17 Burst results for "Scott Miner"

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:33 min | Last month

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now both Sweeney and Matt Miller. All right, great, Jared. Good stuff. We appreciate it. You know Matt was just calling out here and I end screen the Bloomberg index browser, Bloomberg, U.S. corporate, total return value year to date. -14.6%. Treasuries too, -14.8. I mean, what's going on? And that does in total return. So not that it would have mattered because the coupons are so low, man. Yes. But it's harsh. And look, my mom and dad just retired. This month and I feel for them. I guess I'm going to have to step up. Sure. Is there broke now? You know? All right, Liz McCormick, global fixed income on foreign exchange reporter joins us live here in a Bloomberg, you know, I have to broker studio. So Liz, again, these are numbers. These are performance numbers. Your Friends in a fixed income market have ever seen? Never seen? Yeah, I mean, some of the data how you splice and dice it is like at least the worst first half and kind of modern times call it. I was mentioning to Matt that Deutsche Bank had some great data back to the 1700s, like how bad it was. I mean, people just aren't, most people aren't used to this kind of beating up in bonds. I mean, do people in fixed income today? They try to call the bottom like we hear equity. Investors try to call the Bacchus. Yeah, and this is where I feel like I see the same dichotomy going on as you guys are talking all about and stocks, you know, is this like a bear rally? Is it over? Same thing in bonds. People saying, oh, we've seen the peak and yields, you know, all the fed pricing for hikes is in there, the worst is over. And then other people saying, um, wait a minute, you know? Like 3.5 on the ten year was the highest we've seen, but like, listen, you know, I've been around for a while like the folks at Bridgewater have said to me a few times. We think rates go a lot higher, ten year could go to 4% or more. You know, fed is just got a lot more tightening to do. So there is these battles, I think, in both asset classes, you know? We'll see who wins in the end, right? Maybe next year sometime. I met a guy over the weekend, 83 years old, fascinating guy, and he watches and listens to us every day. He trades bonds every night. So at the end of the day, he'll make a trade, put on a position and then the next day. No one, nobody does that, right? Nobody does that. My father, who I've been doing this for so long, still says to me, can you explain to me again? What a bond is, you know what I mean? All the bond traders, I know all the guys I know who worked in firms on the street have long since retired or quit. Right, exactly. I remember my old boss ward McCarthy saying, years back when there was yield saying, I bought, you know, zero coupons, ages ago, and that put my kids through college. You know, like what used to be such great rates and those are just gone. Well, actually, Scott miner did say he's buying the strips, right? 20 years. Which is kind of jargony, but I guess when you strip out the coupon, you can trade the maturities, and then you can also trade each due date of the coupon. It's like a bullet, you know? It's just like a single coupon, in a sense, just what you get at the end. But yeah, they're stripping and I saw that. And we'll see, I mean, if we were in this era that we're never going to get rates too high again, which I'm not sure I buy into yet. People who bought strips or locked in tens at over 3% are going to be pretty happy if in a couple of years the feds fighting in a recession cutting rates again. Is that, by the way, kind of a consensus that the fed is going to raise rates high enough to fight inflation because now they have to. That's they're locked in and not only is it one of their actual mandates. And then we're going to have a recession in 2023 and they're going to have to cut right back down again. Well, I would say the timing of the recession gets nebulous. A lot of people say late 2023, I've heard a few say, maybe there's enough cash in the system corporations are much better. It could be 2024, but I think in general Matt, you're right that it's fast up front loaded quick and then the fed is going to have to eventually not too long be cutting rates again because they're trying to manage in pal said he's gone from, you know, like soft landing soft dish to saying, well, we could have a slow. He's trying, but you raise rates this fast, and I know there's not a lot of floating rate debt out there, but I have a home equity line of credit. And I was like, oh, they raised that rate pretty darn fast. You know what I mean? And not only that. Joel levington wrote a piece about the automakers. Now they're facing a $145 billion wall of debt. And it's not like, you know, they can just hold it. Right. They're constantly rolling over. So now they're going to look at 250, 300 basis points of increased cost. This, by the way, adds to inflation because they've got to pass that along to the customer, but it's tough for companies as well. Yeah, I think everyone, you're going to feel this very quickly. Now the fed said, we're really watching financial conditions, which is kind of nebulous, you know, how tight do they have to get, you know, not just what's the hard rate, the fed funds has to get to, but that's what they're watching. How does this filter through, look at mortgage rates over 6%. You know, they seem like so low for so long. The housing market has an imploded yet, but for once, not that I'm looking to buy, but you see on Zillow finally, price reduction. We didn't see that forever. So I think it's going to be no sale. I know people who wanted to sell and now they can't so they got to rent. Yeah, and you know what rents are crazy, right? Going up in price, the leases up, I've heard so many people complaining, oh, the lounge putting up my rank 25. Rent is too damn high. The rent is too damn high. So if you move, is that another reason to move the Austin Texas or? I don't think pricing is good in Austin Texas. I don't think it is either. You don't get a special rates because it's Texas. So where do you have to go? Columbus, Ohio. It's a great place to live in very affordable. People are just wonderful. And they play football. No accent. It's the only place in the country where there's absolutely no regional accents. They use people from the great state of Ohio often for newscasters. And Matt Miller, case in point. All right, Liz McCormick. Thanks so much for joining us, Liz McCormack. She covers all things global fixed income, foreign exchange reporters. She does it all for Bloomberg news and most important. She is in the Bloomberg director broker studio today, so we appreciate that. Looking at these markets here, just a little bit of red on the screen, not going to oversell here

Bloomberg Liz McCormick Matt fed Matt Miller ward McCarthy Scott miner Sweeney Jared Deutsche Bank Bridgewater Liz Joel levington U.S. pal
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:42 min | Last month

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The target range for the federal funds rate to one and a half to one and three quarters percent Former Richmond fed president Jeffrey lacker says more is needed I think it's going to have to go to about 5 and a half or 6% It's my own sense and that's based on just the historical record that indicates that real interest rates inflation adjusted short term policy rates have to get above zero in order to have any chance of restraining inflation Former fed bank of Richmond president Jeffrey lacker says the fed should have raised rates last year Well this rate hike John now has many on Wall Street forecasting a recession for the U.S. economy we caught up with Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott minard There's a chance that we are already in a recession And so if we are in a recession or we're close to a recession and the fed pushes on this more and then we find that all of a sudden we have a decline in asset prices like stocks did in 87 then if the fed reverses course they're going to look like they're weak on inflation So this is a very very tough situation that we're maneuvering Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott miner says cracks are forming in the credit world he says the worst is probably not over And to enter the fed now it's the Bank of England's decision investors and economists are betting the UK Central Bank would deliver a 5th straight hike later this morning raising the base rate by 25 basis points to a 13 year high of 1.25% The former Bank of England governor Mark garney says he thinks policymakers are falling behind real world events I think what's clear.

Jeffrey lacker fed Former fed bank of Richmond Scott minard Guggenheim Richmond Scott miner Bank of England John U.S. governor Mark garney
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:46 min | Last month

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"30 on Wall Street good morning I'm John Tucker I'm Nathan Hager we're about four hours away from the open of U.S. trading Let's get you up to date on the news you need to know at this hour the post fed rate hike rally appears over U.S. futures are sliding following yesterday's gains which halted a 5 day 10% route in the S&P Jay Powell and the fed lifted rate 75 basis points of the biggest increase since 1994 Former Richmond fed president Jeffrey lacker says policymakers now face the real reality of a recession They dropped a critical sentence indicating they're not certain they can do this soft landing That's an indication that they think they're running the risk of a recession Former Richmond fed president Jeffrey lacker says rates need to go up to 6% to have any chance of restraining inflation At Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott miner says the market is obsessed with inflation Every time we get another bad piece of news on inflation which is higher than expectation then we're forcing the fed to ratchet up their pace or the degree of tightening that they're doing Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott miner says there are cracks appearing in the credit world and the worst is probably not over The Swiss national bank unexpectedly raised interest rates John for the first time since 2007 policymakers opted to join the global bandwagon of monetary tightening lifting the rate by 50 basis points the policy rate to zero or negative 0.25% And we'll hear from the Bank of England at about 90 minutes from now economists forecasted the BOE will deliver a 5th straight rate hike In corporate news it's a big day for Twitter and Elon Musk Let's get more live from Bloomberg's we need a young good morning granita Good morning Nathan Elon Musk is addressing Twitter.

