18 Burst results for "Scott Shapiro"
The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
"Way you like, just go to twin spires dot com. Bet exact is trifecta. Hook them up in vertical wagers, whatever you want to do. You can do that at twins dot com. All right, determinedly, is I'm guessing going to be one of your horses in here because you mentioned them earlier. This is the 11th race, the gun runner stakes, $100,000, two year olds going a mile in the 16th. You now that Mike determinedly is my third horse and the triple play in the start of the road to the Kentucky Derby down in New Orleans. It also kicks off twin spires, probably my favorite promotion on there, the $100,000 Kentucky Derby prep race leaderboard competition. You've got to opt in there a little bit of a shameless plug there for twin spire, but determine the first off, I don't think there's gun runners overly strong race. Last year we saw epicenter win this race and obviously propel himself to a tremendous three year old campaign. Not sure if we have an epicenter in here, but I do think the term we use a horse definitely moving in the right direction as he tries two turns on the dirt for the first time. This is the son of Cairo prince that's really routed off two very impressive races in a row at 7 for a long, the first of those on the breeders cup undercard when he ran second to the well meant Arabian night. He got convincingly by Arabian night, but he beat the rest of the field 6 and a quarter length that day. And then he came back three weeks later, a Churchill, and I was definitely dubious of him going off at even money, but he made me look silly that day. He got a good ride from Louis dias to put him in a good floor, position and he won and ran off the screen winning by over 7 lengths. Definitely a step up in class here and trying to turn the derp for the first time as an issue, but he does have some two turn races over the turp in New York this summer. And I'm not in love with the horse's exiting the prep races, if you will, and at Churchill this year, I thought the Iroquois and the streets and both were underwhelming, hay strike and Jace's road exit them. They're going to take a lot of money. So I'm going to go with a fresh face, the number three determinedly who does a track Louis science or go to last time out. If I were to put you on the spot one more time, Scott and ask you for a horse that you could hook up in an X acto or maybe a couple of horses to throw into the trifectas would determinedly, who would those horses be? the three to one morning line favor Mike number two, Jason's road is a consideration here. There's not a ton of speeds on anonymous race. And while old alliance, who's a sprinter, trying two terms for the first time, probably will be involved early as we'll raise keen, another one stretching out the two turns for the first time. I think Jace's road should rebound from these street cents effort where he was anxious at the gate. He dropped the ride or loading. It just wasn't his day. Now I don't think he's a world beater and I think he's going to go off favored. So I don't love him from a gambling perspective, but I do think he'll run better. And then maybe raise cane can be a horse that thrives going longer. I thought he ran huge two back at keenland, breaking the maid, and then he ran on the Bowman mill at keelan and chase the wire wire winner from the inside that day. You've got some pedigree on the bottom side to be competitive on two turns, violence, jury's still out, but obviously forte, the breeders club juvenile champion is by violence as well. So maybe that will end up working out. But those are the two, I guess, Jason's road and raised cane that I would use underneath. All right, that's Scott Shapiro with this week's twin spires triple play just to recap for you in race 5 at fairgrounds on Monday. He'll go with number 8 cents you asked at 8 to one, race 7. He'll take number three banishing at 5 to one and in race 11 the gun runner stakes. He'll take number three determinedly at 7 to two. Good odds on all three of those and who knows. Maybe they drift up a little bit. Maybe they do get bet down a little bit with the first two and 8 to one 5 to one. You've got a little room for him to get back down and still get great value. Yeah, yeah, definitely, it's a card where I think there are some horses in terms of if you're playing the horizontal wagers a couple of Brad Cox runners that will be short prices that you'll want to maybe key in on, but I do think there's some opportunity. I think banishing will take more money than that 5 to one. I'm hopeful the others will stay at their morning line or maybe get a little bit of drift. You can follow Scott on Twitter at Scott shapp 34 and you can follow him through twin spires as well. He does a fantastic job in another great appearance here on this Christmas Eve edition of the program. Scott really do appreciate it. And again, happy holidays and a very happy and safe and healthy new year to you and your family. You too, Mike, it's been a pleasure to be on with you every few weeks this year for the first time really enjoy the programming and all you do and looking forward to a big 2023. I hope you and yours have a great holiday and a great new year. Thanks, buddy. Really do appreciate it. It seemed to you. Scott Shapiro here with the twins fires triple play, remember you can go to twin spires dot com and that all three of those races, there is no specific twin spires triple play bet when you go
The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
"Well, this week's twins triple play is going to be pretty good. Three races from Churchill downs, selected by Scott Shapiro, who joins me for the twins buyers, triple play. Scott, first of all, Happy Thanksgiving, my friend. And excited to take a look at these three races today. As I mentioned, all from Churchill downs and should be a wonderful afternoon to thoroughbred racing here in the bluegrass. Happy Thanksgiving Michael disappointed by your cranberry sauce take, but other than that. Enjoy joining you to chat some racing. Vile. Vile. I can't do it. But you know what's really weird? Like if somebody serves me a salad and they put some of the dried cranberries or whatever in them. I like them. I can eat them. I just can't eat cranberry sauce. Too sour for you? I just don't like it. I don't like the flavor. It's so weird. I have a lot of food issues that we could spend the next two hours talking about. But then we would never get to the twins fires triple play. And you have selected three races for our listeners here this morning and I know that they're excited to hear your analysis. We're going to kick it off with race four at Churchill downs, which is a starter allowance race, say $50,000 starter allowance and a purse of 72,006 for lungs on the main track. How did you see it, my friend? Well, I thought this two year old Philly race at 6 panels Mike had a lot of early speeds signed on the inside, the outside and in between a lot of horses that like to be prominent early at least early on in their career. And I thought number two frigid lady who makes her second start off the claim for Mike maker was going to benefit from the contentious early pace that Mike maker barn has been going very well of late. He's run first or second with 6 of his last 12 runners four of those wins. And this one really took a step forward on October 22nd at key and then with the addition of blinkers and I think with Louis sy as a board inside draw should be able to sit a nice pocket trip, maybe even a little further off when I said would be a contentious early pace and as long as she could find clear sailing when they turned for home, I think they're going to be running for a second because I think number two frigid lady looks like a very tough customer. Yeah, certainly looks like she's going to stock the pace perfectly. She has that great running style. And she never seems to run a bad race. Yeah, she's been ultra consistent. She was in the Steve asimus and barn, ran some solid races against special weight company at Churchill and Alice and Steve dropped her in for a tag. She lost the tough on a neck photo, but the addition of those blinkers really seemed to have her focus. She has enough tactical speed to not be left too far out of it, but she will still be able to relax early on, which will benefit her quite a bit. Okay, let's say she draws off and wins by 5, which she should because she's your top pick. Who's my exact a horse? It's a great question because clearly to me the next best options are horses that are probably you're going to get caught amongst those early pace setters. Now number one signs has never been in a race where she wasn't in an early battle. She's raised twice. She got caught up in a speed door on September 18th and her debut and then dropped in class, battled early at Keenan and beat. What I thought was a pretty suspect field. She's going to be the second choice. I'm going to let her beat me for a second. I like girl afraid who ran a big race on the drop in her first start here at Churchill. A little bit concerned about her inability to relax, but she does draw outside and gets Brian and dash junior. So I'll play it two 6 girl afraid for a second. If you're looking for a little more bang for your buck in that second spot, maybe number 5 cupids payday is good enough to kind of pass a lot of tiring rivals, but I do think she's a couple of. She'll really need a contentious early pace to have any chance to get second. Yeah, well, if you get the morning line odds of 5 to two over 72, you can cache a pretty decent exact, especially if you just play it one way and don't box it. You can do okay in that scenario. Exactly, exactly. I think, you know, when you like those types of types of opinions, the key you said at Mike is play it straight, you know, don't play a box or at least wait at the proper way and don't mess around using other horses kind of take advantage of that opinion and hit it hard. All right, well that's Scott Shapiro's opinion on race number four, the first leg of this week's twin spires triple play, the second leg, we're going to fast forward to race number 8, which is a really contentious maiden special weight event. 6 and a half furlongs on the main track. There are first time starters. There are lightly raced two year olds in here that this is a bit of a Rubik's Cube type of race. Who wins this one? Yeah. Yeah, it's the second of two two year old special weight event at 6 and a half for a long 6 and a half can be a kind of a tricky distance for first time starters. They can certainly win, but I do give edges generally to horses with experience and that's the case in here. I like the chance with quite a bit of number 5 car Kano a third time starter for Vicki Oliver. Vicki does a really good job, but one of the things that's not her forte is winning at first asking. So when this horse opened up extremely live on the top board back on September 24th and took money throughout going off at three to one in a 12 horse maiden specialty field at Churchill, I took note. And then the effort he put forth that day after a very slow break was also noteworthy and bounced back after that effort and ran even better got out of the gate better and got beat a half length at cumin on October 21st, but the horse that B Carcano is Luke and knight, a really good Michael McCarthy prospect.
