25 Burst results for "Tim Seymour"
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"We're live with the nasdaq market site on the desk tonight tim seymour corny garcia steve grasso and gai adami we start off with an earnings alert on nvidia shares hitting all -time highs in the after hours after the chip maker posted a top and a bottom line beat the stock adding 150 billion dollars and counting to its market cap after this report that call just getting underway let's get straight to christina parts nevelis with the latest christina well market cap over birkshire hathaway and already high valuation trading at 70 times forward pe and the stock like you said is still soaring above 20 hitting an all -time high inching closer and closer to that trillion dollar market cap which is pretty substantial for a chip maker although let's talk about the revenues for q1 down year of year q1 revenues were actually up 19 quarter with what data center sales hitting a record up 18 percent sequentially led by you guessed it growing demand for generative ai and large language models data center sales encompassed that all -important h100 ai chip and then we've got to talk about gaming revenue also an important important segment was down 38 percent year of year which kept gross margins lower than last year but the segment was still up double digits sequentially the launch of new gaming graphic and then last but not least on your screen you're seeing auto sales also kept growing up 114 percent year every year so a lot of what we're seeing in this name was riding on the guidance and it did not disappoint expecting q2 revenues of 11 billion dollars with higher than expected gross margins lots of wins including its biggest revenue beat in five and a half years and the stock now is 21 and a half percent higher wow christina thank you keep us posted on this call which is underway as we speak this is the stock everybody wanted to short for fundamental reasons for technical reasons guy and here we are all -time highs yeah i'm guilty of that for sure i'm missing it's the second quarter revenue got 11 billion dollars off what the street was looking the mid the midpoint was about 7 .2 billion i think even the high on the street was 9 billion dollars so it's a pretty remarkable guide but it's still a very expensive stock even with that guide this move subsequent i mean you're paying up for invidia here and maybe you should pay up i mean maybe i just have a flat wrong in terms of valuation they'll grow into the valuation and stuff but you're still talking about a company even with this move even with this guy this 25 times revenue i don't know 55 and 55 times eps and stuff at trading at an all -time high let's see how it performs but congratulations if you've owned this stock for the run if you think that all these stocks that have moved the market so far this year have been based on ai so invidia holds 90 percent of the market share of ai so by the way let's get it out of the way there's nobody maybe you could say i i would have thought it would have been a sell so i think everyone collectively thought it was overpriced overvalued it's still not overvalued when you look at it in hindsight but when you think about what you have to do with all of that computing data you need you need memory what gets us back to micron i'd be a buyer of micron on the back of nvidia's results i know it doesn't sound right but you're going to need something unsexy like micron for something sexy like invidia so just the fact that these numbers even for for the current quarter blew away guidance that management had given so recently 50 percent increase in i mean that's insane you've never heard of that before these were cartoonish numbers and then you know you stuff like we're significantly increasing our supply to meet surging demand for the entire data center family of products we're not even talking about even the stuff that's the pixie does so it's you know their core business is strong you mentioned gaming their auto design pipeline is 14 billion in surging you know so it's just at what point and this is where the the technical guys out there will say um you know fundamentals are a function or technicals are a function of good fundamentals in other words that they they're not here to tell you what to buy they usually say tell me where to buy it but put that ultimately this really is a story where even technical guys who see this breakout say that's a function of fundamentals now stock's not cheap and there are some shorts out there that are scrambling and there's some look a lot of people it's been easy to say that this stock was expensive was and i certainly have said that many times on this show but this is one of those stories that unfortunately for fundamentals you just haven't seen them line up and and i think the demand and the opportunities out there but their core business is better than people thought and that's what's amazing here so i mean with all that said i mean are we maybe looking at a re -rating if in the case in the scenario of a re -rating of the stock where we do think things look a lot better and guidance is going up a lot maybe it's fair to say that it should trade at this multiple at this point i don't know i mean they're they're definitely a lot more than their competitors really uniquely positioned to take advantage of AI which we've seen with every company that's reported if you mention AI or you're in AI that is what it's going to benefit you right now and so i think that is a beneficiary for Nvidia they were expensive coming into this they're still expensive now so no it wasn't something that i was jumping into this is also important to know as an investor even if you're not necessarily a buyer of Nvidia we have a lot of people who are just investing the S &P 500 maybe in index funds is a very large portion that's only getting bigger and this is one of the stocks that has really led the entire S &P return this year and a lot of people are starting to get overexposed in that so just know what you own because even if you don't own this outright you probably have exposure to this so just keep that in mind and data centers where Christina led off on on the report it does have a lot to do with AI so i think we have to to your point you have to re -rate not only re -rate it you have to look under the hood and see everything has to do with AI and then figure out where where to guy's point where you grow into those earnings it's interesting i mean it's going to drag up the rest of the sector i'm sure i mean amd is probably significantly higher i'm sure even microsoft gets a boost on the back of this as well it's gonna be interesting to see if intel goes up or down i mean their data center number right now exactly i mean that just shows that intel is still well behind the eight ball here in terms of data center and everybody else is winning at least you can make a compelling case evaluation for intel although that's been a loser's argument for a while i'm interested to see what it does to broader market tomorrow obviously i'm sure nasdaq futures are going to be significantly higher the s &p under pressure today this flies into face of all the other things we'll talk about on tonight's show but for a day at least this is a pretty incredible report what does this tell us about market men market mentality we're seeing a day where you know it's day two of markets being under pressure because of these debt ceiling talks through the volatility and next finally 20 and above finally finally um going higher and yet we have whatever touches ai going higher as well tim and we've talked about the sort of ai potential bubble for me in the market is this case in point of it well again you you you're breaking out to a new high a fresh new high in a stock and so this is maybe leading the entire market to to start to make that challenge and if you think about even the the backdrop of today's uh debt ceiling negotiations which are seen as negative and and certainly a negative for the market this is another reason why big cap tech should rally and so um and then i get back to where i see record short positions in in e -minis and s &p futures i certainly see an institutional world that is under invested ac hedge funds and ctis ctas commodity trading accounts that are significantly underweight the and this is the part of this that tells me we go higher i know we debated was the debt ceiling you know get it done and that's actually a sell the news effect but i think positioning is so bearish right now i know it's hard to believe at 4200 on the s &p when we're at the top end of a range for a year but but really positioning is bearish and this is the kind of stuff that tells people hey these these these blow off tops from pre -co or from covid days we can actually increase upon them and think about large cap uh tech stocks where you you used to have disruptors be able to enter the market if rates stay where they're at now you can't get a
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"A live report from Washington is straight ahead. Plus, Disney on deck, the media giant reporting earnings tomorrow, the stocks up almost 18% this year, but has been stuck in neutral for the past month. So does bob Iger have some magic to reignite Disney's mojo and later, let's cut shares of carvana all revved up, but look at what's behind the 65% rebound over the past week. I'm Courtney Reagan in this evening for Melissa Lee. This is fast money live from the NASDAQ market site on the desk tonight. We have Tim Seymour. Care environment, Dan Nathan, and guy adami. And we start with the debt ceiling showdown, President Biden meeting right now with congressional leaders from both parties in The White House. They've been at it now for just under an hour before the meeting truly kicked off The White House pool was in the Oval Office. The president said he wouldn't take any questions and ignored reporters asking him and House speaker McCarthy about whether they would cut a deal to prevent a debt default. Investors on edge ahead of this meeting, the major averages closing the day slightly lower, the Dow now down 6 of the last 7 sessions. Let's get more on today's meeting and the behind the scenes wrangling on the debt ceiling from NBC White House correspondent Monica Alba, Monica. Hi there, Courtney. That's right, this meeting has been going on for about an hour incredibly high stakes here with The White House and the president firm they say on their position, which is that they don't want to be negotiating at all when it comes to raising the debt ceiling. They believe this is Congress's constitutional duty to act as it has for decades under both Republican and democratic presidents. So this is a meeting that of course is taking place face to face and significant in the fact that it is occurring because for weeks now, The White House has said they didn't want to come together to negotiate on something that they essentially believe is essential to do because of the repercussions of a default, which of course has never happened before in American history. So during this meeting, we know that The White House is going in saying they don't want to pursue a short term extension, something that Republicans have also taken off the table for now. It seems speaker McCarthy telling our own Garrett hake earlier today that that's not something they wanted to do. They don't want to kick this can down the road. They want to deal with it right now, but both sides are completely dug in into their respective positions. So the goal of this meeting today is to find a little bit of common ground, but when we look to any potential off ramps, it's just unclear where this is going to go and the calendar is really squeezed down to just a couple of weeks with the president set to go overseas to Australia and Japan for much of the next week or so. And so that will of course then, again, make this even more difficult to try to get something done, but today is likely the first of several talks, so we'll see when they commit to speaking again, Courtney. Monica, thank you very much for that update. Guy, what do you make of this? Obviously, the market sort of quiet today as far as trading action goes as we're waiting to see if we'll get any resolution, although it seems that it's going to be an 11th hour decision, as it always is. I agree with that. And I think as long as the market stays where it is, this is one of those times where our world collides with the political world. And I'm sure they're watching and saying, well, you know what? Stock market doesn't seem to care. So there's no reason for either side to sort of acquiesce. Again, in my opinion, if something starts to break in our world, then maybe cool heads will prevail. But until something like that happens, I think they continue to sing up until the 11th hour, which it turns out is probably less than two and a half, three weeks from today. So I do think it gets worse before it gets better in terms of the rhetoric. And I think at some point, the market is going to start to behave that way. Dan, what do you think the market is expecting out of whatever the resolution will be? Yeah, listen, I think that just look at the fix right here under 18 and it doesn't suggest that there's too much fear as far as investors are concerned. Look at where the S&P 500 is trading right now. So I mean, I think that to guy's point that there will be some sort of agreement. I don't think it'll come with spending cuts if you think during the Trump administration, the debt ceiling limit was lifted three times. There was no deal on that. This is Congress's responsibility. I think you have a speaker in the House who's got very little control over his caucus and they're going to dictate that he kind of pushes it as far as he can here. And ultimately this thing will get resolved because I don't think it's in anyone's best interest to have our country default on. It's that not being able to pay its bills. And all the repercussions that would happen throughout the financial markets and the credit markets and the likes. So to me, I just think it's a bit of a sideshow until we get there. Karen, I don't know that any of the lawmakers are paying attention to what's going on in the markets. Do you think they are? Well, they do trade stocks. They know that. We know that. So they're very focused. I do think they get they get nervous when their constituents get nervous and to the extent that their constituents are invested in the market. I think that they do care about that. But they feel like, oh, we got all kinds of time. I mean, you know, may 9th, we got all kinds of time. Why do we need to, why do we need to do anything? I think it was good that sort of, I don't know if it was artificially or not, set the sort of made this June 1st deadline, because I don't know what was going to change if it was later. So hopefully we'll get something done, but I'd be very, very surprised. I think the least likely outcome today is that we see anything productive. Tim, do you have any concern about what's going on in the treasury market? Some of these short data treasury yields. Four month bills, trading more than the 6 month T Bill. Yes. And I do think that the treasury markets are more susceptible and certainly the stock market is showing no sign of concern on this. I'm going to say, I think stocks have priced in one iota, whatever and iota is. Not one basis point, not anything. And that's concerning because we're coming out of a period where I also think we've had the best of the earnings that we could have seen from the most important companies in the market. And so I think that the bond market is telling you more about where leading indicators are in the economy, bond markets telling you, we are moving towards a place where the economy will significantly weaken
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Back to fast money. Earnings season rolls on next week with 29 S&P 500 companies and one Dow component Disney reporting results. So which names are our traders watching? Jeff, let's start with you. Yeah, so I am watching Disney. I think it'll be an interesting one eiger back at the helm. This will be the first full quarter, so people will be listening pretty intently to what they have to say. I think the chart is interesting. Sort of battling at that $100 level. It's really been a battleground for many, many years for the stock. But I think people want to hear about growth relative to profitability. We saw what happened to paramount yesterday, talking about spending on additional content. So I think you might start to see a really clear divergence between the companies like Netflix. The companies like Disney who are able to rationalize that content spend versus all the rest. So I'll be very interested to hear that. And I actually think looking ahead looking at the earnings growth profile. I think it's a pretty good long-term value here. Bono in, how about you? What are you watching? Yeah, so I think the employment data today and the price action that we got on the back of that tells you all you need to know in terms of people looking at the consumer and the employment situation. So PayPal and a firm are two names that I'm focused on because it kind of will give me some insight into consumer and merchant trends. A firm particularly, I think that one really is going to be about what interest rates and where interest rates are and how they've impacted demand for the loans from that company, which I think might come under a little pressure here. Tim, I know you're watching Disney as a shareholder. What are you looking for there and which other ones are you watching? Well, on Disney, I think we've gotten a glimpse and a whisper on the profitability on the streaming side that's very important. I think Disney has more catalyst than people appreciate in terms of their asset base. I'm not saying they're going to be spinning off ESPN. In fact, I think Iger has indicated he does not want to do that. I think they have more than enough cards in a very interesting deck. But I just think the overall strength of the parks business is starting to come to light. I do think that the chart is interesting. I think it's held off some really important levels. Back to energy on Devon. They've been such a big underperformer even before this pullback. Some of this was a very CAPEX inefficient guide. Some of this is, I think, relate to their asset base. And I actually think the worst is over there. So I like that. All right. Guy, were you watching? I know you're an Omaha Nebraska yesterday. I was. Beautiful. Yesterday, did you catch the final trades? Because the name that you're watching was Dan's stop it. Was it Dan's final trip? But he did mention it in the show. So it's bad if I say I wasn't watching the show, but I should caveat that by saying I was indisposed. In other words, I was doing something at the time. Not that I wouldn't want to watch the show. Robin Hood. Yes. And you say to yourself, well, what if Robinhood, you hate, I do, actually. But if you look at Robinhood over the last few quarters, revenue is about the same, but they're losing less money each time. To the point where they could actually be profitable this time next year. So you have a little bit of an option here in Robinhood. That's what I'm watching on the tenth. Time for the final trade, let's go around the horn. Tim Seymour. Back to mega cap Tex, Cisco has not performed. It's certainly yesterday's mega cap check. But again, they report in two weeks. I do
