17 Burst results for "Scott Miner"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast on his friend Scott miner, a conversation with bob diamond. I just already miss him terribly. He had the kindest soul of anyone I've ever worked with for every person who worked with. And Tom, it actually went before that to Morgan Stanley, Scott and I were in Morgan Stanley, New York. I moved to London in 88 to run international fixed income trading, the trading outside the U.S., Scott was good enough to leave his unit and come and join my unit, which was pretty new at the time. And when I think back at the incredible transaction we did during that period, not many people recall this, but we did the first European currency unit Bond ever issued in 1992 when Scott and I were at Morgan Stanley. Ironically, the issuer was the Bank of England, and it was certainly a precursor to all that came following that with the single currency and the introduction of the Euro in 1998, but that was just to me just another example of how Scott was always at the very, very forefront of everything going on in the fixed income markets. Scarlet foo and our fed coverage have always seen how he's supple how he could change his mind as I say he had a train of thought like a CPA not like some fancy CFA macro baloney. But the answer is Scott minard for you and others, including Guggenheim, had to manage risk. What was the key risk attribute that he had daily on the desk at Morgan Stanley and in Credit Suisse? I think of a time at Credit Suisse. First of all, this is a man who loved studying the markets. The fed always had a grasp on the macro environment. Catch more of this in other conversations on today's Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Subscribe to Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Please
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To understand particularly with the new small modular reactor. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast, on his friend Scott miner, a conversation with bob diamond. I just already miss him terribly. He had the kindest soul of anyone I've ever worked with for every person who worked with. And Tom, it actually went before that to Morgan Stanley, Scott and I were in Morgan Stanley, New York. I moved to London in 88 to run international fixed income trading, the trading outside the U.S., Scott was good enough to leave his unit and come and join my unit, which was pretty new at the time. And when I think back at the incredible transaction we did during that period, not many people recall this, but we did the first European currency unit Bond ever issued in 1992 when Scott and I were at Morgan Stanley. Ironically, the issuer was the Bank of England, and it was certainly a precursor to all that came following that with a single currency and the introduction of the Euro in 1998. But that was just, to me, just another example of how Scott was always at the very, very forefront of everything going on in the fixed income markets. Scarlet foo and our fed coverage have always seen how he's supple how he could change his mind as I say. He had a train of thought like a CPA, not like some fancy CFA macro baloney. But the answer is Scott minard for you and others, including Guggenheim, had to manage risk. What was the key risk attribute that he had daily on the desk at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse? I think of a time at Credit Suisse. First of all, this is a man who loved studying the markets stuff seeing the fed always had a grasp on the macro environment. Catch more of this in other conversations on today's Bloomberg surveillance podcast
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Wall Street time, great reporting on this big take stories. I don't know how much time these reporters spend on some of these big take stories, but they are super in depth reporting. They really get feed on the ground and do some good good stuff in this story on ALS is one of them. A little more coming up. This is Bloomberg. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast on his friend Scott miner, a conversation with bob diamond. I just already miss him terribly. He had the kindest soul of anyone I've ever worked with for every person who worked with. And Tom, it actually went before that to Morgan Stanley, Scott and I were in Morgan Stanley, New York. I moved to London in 88 to run international fixed income trading, the trading outside the U.S., Scott was good enough to leave his unit and come and join my unit, which was pretty new at the time. And when I think back at the incredible transaction we did during that period, not many people recall this, but we did the first European currency unit Bond ever issued in 1992 when Scott and I were at Morgan Stanley. Ironically, the issuer was the Bank of England, and it was certainly a precursor to all that came following that with the single currency and the introduction of the Euro in 1998. But that was just, to me, just another example of how Scott was always at the very, very forefront of everything going on in the fixed income markets. Scarlet foo and our fed coverage have always seen how he's supple how he could change his mind as I say he had a train of thought like a CPA not like some fancy CFA macro baloney. But the answer is Scott miner for you and others, including Guggenheim, had to manage risk. What was the key risk attribute that he had daily on the desk at Morgan Stanley and in Credit Suisse? I think of a time at Credit Suisse. First of all, this is a man who loved studying the markets. The fed always had a grasp on the macro environment. Catch more of this and other conversations on today's Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Subscribe to Apple, Spotify
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Guggenheim CIO Scott miner has died regarded as one of the kings of the bond market during its four decade bull run. He was 63. He's got two U.S. equity futures and some of the other market moves overnight, of course we had the GDP upward revision. We had some strong spending data for U.S. consumers and that means, well, U.S. economies more resilient, maybe more resilient than expected, maybe the fed needs to do more. Either way, this is where we stand on the S&P 500 mini were higher by about a 5th of 1%. We saw treasuries sell off after the GDP revision was revised higher. We were 360 eight 97 for U.S. tens at the moment, the dollar index is still flat on this Friday and then Brent crude is up 8 tenths of 1%. I want to get to this chart and talk about the year that was the year of 2022. I'm not going to tell you what kind of moving averages we broke or didn't break. I'm going to talk to you about volatility because vix, the big sun SPX moved in tandem 26% of the time this year. That's the most since 2006. And the spikes that we did see in the vix in the year, what they've actually been viewed because we topped