18 Burst results for "Toby Carlisle"

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

08:03 min | Last month

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"The i think toby saying like very very important because all our time when you when you see people that have like the machine learning model that works for this smaller my value is bigger than your value or whatever the heck people are out there saying a lot of times when you actually forensically look at. What is this thing. It's implicitly adding stuff that has been winning so like oh you you know. Your value strategy is not toby's value strategy. It's actually different this half like high momentum or like intense quality buying and no kidding. It outperforms like hardcore toby strategy. Because it's fundamentally different. It's not better. it's just different in muslim. Time especially people like machine learning space because they can't really understand what their systems are doing. Their indirectly catching dynamically different factors. That have worked so it looks better on the back test but now you have to have. High reliance on that system being able to regime shifts in a robust way like switch from deep value to deep value but with a lot more momentum or whatever it is that's awesome because it back test better but do you think your machine learning algorithm is going to be able to robustly time that the next time i just wanted to value to become momentum's so i don't have to change. Yeah there you go. That's a good question. What do you guys think of the sort of value rotation thesis that may or may not ever come to pass in which case maybe value does become momentum. I'm just die of pleasure. If that happens experienced that it's been been investing professional semi professionally since two thousand ten says being along kind of whole since then for it hasn't really caught any massive out foreman since then it sort of phenomenon of the early two thousands and i'm embarrassed that i'm a momentum. Value golic jumped on the bandwagon after being working and now if they said great type of mikhail seminars racist like he's the worst road in two hundred years of valley. It certainly feels that way. He space at a press Crusts books for him any friends. These i think that at some stage in when i look at the portfolios as a value guy. If i roll up the portfolio and i look at my portfolio. Compared to the market i think every metric it's cheaper on every metric it's growing faster on every metric and it's got a high dividend yield and so. I think it's some sort of stuck that out by expecting that stock to perform. I think at some stage that happens. It's just as a lot of momentum in this market at the moment there's a lot of tech momentum in this market at the moment and that will persist until it away and is really nothing you can say about a with toby. Like i had bad timing. I was a value investor in early. Two thousand mixed it up for skill in an after the fact i realized like oh. Can you actually time. The value premium by opinion does not really unless you got lucky to start stock picking and you happen to have a value philosophy around two thousand. You think it's amazing strategy. You try to systematically. Can i predict when the premiums outperform the next premium. That seems unclear to me. But i do like it as a strategic allocation. 'cause the toby's point gravity should matter at some point cashflows all that stuff you know in theory fundamentals should matter but markets were seeing and you've seen throughout the history of the world cinnamon animal spirits lotta times matter a lot more than gravity. That's just the nature of the beast. I guess charlie munger has a really something. I think about a lot of quote about this. And he said that sometimes stocks will trade on the value of their use of cash flow and as a as an actual business and sometimes they will trade as rembrandt's their markets. Where it's a rembrandt and there are markets where it's the use of the cash flow and i think just recognizing kind of watch market. Are you in a rembrandt market. Right now helps you to be a little bit more patient as a description. Revalue guy jay. Do you think it takes for the Or are we already there. I don't know. I mean there's been so many head fakes it makes it. You just don't even want to whisper it for fear that it would disappear on me right. But i i agree. I think the the question that i struggle with is does that happen. Because it's a crash across everything and then maybe what was value like you said earlier is not historically against the cheapest dessel the most absolute layup. Cheap that it's ever been. It's sort of middling as far as the historical data said of how cheap the cheapest is does that get a little bit cheaper and everything else kind of catches down in which case. That's where i like having some cash on hand for that kind of scenario but if the jaws close it sure would hurt to miss that value rotation when you have been waiting for it for so long and i think this is where to me. I i try to keep absolute value in my mind and not just relative value. I see a lot of. I would call slippage in what someone thinks as cheap based on. Well it's cheap. Compared to this other thing today that is not cheap at all whereas if you go and try to use a little bit longer term kind of historical was this cheap. Relative to all of the opportunity sets that have existed in time the pickings get quite a bit slimmer. But i think you're a little bit more disciplined about what you buy. Program is for us just randomly watching some of the. I think it was bloomberg has some tiles on the tv. Last night everybody had gone to bed. Offense discussion of deutsche bank. Like he's one of the heads of economic system that took him about. You know the right spray argument. That low rights justify high valuations like. I've never really been able to sorry fastness. You're welcome with just missing you too. Yeah yeah the lot downer and then took to clean. He said something like a thing that can show up. I can brute fullest connection and he was going to write a paper to that effect but or like he's little blog post christmas perspectives. But never it howard hasn't come out yet and then i'll just audit look at the cape against interest rates like this just eyeballing you can see interest rates start high and like nineteen eighty and the law as i have been now and you have cape free that In two thousand. And there's another little bump in two thousand seven is another little today and that doesn't make any sense at all this looking at interest rates so that's not that's not helpful in the deutsche pointed at like the headline of interest rates and low interest rates in europe and multiples in buzzer those countries. So i have no idea anything that used to know. I don't know anymore. The confusion stems from just the dcf math in the problem. That interest rates are highly correlated with flo growth in so so the issue is all out sequel low interest rates. Agassi stocks are cheap however if low interest rates are also highly correlated with poor cash flows while now it is not all else equal so this us if the value stocks cash flow growth is coming down and the discount rate is going down. It's hard to assess whether it's good or bad for value which is why empirically you see no relationship because when interest rates are going down. It's us because it means there's you know poor cash flow opportunity sets in same thing when interest rates are going up while if that's indicative of real cash flow growth. You know. maybe that's good. It's just the intuition of all else equal or the assumption. Laws equals what i think. Trips people up on that logical trap of interest rates. May not you can pay a hundred times for stocks. Well not really unless you're idiot. That doesn't make logical sense at all. You gotta to..

charlie munger europe Two thousand Agassi deutsche bank two hundred years christmas Last night today rembrandt muslim two thousand around two thousand one jay two thousands toby ten nineteen eighty times
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

