20 Episode results for "Six Hundred Sixty Thousand Dollars"

NPR News: 12-08-2019 2PM ET

NPR News Now

04:39 min | 1 year ago

NPR News: 12-08-2019 2PM ET

"Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Barbara Klein. The FBI says it's still trying to determine what motivated a twenty one year old. Saudi the air force trainee at the Naval Base in Pensacola Florida to open fraught. Fire Friday. He killed three people before he was shot and killed special official agent. Rachel Rojo says the F. B. is investigating the incident as an act of terrorism. We are as we do in most active shooter investigations. They work with the presumption that this was an act of terrorism. This allows us to take advantage of investigative techniques aches that can help us more quickly identify and then eliminate any additional potential threats to the rest of our community she also says the shooter legally purchased the Gun. He used a massive pro. Democracy demonstration was held in Hong Kong today. This time it was authorized organizers. Put the number eight eight hundred thousand. The police estimate is far lower but either way it was a huge turnout Annemarie Evans reports. It sent a clear and mostly peaceful message to the Beijing backed government in two incidents in the early evening. Both the High Court and the A quarter final appeal had fire set at their entrances. There was also some vandalism of shops but overall the protest was peaceful. The turnout was a clear signal to chief. Executive Carrie Lam that the protesters want an independent investigation into alleged police. Brutality and steps to universal suffrage Komo other demands during the evening. There were escalating tensions between launch groups of riot police facing off against masked black-clad antigovernment protesters and police cordoned off several streets but demonstrators than started to head home a rare peaceful protests in recent times for NPR news. I'm Anna Marie Evans. In Hong Kong air strikes and ground attacks in Syria's northern Illit province are escalating. Leyla Alana Allen reports. The Syrian government with Russian air support is pushing further into rebel-held area south. Today's will more than eighty s strikes targeting thirty. He won villages across it lifts countryside. According to the Syrian observed driven Human Rights Twenty. One people were killed eight of them. Children and forty three injured. The escalation follows is a period of relative calm in the area after Russia announced a ceasefire at the end of August since late. November the Syrian government and is rushing allies have violated the ceasefire repeatedly resuming ground and air bombardment across the province. Human Rights. Watch released a statement last week calling for Russia to be held accountable for war. Crimes committed in Syria due to its unlawful disregard for civilian life in the country for NPR news. I'm Lynn Allen in Beirut this is NPR news. Israel is thanking a real estate mogul in Switzerland. Who's donating Nazi artifacts that he purchased the lebanese-born businessman businessman says he bought the items to keep them out of the hands of hate groups? NPR's Naomi's Evola reports Abdullah Teela told the Associated Press that he paid some six hundred thousand euros or about six hundred sixty thousand dollars at a Munich auction for the items which included Adolf Hitler's top Hat Chatila said that he initially planned to destroy the items but then decided to donate them. They will be given to Yod Vashem. Israel's Holocaust Remembrance Center an appearance in Jerusalem Sunday Chatila said. I believe that the Jewish people are the only ones that have the right to decide what to do with the items Israeli president. Reuven Rivlin told Chatila that he had shown the world how to fight fascism with his purchase and donation of the memorabilia for NPR news. I'm Naomi's level off in tel-aviv. At an art festival in Miami a banana duct taped to a wall is one of the pieces of art. Work has been removed after a patron for an eight the banana he called it performance art. He was asked to leave. And then organizers of the prominent art fair took the peace down as it was proving to be a a distraction from other work on display before the banana was eaten. The work sold for some one hundred twenty thousand dollars with the artist's his permission to replace the banana as needed. I'm Barbara Klein N._P._R.. News in Washington.

NPR Anna Marie Evans NPR Syrian government Barbara Klein Chatila Hong Kong Washington Syria Israel Rachel Rojo FBI Naomi Russia Leyla Alana Allen trainee Lynn Allen Pensacola Florida Beijing
Are we seeing a Te Reo Mori revival?

RNZ: The Detail

22:09 min | 10 months ago

Are we seeing a Te Reo Mori revival?

"New Zealand we have aspirations to hit one million New Zealanders being able to speak Basic Maury by tweeting Foodie one million speaking basic today in twenty years as the government plan. Some say that's impossible in the findings is released and the Royal Society Journal and Based on Census Data Make It look pretty bleak. They say the language is on its way to extinction. But what if we've I've got the numbers wrong. Unfortunately the question on the census is essentially. I would say vague since what I'm saying is I don't think. The census gives us a reliable pitcher. I'm Sharon Break Kellyanne today on the detail language expert Chris Lane crunches the data NC. He's cautiously optimistic. And he tells me why as an Australian he's passionate about to deal my brother marriage and I've original one and hey tribe. A group of people had their own particular language as a chart. I learnt that the last night if Speaker had died in the nineteen sixties axes. But I knew three year study called gift. Theriault a boost help us reach the million by twenty forty even for people who don't speak speak or learn at the study's been given six hundred sixty thousand dollars from the twenty nine thousand nine miles John Fund. BHUTIA WRONG AHO. To quote explore explore with the adult language acquisition can be facilitated by awakening. This latently acquired knowledge called a Proto Lexicon foof well to put into plain language. His Professor Genetic Hang From University of Canterbury we've discovered that Non Mardi speaking. We can use. The islanders actually have quite an in depth knowledge about The funder takes the sound structure of the Mari language. And we think. I've built this up through incidental exposure through their lives so from schools where they might to a few Wyatt to being present speeches. Go to New York. Aw Poor Chord devenue always inspired to uphold the mono of my Tepa as code in the words of the Moldy Pavilion. The people with you. Oh okay okay okay. Hi Marie welcome ceremonies detail. Model Train. J. Singing the national anthem. We were quite surprised to find that people who can't speak model dark. No the means of very meaning Mardi. Weeds have built up quite an extensive knowledge of the word forms of Mardi Protons Lexicon. Yeah so what that means. Is We know that infants. For example when they are exposed to the language. Pick pick-up what we call a proto lexicon and that's woods before you attach meaning to them so imagine a child you're listening to me now and you can understand you know you can hear. Yeah the different words and I'm speaking but wind children listening to adult. Speaking at order sounds like one long gobbled Piece of sand and perhaps get the same sort out of an experience of you've ever traveled overseas and been in a situation where people speaking a different language that you don't understand you can't hear the words that will just sounds you know a complete You know experience. So that's what it's like for children young children and what they do is they proceed. Only sounds and they hear some sounds mock walk on often and more in combination with other sounds and they gradually Lynn Woods but when we say we learn them they understand the form so they might hear the word kit it for example. I'm being spoken a lot around them. And so they get used to. And they realize that it's a weird obviously not consciously they registered it and then they'll attach meaning meaning to the word. They'll see that Kit That's associated with that fluffy animal that I play with so a product is that knowledge of the forms of of our language before you attach meaning to it. We've known and fence go through the sort of stages part of being able to be speakers of a language but we've never known before WH- anywhere in the world that adults could build up a proto leaks Akon and New Zealanders just the ideal place to study this. Because we have a language like Mardi any that is reasonably widespread people get exposed to it incidentally but we know they don't speak it so for example. What kind end of woods did you grow up with? You grew up on the west coast. What sort of Mardi words did you grow up with it? You know you almost take for granted that you you don't realize that you know them but you do I guess even place name so I grew up in So one was growing up on you that was exposed so that would assault written. I heard it spoken But I didn't know that it was made up of Hokey and take out the meanings of those but I got to know those sorts of sound around and combinations and so on and When I went to private school and one of the Fist Mardi songs that we went was to teeter my And we saying that and we saying that without knowing where to meet. It's the sort of exposure that I got as a child in any of us. Why is it important in the whole context of Terrell? Well what we're going to is with saying. Well I K if an adult non MARDI speaking New Zealand's this Proto Lexicon Ken. We ate debated cat. Does it play a role when they do start to Lean Mari and we've got a natural tro sort of laboratory really at the University of Canterbury like most universities in New Zealand. We have teacher training mcchicken and off teach trainees and New Zealand. Two courses and basic real Mari and it came to pray. We have students in these courses. Not only he from New Zealand but we have a reasonably large contingent from Canada. Who Come over to do teacher training in New Zealand? So we're going to be able to try and recruit these. He's Students by New Zealanders and the Canadians and heavy look at what they know before the cost stats. And we'll look in teast. How well may acquire Qua the meanings of the Wu Mardi Woods taught in the course immediately at the end of course in the inner but later on to see how well they retain it and we're hoping to find that are not Speaking Zealanders actually acquire the meanings of words Mardi Woods quicker with more depth than the Canadians and the implications for this for New Zealand? Is that New Zealand. We have an aspirational aim to have one million New Zealanders being able to speak Basic Lisa Marie by twenty forty. Now that's only twenty years away More and more New Zealand is learning to deal. But if we can say well actually actually you've got a little bit of a hit stat. We're not saying that learning a language is easy but maybe the exposure that you've had that you don't even know that you've head to Tokyo Mardi through your lifetime. It's going to give you a little bit of a hit star that would be I. Think an amazing incentive for getting more people to learn to deal yes is it also a case for putting more words into our every time language. You know when I grew up in the news or Read it in the newspaper. They were the odd words. I gaze like Mariah or Hui but it feels like today there are are a lot more words and everyday joost. What would that be create? Yes they certainly isn't people during research on that. And and the tracking that and yes. It's more and more. You may have heard the south non more New Zealanders some sometimes using Mardi words even when the English alternative. I've heard Sports people packing sports people talk about traveling overseas with the final choice to compete. And what they mean by that is the relative sleep sleep appearance or whatever and often friends so I think we are using more more Maori Woods. when I spoke to earlier this week you talked about your sister. Who's lived in Australia Australia for twenty to thirty years and she wind up to y Tung? And you told me that you know she notice quite a big change range and the way we use language. That's right I mean over my lifetime. It when I grow up I told you I grew up in Hokkaido Takata but when I grew up it was hokey tiger and still lives pronunciation for a lot of New Zealanders but increasingly. It's becoming expected that we will give a motive pronunciation to Mauri placenames Kevin Brady Iraqis and the fix it on. Hold okay. It is my sister who's been away for a long time came back and said Oh my goodness i. We went to. Why tangy and I've just discovered that I've been saying wind would marry wrong own these years? Please tell me how to pronounce it correctly. We haven't had any walker jumping recently. we you know. There's a lot of phrases that have come into New Zealand English. I'm in no way swayed constant social media great state by Al Pacino Arrive. You'll tell molly buxom freezing pockets as a why he named Molly leader I about a deep hurt calling someone put the puppy is rather a compensating statement to dismiss out on the he. It's quite the feature of New Zealand English that anyone from overseas comes. You open most newspapers you'll find Probably even some headlines with Mardi weeds in them and and really is the most distinctive feature of our lexicon advocate blurry in New Zealand is the use of Maury Woods we called it the Dole. Oh to apprenticeship scheme this now coupon my he. It's all about young people on the unemployment benefits if this goal of one million New Zealanders speaking what basic today. Oh by twenty four becomes reality. What will we sound like when we chat to each other old? How will it sound? Do you think Oh. I think he'll be just increasing use. is beside of more modern weeds. Perhaps people code switching switching From speaking being English and I'm putting in a prep amaury sentence or a phrase so not just words phrases and even sentences. You've talked me a little bit about. In what your research will do. By looking at this Cohort of students. The Canadian in the New Zealand students. What else will you look it over? The three years will also be doing other sorts of experiments where we'd get people to play a little game that teaches awesome the meanings of Somali Woods. So we will do more experimental type research that will be drilling down into Happy People Attach meanings to Mardi Woods And one of the outcomes is going to be actually were Language Teachers and general a lot of people who teach languages tell Luna's to expose themselves to the target language as much as possible. You know put on a podcast You know listen to as much as possible. Just have of it in the background. And so this an instinctive realization that that sort of exposure is going to help people with language learning and give a lot more incentive for people when the learning languages to be able to pick it up things up a bit quicker. What's your own experience Geneva? I mean to you speak. The language is so I started listening to the Amora longtime ago. I think I started when I was fifteen. So it's been a long long journey. Why did you start learning? It's really hard to sign. I can't really quite remember but I was attracted to the language is a secondary school student and then I studied further at university and becoming involved with the Mardi community joined. What at the time was called Mardi Club at university and we did have Capela hacker and got to know people and I I really felt Gosh Afam New Zealander I? This is part of being a pocket hat. New Zealander is I am is being. Engaging with indigenous is culture here sought became really important part of exploring my identity is a New Zealander. And what is your dream with language. What what would you like to happen? ISA would like to see more and more people we know few started learning to do in the eighty s and ninety S. Actually a lot automotive were quite suspicious of paccar non Mari Learning to new at the time. And that's because the language was an even more vulnerable state But nowadays Mari are much more accepting the fact that we have aspirational name of a million New Zealanders means that we have a lot of non Maury we. We want a lot of non Mary to be able to speak a little bit of today's language. Experts can't seem to agree on whether the language is doomed. Oh not the trouble is we. Just don't have the data to give a full picture of exactly who speaks to both Mari and non Marty I think by needs to be cautiously cautiously optimistic. Kind of shaking revival. Chris Line calls himself an independent researcher. He used to lecture in linguistics at Victoria University University. And he's been looking at various surveys on the language for many years. What my paper for publications as is the fact that you get quite a different looking pitcher depending which statistics you look at based on what question has been asked so in the censuses assistant question that's asked asked in what language or languages can you have a conversation about a lot of everyday things says the census question if you just look at data from that census question mouth is still l.? Seem to be in decline. But I've looked at data now from four different surveys which comes from answers to different question. which is what is the first? It's language that you learned to speak as a child at the other important part of the analysis if we split people up according to win they were born we can. Let's see a patent so people who were born up to the nineteen fifties this affair proportionate those who have vowed safe offers language Mardi people born in the sixties and seventies very small number of first language speakers if we look at Mardi born in eighteen nineties the sexiest a greater percentage of those who have Maria fist language. Compared with that previous group porn sixties and seventies and so I have looked at this informative and surveys and surveys. You have to be very careful about you. Imagine Viagra all the time that you know these differences a big enough they'd beyond imagine a very We can be pretty confident as to what they mean so the next question is why. Are we getting these different results. And my argument is that unfortunately the question on the census as essentially I would say is vague. Since what I'm saying thing is I don't think the census gives us a reliable pitcher. I think we're actually getting a somewhat more reliable pitcher if we look at those first language statistics two six which do show evidence of a revival If we compare the first language into the speaking proficiency the thing we see there is this quote a lot of people who you have moldy or say their mouth as a first language but then as adults I say well actually now my proficiency is not very good good. So there's a degree of attrition which I might they might have been born into a home where molly was was spoken more than English English but for various reasons they have lost the language year in the world. Think of it is you can get kids started a- As fiddling with speakers you speak to them as young children or whatever but then there's another whole journey in maintaining language and getting it into account of adult level of usage. I think add knowledge of what's really happening is is actually really quite patchy. Yeah an undischarged sort of shed a bit of light on it up to the nineteen sixties. It was a really a very negative attitude towards mountie and let him out. He went who could speak language speaker to their children in the seventies you start stop to get a lot of vegetation for Mardi language in schools that this petition ninety seventy two petitions so And various things starting batting up like data to teach Mari to families and so on. That's a beginning of a big change of consciousness for Mardi but also this. I've seen this sort of gradual change of consciousness. furtherest two vessels. Well because I'm not mighty and I think that Sultan important pad you know to have a sense that is more acceptance of the language is probably an important padded his. It's a mysterious process. I remember twenty years ago trying to find a sort of guidebook to how do we go about language revitalization. Is there some way somebody. That's down at the control. You how it works no. Nobody's really done this. Kind of a revitalization vitalize ation of an indigenous language. Lots of people all around the world. Look to Mardi Moutier in the front this really. What about Wales I think don't well seniors wiles as an executive somewhat different example while to sound very well in using education to will both I maintain and actually expand language but at the most recent statistics are looked? At for Welsh they have not turned around the intergenerational national language transmission the learning of the language in the home is still appears to be declining and wells. There is a kind of revival through education And we may have thought that was sort of the case with Maui because a lot of the research has tended Vegas on Coronado and could Copa Oh papa and educational interventions and so. We've almost noten what's been happening in families and the other thing I found also also in the research is that people. His his language is melody. Were extremely likely to go to Colorado and could cope up a so the the things are sort of and twenty again. I think ear. There really is strong evidence of this sort of groundswell reversal of the previous loss of mountain As the revival is actually going on but meanwhile we I suspect we won't even say it in the twenty s since the statistics. We might see this Quiz Jeff Question. You ask different questions you get different. Data epilepsy steals statistical. Issue here. And what's your thinking because I think the government's goal is one million Terrell speakers by twenty forty. Actually I haven't really looked at in detail depends Has Been indicated. The question probably match on exactly how you define line. Who's a speaker and what questions you ask people? Just go about that sort of cautiously optimistic. It's a had struggled really elite and as an important to yo you know you're not just doing it for the sake of looking at data as as the revival of the language important to your peers. It is I grew up in strider and yet my my brother marriage and aboriginal one hit tribe. A group of people had their around particular language. As a child I learnt that the last night if speak here had died in the nineteen sixties. This who it was struck from the saddest. Saddest thing yeah and But I came ever hit a New Zealand in the seventies and started lending Mardi about the second year that I was here and I had a wonderful experience with that actually become reasonably proficient in speaking which I know you're Loa can still understand what people say. So I you know I do have a strong personal bond with the language itself and I would the whole the concept of the the survival and revival of languages. That's sort of close. That's the detail today. I'm Sharon Kelly. The detail is brought to you by newsroom. Dot Co dot did and made possible by iron seed and inside Iran Air had the subscribe button to stay across the detail everyday we day. And if you're on April please leave a rating as it helps other listeners find us. This episode was engineered by Jeremy Ansell and produced by Alexia Russell. And thanks to Janet King and Chris Lane Con whitten.

New Zealand New Zealanders Mari Mardi Mardi Woods Wu Mardi Woods Lynn Woods Tokyo Mardi University of Canterbury Mardi Club Lisa Marie molly Terrell Mardi Moutier New Zealand Chris Lane Royal Society Journal government New Zealand English
10.23.18 Brand name prices skyrocketing; Scam calls proliferate; Zip codes and car insurance prices

Clark Howard Show

35:34 min | 2 years ago

10.23.18 Brand name prices skyrocketing; Scam calls proliferate; Zip codes and car insurance prices

"Debbie here on the Clark Howard show where it's all about you and that Walla yours. I want you to learn ideas me so you can save more and spend less and don't let anyone ever rip you off speaker ripoffs be really wary answering your phone. I got some new info for you coming up in today's Clark rage about why answering your phone can be dangerous here, wallet and later yet being a dangerous to your wallet. Do you know one of the factors really affecting what you pay now for insurance is the zip code you live in, at least with some insurers. I'm gonna give you advice how to counteract that or benefit from it right now, though I wanna talk about something that is an issue. Fear wallet as the economy's gotten better. Americans in larger numbers are buying products from name brand manufacturers instead of pride. Label store brands and the manufacturers of heavily advertised consumer goods are feeling like, wow, this is the first time in forever that people are buying our stuff even at higher prices to the point that now Proctor and gamble is raising the price of a lot of its stuff, five to ten percent. Think of things like head and shoulders shampoo. They make dawn detergent Oli moisturizer. They're just one brand name product company Proctor and gamble makes a lot more things than that. By the way, diapers are big with them toilet paper paper towels. It goes on and on and on. And so those brand name items for the first time in decade or really moving up in price and the quantity sizes are shrinking with a lot of products at the same time is what. You pay at the checkout is going up. And so this time right now is the strongest in probably a decade for the argument that I make the you should buy private-label or Storebrand instead of buying the brand name because I mean, whose money is it, it's your money. And so I am very experimental with private labels and try different ones. And we accept or reject based on basically collection of opinions within the family on private label in which ones they like, which ones they don't. We're all private-label paper towels. Now, all private label facial tissue where private label on most things that we buy in the house. And one of the things that's been. A big influence or an our house is we do about eighty percent of our grocery shopping at all d. a. l. d. high, which is almost one hundred percent private label store brand, and the quality of the goods are so good that it pretty much has become our Goto as a grocery store, and it has been a way for us to save a lot of money, but be wary of these big price increases on the brand names because this is a cycle. There's a cyclical thing when people are feeling better about their own wallets, even if they have been happy with the private label, the store stuff, they somehow gravitate back to the brand names because dollar in your wallet just doesn't feel as important when the dollars have gotten a little fatter in your wallet. And to me. Me dollars important at all times, but I wouldn't be me. I didn't feel that way right. Amy's with us on the Clark Howard show. Hi, Amy. Hi Clark. Thank you for taking my call. Sure. How are you doing? I'm doing well, thank you. So you have a bit of a conundrum that let's see if I can be of help to you. Yeah, actually, it's my daughter who seems to have lost her birth certificate and her social security card. And I am wondering what to do, what what to offer her in terms of advice with the most important thing that would be an immediate move is to freeze her credit file. If she has not done that yet. Yeah, we've she's done that. So if she's done those things, you cannot change the social security number. There's almost no circumstances where the social security ministration will change a number. So for her, if is it possible? The card was stolen. I mean, it's not it's. I think there's a small chance that it was. It wasn't it's it's been misplaced and it might have been misplaced in a place where somebody could have picked it up and taking it. Okay. So it's really hard to know. So I guess I just wanna make sure that in the event somebody does have it that you know, we figure out what to do to try to prevent something from happening where you know, I talk about credit freeze as something I want everybody to do anyway. But in her case, credit freeze is very valuable because with the information, if the information from the birth certificate and the social security card with its number on it, if those two items fell in the hands of a criminal, that's like opening it up wide for a density theft and applying for creditors if they're applying for serve. With companies as if they're her. And so by having the credit frozen, it's like the perfect example how to deal with the perfect storm of key personal information being out there. So there's not really anything else for her to do other than when the time comes that she needs to thought her credit for some purpose. I would like her to sign up with credit karma and credit sesame so that she's got monitoring going on at at all times of what's going on with their stuff. And both of those are free to use. You can't set up with them while you're credits frozen though. So actually she does have credit karma account. Oh, good. Good. That's great. So she'll have ability to monitor anyway and she's got it frozen. So the monitoring is really if somebody were able somehow defeat the. Credit freeze system, and so she's done what she should, and you know getting a new copy of a birth certificates very easy in most jurisdictions and the replacement social security cards, not hard either. So getting new documents that's not hard. It's worrying about what somebody might do with the documents that were misplaced. That's the part that's failing. Okay. And that basically, those are basically the things that she has to do and and she doesn't have to notify you know the social security office or any of those any official office or. No. And how old is she? She's twenty nine. So that's not really an issue the if she were if she were in her fifties or early sixties and her social security card had gone missing? I would recommend a process with social security where you can set. Yup, something called my social security. Were you able to monitor that? Nobody's attempting to do an application to social security, but it twenty in our twenties. That's not an issue. Okay, great. So she's going great. Thank you very much. Sure. Advice and best to her and sounds like an situation that could be messy. She's well protected by having that credit freeze already. There Kimberley's with us on the Clark Howard show. Hi, Kimberly, high Clark. How're you doing. I'm doing well, how are you? Good, Kimberly. I'm so glad to have you here because I have had quite a bit of feedback and the two occasions that I've talked about people doing their own teeth straightening and you have a perspective on that that you wanted to make sure that listeners heard about the idea buying one of these at home t- straightening kits. Yeah, absolutely. Being a business manager for dental office, you know, there's, there's issues around direct to consumer orthodontics. We all see that I really feel like the vast majority of consumers may not be aware of so hit us with. 'cause what you're going to share as the perspective of when things go wrong. Because I hear plenty from people who've used the at home t- straight Nur's that are thrilled with the result, but I'm not hearing from the people who you are privy to tell me what kind of things are fouling people up. Sure. I, it's not the appliance. It self the appliance. Structurally is going to be very similar if not identical to clear liner that you would get from your dentist orthodontist where the issues come in and we're, we've seen oral health issues and in some cases, costly, oral health issues, not to mention painful. It really comes. Not the align itself, but the active straightening a patient's teeth without the in-person supervision of eight into orthodontist. So what kind of things make people vulnerable that are using these at home t- straightening kits? Yeah, yeah, that's a great question. You know, really any oral health issues and particularly oral health issues that haven't been diagnosed so that they win is going to be gum disease or particularly advanced gum disease, you know? So anytime with with gum disease involved, or if there's really any number of procedures that a patient would need, things like fillings or a root canal or crown, that hasn't been diagnosed and hasn't been done. You came concept, VERA damage to your teeth? What brought this issue up for me as a patient that an orthodontist treated adult patient whose front teeth were so loose adult permanent tees or so loose in looked like I was watching video of a child. Losing baby teeth shocking, but that patient hot advanced gum disease, I just know it. So we ask this question, Kimberly. If somebody is going to a dentist for teeth, coining and exams on a regular basis twice a year, they're going to be aware already, aren't they? That they would have gum disease. Yes. And that's more of the ideal candidate. You know, if you're gonna do orthodontic treatment without the direct supervision of dentist or orthodontist, you want to have been regularly senior inist, ensure that your mouth is healthy enough for that. So that's the exact you know, in most cases that can help mitigate problems, you know, however, there can still be issues that come up just in the process of straightening teeth that even if you've been cleared by your dentist, you can still have issue. One of the bigger ones that I hear about and I talked to a patient last week about is she she kept describing it to me that her teeth or clanging and banging together, and the more that I talked to, I realized that what she was saying very uncomfortable, painful, what she was saying. She can't close her upper and lower teeth. So that's another part important part of the orthodontic process that's harder to really address. Yes, you know, when you're not seeing a patient in person is not just straightening teeth but aligning their teeth. So they fit together comfortably when the patient closes their mouth, you know anything like that that might require Vance treatments, you know, or other modalities to address. It's just a lot harder to pick up on when you're working remotely with these companies. Well, I appreciate that perspective very much and you know, we've had a lot of strong feedback from people in the dental industry and that that it doesn't at all share the full story. When I talk about people doing this and why they're doing it and how much money they're saving, that you've got a perspective. It's very clear that people can have harm when all they're trying to straighten their teeth that the consequences can be more severe than they realize. Thank you for sharing the Clark. Howard podcast is brought to you by trunk club. You know how to make smart investments. With your portfolio. But what about with your closet with trunk club, personal styling, you get paired with professional stylist who can help you build a smart and functional wardrobe for everything from Monday morning meetings to Saturday night dinners. It's as easy as messaging your stylist and telling them what you need. They'll put together a trunk, a curated selection of clothes, shoes and accessories, and send it straight to your door. They can even create custom suits shirts trousers and sportcoats just for you since trunk club is not a subscription, you can order a trunk. Whenever you want. This also means there are no recurring charges and no cancellation fees. Talk about smart spending. Start building your best wardrobe by visiting trunk club dot com. Slash saving. Today's Clark -rageous moment is something that is aggravating for so many of us, and that is the junk phone calls. I have new data for you that will make you reluctant to answer your phone. Roaches Clark Regis moment. You ever heard of you mail way. Oh, you mail? It is one of those free me. I'm business model voicemail services where you're able to have basic services for free. You want fancy stuff you pay and they have. Steadily continually updated list of scam numbers. And when you have you mail, if there's one that they know to be a likely scam call it pops up that way, and they will divert the call where it will never go through to you and it won't allow the people to leave a voicemail in many circumstances. Well, they with database of people who use you male, they're able to track the source of calls coming in and their most recent report just released finds that nearly four out of ten phone calls that we received now are from scammers nearly four Atta ten. Another one in five or from telemarketers. So between those two, you've got closing in on two thirds of phone calls that we're receiving are junk phone calls of some kind and more likely to be from scammers than they are from just regular sales people trying to reach us. So consider following my rule is this simple rule. If I don't recognize the number as being from someone I know I do not answer the call just before I went on the air today. I had a phone call come in that said, it was from Bank of America. And I don't do business with Bank of America. I knew that it was what's pretexting call fake call and I didn't answer. But what if I was a customer of Bank of America and I see that come up on caller ID I might be more likely to answer, right. Well, if your Bank or whoever actually needed to talk to you, they're going to leave you voicemail and then never call back from the number left in that voicemail call the number that you know to be the financial institution because even when it's a place you do business with the caller may be phony this situation, they're calling you about maybe a kind and don't get taken. Glad you're with us here on the Clark Howard show where it's about you being empowered with knowledge, so you can keep more of what you make. And by the way we offer advice to you off air over. Forty hours each week. You can talk with a member of team Clark. It's a free service of our show has been for twenty six years where we'll answer your calls off the air Mondays through Fridays. And if you go to Clark dot com, scroll down a little, you'll see the phone number and hours off. Air advice is available each weekday. So over the years, I've talked about how insurers use credit scores as a bigger and bigger factor in how they set rates for a variety of insurance products, particularly auto and homeowners. Now I can add to that that another factor insurers are using to either stick it to people or reward them is the zip code that you live in. There was a study just completed by the consumer federation of America that found enormous differences from zip code desert code. And this is something a particular interest to me because at one point, my wife and I lived in a house that was at a corner where threes zip codes met. I mean, isn't that crazy when the postal service drew zipcode. If I stepped one way I was in the second set code, if I stepped another way I was in the third zip code and my driveway, I was in the zip code. That was our official one. And according to what the consumer federation of America found, there can be. The differences of hundreds and hundreds of dollars typically four hundred dollars for taking that step across per year and what you pay for auto insurance or homeowner's insurance that they specifically, I shouldn't say that specifically the study was auto insurance just stepping across the street. And not all insurers do things the same way. They're not a monolith, but insurers routinely will use credit scores as a minor factor or a big factor in setting rates. Zip code is a small or big factor in setting rates, and because neither of these things have anything to do with your driving record your age male, female. They have nothing to do with the historical factors of setting rates. It means that for the same human being, the price differences from insurer to insurer are the widest gaps that have ever existed. So now you could be someone who has never had a ticket or hadn't had one in recent years. My last ticket was. In nineteen ninety three. Pretty good streak. Aren't I without a ticket? I don't want that streak to run out and I can't remember the last time I was in an accident. Smell long time anyway. So. Those things how I drive you'd think that would be, how would be determined what I'm gonna pay, but that credit score. Is gonna be giant with many insurers and the zip code a little giant. So for you. Shopping around where you already know what kind of driver you are. You just need to quote the same level of coverages that you have now, and by the way. Raise that deductible. When you go to shop, typically do a thousand dollars. You may say, hey, what am I gonna do? I don't have a thousand dollars if something goes wrong. Well, here's the thing you make small-claims on auto insurance. You now have a Mark of shame that makes it difficult for you to shop around and is likely to lead to big increases in the premium. She pay with who you're then stuck with. So you wanna use auto insurance when you got something relatively bigger that you have to deal with, not something relatively small because they'll burn you when you make that small claim. It's worse even with homeowners insurance, but you raise that deductible. And if you have a lot of assets, you own your home free and clear which like third people do. You've got things that are value, don't cheap out on liability coverage when you decide to get quotes, make sure you have a decent amount liability coverage. Because people see those billboards people see those TV ads. People see those signs on the side of buses that you have won the lottery. You might not. You don't have to worry about winning the big game or the mega millions. You just have to be an accident that you got somebody, you can go sue. We're a sue happy country. I was on the west coast of Florida recently, and there was this billboard of this person smiling who'd been injured in an accident and the billboard, the person's talking about how some lawyer got him six hundred sixty thousand dollars, and they're smiling ear to ear people out there like that. So make sure that if you got stuff the, you've got enough liability insurance. And if you got a lot of stuff, meaning money. And Yellen stuff. Rian clear. You wanna look into an umbrella which sits on top of your regular coverage as additional liability, very cheap to buy for what you get sold in increments of one million dollars of additional protection for you. In the event, somebody's able to hold you responsible for something that went wrong and their lives, and they don't have to necessarily show that you're at fault. They just have to convince the insurance company is not worth their time to defend you, and they just start handing out checks. Jason joins us on the car coward show. Hi, Jason. Hey, Clark, how are you? Great. Thank you, Jason. You've got money hanging out all over the place. I do and I know what to do with it. All right. Let me see back in help. These are good problems to have the way. Yes, sir. What's got. I've got a, I've got two different 401K accounts from two different companies I've worked for in the past. One is currently sitting about eighteen thousand some chains and the other one around seven thousand. Of course, no longer work for them. And the company currently worked for does not offer a 401K. So I guess my question is, what do I do with his money that's sitting where you do have the option of just leaving it. And were those big companies small or in between that you were with before? Okay. So the one with eighteen thousand one of most concerned with a smaller company and I'm worried if they go out of business, what happens to that money, the money would be okay in the 401K. But if it's a small business, there's a different issue and that small businesses tend to have very high costs for a one ks, right? So I would skedaddle that money out quickly and move it to one of the low cost providers and have an IRA with one of them. The three big low cost providers for having IRA's our vanguard, Charles Schwab, and Fidelity Investments. Okay. And let me tell you something. Do not call the administrator of the 401K and say, hey, I want to. Move this money out into an IRA, they'll say, great. What addressed he wants to India check? Never take a check because what they do is they would subtract thirty six hundred dollars from the Czech. They'd send you and send it to the IRS withholding and you have to make up that thirty six hundred in the next sixty days or you end up paying massive tax for not being able to make that up. So what you do with whoever you would go with is they'll do paperwork that will move the money directly from the old employer's plan straight into wherever you're going to have the IRA. Okay. Do you recommend an IRA or the Roth IRA. Do I hear you talk about that. All right. So the story is you can't take money. There was an traditional 401K and put it into a Roth without having a big tax Bill because all that money was pretax. Correct. So you go into a traditional IRA with that money? Not a Roth IRA. Okay. And you can over time migrate the money from the traditional to a Roth as you could afford to pay tax on money each year or you could just know you got money, that's they are. That's going to grow over the years that you're going to have to pay tax on some day. Now, let's talk about the other one. The seven thousand is that in a big employers plan or small. Now, it's a very large employer trading on the stock exchange, so is a big employer, the odds favor that will be an extremely low cost plan probably lower than you could find in an IRA. Okay. So. The only exception to that would be if they have that money administered by an insurance company for them the 401K or by a Bank, it's it's, it's it's through one of the three that you mentioned and you could just leave that seven behind and move the eighteen. Okay. And then as far as contributing to that, then you're able to contribute straight to the IRA versus trying to go through back question. Great question. So let's say, let's keep this simple. I in fact, let me let me really think about this. Who is the company that administers the plan for the big publicly traded company used to work for its vanguard. So if you want to keep it simple. Move both of them van guard in an IRA and just be done with the old employers for one case because if his vanguard the cost, so being low enough as an individual anyway, and then you've got the simplification just having IRA there and then vanguard open a Roth for any future contributions, see Italy, the twenty five to grow in a vanguard IRA. And then you open a new account with vanguard for a Roth in any current or future contributions he make go into the Roth. Okay. And then those can be so just I'm sorry, I, I'm not a hundred percent up to date on all these things, but it rough is post tax. Correct? Exactly. And you're already going to have twenty five grand. That's a pretext account. You wanna have money in a post tax accountant a Roth. It's really great to have a mix of both, but tilted more towards the Roth. This would be a way for you to do it. You simplify your life. You just have an IRA at van guard a Roth, IRA vanguard, old money in the IRA new money and the Roth IRA. And that would be a good way few to build up money going forward. Chris is with us on the Clark Howard show. Hi, Chris. Hey, Clark. Thanks for taking my call. Sure. You got a puzzle you want to see if I can find the pieces for. Yes, sir. What we're looking at twenty nineteen health plans. Currently we're, we are all on a family plan under my health insurance. However, my company starts surcharge surcharge for a spouse that's able to get health insurance through their employer and using around numbers. It's roughly fourteen hundred dollars a year. So if I cover my dependents and myself it the premiums would be nine hundred versus including her which would be eighteen hundred on top of that fourteen hundred dollar surcharge anyway. So she's nine hundred extra month plus an additional fourteen hundred dollar surcharge year. Correct. So she's ten eight eleven eight, twelve twelve thousand something a year for health coverage through your existing employer. How much is it for her? If she goes on her employer's plan, it would be eleven hundred year. Eleven hundred a year versus twelve thousand a year. Versus about twelve hundred additional on top of for the family plan. The nice thing too. If we both take. Are company sponsored plans that they're both high deductible plans where mine's three thousand dollars, but the company incentivizes the employee's for two thousand thus leaving roughly a thousand dollars to cover for that deductible. Were hurt for hers is five thousand, but it would cover one hundred percent once that's met. So the main question to still keep the whole family under one bucket or should we each take our own plan and then just try to max out the annual HSA twenty nineteen. So that was all very confusing numbers. The advantage of each of you being on your own employer's plan is you never know what happens with the job market jobs you have who ends up owning who you work for and things like that. So I actually like an less it was prohibitively more expensive for each of you to be on your own plan to be each on your own plan. In this case, it's actually cheaper for her to be on her own plan. If I followed the math, correct. It would say right around twenty two hundred a year gave her cake in premiums and surcharge. Yes, I would say it definitely makes sense for her to stay on to go on her company plan your on your plan gathered. It was better for the kids to be on your plan. So I would do that where you eat have gives you more flexibility more versatility with health coverage. If you're each on your own thing instead of all. Of you are on your own, particularly with being a money savings. It's time for ask Clark where you post to question for me at Clark dot com. Bruce Joel asset Clark Bill road, and he said, what's your opinion on having a living will? Oh, I want everybody to have a living will because I want you to be able to state what your preferences are in the event that you are incapacitated and can't speak for yourself. Many states now have a state mandated form often referred to as an advanced healthcare directive. And in many states, you have both a Representative. You a point in this form and you state your wishes. Now, what do you want to have happen in different circumstances? In many times, they'll be things you really haven't thought of or through because just because you're temporarily incapacitated. The question within become more, what are your chances for recovery and all that and you decide, I've sat with people doing these forms wherein you don't know where people's heads are about this kind of stuff till they do it where someone will say, oh yeah, do everything possible, or somebody else say, no way, you know, I wanna do not resuscitate. I want this, that and the other personal preferences what matters. It's not appropriate deduced having in your own head and all you gotta do is going whatever search engine use. Google duck duck go, whatever you do and you put in advanced healthcare directive, and then whatever your state name is, and then you will see get past the ads. These forms are free done by the states, and you'll see the official form for your state. If your state has most of them do have an official form, just fill it out, have it witnessed? Is it. Calls for and you're good. Just make sure the people you wanna make your medical decisions for, you know, your wishes verbally as well as having a copy of the form. You're listening to the Clark Howard show. Thanks for joining us today that Clark Howard show is produced by Kim droves. Joel LARs guard Debra Reese and gem airs and remember twenty four hours a day where there to serve you at Clark dot com. And Clark deals dot com.

Clark Clark Howard IRA Roth official gum disease consumer federation of America Kimberly Storebrand Amy Proctor Proctor Oli Clark Regis Bank of America Jason Walla
Coronavirus And Your Finances: We Answer Your Questions!

The Money Guy Show

1:12:58 hr | 9 months ago

Coronavirus And Your Finances: We Answer Your Questions!

"Wow what a difference a week makes I mean just to let you guys know. You know the money guys show. We Wanna be your source for good financial information. We also went entertained. You sometimes money you can get lost in the weeds with it. But I I knew we had an issue though when even creating thumb Nell for this special question to answer show We didn't have anything that reflected because we're kind of fun loving guys and you know we didn't have anything that reflected that so it showed me that man this is when you're looking for thumbnails reflect the time that you're in it shows what unique periods because think about the the week has changed so much schools are now out and we're gonNA be doing remote learning. We've got travel restrictions globally. Who knows if it's going to happen any impact? Domestically weren't even supposed to be here. This week of US must be traveling grocery stores. I mean we we're seeing. Fortunately it looks like you can still get a lot of supplies but toll paper cleaning supplies things like that. I mean every grocery store I've been in has stated policies. Now to keep people from hoarding. And then social distancing has now hit our vocabulary. Yeah it is was thing so we want to be serious about this because this is We know this is one of those times. We'll look back. They'll be talking about this fifty years one hundred years from now. There'll be books written about this. There will be after action reports talking about this so a lot of you guys and it and it does deserve to have the letter level of action. We're taking because people's lives are at stake especially our parents. Our grandparents anybody. Who's in that dangerous zone are has underlying health issues? That is this is serious business. And that's why I would encourage everybody we're going we're going to focus on the financial things you need to consider but I do encourage everybody go to the sources go to the CDC Watch the daily press briefings. Because there's I know I am glued to those type of things because I can. This reminds me a lot of ways. After we had the two thousand eight two thousand nine financial crisis there was started to be daily briefings on what was going on with. You know shotgun marriages and so forth in the banking sector. There's nothing like that because this is not something that was because the financial system is coming apart. This is more like a a natural disaster. A war were all kind of grouped in this. The whole global world is grouped into this same situation. So I think it is worthwhile to make sure you're preparing your family doing the good hygiene also following the guidelines that are being put out by the government but I do WANNA pay respect that but also WanNa make sure we equip you with the right decisions. You should be making for your family to protect your wallet as well as your long term goals because it is very easy to depart from the path. That's going to get you through this so what we wanted today as we're GonNa this is alive. I WanNa give you some opportunity. Ask US questions kind of get our tastes get our insights but before we do that we wanted to kind of lay some foundational thoughts out therefore you about how you should be looking at this from a financial perspective and how you ought to think about this in the grand scheme of financial decision making and ultimately wealth-building so. I I kind of want to jump in and talk about staying the course because we're getting the questions. This is the part where if you have a financial advisor this is where you go quickly find out if your financial adviser is playing in the majors or if they're working their way through the minor leagues right now because there is a lot of questions that are coming in from clients and one of the first ones. Everybody is dealing with this is. Why don't we go to cash? Let things calm down and then get back into the market later. This is always the question that comes up when we start having a water volatility. Yeah in general. He goes something like this. This is how I was here. It's someone who is supposed to say. Hey by the way. I'm not freaking out. I'm not scared I'm not but I think it's going to get worse. So why don't we just go to cash? I'm not freaking out. But why don't we just make a huge decision to change the course that we are on and it makes sense because emotionally in the short term. It feels better to do something to react and realize also human nature is. We are herd animals so it makes sense that when we spot you know some type of danger our first gut reaction is. Let's go seek safer grant. But here's the problem with it is that I I've been through quite a few downturns I've actually I'm old enough. I've been through bear markets. And you never know the day of recovers the day that we hit. The bottom of the market is feels like every other day. It's not like there's a press release or some type of information that goes out and says guess what all clear from here on out you've survived. Congratulations it happens. And then you start noticing. We have put together a few days. It's that whole falling knife. You never know when the market. That's why you have to be careful a lot of you guys. I look we did it to. We've already funded are as we've already funded. Are you know health savings accounts for the year? We tried to be opportunistic. And then we realize. Hey the timing on. That wasn't her was a perfect. So you you you know you're starting to catch on and that does impact you emotionally so what we tell. People is to realize the worst days usually have are followed by some of the best. There is a lot of return that occurs in very short period of time. I know when we we've done a lot of presentations. We show the worst periods for financial markets and I'm always surprised that the brethren the period that shows the best periods in the markets typically follow rightly afterwards. So we thought we'd show a few illustrations on why missing some of the best as in the market is actually so powerful to looking at your long term performance and so it's a really hard thing to do. I mean we all we all almost. Everyone agree that we don't have any sort of ability to time. The market's really well. Well the immediate question you should have is just how costly could it be if I get it wrong? And so this is what we said. We said if we want to look at what happens. We just missed the best days of investing. So we're going to look at the S. and P. Five hundred the five hundred largest companies here in this country. We're go all the way back to nineteen eighty through the end of two thousand eighteen. So we're looking at thirty eight year period here. Well if you're just invested that ten thousand dollars in one thousand hundred and just let it ride all the way through twenty eighteen. Your ten thousand dollars would have turned into almost six hundred and sixty thousand miles stuff. So let's just stop right there and acknowledged the power of compounding interest. The power of letting the market do with the market does because in this time period we saw oil issues. We saw great recession. We saw DOT COM bubble burst. We saw all kinds of huge black swan events. This still allowed a ten thousand dollar investment to turn into six hundred sixty thousand dollars. This is this is a perfect illustration of while wealth creation is so simple. You just put the money. In the market LET COMPOUND INTEREST. Do it but wealth creation might be simple does not necessarily mean. It's easy because remember human nature is going to tell you seek safety protect yourself because there's Bosa there's lots of bad stuff that happened in this thirty eight year period. So let's talk about now. What happens if you did do what everybody's got reaction? Let's go to cash. Wait this out and then get back into this thing thirty days or just when it feels better even had a phone call yesterday with a client said. Let's just wait until the dust settles and then we'll be okay. Let's see why that doesn't work so if all you did was missed? The five best trading days in that thirty eight year period instead of ending up with six hundred sixty thousand dollars you would end up with just under four hundred and thirty thousand dollars so five trading days cost you that much if you missed ten so we're only talking about two weeks two business weeks here. Ten days your ten thousand only turned into three hundred and eighteen hours. Cut It in half if you miss the best thirty trading day so one month worth of trading days. It's only one hundred and twenty-five thousand if you miss the best fifty days in that thirty eight year cycle your ten thousand turned into fifty seven thousand. Now here's what's interesting if you look. At how many trading days there are in a year I want to say it's like two hundred and fifty two something like that. You multiply that thirty. There's something like ninety five hundred trading days from somewhere in that ballpark. I think it's ninety five seventy six or something like that if you just missed fifty of those nine thousand five hundred so much as it's zero point. Five two percent zero point five two percent of all trading days. If you're not in the market could be the difference in a portfolio of six hundred sixty thousand dollars or sixty thousand dollars now the media thing that someone says. Well we'll guys you. Did this all wrong? What happens if you miss the worst trading days yeah the illustration would show something very similar? We're simply making the assessment here that you neither have the ability to miss the bet worst or miss the best but what we know is at odds. Are you're going to miss out on the best? Well you gotTA GET RIGHT TWICE. Even if you nailed this thing on the bottom and went straight to cash that recovery does happen so quickly that how do you know when to get back in? Because like I said March ninth of two thousand nine felt like every other day but that was the beginning of the end so that leads the next question that a lot of people will have is. Okay I hear you guys and I understand. That's great but this is different. This is completely different. We never experienced like this. There's a reason we're calling this a novel. Virus is because the human body. We're all susceptible this is. We don't know how this is going to flow through the population so we're in a new paradigm we're in a new period and I'm telling people look I know this is unique but this is very similar to all the downturns I've experienced in my professional career. I mean if you think about all the things have happened. The DOT COM bubble. I mean we've had a WADA geopolitical stuff. We've had nine eleven that we've had you know the the financial crisis where the wills were literally coming off the financial system that we all count on in the markets in general. You know we're for your banking or you're getting paid. It was all going bad really quick. So we've all experienced really horrible times and then I remember. Hey I've kind of been here. I remember how this is how this is felt so I felt like this is a perfect illustration to show how going through this can actually build value for you so all my younger listeners. This might be I. I just did a New York Times piece. That went out yesterday. We'll we'll make sure that that's in the link. Then people can go find. But it's four millennials. On this is the first downturn they've ever experienced as investors. How should they handle his? I'm telling you guys bottle this up because the gut feeling to her to safety is something that will serve you well for the rest of your wealth building life because this never feels good. It never fails easy to go against what you psychologically and emotionally want to do for yourself. So then you're probably saying what is this guy? No how can he be sure? This is the case. Well fortunately for you guys. I'm old I mean I no serious. I've been through some several downturns I've also before we started calling this content creation. We all know I started a podcast in two thousand six. We know the Youtube channels had success. But what people don't realize there was a term before we call it content creators. This is pre social media. We called ourselves columnist and I had the opportunity that I was writing articles for newspaper back in the early two thousands and I want you to pay attention to something here. We have it up on the screen. I Rode Egg. Young Man wrote this. I mean you. Fortunately the the pitcher is kind of the. It didn't age well when you try to transfer this to a slot but yes. I had me back in October. Third Two thousand two. So what is so important about October? Third of two thousand to that date is approximately what four days and four days from US reaching the dead bottom of the DOT com bubble. And so I wrote an this column titled What You Should Know. An uncertain market. And here's what I won't people realize I put something in this column that we're now going to go back and we have the benefit of we've lived through more. We can put what I said in that column to the test to see. Did I know what I was talking about? And Was it realistic? And is this something we can count about count on now because I do believe we will make it through this. This is something that there is going to be a lot of ben up demand. Yes this is going to have ripple effects yes? This may cause a recession. But we've been here before guys. This country is resilient we will make it through this just like we did in the past. But here's the key points I want you to understand. So this is what you said in the Article Ron. You said on average markets rise by nine point eight percent one month after the bottom of the bear market and then very pithy said if we can only know when the bottom was. Wouldn't we all be rich? Furthermore if you expand the time period to one year from the bottom of bear market the stock market's aesthetically rise. Twenty six point two percent over the subsequent twelve months words of Ryan press so two key points their first month. You have about a ten percent pop in the market. I twelve months. Twenty six point two. This was written in October. Two thousand two so we have two periods we have the DOT com bubble. Because remember I wrote this before we covered and then we have the great recession that occurred in two thousand eight and two thousand nine. Let's kind of go look. You can see those dates up on the calendar so by the end of the bear market occurred. October ninth of two thousand and two. What was the rest of the story? So the rest of the story is over. The next month market made eight point six four percent lower eight nap percent and then you can see the exact same thing in March of two thousand nine over the next month after the market bottom out it made eight and a half percent so if you're someone that just said you know what I'm going to get out on a miss this you would have missed that huge pop right there in the first month following the bottom. I mean if we were playing horseshoes that's getting you more than just one point. I mean that's leaning up against the Post. I do like to say because that's really close. So let's talk about twelve months so if we look at the next year After the DOT COM bubble burst next year the market return twenty two point one six percent over the next twelve month period. But if you look at the Great Recession. We'll talk about this in a second. The rubber band down in the next twelve months following March of two thousand nine. The market made over fifty percent. Fifty one point five one percent in the twelve months after the bottom that nobody knew it was the bottom until after we look back and said. Oh wow it was the bottom. So let's talk about those two numbers on the outside because you probably know s got the biggest variation. I'd predicted back when I wrote the column in Two Thousand and Two a twenty six point two percent recovery. We look at what happened. After the DOT COM bubble. We say well that was actually a little less twenty two point two percent but then in March of two thousand nine. That was a fifty two percent. What can account for. Is there something we can read an apply to what's going on right now and I'm telling you yes and you mentioned sure? There's what we call the rubber band effect remember markets. Recover the reason I could write a column like that. No look like I almost was reading the tea leaves are giving prophecy is that I do know markets recovering. What's called a v-shaped recovery? We don't realize when we're selling a lot of emotional stuff is going on. We just kind of throw out everything. And then there comes a point where people realize. Hey there's some value to these companies it's just you know. Apple is still go. Continue to make our phones. They don't have a leveraged balance sheet. They don't have a lot of debt. There's some value there that we're kind of throwing out on. Its ear that we ought to pay attention to so. That's how I know is very irrational. Go way down and then one day the market realizes there's some opportunities out there so you see those v-shape recovery's and we talk about. How do you know how fast you'll recover? Typically it is the rubber band effect. If you visualize pulling down a rubber band or a slingshot the further you pull it down the more tension the more energy that is developing when you let go of it just like the steepness brought it down. The steepness brings it back up you can. What is the headline that we've seen? We have reached bear market status the fastest in history. Yeah this is blown the roof off of how fast this market has reached bear bear market status that you can only think about the coiling of the energy that is probably being built up and this is one more reason why you have to be so careful with timing the market. We have a visual. That actually does even better on showing this. So let's talk about a history of mark ups and downs. So this is the S. and P. Five hundred total returns from January of Nineteen Twenty six so this even predates the great depression through December twenty seventeen so after the culmination of the great recession and you can see below the x axis in red are the downturn so we have the Great Depression we have the late the late sixties the late seventies we have the DOT com bubble bursting. We have the great recession when you look at these downturns in contrast to these subsequent bull markets that followed and you think is an investor may rather participate in or would I be willing to put up with a little bit of short term pain in order to receive the long term benefit of being an invest bull markets. We think that this picture says everything. It's not about time eating the market. It is about time in the market. If you're someone is trying to get out and time it and play it just right. The odds are you're gonNA miss some of the most exciting investment days at the markets are going to present you with so. Let's let's look at because I think Bo is spot on but I wanNA kinda create some teachable moments. Here we can see from the DOT com bubble that says that it was about a twenty twenty five months yet so that's a period. That's why when you look at the rubber band it was being pulled down but slowly. The energy was coiled. That's why when the recovery did occur is about a twenty two percent is based upon the steepness. The Link Tom. How long did it take to pull that market down to bring it back up? Whereas contrast that with the great recession which was sixteen months but it was much much steeper you can see the energy that was built on that. And that's what led to a twelve month return of about fifty one percent. You can make some some correlations to how that will likely play out in this market too so that is such a powerful thing but it does tie into and I thought it would be crazy because we do want to give you some tips and tricks on what you should be doing with your own personal finances. But how do you not look at the optimistic side of this slot? We see how much better it is to be an investor versus betting against what's going on in the economy. And how could we not do a quote from the Oracle of Omaha talking about predicting things and being accurate? There's a reason. Warren Buffett has the nickname oracle from Omaha. Let's let's kind of look at a few of his quotes. I put two slides together. Here's the first one for two and this is by the way I want to give this some context. This comes from the twenty fifteen letter to shareholders that he does for Berkshire Hathaway and realize twenty. Fifteen was not a great year to be an investor so warren every now and then in his letter to shareholders will give us a pep talk. He'll say guys it's going to be okay. Pay Attention I've been around. I've been on this earth for eighty plus years. I've watched my wealth go to eighty one billion dollars. I've learned a few things. That experience has created wisdom which? I've learned a little bit and he shares it with us. So here's this quotes. Here's the first one for two hundred and forty years. It's been a terrible mistake to bet against America and now is no time to start. America's Golden Goose of Commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs. America's social security promises will be honored and perhaps made more generous. And yes. America's kids will live far better than their parents did. I know that seems scary right now. You'll looking at what's going on you. And how is that possible? It is guys. This pizza pie is getting bigger innovation. Opportunities are out there. We just have to weather the volatility. That's come into us. And that leads to the second quote from warm same letter to shareholders moreover investors who diversify wildly widely in simply. Sit Tight our repeat that diversify wildly and simply sit tight with their holdings are certain to prosper and America gains from winning investments have always far more than offset the losses from clunkers. I mean it's it's assistant credible. During the twentieth century the Dow Jones Industrial Average and index fund of sorts soared from sixty six. That's not a Typo to eleven thousand four ninety-seven with its component companies all the while paying ever increasing dividends. There's just something to that. I mean look by the way you can see back at the end of two thousand fifteen or he was writing this probably in January February of Twenty sixteen. The Dow was at eleven thousand four ninety seven. We're sitting in the low twenties right now so even from the time that worn wrote this there was opportunities and look yes. It could come down. There could be worse days before we get to good days. But I'm telling you we are getting to the point that you need to have your plan of action to know how to survive this you know investing is like a is a really interesting thing. It's one of the few activities then. It seems like you're often rewarded more for inaction than four action the action you need to be thinking about as okay. How much am I saving? What am I saving two? Am I following the Foo? Ud focus on controlling the things that you can control and not trying to control the things that you can't control investors just like what Warren says right here get rewarded for being patient through time. So let's let's let's pivot now and talk about what you can do in this perfectly to what you just said. Great Transition Point though is that I think you first. You need to separate. What's actionable versus actionable information? I mean there's so much going on right now getting information on school finding out what you should be doing to protect your family from a health. Perspective is all actionable information. However watching the daily whip saw reactions of the stock markets and the financial markets. I would argue has reached the point of being UN actionable. Yep so you don't need to freak yourself out. This is look 'cause I'm going to get into the next steps of things you should have already done or things you should be thinking about but you are probably at the point. The best thing you can do is cut it off or or quit looking at the daily account statements. I will personally tell you. I have quit logging into my financial apple APP. That has my counts. I'm just not looking at it anymore. It's not serving any purpose. I know that it's rough out there but also I had a plan. That's good before corona virus came. It's good during Corona vars and it will be good after corona virus and that's the important part and how do I know that it's good? So here's the first thing number one double check your bridge. This is the bridge. Do you have enough. Non Risk or unrest no risk assets like bonds like cash. That you know that you have a bridge to get you over these troubled waters for the next twelve eighteen twenty four months because this will recover if you were retiring five years in the future. I I'm willing to say I think that this will probably not have as big of an impact as you think it will. This is one of those times where we've come through such a strong bull market a lot of folks. Why WOULD I hold cash? It's not even paying me. Two percent the investment markets are turning so much better. Why would I keep emerged deserves? Why would I had this right? Here is the reason if you'd have asked any of us a year ago. Hey next year. They're going to be a pandemic. That's going to send the world into a frenzy and cause the stock market decline very rapidly. None of us would have seen that coming with the folks who plan well said okay. I've got my mercy. Reserves and I have an appropriate asset allocation that takes into account my unique risk tolerance and time horizon. If you have those things in place you understand right now that this too shall pass. You shouldn't have to be making adjustments now because the plan should have been good before you started and now it's good even in midst of the craziness why I think it's one of those things where if you are looking for something you should be reviewing or something you should be taking action on. Go look at your automated automated savings and investment plan. So if you're part of a four one K. If you have a monthly savings goal that's going in. That's the part now we. We've passed the point of getting cute trying to figure out when you Tom your entry into this market. I do think you can go review all of your automated savings plans. Make sure that you're doing everything you should there. And if you are long-term say you're fifty five and younger. You know you're working and you're out there. This is a chance to go. Look at your allocation for your monthly savings as well as turning on reinvesting dividends go and be opportunistic that we don't get cute with trying to time the market but be opportunistic to make sure that your automatic investment plan is going to capitalize off of this volatility. I want to pause there for a moment. This is what Brian did say. He said be opportunistic. With how you're thinking about automated savings. This is what he did not say. Take all of your cash. Reserves there for a reason exists for reason and start putting it in the market because this is the opportunity to lifetime absolutely. Not if you're someone who wants to take advantage of the opportunity to livestock lifetime. Look at your monthly daily weekly spending or their discretionary items. You could potentially cut out on take that saved money and invest. That's great. That's fine. Do that don't start taking the emergency fund out of the Emergency Fund and putting it at risk because that's not the purpose that it's supposed to serve. Don't remove the emergency brakes as you know there's a reason we all get an elevators because this is elevators go up and down and it feels like definitely markets right now are going up and down but none of us would ever get in an elevator. We know this just a little cable. Probably no thicker than than what? I'm showing here. That's carrying all the weight. None of us would get in that elevator. We knew it didn't have a backup. Redundancy system like emergency brakes. It's the same thing with your portfolio. Here what Bowe said is that you do need to make sure you have your bridge. You have your emergency reserves. You have enough money to get you through this process. But yes I want you to look at your automated investment plan and make sure it's also reflecting that there are going to be opportunities but I liked the fact when you're doing systematic. It takes the behavior out of it. We're pass the behavioral play. Everybody who thought they were smart including ourselves with funding are our contributions are our HSA contributions for the year and we were shown that no there's more to go and he could get worse before it gets better that's why it's important to create systematic meaning removing the emotions processes that. Keep you on track to reach your goals as well as create opportunities to be that financial mutant that does get you through. This process I know led to. I kind of wanted to do this before we kind of opened up to question is. I know a lot of people right now. We appeal to do it yourself because we give you all the tools we give you all the tricks. Because that is part of the abundant cycle. Where we're go- come love on you. We want you to come absorb as much as information as you can for free. Learn apply grow reach levels success but I think there are probably a number of you out there watching this. You feel right now in this craziness. You feel like a rudderless ship. Yes you are a even big ships. You are some of these cruise liners. You built up north assets. You've had enough success but now you're like what am I doing here? I don't feel like I have a plan. I don't know that I I feel like I'm now playing catch-up arm reacting versus having a plan that's good before during and even after that's the problem. I think I said earlier. This is when you can tell either if you're a do it yourself or or you're working financial advisor who's in their minor leagues. You quickly get to see who's doing what they're supposed to. So I would encourage you if you need a rudder. This is the time to probably go figure out what your plan is. Yeah and so. I had a buddy comedy today Brian. I said Hey I'm just curious. I've heard you talk to me before about and you say like when stuff gets crazy. You shouldn't be doing anything. So are you guys really sitting around? Just doing nothing and I said absolutely not one of the things that we're doing right now for clients is we recognize that. There's an opportunity. The market is presented. Us did if you taxable investments. There's a lot of a lot of losses in there that we can go harvest so for a lot of clients without changing their allocation. We'll go harvest those losses that we know we're going to be able to use in the future offset other capital gains and potentially even ordinary income for this year as well as a number of years into the future for clients who came to us who had large embedded gain positions. Maybe it was in a company stock or something that grandma gave him fifty years ago. We weren't able to allocate away from that because the tax consequence of it now. This is allowed an opportunity where we could potentially allocate away from some of those positions so it is giving us a great opportunity to look at okay is the portfolio structured the way that we wanted to be structured not from a risk on risk off perspective. That should have been right on the front end but from a tax optimization standpoint long-term would also gives you a chance to know your why I mean what do what do we even saving this money for. What are the long term goals? What's the risk profile? What are the needs that you have in the short term if you can have somebody have essentially a beacon or that lighthouse up on the hill since we're definitely in turbulent stormy waters? That's what if you can have that. It does give you purpose. And then here's the biggest thing. Some of us are not equipped to have that worldview where we can go outside the heard and be different. So you some I mean what have we been doing the last two days riding lots of emails talking on the phone to a lot of clients making sure that we're holding their hands to understand you? We got this. We're going to make it through. Volatility is your long term friend. It's only through volatility that we can get out and do the pruning of the bushes to make sure that this tree is going to grow strong and continue to do well. I know that sounds hard. I know that even might sound colder than I wanted to. Because I get I feel your pain. I will tell you any good financial advisor right now. You might be losing sleep. But I can promise you your financial advisers losing sleep too because we all bear. The weight of how much of our clients are counting on to make it through this and went. Never feels even though I've been through this before it never never feels easier. It hurts every time I go through it but I also know this to shell pass. We will make it through these stormy waters we will have moments where we can have five again instead of just doing the the elbow that we're allowed to do right now. Those moments will come in the future but we do have to make it through this and I think we can do it. Just keep your head pay attention and by the way a lot of you guys are probably have questions. I know the government is trying to take action right now. There's legislation that's being developed. Are you know? Can you talk about that stuff? Because I even saw Bo before. The show started mushrooming. Here's my promise to you guys. We're we care so much about you as legislation passes we will do future shows where we tell you what you can do what you can learn from that how you can apply and you know how this impacts you. I am not going to get into because there's a lot of stuff on the nightly news about proposals. I think you have to be very careful because anything that is dealing with politics is going to have some weird they leak stuff here. They say stuff here. It's not actionable. It's actually noise. It can distract you. We're not going to cover stuff that I think right now is working. Its way through the political process but I can assure you as soon as we have. Actionable information we have legislation that the House the Senate has passed and the president is moments from putting his signature on. We're going to be your resource. I WANNA make sure there's so much that you want to be. I WanNa be your resource that you feel like you have a place to come to to get the information to know what to do with your family and that's probably a great lead into. Let's answer some questions. All right so we we gotta tell us just bank. Let me answer the first question somebody on your said. Hey Bo are you okay? It's not you sound kind of Netflix. This is what's going on. I was asked months ago to MC or cross fit competition past weekend and so for like eight hours. I was yelling and cheering everybody on the competition. So that's why my voice sounds that I'm actually feeling great right now. You realize how lucky you are that we're in such a unique Tom. I can't completely just beat on you. For what the state you cross fit competition. Amc There's a lot of really trying fruit there that I would love to to to utilize but I'm Gonna. I'm GonNa pass right now because it's just not the appropriate time so I wanNA give everybody a I wanNA give everybody. We're going to question someone be quick. Some we'll take a little longer. Here's the first from Donnie says. Hey I have. Cash RESERVES READY TO BUY A dip. Should I put it all in right now or dollar cost average over the next month? This is a really interesting Brian. I want to hear your thoughts but I'm going to frame question one. Should I use my mergers invest questioned? One that'll be answered quickly to. How should I think about dollar cost averaging right now and I have some thoughts on that second part? I think it's interesting. Part of me is a financial adviser. I'm always paying attention to what clients are asking where things why law because I'm trying to figure out where we are in the cycle of market emotions. I mean it just guys when I'm not only trying to give you the council. I'm also paying attention to what you say to try to here to see if there's something to glean from that. I was a little nervous over the last two weeks. Because I have had clients who were foregoing and I'm talking about clients. That were even in their seventies foregoing buying cars to To get in the market and things like that that that concerns me only from the action actually think sometimes if it was appropriate. Maybe it is a good time to do that. But does it fit into the long term. Is this more of just like his question shall take cash reserves to put into the market and Tom this thing. That's the part that gives me pause because it means we probably haven't cleanse because here's the truth of the matter is cry go get worse before it gets better because people when we're getting close to the bottom will cuss the stock market. We already getting close. I will tell you I'm getting to the point. I'm getting calls where people are custom any type of risk assets. They like. What the heck were you thinking putting us in this thing? It's too crazy but so I I would. I would caution you from getting into those emergency brake moments remember. I talked about elevators. Have Little Cables Holding lots of weight? The only reason we get into him is because we have emergency brakes. Protect us in case the cable ever breaks the cable is potentially broken. We need to have the bridge assets. The cash reserves the Fixed Income. That will get us the other side now with that said. I know that we do have people that their cash reserves. Because I I will tell you. I learned from the blast financial crisis. I'm always keep a little extra powder money I'm gonNA keep a little extra. That's above and beyond cash reserves. I don't know if I need to buy a building for the business. I don't know if I'm going to need to have this. You know always WanNa keep a little bit of extra money for that purpose. It's not considered cash reserves. I do think you can be opportunistic with that. But there's a good chance you go get it wrong from an emotional state because remember. Nobody wants to buy stocks win. There actually is the best time to buy stocks. So how do you go ahead and line yourself up for success? I would recommend creating a systematic plan. Yes so I'll tell you. For instance let me give you two examples of some things. I'm doing. His eye of everybody knows I'm on an aggressive. Pay Down my mortgage for the next five years I was going to have my house paid off over the last month. I have changed now. I'm paying back to the normal mortgage but I have increased. My dollar cost averaging on my monthly systematic plan to account for that also monthly investments dollar cost averaging. I've increased that and made sure I find tuned it. I think you can do the same thing. Yes dollar cost average over the next few months because more than likely. If you're trying to just go off your gut your gut will be wrong. There's a reason to heard Mrs the recovery's and also misses the opportunities because your gut will likely be wrong. Systematic investing is going to be your friends. I agree with that full full now. I want to talk to other side of the coin because I've actually seen a lot of this right. Someone say hey. I'm sitting on like here's a great question from Coal Lewis. He said if we're sitting some of money earmarked for investing. When should we put it into the market or would you recommend putting it on the principle of the house? Well the quite. That's a pretty easy question. If you're under forty five and you think about what the mortgage rate of your mortgage is versus. What the army dollar bills can do for you. Odds are probably tilts in favor of building your army of dollar bills getting that invested. So then the question becomes okay. How do I approach that? And I'm having folks all the time that are saying to me. Hey I know we're on this dollar. We put together this plan and it was great. Now we're going to cost average into the market but man. The markets getting hammered right now. Should we accelerate that and so the thought is? There's nothing wrong with adjusting your plan. But here's what we don't know. What if this is just the beginning of the downturn and you decide you know what I'm Exceleron? All my dollar cost averaging into today's person to buy everything today or last week or last week's purchase or the week before because all of them looked attractive. Two weeks ago it looked attractive and last week it looked attractive and this week it looked attractive and realistic terms ten years from now. It probably won't make an huge difference which week you've got in but behaviorally will you be able to stand it if you put all of your money in now and this thing drops another fifteen twenty thirty percent. We don't know what's going to happen but the reason that we even do things like dollar cost. Averaging strategies is to remove the emotion from it. Remember to emotions when it comes to investing. There is fear and greed. We try to dollar cost average to remove both of those so that we don't get it wrong so for example. What Brian said and I think this is beautiful. If you want to change your dollar cost averaging strategy don't just pull everything into this current period maybe increase it if I'm thinking about dollar cost averaging ten thousand dollars a month maybe the change on make isn't that I invest fifty thousand dollars today. It's I increase it to like twelve thousand dollars a month or something like that because you most people try to time the market on the get out. Well now. We're seeing people trying to time the market on the get in. Maybe you're right. Maybe you're not the reason that we put plans and strategies in place is to prevent us from being one hundred percent right but to also prevent us from being a hundred percent wrong. I think investing creates inevitable wealth because remember wealth creation of wealth creation is simple not necessarily easy so the systematic plan protects. You from yourself because you will your behavior. Your emotions will be your worst enemy. Volatility is healthy. You just have to make it through it but also balanced. I mean. That's the thing. Is that wearing unique? Tom's here protect your family from a health perspective but also make sure you're not making emotional decisions from a financial perspective. So here's one this has. This is from a meat. He says I'm going to thirty percent tax bracket is this a good time to switch 401k contributions to a Roth 401k? I get company match for both currently maxing out using a traditional 401k. I'm going to reframe his question to see if I can get to the root of it. Hey Brian in light of the volatility in light of what's going on should that affect my decision to put money in pre-tax or roth or is there something bigger that affects that that's not market volatility? Because we stay pretty steadfast on this on this this guidance I understand what his question is. If things essentially have a twenty percent off coupon right now wouldn't it be great to get those assets in tax free Roth and then as we slingshot forward? You'll have all that recovery in tax free growth and and that's great and that might lead you to. Here's what I think is great about the gardens we've given in the past and you can apply to this too. We think if you are in a marginal rate that is less than twenty five percent and you're young especially ball means go. Ross we do give you grey zone coverage of twenty five to thirty percent if you add your federal plus your state income taxes to twenty five to thirty percent. You're kind of in that gray zone. Yeah by all means you choose. Should you be pre-tax? Should YOU BE AFTER-TAX OF TAX? Free like Roth it might be. You could take this into consideration. This is now a new variable. Is that you've got a depressed financial markets. Yeah maybe that now pushes you more towards tax free growth than it does pre tax deduction but I think I still stand by the fact that once you're into the higher tax brackets brackets of the thirties greater than thirty one percent. For sure you might be looking at. Yeah there's still a great tax benefit to getting the deduction So I still think that stands up. I do think that because everything we do for clients as the one thing. That's a little harder doing a podcast and a youtube channel. Is We try to give you guys information that works for everybody but everybody has different ages. Different wise different risk profiles and different goals. So you do have to kind of you got internalize that our work with your adviser to make sure the the gardens were giving because this is is General Information. You have to figure out how that works for you personally. I don't mean to put a disclaimer. Answer a question with a question but I do think this shows the nuances or the facets that go into financial decision making it needs to be paid attention to as well love it. Let's do another question. This was actually nuts and bolts for an accountant. So I think this is this not hard. This is from John Neighbor. He said hey any tips to offer for those of US tax laws harvesting to help avoid wash sales now. I didn't recognize until started telling this friend about what we were doing for our clients right now that the term tax laws harvesting is not just something that everyone knows so let me explain very easily what that is if you have an investment investment acts and it goes down ten percent. One of the things that you can do is you can sell. Investment acts and immediately go by Investment. Why assuming they're materially different and then when investment why goes up. You're in the exact same position theoretically depending on how investment but what you do is by selling that one investment what is down you get to lock in those losses. Which sounds counterintuitive. Until you think about how your tax on capital gains you have capital losses. They can offset capital gains that. You recognize either this year or in future years so loss harvesting does it change the investment strategy. It just changes your tax situation. Well there are some rules around tax laws harvesting and the one that he specifically asking about is the wash sale rule. I cared talk about. What a Washington. Ill is wash so just means that. If you bobby back something you're taking a loss on the government does make you. You have to offset some of the losses you took for the purchase. So I don't think it necessarily. I think you have to be aware of wash sale rules so that you don't you know completely sabotaged the loss harvesting but in relative terms a Lotta Times. The loss harvest is so big the Yes if there is a short term wash sell. I don't think it doesn't blow up the whole strategy you can just measure the materiality of that month's purchase compared to the washer taking but then also just be aware because there's so many opportunities going on right now this is like. I said this is not a United States problem. This is a global problem. So you can be strategic with how you what you're buying into on a systematic basis to. I mean what additional would you add to it? I thought that was great. The thing you can't do as you can't have apple stock and it's down and you want to sell it. You can't go buy apple stock again but if you had apple stock and it was down you wanted to go buy some competitors some different stock. That was different than you can do that. Well if you're an index or an ETF investor. You might think okay. Well can I go by the S. and P. Five hundred and sell it and go buy it again? That's probably going to be a wash. Obviously you want to seek the guidance and professional tax payer account so you just have to make sure that the thing that you're buying is materially different enough that it doesn't trigger those wash total market index you sold the S. and P. Five hundred and then bought a total market index. You you're you're allowing yourself to harvest the loss but also diversifying enough that you stay out of the the wash sale rules okay. Here's a great when this is from actually a friend of the show this from Darryl Crowe Darryl said hey beyond staying the course do you differentiate between those who are net buyers of investments for the foreseeable future and those who are in retirement and living off of their investment bombings? That's a great question. Here's a here's the reality of it and we've noticed this with our clients are younger clients. Look there mark. Volatility does reflect the market that we're in because if you're somebody who's in their thirties forties even early fifties. Your portfolio is more reflective on the fact that you're not going to need assets. Your Bridge is really a bridge over a puddle. Because you have no you can just step over the puddle. There's no reason to create a ton of conservative stuff in there so we are seeing clients that if you're younger you're aggressive just like the markets but a lot of you guys already financial mutant so you're trying to figure out how this is going to benefit you in the long-term since it's probably will create some value opportunities but darryl is exactly right that our older clients who are actually approaching retirement. The next five years or have already hit retirement. Now we replenish their cash flow and essentially create a retirement direct deposit for them. We already had this built into the plant. I mean 'cause that's why you need to do your planning on the front end so you don't have to be reactionary. The first thing I do when I get a concern call from a client is remind them if we add up their cash their fixed income and then any other conservative because we have a few other conservative type holdings we own Adam all up and then I divided by what their burn rate is for the last three the average of the last three years because every over three years you might have car purchases you have monthly expenses and usually I think it shocks clients like I had a phone call yesterday. I said you will be okay for the next sixteen years. I mean because she was concerned. We have your bridges so long that you're protected for sixteen years so let's not panic on the risk on asset because we need to give them time to recover. That's why you did create a bridge so yes jail you're right. We do for older clients or people in this is for you guys out there watching to if you're counting on these assets that's why we talk about. You have to have the bridge over the troubled waters when you're younger. That bridge looks more like you stepping over a puddle. You don't need much of a bridge all but when you know you're going to be in needing to live off these assets over the next eighteen months two years you need to have that money in some type of form you can get to because remember investing. This is something that I have to remind. People constantly don't put anything in the financial markets that you can't leave there for five to seven years. I think when markets make money year over year and we had one of the longest bull markets in history because it went from two thousand nine. Let it rest in. Peace and twenty twenty. That is a huge. That's over a decade that this bull market ran and sometimes when you get into long extended bull markets people. Just think this thing is like setting o'clock and you set the time or you forget and it's just gonNa grow like a cake in the oven. That's not the way financial markets work. They go up and down. So you need to respect the volatility and respect that the holding period on long term assets needs to be five to seven years. If you have something that you need money twelve months eighteen months a wedding like a down payment on a house. Don't get crazy. Don't get cute. That's where you get yourself in trouble. The next question asks now. This isn't a specific question. But I'm seeing it thematically throughout our chat so I'm just GonNa go ahead and kind of address it it's generalists idea about around like rebalancing how should I rebalance should I be thinking about rebalancing and the answer is yes this volatility does give us an opportunity to look at rebalancing what that means is making changes that we would have made otherwise but we could not because of tax circumstances cashflow circumstances whatever that may be. Here's what rebalancing does not look like if you're if you're in a thirty seventy portfolio before this thing started you do not need to rebalance to a seven thirty portfolio now. That's not the way. That rebalancing works your allocation should be fairly consistent over time what rebalancing does is it tweaks the slices of Pie Right. You've ever seen somebody like cut a pie. Like one person uses a knife and but someone else. My wife's uses a fork so then I had to come in with a knife to make sure the edges straight. What rebalancing allows you to do your portfolio's make sure that the edges are straight. You're not just digging in and changing the composition of the pie so I wanted to make sure I clarify because we speak in terms when you say thirty seventy you're talking about thirty percent in risk assets meaning like extra growth seventy percent off risk or shore -servative and you said going from thirty thirty seventy meaning thirty percent wrist. Seventy percent off to a seventy thirty seventy risk thirty off limits. That's yes that might be opportunistic but it also might not tie into your goals. You know your risk profile because remember. This could get worse before it gets better. We do not want to underplay that. There's a lot of crazy stuff going on. So that's why you're planning your bridge over. Troubled waters has to get you through whatever this economy. This pandemic throws your way. This was from it says AAC how but I'm sure I'm mispronouncing. That's probably like echo or something. Sorry a cow if pronounce it wrong. Should I rush to buy a house with such a low interest rate right now even if it means? I don't have a good down payment less than ten percent. I'm going to reframe this. Should I go make a huge gigantic life? Decision solely because interest rates are low. Right now I do think that that creates a lot of pressure that people put on themselves. And you think that this is the. Here's the first question now. Look this is this is this is some tea leaves but also requires a little bit of what's been happening over the last month. A An interesting thing happened over the last two to three weeks We all know mortgage rates are tied to the ten year Treasury. That's when you're when you're watching mortgage rates and you're trying to figure out if you're locking in or letting it ride. You're always watching the ten year treasury. Well we had something very unique happen that you don't see happen with the mortgage market is banks because the demand was already there because remember. This economy was humming. I mean we're getting jobs. Reports that are best in history. Everything's cranking a lot of houses are being built a lot of people in line to close on houses because we're quickly approaching spring win you know is usually a jumping housing market banks basically said when when ten year treasuries went to zero pretty much bank said you know what we're not going to honor that relationship that's always occurred. We'RE GONNA we've got enough business coming in thank you but no we're Nike thank you. We're we'RE NOT GONNA do that. So you actually saw interest rates on mortgages not go down with the ten year treasury. They actually spiked up. And here's what is this is why the Federal Reserve I do think. What does the government done is? They've announced that they're going to do. They've lowered interest rates. They dropped them to pretty much zero and then they also unleashed quantitative easing. Meaning that they are going to be putting a lot of liquidity into the markets that quantitative easing will hopefully help on the standpoint that we'll get back to more traditional where the ten year treasury does reflect is impacting. The market's a little bit because of the quantitative easing. But I wouldn't count completely that you're going to get a two and a half percent thirty year mortgage. I do think that we've had discussions with our bond. Traders is that there are going to come times where people just from a business risk. Don't WanNA carry that. But that's the history lesson now. Let's get to the action report. What is a house because it don't you have to be very careful making long-term big life changing decisions for something for a short term event that we're all experiencing right now in houses a type of transaction that I would say if you're not going to be in that house for just like an investment five to seven years what are you doing. I mean this is not something that if you think you're going to move in this house be out of it in three years just because there's an opportunity right now. You have to be very careful having reaction just like you would not want to react with how your portfolio looks. You don't WanNA react to be hit with your behavior now. If you know you're buying a house you have your keeping with the money guy. Rules of keeping housing expenses below twenty five percent and I would means a lot of benefits. The Homeownership Carter. Who's one of our principals here? He's building a brand new house. Bow just closed on a house in less than two months ago. So I mean there's a lot to home ownership in this. Maybe this works to your favor. Did you get a great long-term rate but just make sure the why matches up to your goals your risk profile and you know and all that stuff comes into play instead of just letting it be a knee jerk reaction buying a big long term holding. You'll find out it's very illiquid so it means the line up nicely okay all right here we go. This one is from family videos. That sounds like a nice. That's a nice name. Is it time to aggressively? Do Roth conversions for my pre age. Seventy to post retirement payment. Parents somebody answer that two ways. That's a great question question. Number one is doing aggressive. Roth conversions post-retirement pre seventy two a sound strategy. Yeah there's a lot of opportunity in there if you can play the income tax game it might make sense for you to accelerate income into the current years convert. Ira dollars into Roth dollars. Four One K. dollars into RAF dollars at relatively low tax brackets tax rates. Now so that at age seventy two. You're armed. These aren't as large essentially way to prepay the tax. Get to RMB's down. Is that a sound strategy. Yes does the current market environment current market volatility effector impact. That likely. Not because this is more of a tax planning discussion tax planning question than an investment market planning discussion. Now if your parents are someone who were forced into early retirement or their income changed significantly because the volatility. Then perhaps there's some opportunity but I would not start changing financial strategy solely because of volatility. Right now that is a sound strategy. But it doesn't need to be because of what's going on now is because it was a sound strategy a year ago or six months ago or three months ago and it will still be a sound strategy six months from now nine months from now a year from now I want. This isn't a different take. It's just adding a few more facets to to what needs to be considered I do we have a number of clients that are doing Roth. Conversion strategies because it's not uncommon. Somebody retires when they're fifty five years old. They're they go from a high income situation to a very low income situation so it makes sense to maximize lower tax rates with a roth convergence. Reggie exactly and that's the people that are doing that. We have clients every year doing roth conversions because and. I think this is the crux of the question or the theme. That's there is that now that we know markets are off twenty five to thirty percent. Is this a great Tom? While the values are down the value of that conversion is really powerful because the the principals get been compressed when you convert now Wada potential alike that process. Here's the only thing because I've had conversations with you. I've had a conversation with Carter. We do want to do that with clients and for people that they know without a doubt that we're walking in this much of a Roth conversion now the problem I see is we have a group of clients every year because of the affordable. Care Act. They're trying to keep their income below a threshold to make sure that they don't trigger. Medicare surcharges or even the ACA. The duck deduction their premiums. There's a lot of things at play. I would caution you and this is what Bo was getting to make sure it is a sound strategy while you have the principal. Compressed you can. You can get a lot of potential converted into a Roth where hopefully it will grow in a tax free fashioned in the future when we hit recovery. Just make sure you're not overdoing this way too early. And this tax year that you screw up at our have unintended consequences with your medicare premiums or your deductability. There's a lot of. There's a Lotta things the affordable care act. You have to pay Joe saying so. Just make sure you're doing you have to take into account all variables. This is wise financial. Planner I get so nervous about giving this type of specific advice is because typically a lot of variables that go into Roth conversion strategy so you would make the argument if you're someone who is entertaining doing this strategy or if you're someone who is thinking about encouraging your parents to do this sort of strategy perhaps it makes sense to seek the guidance of a professional to make sure you are accounting for all of those variables slowly. The taxability is social security. A lot of people. They get so excited. That they're in these low tax brackets. They do the Roth conversions and then they find out. Oh my goodness now. My social security is taxed at eighty. Five percent Medicare have gone up the affordable care. Act Premiums are no longer deductible all that stuff needs to be taken to an accountant to a cohesive plan but yes the nature of the question is this is an incredible time to be looking at Roth conversions. Just make sure if no blind spots that are going to derail this awesome opportunity so here. Here's the last one and this is just one. That's kind of kind of real so it's kind of an interesting interesting one to land with because we know that we are uncertain times and we don't know how we don't know how this is going to go. We don't know how long it's GonNa go. We really don't know the true financial implications of it yet right. So we're staying abreast of that. So this guys. Hey How would you recommend? Someone's Investment Strategy Change if they get laid off during this time right and the engine. That question is sometimes life throws US curve balls. That aren't expected like right now. We are in a Black Swan Market Environment. Economy event but those sorts of things happen in our lives as well. Sometimes things happen. That are outside of our control that we just can't plan for the unknown unknowns. The things that you can do is if you are someone who's in an industry that perhaps is getting very hard getting hit very hard by what's going on right now economically or you're someone who's concerned that maybe my job is at risk now. Probably is that time that you do need to be shoring up? Even additional cash reserves where. The normal three to six months might make sense in normal times. Maybe now you do have to increase that and perhaps yeah you might be walking away from some investment opportunity if you have to stop all that cash instead of putting into investments but at the end of the day if you're in that sort of circumstance you have to make sure that you follow the order of operations the right way and other top issue that order is make sure you have appropriate mercy reserves will very unique times like this. You're appropriate emergency reserve. Might be different than it is at other times. It goes back to you. You said it in financial order of operations respecting the flu. You GotTa have that that bridge over troubled waters you. GotTa have the cash reserves. You gotTA HAVE THE OFF RISK ASSETS. That will get you through this so if you are one of those people that is a man. I feel for you. We say prayers for you because I think that is the that is the unfortunate thing that will come out of this. I think I am and I'm I'm hopeful that it will be short term because I think this feels more like a natural disaster. It's not like there's a systemic issue that derailed this economy so hopefully. It's a very short term thing but I would encourage everybody be proactive with your finances. Just like you or figuring out what you're GONNA do for your family to to keep them safe to keep them from the corona virus. You also want to be doing that with your financial life. And if you know you're in an industry that could be impacted Do the steps now look into it and Don't Overcut I. Would you know because I think that this is a tom and I think it just happens? Naturally I had a few more phone calls a conscious they say. What should I do this? You know? And and a lot of the big purchases some of the vacation so much stuff all the discretionary control. You have you're trying to get your footprint to be as small as possible so that when you then do the measurement of what you need to make it through this this this dark period. You're not having to completely cut out all of your growth assets but you are being realistic with yourself to make sure you once again. Have that bridge over troubled waters to get you to safer ground. Here's our committee you guys. We're going to stay on top of this thing we're going to keep monitoring or keep washing it right now. We're consuming as much information as we can so that we can shuffle through it and provided you guys great insight if you're out there and you have not subscribed to the youtube channel. That's going to be the best way to stay in touch with us so that we can let you know when new videos come out when this livestream was a plan we decided. Hey we're vacations got cancelled. We probably GONNA be in the. We ought to talk to the people if you're subscribed if you ring the bell to get notifications that's how you're going to stay on top of the information to share with you if you haven't gone out to our website go to money. Guide DOT COM. Go to a resource page. We have tons of resources out there that you can use even right now to show you how powerful your money can be things to think about from a tax perspective. What millionaires look like all kinds of resources that you can use to reset and rebound you in some of these uncertain times and I know look everybody here is getting an education in. What is it looked like to go through a volatile market and this is something that will serve you well for the rest of your life but just will be your resource guys. We'RE GONNA keep coming to you as we get more legislation as we get more updates. We'll try to protect you. But in the meantime I'm telling you go pay attention to the daily press releases. Protect your family from a health perspective. I understand there's a lot of nervousness out there I I get that so take care of your family. We WanNa keep our older citizens especially people who have underlying health conditions but that does not necessarily mean that you have to do an apple cart turnover on your entire financial life because reactionary reacting during bad times sometimes can lead to some long term negative consequences. I don't want you to make a permanent decision on a short term problem that derails your long term solution so definitely pay attention to what's going on tune in exactly what Bowe said go to money dot com. Go to youtube subscribe you know? Give us your email address. We'll keep you up to date on what's going on and we just care about you guys. I will tell you that this is. This is not likely I mean. This is one of those things we've had two. We've always known that they were going to there was going to be a downturn. Didn't know it was going to be a Black Swan of cove. Nineteen that it would be something that would put the entire world in upheaval. But we'll make it through this if you think back through mankind and think about all the horrible things that have gone on between look this is not the plague but a mankind has survived the plague. This is not a terrorist attack where we have people just blowing up stuff but we'll make it through this and it's just like I do feel like the world will get through this. We'll look back. They'll write a lot of books. They'll write a lot of articles on it. But you just need to be equipped to handle this yourself. We're GONNA continue to be a resource. We care for you tremendously. We WanNA be your partner to get you through this so you feel like you can cut through the noise and know the best things you can do for your family. I'm your host Brian Preston. Mr Bo Hansen money team. We're going to be there for you. The money guy show hosted by Bryant Preston about wealth management is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with the securities laws and regulations abound wealth management does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the money guys show the information provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial tax investment or legal advice.

