2 Episode results for "Rusty Becker"
Fast Money 08/13/19
"Smart open open is smart. We're combining the industry expertise of ibm with the open source leadership of red hat. Let's unlock the world's potential hansel. Let's put smart to work learn more at i._b._m. Dot com slash red hat live on the nasdaq market. Overlooking new york city's times square. This is fast asked money. I'm melissa leo traders on the desk. Tim seymour marks effort chris brown and dan nathan breakout. The eggnog president trump just saved christmas socks soaring after the u._s. Delay tariffs on chinese imports ahead of the holiday shopping season everything from big tax or retail rejoicing video games clothes and toys all get a pass ask but wait the telltale indicator of global growth concerns grinchey. Oh bond market barely budged today so was was today's rally actually your last best chance to sell now. We don't want to rain on anybody's radar. A lot of people out there are very happy that that stocks rallied today but at the same time for an asset class the bond market that has moved so <hes> extraordinarily in the past week and a half or so. It's a barely move today. That's a head scratcher. Results be clear love mariah carey whenever i can get her especially in the heat of the august summer season so <hes> but what you're talking about that is is that treasury is so to stands now three basis points. We haven't been here since two thousand seven yeah the dynamic with the bond market long bon about to set historical lows. We've talked about the u._s. Curb ad nauseam awesome so let's talk about the rest of the world in germany there z._e._w. Economic confidence back in two thousand and eleven levels where we are still talking about green shoots or so it seemed so if you think about the equity markets euphoria today and is it. Is it a gift from santa wars. It truly just a reminder that the market is responding to headlines that that really are masking asking what is going on underneath the surface. Maybe as a function of trade. I look that's where the bears are lining up. <hes> i think the bulls can say if you remove trade war and you actually. She had a dynamic where we felt comfortable that <hes> geopolitics as trouble hotspots. We're not gonna take the world down that the economics for stocks down a low rate environment arm are not awful. They're not awful but we haven't removed trade where we've just said. We're gonna delay trade war for now on certain goods right so i mean the bond market is obviously obviously much more rational than the stock market stock market's moving based off of a tweet. It seems like every other week bond market much more rational. There's nothing has changed on the trade front right. I mean we just kicked the can down the road to basically save the holiday season. The market is seasonally week until october and you asked the question is now the best time to get out the last the last time to actually exit stocks and then when you add in fact the two ten is close to inverting if that happens. I think you see a full full blown l. Go sell off. I mean to be fair. We've seen the two-tenths tastes defector boy so taking something constructive happen today by somebody's saved christmas guys. The president created this latest greatest our we august one ten or one fifteen pm the s._n._p. Was in one and a half percent from all-time highs trading fabulously at three thousand and then all of a sudden. We get this his tweet about this extra ten percent on three hundred billion. This was created by them. This was a crisis created by them and saw them and i think it's very interesting that the s. and p. Five hundred while it did gaps significantly today close well below those levels it's been solved of course they created a crisis and then they solved it. They wanted like take credit for. It's ridiculous well then. I think when you look at what the message of the charge was today. Has anything changed well. We're still a no man's land right. We've been saying what between the twenty eight twenty two last monday's low twenty nine forty two. It's the fifty day moving average. We fail there now twice. I think you have to get back above twenty nine forty two thousand nine fifty level to make the case something has changed over the last week here too if you look at the internals today breath barely two and a half to one so it wasn't that big broad move that you typically get coming off good tradeable low so i think there's more work to do do here. We're going to call the all clear. I think it's premature extra to it was my final call. Yesterday i said to sell it. Thank you gapped up to buck smell and it closed up one. That's not a great. They give him what you think happened in the broad market. If you look at the bank stocks the s._n._p. Closed up one and a half percent back america closed up thirty bits. The most of them closed below one percent on the day. That's not great strength to me so as you head into retail earnings and the next week or two and you get disappointed. They're gonna give it all back. That was a bad setup that if you've got has bounced into earnings and they don't actually confirm it so to me. I actually think there's plenty of pockets of risk. The fact that we didn't close above twenty nine fifty or something like that is a problem we'll do so. I think rallies get sold here. I think people got off sides so i'm glad you brought that up. Because tim best buy was your final trade yesterday seller of best buy part of it was because of the trade war does this sort of encapsulate the danger of trading on these headlines you know the trump tweet the assumption that terrorists would go into effect september one which they're apparently not going to. Let's be clear. I mean we got c._p._i. Numbers out and i'll address your point of a bad final trait of mine last night but but we got c._p._i. Numbers today that said core c._p._i. Was also up three tenths of a percent. Not just you know ex food and energy there isn't flation but more importantly for for for for a lotta the retailers and we're going to hear this. I think from walmart <hes> but so back to best buy best buy who effectively is importing all of this stuff from asia <hes> is in a very very difficult position for a company that that to me has gone through <hes> both <hes> just the whole secular that killer shift in their business model and amazon is kind of wrecked and destroyed them but their reliance on imports from that part of the world is unlike to me any other big box retailer in the world so <hes> when i look at the look they already gave some guidance. Their last round of earnings orgy knocked it down. It's a company that to me when it changed when it trades cheap. It'll trait even cheaper as we all agreed on this death. Nothing happened today a seven percent spike in something like best buy to me. <hes> tells you just kind of anxiety. There is in that business model and we sit here. This is a big moment. There's trade. There's hong kong. There's brexit. There's argentina and we have the s. and p. off from the highs. Is that enough given what the headline risk his now. If you put this in context of the last six or seven months maybe that is enough right every single every single time enough to get you back to the prior high and then maybe trade one or two percent above it because as we talked about last night since january two thousand eighteen when we had this blow off top act after the tax cuts in two thousand seventeen we basically just is beat three incremental new highs and it's not enough and we flush after all of them the most the biggest one was three percent above a prior. Hi what's the lesson of of today's his action to you and then i think so i just think so listen. So what happens to this is that let's say this call with. The chinese doesn't go well. Let's i'd say they don't come to washington in september. Let's say we have another tweet. The problem that i see is that every little tit for tat thing the risk of an accident increases fairly dramatically and i think people just forget that the market sold up twenty percent in nearly a straight line and q four of two thousand eighteen. I think there's a dip that you may not want to buy in the not too distant future especially ashley given all the uncertainty that we have right charts. What is the message of the charts in your view the messages nothing has changed over the last week week and a half i think i i think we have to look at this move as no one's getting paid bulls aren't getting paid here. Bears aren't getting paid here. We need resolution here above twenty nine fifty. Thank you wanna buy it. Twenty eight twenty twos your line in the sand. If you're tactically we won't all right so is the bond market really telling a different story with the ten year yield barely budging on news of this tariff delay. Let's bring in jim bianco president of bianco research him. Thanks for being with us. You know we've had some pretty extraordinary moves in the bond market particularly when you take a look at the moves in the ten year yield that thirty year yields as well and so today we had this risk on rally in equities. We had a bond market but didn't really move too much. What's your takeaway. I think the stock market is you guys. Were talking about a minute. Ago is all about trade and it's all all about tariffs in. It's all about saving christmas but if you look at what the bond market's been doing it hasn't been about trade. It's been about a global slowdown. This started well before august. I it has accelerated through the fed meeting. When paul did not deliver fifty and did say mid cycle adjustment. The yield curve the one that matters yes. I believe is the three month tenure has been inverted since may and the world numbers from global growth are slowing dramatically. It's the point where you've got now. Almost most half of the world is at negative interest rates x. The united states so the bond market is sending a clear message. There is a slowdown going around the rest of the world trade. It was probably just a piling on penalty moving that is not going to remove the fact that the world is slowing down. That's what bonds are reacting to and it's sending a message judge that the funds rate is too high through the inverted yield curve three-month tenure and the fed is slow and it's getting more and more worried that we're going to have a mistake okay so it's still a barometer order of of global growth concerns at this point but does the fact that the tariffs or some of the terrorists have been rolled back at least until december fifteen does that that could have different floor under the tenure yield for instance. I mean when so many people were saying tests in one thousand five. The prior low is was in the cards. <hes> does that view change josh do you think i don't think it changes a whole lot. You what you really need is look. If you really want to talk about global growth. We really got to go <hes> to <hes> what's happening in europe. Tim mentioned is e. W index loss in two thousand eleven. That was not a good time two thousand eleven. The german industrial production numbers were an absolute disaster last year the minus our last week. Excuse me minus five percent year over year. The only time that happens is when they're in recession and a lot of people are looking at europe and saying are they in a recession. It's how bad is the recession and we're looking at japan and we're saying they kick it out of their own way and they're going to raise taxes and we've already got negative g._d._p. Numbers for the third and fourth quarter being estimated to japan. This is the problem that the bond market is seeing. We look at the united states we see it. It's all okay but around us is where the problem problem is so jim. It's tim so i agree with you obviously on europe. We've talked about that. <hes> at what point do you think though because the fed pivoted the fed was offsides the feds maiden adjustment bond bond markets the ten years been cut in half <hes> at some point the leading indicators which you rightly point now were leading us eighteen months ago where we are today. <hes> just does the global dynamic of the global economic sphere. Tell us that we're supposed to be going significantly lower from here because i think we've made a massive adjustment and is scary as it is to look at global interest interest rates where they are and you can still make an argument. We're still inside a twenty. Oh eight. This is something that we're slow the healing on yeah. I think you know when you look at the bond on market you're right. It has made an adjustment around