08:19 min | Last month

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"About multiple times in the show. So you're looking at. What are you paying for your earnings. And then because it's over the past ten years is just for cyclicality and also for for inflation and so it's a very public metric. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on that. Because whenever you when if you look at the ratio and we make sure linked to that in the show notes you know it goes back to eighteen seventy right so it looks like it's a very very long time serious so it should be somewhat able to predict what's going to happen because it's after a look at valuations and then at the same time. You'll probably hear people arguing that well we at the very end of long term interest rates cycle. So how much can use. That's historical data especially considering that it's not just a question of interest rate being lowest. They are right now. It's also question of what will they be in the future. And i guess there was a consensus in the mountain right now. That is probably going to stay there for some time. And you have people like you saying well. He of a fifty might be applicable. I think he was talking more about conventional p not necessarily about the cape fear but because of the low interest rates. So what are your thoughts. On that. Jake i find to be very compelling as an idea i mean i liked the smoothing over a ten year time period or currently in the thirty five times neighborhood which is pretty rich on the the data set. I think it got up to forty four times in ninety nine but japan in nineteen eighty seven. I think god up to what sixty six times cape something like that and before that it had not been over twenty five. I find it to be very logical but as a timing mechanism. i don't think it has a lot of it. Can't do a lot for you. Although maybe make the argument that maybe we'll just have the wrong timelines when we're thinking about these things. I saw this study that that looked at starting cape ratio. And then how did that perform over the next one year five year ten year and twenty year and the one year it is just a complete scatter plot right like the distribution. All over the place. There's no there's no value to it at all. By the time you got to a five year starts to tighten up along the line. That looks like tells you like. Hey this cheaper starting the better the returns and then over the ten year it was actually pretty marketed. Like tightens up quite a bit. There's a lot of value to it. So if you are thinking in five ten year increments. I think the cape is very useful. But if you're like most investors. I think these days you're thinking quarter to quarter. It doesn't really tell you anything it's not gonna help you there. What's interesting. Is that over the by the time you get out to the fifteen or twenty year. Mark that slope of cheaper starting price to return. Actually start to flatten. And i think that has to do with you. Know you've had twenty years from a good starting point of cheap the quality of whatever it was starts to then be what dictates how it turns out maybe like return on equity instead of just starting price. So which sort of matches what. I think you would expect if you were being logical about it. I find it very interesting but not very useful. What the cape ratio doesn't really change anything. I do strategically or tactically was definitely interesting. The think about share. I'm basically the same but as wisdom. I of what should and it makes me feel sick when i see how high is doesn't impact how i invest in the market. The problem that you have is that. I think that japan i think one hundred times. I might be wrong about that. That's my recollection at a hundred times. China one hundred times the us at forty four times at the peak the dot com bubble wasn't really try. It could have gone up to a half times to really ring the bell and the fact that something is i think david on a great line racists. Something like the something's today times i've evaluated is no list silly than something. Big free time value to five times. I think this is something. Like tesla I think it could be twenty times. I've evaluate an office. It was insane at ten times. I've about said it doubled from there and it's gone up ten times last year so definitely the wrong person to be asking about that coast of jake. Why don't you go ahead and pitch your topic. Oh i very selfishly. Since i had two guys who are kind of quantitatively minded writing terrific book together quantitative value. I wanted to know for myself. If you guys had any thoughts about sort of the future of quant looks like however you define it your definition but you know i mean is it. Unique data sets is it or machine learning. Is it a better thin. Slicing of factors is it. I don't know something else. Maybe even like a return to basics like much-maligned price to book like if everyone thinks it's crap does that mean it's might start working again Be curious to hear to experts. Talk about it or have respect for the behavioral areas that we will make in the marcus particularly with stress than with typically stressed at the times when you need quote must which is when the market's down a lot you should be behaving in a particular way. Soy i think the description that you get started me tying my hands the mosque. That's really what. I have tried to write a book with whiz. Got the benefit of whizzes. Right inside since will at stuff and said that's a really good approach. I mean do that then. I'm not gonna miss that at all. And so i taught myself the mawson at Implement strategy that fear of favor as to whether won't goes up to that where it's already gone with the better man to oscar belt so i would say i would break the breaking into two pieces. How will that stuff affect the business of quant. I think have dramatic effects insensate. You gotta pretend like you're doing something if you wanna get paid extra fees so i think people will do. A lot of this. Activity adds complexity. Add whatever as part of a sales pitch but that's the whole game of like. How do i get like some sort of information advantage before joe blow's supercomputer versus suzy's supercomputer. I don't know if that's really a great long-term game to win. But i know it's a great game for people to sell and people can do that. I know a lot about it. I don't know a lot about it. But i deal with a lot of people and we hire a lot of people that on lease open to letting them explore their crazy ideas to try to beat the brain dead versions of these models. But no one's convinced me that the actually at any real value beyond just marketing south. And i'm much more in the camp of toby where indian like fundamentals matter. It's humans buying and selling the marketplace. The only edge you really have is just being less human unless crazy and to the extent you can rely on systems to minimize that behavioral baggage. I think that's evergreen. So i think all this stuff matters for that component. It's foggier system entire self to the mass. And you'll probably be okay if you don't you'll probably screw things out. And if you buy sales pitch about how the the random forest triple ever zimbabwe's swap machine learning algorithm is gonna add value to your portfolio. Yeah you're probably going to get the fund manager rich. But i can work out too well for you. That's my basic. Take all the craziness in complexity out there. I think one of the big risks for guys for fund managers and people investing with fund manages funders. Get behind a little bit. Studt changing what they're doing so they they drink a little bit and it's very tempting miss market in particular if you're valued guy to drift into more growthy kind of stop because that's been what has been working for about the last five years probably ended spain. Accelerating it's been getting the distance between the tishman getting wider and wider. so at some stage. You just sort of contact your pint anymore and you want to jump into something that just to take the pain away for a month. I would one hundred percent do that. I just know that the moment that i personally do that the whole game is over and it will reverse causing get back to where i should have been in the first place so just keep that in my mind that the only thing you can do said outperform his to do those things that deviate from performance. You have to sort of stand apart from the crowd outperformance That and you just want to get the mockery ten than just go and buy the milk and just don't worry about it but i flatter myself that if we if i stick closely enough to a good strategy and will eventually turn around and outperform. There's.

fifteen last year twenty years five times five year twenty times ten times two guys thirty five times one year over twenty five one hundred times five sixty six times Jake one hundred percent first hundred times two pieces eighteen seventy
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

08:17 min | Last month

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Look at vanguard for instance and you see how they do their global stock market. There is a disconnect between gdp and the location so the baseline is like. Hey let's allocate like an index her in buying in the market cap weights right. So that's like roughly. Let's say fifty percent. Us forty percent ten percent. Em plus or minus. Whatever i think that's a fine place to start is a baseline it really cheap really efficient and you can deal with the things. I've mentioned up front that you can control fees and taxes because you can go by v. T. or something like that if you wanna get fancy and you want to do it in an evidence base way. There's probably arguments that you can use components evaluation momentum so if let's say a certain country like em making us up let's say the p. on em ten and the p. on us stocks is five hundred. You know i'm not going to shame someone who's targeting higher spectral returns if they tilt more towards. Em to the extent they can handle the potential swing in the short run. Nor would i fought someone who also looked at relative strength so some that just kinda shifted based on momentum. So you know. Em is is outperforming the us stocks over the past year. They will take a bit more towards the momentum. Great i think those are two tactical ideas were tin extent. You can manage again the taxes and fees of engaging in an activity make a lot of sense otherwise you should just probably do the market cap. Roughly diversification thing and any provocation. It'd be all in on the us. Frankly even i know buffet talks about that. This seems like bad risk management. Yeah and i just want to say for the listeners out there if you're like this cool west dude. He came up with all his death. Em thing correct me. If i'm wrong west here so that would be developed markets. Yeah like europe. Japan and then would be like all the people on the fringes arguably philippines thailand. Brazil like kind of up and commerce would be generically called emerging markets. I guess so toby now. Everyone's looking you. So what's the case for being one hundred percent named petits right now. That's a personal question. I think for a lot of people depending on where they are in this cycle. I m personally young enough. That i think that it's okay for me to be fully exposed to equities and particularly with the implemented adult long showed in amid kept lodge universe and long in late in a smoke can universe the two things that i manage about. Us focused so at the moment. All i think about is the us when i look at the us. I'm sort of reject really really hot. It's been kind of baffling to me as a value guy for very extended period of time that the market sensitivity extremely expensive that stokes soda Richard long run made now that they're not anywhere near the Breakdown you take the french data site ken. French is part of the family. French had came up with all. The fact is that was was discussing. Many of the factors that whispers discuss discuss full that can french publishers state or in his website. And you can pull it down and take a look at yourself but basically type breakdown by cash for advice because you're not allowed to talk about anymore because it's such a fact of it. Let's talk about cash flow. Because that's acceptable. He breaks down into all of these different. He breaks down the defeats into tents at ten buckets. Most expensive bucket is as expensive as Exceeding account remember exactly. But i think it might have exceeded two thousand now on that basis and the cheap stuff is it's expensive relative to its long run main bits no winnie as valued as the as the really expensive stuff. The problem is that that's being truth for an extended period of time. It's just the difference between the two has just kept on the widening. That's unusual and could be some problems with the way that we're counting for this stuff could be a change in the underlying business. You know the nature businesses that was sort of will take focused now rather more heavy industry or it might just be plain old kind of speculation in the market and the base. Things happen every now and again that it will get too excited about new technologies in pay too much for the success of the money away from the other hots of the market and in at some point. There's a reckoning stuff you look at a cyclically-adjusted pedes. It's a very unpopular at the moment because it tells everybody that the market's really expensive hasn't been deteriorate predictive for an extended period of time and it's not sort of show periods of time but only can cite looking at the cape at the moment. Is that the fold Pretty low and when you get that kind of live fold returns telephone accompanied by a lot of volatility. Say kind of getting the worst of both worlds terrible returns and likely of the likelihood of a big draw down increases through that period of time site testing like a head on got showed son in the market. That show junkie at valued stuff that has broken down momentum. And i'll just try to get long cheap strong stuff that generates such a cash throat bust So it's like a down. Like i get a better opportunity to buy most look. It's great if they stayed shape. They just keep them buying most of the intrinsic value. Kits concentrated any hope that if they get through a big boston stuff. That's most sensitive that much more expensive. Most speculative heavily even stuff that gets dinged up more that sort of protects the portfolio through something like that so i'm one hundred percent exposed to the us market. But i do it in that way. For basically long small micro which is the market rapes. Small and micro does pretty well and micro valley said of keeps up with it at the moment but i think the long small and micro valuable that performance and then if it gets really big upton along showed should provide less draw downunder than the broader market. Let's take a quick break and hear from today sponsor so you guys already know about express. Vpn how could you not. I talk about them all the time on the show. I can't stress enough the importance of protecting your online activity from big tech who tracks by and profit off of you. But there's actually another reason. Many of my listeners love using express vpn net flicks see thousands of shows on. Netflix are only available outside of the us. So you need to change your country if you want access them with the express. Vpn app does. Is it encryption. Data and re routes it to a server location of your choice this not only protect your data but it also lets you control which country you want net to think you're in express. 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fifty percent Jay tobin today five hundred Netflix forty percent two thousand Richard Brazil europe netflix Japan one thousand dollars two philippines ten percent vanguard one hundred percent boston both worlds
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

