17 Burst results for "Sg Mc Capital"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Movements you have seen in race and in the equities market. But overall, we don't expect narrative to move too much. Max, you sound pretty comfortable. You sound like you're pretty okay with current conditions. I mean, I almost wish I had you to tuck me in at night. What are you worried about over the next 6 to 12 months? I am very worried about things out there in the market. It's not like I do not see risk, and we do not serious. Clearly risks are there. But as long as you know what the risks are and you can put a probability to it, then also you can use the capital that you have available. And clearly, geopolitical risks are the ones that we keep looking out for. And again, we're not out of the Woods. We're not saying that from here on, we're going to have a nice rally in equities and in bonds. We do think that things will get tougher in Q one and Q two of next year. But you know much better than me that the market discount things earlier, right? So probably when you're going to feel the real economic pain in Main Street, which is going to come over the next two quarters, give or take. The market might have already discounted that. Am I ready to be looking at the future? And you might have a big decoupling in terms of the financial conditions in the market and in the real economy like we've seen in 2020 COVID. And second half of next year might not be as bad as some of the people think. All right, max bondo, thanks for looking into your crystal ball forest max's CEO at SG MC capital. Thanks for joining us on Bloomberg daybreak Asia. And one of the big variables with all the geopolitical risk as well. The oil price, we got WTI trading a little weaker again, 71 76
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of potential. I think you're looking for Goldilocks and Christmas all wrapped into one Mac. So I hope you're stalking this field on the 25th of December. Max volunteer there are on his big dollar called max. Thank you very much for being with me. SG MC capital CEO and finder joining me this morning right here on Bloomberg. I apologize for the cough. The markets in focus every business day. The Bloomberg markets podcast with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. Are there some sectors that you want to have more or less exposure to? We've got to vaccinate the whole world. I'm nemesis of the days Wall Street action. What's the thought on apple here for Bloomberg and diligence? Bloomberg opinion and influential newsmaker. The bond market was the boss. Bloomberg markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. Subscribe today at Bloomberg radio dot com. The Bloomberg business app or iTunes. Before and after the pandemic. Is it driven by politics or by science? That may be how we keep track of our lives from here on out. What do you think the political effects of that impatience will be? And through it all, there's been Bloomberg. We begin on Capitol Hill the most accurate business world and healthcare news before and after. The fundamentals do not justify this price action. Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com, Bloomberg, the world is listening. Would you say it's more important to gather information fast or to have it first or to be the most accurate? They can really move the needle when it comes to programs. The budget only surely is the level of support you get from companies for this. What if you don't have to choose? It also has enormous portions for the labor market. How do they get ahead of different administrations we see this move towards digital currencies? Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com, Bloomberg, the world is listening. We used to take our freedom of movement for granted not anymore. It's not just that people will work for the airlines and it's natural to feel grateful for the things that kept you going. Does America have a chance to lose our advantage? Can we get to herd immunity? Fast enough so that will be in good shape. But really, we were just doing our jobs. Oxford University is starting a study on patients who've recovered from COVID, Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. Bloomberg, the world is listening. Remember guys learned of violent protests erupting
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Economist Alvaro Pierre and Kansas City fed president Esther George Wall Street rally Tuesday on the back of corporate earnings and the latest fed comments. Goldman Sachs had predicted that the U.S. benchmark yield will trade at 4% or higher through 2024. And the U.S. was scared of recession. Interesting take max bonder is with SG MC capital CEO and founder. So Goldman say there will be no rate cuts next year. And you would concur with that. We're in the higher for longer trajectory. Do you think 3.75% on ten year government bonds reflects higher for longer trajectory? It does not reflect that yet. The ten year rates need to inch higher and need to go 4% roughly in order to really bake that in. But it's very important that the no cut for next year needs to be priced in by the market because it currently is not. The market is currently thinking that the fed is going to be able to pivot earlier and actually start cutting rates much earlier than what we think will happen. And the fed will not risk being behind the curve again. It can't given everything that has happened last year. And that's a very important fact that which currently the market is not pricing in and therefore the ten year needs to inch a little bit higher. Again, not massively, but it has to get back to that 4% kind of handle. So there's no cup next year. Does that crush the bear market rally in equity? It will definitely put a top to it, so we've seen quite a decent rally over the last few weeks. In order for the movement to continue from here, you need to keep getting positive information and updates with respect to earnings, especially and data with respect to the microeconomics of the companies itself. But from here we think of further rally up is the unlikely and more importantly, the question is whether it will be sustained. The minutes this evening coming out are going to be very important because again, if the fed's narrative pushes out the conviction that rates are going to be higher and we're not pivoting anytime soon, of course that's going to put pressure on equity valuations and you're likely to see a bit of a correction. But the recent laws are likely to hold as well. Okay, so just Excuse. me. Excuse me. I'm just going to take it. One of those that in a moment is imposed for tall. This is not supposed to happen on the IFD. But it is. There you go. So if we get a hawkish set of minutes from the FOMC tonight, what would be a very hawkish stance would it be shifting the narrative on the terminal rate? What would be a very hawkish delivery from them? Well, hawkish first of all brings a 75 increase back in the cards at the upcoming meeting. And they might very hawkish could actually mean seeing a terminal rate higher than 5 and a half and closer to 6%. Now, we doubt that this is going to be happening, but there are definitely going to want to put the fear of a potential 75 hike coming at the upcoming meeting. Because again, that is going to push back to this whole pivoting kind of belief that is spreading around the market. And again, this is going to be negative for equity valuation. So in terms of full hawkishness, that's probably as far as it could go. Again, we don't expect that to happen, but we expect the narrative again to be pretty strong against this easing too early kind of speaking that we're getting around the market. It's interesting how we see such a virulent move in the very short end in the in the kiwi rates. I know that they considered a hundred basis points. It's a very hawkish set of narrative from the RB NZ, but I'm very surprised that we haven't seen a more virulent reaction in the rest of the bond market on the back of that are you. Well, definitely the today's decision has been a bit of a surprise. The market was not expecting that. And of course, the first thing that is going to move is the effects market because that's the most liquid one. That's the one where you're going to see the bigger kind of movements in the markets. In terms of bonds, it always takes a little bit of time, and then again, the short end will react a little bit more, but it's going to be more muted because they obviously are going to be discounting what is the future data looking like, what the expectations of the microeconomic growth is going to be. And on the longer end, it's going to be even less elastic than that because of course you're going to take into consideration all the futures expectations, which are not exactly linked to today's decisions on rates. So if you believe that you're not going to get rate cuts next year and we're going to be in this higher full longer zone. Why then are you starting to sell the dollar? Is it that the yield gap closes with other central banks? You want to be longer of Euro. You want