21 Burst results for "St. Louis Fed"
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 15:00 09-21-2023 15:00
"The United States Border Patrol has exciting and rewarding career opportunities with the nation's largest law enforcement organization. Border Patrol agents enjoy great pay, outstanding federal benefits, and up to $20 ,000 in recruitment incentives. If you are looking for a way to serve something greater than yourself, consider the U .S. Border Patrol. Learn more online at cbp .gov slash careers slash USBP. That's cbp .gov slash careers slash USBP. Bloomberg Business Week with Carole Masur and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. Look out for that music. That was kind of fun. Joe and Kaylee having fun. Kaylee like bopping it. Yeah, that was cool. It's a great show. You've got to listen to that show. Party on, man. We're going to party on for the next three hours, in fact. Oh, if you're not like along this market, you can party. Hey, where there's a long there might be a short. Okay. Got to remember, right? Welcome, everybody. Bloomberg Business Week on this Thursday, September 21st, 2023. Live in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio on YouTube and, of course, on Bloomberg Originals. Twenty -four hours, Tim, since that last Fed decision. S &P at its lowest level since June in three months. We're going to talk a lot about the trade today. And yes, equities, but it's really because of what's going on in terms of the inflation picture and really the interest rate picture. Yeah, with that in mind, a lot of focus on the Fed and the rate picture today, including what former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard says the Fed may still need to do. Is that does that have something to do with today's moves, Carol? I don't know. I just I woke up to that news.
Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
Monitor Show 14:00 09-20-2023 14:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. Trend cruising speed. We'll get the forecast from the Federal Reserve in about 20 seconds time alongside that Fed decision. Going into it, the price action looks like this on the S &P 500, positive by 0 .2%. On the NASDAQ, almost totally unchanged. To the bond market, yields on a two -year, shaping up as follows, near, in and around 5 % on a two -year in America, 5 .05%. Mike McKee has the decision. This is the very definition of a unanimous hawkish pause. The Fed leaves rates today in the range of five and a quarter to five and a half percent while saying growth is solid and inflation elevated, so hire for longer. Policymakers leave another rate move on the table for this year and take two reductions off the table for the next two years. The statement once again discusses, quote, the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate. And the dot plot shows that 12 members of the Open Market Committee still believes they will raise rates by another 25 basis points this year. The high dot at six and a quarter percent comes out of the dot plot with St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard's retirement. For 2024, the committee now sees a median effective Fed funds rate of 5 .1%, up 50 basis points from their June projection. And for 2025, 3 .9%, up from 3 .4 % in June. The long -run neutral rate is unchanged at two and a half percent, although the central tendency range moves up to 3 .3 % from 2 .8, and the dots show seven members think that the neutral is higher than two and a half.
The Decrypt Daily: Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News Podcast
"st. louis fed" Discussed on The Decrypt Daily: Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency News Podcast
"Just couldn't take the winter. I didn't have to leave. This for me is heaven. Heaven and Ohio, Ohio heaven. I guess that's something. Anyway, something that's on my radar is the fed. The St. Louis Federal Reserve president told CNBC the other day that they're pushing for 50 basis points when they're going to raise rates next time. That's going to be up from the 25 basis points from last time. And the reason is because they're seeing signs of even greater inflation. Which is. It's a double edged sword. This is what's happening. You raise rates, you cause recession, a recession air quotes a lot of people say that we've been in recession already, but you cause a recession. And that means that people are going to have less money, lose their jobs, we're going to have financial burdens across the board, it's going to hurt. It's going to hurt our economy. It's going to hurt the mom and pops me and you, especially the middle class, the working class. But if you don't, raise rates. Even if you start dropping rates, inflation goes up. So you're basically hurting the middle class again, paying more for eggs and and gas and heating, electric. Everything goes up. So, what do you do? Anyway, we're going to see what the fed does, but the fed is pushing. The St. Louis fed president is pushing for 50 basis points and be aggressive through 2025. Today's show, real quick, we're going to go into crypto prices. We're going to talk about daily news and I can't wait to tell you about the crypto prices today. We have a lot of Ethereum news, so let's get straight into
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Good morning, I'm Doug prisoner at the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York. Let's get a taste of what is happening in markets Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. What do you see? Doug, we're seeing some selling pressure today in the equity market for sure. Also in the bond market earlier a surge in treasury yields in the U.S. rattled Wall Street, the Dow fell 2.1% wiping out all of this year's gains. That's one through some of the other numbers. The NASDAQ was down the most down two and a half percent. And the S&P 500 traded down exactly 2% for the session, equity futures are lower and the cash markets in Asia are down as well. Most prominently in Seoul, the cost down 1.1% drop of 26 points, the nikkei off 7 tenths of a percent similar losses seen in Sydney. So the two year yields hitting the highest since 2007, they matched the previous 52 week high of 4.72%. We had a bounce in ten year yields as well up to 3.95% here currently. The high for the last year has been four 24. So moving in that direction, every group in the S&P 500 fell and more than 90% of the shares were down for the session. So it seems the stock market has gotten the message. The fed is nowhere near the end of its hiking cycle and they will stay tough and they will battle on until inflation is crushed and it seems that equity and bond investors both getting the message there because both got hit pretty hard today. Doug back to you. Yeah, markets have really ramped up the bed for more rate hikes, maybe another 75 basis points in tightening between now and June. That takes us neatly to minutes from the last fed meeting. They will be released tomorrow. We have a Bloomberg preview from our Michael McKee. The surprise is gone now that the presidents of the Cleveland and St. Louis fed banks have said they saw a case for a half percentage point increase at the February 1st meeting. If there were a significant number of others who felt the same way, that could influence views of the fed's next move, given the strong data we've seen since then. Moreover, at his post meeting news conference, fed chair Jay Powell teased a