07:16 min | Last month

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"So i do want to say for the record. Though to think it was toby's pine about how much the trader. If was jake. I would say that if you do that someone who was really interesting to follow would be someone like popeye. He doesn't trae lot sometimes. It could even go. Yes in between and he has a huge international portfolio and not a lot of us stocks and like he used to say. There's a thousand reasons why people sell stock but there's typically just one reason why the bias talk and i think that's definitely people for him but i can easily see why might not be applicable for for everyone else and we shouldn't fall into that trap. I remember i was speaking to bill miller about this and you know well prepared us was i was going into aroma and talking about different picks and and one of the first thing he said was just like hey dude. That's how you're supposed to look at it. We have different funds with different aims. And this just all summation of all of them together and we have different strategies for that to drills the sense if you look at what i do and out say. That's correct for bill milliken. Wouldn't necessarily say it's the same thing if you're looking at monisha or guy from that matter. I have a very different approach where it makes a lot more sons and see not only what bought but you can also reverse engineer and see what's priced at the buy something at which could also give some help in terms of of conviction so another guy. I would like to talk about here. Is is read w and this is a quote from rebellious that we talked quite a lot about on the show. I think that even mentioned doing the last mastermind crew meeting we had here with toby was and it's a call from rebellious. He said that in these conditions you have to diversify into many different asset classes currencies and countries for mock conditions. Like these and so one of the things i wanted to talk about specifically here is equities. That is what we know. Most all listeners really interested in that is equities and many of them are not looking at individual stock picks allow them are thinking in the bid more traditional portfolio sense how many percents of my portfolio should hold in stocks giving the market conditions so lipa try and ask you guys that same question so what you do personally and perhaps more importantly starting to how do you think about this question of ima conditions like these how big a percentage of equity should hold. Personally it's easier for me to answer this question. Because i put my exact money and percentages into the same thing that i do with my clients so this is what we execute as well for the firm. I have a little bit more discretion than western. Toby obviously sometimes. I'm jealous of their sort of tying themselves to the mass. I think it's very smart. Actually because i can just go round and round in circles in my head especially where we are right now and i'm sure every time period feels like it's the hardest time period to be an investor but right now there are such large tides in the marketplace and in the world. Really that it's a really difficult time to figure out asset allocation. Maybe this is just my own shortfalls and having too much discretion. But you know. When i think about the world i feel like have gotten quite a bit fatter than they were at previous times. What i mean by that is the very extreme outcomes that we might expect in a given year or five years. So for instance on one side. I can make a pretty convincing argument. That markets are too expensive that we have too much debt and that we should expect a lot of maybe debt deflation we could have tremendous amount of bankruptcies potentially there's so many companies right the other thing too is you have technology. That's pulling down the prices of things in a in a pretty extreme way as technology is accelerating you look at the price of a tv from like nineteen ninety-seven to today. It's ninety five percent less than it was. There's a saying that everything in the long run is a toaster argument that everything in the long run is a tv and that technology wants to do more with less and if that's the case then that's incredibly deflationary in which case i think you wanna actually own quite a bit of cash and so that you have money to put to work if the market was to correct really hard. You want the optionality on that deflation okay. So that's on one side. On the other side we have tremendous amount of stimulus money. Printing government intervention perhaps indexation that kinda never. Lets market correct. That's one theory in that instance Meal maybe rates are lower forever. Who knows you really need to own businesses at that point especially if we see a tremendous amount of inflation right. Your cash is going to be a terrible thing when it comes to that part the equities owning businesses for me. I have to two-pronged approach from that. I'm looking to buy things that are unloved. Cheap kind of misunderstood assets or industries and then on the other side by companies that. I i know the team who's running it to the point. Where like i think it's a very anti fragile bet on their cap allocation. So if things go really wrong. I know they're going to be making a bunch of smart moves on my behalf as an owner. That's tom trying to protect my downside. So we have this incredible rainbow of how the future might unfold. And i'm just trying to be the lease wrong across that whole rainbow. It's really hard to do right now. Because the the tales are so fat. You're doing things that look very contradictory. That's a really long winded. Answer to how. I'm thinking about it right now and like i said i'm a little jealous of these. Two other guys who. Maybe don't have to think about that much stuff as much and just execute the strategy. That is very smart with. They're doing and they get to. Maybe sleep a little easier. I know you guys can tell me if that's true. Or but i spend a lotta time going around and round in my head on walks about god. What the heck are we going to get in the next five years. I agree with jake. The level of brain damage. Potential here is infinite. Sal you generally don't walk around the world with a lot of brain damage. So i try to avoid that. I just focus on things you can control. Taxes fees diversification in you know. I'm gonna channel chelsom energetic. Bogle here. But i think that equities globally diversified and if he can handle the tracking error buying the cheaper ones and buying the stronger. Ones is generally a pretty good evergreen. Bet if you've got long ten twenty year horizon and the only reason you would ever add in things that pay you nothing like bonds and if they do pay you. They pay an income which is taxed inefficiency. Give half oh back to the government is if you have an extreme risk aversion problem and or you have liquidity risk like you might need capital at a certain point and there's no other way to get around it so for me personally. I'm all in all the time. Goebel equities in fancy things like toby does to like we'll trend follow the beta risk. A little but in general. I think it's fine to just have a huge amount of equity risk if you've got the capacity to hold it for ten twenty years and you can either cut your costs as individual or you can work harder to make more money but you know burning your capital on things that pay zero anything they do pay us gotta go to a fund manager the government. That just seems like a bad idea to me. I like stocks west. Could you talk a bit more about global agencies. And one thing i wanted to talk about is when you.

