17 Burst results for "Sarah Eisen"
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"A not so obvious ripple effect of the SVB bank failure BioTech. Taking it on the chin today and all this week, in fact, we're going to explain why the Silicon Valley bank is so intertwined with the sector. And later, the housing trade has held up pretty well so far this year, but as the fed signals more hikes and credit gets tighter, could this be a spring of pain for sellers and the sector. I'm Sarah eisen in for Melissa Lee tonight. This is fast money. We are live from the NASDAQ market site on the desk tonight. Tim Clark, Courtney Garcia, Jeff mills, and Steve Grasso. Welcome to all of you. We're going to start with the latest developments on the Silicon Valley bank. Federal regulators shutting down the tech focused lender today and taking control of its deposits as the company failed to raise capital and shore up its balance sheet. SVB stock was halted before the market opened today after falling another 60 plus percent in the pre market. That, of course, on top of yesterday's 62% drop. A month ago, this was an $18 billion stock. Now, maybe worth nothing. Let's get more on what's next for the bank. And the industry, Danny fordson joins us. West Coast correspondent for The Sunday Times and Danny, you're going to have a busy weekend following what comes next, the fallout for startups. And of course, what happens to SVB? Tell us what you're looking into at this point. Well, it's going to be a very big weekend, right? Because as you have seen in the market, companies like first republic, some of these other regional banks, they've all seen their stocks crash as well because of course the fear is that this is the sign of something bigger that there is contagion. So what is happening right now I think are going to be round the clock talks all weekend so that on Monday morning they can come out and say this company has been bought by a white knight and everybody's deposits will be covered on a one to one basis and that is very important so that they can set a clear signal that this is not the sign of something much deeper and much bigger here. Yeah, I mean, that would be very positive. If they could find that, if the FDIC could find a buyer, give us a little perspective on Silicon Valley bank. 16th largest bank in the country, the size is quadrupled in the last 5 years. Talk a little bit about the influence out there. And the size and the scope here. Yeah, so it is a unique bank, right? It's a niche bank, but it's a very important niche. So they market themselves as having at least half of all startups as their clients. But what that means is that they are very exposed and what we've seen in the startup world and the tech world in the last 5 years, especially with zero interest rates. There's just been floods of money coming in from venture capital, creating all of these new companies. They've all got onto the books of Silicon Valley bank and now of course, everything's gone into reverse. They started to pull their money out. Interest rates have gone up. The bonds have bond rates have gone down and all of a sudden they found themselves in a real crunch. Hey Danny, what do you think? What do you think is the most dislocated stock action you saw today on the back of SVB? Was it first republic? Was it Charles Schwab or do you think that this has the ability to cascade further and the story grow from here? I think the hope obviously is that it stops here, right? Because this is, it's a unique bank and also that it doesn't have many individual customers. These are startups. And so then they're all controlled by basically a handful of venture capital funds. All of whom said all at once, pull your money out before it's too late. And it really shows us the herd mentality out here once a few venture capital firms tell all the portfolio companies get out. Everybody starts doing it. And they only have they have less than 40,000 commercial clients. So it doesn't take much, it doesn't take that many big accounts for to really start a run. Jeff? Hey, Danny, Jeff mills. Just a quick question about potential bank regulation. I know it might be a little bit early here, but are there any rumblings around what the implications could be relative to additional regulations coming down the pike once all this is handled? I think it's a little early for that, but again, I think that's why this weekend is going to be so important because if they can say, look, this was a liquidity crunch. It was cash crunch. We have figured it out. We put this into receivership and accounts are going to be covered on a one to one basis, then I think that will be kind of a job done. People can breathe a sigh of relief, but that's why this weekend is critical as a message to the market. And of course, to the wider banking sector. Danny, we appreciate it. Keep us posted on your reporting. What will follow it all weekend long? Good to talk to you today. Tim, there are a lot of ripple effects to talk about, whether it's in the banking session, how about the startups? They funded half of American startups. And now the and now some of these uninsured depositors are waiting to find out whether they're going to even get the cash so they can pay their employees. There
Tech Path Crypto
"sarah eisen" Discussed on Tech Path Crypto
"The case, back to your point, could be a bullish signal going forward. And I think, again, with crypto, the key is this is right. The further away from FTX we get and the less there's new FTX scenarios, right? Where you scare the market and you worry, people start worrying about their money in their exchange accounts. And so forth. They think the further away we get, the better it is for crypto, right? Now the big headwind is going to be when are we going to get the judge's decision on ripple? When are we going to get the regulation on crypto and find out exactly what it is? I mean, that's kind of the dark gray area here in the cryptocurrency markets. But I think investors are gaining at least the retail crowd is gaining more and more stamina to be back in this market after they really got scared when FTX collapsed. Yeah, for sure. With that being said, I want to show you this is a good one. The Wall Street cheat sheet. You've seen this before. Where do you think we are in this thing? Because we were looking at just the variations. You can kind of see the euphoria all the way into place. This looks exactly like that high back in 2021. Then we had the massive crush right here. Do you think we're down in this area right here around the anger and depression zone or what's your thought? Yeah, I do. I think right around that bounce, the bounce with anger is kind of where I'm leaning towards where we are. That kind of orangish yellow or yellow exactly right there. So I still think it's going to fade and you know I'm still in the camp that as of now I haven't seen enough signals to make a call that the lows are in. But again, you know, when you're trading at 16, 15,000, I don't think there's that much more to go to the downside. I mean, maybe 12 to 13, maybe worst case scenario 9. But for sure, we're in that anger area, right? I mean, I think FTX really was one of those scenarios where investors were like, what the heck? You know, this is messed up, that people are, you know, basically lying to our face and just taking money and running. So I do think that we're close, I still think it could take another 6 to 12 months for it to bottom out, but I think that again, the downside is somewhat limited when you look at the bigger move from 69,000 all the way down to 15.7 or so. Yeah, for sure. Gareth, Kathy wood made a couple of statements. This was in a previous interview with Sarah eisen and quintella. Talking about two factors here.
Squawk Pod
"sarah eisen" Discussed on Squawk Pod
"I'm Sarah eisen, from the open to the close. CNBC has you covered. From what's driving the market moves to how investors are reacting, we'll guide you through each trading session and bring you some of the biggest names and newsmakers in the business. Be sure to follow and listen to CNBC's closing bell podcast today. Bring in show musically. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today, on squawk pot. Biden versus the buybacks. What's the one way to increase your salary? Buy back your stock. The president hitting corporate compensation hard. We have an exit interview with The White House's top economic adviser, Brian deese, as he departs his post. The chip's legislation itself had a provision that said that none of the money that the government provides can be used for stock buybacks. If you need federal funding to move forward, your priority should be investing in America. And a luxury shake up, Grammy winning Pharrell Williams. Is ready to take a step in his Louis Vuitton shoes. CNBC's
Northwest Newsradio
"sarah eisen" Discussed on Northwest Newsradio
"Economic news is bad news for the stock market. And that's the paradigm we're in. And look, frankly, the fed's been very upfront about its desire to get the unemployment rate to 4.7% by the end of 2023 to slow things down to really rationalize the labor situation, but that kind of jump in the unemployment rate, if we get there, has always catalyzed the recession. Evercore ISI's Julian Emmanuel on CNBC investors want the fed to stop raising interest rates. It cuts into corporate profits. Solid online holiday sales for the season that just ended Adobe says, consumers spent a record $212 billion up three and a half percent over 21. But many retailers still had too much inventory, and they are still discounting this week. Bed Bath & Beyond shoppers may not have a store to go too much longer. It warned that bankruptcy could be possible. Shares plummeting after the company warned it's running out of cash and considering bankruptcy. Remember, Bed Bath & Beyond was caught up in the meme trading saga back in 2021, it is down 95% from its peak in January of that year. CNBC's Sarah eisen. Delta, the first airline to make in flight Wi-Fi free on every plane, there are catches, the airline will monetize it a different way. Yes, you have to have a SkyMiles account to access it, which is free as well. We're bringing partners in. So we announced that we got paramount plus joining us. We've got T mobile joining us. We have American Express joining us on this launch. And that umbrella package will give customers opportunities to receive exclusive content, exclusive Oscars. Delta Air Lines, CEO, Ed Bastian on CNBC. Post COVID, the cruise lines have found new ways to make money. Well, because of COVID, cruise lines lower their prices just to get people on board, but travelers who booked on carnival for this spring may have gotten their deal on the cabin and prices for related things are just going up, according to The Wall Street Journal. The company is starting to raise prices on certain things, like gratuity charges, Wi-Fi charges on board a cruise will also be going up, it's a sign that the cruise lines are perhaps starting to get pricing power back, CNBC's sima Modi. On today's watch list, of course we get the jobs report this morning
Northwest Newsradio
"sarah eisen" Discussed on Northwest Newsradio
"Good economic news is bad news for the stock market. And that's the paradigm we're in. And look, frankly, the fed's been very upfront about its desire to get the unemployment rate to 4.7% by the end of 2023 to slow things down to really rationalize the labor situation, but that kind of jump in the unemployment rate, if we get there, has always catalyzed a recession. Evercore ISI's Julian Emmanuel on CNBC investors want the fed to stop raising interest rates. It cuts into corporate profits. Solid online holiday sales for the season that just ended. Adobe says, consumers spend a record $212 billion up three and a half percent over 21. But many retailers still had too much inventory, and they are still discounting this week. Bed Bath & Beyond shoppers may not have a store to go too much longer. It warned that bankruptcy could be possible. Shares plummeting after the company warned it's running out of cash and considering bankruptcy. Remember, Bed Bath & Beyond was cut up in the meme trading saga back in 2021, it is down 95% from its peak in January of that year. CNBC's Sarah eisen. Delta, the first airline to make in flight Wi-Fi free on every plane, there are catches. The airline will monetize it a different way. Yes, you have to have a SkyMiles account to access it, which is free as well. We're bringing partners in. So where you announced that we got paramount plus joining us. We got T mobile joining us. We have American Express joining us on this launch. And that umbrella package will give customers opportunities to receive exclusive content, exclusive Oscars. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian on CNBC. Post COVID, the cruise lines have found new ways to make money. Well, because of COVID, cruise lines lower their prices just to get people on board, but travelers who booked on carnival for this spring may have gotten their deal on the cabin and prices for related things are just going up, according to The Wall Street Journal. The company is starting to raise prices on certain things, like gratuity charges, Wi-Fi charges on board a cruise will also be going up. It's a sign that the cruise lines are perhaps starting to get pricing power back. CNBC's Seema Modi on today's watch list, of course we get the jobs report this morning