discussion on the path forward for rates that we'd learn about when the minutes were released. What might have been said about how high rates will need to go, how fast, and for how long. A lot of that will depend on how fed officials felt about the prospects for inflation, another discussion to watch in the minutes. Michael McKay Bloomberg daybreak Asia onto the big retailers Walmart with a sales and profit both coming in above expectations for the last quarter. Shoppers appeared to be flocking to those stores during the holiday season to take advantage of Walmart's low prices even so here's where it gets interesting. Walmart warned of tougher times ahead the company is forecasting a second straight decline in annual profit. Here is the company's chief financial officer John David Rainey. You're seeing that our value proposition is certainly resonating with consumers right now. But there's a lot of macro uncertainty. Again, as we, as we look across the consumers across the globe, but certainly here in the U.S., balance sheets are getting thinner, you're seeing savings rates decline. And we really haven't been in a position where we've seen the fed tighten at this rate. And so as we look forward and give guidance for the full year, we're adopting a cautious outlook and we want to make sure that we're responsive to whatever environment that we're going to find ourselves at. That is John David rayner. He is the CFO at Walmart. Well, the news wasn't much better for Home Depot, the home improvement retailers now forecasting a decline in profit for the entire year. The company citing uncertainty tied to those higher interest rates get the picture, Home Depot said that could keep Americans from moving and in turn renovating their homes. Well, big tech firms in China appear to be on the verge of a price war. We have that story from Bloomberg's on man. China's Internet and ecommerce firms are beefing up efforts to outdo each other. Media reports suggested JD.com was planning a $1.5 billion subsidy campaign to compete against ping duodo, elsewhere, NetEase and mi hoyo are upping their battle against gaming leader Tencent. As competition rises, concerns over margins grow in equity investors have taken notice. Fell ten to 11% in New York, and Alibaba was down nearly 5%. The selling helped push the NASDAQ golden dragon China index down 2.9%. In Hong Kong, I'm Yvonne Mann, Bloomberg, daybreak Asia. 6 minutes past the hours we update global
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"During that day. Now what do we do? And that's the next big question for masters. Now what did he do with our remaining cash? Tim Colbert on masayoshi saw that founder of SoftBank group. SoftBank's vision fund losses have talked $5 billion now as the startup investors strategy comes a cropper in markets looking for profitable companies. Is it a preview of what's to come for the greater venture capital universe? And later many lawmakers are focused on this and trying to figure out different ways to help parents with these costs. There are all different ways, but it's clear that there's this patchwork system in a city like Washington D.C. that is the most expensive city in the U.S. for child care. The average annual cost for infant care is $24,243 and that is just for one child. As child care calls increase, associated relief in the tax code stays stagnant. Alexis Leon does explains. First, though, to the capital markets directly. This week we saw a massive repricing in the treasury curve, we also heard fed officials begin to voice considering a 50 basis point interest rate increase again. Here's St. Louis fed president Jim bullard. I think we can lock in this disinflationary trend by continuing to have policy rate increases during 2023. Even though the real economy looks like it's going to continue to grow and the labor market broadly across the country looks like it remains strong. And here's Cleveland fed president Loretta master. But this show I'm sure they incoming data have not changed my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5%. And hold it there for some time. Indeed, at our meeting two weeks ago, setting aside what financial market participants participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50 basis point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%. I spoke with Bloomberg chief rates correspondent Garfield Reynolds to gauge bond market reaction to the daily drip of new data and fed speak. So Garfield, since the last fed meeting, the two year bond yields up about 60 basis points, and Marco kalana pointed out that it's the mon market moving towards the fed, but the prevailing sentiment is of exuberance and greed. Do you think that's fair? Well, I think it's a little bit, I mean, as far as the bond market goes, it's definitely received a big shock both from the data itself. There have been upside surprises. And also from the feds willingness to actually deliver on higher rates and the idea that they would hold them there for longer. Now that's something that was flagged by the fed last year even as it was starting to slow the pace of rate hikes. But the bond market was looking past that and assuming that the impact of last year's extreme rate hikes would be such that the fed would be able to soon stop hiking rates and in fact would have to turn towards considering rate cuts. I mean, on the grade side, if that's talking about what's going on in the equities market, where we're seeing some perhaps surprising resilience, especially the NASDAQ is shrugging off like a 60 basis point jump in the two year yield has not done much damage to the NASDAQ at all despite TikTok's famously supposedly being yield sensitive. Now, perhaps part of the reason for that is that the economic data have been so resilient in the face of last year's rate hikes. So we're kind of in a scenario where perhaps equity market to judging that good news for the economy is good news for equities, even as bonds are deciding more traditional set up good news for the economy is bad news for bonds. Yeah, the whole thing is a little bit odd. It feels like there's something that we're missing out on. Anyway, Marco says the market's not just fighting the fed, but it's taunting the fed with crypto and meme stocks and unpopular companies responding best fed communications. So I guess he sees it slightly differently that this is some kind of fake out or something on the part of those that are putting money into these particular stocks. Well, I think there is ultimately a disconnect in the way the bond market is positioning very deeply inverted yield curve and a persistently inverted yield curve. Signaling a lot of concerns about the potential for your major economic slowdown, you've also got even though the bond market has pushed back, its expectations for when the fed will peak and push up the expectations for where it will call a halt to rate hikes. It still sees next year now rather than this year, but next year it's one and a half percentage points of rate cut. That says the bond market sees the recession. Stocks seemingly don't see one. Yeah, I mean, I guess it's the eisemann call of we don't like to change our market narrative or people get very attached to their market narratives and perhaps the bond market maybe has a little bit better of an ability to not be in denial about certain things, but that seems a little bit too deep. Why should the bond market be so much more nuanced and