7 Burst results for "Thomas Hayes"
Techmeme Ride Home
"thomas hayes" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home
"Remember that part in the Ben Smith bonus episode a couple of weeks ago where I told him about people asking me if I was worried that someday I wouldn't have enough tech news venues to quote from for this show. Well, worry about motherboard, the tech vertical from vice since vice has filed for bankruptcy and agreed to sell its assets to lenders, including fortress and Soros fund for around $225 million. Assets and liabilities at vice media are apparently 500 million to a $1 billion, quoting Reuters. Vice said the lender consortium that includes fortress investment group Soros fund management and Monroe capital will provide about $225 million in a credit bid for almost all of its assets and also assume significant liabilities at closing. Under a credit bid creditors can swap their secured debt rather than pay cash for the company's assets, vice listed both assets and liabilities in the range of 500 million to $1 billion. Creditors are taking it over at a steep discount and we will find out whether they can become viable with a much slimmer capital structure coming out of bankruptcy, said Thomas Hayes, chairman, at investment firm, great hill capital. Vice was among a group of fast rising digital media ventures that once had rich valuations as they quoted millennial audiences. It rose to prominence alongside its cofounder Shane Smith, who built his media empire from a single Canadian magazine. Vice has received commitments and consent from the lenders to use more than $20 million in cash, which it said would be more than sufficient to fund its business through the sale process. The company had on April 27th said it would cancel popular TV program vice news tonight as part of a broader restructuring of its news division a week before that, BuzzFeed said it would shutter its news division. At its peak 6 years ago, vice was valued at $5.7 billion. This is what I was speaking about when at the height of the BuzzFeed news era, as discussed with Ben Smith, people thought things like BuzzFeed and vice were the future of media, and so the money faucets were wide open for these companies. It's a weirdly
Mental Illness Happy Hour
"thomas hayes" Discussed on Mental Illness Happy Hour
"Today I put a website blocker on all of my browsers. So hopefully that snaps me out of it long enough to stop doing it. Thank you for sharing all of that stuff. And I want to encourage you to find a community of people, the website, browser, is great, but a website browser alone isn't going to heal the shit in us that needs to be healed if we're going to feel safer from compulsive behaviors that we use to soothe ourselves that aren't healthy and may harm ourselves and others and it's already clearing. Clearly harming you, it's affecting its affecting your work and I imagine it's affecting your personal relationships. As well as how you feel and think about yourself. Sexual fantasies most powerful to you. I fantasize about my wife taking control and basically using me without only without any ambiguity whatsoever about whether or not she's in the mood. Her libido is much lower than mine and makes me feel extremely needy and undesirable. Voyeurism and incest are obviously both kinks of mine as well. Sharing this makes me feel sad. I mostly just wish my wife would be as enthusiastic about sex as she was when we first started dating. The other kinks are fun, but I can do without them. I simply want to feel more desired during sex. That's got to be a hard one. And I know a lot of people who are in relationships where their partner is not into it, and that while I've experienced that a few times in the past, it's. Something that somebody who is in a long-term relationship, I can't imagine what that is like to feel that for years and years and years or decades. What if anything would you like to say to someone when you haven't been able to? I want to say, I'm sorry to my sister who found the spy camera. That incident probably had an incredibly damaging impact on her life and her view of me. It was impulsive and unforgivable. Even if she believed my excuse, she still had the shock of finding a spy camera while in her most vulnerable state. I understand better now how violated and unsafe that can make someone feel and I hate myself for potentially inflicting that on her. I can't remember if you said urine therapy or not, but you know, I think talking to a therapist about that and talking about maybe making an amends to your sister, it might be a good idea as it uncomfortable or as terrifying as that seems, but again, I'm not a therapist. So just throwing that out there. Have you shared things with others? Just the problems I've had with my parents, a regularly share or hint at my mom's addictions when asked why I don't drink or do drugs. And usually goes fine, but I think it sucks that you have to have some kind of alcohol related trauma in your life for people to understand why you don't drink. You know a good thing to say is that you're allergic to alcohol. Now I know a lot of people use that one. In fact, some of my friends joke. They'll say about themselves. I'm allergic to alcohol when I drink I break out in handcuffs. To someone like me, it feels like living in a world where Alzheimer's themed parties are commonplace and you have to explain to people over and over while you find that idea uncomfortable. Who the fuck. Throws Alzheimer's themed parties, oh, it feels like living in a world. Actually. I'm dressed up as papa. I don't know where my keys