23 Burst results for "Steve Liebmann"
Retail Sales Plunge A Record 16.4% In April
"Nobody's shopping retail spending plunged in April as the corona virus pandemic forced the American consumer home and out of restaurants stores even gas stations. The April retail sales drop of sixteen point. Four percent broke the record set just last month now. Online retail sales are up including a statistic. I think I have directly influenced PYJAMA sales up one hundred fifty percent last month but the American consumer is our backbone typically responsible for about seventy percent of our twenty one trillion dollar plus economy here. Cnbc senior economics reporter Steve. Liebmann people aren't buying stuff. I mean I hate to state the obvious but this is an obvious statement in bold relief. Here they're not buying cars down twelve percent. They're not buying furnishings and home furnishing items down fifty eight percent clothing and clothing accessories down. Seventy eight percent. I mean there's one positive here I think there is just one positive that positive is non store retailers up eight point four percent and besides some sort of strange up and down we had in December eighteen that is the largest one month increase in that is electronics. And that's where people are indeed buying things. Non Store Retailers Down Twenty nine percent and I want to just say a word here. You have gasoline gasoline station sales down twenty eight percent normally. That's a good thing where the decline in gas prices ends up being sort of like a tax cut for individuals except in this case because people aren't driving they aren't really getting that remained necessarily. They're not paying as much for gasoline and not going to work. But you're not getting the stimulus you might otherwise get from the decline of gas prices similar ideas here with the decline in Federal Reserve interest rates so the nation shutdown that shutdown showing up dramatically in these retail sales price sales report here. And we're just not seeing yet and he kind of evidence in the early. May data a bunch of a rebound Andrew
Stocks Just Had Their Best Week in Decades
"Stocks rose solidly again today on Wall Street. Is the Federal Reserve? Outline more programs to support the economy today. The Dow rising two hundred eighty five points. The S&P five hundred was up about one and a half percent but check out these numbers for the week. The Dow is up almost thirteen percent for one of its best weeks on record the S&P five hundred rising twelve percent its biggest weekly gained since nineteen seventy four and the Nasdaq ten and a half percent rise. It's best since two thousand nine about the small Cap Russell. Two thousand. Its Best Week. Ever Oil didn't participate though falling. Nine percent as conflicting reports over a production cut weighed on prices there but late in the day it was confirmed that OPEC and its allies agreed to a ten million barrel per day cut for more on today's two trillion dollar fed accident. Let's bring in. Steve Liebmann Steve. It's good to see you this evening. We've used the word historic many times during this crisis. And it's the word we're GONNA use again tonight because that's what the Fed did earlier today. Yes Scott I would add unprecedented extraordinary actions by the Federal Reserve to the word historic The Fed announcing programs worth two point three trillion dollars of lending into the economy. Let me go through some of the details here. It is announcing a six hundred billion dollars of loans to in a mainstream lending facility. Something that has never done loaning to individual businesses eight hundred fifty billion dollars in corporate credit including buying high yield that is junk bond debt. Something it has never done. Additionally five hundred billion dollars in loans to state penalties it has never before loaned against municipal bonds. Let's we fed chair. Jay Powell speaking today saying that explaining why the Fed is taking these actions. It has never done before. People are undertaking. These sacrifices for the common good we need to make them halted extent we have the ability to make them whole. We should be doing that as a society. They didn't cause this their business hasn't closed because of anything they did wrong. They didn't lose their job because of anything did wrong. This is what the great fiscal power of the United States is for is to protect these people. Let's talk about these mainstream lending programs. It's Kinda complicated but let me walk you through what we know about how these are going to work there for year loans. They're open to companies with ten thousand dollars fewer ten thousand or fewer workers and revenues of less than two and a half billion dollars. Mostly these are going to be for mid sized companies. So let's in a very very loose way. I want to walk you through how. The taxpayer is financing these loans. Let's take a typical million dollar loan. That is the minimum size. At least initially. The bank will finance fifty thousand dollars of it. The Treasury effectively finances a hundred five thousand dollars. That's the set of the tax. Payer is on the hook. It's more complicated than that. But this is simple version and the Fed will provide eight hundred forty five thousand dollars of the rest of the financing for that loan. You can see. They could lever up that taxpayer money into much more money at the end and Fed Chair. Jay Powell was asked. Hey Is there any limit to this? You said no with legal limits of what the Fed can do Scott. They can keep going. There's more money from the Congress to do this and the fence sounds like it's going to be doing more here.
China coronavirus: Economists look to history for lessons on the impact of pandemic fears
"Concerns about the spread of the corona virus have gripped communities around around the world and economists are looking to history for lessons on the impact of pandemic peers. CNBC's Steve Liebmann. Three history won. A pandemic is an ever-present present. Terrorists can't get rid of that too. They mostly don't happen three. It takes a very serious and unique virus. Kevin major economic impact.
September Jobs Report
"It's the first Friday the of the month jobs Friday. When the Labor Department releases the number of American jobs lost or created the month before as well as the latest unemployment number jobs. Friday is always weighs on Friday and it's always at eight thirty. AM So on Squawk box. It's pretty much always free. There are a lot of voices in this conversation including our economics reporter. Steve Liebmann plus all of noisy traders behind our reporter. Rick Santelli who joins the team from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Andrew will walk you through the rest of our panel joining us now Halston Goolsbee in the Windy City University of Chicago Booth School of business professor and former council of Economic Advisers who's chairman. It's great to see you my friend. Kate Moore's here strategist at blackrock. Dave macintoshes joining US President of the club for Growth and a former US congressman. It's great to have everybody here. Let's get to Diana like she has. The numbers one hundred thirty six thousand nonfarm payrolls increased by one hundred thirty six thousand in September. The unemployment rate fell to three point five percent down from three point seven percent. That is the lowest level since nineteen sixty nine Diana thank you we're going to talk about all of this with some reaction from our jobs panel right now kate. Let's start with you. We never put anybody on the spot with saying exactly what that number was going to be but you were looking for a strong number and this is this really solid number the number. I was going to give one fifty nine with some downside. I feel like one thirty. Six is a healthy number especially because you saw the good healthcare number we expect expected little weakness in manufacturing retail. I think that's kind of par for the course of where we are in the cycle so I feel really good about this especially in light of what we had earlier this week in terms of 'em so so I think equities will do well to balance of the day. Hey Steve. You've had a minute to dig through some of that. What jumps out to you is the most important parts in this report are just trying to see the last night we had to be and a half percent unemployment rate and it looks like you gotta go back to nineteen sixty nine for one look. Here's the problem and we sorta flagged this problem back. in August as at August is very typically typically revised higher so the slowdown we thought we had in August at one hundred and thirty which we thought was hey. We're coming down to the place where we think we ought to be. That was your vice one sixty eight yeah and I think those are good. I think that tells us that. We're doing a little bit better than we thought we were doing. Retail has lots of problems down eleven thousand and then down on six thousand. We have to watch that sector. There's a huge transformation as you know happening over there. Look there's two scenarios that we're watching for here. Scenario number one is is a sort of expected slowdown as the crazy two hundred plus job gains of last year. Come back down to normal if we can settle in call it a one on twenty five to one fifty range that would be good and we're worried about the weakness going down below one hundred thousand. I think the idea that that we're now in zone own where it looks okay. It's pretty comfortable. It's not great but it's not terribly week. I called a win. Hey Rick Walk us through the market reaction to me. The biggest news without a doubt is that the markets looked at it as good news stocks and treasury yields but it's really a bad report in not for the jobsite wages this this is terrible