20 Burst results for "Robert Schiller"
How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events
"I recently celebrated a birthday with a good day peaceful. What I didn't have was a birthday cake and we did not seeing the Happy Birthday Song Robert Schiller in his book Narrative Economics and which today's episode title comes from the Subtitle of his book wrote that the Happy Birthday Song. Maybe the best known song of all time he mentioned. It's not particularly admired for its beauty or grace. It grew unplanned and uncontrolled he writes. There is no history of a government edict requiring the song to be Sung or a marketing campaign promising lifelong popularity for those who sing it or have it sung to them. The song spread like an epidemic in the nineteen twenties and thirties fell back a little bit during World War. Two and then it began again Warner Chappell. Music had a copy rate from nineteen thirty five collected millions of dollars up until two thousand sixteen when it was determined. That happy birthday to you was very very similar to an eighteen. Ninety three song titled Good Morning To all sounded exactly the same and so they lost the trademark. The Happy Birthday Song went viral. Like an epidemic. We have all become more familiar. I think with the mathematics behind epidemics. One of the first theories was proposed in one thousand nine hundred eighty seven by William or guilty KEROUAC and Anderson Gray. Mckendrick KEROUAC was a Scottish biochemist Kendrick. A Scottish physician. It was as simple model. It was called the Sir model where they divided the population. The percentage of the population that is susceptible to a disease the percent of the population that is infectious and the percent of the population that is recovered and they add up to one hundred percent. According to their model an epidemic ends when the percentage of the population that recovers and is immune is increasing to such a level that leaves less people that are susceptible and those susceptible people are then less likely to be exposed to those that are infected. Now there are much more complex models. There's what's known as compartmental model called Se. I H F R or s this for susceptible e is exposed is infected. H is hospitalized. F is dead but not buried and our is recovered or buried a lot more complexity there in this episode we're going to look at how narratives stories impact financial decisions and they act very similarly to a disease virus in terms of how they spread and then fall back and the epidemic ends now that the global economy has been shut down for a month or more government officials have to decide. How are they going to restart the economy and as citizens we have to decide? How actively are we willing to participate in the economy in terms of going out in public again? There are several scenarios that very much depend on what percent of the population is susceptible versus having recovered. It's possible there are millions millions. That were ASEP dramatic and so we have heard immunity or perhaps not the economy could be opened up again to let the virus spread. There could be a second wave. And there's the risk of overwhelming the healthcare system so that there's a spike in death because a large percentage of the population is still susceptible or the economy could open up and deaths don't spike because the virus has been spreading for months and a large percentage of individuals are already immune that would mean that the overall mortality rate is much lower closer to that of the flu because so many people have had it and we know approximately how many people have died or and this is probably what's going to happen. We're going to open up. The economy gradually and see how things evolve. There's a great deal of uncertainty before we continue. Let me pause and share some words from one of this week sponsors policy genius. There's things that we look back on and think how could I be so wrong? The truth is we're always going to get things wrong. That's just life but there are also things we can get right on the first try like shopping for life
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And expectedly fell in December posting the worst drop in nine years in a sign of slower economic momentum at year end amid financial market turmoil and the government shutdown for more on this. We bring in Kuttra Kacha, Jimmy Dmitry, Eva and catchy. It's times. Like this. You start hearing. Whispers of the our word too soon. Yes. Absolutely. This is something we're we're hearing again today, as we call communists about these really scary numbers. Really? I mean to be honest. No, economists had expected this kind of a dip in retail sales for December. In fact, it was so bad that they even started questioning how much we should rely on these data when we have other data pointing to a pretty steady economy and these kind of came out of nowhere. But it is as you said one of the signals that we look for one of them as a consumer spending consumer sentiment, and when we talk about a recession and the potential for a recession, and you're hearing a lot more about this our word lately because whether it's the poll the Bloomberg poll that showed that recession expectations are two six year high. There's also people like, Paul Krugman, and Robert Schiller who are talking about the. The risks of a recession when we could potentially see one and see that contraction coming so far it's kind of late two thousand nineteen twenty twenty phenomenon. But this is one of the things that makes you take a step back and think okay, where where are we right now in the economy? What's your reaction to any c- director, Larry cudlow, telling reporters that this was likely a glitch Ghezzi? Yeah. Glitzy and the reason that he's saying that as well as a lot of other economists, he's definitely not alone in saying that it's a glitch or some aberration is because all the other indicators were seeing point to a strong consumer. So we had consumer sentiment for the month, which was pretty high. We had a lot of the job and wage numbers. Like, we just heard about the unemployment rather the jobless claims numbers that also came out today. And then we also had the monthly jobs report, which pointed to super solid payroll gains and continued wage