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Buried by the Wall Street Crash

Cautionary Tales

37:20 min | 1 year ago

Buried by the Wall Street Crash

"As the night draws in and the fire blazes on the half we warn the children by telling them stories. Cinderella teaches them. That if you want to leave the party early leave your phone number rather than a piece of designer footwear. But my stories for the education of the grown-ups stories all true. Tim Harford Gabar close. And listen to my cautionary tales Late One evening on the twentieth of December nineteen fifty four. A small group of people sat together in a living room in oak park a suburb of Chicago. Waiting for the end of the world they were led by a woman named Dorothy Martin. Who's a conduit for messages from aliens? Will God or both the messages were alarming at midnight. The aliens would land a flying saucer in the backyard and convey the true believers to the safety of a planet named Clarion then that door a cataclysmic flood would destroy much of the world now at five minutes to midnight. The believers were waiting. Some were disheveled. Since the aliens had demanded they remove all metal from their clothing. Brock lips bottoms even trousers. It had been hastily. Slashed away by fumbling hands wielding scissors raises some of the group with air out of mere curiosity. Others had sacrificed almost everything for this moment that quit their jobs given away their possessions and said farewell to their families. But what distinguishes this particular apocalyptic cult from all the others is that a small team of social scientists led by the world renowned psychologist. Leon festinger had managed to infiltrate it. They were there to witness what happened at midnight and in particular how the group reacted to the appearance or possibly the non appearance of the aliens gathered around. And I'll tell you another for Sri Times I'll tell you all about what happened with Leon. Festinger Dorothy Martin and the aliens in due course but for a moment. Let's leave them there in Chicago anxiously waiting for the end of days because I have another story to tell you then. It's not a story about crazy cult members but about two economists. Indeed two of the most celebrated economists who ever lived and what these economists have to do with a ufo cult nineteen fifties Chicago. It's very simple just like Dorothy mountain. They tried to see into the future and trying to see into the future. It's a dangerous business. One of the economists. I won't tell you about is the great British polymath. John May Not Canes. You may have heard of him. He's a colossal figure in economics. Overturning the ideas that had gone before him and then reshaping the post war economic system. Many economists still hold themselves Keynesians. Like him or hate him in economics. You can't get much bigger than John Maynard. Keynes except that in his day you could. When canes I strode the world stage he did so in the shadow of another man in nineteen twenty four. The Wall Street Journal tried to describe John Maynard. Keynes this up and coming economist. They reached for comparison that everyone in America would've known Keynes said. The Journal was England's serving Fisher and Irving Fisher was the most famous economist on the planet. But having Fisher wasn't just more famous than Keynes he was brilliant as warm Nobel Prize Winner. Put IT. Fuzhou was anywhere from decades. Dude Asians hit of his time. Some would say he was the greatest economist who ever lived. But if you're thinking I don't hear much about Irving Fisher these days. You're right. He's not the household name. He was one hundred years ago. If you're wondering why. His reputation faded while Keynes's lived on. That is what our cautionary tale is all about. Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes. We're very different men in some important ways but they also had a great deal in common. Both were stars at their universities canes at Cambridge in England Fisher at Yale they will both physically impressive. Canes was thin and very tall with piercing eyes. Fisher had the broad chest of a competitive rower. They were both skilled writers charismatic speakers to after witnessing canes giving a speech the Canadian diplomat Douglas Lapan was moved to write. I am spellbound. This is the most beautiful creature I have ever listened to does. He belong to our species or is he from some other order and Fisher and canes also both active investors. They weren't just ivory tower economists but men who believed that their mastery of economics would enable them to make profitable investments that is where the interest in forecasting came in an academic economist might be contents to describe and explain the economy's past but to make money in canes would have to catch a glimpse of the economy's future. Let's meet the Young Irving Fisher. How much there is I want to do. I always feel that I haven't time to accomplish what I wish I want to read much. I want to write a great deal. I want to make money. He's writing from Yale to an old school friend. Money was important Fisher. His father had died of tuberculosis the very week that irving had arrived at Yale. The young man needed to scramble for funds throughout his studies. He understood what it wants to struggle financially. While surrounded by wealth at the age of Twenty Six however Fisher found himself with a small fortune at his disposal. He'd married a childhood playmate. Margaret has it he was the daughter of a wealthy industrialist irving and Margaret's wedding was sumptuous enough to be covered by the New York Times with two thousand invited guests three ministers and extravagant lunch and a wedding cake weighing sixty pounds. They commenced a fourteen month European and turned to a brand new mansion in new haven. It had been built in their absence. As a wedding. Present from Margaret's father was furnished with a library. A music room and spacious offices. If marrying your childhood sweetheart sounds a little too wholesome. I'm just getting started. There are three things you need to know about everything fisher. The first is that he was a health fanatic. He abstained from alcohol. Tobacco meat tea coffee and chocolate one. Dinner guest enjoyed his hospitality. While noting his quirkiness I right through my succession of delicious courses. He dined on a vegetable and a raw egg. He founded the life Extension Institute and persuaded. William Taft who just stepped down as president to be its chairman in one thousand nine hundred fifteen. When he was nearly fifty years old he published a book titled How to Live. How to live? Now that some real ambition. It was a huge bestseller freakonomics of its day and from a modern perspective. It's hilarious. I advocate a son bath commonsense must dictate its intensity and duration. It is important to practice thorough massification chewing to the point of natural involuntary swallowing. He even adds a discussion of the correct angle between the feet. While walking about seven or eight degrees of towing in each foot and there's a short section on eugenics which really hasn't aged well but while it's easy to laugh how to live is in many ways as far ahead of its time as fishes economic analysis describing exercises preaching mindfulness and at a time when the majority of doctors were smokers correctly warning that tobacco causes cancer. The second thing you need to know about irving was that he believed in the power of rational quantified analysis in the modern. Study of scientific clothing. There is a new unit. The CLO- This is a technical unit for measuring warming. Power of clothing. There's also the money that's the third thing you need to know. Having Fisher was rich and not just because of his wife's inheritance making money was a matter of pride for Fisher there. Were the book royalties from how to. Live. There were his inventions most notably a forerunner of the ROLODEX. Away of organizing business cards. He sold that invention to a stationary company for six hundred sixty thousand dollars in cash. Many millions of dollars in today's terms Fisher turned his academic research into a major business. Operation called the Index Number Institute. It sold data forecasts and analysis as syndicated package to newspapers across the United States. He called it. Irving Fisher's business page with such a platform Fisher was able to evangelize about his approach to investment which broadly speaking was to bet on American growth by buying shares in the new industrial corporations using borrowed money. Such burrowing is called leverage since it magnifies both profits and losses but during the nineteen twenties stock market. Investors had few losses to worry about share. Prices were soaring Fisher wrote to his old childhood friend to inform him that he's I'm Bishen had been fulfilled. We are all making a lot of money in the summer of Nineteen Twenty Nine Irving Fisher was a bestselling author inventor data. Pioneer friend of presence entrepreneur health campaigner syndicated columnist and the greatest academic economists of his generation. And in that summer of one thousand nine hundred ninety nine a millionaire. Many Times over Irving Fisher was able to boast to his son that a renovation of the family mansion had been paid for not by the hazard family money but by Irving Fisher himself that achievement matter to him. Fisher's own father hadn't lived to see his seventeen year. Old Boy grow into one of the most respected figures of the age as irving and his son watched a mansion reshaped before them he could perhaps be forgiven pride. This episode is brought to you by the new podcast go and see hosted by our very own Malcolm Dodwell produced by the team behind revisionist history go and seek is a six part series focused on Alexis philosophy of Ganci again butson which means teeth yourself an idea that stem list from the belief that if you experience something yourself you have a better understanding people how to create something Ford in a series. Lexus invites Malcolm to Japan. Discover that unconventional thinking and processes firsthand find out. How a Japanese tea ceremony influenced the engineering of a car window. How the sound of an engine is like a musical composition elicit certain emotions how Understanding Samurai warriors is led to a suspension innovation? Malcolm loans that no detail is left behind and that a car company and learn more about my studying people go inside lexuses headquarters in Japan ride along on a top secret test track with a master driver. Sit in the expertly designed seat that actually lowest to welcome you into the vehicle. Follow Malcolm on his journey. Starting March the fifth. Have you liked to listen? Visit LEXUS DOT com slash curiosity more stories. Like these John Maynard. Keynes was the ultimate insider as a schoolboy. He was educated at Eton College. Just like Britain's first prime minister and nineteen of since like his father. He became a senior academic. A fellow of King's College. The most spectacular of all Cambridge colleges his job during the first world. War was managing both debt and currency on behalf of the British Empire. He'd barely turned thirty. He knew everyone he whispered. In the ear of prime ministers he had the inside track on whatever was going on in the British economy. May Not Bank of England here just wanted to let you know that interest rates will be rising Tamara Champ but this child of the British establishment was a very different person to his American rival. Irving Fisher. He loved fine wines enrich food. He gambled monte-carlo is sex. Life was more like a nineteen seventies pop star in nineteen hundreds economist bisexual. Poly-amorous eventually settling down. Not with his childhood sweetheart but with Russian Ballerina. One of Keynes's ex-boyfriends was the best man at their wedding. And Canes was adventurous in other ways to in one thousand nine hundred eighty nine for example as the first World War was raging and the German army was camped outside Paris canes caught wind of the fact that in Paris the Great French impressionist artist at Garda Guy was about to auction his vast collection of pieces by franz his greatest nineteenth century painters and so- canes embarked on an Insane Adventure. I he spoke to the Chancellor of the Exchequer the UK's senior Treasury minister asking for a phone for purchasing art twenty thousand pounds. That's millions in. Today's money may not the first occasion that I've ever known you in favor of any expenditure. John won't so ever remember. The British Treasury was four years into fighting the most devastating war the planet yet seen the Canes New House against his way my picture coup was a whirlwind affair carried out in a day and a half before anyone had time to reflect on bought. They were doing. I think the chance was very much amused at my wanting to buy pictures. And eventually let me have my way as a sort of a joke. Some joke escorted by destroyers and a silver ship watching overhead canes crossed the channel firms with the director of London's National Gallery who shaved off his moustache so that nobody recognized him and just as dagoes auction begins the German artillery starts up some people panic and hurry out Canes Pounces Buying Twenty seven pieces at rock bottom prices for the National Gallery. Andy buys a few for himself. Including Suzanne which these days would be regarded as a better by than anything the National Gallery director chose it costs canes just three hundred seventy pounds then flee back to the English Channel and Cross home with a convoy of hospital ships exhausted after his nonstop adventure canes calls in on some friends. I've got in my suitcase. It was too heavy to carry. So I've left it in the ditch behind the gate. What Irving Fisher would have made it at all? I do not know yet like Fisher. Keynes was also pursuing an investment career. It wasn't just an art. He set up what some historians described as the first hedge fund to speculate on currency movements. He raised money from rich friends. And from his own father to whom he made the not entirely reassuring comment when all those this high stakes. Gambling amuses me. Initially canes made money fast but then a brief spasm in the currency markets wiped out his phoned in nineteen twenty awkward but he went back taste investors including his own father and asked them to trust him with more of that money. I am not in a position to risk any capital myself. Having quite exhausted my resources remember. This is John Maynard. Keynes the man who swayed a wartime government to speculate in a Parisian auto auction. The man a Canadian diplomat mistook for an angel. I anticipate very substantial profits with very good probability if you are prepared to stand the racket for a couple of months of course. They gave him the money he wanted. Canes was back in profit by nineteen twenty two so having made a small fortune lost it and made it again. Canes turned to the vast investments of his own college king's Cambridge Canes persuaded his fellow academics to let him adopt a radical making strategy. He would forecast booms and recessions and move in and out of different economic sectors accordingly. Such an approach makes sense. Only if you actually can forecast recessions. But Canes was the leading economists in the country and a man who remember would get friendly phone calls from the Bank of England if anyone could see into the future of the British economy it was John Maynard. Keynes by late nine thousand nine hundred thousand nine both Irving Fisher and John Maynard. Keynes were rich famous respected and standing on the brink of a financial precipice. The Cataclysmic Wall Street crash followed by the Great Depression. The worst peacetime economic calamity to befall the Western world on the two greatest economists of the Age Fishe and Canes. Both of them failed to see it coming. Experts don't have stellar reputation for forecasting in one eighty-seven the young canadian-born psychologist named Philip. Tedtalk became curious about the entire prognostication racket. Tet Lock had been interviewing Cold War experts and he soon found himself frustrated by their wildly different predictions their refusal to change their minds when they were wrong and the endless excuses for their forecasting failures. Tech's response was patient. Painstaking and quietly brilliant. He began to collect forecasts from almost three hundred. Experts eventually accumulating twenty seven thousand five hundred predictions. He focused on politics and geopolitics throwing in a few questions from areas such as economics. Ted Talk sought clearly defined questions enabling him with the benefit of hindsight to pronounce each forecast right or wrong. Then Ted lock simply waited while the results rolled in eighteen years Ted lock published his conclusions in two thousand and five. In a subtle and scholarly book expert political judgment found that his experts were terrible forecasters both in the simple sense that what they predicted often didn't happen. And in the D percents that the experts had little idea of when they should be confident and when they should admit that they didn't have a clue. Expert forecasts were barely more accurate than chimpanzees throwing darts most people hearing about Ted talks research simply conclude that either the world is too complex to forecast or the experts are too stupid to forecast it or both on April Fools Day in twenty thirteen full days. I received an email from Philip deadlock inviting me to join what he described as a major new research program it was funded by the. Us intelligence services. This program continued and expanded. Tet Locks look study in the form of a full costing tournament. You would simply log onto a website. Give your best judgement about matters. You may be following anyway and that judgment if and when you feel it should be when time passes and forecasts are judged you could compare your results with those of others. More than twenty thousand people signed up some professionals and some amateurs and his colleagues ran experiments on this army of volunteers giving them different kinds of training or assembling them into teams to see if that helped. I didn't join in a told myself I was too busy. I suppose I was chickening out too but the fundamental reason that I didn't participate was because Ted talks work had already persuaded me that the forecasting task was impossible. But it wasn't. This vast new tournament identified a select group of people whose forecasts while by no means perfect. Were vastly better than the dog. Throwing CHIMP STANDARD. Ten o'clock with an uncharacteristic touch of hyperbole called them super forecasters so what makes a super forecaster the super forecasters a what psychologists call actively open minded thinkers people who didn't cling to tightly to a single approach who were comfortable abandoning an old view in the light of fresh evidence so new arguments and who embraced disagreements with others as an opportunity to learn the secret of super forecasting. It's a willingness to change your mind. Philip Tet locks work on super forecasting has rightly attracted a huge amount of attention. But I think there's a message in that work that's often overlooked a willingness to change. Your mind doesn't just help. You make better forecasts it. Helps you cope with failed predictions to? Let's return to John Maynard. Keynes and Irving Fisher. Both of them remember had persuaded themselves that their expertise in economics should lead to investment success. Both of them were wrong. The stock market crash of nineteen thousand. Nine court each of them by surprise both lost a lot of money yet. Here's a curious fact. Despite his failure canes died a millionaire and perhaps the most celebrated economist in the World Fisher made basically the same mistake yet. It ruined both his finances and his reputation why the difference in their fortunes in a way. The answer is ridiculously simple. Canes changed his mind and changed his Investment Strategy Fisher changed neither but that only raises a deeper question. Why did Keynes Change while Fisher? Didn't canes had lost one fortune in nineteen twenty and survived the experience by nineteen twenty nine before the crash he was again pondering his shortcomings his investment strategy based on the assumption that he could predict the ups and downs of the business. Cycle wasn't working out. He started thinking about how to change his approach. Canes lost more than eighty percent of his net worth in twenty nine but even afterwards he was still rich in short he had plenty of evidence. That had made a mistake. He had experience of making mistakes in the past bouncing back and he was still comfortably off. Why not change by the Early Nineteen Thirties? Cames had abandoned business cycle forecasting entirely the greatest economist in the world had decided he just couldn't do it well enough to make money as time goes on. I get more and more convinced that the right method investment to put fairly large sums enterprises which one things one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. Forget what the economy's doing just fine. Great companies and invest for the long term and if fat approach sounds familiar. It's most famously associated with Warren Buffett. The world's richest investor that a man who loves to quote John Maynard Keynes. Keynes is rightly viewed today as a successful investor. At King's college he recovered from the poor performance of the early years he secured high returns with modest risks outperforming the stock market as a whole many times over. It's an impressive reward for being able to change your mind. Having Fisher was in a very different situation Irving Fisher's business page had graced newspapers across the country when things turned Sour Fisher was escape goat in front of the entire United States. The New York Times reported that the bubble had been blamed on. Us Treasury Secretary Mellon former president. Coolidge and Professor Irving Fisher of Yale and Professor Irving Fisher of Yale was in deep financial. Trouble the fact that his investments were made using leverage meant that both gains and losses were magnified what had seemed like brilliance before the crash was catastrophic. Afterwards Fisher was staring in the face of bankruptcy the loss of his house his businesses everything for example one of fishes major investments was in the stationery company Remington rand. It was fifty eight dollars a share before the crash dropping to twenty eight dollars within a few months at that point Fisher borrowed more money to invest but the share price kept falling all the way to one dollar you can imagine his desperation but surely being in such a tight spot would have made Fisher more likely to adapt his strategy. Not necessarily a received another message. Everyone gets your overcoats and stand by okay. Okay Okay. Everyone sit quietly in the living room. We shall act as if this were just an ordinary gathering of friends. Remember Dorothy Maltin an had. Ufo called. They've persuaded themselves that. The world is about to be flooded and they will be saved at midnight. I aliens delivering them safely to Planet Clarion and remember too that the psychologist. Leon festinger has infiltrated the Colt. His researchers were there that night to observe what happened. Festinger had a striking prediction. That when the aliens didn't appear many cultists wouldn't be discouraged by the clear failure of Mrs Martens Prophecy or feel angry and betrayed. Instead they would redouble the efforts to believe another reporter. No doubt just hang up. Preparations cannot be interrupted. We'll call them later. If we have anything for hasn't the clock has made national starts with a couple of minutes back. Caught is look at the clock. I set myself this afternoon and it's not midnight yet one minute to midnight midnight. The aliens did not appear. Nobody said a word. One of the more casual cult members who've expressed skepticism before picked up his coat and hat and walked out no comment. We have nothing to tell you. People tried to make sense of what was happening or rather not happening. The theories grew ever wilder. People were confused exhausted. Leon festinger observers tried to ask why the saucer hadn't come the group didn't want to talk about it and then at four o'clock in the morning Dorothy. Martin put her face in her hands and began to weep one fasting researchers stepped outside for some air and discussed the situation the leading cult member. I've had a long way to go I've given up just about everything cut everyti- burned every bridge. Turn my back on the world. I CAN'T AFFORD TO DOUBT I. I have to believe they went back inside but four forty five. Am Dorothy Maltin hand. Shaking picked up a pencil and began to ride it was. She said a new message. Because of the faith shown by that small group of people F- had been spared destruction. A higher power would save not only the small Colt but the entire human race At this the cultists acquired new fervor going out to greet the dawn and tell people the good news. They suddenly became evangelists issuing statements to the press. Ravin batting them away. Dorothy is this the first time you've called the newspaper yourself? Oh yes. This is the first time I've ever called them. I've never had anything to tell them before. But how I feel it's urgent. We should call the Associated Press and the United Press. This thing is pretty important. It's a very big thing bigger than just one newspaper. I don't think the Creator would want this to be an exclusive story. Any not definitely not right correct. It's it's got to be for everybody for everybody correct. Yes festinger had been right. His view that the cultists would redouble efforts to believe in. The face of failure was based on a theory. He called cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance predicts that people will start to squirm when they hold contradictory thoughts. Such as it's worth quitting my job in order to be collected by aliens and the aliens did not show up. People often deny the obvious in order to reduce the discomfort and the more suffering people of put themselves through on behalf of a belief. The more likely they are to cling onto it otherwise. Olot suffering would seem ridiculous. Would it not fasting? Gas Theory applies perfectly to poor Irving Fisher in the nineteen thirties. He believed himself to be a man of logic and reason and yet he was deeply in debt the most famous financial basket case in the country in fact if people today not just one thing about Irving Fisher. It's this two weeks before the Wall Street crash began he was quoted by The New York Times. Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. How'd you back away from that? Fisher went deeper. And deeper in debt to the tax man and to his brokers towards the end of his life he was a marginalized figure a widower an easy target for scam artists and their get rich quick schemes. Because he was always on the lookout for a way to revive his fortune he never did. Although canes had much in common with Fisher was a different kind of character recall canes his common to his father this high stakes. Gambling amuses me. The monte-carlo Gambler knew all along but wall investing was a fascinating game. It was a game nonetheless and one shouldn't take an unlucky throw of the dice too much to heart. When his investments flopped he tried something else Fisher and canes died within a few months of each other not long after the end of the Second World War Fisher had become irrelevant. Canes was the most influential economist on the planet fresh from shaping the world the IMF and the entire global financial system looking back canes reflected. My only regret is that I have not drunk more champagne in my life. But he's remembered far more for words that he probably never said nevertheless live by them when my information changes. I ultimate conclusions. What do you do sir? If only had taught that lesson to Irving Fisher. You've been listening to cautionary tales if you'd like to find out more about the ideas in this episode including links to our sources the show notes on my website. Tim Harford Dot Com cautionary tales written and presented by me. Tim Harford our producers are Ryan Deli and Marilyn rust the sound designer and mixer was Pasqua wise who also composed the amazing music. Starring in this season are Allen. Coming Archie pange rb Toby Stevens and Russell tovy alongside Enzo Chilean at Gahan Melanie Gutteridge Messiah Monroe and Rufus. Right and introducing Malcolm Bradwell. Thanks to the team at Pushkin Industries. Julia Barton had a fain meal. Lebel Kalemie Jacob Weisberg and of course the mighty Malcolm Dodwell. Thanks to my colleagues at the Financial Times

Professor Irving Fisher John Maynard Canes Leon festinger Irving Fisher United States Dorothy Martin England Fisher John Maynard Cambridge John The New York Times Keynes Canes New House Dorothy mountain Philip Tet Cambridge Canes Ted Talk Bank of England
The Matt Bernier Show - Recap Edition - June 24, 2019

Daily Racing Form

25:27 min | 1 year ago

The Matt Bernier Show - Recap Edition - June 24, 2019

"Blue. Going. I welcome into map Vernier show on TV. My name is Matt Bernier. You can follow me on Twitter at Bernier underscore, Matt. This is the recap addition gonna go back, take a look at a couple of graded stakes races from this past weekend. The weekend of June. The twenty second we'll kick things off with the Ohio derby from Thistle down. We'll take a look at the lone great one of the weekend, the United Nations from Monmouth park Nimal rip through bit of a steak montage. Keep this, this recap addition, relatively tight. I don't wanna go to too long in many of these because I don't know how much there is to really dissect about these races. But we will go through those two big races. And go on from there as always wrap up with the weekends best as far as buyers concern. How are we listen to this thing? Thank you for doing so YouTube sound cloud. I tunes video dot the dot coms. All Spotify a, however you listen, please rate review and subscribe questions, comments concerns beneath the video player on YouTube or directly to me on Twitter at Bernier underscore, Matt, as I said in last week's preview pod. Please I would like. Questions comments anything, it doesn't matter, if it's these races more broad topics, whatever it may be. Let me know because this coming week in the preview pot, at, like the be more of a little bit of a Q in a hearing, some of the things that you guys agreed disagree with just thoughts in general, and I'll go through and cherry pick certain things and touch on certain instances, this probably would be a better time to assess the whole Santa, Anita thing, and everything that went on Jerry Holland, or for, I'm gonna wait and do that. And the preview pot. Just because again this week leading up if you didn't listen to the preview, pod, I'm rolling solo all week. So there will be no Illman or beer, so he's going to be a number of things. I don't want to just keep rehashing the same things in the preview pie that I'm going to go over with out of the gate and all the six preview. So figured this is a good week for a little bit of viewer listener sort of interaction. And again, one of the questions I had been the YouTube player from the preview pod was related to Santa Anita. Now that, that meeting is closed. And the whole Holland or for bombshell, that whole thing I feel like Thursday's pod is probably a good time to touch on that not here in the recap show. So I'll go over that. And please anything else that you have doesn't matter what it is not saying, I'm going to answer all of them rose s all of them, but just fire away. You know, the drill either on Twitter to me at Bernier underscore or beneath the YouTube, Blair. Let's get right into it both I start off with the three year old race. The big marquee three-year-old race of the weekend. The great three Ohio, derby second look at the field, only six of unfortunately, with scratch of global campaign left Owen, Dale for Brad, Cox prohibitive favorite for flora, jerus- with the mount here. Alternately went off at odds of three to five thing. He had to work a little bit harder than maybe you would have expected three to five shot, too. But that doesn't mean that he didn't run. Well think that's more a credit to the runner up sick, look at the stretch run of the Ohio derby, it's math. Oh, what's her in front? Owen del gets a dream trip through on the inside long-range Taty outside bath wizard one for long ago. Oh, Owen Dell right alongside on the rail. Math wizard outside two now in the derby. Oh and L inside math wizard outside, oh, and takes the lead and a wins the oil derby game effort from math wizard. Long-range toddy was third and Bethlehem road. Finished fourth. Owen? Dale gets the job done again at odds of three to five is your overwhelming, favourite, only a half length, though. Math wizard runs a giant race at odds of five to one. And he looked like a legitimate racehorse doing this horse. They continues to improve. Maybe when you want to keep an eye on going forward. Long-range toddy a long way back finishing in third. Odds of two to one. Is your second choice? More than ten links behind the top two. Finishers sick. Look at a little bit more for of ten lifetime seven times in the money from ten lifetime starts over six hundred sixty thousand dollars in career earnings owned by Rupp racing trained by Brad, Cox bread by Stonestreet, thoroughbred holdings, LLC in Kentucky rid victory by flora, giroux. You'd see the pedigree at the bottom of the horse card. He is by intimacy, if and a Bernardini MIR named Aspen, light. The figures came back strong for this race. Ninety nine Beyer speed figure own Dale one fourteen pace adjusted and non pace adjusted time formula's ratings really big figures, no matter how you wanna chop it up a little bit of an interesting dynamic when you look. I can see how this race was run and how time for US assess some of the pay situations, the three quarters and the mile call were both color coded blue. But when you take a look at the chart you see that the top two finishers came from last and second to last throughout the first half of the race. And I think a lot of that had to do with the early fractions maybe took their toll. So maybe those, those middle to late fractions. They may have been on the slow side, it's time for US stating but I think the damage was done in the early portion of the race where you had horses like dare day in Bethlehem road and going for gold out there and long, range toddy was relatively close about four five pads out in the clear, the twenty two in three forty seven three say what you will about forty seven and three for a half not blistering. But after a twenty two and a piece opening quarter think you're gonna start to feel the effects of that. And keep in mind, a lot of those horses stretch out sprinters. So I wonder if things did sort of play into the advantage of horse like Owen Dale, as well as math wizard, but you can't take anything away from the way. They ran. I like both of them moved in this spot. Math wizard ninety buyer and one twenty two time a pace adjusted time form US rating one Twenty-three raw. These were two big efforts from these two horses now Owen Dale, perhaps, you wanna look at it and say, okay, we'll comes from a little bit more high profile connections, not that saffy Joseph junior is not a good trainer. We know him predominantly from south Florida Gulfstream Park. Those sort of situations now looks like they've got a nice three year old on their hands. If he continues to improve this way, maybe even comes a player in these these races over the summer, but I think that for me is really the takeaway from this race. I said leading into the Ohio derby said it talking about the Breeders Cup Classic top ten ranking that I do every week in that. There's a poll that number of people are pulled on these three roads, just feels like it's a very muddy picture. And sure this is a relatively formal result. And maybe this is going to be the beginning of something for oh and deal, maybe he's going to be the whole. That sort of, you know, I don't wanna say takes control. But, but at least, you know you can count on to show up with his effort because really with the exception that one race down at the fairgrounds. He hasn't done anything wrong. He went out there. Very impressive in Lexington ran a really nice race in the Preakness comes back your wins this race. You would imagine based on the timing. You're going to be looking at possibly Saratoga campaign. I suppose you could try the Haskell be very interested to see how much time they wanna give him. Because again, those dates those races are going to be pretty nice about four to five week stretch between the Ohio derby, those two races so fascinated see where Cox decided to go with this horse the distance, you know, whenever I see intimacy, if I don't know that I love the idea of going much much longer, but he ran find it a mile and three sixteenths. I don't see why he wouldn't run. Well, certainly he'll run find at a mile and we know that maybe he'll run find at a mile and a quarter as well. If you think Travers down the road or. Or keep in mind, too. We're at a point in time, where I think it's going to be very interesting as more and more time goes by, we've already seen the effective. But with the Pennsylvania derby being great one it's restricted to three year olds and it's nine furlongs. I do think you're going to get those connections as prestigious races. The Travers, you're going to get some of those really nice horses that if the connections are not sold on ten furlongs for them. They'll just sit it out. I think and wait one more month. You know, it's, it's an instance where is it ideal to have two months leading into your next race? No. But at the same time, I think if there's real distance concerns for some of these horses, and these connections, there, probably better off waiting, look to both of them are seven figure purses, and they're both grade ones, and maybe you'll see some of these connections, I'm not suggesting that's going to happen here with any of these. But I think you're going to get to a point where you know what the Travers is much as I love as much as we all love it. Maybe connections. Look at it and say maybe we'll be better off running in a race. Vania derby at nine for a long before we have to stretch them back out if we're thinking bigger down the road. The Breeders Cup Classic so good effort from own Dale followed math wizard, who was the first one to make that real move. But again, I feel like they both took advantage, perhaps of the circumstances owned L finishes in twelve o to math wizard and twelve thirteen long way back to long range Taty. He was wide. But I thought this is a little bit of a flat effort from him. And those last three horses, they were all sort of Overmach coming into Bethlehem road was mildly intriguing sort of the fresh face, but he was relatively close to that pace and he paid the price. So he formed full result for the most part at this'll down on Saturday afternoon. It'll be very interesting to see where we go forward with horse like Owen deal with a horse like math math wizard as well as long range Taty, because I don't wanna totally give up on this just yet, you know, on his best day he can fire a big shot. So we'll see where all of these horses end up going when forward, but we do know right now Owen Dale another graded stakes win. Maybe he is coming into his own for Brad Cox, and maybe he is going to be. Interesting, sort of I don't want to call him a fresh face because he's already running triple crown race. But maybe he'll be that, that newer face that may be a little bit more late developing horse that will take over as we go through the summer races. Big numbers Owen del ninety nine buyer one twenty four time. Former us rating winning this year's allow derby the loan grade, one of the weekend. The United Nations down. Monmouth park, mile and three eighths on grass Sehgal the field eight of them signed on post time. Favorite was channel cat for Todd Pletcher but down odds of nine to five. This is a nice horse. He is a lightly raced four year old, he did some good things as three year old but he always felt like one that wanted more ground. Just stay any distance that you threw it him. The, the question really always boil them to talent was quite as good as some of those other horses that could stay just as well as he could erase like this, though. He stacked quite favorably, and that's, including Chad Brown. Having a horse, including Bill Maher having horse including my maker having to horses in here. None of them got the money, the big money went to Jim. Toner. Here's the stretch run with hundred Riley process the track as they come into the stretch just behind them trying to get going catch. Diane hunter O'Reilly bigger picture, let loose on the outside, as Zulu alpha hits the front channel cat on the outside. Here's hunter O'Reilly down the center, the track, Zulu alpha Hutto, rally channel Cavs Zulu alpha, tro, rally, reaching on the outside. Here's the wire hunter rally and Paco got up to win the United Nations, Zillow under O'Reilly gets the job done it out to fourteen to one with pot. Go aboard finishing second Zulu alpha one of two in here for Mike maker rounding try to is the beaten favourite channel cat now. It's nine to five with sake. Look at hunter O Reilly five of twenty two lifetime seven other times six times in the money over six hundred twenty thousand dollars in career earnings owned by Sean Shay, and Michael j Ryan trained by Jimmy toner bread by Mike, g Rutherford in Kentucky individually Bipasha Lopez the pedigree about on the horse card. He's by his wonderful elevate, Bernardini mayor named oblige. Ninety nine Beyer speed figures free to the top two finishers here onto O'Reilly and Zulu alpha from time form US perspective, a one twenty three pace adjusted for hunter O'Reilly one twenty raw one Twenty-one pace adjusted Zulu alpha and channel cat. One twenty raw for Zulu alpha one nineteen raw channel cat looked all around nice effort from hunter O'Reilly seemed like look, this is the kind of horse that he did some good things at Saratoga last year felt like kind kinda came out of nowhere. He's always a horse that lives in that ten to fifteen to one range, and for one reason, or another. He's had a number of races that just been ten subpar recently didn't really have a ton of pace the run in this race half and fifty one three quarters and sixteen time former had the mile color-coded blue meaning of slow that was registered in forty one in two for a mile. So it's not like they were going guns blazing up front early. Although to be fair, the horse that were one two three early on. They finished six seventh and eighth and field of eight so. Do what you will. That's an instance where you as the handicapper need to decide just how much sort of the pace affected the Alta outcome. I don't think it was anything that was crazy. I think it was just a matter of perhaps the horses that were a little bit far the back having to be the classier in this field. Zulu alpha. I thought he ran nice. I thought channel cat, rare really well given how wide he was perhaps, that's the difference in here. Given the channel loses by about three quarters of a length. He's done the backside wide running the far turn he finishes in eleven sixty three Zulu alpha finishes in eleven sixty three this was a case where whoever finished fast last got the money on row. Riley comes home and eleven thirty four. He gets the job done here. You would assume he's going to go up Saratoga run a campaign similar to what we saw last year. He's going to be a giant price, again whatever race he shows up in end while this is a great one and you don't wanna take anything away from him or the connections. You can't help. But think when you see this field that, you know, focus group was here for Chad. A Roach was here for Chad Arocca. However, you'd like to pronounce that. These are the c and d strings Chad. You're gonna get Saratoga. You're gonna have the big boys that come back out. You're gonna have the bricks and mortar. You're gonna have the Robert BRUCE'S, you know, you're gonna have horses of that nature that show up. I just feel the water is going to get a hell of a lot deeper here for these horses coming out of the UN with the go to Saratoga, whether to go out to Arlington for the million anything like that. It just feels like Chad has plenty waiting for these horses. But at the end of the day nice effort from the top three horses, and look bigger picture. He tried focus group. He tried folks probably too far back. He's also that kind of horse where I do wonder is he better at even longer distances? I believe he won the Johns call last year at Saratoga mile and five eighths, and restricted stakes race. But he did well at Woodbine. Maybe you need even longer distances for focus group, which is more stare. I think that quicken and bigger picture. He's gonna show up. He'll be honest look fine effort for the year old. I don't think it was one of his better efforts, I don't think it was a. Effort either. I think you have no reason to believe that he won't continue on continue to run solid races. And he'll threaten in some of these every once in awhile, when things fall in his in his lap favor. But right now look at this race to say hunter O'Reilly tip of the cap, you got the job done. Water will get deeper. When you get Saratoga and say the same for the rest of this field channel. Maybe he's the one you wanna take out of here, given that wide trip that he encountered a grade. One winner is hunter O'Reilly ninety nine Beyer speed figure one Twenty-three pace adjusted. Time for US rating now. Let's throw it into the stakes montage for this past weekend. We'll take a look at some closing weekend stakes races from Santa Anita as well as the other graded stakes races for Monmouth, and one from north of the border up would buy. Let's get into that. The stakes montage will come back with some quick thoughts but they turn to the top of the stretch, and valedictorian takes over its valedictorian of the long, pole and flexibility, may remember charging down the outside with conquest hard, candy valedictorian and pocket of the sixty poll air front by four inflexibility, made to remember my. Sister, sledge, giving chase. But valedictorian wins the eaten town with panache one by three and a half in the end sick and very close either in flexibility, or made to remember diamond can have to reroute in the final furlong, their three legs clear, bow harbor run into love, you will taste defeat today, a funnel furlong lift ago. Managua halon, Jose Lescot. We're pulling away Managua, halo past the sixty poll diamond Qingdao harbour trying to close lay Leibman gala doing it nicely here in the Islam, Mananga, halo going on to win it by about three and a half four in the ad about harbor got up for second. Third went to diamond king. Zanotti. Two sis- Heeb is finishing with a real nice rush at them, both and cisa. He chanced his a slam digging in society Heeb is starting to inhale them on the outside avian Mesa the center Tisza slam still in front Saheeb on the wrong lead and Tisza slam gets on a length to sick and he's may says he weakening on that effort and Tisza slam gate to Wia wins. The Singspiel comfortably Amy's mazes sick simply breathless at the rail turning for home. And now all these care the coming through on the inside of it, but they MIA'S girl catchy get through there in the center. The court storm the hill comes simply breakfast with a big rally, simply breathless all these go on with it simply breathless takes solar late and centrally breathless wings The Wilshire blanket photo for second involve other red king also finishing with some interest acclimate hanging tough on the front of has three. Oscar Domingus chasing with determination, though, it's acclimate Oscar to acclimate caves, going Oscar Dominguez trying so hard acclimate. Oscar Dominquez acclimate, one wire in the San wine. Oscar Domingo's with second red king third, you're gotta water. Majestic eagle turning for home and Stati. Dresser running a big race. Law-abiding citizen trying to come back. For more sharp samurai is on the outside followed by majestic eagle sixteenth ago stars dresser, law-abiding, citizens sticks through on the inside with a good purse on the outside. Majestic eagle. Majestic eagle gets up or some quick thoughts on that sakes montage, and we'll get into the weekends best buyers of eaten Tom valedictorian to me. She she might be the most underrated Philly in training turf. Order, she just shows up and runs her heart out each and every time I love the versatility that she has a race like the eaten town. She goes up there presses the pace, if there is no. Oh pace ratio. Go to the front doesn't matter. She'll kick on with it. I just, I think she's very likable, and I do, I think she's one of the more underrated horses in training, not just Phillies mayors just in general. She shows up and run to race each and every time sometimes good enough. Sometimes it's not Philip is Lynn. No idea where the race from Managua halo game from this is a horse. That is a sort of habitual minor award winner. I believe going into the race was sixteen time second or third eleven runner, up finishes, only five wins from nearly forty starts. I thought it was difficult to make ground in that race. But you go through and you look at the chart for the day Monmouth park, it's not like it was, you know, a conveyor belt there were horses that we're making up ground just in that race itself. Didn't seem like there was a hell of a lot of running going on from the back when Halen set just off went on with it. And you know terrible leads drifting about but I mean he he still buried field. And from a number standpoint, gimmick an incredibly fast race. I don't know what you wanna do with that. I'm going to continue on with the stance of when Managua halo wins races. I will lose if I'm playing that one. The Bill TIs slam. Walk the dog in the front. And you take a look at those fractions of the opening quarter was just under twenty six seconds half mile in like fifty three something crazy like that. No pay signed on at all find vine effort. He likes would by don't want to take anything away from there. He actually won the race, sir. Saheeb is the horse that I want coming out of that race because he's the kind of horse that when you look at the dynamics away the race was run. There was no speed signed on. He is basically last coming around the far turn, and he puts in a giant giant bid flattens out understandably down the lane. Those horses in front of him. They still have something left in the tank, even how slow they went a to me in a race with more pay signed on next time sir Saheeb is one of those that may be. I'm going to be a little bit interested in. I've already put him in my DR force watch, I would suggest you do the same poor consider doing same anyway. And then we'll wrap up with three races out. It's anthony. The Wilshire simply breathless save ground tipped out. Flew home nicely. I was disappointed in the effort from all these candy, especially when you consider the way that, that trip worked out rail opens of wide to me, the old ALI'S candy kicks on through there and gets the job done. I thought it was a disappointing effort. She she hasn't been the same after this long laugh. Maybe third start off the bench will be the charm, meeting del mar will be the charm right now, though. I'm disappointed in the form. She has shown also disappointed in the form. We've seen from sharp samurai in his two starts here. He ran in the American three-horse blanket finish at the end. Majestic eagle comes fastest of all in the far outside. I don't think sharp Samrai's, the same horse as he was. Because to me, the old sharp Samarai wins that race relatively comfortably given the trip that he had. X Y Z. And he just I don't think he has that same that same kick that same finish that he has in years prior, you know looks it happens. Father time catches up to everyone some a little bit sooner than others. Sharp samurai to me. Maybe again, maybe he's another one that at some point, we'll show. Oh, that can give back to his best. But right now, I don't know that I'll be betting on it and San Juan Capistrano. I spoke about it when we did the stakes preview. It's difficult for me like guesswork in a mile and three quarters race. It's not something that we run over here that's long for European races in some instances. So going into it, you know, we'll take a shot. See what happens coming out of it. I, I rarely impressed with anything because against such an anomaly. I thought acclimate ran really really well the fractions. I don't know if they were entirely accurate another starting going down the hill. But I mean forty six and change for a half mile going mile three quarters. It seems a little far fetched. But I love the way that this horse move when, when there was a little bit of heat going into that far turn he he still had something left in the tank kicked away opened up a little bit. And that was the difference because he prevailed by three quarters of a length I thought he legitimate, fractions, whether you believe the clock at face value or not. And he still had something left that was an. Impressive effort to me, it makes me wonder you know what a mile three quarters fine. I think he could still be effective at a mile and a half. Now the water will get deeper because you'll get better quality at a mile half race. I'm not totally. I wouldn't sell this horse short that to me was very impressive effort and one that potentially could be sign of things to come. Maybe acclimates when you wanna keep an eye on in those sort of longer races out in southern California, whether it's at Delmore when they go back to Santa Anita in the fall. That's my take away from San Juan Capistrano, as well as the rest of these races here and stakes montage, go into the weekends best as far as buyers concerned on the recap addition, we'll take them right? In order the three year old males Owen Dale ninety nine in the Ohio Irby three ruled Phillies message, a ninety four and a maiden special weight at Santa, Anita three year old males on grass Halliday eighty seven and a maiden special way to Belmont, Park, three year old Phillies onto blow out a ninety two winning the wild applause Belmont Park older males Managua, halo that one or two in the Islam at Monmouth. Again, I. I don't mean this in a sort of a demeaning way to the connections. Look great job. You've got the horse. I just, he's that kind of horse from gambling standpoint. I I wanna be bang against him every time because don't trust him. He earns a one oh to winning the Islam down Amman with park older, fillies and mares on Springsteen, divine, clean boxwood. They all learn eighty seven buyers one in a stakes race at Canterbury. The other two in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs older, males on grass. Eddie Haskell and siren lure that wasn't part of the stakes montage. But boy, you won't talk about a horses. Just crack at five eighths. One hundred Beyer speed figure for him older. Fillies mares grass simply breathless ninety five winning The Wilshire out at Santa Anita. There you have it the weekends best source. Beyer speed figure performances are concerned on the recap. Addition, however, you've been listening, thank you for doing so YouTube soundcloud, items video dot the dot com. Swell Spotify, please rate reviewing subscribed fear over on you to make sure the belly cons lit up giving DR of TV has to offer questions. Calms concerns, the beneath video player on you or directly to me on Twitter at Bernier underscore, Matt. And again, I will stress that please, send anything everything my way, I will pull everything together and put something out there for the preview pot on Thursday. You'll see a lot of this week, if you are a fan of our six previews or out of the gate because will be doing all the six previews and I will be the only one, the only one we'll have our usual contributors on out of the gate, but we won't have the boys in studio. So going gonna get a lot of me over the next week leading into the following week. So. And then July fourth weeks going to be a little bit interesting. Put Bill back layers, a little bit the racing forms offices are moving down in their building New York City. So there's a lot of movement going on. I look, maybe I'll be wrong, but I believe the plan right now is there will be no out of the gate, around fourth of July and most of you will be at the beach, or whatever it may be. We'll have steaks previews for you, though, leading in stars, and stripes at Belmont. Park and things of that nature. So you don't wanna keep an eye on everything. DR TV has offer this week as always, but especially leading expert because schedules, going to be a little bit at a whack as always. Thank you for listening, best of luck. I'll be back with the preview pod on Thursday, one, all your thoughts questions, comments whatever else it may be. Let me know until then, however you play whatever you play wherever you play. It's been the recap addition of the map, Ernie your show.

Owen Dale US Beyer Ohio derby Managua YouTube Matt Bernier United Nations Brad Cox Twitter Saratoga Owen Spotify Travers Monmouth park Santa Anita Bill Maher Phillies San Juan Capistrano Santa Anita
45. How to Free the 90s Bitch

Unladylike

48:38 min | 1 year ago

45. How to Free the 90s Bitch

"Today's episode is sponsored by European wax centers AXA pink tax campaign, the pink taxes the extra amount of money. Women are charged every year for basic goods and services, just for being a woman European wax center wants to empower confident women like you. And now, they're giving you all the tools to claim your worth and take back. What's yours? Now. You know, see for yourself at acts the pink tax dot com. Did you see Lindy west abortion story on the TV show? Shrill abortion is normal, but diverse realistic depictions of abortion on screen are rare. It's time for that to change shout. Your abortion is working to change the way, we talk about abortion one conversation at a time. Visit shout your abortion dot com slash shrill. To learn more and join the movement. I mean, we saw, you know, Sally, ride go to space, and we saw Geraldine Ferraro secure the vice presidential nomination on a major political party ticket. You know, Tony Morrison and Alice Walker won Pulitzer prizes for women's centered fiction. And it just felt like women were ascending. Lady. Nine. Right on. Hey and welcome to lady like the show that finds out. What happens when women break the rules? I'm caroline. I'm Kristen and Caroline you. And I have a lot in common with today's guest. Alison yaro. We all grew up in the south in the nineties with all of its girl power glitz and butterfly clips. But we were also kind of sheltered from feminism, and that sense of rising gender equality with, you know, like women go into space and making waves in politics arts culture. Yeah. Like, I did not know until talking to Allison the nineties were supposed to be the so-called decade of women. Yeah. I hadn't really thought about it either. But a few years ago when Alison started taking a closer look at what was happening for women while we were girls what really went down during that decade of women stunned her got really excited to say like, oh, look at all of these. 's major news stories that were really about women and the closer. I started to look at all these stories, I realized that the major stories of the nineties. Yes, they were about women, but they were about making women into bitches almost every last one of them and that was shocking. Alison, deep dives into that shocking discovery in her book, nineties, bitch, media, culture, and the failed promise of gender equality and Allison's book really couldn't come at a more relevant time considering Caroline. We are barreling towards twenty twenty like it's nineteen ninety nine from chokers, clueless, fashion and cassette tapes at urban outfitters to women like Anita hill, Monica Lewinsky and Lorena Bobbitt back in cultural conversations, like it's all about the nineties these days. Yeah. So today Allison's taking us on a kind of feminist nineties. Nostalgia trip to reckon with that recent history and the women who made it all. Find out why the suppose a decade of women become all about the bitches and what can nineties bitch affiliation teaches about American women today. What is the most unladylike thing about you? Well, I mean slopping somebody in the face is pretty unladylike. So what was so offensive that Alison slap? Somebody will be word. That's what the first time. Someone called me a bitch. I slapped her in the face, and I was a teenager. I was young teenager. And you know, I think we were at a party where people were drinking, and I just I had such a reaction to that word. I knew that it was like the worst word that you could call a woman and just reared back in slapped her in the face. And you know, I was so ashamed I felt like I had violated the code of femininity by resorting to violence. I didn't realize that the time but looking back on that experience. It was clear to me that I had really internalized perfect girl narratives and nineties bitch affiliation. What else? And means by nineties bitch of occasion, is the way the media of the day. Twisted practically every headlining woman into some kind of bitch and understand all this. We've got to look back at what the decade was telling and selling both, women and girls. Yeah. Because they were very different messages for girls. It was all about like, Lisa Frank stickers. Maybe watching the craft at sleepovers or playing a little game called girl talk. Played win playing girl talks to his more sophisticated. The game of truth there day. Gross. Never take ticker. Okay. So that commercialism from nineteen ninety-five and by the end of the nineties girl talk had been taken over by girl power or do. You mean, go power what kind of kid were you in the nineties, and by that I mean, which Spice Girl were you inch Spice Girl. Oh, that's so good. I wanted to be baby spice, but absolutely was not baby spice. I read teen magazines like teen and seventeen and YM. I wasn't cool enough to read sassy it hadn't reached me and making Georgia. But you know, I braided friendship bracelets, and like courted, Victoria, secret catalogues and really was seduced by the myth of the perfect girl. That was pedaled everywhere in the nineties. Did you have American Girl dolls? I had Samantha manza mantha. She was perfect. Right. I was going to ask how how you would describe that perfect nineties girl. Maybe beyond doll houses the perfect nineties. Girl was thin. She was blonde. She was white. She didn't have any flaws. And so that that kind of girl was really, pedaled and magazines. She was who use Aw, wearing the clothes in the dealers catalogs, and in the magazines, and she really was someone who seemed to achieve perfection without any work. Alison, I was just going to ask you if the perfect girl was Delia 's same model Sam because I distinctly remember my introduction to the concept of Thyge app. Coming through the deal is swimsuit issue and seeing all of those thin. Girls and looking at my own body and thinking, oh, no one of these is not like the other. Yeah. That really resonates with me too. They really were very thin, and, you know, those models and models in most of the teen magazines. We grew up reading they didn't have bodies that were diverse. They didn't have roles they didn't have Seig apps and real women have those bodies in other words, girl, power promise that we could be anything we dreamed of. But what that perfect girl ideal looks like in the media was very white thin economically advantaged in the perfect woman ideal looked pretty much the same except nobody was encouraging like woman power. So your book is called nineties bitch. What does bitchiness have to do with nineties women in particular? It's so funny when I am introduced to people when I when I talk to people about this book and people look at the title immediately. They say, oh, I'm nineties bitch or sometimes. Men will say, oh is that about my ex wife? So 'nineties bitch. The bitch part of it is not actually a reclamation of the term the history of the word really reduces women to their sexual function two dogs and heat begging for men in the nineties. The word bitch was pretty universally used to malign objectify and dismiss women. And if it wasn't the word bitch. It was absolutely. The suggestion of the word bitch. It was very clear or as Allison writes in her book quote stories of notable women from the nineties almost invariably suggests they were sluts whores trash proves Rodham maniac. Sycophants idiots frauds emasculated, nutcrackers dykes. And suck. You buy. Yeah. Was settled saying a bitch by any other name so women during the nineties they were often referred to as bitches four taking up space for being people that were reported on that was enough to render pretty much any woman bitch. The only difference between them was what kind are. All right. Caroline's oh, there are a few major types of nineties bitches that Allison's going to introduce to us because bitch affiliation was a real shape. Shifter? It was pretty impossible to escape if you so much as step to pinkie toe out of your lady like lane. Yeah. I mean, according to Allison women could get slammed as bad mom's damaged goods cat fighters. Double bind bitches and the villain slash victim. So a first category, the bad mom. Allison says is basically the woman who's trying to have it all by any means necessary. Someone who is perceived to like saunter off to a high powered job wall leaving it to, you know, domestic workers or other women to do the work of motherhood of raising their kids, that's sort of the bad. Mom bitch. An important piece of context here is the nineties when the number of working women peaked in one thousand nine hundred nine sixty percent of American women were working and believe it or not that number has never been as high sense. But the higher up the umbilical ladder mums climbed the more sexist scrutiny awaited them Allison's case in point lawyer Zoe Baird, she was nominated for the president's cabinet. She would have been the first woman attorney general had she not been felled by nannygate. So she was nominated and. Then it was revealed that she had paid care off the book, she hadn't paid taxes on her child care or Zoe Baird isn't been trouble. She'd been rightly radio. Rush Limbaugh shared his hot take in nineteen Ninety-three. She hired some illegal aliens to take care of her kids. Now, she only makes six hundred sixty thousand dollars. As Cokie Roberts have ABC says she had the best line that kind of money. She could hire Mary Poppins. What does she out there? Was really striking was that. No other cabinet member or nominee had been asked about their child care decisions at all none of the men, and then we come to find out later that one of the men in the president's cabinet had actually also paid a domestic worker off the books had not paid taxes. Just like Zoe Baird did but he was able to keep his position and she wasn't nominated at all next up. We've got the damaged goods bitch. These are women who start out innocent at girls and wind up tarnished by overt sexualization drugs or mental illness think Princess, Diana. She not only committed the ultimate Royal sin of divorce. But in nineteen ninety five she went public about her experiences with eating disorders, depression and self harm during her marriage, and that kind of openness might be appreciated on social media today. But with that interview Princess Di was recast as conniving blonde. Bombshell less Royal, but no less my fav-. There's damaged goods bitch Fiona apple. She was you know, someone who because of her controversial music video in which she's kind of riding around the carpet, not wearing a lot of close their accusations in the music press that she was bratty and entitled and she was making child pornography 'cause she was barely dressed. Here's FINA being interviewed on MTV in nineteen ninety nine people. Think of you. Depends on where they were looking if they were going to a lot of shows and not really reading a lot. Then they probably had a lot true or view of me. What was the wrong headed view of you in your mind that I'm just like a sad Brad with no sense of humor. You know, what she was actually doing? She wasn't being sexual. She wasn't playing to the camera four the male gaze shoes. Shaming the male gaze with this video. She was saying how dare you look at me when I'm like this, you know, she had been very forthcoming in the press with her own experience with eating disorders. She told a music journalists about being raped self harm and eating disorders really came into mainstream consciousness in the nineties as sort of the primary afflictions of that perfect girl dealiest model ideal. But sometimes the violence was more public which brings us to the next bitch category. The cat fight. So do oh who get caught up in fighting each other. Instead of you know, the patriarchy and the most iconic cat fighters the nineties were none other than Olympic ice skating. Teammates, turned enemies. Tonya Harding, and Nancy Kerrigan and the story of Tonya Harding, and Nancy carryanne is that they were both figure skaters pursuing you know, spots on the Olympic team. And Tonya Harding was accused of hitting Nancy Kerrigan with a club and running away. I can't believe it. I mean, why does someone want to discredit me? I mean, will you ship rich? Some of these ludicrous is totally ludicrous. Has been Jeff dilly and bodyguard. Shawn Eckardt, we're involved, and she knew it. She admitted it just days later. I have no knowledge. Of the plan to salt finance Kerrigan. When I returned to that story. I had remembered that Tonya Harding, actually, hit Nancy Kerrigan, which is not what happened at all. But I had remembered it as Tanya hitting Nancy, and I think that's because the narrative around them in the nineties really just desired the catfight, Nancy. Kerrigan was also bitch applied to because when she won the silver medal in the Olympic Games that year, she was accused of losing gold. You could tell she was visibly bummed out to win that silver right as well. Yeah. And she was also caught on a hot Mike at DisneyWorld saying this is so dumb. This is so stupid when she was in a parade during a parade Kerrigan complain to Mickey Mouse, it's so corny so dumb. I hate it. We have an attitude problem here. So there was actually like if you can believe there was actually a column in the Washington Post. The headline was is Nancy a bitch question. I should find that. Because my mom's name is Nancy. Okay. So that's bad. Mom's damaged goods and catfights. What's next? The double bind bitch. So in one thousand nine hundred five researcher, Kathleen hall Jamieson coined this term double bind to describe the patriarchal catch twenty two feminine gender roles and ambition. Yes, thank Janet Reno. Marcia Clark like any woman reaching for masculine coded power had better TOA feminine line or risk becoming the alternate. Double bind bitch will Hillary Clinton's. Original sins were really in the nineties. I think the way that we have come to think of Hillary Clinton dates back to two things, and it's really her sitting next to her husband in nineteen Ninety-two after the Super Bowl in a sixty minutes interview defending against charges of infidelity. You know, I'm not sitting here. Some little woman standing by my may and lactate me wine it I'm sitting here because I love him. And I respect him. And I honor what he's been Hillary Clinton made this Tammy Wynette comment and people really didn't like it. They didn't like the idea that she wouldn't be sitting next to her man like Tammy Wynette, and then just a few weeks later. She made that infamous cookies comment a reporter asked her about being a professional lawyer. I suppose I could've stayed home and baked cookies and had teas, but what I decided to do was to fulfill my profession, which I entered before my husband was in public life, and that became the sound bite. There was much more that she said, but that little snippet became the soundbite and people were angry that she would shirk her domestic responsibilities in pursuit of a job her sort of make some voters uncomfortable. I feel that she's the power behind the throne. She's very aggressive woman. She's overly ambitious Carolina. I was totally aware of all the hill. Lary hate as as a kid. But of course, I wasn't aware of all the sexism behind. Oh, totally. It was the same in my house. Kristen and y'all when we come back we've got one more bitch category to tell you about at includes many of your nineties faves. You have been described as a Bimbo a stalker. Seductress Barbara Walters with Monica Lewinsky a woman, guaranteed a place in history. Don't go away. Support for today show comes from third. Love third. Love uses data points, generated by millions of women who have taken their fit finder quiz to design bras with breast size and shape in mind. 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We're back with journalist and nineties bitch, author Alison Yaro and y'all she's got one more bitch category to tell us about. But first Carolina we've got to make a detour and explain a little bit about the sexist soup that all these bitches were swimming in like, I think it's pretty clear by now the nineties was a contradictory decade when it came to women because you have both girl power. But also all this bitch backlash right? And Allison says that there was one key ingredient in that sexist soup bitch. If occasion was able to thrive in the nineties because of a very unique and profound media revolution, the twenty four hour news cycle so during and after the Persian Gulf war. There was this new infrastructure for storytelling that allowed the networks to tell the story of the war and to build an insatiable audience that could watch it all the time and many. Of them soon realized that it was far cheaper and more desirable even to cover Hollywood and politics and scandal than it was to cover war. It was this relentless around the clock. All the time story X rated an extraordinary. That's the way it's been all day long with millions glued to their network bosses. Couldn't have program the soaps with more gripping daytime with charges of sex lies and audio tapes. That's why we remember the bitch if occasion of nineties women, that's why their stories are just lodged in our consciousness, it's because he watched their stories for days and weeks and months and sometimes years, and that was really knew at the time. And we still haven't fully come to terms with how influential that was and how that shaped all of our. Our lives and understanding of these women and ourselves there's no better slash worse. Example of the power of the twenty four hour news cycle to bitch affi-, a woman than what happened with Monica Lewinsky fifteenth nineteen ninety five and that day, he found yourself along with Bill Clinton in the chief of staff office, and you lifted the back of your jacket, and you showed the president of the United States. Underway. Where did you get the nerve? Don't. Well, when I I found myself alone with him. I was I was very nervous and having small talk. And I remember thinking to myself. Okay. Well, this is it if this is going to happen. I mean, maybe should let him know you're interested. So I saw I blurted out. I have a crush on you. Just you. Yes. Would you think he's a good kisser? This nineteen hundred nine interview between Barbara Walters, and Monica Lewinsky is still one of the most watched TV interviews ever. Yeah. For comparison more than three times as many people tuned into it. Compared to Anderson Cooper, sit down with stormy Daniels and Carolina. I totally remember that Barbara Monica interview. Like, I wasn't allowed to watch it because my parents were totally scandalized by anything in the Clinton orbit. But Monica Lewinsky was practically all anyone was talking about and revisiting now the way she was openly slut shamed. Fat shamed. In vilified in the media. And really across the political spectrum is kind of a stoning and Kristen the vitriol spewed at Monica wasn't lost on young Allison either. We looked at someone like Monica Lewinsky and saw a woman young woman who is Embiid and bright and had a really covetable internship at the White House who was. Being called a slut on, you know, mainstream TV news, and in magazines. And so I think many of us myself included looked at her and said what what will happen to us. If we behave in ways that are similar to the ways that she behaved this whole cautionary tale of Monica Lewinsky fall squarely into our final bitch category. The villain slash victim. So these are women who are making headlines for violent and or sex related events. Women who are in reality victims, but get portrayed in the media as the villains. And so many of the heavy hitters from the nineties fall into this category, Anita hill arena Bobbitt, and the frankly unsurprising thing is this trope also shows up in Hollywood. Oh, yes, film after film hit theaters with a leading woman who was sexy deranged and not taking no for an answer. And she was Glenn Close in fatal attraction, I'm not going to be Noord and Sharon Stone in Basic Instinct, I have nothing to hood. And to me more disclosure, don't tell me you're scared of me and the through line for all of these characters is that they were manipulative and vindictive and potentially violent or actually violent and they were hype. For sexual. So you saw these these women, and they were often, you know, pursuing male attention. They were looking for sex with powerful men. And if anyone got in their way, they were going to get cut. There was another term for women like this. It was used at the time to talk about not only these fictional characters. But also women like Monica Lewinsky and other real life villain victims making news that word Arado maniac. Colloquially known as love sickness a rod ammonia also made it into the DSM the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, you know, the book mental health providers used for diagnosis. So okay. I had never even heard the term Arado mania before I got a hold of your book. So can you tell us what Arado mania is like how was that term being thrown around? Arado mania is a delusion a rare delusion disorder that really only applies to women suspiciously. It's when women are perceived to be. Obsessed with a man in an erotic way. And usually this man is someone who has more power or stature or money than the woman does. And so she is perceived to be kind of pursuing him for sex. But in the nineties really around the time that the film fatal attraction came out a Rodham mania began to sort of make its way from you know, psychology, this rare disorder in to the kind of mainstream consciousness because Arado mania was then also called fatal attraction type. And so you began to see women who made the news who appeared to threaten powerful men with their sexuality. Accused of being rata maniacs. Even though they had no real medical diagnosis. Yeah. It sounds just like it's another way to call a. Minna bitch. It's another way to dismiss women. But this time they're not just some, you know, bit choose maybe shrill and cold hearted. She's like over sexualize d- pathologists. He's a psycho bitch. Yeah. Absolutely. But what did it had this way of turning victims into perpetrators and perpetrators into victims? For instance, Monica Lewinsky's lawyer believes she was a certified Arado maniac who is suffering from an obsessive schoolgirl fantasy with the president. But before pathologising, Monica Arana mania came for a Nieta hill a moment when the term Arado mania and Arado maniac. Sort of saturated the consciousness was in nineteen ninety one. During the Anita hill hearings. When Clarence Thomas was nominated to the supreme court and one of his former employees Anita hill charged him with sexual harassment. She was called in a row maniac and the Senate Judiciary committee, actually engaged psychologist who his name was park. Dietz? He was very popular psychologist at the time. And he was the one who sort of suggested that hill wasn't Arado maniac that perhaps she had pursued Clarence Thomas sexually. She was interested in him, you know, sexually and he was not interested in her. And then later Clarence Thomas is wife, even wrote in people magazine that she thought Anita hill was a fatal assistant like the kind. Fatal attraction type, but but her husband's assistant is this where we then get the infamous description of Nita hill believe Penn by David Brock of a little bit nutty and a little bit slutty. I think it's certainly derivative from Arado maniac. Sexual harassment isn't about sex, but because need a hill was charging sexual harassment. She was accused of Arado mania. And I think it's really interesting, you know, Arado mania why is it such a gender diagnosis? You know, there are plenty of delusions disorders. But why does it sort of have to center around a woman's relationship to a man? And why can't it why can't men be diagnosed with Rodman ah, but the definition only applies to women. Do you feel that lorraina Bob it fits into the Arado maniac narrative? Yeah. Lorraina Bob it made the news for cutting off her husband's penis. And throwing it out of a common dough charged with maliciously wounded her husband John by cutting off his Pena's last June. We're in a Bob claims constant physical and mental abuse by her husband, drove her to an irrational impulse to harm him at this morning. Imagine the story really centered on the penis, it became a story about how men should fear women because women were actually perpetrators of violence, and if Lorena Bobbitt can do this to John Bobbitt, you know, you better sleep with like the covers really tight over your head at night or your wife's going to come in with a knife. And do something similar that was the that was a line of reasoning that you saw often in the nineties in response to that story. What lorraina story really was was a story about domestic violence and marital rape. Which many folks the time didn't even think existed the penis chopping happened after she had endured six years of cereal abuse in nineteen Ninety-four Virginia jury acquitted lorraina Bob it, but it's taken twenty five years and a new. Amazon documentary series for her narrative to be debate, you fide and publicly redeemed. So what do you think about Llerena baba kind of re-emerging in our cultural awareness today anytime that women from the nineties can have an opportunity to return now and be part of telling their own stories instead of having their stories just told for them and told in a sexist racist way and told wrong, it's absolutely progress and lorraina Bob, it is absolutely. I mean, I had lunch with her. And she's just a fascinating warm articulate person. And we really did not understand the contours and depths of her story in the nineteen nineties. I mean, her story is an immigrant story. You know, one of the ways that her husband, supposedly, tortured her is by threatening to get her deported. And she didn't know that. She didn't know whether or not he could actually do that. And she's she's so amazing because she's really out there sort of talking about all of these issues now, and she even is an advocate for domestic violence victims. And she's using her platform to know to reach people and to teach about domestic violence. Why? Now why I mean aside from some sort of cultural ninety is revival. Like why? Now, why are we talking about and redeeming women like Lorena Bobbitt, and Monica Lewinsky because we are just beginning to see how poorly they were treated in the nineteen nineties, and I still believe that we're doing too much sort of individual redeeming and not enough looking at all of these stories together. I mean, it's the same tropes over and over again. And the similarities are just so shocking that we have to look at all of these stories together to have a better sense of the narrative of sexism. And misogyny that shape the nineties, and that really still shapes our present moment. Thank you chairman Grassley in rank ranking member Feinstein members of the committee. My name is Christine Blasi Ford. More on our present moment when we come back. Anyone who's had a migraine knows that they are the absolute worst. Now, it's a little easier to treat your migraine from the comfort of your own home. Thanks to cove, cove, breaks down everything you need to know about migraines and migraine treatment start with a simple consultation by physician that's licensed to practice medicine in your state. Then once they determine which prescription is best for you cove sends it directly to your door reaches out a few weeks after to see how you're feeling all migraine medication prescribed by the doctors at cove is FDA approved if you suffer from migraines. Like, I do the last thing you need is to have to wait to see your doctor with cove. There's finally a way to get help when you need it. 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We also have the fact that they're closer so stinking cute and comfortable. So the next time y'all need to never take off pair of joggers because you don't leave the house either vote with your dollars where packed dot com. Enter the code unladylike checkout for twenty five percent off your first order. That's W E are. ACT dot com and the code unladylike. I am here today. Not because I want to be I am terrified I'm here. Because I believe it is my civic duty to tell you what happened to me while Brad Kavanagh, and I were in high school, we're back, and that was Dr Christine Blasi for testifying just last year, the Senate Judiciary committee about her alleged assault at the hands of now supreme court Justice, Brad Kavanagh, and it made us curious. What watching those hearings must have felt like for our guest. Alison Yaro who had just spent the past few years investigating all that bitch. Affiliation of Anita hill. It was so dispiriting. And I think it was it was really upsetting to kind of have to relive this through brick Cavanaugh and Christine Blasi Ford when we had really already done this in nineteen Ninety-one, but really people had forgotten. And so for them, I think, you know, it was one. Of those moments where you think you think gender parody exists, or perhaps, you know, sexism, doesn't and it's a real moment of of reckoning and of sadness that there is sort of a deep sexism and misogyny that still shapes our lives and our reality. But for Alison all this nineties bitch vu started well before the cavenaugh hearings. I was writing the book in tandem with Hillary Clinton running for the presidency in twenty fifteen twenty sixteen and so in many ways as was doing this research and finding all of these interesting new narratives, I was thinking to myself. No one is going to think that we need a history of ninety sexism now because Hillary Clinton is going to become the president of the United States and gender parody is going to be achieved. So it's going to erase sort of all of the history of sexism who is going to need. Understand this. And then when she lost, and it was clear that she lost because of a number of factors. But one of them was certainly a rival campaign of crude sexism, it became even more important to me to get this history. Right and to share it as widely as possible and Caroline, this is exactly the kind of history that we do need to have in our sight lines, and in the mainstream consciousness as much as possible as the next election approaches, it's a really interesting political moment for our country as we gear up for the twenty twenty election and the ways that the six women who have presented themselves as potential presidential candidates are being treated really echo the way that Hillary Clinton was treated in twenty sixteen and in two thousand eight they're still this sort of likeability gap. Cap. You know, this this sort of a morpheus idea that women should be likeable. If they're to be elected. It's still applies today to come on a Harris and Elizabeth Warren and the women who are out on the trail. One story that comes to mind is Senator Amy klobuchar alleging that she is, you know, horrible boss to work for and the response to it. I've heard has been both. That's totally sexist men are not covered this way. And hey, you know, what like how you treat your employees matters. And you know, women should not simply throw down the sexism card to deflect. What could be valid criticism? How do you strike that balance between not wanting to rebuild defy women and also leaving room for valid criticism of women. That's a really good question. Because just because sexism exists it doesn't mean that women are perfect or should be treated as such or held to different standards. But we have to recognize that when a story comes out about a politician like Amy klobuchar treating her staff poorly, we haven't you're right seen other stories about male politicians treating their stuff's poorly. And so when that's the case when we can see that women are being covered differently than men. Maybe this is just the twenty nineteen version of writing about women's clothes and hair and makeup and not writing about men's appearance on the campaign trail, we now know that that's incredibly sexist. We didn't know that so much in two thousand eight it's sort of had to be pointed out, and we had to learn that then we know it now, maybe this is a new version of that. When's the last time someone called you a bitch that you're aware of? At a book event. Yeah. So I was I was doing a book signing, and it was it was a rough one. I mean, they were just there. There are a lot of people who really weren't on board with what I was trying to communicate with this book. They didn't really believe sort of the bitch affiliation. Premise they really did believe things like Monica Lewinsky is to blame and Anita hill pursued Clarence Thomas sexually and was denied. And these were the kinds of lines of arguments that I was hearing. And yeah, there was just there is an older gentleman older, white gentleman who came over and picked up the book and looked at it. And it was like what is this? This is like right about yourself. You know, kind of that that I can't remember exactly. But it was definitely like he was like, oh, man. He's actually calling me a bitch Tam. Yeah. We're not quite there yet. Are we like in terms of? I mean, God anytime either a Monica Lewinsky tweets or be Monica Lewinsky's name comes up. At all in any capacity on Twitter. It is still the complete split between people who are glad that. She is resurfacing talking about victims rights, bullying and people who say she needs to sit down and shut up because she was that temptress back in the nineties. She is such a litmus test. I've done probably thirty book events every single event. There's at least one person who raises their hand and says, you know, I'm totally on board with everything you're saying, except I don't believe that Monica Lewinsky is victim. And I'm never going to believe that she was victim. So you mentioned at that particular book signing hell, you know, some of the folks were just kind of not getting it just in general, how has the book been received coming on the heels of the metoo movement and hashtag metoo people women are looking for ways to. Explain an understand the sexism that they've experienced in their lives in it can be helpful to look at a history that tells a story of sexism and to plug into that and say, these are also ways that I've experienced sexism in my life. What have we learned from this feminist nineties stall trip with Allison will a don't get blinded by girl power? There's probably some more insidious stuff underneath the surface and be don't take n the gender progress for granted. Yeah. I mean, the need to continually smash the patriarchy is so real, you know, and we saw this to in the back story of Alison writing nineties bitch because similar to how coming into the nineties people assumed it was going to be the decade of women leading up to the twenty sixteen presidential election. Alison, like a lot of us was assuming that we were simply on the cusp of making this gender progressive move to finally elect our first female president. And clearly when we start taking a quality for granted. We're just setting ourselves up to discover. How much more progress we still need to make sorta learn more about nineties bitches? Don't forget to pick up Allison's book, nineties, bitch, media, culture, and the failed promise of gender equality. You can get it online or anywhere in stores right now. In the meantime, tell us as your perception of nineties bitches changed over the past like well ever since the nineties. What does all that bitch vacation tell you about sexism and power dynamics today? And does it make you think any differently about this whole nineties revival? We're living through Email us at a low at unladylike dot co- or you can hit us up on the socials at unle- like media or join the condo in our Facebook group. And don't forget to stop our website unladylike dot co code check out our sources sign up for our weekly newsletter and pick up a copy of our book. Unladylike a field guide to smashing the patriarchy. And Clinton your space. Abigail kill is a senior producer of unladylike. Nora Richie is our associate. Juicer. Jonah? Palmer is our story editor and ash-stained IRS transcribes are tape. Our music is by Flamingo shadow. Eat made Cohen and serotypes and mixing sound design and additional music by Casey Holford are executive producers Chris Bannon and Jenny rattled mast in. We're your hosts Carolina Irvine and Kristen Konger next week. We're talking to a couple of eighties who aren't afraid to to their own horn the chief doctor came and and afterwards, and he said, well, why are you here? It looks to me like, you're some sort of elite athlete. That's sit. Actually, I'm a trombone player. Don't miss it. Make sure that y'all subscribe to unladylike in Stitcher. Spotify apple podcast, or honest, and just wherever you like to listen and remember got a problem. Get unladylike. The eighties was sort of promising us in these individual women who had received such great success that gender equality was coming. And we believed that and the nineties religious dashed that dream at least we got the Spice Girls we? Stitcher. Hi. I'm Alison Raskin. I'm Gabby done. We're not couple comedy duo. And we're also the host of the new Stitcher original podcast called just between us. It's a variety show about brutal, honesty, female, friendship and unsolicited advice. Think of us as your codependent besties just want you to live your best life. You might know us from our New York Times bestselling book, I hate everyone. But you New York Times best did, you know? Okay. I just wanted to. It's very very important. Okay. Keep going or to Janelle also called just between us, but on this show where sharing secrets answering listener questions and diving deep into serious topics like relationships mental health and sexuality to people of the same sex or in a relationship. One person is by is there layer of jealousy there or fear of like, you know, there's double the amount of temptation or something like that. There's a lot of BI phobia on both ends. But again by sexuality is about desire. It's not about action just between out. Listen, stitcher. Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.

Monica Lewinsky Allison Alison Kristen Konger Hillary Clinton president Anita hill Caroline Alison yaro Lorena Bobbitt Nancy Kerrigan Clarence Thomas Tonya Harding Brad Kavanagh Barbara Walters AXA Carolina United States Zoe Baird
Buried by the Wall Street Crash

Cautionary Tales

39:32 min | 1 year ago

Buried by the Wall Street Crash

"As the night draws in and the fire blazes on the half. We warn the children children by telling them stories. Cinderella teaches them. That if you want to leave the party early leave your phone number rather than a piece of designer footwear. But my stories for the education of the grown-ups stories all true Tim offered close. And listen to my cautionary tales Late One evening on the twentieth of December nineteen fifty four. A small group for people sat together in a living room in oak park a suburb of Chicago. Waiting for the end of the world they were led by a woman named aimed. Dorothy Martin who was a conduit for messages from Aliens Will God or both the messages were alarming. Lami at midnight the aliens would land a flying saucer in the backyard and convey the true believers to the safety of a planet named and then that door a cataclysmic flood would destroy much of the world now now at five minutes to midnight. The believers were waiting. Some were disheveled. Since the aliens had demanded they remove all metal from their clothing. Brock lips bottoms even trousers. It had been hastily slashed away by fumbling hands wielding scissors raises some of the group with air out of curiosity others had sacrificed almost everything for this moment that quit their jobs given away their possessions and said farewell to their families. But what distinguishes this particular apocalyptic cult from all the others is that a small team of social scientists. It's led by the world renowned psychologist. Leon festinger had managed to infiltrate it. They were there to witness Nisa. What happened at midnight and in particular? How the group reacted to the appearance or possibly the non on appearance of the aliens gathered around? And I'll tell you another for Sri Times and and I'll tell you all about what happened with Leon. Festinger Dorothy Martin and the aliens in due you course but for a moment. Let's leave them there in Chicago anxiously waiting for the end of days. Because I have another story to tell you you then. It's not a story about crazy cult members but about two economists. Indeed two of the most celebrated economists who who ever lived and what these economists have to do with a UFO cult nineteen fifties Chicago. It's very simple just like Dorothy mountain. What'd they tried to see into the future and trying to see into the future? It's a dangerous business. One of the economists. I won't tell you about Tis the great British polymath. John may not canes you may have heard of him. He's a colossal figure in economics. Overturning the ideas that had gone before him. And then in re-shaping the post war economic system. Many economists still hold themselves Keynesians. Like him or hate him in economics. You can't get get much bigger than John Maynard. Keynes except that in his day you could. When canes I strode the world stage he did so in the shadow of another man in nineteen twenty four? The Wall Street Journal tried to describe John Maynard. Keynes this this up and coming economist. They reached for comparison that everyone in America would've known Keynes said the Journal was England's serving Fisher and Irving Fisher was the most famous economist on the planet but having Fisher wasn't just more famous than canes he was brilliant has warned Nobel Prize winner put it Fuzhou was anywhere from decades. Dude Asians hit of his time. Nine some would say he was the greatest economist who ever lived. But if you're thinking I don't hear much about Irving Fisher these days. You're right. He's not the household name. He was one hundred years ago. If you're wondering why. His reputation faded while Keynes's lived on. That is what our cautionary tale is all about Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes. We're very different men in some important ways but they also had a great deal in common. Both were stars at their universities canes at Cambridge in England Fisher at Yale they were both physically impressive. Canes was thin and very tall with piercing eyes Fisher had the broad chest of a competitive rower. They were both skilled writers charismatic speakers to after witnessing canes giving a speech the Canadian diplomat Douglas Lapan was moved to write. I am spellbound. This is the most beautiful creature I have ever listened to does. He belong to our species or is he from some other order and Fisher and canes also both active investors. They weren't just ivory tower economists but men who believed that their mastery of economics comics would enable them to make profitable investments that is where the interest in forecasting came in an academic economist might be contents. It's to describe and explain the economy's past but to make money Fisher in canes would have to catch a glimpse of the economy's future. Let's meet the Young Young Irving Fisher. How much there is I want to do? I always feel that. I haven't time to accomplish what I wish. I want to read much which I want to write a great deal. I want to make money. He's writing from Yale to an old school friend. Money was important important Fisher. His father had died of tuberculosis the very week that had arrived at Yale. The young man needed to scramble for funds throughout his studies. He understood what it wants to struggle financially. While surrounded by wealth at the age of Twenty Six however Fisher found himself with a small fortune at his disposal. He'd married a childhood playmate Margaret Hazzard. who was the daughter of a wealthy industrialist irving and Margaret's wedding was sumptuous enough to be covered by the New York Times with two thousand invited guests three ministers and extravagant lunch and a wedding cake weighing sixty pounds? They commenced a fourteen month European honeymoon and returned to a brand new mansion in new. You haven it had been built in their absence. As a wedding present from Margaret's father was furnished with a library a music room and spacious offices If marrying your childhood sweetheart sounds a little too wholesome. I'm just getting started. There are three things as you need to know about Irving Fisher. The first is that he was a health fanatic. He abstained from alcohol. Tobacco meat tea coffee and chocolate one. Dinner guest enjoyed his hospitality while noting his quirkiness well I eight right through my succession of delicious courses. He he dined on a vegetable and a raw egg. He founded the life Extension Institute and persuaded. William Taft who just just stepped down as president to be its chairman in one thousand nine hundred fifteen. When he was nearly fifty years old he published a book titled How to Live How to live? Now that some real ambition it was a huge bestseller freakonomics of its day and from a modern perspective. It's hilarious Larry's. I advocate a son bath commonsense must dictate its intensity and duration. It is important to practice thorough massification chewing going to the point of natural involuntary swallowing. He even adds a discussion of the correct angle between the feet while walking about seven or eight degrees of out towing in each foot and there's a short section on eugenics which really hasn't aged well but while it's easy to laugh how to live if is in many ways as far ahead of its time as fishes economic analysis describing exercises preaching mindfulness and at a time when the majority of doctors says with smokers correctly warning that tobacco causes cancer. The second thing you need to know about irving was that he believed in the power of rational commodified analysis in the modern study of scientific clothing. There is a new unit. The CLO- This is a technical unit for measuring warming. Power of clothing. There's also the money that's the third thing you need to know. Having Fisher was rich and not just because of his wife's wife's inheritance making money was a matter of pride for Fisher there. Were the book royalties from how to live. There were his inventions most notably a forerunner runner of the ROLODEX. Away of organizing business cards. He sold that invention to a stationary company for six hundred sixty thousand dollars in cash in many millions of dollars in today's terms Fisher turned his academic research into a major business. Operation called the Index Number Institute. It sold data forecasts and analysis as syndicated package to newspapers across the United States. He called it Irving Fisher's business page with such a platform Fisher was able to evangelize about his approach to investment which broadly speaking was to bet on American growth by buying shares in the new new industrial corporations using borrowed money. Such burrowing is called leverage since it magnifies both profits and losses but during the nineteen twenties stock market investors had few losses to worry about share. Prices were soaring Fisher wrote to his old childhood friend to inform him that he's I'm Bishen had been fulfilled. We are all making a lot of money in the summer of Nineteen Twenty Nine Irving Fisher was a bestselling author inventor data. Pioneer friend of presence entrepreneur health campaigner syndicated columnist calmest and the greatest academic economists of his generation and in that summer of one thousand nine hundred ninety nine a millionaire. Many Times over Irving having Fisher was able to boast to his son that a renovation of the family mansion had been paid for not by the hazard family money but by Irving ooh Fisher himself that achievement. Matter to him Fisher's own father hadn't lived to see his seventeen year old boy grow into one of the most respected figures of the age as irving and his son watched a mansion reshaped before them he could perhaps apps be forgiven his pride and now a word from our sponsor. Let's talk about about transfer wise. The one stop shop for sending spending and receiving money internationally picture it. 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Keynes was the ultimate insider as a schoolboy. He was educated at Eton College. Just like Britain's first prime minister nineteen of a since like his father. He became a senior academic. A fellow of King's College. The most spectacular of all Cambridge colleges his his job during the first world. War was managing both debt and currency on behalf of the British Empire. He'd barely turned thirty canoe. Everyone he whispered in the ear of prime ministers he had the inside track on whatever was going on in the British economy. The Bank of England. Here I just wanted to let you know that interest rates will be rising Tamara but this child old of the British establishment was a very different person to his American rival Irving Fisher. He loved fine wines and rich food. He gambled monte-carlo is sex. Life was more like nineteen seventies pop star in a nineteen hundreds economist bisexual. poly-amorous eventually settling down. Not with his childhood sweetheart with a Russian Ballerina. One of Keynes's ex-boyfriends was the best man at their wedding and canes was adventurous interest in other ways to in nineteen eighteen for example as the first World War was raging and the German army was camped outside Paris. Canes caught caught wind of the fact that in Paris. The Great French impressionist artist. Edgar Degas was about to auction his vast collection of pieces by from from his greatest nineteenth century. Painters and so- canes embarked on and Insane Adventure. I he spoke to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Yeah the UK's Senior Treasury minister asking for a phone for purchasing art twenty thousand pounds. That's millions in today's money may okay not at the first occasion that I've ever known you in favor of any expenditure won't so ever remember. The British Treasury was four years into fighting the most devastating war the planet had yet seen the Canes New House against his way. My picture coup was a well into fair carried out in a day and a half before anyone. Anyone had time to reflect on what they were doing. I think the chancellor was very much amused my wanting to buy pictures and eventually let me have my way as a sort of a joke luke. Some joke escorted by destroyers and a silver airship watching overhead canes crossed the channel to firms with the director of London's National Gallery. Who'd shaved off his moustache so that nobody recognized him? And just as daggers. Auction begins the German Jam. An artillery starts up some people panic and hurry out. Canes Pounces Buying Twenty seven pieces at rock bottom prices for the National National Gallery and he buys a few himself including Suzanne which these days would be regarded as better by than anything the National Gallery Director to chose it costs canes just three hundred seventy pounds then flee back to the English Channel and Cross home with a convoy convoy of hospital ships exhausted after his nonstop adventure canes calls in on some friends. I've got in my suitcase. It was too commit to carry. So I've left it in the ditch behind the gate. What Irving Fisher would have made it at all? I do not know yet like Fisher. Keynes was also pursuing an investment career. It wasn't just an art. He set up what some historians described as the first hedge fund to speculate on currency movements. He raised money from rich friends. And from his own father to whom he made the not entirely reassuring comment win or lose this high stakes. Gambling amuses me. Initially canes made money fast but then a brief spasm in the currency markets wiped out his phoned in nineteen twenty won't quit but he went back as investors including his own father an awesome to trust him with more of money. I am not in a position to risk any capital capital myself. Having quite exhausted my resources remember. This is John Maynard. Keynes the man who persuaded a wartime in government to speculate in a Parisian art auction. The man a Canadian diplomat mistook for an angel. I anticipate very substantial prophets with very a good probability if you are prepared to stand the racket for a couple of months. Of course. They gave him the money he wanted. Canes was back in profit by nineteen twenty two you so having made a small fortune lost it and made it again. Canes turned to the vast investments of his own college king's Cambridge Canes persuaded his fellow academics to let him adopt a radical money-making strategy. He would forecast. Booms comes in recessions and move in and out of different economic sectors accordingly. Such an approach makes sense only if you actually can forecast most recessions. Canes was the leading economists in the country and a man who remember would get friendly phone calls from the Bank of England if anyone could see into the future of the British economy it was John Maynard Keynes by late nineteen thousand nine both Irving Fisher Asia and John Maynard. Keynes were rich famous respected and standing on the brink of a financial precipice. The Cataclysmic Wall Street crash followed by the Great Depression. The worst peace-time economic calamity to before the Western world and the two greatest is to columnists of the age Fisher and canes both of them failed to see it coming Experts don't have a stellar reputation for forecasting in nineteen eighty seven. The young Canadian born psychologist named Philip tedtalk became curious about the entire prognostication racket. Tet Lock had been interviewing Cold War experts and he soon found himself frustrated by their wildly different predictions their refusal to change their minds when they were wrong and the endless endless excuses for their forecasting failures. Ted Talks response was patient. Painstaking and quietly brilliant. He began to collect act forecasts from almost three hundred. Experts eventually accumulating twenty seven thousand five hundred predictions. He focused on politics. Listen geopolitics throwing a few questions. From areas such as economics Ted talks sought clearly defined questions enabling him with the benefit of hindsight site to pronounce each forecast right or wrong then tedtalk simply waited while results rolled in eighteen years. Ted Talk published his conclusions in two thousand and five in a subtle and scholarly book expert Political Judgment Coun- that his his experts were terrible forecasters both in the simple sense that what they predicted often didn't happen. And in the sense that the experts had little idea of when they should be confident and when they admit that they didn't have a clue expert forecasts. Were barely more accurate than chimpanzees throwing darts most people hearing about Ted talks research simply conclude that either the world is too complex forecast or the experts are too who stupid to forecast it over on April Fools Day in twenty thirteen full days. I received an email from Philip deadlock inviting me to join what he described as a major new research program. It was funded by the. US intelligence services is this program continued and expanded Tet locks long running study in the form of a forecasting tournament. You would simply log onto a website. Give your best judgement about matters. You may be following anyway and update that judgment if and when you feel it should be when time passes and forecasts are judged you compare your results results with those of others. More than twenty thousand people signed up some professionals and some amateurs tetlow and his colleagues ran experiments on this army army of volunteers giving them different kinds of training or assembling them into teams to see if that helped. I didn't join in a told myself I was too busy. I I suppose I was chickening out too but the fundamental reason that I didn't participate was because Ted talks work had already persuaded me that the forecasting task was impossible. But it wasn't. This vast new tournament identified a select group of people whose forecasts while by no means perfect perfect. Were vastly better than the DART throwing chimp. Standard Ted talk with an uncharacteristic touch of hyperbole called them super forecasters so what makes a super forecaster. The super forecasters are what psychologists call actively open minded thinkers these people who didn't cling to tightly to a single approach who were comfortable abandoning an old view in the light of fresh evidence or new arguments and who who embraced disagreements with others. As an opportunity to learn the secret super forecasting it's a willingness to change your mind it getting out of the Rut and stay in creative is easier said than done especially with a busy schedule after. You're done listening to this episode of Cautionary Tales. I implore you you to join skill share and take one of the thousands of classes that are offered from writing to graphic design or illustration is even a class on how to make the perfect grilled cheese skill. Share is an online learning community. The Creator in all of US Ne'er classes are on demand. Said you you can learn at your own pace join. The millions of students already learning on skill share and get two months free. You sign up at skill. Share DOT DOT com slash tales at two home said unlimited access to thousands of classes. Free get started today. I I heading to skill. SHARE DOT com slash tales. T. A. L. E. X. dot com slash towns Philip tat locks work on super forecasting has rightly attracted a huge amount of attention. But I think there's a message in that work that's often overlooked a willingness to change. Your mind doesn't just help. You make better forecasts. It helps helps you cope with failed predictions to. Let's return to John. Maynard Keynes Than Irving Fisher. Both of them remember had persuaded swayed themselves. That their expertise in economics should lead to investment success. Both of them were wrong. The Stock Market Crash of nineteen twenty. Nine court each of them by surprise both lost a lot of money yet. Here's a curious fact. Despite his failure canes denied a millionaire and perhaps the most celebrated economist in the World Fisher may basically the same mistake yet. Yet it ruined both his finances and his reputation why the difference in their fortunes in a way. The answer is ridiculously a simple. Canes changed his mind and changed his investment strategy. Fisher change neither but that only oh knee raises a deeper question. Why did Keynes Change while Fisher? Didn't canes had lost one fortune in nineteen twenty and survived the experience by nine hundred twenty nine before the crash. He was again pondering his shortcomings his investment strategy based on the assumption that he could predict the ups and downs of the business. Cycle wasn't working out. He started thinking about how to change. Changes Approach Canes Lost More than eighty percent of his net worth in nineteen twenty nine but even afterwards he was still rich and short. He had plenty of evidence that had made a mistake. He had experience of making mistakes in the past and bouncing back and he was still comfortably off. Why Not Change Range by the Early Nineteen Thirties? Canes had abandoned business cycle forecasting entirely the greatest economist in the world had decided he. He just couldn't do it well enough to make money as time goes on. I get more and more convinced that the right method investments is to put fairly large sums into enterprises enterprises which one thing one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes forget. What the economy's doing just find great eight companies and invest for the long term and if that approach sounds familiar it's most famously associated with Warren Buffett? The world's richest investor her that a man who loves to quote John Maynard Keynes. Keynes is rightly viewed today as a successful investor. At King's college he recovered from the poor performance of the early years he secured high returns with modest risks outperforming. The stock market is a whole many times over. It's an impressive reward for being able to change your mind. Having Fisher Fisher was in a very different situation Irving Fisher's business page had graced newspapers across the country when things turned sour Fisher was a scapegoat in in front of the entire United States. The New York Times reported that the bubble had been blamed on. US Treasury Secretary Mellon former President Coolidge judge and Professor Irving Fisher of Yale and Professor Irving Fisher of Yale was in deep financial trouble. The fact that his investments it's were made using leverage meant that both gains and losses were magnified. What had seemed like brilliant before the crash was catastrophic? Afterwards Woods Fisher was staring in the face of bankruptcy the loss of his house his businesses everything for example one of fishes major investments. I was in the stationery company Remington Rand. It was fifty eight dollars a share before the crash dropping to twenty dollars within a few months at that point Fisher borrowed more money to invest but the share price kept falling all the way to one dollar you can imagine his desperation nation but surely being in such a tight spot would have made Fisher more likely to adapt his strategy. Not Necessarily I've received another message. Everyone gets your overcoats and stand by. Hi Okay Okay okay. Everyone sit quietly in the living room. We shall act as if this were just an ordinary gathering of friends. Let's remember Dorothy Martin. UFO called Nave persuaded themselves that the world is about to be flooded and that they will be saved at midnight take delivering them safely to Planet Clarion and remember too that the psychologist. Leon festinger has infiltrated the cult. His researchers searches were there that night to observe what happened. FESTINGER had a striking prediction that when the aliens didn't appear many cultists wouldn't be discouraged by the clear failure of Mrs Martens Prophecy or feel angry and betrayed. Instead they would redouble efforts to believe Another reporter no doubt. Just hang up. Art Preparations cannot be interrupted. We'll call them later. If we have anything for the clock pass MIC national acid a couple of minutes. back-off is look at the other clock and I said it myself this afternoon and it's not midnight yet one minute to midnight on the street. You're at midnight. The aliens did not appear. Nobody said a word. One of the more casual cult members bruce who'd expressed skepticism before picked up his coat and hat and walked out no comment. We we have nothing to tell you. People tried to make sense of what was happening or rather not happening. The theories grew ever wilder. People were confused exhausted hosted Leon festinger observers. Tried to ask why the saucer hadn't come group. Didn't want to talk about it and then at four o'clock in the morning Dorothy. Martin put her face in her hands and began to weep one of his researches step outside for some air and discuss the situation with leading cult member. I've had a long way to go I've given given up just about everything Everyti- burned every bridge. Turn my back on the world. I CAN'T AFFORD TO DOUBT I. I have to believe and they went back inside but at four forty five. Am Dorothy Martin. With hand shaking and picked up a pencil and began to write. It was she said a new message. The cause of the faith shown owned by that small group of people the Earth had been spared destruction. A higher power would save not only the small Colt but the entire human race at this the cultists acquired new fervor going out to greet the door and tell people the good news news. They suddenly became evangelists issuing statements to the press. Ravin batting them away. Dr Is this the first time you've called the newspaper yourself. Oh yes. This is the first time I've ever called them. I've never had anything to tell them before. But now I feel it's urgent. I can't we should call the Associated Press on the United Press. This thing is pretty important so very big thing bigger than just one newspaper. I don't I don't think the Creator would want this to be an exclusive story not definitely not own correct. It's it's gotta be everybody for everybody. Grug yes festinger had been right. His view that the cultists would redouble their efforts to believe in the face of failure was based on a theory. He called cognitive dissonance. Ascendance cognitive dissonance predicts that people will start to squirm when they hold contradictory thoughts such as it's worth quitting my the job in order to be collected by aliens and the aliens did not show up. People often deny the obvious in order to reduce is the discomfort and the more suffering people have put themselves through on behalf of a belief the more likely they are to cling onto it otherwise olot plot suffering would seem ridiculous. Would it not fasting. Gas Theory applies perfectly to to poor Irving Fisher in the nineteen thirties. He believed himself to be a man of logic and reason and yet he was deeply indebted that the most famous financial basket case in the country in fact if people today no just warm thing about Irving Fisher. It's this two weeks before the Wall Street crash began he was quoted by The New York Times. Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently imminently high plateau. How'd you back away from that? Fisher went deeper and deeper in debt to the taxman and to his brokers towards the end of his life he was a marginalized figure a widower an easy target for scam artists and their get rich quick schemes. Because he was always on the lookout for a way to revive his fortune he never did. Although canes had much in common with Fisher he was a different kind of character recall. Keynes's common his father this high stakes gambling. Dan Uses me the Monte-carlo Gambler knew all along but wall investing was a fascinating game. It was a game nonetheless and one shouldn't taken unlucky. Throw of the dice too much to heart. When his investments flopped he tried something else Fisher and canes died within a few months of each other not long after the end of the Second World War Fisher had become irrelevant? Canes Haynes was the most influential economist on the planet fresh from shaping the World Bank the IMF and the entire global financial system looking back canes reflected. My only regret is that I have not drunk more champagne in my life. But he's remembered far more for the words that he probably never said nevertheless lived by them when my information changes I ultimate conclusions. And what do you do sir. If only taught that lesson to Irving Fisher you've been listening to cautionary tales if you'd like to find out more about the ideas in this episode including links thanks to our sources the show notes on my website. Tim Halford Dot Com. Cautionary Tales is written and presented by me. Tim Harford our produces are Ryan Deli and Marilyn Rust. The sound designer and mixer was Pascal wise who also composed the amazing music. Starring starring in this season are Alan Cumming. Archie pange rb Toby Stevens and Russell Tovey alongside Enzo Celente at Gahan Melanie Gutteridge Messiah Monroe and Rufus Right and introducing Malcolm Bradwell. Thanks to the team at Pushkin Industries Julia Julia baton had a fain meal. Abell Colleen Yori Jacob Weisberg and of course the mighty Malcolm Dodwell and thanks to my colleagues at the Financial Financial Times

Professor Irving Fisher John Maynard Canes Irving Fisher Fisher Fisher Keynes Fisher Leon festinger England Fisher Irving Fisher Asia Dorothy Martin canes Cambridge The New York Times Canes New House Bank of England Dorothy mountain Canes Haynes Cambridge Canes United States
Stat Geek Q&A: Yay or Nay? Where do you stand with the new CBA?

