18 Burst results for "Stephanie Kelton"
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is balance of power on Bloomberg television and radio. I'm David Weston. We got those much anticipated CPI numbers this morning for the last month in the United States and attended to confirm apparently what we thought we'd been seeing in recent months, which is actually the pace of inflation is actually ameliorating. To take us through it though, from an economics point of view, we welcome Stephanie kelton. She's Professor of economics and public policy at stony brook university. So professor, thanks so much for being with us. You're an economist. I'm not. So you tell me what I should look at in these numbers. Well, a big thing to look at, David, is the trend. I mean, it's not just December. We are building a nice trend with our what we are seeing is continued deceleration and inflation, inflation continues to step down. It's exactly what we want to see. This report, in fact, came in precisely in line with market expectations. I mean, the market just nailed it on headline and on core, the monthly numbers, and this was a very good report. I saw it in December. We actually had deflation. So headlines, CPI came down, a tenth of a percentage point. So we're seeing all of the positive signs that we wanted to see. It would have been nice if it had surprised to the upside, meaning that we had even more rapid deceleration than the market was anticipating. We didn't get that. But that's okay. This is good news, especially coming on the heels of last week's job report, which delivered more good news about the economy. So I don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth if that's what this is at the same time. Let's look at some of the constituent parts of it because as I understand it, for example, a lot of what held back the inflation numbers was used car prices and vehicle prices coming down. On the other hand, shelter costs continue to accelerate at a rate way above 2%. Is that correct? And if so should we be concerned about it? It's correct. And yet there's more good news if you don't look in the rearview mirror, but instead look through the meter, the windshield in front of us, I guess, to stick with the car analogy. So it is true that shelter costs remain elevated. So 8 tenths of a percent in the December report. But it is also the case that in real time, we know that rents are coming down very sharply. All across the country. And so we know that that gets fed into the inflation indices with a lag. And so I think that this year what the expectation is is that eventually those month over month rental prices coming down will start showing up in the CPI report. And then we're going to see a further whooshing down of inflation as shelter costs come in lower. Professor take all of this and put it in your economics machine there at stony brook and tell me what this says to the fed. What is the fed's likely reaction? What should it be to these numbers? Such important and quite different questions. So what should it be telling the fed? I think that there are neon signs. David, they're flashing their bright and they're everywhere. And they should be saying to the fed, you've done enough, right? There is not a strong case for further rate hikes, whether you look at wage inflation that continues to decelerate rents, which we just talked about, whether you're looking at core, excluding shelter, which was down 1% in December, unemployment sitting at a 50 year low while all of this is happening in the background and inflation coming down. You can look at consumer inflation expectations, break evens. I mean, the evidence supply chain indices easing, there are signs everywhere flashing to us that inflation is on the downward trajectory that peak inflation happened in June of last year. And that if we don't push things too far, we stand a very real chance of orchestrating what a lot of people thought was going to be virtually impossible. And that is that soft landing. One last one here. It's a big topic, and we should have more of the one discussion about it. But that is, the debt and deficit situation, which appears to be pushing at least some Republicans in the House to the brink of maybe a default, not raising the debt ceiling. Do we need a debt ceiling crisis in order to address the debt and the deficit? And should we be concerned about those issues? Well, we certainly don't need a crisis. This is pretty scary stuff. And I think that with each passing year, it starts to feel scarier and less like just, you know, the brinkmanship that we all sort of sit back and say, oh, here we go again. And we all know that in the final hour, Congress musters the votes to raise the debt ceiling. And we avoid, you know, a global catastrophe. What's scary is that I'm not so sure that we can sort of sit back and rest on things unfolding the way they have historically. This is a very different Congress. And it wouldn't take all that many members to really take us to the brink in a very serious way. So I certainly hope that doesn't happen. That was not my base case. I think that when push comes to shove, you know, people will do the right thing. And that's what I expect will happen this time, but at what cost. I mean, the deals that could be struck could exact a pretty heavy price on various programs. We saw in the past with the fiscal cliff and the sequester, these are across the board spending cuts that hit the economy very hard, held back the recovery for a period of years. So we'll have to wait and see. But I do think that in the end, we'll see the debt ceiling limit increase one way or another. For sure, it's always such a pleasure to have you with us in very helpful. That's Stephanie kelton, professor at stony brook university. Still
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg markets to close about an hour left here in the trading day on this Thursday afternoon Romain bostick alongside Tim stenbeck and Carol massar. We had a two day decline here that a lot of people questioning the Santa Claus rally on almost 2% rally here on the S&P on this Thursday afternoon giving a little bit of credence here to some of the dip buying behavior that has started to twinkle up in this market over the past few days. Broad based we've talked about it, right? But it's getting pretty quiet. It's been quite all week here, but nonetheless, nice to see a little bit of green certainly for those bulls out there. And you really, as we said, pick your name. It feels like investors are willing to take on some risk today. I was looking through just some of the sectors. I mean, you take a look at the IGB, which covers the software sector up about 3% here on the day. But then you go through some of the names. You talk about the big rebound in Tesla, which was up as much as 10% on the day. I think only up now. 6% here. Oh, it's still one of the worst performance on a year to date basis. And you have Netflix, which I had one of the worst first half that has had in a while, but in the second half of the year here, I think it's something like the third or fourth best performing stock in the S&P 500 up about 5% here on the day. And I think you brought this stock up a little bit earlier, was Cal main foods, big maker of eggs. If you buy eggs, you're probably buying it from them, even though it's not branded as Cal main. And I thought some of their commentary about feed costs and those input costs was quite telling. I even saw people tweeting about egg prices this morning on Twitter. But there could be some good news. Those prices could be coming down as a result of the avian flu outbreak, not being as apparent as it was a few months ago, but the feed price is still a big concern those inputs, the inflation story is here to stay. And this is going to be a big topic of debate as we head into 2023, even if you do have this certain degree of moderation as to what's going on. At some point, you get to that level where, well, not everything is necessarily moderating, right? Right, exactly. I don't know. Every time I feel like I pay for something, it's certainly feels pretty high. The other thing we should point out is we get ready to talk a little bit more about the U.S. economy is U.S. jobless claims that we got today, right? They rose slightly, but still near historic lows, which is to some maybe which is why we've got this rally underway that people are saying maybe maybe growth won't take such a hit when it comes to the U.S. economy. Could we see that soft landing? All right, let's talk a little bit more about the economy and economic conditions. We just had a wonderful guest in Stephanie kelton. And we said, who can we get on to actually top her? Peter atwater joining us right now. Adjunct Professor of economics over there. No pressure. It's also president of financial insights and consulting firm that advises institutional investors and really those titles. I don't do him justice. I mean, we talk about just sort of all the progress that's been made over the last few years and the study of behavioral economics and social psychology when it comes to the markets and Peter atwater's name comes up time and time again in that research and dialog, Peter. We talk about recessions. We talk about the economy. It's been said before that the economy really isn't a number. It is a feeling. And if a lot of people out there are looking at the egg prices in the store, looking at other things at the store, even if their wages are going up, even if everyone says, there will be no recession. If they feel like things are bad, things are going to be bad, right? Yeah, the economy just mirrors our mood. And it's a lagging indicator from my perspective. We act as we feel. And you really saw that earlier this year with gas prices. I mean, you talk about a super villain as far as sentiment. And the connection between gas prices and consumer confidence this year has been spectacular. I mean, you could really see the pain at the pump weighing on consumer sentiment. It's interesting, Peter, because when we've spoken about inflation over the last year, we oftentimes talk about how it hurts people at the bottom and lower ends of the income spectrum the most. They certainly feel it more because more of their disposable income. Does go to these discretionary costs or these non discretionary costs. But you argue in your commentary that in 2023, we could actually see a crumbling in luxury, a crumbling at the high end, and that people couldn't see it coming. What are you talking about here? Yeah, so when I look across the economy in terms of sentiment, what strikes me as a retrospective on 2022 is that those at the top seem to be immune from all of the pain that was being felt by those at the bottom. Food inflation, energy inflation. Those are the top just sort of shook it off. And what you've seen is this immense overbuilding and oversupply to cater to those at the top is if this golden era of wealth is going to go on forever. And that typically is a sign of trouble when you have this extrapolation of euphoria that seems to be everywhere, whether it's on billionaires row in Manhattan or across Miami in travel. It seems to be saturating the supply chain for those at the top
