really here. He goes you see that. That's where i live. Like is his his only glorious when he finds his in. The ring emits incredibly despairing depressing but i thought it was really authentic. So sunday night. You'll watch the oscars monday night. You'll call raw. What a fascinating combination for someone. I must say people tell. What is this movies and sports. It must be some sort of fascination with escapism right. I must just be so miserable within my own skin. I go okay. I've got out of me and go look at the movies in the sports. But you're right. There's not many you can pull off that kind of and have you talked at all with pat mcafee. Because he's obviously coming into this now and it's sorta you guys you tour the newbies together. Yeah so pat. And i were together at the zone briefly and i was on his radio show a couple of times. He's great funny guy. I haven't reached yet. But i've been meaning to mutual friends of michael lombardi. Mike and i do the show together. Nfl podcast so i tweeted with each other back forth. How ridiculous is that. By the way in the past them nike. We tweeted with each other. We hope to have a conversation at some. Yeah that's pretty much goes i was. I don't know if you watch it. But he's he's such a natural show. I mean he's i watched a 'bout a half an hour and i thought he was really good really good. I mean if for his first time. And i think i talked about this edge. You said you listen to it. I think seventy two books in a big hockey guy. Yeah big hockey but i. I'm a believer. I don't know where the ww's e stances these days on. I'm a big believer that you need not a little. I think you need a lot of humor. On ron smackdown. I mean that's what got me into it. You know like you mentioned heenan. I remember watching prime-time which was sold show in the eighties. It's probably the grace wrestling. And i watched it. It would be relevant in about a heathen in studio and then they would cut to matches. I would be livid when they cut to the irony being gorilla so the humor for me is always. I've always like a guy like bill goldberg and brock listener. I have they do nothing for me. They don't talk. They're not you know the reason why the rock is like you know my favorite person of all time. Give me some humor. So i think will fit in very well do in that role. Yeah it's sports entertainment. I completely agree that if you're not having fun you're doing something wrong. You should feel like you're trying to sell the sizzle. It's not just hyperbole. But you have to be able to have that certain element of panache. I used to say that about espn. I says entertainment and sports programming network. You've got to have the l. Especially in today's world to be able to try to cut through the problem with that. I fine and i know you probably going back. you know. There's a whole other topic. But i personally. I think it's really really hard to do. Humor in sports. Yeah i would say ninety five percent of the time complete disaster. You were not a fan of dennis miller on monday night football. I mean that was so long ago. That i don't even really remember it. I probably would've liked it just from the train wreck aspect of it. Because i i'm down with that too. When when traditional sports companies try to be funny very very fine line there it gets. It depends is it live event or is it studio. I'm a guy. I'm more into the dry. I love impel. 'cause it's a dry humor. A lot of it is sort of like over the top or yeah obvious humor again. You know like growing like the jokes last tuesday night. Then everyone was outrage about the raiders. Tweet and people were like trying to like of course dunk on it and then try to be funny about it and it's like you're all saying the same thing you know hard to do sports humor. I think i knew the specialist with sports that are like it went from an era of everyone had a catchphrase of the nineties adored olbermann. obviously patrick. You know all those guys do rich eisen. And then i was there. It was almost like hey listen. You'll actually stand out if you don't do that if you're actually legit sports fan who's knowledgeable insightful that will do better for you than one liner every ten seconds. That's why i think guy. Like steve levy is so great leaves as a friend. I'm biased. But i just think he's been a great passionate broadcast. Yeah well. The one liners good. If they're if they're different you know and you know. I mean you could probably do. You could probably drop so many movie references into all night raw. It would be you know. I've i've done a handful so far. The people were keeping track of the million dollar baby. I heard make him an offer. You don't refuse a like i'll get. Hey now in next week for us. We'll get sanders. It'd be great not may now. We're hank i tell you. Thank god hank's night in the sun. I don't know if you watch that one again. But go back. He gets to fill in. For larry because he's sick. The greatest episodes every because he gets a big hattie's delusional. It gets raped by downsides. The roast is an amazing episode. Where larry's getting destroyed that season five. The book is a great episode season five. I hope anyone listening to this. Goes back and watch from the larry sanders show and sopranos favorite episode. I don't know actually. I'm going to say long term parking. Go ahead Mine is whitecaps white. So i know everyone says barron's that the scene in whitecaps with tony and carmela i think is the greatest thing i've ever seen on tv. When he punches the wall you know inception walls book. Which i'm sure you've read. It was great. read him and matt. Yeah yeah matt. Solar sites they refer to that and they go. That's like richard burton and elizabeth taylor. Who's afraid of virginia woolf man. But it'd be who's afraid of these two books like the italian version of that. It's just to a couple. just being afraid. Apart the rawness of this scene. I read about furio every night but there was a scene before that when she knows the stuff from the russian yeah. I've been sleeping it comes. She's throwing his stuff out the window. He comes home and they fight and she just breaks down those two scenes but pine barrens is just. I mean what can even say at this point about. Here's the way the best lift fighters interior decorator at an chris. Goes this house. Look like shit. Blew me away. When i had them on was i believe they said now. One word of sopranos was ever improvised every word written so even that scene in the van towards the end and they're eating ketchup. Yeah and holly says tight with the relish like someone wrote that line. You would think that's all you know. We're just two assholes in the woods just every word written in that episode which is which is really You know david chase. I don't know if you've ever talked to him but god he's got stories for days. I mean this background. Being italian like appreciate what he was going through all kinds of stuff. I related to way too much of that. Show way too much with this. The sopranos movie. Do you have high expectations. Or what are you a little bit concerned just because again as discussed with sequels calls this time separating it's hard to recapture that dna and somewhat to the show and i watched a lot during the pandemic like everyone else was the gandolfini fini was such an integral part of it. Now it's interesting chase said. Tom fontana whenever. I don't get upset people but the wire the wire what i tell you they go homicide life on. The street is the show that i love the baltimore cop. Show that david. Simon did before the wire. Tom fontana the guy who did that. You know him from saint elsewhere oz which is one of the great shows ever he said fontana gave 'cause he was like listen movie. Everyone's on my butts moving. He goes well actually do something about like junior when they were kids because that might be kind of interesting. And that's where to someone like david chase because okay that is new terrain. I develop that world. What i do find fascinating is at least in phoenix suns. Going to be in it. That's what was interesting. I mean that's scares me as it. Godfather guy just think godfather three and coppola like whenever you have family ties. Never sure it's gonna work hoping that kid looks like his dad has that the key is this. You've still got the principles involved. If david chase was not involved that what's different directions et cetera. Then i get worried. But if it's the same crew i hopefully it'll be alright. The many saints of newark good. Yeah i was so konica. Have movie without that cast. I don't know but i didn't do the top. I'm going to try doing now. Wrap up with all your jobs. Wwe monday night. Raw monday nights usa network. That's the big one right now. Mlb network nhl network zone which i always call dazzling but i'm trying to be respectful. I'm calling his own because you're on sinophile with adnan virk now. When does that go to the lead. Guitar is going to be sooner. They within a week or two. We're going to ever see me back back with john and dan and then gm shelf. Mike lombardi dude. You nailed time to do this. I give you my feedback. i've listened to somebody episodes. I get your email. But i sorted. Say what. I think. I appreciate it. I appreciate your listening and pre appreciate you more listening than coming on. I have to thank you for coming on as well here. Every episode say please subscribe review. That's like me like employing people. This is but you have to do it even like you'll do. The previous episodes says the same thing myself previous episodes including best. He was up last question for you is in said to you. This is before herb. He said because he had seen them all right. And there's one episode in particular. It's going to be a conic. Which one do you think he was referring to. I think he talked about. I think it was probably the the stupid hat. The america great again. 'cause you sit them there's gonna be trump joke for sure. Got predictive new tweet. See i told you. I call it. He said he was jimmy. I've seen all the episodes. There's one episode in particular. I think is going to be iconic like palestinian chicken type level. I don't know what episode this. Yeah because for me the episode with the magazine it was iconic and then there was the one where people to jeff was was. That was the best laugh of the year. Oh my gosh you son of a bit all at one thing now one thing. I'm a little disappointed. In kyle brandt from good morning football. Jeff garlan on his ringer podcast this week and just said they only do cove it stuff in the first episode of the new season. It's not like a whole season of covert which listen i. Don't blame them for not wanting to do a whole season of covid they wanna do. You know larry stick. Sure what the cove i think is just what he said is just i think in the first episode so he had high hopes for like larry like with the six feet apart in the dan. Sanitizer and the masks and the boy he resigned. There's an article in new york times. In which i think. Cheryl hines as some of the effect social distancing for years right great line even the pictures of sitting in the house waving this class. I was hoping for a whole season of covert occur. But we're not getting it but that's the way another underrated the most recent season i thought richard lewis who i just adore and i love his eighty thought lewis when he was doing flowers for algernon. That was one of the funniest things ever the look on my face and he starts laughing. When lewis does the impression amazing. Richard lewis has always been phenomenal on that god. All right take it easy and be careful with that announce table. You never know who's gonna come flying through the next night and you know that was the big thing. I was wondering all my friends. What did you take a steel chair across the back. I'm like well. I'm going to be talking about the yankees slump. That's not gonna look good. Forget this deal chair because that would be part of you. That's coming. I'm talking about you. Know they they throw the tv's. That's i've always wanted to do a thing about like i would love to how much money the. Wwe spend silva's monitors per year that thrown on. Someone's going through the table. It's an was watching the louis. Bugsy again last night i'm staying to the booth. Bugsy member Joe montana plays the actor he tells me to come visit him and he starts hitting guys. Hey benny you wanna hit someone. That's what i feel like. I like just do this once. Let me just try it eventually. It'll happen fingers crossed. Stay safe thanks for coming on. I appreciate it thank you jimmy appreciate take you my thanks to adnan virk for the very very fun. Conversation enjoyed it thoroughly. Hopefully you guys did too if you liked it give Subscribe to the podcast helps tremendously. And if you missed any recent episodes that you want to check out or if you knew it's listening to the podcast if you're gambling person be a firm last week to talk about a bunch of things related sports betting sports media columnist for the new york post andrew marsh in two weeks ago. Wwe superstar edge three weeks ago. Scott bam pub for weeks ago all recent interviews here on the media podcasts. So give him a listen. Subscribe rate and review again. Thanks virk thank you to think thanks to you for listening and we will see you next week. Right here on the media. Podcast they say and take.

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NFC North Betting Preview: NFL Best Bets! Trubisky vs Foles, Packers Down, Stafford MVP, Vikings Def

Bet The Board

57:38 min | 1 year ago

NFC North Betting Preview: NFL Best Bets! Trubisky vs Foles, Packers Down, Stafford MVP, Vikings Def

"Along. That thou board. Bet You twenty bucks. For the end of the year only fifteen grand how they? Pay Debts, men his money it's the. Board podcast. Really like. The and I WANNA be right back where I started I could still pick winners. Could still make money for all kinds of people back home and why mess up a good thing airs pain insider and todd. Into, the BET board podcast powered by Fox spent four season previews for the National Football League of already gone by the wayside. Hopefully, you've had a chance to listen to all those the NFC north the topic at hand today I am, of course, your host, Todd Furman join as always by my steam colleague coast the one who does the real heavy lifting around these parts the one the only pain inside halfway home baby. Oh. We got to have time. You get a few orange slices, maybe a juice box. What else do you kinda take at halftime of an NFL or? You've soccer game to try and make sure that you've finished with a flourish is either water gator thousand for me. I wasn't sure if you were one of the guys that tried to bring Little Gel capsules or anything else along those lines that people are clamoring over to your soccer back trying to pull stuff out I discovered five hour energy. After retirement. Judging. By the fact that you said, you can actually drink full five hour energy. I'd be worried about a seventeen year old paint playing high school soccer with full one of those in his system and what kind of damage you out there picking up your and potentially red cards I tried it for the first time because I had like a doubleheader flag football game years ago and I only took half a bottle as a maniac out there. And you know me I don't really drink much caffeine. So no you're. Fine. You're not a caffeine guy at all. I mean, you're quarter piece of dark chocolate as well. Documented to try and get the little pick me up when required throughout the course of football season. Hopefully, you're still able to sleep a few more than three and a half four hours a night at least until things get cranked up in early September it's been nice at seven or eight feel like a new human. Now. Let's let's hope that continues and you're able to keep that level of optimism throughout the course of the season like we sat four preview podcasts already done encourage those folks out there. That are just tuning in for the first time to check them out both the AFC NFC west alive and available about the board podcast Dot Com along with the AFC NFC east as we. Mentioned no today's topic. The NFC north. Then when you look at the odds to win the division right now I don't think it will come as any surprise at the Green Bay packers remained slight favorites at plus a dollar fifty Fox bet the Vikings right behind him that plus a dollar sixty, the bears shade less than four to one amid their quarterback controversy, which, of course. We'll get to in more detail and the Lions picking up the rear at eight to one the pain we may as well start with the monsters of the midway in the Chicago bears who see their win total posted at eight. You have to lay a slight price to go over when you look at Matt, Nagy First Two seasons as head coach twenty and twelfth definite improvement. For a bears franchise that when one, thousand, nine, hundred, forty, five off from two, thousand, fourteen to two, thousand, seventeen prior to his arrival. They have missed the postseason in eight of the last nine seasons. But when you look at this bears team I, think there's only one logical place to start and it's with your favorite starting quarterback in the entire national. Football. League. Mitchell trubisky. Going to be the kicker. Are, we can serve it to Kim here I mean. They're former another former kicker came out and had some interesting comments today Robbie Gould talking about how not having fans in the stadium is going to impact the wind and how he goes through his pre kick routine. But that made me completely different discussion for different day. Hey we know kickers wired differently a lot like goalies they are. What are we? Talking about here trubisky and Foles trubisky and falls I feel that the most logical place to start with the Chicago bears knowing how inept their offense was pretty much the entire season last year in March. When Chicago traded for Foles I thought this was a slam don't new starting quarterback. You'll give up a fourth rounder and then have Jacksonville absorb zero dollars. From the contract if you're not going to start him especially when you look at who is out there, you had guys like Cam in Winston in and that could have been had for less money and no draft capital. We know full familiarity with the offense. He Nagy spent a year together and phillies spend another one together in Kansas City they brought in. quarterback coach John De. Filippo. He spent time with Foale's for multiple seasons in Philly and then last Jacksonville they added Bill. Laser. As the OC who spent a year with falls in Philly with all that said, I, am hearing Mrs truly a fifty fifty battle right now is reading an article this morning that's at Bill Laser passing game coordinator and Endeavour Goan. Their scripting each practice. So Mitch and foles are literally alternating plays, but they're the same place. So you can tell who's doing better equal number of first team and second team reps for each in my mind I know we had this debate via text if you start trubisky and he's not good, there's no harm. He'll never start again unless there's an injury good riddance forever. But if you start foles, it's almost impossible to go back to your bisky without crushing his confidence I truly believe that last week Jj Stankevich and I probably butchered his name apologies he's a bears beat writer. And he thinks trubisky is going to be the week one starter against Detroit, and that's from a guy that thought foles was going easily be the starter a couple of months back. You'll up the IPAD practices are going on this week Chicago only has fifteen total padded practices from now until week one, I'm here and they're going to have to live scrimmages before September third to help with this decision. But then I listened to Matt Nagy interview this past weekend and take this for what it's worth. He mentioned Nick before Mitch every single time he was asked an open ended quarterback question. So bottom line, we're GONNA have a lot of uncertainty here with this bears offense until a starters officially named let's go through some of these bears offensive metrics for Messina go. This is a team scored twenty five points in a grand total of. Three games last season fewer such games amongst all NFC teams, they ranked twenty ninth in total offense in two, thousand, nineteen, they were one of just five teams average less than three hundred yards per game thirty first in yards per play at four point seven, and here are some Mitchell trubisky numbers the reason I bring this up because pain you drew a ton of heat last year coming in, we did the preview podcast of the NFC. North from bears fancying all the guy's GonNa continue to take the next step. What did he do? We said he was going to bottom out among twenty eight quarterbacks to start ten plus games. Last season, he ranked bottom five in passing yards per game shade more than two hundred passing touchdowns at seventeen passer rating with an eighty-three and passing yards per attempt at six point one I mean this guy didn't use his legs at all and I understand some of it is because of the weapons which I know we're GONNA get into but Mitchell trubisky you mentioned him having a short leash can bears on either side of the ball fans management what have you have any level of confidence that this I can go out there and somehow make a massive leap in what will be now is what fourth or fifth year in the League it's tough but whether it's fulls or trubisky. Or both at different times they're both GONNA need help. Neither of these guys is elite you're GONNA need an efficient system a good game plan. Calling on offense of line that protects in ground game that somewhat functional embarrassed fans know that hasn't been the case in recent seasons. They're gonNA need help whoever it is the bears offensive line just hasn't been good. They haven't created holes or prevent pressure trubisky look last year you mentioned all down metrics but he faced more pressure than he did in two thousand eighteen and he handled it horrifically passer rating dip twenty, three points year over year when under pressure now, part of the reason why he didn't run as. Much as he had the dislocated shoulder portion, this season I think that limited his mobility some but overall whether it was mitch or Chase Daniel the pressure rate allowed increased three percent in two thousand, nineteen o line went from very bad to even worse creating room for running backs and you combine that bears line that was twenty eighth and adjusted line yards with a rookie and David. Montgomery. He wasn't very good sixtieth in the NFL. EPA per rush attempt end. You See why? The bear struggle the run. Few remember David Montgomery. He made his living at Iowa state making guys miss or or Rag dowling them by breaking tackles this the NFL like defensive coordinators won't play guys that can't tackle. So if you look at Montgomery that was the one thing we questioned last year was the forty time four, six, three at the combine. He relies on making guys miss breaking tackles problem is he was thirty third and elusiveness among running backs with at least one hundred touches forty third in yards after contact among back with a hundred or more rush attempts he struggled this is a passing league. We get that we talk about it we preach it but the one spot will continue to hammer home is that you need to be able to run in the red zone Chicago was able to do that twenty seven rushing success rate in the Red Zone I think Matt Nagy. Is Cognizant of everything? I'm saying here because if you read between the lines Cordell Patterson's going to be probably running back this season, he's working in the running backs group not the receivers group. It tells me Matt. Nagy. Isn't thrilled with Montgomery because to me Cohen serves as the speed, the gadget, the third down guy. I get Patterson's a game-breaker, but if he's taking snaps away from anyone, it's probably Montgomery some of the other weapons. I think they're lacking outside of Allen. Robinson so much. So you see matinee trying to get safety Jackson into the mix at receiver for an occasional series, which is wild, but it makes sense Allen Robinson responsible for thirty nine percent of the bears air yards. Last season fourth most in the NFL only trailed Portland sought and Michael. Thomas. Digs in that category they go out in the off season they had ted Ginn. Junior and his family pair Allen Robinson he's thirty five and a speed guy. So you don't know how that combination is going to mix cold weather city hamstrings things like that tend to tend to be an issue last two seasons though thirty seven percent or more of his targets came twenty or more yards down the field. So hopefully, GIN has enough burst at thirty five to provide some room for the bears offense listening. To Matt Nagy and seeing Jimmy Graham end drafting coal commit forty third overall I. Think we see in uptick in two tight end sets. We Know Philadelphia's been successful twelve personnel. Andy Reid likes using in Kansas City as well. So it doesn't shock me someone that's coach both places in is an Andy Reid disciple wants to increase twelfth. So Cole combat has the playbook down Pat I'm told Jamie? Graham. Has Gone the. Extra Mile Mentoring him able to get my hands on zoom meeting and Matt Nagy was was trying to like stump coca met here and he just couldn't. So I think he becomes a year one contributor not a bad thing if Cole and Jimmy are playing simultaneously I think the Jimmy deals terrible but getting them going simultaneously helps because the bears had a fifty five percent success rate when throwing from twelve personnel last season. The final thing you're taught the schedule of defense bears play we project out to be bottom ten in the NFL bottom five schedule of defenses in terms of yards per play out bottom five schedule of Red Zone defense is. So whichever quarterback gets the nod they're going to have a favorable schedule defense to go against. One player I want to ask you about pain because doing some reading the bear seemed to be a rather optimistic whether it's truthful honesty or they just have no other place to look is regarding the capabilities of Anthony Miller. Last season, he averaged over twelve yards per catch on fifty two receptions just had two touchdowns returning from shoulder surgery. But what do you make of him? Do you feel that he becomes the x factor of this bears passing game is really going. To click absolutely and when it comes to football, your greatest ability is availability and he hasn't been able to prove that when he's out on the field, he's been fantastic and just another added wrinkle I was listening to Anthony Miller, as well on his presser. He constantly mentions Nick foles and how he's been able to help him learn this new offense even more even though he's been there a couple years, which is interesting. So Anthony. Miller definitely needs a big season uses healthier. It's always a good way to get started. You can't put up numbers if you're not actually available for game time like he talked about. Making sure that you're ready to be out there in the team's GonNa call on you as far as this bears defense last year I think a lot of people weren't thrilled with some of their numbers but when you dig into it, it wasn't bad from a points per game standpoint or anything else. I mean, the bears finished last year fourth in the NFL allowing eighteen and a half points per game down just a touch from the season before they forced fifty five takeaways over the last few seasons, which is good enough for third in the NFL but the. Big Difference and you talk about it all the time is creating those havoc place. The bears average one less turnover per game in two thousand and they did in two thousand eighteen. So it wasn't the yards that were a problem it was they couldn't get after the quarterback they couldn't create your fields and when you have a quarterback like Mitchell trubisky, you're not able to go on no seventy five yard marches. How do we begin to evaluate and great out? This bears defense in terms of what kind of expectations we should have for them going into twenty twenty. To. Your point. That's exactly why this was one of the easiest teams peg for regression last year. Not just because of trubisky's underlying metrics which we covered, who because the defense. It was impossible to replicate thirty six takeaways. They downgraded defensive coordinator, the schedule of offense as they faced toughest in the NFL, and then you had some key cogs that mistime Akiem Hicks played five games. We've raised about his ability to sell stop the run in the five Games Hicks played last season bears forty, three percent of runs degrade successful that was. Five percent better than league average in the eleven games he missed the bears were below average. In that category Danny Trevathan played nine Games Roquan Smith, missed four games. Khalil Mack had his worst season as a pro in terms of total pressures and tackles for losses. So there you go those havoc blazers weren't happening that all said Chicago somehow managed to finish eighth. In defensive efficiency in six in yards per play allowed this season Eddie Goldman goes to opt out tough loss. They're hoping belong Nichols steps up in Hicks healthy. Robertson Harrison is in a contract year. I. Think he'll help fill that void a little bit. We know about the addition of Robert Quinn on the outside that's to me and I said this back in. March the biggest feast or famine signing this off season I wouldn't have signed him to that deal but the metrics indicate he was worth. He's had back to back seasons where in two thousand Eighteen Quinn finished number one in pass rush win rate and in two thousand, nineteen, hundred finish top ten among defensive ends with at least three hundred pass rush naps NPR. The question Mark on defense dot is the secondary eights important that Eddie Jackson Kyle Fuller get back to the two thousand eighteen form both had down years in coverage dion. Bush is likely to be the other starting safety Jalen, Johnson the second round pick from Utah I think it's playing time early had some size questions which dropped into the second round, but he a lot of fifty passer rating entire career when targeted at Utah Buster screen is an absolute liability and covering the slot he had up here coverage. Still. Add one three passer rating when targeted. So that should tell you all you need to know. Not. A ton of overwhelming depth or talent at corner. The bears I think front seven has dominate because if they can't get pressure and disrupt opposing offenses, it's going to be tough on the secondary Chicago's projected face a top three schedule of passing offenses this season so that secondary is going to be the key to the bears defense. Interesting team we know so much Takagi wants to do is predicated on their ability get stops, force turnovers. You mentioned regression was inevitable that you can't always rely on your stop unit to create short field and obviously in this day and age the one area of the team that you don't want to have question marks is about your pass rush and of course, in the back end knowing it's a passing league. So we'll keep tabs on the bears this season. See if the offense can continue to move forward and the defense can hold up their end of the bargain with. The next team in the division pain hold on before we close up shop wander make sure there wasn't anything else. You wanted to add to the bears before we move on. No, I didn't plan on it but now you know who guess since we have the Intel might as well divulge it under eight and a half was very sharp I didn't personally bet it but I know a group that did in that's why you alluded to at the top it's it's now eight but you can shop around there still some eight and a half out there if you need to Degen out or you need action. That we got plenty of listeners that may fall into that camp despite our best pleased to try and teach discipline over the years. We know that they're craving football with a couple of weeks away at least they can have formed opinion if they walked to the window with an additional win total the Detroit lions though, of course, get the services of Matthew Stafford back when you look at their win total at sits at six and a half shaded to the over. This team finished last in the north, but they've had seven wins at were more in six out of the last nine seasons twelve sixteen games. Last season, we're decided by one possession tied with the seahawks for most such games in the NFL the difference being the lions compiled a record of three eight and one in those twelve contests. Now, they have had fewer than seven wins, Bowl seasons on your Matt Patricia Nine Twenty, two and one win percentage below thirty percent. Fewer than ten wins over the last two seasons, which puts you in such company as the Arizona Cardinals Cincinnati bengals and the New York giants I can keep going here with a home record of five and eleven over the last two seasons. But let's go glass half full because that's the kind of team that we are paying. When you look at this lions offense and you know you get Matthew Stafford back we saw strides he made with Daryl bevill. There can we expect this group to be one of the more unheralded units in the entire league? This season extremely optimistic about Detroit's offense and toying twenty we saw overall improvement officiency a season ago and Stafford only played eight games. So you're really projecting how much more can Detroit's offense improve with a full season of Stafford and the first thing we saw from Daryl Bevo was an extremely aggressive play caller everyone thought devil was as run first guy but. He was under Pete Carroll in Seattle. That's where the reputation game from. What we know one hundred percent certainty though is with several Mattie staffer became more aggressive Stafford with having MVP season before the injury. The offense look drastically different with more I down passing deeper I down passing twenty five percent increase year over year with. In deep pass rate on first down, we saw Stafford's intended air yards increased three point, seven yards an attempt. Last Season Stafford led the NFL with ten point seven per pass attempt. In, two, thousand, Eighteen Stafford only average more intended air yards than Derek Carr in Blake Bortles Bortles is these days still backup quarterback. I think he's a backup summer, but you're GonNa have me start poking around right now so while you continue on the Matthew Stafford Search I'm going to go poke around for Bortles and see we can find. Even on third down staffer was aggressively through past the first down marker on average more than any other quarterback. The game scripts from Darrow Bebel were extremely aggressive. Had No problem letting stafford aired out early trying to smartly bill elite first nine weeks when Stafford was healthy Detroit was number one in first quarter passing success rate. Where Stafford. You know even kick things up a notch further. When things didn't go according to plan and he had to improvise stafford at an eighty four passer rating under pressure. But his aggression was still extreme thirty. One percent of Stafford's pressured throws into tight windows meaning where was the defender within a yard of the reception made right was there guy there within a yard. So the level of difficulty was twofold staffer dealt with pressure and thirty eight percent dropbox. officiant throws into tiny windows with the heat on. On, the other sixty, two percent of Stafford passes when his offensive line actually kept them clean use a second best quarterback, the first nine weeks. So you can question Stafford's ability as a winner to a certain degree, but you can't dispute the arm talent and I can tell you many sharp guys believe Detroit is one of the worst franchise is in the NFL and if it worked for Stafford, we would see that Stafford's forty one in fourteen when the lines give up no more than twenty points and that's Just. Repeat that stat perfect because that's incredible. Can You repeat that? Yes. Stafford is forty one in fourteen when the lions give up no more than twenty points. And you think about this organizationally, right this is the same organization that forced Barry Sanders early retirement it forced. Calvin. Johnson into early retirement. He still hasn't spoken to the organization sense. But you get back to twenty twenty. I think Stafford's poised for another solid season especially with some of these parts around him. Well you mentioned the parts and I think that's a great segue when you talk about the lions and some of their inability to run the football over the last couple years carrying. Johnson. Is the only running back to where Detroit lions colors to over one hundred yards in the last ninety, six games that this team has played as a franchise. Obviously, they go out and they address the running back depth questioned bringing in Andrea Swift, and we think can be a game-breaker coming out of Georgia and then Darryl bevelled had such strong praise for Kenny Golladay this off season basically saying that Golladay should be in the same class or perceived as such deandre Hopkins and Michael Thomas, and when you look at the numbers, Golladay put forth a year ago sixty catches almost twelve hundred yards and eleven touchdowns he's on the cusp of getting A. Monstrous payday as well. Do the lions have the weapons that Stafford needs to go out there put forth some of the numbers that he was on pace to do before he was sidelined with that hip and back injury. So let's talk about up front I because I think there's some questions about Detroit's offensive line. The left side remains intact would Taylor Decker Joe Doll and you have senator frank now decker and above average left tackle dollars fantastic as a pass blocker struggles to move people in the ground game rag now is the anchor. Obviously, the right side online is what was remade. You signed big V from Philly to become a full time starter. Very good. He flashes excellent as a run blocker but isn't nearly polished in pass protection. It looks like rookie Jona Jackson Ohio state could be the day one right guard really excelled as a pass blocker for the buckeyes. If you listen the Darrell Bevill, he is praised him for his nastiness and overall bevill. Thanks the the two young guys they drafted on the interior line have really helped the mindset of the overall room, the offensive line, which is interesting. The hear from two young guys. They're both nasty now the. Weapons and you mentioned Golladay. It's a trio. It's a really good trio between Golladay Jones Amendola. I think it's the best in the division. When you assess one through three days in a contract year, we typically know what that means. Now, there is a little noise, a little narrative, but he's GonNa get paid. He had thirty four percent of the Lions air yards last season twelve most of the NFL Marvin Jones sure handed eleventh best dropout rate among receivers with at least sixty receptions. He's an absolute beast running intermediate routes. Now, he's playing with a heavy heart had the passing of a young child. So we want to monitor that situation throughout the season a little bit Danny Amendola Perfect Slot Guy for this offense ran seventy-seven percent routes from the slot. Last season we know how precise of route runner he is if you look at player tracking data. It indicates Amendola was open on seventy four percent of targets fourth-best in the entirely last year. I really wish there was a preseason so I could see TJ Hodkinson move around a little bit after that gruesome ankle injury. Thanksgiving. I can tell you the lines worked out too tight ends off the street. This past week I hope that's nothing Hopkinson released a facebook video which was highly edited, but it looked like he was at least moving around fine and that's important because Hopkinson doesn't offer much to blocker I know he put on some weight this off season but. Feel look at tight ends on the field for two hundred plus passing snaps last season Hopkinson had the second worst pass blocking efficiency rating. So he's got to contribute as a pass catcher. You mentioned the Andrea. Swift. They go out adamant round to they're comparing him already to Alvin Kamara in Quintas sees our boy from Wisconsin there has had strong showings the first week of Camp Bullshit carve-out roles in year one day Andrea Swift probably a little bit more we know carry on Johnson is still there but it hasn't shown an ability stay healthy. So there's a lot of new weapons to this offense todd that I really like That's a good thing because when you look at this team on the defensive side of the ball, the offense meaning to scored thirty game to try and improve Matthew Stafford's career winning percentage, you look at Detroit a season ago pain nail out a whopping six, thousand, four, hundred, six yards, just shy of the franchise record that they set during a team's winless season back in two, thousand, eight, they finished twenty six in scoring defense type twenty-ninth in sacks only two teams in the League actually blitz less tied for the fewest interceptions. In the League ranked thirty first in the NFL in yards per game allowed lasted passing yards allowed in two thousand and nineteen, and when you look at the Lions the secondary in my opinion can't get better after you deal Qadri digs in the middle last season, your tree Darius slate of Philadelphia and we'll everybody seems to be excited about Jeffrey Khuda being a day one starter. We're still talking about a guy making a transition from big ten football that we've talked about isn't exactly the past happiest league in the entire country. Along with some of the other familiar faces that map attrition company no from their previous Stop New England a where do we begin to start handicapping the effectiveness or lack thereof of this line stop unit So Matt Patricia is on the hot seat and it's partly because what we always talk about. Todd. If, the identity of the head coach is the weak link of the team. What's that say about your leader in head coach? And if you look Patricia first season, Detroit's defense regressed from nineteenth without him to twenty-seventh with them and efficiency. Last off. He goes out signs trey flowers to a monster deal inks. Justin Coleman. As at the time the highest paid slot Corner Detroit regresses again to twenty eight and defensive efficiency and if you remember Jim Caldwell was fired for going nine and seven, two, thousand, seventeen. So I'm not sure what Saves Patricia, job honestly. The, lions you alluded to dying for pass rush. Detroit. Finish dead last in pass rush. Win Rate Twenty, nine, pressure eight. This is on Patricia to figure out how to scheme up pressure through stunts and blitzes similar to his mentor ballot check new. England has always been about this manufactured pressure, yet you look at Patricia only blitzed eighteen percent of the time last year. So very odd Patricia did bring a new defensive coordinator in Corey Onlin. He's been with the Eagles as a secondary coach since two thousand fifteen. So I'm not sure what kind of endorsement that is. But on the positive side, Detroit's defense is projected face an easier schedule of offenses from top ten last year in difficulty to below average this season more importantly a schedule pass blocking offenses we project to be bottom five. So maybe Detroit as an easier time creating pressure against lightened schedule Lines Julian. Cora needs to contribute as a situational pass rusher. I'm here and they're gonNA use him as a pass rush. Jack. Linebacker early on maybe Jared Davis can contribute more as a pass rusher from the from the linebacker position. He's in a contract year. It's clear. He knows it came into. Camp last season at two, twenty, seven and fourteen percent body fat this year to forty eight in nine percent body fat. so He's been working. We've talked about some of the players that were brought in during the off season podcasts that are probably worth visiting again quickly, the Doron harmon acquisition has been the leash talked about major impact move the entire offseason. He was the best cover safety in the NFL season allowed to thirty three passer rating on over four hundred coverage snaps allowed zero point one, three yards per outrun number one in the NFL among qualifying safeties desma true on. Quality Corner. He's had some down years there in age, but his man style fits producers game perfectly same with the Khuda he's going to be thrown into the fires. You'll lose day one starter tasked with shutting down number one receivers. It's a tall task, but he's also best in man coverage to that fits. Well, you put a bow tie in Detroit to me this team's fascinating. You'd dig in and the amount of things I uncovered I could literally go on for four hours honestly but think about this through thirteen weeks last season only two teams led at some point in the second half of every single game, it was mahomes in the chiefs. And this lions team and I believe you said at the top Detroit went three eight and one over those thirteen weeks. They. Just have to close games out better and you combine that with the fact that Detroit? was below. Average and fumble twenty fifth in turnover differential twenty-fourth an injury luck really does well for a big bounce back year from Detroit. I envision their win total closing seven and not the six and a half words. It's right now a man giving hope to people in the motor city that this lions team won't continue to be some of the bumbling idiots. That we see over the last handful of years given some of the playmakers, an offense and a defense that quite frankly can't get worse than what we saw weaking week out last year, which I think provides ample runway as we get into the Green Bay packers a team that my disdain for for the better part of last season was well documented on social. Media packers fans continue to flood feed saying, Oh, I just hate this team this that and the other I'm not going to take anything away from what Green Bay -CCOMPLISH they got to the NFC championship before they were absolutely drum by the forty niners and when you look at his packers team, their win total sits at nine now with the good comes bad. And this was a green bay side that was actually outgained one hundred fourteen yards last season the first team to win thirteen plus games yet outgained on the year since two thousand eleven, which ironically enough also happen to be the Green Bay packers. They were one of two teams to go undefeated versus their own division. Last season right alongside the Kansas City chiefs. Record Oh in one position games of any team last season at eight and one they were fourteen to last season against teams not named the forty niners. They've won the division in six out of the last nine seasons but with green bay pain I think the biggest question the marriage between matlock floor and Aaron Rodgers can the two of them coexist and allow the packers to repeat as division champions I. Thought we were going to start but before we cover rogers and Leflore in that relationship in the packers offense. You hit it right on the head at the top at its core Green Bay is the number one progression candidate for twenty. Twenty. When you look at their Pie tag, the number of the packers were expected to win. Last year was eight point, six games they won thirteen. It's rare that a team not changing it's vital parts improves from six and ten to thirteen and three without luck. A seven win increase is absolutely ridiculous especially because we're not talking about a team that you know dealt with injuries the year before in were two and fourteen, and then improve seven wins. If you look the two thousand, eighteen packers in the two thousand, nineteen packers played the same number of. One score games ten difference was Green Bay one three of them in two, thousand, eighteen but one nine, one score games in two thousand, nineteen. If you dig into the historic numbers, how teams that improved year-over-year at the rate Green Bay did in two, thousand, nineteen, they harshly zapped back into reality the following season pass that when you dig into the offense from a higher level where most of the contention I think lies with with Rogers, in the floor isn't just because green. Bay drafted Jordan love instead of adding weapons to help Green Bay when now. But Rogers is an idiot he sees the transformation of the packers offense. Rogers was relied on less last season simple as that the pass rate was down eight percent year over year leflore. made it clear Rogers wasn't as valuable to his offense Green Bay passed at the second highest rate in two thousand, eighteen, they passed the fifteenth highest rate in two thousand nineteen in some we'll say sure because Green Bay was winning more than need to pass as much. But if you look at neutral game situations, the amount green bay pass in one score games league average. When Green did pass La- floors up Rogers. RPO. Usage but Rogers was dead last among qualifying quarterbacks when using rpo yet leflore more than doubled the amount of times rogers pass from Rpo year-over-year Rogers. Didn't like that. Now we have clear regression play. We have a team running more when we know passing equates to winning at a four times clip when Green Bay does pass. They're doing it in a manner that is less successful. There's possible contention between quarterback coach an element we introduced the world last year, todd? was how Matla Floridian shown ability to adapt or just past his opening quarter script. The packers offense wasn't good in the first quarter of games. The packers were fourth in passing success rates seventh in explosive pass rate. Last season Leflore did a very good job. Give him credit for this crafting scripts that were aggressive the first few possessions. But once the scripture off in the forehead to counter the opposing defenses adjustments, he couldn't the packers offense stunk when you think about the caliber of quarterback, it has green bay was nineteenth in passing success rate twenty, four, th and explosive pass rate from the second quarter on last season and when you look at how Rogers in the packers offense did in the second meeting against division. Rivals because you touched on at the top, they were six. No last year Green Bay was nearly one yard per play worse and Rogers Passer Rating Dip Twenty points in the second meeting. So the second time division opponents offense there was there's a decline in production. I. Think that further indicates inability an inability rather that he couldn't adapt adjust when you look ahead and project twenty twenty. You wonder now that everyone's seen the floors offense, will we see regression especially against division opponents add to the fact that scheduled defense is Green Bay played last year was twentieth inefficiency and we're projecting top ten schedule this season. I think regressions imminent man. Well and I think one of the things interesting speaking about the floor in his inability to try in creek game plans that were effective after the first quarter although one of his comments that I read I can't remember where it was pretty telling this off season. He said his plan all along after his first season in Green Bay that he wanted to institute some UPTEMPO schemes. This year allow Rogers to get in and out of the huddle a lot quicker and more effectively than what they were able to do the first season under his offense. He said quite frankly that's all been made more difficult and they've had a scrap a lot of those elements because they couldn't implemented through Ota's, and those are the kinds of things that you can't do over zoom. That doesn't bode well in my opinion for floor evolving as a play caller and getting the most out of Aaron Rodgers who's going to hopefully as a packer fan, you would think play pissed off knowing Jordan. Love is waiting in the wings to be heir apparent that last part interesting. I'm not sure when we see Jordan love take shape here I know Aaron Rodgers came out and said, Hey, I want to finish my career here but it will be. Interesting. But yeah, that's a hindrance to this offense if they were trying to implement new things and haven't had the time, that's the difference between running and passing teams know we'll touch on that I. think a little further down in the show. But overall like I'm just not a Matt Leflore guy we talked about this and I think I tweeted out at the time that somehow he gets this job promotion after leading Tennessee to the twenty second most efficient offense. I. Didn't love the higher even little things you see matlock floor is like raving about Aj Dylan as expected. Right? It's his guy he wanted me drafted him. He tried to implement more no matter how good is to me? It's tough to use draft capital that the sixty second pick had on a position wherein Jones has been an absolute stud. So even little things like that you will get Jones rookie year finished thirty one percent better than an average back lashed in two thousand, eighteen, seventeen percent better last your twelve percent better he's in a league back that can both run and catch. So taking carries away from him isn't smart either we've been yelling I think for three years. Aaron Jones, need the ball more. He's a guy that you don't want to limit his touches because last year over five yards per touch nine point seven yards per catch I pray Jones. Isn't phased out of the offense even the slightest bit. But again, this is Matt Leflore, he wants to do what he wants to do whether it's scheme style or the players he's introducing again everything really points to. Regression here. Well, let's get it out there. If we're having a world's strongest man competition, we do want Aj Dylan on our side because I'm convinced pain that he'd be able to squat a couple of VW bugs on either side of him. Some showgirls dude looks like he's been doing nothing but lifting legs and doing squats and leg presses the entire offseason those things are absolute treetrunks for some of the. Pictures that went viral. But you mentioned Aaron Jones and one thousand plus yards last season tied Christian McCaffrey with nineteen touchdowns. But I. Think when you look at Green Bay. The big question that all of us have is the receiving core devante. Adams shirt. He's great eighty-three catches hundred twenty seven targets a shade less than a thousand yards. The next closest receiver was the aforementioned Aaron Jones a you highlighted. WHO's capable of stepping up to be that number two they went out to get Devin funchess to help with some depth he of course, ops out, I think you and I were both big fans of Allen Lazard at Iowa state but I'm not quite sure I'm willing to make the claim that he's a bona fide number two receiver in his second season in green bay he's not Aaron. Rodgers loves him. He runs precise routes. He's got a big catch radius in. So Aaron Rodgers has fallen in love with Allen Lazard. Let's see if that relationship continues to progress. We know mvs. Markey's fall dismantling can blow the top off a defense but we're looking for him to take that next step. He hasn't quite proven to be that consistent down the field threat. So he's going to have to step up. There are a lot of options here and I. think that's again why Aaron Rodgers so pissed off what could you have done with the first two picks? What could players could you have had to contribute to a win now mode rather than drafting a backup quarterback and a backup running back they really didn't upgrade this offense because all you did was draft backups and I think that comes to fruition this season you're gonna see this offense probably takes another dip down specially if Matt Leflore isn't capable of adapting and adjusting his offense. They didn't upgrade the offense. They sure didn't do a whole heck of a lot on the other side of the ball either this past off season compared to what they did a season ago. Sure. The packers, a top ten scoring defense last season and the secondary might be one of the League's more underrated unit. I'm sure you'll hit on but the last time we saw Green Bay defensively San Francisco ran for nearly three hundred yards in the NFC championship. Jimmy. Garoppolo through eight passes. Total and that particular contest hours Blake Martinez headed to the giants Christian Kirksey comes in. But when you look at the stop unit pain, I mean, are they going to be any better against the run I? Mean they're so undersized on the defensive line and while Kenny Clarke, can be a low. That's the reason they gave him a seventy million dollar extension this off season I just don't have a whole lot of confidence. This packers defense can continue to head in the right direction. Last year, they spent their money. The Smith brothers cost an absolute fortune free agency. It did pay dividends. Your one Green Bay was ninth in Pass Rush Win rate is area Smith led all defenders with ninety three pressures, Preston Smith, top twenty, five, and pressures. Mike Patton was able to pair those guys with Kenny. Clarke. As you mentioned, assign a monster deal. Third among interior linemen with fifty to pressure. So these three guys along with Alexander and your ammos or y Green Bay went from twenty nine, th the Fifteenth and defensive efficiency over here woods interesting though as great as the big three upfront was Green Bay was just twentieth as team in pressurized. So there's a lot of high end talent on the packers defense, but it's about plug in some of their holes when I really dove into the packers defense. It's a weird unit man great in some areas, but my God they are. pissed porn a lot of areas play action killed the packers defense especially in terms of getting to the quarterback pre snap motion was the death of the packers defense despite playing dime at the highest clip in the NFL meeting one linebacker six defensive backs on the field green. Bay was below average defending passes between the numbers. The passer rating loud in the middle of the field on short to intermediate throws six points below league average with the Smith brothers and Kenny Clarke. They are just so focused on pressure todd, but to your point. If, you can't get after the quarterback and you're just gung ho about getting after the quarterback. What is that doing to your run fits Green Bay was horrific stopping the dead last in the NFL of fifty five percent of runs to great successful. That was against the twenty fifth toughest schedule of run offense couldn't stop outside zone runs. You'd think with six defensive backs on the field to that, it'd be tough to get beat deep for Big Place Agreement was twenty first in explosive pass defense in totality. This was a defense that couldn't stop the run that gave up some big plays opponents ran one thousand, one, hundred, six plays on the packers defense season nearly eleven percent of them ended with an explosive play. When you try and project ahead to twenty twenty, the quarterbacks that they're gonNA face. This year are tougher from weeks to through nine Green Bay Faces Stafford Brees Matt Ryan you have Tom Brady Watson cousins, Jimmy G. When you look at the entire schedule. Garner. Menchu is really the only week quarterback that Green Bay plays last year the packers faced Kyle Allen. David Blau trubisky twice played two rookie quarterbacks as I said at the top number one regression candy in the NFL Green Bay. This was one of to win totals were groups are eager to get their money down despite everything that's gone on this off season, and we've we've hit on this to the first four bod gas like. Lot better aren't going to tie up their capital on season-long bets. You need a larger edge there, but even in this kind of off season that that stances even stronger. But we saw under nine and a half minus one forty at open get hit. It's why we're down to about eight point six right now and you factor in the juice well, and this is the team where you talk about a regression candidate attack she the favorites to win the division the team right behind them has a lot of new faces they're going to have break. In the form of the Minnesota Vikings who see their win total at nine shaded slightly to the over this is the Vikings Franchise is produced ten plus wins in three out of the last five seasons they've gone five hundred or better in five straight seasons. The second longest active streak in the NFC bind only the seahawks you look at the record they've compiled the last three seasons thirty, one sixteen and one six best record in the NFL and third best in the NFC by only the saints in Rams an average margin of victory pain last year. Of. More than two touchdowns per game was six highest in the NFL eight wins by ten plus points only the Ravens had more but they were still two and four against their division. You look at some of the staggering numbers, their leaves, you scratching your head a bit. They underperformed in one possession games after going eight four and one in those type of contests from two, thousand, seventeen to two, thousand eighteen, and this is a franchise that's never been able to handle prosperity the last four times immediately following a playoff appearance, the vikings have averaged seven. Wins a season and have ultimately gone under their projected win toil. When we look at this team right now, offensive continuity may not be working in their favor. We know kirk cousins readjusted his deal, and of course, he has Adam feeling but you don't have your offensive coordinator. You don't have defined digs. What do we make of the Vikings on the offensive side of the ball before we get into the change of faces on the defensive side? stylistically, I don't think much changes for the Vikings Offense Kubiak was their last season helping transform Minnesota's offense with Stefanski. Alert. Here because I don't think Minnesota leads went on offense at the seventh ties clip like last season. I assume the Vikings pass rate increases along with the usage of three wide receiver sets. The question I have is, can the ridiculous efficiency continue kirk cousins had a career. The Vikings offense was shockingly good. Top Ten in passing efficiency top ten in passing success rate top ten in yards per pass attempt top ten in passing EPA top ten in explosive pass rate. But if we envision the pass rate increasing out of necessity due to game flow. And more receivers are needed on the field. It could spell trouble without digs. As great as Adam feeling is, and if I had the choice just based on other factors, you know in the locker room off the field I'm probably taking. Adam feeling. But digs was much better. Last year, he was responsible for forty one percent of the Vikings air yards digs averaged two point, seven yards per outrun. Only trailed Michael Thomas in that category. So this is a massive loss for team that relies on efficiency over volume in the past game. What the Vikings will try in dictate will be nearly I think identical to last season lots of two tight end sets maybe even more thirteen personnel, you have the zone run scheme especially inside zone, the Vikings had a fifty eight percent success rate on those inside zone runs we know Kubiak is the master of the zone run scheme cousins passing with play action, which he did a thirty two percent clip last season fifth highest among qualifying quarterbacks. Those are the calling cards of this vikings offense. But looking at this entire landscape of the Vikings team there cannot be any drop off with the offense they have to dominate again. They play schedule of defense is projected to be bottom five until efficiency more is on the plate of Minnesota's offense. This season todd because the defense has serious question marks. While you mentioned the question marks on that defense and I think we know that when you look at coach, Zimmer Defense has always been his calling card. The Vikings have exceeded expectations seemingly more often than not they have stars at multiple levels whether it's hunter upfront who continues to emerge as one of the elite pass rushers that's out there Eric Kendricks linebacking. Core all were Harrison is an absolute anchor back there in the secondary you're talking about a fifth ranked scoring defense in two thousand nineteen that loses eight contributors from last year stopping it. Now, some of those guys were veterans that we didn't necessarily think the most of, but still difficult to replace the likes of Lynnville. Joseph Xavier. Rhodes. Everson Griffen trae Wayne's etc.. How do we even begin to go about assessing what this vikings defense is going to look like because a lot of those veterans had been in the system for a while they stand complex schemes and now all of a sudden you're talking about fresh faces without a preseason needing to learn how they're gonNA coexist with one another and create that cohesion right from week one when they take on the packers. Zimmer's you're going to have his hands full defense this year you mentioned all lost the defensive side of the ball. You'll look Minnesota's cognizant of of they lost. They went out drafted nine defensive players. So I am really intrigued see how large the drop is defensively we called for a tiny dip last season we got it we bang the table I think for a few seasons now the vikings defense isn't what the overall efficiency metric suggest it's almost like likings defense has effectively trick the system so to speak they have a cheat code because they're outstanding preventing touchdowns in the red zone which key just forty five percent opponent trips resulted in touchdowns second best in the NFL last season. And they are fantastic not giving up the big explosive place of their EPA was second best in the NFL top six than explosive play defense against both the running past. So those two categories. Or what Minnesota's lived on defensively prevent the big play, hold the three I think eventually the luck runs out with some of that. Where the concern lies is how bad Minnesota's defense has been down to down, which is more predictable than where they've been really good on nearly twelve hundred plays. Last season fifty, one percent of them graded successful against Minnesota's defense thirty first against the run twenty, six against the passing success rate allowed. We also saw vikings defense that really got pushed around on early downs. Downs that we are encouraging offenses to pass more on our first and second because I down runs and second and long runs are just so inefficient. But the Vikings defense lot fifty, seven percent of all first and second down runs to great successful as dead. Last in the NFL. It's hard to be elite if you aren't winning on early downs in, you aren't forcing teams into predictable long situations on second and third you lose Everson Griffen you'll lose linval Joseph along the defensive line the guy you brought in to solve the issue stopping the run was all world run stuff for Michael. Pierce That's Minnesota spent the most money on free agency is off season he opted out. So you can tell, Zimmer knows he tried to scramble and facilitated trade with the raiders for Interior Linemen. PJ Hill because it's such, a weak spot deal gets done than hill fails as physical. So the trade gets nixed we know Danilo hunters a monster, but I'm intrigued to see how his production looks when he becomes the focal point of every defensive game. Plan, he's going to get doubled. He's GonNa get chipped, and it's not like this. You know a defensive line last season with all those guys that are now gone. That was just like getting after the quarterback in pressuring them at a ridiculous clip, their twenty-second pressure eight, twenty, six, then pass rush win rate hunter can only do so on his own you mentioned. The back end the linebacking group in the safety group are elite. The corner situation is an interesting one. You'll lose roads, Wayne's and Mackenzie Alexander. Now I know they allowed combined one twelve passer rating season, but it was a down year for the group they're all gone. Now you expect Mike Hughes to be the team's number one corner I know he's battled significant. Injury but he's been a below average corner the first two seasons. Houghton Hill was the leftover from last season secondary played less than one hundred coverage snaps were a month away from the season and right now at this week's practice, the lead corners on the outside have been holding hill and Mike Use Jeff glad neither rookie from TCU has been in the slot. He could be an absolute beast. He was an ace for Tcu a lot of fifty nine passer rating the last two seasons in college shutdown guys like CD LAMB and Akim. Butler Denzel mims and. Colin Johnson, the last season upside is there but again, you're asking a rookie to be a vital part of the Vikings defense. In a limited offseason. We Know Coverage Games are pretty complex though one name I keep hearing every time Vikings report comes across my desk is cornerback Cam Dancer he's making play after play. He's impressed apparently Adam feeling. So he's someone to watch for all the bodies you can find in the secondary going to be important because if you think the schedule of offenses were tough last season Minnesota faces a top five scheduled passing offenses in two thousand, twenty, top five schedule of offenses. Overall, there is very little depth to this defense and team in general taught. If I wasn't confused by the hierarchy or what to expect in the NFC north coming into this podcast even more confused with the picture being completely muddle trying to figure out what we're going to get from these four teams that in my opinion have done less this off season in terms of bringing impact players than any other division in the nfl pain, it is wide open and I think the key term that we always. Use because I know fans get pissed off. If you say team is down research teams up, it's relative to expectations. So we don't envision the packers go from three and thirteen to sixteen, but there's going to be regression there. Same thing I think with Minnesota there's going to be regression there and there's probably GonNa be some positive regression for Detroit. But at the end of the day, it's the division that still a muddled mess. Yeah I mean trying to make heads or tails of exactly which of these teams will take the next step which teams don't fall the furthest coming back to the field will leave I. Think a lot of the casual fans out there scratching their head but didn't stop us from breaking all four of them down in all of their glory and of course. There will be a division champion crown. If you're asking me to pick a team right now, I have absolutely no clue. So thankfully, we don't have to do that is part of this preseason examination. As always you can follow me on twitter at Paine insider I'm todd firm and you can follow me there but most importantly follow the podcasts at the board pot for all sorts of announcements leading up to the season subscribe on your favorite podcast platform. So you know the moment a new podcast drops whether it be for pro or college football. You'll have it right there and available for your listening pleasure. But pain before we get out of dodge and put a bow on the NFC north. Where are you seeing an investment opportunity today? Sadly, we're going to start where we finished. In addition to all the personnel losses. Minnesota's a team that's going to regress in just about every luck metric they thrived in last season Minnesota was the healthiest team in the NFL that assured a. And we've already mentioned that there's not a ton of depth there. We talked about Minnesota having field-goal luck. It was the largest swing year-over-year. Minnesota had the second-best fumble luck when Minnesota, didn't win the turnover battle. They didn't win games one and four in games they didn't win the turnover battle. We really like the Vikings win total under this season, we can use nine for the purposes of the Podcast, but I beg you to shop this because there are a few shops that deal multiple win total options for each team. Those books right now are using nine and a half under minus one, forty, five and nine over minus one twenty. That half win is worth substantially more than twenty five cents. Our group took nine and a half under forty and would encourage you to do that as well. If you can get it for forty cents or better than the nine price, it's always good insight and that's why I have to ask some of the questions out there. Even if you can't peel back the curtain completely offer some of our listeners out there but it's just something that they can add to their tool belt as they assess. Myriad of options that are readily available as they look towards the NFL season in twenty twenty any final words of wisdom parting shots, things that you'd like to get off your chest before we get out of dodge this fine morning right now, we are preparing to launch the fourth season of the bet, the Board Five K free role. So will have a little bit more Intel on the next cast we do there, but it is coming back this season just go to the board pod twitter they'll be pinned tweet with all the instructions. Their same instructions will be on the board contests DOT COM. So follow those instructions, the Five K. contest is coming back. So I think it's A big contest right last year, we had four thousand entries. I would think a lot of people probably aren't traveling to Vegas to sign up for some of the prestigious contest. This is a free role. Five thousand in prizes, and then we have weekly winners for all seventeen weeks as well. So look for that it'll probably be linked in the podcast description and again the pin tweet will be on the board pod twitter twitter feed their. So all the Intel for the Five K Free Roll we'll be. We'll be at your hands coming soon as always it's a way for us to show our appreciation for you. The loyal bet, the boy listeners whether you've been with us since we started this podcast years ago, or you're just happen to listen to the first show as sports betting is become legalized in your home stay we always appreciate it and want to do everything we can to give back not only by making you. Smarter, more informed betters, but also allow you to compete for what we like to think is a pretty prestigious prize in the grand scheme of things given the records that are pass champions have compiled the last couple of seasons. Yeah. The winners have been killing some of I think few of the past years our winters have done the super contest and that's important because we don't give a half point for for a push. Always, say we say it all the time smartest listeners in the game smartest listeners in the game tuning into this podcast we know we. Help raise the gambling intellect a little bit of time, and it's what you can come to expect Europe about the board going forward. So for pain insider, I am todd firm and best of luck with all of your NFC north studying prognostications and prognosis income the end of the regular season with the Vikings. Ticket hand we'll. See You. The window. Thanks for listening to the board you can catch todd end pain every Monday Wednesday and Thursday during football season breaking down the biggest fell and college football games and to make sure you don't miss any free best bets subscribe to bet the Board on itunes, Google play spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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AFC West Football Preview: Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