gains. So in that kind of environment, you think okay, consumer strong consumers confident despite all these headwinds of the government shutdown and the trade war, they're still on solid footing. So where did this report come from, especially when we had private data from Redbook showing that it was the biggest holiday going back several years for for retail sales. So there is some doubt being thrown on this as well, as I mentioned, the seasonal factors and also the shutdown could have delayed something's this. This really did just come out of left field. It did. I mean aside from the fact that new economists were expecting it. We weren't really looking for this kind of a low reading either. So when you look through the data where did the drops come in? And it was all discretionary spending. Right. So we had gains in things like autos and building materials. These are things that are big things that people have to be really confident in order to buy and especially the building materials, you would think. Okay, housing sales housing starts you need a mortgage need a certain amount of money for this kind of a large purchase. So there is sort of a bit of a silver lining there. But that's really at everything else, you know, clothing going out groceries like it all across the categories fell for for the month. And so what's ahead? Does this number possibly get revised? Yes. So the other thing it's interesting you mentioned revisions because the prior month was also revised down and going forward. We're talking to analysts who are saying we expect these numbers to bounce back up. They're expecting for these numbers to be revised. And they're also expecting some sort of a note on why we had this kind of this kind of a dip the other risks though. I mean, there are still risks on the horizon, we're talking about potentially potentially another government shutdown. If things don't get worked out. We also are seeing some stories on the terminal today about tax refunds being a than expected. So if you have a lower than expected tax refund all that boost in spending you're making throughout the year. And that we saw in October November might not be might not be playing out kind of going forward, and broader sort of big picture. Economy is is is still solid footing. But we are expecting that to tick down across categories because remember we talked about the fiscal stimulus all the spending that provided last year that's not going to be continuing into into twenty nineteen. So this this definitely is is a red flag and something for the fed to watch out for when they're thinking about raising rates, or maybe even cutting some people expect so this is definitely something that they have to keep in mind in future conversations as well. So if this really is a recession indicator, what should be what should we be watching for to confirm this, right? So this is one of many so consumer spending a huge retail sales are huge they make up the majority of the economy. But then there's also things like the yield curve business sentiment manufacturing surveys and overall global growth because the US isn't an island were largest economy. But there's other countries out there. And so far what we're seeing on those indicators are not necessarily conclusive we had the yield curve earlier shows sort of. Showing us that there was three the probability of recession rose, but that's happened before without a recession. We also had business sentiment. That's been kind of up and down, especially small businesses are at least optimistic, but you know, that could be a one month phenomenon as well. We haven't seen we've seen sort of a salary outlook. But again, we've we've been here before and we're still historically at high levels and then manufacturing surveys, although they took a dip again, they're still historically pretty high. So if we do continue to see slumps across all of these then we'll start talking about a recession because like bigger expectations for a recession. I should say because that's business investment and consumer investment. So those two things together following in unison for a longer period of time is not good news. Our thanks to cut you Dmitri. Eva, Bloomberg news economy reporter. And of course, these numbers we will.
"robert schiller" Discussed on AM 1590 WCGO
"In the nineteen seventies. Who built a house in county in Utah? He was the only wanting the entire county that got a building permit that year because you can afford to interest rates. Jeez. I remember they used to be so high. Don't you uncle my wife, and I bought our first home in one thousand nine hundred seventy nine a VA loan eleven and a quarter percent. My gosh, we. Yeah. The thing to understand when you take the low rates that we've done do you act. Economics in itself is not an exact science because it just is what it is. But it's a lot like a river or an ocean or lake whatever it creates its own path. And then and women. And the lesson inches. You can't okay. Done. Possibly can what's going to happen? It's the flip side you if you're going to keep race you're going to have to respond. Equal timeout with high rates. Little highlights successful percent rates. We're talking really. Equal out the period of time. Naturally occurs. So looking back at our recession. I'm talking with John Crozier going back to the recession. Are you seeing? What similarities are you seeing in what happened in two thousand two thousand nine? This is the thing that people need to understand a recession. Never happens the same way twice. Okay. Okay. Fair. Be like it wasn't two thousand made. It's not gonna be overnight the markets not just going to switch off. This is going to be a market that blind. Like an engine without oil. Basically what's going to happen rates are gonna get so high it could happen fast. But most likely you're going to try to control it, right? Control everything else. Essentially point where the average you cannot afford the average mortgage. Clark. Using trouble. They can't get high priced cars. Actually, they can't afford the high price. Percents. APR is no longer. They can't wait anymore. And. The thing that slows McConnell me. Damn it. It's different every time. Right, right. Other thing. I wanted to mention to everybody is the Schiller now. Robert schiller..