the rest of the world. It's why half the yields are negative but the u._s. has been slow. The only thing that's even come close to its all-time lows is the thirty year at just essentially touched it today for the first time so our bond market is now the problem. We face is out of line. You know one of the highest interest rates in the developed world is right now. It's the funds rate at two in tune in eighth. Only the thirty year in the in the fifteen year. Italian yields are higher. Everything else is lower. That's never been the case that the funds rates been debt way an outlier so i think with the bond market is looking at it too slow stuff yeah. You could probably probably make the case that we're probably closer to a yield low around the rest of the world but in the u._s. It looks like its early innings for rates to fall because we're so far behind everybody else jim. Thanks for joining us. We appreciate it great to see jim bianco bianca research <hes>. Let's trade this and you know today. I don't know if you guys saw this bloomberg article. Reporting uh comments and former fed chair alan greenspan saying that there is no barrier to negative rates here in the united states so even greenspan is opening the door to that possibility where the guy that might i'd have actually opened the door in the first place. It sounds that is true. You know is that the top and bond prices. We've seen over the last four hours j._p. Morgan pimco all for negative your u._s._o. Let's think about this what hasn't been as dominant as we would have expected with daniels going from two to one sixty over the last month. Well utilities have been okay not great staples. Those have been okay. Not great rates have been okay. Shouldn't those groups have been more dominant here if bond yields continuing to move lower. I've been surprised by that. Goal today and gold stocks today in particular got hit very very hard. I'm curious if we're at some type of inflection point on that one sixty one sixty five level looks like it wants to hold if you wanted to go bond proxy. Where would you go. I think rates are still a good way to do that but overall. I think it just makes sense to maintain more defensive posture right now. When i say defensive i'm not necessarily surly talking utilities and consumer staples but more so within tac tac. I'd rather be software over semi so companies like salesforce sources dobie and then healthcare healthcare is a sector that hasn't really perform well off at all and it's been in my opinion unfairly punished. I mean there's great med tech companies <music> out their like intuitive surgical agate labs that are absolutely crushing it and they're just not getting any appreciation coming up shares until right. They're getting burned on earnings. One top panel's breakdown results and tell us what it means for the rest of the cannabis space plus. The bulls taking charge in one market pro is for stocks could take even higher. He'll tell us what they are. We are live from times square in new york city much more fast money right after this at fidelity you get value won't find anywhere else decisions. They're clear our costs. They're lower than ever and account fees. There's zero so you can invest with zero trade offs open account today at fidelity dot com slash trading zero account minimums in zero counties apply to retail brokerage accounts only expenses charged by investments such as funds managed accounts. N._h._t._s._a.'s commissions interested or other expenses for transactions may still apply see fidelity. Ludi dot com slash commissions for details padilla broker services l._l._c. member n._y._s._e. Welcome back to pass when we've gun earnings alerts. Here's attila right trading after hours. After hours. Lows after reporting results scatology roy in san francisco at the details de melissa shares are down more than seven percent percents right now until race been making a lot of investments at home and abroad that's putting more pressure on its gross margins and it contributed to its bottom line miss but the company says those investments commits are resulting in big top line growth which projects will continue total kilogram sold more than tripled to more than fifty five hundred k. jeez from last ear gross margins increased to twenty seven percent quarter over quarter. The company says gross margin continues to be impacted by increased costs from ramping up cultivation facilities in canada portugal and acquiring third party supply c._e._o. Brennan kennedy was just on our air telling c._n._b._c. They don't wanna miss out on growth opportunities attorneys at home or abroad. I think if the way we look at this is it's early days. We're continuing to invest <hes> to build long term value for shareholders. If we looked at individual countries like canada for instance we could be profitable there <hes> within and within two quarters but when we look at one of the larger markets such as europe. It's still an opportune time to invest some other company. Highlights till ray has increased its cultivation space in portugal and canada and has entered the u._s. Market with a product product from manitoba harvest. Analysts reaction is already starting to come in brett cooper from consumer. Ed says we continue to believe that profitability for till ray. A and others is a ways off melissa bacteria alrighty thank you let's traders and before we get to that a quick disclosure here. Tim does have a cannabis e._t._f. C. n. b. s. us till ray is a component of that. All the components are listed on our website fast. Stop c._n._b._c. dot com so two quarters profitability in candidate tim. What do you think they choose to if brennan kennedy's donate fantastic job at till ray at position this company with some very impressive j._v. partners whether it's a._p._i. Whether it's <hes> novartis whether it's manitoba whether it's authentic brands but the reason we have a very underway position in our fund this relative to its overall market cap and the industry is is they're not doing anything a candidate not necessarily growing and in fact there are distant probably fourth or fifth player <hes> i. I think the on the marge inside the path to profitability is still unclear while these relationships for this company i think are very important and they provide optionality and i think it's a name as part of an overall portfolio <hes> you should have some exposure to but here now. It's hard to see where these guys are competing with the other big. L._p.'s and canada in the cultivation market end straight to the consumer all right. Let's get more until raise quarter and bring in rob. Worth emmer of mali's research is currently under wait till rob great to have you with us. You're actually negative the entire sectors. I understand you have been and since may so that's sort of the context of your comments here. But what did you make the tillery quarter. It looked like they spent a lot in order to expand their facilities yeah they did now. I didn't think the quarter was all that bad at first glance so <hes> there's a couple of things happening. I think the the cannabis market is transitioning to a you know hope and a dream to let's see what we can actually deliver homerun results and we've seen that in the stock price over the last few months <hes> and the results have a couple of components on the revenue side till they did pretty well. I mean you know they. They were selling more product. I i think <hes> volume was up eighty five percent quarter-on-quarter you know year year. We've got some <hes> some differences in the market but <hes> versus. That's pretty good growth. <hes> pricing was a little bit weaker bigger than we thought and that's a bit of a concern but the revenue side. They're actually doing okay. <hes> on the as you mentioned in your reporters showed you have had some investment and that's fine <hes> i. I think it's it's <hes> it's hard to really predict <hes> eventhough net income with great precision industry. That's you know highly transitional etc so margins a little bit weaker. Maybe yeah <hes> <hes> but overall the revenue wasn't so bad when you take a look at <hes> margaret's beyond canada rob which are the important markets purtill right to to really serve day. I guess so i mean there's a good job in trying to expand his you know <hes> into the u._s. <hes> in the u._s. You know sort of sorts out the various complications from what we can do with c._b._d. Marketing whether you can have it for consumption or just for topical or whatever so that's obviously the biggest most important market then until raise also <hes> planning a bunch of flags over in europe where <hes> it's lagging the u._s. and the legal environment <hes> and we're we'll see how much that pays off the near term. There's so many stocks rav. Where are you sort of say. This company is in growth mode so it's going to spend money in order to grow and it's going to spend money in order to grow revenues why why isn't that the case for for cannabis cannabis stocks or is it and it's not just it's not for till right this quarter to be fair. I think it is the case and i think that <hes> you know. I think they have grown revenues. I think that's good. I think that they've had this <hes> strategy a little bit more of trying to source in product in the wholesale market and for whatever reason the industry hasn't delivered as much as it could over the last few months and so they'd lagged a bed. I just find strategy of just you know add some tightness and so <hes> they're coming along and i think the margins you know are not yet indicative of what they'll be at maturity and so. I'm not sure that's overly focus. Focus real focus is are they getting their brand out there are they putting products on shelves and our consumers liking. It seems like the next quarter might be a little tricky or maybe this quarter after that when you laugh comparisons harrison with the legalization of marijuana for adult use in canada. Is that a concern for you or or now. You know there's a couple of things i it's a fair point and that's one reason we didn't look at that. You're every year right now because they'll use wasn't legal in candidate year ago and so you know so they obviously good growth rates right but quarter of quarterbacks on a lot more product and that's a good thing the the thing that we do have a concern with is that so canada has had the staggered approach to legalizing and not all products edibles beverages some consumer vaping is not yet legal in canada and and it will be and so i think there's a lot of hope in the market that that will be transformational right when it comes online and we're a little bit more skeptical on just how fast that will bring in new users really consume a lot <hes>. That's concerned for all right great to speak with you. Thanks for your time. Robert of malaise research aurora canvas by the way isn't overweight for rob. Where do you see these pots. What's going. I mean when you look at this. One particular every single rally for the better part of the last twelve months has been sold so if we're going to see a trend change here we have to hold recent lows the stock prints down after hours thirty nine fifty s the july thirtieth low that has to be held if this is going to start the process of putting in some type of bottom. Listen listen you know in the last five years. You know we've seen groups like this. We've seen it started three d. printing. We've seen so many many bubbles. I you know i mean to be honest with you know we we have and bitcoin bitcoin every single. One of them has popped this one. If you look at till ray it pop you know this is. A skyway was unique because of their first u._s. i._p._o. Because the liquidity atmos- it squeezed up to three hundred dollars just on that alone i mean you're right in terms of bubbalicious valuations. You can't compare tillery as a stock to the sec well. Let's let's talk about six months. I mean to be very frank. If i were to invest in the space i would invest with someone like you who spent a lotta time with these companies buying one of these companies. I just don't know how anybody could value the giving the market caps they have given the regulatory headwinds that they have which is unknowable like we're talking canada. We're talking about ken in usage in canada i know but like it may never come federal here in the u._s. And then you're going to be sticking tell raising the options market data just decline. The decays decays the case. That's what's going on at till ray right there well. Here's a i'll say this <hes> valuation at twenty two times two thousand nineteen e._v. to sales