Bet The Board

1:20:43 hr | 3 weeks ago

AFC West Football Preview: Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

"That thou board. We ever bet you. Twenty bucks i can get. You can't with forty year only fifteen grand how they pay debts men his manny. It's the board. Podcast really really like the and i could still pick winners can still make money for all kinds of people back home. Why mess up a good thing. Here's pain insider and toddler into the bet. The board podcast powered by fan duel sportsbook. It is our eighth and final. Nfl preseason preview with the afc west on tap nfl preseason officially in the rear view mir which means we're two short weeks away or thereabouts from to- meeting football for meaningful football. I am your host. Todd furman joined by my steam colleague. Costa one the only pain insider but before we get into the show. It's the perfect time to remind you to fan. Duel dot com backslash bet aboard take advantage of all their generous new user sign ups for all you folks in the state of arizona looking at you fan duel expects to be live on opening night for the national football league september ninth. It is the perfect bankroll builder promotion. One thousand dollars in free bets absolutely risk-free make your deposit. If you happen to lose your. I bet fan duel. We'll reimburse you with full site credit up to seventy two hours after but we don't expect any of you our listeners to lose i bet you go in their fire and you can get things started in the right manner pain. I know you're excited because we're talking about your favorite division but probably more excited because we're almost done with the previous series thirteen preview podcast twelve or down the final one. Here we go. It's been about two months of a ton of work and preparation. Which you know we do ourselves anyways. But kind of putting the excel sheet into talking points as a little bit different and so here we are but this is. This is the final leg of thirteen preview. Podcast final of the nfl is well. You'll have over a week to go back and listen if you missed division preview. Lots of best bets. So it's been quite the the overhaul this offseason in your throat and for those folks who have been with us from the starter you just might be finding bet the board for the first time this football season we will resume our normal wednesday programming with week one of college football this week. Of course georgia clemson the main course but plenty of other great games to get into the swing of things that will allow us to remove the bad taste. Left in our mouths by watching games between fresno state yukon hawaii. Ucla and a variety of other appetizers that may not have lived up to their advanced billing pain. Perfect time to remind folks about the ba. The board football zero if you wanna share that information for all of them. Yes the annual. Nfl pick five contest is back. Six thousand season-long prizes. We also will reward a weekly you winner with some cash. All eighteen weeks go to bed the board contests dot com sign up. All you have to do is pick five games against the spread each and every week. It's that simple. It's free to join this plus ev. If you can't make it out to vegas and sign up for a contest. Your bankroll isn't quite there or just understand that joining a free contest again is is a plus v situation. Sign up for the contest but the board contest dot com and sign. ups continued. Get ratchet up there so tell your friends tell your family get everyone involved and pain before we get into the four teams. We do have remaining. I wanted to take a few minutes to answer a couple of questions that have come across on social media and normally you and i are relatively tight lipped about what goes on outside of the the board brand from professional things and everything else along those lines but a number of folks wanna thank all of you for asking questions is you saw potential press release that shared what the upcoming cast is gonna look like for fox. Bet live in season four. I will not be a part of the show going forward. And i know people were a little bit surprised asking what we had in store. Plenty of big things around here but that was a personal decision as much as anything else. The format of the show was changing. It won't be daily. Fox is actually let anybody know that to be the case. one of our co host. Rachel veneta moving onwards and upwards taking a job with nfl network. So just felt for me. Personally it was the right time to move away from that franchise after three years no. I wasn't fired. Fox did offer me a contract extension. Maybe not one that. I strongly considered along those lines but wanted to try and squash some of the rumors that were out there people go. Oh well you lost last season. They didn't invite you back. Couldn't have been further from the truth network. Wanna try and make a commitment. I just didn't feel it was in my best interest. Think there's a lot of other things worth exploring in this space. And since this is our podcast. It's a hell of a lot better to do it here and explain some of that to you. Guys that have been with us along the way more so than sharing now with you know one hundred eighty characters or whatever. Twitter allows these days so wanted to get that out there and across of course if folks have questions feel free to hit me up on twitter and i'm happy to answer that and share some of that so didn't want to steal your thunder or anything like that pain but felt. This was the perfect avenue to tryin share some of that professional update for those folks that have been with us for a long time. No not at all. I think it's the perfect venue to get some information out when you own things and yona podcast say whatever the hell you want and for me. You know my feelings on this situation. I've been very supportive. And i think the way this works between you. And i is. That were polar opposites so it doesn't make me upset at all. It actually makes me happy because things that i've been preaching to you for years about own things build your own things. I mean that. That's my emma and so i have seen over the years how the networks treat their employees and certainly not my vibe and and listen. Let's be candidate. It's great to say you have a television show. It works great at parties and nights out and but the reality is you can make far more building your own brand doing it on your own. This is not the first time we've seen this. We saw play on the espn side from someone in the gambling. Space walk. i'm leaving. i'm going to start my own network and so this this is commonplace. And i think when you get to a stage and you can correct me if i'm wrong and i'm not taking a shot at you. We've had these conversations privately but when it comes to the network there's very few people that that call their own shots and whether we think they're great talents are not i guess. The views acquaint to them making big box. But i mean. There's only a handful of people. The stephen a. smith the skip bayless colin cowards. That call their own shots and eventually what happens. Is you get to be a todd firm. And in that tier we'll call two or three category and the question becomes. Do we hire cheaper and you can. You can go there. There's lots of guys dying for digital jobs in this space for fifty sixty seventy thousand bucks and so eventually if you're not deemed to be skip bayless. That's kind of an interest. Yeah it's it's an interesting game that i've been hesitant to talk about but mean that's why i love this podcast so much dot and that's been talking about this expansion for for years. I mean last year. You talk about the audio version of this podcast. We peaked at twenty six in the all sports category of apple podcasts. And that's thanks in part or listenership. We were the only podcast that didn't come from a network or wasn't a podcast network. The only podcast that didn't have distributions. Thanks to you guys and so if you create good content. I've long maintained. You don't need the networks people are gonna find you and so i know obviously your goal is to be on television and i think that will happen in the right situation but for now we're going to expand but the board and i think it's going to go well for you you know you're right. It's all about the dynamic created. And i think when you look at the sports betting ecosystem right now. There's a lot of content that you know to put it nicely. As rather questionable we've obviously been able to prove our authenticity and part of our models but there is a difference right what you're seeing now in. Our space is good content verses content being created for content sake right and i think we are the former we create content when we started two thousand fourteen that we did just to do and we continue to create good content whereas where you're seeing the space head now. People are just waking up in the morning and creating content for the paycheck in creating content for the clicks and there isn't actually a lot of great content even in this space now despite the oversaturation of gotta know there are a lot of challenges that come into it and as we've tried to always convey to you guys are loyalists. Nurses painted has shared. We do it for you guys. All the feedback is great. The interaction we love the five star reviews on itunes and the continued uptick and downloads. That we've seen over the years but it's all about trying to make you guys smarter and better and so much of the gambling space these days all about picks but you know what even the best in the world. they're gonna lose forty five percent of the time during the course of their best seasons. So what kind of value can you add to the infrastructure on those other days. It's teaching you metrics trying to highlight situations and hopefully you guys can continue to make more informed choices but didn't wanna go off on a tangent share here. I think this is a great subject. And i didn't expect this to go along and our producer. Probably hate us for not getting this on top but the you know the reality of the situation is this is the one space where content gets air quotes graded differently right any other piece of content in the in the podcasting spaces you know. Did i get smarter from it. Did i learn something. Did it entertain me. And that's it. This is the one space where you can take ten hours to. Prep for the podcast. Another three hours recording and post production and someone goes to the you know the best bat sixteen seconds of content loses in. You're getting a one star review and that's the difference in the space which is odd to me so we just need to be smarter like we love our listeners. Because the smarts in the space but if you can continue to help us grow by sharing the podcast leading friends no co workers. It's a huge help because we've seen where things are heading right now and it's sad to say this again you go back to like putting in ten hours of crap and then another three hours of recording and post production and it's awesome right you get you tweet out the podcast. She get fifty likes but the reality where the space is heading. You know the half naked girl can take a selfie in the picture and it's four thousand likes and it's like wow maybe i should start creating fourteen second content instead of fifteen our content. So you know it's up to you guys to like favorite share the best content in this space and maybe grow up and be a little bit more mature and things of nature and not get you know succumb to the half naked girls on the internet but there we go rent over. It's all about marketing and trying to take advantage there and as pain said this'll be the biggest most comprehensive season that we have in store for you with the board a major announcement that will share most likely next week to get you guys ready for something that we're gonna fail in time for the nfl season but enough about all of that again. Just wanna share some of those professional updates with all of you guys and girls out there who i see extended family. Even if we don't know you by your first name we appreciate the ears that you guys continue to contribute to growing this especially with thirteen. Preseason podcasts before we even start talking about regular season football but onto the afc west the last and final division as we talked about. And as we've done for the first seven divisions will run things down in alphabetical order. So for me pain who may not be the best when it comes organizing my bookshelf. I think d- would mean the denver would be the first team that we're going to hit on. And when you look at the denver broncos they're seven to one hundred dollars to win the afc west their win total sits at eight and a half flat. If you want more on the win total you can understand where sentiments come from by going back and listening to the last podcast we provided when you look at the broncos four straight losing seasons for the first time since the late sixties for a once proud franchise. They haven't made the playoffs since they won the super bowl back in two thousand fifteen sixteen finish last year with the worst turnover differential at minus sixteen they have the worst divisional record since two thousand sixteen but when you look at their schedule. Things offer a heck of a lot of potential. We talked a little bit about teddy bridgewater. Getting the nod over drew lock. But when you look at this offense pain. It has the potential to be sneaky. Good with a lot of playmakers there that if they're not household names now fantasy players across this country and everywhere else are going to know their names by the end of the season yet. Let's start with where we finished. The last podcast. And it is that quarterback situation and it's clear that vic fangio number wanted the safer more conservative quarterback. And i think that's the quarterback that won't hurt fangio's defense and he's teddy bridgewater certainly has the higher floor and he's the guy that you know when you look at the schedule out of the gates but you kind of alluded to his very manageable to start so i i think teddy's the guy and as a better. I like the guy with less ferrets. But if i'm an owner or a gm i sure shit don't wake up in the morning asking myself. Like how can i win. Nine or ten games in year three of this regime. And i look around and i understand patrick mahomes in herbert or in my division and i need a quarterback that gives me the highest ceiling and i also what's interesting to me and maybe i'm a little different todd. I understand through information in my eyes. The drew lock that. We saw last season. Probably isn't the drew lock. We're getting this year bought. It was clear he worked more. This offseason improving his game and mental side more than any other year in his life for my understanding and you look at some of the upside stuff twenty four. it's got a canon for an army also runs four six and we know he doesn't lack confidence so interesting that he does not. He is not lacking as far as bravados concerned. No so it's interesting from that perspective. Now i love tattoos. A miami guy. And he's battled back through adversity so you have to love that. He's a great dude. But we saw very good coach. And mike zimmer move on we saw sean payton one of the best defensive mind say rather go tasted miller jameis winston and then we had matt rule one of the better program builders who typically has showed year to leaps along his journey and he knows that joe brady his o. Oc has a relationship with teddy for multiple years but in year two. You'd rather all the dyson sam darnold. And so we question coaches all the time and rightfully so. But we're now looking. At a situation where zimmer sean payton in rule all decided to move on her wrong now maybe the strategy here is simple. It's like go out win nine ten eleven games. And then you prove to aaron rodgers that. Hey we have great team here. The roster's loaded the only thing missing is you. It's interesting from from that perspective on the quarterback choice. And maybe if you want to share some of your thoughts before we go into the the actual offense no. I think it makes a ton of sense. I mean oftentimes we all get lured in by tantalizing potential especially was star prospects. And you and. I have been critical of drew. Lock even going back to his time at missouri. The one common denominator there was hey look drew. Scott all the physical tools and traits. But he's lacking something every time very stepped up in class. You never got that herculean effort even what we saw in some games from a guy like johnny manziel where he could put the team on his back. It felt this off season. And you talked about it that we were getting a different drew. Lock the maturity in his quotes in comments. Kind of came through and preseason performances. Neither here nor there in my opinion When you're looking at the main position but just his demeanor and expectations more so than anything else led me to believe that. Hey look the light might finally be going on and this guy realizes that. He's not going to be pampered. Coddled as this elite arm. Talent that you've been all along the way income teddy bridgewater. We thought he was going to be a logical potential backup. If denver was going to be able to make a move for aaron rodgers this off season. I think you talking about the fact that three teams in the past with highly respected coaches have parted ways with teddy and we love the fact. He's been able to recover and make himself as much money as he has. After that horrific injury suffered that not only was going to be career ending but potentially life-threatening as well if they weren't able to med vac away from the facility. I think you talking about aaron rodgers potentially seeing how talented this roster is thinking to himself. we get to december january once. Green bay is eliminated from the playoffs. Going you know. What if i was playing with that much talent around me. This is a team that's committed. I've gone up against vic. Fangio led defenses when he was the dc in chicago. This is the perfect landing spot for me to be an upgraded to position. And i think it makes a ton of sense for a team that honestly paint. Turn the ball over thirty two times last season on offense and when you look at tatty he'll be the fifth different week one starter over the last five years for the denver broncos. So let's see what they have. There's no excuses for teddy. He can't blame this denver. Supporting cast or lack of time spent on red zone execution as the reason if he's not able to excel this year. There's no doubt about that. And you're going to get an accurate quarterback. You're also gonna get a vocal leader and that's something that even drew lock said after succumbing to defeat and said. Hey i'm gonna learn from teddy here in one of his best attributes is is being a leader. Now you're also going to get a guy that throws a very catchable ball and is accurate. I mean even last year teddy's completion percentage is about two and a half percent above expectation. The knock untidy as that. He's gay manager right. He won't push the ball downfield and last year we saw averaged five point. One completed air yards now. Fifth lowest among qualifying quarterbacks hopefully he here's out of touch more this season. He claimed that he got hurt. In the second buccaneers game week. Ten last year said he should have shut. shut it down so maybe we give teddy. The benefit of the doubt carolina did have the eighth most efficient offense the first nine weeks before this injury that he mentioned they finished seventeenth and then they had an end of season waited rank of nineteenth so maybe some truth to the injury teddy also face. The very toughest schedule of passing defense is in two thousand twenty with carolina but denver projects to face the very easiest schedule. Pass defenses this year now. A lot of the offensive issues. Aren pat shurmur who. I don't love as an oc not aggressive enough for me. Denver had the fifth lowest early down pass rate in the first half last year so no surprise that they were thirtieth in early down. Success need to up that aggression. Especially if you're going with the more experienced quarterback your starting teddy because you trust him so you can't baby the weapons around teddy that you mentioned are young. They're plentiful probably a bit undervalued. Cordon sutton back after an injury last season but in two thousand nineteen finished eighth in yards per route rung among receivers with at least one hundred targets jerry. Judy should see a year to search. Fantastic route runner. And then all of a sudden he caught the case of the drops last year which he's never dealt with before getting nineteen percent. Drop percentage was the highest among receivers with at least one hundred targets. Caja hamlet didn't have nearly the amount of targets judy but he also had a nineteen percent. Drop right himself. And so what you're hearing from. Some of the receivers is that teddy delivers a very catchable ball. Maybe there's not as much venom on it. As as when drew lock is thrown it so that that should improve. And then you have. Tim patrick who is a plus receiver. Denver actually turned down a raven trade for him. You have no fan tight end. When he's healthy is a match up nightmare. I think the big question offensively is the line. Denver finished twenty eighth. Then line yards last season. Didn't create much space upfront. They're also twenty four th and pass block win rate they bring in bobby massey at right tackle. He's been a plus right tackle but obviously the hope was john. James would be their guy. Their class cow was the big signing last year. I think you'll have a better year. Dalton riser is i think poised for year three surge. Cushenberry is a question market center but he was a rookie last year and a weird off season. Denver also drafted kind of the the star of of offensive linemen in this past year's draft quinn miners and he's had a great camp so far in preseason. Let's see if denver can get average line play. I think the sky's the limit and it's possible. That can happen for a few reasons. Because i think teddy will be better. Identifying things pre snap and shifting some protections he gets rid of it quicker than drew lock. And then you look at the projected schedule of pass rushing defenses. It's bottom five. So i think those things will help with pass blocking. And then all the intel. I have says devante williams could be the best broncos back since terrell davis and the schedule of run defenses projects to bottom three there. So let's see if if all these things kind of assist in and below the average to below average o. line play but that would be a massive upgrade offensively. The pieces appear to be there. Obviously there are some questions. We're not going to pretend that. This denver broncos team will be as high flying prolific as what we saw from peyton manning and his fifty touchdown pass campaign but the nice part denver defensively. They felt a little bit on hard times a season ago. They felt the twenty fifth allowing nearly twenty eight points per game. You look at some of the editions. A couple key in the secondary. When you bring in kyle fuller you bring in ronald darby. You lose giral. Casey along your defensive line. Ag boy they release. I mean that was this situation that got uglier by the day last season. They've now gone three straight seasons outside the top ten thirty three takeaways over the last two seasons combined and while they were outstanding in the red zone. Well that's one thing but if you're going to allow teams to score from outside the red zone. It's not that big a deal they allow seventy-six plays of twenty plus yards. You would think with von miller coming back completely healthy. It will bolster that pass rush. But what kind of expectations should we have for a denver. Stop unit knowing that vic fangio's defensive. Dna should be all over this group. And there's only one direction for them to go is up after a disappointing campaign just a year ago. I mean vic fangio's guy that we've talked about on this podcast for years is one of the best defensive mind ever coach football and his is were built to stop passing offenses before. Those were actually thing. So real revolutionary honestly and to me. Last year i thought the broncos defense was very impressive especially when you consider all of the negative factors. I mean denver. Had one of the most injured defenses. They were decimated along the deal on. The offense was such a mess. That denver's defense started their defensive possessions. On average at the thirty two that was the third worst starting field position for a defense last season. And then add to that denver face third most difficult schedule of offenses and the most difficult schedule passing offenses. And some how fangio managed to have the fourth best early down defense and the defense was well above average and overall efficiency. Now i look at denver. And you mentioned they get von miller. Back chubb in personnel are also back healthy. A defense that spent on kyle fuller and ronald darby and free agency and then drafted pats retain junior with the ninth. Pick of the draft. So you know a defense also projects to face a bottom five schedule of offenses in a bottom five schedule of passing offenses and a defense. That i'm assuming won't see its opponents. Start drives at the thirty. Two doodoo turnovers and incessant. Three and outs. I mean denver's defense also spent thirty two minutes a game on the field. That was a top ten right. And you think about this first second todd and i think you know we kind of know denver's defense can be and we spent a ton of time on the broncos longer than i think most expected but you think about starting field position for opponents and then correlate that to mile high where you can like bang field goals home from sixty like their layups when teams are starting at the thirty two about two first downs and teams were in field goal range at some point last season so i think that completely changes this year. I think denver has a chance to be an elite defense pending injuries. A unit that probably fights to be top-five inefficient on you know it's a team that's interesting. It's a franchise that prides itself on being extremely relevant and winning championships. Not just trying to compile winning seasons. But it's been a long time coming part of that is because of instability at the quarterback position so we'll see if that gets rectified this year and they can lean on defense and skill position cast. I think we're more bullish on the lot of folks but when you talk about gold standards for skill positions pain it starts with one franchise and they become the preeminent gold standard. Not just in the afc. Maybe the entire nfl over the last couple of years that of course the kansas city chiefs and their rightful favorites to win this division for the sixth straight season. You're looking at fan. Duel sportsbook laying a price. Just shy of three to one their win. Total sits at twelve and a half year. lay a buck. Forty if you wanna go under that number patrick mahomes. This is a quarterback who already accomplished a ton and is very short. Nfl career ironically enough. He'll entered this season with chip on. His shoulder comes in off his worst loss as an nfl. Starting quarterback nine points of course was the worst offensive output. We've seen from the chiefs with mahomes a quarterback trying to become the four team. Nfl history to reach their third straight super bowl. Eighty one score games. A season ago won eleven consecutive road game streak. That still active. And when you look at patrick. Mahomes and andy reid. The true dynamic duo in the nfl these days four and ten so far as head coach and starting quarterback kansas city pain. The sky may be the limit. We've seen super bowl hangover. Be something very real. But when you look at this chiefs offense. I think the biggest question mark comes with an offensive line. That's going to have a lot of fresh faces in key positions when you look at kansas city. Obviously both the floor in the ceiling are extremely high. When you have andy reid and mahomes in tyreek and kelsey it's really great talent executing a great scheme and that's that's a tough combination to beat the principles and play calling are virtually false. You know andy. Reid does all of the things that we preach to help. An offense as if he doesn't have any talent right from motion rates to using a really good amount of play action to passing on early downs to not running in second long situations and not running into eight men boxes all of the stuff that we kind of preach that good offense is in good coordinators over the years. Andy reid habit of doing all of that. And there's only gonna be varying degrees of great for kansas. City's offense if the key cog stay healthy but you mentioned one of the areas to address. And i think there's a couple but i think the most glaring one is is the offensive line and you know this was probably one of the more talked about units in the last six months in the entire league and that was that was the offensive line. And you know it's basically been torn down to the studs in rebuilt. Eric fisher is a thirty one year old coming off a late season achilles tear so the chiefs moved on mitchell. Schwartz is thirty two incoming off back surgery so they let him walk. He's still a free agent for the last two seasons. When you look at the chiefs offensive line they finished twenty six and twenty third and pressure. It allowed each of the last two seasons the chiefs o. Line is finished thirty. First and blown block rate and last year the chiefs thirty first and run block win rates so from my eyes when i look at this complete overhaul like i'm ecstatic orlando brown not only upgrades. The left tackle position be just turned. Twenty five better. An younger like that's a great combination. Joe tony is in his prime sign. One of the most lucrative guard deals in nfl. History creed humphry was a second round. Pick this year trace smith. That's probably name. You remember. Todd he's the former all world five star tackle recruit who dealt with issues at tennessee on and off the field. It was a boomer bossed flyer type pick in round six this year so far. It's been all boom. He is in line to be the chief styler Starting right guard. You have lucas neang. He was twenty twenty third round. Pick out of tcu. He's been really impressive and projected to start at right tackle. So what i've seen brett. Vj do is get younger more talented and also built great depth. Along the only remember. Like there's still guys. They're like mike remers and austin blythe and tardiff and wylie and kyle long that have all played a ton of starting snaps in this league so this overhaul might mean not only just an improved on but just kind of looking at the parts and their strengths. We might see a little shift in in run scheme here but bottom line. This chiefs online went from a major liability six months ago to probably projecting as a top ten unit. Right now i think the other question i have is the outside receiver position opposite tyreek hill. Is it demarcus. Robinson byron pringle or someone not on the roster so that'll be interesting to watch roster cuts get down to. I think fifty three at four. Pm tomorrow maybe. The chiefs make a move. We obviously know tyreek hill is. He's one of the top receivers in the league. And i think nicole hardman appears ready for nice little coming out party. That is a guy that runs four three damn good after the catch. He's built a pretty nice floor. But i think the chiefs are looking for more there. Obviously but the question for me is like who's wide receiver three. I'm not really a demarcus. Robinson guy looks great getting off. The bus makes loads of mistakes. He turned out less than one yard. Peru outrun last season byron pringle is a kansas state. Guy ultimate hard work story overachiever. Smart does all the little things does all the right things. He just doesn't have a dynamic trait. So i think brent beach needs to add someone to this room. I'm shocked has called miami obvious you know. Honestly for for one of their receivers knowing they're looking for some align depth that felt like probably a pretty good match trade the other thing. That's interesting todd. And i obviously love patrick mahomes but at you do panama read. That's you do he to play with a little more urgency to start games and speaking with more on the other day. And you know. It's in the preview magazine at sharp football. They pointed out. The chiefs went into halftime with an average lead of three and a half points last season lead at halftime in just nine games. That was kind of the difference last year because the prior two seasons the chiefs went into halftime with leads of six point. Nine points in seven and a half points. And when i dig into some of mahomes metrics he was seventeenth in. Epa per pass attempt on first downs. The first three quarters so that dwindled last year and is partly responsible for the team getting out of the gates a little bit slower. We know great moms is right. Means the first quarterback every organization takes redraft right the second the arm talent is through the roof off platform throws unmatched. The one. the other night against the vikings was just ridiculous and he threatens a defense the way no other quarterback can't but he does need to kind of dial in on some of the fundamentals last year twenty fourth in on target percentage completion percentage of one percent below expectation. You could see a situation where you have a young kid that's in the limelight and getting all the press any win the super bowl in two thousand nineteen you probably get to touch complacent cove. It hits his wife gets pregnant. Suddenly the urgency dips touch. But everything. i'm hearing mahomes is is focused back in so those are really the three things that i'm looking for this season. The chiefs wanna make another run is the enhanced o. Line play a second outside. Receiver to emerge in mahomes to clean up some of the small things but the real positive here. Todd passed the obvious dalit and the great coaching. Kansas city's offense faces a projected schedule of defenses bottom ten overall bottom ten against the pass and bottom five against the run. It should open up all sorts of opportunities. I don't think anybody goes oh. We expect kansas city to fall off a cliff by any stretch of the imagination. We'll call that super bowl performance. Thirty one nine loss at tampa. More an anomaly than anything else when you look at this team defensively pain. We know that they don't get nearly enough credit for how they've been built at team. Essentially that's built a defense to protect leads more than anything else. We know that they're vulnerable against the run but kansas city's often scores points. It forces a lot a lot more pressure on their opposition. You pin your ears back with pass rushers and you can have a very good secondary this off season. They go out. They add mike hughes in that department. Sharon reed who's been a disruptor along the defensive line you bring a nick bolton through the draft. You do lose brillon quietly. Kansas city's put together a top ten defense. Each of the last two seasons as far as points per game allowed us concern. They are a little bit vulnerable in the red zone where they allowed opponents to score on more than seventy five percent of their trips. But when you look at. Kansas city and i found this number staggering when the kansas city chiefs holder opponents below. Thirty points there. Thirty three and to the last thirty five instances. So it's not as though this team has to be the two thousand baltimore ravens by any stretch of the imagination. But you guys jerry sneed and willie gay who are taking up tyron. Matthew is an absolute beast at the back end. I think the biggest question is what. Are you going to get from a pass. Rush between chris jones and frank clark who's really fallen off or at least did fall off last season. I mean i think you've hit this perfectly. And i think a lot of people know my feelings about spags at this point and he's a guy that i truly respect and he manages to get production. That's better than some of its parts. And i think we all know some of the big names on the chiefs defense that everyone talks about any you talk chiefs defense. And it's chris jones. it's tyron matthew. Both those guys to me have some issues right chris. Jones is fantastic but he plays a real boomer style tyron. Matthew is undoubtedly a very good player. But i think he's probably overvalued by the general public francorp is you colluded to needs to step up a one trick. Pony pass rusher in last year. He was only in the fiftieth percentile. Among rushers yellow. Can't set the address. Stop in the run. Game either is not very good. I don't like the fact that spags cut taco charlton. I think that he had some potential an upside to him. Especially what you're paying him didn't really love that. Move but bottom line. Is i believe if the chiefs defense wants to get back to. Its two thousand nineteen form when they were above average. And that's all that needs to be is above average defense is if the young guys get them there and the position that i've talked about for a few seasons. That needed upgrading was linebacker. And i know it's not a value position but it was just so bad and so we saw brett. Vh go out back to backdraughts and round to pick up. Willie gay junior than nick. Bolton this year willie gays. Been all the buzz this offseason. He's a sideline decide linebacker. Something the chiefs haven't had in years. He was truly missed the super bowl. And then you have some of the guys in the secondary that you mentioned. I think bread. Vh in spags of done. Great work finding young value guys in the secondary luxurious nita. Someone we've talked about. For multiple years now in spags raved about him. That was his. That was his guy. Fifty three passer rating when targeted. You still have rashad fenton. Who didn't allow a passing touchdown. All season just fifty eight percent of his targets or caught chavez ward only fifty three percent of targets to be caught. All three of those guys were selected in the fourth round or undrafted. I mean i like the trade value with mike use. That was an early round. Draft selection that zimmer. Kind of gave up on i like the value signing in jurong read. I think that's going to allow the line be a little bit more versatile. I think you'll see situations where chris jones kicked out wide this year. At certain instances of game you're also looking at a bottom ten schedule of offenses. The chiefs are going to face. So i think this unit with their young talent has a real chance to kind of get back to that two thousand nineteen level. And if they do that and we think the offense improves with align play. Chiefs are gonna make another run. And what's really interesting here. is you know. Sometimes you hear a lot of people talking by. Hey we wanna wanna fade the chiefs we to be contrary and we want to go under twelve and a half wins and i have seen a little bit money on this under and when you look at some of the pie stuff. The chiefs definitely overachieved last season. A lot of come. From behind and one score game victories. But i am not fading mahomes and i am not fading andy reid and the chiefs of gone over there. Preseason when total every single season. Andy reid has been with the chief so i i. I'm not gonna go that route in join that party but there has been a little tinge a little touch of sharp money on the under twelve and a half definitely a team that i think you kind of assess week to week of a similar mindset. Here i'm not going to try and go out there and play a little bit of hero ball and step in front of this. Kansas city freight train team. Said all the right things this off season about potentially being motivated and you can understand why after the shellacking. They took at the hands of the tampa bay bucks. So let's see them go out there. Perform we'll get a great week. One game they play host. The cleveland browns a rematch of last year's. Afc playoff game when you look at the other two teams in the division pain. The las vegas raiders. They're the biggest longshots on the board within the division seventeen to one the price at fan duel sportsbook their win. Total sits at seven flat again. John gruden's team started fast last year. Going six and three limped to the finish for the second straight season. They struggled mightily in home games. This season ago going just to exit. Of course no home field advantage in their first foray at allegiance stadium. You begin to wonder though when you continue to see the raiders. Start well and fade. Late is itself scouting or other teams figuring them out a root cause for what could be contributing to this for franchise. It has just one winning record since two thousand sixteen and one division title or playoff game since two thousand and two. I mean not a ton to be excited about for silver and black. But one thing i will say. I don't think their quarterback it's nearly if credit as they like to make him the scapegoat for everything. that's gone wrong for the then oakland. now. Las vegas raiders. Were sharing a brain here. And i think big picture when i look at gruden and derek carr. It's pretty clear they're living under the same roof but the relationships over there just kind of at that point where they're figuring out their finances and getting those in order and when the time's right one or both of them could be gone and you really think about this. Todd since gruden got the job we've heard nothing but rumours about how these two don't get along and the rumors seemingly pop up every couple months and have for three years now and where there's smoke there's fire and i don't get it like you. I i really think. Derek carr is a plus quarterback and he's been willing to change his style to bend degroot and apparently it's still not enough. If you remember gruden's been kind of firing these jabs about one encarta push the ball downfield more and that was a big thing last off season then all of sudden you look at the two thousand twenty numbers in cars average intended air yards. Were nearly two full yards deeper than two thousand nineteen. His completed air yards nearly one and a half yards deeper and he managed to push the down. The ball downfield more while also turning out the lowest adjusted interception rate in the league. And it's it's it's just never good enough for gruden. And so i kind of go back to when we discussed this hiring in the first place and gruden took this job and i think what i said then was it can work if gruden just focuses on the offense right. Find an innovative dc. Let him do his thing. Don't mess with them. And for the love of god don't fuck with the roster because we know he is just terrible at that. I mean we saw him absolutely decimate the bucks super bowl roster inside of twenty four months and he's really done the same thing here it's just a slew of baffling draft picks and paying average players more than their value to fill voids and really an over reliance on veterans and gruden to me is clueless when it comes to talent evaluation and finances and yet his hands are basically in the sauce on everything and really the scary part when you look at twenty twenty two todd and kind of the future. The raiders are top ten and both salary cap and draft capital. And there's an easy way to enhance both with car in the final year of his deal. But i think it's absolutely nuts to let gruden in this regime take another spin it spending and acquiring talent like they've proven they have no clue what they're doing. I was okay with with rebuilding and moving on from amari cooper in khalil mack. Right and the raiders. Basically from those deals got three first round picks a second round pick and a third rounder for those guys and then you sprinkle in all their own early picks on top of that and you look at that. Draft capital was turned into an. It's it's colton miller it's glenn farrell. It's josh jacobs. It's abraham it's our net and rugs. There's not one true. First round no doubt about it stuttered difference maker there you ended up with a serviceable left. Tackle a running back that lost carries towards the end of last season. And it's a devalue position you have a run setting edge and a guy that's lightning-fast in spandex. That's that's what you've basically acquired and all of that draft capital. And what's sad is you. Look the raiders. Offensively they've been pretty damn good two thousand nineteen finish sixth in success rate last season top ten again and if you have top ten offenses back to back years and you haven't sniffed the playoffs. Once in an era where offense translates to wins more than it ever has. That's a problem. But i think it kind of shows the larger point i've been making since gruden was hired. And he's just you know he's a good offense of mind. You can't question the hours. He pours into the to the game plants and the way he wants to set up play calls but he can't do anything else and he shouldn't be allowed to do anything else and there was an article that surfaced this week. Todd and it was from agents that wanted to remain anonymous but basically the first agents said gruden is one of the most dishonest coaches with players. They've ever seen and another agent was quoted as saying it's a disaster. The games passed him by and giving him full control as problematic. And so it's spot on right like you're now in year. Four of this rebuild. An oddsmakers peg you as a seven team your division and when you kind of look at this team the offensive line question marks. I think the most steady name along line is routine cognitive. Nidoish thirty eight and coming off a series achilles injury. Andre james is the projected starting center here but a hundred and sixteen snaps as a rookie in two thousand nineteen graded out the worst center in the league. He was two times worst in the second worst. Qualifying senators played one. Snap last season even if you look at his preseason work. He hasn't graded out a plus center against second and third stringers. Now i do think there could be hope for and pass protection. But i'm not comfortable on j james as my starting center denzel. Good is now the starting right guard. He's been reliable backup for years but he finally saw an expanded role last year. Almost a thousand snaps motions career. He's below average in both run in pass. Blocking colton. miller is solid. He's definitely improving his coming off as best season. But you know. His best season is the thirty six best tackle in the league last year. The raiders clearly reached on alex. Leatherwood what i do think especially in run blocking maybe rejuvenates. The raiders outside zone runs. But there's they're serious question. Marks here and the raiders project to face a top five schedule pass rushing defensive lines. Nobody truly knows what's going on. With the receiving core past darren waller and hunter renfro. What are you getting outside with brian. Words and henry rocks. And you follow this team closer than i do. Because they're in your backyard todd but for two years. All the hype in camp in practice has been brian. Edwards highlight type catches comparisons to moss. And terrell owens. Let's see translates when the lights are on. I mean he played in eleven games. Last year only had eleven catches we know henry. Rugs has an elite trait. The speed is undeniable. Kenny actually turn into a real receiver in year. Two of the full offseason. It's extremely difficult. I was looking at these numbers this morning to have a seventeen point three yard aid dot but only register one point three yards per outrun. It's it's lots of wind. Sprints and aimless running going on there from henry rug so far and so what we saw last year gruden basically went out and signed john brown as well and it's his insurance policy. Frogs can't do it. John brown basically becomes this year's nelson aguilar gruden's mind play calling in the red zone is an area that needs to improve when space shrunk gruden. Hasn't really done nearly the the same work that he was able to do. Between the twenty s. That's the one area. Where xs and os gruden's struggled a little bit raiders. Were the only top ten offense overall to finish bottom ten in the red zone. And we project the raiders to face a top three schedule of red zone. Defenses this season and it really doesn't stop there. Tie the raiders. Offense projects the phases schedule defense's top ten and overall efficiency passing defense. Pass rush defense and third down defense this year. Well i mean it's a good thing pain when you talk about the raiders. And what they did it off this off season completely retooled offensive line as you mentioned trading three extremely valuable pieces spending five and a half million dollars a year on a backup running back although everyone may or may not love the drake at this point knowing josh jacobs's trend it down. You mentioned john brown. You bring in willie snead just as though this team you know wants to try and go after certain pieces that may not fit into the greater overall agenda of what they want to accomplish. One player that. I don't think we touch and if we did. I apologize because i overlooked at their best player on the offense. Darren waller joined an elite class. A tight ends with one hundred catches and over eleven hundred yards one hundred seven catches last year third. Most in a season and nfl tight hissed at nfl. History amongst tight ends clearly. This offense has not been the issue pain because they have a defense. That's downright pathetic ranking thirtieth in the league last year in points per game allowed. And i was blown away. That the raiders have ranked in the bottom half and scoring defenses over the last eighteen seasons. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut from time to time and crack into the top fifteen. But that hasn't been the case. For the raiders. Gus bradley comes in and replace paul gunter. Who was fired week. Fourteen last year. The raiders gave a franchise worst four hundred seventy eight points last season. They allow thirty plus points in ten out of sixteen games dubious distinction that tied them with the detroit. Lions macro max crosby. That's been one of the fines that this team can hang. Its hat on defensively. But you mentioned draft capital. Jonathan abram graded out is one of the league's worst safeties damon net towards the bottom of the barrel as far as defensive backs are concerned cleland. Feral don't get me started there. But you do bring in a number of guys yawning gakugei. Hopefully he can help to passers. Casey hayward might have been one of the more unheralded off season signings at two and a half million dollars a year. A guy that. I think both of us high on for what we'd seen in for all the criticism about alex leatherwood being reached the first round. Maybe the raiders were able to write to ship a little bit taking trevon out. Tcu in the second round with some good roi. Potentially there but raiders defensively pain. They're not even going to be average. Can they get inside the top twenty five. This season for points per game point a blind squirrel. Finding a nut is a very good analogy for what transpired this weekend. By the way we can get into that at the end and then you can take your shot's no no it's fine. No hey defense for the rangers. This is our running running. I'm gonna let you take your shot at the end so you're gonna lose your opportunity but you can take the shots at the end. If you're if you so choose that was it. It was an inside joke that no one needed to know by. May i may share that info with sharon. Today you're sharing today. Sharing is caring. Twenty twenty one. So gus bradley. You know reunites with gruden. They spent the last few years of green stint and tampa together. I believe gus was the linebackers coach towards the end. There in two thousand six seven and eight before gruden got shit canned. You're looking at gus bradley's history here and to me it's not great. He was obviously credited. With devising the the cover three defense that seattle used all those years. And i think we've hit on that and how it doesn't really work unless you have an elite secondary that multiple and when you have the legion of boom great bought that talent level isn't commonplace for ninety nine point nine. Nine percent of secondaries both past and present and seattle didn't actually win a super bowl until after gus bradley left and then we saw bradley. Get hired in jacksonville. As the head coach he was there for four years from two thousand thirteen to two thousand. Sixteen his defenses finished. Thirtieth twenty-first twenty fifth and fifteenth and efficiency. The year after bradley got fired jackson. Shot the second and defensive efficiency and the following years when jaguars made the afc championship and then he gets a job with the chargers as their dc in two thousand seventeen and he inherited a unit that finished top ten inefficiency the year before he got there and he did a good job maintaining that level the next two years under his watch. Top ten and defensive efficiency believe tenth both years year one and year two then there was this massive drop off just fell off a cliff twenty fifth and defensive efficiency year three and twentieth in year four with the chargers defense. And obviously let go again. Now i do think there's likely year one boost here front for her. Gus in the raiders. Defense and it's not really hard to improve a unit that was twenty eighth in overall efficiency. Twenty six than early down defense. Twenty ninth in red zone defense. And they allowed a third down conversion rate. Eleven percent over expectation. Which is the worst in the lake. Sometimes a new voice is all it takes to improve horrific defense and make them below average. Todd now you start to get into some of the the players. It's you know. The raiders basically overspent on gok way to play the same position. They overspent thumb last off. Season carlin sleep and maybe one of those guys can generate a pass rush clown. Feral in year three has to improve as a pressure. Guy finished forty ninth in. Prp among qualifying edge rushers. That's basically a metric that factors in sacks hits hurries relative to how many times he rush the passer now for a regime. That stinks kind of piecing talent together and doesn't understand the word value when it comes to what they pay players are where they select players in the draft. I really do like the quinton. Jefferson signing at three and a half million finish top ten in pass west run rate among interior. Linemen back to back. Seasons you get salman thomas cheap. Because he's coming off the acl tear. I know casey hayward turns thirty two in. He's coming off his worse season as a pro but for two and a half million at premium position like corner. I think it's well we're taking a flyer to see if a word can return to his two thousand nineteen former graded up the fifth. Best corner among qualifiers only allowed fifty six percent targets to be caught. So i think that's interesting. You did see some growth from trayvon mullin in year two which is a good sign. Damon are net cannot play any worse than last year. He finished a hundred and thirty fifth out of one hundred and forty eight corners and adjusted yards allowed per covered snap. He was dealing with a hand injury. Dealt with a weird off season as a rookie. Even if he's bad. It's an upgrade. The other easy fix here is learn how to tackle right like be like stick somebody. The raiders were dead last allowing opponents to break. A hundred and forty nine tackles last season. Just learn how to tackle. And i think you improve defensively but really why. I think there's going to be some defensive improvement. Here is the schedule last year. The raiders played a top ten schedule of offenses. A top five schedule of passing a top five schedule of third-down offenses that all changes this season. We're projecting a bottom ten schedule of offenses passing offenses red zone offense and third down offense as todd. So i i do see a boost in defense of production here just from some of the names brought in a new voice and there is some. There is some talented pieces here. Hey let's see what the raiders can do. I mean this city would love a winner and they'll get behind him. I'm very curious what the atmosphere is like when they play their first ever home game regular season home game. That is with the legion stadium packed to the brim. That monday night against the baltimore ravens so be very interesting in terms of trying to monitor where they can't get lucky right. What sayings out you get. Lucky there for the raiders. Dob allowed bateman. Probably out. i mean you're getting baltimore's offense at rock-bottom let let's not sugarcoat it by any stretch of the imagination. Will it be enough for the raiders to get the win. Well that remains to be seen as they sit as four four and a half point dogs right now with that game. But for a raiders team. That may be trying to figure out exactly what they're gonna do going forward the quarterback position to a team. That's very much settled there with question marks everywhere else on the roster that would be the los angeles chargers arguably the most talked about team in this division not in the kansas city chiefs. They're priced at plus four ninety to win the division their win total sits at nine and a half. You do have to lay a buck thirty five to go under it. Fan duel sportsbook brands daily steps in replace anthony lynn. We make will get to your grade of that. Hire a minute but this is still a head coach. That five years ago was an assistant coach at john. Carroll not exactly alabama miami or anywhere else. We're all about taking large swings. Though when we talked about the rams you highlighted the fact that they didn't exactly play the most daunting schedule of opposing offenses. When you look at the chargers overall back to back losing records after compile a twelve and four record back in two thousand eighteen. They did close last season on fire winning their final four games. Twelve of sixteen games. They played a season ago. Decided by just one score and when you look at the chargers not coincidence that they've lost thirty one games by eight points or fewer over the last five seasons they will continue to chase after their first division title since two thousand nine and the reason for optimism of course starts at the quarterback position. We're just in. Herbert will enter his sophomore campaign. Optimism and hype are probably the two best describing words for the chargers right now and it kind of feels like an annual tradition and maybe this year i it comes to fruition brand new head coach brand new. Oh and joe lombardi. I think the hope is that those two guys along with justin. Herbert helped turn around some of the horrific coaching which led to horrible one. Score game results. I mean sixteen losses. The past two seasons by one score. A lot of that is coaching. Now there is some some poor luck sprinkled in there. Because you've had some bad injury luck you've had some bad turnover. Luck had bad field goal. Look i think that part of of the chargers improves joe. Lombardi is interesting as he's actually the nephew of vince. Lombardi and i think just about any coaches and upgrade over anthony lynn and we we know lombardi has some nice lineage. Not just the name. But he's not in this league for two years before both were in detroit. And in two thousand fifteen lombardi's final season he led the thirteenth most efficient offense. He had to one thousand yard receivers that year. He's also spent the last five years. Working under sean payton whose you know brilliant offensive line so i think there's going to be a boost to the chargers offense schematically and then if justin herbert can give you that year to bump. That we've seen from other quarterbacks like watson or mahomes even winston goff had some year to leaves than anything. The chargers have jane smith playoffs and we know her broke. Just about every rookie record completions touchdowns you just look at them. Obviously the size the mobility the arm strength. I think all kinds of lead us to believe that he's going to be a franchise type quarterback and maybe like the next young it guy and you love to see some of the underlying metrics digging into this. I mean herbert was electric last year. In situations where you wouldn't expect a rookie thrown in the fire to be really good. But he was also on third downs in terms of efficiency. Only brady rodgers. Mahomes josh allen and car were better on third down. He was an animal under pressure. So it kind of shows. This young kid was able to handle adversity and he delivered the fourth best efficiency. When pressured ninety nine passer rating seventy one percent adjusted completion percentage. Seven point six yards per. Pass attempt thirteen touchdowns two picks all under pressure. So that was awesome. What you also love to see from some of the underlying metrics is even though justin. Herbert is extremely mobile. He didn't really cheat the pocket and dump out early like we see. From a lot of quarterbacks he showed a willingness despite a poor offensive line that adam pressured on thirty seven percent of dropbox to kind of hang in the pocket and deliver from there his passing efficiency on throws made from within the pocket. It was six best among qualifying quarterbacks. Now that kind of leads me to. I don't wanna be negative here but you do wonder how much herbert can improve. Because you're going from a really good quarterback and you're one to like does improve like incrementally what is that even look like. I know there's probably going to be a lot of variants in some of those metrics. Right like when you're great on third downs you're great on fourth down degrade under pressure. Those are all typically areas that can regress. You're basically relying on joe lombardi to be dramatically better in scheme in play calling which can happen to help an offense that was twenty fourth in early down success rate under herbert. You know you need herbert to be better and make that year to leap. In situations that he'll probably be in most often which is throwing from clean pockets whereas passer rating was ninety. Seven in his overall efficiency was just about league average when he was kept clean so that was something that was a little concerning to me. And you know with this offensive line. I think you probably see a boost in herbert throwing from clean pockets. And that's probably a good area to address a little bit here for five new projected starters. They went out and spent on the best center in football on corey. Linzie it's possible. Rashawn slater's the next first round all world tackle that we see play for over a decade. He strong he runs like a tight. End is great and pass protection and get to the second level with ease in the run game brian. baga he's old but only played ten games last season. Let's see if he can stay healthy. Matt filer comes over from the steelers play left guard. He's been a plus left guard every single season of his career. He's better as a pass. Protector than run blocker. Right guard is a question. Mark with o'day there you know that's that's the question with the line is if blogging can't stay healthy and you have o'day there at at right guard then you'll probably have some issues on the right side but i think we're talking about you. Know chargers align that was thirty first in block win rate last year. Twenty nine then lying yards yards. This could be probably one of the most improved units in the nfl. You sprinkle in jared cook who is a fringe top. Ten tight end. I would say he was last year in yards per outrun news number two in eight dot among qualifying tight ends cooks. Has some nice versatility where you can kind of you know. Line him up inside in the slot or outside can do both those things. The schedule isn't really daunting. Either projecting a bottom five schedule of defenses. The easiest schedule of run defenses a below average schedule of past defenses. Third down defense in red zone. Defenses so in my mind. I'm thinking upgrade in scheming playcalling. Probably a tiny boost in cuba play huge upgrade. Eto line in a very manageable schedule of defenses. It's possible if all those things come to. Fruition todd the chargers kind of surge into that like four to eight range and overall efficiency when when the dust settles on the season. Can i play devil's advocate on one point some of these things when you look at the chargers and i'm sure over the course of seventeen games. Everything will be just fine. Are you surprised that they didn't play their entire. Starting offense at least for a series in preseason games. I know a lot of people out. There will look at the injury to j. k. Dobbins look at some of these other teams have gone through. And i know the emphasis has been placed on more of those you controlled practice environments but for me. It's still not a game situation when you talk about the offensive line and continuity familiarity a new scheme a quarterback that hasn't worked with these guys. I always feel like it's important to get some live reps in that game situation. Especially knowing who their week one opponent is facing arguably the best defensive line and all of football going across the country. I certainly think that's a question when you're talking about new head coach new. Oc a young quarterback learning a new system. But you gotta remember where brandon staley comes from. Right it's a good point. I mentioned i kind of mentioned when we did the. Nfc west podcast last week about this hiring process that mcveigh had with brennan. Staley last journey basically picked him up from the airport at four. Am in that meeting lasted twelve hours. And it's just too young innovative guys that hit it off and love each other and so he's seen what mcveigh's done for the last couple of seasons not playing any guys coming out like a house on fire offensively like the rams did last year so i'm sure that is what he is thinking about is also in year one. And you don't wanna get your franchise quarterback killed now. I also backup quarterback betting my starting quarter one hundred bucks and crypto tech field goals pull a joiner daniel sneaky sneaky guy looking for live reps out there. He saw austin stick kind of leading the charge for. Qb to and he's like well. How am i gonna make this roster. Maybe maybe if. I can get herbert to have an early season. Hamstring injury launching fifty yard field goals. That's that's going to be the way. I just wanna know honestly and i think about the movie war dogs that comes to mind where the to i mean Where they share. Jonah hill's character and i'm forgetting the other that's going to drive me nuts. They share an office. Do you think sean. Mcvay and brandon staley sharing stadium. We need to share an office and we need to keep the same office hours so we can compare notes because we're not in the same conference and at least continue to build that camaraderie between the two of us staying in one another's backyard. How dare you forget. Aaron rodgers running-mate miles teller teller. That's what it is there you go. I'm also a big fan of annandale armistice when she says pilose in that movie i think i fell in love and i believe my my ben affleck has at. Some point was was mingling with her. Which is he was in gambling news today. So there's lots of seven degrees of separation with kevin bacon going on here. There is a ton of interconnectedness in our sports betting community. That is for sure as you mentioned. Ben affleck being announced to headline a marketing campaign. We'll see how that particular campaign goes but differ discussion for a different day. We haven't addressed the chargers on the defensive side of the ball. This is a team. That loses some veterans in the form of casey hayward denzel perryman. Melvin ingram sean jenkins. I don't really think there's anybody that creates sleepless nights there knowing that you go out and you draft asante samuel junior to help fortify the secondary but more importantly the biggest addition will be hopefully be a healthy return of one of your beloved florida state. Seminoles enduro james who has missed twenty seven of a possible thirty two games but when he was out there first rookie season he was dynamic as anybody. And this is the chargers. Defense that allow twenty six point six points per game the most by the franchise since two thousand three they allowed a full touchdown or less though during their four game win streak to close things out problem for the chargers. Defense lately has been they just don't create takeaways. They have to be better in that particular department but when you look at the chargers on this side of the ball do they have stop unit. That's going to provide healthy complement to an offense with high ceiling. This is obviously the part of the team that everyone just assumes gonna be elite a higher brandon stale staley's kind of the the it defensive mind that's innovative and churned out. The fourth most efficient defense last year and it was a balanced defense top foreign efficiency against the run and pass and we saw the rams as those players kind of got familiar with the new system. They improve down the while. They waited out as the most efficient defense over the final sector of the season. And you do kind of have comparable talent in the sense that you know the chargers and rams have an elite presence along the defensive line in joey bosa and you have this elite versatile athlete in the secondary endure when james. And you're kind of making those comparisons to some of the guys. The rams have but i have questions and i'm kind of at that. Need to see it to believe it kind of thing. i know. Brennan staley's innovative. But nobody knows if he can lead the team and you mentioned. Some of his past ops outside linebackers coach two seasons ago. Nobody knows if staley is going to be willing to do things that are best for the team and not just as defense. That's something we talk about the time can we. Can we find a way when you talk about rapid career sense pain like a five year timeline for you and take you from podcast analyst extraordinary head coach of a national football league team. Do you think we can create that. Pathway i'm not even in the space. I wholeheartedly believe that i just decided to fly to vegas. Pitchy podcast and here we are. I'm i don't even consider myself in this space. So when i look at it staling. You're trying to like project ahead some of these things and it's we know these defensive-minded guys kind of are always like what makes my defense look best in. Maybe not what is best for the team. And you know you're gonna have these situations where it's like on fourth to from the opponents forty seven is staley gonna go for it because that's what's best for the team or is he going to punt because as his best for his defense. Nobody knows that. And you know we've kind of seen this even in the preseason like robert salah awesome really great guy. Preseason game against the packers. it's like. Hey we're gonna attempt a fifty five yard field goal outdoors instead of gopher and plus territory on fourth into we're gonna punt in a preseason game when we're trying to get zach wilson reps on fourth in an inch from midfield it's like it's all about events right so nobody truly knows what brennan stale is going to do in some of these situations. We don't know of opposing offenses are going to adapt to what's daily showed defensively for one season right when we broke down the rams defense last thursday we told you what brands daily defense faced. It was a shit sandwich at quarterback. I mean alex. Smith in wentz daniel jones and foles and kyle and nick mullins. How dare you. How dare you question the pedigree of that quarterback list. You just rattled off. I mean you still have sam darnold. it's it's too in his first career star and then we even kind of identified some of the positive situations on when the rams offense actually faced good. Or i'm sorry the when the rams defense faced good offense is on their schedule. It was at really poor times. I mean both seattle games that was after pete carroll basically just stripped the offense you had tampa before the bye week when motion and action. Rents were super low. And then you had kyle cuyler murray shoulder injury and the they face those. They faced the cardinals offense both after that injury. So i don't really. I don't really know what he did last year. In terms of. Like if this is sustainable. Now when you look at some of the jimmy's joe's past boatswain derwin james and you kind of mentioned even those guys have questions. I mean darwin's played five games. The last two seasons two of the last three seasons boasts started ten or less games now. What's what's past those two. You mentioned asante samuel. He's going to have to be a day. One impact starter to replace. Casey hayward kenneth murray has to make a year to leap. The talent for him is is off. The charges physical freak. He was twelfth among linebackers and tackles before the first down marker but he couldn't spell coverage he was targeted fifty two times last year gave up an eighty seven percent catch rate murray hill out a one thirteen passer rating coverage who's also the fourth worst linebacker in yards allowed per target in coverage among fifty. Nine qualifiers so hopefully the game slows down for him in year. Two with a full offseason. Chris harris junior probably should be chomping at the bit to plan. Brennan's staley's defense has a slot corner when you see the success. Slot corners have had with brandon staley and his mentor vic fangio harris thirty two but if he can return to two thousand eighteen forms only the chargers secondary doesn't have as many questions but aside from like boasts endure win and asante and murray and chris harris and maybe even lindahl joseph. You wonder where the rest of the help comes from year. Adderley hasn't proven to be an nfl starter. He wasn't good coverage last season. He had a nineteen percent. Ms tackle rate who's going to provide pass rush l. After bosa the word is no oh soo is projected starter opposite bosa. The only played thirty. Four percents naps last season. Let's see when his role gets expanded if he can keep up similar pressure rate. Michael davis as starting corner in this league scares me jerry tillery through two seasons. He's been a flat out bossed. Let's see if you're three. Different voice was staley. Maybe that gets him close to playing like a first round. Pick if the chargers are going to improve this year. It's going to be because their health. It's going to be because a couple of guys have bounced back years. It's going to be because you know brands. Daily proves that he is a whiz kid. Defensively and all of the people that believe in him margaret abi right. And you've got a couple of those three things with the schedule of opposing offenses that projects to be bottom five overall and against the pass. And if you can get those three things plus the poor schedule than i think. The chargers defense is inevitably going to improve here. This is the closest. I've been to a win. Total that. I haven't pull the trigger on all of this buzz. This momentum the energy and optimism around the chargers with somehow we're gonna push this thing to ten obviously didn't get there at nine and a half sheet under. I'm not quite sure. I'm gonna get myself to the window. But it's a team that. I clearly wanna watch. And i think there's gonna be some opportunity whether to bet on or against week to week and you highlighting some of those defensive issues if the offense continues to trend up. We'll make things interesting to see how they're priced accordingly. So i will say you're getting nine and a half now because the wise guys favorite team was hit and we saw chargers over nine money come into the market. It's very sharp and it feels like every time this year right around this time over the summer. All the wise guys are really high. On the chargers just hasn't come to fruition yet but you would be bucking some some very sharp money if you're looking to go under here it's why it's out to nine and a half now for sure and there's a lot of things i am asshole being one of them stubborn typically something that i try not to your to in this particular space for those folks that have more clout more dollars and more intel than i do. Perfect time to remind all of you. Our loyal listeners to follow on twitter at paine insider. I'm todd firm and you of course can follow me there as well. Most importantly follow the podcast at the board pod. All of the information you'll need to enter the bet. The board football available there follow the rules. Go ahead and sign up. We're inching ever so close to the two thousand mark. Wanna get to even double. That's tell your friends tell your family get everybody involved. It's our way of saying thank you for all the contributions you guys have made to the podcast over the years and can give back allowing you to match wits against one another vying for a season-long prize were weekly. Swag you wear with pride. No matter what fan do a sportsbook you choose to frequent during the course of the football season and pain. This is the point the show and it is the final preseason preview where we talk best bats and potential investments. That may not be out there. We've produced more than to be quite honest. I thought we were going to have going into the season. But i like the portfolio. We've been able to build for our listeners. Is there any others that you see that are worth at dabble before we get to talk about regular season games and those weekly investments more so than something that may take three to four months to try and pay dividends. let's go with a player. Prop the first one that we have given out. There was some things that i needed to see gets settled and ultimately that came to for wish in this week with the trade of gardner men shoe to the eagles. And based upon how urban meyer's offense is operated. Based upon how. Trevor lawrence has operated the clemson offense his legs. I would think are going to be a vital part to this offense. Let's go with his player. Prop over three and a half rushing touchdowns it's plus a dollar twenty five. I think also when you see. Ntn go down. We're going to need to see more from trevor lawrence's legs as a rookie. He will probably rely on those a little bit more than he should past the design stuff so i really liked that prop Trevor lawrence over three and a half rushing touchdowns plus twenty five especially behind that offensive line. He may be running for his life amongst other things but we do trust this offense scheme things up especially when they get in tight to try and take advantage of that skill set. Want to thank everybody. Who's been with us through the early portion of the season we know it is a labor of love beginning in early july. Encourage you guys again to go back and listen to the five power. five college. Football conference previews try and listen to those spat. Some numbers may be available. But i think a lot of those may be cooked but the information still perfect way to get you ready for the season. all eight. Divisional previews also was remiss earlier in the show wanted to announce the addition of a guest columnist. Who's going to be joining us for college. Football season support source analytics. You can read his debut article about coaches against the spread trends and some of the thought process. That goes behind that. We're going to try and take the discussion even further every week during college. Football season as we said a great opportunity to continue expanding this product. Line the content we create so any feedback. You guys can offer up is always welcome as we cater things accordingly. So pain college football week one on wednesday. You getting excited buddy amped for wednesday forty eight hours away. We will be back with week. One college football sound like faint enthusiasm but we'll take it nonetheless encourage. Everyone like always go. Fan duel dot com backslash. Bet the board great sign up. Bonuses in states where applicable arizona sports betting of the legal variety will be arriving for you just in time for football season and fan duel wants to be your preferred book. So please go there. Use our code and put yourself in a good spot to have the most profitable. Football season in recent memory for pain insider taught furman with a trevor lawrence over three and a half touchdown ticket in your pocket. We'll see you at the window. Thanks for listening to bet the board. You can catch todd and pain every monday. Wednesday and thursday during football season. Breaking down the biggest. Nfl band college football games and to make sure you don't miss penny free. Best bets. Subscribe to bet the board on itunes. Google play spotify or wherever. You listen to podcasts.

