37 Burst results for "The Next 12 Months"
The Dan Bongino Show
Shocking Video Reveals Hidden Truth of January 6th Incident
"Dan Bongino. Well, if you listen to my show before, I don't know if you just tuned in when you tuned in. But I was telling a story about these these new January six videos, which now clearly tell an entirely different side of the story. I said a lot of stuff happened on that day. We've talked about it fairly candidly on this show for a very long time. What bothers me is the left was looking to hide an entirely different side of what happened that day. Not us. It was them doing that. It's because they don't want you to see the entire story. They want you to see what just happened on one side. And one of the stories is about a really tragic case of a gentleman named Matthew Perna. And here to discuss that is a good friend and real warrior, his aunt, Jerry Perna. Jerry, thanks a lot for taking the time. We really appreciate you coming different on story. Well, thank you for having me on. Well, we met through Xtapes, this movie we did. And I remember seeing you on the, Dinesh had sent me kind of a screener rough cut of the movie. And I'm watching you talk about Matthew and what happened to Matthew my and wife. I looked over and she couldn't take it. Neither could I. It was such a horrible story. If you could tell the audience what happened with Matthew and just tell them what happened, your, your version of it is really kind of tough to listen to, but everyone needs to hear. Well, Matt went the to Capitol on January 6th. He thought he was going to be part of a celebration that day. The crowd was was big and he got into the crowd and it was announced that Mike Pence had certified the election results. It wasn't exactly what he had planned. And as the crowd moved forward, they the went to Capitol and he was in a huge crowd of people and he did go in. He went inside a had door been that previously had opened. He walked around inside the building filming from his phone and he walked out. He went back to his hotel. He made a live Facebook video talking about the day. The video is still visible on our website. He was very calm and cool just talking about the day. He made a comment that he said Mike Pence proved himself to be a traitor today. And he said, but don't worry. Don't worry. This isn't over yet. And basically the way he said it. And about a week or so later, I'm sitting on my couch in Florida. That's up in Pennsylvania. And I saw Facebook posts that said the FBI had posted pictures of people from January 6th. So I clicked on the link and I was scrolling through the photos. lo And and behold, there's Matt's picture. And I was speechless. I didn't know what to do. So I called I called one of my brothers up in Pennsylvania and I said, you need to go to Matt's house first thing in the morning. His picture is on the FBI website. So six o 'clock in the morning, my brother shows up at Matt's house and Matt already that knew his picture was there. And he had contacted a retired police officer and asked him what he should do. And he told him to call the local office of the FBI in Newcastle, Pennsylvania. So at nine o 'clock in the morning. That's exactly what Matt did. And Matt seriously thought this was all a huge understanding. He just needed to explain that he didn't hurt anybody. He didn't break anything. And he thought this would be resolved. And so the FBI came out to talk to him and I had a couple of my brothers there present as witnesses. And they listened to Matt's story and they made it seem like, yeah, it was just a misunderstanding. And they left and Matt called me and I said, you know, I don't like sound the of this. I said, I'm coming home. So I got on a plane and I flew home that week. I said, we need to get you a lawyer. And we did. We got him a lawyer and lo and behold, the FBI showed up and arrested Matt that week while I was there. And they took him in and they processed him and then they let him go. He was not placed in custody. He was told he had to report to somebody if he were to leave the area. And, um, and he was charged with form for misdemeanors, the regular ones, the parading and disorderly conduct. And, um, we met with his attorney. His attorney said, Oh, this is nothing. This is just a slap on the list. You've never been arrested for anything before. Don't worry about it. I've got this. Well, then they slapped 220 of the J fixers with the felony charge of obstruction of an official proceeding. And that's when it got serious. But attorney his was still saying, don't worry. This is, this is nothing. So somebody sent me video that they had of Matt outside of the Capitol at two 55 in the afternoon. says, And I well, that's almost 45 minutes after Congress adjourned. You hadn't even gone inside yet. And so I thought, well, there's your evidence right there. It's right there on video. You didn't go inside. You didn't obstruct anything. So I sent it to his attorney and attorney said, Nope, it doesn't matter. They said he was there. So it was an obstruction and that video isn't going to help. So this was a start of nightmare. a A nightmare watching Matt worry and deteriorate because the newspaper, Facebook, social media, everybody was brutal. They were showing the video from January six that everybody has seen countless times and calling it an insurrection. And that's community turned against him. Um, his business, which he ran through social media, um, was taken away from him. All of his accounts were disabled and it was house anymore. And he would have meetings with his attorney that were, he would have to go into the attorney's office and they they would meet with the judge via zoom because of the whole COVID mess. And they would cancel those meetings at the very last minute, every single time and postpone them. And it would just wear in him. Cause he would prepare himself mentally what he was going to say. And they would say, Oh, it's been canceled. And this went on for quite some time. And, um, Matt was deteriorating something awful. He no longer ran. He was a runner. Um, he gave away his television cause he couldn't stand to see the news anymore with his picture on it. His dad was who is my oldest brother has Parkinson's disease and it was affecting him something awful. And Matt felt felt very guilty about the effect it had on his dad. And as the year was coming to a close, it was almost Christmas. Matt had lost a ton of weight. He was vomiting at this point. And he told his attorney, I just need this to be over. What's the best way for this to be over his attorney said, plead guilty. You're looking at six to 12 months in a federal prison minimum security. And mass is okay. Then that's what I'll do. And Matt was going to, he told me, I'll turn it into a positive. He said, I'll teach my fellow inmates, help them get their GEDs. I'll work on another degree for self at the time that was very intelligent and very giving. So that was settled. And the hearing was scheduled for March the third. And a week before the hearing, Matt called his attorney and he said, I just have a bad feeling. It's just a bad feeling came over me. So that's the day my mother died March the third. And his attorney says, well, Matt, I have bad news. They've postponed your, your hearing again to April fool's day. And the prosecution is looking to add a of sentencing enhancement terrorism. And this could have taken Matt's sentence to nine years in jail. Matt called me on the phone sobbing that day, uncontrollably sobbing, sobbing. I couldn't hardly understand him. He kept telling me he loved me. He kept apologizing to me for losing all of my friends. Cause I lost every friend. I almost, almost everyone I ever had over this. And I told him, don't worry. We're going to get through this together. Don't worry. God's not going to let you go to jail. I promise you this. And he told me he loved me. I told him I loved him. And that And I, I can't tell you the devastation that our family has felt. We're a big Italian family. We're very close. We never had any of our nephews or nieces ever in trouble before. And, um, now that some of this video evidence came out this past week, and it seemed I didn't even know it was on Twitter. Somebody messaged me and said, this looks like your nephew. And there's Matt walking calmly through the Capitol past six Capitol police officers just standing there
CoinDesk Podcast Network
Fresh update on "the next 12 months" discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
"All right, Avery, after the break, we are to come back with Chris Duffy. Chris has had an amazing career. He's been at incredible creative agencies. He now really is part of the Strategic Development and Emerging Solutions team at Adobe. I know you know him pretty well. He's a very smart guy who's a big thinker in terms of AI, metaverse, Web3. Super excited to hear what he says. So after the break, we will come back with Chris. Chainalysis is the premier blockchain data platform. Crypto businesses, financial institutions and government agencies utilize Chainalysis data and services to answer their biggest questions about the blockchain. As regulators and policymakers work together to pass legislation that provides clarity for crypto businesses and protects consumers, they have the chance to do so with unparalleled data and research into the crypto ecosystem. Demystify cryptocurrency and gain greater visibility and insight by visiting Chainalysis.com slash Gen C. All right, welcome back. We are here with Chris Duffy. Chris, you are Strategic Development, Emerging Solutions at Adobe. So first of all, thank you so much for spending this time right before Thanksgiving with us. Where are we finding you today? Yeah, thanks for having me here in beautiful Miami, but still a New Yorker at heart. We all have a little New York in us. Yes, we do. All right. I want to dive in. Chris, you had such like a wild career. It feels like I was looking at your CV and you are like every hot ad agency that's ever been. I would love to sort of know your general career arc, what got you to Adobe, but really kind of your ethos of why kind of the creative lifestyle was one that you chose coming out of college. Thanks for that. Yeah, it was a wonderful journey. I did have the luxury of working at some of the great shops. Never Vayner, though. Not yet. Still time. I did have the opportunity to pitch against Vayner a few years ago, and I think it was the only time that there was not just a sole winner. So we both won. So I have to say that that was my Vayner pitch scenario. Yeah, it's been a wonderful journey for me. I spent about 20 years on the agency side, and in many ways my career mirrored the evolution of the creative industry. So when I first got in, it was very marketing design focused, kind of the traditional big brand creation, the storytelling, the campaign development. It then evolved into more of a product design focus, and that was kind of the byproduct of the mobile evolution revolution. And we did a lot of apps, and that then soon really evolved into digital experience design. And so it's been a wonderful journey across all of those different aspects of creativity. And here at Adobe, really focused on that enablement, empowerment of all of those different types of creativity as well. And Chris, I love that story about both of us winning the pitch. Amazing. We'll have to talk offline about what lucky client got to work with both groups. I have seen and talked with you a lot about the sort of next evolution of creativity and how AI is sort of fueling that. AI has been the topic du jour in 2023, and Adobe's really been at the forefront of this, and you've been part of that forefront as well. Can you talk a little bit about that, a little bit about how Adobe is thinking about incorporating generative AI and the tools that you build and the things that you bring to brands and creators? Yeah, thanks for bringing that up. It really has been quite an exciting 12 to 14 months here at Adobe, and I would say equally across the industry. With the caveat that as much as we're talking currently about AI, what's, I think, different about this moment that we're encountering is it's a convergence of three or four major technological transformations. And so we've got AI, and when we talk about AI currently, we're really talking about Gen AI. The second big transformative technology is the metaverse or immersive, and Sam and Avery, you've both been heavily involved in that. And then Web3 capabilities and principles that I think are really kind of helping reimagine both of those previous two technologies. The fourth, which I don't think we've talked enough about its impact that it's going to have, is quantum computing. And so I think we've got this convergence of three or four transformational technologies happening in parallel, but also individually. This time last year was all metaverse, and now the tide has somewhat shifted towards AI, but they're all going on an equal parallel path. So AI at Adobe has been central to what we've been doing for the past 15, 17 years or so in terms of software capabilities. The early days in terms of the creative industry were really heavily focused on automation of specific tasks or functions, and then predictive capabilities. And then with the kind of breakthrough inventions of some of the newer technologies, such as language transformers, which kind of really helped propagate large language models, the cans and the gans, generative adversarial networks, really kind of all came together for this new influx of creativity powered by Gen AI. And so just to put it in tangible terms, we launched our generative AI product service and capabilities earlier this year. It's now the fastest growing product in the history of Adobe, which says a lot. And within four months, we generated close to four billion outputs just to underscore how profound that is having an impact on our industry. So really exciting times to be really at the core of software development and engineering, but also to help embolden the creative community with those capabilities. I want to give a first just like a hat tip to Adobe, because I don't think people recognize, I remember being in the creative industries for all of us have been in for a really long time. And even just the idea that back in the day, you could kick up Photoshop. And if you wanted to emboss something, if you wanted to change the color, if you wanted to transform it, all of this were tools that suddenly were giving people the ability to be more creative than maybe their skill set allowed at the time. And so I think you don't get where we are today with the dollies and mid journeys of the world without sort of the work that Adobe did to kind of pioneer creative industries as the creativity should be a commodity and your brain should be the most sort of wondrous part of the whole thing. So I think that's been really a credit due to Adobe for a lot of this work. I was thinking the other day because I saw this TikTok of a creator who was really sick of her friends asking when she was going to get a boyfriend. And so she took photos of herself all over New York, and then she used the Photoshop generative tools to fill in, you know, she put her hand out and then she would say, fill my hand with another person's. And then she would, you know, posted all these photos as if she had a boyfriend around town. And I was just like, these tools allow people to really tell whatever stories they want to tell in a much more creative and imaginative way. And the fact that she was also doing it through the lens of the Photoshop generative AI tool was pretty fascinating to me. I would love to know kind of what are you seeing that's just like interesting use cases? What are the things that you get excited about how people are utilizing these tools? Like what's the stuff that really inspires you to the fact that Adobe has created an opportunity for people to be even more creative? Yeah, it sparked a number of memories off camera. We were talking about, you know, you went to school in Wisconsin and I grew up there and, you know, I would spend those cold winter days, nights quite often just at the computer, you know, with Photoshop. And in many ways that was a counterbalance to some of the feedback I would get in traditional design school where I would commonly get this comment or feedback my art or design had a sense of humor to it. And it wasn't intended to be humorous. It was just I didn't have that fidelity in the touch of the design. But when I was introduced to computer graphics, Photoshop, it really kind of unlocked the capability of what I had in my head and the ability to create that. And in many ways, Gen AI, Firefly, our new offering is really an extension of that. And the foundational belief is anyone anywhere at any time should be able to create. If you went to art school, design school, if you're just a professional communicator or if you have a birthday flyer you'd like to create. And that's really, I think, the core of the promise of Gen AI. At Adobe, you know, we tend to think of Gen AI in terms of four or five horizons, the first being generative images, kind of core to what Adobe is known for. Second is generative video. Third is generative 3D, which is going to be profound. And then the fourth is kind of generative code and generative text. And so when you start to see the expansiveness of Gen AI just on the content creation side, it's quite profound. But then when you zoom out even further and you see the impact it's going to have on the entirety of the industry, this is where I think people are really starting to lean in and seeing it not only as a technology, but as a true platform. Just to paint that picture. And that's kind of what I'm very heavily focused on is Gen Studio. And it's focused on this end to end offering of being able to ingest data insights in real time to help trigger the creation of content in faster and more effective ways, and then distribute it even more effectively. And we're starting to create this flywheel of optimization and effectiveness. So it's really quite exciting to be a part of and quite exciting, maybe even more so, to see how people are using the tools. I think the output of that is, you know, quite often the narrative when organizations are contemplating Gen AI is they default, and I get it, to efficiency and operational savings. And in many ways, that's great. But in other ways, it's almost a race to the bottom for bottom line growth efficiency. The true opportunity is what is an organization going to do with all of that free time for top line growth, for reinvention? And I think this is where those other technologies are starting to come into play. I think that AI is just kind of triggering this ability to create great efficiencies, but also prompt some reinvention going forward. Chris, I love hearing the passion in your voice as you talk through this. You obviously care about this a lot, and you see how it can drive efficiencies and effectiveness. Are there any favorite case studies that you've seen, whether it's a brand, it's a creator, it's even something that you all have done internally, that you're like, wow, this wouldn't have been possible without generative AI two years ago? Yeah, you know, in many ways, a lot of my examples are case studies of Adobe. So somewhat meta, but we use our tools to make our tools, to market our tools. And, you know, we've had to kind of reinvent a lot of our thinking and processes because of these new tools. To share a couple of those examples that kind of are very close to home are, we even had to rethink how we go to market with our products in terms of, quite often when we were creating products or shipping products, we'd always multiple times throughout the creation process or design process, really ask ourselves, have we taken out as much friction for the user to learn the product? And now with Gen AI, it's almost inversed where the question is, have we embedded enough learning intelligence into the product itself that it will learn the user? Which I think is a really interesting metaphor for how the industry is going to start to leverage these technologies going forward. A second one is as excited as we were about the technology. And Sam, you brought up that use case of the ability for a user to create different scenarios. We wanted to be very thoughtful in terms of predicting unintended consequences. And so we wanted to create some guardrails. And the first one was we train the system on Adobe Stock, which means everything that's generated out of Firefly is 100% indemnified and it's commercial ready. We need to replay this one key thing for all my lawyers who listen, all my CMOs who are worried about this type of thing. Chris, I think that's such an important point to double down on. I think that indemnification really changed the game for a lot of our partners in their willingness to explore and experiment and get hands on because that is a huge deal. Completely agree. I think that's one of the biggest considerations for organizational adoption. And then a second aspect is if Adobe is all about creativity, we really wanted to monetize the contributors. So we have a monetization model for the contributors that the model is training off of, which, again, I think taps into the earlier point about how Web3 principles are starting to get infused across these other technologies. And then the last, but I think equally important, is we created an industry wide consortium comprised of about 2000 companies across software, hardware and media channels. And this adds a layer of transparency and traceability across content. And so now think of it almost as a nutritional label that is embedded into content. And so now you can see when and where the content was trained on, when and where it was augmented, when and where it was distributed. And we're getting to a point where the effectiveness and the usage of the content is embedded into the content as well. And again, that's kind of that convergence with Web3 technology coming together as well. So those are a couple use cases that we've been contemplating working on leveraging Gen AI. Maybe a third kind of external use case that we're starting to see is I think academically and in the industry we've been talking a lot about for years now, the ability to do personalization. And I think with Gen AI, we truly have now the capabilities. What we're now seeing is a hint towards the very near future of immersive AI. You know, everyone already has the ability to take a picture on their phone, turn it into a 3D model. Now imagine that everyone can take that 3D model, bring it into a generative solution and start to augment that 3D model for immersive experience, which is quite exciting. A little further out from that is micro agents and individualization of LLMs, which is going to be quite exciting. Yesterday, we announced intent to acquire a company that will help create digital agents from that standpoint as well. Chris, I want to rewind on a couple of things you said, because I think they're important. The first thing that you brought up that to me I hadn't thought about, but I think it ties into a larger area I've been thinking about is this idea that we will all have these digital companions that we can have an ever long conversation that is always referential back to other parts of the conversation we've had. And for anyone who uses chat GPT on their mobile device and the fact that you can just turn on your headphones and microphone and start having a conversation, you can see the power of that. Where what you said really triggered for me was this opportunity that you can also have an individual and unique experience with any of these applications. To use your words, it can learn you as much as you are learning it, which I think is also such an amazing way of thinking about Gen AI from a tooling perspective and the idea that you don't have to remember these nine key codes to turn this thing into that thing. Like you might have had to do at Photoshop and Illustrator that you could have a conversation. You can say, Hey, remember that thing I did a year ago? Let's do that again. And it'll know if you will. And I think that's really interesting. I would also love to, you know, I don't know if you're comfortable pulling back the curtain, but you know, the conversations internally about let's make sure that everything that we output is usable by brands and creators without impact. Legally, I can only echo what Avery was saying. It's so transformative for people who do want to play in this space because they've been worried so much with the chat GPTs and the anthropics and the mid journeys just about whether they're being trained on. It sounds like you guys early on just to said, let's make sure to train it on all things we own and therefore we can really give that license. So what was that conversation like as far as you were involved? When we're talking about the past, we're talking about just a few months ago. So this is all very much in real time. A sub point to maybe jump ahead is we also had to make the call, could the system train off of generative AI? And we made the decision not to because then that kind of clouds a cleaner lineage of attribution where it came from. And so, yeah, I think the question and answer was quite clear in terms of if we are going to create a generative AI solution, how can we make sure that we're celebrating provenance and protecting IP and so on? And so we had that repository of images, videos and 3D that luckily we could really kind of create that sandbox for commercial grade opportunities, which is, you know, I think really great for us and great for our end users. We also do want to provide the ability for end users to even customize it a step further. So we're now offering the ability for customers to, yes, use our system, but to augment it and enhance it with their own training data. And so that allows for greater customization from an end user standpoint as well. So that'll be kind of the next phase that we're focused on. And that inherently gets very technically complex in terms of, yeah, how do you ping the clouds and the infrastructure and the latency? We're down to, you know, every generation is well under 15 seconds. And so how can enterprises tap into an infrastructure that allows for that as well? Yeah, I think that that's a really interesting opportunity because ultimately, you know, we show this type of thing to partners all the time and they're like, yeah, this is great. But like if I'm bank A, can't bank B get the same thing by doing their prompts and they want their brand tonality, their lookbook, the look and feel that they refined over decades or centuries to be reflected and trained into a new model. So it's amazing that Adobe is building those capabilities. And same for an artist, right? Like they might have their own signature style that they want to bring into this medium. So I think that that'll be really interesting. Any sense of when that will be rolling out to the general public or is that under wraps? We're working on some in motion pilots currently, so that should be very soon. Ava, you brought up a couple other scenarios that you bring to mind that we did have to make some calls on where is the border in terms of if there is an artist style that you can reference. And so there are some safeguards and parameters in terms of not being able to reference a well-known artist as well. The second, I think, more broadly that the industry is realizing is in many ways, it's a new skill to the art of the prompt. Quite often when we first released some of the betas, we were getting feedback. The outputs were not as they had hoped. And what we found was it wasn't actually the system, it was the artfulness or the craft of the prompts. And so I think that's where, again, Sam, to your earlier point on this higher level of critical thinking, creative ability will never go away. It's just going to evolve. And so one of the evolutions will be the art of the prompt to get the output that you want. Yeah, you've got to refine it. Prompt engineering is a big, big thing. Now let's sort of pivot the conversation a little bit and jump into metaverse and immersive. What are people getting wrong in how they were thinking about the metaverse and sort of this new immersive reality? You know, to our earlier point, if we were talking this time last year, I'm sure this conversation would have started with the metaverse and maybe it would have taken up the entirety of the conversation. It's been interesting to see a very similar arc or hype cycle with the metaverse and AI. And so for better or worse, we tend to over-hype the beginnings. We tend to over-promise and then under-deliver as emerging technologists. Yeah. And so I recently had the opportunity to judge the CES category for the metaverse. I have to say with 100 percent conviction, it is coming fast and the outputs and use cases are really quite exciting. I do get a sense the more immediate use cases for the metaverse will be the industrial metaverse, everything from manufacturing, healthcare and scenarios like that. And so I think that will be probably a tipping point for the metaverse. But Avery, to be more specific to your question, think what people tend to get wrong about the metaverse or not people so much. Maybe the media or the headline trying to distill it down is quite often I hear, do we really need another technology to lock us into more screen time? And I think that's a fundamental misunderstanding of the technology, but also the intent of the technology to really kind of simplify the definition of the metaverse. It's really the convergence of the digital and the physical world coming together. And the hope is it will take us off of and out of staring at a screen to really converge those two together. So there's multiple use cases, obviously. People still tend to think of metaverse as VR gaming and that's one use case. But there's multiple avenues and on-ramps into the metaverse and we're still very much just in the beginning innings of this more immersive AI. But Chris, I think that your point, which I just want to put a sharper edge on, is that one, a year ago we were talking about the metaverse a little bit too much. But what we weren't talking about was all of the places that we are engaging with 3D content, with virtual or mixed or augmented worlds. And those are just happening more and more and more. And anyone who's under 25 spends a lot of time in those worlds every day, right? So you mentioned earlier the ability even just to take your phone out, scan an object and be able to do something with that, which a lot of people still don't even know they can do. But the fact is, whether it's one of your tools or a lot of the other places, and then you combine a game engine with it and suddenly you start to see that, whether it's understanding whether there is an apartment available in a building you're seeing across the street or you want to see if furniture is going to fit in your apartment or whether glasses look good on your face, all of that is part of the same conversation. And I think the tool set of big GPU engines that can drive the contextual information around the experiences that we live every day is such a big unlock, this concept of digital twinning and the contextual layers that need creative tools, they need big thinkers, they need obviously big data and AI to make all of this happen. But I guess I feel like that people underestimate, one, just the power of gaming through the lens of game engines. Game engines can do so much that they are seen and relegated to things we play on our phone and things we play on our TV. But they're not, I would say, they're not thinking through that next layer of the physical world around us is the biggest canvas that exists. Coming into this call, that's what prompted the memory, Avery, of the pitch. I won't say the customer, but that was about 10 years ago, and that was an immersive healthcare use case for patients to go in and have an immersive experience. What's old is new. Yeah, right, has been around. We just didn't have the technology or the infrastructure to enable it. So I think it's going to be quite exciting to see how the industry and customers are going to really start to embrace this more fully going forward. I do want to acknowledge, I think we're still somewhat missing that iPhone moment in terms of the hardware, which is still kind of a speed bump for broader adoption in the industrial metaverse. I think we've got some great form factors from a consumer standpoint. I think we're getting pretty close, but we haven't had that iPhone moment yet for the metaverse, unfortunately. There's always the humane AI pin. Yeah, exactly. Maybe that's it. Maybe it's right in front. It could be coming next. So I'd also be curious as we sort of talk about this blender of all different emerging technologies from 10 years ago with virtual assistants, which by the way are also coming back to what we've seen in the world of metaverse. We've seen in also the conversation in AI, like if you even look at Google Trends, like got really hot, cooled off, even like usage was down for a couple months this summer. It's actually back up, which is interesting to see across a few of the big platforms. This week, there was tons of chatter around open AI where Sam Altman is, of course, back as the founder. But sort of wrapped up in this, I'd love to understand your opinion of Web3 so far and how you see it interacting with these technologies. Is Web3 the sort of wrapper that includes all of them? Is Web3 a specific part of this next era of the internet? How do you think about how it interplays with some of the things we've talked about in this call? I think that's one of the great contemplations happening right now. Even 24 months ago, maybe 36 months ago, quite often the metaverse immersive AI and Web3 were getting conflated. And there were one school of thought that they were one in the same, different principles, but they were very interlinked. There was another school that they are distinctly different, but complementary. And that's kind of where I really am a big advocate, believer in. I think Web3, again, is a natural evolution of the web, right? We have Web1, which was really kind of this read-only environment with this belief promise of really helping democratize the access of information. We then went into Web2, which was a primarily read-write scenario where it was bi-directional. We then went into Web3.0, which is distinctly different. Again, I don't know why we do this to ourselves, but it is distinctly different than Web3. So Web3 is the semantic web, which was founded on this belief of creating language that the computer could understand the information. We kind of leapfrogged semantic web with LLMs. And so now we're at Web3, which is really founded on this belief of co-ownership, co-creation. It's not about monetizing people's time or attention. It's really about rewarding their time and attention. Big credit to both of you, because I think you both helped advance the industry and the adoption, right? I remember early in the pandemic when vFriends was getting announced, and I think that just propelled everyone to figure out, oh, this is how I get a digital wallet. I think that can be directly attributed to capturing the excitement and tapping into culture. Thank you. As much as I love technology, we can't underestimate the ability to bridge technology to culture and emotion. I think those two have to go hand in hand. I think Web3, to your point, Avery, I think it's still probably TBD. And I debate this internally and we debate this across the industry. Is AI kind of the big sphere and metaverse and Web3 are kind of sub points to that, or is Web3 kind of the big? I don't know if that's fully formed yet. It's probably still TBD. What I do know for certain is they're all inevitable. They're all kind of getting developed very quickly and they're converging. And I think we'll just amplify each other going forward. Hey, Chris, before we let you go, my final question for you is you are someone who kind of has this somewhat amazing job. If people think about the idea that you get to play in an unbelievably creative sandbox with some of the biggest companies and biggest creators in the world using your tools and coming to you guys for kind of collaboration. What do you look at that inspires you? How do you get inspired for what's going to come next? Where are the places you're reading? Is it coming from science fiction? Is it coming out of science? Where do you get your spark to keep doing what you're doing? Maybe I think the consistency is creation. However you want to define that. Is it design? Is it creativity? Is it product design and so on? I think the underlying common thread throughout my career is this ability to create in many ways something new or help build something new. I find that quite energizing and exciting. I think that the caveat and we're seeing it even more evident is how do organizations become more agile? How do they create organizational mindset and infrastructure to change and create change? I think that's going to be one of the biggest considerations over the next 12 months. We get the technology. We understand the business need. How do we create almost a manufacturing process to ingest, adopt and leverage these technologies going forward? I think that's a big consideration and probably the competitive advantage for organizations going forward and individuals. I would say the ability to adapt quickly will be a competitive advantage going forward. Innovator Di says Chris Duffy and that is a perfect way to end this show. Chris, thank you so much for taking the time to join us, especially the day before Thanksgiving. We are so grateful for you sharing your insights, sharing your knowledge, sharing your decades of experience in marketing and emerging tech. Sounds like we'll have to get it during some time and swap some old pitch stories. If we ever got to bring that virtual program to life together. Sounds good. Thanks again. Thanks, Chris. Avery, thank you for helping to set up that conversation with Chris. I was really excited to talk to him, especially with all the stuff that Adobe has been doing in the AI space. I was actually really chuffed. Yes, I said chuffed and I'm not British. I was very excited to hear also how bullish he is on the general sense of metaverse gaming, Web3, blockchain. He seems to touch all those buttons. I was really happy to hear that they're thinking about that from a corporate level at Adobe. What were your thoughts? We adore Adobe. We do a lot of fun stuff with them as partners and, you know, both also like using their tools, like every single person in our ecosystem is proficient at the Adobe suite. So I've been really impressed with how Adobe has leaned into generative AI, through generative fill and through Firefly and a number of their other sort of to be announced features. Some folks from my team just went to their like big demo day and got a lot out of it. We were able to bring some partners there as well. So I am all in on Adobe linear into AI. And I also what I love about it is it's super usable and it's also super enterprise ready. I think we're balancing the upstarts right now with the established players. And, you know, it's awesome to see some of these big tech companies really moving with speed towards this opportunity. And, you know, Chris espoused a lot of the values that Adobe brings and things through in the space. And he's obviously very well educated across a number of different topics. So just fun to work with him. Yeah, absolutely. Well, look, I know it is the day before Thanksgiving. We're both eager to jump to it. So I'm going to let you go. And audience have a great holiday. This will come out on Monday, but we're just preemptively getting there. And we hope you guys have had a great time and we look forward to talking to you next week. Take care, Nancy. See you next week.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | What JPMorgan Analysts Missed About Bitcoin's Rally
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group and PayPal. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice and turn on notifications. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now a markets roundup. After the hectic activity at the end of last week as markets reacted to BlackRock's filing of an EtherSpot ETF proposal, the weekend seemed like an oasis of calm. So far today, the market looks mixed. According to Coindesk Indices, at 9 a .m. Eastern Time this morning, Bitcoin was down two thirds of a percent over the past 24 hours, trading at $36 ,873. Ether was up one third, trading at $2 ,059. Elsewhere, Filecoin was up 14%, Cosmos was up 10%, Optimism and the Lido DAO token were up 5%. Solana was down 1 % after what has been an astonishing run. Over the past week, the asset is up over 40%. You may remember that in an early October episode, I pulled out the average performance of Bitcoin for the month of October going back to 2010, which was 27%. I calculated that if Bitcoin achieved that average performance during the month, the price would reach just over $34 ,000. Well, that's pretty much what happened. Do please note, I am not saying I know where the price is going, and the October result was pure coincidence, I don't have a crystal ball. But let's try the same exercise for November just for fun. November historically has been on average an even better month than October, with an average performance going back to 2011 of 44%. If this November meets its average, and it's a big if, that would put the Bitcoin price at just over $49 ,000. It's a pleasant thing to keep in mind. In macro indicators, today I have more news from the University of Michigan Consumer Survey. You may remember a couple of weeks ago, I talked about why this survey was worth watching. It's because of what it says about how consumers are feeling, which could impact future spending. Well, on Friday, we got the details for October, and there are some worrying signals in there. Inflation expectations one year out are now at 4 .4%, much higher than the expected 4%, and higher than September's 4 .2%. This is the highest level since May, which signals that the rate hikes are not doing what they're supposed to do, which is bring down corporate and consumer spending and reset expectations. The fact that consumer inflation expectations are more than double the official target is not nearly as worrying as the fact that they are heading up. And it's especially relevant since it is something Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he keeps an eye on, as inflation expectations can influence behavior. This rise in the University of Michigan's survey result further confirms that rate cuts are not on the table just yet, and probably won't be for a while, at least until this number comes down to close to 2%. The University of Michigan inflation expectations for five years out also came in higher than expected at 3 .2%. This is lower than the 12 -month expectations, which is good, but it does send the signal that the Fed's inflation target won't be reached even in five years.
