15 Burst results for "TES Lombard"
"tes lombard" Discussed on Money For the Rest of Us
"They're paying ten times more now for shipping than they ever have. Then you've had challenges with the rail system. Canadian wildfires disrupted rail operations in canada bringing down timber union pacific had so many containers stuck at their chicago rail yard. They were completely overwhelmed. We don't know how long this will last. It will have an impact on inflation. Consumer price index was already up over five percent year over year but now with the cost of shipping is so much greater. It's likely to be passed on in higher. Good prices now. This could be another year and a half or more like roxanne. Thomas suggested but we don't know stephen blitz. He's the chief economist at tes. Lombard said there is no more transitory price than transportation because the capacity can expand and shrink but the ships the container ships already running at full capacity as are the ports and it takes two to three years to bring a new ship online. Bloomberg's brendan murray summed. It up really well and this was the theme that we discussed back in episode. Three twenty three. The economy is not a machine he wrote. The system underpinning globalization production on one side of the planet connected to consumers on the other by truck ships planes. Cranes and forklifts is too rigid to absorb. Today's rolling tremors from cova nineteen or to recover quickly from jolts to consumer demand or the labor force. It's avoided a complete collapse only through a combination of human ingenuity painfully long hours strategy. Mixed with a stroke of luck. The system was over. Optimized there was not sufficient slack. And when you had a spike in demand impacts on transportation supply the global supply chain it almost broke and we have shortages of everything that is feeding in to higher inflation. Now where there's a shortage of goods. There's also a shortage of employees in the most recent release for july the us bureau of labor statistics reports. There are ten point nine million job openings. The most ever the job opening rate which is two percent of open jobs divided by the total filled and open jobs. It's at six point. Nine percent the highest in decades. The previous high i saw was in january. Twenty nine hundred ninety four point seven percent. The number of layoffs from companies is the lowest in decades. They don't wanna lose their workers and it isn't just lower paid workers job openings for business professionals is the highest ever going back to two thousand two..
"tes lombard" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Monocle Daily
"This is the monocle daily. I'm andrew miller. And i am joined today by jonathan fenby chairman of china research and director of european political research tes lombard and by alex councilman historian and author alex. First of all welcome back. This is your first time back since before the unpleasantness. It's very exciting to be in studio again andrew. i have to say it's a nice fear and human beings. You are one of those insufferable people who did use the time to actually wrote a book which you may now lavishly plug because i believe it is available in stores. It is irish. Who'd fallen idols. Twelve statues that made history Inspired somewhat by events during the pandemic of course when steve alford costume was brought down in bristol. Universal tomasi fuss about pulling down touches in a racing history so i decided to write a book looking at that question over the course of history And at least allowed me during the pandemic when we're all kind of stuck it our houses at least to sort of mentally travel the world he even if not physically at that point out now will bookshelves are able to reassure listeners that i have actually read attend everything and it's really good. A nice should by jonathan. Have you written a book since you will ask to know. But i am writing another book on franz excellent. Mum had modern his the the fifth. Republican france. Wins that out can you. I haven't started. I'll i'll tell you when it's when it's out okay. Well we will then move seamlessly from defenestrate statues and unwritten histories of france to belarus Because russian president vladimir putin is today hosting in moscow one of the dwindling cohort of heads of state who can challenge him as an obdurate overstay alexander lukashenko of belarus advance notices suggested that among the subjects up for discussion will be the further integration of the two countries however whatever further integration ends up serving as a euphemism for it's nice to at least see russia pretending to ask nicely before it amex's invades or otherwise sub wounds. Another of its neighbors. Jonathan this is a bit of a hardy. Perennial the idea of russia and belarus amalgamating with debatable levels of consent from one of those two parties. Is it ever really going to happen. Well it's it's as you say it's been there in theory for a long long time There is What's called a union state or state of union. I think more union state between minsk and moscow who between the two countries which has never really been Brought to fruition as it were And i think both sides are playing what advantage they can get and that may continue for a long time. I mean alex is look shaneco talking here from any kind of position of strength because there was a period euro two ago where he was trying to play both ends against the middle he was doing things like ostentatiously hosting us secretary of state. Mike pompeo in minsk inviting forty two commando of the royal marines to come and visit for exercises buying oil from norway and so on however in more recent months he has kind of blown it vis-a-vis the entire western world does. He realized that he doesn't actually have much in the way of options. Where friends are concerned. Well that might of course be. What's behind this. Because actually in twenty twenty four relations between russia and belarus being in this bit shakey There was accusations between lukashenko puritan selena what they were both doing to each other and so forth. and you know who is fixing your sending in Sort of subversive elements and all of this and then actually now. We're saying this sort of new friendship thing. Which i think you may well have been ilam ahead. There in terms of lukashenka possibly not be all that popular in the west anymore after visiting belarus and actually thinking well okay hold on Gotta have somewhere because you know. We're not the biggest nation and guess he's next door. So i mean i as as jonathan says they have been sort of united since one thousand nine theoretically and that was actually pre putin and then putin was actually initially not very happy about wants that to be a rather different union than it was And so perhaps i think he's sort of source a closer relationship Which is what this would be. But it is complex. I mean the other point even which is upset. You right is that lukashenko has been longer than putin. He's been in power since ninety four percent. Of course only coming in and ninety nine thousand nine so actually he still the new boy this i. I think i think it would be a bold. Move on looker. Schenk owes part troy patronizing Putin at this point jonathan. How concerned might putin of being no by events in belarus. In recent months. I mean on the one hand lukashenko is still in charge but on the other hand those demonstrations against him were no small change and they don't appear to have ended yet. No obviously there is still a strong Undercover of feeling against him in the country. I think from everything you say. And i think it's going from what you're saying The putin will be very careful about not tying himself to closely to a pretty erratic dictator overboard who might drag him into trouble In an area part of the world where putin wants to be boss just a final quick thought on this alex the lost time this. This weese was seriously floated. It was the idea that putin might be thinking about this in order to get around. Russian presidential term limits. The the line was that he was coming up to the end of eastenders president of russia however if there was a new country called russia and belarus that would be a whole thing obviously since then he has taken more orthodox means to basically installed himself as president for life but is there any aspect of closer union with belarus that would appeal to his sense of a russian imperial grandeur perhaps because there is a conventional wisdom that their various expeditions into ukraine. Enjoyed your actually play. Quite well With a cohort of the russian public. Yeah i think there's probably is a bit of an element of that. And i mean that was one of his very early suggestions for how the union should operate is that it should be federal perhaps even is said something more like the european union burger kind of eastern version of that Now you know putin came up through the soviet union. That's the world that he knew. And that's the world where he is a kgb operative in a really sort of cut his teeth And i think that many people have his generation era was kind of very disappointed with that apart. So i mean you know and opportunities rebuild some kind of power base. Not to be sniffed at well. Let's move along This coming saturday. September eleventh and i am not making any of this up for me. Us president donald trump will be at the hard rock casino in hollywood florida. Providing commentary for a four fight boxing card headlined by evander holyfield and oscar de la. Hoya the option of tuning into trump's call of the bouts. He's all yours for just.
