19 Burst results for "Rogoff"
"rogoff" Discussed on WBEZ Chicago
"It's very hard to say what's going to be at the other end of this. I think it's going to change the way we work. It's going to change relationships in the global economy. It's very hard to know where that's going. Ah, lot of people say when I express The view that we're gonna see some dick globalization say no, It's never gonna happen. I'm not so sure. I mean it. I don't know what to say about where we're going on this. If we did break off from China, it would lead to a sharp fall in standard of living. On the other hand, if you're playing the long game, you're trying to think 40 years ahead and you haven't figured out a way to coexist with them economically. Then something has to be done. But I mean, I think at the end of the day, China's Part of the world if we don't solve their pollution problems if we don't you know, deal with them in a way that mutually satisfactory on geopolitics. It's not gonna work, so we have to work with China. We don't want to have the kind of relationship with China we had with Russia. China is a much more formidable foe. The new notion that the government is good. Rather than bad in terms of being the key driver of the economy is that now where America is Well, we're in a catastrophe like a war. And so you don't really think of the private sector is dealing with it. But let's not forget to these vaccines which have gotten us out of the pandemic. They weren't even big Pharma. They were small, entrepreneurial firms that Have these ideas. We'd be waiting years longer. We didn't have them. So it's not so simple. The government contributed to that in terms of basic research, But we're in a pandemic at the end of it. I think if we keep pretending the government can do everything will be in trouble. But again, I mean, I think we needed to deal with inequality. We need to raise taxes. We need to spread the wealth around in a way that globalization has fallen short. Ken Rogoff. We have to end their I thank you very much indeed for joining me on hard talk.
"rogoff" Discussed on KIRO Radio 97.3 FM
"Copy breakfast. And your news stream. Dave Ross at home on your smart speakers. This is Seattle's morning news with Dave Ross. Oh show points revenues in the tank because of the sales tax writer ships in the tank. But as far as I can tell, construction is full speed ahead for sound transit. So Chris is going to give us a status update here. Matter of fact, One of my last choke points of 2020 was to talk about the good things that sound transit is done because the construct Instrument chugging along and they've been doing really well. But the good news I'm going to start with now is the light rail trains and actually start making the trip between the U District in North Gate. You might have noticed that the trains We're on the elevated tracks this week approaching North Gate. These were the first test trains that are going to run. The track says Sound Transit prepares to open the line to passenger service in September. Sound Transit says This expansion is opening on time and on budget. But the budget house where is not in good shape. We've been talking about it for years that the linguine extension was running about a half billion dollars over budget. That's because of you know, cost of buying houses and along the alignment, so their estimates really kind of got blown away their sound transit, though in the last four years, he's kind of eating those concert costs and absorb them to get them back. Into the budget area. You do that by not as many bells and whistles, you know what the stations and whatnot but the same thing's happening for the extension is to West Seattle ballot in the coat to coma. Skywalk rocketing property values are being blamed for a nearly $6 billion increase. And the cost for those expansions that were promised under S T three. The expansions the West Seattle and Ballard had ballooned by $5 billion to come Expansion $1 billion over budget there and again the reason it's really hard to buy property in those areas, especially where the property values are going through the roof like they are in our housing market. So sound Transit's board's gonna have some very tough decisions coming up over the next couple of months over. You know where they're going toe build multiple tunnels to make this happen. Maybe one. Maybe two. Are the project's going to run at grade where the station's gonna be placed. How many stations? Are they going to have so an independent consultants going to go over the books starting next month and report back to the board in April, so hopefully we'll have a little bit more clarity there. But the overarching concern in all of sound transit news is When will people return to transit out of this pandemic? If they ever do in the numbers forecasted, and they really don't know that I mean sound transits. Ridership still off more than 80% as of the end of November. CEO Peter Rogoff told a group earlier this month that writers need to realize the trains and Busses are safe. As long as everybody is following the rules. There's a lot of frankly mythology out there, indicating that transit is is somehow a super spreader venue or or something along those lines. The data is really quite different on de especially if we have Universal mask use. There have been some national studies that suggest that riding transit is safe, but it's going to take a lot more than a couple of studies to regain confidence from writers. Rogoff says He hopes that all local transit agencies will come together for a PR campaign later this year to help push the safety of their trains and Busses as the lid comes off a little bit in terms of what the state Advises us to do on staying home. Probably a cool a coordinated Marketing plan on the part of the transit providers in the region to get people back and understand that it is safe to come back. I'm not exactly sure where these agencies they're going to come up with the money for an ad campaign since they're all still bleeding money, as Dave alluded to the fair box revenue isn't coming in the sales tax revenue is not coming in Sound Transit said last year that it expects a 6 to $12 billion shortfall in forecasted revenue over the next 20 years. And it could be out of cash. By the end of this year. The agency gets 50% of its funding from the sales tax revenue. But all the projects that are currently under contract like the expansions the Lynwood to Bellevue to Redmond and federal Way are not impacted by this expected shortfall. They're still on scheduled to open in 2023 2024. Very good. Ah! What do you think? Do you think people will go back? Tomo Rapid transit cause I mean, when the North Gate station when they conceded that that was a thriving shopping center, and now it's completely changed, right? I mean, we're gonna have a couple of sheets of ice up there. Maybe you know there's a coming. We're going to see a bunch of hockey sticks and hockey bags, hopefully Using that to get there, but it's hard to tell me this is such a transit friendly area and we had so many people riding transit. It's hard to imagine that once more people start going back to work or things like that, that we will see start seeing things come back a little. Will they come back? Like they used to. Probably not. Because the way that we go toe work has changed. So it'll be interesting to see if we ever get the numbers that were forecasted as we continue to build out light rail. All right, What's your traffic hot spot this morning? The traffic hot spot right now. Surprise surprise. It's rented on four or five North bound. I'll bring in the travel time and the rest of the map and coming up Next. This is Cairo. Radio Bonneville International Radio Station contests are open to participants at least 18 years of age or older that are residents of Washington State unless otherwise specified. Employees are agents of.