Real Estate Coaching Radio
Fresh update on "the next 12 months" discussed on Real Estate Coaching Radio
"And 2023, I'm just thinking, what made me laugh is we have a lot of our coaching clients that had their best years ever in 2023 and it was the worst year in over 40 years in real estate. So imagine how well they'll do when things start bouncing back. Exactly. So really the moral of the story is that in this new year, you're going to have a lot of new rules and sort of, I will call them rules because with regards to buyer agency and some other things, there will be new rules that will be put in place that you're going to have to, you know, learn to work with and really as a lead generation and how you're going to manage your team and the expectations for profitability. All of these things are going to have to be taken into consideration when you're completing your real estate treasure map, when you're planning on what your new year is going to be like and it's okay and you should give yourself permission to hit hard reset on all of the decisions that you made. So if your decision was to buy a bunch of buyer leads and distribute them to a bunch of buyer's agents, why don't we take this time of year to do a hard reset on that and actually do a profit and loss just on those buyer agent transactions? Those types of thoughts, the branding and the marketing, that stuff is great. It definitely has a place in your business, but is it actually producing profit? Is that something you should be doing this time of year or even in 2024? So go through all of the things, remember I said get back to first principles, go through all the things that you've made decisions about, that you're spending money on. All of your beliefs and just, you know, test them, test those principles, find out if they're actually working, run them through a set of filters. Our suggestion is when you're making decisions about business decisions in particular, you base them on the profitability of the decision that you're making. And there's a great book, again this is something Jolene and I listened to, you can obviously read it as well, called Profits Aren't Everything, They're the Only Thing, I don't remember the author's name, Profits Aren't Everything, They're the Only Thing. I'd strongly suggest you read that book, perfect book for this type of, frankly, economy and real estate market. Totally agree. It's a little bit harsh, it's a little bit, shall we say, reality-based, it will make you think bigger thoughts, but I agree, I think that's a great book. It keeps it more in the business and less of the emotion, which is important. Okay, so first the facts. According to the National Association of Realtors, a whopping 87% of Realtors will fail within their first five years. Now, I hate that stat and one of the things that we do in coaching and on this podcast is do our best to fight that stat every single podcast, every single coaching call, every single coaching session with our premier coaching clients. Now, on the other hand, the top 1% of real estate agents in the U.S. make over a half million dollars in annual income. The median income is $50,000. So keep in mind that it does only take, on average, about five sales per year to make 50 grand. Now, most of you can do that by working part-time. These are just some facts to start out before we get to the rules. 20% of licensees make up 80% of closed real estate transactions. 20% of agents make more than $200,000 yearly. Now, the only question you should be asking yourself with these stats is what percentage will you be? Follow the 15 rules, which are not, again, just for new agents, but for all agents and you'll be in that top 10% or better. If you choose to wing it and just see how it goes, you'll probably wind up in that first 87% who fail in five years or less. Your only mantra should be, starting now, going forward, certainly in 2024, if it's meant to be, it's up to me. So adopt that as your hourly affirmation, at least daily affirmation, starting today. Let's roll into part one. You know, my mind was filling with, you and I just listened to a podcast and it's very easy for people to say this, but then you get them to test their thesis and they never have an answer for it. But I'm hearing more and more people say, because of the changes to buyer agent commissions and all the rest of it, there's going to be as much as a 20 to 40% drop off in the number of agents, number of members of National Association of Vultures. I don't understand why that would be true, honestly. I don't either. I disagree with that. I do. I can't work my mind around that. And if you go back in time and you look at the number of agents or number of people even getting licenses, all the way back to like, say, for example, the only thing we can really compare this to would be the late 70s, early 80s, there were more people getting licenses. There were still real estate transactions happening, even when the interest rates were double digit. But I also don't understand why they would think, like, um, why they would think there'd be fewer real estate agents if in a market or an economy where inflation is making everything more expensive, people wouldn't want to keep their licenses just in case they can pick up a deal here and there to help make ends meet and pay for a vacation. Keeping in mind that it only takes five deals to make 50 grand, that's a pretty rocking vacation if that's your side hustle, but otherwise it certainly makes sense to keep your license active. And I have to say, Tim, just this morning in my, you know, check-ins with different people that we know, I had two people in our personal center of influence tell me that they're taking the real estate test in the next week. Because that's what people do when, you know, you hear this thing about, uh, you know, people getting second jobs and, you know, side hustles and all the rest of it. Well, real estate always has been kind of that. That's true. Well, considering that 20% of the agents do 80% of the deals, that illustrates that, doesn't it? That's just, that's, you're circling the wagons around this, you know, this grander point. I cannot conceive why it would be fewer agents. Me neither. If anything, I think there'll be more agents. Now, look, if you, uh, defrag or, uh, detach the national members, uh, being a required member of National Association of Vultures from your local MOS, you know, Redfin just basically said that they aren't requiring their agents to be members of National Association of Vultures. And by the way, Julie and I are huge advocates and supporters of National Association of Vultures. And if anything, uh, NAR has done a really bad job of explaining how relevant they are to our industry. But that aside, a lot of agents would use the, you know, inexperienced, low-producing agents might say, well, I'm going to drop out because I don't want to pay my annual NAR due or my annual, well, it looks like it's going to be something that's no longer going to be required. So the, uh, cost of maintaining a license is even going to be reduced. So the only, I think, argument against why there might be a drop off in agents is because people don't want to pay their $1,000 or, you know, $1,200 and all their combined annual fees to be, uh, you know, an agent. Well, that's getting cut by half or whatever. Now it's less. So we think there's going to be increased the number of agents, but I'm jumping on one of our points for the upcoming prediction show. Yes. The cliffhanger. Yes. Okay. So let's jump into these 15 rules for being successful starting today, going into next year. Certainly my number one pick or in some cases, repick your broker wisely. It's not just about commission splits. Does your broker have stock awards, health insurance, daily education and revenue share? It's costly to start with or stay with the wrong brokerage, especially in a changing market. Having to switch later costs not only time but money. So make the right decision the first time. As a side note, exp paid over $240 million in revenue share just last year and equity benefits. And that's up in a down year by 20%. Well that's the big, all the time new agents will say, I want to, you know, I want to change brokers. Well, why do you want to change brokers? Because you guys didn't ask the right questions when you're choosing your broker in the first place. It's not their fault. They didn't know. Well, yeah, I would say, but if they're going to listen to this podcast than it is their fault. No excuse. Exactly. Well, they'll say things like, well, they were local to me. Well, the broker was going to spend a lot of time with me. I thought I was going to get mentorship. You had really some, you had expectations that have not been met as a new agent. Well guess what? Because the brokers know that 87% of you are going to be out of the business within 60 months and most brokerages run what were traditionally called body shops. In other words, they're constantly going through agents and agents are coming and agents are going because the 80 20 rule has been there forever. I mean, it's not even a rule. It's just sort of the standard of fact. Yeah. Well, guess what? If you choose a broker and you aren't careful with the broker you choose and you're broke, you chose the local broker who maybe promised you that they're going to do a lot of mentoring and you know, most of them never do because they're too busy themselves and you also agreed to pay a 50 50 commission split and the, and you do sell, you know, 10 houses in your first year. Congratulations go you. You've made your a hundred thousand or 75,000 even more. Well, you just paid 50% of that to the broker cause you made a bad decision right out of the gates. Some of you are stuck in that paradigm now where you made the bad decision two or three years ago and you're now, you know, looking at the finances from having the cost of having made that decision. And this is an excellent time for you to hit hard reset on that. Julie and I are huge advocates of exp royalty in our opinion, it is the best real estate brokers model that there ever has been because it is truly agent centric in the sense that you can earn money multiple different ways with as being an exp agent in the past. The question was always about what are you paying your broker, right? That would have been, what are you paying your broker as in your commission split nowadays it's what is your broker paying you if you're an exp royalty agent? Julie and I feel that joining exp for us in 2019 was the best business decision we've made aside from, you know, it was one of the top five business decisions we ever made for sure. So that's something you definitely should be looking into. Look, we've made it very easy for you. The link to learn more about our exp royalty group is down below. Or if you'd like you can and you're ready to join exp royalty, just text me directly at 512-758-0206. Alright, so rule number two, commit to earning while you learn and be learning all the time. You don't have to be perfect to be productive. You must take action from day one in order to build your skills quickly and you have to make about at least five times the effort that you probably think to get the results that you're looking for. For example, I have a note in here the best people to role play with are actual prospects with actual homes to sell. Some of you get stuck getting ready to get started to do more analytics, more role play, more business planning, and more of this and more of that before you actually do the effort which will lead to a paycheck. Well what it required for you to be successful, I think 2023 was a real litmus test for most practitioners to play, but if you're benchmarking the amount of effort you should put forth from say prior to 2000 to 2002 or something like that or even before that and you're thinking well I am putting more effort than I did before. Julie said 5x but in many markets it's going to be more like 10x. So if it took you this amount of effort to make this amount of money, you're going to have to enter into the year with the assumption that it's going to require 10x the effort and we're going to break it down here in our additional points, drill down on what that means, and in many cases it's not necessarily you putting in more time but it's how you're allocating your time and the effort in which you're putting into that particular effort. Like for example if you're going to be working, well Julie's next point. Okay so for example number three, create your center of influence or your sphere of influence and expand it daily. These are the people you know already, you hear us talk about sphere of influence, center of influence, COI, all these terms, these are the people you already know. They know, love, and trust you and as such they're almost always your first three to five transactions as a new agent but when you do this right it will continue to be your strongest source of business. So use your smartphone contacts to get started or to polish up your database if you've already got one working. Talk about real estate all the time with everyone. Learn the Ford memory jogger and internalize it. Use it all the time. That's talking about family, occupation, recreation, and dreams when you're talking to people in that database. Always have some speaking points about what's happening in real estate. This is one of the things that all of our coaches do every week. We make sure that you have something of value to be sharing. Always have those speaking points about what is currently happening in real estate. You can also get that from your board of realtors monthly or weekly newsletter. List reports is a great source and certainly this podcast we keep you up to speed. So for example are rates going up or down? What's going on with new construction? How many days does it take to sell a home in your market? What types of mortgages are most attractive in today's market? Provide value and be a problem solver. For example if I was calling in the Austin market because I get the stats in Austin I would be able to talk about the fact that yes prices have come down a bit. Austin was one of our hottest markets during the pandemic. The average sell price has gone from $700,000 to $650,000 but it's been sitting at $650,000 for about the past six months. Average days in the market were 10 during the pandemic. Now they're up to about 65 days on the market. None of that is bad news but if you were centered on just the headlines, oh there's lots of price reductions in Austin. Well you have to define that. So if I were calling a center of influence in Austin I would have things like that to talk about followed by asking what questions do they have about what's happening for them with their real estate. Well we obviously have tons of scripts in Premier Coaching exactly what they should say and how they should say it. We've also done a lot of podcasts on it but statistically here's what's really interesting and maybe you'll remember these numbers but after I think it was five years in the business something like 76% of all real estate agents or the average real estate agent who completed the NAR survey, their business came from centers of influence and past clients and the increase in the amount of business that comes from centers of influence and past clients, you really start to feel it right around year three when you're in the business. So the real way to make this have the compounding effect of centers of influence and past client, the easier referrals in real estate is really do great over the next 12 months, build as many of those past obviously sells many houses you can but also build your centers of influence and past client list as large as you can even if those people aren't doing a transaction with you and be conscientious of it, be considerate of it, always be thinking about who can you add to the list, how can you bring value to their lives and that business or those you know very socially easy contacts will often turn into multiple transactions over the course of your career. Agents who fail, the you know most agents who fail out of the business that's the number one thing, number one reason they fail is because they don't appreciate the importance of centers of influence and past clients, they spend too much money on branding, marketing, buying buyer leads, all the other things, they're not really drilling down on what is the most effective, least costly, most you know frankly easiest business to get. I'm glad you drilled down on that because it's really true and I think one thing that happens with newer agents, they'll pop a few easy first deals, three to five transactions and they'll start to believe that that's how it's always going to be but those were just the most obvious people and you're excited, you just got licensed, you're talking about real estate all the time. If you don't nurture this then it will fall off and you won't see that big surge in repeat and referral business that you talk about for the fourth and fifth year right in there so this is why we have a huge section in Premier Coaching that's all about not just how to work your database but how to expand your database, what are the types of conversations and scripts that you can be having to make sure that you get that surge of business. By the way, any successful business, that's ultimately what becomes of their business. They're just like if you think of Netflix, Netflix has this great huge value in the marketplace because they have you know millions of centers of you know past clients that are doing business with them every month through their recurring fee right. Any business is built on taking care of your customers and even if these again your centers of influence and past clients don't have to actually be past real estate clients. They can be people you know from church or your neighbors, your old neighbors, your new neighbors. Put them all on the list and then use our system that's included in Premier Coaching to start bringing value to them every single month. By the way, we ask you to do it in the most cost effective way possible which is picking up the phone. Yes and we do of course tell you exactly what to say and how to handle those conversations. Rule number four, understand what actually makes you money in real estate and spend ninety percent of your time on those activities. Seems logical. Well what are those things? Proactive lead generation, furiously fast lead follow-up, pre-qualifying using the proven scripts, presenting, negotiating and closing and then lather, rinse, repeat. Your most important skills are those. You can hire somebody to process your transactions once you know the process. When you get great at lead generation really the rest of it takes care of itself. That's why we have so many podcasts about lead generation is because when you're good at that you'll have to pre-qualify. You'll have to present, negotiate, close, etc. So there's a quote by John Maxwell. He said, the secret of your success is determined by your daily agenda. Which brings us back to the treasure map we've been talking about on this podcast. Make sure that you're following that plan. It covers all the things we presented so far. Leading up to number five, understand the spokes in the wheel model. Choose your lead generation spokes wisely and work them daily. Our coaching clients have their spokes in the wheel model posted on their wall, focusing mainly on people who clearly have the desire to sell their homes and supplement with regular communication to your database, like the previous point. Our favorite list of spokes, which everyone can utilize, starts with your center of influence. Those are your database, friends, family, neighbors. Who is becoming an empty nester? Who's getting relocated? Having another baby? Wanting to build? Considering buying a rental? Your database can be a goldmine when you communicate regularly. Julie, explain to them what the spokes in the wheel analogy is. Okay. So imagine you're putting together a bicycle. You've got the spokes. You're assembling this yourself. Well, let's say that you decide to skip some directions, and you only have one spoke in the wheel. You want to take it out for a spin, and you know, you can kind of get up there, but hit a rock or a pothole. You're going to wipe out because you only have one spoke. You're a one-spoke wonder, as we nickname. That's exactly like lead generation. Your spokes are your sources. So all of you should start with a strong first spoke. That's your center of influence, your database, and then add spokes from there because the integrity of your lead generation wheel is going to be so much better when you have multiple spokes. So let's say, for example, you are good at talking to your center of influence, but for the past two weeks, nobody's said that they want to buy or sell. Well, if you're really also good at something like expireds, probate, new construction, any of the other spokes that we teach, well, you're going to still be transactional because somebody will want to be buying or selling with you from your other spokes. When you do this every single day, you're ironing out the ups and downs. The agents typically want to believe there's some kind of magic easy button that if I just do this or I just subscribe to that or I just hit this easy button, that that's my lead generation solution. The solution is to have multiple spokes in your wheel. So the spokes that we suggest are all outlined in the real estate treasure map, which you get for free when you join Premier Coaching. But philosophically, how Julie and I approach this is you want to do the proactive lead generation spokes first and then the passive lead generation spokes second. Why? Because if you're, for example, calling unrepresented owners or for sale by owners, you know for sure that that's a seller that has to sell. So the only thing standing in the way of you taking that listing is the seller's motivation and your skill set. That's something ultimately you can control, unlike all the passive stuff, which would be marketing, branding, direct mail, all that stuff. You can't actually control, know for sure that that effort is going to equal that result, whereas you can if you're directly calling that seller who has their hand in the air saying, yes, I have a house to sell. So what we want you to do is get really good at the proactive lead generation stuff. And then over time, if you choose to, you can then supplement or reinforce your proactive lead generation with a passive. For example, if you are calling that for sale by owner in that particular neighborhood, but you're also mailing postcards, the fact that they have higher they might have higher familiarity with you because they received the postcards will give you an advantage when it comes to actually earning that listing. Excellent point. You have to do both. All right. Number six, commit to profitability. Don't blow your money on the three worst bees buying by our leads, building your brand or building a team. You don't actually need to do any of these things to be successful and profitable. In fact, concentrating on those things or leading with those things can actually drive your profitability into the ground. So here's a question, a mindset question. Are you thinking about profitability all the time? Are you tracking, I mean, our coaching clients get this, ask this all the time. Are you on track ahead or behind or are you just seeing how the year turns out? Some of you feel like, well, I feel like I was behind last year. But you can't define by how much, how many transactions, how much money are you on track ahead or behind? If you're ahead by how much, what caused that? You've got to have the mindset of profitability. Speaking of which, related to that, number seven, pay yourself first. This is for new agents from the get go and all of you grizzled veterans as well. Pay yourself first. Ten percent minimum to your savings, 20 percent to your tax account and the rest your operations account. Save more if possible right from the beginning. But don't mix these accounts and don't get behind on your taxes. And for all the thousands of you in your in our exp royalty group that are listening, there's over three thousand of you. I'll suggest that you take a little look see as to as far as what your stock awards are, because a lot of you aren't aware that you've been earning stock awards while you're exp realty. In other words, exp has made it so that you have a forced savings account. You might want to take a look at that because I think a lot of you are going to have a nice smile on your faces after you realize how much money that exp has scrolled away for you because of the stock awards that you've earned. You earned stock awards at exp for selling your first house when someone you sponsor sells a house. You can buy exp realty expi shares at a discount when you sell a house. All kinds of amazing ways for you to build wealth and create more financial security for yourself. But really, fundamentally, we do want you to save 10 percent to start off every single nickel that you earn. You've got to pay yourself first. The old way of doing things where people say, well, just save what's left. There'll never be anything left because you're always going to figure out another way to spend the money. So this gets back to the book we suggested earlier was profits aren't everything. They're the only thing. That's where Julie and I originally got the idea that the product of your business is always profit. And without profit, you're not going to have essentially you're running a nonprofit business, which, you know, maybe that's great. But for the most part, you don't want to be running a nonprofit business. So fundamentally, hopefully you are understanding that in markets like this, where everything is changing, you should get back to first principles and challenge all your preconceived notions about what it takes to be successful. In real estate, now, you will most likely find that a lot of decisions you made, you want to carry forward and are working just fine for you and they should continue to work fine for you. But a lot of the other things you should stop doing and not stop doing them temporarily, but stop doing them forever. So, for example, if you've been pouring money into some branding marketing campaign and you've been hoping and praying that one day somehow magically the clouds are going to clear and all of a sudden leads are going to start piling on you and they're not. Well, they're not going to in a market like this. If they did, if those things didn't work in the past market, they definitely won't work in this market as well. Remember, fundamentally, I'm using that word a lot because we're working on fundamentals and first principles today. You need to be leaning back into the concept of being a proactively generator first and then being a passively generator second. When you get really good at proactively generation, when you get really good and we in particular, different types of sellers and those leads don't cost you anything. So if you can move your mind towards the concept that you can actually proactively generate listing leads without having to pay fees or referral fees for those leads, that has to give you a sense of calm, has to give you a sense of, I think, control that if you're just strictly passively generator, you'll never have. Because really the concept, again, that I wish I remembered where you and I originally heard this, Julie, but was don't build your mansion on land you don't own. Right. I can't remember either, but I love it. Well, I mean, we had a rental property that was in Laguna beach that was on a hundred year land lease, which literally we owned the condo, but not the land. Yeah, we owned it outright, but there, we didn't own the land. And we, I think there was like 45 years left on the land lease, but you and I are thinking to ourselves, well, this is not going to be a good long-term asset for us because after the land lease had, when it had less than 30 years, it started, the clock was ticking right around 35 years because what happens when it's less than 30, no lender's going to lend on that. Exactly. So if you, if we were to go to sell that, you, we would find nobody that would be able to get a loan on it because no lender's going to give a loan on it. And so what's going to happen to the value of the property? Because at the end of the land lease, um, technically what happens is the property that's on the land goes back to, uh, the people that own the land. So our paid off condo in 40 years or whatever would have been worth nothing to us because we would no longer technically own it. Now I'm oversimplifying how land lease can work, but that's conceptually something I want you to consider yourselves. If you're building your business on land, you do not own because you're buying your leads or you're essentially hoping and praying that some sort of mystical, magical CRM that's constantly dripping on people's all of a sudden going to start working at a higher level than it worked in the past market, you're going to be wasting a lot of effort and time. And really what you're doing is you're eroding your self confidence and your, um, I think many cases you're hurting yourselves unnecessarily because you've, you're so dug into believing that this was what I started doing five years ago and I'm going to keep doing it. I mean, Julie and I face these types of decisions every day in our businesses. We're involved in many different businesses and it is a hard conversation to have where you're trying to, you know, work through the emotions of stopping something that's, you know, maybe worked in the past and maybe it'll work again when you want it to work so bad. You went short today. If it's maybe it'll be tomorrow. I mean, it's because it's like a, it's like a false sense of security, you know? Well, here's another example. When you and I were selling real estate, it's back when CRMs and such, and you know, mining your CRM and all the rest of it, that was becoming in vogue. And we very quickly built this huge CRM with a thousand plus people. And we were thinking for sure, Oh, we're going to get tons of leads over the next few years from the CRM. We're going to mail them stuff and we're going to have some calling and all the rest of it. And what we quickly figured out, well quickly for us, two or three years is that actually it was very ineffective because what was happening is we were putting those leads in the CRM and we weren't spending a lot of time or any time to pre-qualify them. And so we had this little epiphany, why are we wasting so much time and money hoping and praying that somehow all these leads on our big CRM are going to, you know, start doing business with us. And then we said, well, if we, our new rule was going to be when we contact somebody, when we are, you know, prospecting or even get the lead passively, the first job is going to be as to fully pre-qualify them to find out what their motivation is. And if their motivation was more than, I think in our world, it was more than six months out because we sold in a normal market where houses weren't selling really fast, that we weren't going to chase them. Because what happens is it creates a false sense of security. How many of you have these big CRMs and you're rolling into 2024 and you're believing that because you have a thousand people, approximately 10% of those a thousand people do a real estate deal. How many of those will do a real estate deal for you? Just because the database exists. Exactly. Well, those people are in a million different databases and those people, you know, other agents' databases, not to mention the fact that a lot of them have changed their minds, maybe interest rates or maybe whatever. So here's a real cure to all this. Pick up the phone and call all of them. Use our scripts, pre-qualify them. A lot of the people that showed up in your life as buyers are actually sellers with houses to sell. So you need to call them and use, you know, I know you guys don't like the word script, so let's just call it, you know, conversation, a questionnaire, a conversation outline, right? So call them up, use our conversation outlines to learn what their level of motivation is and find out how many of those people that you have tagged in your CRM as a buyer actually has at least one property to sell. Well, there's a difference between a lead and a contact, right? A lot of you guys call your database all leads. They're not leads unless you have actually used your pre-qualification scripts, established their timeframe, their motivation, what are they looking for, buyer or seller, et cetera. You can still, you know, send them your digital newsletter. You can still communicate, but if you're going to consider somebody a lead, that is a different thing. And I would, I, I'm glad that you brought up people with, I mean, I've even had people come to us and say their database is 3000 people. Can you name, like, if I were to just randomly pick somebody, who is that person? How do you know them? I think smaller, more efficient, more detailed databases are better and more effective. People have to earn the right to be in your CRM. They have to cross a certain level of, you know, have minimum standards for them to be considered as a lead. And you have to know what their timeframe is. You have to know what their, because again, you will allow yourself to, you know, be lulled into complacency and not do the real work of real estate because you're going to convince yourself because everyone else is saying the same thing. Your goal is to have a big database. Your goal is not to have a big database. And I'm going to share with you guys a secret that any of you listening who are, you know, huge producers will know. The best agents that sell the most houses consistently and make the most net profit are the ones with the least amount of leads. Why? For the reasons we've just been harping on. A lead for an agent that's experienced is somebody, you know, it's a very high threshold for you to be considered a lead when you're working with a top producing agent. They're not going to mess around with you if you're just a looky loo or if you're going to sell your house or whatever, you know, pigs fly or interest rates. When rates go to 3% again, I'll do something. Right. They're never going to go to 3% again. Or you can get a really great deal. None of these things. Okay. So follow our prequalifying scripts and you'll find yourself, yes, you'll have fewer leads, but 90% of those will turn into a closed transaction. Well put. Thank you for reminding them of that. Our final point today or our rule is number eight. Don't seek or take advice from unqualified fake coaches, free YouTube advice, Facebook surveys, salespeople to try and sell you stuff. Do not have your best interest at heart, nor do they have the authority or experience to actually advise you. So write these four questions down. I'm going to go through these relatively quick and you should use some, you know, modify this when trying to make decisions about who you're going to hire for really anything. So let's just stick for real estate coach. If you're going to hire a real estate coach, the first question you need to ask that person is has, have you had a real estate license before? I mean, maybe you even ask, you know, when have they had real estate licenses? Julie's got an active real estate license. All of our coaches are licensed. Exactly. We send out referrals every day. But the first question should be, do you actually have an active real estate license? And if you don't, in our humble opinion, that person might have value to you about, you know, maybe they're going to be able to give you helpful advice about something, but sure as hell is not going to be about selling real estate because they've never done it before. Number two, if they've had a real estate license, the next question should be how they sold at least a hundred homes in a year. Now that's an important question because if they've sold at least a hundred homes in a year, that's somebody that's actually been there done that at a higher level than most people have. So go them. But that's not enough for you. You need to be hiring somebody that absolutely positively is the, you know, essentially best of breed real estate coaches. And the third question is, is has that person, that potential coach actually sold a hundred homes per year for at least five years in a row? Now, why does that matter? Because someone could have gotten lucky and sold a hundred houses in a year. I lucky with air quotes, right? Maybe they listed a subdivision, maybe they bought, you know, a representative developer who listed a hundred lots and they all sold the DR Horton or whatever, right? Yeah. Builder wraps or all those types of things. So you want to find out they sold at least a hundred homes per year for at least five years in a row. And the fourth question should be, and if they pass all the, yes, they've had a license. Yes, they sold a hundred houses in a year. Yes, they've sold a hundred houses a year for at least five years in a row. The fourth question should be, and this one, trust me, it's going to take 99.9% of them out is have you, Mr. Potential coach actually provided over 10,000 or really, I think 10,000 is the minimum, but even higher standards. Yeah. A bigger number is even better, but have you done at least 10,000 paid coaching calls, not free coaching calls, not YouTube presentations, not how many followers of subscribers you have. Julie and I have, you know, 50,000 subscribers or whatever on YouTube, but we aren't coaching those guys. Those are just people watching or listening to our videos. You know, we have, you know, 3 million plus downloads every year, but those aren't coaching calls. We've been, we've presented in front of thousands and thousands of people over our career, but those aren't coaching calls. A coaching call is when it's you on the phone with that agent as a coach and you're helping them build their real estate business. And Julie and I are technically performance coaches. We're not life coaches. All that's who we coach. We coach our coaches to be performance coaches. We focus our coaches on actually helping you perform so you can, you know, obviously have a very successful business and make money. But the bottom line is, is if you're considering hiring someone and they've not done at least 10,000 paid coaching calls, you can do better. Well, why is it important that they're paid coaching calls? There's a lot of free coaches out there, right? Well, because here's the real reason why, because they've been market tested. They're not going to have found a, they're not going to have had, you know, potentially thousands of people or at least hundreds of people to pay them, uh, to perform coaching calls at least, you know, especially 10,000 coaching calls unless they're actually legit. No, you probably won't even make it to your 500th call. You won't even make it to your fifth call. You know, the stat, the standard to be a real estate coach doesn't even really exist because virtually everyone calls themselves a real estate coach. And when I'm asking all of you guys to do, because the simple fact is if you follow bad advice, free advice that as you know, essentially not being given to you by somebody who's actually been there and done that at the highest of levels that can ruin your career. And that's another one of the reasons that Julie and I are, we're relatively certain this is true, that the duration, in other words, there's more agents failing faster in real estate now than there ever has been. And I think the real reason why is because there's too many shiny objects, too many things that are distracting agents and too many people out there who are presenting themselves to have a certain level of knowledge and experience that they don't because the marketplace, that's all of you listening, aren't qualifying those people you're seeking advice from. That's on you at this point because you heard Julie and I just give you those four filters. So hopefully all this helps you. Yes. Well, and that's why I appreciate you reminding them of those four filters, because you know, a lot of people come to real estate from something completely unrelated. Why would they know what to ask? Right? It's hard to know how to actually pre-qualify a worthy real estate coach. So thank you for drilling back down on that. We have presented to you guys eight of our first 15 rules for not just newer, newer agents, but those of you who want to hit the hard reset. And technically, just so you're clear, this is not real estate coaching. Julie and I are presenting. This is essentially training. Basically that's all we're really doing is training. We're presenting, not coaching. Coaching is completely different. Okay. So be very clear on that when you're going to hire someone to now scale this out, you're thinking about hiring a doctor, you're thinking about hiring a roofer, you're thinking about hiring, whatever. You need to absolutely positively start asking the tough questions so you don't end up making a bad decision as far as who you hire, right? And it's on you at this point. It's on you. The market has proven who the winners are and you know, when it comes to roofing and you know, mechanics and landscapers and all the rest of it, lean into those people who have the most experience and have proven themselves to provide the best results over time for the people who've chosen to do business with them. That's what we're all about. That's the reason that Julie and I've been in the business for two decades. And by the way, Julie and I have done at least, it's way over a hundred thousand paid coaching calls each at this point. I'm not bragging. You should all feel sorry for us. That's time we'll never get back and you know, talking to that many agents for that many hours is, you know, I don't know, kind of depressing. We're joking. That doesn't, that doesn't even include our coaches either. So guys, open your mind to the possibilities that 2024 will be for all of you provided you're actually willing to do what you don't want to do when you don't want to do at the highest level. We'll talk with you on the show tomorrow. This podcast is a part of the C-suite radio network. For more top business podcasts, visit c-suite radio.com.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | What JPMorgan Analysts Missed About Bitcoin's Rally
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by CME Group and PayPal. So you don't miss an episode, be sure to follow the podcast on your platform of choice and turn on notifications. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now a markets roundup. After the hectic activity at the end of last week as markets reacted to BlackRock's filing of an EtherSpot ETF proposal, the weekend seemed like an oasis of calm. So far today, the market looks mixed. According to Coindesk Indices, at 9 a .m. Eastern Time this morning, Bitcoin was down two thirds of a percent over the past 24 hours, trading at $36 ,873. Ether was up one third, trading at $2 ,059. Elsewhere, Filecoin was up 14%, Cosmos was up 10%, Optimism and the Lido DAO token were up 5%. Solana was down 1 % after what has been an astonishing run. Over the past week, the asset is up over 40%. You may remember that in an early October episode, I pulled out the average performance of Bitcoin for the month of October going back to 2010, which was 27%. I calculated that if Bitcoin achieved that average performance during the month, the price would reach just over $34 ,000. Well, that's pretty much what happened. Do please note, I am not saying I know where the price is going, and the October result was pure coincidence, I don't have a crystal ball. But let's try the same exercise for November just for fun. November historically has been on average an even better month than October, with an average performance going back to 2011 of 44%. If this November meets its average, and it's a big if, that would put the Bitcoin price at just over $49 ,000. It's a pleasant thing to keep in mind. In macro indicators, today I have more news from the University of Michigan Consumer Survey. You may remember a couple of weeks ago, I talked about why this survey was worth watching. It's because of what it says about how consumers are feeling, which could impact future spending. Well, on Friday, we got the details for October, and there are some worrying signals in there. Inflation expectations one year out are now at 4 .4%, much higher than the expected 4%, and higher than September's 4 .2%. This is the highest level since May, which signals that the rate hikes are not doing what they're supposed to do, which is bring down corporate and consumer spending and reset expectations. The fact that consumer inflation expectations are more than double the official target is not nearly as worrying as the fact that they are heading up. And it's especially relevant since it is something Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he keeps an eye on, as inflation expectations can influence behavior. This rise in the University of Michigan's survey result further confirms that rate cuts are not on the table just yet, and probably won't be for a while, at least until this number comes down to close to 2%. The University of Michigan inflation expectations for five years out also came in higher than expected at 3 .2%. This is lower than the 12 -month expectations, which is good, but it does send the signal that the Fed's inflation target won't be reached even in five years.