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Out his case. I'm Melissa Lee this is fast money live at the NASDAQ market site on the desk tonight. Bonna and ice and guy dami, Tim Seymour and Jeff mills. And we start off with apple's big post earnings pop, the stock rallying more than four and a half percent today for its best day since November shares now up 34% this year. They closed just 3% from their all time high hit in January of 2022. Apple's move helping power the broader markets higher. The NASDAQ surging more than 2%. The Dow posting its best gain in four months. But is the rally all about Apple? Seems that way, guy. Yeah, well, I mean, if you listen, the quarter was fine, but declining revenues. Again, it's what you're willing to pay for a stock that seems to be slowing down in terms of growth. Which makes a lot of sense. It's not an indictment on Apple. It's just in terms of valuation. Probably trading close to 27 times next year's numbers. I think the stock buyback help. Now that there are bank clear that help. And I think the fact that as much of a disastrous Qualcomm was, people said, wait a second. Apple is going to fall victim. They probably got themselves off sides. Apple proved to be resilient. And that's what we're seeing today. Traded two times normal volume. It's a great reaction. It's a wonderful company. It's an expensive company in this environment. But maybe it should trade at a premium. It is. Defense of nature. That it has in this kind of market where people are looking for relative safety. We mentioned this last night. Would you rather pay, this is not a would you rather, but would you rather for instance pay 27 times forward for Procter & Gamble or about the same for Apple in this market environment? And that's the kind of choice investors are making right now. Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot going on, right? So there's one thing that actually was a flag to me. You saw that there was a bit of a challenge in the mobile gaming and digital advertising. And that speaks to the services revenue. And that's really what you point to when you say that this company deserves a premium multiple or re rating, if you will. But aside from that, I think 3% declining revenue that they've been pretty transparent about. It's not necessarily about their quarter. It's about what their quarter is and the moves that they're making, Vis-à-vis what's going on in the macroeconomic environment. Guy mentioned them essentially being a bank now. They're offering what is it, for four and a quarter, four and a half percent when you're seeing deposits flow out of regional banks. I think some of that is just circumstantial margin of safety and they are still showing resiliency in that iPhone. If it's not here, it's international. So you have all of that breath coupled with what's going on here that gives you concern. And it's a flight to safety trade. Yeah, they're talking about growth. Can you imagine in this environment, Tim, they were talking about growth in the emerging markets and developing countries, places like India, Indonesia, Latin America. I mean, they're finding growth somewhere in this world. Well, and Tim Cook had a big India discussion and trip recently and a lot of analysts got on board. And there were upgrades on that alone. So guys right to point out, I just think the offsides nature of the Qualcomm who's going to be down 20% in the March to June quarter and apple is going to be flat. So part of it is that part of it is the pricing power, part of it is they are taking market share in growth markets and they're taking market share in all markets. And don't underappreciate the financials of the company and the dwindling share count. And don't underestimate the fact that this also is coming on a day when, okay, so those are their numbers a day when we have a payroll number, hourly, hourly earnings are better than expected. Do you have a fed that largely told you there aren't hold? They're not cutting any time soon, but this is a backdrop for a market that now has leadership from Apple and Microsoft and Nvidia. These are the biggest companies in the world. And so it's market friendly as well. I think part of this move today is not just Apple. It's obviously the entire market went higher. But I think there's, yeah, we had a day one. We had even in the first post fed and then the next day, we digested that and markets arguably were concerned. There's not enough cut language in there. The fed's on hold. Rates have probably peaked inflation is probably peaked and people are underinvested under positions and sentiment is still not good. That's why you got what you got this week. I don't know, Barclays said something yesterday in a note. Or maybe it was the day before after the fed met. To the effect of the banking crisis seems to subside just a touch of earnings continue to come in decently. If things are sort of settling down and the economic data come in a little bit better than expected, that could really pave the way for a June hike. So when I saw the numbers out this morning, Jeff, I didn't necessarily think that this would be market friendly if the perception is another hike would be bad for the markets. Yeah, I think and we've talked about this a number of times, but we should be in a mode right now where good news is good news. If we're looking at a rate cut in July or sometime in the fall, this is a problem. Obviously, we don't want the fed to run too far too fast, but at the same time, I would rather see good labor market data than not. And I know maybe people might say, well, you're just looking for places to be negative about the labor market, but I am looking at certain leading indicators as far as the employment picture goes. Whether it's small business hiring plans, whether it's the challenger job cut survey, whether it's temp worker employment, which is a nice leading indicator, which was a little bit weak. So my guess is the labor market does continue to weaken. We see claims continue to rise and the fed is able to pause. But my question is, does that matter at this point? Has the fed already done too much? Is it too late? And are we going to see that weakening economy as we move through the rest of the year? And then what does it do to some of these earnings that have looked fairly positive? I'm looking at the leadership, the complexion of what's going on right now in the market. I've talked about some of the industrials, cat URI sort of breaking down copper versus gold. So gold perking up again. And then there's two year yield that is now well below the fed funds rate and you usually see defensive leadership when that happens. The bond market starts to anticipate a cut. So look, this is all good apple's earnings were solid, but I still see things under the surface that make me think that the equity market is going to have a hard time moving significantly higher from where we are today. And this is my interpretation of today. And we play this game from time to time. If I had told you, so you're so in my head because I actually was thinking about your work now. You're lying like a rug. Like 5 minutes. I was thinking the same thing, but laying out the game. Okay, go ahead. No, no, you go ahead. It's your show. No, no, no. Listen. If I had told you.
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Barton said in the release, our powerful brand and strong balance sheet put us on solid footing as we build the housing super app and help get more people home. Now they'll have just announced a new chat GPT feature to go up in the game home searches and of course Redfin just announced the same thing this afternoon. Melissa. All right, Diana, thank you, Diana oleck. It's the newest thing. It's the biggest fad. It's a little AI, but it'll be like this one. I do like the quarter. I like the name. I like the giant shift from owning houses to, of course, doing a one 80 and selling them all. Good for them for doing that. I like so it's now a much more asset light business. And I like that. And she talked about 14% down year over year on sales. Think about that, that's not bad at all when you consider what's happening. The housing market in the last year, they are the place to go to that rental is that rental revenue is great. That's a newer area for them. And so I like it. I think that hopefully if we see stabilization and recovery, they're going to be the place to go. I like it. I like it too. I liked it probably 20 bucks higher. So I need to like it a lot more from here. But I agree, this is a profitable company. This isn't a question of a company that's burning cash. And in fact, they are through some of these efficiencies going to be more profitable than ever on a much smaller scale. All right, up next, final trades. We're watching shares of PAC west in the after hours session down to 50 8% this on reports that it is weighing strategic options, including a sale. We should note that this move in the after hour session is being made on very heavy volume for an after hour session move. It's actually half the average daily volume that we're seeing traded here right now. All right, so down 58%. Time for the final trade, let's go around the horn. Tim Seymour. Tough day for oil, but energy transfer partners is a midstream utility that's going to, I think have significant yields over the next year and again, the
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Buy with a $13 price target Goldman all bulled up on the health and wellness companies foray into obesity medications calling it a catalyst for turnaround. The company formally known as weight watchers, closing its acquisition of telehealth provider sequence today, giving it access to drugs like ozempic and wago. Today's gains almost recaptures the pop the stock got after the deal was announced about a month ago. When you see your business being threatened by a class of drugs, that seems like a smart thing to do. It's interesting, right? The Goldman so Coleman had a $3 and 80 cent price target on the stock. Stock got down to $4, so they got that side right. Now they have a $13 price. So this becomes a trading stock, right? I mean, I think Karen would admit the company's probably in somewhat trouble at least the stock, but doesn't mean you can't trade around it. We've seen stocks show up 200% over the course of a week. And it looks like weight watchers is about to have one of those moves 75 million shares today, typically trades two. It's probably some more gas left in this tank. I thought it was an interesting deal, right? I mean, things are going, not in the right direction. So maybe this can help mount though, but I always look to the debt to get a better picture, and this company has a lot of debt. And if we take a look at this is senior debt, that's not a picture of it. But believe me, it goes way down the chart goes way down. 57 cents on the dollar. There we go. So that's telling you, there is some concern there about the business continuing to deteriorate. Those are not that they can mutually exist. A big trading stock and a company that's in a downward trend. Well, our make Terrell sat down with the FDA commissioner to discuss the new slate of weight loss drugs hitting the market. Meg, welcome. What do you tell you? Well, Melissa we talked about a lot of things with these medicines because the use of them is just exploding. You know, cowan is estimating that this market just for obesity drugs could be $30 billion by 2030. These are the medicines from novo Nordisk, they have the approved obesity drug we go V, as well as the type two diabetes drug ozempic, and then of course lily has the type two diabetes drug bone jarrow where they're waiting for approval in obesity as well. You know, there are a lot of people who are on the label for these medicines who are eligible for them, but there's also a lot of off label use. I ask the FDA commissioner what he thought about that. Here's what he said. Off label uses very common in we can't interfere with the practice of medicine and we want to do that. We need to make our communications clear about where the evidence exists for where the benefits outweigh the risks. Up until recently, I was a very busy practicing doctor and I wouldn't want the FDA telling me what my judgment should be when I see someone who doesn't quite fit the criteria, but there's a good chance it's going to work. But what we should be doing is collecting data about off label use. Now he's really focused on following those data and he says in a better system in the United States, we'd actually be able to use the real world data to be able to track the sort of longer term safety and efficacy of these medicines, so he's really pushing to improve that system, but he has a lot of optimism about these medicines. Mel? You know, it's interesting. He is a doctor, right? A cardiologist. And so I'm wondering, is there any thought Meg is to the longer term impact on other franchises of medicine if this drug can actually bring weight down and perhaps prevent other diseases from happening, whether it be heart attacks or diabetes or whatnot? Yeah, you know, there's a hope, of course, that these medicines will translate into fewer heart attacks, fewer strokes, you know, better heart health overall and possibly, you know, other things as well. We are going to see a trial read out on that very question for the use and obesity this summer for the nobu Nordisk drug. I have not yet seen analysts starting to model out the downstream impacts on heart medicines, for example. And many of these are generic, so it may not have a huge business impact, but it is something really interesting to consider. All right, Meg, thanks. Our own Meg Terrell. Tim, where do you stand on some of these drugs as catalysts for these stocks? Well, there's no question that part of this argument around weight watchers is that the addressable market has grown. So off label, the concept that America is going to be healthier and that there's a seemingly a way either through a prescription or through your brother's friend or something, but that either way the helpfulness of this is critical. And I think that the core pharma players out there have major pipelines that are there to support this industry. When it gets back to weight watchers, part of the Goldman argument is the addressable market size is just grown so dramatically that it just takes a small piece of that on top of say what you want about weight watchers, but they do have the brand equity where they can almost be the conduit to compliment that. And I think that's the main argument here. All right, up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Tim Seymour. Starbucks. So I'm long the stock. I'm selling upside calls around one ten to one 15. I just think that implies 32 to 33 times. I think it's rich. I love the company. I think you'll get it lower. Steve? Happy. Like the chart, I think it has a little room left
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"We will dig into the details on that and ask, is this the right way to fix what's broken with the banks? Plus that is monster move shares surging. More than 7% after it announced another big round of layouts Facebook now up over 60% this year is firing Friends, the new recipe for driving stock growth. And later, Boeing's international flight plans. The gig is up and a good way for Uber Lyft and DoorDash in crypto spring awakening. I'm Melissa Lee. This is fast money. We're live for NASDAQ Marcus. I had a full desk here on set tonight. Tim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Kourtney Garcia, and Gaia Damien. We start off with the regional bangle rebound, the KRE climbing more than 2%. This after the Treasury Department said this morning that all deposits in all banks, not just SVB and signature, are safe. Look at the gains and first republic PAC west, key court metropolitan and first foundation. Good times, again, apparently. Does this deposit insurance for all? Make the group more investable now and was this the right move? Billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin of Citadel says no. He believes capitalism is breaking down before our eyes. He is blasting the decision to make all depositors whole, adding there's been a loss of financial discipline with bailing out a compositors in full. There are a lot of people who weigh in on all sides of the situation here, but we bring this point up because this goes to, if we do this, is the sector better off from an investing standpoint. Are you more confident in it? Or does this just eliminate the moral hazard and let the banks do whatever they want with their balance sheets? So I took it as two different questions. But I could understand how you can morph them into one. But let's just look at it in terms of investable. I don't necessarily think any of these things are investable. I think they're tradable as sell. KRE, which traded down below 43 or so. That could probably spike back up to 58, which is where we broke down from, and nothing is effectively changed. So if you look into trade to space, yeah, I think it's tradable on the long side here without question. In terms of where we are in terms of capitalism, I've said it 50 times on this show. If you think we're capitalists think again, we capitalize gains and we socialize losses in this country. With that said, I think we would all probably agree that the people that had their money in these banks, the depositors should be made whole. It's a somewhat, I don't want to be nuanced here, but it's much different than bailing out the banks like we did in O 8 O 9. And you were making that point. It's not like we bailed out the CEO. It's not like bailed out investors by any stretch of the imagination. Right. For the debt and the equity zero for the entire management team, whatever stock they held, now we're zero. We'll get to the BSI of whether they should have sold stocks before. But so the moral hazard for that exists, right? I think so to your point for the depositors, I agree. I mean, we can't expect depositors to think, wow, boy, their duration risk is really too high, right? I mean, we did a renovation and they engineered and we took their say so that yes, this is structurally sound. If it were on me to figure that out, I would never be able to do it. And so we wouldn't be able to function if people had to deposit an institution that they only understood. So that doesn't make sense to me, but I think what is another issue is, okay, if we did bail out or state to depositors, don't worry, you're insured. Is this a free ride? There's no other strings that go along with this for the regional banks, right? Or for anything, really. What would some of the, what would some of those strings be? I mean, if they were oversight, regulatory capital. An inability to put some conditions on their loan book. Their asset book, their