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"At least a narrow majority in the House of Representatives. They've made it clear that if they get a majority, they're going to do their best to make sure there's not any more fiscal spending. Is that okay at this point? Given what we've done already with the economy is and given inflation, is it okay if we don't keep adding fiscal stimulus? Well, I think we're going to add something, right? Because what Democrats did this time, which is different from what was done, let's say under the Obama presidency. When you got that one big physical package and then the midterms happened and you lost your majorities and then it really was gridlock and nothing really got done. This time, Democrats have baked in in advance of the midterms, some pretty big spending packages that have yet to roll themselves out so you'll remember the bipartisan infrastructure bill that passed in the winter of last year. You'll remember the chips and science act. That's another 57 billion or so. And then the so called inflation reduction act, which has hundreds of billions of dollars in additional spending, new spending on energy and climate related things. And so forth. So we've got infrastructure and climate spending and that's all in the pipeline ready to be rolled out. So I and I'm happy about that because I think that unlike back in 2009, 2010 when we did sort of shut off the spigot and then we ended up with a really anemic sluggish economic recovery maybe, maybe this front loading, you know, baking this stuff in in advance actually helps to support the recovery in the next couple of years. Okay, professor kelton, all we really helpful to have you with us. Thank you as Stephanie kelton. She's a Professor of economics at stony brook university. And next, we're going to go to The White House
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on TuneInPOC
"Balance sheet roll off is likely to take place this year. And the fed at least believes that that can affect the inflation question. But what about on the executive branch side with the administration, are there things that the Biden administration could do to dampen inflation? That's been a cause of concern. Not just for the fed, but also for a lot of consumers, regular people across the country. Well, you're going to get bored of my responses because I'm going to come back to the virus. If this is the number one thing that the administration and frankly, all of us, we all play a role in bringing down inflation because it's our behaviors with respect to the way that we respond to the virus. Are we getting vaccinated? Are we wearing masks when the viruses in a highly transmissible phase the way it is now? So we got to work together. We got to get the pandemic under control. There are things the administration can do on that front for sure. And I think, you know, everybody has sort of recognized that war could have been done and should have been done sooner. And I think the administration is taking steps there. And obviously they're looking at other sort of factors in terms of what's going on in meat packing. And is there some excessive profit taking or something like that happening in certain industries? They've taken steps to reduce gas prices by releasing oil from the strategic reserve. And so those sorts of things. I think, you know, the administration is trying to do what it can do, but at the end of the day, I think this is supply chain and it is related to the pandemic itself. One last one, a big one, but one last one, which is the build back better. What effect would that have an inflation and the economy if in fact it were enacted? Well, probably not a huge impact on the economy. And I think by just about every study that I've seen, whether it's come out of Goldman or moody's or Penn Wharton, I think the people who've analyzed build back better in terms of the potential inflationary impacts basically all of them reached the same conclusion, which is not much impact on inflation. Longer term medium term and longer term, there are definitely things in the build back better act that can help mitigate inflationary pressures, adding, making it easier for people to afford child care. Productivity enhancing investments in education and that sort of thing. So longer term, probably things that will improve or reduce inflationary pressure, short term, not much there. Doctor, thank you so much for joining us today. I really appreciate that Stephanie kelton. She's Professor of economics and public policy at stony brook university. British prime minister Boris Johnson right now is holding a news conference about COVID policy and he now says the UK will have a chance to ride out the omicron wave without going into lockdown. You can watch the prime minister on the Bloomberg at guai go. Meantime here coming up, former New York congressman Joe Crowley on the state of the state of New York under governor hochul. This is balance of power on Bloomberg television and radio. With three bright minds thinking of questions. How far apart are the two Americas right now? Someone's bound to ask the one you most want answered. What defines that as the year goes on? Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich. How do you explain the fact that you have not seen a cheer from equity traders? Bloomberg surveillance? Well, that occur within market stability. Weekday mornings had 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. Hey dad, your prescription will be ready in just a minute. Hey, dad, your laundry will be ready in just a minute. Dad? Your lunch will be ready in just a minute. Hey, honey. Why don't you take a minute? When you help care for a loved one, you give them as much time as you can, but it's just as important to take time for yourself. AARP can help. Find free care guides to support you and your loved one at AARP dot org slash caregiving. That's AARP dot org slash caregiving. Brought to you by AARP in the Ed council. Markets, headlines, and breaking news 24 hours a day. At Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg business app and at Bloomberg quick tape. This is a Bloomberg business flash. A route in tech shares is dragging U.S. stocks from all time highs on concerns that higher interest rates will devalue profits. Treasuries are down and the yen is also down to the lowest since 2017. The S&P 500 is little change now down just about two the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7 tenths of a percent of 258 and the NASDAQ is down 1.6% down 255. The ten years down 1430 seconds, the yield is 1.67%. West Texas intermediate crude oil is up one and a half percent at 77 19 a barrel comics golds up three quarters of 1% at 1813 70. The dollar yen one 1615 the Euro dollar 1291. That's a Bloomberg business flash now more balance of power with David Westin on Bloomberg
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on TuneInPOC
"From Bloomberg world headquarters in New York to our television and radio audiences worldwide. Welcome to balance of power. We're going to start today once again with a check on the markets and where they are today. Joining us is Abigail Doolittle. So Abigail, what are we seeing today that's different? Very interesting action, in fact, I divergence between the growth and cyclical trade today in favor of value or the cyclical trade and not tech. We have the S&P 500 at this point actually down earlier putting in an all time high. The Dow is leading. It is up at this point about 7 tenths of 1%. On the other hand, the tech heavy index is, they are down, down, down, more than 1%. This has everything to do with rising yields. Over the last two days, the ten year yield backing up about 15 basis points may be a delayed reaction to the fed's message in December as folks seem to be a little bit less worried about omicron. So here we are putting 2% back in play. I know you have a thing you were talking about 2% and I'd give you a tough time and I'm not making it 2%. 1.7 if we get there, it's closer to 2%, no question about it. But at the same time, what's the volume like? Because obviously through the holidays, it was very thin. Yeah, it's really interesting. It is 50% above the 20 day moving average. So if you factor in last week that, of course, would take down the average, but even so, it is way, way above. So the little bit of selling that we're seeing today means that those investors are fairly serious, especially in terms of selling tech and apple is still down. It's down 1.2%. So not making that $3 trillion market again, at least today. I'm worried about Apple being under $3 trillion. Thank you so much to have go do a little for that report on the markets. As we enter 2022, rebounding economy is facing a good deal uncertainty over jobs or inflation of the fed pace of fed tapering. Take us through it all. We welcome now, Stephanie kelton. Professor of economics, the state university of New York at stony brook. Doctor kelton earlier serves as the chief economist to the Senate budget committee. So doctor kelton, thank you so much for being with us. As you look at the possible risks out into 2022, what's got your attention the most? Well, you look, you're looking for the headwinds, right? I mean, in terms of the economic outlook, it is always a foot race between the tailwinds that you hope are strong enough to propel you forward and keep you keep the economy expanding, allow us to continue to add jobs at the sort of pace that we've been adding over the last number of months now. It's been very strong, but the risks are obviously, you know, what you're coming up against in terms of headwinds. And David, for me, the big headwind has been from the very beginning of this. The virus itself. And as we got vaccines, and as we got more of the population vaccinated and we began the reopening, we started to see just how resilient the economy had been through this. And then, of course, we get hit with Delta. And then here comes omicron. So, you know, if we are lucky and what we're hearing from a lot of the experts turns out to be correct, that omicron is more transmissible, but less difficult to deal with in terms of the health impacts and so forth. And we're going to see maybe after the next three weeks or so will be, this will be kind of rearview mirror in terms of omicron. So if there's not another mutation and another variant that we have to deal with, and I think the outlook looks pretty good to me. The big headwind is the virus. Yeah, from your mouth to God's ears, basically vaccine really taking care of problems for us. We're getting past the omicron. At the same time, as you look back at what we saw last year, is the virus hitting the supply side of the equation of the demand side more because I think one thing that surprised some people was how much it hit the supply side, which really drove inflation. Oh, I think that's absolutely correct. I mean, there are both things are at play here, right? It is the case that we had extremely robust fiscal support this time, unlike after the financial crisis and the fiscal fiscal response from Congress after the 2008 economic downturn, this time was much different. We had much more robust fiscal support. People had more money. They had more income to spend coming out of, you know, the sort of reopening part of all of this. And so there were demand impulses there at play that helped to allow consumers to go racing back in. And it's really been a question of what people are trying to spend money on. You know, it isn't the case. I don't believe that what we have is just a generalized case of too much money chasing too much, too few of everything else, right? Goods and services. People have been trying to buy a lot of goods. And we still have been