40 Burst results for "Senior Economist"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"senior economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Aimed at ensuring the US government can keep paying its bills on time. Among other things the deal suspends the debt limit until January 2025 after the presidential election and rescinds billions of dollars in IRS and unused COVID -19 funding. Biden says he will sign measure the once it reaches his desk. The Nuggets won game one of the NBA finals over the Heat 104 93. In baseball the Mets and Red Sox won. Global News 24 hours a day powered by more than 2 ,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg. Amy. Alright, thank you Michael. It's 542 on Wall Street. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Amy Morris alongside Karen Moscow. Let's take a look at some of the other stories making news this morning. Another top executive is leaving Twitter. Ella Irwin is the executive in charge of content moderation and policy and has resigned as head of trust and safety. Irwin helped oversee Twitter's policies on harassment, hate speech and violent content rules which were relaxed under Elon Musk. Current and former employees have said Irwin was one of Musk's most trusted executives. Well Amy, Bloomberg News has learned Meta Irms is asking employees assigned to an office to come in three times a week beginning in September. The move comes after the Facebook owner cut its workforce over the past few months laying off 10 ,000 employees. a That's process that started in March and dragged on productivity. And we're learning that Apple or fronts the iPhone maker is working on plans to increase and revitalize its retail chain. That story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellet. Apple is aiming to push deeper into China and other parts of Asia while hauling established locations in the US and Europe. Apple aims to open or redo 53 stores by 2027. Sources tell Bloomberg the iPhone maker is discussing opening 15 new stores across the Asia Pacific region, five locations in Europe and East, the Middle and four additional outlets in the United States and Canada. In New York, Charlie Pellet, Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Charlie, thank you. Well, we turn to the economy now and comments from the Fed, which have come hot in and heavy this week. Just yesterday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reiterated his call for the central bank to skip raising rates at its next meeting. He told a virtual gathering of economists that the Fed should take a longer term view. We should be reacting meeting by meeting, measurement by measurement. That's not good policy either. And so I think we need to look through a lot of that. And again, there are these other forces that are happening with the revision on the wages and so forth. But get me to think that it's time to just at least hit the stop button for one meeting and see how it goes. And the Fed's next policy decision comes in 12 days. And Patrick Harker and the Fed getting a key economic report this morning before they make a decision on rates. Less than three hours from now, we'll get the jobs report for the month of May. Joining us now is Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo. Sarah, always a pleasure. Thanks for joining us. What are you expecting from today's jobs report? Good morning. So we are expecting to see further moderation in the trend rate of hiring but still pretty strong overall. So we're looking for an increase in payrolls of $210 ,000. And I think for the unemployment rate to show that we're still in a very tight jobs market. So I think we could see that tick up to 3 .5%, but that's still at the lowest levels or right around there that we've seen in 50 plus years. Is there a particular number that you are looking for that could move the Fed? Certainly it's any one single number. I think it would take a confluence of the numbers and would probably also need to be helped along by the inflation data that we'll get right before the Fed meeting as well. But I think ultimately you'll have to see probably the trend in hiring show signs of either not just slowing, but I think perhaps even re -accelerating. So I think you would need a pretty substantial be on consensus from that matter I think to have the Fed move just given the recent Fed speak that we've heard. Yeah, I was wondering if a slower rate in hiring, maybe we would see growth, but a slower rate of that, if that would be enough to allow the Federal Reserve to kind of skip an interest rate hike this month. Well, I think that's definitely what they're leaning towards and I think if you did see anything around consensus, I think that would support that notion of a skip. I think the bigger question right now is what would it take for them to not skip. So so you you have markets currently still pricing in roughly a 30 % chance that maybe they still do something and think I part of that still potential rests on what we get out of today's jobs report and again the inflation report that we'll get out right before the meeting starts. Are there any sectors you that are watching that may be showing weakness or maybe a split within the economy? Well certainly keeping an eye on what's happening in the goods space or the goods adjacent space. So looking very closely at what we're seeing in terms of manufacturing employment which has slowed pretty noticeably here. You know ISM yesterday still pointed to it being positive but we've definitely seen a downshift over the past year or so in terms of that rate of growth. Also keeping a close eye on what's happening in transportation and warehousing. So this is an industry where employment is up 17 % from where it was before COVID but as we see that that pivot towards services in terms of consumer spending continue as we've heard talk of quote freight recession. I think it wouldn't be surprising to see some weakness there but I think that's going to be offset by areas where there's still scope for catch -up from the pandemic. So leisure and hospitality for example you still have payroll growth down about two and a half percent was back in February 2020. So we're still catching up from the pandemic. Sarah what makes it so tricky to pinpoint when the feds tightening is bound to take effect and start a slowdown of the economy? Why is this so tricky? Well I think one it has to do with just the overall magnitude of the rate hikes that they've done in what's been pretty short order. There's also a lot of unique aspects of this current cycle. So we've never had households come out of a recession in such strong financial shape as we did coming out of the COVID recession with those excess savings with perhaps a lot of latent labor supply well. as And even on the business side you know if you look at what was happening with manufacturers backlogs the given all supply chain issues. So even as we've seen new orders according to the ISM contracting for I think it's eight or nine months now those backlogs have been helping prop up employment. So it's been difficult to pinpoint exactly what those lags are just given how disruptive the pandemic was on everything from labor supply to supply chains and also just the monetary and fiscal policy response that put consumers in a very different position than we typically see coming out of these periods. And Sarah we have about a minute left and we've been talking about the jobs report in a preview of that. But the other big story coming out of Washington the is debt ceiling deal wondering if that has clearly taken some of the pressure off. Well I think it certainly helps provide some certainty and removes a potential significant tail risk to the outlook. So I think that's helpful in terms of whether it's forecasting or policy making. But at the same time it did leave us with what looks to be some at least modest fiscal tightening. And so I think while it's not going to be I think a game changer in terms of the economic outlook about fiscal tightening, I think it does signal that we are at the end of an era of what's been very accommodative fiscal policy and so we're seeing it's not just monetary policy getting tighter right now, it's also the fiscal side as well. And so what are you watching for there? In terms of the fiscal side, I mean I think that, you know, so now we have potentially these spending caps for the budgets ahead. We still need to get those don't know if that was funds appropriated, but it compounds other issues like, for example, the end of the student loan moratorium. Sarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo. Thank you for taking the time with us this morning. Futures are higher. Dow futures up 148 points. S &P futures
WTOP 24 Hour News
Fresh update on "senior economist" discussed on WTOP 24 Hour News
"The monday news at 10 and 40 past the hour brought to you by pen fed great rates for everyone here's joan donaker this is a bloomberg money minute we're heading toward a child care cliff at the end of this month 24 24 billion dollars in pandemic era government aid to child care providers is set to end the century foundation calculates more than 70 000 child care programs could be in danger of closing with more three than million children losing their spots and while wells fargo senior economist sarah house says those are not hard and fast numbers it's hard to say if we would actually lose daycare providers or just if capacity would be constrained if they're going to have more difficulty hiring what the quality of care might be she does say the end of that aid could put a dent in the size of the labor force the research has shown time and again the access to affordable quality consistent child care it boosts women's participation and house says women with with young children have helped drive gains in prime age workers anything that's going to dent that that labor supply i think could could challenge this narrative of perhaps a soft landing from the bloomberg newsroom i'm joan on at wtop 7 42 his best -selling memoir describes the dangerous journey of a nine -year -old salvadoran boy migrating to the united states alone to reunite parents with his at his recent book signing in arlington it was standing room only thank you thank you bands at the arlington central library told how the air samara his memoir is a powerful story my book the book is about love a kid who loves his parents and as a kid who really assists them samara told wtop his story is also full of hope among those who turned out to meet the poet author and lata cisneros of arlington says those truly interested in the issue of immigration should read samara's compelling memoir solito if you're curious to learn about that narrative from a first person's perspective then mid -october all this month wtop continues to highlight the people traditions and customs of the community in the dmv the united auto workers union continues its strike against the big three automakers saying executives aren't equitably sharing record profits while the union says and talks with ford representatives say that is not the case with gm and stellantis on friday the union expanded the labor action against those two specifically at thirty eight locations across twenty states now the full strike includes forty one facilities and about nineteen thousand employees across the nation in a video message u a w president sean fein said we invite and encourage who supports our cause to join us on the picket line from our friends and families all the way up to the president of the united states meanwhile president biden says he'll walk the picket line on tuesday with u a w members in michigan former president jimmy carter and his wife rosalyn have made a surprise appearance at the plains peanut festival in georgia saturday seven months after he entered hospice care the carters were caught on camera by locals traveling in a black suv they had their windows down so onlookers could the spot pair jimmy carter was born in plains georgia and continued to teach sunday school classes in his hometown until recently he will turn ninety nine on october first he's already the longest living president in u .s. history coming up on w t o p how to get that credit card debt under control before student loan payments kick in again it's seven forty four this is greg o 'connell with new tannix seven hundred fifty million new software applications are expected by twenty twenty six making application performance one of it's biggest jobs running applications applications from the data center public cloud in the edge doesn't have to be complex new tannix customers use hybrid our multi cloud platform as a consistent operating model to run application workloads seamlessly across your infrastructure environments they don't have to refactor applications to run traditional and cloud native apps from anywhere that if that sounds good to you we'd love to show you how the new tannix hybrid multi cloud platform is helping organizations like yours new tannix delivers the industry's leading hybrid multi cloud platform that enables organizations to run their apps from anywhere don't take our word for it you can see how it works for yourself by taking no a -obligation test drive at newtannix .com slash WTOP that's newtannix .com slash WTOP three little words no parent wants to hear my tummy hurts and it always seems to happen at the worst times like in the middle of the morning rush when you still have homework to check and lunches to pack and of course you're already late for work luckily there's pepto kids new pepto kids gummies helps relieve occasional stomach upsets turning those three words into these three words I feel better bad time for stomach upsets good time for
Bloomberg Radio New York
"senior economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On fed decision day, the final policy move of 2022. Comes our way 2 p.m. Wall Street time ahead of it. We are very pleased to be joined by Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO, capital markets. Jen, are we going to get anything other than 50 basis points? It seems like that's pretty well baked into this market. Oh, good morning. You know what? We have been we're sticking with our 50 basis point move and our call and certainly yesterday's CPI report, which, wow, I also want to think it was, wow, after that's seen a headline .1% increase, a much better than expected. I will certainly help solidify what he hinted at a couple of weeks ago. So I think we should all sort of get ready to hear an updated version of that phrase. It's time to start moderating the pace of rehab. So that's probably what he's going to say again. This afternoon, but I would be very cautious to expect anything to dovish, it would be very much abrupt shift if he changes his views on this one number. So you're not expecting that the fed chairman is going to say, wow, the way you did. To that CPI report, is that what I'm hearing from you? I think he will be optimistic. They already said that about the October on CPI and hearing two having two modest increases in a row is encouraging. But key phrase was that he needed substantially more evidence. I remember he said that on November 3rd was that he would take substantially more evidence to give them comfort that inflation is actually declining. Now whether two months is enough, I highly, highly doubt it. But certainly this is a step in the right direction. Are you expecting any major changes then to the language in the FOMC statement? Any idea that we could see a little bit more explicit thought from the fed on whether they're going to take their foot off the gas even further from policy tightening. I think they're going to continue to be cautious because it's just, again, I still think it's too early to call the all clear on inflation. But at least he will probably emphasize the point that Rachel still needs to be higher. Higher than they had expected some time ago. So even though they are going to be moderating the pace of rate hikes, instead of 75, we're finally getting 50. And we have to remember 50 is still quite a bit as well. But at least the pace is starting to modest to moderately slow, but probably stay higher for longer. And then they would need a lot more evidence before they're comfortable and to start to at least stop raising rates and then at some point cutting rates, but I don't think that's going to be part of the language or part of the vocabulary just yet. What do you think we'll get from the fed's economic projections? And how much stock do you put in those projections given how difficult it really has been to forecast this economy this year? Oh, I take it with a huge fistful of salt. And it's not a criticism. It's just as you just pointed out. I mean, it's so difficult to make accurate calls these days and I don't think anyone was calling for such a modest CPI number, for example. But I think there are going to probably Lower. the I want to be starting with the lower the GP forecast a little bit as well. But certainly, I will say this, that soft landing sort of shallow downturn call is looking better and better and we might see some of that playing out in the forecast this afternoon. Of course, one big vexing issue for this fed has been the ongoing tightness in the labor market and the concern that wage pressures will continue to feed into inflation. What do you think the fed's going to say about where unemployment needs to go to really tackle price pressures? So that is one area which he hasn't really changed his tune too much. He continues to call the labor market very, very tight end of this. We're still seeing very strong, very solid job increases on a month to month basis. But the fact that job vacancies have been taking lower is good news for them. But this is going back to the whole. I've been saying that good is bad and bad is good. So they will continue to point to the labor market and he's actually been sort of tweaking corrected. He tweeted a little bit by saying that it needs to come down a lot more and before they can start breathing a little bit easier as well. And so far, we're not seeing that and it's going to be some time I think before we see some of the wage pressures ease a little bit. Now the NFIB survey, I think earlier this week, did show that there was a smaller share of firms planning to raise worker comp in the next few months. So that's a step also in the rate inflationary direction. Our last 30 seconds here will put you on the spot a little bit. When do you see inflation getting back to target? Oh, it's going to take a few years. I think we still have access to demand, I guess, and of course, this whole labor market tightness is not going to play out, there's not helping the inflation story handled or fist, I guess, but we're going to see we're starting to see obviously inflation coming down. But getting back toward the 2% ish range is probably something in the late 2023 early 2024 story. Thanks, as always, Jen, great getting your thoughts. Jennifer Lee, senior economist, BMO capital markets ahead of the final fed decision of the year 2 p.m. Wall Street time will find out where the fed puts rates and of course the news conference from chairman Powell coming up at two 30. We will have it all covered for you on a special edition of Bloomberg surveillance begins at one 30 p.m.