Goldman Sachs doesn't see a recession in our immediate future
"This is the Ray Lucia show. Talk show in America, the help to make better money moves right here on business talk radio helping you along the way, and I'll tell you what a very interesting show planned for today. Goldman Sachs I up little sign of recession for the next three years. Now, I don't know. Goldman Sachs knows what they're talking about. I suspect they do. I like that. I like the fact that Goldman Sachs does not see a recession. They say a recession is muted and below average even three years from now. There's only thirty six percent chance of recession. You know, what that means party goes on folks, the party goes on and Tolman? Should know. I'm being a little bit facetious there because they don't. I've talked about the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratios predictability in the past on how market returns do and we have found that to be flawed. If you go back to two thousand sixteen and you looked at the C A P ratio. The Robert Schiller CAP predictable ratio. Stocks aren't supposed to be doing anything. Right now in two thousand seventeen of course, a banner year twenty eight not looking so bad either. So when I read these headlines, I put everything in perspective.
"robert schiller" Discussed on WLS-AM 890
"I have fat saints where my own then, you know, the name of the fund I don't have to spell it out. I'm glad to hear that. So that particular recommendation, thank you. Thank you. So that particular thank you that particular fund is the fund that I have used for that purpose. I recommend your consideration of that fund for your purposes that you've mentioned you're going to get extremely low expenses. You're going to get a very high level of diversification. You're also going to get the simplicity of investing in one fund. And you're also going to get tax efficiency with that fun because it is an index fund the vanguard total stock market index would be my answer to your question. Gladys and a great question, by the way, one I asked myself, many, many moons ago and decided on the very same fund, and I could not possibly be happier with my selection. John is on the line in Venice, Florida. John welcome. Bob, high again, thank you. I'm sensing a lot of complacency regarding stock market prices average, seller and talks about this long-term upturn in consumer confidence and uses the term complacency. Let me just say something about Robert chiller couple of things number one. I think Robert Schiller is a really smart guy. I think Robert Schiller is a highly intelligent individual having said that I think his ten year trailing earnings model is deeply flawed deeply flawed because it includes in it. Periods of deep drop in earnings periods like, especially two thousand eight two thousand nine and what happens is when you include when you normalize periods. Like that by putting them into a ten year, timeframe them. What I think happens is you get a distorted you get a distorted answer. I've always felt this way about the the Robert Schiller work and about his valuation work, and I have to say, and I'm not trying to a nut trying to be negative on Robert Schiller. And I'll tell you why. Because it's not in my nature to be negative on somebody else in the business. But I have to tell you this his work in terms of its valuation work on the market. It's been completely wrong. It's been totally wrong. That's pretty interesting. Look at it. Look at his ten year. Look at his ten year earnings number look at the valuation work. That's come out of that ten year timeframe and look at what the market has done, and you will see that that valuation work has been completely misleading. And if you had actually followed that valuation work, it would have been impossible for you to be fully invested as we have been in the market timer investment letter. So I mean, that's that's why it's a big deal because you know, why it's a big deal. John. This is why because there are only a handful of times another time was ninety nine which was the end of an incredible five-year run in the total market where you had games of over twenty percent five consecutive years which ended at the end of nineteen ninety nine. And we know what followed that. Well, it's very very important, and we were fully invested back then too. So it's very very important to take full advantage of such times as these because here's why because they're extremely rare extremely rare. I mean, if you wanted to call this a stock market melt-up. It would be hard to criticize if you if you said something like that. It'd be really hard to criticize you so I mean, we have seen an historic run in stock market prices. Therefore, it's extremely important to have been fully invested during a time like this and the stock market because of all the prophets that are generated at a time like this. That's why it's so important. That's why I react the way. I do. Yes. Robert Schiller is a very highly intelligent individual. But this ten year line of earnings that goes all the way back reaches all the way back to the financial crisis of oh eight. That is in my opinion that is the wrong way to analyze valuation in the market. I have not used his model, and I am attorney really thankful that I have ignored his work. Bob Brinker here. More to come. It's money.