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Gambling guru, Todd Fuhrman

SI Media Podcast

46:46 min | 5 months ago

Gambling guru, Todd Fuhrman

"Embrace your wild side in fortnight chapter two season six primal in the aftermath of these zero crisis the zero point has been contained but reality is collapsed in the process. A mysterious pulse shot from the newly formed spire restoring a natural balance to the island in your fight for survival traverse primal battlegrounds hunt wildlife for food and craft weapons on the fly. The island has grown wild. So must you. If you know anything about fortnight you'll know that every season there are some insanely cool story map changes of the past few seasons. We've seen everything from the island. Flooding to the legendary black hole in this season. Zero point has been contained but reality collapsed in the process restoring natural balance to the island craft weapons home wildlife for food and do everything it takes to survive picking up the battle pass. Let you run wild with the likes of lara croft and teen titans raven jump into fortnight now to experience at all or go to f n dot g g slash season six fm dot org slash season. Six to see it. All welcome to the sports illustrated that media. Podcast i'm your host jimmy traina. Thank you so much for listening. If you are into the gambling world you will enjoy this podcast. Very much tied ferment. Former oddsmaker caesar's now covers the gambling. World we get into a lot of hardcore gambling stuff and not so hard core so to appeal everyone We get into what's going on with legalized gambling with each of the states. The importance of shopping around for line bad losses this season. What kind of losses are the worst. How sports have been impacted by this. Which sports have benefited the most talk about baseball and bedding. How baseball can sort of get helped by it. So we covered all wit firm in everything in the gambling world. Before we get todd last week andrew marsh and from the new york post john where we covered a potpourri of items in these sports news. Sports media news landscape. Paul pierce gymnasts bunch of things. They are two weeks edge. Wwe superstar just was in the main event russell three weeks ago. Great podcast with scott van pelt. If you missed any of those go into the archives and give those listen and please subscribe to the podcast all right. Let's get to this episode right now with todd furman and some gambling talk right joining me now. Gambling guru plenty of jobs used to be an odds maker which fascinates me. So maybe we'll get into that again but In this world where gambling is taking over snowing. Better really check in with from time to time and todd furman. Todd how are you. I'm doing very well. Jimmy just catching a little day baseball watching our beloved yankees chason early deficit against toronto blue jays. It's funny you say that. Because i was going to tweet this morning. I very little about sports anymore. Just because everyone twitter is an asshole. And i i disagree when just trying to have like a light fun thing and i was going to tweet like if you this year. Bet will the yankee score. I know in every game. You're probably very rich right now. They don't squawk i and they did today with the aaron judge moore but they never score. I it's very rare. And i don't know curious. Is that a bet that is offered on sites these days now the game so prevalent it a lot of spots you can find which team must work than game. Obviously you have to pay a substantial price for the road team. Because they're going to get a for trying to do so and then a one of the big betting markets. That's really growing in popularity for major league baseball as everyone gravitates towards this quick fix is will there be a run scored in the first inning. So it's amazing to see a lot of folks out there that are aggregating the data trying to figure out which pitchers vast yes. It's james paxton. The first guy that comes to mind a lot of people may of cash on him last season as a member of the yankees betting. Yes there would be a run in the first inning. And i think they were extremely disappointed when he was shell for the better part of this year at just one start with the mariners about the pittsburgh pirates. You're a team. Where typically their staff early on this season at course it a small sample size. They've been beaten around pretty good in the first innings up your betting. Yes run be squared in their games. You profit financement so speaking about willow run be scored. I want something totally crazy did. Now did you see all the videos. this wednesday after night. So this happened. Tuesday night before the reds giants game in san fran. Did you see the videos with joey. Votto and what happened You know what. I did not see the highlights. I saw a little bit of the buzz that was created. But i can only hope that it wasn't nearly as controversial as the ground swell. We saw corruption at in the wake of sunday night baseball with the braves phillies fiasco more lighthearted So here's how the story goes. It was in if you if you're listening to this and want videos checkout train of thoughts of from wednesday april fourteenth basically during batting practice. A fan was screaming at joey. Votto asking him if he thinks a ronald be scored in the first inning. The fan bet. No run in the first inning. And joey votto is trying to tell the family. This is not what he's interested in and he's trying to win the game and the fan keeps badgering him. This videos of the fan. Just badgering joey votto and they have back and forth because the fan wants no run in the first sitting what happens joey votto homers in the first inning and the guy loses his bet. It's it's really great. You gotta check out the videos. It honestly jimmy reminds me the video. That circulated with peter lonzo with the fan that you could hear in the background yelling about the over under and then he takes the ball yard but i think these encounters if players embrace them. It's going to be par for the course and his fans do it in a white hearted. Way i i can find an appreciation. It's the idiot that take to social media and decide they wanna berate or belittle eighteen and nineteen year old college kids because they lost a bet. I mean you. And i come from this game same school of thought on this. If you're betting that kind of money that reduces you to going after professional athletes are college guys scale things back and maybe find a different hobby That keep you from putting food on the table whether or not. You shouldn't be going after people on twitter. It's just so stupid but there's a for me. At least i think there's a big difference between the alonzo incident and the vodka one from this standpoint. The guy in the met game screams at alonzo. Like i need over nine runs while the lonzo is in the batter's box in the game is going on in alonzo never acknowledges the fan. Words vodka engaged the fan in this guy. I can see. I feel like i just screamed. I can see rob manfred seeing that video and saying to the players. Don't to the fans about betting please while their cameras all over the place You know alonzo was an innocent type of thing which was a great. Also but yeah. I'm glad you mentioned that one because that was good. Think we're going to get to that point where the commissioners are have to be cognizant of it and it's going to be uncharted territory as we talk about. The proliferation of legalized sports betting into a multitude of state. Hopefully in your backyard. Sooner rather than later as well. But i mean injury reports. They became a hotbed topic and clearly. These kinds of interactions are going to happen a little bit more especially we're fans are in close proximity to players regardless of the sport. So you mentioned the legalized gambling in my backyard. Which is new york where we're still. We still don't have it posted to happen but from everything. I hear it's not supposed to happen in a great way. My degenerate friend. Pd texts me everyday about how bad it's going to be. Let me ask you this. Where where do we stand now. How many states have it legalized now. We're up to eleven states. That have officially legalized in some capacity. And of course things are very different in states. Like montana where state lottery and it's more or less a license to steal without a gun with some of the prices that you have to bet into if you wanna do it. Any reputable manner compared to spots like tennessee and jersey. That in my opinion have done things the right way where they're making it a competitive market forcing the operator offer a product. That's going to bring people in from the grey areas and some of their corner bookmakers to do things legally and you mentioned york. I'm curious to see how this plays out. We know that politicians carry a ton of weight. But if you're gonna limit it to just a couple of operators and have an exorbitant tax rate someone is going to have to bear the brunt of it and you hope it's not the consumer because anybody who's been in this business knows how hardest outrun laying a dollar ten to make a dollar if you're going to jack up prices substantially higher the entry and the opportunity to actually make money and enjoy it. It essentially becomes a glorified lottery system or anything else. The exact quote my degenerative pd us. So here's what i want to do because you just gave us a really broad analysis i wanna get really specific and break it down for people who maybe aren't into gambling so let me do it from that so it's funny one of the questions. I wanted to ask you ed. Written down as a little note was which states are doing it the best. You mentioned tennessee in new jersey so it just explained to the listeners on a basic level. Why they're doing it the best. So tennessee is unique. It became the first state that just opened things up To online sports betting since there are no brick and mortar facilities. They had to do things a little bit differently. You didn't have to worry about partnering up with the casino whether it was with fortune. Five hundred company tribal operator to get your gaming license. If you pay the entry fee you could come in and operate so. Of course the bed. Mgm's the fan does in draftkings garbled up market share quickly. Tennessee is going through a little bit of a scandal with a smaller operator of action. Twenty four seven which had some money laundering issues that i think have largely been swept under the rug would never put my money in a slight called action. Twenty four seven the price for head shops at all of us us about ten twelve years ago. You squared up once once a week or thereabouts. But they've had their largest problems of folks are interested. I think the tennessee and did a bunch of articles to catch up. There's only bog you some of the minutia but jersey. When they i i mean you had you know the meadowlands partner up with a couple of different books and you had what were called skins that were available so if i was a gaming operator i had three or four skins that i could subsequently sell so be it was to draft kings to fan duel churchill downs or whatever the operators may be there for everybody had an access road to get the space now the ones that i'm curious about how they're going to do it is maryland just approved. Some legislation believe earlier this week. Or maybe it was at the tail end of last. And they claim that they're going to open up to as many as sixty different operators. I don't think they're sixty operators. Even out there again free market economics offer competitive product and throw whatever bonuses. Do you want at the plate ears. And that's going to pay dividends. That's the one thing about listed drives me bonkers is that you still have shops. That are gouging players. Because they just don't understand the math behind it to people what you mean by gouging. The players explain that generally accepted in the sports betting space said spin for years that you put up one dollar and ten cents if you want a better football game to make a dollar. So regardless of the game Hey you wanna bet the jets versus giants. The giants are four point favorite. You put one hundred ten to win one hundred if you like the favourite same way on the other side and that translates roughly two historical hold for sports books about five percent and what that means the books take on five cents on every dollar if they assume that the book is completely balanced which we know is a little bit of a fallacy. Because it's never fifty fifty in terms of tickets or money what you're seeing for. Some operators now is that they're adding pennies here or there and you know minus a dollar twelve or minus dollar thirteen and to a customer. That's only betting to win ten bucks. It really doesn't matter to that thirteen to win. Ten isn't fundamentally different than the eleven to win ten but if you extrapolate that out not to get again too much into the math in the weeds the sensitivity analysis says the book can make a substantial fortune by doing that repeating the transactions over and over again and it reminds me off for those folks in pop culture of the movie office space where they talk about rounding those pennies at the end of the accounts. Oh no one's gonna notice a penny here there and then all of a sudden they realized that there's nine figure balances that they then have to give back to the company so when you're looking for a product out there you always want to try and find a dollar ten to win a dollar as your standard operating procedure on some books will do reduce juice. But it's extremely rare l'egalite space and i think that's who were headed until the consumer understand. Exactly you know what him or her. I entitled to as far as competitive balance. you're gonna see look to take advantage. And that's the unfortunate reality. We were in a given. How new the space julia. I don't wanna put you on the spot and you don't know it but i'm just curious. Do you know the breakdown with the eleven states. that are legalized. How many have more than one operator. And how many just have one outbreak. I talked to my knowledge. The only states that have one operator. I believe oregon is run by the state so they have a state lottery. System of montana is another one. That's the same way in dc other than that. Everyone else has multiple operators that are there some in varying fashions whether it's in nevada model whether it's the completely online model like tennessee or situation that's brewing in the state of illinois where they've eliminated remote registration. Which of course has strong political undertones. The reason that took place where you have to physically go into a sportsbook to sign up for your account but you're able to Fund the account subsquently thereafter. Why are they doing that so they did that. At there's there's a lot of political ties. They're so. Originally they repeal the governor pritzker because of covid protocol said. Hey look we don't want people to congregate in casinos. We wanna make it available for people to be deposit remotely. Do think safely. I think this is some of the casino operators in some of the stronger entities. They're pushing that. They feel if they can get bodies into their casinos whether it be bet rivers whether it be you know some of the other spots throughout the state that they can take a few extra dollars from a player may plunk down fifty to one hundred bucks plan. Blackjack eat in a restaurant. I think it's shortsighted but clearly there are some folks that want to help us. Some of the land based casinos have a leg up over the draftkings fan. Duels that may only have sportsbooks available in more remote locations. Amazing that independent the the scamming so that people could go into the casino instead of letting them sign up online. So i asked you. The states with one operates at oregon montana. Dc and that's what's going on here in new york as they think it's going to be one operator. If i'm not mistaken. The government basically last check us to of but still at the same time. I mean if you're only gonna have limited operators it allows any of them to create a monopoly. I mean h have access to a variety of might've been Other any other downsize to stay having one operator besides the juice on the betting odds. Or the other downsides. I mean that's gonna be the biggest thing because they don't have to worry about competition so especially if you wanna bet on local teams Then you have no recourse. I mean you're always going to pay a premium and some states a little bit different in terms of what you can and can't bet as far as college teams are concerned. But i mean for example if you're in the state of montana and you find yourself to be a big montana grizzlies football fan. There's no chance that you're going to get a fair number on any of those particular games up even with some of the pro teams. That are the case. I mean you can look at the los angeles dodgers will be the perfect illustration a market price on them may be more than that minus two forty to fifty range but at my customer can't shop and i know they're gonna use it as a poorly lagging and every single bet. I'm gonna jacket number up. And i expected to pay a premium for some of those higher profile public teams. Yeah so if you're someone who wants a wager you wanna have multiple operators so you can shop around for the best line. It's amazing to me like new york wouldn't allow draft kings fan dole. And you know. I mean especially when new york i mean. It's amazing to me that when i see the stats every month at the state. That's making the most money off. Legalized gambling his jersey. Think new york would just copy it and do. The same thing makes no sense. You know. that's the whole thing. That's mind boggling to me because you look at the population density. I mean a folks are happy with the product being offered in new york. How tough is it to drive into jersey especially on the nfl. Sunday when you're talking about filling metlife stadium with jets and giant fans. I'm not gonna bet the game if i'm in manhattan. I'm gonna wait till i'm in jersey and use those books to shop around for price. So i can get it if you're on an island if you're hawaii and there's nobody else that you're worried about. Where folks that live inside your state can go to try and becky games. Sure i guess you can offer something. That's a little bit more discouraging for the players shop around but for new york and everyone that lives in any of the five boroughs. If you're serious about it get on a train. You take the patron go to hoboken and sit there and watch games all day a college football saturday instead of saying you know midtown to watch games and lose some of the opportunity shop for the best numbers yes. I've i've been in gambling. Hell for the last. I guess football season because for fifteen seventeen years. I used five times. That was the site i used. I got. I always got paid out. I want to get paid out. So i never had an issue with them. And then they closed up shop basically in the united states. I guess i don't know the owners were doing all sorts of areas things Lot of malfeasance. Fear an office fan so they had to shut down in the us so that a search for a place to play and of course. It's not legal here in new york. So i couldn't go to draft kings fan bill and i use bed online dot. Ag which was fine. No issues there. And i dabbled with vodka and i liked bo. Vodka like interface in ease of betting. But then i realized this. Because i'm an idiot. The only way vodka pays out is bitcoin. Now i understand. Bitcoin is all the rage and people want bitcoin. I would like cash cheque. Money order back to my credit card. I don't want bitcoin. i want american dollars. And that's an issue so no matter i. It's amazing how difficult it was. Easier for me to gamble fifteen twenty years ago with pinnacle and there's an than it is now when it's supposed to be it's crazy. I feel like it's harder now. Yeah i mean. I think back to some of my first experiences in the space in thirteen or fourteen years old sneaking off to the local currency exchange sending money orders for a couple of hundred bucks which is a lot of money. Hold on hold on. Hold on hold on. You are sending money orders at thirteen years old. Jimmy you're working at a pool making four dollars and twenty five cents. An hour cleaning bathrooms are slowing in slices of pizza. During the summer. You have to try and find a way to get your action fix for football. What sports betting. Thirteen years old all. I was betting mainly nfl Mainly nfl back. Then we did have a on campus bookie. I guess we even want to call that in the junior high so you know he would take twenty dollars was as max bat at the usa today or the chicago tribune at the time. Flip through it in study hall and you'd have to find him just. You didn't have cell phones or anything like that. You had to find him before the end of the day. And i mean i think the first two bets i ever made with him. I bet a big monday college basketball game which back at the time in those games tipped off at twelve eastern in the mountain west at hockey game. But when you wanted to go a little bit more. Legitimate we use the term loosely. You know you had a wire. Money to a caribbean country. That you couldn't even find out a man. That's what i was doing with five times. Yup i would send money orders but they would always pay me out so to me like you know. We talked so much about finding the best line in the best juice. Aaron judge just hit his second home. Run of the day that you go But for me it was always about what i wonder about the payout situation. That's what always you know and you know i-. Bitcoin is not a way to pay degenerate. Gamblers we want. I'm sure you probably want bitcoin. I've seen your tweets the option. Give me the option to on bitcoin. You want regular monte. Take the regular money. It's tougher and tougher. And i think that's why you know any of these states. That are moving the route of legalization if they offer competitive product are going to provide a service in an opportunity for their players that you can't get in the offshore ruled that you could have ten twelve years ago and it. It's a game changer. But at the same time you want to see them at least give you a little bit of value an opportunity of bang for your buck instead of going. Hey no because we're all giving you a service and you can trust each payment and everything else you have to put up a dollar fifteen to make a dollar. I mean you just can't outrun that math standard austin would in your mind. Which sport do you think has benefited the most from legalized gambling. If there is one you know. It's tough to say. Because i look at the four major sports and i don't think any of them have fundamentally changed in terms of their viewership. We know numbers. Were down for the nfl. The superbowl wasn't anywhere. Close to what we've seen in the past but people are going to bet on football on no matter what you did to provide obstacles or restrictions in that regard. I honestly think baseball can be the biggest beneficiary from it. Because you're talking about not having a whole lot of competition especially during the slower summer months this year. The anomaly because i think the nba playoffs go into late july. Or whenever the hell. They're going to manage that up. But you're talking about you know once the nba and the nhl wrap up and maybe a little bit of horse racing you know major league. Baseball becomes a standalone entity from late. June through the dog days of summer when you're talking about first inning. Will there be a run score. I five inning strikeout. Props that major league baseball has a huge six week window. That if they really wanted to make a major push that they could keep all of those gamblers who might go and normally we take summers off fully engaged. Find different ways to bonus and that's part of why you've seen you know the major league baseball go with digital show that will focus a little bit on gambling shirt to incorporate some dfs components. But i think that's a sport can do it one sport that i can speak to that. I know is openly embraced in his trying. To figure ways out is actually nascar. I've had extensive conversations with some of the folks there. I've covered the sport for the last handful years and it was really a niche for me but they know that most casual fans aren't going to tune in and watch a race for three and a half to four hours they have to find other ways to try and get them involved. And whether it's betting on the outright market or betting head to head matchups or anything else that's out there stage race stage racing to take advantage of folks to get them involved for a couple hours and all of a sudden you find fan was watching a race for ten minutes starts watching for twenty starts walking for an hour and suddenly can't leave his her tv every saturday or sunday for thirty six races during the year. There's a thousand reasons. Why protecting your home matters to you. You know for me. It's about not having that feeling of having your house robbed or people taking your stuff that happened to me. When i was a kid i was in high school. We had our house robbed. And i remember that and now i do everything i can to protect my home because it's important to never have that feeling again. Ring has security products for every corner of your home inside and out best of all you can see it all in one simple app with ring. 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It's funny you mentioned horse racing so over the weekend. Had a buddy over for a little barbecue Did a little small gathering at one point. We we were playing trivia tribute pursuit. And we weren't really playing. We were just going through some questions. Now this trivial pursuit game. That i have is probably from like the late eighties old. The original trivial pursuit in the blue box and one of the questions for the sports category was what is the most bet on sport in america and the answer was horse racing. Now like i said this was prob. This game was probably from the late eighties. Is that still true today. you know. i think it's a reach but when you look at all the numbers that are out there horse racing just because of volume of events Has a little bit more of an inside track than some of the other sports. That are out there. But as far as the level of importance placed on horse racing for the sportsbooks in the state of nevada it was more or less an afterthought i mean we did it for our customers when i was at caesar's as a courtesy above all else the nice part about horse racing for the house in the pair mutual pool. You don't have to worry about booking any of it because you're collecting eighteen to twenty cents on the dollar for every dollar that goes into circulation. Unlike sports where you're matching wits against the individual. The mutual pool takes care of itself. But that's part of the reason though that you've seen horse racing decline some not just because in popularity but even the old timers that did this forever. The takeout is just so hard to overcome so for a lot of the guys that would sit in the ot bees. Or if you go through local casinos out here in vegas. On a tuesday or wednesday when they're in the third race at delaware arcor gulfstream. These guys can't beat the math again. They cannot run the numbers so horse racing his really fallen off. Well of course the buzz and a couple of weeks for the kentucky derby and if we have a trip crown candidate as we head to belmont. Then horse racing captivates all of us for a month but in reality it truly takes a back seat to everything else Mainly because it's just not accessible for some of that new age gambler coming up through the ranks interesting. Now you mentioned at the top that you used to be an oddsmaker what what casino. You're not making for again. I always forget. Oh no problem. Also houses caesars. Entertainment broken in the corporate finance side and then learn the sports trade simultaneously before i made a full migration over that world. Do you miss it at all. would you ever see yourself going back to it. Would you wanna do it again. I miss some of the high energy days. I miss being behind the counter during the thursday and friday of march madness. I miss being buying the counter on super bowl sunday and seeing the energy that comes through the book. I don't miss it for getaway. Baseball on july fifteenth on wednesday. Where you're hoping that you can get a couple of bats are worth a damn on. The marlins brewers and i don't miss filling out the paperwork. That was a lot more extensive in the less glorious portion of it of mature odds making standpoint. I think the books are a lot different. I mean back in the day jimmy we. We had a set numbers we had to make sure the people had their assigned seats. We had to make sure that we were given breaks to our ticket writers so for some of my colleagues now that their primary job set numbers monitor the bets. That are coming in. They seem new joy to heck of a lot more because less interaction with customers but for the right opportunity somewhere down the road. I would shy away from going back but definitely a lot nicer being your own boss talking about games not having a set numbers on everything from wnba data third-division turkish soccer right. But do you keep up now in your post. Oddsmaker life though. Do you check in and see like money was better than the masters how much money was spent on the tournament. We do you keep up with all that stuff and if so tell me how the masters tournament of this year you know. I talked to a lot of the guys. The exact numbers trying read some of the articles. that are out there for public circulation. I mean there are some great guys to cover. The industry patrick. Everson of dot com does a great job. David amedee spn. Those guys will make sure that they share whatever numbers they can't off from folks that are out there masters numbers i can't speak to you haven't had a chance to walk. Gather all my intel there but the ncaa tournament definitely right up there in terms of what you would expect as far as betting handle in popularity. It's crazy when you look at the tournament and of course you're talking substantially more games in the super bowl but that's a bigger betting event on the calendar. You take the full three weeks. Then what you'll see wagered on the super bowl because people can roll over their money and we can only hope the next year we're going to see crowded sportsbooks again and one hundred percent capacity people. They're taking their money from the first four games. They're rolling the early session on thursday and they're not gonna stop until basketball shut down in its sunday night and what that nine o'clock eastern time slot that my colleagues at cbs. Love to put out there for some of those young children. Young topper from being able to watch the entire round thirty two full. It is funny it shows you. It shows you how degenerate this country is because nobody anymore. Nobody watches college. Basketball at all during the regular season and tournament comes in. It's like one of the biggest betting events of the year. It's actually amusing that you know it. I mean i fall into that same boat. I mean we spend so much time for a lot of the things that i'm associated with covering the nfl and college football once that kind of winds down in early february. Then i'll pivot. I have guys that are heck of a lot sharper in college basketball. That feed me information so i can keep up you know. I'll watch games with a passing interest your january and february but nobody wants to talk about it in the media landscape until you get into march even in running february. It's an afterthought in this year because you a lot of the big boys weren't relevant gonzaga in baylor don't become national stories is unfortunate. That sounds kentucky. duke michigan state in those perennial powers. Aren't there. It hurts the college basketball brand. And i think as we continue to see the advent of some of these other leagues. Whether it's know the pay players more money or some of these other prep showcases. You'll we're going to continue to see some of that deterioration of college basketball too. Far cry from the old days when my dad couldn't be removed from the tv watching the big east tournament. Because you knew all those guys we're going to feature prominently. mba rosters following year. The amount of friends they had told me they watch one second college best that she had been filled out a bracket was was remarkable. But again my friends have some issues. One of the things. I i say. I'm curious if you see it or if it's just my imagination. But i do feel like one of the things that's really growing. It are the futures in the props. You mentioned baseball is a sport that can maybe with with with the sports betting you bet. Al mvp mvp and that could keep you into it all season. You know how many home runs over under this guy is gonna hit There are a lot of ways betting actual where you can you know. Keep your interest in baseball because of the props what are the other props getting bigger and bigger or is that just my imagination. No it's not your imagination. At all and a lot of credit goes to oddsmakers that have been forced out of their shell be more creative and offer those extensive betting markets. Because years ago. You're right you couldn't find you know. Al mvp nl mvp. You couldn't find. Al cy young. Nl cy young. It's maybe later in the year. You talk about over. Under batting average hits stolen bases home runs. who will lead the league in home runs. Division odds books are done. I don't interrupt you can also what's new to you can bet who's going to win a division during the season yet where i remember. Listen opening day came. That was shut down. That was it was overdone with now. On any day of the year you can go out there and but it was about the emily's etc five seven years ago jimmy and you'd be talking about like you said you'd be able to bet that before the season started and a lot of bolts then reopened updated division odds right around the all star race. You'd get a couple of days there but it wasn't something that you could bet every single day and i think it's just trying to find that churn and burn. Keep people engaged. Give them an opportunity to bet on their favorite teams but along those same lines. I think what's really grown. As far as the market and part of it is because the media spends a lot more time talking about it it's created awareness is windows. I mean win. Totals for years catered only to the sharpest knife sharp betters and so you would actually go through the process during the summer months hang. Nfl win totals in early august. And you would dread the experience because you knew there was a game. That was even a team. That was even a half game off. You're gonna get absolutely obliterated how quickly you could move that number forgotten. We're going to go shop around town whether they were. Scalping bryce with you bending over one side under at another book our just taking full advantage. Now i mean. We don't even know the nfl schedule. We know the list of opponents and books are all coming out with their windows already because they want to give people a chance that they know that the new cycle demands it. And i think it's just fascinating to kind of see how all of this stuff is coming to light over. The last three to five years Where college football games of the year coming out earlier and earlier. I mean last year for fox. Bet i mean we push to get those out during the pandemic people needed things to talk about so here. We are speculating. Before these teams even had spring practice and then a lot of. Didn't you know trying to put out numbers on georgia alabama hoping that you could elicit bats and that people wanted to try and get involved six months before to- ever met leather and a game truly took place. It's only been two weeks. Have we seen any early trends with. Mlb anything that stand out or nothing. You know you've seen a couple individuals moving. The player props market on tyler glass prices come down substantially amid his hot. Start to win the cy young one of the other big moves. That was out there. And i think he's pitching years pitching right now for. The brewers corbin burns through his first couple of start. You've seen his number offer. Ns cy young and the lead the league in strikeouts come down. So that's the one thing early on. Bookmakers are forced to overreact. To how some of these guys perform baseballwise over the first couple of weeks whereas better never want overreact bookmakers half to because we know that these hot streaks can sometimes carry three starts into fifteen starts and suddenly a guy burst onto the scene. And we've seen year in year out especially odds to win the home run. You know lead. The league in home runs. It's not the mike trout and aaron. Judge's that when it's the look void that get off often. Suddenly they just can't be stopped so books have to stay proactive their You can find a little bit value for a lot of those words for player that starts off. Maybe there's another guy's odds at drift out and you can take full advantage. I this has been one of my pet peeves and then i. I've said this a million times but they're on twitter. Micom you know football betting has become very very dicey now because of the extra point because they moved it back. There's extra points missed. In every game the number gets thrown off and everything goes haywire with teams chasing it and now baseball. It's not as drastic. But i almost had a little problem yesterday because i was perusing lines at night looking for nike to bet. And i see mets phillies. It was nola against Marcus stroman total was five and a half. And i'm like okay. Listen i know you know. Noah's good omens okay. I've never seen a total five and a half what's going on totally forgetting that. It's the second game of a doubleheader in those games are only seven innings. I mean even if you're into this there's still always things that you know. You really need to stay on top of things. It's not something you can do casually especially now harder handicap like you said for rule changes everything else that's going on and the other thing that can come back to kick in the nuts with some of those seven doubleheaders. Is you have a game. That's one one going into extra innings and suddenly. We're starting with a runner. On second base wonder five and a half so a game that was a stone cold winter to start. Suddenly you're very much Involved in a heavy duty sweat. And i'll be honest. I mean when it comes to some of the seven inning games there guy significantly sharper with numbers in the math. In me i won't even handicap him. Because i think it changes some of the dynamics that we've grown accustomed to and i can tell you firsthand that we've gotten plenty arguments for a longstanding fantasy baseball league that somehow a complete game shutout goes seven innings should not count the exact same game shutout that goes nine innings but to no avail. End my colleagues. Cvs haven't been able to try to just they're scoring system for it. Accordingly yet makes me so happy. I stopped playing fantasy sports for five years ago. Give me give me your worst lost this year in twenty twenty one. Oh not monetarily. I mean the scott van pelt bed. Beat i'm trying to think through. And i would probably say just as it happened. Recently we all fall victim to recency bias. had a little bit under money in alabama and ucla A game that had no business going over the total and of course you find a three that goes down as time expires for about thirty five feet out and then the rest is history. But i mean i could be mon nascar losses until you're blue in the face and people go. We don't really give a damn about any of that stuff. But i wanna go glass half full. Because i had a master's bet that worked out well for me this past weekend. Bet zander shaw flea in the fourth round head to head against decky mazzi yom. So that looked dead and buried when zander double bogeys early on in the round then all of a sudden he gets white hot strings together. Four birdies and we're talking about having a competitive finished. She got a two stroke lead there then he triple sixteen going in the drink. And you're figuring going into eighteen that there's no shot worse cases to push decky. Plays it sock. Rick support for about four feet so i wanna glass half loved. Ones talk about bad. Beats me every now and again the gambling gods can smile on you so i felt fortunate to be able to steal at but on sunday. Not a hockey guy. But i watched van pelt sped beats from this week and there was a game that ended up going on an empty netter. That's got to be such a sickening feeling. I've been there a ton. And i think i tweeted about it had to be was a san jose sharks game and i didn't have any money on it so i don't remember who they were playing. I think there were three. Goals scored in the final twelve seconds or two goals scored. But yeah you wanna talk about losing an over under bet on an empty netter especially as team start to pull their goalie with five or six minutes to go. I mean it's downright lethal. What do you. What do you think's worse. Losing a bet. On an empty netter losing it on like the three quarters court heave at the buzzer or is equivalent. I would say an empty netter. And the reason i say that is because basketball every now and again you at least know you're going to have to dodge that bullet you know that will be an inbound pass with a couple of seconds and you're going to see that shot. We've all lived through hockey. It can be as simple as their six seconds to go in a game. A player loses possession of the puck in the corner and get defense new just flings the puck at the empty net. She go from having a surefire winner to watching that puck of two hundred plus feet in june empty net. And you know you're completely defenseless. The worst is though in the camera. Guy can't move the camera fast enough. And you're hoping that the puck ricochets off the boards and suddenly you see the puck Sliding across the goal line. And this is what i sometimes for betting unders and one of my one of my friends in the industry. Dan o'toole tells me the time. You're an idiot anytime you want. A bet and under and unfortunately i'm a glutton for punishment there is something about the empty netter where the puck is just slowly gliding towards the empty net. And you see your life flashing before your eyes and the l. comes. It reminds me of a lot of those gambling. Movies where You're talking about through. Let we all know. Slow it down your one the ball bounce around hoping that you can land your number that you just watch it in like a slow car wreck. You're hoping that that puck hits. The post lies the blue paint And dozen end up in the net but for every bad beat you have as sports. You'll evidently have one or two workout in your favorite. But it's amazing how the human brain only remembers all the negatives you never wanna remember the ones that work out in your favor. He'd rather I bloody murder and file and things go against you. Absolutely you just said relate you just man i miss i miss. Playing roulette have gone to a casino. Obviously his of the pandemic and a while. I miss that that rush when that little white ball is spinning man. There is an adrenalin rush. With that i cannot describe but it's there it's absolutely there has nothing to do with gambling. i did today in my column about the best sports quote of all time. It came off of the fact that a little background. If anyone hasn't seen it on. Tuesday night timberwolves guard. Anthony edwards guest gets asked what he thinks about. Alex rodriguez becoming an owner of the. He's not going to be the owner. He's going to be one of those. You know investor on a tight. Whatever but i guess about arab coming onto the symbols and anthony edwards says that he's never heard of alex. Rodriguez in what i think is just a room. I mean i wish a report would have followed up and said j.lo's boyfriend to see if that would have triggered his brain so off of that. In train of thoughts on wednesday. I did a whole thing about the sports of all time and i mean i got a couple of thousand responses from people which were amazing so i wanna get your favorite Sports quotes a couple of them. If you have them off the top before you quickly to. I gave that of my personal favorites One was from colby when he said. I want an mvp with smush parker and kwami brown on my team. I was shooting forty five times a game. What was i supposed to pass it to chris memo crack brown which is just a classic kobe quote and then the other one is when bill parcells coach of the patriots. The trainer tells them that the kicker is injured and bill says well. I don't need them to play. I just need them to kick which is a phenomenal quote from bill. Parcell so just curious if you have any one. two three. Sports quotes that off the top of your favorites low-hanging fruit has to be. You know jim mora talking about the play offs. And you know his response there In the end that press conference. I mean is right up there along the same lines white singletary going bonkers in a similar capacity since so those are up there one in the nhl app ninety nine percents year exchanges between jeremy roenick and patrick wa back in the day and wasps says no. I can't hear him. I got my stanley cup rings in my ear so that one stands out that was submitted in the column. Yes and that was a good. I mean that that's outstanding. And i mean when you look for other examples that are out there. I mean they're scott. There's just so many the the one that i always forget the bucks coach. I guess from the seven days what do you think about your teams execution. I'm in favor of it isn't amid favereau. Good there is a a you know with another one. That i had heard from jimmy johnson back in the day when in cut a player on his roster for falling asleep in the team meeting and i believe the report. I'm going to butcher this but a team reporter asked you know. What would you have done. Treatment fell asleep in a team meeting. Jimmy's response was to make sure i get him a pillow and that he gets a good night class. Yeah that's another one. That's up there but all the ones that just come spontaneously from these guys impressed markets Incredible and anthony edwards. I mean don't you think if you play for the team at least gonna google potentially who one of the minority owners is i jimmy. There was a video circulating. That talked where edwards was asked about. How good he was playing baseball and said that he could have gone to. The rose is a baseball player. I know alex rodriguez is. If you think you're going to ultimately have a career major league baseball amazing it's amazing the ghetto good or the segment. We go kids these days. They just have no wonder. And here's the thing. You can't just read the anthony edwards quote. You have to see the video. It's so great because he could not possibly care. Less about who alex rodriguez. there was. No faking it or anything else. He was suppose stylist hair. Despite the nut. I appreciate you coming on and give us some updates on the gambling world. Hopefully new york get something soon here just as an option in you know in addition to whatever i have to legally and we become a real state here i mean. Wyoming and south dakota have legalized. Gambling in new york doesn't just pathetic fingers crossed. Every state comes to its senses in the ones that do End up approving bills. Do so in the right manner. We can talk about a full proliferation of betting options. That if you wanna bet on your favorite book regardless of what it is to be able to take full advantage shop around for lines to get the best number because we know it's hard enough to win in this business with one shop. Let alone non with multiple shops. Let alone if you only have one or two options out there. That's drip hi. Todd thanks a lot. I appreciate it and good luck with the wages. Always a pleasure jimmy. Thanks all right. My thanks to todd. Furman sure if you're gamble you enjoyed that conversation. I know i did if you missed. Any recent episodes of the media. Podcast feel free to go into the archives and check those out. If you're into sports media news we covered a ton of it with andrew marsh and in the new york post last week. Wwe superstar edge was on the podcast two weeks ago. He just came out of the main event of wrestlemania three weeks ago. Great pod with espn scott van pelt. If you missed any of those give those listen and please subscribe to the sl media. Podcast you can rate and review as well always helps all right. That wraps it up. We'll see you next week right here. Stay safe and take off.

baseball todd furman joey votto new york tennessee football alonzo Nfl montana Votto jimmy traina oddsmaker caesar andrew marsh the new york post jersey aaron judge moore james paxton reds giants peter lonzo lonzo
SUPER BOWL LIV: Todd Fuhrman

Arrowhead Pride

13:01 min | 1 year ago

SUPER BOWL LIV: Todd Fuhrman

"The this episode is brought to you by Ziprecruiter. Weren't a brand new year. The perfect time to think about growing your business with Ziprecruiter ziprecruiter's powerful matching technology analogies. Scans thousands of resumes to help you find candidates with the right experience for Your Business. ziprecruiter is so effective that four out of five employers get a quality quality candidate through the site within the first day. Try ziprecruiter right now for free at ZIPRECRUITER DOT COM Slash Fox. That's ZIPRECRUITER DOT COM at Slash v O x ziprecruiter dot com slash box ziprecruiter. The smartest way to hire You're listening to SP nation at the super bowl. We are very pleased to be joined. Now by somebody that can probably Give us some is on what color shirts will wear and all sorts of different things from F S. One Todd Firm and talk happy Miami. You know what it's always great to be here for all these festivities and see a lot of faces in media and as gambling continues to grow it's bigger and better opportunities than I never thought would have been around this industry. Maybe as recently as three to five years ago I know that you really dominate this industry. But are you ever surprised at the types of products that come at. I mean 'cause I saw there was an odd. aww Wasn't you guys but about Pat mahomes brother and how many tick Tock C would put out. It's crazy honestly. I mean having worked in the offshore world in the past and now working for Fox bet that helping them to try and create some of the unique markets. That are out there. You're only really limited by your creativity. Of course. There are some gaming regulations depending on the various jurisdictions. All but when you look at a state like Indiana that approved gatorade color. It's something I never would have dreamed of. When I was behind the counter at Caesar's lengthened national anthem continues to grow in popularity? And then it's always the hundred million dollar our question. Well who's got the official timing. How do we know exactly how to grade these so for someone who used to be an oddsmaker responsible for creating numbers? It's a lot easier being on the other side of the counter trying to find a weakness and be able to pick these numbers apart. What's your favorite you know? What is it the national anthem? Is it you know how many cut aways to Zahle if the Patriots in the superbowl. I mean what's what's your oh to. The entertainment. Props are always great ones. That will surround the broadcast trying. Get people engage right from the start. I mean we I feel like Fox has thirteen hours of pre game coverage coverage and some of those bats will get decided long before the players are even getting to the locker room. I song that gets played at halftime. No there was a huge debate and drama and controversy all with coldplay a few years ago in terms of which particular batch should have been paid out so those start to create a lot of buzz. And what's always interesting being in and around the space base is that you look at people that are trying to find an edge so for media types that are around the rehearsals there around some of the acts that you know what I think we have an inside track on and what's available but that's a big reason that you can't find some of those novelty props at regulated sports books. So how much science would you say it goes into all of this maybe science. It's not that I wear now. There's talk about this a lot on marketing with clay cousin sal and everything. How much of it is how much is is I guess? Educated is better way to put it. You'd be amazed at the amount of hours. There's that automakers spend watching youtube videos to try and figure out how long Demi Lovato's national anthem and trying to look through three to five year sample size figuring out okay. Is this the particular venue or she's going to really drag it out or does she not WanNa steal the show so there is as much art and science that goes in a setting all these numbers obviously entertainment market gets a little bit more fluid. And it's why there's lower limits there a little bit different than the scientific approached us to try and figure out over under on touchdowns for Patrick Mahomes or passing yards or we'll Harrison Budka total points scored in the game. Be More than Travis CALC- receptions things along those lines. You're lying a lot more boxers. So let's I think this is a new space space for a lot of people I know you've you've got you've got real estate here. You've got apartment building sat and everything. So let's pretend we're talking to them. What is what? What is the need to know? What's the one? Oh One. How super bowls when everyone kind of really starts paying attention to this? So how do I learn about this besides washing lock it in I mean I think there's all sorts of great tools tools that are out there. Lock it in. I mean we know. It's a driver for sports gambling but we like to have fun with it. It's not going to be the most serious sports gambling. Show host a podcast. It's a little bit more involved for bet. The board that takes things to that extra level. It's a lot more analytically driven. Maybe not necessarily for the casual observer but someone who has a little bit more than a passing interest interest wants to peel back those extra layers in terms of what goes into it but I think the biggest thing not to be overwhelmed because it can be intimidating in the sports betting space super bowl becomes a great great place to start looking at some of the novelty and entertainment props. That are out. There focused on the familiar names and in the case of the game the players that you know don't try and dive too deep and make the things that that will come along with us splitting the atom because before you know it you'll start to end up with paralysis by analysis and give yourself more headaches and aggravation frustration restauration than you ever imagined. So I always start simple and then begin to look at the big picture like the first five minutes talking over under. That's simple or what. What do you think they start with the biggest market? So you're over under for the game right now. Fox bed in that fifty four fifty four and a half. I actually lean under in the game but it's not something thing I'll actually have an investment in. I mean I made the game fifty two. So there's not a ton of wiggle room off a little more bullish position on the forty niners. I actually think they deserve to be a short favored Everton game there now. One and a half point underdog but I think when you look at some of the XS and Os. Everyone wants to talk about Patrick Mahomes against his forty niners defense. I think everyone is selling this. Forty niners offense and short and for how prolific they've been extended stretches against the chiefs. Defense that yes. I know they've been a lot better a latter half the season but still. I'm a little bit skeptical when you look at their performances. Limits is through the first two playoff games and from that point. Then you're going to want to look at the big players try and figure out case Simple simple I use that term loosely. As through Ford Boorda's player score a touchdown so in the case of where he moster you'd have to put up one dollar and thirty cents to make one dollar coming back that he ultimately finds Peter and I think the casual. Oh Fan score four times last week but you have to think about what seven Coleman's potential involvement might be is shoulder. Southie will we see some Jeff Wilson who hasn't been active for the last couple of playoff games. Ames where Cam Matt Breda Ultimately Get out of coaching and Doghouse if he gets over his case of Fumblitis so look for some of the simple markets that are out there just because over-under for yards. Hey It's fun to watch completions attempts things that you're able to easily track on the box score instead of some of the entertainment stuff where you're scrambling through US weekly weekly. And you know all the blogs espy nation to figure out exactly how many props you've won or lost see. I Like I've never done this myself but I like going. You know have homes to hit two fifty yards. I'm generalizing James Harden to drop twenty six points at night involving different elements throughout the world not just pop culture and then so and so wins an Oscar. Whatever those are always the best ones? I know it's a little bit more spread out but so you like thunder here What what are you have to say about? Because there's a lot of strategy I feel like let's just wait. Let slight slight. Everybody take the niners now and then you know wants to get hit is that is that the more esteemed more veteran game it all depends So much of what I do is about when to try and grab the best the a number and identify your market entry. This game is a little bit different because when you look at Kansas City a one and a half point favorite. We're not talking about this game. Potentially getting out to as much watches Kansas City favorite and even if it moved down closer to a pick em which essentially oddsmakers way of hey flip a coin. Pick your side. Just go out there and win. The game. That doesn't changed changed handicap all that much the total a little bit different because it did open as low as fifty one and a half Fox bet off to the fifty four and a half and I think the general public who's bet this game almost like they know the final score in terms of expecting points in a shootout. They don't WanNa root for punch they don't want to refer incomplete passes they WANNA see a forty four forty one type game or Jimmy Garoppolo Rappalo and Patrick Mahomes put on a show akin to what we saw Jimmy G. do in the Dome Against Drew Bras the Games like last year. They're great for me. WHO LOVES TO REFER NOTHING TO HAPPEN and can cash every single under prop on the board a thirteen three super bowl but was crazy? If you go all the way back to two thousand and you look at over unders that had been set at fifty or above those games have actually actually gone five and one to the under with the average points per game in those games a sheet under forty. That's pretty awesome and good advice. A few days outcome game Far Listeners and maybe the young people around here I'm just people here's your shot of this episode is brought to you by Ziprecruiter. Where in a brand new year her and it's the perfect time to think about growing your business but hiring talented new people to expand your team can be frustrating and time consuming? If if you're not using ZIPRECRUITER ziprecruiter makes finding the right person for your company. Easy they send your job opening to more than one hundred leading job sites and with their powerful matching technology ziprecruiter skins thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience and invites them to apply to your job. abdications come in ziprecruiter analyzes each one and spotlights the top candidates. So you never miss a great match. ZIPRECRUITER's tools are so effective that four out of five employers. Who Post on Ziprecruiter get a quality candidate through the site within the first day? Our listeners can try Ziprecruiter ziprecruiter right now for free at Ziprecruiter DOT COM Slash Fox. That's ZIPRECRUITER DOT com slash. v O x ziprecruiter recruiter dot com slash box ziprecruiter. The smartest way to hire people walk walk jolly time tied. Helped me on me Homie. I'm desperate what's the most common thing that they tell you. They hit that your advice worst. You know what we do a lot with win. Totals and we've done that for the last couple of years or some of our preseason in outlook podcast and try and tip our hand a little bit two teams that may be overvalued or undervalued for about the board but honestly a you'd be amazed how often people just I expect that because I'm in this business and I've done it for so long that every piece of advice I give out a win and my running joke is if I could win ninety one hundred percent of my bats. No offense to anybody anybody here on radio row where I be sitting somewhere in Turksancacoes with a nice pinochle Lada and a little umbrella rather than trying to sweat out hustling around share of rb Serbia advice so I mean that's the one thing this crazy and I think a lot of people new to the space don't understand the slim margins that the difference between being a long-term winning better and long-term losing better can be as simple as winning two extra bats for every hundred that you make And we talked about in baseball all the time. It's not always how you deal with success. As a professional hitter it's how you deal with failures in your willingness to make those adjustments and then sports betting has a lot of those same similarities. We know you liked the under this week in terms of outlooks and projections. I know. You're so focused. Okay this week in Miami. But what's something like twenty twenty and had to be NFL related necessarily. But I'm a big hockey fan and so when I look at the landscape of the NHL. I know the balance. It's a power has largely been in eastern conference. I think nine out of the top eleven teams in the League all in the east. But when you look at a team like the Florida panthers who this off season went out there and spend a lot of money to bring inequality in Sarajevo Broschi who've seen play at a high level in the past value is twenty five to one the going rate out. There I think the panthers are a team that nobody's really gonNA talk. DOC ABOUT The may have a chance to crash the party of but I also won't argue with Tampa who kind of became the Virginia Cavaliers record breaking season a year ago bounced out unceremoniously. They've they've learned the errors of their ways. We saw John Cooper CH- Kinda change up their style early in the year. I think has got a great shot to accomplish this year that they weren't able to last year that's really good information taught firmin from lock it in. NFS On the PODCAST. What time what give everybody? Because this is new space for everybody saying what time can they watch. Lock it in. And where's the Pakistan. PODCAST ESTA can always follow our twitter handle at the board pod. We'll take a little bit of a sabbatical now. We'll be back for March madness do comprehensive preview for the big dance gambling rambling. Mary Oh yeah you need to have a little Arnuhar in this business but for lock it in four thirty eastern Monday through Friday you can check us out on F S One. It's a great hang. I mean that's the best thing that we can say about it. You come there no matter what. Your level of knowledge is in sports betting. We're going to have fun. We're GONNA bust chops and you're gonNA feel like you're a member of the family just sitting at a blackjack table or kind of US dropping on a conversation between cousin. Sal Rachel Bonetti claim myself. That's awesome todd from it. You're on twitter at todd. Furman as firm with h before they are and you're bouncing around Miami stopping by trying to spend some quality time and spread the Gospel sports gambling world. These days appreciate it.

