23 Burst results for "Stanley Druckenmiller"
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
"Today's featured stories and opinion piece from Isaiah Douglas, a certified public accountant and partner at Vince here, wealth management. Today's feature is entitled Bitcoin is the song that does not end. Never mind what the naysayers are claiming about Bitcoin in the midst of this down crypto market. In the case for sustained Bitcoin interest and continually improving fundamentals remains as sound as ever. Recently, a prominent personal finance guru posted the following comment on Twitter. Quote, please notice all the Bitcoin promoters who have tucked tail and vanished in the next 12 months, I predict the same thing will happen to the passive income real estate Bros. It will be glorious. While I agree with his comment on passive income real estate, I feel the potshot of Bitcoin is based on opinion and not steeped in the truth. Let me provide some context and explain why I believe Bitcoin interest is as strong as ever. For context, what most people need to recognize is that the monetization of Bitcoin takes decades, not months. Regarding the strength in Bitcoin interest, here are a few pieces of evidence. First, I've noticed no reduction in interest in Bitcoin, despite the recent price decline. Conversations are only just picking up steam as people are starting to probe into unanswered questions. Questions about what money is and what are the funding is for all the government spending. This became obvious to me after I was recently asked to be in the Bitcoin book club with financial advisers looking to learn more about Bitcoin. Second, fewer people are selling Bitcoin than you may realize. Stanley druckenmiller mentioned that when he was first interested in Bitcoin, a stat Paul Tudor Jones shared stuck with rocket Miller do you know that when Bitcoin went from $17,000 to $3000 that 86% of people that owned it at $17,000 never sold it, end quote the comments on the acclaimed financial gurus post were also littered with comments like I'm still here and nothing has changed. But we have the facts to back up those claims that Bitcoin holdings have remained remarkably steady. According to glass note, 78% of Bitcoin supply hasn't moved at all in 6 months. Third, if the Bitcoin promoters were all gone, the hash rate would be dropping. Third, if these so called Bitcoin promoters were all gone, the hash rate would be dropping. The ash rate refers to the level of computing power given to the network through mining, yet despite the price, Bitcoin, yet despite the price, the Bitcoin hashrate has been making all time highs. There's a saying in Bitcoin that miners are the most bullish bitcoiners of all. That's because of the risks and capital outlays as well as the time it takes to plan, execute and sustain as a minor. If Bitcoin was on its deathbed, the hash rate wouldn't be climbing the way that it is. We can revisit these ideas 12 months from now, and the odds are the Bitcoin will still be creating blocks every ten minutes that the hash rate will be higher and that there will still be a 21 million supply cap and as an aside that the adoption of the network will still be increasing. Not only is investor interest in Bitcoin still high, developer interest in crypto continues to evolve. The builders in the crypto industry are rolling out products and services to make snoring, spending, and running a business on Bitcoin easier. The building has been nonstop. One of the most exciting things I've seen is the interest in small business owners and looking at how to accept Bitcoin payments. This has always been challenging for merchants, given the challenges associated with confirmations and block times in the Bitcoin blockchain, being approximately ten minutes. Here are a few projects that are working on solutions for that. Ibex, that's ibex, has a superb offering on Bitcoin second layer called the lightning network. It allows for a plug and play solution enabling merchants to accept lightning network payments and add margin by cutting their processing fees by 80%. As a point of reference, this solution charges 0.5%, while stripe charges 2.9% or 30 cents per swipe. Oshie is another unique project. It's helping small businesses with Bitcoin rewards. It allows those businesses and easy way to start earning Bitcoin and offering Bitcoin rewards to customers and clients. Whether your local plumber, brewery, owner, coffee shop, or veterinarian, owners want new business. I know she's bet, is that new customers would like Bitcoin rewards. And the last project we'll talk about here is, which was recently released to help bridge the gap between secure but complex self custody and simple but regulated third party custody. The third option that this project proposes could help decentralize custody for the masses. You can find links to all of these things in the show notes. The financial media and legacy gurus missed that Bitcoin's price is one thing and that the adoption story and technology around the ecosystem is another. What they fail to recognize is that the Bitcoin train has left the station and over the long term, there's no slowing it down. Bitcoin is the song that does not end. The promoters haven't tucked tail, but instead are holding and building for the millions to come next. And by the way, if you've never heard the song that does not end, you can check it out. On YouTube. And that's our show for today. Thank you very much for listening this episode is edited by Adrian blust and we'll be back tomorrow with another news roundup and just a reminder that coin desk is a news source and is not provide investment advice.
The Breakdown
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on The Breakdown
"By nexo IO, circle, and FTX, and produced and distributed by coindesk. What's going on guys? It is Sunday, November 6th, and that means it's time for long read Sunday. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation. Come join us on the breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit LY slash breakdown pod. Also a disclosure as always, in addition to them being a sponsor of the show, I also work with FTX. All right, friends will today for long read Sunday. We're acknowledging the anniversary that happened this week on Monday on Halloween, which is of course the 14th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper. Today I'm going to read a couple of pieces about Bitcoin sort of in the context of this market cycle, and while they're not exactly direct reflections on those 14 years, they do give a good sense of where Bitcoin and the Bitcoin community is right now. The first is by Isiah Douglas and is called Bitcoin as the song that does not end. Bitcoin prices have fallen, but user interest in developer activity remain as strong as ever. Never mind what the naysayers are claiming about Bitcoin in the midst of this down crypto market, the case for sustained Bitcoin interest and continually improving fundamentals remains as sound as ever. Recently a prominent personal finance guru ramit sethi posted the following comment on Twitter. Ramit writes, please notice all the Bitcoin promoters who have tucked tail and vanished. In the next 12 months, I predict the same will happen to the passive income real estate Bros. It will be glorious. While I agree with his comment on passive income real estate, I feel the pot shot at Bitcoin is based on opinion and not steeped in the truth. Let me provide some context and explain why I believe Bitcoin interest is a strong as ever. Three proofs of Bitcoin interest. As for context, what most people need to recognize is that the monetization of Bitcoin takes decades not months. In regards to strength of Bitcoin interest, here are a few pieces of evidence. First, I've noticed no reduction in interest in Bitcoin despite the recent price decline. Conversations are only just picking up steam as people are starting to probe into unanswered questions. Questions about what money is and where the funding is for all the government spending. This became obvious to me after I was recently asked to be in a Bitcoin book club with financial advisers looking to learn more about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the song that does not end. Second, fewer people are selling Bitcoin than you may realize. Stanley druckenmiller mentioned that when he was first interested in Bitcoin, a conversation with Paul Tudor Jones helps spurs enthusiasm. A stat Paul Tudor Jones shared stuck with truck and Miller. Quote, do you know that when Bitcoin went from 17,000 to 3000, the 86% of the people that owned it at 17,000 never sold it? The comments on the acclaimed financial gurus posts were also littered with comments like I'm still here and nothing has changed. But we have facts to back up these claims that Bitcoin holding has remained steady. According to glass nodes, 78% of Bitcoin supply hasn't moved in 6 months. Bitcoin is the song that does not end. Third, if the Bitcoin promoters were all gone, the hashrate would be dropping. Hashrate refers to the level of computing power given to the network through mining. Yet despite the price, the Bitcoin hashrate has been making all time highs. There is a saying in Bitcoin that miners are the most bullish bitcoiners of all. That's because of the risks and capital outlays as well as the time it takes to plan, execute and sustain as a minor. If Bitcoin was on its deathbed, the hash rate wouldn't be climbing the way it is. We can revisit this post 12 months from now and the odds are that Bitcoin will still be creating blocks every ten minutes that the hash rate will be higher, that there will still be a 21 million supply cap and that the adoption of the network will be increasing. Bitcoin is the song that does not end. Developer activity continues. Not only is investor interest in Bitcoin still high, developer interest in crypto continues to evolve. The builders in the crypto industry are rolling out products and services to make storing, spending, and running a business on Bitcoin easier. The building has been nonstop. One of the most exciting things I've seen is the interest in small business owners and looking at how to accept Bitcoin payments. This has always been challenging for merchants given the challenges of confirmations and block times on the Bitcoin main chain being approximately ten minutes. Here are a few projects that are working to provide solutions. Ibex has a superb offering on Bitcoin second layer called the lightning network. It allows for a plug and play solution enabling merchants to accept lightning network payments and adding margin by cutting their processing fees by 80%. Oshi, another unique project is helping small businesses with Bitcoin rewards. It allows those businesses an easy way to start earning Bitcoin and offering Bitcoin rewards to customers and clients. Whether you're a local plumber, brewery owner, coffee shop or veterinarian, owners want new business. And oshie's bet is that new customers desire Bitcoin rewards. Was