1 Episode results for "Thirtyseven"

Do you need to be popular to win an election?

RNZ: The Detail

20:56 min | 1 year ago

Do you need to be popular to win an election?

"You oughta i'm alex ashton in this is the detail how popular do you need to be to win an election today will look at that christian specifically in relation to simon bridges at the helm of the national no posse new zealand has delivered at vetik tom simon bridges and it doesn't get much less under his leadership national isn't a title spin the party's popularity nosediving to recode low in elijah's new breed research poll ended hayes no pissed and apology made who is is judas colin early onset who could they then you joan cake in new zealand boston christopher like the cable consideration anchovy things are the what's my family we'll disorders that now is the right time for me to step aside from the leadership of the national party english resigning as national leader and be very last year ending shortlived run as leader your position and leaving a leadership get a sports fan you blood to see the party through the knicks selection and it's all going well put them back in the driving seat five people put their hands up and the winner initial potty the by late move to at least three things you will hold the government to account will support the things we think tighten your country food that makes me a different set of providing opportunity for new zealand they're more opposed the things that we think demille seeing a street warsaw a in in the worst cases going because they acknowledgement relate from his caucus dates times are a changing james patterson is ahrends is political leaders have that there are big issues including the likes of climate change inequality reporting by the housing market is that maybe a younger face with nato president those interests and those issues to elite truck now so he did come what i am history of being i see any a cabinet minister a very senior cabinet minister and the k in english administrations so he had the credibility of heaven bain any executive of having saying how things around so he would have been saying is a good combination of those two things going it's been as a former politically who now reports are indeed indeed take that long sing simon bridge is as probably their parents so there is not quite surprised when he took i took over in a field goal position in simon purchase stuffing so now he's a he's a popular whipping boy the moment he still held the party in the early to mid forties by most of the polls and throughout this conversation we have to acknowledge that we don't poll as often as we used to it so it is a bit hotter gauge because the media companies retreated from there but largely he's held the party in the early to mid forties in there isn't a bad position for an opposition position to be in against an extremely popular prime minister said he took the at around that level remain the nationals election result was forty four point four on election night end you confined the poll the coma brunson poll not long ago i had forty four so if you look at it from the glass half full view from national he's tunnel right at holding the way he took over could national win with a late at his preferred prime minister rankings five percent does it mess and that much you could end no it doesn't end the famous example people give is jimbo who was in a very popular personally but one three elections for the national party in sometimes he was out polled by winston pizzas who of course his even pay at the time he was the judas collins of today if you like in that they wasn't even pay more popular than the leader we don't vote and everyone knows this is going to a polling booth we don't vote for who would you like to be the prime minister and then the polling that we do you always see a massive gap between the prime minister of the dion who we have a deal position leader is with a few exceptions and those exceptions obscene the tides going out on the government and you have a popular opposition leader who's taking over you saw that would joined key as he came in in the toronto detailing hockey is quite high in the personal popularity steaks and then when she was about to to win against bill english but traditionally the leader of the opposition sit anywhere between five about twelve percent so yep it's ugly number sonnenburg just to be at war for five the scene but it's not fight for them when you first became leader you rocketed from one to change it up the twelve you entertain and then you've just been going incrementally down steven steven six so far the country doesn't like simon bridges and he's taking the national passing down weapon why is it so look at him or is this the leader of the opposition of fixed thing kicking is just more strongly the modern idle think there's a bit of that but you have to also she on some of the blame them i don't think that he's connecting in many ways a as a leader in as a politician that a lot of that is style a communication the way why that he's engaged with elite to or not the way he's picked issues and he's been valid criticism about the ones that he's top to run with slushies anyone 'em you know things like that you're spending too much on a particular drink device in a prison or something should be lift properly to a correction spokesman says the potty robyn picked up by the leader having said that he he very hot on the budget leagues and and drive that from a leadership perspective but you know so there are valid criticisms of his style in he's going up against someone i don't think we've had a prime minister with the international recognition of descend out in politicians in australia titan art it is possible to be liked just look at the news new zealand pm i'm just seeing other the prime minister's handling of the christ church terrorist attack as go they thumbs up from voters according to latest one is called my brother impulse that helps bridges is no i do but does he need to be there is something that straight adjusts be in their minds around waters that 'em does he not smart enough jesse small too often are we picking the right shoes are we doing the right messages because of course now just know what you're mainstream media but you have social media as well so these opposition leaders in prime minister minister so if you have a good social media game because that is such a director each just so many marshes so look i think by all accounts and making fake the nation and partying pays say these starting to keep from nearby as the public is not willing to muster