The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
"The bull just so good and today he is remembered at Gulfstream park with the stakes race, the Benny de bole steaks, which is race number ten on their program. It is part of that mandatory payout Rainbow Six sequence, which begins in race number 6. So 6 through 11 and they're expecting more than $2 million into that pool. So it's going to be a good one and I'm going to join be joined by Brian Nadu coming up here in just a little bit. He is the analyst at Gulfstream park. He will walk through those races for us. All 6 races. He'll share his thoughts. So he'll get you ready to bet that race. Bill hirsch is going to be with me coming up at 9 20. He will remember his aunt Mary hirsch on this anniversary 84 years ago today. She became the first female trainer ever to saddle a Travers winner. She is still the only female trainer ever to do that. So that comes up at 9 20, 9 40. I go down the road to the breeders cup with owner Peter Brandt, which should be an awful lot of fun. Our three kicks off at 10 o'clock eastern with the twins fires triple play. Scott Shapiro from twin spires will be with me to provide you with three races to keep an eye on later today. Kurt Becker stroll through racing history at ten 20 and at ten 30 I ask they answer with Dale Romans, Tim wilkin, and special guest this week, Terry Finley, from West Point thoroughbreds. You won't want to miss that. That comes up to end the show at ten 30 Eastern Time. So all kinds of things still to get to. An update on our poll question here this morning. I had asked you, who is your pick to win today's four star Dave, at Saratoga, regal glory, cossa creed, or mason, and so far it looks like regal glory is running away with this one. Riga glory, the mayor taking on the boys 6 to 5 on the morning line and currently with 66% of the vote, also you can email the show. We did get one email coming in, talking about regal glory. So it looks like she's the heavy choice to win that race later today. She'll be a heavy favorite for Chad Brown and for Peter Brant, and again, Peter coming up with me at 9 40. Busy, busy program, keep those votes coming. I'll update that later in the program as well. I'm back with our number two of the equine forum right after I paused ten seconds for station identification. This is
The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
"I don't know who the gentleman is, but he has a thing where he gives out like a triple play and I'm walking the streets of Saratoga, waiting for this plate. I get to my room, I'm showering the play comes up. I get a pizza delivery menu, write it on there, carry that thing all the way to the track. I write it in my form, the second race, the gentleman gives the 5 to three in the second race Saturday. And I seen the horse shaking his head a little bit in the warmup. I don't know what I was thinking. What I was doing, I was waiting for that plan. I was waiting for something magnificent to happen on that trip. I didn't bet a quarter and I hope you can help me with the gentleman who comes on Saturday because I want to give him his props, but the horse paid $45 and sure enough it came 5 three two in the trifecta page 7 50 for a dollar. I really don't know what I'm doing in this business because I love calling. I love being a fan, but I basically I basically just can not do anything right. Just I'm just fed up with it. But I hope I call her behind cash on that. And maybe you can give me the name of that gentleman. All right, so we're going to grab that appreciate your call Vince. And yeah. The twin spires triple prey is part of the it's part of the equine forum every Saturday and there are several people that do it. I know James Scully has done it in the past. I think Joe Christophe is the gentleman who gave out the play this past Saturday. So James, I know that you speak with Joe regularly, please let him know that one of our listeners was paying attention and his very happy to have gotten that. But you see Joe Christopher regularly doing the television hosting and handicapping at Churchill downs and then in the winter time down at the fairground. So if you wanted to put a name to a face, that's who it is and if you're a fan of Churchill or fairgrounds, you've seen them pretty much every day that they have live racing. I'm guessing Joe will be doing the racing a week from Saturday at Churchill two. That's correct. Yes, Joe, the host of the Churchill down Today Show and the fairgrounds show, like you said. And he and Scott Shapiro Scott Shapiro does the Triple Crown show as well. They enhance and is made appearances. He may be on this Saturday. And myself, you know, so far and I'm going to be working in the paddock next Saturday at Churchill for that million cards. I'll definitely see Joe and heck, I'll text him or I was just texting him right now when you said it was Joe. So I'll let him know and yeah, thanks to Vince, keep your head up. That's all that's my one piece of advice. Step away from it a little bit and just like, you know, sort of gather yourself and, you know, just, you know, I think when I'm in a stuck in a losing streak, Bobby, you know, I mean, you just have to like, I think sometimes just step away from it a little bit and then come back with a disciplined approach and if you got to cut down on the amount your wagering or whatever, you know, so be it. But, you know, perhaps try to pick your spots more. And like I said, you know, maintain your confidence because one thing about the betting on horses is that there's going to be ups and downs. And you better be prepared for both. And you know, it's like people always say, you know, you can't get two up when you win and you can't get too down when you lose. Let's take one more call before we get our first break, Paul in Connecticut. You've got Bobby and James on the Bruce net dot com call in show. Bobby and James, this week's controversial call pertains to the thoroughbred idea foundation's publication today regarding I believe it was a pick for pick 5 where horses were being bent on well after an Ellis park part of that sequence one minute and 41 seconds was the approximate time and they were still taking bets after that and Ira had to delay payouts and I don't know if people are in general reading this information, but I do. And I'm appalled at this. And I emailed the guy who sent it out and I'm not going to get into names. But to my knowledge base and I'm coming a little bit clear on my background. I'm really not my background as a business guy, okay? And I work two summers three summers all the way to 9 summers in Saratoga and the mutuals department in supervised clerks and I saw everything that went on more than the average guy because I was trained to observe. And at one point there were guys fired for it, I believe, not appropriately posting entries on the tote board under one of the tech companies. But this article exposed another example of where a novice was hitting the button to turn the machines down and it gets into technology a little bit, but I don't think the average person should ignore this because we're not talking about conspiracy and past post late money due to the flows of data. This is a blatant mistake that costs people money and may have aided people and I wanted to know number one were you aware of it. I'll stay on the line for that point. I was not aware of it. I wasn't either. Okay. Well, here's why I'm bringing this up because the fellow that writes this, I have an utmost amount of respect for and you might have heard of the entity and I won't say his name. But I went at it with him at one point about the ability to understand and I brought this up with you guys too rebates and I understand how rebates are in terms of I know people at various levels I can get the data and then I could run them against the track take. And I went at it with this guy and said, look it. There is a degree to which you have to do your own homework and understand this stuff. And he does agree. But we went at it a little bit, but I have the utmost respect and I sent him a note today and I said, this needs to get out. And you guys have a tough job because you're in this business and I'm on the periphery and I bet almost every day. But this is inexcusable in this better be corrected. This is not a conspiracy. It's flat out incompetence. And I think people need to be aware of this. That's all I have to say. Okay. Thank you. Appreciate your call, Paul, and for those of you who want to learn more about what Paul is talking about or what the thoroughbred idea foundation is and what they're reporting on. You can go to their website, which is racing, think tank dot com. We had pat Cummings from thoroughbred idea foundation on a few weeks ago and to put it very concisely what they do is they are looking out for the betters. And which is something that betters have not had to my knowledge for the most part in our lifetimes in racing. I know there was a horse players across North America, Hannah, for a few years that did some good things, but they kind of went away, but the thoroughbred idea foundation is kind of a watchdog on behalf of the betters and it's an interesting read to find out exactly what Paul's talking
Mark Levin
What Is the Poisition of a Trump Supporter on Russia & Ukraine?