Behind the Steel Curtain

56:55 min | 9 months ago

Stat Geek Q&A: Yay or Nay? Where do you stand with the new CBA?

"Turbo tax believes that with the right tools and encouragement. People can be good at anything and yes that includes taxes and to help people feel more comfortable with the tax process. Turbotax live gives you access to experience. Cpa's NDA's who are happy to review your return line by line to make sure your taxes are done right and that you get your best possible refund turbo tax. All people are tax. People Pittsburgh steeler fans welcome back to the Stat Geek. Qna We're here for another show here on Tuesday evening live on Youtube. This is deputy editor Dave. Scofield coming at you with once again as always his big brother rich. Still doing goodrich hanging in there. Your throat should be feeling fine. Because we didn't let you talk very much last show saving by have fun getting into folks for the QNA. So I hope the live chat gets roller. Yes there you go and for those of you that were not with us for the last show at are wondering. Who's that guy? Hey get out. The bottom of the screen with the exquisite Kevin Green hair green hair care of Kevin. We have a curtain writer. Flip Fisher flip how are you well? I guess you know Saint Paddy's Day's coming up I'm half Irish Dia Green. Maybe yeah maybe you could make the hair green p people were saying in the live chat lascaux like I keep holding up a picture of gangrene next to him the same guy. It's the same guy so I would take his bank account over mind. That's exactly the same like if I'm like if if you really are Kevin Greene then you should be donating a whole lot more to the show so you say that. So here we go. We talked about salary cap stuff last ad man. It's it's really not good. It's not good for the steelers and it could be a little bit less less. Not Good if we want to say it that way if the steelers can operate under a new collective bargaining agreement where there are not handcuffed by the thirty percent rule. Now there's going to be plenty of other things that go along with this agreement. There's there's a chance to adjust the salary cap because of some of the minimum salaries basically going up going up twenty percent per year. So that's I don't see how they could keep the same salary cap and say oh wait by the by the way you're GonNa be paying after team twenty percent more. They're going to have to do some adjusting of the numbers. We don't know what they are. So the biggest question now is what's going to happen with the sea. So here's what I'm going to do with you guys. What did you say a little bit fun? I'm going to assign you to be a person and you're going to tell me whether or not you would vote for this collective bargaining agreement. So I'm going to start was flipped. And here's The I do flip Fisher if you were if you got a vote and you are flip Fisher writer for behind the steel curtain but you got to vote on the CBA. How would you vote and why I give it away because I would absolutely be one of the French? Nfl players making the minimum salary. Forty nine year old Nfl players for reason and so from from flips perspective. You WanNa you WANNA see A. Yeah Yeah I mean you look at it. This coming year The minimum salaries jump up from five hundred thousand for first year players to six hundred thousand for for all other players that are making minimum salaries. I believe they go up because of ninety percent Sam Acho had a great great post on inflator. Oh he did. I was going to mention that so he was an Ottawa. Saying sixty percents evil. Nfl players make the minimum. So when you're when you're looking at that went sixty percent of players will actually double their salary in the over the course of the next ten years. How can you beat that? What I liked about his video because he had to we had one and then another one that he posted in the comments that he laid out. Okay who is this good for? Who is this bad for? We're GONNA get to that we are. That's what we're GONNA talk about for next question is I'm GonNa say big BRASCO. Rich snowfield season ticket holder with a friend. Just steeler fan. They give you a vote on. What are you voting? Pass it? You're voting pass it because I want to make sure we have football because my first thought is if the. Cba doesn't pass this year. There will be a lockout next year. Yes now. It's funny. I keep saying lockout I don't know is it. I don't know if it'll be the owners locked out the players. I don't know if it'll be the striking right. There will be a stoppage in play. Stop at your play field. Deputy editor of behind silk earn DOT COM and steelers podcast. I am saying I would vote. Not only what I vote. Yes I would find a way to try to to to clear my cache and vote. Yes a thousand times. I do an Internet surveys. Although I know there's no way to do that I'm voting. Yes for this and I want to see it passed because this I don't see them getting this close in the next. I'M GONNA say fifteen months I'm saying at this point next year plus another three months beyond that. I don't see them getting anywhere. Close to where they are right now because one of the things that the owners really want is they want the deal now and they're willing to give up more to have it now. The players still feel like they're not giving they're not getting enough so if you feel like you're still not getting enough the owners are gonNA come back and not even want to give as much as they did now because they're not getting one of the things they really want it so. I did go on record as saying right now. There's only three major things that we know of the owners want. They want it now. They want the extra playoff team per conference. And they want the extra game in the stuff that I have been able to read the CBA. And I'm telling you I'm not even a quarter of the way through. Its but I've actually skipped ahead to a couple of things just to look at. There's more in there. There's something there's some. There's more stuff that the owners are getting that we knew would come out eventually. There's it's interesting because it was the player. Another one I saw on twitter. I know Markey's pouncey shared it. Because it was a player who said they had their law for go through and read the whole document and give their opinion on it. Well first of all. I didn't think it looked like a legit law firm. Because the way they used all caps and the way they said stuff they call it a take. Early deal is not a taker. Leave it deal. It's a take it or leave it for this year. Because they can't they can't keep going now and and then change the rules for the year. Once a year get started. This is the last chance they have this year. It's still it's take it or leave it for now but you're gonNA come back to the table again next year so but there was some stuff in there that they brought up one of the things. Is that the whole idea of coating out during training camp. They've made some rules against holding out for training camp. Now I can see it both ways. The players like we should be able to hold out for contracts and my thing is will. Maybe you shouldn't sign such a bad contract in the first place. That's one I mean if you're GONNA sign a contract and then you don't want to honor that contract that's frustrating to an owner. They're like hey we dealt with the same thing last year with the Antonio Brown he. His Ego couldn't handle not being the highest paid wide. He was two years into a five year deal with new deal because he wanted to be the highest paid because he wasn't anymore and I'm like well. Why don't you live up to your? Why sign a five year deal? Why why why not? Yeah so I I see that but at the same time I'm like how many players flip you might even know the answer this rich. I don't know if you how many players hold out each year. A training camp is so minimal. You know those three. I probably less than five. You know what would you have last year? You had what Z. Gordon and Trent Williams were there others today probably flying underneath the was the year before was Aaron Donald Right And you make a very valid point. You know some of the concessions that the owners did give our or you know standing standing firm on like this is only affecting very few yes. I think the owners have been very smart. I think that they they have in order to what they want. They have appealed to the majority of the League. And that's not your superstars. So let's let's let's dive down this path a little bit flip. I'm GonNa side you a new role. You are the third highest pair on the third highest paid player on the Pittsburgh steelers. You are still under contract for a couple of years David Decastro. If you're David Decastro how do you vote on this deal absolutely? Not No way is what I basically get is a six point. Five percent increase for that that seventeenth game on my salary or six point two five. I think that's it. It's so mental and is is it worth the wear and tear on my body to actually do that now. Now I'm GonNa ask you this from a number standpoint because this was something in that previous. I wish I could remember who tweeted that out. The had the thing from the lawyer one of their contentions was players are playing an extra game and they're not being fully compensated for it now. They took away the provisions that cap that off but their argument of being fully compensated is. Oh they're playing. They're playing one extra game. They're playing an they're adding one sixteenth to the to the to what they play but they're only getting paid one seventeenth more because players get paid over the bye week. Do you see that as much of an argument as enough is enough of an argument there. Because they're saying because they divide up their paychecks by seventeen that they're going to give them the extra paycheck for that week. But that's a seventeenth rather than sixteenth of what it would be to actually play the game. That's that's right you know just mentioned about the The six point two five percent increase. You know Really minimal isn't it going it really is? I mean you're making thirty million. You know d care about six percent increase. Well being on a seventeen game now you know so so you say no because you're not getting enough in return exactly yeah rich. I'm going to find you someone you're ready. You're Danny Eh. You're playing playing just above the league minimum. You're in your third year. You're an undrafted free agent. You are trying to figure out you know you're trying to make sure you're making the roster. How are you voting on this deal? That's actually a tough one. I knew you want to go that route. What is what is what's he making Ola. Is this year his wall Tel you? His cap number number is six hundred. Sixty five thousand dollars. He is making his base. Salary is six hundred sixty thousand with a five thousand which which five thousand that was from a signing bonus so his actual pay would be six hundred sixty thousand dollars. I would say as only barely above the minimum so I'm still voting. Yes because I'M STILL ON MY ROOKIE DEAL. I've got years left and I'm eventually going to that minimum number. That's going to bump every year over. The ten is going to come up and pass me so I will gain something. It's not a substantial at someone currently on the League minimum. But I'm still getting enough that I'm probably going to vote. Yes now flip. See if you could because it would be a rookie deal. He would get a bump. It might not be a full twenty percent but he would see an increase in he because he's actually a second year player or player. I believe he gets bumped a ninety thousand this year and then then it'd be forty five thousand every year after that until he cites a a new deal. I mean you know we're we're talking you know is we're talking to a nice size. You Know Nice Chunk of change. You know we're not. We're not talking six percent here so so you think that's a player who would vote. Yes as well. I wouldn't think so You know we're we're talking a guy who's who's a fringe player in the NFL. I know some people might WanNa say he's going to start if we get rid of valid principle but You know But that's a hundred thousand dollars for you. Know maybe writing the pine three year Money to these guys. Absolutely absolutely all right. I'M NOT GONNA take to ask it to flip. Okay you ready. You are a first round draft pick of the steelers entering your fourth season looking to become possibly the first one hundred million dollar contract as defensive player in a in a couple years. U. R. T. J. WATT. How are you voting on this deal? Absolutely not no way so because you know he would benefit from it a little bit. Now it's not gonNA pay off for him when he's going to be one of the highest paid guys in the League. Well there's a couple of aspects here with that Right now they're what they're doing is with the with the fifth year which The steelers are going to Accept his fifth year or designate M V. I resent it So that's not only that's not only guaranteed for injury now but it's also guaranteed for performance so once a actually wants to steelers actually assign him the fifth year fifth year tag you automatically gets that no matter what you know before players could actually have that fifth year rescinded if based on performance so maybe but at three in our. I started teaching. What no I wouldn't let six percent rates in No and that's just the added. The added a risk of injury. And that's what people just have to remember. Is that some of these guys especially guys now. Not Every first round draft pick is going to pan out. You know we've seen that you know goodbye already burns okay. Most of these guys that are taking towards the top of the draft. They're just trying to get to their next contract to make their money so they're not necessarily thinking about their these four years to start because they're thinking about the next one you get even in the second third and definitely beyond guys. They just need to make what they can right now because next year is not guaranteed and next week not guaranteed during the season that they know that if the team was to make a move oh man all of a sudden. I'm I'm out on the fifty three anymore. So how West thank you. I'm pretty sure yes it was eric. Read the tweeted that out. I knew someone would hook me up. Thank you very much. That was in the live chat. The West said that with that with the whole thing with the lawyers What percentage of the team you think this benefits that they would vote. Yes I mean. Do you think it's like the NFL when it's right around sixty percent or do you think a lot of guys that are technically NFL PA members. That aren't even with the team right now. That are going to be voted. Yes to try to you know to see expanded roster and to then to make a little bit more if they can get picked up for a little bit. I'll tell you based on what I was. I really. I really think Ramon Foster Votes. Yes on this. You could by what he put on twitter that he's he's been in Spanish she heat. They're going to be certain guys and it's going to be those guys that are in that forty of that forty percent is gonna be the guys at the bottom part of that forty percent that no and have a little better understanding about what some of that sixty percent is going through and dealing with. And you're going to see some of those guys late in their career. Like Ramon foster state. Let's look out for some of these other guys on the team. Yeah and you'RE GONNA get a few more votes that way. I'd say on just about every team not a lot but if you're already looking at close to sixty percent of the league you're saying well that sixty percent. Some of those guys are going to trickle out and potentially vote. Yes or no. But you're going to have some of those guys enough trickle back that I still I see this. Probably be in around a sixty forty split. I want to bring this up because I was gonna say it after we were done but west. Beat me to it in the live chat. If he said came hayward isn't bottom sixty and he seems to be voting. Yes now he hasn't said he's very yes but if you just look at how he's been on Social Media. I I don't know that he's definitely voting. Yes I will tell you this. He has problems with guys that are just voting yes and not really given any substantive reason why or you know obviously feels like. Ramon foster is flat up flat out called out marquees. Pouncey for saying you want to scream and chat about this. Why were you never ever in player meetings? Why did you never come to the REP meetings? Why don't you come and learn about any of this? You can tell that. That's exactly Cam Ramon are completely calling out for this saying you. WanNa scream and shout and said you have all the answers but you'd never once came to the meeting to actually get voice your opinion or say anything. That's the stuff that they're the that he's upset. I don't know that I. By all indications I can't as voting. Yes because he knows what's better for the majority of the League while you're listening to this. Podcast T. mobile was busy building the largest five G. Network in America into it all during this one podcast spent years improving their network to be ready for the future wireless five g well futures nationwide. T. Mobile's five G. Network is in over five thousand cities covering more than two hundred million Americans. It's five g service you can actually use even in places where other signals diskette lock like living room or a bank vault okay. We'll find out the last one. Now's the time you get ahead of the five G. Game Not picked the first largest and only nationwide five network go to t DASH MOBILE DOT COM. That's C. Dash mobile dot com capable device required coverage not available in some areas downlink. Only some uses require certain plan or feature to CT DASH MOBILE DOT COM. But he's more upset about people that are making uninformed decisions but also you know think about Cam situation right now if if we're playing under the old CBA and steelers can't afford to give him a new contract then he's playing on a one year deal. Yeah what what. If he gets hurt. I was GONNA ask. I was GONNA come up with another player and say that. What about Big Al? All ask either one of you. What if you're big AL? You're playing the last the last year of your deal. You're making. What does he make about six million dollars? Five million dollars in base salary because he's a million dollar cap hit. I keep switching over bringing up the numbers here on my computer but this is last year. What do you think he does? That's a tough call. Because he's had a tough call you know like a like your your brother brought up. You know he's he's one of those middle middle of the road gates. He's he's the bottom end of the forty percent. Thought making a huge amount of money easy in it for maybe the benefits afterwards after his. Nfl playing career You know it's a good question I I'll throw the author that your brother and let 'em say ready the Group. I don't know someone big out. I I kinda you flip not short. He's one of those like he's that undecided voter that you're that politicians are out there trying to grab like you know we were talking about those some of these some of these guys that earn that upper forty and things that they may do here there. I just was thinking of the little hypothetical here. Okay I'll talk about a guy no longer playing in the league but I want you to think about this guy for a minute if he was in the League and making a vote on this. Okay Rob Gronkowski. Okay I see that a guy like rob Gronkowski probably would vote. Yes on this. Cba and you would say because because Rob Gronkowski has been charged his money so well Rob Gronkowski can say to himself. I've gotten mind and I'm not worried about the money that I have coming in but here I've been in the locker room. I mean think about. He's been with the Patriots the Patriots. Probably they probably are one of those few teams that have through the years of the haven't been sixty percent on his on this minimum salaries. There's years I feel. They're even higher the NAT okay. He would say I. I'm good young guys might say I'm good. I got plenty. This is by chance to help some of those other guys see. And that's because I'm not going to bring it up because it was. It was a long comment. But but wes was saying he thinks that. Albert's no because of the whole thing as a vet thinking about taking care of people after they're done playing to me. I think if you look at our vet I vote. Yes because he's going to look out for what's best for the majority of everyone and that's what was so great. If flip wants to comment anymore about I never say his name. I butcher names about Sam is our coach Sam. Acho he was up for for the NFL PA president but instead it is the center for the browns. Jc is is a trotter truck. Truck serve the tea. I know that I'll ask her that. Who got elected? Which wasn't the guy that got supported by all the guys that were voting. No that was Michael Thomas. The safety from the giants he was not the one that was elected. And the guy that they've devoted. Yes Michael Thomas was. What are the no guys and the guy that they elected is a guy that was more of a? Let's talk about the pros and cons for everybody you know. So but but the but the arch of video. I think he did a really good job of saying for. If you're a guy playing the very top this is not. You'RE GONNA want to vote for this if you're one of the guys. It's playing on a on a rookie deal where the or the League minimum. You're going to want to vote. Yes so it's not just about money. I think they're giving a lot of concessions. I mean look at these things that they were so upset about. Because you got a bit nine years ago. They didn't do a very good deal. I mean some people players the players could have got more out of that deal. Yeah they did not. They did not do a very good deal like one of the articles that they did on over the Cap Dot Com as they talked about. How when the salary cap grows the league minimum should grow with it and they didn't grow it over the last nine years like with the salary cap after after ten more years. They're going to be getting close to what they should have been. So that's why it needs to be better like you can't just go back and say we need to rewrite the last nine years in the next ten. You can't do that. You didn't want that then. You shouldn't have done that deal exactly. So that's it. We're not brown five minutes ago. You know yeah exactly. If so you can't go back and get and fix everything that you messed up with the last deal and then get start with everything getting corrected and then expect to grow from there. So that's one of the things they did get a lot of the decisions being taken away from Roger Goodell which is a different drug testing all that other stuff but so now the players can actually smoke pot for right around fifty weeks out of the year. And you know what's what's the What's the penalty if you if you end up testing us? That's reducing the penalties. They're reducing the fines. They're reducing a lot of the stuff that that the players really wanted now. Now now they took a bad deal last time and this I think is is so much better than the last one but like I said it. It's let's let's look at the flannel. Not Cop heavy. So hearing all the voices of the guys that are constantly in the media because they're the top guys in the league. They're feeling they're not getting much from this. They're very much against it. There's a lot of people that don't like that. It's not a fifty fifty split that it was a forty seven percent for the players. Fifty three for the owners of the all the other league revenues. And it's going from forty seven to forty eight. Then there's a media kicker a forty eight and a half it's not guaranteed but trust me with the deal. They're going to be getting for the TV. They're gonNA German people like why don't they go to fifty one fifty? I'm like you know what they're doing. They're going half way. They're going halfway this time so that way when they go the rest of the way. Next time it's fifty. In ten years from Earth it would be eleven years from now. That's what I personally think but the owners still have something to work with to offer if they want to go to that eighteenth game eleven years and that's and that's the thing right now I mean there's there's owners that are that are mad that the in its current version is is going through Or being offered because they wanted anything game. Yeah they did. Jerry has got to be one of those guys and there are few saying that and also saying hey we failed because we want to get this eighteenth game if I was one of those guys that wanted that to happen as an owner. I don't think I'd say I think that was set leaked try honestly you can go in all kinds of crazy theories here but could somebody kind of leaked out saying some owners kind of thing that might help get a few more yes votes those owners that leaked it. Was somebody else that I know you. So it's the whole thing you know if you don't want the if you don't want this Ebay will will offer the eighteenth game and you can. You can take that or leaving. Yeah I honestly think that if it doesn't happen now that it's were miss. We're going to be missing football next year. Because I think they're going to be so far. Apart and sow diametrically opposed. I think the owners will be upset at the players. Didn't take this deal. Because they thought it was fair. I think the players are going to think like owners are still trying to take advantage of them and there's going to be further apart than there ever going to be and what's funny is is pounds making its team like the the the non high paid players are afraid of a work stoppage. Well you know what they should be. They should be because how much I mean. I mean think about how much everyone's still says. Well maybe not everyone. A lot of people say that the dumbest thing that Levy on bell did was sit out a whole year. It'll just miss a year. You're not getting any younger for that year. With the entire league at guys that only have maybe two or three seasons in the League period because that's the average of it anyway. They're going to miss their chance. You know that they'd rather make some and and I know that's that's the guys that some of the upper end guys are trying to appeal to but it's not just that not only you're going to get a chance to you know it's a difference of all. Do I want to turn down a twenty percent raise in order to earn zero dollars next year? We that's hard. That's really hard but for those guys that have already made their millions so they sit out of here. This still got plenty in the bank. It's it's honestly is is. There was this negotiating ploy of the owners to divide the players between the has. It has nuts. I absolutely absolutely. And that's why I think that's why they structured this way you see how much how how many how many steelers are actually making over ten million a year and how many are actually banking under under one million last. You know. It's definitely divide and conquer. Having thousand dollars goes on palm ways right you know You know security after your three point three years career in the NFL is over with yeah. It's I flipped over to the number. Just say oh. I really wonder who who is not making them. If you're looking base salary technically no one on the steelers makes over ten millions of base salary but that's because they all have their roster bonuses. You really look at the cap number. Because that's basically what what takes account you're you're signing bonus and averages it out over the whole thing and I mean there you think about what the steelers. It's only two four. It's only seven players. It's only seven players this coming year. That have a cap number of ten million or more but if you want to look at players that are under under a million I mean basically. You're talking holy cow. I mean you're talking almost half of your fifty one you know. It's it's crazy just just the way they've done it so at the new. Cba benefit completely. Exactly exactly so I need to open this up to the live chat for for a little bit because I just typed in the word questions if you see it up there now the live chat anything you'd type now. I would pay attention to do you have anything you want to ask us here. I don't care if he just had a follow to set it up. You guys have been really lighting it up in the live chat which has been great so there this is a dynamic thing and I really think that this could could create quite a separation amongst the players. Do you see something crazy where people break off from the from the union and they form two different unions of lower low can. Can they legally do that? I mean of of I mean maybe I mean you already got Russell. Kun was going. They thought was going to be the president suing the NFL. Pa leadership about saying that they weren't negotiating in good faith and that they didn't follow the rules to send this to a league wide. Vote but you know what I have to say if this past the league wide vote and their complaint is. It shouldn't be valid because it wasn't half of the representatives. Then you know what I say. Shame on your representatives for not representing your league because if the majority of the players want it then the represent and the representatives should be doing with the majority of the players want. But that's just me so if either one of you have anything you want to say about that. Though you settle I I I agree. I agree with rich. Yeah Mike o'malley says Dave. We could talk to where blue face. The CBA is the biggest part of how the steelers look next year. Thought yeah absolutely absolutely no question it could even I mean I'm I'm saying at the very least. It saves one player from being cut at the least luke possibly more possibly for. Let's say I would say Vance McDonald right now? Is Probably the biggest guy? Sitting on that bubble I agree and I still think there's one other possibility with lance that I saw Lance Vance. Sorry the biggest with Vance that some people might not be thinking is the steelers might want to be working a new contract with him where he actually takes a pay cut to stay in. Pittsburgh to see if he wants to do that. Don't know if you will. But that's that's one of those things. So St that the worst thing with McDonald was basically invisible last year. But it's because you know rough and duck. Neither one of them really cared to throw the ball when he's just wide open. You know it wasn't him doing anything wrong in the year before he had his career year. I think he had fifty eight fifty six catches. And what's sad is. I thought he was going to put a big numbers with Rudolf. Comes in and that's in that Seattle game and hits them for two touchdowns in the second half so I'm like Oh this is going to be his safety net and then all of a sudden it's like he wasn't even on the field it's like they didn't even look where he was. So steelers Pittsburgh. What's to say wants to know? I heard the new deal helps retired players with medical insurance. I'm nick through that one. Yes I've heard both ways. Snl from what. I've seen. Well it's if they receive certain medical stuff. What was that read under under social security doesn't want to the League doesn't want to pay for stuff that the government's GonNa pay for it. You want a if the government's going to cover it but I also know that that could create some problems with with how things work I think there I think once again for the vast majority of former players it's going to be better for a few of them dealing with specific issues. It's GONNA BE WORSE. So that's just there's so much of the way that it works well for some but not well for others and there's a lot of complicated stuff with and I have not looked at that. That's one of those things where I'm dragging my feet on on looking at all the Bennies well trust me. I don't think the current players are doing this for you. Know they're going to change their vote based on the medical insurance for past players. I mean they might think of themselves for when they're done but but that's that's you know that's just not what you do when you're twenty four years old and try and try to make it in the. Nfl read wants to know when is the deadline for Vance's option? Is that the league year. Beginning of the La- gear. I I it's either then or or like three or five days after. Yeah so yeah I would have to. I'd have to look into that and you know what I might be able to to that here if we get onto something else well. They went live chat. So some people talking about by debris here. I'm used to bring this up because West kind of answered this. He said this is according to Otto. We says retires players have lasting disabilities as a result of their career for the people that it might not benefit. Who who it's not gonNA BE AB- necessarily obviously with you. It might be better than what the CBI has now but it just might not be good enough of what they would like if you know what I mean. That's what I'm not sure comparing it to the current. Cba The Vance McDonald options on March seventeenth. I just looked it up real quick. So that's names day before that's the day before so what? I guess I gotTa get that story ready to go. So let's see Kathy wants to know who gets the vote practice squad free agents. Technically there aren't free agents yet. Yeah technically there are some players that were released that have already been able to sign up for that practice. Squad gets the vote Anyone who paid dues to the Union last year could be guys. That didn't even play last year. Play Union there. I've seen figures between two thousand and twenty one hundred and there's actually under two thousand players. You know what? I don't know what what you have to do to actually be forced to do in the NFL because it is not the ninety man roster guys during the summer you know the cannon fodder for for training camp. They're not paying dues wrecked. This is a huge nerd in me. Goes something I WANNA learn about. Yes yeah so which is funny. Which is why both you and I kind of seem to be salary cap guys. That's why I became a cop formula guy because I want to know what really goes into this. And what's sad? Is it information so hard to get but yeah that that's one of those things I mean because last year out man I had it written down but I don't have with me because I did it? Brian Jeff made fun of me because I was talking about how many how many players actually got credited with playing one game in the NFL last year and it was it was over. It was like I think it was two thousand and twenty four is what it wants of. How many players got credited with playing a game so now like someone like Paxton Lynch he was dressed with. Today's we didn't get credited for playing a game but just somebody that guy that was only one week and was on the Kickoff Team. He got credited with the play again. The the weird number that I did miss the nerd in me and the two of them did not appreciate does it all and I don't know if you guys would or not. I'm like how many of the players that played last year played under the previous. Cbs which I would just from CBS wise. They're not going to think how many guys stick around for ten years so I looked it up and how many players played in two thousand and ten or before and played in two thousand nineteen and it was one hundred forty three players which was seven percent of the leak so only seven percent of the League right now made it ten years or more. So that's that to me. That's that's just one of those weird number of that. Look up it's crazy. There's only what set I was surprised. It was at high one hundred ten years. I I was to what was funny because some of those players like let's say for example there was a there was a a handful of really tricky to find like Markey's pouncey because he doesn't have ten years in but he played in two thousand ten and play in two thousand eighteen but that's because he missed the season new injury so there were there. Were some people like that okay. West says here's a loaded question. Would guys like Landry Jones? Get a vote. I would assume so the. Yeah because he was in with the raiders in the off season right so I would assume you would yeah. I'm trying to think that I read something. What way back and flip. You're saying it was like the number of votes that come in. I was thinking I saw that number of US come in was even a lot higher because there are guys that get the opportunity to vote just because of where they were when this is Jesse David Fox. I'm senior editor at vulture and I host the podcast. Good one podcast about jokes. It's a podcast about well. Jokes every sit down with a comedian comedy writer or director who lives to one of their jokes and figure out how it all came together. I don't sit down with a pen and the pad and physically write down everything I just has not my style turns out comedians. Take jokes pretty seriously. I like all jokes. Okay that's what I do. That's what I live with is really nothing else I care about. It's all very revealing. What did you sort of learn from this? What was your takeaway? I nothing Cayenne not. I'm not a person good one from vulture and the VOX media podcast network. Subscribe for free on Apple podcasts. Or on your favorite podcasts. At you do not use the puck. Oh what a great question Jesse David Fox and Landry might be one of those guys that fits that that was a question. I have no idea what it I know that they that they needed to be paying dues for for Twenty Nineteen. But you know what corner? They're dudes do in. What is do you? Are you forced? You don't pay a whole year end dues or do you pay like a monthly. You know it's it's stuff like that that keeps me up at night. You know what the same way of like once I think of question I gotta find out the answer to that question and I don't Wanna I don't sleep well until I do go to the very next one after West. Okay I will all come back to come back. I thoroughbred said is landry working competitor. Now though I don't know how that would change. It could change it. That's a good question to you. Mean the Mark Carmichael. Yeah go to that one from it. So he's talking about fifty three times thirty. Two is one thousand six hundred ninety six canal. Add onto the fact that there's fifty three aren't always the same fifty three so take on country for the Brian Squad added another three twenty. Five Year practice squads. Something like three twenty eight because there's no like eight international players. Yes something like that. Three Twenty eight for that then the fact that that you get guys. That aren't already guy gets guy gets brought up for the practice squad somebody gets released. Another new guy comes on the practice squad. So that's an yeah when something like that there's another person to it. I mean I mean this number Brainier. Haven't already on injured. Reserve each preserve because Ben wasn't on the fifty-three last year but he gets a vote. How about here's another one? Jane Elliott? He was that he was on and off. The steelers are a couple of times last year played. What four games? He's not a guy that you would count as one of your fifty three is but he's definitely one of the players so I think I had. It calculated that there was that there was it was like sixty eight different players got credited with playing a game for the steelers last year. You know so I mean because that's that's more of everyone look at more more of like the in the savage beating busier. Play a game. But you're talking past list. Passing Lynch was there was on the roster. Never saw a game. He still gets a vote. You know. It's it's that that number is really really go. Yup It really can and you know the extra players that you're talking about these are these. Are the Benham guys. These are the sixty percent guy. So they're they're definitely during to be. You would think that most of them are going to be the guys that are going to say absolutely. We'll take our hundred thousand dollars and expanded expanded practice squads. You know what I mean. Who Two more spots than eventually for even two more. Where like. That's I mean. Think about that. That's another sixty four guys that are going to get a job. That's sixty four people who should be voting. Yes and we didn't really. We didn't talk about this tonight. That the more people there's three Moorgate three more guys active on game days in the two after a practice. Blood Guy or four actor practice squad guys over the next couple of years you get into the you get into that. And then you get into the accrued seasons which means you know more towards Becoming a free agent and then of course getting benefits on top of that lifetime benfits for being in the NFL player. That's that's huge again. Ex- ex- per the NFL PA constitution roster players practice squad players and even free agent two aren't on a team but who are actively seeking employment with the team can be members in the Union as long as they pay their dues. So just because you know what you could be the highest paid guy on your roster you could choose to not be a part of the union correct. There's nothing that requires them to pay dues and be in the Union. That's good Yeah because my first year. Outta college when I was a teacher I chose not to be in the Teacher's Union. I still had to pay them a reduced amount of dues because technically they were still representing my contract they were my contract was still to go. Jeannie by them but I chose not to pay news and belong to the I did that for eleven years. Yeah so I didn't have to pay reduce inc. They wanted to take some of my sick days to put in the sixth day poor. I'm keep my own. Forget that and the question would be what is how expensive art. Nfl players hit reads up there and put a question. So Mr Third and fifth could be vote that is correct that incorrect yesterday had a vote on this. I'm totally certain can probably tell you what his vote was. He probably said now of course So he still trying to get millions of dollars from the raiders. When he never played a game West said that there was an article that says it could be as high as twenty five hundred. Yeah I think he's right. Cathy said he'd been. That's my one would for the evening. Great so and and you know one thing that one thing that they've done is the vote was actually supposed to end tomorrow night at midnight and now it's being pushed back until Saturday and another thing that I heard mentioned yesterday and I'm not sure if this is true or not is players have asked to change their votes and the NFL. Pa said No. You have you guys on that. That is true. Yeah I could. I can confirm that. Wes looked up and he said that technically they're number is four two thousand four hundred twenty three active interesting. I'm glad you guys have time to look up these things so by the way during the show that's stuff. I have to look up afterwards. I do not blame the NFL PA. For Sal Anybody. They cannot change their vote. If you if you weren't sure why determine your vote in before? The deadline agreed. That opens up an integrity thing of how you know. Once once the votes cast the player can't vote again but I don't know does it. Are they allowed to keep a record of what the player actually voted Right so you know what I'm saying. That's just one of those tricky things I believe they're voting by via email on it it's no it's electronically that. I've seen the name of the program that's being used but I can't remember what it is so it's Okay. Maybe it was a something was being sent out via email. Yes they had to get a secure link through an email that takes them you ever get an email that I get a season ticket holder for steelers where I have to tell you. They asked me to take a secure survey. You know what I'm saying. It's going to be something similar like that. That's a secure site that the only way you can get there is through the link emailed out so but like. I said I don't know if they keep track of the vote then be able to take that one away and go back so but I saw other people mentioned. Hey if you go out and do early voting in an election. You can't go back and say I changed my mind so it's just it's just one of those things it's unfortunate but probably for the integrity of the process. It's probably the right decision so well guys especially. There's you the live chat. Is You on Youtube? Those listening to podcast. We've God long tonight but man that's because we had flip with us we're having a great time flip it has been an absolute pleasure to have you on the show with us. We're really glad you could join us. Is there anything you would like to say? Closes out the biggest thing is I appreciate the offer you know I was. I was humbled by you. Know I I enjoy you. Know finally actually talking to some of the other writers you know and it was a great time you know I love writing for BTC. I'm just over my fourth year and the key is great. You know kidding to interact with with the youtubers is fun. It really is yeah. We're we're really glad that you came on with this. We're going to have to remember this when they're specific issues coming up or specific articles that you have is things that are important you know using using a guest spot here once in a while for you to possibly come back. Kevin when I come back and we're going to even look at some of the other writers that if they have anything they want to come on and talk about a lot of people were glad to have you. We were really glad to have you. It was funny when I when I told rich that that we might be Having some other writers for the sites he's like I said I upper going to have slipped. He's like he's like that's what I was hoping you would say. I had to say because I still live. My claim to fame right now is that I'm still flips signature line on the BT. Esi website when he went to you know I still get bashed your Stuff I said four years ago article issue problem with putting stuff out there on the Internet is it looks on forever. Yes no I mean. That's the thing I always. I was deemed a duck hater and a mason lover because I liked the pick when they picked Mason Rudolph back when I was even part of behind the curtain yet and I thought it was a good pick and resulted either. I was disappointed within this season. But that's just kind of I was flip. Looks like he's ready to show something he's got. He's got the duck season shirt or sweatshirt. Choicers my my nephew for Christmas. Right before the bills game at that game they'll get started and he's a course not a football fan but you know plus my little nephew for for getting a a. Duck Duck Gus. What's Your Anna Anna T-shirt You know we'll we'll see you know. I'll throw this out there for a little parting gift is we'll see we'll see how duck in and Rudy Square off in the preseason. Yeah we'll see how that plays out. I know I know you have your opinions. We'll save that for another time. Abso rich anything you want to send us out here tonight just Thanks for everybody's been out there. Keep things lively on the on the chat. it's always great everybody out there talking even when we're not getting to stuff people back and forth there with each other Good to say it's a great community guys. It's a great community and we appreciate. Hey make sure that you are tuning into all the podcast will have Jefferson Lance off for standards the standard tomorrow night steelers preview Thursday Lances. Yeah I said it Friday. No idea who's burning up with the question on Saturday. Then we're back with Jeff Lance homer in the hater. I don't know maybe flip. Flip might be able to identify with one or both of those. And then Brian and Tony who are also both writers with their show on Monday. And we'll be back here stat Geek on Tuesday. Make sure you're checking out behind the curtain dot com your one stop shop for all things. Pittsburgh steelers and when it comes to here with Youtube and podcast thank you all for tuning in Tele friend and subscribe. Thanks for Geeking out with us.

Pittsburgh steelers NFL League CBA football Kevin Greene PA pouncey twitter Youtube Deputy editor Pittsburgh Flip Fisher writer Sam Acho Union raiders Cpa
FC 131: The FrazlGhast Halloween Special

FrazlCast - A World of Warcraft Podcast

59:51 min | 1 year ago

FC 131: The FrazlGhast Halloween Special

"And welcome to come aboard the check check. Please make sure to keep your lives. An experimental instruments inside the train at all times and now on with the show The podcast by a blizzard fan know about world of warcraft. And geeky stuff. I promise you they do talk about the world of warcraft. They just go off. The rails sometimes casts ghastly goals and no mash welcome to gas. Here's Presley joined by Sei scrubs versus the world and Lady Eighty CEPA zone. We will have some Halloween fun from size ghost stories. Two podcast awards stories then Trivia. We know at at this releases after Halloween but the spirit of Halloween lives in our As you will be invalidated as of November I thank you Capito Antagon- Eh concerning for help with that intro. That was on mazing. I've been waiting to unveil that all week. It's like I said. Hey can you doing epic intro. He even said he went out of breath doing that. Version of the INTRO. That it's awesome so without further ado that's get holiday holiday numb drain. Soosai yes I hear that you have a few on occurrences that you. You can't explain. That have happened to you. I Have Buckling folks. You're going to think I'm crazy or this'll be refund. I don't know how to explain these stories. Get some background on me. I'm a pretty logical person I try to you know research things before I just jump to conclusions and try to find out all sides of the story these things I have no explanation for so so in the theme of Halloween Fresno I will tell my stories from back in the day that I and my family and friends insist have. Actually you know experience back when I was a junior in high school so this was two thousand two thousand one somewhere in there. I learned how to play Guitar. I was learning. I just had my amp for a couple months at this point and a and a half stack so for those. Who Don't know what a half stack is you know the big wallet? AMPs that the cool bands the rock and roll bands. Have Rages see stacks. Stacks of Marshall's and whatever. Yeah anyways a half stack is one of those with an amplifier head on top of that. It's about one hundred and twenty watts of appear awesome in my room and when you turn it up to one it would rattle the house. I would get home from school. Oh about two thirty three o'clock and I'd be the first one home so I be home alone until about four thirty five o'clock when my parents and my siblings got home from their stuff and I remember one day. The first day things started getting weird I go into my room. I turn my amp on. And all all the KNOBS were turned up to mack's power so this horrible feedback comes in and hurts my ears all that stuff so then turn it down. I was like Oh man. The hill was that way I I know I had like half because if I got any more than that it would be too loud too play. Because I didn't have headphones. I saw my siblings home. I can't guys who's messing with my aunt and my siblings. It wasn't me like you take me to school. I take my I brother and my sister takes the bus and she left half an hour later would never come in my room. So is it okay. That's weird so the next six day. Go back fix all my knobs and everything tournaments on and it's at full power only this time after I turn it down when I hear something walking in my parents room above me so I of course am like Oh. That's not good. There's so many in the House with me. I should be home alone so I run upstairs real quick in my parents room. And nobody's there some thinking okay. Maybe it's the heater maybe. So that's that's Kinda weird going out and playing guitar in over the next two weeks. This happened every day in the feet. Got Louder and they got louder. It was to the point where I would turn my guitar on to play it to round out the feet because the feet were stopping around and it sounded like at one point like people were jumping on the floor. Now's by myself so of course I'm freaking out so one day after I'm like all right. What is happening so I get my parents come home? It happened again and I might dad. There's something in your room and my dad is one of those straight laced like you can't get anything by him. mm-hmm everything's in your head kind of guy you know. I mean those Stern Dad's yeah and when it comes to this stuff like come on dude you're crazy and so he's like all right. Let's check it out. Because he just walked through the door he got home or early so he comes up and we go upstairs we go to open door. Most door was locked. Sarah's like Dang it your mom locked the door so so they called my mom and he's like hey. You locked the bedroom door. What are you doing? And while he's on the phone with him I go back to my room and I hear the footsteps again so my dad. There's somebody any in your room right now. And he's like no no there isn't so he comes down to my room and he hears the footsteps with me so he's like like what the hell so he's like duty. Call the cops and I'm like you're the dad here figured this out supposed to protect me. We finally finally go in. And it's one of those doors that has the little hole you can poke paper clip through and pop the lock on the other side and so we go up there and we pop the lock and sure. Now there's no one in there so he's like that. I don't know what just happened right there. I was like I don't know either. Data's trying to tell you so fast. Forward in the next day happens again and now my dad I call him his work. This time he had to stay a little late. My Dad there's somebody in your room again in the doors locked and so gets home. I wait for him to get home. Because we're not going in there because if there's an intruder I don't want to be murdered. That's not. Yeah yeah that doesn't sound like fun so we go and we tried to paper clip thing again and the door won't pop this time. We jammed it in their we tried. Safety pins ends. We tried everything we could to try to get this door open and it wasn't opening so my dad's like Oh crap. Okay well I know my windows unlocked. Get the ladder ladder and you and your brother go. Climb through the window. So he's like alright so me being the oldest on my all right Bro. You're going I you know I got your back. It's fine so we go. We pop the screen. We open the window and we get in well this time in the closet. The little cover to the crawlspace now has shavings. Like paint. SHAVINGS or drywall. shavings on the ground like somebody cut it open and it was a jar by brother and I see Oh hell now. We're getting out of here so we run. We opened the door and we go flying out like dad. Add do the things that jar we got stuff on the ground. It's get crazy. This is not normal so he wants my brother and I now get the latter part of the crawlspace early Dan. Oh Yeah you're not gonNA go. Yeah yeah no no. You're not gonNA send your teenage sons in potentially get eaten by whatever's out there right. He was going to do that. I was like Dad. You're the DAD right. You're supposed to protect US dude. And he's like he's doing everything in his power to not pop his head up so you're doing I don't want yeah. Yeah so we get the ladder. And he's like fine some. Give me a flashlight. So we get him a flashlight. Any beams the flash the site in the holy pops his head up and there's nothing there there is literally nothing up there and he's he has no idea why that was cut because it was sealed because we had another access point down the hallway. It freaked him out so now. We're all like what is going on so as friends come over they start seeing things things so my my brother was sleeping in the living room. Our cousins stayed the night one night. Will he heard so in our house to get upstairs we. We had more than staircases that you had to go up. Like seven or eight stairs have a little landing and then take a left in golf the rest of the way and he heard what sounded like somebody jumping being from the top down to that landing and so he comes flying into my room and he's like dude somebody. Somebody just jumped from the top of the stairs down to the landing and I'm like what it's like to in the morning and so of course we check it out is nothing there now. My Mom's freaked out in some mom is very much into the paranormal. She's very all that stuff. Like you ask goes to real yes hundred percent real. So she's like we need to get a wage board. That's the next logical step into this right so we go into my sister's room who had like a mere on her door like one of those mirrors and if fell off in it broke will in the door pattern and this is totally. I get that we see faces and things that could be a defense mechanism through evolution. Whatever but there is a clearly a face in her door that does not look very happy? Of course that freaks us out even more. We continue forth with this Ouija board session so we have myself my now wife. Who was my girlfriend at the time slash friend and my sister my brother and my mom and a couple of our other friends in my sister's room and we start this thing and I'm not on the board we start going through and of course we pick something up as you do when you do a Ouija board thing? All of a sudden my sister's closet door starts kinda creaking open. We're like okay. Maybe it's a gust of wind. Maybe the door jams not set right whatever so so we keep going. But we're we're still talking we asked to. Did you move the door. And of course it says no and something else happens. And I'm like I need to get out of here so I go downstairs downstairs and as I go down the stairs I hear everyone starts screaming like okay so I run back up the stairs and what happened. Was the closet door open. All the way slammed itself shut and then ripped itself back open now. It wasn't in there for that but there was probably ten people in there for that and they swear up and down to this day that that's what happened. Wow how so at this point. I'm not going in there again. That's sorry says Jerry you're on your own. Yeah we'RE FREAKING OUT SEVEN SALVIN couple weeks go by and more friends see things my girlfriend. She's my parents. Were cool. So like my girlfriend's stay the night with me my now wife stay with me. I'll an xbox in my room so she heard the xbox buttons clicking and then she heard the knobs on my amp start turning like back and forth and so she wakes out like she jolts awake and watching this stuff happen and then on other fun thing was my blinds just slow turned opened. I just looked like at that point. She wakes me up and why what's going on and my blinds were moving but it looked like the heating vent was hitting him. Yeah and I kept him closed all the time. Because I don't want my neighbor looking in my room as like. Why are they opened? Like what's going on here. So close them. That happened all the time. Apparently but I'd sleep through it because I had my music on and so finally before we move. I had my best friend sitting in the living room with me and it was just him and I in the House and and I was like dude. I don't know what is happening here. But there are some weird stuff happening and he was like whatever man like. I don't believe you everyone's talking about it. You're crazy. Basically right as he says that my sister's door slam shut relate but oh okay. Somebody's as in the house. Like maybe my siblings were gone or something. Yeah or you know. We'll have the window. It was middle of winter. So why would we leave the window open. And right as he goes he kind of looks at me like what was that and I was like dude. I told you we hear the DOORKNOB. Click swing open again and it slams and we're like Oh hell no for getting out of here so we get up. We just both out like we're done we're done with this and unfortunately a couple of months later I moved out but that man. Yeah I see why you would move out that I mean that's just like yeah. Perotti listeners. Even freaked out all the time and I'm not overselling it. I literally like I've got the chills all time but don't most people have certain stories like this with the house because I know I had a similar story with my main house that I lived in for years ears. Yeah it's possible. I mean there's all kinds of weird stuff out there a lot of people dying spirits kinda around so I would be left home alone a lot when I was a kid and I would hear things things that those are the voices in your head. We've gone over this. Oh Okay yes that that makes me feel a little better but still yeah. Wow at least we know that they like xbox and guitars right. Yeah so it was a friendly ghost like Scott crap out of us so ever since then you never found what it was or did you hear from people who have moved into the house no so after we moved out the people after after US managers normal folks. They're older and we asked our neighbors. I Hayes anything. Weird happened as we were friends with them. Still even though we moved and they haven't said anything run into the House screaming. So wow yeah mine was just a a little girl. Girl who liked to leave hairstyles everywhere. That's creepy did you omit hairstyles or were they. All so this is before I was born and and my mom just moved in with my oldest sister and apparently before my second sister was born my mom would constantly see see my younger sister talk to someone like someone who was there and anytime would ask her who you time to. She's like Oh oh no one just a friend. So it's like okay as an imaginary friend is it like what so didn't think anything of it. After my sister Mr was born she was kind of other sisters stopped talking to her. Just disappear when my mom was pregnant with me my other sister started talking to this invisible person ever since Sisters were talking to this person. Hair ties would be randomly left everywhere throughout the house and it wouldn't my moment never bought them didn't belong to us didn't belong to her neighbors. But there's these hair ties anyways. My mom asked my neighbors if there is anything going on like from the previous owners and they found out the reason why the previous owner wanted to sell is because their little girl all died on the way to the hospital she was had a fever and everything and so my mom checked up to being. Maybe this girl spirits on on the house. Her parents families left but she's still hearing these that comfort so she's going to my siblings to talk. Wow Yeah that is awesome. That's cool cool story. Yeah they might. Everyone has those little stories of the House. There's always young bring those bumps in the night like that. My mom has to who from when she was a little little kid and her's are more scary than mine like hers. The thing was trying to like come at them and do not bad things but it was like they felt threatened and endangered eventually career could have occurred event. Something bad oral normal little side note like I always joke like I don't know what I believe. Really Yeah but I always mess with my kids so and they start chanting. That's like the one thing thing that drives me crazy. I always say guys if you chant. That's how you summon demons like you want us to get demons. And so now they the little joke in our house. 'cause they caught on to me but I was talking with with Michael and and and I and Mike we had this course on the genome project. About how this is that something that you don't see you don't know that spooky thing I mean there's a reason why there's all these movies out there and go stories I I used to read books Williamsburg. One of the first one was saying in an old house. And there's an I in the hallway staring back at them and when I when I saw that I I slammed the book close I am done and yeah. I'M GONNA put a hair tie on that because I'm freaked out. I think freaked freaked out already. But we're going to be something that's even scarier on enough. It's scary but as these on appropriate photos you're gonNA show us next because has that would be very scary after dark here after excited. Yes so we talked with you one. Oh seven and it'd be good ask you for an update. What are some horror stories of things that have happened since we last talk things that would make podcasters wet? Their beds losing all their data. That is a good one. Yeah yes but for me the biggest one I have to say is I have released a few shows late being a BI weekly Kliesch show. Having inconsistency is not good the last one I did I had to release it a week late because my schedule was crazy and on a sick kid so I had no way of making it happen but yeah for the sake of consistency like I have to prepare better for that. Get on my edits earlier because I just don't know what my day to day is going to be had another one. I had to delay really bad because of vacation. I just didn't prepare. That's all scrub stuff no pun intended and new things. I've learned I know I mean I'm I'm I'm actually in this ready for a while. I'm gone for that very reason and I wanNA make sure I get out there 'cause I was talking about they. PODCAST accuster consistency is key. I have one day. I released my hours. I knock on. Keyboard have not released one past the you Monday yet. I know it's coming and it's going to happen at some point that people need to remember everyone has lives. Yes Oh yeah life happens yes song says you let explains that yet. This happen here. It is sorry play or sorry. Couldn't have in this week because you know life happens People need I understand that and it's the same for them as well and a coup thing is everyone's pretty understanding we see interactions. I've had so yeah. It hasn't been bad and as long as you tell your audience. That's why they can never be understanding. Yeah for sure. Other than my term of life happens people get a little cranky with that. What are some trump's you've had podcasting in your recent journey Launch an episode. Fifteen tonight and I know Mo- shows shows get that far so I think getting past the first ten staying with it has really been awesome pretty proud of that because usually like I'll start something and you know I won't finish it. You can ask my wife above that. I totally understand where you coming from. I have lots of great ideas I throw them at FRY's LII and freshly. They actually does something with them. 'cause I wouldn't have the ideas and that's as far as I am surprised at this. Show up to one hundred hundred episodes. It's one of my longest running projects. So I'm aw that were here now. Talking about ghosts in our addicts like that to talk about my closet. It's my follow through on stuff stuff. Does that's awesome way going out and getting past the first ten keep out. I think you're doing a great job and I like where the where the pike is going. I I like the stories. You bring up because thank you. That's works I didn't even the news. Sometimes it's the people the people behind right. I figure too that. There's so many new shows out there you know you got the unshackled. Fury guys got Scott Johnston's projects. He got pat cranes staff. You've got all kinds of great stuff out there and I want we're trying to capture the player like what what's your perspective because we can learn stuff from each other and do things that we enjoy and have a great time doing right. So I've been having a blast with Eliseo. Hopefully everyone else has to an alley. Says you do a great job. Thanks Allie and now that we've we've we've talked about scary stories of both the physical world and the podcast world and now that I'm I crawl back out underneath the desk. So Halloween is is fun for dressing up. What is one of our favorite costumes? We've ever dressed up best. Oh so the one I have yet to top one year my wife wife and I were the big bad wolf and Little Red Riding Hood and I went and got one of those little old lady nightgowns with the buttons breath and I made sure it was like a size and a half too small for me so the buttons were Canada Poland. A little bit and so out for coming out of there and then I had for are coming out of the the sleeves and I had the shower cap on what the wolf is coming out. That was my favorite one of all time. That's awesome about what you for. Most of my Halloween's I've usually dressed up as a black cat or a witch you know. Ak Myself I south Do you know the one that really stands out is the woman mom can help you make I was very ungrateful at the time where you know it was perfect enough or you know. She missed something or she's not making it fast enough or the material. She was horrible. Because that was material we could afford afforded the time. So you know I was being an angry child but I still have that in my closet. I don't fit it but I still have it in my closet because she made made it for me and she took the time and effort and making it the way I wanted be made which was great because I made the sleeves leaves one of those like wizard sleeves because as a witch outfit That was super long and very pointy and we put an extra fabric. And that was my bags for trick or treating is basically At the Candy in Manhattan and then I would put it in my sleeps like a wizard. Pretty major which it was like you said it was one of the greatest thing because I didn't have to carry a bag like everyone else. I had sleeps beg of hunting sleeves. What more could you want? That's fantastic. That'd be a great thing for need any dandy people who want to have a thing as well I mean I mean you going to continue with your with your kids. It's it's basically if you ever watched the new like shows. Like Games of thrones like even on the books they were saying that they reach into their Sleeves and pull out the thing that they needed as like how many pockets are in those sleeves get thrown the not usually wearing clothes different different characters. Okay okay but even in the books is like their sleeves everything you need in these leaves their bags of holding and yes you just Kinda fish around and figure out with your grabbing. 'cause you know governor thing yeah telera dry. It's for later on in life when smuggling small bottles into venues found a fun way talking yet that we don't condone that. Oh Yeah I like that. You mentioned the loving care on on the cost because my mom when I was little made me a Jonathan deficit malicious costume and like it was so cool I got not much is to go with the first but much asked me look evil so we did. You have a lot of hidden pockets on Youtube with this outfit. No it was just it was just the Cape but like she's spent all October working on it so it was one of those. It meant so much to me because I she she she got the fabrics. You did all that. I've always remember that is like the love and the care I mean it. It's why it's one of my favorite favorite memories along with costumes. What is a favorite memory? You've had from Halloween. So my favorite Halloween memory. It was probably five five or six is like the first memory. Have Halloween and we lived on this Super Steep Hill. So we're we're talking like hills of San Francisco Cisco Steep but it wasn't in San Francisco. My Dad gets us to the bottom. My brother and is when my brother was really little. We're at the bottom and I remember him just standing at the bottom of the hill looking going and so he grabs my brother and I under both arms and he starts hiking the ever. He's like just don't drop your candy. We have our bags zoo picture. This you know thirty five year old dude to kids and underarm holding bags of candy up over ahead over trying not to spill it. It was pretty funny. You need the sleeves withholding we did. We needed those in two thousand nine hundred thirty five thousand five. I Dunno if I could carry two six year olds up a hill. He was dead when he got to the top. He had to stop a couple times looking back. I'm GonNa just hilarious because I've done stuff like that with my own kids so like they're like two two can't walk anymore so I got two kids on both shoulders firemen style. Oh yeah all right still spill your candy. How about you? I saw a little bit background with me is my my parents basically raised me and Mississippi's atheists but it doesn't mean they are atheists so my mom is actually a wiccan. So I kinda hind got a bit of the wiccan influence. We also have Jewish and our backgrounds. got a little bit of you so I was brought up to appreciate every religion for the reason. Why bring up the wicked one was One of my favorite memories of growing up with my mom is actually a celebrating a man with a mummy cheer taking part of that and what it actually represents where. It's kind of saying all right. We write things on paper of things that we want to burn All the negative stuff that we don't want it in the upcoming year and we would plant a list of things that we do want to come in the coming year and it's kind of like just saying let's get rid of the negative and grow the good. Yeah so it was just kind of like a nice little tradition that we would do and I will obviously miss the trick or treating and my mom is a huge Halloween person person so our house was always the epic best. One the to the point where you get like a six year old crying there is out because they can't take five steps onto the property because they're scared that's awesome the parents trying to coke some Tom. Everything's thanks fine. And then the kids get to the door and the say tributary knock on the door and then this big giant spider falls down right on top of their head. That is awesome so how I think I'm still has piper. And yes. She's awesome she. It planted right above so it would drop around your head but in between her and stuff. So you wouldn't know is there until it's too late yours. Hundred reminds me of I was a kid going to your house. I'd be terrified terrified because one of my favorites has to be when I when my sister and brother-in-law were watching me once for we can in Indiana so on the TV. There's an advertisement for hunting house at the local children's museum and the all I ended up before I mean I think it back Mike. How's that event you maybe thinking mansion you know we're the we're the joyful goes and we'll we'll hitchhike with you the deduct the I mean you know I I think it can be bad? I told my sister the parents had taken me to your house before she was Kinda unsure but was like okay so she went on on whatever saying we get there and going through gathering effort I cried streamed at every turn and I have never wanted it. Goes back two hundred house ever since. I got a friend who we've to universal on the night that they were doing. How in Orlando Man? I said you can go. I'm not going I've seen activities. I would be just be crying my eyes out I would love to I. Love haunted. Houses Vancouver has amusement park and they do fright right night and I would love to go to it if they didn't have like an half an hour to an hour lineup for each of the haunted houses. They there's way too takes and let too many people go in at once into the part which makes it not enjoyable when they first did it and it was not very well known it was amazing and an and there's just a regular nursery but they do a haunted house every year and I go every year and I just love it he would. It's Potter's others odd nursery. So if you're in Vancouver definitely of not getting paid to say let's go and the changed our. I think they give you two hundred houses now where it used to be just one big one. It's a lot of fun. I think they have raised the price which sucks but yeah it's great and I'm one of those people that will go to a corn maze at night. I don't I I went to one last night. Actually it's so much more fun at nighttime it's harder in the daytime is so easy 'cause you can see where the paths that everyone aches aches and night. Time is the best time to go. I wanted to join in the daytime at corn. Mazes when you're the only person there and nobody else is around I mean I. It's already creepy enough. Enough Times in the scarecrow that's walking around and wants to make friends with you by giving and capital says that they used to a the annual haunted house at Jacksonville and they spend more time laughing. At how lame. They are than being scared of everything that I also have it. They when I go to your haunted houses houses. Because I do go with friends I have to be in Fret that just my little tweak and I have to have someone behind me because I have this big fear someone stabbing me in the back of your humour. Okay being the first on scared. Yeah so the the other person is going to be the victim behind me not me so I'm good because I can't see what's behind me and I mean that's smart did there's a place round US called Hunted Hospital and waiver saying it's okay to throw you out a second story window because there's a net catching you but they can throw you out a window. I'm afraid of heights. It's yeah I'm afraid of heights to and I think you should be afraid of our next thing. So voters took interesting so we want better okay so far so subtle clear questions go home and I think we can learn some facts about Halloween and how a fun along the way whoever enters first multiple choice. So it's a little bit easier but for I guess the question first and if we can't figure it out then give us multiple choice. Okay do we like a buzzer. OR YOU'RE GONNA ask US individually about this just for fun and just make the sound from Dover and rising. I was possessed. Okay so you're on your own on what you want to say. I'll just do the dumb. And dumber sound down. Okay so the first Jacqueline was made out of what. Let's see. I think it was. I turn ups. Yes actually knew that one point so then according to partition if you stare into mirror at midnight a halloween. Who would you see buddy? Mary aunt wrong. If you stare into the Mirror yes at midnight at Halloween. Oh four this one bloody Mary your future spouse your death or dead ancestors that wrong. Long thinking I'm going dead ancestors wrong. Okay so it's not because I said that It's not that was the number two option. Okay I'll give you that be. Where did Halloween originate man? Yes I'm gonNA say Germany incorrect. I'm going to say United States dates demere America incorrect options share. Do it Englund. America Scotland or Ireland. Yes England wrong wrong. I'm going to Ireland correct. Yes yes I got one. There's a lot of traditions that we still like to turn up. One comes from Ireland a lot of that stuff we still celebrate. Imagine carving attorney do those things are creepy. Have you seen those. Yeah out like a Pumpkin did just carve the faces into them. Google real quick man. It is a good time. I'm going to look at it. I'm looking at it right now. I almost want to bring that back because that is too good. Well Yeah Yeah Yeah. Yeah Yeah Yeah don't go. Wow I'm glad we went to WHO Pumpkins was American thing because turnips weren't really native here but Pumpkins were scary. Things are great our show. Our work work is a Pumpkin Nice for the next one. Which is the top selling candy for Halloween man on before where from top American? It doesn't say is this top selling candy and CY. I'm GONNA see recess Wrong I'M GONNA say Candy Corn Correct Amazon and kick him up but man I. I like Halloween okay. I was totally going to study for this and I just didn't have time. That's all right. Always got to study eight kids at home study. I just don't do your homework. Kids yes and don't mind the weird sounds up in your attic or watch out for those hair ties. Yes how many witches were burned at the stake in the Salem witch trials. Yes thirteen incorrect. The Salem witch trials specifically typically or we go on like that whole era. It just says I'm going to say eleven fraz incorrect. You'RE GONNA give us a multiple choice. Thirteen in twenty thirty three or none Trick Emma twenty wrong. I'm going to say thirty. Three wrong does not say none an end. This I've I forgot to mention on purpose it has which is in quotations See and I do that too. Yeah Okay So. The average American household spent how much on Halloween candy each year. The enter is scary. The average American American household. Yes two hundred your high boiling pretty far. You said I would be surprised or you would be surprised. Every average households done st l. the streets. I mean candy business making a sweet prophet. I'M GONNA go a little bit off of what what is spent which was twenty five dollars and ninety nine cents higher. Yes e- I would normally spend about sixty dollars dollars lower fifty six dollars. Thirty five higher forty-five forty-five lower for two. There's only forty four forty four. I did Ford. Were we sent at the same time so I think we both get half but we get a half. Yeah Okay let me do a dash there. You go perfect okay. So far lady. Emma's winning it's not good folks only gets great and learning at home. So what was the first raft. Penny Candy in America. Yes it's that liquorice thingy that's which sting arterioles just took the roles. I never I didn't think analogy when I see those with licorice which things and you know what if you had the video right now you see me like trying to twist it off from like you know all those things and see like when they get all caught on there. I mean if you had it done so it almost melted into the thing like yeah. Did you notice zero. Saved an army thing. 'cause they're tank was leaking and all that and they end appointed see roles on the tank. Aw I have to find the article not doing it. Justice it I believe a deal which day of the year has the highest candy sales else. Yes October thirty first wrong. Which Day yes you want an actual date right yes? I'M GONNA say October thirtieth wrong okay. you sure. I'm sure in October. Fifteenth Wrong Dunedin any hints. Now taking guesses and always says never I and that's wrong too. Let's see here. It's Halloween theme so it's probably not Valentine's Day. No one ever gives me candy on Valentine's Day. Now that's a big. They want to go tober. Twenty fifth wrong. Did I say I've Tober I. I don't know but it's wrong to hit. It's okay for you to phone a friend here. Okay naming naming naming okay. You are calling Josh Josh. I I hate it here on that. tweet state Josh Josh. You're doing a great job. And he told are scary stories. Wh the Josh what's win. What's the date of the highest candy sales? I know this one I cool so I have residual and teacher said that they always say by not on our over twenty eight. That's when they charge devices the band. Okay I gotta go sorry. I'm yeah he was asking aside. Well let's do it. Let's go October. Twenty eight th. You are right charity answer. I appreciate it. I love it and tolerate says I worry about jobs. Education rather taste bombing I. I wasn't channeling. You know. No no no no. That's fantastic so the one point nine billion and candy sales. How much of it is from Chocolate Candy Joe Silva if you ever need any more help helper later on do you wanNA percentage or do you want like dollar figure rough dollar figure up? I'll give you close to this answer. Sure okay One point nine billion and candy. That's a lot. Yeah that is a lot lady do. Would you like to go first over half a Billion Alina. I'm bad with numbers. I'm totally about with numbers. Okay I WANNA say it's seventy five percents but I don't know at seventy five percent of one billion is currently seven hundred and fifty million. Yeah thank you Emma's boyfriend. My master go with that. But it's not that he was correct by the way the seventy five percent of one billion that is but I'm going to go with chocolate only right like chocolate covered over candies. Yup I it's just chocolate candy man. I would not be good on a game show either a million dollars. I'm going nine hundred thirty. Two million seven hundred fifty eight thousand two hundred and thirty two and twenty five cents for the win very specific if we were on the price right. I think you would be close. Sousse go over it under. So is it one million one billion or whatever it's one billions closer it's like one point one billion closer. Is it ninety nine nine whatever. How many nine point nine million? I think. That's that's lower but I'm gonNA just say Emma. MSN One point two billion one point two. Okay yeah that makes sense. I think that's what you're saying and you and your answer I in my math is bad so bad. So the days after Halloween account for what percentage of the Year Candy Sales Mac. Yes because has Christmas and Valentine's Day are big Easter's big too. I'M GONNA say it accounts for thirty percent. You went over fifteen percent over. Oh Wow let's go. Eleven percent close. Okay I will. I'll say ten percent correct. I'm sorry so sorry. Says he's close. I'm like it's always fair so I'm sorry that's all right you know. I'm giving an effort hundred then. So what does the English word hollow mean. You're yes to say how eve hollow. Yes hallo isn't it yeah. I'm stuck at Halloween Eve like Ev. I'm giving you. I wanted my hands in prayer a now Saint Holly. Yes yes missing the Saint. Okay I got where you were going with all also all Saints Eve. So that's why I give you that so I wasn't just trying to make Cy Losing A. I'm sorry it's okay right. So what phobia do you suffer from if you have an intense fear of Halloween yes I'm GonNa win a wild one here and go all hallows. Wean a phobia for the win and and close to Lamia Phobia Advisors says were wrong pumpkin spice phobia who hate trump gets mice. Come on it's good. I don't I love it. I see I know I knew where wolves one which is Lupin Phobia I think that's what it was Lupane none of the answers of the uh-huh snuff grounding the Halloween. Oh well Gordon Phobia. You're going outside Enya India and for this one you going to candy so of course. You'RE NOT GONNA be pretty well side by side but I want candy data phobia. I get as I got to. I will read off of the options. Pass move phobia. Sam Hainault Phobia. It'd be is beyond correct. You actually practiced Kazue though I had no idea. So this next one and I'm gonNA play right now. A cheap knock offs version of this movie soundtrack. One that I got the royalty not re- free rights to excellent so halloween. The movie was made in nineteen seventy eight on a low budget in. How many days yes thirteen? That would be awesome but not see. If I remember correctly it was not very long but I don't remember that number someone a wing one here. Yes and I'm GonNa go scabby something weird. Like seven days Attica edible sevens to it maybe or at least seven plus or minus a few. It's twenty one correct while I mean it was a factor of the answer. I accounts for something right. Okay have we have we. I give you these points again. I really should be letting you get some of these action. Now go for the kill every time. Never give up Bob. That's how you know. Yes and according to legend a universal tattoos in a long finger where are all signs of which Halloween Creature Unit Brown. Where we'll come right? So now we know that that where wolves have you Nebraska's and has a really long middle finger and which celebrity. It does not have a halloween birthday. And I'm GonNa let off because this is a cool fact Vanilla Ice Dan Rather Peter Jackson or Kevin Bacon. Yes Kevin Bacon Correct Sam. That's what I was GONNA say. I got it right so I gotta say side aside. I'm never going to tally up the stuff because it's it would be scared I. We've already been scared tonight. So I'm just GonNa say that Emma you want John and you a Jon Norris Bucket of your favorite Halloween Candy. The only issue is you'll never be able to finish it. So what is your favorite mister big Mr Pick Ferrari mister big. You haven't had a Mr Bean bag. Okay it's like a wafer in in the middle and there's Caramel and there's chocolate above the around that I gotta look to south sounds delicious. How how do you not have mister bigs there there? I don't know I know I'm just glad you're going to google it and you're GonNa get porn but I got a bunch of of a popstars. Does a song mister big. Oh It's cadbury made Mr big okay. I can't no well. It's not. It's which no because it's one big giant barreds. Mister big look like a giant turn. I'm sorry no the tight turned is tootsie. Roll pops when you get the big ones and you warm up and then you put on top of the cat. The cat litter cake and the letter take is like Brownie on the bottom. Then Moose in the middle and you get the white orioles and you pound them up and you get a small section of it and you die those little bits green and then you mix it up with had it makes it look like cat order and then you put the two zero pops. Not that I have done this wild. Oh I totally see that being thing when I was a kid touchy role. Jokes were always on the table and it gets very hands I mean Oh yeah when you're a kid you don't care though you're just making a turn laughing at it so yeah well I wanNA thank you both for joining me on Frederick Tonight. It went by fast but we had a great time. I was so fun. So where can we find you on the interrupts. We will start with cy so you can find me on twitter at scribes verse. That's my show or you can find a I personal twitter which is at Sira Underscore Kate O.. C. N. at see why are you be under a KFC and you can find the show on Itunes spotify stitcher and pretty much everywhere. Else has subscribes for soil. So if you google that pop up for working we find you. You can find me on twitter at lady underscore Emma and that's the main place you can find me and I am barring only one place. I know facebook. I don't do well. I Have Avenue campus. Yeah so you can pretty much find me on twitter all the time anytime google. Or you're the Halloween Trivia champion. So maybe you've got that going for you well well. Halloween is my favorite time of year. That's true it's mine too. But my trivia skills wouldn't show that activated off Offi border. Why Am Beckham Iron forward until so we one day reclaim nor gone? So I'm packing my bags right now as we speak but remember clean underwear phone charger but you know what I got a time for a few things. Let's look at what has been happening in the community awesome. Let's do that. There's a lot of the comedian. Bliss Konin virtually from home. So this record early in the week so I could be gone. But here's what I saw before I left you will see a ton of great content creators with all. The news was announced Rome maintenance. Release podcast over the weekend again. The live recording of the weekly reset which is tell us inevitable's weekly awesome series on Youtube all hosted the way I am speaking of the past year. I have no global it but I know it wasn't a shit show and is bounded video by Roman about the process of rebuilding. Wow inside of unreal engine. Four four wiktor is working on right now unreal. How well this looks? I'm a huge proponent of the creative outlets it's changed my indictment of Lao or the better this community beauty is what keeps me going and why I made us a huge focus of this show adding Nomi here one final change. We were finding as we were working on this episode the Final Prize Pool for the MDI in WC will now be six hundred sixty thousand dollars as combined but this has been increased with the direct support part of the east porch toy. So thank you community for the awesome job supporting each sports. Well there's been another pack of proudly cast. It was a lot of fun. I'm so oh God. I talked with science. I just had a fun time. Not goofing off you know. Having A I was a little scared though those things twitch oh you should see my reactions Catholic democratic questions were gold savage recounting his experiences. And we've got up. Let's go reaction different. Set with Alli Regio and the scruffy do it. That will be recording this this Thursday at nine pm Eastern and then. We'll go out on Monday. So for a little. While Thursdays things are always subject to change for different guests. Like that any diva shout at two sixty pierce who said that they loved my videos. This was a comment today. One Thirteen about confidence and genital Gamer who put it on the side of the storm. The so-called looking like I know that name I know they wait it's like that's that's our guys feel so cool. I've saved that to my phone chatter career who said that I have the best segues and they were talking with Allie about how they wanted to see me on a segway riding around on though I I'm glad it never happened because I can be dangerous on Segues I was on the Morley great podcast. Patron exclusive podcast. How have you seen that? And we discussed the nineteen seventy eight movie. Halloween definitely consider supporting them to hear this episode. Plus all the episodes like fast hundred mile high and pulp fiction and plus they do an amazing podcast. And while you're while support and Jim Muller Great podcast I'd like to thank those who have supported this show financially. They can make twit subs out there. Brandon's Mr Alley Capito. Chris Thick Nick Darke easy Mac. Jensen Michael navix. Pete Raza Risk Space Budgies Stone Cronk Tele Rod Thorn Watson's zero seven one five wicket kitten thirteen and -sorts and they get a Capito scrappy -sorts for the bits. If you ask what this show financially please go to support art done known. PODCASTS DOT COM. If you have twits Prime Amazon prime you can use your free twix Reps Gibson on my channel or any other out there and support some awesome creators all of your support. Port goes up sporting this labor of love. Thank you so much why am frazzled could find the show at no podcasts. Dot Com until next week. When we go well Oh my goodness over blitz gun news be awesome? Apply Bucks lead to affected area Bucks World of warcraft. Questions this edition of aspects. -Ly this questions about housing to whom it may concern. We'd like to offer you a chance. Sorrento place in downtown over Mar.. It's within walking distance of the bank and auction house in a shirt walked. Most other things you might enjoy this location has had four four previous owners half of which are still alive which is pretty good odds. It recently came available after last owner. Left town under hurry. You can have all the stuff she left behind. And we're about sixty percents. Sure none of it's cursed or would do you any harm but if you find something like that you're certainly welcome to keep it as an ED bonus. If you move vendrell at you. Direct a large group of trolls ORCs Tarin blood. ELVES Goblins Death Knights forsaken. Had PANDERA NHS they'll mostly pay attention to what you had to say. We're pretty sure. The previous owner honor will be gone for good but we could use your help if she shows up again. Please let me know if you're interested. Signed Zebbie boy. ps four the horde. You you know I have been thinking about moving into larger place. Come to think of it. I had a place in my car. I could pay wait a minute. I see what's going on here. He's trying to trick me into becoming the horde leader no way

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A Noob Whale Picker's Market (EP.143)

Animal Spirits Podcast

45:56 min | 7 months ago

A Noob Whale Picker's Market (EP.143)