Bloomberg Businessweek
Fresh update on "senior economist" discussed on Bloomberg Businessweek
"Wells fargo senior economist sarah houses those are not hard and fast numbers it's hard to say if we would actually lose daycare capacity would be constrained if they're going to have more difficulty hiring with the quality of care there might be she does say the end of that aid could put a dent in the size of the labor force the research has shown time and again the access to affordable quality consistent child care it boosts women's participation and house says women with young children have helped drive gains in prime age workers anything that's to going dent that that labor supply i think could challenge this narrative of perhaps soft landing and i'm denise pellegrini in the bloomberg newsroom we are monitoring the situation with hollywood screenwriters and their strike in the studios they're negotiating again today and a source telling us as we've been reporting the two sides have agreed to staff a certain number of writers on their tv shows that figure could increase according to the source with the number of episodes in the season and also another point of agreement the two sides according to sources have now created a structure for writers to get bonuses for popular shows on streaming services but there is still a big sticking point that is the use of AI in screenplay writing the studios we're hearing did make a counter offer on the use of artificial intelligence yesterday that was the main topic as a matter of fact of those talks they had yesterday and that strike has paralyzed the entertainment industry for months now we're also keeping a close eye on prospects for avoiding a government shutdown that we've been talking about at the end of the month and representative Garrett graves Republican from Louisiana and a key ally of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will he is helping push for that continuing resolution keeping the government open lawmakers work on passing the spending plans they can anyone who says that we're going to finish all twelve appropriations bills between now and next Saturday is absolutely hallucinating as and we've been reporting a few Republicans are holding out refusing to pass that continuing resolution investors also eyeing quarterly results coming this week from Nike, Costco, Carnival and Cintas we'll also be getting reports on consumer finance, durable goods and also a PCE deflator that's closely watched by the Fed and the challenger emerging is to run against Bob Menendez as we've been reporting if the senator doesn't resign has more on that Denise, New Jersey Democratic Representative Andy Kim says on X formerly known as Twitter that he will challenge a battle Senator Bob Menendez in the 2024 election Kim has been in Congress since 2019 Menendez the senior senator from Jersey has been federally indicted on bribery charges along with his wife allegations say that Menendez accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash along with gold bars a Mercedes and mortgage payments in exchange for his influence Kim says that the state deserves better and that the Senate cannot be compromised nor can their integrity be compromised Kim was the first member of the New Jersey congressional delegation to call for Menendez's resignation and serves on both the House Armed Services and House Foreign Affairs committees Dan Schwartzman for radio alright thank you Dan and global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over a hundred and twenty countries in the newsroom I'm Denise Pellegrini this is Bloomberg. the Bloomberg talks today's top interviews from around Bloomberg News an extended conversation with former Vice President Mike Pence. Bill Gross, the co -founder of PIMCO joining us right now from California. Wide -ranging communications with Fortune 500 CEOs, big -name investors and business leaders around the world. Thank you much for joining us on Bloomberg talks. Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you podcast. Bloomberg, context changes everything. Melissa, When you get your news from Bloomberg, you don't just get the story, you get the story behind the story. How your EV's battery may not be as green as it seems. Why a decrease in global birth rates could send countries scrambling to increase immigration. You get context. Context changes how you see things, how you change things, because context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg get context. Zoe Hoecker is a welder who practices his craft in the metaverse with Forge FX's
Bloomberg Radio New York
"senior economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of the January 6th riot at the U.S. capitol President Biden will give a speech that will warn of the dangers of misinformation and subverting democracy The president this morning will also call on lawmakers to pass voting rights legislation Authorities in Kazakhstan say dozens of protesters have been killed in attacks on government buildings and at least well police officers have died Australian open champion Novak Djokovic has been denied entry into Australia Federal officials overruled a state vaccine exemption for the tennis star that sparked a national uproar In the NBA Kyrie Irving made his return as the Nats down the pacers one 29 one 21 the Celtics wizards and warriors all lost Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick tank powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts more than a 120 countries I'm Michael Barr in this is Bloomberg Nathan All right Michael thanks it's 5 49 on Wall Street live from the Bloomberg interactive broker studios This is Bloomberg daybreak as we continue to gather reaction to the fed minutes we're joined this morning by Sarah house Senior economist at Wells Fargo Sarah it's good to have you with us this morning It was very interesting to see the market reaction yesterday particularly given the fact that we didn't see the same kind of reaction when the fed actually sped up the taper but the release of the minutes really seems to have caught investors off guard What did you make of it So I thought we saw that the fed was willing to adapt more quickly to evolve the conditions that we're seeing than certainly last cycle but even over the past year So there's this recognition that inflation is more persistent but also I think they're in a much happier place with where the labor market is And so I think that's all pointing towards an earlier liftoff and faster pace of tightening So you're thinking this isn't so much a hawkish tilt as a real hawkish pivot then I think we saw that with the dot plot but I think the minutes really codified what they were looking at what they were seeing And I think one thing that really underscored just how much quicker this tightening period is likely to be is a lengthy discussion on the balance sheet runoff So when do you think we will start to see rates take off Do you think the March meeting is live I think it's certainly live if you look at what beneficials have been saying but also just where the economy is So we're looking for the unemployment rate to hit 4% in the jobs report that we get out tomorrow So that's well within the range of what the fed considers is normal over the long run We already have inflation of course running well above the fed's target and looking like it's not going to come down to resemble the fed's target until probably at least 2023 at the earliest And so I think that the fed is really racing to calibrate policy to this higher inflation as well as this tighter labor market environment When you say the feds racing are you opening up the possibility that we could see a policy mistake from the fed Well I think we've seen a fairly quick recalibration of the situation So I think that does mitigate the chance of a policy mistake So if the fed were to follow through on the three rate increases that's been currently sketched out in the job plot I think that would help mitigate that that chance And I think we also have to bear in mind that the U.S. economy is set to moderate over this year already And so it's going to be a little bit of learning learning as they go But I think overall coming out of this December meeting there in a much better position Of course it's not just about rate hike as we saw from the minutes particularly it's about the balance sheet unwind When do you think that's going to start to happen Could it happen as rates are rising Well I think we certainly could see that occur as rates are raising We saw that in the last cycle so they did get a few rate hikes under their belt before they started to reduce the balance sheet But I think what really stuck out is not only the timing of that So the notion that it would grow relatively soon after liftoff But I think also the discussion around the pace was interesting So the fact that the economy is in a much stronger position than inflation is notably higher than the balance sheet is much larger as a share of the economy all pointed to a faster runoff as well So it looks like there's going to be a lot more movement and quicker movement than what we saw in the last runoff cycle Is it going to take policy tightening alone to get a handle on inflation particularly given sort of the exogenous effects out there from supply chain imbalances and that sort of thing can policy alone do it So it's depending on how tight we get policy of of course So perhaps with what the fed sketched out right now it by our estimates we still wouldn't be seeing inflation resembling target for a while but I think you will have help from a more organic pivot in terms of spending patterns So where we've seen a lot of the inflationary impulse or what's really unique about the cycle is what's happening with goods inflation I think as you see spending continue to pivot back towards services that's going to help alleviate some of the inflation pressures that we're seeing now So I think they're going to get some help from the U.S. consumers on their own even before you think about the impact of higher interest rates Thanks for the Sarah Good having you on with us this morning Sarah house is senior economist at Wells Fargo Karen Nathan it is 5 53 on Wall Street It's time for our Bloomberg law report exploring legal issues in the news and today we're looking at allegations against Andrew Cuomo The former New York governor is no longer facing criminal charges after the Albany district attorney said he won't pursue allegations that Cuomo groped a woman in the executive mansion more than a year ago District attorneys at Nassau and Westchester counties also recently ended their Cuomo probes without charges The former New York governor denies in a wrongdoing but quit over the controversies which included at least 11 allegations of sexual harassment For more on the matter Bloomberg student Grasso speaks to former federal prosecutor Jennifer.
Bloomberg Businessweek
Fresh update on "senior economist" discussed on Bloomberg Businessweek
"It was also made into a well -known movie we're referring to the bonfire of the vanities written by the late tom wolf the novelist was known to focus on status and its dark side humiliation and his portrait of the downfall entitled of bond trader sherman mccoy came to define an entire era so writes our next guest joe he is editor of bloomberg brief municipal market now over the last year just that many hours digging through the two hundred thirty six boxes stacked in the vault of the new york public library's main building in manhattan also known as the archives of tom wolf and some of the hidden gems that joe unearthed are featured in the remarks of the latest issue of bloomberg business week magazine i discovered this uh... episode of literary history i found a letter in the archives from tom wolff's tom wolff had been a trustee at saint rivers school in richmond he'd gone there graduate nineteen forty seven and there's a letter from the headmaster there saying you know i wish you'd give this guy uh... kirk matern a call he gave us a very nice bequest and as you know we're starting up our picking up our endowment campaign you know the archives are spread out on a lot of different boxes so that's not perfectly chronological so you're going through them and say uh... here here then this must be connected here and just like all of a sudden you know when i saw this response back to uh... uh... you know tom walth writes him and says thank you for this this is wonderful as you know we're starting up our endowment matern gets back to him and uh... honest was our prayer stationary says while you know thank you so much or your nice letter and you know what we have lunch sometime and you know not just us but i have some friends on the street who'd like to meet you too and i'm not going to put you on a podium let's just have informal an lunch and he sets up this lunch at the twenty one club now shuttered way and i think twenty one others separate letter for that and you know that then bond on one of the uh... letters tom starts drafting a reply saying you know you your friends were fascinating and they clued me into this this world that i do nothing about so i put all this together and i said wait a minute this guy kirk mattern is the guy who was responsible for sherman mccoy the protagonist uh... bonfire advantages becoming a wall street trader he had been in the rolling stone series this was a serialized version of bonfire serialized version of bonfire tom was writing it against deadline all the time he had been a writer and the title of his uh... book and it was never quite defined what it was was slices which of course is funny because tom wolfe's third novel is called a man in so i joe how did you find yourself at the new york public library looking through tom will now tom will smell it over the last year and and tell us how you came to know him your career and over over his okay i was i was in search of there's a there's a uh... lot couple lines of bonfire where sherwin mccoy's daughter asks and this is in the published version of the book book public says daddy what do you do what do you do what do you do all day and sharon mccoy starts to fumble moran and finally his wife uh... judy uh... says odd and i got and she said that he does is he slices the cake and he hands out slices and daddy gets to keep the crumbs and social recording i was completely humiliated by this and i think you're like wow the crumbs and at that you know they're out in south hampden right then uh... and uh... size i'd remember i asked tom one night uh... we're having dinner at ben benson's also now closed up with that did you come up with that and he goes no desmond fitzgerald and i remember the name desmond fitzgerald but you know you know last summer i i said wow remember that i thought that would be a nice column let me go to his papers and see if i could find that sure how difficult could it well very difficult because as i said two hundred and thirty six boxes and you you know you know don't you're not just faced with them you have to request different boxes and so it's a whole process so i'm looking i'm looking i'm looking and i didn't find i found kirk matern and so then kirk matern's son works on wall street and i said well wait a minute this can't be that kirk matern this is the son so i i emailed him cautiously and i said oh you know i don't know if your father's still alive but i'm looking to find out this information and and chat with him and he goes oh sure let me find out you know if you'd like to chat he's retired before and uh he got back to me and said yeah here's his email email address so then i got to call him up and you know i just like basically you're the guy you were the guy who changed the course of literary history really because if you if think about it on the