"So what is the position of a Trump supporter when it comes to Russia and Ukraine I said a Trump supporter not a Rand Paul supporter Not a J D Vance supporter A Trump supporter General Keith Kellogg who you've known you've seen him on life liberty and Levin and other programs And Fred flights Fred flights who served in the National Security Council under president Trump former CIA solid as a rock They penned a piece that is they wrote a piece and they said the following As former Trump administration national security officials who deeply believe in an America first approach to U.S. national security policy we've been on television almost every day discussing Russian president Vladimir Putin's brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine You can see how distinct this is From Rand Paul and JD Vance we have stated with urgency that the U.S. must support Ukraine with all the weaponry it needs to defend itself against Russia's completely unjustifiable invasion We have saluted the bold and heroic leadership of Ukrainian president Vladimir zelensky We have also repeatedly denounced Moscow's criticism of the zelensky as well as Putin's nonsensical claim that Russia invaded to fight Nazis Some have recently misrepresented the American first movement concerning the war in Ukraine and Putin For example in a Sunday Wall Street Journal op-ed Jeffrey Scott Shapiro alleged that the movement has taken a dangerous turn Claiming lead American firsters are parroting the Kremlin's narrative on the war in Ukraine And mistaken Putin for a strong nationalist leader like president Donald J Trump This is pure nonsense
The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"The rest of the team to meet <Speech_Telephony_Male> and of course <Speech_Telephony_Male> a Churchill <Speech_Telephony_Male> over the turf courses <Speech_Telephony_Male> is ready <Speech_Telephony_Male> to rock and roll <Speech_Telephony_Male> and expect <Speech_Telephony_Male> to just <Speech_Telephony_Male> awesome field sizes. <Speech_Telephony_Male> So feel very fortunate <Speech_Telephony_Male> that <Speech_Telephony_Male> racing is <SpeakerChange> doing as <Speech_Telephony_Male> well as it is right now in <Speech_Male> the bluegrass. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> How did your keelan opening <Silence> weekend go betting <Speech_Male> wise? <Speech_Telephony_Male> <Speech_Telephony_Male> Negative, negative. <Speech_Telephony_Male> <Speech_Telephony_Male> I didn't really get <Speech_Telephony_Male> into involved on <Speech_Telephony_Male> Friday. <Speech_Telephony_Male> Saturday <Speech_Telephony_Male> was a little <Speech_Telephony_Male> too chalky to do <Speech_Telephony_Male> too well unless you really <Speech_Telephony_Male> centered year ago <Speech_Telephony_Male> approach <Speech_Telephony_Male> and Sunday <Speech_Telephony_Male> <Speech_Telephony_Male> very frustrating <Speech_Telephony_Male> be <Speech_Telephony_Male> in the <Speech_Telephony_Male> 7th or 6th <Speech_Telephony_Male> there was I needed a <Speech_Telephony_Male> Tom Amos who was <Speech_Telephony_Male> the 6th that was like <Speech_Telephony_Male> 26 <Speech_Telephony_Male> to one and got run <Speech_Telephony_Male> down by that Fletcher <Speech_Telephony_Male> madam pie, not <Silence> that pie, but <Speech_Telephony_Male> yeah, <Speech_Telephony_Male> that was a tough one. <Speech_Telephony_Male> So that <Speech_Telephony_Male> cost me <Speech_Telephony_Male> the horizontal. <SpeakerChange> So <Speech_Male> that would have been good, but <Speech_Telephony_Male> <Speech_Telephony_Male> looking forward to getting back <Speech_Telephony_Male> at it. And <Speech_Male> yeah, just a <Speech_Telephony_Male> great time of the <SpeakerChange> year for racing <Speech_Telephony_Male> here in Kentucky. <Speech_Male> Scott Shapiro <Speech_Male> our guest on the program always <Speech_Male> good to catch up with you, pal <Speech_Male> and we'll talk to you guys <Speech_Male> right after this quick timeout. <Speech_Male> It's the Jason beam <Speech_Male> horse racing podcast <Speech_Male> brought to you <SpeakerChange> by twin <Music> <Advertisement> spires. <Music> <Advertisement> <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> This is <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> the Jason beam <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> horse racing podcast <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> brought to you by twin <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> spires. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> All <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> right, big thanks to <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> Scott Shapiro for joining <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> us here on the program. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> Appreciate <Speech_Male> talking to shap cap <Speech_Male> always. Good man. <Silence> Scott Shapiro, <Speech_Male> good man. <Speech_Male> And <Speech_Male> fun radio <Speech_Male> guest. <Speech_Male> We will be back tomorrow <Speech_Male> to preview the weekend. <Speech_Male> We'll talk <Speech_Male> some bedding <Speech_Male> stuff and <Silence> I'm <SpeakerChange> going to, <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> I'm going to cheer up. <Speech_Male> I'm going to pout today. <Speech_Male> I'm giving myself today <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> to pout. <Speech_Male> So you guys had to <Speech_Male> pay the price. <Speech_Male> And listen to me <Speech_Male> pout about <Speech_Male> grant's pass. <Speech_Male> But <Speech_Male> we will <Speech_Male> move on. We will <Speech_Male> move forward. <Speech_Male> It's what we do as <Speech_Male> humans we're resilient. <Speech_Male> I was talking to somebody about <Speech_Male> that recently. <Silence> <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> I feel like whatever's <Silence> <Advertisement> thrown in front of us, <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> yes, their obstacles, <Speech_Male> yes, they stink and all <Speech_Male> that, but <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> we can adapt. <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> 'cause I'm always <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> scared about, you know, <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> if I remember out of <Speech_Male> racing, like, <SpeakerChange> what on earth would <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> I do? I don't have any other <Speech_Male> skills. <Speech_Male> And <Speech_Male> then you realize like, no, <Silence> you figure something <Speech_Male> out. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> So anyways, <Speech_Male> like I said, <Speech_Male> I'm going to go pound. I want to <Speech_Male> be sad for a minute. <Speech_Male> And <Speech_Male> we will be back tomorrow <Speech_Male> and I'm going to turn my <Speech_Male> frown <Speech_Male> mostly upside down. <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> But I hope you guys have a <Speech_Male> great Wednesday. <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> How about any <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> such a downer? <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> We will <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> see you guys <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> back tomorrow. <SpeakerChange> Everybody have a <Music> great rest of your day.