to be longer of other currencies relative to the dollar. Is this a relative value trade or is it an outright short? It's a number of factors. First of all, we have to realize that we're coming on the back of a very strong dollar appreciation over the last year. So the dollar is very expensive compared to the other currencies first. Number two, the fed is definitely been the most hawkish of the central banks out there so far. So if you really get a change with respect to the narrative of the central banks, where the fed says that we've done most of the work so far, of course, there's more to be done, but not at the same pace, while the other central banks have to catch up automatically, you're going to get the first narrowing in the favor of USD. So against the USD, so obviously that's going to bring a little bit of depreciation potential in the dollar. In addition to that, if you do get some kind of stabilization in the geopolitical environment and the overall markets, if you get a little bit of risk on back, obviously what that is going to be doing is a dollar depreciation potential. So all of these three factors and again keeping in mind they were coming from very strong levels for the greenback. Could mean that over the coming one to two quarters, you can really start getting the turnaround for the dollar and the for getting short dollar trades in portfolios. This is definitely attractive. Now, of course, not everything at the same time, but it's interesting in terms
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Biden administration more specifically is curtailing Chinese access to some very critical technology used to manufacture semiconductors, and then there's an issue like Boeing, not necessarily having access to the Chinese market and its rival Airbus, basically locking in on the market for narrow body jet aircraft. Where are you in terms of U.S. China right now as a factor in putting to money to work on the mainland? Well, we do not expect any positive news anytime soon. This is something which I started many years ago and it's going to stay with us again for many years. Clearly with these larger geopolitical issues, it's going to be a little bit of a give and take. So what is China position going to be with respect to what is happening in Ukraine and Russia and how that then plays out into business potential and how much of semiconductor the U.S. potentially will keep exporting to China going forward. Those are clearly interlinked. But the bottom line is we don't expect any market moving headlines in the short term, something which is going to stay with us or the foreseeable futures on the floor investors just need to keep that in mind when they put money at work. I just want to get your thoughts on some of those comments we've had from Chris Walla, the fed governor talking about or really repeating the mantra. We got a ways to go on rates yet. Do you feel like markets are perhaps overpricing the chance of an impending fed pivot here? Yes, absolutely. That has been true for quite some time and it remains true. Not so much, maybe with respect to what the final rate interest rate is going to be, because roughly, I think the market is more or less on spot 25 more or less. But the important thing is that the pricing cut already in the second half of next year. And we really doubt that that will happen. The in order for the fed to pivot, it will take a lot longer. They will need to see more confirmation that inflation is coming down. And therefore, they're going to keep the rates higher for longer, which is something which the market has still no price. I don't know if you're a big believer in cryptocurrencies, max, but we're about to discover that very quickly. I mean, when you look at this chaos that has unfolded as a result of the collapse of the crypto exchange, FTX and the way that it's impacting sentiment, could you weigh in here? I mean, how significant is this? This looks like it's going to be extremely significant because when you get one of the major players basically collapsing overnight, going from multi-billion dollar valuations to filing for chapter 11, clearly and especially for a relatively nascent kind of industry. It's going to be extremely relevant. It's going to put pressure on the entire industry. It's going to raise questions of whether other marketplace we're doing similar things. And just with respect to the whole industry is going to really come under pressure and it's going to come under pressure with respect to other companies that were playing in that sector as well. So we do expect things to get worse from here. All right, max montorio CEO at SG MC capital thanks so much for joining us in just an interesting aside on that Bloomberg's running a chat. Buffett versus Bitcoin Warren Buffett, of course, once called Bitcoin rat poison squared, on that chart, Buffett's pulling ahead again. Are there any lessons? We'll have a little bit more on the crypto collapse at FTX for you and just a moment. This is Bloomberg. This is the Bloomberg money minute. The busy holiday shopping season isn't shining as bright. As toy makers like Mattel and Hasbro say consumers may be spending less. Retailers have been trying to lure in customers with price cuts. A major difference when we think about this holiday season is inventory. So inventory generally is a lot higher this
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Leaders actually encouraged the threats of violence, the violence, the denial of an election. And so the American people said, wow, this ain't for us. And the house still in the balance, Democrats pretty much able to run the table is what they're going to have to do. Meanwhile, House speaker Nancy Pelosi says the debt ceiling fight will continue into the lame duck session. Whatever the outcome we're on the path to taking our country to a better place than was being dragged down by the other side. And she says, she will continue to have input into democratic values. In San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter, this is Bloomberg. All right Doug, thanks, Ed, let's get to max spondy, our guest for the half hour maxi is the CEO at SG MC capital joining from a Singapore. Max, thanks for being with us. I think we have to look at the rally in property stocks in Hong Kong right now. You're familiar with the news that broke late Friday where Beijing is issuing some sweeping directives to kind of rescue the sector overall. Do you think this is durable? Does it last from here or is this kind of a one day wonder and then we keep our fingers crossed? Well, whether the rally continues, of course, that remains to be seen. We expect it could just given the magnitude of the fall before that. But the more important thing is that this could really put a floor at least to how much this stock can fall. Because if you're starting to get the change of narrative as we have, so China getting more involved and more ready to actually help out the sector. Which is critical, of course, for them. Then automatically what you're going to see is at least the floor I've been put there. Whether the rally continues, again, depends on what the actual actions are going to be announced, but from here on, at least support is likely to be coming in. Yeah, so is this just a first step? Would you be putting money into that market at the moment? With respect to the property market, we still prefer to watch for the moment. Reason being is that it is extremely volatile. It is extremely headlines risk prone. And therefore, we think there are better opportunities elsewhere within the Chinese market. But definitely it's something which is going to be impacting the overall risk momentum and risk environment for this keeps going. The rest of the unseen and the Chinese stocks are likely to do well as well. But it's not just a property market and the policy or the changes that we've been hearing about. I mean, Beijing has throttling back on some COVID restrictions. Yeah, they are still going to adhere strictly speaking to COVID zero. But are things softening in the way that might invite you to take a look, maybe dip your toe in the water, so to speak and some selective areas of the Chinese equity market well, let's start by saying that we had the Chinese exposure to start with and we have always kept it because again, valuations are attractive and continue to be attractive with respect to the new policies that are taking. Well, clearly it's with respect to how investors were positioned as well. Because up until two weeks ago, there was an extreme pessimism. And before there were absolutely positioned for the very stringent environment to continue. Now we're seeing a little bit of opening up and some change in narrative, which is going to be supporting a little bit more property and again loosening up with respect to COVID. So automatically that is going to have an immediate positive reaction on stocks because you're starting to get investors coming back in. Again, further gains from here are likely, but the more important thing is that at least we get a base. Just very quickly, max, we do have ion a rallying pretty hard as commodities another way to play this. Definitely that's another way to play and they have been coming off a bit of a decline. So definitely it's something that investors may take a look at, keeping in mind that volatility there as well is also quite high. Max, when we continue the conversation, maybe we bring in geopolitical risk into the discussion. Since we have this meeting this