"Welcome to animal. Spirits show above markets life and investing join Michael Baton. Nick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what? They're reading writing and watching. Mike Batt Nick and Ben. Carlson worked for RITHOLTZ wealth management. All opinions expressed by Michael Ben or any podcast. Guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of ritholtz wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes. Only and to not be relied upon for investment decisions clients else. Wealth management maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to animal spirits. Michael and Ben. It is Thursday morning. Weekly jobless claims three point eight. Three nine million bringing the total up to thirty million. I believe US personal spending plummeted by a record. Seven point five percent in March again. This just goes to what we were saying that all these charts are going to be busted forever. They also showed the personal savings rate which shot up to seven percent to thirteen point one percent. That's the highest has been since nineteen eighty-one as far as savings go. How did they get these personal servings rates? This is the survey conducted via twitter. I think it's kind of like a plug in number. It's the Kinda number I think that can be revised in the future so I don't take it for Gospel but it kind of makes sense in a way if bending down a lot you'd think for some people saving had to go up a little bit. I think again. It's probably just plug number two. Maybe we'll get revised lower. The stock market is finally. I guess selling off one of these claim numbers Natal chewed higher but regardless over the past five weeks the stock market has just been on a tear. Small caps are a close to forty percent. I think it was thirty. Seven percent as of calls yesterday. Yes and P. Five hundred is up thirty three percent. I mean I couldn't find anything that saw a dead cat bounce like this could you know. Hold on. I'll come back. I just want to say so personal spending again. Seven point five percent decline in two thousand nine. It looks like it fell one and a half percent right. Yeah so again. This chart is just completely busted forever. Okay so members that thing that we ran about from south matre probably three weeks ago that there's never been a bear market. Rally like this. There's no precedent for this. Wouldn't it be so twenty twenty for this to be an unprecedented bear market rally? That rolls over. We just keep setting records and so many things that have never happened before happening. Now would it surprise you overstocks rolled-over no not at all uncharted territory has to be an all time high right now. In terms of the usage rate because everything experienced now is just. It's yes is off the charts. It just doesn't comprehend so honestly the fact that this is happening so hard and fast. I don't know it almost makes sense because no one knows what to think in the extrapolation is just I mean. I don't know how far people are thinking. Some people are worried that the stock market is thinking too long term like it should be thinking more short-term other people are worried that were not paying attention to what's going on. I understand being confused here. Do you think though that some investors at this point should say you know what? Maybe it's time for me to just have a more open mind after all this because there were so many people who are certain of what was going to happen in. It didn't happen. Maybe instead of trying to blame people were blame forces outside of your control. Maybe just have a more open mind and say you know what maybe my view of the world is not the correct way to look at this anymore. That's not gonNA happen. Well okay maybe the view of the world thing but just having a more open minded saying. Maybe I shouldn't be so certain about these things anymore because how many people were certain that this was going to happen in. Let's say would people been placated? If stocks went down fifty percent. But then had a fifty percent rally obviously. That's not an apples to apples. Comparison in terms of making back as many gains as we've made back now but if it would've gone down further would have been happier even if it would have shot back up just as fast. What's confusing is that stock had been rallying on these releases so on the first big jobless claims number that we got I think stocks were up six percent and three percent the next time and then one percent the next time and maybe stocks around because the numbers a little bit less bad than expected but obviously stocks don't rally because jobless claims are high. They fell in anticipation of them. Rising and now. They're just recovering because expectations are being reset right in the way that this goes bad is people are saying well. The unemployment rate is probably going to be higher than wasn't a Great Depression which was like twenty five or twenty six percent. The thing the depression was it was above twenty percent through the entire decade of the thirties until like nineteen thirty nine. So that's the case. Where if it stays elevated for that long then we're really really big trouble and if it doesn't snap back within a couple of years or something a little bit then that's when we're in big trouble but I put this out on twitter yesterday. Do you think the past ten to twelve years is the hardest market. It's ever been outperform if we're talking about just the overall US stock market which is basically lazy s p five hundred or Russell. Two thousand. I don't think you could make the case that it's never been hard outperform. So there was a char this Goldman showing market breath and this is measured by the percent below fifty two week high. S. and P. Five hundred less than median stock. And Right. Now we're at the lowest breath that it's been in quite some time and what's going on. Well we know what's going on. The giant mega cap stocks are winners. And if you're not at least equal to them then you want the performance. Pretty much simple. The caveat would be like people say well if you own the big tech stocks than your outperforming but I mean okay. Sure that sounds easy but maybe the point is just owning. The market has just shown to be just such a hard strategy to beat for the last pretty much since two thousand eight and this period has not made it any easier like a lot of people were hanging their hat on the risk management thing. And I'm going to perform much better when a bear market finally hits. And that's when these things are GONNA shift and change and that hasn't really happened yet so I'm sure there's a lot of investors out there who are not just the people who were waiting for fifty or sixty percent drought but people who have legitimate strategies are probably pulling their hair all right. Now that it's not really going their way. I can totally sympathize with that well because the biggest stocks just keep getting bigger and it's justified so we got earnings reports from Google facebook and Microsoft. This week apple is coming out after the bell today and all three of them are humming along they're really seen very little disruption in their business. So it's not that. Investors are flocking to the tech stocks because momentum were price chasing whatever. Their businesses have held up the best. So it's like a double whammy. Yeah this is not the DOT com bubble where these companies are growing at ridiculous growth rates. And it's totally detached from reality in this. It actually makes a lot of sense so last week. We were talking about this idea that maybe this will change People's preferences for owning a house. I'm not sure that I'm sold on theory but there was an article in CNBC showing that home sales signs of recovery. Here's a quote from the article. We're still down roughly sixty five percent but more positive news is coming out of the new home market particularly for builders who are targeting the first time an entry level buyers. She noted that a wave of renters are leaving their apartments and eyeing new homes. Don't you think that that would actually make sense that someone would want a new house at this point in? If they're turned into some sort of GERMOPHOBIC that it would almost make sense so Utah to Logan Mohtashami this week about the fact that he's been claiming in predicting that twenty twenty two twenty twenty four when we're gonNA see this huge wave of more kneel homebuyers and that was in a youtube video that will post in honestly again. I can see for that segment of the population. This being the catalyst for pushing them into wanting to buy a home and so I could actually see this where we could see. Maybe overall the market doesn't move much but for certain segments. I actually do think it makes a lot of sense. Yeah I think a lot of this is just like Logan was saying demographics. So I forget what the age cohort is. What is it twenty? Six thirty is now the biggest piece of the population. So maybe it was just time. And so maybe it's time and it's a combination of the Cova. Just kicking that into third gear. Maybe this because there are going to be fewer people listing. Because there's not gonna be open houses or anything for a while and maybe a lot of this moves online. Maybe the market clearing price doesn't go down as far for real estate as people think because the supply is going to be constrained in anyone who does Wanna buy a house there. There's going to be way more competition what we've spoken about this in the past that housing tenure is at an all time. High people are moving us much so from that article. They said that there is way. More supply of newly built homes actually twice the supply of new than existing home sales at this point. I'm doubling down and my theory of people if they don't WanNa move then doing some work to their house because the fact that you're just in your house more in able to see things that are wrong that you wanna point out that properly just staring in the face every day for two months. I mean I think our house in two months having all three kids home all. The time has probably aged. I Dunno three years from them being home for two months and just basically I just feel like my day. I just feel like I'm cleaning everything all the time. All we do is cleaned. Yeah we basically cleaned the same. We bought a new vacuum. Because we're using it so much. I think our old one broke down. We basically clean the same room in our house. We have like the open kitchen family room area. We probably clean that room six times a day. It feels like groundhog day. Where EVERY MORNING? I wake up on the empty the dishwasher. I am definitely get into point where I wake up. It takes a while for our data's underst- like wait. What were definitely at that point or the Washer Journal banks could prove week partner in the krona vars recovery. So there's a lot in here. I'm just going to read some of the changes. In regulations and market infrastructure. That made bank safer than they were in. Two thousand also made them less effective basic job moving money from those who have to those who need it. Which could be a drag on the nation's recovery sharp swings and treasury bond prices in March showed market to their breaking point so the Fed stepped in where banks no longer could buy treasuries even faster than it did in two thousand nine? Jp Morgan chief economist said the Fed is now the Commercial Bank of last resort for the entire economy. Hasn't that always kind of been a job though? The banker of last resort. But now it's commercial banker so okay. They were the backstopping now. There are commercial bank facilitating lending stuff again. I think if we didn't have two thousand eight before this I think we would be an even bigger world of pain than we are because I think the Fed really learned some lessons from the two thousand a crisis and what went on and how to work with banks. I think if that didn't happen they would not be acting swiftly as they are right now and I think things would be a lot worse than they are. Actually well look at that chart so yeah we did learn a lot in two thousand eight. Because there's a chart. Showing percent of assets that banks hold and the amount of reserves and treasuries and say security has skyrocketed due to regulation so the next article pairs nicely with this one. This is also from the Wall Street. Journal think this was Hilton rather than somebody else. The Federal Reserve is changing. What it means to be a central bank by lending widely to business states and cities in its effort to insulate the US economy from the corona virus pandemic. It is breaking central taboos about who gets money from the central back in a crisis on what terms and what risks it will take about getting that money back so they talked about the fact that they're six hundred billion dollar main street. Lending program is filling a need and so they said obviously the government is helping out small businesses of the P P P stuff and they're also helping out really large businesses with some bailout money but no one was really helping out the small and mid sized and the Fed is offering four year loans through the banks and they basically said we're trying to help these businesses that are too big to qualify for the small business loans but too small issue debt. And I feel like they're just plugging holes here and doing whatever they can to fix things there lennon directly to small and mid sized businesses and again the people talk about bailouts but these are loans. They're not just giving the money away and saying here take it. It's alone these companies self to pay back so it's not like it's it's completely just not all their lawns. A lot of urges grants not from the Fed. The Fed is charging loan. The grant stuff. That's from the United States government. The Fed is charging loans in Powell says in here he says none of us have the luxury of choosing challenges facing history. Provide them for us. Our job is to meet the test. We were presented. That was good. That was really really impressed. Me I know people hate on the Fed and but I think the stuff he's doing is probably helping things not get worse than they potentially could as things already bad. But here's a potential unintended consequence that we've been speaking about. Oh by the way. Speaking of unintended consequences. I had another one. Did you do your push ups yet today not yet? Kobe is now fully potty trained which is obviously good but he used to till seven o'clock every single morning every single morning. He slept past seven o'clock now every single morning he wakes up at six. Am on the DOT. And says I have to go deep so he won't be in his diaper anymore so great. He's potty trained by the unintended consequences. Now we have to wake up with wake up an hour earlier. Here's what Howard marks says to you. He says the fact that something could have negative unintended consequences doesn't mean it's mistake exactly so potty train was the proper thing but what I was getting at was this so this is getting political as it inevitably was going to because now ted Cruz sending a letter to Mister Powell. Asking the Central Bank to come up with ways to lend to oiling. Guess companies that have too much debt to qualify for existing fed programs. Can you imagine being in the government and asking the Fed for money when the government can do this themselves? Why don't blaze do it? But this is the thing obviously cruises from Texas and his home state is getting battered. So I understand why he's doing it. But that's the thing were they. The government doesn't want to show that they're taking on more debt so they want the Fed to do it for them and that's again like I think the Fed is like the adult in the room here and they're doing whatever they have to they can because the federal government probably isn't holding up there under the bargain to keep things afloat as much as they could even though they they have done a lot spending. They probably are going to need to do more. There's some really good charts in here in terms of what the Fed is doing. Of course people are sending this chart all over the place in terms of the Fed's balance sheet relative to GDP which has skyrocketed and this is a lot of fodder for the bears. But if you look at the next one the rapid response it shows a change in holdings of fed assets since the start of each program. So shows q one q three and what we're recently going through and what we're recently going through as everybody knows is off the charts just straight up in a matter of that's the thing that is crazy. How fast they react. This is the inverse of the chart that I created that fastest bear market ever. Yes every Chari now is like that but they also show here. They said rates were just above two percent. Fed began lowering them in mid two thousand eighteen leaving much less room to cut in the past. Don't think showing that yeah. The interest rate it was low but it doesn't matter they can do so much other stuff that cutting interest rates wasn't going to do anything anyway so the fact that they're buying these bonds and they're making these loans that's much more important than cutting interest rates in giving themselves more room to do that. The interest rate at this point is it doesn't matter basically. I think Powell also said in a press conference that they are not out of AMMO. Of course they're not they can literally push a button in Crete money out of thin air. They're never going to run. Amel sticking with the theme of markets just working so much quicker now. Cumulative outflows from emerging markets following a major risk events so. They showed the global financial crisis. And they show what's going on. Today and investors are just ripping money out of emerging market economies at a rate. That looks like I dunno five times as fast as they did previously. But then there's other areas. I guess they're being selective. Some countries are able to raise money so for example Indonesia sold four point three billion dollars of bonds in April including the one that will come do for fifty years. And then it said. The bond rallied on secondary markets with a yield taking down to four point. Five from four point eight when it was issued so that got me thinking our markets so liquid financial is that you could issue anything literally anything there could be a market on what Portnoy's PNL would be and that would get traded. Guess yes how many degenerate gamblers do you think have moved from gambling to the markets at this point? I think you're right. I mean they've turned markets into you can bet on who the president is going to be. We talked about buying shares in an art a couple of weeks ago you can buy shares of cars. I think sure anything can be franchised. So this debt thing the fact that people are buying high-quality debt. I threw a piece this week and I gave you my theory behind. It I said isn't the simplest explanation for the fact. The stock market has been so resilient just that interest rates are so low. I looked at it. If you look back at any starting point over the last fifty or sixty years the income you can earn on ten year Treasury has been much higher so currently it's sixty five basis points so that means if you had a million dollar portfolio your raking in sixty five hundred bucks a year from current rates on a ten year Treasury in one thousand nine sixty that was close to fifty grand in nineteen eighty over one hundred grand even in one thousand nine hundred. Eighty two thousand two thousand. It was sixty seven thousand even in two thousand ten thirty seven thousand so the fact that this is the Tina argument. Obviously there's plenty of holes. You can poke in that the fact that but my ideas like money has to go somewhere by the way tuna means. There is no alternative in. Obviously that theory doesn't hold water all the time because stocks fell thirty five percent in the blink of an eye so that money obviously exited. But I mean all these endowments and foundations in sovereign wealth funds and family offices and wealthy individuals. Do you think they're just going to put their money in cash and try to weigh this out? The money has to be invested somewhere. Some combination of stocks bonds real estate cash and other investments. Okay so now show Japan right okay. And that's what people said to me. And they said well. That doesn't really make sense because there's been stimulus in Europe and Japan and rates have been low there forever to so. Why haven't those low rates driven up stocks in those markets and that actually is probably one of the points that I heard? So William Bernstein wrote this along time ago. He wrote this piece in two thousand and one on his efficient frontier bug and he asked who killed value. He looked at the value factor. Going back to the nineteen thirties versus inflation. And feel char put in here. It shows when inflation has been higher value. Stocks have done better when inflation has been lower in especially when we've had deflation growth stocks have done better so value tends to do better when inflation is high roll stocks tend to do better when inflation is low and the US is obviously dominated by gross stocks in Europe and Japan are definitely more of a value bent. The reason you think about this is if inflation is higher in the future a growth stock you can almost think of it like a bond. That growth is going to be less tomorrow than it is today so when rates are low inflation is low that makes girls stocks more attractive and valuable. Yeah I get that argument for the value versus growth piece. But I still don't know how that answers the Japan Europe thing especially Japan. Those markets are dominated by financials and other value type stocks so with low rates there and low inflation value. Stocks have gotten hurt. More if you look at it. I did this for foreign stocks to foreign stocks have done better when inflation is higher. Which makes sense because it has the value bent to it so the fact that the US is dominated by girl stocks into the low inflation deflation environment growth stocks can do better which means the US is GonNa do better but isn't value and growth relative. Yes I think my point. I'm finishing a piece of now. My point is going to be even if we don't get inflation which some people are already worried about which seems kinda crazy at the moment but maybe in a couple of years who knows but eventually maybe that inflation is just inflated expectations in those expectations too far and that's the catalyst because there are periods. Where when you get into the two to four percent inflation range. These relationships aren't quite as strong as not as easy to see. So there's a bunch of times where it's happened. Where inflation is more subdued and then you can kinda switch back and forth between value growth working so. I think that makes sense to that if expectations go too far. That's when you get the flip between volume growth. I understand but I don't know if that suffices I think that if low rates really did inflate stocks than you would see it in other markets and you haven't so you could look at the growth in value thing and I think that's a piece of it but I don't think that answers everything. Okay I do think your point of thinking about unintended consequences rates have never been this low in the US and those other countries don't dominate the markets like the US does the US makes up over fifty percent equity market cap. Now we've never seen rates like this low in the US before but counterpoint. Then how do you explain? The giant tidal wave of money going into bond. Etf's year after year after year after. That's one of the reasons that rates have come down. How does that push stocks up? If all the money's going into bonds because that's money from retail investors an ETF neutral funds. They don't really control the market. That's a small percentage of the market retail investors. Aren't the ones who are? There's hundreds of billions of dollars going at the buds. How many trillions of dollars are there a drop in the bucket but if you look at stocks? Expi- backs and sorry to do that but there's not a ton of buyers on for stocks right and again the people buying stocks are the wealthy people? It's the corporate executives and is not the retail people again. So I think they're the ones who put the money. It's the professional money not the retail money. Just a theory. Well what if we have a bear mark a ten year bear market from here? Yeah that's certainly reasonable but I'm saying is it possible that low interest rates have put something of a floor under the markets for sure where it could've been before I think that's certainly possible where stocks thirty percent you're saying jeez earning nothing in cash and nothing in bonds it's great? They haven't gone anywhere but I need to eventually earn something so Jeez. The stock market is now yielding four percent because stocks have fallen so much. What's the bottom? They were yield two point six percent. I think while the ten years yielding half a percent so I think that we can say that part of the reason why stocks have done so all over the last decade is because of low interest rates. I don't think that's controversial but I also don't think that that means that stocks will continue to do all forever and ever because of low interest rates in my other point was I think the low interest rate thing means. We're GONNA see more booms in bus now because it does push so many people out on the scale to maybe where they don't want to be. I would love to be able to tell a retiree you can put all of your money in a six percent treasury rate bond right now if you had that option like he did in the ninety s or even in the early two thousands. That'd be great to just say you know what? Take all your money off the table. Put Leap Twenty percent in the stock market in. Earn your safe six percent. That'd be wonderful. Of course but we know that six percent the market would not be where it is right but the crazy thing is in. The nineties market was higher with higher rates. You could have got a ten year treasury at six percent going into the dot com crash in one thousand nine hundred seven you could have ten percent on your treasury bond going into that crash. I mean you get into this relative world where back then. The rates didn't matter as much. It's just gotten so low that now it finally matters. That's what I'm trying to say. Maybe I'm wrong. So there was a Wall Street Journal piece. Speaking of dividends where they said companies are suspending dividends at the fastest pace in years. They said there's been like twenty three billion dollars in savings. This one kind of surprised me which Part Bank of America said dividend payouts will fall around ten percent this year their predictions. That's a lot right. They don't usually all that much. No that's that's low to me. My point is dividends. Hold up much much more than people. Give them credit for Schiller. Oh this one of his books. Dividends on a real basis of never fallen fifty percent or more during a crash even though markets. Obviously have so we've written about this in the past that dividends are way more stable so I think ten percents actually pretty decent drop. I'm saying stocks fell thirty five percent. The economy is grinding to halt ten percent. I would have guessed it would be way lower than that because companies need to find ways to cut back more so. I'm not saying this is relatively stable. Insofar as I'm concerned it's not over. You could get a lot worse. Yes so eighty-one companies have suspended or cancelled their dividends which is more than ten years combined so that adds up to savings of about twenty three billion dollars. So that's a lot of money. I would love to see how many of those are energy stocks. It's got to be a huge percentage of those so dividend. Aristocrats are stocks that have raised their dividend for twenty five straight years. There are sixty four of them in five years. Dividends ARISTOCRATS ARE GONNA BE COMPANIES. That haven't cut their dividend in the last twenty five years. Do you have to like drink a cup of tea when you own the dividend Aristocrat Fund? It just sounds so hoity. Toity doesn't help does so people love their dividends. There's an ETF this and OBI AL which is about five billion dollars assets and if you look at the total assets under management versus the price chart even the ticker of the ATF is thumbing. Its nose any noble. Yeah right I only invest in dividend aristocrats. Yes so anyway. The money has not left the even though it's getting crushed along with everything else. Dividend investors are pretty. Well Behaved Yeah. It makes sense. I just think this is more stable than I would have. Thought it would be and again it could potentially get than a lot of these companies had to cut back even further. But I think that's a win for the stock market investor if you're banking on getting income from somewhere that's the place right now. I guess let's move off of the aristocrats and onto the newbies who knew that a side effect of the krona virus was becoming a new boil. I never would have thought. Literally Headline in The Wall Street Journal Corona Virus Turmoil free-trade Straw newbies into stock market. Do We know an editor there? We can tell them to start using new whale. Have at it. Use It so they showed. This chart is crazy. Td Ameritrade daily average client traits. They show when they cut commissions zero in. I guess it was December November. Ever since it's gone through the roof how much of that do you think you can count to market craziness versus trades going zero? I mean is it? Fifty fifty on the part of that has to be markets. Went Crazy and people trade more? Because they're panic buying and selling. It's the perfect storm for new boils. Can we come up with a new term for perfect storm please? Why I don't know I'm sick of Allen I'm please email us in. Your thoughts heard a new perfect storm. I love it great phrase. We need to come up some new. They they said fifty percent of new robinhood users are first time traders according to the company. Td Ameritrade opened a record. Six hundred eight new accounts in the quarter ended. March thirty first six eight thousand. Yeah what did I say? Six hundred eight okay. Six hundred eight would have been more than two thirds were opened in March. E-trade saw net game three hundred sixty three thousand accounts in Charles Schwab sausage hundred nine thousand new brokerage accounts for the quarter. I mean this is easy to like. Make Fun of the new whale investors but for years people were saying this is a joke. People are just passive investing in buying index funds in. Where's the price we're GONNA come from? I don't know. Is this press discovery. These people are coming in and just buying and selling at will or these people to take advantage of. Is this a good thing or bad thing? So a lot of new investors are coming on during a crash. I think I don't know maybe this is kind of a good thing. If some people will will end up staying in the market and trying to learn and invest better well. These people are guppies obviously for renaissance technologies and other companies to take advantage of but big deal. Because if you're just trying to learn about the market and you lose a few dollars I feel like that's a small price to pay. As usual. The Wall Street Journal able to find some. I love it every person office person off the street. How do we find this person? This is my favorite part about Wall Street Journal Stories. This guy says he talked about hype. Fifteen grand in the market for the first time and he says I feel like everything that I buy. Watch pretty closely if something. That's not doing well. I generally try to put that money into something that is doing well instead. It's like wow. We've got a new Ben Grant here. This guy's cutting his losers in addict winners. I love it. Paul Tudor Jones. I guess so loses average losers. Okay so this is a question from a listener. That was talking with something. We've been mentioning in the past couple of weeks. So many people have second rental properties that rely on and they need rental income from places like airbnb and the RPO and they carry second mortgages if cove nineteen shutdown continues AIRBNB. Rentals are down as much as many anticipate. Do you think that a ton of those rental properties will be put on the market for sale in the next three six twelve months? Yes yeah I think they almost have to be. They're going to be close in a bank is going to put him on. So this is another Wall Street Journal. They're basically saying so. This is the headline a bargain with the devil. Bill comes due for over extended. Airbnb hosts in one of these people that was in Michigan. Apparently there's this burgeoning industry in the last few years of people who buy a ton of rental properties and rent them out on AIRBNB and obviously they are screwed at the moment may profile a few people who are I guess. This is one of those cases in the they talked to this fifty four year old woman who has a few properties. She says she has twenty two thousand dollars a month expenses for her airbnb portfolio. Which includes a handful of houses? I mean this is the kind of place where no one's going to be there to build someone like this. Obviously no I mean obviously I feel bad for those people. I don't think they necessarily would bail out. This is it's unfortunate on really know what else to say. It's sad I think maybe this company is in bigger trouble than they're letting on a moment. A lot of these people are going to lose their homes they were renting so not only is travel going to be down. Do you think as we enter this weird phase of you can look at the market in three phases of the economy. Or else we have this like crash quarantine phase that were potentially coming out of where everything is just awful in the date is. GonNa Be Awful. And then we're going to have this phase to where it's going to be we're GONNA have this kind of opening. It's going to be weird we're GONNA have still have social distancing and people can ask people aren't going to be doing what they were before and we're GonNa have an economy that still operating at the parking brake is almost still on but robbery at fifty or sixty or seventy percent whatever it is. I guess the third phase will be hopefully post vaccine and everything kind of goes back to normal in this weird middle phase isn't a place like airbnb. I mean if you are traveling wouldn't you much rather stay at a hotel that has professional cleaning crews then someone's house that's an Airbnb that has people that come in before you? That's a good point. Don't you think that the chains are going to make people feel safer than just a random house or apartment or something? This is why it's so hard to look at the market the S. and P. Five hundred specifically figure like what is going on. Because you think about okay. Let's say that the economy reopens and let's just say that we get up to seventy percent back to normal. We just got seventy percent but the thing is a lot of the companies. That are all of the casinos all the airlines all of the energy all of the retail hospitality. All of that combined is I'm making up a number ten percent of index and you have the giants like Amazon and apple and Google. That are like ninety five percent intact. And that's how we ended up with an sap five hundred that's only fifteen percents off. The highs doesn't mean that this make sense logic or can't go a lot lower but that's what's going on right the way. The market has priced the stuff actually kind of makes sense and a lot of ways and that. Those industries have been absolutely slaughtered. Their stocks have gotten crushed. And so you could actually say that investors have actually looked through this and search through the rubble a little bit and made decent choices. Obviously that could flip if and when something's happened but so far. Investors are almost piling into the winners in it kind of makes sense for the time being so airbnb is the defacto Central Bank. For the hosts they let their hosts set their own policies. However due to extenuating circumstances they overrode the cancellation policies when the pandemic it so some people say that they felt like airbnb hung about the dry. Here's a quote. I don't think that hosts ever thought their policies would be overridden. They're very guest centric so then later airbnb. So that it will pay hosts twenty five percent of what they would ever see for cancel bookings but it's capped at five thousand dollars per host so that's not enough to get people to the other side. There's absolutely going to be a lot of these listings on the market. One third of people that are hosts own between two and twenty four properties in one third more than twenty five properties so two thirds of them own multiple properties yet. That five thousand dollars isn't GonNa go very far and these people are. Unfortunately that's a risk you take when you build up that much leverage I mean. Unfortunately that's just the risk. When you take something like this that there would be a disruption whatever it is so these people are obviously out of luck unless the banks are willing to work with because I mean if the banks were willing to extend them mortgages for twenty five properties again. This kind of rose up to the bank. So what are they GONNA do? Are they going to work with them? A little bit of a bank GonNa take over the houses you're right. How long do events like this? Change People's psychology. How quickly are people are gonNA come back to this thing? It'd be like hey you know what's a good business opportunity. Airbnb is at three years ten years. Never I mean obviously it comes back eventually. Don't you think these are the people that moved to something else? Though so like we had the DOT COM crash in the two thousands of people from tech and then later in the early to mid two thousands we had the real estate. Boom people went from day trading stocks to becoming mortgage brokers and. I'm sure a lot of those same people went to Bitcoin. Hawkers or something in the recent years and then maybe real estate and players whatever it is I think wherever there is some sort of speculation. People are going to find it whatever it is. Maybe it's not AIRBNB in the future but it's something else it'll be interesting to see how long it takes this company to come back. Because I think they got an investor dollars to help see them through but I think they could be in trouble. If People's risk appetites are changed in terms of just wanting to stay at those places. I know we keep talking about this. I would love to see AIRBNB on trade publicly. What would be doing? Yes so sticking with a chain think Derek Thompson wrote is really long piece in the Atlantic. And he's been all over the stuff in how things will change. He said the pandemic will change American retail forever. He talked about the fact that as we hit this phase to where things are kind of weird. He's expecting chains to really take over and he talked about the fact he said everything that urban residents typically despise about changed cold efficiency sterility in predictability may come to feel like mixed blessings during a period when people feel stalked by murderous pathogens in the past month chains have taken three dollars out of every four dollars spent eating out and so this is for our city in grand rapids here over the past ten years or so. We've gotten a ton of new restaurants and they've all been independent in a lot of chain places that actually closed because no one wants to those anymore. They've all been these new breeze or distilleries or any type of new place in. I wonder coming out of this. How many of those places are GONNA make it? And how many are going to be replaced by chains? Unfortunately so if it's already been a couple of really well known places here that have closed. I wonder if that's going to be a trend where some of these great new independent restaurants are going to not survive and not be able to make it in chain places are going to swoop in and they're going to be the ones that take advantage. Yeah I mean there's millions of places in New York when you walk by just a little mom and pop places. How do those places survive something like this and even if they get alone? How long can that really see them through? I just think there's I kind of agree with him that this retail experience could especially from the independent versus places that could really stop a trend in its tracks for a while. At least this just keeps getting back to the big getting bigger at the corporate level income inequality. Somebody asked Powell during the press conference. Do you worry about workers just got jobs in the last couple of years? He said yes. Unemployment tends to go up faster much higher for minorities and those at the lower end of the income spectrum. It is heartbreaking to see good labor markets threatened. Yeah unfortunately we mentioned this probably a month ago the inequality. I think that's honestly one of the reasons that people get so angry. The stock market is going up because so much of it is held in the hands of so few people got mad at me. Because I said why don't we wipe out people's credit card debts? A few people said I may their blood boil which is great. Obviously I'm just throwing out stuff here against the wall and hoping it sticks. I wasn't actually thinking we should worry about people's credit card debt. But what if during one of these fiscal stimulus things they put part of that into? We're GONNA put a thousand dollars into the stock market for you in. Everyone now owns a piece of the stock market as part of fiscal stimulus. We're still gonNA give you checks to help but we're also GONNA put grand in the Total Stock Market Fund for you. Wouldn't people be less angry at the stock market if it wasn't just this place where they see wealthy people and everyone had a stake in it? No I think the unintended consequences of that people would say why the hell you buying stocks. I need money now. Yeah true I just I think you can continue to demonize the stock market or you can figure out a way to help that other fifty percent who isn't invested in it somehow take part in it. Here's a tweet. From yesterday American Nutshell. Twenty six million people laid off Goldman Sachs CEO. Getting a twenty percent raise to twenty seven and a half million dollars. Yeah again that's just going to get worse okay. So Bloomberg had a piece. I'm continuing to worry about what school is. GonNa look like in the fall. They had a piece about what China's doing so they had two hundred sixty million kids go back to school master of course mandatory. They said I think basically they're going every other day so maybe break it up into half kids. Go one day half kids the other day. They have to eat in the cafeteria at a large grit of standalone desks. That are space. Exactly one point eight meters apart. Some schools are eating in shifts. Some schools have created dining cubicles where children are walled off from one another four times daily temperature checks basically. The kids can't socialize and I don't know that the US is going to take things that far but the school year next year is going to be. Bizarre are daycare sensitive. Email the other day saying they're opening may eighteenth which is the first day after the regulations are lifted where things can open back up. Even if they're going to open in a I can't imagine going to that they're going to push back a little bit. More what percentage of people are going to send them in. Let's say school does September and a lot of people still don't feel safe. Don't you think a lot of parents are going to hold their kids back if they can and say? I don't feel safe sending my kids to school yet. It's that whole thing. I don't know how that's going to work or how weird school's going to look. It's hard because I also think that. So many parents are just going to be so desperate to get their kids out of the house. A lot of people are gonNA have to because they need to go back to work and earn money and yet because it axes for daycare for people. I just it's yeah the remainder twenty twenty with a school thing. I think he's going to be bizarre. And I don't know how it's GonNa work out but I'm increasingly worried about the fall okay. So there was a story about trolls world tour which we have now rented twice so you pay the twenty dollars. We've gotten it twice. The soundtrack is wearing out in our house from Alexa. All we do is listen to trolls. Music my kids love this and they talk about how. The sequel made more money than the original did in five months of release in the theaters in the digital recently. Been out for three weeks. This is another weird trend. Obviously it's hard to do. Apples to apples comparisons. Because you don't know how much of the poll forward has happened. In terms of people that would have bought it on demand. All I know is when this comes out into able to buy we will probably buy it too because my kids have such a high appetite for repetition. I think this whole trend just makes a whole lot of sense because we never would've taken all our kids to go see this in a million in the theater so the fact that it was available to us was probably extra money in their pocket that they wouldn't have gotten otherwise maybe that's more of a thing just for families and it wouldn't work for all movies but I think this is a trend that there's almost probably no going back for a lot of these movies unless it's a really huge huge movie that they just wanted to theaters. I think some of the smaller movies like this. It totally makes sense just if people pay up a little bit for it in honestly twenty bucks for us for a family of five. That's a bargain because if we would have gone to the movie theater tickets would have been more than that in the concessions and everything else and plus the fact that when you rent it for twenty bucks you get for forty eight hours in so we watched it multiple times or my kids. Did I think this is just a great idea in? This is one of the trends that there was a theater chain and AMC said all right. Universal are no longer a lot in our theater's it's like you can't fire me. I quit. Yeah I don't know if you got to the George Costanza yet in Seinfeld where he breaks up with the girlfriend because he knows she's GonNa break up with him. I that's know I'm breaking up with you. This is but I think this is a trend that totally makes sense and probably would have happened anyway. Yeah listener questions. What effects do you think? A large reduction of influence a mutual funds. Etf will have on the overall market. Where's the dry powder and investment money coming from over the next four months for the MOM and pop? Investors wouldn't all have to be cash on the sidelines and invest taxable accounts. This is a confusing question. I guess this is saying if people are making less money. You're losing their job. He's not going to. Where's the money coming from the overall market I guess that makes sense and potentially people pulling out of their 401k? It'd be interesting to see the numbers of foreign k. Forcing a drop off in contributions or people have slowed them down and stop them. It sounds like for vanguard from some of their numbers. It hasn't quite happened yet but I guess you'd have to make the case that it's bound having but again mom and pop are still a drop in the bucket in terms of the overall market. And they're not the ones pushing it around. It's really hard. I don't know how we can quantify like who's setting the prices right. It's definitely not retail investors. I will say that because the stuff they're investing in target date funds those things don't trade often as it is so they're not the ones that are seeing this heavy heavy turnover and so yeah. It's the big money that's moving the markets not little mom and pop. I any recommendations on thinking else. Am I watching? I watched a movie on. Hbo On demand called dragged across concrete. Which is probably movie that nobody has heard of and for good reason so being Jewish. I'm not exactly a huge Mel Gibson advocate. It's Mel Gibson. And Vince Vaughn movie from two thousand eighteen. It costs fifteen million dollars. Just did six hundred sixty thousand dollars at the box office. Once again rotten tomatoes failed me. Got A seventy. How come no talks about the Vince? Vaughn bear market. I think he's been a bear market for like eight years now. He did the third season or the second season of true detective. Yeah which was awful terrible. He wasn't that funny and curb the season. I think Vince. Vaughn is in a bear market. Putting out there. He's at levels lesson in nineteen ninety-three Sunday so this movie got seventy five on tomatoes. And I know the calculations. Don't email me but the audience also sixty nine percent and waste of time so. I've wasted now probably wasted ten hours in the last week on bad movies. Yup Honestly what the hell else are. You GonNa do right literally. Nothing else to do. You know what actually I'm doing more than I ever have listening to more sports podcasts. Because of the last dance which is so good. I'm listening to every Zach Lowe podcast. I listen to every Bill Simmons podcast and a half for a long time. But now I'm listening to every Zach Lowe. Podcast also just to talk about that yet. There's nothing talk about. I took some heat a couple of weeks ago when I said better call. Saul was boring. I'm doubling down on that. Ooh But with a caveat so the first three seasons were awful. They were slow nothing happened. It was three seasons of character building. Which is way too much if this was not a show that was about breaking bad ended up breaking bad fans. I don't think it would have made it see. I just finished season for season. Four was good and better in star. That's when you start getting into this stuff about Gus fring and how they build out the underground layer where they make all the meth. So you start getting into all these characters from breaking bad so it's really good and I heard season five's even better so I think here's the theory for the people who don't want to sit through three seasons of just boringness and nothing happens. Watch the third season finale and then go right into the fourth season. You Miss Nothing. If you really WANNA get into the break in the breaking bad's up his Kinda cool how they lead up in you see all these characters that renting like Oh. I forgot about that person so it's good but I'm doubling down the fact that this show is just really really slow at points and it doesn't heat up until season four. Here's an Alpha me little fires everywhere. Which is based on a book is a Hulu Show with Reese Witherspoon in Carrie Washington on Hulu? Kinda like your netflix movie. From the other day said they just feel eighty percent complete? This show reese witherspoon. Basely plays the same character. She plays in big little lies. But it's just not as good and we have a couple episodes left and the only reason and finishing his quiz of sunk costs. Is Your wife on the same page because my wife like show. My wife probably likes it better than me. But it's I'm surprised. Reese Witherspoon to this is not very good and finally the thirtieth book in My prey series by John. Sanford is called masked pray. His first book was in nineteen eighty nine. It's about a detective from Minnesota. He's done one almost every I think it took one or two years off. And this is the thirtieth one and just as good. This one is about an alright conspiracy theory taking out some kids of Inner Reef Social Media and the outright and is a pretty good one so Maskrey by John. Sanford I'm dipping my toes back in the book back in the game. I'm reading new ideas and data communists still getting to that FDR biography. I'm really all the devils. Were here by Bethany. Mclennan Joe Joe Nocera. But I'm just reading like I don't know twenty minutes at a time I just. I can't get myself to go all in the. I'm the same way. It's I really like twenty minutes before bed. And that's all I can muster in terms of reading Allah. Speaking of which I was telling Ben before the started I'm ready to about slow down on the two times a week. It's a lot of work and I feel like I'm just always do is read articles and it's getting kind of exhausting and also given the market has chilled out a little bit on petitioning for going back to once a week. We'll see we might need to do a survey on this. Maybe if there's stuff going on we'll do two week otherwise maybe shift back down to one. We'll see I think there's still enough craziness in the world going on. We could do to. I know but I'm getting burnt out. I don't want to retire. Okay all right. Well I wouldn't want to get burnt out from podcasting. It's a really tough game. You know I feel like Jordan. Ninety-three I've nothing left to prove. Maybe you need to up your game in the Palestinian Glasses a day send us an e mail. Tell Michael why he is a big win for not wanting to to podcast week Animal spirits pods team dot com. We'll talk to you next week.

US Federal Reserve airbnb Mister Powell The Wall Street Journal twitter government Europe Japan Bill Simmons apple Vince Vaughn Google Mike Batt Nick
365. Not Just Another Labor Force

Freakonomics

1:01:17 hr | 1 year ago

365. Not Just Another Labor Force

"He there's Stephen dubner pod. Swag is your one stop shop for gifts from all your favorite podcasts. Head to pod. Swag dot com slash freakonomics to shop from a variety of merch, like, socks, mugs, and pins. We've got a two piece bundle and three piece set for you or podcast loving friends. You can gift an entire line of merch all in one click, go pod. Swag dot com slash freakonomics to shop. The bundles today, that's pod. Swag dot com slash freakonomics. If you make it to the final g feel like a rockstar. You feel like you like own the world I was in love with the game in part because of how violent it was. He wants something you have to be aggressive. It was over in seventeen seconds. I got a TKO victory. And I remember thinking, oh my God. I have to do this again. The fact of the matter is superstars do win championships. Super Bowl is by far the biggest sports event in the United States draws the most viewers the most attention, and of course, the most money as we've been discussing in this hidden side of sports series. The sports industrial complex has grown tremendously over the past few decades generates roughly seventy billion dollars a year. But once you strip away, the massive TV revenues the increasingly sophisticated arenas and stadiums all the merchandise. But most people care about is watching the players play. How much do we care about the players themselves? That is a different question. Most of us profess to care about the livelihood and well being of employees in various industries does this apply to athletes or is sports too. Unlike other industries to think of its employees as just another labor force, but find out that's find out what it's like to be on the labor side of the equation. A business that often seems never more than on Super Bowl Sunday to be nothing but superstars and fat paychecks and game day glory. Yes. The National Football League generates billions of dollars. But the reality of the facts of our business are are rather. Stark that's Demorest Smith, the executive director of the NFL players association the union that represents the athletes are players play for approximately three and a half years on average. That is some careers are obviously longer in every career at some point is derailed by pain. The injury rate is one hundred percent owners tend to own teams for decades if not generations what the players have tried to do throughout history is just to make sure that they get what they believe is their fair share. According to allow the athletes we've been speaking with in a variety of sports, a fair share is hard to come by many feel. They don't have much control over their destinies financial. And otherwise, it's a interesting kind of irony in that sports is a place that we consider as close to Ameritech, Chrissy as we have. And you look at the field, and we convince ourselves that once you step out there. It's all fair, and it feels that way. That doesn't extend to to the business of sports. This is true of the biggest sports like football. The owners are people who are used to getting their way and the sports that draw smaller crowds, the athletes have no leverage. It's almost like the abuser. Abusing relationship where the abuse e gives excuses for being abused. That's exactly what's happening with regard to domestic volleyball here in the US. This can happen early in an athlete's career. Most people understand that college sports is professional sports. They generate a substantial amount of revenue and that revenue goes to lots of people who are not the labor. It can happen to athletes at their peak. The way these contracts are structured is these athletes aren't paid any money upfront. The only way they earn money is by win. Metals and it extends into retirement, which for athletes is an inherently early retirement. I think about what I'm gonna do after basketball on a daily basis. And there's a level of fear of the other side so far in this series. We've looked at the history of the sports industry. How athletes do what they do both physically. And mentally last week. We talked to team and league executives about what keeps them up at night. My nine seven and five year old don't even turn on TV. The ends of NBA games is one of my bugaboos. I just can't stand the fouls and timeouts and assist. You know, not a good in viewing experience right now. One of the commissioners main objectives is to spread the game globally. In today's episode. What it's like to be an employee in one of the most prominent and volatile industries in the world. Yeah. It's a pretty typical fighter story to be broke and trying to make it, you know. From Stitcher and productions this is freakonomics radio. The podcast explores the hidden side of everything here's your host. Stephen governor. The seeds of sports career are typically planted quite early. I was eight when I was like I decided I wanted to be professional football player. That's Dominique Foxworth. He played in the NFL from two thousand five to two thousand eleven it's weird. Like, I was young enough than to be naive enough to think, obviously I'm gonna play an NFL started getting invited to football camps. And and that's when it started to become a business when I showed up, and it was like oh bear like evaluating me by this is where the dream either continues to go forward or or dies. The very first moment I played volleyball. I fell in love with it. That's the three time Olympic gold medalist Kerri, Walsh Jennings. People talk about their ha moments in these pivotal times in their lives where you know, things are different. I had that moment when I was ten in the fifth grade. And I literally just fell in love with the dance of the game. And the learning, you know, everything that had to do with volleyball. I loved it. I was a geek for it. I was a sophomore in high school and pro scouts started showing up to my games, and that is marked to Shera. And that's when I was talking to my coaches and talking to my dad and talking to some of these scouts saying, wow, I could actually play professional baseball. How cool is that to share a wound up playing fourteen seasons in the major leagues? He was a three time all star a World Series champion, but back in nineteen ninety eight he was just a teenager with a lot of potential. I was the twelfth rated prospect in the draft that year my senior year, he could've played college baseball. I or gone straight to the pros through major league baseball amateur draft. The draft is how teams in the big American sports pick their young players. Unlike other industries, where an employee can choose the city where they wanna live and the company they want to work for in. A sports draft the employees can only work for the company that chooses them still for a player like to share. The future was bright. You know for all intents and purposes, I should've been a top fifteen pick, right? The Red Sox that you're had the ninth pick the Red Sox actually had the twelfth pick overall not the ninth to share his recollection seems a bit off. Anyway, they called me up before the draft and said, hey, we want you to take this signing bonus was one point five million dollars. When take you the signing bonus agree to this pre-draft deal will draft you and you'll get started. Well, you're not allowed to release in those days. You weren't allowed to pre negotiate a deal when when you're an amateur. And so I said, okay, you know, at a roll the dice if the Red Sox don't draft me some other team will draft me, and I'll be fine. Well, draft day comes you know, was going to be the coolest day of my life. The most exciting day of my life. Not only was I not the ninth pick. I dropped to the ninth round out. So that's like two hundred seventy drafts me Boston rents Boston Red Sox. To share a wound up going the college and played baseball. At Georgia Tech best three years met your wife there. My wife. Blast. You know, just became a better baseball player when to share entered the draft this time he was picked fifth overall by the texts Rangers. So what had happened in that first draft, according to share? Here's what the Red Sox. Did they called every single team in baseball and said to share is not sign and he's going to Georgia Tech. Don't draft them the Red Sox. We should say have disputed to share his account and claim they did nothing wrong in any case. Here's what to share it took away from that incident. This was the moment that I realized that baseball is a business. Dominic Foxworth the business side of sports became fully manifest during college. At the university of Maryland, my freshman year in college we won a c- tambien ship. We went to the Orange Bowl and loss and then immediately after my head coach got a ten million dollar extension. And that was when I was like, oh, we aren't a team we're business. And that was when the light went on for me there is perhaps no more confounding labor market in sports than the one. Who's organizers insist on saying it is not a labor market? I'm talking about big time. American college sports run by the national collegiate Athletic Association, or NCWA college sports, especially basketball, and football have also grown massively over the past. Few decades. They generate about thirteen billion dollars a year nearly as much as the NFL, but the Lieber is essentially free aside from room and board and. Some epidemic scholarships college athletes received no compensation, so where is that thirteen billion dollars going? So it goes through supporting other sports, it goes to building bigger and better facilities that goes to paying college presidents, and coaches and funding the NC double A like it goes a lot of different places. But it doesn't go to the people who are the labor on the field. And just how much is going to the coaches the Duke economist Charles clot filter looked at compensation data for various personnel from forty four public universities that have big football programs over the past thirty years. He found that full professors got a salary increase of forty three percent adjusted for inflation, not bad college presidents got an eighty nine percent increase over that time. Even better had the football coaches do over those thirty years football coaches compensation increased more than eleven hundred percent from an average of around three hundred thousand dollars to more than three point six. Million dollars a year back in nineteen eighty-five. Football coaches were earning slightly less on average than the college presidents. Now, they earn about six times as much they're athletes. Meanwhile are still playing for free. And if you want a career in the NBA or NFL, you pretty much have to play at least some college ball since both leagues have eligibility requirements if forbid athletes from going pro straight out of high school, Dominic Foxworth, again, if that was the end of the story in every player, then went on to have NFL careers, it'll be unfair. But whatever like, it's you're not gonna lose any sleep for those guys. But the vast majority of the guys and I have several teammates who because it is not considered work. They're not privy to workers compensation. They're not privy to extend it healthcare. So one of my best friends in college. He had aspirations to play professional football. He had three knee surgeries while in college. The few years ago. His doctor told him that he was going to have to have both of his knees replaced by the time. He was fifty. And he didn't play professional sports. And there's nothing that any college football team or or governing body is going to do for him in that case. And that to me is is tragic that a lot of people benefited from that. So the old fashioned argument for why this was acceptable. Was that this is like what comments call a tournament model? Right. Whenever you got a lot of people competing for the top of the pyramid. Whether it's show business or sports, or whatever, you know, the bottom of the pyramid. There's lots and lots and lots and lots of people they're willing to do whatever it takes for practically no money. It's kind of weird unpaid apprenticeship some people accept that as okay, others don't. But what strikes me especially noteworthy about sports is the degree and magnitude of sacrifice physical, and otherwise is larger I would argue than trying to become an actor trying to become a writer try and whatnot. So. So can you just talk about that component on what you think would be a better solution? I think bringing up the tournament model is is interesting because I could understand how some people would look at that and say that it fits here. And that's why this is fair. But I think as a country we decided that that wasn't fair a long time ago. There are plenty of jobs where that's true like just about every job was like. The barista at Starbucks like there are plenty of people out there who are capable of being baristas in you could probably allow Starbucks to to pick them against each other negotiate down down down down down. But that's not the case we've instituted. Minimum wages in instituted lots of other laws to protect American people or American workers from these type of like, capitalistic urges Runamuck. And the thing that's frustrating to me is we've instituted roles in professional excuse me in college. I guess don't excuse me in professional sports that happened to take place on college campuses. We institute of roles that are to the advantages of the institutions, but we are not interested in instituting any rules that are things that we accept as just kind of. Faxon fair you'll you'll be hard pressed to find anyone in our society. That's like, no less. Eliminate the minimum wage allow this this tournament model to to run them up for for low wage workers. Right. Well, the other argument though in colleges wait a minute free education for years of college. What's that worth? It could be worth a lot. But you're not even getting the same -cation as the people around you because you have to travel on Thursdays, and Fridays, and you are not allowed to do certain majors because they conflict with your schedule. I wanted to computer science major and my economic advisor was like, that course, lows gonna make it very difficult for you to make practices their labs, and blah, blah, blah, blah and three times a week during the winter session or the spring session. You have to go to five AM workouts. And and that changes your academic experience. It's they're all these things that are mandatory. Because your scholarship is year to year, and you don't have any power to negotiate with your coach and say things like I I wanna take this. So I'm not going to be able to go there. That's just not a thing that that is available. So the education that they're receiving is not the education that people think it is. The duke. Economist Charles clot felt also looked at graduation rates from fifty eight universities have big time sports programs for the general population at these schools. The graduation rate was seventy two percent for football players whose fifty six percent basketball players. Just forty two percent. This is yet another reason that makes some people question the very existence of the NCWA. Here's the assessment of the entrepeneurship. Mark Cuban who owns the NBA's, Dallas Mavericks. I think it's worthless. If you could blow it up entirely, what would you do would you have football attached to college at all? I don't mind having attached to college, but I would make an independent entity. So it would operate independently go get a job let them practice as much as they need to. If I wanted to create a band, I can pay them, and they can stay in school. They can practice together as much as they want. That's the hypocrisy. If you want to be a professional athlete, you can't practice your craft as much as you would like there's limits to coaching and playing with your your teammates. There's limits on jobs, you can take there's so many different things that are bound in stone that it just doesn't make sense for years. There's been talk about reforming the NCWA. But it hasn't changed much the commission on college basketball chaired by former secretary of state Condoleeza Rice is advocating some reforms that can be seen as pro athlete. But she also said this. Our focus has been destroying 'then, the collegiate model not to move toward one that brings aspects of professionalism into the game, which might make more sense. If some aspects of college sports weren't already at the professional level lake coaching salaries and TV audiences and the expectations of the top tier athletes. So how likely is a substantial change Dominique Foxworth is not up domestic those guys who are on the doorsteps of having professional careers. It's not really in their best interest to to stop this now, and the people who are benefiting most from it who are not on the field like there's really no benefit to the coaches because coaches salaries are inflated because they have extra money because they are not sending it to the players and the rest of the the teams who are funded by money generated by football and basketball. There's no incentive there. There's just athlete. It's who don't have much power. Foxworth as you've probably figured out by now thought through the entire athletic ecosystem, more than most people besides playing in the NFL. He's been an executive at both the NFL and NBA players unions. And he also got an MBA from Harvard so to understand the incentives. He's been describing and the transition from college to pro let's go back to Foxworth own transition. You were drafted believe two thousand five third round. Right. So what I'm looking at here. I've no idea if this is accurate you were paid for that year, including a signing bonus about six hundred sixty thousand dollars that sound about right for year one. Sure. Okay. And it was a three year rookie contract. Is that right? Yeah. It was at three year. Rookie contract with fourth year option. I believe. Okay. So it looks like your first three years paid you total of about one and a half million dollars. And then your fourth year. Then you've did become a free agent move to Atlanta. Those first years we're in Denver. So they traded me. So I went through the first three years, and then I was coming up on a contract year. And I played pretty well in Denver. And I knew that I needed to play well in this year because if you don't then the salary minimum goes up for guys after that point. So then they just go get a younger one, and you and you go on with the rest of your life. So on during week one. We're getting ready for the first week of the season in Denver. They traded to Atlanta Atlanta was a terrible football team. At that point. That was the first time when I consider go into business school skipped training camp. This team's gonna be terrible. I'm not gonna play and then I'll be out of the league. But you must had a pretty good gear because the next year. Use signed a contract with Baltimore that paid you in year. One eight million dollars. You're to nine point two three four point four. Is that sound about right? It was a four year twenty seven I think and I'm in in Baltimore news, a four year twenty seven point two million dollar contract. How much of that? Did you actually collect all of you did how how did you have it guaranteed? Even though you didn't end up playing out the whole contract. So I was on the team for three years, and then the fourth year, I got I taken out insurance policy. So I got the rest of it there. So I was fortunate that. That the knee injury happened after a sign that deal because it would have happened when I was in college or happen to your earlier, I would have been on entirely different path. So despite an injury that prematurely ended his career a things worked out pretty well for Foxworth. Meaning he got paid by the time. He was thirty. He was set for life financially at least but consider how easily it might have been different. Consider the case of Andre Ingram as the Doman Ingram spent ten seasons in the NBA's minor leagues today. It's called the G league after sponsor Gatorade. It used to be the D league for development. So I would you know, tell people that. Yeah. Played in the D league and been playing for years, they usually notice my gray hair, and, you know, wonderful coach at met that some point they always ex oh have you ever made it to the big time, and it had to tell them the same thing every time not yet that finally changed last year Ingram at thirty two years of age was promoted to the Los Angeles Lakers for the seasons last two games. Here's what happened on the firm. I shot he took in the NBA. The. Drei Greg his first try. Awesome Ingram went onto scoring nineteen points at night. My brother, and my niece had called and told me they said, hey, you are blowing up on Twitter, you blown of Instagram. You know, you're everywhere Ingram made a great impression. But still he was a thirty two year old rookie would the Lakers bringing back the following season. When we spoke with Ingram this past summer. The Lakers had just made news by signing the much coveted LeBron James to a four year one hundred fifty three million dollar deal. How would Ingram feel about sharing the court with the best player of his generation? Yeah. I mean count me along with the hundred percent of players who would love to play with LeBron. So I mean that that's a no brainer. You won't believe how many texts I got when he made the decision. So a lot of people already assuming I was going to be back with the Lakers. Like man you play LeBron and in my head. I'm like man, I hope so either that or he took year roster spot. That's the bad way of looking at it. It right. You know, some people takes me that as with unfortunately for Ingram, the Los Angeles Lakers did not bring him back. He's playing for the south bay Lakers of the G league. This year his eleventh season in the minors and he's not doing so. Well, he's averaging listen eight points a game with a career low in three point shooting. His specialty which means that for Andre Ingram. The end of his professional career is probably pretty close. I don't sit around complain about it, you know, thinking unfair. You know, I just would want four people in general who watch basketball to know the game to just know that their guys out there in the G league now and overseas and elsewhere who just know how to play the game of basketball and can play it in the hassle level, including NBA. Coming up after the break, we get into the athletes afterlife. And what makes it so hard? Well, the life of an athlete from very early in their career is dominated and regiment by people other than themselves and how some athletes try to gain leverage over ownership. You know, I'm the CEO of my life. I do not want to give the reins to my life and my success to someone else's hands. And I do not want to be kept small. It's coming up right after this. Freakonomics radio is sponsored by ZipRecruiter. You know, what's not smart? The way hiring used to be jobsites overwhelm you with tons of the wrong resumes. Now, there's a smarter way to hire. At ZipRecruiter dot com slash freak. Ziprecruiter's powerful matching technology finds the right people for you. And actively invites them to apply. It's no wonder that ZipRecruiter is rated number one by employers in the US from hiring sites on trust with over thousands reviews and right now freakonomics radio listeners can try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter dot com slash freak. That's ZipRecruiter dot com slash F. R E A K. It's easy to see professional athletes as fortunate beyond belief getting rich for playing the game, they love yada, yada. But that as we've been learning today is a very simplistic view of a complicated economic ecosystem for one thing. It's easy to focus on the handful of athletes at the very tippy top of the pyramid at the exclusion of the thousands of athletes below them. You don't make money unless you succeed at the Olympics. That's Shawn Johnson. She won one gold and three silver medals in gymnastics at the two thousand eight Olympics, how the majority of Olympic endorsements work. Is you sign an Olympic endorsement such as a Coca Cola. Mcdonald's. A Nike Adidas Under Armour before the Olympics, even starch, but the way these contracts are structured is these athletes aren't paid any money up front. The only way they earn money is by winning medals. So if you sign. Sign a deal with Nike. That's say a million dollars you go to the Olympics. And you don't win a medal. You don't earn any money. And when you're talking about thousands and thousands of athletes who have reached the pinnacle of their sport by just qualifying to the Olympics. The fact that they aren't getting compensated for their journey. That's gotten them to that point. I think is is pretty extreme extreme perhaps. But also, very similar to another population of amateur athletes, all the college football and basketball players who are very very good. But not quite good enough to have a pro career. And if you are that good and lucky then you're drafted by a protein. Remember, they choose you. You don't choose them. And now you're looking at a rookie contract with predetermined wages for your first several years if last that long if not the team can cut you loose, which means you're downside is unprotected. At the same time that you're upside is limited. You're basically stuck at a way below market paycheck for your first three years at a minimum Victor Matheson, an economist at college of the Holy Cross and president of the North American association of sports, economists is that made up for by the fact that you get to make these huge free agent contracts later. Yeah. But only if you last long enough to actually make free agency. Russell Wilson the Seattle Seahawks quarterback did make it that far. Actually, he did. So well, and I three seasons at Seattle gave him a contract extension worth nearly ninety million dollars before what would have been his final season under his rookie contract. But during those first three seasons, he averaged under a million dollars a year despite leading his team to two Super Bowls and winning one. And what if Wilson instead had played major league baseball, which he may be could have he was drafted by the Colorado Rockies and played some minor league ball. In baseball Wilson would have had to put in six years of major league service to become a free agent, interestingly the average career length major league baseball is five point six years. Also, interesting rookie NFL contracts or for four years and the average NFL career length the typical player plays about three seasons. This presents a paradox a clash of incentives the gives the leagues and teams much more leverage than the athletes as Victor Matheson sees it this also helps explain why a players strike would be very hard to organize. If I'm working for Verizon on the lines fixing. Telephone poles. I might be willing to sit out and lose my salary for an entire year. If I can get a ten percent higher salary for the next twenty years. I'm working for them, you know, those numbers kind of work out. But if you're if you're a major league baseball player if you're an NFL player. You can't afford to lose even one season because there's almost no increase in pay that could possibly justify losing one season of your very very short career. And so the owners have a huge advantage over them. They will not make that money back like it's just physically impossible Dominique Foxworth again. He was on the NFL players union executive committee during its last collective bargaining negotiation in two thousand eleven with the the length of a player's career. And how much money they could stand to make in a season. It's really not in their best interests like mathematically logically. If you go through the numbers, it's not in their best interest to actually withstand a lockout or to initiate a strike. And as a matter of fact, teams themselves have stopped striking completely all of the last major interruptions in pro sports in the United States have not been strikes, although they look like it to the fan lockout. They've been lockout see this is the owners actually going on strike and not paying the not paying the players rather than the players refusing to work. That's what happened in the two thousand eleven NFL negotiations. The NFL locked out the players for one hundred and thirty two days, although it was during the off season. So barely affected the run of play the owners and the players union finally agreed on a ten year deal which saw the players share of revenue fall from essentially fifty fifty two somewhere in the high forties. Although the players did gain some other concessions like funding for retirement and fewer practices. The most recent NBA NHL collective bargaining agreements. Have similarly resulted in a smaller share of revenue going to the athletes that said those are huge rich leagues that generate many millions of dollars even average players. It can be a lot harder to make a living in some other pro sports. Yeah. It's a pretty typical fighter story to be broke and trying to make it, you know, you're in Murphy started fighting in mixed martial arts matches in two thousand ten she's currently a top ranked flyweight fighter in the UFC or ultimate fighting championship. There was a time when I was coming up before I was signed at USC where I was traveling a lot to train I was sleeping on people's floors. I was sleeping in their guest bedrooms. I would like how sit and dog sit for people at the gym. It's hard to come up in fighting because you spend all your time training. So you don't have a lot of time to work. You know, if you're if you're trying to decide what what sport to go into man, stay away from UFC because they're making a lot of of revenues, but not much of that is going into the athletes in the big team sports. Matheson told us roughly half the revenues are designated for the players, although as we just noted that share has been shrinking a bit in the meanwhile, that share is much. Lower the amount going to the athletes. There's about ten or fifteen percent of revenues the chief operating officer of the UFC Lawrence. Epstein disputes that figure fifteen percent number. I don't I don't think that's accurate. I mean, there certainly is some fluctuation in the percentage of revenues that goes out leads. But the reason for that primarily is that we have a variable revenue stream model in our in our company, meaning the UFC distribute some of its fights via pay per view. Whereas the big team sports have bigger more reliable TV contracts still salary data for UC athletes is hard to come by since the company is privately held and the athletes are not unionized, which means there's no collective bargaining agreement. The UFC really has all the control they can cut you on one loss. They can cut you after two losses. They can keep you around for as many as they want. They can renegotiate your contract. You know, there's just. They have a lot of power that said Lauren Murphy is not much of a critic of the USC her career may not be all that lucrative. But it is a career maybe more important, it's given shape to her life sports in Murphy's case fighting it can have that affect on people, and that's part of the draw. I struggled with depression and I struggled with addiction. And I kinda just became your your typical high school dropout teenage mom in a small town. And it's just changed my life in ways that I never could have even dreamed of back then in a small town in Alaska in just her third. UFC fight Murphy earned fifty thousand dollar bonus for taking part in the fight of the night, a fairly subjective award bestowed by UFC management to the two fighters who delivered the most impressive performance on a given nights card that bonus changed my life. You know, I paid off a bunch of student loans with that. And I got out of debt and. It was really a life changing experience for me Murphy's bonus was a great stroke of fortune as for her guaranteed pay the UFC. That's a different story fighters. Get paid for two things making weight and winning figures vary, but the most Murphy's ever gotten was twelve and twelve twelve thousand dollars for making weight twelve thousand dollars for a win which obviously is also not guaranteed. What is guaranteed is that Murphy will train five to six hours a day for months, and that you have see fighters get on average just two point three matches per year. I've only made about fifteen thousand dollars in the of C so far this year. But you know, my dream was to see how far I could take this. And for me, at least, you know, if I wanted to be in a profession to make a lot of money. I would have been a lawyer or a doctor something like that. I mean, yes, I'd like to make more. I think anybody on earth wants to make. More. You know, if you ask them, do you wanna make more money? Everybody's going to be like, yes. So I I would love to make more money. I certainly think I'm worth more money might have more to do with the fact that this is a fairly new sport that may be still trying to find its way Victor Matheson again, but that's way, less than you're making elsewhere. Now, do you anticipate that changing if we were to talk in five or ten years, you have see is is making a lot of money and they've been growing really fast. Do you think that the athletes will eventually get the leverage to get that share up to thirty fifty sixty percent of revenues? Well, we did not see that happen in any of the other individuals sports Intel we had those athletes join together in some sort of important way. The athletes unions or players associations as often called negotiate not only pay scales. But also work conditions schedules health and safety and various benefits. In other words. They do what labor unions have always done, the NFL players association is in fact, a member of the AFL CIO, the big federation of unions that include the American federation of teachers and the American federation of state county municipal employees here again is damore Smith executive director of the NFL players association. I think it would be fair to say and people should understand that we are labor and the National Football League and its member teams are our management, and there is no difference in the hostility between us than there would be between management writ, large and labor writ large in America. We. Literally have engaged in hundreds of legal fights with the league. And the teams in the ten years since I've been here Smith, we should say is a lawyer who's worked in private practice as well. As the US department of Justice, the history of labor in management in the United States has been one for the most part. Where management has successfully lobbied and changed laws through through litigation that have affected a net negative for for employees. So we don't necessarily shy away from making sure that we are aggressive in the way in which we protect our players interest. Whether it's issues of healthcare issues of control issues of free speech issues of injury care issues over over money shares of revenue the league locked us out in in two thousand and eleven and that means not only cutting off the players right to to earn a living, but they cut off the health insurance for thousands of players wives, and and dozens of players wives who were expecting children during the lockup. They've. Issued and engaged in legislative action to take away our players right to medical care. And certainly we've had our skirmishes over Commissioner discipline and revenue now as I understand it. Some team owners are supporting legislation and a handful of states that would take away workers comp from injured players. I have that. Right. Yeah. We've probably had somewhere between ten and fifteen state legislature fights with Bill supported by team owners to take workers comp away from professional athletes, which is terrible. And their their argument than is what that it shouldn't be. Their argument is that they are cheap. And tell me about some of the other legal challenges you filed whether the league or legislatures whether it has to do with healthcare revenue share whatnot. You this show is no way long enough to go down that road. Considering all the issues that NFL players face and considering that they play in the richest sports league in the history of the world and have a relatively strong union. You might think that athletes in lesser sports would like to emulate them, but not necessarily I've been contacted a couple times now by people that want to unionize, and I just have a really hard time getting on board with it that again is you have see fighter. Lauren murphy. I mean, I would love to see fighters get signed to the USC and right off the bat. They're making you know, way more money like, you know, enough to live off of for an entire year. Like, I think that would be great. But I don't know if it's feasible. I don't know what the US's finances are the budgets workout or any of that works part of that mystery is intentional the UFC as we mentioned is privately owned. An investor group led by the w EMMY IMG agency bought it in two thousand sixteen for about four billion dollars. Dollars. If we unionize and suddenly W E, I m says, okay? Well, this isn't what we anticipated when we bought the sea. So we're going to have to cut out a bunch of divisions. So that we can afford to pay the fighters that we have left, and so they get rid of the less popular divisions say and now you're getting rid of the fringe weight classes in the women's weight classes and stuff like that will now have gone from you know, maybe making a smaller portion of the pie to making nothing. Murphy situation highlights one of the common problems for any sort of collective action whether in sports labor or anywhere, the people with the most to gain the Lauren Murphy's of the world, usually don't have much leverage. They can just be replaced. The superstars meanwhile do have leverage, but they often have little incentive to push for collective action. One exception was tennis champion, Billie. Jean King who in nineteen Seventy-three threaten to boycott the US open unless it awarded equal prize mu-. Money for women and men the US Tennis Association met her demands king also helped found the Women's Tennis Association, which push for equal prize money in all the major tournaments and helped turn tennis into one of the few sports in which the women's competition is arguably as high profile as the men's there's a movement currently underway in beach volleyball to gain more leverage for the athletes again with the female superstar leading the charge for so long. It's been one top athlete raising their hands saying that's not enough. And if one top athlete boycott, who cares, you know. And that the divide and conquer strategy happens. All the time that again is Kerri Walsh Jennings. One of the most decorated and high profile players in beach volleyball history, the athletes have no leverage because the athletes aren't unified. And we've been told for so long that your sport a small, this is what you deserve. This is as good as it gets in two thousand seventeen Walsh Jennings was part of a group of players that tried to negotiate a new deal with the AVP the association of volleyball. Sessions which runs the biggest beach volleyball tour in the country with eight events year. It is not a big moneymaker for the athletes the top player last year made I think just under just over thirty eight thousand dollars, we pay for training pay for coaches, we pay for travel, which pay for hotel, and that was a top player in the country like many sports leagues and tours the operates in a way that might make you think monopoly, so they own you for three hundred sixty five days for possibly eight days of work that you're probably not even maybe if you lose your first to your maybe making five hundred bucks. And so it's just the athletes are being held hostage. Basically a gun was held the player's head saying if you don't sign this, we're gonna fold the tour. There was no other alternative. We got calls the night before the deadline girls. Crying saying Kerry, we want to sit with you and fight with you. But I can't pay rent unless I play in this tournament next week in the end Walsh Jennings refused to sign the contract. But. She's sympathetic to the players did sign. Oh for sure. And I understand that no other choice and some people never agreed with us. They're like, you know, I believe this is it, and we should be grateful. That ADP is giving us these limited opportunities. And that's totally fine. I'm the CEO of my life. I do not want to give the reins to my life and my success to someone else's hands. And I do not want to be kept small as one of the stars of her sport wall strandings had the leverage to walkaway to her. It wasn't just about the money. She feels the AP doesn't have a vision for growing the sport in a way that will benefit the athletes. I want in October or November of twenty sixteen and set can you please lay out the next four years? We have this contract coming up, please give me your plans for growth for all these things. There was euro plans for growth they were going to go away from TV. It was going to be an exclusive contract for eight events maybe up to ten by twenty twenty. They would not increase the prize money that wasn't in their business model. They said so she started alternate tour called P, fourteen forty. Replant form and fourteen forty for the number of minutes in a day, Walsh Jennings. Wants to push people to use every minute wisely. We knew in creating p fourteen forty that. If we were just to be another viable property that hosts events, we would not be sustainable business. And so it's competition, health and wellness personal development entered entertainment. So we are a festival we're not available tournament. We are full blown festival one big problem. A lot of players that Walsh Jennings would like to play in her events are under an exclusive AVP contract. So ADP has eight events a year if you wanna play anywhere else you have to ask for dispensation and everyone who's ask for dispensation to play in our vents, even though we scheduled around their events. We're not conflicting at all. We're in their off-season. They've been told no Walsh Jennings is forty years old fairly ancient for competitive athlete. She's preparing now for the twenty twenty summer Olympics in Tokyo, which will likely be her last if nothing else. Her new startup league is a great project to be involved in. When her playing days are finally over. There is a famous saying every athlete dies twice once when they draw their last breath, the other when the hang up there's a point at which they'll stop doing what they've been doing since they were kids the thing. That's driven them an often given shape to their lives. It's inevitable, and it's dreaded a sort of living afterlife. I think about the end meaning the specific moment that it ends. I think about the moment I tell my wife. I think about the moment I tell my family. I think about those moments that's JJ Rettig who's playing in his thirteenth season in the NBA currently with Philadelphia seventy Sixers, and it's it's anxiety inducing. It's it it. Sometimes I actually if I'm having a dark moment, and I. Think of that moment, I cry like, I I think about what I'm gonna do after basketball on a daily basis. And there's a level of fear of the other side, and my hate to say this. But so much of my identity in any professional athlete is wrapped up in your sport. You know, since I was eight or nine years old like I've been a basketball player. It's what I've done. I think that's a question that a lot of fighters really struggle with Lauren. Murphy of the UFC is thirty five years old fighting kind of becomes your whole identity. And because it takes so much of our time. It's our entire lives. It can be hard to move on this entwined identity, personal and professional is something that Sudirman catas- has been studying for years. I'm a professor of sociology at Columbia University in New York Makati tries to understand how individuals operate within groups in all sorts of settings it my my method is to spend as much time with groups Dr. People get to know the world a little bit. I started with street gangs, boy longtime ago about thirty years ago gun traffickers and prostitutes people who are doing all sorts of legal things. And since then I spent a couple of years at the FBI, and that's my that's my chosen profession in life. Spend as much time with people and get their story. He's had a lot of success getting their stories, but professional athletes are particularly tricky. It's a little difficult for me to just show up on the sideline and put a hoodie on and pretend that a member of the team. So I have to create opportunities to observe one such opportunities came via program. He developed to teach athletes often toward the end of their careers about business skills or philanthropy. This let him see up close how they were adjusting to the afterlife while the life of an athlete. Elite from very early in their career is dominated and regimented by people other than themselves. This kind of all encompassing controlled setting has a name in sociology, it's called total institution. An example of a total institution would be a prison. So your your day structure for the moment, you get up. They tell you where to go with the Wendy one to shower and so on. Thank attach was interested to see how athletes having spent so much time in a total institution could adjust to a more fluid setting like an office. He found there were some surprising advantages a lot of professional athletes. I find handle interpersonal conflict, very well. And they are used to it. They are used to being told that they didn't perform well, the need to perform better they need to work better in the team than to listen better all sorts of things that many of us are including me are very fearful of an office setting. We're going to get reviewed. We're gonna get assess is often done by Email at late at night. And these folks are really really good just having someone walk up to them or going to somebody and not having it out, but just getting past whatever's in between and blocking them, but this upside Venkatesh discovered has a downside most of us, non former athletes aren't accustomed to having someone get in our face like that Venkatesh recalls. One former football player he calls them. Derek who was working in sales at an investment firm. He noticed that on the floor the Renault open spaces he was used to locker rooms that he was used to not having a lot of privacy. And it was difficult for him to to work in a team setting. When what he was supposed to do was to us telecommunications or Email to make appointments or to reach out. And instead he would just be going down knocking on doors really hard going into offices crossing boundaries of and people just got really scared because here's this very big. Cook coming at them, and for Derek there was actually the opposite that when people were closing doors or people were sending him emails. He felt like that was impersonal, not polite. That was not affective. Why not why don't we just saw the problem immediately and move forward? So he had to go through a little bit of training, and you can imagine that that's not part of the normal on boarding that a that a company might do. Transitioning to this living afterlife can present all sorts of challenges. Studies of former NFL and NBA players even the ones who've made a lot of money show. They are grotesquely prone to bankruptcy. And remember, these are the lucky ones who made it. But the demands of their profession can make it really hard to have time to acquire real world skills. There's also the long term health consequences of playing competitive sports. A recent study of athletes from Indiana University found that by middle age they were twice as likely as non athletes to have health problems, including chronic injuries that affected their day to day activities. But even if you make it into middle age with your health and with your finances intact. They're still the risk of a full blown existential crisis. I mean, most people's journeys are so much longer that when they do succeed they like die a few years after something, you know, Dominique Foxworth again. It's an interesting thing to happen to somebody at this age, it feels like more of a midlife thing and for athletes. It's a unique thing successful athletes is unique thing that in your twenties thirties, you're like. Now, what part of it is missing the action Lauren Murphy thinks about the people she trains with I was surrounded by a team, and I had never experienced anything like that before in my life. We all had this thing in common where we wanted to compete, and we all wanted to do. Well, and we supported each other in that. And when you bleed, and sweat and cry with somebody every day, you know, you get to be pretty close to. There's also the fear that you will never be this good at anything again or as relevant JJ Rettig. Look, the reality is you have a lot more power a lot more juice a lot more relevancy when it says your name, and it says active NBA player versus your name retired NBA player. So me as a person nothing will have changed five years from now. But I I won't have active NBA player next to my name. The thought that cross your mind is like I'm really good at at basketball. I've done it a high level for a long time and have had success and provided me a very nice living. And like what if I try something else? And I'm just awful at it. I I feel like I'm as prepared as anyone for the other side of it. And it still scares me. Dominic Foxworth thought he was pretty prepared to he and his wife had a couple of kids. He didn't know exactly what he wanted to do other than keep winning. I went to business school because I was like all right now, I'm going to keep competing like I'll go to best business school. And then I got there and out surprise with like how much mushy soft classes that we have that was about. Our feelings, and integrity and all that stuff. And I do remember one professor said that. In wasn't to me directly. It was just to the class. But it felt he was talking to me directly. And what he said something to the fact of the operating system that used to to get here may not be that rating system that you need going forward. And like that resonated with me because I feel like that's definitely true for me. But I don't know they don't just like release updates for human. Modify mop rating system is is is slower more challenging process Foxworth thought he lake being chief operating officer of the NBA players union in New York. My wife was pregnant with our third child, and which she was not feeling good. And I was getting up at like six thirty to ride the subway to to work with a bunch of other people who aren't happy about where they were going to work, and I remember banking like my happy. I have enough money that I don't have to be unhappy for fun. He started writing about sports. Now, he writes end does broadcasting for a variety of ESPN outlets. I went to business school in part because I fancy myself as a smart person, who's more than an athlete. And so like there's parts of me. That's like embarrassed that I like right about sports and talk about sports. But then there's parts of me. That's like, this is awesome. Get to pick up my kids from school and take them to school. It's not that. Like, oh, my life is boring. It's like am. I doing the right thing am I doing the best thing. I can with this fortunate situation that I'm in what also like excessive. I think is a feeling of loneliness, honestly, which and it's not like I've three kids in my wife, and I'm not like a loan, obviously, a loved them and have fun with them. But throughout my life. I have. Have been almost myopically focused on a goal which being focused on that goal. I gave me purpose. And I'm sure I'm going to butcher the native quote, but it's something to the effect of when a man has a why he can bear almost anyhow. And like, I was I didn't I don't drink. Now. Never drank in my life. I never smoke. We like I was singly focussed on doing everything every decision. I made was like all right. I'm gonna get closer to go. And I my people I was close with in high school like those aren't my friends anymore. People close with in college like not really my friends anymore. And then at thirty five I'm in DC where my wife has. A bunch of family and friends friends that she's been close with since they want a second grade. And like, and I'm like. I don't really have that. So certainly don't like feel sad or anything. But these things that I am becoming more aware of now. I feel like I'm in a perpetual state of transition, which is interesting and uncomfortable at the same time. Thanks to Dominic Foxworth and all the other athletes we heard from today and throughout our hidden side of sports series. Also the team and league officials scholars and everyone else if you want to hear my full conversation with Foxworth it was a long one fascinating will be publishing that soon. Meanwhile, coming up next time on freakonomics radio. My name is rugged rodgen. He was one of the very few people who essentially predicted the financial crisis. It was good. There was a reason for concern Roger has been busy since then including a stint as head of the central Bank of India. So what's he worried about now quite a few things, including the global taste for populist politics. It's the onces to provide which often are too easy and wrong at the same time wrongheaded, populism bad economics and Rogers prescription getting back to community. What's next time on freakonomics radio? Radio is produced by Stitcher, and w productions this episodes produced by Andres Kelco, Derek John Alvin mouth and Alison Craig low with help from Matt strap and Harry Huggins air staff also includes Greg Rippin Zach Lipinski we had helped this week from Nelly Osborne. Our theme song is Mr. fortune by the Hitchhiker's all the other music was composed by the we scare you can subscribe to freakonomics radio on apple podcasts or ever you. Get your podcast the entire archive is available on the Stitcher app or at freakonomics dot com, where we also publish transcripts and show notes and much more. We can also be found on Twitter, Facebook and Lincoln or via Email at radio at freakonomics dot com. Freakonomics radio also plays on most of your better NPR stations. Check your local station for details as always thanks for listening. Stitcher.

National Football League NBA football basketball Dominique Foxworth Lauren Murphy United States baseball UFC Olympics Andre Ingram Victor Matheson Walsh Jennings Boston Red Sox executive Stephen dubner USC Charles clot Ameritech
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1:13:50 hr | 9 months ago

Part 1: Steve Sherack, Michael Tomlinson

"Sirius Xm ports presents with Steve. Big Horse racing handicapping interviews. This is stupid. A very good Wednesday rice fans series to nineteen exempt to a one sports on nine sixty. Four if you're listening to Sirius. Xm Online and that our website to Steve Dot Com and mid week and every every entity in and Industry Oregon doing what they can to operate under the stressful and demanding and uncertain conditions. And really it's it's seemingly miraculous that the tracks that are operating and planning to operate are going forward and It's GONNA come. I think as a a very welcome diversion as the realities set in Of the distancing. And you know the isolation concepts trying to minimize the spread of the Covet and you have to just marvel frankly at the fortitude involved of racetrack personnel and the trainers and Barnes staff etcetera. That are handling this to their credit and the appreciation of the owners and horace players and fans etc. So the reaction to the Derby. Move to me at this point it a given what is being widely discussed and digested by the public. We're we're derby ended up on where the Derby ended up on the calendar. And how things are going to unfold from there. I it how how important in the general scheme of things that To me that that's a big part of this is you. Can't you can't be so caught up in whether the travers is going to be moved and this one? And where's where's everything? GonNa Fall and I it. It's not that important. It's really not it. It's a diversion. And ideally we'll be in a position to make the kinds of decisions to adjust to that schedule et CETERA. But in the meantime I the the anxiety and the angst over it it just seems completely misspent It right now on the businesses as not as usual but in the business sense of conducting what's sits on the calendar. The sale proceeded yesterday time. Comparing numbers is just not productive. Some some horses sold for Nice money. We're going to think talked to Steve Sharrock Andrew Bryant Denardo from. Td N they're down there to their credit went to cover and the top seller of the American Pharaoh Philly six hundred fifty thousand lip things up. Mr Yoshida Consumer Yeshiva bringing that Philly home and she topped the the sale. The top coat a five hundred thousand dollar into mischief my resource DOT COM and in association with spendthrift So we'll get a full report. Had little contact with Tom Vince. Or as a everybody doing what they can and yeah. The predictably high are rene rate just based on population etc the being on hand and some of the other uncertainties but we'll We'll touch base with With the guys and get some more details about thoughts and reaction Thoughts and reaction of course to the Derby move I got. The people wanted to get the answer that people were waiting for on the future wagers. some real Some really thorny issues associated with the the future wager and I you know at at a gut level with the race not being with the race. Not being run on the projected date doesn't that preclude that the the features of the future wager don't no longer apply. And you get I get the sense. That the strictly a pulse. But you get the sense that more people think that a refund of all the pools and then starting fresh would be the ideal way to proceed. But I I'm I'm hearing from that. That are very happy with the tickets. They're holding I. It's a weird thing and certainly the people that have tickets You know the authentic fifty to one in the first pool and lot of the people who have all others saying. I'm happy with my all other ticket. I don't know th that one that one's a that was a weird dynamic. It's sort of like when you know when there's a cue or or non Du and you know half the half. The people are are pleased. And and don't say anything and and the other half annoyed and are vocal. I it's a weird one from what I from what I gather from some of the things that some of the feedback. The number of people expressed that they wanted to let the action ride. And a lot said you know. Wipe the wipe the slate clean and start fresh. They're going to have a they're going to have a meeting. Thursday with KHRC and you know perhaps perhaps Khrc tells them you know that the wages future wages should be avoided because there is a date on the conditions of oaks date and the Derby date but doesn't revise date. I don't know is this. A condition conditions where there's horses that were scratched or says that CETERA. But what about the situation where the whole the whole date is his scratched and rescheduled? So there's so many things about this that are just so completely wrong and then out of just out of Kilter I mean you you just have to. I think be understanding of the unique circumstances that are involved in every direction one event and we may. I don't know if we'll get to him today. Maybe today reached. I heard from Nick. Lock and The grand national was cancelled and without a suggestion of being rescheduled. First Time since nineteen forty five. So we'll get to Nick Mike Michael Tomlinson as I promised The other day. Join us this hour as well said Fernando Sire Watch Pettit Refocus. We've got some of the winners from two weeks ago. We didn't get a chance to talk about the intimates. And then this weekend's results including actually got to mention this because exchange the notes with Jordan Wyckoff and the number for field pass came back very good on at least on the third graph and and he may be he may be sneaky and of course all of this if you saw Jay principes the train reactions. And you know all the trainers for the most part said the same thing unique. Circumstance will do what we have to do. Some are going to go forward with their immediate plans and others might adjust where they where they continue to run and there's also other than other shoes the fall regarding everybody else's scheduling so saw that video a Bob Baffert with comments and what Bob said the the J. as well you know first priority health wellbeing of everybody and just happy that they're therapies scheduled. Bill Motte just keep running not gonNA wrap it in bubble wrap is if I have a horse at Derby time. He'll go to the Derby. That's very just being practical. You know we talked yesterday a little bit you know Max Field etc time anyway. So benefits him. It's just a different. It's just a different entity. The timing is completely different and the horses arcs are going to be different. Just is is so much going on with this that it isn't it isn't worthwhile to just completely shaken by the the events the these are the least of our worries. Frankly but it's a pleasant diversion. That's what we want from it right. That's why we do it though. We're going to talk to Steve Iraq after the break and Go from there. Seth Merrill later as well a couple of other visitors taking a break beautiful sunny day cool but a pretty day back after this. Athol races with Steve Vic on Sirius. Xm radio thoroughbred racing at Sam Houston continues through March Twenty eighth with the March Twenty First Texas Champions Day on the horizon. The Best Texas breads in the state or anywhere come together over a million dollars in first buddy Tuesday afternoon racing starts up and the twelve percent takeout off multi-legged wagers as S. H. R. P. The most popular destination for horse players this winter S. H. R. Dot Com. Sam Houston Race Park. Follow Sam Houston on twitter's well S. H. R. B. Two year olds in California. Police consider leadership leading all natural pace to greatly reduce or eliminate the worst of trainers who trust leader shielded. Shouldn't you join the team to earn more contact? Joseph Allante five six eight zero the business of horses in the world's only accredited equine business program. The University of Louisville Equine Business Program. The University of Louisville has a legacy of excellence for more than twenty five years of equine business. Education classes are taught by industry experts in state of the art facilities located in the heartland of America's Equine Industry the University of Louisville Equine Business Program. When it comes to horses we mean business for More Information Visit Business Dot Louisville dot edu slash equine. The North American folk crop continues to decline but not here in Pennsylvania in two thousand nineteen. Our number of mayors braid increased for third year in a row. This time by twelve and a half percent why are stallion roster continues to grow. We have the best incentives and bonuses plus. There's the stability of our Racehorse Development Fund. Why breed anywhere else? This is Brian San Fratello go to PA. Bread DOT COM and see why Pennsylvania is the premier place to breed in race has gone soon. Have you seen this commercial? What University of Arizona Race Track? It program can prepare you for an exciting career in racing. Turn Your Passion into paycheck horse racing school. The fabric went to. Yeah Todd Pletcher to and lots of other major players in every area of the industry really like what well for starters we have graduates who are executives at Churchill downs naira golly America Gulfstream keeneland. You name it. They're also regulators racing officials. Bloodstock agents track announcers. Mike Class had a job placement rate of almost ninety percents. Wow what other college program has results like water. What career track are you on the University of Arizona Race? Track Industry Program Enroll today and get on track for success. Nearly ninety percent of our students are floyd in the racing industry immediately upon graduation for scholarship opportunities and more check out our website at Ayar T. Dot Org hey you know back to the races with Sirius. Xm radio rocks again. I don't you have no backbone coming up a twenty two hour one on this Wednesday and The workouts last week and into the weekend and the two year old in training sale season. Such as it's going to be is underway and yesterday I tuned in about a half an hour. Forty five minutes. I guess it was about eleven. Yeah about eleven fifteen started watching and and then pretty much kind of checked in several different times and a couple of hips. Were kind of watching and we knew that the numbers were not going to be the same. It was going to be tough anyway with a two million dollar seller last year But the the trade Certainly went on and Steve Chirac and Brian de Denardo of td n doing the coverage to their credit and It it did seem what's the gavel started knocking. Steve Chirac that There was a sense of business as usual at least You know through the session. Good Morning Good Morning Steve. Yes I wouldn't business as usual kind of scary out there right now but I think everybody was kind of hoping their collective breath is this thing was getting underway. But you still see horses moving hands and selling for for good prices here. Six hundred sixty thousand dollars topper. I would never think by looking at the sheets of saying Oh man. The gross is down to twelve million after twenty two million last year and just the average taken a big hit. But I think you almost have to be happy with this results considering the climate and the cell is going to happen at this point. I think that's fair and that's certainly you know the tone that the Tom Ventura set with us yesterday going in and then even yesterday recapping last year was going to be a tough number to beat anyway. What'S THE DIFFERENCE. I it is more says changed hands and you know some Consigners and and And breeders are seeing the transactions go through etc and that's productive Yeah and there's also plenty of time I already saw quite a few. Ps private sale. You know postscript. The sales and Tom said that they would keep the books open longer than usual. So there might be some aftermath the purchasing as well. And you know there's always the aftermarket portion Talk about the atmosphere. You you and Brian doing a great job. You know coming in and talking about the unique circumstances. It's obviously an uphill battle here Stephen from this for covering standpoint. We didn't make it down so cal both covering this remotely from New Jersey Right now. But we're getting trying our best to get a hold of everybody. Everybody's obviously always willing to talk and consigners have been great. And they're doing so much legwork down there getting the word out to everybody. I'm sure there's a lot of online bidding and stuff from afar to happening here with with the agents better down there definitely in touch with all their owners and everybody's really going one hundred percent at this and I think we're all kind of all like I said we're holding our breath but you see a lot of the big name storm sheets and forces again moved on like you just pointed out the private sales are going to be a big a big thing to now. After the fact once maybe. These consigners had unrealistic expectations or wanted to hold onto the horse's a little bit longer. But there's plenty of business being done at the Barnes even right now. I'm sure as you keep saying these private sales keeping up on the sheets I keep going refreshes on my my My Internet browser here and it's also nice to see now as well give us a couple of Backstories on some of the the pin hook successes and of course that's always a big part of the season when it comes to the two year old sale and watching TV and you guys have that fun that fun pin Hook Guide that that I very regularly print that out and then you know. We'll we'll try to scour to see you know who as Muirfield insurance says nothing but net on the on the turnaround from from yearling to two year old. The purchase. A talk about the Zayat bred American Farrell Philly led to session. So he's great because this is one of the things that I've always loved about the two year old sales you see that the pin hooks whether you have a now the the numbers of bigger some guys try to pin hooking five hundred thousand dollars a quality road that aren't aide yesterday that was Very expensive growing but then you also have horses that are twenty three thousand dollars feelings and guys get hit them out of the park. Names like here nick. Merrick the folks top line and pick you all these consigners all kind of still stepping up and doing what they do here and it's nice to see them get rewarded. There was a run happy from pick. Views fell for good money at four. Seventy five was the number facial structure last year the Breeders Cup winners so it's nice to see some new faces getting into the game as well. Top Line is also name. That's coming up there that they're doing well so horses. But you're still seeing a lot of the veteran consigners procure downs and nick merricks and Eddie Woods. They're still popping up with these kind of horses to the thing. That's scary with these two year old sales right now. Obviously the getting pushed back some again cancelled thankfully abuse going on here. But the whole thing you have to have you guys get their money back to yearling looking ahead. You don't WanNa look too far ahead now but no two year old sells everything gets pushed back. These people all have so much money vested into the sport and this is their livelihood to move these sources. They don't move these two year olds they're gonNA be shopping for yearlings. It's Kinda hearts. Imagine you WanNa panic at this point but that I think that's the big worry at this point of people you need to move these sources now that these people are banking on selling this year old. Well one of the other things that I guess is predictable in You. Know in this setting. Is that a lot of the bankable. A lot of the bankable pedigrees and breeze results to match our command. The top dollar. I mean that was going to be true. Honestly that'd be true anyway but it doesn't seem like it's a scenario where people are going to be as willing to roll the dice. Although I will mention there was the three hundred ninety thousand dollar air force blue. Colds that Willis. Horton bought that horse at a beautiful move and obviously these first crop sires. People always seem to gravitate towards but of all the horses that I was putting down on my list here at my shortlist just based off a breeze with might have been in my top ten of just how horses were moving so you obviously the physical part of it going to but we'll always buy some nice sources on looking forward to see that where it's run for. Sure he'll be on my stable mail going forward. That was early in the session. Two side by Rice Horse Brandon Alley Rice. And it's it's kind of funny air force. Blue with with two extremes on the day only had two horses that sold the couple came out But had the three hundred eighty three hundred ninety thousand dollar gold and then had a two thousand dollar Philly so both ends of the spectrum right absolutely. But that's the thing these these freshman sires in the spotlight down here and everybody wants to kind of have the the first one and they seem to gravitate gravitate towards them at these cells. All the time there. there's four more air force blue. That'll sell today and one. That came out You know we mentioned the American Pharaoh. There was a second Nice the Fairly late session at three nineteen the another Karen done Three hundred and twenty thousand John Kimmel bought and I don't know if that's for if there's a client associated with that. Did you hear anything about who bought this four? I didn't I know he's been buying for the same owner for the last couple of urine from my the head right now but he's been shopping for the personal last couple years. We've had some success and it's good to see him back to the wall and he's showing up at these two year old salads with Bob more enforcing the last two or three years. We've got You mentioned the run. Happy's let's touch on some of the other First CROP results That Caught your eye. You don't see a lot from yesterday but I think they have their their big today. Everybody was kind of waiting for Nyquist and frost of this year. There are a couple. I think that are going today. That are GONNA be stand out. There was a lot yesterday that ornate. I haven't checked to see if it was a private purchase yet but those are two of the the big names at the yearling sales watching the breezes. I really like how the Nyquist moved on the track. I was really excited themselves. But I think today you're going to see them pop up a little bit more Those are really the two big names and obviously it's impossible not think affront happy with all the advertising and they held their own rank you and just seeing the one seventy five. Yesterday was a really good sign for him in a good indicator. But I'd say Nyquist and frosted you're going to hear some things about also exaggerate or I really like the way. Some of some of them were a little grassy to me but I think I had maybe three or four hits watch exaggerate or on my list too. But it's I had had to say those. Three NYQUIST frosted exaggerate or kind of the big three. I'm looking for and thinking you might see more more results from today. That that open semis speaking today. what What some of the the top tips to watch. Let's see here I don't have the numbers right in front of me at this morning. At the moment I know there would some frost. It's like I was saying into mischief. Had A LOTTA HORSES TO WATCH? You got a couple of sales. Yesterday there was some constitutions late in the cell that can make some noise a hip. Numbers don't have ran for me right now but it's kind of a usual suspects or some of those big sires. You could see some breakout horses. And just the general vibe from the consigners and even the folks that everybody seems to think that some of the better horses were going to be on day to kind of the sale is worked in the past the day ones that lead up now this year obviously people. Maybe we're waiting around a little bit longer but I think you are going to see some some bigger numbers going today. Hopefully Steve Chirac with us from Td. And Steve Did you get a chance to kind of peruse the the outlets and see there's also the potential for some. You know some fancy pedigrees to you know pull back and wait and you know. Show up wherever things are going to. You know whether it's a whatever the the April sale however that's gonNA materialize. I mean that had become. That's become a key had become a key two year old season shopping center. And now we've got a at least tentatively scheduled to him. Phasing Tipton combining the Gulfstream the rescheduled gulfstream or cancelled Gulfstream sale. I wouldn't be surprised if some people just felt like Let me let me take my my prize pig and and go to the fair. You know down the road. Yeah there were. There were seemed to be a higher amount of scratches than usual. Since they opened it up. I think four or five years ago. Now it's no longer select sale that you're not really going to see the big flashy pedigrees phase. A Gulfstream sell more the flashy siblings. But you still get this cell really. Now you're still going to get the top SARS you get some nice freshman sires. But they're really more about trying to get the Nice physicals. Getting people attracted to how the horses look and you could live with the page through a little weak on the damn side. But you're still GONNA get some sire power short-sea with American Charlotte's mischief and he's detraction. Sires that everybody's excited about but we'll see what these other shows. Don't be April really everybody you talk to now really compares to Keeneland September the yearly market that their catalog keeps growing. There's something for everybody. There's those really expensive top price lots over the sea horses. They're going to get the middle market guys showing up too because there's so much to choose from but people do like to think of it as the became on. September sale now for two year olds. But we'll see. They haven't made an announcement yet. It's very shaky grounds if you can get in this sale off. And they're gonNA have to make the decision soon if they push back or if they're if they try to add a cell that they they're already at capacity for April but they're gonNA have a lot of horses though that need to get sold after however this shakes out here between the scratches and as they're going to be a lot it's Europe it's still need to find new home so kind of just waiting like everybody else get through today and see where where this thing ends up absolutely well and just as I thumbed through the results pages from yesterday The Frankel The one Frankel in the sale three hundred twenty thousand The Teen Cassie Tomorrow that was also wants to watch. Karen done was a little disappointed with the price but he he all consigners. Maybe some people held onto worse if he got rid of almost everything. I think he's still ten out of twelve yesterday and he was confident that his other two. We're going to be private sales. He's been doing this a long time. And even if he was maybe disappointed attack with a couple. It's all about turnover and keep a keep the trains roll and he wanted to keep moving and sources and just keep going on but I believe he did say he thought that one was maybe GonNa bring a little bit more and he. He definitely thought she was a rock. Star was very high on her and go into very smart buying outfit team. Cassie so it's another one to keep an eye on going forward and excited to have uh Frankel in the states here to watch for the two year old season well the The weekend was good to carry a as well indirectly with with the purchase He had been involved in the purchase of Field Pass for The wyckoff the Jeff Ruby winner as well so Waver a nice race. He's got another. I guess I'm a triple crown travel therapy trail here but that worst run a big race over there. His win at Gulfstream was really nice. I gravitated to the wrong horse out of the Tonya Beach. But it happens but that was a real game. Performance Room getting up there as good race but Does it all a lot of these? Consigners are selling to your own doing that breaking horses or buying horses privately. Everybody kind of goes a little bit of everything but this is obviously the the bread and butter here. That's a lot of these guys. Well going to tune in I'll have the on the line in the background. Ten thirty we kick off day two and the usual the usually busy Two year old in training sale season for the end coverage You you'RE GONNA have this blast and then you'll take the the wait and see. I suppose waiting like everybody else and hope and things get back to normal here at some point but just for the industry is thankfully these races still being run at some tracks and everybody wants to be out there. But you can't but just keep in some sense of normalcy now. Having these races got hopefully getting these two year old so fails going to keep the market alive and keep the turnover because we need to keep this thing obviously on the right track here but it's very scary times. It's hard not to see it that way but we just have to pray for the best and keep moving forward here. Exactly Steve Chirac. Everybody The Daily News and all the sales coverage as always extensive and detailed so pulled up and Follow along stave. Stay safe and we'll talk so thank you appreciate it not at all so you. Sharaf everybody and you can follow Steve. And all the main every body on the staff. Tedium Steve Sharak. Td In this is address. Think a break past the bottom of the hour. Michael Tomlinson is going to join US and last week. I had mentioned when when Chuck had visited on Wednesday said that Mike was going to visit. We didn't get a chance Thursday Friday but want to get his thoughts. He had some perspective from Pale smaller size stable to last week. And you know so much of what we hear. When it comes to the suspicions of people cheating a lot of times we source players will say well. Why don't the other trainers et? Why don't why don't they complain? Why don't they and it's a tough situation to be in and Chuck Chuck Chuck has addressed that before. Actually we've had that that discussion and you don't ever you know you don't want to be perceived as you know as jealous and discussed it that you don't have the kinds of courses that other guys have and other outfits have so that's part of it but maybe that maybe maybe that'll change in part of because of last week step away. Michael Tomlinson joins US next. It's aberrations with Steve Kick on Sirius. Xm radio put an online tournament that boasts no rakes. Gamer takeout with a ten thousand dollar first prize. Here it is clear expressed bet live online. Saturday march twenty first expressed bed live is for account holders only with no registration or other. 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Numbers could change your life a lot of people on the stand including myself. I didn't now. I do the impact of having a show. My memory is shot when I woke up. I couldn't speak if I would've followed a treatment plan. I would not be in this situation. Tough journey lowering. Your high blood pressure could save you from a heart attack or stroke. If you've stopped your treatment plan restarted or talk to your doctor about creating one. That works better for you. Start taking the right steps at manager. Bp Dot Org. It's nice. But I WANNA make it better comeback. Ask Your doctor check your blood pressure. Business of horses in the world's only accredited equine business program the University of Louisville Equine Business Program. The University of Louisville has a legacy of excellence for more than twenty five years of equine business. Education classes are taught by industry experts in state of the art facilities located in the heartland of America's Equine Industry the University of Louisville Equine Business Program. When it comes to horses we mean business for More Information Visit Business Dot Louisville dot edu slash equine from early wind. The people that bring you EP. L. Equine unlock and leader shield. Now comes flex Safai. Ha The most advanced scientifically based joint supplement on the market to find out more. Contact Me Joseph Allante and two one five five zero one. Six eight eight zero to be the best. Give them only the best B. R. L. Equine bringing down the biggest stories in the world of four saying. This is not the races with Steve Bank on Sirius. Xm radio is. We're coming up on twenty so the top of the Hour San Fernando. Join US fire. Watch headed refocused brought to you by Hillen. Dale then killing a lot of a lot of the three year olds to talk about and right now though Michael Tomlinson joins us and and ideally. I would like to reach out to Michael to congratulate him on a stake win and that that's the ideal circumstance but the conversation will focus on ripped from today's headlines manner of Discussion and first of all Michael Good Morning. Good morning state everybody. Okay Vicki and Everybody healthy and secured So far so good fighting. We're all doing just fine on the floor. Shot and with no keeneland. I I suppose You might you might say a little bit longer now. Yeah the clients have had to be altered it a little bit but You know it Especially Becky it's a it's a real tough job for her to have to stay down here and go to the pool and and And Cook and relax and good job taking care of me as as well as Sir spending her time relaxing well and we should explain That that Vicky Tomlinson and certainly not everybody that competes in in Kentucky knows Vicki's role working at Churchill in the horsemen's relations department. And just you know one of those people along with Tracy Wilkes in the afternoons to that kind of makes things go between the the racing office and and you know the winners circle and all the things that you know that. Go on kind of behind the scenes and I I'M GONNA circle back to last week at a minute Michael. But given given your position and Vicki's role with with Churchill. I mean the reaction to the Derby move and a what what having Derby Means to Louisville essentially well. I think that's the reason I postponed. But not the cancelation as What occurred with Keeneland The Darby is such an important Event in the horse racing world as well as locally for level You know it's just a situation where I don't think it would be wise to totally cancel it. So hopefully this works out and and all these bumps in the road that works benching right. Now in the writing world will smooth out and And everything will be back to normal and We'll all being joined the great sport that we all love in the future when it comes to the way you're handling it and and the perspective that I wanted you to offer to last week's headlines and and Really just awful. And and such you know such disgust and disappointment associated with the indictments and With the you know the high profile horses involved etc I wanted you you offer to To share your perspective. Because you're you're a a real rank and file horsemen outfit with you. Know somebody that that averages. About one hundred and seventy-five starts a year. You know year in year out. has stay courses when they come along and you know without you. The game doesn't function Talk about the Michael. Your thoughts as to what we witnessed last week. And and your gut reaction and then what you think. It means long term. Well my Initial thought was It's about time That we finally get to the bottom of what's been going on because horsemen Like myself have known for years that there was certain people who were Taking and they didn't take advantage of the situation and You know it was a real frustration trying to outrun certain train nurse It was Even a bigger frustration of having those trainers climbed horses from you that Were Nice sources. Very solid kind of horses and You look up in About three to four weeks and the horses have run their bar. Numbers improved fifteen points and It really reflects on the guy who's tried to play by the rules And I it's finally event the -CATION for US folks out here. Who are trying to do it right. Trying to take care of the horse primarily and then turn by taking care of the Horse. Take care of the and It's it's been a real source of frustration for many of us. One thing I I mentioned coming into the into the segment to Michael the and it's something that Chuck Simon who you know. Well that Chuck has addressed before to which is the public and really more the horse playing public especially not ever understanding. Why other outfits? Why other trainers generally you know didn't come out publicly and it's not just this specific set of circumstances but really you know over any any period of time Explain what the you know what? The thought process is About you know maybe complaining to racing secretaries and and to racetrack management about what's potentially happening. But you know. Really not really not expanding. You know the the complaints and I don't want to say accusations but not you know making more public The the unhappiness with with the situation that that's apparent to the well you know we as an industry as well as You know socially issue. It's there's a lot of pressure to win at any cost And bleed dried over into sports of all kinds And consequently you have always will have people who are trying to take edge and trying to be too whether it's fair. Not but you know with that being said You know without knowing and being able to prove That things were going on You know the boy too slippery slope to step out there and start accusing people of cheating even though Through your decades of experience you know. It's not normal for horses to run the kind of races that some of the tortures were running So you know you can complain. You can talk to owners And I feel somewhat vindicated because I've been chirping for for a long time about this and and Knowing that something was going on as a lot of people and finally the proofs in the pudding and And maybe you know there's more domino's yet to how in my opinion there's you know it wasn't just two people. I think there's more people that Are very nervous at this point in time and as well they should be so hopefully With the proof chime in the crane come to the top and we finally know what happened and what they were doing Maybe it'll slow things down and and that'll make a lot more even playing field for US guys who are trying to do it right. And on that topic I wanted to really want to follow up with two elements one and I. I even said this in the immediate aftermath Because as you as you just said this can't even under these circumstances it isn't a license for anybody Suggest Pell mell accused anybody that that seemingly has improved a horse just immediately make accusations and as somebody Michael that that really is a a meat and potatoes horsemen that that only takes on many horses on on the show as you can. Put Your hands on the talk about the real practical and and successful elements of you know claiming a horse and improving them. Because there's there's plenty of people out there that are going to continue to to get a horse at the claim box. Find out something that's been bothering them and improve them and it cannot be just a a our environment where you're immediately accused for doing a good job. Well that that's exactly bride and and There's many instances of horses who have been climbing. The trainer found something that the previous trainer overlooked and I've been lucky enough in and a few cases to do that but as majority of the time it's a higher incidence of holding the horses values than improving one If you can claim the horse hold its value when a rice The owner makes a little money. You sell the Horse in the future rights through the claiming box and you move on. That's that is the norm You know the exception is the horse that you claiming that moves up and that will happen. But it's not gonNA happen on a Day by day basis like it was in some of these guys that we that we caught in the act here lately and some of the guys who given into the dark side. So you know it's it's GonNa Happen But It's the frequency and the regularity of it. That makes a difference. I fold in folding the ownership side of this too and you made one reference to owners and what has to be maddening to to know that you're operating on the level and it is just a a job that that any owner would be happy with and watching whether it's new owners or or probably even more frustrating. A owners gravitate in the direction of of people that you know that you are fairly confident are not you know following all the rules. Well you know their game as I was talking about earlier. You know the You're always gonNA have that segment of the population that Win at any cost the the owners that have that mentality You know not all of them but some of them have no Respect for the Horse You know the bottom line is horse is is why we're here. The Hor- should be protected and the horse should be cared for at the highest level And let the chips fall where they may but if you Our donor and we all want to win but You can't tell me that these owners that were participating with things other people Get Not at least in their gut know that something was right and I saw on You Know People's parties to To you know change that Thinking that and to go with their gut failing when they know. Something's not right so you know it. It's quite a quite the Lemba you know we all want to win but There is a line that some people who've crossed absolutely. I also Michael would love you to address the what is what is going to be seemingly a a blurry line and I think there's probably a lot more conversation that's GonNa come out as as the the arraignments and and whatever you know whatever. I'm sure there'll be plenty of plea bargaining that goes on but one one of the things that I think. A lot of people are waiting to see. Shakeout is what it what products in terms of supplements and whether they're homeopathic. Whatever kind of I. You know natural supplements that that horses can receive that you know that are absolutely drug-free essentially But are designed. You know to to help the the equine athlete. I mean it it. It's going to be very murky. And maybe I don't know maybe that's maybe that's a good scenario but he you know you're the ones that are on the front lines caring for the horses daily and people do need to understand that. There's that there's products that are are beneficial and legal. That can help the horse and in and in some cases particularly when when it's going to come to the discussion regarding that. Spf One thousand. At some point it went from benign to malignant. And it's unclear when that happened. But what's your feeling on understanding what you can give a horse these days and what you can't well. I think it's The line is performance enhancing and There are many many good Therapeutic medicines and Supplements that allow horse to run to his natural ability. But as we know These guys have been using performance. Enhancing Drugs Right You know and my my mile bull opinion coming from small guy who is dependent as livelihood is dependent on this game We've got a lot of stuff going on right now We got the integrity. Act that they're trying to get through which My personal opinion is the last thing we want is the federal government running our business We need all of the states to together Get a representative from each racing jurisdiction on a board that sets the rules and the penalties and we need them to stick with those rules A lot of talk what I hear. The problem is the perception of horse racing and I think that You know when when this came out last week I was really nervous about what that would do to the Push forward on the course racing's integrity and now. I think we all agree. Something needs to be done. But I'm just not a person who agrees it needs to be done at the federal level but Per Section comes from the lack of Penalty for the repeat offenders in our game We have people training right now that have had dozens and dozens of bad tasks and been caught doing things that are very contrary to racing rules and They get a little slap on the wrist. And they're back training and back rocking and rolling and six months to a year There needs to be three strike rule There there's all kinds of ways and and we can't cover then time this year and I have a but Their per section of our game is not coming from eliminating lasix. Snot coming You know from a lot of the things that they're going after But the perception is the repeat offenders that they keep going. Keep coming back and Everyone knowing that these guys have been using performance enhancing drugs. Not The good therapeutic medications I challenge anybody to tell me that. Tiger Woods takes either propane the night before he goes On the golf course does that make him a better offer no it just allows him to compete to his ability. And that's all any of us want is a level playing field through and to be able to make responsible decisions for the equine athlete You know in partnership with the the athlete to help them to perform at their best level. Well you know we end up. Do going to high out in water The thing that's the betting public is going to experience a lot more inconsistencies and the white horse is wrong and Consistency should be something that We owners and trainers and racing industry should be concerned about Consistency allows the handicapper. Who is alive and blood of our business You know to bet responsibly. And and and bet competently that He's getting a fair shake and I think they're gonNA run into a big problem as well as others If all this happens through the integrity yet and It's you know our game is changing and I don't mind changing with it. but When when you go to Hay oats and water there's always gonna be guys who were looking for the edge and if you've got enough money to know how to beat the system like these guys have done for years. It's GONNA widen the gap between the guys better playing by the rules and the guys who are taking the edge so you know it's really complicated time or going through right now. Michael Tomlinson with us. He's literally Cowboy Oklahoma State Cowboy and and one of the one of the guys I reference. Although I'll tell you what you're you're you're getting to be almost the last cowboy standard with with with scooter dickey retiring and and Carl. Carl Nascar kind of pretty much retired. You're you're the anybody else around the game with a with a belt buckle or to a well you know there's a lot of younger fellow assist I've heard about but you know when you get a few years on you. You start getting separate from all those folks so it's just it's It's the situation where I don't know many of them anymore. Still all my cowboy was done back before the war. You know. I don't mean that literally slow Michael Tomlinson who one of our absolute favorites and Vicky Vicky on hiatus until such time as the Churchill Spring meet is some decisions are reached. We'll see how that is going to play out but Michael I was eager to get you on. And and you know let everybody hear from you because the game the game absolutely counts on on horsemen like you and just You know honest hard working and applying the trade in a very very quietly and Always capable when when a when a search Cherokee comes along or any of the of the nice stay courses that That you've managed so I appreciate the insights and continued success. Keep everybody healthy. The boys what. We're what we're the boy spread out. Well we've got We've got the youngest and he's down here in Florida. Working matter of fact He. He lives About a mile from Gull Strength. So we get to see him quite a bit My middle son is home from Thailand for a while and mild. The Sun is an attorney there in Kentucky so so we got everybody back in the States. And everybody's doing state well Hope everybody stays safe and healthy Mike Best of luck going forward will look forward to home base running soon and we'll see you see you down. The road is proctor. Says Okay Buddy. Nice to talk to you. I really appreciate it. Michael Tomlinson everybody with the same kind of frank conversation and reaction we need. We need to hear from thank a break top of our two little past and said Fernando Sire. Watch pedigree focused brought to you by hill and Dale as mentioned in promised. Nick Walk a little in the wake of the grand national being cancelled and racing being halted yesterday the British horseracing authority making the decision to suspend racing. So we'll get mixed reaction on that we'll also get the hadn't had a chance yet Monday Tuesday to do any Never even mentioned the Cheltenham Gold Cup. So let Nick Zip on that and you may see the news circulating that. Nbc has made an arrangement to essentially pass through broadcast TV. Gee trackside live action this weekend so to some degree between Fox and now NBC. The only seeming live sports action out. There is going to be thoroughbred racing. It's unbelievable let's take a break sit. Fernando joins US NEXT BACK IN BROOKLYN. Athol races with feedback on Sirius. Xm radio develop by horsemen. Worst BILLS DOT COM is a cost effective time sitting environment friendly paperless revolution of how equine industries bill receive payments vendors rape will generate electronic invoices for each horse whose owners can pay through the same website with just one click say goodbye his tax of Invoices handwritten checks postage costs easy accounting for all parties with the highest online security measures get started freed horse bills dot com simply registered with your name and email address redesign up no subscription piece defenders until the first invoices sent for owners. You get a free account. Comprehensive Dashboard with information on all horses own billing records. Ach and credit card. Payment options for vendors generate invoices efficiently and receive payments quickly from both owners and other vendors syndicate and partnership managers get flexible billion payment options to both genders and syndicate members for more INFO. Call eight eight eight nine. Three eight forty six forty three eight eight eight nine. Three eight forty six forty three or log onto a horse bills DOT COM. That's horse bills. Dot Com get started in Kentucky over eight million dollars in additional. Money is available at the five Kentucky tracks for horses eligible for the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund Kentucky is a good place to raise your Kentucky bred. Come home to and make a start. Braf's Sports Forum digital edition your ultimate weekly. Bending Guide published by daily racing form. Diaw sports for him delivers all of the analysis and insight. You need for every. Nfl gained more than forty college. Football matchups beat the spread with powerful drenching. Sharp-angle tap best bets expert picks parley winters and more offered as four ninety nine per issue. This week's addition free visit era dot com slash sports for Enter Code D. R. F. Sports developed by horsemen worst bills dot com a cost effective time sitting environment friendly paperless revolution of how equine industries bill and receive payments vendors are able to generate electronic invoices for each horse whose owners can pay through the same website with just one click say could bodies tax if invoices handwritten checks postage costs easy accounting for all parties with the highest online security measures get started freed horse bills dot com simply registered with your name email address free to develop by horsemen horse bills dot com cost effective time sitting Environment Prenton paperless revolution of how Equine Industries Bill and receive payments vendors able generate electronic invoices for each horse whose owners can pay through the same website with just one Click Saket Bodies Tax Invoices Handwritten Jackson postage costs easy account for all parties with the highest online security measures get started free at horse bills dot com simply registered with your name and email address redesign up no subscription fees defenders until the first invoices sent. Brunner's you the free account comprehensive dashboard with information on all horses own billing records. Ach and credit card. Payment options for vendors generate invoices efficiently receive payments quickly from boat owners and other vendors syndicate and partnership managers get flexible billion payment options to both genders syndicate members for more INFO. Call eight nine. Three eight forty six forty three eight nine three eight forty six forty three or log onto horse bills DOT com. That's horse bills. Dot Com get started in Kentucky over eight million dollars in additional. Money is available at the five Kentucky tracks for horses eligible for the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund Kentucky is a good place to raise your Kentucky bred. Come home to Kentucky and make Stock D. R. F. Sports for Digital Edition your ultimate weekly. Bannon guide published by daily racing. Form the R F sports for delivers all of the analysis and insight. You need for every NFL game. In more than forty college football match ups beat the spread with powerful trend sharp angles tapping best bets expert picks parley winners and more all four ninety nine aparicio yet. This week's addition free visit dot com slash sports for Enter Code P R F sports of Arizona Race Tracking Reprogram. Prepare you for an exciting career in racing. Turn your passion into paychecks. Nearly ninety percent of our students are employed in the racing industry immediately upon graduation. What career track are you on University of Arizona Race Track Industry Program Role Today and get on track for success for scholarship opportunities and more check out our website at UA at Ti Dot Org? Why is accreditation important in after care? The thoroughbred aftercare alliances standard of accreditation and GRANDPA's provide donors with confidence that their contributions are allocated in the most effective manner D. A. Accreditation is only awarded after a complete review of an organization after care cannot be an afterthought for the industry to learn more or support the TA's mission visit Thurber after care dot org now back to the races with Steve on Sirius. Xm Way to go off. Button is native. We're back at the races coming up on fifteen into our to Fernando joining us. Sire Watch pedigree focused brought to you by Hillen Dale and said back in Brooklyn as his trip and son. Joe's spring training derailed of course by the pandemic.

