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July Mailbag with Jason Moser
"The. Multiple answers I'm out Southwick and I'm joined, is always by broke camp. Personal Finance expert here at the Motley Fool. Hey, BRO, well! Hello Alison. It's the July mailbag where we answer your questions and this month it's with the help of multiple analyst Jason Moser. Should you buy a house now? What is modern portfolio theory and also here Jason's thoughts on a lot of stocks all that and more on this week's episode of Molly fully answers. Jason thanks coming back. you know I mean i. told you you invite me. I'M GONNA. Be here every single time. Thanks for having me back. I mean we appreciate it because we know you're a busy man, and so we do appreciate that you carve out time for us in our little show, don't. Always always make time for those important people in my life rule number one make time for allison and Bro I love. It sounds like a good one to me. Everybody wins. All right well, I guess we should just get into it, so the first question comes from Darren I've subscribed to the full for over a year and I'm really pleased with the service. I would like to know your thoughts about my holdings in Shop Affi- I've bought several times over the last three years, and it's now over thirty five percent of my portfolio and I. Don't know if I should continue holding or trimmed down. What would you advise a good problem to have I was gonna say that exact same thing? That's a good problem have? In a very glad, you have subscribed to our services in your really pleased. That's that's what we aim to to do. We aim to please help you make money and so yeah. This is one of those situations that we will find ourselves in from time to time as investors. A nice problem to have but something you do need to address at some point because it is going to be a little bit different for everybody. In so coming from the perspective of I, also own shop, a Fi stock in it's it's a wonderful investment. It certainly is taking up a bigger. Part of my portfolio a not at thirty five percent where you are. I think for me. It really does boil down to. That sleeping at night test in other words, you need to be able to go to sleep at night without worrying about this kind of stuff, and if you feel like shop, a Fi represents too much. Of your portfolio if you feel like you're overly allocated their, then, you may need to consider pulling it back a little, but now I mean it's. It's I think it's always important. Note you know. It's a big difference between building up a position buying a position to make this size to make this type of allocation in your portfolio. It's another thing entirely to have position grow into beat into becoming that size i. mean that that is that is in a little bit of a different dynamic there, so people all the different ways, some sometimes folks will, they will just sort of looking at it from the house money, concept or you. You just sell enough shares to recoup your initial investment, and then you let the rest of it go. Some people are perfectly fine with thirty five percent. Some people are not. They want a pair back so i. do think you need to kind of figure out what helps you sleep at night I do think that shop by a great business. I think the biggest risk in only shop, if I right now is valuation, just because it's dominating, it's space, but it's not making any money yet, and it's probably going to be a little while until they do so that valuation risk is there, but ultimately yeah I think determine. Where you feel most comfortable with it, and if you feel like you need to put a little bit of that money off the table, and he thirty five percents a lot, certainly very understandable. If they've said something you need to do if you do decide to pair it back a little bit. You've made multiple purchases, so you can identify the shares to sell to manage the tax consequence if this isn't a brokerage account and not an IRA. All right next question comes from Steven. If you are forced into unemployment, you are paying federal income taxes on unemployment payments are not contributing to social security nor to Medicare. How does this affect your future calculation of social security benefits and can one contribute to the social security fund during unemployment to mitigate any adverse effects on benefits, it is a little bit adding insult to injury, but you do owe federal income taxes on your unemployment benefits, and if your state charges has a state income tax, you probably have to pay state tax on that, although there are a handful of states that exempt unemployment benefits, so that's good news. And by the way you, you could have taxes withheld from your unemployment benefits you file. This form called form w four V. if you want, they withhold ten percent, or you can do quarterly estimated payments if you wanNA avoid that big tax bill at the end of the year, but if you're strapped for cash is probably just better to get the money now worried about your taxes later Eh. Stephen notes out. You do not pay payroll taxes. Those are the things that go into social security and Medicare so. So. It could result in a lower social security benefit, however, keep in mind that social security is based on your thirty five highest earning years, so if you enter the workforce at say twenty two and you work until you're mid to late sixties. That's more than forty years where the working so hopefully. If you miss out, if this year is not so good somewhere among those other forty, five or so years, you've had thirty five really good year so that this year won't be that big of a deal. So it probably will be okay. And then to address the last question. Unfortunately, no, you cannot make voluntary contributions to social security. There is at least one academic working paper out there. That suggested that people could buy into social security by like extra credits as opposed to contributing to your 401k, but so far that has not been passed by Congress I had an ex. Question comes from Sam. I heard to stocks discussed on another full podcast. When I read articles about them, it mentions they are thinly traded. I have two questions one I'm sure my position would still be quite small so I think I'd still be able to get in and out, but are there other things I should think about when it's a thinly traded stock and question number two. Is there a certain amount of? Daily volume you like to look for when considering a stock foreign investment. What volume do you want to see to not be? Quote thinly traded stock. Yes very good question in thinly traded stock just refers to the either the amount of shares or the dollar volume of shares that would trade on any given. Market Day and so. The. Thinly traded stock. The the problem is that you may not necessarily able to buy and or sell at the prices. You necessarily think you might be able to in other words when you look at a stock's price and you're looking through the. What what's going on throughout the day on the market, you'll see that did ask spread, which is essentially the bid. Ask spread is it's what someone's willing to pay for the stock versus what someone is asking to be paid for the stock? Because you know you have a buyer and a seller on on in every transaction they're. Normally most cases, these business business bread is very tiny, the couple of pennies maybe for most stocks because they're. They're heavily traded right there. There are plenty of dollar volume. But there are a lot of smaller companies small caps in particular in in you know a micro cap, specifically that don't necessarily meet these kinds of thresholds, and so you definitely have to be aware of that now I'll go back in time just a little bit, too. When we were running the service here at the fool called million dollar portfolios Roman Romani portfolio that we help manage members, and it was never really a problem, but we did have a condition in there. We were always looking for at least ten million dollars in average. Trading volume total daily volume now understand I'm not saying the number of shares saying the amount of money so basically shares times price, but we're always looking for at least ten million dollars. That wasn't set in stone it. It was an idea for us. It wasn't ever really a problem because we had a very diversified portfolio with a number of different types of companies, but when you're looking for smaller companies, you would've just keep that in mind that did ask. Spread is is something that just because it says the stock is twenty dollars. That doesn't necessarily mean you'll pay twenty dollars if there is a a big spread there between the bid, and the ask in so I think whenever you're considering stocks that have any lighter trading volume or thinly traded stock. Just be sure to use limit orders. Limit Orders of let us stipulate the price that you are willing to pay for or that you're willing to. To accept a if you're selling a limit, order is just a really good way to protect yourself from any unwanted surprise thinly traded stocks. You might not always necessarily get them when you want them, so you might have to lead that limited are in there for a little while, but but a limit order is a great way to protect you from any unwanted surprises. Next question comes from Randall. I'm in my late thirties now, but earlier in my life. I was very very bad with my money. Collection Calls Welfare and bankruptcy or not strangers to me. I've been at the bottom then I met the love of my life, and she convinced me to turn things around ten, and a half years later and I have done a complete one eighty, I took control of our finances rebuilt my credit and started investing and listening to all you find folks all. I opened it investing account with the goal of saving and building enough a down payment on a home. I'm happy to say we've now reached that goal. I recently sold at a profit because I didn't want that. Money tied up in the market. If we are close to needing it for a house, but now that we're here, I'm not sure what to do. We currently rent a basement apartment and our neighbors general living situation are less than ideal to put it mildly. So, we're champing at the bit to jump into the housing market that being said the experts have been calling for a drop in the housing market for a while, and that was before the pandemic hit now I'm worried that if we buy right away a year or two or three from now, interest rates will spike, and we could be put in a difficult situation. I live near Toronto. Canada or the housing market is already highly inflated in relation to the rest of the country should I be worried? While Randall first of all congrats on turning your financial life around love hearing success stories like that so good job on that. So I'll start with my standard answer with the rent versus buy decision, and that is just pull up spreadsheet and compare the all in cost of renting, including what you could earn on the money that use for down payment versus the all in cost of buying including the opportunity cost of putting down payment as opposed to having invested as well as insurance and taxes and maintenance, and all that stuff and project, where you might be in five to ten years based on various scenarios on what happens to stocks, if you. Rent an invest the down payment versus what happens to? What you'd look like depending on where home prices go. Generally speaking. If mortgage rates go up, that could way down on real estate prices we did see mortgage rates. Go Up for a bit a few years ago, but the housing market did find, but you could certainly envision a scenario where rates went much much higher, making houses, much less affordable and prices would have to adjust. But I don't expect that to happen anytime soon. I think we're. GonNa have low rates for awhile, but beyond that I don't know I've given up trying to predict where interest rates are going or even paying attention to people who try to predict where interest rates are going, so who knows? That said since you live in Canada. I thought I'd check. In where rates are these days and I and I got a brief reminder that things are actually different in Canada so I did a little bit of research. And then realize I had reach out to someone who knows, I reached out to Canadian Motley fool analysts Jim Gillies, and he had some thoughts so first of all just for you non-canadians out there. It is really different so in America. We get this thirty year mortgage than we have the same payment for thirty years. It's fixed. They don't have that in Canada. What's the most common is a twenty five year? But only the first few years or fixed. And then adjusts so in that context you can understand why Randall is worried about interest rates going up because over the next depending on which alone he gets the most popular is a five year fixed, and then you basically have to go get a new loan probably. So that put that in context, a little more, but also Toronto, really is crazy expensive. Vs from the end of last year that put it as the most overvalued real estate market in the world behind Munich. As Jim pointed out in our call here in the US we had our housing peak in two, thousand, six, two, thousand seven, and then we had what he called a reset, which is basically prices came down significantly candidate and have that slight downturn at home prices, but then they just kept on going up, so it really is different there, so when Jim explain all this to me, the difference in mortgages and the difference in home prices. Frankly he was inclined to say to this guy. You Might WanNa rent for while more and see what happens, but he also had the good advice of okay. What if you buy in prices? Come Down Fifteen percent twenty percent. What if they come down to a point where he upside down? You owe more than the home is worth. Are you okay with that? If. You're okay with that. Maybe it's okay to do that. But it certainly sounds like dicey situation than if someone were telling me like I'm thinking of do this in Dubuque Iowa or something like that. couple of other differences. In case you're curious about Canada in the US. Your mortgage is portable in Canada south. You Buy A. Get the five year mortgage, but then move get to take the mortgage with you for the next house and interest is not tax deductible. US Look at you, Robert, broke? Camp Can Canadian real estate experts there you go. Next! Question comes from Chris. I was on twitter the other day and saw that one of your contributors Brian Feroldi tweeted that he doesn't believe in a long list of technical trading terms and then modern portfolio theory. Can you help me understand what not believing an MP? T with mean this? He believed that diversification doesn't reduce risk. Also every financial adviser I've ever talked to his preached empty, so I would love to hear the counterargument. Jason you're not Brian for all the. Question I am not Brian for all the do get the talk of Brian Pretty good bit though. I I must admit I. Don't know what he said here in regard to modern portfolio theory and all of these technical trading arms. But I think I can take a guess. Generally speaking I agree with them, and I think you could sit there and look up the portfolio theory in you know read about it as much as you want. Just go to google modern portfolio theory, and you can dig right in there, but in a nutshell ultimately, what modern portfolio theory is the intention behind it? It's meant to reduce risk while maximizing returns. It assumes that investors don't like risk. They prefer less risky portfolios to riskier ones in order to achieve a certain level of return so right there. I kind of kind of lost me right there because I don't believe that every ever investors risk averse I think some investors have a very. Healthy, appetite for risk, and frankly I would say I got a pretty high tolerance for risk when it comes to investing, made it just because of what I do for a living but I. You know to me I like having that trade off least unhappy. Happy to take some risks there. If I feel like that upside, it's going to be potentially worth. So with modern portfolio theory, it introduces a lot of fancy math in the form of variances and correlations in order to come up with this. Quantifiable, investing strategy that ultimately helps reduce risk while allowing the investor to achieve. Certain returns in. Maybe it works for some not I'm not dismissing it personally I. Don't use it, I don't personally subscribe to it I. Don't need it. I think honestly for us. In a really believe it's extends to to most people in our full universe is that is individual investors I think a more meaningful way to reduce risk. is to just extend your timeline like invest longer. So like Tom Gardner said a number of years back when we were. Working on Motley, fool one basically take your take the time line that you think you want to own any individual stocks you buy shares of starbucks and I plan on owning it for you know five years. Okay, we'll just double it. Cloning it for ten in all of a sudden right there. You've given yourself more time. Time is one of the big advantages we have is individual investors. Money managers don't have that advantage, Wall Street done generally handed abandoned, either, but if you can be patient and just invest in good businesses. That risk really starts to come down over time. There are plenty of studies out there. That show that risk comes down the longer you hold onto those stocks, which into me, just renders modern portfolio, theory, more or less not useful mean on things, not useful for everybody, but it's not useful for me and based on Chris. Question It sounds like a agree with what Brian was saying there. We think I'll add to. That is I agree that risk is really not that much of a consideration if you are saving for retirement. But once you are in retirement man, and just say like you know what the market's not I'm going to extend my time highs in ten years. Because you need to spend money in that situation, I think diversification is important. It's important to have assets that don't always move the same direction at the same time. For some fools. That's just as simple as keeping any money need the next five years in cash, so you're right out any ups and downs, and that can be fine. But I. do think it makes sense to have. A mix of investment so that right now, technology stocks are doing very well, and we hope that continues to do well, but we remember was that happened in two thousand from two thousand to two, and there were down for quite a while anyone who retired in one, thousand, nine, hundred nine, or so it was very happy to have some small caps value maybe a. A little international, some reits to ride out the storm Yeah I think we talk about that often like recognizing where you are as an investor in life, are you in the grow your wealth stage, or are you in the protector stage, because they are two very different strategies, and we're all hopefully going to be in both of them at one point or another right? I personally and still on the grow your wealth stage I. Think we all probably are, but you will at some point get to where you need to focus on protecting the wealth that you've made so that you can then have that money to spend, and that definitely will dictate your investment strategy things that you're invested in and whatnot. Generally speaking I do like the idea for people who are just risk averse and have this notion that investing is just too risky. I mean the fact of the matter is not investing as far away greater risk like not investing. You will never grow your money if you don't the best, so if if if risk is a problem, I think generally speaking. Along the lines of diversification idea that that bros. talking about him, he just invest in invest in SNP index fund is something that just follows the progress and p. you know you're going to be participating in and if you look at that over the over the stretch of time, their five ten twenty thirty years, I mean that trend does go one way. It, but clearly the older you get, the more you need to start focusing on protecting your wealth, and that will change the way you view things. Right next question comes from Alex from Alexandria if I buy Muny bonds from another state in my IRA. Is it still taxable and Alexander with who we have a bond on and we do have a bunch. I know Alex up super excited about having a bunch on in Alexandria to I can't believe I haven't been there. It's like two miles from my house, but we still haven't been oh i. know because there's a global pandemic going on and we. saw. Alyx if we buy me bonds from another state in my IRA is still taxable. Bro, help him out or her or so Muny Barnes. People Invest Immunity bonds because they're free of federal taxes and in many cases. If you're buying bonds issued by the place you live, they might be free of state and local taxes, so that can be doubly triply tax free. That's why people buy 'em. There are some times, however that if you own immune, abound outside of an IRA. Pay Taxes and this surprises some people. There's something called the minimum tax. If you buy immunity bond at a discount, and then it matures at par. If you buy a distress, Muny