else <hes> it makes no sense and dan is right to push back and i i would just say regulatory is probably a tailwind for the sector even it's complex regulatory environment but if if anything there's a lot more doors to be opened to be closed maybe i mean and and i think what they're doing in a place like germany again. I don't think to raise the name that you go. <hes> go bonkers on. I think what you do for those. You look at those companies that have facilities where there have g._n._p. Certification and can get into places that are really growing markets and that's why you do your work for more intel race quarter head on over robert c._b._c. dot com. I'm melissa leo fast one and c._n._b._c. Here's what else is coming up on. The show tech turnaround apple soaring today. Today is the u._s. Takes a tariff time out. Is this an all clear for the tech titan but first hungry for yield we found four names to feast on and we're serving them up when fast money returns. Hey i'm john harwood host of c._n._b._c. speakeasy podcast listening to my in depth conversations with political decision-makers folks like john delaney. The first declared democratic presidential. Oh candidate for election twenty twenty along with senator sherrod brown senator elizabeth warren and stephanie sri of emily's list those interviews and more on the the speakeasy podcast subscribe today. Welcome back to fast money. It was a day for the bulls on wall street stocks doc surging after the u._s. Delayed some tariffs on china but trae tensions are far from gone in one money. Manager is four ways to protect your portfolio against further damage. Let's bring in todd wash the c._e._o. Of alpha cubed investments he's got one point four billion dollars in assets under management todd great to see you again. What general market view at this point has anything changed. You know i started in nineteen. Eighty-six and there are two phrases that really got my attention one of the s._e._c.'s launching an accounting inquiry into a firm for irregularities but the other big one is troops are massing at the border and there's a lot of issues out there notwithstanding today's wonderful relief rally. I go back and i look at the ten year or at three point two last year. Remember we were all really worried about it going to three point four three point seven flash forward one year later one point seven growth prospects are murky get past and the market is still at the exact same level that it was at one year ago today at about twenty nine hundred so what's going on. We've got a feedback loop between the fed. The real economy trade wars the white house and it's keeping in suspended animation. We think this is probably not going to be resolved anytime soon. So what alpha cubed investments we've been steering are investors in a different direction all year. You might remember on my last visit. I was talking generally about value but now we're lizard in on a certain type type of company companies that are u._s. Based large cap value based companies companies with a below market metric companies with great earnings per share cash flow ellipoid revenues per share but more importantly higher than average dividends two and a half three and a half three percent kind of thing with sustainability good payout ratios and definitely above coverage pelts okay. We have a full screen. I think all the picks that you like verizon metlife united parcel johnson and johnson and we can see the yields are are much greater than the s. and p. five hundred yield overall right now. I want to ask you some specific ones though u._p._s. U._p._s. has had difficulties and it is exposed to global slowdown. So why would you pick that u._p._s. Just came out with a pretty good earnings report a couple of weeks back <hes> it's been probing that one twenty area and with that dividend at three point two percent and i think a fifteen times multiple we we think they're going to do well in this environment. We think these types. This class of investments is going to act like an a._t._m. For investors and do paraphrase the late great ross perot it may act orw. Macy's is a giant sucking sound of money into the sector where it's extremely well-treated okay johnson and johnson's got some litigation risk involving towel just wondering how you handicap caveat <hes> definitely a headwind for that company but on the other hand this <hes> leader diversified healthcare company paying about two point nine percent dividend fifteen times multiple. This is one of the only two companies in the country still rated aaa by us and the other one being microsoft paying dividends since nineteen sixty three. It's a very high quality company and we think they're really do well all right todd great to see you. Thanks so much todd wall choice of alpha cubed investments. We should have taught socks i do i do. I like like <hes> like verizon and i like johnson and johnson. I do think that if you break down his arguments about the scariness out there the cyclicality of u._p._s. <hes> and even met life. I mean these these. Those are sectors. I don't think i want to be in but johnson johnson in terms of their pharma bucket which is a significant part along with their medical devices. They actually have growth there eight to nine percent which is actually better than their farm farm appears at john jay. I we don't mark so we like variety. We own verizon. We own johnson and johnson. We did own metlife until a couple months ago. We sold it. We move the money into progressive. If i think there's better opportunities with an auto insurance right now all the vehicles are much more safer today with adaptive cruise control autonomous driving all that stuff is going to reduce accidents but the same point in time premiums are not going to be reduced dollar for dollar u._p._s. Really stands out to me something. That's quietly getting better with no attention. This is a stock that went went from one forty to ninety. The bear markets happened here. Good earnings stock responded. We love stuff that goes up on bad news. This was quietly getting better and it speaks to an environment where the world's on fire this airfreight stock is getting better and the truckers are actually quietly getting better. Maybe the mortgage already discounted a lot of the problems that are already out there so it's todd instead speaking of ross perot and sucking verizon unchanged on the year kind of socks <hes> but a._t. And t. quietly up twenty two percent of the year trading at fifty two week highs breaking out of today's massive downtrend has been in since the highs in two thousand sixteen that one looks really could do and actually a much higher you. I like the chris rock and i love it. It's turned go to all right coming out. Terry delays any shares of apple soaring. Is this really the all clear for the tech giant later the big global risk for your money tensions flaring bearing in hong kong again today how the markets are navigating this turmoil. We will take you live to the region much more fast money right after this breath welcome to pass money. Check out shares of apple surgery nearly five percent today the best day in more than three months of tech titan getting a huge boost loose from us that the u._s. will delay some tariffs on chinese goods until mid december so how much higher can apple run in the meantime the certainly asai relief at least until december fifteen not music about in market cap terms. How much stock rallied in such a short period time it was crazy and you know you have to go back and think about august first before that tweet came out apple is trading really well is trading at two hundred twenty dollars. The company had given better than seasonal guidance for the current quarter interestingly enough today. The stock was unchanged before this announcement came out about the trade and chris. You said a note out this morning saying that july a massive bounceback in iphone shipments in china for apple and that was kind of interesting because that would support the thesis of the better better than expected guidance so this one to me. I obviously could get back up to those highs post earnings in a market that stable that doesn't have these tereshkova so i could see this thing going as high as two forty by the end of the year. There's really three main growth drivers for apple number one. Obviously you have the five g. phone which doesn't hit until twenty twenty. You've got wearables. They're doing really well with the watch the air pods but in my opinion the most important really is their shift towards services high margin recurring revenue services and they've been doing really well there as well the gum on long apple and i'm an investor in apple and you've heard me say i think the multiple should be it. Certainly a blended multiple. Has this thing significantly higher <hes> but i also think that in the short run is very little for me that says this gets away from you so at the risk of turning this into an options action show. You should be selling upside. You should be selling covered calls else here <hes> one to two months tops. I wanna mess around with the holiday season. I don't wanna mess around with anything beyond a lot of seasonal volatility name. There's no way gets away from you here in the next six just weeks and on a daily today when spiked up five percent. That's a nice time to sell some upside bowl so you just want to own the stock. I want to boost your if i get called away at two twenty twenty which is why i sold these things that that doesn't bother me that real quickly you know again. We're gonna get announcement about the new iphones when the rollout is going to be in september and then maybe the you see new iphones at the end of september timber. Maybe you see a higher end phone. At some point in november. Those tend to be kind of sell the news sorts of things especially if they rally into it so to me to your point. I think if you get back up to those post earnings is high near to twenty that could be a great opportunity to overwrite your stock by selling calls against all right well. It's not just trade news. That's boosting apple. Technicals also pointing to a possible break out and that could spell good news for some of the tech giant's most important suppliers. Let's go off the charts chris. We're gonna send you over to the plasma. You can do your thing you. I think what's so remarkable about the stock. It's august thirteenth of two thousand nine hundred ninety two nine. That's precisely where the stock traded on august thirteenth of two thousand eighteen. We are unchanged tunein today tunein precisely twelve months ago so let's take a little bit of a longer lookout get an idea of where we are and i think what's interesting about the chart here over the last couple years. We're we're at this point. Where resolution is coming. We've had these series of higher lows over the last six or seven months and we've also had these series of higher lows close over the last several months. Which way does this break. I think ultimately up to fifteen level has been a big big number for a long time i am i've actually been impressed even before today how well the stock has acted despite the headwinds that are out there. Now i wanna take a longer look at apple. This is is over the last twelve years. What's been so remarkable about these draw. Downs is symmetry two thousand seven two thousand eight from high to low oh too high about ninety weeks two thousand eleven two thousand twelve in two thousand thirteen high low high about ninety five weeks very similar in two twenty fifteen two thousand sixteen high low high ninety three weeks. We're about sixty weeks into this right now from the high last year toward the stock trades today so maybe there's more time in front of us but i do think ultimately as we learned in eleven fifteen sixteen the stock tends to resolve al higher. We think ultimately breaks now. How about the ecosystem are their names related here that we can get exposure to micron is another one in the semi space that actually ax okay despite all the headwinds we've had just recently the fifty day average break above the two hundred day so the trend environment here is starting to get a little bit better another example texas instruments t._s._n. A stock that only recently broke out of about an eighteen month base so are some of these semi's actually shirley beginning to lead what apple may do from here we love. I like how it consolidated above the fifty above the two hundred. There's been no damage done here over the last several weeks and then lastly cirrus logic cr u._s. One of the biggest providers here