duration risk. We needed that last month for sure, but all kinds of things. And so the unintended consequences and cost of that, I don't know, this knee jerk reaction makes sense. But if you've effectively socialized banks at that point because there's no difference between the safety of your deposits or why I mean, I get why there's different reasons why you go to a bank. But for a lot of these community banks, I think if you make them all guaranteed, they look the same. That sound you hear right now is the sound of tightening standards going on around the country. And you can't tell me as an investor in banks that that's good. You can't tell me as an investor in banks that their cost of capital didn't just go up. They've got cost to pay back. They're now competing more than ever for depositors. They're going to have to pay more. It's great for us. We're going to get more on that Christmas Christmas account. Sure. I can toast it. Oh yeah. Calculator. Thank you. Absolutely. Yeah. So that bothers me. By the way, is that all you got? I mean, they finished up 2% after that kind of an announcement. I don't think that was very good price action at all. So and I would just say this more broadly, both for the economy and for the country. We're not better off today. We're worse off on some level because of what has happened just because if you get back to ground zero, I don't think we now can get past this. The flip side though is that if there are more regulations in theory to prevent this from happening again, then you won't be the bag holder in a situation like SVB. There would be less of that sort of danger of that of the rug being pulled out from under you from this sort of circumstance. In theory, if there are more regulation to prevent this from happening. Right. And I think that's really the problem that's happening right now is there isn't at this point in time, a systematic issue with the banks. But if everybody loses confidence and starts pulling their money out, it will create an issue. So I think what's happening right now is they're just trying to ensure that doesn't happen. The confidence loss doesn't happen. So the fundamentals are there, right? But if we all lose faith in everything, it's going to be gone. And so at this point in time, they're not actually guaranteeing everything. They're just saying it's safe, which is different than changing legislation, and none of that has actually changed yet. So I think it's too soon to say, are the banks going to be overly regulated? Is it going to be bad for their bottom line? At this point, they're just trying to tame confidence. It's really all that's going on. Right. Although a ranking GOP member of the House financial services committee has said that he wants to propose at least temporarily for maybe 12 months or so, guaranteeing all deposits. So that could be an interesting development. And that's something on the GOP side of things, which is a little bit surprising. It is. But it reminds me during the pandemic, fed came out and said, we are here, we will do whatever it takes. We will buy governments will buy investment grade. We'll even buy high yield. And just them saying that alone was enough. They actually didn't even need to do it. And in fact, they hardly bought any of the investment grade or high yield. And yet, just the statement enough was enough to sort of fix the financial system that was on the verge. So they're doing that again. It's the same thing. I mean, it seems to be working at the moment, but we don't know yet how it's going to shake out. That's an interesting proposal. That was the same comments that, I mean, Hank Paulson back in the worst of the financial crisis. Again, he's the turn having a bazooka in your pocket. There's no question, but again, I get back to we don't really know what the regulations support you're right. I mean, you can't speculate. But you can't tell me that banks who are trying to give more money back to investors in the form of dividends and buybacks. And it finally got into a place after 15 years where they're actually in a place. City banks got a four and a half percent of yield. Some of that's because the stock's underperformed. But all the banks have become a place where big pensions and endowments and people that want to own dib based stocks, banks are giving money back. You can't tell me banks are going to be able to give more money back that marginal dollar back now more. If anything, they're going to say, you've got to stay more capitalized. Keep the money in-house. And I just think it really puts, I think, a cap on what banks can be valued. The other side, though, is also from the smaller banks they could lose deposits in those deposits will go to the larger bank. Which is what they're dealing with right now. I mean, city, JPMorgan, all those guys are dealing with floods of people who want to move their money right now to them away from a smaller bank, which you can understand.
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"I don't know. I don't know. Phenomenon. I've been saying that for years. So I think for me, it is definitely a trade, but it is a flight to quality and who knows how long that lasts. Yeah. How about you, Tim, traded her face? I'm gonna fade that. And I'm gonna at least tactically fade it because and I would go back a month ago. I mean, if it wasn't for chat GPT and then the fact that the triple cues NASDAQ 100 have outperformed the S&P by ten and a half percent in the last 45 days, you've had a great move. So we all know what they've done. We all know that actually the last even 5 years in Microsoft have been so extraordinary. You've had a couple of different phases and obviously the current phase and one where they've really dominated cloud. But valuation is not great, but tactically is a trader here. You've had a great run. I think you take some profit. Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn, Tim Seymour. Yeah, McDonald's. We've gotten some data on January sales and even into February. I think the restaurant industry remains strong. Some of the price and pressure. McDonald's is very defensive in this environment. Stay long, the golden arches. Bono and iceman. Yeah, I would continue to let things like wash out. But when you want to step back into the regionals, if they're just where I'd look. Steve grassle, who did step in. I did step in. It was supposed to be a one day trade as I said at the top of the show. Key core, I'm in it. Let's see how far it can run tomorrow. Wow. Okay, Karen. So I'm kind of looking for a little bit of a port in the storm and particularly maybe even Silicon Valley, so I come back to my favorite Google. Lots of cash. Maybe potential opportunities now for them. For in terms of acquisitions, talent, I don't know. All right. Thank you for watching fast money. We'll see you back here tomorrow at 5 for more fast, meantime, do not go anywhere, mad money with Jim Cramer starts right now. Hi, I'm Tom yamas, and for me the news is so much more than a headline. It informs it inspires and it still matters. To cover it, you have to be in it. And that's what mine show is gonna do. We'll take you to the
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"We'll charge BTC's next move. And later, a dollar in a dream. It's a 37th anniversary of Microsoft going public. We'll show you the staggering return and ask our desk. If now is the time to trade it or fade it. I'm Melissa Lee, this is fast money we're live at the NASDAQ market site full desk here in house tonight. Tim Seymour Karen Feynman thought it was nice and Steve Grasso. We start off with a real battle between fear and greed, the action of the regional banks after the collapse of SVB and signature was downright scary today. The KRE, the regional bank ETF finishing the day down 12%. It's tenth drop in 11 days. First republic, the biggest loser closing the session down almost 62%. At one point falling more than 70%, a host of other regionals, PAC west, key court, bank united Zions, also getting hit hard today. And then there's the move in rates, the two year with its biggest three day move since October of 1987. We all know what happened then. But then there's this. The arc innovation fund jumping more than two and a half today. Amazon, alphabet, apple, solidly higher. So yes, there was a bank meltdown with lots of carnage, but Goldman Sachs is out saying this could cause the fed to stand pat. No rate hike next week. So here's the question. Does the fed on hold outweigh fears of a banking crisis? Tim, that's what the market seems to be telling us. I think in the short run, it's easy to see where triple cues and the NASDAQ and the big, you know, the massive money center, excuse me, tech companies. Yes, they are in some level are the ones that are outperforming. I think about the lending standards that are tightening by the second. I think about the dynamics here for the economy more broadly. Those concerned me, if you're someone that believes that it's a one to one relationship between rates, I would go straight to the fed fund futures, which were at 5 65. Four days ago are now down to three 93 on where we were at terminal fed funds, which was out in November. It's now into May, all of these things on rates, but there's no question that still we've always said there was a lot of fed impact waiting to hit. And so far, again, we still haven't even seen a lot of the effects here. Yeah. Karen, what'd you make of this action today? Well, I mean, a lot of things. There's still a ton of uncertainty, right? We understand that notion of at least for these banks, the signature Silicon Valley bank, and sorry, we all have this static. Let me know if I need to. Let me know if I need to do anything. It's like fire or anything. But does it extend more broadly? I sort of assume that it does. But for the regionals, like we talked about in the middle of the day, this is just a staggering change because every depositor has to be thinking, God, if I have over 250,000, I've got to go somewhere else. I just can't take the risk. And so are we creating now a sort of almost European system of a small number of very large banks. And if you're a regional bank, that's quite disconcerting, right? But is it overdone? I think people like the regional banks. And they do provide value. And then the other thing that I found fascinating was first republic, right? So it's alive. It's sort of Walking Dead and it's sad because this is an extraordinary institution. This is a great product. And yet depositors have to leave. Where are they going to go? And if you're running this bank and you want to try to sort of get it back on the rails, if you maintain deposits, what do you do with them? Can you make loans? Do you have to buy tiny bit out of the curve? How do you how do you run a bank profitably? Right. It seems to me like somebody needs to buy them. Right. And then, of course, over all of this overarching is the concern that there's going to be increased regulation on the entire sector. How that will affect banks and their performance and their ability to make money going forward. But at some point, I heard this phrase throughout the day and I think that this is the perfect time to use it. Are we throwing the babies out with the bathwater? I mean, at some point, some banks do deserve perhaps a 50% haircut. You know, we won't know for a while, but do others deserve that too. Do others deserve a 20%, 30, because that's what we saw pretty much across the board in regional banks today. Well, I mean, it's the same within that subsector, as you seem with deposits, which is like, you're going to make the run first and then ask questions later. You're going to make the run. You're going to at least get your money in a safe place. You're going to shore up your own personal investable liquidity. And then you're going to go through and see what they're holdings are in terms of how to maturity securities, deposits on hand, concentration risk, things of that nature. And to answer your earlier question in terms of the push pull between the rate move and where we are in terms of the stock market performance that we've seen today, I think in the short term, the overarching thing has been monetary policy. But if this is the thing that is the first to break, we have yet to see what the implications are of all the tightening that we've seen. And so by that measure, I don't think it's even close. I think this is the first crack. This isn't even a break. This is a crack. They've been able to shore it up. They've rushed, they put all hands on deck and created these facilities to shore up liquidity. But what does this mean for the credit markets? That's going to be the breaking. So do you think that that's the reason why the fed? Because that's a long and variable effect or pause on it. So do you think the fed should, is this a direct reflection? Because that's what I'm asking myself is this from the fed, where these actions specifically from the fed. And then he can't raise this month. If we've all decided if the actions you mean the actions were from the fed, meaning, was all of this caused by a rapid rise in interest rates. It certainly was exacerbated by it. So if that was to some extent, then you would think that's warranted for him to at the very least pause. I think that they'll probably go 25 basis points because they're just sort of really dug in on that. I think that he's warranted to do nothing. But I think that might scare the markets more.
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Right now I'm past bracing for Powell, stocks mostly stuck in neutral as the market awaits the fed shares two days of testimony on Capitol Hill. Will Jerome Powell stick to the recent script of higher for longer, plus TikTok on the clock, a bipartisan pair of senators set to introduce legislation tomorrow that will let the government ban or prohibit foreign technology and products like TikTok, the ripple effect on the tech sector in relations with Beijing. Then big oil is bet on where prices are heading right now. Apple's new fan on Wall Street and the chart master's list of beaten down names he thinks are ready for a reversal of fortune. I'm Melissa Lee, this is fast money. We're live with the NASDAQ market site on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour Karen Feynman, Bonham and eisen and Steve Grasso. We start off with a countdown to Powell on the hill, the fed chairman set to face the House financial services committee tomorrow. Investors keyed into any indication for how much higher the Central Bank will take interest rates. Stock seeing a late day fade ahead of his statement that thou giving up a gain of over a 180 points to end the day, basically flat, and as I got more of a percent of as high as ending just in the red, race meantime taking back higher, the ten year climbing back towards 4%. So compelling anything tomorrow that will put the steam back into the markets. We play this game often, where I say, if you knew what he was going to say, if he knew what this fed speaker was going to say, do you know how the markets would react? And we often say, no, so what do you think, Karen? I think I'm certain I don't know how the markets will react. I can tell you what I think he will say it should say is higher for longer. I think that is the path of least resistance, actually. And I think until we get any data prolonged data, not just a one month print, prolonged data to say that inflation is really under control. Or that the labor market has really moved, neither of which we've seen any hint of, really, that I think you'll just continue with that. Well, for a fed that tends to show up the party later than they should have. They get to party late, which sometimes fashions me late in this case. It really wasn't. And they stayed too long. I think the expectation from the markets here. I think they're pretty set in the concept that the fed is going to not change higher for longer. We have had some data over the last couple of months. Obviously, the 517,000 payroll number of a month ago and this Friday we have a huge job number. I think is critical for equities. I actually think that the markets are listening more to the data than they are the fed. I think we know what the fed's mattress is. We get the chorus. We get this light of, the slight hawk. Everybody's saying the same thing. We see what happened to fed fund futures. The most important thing is it moved from a place where we had 30 or 40 basis points of cutting to a place where we have about 15 basis points. You move that terminal rate out to October. The market is telling you that they believe they know the fed is in the game. I don't think he's going to tell us anything new. In fact, politics really get into play tomorrow in the next couple of days because I think there are people on the hill that don't want to hear of an overly hawkish fed. But I think they're not going to change their game. I tend to agree, I just think some of the terminals, some of the terminology might be a little bit different. That disinflation word was used. I don't know. No short of 30 or so times the last time he spoke. And I think the market found a way to find some dovishness within that. So I do want to start the economic data has continued to be strong. The labor market has continued to be strong, inflation. I think we all have accepted that higher for longer is likely the mantra going forward. But I think he will be a bit more reticent to acknowledge developments that would lead to an eventual pause or pivot. And I think it's going to be that nuance in terms of him being very cautious in terms of acknowledging developments that would lead us or be interpreted to lead us to a lower terminal rate that will be front of mind. Yeah, I mean, the higher for longer marketing to believe the higher. I don't know if they believe the longer if you take a look at what we're pricing in here. I mean, the idea that there is a pause or a pivot in store at the beginning of 24 Grasso. That doesn't seem like longer if you think that the terminal rate is going to be hit in July. I mean, that's a matter of months. Maybe that's long for some people. But I feel like it's not a long time at all. Right, so a couple of things. So we have to remember, though, that the market when it's when it's hearing from the chairman, the market has been rallying. That's a different dynamic than we've had in the past. So when Powell speaks, the market has rallied. Second, he's going to be in front of the Senate tomorrow. Senate is going to push him dovish. He's going to be in front of the house on Wednesday. The house is going to push him hawkish. So I think he's going to have to thread the needle. He's never going to going to be as dovish as the Senate wants. Or as Hawkins is the house wants. He has to sort of wade in the middle someplace and I think other than the fact that the market ran today, I would have said the market was going to run tomorrow. Again, on Powell's speech. So maybe I have a reverse, but I think the theme is Senate is definitely going to bash him on jobs and make him sound more dovish. We've seen a trading range pretty much. And I think we've been ping ponging back and forth across.