As students balk at debt, colleges offer to take salary share
"Thanks Martin now. With our other top stories I'm Joe Schneider Bloomberg has learned that York capital management has. Offered as much as three hundred fifty million dollars to buy abroad group stakes in its private equity funds York, is trying to beat out three. Other bids for the embattled Dubai buyout firm slumbers as looking at selling stakes in oil fields that it, accrued alongside clients who implored the company, to help drill wells and manage production just months after a one billion dollar acquisition of Canadian oil and gas wells that rankled. Investors the company's little known slumber j. production management unit is seeking to exit some investments in producing assets President Trump lashed out. Today China and, the European Union thing they have been manipulating their currencies and undermining America's competitive edge. Yell. University sterling, professor of, economics Robert Schiller spoke with Bloomberg about the president's tweet I. Don't know where this. Confidence is going Also the US, does not encourage autocrats like other countries have in. The past he's got a lot of enemies So it's a very unstable situation for the stock market I. Think even though volatility is down Volatility it's actually a risky time to be in the market President Trump is breaking with decades of tradition that president avoid commenting directly on the dollar or. The path of US monetary policy as more students balk. At the debt load face after graduation some colleges are. Offering an alternative will pay, your tuition if you offer us a percentage of your future salary we hear more from Bloomberg's Lisa parental Norwich university in. Vermont is the latest schools, to offer this type, of contract known as an income share agreement in contrast with traditional loans. Students with these arrangements pay back a percentage of their salary for a set period of time those touting the program say they give colleges greater incentive to help. Students, find high earning jobs after graduation income share agreements where. I proposed in the, nineteen fifties now nearly thirty schools across the country are offering the. Program the terms can vary notably the length of the. Agreement and the salary percentage most agreements.
"robert schiller" Discussed on WTVN
"The market up one week and down the next so how are we supposed to know what to do bestselling author in front of the show patrick kelly says that we should never make decisions based on what other people are saying about the market no one really knows what the markets are going to do because they're driven so much on emotion it may be that it's a great time it may be that it's a terrible time i wouldn't say this we have a long protracted bull market on our hands and it doesn't go up straight forever but here's what your listeners need to do the one thing that can guarantee that it's always a good time to be able to take advantage of the market's growth is if they can put themselves somewhere where they're guaranteed contractually guaranteed no matter what the market does to never take a loss that is the main thing that individuals need to do to plan for an achieve a successful retirement sounds good in theory but guys there's no guarantees in life you know it's interesting i was just trying to remember exactly why of course we mentioned roger ibbotson earlier in the show but another professor yell professor that we heard on a panel speaking has name as dr robert schiller he brought up an interesting concept as well as it but sin about emotional financial decision making they had a phrase for an i can't i can't think of the term finding behavioral finance and so one of the papers that professors schiller wrote actually is all about that about how most of the time our financial decisions are not based on any factual evidence or research is really behavioral based it's it's emotional and so you know that's why it's so bad to have your portfolio a all in one place and not diversified because you know that's a big financial mistake there that could happen if if you've made a financial purchase based on emotions and it's all in one place you're going to strike out bad and then also if you're approaching retirement and you not duress your overall portfolio and as the markets move up and down which they do no matter what any of us do they're going to do that they're gonna move up and down right and so then you're basing your selling out or buying in on the ups or downs and that's not good as well because that's all emotional base that is in the huge factor in success is what's called sequence of returns which no financial planner no adviser no one has any control over the.
"robert schiller" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM
"The you guys got to question some of the biggest minds on wall street recently we were talking about that before the break there and how these guys robert schiller and roger edson understand that we're human creatures we are emotional creatures and we often let that drive our financial decisions but you also talked to them about just how retirement planning and investing has changed over the years to right we got to ask them a few questions about where where they kind of think the markets are going you know what's going to happen with interest rates and what we can kind of anticipate over the next ten years and so you know they were careful as far as making any specific predictions they don't have a crystal ball either record on there they did provide a lot of nuggets that can kind of give you an idea of what they expect to happen over the next little bit and so i'll read you a quote here schiller robert schiller said we have been in a bull market since two thousand nine we've been on quieter run and many people have become complacent but they really should be balancing their portfolio and lowering risk so he's kind of giving a cautious word out there saying hey this is lasted for almost ten years you should be balancing out things but what they're seeing in the market is the people of kinda falling in love one hundred percent with the stock market again kind of a forgot what two thousand eight felt like and they're not balancing they're not the risking their portfolio and then roger emerson said something similar he said a downmarket during retirement can be devastating so you need to de risk your portfolio while you are working your salary acts like a bond portfolio providing consistent income when you retire you need to lower oh your risk.