unchanged month over month under three percent two point nine on a year over. Excuse me month over month year over year basis this these are good numbers. It's all about the money I stand. What do you think of this report. You know this kind of a mealy peach of a report. We're we're a little under what what what the forecast was okay like. Steve said it's it's okay but it's not it's definitely not Great Austin though you're looking at the wage issue decelerating eating not accelerating. How important is that to you. I think it's pretty important now that wages are steady after we've had several months where where they were growing. Hopefully this is a blip but I mean I'm telling you the thing driving this whole thing is that the GDP growth rate is slowing down and and a lot of the forecasters are now saying that they expect a one handle for the rest of the year if we get GDP growth falling down into the ones. I think the jobs odds numbers are GonNa fall apart and the ways numbers are going to fall apart dave when he think growth expectations for the rest of the year what are yours continued to be strong in the two to two and a half percent a from a political standpoint. This is very good news. The fact that the unemployment rate is an historic low. That's what most people around the country look at and the job. The creation rate is averaging now at one sixty three hundred sixty thousand a month when you compare that to pre trump the the Obama era at one oh nine that's very good news that he can take to the public and say we're. GonNa continue to grow the economy create jobs and the wage. It's a slight downward trend trend in the direction but it's still a positive increase rather than decrease in average wages
"steve liebmann" Discussed on On Point with Tom Ashbrook | Podcasts
"So the Pentagon has been calling for the US to ramp up domestic production as a matter of national security, the sour on point, rare earth, metals, and the trade wars, you can join US House, the White House doing in your opinion on trade negotiations with China. Farmers and manufacturers consumers are you ready to weather, the consequences if it gets China to trade, more fairly, and we'll tariffs on Mexico, stop Central American migrants from crossing into the US and at the end of the hour today will hear a Bill Nye, the science guy had to tell gouge your college graduating class of twenty nineteen about spaceship earth. But first, let's get right to those trade war questions, and we'll start with Steve Liebmann. He's senior economics reporter force CNBC always agreed explainer, and he joins us stay from Inglewood cliffs New Jersey, Steve Liebmann, welcome to on point grew to be here. Thanks for having me megabits. So first of all, I just want to hear what acting White House chief of staff Nick Mulvaney said about those Mexican tariffs at the president threatened late last week, move any was on Fox News, Sunday with Chris Wallace and Wallace asked Mulvaney. If the president was serious about slapping a tariff on all Mexican goods. And here's what Mulvaney said he's absolutely deadly. Serious affect. I fully expect these. These tariffs to go on to at least the five percent level on June tenth. The president is deadly serious about fixing the situation at the southern border. So Steve Liebmann was this announcement or, or threat by the president expected or did it catch both Mexico in the US off guard. Only if you begin to expect random tweets slapping tariffs on other countries, that's sort of been the case. Oh, no. It wasn't expected by the markets. It wasn't expected by me. We I guess we got an inkling of something big happening in some sort of announcement that Thursday morning, but everybody was taken by surprise, including I believe some of his advisors as well. Who didn't know this was coming for sure. And some of whom internally had argued against this move the tr- the, the secretary of the treasury of the United States. And also, his top trade advisor had argued against this because we have among other things a deal with Mexico in front of congress right now. Right. That being the, the revamped, I guess they'd have to call it the US, Mexico, Canada trade agreement, US MCA, if you want to save some time, okay? Well, top top officials from Mexico and the US are meeting today to try to defend off the threatened terrorists. But what exactly could they do? I mean the president has. Mexico has to solve the, the, the migration problem there. Yeah. And so your question is, is a good one, because it shows you the weird world we're in right now. Which is I don't know what they could do to solve the migration problem. I can talk about the impact of tariffs. I can talk about perhaps the unfair trade practices by China. I can talk about the relative advantage that one country has over another. And, and I don't know about that. And a lot of people don't know about that. And whether the linkage of the two you're using trade policy here in order to affect a another national security issue. You wanna call it or you can call it a migration issue. So what they can do. I don't know. But the effects of tariff second tell you, you have a lot of economists now that are pretty darn sure that recession is in the offing if these tariffs go into effect, tell us more about why. So there's a lot of different ways that tariffs will affect the economy, but in. The case of Mexico. It's especially complicated because we have this very elaborate and complicated supply chain in place. Where goods go down from the United States into Mexico, their process down there, but they come back and in some cases, they may go back again to Mexico..
"steve liebmann" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Was Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell giving more color about the Fed's easing strategy for the year. And it was those comments on the balance sheet. You just heard that had some on Wall Street on edge. CNBC senior economics reporter, Steve Liebmann is back at headquarters with more dovish or hawkish Steve. So can I pick a third choice and not dovish not hawkish move, maybe careless careless. Wow. Okay. I think that this is a lot like the Cobre third comment that upset the markets when he said that there was we were a long way from neutral. I I don't know exactly what chairman Powell thinks, but the their estimates out there, which the new York Federal Reserve gathers which shows that the on the street, they expect a balance sheet of three point five three point six trillion. That is for the fed to bring it down there from the current four trillion is that substantially. More than it is now is disagreeing with the market estimates right now, I don't when he said back then that we're a long way from neutral. I didn't think he meant they were going to go more than one hundred basis points. But I think the market saw that as potentially more than that. And I think this is a case where the fed chairman might have been more precise. I think the first part of his thing was correctly, telling what fed policy is right now that they wanna get the Balaji down to a place where they can conduct monetary policy without affecting saying substantially smaller. They were several people. I talked to observers who kinda rolled there is that comet it's not even back from October. It's his latest appearance, Steve where he backed away from automatic basically, automatic roll off the balance sheet, and now he's going back to I mean, it's amazing. How different the messages can be construed by the markets in such a short amount of time. It's not a period of months is a period of days at this point. And the. Question is what what can the markets? Believe does the fed have a credibility issue in its messaging. I think you can believe what the committee has said together as a committee, and that is that the balance sheet is going to roll off in this very predictable manner with a cap of up to fifty billion dollars a month and the new York Federal Reserve Bank has published a schedule as to the amount that we're roll off. And it's not six hundred billion by the way, it's more like four hundred forty billion this year for what that's worth and maybe three hundred next year, which which is to say that sometime in mid twenty twenty the fed will hit that target. Here's the problem. The problem is that if I was the Federal Reserve chairman, which of course, in for very good reason, I am not the I would have been thinking very carefully about how he's going to answer the balance. She question if that's the case it came up with substantially smaller. Then I'm wondering that maybe he meant to guide me that substantially smaller guide the markets that way. But if he didn't mean that then it'd be like, well, wait a second. You weren't prepared to answer that question carefully. So I don't have a good choice either way stevia. So we had a conversation. You said the fed is like it's an army moving forward. They hit some resistance. They regroup. They continue on forward resistance meet the market going lower. And it's just going to the market then recovers ten percent. The army continues to move forward is that the dance we're gonna do now for the next year. I think so, and I think in my sort of operating premise on this thing is how did the taper tantrum they came over the taper tantrum the market kind of freaked out they withdrew little bit wait a little time. And then came forward without much ca. Concern in terms of stopping the purchasing of assets. I think the fed wants to be higher here. I under- given circumstances. In other words, if the forecast comes out the way, they plan I think the fed does want to add, you know, maybe to rate hikes from here, and then kind of wait around, but it's going to wait till it has the market with it..