ZIPRECRUITER Fox Ziprecruiter ziprecruiter Miami Patrick Mahomes Sal Rachel Bonetti US Pat mahomes twitter Todd Firm Indiana Zahle youtube todd coldplay Demi Lovato Pakistan Kansas City Patriots
SUPER BOWL LIV: Todd Fuhrman

Niners Nation

13:01 min | 1 year ago

SUPER BOWL LIV: Todd Fuhrman

"The this episode is brought to you by Ziprecruiter. Weren't a brand new year. The perfect time to think about growing your business with Ziprecruiter ziprecruiter's powerful matching technology analogies. Scans thousands of resumes to help you find candidates with the right experience for Your Business. ziprecruiter is so effective that four out of five employers get a quality quality candidate through the site within the first day. Try ziprecruiter right now for free at ZIPRECRUITER DOT COM Slash Fox. That's ZIPRECRUITER DOT COM at Slash v O x ziprecruiter dot com slash box ziprecruiter. The smartest way to hire You're listening to SP nation at the super bowl. We are very pleased to be joined. Now by somebody that can probably Give us some is on what color shirts will wear and all sorts of different things from F S. One Todd Firm and talk happy Miami. You know what it's always great to be here for all these festivities and see a lot of faces in media and as gambling continues to grow it's bigger and better opportunities than I never thought would have been around this industry. Maybe as recently as three to five two years ago I know that you really dominate this industry. But are you ever surprised at the types of products that come at. I mean 'cause like I saw there was an odd. aww Wasn't you guys but about Pat mahomes brother and how many tick Tock C would put out. It's crazy honestly. I mean having worked in the offshore world in the past and now working for Fox bet that helping them to try and create some of the unique markets. That are out there. You're only really limited by your creativity. Of course. There are some gaming regulations depending on the various jurisdictions. All but when you look at a state like Indiana that approved gatorade color. It's something I never would have dreamed of. When I was behind the counter at Caesar's lengthened national anthem continues to grow in popularity? And then it's always the hundred million dollar our question. Well the official timing. How do we know exactly how to grade these so for someone who used to be an oddsmaker responsible for creating numbers? It's a lot easier being on the other side of the counter trying to find a weakness and be able to pick these numbers apart. What's your favorite you know? What is it the national anthem? Is it you know how many cut aways to Zahle if the Patriots in the superbowl. I mean what's what's your oh to. The entertainment. Props are always great ones. That will surround the broadcast trying. Get people engage right from the start. I mean we I feel like Fox has thirteen hours of pre game coverage coverage and some of those bats will get decided long before the players are even getting to the locker room. I song that gets played at halftime. No there was a huge debate and drama and controversy all with coldplay a few years ago in terms of which particular batch should have been paid out so those start to create a lot of buzz. And what's always interesting being in and around the space base is that you look at people that are trying to find an edge so for media types that are around the rehearsals there around some of the acts that you know what I think we have an inside track on and what's available but that's a big reason that you can't find some of those novelty props at regulated sports books. So how much science would you say it goes into all of this maybe science. It's not that I wear now. There's talk about this a lot on marketing with clay cousin sal and everything. How much of it is how much is is I guess? Educated is better way to put it. You'd be amazed at the amount of hours. The automaker spend watching youtube videos to try and figure out how long Demi Lovato's national anthem and trying to look through three to five year sample size figuring out okay. Is this the particular venue or she's going to really drag it out or does she not WanNa steal the show so there is as much art and science that goes in a setting all these numbers obviously entertainment market gets a little bit more fluid. And it's why there's lower limits there a little bit different than the scientific approached us to try and figure out over under on touchdowns for Patrick Mahomes or passing yards or we'll Harrison Budka total points scored in the game. Be More than Travis CALC- receptions things along those lines. You're lying a lot more boxers. So let's I think this is a new space space for a lot of people I know you've you've got you've got real estate here. You've got apartment buildings that you sat and everything so. Let's pretend we're talking to them. What is what? What is the need to know? What's the one? Oh One. How super bowls when everyone kind of really starts paying attention to this? So what's how do I learn about this. Besides watching locker I mean I think there's all sorts of great tools tools. That are out there. Lock it in. I mean we know. It's a driver for sports gambling but we like to have fun with it. It's not going to be the most serious sports gambling. Show host a podcast. It's a little bit more involved for bet. The board that takes things to that extra level. It's a lot more analytically driven. Maybe not necessarily for the casual observer but someone who has a little bit more than a passing interest interest wants to peel back those extra layers in terms of what goes into it but I think the biggest thing not to be overwhelmed because it can be intimidating in the sports betting space super bowl becomes a great great place to start looking at some of the novelty and entertainment props. That are out. There focused on the familiar names and in the case of the game the players that you know don't try and dive too deep and make the things that that will come along with us splitting the atom because before you know it you'll start to end up with paralysis by analysis and give yourself more headaches and aggravation frustration restauration than you ever imagined. So I always start simple and then begin to look at the big picture like the first five minutes talking over under. That's simple or what. What do you think they start with the biggest market? So you're over under for the game right now. Fox bed in that fifty four fifty four and a half. I actually lean under in the game but it's not something thing I'll actually have an investment in. I mean I made the game fifty two. So there's not a ton of wiggle room off a little more bullish position on the forty niners. I actually think they deserve to be a short favored Everton game there now. One and a half point underdog but I think when you look at some of the XS and Os. Everyone wants to talk about Patrick Mahomes against his forty niners defense. I think everyone is selling this. Forty niners offense and short and for how prolific they've been extended stretches against the chiefs. Defense that yes. I know they've been a lot better a latter half the season but still. I'm a little bit skeptical when you look at their performances. Limits is through the first two playoff games and from that point. Then you're going to want to look at the big players try and figure out case Simple simple I use that term loosely. As through Ford Boorda's player score a touchdown so in the case of where he moster you'd have to put up one dollar and thirty cents to make one dollar coming back that ultimately finds Peter and I think the casual. Oh Fan score four times last week but you have to think about what seven Coleman's potential involvement might be is shoulder. Southie will we see some Jeff Wilson who hasn't been active for the last couple of playoff games. Ames where Cam Matt Breda Ultimately Get out of coaching and Doghouse if he gets over his case of Fumblitis so look for some of the simple markets that are out there just because over-under for yards. Hey It's fun to watch completions attempts things that you're able to easily track on the box score instead of some of the entertainment stuff where you're scrambling through US weekly weekly. And you know all the blogs espy nation to figure out exactly how many props you've won or lost see. I Like I've never done this myself but I like going. You know have homes to hit two fifty yards. I'm generalizing James Harden to drop twenty six points at night involving different elements throughout the world not just pop culture and then so and so wins an Oscar. Whatever those are always the best ones? I know it's a little bit more spread out but so you like thunder here What what are you have to say about? Because there's a lot of strategy I feel like let's just wait. Let slight slight. Everybody take the niners now and then you know wants to get hit is that is that the more esteemed more veteran game it all depends So much of what I do is about when to try and grab the best the a number and identify your market entry. This game is a little bit different because when you look at Kansas City a one and a half point favorite. We're not talking about this game. Potentially getting out to as much watches Kansas City three point favorite and even if it moved down closer to a pick em which essentially oddsmakers way of. Hey Flip a coin. Pick your side. Just go out there and win. The game. That doesn't changed changed handicap all that much the total a little bit different because it did open as low as fifty one and a half Fox bet off to the fifty four and a half and I think the general public who's bet this game almost like they know the final score in terms of expecting points in a shootout. They don't WanNa root for punch they don't want to refer incomplete passes they WANNA see a forty four forty one type game or Jimmy Garoppolo Rappalo and Patrick Mahomes put on a show akin to what we saw Jimmy G. do in the Dome Against Drew Bras the Games like last year. They're great for me. WHO LOVES TO REFER NOTHING TO HAPPEN and can cash every single under prop on the board a thirteen three super bowl but was crazy? If you go all the way back to two thousand and you look at over unders that had been set at fifty or above those games have actually actually gone five and one to the under with the average points per game in those games a sheet under forty. That's pretty awesome and good advice. A few days out from game Far Listeners and maybe the young people around here I'm just people here's your shot of this episode is brought to you by Ziprecruiter. Where in a brand new year and it's the perfect time to think about growing your business but hiring talented new people to expand your team can be frustrating and time consuming? If if you're not using ZIPRECRUITER ziprecruiter makes finding the right person for your company. Easy they send your job opening to more than one hundred leading job sites and with their powerful matching technology ziprecruiter skins thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience and invites them to apply to your job. abdications come in ziprecruiter analyzes each one and spotlights the top candidates. So you never miss a great match. ZIPRECRUITER's tools are so effective that four out of five employers. Who Post on Ziprecruiter get a quality candidate through the site within the first day? Our listeners can try Ziprecruiter ziprecruiter right now for free at Ziprecruiter DOT COM Slash Fox. That's ZIPRECRUITER DOT com slash. v O x ziprecruiter recruiter dot com slash box ziprecruiter. The smartest way to hire people walk the Walk Jolly time tied. Helped me on me Homie. I'm desperate what's the most common thing that they tell you. They hit that your advice worst. You know what we do a lot with win. Totals and we've done that for the last couple of years or some of our preseason in outlook podcast and try and tip our hand a little bit two teams that may be overvalued or undervalued for about the board but honestly a you'd be amazed how often people just I expect that because I'm in this business and I've done it for so long that every piece of advice I give out a win and my running joke is if I could win ninety one hundred percent of my bats. No offense to anybody anybody here on radio row where I be sitting somewhere in Turksancacoes with a nice pinochle Lada and a little umbrella rather than trying to sweat out hustling around share of rb Serbia advice so I mean that's the one thing this crazy and I think a lot of people new to the space don't understand the slim margins that the difference between being a long-term winning better and long-term losing better can be as simple as winning two extra bats for every hundred that you make And we talked about in baseball all the time. It's not always how you deal with success. As a professional hitter it's how you deal with failures in your willingness to make those adjustments and then sports betting has a lot of those same similarities. We know you liked the under this week in terms of outlooks and projections. I know you're so focused focused on this week in Miami but what's something like twenty twenty and had to be. NFL related necessarily. But I'm a big hockey fan and so when I look at the landscape of the NHL. I know the balance. It's a power has largely been in eastern conference. I think nine out of the top eleven teams in the League all in the east. But when you look at a team like the Florida panthers who this off season went out there and spend a lot of money to bring inequality in Sarajevo Broschi who've seen play at a high level in the past value is twenty five to one the going rate out. There I think the panthers are a team that nobody's really GonNa talk doc about it may have a chance to crash the party of but I also won't argue with Tampa who kind of became the Virginia Cavaliers record breaking season a year ago bounced out unceremoniously. They've they've learned the errors of their ways. We saw John Cooper CH- Kinda change up their style early in the year. I think has got a great shot to accomplish this year that they weren't able to last year that's really good information taught firmin from lock it in. NFS On the PODCAST. What time what give everybody? Because this is new space for everybody saying what time can they watch. Lock it in. And where's the Pakistan. PODCAST ESTA can always follow our twitter handle at the board pod. We'll take a little bit of a sabbatical now. We'll be back for March madness do comprehensive preview for the big dance gambling rambling. Mary Oh yeah you need to have a little Arnuhar in this business but for lock it in four thirty eastern Monday through Friday you can check us out on F S One. It's a great hang. I mean that's the best thing that we can say about it. You come there no matter what. Your level of knowledge is in sports betting. We're going to have fun. We're GONNA bust chops and you're gonNA feel like you're a member of the family just sitting at a blackjack table or kind of US dropping on a conversation between cousin. Sal Rachel Bonetti claim myself. That's awesome todd from it. You're on twitter at todd. Furman as firm with h before they are and you're bouncing around Miami stopping by trying to spend some quality time and spread the Gospel sports gambling world. These days appreciate it.

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09/01/2021 Pushing The Odds Hour 3

Pushing the Odds with Matt Perrault

41:22 min | 3 weeks ago

09/01/2021 Pushing The Odds Hour 3

"This is pushing. The is pushing me on on the sports map. Radio network powered by o'reilly auto parts and rocket mortgage from las vegas baby. Here's your host matt parole. We have a seven thirty kickoff for. Uab in jacksonville states on the text line. I got thrown off. Somebody said sorry you said. Do you know the dion. Sanders is the head coach of jacksonville state. And i went we. I thought it was something i was like. Yeah that's right. No it's jackson state not jacksonville state. Bill dummy that game being played in montgomery alabama. Uab against jacksonville state tonight. Espn four thirty eastern time kicked in the line is sixteen and a half or you. A standalone game probably the biggest betting handle of the year for a football game. Definitely for jackson jacksonville. Stay game but probably for a game. We're probably looking at the big handle tonight. Stand alone when. Excuse me wednesday. Because i don't know how much next week people will be into. Uab at georgia. Maybe but that number is going to be enormous georgia plates. Clemson and georgia beats clemson. Georgia beat clemson. Everybody will be on georgia next week. So maybe they'll be a bigger handle next week. But then that's they have a pretty interesting schedule though for. Uab they play jacksonville state tonight. Espn standalone. They played georgia on the road. Espn two who on nine. Eleven and then they're at north texas there at two lane. That game is definitely up in the air. However because two lanes issues in the wake of hurricane ida their home for liberty and we'll see where liberty it looks like. They got a really good quarterback in a lot of attention to people really like liberty to keep the keep things rolling in the right direction and then fau at southern miss home for rice so chance for uab to step out here but we've got the torch championship starting tomorrow. We've got interesting. Betting options points bet is going to be a place where you'll see a lot of golf content. They really put their flag down on golf. We'll talk about the tour championship coming up here. We're gonna talk to teddy greenstein from points in the next segment. It will get his thoughts as to who he likes to win outright winner or you can use the starting handicap the minus ten. Patrick can't lay or not bryson getting heckled. What do you make of the ejection of fans. We're going to be heavily. bryson day. Shambo this coming weekend that to degrade seven points bit joins us bill. Crab burger at forty pass. More to come. It's in the odds on a wednesday saying this is pushing the odds on the sports map radio network powered by o'reilly auto parts rocket mortgage live from las vegas. Here's matt peralte right lots to get to a teddy greenstein from points. Bet senior editor joining us here on the progressive guest line week one college football tour championship in more teddy g on the progressive guests line. Teddy parole toria met. How you doing. Bud i'm great great to hear your voice for coming on all right so first. Let's start with this dumb harassment thing where you can't yell at bryson day shambo what's going on with this. I mean come on. I know it's not golf like right. You're not supposed to but this thing is good for golf. No it brings attention that you've got this rivalry going on. I am so sort on this and do there's nothing worse than somebody coming on a radio show at being wishy washy so i'll apologize in advance like i'm a huge sportsmanship guy like i was showing a clip of the. Us open tennis to my kids. This morning someone loses benefits that tiebreaker. And it's gotta just kill the player but he walks over the net to give you know. Give the victor a hug. And i love that and i i really hate people being idiots to golf tournaments. Just shut your mouth like. Don't yell mashed potato in the whole like but on the flip side exactly like. Brian just looks like kinda do she. Looks like idiots. Like if you're that sensitive that you can't handle hey brooke see. That's the problem too and like what if people yell go brooks or rookie. Or what are they gonna do at the ryder cup when european fans are gonna be yelling. Stuff at whistling straights. Are we gonna have like a police presence there like you said this you at a k. And your thing you said go broke. So that's i mean i. It is like untenable. So i am truly down the middle on this one. I feel like they're shining a spotlight on something that yes they wanted. Take it down. But it's almost like bryson said and went to them like there was a moment in the play off against. Patrick lay last week at the bmw where someone yelled his backswing in. I don't think that's appropriate and all awful. But he stopped he had to reset go back and take another shot in in that moment on playoff hole. The whole world is watching playoff. And that's wrong. Felt like bryson kinda has had it with the crowd in wanted the jail or to do something right. I think that's probably true. I was pissed off that fan as well. Because i had five hundred twenty five bucks riding on a bryce and victory there so i was like shut up. Let them and let them try to hold on out. I know he wasn't gonna make a putt so we had to hole out eighteen and he almost did in one of those playoff holes but it does rica that. I mean the fact that bryce and hasn't met with you know the for the last several events. I think shows that he's sensitive right now and can't really take a punch. She came out with his comments. About vaccination that i thought were idiotic. It's one thing if you don't wanna get vaccinated. It's another to try to claim your some american hero that you know the shots are going to somebody else that was absurd and for scientists to say that a pseudo scientist as he calls himself. That was ridiculous. So i was really good comments from worry. Mcelroy basically said look. He has brought a lot of this on himself but he's also trying here so maybe lay off a little bit like if if kepco wanted to come out and say lay off this guy people probably would but i don't be that anytime soon. I would agree. He's enjoying all of this. He loves watching watching him. Be on out there dealing with the crowd so this week earn yet. So we've got the torch championship but it's got this funky format so lays got ten strokes. He starts minus ten and then it goes down from there. There's two different ways of in this right. You can bet the outright winner and then you can bet it without starting handicap. Exactly right i mean it makes it one of the best bedding got bedding weekends of the year golf betting events of the year. Because you have your head to heads which we often have But you so you've got your top thirty players so all the big names here essentially like you see some guys that make like phil. But you've got the top guys from the year so you can bet on who is going to hoist the cup and patrick. Kelly had been favored. and that has now flipped. So jon rahm plus three fifty. Can't plus three seventy five rice and plus five fifty fee now plus seven hundred. I female and this group win. So bet on tony. Female one two weeks ago. You think tony snaps. The second place finishes wins. This thing wants fifteen million couple factors here so first of all. They're really like only four guys. So i kind of played the process of elimination game. I can't way you know he was the best putter like the world's ever seen last week. I don't know that old up on a different course. Plus it's hard to win back to back week. Bryson has the chipping chips. I'm not going to take him. Do you want jon. Rahm plus three fifty and he shot he starts four shots back or do you like see now plus seven hundred and he starts to shots back right so there's math involved here. Tony comes in totally under the radar. And yeah he won two weeks ago. So he's gotta have confidence. It's just so tough and these big major tobacco fee now. I've been burned. So many times. I've treated myself outweighs. I love betting him on head-to-heads. If i think he's gonna win because at least he may be better than than that one person versus him choking on the seventeenth green missing pot. He needs or whatever and not coming in. I in coming in second. Would you take one of those four favorites or would you go deeper on that list. See i would go deeper to sort of value perspective my thing with justin thomas. I think because of the slur he said and got caught on the hotline. I just wonder if his head is finally right if he finally has been able to get away from that knowing this is the last tournament like there's nothing else this is it in time to get after it and i just wonder at plus sixteen hundred sixty one seems like long odds on justin thomas given how good player he is six shots back So that makes it challenging. But i mean yeah what's cool about this event is like if you feel great about jt that he's just going to have the low seventy two hole score. You can take him so points. That hasn't been you know. Plus twelve hundred just to have the lowest score. And for that event i mean. Jt's intriguing so aurora. Johnson is a thousand. Dj's thirteen hundred. Those guys are playing pretty well coming in. Yeah i'm excited to watch you know jordan speed. I can you trust him. Can you trust jordan with the way. He's he's still up and down right. Yeah he really is. I mean obviously he. He really had a consistent year. I think i think he'd actually made sixteen straight cuts so the whole narrative of him driving all over. The place didn't really hold this year. So he's been solid fading lately There's a matchup with sam berns. Sam berns getting. I believe plus one thirty and i think i'm gonna sprinkle someone sam jordan just seems to be you know fading a little bit. Hopefully he at least gets back in time for the ryder cup. Yeah let's see. I am curious phone point perspective for you guys. It feels like with what you page. You're doing you guys are trying to put your flag down on golf to excuse the punk you guys see you really wanna be the book that people are going to go to the golf thousand percent so not only that but like our relationship with nbc and the golf channel. So i'm donald channel pretty much every tuesday jae crowder or head of trading. He's on a ton he's up in connecticut. He's doing a lot of wednesday hit page played professionally and was the star in college and then we also added note of the gay and his video. It's popping up on our site in a couple of hours So absolutely we offer a ridiculous number of ways to golf. We have really fun name. Bet like my name of at this week. And i really want you to guess the odds. I i want your your true honest opinion okay. Rice shambo to beat patrick kelly in two or more rounds so i haven't better score than can't leave in two or more rounds. So it's of the four rounds. He just has to win. Two of the four wreck to cash. What i'm gonna say. Plus one fifty. Plus that is an amazing guessed it was plus one fifty and it is boosted to plus one seventy. I thought it was going to be more like plus one twenty. So plus one seventy. I mean all you know almost two one on your money just has to beat them two rounds out of four. I i love that. So pages international player always the fedex cup so you get eleven players concluding ron and sergio in those guys. How do you feel about sergio garcia. Right now he seems to be a little bit he. St you pick this week striking it. So well i mean he is just like that guy he can just roll out of bed at six to five feet. He looks like he bed sometimes too though unfortunately for him kids. Why is calling lauren callous. So far down here you know. He was the favorite Any here's how. I know that not the shamelessly mentioned this but page and i had a long drive contests that we were at In iowa at a point that vip alphabet so let's tie at spirit halloween burlington. Very nice yes. I lived for a while in omaha. Well yes eighteen. Toll is very dramatic gum. There's like a creek running a along the right so page that. Let's do this if you win. Morikawa gets boosted. If i wouldn't speak gets boost its remember like mukalla got boosted from plus three fifty plus four hundred. I mean i hope not. A lot of people bet that because he is miles. I don't know what has happened to his game in the last several weeks. But he's fifty to one coming into this and harris. English was everyone's favourite a couple of weeks ago at the way he was playing four. He's gone right. Yeah he's forty two one he's way back. They're just looking at the stroke. I mean actually not that far back in terms of strategy that minus four six shots back where he's with speeds burns and jt but the way he's playing lately doesn't make you feel like he's gonna catch up Six shots field early. Now tell you this in terms of what you guys are expected from a ryder cup betting perspective. It's up against college football. It's up against the nfl. But what are you guys. Expect from my handle perspective because it feels like with brooks seeing this new huge rivalry going on that. There's going to be a lot of eyeballs on the ryder cup this year. Well it sounds like you've been in our content calls. Because i've been pushing hard for the ryder cup. Like some of my bosses are not big off guys so they look at it and they say well the ryder cup. String a big deal. And i'm saying it's going to be a huge deal at least friday and probably on the saturday and that if it's closed on the sunday as well so you know i'm in chicago. I'm about two hours and twenty minutes from whistling straights. I played there a few weeks ago. I had an amazing time. And i'll be up there wednesday to friday and like for me. This is the first. You'll be the first ryder cup. Where tons of people will be betting. I'm sure they were three years ago. In france. you know there was some there but now you're talking about half the country with access to it. So i just think like the match to mass is going to be amazing. The only tricky thing is like you know if you wanna bet on the ryder cup now. There's only one bet. It's only usa europe or a tie so it's not like you know a week you have all these options so you have to wait until you know the captains have put out their lineups and then hit hard. Yeah very true. Well i'll watch for. I'll be looking your lines. It should be a really fun to see what happens. I i love it and this weekend is going to be a ton of fun and the ryder cup coming up. it's going to be a ton of fun teddy. Great having you on man. Let's do it again soon. Right appreciate your time. Anytime matt enjoyed great one that instead of greenstein at tha greenstein senior editor points bet points bet. Usa on twitter follow them on the progressive line drivers progressive save on average seven hundred dollars per year. More on the ryder cup next year. I'm pushing the odds. This is pushing the odds on the sports map. Radio network powered by o'reilly auto parts and rocket mortgage live from las vegas. Here's map peralta. All right good stuff there with teddy greenstein from points. Bet and look. I think betting on golf. I think points is really smart to do this. I've long said in this comes to live wagering. Golf is the perfect live betting sports and the more that well. Nbc is going to buy points bed. Okay they've got an opportunity to purchase twenty five percent of the book within four years. That was their first deal that they did when they did their broadcasting arrangements. That's why points is going heavily into golf because it makes total sense. I've the golf channel. They've got a lot of the golf tournaments. All the ryder cup matches up with a broadcasting platform. having a media content wing spayed paid sporadic end. Teddy greenstein doing a lot of the content for their golf stuff and page has a monsters. I cannot believe the social media following that page. Has i mean she is. I mean my goodness. I think she's got ten million into in total for followers. She's got three million on instagram. I believe that is. I think tick talk. She's at like two million in twitter. Is like a million or something. i mean. it's just ridiculous what she has right now from being like. Sometimes you hear someone say like. I'm an influencer like she's an influencer like she's got eyeballs upon eyeballs people watching and following and paying attention and commenting. And it's just it's remarkable and it's all golf content. She has a gorgeous swing. She's an incredibly attractive woman but she is. She knows golf. She can talk golf and she's been outspoken about a variety different topics i you know about people who have said things written things about her and she's pretty quick to respond and say no. That's not actually appropriate. You can't say that you're wrong. Whatever and i appreciate that that she doesn't let it lie if someone's saying something wrong or you're writing something about her that she doesn't appreciate and cultivated incredible following and look. This is going to grow. Rachel panetta today. Being hired by the nfl network is going to be a. I mean that's a huge higher one. It's a huge higher for her fox sports over. I don't know why they dissolved in change the show. I mean it's really kind of a weird deal and they've decided to do this rotation now on that program and they they kept klay travis whatever flying and that's their point that's your angle and they let todd furman and rachel panetta go which were the two best part of that show. So it's kinda like wait. What that but. Rachel and todd is gonna do phenomenal tout taught you know. He's in my mind the goat of all this. If you wanna talk about the original in the guy who started all this sports gambling content stuff. Todd furman someone. I've i've looked up to todd for a long time. I think he's an incredible talent and really sharp guy really smart and recognized the market before anybody else which is the key sign of so many really smart people in the world that see something coming down the pike. It's okay. I'm going to do this well before anybody else and established myself and get rolling rachel. Now getting this gig with the nfl network. Though i mean she becomes the face of the nfl network for gambling. I mean are you kidding me. What a job. What an amazing awesome opportunity for her to walk into that and to have that and be a part of nfl. The nfl media appearances on nfl. Game day she'll do appearances. I'm sure on good morning football on. Nfl tillack says. I mean she's going to be the person talking about gambling on the nfl bleeping network. That job is so big. And she's in development to launch an nfl network. Podcast potentially as well that will be distributed. Which i think is really brilliant to do. I mean the more people involved in this at that level the better it is remarkable that cbs. On the same day that rachel panetta gets hired to be the face of nfl gambling for the nfl network. That cbs comes out in states. Are broadcasters are not going to talk about sports betting during the game. This is the job that i think. Everybody wants the job that everybody wants in who me sitting here in this chair. The job that so many of us are watching and wondering. When will somebody be hired to be the expert for gambling during the broadcast. So you have the play by play guy. You have the number two chair. You have the sideline reporter who was covering the game from an injury standpoint talking to the coaches and you have the rules expert that you turn to to go ahead and talk about rules so you've already added one. Share that the group that the fan the audience. They know all right. Let's go and talk to you know whoever whoever's going to be that person that x. nfl official or the x. Nfl for an office person or the x. nfl rules committee member. What's going on here and that person comes in and explains you can do the same exact thing during. Nfl broadcast with sports gambling in. That's we're sports. Gambling should live one person in that role while the game's going on to be able to say well guys. Hey you know. It's kind of interesting but as we're watching this first half wind down here the lines fifteen. The scores seventeen here comes a drive. This kick a field goal. Here that's gonna hit for the dog in that. You know that a lot of a lot of money came in on the favorite. The number opened up in the first half is thirteen. It was driven all the way up to fifteen at kickoff and now we could see here. The dog come in and cash. Most pets came in on the over. The that's really simple and then you would have somebody not only during halftime too. we're talking about the stats say. Hey jim what's going on for the second half number. Well you know. The line opened up in the game. It was minus ten but the underdog now leading here seven seventeen ten in the first half the lines totally flipped here was a fourteen point number for the chiefs and now it's baltimore minus seven for the second half. It's a thirty second hit. That's all you need to have. Because that's exactly what you and your buddies are doing during the game. You're going to have time. Hey what's second line or yeah. Yeah the wine closed at ten second half line now is minus seven over thirty two. Where do you think about that. I probably would go with the over on that because the way these offenses have played in fourth quarter two minute warning points being scored at the end of the game. Okay yeah that makes sense or a tight game. Go to overtime. You hit the over coming up in overtime. Like it doesn't have to be in your face so the thing that everybody's forgetting about this is that people just want this to be a part. They want the spice of gambling. They don't need to be the entire meal. No one's asking for only gambling. It's still has to be about the game. We love sports because we've played it. We've watched it. We've experienced gambling as part of it. It's not the only thing. Nobody wants a specialized broadcast just for sports pedic. They've tried it. It's not really working. It's not really working. What they want is inclusion. They wanted to be part of the game. Like a rules expert. They wanna sports betting experts to come in and tell you pre game in game. That's the future. That's were rachel. Panetta on sunday night. Football would pop on and say here's the line. Here's what happens second half number. Here's the movement. Here's the liability. Those are the things that us in the sports gambling content world. We're waiting to see if that ever is going to happen. Who's the first network. Rachel bananas gets hired to be the face of gambling for the nfl. And the cbs folks. On the same day come out and say are. Broadcasters will not talk about the line during the game which is so dumb. You're supposed to relate to your audience. Your audience is talking about this. Every single commercial doesn't make any sense to me. Well a man who is heavily involved in this is bill. Cracking burger professional sports gambler and content. Creator joins us next year. A portion. the odds. This is pushing the odds on the sports map. Radio network powered by o'reilly auto parts and rocket mortgage live from las vegas. Here's carole's let's talk some betting. Football season is here. That means bill cracking burger coming back with us here at bill. Crack man in crack winds dot com on the guest. Line bill parole. Aria amac bill crack number of course and thank. You have me on actually back east right now. Taking advantage of some of these bonuses that offered here funding these accounts for football season but I will be in vegas for opening weekend of the nfl. I'm going through the raiders. First game so will you go to arizona to do the same thing that what we've seen in other states while the sign up bonuses that are going to be projected when arizona goes live. Yeah i'll be there. I'm actually A consultant for one of the casinos. There that's gonna that's going to Book the games in house which is interesting they. They decided the big companies and and I i'll be talking about that down the line also one official in Yeah but i will though i mean I spend people are shocked. I live in las vegas most of the year we get the nfl weekends. I'll spend at least half of the nfl season here on the weekends. And you know in jersey because Let's face it. i'll just be real blunt. I have about a dozen places the best sports illegally here. We're in nevada. Believe it or not there. Sports betting capital. That once was so. I'm allowed to better five places so well they don't know yet right that call. These companies have gobbled up monopolized the industry The william hill's william hill caesar's or mgm. They have Which is now williams now. Caesar's they have gobbled up all these other sports books. When i first moved down about twenty places a bet and I'm there's there's about nine of them now but places You know most of the places don't don't allow mir did they. Just don't take the right size even recently coast void the boy casinos a company down to minimal hundred bucks fifty bucks. So they'll be there. I'm not allowed to bet it's at that station's not a lot about william hill and not a lot better at treasure island some tough. That's not great. Don't like to hear dealing hearing that if you win if you win. They don't want you that that's the case. I don't care what they say. I've i've been. They threatened to sue me. And everything else and i said bring on There'd be honestly i just You know what it could so me for saying that they don't like winners and and they do a lotta things. They shouldn't do so But however i hear the new talking about one of them. But they're going through the caesars. One i hear their new philosophy is not throwing people out the new management style. I don't know for a fact. I'd like if that's happening. It's wonderful so we'll see what happens. People don't think they understand that. We need guys like you bill. I mean you're you're the guys to give us the better lines. You're the guys that keep the books in line. And you're the guy that gets us the better number if you guys don't exist. That's not a good world for the average gambling in right now. A lot of people know that property. You i mean when when the meadowlands i opened up and and and i came into existence at the mental end the first two days i rip them apart for for wide line and a euro line. They brought to the united states. When when i mean by that is you can go to anywhere in las vegas streets South point south point. You go in and out. Money line is minus one sixty. Come back on the dogs plus one fifty in baseball season. Well that's not the case with a lot of these euro books so they have a twenty cent a wider line. One sixty comes back one forty but even more so when they first came to the country they remind us once he plus one thirty plus twenty so they they really just for having a math gonna gun they were they were really legally. Robbing people and I i i've blast them and the owner of the meadowlands actually text me on twitter. I gotta hold in and and now they're more in line. And i'm not saying i'm anybody but i'm gonna call out someone that's robbing the public These kids that grew up on sports betting on. I'm sorry i on sports their favorite team on espn now. They're you know this whole john now betting sports without knowing anything and i don't care what it is i i just wanna bet i'm able to bet legally now. This is wonderful but not realizing what the lines are supposed to be in. They weren't in line with the market so I like to be a spokesman for the little guy in the i. I'm relatable to the public. Because i am joke public. That's know listen. I'm i drive a kia any car. One that's what i know. He is a nice. I like user. Nice they really did a good job guys. Oh man i love. I gotta tell you right absolutely loved. Oh yeah go off roading beast right there. That's a gorgeous honda's in as both our way underrated for value is genesis two really. Yes line for them all right. So let me ask you about the upcoming college football season you g you get involved in the futures market at all either college or pro. You like doing that or are you mostly week by week. I'm mostly week by week especially in these uncertain times though. I've never had a losing season betting futures. i did that some futures this year Didn't really bet anything college. I probably now that. I've seen ucla's the first week. I actually liked them a little bit this weekend. So it's not something. I do people radio and give them pick out but like i probably would have bet them over a season wins Or i think there's a couple of sleepers out there. I think this year Unlv being one of them. I actually like one of our home. State teams I like nevada surprised when people this year But yeah i really didn't see any any college didn't bet a lot of college football futures I do know that there are some of them that That might be some guys. I really really respect like Mid tennessee state over five Let's see i it's funny. I have the list. Because i just got these texts yesterday. Texas tech over five these our draftkings by the way they said to me if i can if you're there he's good back three months they gave me The other one was the saints under night. Well the same nine almost like it's common sense. I actually bet the new orleans saints under nine Nine and a half actually in vegas but now under nine. I guess because they're not gonna have the home season schedule. They were supposed to have so. Don't want the basic strategy under nine. I am you just piqued my interest in a couple of pets here. So i'm on over one and a half for abby. How you yeah. Unlv over one. And a half. I mean listen it sounds so easy one. It's not. it's not gonna be easy win tomorrow night. That's the key they gotta beat eastern washington. Fc school they've got to win that game and then i need them to upset one team the rest of the way to get to to. They're not going to be good. I just need them to opposite one team but thinking that way and along those lines you have the whole schedule throughout the year. There's going to be a couple games. Where they they could be a ten twelve point underdog whatever. They don't think they can easily win. That game You know people see those kind of spreads and they say oh my god i can never bet the money line. Do you know whenever. I bet a dog and college college sport whether it's college football college basketball. I never talk about this and i need media social normally. I'm always throwing ten percent on the money line. So i'm bending something close seven points. I'm throwing you know. If i'm betting i'll just use them just rounding terms thousand dollars on underdog. I'll throw one hundred hundred dollars on the money line. But i shop money like bounce. 'cause money likes to have typically more juice line so but if you have a lotta outside me whenever jurisdiction. I'm in i shop. Those money lies. I'm bringing that house edge down to to really really minimal money. Those things i talked about earlier to were after kings. I hate to talk about draftkings because they don't give up more. But i am a spokesman for points. But and i know you had one of those guys earlier So so teddy. But anyway yeah so There are a couple of futures that and they're literally obtainable But i actually do but Usually i'll bet from futures because of the situation where you don't know what's going to happen we're gonna get full seasons in here not trying to be a fear monger. I hope we are going to get the full seasons in all these sports. Make sure you read your rules at your sports books. What they vary from book the book That happened Last year where some books were paying out certain futures and some weren't paying them out so make sure you know what the rules are very important. You know we have a gaming commissions in place for all all these new jurisdictions but. Let's say he's gaming commissions. This is all new to them. That i mean you know. You'll find some gaming people that that have tough time with with sports betting on liberty school. But you know these new gaming places around the country they you know you're lucky if they know what eleven to ten means never mind you know other things so I was. i'm totally with you. I bet illinois plus seven. And then i took him on the money line and i'm on. Ucla plus three against lsu. And i'll take the money line as well. How do you feel about the first game of the year for lsu ucla hosting. They're taking care of hawaii. You're asking telling you. I'm betting ucla ucla ucla money line. So i think that's a that's a that's that's going to be a. I didn't bet it yet. Because i missed the four that were getting and i was hoping to get free and hook now that i see feel like. I'm seeing some three dog money. I am probably gonna have to grab that Just like everyone else out there and have to grab it at plus three minus one ten so That that should be. That should be a good. I just think they're better than people think Like i said so. That is going to be. Did you say you bet it yet or no. Yeah already bet. I bet plus three. I missed the four two. I'm annoyed with myself. Should have taken it. I was waiting. I was wondering what the line was going to do with a monday. Gone up with lsu money and it didn't went the other way. So i took three. Because i don't miss out on two and a half so i grabbed the three and grabbed the money line as well on it and i. I'm with you. I mean they have twenty returning starters and look great. Run the football last year. Lsu gave up five yards per rush so their defense is a major work in progress now. Eleven hour bus ride from lsu to houston practicing there and then fly to california is not a great recipe and you know for everyone out there that this is. This is still attainable. Line in vegas. I'm looking here at Draftkings fan not obtainable sandals two and a half actually saw Plus three minutes fifteen. But yet i had gone up for my don best screen looking at that game and there was three that a lot of the local casino. So that's free. It's still a painful May want they want to jump on that and then destroyed like i said my strategy is always if i'm in the game after one hundred hundred so you may want something on the line also totally agree Before i let you go. Do you still avoid watching games. Because i'll tell you this. The first time i heard you say that on when you were on the show on showtime i went. Wow for on action. It was the first time. I'd heard anybody say that and now i've met for three hundred ninety five consecutive days and i don't watch games anymore i bet and i do you know probably regret saying it even though i do i read saying because people don't understand the reason why i say so they're gonna say well. How do i listen any this guy. He doesn't watch the games. Well honestly i don't have to watch the game. You don't say for watching everything that i mean. I have a team. A guy depending on what sport three or four or five different guys. You know. we're we're we're scouring media scouring social social safe and and instagram's and not only that the twitter's and it's not only the players. The coaches sons. The family somebody a little nuggets of information. You can find out there I it's just amazing. But i i really don't have to watch the game but i do watch more. Believe it or not now this. We filmed action Few years ago. I do watch more now. Only because I'll have friends around. Or especially when. I'm on the east coast. That's when i'm here on the east coast like opening we. I'll be here this week. And i got guys that are coming down from the city guys. I grew up with literally in the bronx new york. These guys watch every minute of every every place so and they'll ask me they. They know now they can't ask me anymore. They'll say crackle you on here and if the game you know i hit fifty eight percents fifty seven percent of games. But i mean that that's gonna make me six figures a season. I i made seven figures for you but but however for them it's only free four percent advantage if they lose the game. They'll start bitching and i. I mean how much you bet. Here's the money back where he lost never game again so so but these guys walk every minute of every game. I can't i won't. Yeah if i hit mega bucks for twenty million. You wouldn't see me yelling though. Not that. I'm a big shot or nothing. It's just not me. I i don't get i don't tend to scream and yell at things and it's it's a business to me. It's a business i. There's no emotion in my game. My leave is only my bankroll like i said before. If the same. I used to be a met fan. I used to be a fan of gains and going to go and root for my favorite team. I go right to the bronx again. And the bronx tale comes right out of me. No allegiances anything because just like the old like the mob. Guy said shouts dairy. Go see if your father camp either pay the rent. See if mickey mantle pay for you. He doesn't care about you. Why do you care about him on spot on belgrade stuff men enjoy your trip to lennox city. Appreciate you coming on student right. Thank miami bill. Cracking burger at bill crack man to follow him on twitter cracklins dot com as well here on the progressive guests. Line final next here on pushing the odds. This is pushing the odds on the sports map. Radio network powered by o'reilly auto parts and rocket mortgage live from las vegas. Here's map herald. This is the final hand on pushing the odds. Here's matt peralte all right so. I don't know what i'll do for the tour championship. If i'll be involved at all for the tour championships. I might. I might jump in. And mccall more kala at fifty to one fifty one for cal. I mean that is. I don't know like throw fifty bucks on it and just see what happens. I mean that's geez that is. I'm not saying he's gonna win the tour championship starting way back. But that's a dude that earlier this year. He was on fire in call more college fifty to one. I don't like bryson. i cannot back tony now. i'll bob i mean teddy greenside. Wow he backed now. I was like excuse me. You're back at fee now. How are you back at tony now. Like that's fee now is the perpetual bridesmaid in this is fifteen million dollars. We're talking about a lot of money here. Okay sucking like these guys win this big bad. So i don't know i can't back here but i can't back jon rahm because the values not there and then i can't back bryson this you know either so you have to go kind of off the beaten path a little bit because see where guys are starting and so i don't know yet i may get involved my golf. Betting is equally as bad as my baseball betting. I'm just so annoyed with betting on baseball. I'm just so done with it and it's just it's crushed me. I mean i. It's because i bet every day and it's my job every day so i'm watching these games and i'm i'm doing all these things and variants. You just have to be so involved with the work in. I envy the baseball writers who put in the work. It's really hard. I'd rather spend two hours football game that spending two hours every day breaking down one baseball game and then having to do it again and then do it again. Do it again and do it again. Yuck thursday full loaded huge show boss. Tony versus the book papa. Bear and more all coming at you tomorrow for pushing the odds at sports talk matt. We'll talk tomorrow.

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NFL Free Agency NFC North: Nick Foles traded to Chicago, Vikings trade Stefon Diggs, Lions move Slay

Bet The Board

27:59 min | 1 year ago

NFL Free Agency NFC North: Nick Foles traded to Chicago, Vikings trade Stefon Diggs, Lions move Slay

"Along that Thou board with those bet you twenty bucks I can get. You can't look for the end of the day. You only fifteen grand how they pay debts men his manny. It's the board. Podcast really the end up right back where. I could still pick winners. I can still make money for all kinds of people back home. And why mess up a good thing? Airs Pain Insider and the Board podcast power by Fox. Bet episode. Four OF OUR FREE AGENCY PREVIEWS. Hopefully you guys have tuned in already on your fill of the NFC and AFC south of course the AFC north late last week division that we might not be all that exciting so flee or not expecting us to put together an Emmy Award winning performance. I'm your host todd. Furman joined as always by my colleague. Costa man we can only hope who didn't eat frozen pizza before this morning's podcast. The one the only pain insider I'm supposed to say no arena. Oh I just I just hoping you were GonNa tell me you had egg whites you eat. Your Lara Bar wasn't yeah. Had A meat lover's frozen pizzas pepperoni really gave me Harper. Figured if I added some sauce he was gonNA help. Get me through this one. No no no. We went with a a normal breakfast. This go round and hopefully I can think a little bit more. It's amazing I operate much better early. In the morning on an empty stomach. It's amazing start clogging the body with food and your mind starts to go a little bit. You're a creature of habit one who refrains from drinking coffee on a regular basis. I knew you're anti energy drink. So you like to come into this. Natural not with any chemical enhancements or stimulants to try and get your best performance l. Natural all right here we go. Nfc North this should be relatively short and sweet. All Things considered we look at the current odds from Fox. Bet To win this division the Green Bay packers or listed as the favourite plus a dollar thirty there followed by the Minnesota Vikings at plus one sixty the Chicago bears the new look. Potentially Chicago bears plus four fifty and the Detroit. Lions at nine. No one hat tip to some of the memes. We saw their last week on April Fools Day. Were they basically redid the draft? The Bears Selected Patrick. Mahomes with the number two overall pick and he'll be salt in the wounds for a lot of our bear fan listeners. Out there who wonder what could have been if pains man. Crush was wearing midnight blue and orange but a last not the case. So we're GONNA as we always do pain from worst happy without it went. I figured you might be. I figured you might be Panama Red. So we'll start with the team pegged finished last at least in the eyes of oddsmakers and it's the Detroit. Lions are openly admit pain. I have no idea what the hell is going on there in Detroit. What Matt Patricia Going? So we can start the players who won't be there in Detroit. Wearing Honolulu blue and silver as you can tell. I've spent way too much time with. Nfl Colors Darius slay dealt to the Philadelphia Eagles to draft. That was what they end up bringing in Desmond True Fon two years. Twenty one million dollars to replace him. But you'll lose a lot of beef on the defensive line snacks arison Sean Robinson. Mike Daniels all gone. Devon KENNARD OFF TO ARIZONA LOSE A couple of offensive linemen. Do you WanNa talk about this sleigh. Deal first and foremost before we figure out. What the Hell Detroit's doing with the rest of their roster. It was a good move. I think for for the Eagles it was gonNA move for all parties listening to be in Detroit anymore The Eagles Corner was a position of need will kind of leave it at that till we get to the NFC so you know. Listen when you look at this division. There's so much history but you look at all of these teams and it's like Oh you know a lot of a lot of mediocrity here And it's been real slow off season in my mind for a lot of these teams Detroit certainly May volume transactions not necessarily sure. What's going on? Listen I don't Detroit. Hold on one second. You know what to reminds me of right now. They remind me of that Guy. And your fantasy baseball or fantasy. Football League who you know is not gonNA compete for anything but just wants to be active on the waiver wire to try and drive up the amount of money he's GonNa have to contribute to the pot so he knows he makes the right move. It might take him from ten in the standings to ninth but it's not as though any movies made where she's made it's GonNa take them from ten to getting into playoff consideration. That's what I feel like a dry line. Become to your point I i. I don't really love anything. This team does Even one of their best moves trading Doron harmon kind of just fell on their lap. Right Belichick was open and honest with him because he loves her on Harman and it was like listen. I can't afford to resign you And basically that was the reason they decided to move on and they placed him in a situation. That stylistically made sense with the coach that he was familiar with this. Was Bella. Check really doing a guy? He likes him to run harmony favor. Detroit lightly doesn't land harm in any other way That said right very good. Cover safety something. Lions secondary desperately needed. They were horrific in coverage. Finish twenty-ninth defense. Pass efficiency twenty-seventh explosive pass defense so Harman's should help their little bit again. You know you deal my guy slay you get some picks back. True Font probably helps fill that void for a little bit but he's not any spring chicken. He's coming often. Injury plagued season is going to be thirty when this year comes around but probably helps them a little bit here The secondary could get improved. Pretty quickly there unless Thurs you know an offer. The lions can't refuse where teams trying to trade up in front of Miami Okuda probably makes some sense Maybe they do trade out of three but the folks that I kind of respect. They're basically have provided three options It's Okuda it's a trade down then maybe a coup if he's still there if it were to go to say sixth for the chargers Maybe Khuda still barely take him at six others. Bend some talks of Derrick Brown as well to fill some of those huge voids for Detroit's interior line. That's basically what I'm hearing from from Detroit Danny Shelton not a bad signing kind of reunites with his former coach should help fill the void again with guys like snack Harrison. And as Sean Robinson who both departed Think they're going to try to draft an edge. Rusher might be in play for one in Free Agency. As well as guys start to see their value diminish or even drop their own price tag. Maybe they end up with with a free agent. Defense Event We'll see offensive line. We wanted to about that. Yeah I WANNA get your take on this signing in the fact that they think he's going to be a lynch pin in their offensive line. A guy who is in Philadelphia who you know. Hey I'm not going to be overly critical because I won't claim to be a scout or the same train die you do oftentimes from you look like a turnstile more so than a building block. Yeah you know. I think there's a lot of talent there. There's a lot to work with. He's he's still pretty raw The sad part here is you. The lions probably their best overall unit on the team. Last season was offensive line You could argue that they were a you know fringe top ten offensive line in the two key cogs responsible for that production or go on right class down. Wagner gone Overspend on Vajpai Everything points to spending a day to pick on a guard so the one thing that Detroit does have five picks in the first four rounds if they end up trading down out of three. You probably add to that as well. So the draft is going to be very very important for the lines. Lotta Yeah I just didn't understand the signing Graham Glasgow would've been more than suitable if not better. I don't see it being an upgrade and was an. I think unless the money is staggering. There are a lot of people who do not WanNa play in that organization and I think at the end of the day. You can only be so good. If you don't respect the man leading you and we have seen stories come out whether it was Darius slay whether it was a former guy in the special teams Who's no longer in the NFL. Saying wasn't the guy is in very good. He's not a very positive human to be around And he walks around with an ego because of championship rings which Bill Belichick provided him and he's not like a fraction of the coach. The bell check is obviously so the locker room is a little bit of a mess. Not many respects the head coach in a scenario like that. It's very difficult to be overly good. That's just one Amir so now make sense. I mean culture goes a long way. It doesn't matter if you're a football franchise if you're a small business or fortune. Five hundred company. There's a trickle down effect from number one man on your roster in the head man all the way down to the key cogs in the wheel so it makes a ton of sense when you look at the bears pain. We knew that they had grown restless in weary of life with Mitchell trubisky. They of course go out this off. Season and trade for Nick foles bringing in from Jacksonville creating a quarterback competition we could say we want semantics window-dressing how that's going to look they also bring in Robert Quinn. They give him a nice chunk of change to bring him over from the cowboys to kind of help that defensive line but he was very mediocre at least in large parks before his breakthrough campaign. Last season they cut ties with Leonard. Floyd ha ha Clinton dix Prince Amukamara. Gone Taylor Gabriel. On the offensive side. What did you think of the bears off season? And what Matt Nagy trying to do. They're all along. Gm RYAN PACE. Not Quite sure what. Ryan pace has ever really trying to do. It's amazing how far he slept right. I believe we won like executive of the year or Jim of the year in his initial season. But who it is it has been ugly since then. He is certainly on the hot seat. He knows he's on the hot seat. And that's why he brings in a veteran presence in Nick foles And that's really what this season's going to come down to because this divisions pretty wide open I think Nick foles the one thing that he's GonNa do. Pretty well is get the ball out quickly. He can get the ball out on time He's proven that he can take care of the football. His turnover worthy throw percentage are off the charts. There's a ton of familiarity here. Obviously and that's the key. I know they are saying that. This is an open quarterback competition. I don't think you're paying foles what you're paying him. Now they did restructure that deal a little bit but you gave up what fourth-rounder for him. It's a win now mentality You brought him in specifically I think to be your starter immediately. Because of his connection to Matt Nagy he's also spent time with Cuba coach John De Filippo. He spent time with Bill Laser. So there is a connection there to all three guys. The only question that you probably have in the back of your mind when it comes to Nick foles is like this could go really really well or really poorly. Because honestly foles hasn't been very good if he's not wearing an Eagles Jersey. Maybe you know it translates this time with so much. Familiarity with the coaches in the system. Jimmy Graham You know it feels like what it feels like. There's nineteen tight ends on this this roster already but the production was horrible If you look at the tight end position last year for the bears. Forty six total catches a fraction over four hundred yards in two touchdowns from the tight end position despite having a slew of tight end so What is pace do Because he couldn't find you know eighteen previous good tight ends he goes and gets Jimmy. Graham Listen if you really look at the fine print in that contract. It's a one year nine million dollar deal. It's still lot I you know. Listen I don't know how good he is now. I think he's what thirty three potentially going to be. Thirty four at some point in the midst of next season is what he is. I don't know Robert Quinn. You mentioned that's a really interesting signing it's boomer bust again and maybe that's what what pace is looking for here. He says to himself listen. I probably only have another year. Here unless things go really well Five for seventy is a big deal now again if you look into these contracts and that's the important thing to do. There's a lot of junk money on the back end of that deal. The final two years are really easy to get out of. You could make a case that this is really a two year. Thirty million dollar deal feel wanted to. It's just tough to gauge the signing. Because we don't really know what he is like. Quinn was an absolute monster in two thousand fourteen He was a monster last year with a ton of help on the cowboys defensive line but then you had a couple of seasons in between where he was injured for two seasons then. You had a team like the dolphins bring them in. They were desperate for an edge rusher. They let him go after his numbers were really horrific and he looked old right. He looked beaten and battered. Somehow though if you look at some of the metrics for that season with the dolphins who's actually number two in pass rush win rate only behind Aaron Donald during that season in Miami so very odd But in general like it's a lot of money Quinn struggles to to set the edge and stop the run. So his production is very much. Reliant on On getting to the quarterback so again for me huge boomer bus signing with with Robert Quinn. This whole division for me feels like an absolute mess and we'll see who ultimately emerges of course we talked about two teams projected finish third and fourth respectively team pegged for second with a legitimate shot to win the division crown that being the Minnesota Vikings. They had a ton of salary cap casualties. We know the direction that they were headed in. You get kirk cousins to restructure his deal and Daniel Daniel hunters deal as well to mean bless kapit. The Vikings go out there. They add Michael Pierce to make up for losing a lot of familiar faces on the defense pain. I mean you've been pretty open and honest with Vikings defense getting by more on name recognition and reputation than actual production with their any defensive losses. That you thought were going to negatively impact them or do you think the Vikings are in a situation where it's addition by subtraction headed in twenty twenty. So the big thing here is. Andre Patterson. The defensive line coach and Zimmer will now be sharing co defensive coordinator duties and we talked to your point about like how a lot of the defensive metrics were for the Vikings last season and caught some flak for that from Vikings Fans. And then days. After the season ends Zimmer cans of humorous defensive guys so you know he saw a lot of the things that we saw You mentioned some of the guys that he lost Anderson Day. How he's a guy that was basically in and out in and out and they don't think much of them at this point. Zero's we mentioned was getting up there in age was battling a bunch of injuries. Didn't have a big season. Despite somehow being a pro baller I do think the colts made a nice signing of him right. Because your hope is that. It's going to get healthy in this elongated off season yet in give much money. You're competing for a super bowl. So if he can provide that veteran presence as a physical bigger corner certainly makes more sense for the cult. Trae Wayne's you know my feelings on him already Everson Griffen. I really liked him Well he came out and said he is not returning to the Vikings at this point. You're looking at some of his. I guess what he could potentially be worth on the open market and I think he's a little shocked at this point. I did hear recently that he would prefer playing for Seattle probably some PR moves there from him and his agent knowing that today Van Clowney also prefers to stay in Seattle. And he's sense dropped his asking price so a little gamesmanship there Let's see who Seattle ultimately decided to go with. At Defense Event Lyndale Joseph would be a decent size loss in terms of a run stuffer. But you bring in Michael Pierce you can look at his numbers defensively well Baltimore wasn't great stopping the run and he was in and out of the lineup with some injuries. Last year when he was healthy and in the lineup Baltimore's Different stopping the run so Michael Pearson more than make up for linval. Joseph I think offensively. That's where it kind of you know. The A lot of people are nervous potentially about what that could mean Stefan digs departing for buffalo via trade. To me I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. I think that relationship between digs in the organization and digs and some of the players wasn't very good towards the end. Both parties were very frustrated. With how things were going. I mean listen I think digs is a is a fine player but the guy has a temper. Tantrum and a playoff game because he wasn't getting the ball. Meanwhile esteems leading on the road against saints. It's not really the kind of Guy Mike Zimmer wants in his locker room they would probably address that number two receiver position very early on in the draft Ben Linked to Denzel MIMS THE KID OUT OF BAYLOR. So let's see if potentially he's still there But that's really what it looks like for the Minnesota Vikings at this point and interesting team that I don't think has ever quite lived up to some of the expectations. We've seen kirk cousins take steps forward as far as his evolution as a franchise quarterback and we'll see if reshuffling of some of these pieces will keep Minnesota in contention for a division title and ultimately a playoff spot. That comes along with the last. But not least in the division team that we were major detractors of I drew all sorts of flack for calling them frauds. Given their record not the fact that they went out there made the playoffs and advanced all the way to the NFC championship. But those of course being the Green Bay packers last year in free agency they added four regular contributors highlighted by the Preston Area Smith. Signings we talked about last year that was uncharacteristic for Green Bay. They typically don't go out and sign high priced free agents. They elect to build through the draft with a lot of their homegrown. Talent Well we knew coming into this off season. The Green Bay wasn't going to be replicating last off season and to a certain extent they've lived up to that with minor ads and Devin funchess Rick Wagner on the offensive line Christian Kirksey and the linebacking core. You mentioned Jimmy Graham off to the bears but there are some other major defections defensively pain as well when you look at Blake Martinez. Bj goodson cuyler and on the offensive line. Brian blog has moved on to greener pastures so to speak. What did you make what Green Bay elected to do this off? Season and what the expectations will be from Bunch going into next season seeing if he can repeat some of the success he saw it as maiden voyage the divisions wide open. And it'll be interesting to see what the schedule looks like when it's released but I think from the early onset. There's an idea that based on last season the packers could be in for down here You mentioned the money. They spent on the defensive side of the ball last year. There were still some serious issues. Defensively had trouble stopping the run This secondary was improved but A lot of that was based on the schedule of quarterbacks in passing offense is that they had played so if suddenly schedule takes an uptick The secondary might not be as good as as people think. It is really. I think we're the question marks come in and the issues. A lot of people are having is offensively. What are you giving Aaron Rodgers and maybe that's GonNa come through the draft this year but I don't think signing Devin funchess Is necessarily going to be the thing that gets you over the top offensively. You'RE GONNA have to figure out how to replace Brian. Blog I know they brought in Rick Wagner. You're probably GONNA add a Lineman in the draft potentially early on This offense just needs more weapons point blank period And you have to surround him with guys that are capable and I don't think they have that right now. Certainly you're going to need a tight end. You would think I just don't think right now. Offensively this teams equipped to make a serious run. I think why you were so down on them. Last year is because of the luck factor. There are a lot of things contributing to the record. That didn't look so good metrically and again. Let's see what the schedule looks like? But I can tell you from the guys that I speak to. In the off season just generally speaking abroad sweeping brush was like. Hey the packers are probably a team that we're GONNA be looking to sell Let's see if that comes to. Fruition WANTS TO DRAFT CONCLUDES. If we see that they didn't add the necessary. Parts offensively to give Aaron Rodgers a fighting chance And then again what the schedule looks like when it does eventually release pretty crazy when you look at the way this divisional playoff with all of these teams more or less standing pat or in some cases maybe weakening their overall talent pools that you could find a team in this quartet to win ten football games but as you said we'll see what the schedules look like in that obviously be a determining factor in terms of what the True out forecast looks like for these teams and a win totals available at Fox but oftentimes very difficult to discern where there's value until you know how the week to week schedule will shape up right. You're looking at year. Two of Matt Leflore. The one thing that we saw teams do was adjust off his script. So now you're in year two getting to see what Matla floors done and we know that he doesn't usually have a counterpunch now with more familiarity of what he wants to do. That's why it's even more vital that you bring in some weapons here for Aaron Rodgers when you look at these four teams pain knowing that they haven't really done a heck of a lot at least on paper to improve themselves. We know what some of the advanced metrics suggests for regression in either a positive or negative manner. Is there a coaching staff? That you have a lot more confidence in I mean. Would it be the Vikings as clear cut runaways in this group of teams as far as hey look yes? They made some of the moves but there's a coaching staff. I think they can get the most out of its town. Where the other three the jury's still out. I think the Vikings probably are in the best position right. They're gonNA have to figure some things out. Defensively you hope with Zimmer being a little bit more hands on you know and you think digs maybe that's not as big of a deal if you can bring in a young receiver. The problem is you're probably going to need to find a veteran receiver because when you think about the transition from college to the NFL one of the toughest positions To transition to is wide receiver. And now that you're probably going to have a shortened camp That's going be even more difficult for receivers. I think to potentially get acclimated into their new or the rookie. Receivers get acclimated into these new teams. That's kind of the loan issue. There are a lot of question marks but in terms of the coaching staff Minnesota. I mean I like Matt Nagy. I really do So I think if you can get enough out of foles and you have the defense. The event is never going to be what it was two years ago. It's impossible to replicate those many turnovers but if you can improve on last year in finding a middle ground and Nick foles ends up being that Guy. Chicago is going to be right there in the mix as well at the top of this division. What what was the line from last year? Just be average. Yeah I I mean listen I let me look at the numbers here. I'm looking at Chicago and you know you look at some of the efficiency metrics and again like overall doesn't look terrible They were eighth and overall defense efficiency. They face one of the toughest schedules. But I just don't think there was. There's a lot of deficiencies there with you. Look at some of their key metrics. I think if you can improve their on the defensive side about you're not going to be what you were in two thousand eighteen but If you can get closer to that And then you get some good quarterback play at Nick foles which is is certainly possible in a familiar system. They're going to have a chance potentially to make some noise in this division should be interesting. Maybe interesting for all the wrong reasons. I'm not sure. There's a bona fide super bowl contender residing in the NFC put it doesn't it doesn't mean there is an opportunity to buy some of these teams at a low point or sell at the peak of the market and ultimately identify some value within the division. I'm GonNa give you a free pass this week. Pain for this show. At least you don't eat any net flicks recommendations any TV shows and you know what judging by the fact that you're deciding to cram frozen pizzas down your gullet in the morning. I can't even offer the opportunity for you. To provide nutrition tips to try and keep people seen through their quarantine. That you more healthy guy. I mean I've debated sending out some of these minimalist workouts and everything else that's available to try and find all these different bodyweight activities and exercises. You can perform in the smallest of apartments in garage or anything else. But Trust me when I say this You're the content guy. Well you know I try and put some of that stuff out. But I'm not going to claim to be a fitness guru by any stretch of the imagination when when it comes down to it but I am counting the days until I can actually move away and go into the gym the same way. A lot of people are looking to return to their finer restaurants. But in this time. Just tell everyone to be smart. Be Safety strategic that pertains all aspects of life. And obviously what you're doing with your bank curl keeping that thing healthy for college and pro football season any final words of advice wisdom parting shots things that you'd like to share with our loyal listeners. Pain let's it all right. Be Sure to follow pain on twitter at Paine insider. I'm top firm and you can follow me there. Most importantly as always follow the podcasts. At bent the board pod enjoy on the. I guess that's halfway through. All your free agency previews as we inch ever so close to the next major sporting event on the calendar in the NFL draft April. Twenty three to twenty five and hopefully in the interim will see you at the window.