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Else by 2040. Guterres says the key though in the long run is to stop global warming and not try to adapt to it. Taiwan's defense ministry says China flew 31 planes on the median line of the Taiwan straight flying into its 80 IZ, it also says 63 PLA warplanes and four ships were identified on the islands surrounding the region. The items have been a point of concern. The islands have for a point of concern for a number of months, growing Chinese presence. On the eve of the midterm elections in the U.S., most projections show Republicans taking control of the house with the Senate still a toss up. The candidates are back in their home districts campaigning, the leaders of their respective parties campaigning, possibly the hottest Senate races in Pennsylvania, fetterman, and Oz, and Philadelphia mayor Jim Kenney says the vote count. Well, the vote count may take days. The tens of thousands of people voting by mail and will take some time to count all the ballots. And remember by law staffers are not allowed to start opening and counting these ballots until election day is over. He's asking patients and that's concerting to Michael waldman from the NYU center for justice on Bloomberg's a balance of power today. We have now tens of millions of people prompted by the former president who don't believe the results of the last election, and there are many candidates running for Secretary of State and governor all over the country who are election deniers. And if some of them lose their elections, are they going to be willing to accept the results? That, rather than people causing trouble at the polls, is what worries me more. Yeah, so he says it may take some days and to develop the theme of the balance of power going forward. And speaking of that, House speaker Nancy Pelosi has told CNN today that the attack on her husband will have an impact on her decision whether or not to retire. She did not want to elaborate. In San Francisco, I met Baxter, this is Bloomberg. All right Doug, thank you, Ed. Let's get to our guest max panduri is with us max's founder also the CEO of SG MC capital. He joins us from Singapore. It's all about inflation these days. We can debate whether or not it's peaking max, but the fed nonetheless seems resolute in its campaign to fight it. How much longer do we have to go in this battle? Do you have a sense Well, we do have to go a bit longer because once again, they're not in a position where they can lose image again. Clearly the coming on the back of let's say a mistakenly view of last year of the transitory phase. So clearly they can not change course. They can not pivot obviously too early. So we need to see rates going higher. We'll probably get to 5 and a quarter, 5 and a half, roughly, that's the levels that we expect. But more importantly, they're going to be at that level for longer. So now the market thinks we're going to start cutting already by all the September of next year. We think that is unlikely. So rates are likely to remain there. For a bit longer in order to really bring the man down. Yet equities are rising in the U.S. here in the Asia Pacific as well, why is that if there's more rights pain to come? Well, first of all, you have to distinguish between short term and longer term. So short term, you will get volatility and you're going to get tactical bounces. And then keep in mind that the midterm elections are coming. And past the event, you could see a bit of a relief rally. And you do have a number of names which are looking a little bit more attractive from a valuation perspective. So the fact that the medium term still looks challenging doesn't mean that we can not get short term bounces, especially based on tactical and technical level. So we do expect the two continue, but of course medium term. Do you think it's possible that the fed can even get close to engineering a soft landing Ed yard Denny? This is kind of surprising to me. I mean, today Ed, who is the head of Jordanian research was saying he sees his firm seas as 60% probability of a soft landing. Is that likely? We think that's a little bit optimistic. So I like to be optimistic, but I think 60% is a little bit too high in terms of base case. Soft landing as time goes by, it's going to become harder and harder, especially as long as inflation remains stubbornly high. So let's cut it relatively short. I mean, the only way for inflation to really come down is for unemployment to go up because inflation is now up because of strong consumption and stronger demand and consumption comes down only when you get less job security. And that comes only unfortunately when unemployment goes up. And that's when we're going to be seeing inflation come down and potentially the fed starting to pay that. But for that to happen, you're going to have repercussions on the real economy on the social environment and the four soft lending is going to be tough. I'm not even seeing a super hard landing, but we're somewhere around the medium lending. So if we can agree that interest rates are headed higher, it's a little curious that we had the amount of corporate debt coming to market today
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To stay home almost a million people. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is calling on the globe to send united message to China about any use of force regarding Taiwan exclusive Bloomberg interview. UK prime minister Rishi sunak told the House of Commons today that he is delaying the economic strategy announcement until November 17th, Chinese leaders omitted from an official account of how Xi Jinping chose new leadership team. They're saying it's an apparent plan to change policy from including black elder I'm sorry party elders in major decisions. South Korean defense minister Lee Jong su says Korea needs to be more aggressive and in stance of saying that if Kim even attempts to use any nuclear weapons, it will bring an end to his regime. In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter. This is Bloomberg right back to Sidney Paul. All right, thanks very much, Ed, I guess this half hour is max pandori. He is CEO of SG MC capital and max when we left off you were talking about how a rise in unemployment would be one of the key things that causes the fed to make a dovish pivot. Should that happen though? Other risks come into focus as well. What do you consider to be the risk of a recession in the U.S. and more broadly? Well, we believe the U.S. will enter a recession. And the unemployment rising is really the only way for inflation to come down. Because you need to get a demand down and need to get growth down. And that's the only way that inflation is going to come down from the current levels to roughly in line to what the fed thinks. With respect to economic risk, of course, that means that there's going to be less growth and there's going to be less demand. But that's what you need in order to get inflation down you need to cool down the economy. You need to push on the brakes. And the fourth, that's what we think. And that's actually going to be that he was also for leading standards overall, because if unemployment increases, that's never good news. But again, we believe that this period of pain will need to materialize in order for fat to reach its objective. Max, I'd like to get your view on China now that we have the party Congress in the rearview mirror and we know now that Washington is using the kind of bans on U.S. chips and chip expertise as a way of exporting that technology to China, which has the potential to really stifle a lot of development of advanced Chinese technology. Give me your sense of how significant this is and what the repercussions could be. What it is definitely very significant. First of all, in terms of relationships between the U.S. and China, clearly here we are escalating on the negative side. And in terms of actual profits of growth for the industry within China, that's also negative news, especially given that one of the plans and the objectives of China is to improve their technological if you want the advance. Obviously, if you don't have the correct access to semiconductors and microchips that becomes extremely hard, developing domestic alternative we all know is not that easy. And therefore, in this fast paced environment, even losing out a few months of normal growth and then development probably means light years and then other industries. We think it will have an impact. It will have an effect. The question is China will definitely try and see some domestic alternatives, but it's not so easy. So the question is really, how much of a help and support