The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"It's a good place to train horses and the program down there is good. You get the mild and Asian star, the mile and three 16th Louisiana Derby. So a little bit more of a true test for what's to come hopefully on the first Saturday in May and Steve admins and talked about that a lot. The myelin three 16 is the real test. You know, especially that first run into the first turn, it's just more like the Derby than anything else that you're going to have. So I think it turned out to be right. I think it could be a trend that these things will bounce around a little year to year, but I think overall the fairgrounds Kentucky Derby prep races are really in a good spot right now. Xander's effort, I also thought it was saying too, but apparently it's Ann dawn, but we'll go with sand on. Well, yeah. I've been saying today and then the whole thing. Yeah, me too. J priven on insect oil down plug. Last week was calling it zandy and he's usually pretty on point with that stuff and then Kurt Becker called it that too. So I think I'm going to stick with that. I'm a big believer. I'm a true believer and obviously it affects me, so I'm biased, but every horse is paper should have a phonetic spelling of the name on it. Like when you file the papers like that way, there's never a question on this kind of thing. Remember the Knicks go for a while? I remember Ed correcting me. You had to rosa correcting me telling me it was Koenig go and I was like, really? Yeah. And this is like, as a 5 year old, I had never heard of before. How'd that age it? And I started saying it and it turned out being wrong. It's one thing to say, nicks go and be wrong because that's the obvious. You're going out of your way to say Knicks. And then it's wrong. I was like, oh man. But what do you do when you when you have a question? I call, I call the trainer or usually the trainer just because they're usually more accessible than the owner unless I know the owner. So Kelsey Danner had a horse on, God, I guess it was Florida cup day. And just went right to her and said, hey, how do you say this? She told me it was far different than how pet had said it in the first race. And so I was like, well, I'm going with her. She trains the horse. And if she's wrong, then so be it and I'll deal with it. Emmanuel was, you know, the first race that he said, E man, well, I'm not trying to pick on Pete here, but there's those two examples. Pete said he Manuel, which I knew it could have been that, and he had heard it from Acacia. And so like, you know, it's a first time start, you don't know, but then the connection's called Pete, and they're like, dude, it's a biblical name. And so I looked up everything I could find before that horse ran at Tampa and it was always Emanuel. Emmanuel. Emmanuel. And then Kirk called me manual. So, you know, I just don't know. Like I said, I would be nice if we had a phonetic spelling, just because sometimes the connections want it different than the actual, you know, sometimes they spell the name wrong or American Ferro. And it'd be nice if there was a pronunciation. You mentioned white barrio who, to me, I saw you bumped him up, I think it's a third in your Derby top ten, and I feel like there's a little bit of recency bias that goes on in this kind of stuff because, you know, everybody's so hot on what happened this weekend, but I guess that's not true because epicenter is still a top many people's list. But to me, why to borrow and Simon I are going to be the two big prep kind of forgotten horses or more dismissed horses I would think. And why do barrio to me smells like wise guy horse in three weeks? Yeah, I mean, I think what's I don't know what he beat down there. I kind of thought it was a little bit better. You've got simplification, obviously. We'll see in due time and the Lexington will try to win that ticket in the Derby, I think, for Kelly breed. But what I like most about why to barrio and I think I have them higher than most people, if he becomes a wise guy, that's a little bit of a knock for me. I would want to get a price, but I don't know if he's good enough to win, but what I really noticed about him is he's got kind of that right running style where he creates his own trip, which is so important. We've seen it in the Derby before. These horses that can find that tactical spot right off the pace really have a distinct advantage, you know, they don't have to worry about the kickbacks of traffic and whatnot. Any kind of feels like that kind of horse. Now obviously the post will matter a ton and it remains to be seen how much other speed we lost a couple of speed horses. Big ones. On Saturday with bum me out, not any of them in particular, but I was just kind of open, it looked for a little while, like we might have an old school chaotic early half mile and I don't, you know, I think it'll be honest still, but I don't think it'll be chaotic. But I think Tyler gaff Leone, nobody rides Churchill better now and him and I just think he's the kind of horse that will get the right trip and his thorough graph numbers really they fit. You know, he ran, he ran a one in the Florida Derby, I believe. And that puts them right there. And if he can take a step forward or even run that race, he might, you know, he might be, he might be a good horse to use underneath. But I would need the right price. And I was kind of hoping it might get overlooked. It sounds like you think the option. Well, I just think people kind of default to that logical 5th, 6, 7th type horse that ends up starting to get steam and obviously that'll the steam part of things intensify once everybody gets up there and things start getting a little bit. Goofy, as far as the pace, one of the things that's always so interesting to me in The Kentucky Derby is, of course, this is just dirt horse racing in general, but so often stalkers or horses that can kind of be close up are, you know, they end up winning because it's usually just a better preferred trip. But what happens in the Derby with 1920 horses, you get 6 horses who are used to sitting third or second or fourth and now a couple of those are going to be 8th 9th or tenth early on, which is going to be a much different experience for them because there's only one horse that can be third early on and there's only one that can be fourth early on and it just seems that every year there's one of those who in fields of 6 and 7 sits third all the time, but in a field of 20 with some decent speed is just not. And those are the ones that trip, I guess, is the one I'm always kind of suspect on just because I don't think getting that trip is quite as easy as it is, maybe in these smaller field preps. No, absolutely. I mean, you know, you think of whether it's the gate break, you could think of a horse like rock your world last year that was completely that's extreme of what you're talking about. But then there's horses. I mean, that's my question about both messier and taifa. It's like, you know, they want that trip, right? I mean, ideally, they both probably want to sit right off it, maybe ty book can come from a little further like he did in the sanity Derby. And messier could probably go to the front if it worked out that way. But they've been in fields that are for the most part like a quarter of the size of this. So it's an interesting dynamic and obviously the break plays a total role and it's always funny. The Derby happens so quick with so many horses and you go back and I find myself doing it years later or the race that just happened to be like, what happened to him? Oh yeah, it never didn't get out of the gate and then those horses get kicked back that they're not used to and obviously they don't usually run well when they're not in that spot that they're used to. You don't really see very many horses that are used to like you're saying used to sit second or third, right? They don't get that trip. They don't usually run that well. No, yeah. It was an improbable. There's a few that I'm trying to think of that kind of, for examples that I should go back and look that up and actually do some research instead of just thinking off the top of my head..