ninety five percent ten twenty years today five years bill miller bill milliken one reason ten twenty year one theory jake Bogle zero one nineteen ninety-seven next five years two-pronged approach one side first thing Two other guys thousand reasons
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

08:20 min | Last month

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Was that you shouldn't buy the biggest holding. Because that's that's the one that's run up the most. I think we've done our own research on this because we've always had big family offices. Ask about doing this strategy in to your point. Toby the irony is you don't wanna actually conviction way in accordance with how the actual managers weighed him. You generally want to own like they're smaller tiny positions that are that's the most mo jo. It's not usually their biggest position. Typically because like tracking error concerns or capital allocation concerns or other things that are actually unrelated to how much actual conviction immoral related arguably with the incentives of asset management business. How do you find the ahead. Somebody said that recently ended. They look for the we'd holding in the portfolio. That doesn't make sense in that there was some analysts. He's pushed really hard to get the cinnamon of a little bit of it in. Yeah i think. That's one approach another challenge obviously to jake's point and this is one that no one's convinced me of is. How do you pick your baseball players. Who's on the team either. It's one thing to go pick their stocks. But it's important to figure out who the hell is going to be. your baseball. players can hit home runs or not this going to be familiar enough with the philosophy that you like. It's easy to clean buffet. Because we all kind of his philosphy pretty well known as a whole lot of buffet type dudes at the he wanted to be reasonably comfortable. Probably take us. He could if you get comfortable with it. I can't get comes with that process but if you're that kind of invested than you can probably figure it out so now that you bring up buffet. Let's say that he would be all better so he bought a position for him. I know if you wanted to find this a big position. He put in eight point. Six billion berezin thing you put around three billion chevron do gossiping you thoughts on those two picks berkshires thirteen f. You have to be a little bit more careful with now that the has lieutenants who are managing bigger sums of money. So you don't really necessarily know if it's buffet. Then you have to understand their process. They don't really talk much. They're pretty quiet so it's not quite as clear that that was buffet anymore. That's just something to keep an eye on this. Take a quick break and hear from today. Sponsor wished you were in early on some of the best performing. Ipo's of twenty nine. Nineteen and twenty twenty our crowd investors were and now you can join them in. What's next with our crowd. Accredited investors have access to invest directly easily and most importantly early our crowds investment professionals leverage their extensive network to review some of the most promising private companies and startups in the world. 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To leah goldstein is one such bumper nor besides being a mother of two her personalized matchmaking company. Three day rule is constantly growing and she needs to hire several matchmakers a month. So she uses ziprecruiter ziprecruiter's powerful technology helps her find people with the right experience and actively invites them to apply but to is not the only employer who loves ziprecruiter four out of five employers. Who post on ziprecruiter get a qualified candidate within the first day. And right now you can try ziprecruiter for free. At this web address ziprecruiter dot com slash investors. This special offer is only good at ziprecruiter dot com slash i n. v. e. s. t. o. r. s. ziprecruiter. The smartest way to hire all right back to the show amazon did at one stage which is sort of. It was optically expensive either located at the time they put it on. I couldn't kind of figure it out and then a year ago. Maybe they put the position on barrick gold and i know from running a blog that if you put buffet and gold in the headline of apus it's gonna get the non and i think every other news outlet in the states. Nice that swallowing. The world knows that and so that was like a headline for a long time. It was his tiny little position. And then it got sold out in a light in the latest And i didn't hear anybody say anything about that at all. It was like it didn't happen. Didn't exist what about snowflake to very kind of out of character for what you would expect from berkshire west. You're talking about it before that you dig into some of the data on those filings. Could you talk a bit more about that. We'll there's always outperformance because generally to toby's point when people pick the baseball players they focus on people that or well after the fact so obviously if you clone holdings of people that you choose as your baseball players usually choose baseball players that have hit home runs not necessarily those that strike out all the time so obviously the back tests are incredible is a danger in the first place but then so then the question is okay great. We know they all work. But how do we extract the most quote unquote alpha or kind of ride. The coat tail value from you're looking at these thirteen positions. And i think the broad idea is do not wear them in accordance to how they weigh him in if anything if you're gonna do it equal weight the things again. I'm like i'm like toby. At this point. I gave up stock. Picking so i always think through quant lens i would just go grab the baseball players and just take on like the best and equal weight. All their positions not accordance with their conviction were jake might have little better qualitative insights and he may do a different approach. But i i just thought about that through the lens of if we're going to try to clone these people to extract the most benefit efficiently without thinking too hard. That's basically the conclusion of all the work we did. You can also use the services that shut when somebody's buying selling and if it's someone who tends to hold for very long period of time and it probably doesn't matter assure quarter or so behind when it buying something. Yes when you get the guys who had trading all the time in and out it's a snapshot of chaos every quarter and you don't know what's happened in the days of weeks since oh before it's kind of useless hundred cleanliness And taking of the entire portfolio. Not what they actually try. The other thing we did was we talked about it in our book. Token is book back in a day than we formerly looked at it. You can also look at these names and thirteen apps and map them back to like their fundamental factor. Characteristics in. The question is like okay. Well if they have thirteen f conviction and they happen to look good on whatever you like you know value quality whatever the heck it is. That's certainly an additive manufacturing at margin bike. You wouldn't want to do a thirteen f name but then also identified that has low momentum. It's a total piece of junk and it's like the most expensive stock in the world. That's probably not a great idea but using thirteen. F is a potential marginal contributor to like a factor for polio. I wanted to tell someone adds a bad idea. That seems reasonable to me. One other point. That i think is is important is i will often kind of biased towards managers. Who i know have an activist bent because then there are other levers to be going on at the corporate level that can make a difference in. It's not necessarily just a sort of passive holding. Yeah going into this about asking that question. I'm really happy you.

leah goldstein nike amazon oracle today thirteen apps Six billion intel thirteen positions Ceo a year ago four trillion dollar berkshire microsoft Three day first day three jake eight point thirteen
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