one hand if you have uh you know here's a novel about a writer of a man in slices or this entire chaotic scene of what did he put it men baying for money on you know the floor of this wall street securities firm and of course you know bonfire was not a particularly good movie but but the wall street scenes really captured people's imagination because all of a sudden so this whole world is shown to you and you know one of the parts of this you know project as i was doing it kirk matern set up a meeting at to to go to solomon brothers during the treasury bond so that tom could just watch it and witness it and of course you know it was this wild thing and it happened that michael lewis was working at solomon brothers at that time had not yet written blires poker obviously so that's you know that was why i was searching through the papers and as i was searching through the papers i became sort of addicted because you know you go through and every box there's a little surprise like a little present i can only imagine you know like okay for example tom carol did this anthology called new journalist and there's an introduction basically made up of a couple of pieces he wrote for new york magazine and for esquire but there's oh you know and and what happened was i thought he just took those three parts and cobble them together no instead there's this manuscript hundreds of pages probably maybe even thousands of pages because the tom off writing was rewriting and it includes this entire maybe two hundred pages of all about his time at yale in graduate school which he has never written about before but there it is in the boxes at the new york public library tom did did not like graduate school idea that's joe my sack editor of bloomberg brief municipal market his story a in this week's remarks the new issue of the magazine now now on newsstands online and on the bloomberg terminal still to on come blimberg business week a different sort of wall street history lesson and why we may be in danger of repeating the mistakes that led to the great depression the arguments the defenses against regulation that emerged in the 20s and thirties art every surface today we'll speak with new york times best -selling author diana b. next this is bloomberg mr. favorite bloomberg radio show bloomberg business week masters in business intelligence and more are also available as podcasts listen today on apples spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts this is a bloomberg money minute we're heading toward a child care cliff at the end of this month 24 billion dollars in pandemic era government -aged child care providers is set to end the century foundation calculates more than seventy thousand child care programs could be in danger of closing with more than three million children losing their spots and while wells fargo senior economist sarah houses those are not hard and fast numbers it's hard to say if we would actually lose daycare capacity would be constrained if
Bloomberg Radio New York
"senior economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of rebuilding those inventories Sarah house them senior economist at Wells Fargo securities with Matt Miller and Kenny lines I'm Jonathan Ferro up 9 on the S&P advising two tenths of 1% another record high to close yesterday He also had a couple of basis points down to one 53 24 and you have two days left of trading in the United States for America as we close out 2021 Matt I know there's some complaints out there Why are we open for trading Never mind tomorrow but the whole of this week This is nicely roll 7.2 Thank you market watch for writing up this story which stipulates that the exchange will be closed either Friday or the following Monday if the holiday falls on a weekend Good news unless quote unusual business conditions exist such as the ending of a monthly or yearly accounting period and mat Miller for that matter for that reason will be at work tomorrow It sounds like those rules are written up in 1892 I agree with you It's so arbitrary I want to reiterate though I'm happy to be here at work and I'm thankful for this job That's listening Who is that message for this morning You know management are off to Matt They're not listening Yes although yesterday I was complaining about working during this week And I got a message from someone higher than me in the managerial chain who said don't you want to paycheck Yes I do I share that view Try to get a snap base pretty Gupta with a chart of the day to keep Matt out of trouble One 53 on tens I know you're looking at the yield curve really What do you see Yeah well one of the big questions that we're ending 2021 on essentially is if we're expecting three rate hikes in 2022 why are yields so low relative to that thought process So that brings me of course to the yield curve I like to look at history for moments like these to see if there's a pattern John and that's really what my chart of the day shows here Essentially the two tens curve going all the way back to 2010 going and really accounting for essentially the last recovery period this expansion that you've seen And I want to highlight three distinct parts of that historical timeline that I'm really highlighting First in 2013 where we talk about the taper tantrum 2016 with the Trump election And then of course what we are seeing now I'm just going to walk you through those in 2013 The big question was do we start to see a hike in monetary policy as signaled by a Ben Bernanke tapering We all remember that's really 2013 May 22nd I believe his testimony that sent yields higher the ten year old higher in particular And it kind of created this extreme reaction in the treasury market which was then turned around and paired back You saw a similar reaction with the Trump election in 2015 I believe 2016 excuse me for the 2017 starting of his term and you saw this massive kind of risk on behavior after his election this massive jump in yield and then it kind of turned around at the start of his term in 2017 You're seeing a similar thing now because at the end of 2020 that Pfizer Monday November 9th when he got that vaccine news you saw once again in this very extreme move and yield that is now getting paired down So we are kind of racking our minds talking about well what is the fundamental reason for some of these eels to be really my mind with all these dates How many years did you just give us I've given you a lot but there's a lot of history to get through so I got to run through them Matt But basically the takeaway here is that we're talking about fundamentals how much fundamentals are driving the market but sometimes it's just technical Sometimes you just reversing at a very extreme move and I'm sure Jon is cringing right now that I mentioned technicals but right now for the yield curve that seems to be what's driving the market But Tom Keane is smiling because he loves historical context creed He likes to take charge as far back as they go So you're doing the right thing At the same time when we talk about a flatter yield curve in theory that's not great for the banks Yet we've seen a persistently flattened flattened curve And the financials are up 33% this year one of the best performing groups in the S&P 500 They really are and that's really where you see that kind of massive disconnect The macro disconnect because a lot of folks have been saying well stock market is taking their cue from the bond market and they were earlier in the year And now you're starting to see that dispersion The question here is that if the bond market let's say even on a fundamental basis is perhaps pricing in slower economic growth in 2022 or perhaps the effect of the omicron variant as shown by the curve flattening well the stock market is still hitting record high after record high So that is something that's just isolated to financials where you're seeing that divergence You are seeing this in the broader market as well Is this all built off of 2022 earnings expectations critic The stock market It kind of seems like it is in addition to operating margins which have also if you're starting to look at how much operating margins are their prediction in 2022 the idea of the consensus seems to be that those margins will continue that a lot of these companies will still be able to pass on those essentially higher costs onto their consumers which is interesting because it's not what the bond market is saying The bond market is saying that inflation is still going to be a problem in 2022 Could they awesome as always I wasn't cringing at all Pretty good Thank you very much on this bond market It was actually reading through this Cathy wood thread tweet threads We storm whatever you want to call it from overnight Matt says the following In our view fears of inflation will give way to confusion and fears of recession during the next three to 6 months If so the rapid growth rates of truly innovative companies many of their equities maligned this year should be rewarded handsomely of course Kathy were talking a book to some extent Matt but an important thought exercise for us organic 22 Yeah absolutely And you said at the beginning of the week we haven't been talking enough about earnings And I think that's very true We started it off with Ed yardeni and I've been talking to pretty much every guest about it Since if we do have 8% 9% Gina Martin Adams saying almost double digit earnings growth in 2022 then that would continue the strength or you would think that the market strength would continue especially if we continue to give it these kind of valuations What do you.
WTOP 24 Hour News
Fresh "Senior Economist" from WTOP 24 Hour News
"Showers Both days through the middle of the work week. I'm WTOP meteorologist Brianna Berman Solo. Right now it's before degrees in Fort Belvoir 66 in Foggy Bottom 66 as well in Silver Spring brought be to by you long fence save 25 % on long fence decks pavers and fences six months no payment no For interest more interest financing, terms and conditions apply, go to longfence .com Money news at 10 and 40 past the hour here's Joan Doniger. This is a Bloomberg Money Minute. We're heading toward a child care cliff of at this the end month 24 billion dollars in pandemic era government aid to child care providers is set and the century foundation calculates more than 70 000 child care programs could be in danger of closing with more than 3 million children losing their spots and while Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House
Bloomberg Radio New York
"senior economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Wall Street time of the consumer price index for the month of November It is expected to show inflation that's already running hot It could be even higher than it's been since the 1980s Sarah house is with us this morning senior economist at Wells Fargo Sarah good morning you've seen the consensus on the Bloomberg terminal 6.8% year over year Is that we're getting Well we think we're actually going to get a little bit above that So we have inflation expected to increase 6.9% on a year over year basis So flirting with the 7% handle which I think is already pretty scary out there for consumers but I think that is going to keep the fed pretty uncomfortable with these inflation prints What has you thinking that the print is going to be that much hotter What are some of the factors that are going into that read Well then we're going to see another round of pretty broad based gains So we're expecting further strength and food I think there's still some room for energy to come through given the November number since gasoline prices didn't really begin to fall until very late in the month There's still some strength to come out of autos or based on what we've seen in terms of auction prices as well as just the lack of inventory for new cars We've seen less holiday discounts this year so that could add further strength to some items like apparel And then services inflation is just really getting going So more strength coming out of housing insurance and even some room for makeup in airfare prices we think given where they've been since the delta surge Of course we've heard from chairman Powell saying that it's probably time to retire the term transitory by now but how much of this do you think is driven by uncertainty around the pandemic the supply chain bottlenecks the things that we had expected we're going to iron themselves out sooner than they obviously have Well I still think it is very much tied to the pandemic in the tremendous shift in consumer spending that we've seen So even 20 months into the pandemic we're still seeing about 40% of real spending go towards goods We haven't seen numbers like that really at any time over the past two decades Since besides the pandemic So supply chains and networks are still digesting this tremendous increase in demand And so that's going to keep the heat turned up on inflation for a while And then in many ways the service is inflation that we're seeing is just now beginning to reflect those pandemic effects So just given the lag between housing And so I think the general idea that inflation is going to remain elevated for some time is very important but this is still very much tied to the pandemic I don't want to put you too much on the spot here but how long do you think a while is for these price pressures Well we have our CPI index remaining roughly at 3% by the end of next year So it's looking to be elevated It's still going to be consistent with levels above the fed's target And we want to look at inflation more in fed terms So we also have core inflation almost 3% at the end of next year So our assumption is that these bottleneck issues and what we're seeing what we're seeing in terms of inflation coming out of the good sector is going to be with us for the better part of the year And so I think inflation is going to be an issue hanging over the fed for 2022 We've already heard from the Biden administration downplaying this number based on some factors that you alluded to I think that the CPI isn't going to reflect recent drops in energy prices Is that the kind of thing that matters when it comes to gauging inflation expectations Well I think if you look at the monthly numbers of the head so we do have some softening But I think ultimately you're still looking at some of the biggest price increases We've seen in a generation So I think it's going to take some time for consumers to perhaps come down over these types of numbers I think you're still going to see people very concerned about how much their purchasing power is holding up for a while just given the degree of these numbers even if they do start to moderate a bit over the coming months Do you think this inflation number is going to be the kind of thing that cements a faster taper from the fed when they meet next week Our expectation is that the fed does accelerate the taping based on our inflation forecast and also the commentary But I think one thing that's getting lost in this conversation of the faster taper and the connection with inflation is that they're also making a lot of headway on their employment side of their mandate So I think in general they're feeling more comfortable with the overall state of the economy and where they are with their two objectives And so I think that also is a consideration in the faster taper But we do think that they accelerate the pace to wrap up things earlier And at least give them the option to perhaps increase the fed funds rate earlier than what they had sketched out and their most recent summary of economic projections All right we're going to be watching very closely obviously when that CPI comes out 8 30 Wall Street times Sarah house senior economist at Wells Fargo Thanks for your insights ahead of that release.