Federal Reserve, Steve Liebmann And Washington discussed on The 11th Hour with Brian Williams
"Real after the top of the hour sent the stock market into something of a free fall? The Dow fell another four hundred points again today, this is just this week that graphic and it made it the worst week on Wall Street in a decade. Nasdaq has now officially entered a bear market with us here to talk about CNBC senior analyst and commentator Ron insana run how bad is it bad enough, Brian? I mean as you said the NASDAQ's the bear market, the Dow and the S and P five hundred two other major averages are down eighteen percent from their highs of the year. They're down eight percent for the year to date. So this is either. However, you want to characterize it a serious correction or a bear market in stocks, something we really haven't seen for quite a number of years. And then getting a lot of it's predicated on these concerns about Washington concerns about. Interest rate policy trade policy, and a whole host of other things that are really out of the hands of Wall Street decision makers and found squarely in Washington. And that was my next question any of the triggers any of what's causing this? And I'm sure government shutdown doesn't help not at all any of it controllable. Well, if the Federal Reserve were in fact to decide not to raise interest rates going into twenty nine hundred and John Williams was interviewed by my colleague, Steve Liebmann this morning. He's the president of the new York Federal Reserve, and he said interest rates next year are not set in stone that the fed if financial conditions deteriorate stock market falls, more deeply credit markets. Get disrupted or we see signs of serious slowing in the economy. The fed may not raise rates again at all. Now that boosted the market early this morning by four hundred points before we started the sell off in the middle of the day part of it on the shutdown part of it Peter Navarro president's top trade advisor came out and said these negotiations with the Chinese over trade that will begin in January will not be easy. And that sent us to the lows of the day, we have all kinds of folks. Watching tonight, we've got young folks and old folks and rich folks and not so rich folks is there a bit of advice that is convertible. No matter who you are in life. Yeah. Time is the element here. That's most important. If you're an investor if you have down payment money in the market now, it should never have been there in the first place. If you have ten twenty thirty years to retirement, you ride this out just as you did in two thousand eight just as you did in two thousand just as you did in nineteen ninety four and ninety five nine hundred eighty seven other notable periods where we've had big market down drafts. If
"steve liebmann" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio
"In my sadness is not that you were leaving my sadness is I don't know how many Paul Ryan's. There are behind you. And how many young men and women like you would choose to enter the current political environment for public service. So you were right when we met eight years ago, we are peers. We are colleagues. We became friends. But Paul you are wrong about one thing. We are not equals. You don't have an equal people. Like, you don't come along very often. Congressman Trey Goudy, Robert Costa and Mike two bonus of the Washington Post writing the following quote house speaker Paul Ryan using his final weeks in congress to leave a lasting image of a brainy conservative warrior for lower taxes free markets and a more muscular America abroad. But after two decades in the house three years as speaker that Wisconsin Republicans, a long term legacy is already a matter of fierce debate inside his own party. He was speaker Ryan. We have a good sense of what our politics should look like a great clash of ideas, a civil discourse through which we debate and resolve our differences a system of government. Our system doesn't just allow for that. Our system depends on that one side may win one side may lose we dust ourselves off. And then we started new knowing that each one fought in pursuit of their honest ideals. Today. Too often. Genuine disagreement quickly gives way too intense. Distrust. We spend far more time trying to convict one another. Then we do try to develop our own convictions. Being against someone has more currency than being for anything. And each of us each of us has found ourselves operating on the wrong side of this equation from time to time in all of this gets amplified by technology with an incentive structure that preys on people's fears and elegant rhythms that play on anger. Outrage has become a brand. And as with anything that gets marketed, it gets scaled up, it becomes more industrialized, more cold, more unfeeling. And that's the thing for all the noise there is actually less passionless energy. We sort of defaults too lazy litmus test and shop warned denunciations. It's just emotional pablum fed through a trough of outrage, it's exhausting. It's apps meaning from our politics. And it just Girgis good people from pursuing public service from the NBC news blog. I read available at NBC news dot com. There is this Paul Ryan's ideas did not match up to reality. And joining us on the phone is Chuck Todd, political director moderator of meet the press and meet the press daily on MSNBC. You write that he had big ideas. So what did he accomplish? Well, look, I would say this Paul Ryan's accomplishments are always going to be known for what could have been not for what he actually did. I mean, his greatest accomplishments are offices. He held not necessarily legislation than he offered. I mean, even in his what he will say is a signature build a tax cut Bill. I don't know how well history is gonna look upon it. It wasn't a well conceived tax cut. It was very I think analysts will say was well done in the corporate end. It was sloppy on the individual end. And we may be making up for repairs on that for for some time. But I look at sort of Ryan's farewell speech saying, oh my God. He's he may not realize this. But he's basically delivering a eulogy for his wing of the Republican party. I mean, I do think that Paul Ryan's of victim. Of of sort of the popular uprising in the Republican party. And I also starting to ask myself did we all over estimate that wing of a party did the party leaders over estimate that there was this strong majority for deficit reduction, and I think some of an entitlement reform. I think some of the things that Ryan pushed we're much more unpopular even inside the Republican party. Then we fully realized and it took Donald Trump for everybody, you realize it. And of course, we're seeing that now as the Trump campaign in twenty twenty basically inherited the RNC to make it one seamless operation for his reelection bid. It is one it is Trump's party. Now, if you see there is no more it is hard. There's look there's still within the Republican party in our own polling. You still see the party is still split. You could still find a basically two wings of the party. There is a pro berry pro-trump. The party. And then what I would call the the Trump skeptical wing, which is fine. You know, they don't they're not interested in the alternative yet. They're fine with it. But they're not big fans of him personally. But they're fine with what's his policies. So you still have that divide. But there really is just no traction for for the Paul Ryan policies, Dino that Donald Trump didn't want to attack Medicare for all because he's at during the campaign during the midterm still democratic progressives pushing the idea of Medicare for all he wanted tacky says, hey Medicare. It's got a good brand. I don't want to be seen attacking anything that's named Medicare and it took him a while to convince him to do it. I mean, he couldn't have a more opposite view of government entitlements than Paul Ryan. I mean, it is it is night and day between those two it's hard to believe there. Members of the same party, let alone that they were the two most important leaders of the same party. We're talking with NBC's Chuck Todd. So why did speaker Ryan step down? He said it was for family reasons, he wanted to be with his kids. But certainly he looked at the political landscape earlier this year and saw where we are today. It's hard for me to look at somebody who's forty eight years old. I'd say this. I mean, I like I feel like we've practically came to Washington together. I got here a little bit sooner than he did. We've shared some personal life experiences together that are that are haunting we both had fathers diet when we were sixteen and so I will just tell you this. I look at them as forty eight year old and think to myself if he thought he could still accomplish thanks each day. He looks like a guy who may he looked around. And I think maybe a very rational decision looked around and said I can't accomplish anything in this version of the Republican party. It's probably I could stay and fight. And make sure that I could become the next Jeff flake, which would on one A. I could argue that while Jeff flake has been a martyr for his cause on the right? Is he going to be somebody that helps put Humpty Dumpty back together? Again, if there is a new Republican party. I think Ryan frankly might be making the right call if he hopes to be a part of rebuilding the party in a post Trump world that maybe the right call is to take a break. Take a pause, and frankly, he was never suited to be speaker. This was not the position he was best suited for voice actually thought is best suited to be budget director in an a Republican administration Treasury Secretary, but in speaker of the house. He's just not a political. He doesn't like the political backslapping the way others doing speaker. You gotta be willing to do both of those things a little backslap and play hardball. Any and he didn't like doing either. Chuck todd. Let's turn to another headline the CR that Congress's now. Moving ahead doing what it does best punting on spending Bill, but why because clearly speaker elect Nancy Pelosi is not going to give the president what he wants in. February is just simply to avert a Christmas. Shut down. This is all this is the super to Christmas shutdown and frankly give and it looks like they went all the way to February to give the president the ability to rail on this for his state of the union. We don't have exact date yet. But we're swimming in the last week of January issue first week of February. But February eighth steer clear. Very likely steers puts this after the state of the union. I think it's totally about that. It's about resetting the politics, you know, one of the great. Patterns to Donald Trump. Are is this when he is in a box. He always just wanted to buy time. In his past buying time at filing counter lawsuit or filing something to delay delay that in in this case, he's just buying more time. I mean, I think this is a standard Trump operating procedure here, which is just by more time. And and I it frankly, probably everybody, frankly, Democrats are happy to have the January two themselves as they get their house majority together. And we wanna remind our audience that meet the press is one of the five Sunday shows we re air here on C span radio beginning at noon eastern time is early but give us a sneak preview for this Sunday's program. Well, I'll be speaking with one of the newest entrance into twenty twenty race in Castro from Texas. You know, it's interesting. I the presidential is becoming the Noah's ark. There's two candidates from every state two or more from Texas into from California. We found out today we have to from Colorado, even going governor in this in in the senior Senator they're looking at bids, but I'll be speaking with and Castro and. I also. Got a couple of lawmakers lined up. But I'm always hesitant to start promoting them yet. Just in case, you never know. But I'll also have to lawmakers who've been knee deep in these budget negotiations as well. And of course, we'll watch it Sunday morning. Listen to it here on C span radio. Chuck Todd NBC news moderator of meet the press. We always appreciate your time. On Wall Street. The markets were spooked again today in part with news at the fed will raise interest rates now that rate hike was not a surprise. The NASDAQ tumbling one hundred and forty seven points. The Dow fell nearly three hundred and fifty two the s&p was down thirty nine following its year end meeting the fed downgraded its economic outlook while raising its key interest rate for a fourth time this year, the fed indicating they will only be two hikes next year, essentially downgrading its outlook for two thousand nineteen Jerome Powell is the chair of the Federal Reserve. Today. We raised