recently released to help bridge the gap between secure but complex self custody and simple but regulated third party custody. The third option that this project proposes could help decentralize custody for the masses. Bitcoin is the song that does not end. The takeaway financial media and legacy gurus missed that Bitcoin's price is one thing and that the adoption story and technology around the ecosystem is another. What they fail to recognize is that the Bitcoin train has left the station and over the long term there's no slowing it down. Bitcoin is the song that does not end. The promoters haven't talked tail, but are instead holding and building for the millions to come next. Now, for those of you who are regular listeners of the show, I don't think there will be anything particularly surprising or that doesn't jive with your existing opinion. Although I do particularly like his example of a Bitcoin book club for wealth advisers. Know what I wanted to read it and what I thought would be interesting to make note of is the fact that there has been so much less of the Bitcoin is dead narrative this time around. Remits posts just doesn't read as true. In previous cycles you could argue that people really did leave en masse that capital left, the talent left that there was less interest. This cycle has seen something very, very different. And that's across every aspect of basically the entire crypto ecosystem. Now certainly certain ecosystems are doing better than others. Bitcoin has a strong core that is probably the most resilient to any of these fluctuations in market pricing. But it really is a different bear market and one that shows just how here for the long term, both Bitcoin and the community around it really are. Want to keep more profits when trading? Get the best possible prices and trade with 50% lower fees on nexo pro. The new spot and futures trading platform uses aggregated liquidity of over 3000 order books collected from multiple sources. Utilizing the complete nexo suite allows you to earn interest and borrow funds as you wait for the next trade setup. Visit pro dot nexo IO. That's PRO dot N EXO dot IO and sign up today. This episode is brought to you by circle. The sole issuer of USD C and a leader in crypto that's held to a higher standard. USD C is a fast, safe and efficient way to send money around the globe. USD C is always redeemable one to one for U.S. dollars, and has over $45 billion in circulation as of October 13th, 2022. Plus, circle posts weekly reserve reports and monthly attestations of reserve capital, letting users know that USD C is safe transparent and compliant with regulations. Just go to circle dot com backslash transparency to see why USD C is a trusted stablecoin. The breakdown is sponsored by FTX U.S. FTX U.S. is the safe regulated way to buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital assets. With up to 85% lower fees than competitors. There are no fixed minimum fees, no ACH transaction fees, and no withdrawal fees. One of the largest exchanges in the U.S. FTX U.S. is also the only leading exchange that supports both Ethereum and Solana NFTs. When you trade NFTs on FTX, you pay no gas fees. Download the FTX app today and use referral code breakdown to support the show. Next
Bitcoin Magazine Podcast
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on Bitcoin Magazine Podcast
"Gold and Bitcoin are monetary assets. They don't produce cash flow. And so they get valued by this kind of market process of people trying to determine it's a game theoretic process. People trying to determine, is this better money than all the other monies that are out there? Is it better than gold? Has it been dollars? Is it better than silver? Is it better than Ethereum or all the competitors that are out there? And that process kind of works in these cycles that we've seen where people get really enthusiastic. And then you run out of steam and then you have a crash. So the thing about monetary assets, the point I'm trying to make about monetary assets is that they don't have cash flow. And so you have to you have to measure their worth as monetary asset against other competitors and along the attributes that make for a good money. One of those attributes, they are things like visibility, portability, transmissibility, how easy is it to transmit? And most importantly, scarcity, and along this one critical attribute that all money is need, Bitcoin is the best form of money that's ever existed. This hasn't changed. This fundamental aspect of what makes Bitcoin good or I think the best money hasn't changed. It's just the market goes through these cycles of people trying to understand what it is and people getting overexcited and then kind of losing hope and each one of these cycles is defined by a group of people. In the first cycle, the group of people is very small. There are only people who could understand Bitcoin cipher punk's computer scientists and maybe some hardcore libertarians. It was a very small circle of people, but each cycle that circle gets bigger and bigger and bigger. And so we have gone through a cycle where we actually brought in a lot of retail investors, but there's many, many more retail investors. There's many more institutions. There's many more nation states out there. And a lot of them got a taste of Bitcoin. They may have given up and said, oh, you know, this thing has failed, but maybe they bought a little bit. Maybe they bought, say 1% of their portfolio, or maybe even a $100, and they gave up on Bitcoin, but those people are primed to come back in the next cycle. Now, I'll give you one example of this Stanley druckenmiller is a very famous macro investor billionaire, very successful, a very long period of time investing in making macro bits. He owned Bitcoin during this last cycle and very recently I heard him say that he doesn't own any Bitcoin.
Stansberry Investor Hour
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on Stansberry Investor Hour
"Now it's unwinding and it's unwinding the pace of the unwind actually double at the beginning of September this year to $95 billion a month. And what that means, that is the removal of the artificial suppression of longer term rates. And that means that interest rates can rise even if inflation comes down. Case in point, we just referenced that over the last 6 months, the break-even inflation numbers are coming down. But interest rates are going up. That's exactly what quantitative tightening is accomplishing. It is the allowing of real interest rates, meaning the yield over and above inflation to rise and normalize. So I think there's more room for interest rates to rise even with some optimism on the inflation front. All right, so a tempered view, but overall, you know, you can handle, I would like to think we could handle the rising rates better with a more stable economic picture because people do get hurt a lot by inflation. So they pull in the belt strings. So I wonder, do we still get folks like, I don't know, I guess the latest one was Stanley druckenmiller and others, you know, dalio, all these macro guys. Their outlook is really dire. I mean, they're talking about a potentially really bad recession in 2023. How would that figure into your outlook? You sound like you're not there maybe. I suppose I see things as a little bit softer on the landing than some others. And I'll give you one reason that I think is an important one. And it's domestically focused. It's kind of like a modest version of what happened post World War II. In the U.S., we had a several decade run of growth that was substantially outsized the rest of the world. And a lot of that was because post World War II, a lot of the rest of the world was
CNBC's Fast Money
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Of Netflix soar nearly 10% today. It was the second best performing stock in the S&P, the move comes after Atlantic equities upgraded the name to an overweight. It's our call of the day. Analysts saying that the launch of an ad supported two year later this year could boost the streamer share price back over two 80. That's a jump of nearly 40 bucks from today's close. Quick reminder, Netflix is still down 60% this year. And to boot, Carter Braxton worth of worth charting, sent out a note today with a number of charts for them, I believe, saying, it's a buy here. So you got these two things going down. I mean, some of us would say it looks like it's ready to party. I mean, there's some huge gaps in this thing. You know, I mean, the news has not been particularly great. It showed really good relative strength to the market when it was selling off in August. And again, there's this huge catalyst. I mean, the very thing that kind of took the stock down, it could be the very thing if they get right, we'll take it one step at a time to fill in those gaps. I think that we have really had a hard time saying that Netflix looks reasonable and evaluation basis for a very long time as long as we've been doing this show. Value lady bought it right over the summer when it was in the hole. Well, I bought the one share by accident, and then I added after that for The Crown. So I bought on The Crown, only got filled on one sheer bought some more. I mean, the valuation has come in. And I think that just, you know, when they missed twice, it was really the second miss that did them in. And all that momentum for whatever it was a 600 plus stock. They just bailed out at any price, no matter what. That's an interesting dynamic to me. 700 print actually, which is remarkable. If you think about it, and we all probably shouldn't say, I know I loved it then too. So the move down to one 80 or so was just hair raising, but we actually all said at the time. It was the first time maybe ever you were able to buy Netflix at a market valuation, even with the move. It's only training at 23 times next year's numbers, which is reasonable. So two 85, given, again, it doesn't matter where we are. But in terms of valuation, it's not unreasonable for the stock. So CBW likes it. Dan and Karen like it, Courtney probably digs it. Stranger Things, by the way. Tremendous. You've seen it? I thought you didn't add a stream anything. And now I get people to people for that. I don't have people for that. But they help me. But Winona Ryder, badass, digger. I mean, this is a more for a career than Betelgeuse. Remember that? No. There you go. Courtney, do you dig Netflix as guy quitted? Yeah, and I think as long as you're assuming that they can hit these numbers, this does look very attractive because their whole issue is that they're kind of stalling out with customers. But if we're in this period now or maybe people are having to cut their expenses, they're coming out with an ad supported tier and say, okay, you don't have to cancel Netflix, just get the lower subscription. And we can add revenue out of it. It's kind of a win win for everyone, which is really interesting with Netflix. All right, coming up, a big call from billionaire investor Stanley druckenmiller.