bond for like you put an eight thousand dollars, and you sell it later for ten thousand dollars as a capital gain. You'll be taxed on that. So, there are some times when you would pay taxes on media. Now, Alex is asking what if it's an IRA? Do I have to worry about paying tax interest. If it comes from another state and the answer is no, you won't have to worry about that. The only thing I would say is. Generally speaking immune bond already has built in tax advantages, so you wouldn't keep it in an IRA, unless there's the example of the stuff I was saying previously like for. It's one of those exceptions when him UNIBOND would result in taxes than you might WanNa keep it an IRA, but generally speaking. If you're going to buy Muny Bond, keep it out of an IRA. Next question comes from Boone. I just did my first. Roth conversion and looked at that old account for the first time in. There was the expected dividend producing fund I remembered, but there was a stock chesapeake energy that I had completely forgotten about since I purchased the stock in two thousand, six fifteen. It's down way down like eight point five percent off the purchase price. What should I do with it now? It's in a tax deferred accounts so I. Don't think the loss is realized until I. Start to pull money out of the account and that might not. Not Be for fifteen years current value of all my shares will be about one percent of the value of the account after the conversion. Do I sell in the very little value? I had left and depend on E. Trade to keep up with lost for me or should I hold on based on the slim chance. The stock will be worth more in the next ten years. Oil Stocks do act unusually on occasion, only oil stocks. Stock everything else makes that usually. Chesapeake has been really. Interesting Story to follow and frankly. I don't I. Don't know that I would look at it today. As a business that I'd WANNA own so typically if I. You know I think it was yet idea. Didn't sound like a position are actively building united investment didn't work out. I mean that that happens to all of us. We don't get them all right. We have a philosophy here at the full. A lot of do we like to? Water flowers and pull the weeds, and that's just a nice way of saying. Add to our winners in to get rid of losers in. This I think is more than likely slated to continue being a loser I mean. Chesapeake has lost a lot of value. In it does sound like based on when you purchased this, these is absolutely busted I mean. There there are all sorts of reasons to sell one of them is if you thesis busted and the reason why you invest in the company is is no longer the case, and I would he probably is the case with Chesapeake so to me like you know, you could sit there and let it go, but but what's the goal trying to get back to even, or are you trying to get back a couple of bucks for me a lot of times? I'll I'll take a little opportunity here and there to just go ahead and pull those weeds sell it. Be Done with it. In even though it's just unique out a little bit value there, you can still take that money and do something more productive with it. So. Yeah T to me. I can't tell you to buy or sell obviously, but I can certainly understand. Selling in this case, but I you know. As as oil and natural gas energy can can turn around. This is going to be one that has a lot of headwinds in in. You might be waiting a very long time to to get any of this money back. I point out here that I it seems that maybe boone has a slight misunderstanding of how taxes in aries work because he talked about realizing the loss when he takes the money out and trade keeping track of the loss for him, it sounds to me that he thinks that he can write the loss off whence he takes the money out. That may not be the case, but just to be clear. One of the great benefits of an IRA is you don't pay taxes on the gains, interest and dividends from year to year. But. One of the drawbacks is. You can't take a capital loss on that as well so there's really no no way to benefit on your tax return from this loss. Next question comes from Benjamin. You recommend seeing a fee. Only financial adviser for check in every so often I know there is the Garrett planning network and others to help find an advisor. But what questions do you ask? And what answers do you listen for when trying to find one that is worth his or her one hundred fifty to two hundred fifty per hour. So I would say start first with asking yourself some questions. What are you looking for? You could go for the whole launch. Lada where someone is managing your money analyzing retirement plan helping new save and a five twenty nine. Maybe even doing your taxes with some financial planners do help with the state planning, or are you looking for something more targeted? You just want advice about am I saving enough for retirement, or are you close to retirement? You're like I just WanNa make sure that I'm doing right when terms like choosing my Medicare plan and claiming social security at the right time, so first of all just be very clear of what you're looking for. Then if it involves investments in any way, you WanNa, make sure that you find someone who is at least in the general same area philosophically and I say this, because many financial planners are hardcore index. And if you come to them as a motley fool, listener member with a lot of individual stocks. They may say okay. I'll give you some general asset allocation guidance, or they'll say I don't care if you like to pick. Stocks are not my advises, sell the stocks and go to index funds, so you want to make sure that if you're gonNA, ask for any sort of investment. Advice that you wanna find someone who's someone somewhat at least aligned for what you're looking for. Once, you've got that then. Just asked some of the typical stuff. You might expect so credentials certified financial planner. Are they a CPA either their personal financial specialist. How long they've been in the business. There are lots of people who. have not been in the business very long. Even though they're not young people, a lot of people choose financial planning as a second career, which I think is great, but just because someone may be look like they're in their forties or fifties. Sixties doesn't mean they've been in the business that long, and you WANNA. See if they've worked with someone like you right so if you have. Maybe. You have a large amount of wealth large income huge portfolio. You WanNa make sure that they have experienced with dealing with those issues, but on the flip side to if if you have, are you know middle income, decent size portfolio, but nothing too complicated. You don't WanNa. Go to someone who's used to dealing with someone who's wealthier partially because those people charge a lot more. You want to find someone who's kind of a little more lined up with what you're doing. Then make appointments with three folks. All of them will do get do free. Get acquainted means, and you're just looking for someone who you feel comfortable with. Since, you mentioned Garrett Big Fan of the Gary Planning Network and other is is not for the National Association of Personal Financial Advisers. But Garrett on their website has a how to choose an adviser section. Just Google attitude visor Garrett Planet Network has a great chapter from a dummies book that they wrote about how to choose adviser, and they have a good questionnaire that you can print out in US asking lots of good questions of financial planner. It's tough. Choosing a financial planner like my mom just went through that Bro! Is You know and she didn't really have a lot of options in Boise Idaho. Maybe two and one of them, she I never called her back, and never got back her, and the other one was just so busy just so busy, and just she just never. It's it can be rough. Finding a financial planner can be I. Think what we'll see is one of the consequences of this. Of the coronavirus pandemic. Just, like we are all used to working from home, many financial advisors and financial planners an now working from home. So in what they're doing is they're becoming licensed in more states. So, if you are more comfortable, working with someone over zoom remotely I think you don't have to stick with someone in your area. You can go beyond your locations, but you know some people don't feel comfortable that if if they're going to have someone managing their life savings, they want to be able to meet them in person. That's just a personal choice. All right next question comes from twitter. Is that right from sully what I hear? Okay? I just listened to the episode mentioning Your Weakness Two. Shopping carts and Tj, Maxx that me or you Jason. Accused me. Thoughts on the stock. If I had a war on Amazon, basket would be Costco TJ maxx Home Depot tractor supply. What would be your basket against online retail? That's funny. Well okay, listen I wouldn't have basket against online retail, because online retails where it's at. The whole idea. The whole idea behind the basket approaches to find a long term trend that you feel like the world is headed toward and so the war on cash basket, for example that was always one about people using cash war, traffic payments now with that said I get the spirit of the question some going to answer it because I do like some of these ideas. And I I would definitely include Costco in their in Home Depot's well. Home Depot gets a lot of my money. Doesn't, but they have a very loyal fan base of customers that just are happy to renew year in year out. So I love those membership models there, so costco and a Home Depot for sure you know I'm going to give a little shout at my wife Robin I. Know that she would approve of my adding target to the mixer. She hasn't been raving about targets APP and ordering on the APP the able to go to the store. Just pick it up right there I've talked with Ron Gross on more than one occasion about target and how this really has. Become a twenty first century resale right they're doing. They're doing everything online and in physical stores. What they call Alma Channel and then my fourth and I'm GONNA. Take this. You probably aren't expecting this when Alison. I'm GonNa Shock and all you. I'm ready. I'm ready Alta. We're going. Make up my I know my daughter's love. It ugly ugly Mug like this. What do I know about makeup? Tell you what. Get! A House with two daughters and a wife. That's what I know about make. There's a lot of it in an Ulta is a really really good business. They actually have a very nice diversified revenue stream. They've got the salon a`dynamic of the business which encourages people to go there they do have an online business. They have an augmented reality function there at where you can actually like. Try things on makeup to see how it looks. Mary Dillon just a phenomenal other adults of that's my fourth, their Ulta but they I appreciate the spirit of the question I like the idea I'm not saying this is the basket. I'm not tracking this basket in a not a not backing this basket, but in the spirit of the question if I had to develop. A basket, such as this one I think it'd go with those four. Yeah, I mean I guess you just have to think about what retail out there is something that you would still physically go to. Because the actual retail experience is being in the space is the experience and what you're there for? And I know I mean before Corona virus we I would go to target and just just couldn't believe how much money I had spent from walking through a few of the aisles. TJ Max is just a phenomenal business I mean what they've done through the years. Is really capitalized on the nature of the business, the advantage they have in that treasure hunt kind of nature like you go to TJ Max, maybe not necessarily looking for something, and then you end up finding a lot of things, and it can be a little bit lumping at times, but but generally speaking like management's a very good job of running that business, and they know how to exploit the advantage of experience. I think they're online game. Though I think they could probably get something going with online, and they just have not have not yet and so I. Haven't since Corona Virus for example. I haven't spent a single dollar there, but I continue to still shop at. Home Depot I. Think Yeah! We still shopping at home depot because we're doing. You know you gotta buy lumber somewhere. And I know my grandparents out in my my inlaws out in rural Virginia. They love tractor supply store, but that's not. That's not in where we live, but. Still New deck at the house there allison. I mean you, can you see? A big exposed beam behind me and some drywall work that needs to happen. Have lots of drywall work that needs to happen now though. Yeah Anyway get to that. All right next question comes from Matthew. I got married to my amazing wife nine days ago in a small Kobe nineteen wedding in our front yard after we postponed it from its original date in April all. It was definitely different, but still very special. My question is in relation to this wonderful event. My salary has been at a level that has allowed me to fund a roth. Ira I love the optionality of it, but after marrying my bad ass, wife are combined. Salaries are now over the limit that would allow me to fund the Roth. IRA does this affect occur immediately? Do I need to now open up a traditional. IRA and begin funding it or do I have until the end of the year. Matthew wants a Roth Bachelor party one last. Well Matthew I have bad news. When it comes to most things in taxes, your status and your age and things like that depends on where you are on the last day of the year, said if you're married on the last day of the year, you were considered married for the whole year. So that means if you contributed started contributing to a Roth IRA for twenty twenty. You need to call up your brokerage. Firm and re characterize that as a traditional. Now don't have any other traditional IRA, as it's very easy to do the back door, Ross which we've talked about before you can just google it or even when you call the brokerage, just say I want to do the backdoor. Roth and they'll tell you what to do. If, you have other traditional IRA as you can still do. It just becomes more complicated and you'll probably pay more taxes. So you, but you may not be totally out of luck and I should say that's only if you have a traditional IRA doesn't matter if your wife has traditional areas. One exception by the way of of what I just said. In terms of tax status and last day of the year is distributions from retirement accounts before it's age fifty nine and a half, you actually have to be age fifty nine and a half to avoid that ten percent early distribution penalty, unless some of the many exceptions that are out there exist. Right next question comes from Warren Warren Buffett. Maybe I don't know that's why I was thinking. He's asking about coq, so maybe maybe. Once James Opinion on coke. By? Or hold? Wants to now. I'd give buffet night give. Kiesel Warren of the same advice and I would say. For some I'm not buying it. Not Buying it I'm not holding it if I own it. I guess that means sell it. Even Atlanta Georgia person like you i. feel like it's almost sacrilege. I am pretty close to probably not being ever even invited back. But the facts are the facts. Okay, I mean you do have to look at the stock itself has been ain't bad stockton for the last five years. I mean I do understand why when you look at it what they do, I mean they have. Four hundred master brands, and less than fifty percent of them are the big global brands that are actually responsible for almost all of their revenue when I say almost only ninety eight percent, so it's a business. It's very reliant on on. You know a small portfolio of really successful grants. The problem is now. We've always talked about cocoa beans such a great distribution story and that's true. They've got a distribution network. It's just phenomenal, but the problem is now. They're what they're distributing is is being seen as not so good for you in so you're seeing them. Have it into to essentially pivot away from what you know brought them all of the success for all these years. Years in soda and that that's not going to change I. Mean you're always GonNa have people to drink soda? People are not to drinking as much soda going forward in the numbers of just kind of the kind of shown that through that through the quarters in the years of Coca, Cola and Pepsi Pepsi. Has the salty snacks division, which I've always been very. Impressed by I, mean I love a good Cheeto, and so I mean anytime you can throw a bag of those cheetos in my Patriot Amok GonNa, turn it their coq. Interrupting, but I think this is also very important point. You tried the Jalapeno White Cheddar crunchy cheetos. The White Shit or so. I've tried to Jalapeno ones but I've not seen the white Cheddar White Cheddar Jalapeno crunchy cheetos. Don't get the puffy. The poofy ones are not as good, but the crunchy white Cheddar Jalapeno Cheetahs. them by them. They're amazing. I have to back. Pain you. I'll get those next time. I promise I, mean Eh. One. crunchy wants the puffy ones, so that people won't you're not? You're not seeing poopie. Who using poofy Joe Copy? We'll be Coca doesn't have that dynamic of their business. They don't have that dynamic to their business, and they've suffered from that Pepsi's Pepsi's outperform coca-cola over the last several years. It's not safe. Pepsi or coke get it back. I'm sure they probably can. But what I am saying is I think there are a lot of better ideas out there, and so I wouldn't be putting new money into Coca Cola and frankly if I did own it. I probably would look at selling it and you know if you've got a beverage company, maybe own starbucks. It seems like the science coming out in support of coffee, right? It's coming and telling you that these sodas. They're gonNA. Make you fat. Coffee, it could extend your life. It could help you live longer. SMART Mexican looking this a starbucks as well is. That sounds like study from the copy roasters of America. Do! Something that Chris Hill sent me the other day. that. We sleep at night. I'm glad I've been drinking coffee as long as I have God knows what I would look like otherwise. You're a good looking man. Rick. good-looking next question comes from. A. I'm trying to save money for my kid's College. Fund while the five nine is a great option. I'm limited to investing in mutual funds, which means at best I'm going to get what the market gets assuming I do some sort of low cost index fund and I be a capital F. Fool investor have been doing much better than the market in the last three years of being a member of. Of Stock Advisor Enroll breakers, even during this pandemic mess by listening to every full podcast and following David and Tom's and yours and every one else's in the full universe. My portfolio of about one hundred stocks is up here today. Thirty percent to the market's down five percent as of day as of today weighed down by three sluggish five to nine plants that are also down five percent each. I feel like throwing away money by using the five to nine, and not being allowed to select my own great companies in which to invest. What's more, my understanding is that the five to nine does not count as an asset for the kid when applying for student aid, but the coverdale does. So I come to you with a simple question. Can I have my cake and eat it, too? What if I wanted to use the coverdell to buy individual stocks? Until the child is nearing college? At which point I then converted to a five to nine. This allows me to get better returns and avoid it being an asset for financial aid and get the favorable tax benefit. So, chose this question, because first of all Dune does a good job explaining the benefits of the coverdell over the five twenty nine, you can buy individual stocks. You can buy and sell them all day long. We recommend that, but you can. Whereas with the five twenty nine, you can only make two changes to the investments a year, and it's all mutual funds. So. That's you did a good job of explaining that. I will point out with the coverdell. It's gotta low contribution limit of only two thousand dollars a year, so for some people save more for college, but they can max out to cover it out, but then put the rest in a five twenty nine. One thing that doomed does not have quite right. Is The financial aid treatment the financial aid treatment? Coverdale's and five twenty nine is identical. They're treated as assets of the parent, not the kid that is favourable from a financial aid perspective. It's not negligible doesn't mean it doesn't have any effect on financial aid, but it's better than an asset that is owned. By the kid. He can. Transfer money from the Coverdell to the five twenty nine. If for some reason, he decides to do that, but you can't transfer it. The other way around so were convinced to try out the covered. You have money in a five twenty nine. You can't move it from the five twenty nine. To the coverdale. What other interesting thing that he pointed out is that he is doing very well with his investments, and he owns about one hundred stocks. We get this question a lot. Either on the show, or on the full live that we run every day for members of full services, and that is how many stocks should I own, and if I owned too many are not just owning index fund watering down my returns, but here's an example if someone owns a one hundred stocks is still crushing the market. Idol last question comes from Cameron thoughts on the valuation of Stone Co in light of the corona virus for a fragile country like Brazil. This could be the tipping point after so many other headwinds. But how does that affect stone? coz Business Jason I. Don't even know what Stone Co is. What is still business? Yes, don't Coz a payments company that's focused on Latin American markets in Brazil and particular in so I guess it could be. Draw you can draw a parallel to to a with square through pay pal at, but generally speaking I mean it's payments. Company focused on Latin America. Primarily Brazil. Is the big money making market kind of like Marco Libra, they're. In I, I, it's a it's. A NEAT opportunity, gained a lot of headline recently, when and it was, it was seen that Berkshire hathaway. Warren Buffett's company Berkshire hathaway taken a five percent position in the company, which is pretty considerable i. Think in the near term. You have to acknowledge the fact that. They're gonNA, be some real headwinds in in Brazil particularly because of the pandemic I mean. The flip side of that is role in same boat kind of in that regard. The entire world is dealing with it, so it's not specifically you know it's. It's not particular to one economy or one country some. To get hit harder than others I, do feel like Brazil. Be at a place where they can recover from this given You know some of the other businesses in the area. I mean that that that I think is. Who knows ultimately how? That's GONNA shake, but generally speaking. I think the move away from cash towards cashless. Transactions in and financial software that's not stopping if anything, this hastens that which which is what I think, Cameron's talking about there and for a company like stone. Co, neither are other companies in the space pags bureau in roquetas libra to but you know moving money around is a big big market opportunity, and there's nothing that says they won't be able to expand well beyond the Latin American markets, too, so I I'd say cautiously optimistic I mean I