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"I'm Melissa Lee this is fast money. We're live at the NASDAQ market site on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan, Nathan, Bono and ice and gaya dami. And we start off with another red hot inflation report producer prices jumping in January, the latest sign the fed has more work to do cooling down the economy. The news comes on top of continued strength in the consumer. Retail sales rising more than expected last month, plus a new report from the New York fed showing credit card debt is at record levels and then there's this. St. Louis fed president James buller Jess saying he would not rule out a 50 basis point rate hike at the Central Bank's next meeting. A more aggressive move than many expect and another nod to the Central Bank's higher for longer mantra. At risk assets, they keep rallying, check out the moves in high multiple stocks just this week, vastly jumping another 15% today is now up more than 60% since Monday, Roku, Airbnb and Twilio also posting big games. Even Bitcoin seems strength briefly climbing back above the 25,000 mark in the final hour of the day. The market seemed to be waking up to what the fed is throwing down, but how long will that wake up call last? Finally, the market responded to him. It's crazy if you think about it, first of all, that the bond market is actually catching up to the fed instead of the fed to the bond market, which is new for what we've been seeing. And this is over the last three weeks. The dynamic about the higher multiple stocks, the longer duration equity trades that make no sense in a world where you've gone from 4.3 to four 65 on the two year and you've gone from three 33 to three 83. I mean, we all have done that math. Every other time we've done that, those stocks have sold off. It's coming at a time when we're at almost giddy kind of sentiment in markets all relative to where we've come from. And we're at a time where there's really been nothing coming out of this earnings season that says equity should be running for cover. So I'll quote Marco colony from JPMorgan, who's on our show all the time. It does a great job. It's almost as if it's not even that don't fight the fed. The markets are taunting the fed, which is what he said in his note, and I think that's right. Wait, the bad parts of the stock market are taunting the fed. The S&P is up 6 and a half percent. Okay, again, we're down 20 some percent last year or so. That felt pretty bad to close near the lows of the year. That sort of thing. But 6 and a half percent is not impressive. You think about the stuff that has rallied now, you just mentioned a fastly. That stock was down almost 90% from its all time high. It's just left for dead. How many stocks this week rallied 10% plus after their earnings expected. And those are stocks that are all down to 80%. You just mentioned crypto, the spac stuff. It's all the garbage, okay? It's all the garbage. So think back now, the last time the ten year US Treasury yield was trading at three 8 four. That's where we are right now, was late December. The S&P 500 was down at 3800, okay? It's at 4100 right now. That doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense when you think about the dollar has rallied since then, crude oil has rallied since then. So again, financial conditions and inflation is back. And we had a PPI number. This week, the show's goods inflation is actually coming back. Translate to consumer prices. And that's kind of my main point here is like this feels like the move that we had March April last year, June into August, October and December, it really feels like for some reason, I think a lot of investors just said, they're done being bearish. They're done being in this sort of environment and the sentiment just changed too quickly too fast. I think it's going back the other way. I'm going to clean up the English just a little bit. I'm not going to quite go as far as to say that it's garbage, but I'm with you here. It's certainly the stuff that it's not the first in. If we're talking about lifo or 5 O counting, it's not the first stuff in your portfolio. And it's likely the first stuff out of your portfolio when you're rotating out. And because of that reason, once people kind of got behind the curve in terms of the fomo, missing out on the rally, that's likely the stuff that they went to kind of pile up on. I will say to the broader economy, I think part of this move is to impart because we have seen a slowdown in terms of earning revisions. We have seen a fed that continues to be hawkish. But we also have not seen the slowdown that come to a screeching halt that we all feared might happen. These GDP numbers from Q four still point to a pretty robust situation. And that's why you have these calls for no landing at all. So I think it's that situation why we continue to rally all be it to my dismay, but we haven't seen the crunch from an economic standpoint that should go hand in hand with monetary tightening. Guy. Well, I don't know where there's no land. I'm sure somebody that coined that thinks they're extraordinarily clever, but I don't buy into it necessarily. I think the retail sales numbers gave both foals and bears something to look at. But then to Tim's earlier point, this PPI number is disastrous if you somehow think magically this fed is going to pivot into back half. And I don't even know if it's about rate hikes anymore, as much as it's about the duration with which rates are going to stay elevated. And I think that's what the market is coming to grips with. I was fascinated earlier today to see how well the market traded. As a matter of fact, at one point today, the market was going to sort of test unchanged only to give it back later. I think today's action to me at least starting to make sense at 4100 the S&P is still too expensive in this environment. And some of the reversals that we saw today and oh, by the way, for you bingo players, I mean, that gap file in reversal that we've talked about that doji star and Facebook that we laugh together collectively about. Yeah, guess what happened there, right before your very eyes, it's coming to fruition.
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"The numbers, and from the D line to the bottom line, eagles offensive end and Dominican Sue will join us. He may have lost a Super Bowl, but he's winning off the field. We'll talk to him about his relationship to Warren Buffett and his financial literacy push. I'm Melissa Lee, this is fast money. We're live at the NASDAQ market site on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour Steve Grasso, Jeff mills, and guy adami. And we start off with a stunning admission from a major autoexec. Ford CEO Jim Farley, opening up about why the company has fallen behind its competitors and what it means to do to improve its position. Shares a forward down slightly today and have lag far behind the likes of Tesla and GM this month. So what exactly is behind the shortfall? Let's get to Phil lebeau who's got all the headlines there, Phil. Melissa, Jim Farley was talking at the wolf research conference today. It was a fireside chat with him and the CFO John Lawler talking with the analyst there saying, here's where the company is right now. Basically, the same message that we've heard over the last several days where they say, look, we are at about a 7 or $8 billion cost disadvantage relative to our competitors. We think that at a minimum we can address almost immediately things like warranty costs as well as the inefficiencies when it comes to engineering. It's not going to happen overnight, but there is the plan from Jim Farley. And then there is the question about whether or not he can continue the pivot that Ford has begun when it comes to electric vehicles. Lots of news on that front today. This afternoon, we heard from Ford regarding the production halt of the F one 50 lightning. Remember yesterday the company confirmed that they stopped production last week because they found a discrepancy in one of the battery cells for a vehicle pre delivery. So they halted production. That's going to be halted through next week because of this battery issue. The good news, if you're a Ford investor, is that you're hopeful that what they say here comes to fruition. They have found the root cause. It may have been found according to the company, and if they have found it, and they can address it, then they'll start up production, potentially by the end of next week, if not the following week. Remember, EVs are the future for Ford. Yes, I know that the money comes right now from the internal combustion engine business. But Jim Farley is basically said, we've got to be bigger and better and profitable in EVs. Yes, they're number two. The target is for 600,000 production by the end of this year. Today, Jim Farley said that they will move towards non negotiable EV pricing next year. He believes that's going to be a game changer. It will be much easier for you to go online and say, I want a Mustang Mach-E. What's the price boom? I'll order it. No haggling with the dealer. So when you look at Ford, keep in mind that the target they have established right now is for 8% EV margins by 2026, which is also Melissa when they say that they will have annual sales at a pace of 2 million vehicles by the end of 2026. They got a long ways to go between now and that. Phil, can they circumvent the dealer in this case? They believe that they can change the cost they believe they can change the cost equation in terms of working with their dealers. They're not going to circumvent them. But they are going to have to work with those dealers. They've made a lot of progress in that area, but they still have a long ways to go. Phil, thanks. Phil lebeau. So how should we look at the Ford story? Are we on the cusp of a turnaround? Or is it way too early to say at this point, Tim? Well, Jim Farley has not been let's put it this way. He has been out there talking about this for a long time. And what was very clear is in the auto industry. Some of these changes take a while to implement. This is not going to happen overnight. There are cost deficiencies, differences between Ford and GM. Why Ford's credit? Entity was that much more costly and less cash flow journey if they didn't pay a dividend this earnings period is of some questions. So what you saw this week, they sacked 3600 jobs in Europe. They are going to streamline operations there. The model right now is really one more like North America or even South America, where they have fixed cost base and they're trying to leverage that. But this is nothing new. You can make an argument that Ford is traded at a discount to GM, even over the last couple of years because of this, even though Ford really over the last couple of years has outperformed GM substantially because that whole EV story is something that's been very exciting. I feel like we want to we want to be happy for GM before. And I feel like we want to be constructive for GM and Ford on a constant basis. They're both trailing Tesla. And I think where you were going with that dealer comment was it's more like Tesla now to circumvent the actual dealership and do everything online and have a no haggle price. Is that where you're going or? I was just wondering if legally or contractually they can actually do that versus have the dealership be the seller. I feel like GM and Ford rightfully so we see who holds the market share. They are really trying to struggle here Ford is not winning and I think it's way too early to invest in a turnaround. I mean, in the land of investors, Jeff mills, if you're an investor looking at an auto company, you're looking at an auto company who may
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Back to pass money. We've got a bitcoin alert. Crypto currency collapsing. Today right. now it's down more than ten percent. This big move lower testing coin base which reported service issues today. Let's go aiming jobbers who has been tracking the very latest on this amen. Yeah melissa joint base told us earlier in the day that they did have some problems related to volume. They said though that was cleared up at about one forty pm east coast time. Here's the tweet that they put out explaining what had happened. They said transactions are now going through normally and service issues have been resolved. We've taken steps on our end to maintain stability and keep our services up. Thank you for your patience and understanding while we worked to address this. So what happened here to 'cause all this well. Here's the explanation. Officially from coin based they say a sudden increase in network traffic and market activity lead to a degradation in our services. We're seeing improvement with our app services. However transaction services are still degraded funds. Settlement will be delayed while we cover so not a clear answer in terms of a lot of detail of what exactly happened here. But they're saying simply volume was the problem here so clearly a lot of interest in bitcoin today and other crypto currencies as we saw what happened in the overall crypto market today and then Coin bases stock price itself. Taking his result of some of these issues they had today. They do say melissa. They've now got it worked out and things should be getting back to normal before too long. We'll see overnight and into tomorrow morning how that actually plays out all right. Amen thank you image average tracking this forest meantime the big breakdown in bitcoin calms el salvador becomes the first country to adopt the currency as legal tender. Let's bring in our own brian. Kelly joins us on the fast sign. beaks thanks for joining us. What's your take on on the decline and we've seen. Yeah so. I mean. I hate to keep saying this but it is somewhat normal to to what happens in bitcoin and what we saw today was really similar to what happened in. May where you get this cascade effect as stop orders they had we had about three billion dollars worth of stop or does get hit and liquidated in a relatively short period of time that did coincide with some tweets from the president of el salvador. As well as some comments from the imf. So i think what happened is people got spooked. Stops were triggered and we just cascaded muller what role did the coin base difficulties outages. Whatever you wanna call it play in this. If any so that all the exchanges actually had issues when you get that big rush. The exchanges just aren't at the point where they can scale out so what is doing it. Creates back on the initial downdraft. There's no buyers there and then you gotta wait till they come wait till the exchanges. Come back up before you can get money back in and start buying again and we're starting to see that now. How big of a deal is el salvador. I understand the symbolic nature of it but polls show that people in el salvador. Very skeptical of using bitcoins. We even if this happens in. Remittances are twenty three percent of its gdp in mostly remittances from the united states. That there might be slow adoption. Even with this adoptions legal tender. Yeah i think you know. Listen even everybody in el salvador decided that they wanted to use bitcoin You know it probably wouldn't have that much in fact it's a sentiment at that right and now you've got to think about the other countries that may start using this itself america You might see somebody. The the big one would be brazil. They happen to have a currency breakdown. So it's more about. Hey we're giving us a shot. This has gotta be kinda the trial run and everybody else around the world looking at it. That would be the bullish case at the same time. People may not use them in el salvador. Yeah down eleven percent right now. Became baller like yourself. This is probably not a buying opportunity per se. Given that you say this is sort of to the mill training action desouza buying opportunities nothing about the fundamental that have Changed in my view. We're still seeing a lot of institutional adoption. we're still seeing money printing around the world so this for me is a is a bio. Brian is could speak with you. And i haven't called brian. Brian kelly in years tim seymour. Obviously emerging mark to the emerging markets specialist naturally because places like africa places like south america. That's where it would make a lot of sense for bitcoin to be adopted. And i think whether it's you know fungible and non fungible the rudimentary kind of usage. Were still one point. Oh but this is. This is part of the future. And this is part of what we've talked about on fast money over the last three or four weeks especially as we've gotten into the the in nfc and what's been going on in the art world and that you're actually seeing people think about things and actually do conversions back to back to what things actually cost and so we're still so early on this I i said on today's call earlier is that i think people are licking their chops on this pullback especially when brian reinforced that this is not fundamentally based really so i just think that there's a lot of people that are starting to get some sense of of where commercial use is beginning and even if it's in what i still think are going to be a lot of boom bust dynamics in call it the art world but for now. I think there's been a lot of value that's been been been created and we'll see but i i think again. This is a very large headline in terms of el salvador in terms of the senate and yes. There are a lot of countries around the world where there's zero confidence in their currency and those will be countries that will adopt faster really bad news for coin based on a day when when trading volume is really heavy guy for an exchange have difficulties. It seems like that's kind of day that the exchange needs to actually be functioning without a problem. Extreme volume should be days that they wish for right and it shouldn't be a problem. And i thought it was really interesting. That the stockton sell off more than it did. It just speaks to the fact that you know coin basis not going anywhere. It's here to stay even with the salt. If you're talking about a company with a sixty five sixty six billion dollar market cap. I bring that up because they might be well deserved that and might be going higher. But if that is in fact the case and i've said this on a number of occasions in nasdaq should be a lot worth a lot more than thirty five billion or so that their trading. So how do you trade. This well coin base. I think it's going to be fine. I think nasdaq is going to be the winner of all this when people realize how valuable property. They are all right dance doing that. Dan does with his head. When you sort of dismissing what somebody else is saying. That's a damn doing. I'm sure i mean. That's not guiding. I were on a call at eleven thirty and somebody like spoke ear and said bitcoin is crashing and we went away and i went and bought some just some theorems crank kelly said. It's by opportunity..