out at 36. That is a lower level than doing every bear market since 1990. Very bizarre situation. I also want to talk to you about natural gas in the United States. Another day, another extension of the intraday price action at the moment to the upside of about 2.7%. We have this cold wave, a blizzard conditions on the central part of the United States, a monstrous once in a decade event. Farmers are bracing for record cold. Think of machinery maybe breaking down impacting wheat growth, freezing lifestyle at a time of historic food inflation that's apart from the disruption that's happening to holiday travel and to people's lives more broadly. We'll keep a close eye on that. I want to get back to this part of the world. Talk about Egypt because they hiked interest rates by 300 basis points. That is the most since 2016. And they're trying to tackle surging inflation. Amid expectations of a further devaluation of the pound. Now although the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey had predicted the increase, here's the issue, non foresaw this kind of magnitude. So I think it's now as yet my he's the manager director and head of equities research at our comm capital. How do you tie this together then the statement from the Central Bank of Egypt? What stood out to you? No, I'm quite happy with the rate hike. We expected 2%, but obviously exceeded that with 3%. This is a U turn to orthodox policy making already raised the rates that are 2% to the prior month. Taking the cumulative rates increased almost 10% for the year. The currency is still very fragile. If you look at the black market or the GDR that's listed in London for the largest bank, it implies the currency at 34. So it's very much wide compared to the current exchange rate of 24 and a half. And there are significant room for a deliberation, which we expect to come through in the next week or so. The forces, the forces that are driving the Egypt opportunity set in equities. It's very different than treasuries. And you actually see quite a few entry points here in Egypt stocks for 2023, right? Correct. So we've been recommending people to move out of the T bills to move out of the CDs into the equities because and the way to play that is either to play that through dislocate the stalks like CIB basically being the proxy for the market. But also exporters initially, they can reset the prices and there's a one for one follow through even more so because obviously the cost escalation will be shy of that. So this is how we've been playing Egypt. Now on top of that, I think the deeper markets will recover as well because earnings will adjust to higher inflation levels. So there will be quite easy for companies to pass on the higher importing cost to the consumers and therefore protect their margins. So earnings will reset earnings will be based on a normal basis, and therefore they continue to grow in the new year. I was talking earlier about the data that we got for Saudi Arabia, which showed that oil export revenues have begun to follow a little bit to levels that we haven't seen in about 8 months. Four 2023, active investors, their underweight Saudi Arabia. What are you telling clients about approaching Saudi stocks at the moment for the new year? We're rather neutral on Saudi itself. Evaluations are still at the premium compared to other emerging markets. And there is a very large component of banks in the country, and that's obviously sensitive to rates. So obviously depending on your market view, whether rates stay high for the during the course of the year, then obviously you want to play that. If your view is that rates will start to come down already by Q two, obviously, I think you should be underweight. The Saudi banks still, I think, the fundamentals are very strong. The backdrop is very resilient. There's very little uncertainty about oil prices in my view. There might be a little bit of demand destruction obviously because of the slowdown we see in U.S. and Europe and depending on the reopening in China and obviously there could be some demand destruction of about half a million barrels a day. But I think it can easily be adjusted by Saudi as it will just be proactive from that perspective. So oil price will be 80 to a hundred. You know, our view. So there's no downside from that perspective. Fiscal spending continues to be very supportive. As well. The spending has been increased by about 18% just a couple of months back. So I think things are looking pretty solid. And then you can play the internationalization of the country. Just to follow up on the fiscal side of things. And the resilience story. Does this resilience story also apply to Saudi consumers? And if so, what are the tangential planes, the kind of work with that where the valuation with the check all the other boxes for you from valuation to cash flow? Yeah, so we turned from neutral to overweight for the Saudi consumers and we moved a little bit away from the bank sector. So banks have to return from overweight to neutral for the consumer sector returned from neutral to overweight. And there's a lot of interesting stories. Spending is up still about 7% in real term three to 4% still experts populations growing by double digits this year, population growth is very solid, so that there's a very strong backdrop inflationary press is only 3% in the country, right? So consumers spending continues to do well. So we're playing their reopening through likes of budget, which is a rental company, legion, which is a gym operator, catering, which is obviously catering for the for the airlines. So these are interesting or reopening plays. There's dislocation and valuation in the electronic space, the rear. And there's a
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To talk about investing in energy companies with oil at about $78 per barrel on WTI. But first, let's go to Nathan Hager, get a Bloomberg business flash makeup. Yeah, we'll start with the breaking news in case you just joined a Scott miner, the Guggenheim partners chief investment officers regarded as one of the bond kings of the past decades has died. The firm says he passed yesterday after a heart attack during his regular workout. He was 63 years old. Guggenheim says it has implemented its succession plan. As for this market, stocks continue to decline as investors contend with data that appears to validate the Federal Reserve's assertion that this economy is robust enough to withstand even more policy tightening Mark Cabana Bank of America global head of U.S. short rate strategy is advising his clients that as the feds fight against inflation continues, they should add more long bonds. You're going to be seeing yields that are probably going to be moving lower. You're going to be seeing yields that have value in portfolio portfolios again as they serve as a hedge to risk off moves where yields when we see risk off will go down as opposed to up some prices will increase, not decrease as we saw over the course of 2022. And that is going to mean that investors should be thinking more constructively about fixed income broadly. And we check the markets all day long at Bloomberg. A S&P 500 right now is down, 70 points or 1.8%, 38 O 7 is the S&P level, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 457 or 1.4%, 32 9 16, the NASDAQ is lower by 276 points down 2.6%