Capital Allocation with Blair Silverberg and Chris Olivares
"Blair and Chris Welcome to the show. Thank, you good to be here. We're talking about capital allocation today and I'd like you to start off by describing the problems that you see with modern capital allocation for technology companies. I'm happy happy to start there. So I think it might be helpful to give. The listeners, a little bit of our backgrounds so I was a venture capitalist at draper. Fisher Jurvetson for five years I worked very closely with Steve. Jurvetson and we were financing are very MD intensive. Technology projects that became businesses things like satellite companies companies that were making chips to challenge the GP you new applications of machine learning algorithm so on and so forth and I think the most important thing to recognize is that the vast majority of technology funding does not actually go to those kinds of companies. The venture space is a two hundred fifty billion dollars per year investment space. The vast majority of the capital goes to parts of businesses that are pretty predictable like raising money in in investing that in sales, marketing and inventory or building technologies that have a fairly low technical risk profile, so the vast majority of tech companies find themselves raising money. From a industry that was designed to finance crazy high technology risk projects at a time where that industry because technology so pervasive you know really do the great work of of many entrepreneurs over the past twenty to thirty years, technology is now mainstream, but the financing structure to finance businesses not has not really changed much in that period of time. Yeah, and then I guess I'll talk a little bit. My my background is I came from consumer education sort of background, so direct to consumer, thinking about how you use tools and make tools that ingrained into the lives of teachers, parents students I was down in the junior class dojo before starting capital with Blair. We were working on the Earth thesis He. He was telling me a lot about this. The the date out. There exists to make more data driven in data rich decisions. How do we go software to make that easy to access in self service and sort of servicing the signal from the noise, and we kicked around the idea and I thought that they were just a tremendous opportunity to bring. What Silicon Valley really pioneered which is I think making software that is easy to use in agreeing to your live into kind of old industry fund raising capital Haitian. The kinds of capital allocation that exist there's. And debt, financing and different flavors of these. Of these things say more about the different classes of fundraising in how they are typically appropriated two different kinds of businesses. So. You have the main the main groups you know. Absolutely correct, so there's. Equity means you sell part of your business forever to a group of people and as Business Rosen succeeds. They'll get a share in that. Success and ultimately income forever. Debt means you temporarily borrow money from somebody you pay them money, and then at some point in time that money's paid back and you all future income for your business, so equities permanent, not permanent. If you think about how companies are finance like. Let's take the P five hundred. About thirty percents of the capital that S&P five hundred companies use to run. Businesses comes from debt. In the venture world that's remarkably just two percent. And the thing that's crazy is this is two percent with early stage seed companies, also two percent with public venture, backed companies in places like the best cloud index, which is like a one trillion dollar index of publicly traded technology companies started their life, and in with injure backing many of them SAS companies, these companies, also just two percent finance with debt, but nonetheless within these these classes, the reason it's obviously economically much better for a business and pretty much every case to finance itself with debt because it's not. Not It's not permanent, and it can be paid back. It's much much cheaper to use debt. That's why you buy a house with a mortgage show. You know you don't sell twenty percent of your future income forever to your bank help you buy a house, but the reason that people use equity comes back to the risk profile so just like. If you lose your job and you can't pay off your mortgage. The bank owns your home. Same exact thing happens with debt in so restorick Louis, if there's very low. Certainty around the outcome in typically early stage investment you're you're doing a lot of brand new are indeed you have no idea if it's GonNa work you cope. You know over time that you'll be successful, but there's really quite a bit of uncertainty equities a great tool because you're. You'RE NOT GONNA lose a business, you know everybody can basically react to a failed. Are Indeed project. Decide what to do next had saints. Equity is kind of the continent tool for high technical risk, high uncertainty investments, and then debt is basically the tool for everything else, and it can be used as most companies do for. Ninety percent of The places that businesses are investing so if you're spending money on sales and marketing, and you know what you're doing and you've been running campaigns before. That were successful, very. Little reason you should use equity for that if you're buying inventory if you are a big business that's. Reach a level of success that on. Means you have a bunch of diversified cashless. Coming in businesses might take out dead on business kind of overall, so it's less important what specifically you're using the money for, but it's important to recognize that most companies are financed roughly fifty fifty equity versus dead, just just intra back companies that. That are kind of uniquely Equity Finance. Scaling a sequel cluster has historically been a difficult task cockroach. DB Makes Scaling your relational database much easier. COCKROACH! DVD's a distributed sequel database that makes it simple to build resilient scalable applications quickly. COCKROACH DB is post grass compatible giving the same familiar sequel interface that database developers have used for years. 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It's often originating in a large source, a sovereign wealth fund or family office in it's being routed through something like capital allocators cater like a venture capital firm for example or a bank. How does this capital get allocated to these smaller sources? What is the supply chain of capital in the traditional sense? You know it's kind of funny to think about capital and things like the stock market in the form of a supply supply chain, but this is exactly how we think about it so at the end of the day. Capital originate. In somebody savings, basically society savings right you. You have a retirement account or your population like you know in in Singapore and Norway with a lot of capital, it sort of accumulated from. From the population and these sovereign wealth funds, or you're an endowment that's you know managing donations of accumulated over many many years, and ultimately you're trying to invest capital to earn a return and pay for something pay for your retirement pay for the university's operation so on so forth so that's Capitol starts, and it basically flows through the economy in theory. To all of the economic projects that are most profitable, inefficient for society, and so, if you step back, and you think about like how how is it that the American dream or the Chinese Miracle Happen? You know in in both of those cases different points of the last hundred years. Why is it that society basically stagnated? You know the world was a pretty scary. Scary place to live in up until about seventeen fifty, the industrial revolution started. Why is it that you know basically for all of human history? People fought each other for food and died at the age of thirty or forty, and over the last two hundred fifty years that it's totally changed. It's because we have an economic system that converts capital from its original owners. Diverts it to the most productive projects. which if they're successful, replace some old more expensive way of doing something with newer better way and so I think when when I described that like you know I, think most people can step back and say yeah, okay I. kind of see how capital flows through the system, it goes automatically to someone making an investment decision like a venture capital firm ultimately gets into the hands of the company company decides to invest in creating some great product that people love. Let's. Let's say like Amazon and then everybody switches from you know buying goods at some store that may or may not be out of you know may or may not being stock to the world's best selection of anything you'd never wanted. The most efficient price that's society gets wealthier basically through these these kind of steps in these transformations, but it's asking if you step back and think about it like nobody actually thinks it's processes as efficient as it could be like. We asked people all the time. People were interviewing journalists companies. We work with sewn. So how efficient do you think world's capital allocation is? I've never met a person that says it's pretty good. You know we're like ninety percent of the way there. In fact, most people think it's pretty inefficient. They think of companies like you know we work, and some of the more famous cases lately of of Silicon. Valley back businesses that that totally. underwhelmed disappointed. Their initial expectations and I think most people admit that the efficiency of capital allocation is either broken or nowhere close to achieving its potential, and so we basically we'll talk more about our technology and how we do we do. We basically think of this problem our problem to solve. There's an incredible amount of Apache inefficiency in how data that goes from a project or a company, ultimately funneling up to an investor flows, and so you know it's hard to place blame because there's so many people in the supply chain, but. But I think it super clear that if it's difficult to measure whether or not a project or a business is good at converting capital into value in wealth, and you know products that people want, it's nearly impossible for society to become really good and efficient at allocating its capital, so we're we're here basically to make the data gathering data transformation visualization communication of what's actually going on under the out of business as efficient as possible and you know from that, we thank some great things are going to happen to the economy. Goes a little bit deeper on the role that a bank typically plays in capital allocation. If you think about our bank works like let's take. Let's take a consumer bank that most people think about you gotTA checking account. Right, now you've got some money in that checking account. That account actually takes your money or dot and most people know this your dollars sitting in that account. You know just waiting around. You'd withdraw them. Your dollars are actually rolling up into the bank's treasury. There's somebody at the bank working with the regulators to say hey, how much of this money can we actually put into things like mortgages, commercial loans, all of the the uses of capital that society. Has In some some effort to. To, move the world forward and make the economy efficient, and so those deposits basically roll up into a big investment fund, and there's ratios that regulators set globally that say those dollars needed to be kept in reserve, versus how many are actually able to be invested, but with the portion that's able to be invested. It's there to fun. You know building a house to fund a business back -Tory to fund sales and marketing or inventory procurement for some other business, and so a bank was was basically the original investment fund, and a bank has unlike venture funds and other sources of. We typically think private capital. The bank has tricky. Problem were any moment all of the depositors holding the checking accounts could show up and say hey. I want my money back and so that's why banks have to deal with reserving capital predicting the amount of withdraw and classically everybody wants her money at once at the worst possible time, and so banks have to deal with quite a bit of volatility now if you take an investment fund on the other hand. Totally totally different structure, so your typical venture fund will have money available to it for a period of ten years from you know typically these larger pools of capital. We talked we talked about so very rarely. Individuals are investing retirement savings in venture funds, typically sovereign wealth funds down that's. Basically pools of that individuals capable. Win One of these funds makes a commitment to a venture fund. It'll say you've got the capital for ten years. You've gotta pay back. You know as investments exit, but other than that will check in ten years from now. We hope that we have more than we gave you the star with and there there's no liquidity problem because the fun has effectively carte blanche to keep the money invested until some set of businesses grow and succeed and go public and make distributions so one thing that's fascinating. The Tappan in the last twenty five years is private capital capital in the format of these kinds of funds. Have just grown tremendously and so today. There's a little over five trillion dollars. Of private capital being allocated in this way to think like buyout funds venture funds so on and so forth. Funds don't have the liquidity problems of banks. They can make much longer term for looking investments. This is created tremendous potential to make the economy more more efficient by taking out the time spectrum. You know this is why venture investors can do things like finance spacex or Tesla. Really. Build fundamental technologies in the way that a bank never could so this is an amazing thing it. However leads to a very long. You DAK cycle, so the incentive goes down when you take out the time line over which investment needs to pay back. To carefully monitor and understand what's going on in the business day today, so it's pretty interesting thing about the different pools of capital. There's not not to. Make it sound too confusing, but I think everybody will admit that the financial markets are incredibly diverse complicated we track basically about fifteen different kinds of capital, and they're sort of pros and cons with each one, but you know a bank is one. A private fund is wanted insurance companies balancing as another. You've got things like ETF and public vehicles that hold capital so there's quite a bit of complexity and the the structure of the financial markets. All right well. That's maybe the supply side of Capitol on. All kinds of middlemen and all kinds of different arrangements, but ultimately there is also the demand side of Capitol, at least from the point of view of companies getting started which is. Startups or computer in later stage with the maybe they're not exactly considered startup anymore, but they're mature. These companies have models for how they are predicting. They're going to grow, but oftentimes these companies are very. Lumpy in terms of how their their revenues come in how closely their predictions can track reality. So how do technology companies even model their finances? Is there a way to model their finances? That actually has some meaningful trajectory. Sure so first. Companies you know need need a base think of all the places that they're spending our money and. We're pretty. We Do I. Think a pretty good job of organizing this and making it simple so when we look at companies and we can, we can talk more about how the the cabinet machine operates, but when we look at companies, we basically think they're only a handful of places of money. Get spent you spend money on. Short term projects that you hope proficient things, sales and marketing. Houston money on paying for your sources of financing like paying interest on debt, making distributions to your investors, and then you spend money on everything else and everything else can be designing software building products on, and so forth, and so if you break the demand for capital down into just those three buckets. And look at them that way. Some pretty interesting things happen. The first is for the short term investments that you hope productive. You can track pretty granular nearly whether or not they are, and we'll come back to that. For paying back your investors, you sort of know exactly how much you're paying your investors so a pretty easy thing to track, and then for the operating costs you know most people will help us. Apax, that you're paying to keep the lights on things like Renton the your accountants, the CEO salaries on and so forth these are these are table stakes expenditures. You need to stay in business and so. Amongst each of those three things, there's different things that you wanna do to optimize and I'm happy to go into more detail sort of go through each one. If you think that'd be useful. Yeah Bliss a little bit more about about how these companies should be a modeling, their revenues are that is meaningful to model their revenue so that you can potentially think of them as targets for for capital allocation so. If we think about. Understanding what company might be a viable recipient of capital? How can you accurately predict the trajectory of that company, or or do they? Would they present a model? Would they develop a model good through a little more detail? How a company would serve justify? It's need for capital. So typically what what most companies do and this is not terribly useful or accurate, but I'll tell you what most people do I mean by the way like how central the entire economy predicts, predicts demand for capital works like this. Companies take. Their income statement on their. Balance Sheet historically. And they they basically have this excel file got a bunch of you know, rose and have different things like my revenue, my you revenue that sort of linked or my expenses that are linked revenue Mukasey could sold so on and so forth, and they grow each of those rose by some number that they hope to hit so if you want your revenue to double next year, you'll say my revenue one hundred dollars today I wanted to be two hundred. Hundred dollars twelve months from now I'm just GONNA draw a line between those two points and every month. There will be some number that's on that line, and that's why monthly revenue I want my expenses. You know everyone knows. Expenses are going to have to go up if my revenue goes up but I don't want them to go up as much