Bloomberg Intelligence
Fresh update on "senior economist" discussed on Bloomberg Intelligence
"Stay And with the us. Bloomberg GOP Business Today's Act. leaders top stories are working and through global the weekend business in Broadcasting hopes headlines of avoiding 24 a hours government a shutdown. day at Bloomberg told House Speaker reporters Kevin McCarthy today that he's optimistic some sort of deal will be worked out ahead of the September 30th deadline. The California Republican called it crunch time. McCarthy added that he's willing to accept a stopgap funding bill to keep the government running. The third Republican presidential debate will be in Miami on November 8th. The Republican National Committee announced the news Friday. The RNC also announced this debate will have the toughest requirements yet for candidates to qualify taking the stage. GOP candidates will have to reach 4 % in multiple polls and they'll need at least 70 ,000 individual donors to be allowed to participate. The party is yet to announce who will moderate the third debate. Democratic Representative Andy Kim of New Jersey is challenging Senator Bob Menendez for his Senate seat. This week Menendez The was Republican presidential debate is yet to announce who will moderate the second debate. Kim wrote, I feel compelled to run against him, not something I expected to do but New Jersey deserves better. We cannot jeopardize the Senate or compromise our integrity. Mexico has reached an agreement with the US in an effort curb to the number of migrants crossing the border. A record -breaking 233 ,000 people cross the border illegally in August, prompting the mayor of Eagle Pass, Texas to declare state of emergency. On Friday, Mexican officials with met US Border Patrol and reached an agreement to depressurize Mexico's northern cities. Mexico agreed to a series of 15 actions to lessen the number of migrant crossings. They include conducting interventions in Mexican railways and highways and allowing Border Patrol agents to expel migrants through El Paso. Hogan Hulk is a married man. The WWE icon tied the knot with Sky Daily in Florida on Friday. pair The were married by their pastor at the church they regularly attend. I'm Chris Caraggio. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is declaring today Bruce Springsteen Day in honor of the Jersey born rocker. Murphy says if anybody deserves a James sake day, it's Bruce Springsteen and September 23rd just happens to be the rock legend's birthday. In April the governor unveiled his proclamation at the inaugural American Music Honors event at the Bruce Springsteen Archives and Center for American Music at Monmouth University. Murphy said it's important that we recognize Bruce for all that he has done and continue will to do. Fall has officially arrived. Today marks the autumnal equinox which refers to the sun being directly above the Earth's equator. The Latin term roughly means equal parts day and night. Astronomers say the moment arrived precisely at 2 .50 a .m. Eastern Daylight Time. In the northern hemisphere the days will now become shorter until the winter solstice on December 21st. Doctors have transplanted a pig heart into living a human recipient. The University of Maryland Medical Center said in a news release that the patient, 58 year old Lawrence Fawcett, is now breathing on his own and his heart is functioning well. He had end -stage heart disease and told the hospital in an internal interview before the surgery that his only real hope left was to go forward with the pig heart. The experimental surgery was approved by the FDA under its compassionate use program and the holiday hiring spree is getting underway. Target plans to bring in 100 ,000 seasonal workers, while Amazon is looking hire to a quarter of a million temporary employees. The e -commerce giant also says it's bumping the average hourly pay for warehouse and delivery workers. Actor Pauly Shore posted on social media that he wants to play 1980s fitness celebrity Richard Simmons in a movie. He said that he's been playing phone tag trying to contact Simmons to get his permission. Simmons hosted his own TV show and sold millions of his sweat into the oldies videos. Shore starred in movies such as Encino Man and Son -in -Law after gaining fame on his MTV show Totally and now this Bloomberg sports update busy day in the college top 25 chock full of nationally ranked teams squaring off against each other, six to be exact, three of them in the Pac -12 matchups like Deion Sanders and his Colorado Buffalos at Oregon. Primetime spotlight quickly turned off. Oregon cruises to a 42 -6 win. Sanders after the loss. Good old -fashioned butt -kicking. No excuses. Their coaches No nothing. did a heck of a job preparing their team. Obviously we didn't. That was good. I mean that was a really good old -fashioned butt -kick. We went into the game wanting to dominate several phases. We lost defensively as well as special teams that fake punt kind of got them really rolling and they didn't stop. get Doesn't any easier for Colorado. They return home to host USC next week. Elsewhere in the top 65. Michigan beat Rutgers and Jim Harbaugh's return. Alabama shut down Ole Miss in half. the second One going away. Texas no trouble at Baylor. Sixth ranked Ohio State won an epic game in South Bend Final play against the Irish. Number seven Penn State shutout. 24th ranked Iowa. Florida State, Georgia, Tennessee, Utah and LSU. All victorious. Locally Columbia beat Georgetown 30 -0 And Syracuse beat Army 29 -16 to move to 4 -0. Yankees and Diamondbacks postpone at Yankee Stadium to Mother Nature. They'll make up the game Monday at 105. Arizona currently in the playoffs as a National League wildcard. Series resumes Sunday at 135. Starters pushed back a day. Zach Gallant snakes opposite Carlos Rodon. Mets beaten in Philadelphia again by the playoff bound Phillies 7 5 as the Phillies they'll play for a four -game sweep Sunday at 105. And it's week three and the NFL Jets They host the Patriots who have dropped 14 in a row to New England dating back to the Tom Brady era. And MLS Saturday the Red Bulls beat DC United at home 5 -3. NYFC's in Toronto On on Sunday with your Bloomberg Sports Update, I'm Rob Bushcare. This is a Bloomberg Money Minute. We're heading toward a child care cliff at the end of this month. $24 billion in pandemic air at government -aged child care providers is set to end the century Foundation calculates more than 70 ,000 child care programs could be in danger of closing with more than 3 million children losing their spots and well Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah houses those are not hard and fast numbers it's hard to say if we would actually lose daycare or just capacity would be constrained if they're gonna have more difficulty hiring with the quality be of she care does might say the end of that aid could put a dent in the size of the labor force the research has shown time and again the access to affordable quality consistent child care it boosts women's participation and how says women with young children have helped drive gains in prime age workers anything that's going to that dent labor supply I think could challenge this narrative of perhaps a soft landing Joan Doniger Bloomberg radio this is Bloomberg intelligence we're really getting into now the streaming arms race this is looking at that and saying we can really build a nice niche for ourselves in -depth research and data on 2 ,000 companies and 130 industries the dollar is the dominant content in the planet I think the acquisition is a natural progression of what Microsoft can do with this technology going forward Bloomberg intelligence with Alex Steele and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg radio over the next hour we're gonna dig inside the big business stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets each and every Every week we provide in -depth research and data on some of the 2 ,000 companies and 130 industries our analysts cover worldwide. Today we're gonna take a look at regional banks as their regulatory burden rises. Plus, will light trucks carry the load for Ford through 2025
Bloomberg Radio New York
"senior economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Numbers are going to be very much driven by inventories not necessarily inventories are being rebuilt They're just not being drawn down a significantly So I think that's really going to obfuscate that some of the weakness that we did see in Q three both in terms of real spending and the fact that we still can't source enough materials and products in this economy But I think we get a few ketchup quarters later in 2022 which is going to keep that keep growth later later in the back half of the year above trend Consumer balance sheet still remarkably strong Labor market income is growing very very strong as well So maybe for individuals real earnings they're getting eroded right now by inflation but you still have hundreds of thousands of people coming back into the labor market and seeing higher earnings and that's going to keep consumer spending on a strong track Is it a service sector pickup Q two Q three next year Is that what we're missing right now And we're going to get it later on Exactly So we're going to see that pivot back towards services accelerate So we've seen some demand for goods ease up over the past 5 months or so So durable goods peaked 5 months ago durable goods spending in terms of real terms peaked 5 months ago But I think once we get to the end of cold and flu season as you see people more confident about going out and spending I think you will see that shift towards services accelerate And of course as you see that pivot that's also going to help relieve some of these bottlenecks that we continue to talk about We're speaking with Sarah House of Wells Fargo senior economist and Sarah one of the biggest questions that people have right now is whether we're seeing a sea change in the employment marker with market with a shift of power to labor And this goes to the job openings that we've seen in the idea that the skilled labor has been really missing for a lot of companies How much do you see evidence of that shift in power to labor I think we've seen quite a bit of it Anything from the job openings whether it's the jolt survey the indeed job openings as well I think we're certainly seeing it in the wage numbers You know last cycle we saw that businesses were absolutely loathed to increase the absolute last thing they wanted to do And of course here we have average hourly earnings at 4.6% So we'll get a better look at what's happening with those wage and pay dynamics when we get the out on Friday So I think importantly it's going to also show us what's happening across benefits So of course we've seen these headlines about the absolute pay But what's happening in terms of perhaps those one time signing bonuses are companies having to hold the line a little bit more on the benefits to account for these for these nominal wage increases that they need to wear workers back to the job site And so I think that'll be an important factor As well as we think about the composition of this So I think one thing we've seen is these wage pressures particularly concentrated and lower pain industries whereas higher paid workers are flexing that power more in terms of non pecuniary benefits So where they work from how many days they have to go into the office And so that's a little bit of a different calculation in terms of how that filters through to inflation as just the pure wage dynamics to get some of those in person lower pay service workers back to the job site Sarah if this shift really is going on why is it that inflation won't be stickier than a lot of people think Well I think we have to remember what happens with productivity So productivity is a way that we can afford to pay our workers more without actually having to pass on those costs quarter after quarter And so I think that's a factor that I think keeps the inflation outlook from becoming uncontrolled So we've seen of course major investments across all types of businesses over the past 18 months and I think including in some labor saving technology as well And so I think that's a factor that's going to help keep those wage costs under control And again I do think that we're going to see some supply return And so I think that's going to have these wage pressures that we've been seeing more recently ease up over the back half of 2022 The constructive ad look there from Sarah house there of Wells Fargo Sarah thank you Thank you very much Coming up at the open in about 21 minutes from now we'll catch up with Joanne Feeney advised his capital management partner Tom We'll be talking about the week ahead dominated by the week ahead earnings from big tech Although the earnings with the revenue I really can't say this enough John that and John's office at OpCo I think really laid this out nicely Sure there's a yearning dynamic and all that But his model revenue number is 16% up for the 117 companies that are reported John I did not expect that Well for the top 5 what did I say earlier from Bloomberg intelligence 19 19 I didn't know the revenue mix of the numbers are just fantastic in terms of what people are expecting Which is really frankly the story of earnings The idea here that people have seen the supply chain disruptions they know that prices are going up They know that it's going to crimp margins But it hasn't in so many cases and sales have just remained so robust It hasn't crimped demand that much I think that is a really big story It's my favorite week of earnings guys Tech earnings That's why I'm taking Thursday and Friday on It's a celebrate Just to sound it right And look ahead to next week which is what we really care about right Payrolls Friday next week and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday Tom the Bank of England on the Thursday Next week you're off next week You're off the Monday I sit in your diary Tom Keith I'm glad somebody has am I off Monday You're off Monday I didn't know that You put it in No No I didn't Okay You've got a long weekend son I approved it last week You've got Monday off I'm still I'm recovering here I watched perdue lose to Wisconsin How did that thank God It didn't go well because they beat the Iowa's really bad and they didn't It was not You watch Bama get it done No I didn't track it to see And we got Michigan Michigan state coming up which we talked about It's like the game of the Senate They can spend the week talking about a team Yeah Why are we talking about Purdue I don't know Okay It's amazing They're uniforms looked like the Colorado buffaloes That's why Tom Kane Lisa brahe and Jonathan Ferro Lovely Good show Goodbye I want this year either This is Bloomberg.
AP News Radio
US Hiring Surges In July, But The Variant Is The Wild Card
"Even as the economy shows signs of a surprisingly strong pandemic recovery there are fears of resurgent virus could send it back the delta variant is the wild card but the White House says the nation shouldn't worry much about its effects on the economy this is not March twenty twenty or even January twenty twenty one spokeswoman Jen Psaki says the country is in a much better place with vaccines there will not be lockdowns we are not turning back the clock Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah house says she doesn't expect any widespread restrictions that would badly hurt the economy but the delta spread may have some impact that might lead some people to to curbs on their outings and and spending and therefore potentially some from hiring Sager mag ani Washington
Africa Business News
"senior economist" Discussed on Africa Business News
"For about seven percent of dollars. Which is i mean. It's carter is takes over one of the less developed countries. If i may because seven percent what your non oil that tells you that you don't have a strong industrial base that commodity feed compete with other countries. Not to sound like it dooms the but the key message is that years they'll begin they'll be losers and it also depends lodge jones. How the government of that country positions itself to take advantage of the opportunities. Now the big question from me is ready to take advantage of this Well from an economic point of view. I don't think we are. We certainly are not especially when you look at the data. Now there are several things are jump to a question and there are several things that e country must do. Okay on i think for nigeria. I don't think we've done. I'm su- much. There's been so much. Walk around the deal itself on national action committee trying to put a few things together but we are. The internet reforms. Needed been down. We've not done that yet. So one of the things is capacity of your local industries you must be able to stimulate production and he's not just production production exports. Because that's what these he's also about. And if you look at the data for nigeria less than one percent of unknown oil product is what we export. So what that basically means is when you break down into oil and non oil now that share of non or how much of it do we. Exports is less than one percent of us to he tells you that we have a lot to do in terms of Supporting businesses small businesses to grow to target markets. And this is Something countries like china for instance dwindle into a growing countries like singapore. The what they did was to identify these industries Setup standards for these industries supported local businesses targeted market. Some countries don't even have they don't even need what they produce because contrary beane needs it just for the markets..
KTAR 92.3FM
"senior economist" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM
"The appointments will be at the new state run vaccination cited Phoenix Me. Municipal stadium, February 5th through the 18th appointments of both state run sites in the Valley were fully booked before these new appointments. Deborah Dale, Katya our news to our eyes on the economy, 3/5 of all jobs that haven't come back from the pandemic are high contact, like in bars, theaters salons. Wells Fargo Senior economist Mark Vitner expects them back by the start of next year. We don't know we just don't know Ella vaccinations are gonna play out very hopeful and very encouraged by what we're seeing, but hopefully we won't see a setback and some sort of mutation of the virus vendor says Covets banks and one part of the country will hurt the whole country's economy. And people will keep moving to Phoenix. So for better paying jobs and cheaper homes, pandemic or not, as we continue to explore the impact of cancer on both firefighters and the Valley cities they work for Tempe is now working to catch the disease. Early. Firefighters in Tempe are now getting free cancer screenings at Vince, your Cancer center in Scottsdale. This after the city match to grant securing a one year program. Just enough resource is to have all of our firefighters from fire chief all the way down to the brand new firefighter have cancer screening. In Tempe Deputy chief Mark Maynor says the recent loss of one of their own pushes others to go get checked. We lost firefighter Tommy are al got about a year ago. And you know it's so tragic when a young late thirties felt an occupational cancer and you lose him. Ventnor Katya, our new Katya our news time 707. And now here's Detour.