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Golden Globe Nominations and Ghostbusters Afterlife Trailer - Movie Talk

Collider Movie Talk

54:31 min | 1 year ago

Golden Globe Nominations and Ghostbusters Afterlife Trailer - Movie Talk

"Thank you for listening to this. podcast one production available on Apple podcasts. And podcast one. Hey everyone this is John Rocca from collider better by now you've likely heard about Disney plus the new streaming service that includes Disney Pixar Marvel Star Wars and National Geographic with all of these amazing brands in one place Disney plus as one of the most incredible libraries in the entire streaming landscape. And it's all ad free from beloved classics like Snow White in the seven. dwarves today's blockbusters like Captain Marvel Marvel Adventures. Endgame to critically acclaimed documentaries like National Geographic's free Solo. The caulton on Disney plus is truly unparalleled Disney plus also offer some of the most beloved TV TV shows of all time including thirty seasons of the Emmy Award Winning Animated Series The simpsons and if that weren't enough Disney plus also rolled out a host of originals. Like the man delorean the first ever Star Wars live action series and high school musical the musical the series very meditate on the beloved film franchise. It's no wonder Disney pluses become one of the most talked talked about streaming services of two thousand nineteen. So don't miss out sign up for Disney plus now and start streaming all this great content today on today's movie talk. We've got your weekend box office report and then on top of that. The Golden Globe nominees are here. We're breaking those down in addition to new very hot trailers a new trailer for wonder woman and the new ghostbusters movie. Happy Monday. Everyone hope you all had a wonderful weekend but I also hope that you're ready ready to go with a whole bunch of movie news today because we have a stacked show and I get to talk about all of these topics with two super cool guys. We've got silence on the desk today. An Roca Fellow and Roca were wearing only kick off the show killing takeoff on that this show is brought to you by heroes and villains. It's a collection of clothing for anybody who is part of a fan a and you want some really high quality closed for the brands that you love so much. Like let's say Star Trek Star Trek too soon as they showed me this. I lost my mind. This is such a fantastic little logo on their look at the back of this thing ever and now I feel like if you're a star Trek Fan they always competition those pretty awesome. It's a shame but I'm going to get back in the middle there. So if you WANNA ORNA get your hands on any of this stuff you just go on over to Heroes Villains DOT COM and you can use the Promo Code Talk Ten and you can get ten percents off your order. And and the thing is there's other discounts out there. Sue US talk ten on top of that discountenance get even more off so good deals over there. A lot of cool stuff are all right. Roca what did you WanNa talk about now. Little fantasy football something people in those movie top. We're real quick coast cloudy sports fans who don't say yeah you light up to three. Am in the morning when you're suffering through a little bit of tuberculosis your make changes and you doubt yourself and you sit Brahim most who got thirty two points yesterday yesterday and you lose two pair of number up by one damn boy. Can I want to be fair to you though I was watching as you weren't changing you're like Oh thank God. He's not changing his lineup. But then when I woke up Sunday morning and saw that you changed I thought you made some smart. It wasn't I feel like it wasn't a loss that should make you feel bad about how you set your lineup. Audrey went with Martin Freeman for. It wasn't a bad decision. I I just got stupid. Lucky on like a bad injury to which which made me very sad and I hope I hope or shod penny heels out fast. That was a rough one but That's where we all stand with fantasy football. I believe I had a playoff win in Adam Smith in the booth had a playoff face. Jeff and Jack and that's where it stands right now. Are you into fantasy track when he started talking head of feeling all right. Let's get back on track with our box office talk here. The top five of the weekend was frozen to coming out on top with thirty four point. Seven million dollars then we had knives out at number two with fourteen point two million Ford v Ferrari coming in at number three with six point. Five three seven million followed right behind by Queen Slim which made six point five three million and and then finally it was a beautiful day in the neighborhood with five point two million briefly for the top five. Is there anything that surprise you. That caught your eye that held stronger than you expected. I'm just happy that there are so many like interesting movies. That aren't necessarily sequels in in the top five. I think it's awesome. It's a testament to all all of those movies that their quality films that People WanNa see and are turning out for he had him on the more things change the more they say the same. Sorry I'm still suffering through this stuff but I love the fact back to December. It's Oscar season. It's award season. These are the movies. There's supposed to come out so for all this talk about superheroes summer tent poles and they're swallowing following up these other movies here. We are again with these. Movies are top five. Their unusual queen slim has nothing to do with knives out. Ford versus Ferrari is nothing new beautiful day in the neighborhood. Good and of course frozen to right at the top so to me. I like this collection. If you will further down yes maybe they didn't do as well but you've got dark waters twin bridges playing with fire midway and then and you get to joker at ten still hanging on so for me. I think I like it. It's a nice variety for this time of year. It's not another slate of superhero movies. Here it is. It is another or Disney movie even though frozenness to within this group of five it's still a unique selection of films and unique set of options. That you have out there but it's still a Disney movie and I gotTa bring up the Disney right now. Because they had an especially big milestone so Disney's record for the highest box office in a calendar year had been crushed rushed by Disney itself so Disney crossed the ten billion dollars threshold this weekend. Beating two thousand sixteen seven point six billion dollars and just to give you a little perspective here. That ten billion doesn't even count the Fox box office hall. And if you add that in Disney's total worldwide box office in two thousand nineteen amounts to eleven point nine four billion and keep in mind star wars. The rise of Skywalker has not even hit theaters yet so they're making a ton of money and they're making a ton of money on you. Know not original films on the continuations of Franchises and sequels the reimagining of old properties. So even though it is is very exciting to see some different titles especially a super original movie like let's say knives out and also something like Queen and slim in the mix. The box office is being dominated by movies. Like the vendors endgame lying can captain Marvel Toy story four Aladdin and now frozen too and soon to be Star Wars. Yeah but you and I have this battle all the time. It's business versus art this business. Clearly they know what they're doing if they're breaking the records and look they're gonNA factor in the Fox stuff which I think's GonNa be another one point five billion dollars in total cash so that's great but what do you expect. They own sixty percent of the market so breaking the record doesn't seem like I don't know if it seems that big of a deal because as you acquire more and more property in you acquire more and more of the of the screenings in the theaters. Of course you're GonNa have more opportunity to break these records but overall right now I'm okay with because they're producing quality product. The problem comes comes later down the road if the theaters are being inundated with they're not so quality product and other films aren't being allowed to bust out and take those screens and get seen. That's where the concern among people for right now clearly they're making good money and they're satisfying viewers demands for good fun entertainment and interesting entertainment. So you have any concern Silas with Disney eaten up much of the market. No because I think that people will go to see what they WANNA see. I get that frozen is is sort of a force of nature churn. Disney is a force of nature at this point and there are certain movies that they're gonNA put out and even if they're not excellent films are GonNa make a ton of money and that's fine like I. It's it's it's fine to have that kind of entertainment i. I'm just glad that people are coming out for things that they may never have heard of before. I don't even necessarily think they'd did like sequels versus originals. Are The problem I I would happily see. A sequel. The knives out I feel like more ben one long mysteries would be awesome to see I think what's awesome about about it. Is that people are hearing. Here's something I don't associate with. I heard it's really good. I want to check it out that. That's the positive awesome. Yeah that that really excites me. And I hate jumping from the positive to the negative but we can't conclude this box office conversation without bringing Playmobil. And right now because Oh no what happened with that movie. So playmobil is an St X.. Release and it is. What is the record here? So Oh had something like six hundred sixty thousand dollars three days from over two thousand theaters and Oh God a two hundred eighty two dollars per theater theater Average in that right there makes it the third worst opening average ever for a film opening in two thousand or more locations. I mean I don't know Louis that I read it is part of the problem was that S. T. X.. Kind of just gave up. I don't think I saw any marketing for this. And I know I am not the target audience for playmobil movie. But as someone who exists in this bubble and also someone who watches a good deal of TV you would think seen a plane will be on TV spot at some point. I have a sister-in-law who loves loves. Playmobil has a has an amazing mobile collection. I don't think she was aware this movie was coming out. Yeah I I was wondering about when these things happen with automation in certain studios like is this like the producers where they purposely put this thing out and no it's terrible they've got to take a loss but the recoup the insurance so they can keep going like they know like there's so many weird animated films that come out and get barely any publicity if they're not from a massive studio and then rarely do well. You're like well. Why did you sink all all this money because an Ma phil takes so much time? This is a different situation. And I believe this breakdown that I have in my notes might have come from boxoffice Mo Jo and I think that they had written S. T. X. picked it up for domestic distribution after global road filed for bankruptcy in two thousand eight. So we don't really know how much they paid for it but on top of that apparently S. t. x. x is emphasizing the use of variable pricing for the film which includes a five dollar a ticket experiment to encourage and incentivize audiences. Audience is to see the film while allowing theaters begin to explore value pricing for a first run movie. Welcome at work if you're not advertising incorrectly if people don't even know about early in this case as long as it didn't work yeah so I wanna know what was the actual logic in this picking it up and putting in no effort in marketing. The movie how did you expect it to do well. And how can you use that variable pricing acing and get legitimate results. If you don't put the same amount of a marketing and awareness behind the Phil I don't even know what it's about even know who who voices any of the characters is famous the voice characteristic. Obviously we're doing voiceovers very aware of animated stuff that comes out but I do remember. I mean back when when I did more of a daily newspaper like I remember covering this movie when it was first announced years and years ago as the Lego movie was in development it was oh and play mobiles doing their own version and it kind of felt like when Lego movie hit that. Oh well they're gonNA fast track mobile because that that could easily be just like the legal right right well. The voice cast included some familiar names. We had and you Taylor. Joy Gabriel Bateman. Who was just in child's play? Jim Gaffe again again. And then we also had Meghan trainor Adam Lambert Keenan Thompson and Daniel Radcliffe interesting. Yeah so That that came mm-hmm and went. Yeah we're probably not gonNA hear much about that in the near future and now I just just just because no one else hands on a five five dollars pricing given how much as spent maybe they spent the money to buy it for the sake of experiment with that. I don't know I mean. At least this has had a pretty good year despite I mean like they had the hospitals and everything in the year and hustlers. Yeah so like to pre-bus the upside this year. Yeah it was early this year. That's messing with my head right now. Oh I can't handle it all right. Let's go into one of our really big topics of the day. The Golden Holden Globe nominations. So there is a lot to cover here. We're going to go a category by category and focus particularly on the best motion picture categories director director. And we're going to hit all the acting categories if we miss anything. Don't worry we're going to cover it on collider. FDIC this week but just to give you guys a little bit of a picture of what happened. Marriage story got six nominations. Once upon a time in Hollywood got five and so did the Irishman let us go category by category. Now kicking kicking it off with best motion picture. Drama the nominees. There are nineteen seventeen. The Irishman joker marriage story. And the two popes. What say you guys? Anything surprise you in this one surprise the two publishers. One of these quiet little engines. That could that. No no one's dominating the anybody for actor nobody's dominating for director and stuff but for some reason. It's and it's one of these Netflix as well. That keeps pushing and pushing and pushing but gets into these best picture conversations. I find to be fascinating. I'm happy. Nineteen seventeen is there. I think that should win best picture. So maybe it'll start that process anything surprise Asia unless stylists so. I haven't seen two popes. I've seen everything else in of that list. I would pick Irishman. I loved the Irishman. I think I would probably really pick Irishman to. I mean of the list. We we all have this conversation. All the time where the Golden Globes aren't necessarily predictors of. What's going to get nominated but it is nice to the? Have it come right around this time of year when you could start to put everything into focus a little more. And if I look at this list to that I think are going to get bumped off the best picture nomination list are probably two popes at this point and I still don't quite know what to make of joker I feel so confident about joker in the best actor category. But I'm I'm not quite sure what to make of it elsewhere. We're GONNA get to more when we talk about best director but I am not surprised at all to see it pop up here for the Golden Globes especially especially when you've got the drama and then the comedy that really changes the game and it makes it an impossible one to want. As far as predicting Oscars go a little women. Would little women have qualified for the drama category. Or is it the musical comedy category. And I am Ed. I imagine that would have been dropped right so to me. That's the big snub in my opinion. Yeah I think it'll woman is a fantastic movie for two hours twenty minutes to keep my attention for God sakes about this story. I was brilliant very well directed by Greta. Gerwig like I said if you like she she took a leap here as a director. And a not have this even nominated and only one nomination from the entire film is ridiculous would have been drama. Because search ronin acting in Nomination is in the drama category. I mean that's one I think that's one of the biggest snubs across the board. You don't quite know why this would be but it did only get one nomination Asian and not to jump around here but when you look at the best director category we we all well know that the Globes have a problem when it comes to nominating female directors. especially if you're Natalie Portman urban sort of took them to task in presenting awards and said like. Here's the all-male nominees. Yeah this is the thing that I brought this up with Perry off to Mike and Before we start the show I think the direction category Nass to be expanded to ten now is my personal opinion. I think if we could do with pictures that we can't do it with with best directors all these women got completely shut out from the stuff. What you've got little pedro motive are wasn't in this thing? Clint Eastwood is in Greta. gerwig innocent in this thing Josh benef- for Uncut gems wait. Let's just move on and we'll cover the best director. One writes the nominations for best director at the Golden Globes. Are Bong Jun Ho for parasite we have Sam Mendes for nineteen seventeen. Todd Phillips for joker. Martin Scorsese see for the Irishman and Quentin Tarantino for once upon a time in Hollywood. I look at that list and I think most of them are deserving absolutely Lulu so there's that side of it but I also think that Greta Gerwig should be on this show. It's not like we have a lack of female directors that are worthy of the nomination. Either it's like you have her. You've Marielle Heller. For Beautiful Day in the neighborhood you have Lawrence Ghaffari for Hustler is. It's like there's options out there and and who do we and the farewell to yeah the farewells. Where are for the farewell? Await the category. That you're gonNA tell me okay. I'll let you although he does like. I've said it already. Just think these best arts category needs to be expanded to ten Oscars as well enough. There are too many incredible directors. And if we're going to open the door the war for more diversity directing side both because of race and because of gender than we have to be nominated more people because they're going to get more opportunities. Look look at look at the list. It's is it all except for a bunch I think it's a white guys and he does ironic the guy I'd kick off his Tarantino. I thought it was a well directed film. But there's nothing. He didn't the film that he had done in China other films or another or eight of the field so to me. I wasn't like wowed by his direction. It was a good movie but I kicked him off absolutely for somebody else that could get a shot shot at this thing and I think the Golden Globes niece has some explanation here too because we look at the TV side. When the watchman a black lead show didn't get anything it's it's a little frustrating to see this happening over and over again it was supposed to be a global Hollywood? Foreign Press Crab. Come on step up to the plates you know I. It frustrates me. Overall is the second second highest awards ceremony. We get every year. I think it's even interesting to divorce it from from racer gender and just say like well obviously once uh-huh once upon a time in Hollywood is a writer director that is building a story in tandem with one. Another one thousand. Nine hundred seventeen is very stylish way of making a movie. The the creativity should be more diverse. And I think ten ten is exactly fits that like there's a lot of I mean I was sort of looking back on knives out and thinking like I love nights out. This is a really enjoyable movie. I love the mystery but there's a lot of stuff in that movie that I think he'd take for granted whereas direction for example the first time you we see a flashback. You need to convince the audience that this flashback is something that happened. As opposed to someone's vision of something that happens without explicitly lucidly saying that and the movie accomplishes that and it's one of those little things that you don't you look in nineteen seventeen. Oh well obviously this is. This is tremendous directing because look at everything that had to go to make this work. But there's all kinds of stuff that goes in directing that's like little things beyond that it's very true. I mean whenever I look look at a category like that and you know even when I pick my own choices for the critics choice awards. I always like to think first and foremost could anybody else have directed this movie. We'll be this way and when I think about that there are a couple of names on this list that I would probably give the boot. I wasn't the biggest fan of once upon the time in Hollywood overall I didn't love it as much as I've loved a lot of his other words. So maybe Tarantino would be off the list but the fact that the SAFDIE brothers are not on this. I mean uncut cut gems is the definition of what I just expressed a movie. That could not have been made the same way by anybody else. But I also believe Adam sandlers and on this list either. Yeah he's he's not on it. So maybe it's just like a thing where Uncut gems was not as well received as it is amongst us in the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Asian I think it's a shame that uncut gems didn't come out a little earlier because I I just saw it this weekend and I had been told over and over like this is a great movie. This is a great movie and every time I looked at it I kind of like I see where this is going and you and you're like oh no I didn't at all. Aw and I think the movie needed need. It needs to have that with with audiences because you can say. Oh you're you're not gonNa see where this is going. There's only so much you can actually convince someone. That's the say the same thing. Also maybe about the release stayed up something like a Richard Jewel or or a little women for that matter. Maybe maybe maybe release date is a factor here. You look like you have more to add Latifi right. Do they separate the directors between comedy and drama. No no it's one another thing here that When it comes to screenplay you know how we have adapted and original and the Oscars they have one onscreen play category? So that's why again. This isn't a good way to necessarily predict what's going to get an Oscar. Did win last year old goats and then won the Oscar. So it's shocking well. Oh I mean really when you're taught like especially when you're talking about best picture when here you have the field so spread out like that I mean you know you're bound to have some crossovers. It's like you if like the pool. Is this big and you have that many films to work with them. They select that many. Maybe you're you're bound to have crossover not only here but in all the guild nominations I I really. I don't look at this list and I don't then look at the winds. The reason why the winds matter for me actually is I do think that Golden Globe night winds ends of being part of the marketing campaign. Someone's Oscar campaign when they get up there and they deliver a powerful meaningful speech. I don't necessarily think somebody out there thinking well so now I'm going to vote for you because you had a good speech but it's more a matter of that person making sure that they're on voters minds. It doesn't necessarily affect how the voter feels about the quality quality of their work in their film. But it's all about keeping like your name in the movies name in everybody's conscience so when they're sitting there filling out their ballots. You're the first one they think of all right. Let's move onto the best musical or comedy category. Where we have dolemite is my name Joe Rabbit knives out? Once upon the time in Hollywood and rocket man I will say the one that excited me most on this list because it is fresh on. My mind is rocket man. We did that collider FIC screening at arclight. Hollywood the other night and I hadn't revisited it since May when it first came out I watched it I watched wants to prep for the Q.. And A. After after and then I watched it again. I sat through the movie and I don't know if I fully appreciated that the first time around. Maybe I just needed a fine. My footing as far as the fantasy elements go but the second time around. I'm looking at that. And you know that's another one that the directing it is kind of next level when you think about them pulling the reality elements in the fantasy elements together so well and the scene transitions in. That movie are so so well crafted so I was happy to see this. GotTa love I find this to be ironic. Because Dexter Fletcher stepped in took over for Singapore. RHAPSODY and now he gets to fully do stuff with rocket man. I loved it the first time I saw it loved it next two times I saw. It is an incredible film. That is getting absolutely no buzz overall for best picture or for best director Orienteer- negative best actor and I think it's miles better than Bohemian rhapsody in my opinion because and I think what makes me and rhapsody is extra Fletcher's contributions to the film. which is what he did fully with rocket man so I think people are Queen fans are getting a little muddled in their heads about what's good? What's and I think for me personally? Rock man is much more honest exploration and that takes advantage of the medium so well better than Bohemian Siemian wraps that he did which I think copped out on a number of occasions with Freddie Mercury story even though that last scene is incredible when they redo live aid. I think there's more more and rocket man free to hold on to discover and explore and use the film medium. So well how you feel about this category Silas. I'm not the biggest rocket man and fan. I I do think of any of the words that I would give it. A turn. Edgerton is is just like he's very very good and the fact that he's actually performing and convincingly performing like it is fantastic. I definitely like it more than human. RHAPSODY I also I love Eddie. The Eagle which was turned out of my favorite movies twenty fifty it was like under the radar. Like why is Hillary. Watch Eddie the EAGLE A A lot. I'm kind of excited now. Dexter Fletcher has like had some projects where people are like. Oh Wow this is a this is a name to watch. I really am excited about what he does now. Yeah and I want to give credit back because I was giving them crap earlier. I like to give credit to goes for nominee DOLEMITE is. My name is a fantastically fun film. Eddie won't smell or nomination. Wesley won't either. That's unfortunate but the film overall at least get recognized. This way is a positive. I think the the main things missing from this category at a glance comes to me is is definitely A while we're talking about little women and the other category. I wonder where where bombshell would bombshell bombshell would have been in the drama category. Actually actually and I'm I'm a little surprised to have that knocked out but are you surprised by cats. Not even being. I think this is this. This is the sign nine that even though there was some like little bit of hope left that cats could have been real Oscar contender. I'm pretty sure the fact that they didn't go for in the sign that it's not going to be the case. There is one predictor that I would I would buy into now. That's US out except for song which I think it is on the The Golden Globes for all right. Let's keep going down. These categories stories here so we can hit most of them Best performance by an actress in a motion picture drama. So we've got renee L. Wagga for Judy. Of course. Charlene Darren for bombshell sir. Sha Ronin for little women. Cynthia revolt for Harriet and Scarlett Johansson for marriage story. What say you about this category to lose in my opinion even though there's there's been a lot of buzz recently for her? I think it's just like this. Quiet acceptance is going to happen like with Frances mcdormand dormant. We knew be three billboards. No problem I feel this way about Zellwegger with Judy. I don't know of anybody can come in there but I'm happy that Cynthia got nominated for Harriet. That's that's I mean that's fantastic. You're really excited about that. I mean what are the other ones that that jumps out that keeping Lupita and Yang in us is such a creepy like a performance. That has I have come back to throughout the year. I think all around the people category great year probably really right about judy. The only thing I'm worried about is I feel like Judy. Is this year's Standing Ali. Oh I really love Standing Ali. Fortresses princes were so good in that and just Kinda got ignored will stand and Ali didn't have the same fanfare during its release and I think they positioned to the release of Judy and the debut. Buick Judy on the festival circuit. Very very well I think they basically kicked off their run with all the noise in the world and you know it might feel like it's just coasting on that right now but wait wait for it. I mean come the beginning of January. They're going to be making all that noise all over again and thinks she's in good shape to win but it does feel like it's that perfect like this is a very very very good dramatic performance but the characters also performing which is also really cool and there's a transformative element which is always like something for awards. Um So yeah I can see I can see playing it's like it's like Lincoln day-to-day Lewis is Great Lincoln. The film itself. Maybe not as good. But he's good. I feel really come on Lincoln. I thought it was kind of boring during the first time and now I am totally. I need to Rewatch Lincoln because I I was originally with you on that. It wasn't my favorite all right. Let's add in some of the best performances by an actress in a musical or comedy just to see the whole group together right now. The list includes Aquafina in the farewell. Beanie Feldstein from book smart onto armies from knives out Emma Thompson in late night and Caitlyn shut in Where'd you go Bernadette? There's always that random one isn't that like what was the. What was it like the tourist and like some weird stuff like they didn't the what's the Robert Downey? Junior won that one year. The what are they to judge the judge not to be really cynical about it but there is sort of the reputation at the Hollywood. Foreign press invites the actors. They WANNA hang out. So that's that's probably the most random one I see on the list and I would say so. AQUAFINA is in my prediction list for the Adamy Award. So I'm just excluding her from this comment for that reason but I'm very very very excited to see auditor arms beanie Feldstein Emma Thompson on this list because those are three names that I don't think are going to get nearly enough recognition Russian other than the Golden Globes which is a shame but it's also a sign that we have many many good performances this year. Yeah I mean those are all I think AH movies. I've seen more recently in trying to catch up but like some really strong. I mean it's sort of like look looking thing thing about judy. The the the physically becoming someone else's always something that like helps win awards and those are those are performances that like still playing a different from person there's still convincingly play another character but there's not the physical transformation side. Yeah I mean I I did not like late night I thought it was I. I was hoping to like it. I didn't I is good in the film. Certainly I think cops out the last forty five minutes of the movie but I would throw caitlyn diva in over Vini Feldstein in my personal opinion. I think she's a fantastic actor. I liked more of what she was doing. And Book Smart then Beanie but just by a hair so I find this interesting interesting how you choose between the two because they have interesting stories within the narrative of the film. I just like Caitlyn's a little bit more than beans. That's all so but you know it's it's good to see that film getting love because a lot of people hurt. That didn't make a lot more capable of picking between the two were. All I wanted was to see book smart get a Little Recognition Award circuit. I don't care who it went to but I would have been happy but really I mean that's another thing is living wild for best director that an exceptional it's an exceptional film period. But the fact that that's her first feature as director I still can't get over in. That movie is still firmly in my top. Five of the air term directors tender actors. Do you want to add something. Silence was totally agreeing about book smart. It's like it's really re watchable. It has amazing performances. It's it's a really type movie. It's it's exceptionally well-made. That's one sag rolls around and gets an ensemble nomination also like I have seen so many many movies from actors that decide they wanna be directors and I I I the exception I think is the gift I love the gift but but usually they're not very good and there's often a reason that actors will direct movie and then they don't become directors they say l.. That was fun. I'm going to do something else Lee while no. I WanNa see your next movie. Dexter Fletcher was an actor true. There's there's one opposite but it's like you know this here. It's making me think you know rituals and get nominated motherless. Brooklyn isn't getting nominated. I Dunno can go one way or the other. I'm upset about the Richard Jewel stuff. It's like it's IT'S I. I think I think things are happening. Didn't he got support for Kathy Bates. But the only the only thing about Richard and I liked Richard Jewel. I thought it was pretty pretty good. It's just in comparison to some of this other stuff. I understand why it's getting bumped out except for Paul Walter Houser. I think he is so good in that. That's the thing that I worry about because you know I just did the junket and Paul Walter. Houser was so nice and getting me Clinton was like his perform performances. Incredible I think this is the best thing. Clinton directed even past American sniper to the letters from Jim. I think this is the most heartfelt films directed in quite some time and yet people and I think it's a little bit political liberals are looking at this going. Oh this seems like a right wing movie. I don't think I want to go see it and I think it's getting lost the shuffle because of that and I think that's unfair because the damn good movies it's frustrating see but this is the best films frustrates forbid kind of frustration though because this is the time of year when we get to celebrate all the things or super super passionate about and if there's not enough space in these awards ceremonies to accommodate everything it means. We got a good chunk of films this year. Very that all right. Let's do the two best performance by an actor in a motion picture. Category starting with drama. I one on that list is Christian. Bale for Ford. V Ferrari Joaquin Phoenix for Joker Antonio Banderas for painting glory. Then we have Jonathan Pryce for the two popes and Adam driver in a marriage story enrolling right into the comedy section here we in order to Capri for once upon a time in Hollywood Eddie Murphy for Dolemite is my name Daniel Craig for knives out Taryn Edgerton for rocket men and Roman Griffin Davis for Joe Joe Ravitz I mean you could hear inflection right there which one makes me most excited. I'm just I it's one of those situations where I don't think he's going to be in the best actor category and I think he is such a strong anchor for that movie so Roman Griffin Davis getting the getting. The attention he deserves is wonderful but certain ceremonies do have awards for young up and coming actors and I think he is is going to dominate a lot of those. Yeah what do you what do you think about this pool of ten names here. I think that's a pretty incredible. I mean that that actually of everything we've talked about is one one of the most evenly matched. I am not the biggest joker fan but if Joaquin Phoenix won for best performance. I can't argue with that. He's very very good. Would I would agree with that. He is very very good. I think that award is either going to. I think it's probably going to be him at this point or Eddie Murphy. Also like I just feel like Eddie's possible for a for a golden no for a Golden Globe I also I like I. I guess you guys don't like as much once upon on a time in Hollywood is probably my favorite movie of the year. I think is fantastic in it. I probably would not select him from this category. Yeah just because there is sort of an attitude sometimes in my mind like we know. You're a really good actor like you don't need this like oh not that. We don't know somebody like Eddie Murphy is but it would be nice to bring Eddie Murphy back into the spotlight where he hasn't been for awhile. He's still pretty locked in my Oscar predictions the one obvious omission. Here is a Robert Deniro. Narrow the Irishman. Well what happened because it's not like the overlooked the Irishman general and just didn't include Robert Deniro especially especially and Pacino got nominee. That's insane to me also. Yeah I mean I don't know what it was. I mean carried the movie for the although moves about if anything would think what would happen in this scenario like that is that passion Pacino could run the risk of cancelling each other out of someone decides to only vote for one or two like why was to near from the situation the other Leviathan. Honey boy should've been nominated and also and once again Paul Trouser here. We go again. You Kick Jonathan Pryce right on out of there I absolutely slide house probably would have been supporting for honey boy. That's where he would have he would have popped up but I still think that would've been a junior. Don't don't get me started on. Calvin Kevin Harrison congestive should be in this thing like come on. I have had his name all over like every list. I've had to come up with and whether it's for waves or for loose really. We should be all over all of the awards conversation so this year and I don't know I feel like that's getting overlooked. Maybe because it debuted at Sundance mainly because that hit theaters in the middle of the year. But the other one that really upsets me that goes in the NEON Earlier release category is wild rose whereas wild rose. How is that not all over for the place especially for saw? I think it's not for song here too and that is so yeah. It's it's not in here that that I think if that winds up happening at the Oscars would be one one of the most upsetting snubs to me and sadly. I think that song could be like I don't know this St Wor sing-sing Twenty sixteen to be such a bummer. I'm happy their bail. Got Nominated though. I think he's incredible enforces Ferrari and that's the conversation to me. Those are the two guys from me that are the back and forth is walking Phoenix and Christian Eh. Deniro not getting nominated I get it but like those are the two guys that I wanted to see what happens all the way to the end because I think that's that's so much I do have one question for you guys. We do have to move on because we have to really cool trailers to talk about but the other category I wanted to bring up was the animated category I don't think we have a graphic for this this one but there's one interesting little thing here because that list includes frozen to how to train your dragon. The hidden world missing link toy story four and the Lion King King. So wh what. Where do we land with this? What is the official definition of Lion? King is it an animated movie or is it not. I guess it depends on the organization. They think it's an animated movie. Not Whether Disney animated movie or not but certainly the organization has to make that decision so clearly they think it is. I don't think it is in any way shape or form. The other unusual thing in terms of like an Organi organization to finding a movie in the farewell is considered a foreign film. Roy Air. It's not elsewhere so so I don't know but I found it a little surprising when I was scrolling through that list because right now in in terms of late goal derby predictions. I'm thinking the Lion King could be up for best visual effects that can't really equal animated. So what's going on here where we stand silas. I am personally of the opinion that like take the end result of what you wanted to be is how it should be defined so in that sense because lion king is trying to look like a live action movie. It's a live action. Yup Yep and great points I I I can see the argument for either side. I tend to roll my eyes. Sometimes when people say I love the live Action Lion King and somebody like well technically. It's an an animated film and there's a weird argument where like you're taking the attention away from animators who worked really hard and it's always one of those like really because like like animators also worked on this other movie it's not like we're we're naming them it it. It just feels like something people like to complain about that being said I really think it should be in the animated film category. Just because that's that's something like animation doesn't have a lot of that there's not a ton of space for animated films to be celebrated in the bigger award season so if you start taking the next avatar be an animated film right point. Well the part of the reason. I'm upset that it's in this category is because I was Kinda rooting for abominable little love and Oh the name is escaping. Aping me of a of a lesser known lesser known I believe it's on net flicks. The one with like the hand and the body. Oh my God I can't. It's not yes I haven't seen I haven't I haven't seen it yet. Either but someone flagged it for me for a long time ago and I haven't gotten around to watching it but I know that that one was considered a little bit of a snub here still talking. What about Claus Claus was in credible? I don't think a lot of people watch did not a lot of people that I've been speaking to do. They throw it up in there because watched over the weekend. The Nation is phenomenal. Something I've never seen before and it's incredible stores sweet story great voice over work and no one is talking talking about it. And it's a Netflix film. So I'm shocked. Why was why was every animated movie this year about ice like frozen to house? Abominable Missing Link Arctic. Dogs dogs are dogs. I forgot that even existed all right as much as we want to get to all the categories here we do not not have time but don't worry collider. FCC has you covered on Wednesday so tune in check that out and also something you could watch later today on collider video. It's rula to. Here's here's Promo. Hey guys rally here and let me tell you about rule of to you looking for a star wars fix well rula to is that. Show it drops collider videos main youtube. Channel as well Azzam podcast ones jed eye counsel feed so go over there subscribe. Share it with your friends. It's hosted by myself and Mark Fernandez. We talk everything in the Star Wars Universe with a lot out of deep dives and a lot of conversations. All in you know what to do subscribe. Join US there and rise if you catch rula to today. They're going to have a very special guests on the show. You might know him. His name is Jamie Kosta and he's there to debut apparently the trailer for his Obi Wan Kanobi fan film. which I am? I'm just dying to see so Tune in later today and check that out and just another reminder if you want any of this cool heroes villains stuff use the Promo code talk ten for ten percent off over on Heroes Villains DOT COM great holiday options. I know I already have my eye so my family does a a secret. Santa every every year and I think I got someone this year who I think would really appreciate a heroes and villains I don't know how big I'M GONNA go. I'M GONNA go t shirt or jacket for him but I feel like it could be a good. I hope no one in my family is watching not supposed to give away who we have and now I just cut the field and has given away the gender matters. There's only there's only like A seven of us. I hope you enjoy your clang on shirts. I was GonNa comment on that but then I stopped because then it would've narrowed it down now. I just gave it away away even more all right. We're going to get to these two trailers now to really big trailers drop recently. We got full trailer for wonder woman. One thousand nine thousand four and also the new ghostbusters movies which have called ghostbusters afterlife. All right we've allowed to get into on these two but if you had to pick your favorite of the two which one would it be wonder woman woman as well but just just by a hair. I really liked both of them up. I ah I like ghostbusters. But I'm also not someone like that. Just wasn't my franchise growing up compared to other ones. There's something about just the I don't know like the texture and the feel of it and how quickly I got sucked into that trailer and into that family. That was really impressing me and also just how certain familiar elements from the original films. Just slowly slowly kind of added up until you get to that ending where I don't know I found myself kind of like freaking out by seeing certain elements. Come back as I started a piece piece. Everything thing together as far as how these new characters could be connected to the original ones. I love the fact that one is set in the eighties and one comes from eighties. Property which I think is really funny and This style just suffer the decade. I grew up in his great. I thought one of them is phenomenal. Just fantastic Patty Jenkins really just understanding what to bring bring to a sequel. How different in new to be the writing? Lightning secrets alone was incredible. I love the Maxwell Lord playing like the eighties. Infomercial guy that you grew up watching late at night right. Have you stayed up late watching those crazy things with the vibe of it pulling up the all of that the fashion that they nail but I grew Perry ghostbusters. Thing was a complete shock to me that I enjoyed that trailer. 'cause I was worried it's going to be debacle. I was worth going to feel like no offence to the Palsy. When I didn't like it I thought I was gonNA feel like that but I liked it at set someplace else and this is how you recharge the franchise brings young good young actors? Put it in a place that sounds familiar and then connected only in certain spots to the overall story and you cast someone like Paul Rudd that fits the vibe of the original to carry these kids into Those brilliant I don't think there's a better Lead for some there though then. Carrie coon Paul Rudd Fin Wolf Part McKenna. Grace it's like that list right then and there has me sold but the fact that it's like it taps into that childlike l.. Like wonder of discovery. And you're rediscovering elements from the original films. It's like that that kind of thing is infectious and it works really well for me in the trailer. I don't know if it did work for me. Ah I think the reason is because it's coming so soon after that. Et Commercial Commercial. Great I don't think so. Yeah he went off on like I. I think that this goes posters movies doing so many things right and it's probably probably going to be really really good but there is a point where like it's weird to just like be sold your nostalgia back to you and there's something particularly weird and ghostbusters. Busters were like. Oh the kids in the movie. Don't even have this nostalgia so like the as an audience. We have to have like kids who are learning how important our or nostalgia is i. Don't love that there's room for both though there's room for kids to discover their own things that are going to become their nostalgia but also to be able to appreciate hourly you could look looking at one way or the other there is something you know frustratingly commercial about it where you're being like. It's almost like you're being re fed like regurgitated stuff. I just just have cat vomit on my mind threw up in my router today and it was very upsetting But you can either look at it that way like you're being given back like rinse washed repeated stuff or it's idea. And this is part of the reason why I do really hold tight to things like adaptations and continuations of franchises is some some young moviegoer out. There who might not have had any reason to go back and check out the original ghostbusters. Movie could see a film with people they admire like Fin wolfert McKenna. A grace. See this movie and be like where'd all this come from it and then go back and check out something that they might not have seen before. Or let's say little women. For example. I have actively cavorted all forms of that story my entire life because I thought that story was not for me saw Greta Gerwig movie and now I have downloaded the little women audiobook and years years later when I had no reason otherwise to I'm finally GonNa read it and I think that's the good that comes out of it. I hear what you're saying and I take your point but it's it's not like this film was is a you know like a best picture emotional. It's ghostbusters an and they made a sequel. Because they wanted to keep a franchise going so it's in its bones to want you get to as many people as possible so for it to go this route I like it. I think it's the way they do. Also I ever saw some people pushing back going. There's no New York City. It's Not New York City. Why would you want to set a New York City again? We've done that three times already. There's no need Senate out here in the Wilderness. Because that's what you're trying to do is to bring people out from this area area back into this main of love of the franchise so it makes all the sense of the world to me personally that they're doing it this way because they don't have to be tied to all that stuff with New York City and can create their own narrative. Here all right. Let's go to one of the weird things with ghostbusters I think is so like. There's something sad about seeing like oh we'll hair. Dye is is is very old and unlike something like say say if this was star Trek And and it's it's about the federation the Federation's about exploring about pursuing knowledge. The legacy of the GHOSTBUSTERS is stopping cartoon. Ghosts and I love that ghostbusters. But there's something hard to be like after thirty years that legacy is going to have new people. If there's not a ghost problem it just seems like a fake aac thing to be sad about some ways interesting. No it's a it's a different take on it. I'm curious to see where they go on a second trailer and how much more they show because I do appreciate the mystery and wanting to know more and it's this is a trailer that almost makes me wish they will stop here but I know that's not going to be the case so I just hope their craft in terms of what they reveal in the next one but with wonder woman. I feel like what was exciting me the most about that this was the trailer that debuted at CC CC XP there's was it that's the right order but The Brazil comecon where Stephen Halio right now and all I could picture was that trailer debuting in in front of like a booming crowd that this is the kind of trailer that I think you're GonNa see before the big December releases and it's just GonNa below the theater away. There's something about the way it's cut the music that dialogue the action everything that says to me. This is perfect for big screen trailer. Viewing that's going to get even more people to buy tickets tickets to the movie. I thought it was fantastic. I thought just like the look of it was amazing The time it's been some time since wonder woman came out and it feels like oh it we've been waiting for this. I have a big question for you silence because I feel like you're the best person to go to for something like this. How how do you think Chris Pines character comes back because there's some potential like I dunno like science things mystery of the movie but it sounds like what Pedro Pascal maximum Lord is doing is giving people the thing they want the mask with some terrible price so for wonder woman? That's getting him back. So you think it's GonNa be a fish out of water scenario where like decades later. He's kind of feeling out a new world and that's why the why the art scene happens. I suspect we're not. I suspect we're not going to even know now until some point much later in the movie why he's back. That part of the mystery is wonder woman also got what she really wanted. But what's the price of that will the reverse of it right I. I the fact that he's out of water when she was out of water in the first films a nice change But I think it has to do with Cheetah. I think she knows she finds out about him. mm-hmm uses whatever that thing Max Laura's holding to bring Steve Back to mess with wonder woman and then someone put I forget who tweeted said I. I think they'RE GONNA kill Steve Trevor Off after every movie like Kenny in South Park for wonder woman to laughing on the general slack of other. Jeanne whoever put it up there on because Larry on the order of events you just said though seems very It seems like it's possible to me but usually when something seems so obvious like that it's wrong so maybe it's not going to have said that you didn't see Cheetah. No I liked what I saw of Kristen Wiig. I thought I mean even though it's like even though it's like an eighty bitty moment almond one conversation that the two of them were having together. I thought even just a few lines was very powerful. And I'm like into the character poster of her. I think that they are going to slowly reveal that that character and she might be a good fit for the role I can also see them wanting to see what the reaction of cats is. Silence it. Why does it always always comes back to cats brilliant? I did love so at the very end of the bag. The Art Museum of like like well are different for different people. And that's like a beautiful sentiment for a comic Book Mhm Pop Art. But that doesn't mean it's not art I kind of wondered if the no that's the trash can was a Justice League joke. This is something people have been saying on twitter tonight. Even think about it all that would be terribly. Why stippled Snyder even more Y.? Yeah I mean that's not. Even his his cut still think as as soon as soon as the snyder kind of some form gets released. I think it'll be okay even among hardcore. DC You take it all it's like I don't care how anybody feels about a Justice League. There's someone out there that loves. There's many people out there who do love it. I don't know I just feel like any joke at the expense of another movie in that kind of sense not cool ultimately when Snyder cast her in the damn role in BBS of if she agrees that it's just an extra line to reading eating into that that's not happening. I do have like two wild theories right now. One is either that Maxwell Lord is really sursee because Oh good person that transforms forms people into animals and at some point Cheetah becomes a animal person. Coal the other that I kind of like is like I feel like injustice league. We have time travel. That probably never going to be continued. Bring that back to wonder woman like make. The eighties are jumping off. Point for like have the Justice Society be founded rounded up. But the thing I realized is like if actual Lord is actually involved in global surveillance what if he's trying to find. Superman has recently in nineteen native four landed and is somewhere on earth. I'll take anything that paves the way to more superman the DC film franchise right now. Because I still one man of steel to rile Riley is firmly. Gotten me on that boat and I want it to happen and sadly I want it to happen with Henry cavill which I don't know feels like every passing thing day. The chances are diminishing. That's a thing that's an official collider position. What Steel Gee? I didn't realize how passionate I was about it until I heard it around me so much and I'm like no I really did you care. I want more and the way. He's handled himself through. This whole thing has been nothing but class. The whole time didn't get cut HASHTAG. Did his own thing. Also one last thing. I wonder if Thomas Emma Swain shows up in some form or Martha Wayne shows up in some form in this kind of allude to a Batman. Remember that Batmans GonNa be in the nineties. Possibly that could be something that would be playing around the eighties as well especially Maxwell being a businessman. Why wouldn't he know about Wayne? So all right guys we we have to say goodbye but we just left with a whole bunch of theories about if you agree agree with him or disagree with them hit the comment section below. Share your thoughts and your theories there. We love hearing what you think as well silence Roca thank you so much for being here for this heroes and villains sponsored answered episode of Movie Talk Again that Promo Code for ten percent off is talked. Hey you use that at checkout on HEROES VILLAINS DOT COM. They've got a whole bunch of new lines Out Star Trek Batman Joker and also warriors of Mandala. And we're going to show some of it off on the show all week and I can't wait to see what I can get my hands on all right guys a big big. Thanks to Adam in the booth and to all of you out there for watching today show do not leave it without liking and sharing it and don't go anywhere after you leave. Movie talk but collider live. I believe they have Justin long on the show today. So you're not gonNA WANNA miss that check it out and we will see you tomorrow morning. Bright and early for a brand new movie talk uh-huh.

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RHOA: A Very CHILL Engagement