CNBC's Fast Money
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"The 5% or so that the company has averaged over the last 8 quarters or so after they've reported the most active options where the weekly 46 strike puts and buyers of those are betting that the stock is going to decline after earnings and they could also of course be hedging against a long position given the fact that the stock is obviously in a weak trend. And it's trading at a relatively cheap valuation. All right, very good. Thank you. T bone. T bone, I'm not even going to explain it anymore. I'm just going to call you T bone. For more options, actions be sure to tune in to the full show Friday at 5 30 p.m. eastern. Coming up the latest on AMC's new share offering, Karen's breaking down what you need to know. A finerman fine print is next. Plus social stocks taking it on the chin. In today's sell off, as you might imagine, where these names are headed next. When fast money returns. Well, look at that. Don't miss CNBC's delivering alpha, returning in person on September 28th. I'll be speaking with druck. Stanley druckenmiller of duquesne, family office. Good head shot. I don't know whether anyone has been more right for more years and given more money away. He's one of the best. Given more money away than he is and we share something very special. And that is a love for big German shepherds. Brooke and anyway, he's agreed to do it and we're looking forward to that. That'll be a highlight, I think. But because of drug. Because of me. But that'll be a highlight of delivering
Stansberry Investor Hour
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on Stansberry Investor Hour
"Alternately very inflationary and alternately kind of downturn ish and deflationary. And I think that's the way it's going to be. I think you're going to get this constant. Okay, what's next? Oh, maybe it's deflation. Oh, what's next? Oh, maybe it's more inflation, and it's going to be incredibly difficult, you know, it was easy in the bull market, right? It was easy, just buy what's going up. In this bear, not easy. In all bears not easy, but this one has some characteristics to it that make it unprecedented. You know, I mean, 3% interest rates just call it, you know, in the long bond and 8% of almost 9% inflation and it looks like we're going into a downturn. This cocktail is Stanley druckenmiller called it has never been presented to us before. So be careful, continue to be cautious and that is what I have to say for you this week. All right? So let's talk with my friend Dave lashman. Who is an inventor, I don't think I knew that before. And all the things that Dave and I talked about over the years, I didn't know he was an inventor. So let's talk about that and more with Dave lashman. Let's do it right now. Look, I think you know by now I'm always trying to tell you the really hard truths, even when especially when what I have to say is unpopular. Today, the hard truth is that your wealth is in danger. Everything you may have made in the bull market of the last decade could disappear very quickly. Some of it's probably gone already. This process has already started and even if the financial markets somehow avoid a devastating crash from here, inflation is still eating 8% of your money every year. I've spent 20 years helping people prepare for extreme market shifts just like the one we're going through right now in my role it stands very research. I recommended 24 triple digit winners and I called the collapse of Lehman Brothers with near perfect timing..
The Pomp Podcast
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on The Pomp Podcast
"I think it was Stanley druckenmiller actually was the one who said that that's how he got convinced to buy Bitcoin was that during the 2018 crash. Like 85% of people didn't sell. So he was like, well, these people are fucking crazy. So I'm going to go buy some too. You know what I think is going on there because I actually, I think this is such a good point and I was thinking of my pro Bitcoin argument. I want to touch on this one because I think it's fascinating of like you are right. There is a contingent of people. We don't know who they are, who don't sell in any of these they have it. I guess a better way of saying they have. Here's who I think they are. I'm going to make a gross over generalization here and I have absolutely no data to back this up. Let me just start with that. This is just like in my head. A good way to make money. I've been giving you the best justification for this idea I just came up with last week. Which is, you've got a bunch of countries, China, Russia, Iran, whatever. A bunch of like autocratic style countries that have wealth, right? China in particular are Russia clearly has a bunch of wealth from oil and gas and anything to do with essentially energy. And when you've got 5 to $10 billion, one to $5 billion in your local currency. And you're not really subject you don't have rights in the classic sense, right? Like people can come and put you in jail or take your money at any point. Now they don't always do that. And Russia sometimes they show up and you happen to kill yourself. But like in general, it wouldn't be a bad idea to take like 10% of your money and just stick it in Bitcoin. I actually think that's like part of this is like, they're not holding it because they think it's a good investment. It is a true insurance policy because it can not be grabbed. It's the Ukraine argument. A bunch of people pointed to Ukraine and they're like, oh my God, if you got uprooted from your home and you had to leave, you can't take your buildings. You can't take your business. You can't whatever. You can leave with your Bitcoin. Yes, technically is true. How many people were doing that? How do you get it into Bitcoin? For sure. Well, and just do the math for a second. Like, what's the current market cap of Bitcoin? It was like 500 billion now or something like that. That might be 400. 400 billion. All right. So we've got how many billionaires in just China alone. There's probably like a few hundred. Let's just, I'm going to make this up. Let's say there's a thousand billionaires in China. And on average, they're like median assets or something like three to $5 billion each. Let's use 5 because I can do the math in my head. Each one of them puts like 10% of their money in Bitcoin because you're like, I don't know, I might have to run, and I need to get something out of here. So you've got on average $500 million, give or take of any of these people in Bitcoin. You've got a thousand of them, plus you've got like a few other countries. And it's like, okay, there's like a few $100 billion Bitcoin market cap right there. Like there's the math. You can do it bottoms up in terms of like basically super rich billionaires in these autocratic nations, holding Bitcoin
Stansberry Investor Hour
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on Stansberry Investor Hour
"When two oldish guys get together and start talking about things, you know, you can learn a thing or two, I think, especially for Mark. I won't even say for me, but from Mark for sure. I mean, he's been around a long time. He's been there done that scene at all. And he's created this system that is, as he put it really robust, loaded with fundamental factors, which of course I love, I'm a fundamental investor, but there's also some momentum in there. So it's a pretty decent way to pick timely stocks, you know, not just something that you might expect to do well over the long term, which is more my bag. And you should check the webinar out. The idea of the role in crash is something that you should know about because as Mark laid out, you don't just want to pay attention to the big indexes. NASDAQ, S&P 500, Russell 2000. You know, they're good as far as they go, but they only go so far. And Marx work into industries is can give you a real advantage. I mean, great traders, some of the all time greatest traders do this. Stanley druckenmiller, I know, pays attention to which industries are strong and which ones are weak. So it's a really powerful thing that if you don't know about it, you should study it. And mark's tools are a great way to do that. So go to 2022, market warning dot com. Check out the webinar. All right. Time to take a look at the mailbag. Let's.
Stansberry Investor Hour
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on Stansberry Investor Hour
"War, you know, hunger, family, whatever, horrible things happen in the world. As long as they're not too horrible, right? If we all get nuked tomorrow, it's not going to matter what your portfolio is. But through just about any kind of economic calamity you can think of, I think holding this portfolio over the long term is going to do really well. And like I said, the point of this is you don't need to answer these questions about whether or not there's going to be inflation over the next couple of years or recession over the next couple of years or stagflation, which is basically, let's just talk about the difference. Inflation and recession are seen as opposites. Inflation is rising prices. Recession is falling prices. Inflation is a hot economy, right? Lots of economic activity, recession is a downturn in economic activity. And sometimes you can get these things mixed together where you don't get the dramatic upturn in economic activity, but you do get rising prices. That's really hard on wage earners who are living hand to mouth, but investors can still do really well by holding assets and holding that diversified portfolio that I just mentioned. So that's the real point of my rant this week. You don't need, if you're doing the right thing, you don't need to change it. You don't need to change what you're doing if you're truly diversified. Investing is not about constantly making these tactical maneuvers week after week or a month after month. If you're doing that, then maybe you're the next George Soros or Stanley druckenmiller or somebody and you don't need my advice. If you're confident enough to do that kind of thing, you don't need my advice. But if you're not sure what to do and you're just saving for retirement, you don't want to get obliterated by some economic trend..
What Bitcoin Did
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on What Bitcoin Did
"Exactly. Wow. And they were the things that pre they were the instruments that foresaw the default of Lehman Brothers and bear Stearns and the like. So how does the bond market get fixed? Because it sounds like it's a broken market right now. I mean, it still works, how it's meant to work, but in terms of earning a return, if all bonds are essentially negative yielding on a real basis on a real basis. And we know some people have to buy them. Yes. Because they're mandated to. But essentially, it is a broken system. It's a fear system that doesn't make logical sense. Peter, I don't know how it gets fixed if they do not let yields go to their natural level. Now, that natural level is open for debate. But Stanley druckenmiller feels that the natural level for U.S. ten year treasuries would be four and a half percent. Again, it's trading at 1.5% right now. There's other people that argue that the fed is not impacting the shape of the yield curve. And I just say, come on, guys. There's an elephant in the room that was purchasing a $120 billion worth of bonds a month. A month. Tell me that's not impacting the fed. Excuse me, the yield curve. And if someone says it isn't, I think that you've never traded markets before. There's Bond bulls out there that are swear that swear that it hasn't impacted the yield curve and I'll just go guys, take your heads out of your out of the sand because supply and demand is what it is. And that's what sets the price of bonds. Okay, sorry. What's stopping bonds for each their natural rate of four and a half percent? Again, fed in the market buying a 120 billion of it per month. Right. That's just the biggest buyer out there by far, is in the market. And when you're a buyer, you're soaking up sellers, meaning the way I yield rises Peter is the price goes down. And when the price of the bond goes down to reach an equilibrium level, the yield on the Bond gets adjusted accordingly. So as the price goes down, the yield goes up. And we'll do a quick Bond math here. If a ten year bond were to move from one and a half percent to four and a half percent, where Stan Lee drug and Miller thinks it should trade. The price or principal trading value of the bond would drop by over 25%.