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Energy suck surging on the back of the rally in oil prices. But should you be pumping into that trade. We'll dive and fat necks. And we're building up to toll brothers earnings tomorrow. How often traders are laying the foundation for that report. Don't go anywhere fast. When he's back into welcome to money oil prices rebounding in a big way today with crude sewing more than five percent. Its biggest gain since march the move snaps a seven day losing streak and brought energy stocks along for the ride shares of exxon mobil. Conaco philip slumber j. marathon occidental all posting strong gains in. Today's session. Tim seymour you you buy this move do by the move and look at painful period especially for h. and oil services names if you look at the mp's I stress that these companies are being run differently so first of all. We're talking about companies many of these companies in the space Like yoga have ten percent or better. Free castle yields are trading three to four times and have less than one times leverage. I mean these are companies that are actually starting to initiate buybacks. Even before they get into you know they're they're big capital markets programs and i think they are being run for equity investors so i realized the market is not rewarded. These names but at sixty to sixty five dollar oil. These companies are very free cash flow genitive so I do think there's a place for investors to be investing in a number of the best of breed companies. Here and i liked this balance. I think he goes further. Brian kelly you have to believe that the dollars remain tame. I mean part of the reason for the seven day. Losing streak in the first place was a stronger dollar dollar nine month highs basically assuming that a stronger dollar isn't a reflection of a stronger global economy. I would agree with that But tim's point. I think you do have to buy this and you look at what the big you know the large-cap oil names are. They remind me very much of the tobacco stocks right. They have some segment of the investing community. That cannot walk ten Own them any longer but they're still generating a ton of cash. And then i look at the oil side of it. There's both the demand and the supply aspect here right. So we've got china which is now decided to bail out the people as opposed to their companies and then you've got opec who i said. Hey wait a second. Delta came along. Maybe we're not going to increase supply that much so those two dynamics at least at the very least seem to be holding oil up above a certain level which should be good for all the dividends and capital return plans that the large-cap stocks have i agree. I mean i think you see just even if it's a training bounced some of these names you know. We talked about sex which traded up to ninety five. I thought it was going one hundred and wake up a couple of weeks later. It's straightened in the low sixties. But you'll get a training bounce on a lot of these names. one is six out to me though. Sort of halliburton here from twenty five to nineteen seemingly in a straight line. I think that's soccer balanced here as well coming up.
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Money meantime checkout crude oil soaring lately briefly above seventy bucks a barrel oil stocks surging as well. Let's trade this tim. You think oil stocks are undervalued or oil is itself overvalued and it's going to come down because there's a big gap between the two cheat and relative to i think how they're running their businesses as i said earlier with julian manual that i think a lot of these companies are fundamentally different companies that were investing What i say about commodities all the time is you don't buy commodities when the cheap you buy an expensive especially commodity stocks and i think the momentum here where we are with commodities right now outside of where we were going into the financial crisis. I'm not saying that's where we're going with this. But in terms of where we had a commodity super cycle bubble. We're back to early. Seventies in terms of commodity prices overall This doesn't just doesn't happen overnight and it doesn't end overnight and i think until the fed really puts the boot on what's going on that we talk about all the time i think can run higher and again the pain traders that runs higher and the paint trade for a lot of people's also that could include airlines whose hedges are not what they used to be and some of these companies and even you saw this in their last quarter numbers to some of those energy names and i know you know this brian These guys were were headed out at numbers were not necessarily collecting the windfall that it appears so make sure you know what you're buying excellent point about the balance sheet some of these companies by the way have come out of bankruptcy so a lot of the debt has been scrubbed off. Jeff mills if you bring up like a ten year charter. The price of oil and tom lee. This is his chart by the way. And he's done great work on it if you bring up oil versus the soap or the xl league or the h whenever oil was at seventy basically where it is now. The price of these names was ten. Fifteen twenty dollars higher than they are now. So to tim's point. Tommy's point something as miss priced here. Yeah i think there's a catch up to be had in energy stocks if you look at the way. Things are trading just around energy stocks pause for about three months right but if you look at the credit spreads they actually continued to tighten throughout that period of time and now you have ninety five percent of energy names trading above their own fifty day moving average. There's a lot of momentum. There i think the x. l. e. holding forty seven is really important. But how you get exposure important energies top heavy and i think a lot of the best charts are away from those big three young guy. Look at the chart okay. The white line there guys is the price of oil and for the first time in ten years. The price of oil on a relative basis is high. You're look at that again higher than the stop. I'm looking at it. You don't have to tell me twice. I see not happen to agree with you. Tom lee tim seymour. Jeff mills a general karen if she gets in on this because she's bullish well. I think energy stocks in catch up. And we've mentioned we mentioned phillips sixty six twenty minutes ago will mention it again. Ninety two close today highest. It's been in many many years. I think it's going to ratchet up to one ten and you're going to start. Seeing analysts have to raise their numbers. I think this j. p. morgan energy conference on june twenty second if memory serves only stocks into that weight. One ten oil now the stock. Oh excuse dummy not use call and furled buckton oil. Karen turn feinerman look at the chart. Karen i can't i can't see it actually but i line the white line okay given that the guy thinks you're saying should have and i've actually been under weight energy. You know. i look at energy being in tango. And you know. I think the near-term price. Maybe we'll see a continue or not. But if i had to increase my exposure i would either do it through the o. H we're the osx if you want not just oil services but if you want you know other parts you know drilling and production then i would do. The osx underweight maybe. That's all changing. Art was pregnant. Mike for a look at some interesting options activity in one of the big energy names mike. What caught your eye today. I was taking a look at conaco. Phillips traded about one point eight times it's average daily volume and the big trade that caught my eye was the fifty eight and a half fifty eight put spread the traded expiring at the end of this week of thousand of those traded but it was only a ten cent trade basically making a bet that the stock could give back three percent. By week's end the other big trade was a sale of the august fifty five. So i don't think this is overwhelming barish. Just a little bit of a bet on a small pullback by weeks okay thank you very much and as always more options.
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Shares all over the map again today only to finish in the red for the second straight day but the stock is still up a whopping eighty three percent of this week and more than two thousand percents this year and taking a youtube last night to speak directly to the retail investors who feel the stocks big surge. Aaron defending the company's secondary offering urging shareholders to support plans issue twenty five million more shares. It was all going well and then this happened. Make sure that our long-term future is very bright and right now we don't have that tool and our disposal and right now we don't have ups. Aaron apparently panelists there speculation online. Running wild at this was not an accidental camera. Bump but an intentional message to tweak the short spending against him so it was just a giant accident. Pg rated stunts the greatest pr stunt that ever existed. Karen what do you say well given his string and how this is what string of. Yeah well. I thought he was saying tool right when it happened on seriously. I don't know. But i don't think it was a stunned but i feel like he has just one over most of his audience so thoroughly that anything he does. They just think is great. So that was that was interesting. I thought accident accent riding accident and was not wearing pants i think. Yeah that's a risky maneuver. I think not that he hasn't done some risky maneuvers. But yeah i'm going with accident. It hasn't ended well for a lot of other people who do calls and things like that with no pants tweaking. The shore was kind of an interesting thing to glean from this. I don't know. I would probably go with an accident as well. Really i just. I'm not wearing pants. A camera and it's so subaru so super aggressive but i guess i mean i could see it both ways. I wanna err on the side to give it the benefit of the doubt that it was an accident but the truth is you to your defense in your opinion. Everyone has something to put the camera on now or something to put the phone on now. So it's not just free riding on the on the desk. Let me just ask you think like they tried that five times. No let's do it again. We get the right shot okay. Let's try it again. I wouldn't be surprised if somebody was on the other side. That cameron purposely pink dipped over. Just like that to see what you over there. What do you say. Well i mean tool was the code word did knock the camera clearly so i know one in their right mind would do that as as as a plan. Pratfall with out pants on so for all you know. I'm not wearing pants right now. My camera over now guy. The context of this of course is at eighty percent of shareholders our retail investors. At this point he is he's pandering catering to whatever word you want to use to that shareholder base because shareholders at the end of the day. Whoever you are. They rule the company right. They should really so even if this were on purpose. That didn't this play right into what he needs to do. Right now to convince that shareholder base to say yes but delude us. Yeah i mean accident. Or i mean i would just say i was not an accident. I mean unknown zipping. Your fly when you leave. The men's room is an accident. Trust me. I know not wearing pants. Do something is absolutely unpurposeful ended. It's also pretty pathetic in my opinion. And i'm sure he's you know he's he is he's enjoying all of this and this is not a man. I mean this guy went to your amata went to harvard business school dope so i think he knows exactly what he's doing but i also think it's pathetic. I also say this. The last i looked. Amc and amc ex didn't have a lot to do with each other. Take a look at amc x. Today so if you don't think this whole thing is is just preposterous on a number of different levels up paying attention and look. I said this a hundred times on this show. I have the utmost respect for the wall. Street beds crowd the red crowd. I think these guys and gals are smarter than the people who are supposed to do this for living and they understand complexity and gamut all those things a lot better than people are supposed to know something about it with that set. I remember two thousand eight two thousand and nine at tweets back. Then we got hate mail saying i wish you guys and gals at warned us and here we are trying to do something again now. And you know these folks don't want to be warned which i totally get. We're not trying to protect you from yourselves. We're just trying to point out the just the the folly. That's behind all of this again. Just my opinion. Yeah i mean. I think is definitely a were that many people out there would use other people would say that it is doing what he needs to do. A ceo as ceo. He needs to raise money. He needs to sell a lot more shares. We talked to richard greenfield yesterday light. Shed partners who said that. They need to raise a whole lot more money in so doing what he needs to do to convince shareholders to issue those shares. Isn't that just that's not that's doing. What a ceo needs to do in the moment. I mean i don't know and where do you fall on that. I agree with you. I think that he needs well going back six months. He needed this. Save the ship you needed to prevent them from going under literally so now that that is that risk at the moment is off the table because he's rates raise cash and because his maturity are talked about in the video he doesn't really have any big maturity coming up for the next few years so he has time but it's not like the stock now is trading equity like an option value. It's tracy get a gigantic market vet pharma cab so to me. I think he's he's done everything right. I just can't. I know i come from fundamental free cash flow driven analysis and out of favor and can't even tell you so we look at when you look at fundamentals. Now what are the fundamentals the matter short interest and social velocity. So two guys point when you look at that. I totally agree but prices truth right. How many times this guy say that. How many times does the market say that price is truth so of prices truth. Then what we're looking at is truth. If you have the best short thesis in the world the market rallies you lose right. That was ten years ago. That was five years ago now so right now whether or not you agree with that. Amc is a good stock. Best in different. This is the new fundamental reality that we are
CNBC's Fast Money
"tim seymour" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Let's get to. Sarah is who has all the details just spoke with the ceo. Sarah hi melissa to see you lose. Business is still going strong. Despite reopening back to work back to jeans and dresses comfy leisure still in sales rising eighty eight percent in the quarter. The company also raised its forecast for full year sales store. Sales doubled showed that foot. Traffic returned in a big way and ecommerce continues to rise up fifty five percent for the quarter. That's the direct to consumer business. The company is expecting fifty five to sixty five percent growth in its moore business this year. That's the at home fitness work product and now says that it's adding it in ninety stores by the end of this month and two hundred by the end of the year despite questions about subscribers and growth has gyms reopen people work out together again so calvin mcdonald addressing. Some of those concerns at home. Fitness was a trend before the pandemic Obviously accelerated during the pandemic and we believe that will continue to remain important. Part of our guests us live the sweat life. Post the pandemic and we're to create a very meaningful business We see mirror. Have a a solid standalone. Pnl thins our community of relationships with our guests. Lula's talk a bit higher here after hours but it has lagged this year down more than eight percent plus and last year over the last twelve months down two percent after a multi year run. Investors are concerned. It was a pandemic play because it did so well over the last year but so far. Lulu is proving that it's got good exposure to store reopening as well mcdonald was especially optimistic about his stores reopening. Also he made the point. Melissa that unlike any other retailer that we're seeing now post huge com sales. This quarter mcdonald said that his two year compound annual growth rate a good way to measure returns as twenty five percent which he claims is higher than the rest of his peers. The stock is only up half a percent as the whole growth. Trade really gets rethink here. Sarah thank you. Sarah is in at the nyse. Tim seymour. go to you on lulu here. The move half a percent in the after hours session is it. Is it good that the stock is selling off or is it surprising to you that the is moving much higher based on what seemed like a good report. I think the stock. I sold twenty percent or so off these numbers. It twice up around three eighty three ninety to put it in fresher. And then you have a multiple. That's that's the pressure point here like the valuation Very rich but again. If you wanna see where they're going to settle into a post covid Consistent profile of a fifty five to sixty percent i think they will and the innovation here and the ability of this company to have pricing power. You heard them also on this earnings call. Gross margin improvement. A couple hundred basis points despite freight costs despite despite some of these dynamics around the port embargo tie ups there so look i think he's got a case. Where as an investor. You have to decide where you're willing to hold your nose in the multiple. You're almost doing the same thing with nike. And there's a lot of comparisons here with a much shorter track record for lulu. But i think you know. I'm not surprised to see stockholding in here if anything. It's tested the bottom end of rain. I think it's gonna move higher. I agree with tim. it's fascinating to me. That mirror product is perfect for tim seymour. If you think about it for a myriad of different and tim's not here to fight back and outside cool let me but you know what i'm saying to emma. I've missed i do miss you. I'll say this inventories were up seventeen percent career but guess what sales were up fifty six percent. You know what that means for next quarter my opinion that operating margins which were great. This quarter north of sixteen will be north of twenty percent. I think you can buy the soccer. i'm summarizes not hire. This is a disaster. So mel said the fact that it's only down half a percent given the guidance given the quarter. This chart is one of the worst looking charts in the entire. Stock market is down twenty percent from its all-time highs bathe in september. If it breaks here if it can't hold here it's going back to that february march loan near to seventy which was also the breakout level from last bay here so i listen good news bad price action guy down. What do you say to that. I don't see it as bad price action. But i'd love the fact that we're together and dance getting in my grill salty. Dan live nothing like it. It's thousand and fair enough. Karen did you make this quarter. I thought it was an excellent quarter. And i thought the guy was good. I thought i mean the mirror acquisition. I think they paid five hundred million dollars. I think we'll end up being a home run. Which is which is great. The problem is. Tim brought up right. It's it's it's double the market multiple double and it's priced for perfection. They've delivered perfection. That makes it fairly valued right here. So i don't own it anymore. It's it's really great company. But you know if a little bit of the post pandemic slows things down a little or even the perception is pronounced that okay there. They were pandemic stock. Then i think there's downside we've got a lot more ahead.