are. This is fun. How do you feel after writing these things down a bit relieved? I thought I would take some of these admissions to the grave with me. I can see I definitely need professional help now. Well, I want to, I want to congratulate you up this doesn't sound kind of sanding, but I want to congratulate you on digging down into that stuff and seeing that you could benefit from professional help and or support groups. You deserve to feel human connection. My support group last night and we were talking about the whole Instagram plague of sharing your highlight reel with the world and getting a picture of yourself from the best angle with a beautiful sunset and all of that that support groups in many ways are the exact opposite of that. It's we bring in the worst pictures as an analogy of ourselves. And that's the very currency. We connect to each other on, and there is a feeling of letting go. In sharing those things, that if you've never experienced it, it's spiritual, it's the only word that I think really accurately describes it. I feel a connection to something greater than myself. Anything you'd like to share with someone who shares your thoughts or experiences. If you're like me, you need to physically block yourself from ever being able to make these mistakes. Every time I find a new vice, I am unable to put it down until my access to it is cut off. Thank you for sharing that. This is from the love survey filled out by a person who calls themselves by another name, and they write, I love getting the right thing at the right time. I've been through a separation and divorce over the past year, listening to the anger and trauma episode. Part of it clicked, hearing what I needed to work on, that I already knew was lacking in myself, giving myself space to process and communicate my boundaries. I wrote up some phrases to practice similar to what I've been doing in my parenting. So I can give myself space to use my logical brain to respond. Thomas, thank you, Thomas, was Thomas Hayes, was the guest on the anger and trauma episode. This is from the babysitter survey. And this was filled out by a woman who calls herself monster question mark. She says that she was raised in a pretty dysfunctional environment. She's in her 40s. She identifies as bisexual. She writes, I've always wondered if I were bi, I never said that to anyone. My daughter asked me when she was ten or 11 if she were allowed to be gay. I said, of course, she is now 17 and a proud lesbian. I sometimes wonder if I did something to quote make her a lesbian. Of regarding the babysitter survey, I was 11 or 12 babysitting a 5 year old neighbor boy in his friend. I somehow thought it would be a good idea to ask them to come into the bedroom while I quote napped. I laid on the bed and pulled down my shorts and underwear. I encourage them to explore my private parts. They were playing with small figures or Legos or something, and I encourage them to place them between my labia. I was not sexually aroused by this, but I knew it wasn't right. The phone rang and I told the boy to answer it. It was his dad calling to check on him from work. I'm not sure what he told his dad, but when I took the phone, his dad asked what was going on. I told him I was laying down to rest while the boys played. Within 20 minutes the dad was home and I was told to go home. I never babysat them again. Nothing was ever said to my parents or the police as far as I know. Another time I was babysitting a different boy a four year old and I asked him to lie down with me. I exposed myself to him, but he didn't touch me. He looked very afraid. I can still see his fearful big brown eyes. I never told anyone until college when I confessed to an episcopal priest
Bloomberg Radio New York
"thomas hayes" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Oh all right coming right back to you Jules so Hong Kong says he oma cron will not change talks plans to open the border with the mainland Japan is officially now announcing it will close its borders to new foreign arrivals from today Hong Kong has expanded its travel ban to Angola Ethiopia and Nigeria and Zambia from today Australia postponing plans to relax border restrictions this by at least two weeks U.S. president Joe Biden says this is a time for concern but not panic He encourages vaccinations and mask wearing New York City has issued a new mask advisory today strong They recommending residents wear masks and all indoor locations except home of course Our reports so far that oma cron is apparently far more transmissible but symptoms appear to be more mild so far China's president Xi Jinping has a pledge to supply another 1 billion doses of vaccines to African countries U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen breyer is rejected the challenge by some Massachusetts hospital workers to the vaccination mandate And Sapporo says it can hold the 2030 Winter Olympics and also save money Mayor says he will circulate a public opinion survey early next year In San Francisco I'm at Baxter as promised back to Julie yet in Singapore Thank you so much Let's get back to our guest Thomas Hayes chairman of great hill capital on the line for us from New York City and just picking up where we left off that Bloomberg economics expects that the fed could double the taper paste at the next meeting do you see a need for that Yeah well I think we're not going to have enough data on the for another two to two and a half weeks So chair Powell has been a steady hand at the wheel His reappointment is comforted markets I don't think he's going to be too aggressive to move