reluctant to go back into restaurants and on airplanes and hotels and the vacations. And all the other things. So, you know, the supply side has revealed a lot of vulnerabilities. And we've seen it at the ports and we've seen it with freight and trucking and all the rest of it. And so the supply side, I think, overwhelms the demand side, contributors to the inflationary pressure that we're currently dealing with. And of course, it's not just goods and services that there's a lot of demand for it, not a lot of supply. And there's also workers. We've had some difficulty with that. What do you make of the job picture right now looking forward to those jobs numbers on Friday? And the increasing wages we're seeing across the country. Yeah, so, you know, we got some numbers out today with the jolts report. Now this is a look back, right? These are November numbers. So this is really pre omicron, but these numbers look really good. I mean, this is a labor market that continues to, I think, display a great deal of strength, you continue to see high levels of quits. That's true about four and a half million workers quit jobs in November. But we added 6.7 million hires. And so while quits are really near historic highs, it's also the case that on balance, we are adding tons and tons of jobs in this recovery. And so that's a really good news. Most of the people who are quitting are quitting because they're taking more different jobs, right? They're not quitting and leaving the labor force. In fact, the labor force is continuing to grow. The labor force is growing by 1.8 million over the last 9 months. So we're adding back jobs. We've got a lot of strength in the labor market. Yes, some workers are enjoying by virtue of having a little bit of additional bargaining power. The ability to leave a job, they didn't like move into a better job, a better paying job and to the extent that this labor market is allowing people to enjoy that sort of increase in wages, along with an improving economy. I think that's a good thing. What does this all say to the fed is we enter this new year, the feds indicated they're going to they are in the process of tapering their bond buying purchases we don't know yet about the rate hikes. What do you anticipate in 2022? Well, look, I think we know that the fed would really like to be able to raise rates. Probably would like to be able to get in three hikes. This year, whether that turns out to be possible or not, I think, again, we got to come back to the virus. I think ultimately the virus is going to drive where the fed goes with rates because the virus is going to drive where we go with the economy. So yes, the fed has moved up the pace of the tapering of the bond buying and there is some talk among some at the fed that if they begin to allow the bonds to roll off, they've got a portfolio that's close to 9 trillion. So if they do some sort of measured rolling off of bonds, some at the fed have made the argument that this could be done in lieu of more aggressive rate hikes, which they believe would possibly help to address inflationary pressures. So if the virus allows it, I think some combination of rate hikes and or.
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Take as well, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than a 120 countries. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. Thank you so much, Joe. Well, we're hearing a fair amount from members of the Federal Reserve this week about what they think about interest rates and they seem to be pointing maybe towards 75 basis point rate hike later this month. The same time we actually heard from the European Central Bank this week, they did the 75 basis point. The first time they had ever done that. To take us through the economies and the central banks on both sides of the Atlantic, welcome now, Stephanie kelton. She's Professor of economics and public policy at stony brook university. So professor Kellen, thank you so much for being back with us. Let's start with Europe if we would. I think maybe a toss up between 50 and 75. They went with 75, they indicated more is to come. What are they facing over there? What are they trying to deal with? Well, they're trying to deal with inflation, the way countries all over the world are. And what they're facing though really is just a very acute crisis. And they know it. And it's largely an energy crisis. And so while on the one hand, you have the ECB and Christine Lagarde explaining, you know, we're going to be very aggressive. We've done this unprecedented 75 basis point hike. At the same time, she's pretty candid about saying that this is not likely to do much in terms of getting at the core driver of our inflation problem, which is energy costs. So they're using the blunt instrument, which is the only real tool that they think they have. And they're doing it while recognizing that it is likely not going to provide the kind of relief that everybody wants to see. Well, that's my curiosity, actually, because it's not clear to me how raising rates will take down the energy rates as long as president Putin is doing what he's doing. At the same time, they started copying a rock and a hard place. They have to do something. They feel they have to do something. So, you know, it's this tendency to just really rely so heavily on central banks. I mean, after all, central banks have the mandate. It is the Central Bank, both here in the U.S. with the fed and in Europe with the ECB that is supposed to be in a sense in charge of fighting inflation. So if inflation is a problem, we look first to the Central Bank to deal with the problem. And the reality is that everyone from Jerome Powell, the Christine Lagarde and other central bankers have told us pretty candidly from the beginning that when you are facing inflationary pressures that arise from the supply side of the economy due to the pandemic, oil price shocks and the light, that their toolkit is not well designed to deal with those sorts of problems. And I think if you read between the lines, what they're basically saying is we could use some help on other fronts, right? There's another policy lever. There are other things that we could be doing to try to tamp down inflationary pressures. One of the big stories right now, obviously, is currency. And what has happened in the U.S. dollar hitting new records actor record against just about every other currency. In part, perhaps you go to the energy situation, maybe also because of some divergence on monetary policy. What do you make of the U.S. dollar and what it is doing right now? Is it going to keep going? It looks like it will. I mean, I don't see reasons to believe that the dollar is on the verge of softening against other major currencies. In fact, I think the strength will probably continue afoot. I think the Euro will continue to weaken the bank of Japan seems not terribly bothered with the strengthening of the dollar Vis-à-vis the yen. So I think the dollar can rip higher. I think the obvious problem, really, is for the rest of the world, especially emerging markets, many poor countries heavily indebted in U.S. dollars. This has the potential to lead to debt crises in other parts of the world, sub Saharan Africa, we've already seen what's happened in Sri Lanka, but countries like Argentina and even Ukraine are vulnerable to these to the increased strength of the U.S. dollar. Stephanie, what do you think the fed thinks about where the dollar is? We had Bill Dudley, the former president of the New York fed on earlier on Bloomberg, and this is what he had to say. He thinks maybe the fed wants this. The fed actually wants the dollar to be relatively firm because a stronger dollar restrains economic activity. And it reduces inflation because it reduces the cost of import imports into the United States. So the fed is not unhappy with the dollar strength. This is just part and parcel. One aspect of how you tighten financial conditions. Professor, do you agree with the bill Dudley? Do you think the fed wants that strong a dollar? I do. I do. I don't think it does a lot of heavy lifting in terms of reducing inflationary pressure, but no question that it helps. I mean, the reality, David is that when I look at the way things have unfolded, let's say for the first half of the year. And what I think lies ahead, what I see is inflation stepping down and signs that to me suggest that we're going to continue to see inflation coming down in the second half of the year. You can say that a strong dollar helps with that. It surely does. You could also argue that a recession helps with that. I prefer not to see that happen. I think if you look at delivery times, they're normalizing. You look at the number of unfilled orders normalizing. You look at transportation costs and rail and frayed containers and air all coming down nicely. Those costs are coming down sharply. The New York fed supply chain pressures index is normalizing. You got companies with few exceptions, but you've got a lot of companies announcing either hiring freezes or layoffs. Many people describe the housing market as already in recession and the strong dollar adds to that. You've got a lot of fiscal drag. You've got Janet Yellen telling us we have substantial fiscal drag in place. So you combine all of those things. And I actually think that we have had enough tightening. It's enough. But the fed doesn't agree. The fed wants to see credible evidence of inflation continuing to come down month after month for some period of time. And until they see that, they're going to continue hiking. And we'll have to deal with the fallout. That's certainly seems to be where they're headed. Thank you so much, professor, always really helpful to have you on that Stephanie kelton. She's stony brook university Professor of economics and public policy. Coming up, we're going to be joined by Jane harman, president emerita of
Bernie Sanders's Economic Advisor Wants to Keep Printing Money
"Is no shock that The New Yorker ran a piece, August 2019, titled The Economist who believes the government should just print more money. Stephanie kelton, a senior economic adviser to Bernie Sanders and Professor of economics and public policy at stony brook university, is popular in a way that economists almost definitionally are not. Filmmakers trail her with cameras. She goes on international speaking tours. And once it sold out a basketball arena in Italy, kelton is the foremost evangelist of a fringe economic movement called modern monetary theory, which argues in part that the government should pay for programs requiring big spending like the Green New Deal simply by printing more money. This is a polarizing idea. This spring at kelton spoke at The Wall Street Journal's future of everything festival on the day as a journal staffer introduced kelton as an economist with an idea that will either solve the world's problems or send it into ruin. She made a face and then walked on stage. So what exactly does she say? Well, adherents of MMT imagine a world built on MMT principles in which the government provides guaranteed jobs, healthcare affordable college, launches clean infrastructure projects to replace crumbling highways airports and bridges. Kelton, who does at least 5 interviews per week, plus lectures speaking gigs in conferences, is more than anyone else responsible for building MMT's digital army. So what exactly is MMT? Well, it means that we just spend money, and don't worry about it.