The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"He's a horse player in analyst handicap or TV guy with us at twins in Churchill downs. The road to The Kentucky Derby continues on and we're happy to welcome in Scott Shapiro shap cap, how are you buddy? I'm doing well. Beamer, good to be back. We had our short regular stint for a long time, but good to be back again to chat a little longer with you. Yeah, absolutely. I saw on, you know, I have a very small Facebook. It's only close friends and family, and I saw in years that you were you were doing some exotic traveling shop. Yeah, it's been a it was a good run. I got to go to New Orleans, came back for a day and then one of my real good friends got married in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Oh, wow. So I got to attend Puerto Rico. I got to go to Puerto Rico for the first time. The first time in ages that I truly was like, it was like a true vacation. You know, it wasn't. Anything to do with going to see, you know, going to see races or sports involved. I mean, it was a true, I watched some races on Saturday, but it was a true break. I had to see a lot of friends that I hadn't seen in a while. It was awesome. It was great. It took me a little while to recover. I definitely expanded hours or changed hours. Maybe went to bed when I would get up early and get up on an early day, a couple of times, but it was great. Good to be back, super exciting time of the year. From all perspectives, but most importantly here in Louisville, as we approach The Kentucky Derby, you can kind of I think I could feel in the air just because it's me. I know the feeling now, but I got to go to the I was up at the track from the backside today for the first time this spring slash, I guess it's spring. Yeah, it's all out spring. It doesn't feel too much like it here whether whatever, but yeah, no, it was a good trip and I'm really really excited for what's to come. I know that our job here is to promote horse racey, but I do promote getting away for when you have a vacation time. Because so many of us, I mean, God, I mean, the number of vacations of mind that have centered around racetracks are extreme, but I've learned the last couple of years, like when I take my vacation in September, I turn off, I delete the two inspires app, you know, not that you guys should ever do that. But I don't go on Twitter. I don't do anything. In my vacation always coincides with Kentucky downs. I've truly have not seen a Kentucky downs race in like three years. I know it's great. I have to go back and watch them after the fact, but I do think it's important to get that separation and like a lot of jobs, I guess, but you know, it's very much more lifestyle than a 9 to 5 kind of thing. And so I do think you need that break from one to one. Especially for you guys because you're leading into what is a pretty intense next few weeks. Yeah, weeks and then months and we've moved up to 5 day race weeks most of the spring meat. So it doesn't really even stop after the Derby. It picks right up into a busy time of the year nonetheless, obviously the Derby, the busiest. But I totally am on board with you. I used to, you know, between my last couple of git, before I worked in racing, probably talked about in the jury before I was in the music world. That would be the same thing. It's like, you know, I would spend all my vacation time going to see other concerts and stuff. And we're watching sports and racing and then the now I got into this industry very fortunately and it's the same thing and this vacation really knocked into my head here. You know, I got to take at least part of my vacation time and I'm alive each year to like go to a beach or go to somewhere where you can and there's only so many times people like you and myself can do that for you. It's around the Kentucky downs time. There's a couple of times for me, but I couldn't agree more. It just seemed very important and cleansed my mind and like you said at the right time because it's going to be a busy time of the year. It's my favorite time of the year and why I love doing this, but it's still intend to time. For horse players too, right? I remember everybody used to win Los Al started with the thoroughbred meat. I'd see guys like, okay, I'm taking a break, the Los altos San Anita comes back. And then I of course they'd be fired at Los Al that weekend, but you know, I think the idea is right there. And no knock on Los out. Shout out to shout out Jose Contreras and company. But anyways, the other thing chapel, before we talk some racing stuff, I want to talk a little bit of sports stuff, a master's weekend, big prep day and racing baseball opening. The top 5 sports weekend of the year for you? The one that just passed? Yeah. I mean, but it is only it because of the math. It's like, for me, the other, I really gotten down to the point where I only follow a couple of sports. It's weird and it's not the ones outside of the NFL that I would have thought, but you know, I'm so into golf and the masters is just such a great event. I could watch these guys play on that course 300 straight day, you know, if I was allowed to just, it's so unique, it's so pristine out there, just here in the, all the cliches, the chirping, seeing the flowers and whatnot. It's just such a true test and a unique test that it's so great. And then I don't really get to watch the next two majors with the same intent. I mean, I'm working through all of them always. When you're at the track, you know, I'm following it on my phone and watching a little, but yeah, so it's up there for sure. And it's up there only though for me because of the masters, but it just kind of feels like the beginning of spring. You get the final four, which kind of feels like to me, even though on the calendar, it's already spring. It kind of feels like the end of the winter. And then the master feels like the start of spring and then I know when it's over, it's very time kind of thinking. So I do love feel and I do love the event. I had never heard of I'm a very casual golf fan. It's funny, I'm the same as you. I feel like I now have a couple sports. We talked one time about kind of both falling out of not out of love, but away from baseball. I feel like I've gotten the last year I followed a little more close than I picked this year. I'm already going to follow it a little more closely, but hockey hockey's become my other sport from aside from horse racing, and it's kind of funny how I'm sure that ebbs and flows for a lot of people, but I'm talking about golf. I had never even heard of Scottie scheffler until like two weeks ago when he was apparently the number one golfer in the world..
The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"The shap cap, we'll talk some Derby trail oaks, trails, a little bit about the masters, a little bit about what's been going on with shaft. We don't get to catch up with shap as often. And like I said, I think I'll what I'll try to do with those guys and the jury that's kind of no longer a jury. You know, bring Scott and James in on a semi regular basis, you know, every couple of months or something like that because it is good to check in with those guys and they're part of the home team. And I like to talk with them as we as we do. I just not that long ago got some bad news about the grants passed downs is not going to be opening this year. So I am sitting here in my apartment sad about that. It's a bummer. There had been a chance that they were not going to, so what happened? The real real long story short of this is instant racing historical horse race whenever you want to call it is legal in Oregon. It was passed back and I think 2013 or 2014. It was right around when I left Portland Meadows. And Portland Meadows had it, but they never really advertised it was weird. Thought that things were. But whatever, it was legalized. And in Oregon, you can't have non tribal casinos, but the HHR were enough like para mutual games, and they were para mutual, which is how, you know, that's the reason they have them in a lot of states is because they are para mutual. So when grant's pass became the commercial meat Travis boursin, who we've had on this program before, the founder and president of Dutch Bros coffee and president owner guy of TMB racing, which was grant's pass downs. He built this very nice lavish gaming Emporium restaurant called the flying lark named after flying lark who was one of the most famous horses in Oregon. And Oregon history. Everything was kind of ready to go. Obviously the machines were going to kind of subsidize racing and the purses were going to grow and everything was going to grow. And the governor of Oregon basically, the fact I'm trying to think if I still have the title of the article because it was a doozy. Here's the here's the title of the oregonian article. Oregon racing commission, under pressure from governor moves to block grant's pass gambling center. The commission members made their vote under the threat of removal from their position by governor Kate Brown. And so I do not want to get political on this show and I won't. But governor brown's decision in that matter. And obviously there's things at play and there's other groups at play and all that kind of stuff. But essentially, she said she wanted to side with the objectors that were saying that these new machines were not para mutual or were not, they were too indicative of a slot machine or whatever. And so that kind of killed the flying lark. Travis had said that he was going to individually personally finance this year's meat in order to keep things going while they appeal. But with the uncertainty of that and obviously the long-term uncertainty being massively uncertain, they were just not getting the stall applications that they would need. I think they said they had a 120 horses show up here and obviously the meat starts in less than a month and even though a lot of people had said they were going to come, they just, it wasn't going to happen and so they were not going to have enough horses and I think at some point it just became untenable for Travis to continue to pour money into the thing when the meat was not going to be very good and happened because of the uncertainty. Obviously if the machines were there and the purses were there, the entries would have been fine. Entries were good last year. I mean, I feel like we offer decent sized fields. And so talk to my boss a little bit a little while ago and he gave me the bad news and I'm bummed about it. I was there for two seasons. 2020 and 2021, the four seasons, like four meats, but two years. And my contract was for three years. And so this would have been my last year under contract. Now whether or not I would have gone back or not, who knows, but it was really a fun place for me to go. My ex-girlfriend Victoria, who lives down in that area, I stayed with her every season. We broke up on good terms. It was just because I was moving and leaving the northwest all the time. But it was so great to get to spend time with her every spring and fall, you know, we'd cook dinner, she had this great garden. It was just very nice. Take walks and just live a good clean life down there. And close to my mom up there so I could go home a couple of times during the spring and the fall. And the racing was fun. It was a challenge to call because it's different. It's a bowl ring and I just know so many of those horsemen for my years of Portland Meadows and I feel really bad for them. Obviously, you know, finding a new place to compete. There are, I would think a lot of them will go to emerald downs. I would think some will go to the California fairs. I think some will go to Arizona downs and I think some will close up shop. Every time we lose a track, there's going to be some people that close up shop, because moving is moving your life and your business is not for everybody. And it's not tenable for a lot of people. And yeah, I think I saw some potential in Grants Pass downs if everything kind of would have gone right that it was going to really kind of find its place as a good small nighttime circuit. And I think we did that. We had to handle growth tremendously. Not anything huge, but sizable differences the last couple of years and worked with some great people there. My buddy tag, who was the marketing guy, just a great guy, Randy, my boss was awesome, rod, who was the guy that hired.