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AFC South Football Preview: Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

Bet The Board

57:14 min | Last month

AFC South Football Preview: Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

"That thou board. We bet right. I bet you twenty bucks. I can get. You can't with forty year only fifteen grand how they pay debts men his manny. It's the board. Podcast really really like the and i could still pick winners can still make money for all kinds of people back home. Why mess up a good thing. Here's pain insider and toddler. Welcome into the bet. The board podcast powered by fan duel. Sportsbook i'm your host todd firm and joined as always by my colleague and co-host pain insider but before we get to pain. This is the perfect time to remind you to go to fan. Duel dot com slash. The board take advantage of all the generous sign up. Bonus fan duels bringing to you just in time for football season available to all new users on the sports book and casino side sign up. Make your first deposit on fan duel. Sportsbook receive a psych credit. If you lose within seventy two hours but we know here but the board our players don't lose so you'll have that to jump start things promotion only open to individuals or at least twenty one years of age and physically present in states where operates in pain. You know we're not even into the heart and soul of the football season and a little birdie told me you might be a little bit under the weather not quite operating one hundred percent capacity this morning survive in advance. That's that's what this is about so we are here and we're talking afc south. I'm just trying to figure out if the actual digging into the afc south is what caused me bill. But under the weather i mean it's probably known to induce more of a stomach. Flu a visceral throwing up type reaction than anything else that i can say is now a new have three divisions left to go from top to bottom. This is the worst division in the national football league. Of course i'll probably after each one of these teams finds a way to win twelve games but at the same time the houston texans jacksonville. Jaguars yikes and we'll see what we get from the top division in the indianapolis colts and of course the tennessee. Titans but because you're a little bit under the weather we'll save that breath on on useless banter and we'll get right into the teams themselves but before we do so you want off up a friendly reminder for a contest they continues to grow by the day over one thousand entries already go to bet the board contests dot com. It is our annual. Nfl pick five contest against the spread every week. There is a winner as long as well as some season long winters. Six thousand dollar prize pool so at the board contest dot com sign up. Make sure you follow all the rules. You're eligible for prizes and I think at this pace could have over three thousand and that is the goal. We want to have the biggest and best contest to date. And if you happen to miss any of those details that pain shared follow the bet twitter feed you'll see all the rules and regulations their pain and i continue to re tweeted up until kickoff of opening weekend to encourage you to do that. But let's kick things off and this may be more two minute drill as we go through the division in alphabetical order. Starting with the houston texans who find themselves listed at a robust twenty three to one to win the division their win total at fan duel. Sportsbook sits at four dollar twenty. Should you want to go under. It's amazing when you look at the houston texans overall profile just a year and a half ago. This very franchise headache. Twenty four seven lead over the kansas city chiefs in the playoffs. We were all talking about them. Maybe getting to the afc championship as cinderella. And here we are a franchise completely in shambles most likely without a franchise quarterback and really lacking direction When you look at the houston texans worse record against playoff teams last year owen. Ten and this is despite to shawn watson putting gaudy numbers but pain rather than breakdown. What the texans don't have on either the offense or defensive side of the ball. should we attacked a coaching. Hire david kelly takes over as the oldest first time head after twenty seven years of serving as an nfl assistant. I'm not really sure what's going on with the organization and we're seeing the market react in a strong manner. I mean this total has been blitzed from under five in this morning. You look some places. And it's four under minus twenty five so like three point eight five the win total here. So there isn't a lot of confidence in the texans. And you start to look at what this roster is and it's tough to find wins on the schedule with who they're going to be trotting out there. I mean we talked about to shawn watson. And how fantastic. He was over. The last five decades seven quarterbacks have had as good of a season as to sean had last year and they finished with a losing record. Only seven quarterbacks. In the history of this league have played as well as the shawn watson team finished with a losing record so an shawn watson texans last year. That was the worst record of any of those quarterbacks so it really just shows how talent void this roster is and somehow you mentioned the new regime bringing in an old coach in cali but the organization really doubled down on that approach and they've managed the impossible really of having the oldest roster in the nfl with below average cap space. It's not a good combination. And so you know you start to look at the four wins last year and how they achieved it and it was still an offense that was above average inefficiency thirteenth. And now you have this. Massive downgraded quarterback and i mean tyrod taylor is what he has. He's thirty two and the best attributes about him are his athleticism his quickness. How fast he is but at thirty two those of all those things and so this is just a monster downgrade. You do look at the schedule of defenses. That the texans will play its. It's bottom six overall and against the oh. There is some hope there. I guess defensively that is going to still be a problem. You're looking at a unit that finished thirtieth inefficiency. The schedule of offense is this year are going to be really good. Can be hovering around the top. Five rate in basically overall efficiency passing offense all of those key areas I i don't really know how this team's going to get to their win. Total and i think that's probably the interesting part about this. Like what is the texans game plan for the season. And i think that's really the important part trying to figure out if the market has priced taxes properly. Because you look at where they opened where it is now. Nobody's projecting the texans only when three point eight five games but we also know. The jaguars weren't a one in fifteen team last year. Either and so there's ways to tank without actually making it obvious and it's when guys have nagging injuries. That could absolutely play. If games were important. Start to sit out and the guy under center that makes you most competitive gets benched. I mean we saw jacksonville last year. There is not a reason in the world. Mike glennon and jake are playing eight games air. Utah gloria dear. Utah poorly about jake lieutanant amount of money. He made us oregon state beaver. That is true so i. That's the part that you really have to figure out. Is you know the roster. Construction really boggles my mind. It's just got so many vets on it. It makes me nervous that the texans won't actually throw in the towel unless ownership demands you know callum. Mcnair start seeing like one of the college. Qb's look like the second coming and then all of a sudden he's like we we need to tank. And you know maybe get davis mill some reps here. The last half of the season but based upon the roster construction. I'm not getting that vibe And so that would make me a little nervous to tail the steam and the professionals going under at a far worse number. You know it's so interesting because you look at the texans. They had one draft pick in the top one hundred. And they use it on davis mills. Which leads you to believe. Either they're gonna throw his feet to the fire early on or maybe they do think that this is their franchise quarterback potentially if they drafted number one overall. Because the texans do things in will be nice and say or unorthodox manner that they would go after a guy like cave on tibet. If he was to be the first guy off the board to try and pick up a pass rusher but you mentioned the defense and this is a group that ally allowed more than five yards per carry the worst by any team since two thousand twelve. They surrendered thirty. Touchdown passes in route to that. Thirty overall defensive efficiency metric enforced only three interceptions not exactly a recipe for success. And when you look at their aging backfield pain. I'm not quite sure that if we played in over forty league you'd want mark ingram. Philip lindsay david johnson sharing the responsibilities toting the rock so this is a team from a fantasy relevant standpoint that maybe it's branding cooks nobody else but other than that. It definitely will be interesting to see how they're priced and a week in week out basis but from the seller to a team trying to figure out who exactly will be under center for week one. We have an idea of who. It'll be going forward but you look in the indianapolis colts and they're a plus one forty underdog to win the afc south now. It comes with the caveat that that number has drifted out with the injuries to carson. Wentz quinton nelson. They were favorites or co-favorites depending on where you shop when those guys were expected to be in the fold you look at their win. Total at fan duel sportsbook and. It's interesting because it's eight and a half. You have lay substantial price at a dollar forty five to go over and when you look at this colts team. Eleven wins last season. Where the most. By the franchise since two thousand fourteen they are seeking their first division title since two thousand fourteen but they were relatively fortunate as far as turnover differential is concerned second in the league behind only the titans and when you look at their schedule composition it starts off difficult but seems to calm down a little bit where they may have a chance to make some hay but paying. That's the biggest question. Ken frankly i get carson wentz to perform like the carson wentz we saw in two thousand seventeen or is this reclamation project that was best left in philadelphia good question i do want to start with a little bit of a story which you know about and it was probably july twenty second twenty third. We were ready to fire a really large amount on this colts under ten. And i wanted to do it before. I left town on the twenty sixth and you and i talked a little bit about you know this potentially coming down the pike and my guys gonna talk me off at timing wise know. Wait wait till you get back and we want to verify one more thing. Yada yada yada and i'm on vacation. I see the schefter tweet. Hit my phone about wentz and nelson going down. And i think no less than twelve cuss words were viewed in public. I think people thought i had tax. And so now you're looking at the market. Basically like eight point six. When you factor in the vague and the reports of whence and nelson appear to be on early side of the five to twelve week timeline. And so. I'm almost getting intrigued by the over now and i'm not sure that becomes anything. Maybe we're getting a little too cute. But i do lean that way now and there were some positive reports about once looking great before going down but for me. Any by in on the colts. As more predicated in has been with like ballard and reich and the intel on wednesday was really good to hear. But i just amount a point where i need to see it to believe it and we are getting to a point where we all know that once his best season in two thousand seventeen came with frank reich by side show if you like the colts. That's the sentiment. You're going to hear right. That he and reich are on the same page spiritually and their friends on and off the field. Frank's going to be able to fix his confidence in his mechanics. But i go back to two thousand seventeen and actually look at carson's numbers and there was a lot of noise like a ridiculous amount of luck and fortune in some of those numbers and whence excelled basically multiple deviations pass the norm and both third down and red zone passing sixty. Two percent of whence red zone passes great. Successful led the league by long mile. If you remove the various areas of red zone and third down whence went from the second best quarterback in epa replied twenty-third and since two thousand seventeen is twenty seventh an adjusted yards per attempt factoring in opponent only andy dalton your boy maserati match and sam darnold are worse over that stretch and so when you really go and look at wentz. He's been average too bad every year of his career. If you remove the red zone in third down metrics from two thousand seventeen so for me. This isn't just stay. Flip of the switch where you start to rub elbows with frank again and like all the problems are solved and you start to look at some of the roster composition and you're down anthony costanzo you lose your old world left tackle. That's not easy to replace. And i think we've talked over the years todd and it's a really small sample size but anthony costanzo impact on the colts is tough to ignore. He's missed sixteen games over his career. Indianapolis only one twenty five percent of those and in the games that costanzo has played. They won fifty five percent of those games. The team averages three less points in games that costanzo hasn't played. And i know the hope is that eric fisher fills the void but he tours achilles in the afc championship game and he's danced around the question all offseason and said he's not putting a time line on things. It would sound like a best case. Scenario for eric fisher. Returning is the middle of the season. Now there are some things to be excited about. Michael pittman in year to paris campbell. Finally voi- t y hilton. Yeah you know you have. Ty hilton who did show. He had some juice. Left in the tank in zach pastels pretty decent third or fourth option. And i know internally. The colts like this receiver group more than the outside world. By far and the other positive is the colts offense going gonna face a schedule of defenses projected to be bottom five overall against the pass and impasse rush so there are some positives here. But you're hearing all the reports about the offense just looking horrific and really the only bright spot to the offense has been jonathan taylor so even once you get once back. He hasn't had this off season to get acclimated with his new team-mates. The rest of the players on this offense and catching passes from guys. That are backups. So even if wednesday's able to return week one what does it look like at the early part of the season when the schedules most difficult. So that that's going to be interesting to navigate this team right off. The bat definitely challenges. I mean you'd like to see some software landing spots knowing that wentz didn't have that continuity with some of his skill position players in that offensive line. But you know as we've mentioned things are going to start pretty hot and heavy right out of the gates. They'll subside a little bit. But how big a hole could the colts potentially dig for themselves. And you mentioned jonathan taylor just to kind of put in perspective what he was able to accomplish last season as he took on a bigger workload down the stretch. He joined some of the colts. All time greats in edgerrin james and marshall faulk with one thousand plus yards in a season and ten touchdowns led all rookies with scrimmage yards and touchdowns as well so taylor. Coming out of wisconsin. There were high expectations. A lot of skepticism. Early on with a slow start but really came on late when the colts needed to lean on. And you saw that tribute to an offense that found its stride under philip rivers leadership over the latter portion of the schedule. Now the one thing for the colts pain when you break down this roster years ago we would have talked about this all offense no defense. They've done a significantly better job. Bolstering the talent group as far as the stop units concern antoine woods and quit. Pay come in pay. Of course the first round pick out of michigan you do lose some contributors in the likes of anthony walker justin houston to nico autry emily cooker but the reality of it is. The colts have to bona fide. Stars at different levels on this defense deforest buckner upfront and darius leonard in all world linebacker number to rush defense. A season ago held opponents. Well under four yards per carry. Do you think what we've seen from the colts. Defensively is sustainable. Going forward and reasonably that mattie Can continue to pull the right strings with this group. All of the reports from campus. I said is the colts defense has just been dominant. And that's ben even with some injuries up front like buckner hasn't played much this During this camp and so it's it's really an interesting unit on the surface though. It wouldn't shock me if we saw defensive aggression it really. Wouldn't i know last year. People thought the colts defense was elite. And i just couldn't get around to believing that honestly solid no doubt but but not elite. And i think the only way. This defense gets to elite if kuwaiti pay who you mentioned who had the number one highest pressure rate coming out in the draft is the real deal and guys like louis and tura in benigo. Take the next step. I think there's questions in the secondary india's in search for the third corner if you've done some reading and it's basically between kerry and rock you send their neck and neck for that role visits secondary that finished twenty ninth and explosive pass defense last year. I think there are other holes that a lot of people might not have recognized unless you really do. Some deep diving and it was shocking. Because you see it unfold as you're watching these games and then you go back and dig into the numbers afterwards and you get that confirmation that your eyes aren't lying to you but third down defense not very good. And you mentioned having the highest paid linebacker dairies leonard. Somehow indy was twenty seven. Defending running back passes very mediocre getting after the quarterback fifteenth and pass rush win rate eighteenth and actual pressuring in. Those numbers came against the sixth worst schedule of pass blocking the line. So india has to step up that part of their game if they are going to even be on par as last year. You have to replace your secondary coach. Jonathan gannon who was promoted to defensive coordinator position and a lot of people think that he is really one of the upcoming defensive minds. And i think we discussed this a little bit when we broke down the nfc east podcast but gannon has really taken a large role or had a large role rather and the week. We gain plants that india was putting on the field defensively and he was credited with the game. Plan that shut mahomes and the chiefs down at arrowhead when they were shorthanded at quarterback and then you look at the schedule huge culture culture projected to face a top five schedule of offenses overall in the top five schedule passing offenses and last year. If you remember we were kind of telling people like hey the the defense is doing really well to start the season but kind of just hold off and wait until you know they start facing some actual decent quarterbacks. I mean they started the season. Last year facing gardner. Menchu's sam darnold fulls. You had a rookie and joe borough. You got baker mayfield before he was actually playing well and acclimated to stefanski system. The best quarterback that indie face the first seven weeks last year was kirk cousins. And so this doesn't feel like a defense that is going to compete to be a top five unit which most people believe. That's the case. It feels more like a unit in that like nine to thirteen range for me when you look at this tax tax. Excuse me indianapolis colts schedule. I know we've both mentioned it. If somehow indianapolis could be sitting four and three going into halloween weekend with a seven game start to the season that includes home dates against seattle. And the rams a trio of road games back to back to back little culminate in a monday night. Football game at baltimore's at tennessee. At miami at baltimore you get a little bit of a breather against the houston texans and then travel across the country to take on the forty niners and sunday night football. And that's where you have to k- so if you can go into that stretch foreign three even three and four you'll get a trio of home dates against the titans jets and jags the other thing for the colts. They don't get there by week until week. Fourteen so you better make sure that things are working in the right manner because you're not going to have that awfully to fix things early on if you can't get the offense headed in the right direction. That's what's really interesting because if you just kind of look at the schedule the early portion of it the first eight weeks it appears much more difficult than the actual rating. And i think if you want you. Remove the texans from the equation. It really becomes one of the tougher schedules. The first two months of the season all of those teams in that area right that that they're facing are nine. Ten wind teams based on. The oddsmakers is just the texans at like three point. Eight five which is really skewing. Where the tech where The colts schedule lies. The first eight weeks of the season is a difficult schedule the first two months again. That's going to be really important to monitor because once just hasn't had off season in this new system with these new players around him and it's going to be an adjustment period early on for sure definitely a team to watch week to week and see. What kind of improvements will get from indianapolis as everybody can get on the same page but from the indianapolis colts chew intriguing team northern florida that of course being the jacksonville jaguars you look at their price to win. The afc south fan sports book. I'll listing them at six to one. That number has come down from his high as eleven to one earlier. This off season. But you look at their window. And i think this is extremely interesting six and a half you do have to lay a buck and a quarter to go under may speak to the volatility the variance or whatever other adjective. You want to use in defining the afc south a division. That may only take nine wins to end up top of the heap. But when you look at the jags incomes regime change led by urban meyer. When you look at urban. And what he's done we'd be foolish to be detractors. About what are you -ccomplish at the college level and overnight impact every step of the way he was one hundred eighty seven thirty two in college. One of the best coaches in the modern era but came under scrutiny at the tail end of time obviously in gainesville florida and of course it ohio state where the offense looked a heck of a lot more dynamic with ryan day calling the shots when you look at the jags franchise as a whole one playoff appearance in thirteen years. Finish last season on a fifteen game losing streak. You talked about it though. A lot of that artificially manufactured to try and set them up to win the trevor learn sweepstakes the only team to rank bottom three in both scoring offense and scoring defense last year. And you look at the overall upgrade intel and a lot of exciting youth on the roster but it may take a little while pain for them all come with age. Yeah mansa i your quarterback. It's a first time. Nfl coach lots of mixed coordinators and assistant coaches. This can take some time and having watched the browns. Jack's saturday night. The offense looked a little slow to me. And then i went and listened to urban post-game presser. He said we didn't get plays in fast enough. Our players didn't process and snap quick enough. And then trevor lawrence indicated that this is a real large adjustment from college because he used to just look to the sideline to get the play. And now it's coming in through his helmet. And if you'll look jacksonville average like twenty seven seconds between plays against the browns. That would've actually made them the twelfth fastest offense last season so i think it's really important to note that for pace perspective if urban thinks above average tempo is snail like and rants about for ten minutes. So you know little piece of information there that that could have some impact weekly on on some of the jags totals. now what is interesting is lawrence. Didn't look overly comfortable. And i'm not really sure what's going on. Because the best way to get him comfortable. Just by throwing gobs of reps at him and whether it's trying to enhance gardens shoes trade value or whatever's going on their urban can have his number one pick learning this brand new offense in a transition to the nfl exploiting first team. Reps it in gamp like you have to figure out like trevor lawrence has to be your guy right like he you have to give him every snap he can get and that's really not what's going on at camp which is really bizarre to me. Daryl bevill this boy yes and it's probably not going to be much of his offense. You know i. It's about adapting to urban defensive vision really and we know what urban meyer's college offenses were and you just wonder if something that basic can work when you don't have you know five star kids going against three stars and the opponents you're gonna face each week in the nfl. Their only focus football and basically urban just runs a power spread. He wants to run the ball. A lot of the passing concepts are horizontal and not vertical. And you hit this perfectly. Because we've talked about ryan day since he's been at ohio state leading the show. He's really opened up. Ohio state's offense to a little bit more verticality. And i just think it's interesting. Maybe that changes right when you have trevor lawrence throwing a knock guys like j. t. barrett. So maybe we do more vertical passing attack. But that's that needs to happen because you can't just limit you know this game to hand the ball off a bunch and try to overpower people and then just run a bunch of tempo and make short passes over the millfield like it's just not a complex offense and that's going to be really interesting to see if it works this level you talk about the offensive line. That's in front of trevor lawrence. They have to be better somehow. It's the most expensive offensive line in the nfl and they were top ten in health last season yet. They finished outside the top twenty five in both pass block win rate and run block win right. So i mean if you're going to allocate that much money to a position they can't be horrific and you have to give your rookie quarterback who's being thrown into the fire chance. If you're looking at this team in the big guys up front can improve then. Jacksonville's offense has a chance to be respectable. There should be a little bit of a built in advantage of not knowing what's coming especially early on and that does mesh pretty well with the schedule because the first six weeks jacksonville plays the second easiest schedule in the nfl and then they hit their bye week. And you can load more on trevor's play and adjust and may be counter to some of the defensive adjustments that you've seen from week one to six both the schedule of running past defense. Jacksonville faces a season project to be below average. So that's that's a positive. There's decent offense pieces that i think. Urban lawrence get to work with james robinson was a really pleasant surprise. You kind of pinpointed that one early that saved your of your fantasy team last year guy the pride of illinois state. Pick them up off that waiver wire right before the season two. I had a ma pretty much from start to finish. He definitely pay dividends. that's for sure. Yeah so i mean that was a guy who had over. Fourteen hundred scrimmage yards through fourteen weeks the most. Nfl history for an undrafted rookie. And if he didn't sustain an injury and missed the final few weeks he would have blown through the rushing record to. Marvin jones was a fantastic value. Add two years. Only nine million guaranteed. He was top twenty in value above average receivers. Dj shark had a breakout year in two thousand nineteen over one thousand yards with eight touchdowns in a two percent drop rate on one hundred and fourteen targets. So i know he's working his way back from a broken finger. Urban meyer claims. He's going to be ready for a week one. That will be interesting to monitor if you can get a bounce back from him. He's been pretty open and saying that he got frustrated last year with the team success and it impacted him personally and he claims he's in a better mental space now and again like who can blame the guy for eight games. He had mike glennon j clinton throwing him the ball again. More jake lunch shots. Christ almighty give the guy show the guy some mercy here pain. You also have Chenault who had a really good rookie season considering the circumstances and maybe he plays a little bit more in the slot only played twenty eight percent of snaps their last year. But if you have charcoal jones outside channel have to adjust. What's interesting though before i kind of. And this is that digging into some of the historical data since two thousand thurs ben. Thirteen college coaches making the transition to the nfl for the very first time urban meyer's number fourteen and of that group. Only nick sabin with the finns. Jim harbaugh with the forty niners. Kelly's eagles have produced a better than average team by the metrics year. One the other nine coaches have fallen about ten and a half percent alone average football team in year one. So it's something to think about that. You know running an elite college football program and trying to do the same thing at the. Nfl is is really freaking difficult. It's virtually a different game altogether and layer into that. You don't have a veteran quarterback either to lean on his experience in terms of getting team in and out of the huddle and creating some of that locker room leadership. Trevor lawrence will get there but asking that of him in his first season might be a bit much. Andrew lock was actually the first are. Excuse me the last rookie quarterback to post a winning record in his first season the last jaguars quarterback to go to the pro bowl. You ask the pride of east carolina. David garard back before two thousand ten. Now defensively pain when we look at the jags. Thirty first in scoring and total defense. They gave up more than four hundred yards and ten of sixteen games. I mean they weren't able to get to the opposing quarterback and they couldn't stop the run. That's not exactly a great combination of things to be able to do. Defensively what. I was surprised by looking at the roster that miles jack is the only player that remains from that division winning defense back in two thousand seventeen now. There's a lot of young talent to get excited about. Whether it's chase out of lsu or josh allen need to be good rushers this defense still seems to be at least a year if not longer away from moving into that top half of the league. The bars real low here and you mentioned they finished thirty. First and defensive efficiency overall urban made a good hire here. He brought in joe colin debuts. Dc's been the ravens d. Line coach the last five seasons. So the pedigree's there there's a couple nice front seven pieces talent. Wise in you mentioned many of those guys josh allen and miles jack and jason i think the question is can call and get those three guys production levels to match the talent and i think josh allen has the potential to be great. It's going to be a big year for him. Miles jack has never been elite though and the guy largely responsible for having jack last year with this. Massive turnaround in production was joe schubert. He basically allowed jack to be more free flowing and make plays sideline to sideline jacksonville just trader. My way to pittsburgh this week. Jason is interesting. he's nothing but really raw talent at this point he doesn't have a natural position. He was better in coverage in creating pressure but was still below average in both he was horrific holding up at the point of attack and tackling. He doesn't have a ton of bend so he really didn't materialize into a natural. Pass rusher jacksonville. I think is gonna find out pretty quickly. If he's part of the rebuild or not but you do chasing remove like this is now. What two years removed from the acl tear. So maybe that helps. The secondary was a bit of a mixed bag last year of really young guys or old players just hanging on and not a good combination especially when they were facing the third tougher schedule of offense last year. Jacksonville finished thirtieth in defense pass. Efficiency twenty-fifth in explosive pass defense. It just wasn't good. You know and i do think there is some level of hope in the new system that it being more aggressive might help across the board but even with the improved talent and some of the scheme shifts i. I'm not quite sure there's enough talent here. The schedule won't be as difficult this season of passing offenses which is good. Cj henderson. i must like him more than jacksonville does. because he's being shopped around already. The saints have called multiple times about him. Here's the ninth. Pick only played eight games last year. I can't figure out how they wouldn't value him. But i guess maybe it's a scheme thing the jags signed shaquille griffin. And sean jenkins to bolster the secondary and then with the thirty third pick took tyson campbell out of georgia. There has been some hinting from joe. Colin that he is going to basically become baltimore junior with how they operate defensively. And there's gonna be a little bit of a transition to three or four scheme so the corner position like. I don't know why you would attempt to get rid of c. j. anderson because you're coroners are going to be asked to hold up one on one and i would expect a ton of blitzing baltimore's defense that finished number one in blitz rate the last three seasons so expect jacksonville to look something like that. It was funny watching. The preseason game is almost like even though. The browns weren't playing their starters stefanski in that coaching staff or so. Sharpen smart that they actually game plan for a ton of pressure. So i know you were at the raiders game but you're just a ton of screens early on to negate that pressure. It's like they knew at joe collin wanted to do and in a preseason week one game. They kind of schemed for it which is really funny. So you know. I expect jacksonville's defense to look something like baltimore's just in the the scheme and what they wanna do now. The talent isn't quite there in. Maybe this helps chase on improve. We know dave aranda at lsu used a three four and allowed jason the come off the edge standing up because he has been horrific with his hand in the dirt but maybe that helps but just based on on scheme and some added talent here in the schedule easing up attach and some some positive progression for the jags pressure rate. I think that means that they're going to improve your. I mean you just look at some of the pressure eight stuff. They finished eleventh in. Pass rush win right but it only translated to twenty in the twenty seventh and pressure rate. So that's going to improve look positive aggression so across the board here. I think you know we're not talking about an average defense. I don't think but i also think they'll make a move from being one of the league's worst. Maybe just bad. This year should be an interesting team to watch. We know a lot about the star power. That's there. I think they're going to have a ton of is and expectations with urban meyer at the helm along with the number overall pick and trevor lawrence. It may not show up as early as we one for. The jags will be in the unenviable role of having a first year. Head coach and a first year starting quarterback as a road favourite even against the texans. But we'll see how things manifest the deeper we get into the campaign perfect time to remind all of you our loyal listeners to go to fan duel dot com slash. Bet the board sign up. If you're in new user take advantage of the generous promos that are available to you a thousand dollars free play right there at your disposal just in time for football season. Also follow the podcast app at the board pod. All of the details about joining the the board football free role right there and readily available for you. Make sure your adhering to all of those. So should you win a week and you can take on the swag pack or finish atop the heap and take on the prestigious bet the board trophy no greater accomplishment in all handicapping this fall. You've course can follow. Paint on twitter at paine insider and i am todd firm and follow me as well pain when we look at the tennessee. Titans They are now the favorites to win the afc south at minus a buck ten. You look at their win total. It's nine fan. Duel sportsbook shaded to the over minus a dollar fifty. There are some nine and a half out there where you can go under when you look at the tennessee. Titans resume from a season ago. They won eleven games and the division title for the first time since two thousand eight but this group only returns twelve of twenty. Two starters fused of any team in the national football league they also had tremendous fortune in the turnover department where they were plus eleven. They were seven and two one score games. And when you look at this team it was all about offense. Top five as far as offensive efficiency and ranks were concerned bottom five defense and the same can be applied to the red zone metrics in his todd downing for arthur smith departed to take over as head coach. The atlanta falcons shane. Bowen takes over as defensive. Coordinator we'll get to the titans defense in a second but when you look at this offense pain we know. The big headline acquisition was julio jones for me. I look at a team. That lost corey davis loss. Adam humphreys and john who smith and see who jones in jazz reynolds may not be an upgrade when you consider that julio has been far from truly elite over the last couple seasons but all that being said you can't argue how much different that falcons. Offense looked when julio is out there compared to when he missed extended periods of time. The titans are one of the world's largest anomalies right now and nobody knows what's going on or really how the hell happening cry because y- a higher defensive coordinator is your head coach and the defense is are dreadful and you bring in a quarterback that was really cast aside by qb. Needy my own miami organization and you yourself made him a backup initially and then you have this very upright running back. That's slow to get started and doesn't really fit today's style as a lead back and really was thought of minimally after the first two seasons in the league and then he's run for almost thirty six hundred yards the last two seasons. It's really something out of the twilight zone for tennessee. None of it makes sense here. We are you know and you mentioned todd downing coming in the re probably better candidates but my understanding is he was promoted because tennessee didn't want change. He knows the scheme he knows the key players. Tendencies he knows what's worked the last two years and hasn't he knows the terminology so none of that should change. You just hope. The play calling is on par of arthur smith because when downing was calling plays in two thousand seventeen for the raiders he used third lowest play action rate in the entire league. Ryan tannehill has been mostly successful throwing with play action. The titans use it almost thirty seven percent of passes last season. That was a league high rate. And you just look at. How much better. Tanna hill is with play action. I mean yards per attempt dot both increased more than two and a half yards play action it's passer rating was one ten so you downing can't really deter too far from what's made the titans offense successful not just a lot of play action. So hopefully he's cognizant of this. He understands it and he changes his ways. Even though that might not be the style of offense he wants to run the other element here is derrick henry. And even if you're the biggest titans fan. Twenty two hundred scrimmage yards. You can only go in one direction. And the fact that henry's had eight hundred and twenty seven touches the last two seasons including you know you had to play off runs in there may just. I don't know if the body at this level can handle that kind of beating you know. Three hundred and ninety six of those touches were handoffs last season. And if you look at some of the historical data running backs that have carried the ball. Three hundred seventy times and how. They perform the very next season. It's not very good. And you can see injuries. Start to creep up. The amount of carey's year-over-year on average has shrunk forty three percent due to injuries following the season of three hundred seventy carries in terms of production. This is really scary because the number just sinks if you look at defense adjusted yards above replacement the year running backs have three hundred seventy plus carries in. Compare that the very next season the running backs of only contributed about nine percent of the yards above replacement the following year on average. So i mean it has just been this massive drop now. I'm not saying at twenty seven that that was going to happen or the drop is going to be that precipitous with with derrick henry. And certainly you know the offense revolves around him. And we see defenses going smaller to kind of play with the passing times of the league in in derrick. Henry really doesn't have a problem running over small linebackers but you just wonder at some point if this catches up to him across the board offensively. I would expect some level of aggression. You mentioned some of the luck. Metrics at the top ryan tannehill manufactured. Six game winning drives last season. That's not a normal right. The schedule of defense is the titans face go from well below average. Two top ten both overall lien against the pass. The run schedule is above average as well and i kind of wanted to discuss some other things but getting to your point specifically at the top with julio jones i mean i love him absolute freak and even the games that he played last year he was a top five receiver whose elite but you have to gauge julio jones as a thirty two year old receiver replacing one of the most productive receivers last season. Corey davis was twenty three percent better than average receiver. He was fifth in yards per outrun. So how much can. Julio jones really be an upgrade over that production and that's how you have to gauge it. Too many people are going to hear the name and assume upgrade because julio jones namesake is better than corey davis but you have to compare it to the production and so for there not to be a drop off. Julio's gotta be top five and that's a really high bar to clear here so i am kind of sharing the same sentiments as you when it comes to what. Julio jones is thirty two. I think he's still fantastic but for there not to drop off i. He's gotta be elite and that's that's a big question. Yeah i'm not sure you wanna tell that titans fans who believe they're getting julio jones in the peak of his career and while i know there's always noise in the numbers and some of this statistical production for julio is last couple of years in atlanta has declined given the emergence of calvin ridley. It's still a receiver. Who went from one hundred five yards per game receiving two thousand eighteen to ninety two point nine in two thousand nine thousand nine hundred and bottomed out last year. Eighty five and change. He also missed seven games. A season ago in the one bugaboo. Julio whether it was the atlanta offense matt ryan or julio himself. He's never been a bona fide. Red zone threat he disappears when you get down towards the goal on now of course having a running mate. J brown who i believe has the potential to really elevators level of play to truly elite this season. You do wonder and let's see what they get out of anthony At the tight end. But to kind of put a bow. On what you were talking about with derrick henry for those folks who expect him to perform at levels that we've seen the last couple years you have to go no further than a dive into some of the prop markets that are available and even with the addition of a seventeenth. Game mean the over-under on henry's rushing yards depending on where you look in the mid fourteen hundred of course. There's a caveat built in there that you have to account for injury and such. But if derrick henry only has fourteen to fifteen hundred rushing yards this year. Where do the titans go to pick up the rest of the productivity. I don't think farrington. Evans is that same kind of back. So all things to consider when you look at the titans offense knowing how well they performed in the red zone and such and we'll be expected of them because pain. It's a defense. It's going to be completely remade incomes. Bud duprey off of a torn acl from pittsburgh to help bolster pass rush that was non existent. They spend some money. In the secondary which enormous jenkins they draft caleb farley you bring into nico autry. Elijah moulton imani hooker. Apparently hooker is the guy. That's really getting rave reviews so far and camp. You lose devon cloudy. Malcolm butler dorie jackson who i think i played as many games as members of the titans dory did and that secondary along with kenny vaccaro. But again you mentioned it. You're the first one to bring it to my attention. You know years ago when a team doesn't do what a head coach is brought into kind of put his fingerprints on. It's an immediate cause for concern and the titans last year defensively. I don't know if there's enough time to go into all the metrics where they were in the bottom of the barrel as far as How that unit performed will they keep making. The playoffs in the offense has been elite. So variables been getting a pass. But i think we've made our feelings known and i would even go as far as saying. We started the movement on variables. Defense as being extremely underwhelming and with rebel in tennessee. He's never had a defense finish above average inefficiency. Eighteenth eighteenth and twenty ninth. So if it's not for hitting the lotto with tannehill and arthur smith in henry basically simultaneously like variables. Probably coordinator somewhere. Now the defense has a chance to improve and give rebel credit. He's at least willing to acknowledge the downfall because you bring in a new defensive coordinator and there's probably going to be five new starters and there's a lot of change this offseason. There are some nice pieces just a matter of health but debris we outlined his effectiveness on the afc north podcast. But i mean this guy who had the fastest time of any defender and in games where he did not play his running mate. Tj wants pressure rate dropped ten percent so depre- was fantastic last year top five and disruption rate if he can mimic that type of season again. It's going to go a long way to improve the titans defense. But he's eight months removed from acl surgery. He's still not a for a full participant practice yet. So you got to monitor that. And if you've heard buds comments in the press it's basically like he is ready to go but the teams holding back. Now that's a positive sign that he's ready to roll and he's not wearing an embrace but we'll see if you can be as effective and then you do get jay on brown back which is huge. He's going to be healthy now in the middle of your defense. He was solid in pass. Defense top twenty five in yards allowed per coverage nap at the linebacker position. Benico autry i think is a solid piece. Nothing elite but a plus defender and i think moving him inside only. He's not a true end. Which is where the colts played them a lot last year. But if you can slide him right into jeff. Right next to jeffrey simmons. I think that will help him. And then they threw a bunch of audience at the cornerback problem. And that's still the question. More because i don't know what you norris jenkins's at at thirty two. He's probably still a plus defender but there were times last year where he would get beat. Caleb farley is the first rounder from attack. he's dealt with a bunch of back injuries. He's still working his way back but if he's healthy he has a chance to be solid. And you know there's still some question marks i think in there's going to be a reliance on guys that are either coming off. Injury haven't proven themselves or getting up there in age but it's impossible not to improve. And i think the ultimate question becomes is if the defense improves by fifteen or twenty percent but the offense regresses by fifteen or twenty percent and we know offense is far more valuable overall. The titans are still going to regress as a team. The problem is todd when you attempt to potentially fade. Titans like what makes you nervous in division. And that's really the issue on like why we have an attempted to fade them yet and go under the nine and a half because jacksonville even though they took some some money from pros over six. And that's why they're at six and a half. We're starting to like you get a first glimpse of that offense. And i know it's the first preseason game but it didn't really leave you warm and fuzzy and then you've had the colts injury issues and you know we were initially going to fade them and then you have houston so it's really tough to attempt to make a case. Even though the titans are going to regress it's just a difficult way of figuring out how to fade them. But i think probably week to week might be the best way to go about that. I mean that's the great part about the betting market is you can have strong sentiments about teams overall outlook for a season and bet their win. Total over under or you can try and attack the divisional markets. But if you feel there's going to be some various volatility that's the great luxury we have is better that bookmakers don't where you're going to get ample opportunity to honor against some of these teams and the titans have all that potential to fit that bill. I'm definitely curious pain. Because there's two fan base is that i'm intimately connected to on a variety levels having done a ton of media work and in chicago. I've been injured tractor so far of justin fields just kind of tampering. Those expectations and people want to run me out of town. There and yesterday in nashville. I talked about the titans defense and how yes fresh faces are good but expecting them to look like the eighty five. Bears probably not realistic in any stretch of the imagination. And heaven forbid you say that this titans offense could take a step back. They'll run you out of town with pitchforks and fires at the end of those sticks so an interesting division for all the wrong reasons in my opinion s- clearly someone's going have to win it and figure out what these teams are on a weekend out basis. Follow the podcast at the board pod on twitter. Follow pain on twitter as well at paine insider. i'm todd furman and sign up for the bet. The board football free all the details right there on our twitter feed go to fan duel sportsbook dot com take advantage of the generous sign up offers. That are there. Make sure you use the code. The board and pain. I don't want to keep you too long. You've been a soldier. You're so far getting through four teams in the worst division football while performing it maybe sixty percent of capacity as far as your voices concerned but there is one final order business to transact and our listeners know. We didn't say there was going to be a best better win. Told or anything else to sink their teeth into on every show during the preseason. Run up this year. But is there an opportunity whether it's a season-long outlook or maybe even a week to preseason game you feel is worth a small investment. No one knows this. But you are the real. Mvp of this podcast. Because we have new microphones this season and for whatever reason. I wasn't sure that there was a mute button on here but that has come in handy as i swallow some cough drops and drink some hot tea throughout this process. It's basically been on mute every time i'm not speaking Let's go with what we discussed last night. And if you wanna deliver it to save my voice that would be much appreciated. Sure it'll be a preseason game bat number four twenty two. That would be the minnesota vikings as modest favorites. I know we talked about it. We'll get into the best way to try and tackle the second taking on the indianapolis colts when you look at minnesota. This was a team that was flat out embarrassed last week against the denver broncos obviously to our benefit with denver are preseason best. Bet but you look zimmer and his tracker he's always placed emphasis kind of building that winning culture and he was not shy about calling out a variety of players whether it was going into the half or in the wake of callan mons performance now killing mon- had about two practices under his belt. We didn't think he was going to get a lot of reps. Lo and behold he was out there and look like he was rather winded with a quarterback. Who's gonna use his legs as most dynamic weapon. Don't expect alvin cook or just in jefferson to be out there jefferson plays. It's an added bonus but all speculation is that kirk cousins is going to be out there for at least a handful of series mid all of that controversy that could be big for his confidence building going forward and defensively. Hey look this is a viking steam. That's going to be better this year. They didn't play anybody last week. Anything would be a significant upgrade. The paying more importantly the colts are going to go with your boy. Sam l. anger in the first half. Let's build an ice three touchdown lead before. Jacobson tries his best to bring the colts back from the abyss. Dare mention this when we gave out the broncos as a best bet but even after the loss. Last week zimmer is twenty in six and the preseason so He really puts an onus on this as you alluded to some of the quotes have been quite telling in practice has been really intense this week. So Let's go with the vikings at this point though. I do like the money line option because in the preseason one is a very key number so i think it's worth going the money line route here and lay the twenty five cents so when you look at minnesota. This is a team that obviously we talked about at great lengths when we preview the nfc north. We broke them down earlier to team. We have i- expectations for and it's all about trying to build a winning culture. Hopefully it starts saturday afternoon when they welcome in indianapolis pain time for you to go. Rest your voice you have any parting shots You want to take any cheap shots in my direction or anything else to get off your chest before we get a seventy two hour break from one another no. That's it minnesota vikings. You're a the board podcast best bet for this year. Afc south preview. Best of luck with all of your wagers this weekend. We'll be right back here with you monday. Proving yet another division on our march to the start of the regular season. Thanks for listening to the board. You can catch todd and pain every monday. Wednesday and thursday during football season. Breaking down the biggest. Nfl band college football games and to make sure you don't miss any free best. Bets subscribe to bet the board on itunes google. Play spotify or wherever. You listen to podcasts.

colts shawn watson Trevor lawrence afc titans houston texans jacksonville carson wentz indianapolis colts nfl anthony costanzo eric fisher jags football jonathan taylor jaguars sam darnold wentz josh allen
NFC West Free Agency: Hopkins traded to Arizona, Rams trade Cooks, Gurley cut, San Fran 13th pick

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51:14 min | 1 year ago

NFC West Free Agency: Hopkins traded to Arizona, Rams trade Cooks, Gurley cut, San Fran 13th pick