they're going to try and give to this industry in order to figure out some of our challenges. How do you view the investing environment in China at the moment? A number of stocks and other assets are very, very cheap, but there are a number of risks as well. Are you looking at the space? We're definitely looking at the space. So it is true that from an absolute and relative point of view valuations are cheap. But it's also true with especially after the recent Congress uncertainty is very high. Visibility is extremely low. Geopolitical risks are very high headlines remain high. We have seen that it's unlikely that they're going to turn particularly market friendly anytime soon. The four not having a Chinese exposure is we believe not correct, but also we have been trimming down of our exposure given the recent news and keep in mind that yes, valuations in China are cheap, but after the recent fall we've seen in other markets where you'll definitely have more visibility. You're also getting some cheaper valuations elsewhere. Therefore, we do keep looking at it. We are in the market, but we have been scaling down, also because now a number of alternatives have started to appear. So max, when you have the morning meeting later today at SGM capital and you talk about the strategy between now, let's say in the end of the year, give me 30 seconds on what that looks like. Short term, you could see a further bounce, but we think that the market is likely to go back and test June lows again. There will come a time of buying and there's going to be great buying opportunities, but it's not now yet. We need to be a little bit more patient, more payments to happen within the U.S. economy. So we're probably looking at you want you to over next year in order to really start deploying the remainder quarter is probably still the time to be cautious. All right, max pandori will leave it there. Thanks so much for joining us on Bloomberg daybreak, Asia. Max von der is CEO
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That as we look forward, he would welcome the news today that there are over 15,000 new police officers on us. And the Home Secretary will be supporting them to tackle burglaries. The party opposite the party opposite will be backing the lunatic protesting fringe that is stopping through. We can all see what's happened here. He's so weak. He's done a grubby deal. Creating national security because he was scared to lose another leadership election. Sunak also said that inflation is the number one economic danger in the UK. South Korean defense minister Ali Jong soup says that Correa needs to shift from a policy of deterring Kim Jong-un from using his growing arsenal of nuclear weapons to a more aggressive stance of telling Kim that even if he attempts to do that, it will bring an end to his regime. In San Francisco, Ahmed Baxter, this is Bloomberg, right back to New York. All right, Eddie, thank you. Let's get to our guest max panduri joins us max is the CEO of SG MC capital he joins from Singapore. It's always a pleasure max. So much of this price action seems to be driven by this idea that the fed is getting very close to some kind of an adjustment in its thinking when it comes to rate hikes. Maybe as soon as December, we become or we're faced with a less hawkish fed. Do you think that's a possibility? Well, definitely in terms of future rate hikes, we're going to see a slowdown. They're probably going to do zero 75 now and then they're going to slow down the pace of hacking. But I was also normal. They couldn't keep going at 75 a piece every time. The real question here is in terms of messaging and in terms of how long interest rates remain and elevate the levels. Just keep in mind if you do get that four and a half, 5% kind of band, that is quite restrictive as a policy. And the market now is probably a little bit over optimistic and expecting the fed to start cutting rates already as early as July, August of next year. When we think actually rates could remain higher for longer in order for inflation to really come down and put a hamper on growth. The four year future hikes will be lower. But from here to a dovish fed, I think there's still a lot of time for that. Do you sense that we are getting towards the end of the inflation flight or perhaps just the end of the beginning? Well, we've seen the peak. I think that's more or less a given. Of course, unless something big geopolitically happens. But how quickly that will come down, it's still a question mark. And the real issue here is that for inflation to really decline meaningfully closer to the fed's target, unemployment in the U.S. has to come up because that is the only way that you really are going to be hampering growth and you're going to have less demand in the system. And then of course, if that happens, that's bad news for living standards in general and for asset valuation. The four were definitely in a better position than we were a few months back. But there's still a lot of work to be done. So you just mentioned geopolitical risk. And I'm wondering whether the market is maybe a little too complacent, whether it's what's going on in Ukraine, the notion of a dirty bomb of some sort or China and incursion on Taiwan. I mean, do you think the market is too complacent in measuring geopolitical risk right now? We believe the market is too complacent. The issue with these risks is that they're extremely binary. So if something should break out if any of the risks that you have mentioned, whether it's the Taiwan, whether it's dirty bomb. Clearly you're going to have a massive repercussion of negative repercussion on market and it's going to happen extremely quickly. But if that does not happen, then you probably already see quite a few of the economic risks, not all of them, but a few of them already been discounted. Before it's all a question of the likelihood that investors put in the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Powerful Russian missile exploded near reactors at the south Ukraine nuclear power plant it happened early on Monday within 900 feet of these reactors. Jerry selection began today in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, in the trial of Tom barrack, he is defending himself against charges of acting as an unregistered agent of the United Arab Emirates and trying to influence U.S. policy during the Trump administration. Republican representative Liz Cheney has introduced a bill to change how Congress counts presidential electors. It is aimed at reducing the chances of another effort to overturn the results of a presidential election, and today more than 100 world leaders, including President Biden, attended the funeral for Queen Elizabeth II. It was the culmination of ten days of morning since the queen died on September 8th in Scotland. That's a quick look at global news headlines, Juliet. Thank you, Doug. Let's get back to, I guess, max manduri is founder and CEO of SG MC capital joining us from Singapore, just getting your thoughts there on what we've seen in China the loan prime rates remaining unchanged and yet again moves by the PBOC to defend that week yuan max. Well, definitely in terms of macroeconomic environment, China is a little bit under pressure. But expect more headlines to come out next month after the party is meeting. But you also can expect the narrative to continue being focused. They will need to provide further monetary and fiscal stimulus to the economy overall. But obviously they need to do that in a very targeted way. And in terms of the yuan, yes, they will try and make sure that it doesn't depreciate too much further from a current level. But in general, do not expect big headlines before the meeting of next month. And that's the next month, then you're likely to see further stimulus coming in. I wonder if we could draw the conclusion that, you know, they're not stimulating as much as many would expect. We haven't heard the World Bank president David malpass talk about that. But they are stepping in to keep the slide on the yuan from getting worse. Does that mean they're worried about capital flight? That's definitely something that they're thinking about clearly given everything that is happening and given the depreciation of the currency before they want to make sure that that does not materialize. But also in terms of the actual economy, they will need to continue having targeted help because again, data that is coming out is not encouraging. And they will need to fix also the narrative in order for investments and to remain in China and continue. Where is the best bet in Asia now? I mean, we're looking at sort of some of the emerging markets excluding China fare a little better given the inflationary pressures are not quite as strong as what you're seeing in developed markets. We're still relatively bearish of emerging markets in general just because of the strength in the U.S. dollar. That's never a good factor for emerging markets. We tend to prefer more developed markets, especially in Asia, we like Singapore, for example. It's actually one of the