"rogoff" Discussed on Barstool Radio with Dave Portnoy
"Lead to have like cash is still the best feeling. That's cool trying to ban it though really way what who central banks really. Yeah ken rogoff. He's a very famous. Economists wrote a very popular book within central banking circles. Got how popular is that book. It's very popular in central banking in. Yeah yeah how. How how do you move to a cashless. Society and implement negative interest rate policy is basically the the thesis of the book shit so far over my ken. Rogoff ken rogoff. Who's the main The main foe of bitcoin. That you're everyone in the community is ready to just fucking dunk on outage. Steve munching butts the treasury secondhand help..
Decade in Review: The Economy
"Greg is the chief economics commentator at the Wall Street Journal. He's been covering the US economy not just for the past decade. But for the past past thirty years so greg let's go back in time. What did economists think would happen at the start of the decade when we were coming into the fall of two thousand and nine? We just come off the worst recession since the Great Depression and a lot of economists thought that Well we're going to have a recovery now and it's GonNa look like a lot of other recovery's that we've had so he thought interest rates. Is there close to zero. Now they're gonNA start rising out. Eventually they'll get to four percent. Unemployment was pretty high up around ten percent. Eventually it's going to get down to around five percent and it kind of makes sense because that's more or less what interest rates and unemployment had done in previous recovery's but they were wrong Interest rates stay low. They stay little year after that and you have to that and the year after that a it took a long time for them to start rising and even ten years later they had gotten nowhere near the four percent level. Everybody thought was normal. They're still oh well. Below two percent and run employment it kept dropping and dropping and dropping until ten years later was down to three and a half percent a level that nobody anticipated we could achieve so okay. They've gotten it wrong. Let's walk through the possible theories. The first one that you talked about is this debt hangover theory. What's out about so one of the theories about why things are so rough was became known as a hangover theory which was associated with Ken Rogoff at Harvard University and Carmen Reinhart also at Harvard and they wrote notable called this time is different eight centuries of financial folly and they basically carefully gone through every country that had ever gone through financial crisis to figure out? Well what can we learn about that. And they settled recovery from crisis or very very slow and the reason why is that businesses and households and banks of too much debt. That's why we had a crisis and so they're busy trying to pay down on that day. They're not borrowing new funds and making new investments. And also everybody's always afraid there's another crisis right around the corner so they wanNA keep all their money safe things like bank deposits deposits and treasury bonds. And so this kind of like aversion to taking any chances taking any risk keeps investment low growth low and because growth is low inflation is low and interest streets are low so that was a pretty popular for quite a few years about why things were mad and remember of course. It wasn't only the United States that had a crisis. The whole world had a financial crisis and then barely two years later. The euro-zone had a huge crisis where Greece defaulted and a bunch of other countries. Almost defaulted so that sounds like a pretty good explanation does is it. Work debt hangover theory certainly worked for several years. But you know after five or six years in the crisis was fading into the past and things were still looking Kinda lousy and folks were looking around saying You know maybe there's more to it than just the fact that we'd had a crisis maybe there's something more structural going on holding back the economy. Okay something more structure all something like secular stagnation right so around two thousand and thirteen Larry Summers who used to be the treasury secretary under Bill Clinton and was advisor Brock. Mama now now. He's at Harvard University. He comes out with a new theory for why things are so weak and he calls it secular stagnation and he gets a phrase from an economist. Also Harvard from back in the nineteen thirties. who used it to describe? Things were so weak during the Great Depression and summer says well look. There's a lot of structural things going on the economy that are holding growth interest rates low. Hello Demographics for example. Everybody around the world seems to be getting older and populations growing more slowly. Aging populations don't boroughs much money and businesses if they have fewer consumers there's and fewer workers they don't invest as much and he also said the nature of investments changed companies just don't invest as much of their profits as they used to they spend it on improving things like their software were algorithms. And so if you have a world where businesses and individuals. Just don't WanNa borough very much. That'll kind of Lee subdued growth in very low interest rates and that was a theory that seemed to work reasonably well for For quite a while not just the United States funding bunch of other countries as well like you know like Japan. Why doesn't secular organization explain how they got the decade all wrong at least in the United States while the secular tag nation argument Explains a few things like low interest rates but secular stagnation is also really gloomy. Let me theory like in the nineteen thirties. Unemployment State High Double Digits for quite a few years and that's clearly not happening in the United States. unemployment has continued to fall fairly steadily below four percent and the stock. Market's had terrific decade. I mean it's been a record bull market so maybe it's really pessimistic. Theory like secular stagnation isn't the whole story right. So unimplemented fifty year low. How could that possibly give us a better sense of what might have led to these wrong predictions for the past decade so when the unimplemented can fall as low as this so in the old days they used to unemployment couldn't fallen below five percent? Because then you would have bottlenecks in inflation but here we are at the three and a half percent unemployment rate and inflation remains extremely low. So that tells us something that economy just had a lot more spare resources a lot more people willing and able to work than we realized. And if that's the case then for the whole last decky economy has been operating well below its potential. There's a great big sort of gap between what the economy's