our target range for the short term interest rates. By another quarter of a percentage point. As I've mentioned most of my colleagues expect the economy to continue to perform well in the coming year. Many FOMC participants had expected that economic conditions would likely call for about three more rate increases in two thousand nineteen. We have brought that down a bit. And now, I think it is more likely that the economy will grow in a way that will call for to interest rate increases over the course of next year. We always emphasize that our policy decisions are not on a preset course in will change incoming data. Materially changed the outlook. And given recent developments the statement notes that we will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook. And so what does that mean? A quarter point rate hike for federal funds. What banks charge each other for overnight loans moving it up from two and a quarter percent to two and a half percent. The news conference which followed and this question from CNBC's senior economics correspondent Steve Liebmann to the fed chair chairman, Stephen Smith CNBC could you tell us how three things affected the outlook for the economy and rates. The first is how the market's decline affected the outlook for the economy, and and for rates the second is trade tensions and the tariff or how you factor that into outlook. And the third is comments by the president urging you not hike rates. So as I mentioned, we we monitor a broad range of economic conditions, including financial conditions, a broad range of financial, conditions and. We took on board the tightening financial conditions, which not anyone condition. But broadly, speaking financial conditions have tightened since the September meeting. Really? So we took that on board in our forecast. That's why the forecast for growth and inflation went down a little bit. But remember that's in the context of a more accommodative path. So we also took down our rate forecasts. So we definitely did take that into account, and as you can see from the statement statement language, we knowledge those risks in the clause about monitoring developments, and we're going to be watching carefully to see as those things develop. I think more broadly. There's been a. A sense of concern among business people and market people about global growth, and that may be partly about trade tensions that may be partly about a variety of things if you if you just mechanically drop into a model of the US economy tariffs, you don't see very large effects, the large effects would have to come from financial market changes from losses and business confidence. And those are those are things that are very difficult to model on your third factor. Political considerations have played no role whatsoever. In our discussions or decisions about monetary policy. We're always going to be focused on the mission that congress has given us we have the tools to carry it about we have the independence, which we think is essential to be able to do our jobs. Get a non-political way. And we are we at the fed are absolutely committed to that mission. And nothing will the tourists from doing what we think is is the right thing to do. Joining us on the phone with more on today's developments. Steve Liebmann senior economics correspondent for CNBC. And Steve as expected the fed raised rates downgrading its twenty nine thousand nine economic outlook..
"steve liebmann" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio
"Street. The markets were spooked again today in part with news that the fed will raise interest rates now that rate hike was not a surprise. The NASDAQ tumbling one hundred and forty seven points. The Dow fell nearly three hundred and fifty two the s&p was down thirty nine following its year end meeting the fed downgraded its economic outlook while raising its key interest rate for a fourth time this year, the fed indicating they will only be two hikes next year, essentially downgrading its outlook for two thousand nineteen Jerome Powell is the chair of the Federal Reserve. Today. We raised our target range for the short term interest rates. By another quarter of a percentage point. As I've mentioned most of my colleagues expect the economy to continue to perform well in the coming year. Many FOMC participants had expected that economic conditions would likely call for about three more rate increases in two thousand and nineteen. We have brought that down a bit. And now think it is more likely that the economy will grow in a way that will call for to interest rate increases over the course of next year. We always emphasize that our policy decisions on a preset course and will change if incoming data materially changed the outlook. And given recent developments the statement notes that we will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook. And so what does that mean? A quarter point rate hike for federal funds. What banks charge each other for overnight loans moving it up from two and a quarter percent to two and a half percent. The news conference which followed and this question from CNBC's senior economics correspondent Steve lease men to the fed chair. Stephen Smith CNBC, could you tell us how three things affected the outlook for the economy and rates. The first is how the market's decline. Affected, the outlook for the economy, and and for rates the second is trade tensions and the tariff or how you factor that into your outlook. And the third is comments by the president urging you not to hike rates. So as I mentioned. We we monitor a broad range of economic conditions, including financial conditions abroad range of financial, conditions and. We took on board the tightening and financial conditions which not anyone condition. But broadly, speaking financial conditions have tightened since the September meeting. Really? So we took that on board in our forecast. That's why the forecasts for growth and inflation went down a little bit. But remember that's context of a more accommodative path. So we also took down our rate forecast. So we we definitely did take that into account, and as you can see from the state statement language, we knowledge those risks in the clause about monitoring developments, and we're going to be watching carefully to see has those things develop. I think more broadly. There's been a. A sense of concern among business people and market people about about global growth, and that may be partly about trade tensions. It may be partly about a variety of things if you if you just mechanically drop into a model of the US economy tariffs, you don't see very large effects. The large effects would have to come from financial market changes are from losses in business confidence. And those are those are things that are very difficult to model on your third factor. Political considerations have played no role whatsoever. In our discussions or decisions about monetary policy. We're always going to be focused on the mission that congress has given us we have the tools to carry it about we have the independence, which we think is essential to be able to do our jobs. Get a non-political way. And we are we at the fed are absolutely committed to that mission. And nothing will the tourists from doing what we think is is the right thing to do. Joining us on the phone with more on today's developments. Steve Liebmann senior economics correspondent for CNBC. And Steve as expected the fed raised rates downgrading its twenty one thousand nine economic outlook. But investors still we're not satisfied with what they heard today from Jerome Powell why I think one way to think about it Steve is at the market wanted total capitulation from the Federal Reserve on the issue of not raising rates next year. So they're gonna only partial capitulation before the meeting the average fed official had forecast three rate hikes next year. They brought that down to two and as you said they could reduce the growth outlook for next year somewhat. But they still want to hike in the market right snap right now wants no interest rate hikes. It was fascinating watching the markets as he was speaking to you and other reporters almost a split screen moment where the market was up with stable, and then it went down big time after he finished his remarks. Got to be a little careful in ascribing real human reactions here. There's a lot of algorithms trade going on some people had said the market was poised to sell off. Anyway. But certainly the market did not get the largely of totally dovish outlook on rates for next year that they expected and also set your material penalty not offer some more flexibility on these groups do sing it's balance. A you remember that they added some four trillion dollars of securities financial crisis in order to push interest rates down at Boston's things up. So that the rates of them would be lower. And the fed is now in the process of unwinding that some in the market went perfect to be more sensitive to the economic outlook. But it showed the fed is on a pretty formulate program here to reduce the balance sheet and j indicated really no give on that score either. And Steve unlike his predecessors, Donald Trump has been very vocal very critical fed policy, and he's not afraid to do. So on Twitter. He was asked about that earlier today in the news conference. You were there. Here's his response. I'm not worried because about on the first question because I know everyone who works at the fed knows that we're going to do our jobs that we've always done them. And that involves. Getting the best thinking together diverse perspectives. We every every business every FOMC cycle. We talked to hundreds of people in all different parts of society. Not just business people are market people. But people from community development organizations, we get survey data from thousands of people. And so we really do have a pretty broad exposure to what's going on in all different parts of the country. And we're gonna take all of that information. And we're gonna make the best decisions we can't and nothing will will cause us to deviate from that the chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, and we're Cockman Steve Liebmann here in Washington. But do those tweets box in the fed box in the fed chair. I think they have an effect. I know that says they don't. But look if you follow Twitter, there's a lot of hate Twitter now about the settlers eight Twitter about Powell and a lot of that was prompted by the president as much as they like to suggest there. Officials are human beings, and they also like to do their interest rate changes in context of agreement with either markets or the population in general. They don't want to be the ones pushing against it. But of course, part of the job is always to take the Punch Bowl away is what was described. You know, when when when the party goers get drunk? It's part of what their job is. So it kinda comes with the territory. But there was a reason why the other presidents did not speak about the data of the reason was because they want to have the fed to have to lean the other way against it depended. So Donald Trump may well be having the opposite. We actually at the Federal Reserve and intense at the MAURICE speaks the more. The fed has to dig into the opposite of what the president wants a quarter point rate increase effective today by the fed what what can we expect in two thousand nineteen? Well, they're looking for another half a point. And of course, I think people know that you know, the stakes probably make mortgages somewhat more expensive make auto on somewhat were expensive their variable. Rates on the credit cards will go up a bit. Here is that in the zone forecast. The fed is closer to being done raising rates that is to begin a great great. So that's probably good news. What that means for average consumers is the federal end this rate hike cycle at a much lower rate than it ever did. In fact, you will end this rate hike cycle at a point that it used to bring it down to and PVS rate hike cycles. So interest rates will remain low just not as low as they were the crisis. But they certainly won't go up to the average rates of five six seven percent on say treasury yields are things that we had before they'll remain low. But people who have variable rate mortgages going out to get a mortgage might end up paying a little bit more. I would point out Stephen that. Late even while the fed has been raising rates. Long-term rates have come down. So the market has kind of been moving against where the fed wants rates to go. We will look for your reporting on CNBC and on the web Steve Liebmann joining us on the phone here in Washington as always we appreciate your time actually Thursday on C span radio the homeland security secretary cure Sten.