Watch What Crappens

1:18:12 hr | 1 year ago

RHOA: A Very CHILL Engagement

"Watch what happens would like to think. It's premium sponsors. Just saying okay Christy. Wow where D dougherty Jamie. She has no last name he lets go. I WANNA better with Lords Funder Gypsum Scott With Jessica Trot Savona Noble Nonni. You don't touch the nicky. Morgan ladder are in McNicoll is she. Don't Miss Nutricula Meghan the slayer Taylor Kelly Barlow. When she goes barlow we go? Hi Lo Mecklenburg. You can't have a burger without the Bernie no thing like Alison King. Thank it's Jessica. Dang he makes US Queen Ritchie Dis. Eric Greenwood she only uses her power. For Good God I love that Banana Anderson Higher Than Hi Rez. It's Lauren Peres of Nikila Weber Lisa Wallet. Now that's what I call containment. The Bay Area BETCHA has ads and are super premium Patriot subscribers. Let's take off with Chamula plane. Miss Noel always ready for Nicole. Passer Ready Day Rachel's in the next day you're out mortis. The Lord of the rings were taken the gold with Brenda Silva. She ain't no shrinking violet. Kuchar let's go on a bender there with Lauren. Funder yes we can with Howley Carolinian. And yes we should. With Kerry Bridge would your the Wyndham beneath our wings. Joe Window Samantha. Season Desisto grant the grandmaster. Somebody Tennessee sees of Betsy. MD Let's get racy with Miss Stacy Sheridan out of a can in Anthony Incredible Edible Matthew Sisters and Meena Coochie Coochie. Coo Craft often have been so much sir. Let Your Babich. I been kicked. Hello and welcome to watch a crap in the podcast all that crap on Bravo that we'd just love to watch. I'm Ben Mandelson for the real housewives of kitchen island joining me. He is a hilarious man. It's run carom because of the rose bricks badge rose podcast. What's up Ronnie Binge Mooney? Well how are you doing. And this The countdown to Christmas Slash Hannukah already started. Oh my gosh went doing so great. I love Christmas Hannukah but just Santa Closet Lip elves just very excited for the whole thing I am too. I am making some applesauce ahead of a lot better situation. That's GonNa be happening tomorrow and I went to sprouts and I have never seen so many different types of apples. I mean the Apple Apple world has blown up there. I mean you have the standard Dander like Fujian gala and then get some of the things that are like a little fancier jazz is a jazz apple and then there's like snapdragon apples ause and sugar bees and there was one that was called Lady Alice Apple an there was juicy apple and all these crazy apples had never and I was like that was just the beginning. I'd never seen so many different types of apples and then it's annoying cause it's like well. which do you choose their different shapes and sizes? And I'm like I I WANNA try them all. I wanted to make all all sorts of apples altogether but you can only do so many so holidays. Am I right that that truth. Ain't that just live just so many apples. Apple's you just can't do it all you know what the for as many apples as there are in the world or at sprouts. They're even more watcher. Crap live shows start star Jesse APP alive. Yeah we are the Granny Smith or at least Liz Smith of live shows so we start up again on the seventeenth for the golden crappies which is sold out. So we're really excited. Everyone who is going to be coming to that. If you're looking for a ticket for that if you didn't get a ticket ticket definitely go onto our facebook watch crap ins live and loving it Because a lot of times people have last minute cancellations and stuff like that so go on. They're joined that group and then here are the other shows we have Detroit. We Got Columbus. We got We got one show left in Austin. That's not sold out. We got Houston. We Got Hoover Alabama which is the Birmingham area and Nola and Kansas City Aka Lawrence fucking Kansas. which is really not in Kansas City about You know the region Omaha Salt Lake City home of new housewives. Okay Vancouver British Columbia Orlando Florida Charleston South Carolina Oklahoma City Asbury Park and then three giant shows to end our first six months year de uc San Francisco and Boston. Well huge huge shows there so definitely get your tickets at watch or CRAP INS DOT COM beautiful job ban. Did you like that. The spirit of Lou. Ann took over as as reading the and I was like. I'm going to go with it. I think maybe I'll just always read them as Luan because the fun for me. Yes I loved it. I love doing those live shows. It's crazy having a little time off being just at home of been going to movies just I. I don't know lots of things I can't wait to catch up on movies I My number one movie to see as parasite I cannot wait to see it. So that's that's Oh yeah I I cannot wait until that comes out on. Video could be watching Harris site. I didn't know that somebody made a bio-pic about stop so I'm just like very excited to see it. The parasite is about an old worm. That won't leave the house gang like getting some older worm to pay for the house. You must live in Mutley. This whole I mean really like so. Many of the Oscar contenders could be about Bravo stars knives out. I mean speaks for itself. Alf Star Wars nineteen seventeen nineteen so little women per day so many of our stars nineteen seventy it you know I have to say I hate that preview for nineteen seventeen. Hate it outside of it. I don't even want to go to the movies because I know that they're going to make me watch goddamn preview again. What is it like World War One? Oh It's like Oh we have to save it. Only this troop can save the country and by the way your brothers over that to save two because God forbid you're GonNa Save the country has to be some is brother is over there and then it's a really long previous and then they just so this guy running but he looks like it's like if you asked me to start running and it's just awkward and fumbling and I'm like this poor guy and they made him suit at thirty times and he just has to run for twenty minutes and I just feel bad for the guy you know. I know he's probably at your body. Yeah just looks really. Yeah like talkie and I- i- mallards super allocate I on the flight back from From Seattle I started to I. I watched I started to watch this movie documentary by Peter Jackson of all people that came out last year called some like and they will not be forgotten or their stories will. It's something like that as basically the whole gist of it is that Peter Jackson found all this world war one footage and he used his magic to polarize it and like change the speed of it. So it didn't look like old herky-jerky newsreels looked more realistic. So people have said Oh. It's so amazing. So I turned it on and I'm watching for like fifteen minutes at. It's still like black and white newsreel stuff and all you hear are like they've found like archived voices so this is all like amazing in gray right like we're learning running back like these voices of the soldiers but this is what the entire thing was. It was like some days. We'll have beat jam all beat jam every day if you apple jam. Those your Dad's but other days you had the job. We didn't know adore. We were young young boys. I was fifteen and I said I was eighteen and they had me now so I was there I was in. I was in the war someday. Israel be raining out in the rain all days. It was not so really what it would rain on. Say That's Queen Mum Wrong over us. It was like that like nonstop and I was like I'm sorry fast-forwarded had fast forwarded to the colorized par I watched some of it was cool. I just like I switched over to the ARETHA. Franklin documentary which was much better. Oh my yeah better choice for sure. Are you sure that Peter Jackson direct this episode of Real Housewives of Atlanta. Because that's exactly how this episode headstarts like this is a great old newsreel footage. It's like bump on breach Jam Cynthia is jam her kitchen. My boss you're GONNA be there was shot on a good day. I imagine island but some days. I got to go over to the family room for a belly Q.. MINUTE BUSINESS SIP. Each hams sank. I think it was. Maybe it was obvious alley got sick of it was has checked Hashtag tag bb jam. We're going to revise history of the World War. One soldiers have jam. BJ This this episode was as an extra fifteen minutes longer for no good reason. I guess maybe they fit in some silly newsreel stuff like you said maybe even a an errant French bench narration. This little so crate this episode. Some of the last episode fucking Hilarious and I was cracking up at this beginning. Far this whole time he newsreel footage and well before that even starts. You just hear the French the French thing. It's like yes. Six High Housing House just off the shelf off of. I'll vouch for Madonna's croissants wrong on it's about up on Olson's Liza but I'm but I'm all shows and cards come up to tell us what's going on like an old time movie. There was once a couple in love. And then you see this old time movie. All the women wanted to get married without being called thirsty. Make us to Cynthia working on the ground orally and then and then and a man was okay with a show. There's all this time footage and then it's like Mike. Woodson deals his family asking for the blessing. He's like I just want to. I want to someday. I'M GONNA ask for hand marriage and I just WanNa make sure that that I want WanNa get everyone's blessing and the mom. Just go. Kay who does that. I would like your blessing right in front of her. She's asking he's asking right in for the Cynthia and then of course mouse like you have my blessing. You're up with the wind solar. It's really cool to their. Please help me please. In malls going to open up a mouse cellar where she just keeps versions of herself in a cellar smell multiplicity Mao while I'm out I'm even more lifeless than the first now I multiplied myself by accident saipem seven seller lots of people to Polish glasses. This is now. Money shrunk the male. Oh whoops themselves aims is oh well well. That's a big bowl of cereal. I mean it's irregular-sized but it's still too big bowl. I like to think that Mala believes that she was shrunken but those malfunction shrunken nurse and so she just the same size but she still says that she should. I've been shot him so they just didn't work whereas everyone so pig don't wear the same size male. Oh well look the aunt is normal sized Rick Moranis quits acting forever. He's like that was the most boring movie I've ever been the worst reboot advocates on the male. So then we go. We've got a lot of awkward time cuts to they're telling they're labeling every seen at this time it's like Wednesday now it's it's old timey music still your Yasha Tim. Tim Shut Down two days as before proposal. Yeah so Mike Brings Noel and his two daughters to Salomon brothers. Because I guess maybe Kay jewelers was closed. I personally would recommend jared but you know so he goes to Solomon Brothers to get a ring and so he just there with the girls. It's actually she kinda sweet. He actually like Mike I think he seems like a pretty good guy and his daughter seem sweet and everyone seems to like Mike. I mean I just I feel like when you start with Peter and then you get will. I think I'm just happy knowing can ever be Leon. Leon is obviously the gold standard. But I think Mike is a pretty strong contender. Yeah Mike's Pretty Hot. Not really sure about the whole marrying things you don't live in the same town to marrying. PM You don't live in the same town. But I think I like him okay. I don't know I don't trust eighty man on housewives swabs. I don't trust any new husband. That's fair that's fair and so The girls are like happy for my and Noel Goes. You guys have such a spark mark. That love just radiates off you. There's something about this show. Where like all the kids are barely able to have? You noticed that yes. They put every single child three shock therapy before they put them on Michelle. Did we discuss this or is this something I talked about with Tom. We've talked about it. A million times like how Riley it's Riley There's a scene with Kayla and Riley in the same thing to work for my money. I don't know what an ice two you don't even know where the tree is. I have a job. I don't want a job like Oh Jeez. Yeah like this show. I mean these kids they they are just bored. They're bored they allow thing they ever WanNa do is be on camera. Yeah So this pretty interesting. You seem so Caitlyn's like okay caitlyn is the Ring Lady. She's like okay. Let's get this wrapped up the ring. I mean the scene is totally great but rapid. So let's go over to baby. Talk my favorite. So maybe August polling get Porsche strapped and forces both sessions sufficiently out of control. This baby is going to be bald. Okay let's talk about edges on this show. Can we leave the baby Sam because poor baby. Nineteen Bose I didn't even know it best. But that's what she did say. She loved Bose last week. He's obsessed. This baby has so many bose well as much as porsche loves bows. It doesn't compare to how much dennis loves the tracks it because he has pulled up in his most apologetic tracts. You here's come over and like it. It's like it's more I think because there's more of a purple purple black this this week maybe purple and white. I don't know but he was in. He was in yet another tracksuit but he's not an attractive. I I know and it's it's weird because I thought porsches rings different on her ring machine thing. It's like the Buddhism Buddha assist just the music that follows the sky around wherever he is so. He's over a bunk AF hotdogs to apologize and it's like a personal chef talkable talkable arrangement edible hot dot edible by the way. I fully support the hotdog herbal arrangement. And if someone ever wants to send one I will send you up. Okay if I expand thank you thank you. Your birthday is now covered for next December fourth. Well it it is Hanukkah right now Romney. So you're not off the hook harling you've got eight days of Rondo days of hot dogs national with the matter. But I'm only going to send you seven buns because that's how hot dogs work gaining everybody so so so Dennis comes over and the thing is this. Is that last we all season. Long portions been angry at Dennis Mad and she's been working through it understandably and and she had therapy Dennis last week and you know Porsche has been like okay. I'M GONNA fight for my marriage which is fine but I kind of thought she she would go through a phase of like like reluctant acceptance or you know struggling to to let this man back into her life even though she said yes no. She's like back to normal now. She's like made a mistake. She made him a cake. I don't even know why she just may take a year for the baby and got all dressed all hot and everything for him to come over. Yeah porsches I just you know voice is going to be like that. You know the one who calls you talk to your head off for two and a half hours about how she's sick. I bet she's not gonNA take this anymore. He cheated. That's a last step and then they get back together and you're the asshole forever saying leave him in the first place exactly and even although the producer does ask ask Porsche like have you given Dennis Cookies. And she goes no no no no right. Yeah I think there's been some cookie cookie cookie taking So Dennis is ready for you. True I just think you'd like the the Monday night football team song ready for some football so porsche basically physically. She's going out of town with the other girls with the other girls you know and the baby. The this is the first time we've ever seen the baby's face move when Dennis Holzer. Then she starts kind of like spitting being coming to life which is interesting but then the only holds her for like two minutes and then goes back to eating his lovely steak dinner which every man should get after fucking cheating on you while you're pregnant mant exactly like the thing that he's like feeding the baby and then the baby's like taking the bottle for like a little bit and then he just like basically pulls the bottle out and the baby starts crying and You only gave her like this like a teaspoon of of like formula. What the fuck? Yeah so he's like well we're going to have to upgrade this ring situation By upgrade he needs to give you one back because didn't he take the other one back Monta. He's a monster. Yeah you're right you're right. Yeah but he knows how to keep he knows how to keep Porsche interested. That's for sure because she's like yeah another way back together he wants to put the ring on my finger. That's a big deal. That means we're a family emily. It means that there's drew trusted needs to be rebuilt. It was like okay. Pleased you're depressing me. Poor show like I love you but this is depressing. And we've already got up-market deal within this episode. I know seriously porsche well. At least at least Dennis these tries to act like he is in love with Porsche. You know so so then we go over to Cynthia who is a day before. The proposal and Cynthia's getting a tuna melt with iced coffee like so this way. I'm glad they documented documented this that way she can always remember. Last Day of being single girl with Avocado and Avocado in this. She goes to eat at a place. It's very representative of her story. Line it's called the grind so she's eating Glenn waiting forever so you know. Whoever she's meeting is always late? Who's always say marlow? Marlow is always late. Gave we know personally from this. PODCAST MOLA's Liz. When late ASS? Yeah Yeah people. People don't realize this but was it probably at this point like four or five years ago right but was that it was. It's a long time ago. It was close to when we first started doing it and She was gonna come on the show. I mean it was like not even twenty it was like can our half or so it was crazy friendly. We are like no thanks. What the hell? Yeah I mean listen we love us a marlow but we also so love our time. Sorry Ari our craze always welcome to come back on the show like that's fine but like you know we're not GonNa wait late ninety minutes. Okay tell her three hours earlier you know like you do with your friends your late friends. That's a brush Ashworth fame with Marlowe actually remembering this full circle. I actually want saw marlow in the wild as her. Joey cafe on Santa Monica and sweetser. She was in there and Joe's cafe one of my favorite things to get. There is a tuna melt. Wow that is full. Circle the full circle really boring when you're waiting for your food to come at a restaurant that is you. Draw your finger around a salt and pepper Shaker. It's that circle. That is definitely a Cynthia full circle. One walk around the kitchen island circle. Shoes right now. So she's talking to Yvonne the phone because that's the only place that you've is gonNA shoot now on facetime. I'm going to have a baby every season. Yeah and the other talking Cynthia's really trying to make this thing happen and it's not going to happen. It's not catchy enough. Okay Ashqar tag but snake gate the smart smart good enough not really care about it. So it's like it's barely even a gate eight. You know like you don't have to be a gate if something is like excessive controversy but this is just like a passing interest to Cynthia yes. We're I need clarification. Snake eight snake eight so she has marlow marlow finally gets there Marlowe marlins like. Oh Hey I haven't been to this area yet behind the zoo. There's nothing inherently wrong with being next to zero you but for some reason the way she says it and knowing that Cynthia invited her there it somehow feel soap appropriate. That of course. Let's meet behind the zoos because it's right by had the cellar wine cellar Hashtag Bailey So she's like okay. Well you're okay with sitting out here because it's kind of hot. I guess I'll sweat. They are so they start talking about Kenya coming in with their marching band. Tomorrow's Big Jim pig opening of her. Yes and Cynthia's like well okay. Congratulations umbrellas like well. Besides her interacting at your friend your friend interrupting and Cynthia's like yeah. Can you did make an entrance pat. You have added her so she came and and then Cynthia does this new thing with her new is I have to say also best surgery on Bravo. Not sure if it surgery if it's tape if it's just a a lot of both talks would ever Cynthia's doing. It's the Best Armed Bravo. She looks amazing but she does. This new thing with her is where she just squeeze her is like when she's like. I'm giving you attitude now. So Cynthia just gives her that squint and that was disrespectful me launching my business. Who would do such a thing it? I'm like you would you one hundred percent that Marlo. If you knew anybody with the drum you would have done that. Let's be honest. Yeah I mean it's like I feel. She has done something like that. I'm just trying to remember what it was but I'm pretty sure she has done some ridiculous antics like that before the Yes I am. Cynthia says well my relationship with Kenya's different than yours. And what are you lovers and the music stops and Cynthia just gives her about squint again. Baby squint yeah see this is this is what happens when you have Cynthia Bailey. I wears that you can learn how to squint behind behind the shades. I don't know what I'm saying. I know you would think she'd be squinting less but yeah so she has a new fillers. So they're very like squint went squint. Forward fillers yes. I'm MARLA says Will you said it was different so I thought maybe such well I mean it's different Just like I know that you have a different relationship with Ninian even though you're not telling her off in public doesn't mean that you're not giving you the business behind closed doors and marlins basically her whole thing is that she just were. She just wants to make sure that Kenya not running all over. Cynthia Cynthia's like listen. She knows what time it is child like. I can get it together no matter what you can lay on your end table every night and not worry about that honey. Yeah so Marla says well you know I just worry because we've we've come so far in our friendship she have really. That's why attitude lunch meaning till candy that she had a mutual friend who recorded me downtown's twin square squint. You just tell me. Just tell me first of all you'll know if meany ever releases this recording put. I'm still doubtful of but if she ever records it gets wet. You're going to hear the other person was shocking to so the answer is there. Ask for the evidence since Syria seriously also like it's just like truly the least consequential detective story story of all time trying to figure out who about this recording and then especially when I love talk about a recording when they're being recorded for a reality. TV Show on top of everything. Yes yes and then we get a break. Because it's a very very dramatic seem so we get a break and guess. Did you see this. I was Mesa. Gail Simmons doing a movie preview doing a Bravo movie preview for little women. It's like okay. How many little women's are we gonNA have? K- How many times are you going to remake that movie it's enough okay. Stop with the little women. Second Gail really like gale. Oh my God I love Gilson's but my dear friend Gayle image. How funny someone must have a sense of humor? Having Gail of all people promote little women I and I don't think so bless her. It is so gail like the warmth in this preview is so cal she's like wow they were so transporting. They had graphic Ravi ta I was like Okay and then she tries to cry. She's like I have a daughter so it's definitely something I felt in my heart really Gail L. Little women what was left. I'm anyone called you that poor gas. You only agreed to do the promotion because you thought it was called little pies. Sorry little chicken wings as a different movie Mary. Louise Alcott is the name of an ice cream the name the author of Ben and Jerry's Alcott Dale Louisa May Alcott Alcott. Sorry Mary Louise Mary Louise Parker Alcott. mary-louise Parker has nothing to do with the mary-louise Parker Bond Gale. Okay I'm not making anything. It's also very important scene. Did you record me according now and Marlins like me we now while I'm being recorded my bravo so so marlow starts to cry says okay. Cynthia definitely finally say something. I won't record it Marlins like that's that's awful. That's awful. I ah that you would have that tuna melt so close to my face. It really smells. That's awful awful. Why would you ask them to put tuna? What would you ask him to put Avocado Kado on the grill? Why it's bad enough? Reading Judah while speaking to my face but you also had a grill so it's just just that much more potent really Cynthia. How many bushy thinks you need in one sandwich? Cynthia Oh why would you melt something on top of tuna. Why so Cynthia's like Well I covet snake gate. 'cause because only a snake would do it. I'm like actually snakes. Don't have opposable thumbs so good luck. Were Recorder Yeah exactly. Last time I checked. They're no snakes on the press. Press Corps could literally be any other kind of AD. I'm Herman P snake and I'm here to interview you. I'm just GONNA turn this dictaphone on just one second. Oh God dammit. Another interview ruined. Well fortunately I can crawl my tail to hold this pencil. But but I can't hold a pat because I don't have hands. Can I get them out. High would could someone. Just please press this button Dan. I'm acting sort of like not just a little bit. But we know it's just it's very no one. No one's GonNa help me know Barbara Walters. Oh you're tired okay. I support youth dear but snakes shouldn't be reported by you'd Never Normal Jane Pauley God this is GonNa be today So Cynthia let seem so marlow. Who have we been together that I could even record you and second when if you even talked talked bad about Nina to me and since he was like well that's just it? I don't think I do Hashtag snake. Hashtag be jam. I like. I liked that. Cynthia didn't even consider that. The basic logic of it of lake. I think MARLA recorded me and didn't think oh wait. I haven't been alone with more for months and the Johns I haven't alone were there. I didn't talk about any like why didn't Cynthia dislike. Remember when she had conversations with people one on one like Giovanna Jonah where there was actual footage of her with Vonda needs biggest henchmen. Yes so Cynthia is now confused. And so she squinting and just nodding a lot like she's figured something out but she hasn't so Marla could have turned this into a big fight but she didn't. She was just like I would never do that. So Cynthia's it's like well. In the spirit of positivity you know I was thinking of not inviting you to my baby winds other Hashtag be jam Hash Segregate Gate Hash Wine Gate. I was thinking not inviting you. The HASHTAG wind gate. But I'll invite you. Will you know what speaking of positive energy. What about Anini? Maybe you should pose with needy. So yeah so anyway. So yeah. Of course Marlowe trying to reconcile you. Reconcile Ninian India ongoing and Cynthia's lighten. No Yeah and now canty and todd and they're tiny Venus struck. Oh God so this listen really triggered me so candian todd they show up at like a decrepit old house. Yes and there's like a broken window it's like in the middle of nowhere and we turns out. This is actually the future home of Ole tacos and Tequila. which is the the Mexican Mexican sequel? Too late Yes. So he's like a Taco place. So it's going to be a speakeasy Kinda setup cod got ya Ya exactly Tatas. Just like he's just becoming the worst. I can't stand. His ideas are so basic right there so oh like okay we're at a TACO rest so we're in a house in the middle of suburbia and then there's going to be it's GonNa be a Taco restaurant but then also speakeasy to come on now. Yeah and it has everything that's going to trigger you for sure. It has taught as trust spamming candies many then as todd. Not only spending our money but getting a place that needs five hundred thousands of remodeling and then it even has seen laying out why he does all of this because you know we talk about this all the time about him. Suspending olive candies money. And I'm like I think he's just trying to work but then here we get an explanation. Takes it yes. Yeah because we literally get like first of all candy is not happy about this because apparently they todd got the lease on this place or bought it like seven months ago and hasn't done anything he's like he keeps saying okay. This is what the Interior is going to be and candies like It's been sitting here for six months. Okay and he's like Oh but babe everything says it's going to happen comes through. I haven't had one fumble get like Are we sure about that because I feel like every month every year you have like new crazy ideas and it's like candies ideas that are not fumbles. Yes us and she's like. Yeah but you're kind of missing the point you know like I love working but you've keep you've had a sign another lease you have this. Then you've got an eighteen wheeler Taylor. Whatever the hell that is? He's like Cores Bay and she says well we can't just keep spending money. We don't finish projects he's like stoops. Oh ooh begging your mom for can't be in the store tone small. Yeah I can't. He basically says that todd has felt pressure to make make his own money to prove the world that he doesn't need candy money and that's why that's why he he does this every single season but the thing is that he like. I'm sure he makes money. Of course but so far. We haven't seen todd bead. Like much of an presidio about anything. So yeah I don't know. Alexei runs the restaurants. That does all that stuff. The thing is he's trying to prove that he doesn't need her money money but he's using her money to do all the stuff and not only that we see a clip of Mama Joy like giving you candy and Then he opens a restaurant but it's using the moms image again. Yes fame so you're trying to prove to her mother by using her mother at allow us. Just yeah I just I just kind of feel like. It'd be much more impressive todd. If he were wasn't always if you weren't always trying to kick off some other entrepreneurial thing like just if he was like okay. I'm here with the Candies Corporation and we overseeing this and that and whatever but you know it's like you know I just don't trust people on these shows every single season they've got like a new idea a new thing because always feels like they're just like throwing stuff at the wall and waiting for somebody to stick and doesn't really it doesn't speak to me of like ooh I'm really business savvy person. It's more like I've got a platform. I should capitalize on it. What do I like I like staplers? I'm coming out of my own type stapler. And it's like this is not like authentic to who you are and what your passions are. Yeah I like Stapler Tacos and you know Horn Jazz. But but you have to have a password to get in. Yeah that's why it's like things like Sonia Ed with her toaster oven or fe Dra who has like going to a funeral roll home and then was I had a donkey booty video but also a lawyer like it was like what are you. What what is it? Like I understand it's live it's probably mandated by the producers like. Can you start some things that we have sent me a shoot but it's like it's just like crazy when suddenly they uh-huh and this is what I like to do now. Also yeah so candies like come on. Just get it together like finish one thing and I've been through a recession. You haven't K.. And and he's like recession she's like That's what the world news thing says she goes and he's like he's like what I mean and he starts like shaming her for like preparing for the worst which is what a business person should do. You know it's like it's like he hasn't even heard heard of a recession before and he's like wow you're the one who's normally like. Oh do it could do it but now you got me scared. Almost like you're scared of success and she's like Ha Ha you can't play that with me. Yeah she's like I ab success. And that's let's not like overly you mentioned this before for but let's not overlook the fact that with renovations to oil. Gee I'm sorry well gee breakfast and some other place and Ole Gee that's all gonNa cost six hundred sixty thousand dollars. Yes and she keeps asking she she listens. She's like so what about this project is one hundred thousand and what about this project. Oh Oh better hundred thousand and what about this project just a few hundred thousand dollars. Oh my God go make some money. How about that? Yeah yes seriously Dr Hoover. Yeah so you'll you'll get that five hundred thousand dollars for remodelling note. Yeah but either way she's candy is like I've outlasted a recession and I know how it goes and I'm safer move so like take me out of date so now let's go to Cynthia at her Bailey Bailey's seller she's like last. You have found this a meeting space for the wine cellar and debated room which I guess as a party rental space. I don't know I feel like Cynthia. Every season does something with a large empty room. It's like every single season. There's some other large empty room that needs to be like debuted. Yes but this one's going to have lots of plastic vines in it. Whatever he wind person really needs to to see some plastic ivy vines staple exactly the thing says why like Plastic Ivy? Yeah Oh so. She's going over it with party planner and then Everyone starts to get ready for this party and to seek is now it is twelve oh seven. PM Yeah exactly and then it was like one forty eight PM porsches getting into trying out a yellow outfit but it like shows off too much of her post pregnancy Z.. Pooch and she's like why do we have times dams about like when she got into a tweety bird so then Mike comes in and and he's not dressed for the party at he's just regular cert- his regular t shirt but he hugs Cynthia I and he looks right directly in the camera which is another reason. I don't trust him why I don't know. Oh but it bugs me. He's like Hello Keira. Hello my I love. He's he's a sports caster. He's like used to looking directly into the camera. That's like that's like okay. Okay okay okay okay. I'll get off right now. But then he's wearing a t shirt that says Tequila helps Mike Nice thing to wine cellar. Yes seriously disley hello. Are you promoting the wine cellar or the nascent O.. L. Ole Gangs and candy and toddler. Arriving everybody's what he's basically just arriving and giving them shed like. Oh deletions. What you most expensive bottle? I'm totally by this with my own. Money ha ha ha. Of course. Todd Todd does that and so then candies like now Cynthia. I'm so she keeps coming up different ad and she sees it through and then we see a montage of all of Cynthia's businesses which I'm pretty sure have all disappeared right. We see like the modeling agents. Bailey daily agency. Let me see like the book bags we see the high wear we see. Like I don't know decorative Napkins Napkin. I don't know it's it's just like so many things I'm like what happened. Atkin rings the panic. The belly wind vines now available at the Bailey a seller on the wrong long. I don't know if any of these businesses are still around I would google them recap already and honestly. I don't care but I haven't seen Cynthia. Bailey eyewear because she loves a big aviator which is like the only classes I can wear. Yeah I thought it was funny. That candy was acting as Cynthia as the next judge on Shark tank and I'm like Quite damning now. I'm looking at Cynthia. Bailey eyewear let's see here home. Cynthia Bailey eyewear. Id there is a site for it. Cook Cynthia Bailey. I WEAR DOT COM on. But it doesn't show up under any of the Google shopping. You know when you Google something assist shopping so everyone shows up there. Yes I guess you can only get it from her website so anyway she's paying her hus- Monster. We know that match which. That's good. Little victories. Small Victories Cynthia is. She pays her server bills. Oh wait no I got A. I found the Cynthia Bailey on Cynthia. Bailey eyewear is it's on Google shopping specifically it's in Walmart. Oh Wow oh good for her. Look at us. We're shaming someone for being Walmart like we're Tamra Barney. Look No. She's in Walmart she's She has an aroma third. Wait a second. This is organic Cynthia Bailey. aromatherapy soy scented candles soy's scented has yeah sorry has India Bailey. It's the it's Cynthia or Cindy Bailey. Apparently he has toys scented candles with essential oils row. Soy Santos said that sounds delicious. So wait wait okay okay. This is really okay. I'm sorry I'm down this path here. If you go onto Google shopping you can get a Cynthia Bailey in readdress cardboard cutout life-size. Please oh my God a life size the alley that is only if it squinting no no. She's she's a wait. Wait one last thing. Someone on posh mark is apparently I guess reselling their Cynthia Bailey really glad reading glasses and they put them on a little fern. It's like Cynthia Bailey. Glasses made for ferns. Since I'm looking at Cynthia Bailey shopping to wow walmart. That's really cool Cynthia. Okay take everything back except that I go to the bottom of the website for for eyewear and it says we have amazing partnerships and as the Bill Bailey Agency at the bottom side clicked it and it says error looks like this domain isn't connected to a website site yet so she's paying service she's just you know keeping the businesses open PA- I wear some Walmart. Who the hell am I to say something? No I listen. I'm not. I'm not ashamed that that's like A. That's a huge deal. I mean our shirts are not in Moammar. Rub It in so I okay. Everyone's candle so yes so I said that Campbell so we know that this party at Hashtag Bailey. Wine cellar smells like soy based in plastic tuna and soy actually smoke delicious. At this point it's now turning into a meal also poor sick. Arise Marlowe arrives. avs Merlo sits out. They are out. She's wearing some weird like ice skating. She's kind of wearing designer. Who makes all the wedding dresses? What's what's his name Nub net? I forgot his name but he makes this year. We always tease him. Because he makes like the sheer wedding in cream colored wedding dresses. Oh yeah that guy. Oh God what's his name. He's a Persian dude because he was on. She's on houses sunset. He didn't Nina's thing. Yeah so it looks kind of like Anini wedding dress but anyway so everybody's kind of talking joking around and my kill whispers to Candy's Hey candy stick around. Okay stick around stick around candy stick around like oh pedrosa couture pedram couture had draw. Yes Patrick Yeah so yeah so Canada's like okay so So Cynthia is like a receiving gifts and everything and you need sends is over Some fresh Sushi to go with the soy and then on top of that. There's a card that says I've been a supportive friend today. Won't be any different Blah Blah Blah is basically saying like I I support other women and I'm getting credit right now for being a bigger person right now publicly. And congratulations on the opening of your new business new leaks yes Marleau. Hello makes sure she reads the card out loud read it Oh if you can share the worse you can you share the good too so do me a favor when you read it. Can you read it really closely to this flower. That's on my lapel. Thank you so the house to read it and then she asked her pretend to give a fuck you know 'cause he's reading it to a group of people so she's like an tear she's like the fact that Ni put pen to paper was beyond the aspect of the fact that she's not here because we're fighting over nothing basically well. It Sucks Mike. Okay and turn on Kenya in five four. Yeah so so Cynthia's all choked up and candies even blood on her and Porsche goes. y'All here crying from a car. She's so candy attacks Kenya. She's like hurry up because Mike Hills probably gonNA propose hurry up and get here so then more people come in Kenya comes in and pepped opaque which is fitting because she's a giant stomach ache so she's talking to Cynthia in Canby and she's like listen. We're married now so I wanted invite a real taken so I wanted to buy you dinner. Mike is GONNA be there. Mark is going to be there the suet triple day I. It doesn't issues. I love your Kenya lab so Cynthia shows can you the card from Ninian. She goes well. It takes a fake aac person to apologize but I don't see an apology in there. She has to apologize she she just thinks he'll just let bygones be bygones and Cynthia's already like I think it was from place to throw shade. Funny Be Hilarious spat. It's not the right place time for that. And then she screams at the camera. Here we go. Yeah and then Cynthia gets back to you. The the the real the real priority of the night which is trying to make sake eight of paying child. Who's naked is like what what's that snake? You did a snake come through your gate no snaky. It's you about the secret recording. Oh you mean recording gate no snaky it just keeps saying over and over. I think thank you thank you so the close up on Marlo Nevada. What's That sound effect one into so Kenya is your mom here and Cynthia's like his mom Thomas here in Kenya like Oh all the families here. Well I'm telling you Cynthia. I have a feeling. I think that Mike might propose. My stomach has butterflies replies hence the color of my dress and candy is giving her. This look like ooh candies getting out there. Seen frozen until I cannot stop doing my nieces you will one day. You're going to be alone at home. This she keeps CBS hearing the voice. And it just keeps going fucking thing over at everybody out. There with kids is probably beating the steering wheel right now. Like shut up. It sounds like that part of my one of my favorite eight songs by Howard Howard Jones. He's like your words because if you scared Oh in the New York no okay with everybody's GonNa have some Song Song. We'll go over it later. Yeah I'll play for you later. We could try to limit is but I'M GONNA make everybody car-crazy I've been able to that so anyway. Cynthia's like well. Well if he was going to propose he would've added my mom and she's not here and then we see the mom coming in the French. Walking in it is such a Dick move of Kenya do that like so so so dick and actually when she starts to say like well all of Mike Families here at Candy if I remember correctly candy is seems to realize okay. You're trying to do and candy tries to move the conversation in a different direction and Kenya's like like no. I am going to birth this balloon. I'm GonNa rain on this parade of right now. How so can use a gross person? I don't know how anybody is friends with Kenya. Yeah it was so obnoxious and candy like when Cynthia goes away. Candy is like furious furious. She's like why would you bring that up to her. That is so not cool like and then she tells us she was like. Why would she do that? So you're GonNa thank God you ve honest here too but for you to look Nina's but since Nina can't be here a little proxy so she comes comes over and say just wanted to make sure you got means gift. What a great gesture kick Outta here? Okay you like you have nothing to fucking do on your own. You're pathetic. This is so sad to watch. I know she really needs to just like stopping. Obviously you clearly recorded her like very very obvious so yeah so then. Candy is just like gritting her teeth Kanye and Kim as I should I say something to her. She don't Ju don't say other. She's so angry and and then people more people search arrive and candy is pacing around outside. Because she's just so angry you know and then and then it starts to. We start to. Mike is getting trying to get ready. And getting nervous I'm just saying like clip around the party. Like marlins me and Porsche talking about Dennis. Yes marlow. Yeah marlins talking about Dennis. And she's just is trying to get to get over. Just take take hotdog back just taking back. What's the big deal? And they're talking mission and she's like well we haven't gone to therapy like yeah. I think therapy would be good. Marlow foods thing is just porsche. Just communicate just communicate. He he was fucking someone while she was pregnant seriously asking funding next time. You're pregnant you know that way you'll know serve wrong. You know you know who should communicate. Indicate Marlow when she's running ninety minutes late for our podcast. How about that five years? Never forget I know where it's like suddenly like been over. We're like we haven't talked. And now we said it and now we said we didn't talk about Marlowe being late to our podcast. We didn't talk about how book to be guest when now we said it. Camille grammer Emmer so Cynthia and Mike They're giving their speech to thank everybody for coming and he's like Cynthia Bailey's time everybody so she's like I'm I'm not gonna say that and when say something Find on the wall Mouth just kidding mouth. Don't say anything. Oh I don't get to say anything because I'm so tiny ninety now. I'm trying to make my speech but apparently people can't hear me because I'm so small. Don't step on your your your human-sized this is this is GonNa last for the next five years on this podcast. That's ongoing mouth in Hunkin by Rick Moranis normal sized so I don't WanNa fall into a glass of wine by accident. It is this notion or glass of milk. So there's like Well I'm not going to say does anybody else want to say something. No sent the year event. Why what anybody else want to give a speech at your wife? You fucking weird out. Why would anyone have anything to say about being in a wine cellar like I wanNA thank My Mom My Dad for being such supportive parents that allowed me to get to a place in my life where I could take this afternoon off to Wants to take the MIC. But she's a Kenya. Do you have anything to say in Kenya like No. I'm good. I think that we've come to a silent agreement. And now she knows not to come for me. And that's I sent me a baby girl so even make some stupid toast and then she's like I know them that's been working on this for a long time so congrats even though it's above ground it's not really a seller but So then Mike. Mike gets up there to do it to like he goes. I would like to propose everyone's like Oh chose chose that's Karoo or is it. I don't know I don't know so. He's like sorry sorry okay. Here's the Cynthia's adventures you know. I have to admit when you said you were opening opening a wine bar. I said you don't know what thing about wine. I mean you drink it. Why the hell would you help people open a wine bar where you actually? I have knowledge of said subject the open with any G.'s. Nice toast host at the wine bar you day well. When's India said that? She was opening a wine bar. I said wow that's going to be three strikes and you're out bottom of the ninth. Cynthia loses the game. But guess what in this series she went up with game number two and here she is here Eh. Knock at home with a wine. Cellar are these sports analogies lost on this crowd or the wrong crowd I put dot. Oh daughter comes up. I was like who's Dot I I saw that and I was like Dwight Dwight's here So is your Arafat can't dot no relation to gene. Okay that's a lie gene and I are actually best friends so his daughter comes up. She's like secure doing it wrong. You have to post something like this. It is Champagne Cynthia Bailey Champagne. So it's like what you want me to prop this O.. M. Not a ring. Wow we you are just got a yes even WanNa pop this and the no but the bottle had a question mark on it. Pop the questions. Blassie wow I levels. He's really he's really going. Wow Wow wow. That's that is a top. Ten sportscenter highlight if I ever I saw one. You don't know what that is. No still laughing at this so He's like Cynthia. You're my I love my life my heartbeat. My emotions like You know nothing about wine. Will you accept me for my past. Even though you don't know the difference between a Cabernet Zinfandel you are here for me. And my present present that involves you not understanding the difference between ports and Beaujolais okay so he kneels and the kids are holding lean-to pieces of Amir like the little orphan. Annie Heart that's broken into but then put back together like the parents have one part and she has been part and it says family emily and gather font. No I love. Gather all over housewives and their names are like like a one-sided says Cynthia Noel and the other side says Mike and other Kayla Ella and then the other daughter and they the entire time I was just thinking where did they get that heart. Where did they get? Did they get that custom made. And how much they spend on it for this one moment. Gag I was just thinking. Well thank God that mere comes apart easily just gets a housewives marriage you now you can just take apart very easily. Both can go to the individual homes homes. That's a pre-nup part right there. That's a pre nup. That's that's something that mark would not appreciate. Ah So then everybody you know. So happy for her Blah Blah Blah Blah and my kill 'em the the proposal with. She doesn't have to be thirsty anymore. It's like you're kind of an asshole gay eh Also is happy and she. Then it's like the next day she's at Lake Bailey with Mike and they are are on day one of a very boring engagement and then we go over and was the eva and her children are running around and being kids even sitting there holding up a roll of paper towels which is so eva this season. Yeah Yeah I really am mad. That she's pregnant this season because I felt like I felt felt like her bitch flower blooming after the reunion. I thought we were. I thought we were like entering a great either era and instead of having either being exhausted pregnant said we get even with paper towels paper towel. Yeah probably not. It's probably not even select Desai's like come on and now the meat of the episode Kenyan Mark Together in the car This is kind of awkward and awful. Great a tesla. Fight what we've always been waiting for so Kenya. They're off to their triple eight with like Andy and todd and since the end Mike and mark just looks so bored and so miserable to even be in this car with his wife. I mean the guy really does have just asshole whole face. He has the face and vassal. He just looks like a total asshole and he's got like a great smile and you know he's Co hosted by them life on that smile. Yes yeah it's a good looking guy and probably coasted. Yes and I've been totally on Kenya side even though Kenya's a monster and I can't believe I've been on her side but this guy just seems like such a prick. Well thank you for evening out this playing fields because God she's such a Dick too but first we start. Yeah well. I'm starting to get early starting my Kenya no hatred again early. But she's not at this part. We're just seeing what an asshole. This guy is right. Yeah Yeah so Kenya's like talking about how how Mike proposed to Cynthia and Marcus like. Oh wow she surprised. And she's she's like well and like basically it comes out that she ruined the surprise and Kenya's insisting that she already knew and Marcus so you switch so you snitched. You sold out the guy. That's a big surprise Kenyans like well she knows coming. Ha Ha said it wasn't a surprise is changing the subject. Do you know what I do. I summoned the car. I can tell the car. Come get me and he goes. You can pray tell to come get me New York work. She's like well. It doesn't turn major corners or anything. He's like Oh doesn't turn great one a self driving car. They can't turn great car loser that becomes like his thing for the next five minutes really driving a self driving car. That doesn't turn. I mean look at this idiot does married with self driving car. That doesn't turn my right. Everyone everyone everyone look at this car turning. It's because someone's driving because it doesn't even jerk. Yeah so so evil. And she's like a sports car right and goes. Oh great so you got my child in a car. You're driving fast and yourself driving crate and you're probably speeding because as you said sports car. And she's like I don't speed. You gotTA speeding ticket the other day. Whatever back Yeah Oh? Did you get the speedy. Did you get speeding ticket or was it the self driving guard. They can't even turn around. Look order anyone high five someone high five. And he's like breathing hard. He looks like he's I don't know it's like something's wrong with us guys. This is not this is not a good guy well he he is not a good guy. He's a real Dick. I'm sorry so candy so now everyone's like arriving at the at this restaurant and Todd's being organized to candy because he's like realizing that like he might be running out of money money from her so he's like. Wow you look so beautiful tonight. Your makeup is just amazing. I love it when you do it yourself. Because that's when you're the prettiest you're pretty also you spend less US money so that I can spend more. Wow look at us in white chains and look for both were twins matching. We're twins. It was cute because he was wearing his affect. I can't do as like might be fun to match todd. Now he's annoyed but I think it's so cute. I can't wanted a match him so awesome awesome. I love a couple of it shows up in matching outfits. Bul Well No. It would have been more disgusting if they both chose to match but I like that she just kind of wanted the nagy in that way in a sort of affectionate thing in here. So it's like a so Michael now that it's official. Did you pull out your phone. Start hitting up your xs and being like sorry. And since he's like well someone got a lot of congrats texts from their XS. I did not hear for mine so that was fun. I think that Peter ear and will are both Still trying to repay their bill from cricket wireless they both on there on a family plan together the bar one plan census like yeah. I feel totally different today. I mean I've felt different in the bed. Oh okay so she's like you know what was is weird that Kennedy came in and she said have a feeling he's going to propel us. I mean that's just crazy and candies like before they can really commiserate over this. Can the COMSAT offers end so this swap around the seats for the women's that way they're not sitting across from her husband's Whoa and they're talking about Cynthia now having to plan their plan her wedding. Kenya's like I've already picked out had the privilege then you so they're like. Wow Okay yeah you know. It's not your wedding law. You know yes so so mark is like so Mike. How was the proposal? Were you nervous and Mike. Well I was nervous. You know I was it was really hard trying to not tell her what was happening. And all but I guess that worked out. Yeah I'm so glad that surprise wasn't ruined by anyone anyone specifically at this table. That's really nice. Glad that didn't happen. E Asa Kenya's like well. Why shouldn't I plan the wedding? I'm good at sticking to a budget. Ask Mark Mark. I'm not saying a word on that one loser news or yeah. Yeah so we're going to stick to a budget that she bought a car can't even drive on. Its own with her curves. Well I was just saying how it was so romantic tickets. Michael got on his knees and that was so thought out. How did you propose Marco Ed Callum because she said she wants to do over proposal and so basically leave? The story. Is that like I guess. She was in New York and he was up late working or something like that. She came back. She came to the apartment. I guess he wasn't ready for her her and she surprised him by shirt at the apartment and He ran into the other room. Got The ring and showed it to run said look who's official. Oh now and he what. She woke him up by the way he's like. Well you know she knew I was working and she woke me up so I had to run inside for the ring so romantic. Yeah he didn't even get on his knee or say would you be my wife. You just said look. WHO's official now? Yeah and Kim's like yeah what did you say. So he tells us and then candies like oh so so he didn't even ask you. He just told you and he's like well just ask her about the wedding. How Romantic was that this wedding and she's like best day of my life? Well Second Winning Miss Is USA Candy. Says I think what we all were thinking. Which is I'm pretty shocked at Brooklyn? Didn't make it into Kenya's top two days of her life uh-huh wow wow third place third place finish for Brooklyn. We have to only assume so he. She is just poking poking poking and yeah he's managed by the way well because because here's the thing. This is the way Kenya operates. Mark was coming for her for the the self driving in car that can't turn turn corners so her way of getting back is the lead lead him down in his passive aggressive confrontation about their wedding. Yes yes so. She just keeps going going going crafted like he's an asshole to. I'm not saying her. Being an asshole makes him less of an asshole. Kaci is an asshole. It's like why would you have all all of your friends together just to make your man look stupid. You know what's the fucking point like going after somebody so they're just both terrible and they're basically that couple who invite you out so they can fight in front of you then. Yeah it gets real awkward. I mean it gets real. They're terrible so what about this. I mean I don't know if you guys did premarital marital counseling Cynthia. Well we've both been divorced so I don't know that that would be the worst idea and brain up yeah. She says that that knowing that she's fully going to call out mark the pre-nup situation in like just a minute from that list here in the conversation. which is it's obnoxious? But I thought it was hilarious. I love watching passive aggression on TV. It's like my favorite thing. So candy starts talking about why she got a prenup. She was like look. You know I view it as as like insurance for the marriage. Okay you never wanna use it but things happen in life and so you just have it there and so it's not an issue romance. Whatever I look at as insurance for she has like actually really really great response and take on it and then Kenya immediately goes mark? Didn't WanNa pre-nup so we don't have one carina and he's like well we didn't even talk about a pre map. I mean you really have some revisionist history. They're sick We talked about it and you said you didn't want mine and he was like. Oh okay so we didn't talk about it because of me I mean listen. This is how I work. You even bring up a pre-nup and we're done okay. It's over. I didn't understand his logic in this. He's he's like. Oh well we didn't have a discussion about it but if you did bring it up our relationship would be over Mike. That's probably why you didn't have a discussion about it. You Dick Wad. 'cause she's saying they had a discussion discussion. He said he didn't want one and he saying no. We never even discussed it but if we had I would have dumped you right. But that's most she's saying that we didn't have a discussion. Oh she says she says say they did have a discussion and he didn't want a pre map and he's saying I will discuss that and if we had if we had discussed it we wouldn't even be in the situation because I wouldn't buried you in the first place because if you if you WanNa be with me you're either all the way with me or you're not with me at all and she's like well I. I started off in the industry. I was a corporation since I was seventeen. I'm a self made person. Nephew helped me build something. And he's like I did help you. You build Kenya Moore. It was a fucking mess. Fixed am allocate you. Now you're doing great and then they're like well let me ask you this. Would you give Kenya half of Soka or whatever the name of his restaurant is and he goes you and I told her I said you can have it. I'll build another one on and they're like. WHOA WHOA WHOA? You're on camera. You're on camera. Yeah he's like. Take everything from scratch to do it again. I just wanted to add here. When he says he fixed Kenya? More hair occur. It was a mass announced doing really well which now it is doing really well. I don't know how much he did for it but can use like. Oh he's a dirty player. He's the type to grab dirt off the grammar thrown throat in your face. I was like well. Did he help you or didn't he. You know 'cause he's laughing like way too hard. I think the reason why she said dirty players because I think that was his way of getting on the record that he like helped build Kenya. More hair counts. You can play this game. You met your match this time. I say who you saying that to through Kenyon Yuck to Kenya because now she's trying to do this to him and get all this stuff on camera and he's like okay. Well let's get it on camera that I totally helped you build that business exactly so candies asking mark where you know how like now that there are two years into the relationship. What is Marcie in Kenya? What's his take or whatever and he's like well we're different you know? Kenya likes a little flash. And she's like when you say a little flash though he goes. Let me finish. You're jumping you've got to respect the conversation at any any star saying I don't WANNA BE MR flash. The flash is not real and like I will not take that away from you because not everyone is like flash but I hate to break it to you sir your wife has been on TV for like several years. And if you don't like flash why did you marry a real housewife of Atlanta beauty beauty with hello. She's like well. I don't think it's flash. I'm a self made person and I'd proud of that. You know. Remember that conversation we had about me driving a Bentley before we were married. And he's like yeah. I said let's take care of the house before we get the Bentley. And she's like well. My House is paid for it. So why shouldn't didn't get at Bentley because you're talking about having a child and getting married to some like what the hell you're not built for this. I don't even know that she was ever I. I don't know if I if I take I should say I don't know if I take mark side on this because I I kind of feel like what we're seeing in this in this conversation. And Tesla was he is actually kind of the way she's been describing him like there's been like a little bit of skepticism about while this while it's Kanye. Yeah you never know. She's always doing an angle to make look good but he has been kind of a Dick and condescending and I don't know I think that if she did want to get had a bentley she's allowed to get a Bentley. I think is allowed to. It's just that you're in a marriage like if you're in a marriage with somebody I don't know it just it works I just. I'm not sure I'm not sure if from watching them. I'm not sure if it would go the other way around. I'm not sure if she would be able to tell him not to get a Bentley. Well I don't I think it's that you can tell somebody to do what they're gonNA do. It's just I'm not on anybody's side. I'm just saying she's obviously coming from Ahrq publicly glee and for her to be like. Why would I even have to discuss it with you? Why do you have to have this discussion in public? I guess just the whole thing is bizarre to me. Well Here's the thing is that he is is he. I feel like he really shows his hand. It does next part because he starts saying that he likes people who are real as opposed to people who are flashy he he likes people who are real including meany who is cool when he met her and then he goes. She showed me the ultimate respect. She said Hi mark. Let me introduce you to my husband. And I found that to be the ultimate respect. Ultra odd I'm like wow so like basic manners basic common courtesy. What's and also like knowing that Nina is like Like a he and his wife of that his wife Anini are totally at odds and Anini is so obnoxious to Kenya and that he would like like just like go out of his way to talk about how great Nina's I mean you know I mean like it an ideal world. He would have his wife's back right. But even if you have a situation where it's like look on my on in my own man. I can think what I WANNA think. I feel like out of respect for devoured mark shoes out of respect for my wife I might think okay. I don't think he knew that bad. I think this is between my wife Fanini but I wouldn't be like well means actually great and she show me the ultimate respect that to me is the ultimate disrespect to his own wife. Yes of course. Yeah he's coming back back in like go and get her now. It's like she got one on him and he's going to go back on her and I don't know who brought up meany but they cut out whatever per or maybe just came up right now but it seems so weird to pivot like straightened. Tamimi seems like such an odd turn but yeah maybe you know maybe he is just like fuck you then Menia acne the and so. She's like well. Let me remind you mark when meany said whether she pregnant with a buffalo you got extremely upset because that was your unborn child. She was talking. Yeah can you remember what I told you to be upset. So then by the way he also is like no Nina's nice to me so I'm not going to dog her like you will dog your own wife life. Why do you understand how ridiculous that sounds? So then he's like well you know yeah. I was upset when he called. You said you were going to have to give birth to a Buffalo Obayashi. Tried to apologize and she said you and you didn't text her back. She's like no she did an ha and he's like you said she didn't. She has now she did not and I would would like to remind you. You were highly offended and so was I gotta call my good. Yeah and so mark is like it's it's about respect to how people treat you you and then candy is just sitting there like. Why are you doing this to your wife like you see her face? You see how upset she is. This is Pablo like. Why are you doing this tour? Yeah and yeah candies. Mortified and hill jumps. And he's like well you know I will say always been kind to me but if it affects my girl it affects me you know for example. Cynthia doesn't know anything about wine and so I don't know anything I'm just kidding. It doesn't work in every aspect. Actually I know a lot about why What were we talking talking about it? So then Sanal Kenya's going to give a toast and she's like she stands up to give her toes. which is very extra? You're in a restaurant just like you can tell us from your C.. That's okay you're not at a party and she's like I just WanNa go ahead go ahead good job good job go ahead go ahead pitch up good job just stupid mark. I just want to congratulate this beautiful couple for just being you and it was candy for being that. Ride or Die Fran Wow rider I woulda concept hopefully all you men or ride or die too and by man I mean mainly these two men by these men just really mark that corner hope they ride or die your wife who's standing right here. Yeah she's basically like congratulations to the two couples who are doing it right into mark. WHO's doing incorrectly? But hopefully the he learns from this very passive aggressive speech on gaming gaming and she adds that she goes hopefully. You're doing the brighter. I think your cells gentleman as the women where the crowns. Yeah Oh God I knew it was bad but I didn't know it was this ban. Yup I wonder who else. I'm wondering if we're going to see if the separation the divorce if that happens During the season I'm sure it will because Kenya would not save that for off camera. That is totally Kenya on camera. And I'll watch what happens. Live Andy asked how is going and she's like well it's cordial we're speaking so I guess they separate it so far okay well. That's IT for speaking of cordial time to make a cordial goodbye for the episode. A We hope you guys all have a happy Hannukah today because it is Hannukah and we'll I'll be back tomorrow with some below deck and then on Wednesday on Christmas. We are going to have remarried to medicine on Christmas. I forget what we said emerged medicine or I don't know just go check it out. I think so works for me. Check it out everything. Later this week we have marriage medicine. Orange County reunions begins. They'll be super super fun below deck. Also were doing a bonus that is full of your mailbag questions for mailbag. That'll be for next week. Think because the sleep of top chef. Yeah they're still lot okay. Maybe holidays just chugging along. We're we're barely organized over here. But yeah you know what's coming on the horizon on some day sometime dismissed whenever shutting the hell out now never K. by everybody.

Cynthia Cynthia Mike Kenya Cynthia Bailey Porsche marlow marlow Marlowe Cynthia Cynthia Oh dennis apple Champagne Cynthia Bailey Champ Nina marlins Rick Moranis Joe Window Samantha Todd Todd Bailey Cynthia Noel
662: Where There Is a Will

This American Life

1:03:33 hr | 2 years ago

662: Where There Is a Will

"Support for this American life comes from rocket mortgage by Quicken Loans. Introducing they're all new rate shield approval. If you're in the market to buy a home, Quicken Loans will lock your rate for up to ninety days while you shop to get started go to rocketmortgage dot com slash American and from capitol. One Capital One is reimagining banking by offering accounts with no fees or minimums that can be opened from anywhere in five minutes. Capital one. What's in your wallet Capital One NA my net? Gar. His mom. Does not take. No for an answer that cars Israeli at our carrot. We've in his short stories here on the radio show now. And then if it years ago at cars older brother was in the army serving Lebanon, Israel, had just invaded Lebanon. It was war and sends a credible to us. But the policy of the Israeli army is that if it's at all possible, you go home on we've every two weeks, and I've been on. Close just next door to Israel. That guy says his brother was coming home every month, and then you know, that stopped. He wasn't getting any leave. And my brother didn't come home for almost two months. And he drove my mother grazie. And she decided that she should it. Get my brother back home, you know, any very difficult due to deal with anything during the war because everybody's stereo and crazy, but she decided that she needs to speak to the chief of staff, and she started calling and they the staff is like the head of the army the day day head genera- for the entire army. Yeah. That guy explained her strategy was simple. Just call. The guy's office talk to whoever answered and she would Doke for don't get enough. And she would have something that you could say offended her or may they're angry, and then she asks to speak with debt person superior. She did the same thing with that person. And then that person superior and so on and on and on and on Indian key, founder says speaking to the head generally know, a the fatty Thanh who's one of his most famous. Kind of war heroes. And he said to this in the generate a time. I know that you fighting a war, and I really don't want to waste any of your time. So I really make it simple. My son didn't get to leave from the army for the past two months. I give you twenty four hours to sending back home. If you know what's good for you Huby back, you know, before tomorrow evening, wait, if you know, it's good for you. Yeah. And the guy says I just want to understand MRs scared. Are you reddening me? And she says, yes, I am reading you. And then, you know, I didn't want to put it in the subtext because I know that you busy. So if you know what's good for you. And I you send my son. And he says to MRs Kurt do you know who I am? And he said, yeah. Yeah. You day the war hero. And he said to if you know anything about me is in you know, that I'm not easily scared. So why am I said? Yeah. But I don't think you had many chance to fight with elderly holocaust survivors were five foot tall and weigh eighty two pounds. And I wanna tell you something, and I make it very simple and very quick, you know, after you quit the army, you either go to politics, or, you know, go to the flea market in both cases, you're going to be very exposed in both cases every time. They'll be TV camera around or journalist you have this utterly lady. Sitting in the first roll shouting at you accusing you of any bad things that you might have made a maybe of some bad things that you've never made because I'm a very good liar. And you really don't want that. So and. That stage he hung up the phone interface. The next after noon at cars, brother arrived home. So they put them out of his ranks. Don't get on a helicopter. He had no idea. What was going on nor did anybody else? Use him some family member died or something at guard says and he got his break. He came to shower stepped for sixteen hours, my mother, SOS it. He was okay. And it day after that he went back to LeBron. I should say we cannot confirm the details of this story. Gooding the dialogue between et cars. Mom, and Rafael Eitan this happened over thirty years ago. Icons dead. We got that cars mom. She said share whatever at car says. But there are many stories of that cars, mom doing things like this. There was a time. She threatened a mugger so effectively that he abandoned the idea of mugging or in the middle of the mugging. There's your showdown with the president of Poland that end when the president of Poland finally gave her the passport she demanded as somebody who had been born in Poland that cars the same way in certain situations. So it doesn't threaten that's not who he is just reasons people to death. Case in point a couple of years ago, he and his wife, Sarah, and their then eight year old son web, traveling and they left a backpack on an airplane in the backpack was at cars, ipad, which had all of his sons games on it. You know, if it's months on these games working his way up the levels of the games. Now that was gone that was really messed up about it. And the parent knows what I'm talking about. And the call the airline the airline says no problem when you get to the airport for the return flight, go to awesome found it'll be there. So comes a day the runaway home they get to the airport. This is in Rome. They can't find the lost and found time is getting short. They've got a plane to catch finally a guy at the car rental. Super nice guy offers to take them to it. He's name was Massimo, and he took us to the lost and found place. Whereas it was this really really nasty woman. And I said to you know, you have our bag, and we suppose to take it, and we're gonna fly really really soon. Do I can actually see it and a pointed to the bag, you know, because it was behind her. And she says she needs a letter from the airline saying he was on the same flight as the backpack. I go doesn't have this letter. She said, sir. I'm not going to give you the bag without letter. I'm sorry. But I go to Israel. I never get to see the bag. And she said, you know, that your problem. Somebody who knows that Carl just say wrong live, something deep and powerful kicks in inside him. My wife said to me. Okay. Let's go. So we won't meet deflect and said, no just a moment. And they sit through the woman. Look don't give me the back. But just do this kind of thing these deep, you know, the the outside pocket of it. And see if there are crackers in it with a Hebrew writing on the package of records. And she said, why would you wanna do that? I said I just ask you to do it. And she went to and said, he their curriculum. So sit too so we both agreed that this is my bag. She says. Yeah, this is your bag. So I said to sued you, please give it to me. He said, no, sir. I won't give it to you. Unless you give me this letter. And I said, but you understand my son is he and his game is are you a parent. And she said, yes, I'm at Barron and said to her so think about it like, you know, issue son a head game. He really wanted to and you had to go and confront with the person who'd say, yeah, I know this game is yours, but your son is never going to get it. Just. Because of some kind of technicality. I mean, you're Italian, you know, beat down in, you know, be warranty. Nice leaning give me the bag and she said, no, sir. I'm not going to give you the bag. And you're wasting your time you better go to your flight because you're gonna miss your flight. And let's go she's going to give it to you. And I sit where but don't you understand like, you know, as a human being, you know, will be one day where you die and you look back at your life, and you think about this day. And when you think about this day, you think about this father came with a child, and basically technically you could solve all the problems, but you chose to kind of stick with some kind of technicality. Would that be a nice dying fort to leave the word with? She was beginning to say, sir. I'm not going to give you an, but as she was about to say that Massey. More the guy know from the car renter jumped over the counter. Picked up the bag and she said to him what are you doing? And he said to I can't take it anymore jumped back over the counter, and he gave me the bag and she said to him if you don't get the bag back I'm gonna call airport security and they're going to arrest you, and so I said to him look too good solution. Take the big and Mustang was said to me look at me do as a say run. Is as happened so often that Carswell sheera? Whereas someday somebody's it's going to go nuts on echo or something heard situation when my wife just system just shut up shut up shut up. Now. Don't talk about anymore. Shut up, you know. And and I always listen to my wife, but you know, when it starts I can still be. But at the same time, I think I'm I'm this Essel know just keep arguing doesn't move on. And I really think that you know, that this has to do is we something very kind of prime lose it when I was. Child. You know, my parents were both local survivor Z kind of raised me say, you know, people people are good. But sometimes, you know, they don't get the good, you know. So you have to kind of terrorism things you time, maybe slaps them around. And then then phase Antezana the good. And then they're gonna listen and everything's going to work. Danta program at somebody else who can't help himself. He see something needs to fix an east care of needs to make it right? And then sheer force of will he makes things. Boldly radically. Though is it Harare. If you can't stop yourself WBZ, Chicago. It's this American life. I'm regardless stay with us. Glenn? Loudspeaker? So we start today with the guy who want to overstate this. And it sounds really big when you say this out loud. But I really think it might be the truth a guy who with sheer force of will outta. We changed our politics and created the political world we live in today. Logs at a second man who helped him Zoe chase tells the tale. It's probably helpful in telling this story to remember I second with politics was like before today now different from formal in quaint things used to sound, ladies and gentlemen, the president of the United States. This is President Reagan walking onto the south lawn. It's nineteen Eighty-three April. But apparently a cold day one of the lawmakers looking very Soviet and his big coat and for collar. I wonder what extend to all of you, very warm. Welcome. Something ought to be warm Reagan's in the seventies all Brown suit with the Brown tie. But especially fitting that so many of us from so many different backgrounds. Young and old the working in the retired democrat and Republican should come together for the signing of this landmark legislation social security legislation. Major bipartisan compromise involving raising taxes and cutting spending two things that only go together when it's bipartisan compromise, and now as a special treat, I would like to ask two of our leaders from congress first step forward for a few words speaker of the house of representatives the honorable tip O'Neill. Mr President, Mr vice president, my distinguished colleagues and government. This isn't a happy day, a special treat, the democratic leader the friendship between Ronald Reagan and tip O'Neill, one of the most famous friendships in American politics these days, it's regularly tried it out like a feeble to demonstrate with the good old days where like back when things worked. If you knew anything about speaker of the house tip O'Neill, you know, he was a bipartisan Schmoozer a big money guy took up a lot of space in the room. He invite members from both parties to poker nights and DC using congress for decades. And by the time, he was speaker. He was a living legend type we got along. I had tip and his wife over for dinner. This is Reagan talking to William F, Buckley. Then one day I picked up the paper and rid where he had made a statement about me that was. Pretty harsh and I called him. And I said tip. I thought we had a relationship here where we could do business together. Now, I read in the paper that you said any interrupted me and said, what will buddy that's just politics. He should after six o'clock. We're buddies. We're friends. I did take it that every once in a while when we had a meeting I would visibly set. My watch six o'clock. To be fair O'Neill had been known to call Regan, real Evans or Scrooge truth is their relationship was complicated. They disagreed profoundly about a lot of stuff. But that's the point. It's why people tell each other the story the two were able to come together and talk compromise and pass legislation. Anyway, here we are today. The MS thirteen lover Nancy Pelosi people are mean about each other now in public all the time in particular the president. And of course, people fight back. This is congresswoman Maxine Waters, his not a role model for our children. He is a liar. He's a conman Maxine Waters, a very low q individual never see and Connor lamb lamb this sham right lamb, the sham lamb the sham. Never caught on. You know what I'm talking about? It's different now. I wanna lay out for you one theory of the case as to how we got from there to here we've always had two parties. But we didn't always have two teams like me do now red versus blue versus them each side routinely. Demonize the other side is unamerican you sign up for one issue the wall. The Muller investigation, Colin Kaepernick climate change. You basically sign up for all of them wasn't always Suzy euro sunlight, it's become you could explain what happened in different ways. But I'm gonna argue it was the work of these two guys that got us to this point two guys one quarterbacking the other. And so without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, the first of the two men who created the modern world from Fox News from Republican primaries. Gone by former speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich. Hope I can convey this in a way that you can really feel. If we lose we will be able to look our children, and our grandchildren the face and say, we did every thing we could to save this country. Was a weird nerdy kid growing up people close to him say, he always pictured himself as a historical figure someone who had been the course of American history. Someone who and -ticipant at stories like the one I'm telling you now from his teenage years he thought this way he ran for congress twice in west Georgia lost. And then finally wanna see in the house in nineteen seventy eight with a seventeen seventy eight attitude. There was a revolution on and the country's very existence was at stake. We're fighting a war. Gingrich said back then were for power raise hell, raise hell, all the time. His goal was to retake the house of representatives at the time and impossible dream Republicans had been in the minority for twenty four years people called it the permanent Democratic Congress once Newt finally got there he discovered as heat suspected was a police full of losers with Stockholm syndrome was chummy loosely guys and suits and ties smoking cigars playing poker together. And generally getting along hanging out talking to each other, also, depending on your perspective. It was a corrupt cesspool of bribes and giveaways, definitely hard. Gingrich side Republicans didn't have much power, but they'd go along to get along and occasionally do some deals and most of them had stopped imagining. It could be any other way. And learned most of this story from the great political reporter, Steve Kornacki. He just published a book about this time called the red and the blue the nineteen nineties and the birth of political tribalism. He's also that excited guy at the big board on MSNBC during elections. He explained that Newt arrived in congress determined to turn the police upside down, you didn't want everyone getting along Republicans were never gonna take the majority that way you wanted to fight and the weapon he used was the media his arrival in the house coincides with a historic moment in the house. And that is the first television camera is placed in the chamber in nineteen seventy nine his first year there, and it's it's C-SPAN C-SPAN may not sound exciting to you. But a it's still awesome. And be it's a major change. Now anyone can see for themselves. What's going on in congress? If they want to and people in congress can speak to anyone on the outside. Newton gets it right away. The rest of the house does not there's a lot of opposition to it. Because this is. Club here. But once the cameras there most members, they just kind of ignore it, and they leave at the end of business day, and they go, and they they do whatever it is. They do after business hours to Newt Gingrich here it is. I want people to notice this around the country. I got I noti- now. Yeah, it's Twitter. The gentleman from Georgia. Mr. Gingrich is recognized for sixty minutes. Thank you speaking. I'm gonna pick up Mr. Walker left off in the document entitled what's the matter with the democratic foreign policy by Mr. Frank, re Gorski, okay, not Twitter. Exactly. He's prophecy. Oreo pedantic not a lot of flare somehow someday this country has got to learn to live with revolution. In the third world. It's endemic. It's Ed he starts claiming there's this rule in the house that any at the close of business and any day any member can claim the floor for any reason they want for pretty much any amount of time. They want and called special orders in Gingrich starts claiming these these special order speeches, ten o'clock at night, eleven o'clock at night. It's an empty chamber colleagues are asleep. They're drinking. They're out. They're not they're they're not listening to this. They're never even going to hear about this most of them. But Gingrich knows there are people all across America who got these new cable boxes in their house who are like scanning the dial and seeing what's out there. And some of them are going to pause when they see him in what they're hearing is he's not giving a dry. I speech about. And now if I can direct your attention to subsection three of the agriculture funding. He's giving these grand. Grand speeches about American politics in American identity and the corrupt democrat machine often Gingrich or one of his few allies was explaining how the Democrats were fringy communist radicals, like the whole party, everyone in the party, this more or less, a socialist. It was sort of his version of all Democrats want open borders, but less punchy since communism doesn't strike them. As an independent inexorable force feeding onto tunnel, Terry and personalities and concepts McGovern. Democrats don't fear. It trash America. Indict the president and give the benefit of every doubt to Marxist regimes. That's the standard formula. It is. He is producing what you would now recognize as a cable news show on the floor of the house and he's performing for the camera and he's giving his monologue. He's giving his monologue on the decay of the Democratic Party of the decay of American culture, the promise of a Republican party embraces opportunity responsibility. And all these things and there's an audience it starts to tune in. And. And he knows it. He he gets that. He gets the potential of that before anybody else. Newt believe there was a Republican majority out there because just a decade earlier Richard Nixon had trounced the democratic candidate for president. He wouldn't forty nine out of the fifty states. Clearly, there was an appetite for Republican rule, but Republicans were still a minority in the house people somehow weren't thinking of their Republican votes into one Republican ticket. Would he needed to do was paint? All the Democrats more clearly as the enemy to the voters, and he do that by associating all of them with the candidate who lost to Nixon George McGovern George McGovern would sort of the Bernie Sanders of his day. So lefty, even freaked out a lot of Democrats and seventy two the counterculture antiwar candidate. If Republicans were able in nineteen seventy-two to score that epoch of a landslide running against the Democratic Party of George McGovern in the activists behind him. Newt Gingrich believed that's the key to the Republican party winning everything if you Nash. Nationalize politics, and you make voters everywhere in the country. See in whatever democrat is in their backyard, who's running for whatever office, it is congress or sheriff or state legislature or dogcatcher if you get the voters to see that democrat as no different from George McGovern in the folks around him while you know, how those voters are going to react they're going to go, and they're gonna vote Republican. And so his idea was to make voters across the country judge politics based on what they saw coming out of Washington based on what they saw coming out of the national media based on what they saw on C span were over and over again, Newt brought up McGovern in the late sixties and early seventies. It became a truism with the entire American left from bomb throwers in Chicago to eastern writers to progressive pinstripe supporters of Eugene McCarthy and McGovern the southeast Asia would be fine. Once the US left attacking congressman by congressman. I name congressman Harkin on June. Twenty-sixth nineteen Seventy-nine told the house that the Sandinistas new. More about nurturing democracy than America did quote should the United States feel impelled to meddle once again. Nicaragua. The result this speechifying metoo speaker of the house furious. Remember speaker, the affable muppet tip O'Neill, Newt Gingrich and a couple of the other guys. Gingrich acolytes are talking smack about specific congressman questioning their patriotism on the public record. And they aren't even there to respond that was not done. It was against the gentlemanly code of the house as speaker tip O'Neill controls, the cameras, and he orders them to pan out and show, the empty room that Gingrich and his buddies are addressing Bob Walker Republican from Pennsylvania happens to be speaking, right, then and he takes great umbrage when this happens. But I do want to take note of something. That's evidently happening right now, which is a change of procedure here. Tip o'neill. This will make the guys look petty talking to no one watching it. It's. It's like a surreal Becket play a tiny man at the bottom of the screen gestures wildly from podium as we speaking to a big crowd. But he's surrounded by empty chairs. It is my understanding that as I deliver this special water the evening. Other cameras are panning this chamber demonstrating that there is no one here in the chamber to listen to these remarks that is evidently that the work of a change in the in the pattern of rules around here. It is one more example of how this body is run the kind of arrogance of power that the members are given that kind of of change with absolutely no warning. I see the gentleman from California. Mr Coelho was standing in the back of the chamber just a moment ago. Mr Coelho has talked in recent weeks about shutting off these special waters and not allowing them to even be seen in the countryside. And he stands in the back of the chamber now smiling, I have to I have to feel that perhaps he is getting worried that some of the things that are being said in this. Chamber in these special orders are in fact, influencing people out across the country to think that this body is something less than what the American people think it ought to be lots of C span watchers today understand congressman or putting on a performance. There is always someone in the audience, but it was new back. Then this all sets up a wild showdown between Newt in the speaker tip O'Neill a few days later. Gingrich gets time on the floor. Okay. I have delighted to yield artist English speaker if he wishes to continue this the speaker of the house tip O'Neill 'Skin Grece t- yield. So he can say something does knowing the speaker is gonna yell at him. This time the chambers packed with congressman and reporters both. Here's tip O'Neill, my personal opinion is this you deliberately stood him at well before an empty house and challenge these people, and you challenge their Americanism and its lowest thing that I've ever seen in my thirty two years in congress, Mr Speaker if I may reclaim. My time as insults. Go in the US house circa nineteen Eighty-four this is big. So big Trent Lott Republican from Mississippi standing near the speaker says I move we take the speaker's words down a mood. We take the speaker's words them. This means that would tip O'Neill just said to Gingrich is so offensive so toxic that he wants the wrongness of it officially acknowledged perhaps even struck from the historical record as though it had never been said for five full minutes. Everyone shuffles around clutching their pearls about Newt about the speakers behavior. How do we preserve the dignity of the house? The clerk reads out the offending speech once again, so that the chair can decide what to do about it, my personal opinion is that you deliberately stood in that well before an empty house and challenge these people and you challenge their Americanism. And it is the lowest thing that I have ever seen in my thirty two years in congress. Feels that type of characters ation should not be using too big. This is like saying that was out of line. Don't do that again that was very bad. But it doesn't actually reach the words from this record still. It was an epic showdown. Speaker of the house tip O'Neill being scolded in front of America. Maybe it's hard to understand what a coup this is for younger congressman, but think of him as a producer a producer of his newly formed experimental cable news show on C span. Help expertly produced. This moment was everyone's in the room. The speaker of the house basically promotes Gingrich's late night program. Then this bigger gets called out in front of the whole country. And he looks era Ghent in new Gingrich's at the center of the room like a conductor pointing from one guy to the next guy doing out time as the speaker gets red in the face and yells over the room. Gentleman missed the wave. Gentleman. Missed wocka expressive. Remember that? Boyd a parliamentary inquiry in the stories covered on the nightly news. This is a turning point for Newt Gingrich. He's now the pied piper. And other Republicans star rallying to his causes not long after this episode tip O'Neill retires, and he's replaced by speaker Jim rates Newt season opening to take right down thinks it'll rally the Republicans in the house. It's a battle. They can win right is with cocky and dismissive of the minority party with none of the HALE, buddy. Tip O'Neill warmth. It'll be a branding exercise for the new aggressive Republican party was selling. Here's what happens. He weeds a story in the Washington Post about the new speaker getting fifty cents on the dollar for every one of his books, he selling it's more of a pamphlet than a book, actually. But it's a way to give the congressman back door donations the people buying it. We're like the local Teamsters in his district and supporters rallies. You talk to the papers about this compares, right? Mussalini makes speeches think of it. As though he's standing on his tip toes shouting over the heads of congress to the American people. Draining the swamp that's his intention in again. It's just the idea that here's this clubby elite arrogant institution that the corrupt democrat machine is is powering. And and they are so disdainful of you everyday Americans that this is how they behave. And so Gingrich is calling for an ethics investigation against an ethics committee investigation on that house speaker is like shooting, the general you're not supposed to the code of the houses, you don't do this new striking at the top of the food chain. It's brazen. I wanna see here tactical as Gingrich's attack on bright was from one perspective. This was an attack on corrupt Lisi Democrats that was long overdue. It felt idealistic for everyone. Sick of being pushed around in the minority. Gingrich promised new system that was less corrupt more transparent more accountable. To the voters. Not just like we're putting on a play that were two parties. But it's PM we drop the mask and make it work Democrats freaked out when this happened, but Republicans were getting into it. It's not like Gingrich launched campaign in the entire public and party signs of letter in that shit, but they they didn't pull aside and say stop, and I think even a couple years earlier with tip O'Neill that would have happened. Newt gets his ethics investigation into the speakers behavior. Right defends himself petulantly on the house floor is true. I think. People on my staff were eager to sell these. I've got except some very badly wrong. But the rule doesn't say. It's kinda yes, I had a private E mail server, but it wasn't that big a deal, you know, by now, how that goes over after an investigation the most powerful man in the house who serve for thirty four years is forced to resign rate gives a speech on the house floor that reminded me of Jeff flake retiring from the Senate last year, and it is reversely hurtful society. Vilification becomes unaccepted form of political debate negative campaigning becomes a full time occupation. When members of each party become self appointed vigilantes hearing out personal vendettas against members of the and he frames it in terms of, you know, something wrong is happening in this institution. That's not what this institutions posed to be over. Then you know, when I came here congressmens word was congressmens word and that mattered for something, you know, when I came here we in question each other's honor. I mean, it's all subtext all this. He's not using his name, obviously. But the subtext of this is Newt Gingrich harsh personal acts on one another's motives and one another's character drown out. Why of logic serious debate on part of Asians? Surely, that's where the. Jim Wright painted his resignation as a sacrifice on the altar of civility. He seemed to think is resignation would be so dramatic. It would put an end to the wars. Gingrich started in the house, obviously, the opposite is true. Republicans in congress are galvanized by rights fall tactics to get the wars that Gingrich dreams of are starting to materialize. New becomes the second. Most powerful Republican in the house, and he starts making himself into a franchise in the mid eighties. He starts running. This is Asian called go pack, basically, a candidate training organization and fundraising tool. That's where he develops these audiotapes little by mail, cassette tapes that teach potential candidates how to do Newt's divisive brand of politics. John banners? Talked about driving around listening to tapes like this in the car, I want to repeat it. But I'll just tell you. I have said this now for six months and every audience I say two nods. Yes. And understands you cannot maintain civilization. With twelve year olds having babies fifteen year olds shooting each other seventeen year olds dying of aids and eighteen year olds getting diploma. They can't read, and I stopped audiences and say now if you disagree with that, and you think you can maintain a civilization with those things going on the rest of what I'm gonna say rela you're not I don't waste your time. You're not. On one team or the other. So that's a lot Gingrich's almost at the height of his power. He has an army of Republicans falling in line using the same language that they're going into battle his media attention, but at the same old entrenched Democratic Congress Republicans keep winning these big presidential victories. But the houses stuck with that permanent Republican minority. That's where the second guy comes into this story the guy that made Newt Gingrich's dreams. Finally, come true. And no, I don't mean Democratic President Bill Clinton there. You could certainly argue that that is why gets his wish but something happens before that someone this is a man who I think has had an astonishing impact in America. He is in many ways the quintessential American, here's Newt Gingrich. Introducing him at training event for public in candidates and ninety five one of the reasons I believe in the end will win is the person is about to talk to you. We now have a media giant who stands a stride the entire society. Join me in welcoming a man who is creating the twenty-first century. Rush limbaugh. Rush Limbaugh was the perfect tool for Newt's mission. You knew had basically the same views, but Russia's outrageous and exciting you meet his listeners feel like they were part of a righteous underground, the only people who are still saying in a world, gone crazy and stupid. Thank you. Thank you very much. Nice to be with all of you extremists tonight. It's nice to be with like minded souls who want to starve our children and get our old folk sick and dying in the gutter. It's so nice to be with so many of you can just look out there. I see in so many hearts and faces the desire to poison the water in the air GM net great to be together here tonight. Russia's communications ambitions were just as high as news political ones. He never wanted to be in politics and just wanted to make the greatest radio show ever. Tied behind my back just to make it fair. It's the Rush Limbaugh program from New York in our flagship stations at the standard for political talk radio. And of course, we. Have it right here? Widely imitated rush was funny. Did you know that the White House drug test is multiple choice? He could also be cruel. He said things like if you don't wanna get aids don't have gay sex. He was heavily anti political correctness. Hinge acting almost as Newt's defacto interpreter. He's used up his message brush doesn't sound like a nerdy. Professor Gingrich talked about saving America from liberal politicians. But Limbaugh sharpened the versus them. Democrats were about this Republicans were about that this is from Russia's TV show or I only Baird big trouble. She's been nominated as Torney general. But as you all know, she hired illegal aliens to take care of her kids. Now, she only makes six hundred sixty thousand dollars. As Cokie Roberts have ABC says she had the best line that kind of money should get higher. Mary poppins. What does she? Now. I have a couple of points about this. I wanna make that I don't think anybody else's made except me other places in case you haven't heard it. You should hear it because brilliant points Bill Clinton's nominee for Torney general. So we Baird hired undocumented immigrant as a nanny for kids didn't pay social security taxes at the time. I was eleven I remember it. Well, choose the only other Zoe I'd ever heard of. So I was thrilled. So he paid the money back after she was nominated and neither Senate Democrats or Republicans saw it as big deal at first, but new Gingrich. This is that's the nerve of politics that Newt Gingrich is just conditioned to look for. And it's God. Could it be any bigger, right? You've got a democratic president coming in. And he for attorney general the top law enforcement officer in the country. He's nominating. A woman who just sort of, you know, blatantly flouted social security taxes, it just that populous nerve of they get away with things you don't they live lives of privilege. You can't imagine. They Lord it over you. They don't have. To worry about the things you worry about it. Touched all of those nerve Gingrich guide at immediately. He's railing against this Limbaugh guided immediately, he's railing against this. And what happens is the senators who are in the comedian in don't feel this this immediately. They start feeling it. 'cause they're phone's ringing off the hook. You know, they're they're Democrats who start saying after a couple of days their office of calls are like ninety two one against Zoe Baird confirmation. I mean, this is why spread and then they feel the pressure. They pressure that Gingrich and Limbaugh have stoked and and it kills the nomination. When Newt needed to communicate something to voters. He now had a direct line to millions of them listening to rush every afternoon. One after night we have in the middle of a big fight here. And I called rush Limbaugh's program director. And I said, here's exactly what's going on. He turned on C span. He could see what was going on. It was an issue. They cared about. And rush went straight in talking about. And he's got somewhere between four and fourteen million people, but it's a lot and they're intense an hour later, I had members what the floor saying what did you do? Because literally in some places their phones are so jammed. They couldn't use them. That's from a documentary. Rush Limbaugh, America. It describes how Newt would just fax talking points out to talk show hosts around the country. It was like he was calling in airstrikes by what to read to you. Now, a paragraph from a letter that Newt Gingrich sent to all Republican members knew it wasn't just starting the pot with divisive politics. He did have a policy vision got people to unite under it going into the nineteen ninety four midterm elections. Hundreds of Republican candidates signed onto this thing. The contract with America for a moment. They were all literally on the same page with Newt Gingrich the contract promise to fix everything they thought had gone wrong after forty years of one party control of the house their anti-corruption measures targeted at the congress itself. Plus a slate of ten proposals to balance the budget cut welfare tougher sentencing, lower taxes, basically, a limited government law and order agenda there in the contract in full in an ad in TV guide because. Everyone read TV guide and they'd open it up several times a week. And with that, Newt Gingrich, of course, got his majority like he'd always dreamed and became speaker of the house in nineteen ninety five he moved into the office held by Jim raid and tip O'Neill before him. Here's democrat Dick Gephardt handing over the gavel with resignation but with resolve I hereby end forty years of democratic rule of this house. Gingrich pledges to work across the aisle as they always do do for the first time Republicans don't have to. It's an epic hugely significant victory, though, is news stream many people called it. The Limbaugh congress. How does it feel to be part of a majority? That's right. It wasn't just the majority gotten people seem to be signing onto their vision of the country that it was split into two clear camps. Democrats were immoral welfare-state loving, politically, correct, feminists, Republicans were responsible balanced budget, promoting normal regular Americans one of the questions. I was asked as the as the reporters were peppering me was do you think Newt will moderators stance now that he's the speaker of the house, and I said that or not? From the moment. Gingrich becomes speaker things. Get pretty red versus blue one Republican. I talked to this week quoted to me from memory indignant, something ABC news anchor Peter Jennings said on the air when Republicans finally took the house installed Gingrich's speaker Jennings said the voters had a temper tantrum the nation can't be run by an angry two year old. This Republicans point was it wasn't just Rush Limbaugh who is stoking the fires of partisan warfare. It was the mainstream media would he'd call the liberal media. It was a new day in congress speaker in the president kingdom in Clinton. They did not hang out the politics that follow our personal and vicious as I'm sure, you know, it's a storm of whitewater, Hillary care government shutdown Vince, Foster impeachment proceedings seems like the two sides couldn't stand each other. When Timothy McVeigh blew up a federal office building in Oklahoma City Clinton gives a speech blaming in part talk radio for spreading hate. It. Was gridlock, politics, depending how you saw it. It was struck Shiism for its own sake were obstructionism in defensive bigger ideas. That were finally part of the conversation. People signed up for red for signed up for blue politics team sports, new compromises in other words, leave arrived at today. The whole reason I wanted to remind myself of Newt and that time where these pass midterm elections. They felt like the extreme sports version of Newt's game plan. Just like he worked really hard to make every democrat into George McGovern. The campaign that the Republicans ran tried to make every democrat into a caravan loving, caviar. Hating Nancy Pelosi nude himself was on FOX of bunch and his Lieutenant what honor this is so exciting. I have been watching Trump rallies from the very first one. Rush Limbaugh was the opener for Trump's last rally before the mid term of this talking to people backstage and somebody said that the president and all of us have labeled by some Democrats to the media divisive. Device. The Democrats never even accept that. They want the two thousand six. There's this one moment where I think neutralize maybe he'd gone too far and pushing people apart Stephen gillen reported the story years leader in his book, the pact was Toby nineteen Ninety-seven. Newt was speaker Clinton was president. They wanted to cement their legacies is great men of history. They decided to tackle two of the most daunting issues out there, Medicare and social security fix them once and for all they'd be safe for generations to come the federal budget for once it was about to run a surplus now is the time because they've fought so publicly they met in secret to avoid reporters. Gingrich entered the White House through a side door if the partisans in either of their parties, they were working together the deal would fall apart zealots on both teams would punish you for working with the other side. The deal never happens. Four months after the agreed to work together. The Monica Lewinsky story broke a few months after that Gingrich was pushed out of the house. He had to deal with ethics charges like the speaker he'd gone after ten years earlier, and he was really unpopular by that the political environment he'd willed into creation. It's spit him out can't work anymore with these cannibals. He said as he left but look at him now. Can't stay away. Jerry chase producers program. Thanks, Steve Kornacki, book gave us the idea for the story. His book is called the red and the blue the nineteen s and the birth of political tribalism coming up now, I would say that one of our co workers got the idea to the store you're going to hear in a minute. He would say he had no choice about that. Or for that matter about anything ever in his life. And he'd say you don't have a choice either with Alli means by that. And he is not kidding in a minute. Chicago public radio when our program continues support for this American life comes from rocket mortgage by Quicken Loans. Introducing they're all new rate shield approval. If you're in the market to my home, Quicken Loans will lock your rate for up to ninety days while you shop. It's this type of idea that has made them America's largest mortgage lender. To get started go to rocketmortgage dot com slash. American rate shield approval, only valid uncertain thirty year purchase transactions additional conditions or exclusions may apply based on Quicken Loans. Data in comparison to public data records, equal housing lender. Licensed in all fifty states and MLS consumer access dot org number three zero three zero and from capitol one Capital One wants to build a better Bank one that feels and acts nothing like typical Bank. So they're reimagining banking. They offer one of the nation's best savings rates and accounts with no fees or minimums that can be opened from anywhere in five minutes. That's banking reimagined Capital One. What's in your wallet capital? One NA. Dismay life Myra glass, each we're gonna pay him. Of course, choose the theme different stories on that the today show where there's a will stories of people who cannot stop themselves. I'm trying to make things happen. The way they think they should happen. In this world, we've arrived at two of our program to life is a one sided coin. So the entire premise of show today is where there's a will which supposes that we all have a will that we all have the ability to decide something and take action in the world. But it turns out that there are people who take issue with that premise one of them is one of our co workers here at the radio show, David Kessler bomb in presents. This minority report. Let me say up front I realized the ridiculous late night college dorm room nature of what I'm about to say. But here it is. I do not see how free will can exist by free will. I mean when you're staring at the menu, and you pick the salad over the burger or any other choice, you make bigger small who you marry whether you keep listening to me for another minute free. Will is the idea that you really get to pick. I'm saying, you don't I don't see how free will can exist. I'm someone embarrassed to be saying this for a while. I couldn't even talk with my wife about it. It's been on my mind because I was wondering if I should talk about it on the show today. And we'd be making the kids lunches for the next day. There'd be a gap in the conversation at open my mouth. But I just couldn't do it. I don't know why I'm thinking about this. Now, I think the last time I did was in high school, but I just moved on. It seems inescapable though years ago. I went to grad school in physics. And I think if you haven't had the experience of actually doing something like that it's easy to be like oh science. There's lots of stuff. They don't know. But the truth is we know a lot about how the world is put together, please, excuse electric quality of this. But briefly they're only four basic forces in the world, gravity electromagnetism and two others the strong force and the weak force the first hold atomic nuclei together the second crudely. Speaking powers, the sun. Our understanding of these forces has been tested and explore it again. And again in one case that sticks with name measured and confirmed to an astounding twelve decimal places these four forces explain how Adams stick together every bit of matter moves, and yes, even the bits of matter that make up us and our brains. We are just collections of atoms. I don't see how those atoms. Can truly have any will when you think you are deciding I'm going to wear this shirt today. You can't really have decided otherwise we are subject to the forces of nature, not one of them. It turns out there is this one friend of our family. Hey, stew who also does not see how free will can exist. Talking to him on the phone asking. If you knew any serious minded credential people could talk to input on the radio as it happened. He was staring at his book shelve, they had a whole collection their books by a bunch of dead philosophers thinkers, various sorts, and then one book by someone who seemed perfect Robert suppo-, sqi suppose, professor at Stanford genius grant recipient. He's a neuroscientist who also spent thirty three summer staring at babboons just last year published this big book it was on my friends shelf called behave. So I read it, and there's something curious about it. He seemed to be making the argument that there is no free will. But he never quite came out. And said the words free will don't even appear until page. Five hundred eighty the first fifteen chapters are all about research into what drives human behavior different parts of the brain hormones genetics. How we respond to sensory cues? Was he just voiding coming out and saying it like I've been? So you asked this question can there be free will? But I don't think you directly come out and say what you think. So so so what what do you think? I think I was basically trying to be polite there and sort of good house guest in actuality. I don't think there is room for the slightest. Bit of free will out there, supposedly said, this wasn't fact the entire reason he had written the book he was trying to lead people slowly on a gentle path this uncomfortable idea. I was reading it, right? Asked him. Why he doesn't believe we have free will as a neuroscientist? He thinks about it this way, take any action a movement of your eyebrow. Something you say just trace that thing back behind anything like that are just the muscles that move. So let's simplify it a muscle did something meaning a newer on in your motor cortex commanded your muscle to do that. That neuron fired only because it got inputs from Tina other neurons milliseconds before and those neurons only fired because they got inputs milliseconds before and back and back and back show me one Noorani anywhere in this pathway that from out of nowhere decided to say something that activated in ways that are not explained by the laws of the physical universe and high on and channels and all that sort of stuff show me one Noor on that has some cellular semblance of free will. And there is no such neuro. Your emotions consciousness same argument at the bottom just cells and chemicals acting like they wouldn't alab there's nothing more or less than the mechanics. I mean, if your book could actually just been two sentences to cut to the chase, you know. Not that he didn't enjoy the other chapters. What does it actually mean not to have free? Will do you think of it? As like if you rewind the clock. It would unfold the same way. Basically, it's got to mean that I should say there is some debate about whether no free will means that if you went back in time and let your life unfold again, you would make all the same decisions. Exactly the same way. The reason there's some debate is that way down at the subatomic level. There does seem to be a little wellspring of randomness quantum mechanics is all about probabilities like when a radioactive atom breaks apart. The exact moment happens seems random it's unclear how often this apparent subatomic randomness escapes into the larger world, but it could be that. If you rewound the film of life it for it again, you might get a different movie. But it wouldn't be because of free will it would just be subatomic randomness messing with the plot. A friend of mine had this experience where you kinda got to test this out his brain was artifice rolling back the clock, and he got to see it's machine lake nature. He was ice skating any fell than his head which gave him some temporary amnesia when he was on the stretcher he asked what had happened. His wife said you fell in your head and he made this joke. That's not how you wanna leave the ice. But then he kept asking what had happened making the same joke. Like, oh, I found the ice. I know good joke to make here. After he said, it was like opening up, the hard drive of his mind and seeing inside. He's fine. That by the way. For me. It is the one scientific like fact about the world that I am just not okay. With like, I'm fine with the big bang, and that all of existence came from a tiny point like that doesn't faze me anymore. But I am not okay. With the idea that I don't have free will like that seems like I can't give that up. You know, if I give up giving up everything, I know, it's really really hard. But I feel like I'm deciding to say what I say right now. I feel pretty confident about that. When I think I'm making a decision. What am I actually doing? There's just a whole bunch of neuronal Fulcher, some sort of rube Goldberg sort of stretch of things teeter this way or that. And as a result bounce something else in another direction. So while it feels like we could choose this. Or maybe that the truth is some set of events mechanically led to our final decision. We just aren't aware of it. Suppose key brought up this famous experiment. Sit somebody down at a room and ask them to name their favorite detergent, and who knows what they're gonna come up with do the same thing. And there's a picture of the ocean and the room on the wall, and they're now significantly more likely to say tied tides, my favorite detergent and ask them why. And they will give you some fa- Kochta rational explanation about what tied does to. They're like strawberry stains on their shirts suppose. He says when we think we are making a decision, it is basically just some more complicated version of that you were looking at the menu the room was slightly warm. Your shoes were wet from the rain late above the table was just so and so you pick the salad the mom who yells at the army general couldn't have done it any other way, Newt Gingrich when he got to congress same thing. Speaking of which did we all just go and vote choose representatives. If you believe what I'm saying, no one, really. Have decided to choose differently. And look I'm not saying don't vote you should vote. Do good things be kind give to charity. I'm just saying. It's weird. We are machines that don't know it, but don't wanna deal with it. For suppose game this idea that we don't have free will truly profound and should change the way we think about lots of things for instance, all those decisions you've made because you're a good person. All the things you're proud of don't be so proud anyone else starting with your Adams in the same place would have done the same thing. When people do bad things, he says, you shouldn't hate them. Probably also says we should try to rethink the entire Justice system. Which of course, is a weird thing to say since there is no trying. I mean, it's just such a crazy making idea, you know. Yup. Are you okay with it not on the slightest? If I stop and think about it. I get slightly panicked. There's no way to get out of like an extension morass. If you start really thinking about this stuff. How often do you find yourself thinking about it? Oh, I don't know. Maybe. Four or five times an hour. And this is all I think about these days. It's amazing to me that scientists don't talk about this more. I think I went my entire graduate career testing the fundamental laws of nature without ever coming up. Hi, how are you? How's the exam midterm? This is Melissa Franklin professor of physics at Harvard and for years, she was my professor I talked to her for the show when I was grappling with the possibility that we might be alone in the universe. So she seemed like a logical choice for this question. Like, this is how you think about it too. Right. That we can't possibly have free will. I think that there's no evidence that we have free will. I mean, I guess it's possible it seems it seems unlikely I mean, there's. You know, it seems like we have free will. That's the thing. Right. Yeah. So is asking one of my colleagues today. Do you believe in free will and he says, absolutely? And I said, do you think our brains are made up of neurons and Exxon's and things he said, yes. They said, so how does how do you reconcile those two things. He said if it walks like free will and quacks like free fi will. Like our word is wrong. No, the point is that operationally we appear to have free will. But it's wrong. Yeah. It is wrong. But it seems like we do. So by not just go with the flow that idea. Choose at lunch when this conversation happened and immediately another colleague jumped in to argue the other side, and the other was just saying, you know. Your. Without saying it it the word. It is. You're not it's one of these things when you start to talk about things that you don't want to think about that you sort of hope that magic comes in some way. So one of them was saying, well, the could be some complex thing that comes in that, you know, actually gives us free will and the other person was saying you're talking about magic or God. And just just say that loud magic. Melissa is actually okay with the idea of not having free. Well, maybe the problem of Justice sheen is not a nice, not a nice way of thinking that. I mean, a human is not Justice sheen. I mean, a human is an amazing. Yeah. I love I I love the machine that is my wife and my two little machines adorable. But when I think about it. That's what they are. They're so cute though. I go back and forth on what to do with this information. Sometimes I feel like Robert supposedly does that. This is something deeply profound. We are machines that are smart enough to figure that out to realize we probably can't have free will. And so we should think about what that means for how we organize our society. How we treat other people. But there's another part of me, the feels like maybe it changes nothing at all. Which is weird to know that we are all living with this allusion of free will. But somehow doesn't matter. I've come to think of my daily existence is kind of like being in a movie where I'm just along for the ride I making choices all day long. But machine that is me couldn't really have chosen anything else. It gives me a weird lightness when I think about it that way. And if I'm being honest, it also feels kind of cool knowing this thing that no one wants to face up to watching us all run around is. It's not true. When you pick a song to listen to when you decide to try a second date when you go left instead of right when I say something stupid instead of just sitting and thinking for a moment when I pick what picture to draw my son's lunch bag. Aren't really choices? But I'm good at living with contradictions. It's in the machinery. David kestler. Bam. Stay. If you will. What show is produced today by David Kestler, people put our show together and could Zoe TAY Sean co Jared Floyd they may grave Michelle Harris Jeffey wad, set lane, Dan, Martin Mckee Niks, Nelson, Catherine may Mondo and semi Elissa ship. Christopher Ceuta and Diane. Woo. Senior producers Brian read them, Susan Britton special. Thanks today to rob long do Greenberg Sean Carroll, Jimmy Rica's, Charlie shop, Stephen Talbot. And thanks to the frontline documentary. The long March of Newt Gingrich our website this American life dot org. We listened to our archive of over six hundred for absolutely free as American life is public radio stations by PR X, the public radio exchange for for this American life comes from Lago. Nita's Barron company. Burs a finals, and they say mystery and romance. And of course, committed to the pub- in public radio. Find out more want you at Luggy nita's dot com. And from the new one, Mike bigly is one man show on Broadway. That I worked on with him is about not wanting to be a parent, and then stuff happens jam-packed with jokes and also people cry this American life listeners can get a special discount on tickets at the new one dot com slash American life. Co-founder mystery amount of Tia, Tori, we've got thirty seconds left in the program. What should we do? Just shut up shut up shut up now. Don't talk about anymore. Shut up. I'm IRA glass back next week with more stories this American life.

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Talking Legal with Clifton Molatore