KQED Radio
"senior economist" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Edition from NPR News of Lulu Garcia Navarro. Thanks so much for being with us this morning, the most recent economic data puts it plainly, the pandemic has throttled the American economy. While it's been hard on all of us, the economic fallout is being dubbed a she session. Women have been profoundly affected with female unemployment, hitting the double digits this past year for the first time since 1948. And unemployment among black and Latinas is significantly higher than that of white women and men. We're joined now by Aly School, She's senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, and she's going to talk to us about this. Thank you so much for being with us. Thank you for inviting me. So let's start with the why, you know why are women suffering more economic hardship, more job losses? This recession is very different from other recessions. In that we are seeing different kinds of sectors hit leisure and hospitality, more than another sectors that is the sector that is disproportionately born by women and particularly black and Hispanic women. And lower wage jobs or hit those air also disproportionately jobs filled by women. And we should mention of course, that we can't talk about women without talking about race. The pandemic, as I mentioned has been much more devastating for black and Hispanic women. Is it again about the types of jobs that these women hold? I think when we talk about the pandemic, we can't just talk about the labor market. We also have to talk about the pandemic itself, and what we know has happened for black and Hispanic workers and their families that they have both been decimated by job losses but also been disproportionately impacted. On the health front. And so when you think about the labor market, there's three different things that have happened to people over the last year. One is they have been able to keep their jobs. They are safely working from home, and those are mainly white collar people right there. Disproportionally white, they're disproportionately higher wage. Another group are those people who have are on the front lines and we're seeing very high levels of co vid. In families that have those workers. Also, some of those families are more likely to be a multigenerational families. They're living with more vulnerable family members. And then there's the third group, and that's what we're really talking about. Today. Those are those people who have lost their jobs, so workers across the economy but disproportionately again. Lower wage workers, Women, black and Hispanic workers have lost their jobs at greater numbers, and the recovery has really yet to reach them yet, so this is not a single story. This pandemic recession has affected people and a myriad of different ways and again revealed what is underlying the American economy, which is he's stark inequalities and how Things affect different groups differently. I am going to ask about women again, though, because care giving must play a role in this yet and you're absolutely right. When you mention that this is uncovering Many disparities that were already underlying the U. S economy, as you say, for Mother's disproportionately for parents, those with caregiving responsibilities. It's not like things were so easy for them beforehand. Many now disproportionately. Many women were already facing many difficulties balancing, let's say family and other caregiving responsibilities not just for parents but also Women disproportionately have to care for other family members, elderly parents or in laws or spouses, and we do not have the kind of safety net in this society in the United States that supports women in those roles, and so then it's not surprising when the pandemic hits. And you have women. Not just leaving the labor force but really being pushed out of the Labor Force. One group that has had the biggest employment hit is unpardonable mothers. So what do you think The long term implications of this might be, Um, In terms of when women are able to re enter the workforce in the economy opens back up. What will that look like? The more quickly we can get on the other side of the pandemic, The less likely there will be long standing effects, and that's why I think policymakers need to act now trying to deal with the pandemic itself. But families really need that relief now when we talk about those parents who are unable to work We need to make sure they have unemployment insurance benefits. Make sure they have that safety net when there's many people that are falling through the cracks in the system, and that's what those stimulus checks will provide as well. We could consider making some of those checks more permanent with a child allowance. There are millions of Children in this country that are in poverty, that air going without food, and we could really take some steps to improving that. I think that when we think about the long term impacts are again how quickly we can get back. To pre pandemic levels and how seriously we're going to take on some of these policy issues that the pandemic uncovered things like paid sick days, right? We shouldn't have people going toe work. Sick, sending their kids to school sick. That should never be happening. Let's fix that. And that will disproportionately help women who have those caregiving responsibilities. I mean, because we've talked about The underlying problems of the U. S economy in the before times that this is exposed. I guess the question then becomes. Are we going back to that? Normal. I think that before times are certainly better than the now when we think about Let's say what the unemployment rate is now for white workers..
KQED Radio
"senior economist" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Weekend edition from NPR News of the loo. Garcia Navarro. Thanks so much for being with us this morning. The most recent economic data puts it plainly, the pandemic has throttled the American economy. And while it's been hard on all of us, the economic fallout is being dubbed a she session. Women have been profoundly affected with female unemployment, hitting the double digits this past year for the first time since 1948. And unemployment among black and Latinas is significantly higher than that of white women and men. We're joined now by Aly School, She's senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, and she's going to talk to us about this. Thank you so much for being with us. Thank you for inviting me. So let's start with the why. You know why women suffering more economic hardship, more job losses. This recession is very different from other recessions. In that we are seeing different kinds of sectors hit leisure and hospitality, more than other sectors. That is the sector that is disproportionately Worn by women and particularly black and Hispanic women, and lower wage jobs or hit those air also disproportionately jobs filled by women. And we should mention of course, that we can't talk about women without talking about race. The pandemic, as I mentioned has been much more devastating for black and Hispanic women. Is it again about the types of jobs that these women hold? I think when we talk about the pandemic, we can't just talk about the labor market. We also have to talk about the pandemic itself. And what we know has happened for black and Hispanic workers and their families that they have both been decimated by job losses, but also been disproportionately impacted on the health front. And so when you think about the labor market, there's three different things that have happened to people over the last year. One is they have been able to keep their jobs. They are safely working from home. And those are mainly white collar people right there. Disproportionally white, they're disproportionately higher wage. Another group are those people who have are on the front lines, and we're seeing very high levels of coded in families that have those workers. Also, some of those families are more likely to be a multigenerational families They're living with. More vulnerable family members. And then there's the third group, and that's what we're really talking about. Today. Those are those people who have lost their jobs, so workers across the economy but disproportionately again. Lower wage workers, Women, black and Hispanic workers have lost their jobs at greater numbers, and the recovery has really yet to reach them yet, so this is not a single story. This pandemic recession has affected people and myriad of different ways and again revealed what is underlying the American economy, which is he's stark inequalities and how Things affect different groups differently. I am going to ask about women again, though, because care giving must play a role in this yet and you're absolutely right. When you mention that this is uncovering Many disparities that were already underlying the U. S economy, as you say, for mother's disproportionately for parents, those with caregiving responsibilities. It's not like things were so easy for them beforehand. Many now since proportionately many women were already facing many difficulties balancing, let's say family and other caregiving responsibilities not just for parents but also Women disproportionately have to care for other family members, elderly parents or in laws or spouses, and we do not have the kind of safety net in this society in the United States that supports women in those roles, and so then it's not surprising when the pandemic hits. And you have women. Not just leaving the labor force but really being pushed out of the Labor Force. One group that has had the biggest employment hit is unpardonable mothers. So what do you think The long term implications of this might be in terms of when women are able to re enter the workforce in the economy opens back up. What will that look like? The more quickly we can get on the other side of the pandemic, The less likely there will be long standing effects, and that's why I think policymakers need to act now trying to deal with the pandemic itself. But families really need that relief now when we talk about those parents who are unable to work We need to make sure they have unemployment insurance benefits. Make sure they have that safety net when there's many people that are falling through the cracks in the system, and that's what those stimulus checks will provide as well. We could consider making some of those checks more permanent with a child allowance. There are millions of Children in this country that are in poverty, that air going without food, and we could really take some steps to improving that. I think that when we think about the long term impacts are again how quickly we can get back. To pre pandemic levels and how seriously we're going to take on some of these policy issues that the pandemic uncovered things like paid sick days, right? We shouldn't have people going to work. Sick, sending their kids to school sick. That should never be happening. Let's fix that. And that will disproportionately help women who have those care, giving responsibilities. I mean, because we've talked about The underlying problems of the U. S economy in the before times that this is exposed. I guess the question then becomes. Are we going back to that? Normal. I think that before times are certainly better than the now when we think about Let's say what the unemployment rate is now for white workers..
KCRW
"senior economist" Discussed on KCRW
"Economy about 2.5% smaller than it was when the year began. Some industries are doing okay. Despite the pandemic, you know, Construction's booming manufacturing's pretty strong, It's in person. Businesses like restaurants, bars hotels that are really struggling. And Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says that's a big part of the economy until it's fixed. We're not going to be out of the woods. We're a long way from a full recovery. Something like nine million people remain unemployed as a consequence of the pandemic. That's as many people as lost their jobs at the peak of the global financial crisis in the great recession. Now That is an improvement from the worst point last year when we were down some 22 million jobs, but it's still painful. And just this morning we learned another close to 1.3 Million people filed new claims for unemployment last week. And what's it gonna take to make that up? Getting control of this virus. You know, the Fed is doing its part. They're keeping interest rates near zero late last month, Congress came through with another round of relief payments. President Biden's pushing Congress to do more of that. But ultimately federal and Powell says the economic recovery is gonna depend on solving the public health problem. There's nothing more important to the economy now than people getting vaccinated. If you think about the places where the economy is weak, I mentioned bars and restaurants. That's 400,000 jobs we lost last month, and that's all Because of the spread of the pandemic. Pal who is 67 years old, got his first shot of vaccine Not long ago, he says he expects to get a second dose pretty soon. But we know it's gonna take months until everybody who wants a vaccine in the country can have one. And in the meantime, public health experts are saying we're wearing facemasks following social distancing guidelines can also help. So, looking ahead, Scott, What is the outlook for the economy? This coming here? Right now, We are still seeing thousands of covert 19 deaths every day, and that is going to continue to weigh on economic activity for at least a few more months. If we are successful, though, in stopping the pandemic, we could see the economy grow pretty rapidly in the second half of the year. Ben Hers on is a senior economist at HS Market, he says there could be a lot of pent up demand for the kind of in person services that we've been missing for these last 10 months or so. Although he cautions, it's not entirely clear that all the money that wasn't spent last year will suddenly come pouring into the economy right away. Some will some won't One example is his haircuts. You you probably won't get more custody, otherwise what up, But maybe people are really tired of staying at home and they will go out to eat more than they would otherwise. The combination of vaccines and some additional government spending does have folks raising their forecast for the coming year. The International Monetary Fund, for example, now projects the economy will grow more than 5% in 2021. That would bring us all the way out of the hole we were in last year and put the economy back on pre pandemic footing. Sometime in the second half of the year. I'd know about you, Scott, but I need it least one haircut. Thanks for being with us. Good to be with you. Scott.
KQED Radio
"senior economist" Discussed on KQED Radio
"That is April through June, which is to say just as the pandemic recession was settling in on us. And get this delinquencies stayed low in the third quarter as well, It sounds like a good thing. Is marketplace. Justin Home reports. Yeah, Maybe. The report found that credit card delinquencies foul, in part because people use government relief aid to pay off their bills. Rob Strand, the senior economist with the American Bankers Association. He says it also helped that credit card balances were already following consumers have become much more careful about their spending. According to the New York Federal Reserve. That trend started at the beginning of 2020 10 Quinlan, the senior economist with Wells Fargo. That is what you kind of want to see in the context of healthy consumer factor. Thing is, Quinlan says. We shouldn't get too excited when fewer people are delinquent on their credit card bills. That's because credit card balances are a relatively small part of overall household debt. It's the smallest overall category, much knowledge and mortgages and a little bit smaller than auto loans and and even student loans. And the people paying off their bills last year don't represent the entire economy, says Teresa Ghilarducci, an economist at the new school. Having dead on your credit card is a middle class phenomena. Your duty says people with high incomes tend to have low balances, on the other hand, for people of have a hard time getting access to a credit card, so they're not fully banked. Your duty says some of the most troubling forms of that right now, our student loans and the debt many renters over their landlords. The government has deferred those payments for now, but Those arrears are mounting. And so we are seeing a situation where poor people have a lot more accumulated debt That's just been built up. Your duty says in the long run student loans and rent will be much bigger hurdles than the country's credit card debt. I'm.
KQED Radio
"senior economist" Discussed on KQED Radio
"That is April through June, which is to say just as the pandemic recession was settling in on us. And get this delinquencies stayed low in the third quarter as well, It sounds like a good thing. Is marketplace. Justin Home reports. Yeah, Maybe. The report found that credit card delinquencies foul, in part because people use government relief aid to pay off their bills. Rob Strand of senior economist with the American Bankers Association. He says it also helped that credit card balances were already falling. Consumers have become much more careful about their spending. According to the New York Federal Reserve. That trend started at the beginning of 2020 10 Quinlan, the senior economist with Wells Fargo. That is what you kind of want to see in the context of healthy consumer factor. Thing is, Quinlan says, We shouldn't get too excited when fewer people are delinquent on their credit card bills. That's because credit card balances are a relatively small part of overall household debt. It's the smallest overall category, much knowledge and mortgages and a little bit smaller than auto loans and and even student loans, and the people paying off their bills last year don't represent the entire economy, says Teresa Ghilarducci, an economist at the new school. Having dead on your credit card is a middle class phenomena. Your duty says people with high incomes tend to have low balances, on the other hand, for people of have a hard time getting access to a credit card, so they're not fully banked. Your duty says some of the most troubling forms of that right now, our student loans and that many renters over landlords the government has deferred those payments for now, but Those arrears are mounting. And so we are seeing a situation where poor people have a lot more accumulated debt That's just been built up. Your duty says in the long run student loans and rent will be much bigger hurdles in the country's credit card debt..
KCRW
"senior economist" Discussed on KCRW
"That is April through June, which is to say just as the pandemic recession was settling in on us. And get this delinquencies stayed low in the third quarter as well, It sounds like a good thing. Is marketplace. Justin Home reports. Yeah, Maybe. The report found that credit card delinquencies foul, in part because people use government relief aid to pay off their bills. Rob Strand, the senior economist with the American Bankers Association. He says it also helped that credit card balances were already falling. Consumers have become much more careful about their spending. According to the New York Federal Reserve. That trend started at the beginning of 2020 10 Quinlan, the senior economist with Wells Fargo. That is what you kind of want to see in the context of healthy consumer factor. Thing is, Quinlan says. We shouldn't get too excited when fewer people are delinquent on their credit card bills. That's because credit card balances are relatively small part of overall household debt. It's the smallest overall category, much knowledge and mortgages and a little bit smaller than auto loans and and even student loans. And the people paying off their bills last year don't represent the entire economy, says Teresa Ghilarducci, an economist at the new school. Having dead on your credit card is a middle class phenomena. Your duty says people with high incomes tend to have low balances. On the other hand, poor people of have a hard time getting access to a credit card, so they're not fully banked. Your duty says some of the most troubling forms of that right now, our student loans and the debt many renters over landlords. The government has deferred those payments for now, but those arrears are mounting. And so we are seeing a situation where poor people have a lot more accumulated debt That's just been built up. Your duty says in the long run student loans and rent will be much bigger hurdles than the country's credit card debt..