been doing what it could do. And all that extra slack basically means that we have a lot of catching up to do and also means that there isn't a lot of pressure on inflation because there's a a lot of unused capacity sitting on the sidelines. A lot of workers who really WanNa work so if you spend a if you have a long way to catch up and you take a long time doing it. Then it's no surprise that inflation is low and it's no surprise that interest rates are low and also no surprise that the expansion has lasted a full decade. Somebody that could explain plane why we had this slow growth and low interest rates. It's not something that's fundamentally changed. The nature of the economy is just taking longer for things to get back to normal says Allah on it. Has the mystery been solved. You know the interesting thing is is that there is still a lively debate among economists about which of these theories is correct. Is it the debt hanger for theory. Is that the secular stagnation theory. Is that the just taking a long time to get back to normal theory. Is it a combination of all these things and a few things that we haven't even thought of and I guess the interesting thing is that we may have to wait another decade. Exactly why things behave the way they did in the last decade. Why should we care that? Economists got the decade wrong. Why should we care that? They couldn't accurately predict what the federal funds rate would be in the next year and the next two years three years a lot of our policies like but how high taxes should be how much we should we spend. How serious a problem is the budget deficit? How should interest rates go? They're all based around our suctions. About how fast the economy can grow at. How low unemployment should be able to go? So economists. Get all these things wrong than you have to rethink. What are the appropriate policies? So a lot of folks have been saying well. We're in big trouble because our debts. That's her so high but interest rates are so low in the private sector is not worried about government debts. Maybe we shouldn't worry either. And maybe it's okay to have larger deficits for longer than we used nice to think that's where the Federal Reserve when realizes that inflation has stayed for this long. There isn't as strong case raising interest rates as much so revisiting the last decade. Trying to figure out where you went wrong. It's pretty important for determining what the road policies are going forward.
"rogoff" Discussed on KOMO
"Peter Rogoff tells The Seattle Times design engineering and construction demands I mean major transit projects typically require a ten year schedule and there's not much you can do to speed things along king county council member Joe McDermott whose west Seattle district also faces a long wait for rail is philosophical he tells the times we need to make sure we do it right not just faster for when he call more news agents with the FBI and immigration and customs enforcement have turned state's driver's license databases into a facial recognition gold mine scanning through millions of American photos without their knowledge or consent drew Harwell following the story for The Washington Post Dan spoke with como's bill o'neil true when we say gold mine just how widespread is this practice spent more than twenty one states are currently opening their DMV records up to agents like though that the FBI and ice and the FBI alone have access to six hundred and forty one million photos or such and across a number of different federal local and state databases yeah there's just a huge amount of those photos of American citizens that can be used to begin again if you're in agent who's sort of searching for the name or address or any other information of somebody who's been caught on camera this is often the place you turn to so what is being done specifically with this information that's being gathered in a lot of these cases its agents who are pushing a criminal investigation they think they've either found a suspect in that case or maybe a witness or even a victim of a crime so they'll go to the state DMV and make a request I'll send an email or the get a court order or subpoena and like a Google search they'll give you the sort of photo to to look at the record and they'll go from there so you you know where we're seeing this having been used now for a number of years in multiple states across the country and there's this increasing almost reliance on these databases as sources for information on people who may never have expected there would be a part of that search for that we know the Washington state department of licensing was ordered not to cooperate with federal immigration officers do these kind of borders keep the fed from looking into those databases particularly you know I think orders like that and what we're starting to see those more I think they do place a certain amount of resistance and you know we're seeing the state serve take their own path and she's our little and how much they want to play ball with agents like those at the FBI nice and you know we've seen sort of there's been a resistance against any kind of federal consolidated push right to make one full database of every American citizen and yet some of these sort of laws including like a fan and temperatures go against public face recognition used their only sort of limited and to the geography really and so you know in a lot of these cases it would be a whole states were scanned by different agencies from across the country and you know sometimes the local sort of interest in the local server lawmaker initiative aren't really taking into account so but I I do think we're going to be seeing more laws like that as this becomes something that's much more debated certainly on Capitol Hill and in the houses across the country in yet there's no real full federal law to say either way how this technology should be used so right now we're just kind of in that gray area where it's being used in may be misused and cut the country all the time that's true or will you can read more online at washingtonpost dot com can call most bill o'neil with the interview and come was bill sports now from the Harley exterior sports desk the world champs are back on American so oil U. S. women's soccer team now in New York City a day after defeating the Netherlands the ticker tape parade is all set for Wednesday morning in the canyon of champions remember the last women's team on our parade there world champs from two thousand fifteen I was he writes for years ago boom you get a prize today tournament MVP and reign FC star Megan ripping us as it was way cool here all those fans in France chanting equal pay that's all transcendent moment outside of court outside of soccer meaning is like so much bigger than just what's happening on the field and the fans.
