2 Episode results for "Thomas Maier"

Daily Briefing - June 8, 2020

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

20:57 min | 11 months ago

Daily Briefing - June 8, 2020

"Hi I'm row, PAL CO founder and CEO Vision. Thank. You so much for listening to the revision focused. At religion, we pride ourselves on providing the very best in-depth expert analysis available to help you understand the complex world of finance business and the global economy. If you'd like what you hear I set my invitation to try real vision membership for thirty days for just one dollar. Visit Real Vision podcast. Dot Com today. And join us as we navigate the financial world together, cheers! It's Monday, June eighth twenty twenty, just after market close in New York. This is the real vision daily briefing. I matched Bennington in new. York joined shortly by Ed Harrison from Washington DC, but first here's Jack. Farley with the store is driving markets. US! Equities continue to March upwards in dissent. The won't seem to end the S. and P.. Five hundred is now within one percent of where it began year in January and shockingly every single stock in the index is up since the lows on March twenty third every single one, but stocks aren't the only way investors are betting on a v-shaped recovery Morgan. Stanley announced in a note on Friday wager on a significant steepening of the yield curve, the reported a correlation between the plot and a thirty year one month spread, noting that yields tend to compress as the. The target rate goes lower, so it's essentially an anti T. it'll be interesting to see had his out going forward, speaking of bonds spread between German boons, and the sovereign bonds of Italy Spain and Greece have narrowed significantly in light of the European, Central Bank's announcement, a sustained stimulus while ECB's generous benefits package has tempered the bond markets of southern Europe it's provoked fears in the north of inflation and moral hazard, several prominent German economists have come out denouncing the package arguing that ECB president Christine Lagarde is a huge risk by doubling down on stimulus while the money. Money supply is at the highest point. It's been since the launch of the euro. Don't you think former chief economist Thomas Maier argued that Europe is headed for a constitutional crisis because the ECB quote has no legal or democratic mandate for what it's doing. And Meyer is by no means the only critic. There's also Otmar issing former ECB. Chief Economist who added his critique as well as Professor Richard. Werner added to these worries about inflation, our concerns about moral hazard, a disproportionate amount of stimulus would be allocated to Spain in Italy which are heavily indebted nations within the. The euro zone, so there's a worry that this bailout package would incentivize fiscal productivity, so the Hawks have their talents out, but the dubs definitely have some arguments in their arsenal with CPI in the euro-zone, just at zero point, one percent having declined for four straight months and forecasted growth within the euro zone, seemingly apocalyptic with the Bank of Spain, having forecast to GDP for Q to contract a stunning twenty one point, eight percent, and even Germany output slumped seventeen point nine percent for April, so it'll be interesting to see whether these tensions resolve or exacerbate going forward. And with that, let's go back to ash and Ed Ed Harrison back from vacation in in your rightful seat on a Monday afternoon. Welcome back Ed. Feeling refreshed us. Thank you. Must Be Nice. Yeah, it's good. It was good to have a few days off sure. So add lots happening as always as the case for months. What are you looking at today? I'm looking at actually you know. I was looking at some of the things that we were talking about a month and a half ago, I was looking at and will vision daily briefing that we did in late April. I I don't know if people remember that, but it was one where I talked about. The reopening main really bullish, and I was talking about Europe in particular, not the US, because we didn't know that the US was going to reopen and I was saying that. Over the short term that the reopening his bullish, and it would be bullish and the way that I remember it and I was looking to the comment. It definitely wasn't well received the comment that the reopening would actually be a bullish on a short term basis, but I think that that's actually been the case that the reopening has been bullish on a short term basis that I think we should look back to that to get an understanding of you know what I was saying in terms of. Positive data points, and what that means now that we've had this reopen and we've had this bullet data. With that ED before we jump into it, let's take a look at. What's happened here? Market closed so snp up to thirty to thirty two up one point, two percent today, and the Nasdaq at ninety, nine, twenty four hadn't close to the ten thousand Barca up one point one three percent on the day Russell two thousand on a percentage basis the largest mover. Fifteen thirty five level closed up one point eight six percent today, obviously positive sentiment. Yes, and you know for me. The reason that I'm thinking about it is because I wrote opposing credit writedowns, which is exactly the opposite of the Post that I wrote at that particular time, which is the genesis of why were were I was talking about the April twenty-seventh? Religion daily briefing and what I was saying is that okay? April twenty-seventh is was not as bearish in terms of the tone as March, the twenty second, which is the you know, the day before the Fed intervened into the markets, but it was relatively bearish in terms of market sentiment, and what I was saying is, is that actually now? We're GONNA have a transition to market sentiment going forward because the reopen going to be a positive for sentiment, and that's what we've seen. Seen but for me. The sentiment has gone to the point where it's definitely over the top I think that we've seen a lot of both in terms of oil price as well as Equity Prize, a reflation trade that Morgan Stanley to me. In terms of their fixed income trade really nails in terms of why I think it's gone over the top. Let me see. I can find what the Morgan Stanley said. They said in the blink of an eye this it. It seems that seems just about how quickly the economic narrative has tilted in favor of v-shaped recovery versus a slow and prolonged one, and then they're saying that they show that Chart I think Jack Talk to this about the yield