as my revenue, so I'm going to draw a line. That's you know somewhere less than a doubling. and. You pull these lines together on one big excel file and there's your you know they're your corporate projections. In general, this is true for big companies small companies, but that's not actually how. Company revenue works because if you go back to the three categories, we talked about before, and you just focus on the one that talks about the short term investments. The. Way Company Revenue Actually Works is a company this month. Let's say they spend one hundred dollars on sales marketing. Well. They're hoping to get a return on that sales marketing, and so they're hoping that in the next you know six months. That's paid back. Twelve months that's paid back. You can actually track every time they spend money on sales and marketing. how quickly it gets paid back so it's that level of precision that can accurately predict revenue, and so what we do is we basically just get a list of every time? Money was spent on one of these short-term investments, so you sales and marketing for for an example, and then we get a list of all of the revenue that was ever earned. And we attribute between both of those lists causing effect. And we do that using a bunch of techniques that are pretty commonplace in your typical data, company or machine learning company. We use some math things like factor graphs. We use simple kind of correlations. We have You know a whole kind of financial framework to. Guess. What attribution should be because you learn a lot as you see different businesses and you see a bunch of different different patterns, which you can basically cluster on, but it is this linkage between spending on something like sales and marketing emceeing seeing revenue, go up or down, but makes or breaks a business, and you want to look at it and I is. Not a bundled. Entirety which is how financial projections are typically built? Okay, well! Let's talk a little bit more about what you actually do so if you're talking about early stage technology companies. Describe how you are modeling, those companies and how you are making decisions as to whether they should receive capital. When a company comes to capital they they come to our website. They sign up for this system that we built which which we've called the capital machine. And the first thing that they do is they connect their accounting system their payment processor typically, so think like a strike, and then sometimes they'll provide other things like a pitch deck or a data room, or whatever other information they have prepared. The system pulls down. All of the date in the accounting system and the the payment processor, and we look at other systems to these are the two key ones that all all dive into detail, and so, what ends up happening is from the accounting system. We get a list of all the times. Businesses spend money on these things like sales and marketing that we were talking about before. From the payment processor we get a list of all the revenue transactions in crucially we get it at. The level of each. Each customer payment, and so you know we scrub I all we really care about is having a customer ID, but once we have data at that level. We can start to do this linkage and say all right look. You know this business spent. A million dollars on sales and marketing and March of two thousand eighteen in April of twenty eighteen, and we saw revenue grow by twenty percent. That was a pretty substantial chain. You know what actually happened here. You can typically identify the subcategories of sales and marketing and start to do this link between these two, and this is really the you know the magic behind our our data science in our team pairing with our engineering team to figure out this problem and solve away that is, that's robust. Bud once we have these two data feeds, and the system goes through, and does all of these attribution. Populations were able to present that back to accompany a pretty clear picture of what's going on, and so we'll say things like hey. Your Business is pretty seasonal, and in the summer is when you're typically more more efficient at converting your sales and marketing dollars into growth so I, you want to finance growth in the summer. The second thing is only about eighty percent of your businesses financeable. There's twenty percent where you might not know it because you're not looking at this level of detail, you're busy building your business, which is exactly exactly what you should be doing, but Twenty percent of your businesses, not efficient. You're spending money on on your sales and marketing categories, product lines, and CETERA that just shouldn't exist and so if you get rid of those. If you double down on the part of Your Business, it is efficient. Then we predict your revenue will be act fifty percent higher, and we'll tell you exactly how much money you need to invest to raise money to to raise the revenue by fifty percent. We give you a bunch of charts that allow you to see how history and projections merged together and dig down. Inspect how we do that linkage to make sure you agree, but. This is what the capital machine does at its core. It Converts Company data into a fully audited completely transparent picture of. How business works where it sufficient where it's not efficient. And then that's where our technology stops, and where balanced she comes in, and so we then take this information, and we make balancing investments directly in companies, and so primarily at this point we lend money to technology companies that we see from their data are eligible for non dilutive funding. We make capital available to them directly. We basically allow them to access it through the capital machine. We use one system to communicate changes to the business. No keep both sides and form so on and so forth, but this is the kind of analytics layer that's essential to making these capital allocation decisions more efficient, and so I think you could imagine a day at least for us in the not too distant future when it's not just US using our balance sheet in this tool to make investments, but in fact, just like excel, every investor can benefit from a similar level of analytics and transparency, as can companies by getting more accurately priced faster access to capital less friction so on and so forth. Get Lab commit, is! Get labs inaugural community event. Get Lab is changing how people think about tools and engineering best practices and get lab commit in Brooklyn is a place for people to learn about the newest practices in devops, and how tools and processes come together to improve the software development life cycle. Get Lab commit is the official conference. Forget lab. It's coming to Brooklyn new. York September Seventeenth Twenty nineteen. If you can make it to Brooklyn, on September Seventeenth Mark Your calendar, forget lab, commit and go to software engineering daily dot, com slash commit. You can sign up with code commit s E. D.. That's COM MIT S. E. D.. And Save thirty percent on. Conference passes. If you're working in devops, and you can make it to New York. It's a great opportunity to take a day away from the office. Your company will probably pay for it, and you get thirty percent off if you sign up with code, commit S, e. There a great speakers from Delta. Airlines Goldman. Sachs northwestern, mutual, T, mobile and more. Check it out at software engineering daily Dot Com slash, commit and use code. Commit S. E. D.. Thank you to get lab for being sponsor. The inputs specifically if you think about a model for determining whether or not, a company should should be eligible to receive capital. I'd like to know how the the models are built. The the data science models that you're building are constructed from the point of view of the inputs. So how are you determining or how do you like company comes to you? How do you turn that company into some structured form of data that you could put into your models and determine whether it's worthy of capital. Yeah I mean it comes down to what what the data is your down so when we talk to a system like striper transaction records system, you know that that's the revenue of the company now where things get interesting when we connect to balance sheets in penalizing, it's of accompanying really onto understanding. Weighing. What exactly these numbers mean, and that sort of where we made our pipelines were built from the ground up to give us that granular. Of A company's cash family revolutions. Where's the money going where they allocating? And it's savable greenway or you once. What do you understand that data through that Lens? That let's build pretty sophisticated financial models Linda. And you know as soon as you have the picture of Company You can really do a lot of flexible analysis on the back leg distributed computation. Come stuff that you would never be able to excel and quite frankly a lot of these companies don't have the stacking internally or really the tools to understand for themselves, so you'd be surprised it you know when we surface this analysis back to the company by virtue of just being transparent on how we're making decision how it is perceived their business, the signals that were uncovering. These operators the CEO's the CFO's that are really focused on building company. Really surprising. They're really making these insights really transforming. How they think they should have capital. Should invest growing business. Are there any? Sources of Third Party data that you can gather to improve decision making. There are at a macro economic sense, and so it's actually quite useful to look at public company performance and say hey. SAS businesses in general. Most people notice, but facilities in general are seasonal in the fourth quarter. Budgets basically expire and people come in, and they buy a bunch of SAS. Software and so to take concepts like that basically shapes of curves, signals and apply them to private company. Financials is useful. Crucially though there is no private company. Data repository of any kind like it just doesn't exist, and you know notoriously even even with small businesses. It's actually quite quite difficult to get access to any sort of meaningful credit data, and so, what ends up happening is these aw. These businesses. Give you a picture of their business directly as an investor and you have to interpret it directly, and that's basically how this works totally unlike consumer credit, there's no credit bureau that people paying so most investors are analyzing the state and excel. Excel notoriously breaks when there's about a million cells worth of data, and so we've got this great visualization showing our data pipeline, and it's basically a bunch of boxes, and there's a little tiny. Tiny box in the bottom of corner that's excel, and there's a bunch of other boxes across the entire rest of the page that are nodes in our in our distributed computations, but accelerate very very limited, and so it makes it impossible to actually understand what's going on in business from the source data, and it's at the source that you see this variability in this linkage between profitable capital allocation decisions in unprofitable capital allocation decisions. Describing more detail, the workflow so a company comes to you and they're going to put their inputs into the. Would you call the capital machine? What does that workflow look like in a little bit more depth? Yes when they come to the website, they creighton count much like you would on. Twitter facebook account. When your details your email, you terrify your email, and then you on what's recalling like the capital portable on there? You have et CETERA. Tools to connect your sins record and these are typical offload. So you know people are very familiar with you. You know you say hey, let's connect by quickbooks you in your credentials and sort of be as secure way, and you click okay and the system checkmark by your quickbooks in the system start pulling that data out of regular cadence and. Depending on what system you're connecting you of the characteristics of that's not go systems of record, and how much data you have you know. The data's available anywhere from ten minutes to a couple of hours later and you know once we have Dr. System, we run that through our partake analysis pipeline in the users as a company. You get you get charged. In Tableau kind of call it, the insight Saban's these refused that we think would be helpful for you as an operator company understanding about Your Business in separately. We also get views of that data that are useful to our our internal investment team. Whoever is looking to capitalization systems? Are there certain business categories that are a better fit for modeling in better fit for the kind of. Predictable capital returns that you can, you can expect with the investments that you're making so like you ride sharing or Gig economy businesses or some businesses. What are the categories that are the best fit? Say Very few categories don't shit from the from the perspective of of linkages, but they're certainly models at their easier to think through and easier to understand, but our our system can underwrite today A. Lease on a commercial aircraft, a fleet of ships and Insurance Agency ask company the most important. Thing about our system is that the financial theory that underlies it is very general, just like p. e. rate is very general, and so that's kind of sounds crazy like. A lot of. A. Lot of people say what what businesses the best fit for your your system and you know it's kind of like asking what businesses the best for Warren Buffett like Warren. Buffett is a generalist. In any business, and he has a framework in his own head to figure out how to make ship comparable to American Express our assistant has a very similar framework. It just operates at the level of transactions instead of at the level of financial statements, but certainly within. That framework there's some examples that are just easier describes I think like you know thinking through the fishing of sales and marketing something. That's a lot more obvious than thinking through like the stability in refurbishment of commercial aircraft parts, which is a key question you know. Pricing pricing refurbished parts, which is a key question if your financing commercial aircraft and Our team, the ambassadors that use the capital machine internally which we primarily do internally do a little bit of partnering with without the groups to to use this as well. These people are all specialists in some particular area, but it's crucial to understand. They're looking at the exact same chance as all the other specialists and all the other areas, so it's like literally the the Fast Company and a commercial aircraft will have the same series of charts at investors. Are there two two draw their conclusion? Is the question for Chris. Can you describe the stack of technologies that you built in more detail? Yeah Yeah. Of course on the front, we are react type script, xjs, you know everything is on aws, and in the back, and we're. We're all python, and in really the reason for that is if you're doing any serious machine, learning or data science today can't really get away in python stack, so we're all python them back in. We have flasks. As a as our API late here and That's the that's a high level. And get a little bit more detail about how the data science layer works. Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course, so we put on the dea into basically a data lake the that goes down into Ardito pipeline in that's all air orchestrated on top of each called airflow, and we use a technology called desk for are distributed computation, and I think that this is a good choice. Choice for us at this moment you know I see us doing a lot of work on. You know using a spark in other distributed technologies in the future and his team and it turns out that when we pull this data down organizing the data was really important to us as we build a lot of attractions to make accessing that data, really easy for quantitative analysts. Important central to our whole technology is that we're able to do a lot of different financials experiment very quickly on top of this so the the implications of that really cascade down all the way into. You know what technologies where choosing how we structure our delayed. Even even how strokes are teams, so it really is brought up locations across all product. How is it when you're analyzing company that you have enough data that it warrants a spark cluster because I can imagine? The financial data around the company. How can there really be that much data to analyze how you do surprised in a lot of these transactions systems taking up the companies have been around a couple of years and their direct to consumer. These data sets can be can be pretty large. You know we're talking about in the millions and millions and millions of transactions that were pulling down and storing. Storing and that just on a per company basis. You know that's not even talking about if we wanted to. Benchmarks Cross companies, and also if we want to do scenario analysis, so you know one of the things we was part of a pipeline is take this data, and through like nine ninety nine hundred thousand simulations to understand the sensitivity of different variables on the performance of Your Business and If, you're starting out with starting that already large. Sort of a multiplying effect. On how much data the system is the old process? is you go through those different stages? And, can you tell me a little more detail? What would a typical spark job? Look like for a company that you're assessing. Yes, so first episode is ribbon. Our our financial didn't ingestion parts, so we download something on the order of you know forty fifty bytes of Tim's action data for for a company. We have to do all the work to interpret and understand what that means in reorganized that data in a way that are downstream analysis and primitives can. Make sense of and use for useful analysis so really the first step at this point job is is transformed the datum some it's useful, and then there's all the work on what are the clusters in order to machines and analysis in the computational. Resources needed to run simulations. You know not not just say local computer locally owned of fall over the only about thirty to sixty four gigabytes of Ram what league, so that's where workflow comes in creating easier faces into data, clusters and being. Should you know when you run a job? You know when it fails. You know it's done. You know when the team can't okay. This part of analysis done I had intermediate date asset to do more analysis on now get back to work is a lot of the time we spend developing internal tools to make. One other thing that'll mentioned that I think's important is. A lot of the underlying technology in our data pipeline it's no different than like what a tableau or you need. Traditional BI business would have access to, but what's fascinating when you have a vertically specific domain so financial data in our case you can make a lot of interpretations about the date of the let you do much more intelligent things, and so for example we. Don't have to make your own charts as a user of the capital machine. We make all the charts for you can of course. As a business we work with. Give us ideas for charts. You can mock up your own. We we basically have an interface for for business. The I team's to to write some code if they if they want to bought when you have clients who are thinking about financial risk, financial attribution across all of the companies that we see distilling that down into a series of indicators that are detailed, but generalize -able, and then publishing that back to all of the companies that use the capital machine to run their own capital, allocation, decisions and access, external fundraising and capital. Some pretty amazing things happen in so it's only with a vertical view. You actually having these we, we call our data scientists Kwan's, but but actually having these people who you know typically are graduate level economists, thinking for the first time about using transaction level data in their analysis, which is notoriously not not available to to normal economists that you get the kinds of insights and analysis the actionable for businesses, and then in terms of the data pipeline that then means we actually store a bunch of intermediate data that's opinionated in that way, and that makes it much faster to access much easier to benchmark much more useful across a network of companies, versus just that isolated excel model that. Explains only one business. One thing I'd like to ask you about. Capital intensity so there are kinds of businesses that are capital intensive for example where you have to pay upfront for a lot of ridesharing rides, and you know as Uber or lift. His has known in much detail. You allocate all this capital two things to subsidize rise because you try to win a market, there's all kinds of other capital intensive businesses. How does capital intensity change? What makes sense with regard