The Breakdown with NLW
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on The Breakdown with NLW
"Bitcoin as a macro investment. This investment thesis looks at bitcoin as a store of value and compares the macroeconomic factors at play in the us and in the world. The thought behind it is that as we see inflation rise due to the increase supply of fiat currency the value. Bitcoin will rise dramatically because bitcoin has a very fixed supply. This is the thesis that many bitcoin investors have been following for years but it became very popular and well known in twenty twenty when legendary macro hedge fund manager. Paul tudor jones announced. He was allocating some of his portfolio to bitcoin. He was followed shortly by stanley druckenmiller. And bill miller who are also macro investors the fiat money printing in the us and in most of the western world as a result of the in nineteen pandemic accelerated the potential for inflation as we've seen trillions more dollars created and dispersed into the economy. Now we have finally started to see evidence of inflation which has fueled this. Bitcoin investment thesis. Why would i need to hold bitcoin as an inflation hedge restore value. Let's assume i can hypothetically buy a loaf of bread for one dollars today in a year. What if the same loaf of bread cost me. One dollars. Five cents which means we had five percent inflation. That happens because we added more dollars but not more bread to the system. Therefore the bread is worth more dollars. If i keep all my money in dollars in the bank where. I'm earning virtually no interest. I can't buy a loaf of bread and a year with my one dollar. If i think that will happen. I want my money. Saved in an asset that also has a limited supply just like the bread in the past that asset might have been gold now however we have an asset with a very limited supply which is very easy to buy and keep safe compared to physical gold. I can hold my dollar and bitcoin and in a year. I would assume the price of my bitcoin would go up by at least the same amount as the bread therefore if i need to buy bread i can sell my bitcoin for at least a dollar five now extrapolate that investment over the entire world economy and we can see why these titans of macro investing want allocate two to five percent of their holdings to bitcoin. They see inflation coming and they want an asset with finite supply that will increase in value with the decrease in dollar value. When you were your clients reads about an increase in inflation leading to a possible increase in the value of bitcoin or about institutions like insurance companies and pensions investing in bitcoin. This is usually the thesis. they're using bitcoin. As a micro investment. This is where most advisers are going to stand with their clients. Your oh here's to identify partly based on the previously mentioned investment theses how to help your clients allocate to bitcoin based on the risk profile technical prowess and time horizon of your clients you can assess not only the allocation of bitcoin but also the treatment of the asset. When you trade. How often do you rebalance etc. Remember that many of those institutions investing in bitcoin for the inflation hedge have a very long or even infinite time horizon. Your clients have a limited time horizon and each will be different if your clients are in their early forties. you're probably talking to them about the impact. Inflation will have on their retirement funds. If we also assume you subscribe to the inflation hedge thesis above. Bitcoin fits as part of your clients. Retirement planning at a reasonable allocation based on their risk tolerance. The volatility of bitcoin also allows for an investment when thinking about it for individual clients because bitcoin is not correlated in highly liquid. You have the ability to rebalance possibly quarterly and provide clients with overall portfolio returns. That are more normalized. This bitcoin micro investment thesis is about taking the possible effects of the price of bitcoin and adapting them to individual family portfolios with more limited time horizons necessary expenses and traditional assets using these investment thesis as a lens. Is you start to learn more about bitcoin. And even to help your clients with allocations crypto. you will definitely hear from influencers analysts and bitcoin enthusiasts about the reasoning for holding or not holding bitcoin. Your role as an advisor is to understand these main investment theses. And you have the ability to determine how any opinions analyses affects your clients portfolios and financial. Lives have you seen influence or analysts or the news through the lens of one of these investment. These you'll be better prepared to have those important conversations with your clients back to l. w. here as i said yesterday in the show i've been thinking a lot recently based on some people asking me the question. What phase of the market were in. If i had to summarize where bitcoin in crypto are right. Now what is it and the answer. That i gave yesterday or two days ago. I can't even remember at this point with something. Like on the cusp and what i meant. Is that. Bitcoin has been on the verge of mainstream for a long time. But it is really really on the cusp. Now we're sitting here with there being a good percentage chance of bitcoin futures. Etf finally approved. And while i've gone into why that might not be that big a deal. It is a meaningful moment in historical significance. We've course have the experiment and el salvador where there is an entire country running on the lightning network increasingly bringing that economic activity to the bitcoin system. We have a significant number of new actors new types of people getting involved in crypto and digital assets every single day and while some are sure here for a quick buck there are many who are being orange into the space and really really going deep and trying to understand it. We have obviously huge mainstream marketing activity from numerous crypto companies around the world and integrations and partnerships with major major brands everywhere. You look bitcoin and digital assets are on the verge and i think what's important about pieces like this is it shows that there's more than one door to walk through as people start their journey to get comfortable with this whole space. I'm a huge fan of us. Being more articulate about different doors that people can walk through to give them a chance to find the reason this makes sense for them to come in at their own pace in their own way. I think anyone who's here probably who's listening to this. Podcast has a sense of just how much this industry will pull you in. If you let it even a little bit in many ways it feels like the doors themselves are more important than where people end up either way. I appreciate this piece from adam. And i hope you enjoyed it as well until tomorrow guys be safe and take care of each other piece..
CoinDesk Podcast Network
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
"Lot of the things chain analysis has helped unlock or things like child. Porn rings things that we all basically find beyond the pale has always the issue with surveillance and law enforcement tools. Isn't that they don't get bad guys. It's at the infringe on the rights of others as they do. So that is the central tradeoff that societies have to debate and ultimately make. This is going to continue to be a fraud. Conversation as the very nature of blockchain's makes them so powerful. A surveillance tool indeed. I remember reading somewhere about a month ago that there is some rumbling that fbi and other law enforcement offices in dc kind of like the state of blockchain regulation right now because they've gotten pretty good using it to actually be a tool rather than a hindrance for law enforcement lasts up on the roof today. Robin hood has new crypto features coming. There's no denying that. Robin hood has brought a ton of people into the crypto space. Over the last few years robin hood has been a major force in exactly what they tried to do or say. They tried to do in their mission. Democratizing finance particularly during the pandemic robin hood brought a whole new set of newly available day. Traders into the market however robin hoods relationship with its users hasn't always been peachy keen. There was intense tension around this january when robin hood actually shut down trading of key stock assets and indeed does coin based on pressures from outside. I did a ton of shows back a few months ago. About that. Which i really loved doing and i highly recommend if you're interested in this look up. Robin hood look memes stocks. Look up jimmy. One of them even started with a sea shanty either. Way for crypto. People the big issue with robin hood has been its withdrawal and transfer policies. In other words. You couldn't really say it was your crypto because you could never take it out of robinhood you could only sell it well. Robinhood is now finally announcing that they're rolling out wallet and transfer features. This is obviously too little too late for some but for many people it means that they will fully be participants in the crypto industry. Even if they're only access point is robin hood. Currently robinhood has seven cryptos. It's sort of a particularly weird and out of date set but either way crypto is clearly a big business for these guys revenue between quarter to of twenty twenty and quarter. Two of two thousand. Twenty one was up. Four thousand two hundred eighty two percent sixty two percent. Meanwhile of robin hood's attributable revenue from crypto was from dose coin which is perhaps a perfect segue to our main topic which is mainstreaming twenty. Twenty one is undeniably. The biggest here for crypto mainstreaming in history. And when i say mainstreaming i mean context in which people who wouldn't natively or previously have been crypto users having a reason to interact with some part of the industry in many ways. I think we can argue. That twenty twenty was a mainstreaming year as well specifically for bitcoin and specifically with institutional investors from the moment that the march crisis happened and bitcoin bounceback quicker than anything else. And then paul tudor. Jones came out with his great monetary inflation thesis. And then that was echoed by people like bill miller and stanley druckenmiller and then it became a treasury asset and then more hedge fund started getting in and then more institutional investors started. Getting in. this was a mainstreaming moment. Undeniably this is of course persisted this year for bitcoin. You have so many examples of previous holdouts. Big wealth managers big banks all coming to the bitcoin. Space night egg. This show sponsor has been on an absolute tear getting millions of community banks and local financial institutions the capacity to offer bitcoin directly from people's bank accounts for example. What's more there is obviously the biggest example of bitcoin mainstreaming in the world this year. Which is the grand experiment. That has now started in el salvador. It'll soon be time. I think for a check in on how that's going now that we have a few weeks to get away from the immediate buzz harm frustration complications around bu kelly etc but i think regardless of what one thinks there is no denying that it is the most significant. Bitcoin mainstreaming experiment that we have ever had this. Podcast is sponsored by dick and institutional bitcoin firm but sees bitcoin as a gateway to financial security for people around the world. Find out more.
