3 Episode results for "Todd Bet"

NFL Betting Preview: AFC East Best Bets! Key Metrics, Cam Newton health, Sam Darnold improvement

Bet The Board

1:10:17 hr | 11 months ago

NFL Betting Preview: AFC East Best Bets! Key Metrics, Cam Newton health, Sam Darnold improvement

"Along! That thou board with. Those. Bet You twenty bucks I can get. You can't with forty. Illnesses grand how they? Pay Debts, men his manny. It's the board podcast. Originally. The and. Right back where I? Could still pick winners. Could still make money for all kinds of people back home, and why mess up a good thing airs pain, insider and Todd. Bet. The board podcast powered by Fox. Bet where the off season has gone. We're not quite sure, but it's time for the season preview series. I'm your host todd. Irvine joined by my esteemed colleague and co-host one the only pain insider. The hell you been up to. Do you really, WANNA nobody. Should we share with listenership? What the last couple of months has been like around these parts. Go for. So we're in the process of going through a little bit of a move, of course that was put on hold given the fact that everything that's gone on the world we live in, so had it table that for about three months I, unfortunately became one of the many stricken with the good old corona virus, fortunately pretty mild case around these parts, but let me tell you pain. Being sick for about two weeks to seventeen days isn't a fun, experience or existence for anybody. Let's put it that way. Some would say you've been sick for a long time, but I wasn't sure divulge that the I didn't think Kanobi like hey. I'm damaged goods, guys well I mean I was damaged. Up more pushing towards your your your move your dealings with direct. TV You read that, says we. We can get into that as well, but our bet the board family is our extended family so I haven't really talked about any of that stuff on social media so I figured I would take the opportunity to share some of that Info. Don't sympathy or anything else had a mild case and feel pretty fortunate to be back at nearly one hundred percent, but as far as direct TV, I mean they may not be as capable sponsor for our podcast anytime soon given the way. Way that they've handled things paint. They couldn't show up once. They couldn't show of twice and the one time they did show up. The do didn't want to do the work he was supposed to because he claimed that I didn't have the system regulations. There are too many boxes I mean. Yes, having eleven plus boxes is a little bit much, but at the same time you're paid to do a job. Come do the job. Don't tell me you don't feel like doing it. Like you not showing up for work I will. Kind of of my own boss, but no getting. For. Tough situation and I hate to doom and gloom, but. Soon as Amazon by the NFL, and you don't get the NFL package through direct. TV they're going to be. There'd be hurting, so oh, there's there's no doubt I mean, and I put out a poll. Yesterday and social media was a little bit surprised. I think by how much of the social community actually has gone the court cutting out, because as you and I know. Tran Channel Surfing. Either cable or direct TV can often be a challenge, but I think it's the way things are going, and when you have other options available, and there's no longer monopoly. There's no doubt the companies that don't evolve and seem to advance are going to find themselves left in the dust. Absolutely I mean the only reason I have direct TV as sports, fans for the baggage is is it I don't have a for any of the? Name of the game I mean that's the only reason it's there. So. We'll see exactly what happens, but I'll keep you posted. As we record some of these hopefully direct TV's in because we know, we have major league baseball cranking up later this week. We have a little bit of NBA Nhl. The rise in starting to return normalcy in the sports world I guess that provides the Segue as we go into what AFC a good place to start for us to kick things off. Yeah, we're going to do things a little different this year I know everyone is kind of looking for a bit of an escape. And so we'll provide. That will do exactly like we did with the off-season podcast with free agency in the draft. We're going to split this up into eight parts. Go a little bit deeper on each Then hopefully giving Nice valuable best bet at the end of each one so we'll try to navigate the situation. That's currently going on and. Provide the best Intel we can with. The current set of circumstances we have and. Knock it out of the park. And, one other note to for those listeners out there wondering about the college football previews. Obviously, that's day-by-day thing as we wait for the various conferences across the country to make decisions, will we? Won't. We have football in the fall? We'll of course keep you apprised with that particular schedule as the picture starts to shake out, and we get a little bit more clarity, but alas, we delve into. Into the AFC east to start things off, and of course, as always all numbers and prices provided courtesy of Fox Beck. When you look at the odds to win the AFC, we have seen a little bit of movement amid the signing of Cam. Newton to New England Patriots and moved a slight favorites at plus one. Oh Five! You're looking at the buffalo bills behind them at plus one fifty. Fifty the New York jets, plus seven fifty and pains, beloved Miami Dolphins Picking up the rear eight to one, but hey pain a little bit more optimism going into twenty, twenty, twenty, twenty, one than what we would have had this time last year, so at least you can hang your hat on that, but let's start in western. New York with the Buffalo Bills. Who Find Their win total over? Over under listed at eight and a half you do have to lay a dollar twenty to go over and when you look at Buffalo, we talk about the upcoming NFL season continuity potentially King Buffalo. Return eighty percent of their snaps from last season. The offense brings back more than ninety five percent of their contributions. A team that went ten and six last season finished second in the AFC. I'm not sure bills. Fans want us to revisit that debacle at the hands of the Houston Texans in the wildcard around twenty four consecutive seasons pain Buffalo has gone without a division title third longest active drought in the NFL ahead of only the browns and lions. You WanNa. Keep the biggest thing that will play a role in where this team and franchise goes not only this year years to come Josh Allen and what kind of improvement we should expect from the talented albeit erratic, starting quarterback up there in Buffalo. He made decent strides last season. And on the surface. If you're buffalo and you're a fan, you're looking at basic stats touchdowns. Those were up year over year. Interceptions were down. So you feel good. And, then you look at some things like completion percentage above expectation, Josh Allen proved four percent. It's still below low expectation, though and if you're looking at things like intermediate passing that was Josh Allens best attribute, especially the left side of the field, and we'll get into Stefan. Digs in his importance there, but he still just wildly inaccurate, and that's the one thing I think we struggle with because you talked to the smart guys, right? The talent evaluators like they're. Pretty adamant that that's the toughest thing teach so. When I look at Josh Allen Certainly, he improved. There's a boatload of talent. But there are some things that scare me when you kind of project ahead in hoping for this massive leap in your three. He still had the highest rate of uncatchable passes in the NFL twenty-seven percent. That's pretty pretty alarming. You look at a guy with like this monster arm, and that's why I've ruined falls in love with the writing and just throw it a country mile. Seventy two deep passes of twenty or more yards. That was the six most in the league. Only eighteen of them were completed right, it's it's really not very good and I. Don't know if you heard Doug. McDermott. There's been this little public battle between the two. He's come out and been like. Hey, we kind of want Josh Allen to check the ball down a little bit more. An Allen was like well. You know I don't want to be checked down chat either so there's been this little little battle. It's fun to say you look at Allen. Thirty third and Justin completion percentage deep throws among quarterbacks that played at least seven games. That's pretty concerning the deep ball accuracy rate actually dropped seven percent from his rookie season. So you know there's still a ton of inexperienced there. If you look at Josh Allen and you watch some of the film. He still has trouble processing quickly. Making the right reads. You'll look at how he performs under pressure. Not Good for someone is mobile, as he is a thirty fifth and adjusted completion percent pressured. So you say to yourself like he's young, he's learning. I. Just don't see some of the things that you would hope to see even when he's kept clean. Twenty Four Jessica completion percentage last season you look. Bills were they faced the twenty a bottom ten schedule the first ten weeks of the season in terms of defensive efficiency. He was twenty first in passing success rate over that period, so it looks like he's going to need more help from Brian Day ball again this season. We'll you mentioned Brian? Cabell and I think you're the first one to talk about on this podcast last year as we saw buffalo start to increase tempo and do some unique things offensively. Debut is going to be able to accomplish this offseason. Working with Alan you talked about some of the concerns as far as accuracy in the deep balls, but you feel having a whole off-season. Even one without Otas and a truncated camp will allow them to continue to take strides in the direction. We started to see over the latter portion of the scheduling. We did talk about it last season. Someone ultimately did a good job pulling that me last season every now and every now and again I. Try and get a little bit of Intel and share our listeners, although sometimes it's like trying to pry open clam to get some of that. Intel out of you there you go. So there was you mentioned that big change at happened prior to the week eleven Miami Game Buffalo Moved Brian Day ball from the field to the coach's box and that was really to. Try to get Josh Allen to the next level. Put Him in better situations. Because the bills they do use analytics. They realized after that cake walk of a schedule the first ten weeks that I mentioned they were staring at a very very tough schedule. The fourth toughest schedule of defense is the final seven weeks so with dabble in the box. The bills decided to Tambo. They would line up quicker. It was easier for debacle to kind of see what the defense was doing, and then you call. Call them more efficient play based on that effectively. It was taken more off, Josh. Allens plate and put more on his, and so you saw the bills. Their offense increased in pace, as you alluded to more three wide sets, a made a big difference, so I'm excited to see if that carries over and twenty twenty Josh Allen in the bills offense. They are going up right there in the face, a top five schedule of defenses, a top ten schedule pass defenses this year both projected to be. Significantly tougher than a year ago. I think it's important that we. Look at Josh Allen and hope that day ball even takes more office plate this year. Right more play action more throwing on first down more pre snap motion all the things that you can see across the board. Help quarterbacks in offenses and. You. Know when you look at Josh Allen. When he was best last year, it was throwing on first down. He was league average, which is good, but in terms of like success rate yards per pass attempt Josh Allen was well below the NFL average, throwing on second and third down, but you just have to make this guy's job much easier and I think when you look at play action. That's the very first step. His success rate went from forty two percent to fifty five percent when using play action yards per pass. Attempt increased to full yards. So make this job this job easier for Josh Allen. I think that's big. See what Stefan digs, bring the offense, but. Inevitably is going to help you mentioned Stefan Digs and we talked about Josh Allen. It's interesting, because if you just look at interception and touchdown, ratio or vice versa over the final eleven games of the season, Joshua, a world beater, fifteen touchdowns, only two picks, but I guess if you throw uncatchable balls, and you're launching them into the stadium or thrown into patches of green grass. You don't have to really run. The risk of having those balls picked off. By the way if. Reggie like Buffalo. We liked their head coach to. Fans of Buffalo, but it doesn't quite sound like it. Digs of course the big off season, acquisition and pro football focus actually ranked the bills receivers group is the fifth best in the League I'm sure we debate that if we feel the same way, but when you look at Stefan Digs, and what he brings over over eleven, hundred receiving yards, seventeen point, nine yards, perception, last season both careers highs, sixty percent context did catch rates in two thousand, sixteen fifty seven receptions from the ten, one thousand nine. Nine Yard level and when you look at what he can add to that receivers room alongside cool Beasley I know we've been a big fan of John, Brown and his ability to take the lid off the defense I mean Cole Beasley Underneath I mean he provides a security blanket. What kind of expectations can we have? I defined digs and I. Guess more importantly. Paint Willy be a team player Josh Allens having some of these problems with deep accuracy. So, bottom line Stefan digs gives Josh Allen, his best received target as a pro. So that's huge. We saw similar style receiver. That's not nearly as good and John Brown kind of flourish in last season with buffalo so. This is interesting. I don't know where John Brown fits. A, certainly I don't think can have as many targets many yards. There were stuff on digs. This shouldn't come as a surprise. Though right like buffalo was really trying to trade for digs last season. They couldn't work it out with Minnesota but digs is really interesting. He's got this rare ability to run good routes. He can take the top off the defense as you alluded to, it will be a better. Deep target is great with yards. After the catch you look at yards per outrun digs average two point seven last season. No other receiver on Buffalo's above to. He's gotten ability to line up anywhere. When he ran some of his routes outside the Hashes, he was number one in the NFL three and a half yards per route run so to me. You know aside from digs. Digs being a pretty complete receiver. I think the idea is that he's going to help Josh. Allen with some of shortcomings, and that's deep passing. This was interesting to me when I was looking at because feeling gets all the credit, but digs was responsible for over forty one percent of the vikings areas last year, just a ridiculous rate, but I'm going to be intrigued to see if digs and Allen, can kind of remain patient with each other, not get frustrated i. mean there are going to be times where digs is going to be wide open, and Alan and just GonNa flat out. So we can't see the temper tantrums. We've seen with digs in the past. He's not getting the ball I think it's important actually for McDermott enable to get digs the ball. Any way possible so that when Alan inevitably does miss him deep routinely, he doesn't explode, and you know because not getting the ball enough. I think that's gonna be and arounds. Quick passes. Try to get him involved in the offense early, so he doesn't reach that boiling point when when a deep balls missed so I, obviously Stefan digs is huge thing the other guy that we wanna look out for here as Dawson knocks like man crush you here. I think he's going to be really interesting. He's talented, so I think Dawson. Knox is GONNA make. Make a big leap here. In Buffalo of course did address the receiver room as well in the draft now not using high picks. They picked up Gabriel Davis from UCF in the Fourth Round Bring Hodgson's a guy who made us a lot of money on the college football side in a six round from Oregon State so intriguing room. Nonetheless, judging by what you've said there, we can expect Buffalo's I plan offense this season against New York jets to be a bubble screen as defined digs so good I'm going to write that down right now. Look for a prop. As far as the other side of the ball is concerned, we know this is more or less been Sean McDermott. Calling Card and last season Buffalo's defense was top five in the NFL and points per game allowed total yards per game, allowed and yards per play. What do we expect from the bill? Stop Unit knowing that. Hey, this has been the group that they've leaned on heavily over the last couple of years. Should we expect them to take a step forward this year or again? Do they just have to produce at the same level? Knowing that the offense is a few more playmakers? Right like Sean McDermott is a guy that we've kind of peg from. The onset is being guy that we like of savvy. People are finally in that camp that he's a really good coach. One I noticed early is his ability to get the most guys that aren't always supremely talented. You can just tell the preparation the scheme is this blue collar approach specifically the defense? He's big on teaching the fundamentals right. These things are why his defense has been only now you look in two thousand and nineteen. The bills defense did take a step back I know the efficiency rank with sixth, so people still think it's this also munit, but they dropped four spots year over year, despite facing the second easiest schedule of offense is the second easiest scheduled pass offenses. When you really dig into the defense, there were some areas or buffalo is a little vulnerable and. They still finished six, but you know a lot of it was because of how good they were in pass. Defense number one in explosive pass defense, top five defense pass efficiency. They really buckle down. If you look when you know, opposing offenses reached thirty yard line, and because right, we talk about this all time passing larger part of the game than ever before it outweighs how poor they were in run defense. Defense, but that's got to be fixed. Buffalo's eighteenth in Russia efficiency, twenty eighth and explosive run defense I think McDermott's hoping that he brought in some scheme fit guys that he's familiar with to help you know you have morio Addison in Vernon Butler. They're gonNA help along the defensive line. Those guys that he spent time with Carolina, they added Quinn. Jefferson AJ Klein Meta cabbage to the front seven they draft. AJ EMPANADA UP. So, you know. I think they're looking for help to stop the run up in as as a good guy who can set the edge. You're expecting a year to bump I. Think from at Oliver, who was fantastic getting to the quarterback? He was also an pressurized a rookie, and so even in the back end. You Bring Josh Norman I. Think they're hoping that he's reinvigorated. Reinvigorated a little bit. He's got his old coach. Assisting knows so I, think they? They added these little parts. That weren't overly expensive. They drafted some guys on the defensive side of the ball. I think they realized they weren't as good on defense. As some of the numbers indicated when you kind of project for twenty twenty and again I'm I. Think I'm nitpicking here. But. You know you want passing defense to replicate it successful season ago because that's your strength, but the competition. If you look is going to increase. Their is jest better quarterback on the schedule and I think a huge factor. We talk about for defenses now that it's a passing league is like how vital is getting to the quarterback. There's a reason pass rusher paid to. The large sums of money. What makes me a little nervous? If I were someone thinking buffalo returns to its two thousand eighteen form is despite facing schedule of opposing offensive line's last year. That ranked thirty first in pass protection efficiency buffalo is below average pressure rate below average knockdown rate slightly above average in hurry rate so. Just kind of off the cuff here, the to horrific offensive lines in their own division in Miami and the jets that Buffalo at the played four times. Both of those units have upgraded a little bit this offseason so I think it'll be difficult when we're know talking about a defense that will face better offense across the board, and they're still some underlying issues. I'm not quite sure they get back to the two thousand eighteen form, but again still going to be a very good defense. Well as we said, the bills haven't won a division since one, thousand, nine, hundred, ninety, five, and that particular football team was led by marv Levy Jim. Kelly Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith all in the hall of fame. Not Quite sure this bills roster has that. That many hall of famers on it, but should be a fun team to watch no doubt you mentioned the Miami. Dolphins and right now when you look at their win total at Fox bed at six and a half you do have to a dollar thirty to go under. Of course, the dolphins last season finished five and eleven, but like much different football team over the second half of the schedule than what we saw through the first seven or eight Games, the last AFC title for them came back in two thousand eight season. We're Tom Brady happened to miss fifteen games with a knee injury. And when you look at the dolphins, they've been the model of an average franchise. Seven wins a season over the last decade schedule sets up I. DON'T WANNA. Call it relatively favorably there obviously some challenges in there, but I think paying the biggest question with this team that everybody's going to ask Ryan Fitzpatrick to to how long does it take us to see the talented rookie quarterback out of Alabama assumed the reins franchise quarterback I think a while. I do and You know when you're looking at Ryan Fitzpatrick. You're looking at to a and you're looking at the new. C., Chan Gailey. To me when you're factoring in experience and system, familiarity, health even the cohesion of the offensive line, the strength of schedule and I think the inability to be as hands on as you would like this off season. This is GonNa be Ryan Fitzpatrick job out of the gate and. Yup I try not to listen to too many. People with when it comes to sports I'd like to have my own ideas and thoughts, but it is good to kind of lean on some sharp people. And I have heard a lot of people being extremely down in Miami. He's offense because of this new system under Chan Gailey and I personally don't think it's as large of a deal as most you're making it out to be. Don't get me wrong like this isn't going to be an elite dolphins offense. But you look at Miami. They finished twenty seventh inefficiency last season, and in twenty twenty they faced the most difficult schedule of opposing defenses in the most difficult schedule, passing passing defenses so like this isn't going to be a top ten offense but I. don't think it's going to be train wreck that a lot of savvy minds think and are projecting like to me the entire goal twenty twenty s to kind of see growth, see plan come together if you can improve this year, then all of a sudden and twenty, twenty one with tour, and even more draft, capital and cap space. That's when they make their move to me. The one thing that nobody seems to mention when they're talking about the dolphins offense. Being down is really why. Chat O'Shea the former C. was fired. It's because the offense was too complex for the young guys last season Brian Floor is like quickly realized his mistake, and he said like Hey, I. Don't have Tom Brady. I don't have a veteran unit. We need to make things easier. Incomes chain Galley. He actually coached Ryan Fitzpatrick for five seasons combined in Buffalo, New York so yeah Fitzpatrick. Actually had his best season as a pro in two thousand fifteen, Chan, Gailey, so he's very familiar with Chan system and Chan system is also far less complex and he spent years at the college level, so I think he's GonNa actually help to a transition as well and. And, if kind of dig into Chan galleys past, he's kind of helped and innovate, bring forward. You know some new concepts whether it's the pistol offense. He's also a big spread guy, which you know, those two things kind of compliment to a strength, so I think if you know Miami can prove a little bit on last season's efficiency ranking while playing the most difficult schedule of defense in the NFL. That's a win in my book for this offense, but I just think Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick they've spent five seasons together. There isn't going to be this massive transition period that everyone thinks in my mind. Regardless pain of WHO's calling the plays, or who's the starting quarterback under center? We know one of the dolphins biggest issues. Last season was along the offensive line, and they made it pretty apparent that that was going to be their focus. When you pick three offensive linemen, the first four rounds. We know they had a glut of picks to try and do so, but when look at this Miami Dolphins team whether it's some of the veterans. Fortify that unit or guys like Austin Jackson out