so much more sophisticated than the stock market in some ways? Well, I think it's more they look at different calculations and especially now one of the things that's feeding this is bonds again have yields. So because they have yields, you can buy a bond and still do okay even if those yields in rice either price of bonds go down. That's a reversal of the situation for much of the past decade when yields went down so low that bonds are almost like stocks you had to buy them on the basis of price appreciation, not on the basis of carry. But now they've got yields again. So the calculation for quite a few bond investors is, hey, 3% 4%, four and a half percent depending on the instrument. I can buy that and hang on to it and I'll do okay. Whereas equity investors mostly don't look so much at dividends. They're looking for capital appreciation. So they're looking for the idea that earnings are going to improve and we're seeing to be having mostly a fairly decent earnings season and although there are plenty of dire warnings that are slowdown is coming and that will cause an earnings recession. For now, to some extent, they're almost drawing confidence from the fate of one of us to keep raising rates at a slower pace because that says to them, well, the fed doesn't think the economy is about to collapse because the fed thought the economy was about to collapse. They'd be saying, we're going to stop hiking rates. Yes, exactly. Move to the hold portion of their agenda, assuming that's still on. Fat expectations up to 5.4% now for the terminal rates and there are even places where you see the market looking at the probability of a hike to 6.1 and the chances of a hike to 6% now is .5%. So that's a one in 200 chance or something? Yeah, exactly. And one in 200 chance. So not huge, but nevertheless, it's starting to be there and when anything kind of appears in a market, you really have to take notice. I mean, how quickly can this change again if we get more communication, which is really just constant at this point? Yes, I mean, obviously can change rapidly less than a month ago, the market was mostly expecting that the fed was going to peak under 5%. And that was despite plenty of commentary from the fed that 5% was about the minimum where they thought they would go to and it would only take a couple of data points if inflation had come in weaker than expected just this week. Then you would have had a fairly rapid cooling down in rate expectations at least until unless you then had fed officials pushing back saying yes, this is not we don't really believe this. So it's all on the table and like I said
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Brian shook. And I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. Let's check this hour to stop business stories and the markets. The bank of Korea has raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. The Central Bank lifted its 7 day repurchase rate to 3.5%. The BOK said that two board members oppose the rate decision. The bank of Korea seized continued tightening as warranted. The fed is on track to downshift to smaller rate hikes following a further cooling in U.S. inflation. That's the message in the swamp market swaps show less than 50 basis points of tightening priced in for the next two fed meetings. As to policymakers themselves, Philly fed president Patrick harker says 25 basis point hikes will be appropriate going forward. However, St. Louis fed president Jim bullard said that he favors getting rates above 5% quickly. We spoke earlier with Michael McKee, Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent. One of the things that people sort of missed about harker was that he said we still need to raise rates over 5%. So they're both kind of in the same boat. He and bullard. And I think most of the fed is in the same boat. In the market seems to be not that they won't get to 5%. There's a minor question about whether they do 25 or 50 on February 1st. But whether they are going to be cutting rates later in the year, the fed officials, and this was bullard's message, say the markets are over optimistic about how fast inflation is going to come down. And they won't be cutting rates. That's kind of the debate that we're going to have as we continue to get the data that suggests inflation is improving, but the fed doesn't see it improving enough and quickly enough. Michael, Bloomberg international economics policy correspondent. Well, China's annual trade surplus hit a record high in 2022 in yuan terms. Surging exports through the first half of the year offset a big drop off in demand at worsened. In the final quarter, the surplus widened to ¥5.87 trillion, that's $873 billion last year, exports fell about 0.6% in yuan terms in December, and that compared to a 0.7% increase in November and imports increased about one and a half percent from a year earlier. These numbers are based on Bloomberg calculations. The official numbers not yet out. And finally, from the FT, China is moving to take golden shares in local units of Alibaba and ten cent. Both stocks are trading flat to lower this morning in the markets, the hang seng index is essentially flat. Then you can down 1.2%. The CSI 300 in China, with a solid gain of 8 tenths of 1%. Dollar yen, one 29 O 5. Global news, 24 hours a day, live, and at Bloomberg quick take brought to you by 2700 journalists in a 120 countries. In Hong Kong, I'm Brian Curtis
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Japanese equity market where the nikkei is down 7 tenths of 1%. Some of this may be tied to relative strength in the Japanese currency where the dollar is concerned, the yen right now at one 38 75 against the greenback, given a little bit of dollar weakness at the moment, but what was exactly the opposite during New York trading where the dollar rallied. Now, some of that may have been tied to a lot of uncertainty around these COVID situation in China, which will be unpacking momentarily here on daybreak, Asia. Also a number of fed officials during the U.S. session stressing the need for more rate hikes as a result we had yields rising slightly at the long end of the treasury curve a ten year now at 360 nine, which is about a basis point higher than we were in the New York session. And a higher yields one of the factors that contributing to weakness in the U.S. equity market, although volume stateside was about 20% below the 20 day average and that can exaggerate some of the price movement. We had the major benchmarks in the U.S. each down by roughly one half of 1%, a size shares in the Tokyo session down nearly 10%, the most since July 2021, the company and its U.S. partner Biogen is suffering really on a report of a second death potentially linked to the company's groundbreaking experimental drug for Alzheimer's. If you look at what's happening in the crude oil market right now, WTI is down about a half of 1%. We popped in New York trading on the view that OPEC plus will consider deeper cuts to output given the faltering crude oil market. We'll be talking about the oil space as well as we continue here on daybreak, Asia, Brian. All right, Dan, thanks very much, Doug. Let's get to that fed commentary, which you alluded to. New York fed president John Williams said there is still more work to be done to get inflation down. He thinks interest rates are heading somewhat higher than he had forecast a few months ago. And we also heard comments a few