The Pomp Podcast
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on The Pomp Podcast
"Dad what's up man. I'm great tap. Eero as i said. That's how you say it directly many times before. So i don't know what god said. His aim wrong what zoom he started roasting me for saying. I know you have problems with names ending an all but you know this is an easy one here you hear. How are you good good. I mean i've been busy as can be you know we've sort of had even limited interactions. It's just been a whirlwind. The last four five months in been off twitter. I mean on but not as much as before and you know not as deeply ingrained in sort of the the markets as we build up the ten t it talked to us about ten t and what the original idea was and then walk us through this seven hundred fifty million dollars fundraiser across the various vehicles. Yeah you know. the idea. Originally was to build a broad sort of macro sector exposure to the digit to the growth in the digital acidy. Go system so. I'm pretty hardcore big pointer when i also think there is a world where there are lots of things growing up in the overall ecosystem lots of great businesses that have grown up. And i'm not. My background is not as a venture capitalist. So i don't have specialty in. You know trying to figure out which code is better. Which chain is going to work for whatever it is and so i said to myself look. There's there's a lot going on. And this in the private equity world in the digital ecosystem. There are a lot of companies that are a lot larger than people understand. And you know. I'd like to get that kind of exposure for my own personal portfolio ended de tap capital and so went about the idea of constructing this portfolio of ten to fifteen businesses operating in the
The Pomp Podcast
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on The Pomp Podcast
"Or more innovative around our solutions out there. How do we think about payments. I think it's well. Well understood the traditional approach to payments in this country and through the financial system. But is there a way to revolutionize or innovative around payments to be More nimble and more innovative in that area and so we're really thinking about it from an ecosystem from competitive lands it perspective. It's not just one and done in terms of the solution. It's not just putting one Type of coin or one third party strategy on the platform and then we're going to call it a day. We really need to think about the innovation cycles. That's the worn out of it. But that's what we're really excited about that being said you know there's a long runway for growth in innovation and so we've been watching this very very closely For a number of years now but we're starting to get a lot more active in terms of thinking about the product solution. Set that we really need going for one of the things it's fascinating to me is as you look at it holistically. It's almost now at the point where you're like. Of course we have clients that are going to want to buy this stuff. Hold it custody at trade it It doesn't feel like that was probably the thought process among many of your clients to three years ago into any insights that you can provide in terms of just. What's driven is it literally. you know. Paul tudor jones stanley druckenmiller fidelity You all and a whole bunch of others that they consider to be the smart money kind of saying..
The Breakdown with NLW
Crypto to Replace Dollar as Worlds Reserve Currency?
"What's going on guys. It is tuesday may eleventh. And today we are talking about some fiery comments from billionaire investor stanley druckenmiller about how the dollar will lose its reserve currency status first over. Let's talk about why we're dedicating a whole episode to one investors comments. There's a tendency. Thanks to modern media to over valorize things that rich guys say it's easy it gets clicks and views in downloads however bitcoin crypto show more than basically any other industry in history. How often it is the a nonce in the plebs who have the right of the way. The world is changing far before the beneficiaries of the old order feel the sand shifting under their feet that said even acknowledging that we still live in a world where traditional finance is dominated by trends pointed out by these seminal figures amplified through traditional outlets aka financial cable news for that reason when a storied investor makes a big proclamation in both the world's most renowned economics newspaper and on whatever you would call cnbc it suggests that the arguments contained within our more broadly resonant in the markets than we previously knew. Indeed we saw this all too well. Last year twenty twenty. It was a huge inflection. Point for many investors. We'd been living with the legacy of the great financial crisis for a decade and while many were concerned about the long term fallout of what they saw as artificially low interest rates and perhaps overly involved fed. They had to acknowledge that the consumer price inflation that they had feared had failed to materialize. There were of course. Other strange dislocations asset prices most notably but up until last year there wasn't a great fear when the entire world responded to the covid nineteen crisis with massive monetary and fiscal intervention. This started to shift and those concerns came roaring back. Here's how paul tudor jones. Put it at the beginning of his. Seminal great monetary inflation note. Last may
The Breakdown with NLW
What an Increasingly Booming Economy Means for Bitcoin
"What's going on guys. It is thursday april twenty ninth and tenth day we are asking the question of what an increasingly booming economy means for bitcoin. So the setup for this. Is that obviously for. Bitcoin and bitcoin has always been a macro asset in the sense that it is fundamentally about reorganizing the global economy in some way when it comes to the rest of the world however it's really only been in the last year that that idea of bitcoin as a meaningful player on the macro stage has come to the fore. The connection was made first and most profoundly by. Paul tudor jones with his great monetary inflation thesis. And since then. Bitcoin has been tied up in its digital gold narrative as an inflation hedge. Right there's no way to deny looking at micro strategy getting in and michael sailor talking about the melting ice cube of cash as a treasury reserve asset and stanley druckenmiller seeing five to ten percent inflation over the next few years. There's no way to deny that bitcoins. Narrative has been tied up in the fear of looming inflation. The question then becomes. What if that starts to withdraw. What if the macro narrative shifts. Where does that leave bitcoin so today. That's what we're going explore. And i think the start. Let's start with this idea of it. Being a booming economy one of the wall street journal's lead headlines today is. Us economy appears to be lifting off. Economists are projecting a quote robust consumer led recovery. Gdp grew at six point. Four percent seasonally adjusted in q one which is almost exactly what economists had predicted. What's more consumer confidence is approaching pre pandemic levels. In fact it's the highest. It's been in fourteen months and it's done nothing but increase for months in a row in particular a low income band people and families earning between twenty five and thirty five thousand dollars. A year has increased dramatically in march. Nine hundred thousand new jobs created an unemployment went down six percent.
Biz Talk Radio
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio
"Out there. Dow Just middling around today. Nothing crazy down 24 a couple of weeks ago On Friday, the Dow closed at 29,000. And I thought 30 was the bottom of the support, um, under 20 a cataclysmic results on Monday. Luckily, Joe Biden called in 10 Republicans. Mr Market started thinking, all right. Maybe they'll come to a stimulus plan, which they did $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Bernie Sanders is not happy with it some others and not happy with it. But the market overall is held at bay by more. A little later on, but Robin Hood and short sellers and who squeezed them. And why. What happened? Um, to break that down and more I'm drawn, joined right now by George say he's with Annandale Capital and George Robin Hood is the hot, new shiny object pretty big for the last few years. But now they're going to be dragon Vlad in front of Maxine Waters. What do you think will happen from this well any time Congress starts meddling in the financial markets unless toe punished, people engaged in fraud or embezzlement or other Really bad behavior. I get quick. They don't know anything about the markets. They don't understand them. They're gonna have to ask questions about him. So I'm a little business on this Robin Hood in the stacks and stocks like Zuma ball given credibility. We're kind of reliving the late nineties again now whether this goes on another two or three years or in soon, who knows, But Robin Hood's a great They even if people cast dispersion on retail investors and say they're just gambling, and they're gonna lose a lot of money doing stuff like game stopped, and I am seeing other things like that. I'm all about freedom and investments and people are adults, and they make their own decisions and If hedge funds did play any role in getting trading restricted on people on the Robin Hood flat. So act The short sellers were on these stocks. I do think that that needs to be looked into existence dead wrong and no question about it. And look, you don't know this about me. But I spent 25 years and the securities lending business. That's what my background is. So I know basically every short seller on the street. And these shorts. I'm they tend to lay on stocks for no reason. Just because they think they're weak on guy found it as a free market capitalist. I found it disgusting to see. I've never seen a brokerage firm say you cannot buy a stock. And it made me start thinking. Well, Who are these regulators really captured by? It's not Robin. Hood sells all their order flow to sit it down and virtue. So is it sitting down virtual who are really telling the regulators what to do? It looks It looks pretty bad on the surface. I really hope there wasn't collusion between the hedge funds and Robin Hood because we need is much freedom was possible in the markets and the little guy quote unquote. Was Everything. That's that's his or her choice. That's the way the market's workers you should be able to get in there and do what you want. Not cash judgment or wag your finger at people like that. The actual the little guy retail investors in a lot more right about the market the last five or security. These. It's official. Hedge funds and hedge funds have trailed the market just horribly the last decade or more. Stand how anybody except someone who doesn't want bull market exposure uses them with the high fees and the tax inefficiency and then the bad performance. So about three years ago, Maxine Waters And the House Financial Services Committee had a big hearing with the heads of all the banks. J. P. Morgan Morgan Stanley Got away these banks. She had them all in there. We're talking about college lending and predatory college loans and stuff. And Maxine Waters. The head of this committee asks Brian Moynihan from bank America. Well, let me ask you. What have you done about predatory college lending? And he said, Well, ma'am, we've exited the college lending bit. And then she went to the guy from Wachovia. And she said, Well, what are you doing? He said, Well, we exited that business two years ago, and I'm sitting there thinking shouldn't the head of the Financial Services Committee Have someone check out these people before they come on before she asked him what they're doing about student lending. She should know they're not even in the business anymore. So what is it really Vladimir in front of the in front of the committee. She doesn't know anything. It's laughable it and I don't remember those hearings. You're mentioning very, very well and out Ignorant and N F. Those hearings were because they didn't know what they're talking about. The other thing that's in after that. Work left controlling Congress right now, hoping that changes in the hat Is that the trying to get all student loans forgiven, which would be about a $1.6 trillion hit me on the U. S taxpayer, And the reality is there's been a lot of most of the most of people have been borrowed money that financed there. University education, graduate level education on upper middle class or affluent people and And took him onto pursuit. Very glitchy degrees to lead the high paying salary, So it's not like you're helping The downtrodden nor the lower class or people are really struggling or suffering into sight. You're given a sock away to millennial emergency voters. They're pretty affluent, so it's pretty disgusting. The whole thing Hey, George. A lot of What negative interest rates are because, like me, and you do, um, weren't and error right now, where banks need so much money on reserve that they actually People have to pay them to leave their money in the bank. It's the weirdest thing ever. Right? So now you have negative interest rates were banks up. People toe believe money with him, and at the same time the deficits just keep piling up. Is the next Armageddon. The U. S dollar Well, there's a lot of really smart people this year place. It's a pretty heavy bets. Stanley Druckenmiller comes to mind immediately on basically a weaker dollar in rampant Interest rates, and we really are living in a period where Indian team modern monetary theory was laughed at. It is recently in a year and a half two years ago. And what kind of living through it right now, the stimulus payments during repent, then they are almost like the universal. Basic income dream of the Democrats come through already. Mm. The energy this this money, printing and reckless running a federal deficits and increasing the federal debt works until it doesn't And if you do the math If interest rates on Treasuries go from, you know, roughly on average 1 to 1.5%. Right now it's little is 4%, which is historically still pretty low. Over a trillion dollars in in government spending just to service our debt, and that's not sustainable. That's higher than the Department of Defense budget. And it's about 30 to 40% of the overall federal spending, so It doesn't matter until it does, And I'm very, very concerned. It's gonna matter. Syrian people think Bardo. It is the big magic printing press in sky. Most people don't realize there is no real printing press. This is just all you know digital dollars made out of the air and we keep printing them. Um and all of that does is devalued. The dollar was seen inflation and building material see inflation on a lot of We keep killing the dollar. Joe Biden seems to be starting off two trillion in his first month, so I think it could be worse. And if you're watching at home, you may need a great adviser like George say from Annandale Capital. A George, Thanks so much for joining us today really appreciate your insight. Here. Thank you, Brother. Appreciate very much grateful beyond happy to have you, George say from Annandale Capital. Um, and you know, I keep talking about it. A lot of people who tune in every day talking about the magic printing press in this guy. If you ask me, there's a reason. Bitcoin has gone from $20. 45,000 in the last month. It's because the markets and black rock and L, a musk and some of the smartest people in the world of realizing that the value of the dollar is going down. And when.