The Maverick Paradox Podcast
A highlight from Aim to be above your business
"In this short talk episode I speak to Jonathan Jay about his experience in buying and growing businesses over the past 25 years. Jonathan bought a total of 53 businesses over the course of six years with five being before the pandemic and 48 during the pandemic. In this conversation he shares the top five mistakes entrepreneurs make when buying a business and the importance of identifying game -changing acquisitions based on the financial numbers, knowing when to sell business at its peak and the value of not being emotionally attached to the business. I create clear thinking and decisive leaders who can amplify their influence. Contact me to find out how I can help you or your organisation. And today our guest is Jonathan Jay. How you doing Jonathan? I'm very good thank you Judith, thank you for having me on. No thanks for coming on board. Now tell me, what's your favourite thing ever? I was expecting this to be a question about buying a business. My favourite thing ever? Oh my goodness, that's such a broad... my daughter, there you go. Can't get better than that. No you cannot, I bet she's gorgeous when she smiles. Even when she's grumpy she's fairly gorgeous. Brilliant. Jonathan tell us a bit more about you. Well this coming year, 2024, is my 25th anniversary of doing buying, selling, owning, growing and all those sorts of things in business. I've actually been in business longer but my first business was sale in 1999, so coming up to the 25th anniversary and it feels like yesterday in some ways and it feels like a very long time in other ways and I'm going to take it a lot easier from next year onwards, spend a little bit more time doing things other than businessy things. Interesting, so when you buy these businesses do you onboard a management team or do you become the CEO for a while or what do you do? Well it's an all depends answer on the different situations. I'm not particularly interested in operations and I'm not very good at it either. I'm not really the people person that's required to do that sort of thing so I always prefer other people to do that. Okay it's always good to know so many CEOs, founders as well they sort of get trapped into running it when they're not the right person. Well yes that's right because at the beginning you do everything yourself don't you? You are the business in every way possible so it takes quite a mind shift change to say that's not going to be me and there aren't any rules about when it stops being you. Does it stop being you after 12 months or 24 months? There's no rule so it just ends up being you all the time because at the beginning you can't justify anyone else being involved. You can't afford anyone else usually but it is a trap so the work on your business rather than in your business, massive cliche now but when Michael Gerber wrote The E -Myth over 35 years ago I think, it was quite a revolutionary change in people's thinking and he encapsulated it so well with that phrase work on rather than in and now I say to people work above the business so you become the investor rather than the doer or just the owner. And how easy is it to do that? I've never heard of anyone talking about being above the business. How easy is it to get there? Well there are very few things in business that are easy because everything takes discipline, effort, hard work, dedication and all of those things but I think it's important because if you do get dragged into the day -to -day you become the bottleneck in your own business and the growth of your business is going to be throttled by your time and your energy and to have boundless energy in our 20s and 30s past the age of 50 maybe the energy level is not quite what it used to be and we look forward to an early night and a good night's sleep so therefore capturing the energy and enthusiasm of other people allows you to do far more than if it was completely dependent upon you. Okay that makes sense. So in the last three years you've bought 48 businesses so tell me about that journey. Yes it's more than that actually, 53. So yeah I did a buy and build in 2019 which is what's that like that was five years ago actually five years back that I've been thinking about for a year prior to that so it really goes back about six years and I bought five of these businesses before the pandemic, 48 during the pandemic and it was stressful at times. I've got to admit that it wasn't plain sailing, very few people I've ever met have done that. There's only one person I can think of who's done it that aggressively and I ran out of energy. I was helping my daughter with her spelling homework and she was reading through the words for her spelling test that coming that coming week and one of the words was unhappy and she looked at me and she said that's you. Wow. And I said oh okay okay I let it go and the next day I said why did you say that and I said what makes me unhappy and she said work and I thought I've just suddenly become a very poor role model and at one point I was hospitalized. I'm not trying to put people off buying a business, I'm trying to put people off buying 53 businesses in like it was actually two and a half years. The stress started to get to me so no amount of money or no obsession with business is worth your health, your relationships, your family and all of those things and I think that early on in our careers we put everything behind our business and our career and then I think again when you tip into maybe when you tip into your 40s then you tip into your 50s you realize that you've got to get your priorities right because you start saying life is too short way too many times you've only yourself repeating that again and again life is too short life is too short so I think it's getting that work -life balance again yeah that was a kind of a new phrase 20 years ago and now it's work -life balance this that and the other but it's but it is very important. So you risked your health doing what you did but why did you do that? No one had a choice to be fair it kind of crept it kind of crept up at me I wasn't intentionally doing that. I had these stomach pains that wouldn't go away and one particular night you know I just didn't sleep the entire night I was just such agony and I was googling appendicitis and that was actually on the other side so it wasn't appendicitis I thought I couldn't figure out what it what it was I always thought my stomach was kind of in the middle and it's not actually it's to the to the side so I figured it was my stomach so I went to the doctor which I don't you know not something I've ever done on a regular basis and the next day I was having a colonoscopy which is not my favorite medical procedure out of all the medical procedures there are available a colonoscopy is not my most favorite one and they couldn't find anything which was good in some ways but what what was causing these the the stomach pains and it was all stress related so that was when I decided I've got to make a bit of a life lifestyle choice here and however big the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow if I'm not here you know because I'm as long as possible and I can't risk um you know I can't risk my health sort of suffering because of something which is let's face it financially based so um so yeah yeah it's a very common trait though isn't it entrepreneurs pushing themselves far too far um because I suppose you just get used to it and then it makes then it becomes harder to let it go oh I mean I I I have been and to a certain degree even now addicted to my phone I mean it's like it's like I get uncomfortable if it's not in my hand or I can feel it in my pocket which is bizarre I mean I shouldn't be looking at my emails at the weekend should I I mean it's like what's happening at the weekend nothing's happening at the weekend so so why am I even looking um so so it's but but I but I also remember the very very first day back in I think it must have been the mid -2000s when someone showed me how I could actually get emails on my phone and it was like oh my goodness I don't have to sit at my desktop to get my I can actually get them on my phone and you think that um you know if you if you again if you go back 20 25 years where we didn't have Facebook and we didn't have social media we didn't have um phones of any description but we still managed okay actually this is going back 30 years we still managed okay and we managed with a fax machine and uh you never hear anyone saying they make more money now than they did back then because they've got phones and technology yeah it it it is meant to improve communication but I don't remember anyone ever saying communication was was bad it was just you worked with what you've got and you didn't expect an instant yeah people these days you send them a whatsapp message and you don't reply instantly it's like a it's it's it's considered to be rude um where you know no one ever got upset when you faxed them and you didn't fax back immediately had it changed for the better not necessarily yeah why did you buy all those businesses in such a short period of time and it was in opportunity um that uh it was an opportunity to grow a grow a a pretty sizable group the fourth largest in the sector um within a short space of time and the pandemic was good in some ways business -wise bad in other ways um and one of the ways it was good it was because there were we just went for it um what it was it was just opportunistic that's all what type of businesses are they are these were all uh child care oh wow okay that made do you do you still have those no well my my business partner took over when I I I decided like I said the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow was not was not as enticing as I thought it was going to be so she took over um uh and and she was the child care expert I I was just the guy with the idea so my contribution was I had the idea and I knew how to do the deals and get the deals done um apart from having a child I I don't really know anything about uh how to run a child care business it's all highly regulated and you know I'm not qualified to do that anyway okay that makes sense so how did you know which of those businesses were good businesses to buy next to other businesses that you didn't buy uh because I looked at 500 so I looked at 500 first and it was kind of like a one in ten um of the of the 500 uh despite that you know some of them were better than others because they're not all created equally um and and some had some inherent cultural issues uh some had reputational some issues had financial issues uh you never get a perfect business right every business something that isn't appealing to someone else um maybe as the owner you live with it but to a new owner they wouldn't think it was um a good thing uh so so yeah so so the the bottom line was having choice of looking at looking at 500 in quick succession so if somebody was sitting there and they were thinking I need to I want to buy a business yeah is there any key things other than the fact that obviously you know the financials if you take the financials out is there any key things that people should be looking at well it is actually the financials the largest part because you want a business that's that's making good money and if you're going to buy a business why would you buy a business making 50 000 a year when you can buy a business making 500 000 a year with the same level of effort um as actually is easier to buy the larger business and the smaller business the larger business is going to be a better business than the smaller business um so they're uh yeah so the financials actually are are absolutely critical uh it's got to have enough staff enough people because you always get some when you buy a business you always get some people you want something that if you've if you've got a business with five members of staff and two leave you've got yourself a big problem uh if you've got a business with 50 members of staff and five leave or six leave it you know you don't notice yeah sometimes they were surplus to requirements anyway uh you've got to have a business that's big enough to be able to afford some good people to run it because you don't want that if uh it if it if it's you and you just bought yourself a job uh and even though it might be a well -paid job yeah we've kind of created that bottleneck that we were talking about earlier yeah and how did what sort of weight do you put on things like the culture of the organization well the that's the hardest part so you know if you buy two businesses one has a nine to five you know you walk in at one minute to nine you leave at one minute to five and then you've got the other which is work hard play hard and you know we're on call we're available anytime we'll do what's required to grow this business you try and put those two groups of people together and they won't mix so that cultural match is is really difficult and getting the staff on side is really important and that you know we did it really well and we did really badly yeah so and everything in between and sometimes it's practice slightly outside of your control as well so um you know you you might have a seller who who is a reluctant seller and some for some reason doesn't want the buyer to be successful and definitely doesn't want the buyer to be more successful than they were doesn't want to show doesn't want to be shown up so they they spike it a little bit with the staff and it's amazing how many people sell a business and then keep in touch with the staff and want to know everything that's going on they can't let go oh i suppose after 20 years of ownership i get that i understand that but uh that that makes things a little bit tricky so the the people aspects are typically the hardest okay thank you that's really that's really a good point so what are you doing now then um i go on holiday a lot and i take my daughter to school i pick her up from school um i watch uh dancing uh uh shows uh gymnastics competitions the other night last night and uh and i i do that i i i fill my day um helping other people buy businesses and benefiting from my experience over the last 25 years so uh these are either business owners already who want to expand by buying another business or they're entrepreneurially minded people quite a few property investors recently are not getting a very good return on property um and uh and see an opportunity in business so it's a it's a combination of all of uh all those different types of people and i i have sort of groups of business owners and entrepreneurs who come together and i guide them through the business buying process so they don't make all the mistakes and there's a lot of mistakes you can make and i've made all of them so i can help people avoid them that sounds really good so is there a top five mistakes that entrepreneurs make when they're trying to buy a business yeah um this is in no particular order because it's off the top of my head but uh definitely uh letting uh emotion rule the decision so ahead so it you turn into a motivated buyer you want to buy it and therefore you've got to make the deal work even though the deal shouldn't work it actually would help you if the deal didn't work um buying a business that's too small so you end up um getting involved because you have to and the business can't afford anyone to replace the exited owner um another mistake is using your own money you should never use your own money when buying a business why would you do that um you know we can we can finance the the acquisition without you having to reach into your own pocket and that's why people can buy multi -million pound businesses without being a multi -millionaire uh you don't need the money to to do that you just need the knowledge and the three mistakes that people make uh mistake number four um is that uh let's see um they uh get the numbers wrong so they don't do sufficient due diligence to understand exactly how much profit the business makes uh what the business will continue to make under the new ownership you know they rush the deal they rush this part of it because it's not very exciting due diligence um it's a little bit like waiting for the house survey to come back when you've already want to buy the house and even if there's a hole in the roof and you're gonna buy that house so people ignore the due diligence or skimp on it that's four thing four mistakes that people make i've done a video i've done actually done a video series of 12 mistakes that people make uh and uh so let me think of one of those for number five for you um so i i think going into an acquisition without enough knowledge of what to do so feeling as though you can make it up as you go along you can pick up bits of information of the internet i mean goodness me if you spend enough time on the internet you'll you'll be so confused because people say different things what you need is a process you need a system to follow you need to say like this is the first thing i do this is the second thing to the third thing and every time i see someone follow the system they get the result if they don't follow the system they don't get the result and it becomes frustrating or it becomes expensive or they end up just not doing it so i think it's really important to follow that process follow that system so there you go there's five mistakes that people make they're really good ones actually and they're things that you don't automatically think of and that i like the idea about not being a motivated buyer because you make mistakes because you just need and like you say you just need to buy it when it's been going on for ages so it's just like i've put i've already invested x amount of time so now it's i might as well just do well it um yes or i've spent x amount of money and yeah i feel as though i i have an obligation to follow through uh which is just not some not a good idea uh at all you you are looking for a motivated seller you're looking for somebody who wants to sell because if they don't want to sell why you know what you're going to do you're going to try and persuade them to sell to you does that sound like it's ever going to be a good deal so you want someone who wants to sell and you'll find that the more they want to sell the better the deal for you so out of all though millions of businesses out there i think you're probably better off finding someone who really is motivated to sell rather than someone who doesn't want to yeah and i suppose the other thing to think about is if you've got another business or other businesses is how does this one adds to the portfolio or does it distract from the portfolio i guess another one isn't it exactly and and it becomes a distraction it becomes a bad distraction if it's small and it sucks up time but doesn't give you anything back uh it's a good distraction um if it's a game changer acquisition and that and that's what uh um that's always what we're that that is a game changer or just something that you want to do how do they how can they tell the difference uh it's usually down to the numbers right okay to give an example a father and son duo who just bought their first business recently with my help um eight million of revenue 1 .1 million of pre -tax profit that's a game changer deal where you know you buy a business 20 that makes 000 pounds a year well that's never going to set the world alight right it's just like why put the effort in you might as well go and buy the bigger the bigger business okay and do you have any thoughts about knowing when to sell when someone should be thinking about it's time to sell yeah when things are going well but no one wants to sell when things are going well because i say well why would i sell things are going well now that's when you get the um most value and things don't go well forever no business goes up and up and up and up and up and up and up every business you know it goes up and down it's like a roller coaster so you need to know when you're going getting up to the top of the the peak and when you're going up to the top of the peak that's when you sell when you reach the top the only way is down and that's when you get the worst value and that's when you become seriously motivated to sell you should be motivated to sell because the business is doing well not motivated to sell because the business is doing badly. That makes a lot of sense and I guess you need to not be emotionally attached to the business because that's when it's difficult to sell. You get the best value if you're not emotionally attached. If you are emotionally attached your value goes down every single time. This is really useful. Thank you so much for that. Before we finish is there anything Jonathan you want to add or leave with the audience? Can I give a plug for my YouTube channel? Yeah go ahead and do it. If you type my name Jonathan J J A Y into YouTube I've got over 200 videos on buying a business and all interviews with my clients who've done it, me doing presentations to groups of people, all different types of videos and there's some free training videos there as well. If anyone's interested in doing this check out the Jonathan J YouTube channel. Brilliant and I think that will help as you said it's always good to have a bit of a template a bit of a process and an idea of what to expect rather than getting super excited and go I've got some money I can do something. Yeah and keep your money in your pocket don't use your own money when buying the business. Brilliant thank you so much for coming on the show. My pleasure thank you Judith. You're welcome and thank you out there for tuning into the Maverick Paradox podcast. I'm Judith Germain your host and thank you very much for listening to us today. The Maverick Paradox. Judith Germain is an author, speaker, consultant, mentor and trainer and the leading authority on maverick leadership. She is the founder of the Maverick Paradox which supports organizations to enhance their leadership capabilities and to help business owners develop and grow their businesses. Judith enables individuals, business owners and organizations to improve their impact and influence. She is also HR Zones leadership columnist and her expert opinion has appeared in national, international and trade press.
Cloud Security Podcast by Google
A highlight from EP148 Decoding SaaS Security: Demystifying Breaches, Vulnerabilities, and Vendor Responsibilities
"Welcome to the Cloud Security Podcast by Google. Thanks for joining us today. Your hosts here are myself, Timothy Peacock, the Senior Product Manager for Threat Detection here at Google Cloud, and Anton Chuvakin, a reformed analyst and senior staff in Google Cloud's Office of the CISO. You can find and subscribe to this podcast wherever you get your podcast, as well as at our website, cloud .google .com slash podcasts. If you enjoy our content and want it delivered to you piping hot every Monday, please do hit that subscribe button. You can follow the show, argue with us on the rest of the Cloud Security Podcast listeners on our LinkedIn page. Today is a special episode because it was originally live streamed. If you'd like to follow our live streams in the future, do follow the page. You can get the video content on our YouTube channel as well. Anton, we are talking about. Caspi 2023? in No, we are really not. We're not, we're not. What are we talking about? We are not. We are talking about securing SaaS. That sounds like Caspi. And I was deluded by claiming that securing SaaS is really just Caspi. And suddenly I think you are trying to troll me a little bit and flip the positions and pretend that you believe that securing SaaS is all about Caspi. You would never do that. Me? Troll you? Never. I would never do that. No, no, no. Okay. No, no, no. But it is a securing SaaS episode. And it is. And I think that there's a whole universe of things. And the strange part, there would be like a one particular surreal bit today. Most people who use software service assume that securing SaaS is about configuring security. Yes. And at the same time, most people correctly point out that the chance of a SaaS vendor being breached in some particularly nasty manner is really not high for the top tier vendors and that it can be handled through paper security contracts, questionnaires. And is that the truth? Is this not a year where we've seen counter examples of that though? I think that's the year where we've seen counter examples to put it mildly. Yes. Yes. Yes. Okay. Well, maybe with that teaser listeners, let's turn things over to today's guest. All right, listeners. Welcome to another live stream of the Cloud Security Podcast by Google. Thank you for joining us today. Our guest today, Adrian Sanabria, Director of Valence Threat Labs. Adrian, thank you so much for joining us today. Delighted to have you here. You are, of course, somebody who has also cool Legos in their background. So already you're doing great on the show. I want to start us off by centering us on SaaS. Spent a lot of time on the Cloud Security Podcast talking about cloud security for Azure and AWS and some other smaller cloud. I think that's called GCP, but there's this whole other world of cloud services that is SaaS and where users access an app like Salesforce or Workspace or O365, depending on what kind of credential they've stolen that day. So how do we think about securing SaaS as opposed to securing, say, the three infrastructure clouds? Well, it's a blurry line, right? Like how do you access those infrastructure clouds? That's also SaaS. It is, yeah. If you're using console .aws .com or whatever the GCP equivalent is or Azure equivalent. So, yeah, it's really interesting because it is kind of a blurry line. And we do find ourselves somewhat overlapping with infrastructure protection and stuff like that. Okta was a big supported platform. Also, the SaaS interfaces of security tools like CrowdStrike. We support SentinelOne and CrowdStrike as SaaS consoles that we secure because that's how everything works today is through a web browser, through an interface in a web browser, through some kind of SaaS interface. But wasn't it not like that in the past? Because you're a former analyst as well, right? And I do recall my former analyst years when there was this whole secure SaaS, you know, buy CASB, do the classic SaaS stuff. And there was on the left people who lived and shifted VMs and treated IaaS as kind of a colo, sadly. You know, we may rant about it, but it happened. But it sounds like the two worlds were further apart in the past. Yeah. Am I hallucinating it? No. Or is there something to that? No. And I think where it changed is behind the scenes quite a bit. A lot of it's we went from these monolithic web apps to API first dumb interfaces, which maybe have a little bit of JavaScript now, but there's a lot less heavy lifting by the JavaScript and a lot more done behind the scenes through the API. It used to be you'd run a search somewhere and it would pull the entire dataset, like the actual query in your browser tab and just use a ton of memory to do that. Now that that happens behind the scenes so that it's a much lighter lift, much quicker on the front end. Also, all these applications integrate now. Like before the pandemic, Zoom was just a dumb meetings app. Now it's this whole platform overnight, almost it seemed it had hundreds and hundreds of integrations. And a lot of these integrations work like if you had some kind of an inline tool like a SASE or a CASB or something like that, that's depending on looking at inline traffic, you're not going to see this because it's SaaS vendor to SaaS vendor where these actions are taking place, whether they be scheduled. But is it a customer problem? If it's a SaaS vendor to SaaS vendor, sometimes customers don't even see that stuff going on. So that sounds tricky. It is. I mean, shared responsibility, just like the public clouds. Right. And sometimes it's not clear where that line is, where that shared responsibility begins and ends. You know, like, for example, turning on logs, like I remember running an investigation years and years ago, they were using Office 365 and it was a case where somebody had gotten access to their email and we got in, we started investigating and it was clear they were on the inside because they were able to send convincing looking emails as other employees trying to change the bank accounts for large seven digit commercial real estate payments. And none of the logs were on by default. Like, we had no way of knowing when they got into the system, how long they had been in there, the extent of what they had access to. So during the investigation, we were the first one to turn on email logging. But that's sort of like so, okay, should I say so 90s? Well, none of this stuff existed in the 90s. So it's almost like it's just so sad 90s mistakes. Our job is just Groundhog Day, Anton. It's just Groundhog Day every day. But it's a Groundhog as a service. Yeah. Okay, fine. It's just supposed to be more funny than it helped. The Groundhog has moved. We still see 90s problems so often. Like, how often do we see some new fancy DevSecOps tool where there's a port exposed or default credentials or something like that? Like, we see these same issues popping up again and again because a lot of the people engineering this stuff are a new generation that didn't live through those times. And maybe we elder security folk didn't do a good job of passing down our lessons learned. Oh, that's for sure we didn't. I think you're supposed to invite Adrian because he's such a positive person and he would like shine the beautiful blue light. And now I'm more depressed than normal. So probably we should switch topics. How about incidents in the cloud? Oh, wait. Yeah, that's different, too. So what do we know from the actual breakage? I saw somebody post on LinkedIn the other day. Do we need CVEs for like cloud and SaaS? And didn't make a whole lot of sense to me because to me, a CVE is something you have to fix in your environment, like it's fixed once by the vendor, fixed many by the customer, whereas SaaS and cloud infrastructure is the opposite. The stuff we constantly see, like now it's these research teams working for vendors, for CSPM, SSPM vendors, they're out trying to find vulnerabilities and issues in these services. But once the vendor fixes it, it's fixed for all customers all at once. Right. So it doesn't make sense to assign that a CVE, right? I think that might be a limited view on what a CVE is for. No, no, I'm with Adrian. No, no, no. Hear me out. Hear me out. Wait. Okay, go. Okay. So sure, a CVE is definitely a statement that, hey, I have to go install some patches, but it's also a signal that something was vulnerable and I was at risk for a period of time from disclosure to patch. A CVE in the cloud or a CVE in a SaaS could reasonably serve the purpose of I need to investigate whether that was used against me while it was vulnerable and unpatched. And without a mechanism like CVE, how do I as a user know that my cloud provider or my SaaS provider might have lost my shit? I'm not arguing there shouldn't be a mechanism. There does need to be a mechanism, but I think it's confusing to lump it in with CVEs. I think it needs to be a separate database, a separate acronym. Yeah. And the most evident client facing, the client face inside is probably a misconfiguration. So it also wanted the CVE type. It is the defunct CCE or whatever they tried back in the day. In theory should have helped, but ultimately misconfigured SaaS would get you. And that's something you need to fix. Yeah. And just like with traditional vulnerabilities, we do need to understand the type. Like a lot of these issues we see in the cloud, you know, it's unclear if the researchers were the first ones to find it. And some of them are cross -tenant vulnerabilities. Like I remember one where if you knew the disk ID of a disk image in Microsoft in Azure, you could mount it. There were no access controllers. That's the early days. That's very early days. That's like 2013, maybe 14, right? No, it was like two years ago. Yeah. What year is this? It's 2023. Last time I checked. Thank you. Holy cow. We talked about it on Enterprise Security Weekly, and I've only been running that podcast for two years. So it was in the last two years. That's wild. Wild. Yeah, it was wild. Wow. Yeah. And you can imagine people taking screenshots that would show that ID or uploading things to GitHub where they would still have the, like, I wouldn't think to treat that image ID as a secret, right? Of course not. Why would you? You would think there's access control on it. Yeah. So again, shared responsibility, a very blurry line here with SaaS and cloud. And so we rely on a lot of researchers to say, hey, did they, did they build it? Like, surely not, you know, but you got to go and test it. This is why I think CVEs and cloud are important. How else would you as a, and again, it could be some other mechanism. Sure. Right. But I think structured vulnerability disclosure is important because if I'm a buyer and I want to decide, oh, man, is that system trustworthy? Does that system have these kinds of things? How else am I going to figure that out? Other than a database of the history of stuff we've discovered about it, maybe listening to podcasts. Yeah. And there are some now. There is a cloud vulnerability database. I forget what it's called. Yeah, it's launched by one of the cloud security, what we call a third party vendor, I think. Yes. There are actually two or three attempts at the cloud vulnerability database as a service protocol. We'll add them to resources. Yeah, that's great. OK, so I want to shift gears a little bit away from the again. We got back to Azure for a little bit. Tell me about the recent O365 SaaS breach. What's that? Is that a breach? Is that a cloud breach? Is that something else? Where does that land? Well, first of all, they rebranded. You got to keep up with the rebranding. If I try to keep up with Microsoft rebranding, I will. There's no more Office. What is it? Microsoft 365, M365. M365? And everything's defender, except for the things that are not defender. OK, fine, whatever. The email service in the cloud that's not workspace, that got breached. Was that a cloud breach? So there were several in the last couple of months. Are we talking about the AI data leak one or are we talking about the one where a bunch of government agencies broke into their emails? That one? Yeah, the storm. The 26 agencies that got popped because of bad token health and bad access key signing security. Yeah. So that was an interesting one because we don't know how it happened. We know that a Microsoft engineer lost access to this key at some point, but they're either not sure or they're not telling how that engineer got compromised. If you look at the wording, they don't even necessarily connect the engineer getting compromised to the rest of the attack. So it could be a red herring. I'm not sure. Maybe I'm reading into it too much, but there's going to be a government investigation into that. So there's a subsidiary of CISA that just does these investigations. And I predict in about 12 months, we'll have a much more detailed report telling us what happened there. But certainly access tokens played a role. Wait, is this one of the first real big NTSB cyber investigations we're going to see? No, I think the first one. What was the first one? Log4j. Yeah, Log4j was the first one. Yeah. So but wait a second. I'm getting this surreal vibe from all of that. So back when I was an analyst, I'm not going to joke about back when I was younger because it wasn't that far into the past. When dinosaurs roamed the earth and Anton was an analyst. Yeah. When the gas cloud, I kind of think gas cloud first, not before dinosaurs. Many people sort of assume that the infrastructure and a bunch of other stuff is taken care of by a SAS security vendor. And then the other Gartner wisdom, about 99 percent of cloud breaches being customer fault applies. So it's almost like my mind wants to naturally go back to the world where SAS providers, at least the top tier ones, are pretty secure, pretty well done. But customers kind of screw up configurations and then they cause issues. But we are seemingly in the world where SAS providers screw up and not the client. So like bring me back to the familiar, because now I'm getting even more nervous and I want to like unplug my computer from an Internet or something. The SAS vendors, you know, it doesn't grow your SAS revenue to build in the security or more security than your competitor. You want to reduce friction. You want to increase adoption. You want to increase spend. And none of that is done by making people jump through extra hoops when they authenticate, making them do step up authentication, making them spend a bunch of time checking their configuration, making sure the configuration is correct. So there is some pressure for the SAS vendor to pick a configuration, get it right. And typically they don't. That's not the top priority. So the customer bears the brunt of that. So a great example of that is how we handle external data sharing today. So by default, overwhelmingly, at least from my research, the number one use case for data sharing is I'm about to jump into a meeting. I've got a file I need to share with somebody. We're going to discuss this file during the meeting. We shared a file to prep for this podcast, right? Like the very common use case. But what's the expiration on that? Why isn't there an expiration on that data sharing? In many cases, that data share no longer needs to exist the moment that meeting ends, right? Sometimes it's a little bit longer. Maybe you're working with a contractor, maybe it's three months out, but there's no lifecycle. There's no full governance on that data share. And the same thing with integrations, the same thing with a lot of identities in SAS, very optimized for getting you in the application, creating the integration, creating the data share, but little to no focus on cleaning it up afterwards. So you end up with this big mess. And we find on average, here's a stat we got from our customers. Ninety one percent of data shares have not been touched in 90 days and can just be closed. This certainly rhymes with kind of the material security thesis of let's lock down all your old email and make you put in a different password to get access to it. So I totally buy that this is how information works in our presence. But what we're finding is like CISOs will say, well, nobody's touched it in 90 days. What's the worst case? They have to reshare a file like just remove all that, just clean it all up, just sweep it all away. Attack surface gone. Well, I think Googlers who are coping with our changes in access control might take issue with what's the worst that happens. They have to wait for a reshare. But I can see how a lot of reasonable people would come to that conclusion. Yes. And it also sort of reminds us, by the way, it also this whole ghost of IAM barges into our conversation and roars. Sorry, I'm mixing ghosts and dinosaurs, but the point is that ultimately these are permission problems and I'd watch that movie. Yeah, it's not about bad SaaS vendor or bad customer. It's about over permissioning and not having the right IAM culture or access management culture, whatnot. So it's back to almost every cloud problem has an IAM problem behind it somewhere. Right. And a lot of it is just simply UX. Yeah. Huh. When I go to share a file, where's the option to share it for a day? Why isn't share it for 24 hours the default option? Why don't I have an option to share it for seven days, share it for a month? That's a profound thought. Expire after my calendar with this share, tie this share to a calendar event and expire an hour after it. Did we just give somebody a cool startup idea to build that and get rich? That's a feature, not a company. Right. That's what analysts say. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Fair point. So privacy engineering is already focused on this when just managing the performance of your mobile devices, your iPad will unload and shove over to iCloud your mobile app data to save space if you run out of space, rather than just saying you can't install this new app because you're out of space. Or if you haven't used an app for four weeks, five weeks or something like that, your Android might say, hey, it doesn't look like you're using these apps. Would you like to clean them up? So this idea of cleaning up unused stuff isn't even so much for security implications or privacy implications. It's just for performance on mobile devices. And I think that maps over pretty well to enterprise SaaS and cloud as well. Like Google. Google will do that. The first time I used GCP to run a workload, it told me you over provision this. You're not using nearly as many resources. You saw I am recommend you could save some money by choosing a smaller instance. I was like, that's the only cloud that's ever told me, hey, you're spending too much. We're not paying him to say this, right? Tim, just to confirm this is very organic. Very organic. But he's also not paying us to mention the balance, right? Like it's all kind of very fair. Yeah. Balance is up. Or he didn't pay us to mention his podcast either. Oh, that's right. Yes, exactly. It's all kosher here. I want to shift back onto the SaaS world and maybe ask if I'm a director and I'm bringing out a new SaaS vendor, what are the things I'm least likely to understand about securing it when I first start using it? And what should I do different? I think number one is understanding how the business is planning to use it. But I think there's an assumption in what you just said there that might not even be true. Maybe it's already been in use for three months when the IT team finds out that it exists or three years or something like that, right? Like sometimes SaaS is owned completely outside of IT and security IT are unaware of it. Who are the Salesforce admins? In many cases, they don't even work for the company. You hire like a third party group of Salesforce experts to set up your Salesforce and run it for you. First of all, you need to understand how the business is going to use it to understand how it needs to be secured. Because Salesforce, just rolling with that example, I think there's well over 200 different configuration options. And then you could extrapolate that to more if you take in all the options within options. So the least understood aspect here is that ultimately, when you say, hey, let's secure SaaS because you're onboarded it, you may then realize it was onboarded three years ago. It shouldn't be not understood in 2023, because again, I vaguely recall this whole people whipping up a credit card and buying SaaS going back maybe 10 years ago, maybe more. So it's a little strange how we are misunderstanding it for 10 years. It's more that it's been deferred, I think, by most security teams than that it's not well understood. Well, and it's not well understood because it's been deferred for so long. You'll have teams say, well, let's figure out patching first before we moved on. I was talking to an old friend of mine and he was telling me the other day he had to teach the Linux admins how to turn on patching in Red Hat. There was no repo enabled for updating software. What century is that? Yeah, I know. I shouldn't even say what year is this? Like, what century is that? Yeah, Red Hat Enterprise and no enabled repos, no way to apt update or apt upgrade anything. So that's where we're living where SaaS seems like, okay, like that's something I'll tackle in the future. But the problem is, most of our business stuff has moved there already. Workloads moved in two directions. The custom in -house stuff moved to cloud and then everything else moved to SaaS. And you have to have a really good justification to not use SaaS. Like, let's stand up this internal HR platform or are we going to use Workday or Bamboo HR, something like that. You're going to go the SaaS route. So if you're structured to top three misunderstood aspects of SaaS security, I guess maybe I'm going to reserve the number three for CASB just does it. So what are the other two? One of them is that they're all unique. There's no standards for SaaS configuration. Like in one SaaS, maybe all the security options you want are there. In another one, half of them are there. And in another one, you have to pay extra for the security features. Yes, exactly. You just had to make it even more depressing, Tim. Sorry. Yeah, my bad. So one of them is just the uniqueness of each one. Each one is a snowflake, pardon the pun, and you have to learn each one from scratch. On some platforms, for example, MFA is the one step process. You just enable MFA for an identity. And in another, you have to both enable and enforce it. And if you forget that second step, then you haven't actually done MFA correctly. What? Yeah, it's also Microsoft. Sure. I can see that. Maybe MFA is something you enable and then users have to configure it if they want it, or you can enforce it. I get it. I understand some poor PM who couldn't migrate all his users or her users or their users. That sounds awful. And it leaves us with this kind of situation. And there's different layers of enforcement. When I log into a lot of services, I get an option that says, don't make me MFA again for 30 days, or maybe ever. Once I do it once on this device, just give me an OAuth key that lasts indefinitely. And that's where we see cybercrime taking advantage of that. And there's a special kind of malware called info stealers that do nothing but sweep up all your SAS OAuth keys and sell them on a black market or use them to get into a company and deploy ransomware. So wait a second. I feel like we haven't talked about CASB enough. And the reason why we did an episode on podcast on SAS security and which we'll link in the resources. But the thing is that I was very skeptical. And again, maybe it's my old garden of brain or something. I was like, yeah, why are we talking about this new platform for securing SAS? CASB does it. And then, of course, now we have SSPM. So we have the CASB bucket. We have SSPM bucket. SAS security posture management. People, our audience have been beating on us a little bit for not explaining all the acronyms. CASB, I'm not going to explain. Acronym is kind of too embarrassing. Cloud access security broker. Tim Wood. Fine. That counts. But I'm not sure that explains it. It's meant to be software that helps you use cloud stuff securely. But it's the only security acronym with a B. So that's already kind of a little disturbing. Yes. Broker is a weird word to have in an acronym. Yeah. I mean, I think broker ended up in there because a broker helps you use other stuff. Right? It kind of makes sense. Anyway, go on, Anton. Sorry. So the question is, Adrian kind of quietly implying that maybe there's another category of SAS security tech that we need to have. So how does it all fit with securing SAS? Do you have CASB, SSPM, or other? Early on, long before I joined Valence, I referred to the new SAS security companies as CASB v2. And I largely saw CASB as a failure in what it tried to do. It pivoted a lot during its very quick and hot burn that it went through before they all exited. Isn't this too harsh? This is harsh. CASB as a failure is too harsh. I'm sorry. I'm not offended, but I'm like surprised. So I don't think we've yet seen us live alongside of CASB, but we do replace them. And we see this all the time in security. We see a category that's largely defined by one or two vendors, and then all the other vendors follow that model. And it's the wrong model. It's not a model that has market fit, that lands with customers. And then we see the next generation come in and try a different approach. You know, NT malware didn't take the wrong approach initially, but the adversaries switched. And if you didn't pivot quickly enough to the next gen approaches, when we got CrowdStrike and Silence and all that, you were kind of dead in the water. And we saw a lot of companies directly impacted by not moving quickly enough. And so CASB, I think they did start to pivot towards more API models than forward and reverse proxy. They were very excited. And I was very excited about the idea that I can adopt SAS, but not this feature. And I can add this feature, but the idea that they're taking away JavaScript and injecting JavaScript on the fly, I can do step up authentication where it doesn't exist. The SAS vendor doesn't give me that. Like I want to change somebody's payroll or change where it direct deposits. Maybe I want my CASB to require step up authentication for that. And you could do that with a CASB. Or I want to use Yammer, but I want them to use Slack for chat or Teams for chat. I don't want them to use the built in chat within Yammer. So you take away the chat box using an inline CASB. And just turns out, even if they said they wanted that, nobody took the time to set it up. So most of the customers I talked to, the use cases they would get around to that they would have time for were much more basic, much more simple. And I think the other thing that kind of killed it is the CASBs were very focused on shadow IT and discovering as much as possible, which became very overwhelming. We just talked about how each of these SAS needed though, right? Well, but it created a problem. We just talked about how every SAS is a unique snowflake and you have to study and understand each one to be able to configure it correctly. So now I just told you, you have a thousand. I discovered your entire long tail of SAS use within your organization. Where do you start? Whereas now you look at this current gen of SAS security companies like ours, it's very much more focused on Microsoft 365, your Google workspace. There's a lot of work to do there already. And it's much more of a hygiene governance focus than discover all your shadow IT and lock it down. So much more business enablement, much more like, hey, we're going to let the business continue using the SAS, but we're going to give you the visibility you need to go in there and without disturbing them, without killing productivity, going in there and fixing things up as you go, rather than come in as blockers. Well, Adrian, this has been a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We are unfortunately at the time where I have to ask our closing questions. One, do you have a tip to help people improve their SAS security? And two, do you have some recommended reading for our listeners? Yeah, so the tip, I would say integrate identities as much as you can. Don't let people use the native stuff. Then you don't have to worry about a lot of the built in SAS settings like MFA and stuff like that. If you push everybody to Okta or push everybody to Google or Microsoft, you can rely on the configuration you've already done there and get the benefit of scale from that. So take advantage of single sign on and integrations like that, that take some of that work off your hands. What was the second question? Recommended reading. Well, so recommended reading, we do have a report that goes through a lot of the stuff that we're talking about. It's got examples of breaches. So if you look for the 2023 Valence State of SAS Security report, it has examples of breaches to go along with. A lot of the stuff that we've talked about goes through the different use cases that we see in SAS security. We kind of break it down into the different components, misconfigurations. We talked about identities. We talked about external data sharing and also integrations, those SAS to SAS integrations that you wouldn't see in line and then has all the data that we pulled. I got to play with the data that we actually got from our customers. And I mentioned that 91 % stat. There's a whole bunch of interesting stats in there that are in that report. And then we give recommendations and predictions. And one of my predictions was that AILM will lead to an explosion of new SAS. So there'll be more than ever to deal with. Got it. Adrian, thank you so much for joining us today. Listeners, thank you for joining us on the live stream. I see lots of fun comments. I want to thank everybody for the engagement. And Adrian, your fellow podcaster in the security space, Rafal Los, is calling you out on some of your comments about exits and the CASB space. Well, he has a podcast too. So you know what to do, Raf. Raf knows what to do. We'll all get together and argue about CASB. It'll be great. God, I was going to say that'll be a great time. I don't know about that. All right. Thanks, folks. Depends on your perspective. Yeah, sure does. With that, thank you all for joining us today. Well, thank you very much. I appreciate it. And now we are at time. Thank you very much for listening and, of course, for subscribing. You can find this podcast at Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts. Also, you can find us at our website, cloud .withgoogle .com slash cloud security slash podcast. Please subscribe so that you don't miss episodes. You can follow us on Twitter, twitter .com slash cloudsecpodcast. Your hosts are also on Twitter at Anton underscore Chiwaki and underscore Tim Pico. Tweet at us, email us, argue with us. And if you like or hate what we hear, we can invite you to the next episode. See you on the next Cloud Security Podcast episode. Bye.
Stuff You Should Know
A highlight from Selects: Who were the Buffalo Soldiers?
"Get ready to dive into the future with Technically Speaking, an Intel podcast, the groundbreaking podcast from iHeartMedia's Ruby Studios in partnership with Intel. Each episode unveils the incredible ways AI technology is transforming our world for the better. Join host Graham Klass as he speaks with the experts behind the technological advancements that are powering a brighter and more accessible future for everyone. Listen to Technically Speaking, an Intel podcast, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Following in your parents' footsteps is never easy, especially when mom or dad happen to be superstar athletes. What kind of lessons do Hall of Famers like, oh I don't know, NBA legend Tim Hardaway and NFL icon Kurt Warner impart on their kids as they chase professional sports stardom? How do they teach them the importance of prioritizing health and how to overcome adversity? Well, you can join Heart of the Game as they explore these questions and more with some of the greatest families in sports. Listen to Heart of the Game on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody. Happy Saturday. It's Chuck here with a Saturday select - selection? Yeah, that works. This week I'm going to go with Who Were the Buffalo Soldiers? This is from January 2020 and I love my history episodes that we do and this is one that I really enjoy doing because we dug in, didn't know anything about this topic, and those are always my favorite when I go in kind of blind and learn a lot. So check it out. Who Were the Buffalo Soldiers? Welcome to Stuff You Should Know, a production of iHeartRadio. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm Josh Clark. There's Charles W. Action Jackson Bryant, right? Sure. And then there's Jerry over there, The Flash. That makes this Stuff You Should Know. That's right. If there's one thing people say to me is how much I'm like Carl Weathers and how speedy Jerry is. Why do I want to say that Carl Weathers had one arm in Action Jackson? I don't think that was the case. Has he ever had one arm in any of his, oh, I think his arm gets pulled off in Predator. I'm conflating the two. That sounds about right. I saw Predator, but just once like, you know, when it came out. I saw it within the last 12 months. I think it's even better now as a grown up. Oh yeah? Yeah. Okay. I can really feel the tension like you're in the jungle there with everybody. It's amazing. Have you been singing the Buffalo Soldier song like constantly in your head? Despite my best efforts, I can't stop. Well, I looked up the lyrics because I was just, you know, I know some of them, but I wanted to kind of see where exactly he was probably talking about the soldiers. And there were some kind of on the nose references. Sure. You mentioned San Juan. You mentioned San Juan. What else? You know, fighting for America, fighting on arrival, fighting for survival. Sure. I always got it wrong though. I thought he said dreadlock rock star. No. No, he says dreadlock Rasta. I know. I learned that today. Dreadlock rock star. I've been singing. Well, I thought he was talking about himself. That's hilarious. I was singing it wrong. I mean, he was singing about himself. No, he was singing about the Buffalo Soldiers. They weren't Rastas.