CNBC's Fast Money
Stocks End Lower Amid Decline in Tech Shares
"We start off with another tech wreck on wall. Street the nasdaq falling more than two percent. Today tesla facebook netflix apple. All dropping sharply and check out the iwan's wm small-cap etf losses accelerating into the close. It is now down six and a half percent this week alone. All this happening as yield actually fell today. So what do you make of all this guy you know. It's like you're my head. Because i was going to start with the russell russell's actually down nine percent since the all time high we made. I think on monday march fifteenth. And i'll tell you we do this. We do a call every day. At twelve. Thirty and tim seymour came out. I think the market was at the highest. They said there's something about this day. I don't particularly like and he turned out to be a bit of a soothsayer. And i'll say this this is one of those moby dick days when you just bookmark. A certain page will bookmark this one fellas and girls because a lot of really interesting things happen to vicks obviously rallied late russell. Down big you know you mentioned ticket and wacked with interest rates. Actually going lower. There are a lot of things not to like about today. And it's got me a little bit concerned now with that setup concern for awhile for today really weird field at all day to manifest itself late with the sell off
CNBC's Fast Money
Breaking Down the Busiest Day of Earnings, and Whats Next for the Markets
"Well the alphabet bouncing back in the third quarter among big tech. Of course, it has been the underperformed the pandemic. Now, seeing outperforming the after hours core advertising revenue returning to growth after its first revenue decline in more than two decade history that was last quarter key is what the company sees going forward. On this point they didn't really give us much CFO port telling me that they did see a broad recovery and advertising this past quarter, and that was in line with the economic recovery. But she said they're still uncertainty on the call. She said that there are signs that user behavior is beginning to return to normalize levels everything else guys was strong from Youtube revenue to play to cloud which revenue forty, five percent going forward. Co. Sender. said that they will further breakout cloud as a reporting segment so that investors can track aggressive investment and progress. Of course that reflects clouds growing importance to alphabets, overall business, and perhaps the competition their lost the guys I would just note that there have been at least two questions on the DOJ lawsuit and increased antitrust scrutiny which has been building around the world back over to Melissa Deidre. Thank you. Depot with alphabets results, Tim Seymour. This as Deirdre had mentioned had been the laggard going in among the big tech science for the year, a laggard versus its peers laggard, versus the Nasdaq are we setting up here for? Dairy. Say a Golden Age for alphabet. Well, the profitability I look at the the the massive beat here on the bottom line is very encouraging for Google shareholders who've been a little frustrated and yes. If I had to sum up earnings of the big four here, there's no question that the response to the share prices is is a function of really where these stocks have come from not come from. I I love the fact that Youtube is now five billion dollar business. I think that's going a lot higher the fact that the cloud is three point four billion to me breaking out, and if you look at all these separate businesses in addition to the core search Juggernaut, which is showing no signs of weakness at growth backup close to ten percent. So yes, Google is way too cheap at a time when the three other copies were. Talking about and even facebook which struggles on the low end evaluation scale have re rated and Google has not and Google really I think took a major step here, but it's about breaking it out too bad transparency and I think that's part of what we're getting there I mean the saying that it will from this point on breakout cloud gene seems to be a very good sign a sign of confidence in the growth of that business. It is I think it speaks to a bigger opportunity with the stock. We talk a lot about search. We talked a lot about cloud breaking out. Cloud is an indication. You know they WANNA get more at illuminating other parts of business, and of course, there are other beds. This is not above the fold and the. Today but I think any investor who is buying Google right now should pay close attention. They've got some gems in there. Other pets around longevity around the future transportation sensitive in flight, and so I think about this the numbers it's nice to see the swing back in the growth rate snap back to a normal level for Google, but I think it sets up A. Very. Simple. A narrative around Google, which is stable core business and other beds which could provide some upside of the multiple years to come Karen I, want I want your take on Alphabet I'm wondering if this confirms, we already believed about the company and its valuation or if this makes you feel like it deserves an even higher valuation than you. Thought Twenty four hours ago. Feel like Mike Pence. There was just a fly there I think that it does deserve a higher valuation remember Google has one of the biggest cash hoards ever and so we saw a little bit of by back here. I think about maybe about eight billion I'd like to see them do more but this is really a validation and remember Google has much more exposure to the travel business obviously travel. Is. This is not where you want to be right now, and so I think that they're going to continue to see improvement it should be higher. It's actually been surprisingly weak. So if I didn't own any, I would probably buy some even up. It's hard to buy something up this much but I would want to own it because this is an extraordinary business and there's a lot to like remember this. Is An. Evolution when Ruth pour out, got their sort of grown up and then she started to show broke up the two businesses. We started the at more clarity will get some more on cloud. So I really like this
CNBC's Fast Money
Wall Street Week Ahead: After monster rally, investors cautious as U.S. recovery wobbles
"We start with that monster rally on Wall Street today the SNP up more than one and a half percent and the Dow jumping over four hundred points. As you can see there, the Nasdaq also up nearly two percent leading those markets, higher energy stocks, financials, and the small caps as well. Investors appearing hopeful a new deal for stimulus is coming down the Pike but markets are still down significantly for the month does today's action give you a reason to perhaps be more optimistic and for that perhaps I I will turn to you first. dominated. Welcome. It's always wonderful to have you on board got a bonus hour with you. So that's fantastic and you know I think the answer. Your question is yes but you can't say that in a vacuum something we talked about over the last couple of weeks was you probably see a short term market bottom on a day the market sells off and the volatility index sells off with it and you actually saw that. Over a few days, NOP can speak to this vicks topped out around thirty six, and as the market was selling off, the VIX was selling off down to the twenty five and a half level that gave you a pretty good indication that maybe we were going to bottom. I mentioned that because one of the things we said now for a while off that low that we made a week and a half or two. Weeks ago the obvious move at this point was probably a moved back to the prior all time high of thirty, three, ninety, three that we made back in February and Steve can speak to this because now does that make sense for that reason it also makes sense because it would be a text book, fifty percent correction of the recent, all time high and the low. We made a couple of weeks ago. So the. Answer is yes. But let's see what happens when we get there and when I say when because I do think we're GONNA rally another forty or so snp handles. All right. So Steve, let's bring you in because guy teed it up for you. There is this level is this a market right now the action you've seen that makes you feel as though you're comfortable being long comfortable putting new money to work right now. So I know everyone wants to have that gut instinct of being positive on the overall market and this market has shown you nothing. But positively, because that gap tom is closing from the corona bottom to when we finally actually restart the economy. But you talked about a couple of levels, fifty percents I'm sorry, the fifty day moving average I heard you talking about today on air thirty, three, fifty, three. So we closed right around that level that's why people are keying in on that level where did we bounce from the hundred day moving average which was thirty, two tech? So this is technically A great set up to play it for a bounce. But the problem is we still have what the problem was. We have an overbought market granted. We work that awful just a little bit. But what has been the most overbought the tech space the most bloated names, those six or ten names that we all focus on. Doesn't mean that. Have not. Rally doesn't mean that other sectors have doubt rally. But it's time to take a pause because the market and the economy or two totally different things. A lot of volatility going forward the biggest thing for me dumb month end quarter in this week. So I heard. I heard it was mentioned prior to us on closing bell I still think it's a big deal I. still think people were under weight energy. We had emanate today I still think people are underweight financials. We saw those rally today what sold off what rallied into month and I think that's what you have to keep an eye on. Let's see if it lasts a week or so Tim Seymour over the last week over the last five days of looking at our screens here it says that the big one of the bigger cloud computing. Is Up over three percent semiconductors that particular ETF the ticker SMH look at a lot is up over three percent right now for five trading days, we also saw financials and energy to Steve's point lead the rally today. So those are two different parts of the market both assuming some kind of leadership role does that then mean that there is this kind of all clear signal, the bad and the good are going up at the same time. Downgrade having you getting me to say you've got an all clear signal is something that's tough to do But I I hear where you are, and if you look at the triple cues and the Nasdaq one hundred, you've rallied almost six percent over three sessions. The semi's which they have multiple times over the last couple of years and certainly coming out of the worst dacoven to have have certainly been a leader and something to follow it. In fact, they've they've kind of lead the way. So both of these are now back over the fifty Todd Gordon will be your to talk some. Of the technicals and a bit, but you're talking about the broadening of the market and to the extent that maybe you're excited today about the move in retail and in small caps and along with that with the banks, and if you look at the European banks were up over three and a half percent. So these are the parts of the mark that I think people wanna see the good news for all investors. So back to at least where you've had an all clear and where I don't think anything has changed is the guys who talked about some oversold conditions I have to do that I. Think. The Nasdaq can contract can correct further down and I I mentioned kind of those late June early July levels but the Fed is still very much your I think the payroll numbers this weaker are going to give you some sense of where the labor market certainly is going to need a lot more fiscal health than just with monetary policy is but I think you've got a case where you've at least seen parts of the economy. Especially, the transports give you a lot of reason for confidence in terms of leadership and they lead you on the way down from two thousand, eighteen to. Twenty thousand nine hundred and transports have been outperforming the market for the last almost four months now. So many key bellwether esque type parts of the market that we're watching right now. So I'M GONNA turn now to Pete and Jerry, and I know that you're on the news line with us right now at CNBC let's talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of trading action there is there something that makes you feel as though this is a constructive environment or are we do for a little bit more consolidation perhaps even some more discount pricing in the coming weeks ahead of the election. Well I certainly could see the consolidation side of it. Tom. This. Also though in the derivatives world where I live I gotTA. Tell you something a lot of bullish activity over recent weeks and and it just continues to come come in now A. Lotta that short term today we are seeing a little bit longer term type offer. Options that we were seeing whether we're buying in major indices. So I'm not even just talking specific names or whatever. I'm just talking about indifferent indices across the board we're seeing some buying. So it felt like a bullish tone potentially, but not as much short-term as we had been seeing that makes it a little bit more interesting because it's very easy to sit there in the very short term in. This movement that we are seeing but to commit to buy those kind of premiums that you've got to to be able to go out to January and December that says a lot more about what the what, what they really are feeling those very large buyers out there in the marketplace. So volatility guy brought this up and I just have to address this real quick volatility was selling off all day. It was doing early then it started to sell off. We actually nearly closed on the absolute lows of the session, which was pretty interesting to see how that volatility index was coming down as market came down from being up five hundred down to four hundred yourself. A lot of different things going on right now. But certainly, there are sectors that I'm impressed with the do lead us a little bit. More so out where we have been recently light transports like material and a few other names I like seeing what we thought financial today. But that's one day. We haven't been able to see financial foot back to back to back days together for a very long period of time. So that nothing I think we got to watch very very closely. All
CNBC's Fast Money
Walmart’s stock rises 7% on report of Amazon Prime competitor coming this month
"Check shares of Walmart surging today and reports at the retail giant is about to launch its Amazon prime competitor Walmart plus recode reporting subscription service will launch a ninety eight bucks a year offer same day delivery of groceries and other products and set to go live later this month on Karen. This would be huge and I wonder if this would be. Competition for Amazon or maybe some other retailers big box retailers. I think this is competition for Amazon, and I think Walmart has sort of leading the grocery business, so I really good for them for trying to capitalize on what they've been able to do during the coronavirus shutdown and I think. They've done a really good job. Getting that online business going and I think to really be aggressive here make sense as a target shareholder. It actually has me thinking about you know what maybe I would rather be in Walmart now instead of target. It's a little bit more expensive, but I want to give them the benefit of the doubt for what they've been able to do I. Wonder if finally that Walmart Amazon Enormous enormous P. E. multiple divergence might start to narrow just the tiniest bit, but I think for target. Maybe this is another same day competitor beside Amazon. So might target need to do the same thing, and might that be expensive for them so I think that at the premium that Walmart is to target It's worth it to trade into Walmart here all right. Let's get more about this potential subscription service and what? What it could mean for Walmart joining US Oppenheimer's refresh, Parikh refresh great to have you with us on. How how do you view this kind of service? When it comes to Walmart, I mean if you take a look at Amazon's business for instance, this is a margin business. There are lots of costs involved in terms of the infrastructure to do all these sorts of deliveries, especially to our deliveries with this be a. Positive for Walmart. Yeah, so I. DO think it a deposit, so they look at this offer anything it's for for Walmart's both defensive and offensive move so clearly on the defensive. Amazon rolled out free two hour delivery lay last year to all their prime members. I think with this offering now. Walmart can better compete with Amazon, because they can also offer that free delivery, and then I think in the offensive front now having same-day delivery similar to a counter thing, I think other players such as target I think. Walmart can take from them, and you know on the grocery side. If you look at your pure conventional Grocer Kroger, they don't offer free delivery currently. I think this is also played. Garner more here in the grocery category according to this report from recovery, Pash another offering that will be part of the subscription video entertainment. It sounds like they could be going down. This rabbit hole potential spending and I'm wondering if this may be satisfies, no category of shareholder. Maybe you lose the value shareholder. Who might be in Walmart, the steady. Steady earnings and dependable. Performance and you don't satisfy the growth investors who are looking for something like an Amazon. Years. I think that that for the offering is still very unclear I. Think Walmart is more likely to partner with someone on the video side versus invest billions of dollars in creating their own video service, I would expect their partnership and some type of asset light type arrangement still unclear how they're going to go about doing it so I think that's really gonNA. Be Down the road I think I. Look the launch. The offering discounts and overtime allow these type of for to make it more attractive. Tim Seymour. Thanks for joining us what what multiple because we talk about Walmart Dot Com, and if I think about. The ability to move more of their business to e commerce. We've seen in Kobe. They have a richer online. Mix some of these food trends where they compete on price. They're only getting better, but it's the DOT com multiple. What do I do with it? Yeah, so from multiple perspective you know Walmart is trading at an all time peak valuation mid twenties on on a P. Basis. We think this this is a hit and you start to get more subscription type revenue. He actually start to gain. You know more secure customers in the market. I think then believe that they're more likely. Likely to gain a greater share of their customers, wallet I think he could further multiple expansion from here, so it's really interesting. Walmart's I mean you look at the stock is trading at the same level as trading in late March and you know since then the market has changed some of the Higher Beta names and Walmart is really been left behind even after this rally so I think at these levels. You really not paying for this for incremental offering and I think from here as investors look for defense, I think I, think you will see money start flowing back into Walmart shares.