to the equity financing the debt financing that you are shepherding for these companies? That is a great question and be because of where you focus in your audience. You totally get the most financiers don't so. The first point exactly like you said. Capital intensity means a business consumes a lot of capital. It doesn't mean a business has a physical factory or plant or railcars, so it is absolutely true exactly like you said that there are a lot of tech businesses that are incredibly capital intensive. If you are capital intensive business that means UNI especially if you're growing, you need to raise a lot of external capital, and so it is even more important that your capital or a big portion of your capital base is not dilutive. That's that's just essential. Table stakes because what you see with these businesses, the ride sharing companies are great. Example is by the time one of these things actually goes public the early owners in the business on a very very very miniscule. KEESA that business, still if you contrast that to company like Viva Systems which I think is one of the most capital capitol efficient businesses in venture history, I think that this race something like twelve or fifteen million dollars total before it went public in a at a multi billion dollar market cap. So capital intensity. Is a synonym for dilution your own way less. Than you think when you exit entities even more important that you figure out a way to raise capital non ludicrously upfront. Some broader questions zooming out in in getting your perspective. Do a thesis for what is going on in the economy right now where you look at. The fact that We have. Obvious pressures to. Reducing the size of the economy through the lack of tourism, the lack of social gatherings while the stock market climbs higher and higher, and it appears that the technology side of things is almost unaffected by Corona virus is there. Is there a thesis that you've arrived at or or their set of theses that through conversations with other people, you've found most compelling. Sure the most important thing to realize about the stock market is that it discounts all cash flows from all businesses in the stock market to infinity, and so the value, the stock market about eighty percent of the value. The stock market is. Pretty far into the future like more than three years from now, and so if you believe that the current economic crisis and this is why there's always a. At least in the Western, world, last two hundred fifty years after an economic crisis. If you believe the crisis will eventually revert, and there will be a recovery, then it only makes sense discount stock market assets by anywhere between ten and twenty five percent. If you believe businesses fundamentally going to go out of business because of this crisis, that's a different story, but that explains why something as terrible as Kobe nineteen and a pandemic. Only discount the stock market by by roughly thirty thirty five percent in a in March, but that's not what's actually going on today as you mentioned and so stock market prices now have completely recovered. That is something that we think is a little bit of out of sync with reality but I. I mention you know we're not. We don't spend too much time about the stock market beyond that we just look at you. Know Private Company fundamentals. We try to understand what's actually going on in individual businesses across all businesses that are network to see what you know what we can understand, and you know what kind of conclusions we can draw, and so if you take that Lens and you actually look at what's happening to businesses due to Cova nineteen, it's fascinating. Some businesses like think the food delivery space have gotten a lot more efficient, so those businesses lot like ridesharing businesses back twelve months ago, there was sort of a bloodbath between bunch of companies competing in local markets to acquire customers all all fighting Google and facebook console, and so forth you subsidies drivers, etc.. That's essentially stopped. These businesses incredibly profitable, the cost acquire customers has fallen by more than half a lot of cases. The channels were slot less competitive, and so if you're running one of those businesses. Now is a great time to be aggressively expanding. Weird things like commercial construction businesses. They're actually a handful businesses that we've seen do things like install windows and doors and commercial buildings whose businesses have accelerated because all of these buildings are closed down. Construction project timelines have gotten pulled up. All of these orders are coming. Do in they're you know sort of rapidly doing it solutions? There's obviously a bunch of other businesses have been that have been hurt by by the pandemic, but our general thesis are we've studied. Pretty detailed way the Spanish flu in nineteen eighteen, you know. These things eventually go away. There will be a vaccine. Economy will get back to normal, and as long as we can stay focused on working through this as as a society and of maintain our our fabric of of kind of economic progress then. DESAGUADERO values today will eventually make sense just sort of a question of of win for the stock market, and then if you're if you're actually running business in thinking about your own performance in isolation, really being clear about is now the time to invest and grow my business now the time to be very careful with my expenses interest, get through this for the next year or however long it takes for there to be a vaccine. So the way to think about your company, if I understand correctly if I was to to put in a nutshell, is that. I think of you as a data science middleman between large capital allocators, and and start ups deserving of capital, so the the sovereign wealth funds the banks the I guess. Funds of funds. These kinds of sources are essentially looking to you for guidance on where to direct the capital, and you're on the on the other side, absorbing data and creating opportunities from these startups to source the good directions of that capital. Just wrap up. Would you put any more color around that description or or refining anyway. Yeah I mean I. think that at the core of what capital is is where the. Core Technology Ambler of sort of. The private market if you think about public markets today, you've clearing-houses like the New York Stock Exchange, and you have companies that provide analysis on top of that like Bloomberg, you know we see a tremendous opportunity to shift the paradigm where you know the place where all the financial transactions happen. is also the place that collects the data improvise information for those making these decisions and yeah, so I think capitals really at the center of making a transparent technologically enabled financial marketplace. Guys. Thank you so much for coming on the show and discussing capital, and I guess one last question is. Do you have any predictions for how capital allocation for startups will look differently in five ten years? Sure so! The first prediction. And this is happening now. I mean the the infrastructure is. In place both within. And others. Most startups fairly early in their life. Think is equity only way to do this and. So. That's a cultural shift. That's that's already happened. People are starting to ask that question. The second prediction is. Seed and series a funding will be entirely unchanged. After series. There'll be a bifurcation between businesses that. Are Really. Capital intensive gigantic rnd projects think like SPACEX. The series, B. C. d. e. enough are really about building and launching a rocket. Those businesses will by and large not. Turn outside of equity to finance themselves, but there's very few of those businesses. Pretty much every other business businesses that you see raising a series B. Serie C. Will like any normal business in the entire rest of the economy raise maybe half of that capital nine allegedly either in the form of debt. Royalty financing factoring all of the other instruments that normal companies use to finance themselves in the void delusion that will happen roughly three years her. Now that'll that'll kind of we'll see obvious obvious signs of that from very early very early base, and then the final the final thing is. Steve Case talks a lot about this. With the rise of the rest, he's got this great venture fund that invests explicitly outside the coast, so kind of the rest of America and we've seen that there's there's a pretty dramatic distinction between being a coastal business non-coastal business from capital access perspective, but there's no distinction from an actual performance perspective, and so we'll start to see some of the regional. Differences in bias sees around where capital flows, go away. And so I would maybe put that on a five year timeline like raising capital is actually much more predictable, much less biased, and that's great back to the beginning of our conversation. That's great for the economy I mean every project or business that can convert capital, two products and services that people love should get finance. No questions asked doesn't mean it doesn't matter what the color of your skin is. What background you have whether you went to college didn't go to. College doesn't matter. You have a business with data that can prove whether people love it
Finally, Albertsons Goes Public -- After Besting Krogers Performance
"Well after years of trying albertson's than Asian largest grocery store chain has finally gone public. The company I planned to launch an IPO back in twenty fifteen, but ultimately postponed the offering because of retail market volatility, but even global pandemic couldn't stop. The companies go to market plans this time, not with so much money on the line. ALBERTSON'S IPO was expected to be a billion dollar plus event, but despite the strength of the grocery sector and the company's own strategic moves, investors weren't suite on Albertson's. The company's target price was roughly twenty dollars per share, but ended up selling for a discounted price of Sixteen A. A share by the time the stock debuted on the new. York Stock Exchange the next day. The price it dropped another three percent. The downsize deal was surprising. Albertson sales in March and most of April were up nearly thirty five percent over last year CNBC reports the company Jones Safeway Jewel OSCO stores among other grocery brands had been making innovative moves before covid nineteen albertson's has been centralizing its buying power investing in its private label brands. It's also remodeled stores to devote more space to growing fresh departments. The Wall Street Journal reports Albertson's also adopted smaller warehouses near existing stores to fulfil online orders faster. Same store sales were outpacing kroger the country's biggest supermarket player according to win site. Grocery business. Following the IPO Albertson CEO Vivek Shankman remained optimistic about the company's prospects. He pointed to market. Volatility is one reason for the disappointing debut. Stocks had fallen the day before the IPO is cove, nineteen surged. He told The Wall Street Journal and IPO is just the starting line. It's not the finish line. Things aren't much better over the number. One grocery brand kroger also enjoyed a pandemic. Pandemic revenue bump last quarter revenue, excluding fuel grew nearly twenty percent from the previous year that growth exceeded analysts expectations, but shortly after its last earnings call in mid June, share prices dropped six percent grocers were an economic bright spot. During the early months after covid nineteen swept across the nation. Many people stocked up on staples and hunker down at home, but investors aren't convinced that the. The. Sales bump from cozy home, cooked meals and stockpiles of toilet, paper and cleaning supplies are going to last much longer. Store margins are razor thin between one and two percent according to mercator. Advisory Group Research and expenses for additional cleaning, staff and safety precautions have spiked, but both grocers are gearing up in areas that promise growth. The economic downturn is made consumers more price conscious that. That bodes well for private label brands which are more profitable than national brands. According to mercator, research both grocery giants are strong players here, but kroger has the edge. It's private label. Division had its best year ever in two thousand, nineteen, topping twenty three billion dollars in sales, according to Progressive Grocer, magazine albertson's private labels tallied roughly half that amount in sales according to its IPO filings. Albertsons is ahead of the game in another important area online sales online grocery sales are poised to jump about forty percent this year core site research estimates. Albertson's has already outfitted to small fulfillment facilities to speed online and delivery orders. It plans to expand the concept Kroger has to. It's centralized distribution strategy according to supermarket news, but the retail giants face increasing pressure from mass club and dollar retail competitors together sectors outpace private label performance from Grocers for reports and their formidable online rivals to as consumers increasingly venture out into the world. Grocers are looking for a way forward key questions remain around how shopping change and whether grocers can find ways to keep ringing up pandemic lovers savings.
Podtrac: NPR back at #1
"Has released its top US. podcast publishes rancor for June. Twenty twenty. NPR regains the number one slot followed by IHEART radio and the New York Times the Ranko includes participating publishers only. Pandora's android APP now supports offline podcasts. However, you need to be paid. Pandora user to gain access to this feature. spotify has announced it's created a team to develop original the programming for the growing US Tino podcast audience, so new music, entertainment and crying town Creator Mark Smelling have an an exclusive podcasts partnership. An interesting data point from the Edison Research Latino podcast listener report, thirty five percent of not knows who don't listen to podcasts. Say that the reason is that too long. We've updated article on. How long should a podcast be with this new data from Germany? ETAPE is a new remote recording service that just needs a browser. You'll find it at aetate code and the new one to replace APP isn't available outside of the US since the wondering includes a subscription service, there's a lot of research that needs to be done on a market by market basis, according to see Hernan Lopez, talking to news.
"We are going to start with some earnings. and honestly, this is one of those situations where you put earnings in air quotes. Because we're talking about groupon and the first quarter results. They actually weren't as bad as wall. Street was fearing. groupon still lost a lot of money and shares down about ten percent today. Yeah, it was not a great quarter for groupon. The shares the sales fell thirty five percent. Gross profit was down thirty four percent they laid off or furloughed about twenty seven hundred employees out of their sixty three hundred employees, and they also have a new CEO and coo left, so it's been a wild couple of months for your opponent hasn't been great. I'm glad you mentioned the management change because that was something I. SORTA noticed this morning when I was reading about this quarterly report and one of the statements was from interim CEO Aaron Cooper Aaron. Cooper's Bennett groupon for a decade or so, but I was like well. Wait a minute. What's the interim and yeah, as you mentioned a couple of months ago? The board basically said that the CEO the chief operating officer and the. Oh, yeah you. You're both Outta here. So. I'm not even sure where the silver lining is right now with group on because on top of everything else last week they executed the dreaded reverse stock split, and in this case it was a one for twenty. Stock splits so for those unfamiliar. Regular stock split is you sometimes companies will come out and say hit a two one split. If you own it for every one share you own your now going to have to, but of course the prices cut in half the reverse split is the opposite because they're trying to boost their stock price, and so they came out and said forever twenty shares you own. You'RE GONNA. Get One so I mean the management shake-up. The fact that Aaron Cooper has been there a decade and still has the interim tag on his CEO Title I. Don't Know Him, but I think it'd be a little miffed if that were the case. You have to wonder what the board is up to there. And then you know you and I were talking about this earlier today. Maria I. Mean this is we're in the middle of a pandemic. I think of group on I know. They have several business lines, but I think of them as more of like the experience company for a long time that's been their marketing like. Hey, go out and take a hot air balloon ride and we're going to get you a discount on that and that sort of thing and. Know again. It's not all of their business, but they are really taking a hit in this environment. Yeah, I think that the experiences is really where they get their bread and butter. That's what they're known for they are trying to look they break out their revenues in terms of their local and their travel revenue travel revenues less than ten percent local revenues, almost ninety one percent of that revenue, but a good chunk of local revenues experiences within that local space and so i. don't think that. That will bounce back anytime soon. I guess the only silver lining would be that as state start reopening, people and companies will be so desperate for anyone to come. have really good deals in the TRI news utilized. groupon and people will try to utilize it if they don't have. That steady income that they're used to, but it's still not a great outlook for groupon. It's a good point and I think that. One of the things they talk about active customer base. It'll be interesting to see if they're able to grow that in the next three to six months. I'm wondering if you think I mean. They have between North America where they have about twenty five million active customers and an international of of North America another sixteen million, so they got about forty forty, two million active customers. This is not a big company. The market cap is about seven hundred fifty million dollars. Do you think? Do. You think someone's going to swoop in and by group on just so they can get that active customer base, or do you think that there are still enough question marks that? That's not in the cards right now I. think it would be kind of a smart acquisition for some people to get you that bigger customer base, and for people to continue to implement deals. Everyone everyone. I love a good deal. I know a lot of people who have a good deal so having those options are pretty smart. If you're a big retailer or you want exposure into at a growing customer base of people who are generally live in cities, like deals like experiences I feel like it's pretty uh smart to grow that customer base if you need to.
Steroid drug offers hope amid increases in Coronavirus infections
"As nations grapple with new outbreaks and spiking death tolls from Corona. Virus, a commonly available drug appeared to offer hope that the most seriously ill could have a better chance of survival. The pandemic has forced countries to impose lockdowns and tough restrictions on daily life and travel, but infections have surged as they ease these rules and reopened their economies with no vaccine, available and much still unknown about the virus researchers in England announced the first drug shown to save lives. The DRUG CODEX method zone reduce deaths by thirty five percent in patients who needed? Needed treatment with breathing machines, and by twenty percent in those only needing supplemental oxygen, it did not appear to help less ill patients. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the drug was the biggest breakthrough yet in treating the corona virus and top US, infectious disease expert. Dr Anthony Found. She called it a significant improvement in the available therapeutic options that we have. Britain is making dexter methods zone available to patients on the country's National Health Service the UK. Department of Health said the drug had been approved to treat all hospitalized in nineteen patients requiring oxygen effective immediately, it said the UK had stockpiled enough to treat two hundred thousand patients. It's on almost every pharmacy shelf in every hospital. It's available throughout the world, and it's very cheap, said piece Hobie of Oxford University, one of the leaders of the trial that randomly assigned two thousand, one hundred and four patients to get the drug, and compared them with four thousand, three, hundred twenty one patients, getting only usual care. Since the virus first emerged in China late last year and spread around the globe, the have been more than eight million confirmed cases and more than four hundred and thirty five thousand deaths.