until he has better and complete data on the variant He can always up and call a meeting at any time to accelerate it But for now I think he wants to play the steady hand moving forward and you have to keep in mind whether it's accelerated or not during that period we're going to get another 600 billion plus of liquidity over that period So even if you do see some rate hikes mid next year the economy should have a nice glide speed with 9% earnings growth expected for 2022 and just increased business expansion 4% GDP Many fed watchers say watch what happens with unemployment rather than inflation to determine what the fed does next But I want you to settle something for me That does inflation does inflation actually wreak more havoc than unemployment because it hits everyone And joblessness doesn't Yeah Inflation is taxation without legislation So it's a tax on everybody Unemployment chair Powell had really been focused on that He moved quickly in November from the pressure from his colleagues but his goal had been to get back to 3.5% unemployment put that million and a half people back to work that were employed pre-pandemic And that's always been his focus but he is acutely aware of the impact of inflation on regular folks and their daily lives and that tax that comes to them and whether it's milk or gasoline heating oil was a huge part of the component of that in recent prints So I would see he's going to be balanced He's going to be steady but I don't see him accelerating here in December without having complete and accurate data on the variance So leave it to power he'll be a steady hand to guide us through And when we look at market risks or opportunities in this period we know we still need a little bit more time as you've mentioned But what are you looking at in terms of the industrial space we know that travel restrictions are going to hurt A lot of these airlines you're looking at Boeing being caught up in the headwinds of travel restrictions to the short term travel restrictions That's right Boeing certainly caught up here we do like industrials industrials as a sector is expected to grow 36% earnings growth next year that's higher than any other sector tech is 9.7% S&P is about 9% And the big thing here Dave Calhoun said on the Q three earnings call is he expects to get the China recertification on the 7 37 max before end of the year The stock is not trading like that So if that were to come as he anticipates that would be a huge positive surprise They'd be able to take up their 7 37 max production from 19 per month right now up to 31 per month starting in Q one and that would be a huge boon for the stock for the company and for the Dow Jones Industrial as a major component and get some of these reopening and value trades that have lagged behind back on track moving forward as we get through this variant What are your thoughts at the moment for Chinese equities or Hong Kong listed equities just basically in this part of the world Given all that's happened I think this is one of the greatest opportunities for 2022 and that is the most non consensus view I think that you probably had on your show in a couple of months And the reason I'll look at some of the data here these 30 35 to 40% crashes happen every three to four years on the China MSCI The average 12 month return following that magnitude of a crash is 30% The average pre China National Congress which happens every 5 years in.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"thomas hayes" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And we are seeing several Asian nations changing their trouble plan agendas it backs to has all the global news edge All right thank you very much Julia you're right Japan is efficient It will close its borders to new foreign arrivals from today and to have its own citizens isolate on arrival from countries where oma cron is detected The entry band does not apply to foreigners already residing in the country Hong Kong has expanded its travel ban to Angola Ethiopia Nigeria and zombie from today also tightening travel restrictions for visitors from Belgium and Germany and effective Thursday and non Hong Kong residents have stayed in these countries will have the last 21 days will not be allowed to enter Hong Kong Australia postponing plans to relax border restrictions this by at least two weeks This New South Wales reporting over the weekend that two travelers from South Africa to Sydney were infected by omicron asymptomatic another two yesterday So the delay until December 15th to give authorities they say time to gather more information to better understand the variant In the U.S. president Joe Biden this variant is a cause for concern not a cause for panic and says travel bans are not punishment but by time The reason for their media travel ban is there were a significant number of cases on like any other country to other few around South Africa in the world We needed time to give people an opportunity to say get that vaccination now before it has a move around the world That is encouraging all Americans to wear masks indoors again As for vaccination doctor adalja at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg health says mRNA vaccines at this point are affected If people don't want to take the vaccine if people actively shun this great piece of technology that approves their lives it's going to be very difficult Indeed it's not surprising to me that this variant was discovered in a place where vaccination rates are 25% And that is a case of the epicenter in South Africa The CEO of Pfizer Albert bourla on Bloomberg says a very