KTAR 92.3FM
"senior economist" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM
"57 degrees, an anthem coronavirus in Arizona about 20 coronavirus. Vaccination sites are set up in penile county. But good luck getting an appointment as because there is so much vaccine available, so we are seeing some angry people frustrated people. We're seeing some people really upset and crying because they can't get an appointment. The county's health director, Dr Tasha Spears, is pleading for more vaccines to keep up with demand Canal Counties website Has reported that while an estimated 75,000 residents are eligible for the vaccine right now, there isn't any available because they only got about 15,000 doses. This week, there was supposed to get another 3500 doses, but much hasn't hasn't arrived yet. Our state Health department is shut down a downtown Phoenix bar over Cove. It concerns the press room near Fifth Avenue and Madison is accused of ignoring the governor's executive orders and hosting a crowded concert over the weekend. The Health Department says continued defiance of the orders will result in legal action. Katya our eyes on the economy, Zillow ranks the Valley is the second hottest real estate market for 2021. But why is Austin, Texas first? Zillow says, Don't split hairs. I would say Phoenix has nothing to be sad about, senior economist Chris Glynn says. Both capital cities are welcoming people from the coast looking for more affordable homes and better paying jobs. But phoenixes inventory may not be growing fast. Enough. Phoenix has had this remarkable run of price appreciation home value growth in recent years. And the question is how long that run can last. Glynn says Phoenix will stay hot as long as people keep buying homes at historically low interest rates and employers allow more of them to work from home, Peter, say. Mork H E a R News. Someone's going to be able to buy any house they want. And as many as they want the fourth largest jackpot in Powerball history has been one. We have another life changing Jack Hot for the loan winning ticket worth just over $730 million was purchased in Maryland, matching all six numbers. It was the 36 drawing in the jackpot run that started back on September. 19th of last year, the longest jackpot run in Powerball history. But don't throw those tickets out 12 tickets matched all five white balls for $1 million and Then there's Friday's mega millions Drawing That jackpot is up to $970 Million, second highest in that game's history. Todd Aunt ABC News Can you imagine winning almost a billion dollars? No. What? I can't either. I can't even wrap my head around that I don't trust myself with that kind of money, either. Katie, our news time coming up a vibe 07. Now, if you look at the history of people in one big jackpots, their lives don't necessarily improve. Sometimes they get a lot lot worse. I think there's a show on that cable channels about nightmares of people of one big jackpots. Be careful what you wish for. All right, Let's get you over.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"senior economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. I'm Michel Bar and this is Bloomberg. Nathan Michael. Thank you. It is 5 19 on Wall Street now live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers. Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. Let's dig even deeper into president elected Biden's economic rescue package. Mark Vitner joins us now. Senior economist at Wells Fargo. Ah, lot of provisions to dive into here, Mark what stands out to you, and is this plan the right one to target economic recovery. Well, we need to the large plant we needed. We needed something that was going to be large because we know that with the resurgence of the virus, we're seeing that that economic engagement is pulling back. And that the start of this year is likely to be pretty slow. You know, I don't know that. I don't know what the right mix is. I know that it has to be large and certainly the $1400 additional checks. Really meaningful and likely the boost growth above what we were. We were expecting if it was to come long. And the the expansion of unemployment benefits. You know that that one measure might actually cause the unemployment rate on the club that claims to rise a little bit more than they would otherwise. Because They're likely to entice a few more people back into into filing for the for those benefits. And it may take a little bit longer for folks to come back into the workforce. Um, although I really think that with covert 19 that those arguments don't carry as much weight as they usually but Course there. Other aspect of this plan, like boosting the minimum wage to $15 an hour that I think it's safe to say might have a little bit more. Political difficulty. Yeah, that's probably the biggest eye opener in there because it doesn't really have a direct link to covert 19 in N A. I don't know that when that we're not going to see a higher minimum wage at some time during the bite administration. And the president elect even cited the example of Florida voting to raise the minimum least $50 an hour. They didn't vote to raise it this year, though they're going to raise it in steps over I believe the next five years we'll get there in 2026. So I do think that even at the federal of efforts to raise the minimum wage would be staggered. On would take place over a number of years so it wouldn't take place this year. In terms of the top line number and even the size of stimulus checks of the extent of extension of unemployment benefits. Do you see these levels of spending holding up or is this going to have to be negotiated down? It'll probably be negotiated down. I mean, everything in politics is a negotiation, but but I do think it will be a very large program. In addition of this bite is going to push for for an infrastructure program to which No. I think every new president tries to push for one. They take a long time to get put together and they take a long time to get enacted. But we really do need more investment in infrastructure. I think the real question is going to be is how much stimulus is already in the pipeline. And what does this do to us A year out when we're trying to come out, come up with a step back from all of this increase government spending I think the concern and the reason why I think there's there's near uniform agreement that more stimulus is needed. Is that this resurgence of the viruses has proven to be worse than expected. We've got the mutations, which creates some unknown downside risk. And this stimulus this additional stimulus provide the economy some downside protection. What's likely to be a fairly weak period freaking on the growth. During the first few months of 2021. So in our last 30 seconds here, what kind of impact do you think A plan like this could have on economic growth? Would it cause you to adjust your targets for the recovery? Well, we've already got a pretty strong year penciled in this year without any additional stimulus. We had 4.6% GDP growth. I think that most forecasts are calling for pretty strong growth. The problem is, is that we have This real unknown at the start of the year, which is which is that cove It has gotten worse and people are pulling back from from economic activity. Is that the vaccine rollout has also been disappointing. It's been about a gone about half the pace that we write having, although it's been improving, and there are provisions.
KOMO
"senior economist" Discussed on KOMO
"The siege of the U. S Capitol Wednesday may not be the end. Here's more from ABC is Eric. It's risky as terrible is Wednesday was an intelligence assessment obtained by ABC News shows the environment is right for more danger. The NYPD with its long history of terrorism, in mass gathering concerns, reported to law enforcement agencies that increased political polarization and rising domestic violent extremist rhetoric. Pose a threat for the next 12 days, leading to the inauguration here in New York. There's concern about government buildings, media headquarters and properties associated with President Trump across the country. The NYPD called for increased awareness and intelligence sharing. Aaron Carter. SKI ABC NEWS New York The U. S economy posting its first monthly job loss since the spring. The Labor Department says U S employers cut 140,000 jobs in December the first month we've lost since April. Wells Fargo Senior economist Sarah House says nearly 500,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were lost Your restaurants, hotels and really, the things that consumers have have had toe pull back on the fact that jobless rate stayed at 6.7%, the first time it hasn't dropped since April. Doesn't tell the whole story about unemployed Americans. You thought about four million more people outside of the workforce not even being counted. The economy still has nearly 10 million fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic struck in March. My camp in Washington. Here's something you don't see every day, maybe ever a seal was caught and state Route four and what Kaya come county. On Wednesday, state troopers tweeted out a picture of it slowing down the traffic state Route four runs next to Gray's River and Seal slew. So It may have been a little out of its element there. We have an ABC News update coming up next Cos time 10 28 Every day I wake up at five to give Dad his medicine every day..
All of It
Job growth crashed in December as COVID-19 surged
"In months. The Labor Department reports the economy lost jobs in December 140,000 jobs Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House, his losses are acutely felt in those industries that have been battered since the Corona virus pandemic triggered widespread closures. We saw that with the decline of almost 500,000 leisure and hospitality jobs, so start job losses at your restaurants, hotels and really, the things that consumers have have had toe pull back on.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
Where does the economy go from here?
"We are going to dispense with the president's remarks last night about changes he wants made to the virus relief. Bill that congress finally passed on monday. After months of negotiations. We are going to dispense with it with this observation. It's all fun and games and political intrigue until somebody gets hurt and people are getting hurt all over the place in this economy as we have been telling you for months and we got more evidence of that this morning courtesy of the commerce department will learn consumer spending fell nearly half a percent last month the first time. It has fallen since april thing. How long ago. That was and it same time. Personal income fell by a little bit more than a full percent. The third decline in four months. It's no mystery. Y right government aid has been keeping people afloat and that aid is running out so to get us going. Marketplace's samantha fields looks at what that is going to mean for this economy. This time of year is normally when people spend more money. Carl tannenbaum chief economist. At northern trust says the fact that personal income and consumer spending dropped in november is a bad omen. It does give a pretty good sense that households are not going into the new year in very strong answer to the urgency around. The negotiations in washington consumer spending crashed in march and april but then bounced most of the way back largely thanks to government aid back in april after the cares act. There was a huge pop in personal income. Ted rosman is an industry analyst at credit cards dot com and a lot of that did trickle down to other sectors of the economy. He says over the summer a lot of people felt like things were getting better but now maybe those unemployment checks have dried up. They've long since spent their first stimulus check. Maybe they're not able to go back to work. And people are nervous. After months of uncertainty over whether the federal government would provide more relief says tim quinlan senior economist at wells. Fargo six a long time to build up consumer confidence and not so long to disrupt it or to shake it and when people have less confidence and income there are less likely to spend their money. Carl tannenbaum northern trust says that is a bad combination spreading done by households accounts for almost seventy percent of our annual gross domestic product. Our national income. And if it's not recovering he says neither will the economy.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
McConnell rejects Dem demand for big Covid relief package, stands by push for 'highly targeted' bill
"Just heard from mitchell about the income. Cliff coming up at the end of the year right. Still though senate majority leader mitch. Mcconnell said again today there is not going to be another big corona virus. Relief bill at a congress if it happens at all. It's going to be closer what he was talking about before the election. Something near five hundred billion dollars a skinny package if you will but with unemployment still high and the virus on the rise will that skinny. Bill helped the people who need it most. No it won't bang. Adler is a senior economist at the center for american progress. He writes about this kind of thing. Welcome to the program. Thank you for having me As you just heard. Senator mcconnell said once again day He does not see the need for a large relief. Package for this economy What do you think it is very surprising to hear that given where we are in terms of the pandemic but also given what happened earlier this year. If you think about what happened at margin april and cares act and how that help out the economy. We should want more of that. Given numbers you've said Repeatedly said it on twitter the other day and you've said in a piece online Within the past week or so our economic policies are basically geared toward white men. If white men are doing fine then we get the economic policy that white men need. That is correct because if you look at the numbers you look at what happened in april. When we had the peak of unemployment general employment was at fourteen point. Seven percent white men had an unemployment rate of twelve point four percent. That's when we saw the cares act. That's where we saw all the other things and p p and a lot of Spending to help out this economy. Since then the rate for white man has dropped down now to five point eight percent. And so you can. Look at these policymakers all while things are looking good but if you look at it for other groups so for example black men are at eleven point. Five percent so black men had a similar unemployment rate that whiteman had an april. And then you also even look at what's happening with women women last month. Eight hundred sixty five thousand dropped out of the labor force that they're not even counted in unemployment and the only got half that back. But if you look only at white men with five point eight percent on perpetrate then you can say oh we only skinny bill but white men are not the economy everybody's economy and we have to focus on that. Let me ask you one more thing and And i guess it it makes sense given the state of play right now but you wrote the other day As this pandemic has hit home. Lawmakers cannot be counted on to respond to the magnitude of this crisis or any future economic crisis that is fairly bleak that we can't count on on washington to fix this economy when it so desperately needed. But that's the truth. We lost a lot of unemployment. Pete that almost fifty percent and we put in three four trillion dollars into the economy. And the thing is it worked and instead of putting more money back in continuing these things like direct checks or expanded you. Why which people that you know said eight million people. Out of poverty policymakers that on the hands and let it expire and all the way through the election. It didn't happen shocking. Pretty much everybody so of course you know we can't. We can't expect politics because in a position where he would have done it when he's should've done it. We didn't see it so we can't trust him anymore.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
The GDP report isnt the whole story
"Come on repeat after me, you have been hearing or reading it all day I know the US economy. The US economy con grew at an annual rates GRUDEN annual rate of demain fill in the blank. You know it right thirty, three percent in the third quarter. Again, that is annualized or just from July to September compared to a quarter earlier growth rate was seven point four percent which sounds great. It does and Kinda is, but it doesn't get us back to where we were or. Where we might have been without this pandemic marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer gets his going with the output gap. We've all been there. Sometimes, we just don't live up to our potential former Fed economist Claudia Psalm says it's kind of like what happened in her house this morning when her fifth grade son had to retake virtual math test the teacher knew what his potential was but and because he wanted to get done with school and play on his IPAD, he didn't put in the time and do his best work. Some says it's the same with the economy. The output gap is the difference between what the economy is actually doing versus what it could do before cove it in recent years. GDP has been growing at two percent or more, but it just means that we know what we could be, and if we're not there yet will then we've gotta do gotTa do better even with today's strong GDP number we've only made up about sixty percent of the economic ground we lost in the first half of this year according to nationwide senior economist Benares. He says, that's partly because consumers are still avoiding risk. Your consumers are still down about a third from what they normally spend overall. Certainly, most of that's focused on the service sector with people not eating out as much. Music concerts anything that would involve large groups. Dissolution Solution here is pretty simple, less virus and more economic relief from Congress. Another Relief Bill Greg Dako chief economist at Oxford Economics says a lot of consumers relied on extra federal unemployment payments that ended over the summer as these transfers slowly faded out consumer spending activity has. Called Dako says it'll be at least another year before we get back to a normal rate of economic growth without another relief package he says, it'll take even longer I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer for marketplace.