moments ago from Richmond fed president Thomas barkin. Now our foot is off the gas. I think we're now on the break, real rates are positive across the curve. And when you're driving, you have your foot in the brake, you just drive a little more deliberately, maybe you pump the brakes. You just take a little more caution. And so I'm very supportive of a path that is slower, probably longer and potentially higher than where we were before that. Richmond fed president Thomas barkin in an exclusive interview right here on Bloomberg radio and television. In the meantime, St. Louis fed chief Jim bullard said that markets are underpricing the chance of higher rates. He said that the fed should raise rates to at least 5% to meet its goal of being restrictive enough to stamp out inflation. And Cleveland fed chief Loretta master told the Financial Times that the fed was not near a pause in its rate hiking campaign. And by the way, fed officials will be gathering for their final meeting of the year on December 13th. Well, turmoil at Apple's key manufacturing hub of zhengzhou is likely to resolve in an iPhone production shortfall, we're told the deficit will be close to 6 million iPhone pro units. Apple shares were down about 2.6% following the news, and that marked the biggest one day drop in more than two weeks. We heard earlier from Wedbush's Dan Ives. It's been a gut punch in the most important quarter of the most important period for cooking Cupertino, going into holidays. The clock struck midnight, finally apple is seeing what's really the hurt in terms of production in China. We think it could be 6 to 8 million units. And the situation remains fluid at the zhengzhou plant much will depend on how quickly Foxconn can get workers back to assembly lines after violent protests against COVID restrictions. If lockdowns do continue in the weeks ahead, production could be set even further back. Coming up in a few moments we'll be speaking with Katrina L, senior economist at moody's analytics. Time now for global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Hoping for this week, we didn't really get that much out of the market. Which traded without real conviction with the S&P 500 off just 7 tenths of a percent for the week. And the NASDAQ down 1.57%. And the yield on the ten year up about 7 basis points ending the week at 3.82. To help us sort it all out, we welcome now a sunny specialist CEO of rock creek and bob Michael. He's chief investment officer and head of the global fixed income unit at JPMorgan asset management. So welcome both your great to have you back. Bob, let me start with you. I mean, I watched the eco numbers, I listened to the fed speak. I sort of felt like I was going both ways at the same time. What did you see? Well, for a bond investor, all of us who have been battered this year, this is one of the weeks that made sense to us. We had a nice tailwind coming in from the inflation data. It was great all the way through core, when you look at shelter, everything. Yes, the markets went a little crazy. They went wild. And the central bankers did what they're supposed to do. They came in one by one, and reminded us, don't declare victory yet. These are only a couple prints. There are more hikes to come, but maybe there is some optimism. And the market settle down. So I look at this week and I thought, this is the first great week in a long time. So if sun is that the way you saw it as well, and there's still some more rage hikes that come, how many? I think at least another three to start with 50 basis points next time in December, followed by at least two or three, 25 basis points. Next year. And then we'll see from there. And I think what bob said is very true at the same time as we were listening to at least three fat people come and speak, I wrote down, I think they all had very different coats. And you had some of that when le Bernard talks, but you also had the president of St. Louis fed says something slightly different as if, you know, we would start continuing with continue with rate increases for a while longer than she had implied. And then, of course, we had Susan Collins coming with even sort of potential 75 basis points. So we're hearing numbers that are a little bit all over the place and trying to make sense of it. So bob, are the markets making it harder for the fed as a practical matter? They were at the start of the week. I think not so much now. I think we're all in the same spot. We've all got realistic expectations. The fed's headed to four and a half, 5%. They'll get there sometime in the first quarter. We'll see where inflation is. If it's below the fed funds rate, then that gives them some scope to pause on the tightening. We can reevaluate at that point, but right now, bond yields have gone up a long way in a very short period of time. It's time for a breath. Bob, does that get us to a soft landing? Unfortunately, it does not. And I think that's the one consistent message from the fed. Susan Collins aside, which is there is going to be pain for businesses and households. When you have this magnitude of rate hikes in such a short period and you're also withdrawing liquidity through quantitative tightening, it's going to bite. And we're already seeing its biting the economy hard. Thankfully, it's also now starting to bite inflation. Michael of JPMorgan and I'm sorry, specialist Iraqi will be staying
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We've got Japanese equities trading also trading underway now in U.S. sovereign debt. Also underway, action in the South Korean equity market. If you're joining from the Asia Pacific good morning, I'm Doug prisoner at the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York. Stateside in terms of equity action, we struggled a bit in the face of some more hawkish fed speak in particular we heard from the head of the St. Louis fed Jim bullard warning of further financial stress ahead among other things will take a closer look at that momentarily. Now in terms of the eco data, weekly jobless claims figures came in below forecasts and this seems to underscore the strength of the American labor market, so when you consider the fed speak and the data, we had yields moving up right across the treasury curve. But the long end, a move higher by 7 basis points to three 76, we are moving even higher right now, three 78 in the Tokyo session, the move up in rates strengthening the dollar. We have the Bloomberg dollar spot index up four tenths of 1% in New York and we are building on those gains now in the Asian session. Even though the move up in yields was sizable, the decline in U.S. equity somewhat muted. We only had the Dow down today by a tenth of 1%, S&P and the NASDAQ comp each week or by roughly three tenths of 1%, mentioned earlier the rally in Alibaba shares up 7.8% today, even though Alibaba reported mixed results for the second quarter, the company also announced plans to upsize its stock buyback program to around 15 billion and the move in Baba today sending the NASDAQ Holden dragon China index up about 3.7% and curiously on an otherwise down day for stocks. The socks index. That's the Philadelphia semiconductor index was up 1% today we heard from Applied Materials after the bell better than feared sales forecast for the latest quarter and a match shares right now up by more than 3% in the late U.S. session. We'll talk more about some of the particulars for the equity market after we update you on a few of the sours top business stories. I mentioned Jim bullard, the head of the St. Louis fed, basically indicating that the fed should raise its terminal rate to between 5 and 5 and a quarter percent. Here is bullard in his own words. Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rates still isn't at a zone that might be considered sufficiently restrictive. To get to this sufficiently restrictive level of policy, we'll need to increase the policy rate further. Okay, that hawkish tone was basically echoed by the head of the Minneapolis fed Neil cash Kari, he said it's an open question in terms of how far that has to go. The fed has to go with raising interest rates to bring the supply, demand story back into balance. Now, fed officials back in September had predicted they would raise rates to around 4.6% by the end of the year, those projections will be updated at the fed's policy meeting on the 13th of December. We moved to Twitter next and Elon Musk, who apparently has softened his stance just a bit on working in the office earlier, mister Musk said he was strictly against remote work. He told employees they can now get approval if their managers take responsibility for ensuring those employees make an excellent contribution. We are told this change came after only a few workers opted to accept mister Musk's hardcore terms of employment. He had issued a 5 p.m. Eastern Time deadline for employees to formally state whether they would keep working at Twitter. Musk may now be hoping for a softer approach to remote work as a way of convincing those employees to stay. Coming up on 5 minutes past the hours we update global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Party heavyweights lining up to support Rishi sunak in the leadership race. I'm Denise Pellegrini and on WWE in Detroit, I'm reporting on General Motors new drive to get workers back to the office. And those are some of the stories are 2700 Bloomberg journalists and analysts are working on this morning around the world. It's 5 39 on Wall Street. The following is an editorial from Bloomberg opinion. This editorial was written by the Bloomberg editorial board. The Federal Reserve is among the world's most powerful institutions when its policymakers act, they have immense potential to move markets. It should be obvious then that fed officials need to carefully weigh when and where they speak. Apparently, it's not obvious enough. Earlier this month, the president of the St. Louis fed spoke at a private event that Citigroup, a bank overseen by the fed had arranged for a select group of clients. His comments reportedly touched on monetary policy and financial stability topics that could hardly be of greater importance. Fed officials shouldn't be permitted to share their views on monetary policy in a closed forum, let alone one arranged by a for profit enterprise the Central Bank is supposed to be regulating. The Federal Reserve should ensure that no policymaker is giving away what rightly belongs to the public. This editorial was written by the Bloomberg editorial board for more Bloomberg opinion, please go to Bloomberg dot com slash opinion or. Go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg opinion. Bloomberg opinion editorials can be heard every weekday at this time and terminal customers can read more at op IN go
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In the yen here, one 48 70 or thereabouts. We touched nearly touched one 49 in the Friday session stateside. That's a 32 year low, and then on Friday we heard from the Japanese finance minister Suzuki saying that Japan is deeply concerned about the rapidly increasing volatility in the foreign exchange. To be fair, some of that yen weakness was likely precipitated by a rally in the dollar we had the Bloomberg dollar spot index jumping 7 tenths of 1% in the Friday session. That reflects a move up across the US Treasury curve in yield terms a ten year just under 4.02%, two year at just under four 50. The University of Michigan reported year ahead inflation expectations on Friday that kind of spiked in the month of early October. And now we have from the St. Louis fed bank, Jim bullard saying that he is open. The possibility or to the possibility to two supersized interest rate hikes between now and the end of the year, so that would imply 75 basis points in November and another 75 at the December FOMC meeting. If you look at what's been going on in the currency market where the pound is concerned right now, weaker against the dollar by about 6 tenths of 1%, you prime minister Liz truss spent the day Sunday huddling with her new Chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy hunt, after scrapping that economic plan, obviously that triggered a sell off in UK assets. We'll have to see where we go from here. The pound at a buck 1233 right now against the greenback. We'll take another look at market action in about 15
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bat. I'm Scott Carr. And I did his Pellegrini in the Bloomberg newsroom. Investors may be glad for the weekend relief today after stocks plunged currencies while an interest rate spiked across the globe this past week, including yesterday. Liz McCormick is chief correspondent global background markets. I think the doors are all blown off. I mean, look at the UK, the movements are insane. How much yield to rose with the fiscal stimulus, the tax cut. And I think some of these global bond markets, the sovereign ones are bursting, those bubbles are getting popped all over. And McCormick does say, watch for more drama before it's all over. And after the Federal Reserve signaled last week, it's not done raising interest rates yet. We will hear from a slew of fed speakers this coming week, but bricks Nathan hacker is for Nathan. It kicks off Monday with Atlanta fed president Raphael bostic discussing income inequality at a Washington Post event. The heads of the Boston and Cleveland banks also speak Monday at separate events in the Boston area. On Tuesday, the Chicago and St. Louis fed presidents take part in discussions overseas, San Francisco's Mary Daly gives a keynote speech at Boise state university on Thursday, and on Friday, fed vice chair while brainer joins New York president John Williams at a conference on financial stability. All right, thank you, Nathan. And speaking of the fed and inflation watch two months to go before Thanksgiving, and the price of turkey is really going to stuff it to you. Turkey at an all time high, nearly 30% higher than a year ago. Overall inflation and also that terrible burnt flu outbreak to blame for this. And the head of the world's largest movie theater chain. Now joining the call for a four day work week, posting on Twitter, AMC, CEO, Adam aron, says it would happen to also