"tes lombard" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Monocle Daily
"Daily coming to you from our studios here at midori house. In london landry miller. My guests remained in nevada and jonathan. Fenby will be here to discuss all the day's big stories and we'll have the latest installment of this week series looking ahead to mayoral elections looming across the north american continent. Stay tuned all that and more coming up right here on the monocle. Daily in association with eliane monocle twenty four. This is the monocle daily. I'm andrew and i am joined today by and divide journalist author and documentary maker and by jonathan fenby chairman of china research and director of european political research at tes lombard. Hello to you both Jonathan listeners will be by now accustomed to hearing you on the daily any more from you shortly. But we haven't had you he for ages. What have you been doing since whenever the hell. The last time was i did. Cover the nine hundred seventy nine hostage crisis by the way that is true. That was on our acclaimed foreign affairs series the foreign desk. This is the daily. We're talking about it's a whole other thing Yeah been quite busy actioning. Making dogs made one in iraq about sheer militia assassinations. Iranian-backed schindler's assassinations. That was last year and this year about rapist indian politicians. Okay but you have also just before we move onto the next subject. You have also reported from afghanistan. I have i went once in two thousand five I bought a ticket Completely on spur of the moment on in a travel agent in tehran and turned up afghanistan. Thinking it would be. Like tehran really wasn't anything like tehran. At a few hundred dollars in my pocket and stayed in a hotel that turned out to be a brothel and i went back in two thousand and ten to make it up community for channel. Four well that will shortly come in very useful because whether us president. Joe biden admitted as much or not. There is little doubt that one of the factors guiding his judgment regarding america's withdraw from afghanistan wolves at the american public had long since lost interest in it ironic then the chaotic and hasty nature of america's departure has parked afghanistan back among the headlines. Who however is going to be able all willing to report on the new regime taliban two point owes line is that they welcome the operation of private independent media as long as it quote does not work against national values unquote. Whatever that should turn out to mean on yesterday's globalist monocle. Twenty four hours flagship news programme host. Emma nelson spoke to the pulitzer prize winning afghan photographer massoud husseini who just escaped his home country for the netherlands and asked him what those photographers and journalists left behind. Might be going through. Unfortunately everybody that. I no doubt trying to get out the country photographer journalists activists and it'd be older part of the democracy actually. Let's say that we had in afghanistan and was a very is coming out is what the taliban tried to use it like. I mean using mobile phones for propaganda. The pictures that they sent the videos that they sent under social media is what they do. It said ingenious like the picture. The video came out from the airport that the young people are trying to get into the u. s. plane that said completely Video and picture from afghanistan after the us and the president had ne- lift afghanistan. So this is what they want to show that. This is the chaos right now. And if you want to be a this chaos to be controlled then you need to kind of recognize our emirate and then renamed to rule in the way that we want. that was the pulitzer prize. Winning afghan photographer masud husseini. Speaking to milton on yesterday's globalist. To first of all how confident to you about the talibans promises to actors guarantors of a free press. I'm laughing not confident at all The interviews with the spokespeople have been quite interesting. Actually because they're being asked about executions and public maiming. They have said well. We will follow the rule of law. It depends what their interpretation of the law is And i was listening to interview today when The presenter of this radio show Ask the taliban. Spokesperson said to paul on spokesperson. When he said by the way you know we had the rule of law before we will have it again when people say this is taliban the second version of the taliban while were the same guys. Good guys and the reporter said well. What about public executions. And he said well if somebody has merited Has done has committed a crime that merits being executed while then he will be executed He said in so many words so of course you know in the taliban exactly known for being the most honest of players so of course. We can't believe anything they say. And also i would like to point out that while they have said that they're going to keep women's safe and women are going to be able to work ready reports coming in A well-known afghan television presenter has been told not to go into work We mustn't forget that since two since the peace still so since twenty twenty in the last year dozens of female journalists activists have already been killed. It's already started. And it started longtime ago jonathan. I was myself on the receiving end of the the press operation of taliban one point zero when i first went to afghanistan in nineteen ninety eight they did have a sort of setup they did issue official taliban press cards they did have a taliban press officer. Who would sit you down on. Read you out the extremely long list of things that you would not be allowed. Do or see yourself while you were in afghanistan and so forth but that was a different world in which they did control all the information coming in and certainly going out of afghanistan. they don't and they can't anymore. Are they going to have to adjust to a new media landscape. Well the way you stop information getting out is by getting rid of the journalists who are sending it out and Applying the kind of legal structure that we've just hearing about to say so you can say oh. Well we're just applying the law. That's all and you've got to apply you've got to deal with all this is happening In many parts of the world. I mean not to go into a what about ism but For instance in hong kong the moment the national security law is being applied basically as the government of hong kong and beijing wanted to be applied and in that kind of situation journalists are. Let's face it. Powerless roommates ave our hard and fast rules. I guess for as a journalist how you can or should operate at a moment like this is being in afghanistan where things have changed dramatically and quickly one power structure has been replaced by another and inbetween times. There is that we'd interregnum which which most journalists will run across at some point where no one's really in charge. It's an odd moment. Yeah and also as you may have experienced before strangely exciting which is quite inappropriate. That fine line between exciting and outright terrifying. Yeah well it. You know what i've seen journalists already come under fire for getting things wrong and i think an but by the way i would like to point out. Female journalists have been pilloried for the what. They're wearing ready that actually they're being told to covered up so there's one particular journalist who's been she had. She's had a really hard time because she's wearing of buyer and a full head scarf covering where as the afghan women themselves a still pretty lax when it comes to their covering the not wearing the full islamic garb. And they're certainly not wearing an abaya which is no which is not enough ghanistan thing But already i'm seeing that night. You know it makes me angry especially for women operating there especially for bond foreign women. It's no easy and you're gonna get things wrong and wh- as you say whether there is this power vacuum you're not quite sure. Should you be making a standard not covering up and being know studying solidarity with afghan women or should you be looking after yourself because as you said. It is quite terrifying. And if you're six foot blond woman you are going to. You know with kids back at home. You're going to want to keep safe. Jonathan in your long experience of journalism of all kinds of view sort of developed any ideas..