The Indicator from Planet Money
The Worker Shortage Mystery
"It is a tough time to be looking for work. We're hearing stories all over the country dozens and dozens of people competing for a single job opening there just aren't a lot of open positions right now unless you're chat Dolan, we have so many jobs open. You wouldn't believe it chat president of Midwest, staffing in Minneapolis they help companies hire workers. All over Minnesota and Chad says, he has a ton of open jobs. Let's see. So we place welders, we place machine, operation? People General Labor where how shipping and receiving we have an entry level HR role and administrative assistant role I e reading me a list of like what you're currently hiring for. Yes. Just some of the ones were curly hiring for. We have hundreds and hundreds of open job orders right now. Meaning Chad wants to hire hundreds and hundreds of people for full-time jobs with benefits. So Chad has basically the Oprah of jobs out there like you get a job, you get a jog, everybody gets a job except Chad says, he cannot find people to take these jobs. So I have been in this industry for over twenty years. Never in my career have I experienced a situation where we literally have people to work, but they won't go back to work. I mean, we have clients who saved US five people a week. If you can find them for us, we can't find them and when it first started happening chat thought I know what's going on here? What's been challenging for us our our average pay rates it's all about the Benjamins, our average pay rates for candidates. Anywhere from fourteen to eighteen dollars an hour, we weren't able to pay them enough to put them back to work. So Chad, was doing the math back in April when government was paying out in extra six hundred dollars in unemployment as part of the cares act that Congress passed back in March and Chad found was that people could actually make more money off of their unemployment benefits than they would by taking one of his jobs and. It was not just Chad's Math pro-west that led him to the conclusion a situation where I called a candidate up I explained the job to them. It was. It's exactly what they've done in their past and literally laughed at me and hung up the phone they laughed at him. That's crazy. Chad thought as long as those extra benefits earn place getting people to take these jobs is going to be a problem but when that extra. Six hundred dollars went away the end of July Chad's problem didn't. So it was not the six hundred dollars. Chad started thinking about other possibilities like maybe it's the location like maybe there just aren't a lot of people looking for jobs in Minneapolis right now but that doesn't really seem to explain the mystery either because right across town from Chad Keith rose says he's been desperately looking for work. Keep is an audio visual technician he worked. At a company setting up for Conferences Expos back in March he was furloughed for two months and then another two months and another, and since the pandemic started I am over one hundred thirty applications and I've had only eighth interviews since then and I've had no job offers. So every day Keith wakes up and checks his job alerts he sends resumes and meets with his career counselors. He even has a spreadsheet on his computer where he logs. Job He's applied to he says, the competition is overwhelming and he's just not getting many calls back at times. It's kind of a bit of an emotional beatdown I have. Just been fighting this uphill battle and. Constantly getting the form. Thank you for your application, but you're not exactly what we're looking for. At this time, we encourage you to continue to look at our career site for any further opportunities you you might be qualified for Keith's family relies on his income. His wife is high risk for contracting corona virus and cannot go back to work Keith son just graduated from college and is living at home. He says, money is getting tight, but he says that is not the only reason that he wants to go back to work for me workers having the sense of purpose I want to be in a position where I'm making a contribution to something or to someone. That's just the way, I-. hardwired I guess, and that's what I want to be doing. I don't do well sitting down and doing nothing. So on one side of town, you've got demand for Labour you've got Chad sing his all these open jobs that he needs to fill on the other side of town. You've got supply of Labor you've got Keith saying he desperately wants job and he's looking and looking and he can't find one and there are reports of this kind of situation happening all over the country right now. So what is going on? I get this question all the time that tiny shareholder. Senior economist at the economic policy. Institute my first question variety is there like some kind of worker shortage happening the answer to that is just an absolute no. Right now, there are quite literally more than eight million more unemployed people than job openings. So there's an absolute excess of workers who need jobs over and above job openings that are posted. Heidi says if there were an actual worker shortage, we would see wages going up for jobs because when employers truly can't find workers, they start offering more money for those
AP News Radio
1.2 million seek jobless aid after $600 federal check ends
"The monthly jobs report for July is due out later today many economists are expecting a disappointing monthly jobs report including Bankrate dot com's senior economist mark Hamrick while we did see some are reasonably robust hiring in the month of June with nearly five million jobs added according to labor department most economists do not expect anything like that here for the month of July in fact it probably fewer than two million and what about the unemployment rate in June I was eleven point one percent still historically high economists think the bank could slip to ten and a half percent in July even with July's expected gain barely forty percent of the jobs lost to the corona virus have been recovered surely a blur Washington
NPR's Business Story of the Day
The Coronavirus Pandemic Hurts Some Industries, Benefits Others
"Many industries are furloughing or firing workers. But some are hiring. Npr's Alina Seljuk has the story. Despite all the shutdowns and lockdowns Americans still need food and medicine and that means some companies are actually hiring at least temporarily supermarkets like Kroger and Albertsons Pharmacies Lake CVs and walgreens and retail giants like Amazon and Walmart. Not only are we not laying off? People were actually position. We're going to be hiring additional one hundred fifty thousand new associates. That's executive Dan Bartlett last week announcing a major hiring push promising to get some people into new jobs in a matter of hours. Amazon has a similar plan to hire one hundred thousand new delivery and warehouse workers in the next few weeks to keep up with a big spike in online shopping papa. John's and domino's are hiring thousands of cooks managers drivers same at meal. Kit companies like Blue Apron and grocery delivery platforms like shipped and INSTA- cart with it wants to sign on up to three hundred thousand delivery GIG workers more than doubling its contract workforce or in transportation logistics for example. Hiring is actually up seven percent a month over month from March thirteenth. Daniel Joe is a senior economist at the jobs and recruiting website glass door. He says those transportation numbers account for new hires at warehouses of all kinds including retail and new jobs are being posted by local governments and healthcare organizations basically call center workers or front desk associates. These are folks who are helping to field questions. Some of the companies that are adding new jobs including Amazon. Instant card have faced criticism from their current workers who want protective gear hazard pay and broader access to paid sick leave still. These new jobs are an option for many workers who find themselves suddenly unemployed because of Corona virus and the companies that are hiring specifically targeting. Them you can imagine not. There's an awful lot of people who have lost their normal livelihoods and are desperate to generate some income to support their family. Ruth Milkman is a professor of sociology and Labour Studies at the City University of New York. The whole point of paid sick leave is to not force workers to have to choose between their livelihood and their house or the health of their kids. But these workers are going to be put in that position. She says the jobs that are growing fast. Many of them are our leave with limited benefits and pay and of course they're risky because they involve interacting with other people while most of the country is asked to stay at home and isolate a reminder that in times of crisis some of the lowest paid jobs become essential
The Indicator from Planet Money
Investigating The Racial Unemployment Gap
"In the month of January the economy created impressive. Two hundred twenty five thousand thousand jobs and the unemployment rate was three point six percent which means that the unemployment rate stayed close to its lowest point in about fifty years. Now on this show show. We have cited this low unemployment rate before as a sign of a relatively healthy labor market. And when you break it down further it's also true that the unemployment rate has come down in recent years for every group of workers but that does not mean that the unemployment rate is the same for every group fright. The Bureau of Labor Statistics breaks all these numbers down reports on the unemployment rates for different racial and ethnic groups for white workers for example the unemployment rate is down close to three percent but for black or African American workers. The story is really different. Their unemployment rate is still six percent twice as high as the unemployment rate for white workers and this gap gap between black and white workers is known as the racial unemployment gap and that is what today's show is all about. It is also the focus of ongoing research by Ben Gadget Lori a senior economist at the Center for American progress. One of the things that I find is that the black one implement rate is twice the white unemployment rate but the key is that gap has has been consistent since January of Nineteen seventy two when the Bureau of Labor Statistics started following it since one thousand nine hundred seventy two almost five decades ago that ratio of roughly two to one one for black unemployment to white unemployment has held in fact for most of that time the ratio has been higher than two to one and this unemployment gap between white and black workers also so exists when you focus just on workers with the same educational backgrounds or when you zoom in on the same age groups or other categories for example black women have a higher unemployment rate right than white women and black workers with college. Education have a higher unemployment rate than white workers who also have a college degree. Benda argues that this gap is the result of when he calls structural racism. Says it's really important to understand. What the word structural means in this context so we think about racism we think about individual behavior someone being racist towards Schwartz someone else structural? Racism is that system is created so that people of different demographic groups end up getting further behind an outcomes so example of that is the criminal justice system so their studies showing that White person gets arrested is less likely to be incarcerated than a black person so once someone gets involved involved in the justice system when they're incarcerated once they come out they are going to have lower outcomes than anybody else if we have people who are more likely to be incarcerated. That's GonNa Create Racial gaps in outcomes like employment We think about education systems. The schools that are in certain segregated areas are going to have worse Outcomes and then you create these racial gaps without individual behavior because the system is creating these gaps Benja highlights a few trends to show that structural. Racism is what's causing causing get employment gap and it's not the result of something else. The most important trend is the sheer persistence of the gap itself through both good and bad economic times. This this includes times when the labor market has been really strong or tight tight so when economists say tight labor market they are talking about a situation where the economy is so strong and so so many people have jobs. The businesses really have to work hard to find employees. This tends to make it harder for businesses to discriminate against groups of workers because they just need eight people to do the jobs. For example. Black workers or people with disabilities and mega says a tight. Labor market can have that effect. It's a great thing. And in fact. Participation dissipation in the labor force and participation means either looking for work or finding work has gone up faster for black workers then for white workers in recent years as has the labor market has gotten tighter and yet the racial unemployment gap has stayed the same and what that suggests is that even once. Black workers are in the labor force and looking for work they still face systemic barriers to actually getting hired that white workers do not face and so one thing that we know about with African Americans. Is that a Lotta Times Times. They are the first fired and alas hired. A lot of research has shown that this is the case in a lot of cases. It's actually the first fire. That's more of a stronger effect that when there's a downturn Africa's are usually the ones that are fired I for example during the deep recession that ended now more than ten years ago the black unemployment rate went up more more than the white unemployment rate and took longer to start recovering than the white unemployment rate did and a trend that big bang says cannot be the result of individual or isolated cases of racism. It's happening on to scale across the whole economy. That's what he means by systemic or structural racism a simple way to put it is that it's racism without racists and obviously Benghazi is not saying that there are no racist in the economy. Would he's trying to say. Is that to shrink. The racial unemployment gap policies have to address the system that creates a gap in the first place
Climate Connections
EVs likely to be as cheap as conventional cars by 2025
"In twenty eighteen. There were about five million electric cars on the road globally. It sounds like a large number but with well over a billion cards worldwide. Ev's are still only a small percentage which one beard people making the switch from conventional cars is cost Ev. Prices generally remained high mainly because batteries are still expensive but cromwell senior economist. At the University of Michigan Energy Institute says that's changing. We are observing that many manufacturers the factors as well as technology companies. Innovative startups are driving. That cost lower. We expect that in the next three to five years. That battery caused will be very competitive. She says that by twenty twenty-five electric car will likely cost the same as comparable gas powered one that will make them more accessible to consumers even without financial incentives which have already brought down the price price vs in many countries so as battery technology continues to evolve more. Electric cars are likely to hit the road
Ben Shapiro
The Finance 202: Economists project Trump will win easily in 2020 — and by a bigger margin
"Trump according to The Washington Post economists in the trunk should actually went pretty easily because of the economy according to The Washington Post president trump is on a fast track to an easy reelect that is the conclusion reached by economic forecasters despite headlines from Washington that suggests from political fortunes are only pointed south as he battles encroaching impeachment inquiry and Republican defections over his handling of the Syrian crisis moody's analytics projects the present win handily next year if the economy doesn't that we stumble and in fact wrap up a greater margin in the electoral college in Israel forty two twenty seven victory he secured against Hillary Clinton twenty sixteen Danny is chief economist at moody's analytics and co author of the paper outlining his findings he said if the economy a year from now is the same as it is today or roughly so the power of incumbency is strong and from selection other very good particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out the vote is that turn out there's only one problem with that which the turnout for Democrats is going to be extraordinary it's going to be extremely high because trump gets out the vote on his own side and he definitely gets of the vote for Democrats as well as twenty eighteen demonstrated but assuming average democratic turnout which of course I don't think that's right but if you assume average democratic turnout than what you would see is president trump winning a bevy of states why a huge number of states including some states that he lost last time he would end up winning I mean it's it's pretty amazing I'm sorry economics says that if trump were like a normal Republican president like if you work twenty to one fifty five percent of the popular vote next year it's a troubling fifty five percent of the popular vote if you're buying a significant downturn in the economy Greg take on James Watson to senior economist with the former lastly quote well wide range of issues have influenced presidential elections over the last few decades in healthcare in foreign policy to taxation government spending one factor is been constant it's the economy stupid by the reckoning of that firms model three key economic indicators unemployment inflation in real disposable income growth all favor trumps reelection they'll way and negative exhaustion factor with trump that dense his support in the projection now take on what's in a knowledge economy isn't everything according to The Washington Post but their model which means on it accurately predict all but two popular vote outcomes going back to nineteen forty eight the only ones that they do not work nineteen sixty eight and nineteen seventy six and the reason is because nineteen seventy six was immediately in the aftermath of Richard Nixon stepping down in nineteen sixty eight involved the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy and LBJ dropping out of the race and all that now they are pointing to key CAP yes they could hamstring in their models accuracy at this time excludes non economic factors that a candidate's record that are vital in most elections and it pays no attention to candidates attributes such as race gender or like ability the fact that maybe centrally important twenty twenty so we're about to find out whether the hard metrics of the elections really do come down to the economy is really what we're saying here it'll be a fascinating sort of data driven question if from wins at your shows the durability of the economy is the real number one nation elections is nearly unsurpassed if from loses and that shows that the economy as a sort of my suspicion is very often a secondary concern meaning that if the economy is bad you're definitely gonna lose if you're the incumbent but if the economy is good that doesn't necessarily mean you're gonna win if you're the incumbent also obviously they say the economy tanks from stun another model some of my friend metrolyrics accurately predict every presidential Victor going back to nineteen fifty two by focusing on the effects of the economy and incumbency on the electoral college according to Donald Luskin the firm's chief investment officer the project the trouble win reelection next year with three hundred and fifty four electoral votes a margin it seems staggering on its face to get something that high you have to go back to Reagan and that may not be possible in the red world we live in now Luskin says model stakes first German Cummins when they had the advantage that was the other way for candidates seeking to hold on to a third or fourth straight term it factors in six economic indicators including oil prices personal income inflation and tax burdens but none of these models include the president's approval rating why well because they say it doesn't carry much predictive power and by the way his approval ratings are basically sort of middle of the pack when it comes to other presidents at a thousand name I remember Obama's presidential approval according to Gallup and Rasmussen was it forty one percent of this plan this presidency trump is currently forty four
UN News
How to tackle food loss and waste?