Simply Bitcoin
A highlight from Taiwan's Next Embracing Bitcoin?! | EP 863
"It's all going to zero against Bitcoin. It's going on forever. You're against Bitcoin. You're against freedom. Yo, what's up? We are back. We're back for another episode of Simply Bitcoin. And today is an interesting story. I did have to do some deep dive for this one. So game theory is heating up in China, guys. The first reading of Taiwan's crypto bill passes. And depending on the source, Taiwan might be on the verge of making Bitcoin legal tender January 24th. It almost seems like this is happening. It's almost like it's inevitable. And Taiwan is embracing Bitcoin. And we all know the saga between China, that we know that we won China policy. We've been covering this all year. And we know how many times China banned Bitcoin. They banned mining. We've seen even Taiwan themselves try to ban Bitcoin. But of course, you can't ban Bitcoin. You can only ban yourself from Bitcoin. And even this week, on Mainland, Hong Kong has been mulling over whether they are going to embrace an ETF as well. So it really makes you wonder. And if you go back for a couple episodes, Niko and I went over this, the idea of maybe China is using different proxies to embrace Bitcoin after officially banning Bitcoin. The dip last we saw, I think that was 2021 now, it's all a blur at this point. Some days they're banning it. Some days they're embracing it. Well, it seems like China or Taiwan, forgive me, is about to make Bitcoin legal tender. And remember, one of the IRLs we did, we had a friend come on here and I'm blanking on exactly which one it was. But he said basically that what they mean when they say crypto is really Bitcoin and they do not talk about what they have under their mattress. So whenever you're hearing crypto come out from the Asian countries, from China in particular, remember that they know what we know. It is Bitcoin only. And there's Bitcoin and then there's other cryptos. Anyways, Bitcoin's global game theory chess match is playing out in real time, guys. And as a Bitcoiner, you just love to see it. The Mexican standoff is continuing to get spicier. It's continuing to heat up. And it's going to be very interesting to see which countries get left behind, which countries don't embrace hard money. And also in that same vein, which countries are fighting their citizenry. And as we always say, forcing them to have fun staying poor. Anyways, welcome to Simply Bitcoin. We are your number one source for the peaceful Bitcoin revolution. We cover breaking news, culture and nomadic warfare. We bring on Bitcoiners from all around the world, from the biggest names to the everyday Bitcoiner. We got them all and we will be your guide through the separation of money and state. And of course, I am not here alone, guys. I am here with Dell, the funky hodl sapien. How are you doing this morning, Dell? Good. I'm dandy. I'm chilling, relaxing, moisturized in my own lane, sitting in a 45 gallon tub of lotion right now. It feels pretty luxurious. Absolutely love it. OK, well, Dell, what are we going to cover on the culture today? We're going to cover that you can't really stop the Internet. You can't stop things from happening the way you want it to. I imagine most of the people that come to this channel are interested in Bitcoin surviving. That's my assumption. There might be some people that come pass by like, oh, what's this all about? But I get the impression that the regulars that I see in the chat, you're Roman, you're wine a kiss. Tyler Durden, what I'm not going to try and talk for wine a kiss. He's a he's a he's a strange cat. That one is people that I see in day in and day out. They're people that are they understand Bitcoin to some degree. They like it to some degree. And they're yeah, thumbs up to that Bitcoin thing. But the idea that it could die or shut down is not something that a lot of us think about all that much. We're like, oh, it can't happen. But here's a question for you, Opti. If you were given a challenge, let's say let's say somebody comes along, Michael Saylor, whatever anybody that you know has the money to say, I'm going to give you a million dollar bounty to shut down Bitcoin. Could you do that? You think you could? Not for a million. There's literally a half a trillion dollar bounty on Bitcoin. You got to you got to you got to put those numbers up. Well, like, do you think you could do it at all? Me personally? No. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. And so the idea that there is some individual out there or group of people that can shut it down is preposterous. But yet there's still and we're going to play this clip. People out there that are honestly, they're relatively smart people in many fields and there's a lot of really smart people that don't understand Bitcoin. It's like shut down. Shut down the Internet. What are you going to do? Go in. People, people are concerned about that, Del. That is definitely on people's minds. Well, I get that. But why? Like, tell me how that happens. Like, walk me through exactly how how it how that would work. Like, please. Like, if you can do it, if somebody can do it, I truly as much as I would like to see tomorrow, would like you would like to see somebody shut down Bitcoin. So we're going to be talking about that in the culture. Like, you can't do it. Like, I want you to if you can, if somebody in chat can do that, by all means, go and do it. Because we need to know that that's a vulnerability when we need to know how that could happen. And oh, wow, there's a guy that's in the simply Bitcoin chat that has the ability to go and flip a switch and shut off Bitcoin. That we should know about that. And I mean, that'd be so funny. Someone in the chat just shuts it off. Anyway, anyway, side tangents. I mean, we even see it and we hear this all the time. I hear this all the time when I talk to my normie friends out there. They're like, what if, you know, like in twenty seventeen, it was like, what if China bans Bitcoin? And like they did it and it didn't stop Bitcoin. I am convinced that every three letter agency around the world, that nation states have also tried to attack Bitcoin and they continue to try to attack Bitcoin. But they can't stop this. They cannot stop digital money for the digital world. And even if the even if we got like some weird by chance EMP or something that shut off all of electricity, we will never go back to a time without the Internet. I am fully convinced of that. The Internet is something that that is ubiquitous with the modern world. It put a pause on things. If people talk about that, like, oh, well, what about. OK, well, just imagine if things that are escalating over in the Middle East and then the whole Russia, Ukraine thing, like imagine things really take off. And they detonate a nuke in the atmosphere over every country in the world and all the Internet goes out. What about your Bitcoin then? Like, do you even hear what you're saying? Like, imagine that scenario and the thing that is going to be on people's minds is food, shelter, is my family safe? And then probably after the first 24 hours, where can I get a I'm just going to say it, a hand job where where the sex workers like where where can I go and trade these bullets that have been stocking up for, you know, a little me time with with Old Destiny over there? And I do mean old because she was in the business for a hot minute and she's looking a little more now, but she's got the experience. And that's what you're going to want to go to when times are tough. You're going to want to go to the person that knows how to get you to that happy place. So, yeah, you're going to check in on Destiny and give her some bullets for some fun times. But you're not going to be thinking about Bitcoin. You're not going to be thinking about all my cat pictures and all the trad wives on Twitter talking about how they're grass feeding their goats. No, you're not going to be paying attention to any of that. You're gonna be like, what do I need to survive? That's it. That is that is it. That's all you're going to be paying attention to. So this idea that, oh, what happens to your Bitcoin? It's like, go fuck yourself. What are you talking about? Listen to yourself. Is grandma alive in a nursing home? Because there's no oxygen on. What's your first concern if the nukes go off and there's no Internet Opti? Is it is my note still on? No, it's thinking about people in my local community and can I survive? Exactly. Exactly. All right. Well, this is going to be a spicy one. I can already tell this is going to be a spicy one. Let's get into the show, guys. This time seeds do it yourself kit has everything you need to hammer your seed words into commercial grade titanium plates instead of just writing them on paper. Don't store your generational wealth on paper. Paper is prone to water damage, fire damage. You want to put your generational wealth on one of the strongest metals on planet Earth, titanium. Your words are actually stamped into this metal plate with this hammer and these letter stamps. And once your words are in, they aren't going anywhere. No risk of the plate breaking apart and pieces falling everywhere. Titanium stamp seeds will survive nearly triple the heat produced by a house fire. They're also crush proof, waterproof, non corrosive and time proof. All things that paper is not allowing you to huddle your Bitcoin with peace of mind for the long haul. Stamp your seed on stamp seed. Yeah, the chat. You guys are wild. Love you guys. Anyway, we made this easy for you. Scan the QR code. Make sure your seed phrases backed up on something stronger than just a piece of paper in your sock drawer. Make sure it's backed up on titanium, guys. This is the way scan the QR code. Get yourself a stamp seed kit. And we have been in the talks of getting a simply Bitcoin branded one. But maybe maybe you don't want that OPSEC unfriendly version. But anyways, scan the QR code. Go check it out. Get yourself one. Stamp your seed in titanium. All right, guys. Anyways, we're over here on the numbers. We're at Clark Moody's dashboard. Of course, my favorite number is the block height. We are currently at eight hundred and fifteen thousand eight hundred and eighty six. Take talk next block. Honey, bad you don't care. Blocks keep coming in. We are what? Twenty four thousand one hundred and fourteen blocks away from the halving roughly around April 20th of twenty twenty four. So it's happening in time, guys. We know exactly what's happening with the monetary policy that is Bitcoin. You love to see it. Bitcoin is my stable coin. Bitcoin is stability. Anyways, the current price on Bitcoin is thirty five thousand three hundred and forty dollars per Bitcoin. The Moscow time, a .k .a. how much your fiat dollars worth, a .k .a. how much Bitcoin you can buy for a single U .S. dollar is two thousand eight hundred and thirty cents per dollar. The percentage of total Bitcoin that will ever be issued is ninety three point zero three percent. The market cap and fiat terms of Bitcoin is six hundred and ninety billion dollars or six hundred ninety point three billion dollars. The realized monetary inflation of Bitcoin taking fiat currencies to school is one point seventy four percent. It's going to get cut in half. Well, I think it's going to slowly. Is it going to get cut in half? I think it's going to cut in half. I think that's what the halving does to it. Anyways, Bitcoin versus gold market cap is currently at five point two seven percent. We are only at five point two seven percent of the gold market cap. The hard money gang. We're coming for gold. Gold market cap is ten trillion dollars. Only five percent of that, guys. And you guys are bearish out there. Couldn't be me. Can't relate. Anyways, the total public lightning capacity is five thousand three hundred and five point zero seven BTC. The hash rate has been going absolutely parabolic. Of course, this is just a rough guesstimate of what is going on on the Bitcoin network. But something is happening and people are uploading and turning on a lot of A6. The last 90 days, we are at four hundred and twenty point one exahashes. The pending fees. Oh, my goodness. It's spiking right now. Eleven point four four BTC, at least according to the mempool that Clark Moody is connected to. We've been telling you for a while. You wanted to make sure that you are consolidating your UTXOs because things are going to get crazy. This will probably cool down a little bit. I think I did hear that there's some like ordinal BRC 20 stuff going on right now. Yeah. So that's probably why we're seeing this spike right now in the fee market. So once it gets a little cooler, oops, oops, sorry. It gets a little cooler. Not wrong, though. Yeah, not wrong. Once you once you get a little cooler in the fee market, I suggest you guys take the opportunity to consolidate your UTXOs. Make sure that you have good UTXO hygiene. Anyways. All right, guys, I'm going to connect last night's TTO that I did with CJ. I hope you guys watch that. I do have it up here for you guys to show you that you need to go watch this. And I took a little piece out of there. But here we are. We got Neil Kashkar. And remember who he is. He's the crazy guy that was coming out when we were going through the the, you know, the flu pandemic. And he was telling us that they can print unlimited money. And they clarified that question. And we got the memes of him with crazy eyes, like, wait, so you're telling me you can print unlimited money? And he said, yes, that's exactly what I'm telling you. Well, here he is again. And if you listen to last night's TTO. And you will listen to this this morning. You really start to realize just how detached these quote unquote elites are, how detached the Fed is from reality. You really would ask yourself what is going on. And again, I reference the white paper constantly on here because it's literally in the first paragraph of the white paper. Satoshi was so prescient when it came to this because he saw the fundamental problem of the fiat system. It is its trust based system, inherent trust that you need to just trust that these people know what they're doing. And we're seeing in real time that people still seem to trust them. And if you look at the data. There is no reason to trust them. Anyways, Neel Kashkari in this little video here goes, I'm not seeing a lot of evidence that the economy is weakening. And he discusses market expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank next year. So let's just listen to him and remember the idea that the only reason the system is continuing to hobble along as it is, is because people out there still believe these people in the suits that they know what is going on. Trust the experts. They know exactly what's going on. Trust the guy in the suit on the television telling you that they have the economy under control, that interest rates are under control, that the Fed knows where we're going. And if you really look at the data, it may be completely different and telling you a different story. Anyways, let's listen to this, guys. You said that people want certainty and that you can't give it to them. And I understand that. But people don't just want certainty. They also want some sort of guiding philosophy. Do you think that Fed Chair Powell has outlined some sort of guiding philosophy on where the bar is to cut rates, on where the bar is to raise them further? Well, I think he's articulated very clearly that we're committed to getting back to 2 % inflation, right? There's been some chatter amongst economists that maybe we should raise the inflation target. I think he's done a great job saying that is not on the table. We're not going to do that. We're going to get inflation back to 2%. And we're going to let the data guide us. We've moved very aggressively. We've made a lot of progress on inflation. We're not done yet, meaning inflation is not back to our target. And if we need to do more, we will. There seems to be a feeling in markets that the bar to cut rates has been lowered over the past week or two weeks. That suddenly, not only are we reaching a pause, and have we seen a peak in the Fed funds rate, but that also the Fed will cut next year, maybe surgically. Neil Dutta is talking about that. He's coming up next. Do you want to push back against that? Do you think that the bar to cut is still just as high as it was? I have no idea where market participants are getting that. There's no discussion amongst me and any of my colleagues about when we're going to start preparing to cut rates. The only thing that's been talked about at all is that at some point, when inflation is well on its way back down, if we didn't back off a little bit, the real rates would be getting tighter and tighter and tighter. And that's real, but that's math. But is there enough weakness currently in the market, in the economy, I should say, to give you that sense at this point? Look at the last GDP print. I mean, does anybody look at that and think, oh my gosh, the economy? For the last 12 months, GDP has been very strong. The labor market continues to be quite robust. Yes, the unemployment rate has ticked up to 3 .9%, but we've also seen a huge surge of labor supply, which is really positive, come online. So I'm looking at this. I'm seeing consumers that are strong. By the way, my airplane that I came here on was 100 % full yesterday. It's going to be 100 % full today. I'm not seeing a lot of evidence that the economy is weakening.
Thinking Crypto News & Interviews
A highlight from BITCOIN'S NEXT MOVE & 2024 & 2025 Price Predictions with Caleb Franzen
"Is very strong for Bitcoin. And if Bitcoin is strong, as we all know, that creates a massive ripple effect throughout the entire kind of crypto ecosystem where good things can happen at the very least. This content is brought to you by Uphold, which makes crypto investing easy. I've been a user of Uphold since 2018, so I trust this platform and I can vouch for it. They have a full functional app, a full functional website, and they carry Bitcoin and all the top altcoins, including stablecoins. You can also trade precious metals on this platform and as well as 37 fiat currencies. So Uphold is available in over 150 countries and they are a safe platform. They have full reserve of customer assets. They don't commingle or lend your funds out and they provide audits of their reserves. So it's a safe platform and I trust it, I vouch for it, and I've interviewed the CEO, the CFO, and other representatives of the company. So if you'd like to learn more about Uphold, please visit the link in the description. Welcome to the Thinking Crypto podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. With me today is Caleb Franzen, who's the founder of Cubic Analytics. Caleb, it's great to have you back on. Tony, good to see you, man. I think the last time we were here was back in April, I want to say. So six, seven months ago is a good recurring basis to get back together and talk markets, man. Yeah, absolutely, man. And you provide some valuable insights in your newsletter as well as on Twitter or X, as Elon would call it now. So I've been following you and appreciate your insights. So I wanted to get you on here to go a bit deeper and talk about what's the outlook for Bitcoin in the short term as well as long -term and some of the top altcoins. What are your thoughts on the recent rally and do you expect Bitcoin to go a bit higher? Things are looking pretty solid. I think at the beginning of the year, I started out a little bit towards the doom and gloom side. But one of the things that I said was regardless of what was going to be happening in the markets this year, I was going to be buying assets. I was going to be buying equities. I was going to be buying Bitcoin. And that's exactly what I've been doing pretty much all year. Back in January, something very important happened, and that was the price of Bitcoin got above the short -term holder realized price, which is basically the short -term cost basis of all Bitcoin that has been transacted within a six -month window. And historically, that's always a bull market signal. If price can get above the short -term holder realized price and stay above that level, good things tend to happen. Every bull market in Bitcoin's history is characterized by that one simple fact. Then a bunch of other bullish signals happened thereafter. And so piece by piece, indicator by indicator, we've been stacking bullish evidence. And now we actually have the fundamentals to really back this up. We have the halving, which is basically 160 days away. We have spot ETFs that are basically, I truly believe plural, are going to be getting approved likely in a blanket approval process. And then if my macro outlook is on track, we're going to have continued disinflation, which is likely going to be bullish for assets across the board. I think it already has been very bullish this year. Look at the stock market, look at Bitcoin, look at Ethereum, so on and so forth. But if that disinflation continues, as I look forward, I've been referring to it as non -recessionary or disinflationary rate cuts beginning in the third quarter of next year. At this point, I'm not willing to entertain rate cuts before then. But my thesis right now is that the Fed will start to do a total of 100 to 250 basis points worth of cuts. If they do that from a pause of 5 .33%, we're really going to have still tight rates, still high real federal funds rate, real interest rates, so on and so forth, but just less restrictive than if they continue to pause. And so I think the Fed is recognizing that. They're not openly admitting it yet, because they're still using their rhetoric and forward guidance as a policy tool. That's one of the big benefits that they have. They can forecast to the market, even if they're kind of fibbing, or they want to maintain maximum flexibility. And so they're giving themselves a long leash with a lot of slack. And so, man, I'm feeling very optimistic about Bitcoin, especially right now. I've recently started buying Bitcoin mining stocks. Once again, I was trading those at the beginning of the year with a lot, a lot of success. And now I'm really kind of viewing this as a six to 12 -month thesis for the miners. So I'm basically going to be DC 'ing into those over the next two months, probably daily. And so I'm feeling very optimistic about things right now. So I'm happy to kind of take that wherever you want, but that's kind of my baseline. Yeah. And great points you brought up and with the macro and the Fed and their narratives and things they're doing. And it seems, to your point, that they are officially paused. Now, there's always the possibility that they could raise, but it seems like they're officially paused. And as you mentioned, with the halving coming up, the Bitcoin spot ETF approvals around the corner, certainly a bullish time. So if you can share the Bitcoin chart and tell us what you're seeing for the short term. Some people are saying, hey, this is a start to the run up to new all -time highs. Some are saying, hey, this is like a 2019 move. A retracement will probably hit a certain Fibonacci level and then roll over. And then the slow steady grind to new all -time highs in 2025. What's your thoughts and thesis around that? So here's Bitcoin. And one of the things that I like to use, I don't rely on the exponential moving average specifically, and I don't look at the simple moving average specifically. So something I'm trying to kind of shine more light on is something that I'm calling the 200 -day moving average cloud. So I'm combining both of them. The EMA is shown in teal, and the SMA is shown in yellow. And we could see very clearly, this has been a strong level of both dynamic support and resistance. In my opinion, so long as we stay above this level, good things happen. We've been able to stay above it now after a brief consolidation below. You can see in several cases here, we actually used it as resistance, flipped it into support, taking off. So this is very optimistic kind of price structure overall. And now we've really kind of cleared through this range as well. This was a level that I was highlighting back in January, actually, when we got above the 200 -day moving average cloud, saying, now we need to focus on the next level of structural resistance. So I was calling for this range even above 25 ,000 going all the way up to 30K back then. And we ticked it a couple of times, and we've sold off since then. So now we're back above it. It's now valid potential support. And so I continue to think so long as we stay above this level, which is basically from 31 ,000 all the way to 32 .8K, we could see price rebound here for sure. But overall, this chart looks fantastic. One of the things that I mentioned earlier was this short -term holder realized price. And so as we look at the dynamics right now with respect to the short -term holder realized price, it also looks very similar to what we're seeing on that 200 -day moving average cloud. We flipped it into resistance. We had the breakout here, support, support, temporary breakdown here. This was a bit of a concern for me. But so long as we're back above it, I think we can be very, very optimistic. And so one of the things that I say about my approach personally is that I always try to stay dynamic and flexible based on the data and the chart in front of me. So if we fall below the short -term holder realized price, you're going to see me on podcasts. You're going to see me on Twitter sounding a little bit more defensive, not necessarily bearish, but willing to be patient and willing to kind of consider downside scenarios. If we stay above this level, I'm going to be coming on these shows saying, we're going higher, we're going higher, we're going higher. This is bullish price structure because it is. So that thesis might be wrong. Things can change. Markets are dynamic. We don't know what the future holds. So it's really important to kind of have, first of all, levels of invalidation and places that we can kind of stay dynamic based on data, based on indicators and based on statistics. And so as I look at this right now, I also want to highlight one other fact, which is that this short -term holder realized price, look at the slope of it. So in terms of the rate of change, that red level is grinding higher and higher. That is generally emblematic of a bull market because it indicates that short -term holders increasing are their cost basis over the past six months. And that's what you want to see in a bull market is people continuing to bid, continuing to bid, price grind higher, people keep bidding, and that short -term holder realized price steadily moves higher. If we look at something like the long -term holder realized price, we see almost the exact same dynamic taking place. It's much flatter. But if we really kind of zoom in on this level, and let's actually even go a little bit closer, we can see now that this is really starting to tick higher basically since August and September, right? So as this long -term holder realized price also starts to grind higher, again, this is very bullish for the long term. The last chart that I'll share with Bitcoin is I mentioned this 200 -day moving average cloud, but the one for me that's the most important is this 200 -week moving average cloud. So basically the exact same indicator, and we're solidly above that. Once again, I outlined this as a price target in January 25 ,000 and said, if we can get above there, it'll be very bullish. Sure enough, we broke above and we flipped it into support now several times. We've been writing this 200 -week moving average cloud as almost perfect support. We haven't closed below it all the way since March of this year before the banking crisis, right? So the fact that this is still working as dynamic support and it also has a positive slash rising slope is very strong for Bitcoin. And if Bitcoin is strong, as we all know, that creates a massive ripple effect throughout the entire kind of crypto ecosystem where good things can happen at the very least. I'll just leave it at that. And so I think whether or not you're someone who leans towards being a Bitcoin maximalist, whether you're a short -term trader, whether you're solely focused on investing in altcoins, you have to be watching these Bitcoin charts. And at the very least, they're all showing us bullish dynamics right now. So as far as I'm concerned, this looks fantastic. So do you see the move upwards similar to 2016 or a 2019 to 2020 type scenario? I know it's hard to predict that because like you said, the market's dynamic and we have to wait as the data comes in. But what does your gut tell you? Because as we discussed, we have these narratives, these strong narratives like the Bitcoin halving and as well as the Bitcoin bodies, which could send the price a little parabolic, maybe not to new all -time highs in the immediate, but in the short term, a strong move up. This cycle, in my opinion, is very different than prior cycles. I still expect to see the halving have a very similar effect. Everyone who I talk to, even people who are in the crypto ecosystem, a lot of people are dismissing the impact of the halving. And someone asked me recently like, based your on thesis with the halving, with these non -recessionary rate cuts, with the spot ETF approvals, doesn't everybody know all of this? Isn't this already priced in? And I was saying, I don't think it is because everyone is talking about, oh, the halving isn't going to have as much of an impact as it had in the past, if any impact at all. People are debating if the halving is even a useful indicator for price or a catalyst for price. Everyone knows about the spot ETFs, but a lot of people aren't really sure. I saw someone recently talking about, hey, Canada has had a spot ETF for over a year. How come that hasn't created? So even still, there's all this concern about whether or not the spot ETFs are going to have a catalyst for moving higher. And I don't really think too many people are talking about non -recessionary rate cuts in the third quarter of next year. So in my opinion, not much of this is really priced in yet. And I think one of the big kind of takeaways, so let me just tie this back into your question, which is what kind of cycle does this mimic or mirror? If I would pick any of them, I would say 2019, just because the risk of a recession is still there. So if we think back to 2019, we bottomed in December of 2018, and we started to move higher from there. And then COVID happened. We have some exogenous recession, which brought price down significantly. We fell from over 10 ,000 back down to 3 ,500. We could still have one of those scenarios. So I don't want people watching this to just hear me come on here and just sound like it's up only from here. We still have to consider downside scenarios. And so I would say maybe 2019 is most similar. But in the event that we can avoid that recession, get those disinflationary rate cuts, and then we have the halving catalyst plus spot ETFs coming online, I think one of the big takeaways that I had from that whole coin telegraph debacle was that we had a $5 ,000 candle in 15 minutes on unverified news. And so the thing I've been encouraging people to think about and ask this question is how does price react to an SEC press release, if not a press conference, about spot ETF blanket approvals? How does the market react to, in a sustained manner, to verified news about this getting approved? How does the market react to BlackRock really coming on TV every week, every month, pounding the table on Bitcoin, advertising, calling up wealth management shops, the whole nine yards? I mean, I used to work in wealth management. We used to get hounded all the time by these ETF companies and their sales reps to talk about their products. They wanted to take you out for lunch, this, that, and the other. So what does that look like with BlackRock, with Valkyrie, with ARK, with Wisdom Tree, with all of these companies coming out promoting their spot Bitcoin ETFs? And so if we had like, let me tie this back now because I'm going on my soapbox tangent because I get so excited. If we had a $5 ,000 candle in 15 minutes, genuinely ask yourself, what does that market environment look like when we get a formal announcement, press releases from the SEC, press releases from BlackRock and all these ETFs, so on and so forth in a sustained manner? And so I think if and when that does happen, this market environment, or that market environment is going to look completely unlike what we've ever seen in the past. Yeah, it's a good point. I've been also thinking about that. Once that news goes live, what's going to happen, right? It's going to be euphoria, people are going to go a bit nuts, but also in the back of my mind, I'm cautiously optimistic because I see in the macro, look, the stock market doesn't look that strong. It looks a little bearish. In addition, you have these economic factors where debt is at an all time high, not just for the government, but for consumers, credit card, and it seems like something's going to break. I'm not saying I want that to happen. It's just, it feels very 2008 -ish, not with the housing market, but personal consumers and their credit card debt and car loans and so forth. So I'm like, how can these two things be running in parallel? But maybe like you said, it's a completely different time. The Fed and the central banks can print money and artificially inflate certain things where they can inject money behind the scenes. I don't know, but this is where all my thoughts are. And I'm like, hmm, I don't know what's going to happen next. It's tumultuous for sure, right? And I think generally I had a very defensive kind of outlook on what macro was going to be this year. And I think everyone, regardless of what their preconceived notions were going into the beginning of the year, should be pleasantly surprised at the resilient nature of the economy, of the labor market, of the US consumer. You talk about consumer debt, but what most people don't do is divide that consumer debt by personal disposable income. And that level is at historic lows, right? It's certainly creeping up higher, but on a relative basis, relative to income, that debt is very, very manageable, actually. And I saw so many headlines about this a couple of months ago about consumer credit cards crossing $1 trillion in balances. There's still well over $2 .5 trillion in unused credit card amounts. So basically, these consumers have the ability to tap into much, much more credit if they actually wanted to and needed to. And so the fact that we're simply at a trillion in and of itself is not reflective of a negative economic environment from my perspective. And look, I'm someone who used to be a hardcore gold bug. I used to be a massive advocate of Peter Schiff and what he used to talk about. And so I used to be extremely concerned about things like deficits and credit and the Fed's money printing until you realize that it really doesn't create actionable investment advice. And at the end of the day, I think you have to ask yourself and look in the mirror, are we here to be right or are we here to make money? And so if you're a trader, you're certainly looking to be both. If you're going to make money, you almost intrinsically have to be right. But I think if you're going to have your focus be on macro, I see so many people who have really pigeonholed themselves into a corner about being very bearish. And it's that classic phrase about the broken clock can be right twice a day. And eventually, those people will be proven correct. We are certainly going to have a recession. It's just a matter of does that recession happen six months, 12 months, 24 months or 36 months down the line? And if it does happen somehow 36 months down the line, what do asset markets do over the next 36 months? So what, are you going to stay sidelined for the next 36 months because you think a recession is coming? I mean, be my guest. That's not how I'm going to invest and allocate my personal portfolio. So for me, I stopped paying as much attention to that. And I started kind of approaching it from almost like a first principles perspective and kind of diving a little bit deeper into these numbers and starting to realize those talking points are exactly that. They're bearish macro doomer talking points. But again, I don't think that they actually provide actionable sound investment advice, I guess you could say. Yeah. And that's a great point, Caleb, because I look back at 2020 when the economy got shut down, yet markets were pumping. I mean, it's almost surreal, right? When you think about it, stock market was going crazy, Bitcoin and the crypto market was going crazy in a period where there was panic, fear and shutdown, right? So to your point, yes, those things exist, but you can't focus too much on them and there's not usually that many actionable items from them. Sure. And I think the biggest takeaway from this mini conversation that we're having here on macro is it's really important to remember, and I've talked about this in the past, the stock market is not the economy.
Coronavirus
A highlight from Arbitrum Approves ARB Staking Proposal
"Welcome to your Ethereum news roundup, here is your latest for Monday November 6th, 2023 Arbitrum Governance approves a preliminary staking proposal, voting opens for the formation of the Arbitrum coalition, Aave pauses the Aavev2 Ethereum market, and voting opens for RetroPGF3. All this and more starts right now. Arbitrum Governance approved a preliminary vote to allocate 1 % of the total ARB supply in the Arbitrum DAO treasury amounting to 100 million ARB tokens to establish a staking program. The contract will distribute native yield to ARB token lockers across a span of 12 months. The initiative is separate from the Arbitrum short -term incentives programs and Arbitrum grants. The staking mechanism serves as an alternative to sequencer revenue sharing, which carries legal complexities. Notably, staking will not serve the purpose of economic security. A new coalition would also be tasked with data collection and auditing of the staking contract. Before staking can be activated, the proposal must pass through a formal on -chain vote on Tally. Voting is currently open for a proposal to establish the Arbitrum coalition, which includes Blockworks Research, Guantlet, and Trail of Bits. The initiative seeks to perform research and development for the Arbitrum DAO, aiming to enhance the DAO's decision -making process with thorough research services over a 12 -month period. In return for their services, the coalition members are requesting compensation of 2 .2 million ARB tokens in total. The funding request has sparked debate due to its significant size, which is equivalent to an annual salary of $1 .3 million for each participating role. The proposal is contentious, currently holding a 57 % approval rate. Voting ends on November 10th. Following a validated vulnerability report, the AVID Community Guardian has paused the AVIDv2 Ethereum market. Select assets on the AVIDv3 markets on Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism have also been frozen. No funds are at risk, and users can still withdraw and repay positions in frozen markets. Markets not impacted include AVIDv3 on Ethereum, Base, and Metis. The liquidations grace Sentinel, a newly implemented safeguard across all networks under protective measures, introduces a grace period that temporarily halts liquidations, providing users with time to manage their positions. A governance proposal is underway to upgrade stable debt tokens to enhance security. The AVID Community Guardian is a group of community elected members within a 6 -of -10 multisig that holds the authority to enable certain protocol -level controls in emergency situations. And lastly, voting is now open for Optimism's RetroPGF Round 3, a third retroactive public goods funding round in which 30 million OP tokens will be distributed to projects that have contributed to the Optimism Collective. A total of 145 badgeholders, which are part of the Citizen's House, will vote on the allocation of tokens. Over 600 projects providing public goods have been accepted into the round, including ETH daily. Voting is open between now and December 7th. In other news, NFT -focused Layer 2 network Frame deployed its testnet for all users, Notional v3 is now live on Arbitrum, and OP Red is now available as an Optimism client. This has been a roundup of today's top news stories in Ethereum. You can support this podcast by subscribing and following us on Twitter at ethdaily. Also subscribe to our newsletter at ethdaily .io. Thanks for listening, we'll see you tomorrow.
Ethereum Daily
A highlight from Arbitrum Approves ARB Staking Proposal
"Welcome to your Ethereum news roundup, here is your latest for Monday November 6th, 2023 Arbitrum Governance approves a preliminary staking proposal, voting opens for the formation of the Arbitrum coalition, Aave pauses the Aavev2 Ethereum market, and voting opens for RetroPGF3. All this and more starts right now. Arbitrum Governance approved a preliminary vote to allocate 1 % of the total ARB supply in the Arbitrum DAO treasury amounting to 100 million ARB tokens to establish a staking program. The contract will distribute native yield to ARB token lockers across a span of 12 months. The initiative is separate from the Arbitrum short -term incentives programs and Arbitrum grants. The staking mechanism serves as an alternative to sequencer revenue sharing, which carries legal complexities. Notably, staking will not serve the purpose of economic security. A new coalition would also be tasked with data collection and auditing of the staking contract. Before staking can be activated, the proposal must pass through a formal on -chain vote on Tally. Voting is currently open for a proposal to establish the Arbitrum coalition, which includes Blockworks Research, Guantlet, and Trail of Bits. The initiative seeks to perform research and development for the Arbitrum DAO, aiming to enhance the DAO's decision -making process with thorough research services over a 12 -month period. In return for their services, the coalition members are requesting compensation of 2 .2 million ARB tokens in total. The funding request has sparked debate due to its significant size, which is equivalent to an annual salary of $1 .3 million for each participating role. The proposal is contentious, currently holding a 57 % approval rate. Voting ends on November 10th. Following a validated vulnerability report, the AVID Community Guardian has paused the AVIDv2 Ethereum market. Select assets on the AVIDv3 markets on Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism have also been frozen. No funds are at risk, and users can still withdraw and repay positions in frozen markets. Markets not impacted include AVIDv3 on Ethereum, Base, and Metis. The liquidations grace Sentinel, a newly implemented safeguard across all networks under protective measures, introduces a grace period that temporarily halts liquidations, providing users with time to manage their positions. A governance proposal is underway to upgrade stable debt tokens to enhance security. The AVID Community Guardian is a group of community elected members within a 6 -of -10 multisig that holds the authority to enable certain protocol -level controls in emergency situations. And lastly, voting is now open for Optimism's RetroPGF Round 3, a third retroactive public goods funding round in which 30 million OP tokens will be distributed to projects that have contributed to the Optimism Collective. A total of 145 badgeholders, which are part of the Citizen's House, will vote on the allocation of tokens. Over 600 projects providing public goods have been accepted into the round, including ETH daily. Voting is open between now and December 7th. In other news, NFT -focused Layer 2 network Frame deployed its testnet for all users, Notional v3 is now live on Arbitrum, and OP Red is now available as an Optimism client. This has been a roundup of today's top news stories in Ethereum. You can support this podcast by subscribing and following us on Twitter at ethdaily. Also subscribe to our newsletter at ethdaily .io. Thanks for listening, we'll see you tomorrow.
The Bitboy Crypto Podcast
A highlight from New Altcoin Trending! (Ethereum Killer?)