"tes lombard" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast
"Welcome to investment ideas. I'm the host today. Ed harrison for real vision. I the distinct pleasure of talking to dario perkins who's managing director of macro at tes. Lombard welcomed real visioned area high. Nice to see you know i. I called you dario before because just as we were talking we're talking about The correct italian pronunciation but We're going to continue on with the anglo saxon pronunciation for the rest of the time here. Now dairy. Oh you and i. We're going to be talking about a regime shift. That's happening I think it's apropos. Because just yesterday. Were taping this here on thursday april the twenty ninth just yesterday. A we saw the president of the united states Talk about what he wants to do for the united states. And it is an astonishing Change a market shift in terms of how we're thinking about the role of fiscal policy at all times That's how i see it. How do you see. Do you think this is a regime shift. And if it is What's it shifting from. I think it's massive. I mean this is the biggest change in economics. You know. I've seen since. I started doing economics in the late nineteenth And it's really a generational change. No we have Young economists coming through he see the world very differently. And you starting to see that being reflected in policy and for the last twelve months i spent a lot of time talking with investors about regime changes and there will focused on monetary policy. There will focused on the fed and is the fed going to allow inflation overshoots. Its target and is it going to focus on employment rather than inflation all of that stuff but they really been looking in the wrong place because we're now in a welder fiscal dominance. This is a wild west fiscal policy. Not monetary policy this. That could change things going forward. No the fed nava central banks. They can accommodate this. But it's really down to fiscal policy to make a difference. And i think from the policy response to this crisis. You really looking for two things you're looking. Can we get back to where we were before this crisis which is a question of scarring and the damage that the crisis may have done to the economy. And then you looking well if we do go back to where we were. Is this. just the old cycle also. I wasn't very good now. It was the new media. It was secular stagnation Can we do better than that. And i think with this massive fiscal program that you're getting from biden in the us. It's really not just an attempt to to to fight off scarring and get back to where you were. It's a it's a. It's a chance to change the trajectory of the economy going clawed. And we need the weld. Just doing this in the. Us isn't going to be enough. We need this in in germany. We go the jammie elections coming up towards the end of the now that could be a raging shift in europe as well so for the first time in a while i feel quite optimistic about about a future where we're getting policies. Now that make more sense in trying to make the well better than his bain for a long time say tomato this is this is a massive change. Yeah so i think that The way that we can talk about this we can talk about it in terms of what you see as the future and then i can talk about what other people are talking about as risks to that because obviously you seem to be very positive about This regime shifts but many other. People are apprehensive. they're talking about inflation they're talking about misallocation of resources. They're talking about You know Social engineering things of that nature. And i think that there's a big debate. Part of it is economic part of it's political. How do you frame it. What's the the software that you're thinking about that plugs into this new regime shift any..
"tes lombard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
"When will you be able to go to a meeting where nobody smells like hand sanitizer dunes but we can give you the latest business and financial news fragrance free plus tease out some of what you just said our tools in the toolbox for the Fed. Does that point to the need for continued monetary support Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business happened Bloombergradio DOT com. He realized the mark that this is having on a younger generation. Bloomberg the world is listening Angel- capital of the world. Twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com on the Bloomberg business APP and Bloomberg quick tape. This is Bloomberg radio. Bloomberg markets. Quinn and Paul's we view the volatility in the marketplace here downturn for American workers in history companies he's across the board across industries trying to show up their balance sheets Terry, very disturbing dynamics at work breaking market news and insight from Bloomberg experts. So look the can speed up vaccine development all the dish locations. There's always relative value trades that you could be doing. This could be a you shake. v-shape profession certainty I think that is really taking everyone. He's Bloomberg markets with Vonnie. Quinn polls on Bloomberg radio good Thursday morning from New York City to our worldwide audience. COMING UP WE'RE GONNA have a Steve Blitz chief economist for TES Lombard. Get his thoughts on jobless claims inflation and the ECB plus. Get the latest on the global end gas markets. But first, let's go to Greg Jarrett of Bloomberg News for a rumor business last. Fall were up for day number two stocks advanced Yes for a second day led by the tech shares that were battered..
"tes lombard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Let's look at what things are likely to shape up for the Asian trading day. Couple of is way before the start of trade in Tokyo, Sydney. And so is Bloomberg's Doug krizner progress show the US equity market drifted lower after five days of gains, the themes, should be familiar by now on certainty about US China trade, and then the outlook on fed policy today. We had President Trump saying he is personally holding up the trade deal with China. He said, it's not going to complete it unless Beijing returns to terms negotiated earlier in the year. We'll unpack that story in a moment industrials the big drag on the s&p, five hundred the benchmark was down less than one tenth of one percent at the same time, the Dow NASDAQ composite down by similar degrees. So in terms of eco data, we had word producer prices in may rose at the slowest pace in more than a year. Barren mind tomorrow. We're going to get that report on consumer prices, now we know the market has been betting on rate cuts, President Trump today, stepping up his criticism of the fed. Tweets he called rates way too high given very low inflation, little movement on the ten year treasury last quoted in New York at a yield of two fourteen a group of states now suing to block the proposed merger of T mobile and sprint. This is an unusual challenge since federal, anti-trust officials are still reviewing the deal. Got a slightly weaker yen here one, oh, eight fifty three and Nikkei futures in Chicago trading down, maybe fifty points below where we were in cash yesterday in Tokyo, Brian. All right, Doug. Thanks very much. Lots of eyes on what's happening in Hong Kong today to Pierce thousands of people are gathering outside the legislative council this morning. The body doesn't convene until eleven o'clock or so, but people are gathering there to, to, to protest against a controversial Bill. Jonathan Fenby managing director TES Lombard says the events are posing. Something of an existential question for those people living. Here those people doing business, and investing in on cost financial markets. Kate sits in a quasi capitalist niche that. And that's what people in Hong Kong was going to be the case from nine hundred ninety seven. Now that wondering whether, whether it is seen in Beijing as just another big Chinese city. We'll have basic and essential details on what's happening today later with our Ed Baxter. Meantime, we do have the first big financial casualty of this uprising in progress. Go financial dropping at successive one point four billion dollar bid for a land parcel in KAI. Tak in Kowloon. Let's get to Bloomberg's Yvonne man threes, directors and three independent directors at the company have voted urging board meeting to withdraw the tender, and they're citing recent social contradiction and economic instability, that could negatively affect Hong Kong's commercial property market worth. Mentioning, though, that the chairmen punt Sutan voted to stick with the tender. He says the current situation won't affect the market's long-term growth prospects and backing out golden will forfeit a non refundable, five million dollar deposit pay to Hong Kong government in Hong Kong. I'm yvonne. On men, Bloomberg daybreak Asia. Well, President Trump telling reporters today that he's the one keeping a trade deal from China or with China from happening. And right now,.