curve steepening, even though literally four or five days ago, I was saying that the yield curve is the steepest. It's been since two thousand seventeen between five hundred thirties, so they're saying the yield curves steepening already. That's GonNa Steep even more why? Why because we don't have a v-shaped recovery, so that's not necessarily bullish. In terms of you know all out bullish in the same way that March twenty. Third March twenty second was bearish, but it's pretty darned bullish about where we are. It's sort of an extrapolation of the present situation forward in a way that i. find so aggressive that you know I think that we have to start to think about the reopening trade and win. That's going to start to fade. I've said in the past that I'm thinking you know the moment is. Q. Three, but it could happen anytime now between. Now and in that time period. And just reviewed today where we are ten year treasury yield up again, fractionally to about eighty seven and a half basis point, zero point, eight seven four percents, and ten ten. Ten twos were at. We're at about. Well zero zero point six five. Right so. Much of you basically is, this is is that? You know the equity markets they can trade in the short term on sediment, especially when economic indicators are moving in one direction or another. I think that a lot of people have thought. Revision. They've been very bearish along the way. If you look back, actually, we were saying I certainly was saying. April twenty-seventh that it's going to be positive in terms of the reopening, and that's going to be good. Over the short term, the real question is over the long term what that means for equity markets and I think it's interesting. I think there are a number of different indicators. I for one talk about the fundamentals I think about the fundamentals and the fundamentals coming to the fore at a minimum by September October timeframe but I. I talked today to Michael how I'm going to have a conversation with tomorrow about liquidity he talks about liquidity, being a huge factor driving equities and equity is being you know eighty percent sentiment, twenty percent of macro, and if you WANNA play the macro than it's eighty percent macro and twenty percent sentiment in the bond market, and that's where you wanna play the macro side so to the degree that you are washing the quitting. You're going to continue to be Awash Liquidity Michael Hal he's GonNa. Tell me tomorrow when I talked to him that. It's all about the equities going up. I tend to believe that equities will. Towards the fundamentals over a medium to longer term period of time. You know at this point that's just so crucial. What people are thinking about this? And when they're trying to figure out their framework, the notion of time horizons, and that one can be simultaneously. Bullish in the short term for technical factors because of liquidity positioning and be secularly Barish, because of long term, fundamental trends that are either cyclical or structural is such an important point. Could you talk a little bit more about your thesis and how it relates on multiple time horizons to understand what's happening in markets right now? Yeah so I mean when I was talking about this. In late April I was thinking about Europe and Europe outperformance particularly northern Europe and I talked about New Zealand as well because they were going to be leaving the lockdown, they could leave the lockdown. There wasn't GonNa be very high our numbers and to me that look like outperformance relative to the states, and of course when you look at it over the short term from a sentiment in. Perspective when you're moving out of that lockdown. Earlier in the numbers are moving higher. That's going to positively affect the sentiment, so that's positive. The the United States actually ended up of moving out much quicker than people expected, and so that also was positive and continues to be positive as well it respective of what you might think about Kobe nineteen. It could be that right now. We have super spreader events that are happening that that's irrelevant because that's that's something that's down the line. What people are looking at? They're looking at the data as the data come out now, and then they're thinking about that. In the context of their overall story and to a degree, they will extrapolate that forward, but then over the longer period of time. You have to look at some of the structural factors that are at play, and whether or not those factors will continue to to be relevant and for me. A lot of that has to do with. Private debt it has to do with consumption patterns. It has to do with stimulus and the mix of that over the longer term on earnings and earnings growth. Young all interesting points. You know what this reminds me of actually in. It's just because it's fresh in my mind, religion subscribers will know that we released an interview this morning with jared maniac and row pal, and if you haven't heard of jared Maneki he's a really. Fantastic analysts especially about on US equities and developed market equities more generally. He ran a devout market strategy over at Morgan. Stanley I think Jared would have been on TV all the time in the United States if he wasn't based in in Australia with a twelve hour time, difference makes really hard to interview people on live shows, but he on his thesis what he's looking at for developed market equities. It's a very sophisticated taking. He makes precisely this point. What jared said was that he sees what He. He calls huge swath of risk. He talks about some of the things that we've talked about a second round of effects from the virus, slowing recovery, rising geo political tension and November election risk here in the US, and then he says quote are the market's taking much accounting things. No, that's the probably got, so he's he saying that he sees this situation where he's potentially bullish in the short term for momentum, factors or technical factors but obviously he sees a real concerns about what's happening in the broader picture. Picture strategically structurally cyclically says look you know this is. This is absolutely unprecedented. He talks about the terminal point of the recovery, which is something that you and I've talked about something you've talked about with wral and certainly will deal with Roger and he basically says this is a long-term disinflationary trend, the businesses that are working with operational leverage so even if we're able to get back to ninety percent capacity, which from what we're hearing in