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"I'm Sarah I have been in for Melissa Lee. This is fast money live tonight from the NASDAQ market site on the desk with me. We have Bono in Iceland. And Nathan, Gaia dami also joins us. We'll start with the markets post fed minutes roller coaster, stocks gaming, giving up much of their early gains after the Central Bank's latest signal that more rate hikes are coming. All three indexes briefly falling into the red mid afternoon, markets did manage to finish the day with gains, the well off their highs of the session. The Dow up as much as 272 points ended just 133 points higher in just a little rally there into the close. Minutes from the fed's latest meeting showing officials are committed to keeping rates higher until there's more significant progress in bringing down inflation. After the release, futures markets stopped pricing in a rate cut before the end of the year. So should mark as we bracing for another new normal on rates, guy, it was pretty clear messaging from the fed today. Sarah eisen, wonderful to be with you, although not in presence of you there at the NASDAQ. But no, absolutely. And they've been, I do not like the Federal Reserve. I think people that watch the show know that I'm sure you're aware of it as well, but I'll tell you, I think they've done an excellent job of messaging over the last 6 to 9 months. So good for them, for whatever reason the market doesn't necessarily want to listen, but the most interesting thing for me today was Neil kashkari who was as wrong as anybody a year or so ago has become gone from the biggest dove to the biggest hawk, which is interesting. If you had told me that yesterday, I said, you know what, the market's going to sell in a meaningful way that didn't happen. So I take some encouragement from that, but to your point, this new normal of higher for longer is not being fully priced in in the equity markets, I believe. I expect kashkari who's a Minneapolis fed president and becomes a voting member this year, a hundred more basis points of tightening this year, which is probably on the high end of everything. So does that mean that the stock market is not a safe place right now? Well, I'm not sure. I mean, that would be if we knew right now for sure, a hundred more bases points of tightening. And then what, though. But I think it would be a negative if we heard that. I don't know that it was he the outlier when they did that. He's a little bit of an outlier. So I'm not expecting that, but I am not expecting any kind of easing in the near term at all. I think that we don't have enough data to support that yet. I know, you know, we haven't seen some of the lag effects we hear a lot about that and actually the economy is slowing quicker than we think and inflation is lower than we think. But it's still there. So I think that for a while, we've got to get this is the new normal of rates, and we're just used to this what we think of as normal was never normal. That was ridiculous, free money for a long time. So what does that mean for the market now? Bottom one, because a lot of it has been priced in, hasn't it? I would argue there's still quite a bit to left to be priced in. I mean, you look at fed fund futures, they've continued to fight that all the way up. Along the entire way, they have just been the petulant child saying, we refuse to go. If you take a look at the vix, it's still at a subdued level. I would say the outlier right now is gold. You're starting to see strength in there and then the miners which kind of speaks to people's search for safety. If you look at yields, we've mentioned it earlier, when you can get four, four and a half, 5%, risk free, and dividend yields aren't looking quite as attractive, what is the risk reward for entering a market with this unknown here. So I think there is still some things left to be priced in. I think the market will get constructive at some point. But I don't think that people that are calling for a new bottom or retesting of the lows from last October are out over their skis at all by any shutter they make. A lot of negativity. I don't expect you to be any different. No, great to have you here, Sarah. So here's the thing. I guess it's funny. We keep hearing this, what's priced in right now, right? And so a lot of us on this desk and you'd say that we haven't been negative. We've been cautious because what we see from past cycles here is that the stock market has not really discounted. I think the differential between where rates are. If you look at kind of what expectations are for that terminal rate, like you just talked about, I mean, cash card being the outlier now on the hawkish side. He was the outlier on the dovish side, you know, a couple of years ago. I think you can kind of take his opinion out. I just don't think it's going to be, you know, he is going to be a voting member. But if you look at what just kind of happened today, I mean, the stock market really didn't want to rally. If you look at how it rallied towards the end of the day after the minutes, that seemed a bit manufactured and especially on a day where you saw crude oil get published. I disagree. You saw yields get down. If the fed told you a few months ago, that financial conditions are too loose and we're worried about it. And nobody on the committee expects a rate cut. This year, the market would have sold off so hard. The market held up. Yeah, it's a field stayed lower, and the dollar weaker through that. That happened months ago, what would happen to this market? Well, but here's the thing. It's the second day of the year. We know how flows go. We know how the market acted over the last couple of weeks. I think that cocktail for stocks today was pretty good. Crude oil down three and a half percent yields that were 3.9%, just a few trading days ago on the ten year trading at 3.65. The U.S. dollar index down a little bit. Those are all good things on a near term basis. So again, I think the reaction that you had after the minutes is probably the reaction that we see turned into a trend as we get closer towards Q four earnings because again, the stock market is going to trade on a couple of things. S&P earnings and on yields, right? And so to your point about the outlier view of where the
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"A Friday frenzy. Stocks rallying to close out the week and the Dow is on pace for its best month in more than four decades. So with big tech earnings in the rearview and fed meeting and focus, what can we expect as we kick off a new week? Plus, it's not just the fed on deck next week, pharma, semis, consumer stocks all getting ready for earnings. How should you play the names ahead of their reports? And from defense to offense, the stock that just put in its longest win strengths, winning streaks since 1998, and why it could go even higher from here. I'm Sarah eisen, in for Melissa Lee tonight. This is fast money live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of Times Square, New York City. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Gaia dami, Steve Grasso, Courtney Garcia. Welcome everyone. Thanks for having me. We're going to start with the markets monster rally to close out the week here. The Dow jumping nearly 830 points to lock in its best week since May. It's on pace for its best month since 1976 and get this, it's within a whisper of its best month since 19 38. Only guy adami remembers that. The S&P and the NASDAQ also posting big gains today with the tech heavy index, jumping as much as 3% at its highs of the session, Apple, one of the big winners today, jumping more than 7% and adding over a $175 billion in one day to its market cap. Meanwhile, Amazon dropped 7% after its disappointing earnings report, though closed well off its lows of the day. But with the fed meeting right around the corner here and way more earnings on deck can the momentum continue. I'll start with you Tim since you were kind enough to join me here. And that's great to have you here. And it's pleasure to be sitting next to you. I think we have a dynamic of part of the driver earlier in the week was lower rates, lower dollar, and those continue into the fed, and we can talk fed tool or blue in the face. Fed is going to do what they're going to do next week. The fact that Microsoft Google, Amazon, meta all drop donuts and the NASDAQ's up 2% this week tells you a lot about both where positioning was, where sentiment was, where seasonals are. And so there's a lot of things going for the market. I think right now, and we've talked about it guys hit some levels. We've kind of said that there's even room for the S&P to kind of go up to a 41 50 area. I think you have a case where if you asked me that apple's numbers deserve the kind of move they had today, no, they didn't, and Amazon's probably didn't deserve the downside. I think there's some defensive fun flow there. And you talk about the Dow. We talk about and we kind of pooh pooh, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I'll just say the S&P's I should say the NASDAQ and the semis underperformance to the S&P really still kind of continues. And the breakout of the Dow is something that, while it's a price weighted index, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The stocks that make up the down mostly in terms of transports and industrials, but this value trade. I think we continue to see a changing of the guard. I think we continue to see energy working. We got a lot of energy, Exxon is going to give us some numbers just in a second. We got some dynamics that tell us some parts of the weightings of these indices are going to change. Yeah, we were just talking about how good the Dow would have been doing if it Exxon wasn't kicked out and Salesforce didn't replace it. Time to buy it. As a sign of the times guy, you think the momentum can do nothing changes sentiment like price. How is your sentiment right now? Well, I'm glad you brought up that 1978. I was getting ready to turn 35 at a huge party that in 1938. I was saying you were overwhelmed. Well, remember that too. It turns out, what do I think? Well, if you go back, we actually talked about this on October 14th and then Monday, the 17th. We said the setup in terms of what we had seen the prior week looked hauntingly familiar to what we saw back in the middle of June and I think we all sort of posited that 4000 was probably going to be the level we got to. That would represent about a 14% rally off the 34 91 low and we really haven't wavered from that. We've seen it all the time Sarah, the biggest rallies take place in bear markets. We are in a bear market. I want to be clear. We've talked about this, but I think once it gets there and it's going to sort of line up probably with this fed or maybe the midterm elections. I think you sell it again. This to me looks exactly like the setup. June into August. Now we're talking about October 13th into early November. I'm glad he brought up the midterm elections because voter sentiment has changed and it's swung a lot lately toward Republicans and potential Republican control of the Senate. And I do wonder if that has something to do maybe with the better tone with the bullishness because the market narrative is that would be good. Deadlocked government would be good for stocks. So Grasso, what do you do? Yeah, so I have thought that the November elections were going to be a catalyst to see the market run into yearend. I'm a little shocked that the market decided to run prior to those elections. I thought that was going to be the real bubble that really sent us off through December. But if you look at what Tim had said, he talked about rates and the dollar. If you look at the chart of the dollar, it coincides inversely to the market. So if you think that the fed is going to ease that to me seems, as the first guy just mentioned, it seems a little too orchestrated for me. So if we're talking about 50 bps versus 75 bps and that's the reason why we're going to rally, I think we're grasping at straws personally. I think you're going to see the market sort of be a little tepid here. Maybe get up to the level that the guys are talking about, 41, 41, 50, and I'm afraid Sarah, that we pulled forward that midterm election rally to be honest. There is a lot of talk Courtney about seasonals right now. Seasonals and sentiments seem to be too big drivers besides the fact that we've seen lower treasury yields and a weaker dollar this week. What do you make of it? Yeah, and I think it's really kind of this tale of two markets right now and you are going to see it, which we've been talking about a lot throughout this year, how your longer duration assets we're going to underperform and they're really living up to that at this point in time. And this week specifically, it's been really remarkable to see on days where your tech firms were had horrible earnings and tech companies were coming down, but the overall mark is really continued to improve. I think it's just showing how much some of those kind of like older school stocks are really holding up the markets. And I think a lot of that will continue as we move forward. Where we're talking about other markets going up are down. I think there's certain parts of the economy that are going to continue to recover better than others. And I think you want to make sure you stay in those companies that have the good cash flow.