"tes lombard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Extend pressure is going to be an opportunity for reform in China. Think liquidity more generally across financial markets is an issue and a concern. All in a much better place than they were five years ago. Wouldn't be great to have a full now trae conflict with the US dig anybody else. I'm never been one side westerly will be new imagine. If you can Bloomberg daybreak on Bloomberg radio. Good morning from London. I'm Ana Edwards and from Frankfurt in Germany. I'm Matt Miller here for the Commerce Bank interview that I'm about to head over to just about an hour time. Yeah. You're listening to daybreak Europe live on London DAV digital radio Matt's decamping from Berlin to Frankfurt full. That interview. We check the markets every fifteen minutes, we'll get to the performance of the markets in just a moment. But just wanted to bring you a red headline. That's crossed the Bloomberg. The GAM executive board loses loses a confidence vote at his AGM AGM for the troubled money manager taking place today in zero we heard a couple of minutes ago that the X von fund manager Tim Hayward who to pay it on on Bloomberg. And number of times form a bond manager at the heart of a scandal at the firm was denied entry to the meeting. So he was unbelievable. Is it truly unbelievable story? He was denied access to the meeting. And now, it seems that the the board has lost a confidence vote at the AGM. Remember that this goes back, many months, the Swiss money manager GAM has been trying to revive itself. After of course, the foam was struggling with this scandal that involved the former bond trader, Tim Heywood. So we'll keep an eye on what's going on there. Yeah. I think it's such a fascinating story because number one it's incredibly rare for executives to lose this kind of confidence vote at a shareholder meeting. It's typically in the bag, and it's a scandalous if they only get eighty or seventy percent, but losing competence voter shareholder meeting means that they've done a really poor job typically and the scandal of Tim Heywood. I mean, how scandal is really was it. They threw out this manager for seemingly very small infractions. And as a result have lost tens of billions of dollars. So it's a it's a fascinating story. And it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Yeah. Indeed and takeover tool will it comes to anything? That's been. There's been plenty Ovitz running this business also emanate within the sex money management in general friend on a number of fronts, but we will return to that. No doubt. I said that we check where we have on the market. So I gotta do that. We are up by around eight episodes on the socks. Six hundred the fifty one hundred entirely flats the CAC and the Dax giving us best games this morning. The Dax up around half a percent that was we were saying on TV we started out flashing yesterday session. Then went down by one point four percent on European stocks by the close important to note that US futures do point tentatively higher by between one and two tenths of a percent right now for the major indexes in the US which would make a change from what we've seen over recent days this selling in Asia was extensive. We were down by one percents on the Asia-Pacific. We sold the Japanese market the market the Chinese market all of those down by more than one percent. A concern around the trade war concern around the trade talks. Whether they'll deliver anything at the end of this week, whether they'll indeed take place, we know that the Chinese delegation still plans to go, but the US threatens put on these tariffs, regardless on Friday says it plans to do so elsewhere the dole is a little weaker down by around an eighth of a percent, then ninety seven forty seven is where we trade on the dollar index. The euro is a little stronger against that we could all of this morning. So by around. Eight of a percent to one twelve handle on the euro. We had slightly better data out of Germany this morning. We see the pound is little weaker this morning down around a culture of one percent, one thirty forty two the oil price was stronger than it is. Now, we're at sixty nine ninety on brands is pretty flat. We had been little higher earlier on some new slice around Iran the nuclear deal there and the Iranians intention to step away from the parts of that deal getting some of the headlines in the early hours, and certainly influencing at the thinking of those in the oil markets, Matt. Our let's bring in now sweating from has Lombardo on television earlier. And now she joins us here on Bloomberg radio. You know, I think that the trade story is still really front and center because the US is going to move for retired tariffs on Chinese goods Friday. Although the two are set Beijing and Washington to talk start talks tomorrow. Do you think they can still gonna deal done? Hi, matt. Yes, we do think they a trade deal. Isn't the thing on what Trump is doing is these are typical trading tactics? When you try to build pressure as you get closer to the end date. So as to extract as much concessions from the other party as you possibly can and bearing in mind that Trump is looking looking at at an at an election next year is trying to create an image of a strong man whereby he he he adopts a tough stance against China and sort of pushes them into delivering asthma in as many concessions as possible. The risk is that the trade deal could. Could be struck a bit later than what we were previously anticipating. But we do think that there there has to be there will be a trade deal because the stakes are quite high on both sides on both sides do want a deal so to speak given what we've seen this week Shrestha in equity markets. I'm sure they would be relief expressed in in some way. And to some extent if we did see a deal any deal almost, but but it does raise questions, and I was reading a great Bloomberg opinion piece about this. You know, what exactly it means to end this tension because on the one hand yesterday, you can do a deal that talks about tariffs? But the fallout between the US and China the lack of trust that that seems to be now seems to be so extensive that even if we do see this rap doping some way. Something that will threaten to reappear. Isn't it could resurface as you know? It doesn't take a great deal of immagination to to envisage a situation where the US says will China you haven't enforce the agreement and therefore Trump takes the Twitter again, we're going to be at at the whim of his comments on this sometime. Yep. Absolutely. So, you know, even if they agree on some sort of agreement, which we think there will the sort of intricacies involved are open to question. For instance. You know, the the the issues around our people -tection structural reforms the currency opening up opening up of Chinese voters to foreign investment accepting greater imports. All of these issues are really very subjective an assessment, and yes, there is a lot of scope for these uncertainties to re emerge. And this is something that will continue to weigh on on on market sentiment. On Capac having said that because you know, we've had so much for drag from these concerns last year, and there is so much of so much of catch up for Catholics to do. There will be some sort of pickup in the second half of the year and next year because because this uncertainty has suppressed growth to a great extent already here in Europe, the European Commission cut its growth forecast for the euro area, slashed its projection for Germany. All right. It's a little bit backward. Looking. It's nothing that's unexpected. But do you expect this second half pickup in the EU as well? Yeah. We are looking for some sort of a more more more. A better pace of expansion in the second half of the year nothing dramatic to get excited about so overall. We're looking at growth just north of one percent, which is way below the potential growth rate of the euro-zone and definitely a lot weaker than what the from a record. And the the growth we've seen in two thousand seventeen for instance, and the reason underpinning this this is that a lot of the insert a lot of the the headwinds that are pushed growth lower globally, and in the euro-zone in the second half of the year our last year are sort of giving away. So the for instance, the global central banks have have clearly moved away from from tightening bias towards a toughish pivot. Chinese policymakers are continuously trying to stimulate the economy and the impact from these measures should start to come through in the second half of the year at the same time, the inventory overhang, which has been weighing so. Heavily on on global manufacturing should sort of start to recede, and we should sort of see a pick-up in manufacturing g think that the Tel telco three program from the will be subject to the details. Of course. But you you've previously said Swiss that you can try and lend money to banks, and they'll take it. But it's lending into the real economy that we're seeing a lack of damone for is that still the case that is the case a lot has been made of the slight pick-up in in money numbers money growth numbers in the euro-zone, and you know, because money transfer of sort of lead the cycle. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye euro. So there is this positive expectation that growth will pick up in the euro-zone, and that's true. But for a proper monetary boost you do need to see a an improvement and credit amount measure such as trolls sort of address the quantity. Pressures and banks. They dress the credit supply concerns, especially for weaker banks, and those are concentrated in in Italy and Spain, but they do not address the issue of lack of predator mount. So so policies such as cultures that do not really address the key issue. That's constraining European growth. We really appreciate having you on today. Thanks so much for joining us both on television and on radio shorter saying managing director for global macro at TES Lombard. Let's get the world national news.