of USC Robert Out of Louisiana Lafayette and Solomon Kinley Out of Georgia. Can we realistically expect this? Dolphins offensive line to take a step forward. Given the fact that it's not real hard to try and show improvement given what we saw for extended stretches last year. So you're being very kind. This was arguably the happier gentler more optimistic. Just don't suck type of podcast. We'll get into more than negatively and pessimism. By the time we get the division six seventy. This the the dolphins arguable had the worst unit with their offense of line of any in the NFL last season. If you kind of break this down five of the six linemen that took the Moshe snaps, finished one, hundred, forty, six, or worse in pass blocking win rate as a team. There were six percent worse in pass block. Win Rate then the second worst team in the Cincinnati Bengals so whether it was Josh. Rosen or Ryan Fitzpatrick under center last season, Miami allowed a pressure in two and a half seconds or less on thirty three percent of the quarterback drawbacks this offensive line. was so bad. There were actually incapable of doing anything couldn't create holes in the run game, and as you mentioned, Kristie goes out spends three of his first one hundred eleven picks on the offensive line. Left Tackle Austin Jackson might have the most upside of any tackle taken a drop only twenty. There's some concern with his strength. Hands need work. But he might have a shot start day one. The hunt is going to have a chance to compete at the starting right tackle spot before being probably in my mind is gonNA. Getting kicked a guard, but we'll see. In Free Agency? They splashed a few bucks on the old line. As well they bring in Ted. Karras at center I think he's more than serviceable. He's an upgrade their last season with David. Andrews, going down in New England. He took his first real snaps as a pro so i. think that's a positive. They inked Eric Flowers to a big deal to play left guard I think the perception is Eric Flowers while he's horrible, but if you notice, they moved him to guard last season in Washington and he was the best. Best Lineman on the team. So I think at his new position. Right we. We know he's not a tackle at this point his career, but coming home to Miami, getting kicked inside the guard. I think that's an upgrade. The question becomes is can those new pieces who you're projecting to potentially vie for starting spots at left tackle and right tackle with this limited off season is that a realistic chance will see? I just know the talent of those guys are probably better than the veteran guys that they have on the unit. Seeming it's not a ringing endorsement free the offensive line or any of the Dolphin skill position players that Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing yards last year, but two hundred forty three. Four rushing touchdowns. I'm not putting Ryan Fitzpatrick in the same classes Lamar Jackson is a game-breaker. Every time you get the ball in his hands, either so does weird there. There's no. There's no doubt about that, but a rating. That's nowhere close to what Lamar has especially in the speed factor, so if the offense of wine get settled, of course you begin to look at the dolphins skill, position players, and we know they went out this off season and focused that running back bring in Jordan Howard Matt Brita since the rushing offense, as we mentioned wrinkle last in the NFL two, thousand, nine, thousand, nine, hundred, as far as the wide receiver room Devante Parker, I think both of us extremely high on coming out of Louisville dealt with myriad. Myriad of injuries, but when he's on the football field, this is a bona fide number one I think for me. Paying the real question comes up is who becomes secondary or tertiary receivers helped Preston. Wilson isn't going to be healthy Albert Wilson. We saw missing time last year, and they bring in a variety of other guys to go along with your team. Grin and Alan hearns, Gary Jennings Junior Mac Collins. Ahah Ford. Somebody else has to emerge. You. Take pressure off a Devante Parker in the passing game. We got the seven dollar word of the day. Tertiary Love It. Not, House this case. This is still the preseason podcast. We haven't had a chance to take. Real wraps stumbling over words. The vocabulary is not quite where it needs to be. We're going to have to bear with US until we get to game speed around these Paul. Absolutely we've. We've been out of out of work here for about three months, so it's tough getting back in. It always says it's fun though weapons. I think these are interesting I. It's it's. It's a wild group. Right? I think when you kind of break down each player. And you look at their talent, and their traits with speed and size, and leaping ability and quickness and run after the catch ability. It's a really undervalued group and you mentioned Devante Parker a first round. Pick finally started eating right. Any actually likes his head coach. Now he's got the scary combination of size and speed and athleticism. He was the number one receiver in the NFL. In passer rating on contested catches last season if you are a fantasy guy from week seven through seventeen. He was the number two wide receiver behind Michael. Thomas. Everyone raved about Preston Williams last year. He was the undrafted kid out of Colorado. State probably would have been you know a third round pick, but he had some off the field issues. He tore his ACL. He's progressing nicely. They're not going to rush back, so he may miss the first couple of games, so that means I think at least early on Devante Parker, going to continue where he left off, Albert Wilson started to look himself in late November after recovering from the dislocated hip to Kim grant is a guy. that. The saints actually clocked at his pro day at a four one forty, and we kind of know is impact on special teams, but apparently if you've been following his social media's all, he's done off in this off. Season is just working on his route running. It's pretty impressive. I think there's a lot of depth here. You still have Allen hearns using be battling with Isaiah Ford for that fifth spot. Even. Get sick came on last season. Eighteen percent of the target shares from week ten on. He's just another athletic long pass catcher rumor is he's added about twelve pounds, so he can actually compete and not be a complete liability as a blocker, the running back room I hate that they moved on from Kenyan Drake, but. No Drake love the dray of the drake, there really wasn't any talent in the backfield once they made that move and if you look at Miami's run game, thirty seconds success rate nearly ten percent below league average. They go out and they got Jordan Howard. No one seems like be high on Jordan Howard. This is gonNA shock some people. But you look, he was drafted the same year as the suddenly beloved Derrick Henry Jordan Howard despite playing four or less games than Henry and playing against playing behind. Lesser Offensive. Line has more rushing yards in their career than than Henry does and I think you went out and you gotta back. With a little kind of Burston versatility with with Matthew Brita because they decided to pass the Andrea Swift, so I like that. That duo there so it's just really interesting to see the perception on Jordan Howard I think he's going to have a big role in this offense, and then if you can get Breda going as that change of pace back, doing couple things out of the backfield, catching the balls it's it's certainly an upgraded unit. Pretty wild for to hear some of those numbers talking about Jordan Howard overall career rushing numbers compared to derrick. Henry, we know the kind of deal Derrick Henry commanded this off. Season is the titans were able to get a long term deal Don Howard more or less been passed around. We'll see if you can find a home in Miami and regained some of that form. We saw when he was. The bears lead back as far as Miami is concerned. Concerned on the defensive side of the Ball Josh Boyer Replaces Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator I was floored by some of these numbers pay not that the scoring defense ranked last in the NFL in two thousand and nineteen, the only team to allow more than thirty points per game, but when you look at how Miami has performed defensively from two, thousand, seventeen, eighteen and nineteen, the team's defenses yielded a whopping thirteen hundred and twenty points the worst three year. Year stretch in franchise history. They allowed more points last year than they did. In two thousand seven, when they went one and fifteen now I know the game's different, but just try and wrap your head around some of those things. They spent a ton of money trying to go out there and get veterans game breakers. Were you happy with the offseason moves into? You think some of that talent will be realized right out of the gate with the dolphins. Dolphins change in philosophy on this side of the ball spent the most in league history. If you're looking at the big puffy fake number for an off-season, most of that money was on defense, and then you look at Chris and Brian floors they double down and added five defensive players in the first five rounds of the draft. We know Brian Floors Defensive Guy. He is ultra competitive. You know prior to join the dolphins we saw floor is basically. Dismantle boy wonder there Sean McVeigh's offense in the Super Bowl, so I know it ate at him and. Seeing, his defense, finish dead, last inefficiency dead last in pass, efficiency dead last in pressure rate any face. The fourth easiest schedule of offense is in that process. He knew he needed to change and I think where there is some optimism for the Dolphins Defense in two thousand twenty floors now has some guys that fittest scheme right and they also have experienced also have young guys with talent like Wilkins and Baker and saving Howard. This will be year to assist them and a while there was this. Tank for to a kind of thing going on, and I won't call it that because they did win five games in a lost season, the defense was trot out. Guys and you know trying to find different players to see if they could find a diamond in the rough, that could potentially contribute for future seasons and I think they did that for a couple of guys. Right Nick, need them. They found I think he's going to be a guy. That at least contributes this year. We know like versatility and being. Being able to move, guys around is important in this Bella Check Flora's type system, so they even discovered Eric. Rowe is a more capable safety than corner, so I think those are the kind of things they were doing on the defensive side of the ball. Twenty eight different players started on defense for for Miami. They were the third most injured defense and again they're trying to mix and match to see what they had so between being inexperienced in being a mash unit with injuries and and very little talent. I think there's a lot of optimism here. You talk about poor lock as well taught. The dolphins only recovered three of their opponents, seventeen fumbles league average in two thousand, nine, hundred forty seven percent defensive recovery rate, so they should have recovered eight instead of three. You're talking about five more turnovers. That's going to impact games so I don't think the defense is going to become a lead overnight. Overnight. You're just looking again for relative improvement, right? Just be average, and I think even for this season there is it only took US thirty seven minutes or thereabouts into the first preseason podcast of the season to get just be average jumped out of you. Buddy got scares me I'm at thirty four minutes here so hopefully. You didn't mess something up in the recording process I in that. Ballpark I'm looking at the clock because I actually didn't start my clock on time, so at least I was plus or minus three minutes. Proud of myself. Okay, perfect so. Even, I think bad is good this year right if you go from being one of the worst defenses by along mile to kind of competing in that twenty two to twenty five range. I think that's going to be pretty good so to me. There's more talent defensively. There's more experience. There's a greater familiarity with floors this scheme and then you're going to have the likely positive regression both the injury and turnover front defensively. If you're looking at the defense and all three levels, we know you mentioned what the secondary looks like the big spend. Their I'm Byron Jones, we know the big names that they added you. Look at the linebacking core potential upside with Jerome Baker McMillan. Which group are you most optimistic about? In which one do you have? The biggest concerns about headed into the twenty twenty season I think you're really happy with the corners that you have and some versatility there at safety. We'll see what they decide to do with that back F again. Brian floor is like really I thought for style guy, so you know he wants to be able to go. Go snap snap where he can have his free safety, come down and cover the slot and vice versa. The linebacker core is interesting, a couple of young guys there with rake on McMillan and Baker you're hoping those guys can take the next step Vince Beagle. They absolutely love. They just stole him in a trade for Kiko Alonzo from the saints, the Interior of the line is where they're hoping there some improvement because they were very bad. Stopping the run, so you won't Wilkins to take that year to step really what they're hoping for, and they're not quite sure they have it on the roster yet. They really need a true edge rusher. Men They Lose Taco Charlton. They chose to lead a move on. It was a great cheap pickup for beach in Kansas City. So features happy about that move. I just think next year you're going to look at a real onus on going out and getting a pass rusher. That's kind of the one one area that concerns me a little bit for the dolphins this year. Being able to get that pressure again we have seen. Whether it's flora's or Bella check. They usually get pressure by scheme, so let's see if if that will happen in twenty twenty again van Ginkel comes back from from injury, so they're hoping to use him in pass. Rush situation so hopefully you can up the pass. Rush rate here in in twenty twenty. Should be an interesting team to watch the dolphins benefit by getting an extra home game that they otherwise would've lost with the London Games off the docket and we saw the win total respond accordingly. They're very curious to see how this team gets price in the market week to week and more importantly how they perform which I guess takes us in a logical direction to a team. That's a let's call it a minor change pain to the face of their organization in the New England Patriots whose win total at Fox sits at nine. You do have to lay a dollar twenty five to go over. The AFC division favorites, twelve and four a season ago of course won the division before losing to the titans in the wildcard around when you look at some of the numbers that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were able to accomplish there, simply mind boggling. Straight division titles and NFL record seventeen consecutive seasons with ten plus wins also NFL record, they've been above five hundred versus the AFC in every season since divisional realignment in two thousand and two and last season marked the first time since two thousand nine that the Patriots failed to secure a first round by the playoffs I can go on and on, but I think the biggest question that you have with new. England obviously, this season Cam Newton takes over for Tom Brady. We know cameras on the market a lot longer. Longer than he probably would have liked didn't get a long term deal or guaranteed starter post. I'm not GonNa say the Patriots Bringing Cam. Newton is a reflection of Jarret Stidham, but when you have the chance to bring in a former MVP and cam, and you don't have questions about his health released on the surface. What do we think are logical expectations and assumptions? We can make about cam learning a new offense and a new franchise. They very different culture, taking over for arguably the greatest quarterback ever played a position. You're right. We can't make any assumptions and I think that's big I know when he was signed I. Think it's evident that he's got a start, but there is a rumor report that came out. Just a couple of weeks ago. That said Hey. This is an open competition were not sure. Cams GonNa know the offense well enough, and it could be stems job week one. There's a lot of rumors floating around out there. There's also a lot of people that are talking about Cam not being one hundred percent healthy. I don't know if that's the case. I think he looks pretty good. I. Think what we're going to hear from now until week one is you know from journalists and media, members and three surgeries in three years. Who knows if he's healthy I just? There's a reason the contract is literally zero risk for New England. So whatever you thought about doing dirt's did him under center signing Camden make the Patriots worse in fact when I look at our power ratings, we increase them. So like from what I am told here just on the injury front the Liz Frank Foot injury. Going to be fine from that. That is a something that can take twelve weeks to heal just enough to play through pain worse. Case situations you one hundred percent healthy in a year. Cam is not genetically average, right? We're now like ten months into this. This foot issue I. Don't think it's a problem you know. We've seen Dr Chow kind of rate publicly that this is a thing the to shoulder surgeries I think you want to clarify those because they just get tossed out there as him. Having potentially issues with a shoulder was initially like this makeshift job to the rotator cuff. That was a quick fix surgery to try to get him back up, you know the second one was to the same shoulder that was supposed to be the long term fixer. So it's not like he had these intensive shoulder surgeries, and then completely blew it out again and had to fix the same exact thing. That's not what happened so to me when I looked at Cam last season in the two games that he played, the shoulder was a positive thing because he couldn't really step into any throws. Because the foot injury, it was all shoulder and he seemed fine. I think you have to look at Cam what he was before the injuries. I think that's kind of what we're potentially going to see here. As he learns the new system when he was fully healthy, the first eight games a two thousand eighteen years. Light it up right. It was better than some of two thousand fifteen MVP seasons, and if you look camps I games in two thousand eighteen, while learning a new system under norv Turner, which is which is important dimension, right new system, then new system now completed a career, high sixty seven percent of his throws over that stretch. The panthers offense with eighth in passing success rate fifth in explosive pass rate over that eight game stretch six into record. Then, the rotator cuff injury happens. He tries playing through it. He was not very successful doing that. I think there's two things that we absolutely no CAM is at this point extremely motivated to prove people wrong. His work ethic through this like last ten months has been through the roof, and in second thing is bill check in his offense? Coaches are going to put cam in the best position possible to succeed if you're a major, it's fan and you're kind of. Looking at this offense, it's going to be wildly different, obviously, because defenses have to defend the CAM. Newton baked just much differently than what they've seen. In Layman's terms, there's going to be like more defenders around the box than in the back end in coverage, the absolute inverse of how you defended Tom, Brady, so you know you're looking at this as cam. The passer that Tom Brady is in was absolutely not, but he can pass the. The ball very well especially when he's healthy enough to force defenses to have to put more defenders in the box, and so I just think that we're going to see a motivated cam. Newton being put in the best position possible, and that is why he signed with New England, because he knows they're going to put him in the best situation possible, and that's going to mean potentially big things for him moving forward if he is. Flourishing in this system. Well motivated Cam Newton is one thing, and you obviously hope he's got a chance to go out there when the job and prove that he can get back to those two thousand eighteen levels mentioned if he's healthy, but does he have the weapons he needed on this roster. We saw the Patriot receiving core last year. Completely underwhelmed an uncharacteristic by Jewish settlement, probably cost them that playoff game against the titans wasn't healthy, and you know with the wear and tear on him. Nikiel Harry didn't have the chance to find the continuity in his rookie campaign. That New England obviously thought. Thought very highly of different where they drafted him out of Arizona State. You look around in that room for difference makers, playmakers, and we'll get to the running game in a minute. Does New England have the weapons they need in the passing game to help aid camps transition from Carolina in the system. He ran there to Josh. mcdaniels in Patriots would like to run this season. Let's be candid here. New England doesn't have a good group of weapons. There is not one receiver tight end returning that eclipsed one point nine yards per outrun, not one receiver tied end returning. Had positive value over league average at that position, and that includes Julian Element. If you go back to last season from the Baltimore game. In Week nine through the Tennessee wildcard game, the Patriots- had a forty percent passing success rate over that period five percent below league average the. Simply, put here. The weapons are like bottom of the barrel. If I'm going glass half full. The weapons that are returning could perform better than you know kind of what we last saw. You have a rookie and Jacoby Meyers last year who flashed in the preseason? He might be a nice contributor. In year to Julian Atl Menu, mentioned with the massive drop, but he's playing through an abdomen injury that required surgery. They got nothing out of Mohammed to because he had an ankle injury that. That also required offseason surgery Nikiel Harry got a late start to the season because of an injury that landed him on the reserve list until November, so we kind of know how hard it is for rookie receivers to get acclimated into a system now think about a guy that's missing the first ten games and camp all that like I think he probably has a very good year to. New England was the third most injured offense. In the NFL, they're the six most injured receiver group, the most injured running back group so. You know we kind of project. Some positive aggression on the injury front there. If Cam shows, he can be more mobile. It's going to make jobs I think of the receivers far easier when they're running routes sensing less bodies in the secondary than they've ever seen before with Tom Brady quarterback, which is interesting, you know the run game I think should improve and. And you are losing your all World Offensive Line Coach Dante ski that's scary, but this will be. Isaiah wins true sophomore season Marcus. Cannon battled injuries all last season David Andrews the starting center misty entire year. He's back. The depth along the offensive line is better, and I think the one thing we made note of last season. Todd the Patriots while being. Very forward, thinking and analytical. They also loved to place math mauch football with with with a fullback. and. They use lots of twelve personnel. Both their fullbacks were injured and missed large portions of last season, so they couldn't really use those bulk packages. Even everything I mentioned there. The Patriots Offensive Line finished ninth and adjusted line yards fifth in justice, accurate allowed. They were below average eighteenth in win rate, but again I think that improves with a healthier unit so to me. It shouldn't surprise anybody if the offensive line is top ten especially when you're projecting out for twenty twenty. They're going to face the second easiest. Easiest schedule of pass rushers so to me. The offensive line needs to be the strength of this offense if CAM. Newton is healthy and can provide that run element defenses are GONNA have to put more men in the box. It's going to open up the past game and help some of these weapons that we think might not be as great as other teams have. It's pretty interesting when you look at the Patriots. Running back room this season, Sony Michelle clearly wasn't the same back last year that he was in his rookie season, two, thousand, eight, hundred, nine, hundred twelve yards, and two hundred forty seven carries, saw, his average dropped from four and a half yards of pop to three point seven. Obviously, there's plenty of depth in that room and. And you look at. James Rex burkhead Brandon bolden Damian Harris Jj Taylor. We know white has emerged as a pass catcher. We'll see how he gets utilized with CAM or Jarret Stidham starting quarterback, so patriots of course GonNa need playmakers to emerge defensively when we look at new, England, that was their calling card especially early on in the season. Although we saw that unit, really take. Take on water as a strength