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Welcome back to fast money earnings alerts on Nike shares of the company dropping despite beating estimates on the top and the bottom lines, but that follows Nike's hitting a new 52 week low during today's Sessions. Their eyes has been listening on the conference call. Sarah, you got the latest. What's up? Hi, Melissa, John donahoe, the CEO of Nike just kicking off the call. He paid tribute to Serena Williams, talked up some of the company innovations and some of the sports highlights like the World Cup this year that they're looking forward to. But what investors really want to hear is the guidance that usually comes later in the call. Here's the story. The numbers came in slightly better than expected, but some of the details beneath the headlines, maybe concerning to investors, highlights. Nike did see growth in North America in Asia and in Europe and also less bad growth in China than what was expected. China sales declined 13% without the currency hit better than expectations. Digital sales are still growing double digits, and so is the direct to consumer business, which has been so key for Nike and its stock. That was up 14%. Now here are the lowlights. Margins were weaker and the company cited higher freight costs and increased markdowns, as well as the stronger dollar, inventories were up 44%. Here's the issue. There's just a lot of product. Now flooding into especially the North American market from the ports that were stuck at sea or backlogged in Asia. The supply chain is thawing, but that is creating a bit of a pile up, so Nike has to discount all that merchandise to get rid of some of the back seasons, hence the increased promotions. It could be helping North American sales, but it is weighing on profitability. Here's the key for the stock and for the call, is China improving and will it return to growth this current quarter? That is what Wall Street is expectation. As expecting, how long will it take to clear all of these this inventory, 44% is a big number. And what is the forecast given all of these pressures as well as the stronger dollar. Melissa, the dollar is really slicing into sales. Overall sales would have been up 10% for Nike. They were only up 4% because of the dollar. European sales basically vanished because of the strong dollar. They were only up 1%. And finally, there's a question about demand. It does appear strong. The brand momentum appears good, but is Nike seeing any sign of a slowdown as the inflation and interest rate shock bites all over the world. Some of the bearish reasons that I've just laid out, why the stock is already down 40% this year. Melissa, Sarah, thanks, Sarah eisen. Karen, this inventory show. I'm wondering how you start to think about that considering the holiday season is right upon us. You might actually start buying things for Christmas and other holidays at the end of the year. When you've got all these markdowns at your disposal to buy instead, like in terms of the cannibalization issue of other fuller price sales. Right. And to have during the quarter, they went through a lot of inventory, but it looks like they ended the quarter with a 115 days of inventory, which was higher than the street was expecting. It was around 79. That sounds like a lot to me. So it would go to your point of there's going to be more sales. And I mean, I knew this as somewhat of a temporary issue for Nike. They're Nike. They'll figure it out. But they still trade at a very premium multiple. They deserve a premium multiple, but in this market, they're probably not going to get as big a premium multiple. So I'd wait to see how it shakes out a little bit. You own it. It's not so premium of a multiple anymore. And so if you look at out to 24, which may be unfair, but maybe by then, China is normalized, but you have a peg ratio, a price to earnings growth for Nike of about one and a half. I mean, we haven't seen that in a long time. So look, I wish I could have been really bearish 50% higher, but I can just tell you, at this point, it's hard to get really bearish when the E and the PE on Nike is about as consistent as anybody. And I think isn't the worst from China over and as I said earlier, isn't the worst from the dollar, maybe not over, but we've seen a lot. We've endured a lot of pain. So boy, I wish I had gone flat on this name a few months back, but I still hold it as hard for me to get really bearish here. There's nothing that they said today that we were surprised that we heard. But have we seen the worst in terms of consumer demand being sucked out because of various other reasons? No, but your job. Definitely not. No, I think that's going to get a lot worse. And I think discounting is going to have to get worse, but a 44% inventory is startling even for DTC heavyweights like Nike and this is something that I think is in the price. All right, let's move on and get to micron shares of the company song after turning in a mixed report card for Q one. Christina parts nebulas is going through the report Christina. Well, Melissa, despite the revenue miss and really weak Q one guidance shares did actually pair back, their initial 2% drop, then they were positive. Now you can see
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"30 p.m. Eastern Time coming up. We're all over the after hours move in Lululemon. Share jumping after its latest report, they've got exclusive sound from the CEO. That is next, and we are counting down to a Big Apple event in just about a week's time. So what makes this event so special? We will tell you when bass money returns. Welcome back to fast money. We've got an earnings alert for you on Lululemon shares are higher by 9 and a half percent after the athletic retailer raised its guidance for the year. The company also handily beating estimates for the quarter posting earnings per share of two 20 versus expectations of one 87 a share of revenues coming in more than 5% above estimates that nearly $1.9 billion. Sarah eisen joins us with more on the results, Sarah. Hi, Melissa. You do not see many other retailers right now posting 29% sales growth. CEO Calvin McDonald of Lululemon says he hasn't seen any changes or signs of weakness from the consumer. Lulu, you mentioned also lifted guidance, so I asked McDonald, what the current quarter is looking like right now. We are very confident and comfortable with the start of the quarter. And we have very exciting back half of innovation of product coming. And we're cycling over some opportunities from last year where if you recall, last year it was September, it's hard to believe it was only a year ago where we saw a shutdowns in Vietnam, disrupted a lot of our flow of inventory in particular, certain categories like our outerwear. So we're excited to have that behind us. We're excited with our innovation pipeline in the momentum we carry into the quarter and into the back half. I dug in a little bit more on the supply chain because like everyone, Lulu was hit with these challenges, the factory closures, crazy shipping rates, but on that front McDonald is sounding upbeat as well. Listen. Getting better. From where we were last year at the peak on ocean deliveries were over 95 days, typically it's 45 days. We're in the 70 day range. So we are still leaning into air freight, which is putting some pressure on gross margin, but we're able to balance that a little bit more. Our vendors have done a great job in catching up to orders, which will help improve our on time. And as we manage our inventory going forward. So it's improving, but it's definitely not at the pre-pandemic levels. There's a question on supply chain and inventories. Finally, a big piece of the growth story here rests on international. McDonald's said, that was strong as well, especially in China up 30% this quarter, which was an improvement from last quarter, even with some of the concerns around the COVID lockdowns. And he said he's very excited about the long-term opportunity there. And is investing. But overall Melissa, it's a story of the core business. Men's women's accessories jumping 80%. Thanks to the viral the belt bag and they're able to charge full price, which a lot of retailers aren't able to do in this environment with consumers starting to trade down. He's just not seeing it. Is it belt bag of fanny pack? It is. I know. People are mocking me, but they call it a belt bag. And it sold out during the quarter. And I think it was very well timed for the summer of travel because it fanny packs, as you know, are very convenient with travel. But yeah, it was a fashion statement. And apparently lifted the accessories category 80%. Wow. Viva, the fanny pack, a belt bag. Sarah, thank you, Sarah eisen. Coming back. So higher income households are trading down to canned goods. They're trading away from deli meats. They're abandoning Campbell's soup, but they are buying belt bags. They're buying ABC pants, guy. Yeah. Well, that's Joe kernan. I don't need to know what the ABCs are. I do wear the underwears. You know, the boxer briefs, probably too much information for you, but I will tell you their extraordinary boxer briefs. That being said, direct to consumer up 30% at an inventory build for a company like Lululemon is not a bad thing. It's actually a good thing. So we see inventories up 86% year over year off at 30% sales growth. You say to yourself, they're doing something right here. The only knock on Lulu at these levels is valuation if you can wrap your head around 33 times the stock probably continues to grind higher from here. I'm gonna wrap my head around Nike. You know, this thing almost got back to its June Lowe's today. And expected to grow, I think earnings maybe 20 some percent next year, 10% sales growth trading about 22 times. I think Tim would tell you that's about as cheap as it's been in a long time and if you like the trends at Lulu, you probably like the Nike, especially into, let's call it the World Cup in November and cotter. You know, there's some callous out there. Yeah. Tim, I feel like you have a belt bag. That's a compliment, right? I appreciate that. Yeah, no, no, I take that as a compliment, though. You think I'm a fashion plate. By the way, Dan just teased a final trade. Look, these numbers in Lulu are extraordinary when you consider the environment and when you consider that they are not marking down anytime soon. They made that clear. They're not going into promotion land. They don't need to. EBITDA margin of 21 and a half percent, a two tier membership program that's coming into play. And on valuation with all these other companies out there that you have to evaluate in the context, maybe of a different market multiple. I see Lulu, one standard deviation lower than their 5 year average. In other words, they have come in a lot. This is a very attractive stock and I think you're buying weakness. And this is probably that weakness. Maybe you don't jump in by tomorrow morning. Stock traded down almost 15% to the intraday low yesterday into this print or today. So you are buying it at a discount. Maybe you don't chase it tomorrow, but you need to be adding this one. All right, switching gears here.