You're Welcome! With Chael Sonnen

00:00 sec | 1 year ago

Talking Legal with Clifton Molatore

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Hits you could be saving fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Extra money in your pocket. It just might be the most rewarding thing you do today. He's defeated every champion from every organization the sport of mixed martial arts has ever seen and retired. From the octagon is the biggest draw and the industry's highest paid athlete of all time. And now now jail Sunan on odd cast one dot com. And for that. You're welcome. What's happening guys happy Wednesday? And thank you for joining another special episode of you're welcome. I will tell you. I am joined in studio today by Clifton Molitor attorney we're going to we're going to go over some legal stuff that is making the news. But I must tell you guys I've been wanting to tell you this for about a week. Now, I went out. I saw the rocks new movie I liked it back up though. I did not like the theater I saw it it. It's a regal theatre. I've always enjoyed regal particularly out here in Oregon. They're like the ones that I brought us stadium seating. And why we're all spoiled now, and you would never think of even having a movie theater that did it have stadium seating in Oregon. I still remember when they came out and his stadium say it was so great. I love the theater I love going to love the pop. I love the pucker. Guess what they did there working this new system now? And I feel like regal has totally sold. I will not be going back. I will tell you that. I don't say that within each. I will not be going back. I know of another theater Clackamas town center that is where I will take taking my business, but will regal is doing out here in Oregon is you now have to reserve your seat. So like when I walk up to go see the movie and community for the movie, she then directs me to a screen of which I'm supposed to pick my seat and my seat number now gets printed on you guys understand. They're trying to treat it like it's Yankee Stadium where I'm actually buying a seat everybody in the world understands the movie customer retailer relationship in his first come first serve. That's how it works. You don't get a really great seat and show fifteen minutes early and then go and tuck into your cozy seat. It doesn't work that way there early. And you've got to watch all the commercials, and you gotta get all your popcorn and your pop, and you gotta get in there. And sometimes it's gonna work out. And sometimes it's not and if you go on opening night, maybe it's not, but that's still the exchange. They're trying to treat it like it's Anki stadium. But there's a significant difference, which is the movie theater is dark, and they don't have Shire's. So. He was supposed to find the seat supposed to bring like a little mini flashlight, which surprisingly some people did so people actually had little mini. Flashlights? As snooping around looking for the seats. It's like, hey, guys, not for nothing. But the theaters about ten percents just sit down just sit down and regal for selling out for added a level of complication to one of the most simplistic things that I get to do by choice in my life, which is buy a ticket and go into a movie theater. Shame on you with that said, I wish I could make that a legal case. I don't know how to other than I'm very irritated by all right guy. So as you know, I start my day the same every single day I wake up earlier than I want to get a Cup of coffee, and I start I start surfing the news. I got it on the television. And I'm scanning the interwebs to see what's interesting to dissect and come to bring it to you guys. So I have joined in studio today. Clifton molotov attorney in front of the show is back because Clifton what the hell is going on with this. This college scandal slash Hollywood VIP list that we're all hearing about where where where should I start this story? There are so many different ways to go with this. But there is an enterprise that some gentlemen form to where they would help children of wealthy or ams people get into colleges that they would otherwise not get into. And you know, there are some of the best universities in the world that are on there. There's Yale Stanford. Yeah. Some of the some of the big big big players. And of course, the university of San Diego. So the the big universities. Okay. So I'm trying to dissect this the watching it all debit reading about it all day. But I it's it's like this octopus with all these different arms. So ultimately, some guy there's one guy, and he he's been to court already. He actually walked right in and play guilty to a litany of charges. I mean, money laundering was one of them one of the bigger problems that he see I'm trying to set this up for the audience. It's been living under a rock and Clinton. I just don't know. Oh, how to begin? So I'm just diving into the sink full force. But there's a guy the guy put some scam together that involved, rigging the SAT's. I'm told the students would go in and take the SAT and somebody would kind of correct. The answers before they submit it to go through the machine he went out to the famous celebrities. These a listers if you will and and hear from a legal standpoint, I think this might be as big as problem, and there's and there's he set up a charity and goes, okay, donate big money to this charity, and I'll get your kids into college is owned, by the way, since it's a charity feel free to write this off. Now, that's where the handcuffs come in. As I'm seeing it. He then as you said had had administration officials at some of the top colleges in the world and our country also on the take how exactly he was facilitating and getting the funds to them. I'm not yet aware. But ultimately, he was getting kids into schools where they didn't belong and the downside to that before anybody goes. Well. Yeah. That's just kind of the way it works. The downside is no there was kids at worked hard, but didn't have whether it's the appetite for the injustice for the criminal activity or the funds to do it or the parents to make the phone call. So there is victims in this, even if you don't see them right up front Clift. Also, also, and I'm hoping you can speak on gum jumping around. Did you see where he was even putting them on sports teams like crew, by example, when the kids had never even done crew before yet? No an octopus. I think is a good way to describe this. It's really rather ingenious. I think how he did it. So yeah, he set up a charity. There was also a for profit entity. And so as best that I could understand it the people would pay money in up to six and a half million dollars to do this. And then he would he had a various people on the take. So like, you said some people would he would work on getting them better SAT scores. And he. Would say okay, tell the parents will claim that your child has a learning disability. And so if you have a learning disability, you can often get significantly more time to take the SAT's. And then he would have some of the proctors giving the exams. He would either. Correct. The test for them give them extra time or they're alleging in certain instances. They would have a ringer come in and take the test for them. I saw somewhere that one kid improved over the PSAT to the SAT four hundred points, which is mean announced I mean, just a Croat Lee. Yeah. Quite a leap. And so that's how they did it on the testing front and then. They also had people at the various universities in the ethnic departments would list. Some of these kids as recruits to the school when they either had never played the sport didn't play the sport. Competitively, and they also even went as far as to Photoshop their kids as head onto the body of an actual competitive athletes. Okay. See? Now that now that we've told the story again for anybody that just hasn't been exposed to this and we dove right into it. But cliff one of the biggest reasons in the history of the world anybody ever gets caught in a crime is because somebody talks and the the most obvious crimes are the ones where you bring in a lot of people. I just could only imagine how quickly this would unravel when your photo shopping your kids face on the face of another athlete that happens to belong to a team, by the way, who's going to see that photo at something called social media. I would assume and go they're not on our team. As a matter of fact, not only that that's my body. I mean, right you when you bring in so many different people. How long was he getting away with this? By the way. I you know, I haven't seen. But I think it's been a long. Okay. So he pulled it off for a while. And I think made a lot of money. I mean, there were think forty four people who were indicted. I mean, there were there were a lot of people that were involved in this and indicted one, of course. There were forty four people that were indicted. There's many many more who were involved and just how either haven't been charged yet or somehow aren't going to be charged. So the kids knew about this the kids had knowledge. No one thing that I read said that most of if not all of the kids did not know this was going on. And that their parents were doing really it was that right? Okay. What I was going to say is I would imagine they had they had knowledge of it. But to this point none of been charged in honor even expected to be charged. Whether I'm accurate on that or not. It's still leads to my next question who all is it fault from a legal standpoint? Now, I see where the parents are in a jam if they donate it to a fake charity. And then wrote that off their in a big problem now now you've got conspiracy and fraud and all sorts of different things take that legal element out of it. If a parent had an opportunity to have an end with some kind of a fixer right because there's people out there that go. Hey, I help you with your SAT's. I had one of them. Now, what that consisted of she came over to my mother's house. We sat in the kitchen, and we read the hell out of the books. I'm just saying there are people out there that are. Most of them are called tutors. But if you meet a guy, I I have another way, and here's the way from a legal standpoint. Where is your fault is apparent that goes? Yeah, I'm willing to pay ten thousand in tutoring fees, or I'm willing to pay you ten thousand dollars, and it looks like we're doing a little something off grid here. But is that on them? Or is that on the guy with the power that takes the money goes facilitates things? Well, it's on both. Because the the parents have committed fraud on one of the definite fraud has many definitions, and there's many ways to commit fraud. But it's generally a wrongful or criminal deception intended to result in financial or personal gain. And of course, the deception was either or and the wrongful part of it was either cheating on the SAT's or photo shopping your kids head onto some other kids body or claiming that your kid was a star athlete when they weren't. I mean, all of this is deception because it's all either untrue or you're cheating. And the end the personal gain aspect of it is while your kids get into a better school than they should be getting in and so that's fraud on the parent's part. And and then a lot of it has was mail fraud and so- fraud or mail fraud is generally fraud that's committed using the US postal service. So you, you know, you take your college transcript that says your with your falsified or cheating SAT scores or with picture of your body Photoshop on a somewhere else, and they stick it in the mail all sudden that's mail fraud. Or if you're sending and there's also I think I'll Gatien's of wire fraud wire fraud is then you're using the e send a wire to the charity, you know, to you know, to perpetrate these frauds? And so then that's wire fraud. And so I think one of the interesting things is if you heard of Rico course, which was passed in the seventies too. To fight monsters. You know, the mafia and was used to bring down a lot of the crime families and crime syndicates, but it's still a law on the books. And now it's used for things like this, and what, you know, a Rico, vitamin Enrico is very complicated. But what it is you have an enterprise, which is a, you know, kind of a group or an organization it could be a partnership a corporation could be a mafia family and the enterprise is essentially in the business of committing crimes. And there are thinker thirty five awed crimes that qualify as predicate acts for Rico violation. And then you have to have two or more of those in a ten year period. And so the p the the got the mastermind who was organizing and perpetrating all these frauds, and he was charged and I believe pled guilty to Rico violations, and that's a big big deal. And so then what it does is it just gives the federal government the ability to. Charge. More people I believe with greater sentences, and it just it allows the federal government to really hammer. These pizzas in is that what they're looking to Enrico something to do with interstate as well. Correct. Don't you have to cross state lines to qualify for Rico do? Yeah. And a lot of states have similar Rico statutes, but yeah. Generally, the the federal government in order to I mean, they're special statutes and a lot of federal statutes you have to cross state lines in order to violate a federal statue like their state their state law fraud claim. So if I you know. Fraudulently got you to sell me your car for less than what was what it was worth. I committed some sort of fraud on you. Well, we're both in the state of Oregon, that's probably a state law fraud case. But if I that if I get you to tell me your car fraudulently, but I do it through sending something through the US postal service. You know, the US postal service is regulated by the federal government. So all the sudden that's a federal crime. So it and federal crimes are often. We'll have similar sentences to state law crimes, but the differences the F B I investigates and other federal agencies investigate federal crimes, and they just have a much bigger hammer than most of the state agencies. So my guess is the gentleman who organized this and set up the charity and took the money and made the context was the ringleader. I imagine he's going to do some real time. I don't think that the DA or the prosecutor is going to be nice to him. And I based on the fact that I watched a spoke. 'person and possibly it was the DA the prosecutor himself, but whoever spoke on behalf he was pretty upset about this. He was pretty upset that this was going on that it was attempted that it worked and to go back to what I was saying earlier that kids who earned the opportunity and should have been giving admittance to some of these universities did not get it all while the rich and powerful, we're gaming the system. He seemed pretty upset. Am I right though, in you're getting you'd have to guess, but I guess when I first saw flippity husband Huffman comes to mind because I watched episode housewives. I just watched three billboards outside of ebbing, Missouri. Right. I'm a fan of hers and my wrong to believe that nothing is going to happen to them. They saw an opportunity, and they took it or or is that wrong. If somebody looking to cuff her up, why minor standing she's already been arrested, and she was as of this morning when I think I last looked she was in custody, and then I saw so that the. The woman from full house aunt yucky. I think they'll be was they were arranging to have her arrested in the afternoon. I mean, are they going to do time? Probably not I wouldn't think. So I mean, it's a white collar offense. They'll you know, they'll probably get put on probation. And I doubt that they'll do anytime, but they'll probably have to pay some fines and things like that felony. They're being charged with a felony. Yeah. When you say, and I also saw that fil am. I saying this, right. Felicia Huffman, Felicity. Thank you, very, Felicity. I also saw that she was arrested. But did that involve like a search warrant at handcuffs, and they took her into custody or was that they call your attorney come down here. We're going to book yet. I think it's you I guessing it's the ladder. Okay. I mean, she's not gonna have to post bail. Correct. Well, I saw that she knows I think they called it a signature bail. So basically, it's a promise that you will show up in court. So she didn't have to post ten thousand dollars bail or anything like that really tough spot to the prosecutor or at lea-. The spokesman for the prosecution here, I don't have his name or title. But he did say something he made this kind of clear before anybody could go aren't these aren't these waters? Always muddied aren't they always muddied in this country about how you do it. He stepped right in front of that before anybody asked. And he said there are many ways that the wrong people get admitted to these colleges. One of them is some donor puts their name on a building and donates a billion says, by the way, my grandson just applied because that's a bribe. But it does work that we see that that this is totally different than misrepresenting cheated on the SAT coming in with sports scholarships. And he touched on that one to to say something that you know, that you could even donate to a sports team in an athlete. The wasn't all that good is likely to get placed on the team. That's true. I could I could give you examples that I've seen in my own life of that. But he's saying this is further this this was absolutely meant as a deception, and he was pissed quite frankly Clifton, if you if you watch he was upset almost like maybe there was a personal tight. That in his youth in him climbing up in him, working hard and people stepping in front of him. But I could see an anger in his face. Did you happen to watch that press conference when he was talking about who is coming after? And why no I didn't. But I guess it's not surprising. And I think you know, I didn't get into the college that I wanted to when I was coming out of high school. And I it it still bothers me to this day. So I think you might be onto something that. Yeah. Maybe he wanted to get into Harvard, and he didn't and he's had that chip on his shoulder. And he's fought and fought and fought the whole way that certainly could be the case or I mean, this is you know, there were a lot of crimes committed here. There was a lot of money involved. He could just be, you know, a, very zealous advocate. And I mean, these are serious crimes. So and that's what we supposed to do. We supposed to get upset about this this Saturday night. March sixteenth do not miss the biggest pay per view fight of the year as two of the best pound for pound fighters in the world put their perfect. Records on the line. 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Patriots owner. Help me with his name wanna see Jerry Jones. Yeah. Robert, Robert Kraft. He's in a jam you follow that. Yup. Went into the massage parlor from a legal standpoint without being a defense attorney. But just take your best guess here. I'm looking at that. And I'm saying this simply isn't going to stick to have a solicitation, and they say, well, we've got the whole thing on video solicitation would have to be where he makes the proposition that has to be unwanted, by the way and works out some kind of terms, which they simply don't have. Now, I'm aware of why they don't have it. I'm not being crazy on this. They don't have it because he's a return customer and those conversations were had before the cops ever put the cameras, and I get all of that. But isn't this amiss? Isn't that something that probably never should what are you possibly going to do with two consenting adults and no video of a proposition and the onus being on the business owner not on the customer, aren't they just sent out to embarrass the guy. Well, I think anytime that there is a sexual act, and then money is exchanged. I think you have that on video. I think the chances are pretty good there. They've got him on this. And I don't know. And I think they also had my understanding is they've got recordings to of of this. And so it wouldn't surprise me if they do have and maybe not with you know, the owner of the patriots. But maybe with other people where they come in and say, well, also it's one hundred dollars for this or it's two hundred dollars for that. Or whatever it is. And then it's much much clear. It's like, okay. Well, we're we're bargaining for a sexual act here. But I think anytime that there's a sect sexual act and money is exchanged again. I don't do this type of work. But I I. I think he's his goose's. Probably I'll tell you where I get annoyed with this. And probably the only reason I'm even bringing it up is one at sure does seem like a lot of work for a misdemeanor for a ticket from that standpoint. Now Florida's Jusin to pay for it. I guess that's on their tax payers to to speak out with a agree or they don't. But Secondly, the story is never been told the way the story should be told. Which is you're talking about people who are being enslaved and put into a trafficking a sex trafficking. Ring. That's the story. You know, the cop himself that went in there for a massage, and he was just a regular customer looks around. And goes it looked like these women were living there. I want to go in and free them and find out what's going on that seems like a tremendous store and even a noble act on his behalf where he should get a medal put on him. But for some reason some of the media's going they just went out to try to embarrass a guy on charges of which may or may not stick. But ultimately result in the misdemeanor. Anyway, I just wish the store would get told. If these women are being forced. And now they're being freed, it seems like we've got the villain in the hero of the story. Why is that not the story? I completely agree with you. And I think mostly because that doesn't sell, but you know, the owner of the patriots can hand job in a massage parlor in Florida sell. Now. I mean, that's the only difference. And like you said, I I don't have personal experience of this. But I would bet you know, within ten square blocks of where we're sitting there's probably at least half a dozen massage parlours where you, and I could go and get, you know, a happy ending that aren't ever going to get, you know, busted, because it's probably women in there and manner whoever's in there who were there voluntarily or just trying to make a little bit of extra money. I think. Yeah. The real reason that Florida's spending the money to do this is because you literally have, you know, the allegations are people coming in from other countries who are being enslaved. I mean, it's it's human trafficking and. Let's sex trafficking. And I think you're right. I think that really should be the focus of the story. All right. Let's get back to some fight talk you but following any fights lately. But you had any time a little bit not a lot. But I haven't fallen him. Yeah. I will tell you a Conor McGregor. Here's to being a little bit more legal trouble. I don't have a ton on this. But here's what happened Clifton. He was out in believe it was Miami somewhere in Florida once again in his whole family out there. I know that because he was like going through the swamps in the Everglades, and there's alligators involved, and he put some pictures out on social media, but he ends up in a jam. He took somebody cell phone. I don't know. Why yet I guess I bet you get ninety percent there. But take somebody's cell phone and not only they take the cell phone. He smashed the cell phone, and I believe even stopped on the cell phone. Other words, he destroyed somebody's property exceeding five hundred dollars value, and they come in. They they cut them up. I mean is this as simple as yet? Yeah. Annoyed. Me you put something on that cell phone. You recorded me at a time. I didn't watch it whatever it was that. They did. I destroyed your property. I knew cellphone isn't that how this gets handled? Yeah. And I think that at least what I read as he he, you know, broke it on the ground stomped on it. But then he took the cell phone with him to always stole the cell phone. But which I from a legal standpoint, I'm not sure it makes a whole lot of difference. Whether you take the broken cell phone or not I just found that kind of odd. And again, I haven't looked at these statutes, and maybe it does make a big difference. Maybe if he just stops on the cell phone breaks, and it's a misdemeanor, but he took the darn thing. And now, it's a felony. But you know, the interesting thing about that clip. Can I can I stop you right there? Because that's a very interesting point you make. But let me give you a different analogy. I run into your car. I then take your car. The I was an accident or it even could mean, I got I gotta bake it right with your car. I gotta pay for that. I can't do that. But if I take the car, it is certainly does change things. Well, I I think even better analogy here is if you run into my car, and it's your fault, and you get out and we exchange information, we talk and get your driver's license in your insurance. That's an accident your rerun into my car. You drive off all the sudden that's hit rush or does a crime. So in this instance, taking his cell phone and destroying it as a crime by just don't know if then pink broken pieces of the cell phone makes it a a worse crime. And if we were to get into Cotter's mind, I'm guessing here. But I bet you I'm right. The guy videoed something or snapped. If the guy must have done something with the phone where then caught or one of the phone destroyed and subsequently the video could be wrong could be wrong. But that would also then lead to at least explain why. Okay, I broke it. I smashed I stopped the I'm not sure maybe can repair. I'm gonna go ahead and take this thing with me. I think that's probably right. Okay. I'm guessing. And you know, he's not the first person that's gotten in trouble doing. All I mean, I I think can think of at least half a dozen other instances where this exact same situation has happened. And I think in all of them, I think usually. Yeah. The the person who stopped the phone buys the person, a new phone pays a fine and pleads to some, you know, not maybe not even a misdemeanor. Just a, you know, a fine or they really want attention. Right. And then all of a sudden they've got PTSD from the incident and the distress and the animists in the exile of being withheld that cell phone for three hours. I know how silly that sounds? But I mean, that's a real thing juicy Simone when they asked him to give the cell phones. So they could triangulate where he was to get the footage video said that the anxiety. It would cost me to be without my phone for those two hours. I simply can't relinquish to you. That was kinda worse. The Chicago PD they got that's one of the first clues. When when a light went on, wait a minute. What what's happening now we can't borrow your cell phone for two hours. What? Nineteen year old daughter, and and some of her friends, I think it would cause them a lot of anxiety to be without their cell phone for two hours, but an adult human being should be able to go, but from a legal stamp. I'm just saying can that hold up? I don't know what they're going to try to Connor on this. But they did go in arrest and like he was at this house, and they showed like establishing shots of the mansion where Connor was arrested. That's how well Connors named draws right now, you can just take a shot of the mansion that he's allegedly vacationing in and get clicked. But so be it. The point is isn't that overkill lets you pick up a phone go. Hey, you destroy this guy cellphone. Well, I think that running about nine hundred dollars. Yeah. I think probably the had I guess had Conor McGregor. Have you seen the? The godfather. Yeah, you remember, the I think the very first scene of the of the movie where there's photographers outside taking pictures and think Sonny walks out there smashes the camera, and then just peels off, you know, four or five five hundred dollar bills and drops them and walks off had CONNER done that you just smashed a cell phone, and then given the guy two thousand bucks or whatever. Yeah. Maybe he doesn't get arrested. I don't know. But I do think that to some extent the police do have to you can't just let people go running around taking cell phones out of people's hands stopping them and not have reprecussions searcher. And I think I think the real issue here is this is not Connor's first brush with the law and anytime that it's your second or third brush with the law. I it just gets taken a lot more seriously than I mean, it if this was the first time that his he had done something like this. It's probably not it might not be treated the same. In the court of public opinion was is where this will also be tried. Yeah. This is the first time because hey, look, I was with my family, and I was trying to get some alone time in your snap. You know? And I crack here's your new cell phone. He'd probably get away with that the little bit of the irony of this. He just completed as in last week as that I think this is why he was in America in the first place. He just completed his community service. Yes. From the Brooklyn it's debt, which was a cool thing. So all right Conard it blow that off he jumped right on top of it. He filled his obligations on Connor stands back out there. He took some guy self. I didn't know he picked up the phone and walked home. I think he did really must have been something on that phone where he's like the private time. And I'm taking this thing with me. And I don't know how Connor is. And I don't think he's like this just because I've seen pictures of his kid, but you know, some people get really protective of their children and don't want them ever to be photographed. And so I think, you know, sometimes if you're walking out with your family, and people are snapping pictures of you with your kids, you know, people get really upset. Set about that. So, but I don't I don't know. Because I but I've seen Connors kid on social media. So I don't think that that's the issue. But if we were to work this story at again, let's say Conor takes a phone for whatever reason he smashes said phony picks up the phone he walks off. And then he makes a phone call and calls the police departments as this just happened. I felt violated I'm in possession of the phone that I feel violated me. What would you like me to do with it, by the way of already broken it? What are they what do they look at that a little bit better? One of that take the hit and run that you alluded to that takes the hit and run away from it. If you if you're the one that makes the call, correct? Yeah. I think that's right. And and to go even further I think if he just grabs the phone out of the guy's hand. And then immediately picks up his cell phone calls nine one one and says, hey, cops get down here. I've been violated. I've talked to guys phone we're going to delete this video. And then he can have it back then. Yeah. I think it's probably a much different at that point. I think the cop. I mean, could you know, did he technically break the law? Well, yeah. Probably by gra-, you know, either grabbing the guy or grabbing the phone from him when he's you know, shouldn't be doing that. Yeah. He probably he probably broke the law. But I think that's one of those instances where the cops are just gonna go. You know, I'm not going to arrest this guy because he grabbed it he didn't break it. He didn't otherwise assault the victim. And he he called us. And it's all okay, I'm not going to arrest any right now. No, it does seem to be you handle this. I just try to think of it. And I'm and I'm going to wait to deep on this. This is also likely a misdemeanor in any rights check for roughly nine hundred dollars to replace a cell phone. However, if you wanna live in the world of crazy and speculate on this Clifton for Carter to come out and say, I thought it was a weapon as silly as that may sound to you there are documented cases, there was one as recently as last week where two officers shot an unarmed because they saw his cell phone and believed to be a weapon they walked on those charges. So of Connor wanted to come out even in the spirit of let's see who can be sillier than the next one and say. The guy pulled a cell phone. I thought it was a and I went for the weapon, and I've smashing them in possession of it. Now somebody come arrest. This guy cups me looking. No, we just a second. We don't arrest him. You broke the cellphone and he throws his hands up. Goes he had to be kidding me. I thought it was the victim here. He had this thing. I thought it was weapon those things work. It's ridiculous. It maybe a lot of that presentation works. The fact that he went back to the mansion have the cell phone call. Nobody problem, I agree and. And look, I'm not a famous person. And I'm you know, and I and you are famous person, but not as famous as Conor McGregor is no one's going to hotels, you stay out and taking pictures of them because you stayed this year. But man, that's gotta be annoying to have people always wanted to take your picture when you don't want to people always coming up to you for autographs and with him. He is so so much larger than life and puts out this interesting persona. I get I would imagine he gets a lot of people that wanna fight him a lot of people hurling insults at him. I mean, that's gotta get old Jordan. He's also got a short fuse. So I guess it's not that does that condone all this. No. But I'm walking out of a club at three in the morning, and people are taking my picture. It's not gonna make me very happy. And you're never get anybody to shed a tear for a guy who made it to to riches and fame. You're just not going to shed a tear. There is something to what you're saying though, about time and place. I mean, the Cardin. Machines use a name that everybody will recognize they speak on this. They go look we're in California when wearing LA and we're in the thirty mile zone. It's pictures everywhere. And we know we get no privacy. But when we go off somewhere for a family retreat, we do expect people to leave us alone. I think that there is a little elm that for Connor to if he was somewhere in Miami. In a rented house that he brought us whole family to to go through the Everglades for goodness sakes. I mean, the relevance there is he's gonna have seclusion. There's not a lot of people out there with the Gators on a swamp boat. Yeah, I think he did at least in my eyes have a reasonable expectation of privacy and somebody perhaps overstep that maybe and I don't know about this. I think this is a famous nightclub that he was coming out of. And I would imagine that there's generally operatic waiting outside that nightclub or there could be. So I think that adds some color to it to something weird must have happened here. I mean, he just I mean how many hundreds of times a day? Do you think Conor McGregor gets photographed? I either this guy said something did something he wasn't supposed to Connor was doing something. He wasn't supposed to. I mean, something weird happens. You're at least I'm again while wild speculation. But I mean, this can't be the first time Connors had someone take a picture of with with their cell phone. Yeah. That's right. There are a lot of those public guys. I've seen a number of politicians. Some of even good ones go down because something comes out in the politician goes I was in private I was having a private conversation. That was what my friends that wasn't meant for people while I do understand that claim. I also understand history. Well enough to tell you Clifton it never works. Nobody ever sympathizes with them because well, you know, he thought he was alone people use that against you go. So this is what he does when he's alone he puts on a fake persona when he's in front of camera and just trying to tell you regular guy, and I do have a speak that I would use for the public, and I would have a different speak that I may use. When I think, I'm alone with my friends, maybe something like that happened con probably is, and I don't know, and and to some extent, and this is a tough one because you know, I think everybody should have some privacy. But you know, when you when you are as big as Connor is, and you've gotten there, I think the best, you know, the way that he's gotten there through social media through being the, you know, the best talker. The craziest person on the block. I think that this comes with that unfortunate. Sure, you're listening to your welcome with jail Sunan. Don't you hate when you're slow network connection? Turns your streaming quality to just okay, or when you're techs get sent in the wrong order. How 'bout when a drop? Call ruins your conversation, guys. It's the worst. It's time to stop suffering from the fear of glitch in out ditch your glitch for boosts super reliable super fast nationwide network. Get four lines each with unlimited gigs for just a hundred dollars a month, plus get four free phones. That's right. Four free phones all on a network that you can count on visit your nearest boost mobile store and switch today boost makes it easy to switch. Switching makes it easy to save. The only one with breaking news hang around at the end of the podcast for the latest breaking headlines, AP news minute. March madness is upon us. And it's time to place your bets. All right. Let's get to it. Join RJ bell on RJ belts green preview as he helps you fill out your bracket with his expert betting device. Smaller conference action Friday night new playing should be able to get the winning advantage in dominate the brackets by downloading RJ bells dream preview every week on podcast one listen up. You folks out there who listen to this show. I know you're out there training and sweating striving to be the best of what you do. Well, hear me out about our sponsor bio tropic laps. Bio tropics is a premium custom formulation sports supplements company, delivering measurable results to athletes, and to people who move like you guys bio tropic labs, and their flagship formulas are built around blood oxygenation, providing a nitric oxide effect that relaxes the blood vessel walls. This is. Critical for energy and oxygen-carrying red blood cell support these formulas help you achieve a natural lift and recovery and enhance your training making you feel great. And offering that missing edge that you need go right now to WWW dot bio tropic labs dot com, that's bio tropic labs. B I O T R O P I C L A B, S dot com and use the coupon coach at checkout to get twenty percent off of bio tropics flagship in premium products and free shipping and just for listeners of this show anytime returns for one time purchases, plus save even more money. When you choose auto ship, bringing the total discount to thirty percent again that is WWW dot bio tropic labs with an s. Dot com and use the promo code shale at checkout to save twenty percent off flagship and premium products, plus free shipping. Now back to your welcome with jail, son. It I have something I want to be too real fast because I want to get the quote, right? Let me find this. This is from a teddy. Atlas of course, you know, the great teddy atlas, but teddy was speaking about boxing and some of the problems that boxing is having right now. And he was saying if you wanna do boxing, right? You have to do it, and he compared to specifically to the UFC, I think at a larger stroke, he could have just said the way that mixed martial arts is doing it. But he specifically said it to the UFC aren't Clifton. Here's the quote, I'll tell you how to make changes for boxing make it like the UFC get Dana white. It's not happening. But he's a dictator. You know, what dictators usually are not good? But sometimes in some place. Bases. They can be useful. He went on to say, the UFC and the building of that product development, the building and the growing of the UFC, and boy did they grow that was because they have a dictator because the dictator can make all the rules. So there are no separate powers. There's no one sane. We're fighting on a network or our network or the network. This is what we want to do. They have one place one guy laying out the rules. You fight him or you're out. And you know, what he means? Dana white grew the sport. And he grew the product because he can demand competitive fights. That's what you're asking for you want competitive fights that all the fans are asking for he Dana white can do it because he's a dictator. Now. The reason I bring this up. I love everything the teddy saying except that we're dictator only because of the negative connotations that we've seen throughout history of dictators, which always eat is something evil. Let me replace the word dictator and just put in leader. But it is so impose. Portent and is a compliment that teddy is given this big boxing guys. But it's a compliment that he's giving to mixed martial arts. And he's also watching his own sport of boxing, his true love his only light and love the mixed martial arts, but he is truly a box. And he's watching it lose if you will and die on the vine, and he's having problems Clifton with watching different promoters signed different talents. And then not be able to get them together and keeping everybody apart. And he's saying no this isn't right. I'm adding words now I've given the quote, and quote, but I'm going to add to what he's saying. He's talking about these guys that are amassing records of thirty and oh with twenty nine knockouts and not taking on other guys, and he's not competed and not wanting to go out and compete when you're supposed to that's also a big part of it. They want the I need six months here. And I need five months there. I won't do it. And they throw their hands up and it stops everything. And it stops the businesses stops the business of boxing. So just want to get your take on what teddy said. But I would also like to replace one word that teddy us 'cause I know he meant it as a compliment. But I think it comes off wrong. We're going to replace dictator with leader. What he thought I think you could even replace dictator with organization because I think part of the UFC success is. They had at least up until recently, all if not most of the high end talent in MA, and what someone like pride or strikeforce would come and start to get bigger and get some of the better talent. They just buy it. And so the UFC had all of the talent underneath its umbrella and teddy atlas is right. If if you know John Jones should fight jail Sunan than. You know, Dana white just goes to both of you. Hey, you guys need to fight. And you guys say, well, okay. Dana's the boss, and this is the only game in town. So if I want to make money being a mixed martial arts fighter. I better fight. John Jones, you know. So I think that. You know, I do think that data has some unique talents. And I don't think that the UFC would have been as popular without Dana white. But I think the main reason that it was successful is because the UFC for a long time was really the only game in town. I had a very interesting conversation with somebody. I have to leave his name out of it. I know that that can be annoying, but a very powerful guy in the world of television. And we were just having dinner. We're just two guys having dinner looking for thanks to talk about. But he had brought something that was also a couple of to Dana in. He said, you know, what you have to have that any said, so many people don't realize this. And you give me a few examples. He said if you look at tennis right now tennis does not have that we cannot get. Serena to show up and play unless it's called Wimbledon. And he offered me a couple of other names Felder is that a popular name right now Federer he a current player in a popular in. Okay. And he was just using them. By example, and say, it's also a star driven sport. It's not just about getting the ball over the net. He said we really need are stars. And because tennis doesn't have any organization that can say your going to work this many times a year, including this date, whether you like it or not so that we can then promote it and Bill and advertise and he's at tennis's dying. And that their numbers are down. They give me another example. He actually said he went as far as to say tennis wishes that they had somebody like that in charge that this is a tremendous message in a different way of looking at things. But he also compared it this is about two months ago that this conversation happened, but he competitive basketball. And if you remember about two months ago, LeBron hurt his knee, and they showed a cross the board ratings dips of forty percent when the bron- was assured to not take the court. And there was even a theme going around all of sports it happened to be basketball season. But all of sports football was guilty of it as well. This last season we're going to rest guys, we're going to take top guys. And we're going to keep him on the bench for a bigger game. That is in the future. And it was to the point that the commissioners of both sports had to be called by the networks and go this can't happen. You have a team you have promised your team ahead of time via a schedule and via ticketing that already went out to bring your team. So whether it's going to be a good game or a bad game close game or an easy. You need to bring your team. And here's why and showed them the ratings dip of forty percent because one guy LeBron for shore was not gonna play forty percent. And every team in every owner. Both sports has done. No fight. We got it. And again, I think the difference. There is interested you find that interesting. It's very interesting store. And I think again, it's because. There is one league that controls everything in both the NFL and the NBA I think another example of and golf and tennis are similar, and I think the best example of what you're talking about is Tiger Woods when he was in his heyday, you know, he there were there's almost a golf tournament every year or excuse me every week. So there's probably forty PGA tour events, and you know, back when tiger was really playing. Well, I don't think he ever played more than about fifteen or twenty. And so in any event that tiger played in the ratings were off the charts compared to an event the tiger did not plan. And so the, you know, these events would bend over backwards to do anything they could to get Tiger Woods to show up at their event because it meant more ticket sales that are ratings better everything because without tiger only true golf die hard fans cared. When tiger was there. Everybody cared. And and part of the issue is, you know, the PGA tour is an organization association that governs golf, but it doesn't own all the tournaments. It doesn't run all those or individually run. I so it similar to boxing where you've got all these individual promoters. You've got HBO you've got Showtime. You've got all these different areas. And there isn't one person who can heard the cats and say, okay, here's what we're going to do to make the sport as a whole better. And that's what MMA had and still has with Dana white and the UFC in my opinion. It clicked it gets. So tricky so fast doesn't and we see it on a higher level take the sport out of it. And just look at it. It's it's entertainment. We see it on the highest levels. Where Brad Pitt great box office draw Will Smith tremendous box office draw. They don't make very many movies, and it's not because they're so picky in their such artists. And they just want the perfect scripts as they put a lot of money there. Just not motivated the same way. They're just not motivated the same way to come out. Go to work give the students give the fans it's just a reality. Let me say to you like this Scott Coker if he came out today, and he paid everybody on his roster every night, they fought five million dollars. Oh my gosh. Scott coke he'd be the most sought after promoter and everybody would love him in he'd be the nicest guy, ever, clearly all these different things. And guess what else you'd have to add to that list? He'd be out of business because nobody would come back to work. Nobody would he would lose incentive. And we incentivize in America. We give people bonuses. We give them encouragement. We give them overtime pay. This is a very real thing. So you start to run into that. Balance of when businesses so good by the promoter. How much are they giving back to everybody else? And you hear this talked about all the time. It's a very tough one verbally to discuss. Because the other side of that coin is the example that I just gave to you Scott Coker paint every single athlete every single night five million dollars. He will not have anybody that. Wants to compete within a year. And if you need a recent example, I was simply submit you Conor McGregor exactly ever since he had the payday with Floyd. He went into another big payday, even though he presented it as a personal personal beef. It was a tremendous payday. He hasn't been back to work sense. I don't fault him for. I just offer for you, natural human emotion. And there is a real balance. It has to be made there by the decision maker. And it will often be looked at as he's holding people down, and that's inaccurate. But it is tough to verbalize. It's tough for me to verbalize. But I think you get my point one it's interesting because in the Conor McGregor situation. Dana white came out and said that I mean, I remember watching an interview with Dana white where people were all over Dan at Dana. When is Connor gonna fight next? Dana win, what can you do to get Connor back and Dana said look Connor made so much money fighting Floyd Mayweather, he doesn't ever have to work again, even his spending habits. He's not gonna burn through all that money. So what am I going to do to get him to go through his, you know, two three month training camp cut, the weight get in the gym everyday, and then go walk out, and you know, and get in a fistfight. I mean, even guys who I think Conor McGregor probably really enjoys getting in fistfights at some point. That's gotta get a little old. Yeah. No. Apparently that seems to be the thing even if you were to take the combat element out of it and go back to the tennis example, I gave you there's apparently Serena and Felder Federer fetter. Apparently, they don't want to play. They're not hungry for that competition. I imagine they were in their youth. When is the next game wins the next term? Where's the next trophy wins? The next Pat on my back from from dad or coach or mom or whoever it is in their inner circle. But sometimes that does go away. There seems to be a really weird balancer. I bring this up to you. And I'm going I'm kind of paying this ball around. But I just wanted your take on it. But I'm looking at the NCWA, right? We got March madness coming up. I'm a wrestling fan. We got the NCW tournament coming up in a couple of weekends cliff. Those guys would in those gals. Those athletes would never miss a competition. Whether it was a hard day or an easy game. Whether it's going to sell out an arena, or it was just your local friends popping over to support you. They would never miss the competition. They urine for it. They crave it. They beg to be in those and there's no money involved and for most of them, there's no Famer attention involved. It's this purist. And is about the competition in somewhere over time that goes away, the NCWA who man, and there are very respected included by me sports body in this country. They're never dirty for the way, they spread the money around because they're very upfront to say, we aren't we aren't spreading it around or keeping it all, but we're going to give you an opportunity, and we will be here next for some reason professional sports, and you could talk about you can get in the same car and you can crash week after week. But for some reason a professional sports where they go. No, we are going to share the money. We are going to spread this around, you instantly. Then come to the naysayers go you. Didn't spread enough, and that's tough. Right. It's a tough balance. And it's interesting that you bring up the March madness. And you know, people doing this for free. Have you heard of Zion? Williamson yoke course. Well, did you see he got hurt a couple of weeks ago? And he literally blew out his shoe. He is so big and so strong. He went and stepped and he absolutely exploded a shoe when he hurt his knee, thirty three seconds. Barack Obama was there. Yes you discipline. How big of a game? He was there. And so he hasn't played. But it he's he's about ready to come back and start planning he's healed up. But he by all accounts, he will be the number one pick in the NCAA draft. No matter what. And there were a lot of people, including former professional athletes that came out and said he should never stepped on an NCAA basketball court again because if he blows out his knee. It could cost him tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. If it's a bad enough. Injury. And he's not getting paid by the NCAA. They don't he doesn't. Oh, them anything. He should just not play. But I think he is going to play mostly because of the reasons that you brought out as he's a really competitive guy. He came to Duke because he wants to win an NCAA championship. And he's just going to go out and do that all and it's I think it's a little bit different in in basketball because that was kind of a freak injury. And chances if you really getting hurt are probably not that high, but the NFL and things like that your chance of getting hurt is much much higher. When you go out and compete than it is probably playing basketball, if they're real thing, very real thing. Well, I come to with the argument of you need to step out there and you need to play because a promise was made. I come to you from you have fans, you presold tickets, and those coaches promised to bring their team they need to bring their team. I can remember back to being a little kid in one thousand nine hundred eighty nine and what you're talking about the balls, but the bulls. They were the the bulls were talking about you're talking about Pippen. You're talking about Jordan. You're talking about Phil Knight run the team they come to Portland important wasn't that big of a deal, but Clinton ice swear to goodness if Jordan Pippen had not stepped on the rotten moon. Rodman was crazy. But he was still something to see that would have been a very unfair thing to do. We are people good hardworking oregonians took the time off and told their son. I'm going to take you to the game tonight. We're going to watch Jordan play and dad worked hard, and and got the money and bought the tickets that would have been a very unfair thing to do all the way back in one thousand nine hundred and nine I would still harbor grudge against it. And I hardly a grudge against it. When coaches do it to this day with us. The professionals are the NCWA's if you promise to bring your team God it bring your team. And I know what people are saying, I think designs of finding sample, and I do get the business side of that. But there are elements for that. Should he want to go into the draft and take himself out of the NCWA, which means he gives up the scholarship, which is a full ride at some other athlete can get it. Which means there's not a misrepresentation made to the fans or the networks. Or anybody else buying jerseys buying popcorn or coming out to see him play? I come to you from that standpoint. And it's much as I say it is though, I'm right? And I am right. If you choose to look at it that way, but if you chose to look at it of what is best for on. And the fact that he may not get signed and the commodity that he brings to the table that is going to become equitable is his body. And he's got the right to take care of his. But I hear you on that too. But I'm at what point do you want to wrap the kid and cotton, and at what point do you wanna say get on with it? It's interesting because you know, there were a lot of former players that said he should never play. Again, there were probably just as many former players that said the exact same thing you did. Well, of course, they should go play. If he's all of them said look if he's not healthy don't play. But if he's healthy get out there and play, of course, she would. Now, the difference that you bring up the, you know, the bulls and come into Portland to play. I think that's a much much different situation because those guys are being paid millions of dollars to play. And I think when you're getting paid millions of dollars to come. Come and play. You do have an obligation. I mean. Yeah. On getting a scholarship to do. I, you know, but he's getting a fifty thousand dollars scholarship and he's bringing in. I think the March madness makes you know over billion dollars each year. It some insane amount of money fifty thousand dollars is not an equitable amount to pay him for what he's bringing to the table. So that would be my only quibble with what you said. But I agree with you. If you've you at the way that you've you it then. Yeah, you're right. But not everybody views it that way in various interesting, though, based on what you just said the NC of lay yet somehow keeps their hands clean, and they do with me too. I got no, I'm not giving you a back into couple to the NC double. I also like the instability. I also value them. I also had great memories with them. And I also respect and entrust them as a governing body, but for some reason their hands stay clean on what they do with that a massive kitty. They're building up when the professional guys were sharing this. We're spreading this. We're doing contracts and the we're honoring contra. And then we're giving bonuses on top of all of that always end up being on the wrong side of it. I just think that part is a little bit fascinating piece of human psychology non idea, and I guess my my thought to you would be and I don't mean any disrespect to wrestling. But. You know, you guys weren't selling out arenas. You guys weren't on TV every weekend. You didn't have national audiences dyin to look and see what you were doing. Do you think that had you been Zion Williamson or Marcus mariota on the football team and the university of Oregon was making millions and millions and millions of dollars based upon your athletic events, and your achievements in what you were doing would that have changed your view on the fact that you were getting a ten thousand dollar scholarship to the university of Oregon, and you're you're not the only one to bring that up. I'll bring it up in a different. It's what you just said. But in a different way as you're seeing a lot of the women's team, by example that are now coming out and saying equal pay for equal job. Whether it's within coaching, but to your point the universities kind of looking around going, you got eight hundred people in the crowd and the men are sold out until two thousand and twenty. So it is it is a little bit interesting because no I never did look at it that way, but largely because I was. Ever in a position to your right? We brought in no money when I was wrestling to give you an exact number. We were a loss for the school of six hundred sixty thousand dollars a year. That's what they lost our football team. And our men's basketball team university of Oregon back when I was they had to cover the spread for all the rest of us. But that argument has been made. And you're right. I wasn't on that side of it. I did come from more of the the poor man's sport. Where you're just happy to be out there people to participate. But either way once those schedules were put out whether it was for eighty fans or football's eighty thousand fans if the coach says he's going to bring his team any agreed to a schedule in my opinion. He needs to bring that team. Well, I, and I I believe you when you say this mostly because you've taken that same stance as a professional fighter that, you know, when you sign your name to the card, you're going out there, and you're gonna fight and you haven't missed a I mean, have you ever had to can't? I mean, I shouldn't even say this, you know, knock on wood. You know? I mean when you when you go when you say, you're. Going to go you go out. I go fight. And that's another interesting. We were talking about Dana white how many becuse get your thoughts on this. How many interim championships are we gonna have in the UFC? If a guy can't fight for like, six minutes, who's the champion? Dana white is issuing an interim championship belt doesn't that kind of water down being a champion? I mean what I get it that he wants to have title fights. And sometimes guys are getting hurt left and right and don't fight for two years. But I mean isn't getting a little bit ridiculous. Now, why certainly would not argue with you. That is up for the fan at aside. You are a fan, you get your opinion. I'm not sure Dana would disagree with you. I mean, look, I think his idea of the interim, and I'm only going back to when this very first start one of the first guys to ever get an interim belt possibly the only gun is the right at the top of my head was Shane carwin rock Leser was out something that happened carwin had to go in fight. He was one of the first if not the very first, and then it's like, look, here's we're going to solve this problem. With Brock comes back. You're fighting Carwyn. And then it was kind of a cool moment. We're both guys are walking out with a bell. Now. Both guys are arguing who's belt who really has you had this really fun. And organic dialog that over time if you want to use the term watered down, I certainly wouldn't push back. I like the belts because I think they're so limited opportunity to ever get to become champion like opportunity. I love that. They added weight classes, I love that. They added genders and I loved it. They had it in term because of opportunity, but to your questions specifically setting that aside saying does it water it down. It's a fair term by you. That's very fair. I'm waiting for the situation here where saw the champion fights gets his title and then blows out his ACL and his out for a year. And then, you know, two months later, they have an interim championship someone wins. The interim championship blows out his ACL freer. And all of a sudden, then there's a third interim championship Bill, and you've got three belts. I I'm guessing what Dana white would do. He'd either strip one of the title. So he didn't have three belts out there. But at some point, I mean championships gotta means something what a predictable. Why I hear you on that? It'd have to champions is kind of popping right junkie. It's kind of impossible. I hear you on that what I've always thought that they should do cliff. If you remember the the original day of UFC, they used to have a super fight. So it was not it wasn't a linear title. I win the super fight. That's not a title that. I now need to defend like if you and I think compete, my super fight title isn't on the line unless the promotion decides this is for the supervisor. But it wouldn't be a linear belt. It would just be a one offer that night. I think that serves the marketing purpose. I also think that there's something very prestigious. I'm in Abu Dhabi right now. It only goes once every two years, but they do that they have a super fight. In addition to seems to work people take a lot of prestige if they take a lot of credit works with the fans. There's no Tom foolery because it does feel like a little bit of we're getting the rug pulled out from under us with the interim. I do agree with you on that. I think you solve that problem. If you want to go back to the super fight if I was to even further, and that would be that would be my one and only picking suggestion if I was to. Submit how how I wanted to see this handle to go bit further for conversation, and maybe a little bit less practical. But if you refer back to the WWE model, you know, they used to have what was called the intercontinental champion now. Nobody knew what in the hell that met. They just knew that was the second best belt that you could have they knew that that was right under hall Cogan title and in other arrests. And I think it was NWF, but they would have what was called the US champion. And there is something to that. If you did have the now a company that does international business simply does not want to break it down into territories. But I think there is something special if you had the resilience champion or you have the American champion or you had the intercontinental champion, and we never defined what in the hell it even means. There's ways to get belts out there and titles if you want to do them linear, but there's also a way if you're just looking for a marketing tool and something very prestigious just cap off in evening known as the super fight the end, I think some of what an ego. Could talk to this more than I could. But I think some of the reason that Dana white probably went to these. Interim championships two is because up until a couple years ago. You could only have five round fights in championship contests. Correct grech. So if you had two guys that you really wanted to watch fight for twenty five minutes, and neither one of them were champions back then you had to create a championship. So then they could fight five rounds. And some of these guys you really wanna watch fight five rounds and not and not three. And so I think that was I'm guessing that was probably part of it too. Which now isn't an issue because aren't Allman events five rounds now or in the UFC they ever not mixed martial arts as full. I mean, that's not a commission issued by the now. Right. But the commission now allows you to have. Yeah. Round fights. Thinking back to win George Saint Pierre and BJ Penn fought and it was only three rounds. I mean, it would have been fun to have that be a five round four even though neither one of them were champion. So. It's just I don't know personally. I like the five around fights a lot better is very one one thing that I find is. We talk the MA business and industry Clifton to tell me if you're right. We can identify several things that appear to be a ha Gotcha flaw in the business, but it's very tough to then talk out the possible solution to that fly. I mean, if people would just agree, and I know people love mixed martial arts. But I find even our own fans. Happy to bad mouth at times. It's like guys, let's not let's not forget the overwhelming policy. Whatever go to conversations is this is a new sport. Nobody even at the highest levels of leadership is pretending. It's done. We're working on it. That's fair. We're working on it. But like anything it takes a little bit of time. Well, and I think that I think the other thing you've got to keep in mind is go back to teddy. Atlas comments as many flaws as you can point out in MMA compare it to boxing joy. I mean, it is still light years ahead of. Where boxing is it's thriving boxing's dying. They're both combat sports, and you know, boxing has head a much longer history in really should have been the one that that is doing better than MMA. But it's not and again, it's because you know, the UFC Dana white, Scott Coker, you know, people are doing it, right? Or at least as right as it can be done or we'll set you don't really well. Let's get out of here on that. Do you have any final thoughts? No, thanks for having me his whole schools dreams. Top-secret info anything that you wanna share with half a million people, not not every car comes with its share a stories that ding in your bumper. When you nervously picked up your first date or the mileage say by riding your bike all summer what you can't put a price tag on your stories now with truecar you can at least find out what your car is worth. When it's time to sell or trade it in just go to truecar simply enter your license plate numbers and watch. How your car's details? Pop up then. Just answer a few questions navigation moon roof, high mileage, you already knew it was gonna cost you. But now you'll know how much of a hit it's going to be. So you can plan ahead when you're finished. You will get a true cash offer sent you in minutes, which you can take to a local certified dealer to cash out or trade in. So when you're ready to experience a better way to sell or trade in your car, check out truecar today. 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Extra: Domonique Foxworth Full Interview

Freakonomics

1:31:23 hr | 1 year ago

Extra: Domonique Foxworth Full Interview

"Freakonomics radio is supported by progressive insurance. The data don't lie customers. Save an average of six hundred sixty eight dollars when they switch and save and when you bundle home and auto with progressive, you can save even more get your car insurance quote online in about six minutes. Visit progressive dot com today. Freakonomics radio is sponsored by campaign, monitor over half of all marketers say they haven't set up automated, Email campaigns. Well, not only are automated emails timely and relevant. They can generate seventy percent higher. Open rates and over one hundred percent higher click through rates. That's why campaign monitor offers an Email marketing platform with automation, tools that are easy enough for any marketer to start using today. So what are you waiting for start sending automated emails with campaign monitor and start driving more revenue for your brand? Try it out for free at campaign, monitor dot com slash freak. Hey there. I'm Steven dubner in this is a freakonomics radio. Extra. Our full interview with Dominic Foxworth who appeared in bits and pieces in our hidden inside of sports series. I've known Foxworth for a while. Now, he's one of the most thoughtful athletes I've ever encountered. But this conversation surpassed, my Artie, high expectations not just for his thoughtfulness, but his willingness to wrestle with contradiction and his hardcore candor as you'll hear in this episode Foxworth wasn't NFL player for several years then served as president of the NFL players union. And after getting an MBA from Harvard was the CEO of the NBA players. It turns out he didn't like that job too much. You'll hear why as our conversation begins Foxworth is talking about his belief that the professional sports players unions should be dissolved. I asked why. Yeah, I think that where we are. With with professional athletes, and how big a business it's gotten in how well they are compensated. I think is is a product of sacrifices made by players coming up and many players loss long seasons were black bought out of the league and and had their careers really torn apart by the their ambitions of free agency and pensions and all those things and they never really got to fully reap the benefits from that. And I think back in those days, the the unions the player unions were a lot like when we think of as traditional labor unions. But I think we've gotten to a point now where it's not like that. And with the the length of a player's career and how much money they could stand to make in a season. It's really not in their best interests like mathematically logically. If you go through the numbers, it's not in their best interest to actually withstand a lockout or to initiate a. Strike. They will not make that money back. Like, it's just physically impossible. The reason why they would do it is to. Further the cause I guess for players and a future. But since you can't kind of hand your position down to your son or daughter, then it really doesn't seem to make sense. So for me, I can use me as an example. I sacrifice from the time. I was I don't know. Probably in high school is when I started to forgo other opportunities or other decisions to focus more on football than I'm in college. And I wanted to be a computer a, computer graphics and computer science and high school, and then in college I wanted to be a computer science major at university of Maryland, and Mike and Mike advisor was like though that that costlo is going to make it very difficult for you to make a top practices their labs, and blah, blah, blah, blah. So I was like no not gonna do that during the summers when there's so in. So instead, you did was it American standard American studies, which I end journalism, right and journalism, which is shows how easy what I do is that you could do it and another major while playing ball. But anyway, go ahead. I I enjoyed those. And it was it was good. But it wasn't what I wanted to do. And then the summers when when people were getting internships, or whatever I was. Working out and getting ready for football. And I say all that to say once I got to the league, then I got drafted and I was in the third round. So that's it's money. It's good money. But it's not life changing money. It doesn't. And I it doesn't make up for all the things that you've given up through the course of your life. And then I come up on free agency. And that's when I got a pretty nice deal. I can't. Yeah. I can't imagine. If somebody was like, no, you gotta sit out right now. And then when you think about it, it's it's competition, obviously because you are competing in this lockout or or strike with the owners. Whereas it does make sense for them to withstand a lockout because they own their teams into perpetuity. So if they if they win a lockout for a tenth of percentage point or even a whole percentage point of revenue split that is something that will maybe three million dollars a franchise for this season. And it'll go up as things grow, and it goes on and on and on. So if you are in the kind of. Old fashioned mindset of labor strikes is the only way to get anything. You are players in all sports us officially mismatched. It's interesting to hear you say, though, that that would be the reason to maybe not have players unions because you know, a lock out or strike. I guess lot walkout is what the owners do a strike is what the players can do a strike, even the strike threat is rarely is pretty rare like once every whatever five to ten years, depending on when a given unions collective bargaining agreement is up, right? So so you I know you were playing football in the NFL when the lockout happened that was like two thousand eleven or twelve must've been somewhere in there. Right. And I know that the NFL players association was basically telling you guys put away as much money as you can. And maybe you might want to switch to, you know, regular gas or unleaded all this stuff. Just talk about that experience. I was heavily involved. And then. Goshi -ation. So I remember that. And I remember trying to get all the players ready. But the fact that the matter is the players are severely outmatched. If you're going to try to match up with money with owners, like we're not going to be able to outlast how long they can go without making money as far as influence on the media. They have that also. And so the the kind of kind of trying to fight them in that traditional way, you're destined for failure would seem so the point of decertification is as long as we have a union we have to agree over collective bargaining once you dissolve the union than you expose the league to any trust law, which frankly the NFL existed for several years, very lucrative Lee for the players without a union and the league was exposed to any trust law. It that's what precipitated a free agency and football. And the only reason why the NFL players association was reconstituted was because the NFL made it a stipulation of the settlement like you must reform union to allow us. To operate as a legal cartel slash monopoly. And so that's the only reason why we exist, frankly. And I was the president of the union. I was the c o of the NBA players union for a time. And I recognize the union provides a great deal of value. But I think frankly that protection is more value to the leagues and it's to the player. So like in the whatever job anyone hasn't your job? They can't institute a salary cap. Like, they they can't do a draft and say like, hey, all the doctors that graduate this year. We're going to draft you too and tell you where you go like you have some say in those things because they are forced to abide by the regular laws that everyone else abide by so regular labor laws provisions. Wow. So how would you have the scenario? Look, I mean the release different. But obviously the college football is weird unpaid high risk. I mean, that's a whole other financial ecosystem. Why don't we just start with talking about how NCW football works as a feeder system for the NFL? And what that does four or to the athletes. I think we're at a point now where most people kind of understand that college sports is professional sports. And and and and select cases, so obviously, the vast majority of college sports are not professional sports, but the two kind of big money sports and the power five conferences, they generate a substantial amount of revenue and that revenue goes to lots of people who are not the labor. So it goes through supporting other sports. It goes to building bigger and better facilities that goes to paying college presidents, and coaches and funding the NC double A like it goes a lot of different places. But it doesn't go to to the people who are the labor on the field and. I think another thing that complicates that. It would be. It would be a problem. If that was the end of the story in every player, then went on to have NFL careers, it'll be unfair. But whatever like, it's you're not gonna lose any sleep for those guys. But the vast majority of the guys and I have several teammates who because it is not considered work. They're not privy to workers compensation. They're not privy to extend it healthcare. So I've a few teammates who tornado yells separated shoulders torn lay rooms and hips in shoulders, lots of injuries that one of my best friends in college things a few years ago. His doctor told him that he was going to have to have both of his knees replaced by the time. He was fifty. And he didn't play professional sports. He had three knee surgeries while in college. And there's nothing that any college football team or or governing body is going to do for him in that case. I that to me is is tragic that a lot of people benefited from that and again he had aspirations to play professional football. So while he was in college. He made all the decisions that people who have those aspirations do or you don't necessarily go after the major that you're most interested in or the major that's gonna lead to a career. You have two major that's going to allow you to focus on on. What's most important, which is sports, unfortunately? And I know many people would say that maybe that shouldn't be so important, but it's hard when that carrots out there, it's hard to convince somebody to to try to balance and try to do both things. Well, when it's like, no, I need to do as well as I can at this because this is like a life changing opportunity, like not just your life. But. Generational shifting opportunity. And you have a chance I didn't. And someone's going to tell you know, how about you don't go do that summer work out. That's going to get you closer to how about you take an internship or something or how about you do take that tougher major. You're gonna miss a few practices. The coaches may not start you. And it'll stunt your development like that just doesn't make sense. So the old fashioned argument for why this was okay, why it was acceptable. Was that? Well, you know, this is like what communists call a tournament model. Right. Whenever you got a lot of people competing for the top of the pyramid. Whether it's show business or sports, or whatever, you know, the bottom of the pyramid. There's lots and lots and lots and lots of people they're willing to do whatever it takes for practically no money. It's kind of weird unpaid apprenticeship, and I guess some people accept that as okay, others don't. But I think what strikes me that's especially noteworthy about sports is the degree and man. A to sacrifice physical and otherwise is larger I would argue than trying to become an actor trying to become a writer try and whatnot. So can you just talk about that component of it a little bit more? And what you think would be a better solution. I think bringing up the tournament model is is interesting because I could understand how some people would look at that and say that it fits here. And that's why this is fair. But I think as a country we've decided that that wasn't fair a long time ago. I that's not their plenty of jobs where that's true like just about every job was like. The barista at Starbucks like there are plenty of people out there who are capable of being baristas, and you could probably allow Starbucks to to pit them against each other negotiate down down down down down. But that's not the case, we've instituted minimum wages in instituted lots of other laws to protect American people or American workers from these type of capitalistic urges Runamuck. And the the thing that's frustrating to me is we've instituted roles in professional sports that happened to take place on college campuses, we instituted roles that are to the advantages of institutions, but we are not interested in instituting any rules that are that are things that we accept as just kind of. Faxon fair there you'll you'll be hard pressed to find anyone in our society. That's like, Nope less. Eliminate the minimum wage in an allow this this tournament model to to run them up for for low wage workers. Right. Well, the other argument though, in colleges is again, this may be a purely specious argument from your perspective may be partially species. But the other argument is wait a minute free education for years of college. What's that worth? So there's two major issues that jump out for me from the education. The players are brought to the school because of their athletic prowess. There are many players who I've been around. And I know that we're not prepared to benefit. So what they're receiving is steps ten eleven and twelve when what they're building on is steps one two and three if that makes any sense. So that education, frankly is worthless to them they're then they're trying to get eligible and then. There's the other like people who show up who are prepared like me, and like other people that then make all these decisions because you're not you're not even getting the same education as the people around you because you have to travel on Thursdays, and Fridays, and you are not allowed to do certain majors because they conflict with your schedule and three times a week during the winter session or the the spring session, you have to go to five AM workouts. And and that changes your academic experience. I it's they're all these things that are mandatory because you're scholarship is year to year, and you don't have any power to negotiate with your coach and say things like I I wanna take this. So I'm not gonna be able to go there. That's just not a thing that that is available. So the the education that they're receiving is not the education that people think it is. Right. And so this is a gigantic question. And it's a it's a it's such a big industry already that there. Obviously, no, easy quick solution that would satisfy even close to everybody, but what kind of solution or solutions? Do you think are most viable that? Would let's say keep big time college sports intact in a way that the market would need them to be intact. Other words, there's massive audiences out there that really like it, but all those dollars as you've noted don't flow to the people actually produce a labor. So what would be a way to Aquilla -brate that a little bit or make more people less unhappy, at least their thing that frustrates me about that conversation is always you're always asked to to add something to change a rule to fix it. Whereas I feel like we should blow it up altogether and follow frankly, the model that this country is followed up until now is that you you strive for a free market. And then you institute roles to make it fairer. So I think that's where we should go. Like, let's. Not try to add a rule or or provide a stipend for players know, let the let the schools go after these players the same way anyone else would go after any other employees. And then if we notice that their issues along the way, then we can add rules to to fix those. I think trying to inch our way back is not the way to to get to the fairest possible system, if you were going to blow up the system, would you even connect that kind of pre professional sports league, the meaning college would you even connect that to universities at all? It was at an accident of history. That is the root of the problem, essentially. I mean, I think it's definitely an accident of history. Like, I I know you and your son are our big soccer footie fans. Then call it soccer. That's that's that's not the that's not the model that they follow. It's not. I mean, this is a purely American model this college athletics being feeder system to professional athletics. And it's probably not probably it is more unnatural. I would think then then these other systems. So I understand that it is the way that I countries developed, and I I mean, I understand the law of being connected to a college that you went to college grew up around. And I'm not saying that you do that you have to dissolve that all all together you can allow them to. I mean, many of the obviously, they are nonprofit organizations, but they understand how to exist in a four profit environment. Like, they do go after different professors, and and they negotiate over those terms like this is something that they are accustomed to they negotiate with coaches like they don't have to go that far with their coaches, and assistant coaches, they understand how the free market works. So JIMBO Fisher is a good example of of it. He was the coach at Florida state. He brought him a national championship and then Texas A and M offered him a better situation, and he up and left and then Florida state win got Willie Taggart from Oregon like this is not. While they want to pretend it is completely pure system. Like, they know how this works in every other year, Alabama has to pay Nick Sabin a little bit more to to keep him at the top of the list. Like, this is not something that that is brand new to them. I don't see why it's any different from from going into kids living room, and and saying, well, we want you to come here. We can offer you x y and z, but it just I think it makes people feel uncomfortable. But there's nothing wrong with it. So it's interesting correct me if I'm wrong, I'm probably am. But it seems like there's a weird paradox. Here you're calling for the decertification of the blowing up of professional sports players unions because you feel like they don't really work well in the work in the interest of the athletes who need to kind of make their make their money now careers being so short, but it sounds like college athletes have zero collective representation and that union for them might actually deuce. I'm good or do you think that's not a solution? No. I think they've tried and failed remote Houma at one point was leading that effort and it hasn't worked. But I do think that that them having a seat at the table with some leverage would be helpful because anytime you have. And this is what's happened for in college force for a long time. Now is you have a bunch of people in a room kind of setting up the parameters of of the game. But there's one group there's only one group that's not allowed in that room. And of course, that like it's just human nature that group is going to be the group that is perpetually slighted. So I think that college athletes are in a different space than professional athletes. So having a union if the college athletes could organize to the point where they would just stop showing up to two games, and that's an impossible thing to ask them. Because again, it goes back to this like this is my one chance, but if they were able to at least threaten that I think that's. How they could get some significant change. So given the history and the dollars and the emotions that are attached to college sports overall, how likely do you see any kind of substantial evolutionary change even in the next ten or twenty years? I mean, it's. It's clear that the pinion public is shifting towards wanting athletes to be fairly compensated. But I don't know that they're gonna stop watching. So I don't know where the pressure come from. Honestly, I think we're already at a majority of society, I think it's different across age and and racial demographics. But there will come appoint, particularly as some young people get older, we're all adults believe an except that college athletes should be paid. But this ties in to the union conversation. What is going to force them to act in the same way that a lock out or strike is not necessarily going to force owners to act in the same way that I think anti-trusts or any trust exposure would force the MAC, I think this is true here too is like I do think if the players if collegiate athletes just. Stop showing up to two big time games and tournaments that would force them to act, but I don't see them doing it because they only are only four years of eligibility, which means they only have four years to to show professional teams that they're that. They're good enough to play. So it's kind of again, not in their interest to do that. The only other thing is if the if the public stop watching because of it, and I don't necessarily see that happening. So I'm not sure how we get to this point. I think the other thing that's tricky is that the guys with the least incentive to change it or the ones for whom the system works, which is to say the stars in the system. Right. If you're if you really think that that being a college athlete whether in basketball for one year football for three or four years that you are gonna have federal career. You don't want to rock the boat because you're there now. So I don't see how they would have an incentive to even pretend to want to change the you. I mean, I think these you Lincoln these two are is very important because pretty accurate. Isn't in their best interest? Those guys who are on the doorsteps of having professional careers is not really in their best interest to to to stop this now. And I think you also bring into account the people who are benefiting most from it who are not on the field. Like, there's really no benefit to the coaches who because coaches salaries are inflated because they have extra money because they are not sending it to the players and the rest of the the teams who are funded by money generated by football and basketball. There's no incentive there. There's just athletes who don't have much power. It is interesting that in the NFL coach might make a quarter or maybe even a tenth of what is top star players making right? But in college, you make infinitely more because you know, they're all getting zero. If I were to think of someone who could try to get in there and nab. Gate diplomatically and also bus skulls. And who knows what they're talking about. I think you're the guy actually because first of all you've been a professional football player. You're also president of the players union the NFL. But then you're the only person I know of at all correct me if I'm wrong, the only person, I know who's ever been associated with the NFL and the NBA is the chief operating officer the NBA players union. Correct. So you've got the two major college sports, you've got those credentials, right? You also happen to have an MBA from Harvard. Yes. That's the thing. That's the thing. So am I wrong to think that you sometimes do think about being the person to try to go downstream from pro sports and into college and say, hey, if you actually want to treat people properly the place to do it is here, and yes, we do need to blow up the system. I don't. Honestly, maybe that's like yelling about unfairness from the sidelines and not necessarily getting involved. Maybe that's the wrong way to go about it. But I don't know. I think it's a I agree with you. It's not complicated. But I do think it's complex, and I think that can be kind of intimidating and. I don't know the way, and I you you brought a business school one of the things we in the entrepreneurship classes that I took their talk a lot about how little people know about what their business is going to become and how many times it pivots in changes. And how not knowing what you're going to do is. Okay. As like, you kind of bet on on the person more. So than the idea, you bet at the personal figure it out like I don't have any clue honestly where to start with this. And I think that's more intimidating. I would feel like I feel. Pretty close to like eighty five percent confident about the idea that unions should decertify professional sports because I fully understand that I've been through this. And I know that if they operate as trade associations, they can still provide a lot of the services to players that players give from the union, and it doesn't really hurt them. The scary part is maybe you no longer have a league minimum for players. And that creates the tournament thing that you're talking about. I understand the ins and outs. I understand that in a way that I don't understand the landscape of of college sports. And yeah. Yeah. I guess I just look at it as a thought experiment, if you could take someone that doesn't know anything about sports at all and say, hey, what if we have the system where workers are going to perform a set of tasks, you know, and let's say fifty hours a week for four years at this place, and then they're going to perform essentially, the same set of tasks in a different place. And in each case, you know, eighty thousand people come and watch him and millions more watch them on TV. But in one case, they get paid. Let's say an average salary of whatever to three million dollars a year and the other they get paid zero. And they're the same people. How in what universe? Does that make any sense? That's you know, that's kind of the thought experiment that I think would lead to a reassessment that you know. That's the thing is like. Another thing that I've come to learn in professional life, as that logic is useless and some patients, so like the the thought experiment that you just took me through as a wonderful one that proves the example, but people don't act based on thought experience, they act in in reaction to incentives in pressure and those sorts of things. So I think some a couple of things that we talked about, and I think creating a 'nother place creating real competition because the fact that they are a monopoly now. Meaning that they can that's the only place you can go that exists in part because of the unions, both professional football and basketball so basketball forces the players to be one year removed from from high school before they can interleague which forced to them to then find an alternative, maybe they can go overseas. But if they want to stay in America, they have to play college basketball football is three years removed, and there is no real viable professional football. Leagues. Elsewhere. So you kinda have to go to college. I think what the NBA is doing now with the D league. And they've started something called a junior NBA is I think they're kind of building that infrastructure whether intentionally or not surly building an infrastructure to create a kademi system that is an alternative to college athletics. And I know they've discussed the idea and there probably are going to remove the one and done rule in the next CVA. And I think that some players will start going straight into these NBA academies or into these delete teams rather than going to college, and that might change the system in football. I don't think they that. There is much hope to change that anytime soon, I guess, maybe if basketball changes then football has to change will what's to stop me, let Sam an entrepreneur. And I say, you know, the NFL players association, which is a sworn enemy of the NFL in many cases in many instances. But they're also colluding with them to basically, get free labor for three or four years from all. These athletes what stopped me from saying. Well, why don't I work up an alternative, and I will create some kind of league that is pre professional that would satisfy the the the NFL draft rules. I guess on the other hand they can change those rules. It will and put me out of business on day one. I guess right. Right. I mean, I think they could. But I don't think they would. I think the the major problem is network effects. You need to have a critical mass of the best players for for the other best players to come because the guys need to hone their skills, and they need their skills to be matched up against other players. So that you can know so I think maybe for basketball, it's it might be a little different because it seems to be that often they pick out those guys early on. And they and they turn out to be really good. But with football if you get the top fifty players top fifty incoming freshmen to go build a league with you. Which I think is would be really hard to do. But if you do that that's still not even close to enough you need them. And it's again basketball everyone kind of plays the same position. Everyone blocks shoots jumps plays defense football. It's like oh. So we gotta get it just seems like a really hard thing to do to build a real alternative. Right. Well, let me ask you this. So the alternative to this like the purely cutthroat capitalist version is like the academy model that soccer clubs around the world practice. Right. And and they're you've often got kids very young kids, sometimes really eight nine ten, but usually, you know, eleven twelve early teens going into academies, and basically becoming sort of unpaid professionals, although not fully unpaid. And so like that is an alternative, but a if you don't make it into the professional level, which the vast majority numbers being what they are won't. Then you have a weird. You've been removed from mainstream education and whatnot for a long time. But also like I look at the flip side, you as an athlete, and as a student like you may think it would have been better for you to have had the choice between professional sports and a career that was not sports. But on the other hand, you went to college and played sports. They kind of went together. And then even though you say the system is not optimal for anyone. And certainly not for you. You graduated from Maryland you played in the NFL yet union position than in the NBA as well. And then you got a Harvard MBA. So I could look at that and say man, I'm really glad that Dominic Foxworth was not sent to a football academy at age thirteen to become semi-professional. So now, maybe you're just an outlier, but who knows? So I mean, Jay z sold drugs Rupp in MARCY projects to. Single mother. Now, he is a multi multimillionaire, married to beyond say, the most amazing talent we have in today. So why don't we set it up? So that all young men must sell drugs when their kids and have only their mother and grow up in MARCY projects in Brooklyn, New York. Like, he had a great talent. And to be honest, like there's probably a a great deal of lock like in he'll speak to that. And that he happened to not be there when his friends got arrested, and his friend and snitch on them like that is like a lot of luck. And that to me, and I think the same thing is true for me. I and go through the course of my life, and look at all the things that happen that we're just happenstance that led me to these positions. And I'm not going to say that it's a model that should be that should be followed. It just understand that there are occasional allies. But trying to. Build around that seems crazy. Let me ask you a very narrow specific question. But I'm just curious what you can tell me. Because again, you're one of the few people. I know may be the only person there is who's who's been in both the NFL players association had a position in that union and position the NBA players union. So the chew sports, even though we lump them together a lot pro football pro basketball from a labor perspective, they're pretty different, right? So there's fifty three on a team in the NFL just twelve in the NBA. But then additionally, you know, there's visibility. We see the NBA player we see their faces NFL, we usually don't and also the salary average salaries much much higher in the NBA in part because there's so many fewer players for the money to go around with all those differences between two sports that we kind of tend to lump in together, what are the differences in either what the union tries to accomplish for those labor forces or any any other related differences. Yeah. I think that the power dynamics are obviously very different between the players and the union and the players in the league. And also consequently the union and the league LeBron James he is more powerful than anybody. And the league any owner any team anybody in the union any player like he has more power and influence over that league than anybody else. There's no one like that in NFL. So that is is a as as are all things it is a gift INA curse. There's a silver lining in a cloud. That comes with having such a contract concentration of power and influence in any one person. So I think that changes the dynamics I Don, I think fundamentally the things that the players want and the that the union want to accomplish they're not very different. Honestly, they're pretty similar and what you want accomplish. But how you go about doing? It is very different. So obviously, I wouldn't speak about anything directly that I experienced while I was at either place, but this is one thing that I noticed that. While working at the NBA players association was Commissioner and LeBron James our Commissioner in and Kevin Durant. Like, they are more peers than than anybody else, and they have a relationship, and they have conversations that's not something you have to concern yourself with and frankly, when we were in negotiations that was it was nice to be able to to actually be that liaison when I was with NFL players association like the Commissioner and the owners, they did not know how the players felt or what the players thought and less. They got it from us do tribute that difference, then to the leverage that players have in part because just basketball is different from football or attribute that to some kind of either history or philosophy or economic leverage. The NFL owners have that is really different from NBA owners. I mean, I think those all play a part in it. But I think fundamentally it comes down to value. And I while I think you brought up that their future players in the NBA. And that's part of the reason why the players get paid more. Yeah. That's true. But I mean, LeBron James is more valuable to any single team as talent or even as a marketing vehicle than anybody in the in the NFL. So I think that that matters you can go back through history. And like what Michael Jordan was able to create was a model and players. He built on players before him where the best basketball player is something that matters. And the the best football player is doesn't matter in that way. And I'm I'm not sure that I would also say that the person who's being most taken advantage of honestly. And all of this is probably LeBron James, how do you? You mean the existence of of the max salary in basketball? And again, we talk about these relationships, and we often just talk about groups as if they're monolith. Like all NBA owners feel like this all commissioners and people in the league office for like this all players for like this all unions. It's not true. So I think the rise of the MAC salary was in part because. The NBA owners wanted to. And this was max our he came before my time. But NBA owners wanted to be able to control the salaries because that's who was driving. The salaries up is the best players. Best players drivers salaries up. So owners want to be able to control that in the middle class of players wanted to make more money. So those guys interests were aligned in that case, let's Kaplan, Ron Jane. Well, let's cap this guy because that will that will take more money out of the system and put allow owners put more in their pockets, but in a cap system, if you have a floor that also force them to give more of it to to US Middle guys who aren't really so what ends up happening is a lot of those guys get more than they frankly are worth and LeBron James and people like him get a lot less than they deserve this happened in the NFL too. Didn't it rate with the different value attached to draft picks? Right. Was that year and the CBA right? So all the sudden. On the top draft. Pick was probably worth about like a lot thirty or forty percent less than the same person had been here before. Yeah. I would quibble slightly with the word worth in and say it was paid. Yeah. Because the worth in how much they paid are two different things. But if you had a true, and the NBA, obviously has the NFL has a salary cap and the NBA has luxury taxes and a cap, which kinda creates a defacto cap and major league baseball while it is uncapped. They still have instituted a number of rules that last time I checked the the lowest percentage of league revenue goes to baseball players while they have these enormous contracts. If you put together all the money that's going to players. They are lowest of all the three major sports. So let me ask you this. Let's say someone listening to you says themselves, you know, I like sports I played. Little bit nice school, whatever. And like, I think it's an amazing endeavor. Right. It kind of satisfy scratches some issues that nothing else can. But I also like fairness and treating people with respect, and and also paying them what they're worth how do I reconcile that as as a fan of professional sports, and college sports, you're saying, there's all kinds of reasons to be frustrated if not more than that. I mean, frankly, you don't you don't you don't have to. It's a interesting kind of irony in that sports is a place that we consider it very, very controlled environment. And it says close to America Crecy as we have. And it is kind of we feel like it is fairness like whoever wins on a game on the field is the better team there, you weren't necessarily an and it's not obviously, it's not true in life. Like, the people who win in life are disproportionately people who are from wealthy parents, and who had certain connections like that's but you look at the field, and we convince ourselves that once you step out there. It's all fair. And it feels that way that doesn't extend to to the business of sports and people who are interested in the business of sports. I certainly encourage them to learn more and to get involved in this. But the business of sports is much more business than it is sports. So I understand. That there are lots of people who don't care about this and are interested in is. And I am not asking him to kale or be interested. I just hope that they don't get in with limited information. Like, I I love going to movies, but I don't necessarily want to get into the weeds of all the issues that happen in production. Right. So talk for a minute about you as an athlete as a kid. And I'm curious to know, what the transition was like when it went from something that you love to do for whatever reasons you love to do it. Whether it was pure fun or competition or being good, whatever to the transition to when you realized it was something that was going to be a profession in a career. And how getting into the business of sport changed your view of it? As I was eight when I was like, I decided I wanted to be a professional football player. Actually, I was younger. I remember because we live. My dad was in military. So we lived a couple different places. And I remember being an apartment we lived in Indianapolis, and I told my father I wanted to be a professional football player. And he told me I I don't know if you believe me or not, but I suspect that he didn't. But he told me. All right. Well, you set a goal you should do something to get you closer to that goal every day, and I took that to heart. So I did a bunch of push ups and sit ups that night until I was throwing up it's like ridiculous. And then my my father assumed tried to teach me about moderation the next day like taking take some smaller steps. I was in love with the game in part because of how violent it was. Honestly, like, whatever warped sense of masculinity. I had at that age that probably has not fully left me was like basketball is for the soft kids football is for the men and I wanna play football. And I think from two to get back to the original question that you as I don't remember not thinking that I was going to go. It's weird. Like, I was young enough. Then to be naive enough to think, obviously, I'm gonna play an NFL. And as I got as to realize not everyone plays NFL. I also was one of the few kids who colleges wanted to talk to and so. I think around high school when I worked from the time when I was old enough to to old to go like summer camp. I started to to work and that was only two summers before. Colleges started inviting mates football camps. I would go to those football camps and realize like oh shit. This is an audition. Like, this isn't this isn't camp, Susan football. I was I think I was thirteen when I went to art monks like full head football camp. And I didn't get an invitation. I just wanted to go, and I still have the report card that they gave me that said that I maybe could play division two college football. And then the next deal enough that I was. Heartbroken and define at the same time. But yeah, everybody has these those types of stories, but what position were you playing at the time was playing running back and safety which probably part of the problem because they did they separate us by age that point and not by weight, and so I was very small and too small to be a running back. But anyway, so after that year, then at fourteen I was old enough to work. So I worked the next two or the. Yeah, I think I worked for. My years might have been twelve at Art Monk, and then thirteen fourteen I worked anyway, what kind of work? Did you do though summers? I worked at a camp for disabled like a sleep away camp for disabled children and adults called camp greentop the first year, which was a hell of an eye opening experience where you have to feed bathe change diapers of adults chase them when they run off and whatever. So that's that's a whole nother ball of wax. But then the next year I worked at dragon house express, the Chinese food restaurant in the mall food court. And then the next year I got started getting invited to football camps. And and that's when it kind of became it started to become a business when I showed up, and it was like, oh, they're like evaluating me. Like, this is I this is how I can get a scholarship or cannot get a scholarship like this is where the dream either continues to go forward or or dies and how. That realization affect your performance. I'm I I worked out. So I guess it helped. I mean, we're you were you intimidated a little bit. Or were you more than that? Oh now, I get it. Now. This is my business and I'm gonna win. Yeah. I think. I do my best to be honest and not paint this picture of like, I feel like it's easy for me to say, no, then turned in another can't actually be true for a fifteen year old kid who knows that his whole life is like riding on how well he does that Duke football camp or whatever. So. I'm sure I felt some anxiety some nervousness, but I pushed it down. I guess and I did well enough to to to get their attention. But it also felt like it felt like the pressure that I wanted, you know. Yeah, I wanted to be a professional football player. I wanted for my my plate a matter. And obviously it felt like it mattered in. My little pop Warner games. Whatever I'd cry when we loss, but I knew that nobody cared in the world. But then those were real stakes and I was like, yeah. This is this is real were there other kids from those camps that you remember who also went on to play in the NFL. Probably the the one person. I remember I went to Penn State's football camp. And I remember Adam telephoto who was altered in me. He was the big guy on campus at the time. And he was there big recruit they really wanted him. And I remember like befriending him. He was a few years older than me befriended him and kind of looking up and looking up to like, oh, this is cool. Like this big time guy who's like on the cover of all these newspapers is like we're friends, and then he ended up going to Penn State and playing safety. I believe in was paralyzed, and yeah, that's a whole nother avenue. Yeah. Well, let's let's go down that avenue for a minute. You're relatively injury-free during high school and college, and when you would see other guys getting hurt or in extreme case like like Adam getting paralyzed what's your response to that? How do you react? I mean, I think it goes back to like, my warped ideas of masculinity as much as I've gotten older and tried to suppress them. I think at that point. It was still there. And I it probably not probably it still is in me at some point. Hopefully, I've stifled some of it now. But it was like, yeah, I play this game. And yeah. People get payroll. I've been on the field a couple of times people been paralyzed. I played in a preseason game in the NFL where a guy died in a locker room afterwards. I was on the field when Kevin avid was paralyzed. We have practice at Maryland where helicopter came to take a one player off the field. And the coach said move it down. And we kept doing the drills as a helicopter was taking one of our teammates who couldn't move to the hospital, you ended up being okay? But these are all things that that happened. And I I do kind of remember I think I was. Eleven years old pop Warner we're playing against this other team that had a really good running back. We were tackling the running back I hit him in his leg. And it was so many people own them. He hit the ground, and it popped and he screamed, and we all got up and the bone was sticking the risking and it was broken, obviously. And we all went to the sideline like we're broken up, and we're crying and stuff and it took a while to get him off the field and the coach we gotta finish the game. And I like that always stands out in my mind is like a turning point or like, this is what you're into. And this is what you're going to be confronted with and that point fourth. I don't think I was aware of those things. But it never really bothered me. If anything it was like a badge of honor. Like, yeah. Notice crazy stuff happens, and I go out there and do it anyway, because I'm a man or something like that you go out there and do it and you. You don't get hurt doing it? Then then you did start to get injured as as a pro. Can you talk about your first significant injury there? Yeah. I mean, it was tough. I think from a professional standpoint more than anything. I was fortunate that it didn't happen a year sooner or or two years sooner. Will this is tied to the to the money. Right. This is. Yeah. Definitely tied to the money. Yes. So let's walk people through this. Because a lot of people don't understand how money works in the NFL. You were drafted believe two thousand five third round. Right. So what I'm looking at here, you were paid for that you're including a signing bonus. Which was a lot of about six hundred sixty thousand dollars that sound about right for your one shore. Okay. And then I guess back then it was a three year rookie contract. Is that right? Yeah. It was at three year rookie contract with the fourth year option. I believe. Gotcha. Okay. So it looks like your first three years paid you total of about. About one and a half million dollars. So for you know, most places in the world. That's amazing. Those first years were in Denver. Yeah. So I went through the first three years, and then I was coming up on the contract year. And I played pretty well in Denver. And I knew that I needed to play well in this year because if you don't then the salary minimum goes up for guys after that point. So then they just go get a younger one, and you and you go on with the rest of your life. So on during week one. We're getting ready for the first week of the season in Denver. They traded me to Atlanta Atlanta was a terrible football team. At that point. It was a year after Vick was gone. And they just drafted a rookie quarterback who no one thought was going to be very good. That was the first time when I consider going to business school my girlfriend at the time who was my wife now. I remember talking to her. Then like, yeah. This looks like it's gonna work out here. I'm gonna have to think about business school because I traded on week one. You normally earn your position during training camp. I skipped training camp. This team's gonna be terrible. I'm not gonna play and then I'll be out of the league. But that you got paid a little over nine hundred thousand dollars. But you must had a pretty good gear. Because the next year use signed a contract with Baltimore that paid you in year one eight million dollars year to nine point two three four point four. Is that sound about right? Yep. Like it was a four year twenty seven I think and I'm in in Baltimore. And and then I the first year I I struggled at the beginning of the season. But I was playing really well towards the end of the season and Baltimore City. I grew up in. So it was kind of cool. And and and then we we have like Super Bowl aspirations and I'm playing well coming into the next season, and tore my CEO and the first day of training camp. And I was never the same. So that was it was kind of the it felt like my career like with all the uncertainty, and the frankly fair that I felt going into year four and Atlanta like I was the most confident that I've ever been. And I was like, oh, this is perfect. I'm I'm a Baltimore guy back in Baltimore playing well Super Bowl contender. We're gonna win the Super Bowl. I'm going to have a great season. I'm gonna go to the Pro Bowl like this. I'm planning as well as I ever have people are starting to recognize that I'm good and everything is like starting to fall into place. And then the ACL pumps. I mean, frankly, that's would lead me to take on more leadership and the players association, and let me to be involved in the negotiations were STAN is what I used frankly was the big piece that got me into business school because I didn't have the grades or the background to get into business school. But no one has experienced like that who's going to business. So that's what frankly got me into Harvard Business School. So I get it's still turned out to be a good story. But at the time it was. I don't know. I don't I would not say that it was a depression by any stretch. But I do remember my wife, and I think she was still my girlfriend then telling me like go get a haircut because like I was just sitting around the house going to rehab twice a day and coming home and sitting in front of the TV like just no shaving. No, nothing. What got you out of that? I think it's the opportunity to do to be involved in the CB stuff. It's like it gave me a purpose. Like, I'm I think lucky you're near DC did that matter. Yeah, absolutely matter that absolutely helped and lucky that I'd already have relationships there, and I was involved, and I was already in a leadership role. But I was given so much more time because of it. So that four year contract you signed with Baltimore in two thousand nine it was a four year twenty seven point two million dollar contract. How much of that? Did you actually collect all of you did how how did? Have it guaranteed? Even though you didn't end up playing out the whole contract your, yes. So I was on the team for three years. So I got those three years and then the fourth year, I got I'd taken out insurance policies. So I got the rest of it there. So I mean, that's why I said earlier I was fortunate that that the knee injury happened after a signed that deal because it would have happened when I was in college or happen to your earlier, I would have been on entirely different path, which may have turned out to be great. But I really like where I'm at now. Let me ask you this. Generally, how did the reality as an NFL player match your expectations your kid who has you told us from the age of eight or earlier with seeing yourself playing in the NFL? And then you get there. Now, it really really really is business. I'm curious to know about that my freshman year in college. I started towards the end of the season we play. Well, we won a C championship. We went to the orange ball and loss and then immediately after my head coach guide a ten million dollar extension. And that was when I was like, oh, we aren't a team we're business. And that was when the light went on for me. I don't know that I would wish it any different. But that's the thing that sucks. The most is that when you feel like you're a part of a team, and you still have that camaraderie and love for your teammates. But also in the back of your mind, you are also thinking like, hey, I'm all for myself. I remember when I'm. In denver. I had a really good rookie season. And then my second year was was okay. Then I was kind of scheduled to be the starter. Opposite champ Bailey. The other corner the next season, and they went and traded for Dray Bligh. And I love dre. He and I became good friends. But it was not lost on me that trails messing with my money in opportunity. And that's like that sucks. It's not fun to be in that situation. It's not fun to feel that in. And so I I didn't consider that. Because I used to watch every Saturday and Sunday morning. They would do these NFL yearbooks on ESPN. And they would run them like back to back to back, and I would get up and watch them all the time. And those do such a great job of telling the story of football. And I believed it. Which is not to say that. It's not true. But it is incomplete is part of that story. Like when the new kid comes to camp. Or somebody's traded that everybody tries to help them fit in even though there's competition for the job is that part of the store you're saying, that's definitely part of the story. And it's it's not untrue because we do help each other. We do care about each other. And we are fraternity look out for each other. But we're also aware that it's a business, and there's only a certain amount of money and the salary cap, and you and you recognize all right. If this doesn't work out, what am I gonna do if it didn't work out in Atlanta? And I was out of the league after that year out of in twenty six year old with no real experience. Like, I mean being a football player does not qualify. You to do anything short of being a bouncer? I guess. And I know real experience, and I'm so far move from college that it's like, what am I going to do? And I I have a Bank account that is much larger than most of other twenty six year olds. But still I got a whole lot of life left to live. And it's a it's not a great situation to be in. It's not like awful, obviously. But you do feel that pressure. You're thinking about that. And you're thinking about if you have kids at the time if you have family members that are depending on you, you're like, oh, well as much as I love this guy it's much. I want him to do. Well, like like, I need this. And what was Ashley your then girlfriend now wife, what was she was her position now because I know actually little bit. And I know that she's not one to like let things happen as as they're gonna right? She's like have a plan make it work. What was her advice to you? I mean, I I don't think she gave me much vice at the time she was in law school at the time and she's much smarter. Than me. She's like, I know a lot of people say that because it seems like the like nice thing to say. But like it's no offense. I'll say it's pretty obviously true. She's actually. We went to we met at Maryland. And she went to to the law school at Harvard. Well, before I went to the business school up there. But she. I was more stressed than she was. I think about it. Yeah. Because you think in the back of her mind, she's thinking, it's okay? Because I'm going to I'm going to be a lawyer, and I can carry him. If I need to do you think that was part of it? I don't think. So honestly, like, I don't as she tells it now is like she knew that I was going to be successful. And that was one of the things that was attractive, you mean beyond football or info. No, just in general like, I don't think I don't think she knew that. I was going to be successful at football. I don't think she knew what I would do professionally. But the way that she tells that she knew that I would be successful. So that was why she was not concerned. But I didn't know that. Now does that say more about her about you? In other words, does the same more about her like the kind of man, I'm gonna pick. I'm not gonna pick someone who's not going to be successful. Do you think it was more? You've been hanging out with because that's kind of the story that she tells. Yeah, I think that. I think she those are things that she thinks that I think she found most attractive on me. It's like I was mature and focused and like in the idea that I think an example of it is I was already looking at business schools because I had already I was obviously going to be all in on this season. I'm gonna make the season work. But I know that there's a possible there. It's not gonna work, and I'm not gonna wake up tomorrow. And be like, oh now what? Yeah. Yeah. What about did you ever think about politics? I've been told that a lot, and I guess I've given it some thought no more than a couple of hours, and I hate it. Okay. Because terrible. Because it seems like you, well, the the money and politics is one thing, you're constantly fundraising. You're not actually getting to affect any change. And I guess it depends on what level of politics, you're going to or whatever. But it often feels like a kind of trophy head and to be a good politician. You're kind of always looking for the next angle the next office or the next person who's going to give you some money. Like, I don't know that that does not interest me at all. Coming up after a quick break. Dominique Foxworth on his first big job after football. I was getting up at like six thirty to ride the subway to work with a bunch of other people who weren't happy about where they were going to work and player safety in the future football. I don't see why my son needs to play. And if you haven't heard it yet, check out our entire hidden side of sports series on any podcast app or on freakonomics dot com. We'll be right back. Freakonomics radio is sponsored by anatomy of next new world podcast from founders fund explore every aspect of building a second branch of human civilization, thirty million miles away on Mars from nothing, but rust and rock, how do we build an atmosphere on Mars, how do we build an ocean? How do we grow forests and fields and make the red planet? Green then from politics and education to money are in sex in space, what does human life look lake on an alien world dive deeper into these questions and more by subscribing to anatomy of next on apple podcasts, Stitcher or wherever you're listening right now. Book MAC, let's return now to our lately. Edited full interview with Dominic Foxworth recorded for our hidden side of sports series. So you're like a little ways into your athletic afterlife. Now, you're about thirty five years old is that right? Yup. So you've been out of football for several years now, where do you feel you are in your athletic afterlife for you still kind of at the beginning. And I'm curious to know what you see how you see it playing out. So I was president of the players association NFL while I was playing and after business school, I went to the NBA players association. And I I am in a weird state. Frankly, I I don't know how to it feels like a state of transition, which, but it feels like I shouldn't be in a state of transition if that makes any sense. So like, my my whole life since I was a kid was like very very clear goal and. Have worked towards that goal. And a made lots of decisions that would get me closer to that goal. But give me further away from other important and interesting things, including friends including family, and and then I was like all right. I'm done playing. So I will be in the state of transition business school was like all right? This is my transition state, then I'll take this job at the NBA players association. And then I'll be back to like a steady state, but I didn't like it and I left because why the NBA position. Yeah. Out. I was the chief operating officer there. And I mean, there was a lot of things going on at the time a lot of transition there. But being chief operating officer was something that sounded good and paid well, and I was very proud of. But it's a lot of operating frankly, which is like I remember living in New York and my wife was pregnant with our third child, and which she was not feeling good. And I was getting up at like six thirty to ride the. The subway to to work with a bunch of other people who weren't happy about where they were going to work. And and I'd be there to like seven at night, like working working working working. And and I remember being on the subway thinking like my happy. I have enough money that I don't have to be unhappy. Like all these people who on here with me. They have to go to work, and I don't have to go to work. So then I quit. And I started writing for fun, and that's what landing me at ESPN. But to be completely Frank with you like, there's some focus and clarity that scarcity kind of brings to your life. And I don't say this because I want to go back to a state when I was not sure financially like I like being in a comfortable financial state. But there's something to be said for the focus and clarity of ONA. I gotta do this because I got to feed my family. And when you don't have that, focus and clarity. There's something a bit frightening honestly about always feeling like. Wishing I be doing with this gift, frankly that I that I have this gift of of flexibility independence, and sometimes in the job that I have now like I I went to business school in part because I fancy myself as a smart person who's more than an athlete, and I wanted to get away from this like there's parts of me. That's like embarrassed that I like right about sports and talk about sports. But then there's parts of me. That's like, this is awesome. I kind of flexible, I get to do fun things. I get to be pick up my kids from school and take them to school. And so it just depends on the day where sometimes I'm like, I should be chasing like some big professional glory. And I'm wasting time or some days like I'm doing just exactly what I should be doing or like, well, I should be spending more time with my kids and my wife because I have this flexibility. So. When you have that scarcity to folks your thought there, it's very clear what you should be doing. And I think that that's a it's an it's an interesting thing to happen to somebody at this age, it feels like more of a midlife thing and for athletes. It's a unique thing successful athletes is unique thing that in your twenties thirties, you're like. Now what? No, everything you said just makes sense to me. But I'm also curious if there's one more element that plays into that. Which is sports is maybe singularly thrilling to do. And I say, maybe, you know, if you play music at a high level, I mean, it's probably silly to say that sports are the only one, but because of the nature of what it is in the competition. I it's thrilling I mean because thrilled people are to watch it, and you guys are the ones who are doing it. And I just wonder if part of what's, you know, contributing to your sort of Malays is just the the possibility that thrill is irreplaceable. I mean, I think that's a. Of reasonable thing to think, but it doesn't feel like that to me. Like, I don't feel like I'm missing that thrill. It's not something that I feel like I want. I think the the the feeling of of uncertainty as the feeling that I have more than anything. It's not that. Like, oh, my life is boring. It's like am. I doing the right thing am I doing the best thing. I can with this fortunate situation that I'm in. And I think like it's a where it is connected to sports in some way. I would also like exacerbates it. I think is a feeling of loneliness, honestly, which and it's not like a three kids, and my wife, and I'm not like alone, obviously, a loved them and have fun with them. But throughout my life. I have been almost myopically focused on a goal which being focused on that goal. Oh, like gave me purpose. And I'm sure I'm going to butcher the Nici quote. But it's something to the effect of when a man has a why he can bear almost any how and like I don't drink. Now, never drank in my life. I never smoke weed like I was singularly focused on doing everything every decision. I made was like all right. I'm gonna get closer to go. And I I my the people I was close with in high school like those aren't my friends anymore people as close with in college like not really my friends anymore. And then at thirty five I'm in DC where my wife has a bunch of family and friends friends that she's been close with since they were in the second grade. And like, and I'm like, I don't really have that. And like I was making these choices which I thought were choices to get me. What you wanted? Right. And and I was in other words choices dollar making that I was. Unaware that I was making. But I didn't realize at the time that I was for going like lasting long lasting relationships. I think lots of athletes do Dobbs it and bring their friends and family along with them. And then they are making a decision. There are a whole 'nother home Messer problems that you get from that. So there is no right way to do it. And I I'm very happy with where I'm in my life, and while you're professional athletes, you walk around with this skepticism, frankly of all new people in your life. So even if there were like, the potential of some great friendships like I wasn't open to them. I go to these places people. Oh, you're a football player. Then I pretend and be nice to them because that's what you do. And they pretend or whatever it'd be into me because that's what you do. And then you move on. And and then you're thirty five and you're like, hey, yeah. I haven't talked to your best friend from high school in ten years or or something like that. So I I mean, I think that. Certainly don't like feel sad or anything. But these things that I am becoming more aware of now. And I think I said to my wife a couple of days ago that I feel like I'm in a perpetual state of transition, which is interesting and uncomfortable at the same time. What are some of the the other things you've tried? You mentioned the NBA players association job. What are some other things that you tried that you thought would make you excited or happy and didn't? Though, it's not that they didn't is that they that. They don't you know. So like like, I mentioned it's it's no matter, and I'm starting to kind of understand that. And this goes back to the scarcity point where if there is something there to make the decision for you. It's it feels somewhat easier. But. I magic at that. Everyone can relate to this that when you're at work. Sometimes you're like man, I really wish I was with my kids. I really wish I was partying or when you are with your family. You're like man, particularly if you like your job, you kinda wanna be at work or you might want to go on a guys trip or you might wanna go on a romantic vacation with your wife like there's so many things that you want to do. And, but there are things for so many people that they have to do, you know? So when I'm in this position or it's like, all right? I wanna do this. And then I'm doing it. I'm like, I kinda wanna do some of that. Then in like, it even breaks down into professional where it's like, all right. I want to like just chase professional glory. I wanna be like work my way up to the top of some company, and like I think I'm capable of doing that. Like, I feel like I have intelligence, or charisma and. And pedigree academically to get in those positions. But that requires you to like, not be home a lot. And like, I there's part of me that wants that. But then there's part of me. And I was like I want my kids to look back and say, hey, my dad picked me up from school couple of days a week. I don't know. So this ambivalence. You never had any of this though when you were chasing the NFL dream. Did you know, it's this is brand is brand new like it was quite clear to me that there were two things I need to get paid. And we need to win and anything that was not in line with that. All right. It's obviously, I don't need to do this. And I think maybe I was more extreme version of it. Then a lot of people like to the point that like, I don't drink and stuff. Like, I I don't have some religious thing against drinking. I just never have it as an I didn't when I was in high school when probably a lot of people start because I was like, no it's gonna make me a worse football player. One of my. Best friends in high school, actually, sold drugs and got a little bit of time for it. And when he was selling an occasional smoking. I was like, nah, I'm a football player. Like even our presidents over the years have experimented with marijuana. Like, it feels like for me and some even cocaine for me, it was like no there's one thing to do. And now, I'm at this point where it's like, I don't really know how to have fun. I don't really have like super close friends, and I don't really know what to do with my life. But I'm pretty happy still. So it sounds to me at least that you built an identity that was you know, focused really strongly focused on on sport on football. But there are a million parts of what density means it means. You know, who you know, and what you do with them, and what you put in your body, and so on and that now you still have the identity, but you don't have the thing that you built it for. I mean, it's got to be a little baffling in a way. Like, you are the person you made an to succeed, and then you did succeed. And now, it's like, whoa. What next? I mean. I think most people's journeys are so much longer that when they do succeed. They like die a few years after something, you know. That's your problem. That's your problem here. Yeah. I mean, that's what's always attracted me about the idea of the afterlife of an athlete is. It's unnatural, you know, most people like they pursue something for. Their whole life or it's not. So specific that they basically are told to stop doing it when they're thirty five because I know they're too slow. Yeah. And yet like you can't like ask like, you got a lot of money in the Bank. You can't ask people to feel sorry for you on that front plainly. No, I'm surly. Like this to be clear. This conversation is not at all about me wanting sympathy or failing sorry, like no, no, I didn't. I didn't mean to imply you're know there, there's nobody that I want to trade places with. But I just I mean that doesn't mean that there aren't things that well, but you have a serious case a grass is greener. It feels that way right to the point that you made about the I am the person that I made one of my classes and business school one of the the there was surprising. I went to business school before after I finish playing. I went to business school because I was like all right now, I'm gonna keep competing I'll go to business school, and I'm going to turn this twenty seven into two hundred. And then I got there and surprisingly as I'm sure Harvard has a bad stereotype or by reputation for like creating money hungry like people with low ethics. I'm sure there are plenty of them coming out, but also prize with like how much mushy solve classes that we had was about our feelings, and integrity and all that stuff. And I do remember one professor said that wasn't to me directly. It was just to the class. But it felt like he was talking to me directly. And I didn't. Really liked this professor necessarily. So I hate to give him credit. But he said something to the fact of the operating system that you use to to get here may not be the operating system that you need going forward. And like that resonated with me because I feel like that's definitely true for me. But I don't know they don't just like release updates for human. So modify mop rating system is is is a slower more challenging process, right? What was the professor's name? I don't remember. I didn't like them. Because the first day he said to me like, obviously, I was the football player there. And that was part of my density his size me up. It was like aren't you kinda small for football player? We'll we'll your ass in this class. But he was actually a pretty good professor at all. Right. So let me ask you this. You are a scholar at least an amateur scholar of the civil rights movement. Or can you just talk for a second Abou the relationship between the civil rights movement per se and sports areas where there's overlap maybe we're one movement is way ahead or behind the other. And and I'm certainly, you know, got in the back of my mind, the anthem protests that our big piece of this conversation right now, I'm curious to know what you have to say about that. There's something like at least in America. There's something black about professional athleticism like the players are largely black and particularly in the big to sports a lot of the culture that seeps out of the game into our pop culture. Come from black players and. A lot of people who want to separate race from sports. And they say they want to kind of go back to how it was. And when race and sports were separate. But it never was like it was it. Always it always has been enter twined like races is. Probably the most particularly in America. It's like the most defining characteristic of our countries like how we have dealt with race in. It is always involved in everything. And obviously there were like the sixties, obviously, no one can say that racing. Sports weren't connected, but I think people point to like the periods after that from the seventies eighties to the nineties, and they would say that those were times when race and politics and social issues were not in sports. But I still think they were because the players were still dealing with it. Whether the media's putting attention on it, or whether people are willing to address it or talk about it like it was a thing. That was always there. So that frustrates me. So I Don I don't necessarily feel like while. I I do accept that. We're in a state now as a country where it is unavoidable. The intersection I don't feel like it ever went away. Like, it's not a new intersection. It's just we happen to be on that corner altogether. Other at once. It's funny. You say that because the thing that struck me most about when Colin Kaepernick, I decided to protests police violence by sitting in the kneeling during the anthem. The thing that struck me is it felt so mild compared to some past protest moves. I could you know, nineteen sixty eight Olympics. I mean that was a big deal. And then it also struck me the response also struck me as so over raw that again it felt like pre sixties in a way. Like didn't. We like haven't we done this and shouldn't the conversation be way ahead of this. But maybe that's because it is at the end of the day all about just race and not even racing sports racing politics at cetera. Do you think that's what it's really about? Then. Yeah. I mean, it's not about the. Issues. It's not about the posture. You take when you are when the national anthem is being played like it's something that I as a father of come to kind of recognize that adults aren't very different from from children. They just adults learn how to justify and how to kind of validate their actions and decisions. Whereas if Musonda something ridiculous. And I asked him why he looks at me. Like, I'm crazy like how you asked me why or more or he'll just say like I took some cookie and like why I wanted to cookie. Like, okay. Yeah. That's that's fair. And I think that people to certain degree, even if it is subconscious. They do what feels right are what makes them happy or what makes them feel good? And then they're like all right now, let me concocts this post hoc justification whether it's conscious or unconscious, and I think that's what's happening. And I mean, we see it with the with the anthem stuff. It's like all right sitting down during anthem as a problem nailing. Then then you move from there to nailing so nailing. Santa problem raised fist is a problem. And now we see that staying in the locker room is a problem. Let's just be honest about it like you don't like these people making any statement. And it makes you uncomfortable. You don't like it. So you're not gonna like it no matter how they get it across like, there's no. And that's the one of the things that's been most frustrating about this is they're like, no, I understand. But this is the wrong time or this is the wrong way. I know there is no right time. There's no right way. You should be more like Martin Luther King like Martin Luther King was assassinated and large majeur. Thirty of white society was not happy with him advocating for advanced rights. I I don't know it just feels like there's just no matter what there are people in it. It's it's a trap that. I think we often get caught in and not just in this case. But just in general, it's like all right? We're going to try to satisfy everybody we're going to try to satisfy this group like some people don't want to be satisfied. They wanna be angry. Let them be angry. If you were still playing in the NFL, and I say, yes season happens. What do you do during the anthem? I mean as I think at this point. I you probably stand up because there's not much. I mean, it's easier easy to say. Now, I don't know. So I'd like to say that I would be in solidarity with those guys, and I would have the courage to expose myself to the hate that they're receiving. But I mean. I don't I don't know. It's easy to say now from the sidelines. I'm just going to ask one last question if I can two part question number one you played professional and college in high school football. So you can't not think about long term brain damage since that's a big piece of all conversations about football these days. So I'm curious to know, whether you feel a little bit lake you're living with a time bomb in your head and related to that. I'm curious to know what happens if when your son wants to play football. So I'll take the second one. I so slightly easier is like I he's only five now. And I say, no, I mean, it's not a problem that we're actually facing this point. But I would say no, I mean, I so if he comes to you and says, hey, dead. I know, you know, before I was born you were amazing NFL player. Great careered cetera. Would he mean? No, what's what what are you? What are you talking about? I mean, I think the the research wasn't there? I suspect my parents would not have let me play when I was that age if there was information available in like, it's it's not even clear information. But what is clear is that it it does put you at higher risk like my son doesn't need those things like the best case scenario is that you play professional football. And you make a lot of money. I I wasn't. I was far from poor up like middle class. But like I went to Baltimore County public schools. I I was. I that's not my son's experience. I didn't have access to the things that he'll have access to. So like, I I frankly think that he is starting in a much better place than I am. So he should do much better than then banging his head into other people's head for money. Like, it just seems like a step back to me, honestly. And so kind of Unimak gross scale does that mean as football goes forward, and I guess if all goes forward, which obviously in the short term it will. But long term. It's a question. Does that mean that the only people that play it are going to be, you know, the people who need to play to try to make the money that they can't make otherwise it kind of feels like outside the quarterback position. And it's already gravitated to that like both prior to two now. But I mean, you guys, you know, the San Francisco forty Niners, for instance, they have a few guys have had a lot. There've been a lot in the league went to Stanford. So these are football players that go to Stanford the Stanford degree there's a lot of ways they can now make a living. So there's. More about the appeal of playing at that level than just making the money. Yeah. Oh, yeah. I mean football players athletes are still heroes in our society. And it's something that people particularly young boys will aspire to I understand that. But I do think that the danger is something that's going to push people away from it in a way that it drew people to it in the past. So I I mean, it's not football's not by any stretch dead. And there is still hope that they could find ways to modify the game or improving quick men or whatever and make it safer. But until they do like, I don't see why my son needs to play. But I don't judge anybody else. Yes. I'm can do what you want your son to do not for my son. And then what about you, do you worry about your brain? Does your wife worry about your brain? Absolutely. I mean, I do it's it's something that I think lots of players talk about and think about and every time there's like it could just be like general aging. You don't know what your keys are like it's like you're living. Horror movie, honestly, where it's like this thing lurking in the background that like you you hear noises, but you don't necessarily know if that's like just a regular nose or if that is a monster. And that's like what I- analogize it to or. It's like all right. I can't find my keys that to me feels like oh is this a signal or is this just something whatever. And so I mean, it's it's scary. And I think that what is most frightening is right now, I would do it all over because of what it's done for me and my family, and I think most players would agree with that except for the ones who killed themselves. Like, I have been said before obviously. But I don't know that darkness. Like, I I don't know I've never ever in my life like gave any realistic consideration to and in my own life and trying to. And I mean, I invite you or anybody else to like try to wrap your head around. How sad like depressed? How dark you must feel to see death as as relief as a way out. And I imagine if I were ever to feel that way or for people who do feel that way. They don't say like I would go back and do it all over again. I would imagine in that moment. They will give up all the fame all the money. All the success all the women or whatever else that all the trappings of this to not be in a place where you feel like the only exit is to end your life. So that's very dark and very difficult to deal with. But I I've never been there. I hope never to get there. But until then like, I feel like I'm happy with the decisions that I've made and I will continue to live as happy and productive life as I can well on that. No, let me just thank you for a really great conversation. And wish you and your family all the best. And I hope you find the greenest pasture pasta. And then find a greener one. That was Dominique Foxworth on Twitter. He's Foxworth twenty four. Hope you enjoyed this full conversation. He appears throughout our hidden inside of sports series, including episode numbers. Three forty nine three fifty one and three sixty five thanks again to him. And thanks to you. For listening for economics radio is produced by Stitcher and near productions are hidden inside of sports series was produced by Andres Kelco, and Derek John with lots of help from Harry Huggins, Alison Craig glow, Alvin we also it helped from Rebecca Douglas and Nellie Osborne, and our staff also includes Greg Rippin ANZAC Lipinski the music you hear throughout our episodes was composed by Louis garra or show can also be heard on NPR stations across the country. Check your local station for the schedule also on Sirius XM Spotify. Even your better airlines. Thanks for listening. Stitcher.

