20 Burst results for "Robert Schiller"

"robert schiller" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

KTAR 92.3FM

03:15 min | 1 year ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

"Sentiment there's and reading charts. Understanding what they mean. Well, yeah, it's kind of psychology behind. Why what's going on? You know on DH? Why is it bouncing between levels like like this month? The indexes have simply bounced between two levels. People that understand charts have seen that and it's very familiar and that that's why this has been fabulous for some of the very you know the best trained day traders. Love. That's good, but for everybody else, they're scratching their heads, saying Why in the world is going on what's happening? And if people are reading charts, and I said this, I don't know what radio show it was. It was a couple weeks ago. Probably that we have a level at 30 for 20 on the S and P 500. That is kind of giving us some some problems. We've hit it now four times and haven't broken through it. And so it is kind of what we that's A part of our methodology is where you have an area where there's more sellers than there are buyers. And it has nothing to do with what the news is saying it has Everything to do with orders and where people want to sell something. Not now, to be fair. There are reasons behind. Behind that behind Why their cellars at that point, not something that we're going to have time to discuss today. But I'll tell you this, okay in terms of valuation in terms of value investors because we We teach both in the wealth sector and and in the income sector. We've talked a lot about the income sector in the wealth sector for a value trader. The last 20 years actually has been frustrating. You know what the world is going on? Why, and to give you an example of that, you know, Ah, Value trader will often look at something called the P E ratio. All right now in the S and P 500, There's something called the Schiller P ratio. This was a ratio that Robert Shiller developed in order to in order to Ah, to show when the market it might be over purchased from a value standpoint. Come And the median is the median P ratio for the S and P 500. Overtime is 15. We've spent six months out of the last 20 years below 15. That's it. Everything else has been above 15. And you know to Robert Schiller's, You know, in Robert Schiller's Um, well, his method all his his chart. Any time it hits above 30 bad things they're supposed to happen. Well, that worked out in 2000 won. On DH, You know, we took a 50 for seven or we took a 50% dip. It didn't quite hit 30 P ratio of 30 in 2008. We still took 57% tip. And here we are in 2020, and by the way, the valuations are above 30 and have been and of course we've seen, you know an inversion in the bond market and for value traders, these air all signals that bad things are going to happen. All bad things are happening, but the indexes aren't showing it..

Robert Schiller Robert Shiller
How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events

Money For the Rest of Us

04:56 min | 1 year ago

How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events

"I recently celebrated a birthday with a good day peaceful. What I didn't have was a birthday cake and we did not seeing the Happy Birthday Song Robert Schiller in his book Narrative Economics and which today's episode title comes from the Subtitle of his book wrote that the Happy Birthday Song. Maybe the best known song of all time he mentioned. It's not particularly admired for its beauty or grace. It grew unplanned and uncontrolled he writes. There is no history of a government edict requiring the song to be Sung or a marketing campaign promising lifelong popularity for those who sing it or have it sung to them. The song spread like an epidemic in the nineteen twenties and thirties fell back a little bit during World War. Two and then it began again Warner Chappell. Music had a copy rate from nineteen thirty five collected millions of dollars up until two thousand sixteen when it was determined. That happy birthday to you was very very similar to an eighteen. Ninety three song titled Good Morning To all sounded exactly the same and so they lost the trademark. The Happy Birthday Song went viral. Like an epidemic. We have all become more familiar. I think with the mathematics behind epidemics. One of the first theories was proposed in one thousand nine hundred eighty seven by William or guilty KEROUAC and Anderson Gray. Mckendrick KEROUAC was a Scottish biochemist Kendrick. A Scottish physician. It was as simple model. It was called the Sir model where they divided the population. The percentage of the population that is susceptible to a disease the percent of the population that is infectious and the percent of the population that is recovered and they add up to one hundred percent. According to their model an epidemic ends when the percentage of the population that recovers and is immune is increasing to such a level that leaves less people that are susceptible and those susceptible people are then less likely to be exposed to those that are infected. Now there are much more complex models. There's what's known as compartmental model called Se. I H F R or s this for susceptible e is exposed is infected. H is hospitalized. F is dead but not buried and our is recovered or buried a lot more complexity there in this episode we're going to look at how narratives stories impact financial decisions and they act very similarly to a disease virus in terms of how they spread and then fall back and the epidemic ends now that the global economy has been shut down for a month or more government officials have to decide. How are they going to restart the economy and as citizens we have to decide? How actively are we willing to participate in the economy in terms of going out in public again? There are several scenarios that very much depend on what percent of the population is susceptible versus having recovered. It's possible there are millions millions. That were ASEP dramatic and so we have heard immunity or perhaps not the economy could be opened up again to let the virus spread. There could be a second wave. And there's the risk of overwhelming the healthcare system so that there's a spike in death because a large percentage of the population is still susceptible or the economy could open up and deaths don't spike because the virus has been spreading for months and a large percentage of individuals are already immune that would mean that the overall mortality rate is much lower closer to that of the flu because so many people have had it and we know approximately how many people have died or and this is probably what's going to happen. We're going to open up. The economy gradually and see how things evolve. There's a great deal of uncertainty before we continue. Let me pause and share some words from one of this week sponsors policy genius. There's things that we look back on and think how could I be so wrong? The truth is we're always going to get things wrong. That's just life but there are also things we can get right on the first try like shopping for life

Mckendrick Kerouac Robert Schiller Narrative Economics Warner Chappell Kendrick FLU William Anderson Gray
"robert schiller" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM

WCBM 680 AM

01:38 min | 2 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM

"Robert Schiller is predicting that if President Donald Trump is reelected, the Donald Trump bump in the economy will continue, and postpone any economic recessions. Did you guys hear Bernie Sanders is going to give? To pay off all the student loan. Yeah. It, it, isn't it? Wall Street, isn't that illegal to bribe somebody to vote for you, but he doesn't understand when he says, you know, going for several transaction fees. Who do you think pays that? The investments, the cost will get transferred to the general public with the millennials will listen to him in believing, maybe. On today's say it solutions radio show where Sherri, how to declutter and simplify retirement cans, but let's go Donald Trump, because, over many years of working in saving it's easy to collect different 4._0._1._K's different IRA's different investments in assets. And when you take inventory, you finally realized that, while you got all this money, it's not diversified. You gotta scattered all over the place sometimes with many different custodial counts. I mean, we've seen them the five different brokerage firms having a bunch of different investments or mutual funds doesn't mean you have a plan means you got some money, but it implies that you really hoping things will work yet. But you don't have a plan to make sure things will work out. You know, listen just hoping things will work out doesn't mean they will trust me hope is not a place. Not a plan is a plan..

President Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Robert Schiller Sherri
"robert schiller" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio

Biz Talk Radio

03:25 min | 2 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio

"I've been helping Johnny dean out for a couple of hours here in the studio, John. What have we been working on? Well, I've been looking at interest rates again. I mentioned this yesterday. The thirty average thirty year mortgage rate is three point eight five mazing isn't as young Bo is three point eight nine and a fifteen years three point seven. What's the difference? Here's, here's the deal. We're going to get an interest rate cut. It's going to happen. I think Clayton came out and said something about that. This morning's a matter of fact, and of course, the markets tend to react, well. With an interest rate cut, but you kinda have to read between the lines on that one too. Don't you? Well, because it means that I it means the economy is slowing down. No inflation. They've been trying for years to get in place, and we're not having read article this morning about, you know how the ravages of inflation can really ruin your retirement. I'm saying man where's it been? I understand if you grew up in the air that I grew up in you. Remember, gas lines and inflation and all that. But in reality, we haven't seen it in a long time. We haven't seen it and they know how to create it they just haven't, and it's, it's a it's it can be a problem. You need a little bit, you need three percent. Otherwise, none of us make any money. None of us get salary increase. No pricing power is what we speaking of Robert stagnate rubber Schiller. Why aren't stock market booms predictable? I saw this. I don't know month or so ago and I've been holding on to it, and I reread it this morning. I said, you know, this guy Robert Schiller for all the ain't he pretty smart, dude. Why aren't they why are they not? They not predictable. He's the guy that came out as you would. Well, no. With these cyclically just Joyce. Yeah, that's, that's only in Brooklyn. The CA p p ten keepsake quickly Schiller. That's not to say his case Schiller, which is something Dame's of two guys. It's yeah. Case and Schiller. That's the real estate one. This is price earnings ratio. And either event we may get a chance to talk about that and a whole bunch more surprising facts about centenarians is I know you're going to be one. That's my goal. I guess a good life. I mean I don't wanna be well don't you? Well, sure. But what's it going to be like, when I'm ninety if I make it? I don't know some pretty healthy with my ninety four year old dad yesterday and outside of his memory guys kicking around pretty good. Well, see, I'm like forty years away from that aid. There you go. So I mean I'm sure at that point, they'll be able to keep us all alive. But what's the quality? So that's what I'm hoping my hope is to be around annoy around, but I start today with this, Mr. Johnny boy. The financial news media is detrimental to your returns, and I got thinking about this, and the reason that I selected it for today is because there are so many programs that are telling you, where to put your money how to invest, and they can somehow see the future, but folks newsflash, they can't sit back. Relax..

Robert Schiller Johnny dean Bo John Clayton Brooklyn Joyce ninety four year fifteen years three percent forty years thirty year
"robert schiller" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM

WCBM 680 AM

01:34 min | 2 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM

"Steve winwood singing that song, think was like fifteen years old. Davis group. Yeah. If President Donald Trump wins a second term, according to Nobel prize winning economist, Robert Schiller, he now believes he's predicting that if Donald Trump wins the election in twenty twenty that the economy will prolong the bull market that we've been in, in the past ten years. And now keep in mind that this guy, Robert Schiller was actually predicting a recession at the end of the last election period. So now he's saying, gee, Donald Trump's really, we got this Donald Trump bump, in our economy, the financial investing world can become so complex and so confusing and some much so most people aren't familiar with this become paralyzed and avoid making decisions. However, we believe the only cure for this is proper education. That's why today were sharing all about pension buyout options, and now it's time for one of. Our fan favorite parts of the show, our day say segment where we debunk common myths have truth. And sometimes bad advice that they so here's one for you. Rod, they say that you should take control of your pension money by taking a lump sum distribution. But are there trade off to consider? Oh, boy, you sure are, you know, the lump sum option will carry with it some investment risk, bore by the employees depending upon how the money's invested though..

Donald Trump Robert Schiller Steve winwood Davis Nobel prize Rod President fifteen years ten years
"robert schiller" Discussed on 790 KABC

790 KABC

05:09 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on 790 KABC

"Unless it's Tarzan, then they would want the show to swing through the vines, right? But on this show. Do we stop right there? No, we don't. We boldly go where no financial show has gone before. And therefore at about ten til we will have our estate tip of the week. And this one was actually I was talking to a client last week, and they were concerned about leaving an inheritance to their their children, one of whom is not very responsible with money. So they were asking me, you know, how do I protect against the inheritance being squandered? And I thought you know, what that is an awesome question to answer on the radio show. So at about ten till we'll talk about how to protect the inheritance that you leave your, greedy, unwashed undeserving airs from being squandered. Okay. So we'll have that for you at about ten till? So we have a lot of stuff to talk about. So I just to one quick thing. I want to share with you. This is spring break. And my youngest is a senior in college. And so I get to have her home for a week. And what's really nice, this is it selfish? But what's really nice is that her school spring break is after everybody else's so or before or something it's before so she's home and nobody else's. So we get to have her. Yeah. Because normally like over Christmas at all that they're all at home at the same time. We never see her. She's gone all the time. But right now, she's home every day. And I went and saw spider verse the Spiderman movie, it is awesome. If you're a Spiderman fan, you will love that movie. It's great anyway. Let's talk about the five reasons that you should be glad you are out of the market. Okay. And so I could literally just read this article to you. It's so well written and I'm actually jealous. I wish I had written it because I mean person person, at forwarded it to me said Ken, did you write this? And he's just using your your words. So it starts off with kicking yourself for missing the recent rally. Here are five reasons that you shouldn't you says to hear the Wall Street say everything is rosy again and the cautious naysayers are looking like a bunch of chicken Littles suckers and sore losers yet again, yes, the stock market is off to the best start of the year and more than three decades. And yes, though, sitting on the sidelines in too much cash at mystic rally, and he says as money manager, Josh Brown CEO of writ holes, something reminded investors. Again this week. If you missed the handful of best days on the stock market, you miss out. On a huge chunk of long-term returns. And I'm going to talk about that one later on in the show as I mentioned that one is misleading statistic. And I resent people who say that. So continuing he says is that it if you're under invested in stocks. Should you be kicking yourself not so fast? Sure, hindsight is twenty twenty. But if you've been too cautious of late, you're not alone. And here are five reasons why you're not dumb, and you may be proven right in the long run. And what's interesting about this is he's assuming there are people who are out of the market like we are. So that's pretty cool. There are other people who agree with us who have done the same. So we're not alone in this. Although, you know, sometimes what is it Groucho one said that any club. That'll have you as a member? I don't want to be a member of so many people are getting out of the market is anytime, I am I started getting worried because that's usually the consensus is wrong. But anyway, let's go over. We're not going to get to all of them in this segment. I'm going to continue in the second segment. So don't be worried about that. So number one, he says. You haven't really missed that much. Sure, if you'd bought and hell you'd be sitting in stocks during the boom since January first, but you'd also been sitting in stocks when they tanked and you have to remember they tanked first before they rose. So the Dow has risen more than two thousand points this year, but it fell three thousand points last quarter. Okay. So even after the rally the SNP is still down five percent from its peak last year. So yes, it's rallied. But it's still way down from where it was at the peak. So don't feel so bad about that. Okay. Now, he also says that the world all country you index is still twelve percent down from its peak in two thousand eighteen and that's according to fact, set so that's number one. I'm going to get to the other four in the next segment, but I want to tell you that if you're over fifty if you are retired or retiring soon, then you may want to consider going to one of our seminars because right now, we believe that the risk that you face on the Dow. Downside is way greater than the potential on the upside of this market, and I'm going to go into some statistics in the next segment about, you know, Robert Schiller who is one of the most respected economists and his evaluation of PE ratio is right now, he says the market is fifty percent overvalued. It would need to drop fifty percent just to get normally valued. And so right now, we believe the downside risk is very high. So if I'm you what I would want to do is at least investigate at least educate myself, at least understand why people are saying, this smart people are saying this, and maybe I should pay attention. Okay. So here's what you do go to.