"robert schiller" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM
"Of our favorite guests from over the years here on this show that's country singer carrie underwood there no you guys every once in a while i'll get to hang out with some celebrities do some great interviews for the show here but also recently you were able to hang out with some of the best minds in the financial industry really pick their brains about what's happening right now with the markets and just kind of how we're wired as investors and so i want to take away some of the lessons that you learned from these gentlemen can you explain who you met with i saw that with robert schiller and roger ibbotson actually they got to meet with a they got to meet you i don't know i i graduated from asu they graduated from yale so we're like right even e yeah exactly hd's we just have masters type typing schiller won the nobel peace prize for economics but anyways they're world renowned you'll see robert schiller on cnbc all the time there's an index has name right yeah in fact the ebbets in is actually created an index on the new york shock exchange and you know both of them have been very good about predicting the economic downturn schiller you know predicted the last two and so they're just really great minds but what kind of sets them apart from a lot of economists is they actually are pioneering what they call behavioral finance and schiller described it as the reality of investing because a lot of people a lot of these columnists will analyze how he should invest and they can do it just in the study and they don't factor in the human emotion of who's actually doing the investing so there's studies that show that in the past twenty years the average investor only captured about fifty percent of the actual market gains that occurred over the past twenty years and the reason is is because the inhibits in and schiller will talk about this is that as humans we have a tendency to shift our strategies that we have a tendency to become emotionally about are investing and we sell at the wrong time we buy at the wrong time and they've studied that and so one of the things that ibbotson said he's he said fear and greed is what prevents us from doing what we should we know that we should have less risk but we don't want to miss out on the potential gains as a result most people don't do anything so why he says there is he says a lot of people as they get close to retirement they know that they should be shifting their risk so that they're becoming less and less exposed to the market but what happens is they get all wow man i just made fifteen percent last year and i made ten percent and my buddies telling me how he invested in these penny stocks he made this money in my guy at work said this and all of a sudden they go i'm not gonna take the money off the table right and then you have two thousand eight crash you one of those corrections and it's like oh my goodness what in the world that i do and then a lot of times it's the overreaction it's then you take it all become very safe after that then you miss out on the upside returns that cap and following that downturn and so you slid down you moved out and then you didn't get the upside and so it's about understanding your human being and actually figuring out how you're going to invest and stick to a strategy so that you're successful and show her along those lines he said you know there's not a perfectly rational human being we overemphasize the negative which creates fear and often prevents us from doing what we know we should and then went on to say people make better decisions with financial advisers and that has everything to do with you know a good financial advisers going to help you look at the stage of life that you're at and remind you of.
"robert schiller" Discussed on Rich Dad Radio Show
"Teachers educators but and it becomes a real problem too when you go into the business world and if you're boring today especially as an entrepreneur boring entrepreneur may have the greatest idea in the world and this is one of the themes that come back to time and again in all the books i write you can have a great idea if you cannot communicate it in articulate your idea to trigger that evangelism on the part of other people to get people excited about your idea it'll fall on deaf ears so you can have an idea without eloquence does is pretty many lists so how how does that let salmon new entrepreneur i've got this great idea i'm just starting out how do i where do i start with communication i want i want to i want to sell my idea i want people to invest in me the most important thing that's a by car minds book well that's good that's good advice because we feel look at the greatest teachers on earth there were storytellers and most and most academia's are not okay here here's you brought up something really interesting then i'll get to kim's question okay robbery you brought up something most echo academian are not storytellers and and frankly most to communist are not most storied most scientists are not robert schiller of the price schiller index the nobel prize winning economist he's actually been writing quite a bit about the fact and criticizing his own economics field because the wrong yeah they get it wrong more than they get it right because they don't understand narrative i call it storytelling he calls it narrative it's the same thing booms and busts stock market booms and bus financial cycles are all driven by human behavior and human behaviors driven by the narratives that we share and we tell ourselves so if you understand narrative it's a very very powerful tool well the the biggest problem with economists scientists and they're not scientists and the second thing about economists is if forget that humans humans irs national they do not behave in rational manner with with several things.