"Is Celestia Tia the next Ethereum killer and can it 100x in this next crypto bull run? For you guys that don't know, Celestia has been trending on CoinMarketCap and has been getting quite the engagement on Twitter as users claim that the airdrop was perfectly executed and that the project speaks for itself. So is this altcoin about to rip like Solana in 2021? It's time to discover crypto. Welcome back everybody to another episode here at Discover Crypto. I'm your host today, Joshua Jake, and today we're gonna be diving into the tokenomics of Celestia. Now I've worked with dozens of launchpads and I can tell you that the most important thing when it comes to researching a token and being able to tell if it can pump later in the future can all be found in something known as the vesting schedule. But first you need to know what Celestia is. With the token as TIA or Tia, it is supposed to be the first modular blockchain network. They're claiming to be able to deploy fast contracts, be scalable, customizable VMs, and also allow you to build sovereign rollups. Who even cares? Can the number go up? You see, we can go into Celestia's formerly known as Lazy Ledger's white paper, but some alpha for you guys is white papers are just massive sales pitches. In six months is going to be another smart contract protocol or development protocol or layer zero that claims to be faster, more scalable, more decentralized, and cheaper. What I want to find first is by going to cryptorink .io and find the ICO details on Celestia and go to fundraising. This is where you can find if a project sold their souls to the devil, aka venture capitalist. As we could see here, we can see that they had a private sale twice on the same day that both ended in the raise of $55 million. These private sales are the venture capitalist institutions, contributors, early founders, et cetera, that get into the token before the public sale on an exchange. So how many tokens are held pre -ICO before retail buyers like me and you can even get in? Well, all you got to do is head over to vesting and scroll down and see the token unlock allocation. And this is abysmal. You see, research and development teams are going to get 26%. Series A and B funders are going to get the 19 .7%. Initial core contributors, which are not us, is going to be your initial core contributors, is 17 .6%. Seed investors, another 15 .9%. Future initiatives, which is 12 .6 % and can arguably be just wrapped into research and another 12 .6%. All that the public is really going to see from the Genesis drop would be 7 .4%. And guess what? A lot of those early founders, early contributors, VCs, et cetera, they're going to get a massive portion of that Genesis drop as well. And that's very easy to prove. You see, despite people on Twitter arguing that free tokens over worth $160 million was released, how awesome of them? Was it really awesome? Well, it must've been because the early contributors sold pretty quickly as soon as their tokens were unlocked. But what about the rest of the price action? Can this continue to do a 10X? Can it 50X? Can it 100X in this next bull run? Well, currently Celestia is sitting at a $340 million market cap with a circulating supply of roughly 14 % out of the 1 billion tokens that will be released. 14 % is gross. That is a VC cesspool because that means the majority of tokens are going to be still held by early funders and contributors that will be releasing their tokens as soon as the vesting schedule ends. Now, luckily we are potentially starting a new bull run and you have roughly 12 months before the next tokens unlock. And by the way, there's already 267 million that are unlocked today. So early contributors, the founders, the ecosystem, et cetera, they can add about 100 % of tokens to the circulating supply, making the price actually dilute by over 50%. But watch this number here. On October 30th, 2024, you're going to see that supply actually double, which means that there's less than 365 days that the team and the marketing has to pump that price action up pretty intensely before seeing a massive dilution in tokenomics. Now I'd love to click on their team page from their website, but it looks like it's having some issues. So I found what I could on crypto rank. And as you can see, we have Mustafa Al -Basam as their CEO, and you have Nick White right below him who is the COO. So first thing I want to do is head over to LinkedIn. LinkedIn should be your best friend if you guys are researching crypto projects and you want to look into their past history. Are these founders or are these CEOs or developers, people that are experienced, have they built successful projects in the past? Where are they from? Now, what stood out most to me for him was that he was the co -founder and researcher for a project known as ChainSpace, which he sold to Facebook in 2019. And he did scientific research on scaling blockchains at Baselayer to build a sharded smart contract platform. So that's a green flag. I mean, he's really smart and sold a company to meta. Now I'd advise you guys to do that for every single person on the team and look through their LinkedIn. But the most important person I'm going to be really looking up and looking into is going to be their head of marketing. Now you could say I'm too critical about this project, but this is where I saw a red flag. Their head of marketing is the only one you cannot find anything on the internet. Everyone else has a Twitter, they have a LinkedIn, they have GitHubs, and this guy who's supposedly supposed to be marketing the project has no public awareness. We have no idea if he's been successful with other partnerships or collaborators on any other chain or anything in the web3 industry, which means every other team member that's on this list, in my opinion, is more qualified than Ekrem to run the head of marketing. As someone who's helped consulted and advise on dozens of projects, this is a big issue to me. This guy is supposedly managing millions of dollars for marketing for Celestia and doesn't even have a Twitter. As for the rest of the team, of course they're going to have stack development. The technology behind this could actually be quite decent. Multiple their advisors and team members come directly from Cosmos or Tendermint, which is also a part of the Cosmos ecosystem. But, and there is a but there, this vesting schedule is nearly as greedy as it can get when it comes to venture capitals. And even though that most of it has a one -year cliff, you should replace the term cliff with ticking time bomb because venture capitals do not care about you. Early founders, early investors, they do not care about you. All they care about is making a bag. They use retail as exit liquidity. And you have 55 million dollars from venture capitals that are going to want their money back. So can it 5 to 10x? Of course. If we get a Bitcoin spot ETF, altcoins are going to pump ravishly in this next 6 to 18 months. However, you have to remember that this project specifically is going to have a massive token unlock in less than a year, which means retail investors are going to be like salmon trying to migrate up river during winter while the hundreds of millions of dollars of VC capital floods downstream. So based off this analysis, I do not believe it's going to kill or take over Ethereum or Solana. The only bullish takeaway I take from anything from Celestia is that these VCs just made a project go from 0 to 300 million dollars in a bear market, which means VCs are getting more excited for the market to come. With that, guys, make sure you smash the like button and let me know in the comments, is there any other projects you want me to look into and dive into their vesting schedules and team? Because remember that crypto is just Wall Street 2 .0. And if you want to play with the wolves, if you want to play in this jungle, you need to think like a venture capitalist. And I'm here to do just that. So make sure you turn on the notifications and I'll see you in the next video.
What Bitcoin Did
A highlight from Bitcoin vs the Infinite Money Printer with Luke Gromen
"They're not going to cut the entitlements. They're going to print the money. And they're going to print the money with oil at 90. They're going to print the money with Bitcoin at 35 ,000. They're going to print the money. They're going to print the money. Happy Monday. How are you all doing? Did you have a good weekend? I did. OK. Real Bedford. They won on the weekend and were top of the league. So that is Real Bedford men and Real Bedford ladies both at the top of their respective league. What a start to the season. We've both got massive cup games this weekend. Get anywhere near Bedford and you want to come down, especially on Saturday, because before the men's game at 12 o 'clock, we've got a meet up. And I'm going to be joined by Robert Breedlove. So please do come down to Bedford. Come down to McMullen Park, enjoy some football, enjoy some Bitcoin, and hang out with the man Breedlove himself. Anyway, welcome to the What Bitcoin Did podcast, which is brought to you by the massive legends at Iris Energy, the largest NASDAQ listed Bitcoin miner using 100 % renewable energy. I'm your host, Peter McCormack. And today, we've got macro genius Luke Gorman back on the show. Now Luke is one of our absolute favorites here at WBD. Me, Danny, and producer Ben all love Luke, and he brought the fire this episode. We get into the infinite money printer, the bond market getting crushed, inflation, and social unrest in the US. We covered the lot. I know you're going to love this one, but if you've got any questions about this, any feedback, anything else, please do hit me up. It's hellowhatbitcoindid .com. And if you haven't checked out our event next year in April, Cheat Code, please head over to cheatcode .co .uk to get yourself a ticket. All right, on to the show. Luke, how are you? I'm doing well, Peter. How are you today? Yeah, I'm doing well. I do wonder if we'll ever jump on one of these calls. We do every six to 12 months and be like, yeah, do you know what? The economy's good. The banks are making good decisions. The government's doing well. It has no inflation. The world's all right. That would be nice, you know, we could all go to the beach and have a margarita or something. Yeah, it's a bit weird. It seems like everything's just getting worse. We had planned all these things to talk about and just while Danny was setting up the cameras, I was flicking through, I hate saying X, I'm going to keep it to Twitter. And our mutual friend Linaldin tweeted out that the Treasury expects to borrow nearly 1 .6 trillion in net new debt during the six month period covering this quarter and the next quarter. Is there no limit to how much money they're going to borrow? It seems like the bond market is maybe making the early noises about attempting to restrict what they can borrow without Fed help, but it's really ultimately a function of what's the dollar, what's the bond market doing, what's the dollar doing? It's that classic rates versus currency decision. Can you explain that? Can you walk us through that? What is the bond market saying and explain it so I understand. Sure, so there's sort of the case for most places and then there's a case for the US because where the reserve currency is sure. And you also have this giant offshore dollar borrowing market, right, the euro dollar market, but there's 13 trillion dollars in offshore dollar denominated debt according to the BIS. So means that the implications of that are that as the dollar goes higher, so the Fed raises rates, the dollar goes up, dollar goes up, the foreigners who have borrowed in dollars see their effective borrowing rate go up, the cost of servicing that dollar debt goes up and so they need to somehow raise dollars. Well, they can't print dollars like the Fed, so where do they get their dollars from? Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on which side of it you're on, foreigners have run surpluses against the United States by virtue of how the system works for a long time and particularly in the last 25 to 30 years. And so foreigners have about 18 trillion dollars net, so I don't want to say it's closer to 40 trillion gross, but I think it's 18 trillion dollars net in US dollar assets more than we have of theirs. It's this net international investment position I've talked about. So they have 18 trillion dollars of dollar assets, about seven point six trillion of that are Treasury bonds. And so, yes, they are short dollars, but only to the extent they are unwilling to sell treasuries to get dollars or sell stocks to get dollars to defend. And so what you see is this virtuous or vicious, I guess it is vicious cycle where the dollar goes up. Foreigners are forced to sell treasuries that rates go up as rates go up, the dollar goes up. You wash, rinse, repeat until we either get a calamity or more likely more. The way it's worked really increasingly frequently is the US Treasury market gets dysfunctional. And there's an index we follow called the move index. It's the volatility of the Treasury markets created by a gentleman named Harley Bassman who pointed out once that index goes over 150, the Fed has lost control of the bond market. And October 3rd of this year, it was 141. All of a sudden, everyone and their mother on the Fed came out and said, well, maybe the bond market's done our job for us. Maybe we're done raising rates. They tried jawboning the dollar down. It's it's sort of worked. It's stopped the dollar going up like every day, but it's it hasn't really gotten the dollar down. But that's ultimately as it relates to this situation for the US that as long as the dollar's going up, given this massive offshore dollar denominated debt and this US massive dollar asset net position that foreigners have that they can sell to get dollars. Ultimately, it's sort of all fun and games until the Treasury market loses an eye. And once the Treasury market loses an eye, the volatility gets to a point where it is indicating that the Fed is losing control of the Treasury market. That has been the point over the last four years. Where the Fed steps in and says no mas and at that point, they kind of say, well, it's not QE, we're growing our balance sheet, but it's not QE. You know, Jackson Hole, a couple of guys gave a speech that said it was a presentation. It was, you know, it's possible the Fed might have to do non -monetary policy purchases of treasuries. But it's important that we sort of lay that out that, you know, it's it's almost like, you know, those are those are trading sardines, not eating sardines. It's it's, you know, they're printing money for for market functioning reasons, not for monetary purposing reasons. And the market's not going to care. But that's ultimately that do they want if they want the Treasury market to function really well, given these levels of debt, they need the dollar to be a certain level lower than it is. If they want the dollar here, then they're going to need to restrict how much they're trying to borrow or be willing to lose control of the bond market and the Treasury market specifically. I'd like to pretend like I just understood all of that. I would. I really want to say I pretend I can understood all of that. But but it sounds complicated for the layman like me, the everyday guy, I can't interpret what that means. So basically what it means is unless the Fed prints the money to buy the rate down, then the rates are going to go up on the government until the government until rates ostensibly extremes inform the means. In theory, we the bond market could run away and then all of a sudden. The in theory, you can get to one hundred percent of your revenues in interest expense, nobody, nobody for anything else, in which case either the Fed prints the money or we say, sorry, Ukraine, sorry, Israel, sorry. Everywhere we're bringing our boys home. And in fact, they have to book their own tickets because we don't have the money. And boomers, you're on your own. I know we promised you hip, sneeze, drugs, docs, all that, but sorry. All we have is money is to pay the interest. So this is an issue of supply and demand in bonds. And the big risk is they cannot afford the interest on the debt they have themselves, because what is it like 30? Where are we at now on the debt? Thirty three trillion themselves? Thirty four. High interest rate is so it becomes unaffordable themselves. It's the only way to see that is it's more QE. Yeah, that's exactly I mean, it's ultimately a supply demand problem of of debt versus not just existing debt, new debt, and then also against the supply of balance sheet. Right. There's only so much global private balance sheet that can that the capacity to buy the stuff and continue to hold the old stuff and the balance sheet capacity increases as the dollar goes down, it decreases as the dollar goes up. And ultimately, that balance sheet capacity has repeatedly needed to be supplemented by the Fed's balance sheet, which is infinite. They can buy as much as they want. They will never run out. The flip side is, is that has implications for the dollar because you're effectively printing money to finance deficits. But if they do do that, would it be a case if they're trying to bring down the interest rates and they're using QE to do this? Isn't this just the cycle we've been going through over and over again? This will lead to more inflation and more inflation will lead to them having to raise interest rates again. You know, isn't this just a cycle that gets worse every every time we go through another cycle of this? Yeah, oh, it's to me, it's been a very it's a very I think it is the most important macro cycle. It's a very obvious cycle. In 2014, global central banks stopped growing their holdings of FX reserves. And what that means in plain English is foreign central banks stopped adding to their supply of treasuries. So if if one of your biggest marginal buyers stops buying, somebody else needs to buy. And as that happens, a couple of things, a couple of things happen. Number one, the dollar starts going up and number two, rates start going up. And that can manifest given the omnipresence of the dollar and the centrality of the dollar to the system that shows up a lot at different places. But dollar up rates up. And we've seen this sort of at first we regulated the banks in 2014 into, you know, it's a little bit like the cracks in the dam. Right. So the first crack in the dam is like, OK, foreign central banks are buying the debt anymore. OK, what are we going to have by what we have regulate the banks into doing. So they do that. And that works for a while. And then because the supply of water, which is U .S. federal deficits, just keeps growing and growing and growing. Right. Inevitably, the pressure from the water growing, growing another crack, money market funds. We're going to regulate them into that was 2015, 2016. Again, both of these things crowd out global dollar markets. They send LIBOR short term rates up. Then you end up driving the dollar up to levels that start creating problems around the world. What do we do? We weaken the dollar in 2016. We weaken the dollar in 2017 with the Treasury general account. Basically, the Treasury's checking account starts to inject our liquidity to kind of manage this process. 2018, more cracks, especially now that the Fed's QTing in earnest. We start regulating Trump, regulated U .S. corporate pensions into buying more treasuries, gave him a tax break. OK, now we've got our thumb in the in the in the wall. So and, you know, 2019, we get another crack with repo rate spikes. OK, oh, now the Fed has to step in. Now the Fed's growing their balance sheet. But it's not QE. It's just fixing the fact that repo went from two to eight overnight because there's too much supply of water and not enough demand for the water that kind of holds. That breaks again in March 2020 at the depths of the covid crisis. The Fed does mega QE. They call it QE. OK, leads to inflation. 2022, we're going to start backing off, we're going to tighten. They get, you know, whatever they really start getting aggressive in March, April of really tightening. And by September, the UK gilt market blows up. Uh oh. They all get together in Washington in October of 2022. And they give Janet Yellen, what we used to call on the desk, a hey MF 'er conversation and Yellen comes back and runs on the TGA. The dollar goes down 15 percent, buys time. Another, you know, so it's just this you it is a constant cycle that started 10 years ago, but it keeps getting faster and faster. Right. That 2014, we regulate the banks. We worry about it again to like 2015, 16 with money markets. And even then, you know, you didn't have to worry about the the dollar was not too high in that case till 2016, 2017 and had to be addressed. Then it was already end of 2018. The Fed had to stop raising rates. Then it was September 2019. Then you kind of covid sort of screwed up the pacing of it in terms of of getting a clean apples to apples read. But since then, it's accelerated, it's September 2019, you had March 2020, you had September as soon as they started raising rates, March 20 or September 2022, March 2023, September 20 or October 2023. Now, it just it's getting faster and faster. And so, yeah, it is really it fundamentally the problem is very simple, way too much U .S. deficits, not enough global private sector balance sheet unless the Fed is in there helping to buy this stuff of printed money. That's at the end of the day, that's it. That's the problem. Is it essentially paying off your credit cards with a new credit card? Absolutely. While the rates going up on it, if the Fed does step in and start buying bonds in that way, does the U .S. just turn into Japan? Japan? No, we turned into Argentina. Japan, Japan is. Night and day different than the United States in this situation, right, so Japan is a net international investment position, remember, so I said we have foreigners own 65 percent, that 18 trillion, 65 percent of US GDP. So the U .S. net international investment position is negative. Sixty five percent of US GDP. Japan's is positive. Sixty percent. So for starters, when Japan runs into that problem, the first thing they can do is ring, ring, ring, hey, Washington, it's Japan. Those dollar assets we have to the tune of 60 percent of of our GDP, we want to start selling five percent a year because we need to finance our our fiscal deficit of three percent a year and do two percent of stimulus. And they can do that for a long, long time. That's number one. Number two, they run a current account surplus, right, their trade surplus. So they are running the surpluses on the current account versus us running deficits. We need number three. OK, the deficits we're running, the twin deficits historically have been foreign financed. They have financed internally. So you can run you if you're financing internally as Japan, deflation is an option you're when you're financing internally. Right. Because now you can pay your people, you know, zero percent interest on long term bonds because the cost of living is fear and deflation. Your cost of living is falling. Living standards are rising politically. That works. You cannot do that when you're in the United States. If you're financing externally, you start running deflation as a twin deficit. You get into a debt spiral. Your debt pile gets bigger and bigger and bigger nonlinearly every year. And pretty soon you run into debt credibility issues. You also, as Japan, do not have to provide most of your defense because your friends, the United States, have provided it for most of the last 80 years. We have to provide our own defense and that defense appears to be getting much more expensive by the minute. And then lastly, the United States is very heterogeneous in population. And Japan is very homogeneous in population. So it's a lot easier to sort of get people to sort of, you know, go along to get along and take one for the team. Culturally, there's much more of a willingness to take one for the team. I think their government has probably all in all done probably a better job of maintaining their credibility or maybe losing their credibility less fast than ours has with its domestic populace, maybe a better way of putting it. And so when you roll those things together, but especially the net international investment position, the current account, you know, Japan can say ring ring Washington send us our money. We need it to finance ourselves. And that throws that, you know, sell treasuries. We're going to bring back the dollars and defend the yen with those by selling dollars and buying yen. And they can do that for a while. They have 60 percent of GDP in that area. There is no there is no ring ring for the U .S. The ring ring. They don't call anybody overseas. The ring ring is, hey, Fed, start printing again. And when you say when they have to do that again, whenever that is, because they're going to have to do that again. Yeah, then that's why it gets much more into an Argentina like dynamic. And as I've said, Argentina with U .S. characteristics, not Japan is what is going to be the outcome. I was out in Argentina recently, was it three or four months ago, Danny? And I made a documentary while I was there about inflation. And one of the interesting things about being in Argentina is if you're certainly in the middle class, you have access to dollar products, whether it's cash dollars or digital dollars or crypto dollars or U .S. equities or U .S. bonds, you have access to dollars to mitigate against inflation. And most people just get rid of their peso and get some kind of dollar products as soon as possible. But if if you're an American, there is there is no equivalent. I mean, yes, there's gold and yes, there's Bitcoin. And, you know, we've seen this rise in both gold and Bitcoin recently. Perhaps that's it. I mean, is that it? The short answer is yes. You know, you can kind of see right who is who has won over the last 10, 20 years in the U .S., right? It's if you if you own a lot of stocks, you're doing great.
Crypto Banter
A highlight from The #1 Trading Strategy For Making Money In Crypto November 2023
"The number one trading meta in the market at the moment is conference pumps. Over the last two to three weeks, we've seen the strongest gainers in the altcoin market actually be coins with upcoming crypto conferences. So in today's video, I want to talk about this strategy, how you can apply it to your trading, what it tells us about the market, and also look at some of the upcoming conferences to see if there are any trade opportunities on the table. So in the last 30 days, Solana pumped over 104%, Nia pumped over 48 % in 18 days, XRP rose 26 % over the same period, and two of the biggest AI coins, FET and AGIX, also rose 83 % and 43 % over 18 days. For context, during this exact same period, the total three index, which is the total cryptocurrency market cap, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, rose a mere 15 % in comparison. So it's clear right now that the market dynamics have shifted because before the anticipation of good news leading into a conference or leading into an announcement wasn't really garnering much hype in terms of price action. But now with market dynamics starting to shift, retail sentiment slightly increasing after the latest Bitcoin pump that we've gotten, the market is now more susceptible to these pre -conference and these pre -announcement pumps, which makes the whole buy the rumor, sell the news trade more applicable to trading because before the market wasn't really responding. So let's go through some of the major conferences now, look at what the tokens are doing, and also look at what happened in the last time they had a conference pump. The first one is Solana, the red lines exhibit the breakpoint conferences in Lisbon, this year it was in Amsterdam. And you can see here that every Solana breakpoint conference, Sol pumps aggressively into the conference and then has a sell off. It happened in 2021, it happened again, we had a 40 % pump in October 2022, then the FTX saga happened and it crashed. And now we've had a pump again, we're starting to get that rejection. You see that wick here on the top of the candle right into the conference towards the end of the conference. Will this be another buy the rumor, sell the news event? Well, history tends to indicate that that is the case for Solana. The only caveat that I'm going to throw into the mix here is that the FTX saga was basically unprecedented. So that was a very rare black swan event for the market, which impacted Solana's price. And then also the Solana breakpoint conference in November 2021, corresponded with the overall market top, obviously the rate hike fear started to climb back into the market, Bitcoin started to reverse, sentiment from a macro perspective started to shift and the entire market sold off. So it wasn't a Solana specific buy the rumor, sell the news. So there were two macro events, which maybe impeded our ability to read the price action accurately here. But one thing is for sure, there has been a sell off into the event. So that's one thing. Let's look at some of the other events though. Nia protocol, pretty much the exact same thing happened into Niacon in September 2022. We saw Nia pump and then dump aggressively post conference. If we see what total three was doing during this time, the market was relatively sideways. It did have that major drop in November, but as you can see, the Nia drop happened even sooner. So the fact that the market didn't take a huge sell off during the Nia conference, sell off indicates that this was a buy the rumor, sell the news event. And then it went on to make lower lows. You can see now into the next conference, which is exhibited by this second red vertical line here, we are seeing strong price movement from Nia pumping over 48 % in 18 days. So these coins are now starting to be responsive to these conferences, but historically it's been buy the rumor, sell the news. But let's go into another one. Let's look at the XRP conference. They didn't have a swell conference last year, but it is pumping in the lead up to the conference once again. XRP actually looks really good. It is making higher lows on the weekly timeframe here, which from a macro perspective is quite good. You can see FET and AGIX also moving aggressively into the AI conference season. I think the one that has garnered the most attention is the inaugural open AI developer conference on the six, lots of announcements being teased there. I don't necessarily think there's going to be a FET or AGIX announcement, but nonetheless, the AI narrative is running into the hype of that conference. So what can we kind of look at from this data? Well, what we can see is that in the past, buy the rumor, sell the news events have definitely been prevalent for conference pumps. So you do have to be careful in terms of longing into the conference, like on the actual day of the conference. However, there is definitely a trading opportunity leading into conferences. In fact, there is a trading opportunity leading into a lot of major conferences. Timing it can be tricky because the further out the conference is from the time you're positioning yourself, yes, you are front running the narrative, so you're getting in early. That can be an edge, but the downside is market conditions can change in the meantime. So let's say the market takes a huge sell off in the interim, even though you get a conference pump that may erode most of your gains. So there is a risk positioning yourself super far out for conferences, but what we can observe with conference pumps is that they tend to gain steam roughly 18 to 25 days pre -conference. So this is typically your best time to position yourself in the shakeouts in the month prior to the conference. You can see this happen with Solana in the lead up to Amsterdam this year. You can see it happen with Nia with that shakeout a few weeks before the conference in August 2022. So the best trading opportunities are actually usually a few weeks out because then you're not holding onto your bags for let's say an entire month and exposing yourself to general market downside if there is downside. Instead maybe you miss out on a little bit of potential gains, but you're getting in during a time period which is still early enough before the conference that traders don't pile into the trade. I do think conference trades though only really work when the market is feeling okay towards altcoins. In complete bear markets like we've seen over the past year or so, the market has been unresponsive to conference or announcement pumps. So this is definitely a trading strategy that you can use. And another thing you can do when you are taking entries for these sort of trades, obviously you want to be getting in during the pre -conference shakeouts if there are any. When you're getting your entry you can actually make sure that you're buying in during a time where that token has momentum. For example if you were buying into Solana pre -conference you could search up Solana on Kaiba AI and you could get a metric which is its Kaiba score to dictate whether momentum is starting to go from bearish to bullish territory or bullish to bearish territory which gives you an indicator as to whether you're catching the momentum of the market. So Kaiba AI is a really good tool because it's going to give you on -chain analytics which show you the amount of trades, type of trades that are happening, whether you're seeing net flow onto exchanges or back onto DEXs and I think this is a really important thing to keep your eye on because this can help you get better entries and the Kaiba score aggregates a lot of that data to give you an indicator as to what the momentum of a token is at any given moment and you don't only need to do this on a token like Sol, you can do this for any token which is across any of the EVM networks. Although Sol technically isn't an EVM token, it's natural to the Solana blockchain, it is wormholed onto other chains like the BNB chain. So maybe the on -chain analytics aren't as accurate but a lot of people still do trade Solana on wormhole. You can see here just the amount of trading volume we can see, 523 total trade spot Solana trades on the BNB chain. So there's a link to Kaiba AI in the description below. If you do want to sign up and get market alpha before the rest of the market, CryptoBanta subscribers do get early access to Kaiba AI versus the normal waiting list that you'll go into if you weren't, clicking through the link in the description which can run you a few weeks. So now we've looked at some of the biggest coins that are pumping into the conferences and their historic data but now I want to look at the lesser known ones because buying into a Solana conference hype or an XRP conference hype or NIA or ADA conference hype, it's very different from trading some of the smaller coins. Typically the lesser known coins, they won't pump as aggressively into the conference but if there is any announcement or hype around the time of the conference, there can be good trading opportunities. So I'll name a few that have conferences over the next few days that I think you should keep your eye on in case there are any big announcements. Remember, the market is now more responsive to news. You've got Apecoin being one with Apefest, by the way, token doesn't look that strong TA wise but this is definitely something to keep your eye on, who knows, they might pull a rabbit out of a hat. You've got Helium Network as well. This conference is in another five days so there is more time for a trade here on HNT so this is what I would look at into this conference. You've got YGG which is nice because it overlaps with the gaming industry, this is a little bit further out so this is in that window that I discussed before about trading into pre -conference hype and YGG also overlaps with gaming which has been one of the hotter narratives over the past couple of weeks. This is actually one that I might look to trade leading into the conference as well as Helium which I'm keeping my eye on and Apecoin for me is only if there's really any major announcements in the conference, it's not a very hyped coin. So as I said, the lesser known coins typically, they might not outperform as well into the major news. Now I have another strategy for you that you can implement which is actually just keeping track of your own calendar. So you can really front run the narratives by like months or weeks, a lot of the time the conferences aren't necessarily announced like 6 months to 12 months ahead but at least a few months ahead, you can get an idea of what conferences are at what times and this can actually help you start to pre -empt the rest of the market. So if you do have a bit of patience and you're willing to market out in your calendar, these can be great trades. Definitely, definitely great trades. I know a lot of traders who actually get their own edge through a lot of these conference slash announcement trades. So there's a website called coinmarketcal .com. What you can do is you can use the filters here to sort by conference or other announcements. You can also sort by date and what you can do is you can scroll through and see what upcoming conferences there are. You can see there's a few general events, there's a few specific events. You can go further down the list and get dates further in the future. You can also set your own dates and this will allow you to see what conferences there are. You can see here Neocon, then we've got Helium House, then Ripple. These are some of the more hyped ones like Neocon and Ripple price -wise but then as we go further forward, you have Avalanche happening in two weeks time. That might be one to keep an eye on. You've got a few other ones as well to keep your eye on and also broader crypto conferences which may have announcements. Always good to look at these too and look at who the speakers are so you can start taking your destiny in your own hands and preempting for some of these conferences. A lot of them aren't listed until closer to the conference but we know the sweet spot pre -conference is usually around a month out to start looking at positioning yourself due to the market conditions effect that I mentioned earlier so that's really fine anyway. Three to four weeks out I think is a decent trade. Anything longer than that and you're kind of holding on to hope a little bit and if you're in a leverage position, you might be paying crazy funding to hold your position in the meantime so that is also something to note. I want to give a shout out to today's sponsor SmartX who are offering some of the best APRs in crypto for stakers so if you are holding any Arbitrum, USDC, Bitcoin and you would like to stake it, SmartX has a solution which minimizes the impact of impermanent loss which is an awesome feature which I think makes LPs feel a lot more comfortable staking. You can earn some pretty insane yields between as you can see here 29 % all the way up to 51 % across a variety of chains. Some chains have higher APRs depending on the pool and also different assets on BNB you can stake BNB, on Polygon you can stake MATIC so I would highly recommend checking out the SmartX Farms if you would like to earn some passive income and they also just reached $100 million worth of on -chain volume. They recently partnered with 1inch to offer their liquidity across a variety of other service providers which is a massive milestone for the ecosystem as well so there's a link in the description to SmartX if you want to check them out and earn some passive income. I hope you enjoyed today's video and learned something about trading conferences. Let me know in the comments below which altcoins you're trading and if there are any conferences you're looking forward to from a trading perspective. It is really the meta in the market at the moment and not just conferences by the way but announcements, good news, this kind of thing, this preemptive positioning ahead of events I mean that's really what the entire BitcoinSpot ETF trade is, is super effective in this market environment so definitely something for traders to take out of today's video. I'll see you in the next one. Peace out.
Simply Bitcoin
A highlight from Sam Bankman-Fried Found Guilty on All 7 Counts | EP 860
"You It's all going to zero against Bitcoin. It's going up forever Against Bitcoin you're against freedom Yo, good morning everybody Welcome to simply Bitcoin is Friday, November 3rd in the year 2023 So you can tell from the title crazy crazy stuff happening everywhere today on the Twitter verse of course We will be covering Sam Beckman freed found guilty on all seven counts and of course you guys should know if you're if you're Usually talk about all corners again. It is still the very beginning of the YouTube show So we will use the nomenclature all corners for the time being because it waters down our message We don't ever really want to talk about all coins because we believe it is Bitcoin not all coins there is Bitcoin and then there's everything else and The point of this show is to try to separate Bitcoin from everything else But for better or worse guys, the average person has had SPF on their radar I even was telling rustin yesterday one of my friends. I haven't talked to him in a while. He Was asking me what I'm doing lately. I told him simply Bitcoin and His follow -up question was what is your thoughts on this SPF guy and I'm like, oh my goodness. Here we go My parents have been talking about him. Yeah, all the public media has been talking about him and Finally I guess justice may have caught up with him welcome to law SPF and You know, you can't just commit fraud out there in the name of all coins and and doing good by the people You know, it is what it is There are laws in this country and it seems that SPF has been found guilty on all seven counts We will be talking about that. We got a bunch of clips We will be kind of trolling it out a little bit as well Rustin's gonna give you guys all of the signal on that one in the new segment and in the numbers We were talking about it yesterday. We are seeing At the current stage of the Bitcoin bull market, maybe the end of the crab market the very end tail end of a bear market We're gonna cover for you guys where we are in the cycle and we got a solid clip from Michael sailor at his microstrategy earnings call Basically saying what we've been saying all year long here that people are looking for alternatives. We are seeing public consciousness raised Public attention raised in regards to Bitcoin and what that means moving forward So we'll be talking about that in the numbers and the culture I mentioned yesterday I saw this thread and I really enjoyed it and it was on black rock and Bitcoin So I'm gonna cover that I know we all have the view of F black rock Don't really like black rock obviously for obvious reasons, but I think They may be incentivized to play along with the rules I'm even gonna bring up the white paper and the incentives portion of the white paper which maybe Satoshi was right all along and this is why we are doing what we're doing because if black rock can take down Bitcoin Then what are we really doing here? And then actually actually before I move on I'm not sure if you guys saw this morning, but shouts out to our brothers over at Bitcoin magazine apparently the Federal Reserve is suing them for Basically making a parody t -shirt of the Fed now system and They are saying that they are infringing on their copyright. Absolutely incredible We do not want to associate ourselves with Fed now system and the boys over at Bitcoin magazine, I guess are over the target This is more Credence to the idea of then they fight you stage Absolutely incredible stuff. We will get into that a little bit at towards the end of the news segment, but welcome to simply Bitcoin We are your number one source for the peaceful back Bitcoin revolution We cover breaking news culture and of course mimetic warfare We bring on big corners from all around the world and the biggest names to the everyday big corner We got them all and we will be your guide through Separation of money and state of course. I'm not alone. I got my boy rust in here And I already know that we're gonna get a little crazy. This is the Friday show things should get a little Light -hearted. I I saw a little bit of what rustin has in store for you guys and just gonna forewarn you We will be giving you the signal but we are gonna troll it out a little bit. I'm gonna be honest Well, we're gonna work. Oh, yeah Today we're gonna Oh, I'm stoked up. I'm so stoked out there. You have to happy to be here We get a lot of good news, apparently maybe the system kind of works but not really So we'll dive into that and see what was left out of the trial and the charges. It's very interesting How the media treated this guy leading up to it all throughout the whole thing. They love this guy. He came out of nowhere He looked like he lived under an overpass and and then he was there darling I we got a very good clip of what what's his name? Oh leery what stop listening to these people? They are absolute morons and I think we're coming to a conclusion. Maybe the CDC will pick this up but maybe there may be a connection between degenerative mental illness and Prolonged use of shit coins. So we're gonna dive into that and see if we can get to Bottom of it and also we are way over the target Bitcoin news in the Fed now, we got some good nuggets for that, too Love to see it guys as we always say, you know, the coin is peaceful revolution and memes are artillery ridicule is a powerful tool in our toolbox and hey guys, it is working and Actually before we go in there It just it's absolutely incredible that people at the Federal Reserve Are are digesting Bitcoin content like we're winning absolutely winning so hard. It's incredible But I want to know how many of them have one of those shirts Actually talking with my boy Joe did not many have those shirts at all so Streisand effect in real time. We'll see. We'll see. Anyways guys. We got a lot to talk about. Let's get into this The Bitcoin numbers is your Bitcoin in cold storage really secure is your seed phrase Really secure stamp seeds do -it -yourself kit has everything you need to hammer your seed words into commercial grade Titanium plates instead of just writing them on paper Don't store your generational wealth on paper papers prone to water damage fire damage You want to put your generational wealth on one of the strongest metals on planet earth? titanium your words are actually stamped into this metal plate with this hammer and these letter stamps and once your words are in They aren't going anywhere. No risk of the plate breaking apart and pieces falling everywhere Titanium stamp seeds will survive nearly triple the heat produced by a house fire They're also crush proof waterproof non -corrosive and time proof all things that paper is not allowing you to huddle your Bitcoin with peace of Mind for the long haul stamp your seed on stamp seed Alright guys stand the QR code. Make sure your seed phrase is backed up It's not on a piece of paper in your sock drawer Get yourself a stamp seed kit and also actually actually before I forget guys we are so close to hitting our 21k subscriber a Threshold on YouTube. We will be doing a giveaway. I'm guessing probably live on Monday and the mega prize is a stamp seed Full kit we might even throw in a shirt or a hoodie in there. I don't know where work We'll talk about it over the weekend. But one of you guys in the chat that's been hanging out with us all year I wrote my list down you will be getting a stamp seed kit but for everyone else make sure you scan the QR code and you secure your seed phrase in something that will last the test of time anyways, let's get into the numbers guys because Got a lot of talk about anyways My favorite number the block height tick tock next block The only date that matters is the block height and we are currently at eight hundred and fifteen thousand one hundred and thirty -eight The current Bitcoin price is thirty four thousand seven hundred and thirty and actually little side tangent Rustin we got rug pulled yesterday with our clickbait title. Apparently the Bitcoin price dumped on us when we were like Yeah, Bitcoin totally trolled us yesterday. That is a hundred percent pain max pain in regard to the price Anyways, the current Moscow time aka what your Fiat dollars worth aka how much Bitcoin you can buy for a single dollar It's currently at two thousand eight hundred and seventy nine cents per dollar or for you bit maxis out there 287 bits the total percentage of Bitcoin that will ever be issued I repeat ever be issued until the end of time is currently at ninety three point zero one percent the market cap of Bitcoin in fiat terms is at 678 point four billion the realized monetary inflation taking fiat currencies to school is at one point seven four percent and that Will get cut in half it'll go down It's gonna go down in April roughly April the Bitcoin verse gold market cap. Is that five point eleven percent? Barely at five percent of the gold market cap and that is ten trillion dollars guys And you guys are you guys are bearish out there couldn't be me can't relate Anyways, the total public lightning capacity is at five thousand three hundred and six point nine nine BTC The hash rate the last 90 days is at four hundred and fifteen point four exit hatches the pending fees Wow Okay, yesterday was at one point nine today is at three point nine Oh for Bitcoin currently sitting in the mempool that Clark Moody dashboard is reading and then of course blocks to having We're at twenty four thousand eight hundred and sixty two and as of today the having estimate is the mean number April 20th 2024 let's let's hope we mean that into reality anyways guys As we were telling you yesterday We've been covering it constantly on this show the theme of You know yesterday we talked about the flight to quality. We talked about the bond market. We talked about inflation numbers we've talked about corporate press covering Bitcoin in favorable light or rather even in unfavorable light, but it does seem like we are crossing the Rubicon into mainstream consciousness and moving forward if you are in Financial markets financial media you will have to talk about Bitcoin and I say it all the time, you know Look, we're just youtubers. We're just Bitcoiners. We're just everyday Bitcoiners that happen to make a show We just cover what's going on in the world. So We realize that maybe what we say about Bitcoin doesn't hit as hard as when a billionaire rocket scientist Talks about the same things we're talking about or rather maybe we need to wear suits So we seem like we're more authority figures or maybe one day we'll be on the television and then now that will give us some Sense of legitimacy. But anyways, this is another simply Bitcoin. I told you so moment and Sailor is just saying everything we've been saying forever on the show Anyways, you can see this tweet by a swan it goes Michael sailors bullish mainstream awareness seems to be reaching new heights of Bitcoin And this is from today's micro strategy earnings call. So we got a short clip We'll talk about it and then we will move on into the news, but check this out He's saying what we say all the time guys. Love to see it. We're winning constantly winning. So Tune in strap up. It's gonna be a great bull run mainstream awareness Seems to be reaching new heights for Bitcoin we have We have the likes of Larry Fink Referring to it as a flight quality we have Druckenmiller noting that it's a legitimate asset embraced by an entire generation and Lamenting that he doesn't own more of it or own it We have Muhammad al -aryan on television noting that Bitcoin is being viewed now as a safe haven asset We have a lot of coverage of Bitcoin in television On television networks news networks and also through mainstream media that should continue to grow as that coverage increases that combined with increasing availability of Wall Street analyst coverage and new voices emerging in the community like like fidelity with their analysis of Bitcoin all of those new voices and new interest is Driving of education a new generation of investors I think we can expect more of that during the coming 12 months and All of these things together just create a virtual cycle and as they drive Bitcoin awareness they should drive Bitcoin investment and that should drive more news and that should drive more awareness and that should catalyze more and more firms to take an interest in supporting Bitcoin or investing in Bitcoin and Absolutely love to hear it and and remember guys I'm I just thought of this as we were live because I've been using this chart a lot again I'm over here at nakamoto Institute org chefs at the pierre Richard.
Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
A highlight from 1450: I Expect Bitcoin ETF Approval By End of Month
"In today's show, I'll be breaking down the latest Bitcoin technical analysis. Also, Sam Bankman freed. He is found guilty on all seven charges in the FTX fraud trial. Quoting Max Kaiser, tough talk when it comes to the minor league drug Adderall ish corner like SPF, but where's all the bravado when Jamie Diamond gets caught manipulating markets and defrauding the public again or the next crooked Warren Buffett bailout? He makes great point. Also in today's show, Bitcoin to the moon. Send it. I'm going to be sharing with you the top five Bitcoin price predictions for twenty twenty four and beyond. That's what's up. Also, the latest from Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, also a twenty seven hundred percent Bitcoin price explosion is incoming courtesy of one catalyst, according to the BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes. We'll also be talking about breaking news. The Valkyrie CIO expects the spot Bitcoin ETF approval before the end of the month. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good, crypto fam? This is first and foremost, a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at CryptoNewsAlerts .net. Again, that's Crypto News Alerts dot net. Welcome, everyone. Today is podcast episode number fourteen hundred and fifty. Can you believe it? I'm your host, JV, and today is November 3rd. Welcome to Moonvember of twenty twenty three. Let's kick off today's show with our market watch as we do each and every day. We got Bitcoin up about a quarter percent, hovering just under thirty five thousand. We have Ether up point three percent trading at eighteen hundred dollars. Cardano, one of the top gainers, up five and a half percent and also XRP barely in the green. And if we are in doubt, they say you need to zoom out. Let's look at the one month. Wow, that's much more sexier, isn't it? Now we have Bitcoin up twenty seven percent for the month. We got ETH up about 10 percent. Solana is up almost 70 percent. Cardano up twenty three percent. XRP up fourteen percent. BNB up seven percent. Personally, I love it when everything in crypto is a winner. It don't get no sexier than that. And look at Chainlink up fifty two percent for the month. Good lord. And check it out. Coin market cap percent in just under one point three trillion with about forty five billion in volume in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin dominance pulled back a little bit, currently at fifty two point seven percent, and the ether dominance in the 16 percentage range for the first time I have ever seen that I could recall. It's currently at sixteen point nine percent as Bitcoin dominance continues to outpace the rest of the market, especially Ethereum. And checking out the top one hundred crypto gainers of the past twenty four hours for chain up fourteen and a half percent trading at three dollars and twenty cent and Oasis Network up twelve percent trading at six point two cents, followed by the trust wallet token up almost twelve percent trading at a dollar twenty three and checking out crypto bubbles so we can see the top gainers for the past week. Massive shout out to Emilio. I appreciate the super chat. Fam, you're way too kind. Much love, much respect. He just said you are amazing. Nah, I think you're amazing. And I appreciate the orange so we can orange pill more mofos and help change the world. Let's freaking go. Much love, fam. But as we can see on the crypto bubbles on your screen, we got a lot of gainers overall. That means the market cap is pumping and a rising tide rises all ships and checking out the crypto greed and fear index. We're currently rated a sixty five in greed. Yesterday was a seventy two last week, a seventy and last month a forty nine, which is neutral. So there you have it, my fam. What's your thoughts on the current Bitcoin price action? Let me know. Are you pumped up for Moomvember? I sure as hell am. Let's dive into our Bitcoin technical analysis for the day. Check out the charts with a Bitcoin price action is likely to go next. Bitcoin broke below thirty five G's baby after the November 2nd Wall Street open, as analysis warned of overheated derivatives. As you know, derivatives are financial tools of financial destruction. Yeah, for real. Now Bitcoin under does the post fed gains. We're currently tinkering just under that thirty five thousand, which is now back at a resistance. The highs had come on the back of the encouraging language from Jay Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, who in a speech suggested the interest rate hikes might soon end. Now, the Fed opted not to change the rates at the latest meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee, which was November 1st quoting their press release. Recent indicators suggest the economic activity expanded at a strong pace. In the third quarter, job gains have moderated since earlier in the year, but remain strong and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated and accompanying press release stated. They also shared here that the U .S. banking system is sound and resilient. Sure it is. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects remain uncertain. The committee remains highly attentive to inflation risk. We all know they're full of ish, right, to say the least. And quoting crypto analyst, Bitcoin breaks out, reaches a new yearly high, which is currently just shy of 36 G's. Now, not a massive breakout, but as long as we say above 34 .8, which we currently are, the next target is 36 .5 to 37 ,000. And the altcoins will follow after, which is typically what seems to go down. Now, down over a thousand from its highs. Bitcoin was worrying some with derivative markets, particularly in the focus, quoting Charles Edwards at Capriole Investments. All Bitcoin derivatives markets are overheated at present. This captures the perps, futures and options. Stay safe out there. And also, we have reacting popular trader school agreed that arguing it was now the spot market to charge of saving the Bitcoin price strength, as he shares here, something to be aware of when sizing up positions currently, when derivatives get hot. This puts increasing focus on spot market to support the current prices and the trend. That's right. In his own analysis, we also had material indicators concluding caution should be applied to the current Bitcoin trading environment, meaning expect more volatility ahead and uploading the snapshot of liquidity on the Bitcoin order book for the largest global exchange, Binance. It warned support levels were apt to disappear quickly. A form of a rug pull. So you have been warned. Newcomer support gaining liquidity at this time lay at both 34 and 33 .5. So there you have it, fam. Again, how many of you are currently bullish on that? King crypto. And with that being shared, now let's discuss our next story of the day. The latest from Michael Saylor. He was recently interviewed on the news and shared some very positive sentiment in the Bitcoin market. Also, he has been a dollar cost averaging and stacking stats. This week, the Bitcoin price came within a hair of thirty six. I think we hit like thirty five nine ninety during our watch party before abruptly reversing and correcting to thirty four to fifty. But after nearly a 30 percent run over the past month, it is natural for the price to cool off as some traders take profit and market participants evaluate whether or not the catalyst for the rally remain valid. Now, despite the intraday price action, which saw almost five percent drawdown, a number of analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin naturally, and some expect another gamma squeeze. If the Bitcoin price manages to push through the thirty six three hundred level, we're only like four hundred dollars off of that right now. Just FYI, permables like MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor appear unbothered by the whipsaw price action. And on November 1st, MicroStrategy announced the October purchase of one hundred and fifty five more Bitcoin for five point three million. As the outlines here in October, MicroStrategy acquired additional one hundred and fifty five BTC for five point three million bucks, now holding one hundred and fifty eight thousand four hundred BTC like, whoa, and what's the most mind boggling? Saylor didn't even get into Bitcoin until twenty twenty. So it goes to show you someone can come here in twenty twenty three and become an even bigger whale than Michael Saylor. In fact, the likes of the Black Rocks of the world put Michael Saylor to shame because we're talking about mega mega mega whales on a massive scale. And when asked about the upcoming Bitcoin having during an interview on Squawk Box, here's what he had to share. Most of the natural sellers of Bitcoin in the market right now are Bitcoin miners and they have to sell to cover their electricity bills and capital costs and retire their debt. That's about a billion dollars per month worth of selling into the market. The protocol forces that to be cut in half as of next April or late April. And he also says, so you're going to see twelve billion bucks of natural selling per year converted to six billion of natural selling a year and at the same time as things like the spot ETFs increase the demand for Bitcoin. So that's why all of us are fairly bullish over the next 12 months. How many of you are bullish? Let me know. Demand is going to increase and supply is going to contract. And this is fairly unprecedented in the history of Wall Street. That's what's up now is a pretty ideal entry point for Bitcoin, according to Saylor. Also, he was recently interviewed and I actually transcribed this video clip when he was speaking on Squawk on the street. And I feel this is very relevant. Here's what Saylor says for the industry to move to the next level. We need to migrate to adult supervision. We're going to need the big banks to become the crypto custodians. We're going to need Wall Street to take a role and we need to rationalize away from the one hundred thousand crypto tokens. You know, the yo yo coins that people are manipulating to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is an asset without an issuer. It is the one universally recognized protocol that is a commodity in the space. And so when banks on Wall Street and responsible custodians are managing Bitcoin and the industry takes its eyes away from all the shiny little tokens that have distracted and demolish shareholder value, I think the industry moves to the next level and we 10x from here. Now, what's another 10x from the current price action we're talking about roughly? What is that? Three hundred and fifty thousand dollars per BTC. Send it and let's frickin go. Also quoting him here, I think the liabilities or the early crypto cowboys, the crypto tokens, which are unregistered securities, the unreliable crypto custodians for the industry to move to the next level. We're going to need to migrate to adult super vision. And I shared with you the rest of that quote. So there you have it. Let me know if you agree or disagree with the one and only giga Chad Michael Saylor. Next story of the day. This is breaking news. SBF has been found guilty in all seven fraudulent charges. Yeah, this is wild. Yeah, here we go. I'm going to read all this to you. Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman Freed was found guilty of all seven charges by a jury in his criminal trial in New York after about four hours of deliberations, meaning it didn't take long. Bankman Freed was found guilty of two counts of wire fraud, two counts of wire fraud conspiracy, one count of securities fraud, one count of commodities fraud conspiracy and one count of money laundering conspiracy. Good Lord. That's a lot of charges and it's just getting started. He'll be back in court in March to continue with some more charges to probably get guilty of. We'll return to the court for sentences by New York District Judge Lewis Kaplan March 28th. So that's the date is right before the having. Government prosecutors will recommend a sentence, but Judge Kaplan will have the final say. Now, Bankman Freed's crimes each carry a maximum sentence of between five and 20 years in prison with the wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy and money laundering conspiracy carrying a maximum of 20 years sentence in a press conference outside the court, the New York Southern District U .S. Attorney Damian Williams called Bankman Freed's crimes a multibillion dollar scheme designed to make him the king of crypto, right? The Michael Jordan of crypto, the Warren Buffett of crypto and of one the biggest financial frauds in American history, Bankman Freed's attorney Mark Cohen said in a statement, we respect the jury's decision, but we are very disappointed with the result. Naturally, Mr. Bankman Freed maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him. Anyone here in the chat. We have over 200 people in the live. Anyone believe he is innocent? I am just curious if there's any outliers out there. Anyways, other key FTF execs, including former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison, FTX co -founder Gary Wang and former engineering head Nishad Singh have all pleaded guilty to various charges and work with the government to testify against Bankman Freed in the five week trial. Now, Bankman Freed had pleaded not guilty to all the charges. And during his trial, he took the stand to maintain his innocence against the best wishes of his lawyers who told him to shut the what up, just saying, and marking the FTX November 2022 collapse as a number of big mistakes I made. He denied any wrongdoing in the FTX relationship with Alameda, attempting to distance himself from key decisions, which we all know is not true, according to the testimonies of their execs, Bankman Freed pinned the blame on Gary Wang for creating a function that allowed Alameda to trade funds on FTX that it didn't have and claimed he wasn't entirely sure what happened. Oh, I don't know what happened with Alameda's line of credit, which ballooned to billions in the collapsing crypto market of 2022. In his testimony, he also blamed Caroline Ellison for not focusing on risk management. How are you going to blame your ex? That's just why. Anyways, he didn't believe he defrauded FTX customers by taking over eight billion worth of their funds. Instead, he framed it as Alameda just borrowing from the exchange. Yeah, borrowing from investors without their permission is called stealing. I just wanted to point that one out. Now, Max Kaiser responded to this attorney who spoke out and he said, this is tough talk when it comes to the minor league, the drug Adderall ish coiner like SPF, but where's all the bravado when Jamie, the tapeworm diamond, the best the CEO, JP Morgan Chase, gets caught manipulating markets and defrauding the public again or the next crooked Warren Buffett bailout? You talk a good game, but you're no different than SPF. And I think Max makes some excellent points. The big dogs get away with this all the time, of course, but clearly there's levels to this ish, if you know what I mean. Now, what are your thoughts surrounding this case? How do you think this will likely continue to play out in March as they continue with the court trial facing more charges he's up against? Let me know, fam. I appreciate that. I got some very bullish predictions to share with you. In fact, I'm going to be sharing with you the top five Bitcoin price predictions for twenty, twenty four and beyond. Bitcoin continues to circle its highest levels in 18 months. Again, the annual high for the year is currently almost thirty six thousand dollars, but let's dive right into the predictions. First and foremost, Matrix Port predicts forty five thousand within two months. So two months from November would mean January. I could definitely see Bitcoin hitting forty, fifty thousand easy peasy before the halving. But let me know your thoughts. Now, that prediction came from Matrix Port, the crypto trading firm founded by Jihan Wu, himself a founder, a Bitcoin mining giant Bitmain in a blog post in late October. Matrix Port doubled down on a forty five thousand year end price targets. That's the Christmas target. Let's go, Santa, which is initially revealed in January. It was based on a handful of in -house models with Matrix Port also successfully predicting Bitcoin's October gains. Quitting them here, Bitcoin is breaking above the July thirty one five resistance showing that forty five is achievable by the year's end. And again, I think that's a very doable target. But let me know your thoughts. The next prediction comes from Bitcoin. They say new all time high pre halving. I also agree with that, especially if we get the ETF approval. I would anticipate above and beyond sixty nine thousand before the April twenty twenty four halving, but that's only if you know what I mean. We'll see how this plays out. The halving is a watershed moment. We all know the blocks of subsidies get cut in half for the miners in September. Bitcoin stated Bitcoin would surpass its current sixty nine thousand peak before April of twenty twenty four. Now they shared here, no, Bitcoin is not going to top before the halving. Yes, it's going to reach a new all time high before the halving. No, Bitcoin is not going to one hundred and sixty G's because the magnitude of every pullback is large. This means it'll peak after the halving in twenty twenty four. And yes, the target price is around two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. I love that. That's right in alignment with Max Keiser's short term target of two hundred and twenty thousand. Now, they also shared this chart. Both the all time high and the post halving two hundred and fifty thousand target came courtesy of the Elliott Wave theory charting, which we cover commonly here in the show with Bitcoin mimicking the behavior from the previous cycles. And you can see their estimation of how the Bitcoin price is likely to rise is coming directly from Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin did, however, make room for a total of four pullbacks. As outlined in this chart, you can see one, two, three, four. Before we hit the peak at five, quoting them here, there will be one pullback before breaking to a new all time high, followed by another pullback at around one hundred and twenty five thousand. Additionally, there will be two more pullbacks after the halving, which are not demonstrated here. Now for the next one, three Bitcoin price models, one hundred and thirty thousand dollar target zone. That's right. Let's freaking go. Quoting CryptoCon here, I'm prepared for the lower prices, but the stars are aligning at one hundred and thirty for the Bitcoin this cycle. And the concept also hinges on the halving events and the next peak should come around four years after the sixty nine thousand dollar move in November of twenty twenty one. We all know everything is cyclical and Bitcoin every four years driven by the halving. Now the one million dollar question. How about a one million dollar Bitcoin price target leads us to Kathy Wood of ARK Invest, the CEO and chief investment officer, has joined former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes in doubling down on her seven figure price prediction when this could happen, understandably up for debate. But changing macroeconomic tides have emboldened what remains a daring Bitcoin price prediction. In October, Hayes maintained that the path to a one million dollar coin was in full effect thanks to the macro reality. Now quoting BlockWorks on the Margin podcast right here, this was shared actually on an interview. If people lose faith in the bond market and this fiat artificial construction we have created over the past 80 to 100 years, this global economy and how it has been structured, if we lose confidence in that, then the amount of money that's going to be looking for an alternative is going to be something that we have never seen before. He shared over in an interview and speaking of Kathy Wood, she was just on Bloomberg and here's what she shared when she was asked, what's a better hedge against inflation? Is it Bitcoin or is it gold? And very boldly she said, Bitcoin hands down, hands down is a hedge against both inflation and deflation. Yes, so is gold, but Bitcoin is digital. And if you look at the incremental demand we are going to see, but gold already has its demand. You know, it happened already, right? Bitcoin is new and institutions are barely involved in the young people would much rather prefer to hold Bitcoin than hold gold preach. So it's interesting that both gold and Bitcoin are hedges against deflation, but Bitcoin has been doing better recently preach and Bitcoin naturally will consider outpacing gold. I think it was Max Kaiser who said for every dollar, the Bitcoin price action increases. I'm sorry for every dollar, the gold price increases expect Bitcoin to go up by over $20 meaning it will continue to outpace gold by a factor of 20. Let me know if you agree or disagree fam. And we spoke about Kathy Wood and her a $1 million price prediction. In fact, she even has a bullish case scenario by the year 2030 of Bitcoin hitting $1 .48 million. Keep that in mind. But now let's discuss Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX founder predicting Bitcoin price to rally 2700 % taken us to $1 million per coin. And then we'll dive into the latest updates with the likelihood of the spot Bitcoin ETF being approved this month in November. According to the major asset manager, here we go. BitMEX co -founder Arthur Hayes is doubling down on a prediction. The Bitcoin is destined to reach the seven figure price. Hayes says that a monetary policy tool known as the yield curve control will act as the catalyst for Bitcoin to reach that 1 million Mark, a gain of around 2 ,700 % from the current level. Send it, let's go. Central banks use the yield curve control to influence the longterm interest rate level by buying longterm bonds as much as possible to prevent the rate from rising above the intended target. And according to Hayes, the entire U S government is enabling a loose monetary policy environment. Even as the fed continues tightening. Now the BitMEX founder first predicted seven figure Bitcoin earlier this year in March in that essay, which I covered here on the show. And at the time, he argued that China's loosening of his monetary policy would trigger Bitcoin to explode to $1 million per coin. Hayes also says the decision by the fed mid this week, uh, pause the rate hike interest rate suggests it's time to pump it up, pump, pump it up. And according to the BitMEX founder, the feds decision would trigger other central banks to also ease their monetary policy. Quoting him here over to you, BTC, let's go. I shall increase the pace of my rotation out of treasury bills and into Bitcoin and ish coins. Now that the fed had paused over two meetings, every other central bank has cover to print expect massive stimulus coming from China, Europe and Japan. So there you have it coming directly from crypto Hayes. Just blaze. Let's get it now for the moment you have all been waiting for. Let's dive into our featured story of the day and discuss a Bitcoin ETF being approved this month in November. And what would that mean for the crypto market? Let's break this baby down. We have Steven McClurg, the chief investment officer at Valkyrie investments has put forth a strong indication that a landmark approval from the U S SCC for a spot Bitcoin ETF can transpire by the month's end. Send it and let's go. The approval of the spot ETF is currently one of the biggest factors influencing the Bitcoin price as well as the entire crypto markets trajectory. You can say that again now alongside the financial giants such as black rock, the world's largest asset manager fidelity, which is about half the size of black rock. We got Vanek, we got Invesco, we got Valkyrie, one of the companies at the forefront of the battle with the SCC over the spot ETF. We also have grayscale. Don't forget the GBTC product. We have the firm managing to Bitcoin related ETFs at the moment. Now Valkyrie Bitcoin and ether strategy ETF and the Valkyrie Bitcoin miners ETF with a combined asset value of 51 .1 million at this time. And they also have active filings for spot Bitcoin ETF. Now McClurg, citing the latest amendments to Valkyrie spot, Bitcoin ETF app anticipates the SCC will issue another series of comments within the next weeks, potentially setting the stage for the approval of the 19 before rule changes by the end of the month. Send it quitting him here before anything else happens, we get a second round of comments and I believe we'll probably get those comments in the next one to three weeks. A late November approval likely means a February launch. So note that if we get the green light in November, it means the Bitcoin ETF would likely launch a few months later in February, which would be right in time again for the Bitcoin having. Now he also shared with ETF .com this interview suggesting a timeline for the SCCs response to these crucial amendments. He also argues the SCC can wait until January to ask the applicants to put the final touches on their S one filings. That's the other alternative scenario. Now Nate Geraci, host of the ETF prime pod explain that Valkyrie CIO suggests SCC can approve the 19 B fours exchange rule changes for the spot Bitcoin ETFs by the end of November and then the S one registration statements early next year. These don't have to be approved at the same time, so keep that in mind. Though they need both for the ETFs to begin trading. Now in recent weeks, the SCC has been actively communicating with ETF apps and disclose that the agency is carefully scrutinizing all spot Bitcoin ETF apps. The focal points of the SCCs inquiry have pertained to the comprehensive explanation of various risk disclosures, methodologies concerning index usage and net asset value computations, environmental risk inclusions, as well as detailed insights into custodial practices. Recent amendments to filings by entities such as BlackRock and VanEck have been augmented to eludicate how initial fun seating could be conducted and also note that BlackRock already began seeding their ETF back in October, which was last month. This is something that Larry Fink their CEO has already disclosed. Now because of that, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic. We have Matt Hogan, the CIO of bitwise asset management, highlighting lingering concerns, quitting him here. Market manipulation is still a potential stumbling block. Custody isn't a wrap, so there is still a lot of work to do, he stated. Now the anticipation isn't purely speculative. The man forecast suggests substantial interest. McClurg envisions about 10 billion bucks flowing into these products within the first one to two months post launch. While bitwise projects 50 billion in inflows within the first five years. I think that's extremely conservative. I could see trillions of inflows within five years, but hey, to each their own. Valkyrie revised its spot Bitcoin ETF filing October 30th a few days ago with an S1 registration statement submitted to the SCC outlining the Valkyrie ETF. The proposed fund shares are intended to be listed under the ticker BRRR on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Valkyrie updated their app and a part of a wider trend as several firms have similarly refiled their spot ETF apps signaling a concerted effort toward regulatory compliance and optimism for approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst, James Saferard identified these amendments as positive signals for progress and possible imminent approvals. Let me know which you think will get the green light first from the SCC. We all know it's imminent. We all know it's going to happen, but when is it going to be November? Is it going to be December? Could it be January? Could it be March? Let me know in the live poll we have on the screen. I have some bonus content to share with you before we dive into the live Q and A. This is from jury and Timur. Why is this so relevant? He is the head of macro at fidelity fidelity being a four and a half trillion dollar asset manager. He's the one who predicted a billion dollar Bitcoin price by the year 2038 and here's something he just recently shared. He shares some incredible threads I want to share with you. Bitcoin is volatile, but it's scarcity and adoption curve create the potential for it to be a high powered hedge against monetary shenanigans. I think of it as exponential gold and in this chart it shows you Bitcoin going past $1 .2 million per coin. That's pretty sexy. Gets me excited as he shares here. One of the attributes of Bitcoin is that it's a network asset and as such it's adoption curve has followed the typical S curve shape. We have seen many of the S curves throughout history and he continues here in the thread. The question, where is Bitcoin's journey along that S curve? A network assets value is driven by its adoption curve, so the slope of that curve matters a lot. Makes a good point. And when I first went down this rabbit hole in late 2020 it's adoption curve, which I defined as the number of non -zero addresses was very steep. It resembled the S curve for mobile phones during the 1980s and the 1990s, which was pretty promising. I'm going to read you a few more now. However, as the real rate narrative changed from dovish in 2020 to hawkish in 2022, the adoption curve flattened and it is now closer to the slope of the internet adoption curve from the two thousands and it has not made much progress since 2021. Now we also had some other threads which are very valuable. I'm just going to read the lead part of it with Bitcoin moving up. Once again, will its adoption curve accelerate as it did a few years ago and how does the macro trend on rates affect it? There's some very insightful data. If you want this, check the show notes below the video in the description. I'll include all of this. And he had one more good thread continuing the discussion from the recent thread on Bitcoin. I highly recommend you check this out because again, this is the head of macro over at Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset managers. So there you have it, my crypto fam and don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts .net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in our live Q and a, and I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode.
HASHR8
A highlight from Bidens AI Executive Order, Core Scientifics Exiting Chapter 11 and Tethers $600M Loan
"Welcome back to the mining pod. We got a great news roundup. Actually, a lot of stuff happened in Bitcoin mining this week, so we have much to get into. The shows have been getting slightly longer. We apologize for that. I think it's because we really like Bitcoin mining, so we just ended up talking about it a lot. As always, Charlie and Matt are joining me today. We'll get into the news in just a moment, but first a word from our sponsors. Did you know that you can make more money by merge mining other networks? Check out makemoremoneymining .com for information on BIPs 300 and 301, a proposal to bring more revenue to Bitcoin miners through sidechains and merge mining, called drivechains. Increase your mining revenues and learn more about participating in Bitcoin governance by visiting makemoremoneymining .com. Are you a miner who wants to activate Bitcoin improvements? Check out activation .watch. 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Hey, MiningPod. I'm Lee Bratcher, President of the Texas Blockchain Council. The Texas Blockchain Summit is now the North American Blockchain Summit. The same emphasis on policy, energy, and Bitcoin mining, but now expanded by working with our partners across the country. We've got great sponsors lined up like Riot, Marathon, GDA, Cleanspark, BitDeer, Lanceum, Kormit, Compass, HTS, Crypto Power, Priority Power, Sunoda, and many more. Solidify your next deal or JV or just come for the networking on November 15th through 17th in Fort Worth, Texas for the third annual North American Blockchain Summit. We'll see you there. Okay, welcome back to the show. On the docket, four different topics this week. First, we're going to start off with a little sidebar from Michael Saylor talking about Bitcoin miners dumping on the market. We'll get a little video here in a second, some responses to that. Then we're going to go into the meat of today's conversation. Biden administration putting out an executive order around AI and compute, then moving over to Core Scientific and its notice to move out of Chapter 11 in the coming months, and finishing off with Tether and its recent unsecured loan to Northern Data. So I'll first throw this video up on the screen. Let's take a listen now. Michael, Bob Pisani here. Bitcoin is going to be having a halving next year. That's a rare event. Can you sort of educate the viewers on what happens when that occurs and what, if any, effect that'll have on Bitcoin's price? Well, most of the natural sellers of Bitcoin in the market right now are Bitcoin miners, and they have to sell to pay their electricity bill and their capital cost and retire their debt. That's about a billion dollars a month's worth of selling into the market. The protocol forces that to be cut in half as of about next April, late April. So you're going to see $12 billion of natural selling per year converted into $6 billion of natural selling a year, at the same time as things like Spot, Bitcoin, ETFs increase the demand for Bitcoin. So that's why all of us are fairly bullish over the next 12 months. Demand's going to increase, supply is going to contract, and this is fairly unprecedented in the history of Wall Street. All right, I'll start off with this one. Yes, please do. Okay, so his assumption is that every coin that is mined is going to be sold basically immediately by a miner. Where I agree with him is that miners are natural market participants, and they are natural sellers in some degree in the sense that that is how they receive their revenue through mining, earning Bitcoin, and then they do have operational costs that they have to pay. But as we've seen clearly by public miners, right, in a very public fashion, people hold Bitcoin. Miners particularly hold Bitcoin in our long Bitcoin. He also makes it sound like this is a kind of a lot of spot market sell volume, when he said about a billion a month, which that's the upper bound. Where daily spot Bitcoin market volume is like this year, I would say average probably five to seven billion a day, right? And that's probably on a subset of exchanges, not globally. So we're talking about a pretty small market impact with not necessarily right numbers. Not to completely call them out, but I don't know, Charlie, what do you guys think? He can call them out. I'll echo what you said, Matt. I mean, miners are a natural seller of Bitcoin to cover opex. And this has kind of been a part of the conversation. Are miners the primary seller? Are they kind of the primary driver of this selling pressure in the market? If we back test it, if we look at real numbers, it's pretty clear they're not the primary driver. They're not the main seller of Bitcoin that happens kind of for other market reasons and other market participants. So I think it's actually pretty well understood of a phenomenon now or kind of mechanic in the market where I would say sailors kind of wrong characterizing it like this is not entirely wrong talking about the other things such as issuance and supply and demand ramping up. But as far as like sell pressure, I think that's a mischaracterization. Yeah, so I saw this video this morning on my feed, and I got a little annoyed because I do think like there's a lot of misinformation around Bitcoin selling into the market. I think it's just like the easy swing to take at people. And he does have like a lot of broad strokes answers within the CNBC interview. And I understand why he's talking to like a boomer market. They're not necessarily going to get it. They can understand that there's these miners and they sell. So that's why they like make everything so abstract. That being said, a billion dollars a month is not what we're seeing. So I looked at two metrics, just to sort of understand how miners are selling right now. One being this one from CoinMetrics, which takes a look at the one hop addresses, which would probably be Bitcoin miners. That's the best we can kind of guess. And how often they are selling based on what is their supply? Is their supply decreasing over a certain time period? And from August to October, it decreased by about a billion dollars USD over like a 60 to 90 day period you can see here on the screen. But it's actually rebounding right now. So that means miners are probably holding more. The second metric we looked at was the percentage of cells or the amount of Bitcoin sold by public miners. So we have that information from their statements they put out every month, and we have about 20 of these public miners. And they put out how many Bitcoin they sell every single month. And I just went back and looked at the last month that we have numbers for in September. And above 15 public miners took a look at, they sold about 165 million dollars worth of Bitcoin over that time period. And that's possibly like between 20 and 25 percent of network cash rate. So to get to Michael Saylor's number of one billion dollars sold per month, you'd have to assume that all these other Bitcoin miners are also dumping on the market and they're also dumping on like a price point that would push it towards a one billion dollar volume. It just seems like a little nonsensical to me. And then the other thing I wanted to mention was he talks about like this cell pressure is always there when it's not. You can look at this chart right here. You can see like Bitcoin miners are typically accumulating. They're not really selling. A lot of the miners we've tracked over the last year or so have been accumulating. It's only been the last few months that they're selling and they're really only selling their production. They're not selling their treasuries. They typically have very large totals. But we've probably beaten that subject to death unless Matt, you have a follow up? I was just going to say if what Saylor was saying is true, that chart would be a flat line, right? Because it's a cumulative amount held by the addresses. But very different, yes. Well, actually, you should you should relay that it's in dollar terms. You should relay the Bitcoin price over the chart. But you can see on that chart that in May 2020, it was going up, right? So when the previous halving hit, actually the amount held by miners was increasing as coins were being issued at one half the rate. Maybe that'll happen again. I do like starting off an episode with a modest Saylor pushback. So a modest proposal for Saylor. That's okay. He bought more Bitcoin this week. So I guess we'll take it. Well, we'll appreciate what he did. Let's go over to another video clip. The Biden administration this week put out an executive order relating to general compute and AI, essentially stating that if you're over a certain size of compute, then you need to register with the national government so they can keep an eye on you. Very interesting executive order that made a lot of people in the tech industry unhappy. I saw Marc Andreessen tweeting about this. I saw numerous people tweeting about this in the tech industry, saying you can pry this GPU out of my cold, dead hands is basically the tagline. Now for the gist of it, I do want to get into it in a second. It does seem like the regulations are such a high hurdle or threshold at this point that's not really going to affect the industry. It's like a forward -looking regulation. But it is somewhat concerning. Before we go into that, I do want to show this clip from Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI. He testified in May to Congress about the need for regulation in AI. And to me, this is sort of where the whole story begins. So I get this video first before we dive into anything else. But it is absolutely true that the number of companies that can train the true frontier models is going to be small just because of the resources required. And so I think there needs to be incredible scrutiny on us and our competitors. I think there is a rich and exciting industry happening of incredibly good research and new startups that are not just using our models, but creating their own. And I think it's important to make sure that whatever regulatory stuff happens, whatever new agencies may or may not happen, we preserve that fire. Charlie, I'll hand it over to you to get your take on it. This pissed off a lot of people in the tech industry, as I think it should. But where do you think you draw the line for regulation? Dude, I'm really not that qualified to talk about regulation on AI. I think this should be a careful scrutinized industry, but I don't know how we should scrutinize it. Sam Altman tends to be a divisive figure and kind of rubs me the wrong way as far as like how much trust him to be the figurehead for this new frontier, as he says, but I really don't have a strong take on this. I'll throw it over to Matt. I will give my consumer's perspective, but I guess like Sam Altman is, and that's the first time I've seen that clip, but he's like in a line of these notorious tech founders, Zuckerberg, Elon, coming to Congress and saying, we are open, please regulate our industry. I can't help but think, of course they want that. It just gives them a bigger moat if there's more regulatory capture, if there's more licenses that need to be done that restricts open competition. My worry is that in the AI industry particularly, if there is a higher barrier to compete, that when we interact with AI, there will be kind of a standard truth among them that spits out a lot of very plausible, believable answers, but if you've interacted with any of the earlier large language models of today, they can be very believable, but they can also be incorrect if you are asking them about things that you yourself are a subject matter expert on. I think open competition is a very good thing in the sense that other perspectives or more truths can be relayed to you from interacting with AI. That was a bit of a rant, but the general sense is that open competition, I think, is pretty important in the AI space, especially with how big people are forecasting it will become. I went to see the Oracle of All Truth, which has read it to better understand this executive order, and the executive order said, quote, any model trained with over 280 million H100 hours, H100 being a model of GPU, or any cluster with 10 to 20 FLOPS, which is 50 ,000 H100s, so it gave this very generalistic metric for understanding what is going to be regulated by the government or must be regulated by the government, and for most people, it's like, I have no idea what that is, but according to Reddit, the idea here is that this is a very, very high threshold. Only a few companies would be able to do this. The Microsofts, meet that threshold at this point, but that does give the government the ability to start incrementally regulating this industry as it gets going and off the ground, very much in the same way that they tried to do this with early compute in the 70s and 80s. They tried to do with cryptography in the 90s. Typically, all these things fail over time, but it does present a large hurdle and or does create monopolies within the new tech sector. I'll say it seems ridiculous to me to define an amount of compute at the legal or at the structural level. This is the fastest moving industry, so by the time this becomes enshrined into law or policy, then we will already have been Moore's law 18 months, doubled the amount of compute or whatever. It seems crazy to me to define it like that. I have not had a lot of faith in our regulators to tech understand at a level well enough to regulate it, so I'm not super optimistic that we'll know what we're doing this time around.