it can be contained We have been preparing for a moment like that for months right now And I feel comfortable that the playbook will work So what is the playbook Why did this understand more about this virus The second of course we're big Protect And he says if the vaccines need to be tweaked can be done in 100 days or less The reports so far are that oma karon is apparently far more transmissible but symptoms appear to be mild so far the fear without vaccinations more people who are infected allow the virus to mutate In San Francisco I met Baxter this is Bloomberg our brain All right thank you very much The time is 8 minutes past the hour Let's get to our guest It's Thomas Hayes chairman of great hill capital with this for a great discussion So Thomas before this coronavirus new variant on the hit inflation was really the sort of front burner issue for investors Let's talk a little bit about inflation This omicron do you think it makes inflation worse Because of additional bottlenecks in supply chains or better because business was slow and retailers will have to cut prices to generate business Well you don't want business to slow Brian That would be a big problem if you started to see factory shutdowns in Vietnam and the reemergence of the supply chain bottlenecks that are now started to get work through You have the two components You have the supply chain that we're hopeful is temporary and we're hopeful that this will be another variant that is just another blip that will power through But then you have wages which were happening before omicron and that are sticky So we are going to have above trend inflation But that's not necessarily a bad thing I do think these supply chain bottlenecks and omicron will work through that over the next three to 6 to 9 months That part will stop going up but wages are going to remain elevated and give us above trend inflation for some time And that's apparent in 5 year break evens The very nature of a pandemic is that the virus mutates and we see new variants Why has there been such a reaction to this You know that's a great question Juliet we came into the bad news on Friday morning here in the U.S. The market was a little bit overbought a little bit frothy but you also saw among retail investors cash holdings fell to 46% of margin balances That was the lowest reading back to 1997 So I think what you saw on Friday is a ton of retail what they call stop loss orders were taken out during the shortened trading session and the vix hit 28 which over the past 6 months has been the level where the market bottomed and bounced multiple times So I think it was just a positioning and a surprise news and a lot of professionals were not at their desks on Friday Yeah That might be true I'd like to say you're right but I think policymakers politicians are overreacting Well I don't know if they're overreacting They are reacting very strongly just like the markets reacted very strongly So it's not just a market story Let's hope that we know so much more in a week or two that we can make the right policy Bloomberg economics is actually predicting a doubling of the pace of tapering for the fed at the December meeting even with the omicron variant I'm curious and that could allow for rights to go up as soon as March I'm curious whether you think that's urgent and needed Well we have Thomas Hayes with us but we might have lost him for a moment there Let's see if we can get.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"thomas hayes" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Than we were yesterday and yesterday we were less worried than we were on Friday Will that actually translate into gains Well it seems like at least at the moment Juliet because who got the S&P or the ASX 200 up about one full percentage point You've just seen a pretty sharp open a pretty strong open in Tokyo up one and a quarter percent And we're also higher in Seoul with the Cosby up just about 1.1% It was a pretty strong day in Europe is a very strongly on Wall Street with the NASDAQ gaining 1.9% And the S&P 500 jumping 1.3% I think a key question has to do with what happens to inflation as a result of Ooma crime and we will be putting that to our guests to all throughout the morning And I have some data that I'll bring to you in just a moment I just want to mention who our guest is coming up shortly Thomas Hayes chairman of great hill capital And we will be taking a look at the bond market Treasury ten year yields jumped up over 1.5% now just a little above that with a gain of another couple of basis points for the ten year oil prices firm 71 O 6 a barrel And looking at that one bit of economic data out of Japan I wanted to mention was October industrial output It rises 1.1% month on month It was way lower than the estimate of a gain of 1.9% Bitcoin is surging as well 57,750 or so And we've seen a lot of strength in the offshore Chinese currency The CNH now 6 38 42 against the greenback Juliet All right well Jack dulce stepping down as CEO of Twitter ending a 6 year run at the helm under Dorsey Twitter's user base which was once shrinking has been growing steadily for years However the company hasn't delivered the same kind of returns as peers like snap and Facebook owner measure platforms Twitter stock has climbed 67% since 2015 while meta stock is up 260% in the same period Bloomberg's mandate Singh tells us about Dorsey's replacement We learned they picked up the CTO to be the next CEO which I think the way investors are looking at it is it will more or less be a continuation of the existing strategy granted this guy has credentials