Biz Talk Radio
"stanley druckenmiller" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio
"On out there. Dow. Just middling around today. Nothing crazy down 24 a couple of weeks ago On Friday, the Dow closed at 29,000. And I thought 30 was the bottom of the support. Um, under 20. Cataclysmic results on Monday. Luckily, Joe Biden called in 10 Republicans, Mr Market started thinking, all right. Maybe they'll come to a stimulus plan, which they did $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Bernie Sanders is not happy with it some others and not happy with it, but the market overall is held at bay by more. A little later on, but Robin Hood in and short sellers and who squeezed them and what what happened to break that down and more. I'm joined Joined right now by George say he's with Annandale Capital, and George Robin Hood is the hot, new shiny object. Pretty big for the last few years, But now they're going to be dragon Vlad in front of Maxine Waters. What do you think will happen from this? Well. Any time Congress starts meddling in the financial markets and less toe, punish people engaged in fraud or embezzlement or other really bad behavior. I get quick. They don't know anything about the markets. They don't understand them. They don't know how to ask questions about him. So I'm a little dubious on this. But Robin Hood in this fax and Stocks like Zuma ball given credibility. We're kind of reliving the late nineties again now whether this goes on another two or three years or in soon, Who knows? But Robin, it's a great Like even if people cast dispersion on retail investors and say they're just gambling, and they're gonna lose a lot of money doing stuff like game stopped, and I am seeing other things like that. I'm all about freedom and investments and people are adults, and they make their own decisions and If hedge funds did play any role in getting trading restricted on people on the Robin Hood black So act The short sellers were on these stocks. I do think that that needs to be looked into existence dead wrong and no question about it. And look, you don't know this about me. But I spent 25 years and the securities lending business. That's what my background is. So I know basically every short seller on the street. And these shorts. I'm they tend to lay on stocks for no reason. Just because they think they're weak on guy found it as a free market capitalist. I found it disgusting to see. I've never seen a brokerage firm say you cannot buy a stock. On Git made me start thinking. Well, Who are these regulators really captured by? It's not Robin. Who'd sells all their order flow to sit it down and virtue. So is it sitting down virtual who are really telling the regulators what to do? It looks It looks pretty bad on the surface. I really hope there wasn't collusion between the hedge funds and Robin Hood because we need is much freedom was possible in the markets and the little guy quote unquote. Was Gambling. That's that's his or her choice. That's the way the market's workers you should be able to get in there and do what you want. Not cash judgment or wag your finger at people like that. The actual the little guy retail investors in a lot more right about the market the last five or security. He's it's official heads. Those that has tons of travel market just horribly the last decade or more. Stand, how anybody except someone he doesn't want full market exposure uses them with the high fees and the tax inefficiency and then the bad performance. So about three years ago, Maxine Waters and the House Financial Services Committee had a big hearing with the heads of all the banks. J. P. Morgan Morgan Stanley. Go away These banks. She had them all in there. We're talking about college lending and predatory college loans and stuff. And Maxine Waters. The head of this committee asked Brian Moynihan from Bank America. Well, let me ask you. What have you done about predatory college lending? And he said, Well, ma'am, we've exited the college lending bit. And then she went to the guy from Wachovia. And she said, Well, what are you doing? He said while we exited that business two years ago, and I'm sitting there thinking shouldn't the head of the Financial Services Committee Have someone check out these people before they come on before she asked him what they're doing about student lending. She should know they're not even in the business anymore. So what is it really Vladimir in front of the in front of the committee. She doesn't know anything. It's laughable it and I remember those hearings. Your mission Ng very, very well and out ignorant and in at those hearings were because they didn't know what they're talking about. The other thing that's in after that. Work left controlling Congress right now, hoping that changes in the hat Is that the trying to get all student loans forgiven, which would be about a $1.6 trillion hit me on the U. S taxpayer And the reality is is that a lot of most of the most of people have been borrowed money that financed there. University education, graduate level education on upper middle class or affluent people who And took him on to pursue very glitchy grace the lead the high paying salary, so it's not like you're helping think that downtrodden nor the lower class or people are really struggling or suffering in society. You're given a sock away to millennial agency voters. They're pretty affluent. So it's pretty disgusting. The whole thing. Hey, George, a lot of What negative interest rates are because, like me, and you do weren and error right now, where banks need so much money on reserve that they actually People have to pay them to leave their money in the bank. It's the weirdest thing ever. Right, so now you have negative interest rates with banks up. Some people toe believe money with him. And at the same time the deficits just keep piling up is the next Armageddon. The U. S dollar Well, there's a lot of really smart people this year place. It's a pretty heavy bad Stanley Druckenmiller comes to mind immediately on basically a weaker dollar in rampant Interest rates, and we really are living in a period where Indian team modern monetary theory was laughing as recently as a year and a half two years ago, and what kind of living through it right now, the stimulus payments during repent, then make her almost like the universal. Basic income dream of the Democrats come through already. Yeah. The MMT this this money, printing and reckless running a federal deficits and increasing the federal debt works until it doesn't And if you do the math If interest rates on Treasuries go from, you know, roughly on average 1 1.5% right now, if it's little is 4%, which is historically still pretty low. Over a trillion dollars in in government spending just to service our debt, and that's unsustainable. That's higher than the Department of Defense budget, and it's about a third to 40% of the overall federal spending. So It doesn't matter until it does, And I'm very, very concerned. It's gonna matter. Syrian people think Part of it is the big magic printing press in the sky. Most people don't realize there is no real printing press. This is just all you know digital dollars made out of the air and we keep printing them. Um and all of that does is devalued. The dollar was seen inflation in building material see inflation on a lot of We keep killing the dollar. Joe Biden seems to be starting off two trillion in his first month, so I think it could be worse. And if you're watching at home, you may need a great adviser like George say, from Annandale Capital. George, Thanks so much for joining us today really appreciate your insight. Here. Thank you, Brother. Appreciate very much great to be on happy to have you, George say from Annandale Capital..