"robert schiller" Discussed on 77WABC Radio
"Ninety s and the housing meltdown that triggered the two thousand and eight financial crisis so he's he went to yell apparently he's predicted this before right what do you think about that bob well it sounds like he has a crystal ball right i mean he predicted to really big financial disasters and that that's pretty good track record but what did he say last year here's the problem bob i went back and looked at what robert schiller said for the last nine years and it turns out he's made the same prediction now for almost a decade would you like to hear what he said at twenty seventeen what did he say in two thousand seventeen he said the us stock market quote unquote today looks a lot like it did at the peak before all thirteen previous price collapses did the market collapse last year bob i can't remember now is one of the best years ever we we were up every month twelve months in a row so how'd you two thousand sixteen okay quote unquote yells robert schiller there was have to get yellen there no regulation can stop the next global financial crisis do we have a global financial crisis in two thousand sixteen i have let me check i'll get back to you on that one how about two thousand fifteen what happened then okay robert schiller unlike nineteen twenty nine when we had the big stock market crash this time everything stocks bonds and housing are overvalued the dallas about fifteen thousand so twenty four thousand looks a little different yeah yeah dead wrong at year but maybe twenty fourteen he got it right so twenty fourteen he said the united states stock market looks very expensive right now the cape ratio that's his valuation metric is hovering at unforeseen levels so it sounds like he says the same thing over and over again it's like a broken record in eventually he's right when there is a correction sadly enough i could go back to twenty twelve twenty eleven twenty ten in two thousand and nine all years when the market went up and he said the same thing so what are they gonna stop putting this guy on the air and what are they gonna stop reminding us that he predicted to of last corrections but then missed every other move chilean and that's the whole point of this segment ri we talked to every.
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The main us commodities regulator recently cold it's employees that they are allowed to invest than cryptocurrencies a decision that came just weeks after the agency the cftc started overseeing bitcoin futures but for any employees looking to invest at the agency nobel prizewinning economist robert schiller has some words of warning don't put your life savings there will be ron wrong from the fundamental player a little bit around with it is like a game and that's part of what drives financial markets for more on the story were joined by rob schmitz to bloomberg news financial regulation reporter in our bloomberg 991 studios in washington dc and rob is this kosher well it could be and it's difficult to tell in and part of what's interesting about this whole story is that the really hasn't there's not much regulation of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in washington right now so it's kind of a blank slate and agencies have to figure it out for themselves in the cftc which just allowed bitcoin futures to trade in december has been kind of in the vanguard of this and so they had to make an early call on whether their employees can invest in this oh rob i have so many questions for you the federal agencies are debating this very issue how to impose the rule wolves on this type of a currency that a lot of people myself included don't really understand it very well the baby kinda wanna get in on it and that's kind of the point isn't it this is a mystery but like he was describing in that sound bite it's kind of fun it is and i mean if you do it right true and and you know cftc employees watch over the futures markets today have some insight into this and government workers are just like everybody else in terms of in wanting to invest places and so the cftc said okay you can do it but there some some strict rules that dave imposed in one is they can't have any inside information nonpublic stuff that they may be have gotten through their work other investigating a case involving cryptocurrencies or maybe doing a rule on cryptocurrency so that's kind of.
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Main us commodities regulator recently told it's employees that they are allowed to invest in cryptocurrencies a decision that came just weeks after the agency the cftc started overseeing bitcoin futures but for any employees looking to invest at the agency nobel prizewinning economists robert schiller had some words of warning don't put your life savings here that would be wrong wrong from the fundamental a little bit around with it is like a game and that's part of what drives financial markets for more on the story were joined by rob schmitz to bloomberg news financial regulation reporter in our bloomberg 991 studios in washington dc and rob is this kosher well it could be and it's difficult to telling and part of what's interesting about this whole story is that the really hasn't there's not much regulation of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in washington right now so it's kind of a blank slate and agencies have to figure it out for themselves in the cftc which just allowed bitcoin futures to trade in december has been kind of in the vanguard of this and so they had to make an early call on whether their employees can invest in this oh rob i have so many questions for you the federal agencies are debating this very issue how to impose the rules on this type of a currency that a lot of people myself included don't really understand it very well the baby kinda wanna get in on it and that's kind of the point isn't it this is a a mystery but like he was describing in that sound bite it's kind of fun it is and i mean if you do it right true and and you know cftc employees watch over the futures markets today have some insight into this and government workers are just like everybody else in terms of in wanting to invest places and so the cftc said okay you can do it but there are some some strict rules that dave imposed in one is they can't have any inside information nonpublic stuff that they may be have gone through their work other in getting a case involving cryptocurrencies or may be doing a rule on cryptocurrency so that's kind the big prohibition the other thing that the cfcs told his workers is hey you know this is a hot area everybody's interested.