AT&T faces challenge of paying off debt while investing in expanded services
"If you owe the Bank one hundred dollars jay-paul getting one said, it's your problem. You're the Bank one hundred million dollars. It's the bank's problem yo a hundred and sixty nine billion dollars could be everybody's prompt from American public media. This is marketplace. In Los Angeles. On car result is Wednesday today. The twenty fourth of April good as always to have you along everybody we begin in corporate America today. We're quarterly earnings reports have been the barometer the past couple of weeks AT and T had. It's turn this morning. Did find not quite as good as everybody had been guessing. But fine, the real story of AT and T though, an increasing number of businesses in this economy is it's giant pile of debt company promised last year. It was going to do something about how much it owed, and it is trying to make good. It has lost hundreds of thousands of TV and wireless subscribers as it's moved money away from promotions into paying down that debt, but for dealing with debt free TNT and others could be a problem down the road. Marketplace's Benesch or has the story. A so AT and T owes a hundred sixty nine billion dollars debt levels are really really high. I mean, they haven't been most. Debt of any public US company right now Keat Snyder is an industry analyst with CF RA AT and T has a lot of stuff in needs to do like get more content for HBO develop a streaming service. Roll out five G networks. This is all expensive bad debt load is acting is kind of financial handcuffs to them. Why did it take on all this debt in the first place own part because it could interest rates have been super low for a decade? You're a company, and you can borrow at these very low rates, and you have something to do with the money, you'd be kind of crazy not to do it. Kenneth Rogoff is a professor of economics at Harvard corporate debt in general nearly doubled in the past twelve years from less than five trillion dollars to more than nine trillion dollars. The problem is that some of the people borrowing our borrowing with vary. You restrictions. They're going down into much chunkier kinds of debt. He says there could be one or even two trillion dollars worth of this kind of debt out there. And it's mostly not companies like AT and T whose debt is. Investment grade. It's small and medium sized companies. It presents a risk certainly if and when we head into our next recession Carl tanenbaum is chief economist at Northern Trust, the when you have lower rated corporate debt, what that means is that the distance between performance and default is that much shorter depending on how intertwined in the broader financial system. All this debt is defaults could be distabilise for the economy. Unfortunately, the best way to find out is further to be another recession for now a recession in the next year or seems unlikely so debt-laden companies may have a little longer to clean up their books, but not forever in New York. I'm Sabrina sure for marketplace.
"rogoff" Discussed on KOMO
"Approving measure sixteen thirty one which would impose a carbon tax on large polluters as of the first release of election results. Fifty six percent say node forty four percent four Nick Abraham's with the sixteen thirty one campaign. Unprecedented. And they were willing to kind of spend that to take their money and spend it on misleading in line to voters mistake. And you know, we know this is the future that people want clean energy because they want to do something about pollution. So. Highnesses ready to avoid this problem isn't going away. And we're not going away. Opponents raise more than thirty one million dollars mostly from oil companies estate record for statewide initiatives to fight the proposal in the race for the US Senate seat now held by democrat Maria Cantwell can't well one with fifty nine percent of the vote while Susan Hutchison has forty one percent for all the races. Go to KOMO news dot com. Well, there are published reports tonight of a major concern with a flight control system on the new Boeing, seven thirty-seven Macs. More from komo's Rick van Cise. Bloomberg reports the company is sending out a safety bulletin to airlines warning the flight monitoring system can give bad readings which in turn can cause the jets to quote aggressively dive, this comes as investigators are still gathering information on last week's crash in Indonesia of a Boeing seven three seven max that killed one hundred eighty nine people Bloomberg says pilots will be told to follow an existing procedure. If a plane goes into a dive, Rick van Cise. Komo news on transit chief executive Peter Rogoff is up for a double digit raise despite controversy over his abrasive leadership. Sound transit spokesman confirms. The board is considering bumping Rogoff. Showery. By eleven percent to three hundred sixty four thousand dollars Rogoff was denied a performance bonus last year after he was investigated for an abrasive management style, including use of. Profanity language considered sexist many school principals in Washington or not notifying teachers about students with criminal records, which they're required to do by law. Komo's shoe Romero tells us that's the finding of the state audit released this month, a student commits a crime, principals are required to notify all of that students teachers, but a state audit found that at least seventy school districts don't even have procedures to do that. Roth Thompson with the association of Washington school. Principal says, it's not clear what offenses require notification and who should be told. Fixed periods is that know, maybe case. Case manager. Maybe they have the counselor needs to know, knowing which I think needs to know the audit recommended forming a work group to address the problems that state agencies courts and educators face when it comes to deciding what information should be shared, and who should be notified, see Romero. Komo news neighborhood near north band are still waiting to hear when they can drink. Their tap water again over the weekend. Test results of the water showed. There was total coliform bacteria in it officials say it's possibly connected to vandalism last week when someone tampered with a holding tank resident Brian Murphy says it's been an adjustment. It is a little inconvenient..
