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"robert hetzel" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:21 min | 1 year ago

"robert hetzel" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I'm Karen Moscow and futures this morning little change S&P and down futures anyway NASDAQ futures are lower down about 32 points right now Ten year treasury down 1530 seconds yields 2.91% and a yield on the two year 2.54% And it's 9 18 on Wall Street time for your daily Bloomberg crypto update with the latest in crypto news here's Bloomberg's Anita young ranita Karen right now Bitcoin is trading around 41,000 Cryptos are rebounding from a sell off today And in the news Bloomberg sources say the sandbox is considering raising fresh funds at evaluation of more than $4 billion It's now looking to raise about $400 million Institutional crypto platform front financial is making its public debut on the Canadian market today with a $6 million IPO offering just four years after it was founded That's in Canadian dollars by the way about 4.8 million in U.S. dollars and the company is valued around 55.4 million U.S. dollars which is around CA$70 million Meantime got a question for you Does a digital ticket that's only useful for redeeming a pair of Nikes itself become a product if it prompts people to pay hundreds more than the shoes actually cost Now that's the question at the center of a Nike NFT suit in the court's answer could have huge implications in this early wave of intellectual property cases involving NFTs And that's your Bloomberg crypto update live in New York I'm renita young Bloomberg radio Carrie All right we need to thank you and that's a Bloomberg business flash I would point out that the 1994 cycle that one was successful and did set up the U.S. economy for a stellar second half of the 1990s And in that cycle there was a 75 basis point increase at one point So I wouldn't rule it out but it's not my base case here James bullard stopping the economic world yesterday with the measured comment on unmeasured pulse Sweeney measured his 25 basis points 50 is enough to make Michael McKee go gray Sure 75 beeps is original Michael joins us right now How original is a three quarters of a percentage point pop Wow Is this Arthur birdsey in or do we go back to mister echols It's Alan green spanier Did he do it Yes Jim bullard pointed out in defending the idea of doing a 75 He said we have done that before And that was in 94 when they raised rates 300 basis points within a year and didn't have any effect on the economy We went into a very strong recovery And so he's arguing that that's what we need to do today It's really apologized because I know Tom told you there's no math on this show Right But it's really math If you want to get to 350 you got to do some significant increases to get that much within a year Okay so the media financial media is going to focus on the housing market Woe is me We're going to wonder what Apple computer shares are going to do What's it do to business I brought this up this morning The equation Y equals C plus I plus G plus X in trade What is a big lift and rates do Do we know We don't know this time because it's an unusual situation Not only are we in a time period where we have strong growth at the moment and extraordinary demand for people we have still strong consumer demand So companies are still looking to spend especially to reinforce their supply lines but interest rates are so low and I talked with John Williams about this last week on Bloomberg TV and radio that it probably won't have a huge effect on their decision making their balance sheets are strong their debt levels are not too high And so you know does two and a half percent or even three and a half percent matter as much in 1994 they went to 6% So is it going to change their investment decisions It'll change what consumers do We've already seen a drop off in mortgage applications and we've seen a drop in new car sales but will it change business investment It's hard to say Michael when we started this whole conversation of the fed pivoting to a more hawkish position several months ago I think we were talking about three maybe four rate hikes this year now I'm looking at W IRP and I've got upwards of 9 or ten through February What happened That one quickly Inflation kept rising Jim bullard kept talking and we've seen the markets price they're sort of pricing a bullard premium into the markets here and that we're seeing that this morning with the big rise in the two year yield The interesting thing though is there's still behind where Jim is when you look at the combined estimate for by the end of the year markets at 2.4% where bullets at three and a half So somewhere in there we need another hundred basis points Where do you think we have to really take recession risk Seriously Are we at that point now or do we are we have some room to go here Because we're hearing more and more about that from economists and fund strategists that it's in their 23 forecast Yeah well here's what I would say When you guys have guests on who call for a recession ask them what are the mechanics How are we going to get a recession Because a lot of people say well the fed's going to break something What are they going to break One of the differences in this recovery aside from the speed of it has been that there were no real imbalances in the economy going into the recession It was pandemic caused So what is it that's going to go bad that the recession calls anticipate we had a release from the Fannie Mae folks today Doug Duncan's group And he's calling for recession now in 2023 but he's basing it on a real drop in home sales You're the only one that really knows my act I've never had an original thought Make knows I've read everything the historians of the Richmond fed have ever read The giant Thomas Humphries and Robert hetzel from years ago have so goes back to Arthur burns who somewhat like Greenspan was more business driven than economics driven And with all sorts of theories that go back to Wesley Clair Mitchell and we don't need to get into all the history part of it But today you and I know we're completely wrapped up in the parlor game of rate dynamics Are people like bullard and Dudley saying you just can't look at rate dynamics You've got to look at the rest of a holistic American business Yeah and throw Larry summers into that list And you've got a group of people who are formed by past experience shall we say the arthropods The birds years Now a lot of people say inflation dynamics have changed And one of the debates on the fed among the fed officials is do we go back to the disinflationary impact of overall economics before the pandemic when the pressure was on to keep prices down The Walmart effect that became the Amazon effect Do we go back to that You should come out more often Yeah That's a shortcut Michael McKee thank you so much What is not asking questions I still can't get over it He's so known at the fed when they do questions They just go Mike What do you got What do you got Mike McKee running all over economic coverage and just absolutely vital in these tumultuous times Social screen It was all green All red It's red and green in the equity markets The two year yield good morning 2.53% We had a 3% print on the 30 year bond This is Bloomberg With the cost of living going up across the country you deserve a solution that offers some change BJ's Wholesale Club members can save an extra 50 cents.

Bloomberg Jim bullard Karen Moscow Anita young ranita Karen Michael McKee renita James bullard Michael joins Arthur birdsey mister echols Alan green spanier U.S. Bitcoin