New York is incredibly optimistic if you're talking about fifty percents eating in. In restaurants he sees a two year whole effectively in earnings, and and accelerating deflationary pressures, and he assumes that in a way that you know basically saying we're all assuming that this is the best case and then rising fiscal debt burdens on the structural side and he he ended this this section of the interview by saying, and this is worth quoting, he says quote it usually dependent on your time horizon as an investor, and this is exactly what you were just talking to ed in your own visas in the. The way that you look at markets. Yeah, and you. I would add in two other commentators that we're GONNA, see on Real Vision WanNa actually already spoken to the other Michael how I mentioned before to speak to a Michael Hall. He told me in the conversation. We had pre interview that. If you look at growth stocks, gross dots actually discount only six percent of their total earnings in years one and two so right there. If you say to yourself, I'M GONNA. Write off two thousand and twenty. I'M GONNA. Write up! Up Two thousand and twenty one bang. You can say that I'm looking through all this data that just write it off. I'm only I'm only down. Six percent of my growth stocks value stocks. It's fifteen percent for years one and two as a result of that, so what that means is is is that if the market's down six percent for growth stocks relative to where it was before, that's basically discounting all of the earnings for two, thousand, twenty, two, thousand, twenty, one from. Michael House point of view and that is. Is that's doable in the market. Continue especially to the degree that there's liquidity being pumped into the market move higher on that thesis. A different take I spoke to dares Dell Hill. Come on on Thursday. He's what he said is is that if you look at credit card and auto loan forbearance that's ending in June. If you looked at enhance unemployment insurance that's ending July and then if you look at mortgage of forbearance, Neo Fannie and Freddie. That's six months time horizon, so it's going to end somewhere at the. The end of Q., three of q four, all of that and you combine the fact that you know the likes of Mitch McConnell or basically saying no more deficits, you have big up fiscal cliff, so to speak coming in Q. Three. That's going to be net negative from a sentiment perspective because you're you're. Comparisons are going to be very poor on a year and a quarter over quarter basis that could potentially drive sentiment that causes the market to sell off in Q. Three. I think that's a very interesting thesis. Those are two conflicting very conflicting opinions, but it gives you a sense of the wide range of both timeframes and opportunities that you have. To to make money in the market, you could be on one side of the other and you know. Performance will be very different. Darius style of course from hedge, looking forward to seeing that interview with UN. I think that he explains the hedge I- Quad model very well I I really enjoyed the conversation I had with them. I think it'll be a good conversation. Yeah, in for those of you who are familiar with the hedge quadrant model it effectively pairs up growth and inflation deflation into four different quadrants and explains what's happening in the economy in a very high level elegant way. He has so the question now i. think now that we know that the. the the riots are largely over that we're reopening and that you know we probably are not going to go up close again. Is How much damage was done? And how slow will a trajectory big and based upon that? How much have equities discounted that already? And how much will they continue to discount that? There are a lot of different ways to think about that and. I tend to see Gerard Manek's point, which is is that a lot of the risks to the downside based upon what market you're discounting now over the medium to long-term. But over the short term, I think that there's still a lot of liquidity in the market there still some scope for positive surprises on economic data front, but all of that is going to start to dissipate the further and further we get into the summer into July, August September time from that's where the fragility will present itself. Yeah you've been saying for several weeks of the place where you gonNA. See this shakeout is in the fall. That's right, exactly so I look at as you know. April twenty-seventh that was where I said okay. Great reopening. I'm looking at September October as now have enough data and I believe that day will show that there's material slowing and that we're going to have off at that particular juncture. Yup You know where the eighty six point six percent retracement level on the SNP, above this seventy eight point, six percent retracement level that we were watching. And now at ninety five point, three percent of all time highs, and where the Nasdaq closed to the Nasdaq closed at nine, thousand, nine, hundred, twenty, four up one percent I, one point, one three percent to be precise on the day crossed an all time high. So you know off to the races, the only thing I could say is it will be interesting to see how markets react to the Nasdaq. Now at an all time high is that a bullish indicator or is that an indicator that you know it's time to start fading this particular rally and take some profits and look for. That the market could move higher. Yes we shall see. So. My overall messages is that. We were going forward. You know in terms of who we have on our platform. We really do need to have a mix of of different views I think we have that. In terms of people like Michael Hal who's coming on board. I think it would be good. In terms of the Real Vision daily briefing to have some bullish views presented as well as some bearish views of both over the short end, the longer term I was talking to a gentleman by the name of j Posco's been in our platform before I think he could actually be. Who could talk about a bullish longer term view which we don't really hear as much on real vision and he'd be a great gas to have you know in terms of you're talking to him later on this week ice. Yeah, just terrific I interview I ended one of his pieces. Rather I should say in I. Think Two Thousand Nineteen. He's always compelling big picture thinker. So hopefully we can get that sorted and. Look forward to hearing what people say when they when they get a much more robust long-term bullish view in the market. Yes indeed. Thanks again had welcome back. Thanks good to talk to you again.