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The highest level in more than 15 checked at 13 years and right now we've got crude oil back above a $108 a barrel that's WTI in the electronic session Now with a lot of expectation that we're going to see significant tightening on the part of the fed long-term interest rates were up today a ten year treasury in the regular session rising three basis points to 2.85% that's pretty much where we find ourselves now in early trading of U.S. sovereign debt in Tokyo and we have yields in both Australia and New Zealand pushing higher RB NZ governor Adrian orr was saying a short while ago He's expecting more rate hikes in coming quarters and today stateside at the head of the St. Louis fed bank president or St. Louis fed Jim bullard was saying fed policymakers should not rule out hiking rates by 75 basis points at one meeting In Tokyo right now we've got the nikkei up about 7 tenths of 1% the yen very weak here We're trading at a 20 year low now against the greenback at one 27 11 in Seoul the Cosby rising 9 tenths of 1% and in Sydney the ASX 200 ahead by 6 tenths of 1% And if you look at where the dollar is right now a little bit of weakness but the Bloomberg dollar spot index during the New York trading session was up three tenths of 1% More on markets in 15 minutes At Baxter has global news from the Bloomberg newsroom in San Francisco Eddie All right thank you Douglas of Florida peels Josh has struck down the remainder of the travel mask mandate She says the CDC.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Advancing week though healthcare and some of the consumer Staples At the end of the day the three major U.S. measures ended roughly down about a tenth of 1% across the board Long-term interest rates up as well prospects here for faster fed tightening We heard today from St. Louis fed bank president Jim bullard He was saying the fed needs to move quickly to raise the fed funds rate to around three and a half percent this year Now that would include multiple half point hikes and bullard also said the fed shouldn't rule out rate increases of 75 basis points although that's not his base case Ten year treasury last quoted in New York at 2.85% and boy the yen very weak here were at a 20 year low That's going to influence trading in Japan No doubt Brian Yeah absolutely Doug thanks very much Let's get to Twitter Those shares posted their biggest gains in two weeks It came out to the social media company launched a poison pill defense against suitor Elon Musk The new strategy would allow Twitter to issue new stock at a discounted price and all shareholders accept Musk could buy them He was Bloomberg's Ed ludlow The whole point of instituting a poison pill by the board at Twitter which was confirmed in a regulatory filing Monday morning according to a Bloomberg source was the board playing for time Elon Musk keeps criticizing the board on Twitter saying that they're not fulfilling their fiduciary duty by not giving this deal to shareholders But the other side of that coin is that they have a duty to get the best possible deal And we're also hearing that Apollo global management is interested in helping finance a bid for Twitter Sources told us that the company is considering providing Elon Musk or another bidder like toma bravo with equity or debt to support the offer And as mentioned we had Twitter shares up significantly up as much as 7 and a half percent during the regular session We also had ADRs a deity global tumble 18% and closed at the lowest level in a month Bloomberg's verdict a Gupta tells us what prompted that sell off It's not the fact that they're delisting on the New York Stock Exchange investors already know they're going to do that but it's a manner in which they're doing it The fact that they are not going to delist before having a new venue to trade that stock So that's what investors are kind of taken aback by There's a lack of immediate re listing plan in place here Didi is that it will not apply to list on another exchange until the U.S. delisting is completed All right well we'll get to our guest Gary schlossberg in a few moments Gary is global strategist at Wells Fargo investment institute and get his views on the markets All right the time now is just about 5 minutes past the hour It's time for global news A Florida appeals judge has struck down the remainder of the travel.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Asian trading day it seems like we're still kind of digesting this fed week that we've had Doug I think that's absolutely right We're adjusting to this new paradigm of rising rates and the spiking yields is really the consequence of this ultra hawkish commentary that we've had from a number of fed officials and we got more today we'll take a closer look at that momentarily Now in reaction let's focus first on the bond market we had yields on the ten year and 30 year rising to the highest level we've seen since about 2019 a ten year treasury now at 2.65% In the equity market the major benchmarks ended higher after a late day advance we had some computer generated biting that helped out also some dip buyers in the mix Volume though was a little on the light side so that may have exaggerated some of the price action at the end of the day we had the Dow higher by three tenths of 1% roughly The S&P better by about four tenths of 1% the NASDAQ composite holds onto a gain of about a tenth of 1% Importantly the Dow transports snapped a 6 day losing streak over the prior 6 trading days the transports were down about 12% Today a modest increase let's call it three tenths of 1% Now that recent pullback has raised concern about the health of the American economy since the transports can be viewed sometimes as a leading indicator but maybe just maybe lockdowns in China have been the bigger driver we'll talk more about that as we continue here on daybreak Asia The Bloomberg dollar spot index today up about two tenths of 1% will take another look at markets in 15 minutes Yeah we'll wait for those numbers out of Shanghai as well the latest COVID numbers which have been of course on the upwards trend here as well You talked about the fed commentary Doug Jim bullard the latest there the head of the St. Louis fed said that interest rates should rise sharply to counter inflation and he favors increasing the fed funds rate by 3% in the second half of the year Bullard said the fed has to move forth rightly in order to get the policy rate to the right level to deal with inflation but cooling inflationary pressure may be difficult for the fed Here's former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard I'm not as optimistic as most people I still think it's going to be very very tough I think inflation has a lot of momentum I think wage growth is a very tight labor market which coefficient is strong The fed is going to be a hard time slowing down the machine And it has to admit that it has to store the machine a lot I mean we don't want a recession We also heard from fed presidents Charles Evans of Chicago and Raphael bostic of Atlanta both favor raising rates to neutral while monitoring the economy's response to those hikes The European Union is banning coal imports from Russia It's the EU's first move aimed at Moscow's energy revenue now the block is also banning most Russian trucks and ships from entering the European Union Until now the EU is withheld from targeting Russia's energy industry Germany and Hungary resisted given their reliance on Russian fossil fuels and now German Chancellor Olaf scholz says his country will make use of Russian coal during a transition period While we're also hearing the EU will debate Russian oil imports in the coming days In the United Nations General Assembly has voted to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council Let's get to Ed Baxter.