Bloomberg Markets
Bitcoin jumps to all-time high as enthusiasm for crypto grows
"That. Let's switch gears to another big security. That sister moving an asset that's been moving in. That is our good friends at Bitcoin of looking at it right here, 19,000. 315. It had touched intraday high 20,000 just recently, little bit little bit of a pullback here, but it's just had a just an extraordinary run here since September since March, Anyway, you look at it. The graft just looks amazing. Mike McGlone. He actually understands what's going on here. I admit, I really don't. That's why I turned to Michael. We have big days like this Michael Clone. Commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Mike again the graph I'm looking at here, the trailing 12 months graft just extraordinary. Here. Just this last run since they let's say, September we were down to 10,000. And here we are pushing 20,000. What's the driver here? Yes, Paul certainly shows good charts. What's really happened? I think in the last few months is the markets come around to this is the virus isn't going away, and it's becoming part of institutional portfolios. Michael Strategy making mate made a major Alka Kate allocation squares involved. We have people that stand Stanley Druckenmiller and Mexican billionaires. Key point is well, it's a key point is, you know I look at the Mexican peso is it's dropped 50% versus it down in the last 10 years, so people need to diversify their their holdings wealth on it on a global basis. So from American standpoint, Yeah, you know for us, you know, money is kind of like water is to a fish. But for the rest of the world, Bitcoin is somewhat of a savior. It saves people from currency to basement. And then we have the shorter term. You know, the indicator that Papal really brought it to the masses in this country. I I just tried it out to just buy a small like $100 worth. It was so easy and so cost effective. I was shocked. So about this going is it because central banks have started taking it seriously now that these big investors will finally jump in? Well, that's that's part of the unique part of it. The supply is very limited and demand it actually increases with higher prices. So right now it's total market cap is about 357 billion. That's not big enough for central banks and for a lot of large entities. But asset increases it moves into that space. That's the unique thing about its long as it's not, too of Noxon Dent's orderly, the bigger it gets more likely central banks can hold it. There's one key central bank on the planet that's probably allocating big kind of writing. That's
Squawk Pod
Unpacking Palantirs Public Debut: CEO Alex Karp
"This is squawk pod I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer today on our podcast. unpacking Pailin, tear the high profile highly secretive software company has operated quietly for seventeen years and it's finally on the public markets. And -ticipant I I think for maybe the past ten years CEO Elon on why it it took. So long my lawyers will shoot me what I can tell you is we are very very focused on building software a longtime before other people building and how he expects to become profitable with a small, but mighty and mighty controversial of customers. Well, how can you have the Super Valuable Company? They're only a hundred and twenty-five customers to which I respond. Yeah. But one, hundred, twenty, five most. Interesting institutions in the world I would ask people who are watching this to make a list of the institutions they admire in the world, and then roughly figure out if they're using pounder that interview plus the politics behind listing journalist Joanne Lipman fits a company that is very, very closely aligned with the trump administration. There's a huge question here about what happens if trump does not win the presidency it's Thursday October first October twenty twenty the year is still twenty twenty squawk pot begins right now. Good morning and welcome the squawk box right here on CNBC. I'm Andrew Ross Sorkin along with Joe Kernan Becky off today. Today on the PODCAST volunteer goes public analytics company that is usually described as secretive debuted yesterday the direct listening selling new shares on the New York Stock Exchange covered live on CNBC how tears for trading why secretive well here is named after magical orb and Lord of the Rings. But in seventeen year history, it hadn't made much public volunteer received early funding from the venture arm of the CIA and provide software products designed to crunch numbers. One of these programs is called Gotham and it's for government clients. Who Need to organize an understand massive amounts of data. So surveillance predictive policing, possibly rooting out potential terrorism threats, Pailin tear works with US Army Navy Department of Homeland Security and it's working with health and human services to help track the spread of Corona virus case data that we just recorded. We can immediately narrow into emerging hotspot counties, notable backers of talent tear include investor, and Co founder Peter Thiel who has gotten attention for his conservative politics and support of president trump in the two thousand, sixteen campaign. Evening. I'm Peter Thiel I'm not a politician, but neither is donald trump as well as his work technology companies. He was facebook's first big investor other pollen tear backers include wall streeters like Hanlon and Stanley Druckenmiller when talent tear filed paperwork with the SEC to pursue publising listing earlier this year it's called the swan event is finally got a sense of the books turns out pollen tear had never turned a profit and. A, huge chunk of its revenue came from its three biggest clients which are anonymous in the first six months of twenty twenty. It's revenue of nearly half a billion dollars a big jump from the year before this was addressed by pollen tear CEO, Alex Carp investor roadshow, which true to carbs personality, and true to the weirdness of twenty twenty was virtual and started on cross country skis. Welcome to Powell, tears investor day. We're very proud to have you here. Carp is an Orthodox for a CEO. He has amazing curly hair. He uses the modifier super allot super cool and speaking to potential investors. He made the pitch for the importance of Pailin tears purpose. This way of looking at the world war literally savior situation and in many cases Save Your Life Allen to has moved beyond. Just government clients fifty-three percent of its customers are in the private sector big name businesses who use a software program called foundry include Airbus Merck Ferrari and United Airlines but it's work for governments here and others around the world stuck to its reputation allentown faced criticism from privacy groups and for its work with the US Customs and border. Patrol. Tracking immigrants at the border. But Carp in the company not backed off in. That s one filing the leader of this highly valuable tech uniform said, Pailin tears work is different in his view software missions to keep safe may have become controversial but companies built on advertising dollars are commonplace and carp took aim at big tech culture directly writing quote our company was founded in Silicon Valley. But we seem to share fewer and fewer of the technology sectors, values and commitments. Helen tear moved its corporate headquarters to Denver and its shares headed to Wall Street. If you think, we are going to change our internal culture drastically if you think we're going to work with regimes that are not allied with the US enter abusing human rights if you think. that. That the future is going to be a super rosie place where the past ways of supplying software are going to work because enterprises and governments do not need to be reformed you should not invest in pounder. Andrew. Ross Sorkin has interviewed Alex Carpet number of times. This conversation was reported Wednesday yesterday right after the first trade for here on the New York. Stock Exchange. We've had lots of conversations over the years. This has been probably one of the most highly anticipated offerings or listings in a very long time. Almost every year that we would talk in Davos I would invariably ask you are you going to go public? Are you gonNA list and invariably you wouldn't. So let's start with why now? Well, first of all, thank you for having me and I and I really would like to thank all the pound tyrians who stuck with us and built this company and our investors you're stuck with us and you know over the years we've been skeptical about listing and for lots of reasons, we really needed to build our products. With enough protection so that we would be ready to launch them into the public space. And we built we built out PG government and foundry product and and built a way to maintain them so that we wouldn't have to scale the number of people and. You know we've reached a base where where our company's very significant and we believe being in the public space will help us with our clients and help us grow and quite frankly I believe the people apparently who built this company over seventeen years. Deserved a access to liquidity. So we we decided this would be great time for us and so far. It's been a really interesting process and and our clients are embracing it. So it's a really good time for us and I'm very, very grateful. Outlets. The single biggest question that investors ask about this company is seventeen years in while you know may have an operating profit, the company unto itself is still not profitable. So so walk us through what the path to profitability looks like. Well, you know we build these products years before people build them, and that takes money and what you see in the cove it pandemic crisis is we had built this way of going to market with foundry, which would allow us to literally supply an enterprise with a completely new stack of products within six hours and maintain them. And what you saw when we did that is we grew the company forty, nine, percent, forty, nine percent off of a seven, forty, three base and the divergence between expenses and in growth is dramatic. And we're just going to be very very focused on on an invigorating, our software offering. But when you're growing forty-nine percent off of a seven forty base. I think that's a pretty strong indication of what the future could hold and we're super proud of that and I think you're seeing that people are taking a look at our financials and our our company is often been used viewed as complex and. Needing explanation both moral and financial but it turns out our financials are quite simple and you look at this dramatic growth with flat lining expenses and I think that gives investors comfort and it certainly makes me feel as. Co Founder and CEO that we made the right decision to invest heavily over well over a decade in building software, the way other people don't to build it and you see the results do you think the profitability is at twenty twenty, two, proposition twenty, twenty, three proposition can I put you on that? Well, you you can push me but of course, my lawyers will shoot me I can tell you what I can tell you is we are very very focused on building software a time before other people building, supplying it and I think that are year I. First Half of the year growth will be reflective of the future and if I'm right. That will answer all of your interesting questions and we'll be interviewing. You'll be interviewing me again maybe not a Davos but virtually, and we'll see how we do. Confident confident we'll do well. Alex, one of the other questions people ask is how to comp your company meaning what are the comparable should this be considered a technology company as SAS company or should this could be considered a much more traditional consulting company? Can you speak to that? Well I think what the investors are seeing is they're asking the question at this point they used to ask is this is this a company that built software for the government and how do they build it? Of course we always sold this as a license. Then they saw our margins of the first half of the year round eighty percent. So I think the real debate now is. Move significantly away from is this software services because although people think we're very smart, we're not smart enough to get eighty percent margins off of a services company. The question then is, how do you comp it and honestly I think that's something investors will have to figure out. We're not focused on that we're focused on we are going to be the most important software company in the world. And people will figure out what valued over a long period of time and we're very comfortable with investors toying around it could be like this. It could be like that. We are going to deliver the best software. With the morals most efficient way of delivering it investors will decide what's that. What's that were is worth to them and I think you'll find a number of years that will be a consensus. Palette. Here is a truly special software company that is arguably the most important software