US Europe Morgan Stanley ECB Ed Ed Harrison New York Michael Hal Michael Bennington Real Vision Farley Washington Christine Lagarde Chief Economist Greece Fed Italy Spain
Episode 129: Digging Deep

Lore

37:22 min | 1 year ago

Episode 129: Digging Deep

"In the fall of eighteen thirty seven the city of London was under the power of something. Mysterious a human figure was appearing at night in front random citizens frightening them with its claw like hands glowing eyes and blue fire that spewed from its mouth after each attack the figure gear. It would leap away. Sometimes over tall fences or buildings soon enough public had a name for it. Spring heeled Jack. In early eighteen thirty eight's one man had heard enough. He was the seventy year old retired. General who had been responsible for defeating Polian at Waterloo known to history as the Duke of Wellington and with his city under attack from dark forces he strapped on his sword mounted his horse and went hunting for a monster answer. That is all true. It's on the historical record but over the years. I've often wondered what if the Duke of Wellington had done that before. What if he had secretly been a hunter of supernatural threats his entire life and if so what would that look like the answer answer it turns out was a story I needed to write so about a year ago? I teamed up with the Comic Book Publisher. Idea W and New York Times bestselling author Delilah Delilah Dawson to bring that story to life. The final result a five issue series called Wellington will kick off in mid December and. It's absolutely absolutely stunning. You can preorder your copy of issue one right now from your local comic book shop. And if you don't know where that is you can find it real easy by heading to comic shop op locator Dot Com and punching in your zip code. I'm super excited about the series and I think you're going to love it. preorder your copy today and get ready to ride alongside Wellington into the heart of evil and now on with the show the construction and was called to a stop. The moment they found the bones the work crew was preparing a building site along one of London's many ancient streets when they uncovered what appeared to be a body or at least the remains of one. It was clearly old given nothing but bones could be seen beneath the dirt. So a team of archaeologists was brought in to preserve and study the remains in the end. They determined that the bones belonged to a teenage girl who had lived in London over sixteen hundred years ago. A Roman girl. It's not the last time something like that has happened. In the city during some development work near spittle fields market in the nineteen nineties a a work crew uncovered what turned out to be an entire Roman cemetery. Among the finds was a perfectly preserved lead coffin its lid covered and beautiful artwork that had been hammered right into the surface still visible all these centuries later and that's the way history tends to work time time will bury it beneath new and current events but if we dig deep enough and brush away the soil we can come face to face with it all over again. The past never truly goes away after all. It's there waiting to be discovered so that we can study it and relearn the stories it contains oftentimes though the things that lead the deepest marks tend to be the most tragic and painful events that rattled people to their core and left if the shadow on the history of a place that no amount of sunlight could ever chase away and the older the city the more common though shadows tend to be which is why I want to take you on a tour of one of the oldest because while the past is always nearby in our modern world view places allow how it to dwell so close to the present as the city of London. It's past is both the Treasury of historical significance and decrypt full of the darkest arcus tragedies. We could ever imagine because in a city filled with so much light. There's bound to be some shadows. I'm Erin Minke. And this is Lor London is ancient. There's really no other way to say it. Most Americans live in a community. That's less than two hundred years old. If you're in New England or one of the other places with roots in precolonial America perhaps those locations go back a bit further but London's history makes all of those seem brand new by comparison. Archaeological work in London can place humans in the area as far back as forty five hundred BC. But if we're looking for a major settlement where it stands today that didn't happen until forty seven ad when the Romans arrived and set up a community there that they called London eum. Although from what we can tell it didn't last long al.. Thanks to a woman named Boudicca as as far as historians know Buddha was the wife of King Prostitute who ruled over eastern British tribe known as the Ice Seaney when the Romans arrived in their territory and forty the three ad they came to an arrangement with prostitutes allowing him to maintain control of his kingdom when he died seventeen years later though. The Romans Woman's refuse to acknowledge his widow as the new ruler and instead invaded them to take the land for themselves but they misjudged Buddhika assuming she was a quiet woman incapable of ruling. Anything instead to rallied a massive army of close to one hundred thousand warriors and led them on a campaign against the Romans all over for Britain in sixty one AD. Her army rolled over London. EUM like a Sherman tank burning the entire settlement to the ground in fact her campaign pain against them with so fierce and unstoppable that the Romans nearly left Britain altogether but those who survived managed to rebuild and within a handful of decades it had grown in large enough to become the capital of the entire province. Over the years the city continued to expand and mature and even though the Romans left toward toward the beginning of the fifth century. The community there refused to die by the seventh century. London had earned a reputation as a major trade center which brought in a steady flow of wealth and goods and also turned the city into a political powerhouse. Of course power and wealth has a way of making a community target for others. I and London was no exception in ten sixty six. William the conqueror sailed across the English Channel and earned his nickname by taking control of the entire Kingdom and making making his own and of course special attention was paid to London. Within two decades. The population of the city had reached nearly fifteen thousand and by the thirteen hundreds that had multiplied to over eighty thousand. But something unexpected was heading their way that would ravage that growing community. Something mysterious and dangerous. Seemingly unstoppable the black death what started as a plague in western Asia quickly spread to Europe bringing death and destruction action to every community at touched. By the time the black death had burned itself out some historians estimate that upwards