Jeffrey lacker Nathan Hager Scott miner Jay Powell Richmond fed fed John Tucker U.S. Guggenheim Richmond Swiss national bank BOE John Elon Musk Twitter Bloomberg Nathan Elon Musk
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:56 min | Last month

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Great line I've gone into this news conference That news conference with chairman Powell starts in about 21 minutes time So Patrizia the head of U.S. rates strategy is soc genes with us now too So Patrick I love you if you want all of this just first of all your reaction to the fed decision from ten minutes ago So I think the fed definitely caught up with the market pricing of rate hikes for the next couple of years So that was a little bit more than I had expected I thought that they would be a little bit more gradual in catching up to the markets market pricing of effects for the next couple of years But you know what I think that they said they're going to move expeditiously and they've kind of stuck to their work They're trying to not be in the same situation at the next meeting where they think catch up So they're basically laid down the path if you will for the next couple of years The question is if they'll be able to deliver on the path that they've laid out for the next couple of years that we get to the end of the year we start seeing a meaningful sort of growth The consumer starts to buckle will they be able to deliver great hearts at the pace at which they have kind of laid out for the next couple of years This is a tough one So forgive me for asking git and I know there's a lot of work to do with the news conference to work some of this stuff out and for the next few weeks as well What should a degree of confidence around the idea that we might have seen a peak in yields is this it So that's a very interesting question I think that my view coming into this meeting to be honest with you is that ten yields would probably stay anywhere between I'd say two 75 and three 50 for the remainder of the year I think that that sort of scenario still makes sense to me Because a lot of this is going to get priced in the very front end of the curve so I could perhaps see the two year part of the yield to a yield start to rise The ten year could still be relatively range farm because the long end is going to be much more reactive to what happens on the recession front on the consumer front on the growth front So that's really what the long end is going to be much more focused on So I think the moves in the long end are going to be somewhat mirror and I can see potential for the yield curve to continue to flatten and perhaps even in Bert a lot more from here on Scott do you agree by long bonds I agree I think sabara has hit the nail on the head If my scenario which is this weakening economy is going to catch the fed off guard we have we're sitting at the peak or close to the peak in long-term rates And our internal models just in the last week or so have flipped from favoring bond or to two favoring long bonds today over owning stocks And bonds have really underperformed early on here In the year and especially long duration And I think now is the time that you have to be in extending your duration and investing in longer dated securities Sumatra one argument for buying riskier assets particularly a riskier credit has been that the credit quality of companies will remain strong that they have a lot of cash They have refinanced a lot of their debt Things are going to be okay Does that still hold water given a 4% terminal FUD funds rate or perhaps 3.8% as the fed's own projections hold That's a very good question And I think that's yet to be proven to be the case So far we're not seeing any sort of signs of defaults rising We're not really that concerned about corporate profit margins They're still somewhat healthy for the most part but 6 months when the fed funds rate is above 3% I think it will be a very very different picture at that point So at least between now and the time that the fed is continuing to raise rates I think the bias is going to be towards modesty spreads across the corporate bond spectrum I'm really on television and historic moment Bloomberg surveillance here with the fed decides and I can just tell you it's almost goosebumps when you look back at the history of this Scott miner let's go all Michael Musa in the great rudiger Dorian bush here It's all about the dollar at the end of the day It's the deepest part of the global system as we speak Euro breaks down I know there's a little bit of other story there as well under a one O four What does the dollar signal to do How should our listeners and our viewers use the dollar is a tool to guess to make that inflation path Well I think that the dollar strengthening is obviously good for inflation But Tom it's introducing a lot of other risks in the system Huge international risks Right And you look at Japan We have yield turf control and the yen depreciating rapidly And you know I always tell people you can't control interest rates and your exchange rate at the same time You've got to pick one or the other And the bank of Japan is facing a bit of a crisis here because with the yen at one 35 there are going to accept a lot more inflation or they're going to have to adjust yield curve And model Columbia I mean it's simple This is trilemma one O one and yes each trilemma is there What is Powell's trilemma in this press conference today besides explaining away Esther George's shock descent I think that Powell is going to have a hard time trying to explain to people that we can go down this interest rate path that they're outlining and that we are not going to find ourselves in some kind of recession or financial accident I think it's inevitable Okay but what's so critical here to me at least is the headline John I'm sorry I don't have it in front of me The headline here John of inflation 9 ish now am I right John coming down to 5 ish fastest I mean perhaps Tom perhaps The rate of change based on what time How much work do they need to do to get there Minor and I didn't live this when we lived 9% inflation It didn't move that fast It's that simple No that's and by the way we have never had a period where inflation has come down by more than 2% without having a recession So if those numbers are real and that's what they're going to do if that's going to what happened we are destined for research John pick it up please My ears wearing Dodger blue I can't concert I'm just trying to speak at a great penis over a pgim on the Bloomberg He just wrote and he said too soon for bonds too soon for credit getting close on bonds but more price downside spreads are too tight Scott I'd love your thoughts on that Spreads are too tight If you look at things based on spreads spreads are not as wide as they were back in late 2018 when the fed was pushing really really hard and most people assume too hard This time they're doing a whole lot more inflation is in a very Committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective It's a better I'd love you if you want this If they are committed to returning inflation to a 2% objective are they committed to causing some economic pain in this labor market It sure looks like it And to your point about Diane swamp.

fed chairman Powell sabara Patrizia Scott miner Michael Musa rudiger Dorian bush Patrick Bert U.S. Esther George Scott Powell Japan Tom
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:15 min | 2 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Also the comments from China's premier dica Chang the country suffering from the strains of COVID and the premier urging officials to try to stabilize growth they seem to be key drivers also in markets although actually we did see the CSI 300 gaming along with the Shanghai and Shenzhen comps both this morning As for the FX space Bloomberg told us what index is softer this morning the Euro flat a one spot zero 8 and the offshore yuan now down 7 tenths of 1% That is a pretty big radio business flash that his Stephen cowher with the old today's top stories good morning Morning Caroline and we'll start with that story from China and China's Premier Li keqiang saying the country is facing stronger economic headwinds and at the start of the pandemic in 2020 his emphasis on growth seen as an acknowledgment that China could find it tough to meet its target while remaining committed to president Xi's zero COVID policy Elon Musk is dropping plans to partially fund his purchase of Twitter with a margin loan tied to his Tesla stake and exchange filing revealing he's increasing the size of the deal's equity component to 33 and a half $1 billion The new structure could reduce the risk of the deal for both Musk and his lander Tesla's share price has sunk by around 40% since Musk first announced his stake in Twitter in early April Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says the social media giant could lose significant amounts of money in the next few years as it invests heavily in the metaverse At a shareholders meeting he said the project will eventually generate cash from a creator economy with businesses selling virtual goods and services However until then the company's batting on revenue growth from its Instagram reels short form video service And Guggenheim's partner's chief investment officer chief investment officer Scott miner says that Bitcoin and any cryptocurrency have not established themselves as a credible institutional investment We were probably going to hit $8000 before What was that number 8000 until we totally flush So you have what's going on No I mean if I were I'd be short Mine had had a December 2020 that Bitcoin would eventually climb to $400,000 Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists.