purchase now he is a very had wicca hey seriously puts the time and so it really comes to the measure of the personality in the credibility when people look him at two ways about can we see a future prime minister with the public of a you know have a big shift and go from kona disliking someone to to backing someone look we do and i think we're talking about here and they also see other day actually about that i'm opposition leader coming through in becoming popular prime ministers in helen clot timmy stands out is one of those in an open session she had terrible favorability rice in a very very long those who were around at the time would remain but she had quite a makeover now not just a physical makeup media training and teams of smiling end presenting a much warmer face now when she did on keep into the possession of prime minister she was a popular prime minister he'd good fiber obliteration in a lot of that comes almost to what's the matter off the job so once people see you in there as prime minister they see you gladhanding with will latest they see you making announcements they see you you know steering the ship often they will shift people's views and think actually done a pretty good job if there was to be a challenge tomorrow who do you think would put their hands up from within the current national policy and what would the chances but i think it's really anita this colin's let's not mess around in my view it students colin three and i think national in pays now that she's gone a couple of times thoughts i mean you know she's not terribly popular in in the potty 'em but i think it would be a recognition that she's the only one who could do as good if not beat a jolt then sonnen bridges i'm just doing my job and i think that say these things me to do my job stay focused and not get all excited about power for sort of a leader some which is well every leaders defense and he certainly has appreciate the work then i think doing and i think that's a or i can ask how would you describe his leadership attributes well i think around giving points the outside of teens to latest ad that is not my my role is to get on and do my job and that's what i did it but if it could be something you could do what what what what friendly's as rapists double and a very approachable i mean in my view national wouldn't be electing someone might think it's gonna be prime minister you know that might sound a strange thing to say they are gonna be electing the person i think can get as many party folks in twenty twenty as possible if you look back the leadership team does in the country is down to what some bridges one the leadership was amy adams civils judas columns that was stephen joyce in mock much show now stephen joyce heads of course gone amy adams has signaled that she will guard a mock much of his leadership impression he's keeping them very very quiet but i don't know how much support within the caucus says for him surreally leaves judas columns and teams of costa pays the last election now she is really diani critical nine at the moment but the caucuses a stock really aren't wouldn't describe it is completely broad support and confidence and simon bridges their pockets but then that cool casella very unhappy about the leadership on hippie or they worried about let's suppose might start to drop back end of course he does have a sold out crowd of supporters but we're he's about stock and that we the caucuses with the stock as there's no one that really they say wholeheartedly spending you laid out now just collins's who nyman sees me out there there is still a large amount of distrust among some of the caucus about month columns to support maybe consolidation but i certainly certainly donkey the scenes that there's enough support theater in store here and later that says she came to heat at the moment i rican he will be gone a fifty fifty shot at being be in the twenty twenty election the question is can anyone else do we need data if you look at like a share price right national see a process at forty four scenes and 'cause that's is polarizing would you pitched a m the chief executive chairman if you long run average of this shave who's sitting on forty forty one 'cause that's a pretty good school i mean the nationals forty for the moment what light of getting the last election thirtyseven pacino right it's it's it's not a bad number for them to be so that's on his side the mitigating factor is if people decide the national can't when i think going into the twenty twenty election campaign you could see a real emerging support haven't been languishing to national ended up with twenty one percent of the vote because they want this oughta national can't when the votes on the stream at people you're not a future in these youngsters that could happen disarming produced in twenty twenty that is nationals greatest fear the may also be a thorn in the caucus that look little go through the twenty twenty election they see how he guys 'em but many pay starting hit the patience of age to play the long game and also remember that if the party's voyage rejoices significantly anthony selection seeing a lot of easy pay the going if you're lifting pay you can't rely on you strings of another truck vouch ending denise question is is he going to improve their voters will cain someone else to us last night exactly seven years to the day has appointments in new zealand ceo was announced christopher locks and regulation from liberal went public let's talk politics has here i mean hey an eye planning to diet member all the policy is not just what you're reading there's no deal there's no firm off the plan that supplied there is is frankly me sitting there saying look i'm forty eight years all of lives sixteen years i face 'em i love solving problems on realizing opportunities strict paypal a one of the things that are will consider when i finished anything wind up being a few years as as politics so i guess then you elephant in the with national leadership is christopher luck some do you see anything that is is he likely the jump on ship and if so do you think he would even have leadership ambition look i think with the signs of the year for him absolutely to joined the national policy say the timing of his departure from in new zealand he'll be fray around september tiber wien they national party and other parties will be starting to look at cain is a safe so the general election he comes he has a good business background he comes is from you know in new zealand spot grumbles about regional fees and that sort of thing you know i think as as a