The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"Many times. But I've never gotten my own tree. I thought this would be a good time to do that. I'm very proud of myself. I've been here two weeks, two and a half weeks. My apartment is spotless. I've been cleaning every day. I've learned as I've gotten older. If you just clean a little bit every day, it's a lot easier and less intimidating than, you know, leaving a mess and then getting to it down the road. There's a lot of you that are probably out there thinking, well, yeah, dipstick. We learned that when we were ten. I did okay. Figuring it out. Trying to be coming an adult. I feel like I really would love to have like my 20s and 30s to do over again with what I know now, but I realize that's not how the world works. So I'm just trying to be a better 41 year old in all avenues of my life, which I think is all we can all do, right? We just want to get a little better each day. Looking forward to welcoming our buddy Scott Shapiro on the shop captain normally joins us on Fridays, but he had he gave out a nice pick 6 score to Churchill on closing day. I thought we'd talk about that. We'll talk a little bit about the Churchill final weekend. We'll talk a little bit about what's coming up. In terms of, you know, for shap, obviously a public handicapper that does stuff year round. He now has new circuits coming up. I know years past he's done Oak Lawn and I think Gulfstream, obviously he was in southern Cal guy for a lot of years. We'll find out what's on his menu. For that, a lot of the big weekend race has been drawn. I saw Gulfstream had. I think a 115 entries over an 11 race card for an opening day. A 115 entries 11 races. This is per Mike Welsh, the drf, three dirt race is four to P to four turf, including the two year old steaks. I was a little surprised because of the to pet a centric racing we've had there lately, I guess I was under the assumption that maybe that was kind of like mostly for, you know, when. There was a braces for the turf that were rained off or for that kind of two month period where they weren't using the turf trying to get it kind of back and ready. I didn't realize it was going to be and maybe it won't be. Maybe this is just a start, but I guess I didn't realize it was going to be such a an integral part of the championship meat. I thought it was kind of more of a, an addition or afterthought, you know, I think it's a safety net, so to speak of keeping grass racist together if they got washed off stuff like that, which I know, they don't get a ton of rain in the winter time down there. They'll get some. I was asking Margot my boss at Tampa about that, like, you know, how many days do we get rain here? Because every day that I've been here, raid a little bit one night, but every day I've been here, it's just like, it's kind of the same. It's kind of cool in the morning and then it's like 72 in the afternoon. It's perfect. And she was like, yeah, you know, we'll get a handful. 5% I think she said was her guess of sloppy days or something like that. But I probably just jinxed it now. We'll have a bunch. We got a really good turf sprint feature today, Wednesday or we start our second week. It's a optional claim of 75,000, but the critical ways in there who's a big favorite. And big favorites have not fared well early here at Tampa I swear to the odds on favorites have been getting beat. They're not running bad per se. They're just getting beat. But the critical way comes in with three straight wins, one couple stakes at Monmouth turf sprinting, won the parks dash as a short favorite as grade three. You know, won the turf dash here, Tampa last year on actually it wasn't same if Davis week. Or maybe it was. Third and the grade three shaker town, which are great to shake. You know, I always say the turf sprints as a whole. There's not outside of breeders cup day and I guess maybe like the diaper. There really isn't a lot of like, you know, 200, $250,000 plus grade one, grade two type races. A lot of these hundred that are listed or hundred that are grade threes. They end up with some of the top horses in those divisions. So really curious to see what the critical way does. I had a Tampa this afternoon. In addition to Scott joining us today, I thought for tomorrow for horse player Thursday. A couple weeks ago, we did kind of an exercise of talking about a pick 5. We've done that a few times, I guess. But what I thought would be an interesting exercise to do tomorrow is I was looking at Oakland's opening day races and I kind of purposely for the purpose of the exercise picked a horse I race. Why the third race you might ask? And I said, well, because I thought it was the race where I had I mean, I don't like love this horse. I just thought he has a chance to win. But for the purposes of the exercise, we're going to say love this horse. Because it's the first day of the meat and there was one horse that I do kind of love it to the fourth and that'll be part of the conversation too. But he's I think I'll get to it tomorrow. I think it's just a heinous morning lot. And so he's 20 to one on it and I don't think he's going to be 20 to one in the race, but we'll get to that. But what I wanted to, the reason I thought the third race would be interesting in the exercise that I wanted to discuss is more in the bet selection process of things. You know, we often a lot of people start with a sequence as opposed to a horse. And I shouldn't talk too much about this, but I want to give at least a primer of what I'm thinking. I'm going to play the late pick 5. They don't have an opinion yet. They just know they want to play that sequence. And you know, to each their own, and that's fine, honestly. It's a good sequence. Generally, you just, whatever. A lot of people go into I'm gonna play leafy four with a budget of X I don't like that as much because I do think each sequence deserves less or more attention based on your opinions based on what it's giving.
The Sharp 600
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Sharp 600
"Feel all warm and fuzzy inside because it was such a simple as always taking the packers in the chiefs two teams that neither covered last week. We would all be millionaires but however there is huge casinos in vegas. So we're going to look at some bats that make us uncomfortable and scott for me. I feel really gross. Out of this. And i'm gonna give this and eighty out of one hundred on uncomfortable scale and i'm gonna take the chicago. Bears laying to at home taken on the bengals and the line started at four. And i've seen some threes and ituna half and i saw it before this podcast and with this line continuing to go down. I'm actually gonna look and see if it continues to go down even more. But i'll lock myself in the bears minus two and this is strictly a principal. Bet because the bengals are coming off a big win and i'm getting a home team at less than a field goal and they are also coming off a double digit loss. Do you know anyone who's sitting there saying you know what i can't wait to do. Run to the window and bet. The bears boyd did that game against the rare. Rams made me feel all good. No i feel terrible with indie. Donen his revenge game. I the bengals go there. But i'm going to go from a value standpoint and say you know what the bengals are on the road. They're riding high perception of these two teams completely. Different in remember. I believe the bears were a playoff team last year. And the bengals won the bottom teams so there is still some regression to the mean for both of them. I think while the bengals are a team that could ascend. I'm gonna take the value on a home team. It less the field goal uncomfortably. Give me the bears minus two. What about you scott data. Andy dalton revenge angle. What's more comfortable than that rob. Not maybe not as comfortable because this team did win in opening week but it's more about playing against the team that looked was in your sexy teams to start the year..