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Things Wall Street that got that beat down Cole joins us here in our Bloomberg interactive broker studio. So Sean certainly shocking news here for the greater Wall Street the greater financial markets community. What's your sense? What's your take? You know, I've personally just gotten an outpouring of emails immediately as the news broke. One of his colleagues had he just messaged me saying I met you through Scott. Scott was one of the kindest people you'll ever meet. His kindness, new new bounds. I'm so devastated I've known him for a decade. And he was a mentor in the full sense of the word. So that is just one email. Another billionaire investor messaged me and said, good, deep thinker, right? Are you guys were just talking about it? This idea here that they're not a lot of people who not only are deep thinkers, they're also very few people that were as vocal and contrarian as he was. So it's definitely a very big loss on Wall Street. It is a huge loss for the 900 people that work at Guggenheim. It is a huge loss for his family as, of course, this was very shocking and sudden and happened just within the last 24 hours during a normal course workout. Remember he was a bodybuilder. And so very sad news. He was a very healthy person. He struggled with COVID himself long COVID for a while as well. So, you know, I saw him personally work through that and he was as a vocal and energetic as ever, as he really fought the fed here. I mean, that was something that, as long as I've covered him, was always an undertone, was Scott miner, a bond king, really, was he somebody that ultimately
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The fed the last few hours or so for look at how things are shaping up for the Asian trade in day. Here's Doug prisoner. Hey Doug. Hey, Yvonne, it's been a while. Glad you're on the program with us today. We've got a lot to talk about. We had the equity market stateside snapping a two day rally. A lot of volatility today. Yes, the fed did deliver another rate hike along with the summary of economic projections will unpack that in closer detail momentarily. So this rate hike 50 basis points market both equities and the treasury market well prepared for this move. Now, we did have the stock market climbing from session lows when the fed shares seemed to suggest that the fed is getting close to reaching the end of its tightening cycle. Maybe that's reading too much between the lines. We'll probably be talking a lot about that. So equity is slower, but off session lows with the Dow today down about four tenths of 1%, the S&P weaker by about 6 tenths, and the NASDAQ composite dropping about 8 tenths of 1% today. Yields across the curve a little bit lower, not by much of the two year down two basis points. Check that the two year was little changed. It was the tenure that was down two basis points to four 30 four let me get this again. Three 47, the two year was at four 20 that got that right. Dollar weakness today with the Bloomberg dollar spot index down about three tenths of 1% slightly stronger yen here, not by much, and we had a rally in the crude oil market. We were up for a third day with WTI up about two and a half percent, 77, 28. The energy international agency was saying that crude oil prices this year may need to rise as sanctions then squeeze Russian supplies and demand beats earlier forecast. I'll take another look at market action for you in a little while from now, Brian. Doug, thanks very much. It is also very interesting that top Chinese officials now will start their annual work conference on Thursday after all, and that is a reversal of a decision that we had reported in previous days. Let's take a closer look at this fed meeting, the chair Jay Powell says that the fed is a ways to go before ending the tightening campaign. Palace spoke after today's fed decision. I haven't made a judgment on what size rate hike to make. Having moved so quickly and having now so much restraint that's still in the pipeline, we think that the appropriate thing to do now is to move to a slower pace. It will depend on a variety of factors, including the incoming data in particular. The state of the economy, the state of financial conditions. Powell added that he would not consider rate cuts until the fed is confident that inflation is moving down toward the 2% target in a sustained way. He said, restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. Yeah, I take a look at the dots too, Brian, fed Paul's makers are now projecting the benchmark interest rate could rise to as high as 5.1% next year and that is above the level previously estimated, officials are also cutting their economic growth forecast for 2023, the median estimate calls for expansion at a rate of half of 1%. But Guggenheim's Scott miner tells us that's, quote, overly optimistic. When you look at how restrictive monetary policy would be based upon what they just told us, 5.1% funds rate at the end of the next year, when we have an inflation rate of 3.1, that's pretty restrictive. And when you start to look at what it's going to take to bring inflation down, our in-house estimate is that we would probably see about a 2% rise in unemployment over a two year horizon. So you don't the numbers don't all add up. That was Guggenheim Scott miner, the next fed meeting will happen on February 1st. And Yvonne, this one is very interesting. Dutch chip gear giant ASML has, quote, given up enough with the preexisting restrictions on its sales to China. That's according to the company's CEO, Peter wenk. In an interview with the Dutch newspaper NRC Bloomberg's David ingles has more. In that NRC interview, winning said ASML has already surrendered. That's because there's a radiant effective ban on its cutting edge extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. When said U.S. chip gear makers benefited from restrictions as more than 25% of their revenue actually comes from China. He added that China only accounts for 15% of ASML sales. The comments come as the U.S. is pushing the Netherlands to impose you controls and exports of chip making equipment to China. The Netherlands and Japan are the world's top suppliers outside of the United States. We're told that both nations have agreed earlier this week in principle to join the U.S. in blocking Chinese exports. And there's some further complications yesterday we reported that the Biden administration was set to put the chip maker young some