of two hundred million people were dead the people of London and lost at least ten thousand lives most of whom were buried outside the city walls. It wouldn't be the last time. The city would face tragedy in sixteen nineteen sixty four. A fresh outbreak of the plague killed another one hundred thousand people and then two years later in September of sixteen sixty six. A fire broke out in the house of Baker on Pudding Lane. It eventually spread west destroying much of the city as it went and while there were only six verified casualties historians now think the fire burned hot enough to completely cremate. Those who were caught in. It's making the true death toll anyone's gas so much of London's history was tragic and outside human control but there have also been moments along the way that could only be blamed on the people who live there jack the ripper and the murders that took place in eighteen eighty eight in the white chapel. All district of the city are always front and center in most people's minds. But there's been a lot more bloodshed than just those five innocent women. In fact a lot of the city's murder murder in violence could be found higher up the ladder in the very chambers and homes of the people who held the power and wealth. It seemed that rather than being immune to the shadows that lingered in the city even the powerful could fall under their spell. Because if there's one thing the nobility of England's past seemed to attract more than anything thing else it was pain and suffering and death we don't need to look far to find bloody nobles nobles it sometimes feels as though all we have to do is open a history book and flip to a random page life. Top was often a cutthroat game. Both figuratively family and literally and anyone who found themselves in the orbit of a King or Queen certainly understood that risk a great example of how bloodthirsty the English kings could be. Was Henry the eighth. Henry is known for a lot of things not all of which are so great. In retrospect he expanded the power of the crown during his lifetime and based a lot of that on his belief in the divine right of kings. Something that threatened the freedom of his people. He was greedy and vindictive and had an ego that was only surpassed Aston size by the con- piece on his armor. But if there is one thing that most people remember today about Henry the eighth. It's his many wives. Henry had six six of them half of whom were named Kathryn which must have made it a lot easier for him. I'm sure five of those. Six wives came and went within its single ten year period in his life but not all of those breakups were friendly. After having his first marriage annulled in fifteen thirty three and sparking the English reformation and the country three separation from the Catholic Church Henry married the sister of a former lover. A woman named an Berlin three years later he had her executed for treason and adultery but also possibly for failing to deliver a male heir. The day after Ann's beheading Henry proposed to one of her ladies in waiting Jane Seymour. They they had apparently fallen in love months before but Jane had managed to hold off. Henry's advances in the name of honor. Once the Queen was dead. Though she was much more agreeable they remarried ten days later from everything I can tell. Henry believed that Jane Seymour was the one viewed her as his perfect queen and when she gave birth earth to his first male heir a year later he probably side with relief but complications from the birth put her life at risk in over the two weeks that followed. She slowly declined in October. Of Fifteen. Thirty seven Jane Seymour passed away that had taken place at Hampton Court Palace. Henry's favourite London residence. It's a mixture of a pleasure palace a theater and a royal home. So when Henry brought his next to wives through those doors over the next few years they were the probably bittersweet moments a lot of joy would be possible there but it would always sit in the shadows of a painful past his fifth wife. Wife Catherine Howard made a fool of the king by conducting at least one less than secrets affair after learning about what she had done. Henry had catherine arrested and thrown in prison themsel- there at the house. She was only eighteen at the time. And I can't imagine the fear and desperation. She must have felt being a prisoner of the most powerful man in the Kingdom uh according to the stories though Catherine managed to slip away from her garden one day while being walked through the palace she bolted away and ran down. One belong long galleries that led to the king's chapel. where she knew Henry could be found? Her goal was probably to beg for forgiveness to ask for mercy and to plead for her life but the guards caught up to her before that could happen and her screams of terror. Were the only thing to reach him. Catherine Howard was beheaded a short while later and Henry moved onto a new wife also named Kathryn but just because those former wives were gone doesn't mean they were forgotten in fact if the stories are true they might have stuck around to serve as a cruel reminder. It said even today visitors to that long gallery in the palace have heard echoes of a woman screaming a desperate panicked cry that chills them to the bones. Others have heard the quick rhythm of footsteps as if someone were running down the hallway and in Nineteen nineteen ninety nine according to one source to different tourists fainted in the gallery at different times on the very same day elsewhere in Hampton Court Palace. Less other shadows have stuck around as well in a room at the top of the staircase known as the silver stick stairs. Multiple visitors have claimed to have seen the figure of Pale woman. She stands silently hovering slightly above the floor with a mournful expression and vacant is for those who have witnessed it. The Specter has been both calming mean and terrifying whether or not the visions a real though. It's fascinating to look at the true history of that room because while it has been used used for countless purposes over the last few centuries one specific resident stands out above all the others. It was in this room. You see that Henry. The eighth eighths only male heir was born to his true love Jane Seymour and it was there just two weeks later. That she passed away Oh the old home located on Berkeley Square is a town house. Just one of many in a long row of similar facades but as far back as the mid nineteenth century it was different enough to stand out from all the others but before I continue with the legends. Let me be clear that not a lot is known about the House's origins and a lot out of stories have yet to be completely verified. Still we know enough to make this journey worth taking so let's get started. The majority Jordy of details begin with the man who owned the House. Back in the eighteen. Sixties Thomas Maier wasn't the first to live there but he was certainly the most infamous. It