4 Burst results for "Sheila Cuba"

"sheila cuba" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:41 min | 1 year ago

"sheila cuba" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"We are Bloomberg business. We come master along with Tim Stenkovic. Let's bring in the team. Kathleen Hays, Global economics and policy editor at Bloomberg News. She's back in our interactive brokers Studio. Dave Wilson Stock Center of Bloomberg News on the remote access from New Jersey. Kathleen. You had a few minutes to look at these headlines. What stands out? Well, I just like to start with what the bond market is done, Carol because made very careful note of where it Woz and the was flat, just made of the tenure was down. 1/10 of tenure is now down. 11 30 seconds. The 30 Year bond, which was down 333 30 seconds now down a full point. Why Kathleen? Do you ask? Well because the Fed as mostly expected, apparently, at least in the policy statement, has said nothing about the possibility of number one increasing the number of bonds they've been buying. That wasn't so expected, but the very least some signal That they are ready to start changing the composition of the bond. Maturity is right. Go out the curve by more long term bonds. Make sure that that 10 year which the yield is currently 0.94 people are going. Oh, my God, What if it goes above 1%? Well, the Fed apparently is not ready to say that yet. Certainly the press conference Jay Powell will be asked about that. I think what surprised me I guess. No. Whenever the Fed one of the headlines here is the Fed activity, saying that economic activity employment have continued to recover, Okay, so some people are really concerned about even a negative first quarter, for example, something that didn't change median forecast showing rates near zero through 2023. So the doc plots will not have changed. And of course, they're revising their economic and inflation forecast, etcetera, etcetera. But the headlines one more thing We throw in that they're sending the temporary dollars swap lines and repurchase facility because that's just showing the doors open, too. Overseas central banks reaching out if they need a little help from the Fed, and I forgive me if you said this. I'm like been listening to you going through the Bloomberg, the Fed Forecasting shows five of 17 officials. All right. Hi during 2023. So, looking way out, Tim, We gotta talk about the equity market reaction to Yeah, We certainly certainly do. I mean, is anything surprising equity investors right now. If you want to come in on that. Yeah, sure doesn't look like it because you had a little bit of fluctuation in the S and P 500 after the meeting results were released, but I mean, you come out and S and P 500. It's up 1/10 of a percent at this point. And if you look at things as they shake out in terms of industry groups, it's a familiar kind of story. You know, the top performer among the 11 main groups. Consumer Discretionary. Two categories includes retailing and therefore clues. Amazon dot com and the entire gain in that index can be explained by the fact that Amazon is up 1.8%. And then right after that technology stocks, and certainly they've been a story, you know for some time, but seven of the 11 groups are lower utilities taking the biggest hit talk about an interest rate sensitive groups. So you know what we're seeing. Not really, Ah, whole lot in what the Federal Reserve released to change investor's minds. It would seems when it comes to stocks here. So it's fair to say Dave that there were no big surprises, at least when it came to investors in this latest Fed meeting. Sure doesn't look that way. I mean, not a whole lot of fluctuation in share prices, That's for sure. Yeah, it's interesting to it. I'm just going through our Bloomberg live blogged love. This. Notably, officials did not change their tone with respect to economic conditions, reiterating that the recovery will depend on the course of the virus and that the pandemic will continue to weigh on conditions in the near term. They say it's opposes considerable risks. The outlook in the medium term. Um, you know, we're watching this, Kathleen. You know, it's so interesting. I just think about fed decisions of the past where we were also focused on the rates for often. You know, but it's not really about that. It's really about what they're doing to either help out this economy because of the pandemic well, and e think you're right to point out the fact that yes, it's still going there still saying that the economy is going to depend on the virus, and we could even add to that. Well, vaccines. How quickly can you get them out? Right, etcetera. I think it's interesting, too. When you look at the change in the summary of economic projections, the steps which that's where the doc plots for the interest rate hikes come from. People were saying, including you, Lena Sheila, Cuba and R Bloomberg Economics team before this came out that undoubtedly their outlook for unemployment because it's come down a lot faster than expected would be much brighter. And in fact, they do, say the 2020 jobless rate 6.7. They had forecasted 7.6. And for next year it will get down to 5.0 versus 5.5. You know those unemployment rates that looked like the olden days right before we got to those 50 year lows. The GDP forecast a little bit more optimistic on inflation, though they really have a little bit of improvement, but not much. They don't see us getting the economy getting Tonto 2% on the core inflation rate until 2023, but I think that's kind of what they've been saying for a while, Kathleen, I do want to ask you. We were talking about it early on are planning call that if During the Powell press conference. If news comes down about a stimulus plan or any progress, significant progress, um would we assume that everybody in the room will have access to headlines? And that is something that they could bring up? You know, that's really touching, Carol. Cause I remember thinking now you're absolutely right. The Times I've been there. You have to, uh, well, certainly the lock up because you go in early, then you give over your cellphone. However, you are allowed to have laptops because that's how you put the headlines together to flash them. So, yes, I think it during the presser. They will. I thought you're gonna ask me how Jay Powell react and I was gonna say he will probably do a happy down..