"steve liebmann" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"If you look at it that way, but I don't I don't think that that was was a major change in policy at that point. Okay. So do the fed just give Wall Street. The all clear sign is it safe to buy again. And do you think what pulsa today is very different from what he said in October three close a lot of questions guy. Role that because we were having this discussion with Steve and the economist out there still saying, you know, what what he said what he said today wasn't all that different forty seven October. The markets are taking a very different way, though, became more pragmatic today. And last night, we started show Pete said that he saw short-term buying the SNP's Tim was talking about how and in the shorter term, the S and P was vastly oversold to the downside was due for having dinner you having dinner hopefully enjoyed I did. And and we also talked about now I thought the market rally, but I thought the market would rally on the back of president Xi and President Trump having some handshake, my best friend. We have a path going forward. I didn't think it would really end up back to the fed. So what does it mean now? Well, now, it's interesting. I think this gives President Trump couple more cards to play this weekend. Right. The market's rally now he can take a more hawkish stance now with the Chinese as opposed to a couple of days ago when the market was sort of really so this could actually be a bad for this. Criticism that Trump made into the Washington Post yesterday, which we were all sort of middle over right? And that is that he's trying to make deals in the fed is not being accommodating, and here, we are all of a sudden Drome Powell is more Commodore. We get a third, man. When the market sold off. Right. So it was a long way from neutral now just below neutral. That's all you need to know granted trades going to be a headwind, but this was about the fed the sell off. So we're halfway there. I think you could make an argument though, that the fed has downgraded the economy. I mean, what's neutral in an environment where you've got fiscal runoff next year. You've got the. Checking on me with a lower. Wasn't that affect was happening now? Okay. Yes. Do I think markets were pricing and slower growth. I would go back to Steve Liebmann question that guy didn't even answer. And asks me, that's true. I took it upon myself name. But the answer to that question is we would rather see more growth and more fed because that's really ultimately what we'd rather be is. I'd like to say a growth scares a lot worse for markets than inflation scare and I think the feds stepping back. Ultimately, isn't a great thing. But yes Powell needed to reiterate that the fed is going to be data dependent. And yet There there was was plenty plenty. as a good rate hike. I think the markets want lower rates. Unfortunately, I think that with growth people do the calculus the rates move higher risk on equities move lower. Well, it is we're still at historical low levels in terms of rates, and that's something pal pointed out, but he also said look we are going to be data dependent. Don't just sit there and say we are going to be Hake hiking this many times. And I think he said enough things today that I think people really just said, you know, what we can get our arms around this economy was good good. Not not not overheating. But good, right? So I think that everybody read into that. What would they did? And that's why we saw the market react the way, by the way. Unbelievable paper in the last couple of days in terms of everything being so short term Mel either expiring Friday or going out maybe one more week. But you know, you talked about the spiders, we had SMH we had Microsoft, we at Intel we had all kinds of monstrous buys the industrials ETF exceleye, everything very. Aggressive everything very very short. We did not have volume for three days in a row until today so rates stay lower for longer. Maybe or at least there's the possibility at this point. What do you buy? I mean, what do you buy theoretically? Right. Those growth stocks which were not looking so good in the face of higher interest rates. They're looking better. Now, aren't they? I guess, but I mean..
"steve liebmann" Discussed on MAD MONEY W/ JIM CRAMER
"Business sentiment survey showed it in uptick, entrepreneurs or more. Nearly every aspect of business this fall compared to early summer. The port said, yes, that's not. We want to see boy the second the paychecks IHS born gets small business employment wash numbers came out today to naked us. The negativity were hoping for get this one hourly earnings rose point eight to two point four percent year over year while job growth, the crease point seven seven percent from a year ago. That's right. Decrease point seven seven hot that means workers have gotten to expensive. So companies aren't hiring as many people as they were that is key. But for you to excited Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to an eighteen year, high something fortunately, good news that gives Powell more ammo and Steve Liebmann learn from Janet Yellen, and she's worried about it overheating economy. However, she saw so worried about volatility. Is plumbing and having one of his worst months in ages. But if the price of Chris falling precipitously, how the heck can the economy be taught to handle does that make any sense to you eight about place out much, just the big macro data. But also in the micro. What does it mean that Under Armour had a much better than expected quarter lowering the stock rally twenty-seven percent, David favor of this morning? Asked me isn't that convincing bit of anecdotal evidence. That could be right because continue mealy came back and said, whoa, wait a second. It was strengthened international. Did it? I said it was really reflection that Under Armour's head debit entries. Finally been cleaned up. One way another way one way or another one who cares about under normal when genie just put a staggering loss cuts different dramatically. Senate Stockton, eight point eight percent, ten bucks and change level. We haven't seen since April two thousand nine bed numbers from gee, what a lifesaver on Facebook important tonight in the stock was up and down up and down and up and down either up and down and then down and up and up which inspires me. The confidence fear frankly now what some this one. If you went stocks go higher, we need to see definitively mixed not. But look we don't wanna see bad data because then the companies aren't gonna make the numbers we just need to see mixed data mixed data. Like the figures we've got today that allows pal to put his rate hikes on hold after the next tightening December which I favor because if the economy's already slowing then he could say, you know, what the data's week. Let's wait and see bottom on never forget when the Fed's tightening at this point in the business bed. Bad bad. News is good news. The more bad news. We get more fabulous days. Like today. We hit have pal and his colleagues just need to be willing to look at the data to make them more thoughtful Putin evaluate. If they've moved once in the month of December, I.
"steve liebmann" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"All the headlines from the quarter. Plus retail stocks soaring today and the surprising winner over the last week. But should you trust the bounce the traders will explain when fast money returns? Welcome back to fast money. We've got a news alert on comments made by the former fed chair Janet Yellen. Let's get to our own Eamonn Moines. BC along Melissa yellow was speaking with our colleague Steve Liebmann at the Schwab impact conference earlier. She had said that there was a danger that the economy could overheat. But now she's acknowledging also that there's a risk that the fed could tighten too much than that risk would increase around the year twenty twenty she also spoke about the deficit. She said that is a major problem and that the US is on an unsustainable path for the national debt. He said if she had a magic wand, she would raise taxes and cut retirement spending. She spoke about the tariffs as well thanked. He's particularly concerned about the impact on investment spending over the next year or two, but she sees only a temporary in small impact on inflation. She said she does not see inflation pressures building rapidly Yellen. Also, defended the Fed's independence and light of criticism from President Trump saying that she would do exactly what Jay Powell is doing which is to keep calm and carry on back over to you, Melissa. All right, Yvonne. Thank you, Ellen Moyen DC twenty twenty that seems to coincide with many people think of recession could enter the picture. Right. Exactly. And so the I mean again that is what the stock market is telling you, the confounding part of this or the conundrum if you will is that the bond market hasn't really said that yet the bond market is still predicting a lot of growth next year, and they're not necessarily predicting a recession, I know the yield curves flat. But if you look at the ten year, they're saying, there's a disconnect there. So somebody's wrong. Something's the honest disconnect on inflation with with Yellen versus Powell as well. Or actually there's not because palace said that that flation is not any danger of running away run runaway. Either. Are we really surprised at Janet Yellen? His dovish. I mean, this is this is all she's doing is expressing dubbed of dove, the fed independence. God bless her. I think this is a very important point. And I I would expect. Every major fed official in our outside of the fed should continued Accu this, but everything she just said Santa like fed that wants to be dovish. That's what she was. Good for Jin doing a book tour simmer session. While even the least minute DC. I mean, I don't think she said anything groundbreaking, obviously, the fed should be independent good for her recession twenty twenty. I still think market selloff causes a recession more than recession causes market selloff guide. You had a magic wand. What would you wave it? And do I would by the New York Knicks, and I would make wholesale changes. But that's me. Yes question that you got a great anthem with them. You. That you go for I had a magic why didn't knows hunger world peace and trade on it with a mixture. That important. He said always honest deep. I. This honest, walk down the fault. So they had EBay soaring after its earnings report that suck up more than five percent. After hours is this the recent retail rally got legs will explain much more fat right after this. Welcome back to pass money. We've got a quick earnings update. Here tech. Shares of EBay the sock is rallying up almost six percent after its earnings beat. And it's not the only sign of consumer strength in the market. We've been seeing odd is on these at the NYSE breaking it all down. Hey, Bob, Melissa is retail finally hitting bottom after a month where retailer sold off along with the rest of the market moose. We tillers are having a pretty good week. Take a look big names. Like a sina Macy's Chico's. They're up ten percent in the last couple of days. Most of the gains are coming today. Still most of the retailers do not report earnings for several weeks. Now the question for retailers is pretty simple are we near or at peak sales com store sales have been great for the second quarter..