indices, which has done very well. I mean, relatively, very well, it's actually in the green year to date in Asia. And that's likely to continue because again, it provides a kind of lower beta exposure and a bit more solidity. Indonesia in the stock market, of course, in local currency, has done well, but that's likely to continue to, because with respect to its position, it's relatively better than some of the other countries, and therefore we take those two embassies could continue performing relatively bad. Give me a good contrarian call at the moment. Well, we still think that the interest rates of more to run. So it's the ten year and the two year we still think there is more to run. People are still thinking that the fed will need to pivot obviously next year. That's very unlikely to happen. Before shorting the treasury rates, depending on the tour, the ten year depending on what you're looking at. But that's definitely something that we are looking at. And obviously, if you want to go a bit higher risk, you were shorting the JGBs on the ten year. Could be an interesting trade, but that's a different kind of ball game. You say potentially rightly as many do that European markets are the ones are most at risk and we're continuing to watch the energy shortage and the Ukraine war. How does this impact green investments? Green investment the game is something which will remain there, but the problem with green investments is that people need energy now. And if you need energy now, you need oil and coal and you need those kind of resources. The four green investing will remain the problem is that it's down in the future. And people need to sort out their positions now and need to have access to energy now today. Therefore, it's likely to remain there. But again, be a little bit on the back burner because economies need energy to consume as of now before. Expect nuclear to again have a revamp. We've seen that in a number of European countries. And structural change you will need to happen. Final question, true or false. Chinese policy is not what it used to be. Now, I think it's what it used to be. Easy out, easy out max. Saying true, max when dairy found it and CEO
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"31 year high ahead of the bank of Japan meeting. Ford falls on higher than expected supply costs. And Shaun is real estate woes take a new turn as bad loan ratio search. A Russian made missile explodes near a Ukrainian power plant, Ukraine is urging western nations to supply more weapons and hurricane Fiona creates destruction in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. I'm Doug prisoner with global news. Barcelona's finances are back on track after staggering losses due to COVID. I'm Dan Schwartzman. I'll have that story more coming up in Bloomberg sports. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg daybreak Asia on Bloomberg 11 three O New York. Bloomberg 99 one Washington D.C., Bloomberg one O 6 one Boston, Bloomberg 9 60 San Francisco, Syria's XM one 19 and around the world on Bloomberg radio dot com and via the Bloomberg business app. Hi everybody, every benchmark in Asia is higher at the moment, and in fact, every sector in the Australian stock market is in the green. What's going on? Well, you have to stay with us. We'll try to explain good morning to you. I'm Brian Curtis and Hong Kong. And I'm Juliet sali in Singapore Bloomberg Debra kasia presented by interactive brokers at charges margin loan rates from 2.83 to 3.83% their clients can also earn extra income by lending their fully paid shares of stock rates of subject to change learn more at IBKR dot com slash compare will your turn this quarter out Brian to tell us why markets are. Did I oversell that? It's probably a little bit of a calm before this storm, Juliet with the fed meeting coming up. There's so many central banks meeting this week. But you know, it finished on Wall Street, pretty solidly in the last hour and it did provide a little bit of momentum to the extent that we do to a certain degree follow Wall Street. Today you've got rallies here, pretty solid ones too, the nikkei is now up 7 tenths of 1%. I highlighted the SX 200 because it's up 1%, 67 points up and every sector is higher. The strongest sector at the moment would appear to be energy up 1.8% utilities up 1.7%. Looking at the nikkei with that gain of a 197 points, we also have dollar yen here one 43 20, so pretty steady. The Bloomberg dollar spot index is flat now. It had been lower for much of the morning. We did get a pretty hot inflation read in Japan. Well, I say that. It was only a tenth of a percent above what the estimate was, but still in all, with consumer prices excluding fresh food rising 2.8% in August. It was enough to be a 31 year high. Analysts had forecast to 2.7% gain. And despite the numbers here, nobody's expecting the bank of Japan to change policy tomorrow. That's because governor haruhiko kuroda has repeatedly said that the bank will keep interest rates at these low levels until inflation becomes sustainable. And I wanted to mention again that the state backed newspaper securities daily in China says investors should be confident in the long-term prospects for growth in China and in the stock market. The CSI 300, though, is down about 28% year to date. Yield on the two year 3.94% steady the ten year three 48, WTI, now down two tenths of a percent. 85 58 a barrel. Juliet. Well, the second largest USC port getting fewer inbound container arrivals from Asia, that is a sign of weaker U.S. demand. Imports to the port of Long Beach, California have fallen for two months, and the neighboring port of Los Angeles has seen its biggest decline in inband cargo since the early days of the pandemic. Together these twin operations handle about 40% of containerized shipments from Asia, here's port of Long Beach executive director Mario kadero. As predicted, the temper of the American consumer has diminished with regard to the consumer demand a bit. But have you said all that for the prolonged beach for the first 8 months, our growth is 4.6% in terms of container movement, plus what it was last year. So we're doing well. Long Beach is also among 29 ports on the West Coast awaiting the outcome of labor talks and both sides have vowed to report a void or a repeat of the 2014 negotiations. That's when the U.S. faced 9 months of cargo disruptions. It's some rig numbers out of China, the property bad loan ratio has surged to about 30%, and according to city analysts even state back developers are now at risk of surging defaults. Bad debt rose to 29.1% of total property loans in the first half of the year. That was up from 24.3% at the end of 2021. The increase is largely due to developers controlled by the government itself. Chinese lenders exposure to real estate, Trump stat of other industry at $7.6 trillion. And the after effects of a mortgage boycott this year could leave banks with losses of some $350 billion. Coming up, we're going to talk to max mondaire founder and CEO of SG MC capital, but for now it is 5 minutes past the hour and time for global news
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stanley, CIO, Lisa shallots, warning that analysts are not reducing corporate earnings forecasts in line with economic projections. Case in point, Nike shares tumbled after the New York bell, the sportswear giant offered downbeat guidance, sales and greater in the Greater China region are down 20% missing analyst estimates. Let's bring in max bondues CEO and founder. MC capital. Max, what do you make of the Nike numbers and kind of what conclusions can you draw that might kind of set the stage for some of the other earnings announcements that are going to come in the next few days? Well, the key here is really the guidance because in terms of numbers of the passport is actually not bad. But what investors are worried about is the future is the guidance. And guidance here has been clearly bleak, which has led to the correction and post market that we are experiencing now. And the fear is that you might get quite a bit of that in the upcoming earnings season. So we are basically entering the slowdown in terms of growth and in terms of companies numbers as well. And part of it is definitely still not reflected in terms of the earnings expectation. So there needs to be a further correction in terms of that with potential negative outcome with respect to the share prices before the market can really rebound on a sustainable level. Max, good morning to you. This goes to the heart of what Michael Barry has been saying, which is this slowdown at the retail end, Walmart, target, Nike, I know Nike is about China. But he talks about a bulwark effect. In other words, when you got stuff backing up at the retail level, it causes an outside impact on the wholesale level and a deflationary impulse and that he says could cause a reversal by the fed. Do you think the fed in any way are prepared to reverse? So we under assuming the slowdown, potential slowdown in inflation. The fed currently can not be seen as changing its mind once