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Welcome back to fast money and earnings alert on United Airlines after our lows here after reporting a big miss on the top and bottom line Filippo is here with the CNBC exclusive interview with united CEO, Scott Kirby. Fell over to you. Thank you, Sarah Scott. First profitable quarter without payroll support since before the pandemic. That's the good news. The bad news is you fell short of expectations as well as your guidance in terms of capacity to summarize when you looking at the quarter, the biggest challenge out there, right now. Well, look, first, I'd say we are really glad to be returning to profitability for the first time since COVID began. It's an important milestone it's solid profitability. In the quarter, the miss was about fuel prices, fuel prices went up a lot, particularly in New York harbor fuel and that is volatile and goes. But the biggest challenge that's facing that faced us that faces us probably for the next 12 months is all the infrastructure challenges around aviation. It's maddening to us at united right now because we've hired ahead of the curve we've been hiring. We got 10% more pilots per black hour than we had in 2019 just as an example. But you look at the mess that's happening in Heathrow or some of the other challenges we've had with air traffic control or other things around the system. And the system just can't support our flying and our customers and the airline are at risk. So what we've done is just pull our capacity back. All the costs are still there because we've got we're prepared to be a much bigger airline. We have the people to be a much bigger airline, but we're going to be a smaller airline until the system can support it. Which brings up the question. You're pulling back your capacity for third and fourth quarter. You are not growing as much as you previously planned for next year. How long does this last? Is this something you expect to be worked out by the end of the year? Or does this go to the middle of next year if not farther beyond? We're not sure. We can't be sure because a lot of these are things that aren't in our control. But we do see progress. You take Newark, which was, frankly, a disaster in the second quarter. The FAA has worked with us. They've been very responsive. What's the impact on cutting the flights there, staffing the F 8, the air traffic control desk better. So we're seeing progress across parts of the system. Our base assumption is, though, that it's going to gradually get better and we're not going to get back to normal utilization and normal staffing levels until next summer. And so we're going to gradually improve. It's going to take the next summer to get there. I was just in the UK. Came back yesterday, he throws an absolute mess. I got out, but I know other people who are on a United flight, their flight got canceled because of a crew shortage, or it said crew when they were told, they were notified just a couple of hours beforehand. Couldn't get rebooked by you guys for at least a couple of days. Ultimately had to fly on another airline back, it raises the question. There's so much demand to go to Europe, but when people hear these stories or they see the lines at Heathrow, does it cut into the future demand and how do you do better by the customer? Yeah, so that's the reason we're pulling down the schedule is to do better by the customer. And because this is frustrating to us, we told Heathrow how many passengers we were going to have. Heathrow basically told us you guys are smoking something. You're not going to have that many and they didn't staff for it. And so we're being forced to cancel flights because Heathrow can't accommodate the flights. That winds up being crew issues because you've got flights that are delayed and the ripple effects just spill over. But it's really frustrating to what it means to our customers, especially when we planned to prepare for this. And we staffed up to support this level of operation. That's the reason that we're cutting capacity for the balance of the year. We're essentially going to keep flying the same amount that we are today. Which is less than we intended to. But not grow the airline until we can see evidence that the whole system can support it because we and our customers on the front line, like we were prepared for London Heathrow. But when London Heathrow calls us a day before and says, you've got to cancel three flights tomorrow and you've got to cap the load factors at 75%. Like there's just nothing we can do. And so what we're doing is just building more buffer into the system so that we have more opportunity to accommodate those customers. Scott Siri has a question for you. Sarah, go ahead. Hi, hi, Scott Sarah eisen here, fast money set. A lot of the problems you're talking about gas prices and capacity haven't heard much on demand. Are you seeing any shift here when it comes to the consumer, especially in the U.S. as we start to worry about the impact of high inflation and higher interest rates and what that's going to do for consumer discretionary spending? Yeah, the short answer is we see we really don't see any evidence of it at all. And I think one of the things that's unique for United Airlines in particular, but even aviation in general is that while we probably do have a slow economy happening right now and all else equal that would cause revenue to go down. We have a tailwind that increasing every day, which is we're still in the COVID recovery. Business travel, we expect another step up. Everyone tells us all our clients tell us to give you another step up in September. International is still on the comeback. So we're just in the 6 or 7th inning at a COVID recovery. And that, for now, at least is counteracting any of the headwinds from a slowing economy. And we actually see 5 point sequential improvement in revenue in the third quarter. So given
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"We start off with an earnings alert on Nike, the sportswear stock volatile after hours, the conference call just getting underway. Let's get straight to Sarah eisen, who's got all the details. Hi, Sarah. Hi, Melissa. Well, some relief, at least in the stock initially, Nike's numbers on the top and bottom line did come in better than expected, but clearly Nike is dealing with some challenges. China, for instance, where sales there dropped 19%. Also, overall gross margins decreased and missed at 45%. The company blaming their China issue largely likely marked down of inventories in China as much of the market was shut down due to COVID. As much as 60% of Nike's business was shut down at one point during the quarter. Another issue, the stronger dollar, sales overall, this quarter were down 1%. They would have been up 3%, if not for the impact of the stronger dollar. And Nike's still dealing with supply chain and shipping problems, which have held back some sales here at home in North America, where revenues were down about 5% on the plus side. Nike direct to consumer and its digital business are still going strong. Up 15% for digital would have been even higher, if not for that pesky stronger dollar. On the conference call, which is just kicking off, we will expect guidance. We usually get that from the CFO on the call. And there will be questions, Melissa, on how the brand is doing. Now that China has finally reopened, China has been a key growth driver for Nike in the past few years. It's had some hiccups. First, there was some nationalist sentiment there and some of the boycotts. And then these COVID shutdowns. Also, we'll be listening for anything on just brand heat in general. Nike has weathered COVID and the supply issues before on the back of a very strong brand. Its ability to resonate with the consumer and ability to get pricing power as a result, that's going to be key for investors to figure out whether that's still going strong to determine whether they should look through some of these headwinds that are outside of Nike's control like currency and COVID lockdowns. And just overall Melissa, this is a stock that's down 30% this year. Worse than the market, worse than the retail trade on anticipation of some of these issues. And bottom line, it was a 9 cent beat. Sarah, thanks. Keep us posted, Sarah eisen, who is out of course an Aspen. Guy dami, Sarah, I think the context of the move that's already mentioned is important going into the quarter that the stock is down tremendously, but still guidance is still outstanding. From one 79 down to current levels. So here's the way I think you tried to stock one O 6 was the prior all time high, way back in January of 2020 before the world changed precipitously. But I look at Nike the following way. Valuation, yeah, it's probably cheap compared to where it's been historically at 25 times next year. This is what caught my eye. 23% year over year inventory builds suggest that margins are going to still be under pressure. So I think there's further room to the downside, but not a lot. I don't think you can get killed owning Nike here. I just think there's a better entry point. Karen, what's your take? Are you kind of agree with guy? There was one thing in the earnings that I was sort of curious about, which was there's an income tax benefit. I thought there would be income tax. I don't know if that matters at all. But one other thing that I think is important. Of course, China and the read through not just to Nike, but to other companies like Starbucks, someone like that, but also our investors going to care about a FX miss or not. It seems like we're kind of just dismissing it. And I don't know maybe that's the right thing to do. I'm not really sure, but that had been one of the things sort of weighing on stocks. This idea that, you know, the dollar is so strong and then when they repatriate earnings from foreign company, foreign countries that they'll have lower earnings. So we're seeing that a little bit, 3%, I think, was the change and but I think the streets sort of ignoring it. Maybe this was good enough. And the P E multiple is guy said, has come down a lot. It's still significantly over the market multiple. It should be. It's a premier company. I don't own it. The question to me is just how much over the market multiple should it be? I'd probably, I'd rather be in Lulu. Yeah, I think it's not surprising to see that it beat estimates here because earnings revisions came down so strongly here over the last couple of weeks. But I think what's going to be really important to look out for Nike is really, what is their guidance going to be? Because I think when we look at the consumer, seeing, are they still spending on something like sneakers, which are, are you like a high ticket item for some of your consumers out there? I think it's really going to go to show that with some of your other companies earnings here at looking for it. Is the