Janet Yellen talks Fed politics and nurturing economic recovery
"Welcome back to fast money. We've got a news alert on comments made by the former fed chair Janet Yellen. Let's get to our own Eamonn Moines. BC along Melissa yellow was speaking with our colleague Steve Liebmann at the Schwab impact conference earlier. She had said that there was a danger that the economy could overheat. But now she's acknowledging also that there's a risk that the fed could tighten too much than that risk would increase around the year twenty twenty she also spoke about the deficit. She said that is a major problem and that the US is on an unsustainable path for the national debt. He said if she had a magic wand, she would raise taxes and cut retirement spending. She spoke about the tariffs as well thanked. He's particularly concerned about the impact on investment spending over the next year or two, but she sees only a temporary in small impact on inflation. She said she does not see inflation pressures building rapidly Yellen. Also, defended the Fed's independence and light of criticism from President Trump saying that she would do exactly what Jay Powell is doing which is to keep calm and carry on back over to you, Melissa. All right, Yvonne. Thank you, Ellen Moyen DC twenty twenty that seems to coincide with many people think of recession could enter the picture. Right. Exactly. And so the I mean again that is what the stock market is telling you, the confounding part of this or the conundrum if you will is that the bond market hasn't really said that yet the bond market is still predicting a lot of growth next year, and they're not necessarily predicting a recession, I know the yield curves flat. But if you look at the ten year, they're saying, there's a disconnect there. So somebody's wrong. Something's the honest disconnect on inflation with with Yellen versus Powell as well. Or actually there's not because palace said that that flation is not any danger of running away run runaway. Either. Are we really surprised at Janet Yellen? His dovish. I mean, this is this is all she's doing is expressing dubbed of dove, the fed independence. God bless her. I think this is a very important point. And I I would expect. Every major fed official in our outside of the fed should continued Accu this, but everything she just said Santa like fed that wants to be dovish. That's what she was. Good for Jin doing a book tour simmer session. While even the least minute DC. I mean, I don't think she said anything groundbreaking, obviously, the fed should be independent good for her recession twenty twenty. I still think market selloff causes a recession more than recession causes market selloff guide. You had a magic wand. What would you wave it? And do I would by the New York Knicks, and I would make wholesale changes. But that's me. Yes question that you got a great anthem with them. You. That you go for I had a magic why didn't knows hunger world peace and trade on it with a mixture. That important. He said always honest deep. I. This honest, walk down the fault.
"steve liebmann" Discussed on MAD MONEY W/ JIM CRAMER
"Kip during the same thing. Same refrain enough for the fed, bring on the earnings. Folks wish you were that simple. I've been doing this almost forty years now. I can tell, you know, and certain terms that you cannot ignore the Federal Reserve, not at this point in the business cycle. Let me let me be crystal clear about this when the titans to make it more expensive to get short term. Look, lots of companies allowed short-term financing. So literally raising the cost of doing business everyday for years didn't matter why because so incredibly low. Now, new Fitch eve, Jerome Powell nice man is talking about going from two point two, five to three point, two, five percent by the end of next year for these short rates guys, that's serious. So despite the relatively strong numbers, we saw from the from the big banks today. I'm actually concerned that we could be headed for big trouble. Earnings fence determine keep tightening. If we get the promise rate hike in December, followed them by three more rate hikes next year, no matter how to Connie my get. I'm betting that. 'cause exceleron to could be a. Serious comic slow. I don't think actual sessions on the table too strong, but if we moved to celebrate for percents, peacoat down two percent, that's going to hurt a lot of stocks. Remember I care about the economy, but I also care about stocks and make mistakes economies origin started to deteriorate. Very recently. The thing that Turkey's Wall Street though is not that the autos Nokor gated packaging, all sorts of chemicals doing worse. It's at the fed, seems oblivious to the facts. Graham is back in that old ivory tower that they often have it or we're, they're actually different. When pal talked about overshooting last week, he was sending a signal these happy. Keep tightening in, does some cladding damage the real Connie and the working person that will bleed into the stock market, Charles Evans from the fed in Chicago did the same thing today interview Steve Liebmann. It's almost like they don't care. Now this very morning JP Morgan's Jamie diamond warned that there could be significant global headwinds. That could hurt our Konami sound a lot less sanguine. Then when he spoke to ten twenty. Worth back in Philly fed doesn't take me seriously. Hey, we saw that in minutes eleven years ago, but maybe they listen to the CEO of the world's largest banks don't get me wrong fed really believe really. We really need a quarter point in December. I am going to be fine with it. I'm not gonna fight a quarter point, but committing all ready to three more rate hikes on top of that and twenty nineteen. Well, that kind of feels like lunacy to me. Here's a crazy idea rather than trying to overshoot maybe the fed could just look at the data and try to get right. See there was this person. Janet Yellen cheese run the fed. Quick job use that method. It worked at the worked now look Donnelly. We seen a slowdown in sector after sector in the last seven weeks, but we just got a weaker than expected. Consumer price index over many. Inflation can't really be raging when you get one of those the whole point of lockstep rate hikes to fight inflation. But the guy was okay. So here's what's about to happen. Three lockstep rate hikes. Next year will slow growth boost the dollar, make people feel less wealthy. That is a fatal cocktail when that makes it very difficult for most companies to raise their forecast and the one particular of higher stock prices higher earnings estimates in the future, the best predictive lower stock prices when companies cut their forecasts..