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on TED Talks Daily
"Support life. In life in soil is mostly microbial. The Dutch scientist antoni van leeuwenhoek saw a tiny organisms he called the wee beasties under his microscope, about 350 years ago. And with the rapid innovation of molecular and computational tools, we are finally getting a sneak peek at who they are and how they make their way in the world. Here's the thing, a teaspoon of soil holds billions of organisms, things like bacteria, fungi, protists, and archaea. These microbes are the movers and shakers of nature's carbon cycle. They drive really important processes in soil, they take organic matter and convert it into complex carbon molecules. And having more carbon and soil is transformative. As carbon accumulates, agricultural fields can hold on to more water and more nutrients. Building resilience that helps them deal with the ups and downs of a changing climate. That resilience means plants can grow more consistently, even when the weather is fickle. And the awesome thing is, carbon rich soils help buffer us against what is an uncertain climate future. The trick is to really rethink how we do agriculture. So there's the good news, which is there are some tried and true ways that we can get more carbon in our soils and build our soils back. We can plow less and we can make sure that we have roots in the ground year round. Feeding the microbes and powering that microbial engine humming under our feet. And we can do this. The other thing is, diversity is the key ingredient in this recipe. Diverse plant communities support diverse microbial communities that can transform and store more carbon. Diversity is good for soils, and is good for climate mitigation. Just like we need every microbe, we need every farmer and rancher, every climate solution. And every solver. So, healthy carbon rich soils matter today, more than ever. The other great thing about carbon rich soils is they help farmers have a more consistent agricultural operations and more sustainable ones that can withstand the ups and downs of a changing climate. That's a huge win for the people that grow our food. It's a win for climate and it's a win for us consumers. So how do we do it? Well, there are three simple things we can do. Number one, we have to protect our soils and the carbon they already hold. Number two, we can get more carbon underground by growing diverse, climate adapted, crops. And number three, we can let the microbes do their thing. Leave them alone by leaving the soil undisturbed. It sounds simple and that's because it kind of is. But there are some questions that are left to be answered. And there's a lot of room for us to innovate. We need to track and measure our climate progress. We need to develop more climate resilient crop varieties that can grow deeper roots and pump carbon underground deeper. And we need to rethink our economic models in agriculture and help support and incentivize these carbon sequestering agricultural practices. So lots of room for innovation, lots of room for research, good news for us scientists. But we don't have time to waste, climate change is here, and it's affecting all of us, whether we know it or not. It's affecting every single ecosystem, including agriculture. Soils that are literal foundation of life on this planet. The reason that we can eat and a climate solution just waiting to be unlocked. So let's build back our soils, help our planet by looking down to the ground. Thank you. I'm Stephanie kelton, an economist and a co host of the market watch podcast the best new ideas and money. Money is an idea, which has made it up, and since we made it up, we can change it. We can upgrade its operating system to make it fairer, faster, and more efficient. Each week, we explore one idea with the potential to rethink the way we live, work, spend, save, and invest. Subscribe to the best new ideas in money wherever you listen to podcasts. PRX..
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on TED Talks Daily
"You're listening to ted-talks daily, I'm Elise Hugh. Our lives depend on curbing climate change, but so many imperatives seem to be in competition. What is the most urgent thing we can do right now? Strategist and social entrepreneur James melange makes the case for what he thinks is the answer. In his talk from Ted countdown, New York session, 2022. Hey, ted-talks daily listeners. I'm Adam grant. I host another podcast from the Ted audio collected. It's called work life, and it's about the science making work, not suck. Next time you want to ask, what do people care about here? What do people get really rewarded for or if they violate these norms or behaviors? What do they get really punished for? How to recognize the company's culture from the outside and strengthen it from the inside. Find work life on Apple podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. Support comes from Penn fed credit union, offering great rates on financial products for those who are in the military and those who are not. Discover loans and credit cards for budget flexibility, checking accounts to manage day to today expenses without any hassle, and savings accounts to plan for the future. It's easy to join, more at Penn fed, dot org, to receive any advertised product you must become a member of Penn fed, federally insured by NC UA. I'm Stephanie kelton, an economist and a co host of the MarketWatch podcast the best new ideas and money. Money is an idea, we just made it up, and since we made it up, we can change it. We can upgrade its operating system to make it fairer, faster, and more efficient. Each week, we explore one idea with the potential to rethink the way we live, work, spend, save, and invest. Subscribe to the best new ideas and money wherever you listen to podcasts. Welcome to the Gates of hell. Yeah. Depending on your frame of mind, that is either an bizarrely morbid or entirely appropriate way to start a talk about climate action in the year 2022. Health, gate national park. In the town of naivasha, in the great river valley, in my home country, Kenya. Now, its name may not scream tourist trap, but believe me it is a beautiful part of the world and you should all try and visit sometime. For more importantly, it could play it has the potential to play a crucial role in the fight against global climate catastrophe. The IPCC, the most recent IPCC reports are clear. Humanity has left cutting emissions too late. Any realistic path to avoiding unacceptable levels of warming now requires us to not only drastically cut emissions at least having them by 2030, but also undertake an equally massive effort to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere at an accelerating rate. Now, let's be clear, greenhouse gas removal is not and can not be an excuse for continuing to emit just as installing seat belts and airbags is not an excuse for deliberately ramming your car into a wall. Indeed, current estimates suggest that even with drastic emissions reductions, the world will need to be removing between 5 and 16 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every single year by 2050. Now to give you a sense of the scale of that, the low end of that range, 5 billion tons, that's bigger than the size of the global petroleum industry in 2020. So let's not kid ourselves that carbon removal at anywhere close to the scale that we will need in order to survive is some sort of easy way out. It is going to be damn difficult to do. So how do we do it? Well, the first and most familiar measures will be interventions such as reforestation and landscape restoration. Essentially giving mother nature the time and space to heal herself. In addition, we can increase the amount of carbon held in our soils to the widespread application of biochar and enhanced weathering of chemically suitable rocks. We estimate that in Africa alone, something like a 100 million to 680 million additional tons of carbon dioxide could be drawn from the atmosphere using these types of methods. However, they do require a lot of land, a lot of water and a lot of other natural resources that may limit the extent to which we can scale them. Moreover, they are subject to some of the feedback loops from the climate change that we are already experiencing, such as more frequent and intense wildfires. And all of that means we are going to need to supplement them with technologies that accelerate and amplify natural processes to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Enter the members of my new favorite boy band. Dak, becks, and bikers. These are a set of engineered approaches that use physical chemical and biological processes to gather and concentrate carbon dioxide from the atmosphere before safely sequestering it. Usually underground. As more people run the climate math, you're seeing growing levels of interest and investment in these technologies. With billions of dollars already being committed to early pilots and installations in various parts of the world, particularly in Europe and North America. But the reality is they have a very long way to go. To date, engineered removals around the world have accounted for something like a 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide removed. Total. To get to the multi-billion billion ton scale, we're going to need by 2050 is going to take a truly epic process of exponential scaling. Probably means we need to get to something. If we want to have a realistic shot at it, we need to get to something like a 100 million tons per year by 2030. For those of you running the calculators, that's a thousandfold increase in less than a decade. And guess what? We will have to continue that insane rate of growth for another two decades after that. And here's the really bad news. Anything close to that level of scaling of this industry in the places where it's currently being piloted presents some really difficult climate action tradeoffs. For that, let me take the example of dak.