consumer still strong. I think that's ultimately what the markets are so worried about. Nike itself, I really like that it's still priced well below its 5 year average when you look at his price to earnings. It could still have some ups and downs as China's reopening, but long term, it's still a really good company that's pretty cheap right now. So I think he'll be a longer term opportunity. Yeah, two words constant currency. I think that's going to be something that's going to be a theme of Q two earnings. And you know, when we think about Mel, you just brought up the point about the currency impact to U.S. multinationals, Microsoft, of what less than a month ago, they pre announced a quarter. We were all kind of scratching our heads. They were blaming on currency. It didn't seem like it was that big of an impact for a company that does that sort of revenue. So we're going to hear that a lot. And I think that, you know, this company late cycle doing this saying this is really important. What their guidance is going to be. It might just kind of set the stage for Q two earnings in general and what people are going to get comfortable with as we think about a period of time right now where visibility is poor on multiple fronts. So it's not just these headwinds like a strong dollar or COVID shutdowns, but there's a lot of crosscurrents too. Shouldn't there be, I mean, we're all looking for the conference call and the guidance, of course, but for China, you would think that things would be in a complete upswing that the guys that they would give for China would be unbelievable because of the reopening plus all these measures to help the economy, right? I mean, all these things we've seen a tech rally in China, and that's got to get people feeling pretty much you would think, right? And if Tim were here, he's clearly not. But he would say that, you know, Nike's still in North American story. I mean, they did north of $5 billion in North America. It's only one and a half billion in China. So as much as that's a growth engine, this is still a North American story. So unless they get their act together here in terms of sales in terms of margins, it's hard to get your arms around the stock. I understand what you're saying a 100% if there's going to be this reopening in China with that potential growth driver. This stock becomes very cheap at 25 times. I just don't know if we're there yet. But the notion that we are no longer locked down in that part of the world is good for supply chain issues. And that had been a worry by analysts at least in terms of feeding North American supply and demand that supply chain issues would prevent that from happening. And so we'd see a muted level of sales in North America simply because they can't get the product here. Yeah, and I think that's going to continue to be a story here. I think there's going to be pockets of some of these situations that kind of ease. I'll just say this. Sarah mentioned that China was down 19%. Year over year. And she also mentioned that there was kind of a nationalistic pushback a little bit. And I think that's something that we might start to see increasingly so. You might see it with an apple. Yeah, and Starbucks. So there's a lot of U.S. multinationals that I think are not out of the Woods, and I don't think they have a lot of clarity because they don't have situation in Europe or the situation in Asia. That looks anywhere like it did in 2019 before the pandemic. Yeah. Well, we got some breaking news here on the banks we want to get to announcing their first post stress test capital distribution plans. Leslie picker has been watching them all come out. Leslie, what's the latest? Hey, Melissa so broadly speaking, we're seeing a few of these firms increase their dividends,.
Squawk Pod
"sarah eisen" Discussed on Squawk Pod
"I'm Sarah eisen, from the open to the close. CNBC has you covered. From what's driving the market moves to how investors are reacting, we'll guide you through each trading session and bring you some of the biggest names and newsmakers in the business. Be sure to follow and listen to CNBC's closing bell podcast today. Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC.
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"After its latest report. The company's conference call is underway. Sarah eisen is listening in. Hi, Sarah. Hi, Melissa. Nike again, showing its resilience here in the face of everything going on in the world, slower global growth, of course, weakness around Europe potentially in the war and Ukraine, supply chain issues, John donahoe, the CEO, just kicking off the conference call. He starts as he always starts naming some of the highlights from the quarter from the sports world, including the Winter Olympics, the fact that a lot of Nike teams are live in the men's and women's March Madness brackets. That sort of stuff that keeps investors excited. As far as the results, two things that were positive surprises that I wanted to flag, digital growth, 19% there. That was better than expected. Also laughing lapping some tough comparisons from the middle of the pandemic last year. So that was a highlight. Also saw some weakness there on the Adidas quarter recently. Also direct to consumer. This has been Nike's really strong force and it's higher profit business where it sells directly through its sneaker app digital or its stores also growing 15%. If you go beneath the surface, some of the worries in terms of the geographies came in pretty much in line. China sales, for instance, at $2 billion, that was what the market was expecting. It's a decline of 5%, but it was out there. North American sales, the key market up 9%. Also, coming in line with what was expected. Now coming into this quarter, the stock was down 22% for the year so far. There was a lot of hand wringing over issues, like supply chain, which has hurt Nike sales in the past, and the company's CFO in the earnings release does note that the supply chains are ongoing and says that marketplace demand continues to significantly exceed available inventory supply. On that note, inventories were a little bloated, they're up 15% from last year, but the company did say consumer demand is helping to offset that. So Melissa, the key will be from here. What does this company say about the outlook? The outlook and the guidance always comes on the earnings call. So I should expect that from the CFO. In a few minutes, I'll let you know what they say, but that's going to be key, especially around China, given potential deterioration in the outlook because of the rolling shutdowns around COVID and supply chain. And what they're going to say overall, given that we're in a different picture here with global growth than we were just three months ago. So far, it's all been coming in either in line or better than expected, and that's why you see the stock reacting with the sigh of relief. All right, Sarah, keep us posted. Thank you, Sarah eisen, from the NYSE on Nike. So the quarter under February 28th. So that includes some of the impact that we saw in terms of commodities, supply chain issues, et cetera, but the nuance and the contours, I think, of demand throughout the quarter will be key to him. They will. I don't think Nike can have outlook into the end of the year right now. And I think you have to be careful here. But there's no question. We want to hear it. This is what I said. These are the types of headlines we've looked at various times with Nike. It's been a leader. Dan's right. We don't know. We know what maybe the fed is pricing. And we don't want multiple the market is going to put on stocks that are in the face of a different economy as we get into the third quarter. And I think we hope Nike can do that. But if you think about DT sales, up 17% off a really tough comp and think about where we were a year ago, when that's all people could do in many cases, it is actually a way to deal with lean inventories. You walk into a lot of stores. They don't have the Nike products go straight to Nike. Certainly helps margins. Long Nike, but at 36 to 37 times in this environment times next year, be careful. Go back and look at last summer, the stock sold off. It traded, I think, from the mid one 50s, down to sort of one 48, one 50, and then bounced to an all time high. The 50% retracement of that recent all time high in this load we just made comes in around one 50 and I will tell you Mel because I remember like that large animal that large land animal within rhino. Rhino, I have a memory like one that Carter work was on last week and said exactly this would happen. And we pointed out the opportunity for it to get back to that one 48 level. So I think it actually gets there, I think you fade it when it does. 36, 35 forward Brian Kelly, what does that price in in your view? Tim said, be careful. Yeah, well, listen, if prices in a consumer that is going to continue to spend and a Federal Reserve and an economy that's going to be that you're going to be okay with. I happen to think that's not right. I happen to think that Powell just told you they do not want the consumer to spend more. That's what demand destruction is all about, but it's probably what's been priced into this stock down from a $180. So I'm kind of with guy on this up to one 50. You probably fade that. You get a bear market rally here, and then when people realize that the consumer is not going to hold up, that's when you want to sell this thing again. Yeah, but the consumer is pretty, I mean, they're holding up right now. They've got good balance sheets. They've got jobs, Dan. Maybe this is the exact kind of stock you want to be in in this environment. What show are you participating in here? I mean, I don't know if you saw where gas at the pump is where mortgage rates are going where the fed is raising rates here and how quickly they're doing it. Wait, Tim, you just I rolled the I have return here, buddy. I can see that. That was wrong. And I roll as much as it was a smirk. I just want you to be very clear on that. I mean, I'll just say it's like, to me, when you're looking at estimates for earnings and sales to be up double digits here, you know, sales expected to be up next year, fiscal 2023, up 13, 14% and earnings up 20% and on a P E to growth, Tim might say at 27 times next year, that might be reasonable, but you have to believe that number for next year. The good news here is all that discussion about DTC, they're expected to have the highest gross margin in fiscal 2023, then they've had in a desk decade, about 47 and a half percent or so. And that really does speak to some of the changes that have been underfoot. See what I did there for this company over the last few years. I just don't know if those out your estimates are reliable right now. Coming up. At Disney dispute, relations strange between CEO bob Iger and former head. Excuse me. Between CEO bob chapek and former head.