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Didn't believe Jay Powell did we had James bullard the president from the St. Louis fed speaking to Bloomberg today and reinforcing much of what the chair had to say What you have to do is move the policy rate up discreetly a fair amount not to be too disruptive but I think 50 basis point moves are definitely be in the mix And then get to a level that we can be neutral And then from there we can decide if we want to be restrictive and put further downward pressure on inflation But right now we're putting upward pressure on inflation It's the wrong place to be given where inflation is So John that makes sense to me at least you'll want to keep pouring gas on the fire when the fire is going pretty well This is the thing I didn't quite understand from J pile yesterday or for mister borough this time is why do you go to neutral Why don't you go to restrictive given where we are with inflation right now Well I think what Powell said yesterday what was arguably new Was he did specifically say he's prepared to go to more than neutral He is prepared to be restrictive In terms of why you don't still joke the English tell about the Irish that when you ask for the way in us for directions in Ireland the replays well if I wouldn't start from here If you start I love Ireland Yeah You start if you start from where we are now with real rates For two year money like -5 -6% The fed funds real rate If you're starting that low you really can not get to neutral all in one go without creating an almighty financial accident You can go very fast you can go as fast as you dare But we can't go there we can't pass go and pick up $200 and you have to you get those fastest you can but you don't go there straight away So talk about the bond market getting the message yesterday It was the ten year yield was up something like 9 basis points today It's another 8 basis points but it sure moving a lot Yes it is it's fascinating how pennies drop at specific points So the big moments for the bond market since the pandemic have been the FOMC minutes in January if you remember that the first week of the year when there was a reference to maybe we'll need to do QT maybe we will at least discuss shrinking the balance sheet which nobody had really thought was an option and which now is so happening next meeting And the other one was yesterday pals Powell's speech There are just certain moments when the penny drops And bonds move very dramatically I think that helps to explain why stocks are doing so perversely well is that this is a time when there is such a sudden ecstasy from bonds that the only place to put it in the short term that's liquidity makes sense is stocks That this is their benefiting from a direct substitution effect Well I'm glad you raised that because it was going to be one of my questions stocks again are up today And this S&P and NASDAQ typically as I understand it if rates are going up stocks go down because the discount factor affects it But this doesn't seem to be following that rule No And that's what I'm trying to trying to get at is that there are counterweights You can have one or the other So if you don't have one then you have more of the other Is one of the points and then the other is the other way in which the two asset classes affect each other is the higher the interest rate than the less valuation you should be putting on the stock I think the former the notion that people really don't want to be in bonds So they better move to stocks is trumping the latter So that's the point I was trying to get to Is what we're seeing is we may not love stocks but we really hate bonds Yes I've spent quite a few years pushing back at the teenage narrative There is no alternative staying it's another way of saying look just think what might happen if bond yields do go up a lot But what's happening just recently does rather suggest that Tina is still working very well at least at least for now You just really don't want to be in bonds Therefore there's no alternative to stocks What does this do for inflation expectations If we see a reaction to that talk about the break evens A scary We are very close to taking out 3% On the ten year break-even which would be the first time in a very long time and that's the phrase is that you want expectations to be anchored and they're unlikely to be anchored I think they're coming away from their anchor I think it's quite important in this situation stocks plainly are more of a hedge against inflation than bonds bonds aren't in the inflation as you can see inflation at all That it's one thing to say they're a good bet to beat bonds It's another to say this is.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Likely to keep running Among the hot topics this weekend as we watch headlines about the Federal Reserve come in And we caught up with James buller to ask him about it He's president of the St. Louis fed And he tells Bloomberg's Michael McKee and Lisa Brahma with inflation looks high and sticky The inflation rate is quite high The core PC inflation rate that committee's favorite measures about 3.6% That's the highest it's been in 30 years Well above our 2% target and that number already throws out food and energy So you're taming the data a little bit whether you look at that kind of measure but it's quite high It does not have the reputation of moving down very easily So I think who's the committee to attack and a more hawkish direction in the next couple of meetings so that we're managing the risk of inflation appropriately If a flexion just happens to go away we're in great shape for that We're set up for that But if inflation doesn't go away as quickly as many aren't currently anticipating then it's going to be up to the committee to keep inflation under control going forward Well when you say tack in a more hawkish direction are you talking about speeding up the taper even with the risk of a taper tantrum Are you talking about changing forward guidance How would you tack I think we've gotten past the taper tantrum issue because we went ahead and went ahead with.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"By 2700 journalists and analysts in more than a 120 countries around the world Inflation and how hot it's likely to keep running Among the hot topics this weekend as we watch headlines about the Federal Reserve come in And we caught up with James bullard to ask him about it He's president of the St. Louis fed And he tells Bloomberg's Michael McKee and Lisa Brahma with inflation looks high and sticky The inflation rate is quite high The core PC inflation rate that committee's favorite measure is about 3.6% That's the highest it's been in 30 years Well above our 2% target and that number already throws out food and energy So you're taming the data a little bit What do you look at that kind of measure but it's quite high It does not have the reputation of moving down very easily So I think it behooves the committee to attack in a more hawkish direction in the next couple of meetings so that we're managing the risk of inflation appropriately If inflation just happens to go away we're in great shape for that We're set up for that But if inflation doesn't go away as quickly as many aren't currently anticipating then it's going to be up to the committee to keep inflation under control going forward Well when you say tack in a more hawkish direction are you talking about speeding up the taper even with the risk of a taper tantrum Are you talking about changing forward guidance How would you tack I think we've gotten past the taper tantrum issue because we went ahead and went ahead with.