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"More like the weekend or these halfway to the weekend around here What's the picture like canary wharf We are in our all time highs post pandemic And so we've been slowly building every week on week since January it's been increasing And last week it doesn't make the week but when the Elizabeth line opened we saw our traffic go up by 25% that week So we'll see kind of how it settles out over the next several months But I think we feel robust and if you come on the weekends it is packed Yeah and that also perhaps is something slightly different to the City of London If you are if you have shifted then to the mixed use model that means you are surely more focused on the local consumer on the concerns around a second half recession in the UK or at least a second half slowdown and we were talking about poverty prices earlier They've shot up but there is an issue about whether they come down again with interest rates going up tell us your view on the consumer in the capital now Sure I think the consumer is getting affected as well as I think businesses I think though one thing that has come from in terms of the UK economy has been three kind of once in a generation events whether you first had Brexit then you had COVID Now you've got the war and I think in general the consumers the jobs that are needed out here you talk to our businesses in terms of retail in terms of hospitality in terms of construction There's not enough workers out there And so people are going to be prices are going up Wages are going up to attract those people Just a specific question then on kind of quarterly income that comes in from rentals to businesses on the estate How much of that money are you making kind of quarter on quarter Because that's obviously seen as quite a benchmark for rental space Is that consistent in terms of the income that you're coming that you're seeing come in Yeah so we've got three different revenue segments right We've got the office segment We've got the retail segment We've got the residential segment The office sector we've been at 99% collections right So we've had no issues there On the retail yeah I suffered like everyone else during the pandemic but now our collections are back up I don't think we're going to be giving concessions in 2022 so that market is now recovered healthy And the residential we started in 2021 and that has been robust We've had 99% collections there and rents are increasing just given the demand supply and balance in London right now Okay that was the CEO of the canary wharf groupy Khan speaking to you in parts and Carlin Hepburn earlier this week about the shifting trends in the London commercial and residential property markets across the opening of the Elizabeth line has shifted the map somewhat for those companies as well So interesting to get his insight on that and interview on Bloomberg radio When investors remain on edge as some fear the pace of U.S. monetary tightening could throw the world's largest economy into recession Today's may jobs report is likely to show the smallest gain in jobs since April 2021 that alongside a Dan shift in average hourly earnings growth That's according to a forecast by Bloomberg economics Add to that fears over inflation we've been asking some of the biggest names in finance for their views on the economic conditions starting with Larry Fink from BlackRock Inflation is not transitory It is probably with us for a number of years And at the type of inflation that I don't believe the Federal Reserve has to policy or the tools to do much with it right now It's a hurricane Right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine Everyone thinks the fed can handle this That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way We just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm sandy When there's euphoria when there's optimism when there's greed when there's risk tolerance and so forth that's a very difficult climate for the value investor to find bargains We've obviously been through lots of cycles But the confluence of the number of shocks to the system to me is unprecedented That needs to loosen that up or wage pressures will accumulate and that will keep inflation above the fed's 2% inflation objective Increasing taxes depending upon on whom they fall Is of course a very durable way to reduce spending and potentially bring down inflation Some key voices there talking to us about their view of the economic conditions in the U.S. Stephanie kelton was the last first voice you heard there from Sony Brooke university also in there Bill Dudley the former New York fed president John waldron from Goldman Sachs a harid mark from oaktree capital Jamie Dimon of course from JPMorgan Chase and Larry Fink to in there as well Stay with us on Bloomberg daybreak Europe coming up will be getting more insights into the oil market moves after that OPEC plus meetings are production increase but not enough to impress the markets Brent crude trading at a $117 and 9 cents to end four tenths of 1% This is Bloomberg.
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Might be the largest shareholder but it's just one voice in those institutions as well So a lot of balance but essentially Ellen certainly in her speech and then on this TB appearance talking at least a strategy for some of the things she wants to achieve there So a professor called on the same subject does the basic set of agreements and principles and institutions coming out of Britain was does it still work Well I think it can work I think we've seen it work pretty well through the pandemic response right So yeah I think there's always room for improvement you know many decades have passed since bretton Woods was put in place and we've changed entirely The monetary system that came out of bretton Woods We had a fixed exchange rate system where the U.S. dollar was tied to gold And so we've made some significant changes but I think that looking at ways in particular the kinds of things that the secretary talked about with respect to helping developing nations find better ways to make the kinds of strategic investments that are going to be needed to deal with future pandemics climate change and the rest of it I think we can build upon what we have But what we have works reasonably reasonably well Okay thank you so very much I really appreciate that professor Stephanie kelton of stony brook university and Simon Kennedy our executive editor for economics here at Bloomberg Coming up House minority leader Kevin McCarthy in the hot seat We talk with former head of the House democratic caucus Joe Crowley This is balance of power on Bloomberg television and on radio Carol massar This stock has shot up big time Jim's den of X So take us into the economic impact of this Along with reporters and editors who help make your business week profitable Let's dig into it with Bloomberg business week editor Joe Weber It's the cover story of the upcoming issue Bloomberg business week Weekday afternoons at two eastern These are retailers that have been on everybody's radar.
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on What Bitcoin Did
"Stronger Fiat currencies. I mean, that's why I think the U.S. government should the long-term impact it might have on our inability to fight these unethical words as sort of a secondary consideration for me. I think that the U.S. government should adopt Bitcoin now because it'll advantage Americans in the future. And it will make our country stronger and will make our currency stronger, at least in the near future. Eventually, I don't think we have the currencies. But I think there's a long transitionary period here where you have dollars or Euros or whatever they are and that we kind of enter into this exchange system where they're pegged in some way. And if you care about your country, you're not going to want your country to be late in that. Because then you're going to have a pretty weak Fiat currency. So I think that's the way I'm thinking about it, although who knows. It's Brave New World out there. The crazy part is we get to watch it all happen, which is something that people in history books in the future, if we still have them, we'll say, man, it must have been crazy to be around then. There'll be some of you that Alex threat students. No, we're talking about have you read his trilogy of books. Yeah, well, look, look, I think exploring this idea of the price of war has been so illuminating for me because I just didn't know about it. I just didn't I didn't know about the history of how we fought wars in the past and how it's actually tied to democracy and I think it's a fascinating topic that people should become educated about. And then maybe you start thinking differently about government intervention in the bond markets and I'd like to see more dialog about it basically. Like I'd like to see more and more discussed and not less discussed. In finance and economics more broadly, I mean, there's a big book called stigmas money markets. That's kind of used as like the Bible for anyone trading in the money markets today. And it doesn't mention war at all, not a single time. I'd like to see you debate Stephanie kelton, but with our unaware that this is actually really interested in because she worked for Bernie, who was against wars. So how does she square this? How does she write a book that doesn't mention Iraq or Afghanistan at all? And at the end of the book, basically says she's proud of the worst we fought by through debt. Maybe because she's a little shit. Maybe, but I actually would like to see her defend that point. So would I? That's why I think it would be an interesting debate. The discussion around M and T and his implications and then you can just slip this one in and ask it to defend this. Yeah, and the people say, no, no, no, MMT is just a framework for thinking about domestic financing. It's like, no, no, no, but what about if your country's largest single domestic financing expenditures wars abroad? Like you can't separate the two. So let's just talk more about it. We have entered into a dark age that was predicted by tocqueville by Adam Smith, Adam Smith said, I have a quote here from him that I thought was powerful. He says, the people feeling during the continuance of the war, the complete burden of it would soon grow weary of it in the government in order to humor them would not be under the necessity of carrying it on longer than it was necessary to do so..