Spiderman Robert Schiller Josh Brown Ken CEO Groucho fifty percent twelve percent three decades five percent
"robert schiller" Discussed on KTRH

KTRH

06:11 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on KTRH

"Unless it's Tarzan, then they would want the show to swing through the vines, right? But on this show. Do we stop right there? No, we don't. We boldly go where no financial show has gone before. And therefore at about ten til we will have our estate tip of the week. And this one was actually I was talking to a client last week, and they were concerned about leaving an inheritance to their their children, one of whom is not very responsible with money. So they were asking me, you know, how do I protect against the inheritance being squandered? And I thought you know, what that is an awesome question to answer on the radio show. So at about ten till we'll talk about how to protect the inheritance that you leave your, greedy, unwashed undeserving airs from being squandered. Okay. So we'll have that for you at about ten till? So we have a lot of stuff to talk about. So I just wanna one one quick thing. I want to share with you. This is spring break. And my youngest is a senior in college. And so I get to have her home for a week. And what's really nice this is selfish? But what's really nice is that her school spring break after everybody else's so or before or something it's before so she's home and nobody else's. So we get to have her. Yeah. Because normally like over Christmas at all that they're all at home at the same time. We never see her. She's gone all the time. The right now, she's home every day. And I went and saw spider verse the Spiderman movie, it is awesome. If you're a Spiderman fan, you will love that movie. It's great. Anyway, let's talk about the five reasons that you should be glad you are out of the market. Okay. And so I could literally just read this article to you. It's so well written and I'm actually jealous. I wish I had written it because I mean, the person the person that forwarded to me said Ken, did you write this? And he's just using your your words. So it starts off with kicking yourself for missing the recent rally here are five reasons that you shouldn't he says to hear the Wall Street say it everything is rosy again and the cautious naysayers are looking like a bunch of chicken Littles suckers and sore losers yet again, yes, the stock market is off to the best start of the year and more than three decades. And yes those. On the sidelines in too much cash of missed a quick rally, and he says as money manager, Josh Brown CEO of writ holes, something reminded investors. Again this week if you missed the handful of best days on the stock market, you miss out on a huge chunk of long-term returns. And I'm gonna talk about that one later on the show as I mentioned that one is misleading statistic. And I resent people who say that. So continuing he says is that it if you're under invested in stocks. Should you be kicking yourself not so fast? Sure, hindsight is twenty twenty. But if you've been too cautious of late, you're not alone. And here are five reasons why you're not dumb, and you may be proven right in the long run. And what's interesting about this is he's assuming there are people who are out of the market like we are. So that's pretty cool. There are other people who agree with us who have done the same. So we're not alone in this. Although, you know, sometimes what is it Groucho once said that any club that'll have me as a member. I don't wanna be. Member of so to many people are getting out of the market is Saint time. I am I started getting worried because that's usually the consensus is wrong. But anyway, let's go over. We're not going to get to all of them in this segment. I'm going to continue in the second segment. So don't be worried about that. So number one, he says, you haven't really missed that much. Sure if you'd bought and held you'd be sitting in stocks during the boom since January first, but you'd also been sitting in stocks when they tanked and you have to remember they tanked first before they rose. So the Dow has risen more than two thousand points this year, but it fell three thousand points last quarter. Okay. So even after the rally the SNP is still down five percent from its peak last year. So yes, it's rallied. But it's still way down from where it was at the peak. So don't feel so bad about that. Okay. Now, he also says that the world all country you index is still twelve percent down from its peak in two thousand eighteen and that's according to fact, set. So that's number one. I'm going to get to the other four in the next segment, but I want to tell you that if you are over fifty if you are retired or retiring soon, then you may want to consider going to one of our seminars because right now, we believe that the risk that you face on the downside is way greater than the potential on the upside of this market, and I'm going to go into some statistics in the next segment about Robert Schiller, who is one of the most respected economists and his evaluation of PE ratio is right now he says the market is fifty percent over-valued it would need to drop fifty percent just to get normally valued. And so right now, we believe the downside risk is very high. So if I'm you what I would want to do is at least investigate at least educate myself, at least understand why people are saying, this smart people are saying this, and maybe I should pay attention. Okay. So here's what you do you go to our website. It's money matters dot net. Moneymatters dot net is our website. And you can go to one of our seminars you can find a seminar near you at the seminar. We don't talk about are beholden. Protect strategy. We also talk about when should you take your social security benefits when you're sixty to sixty six when you're seventy we're gonna talk about the fact that the IRS. Out. Yeah. Those guys they want tax eighty five percent of your social security benefits. We're gonna show you how to beat that. If it's an all possible. We want to talk about how to decide if you have enough money to retire on where do you get your income from how you do your income taxes? We have a lot of information that I think if you're over fifty if you are retired or retiring soon, you will get benefit from so go to our website moneymatters dot net and sign up for seminar near you. Okay. Moneymatters dot net. All right. We're gonna take a break. And when we come back. We'll have the other four reasons why you should be glad you are out of the market. So stay tuned. This is money matters. And I am Ken moraif celebrating fifteen years of art and community at camp arena stage.

Ken moraif Spiderman Josh Brown Groucho CEO camp arena Robert Schiller IRS fifty percent eighty five percent twelve percent fifteen years three decades five percent
"robert schiller" Discussed on KFI AM 640

KFI AM 640

06:09 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on KFI AM 640

"Unless it's Tarzan, then they would want the show to swing through the vines, right? But on this show. Do we stop right there? No, we don't. We boldly go where no financial show has gone before. And therefore at about ten til we will have our estate tip of the week. And this one was actually I was talking to a client last week, and they were concerned about leaving an inheritance to their their children, one of whom is not very responsible with money. So they were asking, you know, how do I protect against the inheritance being squandered? And I thought you know, what that is an awesome question to answer on the radio show. So at about ten till we'll talk about how to protect the inheritance that you leave your, greedy, unwashed undeserving airs from being squandered. Okay. So we'll have that for you at about ten till? So we have a lot of stuff to talk about. So I just want to one one quick thing. I want to share with you. This is spring break. And my youngest is a senior in college. And so I get to have her home for a week. And what's really nice this is selfish? But what's really nice is at her school spring break is after everybody else's so or before or something it's before so she's home and nobody else's. So we get to have her. Yeah. Because normally like over Christmas at all that they're all at home at the same time. But we never see her. She's gone all the time. But right now, she's home every day. And I went and saw spider burst. The that Spiderman movie, it is awesome. If you're a Spiderman fan, you will love that movie. It's great anyway. Let's talk about the five reasons that you should be glad you are out of the market. Okay. And so. And I could literally just read this article to you. It's so well written and I'm actually jealous. I wish I had written it because I mean, the person the person that forwarded to me said Ken, did you write this? And he's just using your your words. So it starts off with kicking yourself for missing the recent rally here are five reasons that you shouldn't he says to hear the Wall Street say it everything is rosy again and the cautious naysayers are looking like a bunch of chicken Littles suckers and sore losers yet again, yes, the stock market is off to the best start of the year and more than three decades. And yes, those sitting on the sidelines in too much cash have missed a quick rally, and he says as money manager, Josh Brown CEO of writ holes, something reminded investors. Again this week if you missed the handful of best days on the stock market, you miss out on a huge chunk of long-term returns. And I'm gonna talk about that one later on in the show as I mentioned that one is misleading statistic. And I resent people who. Say that. So continuing he says is that it if you're under invested in stocks. Should you be kicking yourself not so fast? Sure, hindsight is twenty twenty. But if you've been too cautious of late, you're not alone. And here are five reasons why you're not dumb, and you may be proven right in the long run. And what's interesting about this is he's assuming there are people who are out of the market like we are. So that's pretty cool. There are other people who agree with us who have done the same. So we're not alone in this. Although, you know, sometimes what is it Groucho one said that any club that will have is a member. I don't want to be a member of. So to many people are getting out of the market is Santosh. I am I started getting worried because that's usually the consensus is wrong. But anyway, let's go over. We're not gonna get to all of them in this segment. I'm going to continue in the second segment. So don't be worried about that. So number one, he says, you haven't really missed that much. Sure, if you'd bought in hell, you'd be sitting in stocks during the boom since January first, but you'd also. Been sitting in stocks when they tanked and you have to remember they tanked first before they rose. So the Dow has risen more than two thousand points this year, but it fell three thousand points last quarter. Okay. So even after the rally the SNP is still down five percent from its peak last year. So yes, it's rallied. But it's still way down from where it was at the peak. So don't feel so bad about that. Okay. Now, he also says that the world all country index is still twelve percent down from its peak in two thousand eighteen and that's according to facts that. So that's number one. I'm going to get to the other four in the next segment, but I want to tell you that if you're over fifty if you are retired or retiring soon, then you may want to consider going to one of our seminars because right now, we believe that the risk that you face on the downside is way greater than the potential on the upside of this market, and I'm going to go into some statistics in the next segment about. Robert Schiller who is one of the most respected economists and his evaluation of PE ratio is right now, he says the market is fifty percent overvalued. It would need to drop fifty percent just to get normally valued. And so right now, we believe the downside risk is very high. So if I'm you what I would want to do is at least investigate at least educate myself. At least understand why people are saying this smart people are saying this, and maybe I should pay attention. Okay. So here's what you do you go to our website. It's money matters dot net. Moneymatters dot net is our website. And you can go to one of our seminars you can find a seminar near you at the seminar. We don't talk about are beholden. Protect strategy. We also talk about when should you take your social security benefits when you're sixty to sixty six when you're seventy we're gonna talk about the fact that the IRS. Out. Yeah. Those guys they want tax eighty five percent of your social security benefits. We're gonna show you how to beat that. If it's an all possible. We want to talk about how to decide if you have enough money to retire on where do you get your income from how do you use your income taxes? We have a lot of information that I think if you're over fifty if you're retired or retiring soon, you will get benefit from so go to our website moneymatters dot net and sign up for seminar near you. Okay. Moneymatters dot net. All right. We're gonna take a break. And when we come back. We'll have the other four reasons why you should be glad you are out of the market. So stay tuned. This is money matters with Ken moraif on KFI AM, six forty four. Oh, one K. Is there anything.