"rogoff" Discussed on KOMO
"EEO Peter Rogoff a new contract the action passed eleven to two authorizing a subcommittee to draft a contract extension. Pierce county executive Bruce Dammeyer voted no telling KOMO promises to stay on time. And on budget have not been met by the agency a hundred billion dollar investment by the citizens of our community. And we're going to be doing construction for the next twenty years on this. And at this point for me. I just believe we can do better. Sound transit hired the management coach earlier this year after learning their Rogov had faced an internal investigation over allegations of verbal aggression, profanity and sexism towards staff. Komo news time is eight ten and gained three of the World Series in Los Angeles. It's bottom of the eighth in. It's tied. Dodgers Red Sox both tied at one apiece. And let's head over to the Harley exterior sports desk where there are close connections between the husky and bears football teams when they meet in Berkeley tomorrow. Komo's Bill Swartz is talking dawgs. Washington's Chris Peterson got to know California's Justin Wilcox when they were both at the university of Oregon since he's a player. Coach your news a debate. That's how far we go back, and you know, certain guys you around that you just always know like, okay, whatever this guy's decides to do do it. Really? Well, he's been that guy. Coach Pete made Wilcox his defensive coordinator at Boise state and Justin never forgotten the opportunity a good person. Excellent coach, obviously. And always always will Wilcox California staff includes husky legend, Marcus. Jasa Sopo Boise state defensive back Gerald Alexander former U dub strength coach, Tori, Becton and linebackers coach Peter sermon his son Jackson is a freshman on Washington's roster friendships end at three thirty where the team square off.
"rogoff" Discussed on KOMO
"Day's top local stories, a majority of sound transit's governing board has voted to start drafting a new contract with CEO, Peter Rogoff, despite the fact he has weathered intense criticism over his report was stabbed in taxpayers footing. The Bill for a management coach. Here's komo's. Carleen Johnson, Rogoff was the subject of personnel investigation that came to light earlier this year. The agency's board of directors criticized him for what they called an abrupt and direct management style. And he was denied yearly performance bonus. Then a tax payer funded management. Coach was also hired for Rogoff Pierce county, executive, Bruce Dan Meyer was one of the only two no votes yesterday to keep Rogoff on CEO. He tells KOMO there have been far too, many delays and over budget projects, and he complains it will still be years before Pierce county sees any benefit not addressing overruns or narrowing cut of focusing on finding ways to save money as much as I would like that's a concern. Particularly if you're in Pierce county, looking north and seeing the work going up there. No, we're a long ways from it new contract. Offer not finalized yet. Not clear how much he would be paid for it. Either right now Rogoff earns about three hundred twenty nine thousand dollars a year. Carleen Johnson, KOMO news. When the UW light rail station opened in two thousand sixteen. Broke ridership records. Unfortunately, as when escalators to the train platform. Also started breaking down district light rail station opens in two thousand twenty one it will include stares down to the train platform. Unlike the U dub station at husky stadium, which writers can only access via one of its thirteen escalators. And they frequently breakdown Kimberly reason with sound transit admits they made a mistake at U dub station by not including stairs. And also using escalators. That weren't considered transit grade. We were doing our best to pay the tax payer money. And we did we ended up initially fading two hundred million when the project was all. And now she estimates. It will cost about twenty million to replace all thirteen escalators at the U dub station with stronger ones. And also stairwells reason says the replacements should be done by twenty twenty two about a year. After the new u district station opens sirocco, KOMO news. Komo news time is two four time.