dica Chang COVID China Stephen cowher Li keqiang president Xi Tesla Musk Shenzhen Bloomberg Elon Musk Shanghai Caroline Twitter Mark Zuckerberg Scott miner Meta
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:00 min | 3 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Get close to the 2% target it's very likely that we will have some kind of an economic slowdown Well before we get to the desired inflation target Scott miner sees further hikes of 50 basis points on the table for June and July former Philly fed president Charles plosser also weighing in He says Powell was trying to appease markets and should not have taken a 75 basis point hike off the table live in New York I'm John Tucker Bloomberg daybreak All right John thanks Now we're waiting for another important policy decision this morning in Europe Let's get the very latest on that live from Bloomberg's max Ramsey Good morning max Morning to you Nathan I'm Karen less than an hour to go until the rate decision from the Bank of England markets are pricing in a fourth back to back hike This would take the benchmark policy rate to 1% That's the highest since 2009 but also very much in focus any details of how the BOE intends to unwind more than a decade of bond purchases live in London max Ramsey Bloomberg daybreak Right max thank you There's also an OPEC meeting today OPEC and its allies are expected to ratify another small increase in oil production Their meeting comes just one day after the EU announced its plan for a phased ban on Russian crude and checking prices right now Crude oil is higher up to tenths of a percent or 16 cents at a $107 98 cents a barrel Brand is up four tens percent at a $110 61 cents Oil prices at historic highs Karen have lawmakers pointing to antitrust laws at OPEC a key Senate committee is expected to approve legislation that would allow the U.S. to sue the cartel for manipulating energy markets This vote by the Senate Judiciary Committee today would pave the way for full Senate consideration I was staying in the oil patch Nathan Warren Buffett is increasing his bet on one big energy company and we get the latest lie from Bloomberg's ranita young Good morning ready to good morning Karen Berkshire Hathaway had already built up a roughly 14.6% holding of Occidental Petroleum's common stock Now Buffett is snapping up about 5.9 million more shares of the oil giant A filing shows the shares were bought this week at prices ranging from about 56 to $58 apiece And right now it's trading close to $62 this morning Occidental was the best performing stock in the S&P 500 during the first quarter And it's seen its shares benefit from Buffett's purchases and higher oil prices driven by the war in Ukraine Live in New York I'm renita young Bloomberg daybreak All right we need to thanks Let's turn to what's happening on the ground in Ukraine now Civilian evacuations continue out of the war ravaged city of mariupol In his latest video address president Vladimir zelensky says 344 people have gotten out of it as heavy fighting continues at a steel plant in the city The Pentagon says Russia is getting bogged down in eastern and southern Ukraine And Sweden's foreign minister met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken She says the U.S. is offering security assurances to Sweden and Finland as they apply to join NATO While the other big political story we continue to follow Nathan is abortion rights the head of the CDC doctor Rochelle Walensky is weighing in and she warns a more deaths if the link Supreme Court ruling on roe V wade stands Bloomberg said Baxter has more Doctor walensky says she fears that there could be an atmosphere where there's much less medical supervision for people taking things into their own hands and she says it will lead to unequal access to the procedure because people with less funds will not be able to cross state lines tied to that Abortion rights groups took over $12 million over the 24 hours following the leak of the initial roe V wade decision draft and Planned Parenthood says it saw a 650% increase in online actions in San Francisco I met Baxter Bloomberg daybreak All right Ed thanks His futures move lower We check your local headlines next plus sports This is Bloomberg At 6 O 7 on Wall Street where 58° in Central Park still dealing with that accident and old country road in westbury tractor.

OPEC Scott miner Philly fed Charles plosser max Ramsey max Ramsey Bloomberg Bloomberg John Tucker Senate Judiciary Committee Nathan Warren Buffett Karen Occidental Ukraine Karen Berkshire Hathaway
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:33 min | 3 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Forward but it's also the way that they made money They didn't do it from adding customers They did it from charging the customers A lot of it to do with higher pricing What lift is doing in terms of spending money is it's trying to get more supply IE more drivers If it gets more drivers it has less surge pricing it's cheaper for the customers And it's also easier for the customers to get fed Well tumble also dragged Uber down and that's despite the latter reporting a positive outlook for earnings in the current quarter UberSuggest plans to capitalize on robust ride demand without compromising profits Uber said it will focus on product changes rather than incentives to address the driver shortage and a quick check of those stocks after ours lift off about 29% Uber off about four and three quarter percent in the late session Let's check in on market action now Brian Curtis is in Los Angeles Let's begin with the fed I think that's where we've got to start right And this dovishness is it too much to say that it was dovishness from Powell Well it's complicated You know as we've been saying it's both hawkish and dovish I suppose I mean it's a hawkish move that the fed is making delivering a 50 basis point hike the most you know in 22 years and saying that it would continue hiking at that pace But as you had pointed out and as Ben emmons pointed out the other day the market was starting to tilt toward expecting a 75 basis point hike in June And getting much faster to the neutral rate And what Powell said obviously was that they weren't considering 75 so that seems a little dovish However it's still only just part of the process of getting to where the fed wants to go which is a hawkish move So I see it as a little bit both The market had probably gotten ahead of itself And I think as your last guest said it may have been a shrewd way of Powell to tell the markets that look you're overdoing things a little bit And of course they reserve the right to come in and supposedly correct this later if they say if they kind of re explain what pal meant to say because it was a little different what he said in the Q&A than what was said in the statement which was a written statement earlier So that's what I say It's kind of complicated I know you know that What's interesting is that there are still plenty of people out there who think that the fed should not be this aggressive And one was and we had them on right after the fed meeting The Dartmouth professor Danny blanchflower he was quite vociferous arguing against a hike at all saying that consumer confidence and investor confidence is falling so rapidly that the fed is just creating more problems more headwinds that it will have to work out later to correct In the form of turning around and starting to cut interest rates and a little bit was hinted about that from Scott miner just a moment ago So anyway it's a very interesting meeting and it's also important to note that the Hong Kong monetary authority raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points following the fed move That's an automatic for the HK MA It has to follow as the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. currency What's interesting is what the banks do And of course it's before the market opens So later this morning we'll be probably hearing more from the banks on what they plan to do I think I've used up all my time That's a look at markets Suffice it to say that we will probably continue with the rally in Asia today for those markets that are up and running Paul to you All right thanks Brian 35 past the now time for chick of global news And.

fed Brian Curtis Powell Ben emmons Danny blanchflower Los Angeles Scott miner Hong Kong monetary authority HK U.S. Asia Paul Brian
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:09 min | 3 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Do you think Diane that he wants to say that J pal wants to see 2% inflation before he stops raising rates I do And I think that's because of the environment we're in We do have some things that are on offset a strong dollar Makes is not the situation we had in the 1970s when the dollar was depreciating But we've got a global inflation environment and central banks around the world has been slow on the uptake because of the pandemic The one two punch of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine and then the fed citing the lockdowns in China as well I think they really are focused on how supply constrain this world is but that they can't look through those supply constraints They now have to deal with them And I think that's the reality we're dealing with Initially after the fed decision came out the reaction in markets was pretty quiet Things fluctuating around Now they're decidedly lower on the equity side as people parse through And I wondered on how much it has to do with exactly that point The fact that the risk factor with China lockdowns the risk factor even with the Ukraine war was to hire inflation and that was the emphasis more than slowing growth Exactly And I think the reality is we're talking about also the risk of stagflation abroad accelerating inflation even as they may contract in response to war in Ukraine That is an untenable situation in an sustainable situation And one in which the fed is a Central Bank to the world has to take into account as well 6 minutes to the press conference and Scott miner with Diane swag today Just thrilled at this guest list and we got great conversation for it after the press conference Michael of course in attendance Scott mine and you've been listening to this in a 5% unemployment rate or wherever it would have given economic contraction speaks to the politics of this fed You and I have studied mcchesney Martin Truman I believe it was mcchesney Martin and LBJ again in Vietnam How political does power have to be sensitive to the Washington process Well.