"robert schiller" Discussed on Motley Fool Answers
"But what he did was moe in hobart looked at data from the case schiller home price index to basically look at how residential real estate performed during the twenty bear markets since 1950 too and we found was there's only two examples of went housing prices also went down along with stocks in one of those was only a point four percent decline the other one was one that happened during the great recession and it was a duisi but on average home prices go up when stocks could down in fact the killer index actually goes up a little more during bear market the stocks than it does doing bull markets and stocks now so you might local what about that most recent example does that mean that things had sort of changed in the relationship between the stock market and the housing market in hobart actually asked robert schiller who's the cocreator of the schiller index killer index and he basically said no that was probably an anomaly and going forward this relationship between housing prices holding up during barema bear market than stocks it probably going to hold true another interesting thing that hobart pointed out to was that housing prices are pretty meaningfully positively correlated to inflation in other words owning houses and inflation hedge as well in his article he suggested the way to sort of factor this in your portfolio at least one way would it be by ets the focused on the construction industry which is kind of an interesting idea but i think really just owning a home in making it a gold paying it off before you retire is another way to get these same benefits by having it paid off or mostly paid off by the time retire.
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The word finance and how it is miss understood and miss apply to the idea of wanting to make money well okay i i teach finance cars here yeah and online by the way it's for free and of course uh but i emphasize that finance isn't really about making money in the sense that many people think it's about technology for allocating resources for incentivising people to do something for other people according to someone that someone else's desires uh and it the the um it has powerful implications risk management is is a powerful tool to improve human welfare having said that i'm wondering if you could then apply that attitude towards the prices that are paid for stocks and why you describe some markets as so pricey that really the way we measured them is not really accurate why don't you know uh take my car you don't need uh i think that uh finance lindt through a phase or a theoretical finance went through a phase uh or which was uh you might say a turning point was eugene 500 efficient market theory around nineteen seventy uh and then the random walk down wall street with now kale uh it is it was a model that uh with that too selfsatisfied uh and two mechanical and now there's been a behavioral finance revolution which is still going on everybody's equity folks get focused on the exuberance of robert schiller when you see highyield bonds be aa industrials to go back to my grandfather priced this narrow entitled full faith and credit ten years does that exp does that define for you a bond bubble that banzer price to perfection is maybe sir john templeton would mention it the bond market uh has had a peculiar tendency to task lag the inflation so there's a uh i think it's to seventy percent correlation between bond yields and the last 10 years of inflation but not much correlation with the next ten years inflation so the bond market is is.
"robert schiller" Discussed on WDRC
"Should all be applauding this hey honestly it's like the clouds are being lifted this was describe hooted thumb schiller the robert schiller described that his animal spirits years and years and years ago animal spirits are coming back now this is another thing that i believe to be quite necessary neither streamline the entire retirement account process is this too many dan vehicles and too much confusion i also do believe that we need to allow people to save and invest a lot more also allow for individuals not only use retirement accounts to purchase the usual stocks bonds and bonds but to also allow them to invest in themselves in buying or starting a new business amadiya investment advisors out there ever said something like that they wouldn't because then again it's it's going to hurt their paychex no this would be a great idea i also think this is important too for society as a whole we need also create an inc much of it in this tax package but it's something that we could work on moving forward on fast advantages for individuals were taking on the responsibility of caring for older relatives in their homes because this too takes are expensive burden off of society without a doubt reality is people is that you times or change and that's okay that's okay that's all right right finance appoint has changed he still had the same mindset get your financial plan done the right way now i wanna then in through the overall climate here in the country right now um economic optimism is it's tie rock at a list various different positive stories when it comes to jobs with certain demographics black unemployment is at a seventeen year low right now hispanic employment is never been this long and you factoring jobs that are more manufacturing job was some fifty thousand de manufacturers were supposed to be coming back to the country it's the election that we're heading couple miss them putting this together with tax reform there's a great opportunity four also the nation to.
"robert schiller" Discussed on KTTH 770AM
"Pay management fee you sitting cash it's a guarantee loss and eaten caches worse now than any time before right because they're printing a guys it's oone guaranteed loser in your portfolio stocks could continue to go up bonds may pay a little bit they're pretty bad to but at least they're paying something right but cash you can't afford to do it because inflation will be the problem going out in the future it's a matter of time in that caches kaelin in the whole reason you have the caches for security right gave there's other options out there that's what i'm trying to tell you and hopefully were providing with education i'm not an look i think these annuities fix index products in good boring as how i got into this i i must stockman dry love looking at it economics and macroeconomics and developing economies and stocks and things like that but when you live win the world were living in today if you show me an asset that's making six six natpercent that has no management fee in its insured against loss i'm sorry but that belongs in virtually everybody's portfolio especially if you're sitting on cash and the people who tell you it's not linked i'm sorry the just don't know what they're talking about they haven't done their homework you do your home call me i'll give you a homework research robert schiller research roger ibbotson gory tony robbins book listen would dory says these are guys have done their homework there's not a trick there's on a back door like a how we got another one we're gonna do we're going to trick them they're not gonna make any money in this product the people that are sitting there railing against those products don't know what they're talking about they just don't and like i said take it up with nobel prizewinner robert schiller founder of the cape index big believer in stocks it's just a it's.