Sasol shares climb more than 20.5%; Braskem shares fall 2.3%
"South Africa's Sasso is quite more than twenty and a half percent people familiar with the matter said the oil and chemical companies receive multiple offers for a stake in a Louisiana plant they said the suitors include LyondellBasell industries and a joint venture of chevron and Phillips sixty six Brazilian chemical company Braskem has fallen two point three percent after being cut to neutral from buy at UBS the firm side a thirty five percent gain in the ADRs underlying shares since mid may when the firm raised Braskem to body from
Faith leaders call for change in Minnesota
"Historical inequities of your racial tensions in Minneapolis for decades one pastor in the Hawthorne neighborhood hopes the recent protest over the death of George Floyd will spark drastic systemic change pastor Edwin Williams sanctuary church has been on a mission three do you want to do it for twelve years do you think racism is deeply rooted in Minnesota of course of course this is deeply rooted in America when you run into somebody in the community and they're angry this because every single thing that has been set in the place that we're told is supposed to help us is working against us here thirty five percent of the community lives below the federal poverty level CBS news correspondent Jamie you kiss the neighborhood has seen all this before in twenty fifteen protesters demanded justice for the death of twenty four year old Jamar Clark who was shot and killed by police this can be another mandate put on this thing like this is a real opportunity to act please change the system and if the system can't be changed they will need to tear the system down I get it
A Conversation with Mayor Eric Garcetti and Mayor Betsy Price
"This week. Ajc hosted the mayor of Los Angeles. Eric Garcetti and the mayor of Fort Worth Betsy price for a conversation about their leadership on the front lines of the COVID nineteen crisis fighting antisemitism in their cities and what it was like for them to travel to Israel with AJC THOUGH. Garcetti is a Democrat and price or Republican. They agree on so much and are able to talk productively through their disagreements. I think the conversation will help you feel better about America and I know that it did for me. You can sign up to watch this and other. Ajc's zoom programming all part of our advocacy anywhere series by going to AJC dot org slash advocacy anywhere. Now all had the microphone over to my colleague Melanie Maron. Pell who moderated the discussion. Thank you so much above mayor price than mayor. Garcetti for joining us today. It's so nice to see you both here and looking well first of all just really grateful that you're giving us some of your time today. We know how incredibly busy both of you are. And what the life of a mayor must be like. We can only imagine right now so if you can. Let's begin by just a little bit. About how the. Covid nineteen crisis has impacted your cities and Betsy. Why don't you kick us off? Sure thank you for having us. It's great to see everybody Melanie. It's great to see you. After traveling with Y'all we had a great time and go back in a heartbeat learned an incredible amount and mayor Garcetti. It's always fun to be on panels with you. He and I've done a of panels has dealt with this. We've been fortunate for city our size. We're about nine hundred thousand people. A very young city I average age is thirty one and yet we have a big population of quotes. Also and buried reverse demographics. Were thirty five percent. Y thirty six percent Latino in about nineteen percent African American. But we've been very lucky. Our numbers have not been near as high as some of the other Texas cities. We're very spread out city not allow public transportation. And when you're recruit MRS sometimes I walked at density will in this case the lack of density has really helped us. We've got about twenty seven hundred confirmed cases and as of yesterday about eighty eight deaths in the city The economic impact. I'm sure we're going to get into that later. But the economic impact on the city the loss of sales tax probably the downgrading of some property tax is GonNa hit. The city's budget were about one. What four billion dollar budget and we estimate this year alone will be about seventy million or more live managed our budget beard whale where very conservative especially responsible. So we're going to get through this but long-term. This is three to five year hit for cities on their budget particularly on tourism sign and for small businesses. Thank you and mayor. Garcetti but good to see Melanie Ameriprise. Always great to see you as well Awesome to be with. Ajc in all of you. Thank you for making the time to. I represented a small little city Global crossroads it's a place which we have folks who literally originate from every country in the world speak every language were added at diversity in that sense of belonging that we all have but it's also one in which we hold from that value to of come together very proud Los Angeles ca dense urban setting in the metropolitan area is the densest in the United States. But we've seen probably about a twentieth impact of what we saw New York City. We went very early into taking strong actions but that said we still had for state so we have a high number of cases relative to the middle of the pack of America. But we've done extensive testing so we'll under fifty thousand cases about two thousand deaths. But we've also were the first big city in America to offer universal testing with or without symptoms in thirty eight testing centers. We just opened up the Loyd testing center in America yesterday Dodger Stadium to six thousand tests day. And we're very proud. I think mayor price would agree. Mayors suddenly had to become health experts in usually. It's the state of the. That's in charge of that county's often have executives but sometimes don't so they set up to do extraordinary work but not necessarily always to make quick decisions or to stand up in crises. So we've had a state of emergency here Certainly use those powers to be able to stand up testing help expand capacities in our hospitals. Our numbers have stabilized and certainly adequate. Mayor Price received a devastating impact on states and cities in our budgets. Were also very fiscally conservative We haven't had bombed downgrading in this. We have the largest reserve fund in our history at said were Facing huge cuts just our basic services. So I hope that Washington continue to look at our local state governments key parts of our economy and helping stand up the site to defeat. And I'm interested to hear what this assistance would mean to you and your cities and what would be impact. What sorts of pets are you facing? I know you've already described the
Reopening an infected economy
"With Memorial Day upon us questions and concerns linger about how we're doing with the re opening of the American economy. Let's take a look now at several states and what's happening. Their New York seems to be trending in the right direction. Overall cases are up slightly. But they're fairly stable. Since the partial reopening last week and the states seven day average this key now is down fourteen percent. Let's head to Florida. Where NEW CASES ARE UP. Thirty five percent since reopening three weeks ago and it seven day average is rising as well so that is slightly alarming of an odd one in Illinois where new cases have nearly doubled but the seven day average is headed in the right direction. Now let's head West to Nevada. It is looking to reopen casinos very soon and the trend is not. It's friend right now. Snake eyes and in California. New cases are up more than forty percent since at reopening out there but the seven day average. It is fairly
As coronavirus deaths pass 2,000 in Los Angeles, risk remains high
"More than forty three thousand people in Los Angeles county test positive for corona virus more than two thousand have died vast majority of the people who lost their lives had underlying health conditions much public health director Dr Barbara Ferrer says there are four more people with that heightened risk than you may think over thirty five percent of us are here in LA county sometimes the numbers could be as high as forty percent have underlying health conditions I know sometimes folks think is a very tiny group of people who are at an elevated risk of serious illness from covert nineteen but hearing in LA county it's one out of three of
Self-Hosting Your Photo Gallery with Imagely
"Hey welcome back to another episode of this week in photo. I'm your host Frederik van Johnson in this show. It's all about image sharing galleries and wordpress. And I'm joined by Scott Widen. Let me make sure I don't butcher his name Kibbe wits. He's from the company that built this cool stuff. And we're GonNa talk about that stuff and a little bit deeper because I want to dive into the world of wordpress as it applies to photographers and Scott is a is an expert in all that stuff so welcome to the show man how you doing doing well. Thanks for having me no. I think it's the first time that you and I are chatting while I'm on while I'm wearing the image. -Ly brand usually. It's me as a photographer right when you were both at the time and stuff like that. So it's a little bit of a change of pace. I've always been at image immensely but now and now now it's center now. That's great man so you are. You're the chief community officer over there. What does that mean chief community officer? Yeah so I. It's kind of on the marketing side. I get to do things like this. Interact with other photographers with podcast. With youtubers with you know just do a lot of the interaction on social media and in person like I'm the one that goes to the conferences like photo plus expo and hanging out with people going out making photos and stuff like that so I to do stuff like that. I do the blogging. I have we have a podcast about wordpress four photographer so I hope that that kind of stuff right. So I'm I'm sort of the email marketing. It's kind of that. That guy on the guy who gets to your the thing I was hanging out with you. Get to be the face of the company. That's cool. Well let's talk about that so I have the tease. I talked a little bit about wordpress and galleries and all that stuff. So one of the reasons why you and I are having this interviews and you guys who you're about to or you have already depending on where you watch. This rolled out the ability for photographers to kind of in a way replicate what some other players in the cloud. Image storage space. You're doing like smug Mug and Pixie set excetera in terms of building galleries and assigning priceless to those galleries and allowing customers to come in and purchase from either a password or unpasteurized protected area. Which what you told me before. We even started that up until just now has not been possible. Take me through that. Because I'm one of those people I use Mug Mug. I still have my Pixie set account as well and some others And I'm a wordpress user. This week in photo is run on wordpress. Obviously be nice to have the power to have that in house to me. GimMe Gimme the gist of what you guys built. Yes so as you said Thirty thirty five percent of the Internet runs on wordpress. So thirty five percent of photographers are using wordpress. And many of them are using wordpress alongside something like smug monk and it's all good and well if that's what you want but for photographers. Who Want to do everything in one platform that they control? That is a wordpress site. You now have the solution to not only sell in and sell prints and digital downloads. But the prince you have the option to automatically had this refilled by a print lap and the first pre lab we integrated with is White House custom color. Nice and more will be on the way of course but for now. That's that's the only one that's there and the cool part is that yes next Gen gallery built on is a Free Plug. It has about a million active users. It's one of the most popular press ins ever. Definitely the most popular alary plugging is the fastest gallery plug in and it's more than just your typical gallery. Plugin display your photos. It has a full gallery management system in it and that system kind of gives you this it will. It definitely gives you the separation of galleries and not. Everything's in one media library folder. It's all separated and it allows you to fine-tune everything to put in different image tags. Which will import your exit data. So you'll have any keywords. What become tex which means you can create galleries based on tags? If you want we have You know titles and descriptions and things like that and when you the this gallery that you've created and you want to attach a priceless it so you create a price list as some prince from the lab. Some print options and we by default automatically pick the most popular prince from the lab. And then you can add more. You can even do at all if you want to destroy everything once and and that's your price list. If you want to add digital download you can do that and you attach that priceless to the gallery and you once you sell you sell your Princeton. You don't think about the part of come mattress. You don't have to think about The the the the printing the the the editing that comes after that 'cause you know you don't have to worry about replacing inks all that fun stuff on that. So you know like I said before having having been in being a user of these cloud based services the in this is a completely appropriate question especially for someone who's intimate with wordpress and and image making and how stuff goes but the word press. Yeah it's it's almost the defacto standard on the web for for many many many sites out there myself my my sites included but the double edged sword of wordpress is giants got his amazing robust community. Anything that you can imagine you can build and or configured to do but in my opinion or in my experience that's also the Achilles heel of wordpress because there's always updates and plug in conflicts and you know okay you. You're not really bill. If for me it feels like you're not really building on a on a stable foundation. You're building on a foundation that can reconfigures itself every now and then you gotTa make sure everything that's on top of it is good to go. How does how do you guys mitigate that with next Gen and Gal next-gen Gallery and the other services you offer so that if I do put my mission critical business and galleries up there and I have a bride? That's coming in that. Wants to see and by prince she's going to be able to see those and give me money so. I just what you said that that there's sort of this Achilles heel I like to say that We're presses amazing because it can literally do anything but it's also a sometimes a pain the butt because it can literally do anything from so so yes there can be conflicts with different plug ins. Yes you have to worry about. Updates at image league on top of potential complex all the time we get a lot of people coming in that might have a bug here and there and we have a team that troubleshoot said and and can handle those and we have a development team that is fast and we will address any conflicts or bugs that come up that are that need immediate attention if you're having if we're having a conflict with a plugin like you which has happened in the past then that's a plugin that is popular enough. We have to address it. We know that plug in is installed in pretty much every photographers website. We have to fix it. So but if it's if it's a conflict with the plug and then might have a hundred users total well that's not a priority because unfortunately there's not many people using a small amount of people. Yeah yeah so we have to go with with what is impacting the majority
Dow sinks after Fed Chair Powell's comments rattle Wall Street
"Fell sharply after the Federal Reserve. Chairman said Moore may be needed to support the economy the Dow falling for the third straight day. This time more than five hundred points. The S&P five hundred and Nasdaq off. More than one and a half percent. Energy and financials were the worst performing sectors in the SNP TODAY. One big reason for the drop perhaps comments from one of the most respected investors in the world. David Tepper was with me today on the halftime report. It's definitely As of yesterday on the markets from yesterday I would say that ninety nine was more overvalued in two thousand but Yeah I would say it's one of the most valued markets maybe the second most valued I've ever seen. The market is pretty high in the feds. Put a lot of money in here. And it's a question. Has there been different? Miss Allocation of capital in the markets? And certainly you're seeing pockets of that now on the stock market And the market is by anybody's standards. Pretty full. I think that you know that the bottom is in. I think probably if the situation remains you know if we're just dealing with a virus and there's no other issues that come up. I was David Tepper for more. Today's big drop Mike Santoli with us once again by good to see. David tepper speaks people. Tend to listen Jamaica comments today. Well I do think it's spoke to a lot of the sentiment that if you're looking at near term fundamentals the aggregate corporate earnings power of this market. You really can't make a great case for being at these levels of for to have this rally continue. That makes a lot of sense clearly. Thirty-five percent Ron off the lows did build in a fair bit of optimism at least in those leading stocks. Do you think difference today though the week stuff that you mentioned like banks like energy like the travel stocks. They've been week for a while. They stayed week today. The difference today was the leading tech stocks. Have taken a breather. They're down three or four percent off their highs and therefore it kind of exposed some of the underlying weakness in the broader market. Because they've been sort of protecting. An insulating index is to a large degree over the last several at
The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
"Sarah Ponsak wrote in Bloomberg. The market isn't the economy though it's at least a reflection of it and a bet on what will thrive in the future unsurprisingly amid a crisis bent on keeping everyone at home bets are coalescing around companies that ease the burden of being locked indoors she quoted Jack Genocea with a portfolio strategist at Nat Texas investment managers. They oversee a trillion dollars in assets. He said the I opener when you look at the ones you're worried about. He's talking about stocks within the five hundred airlines leisure companies. It's not a big chunk of the S. and P. Five hundred it's the old adage where the market isn't the economy that really hits an important piece here a lot of the stuff we're worried about. It's just not a big chunk of the S&P five hundred so maybe we should've react by selling off thirty five percent. Finally Matt Phillips in New York Times wrote a piece titled Repeat After me the markets are not the economy he wrote. The stock market looks increasingly divorced from economic reality. The United States is on the brink of the worst economic collapse since the Hoover Administration. Corporate profits have crumbled more than a million. Americans have contacted the krona virus and hundreds are dying each day. There is no turnaround site yet. Stocks keep climbing even as twenty point. Five million people lost their jobs in April the S. and P. Five hundred stock index logged. It's best month in thirty three years. The top five companies in the S P five hundred employees about one point two million workers worldwide the. Us has a hundred and thirty-three million employed workers last month it was one hundred and fifty six million over twenty million jobs. Lost those five companies. Employment makes up only zero point nine percent of jobs and across the entire S. and P. Five hundred those companies only employ about seventeen percent of US workers.