said that he had wants been engaged to be married but fiance eventually changed her mind and ended their relationship broken and distraught. He retreated into his house and was rarely rarely ever seen again. Neighbors claim that the house would be dead during the day only to come alive at night. It was as if Thomas had traded in the sunlight for or the shadows leaving the rest of his life during those moments when most of the world was asleep and it might very well be whispers of the house all lit up at night that I gave birth the rumor that it was haunted but could also have been what happened next sometime around eighteen. Seventy two the house sold to a new family and they moved in to clean up the home and make it their own. The couple had two daughters both in their late teens and they were precious few years left for the parents to enjoy life as a family in this new setting writing before they became empty nesters in the weeks that followed though the future crept in the oldest of the two daughters became engaged to a young officer named captain. Captain Canfield than conversation became filled with talk of wedding plans and guest list and at some point in their engagement. Captain Canfield planned visit so the family set about preparing the attic bedroom for his rival. According to the story what happened next is still shrouded in mystery. The family made with sent up to put the final final touches on the fiancee's room and while she was up there the family heard her scream at once. Everyone in the house rushed upstairs to see what had happened only to find her lying on the floor and expression of complete horror painted across her face. More mysterious yet was that she couldn't seem to put a complete sentence synced together and was unable to answer any questions. The family asked her all the made was able to do was mutter low cryptic refrain. Don't let it touch me. Don't let it touch me. The made was immediately taken to the hospital to recover where I imagine. Someone observed her and did their best to treat her rattled nerves but other than that there was little they could do sleep. They assumed would be the best medicine the following morning. Though she was found dead in her room the fiance arrived the next day. And after hearing the stories of the maids unexpected death he decided to check the room out for himself. Maybe he was playing the brave soldier in front of his future in laws in an effort to impress them or perhaps his fiancee needed some reassurance and he wanted to calm her nerves whatever the reason he climbed the stairs to the attic bedroom and declared that he would keep watch throughout the night in the darkest hours of the morning. Though a gunshot gunshot pulled everyone from sleep their heart's racing at the sound of it. Everyone climbed out of bed through on their night coats and then rushed up to see what had happened. What they found according to the legend was the young captain dead on the floor of his room a victim of his own pistol in one thousand nine hundred seven author? Charles Harper wrote about the house in a book and it was there that he declared to be the very picture of misery after the events that were said to have taken place there. It's easy to wonder if the misery was in the structure or the lives who live there either way the stories. We've heard so far. Shed a bright right lights on one more tale. That Harper added to the legend according to him the next family to own the house moved in fully aware of the tragedies of the past asked the owner was an older gentleman who is said to be practical and not prone to stories of the supernatural. Still he understood the power of suggestion. The creepy old house with a dark past might have over him so he set some rules for everyone to follow after settling in with his family. He told them all that he would ring his his bel- to tell them if he ever truly needed help. If it was a moment of frights he would only bring it once which they were all instructed to ignore but if matters were more pressing and he truly needed help he would ring twice a signal that they were to immediately come to his room. Everyone went to bed at the end of the evening and while the night right began peacefully the quiet was broken around midnight by the loud chime of the old man's bell not once but twice which sent everyone rushing to see see what might be the matter what they found. Though weren't answers. The old man was riding in his bed. His face twisted by panic nick in fear just like the house made all those years before he too couldn't answer the questions that the others around him asked he could only mutter and shake with Horror at something. No one else could see after doing their best to help him. They calm him enough to let him sleep and everyone wandered back to their own rooms. They left his bel- on the table beside his bed hoping that he would remember how to use it if needed them but the remainder of the night was one long stretch of unbroken silence. In the morning they discovered why after visiting the old man's bedroom to check on him one of his family members gently pushed the door open and peered inside the shape and the bed was unmoving and so they approached awake him and see how he felt but like those in the house before him he to head passed away. A random coincidence of natural causes or a demonstration of the power of fear There's a lot about London that seems to echo the atmosphere of the house at fifty Berkeley Square. It's a city painted. Did shadows but it's unclear if that darkness was always there or if we imported over the centuries what's clear is that almost from the start tragedy and suffering has been a resident of this ancient city right back to the invasion of Boudicca nearly two thousand years ago and up to its most modern challenges. Orange is the city of London has had to suffer through quite a bit and that has a way of leading mark over the centuries though the the city has always found ways to move on. New Layers are added all the time building. The present on top of the past and slowly burying one dark moment beneath another which is probably why London is one of those places where new construction always seems to bump into ancient things if you dig deep enough. You're guaranteed need to find something and look. London is a massive city. And while I did my best to cover some of its larger and more powerful stories there there are hundreds more that I had to leave untouched. Honestly if you want to visit a haunted location in the city just visit a local pub like the ten bells or the flask or the Spaniard. In if the stories are true you'll find a lot more than a pint of Ale waiting for you inside but if there's one mark on the pages as of London's history that is bigger than most it's hard to deny the power of the plague if you remember when the wave of disease washed over the city in sixteen sixty five it took two years to run its course and in the process it claimed the lives of