another name where you've seen a very meaningful turn here you had had the bear market. The stock has been bottoming over the last six or seven months again fifty up above the two hundred so the trend environment here has gotten better. I think you buy consolidations salvations here. I think ultimately a micron texas instruments is serious is sending a good message that ultimately apple will will resolve higher not lower croissants. You come back over over micron. I would be concerned that it's still swept up in hallway concerned because it's a major hallway supplier and i think again you microbes is one of these names that tends to overshoot in either direction. We certainly know what the headlines are to their core business in terms of pricing on ramp <hes> when when you think about where the street got to it in the valuation probably got to cheap if you've had a massive rally here and yes you still are stuck in in some cyclical and specific trade issues that are not going to resolve anytime soon. I don't know why you chase it so if apple's goes to to forty forty as you think do you like the suppliers i don't. I don't have limited exposure to <hes> to those chips stocks. We do own broadcom. I like broadcom because in my opinion it's a it's a more defensive semi with its building is building out some software exposure within the company and we're like invidia. Invidia gives us access to this. Hi growth in markets such as autonomous vehicles data center gaming all that stuff that we wanna play a again texas instruments not huge supplier to apple about six percent or something like that <hes> but you know that is one of the best looking charts in the whole market had actually underperformed the s._m._h. For a good part of the last year and a half one twenty was that line got rejected from numerous occasions the here's the thing about the guidance that they gave in late july. It wasn't even that good. It just wasn't as bad as was feared and that had a seven percent gap. I think holding one twenty that thing looks like a good floor for see that one more time for the viewers at home one of the best looking charts in the mark no doubt about it one of the best insurance in the market so rare because it's usually usually the worst looking in the market. That's why i think we need to take in this moment. Taken up next retail back in fashion posting one of its best just as the year the move sparking a surge of options activity is one big name to report results. Tomorrow we will break down the action hong kong protests reaching a boiling point and we'll tell tell you what it means for the market much more fast money right after this welcome back to one it has been rough year for retail but check out the r._t. That's e._t._f. Attracts space having its best day in more than two months after the u._s. Delay some tariffs on certain chinese goods but options traders are betting adding the retail rally could get cut short when one big name reports results tomorrow my cousin san francisco with the action mike what looking at we're looking at macy's so this is a name that has moved about seven and a half percent or so on average after their earnings implying a move of about nine percent right now which may seem like it's it's bigger than average but i think it's worth considering that the stock has fallen sharply and as it has done so the equity is going to become more volatile because the rest of the balance sheet hasn't been shrinking basically got a lot of debt here and i think somebody might be taking a look at that because we saw the september twenty seventh eighteen and a half sixteen put spread trade twenty three hundred fifty times a buyer higher paid seventy cents for those the buyer of that put spread is betting on a decline of at least eight percent and maybe as much as eighteen percent by september twenty seventh which is forty five days away and i think this is an important thing to pay attention to when you have stocks like this that have declined scan. You're actually adding leverage to the equity and you have to price out it into the options here. I think even though it is an above average implied move given that fact. I think the options are still cheap going into earnings right now all right mike thanks for that. Mike cohen san francisco discover more options action. Check out the full show friday five thirty p._m. Eastern time coming up protests in hong kong flaring up again today. We'll tell you how the clash could hit the open in asia. We're live live in the region straight ahead but i take the kramer cam. Jim is breaking down what to buy. Following today's big rally that is coming up on mad money at the top of the hour for live at the nasdaq market site in times square much bass money still ahead. Welcome back to mass money. We're continuing to follow a major developing story out of hong kong tensions flaring once again today as police in riot gear clash the demonstrators at hong kong's main airport and we're just getting fresh comments from the white house of the drivers for the very latest eamon melissa. We've got a new statement here from a senior administration administration official on events in hong kong officials saying in part freedoms of expression and assembly our core values that we share with the people of hong kong. These freedoms should should be protected. The united states firmly rejects the notion that we are sponsoring or inciting these demonstration so the official had also said some the comments that the officials gave us yesterday saying that the united states continues to monitor the situation in hong kong and the urging all sides to remain calm safe and peaceful quoting the president here saying the the president has said they're looking for democracy and i think most people want democracy but a new an unequivocal denial here now from the united states side that the u._s. has anything to do with these protests tests that are going on in hong kong. Can this statement though live side by side you know to president trump's comments earlier that this is really a matter for china to deal with well the present it has said that and <hes> he's also been tweeting about this today. The president suggested that u._s. intelligence had some evidence that chinese troops were massing on the border of hong kong earlier earlier today in a tweet. The white house hasn't provided any detail whatsoever to back up that tweet evan briefed us on any <hes> intelligence that the u._s. has so all we have to go on now is that tweet and the president also suggested on to a tweet earlier today that people are blaming him and the united states for events in hong kong <hes> i sort of dismissed that <hes> suggestion russian in the tweet earlier today now we have sort of a formal denial here from senior administration officials saying the united states rejects the notion that it has anything to do with this all right amen. Thank you eight. I a forest in washington. We'll the protest playing out of big way and the asian market hong kong's main stock index the hang seng hitting its lowest level since the start of the year markets in asia are getting ready to open in for the day so let's get straight to c._n._b._c. Sri raja live in singapore with the latest tree. Hi melissa yes let me just pick up on what was oh saying that there is an unprecedented level of political risk emanating from hong kong now and you saw those pictures there the streets off the financial capital resembling that of caracas and we also saw those clashes eight in the ap polls as well continuing for a second day in flights delayed at this is not a localized ariss anymore. This is now having global repercussions on sentiments in the next big risk of course is if beijing says enough is enough. These protesters have crossed a red line and the people's liberation army is deployed. We're not yet though but if that situation does happen if the chinese military eh does intervene in hong kong than you can bet they'll be widespread international condemnation and this takes this situation to entirely new dimension attention so summing up risk on for now because we are inheriting something of a turnaround tuesday on your side in your mark. It's not should offer something of a respite who else but you go to bat that. A lot of risks still remain all new global basis on a regional basis as well. We continue to be at the mercy offer for the trade related headlines. There's still a big drag from all the uncertainty trade juice uncertainty and then of course after that wall of worry you got a lot of idiosyncratic risk coming from emerging markets and europe now and then of course the localized risk in hong kong just became global quite arguably back to you now. Sri thank you sri jaeger in singapore for us <hes> tim obviously if you're invested in the e._m. Great to be worried if you're in f._x. I got to be worried on. How did this become a tradable event at this point and by the way sri sitting in singapore remember for perspective hong kong's losses singapore's gain is a regional center and i think there's there's major major fallout that would come from this but if you look at the forty percent of china over sixty percent kind of it's asia in fact the irony is of course when we hit that blow off top and john of twenty eighteen <hes> that's just when you gotta heavier weighting that was the last peak in emerging markets effectively making taking nine year lows on a on a relative basis to the s._n._p. Continue to look weaker here <hes> at least on a relative basis. I don't like in the short run. If you've got a trade war everything was ah hunky dory <hes> and you really had that santa claus e._m. Is oversold here and again in in relative terms it is but it's it's difficult to see when you look at the global growth dynamics mex and the the trade protectionism all over japan south korea in spat <hes> you see as central banks around the world scrambling growth the only good news for e._m. Is where there i used to be historically inflation issues and dollar issues. You don't see that right now. Sri may good point and that asia tomorrow may not be a good tell on the day session because it's inheriting what we did get here in the united states but let's say you wake up at seven o'clock in the morning. What's the first thing that you take a look at yeah. I think you wanna look at chinese equities. I mean obviously hong kong's important and you know back in two thousand fifteen. When we had some similar kind of volatility emanating from china the shanghai interestingly had gone from two thousand to five thousand the composite deposit now. It's not moving around the way it is. It's below three thousand that sort of thing so. I don't think it's a great tell i actually think the chinese have probably done a good job holding that much smaller equity market and relative tip to the s._p._x. Kind of stable. They're not being the one that they're seeing a lot of volatility coming from one way or another. Obviously a lotta listed stocks. Here are moving around a lot. What's on your screen at seven a._m. A._m. Yes so the first thing i would look at his alibaba. It's a company we own. We like it. It's back down to one hundred sixty four bucks but with alibaba you're getting part amazon part. Pay pal all part grub hub all with three times the total addressable market so that's what we're watching quick on yours. I think ultimately what are the related traits be careful with european luxury stocks l._v._m._h. H those have been very tied to this over the last couple years. There's probably some risk there. All right up next final trades time for the final trade ten talked about some other names like this. One eighteen fits that you'll love. That's how i own it again h._b._o. Max is different drivers here lower eight farming farming yes. This is interesting name tougher green thumb g._t. It's a multi state operator. Even without legalization they had the opportunity to quadruple revenues the news over the course of the next two years and the c._e._o. Is the great the great grandson of the guy who navigated jim beam through prohibitions. Better chris brown housing stocks at great great dior. Portland is one of our favorite just broke out great relative strength. I think you only hear anything no. I'm gonna go with her own. Stock here that i said i think it's one of the best us looking again. The big kicker okay earnings went fantastic. They were just good enough in the stock gapped up. I think he used one twentieth. Stop to them. It doesn't rusty becker tomorrow. Five more money meantime don't go anywhere mad money which kramer starts right now brought to you by fidelity where decisions are clear and costs are lower than ever learn more about our industry leading value and open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services l._l._c. member n._y._s._e.