"Along that Thou board with those bet you twenty bucks I can get. You can't look for the end of the day. You only fifteen grand how they pay debts men his manny. It's the board. Podcast really the end up right back where. I could still pick winners. I can still make money for all kinds of people back home. And why mess up a good thing? Airs PAIN INSIDER AND TODD. Welcome in to the the board podcast power by Fox bet six divisions down and completed we had west the my friend in the NFC west to be precise today. I'm your host Todd Furman joint as always by my steam colleague and Co host. The man is going to have to give us an update and how much time he's actually spent with natural sunlight and fresh air. The one the only pain insider not a law but I made sure I did launch outdoors yesterday and it's amazing. You need fresh air because as soon as I don't get it for the day the following day. I'm a little more moody and that's not like me. I'm usually bright chipper. You're never mood. I can't even start this podcast with a straight face. If that's the kind of line you're going to deliver right off the Bat Moody. I'm honest that's Hickey. It can be confused. Talk Okay. Well I'm glad we got that out of the way I mean that's going to be the most informative part. That's that's just an exercise this morning. Moody Honest Yeah Not Moody Modest. But I'm glad you got fresh air. Do you mind disclosing lunch. Consisted of I mean because I have to live vicariously through everybody else right now as I countdown the hours until I can start eating leavening agents again this whole celebration of Passover gets a bit old on days. So here's the problem. The last couple of days. I've started out well so you get the egg whites going you. Get the Ezekiel English muffin. In the green juice going and so. That's what I had I usually don't on my first. Meal is typically between like eleven twelve thirty and so that's that's like a little brunch kind of thing. The problem is I've been like a snack monster for the last three weeks. You can't stop you like ordered all this food to the house in case of this locked down and all of a sudden there's just all these bars and cookies and it's brutal so I've tried to combat that by like brushing my teeth and you know doing the mouthwash thing around seven or eight o'clock. You're not snacking all. Goddamn not yeah. That's what's going on over here. It's a real shit ya I can only begin to imagine as we inch ever so close hopefully to a return to normalcy Some optimism out there in the sports space with PGA announcing hopefully. They're going to come back in June. We've seen European domestic soccer league. Start to resume training sessions and of course all folks around here hoping that the NFL. I will get us back to where we need to be an early September. I just want to know pain I mean. Are you going to invite a lot of our loyal bet the board listeners? Into your home via zoom to throw your own draft party a week from a week from today. Unlikely Unlikely. The oddsmakers say that's interesting shared. It's worth a shot. I figured maybe one hundred to one on the betting board somewhere Fox. Bet You can go and plunk down. A few bucks was the someone sent a tweet. And I don't have my clone in front of me right. Now is very good but the gist of it was that I am used to this isolation life. I've I'm doing too well. Someone said we kinda figured I mean if there were people in this world built because vice elation during a time that teacher set out panicked. Oh here we go here anything else. You want to try and convince yourself. You're not only lying to the listeners. You're just lying. Here are some people that are down four points in the fourth quarter with a minute and a half to go on they panic. And then there's other guys that point to the sand and say you see John Candy. He's in the stands there and then you have the comeback performance. When that's me Gotcha. Ice Water in your veins at all times. Good to know that applies to pandemic situations as well and yourself tubes. You're supposed to be picked up some of it. I picked up some of it. I mean I don't WanNA GIVE THE CLEVELAND Browns too much credit by any capacity. That's true. Yeah we'll figure out what they're going to execute your job discussion even know it. I know and that's exactly where we wanted to go. You played your hand very well and show that you're an adept analyst in terms of the podcasting realm if we speak of draft day of the Cleveland Browns. We HAVE TO SPEAK OF ONE. Odell Beckham Junior amid growing speculation. He's on his way out of town. We've seen the reports of him potentially becoming a Viking widely refuted the pain. We know you're a little bit more connected to some circles and you obviously have some theories of your own I have to think we're both of a similar mindset. That Odell won't be a member of the browns but it's anybody's guess where he actually ends up. Before this football season we talked about this a little bit with the the Browns Free Agency podcast. They haven't openly put him on the market but they were certainly fielding offers in. That was the extent of. They're doing same with Kareem Hunt. I know Mary Kay Cabot came out and refuted everything yesterday strongly but I believe if they get the right offer is gone. I just don't know if they get the right offer now. I know his people are trying to Cleveland. So he's never going to come out and say it what his people are going to come out and say it that he would like to move on or make sense and I think he is happy with going Minnesota as crazy as that might sound for a personality that large I to me. This is still a premier receiver in this league. If you look at the numbers he put up last year in a system. That wasn't very good with a quarterback that wasn't very good and then you start to realize what he played through was a core muscle injury which required surgery and he still goes out and puts up a thousand yards He's still got a ton left in the tank. And I know me and you kind of we had texts exchange yesterday. I think we disagree a little bit about him as a person or his personality. And I think you need to find the right person to manage it. I don't think keys malcontent. I think when you look at him and you see the money he makes you see. Listen good looking dude you know out in La half the time getting any woman he wants. I think people associate that with a different type of personality to me and everyone that I speak to. He just wants to be left. You've got to treat him. You know. Put an arm around him Kinda Guy. He's gotta be coddled as crazy as that might sound some and so. That's how you need to manage that kind of personality and I think if you do. You're going to get a lot out of him. I think he's Kinda had a a bad rap right you take him out of New York But listen he idealized manning and then you move them to Cleveland in the guys who brought him there the GM and the coach are no longer there. So I think he's got a lot to offer. I think he would be an upgrade over Stefan digs and that would be a huge gap now. The idea that that trade was like near completion. I saw a lot of people got faked out yesterday on on twitter a lot of fake reports that the deal was done. People read tweet from like fake sportscenter. Accounts gotTa be careful about that. A lot of people free time right now trying to comb through the annals of social media trying to confirm some of the rumors that are out there but I mean Minnesota coerced mentioned as a potential landing spot form. And we're not going to sit here and pretend where local am sports radio where you're going to trade in eighth round pick in two thousand thirty seven and you're going to acquire Odell Beckham Junior. We're what are some of the other teams that you think he could potentially be a good fit for. I know you haven't gone through everything in the way of draft capital but just as we spit ball and kind of speculate if it's not Minnesota where Odell would fit in seamlessly into assist them all with the kind of coaching staff. They could take advantage of his skill. Set and really Raynham in a little bit here and there your problem and in San Francisco and they are certainly searching for a wide receiver potentially at thirteen but Who knows if they want to give up that that draft capital? It'll be interesting to see if there's a couple of teams that need receiver. But I think this one makes a lot of sense is kind of odd the limelight. He kind of has this proven mentality and from my understanding behind the scenes. His people are going to be pushing for this to Minnesota. So we'll see what comes of it but there's going to be a lot of noise. There's been underlying noise off season. I think the browns are playing it right. He's not there is GM coach. He's not there guy But they didn't put it out there publicly openly in there doing the private offers and sometimes you can get the best deal doing things privately. So let's see what comes to fruition here. I think there's GonNa be some moves not just with Odell Beckham Junior but a lot of veteran guys potentially around this Around draft time whether it's a guy like Trent Williams or or maybe Oh. Bj will be some some big named guys. I think will be on the move. Bring him back to New York. Pair them up your boy Adam Gates. The jets need a bona fide number one. Let's make it happen pain. Happy Interesting. I I've thought about that. I just WanNa you WanNa talk about a guy who would love the limelight playing for the jets trying to prove the giants wrong. Every time he went out there it'd be that wouldn't just be bad. That wouldn't just be a chip on on someone's shoulder that would be a massive boulder by every definition of the word. But it'd be fun to watch mention. A lot of those dominoes will begin falling. You know maybe before draft night if not before definitely in the coming days and weeks teams begin to solidify their roster but as far as the NFC west is concerned we look at the updated odds to win the division on Fox. Bet It's still is the rain champs. The forty niners the favourite out there for western supremacy it plus a dollar twenty there followed by the Seattle Seahawks plus twenty. Of course the seahawks came up ever so close to knocking off the forty niners for the division title season ago. The Rams check in plus three twenty and it's Arizona as long shots at ten to one and much. We've done pain. We'll kind of go from worst to first at least in the eyes of oddsmakers but I think this division is interesting for a variety of reasons because while Arizona's a long shot during a much better position going forward that a lot of their division compatriots the big signing for them or trey should say picking up the Andre Hopkins. They get uploaded contract. David Johnson off the books as bill. O'brien continues to be the gift that keeps on giving. And don't worry Bill O'Brien you'll get mentioned not once but twice when we preview this fine division. Of course. De'andre gets added to Larry Fitzgerald Christian Kirk and a rising player. Andy Isabella Transition Tag. Kenyan drake they still have chase Edmunds on the roster. But I like some of the moves that they made defensively getting Jordan Phillips from the Detroit. Lions you pick up devante Campbell. Who At one hundred twenty nine tackles last year ranking thirteenth comes over from Atlanta? But when you look at the Arizona Cardinals. Good off season for team looking to rebuild and trying to create balance on both sides of the ball behind their franchise quarterback in college not bad. Listen Steve Absolutely right bill. O'brien over the coals. But it hasn't been like the greatest offseason I mean. Jordan Phillips is nice. Him Advanced Joseph reunite from their dolphins days. And we've talked about Jordan Phillips. He can play when he wants. He just doesn't have that constant motor the stamina to do it every single down. You mentioned Devon Devon Kennard You Know Versatile Guy. He can put his hand in the dirt. We can get pressure from the outside a little bit you can drop them in coverage a little bit as well from that. Outside linebacker position the other guys are just bodies right. Campbell and coli just bodies. They're they're jags. I think you know when you look at the cardinals in general when you go to hire this coach in Cliff Kingsbury. You're an offensive minded team. And that's the bottom line so I think when you assess what they've done in free agency or via trade you know you're going to look at what they did. Offensively De'andre Hopkins. I like the move and that officially just went through right. Hopkins and David Johnson. Just past their physicals And I know a lot of people in Arizona. Were like just chomping at the bit nervous like. Let's get this physical out of the way and completed yet this trade on the way I want to see how much value this deal actually has because Steve Time is negotiating extension with Hopkins. If it's you know twenty million a year the value of this deal isn't as slanted as we initially thought But this isn't like shocking. If you listen to Kingsbury IF YOU LISTEN TO STEVE. Time as soon as that season ended last year they talked about going out and getting outside receiver. If you were connected to the combine. They talked about it all week on indie about how they were trying to make moves for an outside receiver and it makes sense and those are the kind of move not just because they ripped off Bill Brian. But we talk about these coaches all the time. How good they are number one. How do you know how good they are? We start to look at their moves and see if they make sense. And I think this one actually makes sense. Not just because the Andre Hopkins is really good. But it's you know you look at where cuyler Murray is good last year and where he was best throwing and it was outside and so I was looking at that actually this morning view. Look Kyle Murray. When he threw two receivers or tight ends in this is really without a preeminent outside pass catcher on balls to the right side in the air fifteen yards or more. The cardinals were nine percent better than league. Average passing success rate twelve percent better than league average on those same throws to the left side so in the air fifteen yards or more down the field. Too tight ends or wide receivers. Murray to the outside was fantastic. And then you combine that with you know how deandre Hopkins plays how he runs routes. He's a very good route runner and I think you have something cooking there with that combination if you look at Hopkins. Two point seven yards of separation per route run last season. That's better than guys like Mike Evans. O B j Michael Thomas Amari Cooper and Stefan. Dick so I think that's pretty critical the other one. That is interesting to me that we haven't talked about is is Max Williams. He got signed as well. And I think that's big because your hope is not only is D Andre Hopkins GonNa be vital on the outside but he's GonNa probably have a lot of attention paid to him and that might allow guys like Isabella to take that next. Step Max Williams to be more efficient in that slot area. And that's one thing. I think we really have to monitor with Kyle. Murray and potentially progression as a quarterback is seeing what he can do with receivers and tight ends in the middle of the field. And if you look at those metrics. They weren't very good on throws zero to fourteen yards in the middle. When targeting receivers are tight ends? Arnold were eight percent worse than league average success rate fourteen percent worse when the ball is thrown fifteen or more yards in the air down the middle and so. I'm not saying this as like a panic to cardinals fans or cuyler Murray fans but we want to kind of monitor this a little bit. Because I'm not sure if it's a high thing not being able to see well throwing the ball over the middle. You know with big defenders there but I want to see how this looks in year two and obviously when you have hopkins you know. The the offense is geared towards throwing it to the outside throwing it through larger windows As opposed to throwing it over guys in the middle of the field. So it's something I really want to monitor the season. We're I know we're going to be paying close attention to that one. So very interesting in the Hopkins move. Just make sense. Not because a Tompkins. And you ripped off bill. O'brien but just how Kyle Murray in this offense likes operate. It makes a lot of sense. Yeah I think. There's a quarterback that a lot of people are going to have their eyes on seeing how he progresses from his freshman campaign to avoiding that inevitable. Sophomore slump cliff kingsbury knocking to have the same amount of time. Potentially with some of these new pieces during the off season as we know everything is going to be a little bit discombobulated in that particular regard cadre of course widely politicking not only take CD lamb but he wants offensive lineman here and there. I found Steve Comments. Pretty funny that goes. There will not be involved as far as the general manager's concern as he pushes for offense of weapons. We can't fault a guy for trying to make sure he's not only protected but can do his part of the defense. No doubt will definitely need some additions in some capacity as the team finished. Twenty eighth points allow dead last in yards allowed. And they'll I'm sure trying to address some of those needs whether it's through the draft Oregon Coming Years Arizona couple years away from being relevant the do in the national to Kylie's points and the one thing defensively. They were pretty good. Stopping the run specially on first down and they do need to improve the secondary. They need a safety that can cover tight ends but a lot of their poorest passing numbers did come early in the season. When you had guys suspended you made the play for. Alford and FREE AGENCY IN PLAYA DOWN. So you know your hope. Is You get a little healthier in the secondary as well? Yeah I mean not to speculate on the drafting. Get away from the topic at hand. You'd have to think with the eighth overall. Pick that this is a team. That's going to draft one of the talented offensive. Lineman that's available. Obviously one that fits their system whether it's tristen worse weather it's MCI Back Dean. Whether it's judge Rick Willis whether it's Andrew Thomas I have to imagine I'd be relatively stunned if one of those guys wasn't wearing a cardinal's jersey. Oh line or maybe you have a situation where brown falls. They could use some interior help. But Yeah I think Owen makes a lot of sense and you need to protect our investment Arizona cardinals definitely team. That will bear watching. Should be a Lotta Fun could potentially be involved in shootouts. And we're curious of course to see what the fantasy implications are for some of their key contributors. Now there's onuma might be heading in the right direction a team. That's definitely not in my opinion pain. That would be the Los Angeles. Rams they lose six starters from last year's team and when you look around at the way things have gone here we can talk about the departures. Brandin COOKS SHIPPED OFF TO HOUSTON. Give the rams credit for that particular deal with. They're able to get in return. They cut ties with todd. Gurley and his bloated contract defensively departures of Don Fowler. Cory Littleton Nickell. Robey Coleman and Clay Matthews. This is a team in a little bit of salary cap. Hell but what do you make of the rams and the direction that this team is headed knowing they got oh so close to winning that elusive super bowl but now seems to be a bit of purgatory in my opinion? I don't think you're wrong. In based on the contracts that were given out the last few seasons. When the rams were in this you know when now mode where it's do whatever it takes to win a super bowl is the fallout and unfortunately it comes without a ring. And I know Jared Goff's came out yesterday and he said Hey. Listen I'm all for restructuring my contract? Let's see if he does. But you know the reality right now is the rams. Were the only team in the NFL. Like operating at a financial deficit in terms of the salary cap. They are literally in the red as it stands today so the restructuring of contracts isn't done yet because they still have to sign a draft class. You know to me when you look at some of these guys departing Cory Littleton is one that stands out to me. That the likely mass. There's a huge void on the roster at inside linebacker and I think he is a player of value. When you look at the type of linebacker he is. He fits today's game. He's not a stout run support guy. But he's one of the best coverage linebackers last season. So I think they miss him. Dante follower you mentioned he departs for you know a big deal in. Atlanta has a chance to reunite with Dan Quayle. Who coached him when he was in college at Florida? So you'RE GONNA lose that production but at the same time you know. They made a play form but they weren't going to overpaid for him. The value just wasn't there So you're not GonNa you know retain a guy like that. I don't think with the current cap situation. You bring in Leonard Floyd you probably know more about him than I do With some of your contacts in Chicago but clearly underachiever to this point you'll lose macelroy Coleman as your slot corner that is that's one that's going to be tough. That is a huge loss and you know have obviously done some work in regards to him and you know when you look at him. there's only five corners that recorded more than four hundred coverage snaps in the slot. He was one of them. Zero point six three yards per coverage snap allowed last season all right. It's a massive loss and the eagles a home. Run THERE SEAN. Robinson I duNNo. He comes over to pair with Aaron Donald. I think he's been underachievers. Well where do you come out of Alabama? I think it was Two Thousand Sixteen like that that center. Yes I mean. He's an interesting guy. I think only because like you mentioned I mean being alongside Aaron Donald. He's not going to be asked to be the major disruptor. So we'll see if you can't benefit immensely by playing right next. Aaron Donald then guess what? You're you're one and done and whatever system your opponent. They signed him to a short term deal. More of a run stuffer attempt to take on two guys than a guy that creates a lot of pressure from the inside so hopefully he can handle that that task but I was looking at some of his season numbers and you know he was above average in two thousand seventeen had a great two thousand eighteen season and then in a contract year just absolutely a shit the bat a year ago. So maybe you know a fresh start and then playing next Aaron Donald Suddenly Robinson. Groom turned to that two thousand eighteen form offensive line you know retain some guys there and Whitworth and blyth the rams. Oh line actually if you kind of parse out some things once they made some late season adjustments they did start to play. Better like Goff's pressure rate finished at around thirty five percent which was down from its peak around forty early in the season they actually finished number one and adjusted. Zach rate allowed. So I think wanted some of that late season continuity to continue into the next season. Listen to put a bow tie in this to your point at the top there. It's clear the rams are on their way down here and they're trying to get water out of the boat without throwing the captain overboard so to speak so their hope is that they can eventually get to a point where they can make another push forward and get to shore safely. I just I don't know if there's certainly not a contender this year. They're third fiddle in the division. In really this is a team that that is going to be. You know a five hundred football team. I would think here the next few years so we get this cap situation figured out and then your goal is to then pressed forward but they had to get out of it at some point so I've seen a lot of people you know tweeting about all this dead space all his dead cap money on guys. You know you have to cut the cord at some point and it's better to do it earlier than later and so I think it was smart. Even though you're going to hurt this year getting guys like girly off the books getting a contract like cooks off the book and getting a second rounder in return like e. You just can't pass that up right now so I think cutting the cord on some of those big earlier rather than later is gonNA pay us. Some dividends in the future Levin picks the next two years in the draft. No first rounder this year. No I out her next year and one final thing pain new kind of wrap things up the rams. I have to ask you about former Florida state contributor on the defensive side I mean what are the Rams GonNa have to do to try and make sure they can secure Jalen Ramsey to a long term deal or is it even possible with some of the salary Cap Constraints? They have right. I think that's tough. I listen I think what they were doing with him as you again. They were all in on on trying to achieve a super bowl. It didn't quite come to fruition. It's going to be interesting to see what they do there What was his current deal? It was like four years for. He's still in his rookie deal. Raoult's well they kind of did like an a little extenders for years for twenty three was the initial deal. I don't know I don't know if they're going to have the money to to inc him to the kind of deal. He's looking for And you certainly gave up some capital to get 'em long term. I would think I don't know I don't know if it's feasible. I really don't. I mean they are some of these deals right when you look at the Michael Brocker sting like you know to the point. Is You have to figure out what you WANNA be. D- shed some of these contracts in a couple of games below five hundred or you sign a guy like Michael Progress and be five hundred like I just I. I think you might be better off of steps back to eventually move forward quicker and so when you do a deal like that certainly hinders potentially signing Ramsey long term. I don't know he's an interesting character. He's GONNA WANNA be paid I don't know what the resolution there is. Honestly I figure anyone comes from Florida state or spent time in Tallahassee is interesting character. President present company included the Michael Brokers thing. You mentioned awfully interesting especially when you consider the fact. He had a deal on the table with the ravens fell through and the rams go after him nonetheless t to try and retain him but no. Dow couldn't agree with you more in terms of a team. That's on the descent at least at this point. So it'll be interesting to see how they can keep some momentum breaking in a new stadium as they continue to try and forge ahead at least with what they think is their franchise quarterback when we look at the Seattle seahawks pain. This is a team that typically does more with last every single year defies. A lot of the metrics wins a ton of close games mainly because Russell Wilson just fines opportunities and avenues to make the plays when he needs to most they spent the offseason stockpiling seemingly every backup offensive. Lineman they could possibly find. I mean the list goes on and on earlier this week. They bring back Mike You Party. They have what I would define. I guess is a glut of interior offense of wine options. But none that we would call true bona fide starters or guys that were elite at this current point in time we know Pete Carroll likes to create competition. He's done a great job in doing that so far. But we look at the Seattle seahawks offense. They add Philip door set as well giving them another speedster to pair opposite tyler. Lockett Decay Metcalf Greg Olsen. Not too tight end. He once was but he'll be out there with Disley and Jacob Hollister I'll what do you make of what Seattle's doing offensively more so than anything else and we can get to the defensive side of Seattle's always a team Elliot's me a little befuddled and you know half a decade ago even further out? They were drafting guys that they like best and people would crap on them in their draft evaluation. They turn out to be good scheme. Fits and you know. Go on to win a super bowl and it's tough to Argue with what. They've done the problem is they. Haven't been drafting overly well in recent years and they're not the penny on line two and they're not the most sophisticated in terms of offensive capabilities. So they're always a team. Where like wise guys don't seem to like them but to your point. Russell Wilson kind of pulls them through and the moves with the offensive. Line are much needed. Because you look at Russell Wilson and his mobile as he was in the pocket presence that he has you still pressuring forty percents dropback slasher third most in the League and qualifying quarterbacks and you look at the offensive line and as much as they like to run the ball Schottenheimer. It was just an average. Oh line creating space in the ground game sixteenth adjusted line yards so you go out and you pick up guys like Brennan show. I don't know you know I was looking at some of his metrics as morning. Seventy third in pass block efficiency for all. Nfl tackles who appeared in eight or more games doing the math here. Thirty two teams to tackles dame you know so you look at Brandon Jelly responsible for allowing forty two pressures in fourteen games. Eighth most among tackles. And you start to look at. His trajectory and his best season ever was as a rookie. Fantastic one of the better pass blockers. But he's regressed each of the last three seasons over all the other name that's interesting here is is chance warm. Act I saw. And he's really just a name I think. A lot of people remember him from winning. Titles at like Alabama adopt ambig- but he has been a massive disappointment. He was a reserve for the eagles in two thousand seventeen in two thousand. Eighteen played seven total snaps in two thousand eighteen on offense for the Eagles is out of the league last year so to me. I don't think the seahawks are done with the offensive line. Keep your eye on them. Potentially as a team making a run at Trent Williams and not just because he can help in the now dwayne Brown turns thirty five in August. So it's a potential of the future guy for the next two three years. I if you can make that move Bj Finney. I know that was one of the guys that they signed. Initially right when free agency opened two years. Eight million dollars for a guy that doesn't have a clearly defined position on the offensive line. They like versatility he can play guard. He can play center but to your point. He's only started thirteen games since the steelers signed him as an undrafted free agent out of Kansas State. I I mean to me a when I look at some of the things that they've done and I could be wrong but it's very possible. Seattle starts to pass the ball a little bit more. And it's not just smart. People advocating for this but I think Russell Wilson is birds have been in his ears this off season and he's advocating that they throw the ball a little bit more and he has been extremely loud to Brian. Schottenheimer about the importance of passing more in doing so on earlier downs and some of these moves signal that right you'd get a burner and Philip Dorsett now. His his time speed doesn't necessarily translate to his field speed and he's been a little bit of a disappointment but in their minds. He's a guy that can play in the slot with some speed. And then you mentioned Greg Olsen you add him currently he's best as a pass. Catcher in a pass blocker offers very little help in the run game. Blocking at this point you know so some of these moves that potentially. Russell Wilson is going to get his way with a little bit more of a pass. Heavy offense let's see. What do you make some of the speculation that surface this past week that they might cut ties with Justin Brit and that was part of the way that they could carve out a little bit of Cap Space. Very possible. There's just to your point. Initially a slew of bodies on the interior of this line some of them pretty versatile none of them overly elite so it makes some sense that you would shed a contractor to to potentially make moves and other areas specifically on defense. Well when you mentioned defense will get to one of the big players. That remains unsigned. But I think you are what eventually you're not even getting nita hosts because you're going to be able to create the segues and transitions for yourself. And so I'm just going to kick back and I'll have to learn some of the production side to try and retain some value as part of this organization. But you mentioned the defense and of course every day that passes there becomes a probably a higher probability that good in terms of containing the edge will remain a member of the seahawks that Judean cloudy. But you look at the Seattle seahawks team. They were second day produced. Excuse me the second fewest sacks in the league season ago regime green led the team with four so they go out there and you get a guy that's probably not a household name by any stretch imagination and Benson meow who had seven sacks a season ago the biggest move. I know we talked about it a little bit. As the Redskins lost became the seahawks gain for Quinton Dunbar for a low round. Pick Bruce Irvin. Familiarity in the system comes back. They're obviously gonNA need some more production from Jaren revert to two thousand eighteen form. But let's start with clowney and then go a variety of different directions that you see best fit for the seahawks defensively. So it's kind of tie in all the pass rushers here. You mentioned bourbon familiar face. They bring him back. I think as a situational pass rusher. He's probably a guy that's gonNA play. You know forty eight to fifty eight percent of snaps pending how good Seattle is and if they're in the lead more But they're gonNA add more help in the two things that are brewing is clowney. Obviously Seattle has made an offer to him. They made it weeks ago. He was looking for unrealistic money. Nobody bit and now counties come out and said Hey have dropped my ask on a really good leveraging tool to come out and say that what he's lost leverage and he knows it may be cloudy ends up accepting Seattle's offer once he realizes what is market truly as if that doesn't happen. I Know Everson. Griffen has also said he would like to play in Seattle so he seems to be that tier to end. That's been waiting for the clowney domino to fall for him to figure out where he wants to go. So from what I've been hearing is he likes Seattle. But he's trying to figure out what's going on with cloudy. So if the cloud anything doesn't come to fruition maybe it's Griffin in Seattle Dunbar. You mentioned we talked about that loosely. We believe he's a top ten cornerback on and you can get him for a fifth round. Pick that was an absolute fleecing. A fantastic job. I think that's going to help their secondary mentally but at the end of the day you got whether it's cloudy and to me listen. Clowney played through some injury a little bit last season. But he's always been a fantastic run setting edge hasn't always been the best pressure got but he's still very good so whatever it is whether it's cloudy whether it's Griffin whether it's one of those guys and some help in the draft you gotta get some pressure on opposing quarterbacks and that's something Seattle didn't do you mentioned the lackluster sack. Numbers sack numbers. Come from pressure. Numbers in Seattle was bottom five in the league and pressure rate last season about nineteen percent. So they have to get the end position figured out whether it's In free agency or in the draft as well I would actually double dip. I would get someone in free agency whether it's clowning Griffin. If whoever made sense moneywise and then double down in the draft swell Dan interesting team. You admitted earlier. The professional bettors really struggled. And it's because the metrics suggest one thing and the onfield level of productivity continues to defy the odds win totals are concerned and everything else but a lot to be said about Russell Wilson him becoming one of the best deodorants in the entire. Nfl masking a lot of deficiencies. And A guy. That you I believe on this. Podcast is said pain. Probably worth even more money than what? He's currently getting paid for what he's meant to. Seattle's level of competitive balance and the ability to keep this team in games. They really have no right to be in when you look at their roster winter fifty three without question and I'm trying to think I listened to part of it and I I know we talked about it a little bit off air but it was the Howard Stern. Tom Brady interview and at one point in that interview. Howard Stern asked Tom Brady if he felt he was worth more money to the organization that his contract and Brady nicely danced around and said. Hey there's a salary Cap Yada Yada Yada but I think if this was like a free market and there was no salary cap and you just said hey here all the guys you can pick you know. Starting at one two. How many ever guys are in the League and you find out their true value along with Tom Brady. Russell Wilson is right up there. I mean for what he's done for this franchise it almost to a lesser extent. Has that Lebron effect. Where IN CLEVELAND? The organizations valued at a billion dollars as soon as he leaves town. You know it's cut in half there. Is that similar but to a lesser degree impact with Russell Wilson in the Seattle seahawks and pain. I think that's part of the reason. You should call up one of your long list of lady friends. And you should bid on the charity day to day with Russell Wilson and CR that way. You can reaffirm with value that you feel. He adds to this franchise in a face to face capacity rather than doing so just on the podcast not to To get too far left here. But what's what's going on with his hair. He's grown it out this off season. It's it's it's very interesting and then I noticed you Florentine. Both both your mind has in the beard. Mine is just pure laziness. I have decided though that the beard will most likely come off at least in some capacity on draft day. 'cause I'm calling that a live sporting event and mainly because my playoff beard. I'm not winning a Stanley Cup anytime soon. And I'll give credit to grow these things out no idea. How James Harden deals it? I scratch at this thing constantly. No I know his a little. Bit More well-maintained and manicured but man. Oh man growing a beard for six weeks or however long ago and it's getting annoying his house. What's going on 'cause we initially talked about this after you did like a live. Hit the other day. So what's what's going on with the beard and you said You. Don't have tremors just have a razor so have you gone on and gotten yourself a trim on advocate. I'm going to have to make that move because I'm not going in and try and hack it with a straight razor because all end up looking then the other one I'm done with any other. Dicey proposition is going with demand. Scape her on the face. It's tough you know combining the at trim from the balls and then putting it to your face. You gotTa have. I don't think I don't think I was GonNa go in that particular direction but college me might disagree with some of the tools you had and you tried to make sure that any rash you had didn't spread further across your body again that different discussion for a different day and at different dialogue completely. So I don't want to digress into some of my poor hygiene habits then I may have tried when I was eighteen. Thousand Nine Hundred Shit. Twenty years ago man makes me feel old around these parts. This is speaking of poor hygiene habits. Jimmy Garoppolo in his love for neurons. Continue The San Francisco Forty niners obviously super bowl. Runners-up eight minutes away from picking up that Elusive Super Bowl Championship. When you look at a lot of these teams that have deep rosters. You can't turn in free agency. But the niners credit they were able to keep ten of their eleven defensive. Starters we know the big loss of course deforest Buckner who they traded to the Indianapolis Colts but did get a top fifteen pick in return. Jimmy Ward ends up. Sticking around turned down more money to become a member of the Las Vegas Raiders. Eric Armstead signed to a longer term deal. I guess we can debate the merits of Buckner Armstead. I'm sure the forty niners knew who they wanted. Right off the top. But when you look at some of their departures any that you see rather costly or will it be business as usual in the bay area for Kyle Shanahan as they try and get back to the Super Bowl and ultimately win the damn thing. It's really an interesting team like they're right there. I'm just intrigued to see what they do through the draft. That's one of the larger things for me. John Lynch is kind of always been or said to be a best player available drafts but at thirteen he may go need in. I think that's potentially what San Francisco really really needs help with. Zet The receiver position and they have been linked to Jerry. Judy and I think he's probably the most pro ready and I to me. That's important for team and win now mode that's like operating in this pandemic landscape where we only know. It's tough for receivers to make an early impact and now you're potentially looking at a short and Cam. So Judy to me likely the most pro ready route running capabilities and then the whole pro style thing. And just how Alabama's Bill I think that's what they potentially need on offense to make another run. They need a receiver that they're probably not going to acquire via trade or in free agency at this point what they've done this off season and you know you get some guys off the books in. Buckner. I think it was a great move for them. I really do because you get you. Get money off the books. You get a first rounder in. Return what you didn't have which can now fortify weakness at potentially receiver. I there's just so much you look at how they're built right now. You can't allocate so much capital to like one unit and I did. Getting pressure on. Quarterbacks is absolutely key and it was vital for the forty niners during the super bowl run and they led the League. You know they're up there and pressure at a believe they finished second behind Pittsburgh and pressure but like you just can't have that capital tied to the defensive line I just I don't love their the armstead thing. I just don't get it when you look at this position. How he plays the position. I know the contract is crazy as it looks on paper. It's really three for fifty. But that's a ton and I think we've kind of hammered this home throughout the last couple of podcast when you got an interior linemen you want him to be able to get pressure. When you have a guy who's shifts outside uncertain downs. You want him to be able to get pressure. To Mir arm. Said is best suited as a a run. Stuffer he is. That's his best attribute so it's a little shocking to me to your point though right like they saw something they preferred him when you income to that large of a deal it probably means they have an idea in mind with what they're gonNA do with Buckner. It's just tough for me that you chose Eric Armstead versus the guy. Your entire team voted team. Mvp that's that's odd to me. Maybe they felt more for buckner than they could armstead and they didn't have a first round pick so that's kind of what they decided to go with. They said hey the drop off in or mines. Isn't that large on the field but in terms of what we can get for value of the two in. The open market is massive. And that's kind of how they played that game. That's what I was GONNA say. I mean there have to be other extenuating circumstances more so than just onfield production for them to make that kind of determination for a lot of the reasons you outlined so I guess the case and we talk about all the time you give the benefit of doubt franchises. That are well run. Do you think the forty niners over the last couple years with what they've done should be given the benefit of the doubt with given the relationship between John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan in terms of how they're handling player personnel It's so weird. Remember when we were talking about this a couple years back and they had all this draft capital. They had all the the cap space in they were doing some things that we didn't necessarily love Kyle. Shanahan was bring. In some of his guys like overpaying for them jerk McKinnon and hasn't seen the field yet. I saw that he took a little bit of a pay cut. Let's see if you can finally get involved this coming season and finally they kind of took some things out of Shanahan's hands and just said hey like you go be a coach and that seems to be when things work best but you look at how they're operating right now like the draft is going to be big for them They are going to have to find guys that can contribute now. And so. That's what makes pick thirteen so interesting to me. It's one of the teams right anything about thirteenth big. Yeah for them. It could be a guy with the right pick that truly has a a massive impact on whether they can really for another super bowl or not and that pickett thirteen for them has got to be home run. I mean if they didn't gopher receiver at thirteen I mean. What are the other possible directions? You could see the forty niners going there if it's BP A in this is really interesting talking to some of those guys out in San Francisco. Bpa You have one of these elite linemen fall to you like it'd be tough to turn that down out But I think in terms of like again going out there and getting the guy who might not be the best three or four years from now and is the best guy for them this season. It's gotta be receiver. And so Jerry Judy. To me makes makes the most sense. I know a lot of guys have linked him to San Francisco. Let's see if it comes to fruition. I mean he is just a fantastic route runner An Kyle Shanahan likes likes his toys and we saw the impact even though Emmanuel Sanders numbers wise didn't put up great statistics and again. It's tough to do that when you're looking at a box score of team that doesn't throw it very often. So his numbers are going to be deflated. A little bit turn but the implementation of him really helped the offense takeoff already. Love what you have in Deebo Samuel and his ability for run after the catch now. Let's get a guy that one's a little bit more of a deeper route tree and Jerry. Judy potentially you know. Worst CASE SCENARIO PAIN. They did go out. And they brought in Travis Benjamin so clearly Travis Benjamin. I'll be qualified. If you can catch me. All he is. He is a deep threat. He can take the top off defense You know the hands are are are question mark. He is to me. I could be wrong but you know of the Ted Ginn. Ilk and I think that's probably maybe you know maybe a second tier of of Ted Ginn when Ted. Ginn was kind of in his prime for the Saints. So they're hoping that he can kind of fill that role. Yeah I mean honestly team that runs the ball as effectively as the forty niners. You take one or two deep shots a game it just forces the opposition to respect your ability to take the lid off and maybe you can open things up to hit that occasional home. Run here there so an interesting team nonetheless. We expectations extremely high in the bay area. As people really believe the forty niners will be right back there down in Tampa potentially playing for the Super Bowl Championship and the Lombardi trophy of things. Break the right away. But we'll see we've seen the super bowl hangover. It's been a very real thing for teams not named the New England Patriots. Let's see what happens up there in San Francisco you can follow paying on twitter at Paine insider. I'm todd firm and you can follow me there as well and most importantly follow the podcast at the board pod pain. I know we talked plenty of football. But you've been out there offering show recommendations as well. I have to admit I finally finish all three seasons of ozark. I like to say thank you. I appreciated the recommendation. I will admit without playing spoiler here that I rarely watch a show where nothing good ever seems to happen to a lot of the characters but fascinating nonetheless end definitely worth its weight and entertainment value. It's a good show. Have you been heist? I have not started money heist. I was something to tell us what it is. It's definitely the dubbing of the language there there. There's nothing to kind of get sucked in various wormhole. So I told you is third a soccer documentary as I'm trying to fill that void so I'm like two or three episodes in to the Sunderland liver die documentary series. Not well as well done in his drive to survive for F one but watch a little bit of that you know. I'm trying to make sure that I can become a draft aficionado. And I'm putting in proper due diligence for these podcasts. I'm sorry I don't have fourteen hours a day binge-watching money heist over here. It's just it's a good show. It's a good show banshee. I gotTa give credit pretty good. Have we probably finished banshee? Your how how far into banshee already at this point just finished it just finished okay. So a hell of a wild ride late in the final season trying to wrap up all those loose ends. I'll say that much pretty quickly quickly. I'm really just debating going back into the good stuff. I'm debris watching debating rewatching sopranos. I figured out what's coming if I I mean I figured if you were GonNa Watch the Sopranos. We're going to be top of your list. Yeah I mean it's just it's just so good it's just so good which we're GonNa get you read books somewhere along the way that's going to be the step in the right direction as it pertains to quarantine now we're GONNA get new start reading books. I'm not going to cheat but I did pick one up. The key for me is finishing saw. I'll talk about it at once. I finish it if I finish. Well I mean just picking up a book to use it as a paper. It doesn't count you know. The goal is to actually read it cover to cover so to try and expand your horizons so we know you do a Lotta reading regularly. Books are acceptable fares. Well can't wait to hear what what book actually is. The that you're flipping through. I know our listeners will sit with bated breath and if see west means we've completed seven podcast and as always go check out the Fox APP and website plenty of great opportunities there for those folks in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Plunk down some of their hard-earned cash on win. Totals draft props division futures. Yes no numbers to make the post season. Of course keep in mind that seven teams will be vying for the Lombardi trophy in both conferences? Instead of six. And even if you don't have the ability to bet on the Fox about APPs numbers there to keep yourself abreast of the situation before you had to some of your favorite books between now and draft a and of course as the season inches ever so close pain any final parting shots before we shut things down here in reconvene for eighth and final installation highlighting the AFC west and of course your beloved Patrick Mahomes. I thought that's all we needed. Best of luck to everyone is. They've continued to comb through a lot of the draft. Props that are available. Fox Bent and elsewhere. Hopefully you guys are staying safe and following the various rules and regulations in your fine city. And we'll see you at the window.

Seattle Seahawks League Seattle Rams Russell Wilson NFL San Francisco Jerry Judy Kyle Shanahan Arizona cardinals Bill O'Brien NFC Kyle Murray Cleveland Atlanta Trent Williams
09/13/2021 Pushing The Odds Hour 3

Pushing the Odds with Matt Perrault

41:29 min | Last week

09/13/2021 Pushing The Odds Hour 3

"This is pushing the odds and pushing yards on the sports map. Radio network powered by o'reilly auto parts and rocket mortgage live from las vegas. Your host matt paroles. It's a busy third hour for us on the mondays. Pushing the odds coming up in the next segment. Our guy dave sharpen. Stop it on by our monday. Recap and everything happening behind the counter. And a preview of monday night football. We will do a little better than book. It's the couple of plays we already know. Dave is my favorite bet of the weekend or the week week. One was the over fifty and a half for the raiders and the ravens. The numbers come down to fifty and a half started fifties me which is a little weird to me because surprise money coming in on the under not totally against it but okay and then what does dave think about. All the money on the raiders. Tonight everyone all weekend bet underdog underdog underdogs and they went eleven and four if the underdog wins tonight caches. Ats tonight. It'll be the best record. Four dogs in the history of the super bowl era. that is not insignificant. The public bets favorites and overs. Okay we had underdogs in unders. The public got killed on sunday. Not so much the weekend but if you are somebody who was playing the dog you did very i took the saints. I took the dolphins made the mistake of going over with games like the titans and the cardinals games should have gone over. It did not have missed field goal late in the titans. Offense was pathetic. Off of line was pathetic. That scored thirteen points on the cardinals. So that does not hit. The cardinals did their part titans. Defense look bad. Like i thought and then i thought seattle and indianapolis would go over and we didn't get enough offense from indianapolis. Unfortunately it was twenty eight points for seattle. Just not enough points. Coming in from the colts thought the colts would be able to hang to score. They did not so. I went to there. I wouldn't want to one of my teasers. It's i didn't need to tease which is often happens. But it's the chargers in the bengals. Both those teams won outright. I gave them eight and a half nine points and they want outright which is rough. But you know here we go and then i lost my bucks bill because the bills through up on themselves against the steelers who is the team. Which is the team for. Dave sheridan matt. Nagy said by the way he doesn't know if field can handle more of the offense said that out loud. Can matt nagy. Please be fired. Oh my gosh. what a disaster chicago dave. Sharpen our look behind the counter. We get with the books next year. This is pushing the odds on the sports map. Radio network our by o'reilly auto parts and rocket mortgage live from las vegas. Here's math crawled. Let's talk to our share pen. It's our monday conversation going behind the counter as do everything that was going on with an eleven and four dog record in the nfl and tonight raiders at home catching for from the baltimore. Ravens on purpose of guests lined. Dave share at sports. Pk concert happy monday. My friend. how aria hey man. What's going on I'm good recovering. I i spent a long day in the book yesterday And that was a lotta fun. But i can tell you this. There's guys that are probably planning a trip to The caribbean somewhere. Hawaii already based on the results of yesterday. Nfl like so dogs. Show eleven and four hundred eight outright wins week one impossible but it happened. So that's a good thing for the public isn't a bad thing for the public. I was giving you the book perspective on the book cowan february after the super bowl. Go into fiji. Oh yeah. I'm going i'm going here. I was a big week for the books. They've been crying about you. Know baseball and favorites and blah blah blah blah. Everybody's gonna be fine in a. Don't worry we gotta just help. People find winners on the other side of the car because that was a rough week for a lot of people all right. So let's start there because you on thursday. The play you liked the most was the over in this game tonight. The numbers going down. I bet over fifty and a half and now it's fifty it's actually ticked back up at fifty and a half at certain books. But you still love my play on the ravens and the raiders over tonight because no one else does. This is one of those ones where they're like. Yeah who's playing running back for the ravens. Alamo jacob sick maybe i maybe i don't know The only thing we have to go off this is last year up to right now. Right and last year. The raiders I believe were either twelve and four to the over twelve. Three and one something that Yes so what changed. I mean did they go. you know. Get In the ted hendricks john benson. Did these. these guys come back in. They're gonna play no. They didn't add much to the defense. I don't think they can tackle i. I think the game goes over. And you know i i still like the ravage to i. Don't hold on. Yeah yeah let's not bury the lead on that. Because i want to get to that for sure. So what do you make of this. Because fan dole just went three and a half. Draftkings is seventy percent on the dog. This the more. I see this according to espn stats and information. If the raiders cover it would be the single greatest weekend for underdogs in the super bowl era for sports betting with underdogs going twelve and four to cover. Doesn't that screen baltimore ravens of the side tonight. I think it screams. More of the bigger picture is that. I've been saying it for years with the nfl just in sports betting a general but nobody knows what bush i mean. This is numbers starting to really see it yet. Nfl is a week to week leaves. I mean sometimes it's a game the game thing like you could be covering the whole game and then you could be like cisco and not cover the closing number. So yeah i. I think we're thinking right i. I'm with you on both the side and the total and again that's worked out well for us for some weeks. He's worked out. You know not so well. Some other weeks but The saints game worked out. Okay i mean. We did the band. The dolphins and dolphin saints and opens and the texans too. I mean like we. We talk about that game. I didn't like the texas. I'd love detections haley's comet i call. I'm calling that game where you know you see at once every so many years. When are we going to see jackson. Llewellyn points on the road again i. I don't think it's until next year. Maybe we may not see jacksonville lane points again. Period home more away the rest of the season the ravens of the first half or minus two and a half any value in that or you concerned about the home crowd and the homeadvisor being crazy tonight for allegiance stadium I'm cautious about the first half. Because i think with the way the ravens had to change and just get personnel there. I think you're going to be working a lot of things out in game speed you know in an actual game in the first half i. I don't expect them to have the usual fast. Start or more and these guys have had in years past. I think you guys are almost still introducing themselves to each other and like hey. Where do you like being a hand. The ball off exactly higher lower where we add here you know. So there's a lot of unfamiliarity so that would that would push on pause on the first half of the ravens with you but if this could distinct get two three two three and a half right now. Any shot that the clue three not in town. There's there's no way. I don't think so. I think the books are gonna just sit three and a half now If it gets the three i can tell you that. I personally know guys that are going to be flying to a book. If they don't have the money in their account which a bag of cash to the ravens minus the points. There's no doubt in my mind that they will be doing that. So you might see it. Nationally somewhere because Somebody might panic but after the day that the books had yesterday. You can kind book this game. Let it book itself. You don't really have to move the number now. I think he gets a three and a half and you go okay. Because they're way ahead. It's such a good day yesterday. So it kinda changes the way. There's not much carry over to the game. You can kind of just let the game book shelf. It's interesting to see that because how big of a deal is buying the half a point to you from three and a half to three. It's the only it's the only number in the only Nfl i you never do it in college. Don't ever apply unless you're just not comfortable with six and a half and you have to have seven. But i i don't recommend is the only one i consider it now. Some shops charge a little bit more. You know everywhere. I've ever worked at ten cents. The by half a point so if you go you know six and a half to seven seven and a half of the aid down to seven. It's those vermont as one centimeters. One twenty will now on three is a twenty five ship premium store so a lot of times if it's minus three and a half right now baltimore in the juice. One ten of cost. You minded wants thirty five to get to that three that i really steep. That is really sleep. They're getting i mean. Listen they're pushing the envelope as much as they can and so people were going to do it. We keep doing it. They're gonna keep charging. So i would say i would recommend shopping around and if you can lay just another ten cents three three late. Twenty three quarters even fair But if you have to do the twenty five cent. No don't do it. Just say the money line that way you get just a win if the if the threes bothering you just lady extra juice on the money line and embedded that way rather than just buying a half a point and having all three and you push rather not do that man but it's minus one ninety on the money line who that's that's getting expensive getting to. Yeah that's that's expensive. But and draftkings are both minus three and a half. I'm curious of the people that you know anybody driving to arizona to take advantage of drafting faneuil. Anyone going across the border from here to go down there and getting the free money. So yeah yeah. They're doing it for sure I have that's where my family lives. My sisters live there My mom was there and my brother-in-law who was with me down at saw. We were texting on weekend. He was asking me a bunch of questions about these different places and promo bonuses and accounts. It's not that far you up taking a little john's down there. I'm doing it this week doing it this week. I'm just trying to find the day time. I'm doing it this week. I'm one hundred percent going to go and bed. Mgm draft kings fan duel points. Bet all they all giving free money away that makes it totally worth the whatever drive to the hoover dam and go over the over the state line and go into arizona hundred percent. That's it it it is. It's it's the wild wild west right now going on in every between you and is it's a race to the bottom. It's a race to the bottom. All these promo bonuses and all this crazy stuff. It is and They'll sit when they get enough. Custody opened up two hundred. Seventy one thousand accounts in recorded six point. One million bets. In the first four days of being open in arizona to enter hassle seventy one a cow two hundred thousand accounts they just started firing and firing and fiery like. It's not just like one or two bets like they're placing fifteen twenty. Bats read of the gate right when they opened the account. Oh no my my brother in law did it. I mean he he. He said it's so easy. You did it all on his phone. Yep didn't have to go anywhere and it was. He was live in fifteen minutes the whole process but maybe fifteen minutes and he was live and putting betson. It's he's betting in game we were talking about that Story jersey went over to new jersey for the first time in draftking the sports putting national championship three years ago and i was in my hotel room and loaded five accounts in fifteen minutes. It was the most ridiculous thing. I was so angry. Rounds flying back to vegas. I was so mad. I was like this is ridiculous. How simple the rest of the country has it and we were stuck in the old ages of having to go and drive around town and sit there with paperwork and checks and other crap that we deal with here. It's going to come around. I'm telling you sometimes slow and steady was the race. You have to adapt or die. There's a definite truth to that. You know vegas needs to ramp up a little bit in that regard You know the ease of it and everything. But it's it's it's. It's a lot of spoken mirrors on that into. Yeah no that's absolutely true and in talking about this off the record as well as on the record about where we were seeing a lot of these reporting in la how all these free bets. There's no tax dollars a attached to the free bet. So the you'd have six point one million bets being placed but how much of that was actually like real money being placed down not. Just somebody's free bet or or deposit bonus or whatever that they're offering you're gonna roll over four times for you can withdraw whenever the rules for the book. It's just you know it's not real. It's dealing with like mystery money in fake money. And that's why it's a long conversation but it's interesting to see where we are going but arizona is interesting right now because it's so darn close to nevada in there so much money being offered down there right now on the free on the free role perspective. Time for one more question for you go when you look at college football right now in the game like we have tonight with the raiders and the ravens. We have iowa state coming to town against. Unlv coming up on saturday. The book are we seeing more than usual over the counter business. You hearing about your friends around town. They seeing more than normal traffic over the counter. Oh it's been awesome. It's been happening for years. I've been. I've been saying it. And you know i was the guy in the room. It was like yeah. It's the nfl you know what you call them. And i'm like no. I do out in the books it's longer day. There's more games. Everyone finds value in crazy games. Like biwa which they were arizona state. Unlv this past weekend and then it moves on to the next weekend between the pageantry and where you went to school. There's always something going on in the nfl. Games like jacksonville. Then houston every week. There's there's there's there's just only sixteen games and then when there's buys there's less in there's three or four duds that no one's watching. I mean it was in the book and the jacksonville houston game was in a little corner. Tv only because i know those people watched it because they had jacksonville because they were mad by half time they left angry so i think he's getting all over And by the way baseball still going on the red sox are in the playoffs right now and the yankees if the season ended or not. We'll baseball some other time. By the way someone just bet at points bed two thousand dollars for the ravens to win by thirty one points or more tonight. So someone thinks it's going to be a huge blow out the return pale. We'll be thirty eight thousand dollars so somebody's very confident in a ravens. Blowout is coming tonight to put two grand down and points bet decided to take the bet. So we'll see how that goes my friend. We'll talk on thursday for the boss. Tony versus the book. I always appreciate your time. Let's go ravens over. Yeah please raise the total square place here although typically not a square play kazlo. Everyone likes the raiders tonight. Everyone's on the dog tonight. But i think. I'm gonna have to jump in here with the ravens. I agree that is dave sharpen at sports. Pk con sig on twitter on the progressive guests lined. Much more to come here on pushing the odds. This is pushing the odds on the sports map. Radio network powered by o'reilly auto parts and rocket mortgage live from las vegas. Here's meth paroled. So i just told you about that. Big bet at points bet. Two thousand thirty eight thousand. Someone just set me. Same game parlay from fan tool. That is plus fifty. Two thousand to five dollar bet would pay out two thousand seven hundred dollars for ravens money lined first first-quarter ravens money line second quarter. David's money line third quarter and ravens money line fourth quarter including a tie and then the the margin of victory would be between one and thirteen points. Wow that interesting someone does ask me am i am i m i. The money is coming in here on the under. Am i still concerned. Yeah i am a hundred percent. I like the people are betting on the tonight. Okay i do and look. I've been wrong before. I abi wrong again. But i as long as the raiders. Score were good. Okay as long as the raiders score. We're going to be fine. Betting the over draft has just sent out there all my. What a flip. Who baby all right. This is interesting okay. So this morning. I told you raiders plus four. The majority of the money was coming in here on the raiders. Now the baltimore. Ravens are sixty. Five percent of the handle in sixty four percent of the bets have come in here on the ravens but the number just went to three and a half. so we've got reverse line movement and we've got the money on the ravens and the handle and the bets on the ravens yet. The numbers going down so is respected money. Coming in here on the raiders. This is really interesting to me. Okay i got to watch this little bit more. I like the ravens. Tonight i do. I like the over a lot. I still like the over. Even though fifty four percent of the bets on the over fifty one percent of the money on the under fine with that. I've got no. I got no problem with that. I got no issue with that. I'm i'm totally cool with you. Know it such a narrow coin flip type thing. It's not like there's overwhelming amounts of money but the money flip is interesting. Let me read lincoln back and look at this real quick where we were a couple of our hours ago at draftkings so draftkings. Initially this morning reported that they were at. That wasn't what i was looking at. Where's the other one other draft kings numbers will. Did i delete delete it. Yeah they get deleted. It was much. It was much different for monday night than where we were now. There was a lot of money. That come in on the raiders. Tonight which had their number pretty skewed in rightfully so because people were looking at home dogs. But again i am. I do believe that this is going to be a ravens win tonight. And a couple of reasons. Why i think lamar jackson a big problem. And i do like lamar jackson props tonight a lot with him. Running the football. I think there are some big problems with that defense. That i don't think have been fixed and i do expect a high scoring shootout type of game back and forth game because i do think. The market's peterson. Your is pretty big for the ravens. I think they're all reeling. But i liked the raiders and everyone's saying home field advantage going to be monster it very well might be monster okay. I think we're in for a really good game tonight. I think to be back and forth battle the mark jackson. I think the difference maker in the week number one is put up some huge numbers. I just don't think the raiders have an answer for a quarterback like this. And i think they'll score i do. I just don't know if they can keep up with this ravens offense. When you've got a guy like the mark. Jackson that can run around and go crazy. And the raiders. On defense are looking for all sorts of help. And they need a pass rush. They don't have a pass rush they don't and that's a big issue. They haven't addressed it since trading away. Khalil mack they haven't addressed the pass rush. So i know they've got guys who they like because they can come in and do big plays new guys who've come in and look. I want the raiders to be good. I bet the over six. And a half wins on the raiders. It closed at seven. But i bet the over six and a half over the summer. This was one of the games. I thought was a winnable game given the atmosphere. I mean it's going to be electric instead of allegiance stadium tonight and it's gonna be really fun to see a crowd with a raider game going on a regular season. Primetime game in vegas. We've been talking about this game this type of atmosphere literally for five years when we started talking about the raiders moving from oakland to las vegas. We said men. What would it be like on the strip on a monday night. Football raider game. What with the market looked. Like what would the casinos look like. What would the the betting floor look like. What would the books look like. We're going to see it all tonight for the first time. I'm really tempted to go out tonight. To go down to circa or go down to like two caesars or something in go and walk around a book to get a feel for what the books are going to be like because it just this is history. Like we've never seen this before so i. i think i'm gonna wind up doing that. Because i want to check out what vegas is going to be like for a game for this is going to be. We're gonna have the draft here in april. We're gonna have a super bowl at some point here in in vegas like i want to know what the market does what it feels like here for a raider home game. Where you've got all eyes staring straight at las vegas atta legion stadium. And this is why vegas. The secondary ticket market for raider games was exploding all year long now. It's down a bit because of the kobe. nineteen vaccine requirement. But it's still huge. It's still there. are you know. The raiders are every game for the raiders at home now just behind the patriots hosting the tip of bucks when brady goes back. So that's a big deal right. That'll be a huge but after that it's all raider games. Everybody wants to come here. Everyone wants tickets to watch their team. Play chief fans wanna come here bronco. Fan wanna come here makes sense for big visual games. Can't wait for so interesting to see what this is going to look like coming up here tonight for monday. Night football next. Let's talk about the ravens where they are jonas schaefer. Join us talking ravens injuries in the game tonight for monday night football. How live or the ravens to win this game. You're listening to push on the sports map radio network powered by o'reilly auto parts and rocket mortgage from las vegas. Here's math parole. Fortunately is being brought to you five. Mako there are scratches. There are dent and unexpected. Natural events of life throws you a os. Just say better get. Mako had to make mako dot com to get an online estimate today. Let's talk monday night. Football ravens raiders. We spent some time on a second ago. That's continue doing so with jonas schaffer from the baltimore sun covering the ravens for us here on the progressive gets line. Jonas map peralto aria. I'm doing great. I'm great that's coming on. Okay so give us an injury. Update five guys. Go down with seasoning injuries for the ravens. Another gets hurt. How significant which is the worst of the six injuries. The ravens have suffered and just where the team is mentally. After what happened in practice last week you know. I think a lot of the headlines and deservedly so over the past however. Many weeks has been focused on the running backs. I think a lot of that is because you know. They're lot fantasy owners across the country invested fairly ibex jacob dobbins or maybe got that words or maybe someone took a flyer on just hail but i think considering what this ravens defense is built on which is from the back to the front. Marcus peters lav is probably the biggest i mean. You just can't find guys like that on the street guys who you know since two thousand fifteen. No one has taken the ball away more than he has. She's great man coverage which is what wink martindale coordinator relied so much on to help him. Dial up those pressures now the weird stuff that he does so You know they competent. Anthony apr. it's going to be the guy to step up. I think he all for talent. But obviously it's one thing to have a tracker occurred. Like margaret speeders says. And it's thank to kind of come in with the uneven one that mean every so you know. We only got a chance to see him a couple of times since they had just awful rash of injuries on wednesday. They said they took the data more and they got back at. It seemed like they were not good spirits high energy but obviously You know if they get hitting them out early tonight You may be a situation bobble. So what do you make of the ravens defense against tight ends. They do not give up many touchdowns two tight ends. Do give up yardage two tight ends. And obviously darren waller. Tonight for the raiders. Is their number one. Pass catching weapon with peters out. How does that screw up. The rotation for the secondary when the raiders. Obviously wanna throw the football if and even more so. If jacobs can't go tonight yeah. I could be wrong this back. I think i remember looking this off. Season affable outsiders. And i do their mcgrady advance on winning the ravens were. It's not the worse. They were one of the worst in the league at defending hide ends So you know kill. He's going to be a problem for the next week. But obviously tonight focused daring waller. I that they have a bunch of guys with a bunch of interesting skill. That maybe you you know. Trust someone like patrick queens kind of shadow innings zone coverage Maybe in brennan stevens. Who's the the rookie third round. Pick out of a smu who got you can fly around a really big frame. They don't have jimmy smith In all likelihood you know he's he's already been ruled out so He's very interesting. Guys the cover tight and so you know. I don't think it's going to be one guy. Track him all. Open the field And maybe they would like that option at jimmy. Smith were were work. No healthy enough to play They're really gonna have to rely on a bunch of guys to cover around. Because if josh jacobs can't obviously the the las vegas august only twenty percent. So lamar jackson has put up huge numbers in week. One is there anything to that. Is that just who they're playing or is there something about the preparation. That coach harbaugh has the time he has. He's able to scheme up some really difficult match ups for defenses to stop his quarterback. Well you remember back in two thousand nineteen. It was a miami dolphins met ever went back. Teeth would finish s season without a win. So i think that was a game that announced that only have good raisins would be that year but also maybe how bad my auntie would be but the last year in credit to them that that was a a pretty good not. Great cleveland. defense ended up finishing the season You know helping them kind of gets the playoffs They weren't strength fight over the browns. But still i think lamar after putting a perfect passer rating and that twenty nineteen game you got to pass rating for at least two or three quarters against cleveland The run game really carry them Even when other past game was with a little bit in some spots here mayor so We don't know exactly You know just how well and how much of the season is gonna carry over. But the ravens have won. Twenty straight preseason games than it looks like. they're finally getting healthy receiver which is not something that they have the advantage of During a preseason. So it'll be interesting. I think mars agassi are gonna the best quarterback on field there but You know las vegas from lafayette and so we'll see. Do you see lamar jackson. Throwing the ball. More than twenty times tonight. I think probably. I think you know it's tough because maybe the ravens scale with a lotta. Rpo's which is something that they do not as much as someone like kansas city. So it's up to the defense and how they're playing him and you know basically dictating the him what he sees as the best read but i think twenty th is definitely pretty good I never got hill. Hit pretty safely. I think you invest as much as they have this off season in the wide. Receiver group. you know obviously eight minutes. It's gonna be able to go tonight but bringing sammy watkins bringing in two new coaches position for deadened dna. James prochet those guys who have stepped up their games and their second year. I would be surprised if they were lucky to pass the ball as much as they happen in your thoughts. Where do you see a weakness on this offense. Obviously this is a team that wants to run the ball but they've got backup running back so it clearly understand that but the mark jackson is the best running that running back to the guy anyway. Where's the big concern for you offensively for this baltimore ravens team. Obviously the health wide receiver is the big issue Hollywood brown missed basically a a month with a answering issue. I think chance to fight anybody. Soon games samuakai beyond about his checkered medical history or saw bateman Does not have a long medical history but still. He's going to be at least for the first three weeks. Mad longer as he recovers from from going surgery. Miles boykin Starter for us in baltimore. He's also on. I r right now so You know they have watkins back. They have pug back. But we don't exactly know just how they're gonna look out there especially with not having chemistry not having those reps But elsewhere. I think it just goes back to the flying three build you have i'll hundred illinois that right tackle after playing left tackle for most of its career. You have stanley coming back from a pretty serious off. Any ankle injury it bradley. Bozeman out spot. Senator kevin zeitler. Maybe on you know twilight of his career right guard got a question mark. I left guard. We don't know who's going to start there. It's probably gonna be taibbi phillips but You were asking a lot you know. Those guys to be a cohesive unit in week one but if they are and the great sign for moving forward because the one of the nfl draft lines and twenty nineteen. And i was surprised they usually the nfl's best off. So the broncos looked halfway decent yesterday and you're in a division with the steelers. You get the chiefs coming up next week. Is this a big game tonight for the ravens. Do they need to win this game tonight. I think so. I think so just just for that reason. We all know exactly how one sided this. This rivalry with the chief has been ravens. Played them every year since two thousand eighteen that was even with lamar Taking over for joe flacco in the back of that of that season and they haven't been able to beat them and the she's again have looked you know for at least one afternoon like worldbeaters That they they have scared. Scrape personnel They're going to get back matthew so it's just all the more incumbent on the ravens to take care of business. My colleague mike preston wrote that. This is maybe the most important ravens regular season opener In history and he's covered the team. For as long as i've been in baltimore so Big big stakes but again The year that they finished fourteen two they started the season two. So you don't want to overreact to about star especially with john harbaugh controls so lamar jackson has decided to focus on playing football. Not getting a new deal. He does not have an agent. He wants to go out and put up numbers that then caused the team to one. Open up the brinks truck and give him a bunch of money. How motivated every player is motivated. But is there any extra motivation to lamar jackson to put up big numbers this season because of whereas contract is it's tough to get on. Just how much he cares about the money at every comment that he's made is straight advocacy. Our handbook so it's really really tough pal. I think more than anything. He just wants to win the super bowl And obviously the players who can take you to the promised land the ones who are going to make the most money i think right now probably the baseline is josh allen deal that he signed a couple of months ago now josh on housing one. It'd be the lamar. Jackson has mar jackson's. Only i think twenty four. I think you might have twenty five So you know you're talking about a guy who has a lot of room to grow Who is a committed. Worker obviously has been a a bit of a red flag but still I just don't think you can take your chances with extorts. Realized they weren't able to get a deals on and you're the guy who plays a somewhat risky strategy In out there without a deal secured by doing business so you gotta respect also interesting. What do you think you mentioned tonight. At the team gets smacked in the mouth they might waver and wobble a little bit but ultimately can the ravens will the ravens. Come in here in win in a rocking atmosphere in the first game at allegiance stadium with fans. Yeah man. I'm i before for all kind of broke loose. I think my pick was about twenty seven twenty ravens I think with them. Losing losing marketeers. You'd probably fair to say it'll be you know closer. I think the line right now. It's about four which seems fair. Twenty seven point three resulted is obviously their day possible. But i think you know despite the atmosphere they're gonna have the best quarterback on the field. They're going to have the best defense on the field. Best special teams and the best head coach with the best coaching staff. So i i think it's awfully the screw something like that up and just really really late laying egg but You know the atmosphere can can go for a lot and this is gonna be again. That raiders fans. I've been looking for a long long while so might as well. Just throw the record bucks. When he's yeah. I don't know. I just i think this ravens offense with lamar jackson. Too tough to be stopped. I think it's a high scoring game numbers down to three and a half though so a lot of people. Were expecting the raiders to keep this close to what happened over the weekend. But i just i can't see that trend continuing. I like the ravens. Tonight should be a really interesting matchup. Jonas good stuff man they come in on time that is generally for at jonas schaefer. Sorry jonas underscore shafer on twitter. Cover the ravens for the baltimore sun for us here on the progressive guest line again. The latest number at faneuil is three and a half at fan duel if you look across. Let me update this across the entire betting spectrum draft kings faneuil or at three and a half points pets at three Sorry points to the four fox. Three and a half but mgm's at four caesar's at four twin spires at four so draft kingston vandal at the market. Low at the moment. If you like the ravens betting at fan doan draftkings would be beneficial. Draftees reporting though more money really. I mean kind of flipped everything on its head ravens. Money has come in in a big way. Sixty five percent of the handle sixty four percent of the bats who've come in here on the ravens as of mid day today draft kings. The number went down to three and a half even though the number of handle in the money coming in here on the ravens interesting. So that's i'm going to tiptoe here. I like the over. That's my full unit. Play bought my half. A unit play is probably going to be ravens minus three and a half final hand next year pushing the this is the final hand. Own pushing the odds. Here's matt paroled. Follow him for us here on a monday. I'm on the over fifty and a half. There is fifty fifty on that. I'm just going. I'm going with the over. I think we're seeing points tonight. I'm going to have a half a unit play on the ravens minus three and a half. If they don't get three. I'll take three and a half. I don't love it. I could see the raiders playing really well with the home field advantage. So but i also see the ravens getting to a lead and taking all the air out of the building really could i mean it's just i dunno lamar jackson just a crazy difference maker for me in this game. So i do. I think the raiders are going to be from behind. And because of that. Darren waller over sixty eight and a half yards receiving for darren waller and i'm going over thirty eight and a half yards receiving for and we rugs and rugs could get on one one or two pass plays. They're gonna work them in way. More look much better. In the year two in the system with derek carr and i just think as we just heard from jonas schafer the ravens do not guard tight ends well at all and waller at home last year average eighty eight point five yards per game receiving and he adds monsters a couple of hundred fifty two hundred yard game at home last year. So i think they're gonna big night tonight. Catching the football. They don't give up touchdowns in the red zone. That's the one thing that the ravens do not do. They do not give up touchdowns two tight ends but they do give up yards like crazy all over the field too tight ends. So i like waller over receiving tonight tight end wise over sixty eight and a half i like rugs over thirty and a half yards receiving tonight here for tonight for a couple of props ravens minus three and a half for half a unit and the over for a full unit tonight for the ravens and the raiders on monday. Night football tomorrow. I do want to get into the rankings for college football and the joke that iowa is as being a top five team that is like fall down funny to me that the iowa hawkeyes our top five team that is a clown show ranking of college football and why these rankings are the stupidest thing ever if ohio state lined up with iowa right now the buckeyes would slap them around like like there'd be no tomorrow like just it's a joke to me that we don't let is do the talking as to what goes i was offense sucks. Excuse my language. Okay sucks if you're if you actually think that the hawkeyes won that game against iowa state because of their offense you're blind right. They won the game because of their defense but mostly was iowa. State's inability to convert and their punter was phenomenal. Okay like let's just you're beating indiana team that was overrated in iowa state tea. That's never ready for primetime. Because they're iowa state and while they will never be ready for primetime it's iowa state and why the big twelve adding houston in byu in cincinnati and ucf. They're not power five conference. Okay there the american and everyone knows it. So it's like great guys. You're adding four teams. That's wonderful but who are you adding all right. That's adding so get out of here. I will be in a top five team that is. I saw that this morning. And i i honestly like started laughing. The who voted for the hawkeyes to be a top five team in the country. Right now todd. Furman is also tweeting. Some amazing stuff that before from saturday the game. Two point eight yards per play. Two point eight yards per play. Look out for those top. Five hawkeye's ri- tomorrow. More takover pushing the odds at sports. Talk in the meantime.

ravens raiders lamar jackson dave sharpen las vegas titans cardinals super bowl arizona football vegas baltimore matt paroles Dave sheridan matt matt nagy Nfl Alamo jacob ted hendricks
Oscars Best Bets With Rachel Bonnetta (Ep. 94)

Against All Odds with Cousin Sal

54:00 min | 2 years ago

Oscars Best Bets With Rachel Bonnetta (Ep. 94)