"tes lombard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of the month where we get the jobs report. So let's break it down. We talked a little bit Vince about it with Joe, and Dave we're going to turn to a couple of very smart, economists Lindsey eggs, she is chief economist at St. full. She joins us on the phone from Chicago and Stieglitz chief economist TES Lombard joining us on the phone from New York City Lindsay want to start with you top line reaction when you saw this role across not as much drama. It feels like as we as we saw in February. It was pretty much as expected, and it gives us a little more confidence that the economy is still on moderate footing after February's very disappointing reports now it was far from robust. But again, if paints a picture of still solid momentum. It'd be employment picture as a fed moves to the fire by this really offered a lot of justification for more patient physician. It certainly doesn't it give any indications that the fed needs to raise rates further. But it also wasn't weaken up to suggest that the fed and maybe thinking about a more defensive strategy in the deer her. This is Steve you had an interesting point you sit outside of retail held in restaurants in your note, three of the lower wages sectors of the economy. The piece of hiring continues to dip Philipson a little bit more about that. Yeah. I mean, I think that to the extent that, you know, hiring as robust as long as you want to work on a restaurant or home health care, but outside of that it really and computers speak to be fair. But outside of that. Yes. The pace of growth is slowing especially in the higher wage sectors. When we look at average hourly earnings they're slowing as well on a rolling three month basis. So the picture is of a weakening or softening economy, but I agree with what Lindsey said because the top line numbers are good. There's no there's no pushier for the state to cut rates because the underlying data is soft. They can push back on any any notion that because the the top line looks good that they you know, they stopped too soon. And and so as a result or they're going to continue to sit and watch and wait, and so Lindsey synthesize the jobs numbers the report, and the context that we got from here as it relates to payrolls with everything else seems to be going on, you know, whether it's US China trade, whether it's Brexit, you know, where does this fit into the to the broader narrative that the markets are trying to digest? Well, I think the market's first and foremost trying to determine the directional momentum of the economy, the labor market economy. Yeah. Now, the labor market as I said, it's a very big part of that. But there's other sectors that the market is focusing on the consumer also losing some momentum with the latest retail sales numbers. Pretty disappointing business investment also trending towards the more negative platform there with four of the last six months in outright negative space. We also see the housing market showing clear red flags with nearly a year of negative sales activity at least on an annual basis. So the market's first and foremost looking at this ongoing loss of mental in the domestic economy. And then we have these layers of geopolitical risks, as you mentioned U S, China trade really painting a dismal picture in terms of international growth international relations, we have the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Now. That's a little more nuanced. We're not necessarily applying that a no deal. Brexit would have a material impact on the US, but it does at players of uncertainty. And of course, we then look at the global outlook for growth, and we see some of these major economies UK, Germany, Italy, China all showy multiyear lows in terms of growth and many analysts looking for further decline in those international economy, excuse me. So I think the market is really trying to digest just how much of that is coming from overseas versus how much of that weakness is being produced here at home. Steve I was just going to sit back onto the retail sales of I say way back to that. As you said, the retail sales numbers have not been great for the last three prince, we only have one out of three in positive territory. And now we're seeing slower wage growth. What does that really say for the second quarter giving potentially lack of disposable income for the consumer? Well, it it says its exactly what the numbers telling you, look the economy is softening there's no question about that and curve and the movement and the curve beginning at the end of last year is signaling that and it's Natalie is a signaling a software economy, but it's going to create one by especially with the two years trading through the funds rate by an increase in credit standards by lending institutions, obviously banks, so. The interesting part of what of all the data that Lindsey mentioned incorrectly. So correct design agree with obviously. Is that is that the numbers were seen though is because real race got too high last year, and it's slow the interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy capital goods housing and then to knock on tax on the global slowdowns really emanated from China and emerging markets. We have yet to see, and my guess is some would be the earliest that we would see it the negative impact on real activity from the shift in relative pricing on the yield curve that began late last year. So when you take all of that together, you've got one layer of weakening, which I think should obeyed a little bit in the second quarter. So I think that you know, if we paid first quarter growth around one five to two then I think the second quarter could be a little better than that. A lot of it's gonna be inventory swing. That's going to help that it's the third quarter though, this really going to tell the tale the tape about the momentum. And until we get there. Namely, the third quarter begin to see where the momentum of economies if that time we are just on this kinda just watching and waiting and seeing and guessing pm on. All right, Steve, let's chief U S T S Lombard Lindsey Piazza. She is chief economist at St. full. Thank you, both so much those adopt US kids presents multiple choice parenting. Your daughter.
"tes lombard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We got from the fed yesterday. As are we hear Bloomberg radio and help us to do that a little bit more. We welcome. Our next guest. Steve blitz. Steve is chief economist for TES Lombard. He joins us here. In a Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, Steve welcome to the studio. What are what is your key takeaways? Know the fed announcement yesterday in the commentary surprise, I think the market what were your key takeaways? Well, first of all we weren't surprised defenseman telegraphing this since really the end of December. And then the end of quantitative tightening is really he he gave it out to the markets back the meetings. So this to me is just the combination of it. The key. Takeaway is this the fed understands that it really cannot afford recession. Right. The hubris that central banks always carried with them that the comedy starts slow. They could always get rates down low enough to rekindle animal spirits. Get the economy back again that hubris got destroyed really with the last recession. And so it's not so much the fear that the next recession would be as your larger is catastrophic is the last one because there's no imbalances over suggests. That's the case. But it's really the getting rates low enough long enough the rekindling of QE back to zero yields just to get a mediocre recovery going and they'd rather avoid recession now or avoid that kind of avoid that kind of slowed down now and deal with a higher growth higher inflation environment. Twelve eighteen months down the road, which is something they know how to take care of. But here's the weird thing. If that's the case, why do you see today? Longer-term inflation expectations a little bit lower. Right. I mean, why is it that people are not viewing this dovish tilt of the fed as as juicing in a significant way longer term inflation. Well, I think there's two things first off real yields have dropped L Everson. If you go back to January third, you do see that really dropped a lot more than break, even inflation's half to your so in that sense, the Q end of Q E. The end of coochie the stealth that get started really when they start swapping mortgages for treasuries later this year. There's no inflation. Right. If you go back if you just look at goods CPI goods X oil since one thousand nine hundred ninety six not the rate just the index is a flat line. The only inflation. We really have in this country is really is is is service inflation most of that is insurance and really rent, which is really a tax on producers this attacks on consumers. It's not the kind of goods inflation that would generate that kind of growth so people see that kind of inflation number, you know, happening again, it doesn't seem that going to be right. It's just they don't see it. I'll Steve you brought up the armored as in recession. Do you think the fed actually was concerned about a recession at this point? I don't think they're concerned about. No one's talking about. It's not in the minutes. Maybe we'll see you know, five years from now in the actual transcripts released. But I think they are concerned that what they're seeing Greenspan told the fed you see the slow down the economy in the market before you see in the real data towel markets guy. He's not in a communist the the market started to invert to curve back before the last fed hike in certain parts of the market after that fed hike. He saw that. He knows what it means. He doesn't have to say the our word to understand that. Hey, we have to do something now. Right. Because the other part of the story is this a fed any central Bank can do boost financial assets right in the hope that the gains in the financial assets turned into real spending that translation has been sorely under expectations during this recover. Dery which means that households for example are all overweight in their portfolios financial assets. So just going forward. What is the risk of overheating? Whether inflation doesn't sound like you think is going to take off. But what about with respect to just financial assets at this point? Well, I think if the fed is successful, and if China does indeed recovering the second half of the year, as we expect it, well, you can't lead the China part out of this story. It's a it's an integral part of the outlook for the us here in the next six to twelve months, if China turns US economy turns chances are by the middle of next year. You're you're looking at a strong economy with high growth higher inflation some inflation and financial assets. Probably a higher higher ten year yields but more in the inflation break games, then in the real yield. I think in that environment. If you ask the fed right now. Now, they would take that in a heartbeat because that they know how to deal with that is a much easier problem for them to handle than a disinflationary slowdown. Steve blitz. Thank you so much for being with us today. Thank you Steve blitzes chief economist at TES Lombard joining us here in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studios. The idea here is the fed trying to avoid a Japan like stagflation for years. And it seems like the inflation conundrum is coming out as one of the main priorities central banks that are generally taking a dovish tilt globally right now. We are looking at equity markets that are rallying off off their highs earlier, but still a pretty strong NASDAQ up nine tenths of one percent as dow-jones up about I don't know six seven tenths of a percent. We are also looking at a rally in bonds with yields lower ten year yields currently trading just just at two point.