"rogoff" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Christopher cruise I'm Barry ritholtz you're listening to Nassar's and business on Bloomberg radio. My special guest today, is, Torsten slack he is the chief international economist at Deutsche, Bank securities you know I want to talk a little bit about your career. Path is somewhat I don't wanna say, unusual because lots of people go from government institutions and banks to Wall Street but yours meandered through Europe to Paris to. New York tell us right out of graduate school? That was Princeton correct yeah so I did get? My PHD from Copenhagen but it has been in Princeton where I got the Americanized then opened, up my eyes for what this country can do. So where tell. Us about the the career path did you go. From Copenhagen to the OCD though so. I I did my in Copenhagen and as part, of. The program, in most European countries they ask you to go to a US university Let's just say, the way, it is. That the quality of the programs in several European countries. If not most is nowhere near, what you can get in the US so that's why they encourage people say go and take a year somewhere. And the government said we'll pay the tuition will pay your room and board why don't you go, this and sorry this I'm sorry your tuition and room. And board was paid graduate level absolutely was paid by, education? Is. Free and actually all Nordic countries but what, else is bringing the country healthcare is also free tells us laugh goes a higher but how much higher so average tax. Rates roughly around fifty five fifty seven percent it's? Not about ten fifteen percentage point higher than here? You get, free healthcare free education which I was so large benefit from which brought me therefore, in my one year to New Jersey to Princeton Hi where I got to work with various professors I, wake, with Mike Boorda who was visiting the time Barry I was a. Research assistant for, them, and they basically said. You should go and try and get an internship at the, IMF and I said okay that could be fun and I did an internship with the IMF the following summer and. I figure out quicker than. Internships in this country is about figuring out if you wanna. Do that job permanently they want to, keep you and I was so, lucky that they offered me a job. So in one thousand, nine hundred eight I started in the economy's program the, program at the. At the IMF and by the way if memory. Serves Princeton's economics department was a powerhouse well at the time Hanky panky women of the department and yeah and you also had Ken Rogoff was also there the. Time and I didn't interact. With them all the time but I mean they were then. As professors want to talk to students, which I was so incredibly lucky, that they also want us to talk. To me so yeah, that's true it was really interesting ground fo just. Getting, again at academic Overview of what's going on in different areas and specializing in the in the areas that I wrote about so the IMF to OCD was at the next. Step yes, I did. Spend a year at a Bank of America in New York But after that then I did go to the Perez and Perez some of my former managers from the IMF. Had moved to Deutsche Bank and specifically David Wagner slenda. Who. I still have the pleasure of working with today migrate colleague being Khachatryan If I wanted to come to work for. Jamaica New York and in two thousand five I said yesterday and I've been sitting in that chair for the, last, thirteen years and counting and enjoying every moment of so that's pretty fascinating so. You're now on Wall Street for a dozen years how different is it today than it was when. You joins right in the middle of the credit and housing boom I think, one very important differences that in two thousand five hundred thousand six obviously there was, much fewer worries about all, the things that actually turned out to be really important we have gotten much more humble first of? All, in terms of forecasting ability but also in terms of what is it actually that we need to look at which also gets, back to why, do I have my little business model today of just sending a child and a few sentences well some of the idea is that I cannot just only look at a certain small set of indicators because, if I do that I risk that I'm missing something that, actually could turn out to be extremely. Important so the, straw that breaks the cabinets back here is not only necessarily invasion unemployment but could be something coming out. Of the blue that. I had just not appreciated enough so inflation risks can. Come from different sources but mostly bonded recession risks can now come from a whole range of different sources so, I, would say that over the last at least decade a very important change in. The way that the economics profession on the street is working is that you got to open your. Eyes more to risks that out there and asking constantly are these risks important, how these risks playing out is this something I should be spending more time on, so so let's Delvin into, that a little bit what do you think I'm gonna ask this question in a little bit of? A, skewed way what do you think are potential risks that much of either the investor class or the economists class might be overlooking Well I think. That the sort of the number one organic risk that we spoke about earlier is that there's a upsides to inflation You? Can then say we economics profession and also, the fed had been crying wolf all these years and. Inflation why should, it come now so maybe there's some uncertainty about that risk. But also other risks that I think are very important first of, all the fiscal expansion requires a lot of net issuance, of treasuries and if you expand the amount of safe assets in the world if you expand their amount of treasuries that are outstanding you are basically beginning to compete with the risk free. Assets with more risky as. This is exactly what we're seeing in some sense issues that's competing with light bulbs competing with Commissioner paper probably even competing with. That if you, suddenly offer, to investors a, lot more, risk free as many as is that have basically no risk associated with them in this case US treasuries then investors will of. Course our rather have a risk free asset rather than have a, risky asset, with.
"rogoff" Discussed on KOMO
"To make a risky assumption about federal funding the agency's chief executive wanted to wait until fall to finalize construction contracts on the northgate lynnwood light rail extension now peter rogoff says construction costs arising so fast he may have to lock in construction contracts this summer there remains uncertainty about the federal funding at that time the board will face a decision whether to award the early construction contracts even without complete certainty on the federal funding agencies still waiting for congress to sign off on a billion dollar federal transit grant rogoff says he has little choice but to approve a final budget before that grant is certain cheaper labor and more space to grow to the reasons amazon is moving some jobs from its central operation center to phoenix komo's carleen johnson report wanted it thirty jobs being cut here are at amazon's operation center in seattle where they route drivers who deliver groceries and other items as an amazon prime member you'll now be able to was informed of the mood of phoenix earlier this year and now it is happening in a month starting pay for those jobs here in seattle according to the seattle times is fifteen forty five in phoenix they start at eleven twenty five so big labor savings for amazon has happens to is outrage over the head tax on large employers continues chris camacho is the president and ceo of the greater phoenix economic council are taking their heads up their their tax people in in hr people are looking at maybe now's the time where we divest from our current labor market and we're going to see these companies that are these scalable enterprises looking at alternative locations says operating costs and phoenix are.