Ken moraif Spiderman KFI Josh Brown Groucho CEO Robert Schiller IRS fifty percent eighty five percent twelve percent three decades five percent one K
"robert schiller" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

KTAR 92.3FM

06:14 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

"Unless it's Tarzan, then they would want the show to swing through the vines, right? But on this show. Do we stop right there? No, we don't. We boldly go where no financial show has gone before. And therefore at about ten til we will have our estate tip of the week. And this one was actually I was talking to a client last week, and they were concerned about leaving an inheritance to their their children, one of whom is not very responsible with money. So they were asking how do I protect against the inheritance being squandered? And I thought you know, what that is an awesome question to answer on the radio show. So at about ten till we'll talk about how to protect the inheritance that you leave your, greedy, unwashed undeserving airs from being squandered. Okay. So we'll have that for you at about ten till? So we have a lot of stuff to talk about. So I just want to one one quick thing. I want to share with you. This is spring break. And my youngest is a senior in college. And so I get to have her home for a week, and what's really nice this selfish. But what's really nice is at her school spring break is after everybody else's so or before or something it's before so she's home and nobody else's. So we get to have her. Yeah. Because normally like over Christmas at all that they're all at home at the same time. But we never see her. She's gone all the time. But right now, she's home every day. And I went and saw spider verse the Spiderman movie, it is awesome. If you're a Spiderman fan, you will love that movie. It's great anyway. Let's talk about the five reasons that you should be glad you are out of the market. Okay. And so I could literally just read this article to you. It's so well written and I'm actually jealous. I wish I had written it because I mean, the person person forwarded it to me said Ken, did you write this? And he's just using your your words. So it starts off with kicking yourself for missing the recent rally. Here are five reasons that you shouldn't he says to hear the Wall Street say everything is rosy again and the cautious naysayers are looking like a bunch of chicken Littles suckers and sore losers yet again, yes, the stock market is off to the best start of the year and more than three decades. And yes, those sitting on the sidelines in too much cash missed a quick rally, and he says as money manager, Josh Brown CEO of writ holes, something reminded investors. Again this week. If you missed the handful of best days on the stock market, you miss out. And a huge chunk of long-term returns. And I'm gonna talk about that one later on in the show as I mentioned that one is misleading statistic. And I resent people who say that. So continuing he says is that it if you're under invested in stocks. Should you be kicking yourself not so fast? Sure, hindsight is twenty twenty. But if you've been too cautious of late, you're not alone. And here are five reasons why you're not dumb, and you may be proven right in the long run. And what's interesting about this is he's assuming there are people who are out of the market like we are. So that's pretty cool. There are other people who agree with us who have done the same. So we're not alone in this. Although, you know, sometimes what is it Groucho one said that any club. That'll have you as a member? I don't want to be a member of. So to many people are getting out of the market is anytime, I am I started getting worried because that's usually the consensus is wrong. But anyway, let's go over. We're not gonna get to all of them in this segment. I'm gonna continue in the second segment. So don't be worried about that. So number one, he says you. Haven't really missed that much. Sure if you'd bought and held you'd be sitting stocks during the boom since January first, but you'd also been sitting in stocks when they tanked and you have to remember they tanked first before they rose. So the Dow has risen more than two thousand points this year, but it fell three thousand points last quarter. Okay. So even after the rally the SNP is still down five percent from its peak last year. So yes, it's rallied. But it's still way down from where it was at the peak. So don't feel so bad about that. Okay. Now, he also says that the world all country you index is still twelve percent down from its peak in two thousand eighteen and that's according to fact, set so that's number one. I'm going to get to the other four in the next segment, but I want to tell you that if you're over fifty if you are retired or retiring soon, then you may want to consider going to one of our seminars because right now, we believe that the risk that you face on the down. Side is way greater than the potential on the upside of this market, and I'm going to go into some statistics in the next segment about Robert Schiller, who is one of the most respected economists and his evaluation of PE ratio is right now, he says the market is fifty percent overvalued. It would need to drop fifty percent just to get normally valued. And so right now, we believe the downside risk is very high. So if I'm you what I would want to do is at least investigate at least educate myself, at least understand why people are saying this Mark people are saying this, and maybe I should pay attention. Okay. So here's what you do you go to our website. It's money matters dot net. Moneymatters dot net is our website. And you can go to one of our seminars you can find a seminar near you at the seminar. We don't talk about are beholden. Protect strategy. We also talk about when should you take your social security benefits when you're sixty to sixty six when you're seventy we're gonna talk about the fact that the IRS. Out. Yeah. Those guys they want tax eighty five percent of your social security benefits. We didn't show you how to beat that. If it's an all possible. We want to talk about how to decide if you have enough money to retire on where do you get your income from how do you reduce your income taxes? We have a lot of information that I think if you're over fifty if you are retired or retiring soon, you will get benefit from so go to our website money matters dot net and sign up for seminar near you. Okay. Moneymatters dot net. All right. We're going to take a break. And when we come back. We'll have the other four reasons why you should be glad you are out of the market. So stay tuned. This is money matters. And I am Ken moraif. If you're retired or retiring soon, you may be asking yourself do I have enough money to retire? How can I maximize my retirement income? Should I roll over my 4._0._1._K? Is there.