CNBC's Fast Money
Financials broke a record for the first time since 2007
"You're flagging big move for the financial. Yeah so for the first time since the crisis assists actually since two thousand seven X has hit a new high so it's taken almost twelve years to get all the way back up here and one of the things interesting is a a lot of people. Want to buy a breakout. And there's nothing wrong with that but if you look at where the yield curve was when the financials atip topped out back in two thousand seven two thousand eight it was as flat as it is right now and as the yield curve restrained the financials actually sold off. So don't be fooled by financials breaking out out and saying hey wait. A second of the yield curve Stevens again. They're going to do really well if you look back at history. They don't tend to do well. And actually it's because when that re steepening in comes that's when you get the potential for a recession so I think that's a real good point. I would make a point though that when the the banks actually when the yield curve inverted back in two thousand seven entity there you actually saw two thousand six to two thousand and seven you saw that the banks actually outperform during that period which was a prelude to a terrible run. I'm not suggesting that now. I think what what makes now an interesting time for banks is that banks are back to where they were pre crisis in terms of capital distribution so in terms of dividends in terms of their ability to do buybacks. Remember those that last round of stress tests even. JP Morgan almost tried to fail that test because they wanted to be as aggressive as possible. That's what's bringing back. I think big institutions into the sector. Because they can then pay proper I think you you look at the run that we've seen in these banks. It was tax cuts and deregulation. I think that's run. Its course we're not going to see any more of that. And to your point that was picture-perfect today. They capped out exactly the same spot where they did back. Then so I do believe you have to have a perfect world setup and these returns have been great this year. I don't know if they could replicate these returns going forward though. Yeah I would. Just be cautious. I mean it doesn't mean you sell short doesn't mean we're going to have a banking crisis. I just want a lot of people. We'll see something break out from ten twelve year highs. They tend to want to buy that in this case I would use some caution. I don't I don't want to sort of beat the same drum Tim Seymour. But this report move we got one hundred fifty billion coming in on December thirty first one hundred and fifty billion more coming in on January second three hundred billion dollars being put in the overnight repo market. I know it's Wonky guys but this is a big story. Some people think it's nothing some people think it's a lot. Where do you stay? I think it's a lot and I think we talked about this on the this show. In the last couple of days we talked about this yesterday I think you have a case where this type of liquidities two things one is it's actually flooded liquidity to the market. It's also pushed down volatility. Push these people into the market. This is a risk remember because the minute the Fed starts unwind this. They tried to tell you this was not this was not acute. QE again it was stealth QE and it's real and it's been important for the Equity Market
CNBC's Fast Money
Renault looks for new partners, third-quarter revenue falls
"From the Nasdaq market site overlooking New York City's Times Square this is fast money I'm Melissa leak are traders on the Tim Seymour Karen Finer than guys johnny we're also joined against night by Markelle presidents have strategic wealth partners the busiest day of the earning season is officially in the books and there are a ton of after movers these in tally at all on our radar tonight while the very latest from each on their quarters but we begin with these stock to walk from the after hours that would be Amazon the tech giant falling hard after forty earnings miss we've got fourteen covered standing by to break down the results fast hunting gene monsters getting ready to fire up the old red phone in Minneapolis we kick things off with Warren Amazon's big conflict in his life for us in San Francisco Josh so Melissa besides the bottom top I've seen investors going to concentrate on this Q. Four guidance it is light calm between eighty six point five billion this shoot was eighty seven point four billion obviously for investors that's critical right cue for holiday quarter I did just have a call with Amazon let's see if O'Brien immediate call there are some one time items he did mention what you're going to weigh on on Q. Four just for example he mentioned a consumption tax kicking in Japan went from eight to ten percent that created some pre buying in his words in September that will have a net negative impact in Q. Four but the central question for investors is going to be the bottom line guys that was well below with the street was looking for on that call field a lot of questions about that is it all one shipping and he made it clear they are investment mode they do believe that's where they need to be there's a lot of cost in the short run he clearly believes that's where Emma Zahn needs to be and he says there's the evidence that it's paying off very good increase he said and purchase behavior from prime members thereby more products more often but obviously weighing on the bottom line. Aws I talked about that too with Mr softy listen it came in growth rate thirty five percent that was a sequential tick down nine billion that's a lighter than what the it was looking for guys at Baird I know we're looking around nine point one billion I did question about those some growth rates he says bottom line they're happy with the progress it's on a thirty six billion dollar run rate up nine billion year over year aws's says leads the industry and features in products not worried he seemed to indicate about these fluctuations quarter quarter Melissa back to you all right josh thank you we'll check back in with you with any other developments here let's try Amazon urine obviously going into this quarter expenses were the primary concern as always Amazon operating expenses grew faster than sales growth which I think people anticipated obviously not as much because the stock is down significantly in the after hours but if you look at it it's not it's not disaster that I think people want to portray yes I mean the growth rate in aws slowdown sodas or yesterday it's still pretty significant thirty six percent growth rate revenue guide absolutely disappointing but now you have to ask yourself everybody's dying to get in this thing a few months ago one of the levels tell you well I'll tell you exactly what to tell you. The recently was about thirteen sixty five give or take we made a recent high of twenty thirty five hundred a month and a half two months ago the level that we're at basically right now in the after ours is a fifty percent retracement of that entire move those double tops we've talked about forever have held up but now you're looking to play offense and Amazon instead the defense in my opinion if you're selling here you're trading wrong if you're dying to get into the stock a month ago would you have been dying to get into it knowing that the holiday quarter would have fallen short short of forecasts. Here's I'll take a different spin on what guy says but my glasses have full to Amazon historically the implied volume this thing we'd had it down mm percent I actually think this is a victory I actually think they've they've begun to smooth out their business aws while not growing where it is is clearly along with Microsoft these guys are head and shoulders google a distant third in my view are taking cloud of which we're less than ten percent of enterprise conversion onto the cloud I think it's very good news for them yeah I know that Prime Shipping Q. Four costs are going to be double what we're in the second quarter and if you look at fulfillment costs overall that's really hurting the margin so Amazon which meant a lot of money three four eight years ago into their logistics AARP warehousing and suddenly one day gave them the ability to turn it up a notch is doing the same thing that doesn't concern me as shameful and I have to tell you I do think this is an environment where you wanna be looking for opportunities to add Amazon because there's nothing about what they've told me today that signals is a structural problem with the company. Yeah I agree with that I mean obviously spend spend spend right they can afford to do it so you
CNBC's Fast Money
Market update
"This is this fast money. I'm Melissa Leo Traders on the Desk Tim Seymour Karen Feinerman Johnathan and guide Dommie just breaking a little while ago Oracle. CEO Mark Her taking a leave of absence due to health related reasons since the stock selling off after hours. Conference call expected within the hour. We'll keep you updated as the story develops then if you didn't know SAS. SAS stands for software off whereas service but it could soon stan for software as a source of pain down nineteen percents these scales Hong Kong stock exchange launches an aggressive thirty seven billion dollars bid for it wait for a London stock exchange. We'll get perspective from one of their biggest rivals. CME group chairman and CEO Terry Duffy joins US exclusively here here on set but I it's still on and we are talking about the great rotation so many here on this desk. I've been skeptical of maybe even Poo pooing at times the sector showing continuing strength the Russell banks retail just to name a few so what is going to make you a believer guy. It's a fascinating question. Market has an uncanny way not that I need help by the way of making me look extraordinarily silly and here we are as as we just heard within a percent suddenly all time high the S. and P. Five hundred and everything looks fantastic. When do I become a believer I. I don't know the answer that question but I'll say is the headwinds that exist in a couple of weeks ago looked really haven't gone away all that much. Yes rates have backed up a little bit. Probably a healthy move yes to go. Market is an exploding to the upside. Maybe maybe some of the concerns with the China deal situation of Hong Kong have abated but they haven't gone away. There's still there. The markets is looking pass them so I don't know how to answer that question because it concerns since I have. I don't think it get resolved in one day. Well I know how to answer the question like when the rest of believers simple when the rest of Maga- makes the new high and apple is on its way to doing that. It's about ten bucks from the all time highs last September. I'd love to see Google Amazon participate again. Those are three and a half trillion dollars. Dollars of mega cap the largest in the market the other one. You know you mentioned the Russell. I'd like to see the Russell breakout above the seven month range and really kind of get people thinking about okay well. Maybe small caps have digested a lot of the bad news in the ready to go a little bit so those are two areas. I want to focus on. I'm not so interested in seeing Alcoa rally twenty percent off. Its you know that doesn't really convey about too much yet. Karen you know I I love to buy when things are trading down into gers. I'm kind of more more inclined to sell. Some things are trading up and injures less. I talked about taking a little money off table selling by Selig's. JP Morgan calls I I why do on something like a united rental that has obviously participated to the downside heart and back to the upside hard. I still think it's attractive here name like Fedex that Tim and I talked about a lot. That's unknown news. Whatsoever is gone for line one forty nine to whatever one seventy one. I liked it higher than one seventy one so even though that one's up a lot. I'll hang onto things like that the vix today coming in a lot. I want to own volatility here because I think we are one tweet away from going back to those markets you you seem so fresh in my mind they could be any second week could be the Mcginn Tim even sort of on board the rotation since it. You pointed it out to sort of I don't WanNa say a believer Uber but you acknowledge. Its its presence here. Why don't you try to die down your gender. Your Rangers Rangers compatriot here well. He's missed. I've moved from three twenty five down to one forty five on the ten year in effectively six months. Maybe seven months was was was way way too. Excessive relative to the fundamentals in the US economy maybe not to the global economy and I continue to think that some of this rated namic was a function of buns pulling us down in a relative value trait. I think some small and this is not full. Reconciliation and Hong Kong has been important to set the tone tone for at least we're regionally. There's a little more stability going into October talks. Which I think are very important. Unfortunately I'm not sure what we're going to get out of that but then we had reaffirmation of the US S. consumer off a couple of data points and that's the ice and the services I assume which is really the backbone of our country not a manufacturing reading and so while we know the PM is going down down around the world. I think that's been part of the story. The most important from a market perspective is I think we've had these rotations many times in many cycles throughout the last last two years so it's easy to pooh-poohed at the market almost nothing but I actually think you know if if you look at where retail is retail underperform the S. and P. almost twenty percent for a year until suddenly it it makes a lot of that back up recently if you look at what's going on and transports and banks but the thing about it is that the valuations to me do make some sense and we sat around here and we talked talked about food stocks. We talked about restaurant stocks. We talked about things that really were tough to explain and I think the markets rationalization is that those things can only go so high and recession question is off the table for the next six months. That's where the central bank at your back. That's been the justification and it didn't happen three days ago. This happened three weeks ago. When when the rest of the world started rallying relative to our market. Thanks for educating us but do you think that was particularly bullish. When you're the president of the United States vote head Fed should go to lower grades two zero arowar negatively lower because to me that doesn't elicit a whole heck of a lot of confidence in this economy. Is Picking up because you saw good services number less so you're talking about psychology. Do you want one. I'm in an AP economics class again. I think we've got a case where the macro data doesn't add up to a market that should be falling off a cliff with soot and you just mentioned that the last two years the market hasn't done much because you said that you've acknowledged the fact that we've seen lots of rotation so you know the thing is here. We are three thousand the S&P eighty five hundred and we'll make a new high. Do you think we're going straight up. Do you think we're GONNA go to thirty thirty and then go straight up. Five seven eight percent not particularly weekly likely if you look at over the last two years when we made new incremental high. We've gone down a lot. I mean I don't think I don't think most of our audiences is making a call on the market out so and so I think people are investing in stocks. They are themselves rotating in and out the fact that the semi's which I think are again been an easy target of volatility and the volatility in that space has been enormous but semi's are to make another fresh high and semi's are still up almost now they make that fresh high. They'll be nine percent from June of two thousand eighteen when everyone everyone said that's it that's it. I'll take ten percent and I'll take ten percent of the time. We don't really ten percent to thirty percent drawdowns. I mean does that. Make aren't trading those drawdown. I look I understand those people another individual again. I understand statistics and I understand standard deviations and we