"rogoff" Discussed on Talk 1260 KTRC
"We ship santa fe dot com compulsive overprotective even in our reten of and the complements never end always free pickup hi this is dr josh rogoff of the rogoff dental group whether your needs call for general cosmetic or more complex restorative dentistry the most successful course of treatment depends on your dentists ability to exercise care skill and judgment care to make your health and appearance the highest prayer he skill to expertly perform whatever is needed with total precision and judgement to know and help you decide the best options to meet your needs that's the promise we make and that's a promise we keep to help welcome you to our dental practice we will donate half of the initial exam fee for all new patient we will provide a list of local nonprofit organizations that you can select from at your first appointment find out more at rogoff dental group dot com mary it's so good to see you how are you liking your assisted living apartment here at the modest sito poll rachel i just want to thank you for advising the finally in by reducing the amenities at the modest cesar for years but never realised on the father ceo is like its own village that's a great first back of mary well it's throat with a modest sees those fully equipped spa sell garbo's restaurants starlight allowance i hardly need to leave the property i couldn't be more please now that i moved into the assisted living here at the mas i have support and care around the clock paul while still being able to.
"rogoff" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Two dollars that's a bloomberg business flash tom john love those data chicks realize hope bitcoin boost self over the list 24 owes off to look at the chart on the bloomberg terminal it a moment that's what you do when you listen to occur moscow data check it is a spectacular day beautiful beautiful day here in davos and this morning merely through some real hardships of getting to the world economic forum listen to a panel i did among our panel members were the bank or just daily of barclays kenneth rogoff who's been such a supportive bloomberg surveillance he's with harvard university and thereby book of the year last year the curse of cash all that pushed aside by the acclaim of rhino art in rogoff this time is different we had a panel and there was a conversation with just a of barclays and can rogoff a harvard and of course the major theme was is this time different nastja ronkko great now claim withdrew workman kurman reiner this time is due do you feel that now is the time is imprint i mean i i i feel we're still coming out of the last that apple i suppose it eight the systemic lupus with light we experience has a long after alive and taking a two ten years to fully recover is not unusual and i i must say a lot of the talked about secular stagnation good again flights genuine essex blunt demographics of activity with uh the financial crisis and so i'm absolutely i'm not going to tell you there's not gonna be another crisis sales of my book collapse but i'm optimistic going forward about you know where the world economy is at the moment we can talk about could there be a crisis of course debris recession absolutely but i absolutely think we're at the tail end of the last one in a typical pretty typical your doctorate what was it number one lesson we learned coming out of this crisis i a certain later people in been consulted depth in that everything in a go to the.
"rogoff" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410
"Dollars that's a bloomberg business flash tom and john kerr love those data chicks that don't realize hope bitcoin boost self over the list 24 owes off to look at the church on the bloomberg terminal in a moment that's what you do when you listen to occur in moscow due to check it is a spectacular day beautiful beautiful day here in davos and this morning many through some real hardships of getting the world economic forum listen to a panel i did among our panel members were the banker just daily of barklays kenneth rogoff who spent such a supportive bloomberg surveillance here's with harvard university by book of the year last year the curse of cash all that pushed aside by the acclaim of reinhard in rogoff this time is different we had a panel and there was a conversation with justice scalia barclays and ken rogulski harvard and of course the major theme was is this time different learn who wrote a all right now and claim of your weren't recovering reiner time is different to you now hiring is different i mean ice the old are still coming out of the last couple of the serbs stomach menalco guys with light experience has long after alive eight to ten years the fully recover is not unusual and i i must say a lot of the talked about secular stagnation ankle napper good again couldn't play genuinely plunged demographic a deputy with on the financial crisis and so i'm actually i'm not tell you they're not going to be another amplifies the sales of my book qleyle but i'm kind on domestic going forward about it aware of the world economy is at the moment we can talk about emphasised course every reception absolutely but i absolutely think were the tail end of.
"rogoff" Discussed on Marketplace All-in-One
"The senate bill delivers on that promise it lowers the corporate rate from 35 to twenty percent but there's a catch that cut wouldn't go into effect until 2019 and that may not seem like a big deal but it is for some kenneth rogoff from harvard again people might wonder will it ever happen when these things get host prone they can always change there's an election in two thousand eighteen that means the balance of power in congress could shift and so the idea is that the gop should lower the corporate tax rate now that would be hard and costly to repeal and there are other ways the senate proposal differs from the tax bill put out by the house of representatives the house bill gets rid of a tax break that's popular among college grads the deduction for student loan interest the senate bill keeps that deduction and the house bill cuts the number of federal tax brackets to pass the tax bill the two chambers of congress are going to have to come up with one version which means they battle to work out that's marketplace's marielle sagarra and if you still need to make sense of what the house and senate tax plans main credits deductions and more just go to our website marketplace dot org two the story throughout the eu are more than just taxes of course which is why every week we bring you the news at five a numbers with marketplace's tony wagner sarah menendez tie ours thanks lizzy ri number is five hundred and twentyfive million that so many dollars the government of abu dhabi paid to name a new museum lose after the original in paris the loop abu dhabi can use the name for thirty years and for another three quarters of a billion the louvre museum in paris agreed to provide advice and artwork on lawn the abu dhabi museum has been ten years in the making and came in way over budget three hundred that's many locations bostonbased bakery cafe all bond pen has earlier this week bred giant panara announced it would acquire the smaller chain and develop it in new locations that sort of a bread reunion for both james hoban pen bought the st louis red company in 1991 and later renamed panara panara groove sold oddson pan in 1999 eighteen years later the.