of schedule improved, they were the NFL's number, one scoring defense, total, defense and third down defense, but what's crazy about the patriots pain and I'm not sure if this is an indictment of the pressure, the defense was under, or the offense is inability to score. They were twelve no last year when they allowed fewer than twenty points Owen five when. When they gave up more than twenty plus includes their playoff game. How do we see New England's defense continuing to evolve? We know that we're bill. Belichick has fingerprints all over one particular unit on this football team. Absolutely insane juries at I don't need a defensive coordinator I'm going to be even more hands on I'm gonNA shoulder that responsibility as well and they were fantastic, but. Bottom line. The defense is going to be good again I don't believe there is good as their number one efficiency ranking that they ended last season with, and I know strength. The schedules included in the efficiency metrics, but it's rare that you can face the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The easiest schedule passing offense is the easiest schedule of passed protecting offensive lines, the second easiest schedule of Red Zone offenses. That's what the Patriots Defense Face, last season and something. We've kind of talked about. About over the years is trending metrics. You typically want to wait games heavier that have occurred more recently because that kind of reflects the current makeup inform, and you're kind of gradually lessening. What happened say sixteen weeks prior in week one now, obviously week-to-week, there's these anomaly performances, and you never wanna over just off sixty minutes of football, but trending metrics are vital. I think to kind of capture the current form so when you're looking at waited. Defense New England actually finished fourth inefficiency. And, you know Kinda why I'm nitpicking here is we heard todd from for media in journalists that this was the greatest defense in the history of the League after eight. My I. Don't get me. Don't get me started. Actually someone who bet the jets on Monday night football against. No one was better and. I think we kind of did nothing but bang the table last season and say hey, there's there's just no way it was kind of the one time in what feels like a decade where we kind of yelled to the heavens that New England was overrated and they actually were. But you look over the I like eight weeks of the season. New England didn't plan offense that finished better than twentieth inefficiency. Their average opponent offensive rank was twenty seven over that stretch. You just kind of look at this right? The murderers row of quarterbacks. The Patriots face the first eight weeks. Dot, an injured Big Ben Josh Rosen Luke Falk Josh Allen a less than one hundred percent Colt McCoy. You had a rookie. Daniel Jones, then you had you know your boy. I game vaccine, Ghost Mono Sam Darnold and then you had a struggling Baker Mayfield so. You, don't get me wrong like new. England's Defense Hamlet Business in those games, only a lot of thirty four percent offensive plays degrade successful the eight weeks. But, I just you know to me. I didn't see I didn't love where they were kind of projecting in trending. You look at what they faced the final eight weeks of the season when New England steps up in class, they face offenses with an average efficiency rank of fourteenth. and. They're passing success. Rate Defense gets beat up. They'll have forty six percent pass great successful over the final eight regular season Games, one percent below league average does about sixteen percent shift downwards as competition rose so I'm mentioning this. Because the schedule of offense that New England faces this year. They're projected to improve by our numbers by about thirty five percent. When you look at this Patriots, defense. They obviously had a lot of losses or any that concerns you whether it's Danny Shelton. Kyle annoyed Jimmy Collins Orlando Roberts Doron harmon. All five of those guys ironically enough end up with former coordinators on the Patriot staff going either the lions dolphins. Is there one of those guys that you think could provide a bigger hole than the Patriots will lead you to believe or do you feel? Hey, it's rinse. Rinse repeat New England it's the sum of all parts rather than evaluate any individual. That's kind of the notion. Right that bell checks defense is is about the sum of its parts and the system in the scheme. Get the most out of guys if they do their job, and it just becomes this plug and play, and that the defense is going to be able to absorb all of these departures, and it's all Bella check one hundred percent. To Me Danny Shelton Doron Harmon Kyle van Noy were key Cox, and if you kind of Look Kyle van. Noy Had one hundred twenty percent more pressures than the second best pressure guy returning for New England this season. I know. The Patriots drafted Joshu Out in Michigan with the sixtieth pick. They think help in that area. Is this pass rush specialist this season? We raved about Doron harm during our free agency podcast series back in March. He had the second. Most coverage snaps. Patriots safety last season, only a lot of thirty three passer rating gave up a league best zero point one three yards per coverage nap among qualifying safeties Danny Shelton has great out a top thirty seven interior linemen, according to Pf back-back season so. Those guys those losses are going to be felt a little bit. I think when we're looking at at you. Know this patriots defense, there is going to be a little bit of a regression. The kicker here though taught opposite of the Patriots injury-plagued offense in two thousand nineteen, the Patriots Defensive One of the healthiest in the League, so you might even see a little health regression on that side of the ball I i. just think we're looking at just a slight tick down defensively from New England here. Should be a team that is what is interesting to watch this season plenty of intrigue around them, of course with Cam Newton, and for what feels like the first time Pain Ages New England will have they've always had a target on their back, but his schedule that the NFL schedule makers having exactly handpicked for them, or so it feels where they'll get challenged plenty games in prime time. We'll see if. The changing of the guard at quarterback allows new. England continued doing what they've done. And that's just winning the NFC east over and over and over again. A team that hasn't won the NFC east in seems like an eternity would be the New York jets who find their win total at Fox at six and a half flat, seventy-nine nine a season ago. Good enough for third in the division. They, of course they're seeking their first AFC's title since two thousand two back then Sam. DARNOLD was all of five years old, losing record and four straight seasons. Only the browns have a longer active streak in that department, and when you look at their playoff, drought got nine straight seasons without making the postseason to third longest active drought in the NFL ahead of only the browns and bucks now we're not all glass half empty with the New York. York jets this team did go six into their final eight games after starting the season one and seven and going six and two down the stretch, only the Ravens won more games from week ten through the end of the regular season. I think the biggest question you have to ask. If you're trying to handicap. The jets painting create a Realistic Outlook on the twenty twenty season. How is the relationship between Sam Darnold a store starting quarterback and Adam geeses head coach and year to continue to evolve in feel. We should believe they need to show early on that. Hey, this thing is working, and the jets finally have a starting quarterback and head coach combination that can make this franchise relevant. Let, six and two you mentioned is the only reason gay kept this job so I'm not sure if jets fans were awfully happy about that. I was in without question. My least favorite team to dig into this off season has been the New York jets. There is just so many variables and like this wide range of projections. If Adam gays. Gets his head out of his ass and has a clue again like he did when he was. You Know Win playoff games with temperatures in Denver. And Sam Darnold kind of makes this third year leap. The jets could be a fringed playoff team. But if gas you know, keeps being difficult and trying to fit square pegs into round holes, in Sam, darnold looks like twenty-three-year-old, not being put in ideal situations, you have four or five win jets team especially when you look at schedule Far and away the most difficult schedule Naef AFC belongs to the jets, the second largest increase in schedule difficulty year over year in the NFL, and even in terms of miles traveled the season for the jets. That's well above league average to so. GIESSEN darnold Kinda half to simultaneously I think become better versions of themselves as competition rises, or this season's going to be an absolute disaster, and there's hope for Sam Darnold I. Know a lot of people don't believe that I know there are. Folks that came out and said Hey. You know when you look at the first two seasons of quarterback in their makeup and their numbers. This will kind of tell you if there's there's. Any potential there and some of those numbers don't look great. For me the arm towns there. He's only twenty three years old. I think this is going to surprise people, but despite this being year three, he's actually going to be younger than rookie quarterback. Joe Borough. So you know if you look at Sam Darnold. And when he's put an ideal situations. He's already above. Average quarterback and I was looking at some of these numbers when Sam darnold kept clean in the pocket, he justin completion percentage of eighty one percent is higher than Patrick Mahomes last year. When Adam Gates allowed Sam Darnold to use play action. his passer rating was seventeen points Ir, his pass per attempt increased two point three yards. The problem was Dr only through with like a play fake element, twenty four percent of the time twentieth highest rate in the League so I think as needs to use more play action especially with young quarterback when Gates let Sam darnold operate from shotgun. His passer rating was eighty one points higher. The jets you shotgun three percent below league average so. You know he just wasn't put in great situations. My feeling is if darnold can be kept clean. And when he was using play action, and he was allowed to pass from shotgun, he looked pretty damn good to me. He just wasn't enough of those positive situations. Then you look, and the poor guy was pressured a league high forty two percent of the time on dropbox. Thank. God you know, Joe. Douglas comes in. It's his first full off season and immediately spends resources to kind of rectify that issue goes outside Connor McGovern at center. He allowed one sack last season finished eleventh in pass, blocking efficiency huge upgrade over Jonathan Harrison picks up a veteran guard and Greg Van Roten finished top twenty among all guards in pass blocking efficiency. Then he goes out spends draft. Draft capital on what he believes and potentially I believe is the best left tackle prospect in the draft six, seven, three, hundred sixty five pound MCI back in Louisville. So you know you need guys to protect your bass as your best asset end to me. I think this is a started helping Sam Darnold. It's just now on Adam. Gates at this point to make same job easier. and to me, it's it's clear if you look at what Sam Darnold face with last season. He, wasn't he had a really difficult job and to me like is seemingly. Dot Morgan's over the years you know. He just loves running the ball into the line of scrimmage for some reason on second long. This is something I think we've talked about todd the last few years. Even when he's in Miami, his first year with the jets case runs the ball, second and ten or more, the third highest rate in the NFL, and so like aside from the obvious that it's not smart to like waste one of your three downs. The problem is the jets were twenty seventh and I down success rate sixth worst on first down in the league. So you know you're on first down. Gaze pisses away second down now you have this young quarterback. Sam darnold staring at third mile eight point one yards to go is the jets average third-down distance last season? I. You know. I just think this is really difficult to kind of Throw Sam. Darnold into this mess and you're hoping that gaces a little bit better this year. You look also. Fourth most injured offensive line I just think there is no injured receiver group I. There was nothing that was favoring Sam Darnold last season. They'll just put it that way. Well when you look at the way, the jets have gone about it. You mentioned the offensive line was the question I was GonNa ask, but I think you hit on it. In great depth, there may as well focus a little bit on the weapons, lady and bell of course was the big signing last off season we know the back, and forth between him and Adam Gates, but bell four yards at touch, an eighty three point three scrimmage yards per game both were career lows. We know. He sat out the season before the team loses Robbie Anderson. The panthers this off season. He led the team with over three thousand receiving yards and twenty touchdowns over four seasons. Seasons Backer Jamison crowder, seventy eight catches, hundred twenty two targets, but just eight hundred thirty three yards. They add Bershad Perriman fourth team in four years, but comes off his best season since two thousand sixteen when he was in Baltimore. Averaging almost eighteen yards, a reception draft Denzel mims and I think pain for me. One of the more intriguing battles as far as skill position town is concerned as at tight end. We're Ryan Griffin became the man, but both you and I were extremely high Chris Herndon, he just happened to miss last season after a great rookie campaign dealing with a myriad of injuries. Absolutely no doubt about it. Let's start with Flavian. Bell I mean. Brutal you're hoping. His production increases when you look at value over average player at running back, bell finished last season seventeen percent below average running back. He was paid the third highest rate, so that's not very good. The the lines bad thirty first and ingested line yards, so they weren't creating space for him, but bell wasn't really doing much after first contact fifty first among running backs in yards after contact per rush, so you're hoping better line Belva more familiar with the system in year two and that he's a little more comfortable. Comfortable right? Maybe he's in better shape after being out of football for a season. So that's GonNa be you know I think beneficial? There's a massive uptick obviously in difficulty for Sam. Darnold in terms of passing defense is faced were also projecting run defense scheduled to be you know one of the five easiest on bell has to be a factor this season. You mentioned Jamison crowder. You know. I think he's. He's a serviceable I. Rec-, reason, good slot receiver Denzel. mims comes in kind of a freakish combination of size and speed. He's got a ridiculous catch radius, but he's raw rookie receiver right hard time impact in the game especially now with everything going on this off season Bouchard, paramount came in. Monster at the end of last season in this fun gun, Tampa offense both Evans in Godwin. Injured in you know so paramount was kind of that guy i. think he you know. He proved himself. So you know to me? The jets are relying on some some interesting parts. Here you're you're prey Denzel mims contributes. You got to pray that paramount. Kind of looks like he did towards the end of last season Quincy noon was we know is out for the season with the neck. Injury Chris Herndon is really interesting. Everyone is raving about him heading into last year after a great rookie season, he was suspended the first four weeks. Then he battles these nagging hamstring injuries I think he is a really really interesting. Pass catching option this year especially maybe late rounds of your fantasy draft, so I'm I'm in on Chris earned so the weapons are going to potentially be healthier. There is certainly more upside the weapons that they. They have this year and again it just comes down to gaze pudding. Sam Darnold and better situations going to be an interesting team. I think I'm higher on the jet than some, but it was interesting to hear you outline the the possibility for upside as fringe playoff contender things break the right way, but if this train goes off the tracks, you could be talking about an absolute dumpster fire in the jets, looking for yet another new head coach to try and take them where they need to go with a young quarterback. Who I. Think is just barely scratching the surface. In, Sam Darnold. At least paying for the first time in recent memory, the AFC staffers, all sorts of injury, because you don't have a massive overwhelming, favourite, and I think when you look at these rosters up and down all four. These teams that we've discussed in great detail have questions. The biggest question for me is which coaching staff is able to create that continuity to allow his team to get out of the gates quickly. And maybe put a little bit more pressure on the competition, so for big teams broken down in great detail as only pain, insider can do. Of course you can follow him on twitter at Paine. Insider, I'm todd firm and you can follow me there and more importantly follow the podcast twitter account at bet the board and encourage you to read all of the great articles that you've seen published on the site talking about strength schedule analysis, not based off of last year's results, but more on this season's projected win totals scheduling spots, one of our staff writers did an outstanding job and tremendous series, but paying this podcast is over bef- until we have a best bet and as always our. Our best bet is brought to you. Courtesy of Fox were the biggest name in sports is now the biggest name in sports betting now available for Real Money Wagering in New Jersey and Pennsylvania encourage you to check out the Fox dot website, plenty of great promotions, specials, and all sorts of deposit incentives, but you can still download the APP from absolutely anywhere and keep a prize of all the latest and greatest line movement, not only in the NFL, but all of your other favorite sports pay where we going for the best bet of this first preview podcasts for the twenty twenty season friend. It's going to be a prop and I think that's going to be something. Maybe we discuss in. Other iterations of this podcast there will be some win totals. Obviously, we're not betting eight win totals, but with those there is an element that. AH GAMER TO GETS missed. Now I don't think that is likely right Lee. Just make simply too much money for this. To probably happen, but you could have a scenario where possibly team gets infected in too many guys. Catch cove in in your out for a week at a time I I just think there is some elements to the win totals that are difficult enough as it is because you need a larger edge to invest in those tire money up for five and six months now all. All of a sudden you know you MISSA game. A game gets off the schedule and those become void, so we will have win totals or twos that we really liked that. We think there's enough edge to overcome those elements, but a lot of the props I. Think is what will attack and Fox bet as you alluded to. Has One of those and there is some juice. Juice attached to this but I think for us. It's all about an edge, and you're looking at the dolphins week one starting quarterback. We WanNa go with Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's minus three hundred, which indicates your break. Even point is seventy five percent Ryan Fitzpatrick going to get the the first shot here especially with everything that we broke down with the dolphins. He is Ben Chan Gailey. GAILEY system for five seasons. We've talked about the left. Tackle and right tackle situation for the dolphins being up in the air, potentially starting rookie guys I. Don't think you're throwing into that situation early on. We know at this point. He looks healthy from the hip surgery, but his conditioning isn't all the way there, so you're going to want him to be able to protect himself. Again going back to the offensive line with all these young guys and cohesion, the cohesion in continuity isn't going to be there out of the gate. It's going to be weeks. You know seven, eight, nine and ten. Potentially. We talk about this off season where the League is pressing for one preseason game, and the players want absolutely none. The idea that too is going to start week. One with zero preseason to me is pretty laughable when you figure out other elements. Elements that I kind of just discussed. There's a reason Ryan Fitzpatrick roster. He is a great teacher. For sure right. We know how savvy is out of Harvard, but he knows this system the best and so to me. You're looking at an edge here. That is at least twenty percent something you will not find and weeks one for sixteen betting on any you know point, spread this to me and you knock on wood here unless Ryan Fitzpatrick catches cove it. Near the start of the season or you know something awful happens to him outside the realm of football. He is your week one starting quarterback, and so I have no problem here laying minus three hundred on something that should be priced more like a ninety seven percent chance of happening than a seventy five percent chance of happening massive edge. That's what I was Gonna ask pain I mean we know you're connected and you have sources down. Send Sick. I'm pleased insecure. Can you send security detail and may not not referring to that you send security detail and make sure Ryan Fitzpatrick lives has next six weeks in a bubble. We can try and protect him to make sure that we're able to cash this. Bet You know come early. September I think we'll be fine. I think we'll be fine hopefully. The beard acts as a protective on top of the mask. I hear it as a viable alternative to an Airbag, but quote me medical proof in front of me if you find yourself with a bearded man or woman in some cases. In the front seat of a car, so Ryan Fitzpatrick to assume the reins as dolphins with one starting quarterback. Your I bet the best of the twenty twenty football season man of long to say those words and glad they finally get a chance to come out of my mouth. Any parting shots pain is we put a bow on the first of what will be eight divisional previews to get our loyal listeners ready for what should be an interesting, intriguing and more importantly, hopefully full NFL season this year. Nothing. We got eight more this this one. This one rolled long. I am. Potentially going to cut down some nuggets moving forward I didn't realize our ten minutes here. Who've? It'd be like. Hours of content here and we really. We shortchange the jets defense. We're giving people a little. Yeah. We didn't even mention Jamal Adams we didn't even is named, didn't even come hopefully Jason Greg Williams play Nice with each other this season because those two don't really like each other so. Never Green your. Win Total has been pummeled under from seven to six and a half. Always to keep tabs in that, but as you mentioned plenty of great content, we know our listeners will have five or six weeks to try and digest all of it hopefully, listen to the podcast multiple times to make sure they're ready to go before pain insider I am taught firm and thanks to all of you coming back for what pain our fifth season doing this. I can't even keep track anymore started in September of two thousand fourteen, so whatever the monkey math is on that. It's been six years. Longer than I thought yeah, that'd be. The fact that we've been able to keep this. Tandem. In. Harmony well I'm speech. and. Barry Self I think I think my signals breaking up on that note. We're closing up shop here so for pain insider I'm todd firm and best of luck with all of your off season, AFC east investments, and with the Ryan Fitzpatrick ticket head week one. We'll see you at the window. Thanks for listening to bet the board you can catch todd and pain every Monday Wednesday and Thursday during football season, breaking down the biggest NFL and college football games, and to make sure you don't miss any free. Best Bets subscribed to bet the board on I tunes Google. Play spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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NFC West Betting Preview: 2 NFL Best Bets! Kyler Improvement, McVays Confidence, Russell Wilson MVP

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1:03:27 hr | 10 months ago

NFC West Betting Preview: 2 NFL Best Bets! Kyler Improvement, McVays Confidence, Russell Wilson MVP