Kathleen Hays Federal Reserve Bloomberg Bloomberg News Jay Powell Tim Stenkovic Carol Amazon New Jersey Wilson Stock Center R Bloomberg Economics editor Dave Lena Sheila
"sheila cuba" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:32 min | 3 years ago

"sheila cuba" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Bob moon. We begin today's program with the US economy. It will be a key week for fed decision on Wednesday, followed by the jobs report on Friday for more. We're pleased to welcome Blumberg chief you us economist Carl Riccadonna and Bloomberg economists Yelena Sheila, Cuba. And Karlovy start with you. The fed decision of big question. Mark, I think it's fed indecision at this meeting. There's really not much for them to think about in terms of rate action or policy action at this time that doesn't mean there's not a bigger pictures behind the scenes, they're evaluating. So for instance, they're still wondering about some details about the end of quantitative tightening in what the composition of the balance sheet. Should look like thereafter that should really match the overall composition of treasury issuance. So that's one thing. They're debating the other that they're contemplating which I don't expect them to reach a decision on is there inflation targeting framework and how they have under delivered or underperformed relative to their objective of two percent for most of this cycle. There's a there's a big Chicago fed conference coming up in June where they'll be. Reviewing academic research on this topic. So again, not reaching a conclusion, but this is something that's happening behind the scenes, you Lena is the economy still fluid at this point. Or were you seeing jello set up a little bit? Absolutely. I think the economy's doing just fine. And the recent data actually telling us that thinks I improving after some sort of a law that we observed in the beginning of the first quarter. So for example, durable goods new orders at telling us that thinks I improving in the factory sector, despite some inventory overhang, which really weighed on activity in the beginning of the year. Retail sales are doing much better. We saw a spike in auto sales so thinks improving going into the current quarter Carl are concerned easing. Let me put it that way. I think the concern is easing. And we'll certainly be watching for some of the commentary around the fed meeting for confirmation of that. From policymakers they highlighted the weakness at the start of the year. But what was missing I think was their characterization that much of that weakness was temporary or transitory a phrase. We heard a lot when Janet Yellen was chair. And that was a way to dismiss soft patches as being something that that doesn't really lead to a re shaping of the broader outlook. I think that's going to be a focus in the commentary around this fed meeting, if they're dismissing the weakness is transitory that means they could be mulling the possibility of stronger economic performance, they're projecting in the back half of the year in my mind that means that if we're seeing stronger economic performance, and maybe even a lower unemployment rate than they're projecting. We could in fact, the rate hikes start to creep back into the periphery even though in the markets right now the sentiment is looking for rate cuts. Well, since you bring up the unemployment rate, let's talk about. The jobs report coming up on Friday lane. Are we seeing improvement there? I think we could see actually a decline in the employment rate to what the fed is currently expecting for the end of this year. So we might see a decline to three point seven percent in the unemployment rate just because jobs job gains size so strong. And we might see that happening in this report. So we expect a slightly better number than the consensus. But we two hundred ten thousand and we think that would just it's just gonna be another strong report with acceleration in which growth two hundred ten thousand. It sounds like a good number to me. That's a very good number, and that's well in excess of what we would need to see to continue nudging the unemployment rate lower typically to stabilize the unemployment rate, we would need job gains. If about one hundred thousand so we're talking about twice the pace of. What would be necessary to stabilize unemployment? So I think Yelena onto an important notion here that unemployment is going to grind lower over the course of this year, and that's going to be one more surprising element to monetary policy makers one about wage growth. I think we will see some acceleration in this report we saw a little bit of a takedown in terms of growth in wages in the previous report, but overall trend is full wages to accelerate. Labor market remains very tight, and that will continue to push wages higher. This will have implications for inflationary pressures. So one channel through which we can actually see a pickup in inflation is rental inflation because wages will push rents higher. We will see that in the CPI data, for example. And we can we also observe some shortages in vacancy rates that will also push inflation higher. Bye week spectacle Filaret shin in inflationary pressures by the year end. Our thanks to Bloomberg. Chief economist Carl Riccadonna and Bloomberg economists you'll initial active coming up on Bloomberg daybreak weekend. The earnings parade continues on Wall Street with apple alphabet and a slew with healthcare companies set to report.