memory technologies on a trade blacklist and then today we have a report from Reuters that the Biden administration actually plans to remove some Chinese entities from a red flag trade list. We'll get you further details on these stories later in the hour. Yvonne. Yeah, let's get the latest headlines now. China is going to stop counting COVID cases at Baxter has more in your global news. He had yeah, Yvonne, I'm glad we didn't scare you away the last time you were here. Welcome back. Yeah, it says it's become impossible to count asymptomatic cases as we've been reporting the conflicting messages coming from health officials about spread and then decrease in case numbers. National health commission says impossible to count asymptomatic cases without that testing, which makes sense. How bad will the spread of COVID be in China? Well, Ian bremmer Eurasia group president says it will spread quickly. This disease is going to rip through the Chinese population now. I mean, thankfully it doesn't, it's not going to kill the average Chinese worker, but when you talk about the over 80 population, my God, I mean, there's a reason why they've been locked down for the last couple of years. They've been scared that if they opened up, it would cause millions of deaths. Yeah, bremer says he's happy if in fact there have been no deaths reported and that that is data. He says, and reporting more than reality. And China's Mexico group has signed an agreement with Pfizer to import and distribute paxil of Ed on the mainland. Isn't widely known how quickly it will be widely available. And China has removed 6 consular officials from the UK. It involves a spat between the UK and China after an attack on a Hong Kong man staging a peaceful protest outside the Chinese consulate in Manchester, UK foreign minister James cleverly says they had asked China to have the officials testify to police and they didn't want to do that. In response to our
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"So it's a scary environment out there. You had heavyweights like ray dalio, Scott miner to Jeff gunlock all in the past week or so, saying they could see a 20% sell off in the S&P 500 from here under certain conditions, but then you have other investors saying that when you really want to buy stocks is when inflation peaks, it is still painful because the fed will still be raising interest rates because most of the time the fed is behind on that, but it's once inflation peaks that you can make the most handsome gains in the stock market. So that's the little sort of war that's playing out in the market. It's the S&P bounced around today. Actually finished higher, which was a little surprising given the severity of the drop. The previous day, but we didn't have a PPI falling for a second month, and that slightly eased fears that had rocketed the day before on that hot CPI report. A couple of stories for you briefly, New Zealand's economy grew more than expected in the second quarter GDP rising 1.7% from the first quarter when it fell, not .2% from a year ago, the economy expanded, not .4%. Also investors are voting with two thumbs down on the Chinese conglomerate full sun, it faces about $8 billion in bond repayments through 2023, companies dollar bonds are on pace for record lows and shares dropped yesterday to a decade low. And that's a brief look at the markets. Let's get headline used with Denise Pellegrini in the Bloomberg newsroom, Denise. Thank you, Brian. And the clock is ticking
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now both Sweeney and Matt Miller. All right, great, Jared. Good stuff. We appreciate it. You know Matt was just calling out here and I end screen the Bloomberg index browser, Bloomberg, U.S. corporate, total return value year to date. -14.6%. Treasuries too, -14.8. I mean, what's going on? And that does in total return. So not that it would have mattered because the coupons are so low, man. Yes. But it's harsh. And look, my mom and dad just retired. This month and I feel for them. I guess I'm going to have to step up. Sure. Is there broke now? You know? All right, Liz McCormick, global fixed income on foreign exchange reporter joins us live here in a Bloomberg, you know, I have to broker studio. So Liz, again, these are numbers. These are performance numbers. Your Friends in a fixed income market have ever seen? Never seen? Yeah, I mean, some of the data how you splice and dice it is like at least the worst first half and kind of modern times call it. I was mentioning to Matt that Deutsche Bank had some great data back to the 1700s, like how bad it was. I mean, people just aren't, most people aren't used to this kind of beating up in bonds. I mean, do people in fixed income today? They try to call the bottom like we hear equity. Investors try to call the Bacchus. Yeah, and this is where I feel like I see the same dichotomy going on as you guys are talking all about and stocks, you know, is this like a bear rally? Is it over? Same thing in bonds. People saying, oh, we've seen the peak and yields, you know, all the fed pricing for hikes is in there, the worst is over. And then other people saying, um, wait a minute, you know? Like 3.5 on the ten year was the highest we've seen, but like, listen, you know, I've been around for a while like the folks at Bridgewater have said to me a few times. We think rates go a lot higher, ten year could go to 4% or more. You know, fed is just got a lot more tightening to do. So there is these battles, I think, in both asset classes, you know? We'll see who wins in the end, right? Maybe next year sometime. I met a guy over the weekend, 83 years old, fascinating guy, and he watches and listens to us every day. He trades bonds every night. So at the end of the day, he'll make a trade, put on a position and then the next day. No one, nobody does that, right? Nobody does that. My father, who I've been doing this for so long, still says to me, can you explain to me again? What a bond is, you know what I mean? All the bond traders, I know all the guys I know who worked in firms on the street have long since retired or quit. Right, exactly. I remember my old boss ward McCarthy saying, years back when there was yield saying, I bought, you know, zero coupons, ages ago, and that put my kids through college. You know, like what used to be such great rates and those are just gone. Well, actually, Scott miner did say he's buying the strips, right? 