"Along. That thou board with. Those Bet You twenty bucks I can get you can't for the end of day illnesses. How they? Pay Debts, men, his manny it's the board podcast. Really. The and Right back where I. Could still pick winners. Can still make money for all kinds of people back home and why mess up a good thing airs pain insider and todd. Bet The board podcast powered by Fox Bent I'm your host Todd Furman join as always by my steam colleague and cohost ago on the only pain insider. What's the good word my man Living the dream, my friend trying to grind away obviously a lot different SPA? Eleven's living the dream. There's no complaints at all about getting a little Stanley Cup playoff hockey between the bruins and Hurricanes Brighton early, obviously, not the best news as far as the sports landscape is concerned, I'm not sure if we wanted to address that or just sweep it all under the rug but. This is the world we live in fortunately, and thankfully pain our beloved NFL is full speed ahead that will get chiefs and taxes on a fateful Thursday night early September. That's all we can hope for just keep during the content. That's kind of why with this point we've prepared for the NFL and we cut back college football prep fingers crossed. We get a little of that. I will say I mean when you talk about opportunity cost at I talked to a couple of other handicappers out here. You're one of the first guys tell me hey, look i. want to scale back some of the work you're doing on those power five conferences that I was plowing through during June and July terms out that was A. Decision at least a few of the leagues that I started with initial prepped. for May, ultimately pay dividends even if we don't get college football for real until late September I'm such a guy man. Aren't. You. I wouldn't go that far but I'll say you're a man of the people. Hopefully, our listeners have taken advantage of the first to preview podcasts we rattled off, of course, leading the AFC east and the transition for the Patriots along with the NFC that appears to be a two-horse race and pain before we get into the topic at hand that will be the NFC west becomes one of the more fascinating divisions in the entire NFL this year. Wanted to get your take real quick on all the players you know a lot of impactful guys especially on the defensive side of the ball opting out for New England, and of course, you had one of the biggest playmakers on the jets roster doing the same given the protocols in place for Covid nineteen this season the Patriots is the big one we've already broken down. The AFC says you alluded to that was the first podcast we did so. Go back and give that a listen. There's the best bet in there as well. But I'm looking at the Patriots the NFL is moving forward towards this analytical approach even more than it has over the last few seasons and similar to baseball with war. We can now track like this approximate value over replacement level in the NFL. Look at pro football reference. They are already said that the Patriots lost more talent this off season than any team in the NFL since two thousand three that was before Patrick Chung and dont`a hightower and you have. Your ace special teamer Brandon bolden. GUYS OPTED OUT If there's a coach they can kind of camouflage these departures, it certainly bill Belichick, but the loss is to me are just so abundant. I don't love all the narrative based things. As you know, it's really tough to quantify those but I think if you disregard them altogether. You're probably a full. I think you have to look at what this means because dont`a hightower is a team captain. You have bill belichick greatest coach to do it I think his style obviously grinds on you. It's GonNa wear you down. We've heard NFL players leave. New. England say like how difficult it was just wonder what these opt-outs mean because it's more than just health in my mind. It kind of indicates that when we're super bowl contender players are willing to run through that brick wall for check but when we're projected to be about five hundred. Suddenly don't WanNa run through that wall, and if there's any ounce of truth to that I, think it's going to have a trickle down effect the attitude I think it permeates throughout the team even for guys that have an opt out what it means when they see all their leaders. decided to not participate this season, the jets so it is. I was GONNA say I mean we know the jets and will, of course, talk about the impact Jamal Adams will have me get to the Seattle seahawks. Cj Moseley. D all of a sudden I mean, what's he played one game in two years for the amount of money and king's ransom that they sent his way. Tough tough between him and John James. Those contracts aren't looking so great. So that was your your leader in the middle of the defense huge loss and I think it puts more onus on that Sam Darnold Adam Gates relationship that we covered on the AFC's podcast that offense is going to have to be significantly better. Now, that is a massive loss. We know it's not a position that has an abundance of talent on the jets roster I. Mean we saw when Cj Moseley went out and they got hit with a slew of other injuries they were starting practice squad players as their lead linebackers they're getting chewed up and coverage. Moseley's a huge loss. Pretty wild to think about all the dynamics that will have to address handicapping. Of course, as we get closer to week one, we'll talk about the impact of fans in various buildings and everything else that a lot of our listeners veterans that have been with us from day one, some of the folks that may be listening to this podcast with the very first time we'll begin understand goes in. Handicapping, not just the impact of one player coaching scheme and everything else along those same lines. But I feel pain you said this perfectly talking about the relationship between Adam Gates and Sam. Darnold when you look at the NFC west, I think we have a bundle of unique quarterback and head coach pairings that will get to and much like we did with the first two preview podcasts rather than any. Particular order we'll go in alphabetical make it simple. But before we do that, let's discuss just early share briefly what the odds look like Fox back to win the NFC west. The San Francisco Forty niners of course are defending divisional champs, their price that a shade better than even money right behind the Seattle Seahawks plus two, twenty five. Then you have the rams at seven to two and it's the. Arizona cardinals picking up the rear at nine to one. Meanwhile, the cardinals win total sits at seven and a half shaded to the over and since we're starting there I, think the biggest question I have to ask you would we define year one between cliff Kingsbury and Kyla Murray as a successful marriage but a strong foundation that that group is capable of using to build going forward I think so. We. Still don't know if Kingsbury can run an entire team couldn't at Texas Tech Thing was twenty three in forty. If you remove FCS opponents in in Kansas from his record policies, they're Kansas. Kansas counts FBI program at least theoretically you know we still don't know if the cardinals organization has the right defensive mind even in Vance Joseph he if he can be trusted to operate on this island essentially without help from his head coach but I think we can say with conviction. Kings varies one of the better offense of minds we saw last year had a willingness to adjust and adapt on the fly with a makeshift align, and he didn't have a true number one receiver. The running back for a good chunk of the season. He didn't like it was pretty impressive how he adopted. Now. You have these added weapons. You have chemistries you alluded to I think the expectations in your two for both cliff in cuyler much higher. So I think we're GONNA see certainly an increase in offensive production this year but I like what I saw at least initially in both their rookie campaigns in the NFL. When you look at Cuyler Murray last year started slow but. Gradually, pick things up and made some of those strategy. You'd like to see from a rookie quarterback I mean thirty seven, hundred passing yards, twenty touchdowns. Twelve interceptions led all rookies and completion percentage better than sixty four percent and the aforementioned passing yards five, hundred, forty, four rushing yards trailed Lamar Jackson amongst quarterbacks and I think pain for me the decision making that I saw look significantly better late in the year. Then when we had a game against the Baltimore Ravens, we went over the. Total and Arizona looked ill equipped to get into the end zone. Now you bring in a big time weapon De'andre Hopkins Statistically, speaking his ninety six plus catches and four the last five seasons eleven hundred receiving yards five of the last six years, and since two thousand thirteen hopkins is third in the NFL in receiving yards with six touchdowns over those last five years. How big an impact can hopkins have alongside the aging wonder Larry Fitzgerald and another emerging talent in Christian Kurkin is receiving core. Give Murray that bona fide number one receiver on the outside. It's huge. You mentioned Fitzgerald is day one hall of Famer, but he is getting a little older. Christian. Kirk has a great report with cuyler from their days at am and I think he's projected to ascend a little bit neither would be number one guys at this point pass you know. I think when you look at where they are in their careers. Christian. Kirk certainly ascending fitzgerald a little bit older. But the receiving options were bleak last season I mean David Johnson who appears to be playing with a piano on his back these days had the third most targets for the cardinals you look it's the injuries they suffered to the receiver group. It's a reason why Kingsbury offense was number one in the NFL and screen pass percentage twenty, two percent of all the passes were screens. But I like Hopkins obviously, if you look at where he operates, which last season was outside, sixty, four percent of his snaps on the outside, you mesh that with where cuyler was best where he had his most success throwing as a rookie it was outside to receivers and tight ends when you look at cuyler when he through to the right side of the field in the air fifteen yards or more, the cardinals were nine percent better than league average passing success rate twelve percent better than league average on those same throws to the left side. So you add hopkins into the mix, he's gotten ability to run routes and create separation. I think that's really going to bode. Well, if you look last season Hopkins, called it a down year for him. He still averaged two point, seven yards of separation per route run. That was better than a lot of big dudes outside that. Get All the praise Michael Thomas Amari Mike Evans obgyn digs hopkins was better in separation than those guys. So that's huge for cuyler. The one thing we touched on it a little bit back in March that I'm still monitoring with Kyle a close eye on it. is how Kylie throws the ball over the middle. If you look at Arizona's passing offense last season, Kyle targeted receiver a tight end over the middle of field in the zero to fourteen yard range. It wasn't good. The cardinals were eight percent worse than league average and success rate fourteen percent worse when the ball was thrown fifteen or more yards in the middle in the air. It's not to bash him obviously, but you start to think the height, the five ten height. Is preventing him from being able to see as well throwing the ball over his offensive line, throwing the ball over defenders in the middle of the field I. think it's something that we have to monitor in year two. I think what you're hoping for if you're cardinals fan. Is that not only will hopkins kind of improve that strength throwing outside but the attention paid to hopkins allows guys like Fitzgerald in Kirk in ills, Avella to kind of flourish over the middle but listen I if thrown over the middle is in Tyler attribute, he's got plenty of other redeeming qualities. Electric his legs or something. You have a game plan for his ability to improvise whether it was a scripted run where you know a defense thinks you know, hey, we got him dead to rights many times. You don't. If you look at work hyler really excelled last year average nearly ten yards per carry seventy, seven percent success rate when scrambling because of pressure todd I think we just hope for his sake there's a little more help upfront this season. While you mentioned that and when you talk about the Arizona Cardinals, of course, the diminutive quarterback even with the mobility of Kyla Murray. That's clearly where you WANNA look along the offensive line, they go out there and they signed Kelvin Beecham, who started forty five of forty eight games for the jets finished third amongst tackles in pass blocking win rate at a shade better than ninety four percent according to ESPN stats and Info they do have Marcus Gilbert opting out who was expected to take the starting right tackle job you now look at just and Murray or maybe a third round pick and Josh Jones that can give them depth but from the existing roster place pain where you feel comfortable with an old line that can protect Murray and give them a semblance of a ground game behind Kenyan drake will be playing under that transitional tag. It's a weird offense of wine and we love digging into some of the metrics but you know they weren't great the cardinals and creating space in the ground game. So they're twenty-second adjusted line yards twenty six adjusted sack right allowed. But what's really interesting is the line finished third in pass blocking efficiency tenth in place block win rate. It tells me going back to Qin. Kings vary that his scheme is pretty good. It really helped the offensive line out in some areas. Arizona had the most injured O- line group in the NFL. So there's some things pointing up there. You're right Marcus. Gilbert he is opting out I think that's a pretty big loss. The cardinals did add Josh Jones from Huston, the rookie tackle. I'm not sure what he's going to be able to contribute right away under the current circumstances but the cardinal's offensive line coach actually recruited Jones in high school. So he's familiar with his abilities a little bit. Let's not forget Max William last year was added. Great out the best run blocking tight end in two thousand nineteen. If you look at where cliff loves running, it's outside zone and with good reason, Arizona had a fifty six percent success rate an outside zone runs last season Max Williams is a big part of that. He pinches off the edgy helps Kenyan drake get. Outside it was really beauty to watch. The other thing that I think helps the offensive line is is having Kenyan drake for the entire year. The difference he made last year to this offense and as you alluded to, it started the trend up towards the end of the year. It's because Kenyan drake and and they started to change things offensively they changed their formation. Aptitude where they were running ton of ten personnel, they decided not to do that. But Kenyan drake was the huge difference in this offense and I think his familiarity helps a little bit. But you focus on Kenyan drake good God cliff Kingsbury used him on nearly eighty percent of the snaps. The final eight games averaged one hundred and two scrimmage yards. He deserved to get all those snaps in the one thing the cardinals offense really struggled with. Their First Down Success I eight Games cardinals offense twenty sixth in I down success rate three percent worse than league average with Kenyan Drake Finally Games Arizona eighth and I down success rate three percent better than league average. What does that do for a young quarterback when he suddenly not faced with long situations on second and third down so drake was helping everybody it was vital that he was implemented into this offense. So I think having him for a full season is is a huge huge gift for the cardinals. Of. Kenyan drake doesn't work out the cardinals can continue to stockpile Arizona state running back I mean Dj Foster Benjamin maybe they'll just create a pipeline therefrom herm Edwards in funnel, right into cliff Kingsbury offense. But for all the optimism pain I, think a lot of have about the cardinals offense and how exciting it could be near two of those to continue to be on the same page head coach and starting quarterback. Obviously, there's some things that people are worried about what the Arizona cardinals that's why their win total is seven and a half, and you mentioned Vance Joseph earlier hilly. The defense that was ranked dead last in the NFL too loud more than four hundred yards. Per Game, we know the Chandler. Jones is the biggest name on that side of the ball five straight double digit sack seasons most in the NFL nineteen sacks that included three games. We didn't even record a single one they went out there and they address some of their needs along the defensive line. You look in the secondary Patrick Peterson Bona fide number one theoretically but maybe not as elite as he was a couple of seasons ago. But what do you make of this stop unit for the Arizona Cardinals Isaiah Simmons all the town the world but asking rookie to contribute right out of the gate to the truncated preseason seems to be a little bit of a reach. I'm not sure ventures of its and I witnessed him I you firsthand down in here in Miami. Two Thousand Sixteen, the dolphins finished nineteenth defensive efficiency against the bottom ten schedule of offenses in somehow vans parlayed that into the Denver Broncos head coaching job. And his defense is finished top ten full seasons there but he inherited the number one defense prior to his arrival. Get. Shit canned and then Arizona hires last season and the cardinals defense finished twenty third against the top ten schedule of offenses. I think this is a monster year for Vance. you start to kind of poke around you try to give the guy a chance. There are some positives I think the indicate probably a better defensive cardinals unit this year we're projecting them right now to face a below average schedule of offenses that should help the glaring weakness of the cardinals defense should improve something we talked about it nauseam todd anytime we broke down cardinals game last season especially I think during those primetime. Games against George on the forty niners they couldn't cover tight ends. They couldn't cover running backs. You mentioned Isaiah Simmons I think he helps immediately with that. But what's really interesting is how they're gonNA use them. We know his versatility he doesn't have a crew position I. Mean you got to play at one position though I think to make his transition to the NFL that much more seamless right I mean you're not gonNA. Drop. Yet, yeah, exactly. What they're talking about doing they said, hey we're gonNA use them as a middle linebacker. We know he's a rookie. We know he's behind the eight ball with short and offseason. So they're going to start a middle linebacker I think his athletic ability his speed to cover tight ends I think helps day one though, and if you look Arizona dead last in receiving yards and touchdowns allowed to tight ends, the NFL average for touchdowns allowed to tight ends was six point two last season. Arizona gave up sixteen touchdowns. Two tight ends couldn't cover running backs either finish twenty fifth or worse in receptions receiving yards in receiving touchdowns allowed to running back. So you have a gazelle out there like Isaiah Simmons and I think that has to improve those two areas. You get another boost though both projected starting corners from season to go either injured or suspended Robert for never played a snap they him to. A pretty nice deal in the offseason last year from. ATLANTA. Patrick Peterson suspended the first six game. So the cardinals pass defense was horrific gave a belief. I seventy two explosive passes first six weeks without Peterson Alford, and then you had the rookie Byron? Murphy effectively like thrown into the fire out of necessity Arizona love fifty, five, percent pass degrade successful ten percent more than league average final ten games with Peterson. Murphy having a little more experience. There was a seven percent improvement passing success rate and oddly the part that left me questioning Vance a little bit was despite not being able to cover tight ends and running backs a secondary. That had a lot of key cogs missing for these large stretch of the season Van said. Hey Bucket I'm just going to blitz he sent. percent of the Yes, you can run the back end just impression. Hope it gets on. Brahmos it didn't get home he blitz a forty percent of the time. It was the third highest rate in the. NFL. But the Russian never got home unfortunately Arizona was twenty-six six, pressure eight. So they were left exposed the secondary by this blitzing defense that rarely impacted opposing quarterbacks. It was a disaster in the scheme didn't help at all. It's going to be an interesting team to watch if. They can figure out anything on the defensive side. You talked about the schedule being a little bit more favorable vision that's not going to really give them any easy out as far as six opportunities against the NFC west should be a fun team to watch and we'll see what they can do with this unique talent that they have. Offensively the kind of performance is they can put forth but I. Know Todd when you mentioned that offense to kind of put a bow tie, they have to start hot because if you look at the schedule from week ten on Arizona faces teams projected to win nearly nine games on average from week ten onward they have to start. So. Much of it's about momentum and you talk about this team in the direction they can had we know that things can easily be derailed in the NFL and I guess that makes sense for the next thing that we're going to discuss with the Los, Angeles Rams win total sits at eight and a half it is indeed shaded to the over of course, the rams missed the playoffs for the first time under coach Sean mcvay last season they are however the only team in the NFL to finish with a winning record yet missed the playoffs in two thousand, nineteen they of course won the NFC west. In. Two thousand, seventeen in two, thousand, eighteen compiled at twenty four and eight record over those seasons which was tied for best in the NFL and they've had a winning record every year under coach McVeigh, thirty, three, and fifteen. The only franchise with a better record during that span would be the New Orleans saints. But pain when we look at McVeigh and we talk about a potential rebound, it's gotta come quick because this team and franchise put themselves in salary cap hell were they have three point nine, million cap space available the only teams in worse shape right now the raiders and the Tampa Bay Bucks. It's hard to say this about coach I like. One of. The least interesting teams in the League Todd so much so that I didn't even watch hard knocks last night. Did you manage to watch that? Know what I was going to start it, and then once the Golden Knights game got going on time realizes about ten, fifteen, ten, thirty figure I don't really care about the two teams that are GonNa be playing so-fi stadium all that much this year. The rams are in a weird spot in in you kind of alluded to this they're trying to shed some dead cap. They didn't have a first round pick. This year won't as it stands in twenty twenty one to me. They're trying to build back some of their resources so they can make another run in two or three seasons. But the other three teams in the NFC Wester far more interesting. There really isn't a story line to the twenty twenty rams aside from McVeigh's confidence in my mind and last year when we previewed the rams, I think we discussed. Little Bit of the Super Bowl hangover and then they had to play the toughest schedule in the entire league. So wasn't surprising that they had down season. We even joked about mcvay kind of having his soul ripped out by bell check and Flora's and I have to tell you. There's no question to me McVeigh's loss of confidence and he starting to really question some things it because for the first time McVeigh's been la says hey. I'm going to appoint an offensive coordinator in Kevin O'CONNELL and he said he wanted to inject a fresh viewpoint into the offense. To me, there's no middle ground here this in my opinions either GonNa help in a big way or it's a sign that McVeigh has truly lost. The MOJO mcvay claims he's still gonNA call place but I was listening to Jared Goff interview and he said the core values of the offense are going to remain the same but there's going to be some new things implemented todd so I'm intrigued to see what that means for the rams offense. Well, when we talk about the rams offense philosophy I, mean you've outlined it and kind of bang the drum over the last couple of seasons it all starts with the effectiveness of a play action pass and the offense was ranked top five in the NFL both passing yards, and in the red zone last season, they put forty three rushing touchdowns on the board over the last two seasons the most in the NFL of course, the lion share of those coming on the shoulders of Todd. Gurley with him gone pain who ultimately the baton I mean is it going to be? Daryl Henderson it's GonNa get First Crack Malcolm Brown camakers Jones John Kelly I. Don't know what to make of the rams back. The clearly Henderson was a guy that we were high on a season ago didn't peruse and after averaging twenty four point, six points per game. It was a precipitous drop off from the thirty one point four, they did in their route to get to the super bowl they're gonNA need a running back to step up maybe it's camakers because when you look at the rams off season, they traded away brandin cooks they draft camakers, they draft a tight end. Of their first four picks were either