again. It's already lost quite a bit of image over the past year. The point does not, it can not allow itself to change its mind again. So the messaging is going to continue with respect to their completely focused on bringing down inflation and consequently continue hiking rates. But the key here is with respect to additional additional hawkishness, because if what they've been saying so far, that's as far as it's going to go. So that's no additional hawkishness can be seen as a little bit of dovishness. And there are four from an inflation point of view, everything that you have just pointed out at the same time, some of the commodities declining. That's likely as in line with the base case scenario that we are going to be seeing peak inflation is not going to be as much a requirement for the fed to hike as aggressively. So all of that could potentially in a best case scenario support the market point forward. Max, let's talk about the investment strategy here. Does that mean you're holding on to a little bit more cash than usual? And might actually deploy it quite soon if there is another meaningful correction in equity valuations later in July. Correct. So we're holding on to what we define as being the core of the portfolio, because that's less trading oriented. That's more on long-term perspective in terms of secular growth of the names that we like. But definitely we are more cautious than what we've been over the past few years holding on to again, 19 and 25 to 40% in cash, depending on the profiles. And we're looking to deploy that a bit more tactically. So we've deployed that about two or three weeks ago. We're now taking out some of the investments. And upon a negative moves from some of the names that we like on earnings, which could happen, then we're going to be very happy to buy that because obviously we think we're closer to the bottom than we were a few months back. We're probably not at the bottom yet, but it's getting more interesting to start deploying liquidity. Well, it certainly feels less volatile perhaps than in 2008 when it was just a straight vintage line on the way down. This is a slow continental drift of pain. To the commodity space, you look non energy, non energy commodities, and we were looking at this yesterday, copper down 16%, 10.21% last week, the westerns in the 1980s. You think that there is more pain to come on the commodity side, yeah? Absolutely, because the move we have seen over the last few months in terms of the move up has been incredibly brutal. So it's actually been extremely positive for commodities, but that has to undo itself. So it's gone ahead of itself. And a lot of that will also do to some speculative positions and not so much as the geopolitical tensions and situations only. And we're seeing that unravel and the further unraveling is yet to happen. And again, that is going to have the consequences with respect to inflation, which could potentially bring it down. And the more important part here in addition to copper revenue and everything you've mentioned is to keep a lookout on the food commodities because that's the one that can really spell travel from a social point of view if they remain elevated. And that's the one that's likely to be more sticky. Okay, but certainly if China reopens and normalizes, again, additional pressure will come to bear across that commodity complex. Max, thank you very much for being with us this morning. Pack up your cash and be safe. Max bondues CEO and finder of SG MC capital. Plenty more ahead on today's edition of
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts see more than 120 countries. This is Bloomberg, yousef. Thank you very much, George. I always pretend to start off a plane like they do and Top Gun every time I go to war. Snapshot of what else is to come on the show. We get an assessment of the economic picture in the Middle East that's going to be with Abu Dhabi commercial banks, money come out. But up next, market sentiment, dampened again by growth and inflation concerns, we take the temperature with SG MC capital's max Bond duri that's next. This is Bloomberg. When will you be able to go to a meeting where nobody smells like hand sanitizer? Who knows? But we can give you the latest business and financial news. Fragrance free. Plus, tease out some of what you just said. Are there tools in the toolbox for the fed? Does that point to the need for continued monetary support? Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. You do realize the mark that this is having on a younger generation. Bloomberg, the world is listening. Start your market day with Bloomberg surveillance. The bond market, it's a really interesting soup Tom keem, Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich. Isn't your base case the worst case scenario for us? Who says finance can't be fun? Who's in the zoo, guys? Which one of us? Bloomberg's surveillance must listen must watch. I think they made a great decision, separated us both. We didn't want to use it 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television. When you reorganize and declutter, we're probably the first thing you decide to keep. Is there any serious contemplation of sanctions against China detailed financial and business reporting? Tell us more about your customers and how they're doing now. Expert analysis. You're basically just changing a $5 bill into 5 ones. Definitely essential. Looking at high yield, where does that take you these days? Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. Bloomberg, the world is listening. The composer Joseph Haydn famously said, I listened more than I studied. It sounds like a law school hypothetical. Here in Bloomberg, it's the same thing. Do you maintain that low rate regime? Can you see our two years? How do you build a strategy with that eventuality in mind? Experts, information, news. The push sets up a potential fight. What do we know about how it will go public? Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. Bloomberg, the world is listening. Economists have begun to cut their top down economic forecasts for GDP. And yet, you know, fundamental company analysts are sitting there like deer in headlights, not knowing what to do with numbers. Morgan Stanley, CIO, Lisa shallots, warning that analysts are not reducing corporate earnings forecasts in line with economic projections. Case in point, Nike shares tumbled after the New York
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To make this the enterprise center of Europe That is our vision Breaking high wage high skilled jobs for this country And that's the jobs I'm going to get on with my and I hope he gets on with his Johnson has said he has no intention of stepping back or stepping down Addressing the EU parliament council president Charles Michel says Russia is using food now as a weapon There are over 20 million tons of grain wheat and corn stuck in Ukraine this is disrupting double food security driving up prices and causing double famine Michelle says oil as well but says there is a new agreement But earlier today Arnold panaro retired marine major on Bloomberg radio and television said the U.S. effort with the EU has just not been very successful If I look at the situation overall and balance out the pluses and minuses I would say the outcome is still uncertain and to be determined So the west needs to quit patting ourselves on the back and dig in with both feet Yeah Panera says oil and grain now In San Francisco I'm Ed Baxter this is Bloomberg truly yet Thank you Ed Let's get to our guest now massimiliano bonjour CEO and founder at SG MC capital joining us from Singapore Max a day after the World Bank we've got the OACD also cutting their global growth forecast They now see 3% for this year 2.8% in 2023 How worried are you about slowing growth and potential recessionary fears Well this reduction in estimate is not a surprise So we have seen through the number of microeconomic data that have come throughout the globe The growth is slowing down I will continue slowing down Now the question is whether we do get into a recession especially in the U.S. As of now that is not our base case scenario I considerably we're not overly worried Clearly we're in a risky environment given all the geopolitical countries that are there and given that the growth is falling down But as of now we don't see a recession happening but as and when this whole geopolitical tensions keep dragging on and supply chains are not sorted clearly the likelihood of a negative surprise there increase We have one of our reporters saying that what we saw with the treasury auction Wednesday was an indication of some trader psychology going into a series of major events which of course starts with the main event the ECB where do we see the U.S. ten year yield go though Will it make a new high of the peak of 3.2% for the year Well it might go and test that but we think a lot of the interest rate moves so far as happened We have seen a big move And 3% roughly is where the neutral rate is going to be for the economy whether or not it's exactly two 75 or three 