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on WSJ What's News
"Labor Department says new unemployment claims jumped at the start of the year rising by 55,000 last week to 286,000. The highest level since October. Economists expect the numbers to fluctuate in the coming weeks with the recent surge in COVID-19 cases disrupting businesses. But few expect that to change the fundamentals of the labor market where demand for workers remains high. New data shows U.S. home sales surged to a 15 year high in 2021 fueled by low interest rates and remote work. The national association of realtors said there were more than 6.1 million sales of existing homes last year, up 8 and a half percent from a year earlier, but housing economists expect the frenzy to subside in 2022. Mortgage rates have risen to almost 3.6% in recent weeks. The highest level since March of 2020. U.S. stocks ended another day down on concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy. The NASDAQ dropped 1.3% a day after falling into correction territory. The Dow lost more than 300 points or .9% and the S&P 500 fell 1.1%. After the bell Netflix said it added 8.3 million subscribers to its platform in the latest quarter, boosted by hits including don't look up and Cobra Kai. That was slightly lower than its own projections. Revenue rose 16% to more than $7.7 billion. Netflix shares fell more than 19% in early after hours trading. A bipartisan antitrust bill that would prohibit the largest tech platforms from favoring their own products and services over competing ones has cleared a Senate panel and will now move to the full floor. Supporters, including smaller companies, say the bill would benefit consumers by increasing competition on dominant platforms. Amazon, Google parent Alphabet, Apple and Facebook parent meta have been fighting the bill, saying it could disrupt popular services for businesses and consumers. And the U.S. is allowing three Baltic NATO members Estonia Lithuania and Latvia to send American made anti tank and air defense weapons to Ukraine. That's according to U.S. officials who also say the Biden administration intends to provide 5 transport helicopters. The decisions come as fears mount that Russian forces could attack Ukraine. Russia has moved an estimated 100,000 troops to its border with Ukraine. It's also moved forces to neighboring Belarus. The U.S. and its allies remain far apart from Russia on deescalating the situation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to meet with Russia's foreign minister on Friday. Coming up after a broad elections bill failed in the Senate, where do efforts go from here? Hi, I'm Stephanie kelton, an economist and co host of the new market watch podcast the best new ideas in money. Money is an idea..
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on WSJ What's News
"Staff, although signs suggest that omicron largely causes milder illnesses, experts attribute the high number of hospitalizations to the new variants, high transmissibility. The surge is hitting nursing homes especially hard. New federal data shows the highest number of cases ever documented among staffers. 57,000 in the most recent week, and a near record number of residents testing positive. Nursing homes were also among the hardest hit during previous COVID-19 surges. In China, new lockdowns and widespread testing aimed at reining in omicron or hitting major manufacturers and raising fears about the ripple effects on global supply chains. Factories are closing in ports or getting crowded. Chip maker Samsung automaker Volkswagen and textile companies are among the businesses suffering production hitches. Although the response is largely in keeping with the playbook, China has followed to contain the virus, economists are warning that omron's transmissibility and China's increasingly significant role in supply chains could mean an even greater impact than in the past. U.S. district judge Liam o'grady has removed himself from a nearly two year long case involving Amazon, signing a financial conflict of interest. Last year, The Wall Street Journal had reported about his wife stock holdings in Amazon. O'grady had ruled in the company's favor during the 20 months he oversaw the case, in which the online retailer accused two former employees of violating Amazon's conflict of interest policies. After the journal contacted o'grady, his wife's investment adviser sold the Amazon shares valued at more than $20,000. A new judge has been assigned to the case. O'grady was one of a 136 judges for whom our investigations team identified stock conflicts. They found more than 950 cases with recusal violations since 2010. Reporter Joe palazzolo said o'grady's case highlights the fallout of financial conflicts of interest in our judicial system. You know, we've been for the past year looking at judges who hear cases involving parties in which they or their families own stock. And this case really shows the impact of them violating these rules because when they violate the rules and they're called out on it, in most cases, they're going to have to step aside. And when they step aside, it's going to impact the administration of justice. It's going to delay proceedings. It's going to cost people money. It's going to cost the court resources. And so that's what this story really tried to show. Coming up, lawmakers questioned fed chair Powell on inflation and the job market. Hi, I'm Stephanie kelton, an economist and co host of the new market watch podcast, the best new ideas in money. Money is an idea..
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Which one of us Bloomberg surveillance Must watch I think they made a great decision step permission We did mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television As we kick off 2022 we've got the rebound in the U.S. economy still facing a good deal of uncertainty Bloomberg David Weston talked with Stephanie kelton prof of economics at the state university of New York Stony brook she also formally served as a chief economist at the Senate budget committee In terms of the economic outlook it is always a foot race between the tailwinds that you hope are strong enough to propel you forward and keep you keep the economy expanding Allow us to continue to add jobs at the sort of pace that we've been adding over the last number of months now It's been very strong But the risks are obviously you know what you're coming up against in terms of headwinds And David for me the big headwind has been from the very beginning of this The virus itself And as we got vaccines and as we got more of the population vaccinated and we began the reopening we started to see just how resilient the economy had been through this And then of course we get hit with Delta And then here comes on the cons So you know if we are lucky and what we're hearing from a lot of the experts turns out to be correct that all Macron is more transmissible but less difficult to deal with in terms of the health impacts and so forth And we're going to see maybe after the next three weeks or so will be This will be kind of rearview mirror in terms of on Macron So if there's not another mutation and another variant that we have to deal with And I think the outlook looks pretty good to me The big headwind is the virus From your mouth to God's ears basically the vaccine really taking care of the problems for us we're getting past the overcrowd At the same time as you look back at what we saw last year is the virus hitting the supply side of the equation of the demand side more because I think one thing that surprised some people was how much it hit the supply side which really drove inflation Oh I think that's absolutely correct I mean there are both things are at play here right It is the case that we had extremely robust fiscal support this time unlike after the financial crisis and the fiscal fiscal response from Congress after the 2008 economic downturn this time was much different We had much more robust fiscal support People had more money They had more income to spend coming out of the sort of reopening part of all of this And so there were demand impulses there at play that helped to allow consumers to go racing back in And it's really been a question of what people are trying to spend money on It isn't the case I don't believe that what we have is just a generalized case of too much money chasing too much too few of everything else right Goods and services That was Stephanie kelton prof of economics of the state university of New York In stony brook Now do you have a stomach for volatility Do you believe that you'd like a little bit of Bitcoin to help you at whether the inflation storm ten days that didn't change the narrative but we drifted downwards by over 6% Where do we go from here Well Bitcoin could make it to a $100,000 Why Because as Goldman Sachs say it's all about the.