Ukraine fed Diane China Scott miner Diane swag Scott mine Central Bank mcchesney Martin Truman Michael mcchesney Martin Vietnam Washington
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:40 min | 5 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Scum and traders and simply spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into the mouth spit them out I am convinced that such a natural and necessary cleansing of society will only strengthen our country Putin accused the west of wanting to destroy Russia and this morning Russia's finance ministry said a $117 million interest payment due on $2 bonds had been made to Citibank in London Well Nathan another major story that we're watching this morning is the continued reaction to the fed's liftoff on interest rates and Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us live with the latest John Karen stock and bond investors had completely different reactions to the fed's quarter point rate increase Stocks rallied bonds sold off the 5 ten year treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since early 2020 That's a recessionary signal at Guggenheim partners chief investment officer Scott miner isn't all that impressed with how the fed is tackling inflation I think that the fed has largely abandoned monetary orthodoxy It's trying to be too cute And how it's managing this Guggenheim Scott minerd says they are in an inflation panic The Central Bank also published forecasts from the authorities various officials the so called dot plot that indicated a steeper hiking path than before Live in New York I'm John Tucker Bloomberg daybreak Thank you John Interest rates are also in focus in Europe Let's get that story live with Bloomberg's UN pots Good morning Ewan Good morning Nathan and Karen The Bank of England was the first major Central Bank to tighten policy after the pandemic And today committee members look all but certain to hike rates for a third successive time If they do that would take the UK benchmark back to its pre COVID level as the bank battles soaring inflation That decision at 8 a.m. Eastern Time live in London I'm Ewan prods been big daybreak All right you and thank you about turning to the markets now stocks in Asia jumped once again on a surge in Chinese technology shares We get the recap from Bloomberg Surely it's selling in Singapore Good morning Juliet Good morning Nathan and Karen China's effort to stabilize markets or the hang seng index posted its best two day gain since 1998 The hang seng tech index added to Wednesday's dizzying 22% gain However the index is still down more than 50% from its February 2021 peak owing to a yearlong crackdown on the sector The lift in Hong Kong and Chinese equity saw the MSCI Asia Pacific index rise over 3% And the yen hovered near a 6 year low boosting the nikkei two two 5 by three and a half percent That was its best two day gain since April 2020 in Singapore Juliette Sally Bloomberg daybreak All right Juliet thank you Despite the recent pullback one Wall Street firm says oil prices are heading a lot higher Let's get that storyline from Bloomberg's we need a young good morning Good morning Nathan Morgan Stanley is raising its Brent oil price forecast for the third quarter from a $100 to a $120 a barrel Analysts there are citing tighter supply demand balances worldwide Morgan Stanley says the U.S. import ban and self sanctioning in Europe mean Russian crude production will drop by 1 million barrels a day which will be visible from April onwards Analysts are raising their estimate for 2023 from $95 to a $100 a barrel live in New York I'm ranita young Bloomberg daybreak We need to thanks right now Flirting with a $100 a barrel trading at $99 44 cents Brent is at a $102 65 Straight ahead your latest local headlines and a check of sports this is Bloomberg And it's now 6 O 7 on Wall Street still dealing with some fog this morning 45° in.

fed John Tucker Bloomberg finance ministry John Karen Nathan Guggenheim partners Scott miner Guggenheim Scott minerd Russia Central Bank pandemic And today committee Citibank Putin Karen China London
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:30 min | 5 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"To 600,000 barrels a day We're asking the rest of the world to step up Production we should be stepping up production we're asking for the rest of the world to shut down any products that you're buying whether it be vodka or whether it be petroleum It's all the same The war in Ukraine also brings a new challenge for OPEC plus It meets Wednesday to discuss output Delegates said that the cartel will probably stick to its plan of only gradually increasing supply The European Union has agreed to ban 7 Russian banks from the swift financial messaging system but measure also themselves as a what this sanction is trying to achieve They're targeting across the board in Russia the elites whether it be those in business whether it's those who are known to be somewhat close to the Russian president at least in his orbit But some of them are yet to be targeted And the question is really more than that how much it filters down to the ordinary Russian consumer because what we're seeing is a real tightening of the screws on the economy across the board Meantime investors are cautioning about potential Russian retaliation against the sanctions Scott miner is a chief investment officer at Guggenheim investments He says that Russia is the highly likely to launch a cyberattack on the global financial system Mine had said if the Russians crippled the payment system it's going to seize up markets Senior analyst of investment strategy at center square investment management and we'll get to uma for her ideas about what to do with your money in the.