"robert schiller" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"Most popular west portfolio insurance this is a computer algorithm there promised to protect you from big losses when stocks began to decline the algorithm would sell but slowly instead of just say oh my goodness the market's going down i'm going to sell everything it said wait a minute the markets only down a half a percent sell this much i'll now it's down a four percent sell this much so eat guide did your exit from the market in deliberate stages so that you felt protected in order for portfolio insurance to work there had to be people buying these stocks as the prices dropped but portfolio insurance was really popular particularly with big institutional investors like pension fund ends there were of course individual investors in the market a lot of them also joined the sell off in fact so many of us wanted to sell that we drove whatever contrary inns were in the market to the sidelines in sheer panic and there was nobody to buy why does this happen well consider this hype pathetic all scenario from robert schiller he's a nobel prize winning behavioral economist at yale university imagine that this is very unlikely a raccoon some animal ran into the room immediately we would our react it would be so fast and some people wouldn't even see the raccoon they would see other people reacting to it and they'd no immediately that something is happening the panic had lasting consequences on wall street a lot of brokerage houses folded remember those iconic ads for ef hutton you know the one where the two men are dining in a restaurant one leans over to his friend and says more voters have hut he says and then everyone goes silent they so want in on the advice well if hutton of the most prestigious names on wall street had to shut down after the crash that was just part of the.
"robert schiller" Discussed on Marketplace All-in-One
"The danny he mentioned his daniel khanam on the two thousand two nobel laureate and let's extend this nobel prize winners party by bringing in robert schiller the yale economist who's worked with the man of the hour dealer for a quartercentury now dr schiller good morning good morning so you're talking to summon last night before the nobel prize in economics was announced in they ask for your prediction would you say i would say dick fair there comes to mind first but i don't know that he's uniformly popular so i said i he's still is my prediction not uniformly popular because of his ideas right i think he's revolutionary and some people uh don't write give because he's like the boy pointing out the emperor's wearing no grows and some many cases these very direct in forceful and his uh intolerance of a bad economic research so for so more just coming to the work for the first time this is about applying for instance psychology to actually have a real humans make their choices i think do uh psychology has yielded many insights about human behavior we are admirers have that feel and sociology and political sorrow but economic has had a kind of tendency to ignore these other social sciences there's uh too many insights in psychology and other social sciences to really ignore them consistently his work in my work is both been involved with trying to bring together the social sciences and not just assume that we are these magical machines for making rational decisions at every point in our lives but that's how he might put it is that a quote from him magical machine economic doused used the assumption a rational behaviour.
"robert schiller" Discussed on Yahoo Finance Presents
"Welcome to the yahoo finance podcast thanks so much for listening and of course don't forget to subscribe on i tunes or wherever you get your podcasts who you don't miss one single episode today i'm here with nicole sinclair our markets reporter at yahoo finance and we are going to be talking about two of the most interesting famous smart mines in finance and economics they are robert schiller and jeremy siegel nicole got a chance to interview both of them and not just interview them separately but to gather in the same place nicole how did you get this to happen this was truly a once in a lifetime or once in a long time opportunity robert schiller and jeremy siegel happened to be in new york to attend a broadway show together they were here to see deer evan hamson with their wives and if notable because they are foes when it comes to their view on the market but they are really good friends they were excited to have lunch and see a broadway show together so had yuban trying to book them separately or together like at you'd they said were in new york cut it all convalle yes so i did e mala uh both of them separately to see if they could come in and samro are managing editor said wouldn't it be fun if we have them together and i thought i'd try and it just so happened that they had social plans already sell it worked out well were based right here in times square quite convenient to broadway shows uh and it worked out for them to have a little back and forth before they sat down for lunch were worthy seeing the madness the 'aina matinee they're both older gentlemen a gas yet and they are brazil heading back to e two new haven he's beast at yale and jeremy siegel back to pennsylvania his piece that you patten so it was an earlier evening though i think they had dinner plans after two so not a short day so up with people know both of these uh gentlemen uh robert schiller has won a nobel prize jeremy siegel a noted bull you see him on tv.