25 that I think is not so much relevant It's more relevant whether we are going to be needing to see an interest rate environment of 6% to fight an inflation which remains stubbornly high and our answer is no there So we see a 3% as potentially the neutral rate And for the ten year move from here is likely to remain mute And that's why actually taking some exposure to the ten year rates or anyways fixed incomes given that interest remove has already happened starts becoming interesting Of course short term you can see a few moves and it will remain volatile given environment but we think a lot of the move has already happened All right so start allocating back to fixed income which is one of your top calls What about when you are looking at equity markets and specifically in Europe I mentioned the ACB we're expecting to hear from Christine lagann and that's going to be very much watched for indications of a July hike of as much as 50 basis points that ECB potentially joining that jumbo rate height club Well ECB will have to start normalizing the situation as well They do not have a choice The inflation is high also in Europe Of course it's trickier for the ECB because growth in Europe is not as strong as in the U.S. In terms of how you position from an equity perspective for Europe I mean Europe so far has not fallen as much as the U.S. apart because again ECB has not been hiking as much as the fed in part because frankly European equities are under own with respect to American equity So when people have to sell they sell what they have and they have a lot more American activities But now what is important is the going forward and going forward we remain a little bit skeptical of European assets because you are going to see again this tightening mode happening in Europe So expect to see something similar to what has happened in the U.S. maybe not of the same magnitude but asset valuations will be put under stress And at the same time the geopolitical tensions will actually grain is unfortunately unlikely to go away any time soon and given the energy shock and an overall commodity shot of the Europe is facing it has a lot of headwinds So we remain very cautious on European valuations I want to come back to that energy shock in the next part but just in terms of Central Bank action and we have seen some aggressive moves this week alone Do you think that this is something of the central bankers I guess trying to make up for lost time or how did you see the move particularly when you look at the RBA which really surprised the market Well making out for a lot of time is probably applies a lot more to the U.S. compared to the rest of the world The fed last year stuck to its view of this and transitory inflation which.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"At Bloomberg quick tape This is a Bloomberg business flash And we update markets every 15 minutes looking at Asian equity futures they are down across the board dancing index futures down about 9 tenths of 1% Australian futures off 7 tenths of a percent Nikkei futures suggest maybe when we get trading next we'll move down maybe 300 points or so and S&P E minis are off around two thirds of 1% Stocks are investors are concerned Worried about what the Chinese trade data might show about how bad the economy is in China And if we go back to the jobs report the Labor Department reported to gain a 428,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6% just a little above the level before the pandemic So one takeaway could be that the U.S. economic rebound held strong in April Does that show that neither inflation or higher rates is really doing much damage to the U.S. economy Should that have a reassuring effect on policymakers or none at all because they're worried about the future Maybe they know the future really well the fed didn't know the future all that well last year when it thought that inflation would stay at its current level and I'm sure that you investors you know you know the future right It's a puzzling sort of question anyway We are looking at losses on the boards this morning right now the dollar is stronger by two tenths of 1% and oil prices are lower down 6 tenths of a percent And that is a check of markets Head back to a headline news in San Francisco at Hart Bryan thank you leaders of the group of 7 have committed to banning a Russian oil imports EU push is being blocked by Hungary surprise this is the Ukraine from the west Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. First Lady Jill Biden Bono and edge from U2 performing an impromptu concert in akiv subway station The first phase of the Marriott pool of evacuation is complete women and children elderly out U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi says the $33 billion Ukraine aid package has to be passed Lockheed Martin is working to almost double its production capacity for javelin missiles to 4000 a year South Korea reporting out that North Korea appeared to fire a submarine launch ballistic missile over the weekend No surprise Hong Kong elections have confirmed that chief back China backed John Lee will be the next chief executive Hong Kong reporting out no deaths for the first time by the way since February and the latest report will get another today In San Francisco I'm at Baxter this is Bloomberg All right rich All right well let's get back to our guest for the half hour We are still with max banduri CEO in front of SG MC capital which is a family office or invited a family offices Max Doug mentioned that we're going to talk about China Just how bad is the situation in China And does it represent a long-term investment opportunity or is it something that you just avoid right now Because all bets are off Well the situation is definitely dire Closing down one of your biggest cities and potentially do clearly is going to have an impact on growth and morale obviously They're going to be trying and they already mentioned that to try and help with some fiscal and monetary help But stimulus whether that will work remains to be seen because of course again that there's a lot that has to be countered In terms of valuations we're very clearly absolute and relative valuations are extremely attractive In the short term though it's unlikely that we're going to get a big rally The four China remains very attractive having an allocation to China makes sense but this will be for the longer term You really have to have a long term So max I'm wondering if you look at Ozzy on instead many of the economies in Southeast Asia are being supported by a recovery in the tourism industry And I'm wondering whether or not that combined with the fact that you have a number of commodity exporters in the region whether you go long ASEAN Well we are increasing our exposure to axon and we're doing that especially to those countries which are seen a little bit in terms of lower beta and higher solidity and stability So Singapore for example is one of the main ones We are playing also some of the tourist if you want Beams So with some of the countries whether that could be talent or potentially even get them and all of those But definitely ASEAN does look as a bit of a niche play in this moment You know an adviser to a various multi-family office is tell me something What is the most common question you are asked And what does it mean in terms of strategy Well the main question as of now is how low can this go This is the main the main thing that we're speaking with Yeah we keep it straight forward And the answer that we give is that unfortunately in the short term rationality and valuation has gone a little bit out of the window And therefore you need to brace for a potential continuation of this call The 13,000 level on the NASDAQ country which seemed like it could have kept actually broke last week and it broke quite negative fashion on Friday evening The from here onwards we expect that markets could continue falling 5 to 10% over the short term So you need to be hatched for that But you also have to be ready to capture potential opportunities And of course with volatility this high there's quite a few interesting strategies that you can put in place to do exactly that cover you for First let down on a basically entering a bit lower So if we are a week again in the end Vis-à-vis the dollar I think it will be the 9th straight weekly decline for the Japanese currency Do you want to be exposed with that type of weakness to the Japanese equity market right now since it favors exporters so richly Again it makes total absolute rational sense what you're saying over the short term Again it's all about sentiment and flows this market So do we want to go along nikkei now on a tactical point of view Probably not But of course a weaker yen will help Japanese equities But as of now just given the sentiment it's probably better to look at some lower beta countries in place Like the so obviously Switzerland could be one Singapore as I already mentioned could be one in Asia And then of course even within the U.S. and Europe there are themes and sectors which tend to be lower beta You can look at Staples You can look at pharma You can look at some of the high dividend yields But again it is environment asset allocation should favor a bit more of liquidity and cash and definitely have hedges in place whether we are loan ports or long put spreads or actually short some of the future And ten seconds does the adult say stronger.