Squawk Pod
"sarah eisen" Discussed on Squawk Pod
"And it looks smart now, but. Cheese will be next. Next, on squawk pod, all bets are off on this year's NCAA tournament. Who's upset at the upsets? Who couldn't care less? Why the cult of March Madness could be shrinking? And what some peacocks might do to change that. We've got CNBC sports reporter jabari young. If you haven't seen a lot of interest in the NCAA tourney over the last few years has been dropping, but when you got a Cinderella story like this, it's always good for ratings. I'm Sarah eisen, from the open to the close. CNBC has you covered from what's driving the market moves to how investors are reacting. We'll guide you through each trading session and bring you some of the biggest names and newsmakers in the business. Be sure to follow and listen to CNBC's closing bell podcast today. Up track stand Joe Biden. You're listening to squawk pod. Here's Joe kernan. He upsets continuing over the weekend in the men's NCAA tournament joining us now for a bracket recap. Jabari young sports business reporter for CNBC dot com. Why do we still call them upsets jabari? I mean, can you imagine a year where we weren't just saying this is nuts? It's madness. I guess that's why it meant. But I even think there probably it's about even it's about average for the surprises we've seen this year. There's the great Cinderella. There's the big powerful teams that have that have fallen by the wayside. Not that different than previous years. Yeah, it's not that different. You know, at the Philadelphia sixers and Dallas Mavericks game on Friday night. Now as Jason Kidd after his press conference and I said, hey, man, who do you have in the NCAA terminus man listen? It's all about who's hot at the right time and you gotta give it to Saint Peter's, they're getting hot at the right time. You know, Joe, I heard you mention that NBC should sponsor them. I was thinking the same thing. You took the words right out of my mouth. But listen of all the seas left, Houston is a good pick to continue to go for. I like Michigan. I'm rooting for duke because you know you want to see my shazi, leave on a good note and that team couldn't even get him an ACC championship or his last home game. So, you know, I think duke has a very good shot, but listen, do not count out Saint Peter's. This team, they have nothing to lose. They're playing like it. And remember the last time that this team had a big upset about prior to beating Kentucky was in 1968 when they beat duke and NIT. So, you know, this team has a lot of swag and they're going right down to Philadelphia to play produce. So they're going to have a good home crowd. So listen, keep your eye, and that only about a hundred bets was placed on Saint Peter's before attorney, so you know, Joe, if you can get him right now and get some of that money if you're smart because you can't pick against Saint Peter's right now that this team is playing really well. No way, shaheen's hallway is going to seat and hall. There's just no way that's not happening. Don't you think? The coach? You know, I hope not. You know, listen, you know, when you see a small college like this and you see them playing so well. You see them living up to the say that again? That's where he went. That there's an AD over there that hired him at Saint Peter's and maybe you won't go. If he goes all the way now. No, not now. Not now. This team is playing well. I don't think it's possible. I think that'd be good for that school. I like a stay there. Stay there. Don't leave. Just yet. I know, look what happened to my friend Chris Mack. Who left it? I guess we got to get this back to business, but it is amazing. And Purdue, I think the big what do we call them? The Big Ten. They're always overrated. It seems like to me, Ohio State wasn't as good as it thought. Illinois never as good as it's producing good, though, don't they? But they got a chance, probably think beautiful. Again, it's about who's hot and who's not. If they come out and miss shots and they don't play well, this Saint Peter's team is going to take them to task. Remember, give me the underdog. I love the underdogs because the underdogs they have nothing to lose when they step out on their court. They're already predicted to lose. Everybody's already picking against them. So Purdue has to play well. All the pressures on Purdue obviously, you know, everybody's going to pick them because they're the top team and you would think that they would win this game. And I definitely think they'll win, but again, I'm rooting for Saint Peter's, I would love to see the Cinderella story. It's good for ratings. It's good for the tournament and it's good for the NCAA who, you know, you haven't seen a lot of interest in the NCAA tourney over the last few years has been dropping, but when you gotta send a brother story like this, it's always good for ratings. Well, that's what I was going to ask you about, because there's just more people streaming. I thought the betting dynamic was going to boost ratings. I thought they were going to be all time high. And maybe when you add it all up with streaming and the legacy media, all that, maybe it will be above. Has there been a declining interest? Why? Well, you know, if you look at the polling, you know, American gaming association comes out and you know they say about 40, 45 Americans would bet on attorney and debt by $3.1 billion. That's down from 2019 when they projected 47 million. And you know, I asked that question throughout the weekend. Like, why is the tournament? Why is the interest down? And one of the interesting comments that I had was because a lot of people don't know of the players because they have a lot of one and dones. You're not allowed to grow. You know, in college football, you see these guys with three, four years, and a lot of people are interested, but you know, when you don't have a lot of names and determines, household names, that kind of the interest goes down. But I tell you, a lot of people aren't going through the brackets to bet. They're just going straight out and going to the sports betting books and just picking their bet. You know, like mattress Mack, you know? He just said, look, give me an east team that's going to come out and win the whole thing. But I think that's a part of it that a lot of people still do not know a lot of these young kids because when they come out, they're quick, they're one, two years and they're out of there. You want some guys to stay longer, big names to stay longer so you can grow with them and I think you'll see the interest kind of creep back up if that happens to be the case. Yeah, you mentioned Houston. I write from the very beginning. I guess I saw a lot of them because they play Cincinnati a few times in that conference, but they're pretty Memphis. Memphis almost won. Did you see that? I thought they were going to win. One three pointer can make a difference in the last two minutes. You see, so many, so many bounce around and don't go in. It's like, that's when the team that was down needed to do it. If you don't hit it, it doesn't happen. And then you're going to get it from the guys that are ahead and it's over. It's pretty exciting though. I love that. That Memphis game was pretty good, so what I tell you, listen, you and see, okay, that UNC barely gave the best game of the weekend open. That was exciting. And I was thinking that UNC almost was going to blow it, but they didn't, but I thought that was the best game of the weekend. That's going to be who they play. I think at UCLA, that's going to be a great guess. That's going to be an unbelievable guess. North Carolina. What do you pick the rest of the way? Your brackets. I only got two, I got Arizona winning, and they barely be okay. I had to go to overtime last night. But I don't have enough to win this pool because I don't have enough of the possibilities for the elite 8 or for the finals. I'm all my guys. I should never go on the dog, man. Stick with Saint Peter's. Peacocks. Yeah. Yeah, nobody picked them. No way. Jabari young. People did. I'll pick them next year. What? Thank you. Yeah, I'm sure they get a bump. The following year. So you see the beauty of magic. You saw that immediately. You picked that up immediately of just that it's just a perfect. Yeah. I mean, it's something that you can't really like manufacture a nickname. Well, you're trying. No, it's organic. It sticks or it doesn't. It's organic. We'll have to know. They've never had nicknames in stick to me. I don't know why. There is one. Convey fun. Yeah, that's true. Not for hair. Yeah..