Bloomberg Carl Riccadonna Yelena Sheila fed US Bob moon Chicago Janet Yellen Blumberg Chief economist treasury Cuba Lena Mark seven percent two percent
Investors brace for a roller-coaster week ahead with Fed decision

0 Show

03:08 min | 3 years ago

Investors brace for a roller-coaster week ahead with Fed decision

"It will be a key week for fed decision on Wednesday, followed by the jobs report on Friday for more. We're pleased to welcome Blumberg chief you us economist Carl Riccadonna and Bloomberg economists Yelena Sheila, Cuba. And Karlovy start with you. The fed decision of big question. Mark, I think it's fed indecision at this meeting. There's really not much for them to think about in terms of rate action or policy action at this time that doesn't mean there's not a bigger pictures behind the scenes, they're evaluating. So for instance, they're still wondering about some details about the end of quantitative tightening in what the composition of the balance sheet. Should look like thereafter that should really match the overall composition of treasury issuance. So that's one thing. They're debating the other that they're contemplating which I don't expect them to reach a decision on is there inflation targeting framework and how they have under delivered or underperformed relative to their objective of two percent for most of this cycle. There's a there's a big Chicago fed conference coming up in June where they'll be. Reviewing academic research on this topic. So again, not reaching a conclusion, but this is something that's happening behind the scenes, you Lena is the economy still fluid at this point. Or were you seeing jello set up a little bit? Absolutely. I think the economy's doing just fine. And the recent data actually telling us that thinks I improving after some sort of a law that we observed in the beginning of the first quarter. So for example, durable goods new orders at telling us that thinks I improving in the factory sector, despite some inventory overhang, which really weighed on activity in the beginning of the year. Retail sales are doing much better. We saw a spike in auto sales so thinks improving going into the current quarter Carl are concerned easing. Let me put it that way. I think the concern is easing. And we'll certainly be watching for some of the commentary around the fed meeting for confirmation of that. From policymakers they highlighted the weakness at the start of the year. But what was missing I think was their characterization that much of that weakness was temporary or transitory a phrase. We heard a lot when Janet Yellen was chair. And that was a way to dismiss soft patches as being something that that doesn't really lead to a re shaping of the broader outlook. I think that's going to be a focus in the commentary around this fed meeting, if they're dismissing the weakness is transitory that means they could be mulling the possibility of stronger economic performance, they're projecting in the back half of the year in my mind that means that if we're seeing stronger economic performance, and maybe even a lower unemployment rate than they're projecting. We could in fact, the rate hikes start to creep back into the periphery even though in the markets right now the sentiment is looking for

Carl Riccadonna Janet Yellen Yelena Sheila Lena Blumberg Bloomberg Chicago Cuba Treasury Mark Two Percent
"sheila cuba" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

02:21 min | 3 years ago

"sheila cuba" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"It. That's definitely present. That's wild. Yes. Is amazing. Thank you so much for coming in today. Thank you so much Francis. It was really better. Hey, give you is the CEO of muscian data. Now, are you using airborne co-ord- Masa or just the Masa? Flour called mistaken can find in the grocery store. We have a great recipe for fresh tortillas. You can make it home from the chef Alex Deepak, you can find that on splendid table dot org. Coming up. Here. You are with this beautiful sauce chili sauce with tomatoes, garlic and chicken, and you've got a tray full of tortilla chips that you've made and this will feel strange if you've never done it before. But you need to drop those chips into the SaaS and stir them in that's Tucker Shaw on the best reason to turn your chips Saudi Sheila Cuba's, I'm Francis lamb. And this is the splendid table from APM American public media. Next time on the New Yorker radio hour, author and activist Janet mock on growing up transgender in Hawaii. The fact that, you know, the department of education hired a trans woman like my everyday life was changed and shifted. I didn't have to look to law and order or pet detective or silence of the lab. Trans people represented Janet mock Dick's time on the New Yorker radio hour tonight at seven on ninety three point nine FM WNYC. On January eighth more than one million Florida felons can officially registered to vote. My biggest concern is I don't want seven supervisors of election coming up with their own way to the holiday this person eligible, but is the state ready to roll out the law that voters passed in November, I'm tansy Nevada. And that's next time on the takeaway, weekday afternoons at three on ninety three point nine FM. This is the splendid table from APM American public media the show for curious cooks and eaters Francis lamb. Thank you. When I was in high school in suburban New Jersey my cousin,.

Francis lamb APM American Janet mock Alex Deepak New Jersey CEO Tucker Shaw tansy Nevada WNYC Flour department of education muscian Sheila Cuba Florida Hawaii Dick