respected company so i think that he would set the national passy brand very very well end i think of still like some at the time at which he may say he's came to joined in a room would be made a major on the left or another literate and of course we have totally instead of not come up free with amy adams end ellis the costa passing in the night will be many more to it before the election so there might be some nice prom national party electric be at the potty poured could say that he would not say well i think it's very interesting and i think he's a personal of real substance i mean you don't get to become chief executive of union leader which he balls before a huge multi national company and being incredibly successful at in new zealand without some months and i interviewed him at some length of the listener a number of years ago and being a number of hours with him in kind of why thinking he's got a bit of the joan k about him in that he couldn't explain complex business 'em problems and issues and details in a way that is a very reliable and he's a very good communicator and he's very successful person and i did wonder at the time instant card rush kickback 'em that that you know pepsi would be interested in standing for politics and i think for the blue team 'em and so i think that's pretty interesting and i wouldn't mind being that he he'll have a shorter you have a crack house food like british when he said i would think so i mean you know the guys lacy in new zealand then come out and floated the idea of politics at least he really get some soundings that he's you know not welcome in he hasn't had does in fact quite the opposite i would think that some he'd be buying up between between t you know to get in before that 'em impulsively in robotics is one of those nationally piece of standing down a little will get a high list place and you know what about his role within the government at the moment though i sitting in the business council and also his relationship with just a day and he's described as a friend is that gonna be an issue for no not at all i mean you you don't brash came in in two thousand and two no matter what you think of don't brashly neighbors the reserve bank governor as reserve bank had a very close relationship proficiently would michael kohn the findings minnesota helen clock on the prime minister that the die put his hand up nato changed and i and i was more selena means in terms of the the combat of politics but i don't think that has a close relationship with just end up doing it's a professional one is is gonna have any a mitigating factor on on on him wanting to confront given the dominance that just in a dude has entail likable she is internationally as well what is national need it later do they need someone come promoted just underwritten did they need something completely different how can they take the like that it's a really good question i don't think anyone ultimately has iansa they the trip at some political parties fall into is trying to emulate the popular prime minister all the time like the fell trey jones cables likable relaxed and sort of every a die guide you could sort of imagine yourself having a beer would end a lie about opted for david sheera who they felt was assigned number one of and coming up to me and saying we got on the front of the magazine you know so cool reliable but in in the public when we've got one of these guys we we don't need a large fish and if you live in so you can fall into that trap of trying to emulate a the person that you've got the mine and i think the national end particularly on bridges can compete on popularity but just cinder ideas of what my point is is that you can have a leader who doesn't see the world on fire and still have apparently brains that people trust enough andy compensate people trust enough to vote for sufficient numbers and i think that's what national has to has to compete on that compete on competency not popularity and so given that do you think it's likely that we would say something like why haven't lost election last minute leadership change look on tapping out you've gotta be the show you take the ryan's my mom would say that it is possible and that goes back to my scenario about you know the the wheels really for unlawful campaign could happen disarming bridges die court decide look let's pull up like i don't think that is is likely into one 'em i just don't think the last minute changes something you going just going to say there it's a different scenario in with a very long a government that governor in nine years and so the high state with very dry win the match was flipped into it in the match with just end up doing end that thing took off but it's different this time out you know this is if this team in a position where i think they might just be spurs you know so i don't see a night chain scenario national this time see it but but the reality is if you look at numbers and you compete at the historic play ball trick clock people being over this period in time i got we do i understand that overall the severe named paul and what about him because i guess is a politician you develop a pretty thick skin but it must be gration constantly hearing in the media how unlike to our and how unpopular you hours later just he won't just keep sticking this out if his pistol numbers don't improve how like states why it's called the hottest in toughest job and politics the job of the opposition leader as very difficult you do seem to attract the most pressure and teams have maybe speak elation and teams of if you're uncouth cuss studying agitates which often an open session we live in we sing it a game with national you have to have the hide ever rhinoceros muffin marketing pays in just think while the patient you've taken this week as as it's really really tough now there is a different story of the history public scrutiny of that later andy performance because that is why these you know diet viet to potentially when the when the votes of the of the public so it is absolutely appropriate for a common trait to pay about his engagement what's the public has walkability end throughout xp many other jobs others in politics we at your personality in july 'em engagement in in that sort of thing and you'll south aside directly challenged really end in talked about signed much that's the details but today on lx ashton the detail is brought to you by newsroom don't courage or indeed

alex ashton tom simon bridges elijah hayes boston twenty one percent forty eight years twelve percent sixteen years five percent seven years nine years