The Aloönæ Show
A highlight from S14 E08: The 5-Day Job Search Success Story
"Hello, welcome to the alone a show. I'm your host John May alone a this episode don't have regulars cuz reasons I guess Getting old, but whatever as for a guest He is she is from New York City Curly in Boston and she is a best -selling author of the five -day job search Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Annie Margarita Yang Hey Peter, I'm so excited to be on your show today Thank you so much for inviting me to the alone a show Before we get started I just want to let your listeners know that if they stick around until the end of today's episode They will learn how they can get a special offer, which is a 10 % off Coupon code on the five -day job search and not only that it will be a signed paperback copy of the five -day job search So hey guys, please stick until the very end. I Can refuse this kind of office. So yeah, I just really suggest that it'll be pretty cool So how's life? Life, I think life has been quite busy, but I don't complain. It's been quite wonderful. I'm actually on a podcast tour at the moment booked on 60 podcasts to promote this new book getting on between like two to four each day and So much more than 60 because my plan is to go on 500 over the next 12 months So I would say busy but wonderful good grief. That's a lot of podcast. Yes, that's crazy Well, you know, my motto is you got to go big or go home Whenever you're setting out to do something. So I can't argue with that that's I I go though up by that saying every day and Have you been up too much recently besides doing podcast appearances? Well, I've been learning how to do marketing because this is my second book and the first book I haven't done any marketing for the first book, which is one thousand one ways to save money Most of the sales came from my youtube channel where at the end of the video. I just tell people hey guys I don't take sponsorships on my channel because I want to stay as authentic as possible So if you want to support me just buy a copy of my book on Amazon and leave a review But this second book the five -day job search I'm looking to actually sell millions of this So I want this to go mainstream So so I'm like trying to learn as much as possible on How that's done and I'm just throwing every single possible idea out there and implementing it It doesn't matter what the cost is, but just trying to figure it all out. So That's what I've been up to lately All right, very good. Very good So, uh before you get you've got down to writing this book What what what jobs or experience did you have up until now? I've had several so from I guess the time I graduated high school Just a whole string of minimum wage jobs such as like giving massages working as a cashier Slicing deli meats and cheeses working at Domino's pizza Collecting tickets basketball things like that but what really inspired the subject for this book and why it's called the five -day job search is because after I graduated with a degree in Communications, I ended up working at Domino's pizza. So don't let your degree due to speaking for you because it's not the golden ticket It's supposed to be to want a great paying job and After Domino's pizza, I moved to Boston. I decided you know what? I want to make my mark on this world I don't care what people think what they're gonna say. I'm just gonna go after everything I want. So I applied for accounting jobs without an accounting degree and I Applied to 50 but 50 jobs per day Within a week. I got a job offer and That was great. But then that manager was toxic, right? So Two months later. I was on a job search again. I landed another accounting position in only six days Then a year later. I wanted to buy a house So I needed to make even more money and I figured my boss wouldn't give me the raise that I want So I decided it's time for another job search Started looking started applying to 50 a day and then within five days. I got an accounting position Without the accounting degree, so there must be something I'm doing right That other people don't know or or aren't doing because far more people are more qualified than me But why is it that I'm the one who gets the job? Interesting I actually do want to know What what is it in your book and the end the journey you have talking? that has really got you to the position that you've gotten yourself into I Would say I've really learned personal branding So one of the things that I talk about in the book is the importance of having a professional headshot That's actually like one of the first things that I did after I landed the entry -level accounting position I got was okay. Now I'm making more money than when I was making minimum wage How am I gonna use this extra money that I now have this disposable money? I decided to save up that money to get a professional headshot done and I learned that the headshot isn't for the job you have now So just because I was working in entry -level accounting doesn't mean that the headshot should Make make it look like that's the kind of job I was working the headshot should actually be for the job that you want. So the photographer he asked me What what's your end goal here? like what do you want your next job to be or like really down the line and I said I want to look like a future CFO in the making and He said, okay, that's what we're gonna go after and Not just that not just getting the professional headshot done but like You really have to put your best foot forward for that photo because 80 % of looking amazing Is from all the homework you do before you step into the studio. So this photographer he told me hey Annie This is everything you need to do like three days before get a good night's sleep because you can't hide eye bags with Photoshop You know also Drink lots of water because you need to stay hydrated especially your lips. You don't want chapped lips You can't fix that with Photoshop Another thing is book an appointment at your local hair salon get your hair done, you know Get a haircut get a blowout so you come in looking amazing the same day and then also use a makeup artist because a lot of people they can do their makeup and It doesn't look right because makeup done in real life is very natural looking but actually when it's done for the camera, it needs to look cakey because Otherwise you will look so washed out and white Due to the bright white studio light So you need to use a professional makeup artist to come out with your best and this applies to men men Also need to wear makeup for the photo That's big and When do you do you think that it's important to have some sort of experience when you apply for a job as or more than With the degrees and education that you've gotten in the past. I Think the experience is far more important than the degree because You know based on what I've seen and my personal journey the employer has cared more about my past experiences and accomplishments more than Where or what I studied in college.
The Bitboy Crypto Podcast
A highlight from INSANE Solana Price Prediction! (100X Incoming!)
"It is a great day to discover crypto, everybody. It is one day away from Halloween. I hope you're feeling spooky. The only thing spooky is you're not hitting the like button. We got some insane price predictions from VanEck, one of the largest asset managers in the world. And they have some very, very bullish price targets, but they also have a very bearish price target. We're going to go over those for Solana, plus their nice Bitcoin thesis and why there's going to be a lot of institutional money flowing in, and we're seeing that in the stats as well. Also, we're going to talk about Miles Deutscher. That guy's insane. I've been following his stuff for years. It's really, really interesting. Got some stuff from Ralph Paul as well. Plus, we have a brand new person, an oldie but goodie on the sidecar today. How are you doing today? I'm doing good. First time on the side desk, I think, so I'm going to be testing out, chatting with everybody in the chat. But yeah, when VanEck is pumping your bags, it's a good day to be in crypto. So yeah, I'm loving it. All right. Well, let's look at today in crypto. So we have the crypto market cap. It looks like it's up 1 .7%. I do want to go ahead and hit refresh here. We might need to, I don't know if I have coin, I don't have coin market cap at the time, but we'll look at this. CoinGecko, we do have Bitcoin up slightly. It's about half a percent, so it looks kind of good. But ETH, it's got double the pump, baby. It is up 1 .0 % here. But when we start scrolling down, we see some bigger winners. First big winner we see, well, relative. XRP up 3 .6%. Bigger than that, though, we have Solana. Solana is up 7%. I may or may not have bought Solana this weekend, folks. I may or may not have bought this weekend. That's all I'm going to say. We have Chainlink also looking good. Chainlink is up 3 .2%. Just defying all expectations of a pullback on the short term. And then Avalanche up 4%. But let's look at the biggest ones, the biggest gainers, the biggest losers. I think maybe one of the coins I took profits on, yeah, rollbit, baby. I took profit. I took some more profit. I've taken profit once before. I took profit a second time on rollbit. This is one that we put in the Crucial Crypto newsletter a long time ago. I told you about before the pump sold. I can't remember which peak I sold. I remember going down, I didn't buy more, and now that we're kind of testing this $0 .20 resistance level, I said, you know what, it might be time to exit out. So I put a little into Solana, I put a little bit into USDC. I have a little too much USDC in that wallet, so that's why I didn't go all Solana there. Alright, ThorChain. Look at ThorChain. We did a video on ThorChain. It is up 9 .5%. We did a video on Solana. If you go here to here eight days ago, folks, we did this video. If you haven't watched it, make sure you give it a shout out, give it a like, give it a comment on there. It just made me excited. It made me excited for Solana. Was that the deep dive Solana video? That is the deep dive. Top 3 reasons for Solana pump. I'm not saying we called it, but you know what, if you turn all those notifications, you can get these videos nice and timely. What's your Solana thesis here? No, it's good. I mean, I've liked Solana for a long time. A lot of you guys know I bought it last cycle around $5. It's an interesting layer one. Obviously being pumped pretty hard by institutional money, VC money, something we've been watching for a while. It is a little bit, it's conflicting a little bit when you see these big financial asset managers pumping things because usually when they're coming out screaming insanely bullish predictions that represents a local top or even a macro top. So I don't take everything they say with a grain of salt, $3 ,000 is an absolutely insane price prediction. We're going to get into that a little bit more as far as like what that would actually mean for market cap for it to get to that level. Their base case is a little bit more reasonable in my opinion. But in that video that you did like a week or two ago, it really breaks down the plan that Solana has the roadmap and it's a very strong narrative for the next couple of years. And it's something that people with influence and capital, there's a lot behind it. Jump capital I know is one of the ones behind Solana, a lot of big money behind it. They're going to want to pump their bags and there's a really good narrative around that. So it's fascinating to me when you see somebody as big as Vanette coming out and making these insanely bullish predictions. So it's going to be wild as we get into this. I feel like we're just getting started in this bull market. So keep an eye on who's saying what, but we really need to keep an eye on where the dollars are flowing more than what the headlines are. Yeah. Watch the capital inflows and outflows. We have Love Breakers. DZ, you rule, man. Please listen to our band. Is your band name Love Breakers? We're going to find it. Love Breakers sounds like a UK dating reality show. Love Breakers. Love Breakers. It's like where their mom is like hovering over the date saying, uh -uh, he didn't open the door for you. I'm a Love Breaker now. That's a show. That's a show. Let's go. All right. Let's get back to the show at hand here. And that's looking at the top crypto gainers and losers. We've got a couple more gainers we want to look at. Gala, baby. Gala is pumping. I'm going to put out a short today on gaming tokens. So we have Gala pumping. There's another big pumper today and I want to talk. It's an Axie Infinity ecosystem token. SLP is way up. I'm going to tell you the next two tokens that's on my radar because I see what pumps. What's the next thing to pump? So that's a really good short. You're going to want to make sure you check that out. Probably be out next couple hours. Monero is up 6 .5%. Somewhere Mind Your Biz is feeling pretty happy about that one. That's almost a stable coin, folks. Algorand up 4 .6%. And those who don't know, I mean, let's just, I almost probably can't show it because, Max, I don't know how. Yeah. If you go to the one year chart, that is very unlike most crypto charts. So very, very just kind of trading sideways there. All right. Now it's time for the top losers. Is your coin going to be in there? Is your enemy's coin going to be in there? Is that Jerk Boss, is his coin going to be in here? Is Deezy's coin going to be in there? Let's look. Maker. Maker is down 2 .2%. Then oh, well, yeah, you don't go far. Apecoin. Apecoin is down 2 .1%. But it is up 25 % for the week. Kind of just pumping off this gaming narrative. DYDX is down a little bit. But after that, really, things aren't moving too far down. Decentraland's down. Casper's down. Really, other than that, though, after that, we're in less than 1%. But you're ready to talk some insane price actions. But first, VanEck. They got some other news. They got an insane Solana prediction there. You can see it, 32, 32 .11. What are they saying about Bitcoin? And then we'll get into the Solana stuff. So new spot Bitcoin ETF filing submitted by VanEck is the investment giant. They resubmitted the application to the SEC here. Stitch over there. Oh, look at a little scoochie here. In June, the firm came up with a new application to the securities watchdog for a spot ETF. This came just months after the agency shot down its prior request, though. Is it inevitable though? The Galaxy Digital predicts the much coveted products could attract more than $14 billion. Yeah, we talked about the inflows, potential inflows last week. All right, well, let's see here. And VanEck joins the amendment. Here's the Jeff Seifart. We really got to get a hold of this guy. Him and Eric have just been crushing it lately for Bloomberg. They're the ETF analysts there. But this is the important part. I want to talk about VanEck Bitcoin ETF may use Bitcoin for seed funding. Okay, so why is that important? I thought they all use Bitcoin. No, I'm using cash for the seed investment portion of it. So let's look at this. So according to Scott Johnson, with an extra S there, he speaks Parseltongue, the updated prospectus for VanEck's ETF contains seed funding language similar to BlackRock. However, there's one important difference here. Instead of using cash for seed funding, VanEck recommends using actual Bitcoin. Why do I think that's a good idea? And TJ, I want to bounce this off you. I think Bitcoin is going to go on a largely upward trend over the next 12 months. And so if you do have this ETF, say it comes out in March, say it comes out in January, maybe it comes out in June, maybe it's further down than everybody's expecting here. If you're buying Bitcoin today versus buying Bitcoin in March, well, I happen to feel like you're making a better choice today. So yeah, BlackRock, they're putting in, I'm just throwing out a number here, they're putting in $500 million. For VanEck, they might be putting in the seed amount that's buying actual Bitcoin. Well say we go live in March, who's going to be better off? The people that bought Bitcoin or the people that have cash invested ready to buy Bitcoin? Well I think they're going to be better off buying Bitcoin according to the four -year cycle here. Well, if we look here, what is seed funding? Seed funding is when financial institutions contribute capital to purchase an ETF's underlying assets in exchange for shares that can be traded when the ETF launches. This provides initial liquidity. Think of the rich players getting in on the ground floor. You know, you're going to have, here's how it's really going to work, BlackRock is going to give $10 billion to State Street, who's going to give $8 billion to Vanguard, who's going to give $7 billion to BlackRock, who also gave money to Vanguard, it's just going to be a big circle right there. But then they say, hey, you know, there's no monopoly, there's no monopoly here. Well, VanEck filed for a new application in July 2023, and several other companies including BlackRock, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Fidelity, and Invesco also have filings for potential ETF's before the SEC. I want to see if Jeff has any latest tweet here, because he's always got the new new, the fresh data, and they operate in the morning sometimes, he could catch a tweet like four minutes old. I'm still feeling like March, I guess more and more people are starting to feel January, I'm just going to be the one that goes with the prediction markets. I don't have any inside information with the SEC, I'm not Gary Gensler's nephew, I don't know if they're going to do January, I don't know if they're going to do March, but I will say this, it's increasingly likely that we are going to see an ETF in the next six months, next five months. What odds would you put it that we have it by March? I'm going to put in insanely high odds, you know, I'm really bullish. I'm going to say 85 % plus by March, I don't see it really getting past March. The question in my mind is, do we see it before the end of the year? You brought up several different things there, I think it's fascinating that VanEck's talking about seeding this ETF with Bitcoin rather than with DollarsDZ, you made a good point. Either way, a spot Bitcoin ETF means buying pressure on spot Bitcoin, that's going to be very, very good, it's just a matter of how much buying pressure and when. If VanEck is trying to seed this thing with Bitcoin, the ultimate question becomes, where do they get that Bitcoin? Where does that Bitcoin come from? Because we can see right here, you know, this was put out by Bitcoin Magazine, see if I can back this out just a little bit. Oh, I like the colors there. Yeah, it basically, you can see this is supply on exchanges since May of 2020 and it's just continually dropping, I guess it's auto adjusting my screen over there, but it's the lowest it's been, I think, in about six years. So where is the price, where's the Bitcoin going to come from? Because it's going to create an insane amount of buying pressure on Bitcoin very, very quickly, whether they're converting those dollars into Bitcoin end of this year, early next year, or if they're accumulating all that Bitcoin dramatically quickly right now, it's a good time to be in Bitcoin. And like I said, when you see institutions and hedge funds and trillion dollar asset managers starting to pump your bags, it bodes well for where the price is going. So yeah, I can't wait. Let me, let me crap on my own point here. Here's why it might be bad that they're buying spot Bitcoin versus putting in cash today. Well, imagine everybody's unleashed at once and then, you know, to TJ's point, small amount of Bitcoin on exchanges, what if it was a surprise announcement, Gary Gensler, he knows he's being watched for the one time in his, I'm just joking, you know, he didn't give Goldman Sachs, his cronies, the inside info there. Imagine if every BlackRock employee, Vanguard employee, what if they all just woke up to the same news and they had a spot buy Bitcoin? Well, Vanguard has the Bitcoin already. They wouldn't have to, or VanEck had the Bitcoin already. They wouldn't have to buy it. But if they all had to buy it once, that's when you could see a parabola. That's when you could see that insane amount of just crazy one minute candles, one hour candles, as exchanges just go into FOMO mode as I don't have enough, they don't have enough, I got to hurry up and buy some, I don't care if the price is spiked $10 ,000 in two minutes, buy that Bitcoin now before it goes up $20 ,000. Next thing you know, it is up $20 ,000. That would be the scenario that plays out that way. But people are ready for the Solana price prediction here. I see people talking about it. What do you think? Is it going to hit a new all time high? First, let's get Drew's two cents here. Drew, will Solana hit a new all time high next bull run? What do you say? I'm having to say yes at this point. It's got a lot of the community stuck through it to the really bad parts of the FUD that it ran through with FTX and Sam. He's out of the picture as being handled in courts. I think it's it's going to probably at least hit its previous all time high. All right. All right. I'm tending to agree. I'm more likely than not that we do go above was it 260 or so. So I do think we get strong rejection at three. So we go above it, but barely. That's DZ's two cents here. Where do you come in? New all time high. Yeah, I think I mean, we're basically the previous all time high is about 258. So we're talking that 300 number. I think that was within the base case of Vanex prediction. It it can do that. It's just going to have to keep that narrative. And it's not that's one thing you need to keep in mind when you're investing in crypto. Speculation is part of the game and it's not necessarily the coin that should reach the highest market cap. It's which coin can reach the highest market cap and who's behind it, who's pumping it. All of those things matters. ETF is going to matter. Grayscale, what they're doing with Cardano. You could see how that quickly reignited that narrative. So many people over and thinking Cardano was and I don't know if it'll reach new all time highs. Hey, if you can get institutional money into it, you know, maybe there will be. So, yeah, I think we're going to I think let's see, what do they have? They had the base case at three thirty five, the bear case at ten and then the insanely high case at thirty to eleven. So base case at three thirty five here, which again is just off the bottom of my important note, twenty thirty next bull run. No, no. We're talking about not only the next bull run, if there's still a four year cycle, we're talking about the one after that. It would be a peak in twenty twenty nine if the four year cycle still play out. So two cycles from now, I definitely think a base I would come in at higher than three thirty five conservative. Yeah, I would say three thirty five is slightly high for the next bull run. I would say three thirty five is pretty low for the one following that. This is an interesting number in chat. What do you think of this number? Worst case scenario, ten dollars, ten dollar Solana, not twenty twenty five by twenty thirty. So ten dollar Solana, I feel like that's a little bit bearish. I mean, the chain shut down over a dozen times and it didn't drop. You didn't see huge declines, FTX collapse. And what was their biggest holding Solana by far? They're dumping Solana, they're dumping Solana on everyone's face. Still didn't get what it bounced off ten. Right. And that's as low as it went then. So you're talking about for all time high for next cycle, top ten dollars is a little low. Now let's talk about the bull case number here. I would put this at less than I want to say less than one percent odds, but I would say less than maybe two and a half percent. I would put that it's it's around a one percent chance, maybe a three thousand two hundred and eleven dollars Solana by twenty thirty. I know a lot of people are saying, oh, you have it on the thumbnail. You think it's going to that, don't you idiot? I don't think it's going to go to that. I put it at one percent odds and then that one percent that is you know, that is the hundred dollar gallon of milk, maybe even one percent a little high. What do you guys feel about thirty two hundred dollars Solana? I mean, you got to think they're taking into account a severe impact to the dollar not being as valuable by twenty thirty. I have to imagine that's part of the analysis there. It is fast. It's funny to me when you see Vanek making it couldn't be a more broad from ten dollars to thirty two hundred dollar prediction. You know, you you pretty much covered the entire spectrum there where it's like no matter what happens, you're not going to be, quote unquote, wrong. So it is funny when you see asset managers with more bullish predictions than YouTubers out there. But this is what I think is interesting for the three hundred and fifty dollar mark to be hit. What market cap would be required on Solana? Can you see that? I'll scoot you just a bit. Other way. Yeah, there you go. Perfect. Perfect. Yeah. Here you go. So three hundred to get a price of three hundred fifty dollars, you would need a market cap of one hundred and forty six billion, which doesn't say it's high. I mean, that's you're talking about basically a 10 X for Solana, but it's not out of the question when you come over here and you look at that. Basically, there's worse tokenomics. Well, I mean, it's basically getting close to what Ethereum is right now. Ethereum is at 218 and you're asking for Solana to get to 146. So it's like if Solana could get to a market cap similar to where Ethereum is sitting right now, which, again, is very plausible, very feasible. We're talking the entire market coming up. We think the you know, if we move from one point two trillion to a three trillion dollar market cap, a five trillion dollar market cap. Now, again, these would be huge gains all the way around. I do think we'll get back above one trillion for Bitcoin fairly easily. So two, three, four, five trillion for total doesn't seem out of the question and seeing that flow into some of these other top performing layer ones with lower caps right now, it is very feasible to me. So three hundred fifty dollars. It is right in the middle of their insane prediction. Three thousand seems crazy. Ten to your point, Dizzy, I don't see that happening, but right within that, you know, I see it in the pushing new all time highs again, which I think that was 250. So it could easily break new all time highs into the 350. People asking about the leader of Anatoly Yakovenko, I think is how you say his last name, he's the CEO of Solana. If we're going to talk to anyone about Solana, we would probably target him because he would actually know what's happening. All right. Let's talk. All right. We got another article kind of breaking it down to Vanek believes Solana can grow ten thousand percent in value if it on boards. A hundred million users there. So that's a big if a hundred million is a lot of users. That's a lot of people. That's a whole lot of people. That's a whole lot of people stepping for their crypto there. All right. Asset manager Vanek says, hey, we could see a 10K pump there by 2030 if we attract one hundred million users. The most striking prediction is, I guess, is the ten thousand percent pump there. It's only one hundred X, folks. Comparatively, the price target is set at eleven thousand eight hundred. OK, that's for Ethereum there. So, ETH, they're saying going to twelve. Let's go. I like that. I like that for two bulls from now. I would say that's maybe a little bit higher than I'm thinking. But, you know, that's that's plausible. That's definitely doable, especially depending on how deflationary it becomes. You're so everybody feel like it's so conservative this time around. So that's twelve thousand for two cycles. That's because we're hitting these astronomical market caps. You know, I do think we'll get big gains. But, you know, we're talking about Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, these top ten coins. Once they 10X, it's a whole lot more work to make that 3X. Just because it's going to be a giant boulder. You know, sure, your gaming token, it's a little pebble. You can you can flick it and get a 50X. But when you have this giant boulder called Bitcoin, it takes a significant move just to move at 10 percent. So, yeah, I mean, I do think ETH.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"the next 12 months" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Putting money in cash, right? Pretty bearish to point the where you say oh maybe it's a contrarian call or is it pretty bearish that maybe things are turning for the worse. I just think, yeah, I think we see the economy slowing. A lot of people see the economy slowing. But also just cash at five percent is attractive to people. So you know maybe more than being bearish, it's hey, if I can clip five percent for a medium term, you know maybe that's the thing to do. What the is term that people are bearish on? Is it the near term? So recession risk, I think, I mean increasingly people are thinking odds of recession are falling. So, you know, soft landing is still sort of something that people are hopeful for. However, when you look at economists and sort of when you look at many of the leading indicators, whether it's the leading indicator index, global short rates, you know, senior loan officer survey, all these indicators drive that historically recessions and predict recessions, this will be the first time ever that like all of these things are predicting a recession. We don't get one. So, you know, I still think the odds, you know, we think in probabilities, not sort of yes, no odds are probably still higher over the next 12 months than over a typical 12 12 months, right? So I think that people are looking at that and they're looking at a market that's pretty expensive and they're saying, you know what, geopolitical risks, all these things, maybe it's best to just kind of sit on the sidelines. Ben Kirby, when you're back home in Santa Fe, what do people most often talk about? And do you see signs of recession around you? Probably hatch chilies. That's what I think people talk about in Santa Fe. I always ask them about Julia Roberts, but we're not going to go there. Yeah, well, 100%. So look, Santa Fe is a bit of an unusual microcosm. This is, you know, it is not a financial hub. restaurants The are still busy. People are still... Are they buying art? People are buying art? People are buying art like crazy, right? So, you know... Is it tourism or regular? It is mostly tourism. So, you know, Santa Fe is 75 ,000 people, but we get a million tourists a year. So that's an interesting microcosm. People are still traveling, right? So I think we've seen that people spent on in goods COVID and are spending on experiences after COVID. Santa Fe is a beneficiary of people traveling to a unique city, spending some money, eating some great food, and then flying back back home. Do you see that? Does it anecdotally and based on the people you speak to, the people who you live with? Is this happening to the same extent that it happened a year ago? Are people still spending money like they were? I think the high -end consumer is still doing great. We hear that a lot. Yeah, we do hear that a lot. Yeah, no, no, it's not everybody's enjoying. All 1 million people who visit Santa Fe are not high -end consumers. I think the ones who are spending the most are pretty high -end consumers. I mean, if you've ever gone art shopping in Santa Fe, it's pretty significantly pricing. You don't have to buy something you go if art shopping. You can just look as well, which is what I've done in Santa Fe. But on the other side, what we're seeing is delinquencies are increasing among lower -income cohorts, that excess savings that we got from the fiscal stimulus in COVID, there's still excess savings at the high end. At the low end, it's pretty much been spent, and now people are trying to rack up more debt. You know, looking at some of your funds that you are involved in managing, Thornburg Investment Income Builder Fund, consistently one of the top performing funds in its category. Thornburg Summit Fund, also an outperformer. I am curious, what's working? Give us some ideas of some of the strategies that are working. So overall Thornburg, we have 80 % of our assets are in four and five -star funds, which is really phenomenal sort of overall contribution from those portfolios. What's working this year? Income Builder is working really well, because even though we've talked about the magnificent seven and those seven stocks driving the entire market, actually our portfolio is up for the year. Many dividend paying stocks are down. Our portfolio is still performing pretty strongly. I think the fixed income is getting the most flows within our business. That's right. So we have a Thornburg strategic income portfolio, which is a multi -sector bond. Yield to worst is about seven and a half percent on that portfolio. So the argument is you get cash at five percent and that's great, but duration is zero. Euro. It's going to have that aspect to it. Or you get seven and a half percent in our strategic income portfolio with duration of about three and a half, four years. So if we do go into recession or slow down, that duration will be helpful. So I think that we're seeing a lot of interest in that portfolio, a lot of flows, and it really makes a lot of sense for the market right now. Where are you not seeing flows? not We're seeing nearly as many flows in active U .S. equities. That's true for the industry. That's turned significantly passive. Is that a mistake, though? Because I'm trying to think who was whether on, it was one of our in -house analysts or somebody who just, again, the focus is so much on the out -performers, but so much, whether it's of the S &P 500 or below 100 -day, 200 -day moving averages that haven't really performed. Is that a mistake that if you're actively managing, you could really find some great opportunities? I think it's a great opportunity. Brought to you by Thornburg. No, I'm just kidding. That was an assist. Say thank you. How was the setup? It wasn't. It wasn't. Look, the equal weight S &P is much more reasonably valued than the market Yeah. cap Thank kind of all -time historically interesting levels today. If you do have an active portfolio, you can pick individual securities. You don't have to be crowding into the same 7, 10 or 20 There are a lot of stones to turn over. Where would you crowd into? Within name, than that sector, spaces that you think are interesting. So I would expand the outside U .S. Honestly, I think the U .S. market is expensive even on an equal weighted Europe, basis versus for example, where you can buy a lot of really great companies at 7x earnings, 8x earnings, up to 10x earnings. And in the U .S., it's 20. So it's been a discount for a long time. It's a bigger discount today. We think it's a really attractive opportunity and then dividend paying stocks more broadly at a time when we're in an interest rate station and the cost of capital is going to be higher. We think that will favor those big dominant companies that generate cash flow as opposed to those earlier stage companies that need to issue debt and equity to fund their business. Thank you. Great to catch up with you, co -head of investments and portfolio manager at Thurnberg Investment Management. You're listening to Bloomberg This is Bloomberg Radio. Pop culture is always evolving and those changes impact our lives in ways that are responsible and not so obvious. I'm Lucas Shaw and I cover the business of pop culture for Bloomberg. My job is to uncover how entertainment is changing and explain what that means for you because context changes how you see things, how you change things. Context changes everything. Start exploring my coverage and learn more at Bloomberg .com. We focus the power of our thinking on you. Creating customized plans to help achieve your goals. The power of Oppenheimer thinking is boundless and original. Listening more closely and investing with the confidence of over a century of experience. Creating new opportunities that rely on innovation, preserving capital and come from deep insights. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking into your investing.
Crypto Banter
"the next 12 months" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"You know, we can argue and we can argue forever. We can argue forever. But I mean, here's the performance in 2023. And we can look at any time frame that you want. All right. Bitcoin was at $20,000 at a peak in 2017. Yes. So it's been seven years. And, you know, it's only marginally higher than that, right? It's at $27,000. Where was gold in 2017? It was lower. I mean, you know, but yeah, but gold wasn't a brand new thing. Hold on. Hold on. Let's just go back. You brought it up. You brought it up. So I'm going to humor you. I'm going to humor you here. You brought it up. I didn't bring it up. So quickly, let's just go there. And let's just have a look. So I'm going to go to the weekly charts of both Bitcoin and gold. I'm going to go to 2017 because you said it. So Bitcoin was at $20,000. Bitcoin is 20% higher, 25% higher than it was. Gold 2017 was a high in 2017. Well, let's take it at the high of 2017. The high of 2017 is 1352. Okay. So in that specific timeframe, maybe gold outperformed Bitcoin ever so slightly. In fact, it's just- Right. But that's not the point I was trying to make. Yes, gold has beaten Bitcoin over those six or seven years. But the point is that back then, Bitcoin was supposed to be several hundred thousand by now, according to all the proponents of the day. But so was gold. No, nobody was talking about $100,000 gold or million dollar gold back then. I mean, I used to talk about $5,000 gold. I mean, that was kind of, you know, now I'm talking higher. But the Bitcoin guys were like, you know, this is going to go to hundreds of thousands. You know, when people put their laser beams on their eyes, if you remember that, that was three years ago, the laser beams were to get Bitcoin to 100,000 at that time, right, when it was 50,000. Right. It's supposed to go. Look at Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor was the big, oh, yeah, you got to get into Bitcoin. Corporations need to put their balance sheet into Bitcoin. Michael Saylor is down on his Bitcoin. His average price is a little over 30,000. So he's down about 10% on the billions he put into Bitcoin. And he's not earning any interest. If he just would have left his money in the bank, he could be getting 5% interest. I mean, do you earn interest on gold? You don't earn interest on gold. No, but this is different, right? Saylor was the big guy saying all companies need to get rid of their cash and put it into Bitcoin because you can't earn any yield. Well, now you can earn 5% on your cash. You're still getting nothing on your Bitcoin. And the price is going down. Look at that fool up in El Salvador. You know, his average price for the Bitcoin he wasted the people's money on, he's in there over 40,000. Look at all the money that guy's lost. When did Michael Saylor first buy Bitcoin? Hold on, let's just quickly Google something. No, when he first bought it, it's lower. It doesn't matter when he first bought it, it's his average cost. All his Bitcoin he bought, he's down on it. When did Michael Saylor start? He first bought it, it was probably 20. Okay, hold on. Humor me for one second here. Let's go into this calculator here. He started buying it in 2020. So let's go to 2020 and let's end today. And let's say that you would have bought $100 a week of Bitcoin. That doesn't matter. He publishes his average cost of all the Bitcoin that he did in fact buy. It doesn't matter what you could have done. What matters is what he actually did. Okay, but one second. Let's just say that he would have done the same with gold. Okay, so he would have invested $18,700 and he would have got $26,845. Let's see if we can do the same thing with gold. I wonder if it will actually allow us to do it. It doesn't give you that option, unfortunately. He'd probably be better off had he bought gold. Certainly, the guy from El Salvador would have been better off had he bought gold than Bitcoin. No question about that. But part of the reason that Bitcoin went up was because Michael Saylor was buying it. His initial buying helped push up the price. That's the reason it went up, because he bought, he moved the market with his size. Where do you think Bitcoin would go if Michael Saylor tried to get out? Oh my God, that thing would collapse, especially if he let everybody know that he was going to get out. Yeah, I mean, there would be a $4 billion, I think he's got $4 billion worth of Bitcoin. I think he'd probably be a seller. Anyway, Peter, listen, we are running out of time. I want to just, I mean, I wasn't going to have a gold versus Bitcoin debate, but it landed up being that. What is the best trade for the next 12 months? So how do you position yourself for the next 12 months? You're talking about a potential collapse. I mean, you said buy gold, so I guess buy gold. What else would you do in the next 12 months? Well, what I think is going to happen over the next 12 months is that bond yields will continue to rise.