company in the world. Alex has everybody knows You have contracts with various government agencies, obviously and some of the bluest of the blue chip companies in America today, but it's a concentrated list of about one hundred and twenty-five companies. About Twenty eight percent of the revenue actually comes from three of those clients unto themselves. Two thirds of the revenue comes from the top twenty. How much of a risk does that pose on one side but also when you think about the opportunity on the other, if we're having a conversation like this in in twelve or twenty, four months, how much do you want that list to increase in size or do you just want to keep that group effectively and a effectively raise the margin or cost for those clients? And grow that business. Well, we want to do all the we're going to do all of the above. So interesting about our client list people people ask, well, how can you have the super? Valuable Company they're only one hundred and twenty-five customers to which I respond but one hundred and twenty-five most interesting institutions in the world. These aren't just any institutions. The literally, I would ask people who are watching this to make. A list of the institutions they admire in the world and then roughly figure out if they're using, we don't go out and advertise our product, but I would say the list of our clients is the single most impressive institutions in the world I've ever seen we. So we want to keep these clients. Also investors will of noticing in the one that well over ninety percent of our growth in the first half of the. Year came from our existing clients. What does that mean our existing clients? The most important clients in the world are really happy that's what it means. So of course, we're going to expand those really happy clients who happen to be the coolest people on the planet, and then we've built this product which has gotten very little attention called Apollo Apollo allows us to maintain and deliver software to any number of clients with essentially. Not growing our our force apparent and force at all. So we're planning now that we have Apollo to grow the number of super cool customers all over the world, and we can do it without raising our headcount, and so what you're going to see is we're going to continue building with our clients why they're the most interesting clients in the world and they clearly based on our numbers like us and some of us. We are going to expand our client base. Why? Because now with Apollo, we can deliver the whole stack in six hours. I don't think any other company I've ever seen in the world can do that, and we can do with efficiencies that I don't know any other companies going to do because we can do this with a small number of people sitting in our office that we have maintaining, updating and providing them with new products we built. So they don't have the Frankenstein monster that takes two years to build and has to be maintained with either human hours like in the government contracting case or by purchasing new product or compensating sales people or behind. It people you don't even talking to you can actually buy one stack. So we are going to increase revenue with current customers, get new customers and continue our march. Alex how easier heart is because I know you've talked about trying to keep things in in terms of the platform if you will how he's your heart it for four clients to leave in terms of the churn. Well, as I mentioned, ninety, five percent of our revenue comes from existing customers. So customers, obviously if a customer wants to leave they, can I think the main reason our customers stay besides the fact that the output is very significant as they look at this product, we supply foundry the average customers paying less than six million dollars and they compare it to buying twenty products paying ongoing licensing. Fees. You can't get out of or building something over years, and the last thing they compare it to is we're not delivering a roadmap. Most people are living roadmap of what are you going to get in a year we're delivering a product after six hours so customers can leave. But what you see in the numbers is they by and large don't, and it's not because of my charming personality. Alex well, let me ask you a different question. We've had lots of fascinating geopolitical and philosophical questions about the role of technology and Pailin tear itself as well as the approaches silicon valley has taken. I'm curious in terms of risks how you think about this Amnesty International as you know, criticized, the company recently for its role of working with ice. How much of that does that pose a risk to the larger business? Especially, the corporate business at a time when we have corporations at taking both political positions and also being oftentimes being socially at activist. To Your Business Well, look the fact that we take positions that are sometimes controversial can cost. US clients. But it also gets us. Clients because when we talked to a client and we say look we're going to work with you. We're not gonNA walk away just because the winds change and this is super important especially to our government clients if you're supplying special forces and army and the US, those clients have to know that they will not be left on the battlefield. Because a because Silicon Valley has decided they don't like the warfighter. So of course that costs revenue many of our decisions of cost US revenue we only work in certain countries we've walked away from work because if human rights issues we've said, we disagree with very prominent human rights organizations and we engage in dialogue but also by the way is a reason why I Think people who are watching this may consider investing or not investing. We are not going to stand up here and say we're for everybody we're not going to pretend, and by the way we're going to try avoid jargon. We will actually tell you what we think it's not going to be created by fifty media people it may have to be carried by a couple. Of Lawyers but one of the unique things about power tears, we actually say things and we actually stick to them and that's something not everyone likes but many of our customers do and by the way I think it is a reason why ninety five percent of our revenue comes from customers because when we tell them, we're going to deliver we are going to deliver. Alex. One of the other questions now you all republic company. But as you know, you have three tiers of stock classes of shares that is and to some degree there have been critics who said, this is effectively a private company masquerading as a public company. Can you speak to the decision to structure the shares the way that they are structured and how governance experts and folks should think about that I think it's important for government experts to look and make an deliver opinion but I would also ask them to consider the environment we live in pound tear has been in silicon valley up till recently for seventeen years and in silicon. Valley. Defending the. warfighter providing our troops with technology that allowed them to come home is very controversial. I do not believe a company like ours that makes really consequential decisions for government clients and non-government clients could be run without an F. share structure and I understand there's criticisms investors look and say, well, why should talent you're having F. structure? What is my? What is my what? What can I do if? I don't agree with them. The primary reason why we fought for an structure and we asked investors to buy into it was we need to be able to go to our especially our Intel and defense clients and say, we will not just blow with the wind. And does shares for a company like ours gives us a unique ability to have long-term commitments to the most important clients in the world, both commercial and government, and that's why I believe they're super important, and I also again would encourage people if that's not something you're comfortable with there are many shares to buy. We don't have to buy challenge your shares. You should buy shares knowing that these shares reflect our views. Alex we've often had these conversations in Davos where globalization has ruled the roost but as you know so well, the world seems to be shifting to a globalized world, a splinter net if you will. How do you think long term that will affect the business of here We made this decision, which is actually a secret only because no one believes it's true which is that we didn't solve the problem of fighting terrorism. We solve the problem of doing data protection and fighting terrorism, and the architecture we built both PG and for foundry will allow a super set to work with subsets, which means if the world's splinters and every country has its own jurisdictions, it's GonNa be very hard for normal software companies because they're not built to do that but it's going to be very good for Palette here and finally Alex. Decision five years from now today. How would you measure success? Here, what would be the metrics which measure it? We know they're there obviously financial metrics but I'll tell you Powell cheer has recruited and retained I believe the most interesting most talented most ethical people I've ever met and we work I've interacted with thousands of institutions and in five years when meet I think he'll say to me. Wow, that wasn't just you saying that because it was the right thing to say it's actually true. And the products that will build over that period we'll we'll. We'll be unique and they will tilt the course of history. In favor of things that are good and noble. And will not avoid the complexity that's necessary to do that outlets. Carpool. You lots of luck and we do look forward to having that conversation hopefully in five years. But hopefully sooner than that. Thanks so much Alex.
Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe
Prospect of V-shaped recovery in the US is fantasy - Stanley Druckenmiller
"We've meanwhile got something billionaire of a special hedge fund today managers looking stand to at Camilla UK said that the tourism prospect and of also a V. European shaped recovery tourism in is the one US of the key sectors is will a check fantasy that does and that need the risk to get reward back calculations on its feet equities somehow is the worst if that he's we seen to get economic in his recovery lifetime across Europe more doubtful I'm Michael provokes the health secretary most males here Matt Hancock speaking saying that during actually a webcast for the moment held foreign by the economic holidays club really of New York hope Druckenmiller shin for said Brits stimulus programs so that's aren't not really building gonna help future in that sector growth yeah but I rather was crying address into giveaways a bit to companies of and business as a owners result of that his remarks in are the among meantime the strongest I let comments me yet take by you Wall to Street the market heavy weight said this morning on the bleak look it's outlook really facing risk off U. S. sentiment investors encrypted economic yesterday but damage is that has spurred the federal also reserve Tuesday to unveil a raft of either emergency the total lending body programs has changed a point and Congress to talk to about unleash his comments almost three trillion I will dollars give you in
Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe
Two-year Treasury yields stage biggest five-day drop since 2008
"But it's really in the bull markets that it's been in a so incredible treasury yields now fooling at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis. Yeah. Although on their way back up a little bit of a balanced in treasury yield right now, two point one zero percent and the tens are paying out, more than the twos, by decent amount right now as the two year price really rallied. So at least you don't see twos, tens, inversion this morning that could be on the cards. Of course, we heard from a number investors, including. Including Stanley Druckenmiller, who says that he thinks the feds can cut to zero by a year and a half from now. Dave financial markets, of course, now discounting at least two quarter-point fed interest rate cuts by the end of the let me just give you a couple of numbers and Asia-Pacific down a tenth of one percent, Shanghai say we can nine tenths of one percents that job drops really across Asia, but not as significant perhaps, as that big FANG, stoke decline. The all BA decision. The first rate cut since two thousand sixteen it was widely expected actually Ozzy Hsieh's. Not really that much the Donna fluctuating just a little bit of sports, sixty nine for the dollar down a tenth of one percent. But crude is the other big stories and say holding onto losses will all down almost twenty percent from the peak in late April, and we've got another half a percent drop for brantford this morning and down three tenths of one percent to fifty three dollars. Sports zero six this morning. So those are the markets for you every fifth. Fifteen minutes by