08:18 min | Last month

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Carlisle worse gray. And jake taylor to talk about. We see in the financial markets right now. Today we're discussing. how why catherwood. And it's a move in the stock market. We're talking about why it's too simplistic to say. The low interest rates are good for stocks. And we also looking at whether or not. The sheila p is valid measure of the stock market. We'll talk about that and much more. You definitely don't want to miss out on this one. You're listening to the investors podcast while we study the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaire. The most we keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected burst. Welcome to the investors. Podcast i'm your host. And what lineup we have here today. Toby kyle west gray. And jake taylor a joining me for investing mosman group here in q. One it's always great to speak with you and even better to speak to all you have the same time so welcome to the show. Gin's thanks for having us guys. Thanks so i'm sure the audience really going to enjoy this station. And what you guys see in the financial markets right now. Toby whereas and i wrote a book of fairy long time ago now. It's almost a decade since it came out and that's pretty good explanation of sort of the underlying process which is like the screen basically and then under a few things on top of that. I think the most interesting thing in the market at the moment is kathy would and ach. Etf's you might remember. In the early dot com days those funchal janus and the head break performances go great flows like a of flaws as a result and they were focused on smaller quid. Take names said janus had these gripe flows into these very illiquid stocks and they degrade performance as a result and it was probably van driving up. The performance of those stocks has been a similar argument made about ach that they tend to focus on smaller. Non-profitable take stokes and Sorta gigantically big of the last few years. It's now sort of a third or fourth biggest. Ats show out there that flows now that go into these small illiquid tech stocks of they control prices of these textbooks. Had this little wobble of the last few days colson redemptions for them which may cause them to do some selling as well they also have been exposure tasteless I just think that that's the driver of the market at the moment is potentially getting some redemptions having to sell out of some of those stocks which will push an the names and a very sort of beholden to what tesla Much big stuff. But it's still quite volatile. Hasn't made a great deal of money and so there's some risks that creates Cascade selling an odd gets coordinated. And then i didn't know what that does to the rest of the market. That seems to me that there's a lot of money in tessler knocked is fairly new money. Little be sensitive to what happens odyssey on his it relates our business little bit. We have a momentum fund. The traffic's at a lot of the names that arc funds as complex trades in. I've definitely noticed correlation in day to day up and down all around with respect to art funds. Which has actually been really cool last couple months but the last couple of days as been pretty painful. I don't know if it's actually true. But it certainly seems to be the case that art fund flows are driving demand and supply shocks in these kind of tech firms. I don't know how big of a issued is a broader marketplace though but certainly case in that narrow sector of the marketplace somebody joked at aachen sprung a lake of the last days it's flows it just amazing it's been. It was a lot of money in that redeploys because they active funds that redeployed immediately into the market as they see fit and this being this weird little wall of less dies with some of the. The frothy take names of pullback has tesla and said kesse shifted its portfolio. Mix a little bit from taking it away from some of those moya liquid names and it's moved a little bit more into tesla which might make it a little bit more liquid that they holdings in some of these companies are kind of. It's extraordinary hab much of the company that sort of in the twenty percent plus range in some of these companies. How's this going to play out like when you own that much of a company. And i don't know if you're that familiar with arc. What's the plan. How can they ever get out especially for some of the smaller names. I guess where there's just not enough liquidity. it's perfectly legitimate. Strategy and valley goes to this. Oh i'm not criticizing much but it's a perfectly legitimate strategy to buy something when it's very liquid and planned selling when it becomes more liquid much less liquid which is what tends to happen selwyn. Stocks it down low because they they wanna get out they sell typically because they have to get at somebody's sort of you know the redemption so that need the money somewhere also leave at margin line or something like that because they know that run the valued so he said it's no liquidity when you trying to buy some of these up nine not that big not a head. I'm just saying as a value got. You're always trying to buy And then you sort of hoping that down the road year. Oh two or three or five. Whatever at some point. The thing that you're buying so it comes back into fashion. People wanna pi pay high multiple and typically. That's when you see a little liquidity and you can probably ask about the research city liquidity as a factor. I think that that's the idea. Is that the list liquid. Is this typically bitter attentional list liquid stocks and more liquids wanna be buying illiquid and selling liquid has fun that does in thinkers firm called zebra technologies Started by some group. Academics that specifically targets factor and gotta make sense should earn extra for you know buying things that are paying the but to get in and out. But that doesn't solve the problem. I if you kind of forced an audit nah what they do in that scenario. I think it's going to be tough to get on all right guy so nothing wanted to talk about is whether or not you accused the thirteen filings in your investment approach and for sitting out there not completely sure what. A fighting is quarter. Report filed to the sec. If you control more than one hundred million dollars in assets it's something that institutional investment men just have to do jake stop. Would you for thirteen fs. I use it as a screening tool. It's a place to look for ideas. The vast majority of the time. When i kick the tires on something that i look at it doesn't make any sense to me. And that's okay. You don't have to understand everything but every once in a while. They'll be an idea that i'll find that is worth digging into more and those makeup for all the other times where it's a fool's errand one of the biggest problems that i see in that when people are kind of thirteen. F cloners if you will. It's really easy to clone the portfolio. But it's really hard to clone the conviction and the conviction doesn come until you've actually done some of the work yourself you know if you wanted to sort of quantify are use a quantum approach to it in thirteen f. Like i think has written about this. A fair amount met favor. You can do that. And i think that probably works over a long period of time but the periods of time where it doesn't work better really hard to get through because you just don't have the conviction to to hold in there. The other thing i would say is that you have to be really careful about who you choose to follow in the thirteen space. Because some people turn over their portfolios in such a way that that information by the time it comes out might be really stale. It might not look like their portfolio at all. So there are you can figure out who the ones are who are the long-term holders and those tend to be better places to look that's been my experience with a portfolio either because you can't see international holdings and you can't see shorts that they have on which you might be looking at half of arbitrage or something like that and you can't see any option positions that they have onset you getting one picture of the portfolio. The other rico. That's one thing. I learned this from may.

jake taylor kathy would twenty percent thirteen Today Toby kyle west thirteen filings five today third more than one hundred million fourth zebra technologies one picture three sheila p janus Toby thirteen space two
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

02:15 min | Last month

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Kyle west gray. And jake taylor a joining me for investing mosman group here in q. One it's always great to speak with you and even better to speak to all you have the same time so welcome to the show. Gin's thanks for having us guys. Thanks so i'm sure the audience really going to enjoy this station. And what you guys see in the financial markets right now. Toby whereas and i wrote a book of fairy long time ago now. It's almost a decade since it came out and that's pretty good explanation of sort of the underlying process which is like the screen basically and then under a few things on top of that. I think the most interesting thing in the market at the moment is kathy would and ach. Etf's you might remember. In the early dot com days those funchal janus and the head break performances go great flows like a of flaws as a result and they were focused on smaller quid. Take names said janus had these gripe flows into these very illiquid stocks and they degrade performance as a result and it was probably van driving up. The performance of those stocks has been a similar argument made about ach that they tend to focus on smaller. Non-profitable take stokes and Sorta gigantically big of the last few years. It's now sort of a third or fourth biggest. Ats show out there that flows now that go into these small illiquid tech stocks of they control prices of these textbooks. Had this little wobble of the last few days colson redemptions for them which may cause them to do some selling as well they also have been exposure tasteless I just think that that's the driver of the market at the moment is potentially getting some redemptions having to sell out of some of those stocks which will push an the names and a very sort of beholden to what tesla Much big stuff. But it's still quite volatile. Hasn't made a great deal of money and so there's some risks that creates Cascade selling an odd gets coordinated. And then i didn't know what that does to the rest of the market. That seems to me that there's a lot of money in tessler knocked is fairly new money. Little be sensitive to what happens

Steve obama fifty cents Microsoft europe fifty cent fifty percent charlie munger twitter twenty years five years twelve years microsoft seventeen years Chris china congress three Two thousand amazon nine point
What's happening in the markets right now?

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

02:15 min | Last month

What's happening in the markets right now?

"Kyle west gray. And jake taylor a joining me for investing mosman group here in q. One it's always great to speak with you and even better to speak to all you have the same time so welcome to the show. Gin's thanks for having us guys. Thanks so i'm sure the audience really going to enjoy this station. And what you guys see in the financial markets right now. Toby whereas and i wrote a book of fairy long time ago now. It's almost a decade since it came out and that's pretty good explanation of sort of the underlying process which is like the screen basically and then under a few things on top of that. I think the most interesting thing in the market at the moment is kathy would and ach. Etf's you might remember. In the early dot com days those funchal janus and the head break performances go great flows like a of flaws as a result and they were focused on smaller quid. Take names said janus had these gripe flows into these very illiquid stocks and they degrade performance as a result and it was probably van driving up. The performance of those stocks has been a similar argument made about ach that they tend to focus on smaller. Non-profitable take stokes and Sorta gigantically big of the last few years. It's now sort of a third or fourth biggest. Ats show out there that flows now that go into these small illiquid tech stocks of they control prices of these textbooks. Had this little wobble of the last few days colson redemptions for them which may cause them to do some selling as well they also have been exposure tasteless I just think that that's the driver of the market at the moment is potentially getting some redemptions having to sell out of some of those stocks which will push an the names and a very sort of beholden to what tesla Much big stuff. But it's still quite volatile. Hasn't made a great deal of money and so there's some risks that creates Cascade selling an odd gets coordinated. And then i didn't know what that does to the rest of the market. That seems to me that there's a lot of money in tessler knocked is fairly new money. Little be sensitive to what happens