tight end or running back, it would indicate to me L. A. Plans on starting this season with the mindset of how they finished last year, and that's transitioning to a heavier formation offense. If you look lashed, you're the first ten weeks mcvay US two tight end sets twelve percent of the time final seven weeks forty percent and the two big beneficiaries were tyler higby and golf to an extent. I think golf is going to be helped by this again, higby good God final five games at five, hundred, twenty, two yards literally one some teams fantasy leagues I think he is going to be relied upon heavily if you look higby snaps doubled. In Iran three times, more routes per game. The final five games in the first eleven huge benefactor of mcvay going with heavier formations and I think he also helped in pass blocking because that was an issue and if you look at Higby, he's always been good and pass protection. He's had sixteen hundred in three pass block snaps in his career only allowed three sacks so. Again, it helped golf gave him some much needed protection that he wasn't getting from the Oh liner owned the season. If you look golf actually wasn't sacked one time when the rams used to were more tight ends on the field. Last season you touched on this right the loyal listeners know if you've listened to this podcast, we've chronicle this. We've led the charge golf AIDS pressure. Doesn't like to be hit I think is toughness is a little bit questionable treats the ball like a hot potato he melts when pressure is on. And, the dichotomy Goff's numbers are massive when he was pressured last season passer rating dip forty points completion rate dropped thirty, one percent. He doesn't show at this point a willingness to stand in the pocket or step into the pocket and deliver a ball and getting hit, and you can kind of see that a little bit. There was a real lack of aggressiveness according to player Tracking Data. Golf was thirty fifth out of thirty nine quarterbacks and aggressiveness as a passer his air yards were down his depth per completion was down. Golf needs a clean pocket. He's better when his feeder set. So it'll be interesting to see with these heavier formations if McVeigh uses more play auction. We love the increased use of it but again, I'm not sure we want Goff's feet moving more than than they to, and if you look last season golf had a better passer rating when he threw the ball without play action and oddly he threw more interceptions than touchdowns when using play action so. It's GonNa be interesting to see what this rams offense does. The last thing we want to talk about here, kind of before we transition to the other side of the ball is the o line down the stretch improved and again partly because I think the help of the two tight end sets, but all five lineman returned for. La. So there is some continuity in that means more in this offseason. Rob Haven Stein had his worst season as a pro. You should bounce back a little bit. Your Hope Boston Blythe returns to his two thousand eighteen form in terms of pass protection. Rams are projected the face, a schedule posing pass rushers. That's bottom ten leak. Then you go out yet camakers I think he's an upgrade, I really do his vision at times as great. Soma I'm about to tell you what what his issues are. The vision isn't great because he's this converted high school quarterback but I think there's a lot of upside when you think about and we talk about this all the time, the offensive lines that he had to run behind at Florida, state? And they were the focal point of our shows on on. Wednesday. But if you look at acres productions as a junior, everything was mostly his own doing seventy, nine percent of acres rushing yards came after first contact his elusiveness was off the charts forced miss tackles on thirty, two percent of his touches. So I think it's imperative when you look at McVeigh, he's got to get the ground game going again this season. But it's GonNa be difficult. You just mentioned he's got a slew running back options. Let's see what he goes with I. Think Cam and Henderson are probably the lead guys, but they face a top five schedule of run defenses. So it's not going to be easy and you talked about to change and offensive philosophy McVeigh handing off some of the responsibilities to offensive coordinator, we're going to see some changes on the defensive side. As, well, a veteran DC, and Wade Phillips out. Brandon Staley's in and pain. When you look at this defense, the linebacking core is absolutely barren while the secondary in my opinion has some talent. We know what extremely young Nicole Roby Coleman guy that we've talked about at great length and what the impact he'll have in his new places absence will be felt they have superstars in Jalen, Ramsey Aaron Donald but I guess The biggest question that I have, we're the hell's the pass rush come from Aaron Donald is disruptive force on the defensive line but I can't see anywhere else that the rams go. Hey, look this is where we're going to trust getting sex and it doesn't get easier when you're talking about losing Dante. Fowler Losing Clay Matthews you underperformed during most of his time there and then on the back end, of course Eric retiring. I'm down on the rams defense and we don't know much about that new DC Brennan, Staley Young Guy in his thirties he is from the VIC Fangio tree vic hired him in two thousand, seventeen from a Catholic college in Ohio to be the bears outside linebackers coach followed victim Denver for the same job. So staley only three years in the NFL never more than an. Outside linebackers coach to this is a big leap here and it'll be interesting to see what his style is. If it Mir's Fangio's or if he has a different philosophy without a normal off season or preseason games, it's going to be difficult to gauge some of these things I know McVeigh has hinted trying to be more hands on with the defense todd to suit him. Guys he got his even watch the defense. He's got back to the field what his defense is out there, and all of a sudden he's going to become a defensive guru I that's a stretch I get where go but you're right. We typically see him like isolated in the corner somewhere drawn up plays for the next offensive possession when his defense is on the field. But let's see what it looks like in two thousand twenty in the thing that McVeigh said he wants a defense it's more matchup driven with Week week-to-week week philosophies that change it smart definitely how it should be done. But I think it's tough to implement that this year and when you go down to the actual players on the rams defense, it's tough having questions I think about a unit that includes Aaron Donald but I'm not sure about the depth along the Rams Defensive Line question marks as you alluded to at linebacker and slot corner back in March on our off season preview podcasts, we talked about the importance of Cory Littleton in today's game he's a good cover linebacker. He's a surefire tackler few look littleton finish top twenty in yards allowed per route run among linebackers with at least four hundred. Covered snaps a far and away the most efficient tackling linebacker last season. That's a massive loss in the heart of the rams defense. It wasn't worth the price tag of retaining, Dante Fowler. But losing him isn't a positive wet overtired I think most no our feelings at this point about Roby Coleman if you smart listened to the NFC. East betting preview and we touched on him Nicole Roby Coleman in today's game huge loss one of five corners to record four hundred or more coverage naps in the slot in two thousand nineteen allowed zero point six, three yards per coverage nap gigantic loss. I think the loan positive here is it looks like the schedule of offenses faced is projected to be below average slightly easier than last season. Especially when you factor in the past protecting ability of the offensive line's, you're gonNA need big years from rockers. Aba Cam at those two are going to have a chance to eat in their new increased roles but the rams are going to have their hands full trying to stop the run this year tot. How dare we not respect Leonard Floyd the impact he could have that the rams brought him over a guy who's underachieved his previous stop but yeah, I'm right there with Ya. I. Think when you look at this rams team, they're gonNA, have to outscore everyone because that defense isn't going to get stopped consistently should be interesting to try and see when you're matching up twice a year with the team like the San Francisco Forty niners who have their win total set at ten and a half shaded to the over Fox. and. Of course, the forty niners paying you mentioned continuity and how important it'll be in twenty twenty they returned eighteen of twenty, two starters from last year super bowl only three, the last nine super bowl runner ups have gone on to win their division the next season. So the forty niners working against bit history there five streets seasons four this franchise without a winning record until they broke through last year ultimately lost a turnover battle in just four games. which I think we often try and figure out is that sustainable year to year again with the forty niners and of course, get to their defense I. Think the biggest question that a Lotta fans out there have is Jimmy G. Good enough to be the pivot Kyle Shanahan needs to ultimately get them over the Hump not come up eight minutes short of bringing Lombardi trophy back to the bay area. We still haven't figured out where you get that terminology from. Every called a pivot it's not a quarterback it's not single caller it's not to pivot. Yeah, you mix it up a little bit from time to time. No DOC emrick here with the way I can talk about nine thousand different ways to describe a pass in hockey, but we try to keep things fresh as best we can is it almost eleven yet? No got about eighteen minutes until I two. Now you're droning on about NFC teams I start to watch hockey. I may have to flip that on mute as well. Which is typically I watch hockey anyways. Jimmy. G.. I'm going to ignore that day continue with G di? tried. Man The was got screwed in the draft thing. They had to send him to a big market. You have to make the Rangers King's relevant. You Got Sidney Crosby for a few more years your pens be fine. We'll get you. We'll get a hockey podcast on here somewhere and people can see your true colors oh. Yeah Oh. Yeah. Jimmy G. I think he's good enough. The offense is good. Enough Kyle Shanahan arguably the best play caller and designer in the NFL right now. He does all the things that. Most great offensive coordinators in minds do they use play action they use a higher rate of pre snap motion. So there's only going to be I think varying degrees of good from Kyle Shanahan in the offense. The question you kind of mentioned air everyone seems to have with the four hundred is. Do they have the right guy under center. Is Jimmy G. Good Enough? That it feels odd to me and I think you can roll the tape on on her super bowl podcast back in late January, we nixed the idea that Jimmy was the problem. Then I don't believe they'll be what prevents the forty niners from winning super bowl this season either. Were higher on Emmanuel Sanders I. Think than most but it seems like Jimmy Jeez getting crushed his abilities are being questioned for overthrowing. A thirty-three-year-old possession receive run a fifty, five yard deepak pressure in his face. You know there was really no continuity. Those two guys played ten games together I get it. It's a huge play, but it's one snap of an entire season sample and I think that's what most are latching onto. Meanwhile when you look at the entire seasons ample. Jimmy G. was the very best deep passer in the NFL seventy, four percent Jessica percentage deep throws the next bet qualifying border back was in fifty four percent. So you look at Jimmy G. I. Think he was largely responsible for the forty niners having the highest explosive pass rate in the NFL those throws of twenty or more yards. That's important chunk place. I'm not making excuses for the guy, but I think if you remember back, Garoppolo did all this in his first season back from an ACL tear? He faced the top ten schedule passing defenses as you mentioned at the top. Kyle Shanahan won a grand total of ten games. His first two seasons in San Francisco Combined Jimmy Johns first full season thirteen wins. And it would appear to me Jimmy confidence is high right now, I don't know if you've done some reading over the last eighteen hours, but he's shedding the Nibras it's coming off. So he's not going to wear one this season and when I look at the two thousand, twenty season todd in the forty niners offense I think this is probably the first time we can start to be critical in Nitpick Jimmy. Look at Jimmy G.. Of course, it's not just ham we'll get to the offensive line which I think is an interesting group to discuss. But as far as his weapons are concerned, George cadle brandon I you the talented receiver they draft out of Arizona State Deebo Samuel breaks his foot during June workouts. Let's hope he's one hundred percent by the time the. Season gets going in September but doesn't have enough weapons in the passing game. We know there's changing faces in the Backfield as well with her he most you think poised to probably be the lead back, but we know Kyle Shanahan has always gonNA divvy up that carries and not rely on one back to Belco getting twenty touches a game we're going to. Get more from Jimmy G. This year I I really do when you look at the entire landscape, you lose Emmanuel Sanders, you mentioned deebo Samuel breaks his foot. It's not an easy injured or recover from quickly for a number of reasons. I'm not sure we're going to see him at the the onset of the year. So you're down your two highest greater receivers on the roster marquees. Goodwin also moved on. I. Think most would say like well, you know Kyle. Shanahan ran the ball for the first three quarters at the third highest rate in the League is first team no Biggie. I would tend to agree, but the forty niners or a top five schedule of run defenses. This season it was below average last year sue now we anticipate a tougher run schedule. The weapons outside take a little bit of a dip is on Jimmy G. to lift the offense up more the season. You know the forty niners they go out draft Brandon Euch. Explosive. Guy. Great, run after the catch guy can jump a country mile. Let's remember. The JUKU guy wasn't fully developed the knock on him was his route running, and if you look at his route tree at the college level, seventy percent of his targets at Asu. Last season either slants goes posts very basic routes. It's not a really robust route tree right now I you plays one of the toughest position to be a factor as a rookie. Now, we have this extremely shortened off season but I think he's probably a good space receiver and he's going to fill that role deebo Samuel out of the gates if Deebo isn't there I think it's Important, you look a Kendrick born. He's gotTa take the next step and whether it's Jalen Hurd or it's done a pettus. One of those guys needs to be a factor. But the guy I'm hearing the buzz about we're finally going to see Jerick McKinnon and teammates are raving about him. The last time we saw him was like two years ago fifty one receptions from the running back position. Kyle chaining is gonNA find matchups in the past game for him I. Think now more than ever. It's also crazy to say this but maybe more goes on George Kettles plate if that's possible and if you look the forty niners throat in the middle of the field that sixty five percent clip in the league kiddle, Jimmy, G. had a great bond. Last season throws over the Middle Jimmy G. recorded the highest total EPA in the League I love that the forty niners acted fast. They used a previous relationship is well, you hinted at the offensive line. They had a glaring issue there left tackle with Joe Staley retiring they rob Washington Trent Williams. So now Jimmy Jeez blindside is protected a fifth and a third round pick for premium player to premium position had a full year to get healthy reunites with cal. Shanahan. WHO SPENT FOUR YEARS WITH IN WASHINGTON? Perfect fit todd you also Jordan read it came down Sunday afternoon. Do I think he is like the alternate? Eight, he'll be on the field for eight snaps before he ends up hurt again let's not kid ourselves. You're missing the point here right? These are low risk high reward signings, and when you have a team that just needs that one player that one guy to get them over the hump or that one special move or play in a big game is Jordan Reed could potentially. Add that it also indicates we might see a little more two tight end sets here with some of those receivers that could be out or too young to contribute right away. So at least at the onset of the season, if you're trying to get young receivers acclimated Deebo, Mrs Time maybe you start using more twelve before Jordan eluded to leaves and departs with an injury. Offensive. Line was one of the strengths for this team pain. We know about some of the stars that are there. They did have a few guys opt out which I think hurt their depth defensively the forty niners at the top ranked pass defense in the league allowing less than one hundred, seventy yards per game was actually the fewest passing yards at team has allowed since the two thousand nine jets and I think a lot of that pain you don't have to be a rocket scientist to. figure out that they were so good on the back end because they're pass Russia's elite a fifth and sack led by of course, Mr Bosa Eric Armstead deforest Buckner, who's no longer there in d., Ford and they were also very good with undersized albeit athletic linebackers that were great in terms of taking away the tight end. But when you look at this secondary I mean some major question marks there if they can't get home does the forty niners defense and evidently take a step back. I think that makes sense. Yeah. But I do believe Robert Salon will have a very, very good defense again and I think he's really responsible for the forty niners. Making that Super Bowl run because his defense made a huge leap from twenty third defensive efficiency to second year-over-year. Even crazier that gigantic uptick happened with forty niners having the seventh most injured defense. A lot of guys in that secondary were banged up. It'll be interesting to see if the unit can maintain that dominance I think were were calling for some slight regression. Right. Off The bat, the forty niners go from facing a slightly above average schedule of offenses. Last season to a projected top three schedule offenses in two thousand twenty. So that's really where we think some of the regression probably happens down the stretch we started to see a few areas. The forty niners defense could be exploited a little bit. We saw in the forty niners defense face top five offenses they performed at a level below expectation. First half of the season seem like the forty niners defense built the reputation on being elite or one of the best ever. A, lot of that was in part to the competition. If you go back to the first eight weeks of last season when they were stacking up these numbers, San Francisco's defense played offenses with an average efficiency rank of twenty fifth the quarterbacks over that stretch yet guys like Mason. Rudolph James Dalton Two quarterbacks that had down years and Mayfield in Goff they face case keenum and in monsoon and then Kyle Allen. So we felt like there was some noise in some of those early season numbers and we talked about that last year. You'll look at how they fared against top five offenses inefficiency. The forty niners were two and three. In those games they allowed fifty four percent of runs degrade successful in forty, nine percent of passes against all other teams. Forty. Seven percent against the run thirty, seven percent against the past. Now I think everyone listens like, Hey, it's obvious. Right. When you play lead offense is GonNa be tougher to defend. But if you look at how those five offenses performed on average for a full season last year and how they performed against the forty niners defense the second best buy by the metrics four of the five offenses met or outperformed their season-long numbers against the forty niners defense in the Super Bowl Kansas City met their season long success number fifty, one, percent week ten, seattle exceeded their season long success rate metric by five percent week seventeen. Seattle under shot at by five percents that was like the lone win for the San Francisco Defense Week Thirteen. Baltimore is a complete downpour. They exceeded their season long rushing success rate metric by three percent, which was a massive number, two eclipse, and then on top of that, you know you look at that game no one was passing the ball in that game they knew they had to run being successful in fifty eight percent of runs in that game with the weather being ridiculous was pretty impressive. The Saints Offense Week Fourteen, who is number one in the NFL and overall success rate of fifty three percent outperform that number by three percent against San Francisco's defense. You mentioned at the top and we talked about it all last year San Francisco's defense was great because they had an ability to get pressure without blitzing number two and pressure rate but blitz the fourth least perfect combination but San Francisco wasn't this. You know elite defense getting pressure on early downs or in the red zone something we covered in the Super Bowl podcast the gist average in red zone success rate allowed. So to me, I'm a little concerned with the loss of deforest Buckner, I, think they paid the wrong guy I made. That known back in March buckner finished eighth more better in three straight seasons in pressures for all interior linemen. Now, get it. You can't afford everyone and you get his replacement in round one with J von in law he fills that whole and long-term. There will likely be a value gain based on dollar save versus production, but you're in win now mode to me damn good defense it'll continue to be but I don't think it'll be that elite unit that finished second efficiency I believe we see like Utah a small step back this year. And if there's a team poice poised easy for me to say to knock the forty niners off their perch, it may well fact be the Seattle Seahawks win total sits at nine and a half shaded to the over this franchise. It has not won the NFC west since two, thousand sixteen but finished second place each of the last three seasons. When you look at the way, they've built everything around Russell Wilson a winner winning record in Eighth Street seasons every year that Russell Wilson has been team starting quarterback. Only the Patriots have a longer active streak average eleven wins this season with him going back to two, thousand twelve and they're one of. Two teams with double digit wins each of the last two years. What's interesting? No pain. They're twenty and ten, the division and only ten eight against divisional foes over a limited sample size. Is this the year we finally see the Seattle seahawks take the governor off. Russell. Wilson and allow him to be the quarterback. We know he can be and not just have to scramble around make plays every single series on third and eight. You Cheer Hope and I know we've been carrying the Russell. Wilson Torch for Awhile thought you know the last two seasons we've made sure that that flame Burns Taller and wider and we hold it higher so everyone can see. and. We've we've attributed his value to the seahawks organization almost similarly to to Lebron meant to Cleveland, and we've almost like pushed for an ownership stake. He's so important that movements kind of happening. You know people now understand how valuable Russell Wilson is he's guy that's never received an MVP vote in his entire career. Now he's being mentioned as one of the better. So wild. So wild to me of all the stats I read that earlier this off season, and now it seems like he's he's being mentioned as one of the better. MVP bets this season. The problem and you kind of hinted at this, we're still waiting on Pete Carroll. Brian Schottenheimer, to figure this out. This point they haven't and every time we think they're about to you know figure this thing out. We're kind of left disappointed. It shouldn't be difficult to understand. that. When you pay Russ what you pay him, he needs the ball in his hands more because what's around him probably is diminished so you could actually pay him what you paid them. It seems like a simple. When you look at Wilson's player tracking data the last two seasons with Brian Schottenheimer as. I think this probably becomes more evident. Because, Russell Wilson's expected completion percentage under Schottenheimer is bottom five in the NFL but is completion percentage above expectation has been top five back to back seasons. So it says he's not being put in great positions, but yet he still one of the best quarterbacks in the leak. So this is like quite essential meaning of the phrase turning chicken shit in the chicken salad and I think you know when you look at Russell Wilson. He can't be a quarterback on a team that only throws the twenty seventh most in the NFL. He needs to be a bigger part of this offense and hopefully that's the case this year. I mean, his numbers are simply staggering when you talk about a guy who was top five in the NFL