"tes lombard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And prices, and that's what you're watching right now. 'cause you say chairman Powles really want you credit flows and the money market. I mean that in general sense way more than he's watching economy babble. Yeah. And Babbel's the right word for that fact, the last chairman that we had that really understood that the credit markets so should say pricey in the capital markets influence credit markets, and therefore the extension of credit was Greenspan. In fact, he said in the nineties, right? You're going to see the slow down the economy in the coming in the credit markets. I in Powell is following that same prescription the differences time as we don't enjoy an inflation adjusted yield the so-called real yield as in John Farrow's property today. One PM on Bloomberg television, not the same as Greenspan. No. And that's why. And that's why I'm sorry for Nike. That's why Powell has to be much more preemptive. He's not caving it to anybody. What he's what he's what he's bending to the reality. The two and a half percent funds rate is a lot closer to the zero bound than the optics suggests. And he really does not. Neither does the fed want to test. Having to rush to get underneath a slowing economy and get back to the zero bound and full-fledged QE, so rather announcer prevention Ceesay negative curve from wants to five he sees trading tops with funds rate. This is never been positive for credit extensions. In fact, in the feds report on their survey showed in the fourth quarter that you are seeing a switch towards credit standards going up the spreads of loans. Yields loan prices. I should say the cost of funds is widening. Yeah. And so why wait you mentioned Greenspan the ninety s the decade of the soft landing in the minds of a lot of people is that what chairman pow camp engineer is that what you think he can engineer here. Well, I think I think more of a soft land. I'm not a big fan of that phrase economies never really land. Right. So I think it's more of a case where he's jumping in here too. Prevent a slowdown from turning into something much worse, in our view is that my view is that, you know, you get very slow third quarter, but between tapering on the pace of balance sheet reduction between that and probably a twenty five basis point cut in the funds rate sometime in the summer, he avoids this summer, any voice that and then we're kind of back on it and you'll buys cases for a right cut this. I I would say it's fifty fifty at this point. But I certainly don't see the fed raising rates this year at all. So you've mentioned the opponents of market conditions market conditions that provides the catalyst to offer that right count. Is it something in the economy? What happens here? Well, what by the time? You get to the summer. It's going to begin to show up in the the the slowdown in credit extensions that began in the fourth quarter extending now begins to show up in really comic activity at least in the third quarter at first perhaps even later it. So when he starts to see just a little bit of. Of a slowdown. Remember, he's going to be much more preemptive to Tom's point about the lack of real yields a lack of inflation. He's gonna have he has to be much more preemptive, and he will take the heat of their for buying a higher wage exceleron in wage inflation at twenty twenty twenty four twenty one because that's something they know how to handle they rather. They'd rather face having to raise rates and chase inflation a year and a half from now they'd have to face the zero bound this year. Would they take any comfort from the price action of the first five six weeks of the year? I don't know how much comfort they're gonna take from it. I think a lot of that look December was to a large extent down move in a in a interact Q, it's a very low low the quantity month. And so I think what you see this month is to a large extent of rebound from from December's action. So I would I'm not sure how much comfort they take and certainly more comfort than if the decline continued that's for certain. But I'm not sure that they believe that completely out of the woods yet. Especially when you look at the baby of the short end of the curve Stiglitz. Thank you, so much tears Lombard greatly. Appreciate. Full stack for like a longer thing. Fridays zoo for us. We're gonna have a lot of stuff to say about the idea of a rate cut this summer. Yeah. But that's always there's always a derby a rate cut. But to your point there are actually maybe some real substances time remember yields and they say cut. I mean, that's a scientific analysis and Tom's right? Remember two thousand eight we're halfway through the year. Most of the street, economists are still arguing that we weren't recession. Flits TES Lombard chief US economists credit catch up with the Aleve. And as soon on I got to leave soon. Yeah. Into the kindle hundred sixty nine. One hundred sixty nine dollars book on kindle, chairman Bernanke. Maybe listen these guys themselves. Huge royalty. Give me a break. That's absurd. That's. I it's a scandal. I say this is Bloomberg. The news from New York City his Michael Barr. Jonathan Tom.
"tes lombard" Discussed on Monocle 24: Midori House
"Welcome teammate Dory. House. My guest today on Daniele pellet, managing editor of the institute for war and peace reporting, and Jonathan Fenby former editor of the South China Morning post. A now the chairman of China research and direct to European political research at TES Lombard, welcome. Both of you to the program. Now is Donald Trump on costs for achieving a peace deal in Afghanistan if recent events or anything to go by the signs do look promising early this week the US presidents special Representative for Afghanistan reconciliation reveal that after six days of negotiations. He had achieved a framework for a peace deal with the Taliban. Something that has eluded. American diplomats and presidents for over a decade. Meanwhile, another round of talks are scheduled to take place late next month in Qatar with Mullah Abdul Ghani Barada, former mujahedeen fighter leading the Taliban's side. So Danielle how would you rate the chances for peace just on that broad brush sweep? Perv. The signs are looking fairly positive. Well, I think the Washington Washington has is more of a blueprint for getting its troops out of buff Gunstone rather than anything to do with the with the lost in peace. The needs to be direct negotiations between the government in Kabul, and the Taliban before any peace deal can be break it. I mean, it's ludicrous to think that can be any other way, the Taliban say that refused to do this saying that the government are just pawns of the of Washington. And the fact that usher on his government has no say in this really just does not give them any extra legitimacy or any extra weight? The point is not what happens about signing a peace deal and the troops leave. I mean, the Americans have already given away their biggest bargaining tool. That is the the starting point for the Taliban. The American troops leave what happens next, and it's just as rush to for Americans to send their forces in to conflict without thinking about the day after as to withdraw without thinking about the day after Burma's experience in Iraq, which seem seemed very plausibly to have fueled Roy's of Islamic state. Eight don't really vote. Well, for an American president really quite desperate to take his troops out at any cost. I guess the question has to be look, even if you do get both sides, talking whatever can you trust, the Taliban. Can you rely on this Insperity or could they renege on anything? That may be concocted. Yes, they could renege on anything. And that that will be the question. I think as you know, there's just saying the real thing the motivation in this is mainly from Trump who wants to get the troops home. They're keeping with the promise that he made to the base. Yes, the that follows on from Syria and so on and it's almost saying, well, if then goes to hell of the hand card so bid I think that's a considerable danger. Then. But then the you've got the the tool from the special Representative, Don. Yeah. That who said that he's brokered a framework, what is this framework and just how viable is it? Well, the framework rests on guarantees the Taliban will give to prevent an refused to host al-qaeda all Islamic state forces in any area under their control. But if. The aim of the US involvement in Afghanistan laws to make it make it a guarantee that would no longer be a base for attacks may manage that by December two thousand and one that's not really what's been going on here in the mission has been confused, obviously, that's very difficult and was a development Reconsiliation was it nation building. The so many different actors involved. It's been extremely difficult. But the the only I think all parties do agree that a peace process is the only way forward the Taliban have to be brought into the. Brought into government to certain elements of them. And there's a lot to lose in this not least very hard one women's rights a more progressive elements. But there's no other way. I mean that is the only way that that that peace can be built under. I should have got any has been working on this. We have seen some we have seen some progress. That was an unprecedented ceasefire the end of the lost Ramadan. But in terms of actual leaps forward. There's no progress from the Kabul side while the American parallel negotiations going on. What happens if there isn't agreements that it falls to bits to the Americans come back in again..