Ken moraif Spiderman Josh Brown Groucho CEO Robert Schiller IRS fifty percent eighty five percent twelve percent three decades five percent
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:46 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And expectedly fell in December posting the worst drop in nine years in a sign of slower economic momentum at year end amid financial market turmoil and the government shutdown for more on this. We bring in Kuttra Kacha, Jimmy Dmitry, Eva and catchy. It's times. Like this. You start hearing. Whispers of the our word too soon. Yes. Absolutely. This is something we're we're hearing again today, as we call communists about these really scary numbers. Really? I mean to be honest. No, economists had expected this kind of a dip in retail sales for December. In fact, it was so bad that they even started questioning how much we should rely on these data when we have other data pointing to a pretty steady economy and these kind of came out of nowhere. But it is as you said one of the signals that we look for one of them as a consumer spending consumer sentiment, and when we talk about a recession and the potential for a recession, and you're hearing a lot more about this our word lately because whether it's the poll the Bloomberg poll that showed that recession expectations are two six year high. There's also people like, Paul Krugman, and Robert Schiller who are talking about the. The risks of a recession when we could potentially see one and see that contraction coming so far it's kind of late two thousand nineteen twenty twenty phenomenon. But this is one of the things that makes you take a step back and think okay, where where are we right now in the economy? What's your reaction to any c- director, Larry cudlow, telling reporters that this was likely a glitch Ghezzi? Yeah. Glitzy and the reason that he's saying that as well as a lot of other economists, he's definitely not alone in saying that it's a glitch or some aberration is because all the other indicators were seeing point to a strong consumer. So we had consumer sentiment for the month, which was pretty high. We had a lot of the job and wage numbers. Like, we just heard about the unemployment rather the jobless claims numbers that also came out today. And then we also had the monthly jobs report, which pointed to super solid payroll gains and continued wage gains. So in that kind of environment, you think okay, consumer strong consumers confident despite all these headwinds of the government shutdown and the trade war, they're still on solid footing. So where did this report come from, especially when we had private data from Redbook showing that it was the biggest holiday going back several years for for retail sales. So there is some doubt being thrown on this as well, as I mentioned, the seasonal factors and also the shutdown could have delayed something's this. This really did just come out of left field. It did. I mean aside from the fact that new economists were expecting it. We weren't really looking for this kind of a low reading either. So when you look through the data where did the drops come in? And it was all discretionary spending. Right. So we had gains in things like autos and building materials. These are things that are big things that people have to be really confident in order to buy and especially the building materials, you would think. Okay, housing sales housing starts you need a mortgage need a certain amount of money for this kind of a large purchase. So there is sort of a bit of a silver lining there. But that's really at everything else, you know, clothing going out groceries like it all across the categories fell for for the month. And so what's ahead? Does this number possibly get revised? Yes. So the other thing it's interesting you mentioned revisions because the prior month was also revised down and going forward. We're talking to analysts who are saying we expect these numbers to bounce back up. They're expecting for these numbers to be revised. And they're also expecting some sort of a note on why we had this kind of this kind of a dip the other risks though. I mean, there are still risks on the horizon, we're talking about potentially potentially another government shutdown. If things don't get worked out. We also are seeing some stories on the terminal today about tax refunds being a than expected. So if you have a lower than expected tax refund all that boost in spending you're making throughout the year. And that we saw in October November might not be might not be playing out kind of going forward, and broader sort of big picture. Economy is is is still solid footing. But we are expecting that to tick down across categories because remember we talked about the fiscal stimulus all the spending that provided last year that's not going to be continuing into into twenty nineteen. So this this definitely is is a red flag and something for the fed to watch out for when they're thinking about raising rates, or maybe even cutting some people expect so this is definitely something that they have to keep in mind in future conversations as well. So if this really is a recession indicator, what should be what should we be watching for to confirm this, right? So this is one of many so consumer spending a huge retail sales are huge they make up the majority of the economy. But then there's also things like the yield curve business sentiment manufacturing surveys and overall global growth because the US isn't an island were largest economy. But there's other countries out there. And so far what we're seeing on those indicators are not necessarily conclusive we had the yield curve earlier shows sort of. Showing us that there was three the probability of recession rose, but that's happened before without a recession. We also had business sentiment. That's been kind of up and down, especially small businesses are at least optimistic, but you know, that could be a one month phenomenon as well. We haven't seen we've seen sort of a salary outlook. But again, we've we've been here before and we're still historically at high levels and then manufacturing surveys, although they took a dip again, they're still historically pretty high. So if we do continue to see slumps across all of these then we'll start talking about a recession because like bigger expectations for a recession. I should say because that's business investment and consumer investment. So those two things together following in unison for a longer period of time is not good news. Our thanks to cut you Dmitri. Eva, Bloomberg news economy reporter. And of course, these numbers we will.

Eva Kuttra Kacha Bloomberg Paul Krugman Jimmy Dmitry fed US Redbook Dmitri Larry cudlow director Bloomberg news Robert Schiller reporter two six year nine years one month
"robert schiller" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast

Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast

02:54 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast

"To invest Warren buffet style based on a conversation going on here between my daughter, and I might lovely lovely daughter. Who thinks I'm full of it. Sometimes. Not really true anybody. That's listened to these podcasts. No. I just need a little clarification. That's awesome little clarification. And and we're getting there. I think it's it's been a really really interesting couple years here. And we have a lot of podcasts. If you guys want to review them if you're just new to this. They're out there, and they're really good to work through. There's a lot of investing education there in the school of investing founded, essentially by Ben Graham, Warren buffet, and Charlie Munger and added to you know, to great degree actually by Charlie Munger, who is the one who encouraged Warren to be looking for wonderful businesses and buy them on sale. And that's really the essence of investing here that we're trying to to go through and learn and study and the real world the try to find great companies that are on sale and man alive. Are we have in market that is wild market the market? Dropped ten to one for ten. Fifteen percent dependent which market index you'll get and is working its way back up, and we've got the Trump effect going and some people say it's real and some people say it's just an illusion. It's gonna crumble and we're in our tenth year of of no recession, and that's the longest in American history since they've been keeping track of this. And we are at a Schiller P E, which we've talked about a number of times that still way up there and by way up there. I mean in the last one hundred forty years, it's only been where it is now three other times and each case so long now add has but in in all these previous cases that we entered into a depression or recession and giant stock market drops in it just hasn't happened yet. Also when you invest in a broad market mutual fund, which is what everybody tells you to do, of course in your 4._0._1._K's by mutual funds and indexes. The Schiller P E done by Robert Schiller, Yale suggest rather strongly that if you do that in this market, you'll have a twenty year return substantially less than five percent per year. And that one more time you mean, like if you invest today right now based on Schiller anytime, the Schiller is above about twenty four twenty nine thirty right now anytime in the last one hundred forty years that you did that in the big that first year you had a twenty year rate of return by investing in the index s and p five hundred of below five percent. And some of those returns were negative or zero remaining was that gigantic dang..

Robert Schiller Warren buffet Schiller P E Charlie Munger Warren Yale Ben Graham one hundred forty years five percent twenty year Fifteen percent
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:27 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg best. I'm Jim Bo, and I'm Ed Baxter. Stocks got off to their worst new year. In years, and then came roaring back on Friday after powerful jobs numbers and comments from fed chairman Jay Powell, saying he's listening carefully to the markets. So Jim Bloomberg's David Westin at Alix steel spoke with Robert Schiller Nobel prize winning economist and economics professor at Yale. What did you make of what Jay Powell said is it about face more or less about the extent to which the fed would listen to the markets? I think I'll is among the most carefully chosen words that I know very reasonable, man. And the idea that would swing markets is a sign of over excitement of some sort. He just said the most eminently reasonable thing that we are going to wait and see will adjust the reason the Justice they may where small and in line with expectations. There's nothing there. I think it was driving the market is a long-term narratives that is not the capsulated by anything that Powell has said, but professor Schiller was one part of what he said which was differ, forty just set a month before and that had to do with the so-called autopilot on the rolling off of the balance sheet as we're the size of the money supply quitting. The marketplace. Wasn't that a change when he said, you know, what we will take a look at that as well. Didn't sound like we're on autopilot anymore. Getting. I think that going back to Janet Yellen. And there was always this reasonable statement that we will adjust as things change. So wording is not my department. But I think that there is a general sense of crisis developing and that is what's on people's nine inch naked them. Remember things like the financial crisis almost ten years ago. Right. So that is definitely a severe backlash. I mean, you definitely had PTSD right? If you were trading in two thousand eight so with that do are we going to expect more volatility? More would be action. Well, that set us up for this year, if the market's responding so sensibly, and so mostly I two very benign statement from the Dow. We're talking psychology here now, and this is something that economists have difficulty forecasts. We're not very good at forecasting the market. We can forecast volatility volatility has been much higher. We were surprised just a couple of years ago. That volatility was so low. And now it's high again. And so what what do we do? What can we forecast but volatility, and I think that the the past crises we had two big market drops in the twentieth century one at the beginning of the two thousand and one after the financial crisis. Those are memories that resounding in people's minds. Right now, we tend to think of the last crisis and wonder if it will repeat itself. That doesn't mean I can predict any such it depends on feedback among millions of people looking at these stories and looking judging each other's reactions, but professor Schiller when you go back to those two earlier crises. There were underlying reasons there were if not bubbles something that was pretty close to a bubble in both instances once in the tech area and the other in housing, do you see those sorts of situations in the economy right now. Well, we've seen big increases in housing prices. And in stock prices are Esotique Keisha. Schiller index has shown one of the biggest booms in history. In fact, I recently ruined one of my editor op EDS, it's the third largest housing, boom. Since twenty twelve is the third largest housing boom since eighteen ninety. Well, there's some ambiguity about exactly that. But that's more or less a correct statement. And and the stock market boom since two thousand nine has been also quite dramatic. This sets us up for an atmosphere that wonders if this is substantially speculative, and that kind of wondering in general is generating all this market turmoil right now that was Nobel prize winning economist and economics professor at.