OPEC Ukraine European Union Russia Scott miner Guggenheim investments center square
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:36 min | 5 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"In fed officials reacting to Russia's invasion of the Ukraine and its economic implications The initial risk of reaction was quickly followed by a dip buying rebound fuses are pointing to some lingering investor caution this morning but happened pairing losses in the last few minutes Let's bring in that George February that had reached a K two asset management Georgia's help us make some sense of these market moves because you have reports of missiles flying into the key of area And that is by any stretch of the imagination and escalation in this conflict how do you allocate in a situation like this Yeah there are difficult of course As a farm manager in general broadly in the west it's hard to reconcile the logic of what Russia is doing but it's doing it It's a lightning speed and approaching the capital Attacking a step back very quickly let's look at the basics and that is corporate balance sheets in aggregate in the western world Credit conditions in the western world economic momentum has been slow but they caught a robust and that is why Tata politics flagged It's communicated QT starting and it's all priced into the market But the headwinds is where they concern is we buying future earnings inequities They're going to be impacted by the higher rate cycle That's obviously been priced in But obviously they jerk political events trade sanctioned lower GDP all things being equal globally and create concern on confidence notwithstanding wealth affects at the corporate household level in the western world They match a generation of highs So we've got those two opposing factors and as we work through this charting policy Yeah I mean with that backdrop we also heard from Scott miner from Guggenheim partners Here's what he wrote in a tweet as history demonstrates the beginning of war often leads to short term market volatility but quickly provides phenomenal buying opportunities look to use those current market dislocations to add to risk position in select securities and in cheap stocks Where are you making those additions George Yeah so day in markets that can handle earnings that are processing in a higher interest rate cycle in the developed world Quickly that meant Europe notwithstanding for obvious reasons the German economy has got more risk on cost input from energy than say France starts to come more diversification on intergeneration Let's say developed markets Southeast Asia Aussie North America is still the place to be And within that the pre ride hike cycle and the beginning of a right high cycle traditionally is very good for commodities right across the board from metals more cyclical metals bulk commodities and energy We are overweight that going into the pre rate early stage cycle and geopolitical a little bit more And some diversified financials tend to benefit as well in that state That's the equity player very quickly Let's pivot senior secured investment grade corporate credit They're very good conditions from all these reasons very good stimulus last two years That's a place to be Beware of duration risk high yield emerging markets That's where the damage will be first and foremost in the year ahead Straight to the point I like that George should we saw treasuries erase the earlier gains when Christopher Waller spoke of move in early March was still fully an option as far as he was concerned if the economic data comes in hot how do you sort of structure the trade around that and more importantly are you an agreement with sort of a front loaded approach by the fed Yeah I would like to say more measured approach at 25 We love to see two three year period to get to two 25 two and a half the slower pace We don't want to see anything that resembles 1994 the right sky from fed funds going from fib 90 94 to a march 95 going from 3% to 6 Front loaded cracked pain and the brake just puts it just too much for the economy Conditions are good work with it that communicate is the market they want a real right for fed funds at zero therefore two and a half things raising about the next 24 to 36 months Let's get there in a steady fashion notwithstanding there's many notable people making it very clear to our participants If I manage it in the market then I 50 was a possibility With a geopolitical one would think just be cautious on the sentiment headwind and just start the 21st start your QT and let's get going from there The market can handle a U.S. ten year at two 25 with a slowing but economic conditions where they are quite robust at slowing I look at some of the overnight index swaps and what I'm seeing is a 14% chance of a 50 bit move come early March The question remains though after maybe we sail through the first half of the year there's that prospect of stagflation is very real in Europe and it's even going to be very real in the United States Where can I find a place to kind of protect myself from what could be a new shock to the market A reality check Yeah well technical equities And again some diversified financial some industrial but very much commodity producers Obviously gold as a hedge people discuss crypto Let's put that aside and just as a statement And then high quality infrastructure low geared assets or diversified mixed use property in the western world is that also a good inflation hedge that is control on those rents going forward Mixes for the cave I'll just unload it very quickly across but they are traditional hedges As you're getting inflation risk notwithstanding again the second half of this year it's possible for highly improbable although the index works to get a 7 8% year on year CPI print Given the way the basket works again the inflation risks to be at 7 8% second half of the year just doesn't say probably the way the index works But there are some issues there And again we can single out in a development of the German economy will have to deal with more margin pressure from energy It's chosen gas as a transitional fuel for 2040 That fuel to be transitional for the ASG requirement that puts a lot of burden on that economy or things being equal And that is why the French earnings if I was going to single them out look at the better as a diversified George great counting up Thank you for making it to the program That story before I received the head of research at K two asset management I want to circle back to some highlights from the dislocations across global markets specifically in this part of the world in the Middle East where we saw the EGX getting absolutely smack down to 3.6% Dropping for a third day the move was the biggest since falling 4.8% on March 1820 20 a heavyweight commercial international bank contributing the most to the index has declined You have a rascal develop in Egypt They had a large drop as well about 10.6% but you can see the pain extended to the rest of the parameter including turkey with losses of 8.2% in the Saudi exchange it was a story of just about 2% declines and Dubai exposed of course because of its integration into the global economy via tourism logistics and trade And sort of capital flows coming under pressure as well I want to get to the reserve bank of New Zealand now because they are sticking with the rate hike course even as the Ukraine crisis complicates the outlook for Central Bank officials The governor Adrian orr he's weighed in and he told Bloomberg that the tensions in Eastern Europe only add to the upside risks for inflation In terms of early considerations but they're all in terms of the economic implications both in the very short term and more medium term are still all under the direction of supply being constrained these large rises were seen in commodity prices and hence feeding through into general consumer price inflation They're all upward and so you know we feel certainly at the resume bank convinced that we need to do more to contain inflation here And these one off upward price pressures really add to the risk of inflation expectations getting away What about the risk that this surge in oil prices doesn't just die back down I think a lot of people that were expecting that until we saw Russia actually attack Ukraine This looks like it's not going away in a matter of days In that case if New Zealand consumers and businesses are facing higher energy costs is there some risk.

Scott miner Guggenheim partners Here Russia Christopher Waller fed George Ukraine Tata Europe Southeast Asia Georgia North America U.S. France
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:56 min | 6 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Your NASDAQ bouncing back 2.5 Way better for the chairman than to see the red and the volatility we've seen what two three days in a row down to about one 32 p.m. right now Granted a lift into the close the last couple days but it's a very good tape for the chairman of the support meeting is upon us And looking for some guidance Tom is that garnish in line with the consensus Where do you think the consensus is right now TK four hikes Balance sheet reduction later this year What is it now No I think the consensus is Mike McKee at a better lunch than we had and you know he's going to move towards a press conference What I would say the consensus is how many dissents were there'll be What would be the debate and will we see action this meeting And that's a raging debate right now Is this a day for descent Lisa when we listen to the fed speak leading into this one And everybody on all spectrums of this Federal Reserve right now seems to be on the same page Descents from what I mean what decisions are they actually going to make at this point It sends from the trajectory of the guidance to send from some kind of end to the balance sheet reduction Honestly I'm curious to know what concrete steps will actually signal versus just basically saying they're watching the data and they're going to remain vigilant Let's wait through this price action for you We have a bit of bounce back a rally into the decision and that's that cassette by 2.4% the S&P by 1.5% We have done a lot of work in this bond market since this Federal Reserve last met Ten year yields one 78 to the FX market Euro dollar one 1293 We are down about a tenth of 1% on that currency pair and Lisa maybe this is a problem Crews back up again 87 57 crude up 2.3% What exactly is transitory when you have crude rising when you've got rents rising when you've got wages rising and coming up as we parse through all of these details we kick the conversation off with Deutsche Bank's Matthew luze Eddie has been really smart on everything having to do the balance sheet just how much they could potentially reduce their fortress $8.9 trillion of holdings as well as of course what that means in terms of the equivalent rate cut that at 2 p.m. are hike I should say I've gotten accustomed to the past however many years of rate cuts And at 2 p.m. eastern grant Thornton said swank and Guggenheim Scott miner will be with us Scott minor has been really vocal about his concern about froth in the market about something that seems more late stage than early stage and finally former New York fed president Bill Dudley and BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg join us following chairman Powell's news conference John So much uncertainty One of the most important meetings they'll have in terms of guiding for the year ahead I brilliant lineup coming up through the next couple of hours on Bloomberg TV and radio We're just here a long for the ride Mike McKee is driving Mike McKee joins us right now Mike What do you expect from this one Well it's kind of funny John because Lisa called us a really important meeting and in a way it is It's a complete change in direction for the fed However if Jay Powell has his way it's not going to be very exciting They're going to tell us what the market already anticipates that they're not raising rates this meeting that we have hit maximum employment and we are well over the fed's target and inflation So a rate move is appropriate in the near future the hint is that it would be in March And that they will at some point to start to shrink the balance sheet by letting securities roll off but they haven't made any decisions about how they're going to do that or when they're going to do that The real interesting question is going to be what kind of guidance do they give us about the future for the last two years It's been watch for maximum employment and watch where inflation goes we've hit those two markers So what are the markers that tells the fed what they're going to do next Right now Matthew liszt with us with Deutsche Bank we're thrilled that he could join us this morning Matt was Eddie in honor of justice breyer I'm going to take the ethos of breyer and bring it over to Powell All would agree that Steven breyer was the pragmatic justice of his generation How pragmatic will Jerome Powell be today and in which way will chairman Powell be pragmatic Sure I think you have as you note a very pragmatic chair that is dealing with a difficult communication challenge at this point which is you have an economy with well above target inflation You have an economy that the unemployment rate has fallen below the view of nehru growth is well above target or well above potential But you have a disconnect with where monetary policy is at the moment Keep in mind they are still adding to their portfolio at that moment And they'll continue to do so through March even though they will be signaling that essentially they've met the conditions for liftoff And he's doing so with a backdrop of a quite volatile financial market response that we've seen over recent weeks I think ultimately pragmatism here tells you that despite the volatility that we've seen the fed has to continue It's hawkish pivot They'll continue to signal a rate hike likely in March They'll continue to signal that QT will come later this year And that the fed will be quite nimble in responding to this ever changing economy What about the sense today We brought it up earlier and fascinated by if everybody's.