are split up to tell me that that people should not have been investing in things that overall business you. Are you saying that because they went up a lot and they went down a lot. They were on investable during this period and I think most people aren't trading like that. What's the flip side to not believing in this rotation. What's it's the flipside to necessarily know if you don't believe that this rotation is for real. What did the market do the have. I've been training opportunities listen. I'm the first to tell you I mean I thought the market's going down for quite some time I don't hide from it but within the context of that we brought up some pretty good training opportunities we as a matter Arafat couple of weeks ago. We power pitched bank at a time when nobody likes you did if you recall that was pretty much universally th you know pooh-poohed you use that word but not me by the viewing audience and that's gone from six to one and a half. I think closes sixty nine today so within the context of being a non believer there are trading opportunities again by only the point is everything that got us down to where we were a month and a half two months ago have not gone away. It's gotten a little bit clearer but they haven't gone away and I think in a fifteen fixed accounts point. It's just too it doesn't make sense with the backdrop that that's out there right now all right well. Our next guest says the value rotation can continue and new highs are coming with it. Let's bringing Margaret Kalonovik global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy at J.P Morgan market's always great to see you so you have a bunch of skeptics on the dust in terms of this rotation so so what has to answer guys original question what has changed to make you believe that this value rotation is here. We'll first positioning is extremely low so if you look at the sort of hedge from equity exposure it's about zero percentile so close to all time lows match in two thousand eight. If you look at the individual investors a I will be our sentiment is basically similar to two two thousand eight so a lot of these early price in the market right like and positioning is very low then generally. There's upside. That's pure mechanics. This is not even a economics one to one so so so so that's that's something that we can sort of hold onto low positioning and then you had some positive things within mentioned already. You know so you have a services in us. You had a little bit on Brexit a little bit on a little bit on Hong Kong Essay are and then you had this October negotiations so if we we have like two to three weeks before October where we still have a buyback full force when the Biggs declined from twenty two to fourteen fifteen so all the sort of systematic folks who actually really ever and you have discretion investor who's basically zeroed invested in the market so that's what we think you can continue now why valutation can continue so people adds to market the first thing they will close the short while net positioning get zero percent but the gross positioning gross exposure according to JP Morgan prime is ninety nine percent out so you have like a massive longshore trade where people are super long low vault of quality momentum and growth and they're super short value so if they want to increase the increase the net exporter. I don't think they're going to triple quadruple on software and stuff like that. They'll close some of the energy oil than gas some of the some of the banks and other value stuff so we think that this can continue okay so it can continue in our view until October in October. Basically you have negotiations anything. Anything can happen right so if the negotiations blow up we go back. Even negotiations actually produce some results. I think this loss for a full year like in two thousand sixteen and Seventeen when when it lost more than eighteen months so that's very strategic trade so strategic is until October right and in October. I think we need to reassess. If there is actually progress towards its radio this can can be new two thousand seventeen eighty two thousand two thousand sixteen age seventy two kinloss another eighteen months if the if we have more of the same back you know back and forth tweeting and stuff like that then we go back to software guy thinks will when when you say we go back if there are stumbling blocks oxen trade does that mean that we re-test the ten year yield lows like legal retail would have on
CNBC's Fast Money
Latest from the Stock Market
"I'm Melissa Leo Best Carter Worth Tim Seymour's Karen fighter men and guide dominated Tommy. The countdown is on its apple's big event tomorrow. Will it be enough to convince enthusiasts the world over to trade up in the middle of trade war also ahead activists investor. Elliott management taking a three billion dollar stake in at and T. A. Saying ix nay on the bank they see a sixty percents upside potential traitors take a second look and Boeing pausing using stress tests on its new triple. Seven after issue is discovered. We've got the details ahead. We begin with the Big Bang breakout on the day. The S. and P. Five hundred ended in the red checkout. He's he's moves from City Bank. America Wells Fargo David Morgan all firmly in the green for wait a minute. It was just a few days ago. The racer plunging yield curves inverting cats and dogs living together together and now look so the banks turned a big corner guy this desk by the way cats and dogs living together guy who's not sorry sorry who had a cat or a dog. I guess well how good question to answer on TV well. Let's go to the marketplace Sultana think they've turned the corner at all but what happened is everything got a little ahead of itself and it's not like we haven't talked about this. We're not saying this in a vacuum. Go back Tuesday. I think before Memorial Day we actually power-pitch some of the banks specifically it was city saying that you know what boring markets slow week into a holiday markets probably GONNA rally the toto's probably gotten and ahead of itself when city trades that discount to tangible book historically over the last couple of years. It's been a buy and that's pretty much what's happening. I mean I don't think again. The landscape has gotten better for the banks. Necessarily just the trading landscape in the short term has so the city have more room yeah probably overshoot seventy two like it undershot to sixty one but I think the the headwinds that they faced still exists today are some rays of sunshine based on what the CFO told the Barclay Financial Services Conference today that they expect growth in the back. AH The year that there are other parts of the business that can offset some of the losses or the softness in sort of the rate sensitive businesses so can you sort of extrapolate that some of the other brings thinking. Maybe things aren't as bad as people thought yeah I think I think that what the price they were trading at before. Two days ago really reflected a lot of things so I don't think I more that a lot of bed extra too much penalties there. I think if you think about where Citibank was trading you know well under ten times earnings a three percent yield. JP Morgan tend to change times earning a three and a half percent yield Bank of America under ten times earnings. I mean that's a lot about news priced in and their business models aren't all interest income right. There's a lot of other income in there as well so I think you know the market just saying Oh the whole book of Big Money Center banks is a giant two year tenure spread it must be going to zero didn't make sense. I'm not selling them here. I think they're still attracted. I'll actually question because we've had one kind of from a market position. Technicals Protective Talk and fundamentals. I'll talk to you the context of the overall market this this could you could make a comparison to the first quarter twenty sixteen when we're worried about global growth and banks essentially got through this period where once we got the sense that recession was off the table banks want on argue a very historic run for them relative to at least the cycle. Citibank's up thirteen percent eight days. It's up close to sixteen percent in sixteen days if you look at the X. L. F. It's basically kept pace with the SNP. Despite all of the things things that have happened to bank so the most important thing that happened today and I hate hyperbole may but I will tell you I think this is one of the most extraordinary trading days of the year that no one's talking about impressive was flat and yet you had banks three percent. You had expertise three and a half percent. You would transfer this is a major day for the march is not about the banks banks right. It's a behavioral thing. Is You look at the one hundred. What was the best performing stock the more beaten down. You were the better your slumber J. Lead. You Got Simon Property. You've got things like I mean in hindsight which is literally down eighty percent. Ge in the top ten so it's it's not a bank story although it is that's part of the story because they matter the most. It's simply dead. Cat bounces and dead cats do bounds but do they really come to life. No they're still dead heartbeat. It was more about deflation isn't as bad as you thought. I'm not going to tell you that deflation because I believe it's there's some stuff as leftover from the crisis but but deflation as it was exemplified and illustrated through bond yields around the world through gold going through the roof through everything else that was related to acid replacing going through the floor. The rally today are asset based their reflationary based and that's very exciting sites the retail these are retails that won't exist at some point in three five seven whether it's an urban outfitters. Tayo Ay and it's again it's it's it wasn't specific the banks the fact that it was craft. Ge tells you it was just an unwinding. If there's two sides here on this side of the desk extraordinary training day or just dead cats that's bouncing to make extraordinary trading day in terms of the move in yield terms everything he pointed out was extraordinary the context of what we've seen but I tend to sort of I I well. It should come as no surprise ten more with Carter Worth. I do think these are bounces within the framework of things that have just been oversold. I mean you mentioned Simon Properties. These go back and look where it bottomed out in April. Two Thousand Eighteen look where recently bought them at so you can understand the bounce slumber. J. has been left for dead. I mean we've talked about it. Seemingly for a year and a half trying at least I have tried to ascertain when the bottom would be unsuccessfully. We've seen moves like this before. This will be so again. I guess the fact that the SNP when he was unchanged today bowls could say what that someone constructive bears could say it should have been up twenty five handles on a day like today the other flipside of what happened today was growth oath at any price which had been where everyone wanted to go no matter what terrible complete reversal names like crowd strike or zoom right just absolutely getting annihilated highlighted today so you're just a rotation is just everything that didn't work now pile into that everything that did work time to bail but the question is exactly. I can't can't be in a crowd strikers in there too expensive. They're expensive. Yes two days ago even down ten percent too expensive for me. I think would momentum goes out. Those kind of names have were down to maybe more it's not. It's not terribly surprising that a crowd strike in company and their ilk are going down. Maybe on a daily today or just not rallying as much what's been interesting. Is that Koogle Amazon anything. That's been defensive relative momentum but actually you know they. They tend to be low momentum. Stocks in in difficult times in the market are under performing to Carter cares rights talk about. I don't know anything changed slumber J. in the last week in fact I think lenders as got some tough times ahead of them but when I look at some of the other parts of the market including the transports that are very real companies that are not going out of business that I don't think they're dead. Cat bounces. I'm not saying the world has gotten better in two days. I'm I'm telling you that it's always about positioning. It's always about where I think. The market momentum is we've got an ECB meeting coming up in a few days it's also going to I think help tell the tale of work. Global yields yields go because I think that the European Union is the one that was dragging global yields down and we know that the machines momentum is on both sides momentum down or some momentum up in if I go and when it flips. It's the you get these levers going on both sides but it doesn't usually last that long. At what point do you think I mean. Would you would take a lot of time and a lot more of this kind of thing. Because we saw the bouncing we saw in the certainly bouncing today. You just need in a lot more than I I agree cars. I don't think anything can you can't say suddenly it's it's all good for all these things that have underperformed for long time but for the last three weeks we've seen the DAX ax outperforming the machine emerging markets outperformed so This isn't a one day phenomenon today. It was a bit of an exclamation point on things that really suffer from deflation all right her neck. Scott says you may WanNa pump the brakes on the banks especially ahead of next week's. Fed Meeting joining us now. Steve chaperone equity strategists portfolio manager at Federated Investors Steve Great Great to see you again. so is it just the banks or is it all of these sectors that were dead cats bouncing Carter. I don't know if I'd do as far as the dead cat I. I'm somewhere in between I think Carter and Tim here and what I mean by that is it's very enticing when you look at the move in the banks today and you put it in the overall context then that context has rate rates bottom two weeks you go and have moved higher. The city surprise index bounced into positive territory week ago and value in general has moved up so there's an inclination to want US okay this is. This is the move in the value cyclicals that we've been waiting for. I think you need a little bit of confirmation on that. I think you need see what the Fed does in a week. I think they need to deliver against market expectations I think. ECB similarly has to at least provide some some delivering. I think this meeting is not as important as the one that comes in November when Christine lagarde takes over but move the ball forward and then I think you need the data that continue to come in strongly. If what we're talking about is a global reflation trade because the stimulus that's been put in the system helps the economy to move in the in the back half of the year. That's incredibly bullish and so I'm enticed by it but I'm not willing to kind of jump all in on it just yet so how are you. How are you positioned in the market right now. It sounds like like your you want to see how the data plays out. It sounds like you think I mean the federal probably cut twenty-five deliver on something that's sort of in the expected realm the the data is a little bit of a question mark at this point. So what do you do you think about the market right now is really a battle between the P and the right the P. should be higher. We've taken the discount outrage for stocks and we've cut it in half the only reason why the market isn't higher is because the market's concerned about recession and so they're worried about that e part so I think what it really comes comes down to is how our earnings gonNA come through and that's why trade matters. That's why Hong Kong brexit matters our view. Is that our base case. Scenarios earnings are going to be okay. They're going to be flat right to slightly up. You're going to get a revaluation higher because of those lower yields and that's where you play out over the next six to twelve months however over the course of the next month or so. I WANNA WANNA see how that goes. I want to see how the Fed goes. I WANNA see how earning season so when we were here earlier in the year we were eight percent overweight.