in terms of being a product guy He can definitely improve on that ad platform And chief technology officer perri agrawal has been with Twitter since 2011 Agarwal's appointment signals that Twitter will continue to focus on blockchain and decentralized technologies Twitter said Jack Dorsey will stay on the board of the company until his term expires in 2022 He'll also remain head of the digital payments company square And we have been seeing Twitter shares move in after hours trade as well Brian Yeah let's take a look at some other data We mentioned that we had industrial output a little disappointing in Japan China's manufacturing PMIs are out this morning and they're sent to show the sector stabilized but at a sluggish pace that's barely in expansion in November Let's get details from Bloomberg's Rosalind Chen Bloomberg economics expect an official manufacturing PMI reading of 50.2 in November up from 49.2 in October November manufacturing PMI readings often compare favorably with those of October That's when the national day holiday reduces the number of working days Considering the flattering holiday effect on the November reading failure of the official manufacturing PMI to rise out of contraction would bode poorly for the state of the economy Meanwhile we forecast the official non manufacturing PMI to rise to 52.6 from 52.4 in October The non manufacturing sector probably gained momentum on the following factors A retreat in the delta outbreak a boost from singles day shopping and also more working days relative to October We get the China data at 9 a.m. Beijing time In Hong Kong and Rosalind chin Bloomberg daybreak Asia All right it is 5 minutes past the hour time for global news.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"thomas hayes" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"One million hard copies printed people lined up in the rain to get a bit of history. Bloomberg Stephen Engel has reported now that they're down to a skeleton crew because employees had quite a fear of more arrests and fearing for their Freedom Day two of the trial of several men charged under this China security law as well. U K Prime Minister Boris Johnson today marking the five year anniversary of the vote to Brexit, saying that U K is indeed established its independence from outside influence. US. FBI Director Christopher Wray in front of the Senate Appropriations committed today, says the agency strategy to stop Iran somewhere is working. Europe is getting a fresh warning about safety and getting people vaccinated. The Delta variant spreads UK reports most cases since the start of February in San Francisco. I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg. Alright, Paul back to you. All right, thanks very much. Said we're joined this half hour by Thomas Hayes, his chairman of Great Hill Capital, and Thomas. We did have to catch you off on your thought. A little earlier, you were talking about Alibaba, saying it's down for three key reasons. I wondered if you Care to expand on those? Yes, Chinese stocks at the whole, the whole basket really got hit several months back for a few reasons. First and foremost, was the arcade Goes Family office to Bill Wang Blow up there was an unwind of about 100 billion notional of Chinese stocks. And the ones in his portfolio. Baidu VIP shops Gsx Tencent Music entertainment were hit but also the ones that weren't in his portfolio. Like Baba JD X. Paying the entire group was hit with this unwind, which took many months with the prime brokers unwinding their hedges and their positions. The second thing is obviously the Chinese government regulation and crackdown. We saw $2.8 billion fine. Anti monopoly. Find to Alibaba. We saw a crackdown on the live streamers on the education providers. We saw a delay of the ant financial Ip I P o, uh And then, finally, of course, was inflation fears. So you saw the same with attack and yield sensitive groups in the United States with the 10 year yield went up from 100 basis points to 175 basis points within a period of six weeks earlier in the year. Attack and Chinese tech all sold off because long duration earnings became less valuable with with the fear of a higher discount rate. Now, Alibaba is a unique situation certainly best in class. If you look back since its IPO, it's traded at an average PE of 28 times. If you look forward to next year's earnings, it's trading.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"thomas hayes" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Paul That's right. The last hard copies have rolled off the presses are in residents hands, Bloomberg, Stephen Engel says larger, much larger than normal run. Last circulation of up to a million copies have been distributed in the early hours of this morning. Normally, the daily circulation is about 86,000. So they printed About a million. Yes, Stephen says there have been threats of more arrests, and more employees had resigned for fear of arrest. Stephen says only a skeleton crew there at the end, Another columnist for Apple Daily had been arrested on the national security law. Police only saying. 55 year old man who writes under the name leaping for allegedly colluding with foreign forces to endanger national security Now, Lee writes. Basically, social commentary has been thought of as not one of the most outspoken columnists. Sydney, Australia Looking at another potential lockdown Now Paul is in Sydney. Paul, this is the is the Delta very. And is that right? Yeah, That's right. And that's why people are getting so worried. 