Fast Money 04/17/19
"Brought to you by fidelity where decisions are clear and costs are lower than ever. Learn more about our industry leading value and open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading. Fidelity brokerage services LLC member NYSE SIPC. Bass money starts right now live from the NASDAQ market site. Overlooking New York City's Times Square, I'm Melissa Lee. Tonight's lineup Brian Kelly, Dan Suzuki of Richard Bernstein. Karen finer, and then guide Dommie we are awaiting the pricing of two technical and set the star trading tomorrow. We should have big news from Pinter's zoom in moments, and we'll bring you the details. Plus, it's a healthcare headache the sector turning negative for the year getting slammed today down another three percent. We will tell you. What's wrong with this group? We start off with a celebration for investors today. The NASDAQ one hundred hitting all time high for the first time since October first tech. And specifically the chips have led the way back from the December lows the tickle at some of the NASDAQ heavyweights Facebook Netflix apple Amazon still nearly ten percent or more off their record highs. So will those names catch up with the rest of the tech? What do you buy now guy? First of all, there's some people that watch they might be getting married later this year in the fall, typically falls nice time to get married. And a lot of them will think the play that song that we just played. What do you think this is just so old guy? Yes. So so awful as well that and we are family that sister sledge song. So I encourage you folks, if you're thinking about it, don't do it. One great. We start the show here. Dan. Thank you know. I know what the question is can these. Heavyweight's catch up. Listen, they've levitated done a great job. Facebook scares me here. But there are some names. I think that still make sense we had a similarly to the show about a month and a half to much go. And you asked me that question. I said there's an another radar stock in tech that people haven't looked at that was two hundred and thirty dollars right before President Trump started. These tariffs traded down to one thirty. I think it has room to the upside. And that was lamb research you wake up today. It's one ninety five they report on April twenty four th five G now is all the rage as we have talked about now for the last couple of months at thirteen times forward earnings say reasonable valuation. So if you're looking for place at not a lot of people talk about that Ciller and earnings it's is it troubling though. And I turn to you Dan that some of these big the largest cap companies in the NASDAQ one hundred aren't quite there yet. I don't remember that that's a sense. But I do think that it's it's it's actually to be expected. If you think about we talked about this last time, I was on the show tech is the most circle sector out. There is more cyclical than industrials on a lot of different metrics. So the fact that you know. Some of these stocks haven't done. Well, I think some of these stocks are actually very cyclical, and you look at you look at this quarter's earnings. You know, Tex earnings are gonna be down what ten percent, that's what's basically baked into consensus right now. I mean, people forget that these are sickle socks and the prophet cycles. Slowing right now. So I think that, you know, people need to recognize that and a lot of these stocks that you mentioned are some of the ones where they're seeing the hit apples is a great example of that. You know, what worries me more than those ones? Lagging is the fact that the semiconductor index SMH did what looks to me like a blow off top today. So if you get slowing earnings and a vertical type stock market, at least in the semi's, and they have been to leaders of the spark remember they topped out and started going lower before the October. November swoon to me. These look very very frothy way, we paid celebration at the top of the show. There's something very good. Right. Exactly. Actually. No. I don't think it's good. I think X going to catch down to stuff like apple not saying. I agree. I agree with both in that in that you talking about. Cyclicality to me semiconductor names are going to be much more cyclical than a FANG type of name. And so I agree that euphoria there. I don't really get. I don't know if the things are too cheap the ones that I own. Of course, I think are cheap, right? That that's always the way it is. But for me, alphabet, Facebook, those are present real value. And so I'm long those. I hope it's that they go up and that the the don't don't collapse I not collapsed, but don't come in a lot. That's where I think the value is I wouldn't be chasing semi theory. So then to to sort of key off with these guys were saying, do you then want to move into the more value area of the cyclical sectors at this point the Bank thing? I mean, that's the most valuable in the most cyclical sector, and obviously the banks about a nice run. I'm surprised by how well they traded. But I look at it. And maybe it makes it a little bit of sense. You look at Goldman Sachs now basically hovering around two zero eight that's basically their book value the stock when they reported a couple of days ago. So you know, banks that are trading book value. Yeah. You can see how that makes sense J P Morgan on the other hand, which is trading almost now two times price to tangible book, which is a different conversation. You have to wonder is that head of itself. So I'm not necessarily sure the Bank so raging by but to push back on tech a little bit. You know, Facebook has been impervious to every piece of bad news. It's come across the helm. And there's been a lot of it over the last couple of months, you have to wonder at a certain point, given the run is a bad news going to catch up. And I think it will the only thing saving Facebook, in my opinion is the fact that advertisers don't have any place to go in a meaningful way. If that would ever to change look out below and face, but by Pinon, that's major and Proctor and gamble CEO. Actually, I think it was a week or week and a half ago actually said that he was reexamining their re examining their adspend because of all sorts of negative press around it. I mean, we're just we're not too long away from Facebook's earnings and a lower not. And I mean to me Facebook has some idiot Saint credit issues in that they're trying to combine all these platforms and it's unclear if that's gonna work not only that they're trying to have this privacy. I and a. Again, when you're trying to do it. I don't want to call it a turnaround story. But it reminds me very much of a turnaround story. So I don't think it's going to trade as much with the market. It may be a good value. But if I look at the fangs in them to me apple is the one that actually looks the best if you're looking to buy something, and I actually think that's more defensive than anything else because of their relatively steady earning stream. So Dan is this all cue for investors? I want to be in the cyclical areas in the market, but I want to be in those that are more value oriented at this actually would kind of disagree with the whole piece. This all together. I think that you know, when the prophets I go slow, and you don't wanna own cyclicals because those are things that are going to have the worst earnings trends, and I think that no it doesn't matter if their value cyclicals or high gross Ecoles that you want to just really tone down your optimism on the whole space. So this whole the bid the recent bit in Bank stocks, for instance. Well, yeah. Bad news there. I think what's happening this year. And we're talking about this last time is that you know, everybody's getting caught out on this. What's been going on this year trade, right? You know tech is one of the best. All the schools are doing really well. Well, if you look at it, it's just a reversal of what happened the fourth quarter last year. So, you know, people are assuming that what's happening. This year is about this today's fundamentals it's actually about fourth quarter fundamentals and reversing that. So if you take that out of it, the sickles haven't done that while I mean, look at it as with with nine, you know, the end of the third quarter as the start date, you know, the sickles haven't done that. Well, on that from that respect, I think that folks on the defensive stuff that's going to be the stuff that looking for their at the rest of the year is going to be the stuff that matters more. So I think that the banks are a proxy for the US economy, or well, depending on the Bank, but for the US economy, let's just say, and I think that so even with rates having come in. They've still shown that they can be profitable. And I think they've also shown that they don't deserve that low of a p e that the valuation is just too cheap. Even if you think that the margins are going to be pressed so that that's a positive to me looking at something like a as an industrial or cyclical like you are I which I own figuring out tonight. Really? They're just reaffirming. The stock's up a lot people were very near. This that the economy is slowly. And it looks like they have a call tomorrow at eleven, but it looks like what they're telling you is they're not seeing that they're seeing strength out there. And so I think that as long as we continue to see good economic tater. Good earnings. I think the market does have more to run. However, I'm a little nervous with the vixen here. I gotta buy more and still the point is we did we had good economic news. That's what concerned me today is we are good economic news from China. If you had told me that we were going to have a trade deal signed by the end of may. I would've told you the Dow would have been up three hundred points today. It didn't even move the Dow whatsoever. So at these levels that doesn't seem like the drivers that have driven this up, you know, low interest rates by the fed the potential for a trade deal and improving Konami all of those have been priced in we need this new piece of information that's going to move the market. And my concern is with this rally that new piece of information moves the market lower. And look at how the victory traded today. It closed near the highs of the day. I mean, the question is with all this sad could China trade deal actually, be a sell the news? Event with where we are in the cycle with where valuations are we show with a lack of reaction in the markets to any trade headlines, or I mean, it could just be that the markets are in your to all these various headlines that have come out every day. There's a headline is clearly diminishing marginal returns when Larry cudlow goes out there and talks about we're closer trade deal. Steve Mnuchin says the President Trump tweets about it a few months ago, it's worth a few hundred points. Now, it doesn't seem really move the neither all to be case point. So I would agree with that said where one and a half percent or so from an all time high and the S and P and the market continues to levitated here in my opinion, mostly because our central Bank Federal Reserve, totally about-face two and a half three months ago. I mean that to me it's been a big driver and the hope of China trade deal. But again, I'll say this, you know, the Chinese market is come raging back and the data has come raging bands. So why would the again my opinion? Why would the Chinese being suck? Deal with United States right now. Because if they don't they're market will go down. I also think you got a this is a longer term thing. Right. They can't try to time the market when you do it you have since their banks lending the equivalent of the GDP of Switzerland your date. I mean things like that. Hell also, remember we've got another five hundred hands with Europe, potentially. I mean, and I don't think it's going to stop there. I mean, you've got a president who fights with dead guys. They're gonna certainly fight with everybody else in the world. So I think that's a big risk to the market. I think the the one thing you want to you know, that you're talking about is like she by the S and P here. Should you buy goes here with China data coming out? Well, you just go by China, right? Because if the data's and prevent China the data's getting worse. I would argue in the US then the simple answer is don't talk about buying US goes