and passing touchdowns in passer rating last year yet sacked forty eight times. which time for the League lead turnover differential they were plus twelve tied for third in the NFL and truly elite when it came to red zone scoring obviously, we know that the seahawks live and die with some of their ground attack where they had the fourth ranked rushing offense. A season ago, the Ad Carlos side and Dj Dallas. We know Rashaad Penny and Chris. Carson dealt with major injuries which kind of derailed any playoff aspirations but you also have emerging stars or at least one emerging star decay metcalf went fifty catches for nine hundred plus yards and seven touchdowns. Think he makes a major jump in his second season alongside tyler. Lockett do does Seattle have the weapons pain that you feel comfortable with if they allow Russell Wilson to do what he does best and finally maybe throw on early downs. That's the hope listen we've kind of bagged on. Schottenheimer a little bit here but there was some improvement in if you you mentioned I down specifically, there was a ten point one percent increase year over year in first down pass rate. That's a positive side. Still, far too much running second down and I think that's the next step in the evolution of the offense were hoping to see especially when you look at the schedule of defenses Seattle faces twenty twenty projecting the toughest schedule of run defenses, but just slightly above average of passing defenses. So it's really time to to Unleash Russ, the weapons around him are better than people think too. We saw Tyler Lockett increases production with Doug Baldwin choosing to retire even playing through an injured ankle, the final seven games last season lock it's one thousand yard receiver and. Increased his reception rate by forty five percent. The biggest thing to me though is lock. It showed an ability not just to be like this one trick pony deep threat he could run routes to. Three, point two yards of separation per route run for lock at fourth, most separation of any receiver targeted one hundred or more times. You mentioned decay metcalf specifically surge down the stretch as a rookie I think that bodes well for a year to leap twenty two percent of the seahawks target share. The Final Ten Games had twenty four explosives. He's this rare combination man of of size and speed he can get downfield he can create separation, but he's also this big target in the end zone in the red zone decay led the NFL in end zone targets. Last season. Greg. Olson still has enough in the tank to be a factor plus disley. Think could have a big year if he can stay healthy was the sixth sixth place fantasy production the first six weeks of last season. Then he gets injured additionally, you might be investing before information actually occurs I sent a note last week one of my guys up there said. Listen Seattle would be very open to a Josh Gordon. Reunion if the League reinstates him, I would be looking at either him. Or. A B.. Now, they haven't publicly said ANYTHING ABOUT A B but they publicly or saying some things about Gordon Ab we know is now suspended the first. Eight Games. So. You have to take a risk on him. He's still got the other case pending. So who knows what comes of that but they're talking to both Abyan Gordon potentially one of the two being added. To vinyl things, todd seahawks offensive line we know is a weak link but on the left side, there's at least some continuity you have Dwayne Brown, you have mei-chieh potty you bring in a new starting center and Bj. Finney. Who is Benny backup in Pittsburgh but he's in his prime in four starts last you're only allowed three pressures on one hundred and sixty five pass blocking snaps. If that can somehow translate to a full season, it's a grand slam pickup the sixty ninth pick Seattle took guard Damian Lewis. He is a huge human and you saw his draft stock rise in the Auburn game when played well against. On they've penciled Brandon Shallan at right tackle is shell like this awesome player no. But his worst season over the last four years is a pro is better than any of the four seasons previous right tackle Jermaine IFM has had so it's very possible. The offensive line is a little bit better. This season there's going to be competition throughout right now pete has nineteen offensive lineman on the roster. Okay. So there's going to be competition the last thing and it meshes with the SEAHAWKS O. Line. Even if the aligns improved on I, think you have to get Russell Wilson moving around more have amuse play action more roll him out help Russ help the line by providing this moving target for the defense. But additionally, if you look at Russell Wilson's numbers, he is freaking fantastic with play action completion percentage rose seven percent passer rating improved twenty five points. His yards per pass attempt rose a full two yards more with play action ten touchdowns two zero interceptions with play action. I think you keep Wilson's feet moving and it's going to help this offense. Take that next step in in two thousand, twenty time. I mean just put your playmakers in a position to make plays, and your biggest playmaker is a man who touches the ball on every single offensive snap. I don't want to oversimplify how difficult it is to build. Offensive game plans are called plays to things that I'll never do in my entire life. But Common Sense says somewhere along the way, Russell Wilson has to be that guy defensively for the seahawks we know about the big off season edition you go out there your trade for Jamal Adams it gives them a guy that they're most likely going to give a Max deal to to try and recreate the glory. Days where the Legion of boom more or less patrol that defensive backfield you go out there you pick up a linebacker in Jordan Brooks which fits their mold in the draft from Texas Tech. We know the strength of this team defensively, Bobby Wagner, and Cagey. Right. They really struggled last year in the past defense giving up two hundred and sixty three plus yards per game, which was good for twenty seven. But I think a lot of that pain came from the simple fact that they only recorded twenty eight sex number that was second than elite behind only dolphins have the seahawks done enough defensively to at least make. Knit better knowing that the offense can be sneaky good and put up points on a somewhat regular basis Seattle's. Back Seven Has the potential to really you'll yielded to the big question marks the front four, they lost Quinton, Jefferson and free agency all along the interior of the line he was you know their elite pressure guy finished seventeenth in total pressures among qualifying interior linemen. That's a lot to lose. I think considering Seattle's twenty eighth and pressure. CLOWNEY has yet to accept Seattle's offer. There is some growing skepticism that he will actually sign it and I think Seattle's getting a little bit pissed off about. L. J. Collier, last season's first round. Pick didn't really see the field much a rookie. He needs to be a major player in your two along defensive line. The real concern I think. Within, the organization about the defensive line, they're not quite sure where they're gonna go to add these bodies but I can tell you gotTa dance around this a little bit. They they wanted somebody. Words wise. They pay shoes your word wisely a one hundred percent certainty. They're going to add somebody Seattle's reached out to Everson Griffen. They've reached out to clay matthews who you mentioned the rams lost last season underperformed a little bit. I, think they're happy to sign either. But they're also trying to light a fire under clown. He's asked to force them into a decision because right now they do have the highest offer still on the table. And he's living in La La land I think right now in his value is actually worth the loan positive when you can move it forward to twenty twenty as the front four is GonNa face an easier schedule of pass blocking offensive lines and easier schedule of Ground Games in two twenty, twenty compared to last season. So that could help offset some of these losses. The defensive line could suffer. The linebacker unit is one of the best. In the League we have Wagner and right you add a first round pick in Jordan Brooks there's some nice depth that the position as well. You have Burke Irvine and Cody Barton. I'm intrigued to see if wagner and right can kind of maintain the production as they age both had down seasons relatively speaking a year ago for them. Seattle gave up the second most yards second most receptions, two tight ends. Last season we're closely kind of monitoring this situation because we know wagner and writer aging a little bit they're having maybe potentially you know a touch more difficult time covering in space I think the the drafting of Jordan Brooks says that rights days are numbered they're. This secondary though. Man They have a shot to be very good Shaquille Griffin had a bounceback two, thousand, nineteen, trey flowers performed above average. We absolutely loved the Quinton Dunbar trade absolute robbery allowed a fifty-six six pasteurized. Thirty seven hundred. Well played. He did get himself into legal trouble and landed on the NFL exempt list. But this past Friday prosecution announced that they had insufficient evidence. To charge. Dunbar. So let's see what Goodell does. But I think that bodes very well for the seahawks. Getting him back his attorney. Doesn't seem to be in hot water because there was this little. Tidbit. Of information trying to bribe some. Of the witnesses that may have occurred. Bene- benefit the Dunbar. Emma. Obviously, the safety position makes a huge leap, not just by the obvious additional. Adams but. You can pair him now with quandary dicks and they acquired him around the middle of last season. I think that's a fantastic one two punch. Field they're actually great friends. Digs was atoms host when he visited taxes on a recruiting trip, but they complement each other very well on the field to if you look digs is going to play that free safety spot. He was an ace and coverage last season allow zero point one, five yards per coverage snap only Doron harmon was better i. think that allows Jamal Adams to roam around the box likely helps in an area that were concerned about with pressuring the quarterback Jamal Adams had forty seven quarterback pressures. The last two seasons from the safety position. We know how valuable that off ball pressure is very good chance. Seattle becomes an above average defense inefficiency this season. Especially, if they bring in a guy or to bolster that defensive line. Should be one of the most fascinating divisions in the entire League I. Think we have a ton of question marks even for the so-called favorites, top division and the forty niners and seahawks the rams trying to figure out who or what they're going to be on both sides of the ball, and of course, all of that tantalizing potential at least offensively for the Arizona cardinals to see if the defense can comply remember you can follow on twitter at Paine insider I'm todd firm and you can follow me there as well. But. Most importantly, they follow the podcast at the board pod and pain. After we break down four teams for those new listeners out there it is our final order of business that we hand off a nicely neatly packaged best bet as far as the NFC west is concerned, where are we going to identify our best value before the season kicks off in earnest on September tenth? So I'M GONNA be candid here it's going to be difficult to find eight bets and it's going to be difficult to find them within their own division. I can say since the last time we spoke we were waiting to bet one thing. and. It was based on the rumors that Davis white could potentially being potentially opt out. So just for all purposes we did Bet Buffalo to win the AFC East at about. Plus one forty plus one, fifty I think it's still playable down to plus one twenty. Especially when we mentioned at the top of the show, the the impact on some of those added opt outs from the new. England patriots the other thing that I am intrigued with with NFC west. Is Jimmy Garoppolo. And if you listen to the breakdown, we think more is going to be put on his plate. We like the addition of Jerick McKinnon in the past game when when you look at the schedule of defenses at the forty niners, you're gonNA face top five against the run very manageable against the pass and we know Kyle Shanahan always schemes. To put his offense in the best position based upon what the defense putting out on the field. and. So I think when you look at Jimmy G. His confidence stripping himself of the knee brace I think is going to be a big year for Jimmy J.. So I can tell you in terms of props and we don't love going over on props this year especially with the. The covert situation going on but I think there is some value in Jimmy G. going over thirty, eight hundred and a half passing yards as well. All right. You heard it from the man himself going back to the AFC offering a little bit of player prop opportunities to encourage folks as. To make sure you get the best numbers available and take full advantage of what's out there in the betting market. Any final words of wisdom pain before we close up shop on the NFC west this fine Wednesday morning that's in I. Think we're good to go. I'm going to pop on this hockey game and That's it. You only missed the first one seven, not a whole lot of action there. So you see we got four painted CIDER I am taught firm as always be sure to follow the podcast on twitter at the Board Pot and with a couple of props and futures in hand coming into the regular season, we'll see you at the window. Thanks for listening to the board, you can catch todd and pain every Monday Wednesday and Thursday during football season breaking down the biggest NFL and college football games, and to make sure you don't miss any free best bets subscribe to the board on Itunes Google play spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.

NFL niners cardinals Arizona Todd Furman rams NFC San Francisco Arizona Cardinals McVeigh Kyle Shanahan Seattle seahawks Jimmy G. Patriots Vance Joseph jets AFC Jimmy
"Did Kip have this storm?"

The Tony Kornheiser Show

1:16:02 hr | 2 years ago

"Did Kip have this storm?"

"Yeah. Previously on the Tony Kornheiser show. We'll give you fifteen percent off most of our food. Not most of it. I think all all the food. I don't know salads. Happy hour. Drinks. It's a rich fifteen percents not much bump it up say five percent every week. This thing goes on maybe. Might be. But it's fifteen percent today. Federal worker right out there winter Joe you're going to get fifteen percent to breakfast. The Tony Kornheiser show is on. Now, we are at chatter with Gary Braun, and Chris cillizza and Michael Kornheiser and Nigel. We we are here. We are doing this show at seven forty in the morning Monday, it'll drop much later than that. But that's when we're starting, but we are not open for breakfast today. We're not open today. We're here doing the show, but because of the snow which was a lot we're going to get into this later. But this was a lot more snow than anyone in town predicted. And a lot of it came late late last night not to in the morning late late much later than anybody thought it was going to be piling up. So we are closed until glad to know that for profit thing really worked out. Well, we didn't get we're not Niger was going to get back there and his past as short order taking orders right now hash brashly opened yesterday. We didn't have much business because everybody was home because nobody went out in that of snow. We still when we are open. We offer for the furloughed federal workers fifteen percent off their food in most cases, not happy hour circumstances. But in most cases, we do that. And I'm just going to go straight into the show quickly. Yes. You would say that. It's one hundred percent discount for people chatter today. Correct road only free. I've we're opening later. We have here right now. We don't have the ability to have breakfast. Gary Gary was driven explain who's here. Well, we'd love to give them breakfast. But we tough Brett Snyder from were DACA brewing company who you've probably mentioned on this before. And you've certainly met before. And Keith core. His head brewer at we're dacas here, and that has been the plan for some time is a huge little PTI fan. Great Keith listens while Hebrews in but they're not going to their nodding. So you can let the let him in. If he wants to watch the podcast. That's fine. So Keith has been wanting to come to the podcast for some time. And in fact, flew back from Florida last night in the water and the weather in the weather because for weeks, he's been planning to come. He hand picked this show. He wanted to come after the divisional playoffs. A good exciting show. Brought brought beer for the whole gang, of course, Shawn's here and high. Sean. So the plan all along was they were gonna come in. And Brett fortunately has Jeep otherwise I would not have been able to get here. We're going to get to the snowfall. This is very very local. I understand this is a national podcast stories about this is very very very very local. But we will get out of actually what we will start with though are the four games that led to the circumstance in which the the Rams will play in New Orleans next week and the patriots will play in Kansas City next week. We're going to go game by game. But we're gonna go backwards. Let's just go backwards because the most interesting game. Yeah. Was the saints game. The saints against the eagles was the most interesting game. Michael wilbon who will join us later steadfastly had the eagles winning that game. And Faust, Sean Jeffrey had not dropped that ball had not which led to an interception which sealed the game. They would have had a chance towards so simple. Yeah. That's that. They would have they would have had a chance in Jeffrey lay on the ground. Wilpon cursed him because we'll bond had that almo-. Well. That was pretty good game Philly that was you know, what that was. That was the Tommy Hearns Marvin Hagler fight because that was Philadelphia early on fourteen nothing Nick foles looks great. And then Nick foles threw an interception was at in the second quarter that shit. Agreed hatch on the radio interception. Threw interception and the saints were charged by that. And they went down the field, then fourteen seven and fourteen. Can't fake the punt. Over. Was a great. To their hill Hilton. He's he's he can do everything he has he's human amphetamine. Yeah. For head. Res not thrown the ball ten yards too short. He has a seventy five air touch on that that means wide open through two short. No wind indoors breeze. Not can't get it down there. Well, not what was he's not, Pat. My home. Is that Trevor Lawrence? So so the the eagles covered we'll get all the bedding things in a second. The eagles covered. They that was a really good game. That was terrible game the game before that was one of three bad games in a row culminated with the patriots against the chargers the patriots. And I remember saying this on TV the other day. That the most vulnerable team of the home team's was the New England Patriots because they had looked the worst heading into the playoffs of the Ford teams. They had they were the most vulnerable and the charges were eight and one on the road. And the only thing that I said beyond that was this patriots not gonna lose this game. They never lose this game. They just don't they are now twelve and one in that game that home game vision around their twelve and one with Bella chicken Brady, they have been to eight straight AFC championship games. It was seven nothing patriots. Then seven seven on an alarmingly wide open. Touchdown. And that was the end of the day. And then it was thirty five seven. It was an and was it. It would not have been thirty five seven. If not for a muffed. Kickoff was kickoff for punt muffed punt on punt. Yeah. And the patriots never let up and Bella chick. Never let up. And they didn't one time that kicked a field. They wanna kick any field goals. They will go on fourth all the time. They were going to bury the charges, which is by the way, smart and the Keita that game. They ran it. Very well, the key to that game for all of you people who think rob gronkowski's done. He may be done as a pass receiver. Plug Lyman kills chapel. So they ran Devlin and gronkowski at the charges and opened up hole after hole after hole and Philip rivers. Simply couldn't spun enough points. Couldn't create nuts down couldn't propagate the offense. That that game is one of those that if you're a gambling person, you you and you bet against the patriots freeze five minutes. You have to think what in. I believe Friday, just I think I said to on this various get it. Right. Four minutes into the second quarter. You're going to be saying to yourself. What was I think? Because I subscribe as you do the notion that the pats. Lose. They can lose that game lose stat of the week, which they mentioned which is Elon pretty good healthy. Yeah. For can't stay quarter Sony, Michelle they got a lot of pretty good players. So the stat of the week that you will hear as far as stats meaning nothing patriots have not won a playoff game on the road since two thousand six how many they had well, not not many on the road. One in Kansas City. And by the way, that of you wanna see that game. You wanna see Mahomes Brady? That's it this weekend was a was the biggest TV ratings win possible for next one hook. But both of these charges. I guess you could make some argument for, but it's essentially I mean, it is wanted to buy the seating. And got you've got the top two in both conference the charges scored and scored and scored, but it was they had no cheese over they had no chance his rivers final line. Didn't look terrible. But it was it was like Lamar Jackson last. What does it mean? It was like a bunch of right? When they weren't trying to stop them. Cowboys in the Rams Rams rental day. Two guys over one hundred Zeke Elliott didn't run for anything. It was seven six dollars. And that was it. And the Rams were better. The Rams the Rams are a better team than Dallas Cowboys g Henderson. Cut three times this year fat. Yeah. Hey, yeah. This was were supposed to have a good defense, and they'd have had a good defense, but they were run through and you didn't expect that. I mean, you thought while they're going to go in the no they didn't. And the first game was terrible. Indianapolis and Kansas City lock did nothing. That was no game. Kansas city. Random Bali threw the ball. Pat, Mahomes was better than anybody was at twenty one nothing early on game at all right? Well, it's no game. At all, the only points only killed school was a blocked. Punt. Right. I mean, they blocked a punt and right on it do anything last quarter into luck got some scores and was driving for another score didn't see to get up to the Linus grant touchdown. That would that have affected the point spread. If they scored that. No they lost by eighteen. Yes. So I don't think so. That game less. So, but I was struck by more. So in the saints game, which is Mahomes to Kelsey was open virtually every single play. Great in the saints game. Breeze to people win that game. Breeze in Michael Thomas. He just throws to Michael Thomas on every important place. Third downs long second downs. He just been Michael Thomas's consulate and think Mike one hundred eighty something arts, and you know, that the eagles defense was like, I mean, take gained junior is not the guy usually you think beach, right. So he stopped Michael Thomas could not stop him to every single ties. I team all pro. I mean, that's why that's why he's Michael Thomas. It was really really it was nice to see Marshon Lattimore to fix picks picks. And I believe it was Marshon Lattimore was it not who you rushed mercilessly for like a month after the. The play. I was like. Him. Him that play certain. That's the worst play ever made. Yes. No. It's terrible. Other guy. Championship game yesterday. But interesting to see that guy. So let me go over the bedding. Carville sat this one out. He'll sit everyone out because he seventeen sixteen in one. This was the week of Jeff Ma Jeff Ma was two in one. He lost the New Orleans game. But he won the Kansas City game. And he won the LA Rams game. And he had talked about the fact that because in the last fifteen games underdogs had one fourteen the spreads were being debt in a way that made them on tenable. And he was right. He is now he's two in one. He's four two one in the playoffs. This is a separate category playoff numbers because it's going to separate category. Four two in one in the playoffs. He's forty four thirty five and one with a total of three games to go. Forty four thirty the Dallas Mavericks at soon seven sleepy town. Chuck win four Chuck is now two and seven in the playoffs, which is not good. Now, he's sixty to fifty six and three. So if you bet with him all. The way through gonna win money. You cannot lose money with Chuck Todd. But don't January Todd is taking that Tracy McGrady playoff. He can still get to the hall of fame. But it's the Tracy McGrady never been to the second round hit set out. Leaking Chuck's play record to the occupant of sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue for tweet. What we? Playoff sad. Yeah. We're out loud. Reginal was four and not bad for a monkey twenty five thirty one one can't get five hundred. Yes. But again in January has quite well. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Monkey seventy two in the playoffs. Seven. Concentrates what I what I talked to him. He said he was just resting during the regular season. Save himself the posies. He was saying bagging, Tom Brady jackets. So I watched I watch everything watch games. And I would say that that of everything that I saw the one. And I think this is to Chris point the one that you just shake your head and go. Wow. Is is the patriots Brady? Just just. Wow. Because they looked bad going into the playoffs. They look bad. How does thirty three for forty three tastes, you know, think? Yeah. When you say, they look bad. I mean, you're grading on a curve. Yes. Relatively speaking. But and now Brady apparently if you believe his post game. Oh to believe that everyone thinks they're terrible. Only Tom Brady's Tom Brady into an underdog. Dude. You have your the over dogging every guests each other. Do you think do what the what the eagles did last? Do you think anyone will come up with any torch passing storyline for the AFC championship that won't be? Okay. So let's take a break. And then we'll have Michael wilbon when we return. I am telling you Kornheiser. You're listening to the Tony Kornheiser show. This is the casper. And you've heard me talk about casper for some time. Now, that's because casper makes expressly designed products to help you get your best rest one night at a time. You spend a third of your life sleeping. So you should be comfortable. The experts at casper were tirelessly to make a quality sleep service that cradles, your natural geometry in all the right places. If you're looking for love and all the right places. The original casper mattress combines multiple supportive memory foams for quality sleep surface with the right amounts about sink inbounds to breathe design helps sleep cooling regulates your body temperature throughout the night. Casper's only a mattress company, they also offer a wide array of other products like pillows and sheets to ensure an overall better sleep experience. Not only you getting the best sleep experience. But casper over purchasing experiences. Hassle-free they deliver right to your door in a small. How did they do that size box, plus free shipping and returns in the United States in Canada? And I will put in an ad for the dog bit. My dog sleeps beautifully on the dog bed the baby boy, he's ready to go in. To grow into the dog bed right now, you're on the floor with it machine hash out. It's it's really it's really quite nice felicitous high-quality podcast Casper's offering fifty dollars towards select matches by visiting casper. CAS PR dot com slash Tony using the promo code Tony at checkout. The only way to get fifty dollars towards select mattresses, and I don't know if this is true. But it might be the dog bit is by going to casper dot com slash Tony and using the promo code, Tony terms and conditions apply. You're listening to the Tony Kornheiser show county. Because we have a printer issue. She today. I don't have stuff in front of me telling me who is singing the song. But just said, it's red Whiskas. That's right. From Chicago from Chicago. Yes, any sent us this. This is lovely, isn't it? Yeah. He's done stuff with the guys from hitting the blowfish. Okay. Yeah. He's terrific. He said, hey, Dr Hoff happy new year. This might be a good lead in for will Bon I'm still sick over that bans law such a gut wrenching way too into game in terrific season. Keep up the good work and eat. It Cody Paci expressing Michael wilbon nicer, Cody parking. So so will on who had a very bad week not this week. But last week in terms of the NFL looked to have a really good and to this week. He had Philadelphia outright winning the game and describe your particular emotions as alshon Jeffery former. Bayer lay on the ground, by the way, let me just say that the Michael wilbon interviews brought to you by lows the new home of craftsman. So pick it up where else young Jeffrey's is laying on the ground force. It wasn't much different than it was the previous week when I was in Chicago at Soldier Field for the aforementioned, Cody parkey loss. Yeah. It was it was different. I vacillated. Philly down care about Philly. I'm gonna be. Because I thought the bears eagles winner was going to be the best team in the NFC about that team is going to get the Super Bowl. I was convinced that even I texted somebody that said, and I said Philly is going to hold New Orleans to twenty or twenty one point win this game. And they were gonna marching down the field. There were to like three turning points for the eagles. The the first one came when they should have been up twenty one nothing, but they could not pick up a football on a strip sack right of drew Brees when they were Ardy aboard team nothing Brandon Ingram. I mean, it was in his knocked it out who's in his hands that was huge, and they could not score then. And I just you know, I at fourteen nothing. My feeling was next score next gore wins game. And of course, releasing score. Get so I was I was just I hate I have nothing is by the way and nothing nothing. Like everybody else. I loved you breeze. I mean from what I know of them have nothing against the New Orleans Saints. I just I do have something against the obsession with. Points and scoring and passing. I just I hate it. I wanted the eagles to win that game. And be the best team NFC says they were the team to cut my team. So this is what it reminded me of what I said earlier Hagler and Hearns that the way Philadelphia jumped out was the way Hearn started that fight and that ended quickly by third round someone in the third round hag, which is not amount because her and said nothing left. I'm not saying the eagles had nothing left because they had something left. But that looked like it was going to be this. Unbelievable furious game by the eagles. And in fact, the interception help turn it around and the fake punt help turn it around. Right, right. Inability gathered the ball after the strip sack of threes. The interception all in fourteen nothing both. That's right. That's right. And then the, and then, you know, I I was saying, wow. Do you take? Penalty. You know, if if you are the eagles, you take the penalty and move them back. No, you don't. No, no. You don't know. Ten think you're about that. So although I'll say this about that will on and I agree with you. Charles Davis was making a big ruckus about that. It's like you say. Another chance, but especially on their own thirty. But you do you do have to understand the situation. Not that that was an easy conversion on fourth down. But you need to be prepared for that possibility to the game. Yeah. They've got a quarterback in the game. They got a wildcat guy in the game. And it's it's it's sports and one Payton's got a history with those gutsy so yeah, yeah. Sean Payton will make. So when you when you watch all of it, the first three games were nothing special. The fourth game was a good game. I three games are nothing special. But and I wanna get my chance to say this the notion that. The notion that the patriots even though they looked bad the last three or four weeks of the regular season, the notion that they would didn't you know, that they shouldn't be favored over the charges that the charges were going to have their way. This is just now not how it works in that game. Mike in New England. It doesn't work that right Sony. I'd like to have a stun gun. Go back all the idiots on television. Who were talking about what the charges could do the patriots? I mean, a real time. I'll miss it his junk for week, and I'm like charges won't even be able to stand up by the third quarter. And of course, they couldn't I was the most easily predictable situation. Just just why do people against Bella chicken Brady of win? When they do. It's so dumb. What got to me? And this is said all the time. I'm just not smart enough to know how it's gonna work. How Bella check is going to change things around. But Bella chick used Devlin as a blocking fullback, and he used gronkowski almost exclusively as a blocking tight, end and Sony. Michelle gained a million yards because that's what Mike that's what Bella check did against this team, which he thought probably was a little bit under-sized in terms of defense different next week. That's right. That's right. I it's listen people talk. About what? You know, what Kansas City can do and where the patriots voluble, and it's different because you're on the road. Yeah. Listen, I bet against him. Oh, you're not you're gonna tell by the way, both both games home team three point favorite over under fifty seven pick them, pick them tough. So you're you're going to you think New England will beat Kansas City in Kansas City. Wow. Only somebody I have sat in Kansas City. It when when the chiefs were favored when they were in thirteen and three seasons and the nymph. This was somebody different than in the team was coached by Marty. Schottenheimer who has a lot in common with Andy Reid, fine, fine, fine. Coach who could just not breakthrough in these big playoff games. And it was it was at least once maybe twice. It was John Elway was John Elway. And Dan Reeves in the end, they just couldn't beat them. And they were favored, and they had this that manager they had this advantage of that advantage. I guess the patriots there. Cool. Something and he's got a rookie quarterback. I don't case is a rookie. He's a rookie rookie quarterback. Yeah. He may be the greatest thing since like bread. Take care. It's like, you know, people. Six weeks ago thought that the Spurs had nothing they got nothing then done. They don't have a point guard. They don't have this. They don't have that traded. Tony parker. What they got pop. They got pop. These people have Bilgic I think don't check is more important to the equation and Brady Bill chick changes it from week to week to create his own Dr Frankenstein out of somebody else. Not quite as not quite as good. But yes, but Bella trick may see, you know, maybe that's speculation. I I don't think so. But maybe what about on the other side? What about with the Rams going to the saints? These teams that highly explosive offenses. But in the last say six weeks of play those offenses have been tamped down. They have down to they played defensive teams. I mean, right teams didn't know how to and neither one of them cares about playing in this came. So I you know, I I'm so disappointed in the NFC title game. Now, I'm NFC guy. Having lived all my life and into NFC cities. I just I don't even care about that game now. But I I don't know I guess the saints at home, I guess and now I can't be thirty five thirty three game. 'cause both of them won't care about the other side of the ball, the one the one thing that I saw in the game the Philadelphia game against the saints. Philadelphia's really a tough team they really physical. They were really tough last year. They got the same people. They're really tough. I'm not, and I know LA has Aaron Donald, but I'm not sure that the Rams are tough like that. And if you're not tough like that, then I think that Camara and Thomas, then then I think that they go for big numbers. What do you think? Mike. Yeah. Had to run the ball thirty five times next week. I just think that game is now it's just a show gain is just nothing. So the other game is the one you're involved in any other game. We'll do the game. It does it it needed it. I'm not seeing if because I'm from Chicago needed the bears or the eagles that's needed and needed that team you need to contract needed to be safe against bears or eagles Rams 'cause you need a tough guy team that would hit somebody in the mouth and al-shabaab Jeffrey ruined it L, Sean Jeffrey and Cody Parker early two thousand nineteen coats villa mean, good guy, or like, I will ask you this. You know, that's a lot of snow. We got yesterday relatively speaking. That's a big time. Snow what do you think? Greg Oden him. That's a big time. Snow really? Yeah. Forget went to the big time. Snow why got ten or eleven in my house. How about you inside? No, not in Saint let me repeat the question. Forgotten with the Binghamton. That's a big time. Binghamton now would have thirty or forty on the ground that's differently. But it's but it's but ten in a shot ten in shot willing to shot. It was two shots. It was Saturday and Sunday. It's a fair point. It was wasn't a shot. It was. Yeah. I got I got ten you know, I got out Chicago's have snowstorms of nine and ten all that often. They get a lot of little ones. They don't we looked this up a couple years ago. No, we looked at twenty a couple of twenty. Okay. The way DC gets an average of fifteen and a half inches of snow a year Binghamton eighty three we get a lot of fifty two or fifty seven something like that. I'll tell you what they get a lot. We give fifteen then let's let's see what how what happens in places like Chicago and Binghamton is this you reach kogo thirty six point in the year where it doesn't go to forty anymore. So whatever is there stays, and then there's layers added to its money on snow cleanup. Unlike this story problem our problem is it every year. It's knows him. 'cause you said we get an average of fifteen. So it's not Florida it every year. Everyone is so surprised that shouldn't be God close it up close it down. Yesterday since PM I get out. I drove a couple of times yesterday. Just 'cause I was so angry at alshon Jeffery had to get in the car. And Dr wander little bit. And Matthew said that don't was out here that's the year. Matty, and I'm out here because I learned driver's, Ed. So when I was five years older than you are now, I could drive in this every day of my life. I learned how to drive took driver's Ed from September to February. So that means three months at least of snow when I was fifteen learning drive. And of course, they close his school at six o'clock, and he's cheering the back of the car. So you know, what I now got the place. This is I think as great as Washington is for ten months year, just spectacular just July. August, I hate. That's it. I just hate being here on the few days it snows. I can't stand it because people are so irresponsibly week about a few inches of snow. I blame out and move on clean it and go to work city of transparency. Thank you later. Guys. I'm glad you guys are. I'm glad you guys ale to the court Heuser buckets. Right. We're here. Michael wilpon boards, and he wasn't just driving around. He was we know what he was doing. He was going to CVS to buy more razor blades to gargle. His voice this morning screamed, let's do the rest of the Lausanne lows is my new go-to destination where I can explore the latest innovative craftsman products, including their new v twenty power to battery platform cranston's v twenty cordless power to lineup features a high capacity lithium battery that's part of craftsman's interchangeable battery system. So it works with all tools in the twenty lineup giving you the run time you need the power you deserve the one battery system works on multiple products making the twenty lineup easy to use versatile. Do you think that you could take the lithium battery and put it onto a snow blower something like that certainly could try. Battery operated style nine one. And we'll wait to see how that turns. Turn. V twenty brushes power tools are proudly made in the United States or global materials in them. But they're made in Charlotte, North Carolina. They have brushless Motors delivering high efficiency, better Runtime, more power and greater durability for all of your projects, and you can explore the entire craftsman v twenty lineup. But you local Lowe's store you can visit lows dot com slash Tony. That's lows dot com slash Tony lows. The new home of craftsman. You're listening to the Tony Kornheiser show. These are the sunshine boys there from Chicago, Illinois, as we book Wilbur, which icago annoy bans, this is called glider pilot schedule, very good. They almost if everybody we have not almost everybody everybody. We have is very good. Well radio. Stuff. And you haven't heard it on the show. It's because Nigel in particular doesn't think you're very good. Yeah. He has notes he's willing to ship cold near. Tonight is the star maker. Well, how do people send in their music and get it place and us amused by emailing it to jingles at Tony Kornheiser show dot com. So we're in the news portion of the show, which is Nigel portion go ahead. Yes. And before into the news, proper, I referred to that Gary to Taylor swift. I'm sorry. I just didn't let you last song. When I come up with something new, and maybe we could get on the show. She's an ice kid though. Robinson like Mr Tony white mean start off with the Grammy's. Unlike unlike the which were the Golden Globes rather which were last week and sort of came upon us suddenly now it's night. It's actually tonight. The Grammy's begin a month out the Grammy show you singers month out and prep you for when this thing is going to be different the Grammy's promote better used to like watching the Grammy. I don't. The honest Donahue any month gives you prep time in the band's. So like, it's like big bunny like, I'm employees, bad bad. Be sure I'm getting ready on that stuff did say invasion of privacy by Cardi B. What's your favorite album of last year by talked about that a live? Yes. Constantly drag this X zombies with the two big break last, Jim. College basketball of very exciting win for Chris cillizza Johnstown, we evil us can I? With with less than two seconds to go. I thought the game was over when I found out that Georgetown went into overtime. And then another overtime and then won. I was utterly stunned. I saw that Malinowski had fouled out he found out relatively early. He didn't do anything. So and point. And then and everybody was sad. And the other team had was guy. Erupt one happening there up one we missed by those bad miss, by the way, right on the court. And the guy jury conjoint freshman. Oh, he thinks he's better than good. Yeah. We'll you doing. Yeah. Unchanged channel the kid from gate city from where did you hit the shock? We pull up. I'd have court. Thanks it. Bank to go Buddha's. Well, in Chris I had I had already made notes at this is another close loss, Georgetown. And no they now by the way Marquette coming in tomorrow night. Marquette is good this year. So that scores fifty against ranked twenty if you thought that that was exciting and for you that was tremendously exciting. I have so little did you see Duke. Yes. Did you see the end of Duke? That was great at Florida state. That's the third best team. Does reddish. Design Williams to injury. Yes. Play the entire second half. Good news for the bad cats. How do we do we need to go undefeated this week? Weekly or the team in the in the nine member America east. I looked at the scores in the Sunday page prince doesn't play game on a weekend. We have nine teams. Yeah. So they played four four. We were the one. The university of Phoenix not we played Strayer and we lost. Were there any other scores that you are? Seventeen enough. They beat northwestern Handley at Michigan. There's seventeen they're really good. They're really good. Really good. They're really good. There's about five teams at a really good. Did you eventually Michigan state will be really good? Because always only score that. I was really surprised by was Louisville who is not killing Carolina North Carolina at North Carolina. And that's Kevin max for that's the Xavier coach who's now at Louisville. Okay. Mac not Kevin max first year. I mean, I was not Marlin MAC either. Now, I was stunned. They're twenty five points. I mean, not a good game. Louisville's a good program. But not this year allegedly killed them turps at a nice win. In the house there. That's the big transfer situation. If Loxley gets Jalen hurts, it means they won't be able to pass. But they'll belly can't. Now, they'll matriculate the ball up the field. They can do that. He's a great college quarterback. What else in Penn lost their Stony Brook? Princeton lose the Princeton at Princeton rat pen. Oh, this is at Penn. This time that's bad own two on the season. Oh, but they beat Villanova. They've got that Villanova win who who was the first loss to know. This was a they lost to Princeton about a week ago. When you say oh in two on the season. Oh into against Princeton, their home and home. They lost them both their first two conference game there against wow. But with the tournament now Toledo early in the year, seventy seven forty five. Are you looking at Penn's history? Monmouth beat him by two. Yeah. But how they do against Villanova. They beat. They beat Villanova here in New Mexico. You know? You know? I know he's not there anymore. But I mean, yeah. Sure. Okay. What would he got? Maybe he's to football. Mr Tony, Terrell Owens on the Twitter last night said, hey at real Jerry Jones about time for a coaching change. Don't you think to playoff wins and ten years? Garrett isn't the answer and never will be way to compete guys, hashtag real talk. And I think somebody tweet about him and said, it was our grapes. And he tweeted back into that yet. Maybe a little that set suck got rid of me. And had Jerry thinking, I was the problem. So what does he go you worthy problem? So what does it really since I left, then he writes in parentheses jeopardy? Tune. He's terrible person. He's terrible narcissist. He's a bad guy. He's a team killer. He's a great talent. And he's all of those other things to the fact he didn't go to Kenton for the hall of fame. At least he didn't. I thought when you started that it was yet another tweet about how he's ready to play something push on his drive south pal outside his house. Today's decision day for Kyla Murray. Whether he will play with the as you go into the NFL draft and play football, the as have been authorized to offer him significant more guaranteed money to choose to Gary if you call him he's five foot nine I think I played baseball. What if you never get to the majors, then where's your money? All right. Can I when you're in when you're in the NFL the NFL, I'll give the NFL ago. I'll give it a go. Yeah. See what I can get the rookie contract. I'll know in a year or two, and if I got and then you can always fall back easier to fall back on the baseball unless unless leg is broken. Of course, got baseball. You gotta believe in your abilities. Right. I mean as didn't pay him four and a half and willing to whatever it was nights those and then be willing to pay more. If they think that he's not a guy who will least make the majors Griffin. I mean, you got to believe in yourself. And I just think football. I mean, how many football story careers and all that. Well Brady, I mean, they're just tell you that that by and large your career in baseball is more lucrative, and it is longer with steps in a big time quarterback in for the most part, and I know exception of quarterbacks bit here too. But. Your life after sports is considerably as a baseball player as a football player. Now. You're right quarterbacks. Get Hitler say base, Michael I would say baseball, and you have to think the position he plays makes it a little bit tougher for the guaranteed QB money upfront. But there's going to be the fast track for him to get to the bigs the war. You would be what he get there faster than than than when he should because he's not quite ready. And then he has no staying power, and then he sort of lost in both those professional rats with Andy Murray stepping down from tennis. Up your -bility. So my take on this from a Redskin standpoint is I can now see rock-bottom, unfortunately, it's not behind me. It's a head of me. The Redskins customer declares to draft. The Redskins take him at fifteen and he says, no, thanks. I'm gonna play baseball that. And we'll be right bottom for the Redskins. From there. We can build up right Nigel. Are you doing the Bryce Harper story from USA today front runners? Five hour meeting with his wife and Boris yesterday. USA today reporting that they are the favorites to lend clear favorites to land break, I will be at least we want to see him. I won't like him. I won't Phillies is a real day. That is the street. Yeah. Did you watch to the Washington Wizards yesterday against Toronto down over twenty? Came back to. Great overtimes against a good. This is when they beat Milwaukee onto Toco did not play in that game. Right. Toronto had its play. Oh, yeah. They had Lowry. They had coli Leonard. Beal went for forty three fifteen and ten that's that's pretty impressive and wilpon and I had this conversation yesterday. Now, I know that the raptors beat the wizards in double overtime by one point. I was a Bacha hit a shot three. They down you hit a. And they had a shot at the end. But it they they they did not get the ball in as well as they should have. It wasn't clean. It was twice and open. I mean, okay Grachev green throws it to Otto a little low. But he's opened at the at the three point extent. It's very short very short. They're better. This is not possible. It's not possible to be better. Without your best player. They are better without John wall. They look for each other more without John wall, Bradley Beal is selfish buddy has to be in that situation. And it's paying off. They are better without John wall. John wall will come back. They will be worse. They're stuck with the sky for the rest of time. It's impossible for me to tell you how you can be better without your best. You think they're not? No, I think they they are better are better. No one could argue they are not better in the short term as they were last year without John will in the short term. The question is is it sustainable? I mean, not only were they better with John all the guy who replaced him yesterday shut to thirteen with had four point seven, two assists and thirty six minutes. It's not like last year Seto came in and sort of triple W he's up and down and Aretha yesterday one rebound away from a triple double. Which would have been the first time ever in wizards history. So I don't disagree with you that here currency better. Well, the ball moves it does. Yeah. The team. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. They're not a good team when he's out there. I also think I he see this learn from it. No no last year. No. No, I think his demeanor. They lost his pointed out his relationship with Beal. I think are problematic to his demeanor on the core is like all that stuff. What's clear when you have the team they have now is Bill is that alpha dog auto is a good second, Anna. And then you got a bunch and he got Thomas, Bryan, who's an active body. But everybody has a very clearly. Clearly defined set of roles. You know that if the game is tied. Beal is getting I sort of have a theory that Beal needs to be able to play without a conscience. And he can't when wall. Yes. Tangle did. Talk about playing without a conscious, and we don't need to go through all the NBA. But look harden is that I think the MVP right now heard was one for seventeen from three yesterday's one for seventeen. What else? The playing this. Well, without maybe the best play other than wool, and that's Dwight Howard. He comes back. Never game. Thomas Brian has been gold. There's no point Thomas. Bryan is good as imagine. When you only need them. Eighteen minutes of game after white Howard can play effectively hands. Samalikho happy trails. Mr Tony JD Gibbs oldest logical disease. He's been on yourself, but dealing with for years. I don't really weren't. Sure. How he got into? What was going on? Yeah. All right. So do your Florida. Oh, yeah. This is I thought it was Florida. It's actually from a Wichita falls in Texas State of Texas police received a co Friday morning at nine AM employees of a WalMart requested offers to banning woman from that store after she had reported been drinking wine from a Pringles can for several hours everybody while riding on an electric own. I wonder. Ninety electric car normally full people with handicaps. Wait. You don't know that she's not handicapped. That's true. No that I don't know that for fact, she just took a car started drinking wine from Pringles. Can I'm okay, we making something that you're just driving in that in that she's drinking like you see someone zooming around card. How do you know, it's wine in the Pringles? Can we have to go? Jay, say drinking the lines. And put it in the Pringles candidacy by the one of the two for one. I don't think she got the one at WalMart. I think that was a self supply way of Pringles can is not it's not that much. But it's it's. That great. You know? I don't think that you can get loaded completely loaded on one the warrants me. The WalMart employees told the police that she'd been riding around the store's parking lot since six thirty AM. Okay. Doorbuster. When officers arrived, they found the woman in a nearby restaurant at which point she was arrested just notified that she'd been barred what she do what what what would the recipe shrunk in public? But she wasn't disorderly card around drinking print can't go to that WalMart anymore. That's the side. Let's get outta here. We will come back with old guy radio and an old guy. We're gonna talk about the snow and we have conflicting opinions here. I'm Tony Kornheiser. This is the Tony Kornheiser show. This is so no sad. And it starts with their. We hope you enjoy your Sonos home. Sound system are play bass will put you at the center of all your favorite TV shows and movies, plus it plays music. So you can go from watching the game the blasting victory song, the Sonos one blends great, San with Amazon Alexis, so you can use your voice to control music, podcasts and more just ask we chose you to do this. That's me because we like how personality comes through on your podcast. We'd like to hear you talk about your personal experience with Sonos in your own voice. And engage with your listeners the way you would on any other topic. And so I will I have the Sonos system that Michael put in. I don't know if they know how you engage with your audience. Okay. Do you put in the system? Yes. And it's a lovely system. It is lovely. You install it, Michael. I did. Sonos play music and boy legs. How would you describe the quality of the Sonos system in very high quality, very high quality and the setup could not have been easier. Mr. Mr. cillizza. So and it says it says did you ever use voice control in your Sonos one day? Alexa for game scores of sports. No, no. I don't do that. And let me just give a personal story here. I am not one of the people who mixes technology. I don't mix anything last night at a fabulous dinner where Ron Elizabeth Elizabeth made. How would you describe that bred the best bread that I ever had? Did you bring us right now? Honestly. Yes. So the desert steep was a combination of peaches, and strawberries, I don't eat that. I don't eat peaches, peaches can't touch anything. They can't touch anything. So I'm just getting to the point that I don't talk to Alexa. The best is grabbing what he will not eat the baby boy, booties happily downing these peaches. Ann's plane. I don't mix food or technology. I don't do that. And it leads me to the baby. Boy, thank you for bringing the baby boy up virtually every time the baby boy comes over because he's now in the phase of walking around and touching and he's transporting and packing taking. Yes. Stuff from column and putting it over into column. The schemes hold puts his hands on the Sonos. He puts it on. And then suddenly instead of needing only number eight on sound you need number thirty seven on sound because what has Buzi done. He's just turned off your system. Yeah. So, and I I, of course, turn it back. Yes, he's unlinked the Sonal system from the TV speakers. So. Yeah. Trying to play both. So I would say to everybody out there who may not have a one and a half year old grandchild to learn more about Sonos home sound systems. Go to Sonos S O N O S O N dot com. That's Sonos dot com. You're listening to the Tony Kornheiser show. This is an honor of Chris. Were doing this guy radio. This is supreme this is when van Ross is with the supreme. Oh, yeah. Will you explain why we're doing this song? Exactly. Yes. Because in nineteen seventy at the frontier hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada, which that was fifty that was four ninety nine we're done years ago. And I believe the frontier was run by Moe green to check that certainly possible before that last massage the Supremes played the last concert with Diana Ross, and she introduces replacement Jean Terrell onstage. Sister of Tammi Terrell, Ernie Terrell. Oh know. On she would perform one more time and the twenty five TD special in nineteen three. But this really was the one with Michael Jackson, isn't it? I believe it is Billie Jean. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. But this is the last real nobody really remembers anything. But that with the Jackson Five at that. If you wondering where they go the dance moves, you know, the hand up like talked to them before the first TV televised performance of the single by Paul Williams. And Melvin Franklin. What you try this? So I said this is dedicated to Chris you explain why. Well, I mean, I did spend an afternoon with Diana Ross. That's actually an evening. I scare you phrase that. Yeah. Good point. I stayed at her house in college. I was dating a woman who was best friends with one of Diana's daughters. Not the actress story this Russia's another one. They went to Georgetown. And we went and stayed at her house in Greenwich, and it was lovely. I swam what she was. She was lovely and and very like a little bit a little remove. She wasn't like hanging out with me. But when I was very pleasant I played with her day had young boys. Young ish Suns at that point. Who were you know, are now I'm sure in their twenties beautiful home when you walk down the hallway to go to the boys game room, where they had arcade and stuff all of the gold records was real is that I was a dumb. Twenty any as holding up to paper, though. Yeah. I got those over under. Yeah. I didn't I was a young lad sing it all tour and later that woman became my third wife. Let us promise. This. I promise to talk about the snow in my tremendous anger, which will be blunted by my son who will say that. I'm stupid for doing these things, but let me just begin this way on Thursday Friday off, and I was going out to the beach, and I was going to to to see about the mold to see if the mold was remediated in my house and a word that I had gone a lot of decades without ever hearing. And then I heard it, and yes, the the house look great. There is no more mold inexpensive word. It's very expensive. It means to clean your house of mold to the tune of about twenty thousand. Okay. Twenty K. So. So you could have had mold removal for third of that. I was very needed remediation. Okay. I was very interested in when the snow would start on Saturday because I was going out Friday. I was going to come back on Saturday before the snow came back, and I was very before. The snow started falling, and I was very interested to how much snow we would get. And I watch Doug camera number one fan. Boy, Doug camera on channel four on Thursday with a sort of a hangdog look on his face saying that the threshold for sledding was three inches, and he wasn't sure we would get two three. He thought we'd get to three. But that was that. It was not going to be much of an event. I saw Melia Draper say this is not a big time event. Don't worry about it. There will be no school closings. It's just not a big deal. So I left confident on Friday morning went out to the beach that the snow would start at about three or four o'clock on Saturday. I'd be back long before that. And it was not going to be a big deal. When I got back the forecast. Had changed to four to six inches in the metro area four to six inches in the metro area. And that would have been okay total. But at my house yesterday at my house yesterday. I shoveled Ron came over and shoveled at about five to six inches at about ten o'clock in the morning yesterday and in the afternoon, and then there was a period of time with with light snow falling. No big deal in the afternoon. Twelve in three lights in the afternoons. When games were going on. I'm just going to tell you that. I think I got twelve inches of snow in my house. I really do and everything that was shoveled yesterday was worthless by last night and certainly worthless by this morning, and it was a big enough snow that it confounds the dog the dog can't find any place to make because the dog can't sniff. The dog has to stick its nose all the way down in the snow and still doesn't get any sense that it can really use. I believe that they were hopelessly hopelessly inadequate in their predictions. I believe that they had it wrong. All the way up to the end. They just continued to have it wrong and wrong and wrong. And I hope Melissa malay-. I hope she's happy. I hope she's happy doing snow angels. Yeah. I hope she got into work today with with whatever car they had to send for and as of yesterday at yesterday at noon or two or three the main roads were fine. And Michael, you think you think? I'm wrong in being this critical. I think you're correct in being critical. But you're misplacing the timeline. You should not be mentioning any forecast from Thursday or Friday at this point because it did shift a little bit later. I think you need to be a little heavier in your criticism of yesterday's forecast. After three pm we make the decision to come over to your house because they say there's one to two inches of snow remaining in the system at that point. We'd already had five to six we'd already taken care of the drive of the sidewalk will get into sidewalk etiquette after this. But there is another four to five inches after three P. I had to go back out, and there's still accumulating snow until nine when you're trying to. When you're trying to make travel plans even locally that to me is where the big misses. I don't think you can really hold much weight with what they're saying on Thursday because that does continue to change. And I do think you need to recognize capital weather gang still does it very good job. All the all the TV radio people. They just missed yesterday afternoon. There were there were there were two distinct events where I live. There was a five to six inch snowfall Saturday night into Sunday, which they essentially nailed I thought yes, they said one inch between seven p in about eleven to midnight. And then there was an there was about four hours of nothing. Clear roads, it was fine. And there wasn't a nother five where I live. I had eleven inches another five to six inches. Yes. They have that. Which was completely uncalled for as as recently as Sunday morning. They were saying a winter storm watch in effect through one or maybe it was four o'clock on Sunday. Then as the day went on that became six, and then it became eight and then at eight they were saying it was going to snow until midnight, which it extensively where I am did yesterday. So that I'm I'm kind of with Michael and kind of not I mean, I felt they were completely on the first one. In fact, I had exchanged with Kevin yesterday. I haven't seen it. I'm going to clean it up and read it to you briefly. But I said at ten ten I said, I wanna clean up when there's no more than two inches remaining. Because it'll just if you got cleaned. This is ten in the morning and in the morning yesterday. Please let meteorite I can do this. And she has I don't wanna miss the game. I wanted to get it done before the football. And he said it noon one two three more. Went out. So I went out and did it, and I was I was fine for a couple of hours it stopped. So it was at twelve fifteen. He sent me that at one fifty seven. I said, thanks all good at seven fifty three. I'm trying to think how much I can get away with saying here. But at some fifty three I'll just say something. Next. You freaking stink explanation point. I have shoveled twice since you texted me one two three more. Most recently at halftime of the second game. I now have three plus on the ground, and it's falling steadily where ten inches here. And I'm going to crush on Tony show tomorrow. And he wrote back we have over a foot where I am may have been a little bit off on that one. We'll sell a place. It's always about the banding. So he's on the bed, depending that's where it becomes irresponsible. So we're leaving your house and we'd felt totally comfortable driving over. And frankly, if you were smart and careful driving home was fine to as we're getting into the car. They shut down metro bus services because up and down Wisconsin avenue. One of the main north-south roads consonant Connecticut enjoyed blesses were slipping and getting stuck now, obviously, I'm not in a in a bus. But that's a big difference. Once you get above that threshold of the seven or eight that they thought there. I I. I was and remain in raged. This is ridiculous thing. It's not I went out in the morning like a good dolt and I- shoveled in there was a ton of snow at my house in Fairfax county. I then go out with my wife, we go to the mall with my kid because my other kid is at the wizards game we go to the mall. My the kid nothing is open. So now, I'm in raged even further nothing is open at the mall, the mall is open. But no, Stu no reason for noon. Yeah. There was no reason for that at noon yesterday. The roads crossing in front of my six years trying to get it to bogging. They were ready for that. I made like pre-treated roads. I was banging on the I was not happy. Solicits shovels. He does the single shovel with me track. I'm the house. It is a mathematical pattern. It looks like an editor drawing. It's very complicated. I go back out there. It's like five. I'm like, oh, it's picking up a little bit. I go back out there. And I I do the push because there's like an inch out there. Go back out there. Two hours later, there's another four inches. And I you know that movie the Christmas story where the dad goes in the fix the furnace. Yes. That type of situation words that no man should utter. I was so angry. Honey, you're the kids. It's not not. So and then today when I'm coming in here Virginia, I guess we don't plow their nothing, man. The rival. You see my I tend to be very critical of whether people all the time because I think they get it wrong more often than get it. Right. As a political dicator? I'm very careful of critique. Oh, Michael's position. Is it doesn't matter what they said on Thursday as long as what they said on Saturday or Friday was was apropos of the changing weather condition. I keep track of everything, and I got an you you can art that. But you're allowed to make changes to that forecast. The issue that you have is you're taking in too much data. You're looking at your phone, which is not giving you any reliable sense of what's going to be happening in your neighborhood is if it Sankara saying, you're saying Accu weather on my phone says, I'm gonna get gem. Plus, Nagla weather AccuWeather is always it gives you the percentage of how much snow is going to went up. It went up all day. It started out there to be. Maybe we should wait six inches or more. And then it was all the way up inclusive of ten or eleven inches and in my neighbor in the two zero one five I am convinced. I have at least ten and problem. It's eight to twelve no one had less than eight and a half. And I'll say this about forecasting because I spoke to Kevin into that conversation next weekend. He saying this big one big one, and this is not going to be gone. So that means it's that means them over until March. I hate the snow so much. Well, move say big one. Well, a foot and then cheap freeze situation one for ten or twelve days. So it doesn't go away. Even even try to Inter's here. What's great driving in today Assad dad show up in the four by four, thankfully, but all he all he had done this morning was do the quick ice grape, right? Where you're is gonna still three. Hey coming off hitting your. That guy. Okay. You with a foot of snow on your roof? No, not a foot because I don't know. Because you. It was the new snow from about sokaia clock on. All right. We will take a break. We'll have are we capable of doing you mail. Sean is fixed the printer fantastic, Sean did a great job, and we will have Email in jingle. I'm Tony Kornheiser. You'll listening to the Tony Kornheiser ship. Who's that is streghten from Seattle just one name so sting. Do you grandpa while I never made it to the whistling big leagues. I still enjoying doing it in my spare time, please accept my humble. Whistling addition. That's streghten streghten testing before we get to the mail bag. Let me take Michael wilbon for coming on the show today. Thank our sponsors Sonos. Casper mattresses and lows. Remember, listen and subscribe to new and archived episodes of the Tony Kornheiser show where every listen to podcast including apple podcast Spotify and Google play. If you listen to show tunes, please leave a review from Nick gun placid, New York, and it's cold up there, attach, please find my proposal for the mural chatter. I'm veiled start as soon as possible needed Cilicia. It's picture of crystallization in a pair of boxer shorts. It's it's. Stands pickles. We are. Ideas for murals. We are soliciting ideas for a number of tasteful nudes. If anyone Tony Beason in Cincinnati grandpa. Let me get straight you wanna free mural at the chatter based upon the following scenario. I'm not going to pay you. But when you die you'll receive total consciousness consciousness, so as an artist you got that going few, which is nice PSI still have some people in cyber have crushed you for soliciting for feet free mural versus Pang. I mean, there's until two. Yeah. Don't kill that. I just this is a chance to get you work. You need to know space too. It's not like you're going to be exploiting this personnel. Shakes come on from sully from Boston never reveal. I've got no ability to draw paint the mural myself. But I got an idea that maybe local artist could run with forty feet of crystallises sewn together, you mean, centipede style. So the trillion over and over again, Kevin Hampton Virginia longtime listener of the show since he SPN days. I just like to say a love the way the show has changed since she left radio slobber slobber golf, my dad died once golf slobber slobber Buzi. Well, it's really nice that he liked it bogged the frady's in Tucson Arizona as mentioned regarding the scathing Walpole review of imagine dragons, see below from Tom shales review of Kathy Lee Gifford Christmas special. No, he did this all the time. This is nine hundred ninety eight what's the difference between the twenty four hour flu in a Kathy Lee Gifford Christmas, special twenty three hours to catch either one if you could help it, but when CBS refuse to make this year's addition of the agonizing event available in the Vance TV critics one such critic instead of being grateful for the. Unintentional kindness was tempted to tune in any way to see how we're if things have improved. He should've known better big mistake, the special had more or Haarer than holiday glow and prove punishingly similar to previous efforts. In other words, it might have been called. I saw what you did last Christmas. From dog Quincy in crofton, Maryland. I wanted to let you know about a great deal. We have an empty table in our house about three feet by eight feet. And we're looking for local people who want to sit around and do a podcast wouldn't have to be much nothing like the process or anything. Just a good opportunity for local podcast. It's like you. There's no pay. But perhaps we could use this as a way to hone your skills at resetting the board trouble-shooting forced updates. What have you? We're giving away table space for you to do a podcast. You don't wanna miss out again, no peck. So okay. So this is about the mural everything is about the mural tone to it. That's okay. But I don't mind you mentioned that the process a lot of people have have the rookeries. Bron film about Rufus essentially draft Klaus the money didn't land in the account. What you can do about that. We're for Rufus, but we are kneeling Raul. I want to congratulate Nigel on Thursdays. Great throwback show because nothing brings back the style. Joe of listening to the five seventy AM show on a small transistor radio to a single ear. But then mono, podcast brilliant. Tom Maceio Boston late. Well, you work by way of new Hyde Park on Long Island two and a half years ago. I mailed you have to listen to you and solicit insult Prius and backpacks which owned at the time despite being a man over forty. I no longer on a Prius. Does that make me more of a man or the same amount of a man does he same amount from where sandals agus in Frederick, Maryland? Has anyone checked the browse about for Carmelo Anthony lick satellite leg Papa Theam? In paris. France on Thursdays podcast, you casually asked your son. What have I got a four wheel drive that serious what young people referred to as a baller few things are more one percent of the not even remembering everything, that's. In your garage is I don't have garage your inspiration all of us who aspire to someday successfully rise, the middle class respect respect tipping from Scott's lesson. Jer rights talk about a tilted Plainfield. You have a pro picking games, and he gets to pick which games he wants the bet week after week the Amador Chuck Todd the most difficult games to bet and Todd is winning. Then Maas says he's catching up during the playoffs. And I'm like Todd again gets the skip the games that are too hard. They're not even close Todd is the pro maybe Masha to meet the press and Todd bet the process come on, man. What are we doing PS, Chuck if you're looking for someone to talk on meet the press on climate, I am lesson Slesinger senior adviser for federal fares. If you're out of your bike, everyone is always do wear white. We're not gonna be this year. Still. She call. Not. Sure. Holding. You will may go your mom. Friday. Show. We should get allows. We have a wall. John about. Hello, ma'am. Beta back. Chips. Them. Foul. Stew without. Loaf? Numb. Now. Loss mum. Making. So oh, yeah. Wow. This guy stood up. Are you got to go the bathroom? Know. Peaceable is just so hard to buy a women's no. You have a endless days and just to explo-. That there was. That there was. It's bigly sky Nordic guy. I think I at gall yawn. And in single that is no doubt of Domo secrets Nomo say. There is. Saal? Shoe? Will love her shoe. And have faith that so round though, well-intentioned may be. But I think it so mad. Nominate someone will sing back. There is. Now. On a sound. On. Giles scare me Saab scene. How? Scaling over of tree. You have now.

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