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Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets & Picks (Ep. 657)

Sports Gambling Podcast

00:00 sec | 1 year ago

Super Bowl 53 Prop Bets & Picks (Ep. 657)

"The sports gambling podcast is brought to you. By my bookie dot AG. The official online sports wick of the sports gambling podcasts. Use the promo code S. G P fifty for a fifty percent deposit bonus today. We're also brought to you by odds shark. They have the latest Beden sets and trends, you won't find anywhere else. Plus free picks from their supercomputer and expert writing staff, follow them on Twitter at odds, shark and WWW dot odds, shark duck. Welcome everyone to the sports gambling pack. Sean stack in the green with my partner and picks. Right. Real money. Kramer super. It is right post juiced up music come on. Come. We got to celebrate. Super Bowl Super Bowl Super Bowl. Yeah. Yeah. Super Bowl Super Bowl Super Bowl. Yeah. Yeah. It's the. We only get one of these the year. What's in a lifetime? We're actually just once a year. But it is the suit Burke ball where we see the New England Patriots square it off against me gloss Sange. Liz. It's been a long arduous season. Abed beats close calls huge wins. Come from behind back covers all to bring us to this very special magical game the game that symbolizes. What is awesome about American and that is betting tons of money having multiple bets going on the same time Harley picks proc seven layer dip. It is the fucking Super Bowl. Brought to you by my bookie that AG promo code S U P. I'm counting that as the my book you read ride because we have so much so much sooner which content to get to. I mean that would be that's a pretty good. It's a pretty good rate performance. I listened to that which I was kind of listening to but also staying in character. Yeah. Let's just bring the fucking Super Bowl Brian. There was a moment where I was going through to doing the research for our million dollar picks million dollar props challenge research doing. Yeah. This is the one gave actually do some research on because there's so many things the thaking bed on they actually have to. A little bit of reason I get up on the soapbox get on that. So you know, I as I've mentioned once or twice have a long commute. So a lot of lot of podcast consuming. Been listening to a lot of gambling related ones. Just it's always good to hear people's takes on like what what what their angle for promises. And if I got I mean for fuck sake, if I gotta hear one more thing about this God damn line movement. Sean really, well, the reason that one out of ten beds is on the Rams is because why would you bet the Rams until the line gets the three no shit. No. It's this whole like I don't know if it's the mainstream media buying whoever it was like why everyone's bent in the patriots. They're the public team and contrary in this area job in some MSM. Ryan all in on Trump does MSM that's short for mainstream media. Thereafter you so anyway, which on anyway, I thoroughly enjoyed all that bullshit. But. It's just great to know that the the media's talking about line movement. Ryan, that's how far we've come even from. When we first started this podcast in a little ole the garage back when we were taboo, taboo to talk can we? Oh my God. Oh my God. Talking about gambling. And now, it's become a multi trillion dollar legal industry. Wow. It's getting crazy. We need to get our piece of that trillion dollars. Well, we are. Thanks to all the support. We have from the listeners, and we're trying to help someone get that their piece of that trillion. We are as much as pains me to give away our actual money. We're doing it. Ryan we're doing we are giving away a thousand dollars in. I think we've done versions of this. But of dollars and merch we got some hats. We got some my bookie, hats and got some. I think we've got a couple of my bookie football's kicking around we are going to be doing Super Bowl squares for the first one hundred people who re tweet the tweet that has the linked to the Super Bowl preview podcast now. Terms and conditions. Do apply conditions are I'm doing this manually, and I'm going to pick one hundred people there could be there could be some user air rides discretion. I'm okay. Let's let's keep ourselves from getting into some legal trouble. And we'll say that what you have to give it time. And then we'll check that. And put one hundred names. No, you want it to be the first honor. Yeah. All right, or we will be choosing one hundred names most likely the first one hundred all you have to do is re tweet the tweet one it drops over on gamely podcasts. The tweet will be appearing Thursday morning. Eight AM Pacific eleven p eleven AM east. So originally we normally put out the podcast tweet at six AM, west coast ten, but we're John shy sympathetic. I didn't want guys have to set alarms. I know most of our audience is heavy d jen's. And you know, you might have a little might be a little hungover pre-game in couple as early for the big game. And I wanted to make sure your tiptop shape to re tweet the podcast tweet to enter the Super Bowl squares super kind of you shown. Supercar to me Ryan, we're gonna be giving out. Like, you said we are taking one million mybookie dot AG dollars owner in the mybookie dot AG website and placing whatever it's we want all props. We got twelve props each is that what we did twelve. We did Easter twelve props spending our million dollars. And you know, we'll see where we end up shot one with the exercise way to go down the list. I'm looking forward to that. So let's say you can tell listen to too much sports talk radio. I just wanna make fun of it the whole time. It's horrible. Like what I need people to tell me. What would I should listen to because there's not many good podcasts. I flip over to the NFL the ringer show. Sean your favorite. Yeah. Well, Robert Mays in my ear to be clear. I do I do listen the summering or content, but part of me also enjoys shoving Robert Mays in locker. So I'm really torn thankfully, the double dog was. I know what I did ride. I reached over. I I spend the lack of couple times. The locker just so he could see the God. God God bless that ninety Nick foles long Cox Ryan without further to we also have special guests call in. We'll should we promote one last thing here. Periscope periscope. What time are we doing game periscope for the fucking Super Bowl? That's the official title. We'll be kicked off one o'clock. West coast time get you good. Kickoff. Yes. Cool one. Yeah. One works. We'll do like thirty minutes or whatever. Answering your listener questions. All that coming up a first an interview with Josh Appelbaum joining us on the line from the action network, Josh Appelbaum. Josh how excited are you for Super Bowl? Fifty three. I can't wait it's becoming old hat at this point, my patron it again, and I know your year ago we were talking past eagles. So I'm ready to get into with you guys for little pats Rams. Ready to turn the page on Nick foles, the Phillies special. I'm I'm guessing. Oh, man. Don't don't remind me. But I'll give hey, always Philadelphia. You guys deserved side. Also. Well, we'll give you on. Let it go. Sean. It's never let go just gonna. It's just gonna keep growing. But Josh isn't as a pats fan as a as guy, you know, working for the actor network following gambling. You know, being a big gambler yourself. Does it ever? Does it ever get old hat? You know, the patriots in the Super Bowl d still get excited. Always get crowded. Yeah. So I I'll be asleep. I'm ridiculously spoiled. I remember two thousand lawn. I think I was thirteen fourteen years old and walks in the first title in the past came out as a team Rams are individual like right there. I knew new onto something big. But no as we as gotten older, you know, you gain a lot of perspective. I think you, you know, you're spoiled and you take for granted. But the older I get you know, the number of times check and Brady are going to be in this spot. I know radio play forever. But there's not too many left and each one gets sweeter in my opinion. So just excited. This one is two thousand lawns. It would put the bow on the career just book in championships over the ram, Sean that first ram Super Bowl. I was in college. Yes. One a grip a cash offering teasers to anyone that would take it Rams money line and the over. So I booked a whole bunch of action there that was that was I a lot of people I feel like people, and maybe we can get into the game a little bit. But I feel like there's some people that are thinking that maybe Bella check could potentially impose similar game plan as he did it last week slow the game down. I just I don't know. I don't know. I don't know where. Go ahead. No, no. No, no. I I don't think it's going to be. I don't think it's going to be slowing the game data. I think it's going to be a lot of a lot of short quick passes. I think that'll be kind of their game plan to offset the Rams interior pressure to keep Brady upright keeping clean. I don't see them. I don't see them going to like grounded pan that they did against the did against the chargers, which what's the biggest key think for the patriots to win Super Bowl fifty three year. I mean biggest key, you know, beg the biggest thing. Bill. Check. Does. He takes away your number one option. So you'd have to think you know, that's Todd Gurley. Limiting him making making Goff. You know, throw the ball. So you know, putting off in the situation. I mean, he's a great quarterback. But I think he's just you know, don't check having time to to game plan against him. I kinda liked that match up. But yeah, no turnovers. And you know, I think if you can make the Rams one dimensional. I think that's really your ticket there. And obviously think on Nicole Roby Coleman. Talking about old. So I always loved one a team gives you bulletin board material when when you don't need it. So I watch out for long props on slot receivers at Georgia HOGAN could be big big passing game because you don't wanna run straight into. I don't know. I don't know if you know, but the patriots they're still here. No one believes we're the right? I was gonna say my favorite thing that he said was I'm glad he read the narrative because I'm hearing all of these patriots fans credit how good of a quarterback. Jared Goff is all this is great. They're just setting it up there. Verse Jiang come on Jared Goff. Jared Goff, sucks island is still a great place of AK Shen. And I mean, I guess teased my pick later, but I do think it's the one area where it's like, man. The thing that makes it harder for me to bet on the Rams is Tom Brady verse Jared Goff, period. Well, but I do think an Walter football had a great post about that of how the superior quarterback in the in the past fifteen Super Bowls or yeah. The most recent fifteen Super Bowls the the superior quarterback had only like one in covered five out of the waiter. Are you saying that was not superior Brady either Super Bowl in? His in his valuation. He gave them the the NAT superior. Josh. I'm looking at your Twitter bio here, you I got a linked to your new book sports the everything guide to sports betting, which is coming out February fifth, so everyone make sure you go to Barnes and noble Amazon. Check that out. Go to sports gambling, podcasts dot com. Click the sign up link you label yourself as a contrarian sports better. I'm sure you get into that in the everything guide to sports betting as a contrarian sports better. Are you worried about the tremendous amount of public action? You're patriots are getting. Dog this is and thank thank you so much for that beautiful introduction. I I can't thank you know, if you're getting to sign copies and your way in Vegas. Awesome. By the way, it's on the way. But yeah, I mean this game. This is a conundrum for me. I mean, you know, the one of the first thing things, I learned sports. And so I just the value of contrarian betting. I mean, I knew nothing about it. I made all the rookie mistakes. I was a you know, naive Boston sports fan. Just, you know betting on every, you know, socks pets Bruins Celtics game. And you know, every favorite every home team every over, and wouldn't you know what I lost all the time. So they kind of made me realize, you know, when I really my founder and CEO Dan for breezy. Oh who went to the X number of us. But he really showed me the value of being concerned and just the mindset of it. My Mandra PJ wall, also, you know, as a huge role model for me. But really? No, I think it all boils down to you know, in the end the house always wins. So it's not that you wanna be you know, considering and every single game just blindly. But if you can always look for the most heavily back games, most lopsided games, the games of the most public action where the public is just way value one side, you're automats gonna wanna be on that contrarian site because more often than not the public loses. They really overvalued things that really don't matter much, and, you know, work at the live odds and the percentages and line moving and looking at historical data and really public better just setting based on gut instinct and bias, which I I know 'cause I used to you know, I was better public sending these. So I know what that's like. But the other thing is, you know, put me while to learn this too. But the other makers will set the lines, you know, not just based on running their models algorithms, you know, all their power rankings. They'll come up with a a rough spr-. Red. They'll add a Justice for, you know, injuries matchups weather, whatever. But they're also going to set aligned based on how they're going to perceive the public to go. So, you know, they could set a line, you know, to number for, you know, Duke against some scrub team might the minus fifteen but just because it's to they'll open at minus seventeen you know, 'cause they know whether it's fifteen or seventeen Publico him or dukes. No matter what. So you're getting more value just by being contrarian. So you'll you're saying there's inherently more value in taking the Rams because of all the patriots public money. Exactly. So this is my and under him, this is this is one of the reasons why the Super Bowl is one for me because on the surface. I look at the percentages are latest stats at sports insights and the action. Our seventy eight percent of spread bets are taking the pats. So right off the bat, you know, cover up the name of the. Teams. Where's the public? I want to be on there on the other side public is all over New England that automatically worries me about the pats. So, you know, being in that twenty two percent with the Rams is automatically more valuable spot. Whatever. So here's my saving grace. Maybe just finding a way to some money on the past and site, which I did. But shot to my guy Evan Abrahams who works maybe action. I work, but he on covered this this really, you know, made me feel better about my pets pick. But basically, it's not just percentage wise. It's also based on movement. So, you know, depending on the book game open at a pick on even Rams minus won-, it's all the way to Pat, minus two and a half, you know, it's kinda got three here and there, and you know, sharp ram that three on the key number. But what I really like is if you look at just big line movement in Super Bowls going with the big wind movement has been really profitable. So if you're looking at also bowls in which the line move at least one and a half points toward one team. The team moves toward is fourteen in two straight up. I think they're like on a say like twelve and four ATS. But either way, you know, following the line movement has been profitable. So yes, that's how I rationalized being contrarian. And why the hell am I on the seventy? Eight percent. But basically the public isn't gonna move this number two and a half points. You know, I kind of one thing is I think public and sharps are somewhat United on the pets. So based on that big move, you know in their store. Go Baillieu other big move like that, you know, I feel a little bit better being being on the super public side. Okay. And while we're we're talking the game. Gotta hear a gotta hear a couple of props that you like because that's a huge part of Super Bowl weekend. And we're gonna be talking about. Talking about promise. Yeah. So one prop that I was getting into the game. And James white really been catching my eye James just been huge for the pats. But Charles where guy Sean corner, I actually think there's a lot of value on James white under six and receptions, so depending on the book, this is off shore either I think it's about online but James under six and a half catches, plus one ten you're getting plus money. You would think, you know, apple spread it out. You know, James white bunch dump off, you know, left right screen passes stuff like that. You know, a couple of games like Broncos. He had fifteen catches. So the the obvious play would be take taking James away over six and a half catches. But Michelle birkhead, you know, all the pats running backs or healthy. And a lot of our stuff has around five catches for James white to get plus money. James white under six and a half catches Serbs it sound knowledge. Great play. But I kinda liked that almost buy low sell high on James. Yeah, you're right. Maybe the line is a little inflated because he has these breakout games or he has a crazy amount of catches. But if you actually look for his catch count a lot of those games did go over six and a half, especially. I mean, I I I'm really torn on James because of course, Sean, I need him in the F FCC. But also. It does seem like the smart money would be to go against this. Well, the Rams very nominal line. Yeah. The Rams are they're they're not great at defending pass catching running back. So maybe there's maybe that's what lures Val check into giving him the targets any other any other property like their Josh that are jumping Atty. Another one was this is I I love these ones. Either kinda crazy but Jared Goff under eight and a half rushing yards. Just I think pets are really going to keep them in the park. I mean, he's not a runner anyway. But they throw the ball contain him. You know, make him, you know, check down multiple targets and I kinda like these under quarterback rushing yards. 'cause you know, he breaks off one, you know, ten yard run and you're screwed. But we you have a lot of good stuff with our fantasy labs player props on Jared Goff under eight and a half rushing yards. And it's even money. It's minus one ten so you're not getting plus money. But I think the good value on, you know, maybe Goff finishes with, you know, zero rushing yards or one or two or something like that passed under twelve games for off. He was under for those times. Don't know. Sorry. I mean, he only you only went over the and a half four. Out of the past twelve games. So that's a nice trend. All right. What buying and you've been looking at. Yeah. Yeah. We're going to do a we got a segment coming up right after nice where we're gonna we're gonna simulate giving out a million dollars in profits. I do have one that didn't make the cut and that's the that will will Brady or Goff have negative rush yards. Yes. Plus one sixty now you're not going to get that price for will the game end with a Neil. And you in theory. I mean, yes, QB sneaks could screw this up. But I I kind of liked the fact that you can get plus one sixty saying the game might end with the quarterback kneeling three times and losing three yards. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Because they're show. Those count as a as a negative on yard. I mean. Yeah. The one that Pena throughout that didn't make my actual list. But I do like as well as Jared Goff over a half. I n t it does it does seem like a pretty strong possibility. Right. Yeah. I think they're gonna play play man make him. I mean, if you're the patriots, you're gonna make Jared Goff beat you. But yeah, I think there's I think there's a chance while gets away from. For sure. And by the way, obviously, Malcolm Butler can't make that. I n t do we know why Malcolm molar didn't play in the role last year. I still one of the great on solve mysteries. I guess. I'll just go to my go to my grave not knowing why that happened but good for you guys. Either way never had. History. It had to been. Getting into it with the coaches or something because just sit him down Chakri. Yeah. I reached the highlights from last year, and they they really went out of their way to pick on aircraft. So hopefully, there's no a late night curfew shenanigans that 'cause one of the patriots starting Cornerbacks to be benched that will be interesting prop. I haven't seen it out there. We'll we'll player. That's traditionally on the starting lineup. Not see any playing time for mysterious reasons. Certainly a possibility. Well, Josh appreciate calling in. And of course, make sure you check out joshes a brand new book the everything guide to betting sports coming out baby v amazoNcom Barnes and noble. And yeah, make sure check that out lot of. I mean, Josh, what's the what's the biggest reason people? She grab this book. Biggest nation grab the book is even if you're so it's geared toward new betters. You know with Paso being overturned, you know, so many states legalizing betting, you know, so many millions of new betters in America will be bending for the first time, I think this'll just really increase your learning curve, you know, teacher the fundamentals teach you a lot of different strategies bankroll management types for each sport overall and really teaches contrarian blueprint, the, you know, why you should, you know, a ways to locate sharp action, and even if you're, you know, a season wise guy like you like you guys. You know, you're sharp is attack. But there are some great tips in there little trends, you know, like cold over the NFL thinking of weather, you know, March madness stuff considering brackets -vivor pools. So basically, also, I think. You know, we dealt with us a lot, you know, gambling Twitter. And you know, you never know what you're gonna get. There's a lot of hyphen bedding and a lot of big promises. And I just kinda wanted to five star lock. There's literally one chapter that says it's all avoid south handicapper so I know. Yeah. But I just wanted to be straight with people, and hopefully teach them a few things, and you know, kinda just, you know, betting his heart. It's it's not it's not this easy thing. You're not you're not going to become a millionaire overnight. But you know, if you're into it, and you you put the time and effort into it, you can't succeed, and hopefully this book two things get you off on the right track. All right awesome. Appreciate you calling in. Josh worst of luck to your patriots. And make sure you give Josh follow on Twitter at Josh underscore, insights checkout all his great work with the action network. Thanks, Josh have a good night, man. Good luck with the book, man, you guys. Guys. Thanks again in. It's all cool. They hate us because they ain't us, but we're still here. Oh, yeah. Right. I'm salivating. I'm celebrating waiting to discuss these prophets that we got going on. But before I forget to thirsty. I'm going to head over to the the ocean of knowledge that is odds shirk dot com. Short comment. Great company. Enjoy having him on the show. They got a ton of data tone of information. Tips winning tricks. They got their supercomputer right now saying the Rams are going to beat the patriots. They like the under as well. The halftime Betty props got some picks they have their own ultimate Super Bowl. Fifty three props page. Tons of tons of other other sport content as well. They got the odds to win the waste management. Phoenix open. You want to check out the W M MP O as it's called hashtag W M P. Oh, boy, Steve Shurmur has just been. Killing it with the golf Ken content over at sports gambling, podcast dot com. If you're interested in betting golf at all, I highly suggest you you take take again at his in-depth now Jabbour breakdown, but odd shark gamma following footer at shark take a bite at your bookie with ads shark dot com. Sean, yes. Real quick. You mentioned the the golf tournament going on this weekend. Did I've been it's it's a have it on good good account that cousin mush? We'll just start referring to as cousin. He's traveling to the golf tournament, and is going to be in some sort of outlandish patriots get up with sports gambling podcast fucking wheel, man. Well, I appreciate the support hoping for a picture. He's I believe, and I should probably just pull it my text. But he set the set the total on people try number of fights. He almost gets into at three and a half. So we'll see how that goes. But I Sean I gotta be honest. Yes, I love when you're honest on the podcast. I'm I feel like I'm catching Rams favor. Ryan, do you? Do you have a song that that would highlight your view, and for those of you who are like no way, you guys are gonna play this on the pike. We're gonna play the whole fucking thing too. Two. It's it's worth it. Just to like go on we posted a link on the on the site. But you gotta see the the guy's hair in particular. So awesome. Yeah. It's. I mean, low I love the eighties for their football. The football wraps. Just so much cocaine going on right now. Nobody. Rhames wrapping. Guessing. Right now with L A. City. It's going to get. Hugh could see nobody anymore. Wait, right. Nobody. Quarterback spirit. Come from the end looking for the number that I put him on the back. The call. I know how to run from the toes to the head when I pull the. All right. I mean, honestly, Sean it just keeps everyone gets. There's. What part everyone gets a verse I strongly recommend the first minute and a half number twenty one is all over it. Still in the show, man. It's so good. Nobody likes to ram it. Like me. He's one of those guys. We'll get penetration where they self aware. Dancing pretty hard watch the video thing to be in on a joke. But you do not do that much hand clapping and choreography. If you're if you're doing something, sarcastically. They're trying like clearly someone is giving them this bad choreography, and they're trying their best to do it. I mean, the bears were serious, right? Yeah. Everyone was serious in the eighties. They weren't sunglasses inside tons of cocaine. Tbirds Lawrence Taylor was was walking around the earth back, then simpler, time Ryan. Okay. Enough fucking around. It is time for our million dollar prop challenge by bookie. Dynegy promo code S. G P fifty presenting. What would you like to say? I was going to say can you break down the rules for the audience? Please the rules are followed. We have been each granted one million dollars in my bookie dot H E credit. No, no word on if there's a role of requirement, but we are given one million dollars, and we will have to pick. Or we had that the spent powerlessly fit over these next twelve prophets. Let's do it Kramer. You can you can kick things off give us your first. And honestly as I was doing this. I'm like, well, this would be a really easy pool to do where you just detail everyone they have X amount of money to to to bet. And you you cap how many bet you can make and you just great. It winner gets the pot. Just giving out good ideas. Well, also, I don't know if we're talked about this. But we as always we have our own printable Super Bowl squares. So if you guys want to support the podcast there's a little podcast logo. It's it's nice to have those easy printable Super Bowl squares. You don't wanna see CBS logo, and like some Snickers thing. And Ryan all you really have to do is type in Super Bowl fifty three squares into Google. That's how awesome are SEO is. And it is I knew you're gonna get here. You were so excited about this all week. It's right up there. It's on the first page was was not gone slightly. But oh, what's this the action network? Yeah. Those they got. Throwing grid Super Bowl fifty three squares. That's right now. We're right there were number two, Sean Larry convenient over the the patriots logo Rams logo. But more importantly are laid in our SEO, still great. It's we're still top notch. Sean. All right. Let me start with. All right. So I I don't know if you wanna go in order of the game or what? But let's just go in the order that we listened all throw out coin toss tales calf million dollars to play with. And showed you can't tolerate laying minus one oh two for a fifty fifty proposition. So I put it dollars on it. Two hundred eighty dollars to is actually a good price for some you look at other offshore places. It's like one oh five I have seen someone ones out there but kudos to my Ryan. Local Chappel get you like one of five or one ten I feel like one year was minus one fifteen and it was just like come on, dude. They were trying to the action like like that. That's the and you know, the shout out to Josh's book. It does sound like we we probably have a lot of lot of listeners who could take some take some advice from that on how to actually gamble and not lose all your money. But for some people, right, but yeah, like, don't lay minus one ten on a coin flip. That would be a good PSA. My first prop Tom Brady. Baby fucking wheel man completions over twenty seven and a half. You do like this one. Like it a lot. He's going to be throwing the ball a bunch Dink dunk quick passes. Whatever we can neutralize or potentially neutralize the Rams Fash. Both the playoffs games. He's completed thirty. Plus, I think similar game plan against Iran's can throw you their opportunities to throw against us. Rams ryan. I'm throwing out two hundred sixty thousand dollars prop feeling good about it and the price right now. My book is minus one thirty. So I would win two hundred grand and from experience that is pretty awesome. That's pretty gangster coming out strong. I did not come out strong. And now for my second. I'm gonna I'm gonna swing right ahead to halftime. But cover the couple couple key events of the game. Right coin toss and half. Halftime. You wanna have some action suspenseful? Everyone's watching we all are. Dying to know will Adam LeVine wear leather jacket. Obviously the answer is. Yes. But somehow this is only price that minus one seventy Sean I'm gonna throw five thousand dollars on. I've now risked the total of six thousand five thousand enough slow, right? I you know, I like to save it for the end, Sean I wanna blow my water out all at once. Five thousand will win me two thousand nine hundred forty dollars. My bookie books. What are we call them? Yep. My bookie bucks. I'm going to Tom Brady first passing Pleat fifty thousand plus one ninety that is juicy. I know I also have over twenty seven and a half completions. But that I pass incomplete we talk about it all the time. You gotta play both quarterbacks y'all you need to do is win one of them because you get juicy plus odds both and plus ninety fifty thousand ninety five grand not bad. No. I mean, you know, you know, I like that angle I'm assuming you're going to be playing both sides. I will I'm also on Jared Goff. I pass incomplete for another fifty thousand dollars. Plus one fifty bring it up to seventy five thousand that makes me think that someone in the know knows that 'cause plus when fifty still thinks a little low, it makes me think the the Rams I pass flight will be screen just a little insight. There Kramer, who is your what is your third you going next level? Well, you just did a little snake action. So I might as well do the same because I'm they're kind of the same types of props. And that's I'm gonna go for gronkowski to not score. Touchdown at minus one forty. He's played well in Super Bowls risking thousand. To win seven seventy one thousand four hundred no one hundred thousand my sorry. One hundred thousand to win seventy one thousand four hundred my logic here. He just hasn't been a guy involved in the game plan as a pass catching target and especially in the red zone. He's he's exclusively bene- blocker down in the red zone. So yes, you're bell. Check pull something out here. But I think considering the price here of the no I mean, he's a guy who scored three touchdowns all year. Sean, it's minus one forty feels generous. It's yeah. It feels like this should be closer to minus two hundred if his name wasn't gronkowski perhaps it would. And for the second note note touchdown scored I'm gonna go Robert woods again. He he doesn't generally find the end zone. He scored six times all year. He hasn't scored I think three or four games. And I truly believe this woods will be a guy that Bella checks at least look to take out of the game. So another hundred thousand dollars at minus twenty five two. So that's one hundred thousand to win eighty thousand dollars couple big bets. Yeah. Finally, breaking anchor. I've spent two two hundred six thousand dollars at this point. This is my next one. I really like it. I'm I'm putting down a hundred and fifty thousand dollars at a minus one fifty price to win one hundred thousand dollars, and this is and maybe I don't know how they came up with this number because it seems it seems to good to be true. Greg's our line first-half field goals attempted in the total said at one over one just attempts. In the past twelve games. He played he made a first half field goal. Ten out of those twelve times, let alone tempted. Hey, can you not see the Rams attempting a field goal in the first half? At worst case, you push and the the over the over feels pretty doable for you to lose it. I just don't see a scenario where the Rams don't attempt to fill in the first half. I love how much research you put into this. You were texting me about it last night. I was like I mean, it was really my mind was blown because I think what the fuck it's priced. I think accordingly because of the fact that you're probably gonna push right? Like, there's a high push percentage in about like this. Right. He, but the fact that he's, you know. Yeah. It seems like two is very I like the angle, and I'm not I'm not trying to disparage someone from taking it. I just think. Yes. Yeah. I don't know. They're on. All right, Kramer, what is your fifth prop, Sean, you're gonna love this one? Spend spend a lot of time with our buddy from across the pond who hopefully I get that that I had a breaking news on. A fan. And I don't have it in front of me. I'll give the definitely of the shadow and the periscope. I'm hoping to have this Jordy Nelson jersey and task for the Super Bowl periscope to be paying my bet to Billy who has got me more into the old soccer, Sean, and I'm doing it. Superbowl this big act Super Bowl fifty three being played in the home of Sean, the MLS champion, Atlanta, whatever their name is the Atlanta downloads. Maybe. Anyway, I'm going soccer here. Sean I'm gonna let's that famous strip called magic city. Magic city. Yeah. Maybe magic cities. There you go. Atlanta's got an all you know, that that subculture there man you goals. Sean Manchester United who's been playing great since there. They they switched their manager. Sean if you knew this they've been playing good, they're great. I believe they're playing Leicester City. And I'm gonna say they score more goals than Tom Brady has touchdown passes. Sean for plus one twenty risking fifty thousand to win sixty thousand. It's a bad bet. Why's that? Because no one scores and soccer Brady's gonna get you at least two touchdowns, I expect. I think they get three goals. I think Brady throw for two, but why not just bet on Brady touchdown passes and not have to check soccer score. Because I figured you'd wanna talk about soccer figured wrong. Right. I wanna talk about the coin toss. Gimme heads. Oh, let's just Betty other forty thousand your maniac four put up one thousand grand on a coin toss. Why not? Mine is too. I coulda sworn earlier in the podcast Josh called you smart or sharp, sharp sharp is attack. And yet you are laying forty grand on a coin toss. What's up? Astra two percent come on, man. What's that sharp about it? I mean, you're taking heads tells never fails scientific, except you wanna talk about fading the public all the squares are on tails. What was that story that all the money was pouring in on tale serious? And that's why they probably have to just the price. It's laris. There's probably shop out there somewhere where? On a coin toss. I mean, I guess if you wanna balance it, okay ride. I'll give you my six bet here. Okay. Gotta we gotta go a little wild because there's a Super Bowl people like here in that. Maroon five opening song. I'm going with duty moves like Jagger. To throw throwing twenty grand on it. Fuck it. It's eight to one to win me one hundred sixty grand love it. Gimme a moves like Jagger. I didn't dabble on this. But give me the field on the field. What's the field like minus one fifty? I wouldn't bet the field because they have like ten of their songs. So the field is a horrible bet. Okay. They're gonna play one of their most ten popular songs. They're not gonna play a B son at the Suez the first the Super Bowl. Halftime. You know? I do know. Okay. Give us your show up. I'm I'm ratcheted up a bit. My biggest bet or is it my my second. Biggest bet on the board. I'm going, and I truly believe and also need him for my f- PC. That's high girl is going to be involved. They're going to get them involved early. And they're going to get get him involved in a way that they can attack the patriots defense, and that's pass passing to the running back out in the flat. I think you get. Those linebackers in space and they're going to have trouble Todd Gurley over a half. I four receptions, minus one fifty five I'm betting two hundred thousand dollars. Wow. To win one hundred twenty nine thousand dollars. I envision like first series. They throw a swing pass to him just to get him in space, get them going. So. Yeah. Well, that's what I said that I I pass completion juice seems to be a little bit offer Jared Goff. So maybe someone saw the script Sean McVay script. And I know an early screen pass is coming it. So I I don't love this Ryan I don't love this Todd Gurley reception. First quarter. I don't love, and I I just think they're going to get him involved in everyone's talking about how like God you need to get him involved in the passing game. It just seems so obvious. So I love it. I love it. I would have paid more. I would have paid a steeper Parral. Really, see, I I wouldn't do anything I wouldn't lay that much juice almost a mortal lock. Well, except when the patriots get the ball. I have a nine minute drive. And then the Rams go three and out. I don't think. So I don't think we're gonna see a long drive. No they have to score. And I don't think they're gonna fuck around. I or sorry. It is the first touchdown. But it's a patriots first touchdown. And that is for Tf himself. Tom brady. I touchdown rushing. Touchdown. I'm throwing thirty grand at plus three thousand to win. A whopping nine hundred smackers. Do you have a the sound of fire over there for the thirty grand us? Almost almost Jordan Mathews for such down the saints game. But you got my head Ryan by saying I always give out bad crazy longshot touchdown out. So I'm going back to basics. All right, Sean. I I did not. I did not go I touch I touched touchdown. But I did do a couple MVP bets camp, and perhaps this maybe maybe we're teasing where I'm starting to go with the the side in this one. But let's start. I just Todd Gurley at ten to one just it's you know, we we I don't know if we discussed this on the podcast earlier in the week. But. You know, he has he has the potential of scoring three touchdowns and winning the. I mean who who who wins the MVP if the Rams win Sean Todd Gurley Jared Goff, and maybe Donald right like who else can possibly win. It. So I think at ten to one Todd Gurley. Great price twenty five thousand to win two hundred and fifty thousand dollars Sean Todd Gurley MVP. Okay. Well, right now, I'll jump ahead. I am also on Todd Gurley MVP. But unlike you, I three Wapping hundred thousand dollars on it here an animal, Sean for a cool million dollars. You're an animal third another one here. Well, why don't we stay in the MVP VP's my second one? Because like I said if the Rams win I gotta think it's Jared Goff Todd Gurley. So I went Jared Goff MVP plus two forty I went fit. I mean, I feel like that prices pretty steep considering they're like plus one twenty to win the game plus two forty I fifty grand to win one hundred and twenty grand Sean Todd, girl or Jared Goff MVP. So I'm cornering the market on the Rams. Oh wonder who I like to win the how now right? Oh, no. You already bet the patriots. So norden. He did didn't you say I thought no. Don't you have to you have again, we I didn't do. Do I didn't want to bet on the patriots shown? All right fair. Nalysts? I I always liked this one. I turn over fumble. Fumble I like it to fifty thousand plus one twenty gimme sixty grand for that. I want one hundred percent would've that was on the list. But I saw you had it. So I scrapped it, Sean. Yep. Opening kickoff. Pena talked about this opening kickoff. Not a touchback. Plus one sixty shown that feels a good price. I do like the the component of these teams kicking it down to like two yard line. I went fifty thousand dollars to win eighty thousand dollars. The only thing that's scary. Is it is a dome and these guys can't help themselves. I think sometimes maybe maybe I'll take the plus one sixty five percent of my bankroll on it, Sean. So. All right. This is a this is one I liked in. I mean, Ryan, I'm sure you'll you'll say I'm crazier or but doesn't the doesn't a pricing seem off on this. What will happen? I a sack or touchdown sack. Is the way I went because sack was plus on forty five I through one hundred grand on that for a possible payout of one hundred forty five thousand dollars. What am I missing here? All right. I think that's a sucker price. I mean, I think you see the plus odd. I I'm pretty sure in this game. We're going to see a touchdown. I I think both quarterbacks are going to be up. Right. I really do. But like an average game. Saxon touchdowns are probably pretty close. So I think plus one forty five wonder I wonder if that's the case. But yeah, no. I mean, what's the sack total on what's the sack generally a sack total in a game is is lower than the touchdown. Touchdown totals are usually five and a half to six and a half and sack totals Eur typically four and a half to five and a half. So. Yeah. Now. I like it. Well, you know, what they say, Sean, you're better, you better have more minuses than pluses when it comes the prop and you're betting on the public sucker side, Iran threat. Another too many podcasts. Let's go with will Romo or Nance mentioned the spread. No, plus two fifty wait knows plus two fifty that. I did you get that. Right. I think I did I'll pull it up or you can give your rationale. It's it's got to be minus odds. It's a mortal lock that they mentioned it. They they won't mention it. Oh, no. It's minus four hundred plus two fifty polish is they will not mention the spread minus four hundred. There's no way these guys mentioned the spread. Right. Nance never meant. There's no way Nance would mentioned the spread. Now, they're super they're super squares to it CBS. It's for old people. They don't want to scam away with these. Any new romo's too. Busy predicting the next play. Gyp gyp. You're like Tom Brady is going Jim gyp. Tom Brady is gonna throw the ball watch this watch. He's going to throw it to one of the one of these tall guys. Okay. There it is there. It is. Jim, that's what we said might happen. They ran the ball on on a on first down at the goal line. I predicted that because I am Tony Romo. Jim, Jim, Jim do you see this gym look for look for the patriots to either run or throw here? And yet they're doing they're running or throwing get bed. Tony romo. My book as much as I love Mexican American. Yeah, new. Yeah. Someone. I was going off on like why does everyone love Romo and some guy said he's a Latino Einstein and Latino guys love him. So I was surprised to learn that, but. Has has prices on when his first when his first correct play prediction will be and they list the first quarter second quarter third quarter and fourth quarter. And I was I was upset that there was a no, correct prediction. Listed as a possibility. I was I was I was disappointed. I know you wanted to attack that prop. I mean, I would have got it on that. There could be. I mean, I don't know. Or is he going to is he going to do that at all on the Super Bowl? It was such a hit last week ago. Of course, everyone's everyone's getting him worked up in a lather disgusting. I'll I'll throw another prop here. Right Brandin cooks under seventy three and a half yards. I'm one hundred thirty grand on it. And it's one thirty two hundred thousand dollars. He's only going over that amount once in the past seven games and that was the last game against Orleans secondary. Which kind of has some issues at times. I really don't think bell. Check is gonna let cook speed him. I do normally like playing the revenge factor. But for printing cooks, I just don't see him having a huge game. I think Goff. We'll be able to throw the ball. But I think he's I think it's going to be distributed pretty evenly amongst his. Receivers. I don't see one guy kind of going off in hogging all the receiving yards and targets. Yeah. I it's weird. Because I while I think woods is golf's guy. I think Bella check will know that. And we'll cook know what I think I think it could end. I mean, I like I like playing the under from the Bella checks not gonna let this dude fuck and beat them. But I also wonder if he knows that woods is more important. Takeaway, Sean, if you're keeping track at home, I got four hundred thousand dollars left, and if you're keeping tracking home, we only have two props left. So I'm about to make a splash. Second half. Plus overtime will be more points than the first half. I feel like we like this every year. I like it again, minus one fifty I'm I'm betting a hundred and fifty. Thousand to win one hundred thousand Sean it's no brainer. Right. Yep. They're gonna come out. There are going to be kind of tight Jared. They're gonna have to work Jared Goff into the game. Yeah. I and I and I don't know radiant Bella, check note, would they they've scored how many points in the first quarter three. Yeah. They're bad. Quarter scoring in the Super Bowl names ache as they didn't score against the eagles. Right three. Maybe. But they didn't up until that it was three. So maybe it's six in eight games. Okay. Come on, my take it. Yeah. Lock that up first half on. I do think there's a formula though, I, and I I'm kind of on the same sort of logic. Where it goes slow at first, and then they kind of kind of eat up in the second half there. Oh, I definitely wouldn't bet. The under in the game. I might bet the owner in the first half. Yeah. But I wouldn't you rather just play this prop versus or would you rather take under its twenty seven and a half right now. I gotta magic people are going to bet the over for the game, and it's gonna drive the first half total up. But I mean, let's let's say if it's at twenty seven twenty eight do you like playing the under for the first half better or taking this prop at minus one fifty? Well, this prop you give yourself more outs. Right. Because and that's I guess why. It's minus one fifty. I would probably just take the first funder. But I kind of like I don't mind this second half not in the first half. They're pretty accents. All right. I just think if you're I don't think you throughout your Brady run. Oh, of course. I was saving the end John. What's wrong with you? All right. Well, they wanna make Vegas. Fucking bet. You just ruined. My my final prop at I have twenty thousand dollars remaining. And I'm gonna throw it on Cordero Patterson. First touchdown of the game. Cordeiro Patterson, plus thirty three hundred to win me six hundred sixty thousand dollars some lane one million with the possible three point five three four million dollars. Right near welcome. Lot of tickets. You can pry burn up here. I do like the girl eater that could be that could be a big time. Big timer. Sean, I laid a million and my potential our potential return is one million ninety one thousand three hundred twenty dollars. I like that conservative show. Yeah. I didn't do bunch of plays. But then why not just throw? I mean, if you're looking to get even money on your million dollars. Just fucking throw it on the coin toss diversify bitch. Well, we we threw it out to some listener questions at gaming podcast. Some people have any good shown. There's obviously a number of jokes. No way. Guy wanting to check in say Jamie, hav at Jamie Hobson, Sean, I saw homes a Goff sex island for sale and red fin seller. You finally vacating that property and a believer. I I think Warren sharp or something was on a bad cast. And he he was he he didn't go out and like criticize Jared Goff super hard. But he did say a lot of quarterbacks could be succeeding this McVay system. And I am kind of the same mindset. But they're certainly a scenario where he's the MVP. Couldn't you say that couldn't you say the same thing about the Josh mcdaniels system. Yeah. Could be successful Brian marijuana Matt castle took him into the playoffs. Yeah. You're that. Brady got hurt. Sis. Tom didn't miss a beat. Did not miss a beat at one. Johnny bell. One says if the Rams win sixteen one girl MVP's the only narrative, right? No way Goff is the hero. Right. I I think the golf narrative is certainly there. But I do think girly being I think we got it at a plus thousand there's probably places where you get higher. I saw openers like eighteen hundred. So I think that's tremendous value for guy who was literally an MVP candidate during the regular season. And you're talking about fifteen sixteen to one for the Super Bowl. I mean, there's obviously something weird going on with him. But I I wouldn't I wouldn't completely stay away. And maybe throwing a Aaron Donald in there. I I don't know. But I think early. Yeah. At sixteen to one. Why not I mean, I laid out the blueprint don't be afraid. I mean, it's such a high price you can get forward to put someone Goth. If you like I mean, and the and the golf girly MVP of you just bet both those that pays better than Rams Moneyline. Right. Yeah. Much better. Another guy at the sec one fifty one he was asking. Over on gronk over on yards pays sixty nine cents on the dollar. Is that enough signed take? I think is a little jacked up here. But if that's not enough sign to take that than I don't know what to tell you, so. Yeah. Kind of he likes the over on gronk, what do you? What's your take on overground passing yards? I don't know, man. I mean, I took the no touchdown prop. I mean, I guess the the argument is well they've been saving him and Bella checks gonna wanna do something different. I maybe maybe I've heard plenty of people say, you know, there's matchup potential there. But I just don't think wrong the same guy anymore. And I think he put a lot of effort in these last couple of games. And I, you know, he's a little high it, I I don't know if I'm I'm laying sixty nine getting sixty nine cents on the dollar for gronk over nice all say that David Thomas three one three color of the Gatorade bath. He. He says a traditional final bed for me. What color do y'all think? Well, shown that over at my bookie. Yep. I got the prices up right in front of me black channel know who like talking white looking. You look at plus one fifty looking sorry. That was Gladys Knight's out. Got it up in Sean live green or yellow is plus two twenty five clear slash water. Plus two twenty orange four to one blue for two one read six to one purple one thousand now they drive themselves. Crazy. Why would you have blue and purple here? Just going to create problems for yourself. I mean both teams have blue right? Yeah. Gimme the keeping the lime green. What's that price that plus two twenty five? Yeah. I like that I'll go blue for four to one. Okay. Take a little risk. But then when it's purple you're going to be going to be yelling at it. Good luck battling it out. Maybe but I'm gonna take blue, Sean. At hey, now kid is heading Vegas for the Super Bowl in wants to know where should he watch the game? In the hotel room with a Hooker. Right. Yeah. I ask or checkout inside Vegas gambling package. Pena host heading local Vegas reser. He's going to be breaking down all the spots to hang and what to do for good night out. So that's that's the guy you go to for that guy used to watch it at the south point, surprisingly good time. Good setup definitely recommend checking out there. You don't have to get their super early to get a spot. So Dan Mullen at the original d m one he's got a couple, but this one in particular like total players was the rush attempt over under nine and a half. That's gotta be under. I totally agree nine and a half is crayon it out Brady right white. Okay. Michaud Birkat kid Eshelman only gets one may or Patterson. That's five. Yeah. And then we go Goff girly. Anderson. That's what I that's why you have to have throw to other wild cards in there who else is getting the ROY light to you. What they may do a cooks. They generally do a reverse so woods or cooks. That's yeah. I still that's only nine. Yeah. I I like the internet and a half the fake kick. Maybe. Oh, well, but Hecker the punter for the Rams usually throws it. So do the Rams used another running back. We're being completely retarded about not not mentioning. Well, did you throw in Devon there? Maybe that breaks. All right. Actually, I'm gonna go. I'm going to say I'm going to actually just said both quarterbacks will have a rushing attempt each team will run some sort of reverse. Yeah. And the whole back to and the patriots will have four people touch. I could see why you might wanna take the under there. Yeah. And at laid the hook Tom Brady fuck that guy, right? Yeah. There you go. There's some listener questions. I'm sure people want to know national anthem. Ryan do you have a pinion on the national anthem? I I mean, not really what's crazy night. My book even breaks it down for like. Length of time for music star to I note suck over five and a half seconds under five seconds length of time. She sings the word brave, Senate four and a half seconds. We'll she forget a word, no minus seven hundred. That's isn't that. Gladys Knight's not forgetting fucking word. We'll she joined by pianist. Yes. Minus one eighty no. Plus when forty lack up that minus one eighty will any scoring drive take less than the national anthem blue. That's a good question. Right. They national anthem time set at over one minute and forty seconds at mine for forty short under. Oh, wait. Let's find a balanced one here. Okay. One minute and forty nine seconds is minus one ten each way. Okay. So they have all these different. Alternate lines. Got tens crazy. Okay. So we'll say one minute and fifty seconds would scoring drive. Less than that shirt. That's the two minutes you warning. I actually really liked that as a prop how. Right. Because it's basically being someone has to get the ball and score. It's a scoring drive. It doesn't say touchdown drive. Yeah. I mean, yes. Minus one fifteen I could be I wish I would've seen that before. I would've thrown like three hundred grand on that. You did fuck in research. Yeah. But there's you get lost in the ocean of props. Right. And that's why we need the listeners the throws liferafts to figure out how to bet this. Fuck. Yeah. In fact, we should just have a constant stream of of props. All should we have a hashtag? Sure. We'll have some more new sure we'll throw out some more for the pre-game periscope. Okay. Ryan before we give out our final official picks and lacks four this Super Bowl fifty three. Why don't we hear from one last time for this football season? From the original chatter help head himself, Boston capper. Breaking news. Ryan we try to call Boston capper, but he is not picking up his phone. It's past midnight on the east coast. So it's almost one past pass out time. So he's most certainly drunk off with ski and completely passed up. But right, I will be filled in for Boston. Awesome. Gra-? We are the best you era. You are haters who you hashtag still here. Hashtag still here. The hate us because they eight s era ring for the each finger and Brady and Bella check. Roles. Gills? He's going to be going all over the place. He's the goat. He's the goat. He's go. He's crying small time. You can fuck yourself, Shawn. So there you go. Well done Boston capper will predict the score to be thirty one to twenty eight patriots. He's not gonna. But here's what I'm saying. Maybe the patriots are taking them a little too lightly. We couldn't even couldn't even get a Boston cap or call. He's not he's not even worried right? He's home. Thanking out in Florida. He's already went to bed. He's relaxed and he's got nothing to worry about. This Sunday game is in the bag. Ryan more importantly, we really couldn't even find a ramps fan. Now, we didn't try super hard. But we cannot find Rams fan. Kind of interesting. It's interesting to talk to people in Los Angeles about like the situation. We're in right now. I haven't normally when you normally people people are saying the situation we're in. I'm going all in on Trump. But for us, it's that no one in L A once talk about football. And it's so weird because I go through this real through this every year on the Super Bowl where you have to. Hey, guys. It's the Super Bowl yet to care about this. And everyone else doesn't give us shit. And I gotta be honest. There's exactly no difference. Now that the fact that LA actually has a team in the Super Bowl. It's crazy. No difference at all. So what do you think about the big game? Sean who you bet non. Who am I bet, you know? That's just what happens to be at work constantly incessantly. It's like all right. I mean, we I don't mind talking about football. But my thought process on football is on a different level than your fucking wooded. Pena say Nancy from accounting, and then I have to it's basically I have to stoop to a cave man's level to explain football to these people boss. I'm talking about the market. I'm I'm telling this, dude. I'm like he's like I like the the the Rams, and I'm like, well, if you like the Rams, dude, you should wait. Because there's a good chance. This number is going to get to three. And then and he's just like. All right. Yeah. Good call. I like the Rams to. The big yellow ones the sun. All right. And you just kind of. Kinda just tipped your hand. Do we I think it's time. I think it's time we've we've dilly-dallied enough. But now for the announcement of our official Super Bowl picks, presented by my bookie. GD official sponsor of the sports gambling cast. I up Ryan Kramer, Wilby announcing his Super Bowl. Ryan. Who did you have last year? I honestly forgot. I'm not trying to troll year. I feel like I had the page. I I don't know. I had the eagles. I think I want money with you. I don't really recall. It was all blur. For me. Honestly, I did. I remember having a number of props and a lot of them were early. And I was I was cooked by the end of the first quarter. And anyway, yeah, I just I was I was driving home today, my really incredibly long commute. And I was kinda just like you. I to be one hundred percent honest. I didn't know what I was going to bet on driving home. And I'm like, man, I there's a million reasons why shouldn't take the Rams. And I just. They're the better team. And I'm gonna I'm going to ignore the Tom Brady thing, and I'm gonna Agnello the Bella check thing because I think Sean McVeigh is actually maybe he's on the same level, and he's able to play chess against Bill Belichick, and I think for that reason. And for the fact that this team is, you know, it's kind of crazy how this team is quietly going into the Super Bowl with the were not really being respected because people are live like literally saying we shouldn't be here. Two weeks of the Saint Scott hosed. Congress got people talk in all sorts of nonsense sports books to promotional givebacks on money. I it just seems like this Rams team was one of the best teams. We hadn't football all year. They they have one of the best players, and they have a quarterback that frankly, Shawn he he showed something in that game and golf made some throws real quick for. He could totally be system guy. But he made some plays in a very difficult place to play that's gonna be loud. Just like this Alanta stadium. Maybe we'll see how the crowd is. No, no, see that's another. That's a reason why I think it is a vote for the Rams is that it won't be loud. It's not gonna be as loud as the Superdome. And that did slow things down a little bit for them in the first half adjusted. They came back the second combat what Jared Goff overcame in that game that I don't I don't think anyone's giving him a ton of credit for. For but they were down two touchdowns against the saints in the dome, and he started off like shit. Colfax was able to bounce back from that. And then went essentially win the game. And that as a team they won the game. Like, everyone talks about the bad. Call no one talks about the pick and overtime like they they won the game. And they're totally being disrespected here. And I, you know, we don't even need to talk about the market and how everyone's betting on the patriots. We've already discussed why that is. But I just it. I haven't heard a single fucking person come to me and be like, yeah. The Rams are gonna crush it. Yeah. I think there's a lot of scenarios where the Rams could win this game handling. Enderle? The Rams Wade Phillips two and one against against Brady bell. Check. Devia way. Right. You're you're always fancy the ram should be favored by two and a half. I mean, the public is all over the patriots the open the number at one, and that's like to to that point. It's probably closer to what they think about. All right. So if this game is in LA are the patriots it a pick them or the patriots like, plus is that really the affair spread? I don't think. So. Yeah. So I I think to come back to the better quarterback doesn't always win thing that I throw out there early Walter football. It's five and ten straight up the worst quarterback winning and three and twelve ATS I'll run through this real quick. But Kerry Collins over Trento for Kerry Collins being better insurance for loss straight up, Los ATS. Kurt Warner better than Brady in two thousand one law straight up Los ATS rich Gannon better than Brad Johnson law straight up loss. ATS Tom Brady better than shake delone? He won straight up loss. ATS Tom Brady. Better than Donovan McNabb. He won loss. ATS rothlisberger. In math Hasselbeck considered even in his rankings. Peyton manning. That doesn't Rex Grossman win straight up. When ATS Tom Brady better than Eli manning law straight up loss against spread Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner. He gave it uneven Peyton Manning over to breeze loss straight up loss. ATS Aaron Rodgers over Ben Rothlisberger. Wind showed up ATS Tom Brady over Eli manning again law straight up loss ATS capper Nick over Joe flacco loss straight loss. ATS Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson loss straight up loss. ADS Tom Brady over Russell Wilson wind straight up ATS. But again that was close I've killings unfair to say that Peyton Manning was greater than Russell Wilson that year pay manning was hot garbage. No. That was the one. He. No, no, no. That was asked handed to them. Yeah. But then wait win. Did they hold on? I miss. I don't know Tom Brady over Russell Wilson. Wind showed up against spread. Cam Newton overpaid manning loss straight up loss ATS. No, Peyton Manning was horrible. When in the two thousand fifteen right, exactly. But wait Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson. But they won that. I don't know they lost weight. What year did Peyton Manning when the Super Bowl at the Broncos Cam noon? Yeah. That's right. I'm blanking. And they were he was worse than Cam Newton in that one. Member Kam chancellor, fucked him, the first point I play was a safety. Yeah. Yeah. I was all over Seattle. That was great. Yeah. That was one of the greatest moments that was one of the greatest gambling days in my life. Well, right. Looking forward to the Ray we give it a score. Yeah. I'm giving out a score the Rams will defeat the New England Patriots. You three to twenty seven thirty three to twenty seven see like the over. Yeah. I do slightly and throw it along teaser. Give me. Oh, jeez. Me the Rams up to eight and a half and the Underdown fifty two. It does it does feel like it's going to be a game. That's I it's I just I don't think I like betting the over. But it does seem like how is this game? Rams. The Rams will be able to run the ball. I like the Rams offensive line. I think they match up. Well, what the patriots I end. Really no one's believed in the Rams. No one's talking about them. They don't I don't know. I don't think they're gonna be it's gonna be too much pressure. I do think the game starts out slow scoring wise. So I I'm not I'm not crazy about the over. But I'll I'll say thirty three twenty seven Rams just ram at baby. Thirty four thirty one Rams win off the leg of Greg's or loin. I think sirloin is going to have a gay, man. And that's why I love that first half field goals attempted over one. And what whatever whatever happens in the F F P C that field goal will cost me some some form of money. Ryan give us a give us some breaking. News update. It's too painful. Sean we we have a team. Yes. We could do some damage it goes off. Okay. We're in like two thousand place, but if gronk not many people have gronk, no so three three points per catch. Because you get the one and a half of the tight end and times to for the Super Bowl. Well, yeah. Exactly. So I mean, I it's not unthinkable for something crazy to happen. We have Todd Gurley as well. Who suddenly is like a man if he could just show up easy for us to put up a hundred points. And what do you have to do cash? What's hash top six hundred? I think it was so big dick Nick has Todd Gurley. And Julian Edelman, okay, we'll I'm fourteen seventy seven do. I have an I in the mix you can cash. I think you're definitely in the Kashmir you probably have a number of teams ahead of you like early nettleton. Yeah. I have I have another team Sean with sandy. Geico superfan. Justin decker sandy, go supercharge owes in four hundred eighteenth place that team we have a little bit different. We have James, white and Robert woods. So I'm not as optimistic about this squad. My squad, Sean, of course, James white Todd Gurley in eighty nine th place. I have a if they go off I can finish in second. So all right, Elliot one Ryan while we're talking tag girly. Make sure you check out Todd Gurley on Nickelodeon. If you have kids deck, amended crash leads finally. The long-awaited season three is here. Fucking hilarious. And it's it's going to be on Super Bowl Sunday twelve forty five east on Nickelodeon right after huge double dare special. So you have kids it's a fun show to throw on there and watch them. So check it out. Ryan anything else make sure retweets for the for the Super Bowl squares. And again, this is our own fucking money. So do us a salad. Leave us a glowing review knowing apparently leave out profanity no profanity no racial slurs or any of that horrible stuff. Yeah. But you can be funny without that. Right. You be better that it's it's more. The it's more of the I tunes filters than us. I you know, I can take a joke. But. Barely some that are views have been getting filtered out. So I can take it to you would if you'd like to leave a glowing review we always appreciate it helps keep wind in the sales of the sports game lead pad cast really excited. We got a ton of new shit coming up on a new posts, tons of great content, or it's sports gambling, pack dot com. Thank you for participating in the Spurs game and podcast full or the scaling back show stack in the money green. And he is Ryan just Ramat Kramer, let it.

Sean Rams patriots Tom Brady Jared Goff Cox Ryan Josh Sean Todd Gurley Jared Goff Twitter pats Bella Kramer James white Sean stack Todd Gurley MVP official golf
The 15 Million Dollar Handicapped Finale, A Fascinating Phil Tweet, & Snakes On A Course

Fore Play

1:35:32 hr | 3 months ago

The 15 Million Dollar Handicapped Finale, A Fascinating Phil Tweet, & Snakes On A Course

"Would Look at Boston, we'll Tom and look at. This stuff that they pose to some of it's like. Such. Quite quite amusing and. Stuff, like that is what we need. To. The Gamut Goal Nice to be your boys congratulations on all that you're doing. Mediocre as it is at the LACI this year, I'm very much thinking so I don't. Give that people together. Thank you. Brag dumped butter knife my wed off. These newer younger him or. Barstool Sports Tigers had three Baxter One fusion we welcome in from Barstool Sports, rigs, and Trent. Guys welcome to the show. Right. Barstool. Sports second show the week we are back. We got the entire squad. We've got Trent Franks car right now Lurch Jake any bug, our producers. Thank you guys for your. Hard work. Gentlemen. Hello Frankie is it are you going to be safe driving in zooming? Practicing good, driving techniques. Can you arrested right now? I don't think so I mean maybe keeping as around blinkering as you just heard. And maybe I could be arrested for wearing air pods. While driving think you're not allowed to like impede your hearing is the word I'm looking for could you be arrested post podcast? No I got too many pva cards. No I don't think he can I think you'll be okay. Frankie turnout. Then then we're just kidding you're not actually. Driving. I'm. Living Mentally. I'm driving amongst the hills of my brain. As a dangerous place anyway dangerous place anyways tour championship week finale of the season that kind of never was and maybe half was starts Friday because Labor Day weekend. So it ends on Monday, which is weird. Always trips me out huge payouts in this thing. You know how much you buy into or don't buy into the fedexcup that's kind of up to you. We debated forever they just threw money at something we try to make it important it Kinda works, and obviously the big names are always played in it whenever they can tigers wanted a few times. So clearly, it's a big thing. It's a big deal when it comes to non majors is one of those weeks that's huge delivered two years ago the moment with Tiger Woods, which watching that clip up up I. Think it was scratched he who put that thing up I mean it gets it gets every damn time. It starts it starts with rory actually being like Holy Shit as he's watching all these people still in behind Tiger Woods walking up the seventy second holidays two years ago and so you know we get into click with tiger and with Phil. Mickelson. When Phil says you know alright alright. All right they're introducing tigers nine million words that he had on the I. T. so we are all very familiar with this week. And then we've got a lot to get to on our own front. We've got the travel show from Australia. If people were call, we went there a long time ago. We were there in December we filmed I think we have probably. Five episodes. From Australia of the travel show to come out the first one, Kingston Heath is out we talked about a little bit on the show I think within the past month or so but. But boy it our memories. I can remember shit when. I was trying to ask me and I'm usually probably one of the better ones and then watching you guys not be able to remember anything. Was it was it was fun. You're without question the best one, four shirt that's not close I. Try I did them pretty much simultaneously I trent to is, and that was it gave me an extra half hour to rack my brain for anything and I had nothing. Yeah. It's still bad because it's been a running theme for me during these Travelers Jersey does where I don't remember anything in Australia was the best example of that because. As, we talked about in in the episode, we had just gotten done travelling for twenty three hours, and then we went right to Kingston Heath but yeah rigs usually the one like a photographic memory hill remember his shots at golf course you'll remember all our shots at a golf course. So once you get to the point where Riggs starting to get fuzzy the rest of us are just completely Yeah it was. It was two years ago to right like it's like it was it was it feels like it was eighty five months ago at this point especially with the pandemic and while we've all been home quarantining, this year has felt like two years in itself. The fact that we went to Australia only in December's insane Do we wish that? This came out faster. Yeah. Obviously I mean like like that would have been a perfect world but with everything happening, there were people all over the world and we couldn't get his everyone and it's slowed the process. It's not the worst thing happened and I'm really happy to see it coming to light now and it's actually like we're watching we watch it. On Youtube it's like watching the trip for the first time. Almost you're reliving the moments because like I don't remember anything I can't believe. I. Look the way I. Look. Just like completely clean Shaven Noel Like fourteen year old mustache I'm wearing these glasses and a hat I looked like was on another universe that was crazy I mean there was one clip in the in the pro shop where I just I'm not wearing a hat and I just had some hair which. Human being taxed those who different people and yet you're right like we it's been so long for us to that I didn't remember Indian shots watching the clips I was I was era I don't that's such. A unique experience because I remember of shots takes come out relatively quickly. So people do understand the behind the scenes because I don't think most people really care but a few people were bitching about how it didn't come out sooner whatever. So those who don't know we had Andrew was there filming who's an awesome guy? He got shortly after he started with US got unreal opportunity in Chicago. So he took that. So then we hired e bug. Bug had to not only you know spend all the time editing, the pinehurst travel show but in order to do that, he has to watch it offers like when you're there, you sort of have the story board in the story line and your head, and you remember what happened what didn't you can take your pretty prepared when you literally didn't even work for us like bug has to watch everything. So he has to actually relive the experience over the course of several leagues plus drone footage and then get to the editing on top of. Two podcasts a week we got a dozen promos are. So we put out videos reduced stream. So it takes time corona virus all that I'm into wearing the office where we always get footage to each other within minutes it's impossible to get. Forty gigs worth of footage via dropbox, and like have a running conversation. Coronavirus has made everything very tough I. Mean I think we've done a pretty goddamn good job of getting videos out while we've been in different parts of state. It's like crazy. I agree credits awesome. Tamper cells in the back here. Real quick. Thank you learnt you good and he had like a fan situation going on over there. So I credited the informational happened second off. So my some of my dad's place and my brother and his kids are over and I heard the classic like boom and then tears. So I was like I mean I know we're on a podcast. Let's just make sure everything's okay, and then my brothers trying to like put the kids down whatever because recording this you know at night. And he needed a fan in my room to Kinda give it some white noise. So I was just there to help quickly for those two minutes but everything's good. The Tears of subsidence I. Think you know the families back intact and everybody's okay. Do not say one thing about the travel series video. What's up guys? It's. Clouds. The only thing is that it's very evergreen content like there's nothing dated about other than like maybe you're a better golfer now to whether it comes out six months ago or two months now like. Yeah or like now it's not like there's news in there that like people already know. So it's all new to everybody and like you watch, you watch it a year from now it would be the same thing. So grant all day. And doesn't really to anyone it just doesn't matter I. DO THINK I had Roy sort of both. The right like it just doesn't matter. But I do think people enjoy the behind the scenes understanding our processes and that's essentially what habits are huge credit to Gone through watched all the stuff gotten like a the'll end gotten. been able to kind of put his finger on the pulse of the videos of what the series was like what the trip was like in convey that working with the rest of the team working a lot with Frankie who does a ton of production with? The sort of get it right and then present it in a way that we feel is authentic to our experience even though he was fucking there it's incredible. So we've got a bunch of those coming out while these are coming out. It's also going to be US Open. Week. We've got three amazing videos that we have shot that we want to bring out some that, and we just have Jake Bass and we got Eba Doug and those are fucking guys have to edit all. That shit that we just talked about. So they got a ton of work to do the doing a great job in the video was awesome. So big thank you to everyone at work hard at it. everybody viewing it. I think the people like it that have seen it so far and we're going to keep rolling them out because they're great and it's also you as it's cool to experience them really for the first time I don't remember anything that happened on the. Kind of unfortunate like that. I, remembered so little. At one point they said. Like when I was interviewing me or whatever for quotes during the actual video he was like, do you remember how it started? Do you remember like any hosie you played? You remember you went like birdie-birdie to win the match house like nothing honestly not a thing I like remember vaguely the golf course and really might takeaways are I couldn't believe how firm the place was, and that might be my only memory other than we played with you for like. That's all I know. Yeah down to the people like the people, the folks from Kingston Heat who work there who helped us out and got us set up when I saw them in the video and the guys they want me to take your photo house like do we had a real personal connection with that man and I just forgot all of like I just didn't know like that guy doesn't exist to me anymore. That's a shame. You know it is amazing. You experienced things like that and like that photo, for example, that's one memory that I don't have. I have nothing where I watched other things and I was like, Oh, I, remember that like there was a conversation that trended I had I think, I, asked channels. What do you think the other people on the plane are doing right now? Vaguely remembered that conversation. But I I know nothing of the photo I know nothing of the interactions that happen. It's amazing that just washed away it's gone I can't get back in and we talked about the flight coming off the plant I think that you know was portrayed while in the video the next few or even better I was talking with bogging with Jake. Earlier about how I think that the visuals are going to get progressively more stunning throughout the series with Peninsula Kings road than we were down on at that dunes course where we saw a rematch with the Australians and then we go to fucking as mania of all places you've got this bluewater with these mountains in these dunes. So it's just GONNA of get crazier and crazier. Videos out go to our page checkout four played golf on Youtube. You can now watch the entire North Carolina High I travel show you can watch the first. Of, Australia, which is Kingston he and you can enjoy yourself. Another way you can enjoy by the way during this, I have to mention earls frank just GonNa mention it that he pulled a transition from the car to his bedroom and has just reappeared seamlessly through the conversation. Seamlessly I am in two different states during this podcast like states of of of being I was driving like you said, you saw my background I had trees the I went off the screen for no less than a minute and I- reappeared back in my normal state, which is which was a It was a nice little move I. Mean. It's very David Blaine not to not to bring in. Current. World News but David blamed flew on a couple of balloons and guess what do you think of that impressive or not impressive because I saw? Not Impressive. I mean he learned how to breathe. I guess up in high altitudes. Pretty cool. But he was hard to stand and. Chef Donnie shout chef Donny Donny skydives every day. So it's like what the hell difference. I I'll say like what I saw from Lucas most of the classic was more impressive than than that hundred percent. I guess impressed until you learn how to breathe and high altitude that like he was breathing like a certain way. They said, it was like forty percent oxygen bear something like this. You gotta be able to control your breath and you know luke band at that point like you gotta learn how to breathe and your heart rate and all that. But. Yet, get a bunch of scientists build these balloons room. Or an astronaut or is he a fucking magician I? Don't that doesn't. He's done much more impressive stuff and I think this was more of like His daughter is there and he wanted to give her like a while factor. He actually wanted to do it over New York City because he said he grew up like watching a movie or show with his parents were like a guy would float above New York City, Manhattan skyline on Balloon. Recreate that for his daughter like like live out his his childhood dream, you want them to be the guy that flew over Manhattan with balloons and they wouldn't let them I. Guess because of weather like airplanes and all that stuff. So they went out into the desert was at the grand. Canyon. Like they were in the middle of nowhere somewhere in Arizona is where they were. Yeah. Yeah. So I mean it would have been cooler. I would've been pretty jacked up at like we've been out of our like go to like the edge of New York. City. Look out and see a guy floating around balloons or like look up in the sky when we're at. Work and see a guy with balloons night flying department and feet. The part that I did like is that from just from a distance, it just looks like a guy hanging from entre balloons like if you don't know about the harnessed about the scientists, you don't know about all that it's just funny that like a picture from a couple of hundred yards away it just looks like it looks like the movie up it looks like the guy just hanging from the balloons and I thought that was Kinda. Cool. But I think he's crazier stuff in the past for sure we have a guy that works at Barstool. Who is now Dave's like manager essentially he's like The helps Davies like Dave's new guy. Kevin. Bonner and he was Tom Brady is right him man for years and he was telling us that like Tom Brady did something with David Blame David Blaine actually like completely blew their mind to the point where like Kevin was saying that That David Blaine actually walked to an area of the house I got some random glassware time Brady's like cabinet and just ate it. He last and was like, well, like what are you doing? He trained his mouth to not believe and and swallow glass his his tongue in mouth nothing is left nothing black. You want add and nothing was done. It was all perfect and they went back and checked to see him. So he just practices eating less and like his tongue is I mean the guy probably can't taste mood now it's probably fake Tunc. Chechen part? Yes, I like this. Trent. I'm glad you've put on the light because I was GonNa say you know how you hate that your computer just reflects off of your glasses. It was as bad as ever even was you look like a demon there's crazy. Yeah I thought that I could just you know do the podcast in the light of my laptop, but it got really dark really fast and now I'm back to being my normal not great looking sell off about being busy bottle like I was just driving. Now back in my little corner, I have to set an a a an event while we do this podcast for tonight parcel side at it because I've been at work. All Day I haven't I chance. I have maybe ten minutes on three different platforms. PC, xbox playstation. So while we do this I'm going to have to do that rock. So people are going to get a real time look at whatever you suck up in the settings and for this event, they're gonNA know and here how it happened. So it's very exciting do at Saint. Andrews we need to cope with the name. That transit to kill the kill classic. That a lot of. What about the Bagpipes Open Do both I mean there's going to be another one tomorrow. Big You. In the back pocket. Okay we got off talking about while Frankie Tournament the classic or whatever Ti the cult classic. We're going. Bagpipe so. I don't like the Lanky I. We're. We're both the opposite today and I said killed classic just because it was the first Scottish thing I can think of, and then like five minutes later he turned around was like I don't think I love classic out because it sounds like a cult classic. Yeah. We'll. WE'LL FIGURE Fell right into it. Owens barstool transfusion go get it. I'm seeing now I think Pennsylvania State of Pennsylvania you got your welcome the enough to get by delivering. Now, you can just go into a little stores purchase it owens mixers, DOT com trying to find out the store nearest to you where can I go get it where it Kinda just car or numerous. I've already had a few cocktails and I'm trying to be safe in just go acquire the barstool transfusion by Owens Owens. Mexico's DOT COM against locator on their it also just go to barstool stored up arsenal sports, DOT com. Had delivered right to you and you're good to go. It's a delicious cocktail, our favorite girl drink we during around we love it after the round of the nineteen all anywhere and everywhere get yourself. They barstool transfusion by Owens and get the other islands. Sure. Tuna their very delicious reason make really good cocktails. You'RE GONNA love it trust me. Okay. we have as well. We just had the classic. Scottsdale. It was great. We had a our second ugly female has qualified Kim, and she is a professional golfer by professional doll in a few people chirping I go I. Guess Pros can just play out or you have realized that the winner of the Marshall Classic it's ten thousand dollars so that very nature. By winning the tournament, you just become not an avenue anymore. So as long as you have an updated legitimate, JEN handicap. You just play the aggregate veer fucking John Robb, and you're like a plus eleven complained the Marshall Glass you're GonNa have to give shots. That's fine. That's just the way it works. Anybody can play in the name name as long as you have legitimate in updated handicap. Now Scottsdale was awesome. Superfund to north is really good spot whether it was hot not too bad. They always talk about the dry heat thing that was pretty accurate and it went very it was fun snakes for dangerous faulk yet watch out snakes at working link Sane. One point. So the first picture that came out I actually at I thought was staged and it was a t- marker that have been set up a t backside in the shade of the side was a gigantic rattlesnake in just next to the gigantic rattlesnakes. Ed was a dead bunny and people thought. I thought I. This was a setup. This was just a real life of that. The Bro at true north was just ride around the course checking out the setup process in gigantic rattler had killed a bunny and then dragged him to the shade so that he could in the shade enjoy the dinner where he then just swallows the body eats. That was not the only snake occurrence. It turns out the next day. We had two guys who were drawn to teams. There were driving by think it was between the sixth and seventh holes, and as they drove by a rattlesnake was coiled up in the strike position several off the ground and his head was ready to strike and he was doing like the Hissar thing. And the you know the rumor is like if if that fucking thing bites you especially in like hits vein in someone else doesn't suck the venom out of there within like minutes you'll fucking dot that's what happened. Rattlesnake will kill you and I was thinking. There's no imaginable scenario where I'm shocked at anyone sucking of I. Think. If somebody gets bit by someone. This group is bit by a deadly snake and the answer is like sucked. We're all just one of muscles just don. None of us are capable of doing, right I don't know if I talked about him. You wouldn't suck the venom out. I've had to mean, would you know well Whoa? WHOA where you've had to know you would have to like. You said I've had to use I didn't mean to say that. I meant to say like you would have to I. Don't know how to do it. How would I even do it just be like start sucking? Yea. Wouldn't then I put on myself start pulling. Home now. The believe the way it works is that you toxins and things in your office in your saliva actually like fight and kill the dangerous part of the Venom. But if it gets into your bloodstream, your body can't like your blood cells can't fight that off on its own. The really amazing thing is that we see these snakes golf courses and we continue to operate that golf course like I think as soon as you see a snake like that and we thought In Tasmania, which you will see in future travel series episodes were makes you just think like let's just pack this thing up never golf out here again like the snakes eating and swallowing bunny rabbits all ours is a sign that says don't come here anymore but yet we still keep showing up and going to these golf courses and to the point where if you get that, you have to suck the venom at your friend's leg like, what are we doing? Who is the person to realize? You gotta suck the any mouth that's my question. That's a that's a good question. I'll say, Mrs Bucket I. Also people saying are, are they going to do something about snake and as we'll know the snake? We're not supposed to be in the desert people are not supposed to be here. Snakes are supposed to be. So if anything the snake is looking at like, what are you guys do it with this Breen Rockin teabag what are you guys? Do you not eating my buddy get the fuck out of here. So the snake that's like when if you jump in the ocean or something a shark gives you the to go take the shark shark s where the Shark Lips what are we granite? So we're out in the desert news not supposed to be. We're like hundreds of miles from the proper type of civilization like Manhattan Island Long, island. Those replaces humans are supposed to be in. It's fine. The desert is not supposed to be. So clearly, there's going to be crazy snakes and chip and there's more wildlife out there than I could imagine drive around this off course like there were bunnies everywhere everybody. I saw I just kept sneaking like that things dinner like within the next. Couple of weeks nothing's gone a giant Alber waiting. It was fucking terrifying. What was that? Frankie we'll go on. Is One of the worst series doing I tried to hold it in? A really crazy vulcan release. Happy. I couldn't hold it I tried to. I thought you were just. Getting visibly Sarah about the snakes. Out It was I tried to do a silence knees and to be honest I was in a house upstate and it had a cat and I haven't recovered from it and I've been sneezing and we slept on a bed in which there's cat hair and it was a beautiful bet that was beautiful place but I guess you just can't control the cat hair and I can't control my sneezing right now sneezing is gonNA. Problem. I guess I'm allergic to cats I never knew that I hate cats I don't. I'm not around Cath trying to avoid cats Yes. So that's happening. I really tried to go silent there and. What's going on? I didn't have time. But I'm sorry to I'm sorry to take away from that. Really. I didn't WANNA I didn't WANNA take from Denver stages. Another thing we're talking handicaps earlier someone tweeted asked apparently Jack Nicklaus carries a five point six in cab. Index. they found this up I mean. That just makes it impossible frost web. That's. he jacks Tony Jacklin posting his pocket score Jack. Neighbors going out there shooting like a sloppy eighty one and posting his scores in Jin. Asked. What makes me think that you guys would beat him like he's Kinda closer to your e to yeah was. Right, on rigs was like when we last recorded or is it a little lower nat now? It's similar. I'm like a five point nine right now. So it's right. So in replayed a longer course where like fucking eighty year old guy can't hit that far in similar handicap I would have more of a chance than I than I guess I originally thought, which is again crazy town. It is interesting to think of Jack Nicholas Having Jin because he he's Jack Nicklaus we do it because. We WanNa know where are we add like how good are we at golf and this number represents how good you are Jack Nicklaus not because he's Jack Nicholas he's one eighteen majors like I get the maybe as he gets older, he's like I'm not what I used to be. So what am I but if Jack Nicholas I don't even have a jet I just I just know that I'm Jack Nicholas continue my life that West I feel that just speaks to how competitive he is. Jim. He's playing all the tournaments I bet you. He plays a right to the five six or whatever he is. I think that almost gives me less confidence that I could beat them because I bet you he plays that number to take. Yeah. and. I saw a few people commenting Jackson five point six. That means when the win real match arises he's as zero. It's you. You know it's a hit grandkids. Hosts knows eighty one's winch. When things get real Jack Nicklaus is making birdies left and right and dusting holiest. So pardon me was were surprised to hear it and see it pardon me. Also now I get, it makes a little bit more sense than edited fucker. Course. They'll. Nicholson. Kinda run them through right now. Bill Nicholson had to be on our last night. He was on something because he tweets out on on Tuesday night. Dear tire this unsolicited fucking clouds tweet from Phil Mickelson deer. Tiger. Thank you for all. You've done for this great game golf. No one has benefited more than me and I just wanted you to know I appreciate you all you've done. That's all. Thank use. I don't know about you guys. Are immediately I thought something was wrong with tiger it. where it's like, say something nice to your friends while you still have a chance right? Like that's exactly what I thought and I was like holy fucking Shit. Is there something going on with Tiger Woods right now because why Phil Mickelson like using this platform to say like I love that man everything? He's ever done everything I've ever done is because of him like you don't know what you have until it's gone type situation I immediately search like tiger woods in Google like what's going on, right? Correct. No. I was the same way when I first saw that read like like Phil knew something that we didn't and I was glued to twitter for the next twenty minutes waiting for a horrific bomb to drop. But luckily, and fortunately it never came. So with that in mind what the Hell is going on with that tweet that's. Something something's going on like it's not everything he said in that tweet was true everything he said about tire is true in that everything that Phil has was elevated to a different level because of tiger woods all of that is true. But why on a random to night in September two Phil Mickelson, decide to tweet this out or I. Think that it's just out of the goodness of his heart which I don't believe or there's something coming where it's like this is going to be a promotional thing. I'm just very confused by the timing and the content of maybe he was like having a couple of Venos- in some way and he was like you know what? Maybe. It goes back to my other point where he was like you know I've never really said this about tiger and I'm GonNa say right now like I want this on the record navy's like sitting around with some tiles at dinner and they're talking about tiger. Woods spoken. Thank this guy right now twitter and it's going to cause a big star whatever. But at least I got it out there I got up I can sleep at night. I took it as like i. felt he was just sitting back. I definitely have a bottle of the maybe thought about an investment or the money's maybes man like life is pretty good and I'm just going to send to the world and thank tiger because. Maybe, he's on the back half of his career. Is Kinda just rest on his laurels and just a happy camper rock in those shades around his house and maybe a rogue and just saying Hey Kagera thanks for everything because at this without you it was like. A nightcap when one of the guys just like I'd fucking love you boy like you guys are the best they're not. It's just site. Well, yeah we're the best right now we're having a great time and so for refill, it had to be some right it had to be. His agent taxes about ahead at that fifteen million that we were hanging onto from last Jews. This finally came through and he was just having a couple of glasses and you know this is great and you know who do I have to thank for this like tiger. I don't know that I've talked enough about that tiger guy what a guy I'm gonNA fire tweet off ages said it was out of the clouds in even respond to a couple of people saying, no reason I just I just wanted to say. It could be a promotional thing. I don't like I. Don't know where. I find it hard path to follow where that. Would lead but either way what's crazy to entrench? The first thing trade said is that everything feels said in that tweet is absolutely true. So it's a little ridiculous that we have this reaction to it because of how just true he tweeted something that's true but you can't help Castillo Tiger rivals. You don't think that they love each other. They clearly are very different. People feels a little goofy tigers fucking golf machines. In here, he is reading this out about divers. It was very peculiar I. Yeah. I, hate to be cynical sort of looking around the edges of the tweet like looking for the reason that it was tweeted out but there I that's just the way that I'm wired. I guess now twenty twenty something something's got to happen with this. There's something going on with this tweet and he's GonNa get asked about it at the next you know whenever he's got. A microphone in front of his face the next time, and we'll see if there's some you guys are probably right. He probably had a few drinks. He decided he actually loves tiger despite getting dominated by him for two and a half decades but he wouldn't have his house bill smaller is bank account would have less commas in it is cars wouldn't be as nice I mean, it's nice. That's a reason to thank someone it just came out of pocket nowhere. Nowhere no, but that's gonNA feel like not not off brand for filled. There's just throw something out there when nothing's going on. So I think that's Part of his Mo and maybe it was just bored want to see the world go on fire in terms of social media, and then he sets it off and it did I mean. And I do I picture him in a row with a glass of Vino with his glasses on just laughing and said enough tweet up wonder what tiger has to say about this and what? I say about a publicly I'm sure tiger loves you know and and I think. It's Still Real. A lot of power with the social media and the off world now, which he knows it could have been as something as simple as his boys were kind of talking about it like crazy that we're here. He got his point of again tiger a fact, and then he probably not like what if I just tweet this out. This is a great compensation tweets out and then kind of see what happens we've. All done that we've done that with like arguments with buddies or you tweet out, what do you think on this or that, and then it elevates the conversation in it gives you more fodder in that conversation while those guys said now go so could have been as simple as that, but it just was so bad as by added clearly the second biggest name, the second biggest star of the last twenty, five years in golf. Who? To everybody's knowledge the way the media had kind of built it up over last who sort of hated. Had this fierce rival with the only guy ahead of him who just sends out like an I love you man tweets or the guy on a know. It's incredible and it's true. So I don't WanNa like I. Guess It's weird that we're breaking down this much because it's just true. He's tweet at all I don't think. We could spend three hours talking about because it was a very strange tweet. I had a couple of people because I logged in and I had a couple of people speculating that maybe fill is about to retire. After he won his chains tour event, a people were really people were trying to decode what it was because it was a very strange and out of left field tweet I do not think Phil Mickelson is going to retire anytime soon he's playing too well and he seems. Very healthy able to perform for a few more years. So you know I very much look forward to fill answering questions in front of a microphone being like what was the reason for this I knew he responded to a couple of tweets. We don't WanNa hear in his own verbal words like breaking down that night September I, like what the fuck is going up. To the I was drinking this really any breaks down which bottle align it was sort of how much it was ending gets into. You know so I was channeled. Hope he breaks down that way because you know he's going to be prepared. Phil knows what crashes is GonNa? Get. Right. It was a great tweet. It was something that that that it will lead to much more as we now with and they have such an interesting history I mean Phil couldn't win a major enver. Well, tiger was just ticking them off left and right they were paired together at the Ryder Cup when they totally blew it and imploded and fill up against a fence tigers standards stare. Everybody thought they hate each other. Then in I think it was Hank Hanes Brooke where it came out that Hank says, the tiger thought feel was a complete phony in. So they've got this whole history did they come together with the match and they're kind of like buddy buddy because they're all gonna make millions and millions of dollars. So is that just ribbon? So then this to come out of the clouds, it's just another interesting chapter in the film Nicholson in Tiger Woods I'm trying to figure out a way he gets it back to. Coffee for wellness 'cause that's his big thing right now right every opportunity it's every time he's on camera. He's talking about like. Well, it's all because of this great coffee mix of mine and he's talking about coffee for wellness I feel like somehow although doesn't seem possible right now how that tweet somehow leagues back to a coffee for wellness promotion that would be my best guess. My other guests is that he was just finished feelings after a few glasses of wine and he just felt like saying that those are the two options right now. Good fulfill the golf world's a better place would still having twitter for sure. It's wild to think that a year a little over a year ago like filled half twitter. Is the only been on for year that's it was two years because they were promoting the match. It's been two years. Two? Years. Now. I Don time is confusing to me anymore. Two years. Yeah. We were going crazy when he had it he was firing off stuff like and stuff going em's heels been those been a really good twitter. A tweeter we thought we knew he was gonna because he's got those amy jokes he's got. He's The dad of the PGA tour. The Dad jokes thumbs up the smiles the quirkiness he does well, order I. Mean he kind of has blue. We he gives us blue balls all the time like in stuff comment on stuff. Opponent we think we're GONNA get. We're GONNA real, and then he's just gone forever. With US though hills sneaky little bastard. been to fucking years he joined in August twenty. Are Still, Yeah that Tiger tweet of one, hundred, twenty, six, thousand likes like that's nothing that's nothing to sneeze at I. Keep saying that I talked. Does that mean man everyone always says that Shit didn't we look it up a couple of episodes. Need that. I know it's like a frankie back of this means like back in the day sneezing. A form of clearing your brain and it was it was known to be of the upper class to be able to sneeze on command back in like renaissance days as so like if something was not worth your time, it was nothing to sneeze at