"rogoff" Discussed on Marketplace All-in-One
"Yeah when you pay state and local taxes you get to deduct though is anur federal income tax returns about forty four million people do that every year the house bill gets rid of most of us deductions with an exception for up to ten thousand dollars in property taxes the senate bill goes even further and it gets rid of state and local tax deductions entirely kenneth rogoff an economics professor at harvard says that hurts some states more than others the state and local tax reduction is a huge benefit for states like new york and california which how very high tax rates compared to other so getting rid of it would be a big blow to residents and lawmakers from those states and some of them are republicans by the way and what about the corporate tax rate both bills low rate from 35 to twenty percent rate but in the senate bill that cut wouldn't go into effect until 2019 and that's ruffling feathers because a big part of these gop push for tax reform is the promise that corporations will get a lower tax rate at kenneth rogoff again if they differ it for a year people might wonder will it ever happen there's an election in two thousand eighteen and the idea is if lawmakers lower that tax rate before that happens it would be harder and more costly to repeal another area that probably a lot of people are interested in is the deduction for student loan interest how did the bills handle that one.
"rogoff" Discussed on Coffee House Shots
"Of the nature of the recovery following the crash which has been in most of the economies one of the slowest recovery may be rogoff is right that recovery after of financial crash tends to be slower but there's been wakes that wage stagnation in america as well in europe germany has has had its wage stagnation and it has and because people have seen in a sense in terms of wealth the rich get richer and people are ordinary wagees struggling just to trade water they have gone for mr trump offer brexit offer afd of forty percent for le pen in the french presidential elections are bab something even more worrying for your party the i'm just a journalist now the o r that's my life what can i say you're former party now i'm still a member of economic growth and i was right your party that i have some disagreements we've howard so the the the more operations government the moral and economic case for capital particularly among young people is felt to be weak now and i i would put to you that that is a result of the aftermath of the crash in everything we've been talking about what i think it's a result of a crash not necessarily off tomorrow in the sense that i'm not sure i would say this and others may disagree on social there's anything that could have been done radically different that would have delivered very different outcomes for people off to such an economic shock and when you look at the history of this you look at what happened in the twin cities in thursay's article in the 1870s similar appeared it caused enormous ructions and political systems in europe in america and elsewhere and so we have actually lord done a better jobs than previous generations in containing some of these things and we haven't had the scar of high unemployment i mean i think if we'd had.
"rogoff" Discussed on KVNT Valley News Talk
"And final hour on your drive time it's a drive time show morning hour show if you didn't know that already come on you should have known that sixty and the 90 m monday through friday we have our apps through google play an through i tunes you should get an iphone come on but we have it for those of you that don't have iphone news at school that's okay that's okay you don't wanna get apple products and be be with the times that's okay no pe unattended because we're going to talk about anchorage daily news turning into alaska dispatch news and now bankruptcy that's the story this hour i want to talk about alice rogoff saying nope cash in it in bankruptcy court imminent and who pops in their jason evans the i think it's alaska media group in the name of his company he runs owns publishes the arctic sounder bristol bay times dutch arbor fishermen and i know that they print their papers here at the frontiers the newspaper building we're we're out dennis andersson with what communications prince there's he also prince the arctic warrior on the base out here in the valley and the eagles and the tell keating the press in the anchorage press in the frontiers been and some other papers homer i think as well so we'll see what happens there that would be a fun wanted to talk to dennis about off air are they going to try to print the alaska dispatch news out here ores again it'd be reverse where where jason and the bank lee sons john bentley's kids are also part of the buyout john bentley the former state senator up in fairbanks i think this is a big deal must read alaska on it and you know suzanne downing so good so good at that isn't she you gotta check hirsad must read alaska dot com.
"rogoff" Discussed on Stuff To Blow Your Mind
"All right well let's let's talk a little bit about the glaciers of svolvar yes in its this will hopefully if you don't know what about glaciers maybe this will serve as a an introduction to them i learned a thing doing this research that there is a job called a glaciologist now it people who just study glaciers in apparently many of them live in small sauberford yaoming glaciers cover sixty percent of us fall barred and it's it i feel like glaciers of one of these areas with it easy to dismiss them as just sort of of vestiges of along departed ice age and think of ozone deci sitting around in falling into the sea right yeah in fact at the only time we really hear about glaciers like in the news is when big parts of them fall into the sea like was it last week wasn't there like a huge antarctic glacier that rogoff yeah yeah so you we can only pay attention when stuff like that happens when it's really up at when it's when it's really a headline worthy but yet glaciers are not timeless remnants there rather complex structures and they are given to the cyclical and progressive change so these titans advanced to the sea by as much as ninety eight feet or thirty meters each year while winter births a new glacial ice and each spring uh these at giants bleed fresh water from the era crystalline heart yeah yeah that is a great way to describe it in a i'll get into this in a couple minutes but the glaciers they're like your metaphor of them bleeding is actually pretty accurate because there's different types of ice within them and they melt different consistency's based on pressure not on temperature down different chambers and yet that they've they really kind of have their own anatomy.