"steve liebmann" Discussed on On Point with Tom Ashbrook | Podcasts
"Downturn had in economic policy that he put forward. It was his tax cut program. He argued that his tax cut program was his economic policy. There was an the argument Republicans made in the tax cut was out. We ges this, this tax cut would redound to the benefit of workers, paychecks. It was a tax cut that disproportionately favored the wealthy. It was a corporate tax cut in most part. The argument was that corporate tax cut would be used to buy corporations to increase wages, and that has not happened. The money has gone to shareholder buybacks, and the truth of it is we could see that coming because corporations have been highly profitable over the last several years and and they've used that profitability, not to wages, and and the tax cut is just another form and other. Way to boost corporate profitability strain. I mean, earlier in the hour, Michael, you said that it might be a little too soon to completely to assess completely the president's tax cut law. What do you think? I mean, how long do we have to wait before we can say near is right workers haven't really benefited from this. Yeah, I disagree with a lot of of what nearest said and that's that's a big part of the reason why I think that we need to wait at least a few years at least two years in order to to look at the productivity. Six look at the wage statistics and see whether or not increased business investment actually is accruing to the benefit of workers. Part of the confusion around this I think, is driven by the administration, you know, kind of understandably trying to hype. The short-term immediate benefits of of of of the tax cut. But there there's a fundamental misunderstanding that I think is reflected in in nearest comments. The idea was not that you give corporations more money by lowering their tax rates and then looking to see what corporations do with that extra money. And does that extra money go to workers or does that extra money go to shareholders that that fundamentally misunderstands the the economics play here? The question is whether by making investment more profitable, do you increase investment and if you increase investment, does that translate into productivity and wage growth? And that requires some time, so narrow, what do you think of that respond. Just wrong. I mean the truth is that the argument that Republicans made during this process was that in and you saw it immediately after the Bill passed they and they had a spate of stories about increase wages, the argument they made and it it, you know, it's not my argument. It was their argument and they made it directly companies would take these. Basically, we're adding to the profitability of companies and those companies will translate everyone within the company will benefit. And if you want to have a policy to increase productivity, and I do think we do need to increase productivity, you could increase investment. You could do a bunch of other things adding to the corporate bottom line of a company is not necessarily the fastest way to do that. That was the argument that Republicans made. And I think the truth is we actually can see in real time corporate behavior. From the benefit of the tax cut. Corporations are behaving obviously not every corporation is the same that we see that core that tax cut translating into an increase in shareholder buybacks, a broad trend, but in exceleron of shareholder buy backs, and we see we do see an increase in CEO pay the jump in here because Jack's cut, they don't. They are excel A-Rated by the tax cuts. Let me jump in your. We're just going to agree. The U2. are going to disagree, but Steve Liebmann you wanted to get in on this fan. Treasures quickly, separation, the two things. First, there's the individual side of tax cut. Then there's the business side on the individual side. Our polling data from CNBC shows only thirty, four percent of the public are seeing more money in their paychecks because of the tax cuts forty-nine percent or not..
"steve liebmann" Discussed on On Point with Tom Ashbrook | Podcasts
"This is a good story. My hunch is is going to go on for quite a while. It's not just one quarter. All right. So there's the take from the Trump administration. My guests are Steve Liebmann, senior economics reporter for CNBC and Michael strain director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and gentlemen, let's go to some calls. Let's go to Bob who's calling from bravado North Carolina, Bob, you're on the air. Thanks for calling. Hi, Anthony thing. I just want to say that you know, that has been Obon us fifty and Judy gross. So Trump is going to blame the president forever, seeing that he also should give him some credit. Some of the things that you get. The other thing is that you know what we're not talking about here is the nine hundred pound love is in the room that it will to both these. The apocalypse, which is the budget deficit and are multi trillion dollar debt which is crowding private capital out of the bond market. It's keeping long term interest rates. I, which means that it's pushing, it's gonna, push mortgage rates higher. And the reality is that housing and home ownership is such an important part of this economy, and if we cannot do something to spur those sectors of the economy and also to reduce the budget deficit long term, we have serious structural problems in the American economy that are directly the result of this great lie at the twentieth century, which is supply side economics. This riverboat gamble that all of the Republicans drink the Kool aid off. All right, we got it Bob. I mean, Michael strain had begun to address this before the break, but Michael, pick that up again, this idea that deficits running out of control can crowd out a lot of the. Oxygen in an otherwise healthy economy? Yeah, I think I think it's a real issue and it's an issue that presidents of both parties have have contributed to George W Bush Barack Obama. Donald Trump have all made our our deficit in in debt situation. Worse there, the the concerns that we're, you know, a few months away from a from a debt crisis or something like that, I think are overblown. But I also think that we need to take seriously the fact that unless we reduce the trajectory of the dead, changed the trajectory of the debt. So the debt as a share of GDP is declining, whether the, whether the increasing then we will have negative economic consequences from that, we will have a slower GDP growth. We will have a less productive workforce that that can command lower wages in in the labor market and in our standard of living will drop relative to what it should be. We also run the risk of not. Being able to adequately respond to major macroeconomic events. Like if I crisis like a recession and you know, we, we open ourselves up to more serious consequences depending on how much more serious situation gets, but this is something that Washington should be taking seriously. It's something that President Trump is not taking seriously and and I think it's a a major weakness in his economic policy program. Yes, Steve, Steve Liebmann. I mean, it's interesting. The Republican party for a long time was the party of the deficit hawks that doesn't seem to be true of Trump's brand of republicanism. No, and it wasn't true of other brands of republicanism either. They have never really huge to that when they were in power. One of the ways that growth was kept down during the Obama years was after the initial financial crisis spending package government spending was was really down during a lot of the Obama administration. We're not not as much growth as. As would have been commensurate with the economy. The trouble with the whole deficit story is it doesn't matter until it matters right now. You have about a three percent cost of money over ten years for the government which is not out tremendously onerous and all the people who have said that at x percent of GDP the debt will create a crisis have been wrong essentially all the way up. And now we're depending on how you want to measure it seventy or eighty percent of GDP..
"steve liebmann" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Come back to that. Joe Kernan interviewed will blast. Why does the fact this is vastly without unequivocally without one hundred days and that is that those can those in my pin, whether he thought of this or not, I'm not suggesting either way, but if the market were to sell off those comments, give him air cover to say, you see what happened fed, raise rates are condoms doing so beauty when fast I went, they went to fast, so it gives. And we talked about this. When when he talked about the market being a report card, I administration what excuse could they use the market, went down in my opinion. Now this gives them a natural excuse. If in fact, the market does go lower. All right. For more on this, let's bring him CNBC's, senior economics reporter, Steve Liebmann, Steve. What do you think any influence at the fed? I don't think so, but I wish I had a videotape. I could roll back and play what Brian Kelly just said. And I think he may have hit the nail on the head here, which is this idea that the trade war has now morphed into something of a fed were here. And I think Melissa, you also spoke about this, and I hadn't really considered that other than the fact that I do know that the thing the president mentioned here, which is the Chinese Yuan is weakening apparently in response to these tariffs that are out there. So what are you? Have you have step number one, which is you have the tariffs you have the retaliatory tariffs. You have the, you wan- weakening, you have the dollar strengthening. And so now the president has to come back and has to kind of, I don't know what the right word is bully or otherwise, cajole the Federal Reserve to say, you know what? We need you to stop raising these rates so far because we're getting killed on the you want. So this, I think what we have here is potentially, and I'm just speculating right now is another fallout from the trade war now coming into potentially influencing fed policy. And I just wanted to just had real quickly Melissa that I think the fed has to consider. After this and I don't know how much they have to consider it, but the idea that the dollar may strengthen which could have a negative impact on the economy because of the trade war does indeed become a fed policy issue. So soft, all you guys, I think I think you've gotta interesting take out into the major problem for the markets. We heard that yesterday at delivering alpha mirror does had mentioned that the dollar the Dixie is a one year high right now that you wanted a one year low. I mean this this could come into play when it comes to earn season as well, right? One hundred percent in Marietta and Seaview Caesar's what Mary does come. It's fascinating to me the one thing JP Morgan. The biggest thing that one of the fears that keeps them up on paraphrasing was the moves that they're seeing in currencies did moves typically happen over months now happen over days, and I don't think that's enlarge part due in my opinion to central banks. I mean, Steve can chime in, but I think the central banks globally have inserted themselves way too much in the conversation. Okay. It's on. I'm just not sure. That's right. Because I think that what the fed is doing right now is the fed is on a program that's been really pretty much pre-announced more than a year year and a half ago, and I've gotten some tweets from folks who said, look, the fed is playing politics, raising rates under Trump and not under yellow. Well, of course, it's Trump's guy and also the vice-chairman who are out there raising rates according to a prior plan. That pretty much seems to have agreement not only in the markets which don't seem all that affected by it. But also by the way in congress, if you notice yesterday the last two days, not much pushback on Powell for the Fed's rate hikes. Hey, Steve, I'm curious. You talked of central bankers all day long and typically their responses. Well, the dollar the currency is the treasury's concern. But when you talk to these bankers, how much do they really worry about a rising dollar and the impact that their policies are having on that right show, Brian, you're saying, I talked to central bankers all day long means there. Now people lined up for my job as. Well, here's the thing..