The Sharp 600
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Sharp 600
"Parlay pays out minus one. Oh four what about you will. It's interesting we did not talk about this beforehand. And i have a fourteen parlor. That's gonna pay about one seventy. I believe when. I checked it last night but it has the three teams that you have. I think the browns playing the texans. I think this could be a blow out regardless of whether it's a blow out or not. I tried to see the browns. Losing is over six to one favorites. Same with the packers talked about them bouncing back in a big way on monday night after absolutely not showing up in week one the steelers. You made all the real good points. The raiders off the big win they had to go to overtime short rest travelling cross country. Not real excited as we talk about lane points with the steelers especially more than three or four. But i think they find a way to win this one even if they let up a little bit off the big road win in buffalo. I'm gonna fourth one in there. Though i'm gonna take the broncos minus two seventy five deep this off a little bit you've got urban meyer seemingly maybe one out before before the second week of the season. That team seems like iraq. They thought maybe they were building. Something bringing in trevor lawrence travis. Cdn obviously going down but it seems like it's a train wreck i don't know if they're put a play hard for urban. Meyer and i think the broncos are a team that might play a lot of close games. But i think they might win more games than people might think so. We'll go with a fourteen. Big mix broncos packers steelers and browns. And certainly you've got to have confidence at teddy bridgewater. Who is very good at covering so what we're going to do next is play a game that we call pick a loser o. What a loser. And the goal of this segment is to think different in. It's actually the opposites everyone says we want to identify winners in this segment. We're going to identify a losing bet and for me. I'm actually going to go with the san francisco forty miners forty niners laying three and a half on the road taken on the eagles. And i've got four reasons for this number one. Could the forty niners lose this game straight up. Yes so. I feel comfortable being on the eagles as a team. That could win at home number two. They're giving more than a field goal on the road. So the forty niners can still win by field goal and boom. I'm a winner number three. Not one hundred percents sure. What's up with the forty niners defense. You just gave up a crap on a points to the lions and number four as you mentioned scott strong offense and defensive lines for the eagles and we know you win in the trenches so for those four reasons the forty niners minus three and a half is my pick a loser of the week. What about roll. I'm gonna roll with the dallas cowboys. And i'm gonna do it for a couple of reasons. First and foremost..
The Sharp 600
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Sharp 600
"Against the patriots but more so what's the perception of the bills. Now after that game we came into the season. All anybody can really remember. As the bill's going up and down the field specially blowing out teams in the regular season and the year. Now we've got this vision of the steelers. Shutting them down josh allen not as accurate maybe regressing like you spoke without derrick henry josh allens hugely forward last year a lot of people talking about whether he'll regress or not fat on is that usually the dog is the team that i feel is more uncomfortable situation but i see a lot of people flocking to the dolphins in this one after the week one result and i'm wondering if those people thought the same way before week one so that's the tricky one. All of the other ones. I think are live dog. But i'd be a little air for thousands. And i think a lot of those are very uncomfortable. No one feels all warm and fuzzy. Taking zach wilson against the patriots or the colts our team. I was unfortunately on last week. It was pretty much lost right out of the gate. No one feels good for them. Certainly against the rams team and when you feel this no one feels good. That should be a little alert for you of wait a second. I should think twice about this for your points on the bills. The one thing that i would say is i believe in the culture of the bills. I really like sean mcdermott. As a head coach. I like the way that they've built this team in this program so while i agree with everything that you're saying there i am more apps to believe in that organization as a whole because they've been proving this and building this for years. Now that's a very good point and a good reason to stay steer clear of it. It is interesting though the last two times. We've seen the bills play. They have not. I thought mcdermott enable maybe brian cabell the offensive coordinator elite coaches. Afc championship game against the chiefs. They were very conservative. Not like they were before and they got totally outcoached by the steelers in week one. So oatley bounced back because they've been a fun team to watch grow in a fun game to watch on the field all right so let's have some fun and gives some picks and let's do our big mick money line parlay of the week so they got the big mac. I've got big mic. And the goal of the big mic is to put together a money. Line parlay that gets us to minus one ten or better in scott. I've got three team or that pays minus one. Oh four give me the browns the packers in the steelers so look into the browns boom. That's the fate on the texans packers. They're taking on the lions. Those are the two double digit. Dogs are double digit favorites. Which were no brainers. So when i tried to identify my third right here. I didn't wanna throw in the box versus falcons for it being a division matchup right there so even though it's a big spread i just threw it out so now i'm looking to find one team that has preferably at home that i believe is going to win and there weren't a lot of options because you're sitting there looking at chargers versus cowboys know things seahawks tie in. Despite the fact that what we said about the titans could they win share so for me. I'm going with the steelers. Because one i love what i saw of their defense to their at home. Three raiders on a short week coming off a big win on monday night. Football so give me the browns packers steelers. Three team.
The Sharp 600
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Sharp 600
"I think he. Eagles approved more than anything that they have when healthy great offensive line and a great defensive line and that can dominate games. Not just win them. And that's how they beat. The falcons shore jalen hurts. Look good onto smith. With the early touchdown. The first round. Pick the falcons played in their hand by running the ball probably too much. But in the end they won the game in the trenches in the eagles had a lot of injuries on the on the offensive line particularly over the last few years when they're healthy they're a strong bench. And that defensive line absolutely dominated the falcons so they continue to dominate in the trenches. It'll be illegitimate tender in the nfc would probably won't have a team that wins more than nine or maybe ten games most all right so let's look forward to week two and week. Two is overreaction. Week what we saw in week one was that who the team was or was it as aaron rodgers. Would you say just one game so to help you out. What i to say is we wanna teach you how to fish. So what i wanna do is list the overreaction candidates good and bad that we have sort of a menu of teams that you can identify and say all right. When i'm making my bets this weekend. What do i think about each of them. So let's start with the good. We've got the cardinals who smoked titans. Thirty eight thirteen for me. They very much have shiny objects syndrome. B- care for them because you can fall in love with the narrative of collar. Murray and scott. I'll get your thoughts on each of the good and the bad. After i go through these number two the saints. They smoked the packers. Thirty eight to three into displaced environment. Everyone thought wait a second. What's going to happen for the saints with everything in disorder. They were the opposite of that number. Three the raiders. They beat the ravens in prime time in overtime as four point dogs. The raiders always have shiny objects syndrome because of jon gruden and the media narrative that is attached to the now las vegas raters and the last ones the texans. They smoke the jags. Seven twenty one. Are they not the worst team in football so scott starting with those teams. Do you have any thoughts on overreaction one way or another on any of those four. Well the cardinals. I think you have to be careful. There's it's very doubtful that a guy like chandler jones is gonna get the Turnstile of tyler the line to lead the five sacks again. I do think they have improved. Defense based on the defensive front but their secondary which wasn't tested by the titans has a lot of holding it. I'm not overly excited. Still about what i saw from cliff kingsbury who was supposed to be an offensive sharp guy coming into the league hasn't been i'm neutral on the cardinals. I wouldn't get overly excited. They're probably a borderline playoff in the raiders. I ran into a ravens team. That was banged up. Made a lot of mistakes. Dropped in the raiders. Dropped back to pass a lot net game if they continue to do so. I don't know if that'll be a winning recipe. With derek carr but the ravens failed to get any sort of pressure on him. Which was a little bit surprising. I think the raiders are still under five hundred team and the texans. I think they just ran into a jaguars team. Might be the only team in the league. That is worse than them with a head coach..