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Come down to the close Bloomberg's comprehensive cross platform coverage ahead of the U.S. market close guards right now This is the countdown to the close with 60 minutes left in the training session Caroline hybrid main bostick Taylor rigs join now by our colleagues Carol Massa and Tim stern of it Together welcome all full blue mega audiences We go cross platform TV radio YouTube you name it And we look at what falling from records kind of a day big tech small tech in focus as we see those yields continue to climb Yeah exactly It really is a treasury bond market story and I feel like the treasury trade is already saying we're done with 2022 I mean it's pretty dramatic and I feel like I don't know whether Taylor talking at one point or other folks on Bloomberg TV but just should we start to be thinking about a 2% on that ten year note at some point Yeah and look at how this is playing out in the NASDAQ 100 Of course the big tech companies Tesla down 4% Microsoft Nvidia Amazon Apple all leading to the decline of 1.6 I mean volumes up some 23% on the NASDAQ but the overall movement down by one and a half percent I'm looking at 247 points being lost when you're looking at the NASDAQ overall You mentioned those big cap tech names dragging at lower We also see therefore the S&P 500 can not fight higher when you do have these big tech names Under so much selling pressure only down why some four points 3.7 points were at 4792 as we trade So basically flat on the day But we are still seeing money moving to some of the cyclicals Dow Jones but gets lift higher 255 points higher 7 10% higher but the rest of 2000 also some selling going on to day Taylor And it's a cyclical It's a value story I know two days does not a trend make but the story of the year is the story of today as well with energy financials the big outperformers at least on a sector basis on an intraday level energy just continuing to post big gains of about 3.7% financials of course benefiting from that steeper yield curve industrials materials you name it some of the other big performers but Romain you go to the bottom and unfortunately it is technology that is the worst performer down about 1.4% And that really is where some of these big tech companies are coming back into focus as those long duration assets Yeah and I think we got to put this in perspective I mean we're going to talk about obviously the big cap tech names Yeah apple is sliding a little bit here and you have some other companies out there in that space like Microsoft and Tesla as well gear But when you get down to that second tier of companies out there that's really become the issue here You're going to pay what 300 times earnings for a company And it's not just earnings It's a price to sales You want to pay 50 times sales for one of these companies Well I guess maybe when rates were at rock bottom but if you really do believe that rates are going to start to move higher on the long end and on the short end you have to start reevaluating that And it's not just about where the nominal rate ends up guys It's also about what is baked in to that rise in rates The idea here that you're getting a slower economic environment the idea that you're getting a more inflationary economic environment and it turns a lot of those multiples on its head Yeah that is why you see a Robin Hood off by 6% Why you see a beyond meat off by 5.5% Why you of course factory in that all important yield curve is you say steepening Can I check it out The two's the tens Currently really it's a dramatic spike higher that we've seen in the last couple of days remaining going to jump in Yeah I was just going to give Tim a pop quiz here Which company in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 has the highest price to earnings ratio Oh I don't even know I don't know What is it Oh yeah I wouldn't have gotten that right Here's what I know Doctor Scott leaves on the board Okay I know that Okay I was going to pop this as a Tim all last week That's what you guys miss Oh my God Yeah You know what's great I would go home and then my dad would call me and he'd give me the same pop quiz and I'd get it wrong again Thanks dad That's why you love families Yeah exactly Listen what's going on is the market rotation We're definitely seeing that play out today but so much is still forgive me but it's all about COVID And Stephanie kelton was on Bloomberg TV with David Weston earlier also on an Bloomberg radio She is an economist She follows public policy And she's been following what's going on the economy She's pretty optimistic but she is concerned about the supply demand imbalances Here's what she had to say The supply side has revealed a lot of vulnerabilities And we've seen it at the ports and we've seen it with freight and trucking and all the rest of it And so the supply side I think overwhelms the demand side contributors to the inflationary pressure that we're currently dealing with And so much of course that's Stephanie kelton there from stony brook but it's so much of what happens right in the coming months is if we get beyond COVID perhaps to him and I were just talking about this off air What happens if in a month we're in a much better space Are we all traveling or we spending more money What does that do to the economy Yeah how does our spending shift And does it even matter if our spending shifts and we're still seeing some pork congestion and we're still seeing some factories in Asia closed Because a handful of COVID cases that has serious repercussions that can hit weeks months later I am curious I mean we talk about what the potential dampening effect on economic activity is But because of COVID but then you look back into 2020 and into 2021 we saw more of a shift in spending rather than a complete sort of tamp down in the economy That doesn't mean certain areas of the economy certain industries aren't going to be hit hard by this but they're still seem to be some resiliency and now only consumer spending but also business spending as well But talk about the rehab and the now and the headlines we get Macy's according to CNBC cutting store hours temporarily as COVID cases spike FedEx express is spending U.S. on call pickups from January the fourth looking at AmEx pushing back on the 24th of June January they were looking to release their AmEx flex but they don't want to bring their colleagues back and of course that's way out and several weeks out So this still speaks to companies that are trying to navigate this and finding difficulty particularly from a labor perspective Let's talk about that Labor perspective in that jolt stout of this morning with quit rates again at a record high 3% or four and a half million and some of the job openings Carol at least coming down a little bit but over 10 million I mean so elevated particularly when it comes to those pre-pandemic levels People are quitting and they're also finding new jobs and that's what we're seeing We continue to see them moving into new positions I do think we should mention though ISM manufacturing I know we had it up for our TV team I mean the gauge did fall but there was some underlying support delivery times are being reduced The prices for raw materials That's coming down That's a positive I mean can we I'm sorry can we just go back to the quiz state here because not all those people went out and got new jobs I mean they're gone And when you looked at some of the industries that they were in it really makes you wonder what's going on there This isn't just the great resignation like oh I'm going to move on and start a new business These are people that have my interpretation if I could will that seemed to just be dropping out Well it does remain to be seen what the definition of full employment looks like on the other side of this pandemic who permanently dropped out of the labor force but remain it reminds me of our conversation that we had with the CEO of Dave's hot chicken last week who said $15 an hour was the minimum wage that they were hiring And he was saying something like 20 bucks It's exactly at competitors who are advertising starting salaries of $20 an hour And how does that how does that filter into the higher cost that consumers then pay And then we get back to the I word inflation But you go back to that to the quit the jolt state here I mean you talk about the industries that we had hard as it wasn't just about pay It was also about the conditions that they were working under It was a lot of healthcare workers A lot of services workers And again this goes beyond just pay People have just reevaluated their lives and maybe decided it wasn't worth it at any price Yeah tough time for parents right now you know Second day in a row my kids nursery school is closed I'm not the only one who's struggling to find day care.