on the China's or just go by China to think there's still a lot more room to run one separate move. Would you buy Europe? No, I mean, so you can buy the second of Dir replay. But why by the second replay when you can buy the first replay plenty of upset that I mean, I think. Thing is Europe's already run a bit too. Right. So to me, China has probably the more upside if you wanna look like copper had a great breakout that tends to be kind of China proxy in a sense. You could probably look at like, freeport, MAC f FC x that might be some way to play it, but to but to dance point why not just by the why not by the Shanghai to fantastic day. And it's got a ton of room to run. All right. Well, the healthcare sector has been feeling some hurt lately. It's our chart of the day. In fact, check out the group turning negative for the year. It's the worst performing sector and the S and P five hundred the 'cause the health insurers like UNH Cigna anthem and Humana old down again today weighing on the sector, one of our traders things healthcare might be the cure. And you mentioned you alluded to this defensive when the prophet psycho slowing you got to buy more defensive sectors. I mean, you talked about industrials you talk about tech. You talk about financials tech and financial two of the three worst performing sector says the prophet cycle slowing. So I think healthcare makes a lotta sense. You know, we look at prophets the quiz sentiment profits and revenue top Antop by grow for the healthcare sector is probably the best or at one of the best Nessim p. They're seeing they're the only sector analysts are actually taking up top line and bottom line estimates. And they're cheap on basically every metric you have. So I think, you know, there's a huge demographic story in there and to get that demographic story at a discount history. I think is a great opportunity because it's trading off of headlines. This is not new news. I mean, this is probably going to be part of the sector story for a long time. Is that the political it's going to be a very political hot button issue, especially as we get closer to the election. But this is not dissimilar to the fact went, you know, a couple of years ago Hillary tweeted about drug pricing, she's going to crack down on that weight on the sector in the near term. But over the long term if profits cycles are slowing and the profits are going to hold a, well, that's what we're focused, and I think that that will do well for the sector bought anthem. I I had them going into this. And and then I bought some two days ago. I tried to buy some today tried to actually buy some options today, they were kind of thin and wide. So unfortunately, I didn't get anything done. You know, I think that this is really really overdone obviously two days ago. It was I bought it a much worse price. It is today. But everything you're saying, I mean, these are great companies are profitable companies. They're in a a sort of vortex of negative news. And so I like it when things trade down by integer, or tens of invite ten dollars at a time. Now, I've had enough liking it. I I'd prefer to sort of bought them out right now. But I think it's very attractive here. I think you're going to see this die down. We've seen this threat. Several times four of the last ever since auto care, actually. And so I think we'll see die down. There's value here. Tremendous value. These are great companies be concerned about win are the election sky question. Or member twenty twenty right? Keeping the khanate do that, ding, ding. Got it. Why do I ask why? Because you wanted to make me look foolish on my new that you say because the headline risks to this group will ask through at least I agree with that disagree with that. I wanted to add one other point anthem, you know, I just looked they have five billion dollars left in their buyback. I did call them today. I didn't hear back from that one is maybe they'll increase their by back. I don't think they'll be out there before they report. But it wouldn't be surprising for me to see some of these HMO's out there these managed care companies do big by X with this doctor, but you are correct. I mean, you have obviously until November twenty twenty where this will be in the crosshairs to certain degree. I think it'll Wayne in terms of the rhetoric, but you know, you look at UNH, for example, look at the corner yesterday was outstanding quarter. They didn't they actually raise guidance. You have a stock that now is trading at thirteen times forward earnings the last five-year average but seventeen it's traded as much as twenty one times forward earnings. That's the good news bad news is ninety six percent of the analysts out. There have a buy on it. I don't think they're any cells on it. Which is a bit of a problem because now you might have some analysts reversing. Numbers that being said, I mean, you're talking about Trump valuations at a company that still doing extraordinarily well where people now just shooting first asking questions later. So I think you have to be on board. I don't think any of this stuff is going to go through the rhetoric is going to die down in a couple of months from now, we'll say UNH it wherever it is now to twenty or something was a gift and look at the broad sector ETF XL V, right? Look at that traded today, huge volume on this kind of type of thing. And in my experience when I want when I feel like I want to vomit on my shoes. Those are the best. So that's what today healthcare look like. All right. We've got some breaking news in a cannabis face for read week. Ironically, canopy growth is near a deal to buy acreage holdings. This would add to the flurry of deals we've seen in the space. According to sources close to the company the two have been in talks for the past two weeks. They're scheduled to have a call tonight to finalize the deal impossibly announced this deal as early as tomorrow morning, but this deal came together very quickly. Canopy growth was actually looking at other multi state operators. He owned the United States. And if you think more broadly about this deal, and what this means for the industry. Remember, the constellation brands is a major shareholder and stakeholder in canopy growth, this effectively allows constellation brands to have a piece of the US cannabis market. So it is believed by industry insiders that this could be the template for a lot more of these types of deals to happen for US major companies to have a piece of the US cannabis market. So that is where watching tonight we'll have more details to some of the other targets that had been approached by canopy later on in clue. And also, we've got Ben Kogler the CO green. Thumb industries later this hour. We'll get his take on what this could mean. But this could be a major deal again, canopy growth buying acreage holdings. It not only is this could be a big deal. But as you mentioned, the template for other ways to get into this many companies have been trying to figure out what is kind of the most. The most the best legal way to kind of get into this without running into any issues. This could be the way that they do it. It could pump up valuations, but it could be good for a trade here in this entire space because the whole space will likely trade higher as the market tries to reassess what their value what their takeover values. Okay. We'll continue following this. Meantime, we've got some breaking news zoom pricing. It's IPO moments ago. Let's get the Leslie picker at headquarters for the pricing. Let's say, Melissa. This is a source familiar with the pricing discussions. I'm told that zoom has priced its IPO at thirty six dollars. A share that implies an offering size of about seven hundred and fifty one million dollars evaluation of nine point two billion dollars on the market cap. Now, this is higher than range that they boosted earlier this week pricing a dollar above the range. Now, I'm told that this I could have priced even higher than that based on the demand that came in the door, but the company wanted to remain conservative to ensure a decent debut tomorrow guys. All right, Leslie, thank you, Leslie, pick her back at headquarters. So this was expected for this company software company at price above the range. Anybody following this? Privately the had the same at two billion dollars. What would you say this now close to nine billion? Think about it. I mean, that's pretty remarkable. I mean, so you're talking about deals that are going, really? Well, I mean that might be one of them. I think Pinterest which as you know, I have a page and we played faded about. What would what do we play the other day? Trade or free actually carry makes a good point. It's not a value at all. No. It's not. Twenty five million sixty percent revenue growth have a billion users in a couple of years. And they went slow and steady petrous. I know because I've met a page for at least the last six. Means you shouldn't buy it's terrible investments that the thing had topped or I mean, I- pincher should really contact you to have you take their page down. Oh. After. The one thing about the zoom pricing though. I think it probably a races the negative the negative tone from the lift pricing, right and went above range here people were concerned that maybe these unicorns wouldn't be able to come out and perform we'll see how trades obviously. But I think this is just generally a positive sign for the IPO market. I think the big difference it makes money, right? So that that's apparently now invoke allow you didn't need to do that. So I don't know that that makes a big difference. But I think it'd be very interesting to see how zoom trades tomorrow versus pinches. I mean, that's a I knew it's a lot of a lot of growth, but still it's a lot of losses to all right? Coming up zoom as we mentioned pricing moments ago, we're still awaiting Pinterest, and the CEO casper is here as a mattress delivery giant is gearing up for eighth. I PL plus Las Vegas. Sands is jumping after the company reporting earnings moments. We'll tell you what Wall Street is saying about the quarter and later there is one Dow dot city near all time highs gearing up for tomorrow traders are betting it is about to crash. We'll tell you the name. We're live in Times Square New York City much more fast money right after them. Is your fixed income truly fixed income? Does it provide diversification income and risk management for your clients at I'm f s we help advisors deliver these essentials. We call it essential fixed income, find out more at MFS dot com slash fixed income. Welcome back to fast one either is a food fight breaking out on Wall Street Morgan Stanley making a pair big hall. So they upgrading Domino's pizza while downgrading reportedly after the stocks sixty percent sizzle in two thousand nineteen and a shake up for shake shack. Any downgrade from Longbow after shares soared pass it's twelve month price target and check out the golden arches up a fresh all-time high this week as that sought continues to grind higher. So if you wanna dig into fast food, where do you go and ironically, I asked Karen, this doesn't, but but if I did I probably go to McDonalds, I mean, it's it's not expensive relative some of the other names that obviously they've been executing. Really? Well, I mean, Chipotle lake kudos to them. They done a fantastic job. But I feel like they are on. I mean, they are on the high wire now any tiny miss and the expectations are very high could really send the stock lower. Even though they've really executed also done a fantastic job. I would just rather be in McDonalds if you like the risk reward is. More attractive. Well, kudos to piper Jaffray, Nicole. Regan said she's been the accent CMG for last couple of hundred dollars. Good for her. I mean, I think valuation is ridiculous and CMG. But I've thought that now for the last one hundred fifty dollars so our Wenjie wrong. But even McDonalds now is getting a little rich report on April thirtieth close to twenty two times forward earnings, which historically it's sort of the the loftier frothy or end for them. So they better crush on April thirtieth. But to your point earlier, it continues to be slow instead it to the upside. So maybe the trade McDonalds a stay with it up until earnings pull the Ripcord before they report. But also remember McDonald's is rolling out there tech platform. Right. I mean, if you look at what happened Domino's pizza was the first person to do it, then multiple different restaurant chains started to integrate tech. And that's what Madonna McDonald's is doing just now. And if there's, you