Biz Talk Radio
"st. louis fed" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio
"Of the Fed presidents I spoke about one early this morning. Shannon was just telling me about Bullard. Uh, James Bullard from the ST Louis Fed. Saying that, you know. So here we are. We're looking at Um You know, a short fall a dramatic shortfall. Obviously, we've got we've got spending at 6.9 Trillion, and we've got income revenue of 3.8. Um, that means we've got to print trillions of dollars worth of bonds of dead in order to have the money to pay our bills and it this goes back to what I have been saying. So if I'm wrong about this, which is sounded like I am because some of them are saying Uh, there's two are saying that we could see tapering this year start to taper. I said a month ago, and I'm going to stick to it. And so they do something different, But so they just taper but My my opinion is that they're going to cut. They're going to raise rates. Even if it's um 12.5 basis points. We're going to raise rates something and try to avoid tapering As long as they possibly can to try to put it off. Um And I say that because Janet Yellen Could care. I mean, right, she's she's saying, Okay, we raise rates slightly. That won't dramatically hurt us. You know if we raise rates by 12.5 basis points We're probably going to be adding about, uh, $100 billion. Maybe not that much. Maybe 75 billion to our service of our day. If we taper Um, we really got a problem because now we got to find somebody to buy 30 trillion $30 billion of our debt. And that's not going to be so easy because nobody is buying our debt, and I'm saying nobody. I'm talking about governments. China is not buying Japan's not buying. The Netherlands isn't buying nobody's buying. So we get China. Japan are, um, number number two or number three debt holder, the Federal Reserve being number one. So, um We? She has to be pressuring. Your own power. And I say that with a great deal of certainty, because I can't be wrong. She's raped. I would hope that at least if they're not smart enough to do something about the debt, they're smart enough to panic. About The cash flow. And if that is the case she's got to be. And I got to believe it is the case. They've got to be pressuring, Uh, pal, that you can't stop. You're it. You're our largest buyer day. You so you can't stop. That's my thought. But if they raise rates, I would be very happy. But I would like to see both go on like to see, you know, cut 30 billion of debt a month. That we're buying and raise rates by I'm not even asking for a quarter ammonia, asking for an eighth of a 1%. Uh, rates and nobody's going to care about that The markets are going to care. There will be a knee jerk reaction in the markets, so they realize it's only an eighth of 1%. And it doesn't necessarily mean that it is a trajectory that's going to continue for any length of time. Although I kind of think would be because inflation as 5.2% Is really at I don't know 10, 10 and 10.7, at least by now, Um, they got to start raising rates. Even Bullard was talking about inflation running hotter than what? They wanted it to go. Did he say that? Yeah. Again. Yeah. And you know it is And do you heard the I didn't? I was on the era when we didn't hear it. But did he say anything? Alluding to that It wasn't temporary inflation, or did he? Did He dismiss that at all? Or just didn't bring it up? He didn't use the word transitory or say it was temporary. He did say that he expects it to linger into next year. So all right, so That's his way of not saying that's not temporary, like, Yeah, you know, um And I'm hearing company after company I read, uh from company financials. Last night. That It's a It's, uh, CS 30 who I added to my buy list this morning, but I read their financials last night or, uh, I already reviewed their financials. This was something else that I get. Um, I'm able to get And indicating that they are somewhat concerned about not only wage inflation, which is, uh, you know, a big big issue. But they're saying product inflation. So if any of you know the company I'm talking about CS 30, you know that they deal in a number of different commodities. And food, kinds of things. Um, that would not be considered commodities, but, um, are food products, uh, to make their food products and they're saying that the cost the law can't raw materials for lack of better, um, but the raw materials that they're dealing with every day. Are going up to a mathematically so they say that there Inflation, both wages and and raw materials. Is here to stay, and they are, in fact passing on all of it along to the consumer so that that connects the dots perfectly to know when we start to talk about While if inflation is going up, What do we do about that Well traditionally to hedge to inflation has been equities. And that's the perfect way. The explanation you gave just totally connects the dots between how we combat inflation. Hands. I put them on the vilest. So, um, because number one, they're staple. Good, solid, stable and you're going to see Um more hedging. I believe in things like consumer staples. Commodities..
Bloomberg Businessweek
Senate Banking Committee Approves Contentious Nominee Judy Shelton for Federal Reserve Board
"We begin in Washington. Judy Shelton, President Trump's contentious picked for the Federal Reserve sport of Governors. Was cleared a key hurdle to confirmation by winning the approval of the majority of the Senate Banking Committee. She was back in the party load a party line vote today 13 to 12 committee also voted in favor of Fed nominee Christopher Waller, currently director of research at the ST Louis Fed. His nomination past 18 to
Bloomberg Daybreak
Fed Presidents To Speak At Several Events
"New York fed president John Williams will deliver a keynote speech at a financial markets conference in New York Chicago fed president Charlie Evans speaks in Detroit on trade and the auto industry fed governor Michelle Bowman and St Louis fed president Jim board will make welcoming remarks city fed listens event in Saint Louis their speeches calm amid trade tensions between the US and China and as investors debate whether a recession is brewing in the US and world economies Charlie Pellett Bloomberg daybreak