20 years. Which is kind of jargony, but I guess when you strip out the coupon, you can trade the maturities, and then you can also trade each due date of the coupon. It's like a bullet, you know? It's just like a single coupon, in a sense, just what you get at the end. But yeah, they're stripping and I saw that. And we'll see, I mean, if we were in this era that we're never going to get rates too high again, which I'm not sure I buy into yet. People who bought strips or locked in tens at over 3% are going to be pretty happy if in a couple of years the feds fighting in a recession cutting rates again. Is that, by the way, kind of a consensus that the fed is going to raise rates high enough to fight inflation because now they have to. That's they're locked in and not only is it one of their actual mandates. And then we're going to have a recession in 2023 and they're going to have to cut right back down again. Well, I would say the timing of the recession gets nebulous. A lot of people say late 2023, I've heard a few say, maybe there's enough cash in the system corporations are much better. It could be 2024, but I think in general Matt, you're right that it's fast up front loaded quick and then the fed is going to have to eventually not too long be cutting rates again because they're trying to manage in pal said he's gone from, you know, like soft landing soft dish to saying, well, we could have a slow. He's trying, but you raise rates this fast, and I know there's not a lot of floating rate debt out there, but I have a home equity line of credit. And I was like, oh, they raised that rate pretty darn fast. You know what I mean? And not only that. Joel levington wrote a piece about the automakers. Now they're facing a $145 billion wall of debt. And it's not like, you know, they can just hold it. Right. They're constantly rolling over. So now they're going to look at 250, 300 basis points of increased cost. This, by the way, adds to inflation because they've got to pass that along to the customer, but it's tough for companies as well. Yeah, I think everyone, you're going to feel this very quickly. Now the fed said, we're really watching financial conditions, which is kind of nebulous, you know, how tight do they have to get, you know, not just what's the hard rate, the fed funds has to get to, but that's what they're watching. How does this filter through, look at mortgage rates over 6%. You know, they seem like so low for so long. The housing market has an imploded yet, but for once, not that I'm looking to buy, but you see on Zillow finally, price reduction. We didn't see that forever. So I think it's going to be no sale. I know people who wanted to sell and now they can't so they got to rent. Yeah, and you know what rents are crazy, right? Going up in price, the leases up, I've heard so many people complaining, oh, the lounge putting up my rank 25. Rent is too damn high. The rent is too damn high. So if you move, is that another reason to move the Austin Texas or? I don't think pricing is good in Austin Texas. I don't think it is either. You don't get a special rates because it's Texas. So where do you have to go? Columbus, Ohio. It's a great place to live in very affordable. People are just wonderful. And they play football. No accent. It's the only place in the country where there's absolutely no regional accents. They use people from the great state of Ohio often for newscasters. And Matt Miller, case in point. All right, Liz McCormick. Thanks so much for joining us, Liz McCormack. She covers all things global fixed income, foreign exchange reporters. She does it all for Bloomberg news and most important. She is in the Bloomberg director broker studio today, so we appreciate that. Looking at these markets here, just a little bit of red on the screen, not going to oversell here
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The target range for the federal funds rate to one and a half to one and three quarters percent Former Richmond fed president Jeffrey lacker says more is needed I think it's going to have to go to about 5 and a half or 6% It's my own sense and that's based on just the historical record that indicates that real interest rates inflation adjusted short term policy rates have to get above zero in order to have any chance of restraining inflation Former fed bank of Richmond president Jeffrey lacker says the fed should have raised rates last year Well this rate hike John now has many on Wall Street forecasting a recession for the U.S. economy we caught up with Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott minard There's a chance that we are already in a recession And so if we are in a recession or we're close to a recession and the fed pushes on this more and then we find that all of a sudden we have a decline in asset prices like stocks did in 87 then if the fed reverses course they're going to look like they're weak on inflation So this is a very very tough situation that we're maneuvering Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott miner says cracks are forming in the credit world he says the worst is probably not over And to enter the fed now it's the Bank of England's decision investors and economists are betting the UK Central Bank would deliver a 5th straight hike later this morning raising the base rate by 25 basis points to a 13 year high of 1.25% The former Bank of England governor Mark garney says he thinks policymakers are falling behind real world events I think what's clear.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"30 on Wall Street good morning I'm John Tucker I'm Nathan Hager we're about four hours away from the open of U.S. trading Let's get you up to date on the news you need to know at this hour the post fed rate hike rally appears over U.S. futures are sliding following yesterday's gains which halted a 5 day 10% route in the S&P Jay Powell and the fed lifted rate 75 basis points of the biggest increase since 1994 Former Richmond fed president Jeffrey lacker says policymakers now face the real reality of a recession They dropped a critical sentence indicating they're not certain they can do this soft landing That's an indication that they think they're running the risk of a recession Former Richmond fed president Jeffrey lacker says rates need to go up to 6% to have any chance of restraining inflation At Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott miner says the market is obsessed with inflation Every time we get another bad piece of news on inflation which is higher than expectation then we're forcing the fed to ratchet up their pace or the degree of tightening that they're doing Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott miner says there are cracks appearing in the credit world and the worst is probably not over The Swiss national bank unexpectedly raised interest rates John for the first time since 2007 policymakers opted to join the global bandwagon of monetary tightening lifting the rate by 50 basis points the policy rate to zero or negative 0.25% And we'll hear from the Bank of England at about 90 minutes from now economists forecasted the BOE will deliver a 5th straight rate hike In corporate news it's a big day for Twitter and Elon Musk Let's get more live from Bloomberg's we need a young good morning granita Good morning Nathan Elon Musk is addressing Twitter.