Mike McKee fed Lisa chairman Powell Matthew luze Eddie Guggenheim Scott miner Scott minor president Bill Jeff Rosenberg Steven breyer Deutsche Bank Jay Powell grant Thornton swank Tom
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:40 min | 8 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Got central bankers around the world either actually raising rates or talking about actively raising rates next year into 2023 yeah I look at the ten year and it hasn't really moved If anything it's even come in a little bit What's going on there I read Jersey He's a chief U.S. interest rate strategist for Bloomberg intelligence Irish shouldn't I see that rates rise here What's going on Well rates are rising Just front end rates that are rising So you look at what's happened to the two year yield over the last couple of weeks and months And you've seen that increase from September at 20 basis points all the way up to near 70 basis points So that's a 50 basis point increase in the last couple of months So keep in mind everyone looks at the ten year as the benchmark but the ten year is going to be reflective of the all of the potential rate outcomes for the fed over the next decade So the market in part might be pricing the Federal Reserve hiking to one and a half percent in staying there And I think that's the expectation that some people have And we have the question whether or not the market is maybe mispricing that a little bit And I concur with you that yields do look a little bit low given the inflationary environment and what the central banks globally are likely to do over the next couple of years Speaking of the next couple of years Ira I'm wondering about the shape of the yield curve What are the expectations for the longer term rates And are you worried about a flattening here further Well I'm not worried about a flattening In fact that's our expectation and it's not unusual when central banks are tightening monetary policy We probably will see significant yield curve and continued yield curve flattening going into 2022 We're expecting the two year yield to get up well above 1% and we think as that occurs you will see the ten year yield start to move a little bit higher And in fact we're looking out kind of crystal ball in 2023 That's the type of time period when we might see the two year ten year yield curve get very very close to zero I know a lot of people will say well that's a signal that the economy is going to slow and that the stock market might not do good blah blah blah That's true to some extent but there's also a pretty long time lag in between when those actions may happen And so the question is and I think this is the thing that the market the rates market is struggling with is will the Federal Reserve try to avoid that by maybe hiking three four or 5 times stopping for a long time waiting for the economy to catch up maybe waiting for real growth to continue to pick up a little bit before they hike again But of course there's so many variables that will go into that decision that it's hard to handicap that So I think that what the market is doing is it's pricing right now a probability of the Federal Reserve only hiking a few times and then either waiting or maybe even easing policy say in 2024 but then there's another thing that it's pricing too Another part of the probability distribution was that they do hike and they keep hiking to above 2% which is the Bloomberg economics team's forecast and I concur with that kind of idea that they're going to probably hike a little bit more than the markets currently pricing That's kind of where I wanted to go Ira I mean it just seems like this is being fairly well telegraphed by this Federal Reserve And I'm wondering are they taken out the risk that they could be more aggressive because a lot of folks have told me is one sure way to end this party that we're all enjoying here in the equity markets over the past several years and that's the fed being too aggressive and really surprising the market Is that a risk still Well I think it would be hard for them at this point to surprise the market because the market is still pricing nearly even odds of them actually hiking in March I think that march hike is probably a little bit too early but hike and May or June I think is certainly in the cards at this point And if the markets held up with the expectation of that now the question is not look I'm not an equity person but if the equity market is looking at the rates market they should be saying hey we are going to see tighter monetary policy come the middle of 2022 at the latest and at the same time And I think this might be the big surprise So if you're worried Paul and looking for something to worry about for risk assets it's that I think that the Federal Reserve will start to unwind its balance sheet So it's going to start to reduce the amount of actual dollars that it printed in the form of bank reserves very early in this process So I don't think that they're going to wait 18 months two years like they did the last cycle I think that they start to run off probably in the summer of next year So maybe in June or July or September of next year I think they'll start reducing their balance sheet And I think that might have the impetus of potentially spooking risk asset markets a little bit So spooking risk asset markets you have Scott miner saying that there's a risk of a recession in 2023 What is a flatter yield curve really saying here Ira Well the flatter yield curve isn't looking necessarily only at the economics right So and the ten year yield is certainly and the 30 year yield being under 2% is certainly telling you that they are worried about longer term growth prospects And frontend yields are going to be reflective of monetary policy So a flatter yield curve is just telling you that the market is not expecting a significant boon in growth where still pricing massively negative real yields So that's.

fed Jersey U.S. Bloomberg Scott miner Paul
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:05 min | 8 months ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"On Wall Street and we check the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg ten year treasury also higher up to 30 seconds He had 1.44% Yield on the two year .64% nymex crude oil is up 1% or 72 cents at $71 59 cents a barrel At 1.2% is at 1785 80 announced the Euro 1.1314 against the dollar the yen at one 14.14 Nathan Karen we begin with the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve a hawkish shift is underway to tackle the hottest inflation in a generation chair Jay Powell announced key changes to the Central Bank's asset purchase program and laid out a road map for three rate hikes next year We are facing out our purchases more rapidly because with elevated inflation pressures and a rapidly strengthening labor market the economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support Says the fed will end its bond buying program by mid march and could raise rates before the economy achieves full employment While Nathan reaction is pouring into the decision former New York fed president and Bloomberg economic senior adviser Bill Dudley calls the fed's outlook for inflation quote a magical forecast They have the unemployment rate below their estimate of what's consistent with full planner for three whole years and inflation just magically melts away back towards their 2% objective In 2024 the median estimate of inflation is 2.1% That's within a whisker of their target even though they actually haven't made monetary policy tight at any time over this period After yesterday's decision Bill Dudley thinks the fed could start raising rates as soon as March And now that we've heard from the fed Karen we get two more Central Bank decisions from across the pond at 7 a.m. it's the Bank of England followed by the European Central Bank at 7 45 a.m. Wall Street time Most economists predict the BOE will leave policy unchanged in the European Central Bank is expected to announce plans to end its pandemic related bond purchases Nathan financial markets appear to be reassured by the hawkish shift from the fed but Guggenheim chief investment officer Scott monitored warrants they're not priced for the worst case scenario Companies in the country and the amount of overleverage in companies that have weak balance sheets even modest increase in interest rates could be very damaging to them And then it's a domino effect The weak companies go first and then the other companies call out as the economy slows those companies cut back spending and reduce employment Guggenheim Scott miner says the fed is setting itself up for a recession as soon as 2023 Outside of inflation Karen we remain focused on the pandemic and the omicron variant this morning Bloomberg's Renee young joins us live with the very latest Good morning Good morning Nathan U.S. COVID cases are coming in around 120,000 a day They're nearly back to a level of not seen since September and the spread is even quicker in the UK where officials expect a surge in hospitalizations over the holidays That's where a study today is painting a bleak picture on long COVID It shows about 7 in ten people in the UK hospitalized with the virus still face fatigue muscle pain and breathing difficulties a year after being discharged Meantime there's another study out of South Africa and vaccines It says two doses of the Pfizer vaccine plus a previous COVID-19 infection may give stronger protection against the omicron variant That points to concerns that low hospitalizations and deaths in South Africa may be due to a high level of prior infections Life in New York I'm Renee young Bloomberg daybreak All right Renee thank you doctor Anthony Fauci is weighing it on vaccines and the omicron variant that chief White House medical adviser says existing shots should work well against the new strain I'll boost the vaccine regimens work against a crime At this point there is no need for a variant specific booster So far 240 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine that's nearly 93% of the adult population On the corporate front this morning Karen apple is reacting to the surge in COVID cases the iPhone maker is now delaying its return to office plans indefinitely We get the details from Bloomberg's Charlie pellet There is now no firm deadline for a corporate return to the office Apple is facing a resurgence in COVID-19 cases along with a fast spreading new variant so it's delaying bringing back corporate staff It had planned to have them return by February 1st employees were informed of the move in a memo sent from CEO Tim Cook the lack of a firm date points to the struggle that companies are facing and trying to get their operations back to normal fellow tech giant Microsoft scrapped its return to work date in September In New York Charlie pellet Bloomberg daybreak Charlie thank you We have an upcoming Wall Street debuted to tell you about this morning Reddit has filed for an initial public offering The social media platform that helped fuel this year's meme stock frenzy said the number of shares and proposed price range have yet to be determined It was valued at $10 billion in a funding round this summer In Novartis is trading higher this morning Karen the Swiss drug maker plans to buy back as much as $15 billion of shares with proceeds from the sale of its stake in rochet and has Novartis shares up 4% And of us is cashing in this morning Nathan Bruce Springsteen has sold this master's and music publishing to Sony Music and Sony Music publishing for a combined total around $500 million That's according to billboard which cites unidentified sources Springsteen has reported We've been in talks with Sony about the sale since at least in November And futures this morning are on the rise S&P futures have 25 points Dow futures have 172 and NASDAQ futures up 100 Straight ahead your latest local headlines Plus a check of sports And this is Bloomberg In south 5 O 7 on Wall Street we're at 54° in Central Park already dealing with a crash on the.