know, the the other companies are a guide one might think that they're their sales in earnings are going to increase quite a bit because of this. So I would stick with the McDonald's, I think things are slowing is a dollar menu defensive. Yeah. We'd probably within the discretion. Space and within restaurants. Definitely McDonald's would operate more. Like a Staples company. I would just be a little bit. I I'd be cautious overall on those types of names because their cyclical, right? So I think that you know, the economy's doing worse you wanna avoid those restaurants. Typically, you know, the big debate right now is is the economy slowing arch is are people going to start losing their jobs. You've seen some bouncing around jobless claims if that happens, and I think you want to be way more cautious on those types of name your point on technology. I mean, they're McDonald's isn't going to be the first, you know, restaurant to roll out technology. There's a lot of other restaurants who remain nameless. But they they have terrible terrible apps that I won't use. So. I I think Starbucks is a good one. I think McDonald's has I think that but you don't go to. There is amazing. For more on the big analysts calls of the day in which sock tied. The biggest moves go to CNBC dot com. So at the IPO boom is in full gear as zoom just price above its range moments ago, and we await Pinterest. We'll talk to the CEO of casper as the master struck. Delivery giant could be gearing up for its IPO last them fast money right after this. What is when interest rates rose your portfolio rose to the occasion, active income investing from Franklin Templeton reach for better. All investments involve risks Franklin Templeton distributors, inC. Welcome back to pass money. IPO madness is in full swing to tech unicorns pricing tonight zoom coming out above the range. We're still awaiting Pinterest, Leslie, picker joins us now with the latest, Leslie, hey, Melissa zoomed. Just priced. It's IPO at thirty six dollars per share. According to a person familiar with the discussions that values the video conferencing provider above nine billion dollars. The company had raised the range at initially marketed to investors on strong demand and the thirty six dollars per share was above that boosted range. Now Pinterest is set to finalize its own IPO price during a meeting that begins in about a half an hour or so I'm told that one was also in demand from investors and aims to price above the range. It had been marketing as well now combined those two companies could unleash more than two billion dollars worth of stock into the marketplace. And they could represent a nice reset for the tech IPO market is lift continues to trade below issue price, although performed quite well today, but these two and. Every IPO comes with imbedded risks, of course, especially for retail investors, who tend to get a much smaller proportion of the allocation, even though they seek allocation and brand names like Pinterest. Now, the trading tomorrow should also provide a sense of how investors feel about profit Pinterest posted losses last year. Although they were narrowing while zoom was profitable. Both companies are showing top line growth more than doubling year-over-year. Now zoom will be listed on the NASDAQ under the symbols e n Pinterest will be listed on the NYSE under the symbol P I N S, Melissa. All right. Leslie, thank you. Lizzie picker in the newsroom Brian Kelly for the markets overall. Will this help with sentiment? I think I think it does help a bit. We'll have to see I think it will be interesting here. The fact that the zoo trae the Bob bug is very good. We'll have to see how they both trae. Because to Karen's point we'll get what the market feels like about whether you want to have real earnings or whether you wanna have kind of growth in that network affect and so far lift. Said maybe that's not the best thing. We'll see what happens when Pinchas starts draining. Right. Well, the next tech unicorn could be just around the corner. Casper is a mattress delivery firm that is now valued at more than a billion dollars in. It's been reported that the company has recently hired underwriters for its very own IPO. So win will jump aboard the IPO mania we are joined now by Philip Krim, the co founder and CEO of casper. Philip great to have you with us. Thank you. So when are you going public because apparently hired the underwriters no comment on casper IPO, but it certainly great to see the demand for companies like zoom like Pinterest. We certainly think the IPO market is open and robust, and it's great to see some so much excitement. There are a handful of other online direct to consumer mattress company. So how do you differentiate amongst them? What if they all decide to say, you know, what we're all going public here. We actually think for stands alone. We really consider ourselves asleep company. Everything we do is about helping our customers sleep better. We think into end about sleep. It's about getting a great mattress. But it's about everything that could help you sleep in. January we launched technology product a lighting product that actually helps you wake up better fall asleep better. And we're trying to take products to market that are into end about sleep solutions. So we want to be the world's first global sleep rant. And we think we're well on our way to doing that. So not that you look at companies that are publicly traded. But if you did which ones would you say similar to you not necessarily being a mattress company, but the idea of what you're trying to create we actually think were really one of the first of our kind, meaning we were digitally native business, we launched online with casper dot com, but we're actually now scaling our business offline as well, we've opened up Twenty-three retail stores. We have great partners with folks like target, and we believe that we will have a business where no matter how consumers want to shop for our products. We have great products and great experiences, and we actually think there's really not a public company comp that's done that journey. So it'd be k- announced a new mattress, which has the mattress as the box springs in it the metal when you ship. Those is that change your margins on those. Mattress versus what you've been doing in the past. So yesterday, we launched our hybrid line, which is actually the combination of innerspring, technology and foam technology, and we launched two different models around that for us. We're actually still able to compress those mattresses ship them anywhere in the country. And they're really phenomenal products that were in development for over a year in our casper labs program, which is based in San Francisco and from a cost structure it works. Just the same way as our foam mattresses, you can compress it you could ship it anywhere. It's super fun to open, and they sleep really really great. Can we talk about the upsell? Then obviously, it's a technology company. I get it. But somebody buys a mattress are they buying those lighting projects are they buying the pillow. So they buying the sheets. Hello. Hello. Hello. I have trouble saying like pillow is what I say. Pillow. Anyway, what's got my question? Hopefully, he remembered. Pills. We make great sheets make great lighting products. And we are seeing higher and higher. Attachment rates as we launch new products, and we're seeing repeat revenue increase dramatically as we launched new products. We're only a five year old company actually this month, we launched April of two thousand fourteen and as we get our customers to be a little bit more mature, we're seeing them come back time and time again to buy mattresses, but to buy our full suite of products, and that's really exciting for us. I am old fashioned when it comes to buying something like a mattress, and I'll I'll buy everything else online, including food and shampoo, but not a mattress. So if I order it, and I don't want it. That's a pain in the you know, what to return to send back. We actually changed the way that you would return it. So the industry traditionally, yes, it's a huge pain. But with us, you call us up, and we'll come pick up the mattress, you don't even have to pack. It back up. Nothing. We'll come pick it up. We donate it locally. And we appreciate that. You gave us a shot. We also are changing the way that people shop for the products. We have our casper dot com website where you can learn all about these great prod. But we have twenty three stores that we've opened we're opening up over a dozen this quarter to this week. In fact, and those stores are great compliment to the online experience. No matter how you wanna shop for our products. We want to solve embedded costs and Cleo. Yes. No pun intended are gonna making money on every mattress you sell. So we don't break out profitability overall. But casper has a great product. We have a great business model, and we're seeing that by taking it to market both online and offline that it's actually growing our online business in a very efficient way. So we think this this go to market strategy is working. Well, we're in the early days of scaling it. But we believe we can keep building this out for years to come up transfer. Joining us appreciate the CEO of casper, whichever by mattress online. Absolutely. Why not it's comes right to your door. You unfold. The thing gets out there. It's better than an air mattress. Of course. I would do that. To what you sleep on. Or futons have unicorns. Why in the world why in the world is guide on me wearing a unicorn onesie unicorn ones eight look at that. We'll tell you what that's all about later on this show and trust the you will not want to miss that. Plus check tech shares a canopy growth stock story hours route we've reported just moments ago, the canopy is near a deal to buy acreage holdings. We'll tell you what that could mean for the rest of the candidates face much pass money right after this. Welcome back to pass when he'd be gone earnings alert on Las Vegas sands. Shares of the company getting a boost after reporting earnings. Let's get to Contessa brewer back at headquarters with more on this Contessa. Hi there, Melissa. Yeah. Strong quarter for Las Vegas sands across the board. The company gets most of its revenue stream from China. This earnings report is the poster child for the engine that is fueling prophets in Macau. It's not the so-called Wales. Driving the prophets. It's the premium mass and mass gambling segments. This is a challenging quarter in Mekelle the com- spring two thousand eighteen were strong, this smoking ban, obviously began this quarter, China macro concerns out there and VIP clearly is softening and yet against this backdrop, we'd delivered our best cornerstones of two thousand fourteen. In fact, set a record in mass table spend their thirteen percent over last year. The company is investing three point three billion dollars expanding marina bay sands Singapore. The company says it's running ninety eight percent occupancy there. This expansion will offer thousands of new suites high in entertainment top tier retail, and it's all aimed at attracting affluent tourists who make up premium mass, Dan Wasi Uhlich MorningStar says VIP is a concentrated market that often depends on a few larger players so quarter to quarter results can be lumpy. In fact, LVS president rob gold Saint called the VIP segment volatile. He said it does not present the best growth op? -tunities the company says it's investing heavily in Las Vegas as well group business. There is strong. It's launching the sphere. That's kind of the sports arena in partnership with MSG and one final note. Melissa Sheldon Adelson was not on this call. It's the second earnings call in a road that he's missed. He's being treated for non Hodgkin's lymphoma. And a company spokesman told me this week the treatment makes him tired. But added that he is still involved in board and company decisions. Okay. Contest. The thank you contest super Rebecca headquarters. So if you look at this channel data, and you think it is turning to the upside is. We talked about this. When win was one oh five or so we started talking about this. The fact that the Chinese were throwing the kitchen sink at their economy. They were gonna probably successful in getting their asset prices backup. That's come to fruition. Now. You say right wind sat a pretty decent move, Las Vegas. Sanchez. A good move is a room to the upside. And I would submit yes now LVS at nineteen times a little more expensive than win. Good quarter. This was an eighty dollars stock a