"steve liebmann" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio
"Overall financial conditions remain accommodative these observations are consistent with the projections that committee participants submitted for this meeting the median projection for the growth of real gdp is two point eight percent this year two point four percent next year and two percent in two thousand and twenty compared with the projections made in march this median growth path is little changed in the labor market job gains averaged one hundred and eighty thousand per month over the past three months well above the pace needed in the longer run to provide jobs for new entrance into the workforce the employment rate declined over the past two months and stood at three point eight percent in may its lowest level in nearly two decades meanwhile the labor force participation rate has been roughly unchanged since late two thousand and thirteen that is a positive sign giving it the aging of our population is putting downward pressure on the participation rate and we expect the job market to remain strong and one other note today's hike by the fed marking the seventh time interest rates went up the tightening began under the former fed chair janet yellen back in two thousand fifteen here's more from today's news conference with the current chair jerome powell and this question from steve liebmann of cnbc steve liebmann cnbc vista chairman you sit there is a difference of opinion among economists but looking at the longer run gdp growth rates for the members of the committee there's not a whole lot of difference it's one eight two two or one seven two two one depending on how you count it is that showing us that not a single member of the committee including yourself mr chairman agrees with the communists over at the white house that they can achieve long run sustained growth rates above or at three percent or higher do you believe in that you know the first one that that's a that's a reasonable range i think of it's not that we're all on the same number but there were there are a range of us about potential growth and there's so much uncertainty around this you know we don't the thing about fiscal policy is you don't have thousands of incidents to you know to you don't have big data in a way you have very small data you've got only a few instances here so you you have a lot of uncertainty around what.
"steve liebmann" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Yeah fast one starts right now live from the nasdaq marcus i had overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa leo traders on the desk or tim seymour david seabird dan nathan guide zombie tonight on fast the media bidding frenzy is on comcast mckay sixty five billion dollar bid for fox willfully disney and the dust what does it mean for the rest of the media space all the details and the trades plus kenya trust crypto a new study says bitcoins big run to twenty thousand wasn't all that it seemed to been the man behind the explosive report will be here to explain but first we start off with the big story of the day the federal reserve hiking rates for the second time this year let's get straight to steve liebmann who was at the news conference with jerome powell earlier today steve birch most yeah and mortar come the fed raising rates by a quarter point the new range is one point seven five to two point two percent and it signaled further rate hikes ahead and what fed chairman jerome powell described as a robust at us economy i would say that the economy's in great shape if you look at household surveys confidences high look at business confidence is high if you ask if you survey workers about the job market they'll say that it's a really good environment to find jobs survey businesses they'll say that workers are scarce so i think overall we have we have a really solid commun our hands here and so what we're doing is we are trying to conduct monetary policy in a way that will sustain that expansion keep the labor markets strong and keep inflation of right at sorry not above but right at two percent.
"steve liebmann" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio
"The rates by what's known as twenty five basis points following the meeting of the open market of the central bank here in washington and steve liebmann with this question to the fed chair mr chairman welcome interesting changes in the forecast higher growth forecast a full point above the long run lower unemployment seven tenths below the long run and yet very little change in inflation what does that say about what you and the committee believe about the inflation dynamic and how is it that in that context you justify three rate hikes this year and i said so be three next year and a full six hundred billion i guess annual rate decline in the balance sheet where's your biggest concern here is in overkill when it comes to rates or or under kill so you're right that the outlook did improve as i mentioned in as you as was in your question the committee's estimates of growth went up the committee's estimates of unemployment went down and there was a very slight increase inflation and i think that reflects essentially if you think back to the air after the crisis unemployment was ten percent it's now four point one percent you've only seen very gradual upward pressures on inflation and wages despite that very large increase in that suggests that the relationship between changes in slack and inflation is is not so tight but it it has diminished but it but it's still there so i think when you see those small changes in unemployment that simply reflects the you know the the flatness of the phillips phillips curve if you will you biggest concern rescuers hello i think we're trying to we're trying to be to take the middle ground there so on the one hand the.
"steve liebmann" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio
"The prices of energy and food and it's typically a better indicator of future inflation rose one point five percent over the same period however as we have noted for some time the shortfall of inflation from two percent reflects at least partly some unusual price declines that occurred neely a year ago in coming months as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation inflation should move up closer to two percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term of course various forces will continue to affect inflation at times it may be above two percent just as at times it may be below our inflation objective is symmetric in the sense that we are trying to prevent persistent deviations from two percent in either direction based on the projections that committee participants submitted for this meeting the median projection for the growth of inflation adjusted gdp is two point seven percent this year two point four percent next year and two percent in two thousand and twenty a bit above its estimated longer run rate the median projection for unemployment for the unemployment rate stands at three point eight percent in the fourth quarter of this year and runs at three point six percent over the next two years almost a percentage point below the median estimate of it's longer run normal rate finally the meeting inflation projection is one point nine percent this year two percent next year and two point one percent in two thousand and twenty compared with the projections bayden december real gdp growth is stronger the unemployment rate is lower and inflation is slightly higher as i noted earlier today's decision to raise the federal funds rate is another step in the process of gradually scaling back monetary policy accommodation as the economic expansion continues this gradual process has been underway for more than two years and it has served and should continue to serve the economy well in making our policy decisions over the next few years we will continue to aim for inflation of two percent while sustaining economic expansion and a strong labor market in the committee's view further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote these goals you can listen to the entire forty five minute news conference with jerome powell the chair of the federal reserve it's on our website at c span dot org cnbc's steve liebmann men reporting on the federal reserve deciding to raise.
"steve liebmann" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio
"The prices of energy and food and is typically a better indicator of future inflation rose one point five percent over the same period however as we have noted for some time the shortfall of inflation from two percent reflects at least partly some unusual price declines that occurred nearly a year ago in coming months as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation inflation should move up closer to two percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term of course various forces will continue to affect inflation at times it may be above two percent just as at times it may be below our inflation objective is symmetric in the sense that we are trying to prevent persistent deviations from two percent in either direction based on the projections that committee participants submitted for this meeting the median projection for the growth of inflation adjusted gdp is two point seven percent this year two point four percent next year and two percent in two thousand and twenty a bit above its estimated longer run rate the median projection for unemployment for the unemployment rate stands at three point eight percent in the fourth quarter of this year and runs at three point six percent over the next two years almost a percentage point below the median estimate of it's longer run normal rate finally the meeting inflation projection is one point nine percent this year two percent next year and two point one percent in two thousand twenty compared with the projections made in december real gdp growth is stronger the unemployment rate is lower and inflation is slightly higher as noted earlier today's decision to raise the federal funds rate is another step in the process of gradually scaling back monetary policy accommodation as the economic expansion continues this gradual process has been underway for more than two years and it has served and should continue to serve the economy wealth in making our policy decisions over the next few years we will continue to aim for inflation of two percent while sustaining economic expansion and a strong labor market in the committee's view further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote these goals you can listen to the entire forty five minute news conference with jerome powell the chair of the federal reserve it's on our website at c span dot org cnbc's steve liebmann reporting on the federal reserve deciding to raise.
"steve liebmann" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Gosh fast money starts right now live from the nasdaq market i'd overlooking new york's snowy times square her i'm melissa lear traders on the desk are pena jerry seib brosseau david seeburg and tim seymour tonight on fast the facebook fallout rages on but the stock snapping his losing streak ending today in the green in one of the trainers bought the social media giant today you'll explain why he thinks the bottom is in plus the winner the facebook fallout it might be walked chain atop analyst at rbc will explain why the data scandal could be the next big catalyst for the technology what it might mean for big tech stuff but first we start with the federal reserve decision to raise rates fed chair jerome powell towing the line not to hawkish not too dovish let's get to our own steve liebmann down in dc for more see what was your take you know first of all is to tell people exactly what happened it was the first press conference for fed chairman j powell and the fed hiked rates as expected by a quarter point here's the new range folks one and a half to one and three quarters percent the fed did also signal more gradual rate hikes ahead now also up the outlook for growth and lowered the forecast for unemployment down to three point six percent from the current four point one percent next year also raise the outlook for interest rates here you go not this year one forecast short from fed official for four hikes this year so remains at three but up the two point nine percent next year and a strong three point four percent in twenty twenty but it did not move the inflation barometer flaking outlook and i asked chairman jay powell how they could forecast better growth low unemployment but not more inflation.