"tes lombard" Discussed on Monocle 24: Midori House
"Welcome t- Midori house. My guess today. Our Oscar yada, Yoda Rivera. He's a reader indoor Birkbeck university of London and Jonathan Fenby Jonathan is chairman of China research. He's also director of European political research at TES Lombard, gentlemen. Welcome. Both of you to the program. Let's start first with Donald Trump because he may have to hold off from delivering his state of the union address to congress on January, the twenty ninth house speaker Nancy Pelosi said security risks caused by a partial closure of the US government means the president must either delay. The speech all submitted in writing what the shutdown the longest on record is now in its twenty seventh day with no sign of a resolution must Pelosi has denied playing politics and says the shutdown is hurting the finances of the department of homeland security and intelligence services both of which are responsible for security at the event rather ironic. So Jonathan is Nancy Pelosi thing disingenuous when she denies playing politics. I think I think you can say that. I've been the Democrats here CC an opportunity, and of course, the the secretary of homeland security has deny to this any problems. We're in this usual hall of mirrors here, but the Democrats are viscerally intent on pushy what they see as a weakness for Trump that he's backing himself into a corner with his base on this whole issue of the shutdown. And they as one of them said it, welcome to the new democratic majority. Get used to it. I guess I'll look if if this is correct Jonathan's interpretation that it is just playing politics. Look at the end of the day is going to win Bolden the president and his base because he'll say, hey, you all I'm a victim off democratic politics. The kicking me won't surely Trump will try to know turn this upside down as he usually does. But he's clearly an attempt to buy Balazs Schumer to get insides the precedent to ski now under the Skien as we say it. But well, these shows is something much more interesting what we're witnessing is a real conflict between the executive trying to impose its will on congress, and congress, you know, kicking back, but Tiki clearly the more the more progressive sectors of congress, which is why also in my be a misnomer to name these a government shutdown so partial. Shutdown of those agencies some programs that tend to help the many not the few. There is a very interesting article in the nation. You know, building on that premise, whether one believes the premise or not buys buys, it wholesale in does mean that there is really political intent not just political playing here. But let's dependent that idea a bit further Jonathan this idea of the executive the president up against congress. Look, this is the first blast of what we were told could potentially happen that in spite of all the talk about bipartisanship, it was never really going to happen. Absolutely. I mean Trump and bipartisanship are not two words you associate together very easily technically, the president has to actually be invited by the two houses of congress to come in and give the state of the union. So you you can you can save from that formal point of view. Congress has the right not to invite him. But this is I think just, you know, one of what against be a ho series of standoffs between the White House and the house of representatives, and the Democrats there over the next two years all of it in a sense focused on the Trump would like to be his reelection campaign in a couple of years time. So we're in this very long period, and how much home that actually does to the kind of people who was talking about a moment ago and then to the economy and to the whole working of government. I mean, you know, it is quite possible. That for instance, we won't have economic data from the the government in the US in a few months times. Big numbers coming up don't found payroll the first prime numbers. Yes. I mean, they'll probably be independent I'll of a numbers there. But the whole of that and ironically enough, I just read today. The the US trade representative's office, which is due to resume talks with the Chinese at the end of this month about a third of their staff are laid off. So what the effect? I mean, no doubt. You know, the top people will still be there..
"tes lombard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A willingness to wait a sort of dovish tilt that has given some market some confidence joining us now Steve blitz chief economist for TES Lombard, and he joins us now by phone. Thank you so much for being with us. I'm just wondering from your perspective. Do you think that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again this year? No, I don't and first of all happy new year everybody. No, I don't I don't think they didn't a hike because I always get this very interesting fedspeak, which which has at the moment this notion that the asset markets of pricing one world and the economies of different worlds when we all know that asset prices determined economic activity. It's how monetary policy works. What has occurred to date especially in terms of the curve in the fixed income markets in the treasury market will knock the average growth rates should a year below trend. So let's call it one and a half percent. And in that environment. There's no reason why said would increase rates stay blitz. The you believe that the Federal Reserve fully understands and concurs with the notion that economic growth is dependent as well as the direction of asset prices is dependent on their monetary actions. Well, it's it's it's it's a great question. The short answer questions, obviously. Yes. Otherwise, what are they doing? But when you look at the minutes and talk about what are the risks to growth, they put Terry policy about four in. I is what's happening in the global economy and second is the shift from stimulus to lack of stimulus to drop off from the from the from the federal deficit, so those two factors in and of itself. Is number one and number two. And then they get into other things. So at the moment, they're seeing their policies somewhat benign. I disagree with them. And I think the reason they personal they see that is looking at the level of nominal rates against gross in the economy. And they're saying, you know money is still cheap to an air percents funds rate against four percent, nominal GDP. But you have to look at it as an adjustment you've gone from ten years of zero rates to the money markets being a viable asset and ten years is a long time. There's a lot of habits both on the borrowing and the investing side that reflects your rates and last September when the funds rate went over to we know from finance people don't react continuously they act Liang, discreet steps. Discreet step was when got. To handle on funds. And all of a sudden, the old expression is the dime. Dropped. That would have to be especially if people haven't been in the market. Well, let's talk about the balance sheet because this is where the focus is turning the four trillion dollars assets on reserves balance-sheet. What do you expect them to do with that? How much is that really affecting the shrinking of it? How much is that actually affecting markets right now? Well, I think there's two parts of that balance sheet that are that are up for discussion. Okay. So why which was in the minutes, and I'm gonna do that dismisses? But just put that aside 'cause I don't think it's relevant to this discussion, which is the impact of drinking the balance sheet and the internal plumbing Bank funding. It's an issue in this a fundraising mean anything anymore and all these things, but that's it's an issue the contingency planning. It's important, but it's not important at the moment. And what's important at the moment is that the fed is stepping away from buying three hundred billion of treasuries this year, plus whatever the banks of pulling themselves out of the out of reserves and transferring it elsewhere, which means the state has to adjust their assets by selling it affect more treasuries other that really selling but in any event, let's just say sell is to make it easier. At a time when you have a doubling of the deficit, and that means that the private markets have to not only accommodate and for what the treasury selling. But for what the thing is not buying. And that's what has the markets a bit spooked. And if you notice with the drop in yields. At the terminal level at terms damage, a ten year five to send years, the real yields haven't gone down that much of the inflation premiums dropped a lot and a real yield estate up because you need to attract that capital to buy treasuries. So I think it means a lot. And I think that it was telling that went Powell was at the last Friday, and we'll hear what he has to say today, if he if he reiterates the comments or expands upon them when he was for the first time, he said, look if any set it in the context of treasury issuance in the context of treasury issuance, if they think that the fed matters. Balance sheet policies matter they will adjust their policies, and I think that we have limited time. But I think that the first step defense gonna make taper not end, but they're gonna taper the pace of q t and they'll get a nice PR benefits from that. And maybe they go in and instead of buying seven to ten year pay, but maybe they buy some bills to try and get a little steepness back into the curve. Thanks very much for being with us. Steve blitz is chief economist at T S, Lombard speaking about the Federal Reserve and US interest rates and taking a look right now, particularly at the long end of the curve a little bit of selling the thirty years down nine thirty seconds for a yield a.