nearly one hundred thousand people and that was a lot of tragedy to deal with on the personal and the the public level. The biggest problem seemed to be what to do with all those corpses. We've all seen films like Monty Python and the holy grail and can all remember number lines like bring out your dead and from what we can tell that's pretty close to how it actually would have been a steady daily flow of bodies out of the city away from the places places where people lived in the hope that it would stop the spread of the disease and most of the bodies were carried outside the city limits. One such burial location was started by the Earl of craven who purchased a parcel of land west of the city for disposal of plague victims and every night for months on end carts filled with rotting corpses. Were wheeled out onto his land and then dumped into the pits there over time the place became known as the pest house field and later it was named gelding holding close but to be honest few people actually went there. They were too afraid of what might happen if they got too close to the body of a plague victim or heaven forbid accidentally accidentally touched one so the burial plot like so many others around the city became a sort of no-man's land after years of waiting. The owners owners of the land eventually made the decision to use the property for development. London was growing in. There would always be a need for a new neighborhood to settle in so it was sold in. Pieces is and developed into homes for the wealthy elite to move away from the center of the city. Gelding closed eventually became known as Golden Square. And today. It's a prominent feature in the Soho area of London. But even though the name has changed and the landscape around it has been transformed. The past is still there. Lingering Green in the shadows of modern life in fact more than a few visitors to the park and buildings that surrounded have bumped into the past in a very real way a few you have seen the figures of people dressed in old fashioned clothing slipping through the square at night while most if caught the sound of wailing as if someone were enduring horrible pain pain and suffering. But it's not the specific things people have heard over the years that are the most terrifying aspect of these stories. No it's where they all claim the voices have come from the sounds. They say seem to emanate from right beneath their feet In a city as old and historic is London is guaranteed to have a library of mysterious shadows rose and other worldly experiences and I hope. Today's tour has been a satisfying dip into that enormous pond. But I'm not done just yet. This one more legend judging from the city that I absolutely love and if you stick around through the sponsor break I plan to tell you all about it. This episode of Laura was made possible by the great courses. Plus right now. I'm listening to a course called a history of England from the tutors to the stuarts and if you love today's tour we're through London this is the course for you and includes a deep dive into the black death. Tales of murderous royalty and so much more the great courses plus offers unlimited limited monthly access to thousands of lectures in virtually any category all taught by some of the world's leading professors and experts explore everything from photography and world history to writing writing fiction or gardening. And it's easy to just pick a course and then watch it on any device anytime anywhere. Start learning with the great courses plus today at right now. They're giving our our listeners. A special limited time offer a free month of unlimited access. But the only way to get this offer is by signing up through my special url just visit the great courses says plus dot com slash. Lor Create an account. And then pick your first course start learning on your own terms. That's great courses plus dot com slash. Lor For this episode was also made possible by squarespace. Now I will be the first to admit that I have a very weird job. I tell bizarre stories for a living and it takes. There's a lot of time to do it right so everything else. That's on my list like managing changes to my website or adding items to the lower shop. It all needs to be incredibly simple. Which is why I use squarespace with squarespace? You can create beautiful websites to show off. Your artwork published a blog cellular digital and physical products even promote your business below our website. The site has been powered by squarespace since the very beginning almost five years now and I can't imagine doing it any other way between their beautifully designed templates. Powerful ECOMMERCE features is free hosting an award-winning twenty. Four seven customer support. squarespace has everything. I need to run a professional website without making that my profession get started today. A free visit squarespace dot com slash Lord to start your free trial websites. And when you're ready to launch be sure to use the offer Code Laura at checkout to save ten percent squarespace build something beautiful and finally this episode was made possible by fracture fracture wants to change the way that you think about printing your photos instead. Instead of printing on photo paper fracture prints directly onto glass turning your favorite photographs into works of art. And they're absolutely gorgeous to. I've got one of their prince sitting on a shelf shelf near my desk and I love it. Fractures are so minimal that they look good in any decor and ordering one is just a simple upload your image place the order and a few days later you'll have everything when you need to display that piece of art including a wall hanger. raptures may great gifts to and they're made right here in America in Gainesville Florida in fact right inside a green and modern turn carbon-neutral factory so you can feel good about what you're buying right now. Lor listeners can save fifteen percent off the first order by visiting fracture me dot com slash. Lor are and using the offer code. Laura one five when you do. They're going to ask you how you heard about fracture. So don't forget to tell them that lore sent you enjoy that fifteen percent off the day that's fracture me dot com slash lor offer coat lor one five When you think of London it's easy to think of money? As far back as the Roman period of the city there has been an overt focus on the financial industry in about two hundred forty eight for example the Romans constructed myth the three am a temple devoted to the god Mithras. Some of the most common members of the cult of mithras were merchants traders customs officials and politicians all professions things that revolved around the flow of money. But it didn't end with the Romans as the centuries ticked by the people of London found new and better ways to manage money and build the economy in a year. Eleven hundred King Henry the first instituted a new system of currency that even the most illiterate and