WTOP
"the next 12 months" Discussed on WTOP
"The next 12 months to 20 percent citing a slew of better than expected reports on the economy recently. Bank of America's net interest income rose 14 percent last quarter on higher mortgage and loan rates. Morgan Stanley's quarterly results were hurt 308 million dollars in severance costs after it cut more than 3 ,000 jobs this year. Home builders are more optimistic. Despite high mortgage rates, builder sentiment rose to the seventh straight month this month and is now at its highest level in a year. Single family house builders are also offering buyers fewer incentives, just 22 percent do now. The Dow rallied points 367 today, that is 1 percent. The S &P 500 up 108, both more than half percent gains. Jeff Kleebel, WTOP News. Money news brought to you by the Maryland Cannabis Administration. Hey Maryland, did you know cannabis products should always be kept locked and out of reach of children and pets? Be informed, be responsible, be safe. Visit cannabis .maryland .gov to learn more. up on Coming WTOP, we've had more Canadian wildfire smoke in our area. Are those fires starting to go out at all? We'll check on that. It's 412. These are emails filling your employees' inboxes, downloads beaming from device to device, and any one of them could be a cyber attack. Is it possible to keep your small
Bloomberg Radio New York
"the next 12 months" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Dual realities of slowing economic growth and higher fed funds rate. But at the same time, we've already seen a massive correction in stocks this year. When you throw out evidence like many people are going to cash, that's usually symptomatic of a bottom forming more than a top forming a tops in the equity market. Nobody's going to cash everybody has to have the equity market. They have to have that exposure. And sentiment, I do think is pretty consequential at bottoms in particular. So our view is, look, the fundamentals would suggest you're not going to get a ton of lift out of stocks over the next 12 months. But the technicals have emerged to suggest that sentiment is very grim, very, very dire with respect to the equity market outlook. And usually those points in times are pretty good points in time to add to risk. If I want to risk being a little bit early and what might be a move up over the next 12 months, where should investors look to kind of see some early signs. Small caps are historically a very good place to look at major equity market lows. What's really interesting about the most recent correction in large caps, it has not been replicated by small caps and small caps have corrected, but have corrected to higher lows, just like large caps have corrected to higher levels. So small caps are telling you that we are at least in a process of churning through some kind of major bottom here. I just learned so much in that 8 minutes. I know. That was awesome. Gina, thanks a lot. Boomer intelligence chief equity strategist, Gina Martin Adams. Coming up on the program as the Nord stream pipeline remained shut, how will it impact earnings in the Eurozone? You're listening to Bloomberg intelligence on Bloomberg radio providing in depth research and data on 2000 companies and a 130 industries, you can access Bloomberg intelligence through BI go in the terminal. I'm alix steel. And on Paul Sweeney, it's 13 minutes past the hour and this is blue. Circle is bringing together developers and entrepreneurs from around the world. Join us in San Francisco for circles converge 22 from September 27th to the 30th to
Bloomberg Radio New York
"the next 12 months" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens on December 20th This according to S&P Dow Jones indices Another losing weight for stocks to in a row a down Friday Wall Street closed out a volatile week with more losses after a mixed reading on the U.S. jobs market Jeff Rosenberg is senior portfolio manager at BlackRock The elephant in the room here is that this report doesn't have any of the COVID any of the issues that we still have in front of us so over the next ten days we're going to find out a lot more That's going to drive that debate into the fed meeting on the 15th BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg so it was a down Friday as for the market outlook from here Soviet subramanian is head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at B of a securities You know I don't want to sound too alarmist and I think you know we're not looking for massive downside big bear market but I do think the probability of a 10% correction in the near term or over the next 12 months is elevated And our market forecast is flat We're not looking for down market returns but over the next 12 months I think it's going to be a tough grind Savita subramanian head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BFA securities speaking with art Jonathan Farrell A down week two in a row for the S&P 500 Index this week falling by 1.2% the Dow this week down .9% NASDAQ was down 2.6% Today the S&P tumbled 38 points down 8 tenths the Dow was down two tenths of 1% NASDAQ today down 1.9% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take power by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie ballot this is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"the next 12 months" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Get his thoughts on these markets. How he's allocating capitals across asset classes, but first let's go to Greg Jared Bloomberg News and get a Bloomberg business slash great. Have a bit of a down day so far. Paul, the S and P and Dow are both down. European markets slipped as investors speculated eurozone policymakers may prepare to roll back stimulus. The greenback has traded higher for a second day amid rising bond yields and softer commodity prices. Patrick Armstrong, flurry Me wealth CEO tells Bloomberg with markets as high as they have been, he sees opportunities encyclicals. So I kind of like Moeller, Maris to Peg Lloyd Shipping bottleneck just saw Chinese exports were very strong. All the things big manufactured in China is getting shipped to the West. He's going to ship them, and freight rates are up 10 times. This is what they were. You're both They traded four and five times cash flow. Those are things that I think you're going to count outside profits from these companies over the next 12 months for sure, and probably much longer. Let's take a look at these markets, the S and P is down 3/10 of a percent right out down 14. The Dow's down three quarters of 1% down 261 and the NASDAQ is up 1/10 of a percent up 17. 10 Years down. 15 30 seconds with the yield of 1.37% West Texas Intermediate crude down 1.6% at 68 21 a barrel Comex gold down 1.9% of 17 98 50 announced the dollar Yan 1 10 20 the euro's dollar 18 46, the British found a dollar 37 85 Rocket lab US A competitive reveal, and musk SpaceX jumps more than 50%, adding over $2.3 billion in a steep four day rocket Like ascent, the stock hit a record high today. Soaring past marches record after the rocket makers popularity pick up on Reddit last week after positive posts. The Wall Street bets form. That's a Bloomberg business flights. Bloomberg markets continues now Paul Sweeney and Shonali basic. Alright.
News Radio 1190 KEX
"the next 12 months" Discussed on News Radio 1190 KEX
"Of the most important jobs the world's oceans have is soaking up Co. Two and storing it deep in the ocean, where it doesn't warm the atmosphere. But what's the best way to figure out how that job is being done? And how much energy is actually being absorbed? It's something Dr. Jamie Paultre, an associate professor of oceanography at the University of Rhode Island, wants to know We really would like to have a quantification of the ocean carbon dioxide uptake narrow so that we can make really skillful predictions of where climate is going. Dr Poulter is part of a team that's trying to find out how much carbon is absorbed and how heat is transported by the Gulf Stream. A big ocean currents off the east coast of the United States that transports warm water northward and what has become known as the great Ocean conveyor belts, the perfect place for the ocean to take up carbon dioxide, both because of the weather of the region. It's just so stormy second. Once it's taken up, I can sequester it for hundreds of years if it manages to sink in the deep Ocean. Dr. Paultre, along with a company called Sale drone will soon be launching 6 72 ft long unmanned drones off the East Coast. Those are very difficulties, particularly in the winter months. That's and hail Miller A C. The program executive officer for Impact Science and Sail drone. Once launched, the bright orange drones will spend the next 12 months criss crossing the Gulf Stream. The data will be fed back instantly to researchers on land via satellites. The mission has to focus is to better understand And how carbon is absorbed and to learn how the gold stream transports heat. Doctor Paultre and the University of Rhode Island will lead the carbon measurement aspect to learn how much carbon is being absorbed into the ocean, improving the accuracy on the number also where it gets absorbed by the ocean. What are the processes that the ocean takes it up? So we can understand whether this is going to be a set of processes that remain stable into the future. Or ones that could be vulnerable as the ocean warms and the circulation changes. Dr. Paul Sir says the Gulf stream intrigues her because the possible climate implications if the natural absorption process changes. If that process is slow down, the capacity of the ocean to store man made carbon could also slow down. These are important things we want to learn so that we can have accurate predictions of future climate. Hurricane Enrique caused only minimal damage. Turkey and Ida was the opposite,.
KOMO
"the next 12 months" Discussed on KOMO
"Of the most important jobs the world's oceans have is soaking up Co. Two and storing it deep in the ocean, where it doesn't warm the atmosphere. But what's the best way to figure out how that job is being done? And how much energy is actually being absorbed? It's something Dr. Jamie Paultre, an associate professor of oceanography at the University of Rhode Island, wants to know we really would like to have a quantification of the ocean Carbon dioxide uptake narrows that we can make really skillful predictions of where climate is going. Doctor. Paultre is part of a team that's trying to find out how much carbon is absorbed and how heat is transported by the Gulf Stream. A big ocean current off the east coast of the United States. The transports warm water northward in what has become known as the Great Ocean conveyor. About the perfect place for the ocean to take up carbon dioxide, both because of the weather of the region. It's just so stormy second. Once it's taken up, it can sequester for hundreds of years if it manages to think in the deep ocean. Dr Paultre, along with a company called Sale drone will soon be watching 6 72 ft long unmanned drones off the East Coast. Those are very difficulties, particularly in the winter months. That's an hail Miller racy, the program executive officer for Impact Science and Sail drone. Once launched, the bright orange drones will spend the next 12 months criss crossing the Gulf Stream. The data will be fed back instantly to researchers on land via satellites. The mission has to focus is to better understand how carbon is absorbed and to learn how the gold stream transports heat. Dr Paultre and the Universal Rhode Island will lead the carbon measurement aspect to learn how much carbon is being absorbed into the ocean, improving the accuracy on the number also where it.
RISE Podcast
"the next 12 months" Discussed on RISE Podcast
"Get out of which isn't true but that's what it feels like because of what we're coming off of so if we don't find a way to make change if we don't find a way to break this cycle if we don't find a way to move forward we're going to be caught in this endless cycle of anxiety and fear and lizard brain and there's always a problem and there's you have people counting on you. You have children. You have a business to run. You have a class to teach you have a church community to serve. You've impact to make in the world and you're struggling to find momentum again. You're struggling to find motivation. You're like where did that. Where did that version of me go. That version of you has to shift and change and the beauty is. You're going to be stronger on the other side of this but not if you stay stuck every second you stuck in this spot feeling this way drowning in these worries and this anxiety and the fear is making you weaker. It is why the next twelve months matter because that's what it's going to take to turn things around. It's going to take time. It's going to take dedication and focus and it matters so much because the next twelve months set up the next ten years and not everybody is ready and not. Everybody wants to make change and not everybody. Is that kind of person. Not every like so many people super down for whatever it is and you do you live your freaking life the way you wanna live it but if you're listening to this and you know that you are called to do more if you know that you're not behaving and going through life and being intentional and being centered in showing up for the people you love in the way that you want to then we need to shake it up. We need to do something and we need to get focused. So there's a few things you know. I gotta give your list. There's a few things that i think will help. And that. I want you to consider okay. The first thing that you need is a catalyst the first thing that you need is a catalyst you need in a if you're writing a script you need an inciting incident. You need something that happens. That turns your world upside down that shakes you off your access that shakes the dust up. That makes you pay attention. Maybe the catalyst this conversation. Right now maybe. The catalyst is a book that you read the catalyst could conference right like. I am huge believer in the power of a conference. And i have a conference mind. There are so many great conferences that can speak to the specific business. Your end to being an entrepreneur to like exactly what it is that you want to learn about i. The greatest catalyst of my life ever was a personal development conference. And it's why. I throw in every year the next conference we have is women only because there is an experience that happens when you're just in a group of women. I love men. I love my boys but we want to create a community of people who are like minded in sort of understand the social impact of being a woman and what it means to have a family and what it means to try and take care of all the things that is something that exists with rice conference. That i don't think happens elsewhere. But it is a catalyst. It's three full days of unpacking right day. One is all about your past unpacking literally what are the beliefs that you have. what limiting beliefs. What our pass trauma and experiences that have made you get to that place in the way that you view the world. What's the paradigm meaning. What's sort of the filter through which you see all of these things because if we can understand why we can start to shift that paradigm and we can change the way you see yourself so that cognitive dissonance doesn't show up and continue to make you play less than full out that stay one day two is all about your present. How do you take care of yourself in this day. How do you focus on your health so that you have energy so that you feel joy so that you're alive and ready to serve day. Three is all about your future. What are the goals that you're setting. Where are you going to go from here. that's my conference. There's literally hundreds of others that you can look into but do something do something big and i'm not saying financially big. Do something that feels like you shaking it up. That feels like you getting real. That feels like the leverage that you need to say. I'm not going back to say. Never again to say from now on i might i might fall but by god i am going to show up in this life not knowing what's happening not knowing how many times i'm going to give it not knowing what's going to happen with this virus my business my job my family but i am going to arm myself with what i need to be the person that i wanna be and to live the life i wanna live. You need a catalyst. The second thing that you need is a plan you can have all the excitement and momentum and driving the world but if you don't know where the hell you're going or how you're going to get there all of its going to peter out in fact if you've been to a conference before you might have experienced this if you've been to something before we get super fired up you're like yeah i'm gonna go take on you know the new year happens. You're like yeah. I'm going to get healthy. Whatever if you've experienced a moment where you were really pumps and then a month went by and you just sort of didn't have that energy anymore. It's because there was no plan to execute against you. Don't get to check in to your life occasionally if you wanna life. That's better if you want the life you know you're capable of living if you want to be the person the you know you're capable of being that looks like consistency every day. That looks like you vibrational being at a level of high energy and consistently showing up for your goals..
RISE Podcast
"the next 12 months" Discussed on RISE Podcast
"They really complete an ensemble and they're super comfy this spring. Stay light and breezy with the all birds tree runner. Find your pear at all. Birds dot com. Today that's a. L. l. b. i r. d. s. dot com. Are you finding it difficult to collaborate outside of a traditional office. Are your current tools in your workspace. Just not cutting it for you. Mirrow collaborative white boarding online platform created to help people visualize discuss and share work just like the whiteboard that hangs in your office consider mural blank slate where you and your team or friends can all work play or something in between you can write. Draw us videos sticky notes diagrams or audio to conceptualize your vision personally. I'm a visual person. So this has been a lifesaver for me. Since we've gone remote you know in terms of project planning can get all my team members in one place and we can brainstorm. Visualize their ideas using the sticky notes and inputting audio and video is super easy. Mira was creating a revolution in how we create and collaborate so join the over twenty million users. Today you can sign up and used miro today for free. Go to mirrow. That's m. i r. o. Dot com slash flow to start your free account. Sign up today and take advantage of the three free whiteboards with this exclusive offer. Go to mirrow. M. i r. o. Dot com slash flow. And start using mirrow. Today there's.
RISE Podcast
"the next 12 months" Discussed on RISE Podcast
"Growing up what did you. What were you taught to believe about health. What in momma tell you. What did daddy tell you. What did you hear from your aunts in your uncle's in the family around you. What did media tell you if you journal the same thing now. Maybe you're different than me. But i have in my head what my life would be like if i was living in the most optimum beautiful health ever but if i journal what i was taught about health growing up it's abysmal. It's a business model. And so if. I'm not conscious of those things that are below the surface if i'm not conscious of what is shaping my paradigm in the way that i see the world then. I'm always going to be an opposition with the action. That i'm taking right so like i'll go. I can go workout in the gym. But if i believe that my family just isn't healthy. We're just not athletes. We don't have the stamina. We're just not runners like all of these things that we you. My friends like grow up hearing. That's dick's and you will self sabotage. All of these things is flow chart that i'm describing for you all of it is like self sabotaging two like why you are making the choices. I'm making the choices that were making so the reason that i'm saying that the next year the next twelve months matters most matters. Most of your life is like you are not still listening to this podcast or watching this on youtube. If there isn't something in your gut telling you like yeah. I have regressed. Yeah i'm not where i wanted to be. Yeah it's not going back in. I don't know what to do about it like it matters. Most because it's not gonna stop being hard.
RISE Podcast
"the next 12 months" Discussed on RISE Podcast
"Just lit a match. And maybe you kept yourself going telling yourself someday win. The world goes back to normal someday win. We have a vaccine. I felt like that. Oh well when we have a vaccine. It'll be okay. I worried about my grandparents for over a year over year. So stress about me mom papa they got cove it after we had vaccines like what the hell someday win. The world goes back to normal. Someday win we're able to have conferences in person again someday. Win this when that win. It's summertime when it's back to school like it's the idea of like it'll be better. Win is freaking dangerous thinking dangerous you guys it really is because we cling to some future possible ideal state that will never come and normally if this was like pre co my response right now will be like you ha but you have to find a way today like you can't wait till tomorrow with you. You gotta be able to make this change in this moment. Not the not like. That is what i would have preached to you pre covert. But i'm not preaching that after eighteen months of feeling like we're all drowning because that's not going to serve any of us all that's gonna do to me is making me feel shame and from a place of shame. We can't do anything concrete. I'm not gonna talk to you about like finding the will you know or finding the motivation. I'm not gonna talk to you about that. I think it's more powerful for you to understand. And i hope that this is what this time. This conversation is giving. You is just reflection of. Are you doing any of these things. Are you having any of these patterns because the stress led to old bad habits led to old limiting beliefs which leads to cognitive dissonance. right now. maybe you've heard this term before. Maybe this is a new one for you. I guarantee you know maybe the idea of this. If you haven't ever heard the actual psychological term for it but cognitive dissonance is basically the idea. That human beings are incapable of easily acting in a way that is an opposition with their belief system. So we talked about this idea that your belief is certainty in these thoughts that you have and it's really dangerous when it comes to our belief in self are limiting beliefs or who we perceive ourselves to be. We will not act in opposition of who we believe ourselves to be. It is a subconscious thing. It is why we self sabotage if you've experienced self sabotage financially with your health with your relationships if you've ever looked back and been like. Oh my gosh. That relationship was going so well. Why do i always like. Why does this always happen. Why does it always turn bad or like man. I really was like doing well financially of starting to make money. I was starting to pay my bills. I'm like everything went wrong. You will always act with who you perceive and believe yourself to be cognitive dissonance. I think i wrote down the definition. Yes cognitive dissonance is beliefs clashing with new actions or new information. So if you believe yourself to be a oh. I think that i still like all of this stuff. I'm like oh. I still on some level have some belief system about when i am stressed that i will comfort myself with food. I- y'all have heard me talk about this so much binge eating in the past and and being triggered in All of it and i have worked. Oh my word for fifteen years to get past it and that chits started creeping back in binging started creeping back in all of these things which makes me. I'm like oh that's still there like it was top down deep inside but with the erosion of like i said these walls. These sort of shaky castle walls is starting to bubble back up cognitive dissonance. Is you having this idea for a business that you want to start. But you can't get yourself to do it because deep down you believe you're not smart or that you know it'll always fail or it'll always go wrong. Here's a really quick idea. And this is something you can do in journaling but one of the ways i like to see like what do i really believe about. Something is to ask myself like. let's say health. Health is a great example. So let's say you're journaling. And you're like if i was living in optimum health if i was taking care of my health emotionally physically nutritionally if i was living my life where i wanted to feel really great. I wanted to have energy. It wasn't about how he looked. It was about how i felt. And i really took care of myself if you were to journal like if i was living extraordinary healthy life. Then this is what my life would look like. What do i believe it would be like if i was having this really healthy life right. What i believe. Health is like great. Health is fill in the blank right and people can write done all sorts of positive things like you know. Energy focus dr happiness. Joy time with my kids. All those things that we believe. We would experience if we were at our optimum health. That's what we think. That's sort of like surface level. That's what we believe about that topic. But then if i ask myself okay.
RISE Podcast
"the next 12 months" Discussed on RISE Podcast
"I s e just go to ziprecruiter dot com slash rise ziprecruiter the way to hire now. I assume fewer hanging out with me that you're all up in personal development world. But i'll just walk you through it if you're not familiar a belief whether that's political religious self. The world is the earth flat like a belief. Is you having certainty that something is true. That's a belief your certainty on a topic is your belief and that shows up for you in a million different ways you you know maybe capital t. Truth to you is. Jesus is the son of god. That is your belief. Maybe you believe in buddha. Allah confucius of the torah. The what you know that you are die hard democrat that your die hard republican. That's your belief it is certainty in what you believe and beliefs can be really dangerous really harmful to us as human beings when we care more about the certainty than the truth. Oh we all have minute for that when we care more about being right in our beliefs then we care about what is actually true and real so a belief is your certainty in this thing that you think a limiting belief is something that you believe about yourself that actually makes it so that you can't achieve the thing you want to achieve that it slows. You down it hampers you. It makes it harder anything. That's a limiting your growth as a person your ability to do great things in the world. That's a limiting belief. And i feel like this is the term in personal development that most people roll their eyes about because we will goule limiting beliefs. Like you know y like whatever. They just are super judgy about that word because they're like well. Maybe it's really true that like you shouldn't start a business or maybe it's really true. It's like no bro. Like if you have a dream in your heart and you feel really passionate about that idea. A limiting belief is often like i'm not smart enough. I'm not connected enough. I'm not thin enough young enough old enough to pursue my dream. Well that's limiting you. It doesn't serve you to believe that and there are people who will say no says. That's the truth. She is too young to do that thing. He isn't smart enough to have that dream to have that goal. But if it's not serving you that belief system y cling to it because are thousands and thousands of people who are living in opposition of the thing that you believe. They're they're like. Oh well i come from this neighborhood and from this neighborhood like nobody nobody i. There are people who can represent both sides of that truth there you every day of the week you can find someone who story confirms what you believe or isn't opposition of what you believe. So if it's a limiting belief it means limiting your potential and there's power in understanding what the other side of it is but when we experience these anxious times when we experience the stress it reignites old limiting beliefs. Because there's shame that happens in in old bad habits and it brings back up stuff. And i'm saying this to you because as i'm going through it i'm not even conscious of it happening and this is what i do for a living and if i'm not conscious that all this crap is bubbling up for me. What are you not conscious of right. Now what are you feeling like. You don't have the motivation that you want or you're not taking care of yourself healthwise or your business has dropped off or you're not doing the sales that you wanted to do this month like these things are going lower and lower and you're telling yourself that it's happening because of those old limiting beliefs. Yep i knew it. I wasn't smart enough. Yep i knew it. I don't know numbers. Yep i knew it you know. I can't be a good mom and run a company at the same time we buy into the bullshit and it keeps us where we are keeps us stuck. It's also so discouraging for those of you who are working so hard to try and like figure it out and make a way for your family and you have people counting on you even when you're keeping your head above water. It still feels like you're drowning for a lot of us. We've kept our heads above water for eighteen months or two years three years and we're really freaking good at keeping your head above water but we're exhausted. That's where i think we're at right now. And i think that everything that just happened really shined a light on fissures and cracks. That were already there. My stress didn't start in cove it. My stress started honestly in twenty eighteen in two thousand eighteen. I'm just like mom working. Mom going about my life and i have a book explode and the world explodes around me and it was so it was such a blessing and it was so freaking overwhelming and i was on the road for over year. And there's no preparation for that. I am not complaining. I'm telling you my story. And i'm telling you my sore because i know you have your version of this. You have your version of extreme stress that started before cove it that started before lockdown and the extreme stress was like gasoline.
RISE Podcast
"the next 12 months" Discussed on RISE Podcast
"Burn out i just stopped doing that. Tripled down on making sure that i was emotionally processing stress. Thought i was. Because what i did was went back to my regular habits. That's what it is. I'm like making this connection in my mind right now. The world sort of started to open back up and we got to go to restaurants again and we got to travel again. You know this is after the first of the year. And i started to feel like it was sort of normal and so i went back to my normal habits. My normal routine. My normal ritual thinking that we were sort of normalizing but i immediately started to fill the effects because the stress level didn't change. I'm just having this clarity with you right now in real time. I didn't stop doing the things. But i stopped being so conscious and so intentional about like making sure that i was really living that and then obviously now. My stress feels like it's stronger. It's more and is some of the stuff i talked about the psychologist. I fell like i couldn't focus. I felt really easily distracted. Obviously my anxiety was coming back in a greater way. I really felt like not motivated. I really felt like. I lost momentum. I really started to feel these things. And then how i process. This is usually being really mad at myself. Like how did we get here. How why are we like. Why come on try harder work harder. I know it's not healthy. I'm any graham three. Like i get it but i just felt all this stuff slipping and then i started. Slipping back into bad coping mechanisms. Only i couldn't see them as bad so the world i'm using air quotes guys. The world opened back up. But didn't you know it hasn't like really but in a lot of ways we got to do things we weren't able to do and because we hadn't been able to go anywhere like my girlfriends and i were like let's go to dinner. Let's go get drinks. Let's go do these things. And so i started drinking more. And then i started eating off. Like how i would normally eat and i was frigging living it up because i was like. I haven't been able to go anywhere in so long and that ended up becoming sort of this. This like springboard for now. That's not just happening outside my house. Now i'm kinda like pulling into weeknights. And i started drinking more and i really didn't see that stuff until i was going through this process and i was like. Oh wow like i pre- covert. I would have like maybe one or two drinks a week like all. My drink of choice is a vodka lacroix. And i'm a pretty big lightweight. But i would like have one and maybe i finish. Maybe i didn't like that was it. And then now is at the place. Absolutely in lockdown. I had a cocktail every frigging day. And then i'm like okay. Nominee have a cocktail in half. And now i'm having to and i have struggled with that in the past. If you read go wash your face you know. That was an issue for me as a young mother. And so then i find myself doing it again and the shame spiral starts again. Like how did we get back here. Why it's like get get off this train. Like what are you doing. But i just felt like you know. There's an old saying that like humans only make decisions to get pleasure or avoid pain. That's it it just comes down. Every single decision you make is for pleasure or to avoid pain and in fact you will always choose to avoid pain more than you'll choose. Pleasure like avoiding pain is actually a stronger catalyst for us to make change in our life but if you can find something that manages to do both stressful crazy day and you can have a vodka lacroix which will help you to avoid pain. So you're gonna come out a little bit for a little stress and you're going to have some pleasure simultaneously beauty both of those at one time. Hot damn it's really easy for that to become a habit in your life really fast because it's serving both of those needs at once so those patterns which started to show up for me inside of this anxiousness stress all of these feelings then like imagine. This is like a flow chart. And i'm like take you guys down thing with me so we all experienced this insane stress. We start having symptoms of the stress affecting us long term. We start many of us to fall into old bad habits and or develop new bad habits and that starts to reignite old limiting beliefs.
RISE Podcast
"the next 12 months" Discussed on RISE Podcast
"Who are in their eighties me. Mom and papa both have cove it and are in the hospital and my mom is like trying to take care of everybody. And how do you care for older citizens who are who have covert in. You can't end like she's taking time off work and it's like just it feels like it hasn't stopped being hard like they'll be a day or a week where it will start to feel like okay. We're gaining on this. We're we're we're and then it'll be like you know has cove it and of course that's what it feels like now if feels like of course. That's what it is of course. My friend is struggling. Of course this thing has happened. Of course and i. This is the definition of post traumatic stress disorder. Ptsd which i have had. Since i was fourteen years old and it manifests for people in different ways and obviously there is trauma that you can go through that is so much more horrific but for all of this what i want you to hear me say right now is that. Ptsd feels like there's always a level hopefully low but sometimes very high there's always a level of anxiety that part of our brain the lizard part of our brain. That only has one job which is to keep us alive. One job keep keep us alive. There's three parts of our brain. There's lizard brain the mammal brain. There's a human like look it up. The most like basic part of us has one job which is stay alive and if you have felt threatened threatened financially or emotionally which we all have as a global community of people. There's been fear anxiousness. People have died. People are sick. We've lost businesses. We've lost jobs like relationship. So much has happened. What that does is it puts the lizard part of your brain. The stay alive part now. That's leading out. That's constantly looking for danger constantly. Now when we were cavemen that part of your brain kept you. Alive was constantly looking for the sabertooth tiger. That was going to eat you. What that looks like today is that you are anticipating the bad stuff. You're anticipating the world falling out from undue you're anticipating the worst and if you learned about manifestation or what we put out into the world or any of that what you look for you will find and like i am preaching to myself right now. I freaking do this for a living. All i've done for decade is try and learn and sort of like okay. How can i do this better. And then end up sharing it with you guys like. Hey this is what i learned. And what but even. I am having to relearn this stuff because i feel like it has been eroded i've sort of it's like all of the stress of the last. Eighteen months has scratched away and sort of peeled away. All of the walls that i built up to hold boundaries and to keep my self centered and calm and like all those habits. All those rituals. They're not gone but their shaky. They're not gone but they're solid. It's like you know we're a castle. I dunno medieval time period and this force this invading army. This whatever has rolled up to the castle with like those. You can't see me if you're listening. I've tried to like what is it like a catapult like you know where they would like soup rocks steaks. They do everything to try to break down the walls of the castle. That's what i feel like right now. I'm still standing. And i'm so proud of the fact that i'm still standing your still standing your here. You're listening to this. You're still going but it's just shaky. It's not a solid as it. once was and in. The state of heightened anxiety heightened fear. I am anticipating things going wrong. And maybe they will. That's freaking life. Maybe things will continue to go wrong. But i promise you that it is not serving me. It is not serving my team at work. it is not taking care of. My children is not helping me. Have impact create content. Be creative like it doesn't serve me in any way because honestly if bad shit happens i'll deal with it. If bad shit happens you'll deal with. It doesn't mean it won't be hard but it is way harder to experience like a month of worrying over something and then the thing happens that you lost that whole month and in fact if you really think about it right now if you ask yourself how much anxiety have you had compared to the actual manifestation of the thing you were anxious about. It's not even close meaning most of the time we're worried about stuff. That doesn't even happen. The things that really throw us off the things that we never anticipated. So how this affects us. Is one like heightened anxiousness which is nowhere to live. Because what happens. What happened for me. Whatever my girlfriend today is that we hit that point in time where we realize that it was still hard. That nine months have gone by ten months. Eleven months and it's still a mess. It's still pivot pivot again and figure it out and work harder and do more and you know all of this stuff and at some point i.
WBUR
"the next 12 months" Discussed on WBUR
"This is here. And now the U. S. Census data is out in one of the big stories emerging from those numbers is how the country's shifting population will send a pretty seismic wave through American politics. Over the next decade. Let's bring in Derek Thompson. He's a staff writer for the Atlantic A Derek Hey, you gonna be here? Good to have you and I know you've long been thinking about the way demographic shifts are changing cities from coast to coast. But now we're getting data that's showing how those ships could actually affect political power happens once a decade. Obviously with the census, what do you seeing in those numbers? Yeah, I want to talk about both what we've known and what we learned this week. So here's what we've known for the last decade or so. The Sunbelt States, especially those with large, Metro's, like Texas and Florida and Georgia, North Carolina have been gaining population while the Northeast and the Great Lakes states talking Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York They've been losing population, so that big story has been that Americans are moving toward son and space toward the Sun Belt and the West. What we get this week is a snapshot of where Americans are now and what we've learned essentially is that as we assumed people have been leaving these states, which, frankly have been more bloom or Democratic leaning And they're moving to Florida, North Carolina, Texas. These are states that have added a congressional apportionment on big picture here is that maybe Democrats should be a little bit concerned that the electoral math the congressional map, which already I was a little bit dicey, for them, is getting even more difficult because of These tides of American migration. Okay, that is a very interesting point. And if you look at President Biden's electoral college victory in 2020, and if you were to lay over, you know the changes in the census. That we just saw this week over President Biden's Electoral College win in 2020 his narrow of victory, His margin of victory would be actually quite a bit smaller. Yeah, right. So by anyone 306 electoral votes if you had the exact same votes cast, but you changed the math. Based on what we just learned from the census. He would have only 1 300 three's. We would have lost three electoral votes. That's because Biden won New York and Pennsylvania and Michigan and Illinois. All of those states have now lost a congressional seat. Because people have been leaving those states. They've been moving mostly to the south into the West. So The upshot here is that the Electoral College, which already advantaged Republicans is now looking even worse for Democrats. The reason here isn't that anything illegal has happened. But rather the Democrats have a habit of concentrating themselves into cities they dominate in San Francisco. They dominate in New York, but they lose barely in states in suburbs and rural areas. That were people are moving to sew his result. You have the situation where Democrats are over concentrated in coastal metro's, and they're not ideally spread for their political power throughout the country. How do you think that might change the dynamics in some of the upcoming elections? The midterms next year and the presidential race in 2024? With a really important lesson here is that local elections shape national elections. Republicans control the redistricting process in Florida and Texas and other states because they tend to dominate and down ballot elections. They tend to do very well in state legislature elections, and so you have a situation where Americans are moving to states. Where Republicans control the map making process. They control the redistricting process and as result, there are fears the Republican legislatures will redraw these district's such that they will be advantaged in upcoming elections. That is adding to Democrats. Anxiety is they look at this census report. Derek. Some of the political fights over redistricting were already pretty intense in this country. What do you think they're gonna look like this time around? I think that the combination of the hyper polarization of absolutely at everything. Plus what we discovered from this census on dis congressional reapportionment is going to create quite a large fight throughout the country we already saw and I've already come on in the show to talk about, you know just how controversial George's voting rights law, Awas Well the rights of people to vote in the rights of people to have districts drawn such that they feel like they have. You know, an equal say in their elections is going to be amplified. I think by by this story, so I would expect that redistricting s so called Jerry Mandarin is absolutely going to be a story for the next 12 months. I'm thinking about the results of the 2020 election. What we saw happen in Georgia. What we saw happen in Arizona, where the demographic shifts we've been talking about may have been the main difference. Handing those states to Joe Biden to a Democrat. What do you think is in store and they don't have too much time here. But what's in store over the next decade? Do you think in terms of population ships and demographic changes? Well, I'm really interested in what's happening in some of the deepest blue states. You look a place that California, which lost a congressional seat for the first time in its history, New York now has fewer members of Congress than any year since 18 10. That's not a typo, 18 10. Last time, New York had so few members of Congress, the leader of France was Napoleon, the first So the big story here is that people are moving towards sun in space that is reshaping the political math and of Democrats want to be competitive nationwide. They have to think outside of urban cores and be competitive in the sunny Sunday lots of America. Derek Thompson, staff writer for the Atlantic. Thank.
News-Talk 1400 The Patriot
"the next 12 months" Discussed on News-Talk 1400 The Patriot
"S. The massive storm could create blizzard like conditions. It's also expected to cause travel problems for the next few days. There's been a military takeover in me and Mar correspondent Chris Blake reports the military plans to run the country for at least the next 12 months this morning in Myanmar. There were reports early on of senior members of the government, including state councilor on San Souci, the country's defacto leader were being detained by the military. Those reports were later confirmed. The military own TV station, how to present her. Come on, read an announcement, saying that the military was going to be taking control of the country for the next year. The U. S and countries around the world are condemning the developments in Myanmar. In Russia More than 5000 people have been detained by police after tens of thousands took to the streets yesterday, demanding the release of jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny. The price of silver is rallying as the online trading movement that fueled the rise of game stop in a M C last week is now targeting the precious metal. Silver futures jumped more than 10% earlier today following strong gains. Over the weekend. More on these stories at town hall dot com. Tell me why really factor is so successful in lowering or eliminating pain? I'm often asked that question. Beatings have child. But the father and son, founders of relief actor tell me they believe our bodies were designed to heal. The doctors who formulated really factor selected the four best ingredients 100% drug free ingredients.