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Also the comments from China's premier dica Chang the country suffering from the strains of COVID and the premier urging officials to try to stabilize growth they seem to be key drivers also in markets although actually we did see the CSI 300 gaming along with the Shanghai and Shenzhen comps both this morning As for the FX space Bloomberg told us what index is softer this morning the Euro flat a one spot zero 8 and the offshore yuan now down 7 tenths of 1% That is a pretty big radio business flash that his Stephen cowher with the old today's top stories good morning Morning Caroline and we'll start with that story from China and China's Premier Li keqiang saying the country is facing stronger economic headwinds and at the start of the pandemic in 2020 his emphasis on growth seen as an acknowledgment that China could find it tough to meet its target while remaining committed to president Xi's zero COVID policy Elon Musk is dropping plans to partially fund his purchase of Twitter with a margin loan tied to his Tesla stake and exchange filing revealing he's increasing the size of the deal's equity component to 33 and a half $1 billion The new structure could reduce the risk of the deal for both Musk and his lander Tesla's share price has sunk by around 40% since Musk first announced his stake in Twitter in early April Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says the social media giant could lose significant amounts of money in the next few years as it invests heavily in the metaverse At a shareholders meeting he said the project will eventually generate cash from a creator economy with businesses selling virtual goods and services However until then the company's batting on revenue growth from its Instagram reels short form video service And Guggenheim's partner's chief investment officer chief investment officer Scott miner says that Bitcoin and any cryptocurrency have not established themselves as a credible institutional investment We were probably going to hit $8000 before What was that number 8000 until we totally flush So you have what's going on No I mean if I were I'd be short Mine had had a December 2020 that Bitcoin would eventually climb to $400,000 Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Do you think Diane that he wants to say that J pal wants to see 2% inflation before he stops raising rates I do And I think that's because of the environment we're in We do have some things that are on offset a strong dollar Makes is not the situation we had in the 1970s when the dollar was depreciating But we've got a global inflation environment and central banks around the world has been slow on the uptake because of the pandemic The one two punch of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine and then the fed citing the lockdowns in China as well I think they really are focused on how supply constrain this world is but that they can't look through those supply constraints They now have to deal with them And I think that's the reality we're dealing with Initially after the fed decision came out the reaction in markets was pretty quiet Things fluctuating around Now they're decidedly lower on the equity side as people parse through And I wondered on how much it has to do with exactly that point The fact that the risk factor with China lockdowns the risk factor even with the Ukraine war was to hire inflation and that was the emphasis more than slowing growth Exactly And I think the reality is we're talking about also the risk of stagflation abroad accelerating inflation even as they may contract in response to war in Ukraine That is an untenable situation in an sustainable situation And one in which the fed is a Central Bank to the world has to take into account as well 6 minutes to the press conference and Scott miner with Diane swag today Just thrilled at this guest list and we got great conversation for it after the press conference Michael of course in attendance Scott mine and you've been listening to this in a 5% unemployment rate or wherever it would have given economic contraction speaks to the politics of this fed You and I have studied mcchesney Martin Truman I believe it was mcchesney Martin and LBJ again in Vietnam How political does power have to be sensitive to the Washington process Well.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Scum and traders and simply spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into the mouth spit them out I am convinced that such a natural and necessary cleansing of society will only strengthen our country Putin accused the west of wanting to destroy Russia and this morning Russia's finance ministry said a $117 million interest payment due on $2 bonds had been made to Citibank in London Well Nathan another major story that we're watching this morning is the continued reaction to the fed's liftoff on interest rates and Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us live with the latest John Karen stock and bond investors had completely different reactions to the fed's quarter point rate increase Stocks rallied bonds sold off the 5 ten year treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since early 2020 That's a recessionary signal at Guggenheim partners chief investment officer Scott miner isn't all that impressed with how the fed is tackling inflation I think that the fed has largely abandoned monetary orthodoxy It's trying to be too cute And how it's managing this Guggenheim Scott minerd says they are in an inflation panic The Central Bank also published forecasts from the authorities various officials the so called dot plot that indicated a steeper hiking path than before Live in New York I'm John Tucker Bloomberg daybreak Thank you John Interest rates are also in focus in Europe Let's get that story live with Bloomberg's UN pots Good morning Ewan Good morning Nathan and Karen The Bank of England was the first major Central Bank to tighten policy after the pandemic And today committee members look all but certain to hike rates for a third successive time If they do that would take the UK benchmark back to its pre COVID level as the bank battles soaring inflation That decision at 8 a.m. Eastern Time live in London I'm Ewan prods been big daybreak All right you and thank you about turning to the markets now stocks in Asia jumped once again on a surge in Chinese technology shares We get the recap from Bloomberg Surely it's selling in Singapore Good morning Juliet Good morning Nathan and Karen China's effort to stabilize markets or the hang seng index posted its best two day gain since 1998 The hang seng tech index added to Wednesday's dizzying 22% gain However the index is still down more than 50% from its February 2021 peak owing to a yearlong crackdown on the sector The lift in Hong Kong and Chinese equity saw the MSCI Asia Pacific index rise over 3% And the yen hovered near a 6 year low boosting the nikkei two two 5 by three and a half percent That was its best two day gain since April 2020 in Singapore Juliette Sally Bloomberg daybreak All right Juliet thank you Despite the recent pullback one Wall Street firm says oil prices are heading a lot higher Let's get that storyline from Bloomberg's we need a young good morning Good morning Nathan Morgan Stanley is raising its Brent oil price forecast for the third quarter from a $100 to a $120 a barrel Analysts there are citing tighter supply demand balances worldwide Morgan Stanley says the U.S. import ban and self sanctioning in Europe mean Russian crude production will drop by 1 million barrels a day which will be visible from April onwards Analysts are raising their estimate for 2023 from $95 to a $100 a barrel live in New York I'm ranita young Bloomberg daybreak We need to thanks right now Flirting with a $100 a barrel trading at $99 44 cents Brent is at a $102 65 Straight ahead your latest local headlines and a check of sports this is Bloomberg And it's now 6 O 7 on Wall Street still dealing with some fog this morning 45° in.