fed Bill Dudley Bloomberg Renee young Nathan Karen Jay Powell European Central Bank Central Bank BOE Nathan Guggenheim Scott miner
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:28 min | 1 year ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"12,742 10 Year Treasury of Fun 30 seconds, He'll 300.89% they yield on the two year 20.11% Nynex crude oil of 1.1%, or 51, cents at 48 33 a barrel Comex gold up 2.1% or $39.30 a day. 98 40 announce the euro 1.2253 against the dollar. The yen £102.96 at 1.3599. And we're watching big coin this morning at $23,155. That's a Bloomberg business flashed almond. Paul. Karin, Thanks so much, Okay, I'm gonna cut to the chase, folks, Bitcoin, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It would nice to speak to an adult. He's out of Illinois state with good academics that wander over to a C F A. He held court in Abyan Amro for years. Aubrey Lanston before this Paul, sweetie, How about we talk to an adult on Bitcoin? Let's talk to Mike McGlone Bloomer Intelligence, senior commodity strategist. Mike's been constructive on Bitcoin for as long as I can remember. He's explained it to me a million times. I think I get it. But I don't understand a 28% rise in this Bitcoin just in the last week. Mike, what's going on? Hello, Paul. And in time, I think the bottom line is Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative digital acid into mainstream adoption, and it's early days it's still not widely adopted. So what we're seeing happening now is I think what was old resistance around 20,000. Is transitioning to support for next year likely on its way to about 100,000 is approximately one trillion market captain. I appreciate your snickering time, but it's unfortunate here's a key factor. Bitcoin. Something has to trip it up, or it's more likely just to continue doing what it's been doing, and that's appreciating in price. What could trip it up? Like exactly. That's the question I have not been able to get but something that can break some kind of major hack some kind of okay like maybe Banyon it like they did go. But if you better remember when gold was bad band in 1933 just went from $20 to $35 so That could be good, but something that I can mostly probably with the hack was some kind of technology. The arch complaint forgetting about you know, coffee table talk on Marxist theory is that the scarcity is contrived. And some day the scarcity will go away. Respond to that. It's almost impossible. Unless you have some kind of major agreement with the network. It is now the world's largest de essential network, and you need a 51% agreement to do that. So the key factors Bitcoin supply next year is going to drop 2%. The last time we had a big cutting supply was 2017 and it really 15 ex. So I am actually concerned that it could go up almost 5 10 X next year. I guess that's why I'm working. When Scott Miner says $400,000 to scarlet food, you're not so much nodding your head, but you've got to raise on Detrick for that. Raison d'etat. Absolutely to me, Tom. It's just a matter of time, something I can't predict. And here's the key thing. Now it's even being adopted by insurance companies in an environment where they get zero on their bonds, so The key thing to remember if I die, Mrs King gets Bitcoin. She's taking notes at home, Paul. Exactly. Think about that. Grant. Grampa, Tom. Why didn't you buy Bitcoin when it was 10 to $20,000? That's a question that we might have to worry about. The bottom line is it's being adopted. I just I can't figure out what's gonna take to fail. But the key thing is, have you ever been to the British Museum in London? You see these hordes like the Hoxie hordes. Will you hide gold and things? Me. That's what it is. Now It's a digital world and this is my goal. I was with Nicholas Wade in London, and I thought we'd have a big time on the town. Michel's Wait. Now you're looking at the Greek ruins in the British Museum. Like for three hours. But might I loved about that place? It's those hordes in the Hoxie horses. One that really grabs me because you know it was. You know, you drop the hammer in the country, son. You find this hoard of gold because you had you would equate to Bitcoin. Extra. Absolutely because it's on a global scale. You look at the U. S money is like you know for us. It's like water is to fish but the rest of the world we have debasing currencies in zero interest rates. This is this is a lifesaver. We can just click a button and put in a thumb drive and put your head and diversify some of your assets. Mike. So I hear about Bitcoin and investing a Bitcoin on sports Talk radio in New York. That's when I know I get a little bit concerned here. What do we know about who's actually buying this stuff? Retail visit being embraced by institutions are the mutual funds in Boston, buying this thing, our hedge funds buying it. What do we know? That's part of the key thing I find disconcerting pauses, very bullish, but at this point, I hate to say it, but it's really everybody know, Look, a papal papal brought it into the mass, and it's very easy and it's cheap to buy $100 with a big point. At the same time, we have institutions jumping on board. Now you hear the note billion years from insurance companies, So it's all happening now, And that's the big difference from 2017. In the meantime, you look at risk adjusted 260 Day vile to him. Bitcoin is the lowest ever versus gold and the stock market So looking ahead right now it's almost the same risk. It's actually lower risk on 260 Day, Val to even the NASDAQ. All right. When I see an asset go up in price like this, Oftentimes in an open economy, we see some substitutes Come in. Who's to say that somebody in a garage in Palo Alto? Can't come up with a flock of a better word. Competing security competing product. Take away some of this, You know just this demand for X bt Absolutely. That is a key issue. Another seven almost 8000 krypton, Frances, But this is Survivor bias. And just like there's competing precious metals for gold, there's only one gold. It's the one that's being adopted. It's one that has been adopted, so we know how that look works. It's the one that's already been taken. It has the open the depth and it has the the size behind it, so right now it's about 400 billion. That's unique thing about it as it adds. Guys to space. It increases the demand, which is in your space, So I'm looking really around one trillion next year, which is around 50,000. But substitution is a problem. But you look at the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. It only tracks the top 10 but has a survivor. Vices by there's only gonna track the ones that of success. Michael McGlone has been a clinic. Thank you so much. Michael McGlone Blumberg intelligence here in Bitcoin folks. For those you that aren't up to speed on this like me not up to speed on this. Boy, Paul, do we get a response? We talked Bitcoin. Absolutely. Tom. And you know, Mike McGlone has been writing about this from day one, and I think you have all the people I talked in here, but he's the one that kind of I think really has a full understanding of it from a commodities perspective and any writes a lot about him. Whenever he writes about Bitcoin. It gets huge readership on the Bloomberg terminals you could imagine. Get get Hate mail, and that Bill gets death threats and he was really you know, people get fired up about this thing. Yeah, and it xray tales. Retail investors are all over time and again when it's on sports talk radio..