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Treasury secretary Larry summers eloquent as ever reacting to the jobs report And the fence tank in path will investors are waiting for the FOMC minutes a little bit later this week to gauge the Central Bank's appetite for that 50 basis point hike risk in the market That's as the U curve flashes more warning signs of economic growth is set to slow max Bond jury is SG MC capital founder and CEO max the debate is this jumbo red hikes to come 50 basis points get your opinion on that in a moment but it's the speed of this inversion that use of an I've been looking at twos tens inverts only 16 days This is the fastest inversion ever since they started a hiking cycle Her prescient is that how much of a warning sign is that for you and should we pay attention to this current inversion Well definitely shows how global markets are worried about the current situation You are seeing basically the fed has been behind the curve up until last year and now they're trying to catch up and they're going to have to do quite a lot of hikes over the coming months and quarters And that's going to be happening But basically we're also an environment where the geopolitical issues and growth is now becoming a bit of a question And that's why you're seeing such a dramatic reversion in the interest rate curve And that's likely to continue flashing red signals there and markets and participants should definitely take care of that because this normally has always been a negative signal for equity markets They're starting a discussion of stagflation spheres which are coming up and all of that is going to be impacting risk sentiment and overall definitely valuations One of the most read stories on the terminal this morning is about what the neutral rate for some of the fed route funds is And the market's life team is asking that question this morning What's the neutral level for federal funds That is basically neither accommodative nor to restrictive as we try and understand what the destination of this rate hiking path will be Well that is a great question that we've obviously been trying to guard and definitely the microeconomic environment that has been changing a lot And it's structuring has been changing But probably we're going to be seeing the rate going to anything around two and a half to 3% And that's probably likely to be relatively in the neutral stance Well this takes us back then to the debate on real rates And we've seen quite an acceleration on real rates We've moved from negative 1.1 to just under we've moved about 60 basis points in real rates What is the risk that real rates turn positive Because you look at the JPMorgan note that you read out this morning Another 55 basis points to go on the short end of the curve So will equities remain the least worst option in a negative real rate world But what is the risk Here's the risk of rear rates turning positive Well we're definitely moving towards that and just waiting as we mentioned before the speed is definitely extremely rapid there So the risk is there And if we do get into positive rear rates then obviously valuations will have to take that into consideration We're going to have to be seeing a bit of an impact there But like you said our equity is going to be the most shielded We're definitely the companies where you're continuing to see growth real growth continued growth and good margins There should be definitely more shielded but if you get a risk off sentiment with indices overall correcting obviously the market is going to be impacted overall I was looking through your research and what stood out to me is that you recommended selling into the strength of this rally In terms of commodities be careful because they're quite high at current levels What does one do if all asset classes don't look appealing now I'm sitting on a bunch of cash where does that go Well definitely cache is not the answer because if with inflation where it is your bound to basically lose money in real terms We have been selling into the rallies obviously if you're sending it to rally you probably bought lower So that's really a good starting point to be in Commodities will remain supported but we don't like to be overly exposed to that just because of the current valuations and where they are So basically what investors need to do is look at where the secular growth is where the themes that are really going to be contributing to tomorrow's growth and continue growing basically are And that's where investors should put their money in Obviously the short term is going to be bumpy and we've been continuing saying that But sitting on cash is not an answer So where are those growth areas I suppose you're reading up on Kathy wood strange enough Kathy doesn't think that raising rates is a good idea Strange that for tech Big surprise Big huge shock and red headline So where is the next evolution of growth then Well done Let's look at semiconductors They will continue being there Let's look at cybersecurity Let's look at everything which is the future of healthcare Let's look at renewables energy with everything happening in the energy space That is going to remain supported So all of that is going to be looking very good here for the next few years Max thank you for stopping by and our studio here in Dubai a bunch of appreciated that's Maxwell Dorothy sd MC capital founder and CEO So much more heads This is Bloomberg The markets in focus every business day The.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg Yusef Thanks Jules Let's get you a bit of a snapshot of what else is to come on the show We discussed the retreat of oil prices and other things impacting regional markets It's going to be with the Emirates NBD senior director of market economics Edward bell The next we're going to cover the broader asset classes with SG MC capital farmer and CEO max bondu He joins Yusuf and I had to talk fed curving version and the fed minutes this week This is Bloomberg The only way to start the morning is with optimism Dodge recovery was sluggish A lot of people agree on that Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich Finally we got some abramowitz gloom to get in there The ultimate south signal might be when laser capitulates Bloomberg surveillance Must watch Lisa your data point go Tom you're great Never change We see mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television There are a lot of ways to look at the world right now Interesting that you've got an overweight on Hong Kong And the more of them you can access the better What has to be his strategy Perspective Who's doing school best Clarity How do we get it so that the benefits get to everybody Expertise He seems to have exactly the right combination It's character plus policy Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening Economics All this doom and gloom is out there climbing Do you see this as a technical correction investment What are you looking at Give you some sort of compass through this period The Bloomberg surveillance podcast lots and lots of talk about what the fed should and shouldn't do Lisa Abraham always and.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"sg mc capital" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The longer front but really this is the last time Or at maximum Dory founder and CEO of SG MC capital Thanks so much for joining us today on Bloomberg daybreak Asia As we go to the break market around the region in a moment we'll tell you all about TSMC's great quarter With the Bloomberg small business report I'm John Tucker Absent a Supreme Court directive to the contrary the federal occupational safety and health administration could begin citing employers for violating the agency's COVID-19 shot or test rule The Supreme Court heard arguments from attorneys representing numerous states and businesses asking the high court to haul to enforcement while the mandate is contested in a lower court But so far the high court hasn't stopped it Osha says the rule is currently in effect The standard requires most U.S. employers with 100 or more workers still within the definition of a small business to either require all of them to be fully vaccinated or order unvaccinated workers to pass a COVID-19 test at least weekly while the efforts could be halted at a moment's notice by the Supreme Court or not Karen hardy executive director of the NFIB small business legal center in Washington says this kind of limbo isn't good for any business and that's the Bloomberg small business report I was in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean when it happened There was a sudden jolt and our submarine crashed on the sea floor We were in total darkness That's doctor figueroa.