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To 600,000 barrels a day We're asking the rest of the world to step up Production we should be stepping up production we're asking for the rest of the world to shut down any products that you're buying whether it be vodka or whether it be petroleum It's all the same The war in Ukraine also brings a new challenge for OPEC plus It meets Wednesday to discuss output Delegates said that the cartel will probably stick to its plan of only gradually increasing supply The European Union has agreed to ban 7 Russian banks from the swift financial messaging system but measure also themselves as a what this sanction is trying to achieve They're targeting across the board in Russia the elites whether it be those in business whether it's those who are known to be somewhat close to the Russian president at least in his orbit But some of them are yet to be targeted And the question is really more than that how much it filters down to the ordinary Russian consumer because what we're seeing is a real tightening of the screws on the economy across the board Meantime investors are cautioning about potential Russian retaliation against the sanctions Scott miner is a chief investment officer at Guggenheim investments He says that Russia is the highly likely to launch a cyberattack on the global financial system Mine had said if the Russians crippled the payment system it's going to seize up markets Senior analyst of investment strategy at center square investment management and we'll get to uma for her ideas about what to do with your money in the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Your NASDAQ bouncing back 2.5 Way better for the chairman than to see the red and the volatility we've seen what two three days in a row down to about one 32 p.m. right now Granted a lift into the close the last couple days but it's a very good tape for the chairman of the support meeting is upon us And looking for some guidance Tom is that garnish in line with the consensus Where do you think the consensus is right now TK four hikes Balance sheet reduction later this year What is it now No I think the consensus is Mike McKee at a better lunch than we had and you know he's going to move towards a press conference What I would say the consensus is how many dissents were there'll be What would be the debate and will we see action this meeting And that's a raging debate right now Is this a day for descent Lisa when we listen to the fed speak leading into this one And everybody on all spectrums of this Federal Reserve right now seems to be on the same page Descents from what I mean what decisions are they actually going to make at this point It sends from the trajectory of the guidance to send from some kind of end to the balance sheet reduction Honestly I'm curious to know what concrete steps will actually signal versus just basically saying they're watching the data and they're going to remain vigilant Let's wait through this price action for you We have a bit of bounce back a rally into the decision and that's that cassette by 2.4% the S&P by 1.5% We have done a lot of work in this bond market since this Federal Reserve last met Ten year yields one 78 to the FX market Euro dollar one 1293 We are down about a tenth of 1% on that currency pair and Lisa maybe this is a problem Crews back up again 87 57 crude up 2.3% What exactly is transitory when you have crude rising when you've got rents rising when you've got wages rising and coming up as we parse through all of these details we kick the conversation off with Deutsche Bank's Matthew luze Eddie has been really smart on everything having to do the balance sheet just how much they could potentially reduce their fortress $8.9 trillion of holdings as well as of course what that means in terms of the equivalent rate cut that at 2 p.m. are hike I should say I've gotten accustomed to the past however many years of rate cuts And at 2 p.m. eastern grant Thornton said swank and Guggenheim Scott miner will be with us Scott minor has been really vocal about his concern about froth in the market about something that seems more late stage than early stage and finally former New York fed president Bill Dudley and BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg join us following chairman Powell's news conference John So much uncertainty One of the most important meetings they'll have in terms of guiding for the year ahead I brilliant lineup coming up through the next couple of hours on Bloomberg TV and radio We're just here a long for the ride Mike McKee is driving Mike McKee joins us right now Mike What do you expect from this one Well it's kind of funny John because Lisa called us a really important meeting and in a way it is It's a complete change in direction for the fed However if Jay Powell has his way it's not going to be very exciting They're going to tell us what the market already anticipates that they're not raising rates this meeting that we have hit maximum employment and we are well over the fed's target and inflation So a rate move is appropriate in the near future the hint is that it would be in March And that they will at some point to start to shrink the balance sheet by letting securities roll off but they haven't made any decisions about how they're going to do that or when they're going to do that The real interesting question is going to be what kind of guidance do they give us about the future for the last two years It's been watch for maximum employment and watch where inflation goes we've hit those two markers So what are the markers that tells the fed what they're going to do next Right now Matthew liszt with us with Deutsche Bank we're thrilled that he could join us this morning Matt was Eddie in honor of justice breyer I'm going to take the ethos of breyer and bring it over to Powell All would agree that Steven breyer was the