Mike McGlone Bloomer Intellige Paul Tom Bloomberg British Museum Michael McGlone London Michael McGlone Blumberg Illinois Karin Abyan Amro Aubrey Lanston Nicholas Wade Hoxie Scott Miner
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:34 min | 2 years ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"There's some sectors that you want to have more or less exposure to sell off going global once again Analysis of the day's Wall Street action. What's the thought on Apple here from Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg opinion and influential newsmaker. Very, very disturbing, Dynamic Network. Bloomberg Markets with Paul Sweeney and Bunny Quinn subscribe today at Bloomberg. Radio dot com Bloomberg Business or Guggenheim's Global Sea. Io Scott Miner has told Bloomberg television that the feds pledged to Kate Rights low off the longer we'll make it virtually impossible to prevent bubbles in asset prices, Man, it says. The markets of price for rights remaining on hold for at least five more years. The chairman's going T have a lot of pressure on him to define what an overshoot means and you know what blacks they treat our rate increased. But coming into this was with the way the market was priced, were basically Christ for virtually no increase for the next five years. I was a little bit surprised because I'm probably a little bit more on the parish side of this that they would be a strong and their commitment goes 2023. But you know, the market is clearly priced for that, And they don't want to disappoint the market because the last thing they want to see right now is for interest rates to begin to rise, especially You know, 10 year notes, which are.

Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg Bloomberg Business Bloomberg Intelligence Kate Rights Scott Miner Dynamic Network chairman Apple Bunny Quinn Paul Sweeney
"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:58 min | 2 years ago

"scott miner" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And that market volatility Dennis of Wedbush securities is staying bullish so Dan we just heard from Scott miner that of Guggenheim said this is the worst event of his career why are you so optimistic it's obviously it's a major tragedy the outbreak but our view is that the exhaustion civilians we have to look at and say this is impacted demand the longer term and this is changed dynamic for our winners and fundamentally when I look at names like apple and Microsoft and Amazon and some of the findings even though this is going to be a very uncertain period and a lot of hand holding when we're on the other side that in my opinion this continues to be stocks we want to be owning even though you have to obviously factor and risk in the near term Microsoft H. P. cutting their forecast for the quarter you know what do you think then the impact is going to be in the near term if in the long term mmhm your positive sure the makers of the good example socialist about the warning yesterday get PC's a third around then you not have to take that off the table but yet what the two thirds the cloud Adger a key part of the transmission of Microsoft that continues to be something that they kept on the table and I think fundamentally seventy eighty percent evaluations because of that you're more interviews like this one on Bloomberg television streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg mobile app or check your local cable listings breaking news twenty four hours a day this is a business flash thank you for being headquarters in London I'm Sandra can help with this Bloomberg radio business flash now European and U. S. equity futures are pointing high off to Asian stocks gained for the first time in eight days markets reversed early declines of the bank of Japan offered equity and pledge to ensure market stability amid the spreading coronavirus it comes after the fed on Friday signalled that it's open to easing policy stance and we have seen China's CSI three hundred game three and three tenths of a percent in Shanghai currently the hang sang up six tenths of a cent in Hong Kong now the BOJ's reassurances sending the yen lower following last week's rally coming down four tenths of percent at one eight spot three otherwise I'm keeping a close eye on south Korea's one running one point eight percent of the strong trade data out this morning the official one also big currently below seven again we'll be back on the spot index meanwhile slightly lower standing and the euro a bit higher today as trade talks between the UK and the EU kickoff and Brussels late sept that said we have all seen treasury yields still moving lower currently the tenure downfall basis points at one spot eleven at the moment ten year bond yields opening slightly higher at negative sixty always free full has been halted by hopes that AIPAC and its allies will deepen output cuts of them meeting this week this week WTI Carney up to and three tenths of a cent of forty five dollars about gold also a rebounding after it slumped on Friday currently up one percent at one thousand six hundred and two dollars a Troy ounce that's a pretty big business national heating Karen's with more on what's going on around the world Sandra thank you a number of developments today in the corona virus outbreak New York Cumberland have reported they fenced infractions South Korea now has more than four thousand two hundred confirmed cases and the global death toll has risen above three thousand meanwhile president trump will meet with pharmaceutical executives today the administration is now testing off the shelf drugs to fight the coronavirus South Korea says the north has launched two unidentified projectiles off the east coast the move coming just after the first anniversary of the failed I know we summit with the U. S. is the first such actions since the north Korean leader said he was no longer bound by self imposed the freeze on weapons tests done to this reading to write a virus epidemic shut down phones as leaf museum yesterday that's off to workers who guarded its famous artworks became fearful of contracting the virus due to the flow of tourists from around the world only three quarters of the museum's one point six million visitors last year came from abroad France has recorded one hundred and thirty coronavirus cases global news twenty four hours a day on Adam QuickTake by Bloomberg how it's by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than one hundred and twenty countries I'm grandparents this is pulling back this is the Brussels addition Greenberg's briefing on what matters most in the European Union this was now it's seven twenty AM on this Monday morning it is time for Brussels addition Plavix briefing on what matters most in the European Union powered of course pilot teams in Brussels some pieces say that we joined by bin bags at Toyota and three new now from the E. U. capital Victoria good morning what's the latest when it comes to corrode device in your house that you actually preparing in terms of a response as we see the number of cases now hello I am and the concern about the impact on the economy rising hi good morning yeah the virus is basically the number one one of the two key issues right now preoccupying European officials the president of the European Commission also underlined she gonna do this press conference today to say more about the E. U.'s responds there are two concerns the forces in terms of health policy and with the use trying to do is it just ensure maximum coordination among its member states in terms of how to deal with this outbreak increases among the countries and the second is a look at how to deal with the an economical way to caution and there's an emergency call all of them do you find it kind of ministers later this week to discuss it and there at the moment is trying to assess the situation of the how to coordinate some kind of cool Switzerland today we've also got lots of other things coming in which they have to think about not least a range of manufacturing PMI data coming out the OECD also publishing its latest economic outlook so one of the points to look out for I mean so far and any every numbers we've seen in the forecast today they said it's too soon to assess the impact of the buyers and the economy would be always in the outlook or expecting in may be the first time we can see this kind of reflected in the numbers that I should be interested and with regards to manufacturing is because I thought the coming out today and it's a particularly sensitive sector in Europe lately so I think there's gonna be a lot of focus you see how Kate has been by that but there was an outbreak yeah exactly is the first update to the OECD's economic outlook since November but there's also of course another big issue which is the conflicts in the tension on the Greek Turkish border over the weekend off the the Turkish president Erdogan threatened basically to let migrants through and through to Europe what's the latest well not how concerned is your about this situation another major issue and then in the mind right now it's a very tense situation but it's also particularly awkward one from Brussels because it also it can kind of Ding Dan Marshall I'm very very strongly because it's also very reliant on a deal with Turkey to stem migration so far so it's kind of a very fine line of the E. you have to trade with me it's a really difficult time I'm in that state being here for policy chief has called for an extraordinary meeting will be at foreign ministers to discuss this and see how we can move forward but for now we're just looking at migration flows at the border and they're waiting to see what's going to happen today I am until we shouldn't forget I was one of the really big things which is of course the UK and EU officials opening their talks on a future trade deal I mean the boom boom music hasn't been good so what I'm expecting the trucker starting today I think about a hundred officials from the U. K. are heading to Brussels to disturb the discussions on the future relations with the interview it's the first of a of a set of different applications as you said the move hasn't been great there's a lot of that kind of talk about them being on the phone you know quite quite different quite quite far side especially images of state aid for example so it's not clear yet how easy it's going to be two to reach a deal on time but I think over the next few days are going to have a much clearer picture of how how come that will be okay we'll watch out for that and also from any comments from S. a phone to line about the coronavirus impact in Europe thank you so much for joining us that's been basically to attend three new life from Brussels and if you want to stay on top of all things you NIB addition is the function on your project and a full the Brussels addition and straight ahead on Bloomberg daybreak Europe can be joined by Tim Graf head of imia McCurry specially at State Street you'll be joining us in the studio with his take on today's market gains in the teeth of the concern about the virus how much of a rally is this really how long could it last and.

Wedbush securities Scott miner Guggenheim Dan