"Today's episode is brought to you by captain Morgan the official captain of against all odds. We're raising our glasses of captain Morgan ginger to all you captains out there. Whether you're tugboat, captain, captain of your intramural, dodgeball team just lift to have fun. You're all captains in our book. And I'm to how you choose to live like a captain, captain Morgan remind you to please drink responsibly. Captain's orders. I welcome to against all odds. Part of the ringer podcast network. Hudsell here master tape Frazier. The CEO of this podcast. What's happened and take not too much excited to be in the studio special edition Oscars up. So very exciting. Yes. This is good that the Jenner try to have a little break here. And we are going to go to well, what a treat this as I I don't see her Rachel Bonetti everybody. She's here is my co host of lock it in four thirty five thirty PM eastern on f s one up when when when did I see you last Rachel it's been I haven't not seen you today. There's not been a moment. It's a lot. Yeah. Yeah. So Rachel, and I do the show. We've been doing it for what six months, six months. Yeah. That sounds right. That's a sports gambling show. She does a great job. I agree with this. But my wife pointed out to me, I she's like Rachel is the best part of the show crap. She isn't she's me play traffic argue with Todd Furman, and we make bets most. Losing bets. And you you inject some smart, things and smart talk. And also do a nice job babysitting. I try to do some smart talk. It feels like a babysitting job more. So, but no, it's a lot of fun. And none of us knew each other at all before we started doing this show. And now we see each other every single day. And I would say, we're we're friends say that okay? Okay. No. Yeah. We're we're all buddies. They're going to be going to show we're doing a week from Vegas. It's a fun show. We got out of football basketball Tate. We're going to need a little help with basketball. I think I am at least you come on the show Tate and just replace clay Travis you, no one listens to anything. He says anyways because no one really respected, right? I think that you would be a better better fan. I think so you could be glazed little brother Tate Travis. Rainy travis's as my uncle. We get you in there. Yeah. So we need help with a little college basketball. It's all coming together March madness tournament, but we have to get through this Oscar stuff. Yeah. Now, they're six big categories. We're going to cover those. We're going to hop on captain Morgan's riverboat casino going to take a ride talked about a fake gambling proposition. We're gonna give you the best bets in these Ostra categories. And I think we'll start with first of all there's no host this year. Now, how do you feel about that you could actually bet on if there would be a host if there would be, but they had odds that stupid is at odds on like Amy Schumer who is going to be like eleven months pregnant. I mean that would be probably pretty entertaining lots of lake having the baby at that moment jokes issue. But as long as there is a song and dance number at the top of the show. I don't anybody, but a white male doing it. I would be happy with really some some a little tap. We'll jazz a little some kind of singing that's how I want the Oscars to start. Why do you hate white male? So well, do you really want me to get into this or just because you were white male? Yeah. He'll lay I think it's a time for a different podcast. But. No, I don't have. I mean, Kevin Hart. I think would have been great. But then there was too much controversy wouldn't have been enjoyable after. I think they came at kinen would have been awesome. Sure. She did something with like the Golden Globes, right? Yeah. Why what Jimmy could've come back for Joe? Talking about the the, oh, I thought you talking about a musical act being a white male. No, I'm saying open, the Oscars musical number. Okay. Which people usually do Steve Martin Martin short. I mean, I wouldn't have been mad at those guys coming back. Though, a what both white males? Yes. Maybe we're putting that back on the list. Justin Timberlake, the first year Jimmy hosted the Oscars two years ago came out and and blew the house away. And it was great at set the tone, and it was terrific. And but I think in general you probably don't need an Oscar hose my cousin Jimmy's insane. He checked himself. Unlike every act, but in general, I think you don't see the Oscar host much after the monologue. No, they come in for like little little bits and pieces. But I think it's already like what three hours long as well. So I think that if anything not having host will maybe quicken the pace. So that's the other thing they did they gave four technical awards or giving them out during the commercial. I saw that. And they're like some of the most important one, cinematography, and editing editing got edited out of the show. Yeah. But it, but everyone's make hair they all got shafted, very weird. But they want they want to cut it down. All right. Well, so it's going to be a shorter show. I don't know if it's going to be as detaining, there's gonna be no Kevin Hart. But let's get right into best. Supporting actress now we've seen almost all these movies. I have seen all of them. You have. Okay. We have Regina king. If Bill street could talk at minus two eighty Amy Adams, vice three to one Rachel. You don't have to make a noise after Rachel Weiss, the favourite eight to one marina data VERA for Roma fifteen one and Emma stone at twenty to one who do you think will win? And who I hope I think that I think Regina king will probably win. She won the Golden Globe. But like we were talking about earlier. I don't know if she was in enough scenes, she was great from from the gecko. I was like, okay. She is a totally different person than she was really in it, and she was flowing. And but I just she wasn't. I mean, I know it's supporting actress, but I feel like she was maybe in ten minutes of the entire movie. Amazon was really great. She and that'd be a good payout of plus thousands. She was really fun to watch love that movie. I didn't like it so much. We'll talk more about it. When we get the best picture, but the favorite is spelt in the Canadian way treat you don't need to do racial from Canada. She will mention that. Probably seven or eight times. But I I liked him sound. So you didn't. I dunno. Just freaked me out the whole thing a little bit. Oh, do you. Do you? Like every lesbian move. Like, whatever I want. Eight is that true. She allowed to like anything she wants saying so reading Amy Adams. I did like her in there. I think that was like the best part of ice are scenes with him and dressing Dick Cheney down and everything she was she was pretty good. But I think yeah. In general, you need to be in the movie more like Regina king was an and I know she can only read what's on the script. But when she and by the way, there's going to be spoilers throughout. So we haven't seen his movies turns ours. This is not the podcast or you. But when she goes to Puerto Rico to clear her soon to be son in law's name. Yeah. And she has to find the rape victim or son-in-law was wrongly accused and convince the rape victim that hey, you identify the wrong guy. Just basically because the cops set it up that way, I wouldn't have left Puerto Rico until I got her to write that that bugged me so much maybe something that people don't know about you is your very claustrophobic that scene made me really claustrophobic for whatever reason she's like standing in an alley just had a freak out. And she's like, there's no way you you realize there is no way she's gonna that. She went to Puerto Rico, and she's actually going to get done what she needed to get. And I just felt like so trapped and she played that scene. Great. She was crying, and she had like a very nice moment. But that's about it. That's really all. I remember from her performance. Should there? Be when it when it comes to best supporting actress or actor should there be an amount of minutes that you must be on the screen in order for you to be nominated in baseball, two more. Definitely you need a certain amount of at bats to qualify for the batting average title. And all these. Other things. So yeah, I'm kind of with you. But they used to give it to Dame Judi Dench. And she would just basically come on and wave it is. How is that it really she's Dame? Oh, I didn't know that. Okay. So this is Dame Regina king now up for this. But yes, so she won the she was snubbed in the sag award. She won the golden Glasser won the Golden Globe gave it to who. Did they give it to? They gave. Did they? Oh, Emily blunt for a quiet place. She was snubbed any Oscars. If Emily wants name was on this list. I would've I would be the well my gosh. Did you see why plays? I did. So good. I love him we block. Yeah. Of course. She could've said a little more though. I guess I guess it's whatever's on this group. The Roma Roma that was the mother and Roma. She was she's fine. Yeah. It was very real pages. Casted a bunch of real people, which is like all the actors set out to do doing real people. Her in you'll eat Zia. We'll talk about in a second of the best. I thought that they did really. Well, I just so saying Regina king is good value twain and should probably win because there were no other standout performances. I just like, Emma stone. Gotcha. All right. Take you saw all these movies, right? What do you think? Yeah. Did surprisingly. So I that's almost the my tho Regina team was great. So I mean, I'm totally that wasn't minus two eighty right for. So that's I mean, that's pretty much a pretty penny. A nice bet though because we could parlay these together. I know guy knows God again. I trust the guy that lost twenty seven thousand five hundred excuse me. It was twenty seven seven fifty. Twenty five hundred that guy you could trust. But but I think Regina kings a good one to put on our Oscar parlay, I would say so. Yeah. By the way, you need to make twenty dollars back because you apart of that saints back. I did send you, you know, you you told me that you wanted me to send you something that would really make me upset loss because he would be a good reaction on our show. No, no. But I said, okay, I'll do that. And then I went home, and I've been mode you twenty dollars dollar twenty dollars. I think it's a pretty penny. Listen, I'm trying I'm trying to buy a house here. So I know I'm thinking about one twenty dollars would have heard me like trying to when you were five. I just have so many twenty dollars laying now gusting. All right. Regina king. We liked that. Yeah. Best supporting actor. This is a runaway. Odds wise. You look at this Mahershala Ali this is the kind of body of work best supporting actor or actress should do. He's in what seventy percent of the movie and maybe not in the way, beginning definitely hit the cap minutes required. I or maybe he should be best actor. Yeah. I think so too because eagle Mortenson is nominated for best empire and they were in. I went today the exact same amount of scenes. I really like my her Sheila, I really love him and true detective and I loved him in green book. I think that those are two he's just such a great actor those are two completely different people. And I think he plays them both. So well. If I want him to win though, really why I think he will win. I mean, obviously, he's not a why should love that about him. I think he will win K. Okay. But I also really like Richard E grant so good. I think he was awesome. I remember that movie can you ever forgive me? And also, did you see the video of him finding out he was nominated for an Oscar now, I mean, he's been an actor for so long. And I believe this is first Oscar nomination, and he was he did the video standing in front of his old apartment when he was growing up as an actor. And he was just like a comeback to this place to announce that I've been nominated for an Oscar, and it was very cool moment. Nice. So he's seven to one odds. Yeah. So you think that's a risk? We're taking. Here's the thing about the Oscars is sometimes they throw you for a loop. You can you can stack all these award shows up who one of the Golden Globes who wanted to sag and one of the BAFTA, and then Oscar could come out with a hail Mary. And it's people they would have no idea. So that's the that's the thing. Betting on the opposite is true. All them weary of all those three though sag Golden Globe and BAFTA he hit all three. And that is a pretty good murder. Cater. Yes. Well, you see how big of a favorite is. I I would take Marshall. He was great in it. Now, people love Sam Elliott. And then a star is born he was very good in the ZIM. But they're only four at the most. It was great. But he always plays it a disgruntled cowboy trail. Like he was that same. He's the same. Sam Elliott that I've seen in other things. Don't you think? Yeah. Sure. Sure. I didn't. I I knew that was it's not. Yeah. It's not like he was playing like a gay man or something that we've never seen him do before. I don't think he was really pushing his boundaries. That's another thing to consider too. It was like how outside of the box. They need to go. Absolutely. And so okay in that regard. Do you think Adam driver went outside the box for black klansman? I thought he was really good at Ivan's. I saw that movie. Like the beginning of the year whenever it came out. I really like him one time out. We were we shared a flight. So I feel like we've got kind of a bond. Oh, yeah. I don't think he'll win though. Really? No. I don't think he had the same kind of her seven sure to fly with any of these other guys. Okay. Are you too? Girls fan who am I say, you will like were Shoshana, right? Literally, the most annoying person on that show. Take. Did you watch girls? Yeah. I've watched a few no-show shot. You're talking about inglorious bastards at first real tough. When Rachel walked in here. You like, oh, that's Shoshana careful. Of course, not of course, not she's wrong of Shana Sam Rockwell vice fifty to one just knocked them away. Best supporting actor, they should be in the in like two scenes. He played w he looked great. He was great. And I loved his vocal his accidents. Okay. So I like my her Shali minus fourteen hundred on a parlay will bring our odds down to something. We like Tate is there anyone else who could win this not really, right? Actually like Rockwell is like a really long shot odds, just he's a darling dot. Yeah. They they love Sam Rockwell last year for three billboards. Yeah. A little bit. You know, maybe go a little political here, and you know, give vice a little hat tip give Dirac well again, go back to back. Vice did do so well in these other vices Christian belt's gonna win for vice we'll to spoil. Unbelievable. All right. But as far as our parley goes, Marsha we've gone, Regina, Marsha this one doesn't really help our odds because it's such a one runaway favourite best director Alphonso Koran from Roma minus two thousand Spike Lee, black Landsman plus five fifty Powell Paulo Caskey now nail tastes. You. Saw this Cold War twenty five to one. How did you see this movie Tate? I can't believe you went to the theatre and saw. No, I saw it at home and in the comfortable. You know, the with the screener, I've I've blessed a living dream though. I didn't get a screener. It was a roommate of mine worked for so legally. Yeah. No wonder brothers, not not illegally. Now. Like, we're filming you know, this stuff. I mean, maybe okay. You roommate gave it to you it together. It was a great movie. I it's really good. Yes. It is in black and white as well as Roma. What was great at? What else was great about? It the start will. I mean, I guess she's the co star of Joanna cure league is her name. She's polish great actor as a great. I mean, the whole movie is just beautifully shot. So I wanna see this. But it's it's an Amazon film. But it's on Amazon comes it comes on March. I think. Yeah. All right. Well, we'll have to wait Adam McKay from vice thirty three to one, and I you're the favorite. Oh. Yeah. I mean, I I really like how phone so I really liked Roma. Adam McKay, I love what was the other movie they needed the big short. So I really like him. But you mentioned to me before I watched this movie, you're like he it was a little heavy handed. He tried to jam so much into this movie that I had to watch twice. I'd watch vice twice. You didn't love at the first. I didn't like it the first time because I think I just didn't wrap my brain around thing. But then you said that when P drag your feet your boyfriend that down drag your feet p potsy, and I I liked it a lot better the second time just because I think I just took more of it in. But it's almost there's just so much in it. You almost have to watch twice a lot. Yeah. But like we said he's going to run. Now, I thought to scenes one this for for our friend. I'll fons, oh, which one's the giving birth scene than the that was the stillborn really tough cuts. First of all there's not a lot of cuts. Anyway, there's a bunch of five minute uncut scenes like start to finish. And that was that was pretty spectacular and moving and everything and I had never seen anything like that. Very very sad. The saving the drowning. Kid was another one. Oh, yes. Still don't know how they shot that. And it went on and on and on it must have been some on some kind of doc or like some kind of here. Those who were amazing and I'll say as a millennial. I can't really sit still in watch a whole lot of long scenes nothing is happening. But that one but both scenes just captured my attention so much because there was so much going on it was beautifully shot. It they were so heavy and they were so raw. It's like, well, I've literally never seen anything. I've never in my life seen something like this being portrayed a in real life. I've say or be in film. So he was like really daring that sure I think, but I really like them in the and I'm very shallow. Like, I went into this thinking, screw this. This should be a foreign language film. They oh great. It's in black and white, and I have to read subtitles. But I was blown away. The I I what I thought was for the first three quarters of the movie, I was like what is this movie about because nothing really happens. I mean, you're following this girl's life. She gets pregnant, and it's like, yeah. It's the dog keeps pooping in the driveway and say, all right. What's happening? Like, we turned it off. And then I came into work and everyone's just like, oh my God. It's so sad. And I was like I'm must have missed a lot up. We went back and watched it. And then we go my gods. What we were missing out on two most incredible scenes in film of the entire year. Yeah. So it's really great. I really liked that many. I will say a black klansman was really well shot. There was one scene in particular when they come up on a hallway, and you can see the the cross on on fire through the window. Do you remember that just kind of goes like oh Schwartz? I thought that that was end Spike Lee. He did a nice job with us. What am I looking at this? I wish I had seen that Cold War. What about the favorite you love that movie? You don't think that was? Well, you didn't. I mean, that's not what stuck out to me. No, I guess it's not that hard to make the Hatfield house and Hartford Scher looked pretty. Yeah. There's nothing really like stood out to me Mexico. Exactly. Yeah. It looked beautiful. But other than that. I didn't really one snub. I'll give you a snob. I think that if Beale street could talk should be nominated for check because there were so many shots that I just like kind of like paused it and was like, whoa. This is really really cool. So I think that was a huge snap. I voted for that one. Actually. All right. Well, I'll give you a I'll give you a hundred to one odds how much to put down. Can't trick me. Like this Tate. Would you like is it L Fonda? Okay. Five bucks? That's fair. Yeah. I mean, I think Cold War. I would love for that to win. I think deserve to win. But I think Iran and that goes back to best actress sue, so if it if they go full Roma marina wins. And then he wins for best director, you know. That's maybe put that altogether. If you think Rome was gonna sweep Ankara he was nominated for our he won for gravity right years ago. He's he's played this game before. Yeah. It's interesting to gamble del Toro Koran. Those guys, I didn't believe crafty. I wasn't buying it. I was all right. Let's take a break. 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This brings us doors. Sponsored so captain Morgan's make believer boat dessino each week. We set sail. Tackling make made up gambling propositions related to sports and pop culture events this one captain Morgan's taking it easy on us. It's not not much of a thinker. Although I think it's going to inspire a lot of arguing here. What is the best in honor of the Oscars? What is the best movie theater? Candy is it sour patch? Kids at five to to raise a nets three to one twizzlers four to one junior men's nine to two snow caps. Six to one or the field. You can take anything else at seventy two the Neta fire away. I haven't even had all of these before. American, and I haven't what do you think is my favorite? Let me say something you can give to your dog. So chocolate. Your favorite is. Twizzlers now. That's that. Now sour patch kids. It is. But I will say I'll take a I'll actually. I'll take the field because what I used to do at the movie theater. There's in Canada. That's that's the. There's shake on popcorn seasoning. Which is everywhere. But in Canada, there's catch up once. So I used to put on catch all my popcorn and put the sour patch kids in there. So I would have a handful of like sweet and sour and salty. That's how I that's what I the part where you catch ketchup seasoning. You're saying up seasoning, go online porn. No, not pouring in a seasoning like a powder, and you pour that on your popcorn. And then you would pour. The so the patch kids in there. And then then you're gonna have a delicious believable mess now. Catching napkins, you put ketchup on actual catch up on macaroni and cheese on most eight. I'll catch them on my toes, smack concertos. Yeah. Toast. Drager few pizza and. The thing is website that features that God. I am on a foot fetish website. She is she believes state. Yeah. I can't I can't. Stuff. She sends us pictures me clay and Todd every so often, but blacks out her feet. It's like, I don't I don't know what the point of this is just there's a comment on the bible. Very good for you. I'm gonna go even lower though. Now that people know you like sour patch kids. What is yours? Minds raise the nets. Really? Ramp up. What are you talking about? Are you? Disagree with me. I've had reason that's with popcorn. Right. You know? That's the deal deal on little by little you get that chocolate and salty chocolate on the Popeye. Psycho taken by the way. I I love this combination so much raising. That's important. I had a streak of fourteen straight movies that I finished the popcorn a large popcorn with raisin. That's before. The previews were done. Why your mother is texting you? My wife shakes her head. And the kids are like what's going on? What am I sitting at sitting? Another row. But yeah, the fifteenth one I just it was like two or three previews. I couldn't couldn't get a data aggressive to get through in the previous how much earlier. You have to all right tape. What is yours? I am. I loved by. I can't believe there's another answer. I think the I'm taking the field because reece's PC's recently. Insane. It right. Yeah. Exactly. But they these pieces like PC's on regular North Carolina because we. PC's PC's. Yeah. That's what we call them. And then you dump the Risi PC's in the popcorn. And it's the same thing as the reason as. Hey, this is what it is pieces. Yes. Okay. That's good. Yeah. I don't know about peanut butter and popcorn though. That's the only thing. Well, peanut butter cut, like reese's, peanut butter cups. Yeah. Those are great. But and I would rob my teeth out for those dedicated life without teeth those we had a weird that a weird, but you will wrong we had Halloween candy debate a few months ago. Yeah. You said mounds wasn't the best you're wrong. How is mound smell of all the Halloween. Candy, the could put into your system. Mounds is number one. Let me tell you if they had mounds at the movie theater, I would never leave. Live there. My mom listened to this conversation. And she texted me, and she was like I've got begs of mounts as she loves them so much, and I said mom, I'm never talking to you. That's true. Tell me some bouts movie theater, candy and Canada. What are we missing out? Well, okay. We've got. Fuzzy peaches years don't have those there. We've got Sweden Swedish berries do guys have those here we do. Right. Swedish fish, we've got Swedish berries, they're the same taste. But they're they look like raspberry. And then we've got we've got so much popcorn seasoning. That's a real thing. At movie theaters. There's like dill pickle. There's catch up. There's cheddar sour cream cheeses, right? Yeah. What that must be all kinds of Chia parmesan cheese. Oh, yeah. But catch up was my main that was what main thing and then fuzzy peaches is always a good Goto two popcorn doesn't need ketchup one of the things that don't knock until you try it. I don't think I will bring home I will bring back some ketchup seasoning for you and extent to don't save it. Save to get that. Customs. Why what do you put a catch up on other than meat just in general in life, French fries? Alfred grilled cheese. Sweet you dip, your grilled cheese and ketchup kitchen. -opoly in Canada. Be what do you dip your cheese in nothing nothing? It's grilled cheese. It's fun. It's ready to go. Maybe put some bacon in it. Really? Yeah. That's a Canadian thing. No. I think the just missing out on a really good part of life, which is real cheesy show. Oh, man. I don't think I'm wrong on that. So you say. No, you're not catch up is what you put on eggs to get a little kid to try. Trust me, come on. Take stock in yourself on. Put it on everything. I know. All right. So you're catch-up seasoning on even though you say tower pets our patch? She can't go wrong. And that's what you put seasoning on. That's our snow caps. I've never you picture this Tate of you had Snowcap. Yes. Yes. They're pretty good. No, just chocolate. The the problem is I don't think I could eat a whole box. Like, I could raise nets on the popcorn very rich. But yeah, try the preview challenge. Trying to get it all done before. Then then you could really focus on the movie. All right. That's another week and captain Morgan's make believe riverboat casino. No matter how you live like a captain, captain Morgan reminds you to please drink and eat responsible without ketchup. Sees do it. If you want Chapin's autres all right now, the big three that's actor best actress best picture you nervous. I'm I don't want you to screw this up. Best actor. Yeah. Rami Malik campy. I like him. I've met him a bunch good guy. Who's going to do that aren't as four hundred? I did it once you do it every day. I know him I played golf on you to say anything terrible about Christian bell vices plus two fifty Bradley Cooper stars born fourteen to one big O Mortenson green book thirty three to one William Defoe at attorneys gate fifty to one I did not see William to foe. I'm gonna make a pick telling you, I did not. See him. He played plus five thousand I think you're in the quantity play Beethoven know who cut off his ear. Vincent Van Gogh van go. Yeah. So he's not gonna win a lot of some people. Do think he? Yeah. He's good in everything. He was good. What was in the Florida project? And oh, yeah. Yeah. That was nice but Romney Malik the favorite. You're going to tell me he shouldn't win. Okay. Well, who don't you know on this list that I know I thought Romney was Rami Aram -i Rummy Rummy. He was great. He was so good. And I love blaming rhapsody. I really actually really like that. Maybe his teeth were just too distracting. There were too much. I understand that. That was Freddie. Mercury sith. But that's what I was looking at the they they had they put on a hell of a performance. Do you think the teeth should be nominated for teeth best? Anyway, should probably be best. Supporting gotcha. If Regina king is nominated for her two minutes as she spent on the screen and those teeth deserve a little bit more respect. I think it's probably ooh, I'm going to say Christian bale is gonna win this. Well, fifty two that'd be a nice little Christian bell. What did he want? He won the won the Golden Globe, Rami one sag and BAFTA. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. It's kind of all over the place. I think this is kind of a week cross. Ashley Cooper was pretty awesome too. I didn't like that movie. But. I thought come on like the vocal Freyer French fry so good. All right. Let that one. Then I don't know. The songs isolated like if you're not watching the moving. The shea has has. I don't know. I feel like it. It's less and less appealing. When I hear I don't like the move. No. I saw your saying these days sang han-laney guy. No. It's not about seeing. You don't win. Ask us for lady Gaga. Learning a lot, I'm Christian bale. Okay, Christian bale? He hit. Right. Put on such a transformation is not looked like that at all. No had the voice down at everything down. I thought Vigo was good d- goes all the way through. Yeah. Bradley cooper. I don't know what it is. I like him. I like. Him because he's got nice head of hair. Saying you're the has better hair than me. You're kidding me up. Now. What your angle is over there? But I don't know. Here's the other thing when he was drunk was there a lot of difference in his character was re. He was re shit faced to when he was normal. I mean, he wasn't peeing his pants. I didn't think there was a ton of like. Yeah. I guess so, but I don't I don't think that that's Bradley Cooper like this was this was a person. No. I mean like that. That was not the actor Bradley Cooper that. I was seeing it was like this character, whoever he was playing. But I think that he definitely wanted to it and the vocal fry and and him singing. But I just think that so it's the teeth that are bothering me bothering me and Christian bale. I feel like you really realize how great an actor Christian bale is when he gets up and accepts in award. Like, he did I Golden Globes. And you hear what he actually sounds strike. Okay. And then you just he he puts on weight. He just totally transformed into these people the way that he was talking about the side of his mouth like everything I think he did such a great job. I just wish I liked that movie more. I I liked it fine but rhapsody, right? But I think if you said all right? We're going to have someone play, Freddie. Mercury iconic figure like he was pretty much nailed it. I really do. And you really was ninety percent there. I would be super happy to see him win. But so I think we keep this off our parley unless you want to just go you're not feeling strongly enough about Romney. Yeah. Your friends a little he is my friend. I do anything for them. And I mean that having met him once I didn't see him at your Halloween party. He was he was he was. He was dressed as Tate actually, providence. I think that's a stayaway. What do we like so far? We like we like Marschall Lee and Regina king. Okay. We're like those three they're all pretty big favorites. I'm gonna pass on the best actor, although I think that Romney mallet Oscar could throw us for a loop though. Yeah. How about how about what John David Washington kind of snubbed? Right. If you like if you like the director for that movie and. And. And finally interesting. No, no, no. He wasn't. He was in a black klansman. Right. My wrong this. Yeah. The lead in black klansman Dinsdale. Oh, yeah. He was great. He was really good. But he was a nominated for a Golden Globe or anything like that. I don't think he got. No. All right take. What do you think for this category? Bradley Cooper is actually going to surprise people and win this because he hasn't won anything else. You like that? Maybe no, I did not. But I get what you're saying. And I agree with the you know, he was playing somebody else. So I can see that and believe that so I can buy into it. But I would take Vigo Mortenson. I thought he should have won for captive and tastic I think two years ago, I see impossible getting that just because that was a polarizing movie so plus thirty three hundred maybe the only thing is if they haven't won any of the sag Golden Globes or Baptist. You can't that. Yeah. It's probably the same. We'll whose vote Oscars people in the academy and Golden Globes is different. It's the foreign press. Yeah. Then you get sagging baptism kind of more sagging BAFTA, I would assume most of the same people that are on the Adamy me. Right. Yeah. Right. All right to get marker best actress. Okay, I've been waiting literally all day to talk about this close. The wife minus five fifty Olivia Colman the favourite plus three fifty she's not the favourite. But she's in the village lady Gaga stars born tend to one elites Barillot Roma forty two one and Melissa McCarthy. I saw this last night can you ever? Forgive me. Fifty to one Glenn closest supposed to win. I think they feel like they Omar. I am. I am. I am still sick that she was snubbed in dangerous liaison. I'm sick to my. I don't even know how here I'm so sick. What do you think? I say that Glenn Close should be absolutely more of a favourite g was so good. We both watched that movie this past weekend. And I texted you as soon as I was finished watching it like, oh my goodness. You have to watch it right away. Her performance was so good. It. It made me feel things. What? Yeah. It made me feel things. Up on your popcorn acting. I am sure about that. Because I I didn't get the country to eat that she was so good. She has been in this business for quite some time. She is absolutely owed and Oscar and her performance was just outstanding. I loved Olivia Colman. I really really did. I think that she just turned herself into a very like ugly person in this movie, and I can I can see her winning too because she did win the Golden Globe. But in my heart. I won't Glenn Close to win. Because she just her performance was outstanding. It would kind of be devastating. If they didn't give it to a write these accolades she hasn't won. Well, she told with lady Gaga, I believe at the sag awards. Right. It was at at the sag. I think I have her winning the side of that. That was the critics choice they tied globe and sack. Pretty sure. She's she's got to win. Yeah. Yeah. Her her performance was seen you let you let you had that one senior said, but the scene when it's near the end of the movie when her husband, I guess, we've kind of already ruined a lot of people. Right. So you find out your slowly? But surely finding out the she has been writing all of these books that her husband is actually nominated for the Nobel prize award. He's saying that he has been the writer all along. So she just doesn't want him to thank her during his speech when he goes up and accepts the award. But he does it anyways. And the camera goes on her and everyone there's even a spotlight on her and everyone's turning around to clap for her and she just falls apart. Yeah. She just is embarrassed and mortified and angry and upset and and terrified all in one. And you can see everything you can see everything that she's going through. Now, what she didn't want him to mention her either give me credit or don't give me the I couldn't have done it without my wife speech, or do you think she just didn't want any? No, I think it's just like I've been doing this in the shadows. And nuts. That's what's easy. That's what makes it easier. So if you start going up there, and you're lying, and you're lying in front of me. And you're saying I couldn't do this without you. Then that's that's bull. Don't do that to me. Gotcha. I liked that a lot her eyes were bugging out. It was that was the moment like throughout the whole. Maybe like, she's great. She's going close. She's such a row, and I really enjoyed it. But that moment stood out. Right. Compared to anybody else on this list? I was like. Wow. And that. Yeah. You don't think about it? But but actually that wasn't nominated for best picture. So we could talk about like the ending that they kind of wrapped it up. The guy gets a hard act, by the way, he could get Jonathan Pryce not being nominated for best actor he had to be as bad as he was for Glenn Close to be good. Right. You didn't think he was good? I did think I meant bad as bad guy. Oh, bad guy, bad character. He I think he'd have phenomenal. I agree with you, the duo was absolutely. And also, you know where else you've seen him. Throw throw. What does he one of the he's the one that has always open white chest hair? And everything that I can. Yeah. The Sparrow pictures, Chester Tate. What do you like for this category? I like, maybe you'll eats a from Rome. I think she has a shot. Maybe like I said if Koran is they kind of go full on for him and Roma that maybe they win that one plus four thousand so that's on the look at. But I want to see what lady Gaga does when she doesn't win. You know, what I mean when they think she's going to throw a temper tantrum. I hope so she listen the next movie she's in I hope that she wins. She's just her. Has another. She's going to become a full on actress out. This is perfect for our really you. Don't think she's gonna know. You know, like, no, no, no shoot. She was good. I couldn't separate the musical performance from the rest of the movies. Like like, I said, I want stuck. I saw the movie at a bad time. That's when everybody loved it. So I'm like, all right. I'm going here. And then I'll sound smarter than he told me cried, I thought for sure. Joked, I cry Joe he's twenty minutes longer than needed to bear. Yeah. I it was just weird for me. You'll eat says like her. Yeah. She's just I mean that was like we talked about Florida project when they just it's just like oh come on. They just put a camera on this white trash family. And that's what it is. Yeah. But it just felt really real like, and I was reading about her when the movie first came out she had never acted before always wanted to. And I think that Alphonso like went to the depths of Mexico to try, and he shouldn't a bunch of people, and she just stood out so much her mom doesn't speak English. Like they had to go out and seek somebody that looked specifically like her, and I think that she did a great job for never acting before. And she has to deal with like the heaviest jeans. But sometimes I feel like that makes a really sometimes the more real people that you can get it makes the acting way more real sure, you think of all of these actors that have been in all of these movies and going to class or life and went to school. They've been taught how to like sing dance run act. Blah, blah, blah. She's not acting. She's just like Lynn. Yeah. Yeah. The actors they got for this arc Kelly. Documentaries macula. I can't believe some of the anguish can't say seen it. You lied to. You should see that. She maybe she didn't speak enough though. It's hard to keep track of that. I think that that was kind of her character. I just wonder if that's why she's not considered one of the top. I mean because see her really, yeah. Yeah. I can see that. But I think that that was her care like that was just character is perfect roles. Mccarthy. Great also down the list fifty to one. But she was awesome thought that was really good. I felt bad for her. I felt like it's I love seeing women in comedy switch over and do stuff. She must have been like an executive producer or something like that in this movie because I feel like women in comedy always have a hard time like Kristen wig. When was the last like real serious role show took on? So I always think it's much more. She's impactful than a woman can switch over from comedy into drama and then be nominated for an Oscar. That's major. Yes. She was all she's right up there. And yeah, okay Tate. What'd you say? Oh, I'm sorry. You said you Lisa. All right. But Glenn Close, man. I throw that in the parlay. I think if we go Glenn Close, Regina king. Mahershala. It'll all I'm gonna do the odds on this. Now, I think we're going to like this make a nice pizza pie for you. Just five fifty minus two eighty minus five at the guys are listening to re-live betting here to eighty and L minus fourteen hundred three well, we're at minus one thirty nine that's one thirty nine and went one hundred Panetta, you know, that from months and months of this. So we're getting this parlay down to almost even odds. And he's a lot you don't like that. Are we going to throw a ham Mary here in the end? But we might we might. All right. That's picture. Here we go. This is a big one. Okay. Roma minus three seventy five that's probably reading book for two one. Bury the lead the favourite fifteen one bohemian rhapsody twenty stars born twenty-five black Lanzmann thirty three Black Panther thirty three vice plus m v I don't know why that that moved so del. Okay. Yeah. Roy where we get a little spicy because in years past this is where they throw the wrench in things. Yeah. Shape of water one last year. There was the whole fee Lasko the year before noon light. Okay. We'd gone just I was there. And I bet it so I'm this is this is a thousand asshole story because I'm there. I bet it I'm celebrating and they're taking right under my nose moonlight. And what was what made it LA La Land? Right. So good. So you add lull in LA La Land. And I see producers running with everything else on. And I was like, oh, this doesn't seem right. Yeah. It was fifty feet away from the whole how weird was that sanding sitting in the crowd and actually Washington of suck that was in the back. So it on television. Only mentioned Jimmy get my cousins sitting with Matt Damon in the front row of thinking. The telecast is over. Yeah. Oh, I think I better get up there. This doesn't look good. Oh, gosh. Yes. Good. So that that's something to keep in mind is sometimes they can pull a willy nilly on you. So I would say I love the favorite. Yeah. That was maybe my favorite movie of the year. A try to talk you out of it. But why you got against it? But I feel uncomfortable at first of all the heavy British stuff that tough to lock me into that stuff. I loved it. I thought it was really funny. Also, you gotta think of like this may sound weird. But marketing plays a really big role in all of this. Because not a lot of people know what the favorite is. Right. There was a lot of people that I was like have you seen the favourite? And they're like, I've never even heard of that before like all these all these people voting. I'm sure wash the majority of it. But they got a million screeners to watch. I'm sure they're gonna. Skim over a few romo's talked about so much is on billboards all across LA. It would be Netflix is very first win at the Oscars, which is big. I'm going Roma. It's in black and white. I've seen this earlier Hollywood is pretentious like that. I'm going Rama. So Hollywood's a lot of things they are pretentious, by the way. There is colored film. You could use colored film. We why why knock yourself out with black and white, but okay, good for you. Get it you're beautiful. Now, a weird thing happened with this. Because before all these award shows star is born was a runaway favourite, and then the Golden Globes happened. Yeah. It was it was like it was like two to one odds when everything else was like fifteen twenty and twenty five I don't know what happened other than sag Golden Globes. Everyone else gave it to Roma. And I'm trying to think that I wasn't Roma yet another green book actually one for music how they split up. Oh, Amy wraps one Golden Globe. Yeah. So I don't know Hollywood. Like, maybe get thing to throw in our you think so to throw in our pilots wanting to one we're gonna screw that we have to bet that separately. If we bet it apart. We can't screw are. Nice parlay. All right. But Hollywood also likes to congratulate itself. And that's why a star is born might have a chance because it is celebrating entertainment and stuff like that. That's why I thought LaLa land was locked, but they chose to make another statement all was a beautiful movie. I was impressed with everything like. Tom detail. I feel like a star is born is more of like a critics choice movie or like an MTV movie awards. I don't see it as being like a beautiful piece of Arca. You know, I got you with her going on SNL like it's just it's a little too like Mileti does. All right. Maybe. Yes, you're right. It's more of a cable kind of not not. Yeah. It's not standing up against Roma. I mean, I wouldn't also it's been done fourteen times. Eighteen exactly as maybe more bohemian rhapsody. Here's what I'll say Tate. I know you didn't like this master Tate. But the last twenty minutes, I thought that was pretty brave because people fighting for this country, but showing the whole performance like that's something that they would cut. They would just so we are the champions for a minute and a half and be done with it. I thought it was pretty good and kept my interest all the way through for twenty minutes that ending tape. Why didn't you like that? No. I had no idea that you interrupt me Malka such good friends. Nothing to do with. I love that movie. I love, Freddie. Mercury. Beautifullest any like tell me. I don't care. I know just the I mean, it was just very on the nose. I mean, it is what I don't know bio-pic hosted there what part of the bars you wanted to come out. Exactly. So it's like I could have seen. You know, I've seen plenty like Jackie's knows all those same. I get it. Jackie. I love this. And I think the last twenty minutes if you if I were to tell you, hey, the last twenty minutes is just then playing the Live Aid concert. Yeah. You'd be like. Ooh, right. It's not gonna work, but I had goosebumps. I was waiting for that the only thing is some of the more obscure songs they played in the last twenty minutes, they go to crowd shots of everyone going nuts, which probably wouldn't happen for the songs that people didn't know. But I love, you know, back then. I will say I listen to Queen every single day all day long for the next two weeks. After I watched that. I drove you guys a little bit nuts. Not just that day. Ma- many days. What I want to say Black Panther great movie. Great too hard to shoot all that stuff. But that was in two thousand sixteen that this movie is so old like I love Ghostbusters. It had to be tight, right? One belt. Black Panther come out. And I think it was twenty fifteen. Time ago when I will say about Black Panther. I really liked it too. But that serves we found out sometime this past year that there was going to be a new category category for Oskar is and it was gonna be most popular movies that is perfect movie for that category. And like any action hero movie would belong in that category. I just I I really liked it. It was great for what it was. I'm just not a huge action here, whatever. So this might be one that take a chance on because I see what you're saying Roma. Maybe Hollywood says f you were not ready for Netflix film yet to take over. Maybe that's just it. I don't think that's what's going to happen. I think it's too beautiful. I think I'll phones Koran went to Netflix and was like I'm gonna I'm gonna and that's all the game. Let me tell you. If you add Rome ATar are already winning parlay. We are. Oh, we're at plus one eighteen that means you get twenty three dollars for your twenty banana. I like that. All right. I'll take that dick. We're going to do that. I'll give you twenty bucks Tate. What's your what's your what's your best picture? I thought it was going to be green book at the that. That would be the one that would upset the most people, obviously, plus four hundred was something I like, but the fact that you know, he's not dominated for best director kind of knocks him off that list. So I think it's going to be Romo Courant what comes into play for best picture. Are you thinking about director thinking about the actors more the story or is everything just equal? What stands out to you more? When it comes to best picture. I think it's well first of all Ewing experience when the director wins a lot of times. Best picture follows right there. Yeah. That's what I'll ask you though, because best picture one for. Yeah. But I like I like I like these movies to have endings a hate the crappy the bailout endings, I do I do think a lot of these did have good endings. Yeah. As far as like, a in general, I think. It's a weaker crop. But they all did and nicely. I thought a black black klansman was a little weird had a couple of weird scene. It was it was about I feel like thirty minutes to own. Yeah. And when I went back to look, I researched it because I was just like is this exactly what happened because then I'll forgive you for being too long. But it wasn't. They went off and created their own story a little bit. So then I was just like I'm out David Duke posing for a picture forget about him putting his arm around them at the end. He's just not posing for that picture of one of the worst races of all time is that's oh, yeah. I'll take a picture with a cop who I don't want guarding me right now. The other thing is when they had the other racists cop, how they hot the that was where the where wearing a wire say it again that. Yeah. Get out of there. You know, he's been racist. Everyone's face the whole deal about that for best picture though. Quick reminder last year shape of water one and Gary del Toro won best director. Did he not he did? So we might have a little double Alfonzo here. Double double double. Director best picture for Roma. I gotcha. Then that's too for Netflix. Right. I think that's what's going to happen Tate. What's your best? You're gonna make a parley here or no. What on the whole thing? Yeah. I mean, I would love to get on year. One thirty nine to one hundred partly I think it's up to plus one eighteen oh, yes. I think that's perfect. I'm down. I'm done to get in on all that. But I will say green book scares me for best picture. I think it could add scores you that might be a separate plus for one hundred if you believe in green both you really believe there's always one upset. So it's either going to be the only ones that could be Roma for director Herschel was winning for sure could be Regina king because she's not that big a favorite. I just don't think anybody else really stood out in that list. She'll win. It's a little bit of a week for best. Supporting there's gonna be an upset. You think it's it could be Christian bale like that's the one. Yeah. All right. I think he he will win. And bet bet the house when Glenn Close. Yeah. My god. Let's do it five fifty to one hundred how many five fifty is. Do you have get paid a lot of money? What you get paid. Do you have an ice nice agent? Our agents met he out doing fine. Wow. All right. So we did it all six we'll I'll put that parlay up on Twitter. Something's everyone can get in on it. But we're gonna make money magin. We make money off of I can make money off of football that here. We are. Yeah. How how much do you need to make back at the Oscars eve, LA many, thousands boy Jay at least twenty seven. Well, it's our college basketball pick that we could parlay with Roma for the title. You think? Yeah. I think just take do at this point. Really? Oh, man. That's. That's a demand by feed Carolina van right there. Duquette tate. You would you would be a static if they came out one in one against them. Right. I think that's what's going to happen. I think it'd be home at home. Yes. San really sad. I am Rachel. What are you have to plug your delight? Thank you for coming on. I don't really think I have anything. I do the show of you. And I go home. I hang on my dog. That's it. Yeah. That's pretty good. Yeah. You're doing improv where can people see this? I'm going to start performing at a show called TMI Hollywood every Sunday. It's at the Hudson theatre federally fun. You can get tickets online Hollywood dot com, and these are Sunday shows Sunday shows Bayer tape we're gonna have to go into one. Let's do it. I'm in. We'll allow us to throw ketchup seasoning stage into my mouth. Yeah. That could be one of your characters at least mounts there you go. All right. Rachel tate. Thank you so much. This has been a lot of fun. We're going to bet this pollen. That'll do it for another episode of against all odds. Lock it in Monday through Friday, Fox Sports one four thirty five thirty watch Jimmy Kimmel live eleven thirty five tonight, and every weeknight on ABC, that's that for master Tate. Frazier and Rachel Veneta. I'm Sal saying so long and happy handicapping.

Oscars Golden Globes Chester Tate Regina king captain Morgan director Barillot Roma Canada Freddie Oscar Glenn Close Jimmy Rachel Adam McKay Bradley Cooper lady Gaga Emma stone Amy Adams
College Football Week 3 Betting Picks: Alabama at Florida, Auburn at Penn State, Cincy at Indiana

Bet The Board

1:16:52 hr | Last week

College Football Week 3 Betting Picks: Alabama at Florida, Auburn at Penn State, Cincy at Indiana