Kyle West Gray Jake Taylor Mosman Group GIN Toby Janus Kathy Stokes Tesla Cascade Tessler
"toby carlisle" Discussed on Animal Spirits Podcast

Animal Spirits Podcast

03:50 min | 1 year ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on Animal Spirits Podcast

"And he's got a great australian accident which isn't which is nice clear now we have three options on the show we have long island mid west in an australian i think he he kind of went so here's our interview with toby i'm sitting here with toby carlisle from what you're titled requires fund is it everything yeah everything portfolio manager for the purpose of this and so i am really excited about this finally some innovation in e t f space so this is their portfolio a hundred thirty percent long thirty percent short end of before according i don't know why i just assumed someone told me i assumed that the hunter percent long was snp with thirty percent of of his favorite stocks overlaid or not is fave i should say what the screen determined to be the best stocks and thirty percent short but it's actually that's not the case so one of you explain what this fund this deep value fund it's a hundred and fifty percent long undervalued devalue names withstood the uss andy short city names also then you s so i look for on the long side it's very traditional kind of deep value portfolio looking for undervalued on my favorite metric which is de acquires multiple which is the metric that you wrote a book about that did it you did by the same name federal enough it's see the metric that activists and private equity funds used is to try to find undervalued stocks because it's a little bit agnostic to the capital structure looks at operating income on one side say a company could be not profitable at the bottom line but still be generating lots of operating income that could be direct the paying down debt or buying back stock and so then that's where we go and look at what they do with the cash was set of the buyback do they pay down debt buybacks stalk make sure the matching cashflows make sure it's trending towards the net cash balance sheet on the long sought to they're pretty solid businesses throwing off cash buying back stock will paying back that and that's that's that's what i walk alongside toby we've always had this discussion about where did be sixty forty portfolio come from a no one really knows the answer so why is it that funds like this gopher the one thirty thirty is there a reason for that next like why do you settle on that as the knicks were going that the net and gross exposure well tested a variety of different exposure so as you increase they won fifty one fifty becomes you're exposure on the short side is about a third of your portfolio of gross portfolio fifty on one fifty you know their funds green blat joe greene runs similar funds he's exposure is one nineteen ninety and they're they're a number of funds around like that which of course at the sort of half the year about how short but one said he said he's about a quarter of the portfolio gross is short and so the reason for doing that it provides enough downside protection when the market moves down without sort of compromise in too much when the market moves up until you're you're a hundred percent exposed when the market goes up but it's it's sort of at the at the more conservative in i think it's the most conservative way of constructing a portfolio like this on i don't love having imagined it in there but i think that if you're gonna do it this is the way to do it and it and it does seem to in in the testing that i have done it in the law will fall is that i have ron it seems to be the best way to structure the portfolio so value as everyone listening palino's is getting crushed relatives growth what about value yeah devalue so the more gross that you have in your portfolio the better you have done so the more traditional buffet stock portfolio which is a different method to the way that i liked run the voice so the differences buffet his famous just saying he looks wonderful companies at fair prices and what he means by that is he likes companies with a sustainable harvard senate invested capital and are perfect companies he says he prefers most effect companies he's a wonderful process which is where i find myself.

thirty percent hundred thirty percent hundred percent fifty percent
"toby carlisle" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

03:51 min | 2 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"Our guest is the founder of the acquire funds serves PM, the deep value strategy. His also got a deep voice, and he's the author of the websites acquires multiple in greenbacks and several books, including deep value. Why activists investors and other contrarians battle for control losing corporations. Welcome back to the show. Toby Carlisle, thanks for the great introduction those awesome. Yeah. Tobe. What's up man? You're hearing LA and congratulations. You've got some news. You just launched a public fund. What were you thinking I dunno following your late? I always say made fiber seven years in the future. So I'm roughly seven years behind you. Well, I don't know what attracted to you about this idea of. It's almost like slowly drowning or getting waterboarded. But welcome to the party. Glad to see. You chose ETF talk to us. What's going on by the time this podcast, drops it's already going to be out is the ticker symbol. T O, B Y ticket symbol is zig, Zia G, as in zig when the markets ex and the fund is called the acquires fund, which is a play on my acquirers. Multiple so the idea is basically, it's a deep valley fund. But the wrinkle in this one is it's long short and its US equities, it's one thirty thirty so too long biased fund, but I wanted to put the show tonight, because I think that the show it's add something very interesting to the fund. I think that's a little bit of alpha in up markets, particularly in down markets really stents, so the long side because that's the stuff that I focused on most and written about most in date value and, and quantitative value, which is a book that I wrote with a friend was gray. Back in two thousand twelve the idea was that quantitative value. And particularly went through, we found every bit of academic Industry Research that we could find on fundamental value investment strategies stuff that was decades, all to update it and see if it still worked, and some of it had stopped working some of it probably never did, what? Because it was died of mind at the time it came out, and we built, a model that ended up being cue which was was strategy, and I was sort of interested, as we're going through that process that there are a lot of counter intuitive, things that could and bicycle when you're in the value will sometimes worse on I fundamental level means better stock price performance. And I think the reasons that people just give up on these companies. So we're looking for things that are depressed at a business level. So the businesses having some sort of problem because the industry's no good. I think there's some competitor. Some new entrant that might be dot com style competitive. It's gonna put them out of business permanently and we try to buy them when it looks assed, and then we hope that we get a little bit of Maine revision the business improves, and we get a little bit of better performance from the discount to the intrinsic valley, and so as both of those closed that's how generate returns on the long side, and I use as my screening methodology this thing called the acquires multiple. So when we tested all these different price Russia's the one that we found that work the best was enterprise value on EIB, and that's what I call the acquires, multiple bicycling. It's a metric that similar to the one that private equity guys use an act of shoes, defined undervalued tug. It's, it's a metric sort of Luke's through to find cash on the balance sheet, and operating income that the company might not be profitable at the very bottom line, but it could still be generating. Good counting. We make sure that's matched with cash. We do a full valuation off to that holistic value. That looks at bounce shade looks at the financial strength. So on looks at the cash flow books at the income to make sure that, that's all they make sure that buying stock..

founder academic Industry Research LA Toby Carlisle US PM zig Zia G Russia Maine EIB Luke seven years
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