"Every year around one third of all food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted an enormous amount given the eight hundred twenty million angry people in the world food loss and waste has all kinds of consequences for economies food security and the environment and you report by the has an option in terms of reaching the goals of the minute that was Andrea Catania a senior economist at F._A._O.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
What we talk about when we talk about jobs
"We introduced you earlier. This week to a group called the Institute for Supply Management Management IFM for short literally people who do all things supply chain for a living we were talking about their manufacturing index how busy American manufacturing and factories these are not all that busy and getting less so it turns out was the macro economically troubling upshot today. It's their service sector survey. We want to talk about the non-manufacturing manufacturing side of this economy still growing but at a much slower pace than anybody had thought so to get us going on this Thursday marketplace's Marielle Sagarra has the service service sector primer accountants lawyers Baristas Uber Drivers math tutors. What are they all have in common their part of the services sector and radio reporters quarters? I'm a creator. I'm out here toiling away cranking out radio pieces but apparently I'm in the services sector to produce a good or a structure. You're right you produce service so that's the difference that's Gad Lebanon Chief Economist for North America at the Conference Board also a service sector the job if you make car parts you're in manufacturing. If you're a farmer you're in agriculture but as a rule of thumb if you don't produce a physical thing you're part of the services sector of the economy about eighty percent of American workers fall into this category it wasn't always this way one hundred years ago the majority of Workers Hello Greek culture or manufacturing and now those with Sharon significantly and that's how it usually goes Danny Bachman the US second omic forecaster at Deloitte says as a country's economy develops it tends to shift towards services one reason that manufacturing become more more productive. There's better technology and that makes a lot of manufacturing jobs obsolete. We just need fewer people to produce the same amount of manufactured goods up by the way the exact same thing happened with agriculture. Meanwhile as people who live in this developing economy get wealthier they start to demand more services like banking king in healthcare. Now the services sector is not an island when there's a downturn in manufacturing say workers an auto factory get laid off. They may be less likely to spend money on services like restaurants and travel. I'm Maryelle Sagarra for marketplace so continuing with the theme here that is in its manufacturing services services indexes Kimberly Adams story for us yesterday about what seemed like as of yesterday the possibility that we're just in for a long slow period of economic economic met that a recession might just never come. It'll just be slow but perhaps we were too hasty because maybe what's happening. Is that the slow hello is speeding up. Marketplace's Sabrina sure explains the Institute for Supply Management in their survey. They ask companies questions including just basic stuff a flight. How's business best at the moment. Eric Harrison is CEO of the Jay Renee Group an importer and wholesaler of shoes which puts him in one of the sectors actors covered by ISM's non-manufacturing index. He is worried his business is going to get hammered by the next round of tariffs so he's not investing in new technology not hiring new people as much as he normally would just trying to play closer to the best which on Portuguese were a lot of our customers are doing as well so it has kind of ripple effect. That's the story behind the numbers I assume survey of non-manufacturers was the weakest in two years a common theme and the comments businesses are worried about trade and that's been true for manufacturers for a while the big takeaway here is that it is not just them anymore. Sam Coffin is a senior economist at UBS looks as if from today's Today's data that the manufacturing weaknesses spreading into the rest of the economy take for example accommodation and food services hotels big importers of furniture furniture. That's tariff. This is Anthony Nevis. He helps run. ISM's non-manufacturing survey and there's food products that they're starting to see increases on stuff coming in from MM. China higher priced imports could seep into more of the economy. Ian Shepherdson is chief economist at Pantheon macroeconomics will probably have good to go up which retailers but it also hurts everybody else who's selling things you can see him is because people are less cash to spend on discretionary services like entertainment and leisure activity so so it seems to be scaring everyone for now. It's possible that the US economy might just be slowing down to a creep but these numbers are assigned that maybe it is worse than that in New York. I'm sure for
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia
Japan raises sales tax to 10% amid signs economy weakening
"Juliet to you thank you so much mark let's get back to a conversation with doctor Martin short senior economist fidgety research institute on the line from Tokyo and mass and I wanted to ask about the sales tax kicking in I'm just gonna redo this from Bloomberg got news report that in nineteen ninety seven a hike to five percent from three percent contributed to three quarterly contractions in less than a year and a half in twenty fourteen an increase in the tax to eight percent pulled the rug underneath consumption and prices and shrank the economy by more than seven percent so is it going to be as died this time only see the sales tax going from eight to ten percent. we older but we all hope that it won't be the case Japan has always been diving into recession after sales tax the main reason is what people really hate it because the economy is in a deflationary state long term and incomes are not going out so this is this tax hike re hits incomes of people directly plus everybody's seizing discount in this type of economy so everybody has been rushing into this house by being in the last quarter and that means that the next order will probably see minus two percent growth evening maybe even worse the question is next year how will it look I'm more optimistic on that because the government is stepping in as strongly as as consumers might be stepping out of the car yes can I ask is is a last minute buying obviously there has been we've been talking about said the impending sales tax for a while now what sort of policy statements could we say from the B. O. J. to react if we do in fact see gross contract. we shouldn't expect much from the bank of Japan but the government is stepping income Siskel site to make very very sure that this time will be different so they're handing out directly at the cashier bonuses and discounts when you pay with the money you get three to five percent back while the Citrix taxes only at two percent that going in with come pains and US support for buying cars as they give incentives for buying housing that is so all this will probably over stimulate the economy well into next year see some quite positive what about in terms of the trade front because we had that initial pact signed between promise to obey and president trump last weekend that has remove some of the threat of US tariffs on Japanese because at least for now. yes this is seen as a major victory will make three might be a little bit too much but as the major progress on the Japanese side the idea was always to have to speak transpacific partnership agreement for Japan's company step trade trading more freely exporting better now the US is back on the bilateral trade do you that is very supportive it helps the overall economy that brings crisis down somewhat on beef and other agriculture products but it makes it safer that Japanese companies in manufacturing in the automobile industry and still in west in the U. S. safely very very important for this economy and in terms of the taps what we see from the B. R. J. I know you mentioned the government stimulus there but said there has been a few signs that perhaps we could see some kind of for that stimulus coming through we've also been seeing quite a big move in the bond purchasing or bond buying program of the last six weeks what have you read into that. yes I am completely with you on that one there might be some tweaking in terms of maturity what the bank of Japan is buying but I do not expect a major step year the good data we had to date is one that one reason for that the other reason is that the focus is really on the domestic economy and that in so many complaints about the side effects negative interest rates really bad for the banking sector consumers also hated because the lifetime savings do not see any longer term income coming up so the bank of Japan will be very careful with doing anything as during the next meeting. all right just amounts and showed senior economist VDC research institute thanks as always feel so it's there on the sales tax the tankan survey the B. O. J.'s a bond buying program as well and we do have the Japanese yen trading fairly steady at the moment at one OO eight spot zero six and of course as we've been mentioning that tongue conserve a deed show a further deterioration in the outlook and sentiment for those large companies spot much better than what the market had expected with that survey rate coming in at five in the third quarter versus estimates of one Japan's Nikkei index is from a by four tenths of one percent the KOSPI is low along with the New Zealand market Israelis market slightly hi this is
Rush Limbaugh
US hiring slow but steady amid trade war and global weakness
"The August jobs report showed the economy adding one hundred and thirty thousand jobs last month with the unemployment rate holding steady at three point seven percent the bank rate senior economist mark hammer X. says the trade war with China is having a negative effect on the economy the manufacturing sector is in a downturn we saw that evidenced in numbers recently from the institute for supply management and that's echo in the week pattern for manufacturing all around the globe the problem here of course is trade disputes terrorists and global economic weakness and the administration's tough stance with China's obviously exacerbating
The World
Trump delays increase in Chinese tariffs
"First another day of reckoning in the US China trade war today was supposed to be the deadline for China to shape up if not the Trump administration would increase tariffs on more than six thousand types of Chinese imports. But President Trump is backing off. He's delayed new round of tariffs and says, quote substantial progress is being made in negotiations with China. Here's more from the world's Jason Margolis, the art of the deal again, or maybe not this time not with China says, economists, Derrick scissors, the idea that we're going to get the greatest deal ever, the greatest you'll ever is not going to pan out and it's going to blow up in his face. Meaning if Trump runs for president in two thousand twenty he'll have some explaining to do and a democratic candidate will be quoting candidate Trump in two thousand sixteen over and over again about how China's He actually said the words they're raping our country. We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, and that's what they're doing. And then. On sunday. He said we had the best relationship we've ever had China. It's very difficult to see how things have changed in the last two years or two and scissors focuses on the Chinese economy at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, he just doesn't see what the Trump administration has been able to get from the Chinese that other administrations haven't, for example, one major sticking point in US. China relations has been the forced transfer of technology where American companies hand over intellectual property in order to do business in China. Trump has said that's coming to an end, the Chinese, of course, have said, they've never course technology transfer. It's all voluntary. So them writing a law that says course, technology transfer. It doesn't do anything with the issue after issue. The Chinese are making the same old promises. He says as they have many times in the past. We have known for some mechanism as we have not had in the past. And none of those promises are gonna come to fruition. But let's say President Trump does turn out to be the master negotiator. He says he is can you turn the ship around for decades? U S China trade has worked this way. China builds it we buy it. It's hard to imagine all of this being resolved right away, economists, Katie Russ at the university of California Davis says if Trump really wanted to put pressure on China, if you want to have the quickest results, then joined TPP, the trans Pacific partnership that twelve nation trade agreement brokered by President Obama, Russ says, it would have shifted trade away from China to other countries that maybe we feel more. Close strategic alliances with but President Trump withdrew from that seventy two hours into his presidency and said the US would pursue bilateral trade agreements. Instead, of course, Trump wasn't the only one opposed to the TPP labor unions, and many Democrats worried that it could cost American jobs so back to China. Trump needs a deal a few days ago. He said talks are going very well and highlighted China's commitment to buy American corn corn, but a lot of it more than anyone thought possible. Welcome news in Illinois, the nation's second leading corn producer. I asked senior economist Mike Dougherty with the Illinois farm bureau, if he had any details on Trump's corn plan, we don't and it's being treated as well. It's possible. But we'll wait and see it protects happen. Illinois is also the nation's top soya producer, China is number one export market. But this season's export has been a bust in retaliation for Trump's tariffs last summer. China slap tariffs on US. Soybeans of that crop were about forty percent under where we normally would be at internal sales to China. Dorothy says more corn sales to China won't offset this. They don't sell much corn there. Many farmers do like Trump's overall economic policies, lower taxes fewer regulations still when it comes to trade. I asked dirty if Illinois farmers still believed in the president's message. We're not sure what exactly what that message is. What are we talking about in terms of long term payoff? I mean, we were a number one number two supplier out of the world to the Chinese market for supplying their soybeans. We could just get back to that. I think most of the farmers here would be pretty happy for the world. I'm Jason
Morning Edition
Supreme Court nominee steers clear of Trump criticism
"Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Dave Mattingly. Employers in the US added two hundred one thousand jobs last month as the nation's jobless rate held steady unemployment remained at three point nine percent. That's near an eighteen year, low hourly wages rose and are two point nine percent higher than this time a year ago. Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah house says that's significant wages are rising at the fastest pace. We've we've seen this expansion. And so I think that's a straight of of the fact that the labor market is in fact, tightening and workers are getting a little bit more and their take home pay. The job gains were spread across many industries.
Afternoon News with Tom Glasgow and Elisa Jaffe
Komo, Senior Economist and Zillow discussed on Afternoon News with Tom Glasgow and Elisa Jaffe
"Nine a Broadway actor who ripped any let Trump flag from an audience members hand says he has no regrets. Timothy hughes. Plays a passerby. The wise troll in frozen the Broadway musical and took the flag away from a man who was standing and waving it during the actor's final bows. I was incredibly surprised but anybody felt like this was an environment protest anything. Here's was asked. If he would react in the same way. If the flag supported a politician, he liked