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Reality that we must face our city and school system must open to the world of business We still think that the economy once we on the other side of this omega will still be looking very slow This is balance of power with David Weston From Bloomberg world headquarters in New York to our television and radio audiences worldwide Welcome to ballots of power We're going to start today once again with a check on the markets and where they are today joining us is Abigail Doolittle So evident what are we seeing today that's different Very interesting action In fact I divergence between the growth and cyclical trade today in favor of value or the cyclical trade and not tech We have the S&P 500 at this point actually down earlier putting in an all time high The Dow is leading It is up at this point about 7 tenths of 1% On the other hand the tech heavy index is they are down down down more than 1% This has everything to do with rising yields Over the last two days the ten year yield backing up about 15 basis points may be a delayed reaction to the fed's message in December as folks seem to be a little bit less worried about omicron So here we are putting 2% back and play I know you have a well maybe you were talking about 2% getting you a tough time and I'm not making it 2% 1.7 if we get there as closer to 2% no question about it But sometimes what's the volume like Because obviously through the holidays it was very thin Yeah it's really interesting It is 50% above the 20 day moving average So if you factor in last week that of course would take down the average but even so it is way way above So a little bit of selling that we're seeing today means that those investors are fairly serious especially in terms of selling tech and apple is still down It's down 1.2% So not making that $3 trillion market again at least today I'm worried about alpha being under $3 trillion Thank you so much to do a little for that report on the markets As we enter 2022 the rebounding economy is facing a good deal of uncertainty over jobs or inflation of the fed pace of fed tapering Take us through it all We welcome Stephanie kelton Professor of economics the state university of New York at stony brook doctor kelton earlier serves as the chief economist the Senate budget committee So doctor cotton thank you so much for being with us As you look at the possible risks out into 2022 what's got your attention the most Well you look you're looking for the headwinds right I mean in terms of the economic outlook it is always a foot race between the tailwinds that you hope are strong enough to propel you forward and keep you keep the economy expanding Allow us to continue to add jobs at the sort of pace that we've been adding over the last number of months now It's been very strong but the risks are obviously you know what you're coming up against in terms of headwinds And David for me the big headwind has been from the very beginning of this The virus itself And as we got vaccines and as we got more of the population vaccinated and we began the reopening we started to see just how resilient the economy had been through this And then of course we get hit with Delta And then here comes a con So you know if we are lucky and what we're hearing from a lot of the experts turns out to be correct that all Macron is more transmissible but less difficult to deal with in terms of the health impacts and so forth And we're going to see maybe after the next three weeks or so will be this will be kind of rearview mirror in terms of omicron So if there's not another mutation and another variant that we have to deal with And I think the outlook looks pretty good to me The big headwind is the virus From your mouth to God's ears basically on the vaccine really taking care of the problems for us We're getting past the oh my At the same time as you look back at what we saw last year is the virus hitting the supply side of the equation of the demand side more because I think one thing that surprised some people was how much it hit the supply side which really drove inflation I think that's absolutely correct I mean there are both things are at play here right It is the case that we had extremely robust fiscal support this time unlike after the financial crisis and the fiscal fiscal response from Congress that after the 2008 economic downturn this time was much different We had much more robust fiscal support People had more money They had more income to spend coming out of the sort of reopening part of all of this And so there were demand impulses there at play that helped to allow consumers to go racing back in And it's really been a question of what people are trying to spend money on You know it isn't the case I don't believe that what we have is just a generalized case of too much money chasing too much too few of everything else right Goods and services People have been trying to buy a lot of goods And we still have been reluctant to go back into restaurants and on airplanes and hotels and the vacations and all the other things So you know the supply side has revealed a lot of vulnerabilities And we've seen it at the ports and we've seen it with freight and trucking and all the rest of it And so the supply side I think overwhelms the demand side contributors to the inflationary pressure that we're currently dealing with And of course it's not just goods and services that there's a lot of demand for it not allow supply And there's also workers We've had some difficulty with that What do you make of the job picture right now looking forward to those jobs numbers on Friday And the increasing wages we're seeing across the country Yeah so you know we got some numbers out today with the jolts report Now this is a look back right These are November numbers So this is really pre Al Macron but these numbers look really good I mean this is a labor market that continues to I think display a great deal of strength You continue to see high levels of quits That's true about four and a half million workers quit jobs in November But we added right 6.7 million higher And so while quits are really near historic highs it's also the case that on balance we are adding tons and tons of jobs in this recovery And so that's a really good news Most of the people who are quitting are quitting because they're taking more different jobs right They're not quitting and leaving the labor force In fact the labor forces continuing to grow Labor force is strong by 1.8 million over the last 9 months So we're adding back jobs We've got a lot of strength in the labor market Yes some workers are enjoying by virtue of having a little bit of additional bargaining power the ability to leave a job they didn't like move into a better job a better paying job and to the extent that this labor market is allowing people to enjoy that sort of increase in wages along with an improving economy I think that's a good thing What does this all say to the fed as we enter this new year The feds indicated they're going to are in the process of tapering their bond buying purchases We don't know yet about the rate hikes What do you anticipate in 2022 Well look I think we know that the fed would really like to be able to raise rates probably would like to be able to get in three hikes this year whether that turns out to be possible or not I think again we got to come back to the virus.
"stephanie kelton" Discussed on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
"Tra- standards over here saying at msnbc. This is what we do and this is where we are today now. nine house. Democrats sent a letter to speaker. Nancy pelosi saying quote. We will not consider voting for the budget resolution until the bipartisan infrastructure. Investment and jobs act passes the house and his signed into law end quote. The moderate democrats are reportedly concerned about the so-called price tag that three and a half trillion dollar reconciliation bill which includes childcare universal. Pre-k free community. College paid leave. Medical leave healthcare expansion glasses. Dental things like that senator. Joe manchin raised the same concerns earlier this week. Quote millions of jobs remain unfilled across the country and rising inflation rates are now an unavoidable tax on the wages and income of every american these are not indications of an economy that requires trillions in additional spending given the current state of the economic recovery. It is simply irresponsible to continue spending at levels more suited to respond to a great depression or great recession not an economy that is on the verge of overheating so joe mansions worried about the cost but there's another much higher cost that he should be much more worried about or at least acknowledging in his calculation. Stephanie kelton is a professor of economics and public policy at stony brook university. She's the author of the deficit. Myth seventy good to see you again. Joe mentioned and others are missing a very big point that this is not spending for the sake of stimulating. The economy spending it spending on things. We should actually spend so when you when you built the the highway system. In america the purpose of that was not stimulating. The economy it was to build a highway system so that people can get around the things that this reconciliation. Bill is going to address like eyeglasses and dental care for people who don't have it like the cost of college tuition. it's the same thing stimulating the economy. I agree with you completely. I don't think we should be thinking about the proposed three and a half trillion dollar package as economic stimulus. That's not what it's about it at all as you say it's about president was referring to it early on his part of the bill. Back better agenda. This was an agenda aimed at making some really big and strategic investments in things like healthcare in education in elder care in infrastructure and a broad range of things that you just mentioned so. I think you're exactly right. This isn't about Stepping on the gas pedal and trying to juice the economy. This is about taking aim at many of the real deficits you know the deferred maintenance that things that we've long ignored in our economy and attempting to make some investments that boost economic well-being. So there's there's always this selective concern about deficit and debt. No republicans had it in two thousand seventeen when we had massive tax cuts that were supposed to result in everybody getting four thousand dollars extra whatever the case is but there. There's a disregard for the millions of hungry children in this country. The millions of people who can't afford a college education the millions of people can't get their healthcare the way they need to end the long-term economic costs of that. That's generational that sticks around for decades if you fail people on that front if you if you we've seen it with the child tax credit you give people a little bit of money upfront. Who actually need the money and it immediately betters their circumstance circumstance and therefore enriches the economy. I mean that's a perfect example. Because this is a single provision in a piece of legislation that congress passed this march and just that single provision the expansion of the child tax credit is going to lift almost half of all the kids who were living in poverty in this country out of poverty. The problem is it's it was a temporary move and what this next piece of legislation in the three and a half trillion. That's being proposed. There is an effort to make that more permanent to extend it up to five years. And so you know you. You look at an accomplishment like that said we just pulled almost half of all the kids living in this country out of poverty. Why on earth would we let them slide back yet. We've demonstrated how easy it was to pull half of them out. Why don't we turn our attention to the and it was pretty cheap. Compared to a whole bunch of other things we do pretty cheap. I guess my question is the inflation. Cudgel is back and and people often use it with respect to if we have too much debt. The money will be worthless and we'll have inflation. The inflation that we're seeing today is real. Gas prices are up fifty percent off from where they were last year. None of which has that anything to do with debt or or deficits. Yes absolutely right. I mean what we're experiencing our what. I've been calling growing pains. We have just been through. And let's be real. We're still going through it right. This virus is not done with us and so we have an economy. And i'm telling you about a global economy that has experienced in different parts of the world at different times. Waves of the corona virus that have led to shutdowns lockdowns partial shutdowns disruptions in the supply chain and the ability to produce manufacturing ship goods and services. And i think we have actually held up remarkably well in light of all that we've been through yes. Inflation is running hot. it's moderating and i think we're starting to make the adjustments that are necessary to bring the economy fully back online and to bring inflation back down to more normal levels and we're seeing it already begin to happen. I think we're getting there. And i think you're right where we're starting to see some republicans many republicans. And maybe some democrats get skittish in light of recent inflationary pressures but you gotta keep in mind that so much of what is in. This proposed three point five. Trillion dollar spending package actually helps mitigate inflationary pressures. There's money there to build more semiconductors. There's money there to help with childcare. So people can enter the labor market again. You know what i'm saying is that you can actually spend money and reduce inflationary pressures. We shouldn't be thinking of all spending as something that necessarily pushes prices higher lot of what we're proposing here. Or what's being proposed actually has the potential to build our economic capacity increase productivity help reduce inflationary pressures but we have this built-in reaction that when you give poor low wealth people anything it's a giveaway that The rest of us and our grandchildren are going to be paying for stuff and he good to see you again. Thank you for joining.