professor Schiller Jay Powell fed professor Robert Schiller Nobel Bloomberg Jim Bloomberg Ed Baxter Jim Bo Schiller Nobel prize Janet Yellen Yale David Westin chairman editor Esotique Keisha
"robert schiller" Discussed on FT Alphachat

FT Alphachat

02:26 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on FT Alphachat

"I'm Brendan Greeley and the US editor for FTE alphaville this chat. It's a project for the financial times and the road center for international economics and finance at Brown University. We were in Atlanta for the meeting at the American economic association this weekend, we found Robert Schiller. We dragged him over the podcast table. There are a lot of reasons for you to know who Robert Schiller is he won the Nobel prize in two thousand thirteen and yes, I know the price economics is not an actual Nobel prize. Don't ask me on this one. Robert Schiller won the prize for showing that stock prices move more than corporate dividends. That is stocks are not necessarily worth what companies pay you to hold them. Stock markets are not completely efficient more recently. Robert chillers been thinking in writing about narrative two years ago at this conference. He gave a speech he argued that markets are beholden to stories don't necessarily have any basis in data narratives, economists, look down on narratives as silly Schiller said that if you want to understand markets, you have to understand stories they start and how they spread I think that in the future. We'll have more of a science to understand these things than we do. Now. Because the economics profession is not in the habit of looking at narratives, I asked him about the last two months in stock markets at about the narrative that was driving those declines. The talk has been for most of a decade when will the fed raise interest rates again, they started raising interest rates in twenty fifteen. They've been talking about it for years. Suddenly the markets are reacting as if those a crisis of interest rate increases, this doesn't look rational. But what it does look to me and to many others is as the result of some new talk. It's talked up. It's finally come that the interest rates are finally having an effect. But why are they finally having an effect? It's because of the talk so it's kind of circular it's a feedback. It's the result of people reacting to other people's talk and not particularly Jerome Powell's talk, which is so mild and unexciting that he's doing that as chairman so as not to Royal the markets he staying on a path which was the now. Bounced before and yet now, it seems like news this is because of the contagion of narrative there contagious now as part of a feedback from the stock market initial stock market declines and they continue to build as an epidemic..

Robert Schiller Nobel prize Brendan Greeley Brown University US American economic association Atlanta Jerome Powell editor chairman two months two years
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:27 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg best JIMBO cell, and I'm Ed Baxter. Stocks got off to their worst new year. Start in years, and then came roaring back on Friday after powerful jobs numbers and comments from fed chairman Jay Powell, saying he's listening carefully to the markets. So Jim Bloomberg's David Westin at Alix steel spoke with Robert Schiller Nobel prize winning columnist and economics professor at Yale. What did you make of what Jay Powell said was it about face more or less about the extent to which the fed would listen to the markets? I think. Yes. L is among the most carefully chosen words. I is that I know very reasonable, man. And the idea that that would swing markets is a sign of over excitement of some sort. He said the most eminently reasonable thing that we are going to wait and see will adjust the reason the Justice they've made where small and in line with expectations. There's nothing there. I think it was driving the market in lar- long-term narrative that is not the capsulated by anything that Powell has said, but professor Schiller was there. One part of what he said, which was differ, forty just said a month before and that had to do with the so-called autopilot on the rolling off of the balance sheet as we're the size of the money supply liquidity. The marketplace wasn't that a change when he said, you know, what we will take a look at that as well. Didn't sound like we're on autopilot anymore. Getting sundays. I think that going back to Janet. Yeah. And there was always reasonable statement that we will adjust as things change. So wording is not my department. But I think that there is a general sense of crisis developing and that is what's on people's nine naked remember things like the financial crisis almost ten years ago. Right. So that is definitely a severe backlash. I mean, you definitely had PTSD right? If you were trading in two thousand eight so with that do are we going to expect more volatility more whippy action? Well, that set us up for this year, if the market's responding so sensibly motionlessly, very benign statement from the Dow. We're talking college. And this is something that economists have difficulty forecast, we're now very good, and you must know forecasting the market. We can forecast volatility volatility has been much higher just a couple of years ago. That volatility was so low. And now it's high again. And so what what do we do? What can we forecast but volatility, and I think that the the past crises we had two big market drops in the twentieth century one at the beginning of the two thousand and one after the financial crisis. Those are memories that are rebounding in people's minds right now, we tend to think of the last crisis and wonder if it will repeat itself. That doesn't mean that I can predict any such it depends on feedback. Nearly liens of people looking at these stories and listening gudgeon each other's reactions. But professor Schiller when you go back to those two earlier crises there were underlying reasons there were if not bubbles something that was pretty close to a bubble in both instances once in the tech area and the other in housing, do you see those sorts of situations in the economy right now. Well, we've seen big increases in housing prices. And in stock prices are. S logic. Case Schiller index has shown one of the biggest booms in history. In fact, I recently ruined one of my editor op, Ed it's the third largest housing, boom. Since twenty twelve is the third largest housing boom since eighteen ninety. Well, there's some ambiguity about exactly that. But that's more or less, correct statement. And and the stock market boom since two thousand nine has been also quite dramatic this up for an atmosphere that wonders if substantially speculative and that kind of wondering Jenner generating all of this market turmoil right now that was Nobel prize winning economist and economics professor at.