Uber's attempt to buy Grubhub comes under fire
"Right thanks to uber's considering buying the food delivery company GrubHub Wall Street journal reported yesterday that uber approach GrubHub earlier this year with all stock takeover offer the two companies are continuing to discuss it it were to happen to combine over eats and GrubHub would control fifty five percent of the U. S. food delivery market because of that if he cited analyst it's forty is saying a merger of uber eats and GrubHub would likely get a closer scrutiny from regulators their rival door dash controls about thirty five percent of the market how would you feel if you're one of those was it over when laid off all those people thirty seven hundred people or whatever once the merge field today they all look you know you're expanding price Americans are paying for groceries are up the most in forty six years as people stocked up with crowbars pandemic the labor department reported Tuesday the grocery prices are up two point six percent in April the largest one month jump since February nineteen seventy four the increases were across a broad range of groceries or highest for meat poultry fish and eggs up four point three
"What happened over the weekend. We'll apart from me going fishing and killing so as Diane Fall Off Mana Moon did the World Alana. Lot of good fill the Fisher people out there anyway. It was just of wool. Maimings moon rising over the ocean with Nice Flat Seas and a full time the perfect combination and I loved it anyway to the market sought would also going to we sort of course. Bitcoin have a tumble on. Let's be honest here. It had more than a bit of a tumble which fell a lot faster than what I thought it was going to do. Now Island ten think too much seem like a weird thing. Disable a dime tribal assay trade. What I think and right now that move from the highly hide On for those We pulled back. We pulled back off rejected ten thousand. We pulled up twenty percent from that to roughly one something around that Soda Faiza Net. Is that concern me? Well not really not really. It's not the hugest pullback it did spark it also happened of a fifteen minutes. That's what's a bit fishy to me. That big spot. That happened It does count them. I make it a little bit. Funny bought where it's holding That doesn't concern me so much. What does concern me is that we've got the event going in the next twelve hours. All sorry twelve thousand. Twenty minutes is and for me. I'm going to be sitting put okay. I'm not going to be actively trying. Normally we'll be on the health tribes and the reason. I'm not going to be doing that is because I don't know what's going to happen nephew on already. Owned my free subscription lists and. You should be because I'm telling you right now. It's about to go out. And what you gotTa do is so signed up going to TRY TO CLUB DOT COM. I go to the freight till section sawn up there and you'll get the emails twice awake from us. They goes on content. That you don't get anywhere else. Ottawa size. This we saw in on the Non July two thousand sixteen. It fell off the run up about eighty percent this time round from the lives. We've had a hundred and sixty percent run because we had that massive full bitcoin Forty thirty five percent Then we since size lies backup ought sixty percent or is the thing from there. We continued full thirty percent after the harvest so we went up. Eighty percent the fellow filthy. We went twenty down. We went thirty down and then after that thirty which climb all the way to seventeen thousand. Yeah there was some blitz along the way but overall it pretty much an option Nara wind back again got a two thousand twelve the dight twentieth November same thing. Bitcoin prospect that was about eleven fifty a very different market not many participants at that stage of course but it was a mock of which we did say a guy not a great deal. Go on until the evening and then we started to see that trend really gained some momentum so in the possibly say laid up to a Hoffman which we saying this time we saw in two thousand sixteen and we saw more or less in two thousand twelve. But it's the aftermath of the hardening. The really does capture are tension and having being tomorrow with harding site. Being tomorrow. This bodes well for a continuation to the upside of Bitcoin. But as a traitor on needed precise entry point a precise stop-loss and any targets on to work toward something. They didn't know the perimeters of the risk on that tried. If I'M GONNA risk certain amount of money in I wanNA know where a map and Always Long Against Perpetual contract on T. X. Long also on a theory of classic not with leading into the weekend and I was happy with both those tribes and not. They'll gripe interest have been very patient allows little period of trades that we've had an option of done quite well even though those two trades over the weekend stop me out for a combined two cent loss. Now I was happy having that trade on leading up to the having event. Now that'll be stopped. Out of those on not rolling dos again in Carlina white and see what goes on none Mary. Nothing goes on but on this going to take a few days. What you see what happens is a law googling going on out there about bitcoin hobbling events and that's very well understood. I mean that's just what happens so I'll be waiting watching. And seeing skying there could be further down. Saw The cubie further up saw. But this guy right here is going to not be trading learning going back in time and seeing what's happening today on that on the free video that's just gone out or about to go out and local do as this event occurs keeping it on exactly what happens. We'll all be selling my bitcoin. Now we'll be sending a theory. Mix Up also none none none at all but like I said on manage my risk and have all those individual ingredients come together to manage aintree. Stop-loss Taga I don't want to have any risks. It's not required right now on a sitting out. I'm waiting to see what goes on
Grocery chains limit meat purchases to prevent hoarding
"The ongoing pandemic has touched nearly all aspects of our lives including our food chain meat. Production is down substantially due to corona virus processing plants leading to growing concern over the nation's supply consumer reports just published information on where to get meet during this pandemic so joining us now is consumer reports investigative reporter. Rachel Peach Men Rachel. Thanks for being with us and so when we talk about the vulnerability of the meat supply chain. What does this mean for consumers? What can we expect to see? And at the Grocery Stores Short will consumers are experiencing limits on their meat purchasing options and perhaps some increases in price. Simply because there's a bottleneck at the meat processing plants where there have been severe. Cova nineteen outbreaks so while there is plenty of meat on the farm. Animals are there. There's this bottleneck at the processing plants. That isn't helping us get the meat to the grocery stores where people are trying to buy it now. Rachel we've heard a lot about beef. Being one of those meets specifically that may be difficult to find all meat products be affected at this point. All meat products seemed to be affected. Production in general of me is down about thirty five percent right now but I want to make clear that we also have supply in cold storage at this point. We've got hundreds of millions of pounds of pork poultry and beef. So it's not that won't be able to get any meat. It's just that your options may be limited all right and you have to limit how much you actually bring home to from the grocery store. How long do you foresee this meat? Supply being impacted like this. Well it really depends on what happens at the meat processing plants. Most important is to keep the workers. They're safe and healthy. If the meat processing plants don't have safety protocols in place then the meat production could slow even further so it's most important to open up safely and scale up in a way that allows workers to stay safe and produce meat and in a way that keeps production going. So it's hard to say how long this will last. But government officials are working. Very hard to divert supply places that need it so for example where there is excess on the farm or perhaps waste on the farm. They are working to divert that to food banks and nutrition assistant programs and consumers that that need that all right. How about just giving us some quick tips for those of us who may be having a hard time finding meet at the supermarket. I know it can vary. Based on the day of the week I go to the supermarket. What can we do as consumers absolutely well? This'll be a great time to seek out your local farmer. Smaller local farmers have been able to be really resilience and pivot and instead of selling wholesale to restaurants or other bigger institutions. They are now offering options to consumers. So you might want to look at the national
Georgia tax revenue drops $1 billion in April as pandemic takes its toll
"George's he's a thirty five percent loss in tax revenue in April because of coronavirus shutdowns channel two action news reporter Richard Elliott says the governor's asked all state agencies to cut fourteen percent for the budget so the state reporting a billion dollar loss in tax revenues in just April all state agencies are going to be facing budget cuts from state parks in
"thirty five percent" Discussed on KNX 1070 NEWSRADIO
"Thirty five percent increase over four years and that allowed the city leaders to comment back down five forty seven the judge says that Netflix and needs to stop going after employees at vox variety reports the judge handed down a junction which backs the validity of fixed term employment contracts Netflix tried to invalidate fox's employment agreements arguing they locked employees into jobs they didn't want anymore that's according to variety they report this all started in twenty sixteen when Netflix hired to fox executives doubling each of their salaries Emily Valdez Kane extend seventy newsradio five forty eight might be hard for some California Republicans to get back seats that were lost in the last election including that a former congressman Katie hill according to the Santa Clarita valley signal Democrats are gaining in the percentage of registered voters in that congressional district also reports a percentage of GOP voters in the district is declining political analysts say the pattern appears to be reflected across the state the volcano on new Zealand's what Alan is still active in that has delayed the recovery of bodies from the deadly eruption that occurred earlier this week the volcano is vented more steam on loud prompting authorities to delay plans to retrieve the bodies of victims from a deadly adoption two days ago the geo net seismic monitoring agency says trimmers on why Thailand have been intensifying to a level not seen since under option in twenty sixteen meanwhile Australia is sending a military plane to bring some of the Australians injured in the eruption back to Australia the specialist medical care authorities are expected to transport ten injured patients to New South Wales and Victoria State beginning Thursday I'm Charles de Ledesma if you download the radio dot com.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"Than thirty five percent of its energy needs from cold although most hard black cold is imported lignite told brown cold is still mind in several places in Gemini. my name's Michael fueling I'm with the art of the public relations department and currently I'm acting here as a tour guide. seeing here is an open cast mine for late night as you can see it's not a circular hold it gets bigger and bigger in diameter rather it's the energy company W. E. R. I. V. eight runs the open because lignite mine Hambach west of Cologne Michael is showing a group of school children around they've been inspired by the Swedish environmental campaigning cut to tune back and ten year old Sabrina tells him than not happy with the coal mine in that area I. I think I don't think everything is okay we are protesting because we don't think it is I'm we want everyone to understand that we have to do something about it and they have to listen to us I have that W. E. mines in the region employ about ten thousand people and creates another twenty five thousand jobs for contracted so come Michael see the mind closing in the long term certainly because I mean it's finite but in the short term I'm pretty skeptical of that Germany accounts for something like two percent of the world's carbon dioxide emissions so even if we shut down all German coal fired power plants today it wouldn't even make a dent in CO two emissions worldwide via thinker. one I think it's all kinda bustle food the school children is showing the rewilding that is being carried out by IWB on finished coal seam trees plants and animals are being encouraged to Rome a because of lands just a stone's throw from enormous stigmas on the surface at least Germany's energy producing heartland is changing but not as quickly as peoples and environmentalists would like. them a Wallace reporting from north west in Germany you're listening to BBC world service and weekend my name's Paul Henley. and this is a reminder today's may news Saudi Arabia says its oil production will be temporarily havde following drone attacks on two major oil.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on WAFS Biz 1190
"Refining assets. The first phase four dollar per barrel. Ten when we re today the one point one minibar per day. I think that our break-even receiving on all our founding. At sector to one one point four dollars per barrel. Very low break, even and. The capacity will be in the first phase of about thirty five percent. Australia has joined the US Israel and several Latin American countries in recognizing the leader of Venezuela's national assembly at the country's interim President Nicolas Maduro election to sixty eight presidential term loss GM has been widely criticized the fraud designed to keep him any military allies in power despite the country's years longs file into chaos and poverty, at least two hundred people still missing. And the latest is also a hit Brazil's mining industry. Tailings dam owned by valet collapsed in Manosque Araya state going similar failure three years ago. Volley says rising water levels at another. It's dance in the area has prompted further evacuations global news twenty four hours a day on additive, take talk on Twitter by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. I'm at about rule is this is. Thank you. Back to our top story. White House official is.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on WMAL 630AM
"As best as falls mall. Thirty-five percent, abandoned. We have recently found a pit underneath what we believe to be the research laboratory. And it sounds like the missing air conditioners of asbestos falls may be at the bottom of the pit. In addition, there appears to be some kind of being inhabiting the pit being tore intern Max's arm off and frequently says, I'm going to eat you all of this needs to be documented, but MD has eyes and ears Oliver. So we are running into significant roadblocks the door station will be shut down, and you will disappear type of roadblocks. So we're teaming up with this best is false his most experienced group of eco terrorists. The crafty seniors that's right today. And I entered their encampment in the mall food court, which by the way is very tastefully decorated doilies where pristine, but regardless we were sent to their musty Dan via instructions baked into an apple pie, which was sent to us. Yesterday, which led us to the drugstore where we bought to preparation H, which told us to sit by the food court fountain for the five minutes and dropped three pennies in after that a cane wielding granny in a hover around approached us lowered her wraparound sunglasses and motioned us to follow her. Her. Name was Gertrude Gertrude is a stone cold keeping our silence we followed her past the carousel pass. Several at minimum struggling, but mostly out of business department stores until we arrived at the pretzel palace. Gertrude bought one cinnamon sugar pretzel, and we continued around to another part of the mall. That was even more abandoned. The pretzel was unrelated Gertrude was just creating all of a sudden Gertrude drove her car right through one of those rent this space signs it turned out to be a clever projection. She didn't let us down a ramp through various service corridors until we came to to double doors that looked old enough to have been installed by Gertrude herself to elderly men flung them open to reveal a huge chamber the color of. Mobility, scooters oxygen tanks, flip sunglasses and rain box off to the side was knitting cross-stitching in real hot..
"thirty five percent" Discussed on Newsradio 970 WFLA
"Thirty five percent of those polled. Should they'd heard a lot about the accusations. Even after wall to wall coverage by the national media fewer than a quarter of the respondents say they're following the confirmation hearings, very closely only twenty five percent of the people care about this thing, and they asked if the accusations were credible by Christine blazey Ford in the response showed that twenty eight percent of males and twenty five percent of females believe the allegations are credible. So that means you've got seventy two percent of males and seventy five percent of females who either don't care or don't know. Or don't believe these allegations are credible. So basically Kavanagh's got the public on his side and strangely enough more men and women and who's to say that. And this is why nobody will ever know that maybe she did feel uncomfortable. Or she tries to look back and think upon it and things I was a little uncomfortable in that situation. No rape occur. There was no rape claim. He might have made a move on her, and she might have turned him down. And he might have walked away thinking. Okay. I just got shot down by a girl. That's okay. It happens all the time on it doesn't mean that you put them in a position where you attended rape. It means you made a move on the female she denied you and you move on with your life. Maybe she looks back and goes, well that made me feel uncomfortable. Alright. Well, nothing happened. Well, we find her connections through her attorney to Hillary Clinton and to all of the yes, but nasty things doubt about that political political. It forget about that for a second just in the metoo era the movement now that we're seeing where women are trying to look back and think well, they put me in an uncomfortable position. William maybe you were uncomfortable. But did a rape actually happened did a crime actually occur? And that's right now where you're saying we are now as men guilty until proven innocent. And most of the time you can't even prove the innocence. There's nothing there. No, it's it's that way for sure..