Squawk Pod
"sarah eisen" Discussed on Squawk Pod
"I don't know if it's 13,500 that have been lost from Russia's social and killed. I don't know if it's closer to 6000, but in any event, it's probably more than we lost in 20 years in both Iraq and Afghanistan. We saw this coming. I think yesterday after Joe Manchin made that move Sarah bloom Raskin is withdrawn from consideration as President Biden's nominee for fed vice chair for banking supervision one day after the democratic senator from West Virginia said he opposed her nomination and you would have needed someone to flip on the impossible that a Republican would have. Susan Collins looked unlikely. She said no. She said, no, and you had other concerns that were Murkowski. I don't know. That's out and about again. Talking. Making her confirmation unlikely who withdrawal could clear the way for confirmation for President Biden's other fed picks. They've been kind of a hold on those, including chair Jay Powell, has been nominated for a second term to lead the Central Bank. I had forgotten that they put all the nominations together as one. And it was a package deal. Pal was already renovated. It was already reconfirmed. Probably a good thing to get your fed chairman confirmed, given the difficulties they're going to be facing right now. This is my favorite story. Is this good? This is a good one, I think. I always like fall. I hate the spring week. Do you know how tired I am? I know, but I like falling back. Yeah, but I hate springing forward. It's worth the trip. Because you never get the hour back. You never do. Yesterday, the Senate passed legislation to put an end to the biannual changing of the clocks. The case for permanent daylight saving time is clear. So let's go from polar to solar. Cutting back on the sun during the fall and winter is a drain on the American people. We must pass the sunshine protection act with almost no warning and no debate. The chamber at unanimously passed with their calling the sunshine protection. He's going to be against that. Which would make daylight savings time permanent. Bill's fate in the house is uncertain, but the United States tried to ditch the clock switching before. That was back in 1974. After a widespread discontent though, they went back to flipping the clocks twice a year, but this is the time of year when we pay for it. It's been so tired in that way. Oh, no. Been that way since World War I. Yeah, and what is it is it is around agriculture. It gets for farmers, yeah. Which I understand, and I don't really want kids standing out waiting for buses for dark. In the morning. It'd be good if you could switch back and forth for when you wanted the light. It would be good if you just accepted the light hours in the day, but I don't think we have the power to do that. That's right. It's kind of up to the sun. And there's still there's long days in summer and short days in winter, but they're all. Well, it's been full. They're all 24. They're all exactly 24 hours. We've made dinner late every night because I keep getting fooled, not realizing how late it is. Like, oh my gosh. That's not good. That's not good to go to bed at 8 o'clock after a late dinner. Take it from me. Yeah. You get fat, you don't digest things well, you don't sleep well. Coming up. Personal experience. Yes. Very recently. Yes, I got so many personal experiences. Oh my God. I'm here. Had to be here for you. And you had to be here for me. Next, on squawk pod. Legendary investor and hedge fund manager, Lee cooperman, weighs in on the markets, the fed and tells us how he's putting his money to work. Even though I'm not over optimistic, I do think stocks represent the best game in town. It may be the best asset in the bad neighborhood. And later, a stunning shake up in the Starbucks C suite. But one that's been brewing for a while, the company's chair melody hooks and joins us with all the transition details. It's had a great job for us at Starbucks and really wants to move on to do something else now. And then we have this MVP. One of the greatest players in the game on the bench, so the board called them up. I'm Sarah eisen, from the open to the close. CNBC has you covered. From what's driving the market moves to how investors are reacting, we'll guide you through each trading session and bring you some of the biggest names and newsmakers in the business. Be sure to follow and listen to CNBC's closing bell podcast today. Welcome back to squawk pod from CNBC. Leon cooperman is a billionaire investor longtime hedge fund manager and philanthropist. He is chairman and CEO of his family office omega. Cooperman has a Wall Street career dating back to the 1960s. He rose from modest beginnings, growing up in The Bronx and putting himself through Columbia business school before a long career at Goldman Sachs, investing his own money now, cooperman's portfolio includes some large cap technology names, healthcare, even casino stocks. He joined Joe kerning and Becky quick on our TV broadcast this morning to discuss the recent market swings, inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and how a busy news cycle impacts where he's putting his money now. I'll hand it off to Becky. Lee, it's really good to see you this morning. There's a lot on the table. Yep, yep, nice to be with you. So what are you thinking right now? The last time we talked to you, you were talking about how you were a fully invested bear as your situation changed at this point. Are you more pessimistic? Are you more optimistic? I would say more pessimistic and less than fully invested. I think the Ukraine situation is serious. I can't handicap it. I basically, you know, we got a madman running Russia and I think, again, I have no particular expertise here, so I want to be careful in making sure that this and at opinions are like noses. Everybody has one. I think Putin is a dead man. He knows it. And the question really is, is he go quietly? Or do you try to take the rest of the world with him when he goes? And I don't know the answer to it. You know, he's got nuclear capability, which is troublesome. And I think that complicates the situation. But I really, when I was more optimistic, I said that I was long-term bearish because I really felt that the nation was following very inappropriate fiscal monetary policies. You know, I think I said this on your program. Last time I said if power write an inflation, I'd tip my hat to him. I mean, 64% of a typical business course is labor. Labor is not going down, you know? And the commodity inflation, every executive I talked to just tells me about how the questions are out of sight. So I don't disagree with those who think inflation may moderate to some degree from 8 or 9%, maybe 5%. That's more than twice what the fed's target is. So we've had very inappropriate monetary policies. We've been inappropriate fiscal policies, and either we're going to have to pay the piper or we're going to get currency. Just think about the debt build up of the country. The station was founded in 1776. We had no national debt. In 2017, there's 241 years later. We had national debt of 20 trillion from 2017 to 2021. We've got 20 trillion to 30 trillion in four years. That's a growth rate in debt for an excess of the growth rate of the economy. So I would say I'm worried about fiscal and worried about monetary policy. Interest rates are far too low for what's going on in the economy. I remember over the course of my career that I used to get a real return in bonds if you say the inflation rate is running 8% and then ten years a little over 2% if a negative return. And I think that that's got to change. And we're facing a regime of rising interest rates rising taxes, fiscal situation is out of whack. And continued higher inflation. And I come down to questioning myself, what is the appropriate multiple for the market? I say the appropriate multiple in my view is about 18 times in 18 times to 25 or whatever the number is in the S&P earnings. Basically, it's about 4000 and a little bit above that. So we're not undervalued. We're overvalued. And I think conditions are going to deteriorate to some degree. You think we've already seen the highs for the year with the stock markets? Well, I'd say at least a 50% probable, look, the volatility is unbelievable. A year ago, you guys were talking about negative oil prices. And then we go to a $130 in a year. So there's a lot of paper trading hands. But I would say that, yes, I think that the highs are in for the year. And if we go to a new high, everybody very modest amount, and I would be aggressively selling. And you know, I made my money as a bull. I'm not a bear. I'm not short many things. And I say on the plus side, I think we're in the land of the blind and what I'm in is king. I'm not keen about investing a lot in China. I think given Europe's proximity to Russia would say they're not going to be a favorite place to invest. So there are plenty of cheap stocks in the United States. So, you know, I'm flying playing things to do even though I'm not overly optimistic. I do think stocks represent the best game in town, but maybe the best asset in the bad neighborhood. Well, let's talk specifically about those in just a moment, but if you are under invested, that means you have money sitting on the site in cash. Is that for an opportunity? Because if it's a high inflation like that, that's you don't want cash either. Well, you know, sometimes the most painful asset is the right asset to hold. So I would say, given everything going around the world, I don't mind having some cash. Again, you know, I'm not going to compete with the S&P 500. I run my own money, my goal in life is to make money for two reasons. One, if I make money, it validates my views and I have a certain amount of pride and arrogance like everybody else I want to be right. I don't want to be wrong. And number two, I veer marked all my money for charity and I like to give away more money. So if I'm right, I have more money to give away. And that's kind of my mantra. You don't have a lot of support. How much do you have in cash right now that makes you comfortable? What percent? I would say about 10%, which is, you know, a lot of dollars. And I've been very lucky. I have more money than I need. I would say that it doesn't bother me. I find things to do, but I'm limited by my concern about the macro picture. And I'm not interested in being fully invested. I'm certainly not interested in being a margin. And I don't care about the S&P 500. I care about absolute dollars. You've been looking at energy and investing in energy for a while. I came into last year, you know, a little nervous at the moment because when I came into last year, we had a very overweight energy position. I turned to be right. So I had a very good year last year. Family officers up about 35%. I think energy stocks are cheap relative to the commodity. I think most of the stocks were involved in discount maybe $65 oil. We're currently about 95 and this county about $3 gas and Carly gets about four 75. They're generating enormous cash flow, and I don't see the administration doing the right thing. You know, it used to be drill drill drill. You know, now they're lower the gas tax, which I get stimulates consumption. They don't understand it. They're not capitalists. You know, I have a lot of things that bother me. You know, I don't like the leadership in Washington, you know, both on both sides. You know, we have the leadership at a crisis environment. Right now we're not in a crisis. We're moving towards one. Labor seems to be getting the upper hand. Which is a change. Fixed income seems totally mispriced. I don't think the 25 basis points of the issue today, the issue is what is a dialog going to be from pal. And he's been very wrong. And he seems to be have elevated societal issues relative to inflation as his concern and we'll see if he changes the dialog. But I think he should. I think Larry summers is a brilliant economist. He's in the right track. I agree with Larry. What's your best idea right now of all the things you're looking at? Well, it's extreme. Your life is funny. You know, it's very complicated and I want to take too much time on it. Life as far as I'm negative and bonds, and my largest position to family office is legato debt. Legato owns about 35 megahertz of spectrum. It shows you how paralyzed the government is. They've spent ten years trying to get this thing licensed. All of a sudden, the Department of Defense, I think bogus Lee raised some issues about the spectrum to figure the needs, the FCC 5G 5G amongst other things. The FCC study this issue for 5 years, 5 years, and concluded by a 5 to zero bipartisan vote that the Department of Defense had no case. The first lean paper, which was trading around 76 cents in the dollar, has a 15 and a half percent pick coupon guaranteed to be paid to the end of 2023. So you're going to get 31 points of interest. You can get 24 points of capital appreciation. So I can make about 55 points on a 76 investment and the question you have to answer is, what is the asset worth? I think the asset is worth materially in excess of the value of the bonds, the accretive value of the bonds a billion, and I think the asset they have is probably worth 12, 14, 15, 16 trillion, $1 billion. So it's often and we tend to go after beaten track. I like a couple energy companies in Canada. You know, one I particularly like run by the way, the smartest guys in Canada, Michael rose, is tourmaline, and then the other one, his breath in law runs paramount resources. Paramount resources is like a 25 $26 stock. They have an energy portfolio of $4 a share in non income producing energy stocks. They'll be added debt by the third quarter of this year that generating about four or $500 million of excess cash beyond the dividend and the CAPEX is covered. So you have a debt free energy coming in less than three times free cash flow. You know, I got to own something like that. And he's got a lot of screen in the game. The riddell family owns half the company which is about a billion and a half, $2 billion investment. A smart guy. So, you know, I'm funny playing things to do. 5 Cigna. I'm more old economy oriented, but I spoke with the manager of Cigna yesterday. Stock is about 9 or ten times earnings to buy back a lot of stock. The earnings are growing decent balance sheet. You know, I'm playing things to do, but I have to say that I have a conservative view of the world. And I think Biden's a totally mispriced. So I have no interest in bonds in legato is really more like an equity, but I think that that's like nothing is a layup in the world we live in, but it's close to a layup, as I know. You usually are talking about names that are a little off the beaten track, but two of your big holdings are in very commonly held stocks. Technology names, Google and Microsoft. Well, you know, I would say that my window technology. I'm not a technology expert, but I think Google and Microsoft are great windows and technology. They're reasonably priced. They're higher valued than they were four or 5 years ago, but they're not excessively valued. I've made this point in the program in the past, but you go back to two periods of excess, 1972, nifty 50. Avon was 60 times earnings polar with 90 times earnings. I don't think 25, 30 multiples are high. Back in 1972, the ten year government was 6 and a half percent. And fed funds was to think about four or 5%. You know, we're talking about fed funds, maybe getting to 200 basis points over the next year, and the ten year government is two. You're going to go up. But they're not expensive relative to interest rates, and they're my window one technology. They forgot more about technology than I know. So I have my one of my biggest positions is Google, followed by Microsoft. And they've treated me well when I pay taxes, so I'm not going to sell them. I've sold off some options against my position, because I think leadership in the market is changing. But I don't know. I would say, I think we're in a market of stocks rather than stock market. If I had a guess, the analogy I use, I use two analogies. One is I talk about the pharaoh. The pharaoh and familiar with the Bible had a dream. They dream we would have 7 lean years following the 7 fat years. His dream was interpreted by Joseph in the Bible. I'm not making 7 year forecast, but I think we've pulled demand forward with inappropriate fiscal monetary policies. We have to start addressing it. The other story I like to tell is, you know, I got my MBA from Columbia business school in January 31st of 1967 and a 6 month old kid who's a very smart 55 years old now, basically, I had a national defense education act student loan to repay, I had no money in the bank. So by definition, I was broke. I couldn't afford a vacation. I went to work the next day, February 1st, 67 for my 25 year career at Goldman Sachs. February 1st, 67. That was a thousand. In 1982, it was a thousand. So I'm not making a 15 year forecast to make a 7 year forecast. I think the market is fully valued and generally speaking, the things that push to market up or changing, you know, we had a very, very accommodative fed. They're changing. The pace of change is the issue. We have an oncoming, we have more concern about the economy. Given what's going on in Russia and inflation, I think is more concerned about the economy. And my heart goes out to the people in Ukraine. They're fighting heroic fight. But it's crazy what's going on..