professor Schiller Jay Powell fed Robert Schiller Nobel professor Ed Baxter Schiller Bloomberg Jim Bloomberg Yale David Westin Nobel prize chairman JIMBO cell Janet editor Jenner
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:36 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"We just less than an hour before Tokyo becomes onstream. Here is Bloomberg's krizner Russia. It looks like we had a bit of positivity on indications that a trade deal between the US and China may be incite vice-premier Lee. Ho unexpectedly attended the first day of talks in Beijing. We're gonna unpacked a trade story in a moment. One of the curious things in the US session small-cap outperforming in a day that was clearly about risk on. It's a curious move since small caps had been the place for refuge during the height of US China trade tensions. We're going to try to get some answers for you. From some of our guest here on daybreak Asia. Dow industrial average picking up about four tenths of one percent on the day S and P five hundred higher by seven tenths. Nasdaq composite jumps nearly one point three percent. We also had long term interest rates rising a bit continued a hangover, I guess you could say from what had been regarded as dovish commentary by fed chair. Jay powell. On Friday, the ten year treasury last quoted at two sixty nine in yield terms, although Yale professor, Robert Schiller said the market's really overreacted to Powell saying that the fed is not on a preset tightening path the dollar down Bloomberg dollar spot index at its lowest level since about October. We were weaker by four tenths of one percent more a people of the position that the fed is willing to postpone some rate hikes and the yen weakened a bit too against the greenback. One hundred sixty seven right now in dollar-yen that sets us up for a little positively in the Tokyo market right now in Sydney ASX two hundred higher by one tenth of one percent, Bryan. So we may have over read the optimism Doug about the fed. That's according Robert Schiller, and what about the US China trade talks and the possibilities there. Well, we're saying today, we're reporting that there are some signs of some possible progress vice-premier Leo hush showed up at what was expected to be just mid level talks in Beijing and commerce secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC. There's a very good chance. The United States will get a settlement including China. Buying more US, soybeans and liquefied natural gas, Donald Straszheim senior managing director ever core. ISI? Well, he thinks that a framework for an agreement can be reached. But tech an intellectual property are potential sticking points. China's not going to say, let's emphasize towels and t shirts and cheap plastic showers lepers, they wanna do check. So that's not going to change. So how will we know if they're making progress? Stephan Seelig, a former under secretary of commerce, and international trade says let's see if they schedule more meetings soon, you would imagine a Chinese.

fed China US Robert Schiller Tokyo Beijing Bloomberg Jay powell Asia Stephan Seelig Dow onstream Russia ISI Lee Ho under secretary Yale
"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:26 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg best. I'm June Grosso. And I'm Ed Baxter. Stocks got off to their worst new year. Start in years, and then came roaring back on Friday after powerful jobs numbers and comments from fed chairman Jay Powell, saying he's listening carefully to the markets. So Jim Bloomberg's David Westin. And Alix steel spoke with Robert Schiller Nobel prize winning economist and economics professor at Yale. What did you make of what Jay Powell said, what's it about face more or less about the extent to which the fed would listen to the markets? I think Paul is among the most carefully chosen words. The person that I know very reasonable, man. And the idea that that would swing markets is the sign of over excitement that some sorry. He just said the most eminently reasonable thing that we are going to wait and see will adjust the reason the Justice they made where small and in line with expectations. There's nothing there. I think it was driving the market is a more broad long-term narrative that is not the capsulated by anything that has said. But professor Schiller was a one part of what he said, which was differ, forty just said a month before and that had to do with the so-called autopilot on the rolling off of the balance sheet as we're the size of the money supply the quitting. The marketplace. Wasn't that a change when he said, you know, what we will take a look at that as well. Didn't sound like we're on autopilot anymore. Well know, we're getting that are. I think that going back to Janet. Yeah. There was always this reasonable statement that we will adjust as things change. So then learning is not my department. But I think that there is a there's a general sense of crisis developing, and that is what's on people's mind. That's making them remember things like the financial crisis almost ten years ago. Right. So that is definitely a severe backlash. I mean, you definitely have PTSD right? If you were trading in two thousand and eight so with that do are we going to expect then were volatility more with the action? Well, that set us up for this year, if the market's responding so sensitively in so motionlessly to very benign statement from pal. We're talking college here now. And this is something that economists have difficulty forecast, we're not very good at as you must know forecasting the market. We can forecast volatility volatility has been much higher. We were surprised just a couple of years ago. That volatility was so low. And now it's high again. And so what what do we do? What can we forecast volatility, and I think that the the past crises we had two big market drops in the twentieth century one at the beginning of the two thousand and one after the financial crisis. Those are memories that are rebounding in people's minds right now, we tend to think of the last crisis and wonder if it will repeat itself. That doesn't mean that I can predict any such it depends on feedback. Nearly ends of people looking at these stories and looking judging each other's reactions, but professor Schiller when you go back to those two earlier crises. There were underlying reasons there were if not bubble something that was pretty close to a bubble in both instances once in the tech area and the other in housing, do you see those sorts of situations in the economy right now. Well, we've seen big increases in housing prices. And in stock prices are s. S? Logic Kaye Scholer index has shown one of the biggest booms in history. In fact, I recently ruined one of my editor op, Ed it's the third largest housing, boom. Since twenty twelve is the third largest housing boom since eighteen ninety. Well, there's some ambiguity about exactly that. But that's more or less. Incorrect statement and and the stock market, boom. Since two thousand nine has been also quite dramatic this up for an atmosphere that wonders if substantially speculative, and that kind of wondering is Jenner is generating all this market turmoil right now that was Nobel prize winning economist and economics professor.

professor Schiller Jay Powell fed professor Ed Baxter Bloomberg June Grosso Jim Bloomberg Robert Schiller Nobel David Westin Nobel prize Kaye Scholer chairman Yale Alix steel Paul Janet
"robert schiller" Discussed on 760 KFMB Radio

760 KFMB Radio

02:31 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on 760 KFMB Radio

"And ninety cents below that current price and. I know you said you found this company when doing research on bees? But seems like this industry is kinda overpriced. Now, I love visa and MasterCard. I think they are great businesses, but they're just way too pricey right now. And we we actually have a thing that we show people that come in and potential clients a chart that goes back with one hundred and eighteen seventy from Nobel prize winner, Robert Schiller showing that over history. It never makes sense to overpay for a company. So that's why they had to say stay away. All right. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you. Mike have a good one. Bye. All right. Yeah. Chaso important. I mean, we've talked about this over and over again doesn't mean next week. We'll be right. But when you overpaid for businesses consistently you will get burned over time. And the thing that people often confuse is because just because we say don't buy the stock that doesn't mean as a bad business. I mean, kind of jumping ahead here. But it looks like our next caller wants to talk about apple. And we said apple at two twenty five great business. Just overpriced. Yeah. That's what happens over the course of history is you're going to have these businesses that that you get all emotional about and the stocks become way way too expensive. Again, they're going to be a good business. They could still grow their sales and earnings breath. They don't grow at the rate that Wall Street's expecting that stock price is going to have big big problems. I can Ford so you have to sometimes distinguish the stock price from the business you have to evaluate. What is that company really worth? And has that stock price trading below that company is truly worth right? And also do I mean, we're talking about Sears JC Penney. He's coming been holding on for years, and we said before stay away from but it takes years for this to happen. I mean, one thing I would love to tell we've we've got a new numbers in for the last ten years where portfolio let area I don't think. I can't. So I'm not gonna risk it again, very proud of those numbers. And again, it takes time to build that numbers. It takes time to actually be patient to do that. But stay away from these high flyers and do not overpay for anything. I think there's a. Saying from Warren Buffett or somebody something about overpaying. I maybe we'll think about during the break down time for a out when we come back. We got let's see his Paulin Escondido Jim in San Diego. Richard in point. Loma you and call phone number one eight hundred seven six zero k f m b that's one eight hundred seven six zero five three six two. You are listening. Smartvestor your Brennan chase on AM seven sixty cave and be.

apple MasterCard Paulin Escondido Jim Nobel prize Warren Buffett Robert Schiller Brennan Mike Sears San Diego Richard Ford one eight hundred seven six ze ten years
"robert schiller" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM

WCBM 680 AM

06:28 min | 3 years ago

"robert schiller" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM

"It's a mouthful not glad we head penny record that force. So wait got Christmas. Do you go you go to your dad's? What are you guys pretty much a traditional old school Christmas for the Kaufman family? We have Christmas Eve dinner at my at my dad's house, go to services that evening, and then, you know, Christmas day, it's at my house since wide open. Everybody's opening gifts and carrying on as the kids. Grow up. My son Ryan who is in the air force in New Mexico and his wife, Laura. Won't be in this year. Shame. We're lucky. Both our kids are gonna be at being town and at the same time with their significant others, and they're all staying at the house, and that's good. And none of us have any grandchildren yet. Not yet. But that's a common around the corner. Sure. Hope so right. So Terry rod you guys just got back from your annual Christmas trip to New York City. Let's talk about that a little bit. Oh, yeah. We had a blast every year. How long have you been doing this Tony twenty five years or so at least it goes by? I mean and go up to New York, we usually stay. Well, we always say midtown Manhattan. And we'll go to show we do do Fifth Avenue. We do all the windows. Bergdorfs bergdorfs have birds. Know I was talking with clients when we were young and we used to go downtown Baltimore. Now, my gosh, we get in Howard street and look the windows in the department stores. I mean downtown Baltimore was like going down to well. It wasn't as big as Fifth Avenue. But it was it was pre you'll come on. It was nice. Fun. I remember as a kid the monkeys and the window playing their music, man. Now you to both. You're both young at heart though. Right. I'm sure you're young. Okay. That out there. We'll tell you worked at Stewart's worked at the head company. But that was a big deal. But anyway, so New York it anyway. No, it's not Manhattan. But but it was a lot of fun. But we did Rockefeller Center. We did the tree. Calcium Mark Chelsea gray restaurant. How about the Trump Tower by Trump Tower? Police are still guarding. Yeah. We went there couple years ago, and what will up Fifth Avenue, and they had a protestors out there the paid protesters that George Soros was paying the people that was that was an inconvenience, but they weren't there this year. Thank God good financial way. But we had such a good time. Everybody got to pick what they wanted to do. So there were six of us. So we did a lot of different man. I did a museum. We did a museum. We went to church. We went to mass at the old Saint Patrick's cathedral, usually get a massive the new that new. The original Saint Patrick's cathedral, which is in Greenwich Village. That's pretty cool. Michael's twenty. You've been doing this now twenty five years. I went up there the kids were young, right? Oh, yeah. That was three years old. Oh, we I started doing that had a bliss at it's good. But anyway, let's get back to our show. So. So much risk and volatility in the mart. Why are we seeing so much risk and volatility in the markets will one big reason can be attributed to a single indicator that I like to watch very closely. It's the Schiller price index. Robert Schiller won the Nobel prize in comics, and he's got this index to measure things like volatility instead of getting technical. Let's keep it simple. And put it in some terms that we can all understand. Now. Imagine you have a favorite bottle of wine. You go to a restaurant you go to a store, and you wanna treat yourself you pick up a bottle at the store and the wind isn't extravagant a pricey. But it's pretty consistent. It's a good value. Let's say it's sixteen dollars a bottle. Now, imagine you're at the grocery store, and now you decide to pick up a bottle to share with your friends. Now, you get the shelf and grab one. Now, the price is nineteen dollars a bottle. Whoa. What happened? Why did the price go up? Well, it must be supply and demand you say to yourself. Well, I suppose people are catching onto how good this wine is and more and more people are buying it and pushing the price up. Oh, well, it's still a tasty wine, and it's only three dollars more. So you buy well, months go by and you're celebrating. So you head down to the market you pick up your favorite wine. But this time you really taken back because you approach the shelf, and you see your favorite wine. You can't believe what you're saying. It has to be mistake. Instead of sixteen dollars a bottle now it's twenty eight dollars a bottle. Well, how could this be? It's the same vantage same vineyard same blend. Everything is the same. It went from sixteen dollars to nineteen dollars. And now, it's twenty eight dollars. Well, maybe it's time to start looking for otherwise, maybe just as delicious. But much better value. Now, I share the story because that's exactly what's happened in the stock market again, one of the most valuable market forecasting tools that we used to help determine if stocks are on sale fairly priced or ridiculously expensive is the Schiller PE ratio named after Robert Schiller who won that Nobel prize in economics. You see the fare cost of stocks is really sixteen dollars near the stocks are fairly priced when this chiller PE ratio is around sixteen. Here's the rub. We are nowhere near that price. Stocks are currently at twenty eight dollars just like that bottle of wine. So maybe it's time to start looking at other options that may be Justice delicious. But a better value. You follow what I'm saying here? But the shoulder PE ratio was really high right now, and you can actually go online and look up his Chartier. The only time it's been higher is back in December of nineteen ninety nine and that was right before the dot com. Bubble burst and the market took a big hit for almost two years. So you got to prepare for this stuff..

Robert Schiller Nobel prize Manhattan New York Baltimore Trump Tower Saint Patrick's cathedral Schiller New Mexico New York City Rockefeller Center Ryan Kaufman Laura George Soros
Goldman Sachs doesn't see a recession in our immediate future

The Ray Lucia Show

00:53 sec | 3 years ago

Goldman Sachs doesn't see a recession in our immediate future

"This is the Ray Lucia show. Talk show in America, the help to make better money moves right here on business talk radio helping you along the way, and I'll tell you what a very interesting show planned for today. Goldman Sachs I up little sign of recession for the next three years. Now, I don't know. Goldman Sachs knows what they're talking about. I suspect they do. I like that. I like the fact that Goldman Sachs does not see a recession. They say a recession is muted and below average even three years from now. There's only thirty six percent chance of recession. You know, what that means party goes on folks, the party goes on and Tolman? Should know. I'm being a little bit facetious there because they don't. I've talked about the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratios predictability in the past on how market returns do and we have found that to be flawed. If you go back to two thousand sixteen and you looked at the C A P ratio. The Robert Schiller CAP predictable ratio. Stocks aren't supposed to be doing anything. Right now in two thousand seventeen of course, a banner year twenty eight not looking so bad either. So when I read these headlines, I put everything in perspective.

Goldman Sachs Ray Lucia Tolman Robert Schiller America Three Years Thirty Six Percent
As students balk at debt, colleges offer to take salary share

Bloomberg Markets

02:10 min | 3 years ago

As students balk at debt, colleges offer to take salary share

"Thanks Martin now. With our other top stories I'm Joe Schneider Bloomberg has learned that York capital management has. Offered as much as three hundred fifty million dollars to buy abroad group stakes in its private equity funds York, is trying to beat out three. Other bids for the embattled Dubai buyout firm slumbers as looking at selling stakes in oil fields that it, accrued alongside clients who implored the company, to help drill wells and manage production just months after a one billion dollar acquisition of Canadian oil and gas wells that rankled. Investors the company's little known slumber j. production management unit is seeking to exit some investments in producing assets President Trump lashed out. Today China and, the European Union thing they have been manipulating their currencies and undermining America's competitive edge. Yell. University sterling, professor of, economics Robert Schiller spoke with Bloomberg about the president's tweet I. Don't know where this. Confidence is going Also the US, does not encourage autocrats like other countries have in. The past he's got a lot of enemies So it's a very unstable situation for the stock market I. Think even though volatility is down Volatility it's actually a risky time to be in the market President Trump is breaking with decades of tradition that president avoid commenting directly on the dollar or. The path of US monetary policy as more students balk. At the debt load face after graduation some colleges are. Offering an alternative will pay, your tuition if you offer us a percentage of your future salary we hear more from Bloomberg's Lisa parental Norwich university in. Vermont is the latest schools, to offer this type, of contract known as an income share agreement in contrast with traditional loans. Students with these arrangements pay back a percentage of their salary for a set period of time those touting the program say they give colleges greater incentive to help. Students, find high earning jobs after graduation income share agreements where. I proposed in the, nineteen fifties now nearly thirty schools across the country are offering the. Program the terms can vary notably the length of the. Agreement and the salary percentage most agreements.

Joe Schneider Bloomberg President Trump York Donald Trump United States Martin Dubai Vermont Lisa Parental Norwich Universi European Union China America Robert Schiller Professor Three Hundred Fifty Million Do One Billion Dollar