31 cases doesn't sound like a lot, but we were at zero for a very long time up until just a few days ago, so there was one particularly chilling story. Of one person who was positive, giving the virus to someone else simply by walking past them in a mall. That moment was captured on CCTV. So it does underscore just how transmissible this is. And the news this morning. We've got the agriculture minister for the state now testing positive the health minister in isolation. So we are anticipating another spike in cases today and the premier Hattiesburg directly and saying Well, lockdown could be on the cards. Yeah, and they're already some measures. Yeah, That's right. Seven local government areas, including the city of Sydney, where the Bloomberg office is and where I live as well not allowed to leave the Metropolitan area states have all slammed their borders shut. The travel bubble between New Zealand and New South Wales has been suspended and it emerged that a traveller from Sydney went to New Zealand and tested positive upon their returns. So New Zealand's covid free status potentially at risk from all of this as well. All right, Paul. Thank you. U. S President Joe Biden Attorney General Merrick Garland are announcing new programs to fight gun violence, Garland says, starting with gun dealers who did not conduct business in a lawful way by failing to conduct required background checks. Falsifying records, failing to respond to trace requests, refusing to permit ATF to conduct inspections or transferring firearms to persons who are prohibited from owning them. And Garland also says a crack down on trafficking with ATF and local government partnerships, President Biden says localities will be able to use money from the American Rescue Plan. Cities experience an increase in gun violence. Able to use the American rescue plan dollars to hire police officers needed for community policing and to pay their overtime. Now, Biden says, mental health issues have to be taken care of. He also says he has not given up on an assault weapon ban. California Secretary of State says the recall election exercise of Governor Gavin Newsom can proceed. This had been expected and more of Aryan Delta Varian who's here. Europe getting a fresh warning about safety and getting people vaccinated as a Delta variant spreads UK reports most cases since the start of February and in the U. S. The state of Missouri has become the canary in the coal mine or if you prefer The crash test dummy for not getting vaccinated, the vaccination rate under 49% and cases jumping as well as hospitalizations and ICU admissions. The the Delta Variant is now dominant scene in 1/5 of US cases in San Francisco. I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg. Brian. All right. Thanks very much. Ed. Eight minutes past the hour. Let's get to our guest. Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital, Thomas. A lot has happened in the past week as it relates to markets Yet we have the Vicks down today to the Mid teens. Is this a time for you to get aggressive or to sort of stick with your knitting? Well, it depends on the sector. Brian what we saw yesterday. Despite all the hawkishness coming from Bullard, Kaplan, Bostick and Rosen Grand Powell is driving the bus and he's got the pedal to the metal. He's basically said Inflation is transitory. Due to basic facts. It's due to short term supply bottlenecks and the downturn disproportionately hurt low wage workers. So what does that mean of the dual mandate, stable prices and full employment? He's going for full employment, and he has perfect cover to do that. Why? Because last year before the pandemic, the unemployment rate was 3.5%. Now it's 5.8% and they're still 9.3 million people Unemployed. But I think Brian to your point with with the S and P up over 90% off of its pandemic close. It's getting harder and harder to find value. So one of the areas that we've been spending a lot of time on in the last few weeks and building up a core position. Believe it or not in Chinese stocks. Mm. So let's let's return to Chinese stocks at the moment. I just want to get your view on the inflation as transitory is enduring because we've got strong and strengthening oil prices, other commodities rising as well. Eventually this is going to feed through the real world prices and potentially sustained inflation. Yeah, I think Well, two things you're seeing a number of commodities did soften in the last month or so, with the grains with copper. To a lesser extent, oil has been the outlier oils and rising. And I think kind of the black Swan that we should be worry of in coming weeks in coming months is the potentiality of an Iran deal that could knock 5 to $10 off off the price of oil. And you're seeing so much optimism in the oil markets right now, you know, two of our biggest picks last year when no one wanted them. We were going in for banks, which was Wells Fargo. The dirty A shirt in the bunch. And we were going for ExxonMobil because we wanted to stay up high on the quality ladder. And now that these names and these groups are up, you know 75 101 150% in some cases in the cyclicals. Everyone has been forced in. Everyone's excited with oil. Now at $73 a barrel everyone's looking for 100, and I think that's kind of the black Swan that leads us to focus. Coupled with Powell's dovishness to focus on those yields sensitive sectors that have been hit this year and have underperformed this year and we've been trimming back on some of our cyclicals as we've made that move in recent weeks. Quick taster here on your comment about China stocks. You like Alibaba? It's down a lot. Yes. Yeah. I mean, you've seen.