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Years. What are you gonna do with a new chicken? I mean, McDonald's, by the way, is ruining the day. They rid themselves of CMG. Number one, we've said that before. Number two, the stock is too cheap. Now, data is saying, what are you nuts? It's trading at 35 times next year's numbers. Yeah, you're right about that, Dan, except that you have 30% EPS growth and digital continues to kill it. I think it's almost 42% of sales. Margins are improving. They're uniquely positioned, analyst words, not mine to take advantage of what's going on. I think the average price target 1800 or so, that's where the stock should be trading. I was on with you and Sarah eisen on the closing Bill, you recall. Yes. On February 8th, when they reported and we talked about the burrito blow it, yes, I said it because you knew I was going to say it then. I'll still say it today. Huge CMP. We also learned there's a burrito season. But there's seasonality in, yes, there is season straight from the horse's mouth, from the CEO of chipotle. Tim, just quickly. I love how chipotle can come out and just say that they're going to, you know, this new product, which has existed in other restaurants for decades and bam, the stock goes higher. Bam. Hold on a second. What is burrito season? I'm not sure I would you think it would be. What would you think it would be? It could be something cold. I mean, so warm. Yeah, I would hunker. Comfort you. It's spring. I would hunker in with a burrito. And so I guess we passed burrito season guy. And I think it's probably good news for your family. I do think you got a dynamic here where all the things that we've talked about for some of these other companies, especially in terms of price inputs and multiples that people are unwilling to pay. Look, as a guy that was unwilling to pay 50 times on CMG, I certainly don't think I want to go and buy it now, even if it's down at 30 times forward. I think you've got a case here where we have pulled forward a lot. And I think the multiple in the stock never made sense. And I think at some point you pay for it. Up next, rivian on the move after reporting results. Shares dropping after its report will go inside the numbers, plus Amazon surging after its big stock split announcement and the move could turn the ecommerce giant into an option powerhouse,.
CNBC's Fast Money
"sarah eisen" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Eight month winning streak posting its worst month since september. But is there way to play the energy space. We've got some answers whilst we may have one big earnings behind us. But we're not done yet from alibaba uber. We've got a slew of big names on deck. We'll bring you the one name. Each trader is watching. We start off with an amazon smackdown. The ecommerce giant raising the red flag on its future in a big way seeing shares punished to end the week stocks thinking more than seven and a half percent. That's its biggest loss. Since may of last year take a look. Some of the other online retailers falling alongside amazon threat up wayfair oetzi all dropping more than seven percent so doesn't move amazon. Send a bigger warning signal about the consumer. And maybe even the overall market dan. I'll start with you. You got an epic threat on amazon on twitter today. It was really interesting in the we were talking about amazon for most at twenty twenty that you know even when in the throes of the sell off in february march twenty twenty amazon only went down twenty five percent peak to trough that was dramatically outperformed the snp that was down thirty five percent and it made a new high very quickly and then it closed up. On the year up fifty five percent their sales were up astounding they a hundred billion dollars in year-over-year sales from two thousand and nine thousand so they put forward a lot of behavior they obviously accelerated a lot of behavior and that was great for amazon. But that long consolidation we've seen basically since september of twenty twenty kind was telling you that that twenty twenty one was going to look a little different and going forward the gross structure again. I think it's fine in this range. A guy adani said last night. Maybe you see it down back towards that twenty nine hundred three thousand rains. That was the double bottom ish level in those so. I don't think there's any reason to panic. That being said sarah eisen just said we had some data. We had worse-than-expected gdp. We had home sales. That weren't that great consumer confidence so this might be a precursor for what we see for the back when you look at those levels thirty to sixty nine levels of two hundred eight moving average the june low was thirty. One seventy two. We didn't even take a peek at either one of those levels but this is a high flier. There's no doubt about it. Are you going to get that. Ceo growing pains now going in. No you didn't even mention the new. Ceo right does it mean anything. So it doesn't mean anything yet until it means something so can they turn the stick it on and off the way they did when basil's was there and i'm not sure they can. I believe the stocks okay. But i think you'll get a better remarks. Yeah i'm sorry question marks but also can it be as good as it was. And i think people are naturally going to say let's take a breather here and then we'll get back. I ain't that the question for a lot of stocks than the stock market. These days brian kelly and in particular the retailers that we showed you at the top. Those are all retailers. Really benefited from consumers being locked down shut in bored out of their gourds. There's nothing else to do except go onto oetzi and by you know crocheted aprons and masks and things like that and now you're wondering are things ever going to be as good. That's the question for amazon. That's a question for oetzi. That's a question for threat up all of them right right. Yeah guilty on the crocheted aprons. I bought them out on those I listen i think you're right. I mean that's the question is competencies effectively had a monopoly for year. and now. everything's open back up inventories hearts if you think about you look at consumer behavior there could just gonna buy wherever they can and sometime. You can't necessarily get it at amazon. They no longer have that monopoly. I don't think amazon's going away by any means but listen. This may be the peak of their growth for this cycle and it may be for the other ones as well what we had seen in the broader macro economic data. Is that inventories. That are out of low so while we may see the economy weakened which is kinda my base case we start to see the economy weakened into q. Three hugh four year I don't know if the stock market will react. Because i think you could get this narrative of the inventory restock cycle and that actually may drive the market more than these online names. Yeah dane what's your take. I think that all the points are valid. There are some other ones that are interesting to ad. Revenues up eighty eight percent. That's a big number. Aws was strong. Obviously for data centers and people going to the cloud that's huge and so maybe while product was slightly week from a growth decelerating standpoint a lot of the other parts of the business rocking rolling. And if i'm a new ceo. I'm not going to give big guidance number so i don't blame him at all for kind of setting. The bar at a reasonable level is going to want to beat it in the future. So i would say let people write what they write. Maybe get this at a little bit cheaper price. But we're seeing at least twelve percent upside from here. So i actually think that it's nice that it took a breather and the other story from this is really underneath the surface we saw from unilever. People are going can dove to cheaper brands. And then you saw from other folks like lvmh that they can get pricing on very expensive leather goods. So i think there's a lot to learn not just from the deceleration of amazon but who's buying what. Yeah glad you mentioned. Lvmh because we have seen the luxury trade duper well grasso and that's where capri holdings comes in. So that was one of my pitches. I think we pitch it around seventeen dollars. I said it was going to one hundred dollars when you look at operating margins operating margins over twenty percent. The street actually expected twelve point eight percent. Now this is where the i gotcha..