pragmatic justice of his generation How pragmatic will Jerome Powell be today and in which way will chairman Powell be pragmatic Sure I think you have as you note a very pragmatic chair that is dealing with a difficult communication challenge at this point which is you have an economy with well above target inflation You have an economy that the unemployment rate has fallen below the view of nehru growth is well above target or well above potential But you have a disconnect with where monetary policy is at the moment Keep in mind they are still adding to their portfolio at that moment And they'll continue to do so through March even though they will be signaling that essentially they've met the conditions for liftoff And he's doing so with a backdrop of a quite volatile financial market response that we've seen over recent weeks I think ultimately pragmatism here tells you that despite the volatility that we've seen the fed has to continue It's hawkish pivot They'll continue to signal a rate hike likely in March They'll continue to signal that QT will come later this year And that the fed will be quite nimble in responding to this ever changing economy What about the sense today We brought it up earlier and fascinated by if everybody's.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Got central bankers around the world either actually raising rates or talking about actively raising rates next year into 2023 yeah I look at the ten year and it hasn't really moved If anything it's even come in a little bit What's going on there I read Jersey He's a chief U.S. interest rate strategist for Bloomberg intelligence Irish shouldn't I see that rates rise here What's going on Well rates are rising Just front end rates that are rising So you look at what's happened to the two year yield over the last couple of weeks and months And you've seen that increase from September at 20 basis points all the way up to near 70 basis points So that's a 50 basis point increase in the last couple of months So keep in mind everyone looks at the ten year as the benchmark but the ten year is going to be reflective of the all of the potential rate outcomes for the fed over the next decade So the market in part might be pricing the Federal Reserve hiking to one and a half percent in staying there And I think that's the expectation that some people have And we have the question whether or not the market is maybe mispricing that a little bit And I concur with you that yields do look a little bit low given the inflationary environment and what the central banks globally are likely to do over the next couple of years Speaking of the next couple of years Ira I'm wondering about the shape of the yield curve What are the expectations for the longer term rates And are you worried about a flattening here further Well I'm not worried about a flattening In fact that's our expectation and it's not unusual when central banks are tightening monetary policy We probably will see significant yield curve and continued yield curve flattening going into 2022 We're expecting the two year yield to get up well above 1% and we think as that occurs you will see the ten year yield start to move a little bit higher And in fact we're looking out kind of crystal ball in 2023 That's the type of time period when we might see the two year ten year yield curve get very very close to zero I know a lot of people will say well that's a signal that the economy is going to slow and that the stock market might not do good blah blah blah That's true to some extent but there's also a pretty long time lag in between when those actions may happen And so the question is and I think this is the thing that the market the rates market is struggling with is will the Federal Reserve try to avoid that by maybe hiking three four or 5 times stopping for a long time waiting for the economy to catch up maybe waiting for real growth to continue to pick up a little bit before they hike again But of course there's so many variables that will go into that decision that it's hard to handicap that So I think that what the market is doing is it's pricing right now a probability of the Federal Reserve only hiking a few times and then either waiting or maybe even easing policy say in 2024 but then there's another thing that it's pricing too Another part of the probability distribution was that they do hike and they keep hiking to above 2% which is the Bloomberg economics team's forecast and I concur with that kind of idea that they're going to probably hike a little bit more than the markets currently pricing That's kind of where I wanted to go Ira I mean it just seems like this is being fairly well telegraphed by this Federal Reserve And I'm wondering are they taken out the risk that they could be more aggressive because a lot of folks have told me is one sure way to end this party that we're all enjoying here in the equity markets over the past several years and that's the fed being too aggressive and really surprising the market Is that a risk still Well I think it would be hard for them at this point to surprise the market because the market is still pricing nearly even odds of them actually hiking in March I think that march hike is probably a little bit too early but hike and May or June I think is certainly in the cards at this point And if the markets held up with the expectation of that now the question is not look I'm not an equity person but if the equity market is looking at the rates market they should be saying hey we are going to see tighter monetary policy come the middle of 2022 at the latest and at the same time And I think this might be the big surprise So if you're worried Paul and looking for something to worry about for risk assets it's that I think that the Federal Reserve will start to unwind its balance sheet So it's going to start to reduce the amount of actual dollars that it printed in the form of bank reserves very early in this process So I don't think that they're going to wait 18 months two years like they did the last cycle I think that they start to run off probably in the summer of next year So maybe in June or July or September of next year I think they'll start reducing their balance sheet And I think that might have the impetus of potentially spooking risk asset markets a little bit So spooking risk asset markets you have Scott miner saying that there's a risk of a recession in 2023 What is a flatter yield curve really saying here Ira Well the flatter yield curve isn't looking necessarily only at the economics right So and the ten year yield is certainly and the 30 year yield being under 2% is certainly telling you that they are worried about longer term growth prospects And frontend yields are going to be reflective of monetary policy So a flatter yield curve is just telling you that the market is not expecting a significant boon in growth where still pricing massively negative real yields So that's.