few months ago. I think that's where it's going back to win has some domestic exposure to. So you might offset any problems you might have in China. Also, if you wanna just go, basically purely US MGM is probably the way the play that that has had a pretty nice run. Probably it hasn't run as much as Las Vegas. Sands has want to go that way as well. But I think both space looked sets up. Well, here does this fall into the category of if you wanna play China play China. Yeah. Absolutely. I think you can predict exactly what I'm gonna say. So. Yeah. Yeah. Casinos casino. Spending is notoriously discretionary, it doesn't get really much more discretionary than gambling. But I do like the the China aspect of it. But again, if I want to invest in China gross threat, rather just go by China coming at checkout. Shares of canopy growth near the highs of the session. The stock is jumping as we reported moments ago that it is a near a deal to buy acreage holdings as soon as tomorrow will bring you the details right after this break, and it is the one Dow stock trading near all time highs traders are betting could plunge tomorrow. We'll give you the name and tell you what has them so Barish. Welcome back to fast money moments ago. We reported that canopy growth is near a deal to buy acreage holdings in the stocks. You see they're jumping across the board in the after hours session. This adds to the flurry of deals we've already seen in the space. And of course, it is we'd week on fast money, and we're going to keep the good times rolling. So to speak with our next guest is not only an heir to the Jim beam bourbon fortune, but also the founder and CEO of a booming cannabis company fen cobbler of green thumb industries joins us. Now. Ben great to have you with us. I what are your thoughts on this deal? I mean, this is a great day. I would think for the multi state operators because the argument had always been, but they are trading at a discount to their Canadian cousins. Because here it's not federally legal. And so that limits their options. This only reinforces what we've been talking about for so long that the opportunity and cannabis is here in the US. And this is where the market is. This is fifty to eighty billion dollar industry where total market capitalisation is still under fifteen billion. So it's a really exciting time. And you can see that the US is where the operators want to be and it's not only Canadian cannabis operators, but it's food and beverage alcohol tobacco CPG businesses. That are studying the space, basically, they will find a way to get around the restrictions on their business in investing in a federally illegal business is what you're thinking. Everybody is studying in order to have success, you have to have access the capital, it's about the cost of capital. And so we've built a business in the US and limited licensed markets across the country where everybody else has been restricted from accessing. And so the tide has changing and the things are moving. And it's quite an exciting time. You take a look at this deal in particular though in the space, and what it means for you. And you see constellation have. A stake in canopy, canopy buying a multi state operator. And do you think now that your options in terms of who you might combine with down the road? Either beat sooner rather or later has actually widened. We have to see what the details of this deal aren't exactly how it structured, and what it means for shareholders what it means for the business. The way we look at things that GTI's through our lens, and what's best for our shareholders. And how we create value. So I'll be really interested to study the details of this. Have you been approached by canopy, we are talking to lots of people in all kinds of sectors the phone rings a lot. It's an exciting time in US cannabis because this is where the opportunity is. Okay. So in in terms of where you think it's most promising I mean, a lot of states are opening up their thirty three states currently with some sort of legal marijuana program. Whether it be recreational or medical how do you look at licenses because for instance, just because New York might legalize recreational might not be a market that could be profitable for you. Yeah. We spend a lot of time studying built a business five years ago. Operating in limited license market starting in Illinois, Nevada, Massachusetts, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Connecticut, all of which are studying in figuring out how to legalize tax and regulate fun. Mentally in the US cannabis stands in the cross section of the opioid epidemic. That is killing people cannabis offers relief for that and US states that are bankrupt and need revenue and cannabis is an opportunity for monstrous tax revenue cases, really being born out in that California. For instance, last year the amount of state tax revenue day brought in from cannabis was about a third of what had been projected. And that there's actually so much competition from the from the black market, which obviously doesn't have to pay overhead. They don't pay taxes or anything like that that it's difficult for these businesses to thrive into actually generate that tax revenue that states wanted to have. So California's an anomaly the oldest and biggest market, but if you look at Nevada with over one hundred million Colorado with over one hundred million and you're about to see what's going to happen in Massachusetts says a use tax and regulate takes over the dollars are very real. We're able to build schools and help communities how important is capital at this point capitals. Very difficult to come by for this industry at this point. How important is capital? In terms of being able to buy the licenses in the states that open up part of our edges able to win a licensing in a competitive application process. For example, New Jersey had one hundred and Forty-six applicants last year. We finished second. So we're able to win a license which is most accretive shareholders. That's everything we do. But we're studying the market for licenses and we've been very active in the environment. And it's an exciting opportunity because we can get real synergies through acquisitions, why do you think happens tomorrow with your stock? And I'm I'm asking this, and sort of a broader sense in that this deal will theoretically highlight the value or the discount that multi state operators were trading at versus Canadian company. We went public a year ago on that discount knowing the opportunity is here. I think tomorrow is another step along the way of the US investors starting to understand that the opportunity is in US MS os that are listed in Canada that this is where the opportunity is. And so I think he continued interest in the space is your phone ringing as we. All right, then thanks a lot for joining us. Ben cobbler of GTI green. Thumb industries. What's interesting quickly constellation brands? I mean, these get the stock that really troughed late last year earlier this year it's been off to the racist since I'm not suggesting it Serb investment in the industry. But it's got something to do with a clearly and thebenz point. I mean, there are so many industries it'd be disrupted. We talked about cosmetic spirits beer, the whole thing. It's not going away anytime soon. Yeah. And if you just look at the sector in general, I think you get the valuations much higher because of this could spark a really big rally. All right, by the way, we'll have much more on the big canopy deal tomorrow. I'll be speaking with the CEO of canopy growth, Bruce Linton and the sea of acreage holdings. Kevin Murphy that's tomorrow squawk box. Six fifty AM. We'll have the details of the deal then coming up this. Dow stock is trading near all time high. But traders say this doubt stud turned into a dud tomorrow. What we did there. All right. We're live. Nasdaq market finding time spare much fast money still ahead. Welcome back to C, suite shakeup at Jp. Morgan Marianne lake will step down from her role is CFO and move on to become the sea of consumer lending. Of course, there's been a lot of speculation that she could be the successor to Jamie diamond. So how do you read these move? I read this is actually this puts her in potentially the pope -sition for that. I think that she's the CFO, but people are have operating experience, and this this I think would really give her that it also certainly makes one wonder with Wells Fargo looking for a CEO. Did they come knock on her door that wouldn't be shocking to anyone and J P Morgan thinks? All right. We got our solidify our, you know, our succession plan, even though I don't know. How Jamie will be there? I think he's fantastic, of course. But some point Jamie will leave and then it also makes you wonder. All right. What about Gordon Smith, very talented? He is tenure. She's I think late forties late fifties. And jamie. I think is early sixties. So I it wouldn't be shocking to see her being set up. To be the next CEO? Yeah. I mean that was I always thought that that always I've thought for a while it would be and you wonder if Tim Sloan didn't step down if all of this would have been in the works. Yeah. Anyway, I don't know. All right. All right. Let's stick with financials. American Express shares up nearly twenty percent and outperforming the rest of the financials this year. But one trader says the rally could come to an end when the company reports earnings tomorrow, Mike goes and San Francisco, but the options action, he Mike. There. Yeah. So the Optus markets implying about a three percent move for American Express. That's about in line with what it is averaged over the past eight quarters, and when I was looking at the options activity at around two thirty an hour and a half before the market closed is already traded about two and a half times, the average daily volume that bumped up to over four times the average daily volume by the time, the market closed, therefore trading quite a lot as the closing bell approached and most of that activity was concentrated in the one eleven and one seven puts that expire tomorrow in the reason for that was that it was actually purchases of the one eleven one seven put spread included a block of a thousand of those at traded for dollar thirteen. So that somebody who's representing a bed of about one percent of the current stock price that the stock is gonna fall possibly as low as one oh seven which would be a decline of a little over four percent after they report tomorrow. All right. Thanks to that, Mike. We are off this Friday, by the way, but options action is back next Friday five thirty PM eastern time up. Next wonder why guide army has been? Wearing this unicorn onc- not just what he wears around the house. We're gonna tell you why right after this. Welcome back to pass on. And we've got some breaking snooze for. Earlier we spoke to see of Castro about its plans to go public. Our own guy did some investigative and undercover work to test out the latest casper mattress. Now, we've been talking about IPO's for the last month that seem and the buzzword is been unicorns. But as it turns out some unicorns come in a box. We're gonna find out if the casper mattress is what dreams are made of or if it's a nightmare in the making. Let's go. So that was incredibly easy delivery setup. All that slept. Is it gets the bed made put my pajamas don't judge, but I'm comfortable. Now. It's time the test this out, let's get some rest. Lights out. You've been kicked out of the room. Right. Right. Relegate it to the my doors tax, though, wasn't it. I mean, isn't that amazing? Vice ridiculous things I've done over the years. That's the most ridiculous by far. But I have my this is when when it's too light out when you get this in. You should go public. The rest of the show. Final trade time. Brian Kelly for me to be defensive in this Dan Suzuki healthcare prophets are slowing its good time known it's cheap. And it's one of the best long-term performing sector is out there. Karen feinerman would he said with a little boy specificity for me? I like I did like it higher anthem calls unicorn guy. Earning I gotta thank the p. I mean. Act staff free Kelly came to the house he brought donuts and bagels the whole thing. A lot of fun win resort smells. Yes. What more? And William happy birthday. Now, big twin happy birthday that doesn't rusty. Becker smart five mad money starts right now. What is there's a smarter way to ride out. Volatility. Smart beta strategies from Franklin Templeton reach for better. All investments involve risks Franklin Templeton distributors, inC.