The Sharp 600
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Sharp 600
"The narrative that we saw pittsburgh didn't look sexy in the first half it all and actually they looked very stagnant but the defense kept them in the game and they kept them in the game and boom in the blink of an eye two touchdowns happening and they took the lead. And now they've got this suffocating defense. I did however have one bit of reservation as it related to ben rothlisberger. He looked extremely brittle. He looked like the old quarterback that everyone said he was going to be usually been his little sprayer frisky. Sort of like the fitzpatrick. Like wow look at him. Just sort of shaking baking. He did not look like that. So the good steelers defense. My hesitation ben looked shaky in that offensive. Line was rough any thoughts for you on. Well you saw from pittsburgh. Well i think you said a lot of really sharp things about the defense in that there was a lot of talk of people thinking the loss of a few key players was gonna lead from them being an elite defense to a mediocre defense. Not taking into account the acquisitions that were made getting devon bush back and what i think is most important of all with the steelers defense. Is there scheme. What a great game plan. That was that day came up with normally blitzburgh became a team that never hardly blitz at all in fact got pressure with that front for. They had josh allen thinking over thinking unlike he did last year. So i thought that was extremely impressive and you mentioned it as well. The offense is kind of what we expected. Maybe we were hoping for a little more pre snap motion like we saw in the pre season and we were hoping that maybe ben was a little bit better than he looked at the end of the year. None of those really happen. The offensive line didn't open holes. I think you made a real good point overall. The steelers are the kind of team that i would be very willing to take points with specially close to six or more against just about any team in the nfl. The question is are you willing to lay those kind of point knowing exactly what we just said about the offense and the defense. Yes and you'd hope that the offense would get better as they get more continuity certainly on the offensive line in the second team that we looked at and it was not a vote of support but it was more than idenfifications of something was the philadelphia eagles because they were another team where the preseason narrative on them was the eagles are going to be last place or fighting for the giants for the bottom of that division and holy smokes. batman they straight crushed the falcons. And what made me think about. This is scott when you and i did the podcast. For so many episodes we would see the falcons this shiny object. And you see. Julio jones and matt ryan and every reason why you should want to bet the falcons but we knew when you bet the falcons things happen in the wrong way in all of a sudden boom the eagles boat race them and i feel like the eagles may have changed the perception on themselves more than any team this week..
The Sharp 600
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Sharp 600
"Wanna lock myself in at this number without realizing whoa. That might go up to four or might go down to one. What is your process for how you hauer when you put in your bets. I think a lot of it is a feel thing rob but a macro rule would be with an underdog especially at unsexy team like the lions waiting is oftentimes the right. Move the odds of that. Going to seven as opposed to going to eight and a half nine which are kind of dead numbers although we found out that they weren't so dead especially eight. That's that probably one rule. If you would've liked the niners may be jumping in at seven and a half same could be said for any game. Maybe a game where. There's a read a half point favorite road favorite real heavy sexy team playing less sexy team on the road. Probably getting in as the favourite would be advisable. Where wade doesn't always work. But i think more times than not it will and some of it's just a feel thing kind of getting a feel for what the public is going to do and also what the sharps are going to do. It's not all about the public tough to have a steadfast rule but generally speaking. I think if you leave with the favorites jumping in at the lower nut jumping early underdogs maybe waiting it out. It would be a good thing all right but we will get to this game. Eagles are getting three and a half this week. Taken on the forty niners. All right there at home does it. Change your mindset at all for a home dog as opposed to a road underdog a little bit because usually if a home dog especially at a number like three and a half most people think the road favorite is significantly. Better a three and a half koi three and a half point road dogg. Those teams are almost equal so the public perception is going to be different. So yes i would be more. We're more willing to jump in early on a road. Favorite at the three three and a half number. I would be erode erode. Aw that makes sense. It does make sense so one last thing from nfl week. One when elliot. And i were talking. We decided to sort of put our crystal ball on miss cleo style and say all right if some teams were to win this week how would it change our narrative and there is two teams that we brought up. One being the pittsburgh steelers. Hey if the steelers wore to beat the bills how would this change the narrative on them in me being steelers fan. What i took from that game is won. The steelers having elite defense. I already knew. They had an the defense but the media narrative that was out. There was so much pushing anti pittsburgh in what everyone was sort of harping on. The defense isn't going to be as good because they lost do pre except for the fact that alex highsmith was not a first round. Pick with highly drafted as well as sanni. Melvin ingram in that combination with tj watt has really allowed them to have a powerful force on the edges. And then number two. They're getting devon bush back so i was extremely confident in the steelers from defensive side of things so my mindset on pittsburgh was listen the offense with ben rothlisberger on the offensive line. It can be whatever it is but defensively the steelers are going to be in games..
The Sharp 600
"scott shapiro" Discussed on The Sharp 600
"Thirty four scott great to have you back on the show. Yeah body. Congratulations on the move and daas just super excited for the nfl season to be back. Got off to a highly entertaining. Start lots of upsets. Lots of exciting games especially on prime time looking forward to week to. Yeah and i'm really looking forward to this. Because here's what we're going to do for today's show one we're going to recap week one in a way where we say. Hey what are lessons learned. What our nuggets. We're not going through all the games more high level stuff. Then we're going to look at week. Two what are the opportunities. We're going to play the games in have some fun. So if you listen to week one. Congratulations because hopefully it was profitable for you. Because we went three with our picks we that was money and with that i'll quickly recap them. Number one. pick a loser was the jags. This was a principal bat forest piece of cake. Why jaguars a one win. Team laying a field goal on the road with the rookie head coach in a rookie quarterback they could have been playing alabama for all that i care i was going to be taking the other side and i felt so much joy when nfl week one started in the team that performed the best. Right out of the gate was the houston texans. It didn't matter what else happened. The rest of the week. I'm sitting there. And i'm dancing. And i'm like boom look at my houston texans so super proud and excited for that are get comfortable being uncomfortable better. The week was the miami dolphins. And why did we do that. Because we gave this data about the division matchups with the team. Getting points in the dolphins were getting a feel. It was a close game but did work in our favor and last certainly not least the big mick money land parlay the week. That hit got a little bit hairy with the bucks on thursday nights in the chiefs against the browns but in the rams are brought it home for us to give us a three and a week love starting that way scott..
KDWN 720AM
"scott shapiro" Discussed on KDWN 720AM
"Opinions of the hosts on Katie tell you when are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of this station. It's management or Beasley Media groups. Radio studios in New York City information. You want proof? You demand it's Brian Kill made Frank. Kill me here. Thanks so much for listening to the show. We have a lot to discuss from New York heard around the country heard around the world coming up. Surely no stranger to New York audiences. Bob Blabber from news Day, but he's also president of Pro Football Writers Association. We now have a Super Bowl matchup. We've got a lot of intrigue with its gonna be bucks against the Chiefs. This guy named Tom Brady, I think is going to show up in the writing. M v P will be his opponent is 25 years old and then Jeffrey Scott Shapiro on the chances of impeachment, the president getting convicted on being tossed out and getting those 17 votes from Republicans. I don't see that happening at all. I don't even see why we're having it and coming up next Jamie Metzl will be here. Jamie is a senior fellow, The Atlantic Council and founder of one shared Hey, is calling right in his Newsweek story today. He is hey was appointed to the W. H O is an expert advisory committee member, Hey, is a genius and he wrote how Beijing must come clean about the cove in 19 covert 19 virus. The fact is that we went back to the W H O without any preconditions, and we said thank you so much for accepting us back rather than demanding that they stop answering to China. And start entering to the world and get in and find out what actually caused this virus. So let's get to the Big Three. Now with the stories you need.