"thirty five percent" Discussed on The Ben Shapiro Show
"I do think there's a cultural battle that the president has engaged in in which his very good. I think he has an innate sympathy for people who do blue collar work in the rust belt in a way. The Democrats do not the Democrats I talked about on the show a few weeks ago have a lot of eight sympathy for the new York, Daily News reporters who are being laid off. They think those jobs are deeply deeply important, but the factory worker in Ohio, they don't really care too much about that guy. The truth is that we should care in a quivalent amount about all of these jobs. I don't think they're manufacturing job in Ohio is necessarily worth more than reporting job in New York. But the other way around is true. Also, I don't think New York reporting job is any more important than a manufacturing job out there in Ohio job is worth what the job is worth that. Said, we ought to be easing the pain of people who live in those areas and are seeing their industries left behind. That's why job retraining is good. That's why folks like micro have millions of dollars that they have placed into job retraining programs in order to create skill sets for people who are moving out of industries that are falling apart and being out competed, but only tariff policies, the best solution for that. The president attacking the coke brothers. I'm not sure how that is politically effective, and this is why this sort of circular firing squad that the president sometimes engages in is not particularly a bright move. I just don't think that's particularly smarter speaking of not particularly smart, the president on Twitter, like really, if the president just didn't tweet, you know how popular it'd be right now. I know there are a lot of people in Trump's support base who believe that. What makes from popular is his Twitter. And I think with some folks in the base that's true, they feel Trump is fighting. He's out there fighting for them and you can sense what he wants and how he feels because he's constantly tweeting things. So for those thirty-five percent of people thirty thirty percent of Americans. Great. But what about the other seventy percent of Americans? Here's the thing. I think if Trump stop tweeting all those people who are already. Empathetic Trump are still going to be sympathetic to Trump. And I think that his tendency to run on at the tweet is not going to hurt him with with people in the middle. If you stop doing it so much, read the diarrhea of the Twitter is not hopeful to him with people who are in the middle of the country or in the middle of the political spectrum. It's just not useful an example of this. So the president this morning, not only does it go off on three guns again, wrong or golf on the coke. Brothers. Again, I think overstated and wrong, even if I disagree with the coke brothers on some of their immigration policy, not only that the president sounded off on collusion. Now, as we mentioned yesterday on the show Rudy Giuliani half not Guiliani is, but it regionally awning yesterday he was speaking on CNN and he talks about how collusion was not a crime. And I said yesterday, this is not a smart legal strategy. It is just not smart to go out there talking about how collusion is not a crime in the middle of you making the case that the president didn't engage in collusion in the first place and then Giuliani botched it even worse yesterday, he went on Fox News.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on KNX 1070 NEWSRADIO
"Near the fire lines there are a lot of nervous people around Stevenson ranch because they could see black smoke coming. Up from that fire those moving very. Quickly through light brush soliver honors with county fire department says they put a lot of resources on this thing immediately two hundred and fifty firefighters and all and a lot from. The air as well at one point we had up to nine helicopters up. Above at right now we're. Down to four helicopters it seems like we're getting a bit of a handle. On things right now It is a. Thirty five percent containment ninety acres in all it looks like it's going to stay. There but they're going to have. Camp. Crews and engines along the. Back roads in this area on PICO canyon which belongs to. The Newhall land company and they're going to be monitoring the fire all night. Long there's still some wind here occasional gusts fifteen to twenty miles an hour. If this. Fire weeknights they, don't want it's spreading into fresh rush and then headed toward homes at right at this point the fires about a mile and a quarter away from any of the homes in. Stevenson ranch reporting live on Pete Demetrio KNX ten seventy NewsRadio. And then we have this fire in Pomona this newer fire burning about five to ten acres were sold the fire. Crews are they're working on this this. Is near the fair plex off the ten freeway spend going uphill likes to medium brush they just landed a helicopter out that way and the ground crews are already there no. Homes or buildings are threatened here we'll keep you updated this latest heatwave is. Leading to excessive heat warnings. Across southern California coastal areas will hit the mid eighties to low nineties while Inland areas are, dealing with triple digit temperatures high-pressure law it basic what's creating this hot air mass not not that it's you lie per se, not that it's. It's an unusually strong high pressure system centered. Right over us okay and so we're kind of getting the. Worst case scenario for July national weather service. Meteorologist Ryan could tell says this high pressure system is so strong that it pushes away the. Marine layer public health officials say people should limit outdoor activities to avoid dehydration or. Worse flex alerts issued across the. State. Everybody being asked to save electricity during this.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on WBAP 820AM
"Thirty-five percent abandoned we have recently found a pit underneath what we believe to be the, research laboratory and it sounds like the missing air conditioners of his, bestest falls may be at the, bottom of the pit in addition there appears to be some. Kind of being inhabiting the pit of being the tour intern Max's arm off. And frequently says I'm going to eat you all of this needs to be documented but MD has eyes. And ears Oliver k x t so we are running, into significant roadblocks the doors station will. Be shut down. And you will disappear type of roadblocks so we're teaming up with this bestest falls must experience group of eco terrorists. The crafty seniors right today and I entered their. Encampment in the mall food court which by the way. Is very tastefully decorated doilies pristine but regardless we were sent to their, musty Dan via. Instructions baked into an apple pie which was sent to us Yesterday which led us. To the drugstore where we bought a two preparation h. which told us to sit by the food court. Fountain for the five minutes and dropped three pennies in, after that a cane wielding granny in. A hover around. Approached us lowered her wraparound sunglasses and motioned us to follow her her name was Gertrude, Gertrude is a stone cold Silence he followed her past. The carousel past. Several at minimum struggling but mostly out of. Business department stores until we arrived at the pretzel palace Gertrude bought one cinnamon sugar pretzel and we continued around to another part of the mall that was even more abandoned the, pretzel was unrelated Gertrude was just craving all, of a sudden Gertrude drove her car right through one of those rent this space signs it turned out, to be a clever projection she didn't let us down a ramp through various service corridors until we came to to double doors that looked old enough to have been installed by Gertrude herself, to elderly, men flung. Them open to reveal a huge chamber the color of four mobility scooters oxygen.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on WMAL 630AM
"Is ready Three PM asbestos falls mall thirty-five percent abandoned we have recently found a pit underneath what we believe to be, the research laboratory and it sounds like the missing air conditioners of, its best is false may be. At the bottom of the pit in. Addition there appears to be some kind of being inhabiting the pit being that. Tore intern Max's arm off and frequently says I'm. Going to eat you all of this needs to be. Documented but has, eyes and ears Oliver so we are running into significant, roadblocks the door station will be set down and. You will disappear type of roadblocks so more teaming up with this best is false his most experienced group of, eco terrorists the crafty seniors that's right today and. I entered their encampment in the mall food court which. By the way is very tastefully decorated pristine but regardless we were sent to, their musty Dan. Via instructions baked into an apple pie which was sent to Yesterday which leads to the drugstore where we, bought a to h which told us to. Sit by the food court fountain, for the, five minutes and. Dropped three pennies in after that a cane wielding granny in a hover around approached us lowered her wraparound sunglasses and motioned us to follow her her name was Gertrude Gertrude is a stone cold keeping. Our silence, we followed her past the carousel past several at minimum struggling but mostly out of business department stores into Hillary arrived, at the pretzel palace Gertrude one cinnamon sugar pretzel and we continued, around to another part of the. Mall that was even more abandoned the. Pretzel was unrelated Gertrude was just craving all of a sudden Gertrude drove her. Car right through one of those rent this space. Signs it turned out to be a clever projection she. Didn't let us, down a ramp through various service corridors until we came, to to double doors that looked old enough to. Have been installed by Gertrude herself to elderly men flung them open to reveal a huge, chamber.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist
"To cuba now and monaco twenty four where the draft of a new constitution will be presented to the national assembly next week in its profound changes to the way the government officially recognizes private property the ideas long been troubled one in the communist run country will discuss this i'm joined by dr helen yaffe who's an electorate and economic and social history at the university of glasgow while combat monocle twenty four jalan explain to us the general gist of this new constitution well cuba has been going on the price of economic reforms really since two thousand i some of them started earlier when i'm round two for the presidency and what has happened is is created new forms of property ownership and also increase in foreign investment and that hasn't been reflected yet in the constitution which hasn't been changed for some time so for those of us who who have been watching developments in cuba very closely this is not come this has not come as a surprise and there's nothing here stuff we know that we haven't actually seen the draft what we've seen as a summary of the draft which appeared in the daily newspaper of the cuban communist party so we knew that rowlett stood up and said well we have allowed people to become selfemployed we've also allow them to contract of a workers what's happened is a sorta spontaneous development of small and medium sized businesses and that's not reflected in the concentration we don't yet have a legal framework to deal with that so this is an attempt to really make the constitutional catch up with the the the reality on the ground and and some of the decrees mike relations have been pulse in recent years so in that context is we have a little bit of a clue of what's going on but the headlines it seemed to be coming out are of great ambitions changes to the way that private property is managed tell us a little bit more about that because it isn't quite as clear cut as osama suggesting i mean there is whenever anything happens in cuba as major sensation it's reaction from those who really would like to see cuba transition towards a capitalist system but the the draft is my play at that cute over main a scientist economy dominated by state ownership of the fundamental means of production as they say and by central planning what's really happening here we want to understand the drive behind this whether they says politically political intention to to move towards a market or whether this is measure of expediency i mean cuba is essentially economically isolated they went through this catastrophic economic collapse following the lapse of the soviet bloc and gdp fell in for by thirty five percent and i ended a nine is the special pair of the ninety s now commentators debate wherever the when they finished wherever it finish and to what extent but the fact is that cuba needs capital for investment in its old infrastructure in some of its modern technology to be able to reinserted south in the world economy and to do it in the context where it has a every punishing the united states look which will not allow it to even transact in dollars in in the international economy and that's the challenge that cuba faces so where does it get this capital that as it has to get it from abroad and why do i get it from remittances said from the many from the united states by family members to cubans in cuba who then sets up their small cafes or there places for people to stay sai one castle pity gladys or wherever it gets it from foreign investment it it's all about the need for this foreign capital to be able to develop the country in very very difficult circumstances this atkins dances however looked like a longterm shift away from the the mindset of the castros miguel diaz canal what is he actually relondo term intending to do with this constitution just to put it in context i mean we talk about the shift from the castros let's remember that growl castro remains the general secretary of the cuban communist party and will remain there probably for another year and a half so it's not like he's just hung up his boots and office gone and the mcgann the canal was an carefully selected kathleen koch he has been well prepared he's not going to shot anyone he's the power structure in cuba are is quiet lots of checks and balances you know it's not like he has alternate power decision making and there was some interesting things.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on WNYC 820AM
"And they're quite receptive to it as long as they see a market they see basic good market access and affair remunerative price i think this overemphasise that farmers are simply ignorant and if they are given the right information they'll respond it doesn't make sense to me for all farmers now there may be of course a certain proportion of farmers extremely savvy and farmers are using for instance their mobile phones to get information on on a range of file a range of things but let me remind ourselves that a fair proportion of farmers of women at least something like thirty five percent of farmers of of workers and as more men than to migrate out to nonfarm jobs increasingly what you're going to see is some degree of of agriculture women don't own the land typically that they are cultivating they have much less access to inputs to farm services i mean there's all we've always recognized since the nineteen eighties there is the information relating to new technologies to new crops to practices doesn't reach the woman farmer i do also want to give you a very positive story coming from the fact that you have very large numbers very small farmers often not viable we need to reconsider other models of farming and perhaps the most important would be group farming very small farmers who pool their land labor and capital or who might lease in line to increase farm size so that you may be a small lunar but you could be a medium sized producer in the state of kerala for instance the initiated a program in the early two thousands for the men to form small groups and leasing land and pool labor and capital now so you have women's groups leasing in line compared to male small male farmers who are who are you typically own the land and i found strikingly that these women's groups have much higher productivity and profitability.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on BizTalk Radio
"Thirty five percent said spent money on things i didn't need come on one hundred percent of the people did that myself included spent money on things i still do that it seems to me like it's pretty benny sec we we all and it's i hate the type being a tightwad to god i i got married it was crazy because my wife grew up that way and i grew up the exact opposite you know my parents invite people from all neighborhood command is italian dinner you know and my wife was on the other side is like penny pinching i i guess there's benefits to both let's see if there's anything else in here are you currently financially supporting someone other than yourself such as family or friends thirty two percent or excuse me genx is forty eight percent baby boomers twenty one percent so it's like our kids supporting their kids of course well that's their family though so other than that so is that telling us that the gen xer like forty year olds are taken care of mom and dad too that's kind of weird mazing so i got this email in from fred so fred is asking me he's in a partnership with another guy and he he's asking me what can he do they're finally starting to make some money trying to find the email had it earlier so we're we're finally making some money what steps do i need to take to make sure that i'm financially protected and so forth well fred you need to hire an attorney that knows what he's talking about or a financial adviser that knows what he's or she is talking about but by and large and i have done quite a bit of this in my past life here it is from fred i'm in a business partnership we haven't done anything legally i don't know i don't know where to start we're starting to do very well and i want to be sure i cross all the t's etc do i hire a lawyer financial planner cpa help love the show.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Their tax bills and why we decided to do this story also is that there's a wrinkle this year because the corporate tax rate with so much higher last year it was thirty five percent in this year's 21percent a big companies really have an incentive to try to account for those expenses last year because obviously the tax savings will be greater under a higher corporate rate while so because the narrative has been won't because the corporate tax rate is so much lower we can take the savings and hand them off term arm ploys so there's an implication here that it could be well we can give this bonus out and we can sort or write it off with a higher rate i mean is that what's what's motivating these bonuses or or or is that too much of elite that that might be a little bit of a lead to say the only reason they're paying the bonuses is because of this tax perk but i do think it is an added incentive and one of the things especially when they're figure out when to book the expense it is something that helps to motivate um you know these bonuses that we've been seeing and we've quote an economist at the end of the story saying you know companies don't just dole out bonuses out of the goodness of their heart there obviously old terrier motives there so for all those reasons you know yes this is a big plus for companies and other thing we should point out is that over all of course companies are now seen their tax bills slashed they've all given many have given guidance showing that under this twenty one percent corporate rate they do intend to see you know these cash windfalls and they're announcing plans about what they're going to do with some of that cash of course some of the announcements we've seen those plans were in place already prior to any kind of tax cut but the point of the stories it just point out don't forget the companies can use these payouts to minimize their tax bills but we we have to say the we don't necessarily know that they are going to take advantage of this right that they're going to account for the bonuses in the 2017 tax every week you're in your story you heard from walmart they told you variety to do it it's warmer as one of the few that actually would explain.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on KFI AM 640
"From thirty five percent to twenty one percent and that will spur economic growth tax cuts for corporations would be permanent cuts for individuals would expire in 20 26 to comply with senate budget rules republicans will rue the day they pass this bill the top two democrats in congress have criticised republicans for passing the tax bill senate democratic leader chuck schumer challenge republican claims that tax breaks lead to job creation and higher wages he says corporations our flush with cash and do not need deep tax cuts reality is so far report house democratic leader nancy pelosi says middleclass families will be hurt by the tax plan the former archbishop of boston who resigned over a reality is so far report house democratic leader nancy pelosi says middleclass families will be hurt by the tax plan the former archbishop of boston who reside find over a cardinal burner bernard law resigned in 2003 that two thousand two over claims he put children at risk by relocating abusive priests instead of notifying parents or the police a lawyer for people who were abused by priests calls law the standardbearer for all that was wrong within the catholic church some of laws supporters say he took the fall for a scandal that was really more to blame on lower level church leadership law died in rome he was eighty six federal investigators in washington state have recovered both data recorders as they try to figure out why an amtrak train derailed outside of seattle investigator abella dimmed czar says the train was travelling at more than twice the posted speed limit monday when it entered a curve and left the tracks it looks like uh in our preliminary analysis that the emergency brake was odd
"thirty five percent" Discussed on WDRC
"At thirty five percent of investors that by properties today never even see the property that they're buying and they'll pay cash for the property so i have to is my responsibility i take my responsibility to make sure that you can compete and beat this guy these people die woman whatever but skullman investors and how you do that by getting a firm commitment ladder not some preapproval that doesn't mean anything we get a approved you go but it back to the same bank they gave you the preapproval two weeks before the closing everyone's all set up the move they have the moving truck coming on a certain day you close in on august 31st guess what the guy gets 11 naive and the personal phone call from the mortgage loan officer to say sorry john were not able to do londbased on whatever the situation is now john the guy law off his worried about getting screened that that's the reason why didn't have the nerve the pick up the phone pick up the phone and make the call and explained to the people that sometimes we have to give you a bad news but please respect the fact that i am giving it a news at least i'm not sending you a letter like most banks still so we pick up the phone and say listen you're not able to at this time john to qualify for the mortgage because you have the too much data we have to pay off credit card we have a science called credit expert it's actually a science that tells you how high you can build you fight goes score so if you have trained union you have an american express and let's say he'll 10 grand it said okay if you pay your credit card that down to uh the american express cards down two three thousand versus 10 odds which about seven thousand dollars than your local school is going to go up eighty basispoint so if you're at five fifty and you can have.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That you spend a lot of time looking at the russell is a small caps and i'm i'm wondering um you've got to be excited by the prospect of tax cuts if that tax reform for corporations because the big guys have all the cash they need they're having you know they don't pay thirty five percent with a little guys do and they don't have the overseas cash so if they get a tax break this could really make a difference to smallcap earnings it could make a huge difference and i think we got the trade as a little bit in smallcap at the beginning of the year after the election it's faded sense then and if you look at this prides between what the large cap cap index has done i mean sp 500 the russell 3000 they're both up ten percent for the year almost ten percent the russel 2000 down am sorry to only up three percent and if you look at the russell 2000 value it's actually down three percent say the spread in the performance difference is pretty bank and you're right the tax breaks if we get then tax reform if we get an have a huge impact for the smallcap companies that we invest and go ahead well i urge you screw that we look good mike why don't you finish back with looks aren't follow that at least placing which small caps benefit the most well i think what you see is the indexes are in smallcap have more financial simmons said there's more bank exposure especially in the small cav value oh index but i think that there are other stocks that will certainly appreciate one of companies that we like right now is no and it's a little under a billion dollar sound very small cap company office furniture office.
"thirty five percent" Discussed on KARN 102.9
"The majority of them thirty five percent of them are going to be you know that they're not going to get their wishes fulfilled but an end to us it so obvious for the republican party and by the way we don't like it we don't want or it's going know but but just because we don't like where it's going doesn't mean that you don't observe correctly and i believe that a ton of political pundits on the right yesterday it all it's my coddle thought it's amount mcconnell needs to be a leader it's mcconnell is mcconnell yet mcconnell yes ryan yeah it's the the the the the members of of of congress yet trump and yeah it is the gop voter right that's what it is slow because everyone tell me tell me that any of these individuals in the senate that they're not listening to the constituents of their state tell me that the in over in the house that they're not listening to the people of their districts i mean if it were remember i mean remember with with tarp and a number of things uh the um just the whole of over the last several years a whole list of things where the american people the voter i mean burned up the phones with tarp i think the show at the phones down on capitol hill uh and and the first vote didn't go remember they couldn't get it they couldn't get it done the first time well if that were the case on healthcare if they were doing the will of the people in their states in districts they shut the phones dan i know it's hard to swallow but it's the reality of where the republican party is eight six six.