03:26 min | 2 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Sin. My name is Preston pysche and were accompanied by our good friends. Toby Carlisle and Hari Ramchandra guys. Welcome back to the show. Great to have you here. I know I always really look forward to these mastermind discussion. So we're thrilled to have you back script to be here. Thank you. We all sent out our picks for this quarters mastermind discussion. Do we have any volunteers to go? I I know we always the beat over who's gonna go first, but anyone who's really excited to talk about their pick. I'm definitely not excited about mon-. But I'll take a swing at it. Because you guys a warm up and get nastier as we go along. So while while everybody's sort of still little bit nervous about the start of the co let me let me do Mon Mon HP Q HP the printing business of the oh combined entity before it spun out. So I bought this post spin in two thousand sixteen something like that. And it was trading for about eleven bucks. And that's. Twenty two dollars. So it's up a lot. And I haven't seen it for years for a couple of years, and it sort of flooded back into my screen. So I think it's kind of it's interesting thirty all billion dollar market cap price settings currently about six point eight which is shaped IHOP q-. It's been hired. It's been low the reason that it's a little bit cheaper this and compression and their EPS. So it's likely that had freed twenty-five next year. It's going to be low than that throwing plenty of free cash flow paying a dividend buying back stock just one of the reasons that I like this business, I think that the have a good attitude toward shareholders. So they do buy back stock that do pay dividends. And I think that you're gonna get a lot of the return out of this stock from shell the friendly maneuvers like that twelve percent of the return of the lesser uses come from those returns of capital, whether it be dividend ship back, and I think that will continue on because it seems to be throwing cash, and it seems to be doing pretty well frost settings at six point eight say is below the five year ever. Wjr. And at a pretty substantial discount to every stock in the index, and it certainly below where it was lost year in the before. So head some compression in the stock price as well. You know, many of their concerns about it. Pretty simple estate one of them is that it's carrying more debt than I would ordinarily hitch to you guys. So the balance sheet is a little bit weak. Then I typically like to see, and there's also there's just bowling that balance sheet, the book valley doesn't tell you quite how bad it is. Because some of that book value was goodwill. And so it looks like it's about a six hundred million dollar negative book value sort of six point six billion dollars of that includes some amid the six point six billion dollars that includes goodwill and other things that I wouldn't really count on the positive side of do think that it's pretty steady is this the risks just general sort of macro risks at something really nasty happens in the economy. But I think he's been around for a long time. They making princes hardware stuff that nobody really wants to be in any more. But I think that this is kind of a muddle. For a business. It'll just keep muddling through and you'll get I don't have great hopes for the returns. But I think that you can sort of make eight ten percent over the next five years because I think the valuation stocks currently trading at twenty two dollars a seat valuations around thirty five dollars, even assuming a little bit of demonstration in the UK going backwards for a little bit here. I just think it's too cheap. Where it is. I think that's about a fifty percent upside muddled for business with this sort of looking off the shells with the proviso that the balance sheets a little bit wake. And if we really say some nasty macro than have to revisit it..

Preston pysche Toby Carlisle Hari Ramchandra UK six billion dollars six hundred million dollar thirty five dollars Twenty two dollars twenty two dollars eight ten percent billion dollar twelve percent fifty percent five years five year
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

03:26 min | 2 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Sin. My name is Preston pysche and were accompanied by our good friends. Toby Carlisle and Hari Ramchandra guys. Welcome back to the show. Great to have you here. I know I always really look forward to these mastermind discussion. So we're thrilled to have you back script to be here. Thank you. We all sent out our picks for this quarters mastermind discussion. Do we have any volunteers to go? I I know we always the beat over who's gonna go first, but anyone who's really excited to talk about their pick. I'm definitely not excited about mon-. But I'll take a swing at it. Because you guys a warm up and get nastier as we go along. So while while everybody's sort of still little bit nervous about the start of the co let me let me do Mon Mon HP Q HP the printing business of the oh combined entity before it spun out. So I bought this post spin in two thousand sixteen something like that. And it was trading for about eleven bucks. And that's. Twenty two dollars. So it's up a lot. And I haven't seen it for years for a couple of years, and it sort of flooded back into my screen. So I think it's kind of it's interesting thirty all billion dollar market cap price settings currently about six point eight which is shaped IHOP q-. It's been hired. It's been low the reason that it's a little bit cheaper this and compression and their EPS. So it's likely that had freed twenty-five next year. It's going to be low than that throwing plenty of free cash flow paying a dividend buying back stock just one of the reasons that I like this business, I think that the have a good attitude toward shareholders. So they do buy back stock that do pay dividends. And I think that you're gonna get a lot of the return out of this stock from shell the friendly maneuvers like that twelve percent of the return of the lesser uses come from those returns of capital, whether it be dividend ship back, and I think that will continue on because it seems to be throwing cash, and it seems to be doing pretty well frost settings at six point eight say is below the five year ever. Wjr. And at a pretty substantial discount to every stock in the index, and it certainly below where it was lost year in the before. So head some compression in the stock price as well. You know, many of their concerns about it. Pretty simple estate one of them is that it's carrying more debt than I would ordinarily hitch to you guys. So the balance sheet is a little bit weak. Then I typically like to see, and there's also there's just bowling that balance sheet, the book valley doesn't tell you quite how bad it is. Because some of that book value was goodwill. And so it looks like it's about a six hundred million dollar negative book value sort of six point six billion dollars of that includes some amid the six point six billion dollars that includes goodwill and other things that I wouldn't really count on the positive side of do think that it's pretty steady is this the risks just general sort of macro risks at something really nasty happens in the economy. But I think he's been around for a long time. They making princes hardware stuff that nobody really wants to be in any more. But I think that this is kind of a muddle. For a business. It'll just keep muddling through and you'll get I don't have great hopes for the returns. But I think that you can sort of make eight ten percent over the next five years because I think the valuation stocks currently trading at twenty two dollars a seat valuations around thirty five dollars, even assuming a little bit of demonstration in the UK going backwards for a little bit here. I just think it's too cheap. Where it is. I think that's about a fifty percent upside muddled for business with this sort of looking off the shells with the proviso that the balance sheets a little bit wake. And if we really say some nasty macro than have to revisit it..

Preston pysche Toby Carlisle Hari Ramchandra UK six billion dollars six hundred million dollar thirty five dollars Twenty two dollars twenty two dollars eight ten percent billion dollar twelve percent fifty percent five years five year
"toby carlisle" Discussed on Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom

Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom

04:34 min | 2 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom

"The prices above the two hundred day or fifties above the two hundred day you own it and avoid it. Otherwise, it just makes such perfect sense. The thing when I when I show people this go, it can't be that easy. It can't be that simple. I think applying. A trend was talking to someone the other day, and I was thinking, I think that's a good idea. Use your value approach. Try if you can not an expert, but it might help to put an a loss. Take a small loss heavily, have a stop stop out point where he just, you know. You're interested in keeping your capital and may have to buy it again and that's fine. And maybe time that entry to not trying to buy the very low. But let's mix the fifty day high one hundred day high or the fifty goes over the two hundred. Yeah. Yeah, you've got your analysis done. It's a value stock, but do you have to buy the low because you probably bought it five or ten times before then, and it keeps going down. So obviously, you know. No, nothing like that. It's going to be perfect timing. So I think combining some of these ideas is a pretty pretty interesting, probably a good idea. Now, I think putting together a portfolio of different markets and lots of stocks and determining how you're gonna do the money management and the kind of risk parity sizing. You can get sort of complicated to where you could sit back and say, wow, that is, is part of this is my entry exit. That's like a third of what I have to get. Right. And I'm like, yeah, that's right. The entry exit one of the good things about my experiences been. We can look at a different entries and exits and a handful or in a certain range of parameters, and they all basically make the same amount of money. So you can't really go wrong. Can't really go right. It'll make say meta money on a monthly basis, but over a twenty year period. That's nice. It's you would hope. That would be the case, but maybe not if you try to charge two and twenty, but it's a complex project process to put together the whole portfolio to choose your leverage in size the positions and stay out of trouble and not not get it mostly right. But I'm oh, I'm been a lot of podcast and I have really strong opinions on how to do it. Right. And some of the things that are not right, and then I look at my role to performance and it seems like I'm how correlated with everyone else. So. I think I guess some of these things that I can get really excited about don't matter quite as much as trade these markets go along short and go with the trend and don't talk yourself out of doing a trade because the most important thing is not missing a trade. Ten percent of the traits gonna make all the money. You've gotta take those traits to and not let losses and the drawdowns get to you because when you hit a big one. You, that's when you're gonna make all your money. That's when you start to realize that all of my filters and all of my nalysts in my intellect. None of it's going to be worth a darn if I didn't hit that trend. Now if the as don't short crude in two thousand fourteen around ninety and hold it to twenty. You know, that's a huge mistake. We had sold that crude at ninety a half a dozen times before it finally went. So we just banging her head up against the wall, continuing to do it and people are like hygiene, oh, the crude was going to twenty. I had no idea. It was one of mini shorts and I just held on and stuck to my my approach my my rules. And that's such a critical point to make because you know, in whatever discipline you use and in value investing, it's the case a lotta times where. You use like a stock screener something you'll see these. This company looks ugly things over leverage. I don't want to own that thing. Then you read a book like Toby, Carlisle's deep value and you find out that the best performing value stocks usually the ugliest ugly ugliest Bizet how do they get so undervalued because nobody wants to own up..