uneducated citizens of his kingdom could understand the tally stick. It was essentially a polished wooden. Rod Had Knicks carved into it to denote its value and it was then split down the middle King kept one half while the other was put into circulation in places like the city markets. And that's where the system really shined if anyone tried to change the value of the public half by adding another nick it just needed to be compared to the other half kept safe by the crown but at the end of the seventeenth century. One of the biggest changes to the financial world of London was born the Bank of England it was created in sixteen ninety four to solve a tricky financial problem. The government of England faced they needed to build a massive of navy to defend themselves but lacked the funds to do it so an elaborate system of lending and currency came to their rescue a century later. The Bank of of England was simply a way of life for the people of London it had all the prestige and power. You might expect from a government backed bank and had established a reputation for itself that has carried into the twenty first century. But I don't want to give you a tour of the banks full history. I just want to tell you about one of their employees. A man named Phillip Whitehead Whitehead worked in the cashier's Office of the Bank of England in eighteen eleven everyone around him viewed him as a pillar of the establishment. A hardworking respectable man man who was charming and delightful with staff and customers alike. Except that's not all he was. Philip was also a criminal it turns out he had been forging bank documents for months. Cheating the bank out of a slow trickle of money and at some point in eighteen eleven his misdeeds were discovered and he was quickly arrested and sent off to the prison a few months later in early eighteen twelve Phillip Whitehead hanged for his crimes and the bank moved on several weeks after Phillips hanging meaning though a woman came into the bank asking for him she said her name was Sarah but when she asked to speak with Phillip Whitehead she was simply told that he was out of the office on a business errand. The woman left disappointed but promised to be back at another time the next time that she returned she not only told them that her name was Sarah but that she was Philip's sister she. She told them of how she had lost touch with her brother many months earlier in that she had been desperate to find a way to reach him and at some point. Her story must have plucked at the heartstrings. Of just us the right bank employees because one of the men took her aside and told her the truth. Her brother was dead. It wouldn't be Sarah's last visit to the bank. Though the next time she returned she was dressed all in black with a black veil that covered her face. She stepped into the lobby of the bank and asked to see her brother. Taking pity on the poor woman official at the bank pulled her aside apologized for keeping his imprisonment and execution secrets and offered a small settlement. It was a payoff of course designed to keep her from disturbing the other customers. But I'm sure he sold it to her more as a salve for her aching heart either way. She accepted the money and then left but she returned a few days later over and over again. Sarah Whitehead visited the bank each time dressed in that black gown and veil that I her voice was nothing more than a whisper but with each new visit. Her question became louder and more aggressive Where is my brother? She continued to ask each of those visits ended with another small payment from the bank but they weren't the Charity House conventionally decided that enough was enough pulling her aside one day they handed her a massive settlement and told her never to return and to her credit. Sarah Whitehead listened. She never again set foot inside the bank although it said she also never wore anything else but that black gown dark veil. We don't don't know how long Sarah lived after that. Sometimes grief has a way of speeding up a person's decline while other times. It seems to give them a reason to go on but decades later her. Sarah passed away. Having spent the remainder of her life. In a constant state of mourning for her dead brother. Legend says that the churchyard she chose for her burial Israel was the one right next door to the bank. Maybe she wanted to keep an eye on them from the other world or perhaps it just happened to be where she attended church. I like to think it was the former and that those who still worked at the bank in new her story were aware of where she was buried. It's very poetic. Whether or not it was actually true but her story doesn't end there. Of course. In the years following Sarah Whitehead's death employees inside the bank began to report seen strange range things. oftentimes it was nothing more than a movement just out of their field of vision cod in the corner of their eye but never there when they turn their head other other times it was the fleeting vision of something black and shadowy many who have worked in the bank claim that certain areas. Give them a feeling of hopelessness and despair and on rare occasions. Some claim a mysterious shape has even materialized right before their eyes all of them have described it in the same way to. Oh giving the old stories new life as the decades passed by. They say the shape is that of a woman each time. She appears peers. Her Pale skin is framed by address as black as coal veil that had once covered her face pulled back to reveal twisted lips. Red Cheeks is that seem to glow like fire. But it's the words. She speaks. That frighten people. The most after locking is with them and washing them in a wave of terror. The woman in black repeats the same words. She had grown so accustomed to in life. where she asks them is my? I brought her This episode of Law was written and produced by me Aaron Minke with research by Robin Miniature and music by Chad Lawson law is much more than just podcast. There's a book series available in bookstores and online online and two seasons of the television show on Amazon Prime Video. Check them both out. If you want more lore in your life I also make to other podcasts Aaron encased cabinet of curiosities and on obscured. And I think you'd enjoy both each one explores areas of our dark history ranging from bite sized episodes to season-long dives into a single topic. You can learn more about both of those shows and everything else going on over in one central place the world of Lor dot com slash now. And you can also follow the show on twitter facebook and instagram just search for lower podcast. All one word and then click that that follow button and when you do say hi. I like it when people say hi as always. Thanks for listening

London Henry England squarespace Sarah Whitehead Jane Seymour New York Times Wellington Bank of England Lor London Charles Harper Berkeley Square Kathryn Laura Roman cemetery Publisher Polian America England