"Along that thou board with bet. Bet you twenty bucks i get. You can't look for the end of the year. Only fifteen grand. How they pay debts men his manny. It's the board podcast. Originally the end. Right back where i started. I could still pick winners. Can still make money for all kinds of people back home and why mess up a good thing airs pain insider and toddler. Welcome in to the the board podcast powered by fan duel. Sportsbook college football week. Three of the national landscape begins to take shape in the wake of some seismic upsets last weekend. I'm your host todd. Furman joined as always by my steam colleague coast the one the only pain insider but before we get to pain. This is the perfect time to remind you to go to fan. Duel dot com slash. The board sign up for all sorts of the lucrative new user bonuses in states where it applies whether it's a thousand dollar free bet whether it's a twenty percent free royal fan duel has a myriad of ways to get your bankroll into the business of making money. This fall go there. Use the promo code at the board and take full advantage pain. I wanted to what you thought of what you saw unfold last saturday in college football. And if you want we can let you sidestep the debacle at the doak. There doesn't need to sidestep but that was a terrible loss and falls on the coaching staff. Adam fuller has not been good for a season plus now and my feeling is if him and norval weren't close and there is a little more resources that's a fireable events and mike norville went into that presser after and claimed that they were in a defense that they were not it and kind of covering fuller so that was interesting. They're not to game. That's on mark norville as well. I mean my understanding was early in the week. Practice was absolute dog crap. You had the the florida guys who you know. Four stars thinking that you know competed with notre dame and that this was going to be an easy one and i think that mindset was really on the coaches as well i mean what is mike norville doing. I understand that mackenzie milton might give you the higher floor. I'm sorry the higher ceiling and he lets recruits. See that this is the offense that you wanna run. That isn't just A ground and pound game with your quarterback running but those are games. You have to get out there and win. You can't lose that game. You can't you gotta put jordan travis in there make a low variance game. Run the football when by seventeen and get out of dodge so that was not very good from florida state and its coaching staff. Yeah this oregon. Oh god ohio state. Yeah exactly. I mean i you know i. I think that was a really game effort. I mean we saw tim to ruder. Give shroud some issues early in that game crystal ball on the offensive line enforced there. Will the question marks. We had about ohio states. Defense was more in the secondary but they got bullied upfront in the trenches. And so you know give give credit to some of the guys that were projecting ohio states defense outside the top twenty five. At the beginning of the season. They were bang on accurate. Stroud still making some mistakes for guys starting his second game but i thought they were stretches there were he looked fantastic. Three receivers went over one hundred yards receiving. But he's still throwing the ball a little bit high. Still making some young quarterback mistakes but give all the credit in the world oregon. There you go on the road. And i think we discussed this ri- you lost two days of prep and rest another day traveling. You're all world defensive. Lineman is out. You're down to linebackers. You did it. Short handed and so organ deserves all the credit in the world for them. Honestly and i'll eat a little bit of. I've been critical of mario cristobal and his ability to get his team focused and ready to go each and every week during the season. I can't take shots anything. He's done recruiting wise to build up that talent level oregon and employer brand of football. That you talked about you. Just don't see on the west coast going out there and trying to be hard nosed play with that physical swagger of sorts that we saw from david show and stanford who's at the peak. Didn't think that kind of effort was in the cards. So i have to give oregon a ton of credit thought ohio. State's offense kind of right. The ship is you kind of mentioned there defensively. We knew the secondary was a problem. Did not think that oregon was going to be able to run the football for seven yards pop. So some interesting games there. They'll shake up. The landscape obviously did want to touch on notre dame but we'll break them down for their upcoming matchup against purdue and you know honestly may make the most sense for us to get right into things is we have a lot of land to cover and we can do is so right in your backyard payne with a twelve o'clock eastern kickoff where the suddenly spry spartans come in to hardrock stadium. It's miami a six and a half point home favourite in the heat of the south florida day. Total in this game sits at fifty six and a half at fan sports book and pain when you look at mel tucker is bunch. Clearly the offense has been a welcome breath of fresh air and wins over north western. And of course last weekend's fcs member youngstown state. But i think when you try and dive in this game the biggest match up to try and identify how things are going to go. We'll be that michigan state offensive line. Paving the way for kenneth walker against the miami defensive line that hey look we'll throughout the alabama game a lot of teams are gonna make Alabama's gonna make a lot of teams look bad. But what do we expect from the canes upfront against michigan state. Road graders so let's let the listeners. Know what the heck we're doing this week. We are going to change some things up. Todd posted a poll on what was the fifth game. You would like to hear us breakdown. We're gonna discuss that game. Obviously but we wanted to talk about more games. So what we're going to do is six games today. The first four are going to be like one key factor. The biggest thing that we think plays a role in the outcome of the game. And then we'll have deep dives for penn state auburn and alabama florida. So that's what we're doing here. I think this is probably the right way to approach. Is people want more games and so this felt like a week where there is a lot of those ones kind of on the cost of making the cut or not and so i think we said. Hey let's kind of discuss a couple of these. This is interesting. When you look at michigan and miami you'd dig into you know things past the power number and some things that stand out that are impactful but trying to always gauge. The the largest factor can be a little bit difficult. And i think you hit this perfectly one of the factors. Certainly the heat of miami have you. Have you seen the the weather projected. It's not good if you're training in. Northern climates now. I know michigan's not exactly cool during the summer. But it ain't south florida heat in the middle of september. It's a noon kickoff. Eighty eight degrees seventy percent humidity which means it's like over a hundred so i think michigan state's depth is going to be test. Get dumb question pain. What do we think miami would be dumb enough to come out and sport. They're all black jerseys. Try and get the swag back in the heat of the day or couldn't released assume that the programme is going to come out and all whites and force michigan state to wear their kelly greens and let the heat beat. Wear down as the day goes on. You would hope. But i gotta tell you. I do not spend my weeks figuring out the uniform choice of of the miami. Maybe i should handicapping. Intangible i'm not aware of that so the heat is obviously going to be a factor. I think the speed you mentioned mel tucker you know. He has a dc in scottie. Hazelton and they've fully transitioned to afford to five this off season because he thought after like self scouting last year's team which had still dantonio fingerprints on that the four three was just really slow so you had a change of formation on paper which makes you believe sparty can play faster but is it enough to to handle miami's athletes in the oh. This isn't north westerner youngstown. Those are two questions that are pretty big. But i came away thinking that the biggest factors obviously michigan state's offensive line against india's defensive front and last season it was an absolute cluster. F upfront for sparty mean. They were projecting to have like a hundred and twenty-five starts back but by the time. Injuries and opt-outs defections and guys just flat out quitting one starter actually was back michigan state offensive line finished one hundred twenty four in line yards one hundred twenty four fourth and stuff right allowed one hundred eighteenth in power. Success rate that two rushing touchdowns all season. None of them came from running back. So that's how bad michigan state's offensive line was but you have a new year a better understanding of the system. You've had some transfers come in. There's been a buy into the coaching staff. And you've actually had normal off season workout programs where guys can get into the weight room and so suddenly have eight guys with starting experience. And i think because of that sparky's align has been damn good so far even if northwestern's downtown dot right like the one thing regardless of talent. It's it's kind of tough to bully. Pat's gerald defense and smarter put up three hundred and twenty five rushing yards most since two thousand fourteen. They went out last week as they should and dominated youngstown believe. Pf gave sparty offensive line. The second best overall blocking grade of the week. But what is interesting here is to me northwestern. Can you know what they've done so far is they've handled this situation you know. They've been successful on. Fifty seven percent of rushing plays. That's fourteen percent above the national average. They nine point six yards per rush with eight explosives against a pats. Gerald defense like that to me is pretty good so far but there's still some issues with allowing some havoc in some negative place. You know northwestern stuff. Twenty three percent of runs out. Or behind the line of scrimmage if you extrapolate that out for a full season put michigan. State's offense wind outside the top one hundred again in that category and many. That's kind of his philosophy on defense right like you guys to play the other side of the line of scrimmage he's gonna blitz he's gonna shoot gaps you know it's it's basically get up field by any means necessary even in a down year last year. Miami finish top ten in both havoc tackles for loss. So you know. We know the offensive line for spartans improved. I think we're gonna find out. How much will find out if the big guys up front. Wear down in the heat. Maybe there's a rotation. I know there's been a discussion of going with the rotation of linemen this week to combat that heat but if sparty can run the ball with walker and simmons and it makes peyton thorns life. I think you know substantially easier here and if there is improvement up i think the hang within this number. But the number to me says michigan. State's decide here. And i know it opened eight some places. A seven flashed yesterday. Did not last this morning to really really interesting game here. But i think of michigan state's able to run the ball. They're going to stay within this man. I was gonna say you talk about the number. Now was actually where i wanted to go before we close the book on this game. This'll be more the third straight week that we've seen money coming against miami in a game. We want against alabama. They opened as low as two touchdowns that number we know balloon dot control in. Miami was never in the game last week We saw miami opened his a nine and a half point favorites. Appalachian state number actually closed a jew. Seven at some of the sharper shops. And i don't think miami ever had a chance against the mountaineers to run away and hide so this may be as much skepticism about what manny diaz is putting on the field week in week out as it is buying into michigan state's hot start with dominant performances against semi inferior under on the win. Total at nine and a half to begin this season on miami as well so this is not a team that people in the know and that influence a market are as high on and it. It just always seems the last few years that thurs just this difference between how pros feel the miami hurricanes program is versus. You know. I guess the national media right. Everyone's miami to be back. Everyone wants them in the limelight. Thirteen at least across the country that has a decent following even though the local fan base isn't all that loyal they do have a national brand. And so just seems like we're kind of pushing this forward but many years is not a great coach. Good defensive mind. Let's see ultimately right. You went out played bamut off apps state-dominated dominated the game you know in the trenches which was a little nerve racking to see and certainly miami was able to accrue some pressure on alabama. But the one thing that we said was coming into the alabama gillem. The defense events were a little bit of an issue in camp having trouble setting the edge the depth. That defense event is a little bit of a problem. The linebacker core is a little bit of a problem. We're moving these down there for speed. There's some injuries at linebacker. So this will be interesting of sparty can enforce their will in the trenches on the offensive side and they're able to run the ball and be multidimensional with thorn throwing the football. This game gets real interesting. Would have been nice to steal outright win last week from app state and let me tell you that much as far as the win totals concern but alas we move on and from a win. Total perspective rooting for michigan state. To pull off the outright upset. All right from south. Florida into another college football hotbed in norman. Oklahoma where it's the sooners welcoming in historic rival nebraska. You're looking at oklahoma. A twenty two point favorite at fan duel sportsbook total in this game sits at sixty two these two proud programs or at least one proud program one trying to resurrect its legacy played. Eighty six times between nineteen twelve and twenty ten. We know what will be the fifty year anniversary of the game of the century. Oklahoma with a marginal seven game lead in this particular series but clearly when you look at this nebraska team lost the season opener against illinois bounced back against fordham and buffalo. So we've seen their defense at least rise to the occasion. Meanwhile oklahoma in the wake of almost blowing the game against tulane they rebounded with a seventy six nothing thumping of western carolina last week for sooner fans. Maybe the most promising part of that game is how good caleb williams looked a lot of the people. I talked around that program really believe he's got more buttoned up than spencer rattler and arguably has a higher ceiling which is scary to think about the pain when you look at this oklahoma offense. It's no surprise under lincoln riley leadership that this team wants to chuck it around the yard and what we've seen through. Two games is from an offensive success rate. They're doing it extremely well through the air potentially putting nebraska's defense on notice and we'll see what the blackshirts can bring to the table. Yeah that that's that's the big question. Now obviously adrian. Martinez has to play. Well you know these are the two big step up in competition for him from the last two weeks and he needs to protect the football and not fumble this game away like he's been prone to do and scott. Frost needs devise a game plan with some variants where he's able to match scores if needed and nebraska's needs to be up on special teams too. I mean that's what's so weird about this team you know you're looking through the last three games. They've had a punt return blunder in each of them. The field goal kickers been trainwreck. Thirty three for thirty five last season on all kicks he comes back. He's missed three or five field goals to of twelve already. This season so connor cope needs to get it together. Husker's to clean up some things in the penalty department nine last week. It took twenty points off the board so they have to do the little things. Well here to not get boat race but you you lined up perfectly with the biggest factor and its if nebraska's going to cover the twenty two and a half and what i'm actually looking forward to seeing is spencer rattlers receiver group. You have mims. And you have hazelwood against nebraska's secondary. Lots of hype. Obviously gunman in the season for for rattler. Mims and hazelwood were thrown out the western carolina. Data i don't care what you do against the two hundred and thirty second best team in the country and so far the only data point that matters is against two lane and rattlers poor three turnover. Worthy throws eighty-three passer rating force balls into coverage. Didn't play within the scheme of the offense. Something we talked about last year with how effective he was when he got the ball out. Two and a half seconds or less. I is when he tried to improvise. There's also a lot of hype this off season about nebraska's defense right and i think they have improved but how much the secondary's returning three super seniors. You have also a second team all big ten corner in cam taylor brett. Who turned down the nfl to return to school. But the only power five often nebraska's defense faced in illinois and we saw ardor civic hausky. Who wasn't even supposed to play in this game. Dropback seventeen times in turn out of ninety. Three percent adjusts already. Look good man thirty nine party. Look good. Filling in for brandon peterson the season opener touchdowns. Yeah i mean i. Where did that come from. So obviously you know you play fordham in buffalo back to back weeks. It makes nebraska coverage unit. Looked great top fifteen in the country but the only power five offense nebraska's face deal annoy. They put a positive zero point. One six epa per pass. So i think that is the match up to watch. And i think it determines who covers. I don't think nebraska a chance to pull off the upset here. But you have nebraska's veterans in the secondary against spencer rattler through the air. And i think that's that's interesting to look at in this match. I think ultimately that's what's going to determine the gover- if you can kind of limit those explosives and that's why all those guys came back that'll be the key to covering this game but the number right now. Twenty two and a half not a ton of movement. At this point and show it would indicate that nebraska's defense might be able to limit the explosives and keep some things in front yeah. This was a game during the summer months that you saw nebraska catching eighteen. So you've seen the market adjust a little bit in the wake of nebraska's loss against illinois through that key number of twenty one but as you brought up fascinating to see no movement on the marquis game big noon kickoff. Eleven o'clock central last thing on this game pain. And i know you and i are both in critical spencer rather as has a lot of the oklahoma fan base. What do you need to see from him before. You'll fully buy in in terms of him taking that next step and being a quarterback that a lot of people have talked about as being lincoln riley next great potential first rounder in the national football league. He's still young. You just wanna see a little bit more consistency. You want to and i don't. I don't know him personally but you know when you kind of see his mannerisms in his actions and he was on television. Show in high school. And you're like man know kind of faulk but you're hoping that the maturity stuff picks up you to see him walk into the game and it's just it's just not him right. I mean cave on tiptoes on the sidelines wearing like twelve hundred dollar shades. It just kind of is what it is at this point in college football but he rolls into the stadium. It's just like you know teammates around him. When you're making that kind of money on the nfl stuff it's like. Are you taking care of the rest of the guys around you which is going to be needed. It doesn't necessarily need to be you know cash handouts but like when you're going out to eat when you're going out to the bar like are you picking these things up and if you're not. What is that mean for the cohesion in that locker. And so that's something as sports bettors where information's going to play a larger role moving forward with the current setup of college football but he just needs to be more consistent on the field needs to play within the offense a little bit more limit. The mistakes i mean against tulane again. You see them come out. And he's trying to throw the ball in drip coverage things. He's dan marino like balls and they're like you know just play within the system. I think you'll be fine here. Maybe get a little bit of help from the ground game. But i just i. I think it's upstairs for him. That's that's the biggest hurdle that he needs to cross the seat all the time with some of these kids at have all the physical tools in the world. If you don't have it between the years and you can't display some of that maturity it's always gonna hold you back and we'll see if rather can continue to make those strides and become the face of oklahoma football. He's going to need to be if they're going to win the big twelve and have a chance to at least compete for a national championship. Something that's eluded them. Since lincoln riley took over off a game on paper that doesn't appear to be that competitive to one of the more fascinating. Matchups in bloomington indiana on saturday pain. Cincinnati goes on the road to take on the hoosiers. This game scheduled way back in two thousand fourteen long before. Luke fickle was the head coach of cincinnati. More on that. In a second. And before tom allen took over in any capacity at indiana. You're looking at the bearcats now. A four point road favorite sports book. This total is down a touch from the open to fifty the first question. I have to ask you. We know luke. Fickle is one of the more buttoned up guys. But it's a logical connection to make knowing that mike bone the athletic director was also the same guy. That hired fickle as head coach cincinnati. How easy or difficult is it for coaches and players to block out. Some of the distractions that are inevitably swirling around the program now. Well those distractions just happened this week. I don't know what. Luke fickle is going to do to address the team as he just going to avoid it. Is he going to sit. Everyone down. I don't i don't know that approach but i absolutely love his quote and the craft imagine. I don't talk. I barely talk to my own family. During the season that i adhere to myself luke and either football season or one of the kindred spirits yes and so i mean i just i. I don't know how he's handling the situation. Diddy address it immediately as soon as the firing happened in that in that players meeting. Did you say. I'm not going anywhere or is he not disgusted at all. Now i think the game at hand here is obviously one of the two very important ones for cincinnati as a g. five team. You need to win these games to be even in consideration for the playoff so these are the games they've had circled from the offseason. So you would think the focus is there. Yeah you're exactly right. I mean this trip to indiana and then a trip to south. Bend in a couple of weeks if you're able to win those two games. Suddenly the biggest landmine remaining in front of you appears to be ucf in the latter portion of the schedule but to get to that point obviously have to take care business first and foremost and i think if you're cincinnati and you're going into this game maybe i don't wanna see you're more confident now but you're probably not as concerned as you were about. Michael panics coming into the season when you look at pennock so far this year guys been sacked three times for a loss of twenty. Two yards hasn't really shown the mobility. We've grown accustomed to last week. Yes you can be blinded by the dominant. Indiana perused against idaho but panics. Didn't throw the ball downfield at all. He was just eleven of sixteen for sixty eight yards. I mean you. And i have been extremely critical of indiana even last year and we loved him that this team showed very little balance. It was all throwing the football down field because you didn't have much of a ground game to lean on now one thing when you look at michael panics. He's suffered season ending injuries. A couple of times the third game of the season in two thousand nineteen threw for two hundred eighty six yards and three touchdowns in against michigan state. Last year against michigan came back and was dynamic in two thousand twenty so you wonder if he now he's he has the confidence in his body to go out there and perform but this is no small feat pain going up and attacking a cincinnati defense dusting off the cobwebs and getting inform is certainly needed when you've spent the entire offseason focusing on the rehab and not necessarily the chemistry with the players around you and so game three. We may see an uptick here now. The market is saying otherwise and for listeners. When we broke down. I will last week. We actually grazed over indiana in their problems in the process. And so that is the key factor for this game and it's indiana's offensive line. It has been a problem for a while. And it's not just a leak right like there's a whole there and it's it's this is the grand canyon at this point and it's easy to say like You know to to game sample. But the unit wasn't good last year either in the problem looks even worse this season. I was defensive line. Obviously i think is better than we thought it would be coming into the season. That was kind of the question. Mark is what would. I was defensive. Line be we knew. The secondary was elite. We knew the linebackers were great. It was like how are we replacing guys up front. Hot is were able to pressure. Indiana nearly forty percent of dropbox panics at a one point seven passer rating. When pressured i was pressure was so constant that they only had two blitz twenty one percent of snaps all last week leading up to the idaho game dom allen was like saying how much time indiana's o. Line spent in the film room and how they had a much better week of practice in how he thought in the iowa game. They didn't actually have issues with assignments. They were just getting beat. That kind of tells me for buttoned up getting beat talented enough. And so that makes me a little nervous and so you know all week. The focus was on the o. Line and then. Idaho comes town. Ensure as you alluded to like indiana wins in a blowout. But idaho got pressure on more than thirty nine percent of dropbox last week. Panics looked uncomfortable as you alluded to not at times but pretty much throughout he improved under pressure but overall four point three yards and attempt against idaho and what i am seeing with. Panics is a guy that's either throwing short to get the ball out quick. He's anticipating pressure. That sometimes isn't quite there you know doesn't to get hit on the knee doesn't wanna face contact it spending months that's it. He's eight months removed from acl surgery. And that's you know the same knees had surge around twice or he throws the ball deep quickly to get rid of it. The receivers are only halfway through the routes. It's basically a different kind of throw it now. You get cincinnati this week and their strength is the defensive line and threw three weeks. Bff has them graded the number one d. line and pressure maija sanders is coming off an eleven sacks season. The latest mocks have him going in round one in april. Cincinnati rotates six guys along the d. Line fickle loves that unit's upside and depth. You have monique van. Curtis brooks marcus brown. John briggs jabari tailor. Those are the other five guys along the d. line. All of those guys have been constant with their pressure. And i think the interesting part is to this. There has been some whispers and some rumors. That fickle defenses are fantastic because they're all pickles and walmart has freeman has done a great job recruiting any brought some buzz to notre dame the concepts and the overall understanding of the vibe of the game margaret remains been horrific for notre dame the first two weeks and so. You are starting to see that this. This probably is fickle. And there's not going to be a massive drop off defensively without marcus freeman. And and here's the added kicker to this game. Indiana hasn't been able to run the ball for god knows how long right. So if you don't have to worry about the run and right now hoosiers. One hundred eighteenth in rushing success rate last season they put up a negative point two nine. Epa for rush against iowa. Cincinnati already has the advantage upfront. But if they can just pin the rear back right been their ears back and not have to worry about run or the threat of run panics. Probably going to be under pressure. Good bit here. It's something that we're definitely going to have to watch because indiana. There's no doubt need to show some level of balance. No realizing that panics. Isn't that dual threat quarterback that we've grown accustomed to when he's completely healthy and out there and i think when you look at cincinnati you may not have thought much of their scheduled opponents a forty two seven win over. Murray state really doesn't open your eyes. But suddenly when miami of ohio has plenty of success moving the football against the minnesota golden gophers in their second game a team. That's cincinnati lead thirty five. Nothing at the half. You begin to connect the dots and okay. Maybe that wasn't miami of ohio being down it was cincinnati being that good defensively and this'll be a higher level of physicality than indiana seen. Obviously since the iowa game but maybe a defense even better than what the hawkeyes. Bring week in week out. It's very possible. I mean that defensive front is is absolutely loaded. And it's guys that have bought in. Its guys with talent guys that fit the scheme and they rotate. Six of this is really even last year. Is you kind of mentioned this win. Win indiana was the surprise teams. Something we packed before the year we went through the schedule we would look at opponents and we say the biggest question mark on this entire team is the offensive line. They just don't have balance. And i think that's what ultimately kept them from taking even another step and being an elite team and i don't see improvement there from from that part of the team right the offensive line the ground game. It's basically panics. Back their passing the ball. Not one hundred percent doesn't have the ability to use his legs as much she had previously. And it's just a bunch of short passes. And i think when you have a defense like cincinnati and a coach like fickle. Who's going to identify this scheme. This is the very reason we have seen this game. Come off the key number and we're now at the four already. let's stay. let's stay in the same state easy for me to say as we head from bloomington up to south bend. Where it's the notre dame fighting irish welcoming any another in state program and the purdue boilermakers notre dame pain a seven and a half point favorite at fan duel sportsbook this total fifty eight and a half pretty much painted across the board purdue makes their first trip to south bend since september of two thousand twelve. I'm going to butcher the name of the trophy. The chalet. I believe rivalry renewed. Purdue is not beating a top ten team on the road since beating. Number two notre dame thirty one twenty at notre dame stadium on september twenty eighth pain in one thousand nine hundred seventy four. The last win over an eight people. Top twenty five team on the road for you ask wisconsin. What was your favorite baby food than favorite. I was not even a twinkle in my parents is nine thousand. Nine hundred seventy four. I wouldn't grace this finer until eight years later in one thousand nine hundred eighty two wise s but the last. I do remember kind of what i was doing. Back in two thousand and three the last time purdue had a road win over an ap top twenty five team was probably ending up in drunken and gutter somewhere middletown connecticut trying to re live my glory when you look at this. People don't know you're wild. I don't think they did. They see buttoned up and corporate guy on tv in a suit and they have no idea. I am much more up now. I'm glad some of my fraternity hazing pictures for from back in the day. Haven't been widely circulated. I do say. And i'll tell anybody that'll listen if some of the social media platforms were around whether it was twitter whether instagram or facebook had the same level of popularity and pictures were surfaced. There's a good chance. I probably wouldn't have been able to be hired by any major outfit and bet the board podcast which we own and operate would be the only bastion of hope that would have had for professional success. A good passion of hope. I must say but i agree with your sentiments. You're definitely there's some skeletons and there's nothing wrong with passing out in the gutter after dollar beer night or nearly getting pushed off the loading dock in oklahoma city or things along those lines in a shopping cart. I was trying to recreate yeah. It's a different story for different. We don't need to go there. What the hell were you doing in a lotta mean. Bars closed down. At one o'clock you're trying to create back trying to buy a six or twelve pack of beer knowing that the package stores are shut down. So you gotta go down to the loading dock to meet the bartender for a little cash transaction before you go back to hotel gotcha. So true you think outside apologies. I took off delay outside the box you got to be entrepreneurial sometimes my friend notre dame when you look at the fighting irish yes. They've started the season with two victories. Had outlast florida state and overtime labor day weekend and how to outlast toledo despite their best efforts to spit the bit there last weekend. Clearly notre dame has some issues and one of their biggest issue. You kind of hinted at marcus freeman coming in his defensive coordinator. They've already given up more big plays on the back end and they did the entire last year with clark lee but this offensive line long. Been the trademark. Strength of a brian. Kelly coach team is anything but and pain. I realized just watching it from the eye test. There were problems on the offensive line. I didn't realize how bad it actually was. Until i dug into some of the metrics in dug into this game for a bit and we kind of had this approach again for some of these games who wanna cover more more territory. There was a couple items in this game that could have been the key factor and after stressing about it for about thirty minutes. I said what the hell my doing here. So i shot brad taxed. His favorite team is obviously notre dame. He's close to the rim he. One hundred percent knows which this team in either way. I didn't mention it before. Impressive job from our man. Brad powers folks can check out on our bet. The board pregame show available on youtube brad for his first hit on this show. Where's the hat this. Play like a champion. In the wake of notre dame outlasting florida state. It was the most subtle troll job notch if it was intentional but i love the pettiness of all of it. And that's why it's important to have final. That didn't make a that. Didn't make the show. It was just audio for though. I wake so so when i shop powers note. He said purdue's defensive line against notre dame's offensive line is the biggest factor in this game. Did mention a couple. Other things as i as i alluded to. But that was what stood out the most and we knew notre dame's line was extremely talented. But it was super young and inexperienced. Lost four starters along that line. They lost the depth guy and dylan gibbons although they did win the cane madden sweepstakes but he is ben wildly disappointing in both run and pass blocking. But you're replacing force ours that are hunt. nfl rosters. That is difficult to do no matter how well you recruit and we've been banging that drum for awhile now. Notre dame's down to the third string left. Tackle for this purdue game the question becomes is if they're gonna move their best in jerry patterson who plays centre out to left tackle the protect cones blindside and then shift zeke corral from guard to center which is arguably his more natural position. Let's see if there are some changes upfront dame's o. Line has not really created much push in the ground game. The young guys do look a little weak which is to be expected. Notre dame has a negative point three seven. Epa per against florida state as a team kyran williams. Who is they're belco back. A workhorse had a twelve percent rushing success rate on first down runs against toledo and twenty five percent overall for the game when toledo played with a six man box. Notre dame averaged one point seven carrying an eleven percent. That's very good. That's not getting it done against six-man boxes no notre dame allowed some pressure against toledo and get toledo's got a very good defensive front for mac standards absolutely let's not sugarcoat that cone and buckner were basically under duress the entire game right thirty four percent of dropbox. They were pressured. May not seem you know concerning. But tommy is whether it's smartly calling more early down passes a realizing that he's not able to run as much. He's been at least decent in that fifty eight percent early down pass rate through two games. That's a fifteen percent increase year over year. Figure out if he's gotten a little bit smarter as a play. Caller fees basically forced to do that because they're not able to run as well But thirty four percent pressure. It against the max school regardless of how good they are. That can't happen coming into the season when you look at the purdue defensive front that was going to be the best part of their defense the boiler secondary. We did project for a little improvement but the d. line is the best produce had since. Proms ben there. George carlin this i mean. He's a bona fide. Start hi four star kid. Top sixty could have went to virtually any big ten school he wanted. He's a disruptor right eleven pressures in two games. He's playing great against the run. Purdue likes to get some pressures from its linebacker. So we've seen jalen alexander and jalen. Graham help in that area purdue right now twentieth and run. Stop grade so you know. Obviously things can change week to week. Anything can happen in a sixty minute sample but on paper. This isn't a game where notre dame's finding balance enabled the run. It's going to be on jack cohn throwing you know after dislocated middle finger on the final drive. The toledo game against improved produce secondary and. That was the one thing that i went back and watched against oregon state with organising. Bill moved the ball a little bit. Sure they they put twenty one on the board but any produce secondary was decent allowed a negative point two seven. Epa per pass. I thought that was showing out pretty well. So if your front four in your front seven can stop the run. Enforce jack cohn who's going to be less than one hundred percent here to throw the football into an improved secondary. I think we've seen why this number opened a little short. And so when you look at the number at seven and a half eight certainly says that produced the decide here in these are always the interesting games from either we find out that notre dame's just not any and this number looks massive notre dame kind of figure some things out the shifts in parts along the offensive line. And you're buying notre dame kind of at the floor of their market and those are always tough games for mitigate. Well i'll tell you one thing if notre dame can't figure it out this week against purdue defensive front and ain't gonna get much easier for the irish because you look at their upcoming schedule they're gonna get hit in the mouth by wisconsin on the defensive side and they're going to get hit in the mouth by the cincinnati bearcats. So i think this is going to be a tremendous litmus test to see if notre dame is trending the right direction you highlighted a lot of moving pieces as far as their offensive line. Is concerned pain. I was blown away by the amount of notre dame beat writers and such that are already calling for a benching of jack. Own in favor of tyler. Buckner giving given the mobility he brings the table and maybe a higher ceiling even if he doesn't have that same veteran presence in the huddle That cone does a consummate that. I think we're gonna see that moving forward a little bit. I think we're gonna see more tyler buckner kind of implemented into the system. He does provide a little bit more mobility. he obviously has a ton more upside. And he's hopefully. The future of notre dame football under center can be fascinating to watch. We'll get a better gauge. And exactly where notre dame is can they correct their problems or where these issues continue to linger before their schedule. Get significantly more difficult speaking of more difficult. We finally have a conference game in the sec. For conference heavyweight the alabama crimson tide. And when you look at this number here alabama and overwhelming favourite for their trip to gainesville to take on florida. You're looking at alabama in this contest. A fourteen and a half point favorite number as high as fifteen and some shops total in this game at fifty nine at fan duel. Sportsbook what we know about alabama win over miami win over mercer okay. We can say what we want about it florida. Very workman-like in their wins as well over to stay programs florida atlantic. They don't get the cover but they were the dominant side winning thirty five fourteen and then again. South florida probably could escort sixty in that game before taking their foot off the gas paint quarterback situation. It feels like alabama known commodity. Bryce young florida much more unsettled trying to figure out. If they're going to have to healthy weapons there. Emory jones and richardson. The reality of this though is maybe it's florida's defense and their potential to slow down alabama's offense that we still haven't truly get tested with those new. Look weapons i mean. That's that's a big question and you know this is bryce young's first career road star obviously played on a massive stage to start the season against miami but that was basically a home game. Now it's ninety thousand plus packed into the swamp. Sell-out was announced more than a week before the game. So that place is going to be loud. What is interesting here to this point in the week. Betters are selling alabama in that something that we haven't really heard over the years right. There's a touch of florida money that came in and open pinnacle. Go from fifteen down to fourteen just key yesterday. And i think it's selling alabama because the first two games we've seen betters with influence. Sell the gators right. Take the points with both fau and usf and they were selling them in the offseason on the wind total so this feels like a little bit of a fade of of alabama which is odd are corn number on the game. Thirteen and a half. I still didn't wanna take fourteen and a half or better on florida beating. Miami doesn't look obviously as impressive seeing them struggle in their opener against app state. Obviously you know. Alabama wasn't the most buttoned up against mercer last week although at least allows sabin to have some bulletin board material this week for his players while the match up. I think it's probably pretty known and understood the florida's defenses improved. But we're going to find out how much i don't get the vibe. They're close to being all the way back. They haven't played an offense that we respect. Fau outside the top eighty five offensive efficiency. Usf outside the top one twenty. This kind of feels like a feast or famine matchup. Here you know todd. Grantham defense is one that likes to send pressure thirty five percent blitz rate last season when he doesn't send pressure. The foundation of his defense is stunts in twists in in games upfront. That is one area that can give alabama some trouble. It's the one thing. I think when we talked about the top ten last week was like hey sure. Everyone's kind of anointing alabama the champion already. But they've kind of struggled upfront and production and so i think from an experience chemistry standpoint this bam online that todd grantham defense has seen well while he's been at florida miami and mercer. Brace young's been pressure on forty two percent of drawbacks in those games. Now he's been absolutely in waco one thirty two passer rating sixteen yard. A dot seventy five percent adjusting completion percentage five touchdowns picks but i could see a situation where the swamp is just rockin and bam line still kind of figuring out that chemistry in cohesion struggles from time to time. Can i think that's important. Because most teams efficiencies obviously decline. When they're throwing unknown passing situations for bama that dip is pretty large compared to you know years past with two and mac right now through two games. Bama's offensive success rate dips twenty seven percent when they're executing on standard downs verse known passing situations on the back end them tries to confuse you with different. Looks which can be difficult for for young quarterbacks. You know last year if you look at some of his coverage schemes covers zero cover one and cover to roughly half the snaps. Let's call it and cover three cover foreign covers. Six are the other fifty percent. So sometimes when grantham sends heat. It's tight man other times. It can be pressure up front. He's dropping four six kind of forcing quarterback to read quickly and throw it accurately into like some of these zone windows. The biggest thing here the defensive style that grantham wants requires you to win a lot of one on one match ups and it's always difficult to out athlete alabama. So this has this feast or famine element. Which i've i've mentioned right. I mean florida could win the match up a couple of drives in a row and then poof right. Like seventy art explosive for bama through two games against fau and us f. right who have poor offenses gators defense is giving up. Twenty four chunk plays eight plays of twenty plus so i think explosives are going to determine this side of the matchup but if florida has a chance they have to get to bryce young. They have to make feel uncomfortable for some innocent mistakes. His metrics under pressure are surely going to regress. they're just unsustainable right now but a florida can't get pressure. This game's over the other injury here to monitor is the status eventual miller. He's florida starting linebacker. He is the the leader the quarterback of the defense. He's dealing with an elbow injury. It sounds like to me. Todd unless you have differing information that he's not necessarily trending in the right direction as of but will we will have to keep our eye on that from now. It didn't sound like there was a high level of optimism because if you read some of the quotes that were there they were trying to figure out who could assume their responsibilities. And that's not something. You're doing early in the week if you're optimistic. That kind of caliber of player from a leadership standpoint is going to be out there so i think it's the save assumption to make as we sit here on wednesday. We know things will change a four kickoff on saturday. Eventual miller won't be out there for the game against alabama. And you raise them real interesting points. They're talking about the boomer. Bust mentality for florida. And i almost think that that's the kind of approach you have to take into alabama. Because if you're going to play the bend but don't break defense against the crimson tide. You know you're going to be able to slow them down for a limited period of time so if you create those plays force at turnover two. That's a gamble. You're willing to take knowing at the risk of giving up a seventy yard explosive. Play over the top always looms in the back of your mind. One thing for me paying that. I'm curious to see in. This game can alabama at their ground game on track. I mean you talked about their offensive line issues in pass blocking. But i wasn't blown away with their effort against miami trying to establish brian robinson who is expected to be the next great in a long line of alabama bax. So let's see if they can create some balance on that side of the ball. Meanwhile for florida. I think both you and i have some skepticism about emory jones. Coming into the year a lot of people called him a darkhorse heisman candidate. And that's probably credit more to dan mullen than emory skillset. Suddenly we have anthony richardson. Who goes out there. And has eleven carries for two hundred and seventy five yards including an eighty are run. Usf but richardson was injured. News relatively optimistic. He was out of practice about his availability and a hamstring. And in my opinion pain. When you look at this florida offense. You don't have that same level of skill position town in a kyle. Pit cadaverous tony a trust so. I think having that change up at the quarterback position between emory between richardson knowing. They have to get the ball. Jacob copeland goes a long way if they're gonna keep alabama stop unit off bounds. I think you're spot on. Although i don't know yeah is it. Emory jones is an anthony. Richardson is it a mix of both. What's the rotation and snap percentage look like they are stylistically at this point very similar. Whoever the quarterback is. I think it's pretty clear this bama's best defense and couple years even without christopher allen. Who's that that'll be a big loss here. Not just on the production side of things. But he was kind of the leader. And you're going into a hostile environment. Sometimes you know you give up a big player to the the calming effect that the defense needs so. Let's see if he's missed that way. Florida i don't know what they are. Offensively it's really interesting to me. They're bama has dominated early in games with their starters on the field giving up less than three yards per play in the first half this year that taken a lot of starters off the field in the second half obviously that metric includes the mercer data. Point where bama held them to less than one and a half yards per play again pretty impressive dominating inferior opponents can still help project and alabama's defense has done that. We thought the unit was improved. We've gotten confirmation through two games that had has. Let's see what dan mullen comes up with. His best attribute is scheming and designing an offense right calling place. Everything else has gone man. This is what he does and if you listen to his presser is basically said all week. He's told anyone who wants to listen that he's held things back for this game. I'm not sure those new elements look like or if emory jones can even execute them. But let's see. And the issue that we saw with. Emory jones coming into the year was that it was a massive downgrade from trask. Inaccuracy last year. Fifty three percent of emory jones throws were accurate through two games against one defense outside the top one hundred and efficiency in the other one barely inside the top fifty. Emory jones been accurate on fifty five percent of his throats. And you mentioned richardson. Gator fans are clamoring for. ar fifteen. He looks like he's built in a lab and he's a big boy he's he's sprint and ten yards doing backflips and you know he can run. He can throw the ball a country mile. He dropped a couple of times last week. there's a thrower he was running. Laugh jumped in through like thirty nine yards in the air to copland. And it's like you know he looks like patrick mahomes. But when you look at all the throws and not just the highlights in the wild place forty five percent accuracy. Accuracy rate through two games hasn't done a lot of passes small sample. But you know we we see the highlights and we obviously know the ceiling with richardson's far greater than with emory jones. But you have to be precise against album. Right knowing the passers that that emory and richardson of kind of shown to be at this point florida's got in the early down battle. Because if you think. Emory jones is beating nick sabin from third and six. Plus you have another coming bama has done a great job. Stuffing run special in early downs. Twenty five percent stuff right through two games have done well creating havoc with both the front seven and their defensive backs. But i think this game's pretty simple if you're watching at home. What's the third down marker. Say and fortunately because this is an on espn three espn plus. You're actually be able to see. Cbs let's hope they got the down markers working. And so if you're watching this and it's third and five or less and florida is bypassing a good number of third downs. They'll have a chance to stay within the number if not alabama's gonna win by three or four scores. The positive also for alabama is the opposite on the injury. Front right will anderson status just an absolute pressure monster. He is trending in the right direction that the injured b serious. Expect them back at practice today. Josh job in in our more davis both return to practice already so alabama a little bit healthier on the defensive side of the balls while you seen anything on the total for this game. I mean this feels like the element is high variants in terms of trying to assess value in the betting market as the side is years while i haven't but obviously dan mullen has proven to have some success against alabama's defense in the past with some of the things he does but as you alluded to at the top right you know. Tony isn't walking through. That door pitches and walking through that door. Trask isn't walking through that door. And so a lot of this is going to be on. Emory jones to be inaccurate passer. Sure we have seen mobile quarterbacks give savings defense from troubles in the past but all those guys could also throw right. When you think about the johnny manziel they could throw the ball. Emory jones hasn't proven that he's a consistent enough passer. And so if you're in alabama defense who's got thirty seven analysts when you kind of come up with a game plan here. It's going to stop. The legs of the quarterbacks i in turn them into passers second right that that's at school. It's what's going to happen here so from that perspective. I'm not quite sure how florida's going to move. The ball. Offensively as as dan mon alluded to. Maybe there's a surprise here. Maybe there's something on film that he has not shown yet means bend in the sec. He's been an offensive mine for fifteen years. So i don't know what those things could be. Obviously you come up with new elements in the off season every year but in at this point we kind of know it. Dan mullen is offensively. I don't know if he's got the horses to kind of pick. Alabama part like they did last year and then from the other perspective is. Let's see what alabama's offense is. If pressure is on there could be some boomer bus plays. They're dutch just how alabama's athletes are and that's how florida's defensive scheme with grantham this so the total for me is is interesting here. I have not seen anything But it's not to say that that someone sharp didn't didn't go over fifty seven and a half year and that's that's why we're out to fifty nine. I'm not quite sure. I haven't seen it. If it's if it's coming up very fair assessment. I think Early in the year. We get good measuring stick games for teams like this and when you have one of the favorites in the west matching up with one of the secondary favorites in the east. It should give us a pretty good indication of exactly where these two teams are this early in the season from an east west showdown in the sec. Though pain will head to big ten country where it's north meets south but it's also a good time to remind all of our listeners to follow pain on twitter at paine insider. I'm todd firm and you can follow me there. Most importantly follow the podcast at bet. The board pod also to youtube dot com search bet aboard. Subscribe to our youtube channel. Where there's a good chance will break down. One of these. Two games on our friday pre-game show as well and of course the second marquee matchup of the weekend. Pain that you touchdown at the top of the show penn state playing host to the auburn tigers. And we're looking at penn state right now in this particular match up a six point favorite at fan duel sportsbook total on the game sits at fifty three. It'll be a white out night at beaver stadium. Obviously an honor normally reserved for visits for michigan or ohio state. But they're mixing it up this year. We talked about. Luke fickle being mentioned as head coaching candidate for the job. James franklin falls into that same bucket and he had to answer questions about it this week and some of his media availability when you look at these games. There's no doubt that penn state has already been battle-tested. They have a resume defining win week. One where they beat wisconsin at camp. Randall seventeen sixteen as six point underdog. Meanwhile brian har- seen. Hey auburn's done what you'd expect them to do against fear opposition. But let's not kid ourselves. Accurate and alabama state aren't exactly a good indication of what this auburn team will be. And then the eight hundred pound gorilla in the room that no auburn fan wants to talk about pain road. Both knicks alburns played. Nobody you you are correct akron. Alabama state akrons power rating for us is is outside the top one fifty in the country when we include fcs team. That's not very good albums. Stayed out no alabama state outside the top twenty. You can only play. Who's in front of you and you know flat out embarrassing bag. Teams isn't the most predictive. But it still is. i mean. Auburn's exceeded oddsmaker expectation by an average of twelve point. Two five points. So far so from that perspective they. They've shown well the problem is in in you. Hit this perfectly is in recent years. Now i get it under gus malzahn and completely different coach completely different scheme but auburn's offense has struggled against better competition. It struggled on the road. And now you're those two things together because you're stepping up in class against the best team in the country. Not quite sure. I just no one is no one i was gonna ask you. I was gonna ask known you're buying into. Psu seven best team in the country and maybe by default but it's by default right and then. Obviously you mentioned this. You're going on the road. Beaver stadium going to be a packed house going to be a white out game. I don't know if you can actually say that in twenty twenty one. But that's what it's going to be. Knicks has been wildly inconsistent as you mentioned especially on the road four and five in two road games for his career thirteen touchdowns twelve interceptions away from jordan hare in the nine true road games. Bonuses eclipse seven yards per pass attempt. Only twice. that was against arkansas. Two thousand nineteen who finished eighth in defensive efficiency that year and ole miss last season. They finished eightieth. This is a little bit of a different animal with penn. State's defense ranked fifth inefficiency. Right now again. My gut says they're not quite that good but here we are. I do think the secondary is very good with three. Returning starters both wisconsin and ball state our top fifty offenses and shoes third in coverage. Great right now. So they certainly the more battle-tested team bow knicks. He's played nine games against defenses top fifteen inefficiency in his auburn career the tiger to in seven in those games. They've lost by an average of nine point. Nine points so something to think about here. What could give auburn's offense a chance and help bonex this all ground game all five offensive line return. Brian hartson hasn't been content with that. He's mixed and matched linemen throughout both game searching for the best five. He said he may do the same thing against penn state. This week we know biggby is physical. He's the bell cow back. Jarque was hunter the freshman from philly. Great change of pace back loaded the ground. Just absolute lightning. Seventy one percent of his yards are before contact. He's been untouchable playing down in competition. Obviously the first two weeks. Psu been a little bit vulnerable along the defensive line. I thought that was kind of the area coming into the season. We weren't quite sure. Obviously you know they're getting some great production out of the temple transfer. A psu gave up zero point. Seven epa per rush against wisconsin there ninety eight and thefts run grade metric. This game can't be one hundred percent on bonex shoulders. But ultimately bo does need to be more consistent far too many laws and and lowells over the career even last week we talked off air about this against alabama. And i'm sure there's a couple of drops but that's the perfect time to come out work on things it's not about blown out alabama am like. Let's kind of figure out what the offense is. Let's get bo knicks comfortable within. Let's get him going. Through his progressions he starts the game. One for four finished nine for seventeen ten percent of his throws or turnover or against alabama state. And so you know you're kind of just left scratching your head is. This kid can ever be consistent. Is he ever going to be able to find a floor. That's reasonable and honestly what makes this game so interesting todd is. There's a ton of variants in the game with quarterbacks like nixon clifford who do have these really low lows and you can kind of see them sometimes get down on themselves when things aren't going great and both learn brand new systems in their third game in those systems and so that's gonna be the interesting part here now. Cor number on this game penn state minus five point eight so not much value but ultimately i think it comes down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes and ultimately. That's probably the team that wins and governor. Maybe it's time pain that Sec fan base is start. Making t-shirts say bono's road woes. And see if they can get those things selling at a decent clip you mentioned by the way jackass. Hunter the kid from philadelphia mississippi. I was blown away when i dug into some of his high school numbers. When you're breaking marcus dupree's high school record for touchdowns that says something about your ability level and yes his fifteen yards per carry through the first two games. Probably not sustainable when you start taking. Sec competition the one thing for auburn. You talked about it. How it needs to be a balanced attack. Wisconsin did have a modest level of success running against penn state But that was brute force. I mean they ran for more than two hundred yards. If you back out cram mertz sack yardage but it took him nearly fifty carries to do so. And when you look at penn state defensively brandon smith and pg lucifer have been outstanding so they can force auburn into no in passing situations. I it's not gonna be a pleasant road debut for brian har- scenes bunch on the other side of the ball pain. I think you. And i have been waiting for penn state to show some of mikey. Riches dare year sich. Always going to butcher his name until i hear one hundred times some of his dna operating with pace and tempo. We didn't see a lot of that at all against ball state last week. In a game or penn state really could be rather vanilla. I thought the game. It'd be a little bit closer. They of course win the game. Forty four thirteen. When you look at penn state offensively talked about sean clifford mercurial sort under center. The one comment. That auburn has made multiple times in some of the press conferences and the media availability. Harseno's knows he's gotta pay special attention to parker washington and jon dot. Yes and you know the thing that will really stood out to me. Last week was his almost like penn. State's offense went the opposite of what auburn's offense did. I thought sean clifford got some good work in last week. It was clear that there was this plan for him. Not to just like take off. When the i look wasn't there you're sich made him go through his progressions in reading some of the articles and watching the postgame pressures usage wanted to prepare clifford for the weeks ahead write. It wasn't necessarily about pummeling the hundred best defense in ball state into submission. He wanted clifford to kind of work through the progressions and just not tucked the ball at the first sign of trouble because he knew it could potentially help down the line for games like this against auburn and so just feels like those two are on the same page with your search and clifford there. They seem to be doing some things that both like when we broke down that wisconsin game in week one is it needs to increase his his normal rate of play action now that he has clifford and because the splits there were just dramatically better with play action than without now sudden through two weeks up to a thirty nine percent play action rate eleven percent more than yours such used at texas last season. Clifford's done a good job. Protecting the ball hasn't made a single turnover worthy. Throw despite blang jim. Leonard's defense and the kicker through two games twenty one percent of clifford's throws have been twenty plus yards. He's thrown deep now last year. That number was nine percent in saying all that. Here's where the matchup gets a little interesting. Because you have your sich against derek mason and the offense is that you're such run our rpo based they have some spread concepts as you alluded to. They have some tempo although not as much this year are they waiting to break it out against better. Competition has james franklin said. Hey like let's not put her defense in poor positions and go at a normal rate of tempo. We'll see again. The offense operates with some outside zone. Some wide zone run schemes. Okay the reason. Derek mason became a hot commodity in kind of catapulted into the vanderbilt job was because his final two years at stanford is defense did a number when they faced offenses with pace and spread. Rpo concept's that organ ran and at the time those two games came in two thousand twelve and two thousand thirteen and two thousand twelve chip. Kelly was still organ. Two thousand thirteen. He wasn't but oregon was still ranked second in the country. Both those times and stanford beat oregon twice dare basins defense which was built to stop tempo spread. Rpo and outside zone held marcus mariota and oregon to thirty four total points in two games. And so when you're such was hired at oklahoma state one of the headlines. I found and went back and was like searching for ten year old articles this week. The headline was osu. Football remains on the oregon trail and so the principles and concepts are very similar to what. You're sich and oregon ran. And what derek mason was able to kind of stifle so this is going to be a real cat and mouse game between your sich and mason. It actually may come down to a game. That's decided more by the coaches and the xs and os than the gyms joe's okay and so let's see if derek mason can do enough to stop another spread. Rpo wide zone run scheme and bone x can play to a normal floor and not have these really lows and i think ultimately that will decide this game. It's one of those interesting ups. i feel. We don't get enough of these in college football. The trend obviously when you get to prestigious programs like this they always do battle on a neutral field. And while it's great to see the georgia's against clemson's week one and the alabama miami's. I love the idea that auburn's got the guts to go on the road into unfamiliar territory and play true road game against penn state. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come especially with expanded college. Football playoff truly be an electric atmosphere. And i love the fact that everything coming out of auburn's campus that they're relishing this opportunity to do something that a lot of kids won't and while it's not going to be the iron bowl or anything close. It's still one of the more. I chronic venues in college football. It's a great place to play and we're gonna see what auburn is. Obviously you know. You're replacing every aspect of the coaching staff. And to this point hartson and the players have said the right things the players have bought in. But this is just a different animal. This is an acronym is an alabama state. It's on the road against penn state team that has some cohesion. It's going to be a ridiculous venue at night and so this is just a different task for auburn. And you know you always look at these games. And certainly penn state is former battle-tested. When you go on the road week one with a brand new o. C. and you pull out a win regardless of how it transpired you're going to be more battle-tested for game like this you can be on pain share with our listeners that you were hoping that they were going to be three feet of snow on the ground at beaver stadium to really make this game that much more aesthetically pleasing while you sat there and you're boxer shorts and south florida and watch it saturday night wouldn't have minded some nice little twenty two mile. An hour brisk crosswind. Ross one of mine. The little snow Yeah yeah the only reason. I can make that joke. I've been one. Sec football game in my entire life and it was an auburn georgia game. It is still the coldest recorded kickoff temperature for georgia. Home game in league play. I think it was twenty six degrees when they welcomed in auburn so it will not be forgotten on me anytime soon. Something i grew up with going to north western games. Not necessarily what i expected in the but all right too big game breakdowns. Four key factors in the other marquis games to appreciate all of you are loyal. Bet the board listeners. Who voted in our poll will try and incorporate you know some of those elements on weeks. Where the schedule looks a little bit. Dicey obviously we get into the nuts and bolts will pick the biggest games is. We've done over the years to try and include those but if there's a fringe candidate we want to know the games that you guys want to hear us breakdown so appreciate that as cincinnati. Indiana was the runaway winner. This week we were still able to sneak in michigan. State miami game which came up second in that whole want to encourage all of you our loyal listeners to go to fan duel dot com slash bet the board take advantage of generous. Sign up bonuses. Make sure you give yourself another extremely valuable out this football season. There's no reason to ever take a bad number especially when fan tools available in a state near you pain one final order of business to transact here and of course everyone knows where we're going it is of course our investible component of this fine program not like everything else. You can't use to make a few extra dollars. But where are you seeing opportunity and upside as it pertains to a spat for college football week. Three you know this is a little bit tougher of aboard to navigate. Don't necessarily love anything. But i will say this. We talked off air. Obviously lean towards this. Psu auburn under. It does make me a little nervous that you're such hasn't quite broken out the tempo yet and that could be thing. Let's go to rotation number one. Four five florida state seminoles plus the points. I think for the point of this show. Let's call it five and a half. There is some six out there. This is effectively. Florida state season is effectively Think going to be quite telling for this current regime and if this game were played last week this line would be wake forest minus two. And so you're getting great value. And what should be an all in effort here from florida state and i think they're going to be refocused. It was still a team. That was up ten driving late against jacksonville state and then just kind of crap the bed. I think we're gonna see a little bit more form with what florida state wants to be offensively. I think the eye on the prize which is getting their first win. Not starting the season three is going to be the key focal point throughout practice this week. I'm hearing through the first couple of days. Everyone is fully intent. They are jacked up their wired in. And so i think we see a game effort here. If we don't then this is going to be pretty ugly for florida state. moving forward. Obviously parts of their schedule have gotten a little bit softer moving forward. When you look at a guy like your kovic going out for bbc miami not looking. Its best a couple other key injuries to nc state and obviously there are some key andrews to wake forest. I know that was a team that you like coming into the season and suddenly poof. Before the year three key cogs are out one of the best weapon offense. One of the best defensive players and so wake forest hasn't looked the best through two games. And i just think the number here in a week where i don't necessarily love anything. Let's play the number for a desperate team in a big spot and so when you take five and a half and a game that should probably have been one and a half or two last week. I think that makes i can't wait. I can't wait for folks that are listening to this podcast to come out and call you a homer but let me be the first one to defend pain for anyone that even wants to insinuate that. We do things based on bias around here. You guys couldn't be further from the truth. The only thing that we root for a week in week out basis is money when we're invested breath there for the homer dialogue. Leave that to me. A bus pains balls for at the top of the show and before we close up shop. Yeah i mean that. That's my my favorite team. Is is the one that i bet on. My loyalty is to the bank roll and so again. It's just one of those things where you know the laughing stock of college football right now. Losing the jacksonville state that play has been on every broadcast news. Feed social media channel. And because of that were were getting value here in florida state in a spot that this might be the biggest game in this coaching staff regime to this point. I really think it's that important. You start owing three trouble ahead urine. Start losing some recruits. Nobody knows who the heck jacksonville state is on the recruiting trail half these college kids. Don't even watch college football or half. The high school kids rather don't even watch college football and but you lose to wake forest. That's the name they know. And they know it's you know at the lower middle tier of the acc so huge game for the program here and we're getting some value as well you know. I don't want anybody to feel bad for me. Pain by any stretch of the imagination but to put things in perspective when the to college football programs i root for weekend week alfred. Two of those that are closest to me during football season both have embarrassing efforts. One being florida state. Losing outright as a four touchdown favorite against jacksonville state and my lovely fiancee's alma mater losing outright to stanford a seventeen point favorite. It was not the most pleasant saturday evening dealing with her downstairs. And some of your angry text messages. So let's hope florida steak. It's a resounding win here in. Us can go on the road and pullman and knock off washington state for my own sanity and wellbeing when that happens. Do you just say hey. You know what. I'm going to go to the local team. Check out some. Unlv should help my spot. No i watched more. Unlv football week wanna gets eastern washington. Then i'll openly admit one thing. I will say though is. Unlv football not exactly optimistic about the homefield environment. They're going to be able to create this weekend for iowa state's arrival. I think allegiance stadium is opening the upper deck because there was such an increased demand for those folks wanting to get out of aims to come exercise some demons in the wake of that cy hawk loss so i have to imagine it will be a sea of golden red there. So if you're looking to build and homefield advantage for. Unlv for those folks out there probably would not be uprooted decision now thankfully and my house or they got a little better on sunday with the steelers upsetting buffalo. So there was a silver lining. But all right we anytime. You can. Upgrade aims for vegas and use the excuse of football. You've just gotta do it to your point. I did see a little sharp money. Come in on the cyclones minus twenty nine. Everyone wants to eulogize matt campbell and brock purdy already but dig into that box score. Four hundred to one seventy was the final statistical breakdown. Sure they lost the game twenty seven seventeen but i don't think all is lost on the clones just yet. I want to thank all of you guys are. Have you seen that joke joke. Surfacing through through the interwebs that brock parties qbr to this point in the season if if it worries female would not be legal. Then that's not exactly a ringing endorsement for a quarterback. What about two years ago people were talking about is a potential number one overall pick in the draft. Ugly start start. You'll see that's why they play the games and that's why teams have a chance to go out there and still win their conference when you drop an ugly non conference game but wanna remind everyone follow paying on twitter at paine insider a follow me there well at tot firm and again most importantly follow the podcast at the board pot. Go to youtube search. Bet the board. Subscribe to our youtube channel. The bet the board pre-game show episode two will be available on friday. We'll have some college football content on there along with the national football league and regardless of where you choose to invest this weekend but especially with ticket number one forty five florida state plus five and a half in your pocket. We'll see you at the window for listening to the board. You can catch todd and pain every monday. Wednesday and thursday during football season. Breaking down the biggest. Nfl and college football games and to make sure you don't miss any free best. Bets subscribe to bet the board on itunes google. Play spotify or wherever. You listen to podcasts.

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NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints

Bet The Board

1:03:51 hr | 1 year ago

NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints

"Along. That thou board with? Those Bet You twenty bucks I can get you can't for the end of the year only fifteen. How they. Pay debts men his manny. It's the board podcast. Originally. The End. Up Right back where I Could still pick winners. Make money for all kinds of people back home and why mess up a good thing airs pain insider and Todd. into the board podcast powered by Fan Duel Nfl week five Monday night football edition I'm your host Todd Furman joined by my colleague and Co host the one, the only pain insider. Got To tell you. These Monday morning podcasts a little more difficult after bad weekend. Never. Ideal. You feel you get a little more pep in your staff and your little more anxious and excited to discuss the weekend that was when you have a winner in your back pocket. But alas, unfortunately, that hasn't quite been the case. Not at all and starting to get the SNIFFLES, the the lack of sleep is kicking in. So I just this morning ordered. Five five counties I cam so we've got that rolling in and. We're off figured you kept out in supply I mean you probably three hundred and sixty days worth. Supply of it but no, you had actually order some fresh supplies for the upcoming football season. I've already gone through five. Five packs in the first five weeks so. Excuse. Me That's. That's where we're at right now you got to just pop just anytime. You feel like you might get the sniffles or you have a little bit of a headache or you're not getting the proper rest gotta pop them that may tell us more than we need to know. But as long as you're not taking xanax Valium, we're headed in the right direction though and pain regardless of how our weekend went. It still went better than one particular football coach one that has a special place in our hearts. WHO's that? The one, the only Dan Clin down there in lovely Atlanta who took his general manager Thomas Dmitri ought to the employment line with them. Yeah I was smart just clearing the entire. Deck. there. Listening you. You're never rooting for anyone to get fire hall, of course. Is Yeah the obvious is that things weren't going well, but past the point of record all the little things. Leading up to this made me feel like this was should have been done ages ago rhyming like Dan Coins fired himself multiple times already arthur blank just had so that was pretty telling all the players that have been drafted there defensively none of them have materialized. So that's partly why Dmitrov is gone. But Dan. Hasn't been able to develop that talent whether it was at pass rusher or in the secondary either. So it's not just about the results which are very poor and being in defensive-minded guy with a piss poor defense that blows large leads. But The maturation of some of these players have been drafted Dan. Quinn hasn't been able to get them to the level. That most thought they would be able to play it. So it's it's a combination of a lot of things. This was long overdue. This is the Lee shocking news ever in fact if he was. Still retained enabled the coach moving forward. That would have been the bigger shocker here. Makes two coaches that have outlasted him gay so far this season which continues to be one of the more intriguing storylines out there if you're the Atlanta falcons pain and you're looking to try and bring in someone you're focusing on the offensive side have to imagine, and you begin to look at other head coaches or coordinators in the NFL or do you even decide to tap into the potential college pipelines? You're definitely going offense I always talk about this. This seems so simple to me right now you can't hire a defensive minded coach to be your head coach I truly believe that in twenty twenty, the way the rules are designed with offense meaning more and having more value than defense you have to go with an offense mind not just from that perspective, but you think about the hiring process along the way and defensive-minded head coach. You're probably going to have to continually hire new offense have minds if there are any good. Within one to three seasons so he's going to be that constant turnover few the right guy offensively he's going to get picked off for a better job. Just the reality of the situation especially at the college level. That's more so. But even at the NFL level, you have a very good offensive minded coach. He's going to get picked off for a job, and so you're going to have to rehire you're gonNA always have to be good hiring in finding the right guy, and then you're likely going to be changing systems every few seasons. That's the downside if you hire defensive minded coach and it goes swimmingly, it goes really well, you're going to have to continually higher well, no, it's a great point and I think it's one that. A Lotta people probably don't think about when you have the changing continuity, you obviously want your offense to remain the same defensive systems come and go and probably much easier to replace smart minds on that side of the ball which leads into a perfect segue. When you talk about a defensive minded head coach children aggressive tendency and I really believe it was the right call last night and Sunday night football Mike Zimmer torn apart by some of the idiots on social media elected go for it on fourth and inches. At Lea- Seattle marches the length of the Field Russell Wilson leads his thirtieth game winning touchdown drive but there's no way to be critical of the Vikings trying to win it with their offense on the field. It's more reflection of of their inability to pick up one yard that would ultimately lead to victory. Yeah. I, completely. Agree there's without question to me. That was the right call. The probability even suggested that it was a fifty fifty coin flip in terms of win probability to me. At one in three in running for six yards, a carry all night picking up half a yard to end the game. Is the right situation there one hundred out of one hundred times. The problem is the things that preceded. The decision were the weaknesses in the Achilles heel of the vikings through the first month of the season. Now, those things through the first fifty eight minutes last night. We're fantastic. We talked about the online not being able to get a push all season we talked about the defense throwing up on itself continually in through fifty eight minutes. Both of those things where the opposite defense was fantastic offensive line was awesome. But you just didn't get that that final surge that you need from the offensive line, and then defensively, you couldn't get the key stop crucial fourth-down completions two of them bolted decay metcalf. And not, GONNA lie. That was monsters for for us is good for our listeners. We went under nine on the Vikings win total. So that was a big win to To remove from the books of the Minnesota Vikings this season there is no doubt in your seven hundred dog and you have their win total under he hoped a search teams they lose even if they happen to be by the slimmest of margins. So Seattle goes it thereby week undefeated at five in Minnesota continuing to take steps forward but clearly one, they may regret knowing that the NFC playoff picture outside the top teams looks pretty muddled on sitting two. And three would have been a lot better for them than one in four. All right here pain in my backyard I think you have to tip your hat the raiders probably get their biggest win during the John era going on the road to Arrowhead winning outright as thirteen point dogs on the open. We did see them take substantial steam on Game Day with that number ultimately closing ten even if it came at the expense of your beloved Patrick, don't. Yes, that was one that. Was a little shocking I didn't think they would get their outright but anytime, you can win one. Straight up as a touchdown. Or more or a double digit dog there. You're probably GONNA make the good list Derek Carr I thought was fantastic. The offense was efficient and explosive, and that's a pretty deadly combination if you look. Vegas was able to play a little keep away because sixty three percent of their runs graded successful. So they're able to maintain that possession keep mahomes on the sideline Derek Carr hit a few big plays through the air view look ten point eight yards per pass attempt at six explosives, and then the second half you know when you kind of consider the opponent I think the raiders. Defense played one of their better halves of football probably in the group. Nara, you hold Kansas City in that second half to twenty one percent success rate one point, two yards per carry. So you make the chiefs one dimensional in a game that was tied at one point, and then you look through the air. Casey mahomes twenty eight percent success rate in the second half in your force. A turnover get a couple big sacks there. So that is a monster win for the raiders heading into their by you know midway through the fourth quarter, the raiders defense it held the chiefs just twenty five yards, and then of course, Kansas City finds ways to sustain drives late and you start to wonder is it going to happen? Is Patrick Mahomes GonNa show a little bit more. Magic when they had dipped to as low as fifty no one moneyline underdogs chasing sixteen point deficit of the raiders they get that monkey off their back a huge win against Kansas City, and we know Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have been damn near impossible to beat in the AFC west in terms of other good performances or surprising in the positive manner what stood out to you yesterday. Obviously, the dolphins you know and I wasn't in love initially with the. Hiring of old man Chan the the dolphins. Oh see but. His game plan was good here against the forty niners. Now is an obvious game plan, right but still good you know you have a gunslinger at quarterback that was almost bench this week. Up Against The San Francisco Secondary. So Fitzpatrick really had nothing to lose and he came out attacking the I play the game was deep shot to price Williams down the sideline thought that really set the tone fitzpatrick was actually the most accurate quarterback of week five to this point accuracy which thirteen percent above expectation he averaged over eleven yards per pass attempt and a sixty percent success rate with six explosive. So Fitzpatrick was awesome. The dolphins offense was great. But I really like the aggressiveness there and one thing chance done while they've bogged down at times in the red zone because they've gone a little to run. Happy there. At least China's letting fitzpatrick aired out and I, think those two receivers on the outside for the dolphins are really really underrated. So using those guys like oppressed in Williams to go up against a beaten and battered forty nine or secondary in Devante Parker, they basically just dominated those guys outside that was the right move and Fitzpatrick on fire into the dolphins credit. It looks like they found a running back that they can lean on a little bit more we knew was. Going to be a committee approach early on in the season but miles gaskin has done everything in his power to kind of assert himself as the lead back there and it's paying dividends I. I saw that game seventeen seven Miami had to do a double take. Then obviously, it snowballed from there massive win for the dolphins. You now have a very winnable football game on deck. This coming weekend is they'll play host the new, York jets with the schedule a reshuffling took place. For. Me Pain when I under dog story there by the way for Gaskins guy wasn't even projected to make the roster and he's their starting running back. It seems that we get a lot more of these situations developing than we ever would have imagined I mean draft status doesn't appear to be the determining factor. I mean gaskins asserting himself there. We know about James Robinson is kind of taken on a leading role in Jacksonville, and I'll be at very different situations no the jags more or less late in egg with their performance against. The Houston Texans, but I guess we have to give Houston a little bit of credit for always picked on them. I. Know It was the Jags but they mass almost five hundred yards on less than sixty plays average more than eight and a half yards per play. Now, it does come at the expense of a Jaguars defense that was down arguably four of its top five players. Your when you lose Miles Jack and you lose your to starting corners. And John Portent the way Josh. Too. Right. Yeah I believe so. More. Importantly, the way you went about. This prior week right everyone thought the. You know when you look at Houston right basically revolted against the head coach. So they had to come out here or would have been proven that hey, maybe this team just isn't very good. So this was kind of that last ditch effort here from Houston they did take advantage of beat up Jacksonville Defense But it was good to get to Shawn Watson gone right ten point two yards per pass attempt to sixty three percent success rate through the air yet six explosives and three touchdowns. He's still turn the ball over a little bit too much needs to get that figured out not quite sure what Tim Kelly is the the OC. So it'll be interesting to see what those game plans look like moving not completely in love with him but something to monitor, and this was a a good stepping stone for the Texans offense. Before we fully transition from the good the bad. A one game in particular stands out and want to get your take on. It was one team being particularly good or the their opponents struggling a decent amount, and that of course was the browns colts performance. We saw the browns take money throughout the course of the week ultimately close short favourite John Sheeran on Thursdays podcast kind of indicated that might be the case. They go out there they get a big win moved to foreign one on the season. But for me pain I watched Indianapolis Colts team, we thought the defense wasn't as good as advertised but that wasn't the problem that offense still seems to be struggling to find an identity and I was reluctant to sign in Philip rivers being old but man did a lot of those throws from the pocket labored enforced. Maybe. You know I think a lot of it has to do with what we're seeing in terms of their offense of identity. They don't know what they want to be quite yet. The ground game hasn't been as efficient as projected when you have that caliber of offensive line than Costanzo missed the game at left tackle, there is a wild. Metric out that called a metric but a trend I think the colts now move to one in ten in. Games. Anthony. Costanzo Mrs clearly vital part there. But in terms of the offense were still getting a lot of predictability from Frank. Reich I mean I didn't watch the game in in full but when I was peaking at just a load of second long runs again weren't overly aggressive early on in the game although it was a little better than last week in terms of aggressiveness but we're looking at the weapons right like I. Know It's easy to point the finger at at at Philip rivers here but like t y Hilton looks like a shell of himself. And we're looking at Paris Campbell and Michael Pittman Junior to young guys who drafted early on in back to backdraughts are are not out there. So the offense just isn't what we expected it to be with the offensive line, not playing up to their potential and just the weapons outside being at this point abysmal. And that was kind of the one thing we discussed multiple weeks ago. The question mark that I had about the offense was the weapons. And Right now, we just need to see what this looks like when they start to get a little bit healthier but clearly a big game this week you're favored by eight and a half you gotta go out there and get a win and I think if you're the colts organization if you could start foreign to after throwing up on yourself week one against Jacksonville, I think you're probably content with that. They can't argue that particular assessment at all and we'll see if they'd get healthier in that receiving core to give Philip rivers a couple of additional weapons of Paris Campbell's return sooner rather than later I, don't even know what to call what I saw. Take place in the nation's capital Washington from an offensive standpoint of course, Dwayne Haskins gets benched in favor of Kyle. Allen. But you can't put all the blame and responsibility on Haskins they pick up one hundred, eight total yards in that. Football game averages shade more than two yards per play seventy, three yards of their total offensive output come on their lone touchdown drive. In the first quarter seven second half drives didn't have a single I down one, thousand, nine plays they gained a grand total of minus six yards. Now, I don't want to bury the Lead Alex Smith back out during a football field something we didn't think we were potentially ever going to see but offensively I mean this Washington team is an absolute mess. Yes, probably one I'm not going to dive into too far because the main story is Alex Smith is back in no one thought that that was. A possibility you know almost two years ago so I don't really want to to crush him. And that's basically. He doesn't look comfortable out there. So we'll have to figure out what that looks like this week but didn't really expect much from out Smith and his I go round. Glad to see him out there they pan to his wife and kids. is the median. All these networks tried to create the storyline drama. So you're watching his wife there as he's out on the field getting sacked a trillion times like just holding their breath. So I I mean, at this point like I don't really want to to crap on the redskins offensive performance, it was just good to see Alex Smith back out there. No, for sure you definitely hope that. He feels more comfortable in the pocket, but you wonder where along the lines of going. All right enough is enough already endured a heck of a lot at that position but ultimately, that falls on Alex. Smith his family and the rest of the Washington football teams organization from a bad standpoint I knew we gave credit to the dolphins. But how much responsibility for what we saw unfold in Santa Clara falls on the forty niners both on the offensive and defensive side. It right now their defense is just beaten and battered you. We know about the guys they lost along the defensive line, but they're also decimated in the secondary. So you're not quite sure one. Some of those guys are GonNa Return. In the back half. That's really impacted things. Kyle Shanahan was caught between a rock and a hard place. Offensively this felt like a good matchup when you look at how the dolphins stopped the run when you look at how they cover line cover tight ends, and running backs, the motion and play action usually has been the Achilles heel, the dolphins defense, but the offense got out to that early lead which was crucial and it forced the forty niners to kind of come out of that running shell I mean if you look at most. Guide like ninety yards averaging like almost niners carry just couldn't get him the ball. The problem is quarterback. So you bring back Jimmy Jews less than one hundred percent, and you have to do that because you don't believe in Cj Beathard but Jack Bench Nick mullins. On the final drive Sunday night. So Kyle Shanahan Ghana. Got Himself caught in a web there. And so clearly, Jimmy G. Not one hundred percent and I know everyone who doesn't like Jimmy. G. Took to social media. Got benched. Technically? Yes. But Kyle Shanahan came out immediately and said, Hey, listen we're trying to protect. Jimmy G.. That's why he's not back out there. So that's kind of created some question marks for the game. This coming weekend is who's going to be the quarterback is Jimmy G. going to be healthy enough to play If not can you go back to Nick Mullins your benched for CJ beathard. So Kyle Shanahan. Right now is in a little bit of a conundrum the quarterback spot. Yeah I, mean I didn't watch the first quarter as I said, I watched the second Jimmy clearly, not comfortable in that ankle there was very little Zap and every throw he may downfield felt like it was airmailed. So be interesting to see how much healthie