Toby Carlisle two hundred day one hundred day Ten percent twenty year fifty day
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

02:26 min | 3 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"You're listening to t i p alright so on today's show we bring back a popular guest dr wesley gray we i got introduced to dr gray through a member of our mastermind group toby carlisle because they co authored a book together and the name of the book is quantitative value the book is a popular read among value investors because it takes decades of data and provides clues into the best metrics to determine when companies are oversold and potentially undervalued this is commonly called back testing the interesting thing about dr gray is that he's also conducted extensive research into momentum investing as well and so based on this research both on the value investing side and on the momentum side he has taken a really interesting way to invest which is a hybrid approach to value emma mental so on today's show we're talking to dr gray about some of the interesting trends he's finding in the market today we also talk about areas where an investor can improve or challenge their current beliefs structure in finally dr gray talk about the way he accounts for systematic risk in how he might hedge a market during challenging times you're listening to the investors podcast while we study the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most we keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected let's take a quick break and hear from today sponsor one of the most difficult things to overcome when investing is to have control over your emotions that's why stig and i recommend a service called trade stops trade stops provides a service that calculates a stocks unique volatility and provides buy and sell recommendations based on the stocks momentum trade stops uses the ticks to calculate the most opportune times the buy and sell while reducing your exposure to the overall risk so here's the best part since your listener of the investors podcast you can get twenty percent off the service when you visit trade stops dot com forward slash t i p that's trade stops dot com forward slash t ip there's even a thirty day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied with the results so what do you have the lose go to trade stops dot com forward slash t i ip today all right back to the show all right so welcome back to the show wes.

toby carlisle dr gray emma dr wesley gray twenty percent thirty day
"toby carlisle" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show

02:07 min | 3 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on The Meb Faber Show

"Again that's health iq dot com forward slash and now back to the show a real quick west gray in toby carlisle have argued that enterprise value to eib it is a much better ratio then p e four latching onto the value premium so why not evaluate countries by these cyclically adjusted enterprise value to eib it ratio as opposed to cape what are you got me i think it's probably fine any evaluation indicators should line up i mean if you look at all the valuation indicators in us stocks for example they're all topped us i'll marketing market capped gdp which was buffets favour i think it's close to hitting higher than the internet bubble were already passed ditto with prices sales ditto with capes not there yet so summer higher summer lower so we use when we compare countries around the world we do this route forty five countries on the idea farm will use its four or five cape cap metrics so it's 10year metrics of earnings i think we have cashflow book in sale now dividends because some countries in brasilia to eib has worked best historically that's a fact but what you want with the value indicators you i want the average of all of them i don't want to be an ally our press the book has been horrible for twenty years now but will do better going forward i dunno so i want the kind of the middle jews because all the really matters the muslim woman as as west would say is they're doing value in the first place since you're buying the cheap and avoiding the expensive so they should also same thing so they're all right now saying serb certain countries are expensive there's a lot of other countries that are cheap and then applied in so west wrote a paper that cape works great on stocks due by the way anyway and sectors chiller at one on sexual rotation using cape back in a he has a fund the dozen it's done great is at one with uh jeff chairman bids did both he's got one that does it on its own one that they do like.

forward slash toby carlisle brasilia eib chairman twenty years 10year
"toby carlisle" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

01:40 min | 3 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Toby carlisle of the acquires multiple helped me run these numbers at the peak in march two thousand twenty nine stocks in the sp 500 traded over ten times sales today there's 28 so we're essentially equivalent today of what we sawthe peak ofcom mania invidia israeli the poster child though of of incredibly high valuation it is remarkable because w elite we can look back at son and and look how how that traded we can see the quote they're fiscal in real time and yet videos trading at a fifty percent premium to that and yet people on making that connection it it's amazing what happens when you get these mandates well there's actually a great deal of irony to an escort because facebook is another one a trades fifteen times revenues and facebook actually took over son microbes alde headquarters and the main sign on the entrance to there to where you drive into their their campus is the old son sign they just turned it around backwards and painted facebook on the front so if you've just repeat but it runs absolutely with close enough to the end of the year that we can start looking forward to two thousand eighteen i guess we are in december after also so when you when you look at that and you've seen this shift yeah the movement towards the back last year of the challenges the companies of finally starting to face what do you what do you see when you look out at the fang soaks next year it is does etf and i want to keep them afloat falungong or do you think that two thousand nineteen is going to see them finally start to struggle a little bit.

Toby carlisle real time facebook ofcom fifty percent
"toby carlisle" Discussed on Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom

Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom

02:16 min | 3 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom

"This is super investors in the art of worldly wisdom i'm jesse builder got it this episode is brought to you by the feld report each week i go through a ton of reading and research can i put it all together in a free email newsletter that goes out saturday mornings including some of the best stuff that i've read during the week my favorite chart of the week in cetera if you're interested in receiving something like this just go to the feld report dot com in right there on the homepage it says joined now click that put it in your email address you'll be also i guess for this episode's tobin carlisle toby in addition to running carbon beach asset management is the author of several books including his latest the acquirers multiple honestly i consider myself a student of the game but nobody i know his dug into value investing in the different facets of it deeper than toby has because pretty excited to get the chance to pick his brain about this stuff including the popular proclamation of the death of value and now for your listening pleasure by conversation with told me carlo inaccurate yes she she gets live and we're live toby carlisle welcome to the show thanks for thanks for being here thanks for having me jesse well i'm a huge fan of your books i've spent my professional career even longer than that studying people who i believe are great investors but i don't think i've ment anybody as dedicated as or gone to the same length that you have in studying some of these guys so i'm i'm excited to pick your brain about this stuff awesome looking forward to it were you you know i was looking through your your bio instead of you started as an attorney you didn't even agassi studied some financing in college but you started out as an attorney i was i grew up in australia that's the accent a broken little country town in the outback ustralia went to the big city to study my undergroud which was business management.

toby attorney feld toby carlisle agassi australia
"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

01:42 min | 3 years ago

"toby carlisle" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Let's take a quick break and hear from today sponsor let me ask you a question are you hiring do you know where to post your job to find the best candidates with ziprecruiter you can post your job to 100plus job sites with just one click then ziprecruiter's powerful technology efficiently matches the right people to your job better than anyone else find out today why ziprecruiter has been used by businesses of all sizes to find the most qualified job candidates with immediate results since you're listening to the mess this podcast we have a special offer for you if you go to ziprecruitercomceo as less invest us you can post that new job for free that's ziprecruitercom force thus invest us all right now make to the show all right awesome de be back with you guys we have assembled the mastermind group and i'll we got a couple of changes this week because toby carlisle's out he wasn't able to make it he had something the pop up poland's out this week so we it brought on a newcomer here that we found out about just recently will lease stig in i did his name is john huber and he is the portfolio manager refer seeber capital management and he's also has a really popular blog it has called base hit and investing i'm sure most of our audience knows about your blog john it was funny 'cause hari got on the net and he just started talking to john here whenever we all got connected and of course there's two already know each other because hari you know he works at linked in so he knows everybody's connected to everybody so all hari ramachandra from pits businesses with us and of course stig and myself were ready to do this so thanks guys for making time to come on for the mastermind discussion and we're looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

ziprecruiter toby carlisle poland portfolio manager hari john