"tes lombard" Discussed on P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz
"The minutes from the December Federal Reserve meeting indicated a willingness to way to sort of dovish tilt that has given some market some confidence joining us now Steve blitz chief US economist for TES Lombard, and he joins us now by phone. Thank you so much for being with us. I'm just wondering from your perspective do think that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again this year. No, I don't and first of all happy new year everybody. No, I don't I don't think that in a hike because I, you know, you always get very interesting fedspeak with which has at the moment, this notion that the asset markets of pricing one world and the economy's different world when we all know that acid prices determine economic activity. It's how monetary policy works. What has occurred? To date, especially in terms of the curve in the fixed income markets. The treasury markets will not grow the average growth rates of the year below trend. So let's call it one and a half two percent and in that environment. There's no reason why the fed would increase rates stay blitz. The believe that the Federal Reserve fully understands and concurs what the notion that economic growth is dependent as well as the direction of asset prices is dependent on their monetary actions. Well, it's it's it's it's it's a great question. The short answer that question, obviously. Yes. Otherwise, what are they doing? But when you look at the minutes, and they talk about what are the risks to growth, they put Bata Terry policy about fourth. And I is what's happening in the global economy and second is the shift. From simulates to Alaska stimulus drop over the stimulus from the from the from the federal deficit, so those two factors in and of itself is number one and number two, and then they into other things. So at the moment, they're seeing their policies somewhat benign. I disagree with them. And I think the reason they I they see that is because they're looking at the level of nominal rates against growth in the economy. And the saying, you know money is still cheap to an air percent funds rate against for odd percent, nominal growth and GDP. But you have to look at it as an adjustment you've gone from ten years of zero rates to the money markets being a viable asset and ten years longtime. There's a lot of habits both on the borrow in the investing side that reflect zero rates and last September when the funds rate went over to we know from behavioral. Finance people don't react continuously they act reacted discreet steps. And that scripts step was when got to handle on funds, and all of a sudden, the expression is the dime dropped and that would have to be especially that people haven't been in the market ten years. But no, let's talk about the balance sheet because this is where the focus is turning the four trillion dollars of assets on hunters balance-sheet. What do you expect them to do with that? How much does that really affecting that sort of shrinking of it? How much is it actually affecting markets right now? Well, I think it's two parts of their balance sheet that are that are up for discussion. Okay. So one which was in the minutes, and I'm going to dismiss us. But just put that aside. I don't think it's relevant for this discussion, which is the impact of franking the balance sheet and the internal plumbing a Bank funding. It's an issue and this fund rate mean anything anymore and all these things, but that's that. It's an issue. The contingency planning. It's important, but it's not important at the moment. And what's important at the moment is that the fed is stepping away from buying three hundred billion of treasuries this year, plus whatever the banks of pulling themselves out of the out of reserves and transferring it elsewhere, which means the fed has to adjust their assets by selling it affect more treasuries other than that really selling. But in any event, they sell to make it easier at a time when you have a doubling of the deficit, and that means that the private markets have to not only accommodate and for what the treasury selling. But for what the is not buying. And that's what has the markets bit spooked. And if you notice with the drop in yields at in the terminal level that turns to ten year even five to ten years. The real yields haven't gone down that. Much. The inflation premiums dropped a lot and the real yield estate up because you need to attract that capital to buy treasuries. So I think it means a lot. And I think that it was telling that when Powell was at the EA last Friday, and we'll hear what he has to say today, if he if reiterates the comments or expand upon them when he was the first time he said, look if and they said it in the context of treasury issuance that in the context of treasury issuance, if they think that the fed matters that the Fed's balance sheet policies matter they will adjust their policies, and I think that and then we have limited time. But I think that the first step the feds gonna make is the taper not end. But they're gonna taper the pace of q t and they'll get a nice, you know, PR benefit from that. And maybe they go in and instead of buying seven to ten year, pay paper, maybe. They buy some bills to try and get a little steepness back into the curve. Thanks very much for being with us. Steve blitz is chief economist at T S, Lombard speaking about the Federal Reserve and US interest rates. The
"tes lombard" Discussed on Monocle 24: Midori House
"So welcome to Midori house. My guests today are Linda, you broadcaster and author of the great economists and Jonathan Fenby chairman of China, research and director of European political research. TES Lombard welcome both. And we will start with a dispatch from the frontline of US president, Donald Trump's curious, trade war with China, American tariffs have been announced on another sixteen billion dollars worth of Chinese imports. Adding to the tariffs already imposed on thirty four billion dollars of Janis imports. The new measures will go into place later this month as previously the goods targeted on mostly role materials rather than finished consumer products. But these may be affected by further tariffs which have also been threatened yet to be imposed an Linda. You're an economist in everything. Does any of this make any sense? It's a very unusual way to try open up a market is an if you your way of saying, no, no, it doesn't. It's sort of it's sort of the the tariff where the trade equivalent of gunboat diplomacy of you don't buy more American goods. We're gonna put a tax on what you sell, and that's essentially what this is. So they better way to reduce the trade deficit is to export more. It's not to make imports more expensive, which is what a tariff does. So I think this continually long-running trade dispute really has the at the heart of it. The fact that China's markets are not as open as America's and that really is what needs to be addressed. But of course, these talks have been ongoing behind the scenes. They have been talking about trying to open up China's markets more and there hasn't been a lot of success which is why you're seeing this escalation of the amount of goods which are subject to a higher tariff. I'm remember Andrew by September, beginning of September. It could be two hundred billion dollars of Chinese imports that's about hall before China South to the US every year. And here's the real. Worrying part China's been doing a tit for tat retaliation. So a you put tariffs on if you billion of our goods. We're gonna put tears in a few billion of your, but China only imports, one hundred sixty dollars billion dollars from the US so they can't retaliate in kind. And so one of the most fascinating things this is very worrying is that they derailed a very big emanate deal between a US company Qualcomm by a Dutch chipmaker. So you think this is nothing to do with China, but China's a major market can rule or in their case refrain from doing anything, which meant that there was no regulatory approval from China for this deal to go through and it derailed a two year. Emma deal. The US tech company was trying to do, and so that's another way of retaliating and that's actually much more damaging than Texas Johnson. If if it's difficult to discern the economic logic of this is the I apologize in advance due to guests when I'm trying to. Ask them to consider things from Donald Trump's perspective, is any apparent political logic to any of this? Yes, I'm in Trump is playing to his base. No take everything that Lindow said..